- Battle For The Arctic: Russia To Install New Missile Warning Systems To Monitor New Frontier
Battle For The Arctic: Russia To Install New Missile Warning Systems To Monitor New Frontier
In a continuing story from last month, Russia continues to establish military dominance in the Arctic region, where $35 trillion worth of natural resources could be hiding underneath the ocean floor.
Two new early warning radar systems will be operational in northern Russia by 2022, the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation said, also reported by Sputnik News.
The defense Ministry said the Voronezh radar system would be installed in the Komi Republic and the Murmansk region in northern Russia. The radar systems are expected to become operational by 2022, will monitor Arctic airspace for ballistic missile attacks, and monitor aircraft in the region.
“Work continues on the construction of new radar stations for the missile early warning network in the Komi Republic and the Murmansk region. These works are planned to be completed in 2022,” the ministry said.
The radar systems have a range of 3,700 miles, enough distance to monitor planes in parts of Alaska.
Russia already has seven Voronezh radar systems in operation. By 2022, there could be as many as 9 to 11 across the country.
The first Voronezh system was constructed in Lekhtusi near St Petersburg in 2005 and was declared “combat ready” in 2012.
Here’s a list of the current operational Voronezh systems, along with ones that are in development.
Last month, we reported that the Russian Northern Fleet deployed a new S-400 Triumph system on the Novaya Zemlya archipelago in the Arctic.
Russia has been aggressively expanding its military presence in the Arctic in the last several years. It has also been increasing exploration activities in the region, such as oil and gas and mineral extraction.
Washington has widely criticized Moscow for its increased presence in the Arctic.
Responding to criticism, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Moscow isn’t intimidating anyone, noting that increased defense capabilities in the Arctic are to protect its assets.
Russia and China are establishing the “Polar Silk Road” in the Arctic as warming temperatures give way to new shipping lanes and economic opportunities.
The Arctic is home to at least 20-25% of the world’s untapped fossil-fuel resources, along with minerals, including gold, silver, diamond, copper, titanium, graphite, uranium, and other rare earth minerals.
Russia is aggressively militarizing the Arctic ahead of the next global military conflict that could involve countries fighting over Arctic resources. The first country to secure dominance in the Arctic could be the next global superpower.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/07/2019 – 02:45 - Who's Afraid Of Scandinavia's Crime Statistics?
Who’s Afraid Of Scandinavia’s Crime Statistics?
Authored by Judith Bergman via The Gatestone Institute,
In Sweden, discussing who is behind the current crime epidemic in the country has long been taboo. Such a statistic has only been published twice by the Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention (BRÅ), in 1996 and in 2005. In 2005, when BRÅ published its last report on the subject, “Crime among people born in Sweden and abroad,” it contained the following note:
“Critics have argued that new results can be inflated, taken out of context and misinterpreted and lead to reinforcing ‘us and them’ thinking. There is every reason to take such risks seriously. However, BRÅ’s assessment is… that a knowledge-based picture of immigrant crime is better than one based on guesses and personal perceptions. The absence of current facts about the crime among the foreign-born and their children facilitates the creation and consolidation of myths. If crime is a problem in certain groups of the foreign-born, then the problems do not disappear unless you highlight them and speak openly about them. A correct picture of the extent and development of the problems should instead be the best basis for analyzing conditions and improving the ability of all residents to function well in Sweden, regardless of ethnic origin.”
Back then, apparently, the authorities still appreciated facts.
Twelve years later, in January 2017, however, Minister of Justice Morgan Johansson flatly refused to publish statistics about the ethnic origins of criminals in Sweden. According to Johansson:
“[Studies] have been done both in Sweden in the past, and there are countless international studies that all show much the same thing: That minority groups are often overrepresented in crime statistics, but when you remove socio-economic factors, it [the overrepresentation] almost completely disappears. So the political conclusions that I need to make, I can already make with existing international and Swedish studies.”
Johansson, who in addition to being Minister of Justice also serves as Minister for Migration and Asylum Policy, was not alone in his views. When Swedish Television asked the political parties in the Swedish parliament, the majority said that they did not think such a statistic was needed.
This summer, however, in the continued absence of any forthcoming public statistics on such an extremely important public issue, a private foundation, Det Goda Samhället (“The Good Society”) took it upon itself to produce these statistics in a new report, Invandring och brottslighet – ett trettioårsperspektiv (“Immigration and crime – a thirty-year perspective”). All the raw data in it were ordered from and supplied by BRÅ. The raw data from BRÅ can be accessed here.
According to the new report by Det Goda Samhället:
“For the first time now, more crimes — in absolute terms — are committed by persons of foreign background than by persons of Swedish origin… The most crime-prone population subgroup are people born [in Sweden] to two foreign-born parents.”
The report concludes:
“In the more than thirty years that the surveys cover, one tendency is clearer than all others, namely that the proportion of the total amount of crimes committed by persons with a foreign background is steadily increasing… During the first of the investigated periods, 1985-1989, persons with a foreign background accounted for 31 percent of all crimes. During the period 2013-2017, the figure had risen to 58 percent. Thus, people of Swedish origin now account for less than half, 42 per cent, of the total crime in Sweden, despite constituting 67 per cent of the population surveyed.”
In 1996, in its first report on the issue, BRÅ disclosed (p. 40) that, “The general picture from foreign studies of immigrants’ children’s crime is that they have a higher crime rate than first-generation immigrants. That is not the case in Sweden”. According to the new report, it is the case now, and that is perhaps the greatest indictment against Swedish integration policies of the past 30 years: the policies clearly do not work.
Another notable conclusion of the report is the increase in crimes committed by foreign-born non-registered persons in Sweden — these include illegal immigrants, EU citizens and tourists. The crimes this group has committed have increased from 3% in the period 1985-89 to 13% in 2013-17.
The report has largely been ignored by the Swedish press and political echelons, apart from a few exceptions, such as the local newspapers Göteborgs-Posten and Norrköpings Tidningar.
In Norway, recently, a report about the overrepresentation of immigrants and their descendants in crime statistics was ordered from Statistics Norway, by Fremskrittspartiet (FrP), which forms part of the Norwegian government. “We had known that immigrants are overrepresented in these statistics, but not [by] so much” said FrP immigration policy spokesman Jon Helgheim.
“For example, if we use the unadjusted figures… Afghans and Somalis are charged five times more for violence and abuse than Norwegians. Adjusted for age and gender, the overrepresentation is almost triple… Most immigrants are not criminals, but when the immigrant population is overrepresented in almost every crime category, then there is a problem that we must dare to talk about”.
According to Dagbladet, FrP has, for years, been calling for detailed statistics on crimes perpetrated by immigrants and children of immigrants. In 2015, the party commissioned data from Statistics Norway, but the agency refused to compile crime statistics based on immigrants’ country of origin.
Two years later, Statistics Norway published research showing that immigrants were strongly overrepresented in the crime statistics, but the report was not detailed enough, according to FrP, which ordered a new report, now available. According to Dagbladet, the new statistics “show that immigrants from non-Western countries are overrepresented in 65 out of 80 crime categories. In 2017, 7.1 per cent of Norway’s population were immigrants from a non-western country.”
According to Dagbladet, the new statistics also show that, “The largest overrepresentation [is] in violence and abuse in close relationships.”
“Non-Western immigrants and their descendants are charged with family violence eight times as often as the rest of the population. In total, 443 persons were charged per year on average during the period 2015-2017, [and] 35 per cent (155) of those charged were from a non-western country or had a non-Western background. Only half of those charged with abuse in close relationships were what SSB [the statistical bureau] calls the rest of the population… Africa, Asia, Latin America, Oceania except Australia and Europe outside the EU and the EEA are considered non-Western countries.”
According to Dagbladet, men from the Palestinian Authority and Somalia are charged with violence and abuse three times more often than Norwegian men.
FrP has been accused by its political opponents of ordering these statistics specifically for municipal elections that took place in Norway on September 9, 2019. Dagbladet asked Helgheim whether using these statistics was “cynical.” Helgheim responded:
“No, it’s not cynical at all. This is very relevant for the citizens to know something about. It would be a failure of FrP not to do everything we can to inform voters of what are realities and facts. Our opponents constantly criticize us for pulling the immigration card… I can find no explanations other than that those who do not want this to be known also do not want to know about the consequences of immigration to Norway.”
In Denmark, unlike Sweden and Norway, the publication of such statistics in itself is fairly uncontroversial. The Danish statistical bureau, Statistics Denmark, publishes them as a matter of fact every year and they are publicly available to everyone.
According to one of the latest such reports, “Immigrants in Denmark in 2018,” as reported by Berlingske Tidende in April:
“The figures show that crime in 2017 was 60% higher among male immigrants and 234% higher in male non-Western descendants than the entire male population. If one takes into account, for example, that many of the descendants are young, and Statistics Denmark does so in the report, the figures are 44% for immigrants and 145% for descendants, respectively. If further corrected, for both age and income, of immigrants and descendants from non-western countries, the figures are 21% and 108%”.
As for the nationality of the criminal migrants, Berlingske Tidende reported:
“At the top of the list are male Lebanese who, as far as [their] descendants are concerned, are almost four times as criminal as average men, when [the figures are] adjusted for age. [That is] sharply followed by male descendants from Somalia, Morocco and Syria. The violence index is 351 for descendants from non-western countries. They are 3.5 times more violent than the population as a whole. Descendants from Lebanon have an index of violent crimes of 668 when corrected for age.”
Unless Scandinavian political leaders begin actively to engage with the facts that these statistics describe, the problems are only going to become more intractable — to the point where they might not be solvable at all.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/07/2019 – 02:00 - The US-Iran Silent War Is Suddenly Transformed Into An "Iraq Uprising"
The US-Iran Silent War Is Suddenly Transformed Into An “Iraq Uprising”
Authored by Elijah Magnier, Middle East based chief international war correspondent for Al Rai Media
The last four days have shown that the ongoing US-Iran war is acutely affecting the whole region. This is now evident in Iraq where more than 105 people have been killed and thousands wounded in the course of demonstrations that engulfed the capital Baghdad and southern Shia cities including Amara, Nasririyeh, Basrah, Najaf and Karbalaa. Similar demonstrations could erupt in Beirut and other Lebanese cities due to the similarity of economic conditions in the two countries. The critical economic situation in the Middle East offers fertile ground for uprisings that lead to general chaos.
Iraq has special status due to its position, since the 2003 US occupation of the country, as both an Iranian and as a US ally. Prime Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi up to now has armed himself with article 8 of the constitution, seeking to keep Iraq as a balancing point between all allies and neighboring countries, and to prevent Mesopotamia from becoming a battlefield for conflicts between the US and Iran or Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Notwithstanding the efforts of Baghdad officials, the deterioration of the domestic economic situation in Iraq has pushed the country into a situation comparable to that of those Middle Eastern countries who were hit by the so-called “Arab Spring”.
Fueled by real grievances including lack of job opportunities and severe corruption, domestic uprisings were manipulated by hostile foreign manipulation for purposes of regime change; these efforts have been ongoing in Syria since 2011. Baghdad believes that foreign and regional countries took advantage of the justified demands of the population to implement their own agenda, with disastrous consequences for the countries in question.
Sources within the office of the Iraqi Prime Minister said “the recent demonstrations were already planned a couple of months ago. Baghdad was working to try and ease the situation in the country, particularly since the demands of the population are legitimate. The Prime Minister has inherited the corrupt system that has developed since 2003; hundreds of billions of dollars have been diverted into the pockets of corrupt politicians. Moreover, the war on terror used not only all the country’s resources but forced Iraq to borrow billions of dollars for the reconstruction of the security forces and other basic needs.”
A word on one of the dynamics behind the Iraq protests, namely: youth unemployment. In Iraq, 40% of the country is under 14, and 60% is under 25. Youth unemployment is around 40%. Changing demographics should keep policymakers up at night across the region. pic.twitter.com/NayNpIeR2I
— Ali Al-Saffar (@alialsaffar) October 3, 2019
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“The latest demonstrations were supposed to be peaceful and legitimate because people have the right to express their discontent, concerns and frustration. However, the course of events showed a different objective: 16 members of the security forces were killed along with tens of civilians and many government and party buildings were set on fire and completely destroyed. This sort of behavior has misdirected the real grievances of the population onto a disastrous course: creating chaos in the country. Who benefits from the disarray in Iraq?”
The unrest in Iraqi cities coincides with an assassination attempt against Iran’s Soleimani. Sources believe that the “assassination attempt against the commander of the Iranian IRGC-Quds Brigade Qassem Soleimani is not a pure coincidence but related to events in Iraq”.
“Soleimani was in Iraq during the selection of the key leaders of the country. He has a lot of influence, like the Americans who have their own people. If Soleimani is removed, those who may have been behind the recent unrest may think it will create enough confusion in Iraq and Iran, allowing room for a possible coup d’état carried out by military or encouraged by foreign forces, Saudi Arabia and the US in this case. Killing Soleimani, in the minds of foreign actors, could lead to chaos, leading to a reduction of Iranian influence in Iraq”, said the sources.
The recent decisions of Abdel Mahdi made him extremely unpopular with the US. He has declared Israel responsible for the destruction of the five warehouses of the Iraqi security forces, Hashd al-Shaabi, and the killing of one commander on the Iraqi-Syrian borders. He opened the crossing at al-Qaem between Iraq and Syria to the displeasure of the US embassy in Baghdad, whose officers expressed their discomfort to Iraqi officials. He expressed his willingness to buy the S-400 and other military hardware from Russia.
Abdel Mahdi agreed with China to reconstruct essential infrastructure in exchange for oil, and gave a $284 million electricity deal to a German rather than an American company. The Iraqi Prime Minister refused to abide by US sanctions and is still buying electricity from Iran and allowing the exchange of commerce that is bringing large amounts of foreign currency and boosting the Iranian economy. And lastly, Abdel Mahdi rejected the “Deal of the Century” proposed by the US: he is trying to mediate between Iran and Saudi Arabia and therefore is showing his intention to keep away from the US objectives and policies in the Middle East.
US officials expressed their complete dissatisfaction with Abdel Mahdi’s policy to many Iraqi officials. The Americans consider that their failure to capture Iraq as an avant-garde country against Iran is a victory for Tehran. However, this is not what the Iraqi Prime Minister is aiming at. He is genuinely trying to keep away from the US-Iran war, but is confronted with increasing difficulties.
Video confirms that security forces are shooting live bullets and ammunitions at the protesters in #Baghdad and not toward the air, the security forces have killed at least 93 protestors so far since the beginning of #IraqProtests on Tuesday. #العراق_ينتقض pic.twitter.com/ya7m4LBXWA
— Lawk Ghafuri (@LawkGhafuri) October 5, 2019
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Abdel Mahdi took over governance in Iraq when the economy was at a catastrophic level. He is struggling in his first year of governance even though Iraq is considered to have the fourth largest of the world’s oil reserves. A quarter of Iraq’s over 40 million people live at poverty level.
The Marjaiya in Najaf intervened to calm down the situation, showing its capacity to control the mob. Its representative in Karbalaa Sayyed Ahmad al-Safi emphasises the importance of fighting corruption and creating an independent committee to put the country back on track. Al-Safi said it was necessary to start serious reforms and asked the Parliament, in particular “the biggest coalition”, to assume its responsibility.
The biggest group belongs to Sayyed Moqtada al-Sadr, with 53 MPs. Moqtada declared – contrary to what the Marjaiya hoped – the suspension of his group from the parliament rather than assuming his responsibilities. Moqtada is calling for early elections, an election where he is not expected to gather more than 12-15 MPs. Al-Sadr, who visits Saudi Arabia and Iran for no strategic objective, is trying to ride the horse of grievance so he can take advantage of the just requests of the demonstrators. Moqtada and the other Shia groups who rule the country today, in alliance with Kurds and Sunni minorities, are the ones to respond to the people’s requests, and not hide behind those in the street asking for the end of corruption, for more job opportunities, and improvement of their conditions of life.
Prime Minister Abdel Mahdi doesn’t have a magic wand; the people can’t wait for very long. Notwithstanding their justified demands, the people were “not alone in the streets. The majority of social media hashtags were Saudi: indicating that Abdel Mahdi’s visits to Saudi Arabia and his mediation between Riyadh and Tehran have not rendered him immune to regime change efforts supported by Saudi,” said the source. Indeed, Iraq’s neighbours gave strong indications to the Prime Minister that Iraq’s relation Iran is the healthiest and the most stable of relations with neighbouring countries. Tehran didn’t conspire against him even if it was the only country whose flag was burned by some demonstrators and reviled in the streets of Baghdad during the last days of unrest.
Iraq Predictions:
Protests in Iraq will only get worse.
The authorities will have no answer.
They will continue to overreact.
Leadership in the opposition will emerge.
The opposition will become more political, violent, and international.
— Max Abrahms (@MaxAbrahms) October 5, 2019
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The critical economic situation is making the Middle East vulnerable to unrest. Most countries are suffering due to the US sanctions on Iran and the monstrous financial expenditure on US weapons. US President Donald Trump is trying hard to empty Arab leaders’ pockets and keep Iran as the main scarecrow to drain Gulf finances. The Saudi war on Yemen is also another destabilizing factor in the Middle East, allowing plenty of room for tension and confrontation.
Iraq seems headed for instability as one aspect of the multidimensional US war on Iran; the US is demanding support and solidarity from Gulf and Arab countries to stand behind its plans. Iraq is not conforming to all US demands. The Iraqi parliament and political parties represent the majority of the population; regime change is therefore unlikely, but neighboring countries and the US will continue to exploit domestic grievances. It is not clear whether Abdel Mahdi will manage to keep Iraq stable. What is clear is that US-Iran tensions are not sparing any country in the Middle East.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 10/06/2019 – 23:40 - Airport Customs Agent Badgers Journalist; Won't Let Pass Until He Admits To 'Writing Propaganda'
Airport Customs Agent Badgers Journalist; Won’t Let Pass Until He Admits To ‘Writing Propaganda’
A journalist for Defense One was badgered by a Customs and Border Protection individual while passing through Dulles International Airport on a return trip from Denmark – forcing the newsman, Ben Watson, to admit to writing ‘propaganda’ before he was allowed to pass.
Of note, Defense One is rated as being “Least Biased” by Media Bias/Fact Check, and publishes “well written, well sourced, and highly factual” articles.
Read below for an account of the incident by Defense One‘s Ben Watson and Bradley Peniston.
***
A U.S. passport screening official held a Defense One journalist’s passport until he received an affirmative answer to this repeated question: “You write propaganda, right?”
The incident took place about 4 p.m. on Thursday at Dulles International Airport. News Editor Ben Watson was returning from an assignment in Denmark when he entered permanent resident reentry aisle No. 17 at Dulles. After the Customs and Border Protection official asked the usual question about undeclared fruit or meat, the interaction took an unusual and unsettling turn.
Watson recalls the conversation:
CBP officer, holding Watson’s passport: “What do you do?”
Watson: “Journalism.”
CBP officer: “So you write propaganda, right?”
Watson: “No.”
CBP officer: “You’re a journalist?”
Watson: “Yes.”
CBP officer: “You write propaganda, right?”
Watson: “No. I am in journalism. Covering national security. And homeland security. And with many of the same skills I used in the U.S. Army as a public affairs officer. Some would argue that’s propaganda.”
CBP officer: “You’re a journalist?”
Watson: “Yes.”
CBP officer: “You write propaganda, right?”
Watson waited five seconds. Then: “For the purposes of expediting this conversation, yes.”
CBP officer, a fourth time: “You write propaganda, right?”
Watson, again: “For the purposes of expediting this conversation, yes.”
CBP officer: “Here you go.”
At that point, the CBP officer handed back the passport.
The CBP official’s behavior appeared to violate the spirit, and possibly the letter, of DHS’s internal Directive 0480.1, “Ethics/Standards of Conduct”; DHS Code of Conduct § 102-74.445; and possibly U.S. Customs and Border Protection Directive 51735-013A, “Standards of Conduct.”
Watson has filed a civil rights complaint with DHS.
Update: In an email, a CBP spokesperson said that the agency is aware of and is investigating the “allegation about an officer’s alleged inappropriate conduct at Washington Dulles International airport,” adding that the agency holds its employees accountable and does not tolerate inappropriate comments or behavior. The spokesperson declined to be identified.
In a separate email, a DHS spokesperson said that the agency’s Civil Rights and Civil Liberties office has “received the information and is reviewing it.” The spokesperson declined to be identified.
Over the past year, several journalists have reported being harassed and even detained by U.S. customs agents. In February, CBP officials apologized to a BuzzFeed reporter who was aggressively questioned upon entering New York’s JFK Airport. In June, freelance reporter Seth Harp described his hours-long detention by CBP officers in the Austin, Texas, airport. In August, British journalist James Dyer said he was harassed as “fake news” by a CBP agent at Los Angeles International Airport. “He wanted to know if I’d ever worked for CNN or MSNBC or other outlets that are ‘spreading lies to the American people,’ ” he tweeted, per a Washington Post story that links to other instances of CBP harassment of journalists.
The Post also noted that in April, the United States’ ranking in the annual World Freedom Press Index dropped for a third year in a row. It classified the treatment of journalists in the United States as “problematic,” a first in the 17 years the report has been issued. The report’s authors attributed the decline “to President Trump’s anti-press rhetoric and continuing threats to journalists,” the Post reported at the time. Watson, who writes the D Brief newsletter and produces the Defense One Radio podcast, said that he’d never before encountered a CBP officer who’d tried to extract a statement in this way. And he noted that the incident was particularly striking in the wake of his reporting trip, during which Danish officials had voiced concerns about a global decline in respect for and adherence to a rules-based order, beginning in the United States.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 10/06/2019 – 23:15 - Pat Buchanan Dares To Ask – Is China The Country Of The Future?
Pat Buchanan Dares To Ask – Is China The Country Of The Future?
Authored by Patrick Buchanan via Buchanan.org,
“Who Lost China?”
With the fall of the Nationalist government of Chiang Kai-shek, the defeat of his armies and the flight to Formosa, that was the question of the hour in 1949. And no one demanded to know more insistently than the anti-Communist Congressman John F. Kennedy:
“Whatever share of the responsibility was Roosevelt’s and whatever share was (General George) Marshall’s, the vital interest of the United States in the independent integrity of China was sacrificed, and the foundation was laid for the present tragic situation in the Far East.”
Tragic indeed was the situation. The most populous nation on earth, for which America had risked and fought a war with the Japanese Empire, had been lost to Stalin’s empire.
A year after Peking fell to Mao Zedong, Chinese armies stormed into Korea to drive the Americans back from the Yalu River and back across the 38th parallel, threatening to throw them off the Peninsula.
In the seven decades since October 1949, millions of Chinese have perished in ideological pogroms like the “Great Leap Forward” of the ’50s, and the “Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution” during which President Nixon came to China.
Yet in terms of national and state power over those 70 years, and especially in the last 30 when America threw open her markets to Chinese goods and Beijing ran up $4 trillion to $5 trillion in trade surpluses with the U.S., a new China arose. It was on display this week in Tiananmen Square.
The China of Xi Jinping boasts land- and submarine-based missiles and bombers that provide a strategic deterrent against the United States. Beijing’s conventional forces on land, sea, and in air and space rival any on earth.
Since Y2K, its economy has swept past that of Italy, France, Britain, Germany and Japan to become the world’s second largest. China is now the world’s premier manufacturing power.
Yet, under Xi Jinping, the mask of benign giant has slipped and the menacing face of 21st-century China is being revealed, for its people, its neighbors, and the world to see.
The Uighurs of west China are being forced into re-education camps to be cured of their tribalist, nationalist and Islamic beliefs. Christians are being persecuted. Tibetans are being replaced in their homeland by Han Chinese. The Communist Party’s role and rule as the font of ideological, political and moral truth is being elevated and imposed.
The Chinese still hold land seized from India 50 years ago. China now claims as sovereign territory virtually all of a South China Sea, which encompasses territorial waters of six nations. It has begun building air, naval and military bases on rocks and reefs belonging to Manila.
China has warned foreign warships to stay out of the Taiwan Strait and has built up its force on the mainland opposite the island, warning that any move by Taiwan to declare independence would be regarded as an act of war. It claims the Japanese-held Senkaku Islands.
In its Belt and Road projects to tie China to Central and South Asia and Europe, China has lent billions to build ports, only to take possession of the facilities when local regimes default on their loans.
But not all is going well for the regime on its 70th birthday.
The people of Hong Kong, who are surely being cheered by many on the mainland of China, have been protesting for months, demanding the liberty and independence for which American patriots fought in our Revolution, not Mao’s revolution.
Nor are the newly prosperous Chinese people fools. They relish the rising power of China and the respect their country commands in the world, but they know it was not Marx, Lenin or Mao who produced their prosperity. It was capitalism. They cannot but be uneasy seeing the freedoms and benefits they enjoy being dissipated in a trade war with the Americans and the new repression issuing from Beijing.
Among the epochal blunders America has committed since the end of the Cold War, three stand out.
The first was our disastrous plunge into the Middle East to create regimes oriented to the West.
The second was the expansion of NATO to the front porch of Russia, driving the largest nation on earth, and one of its most formidable nuclear powers, into the arms of China.
The third was to throw open America’s markets to Chinese goods on favorable terms, which led to the enrichment and empowerment of a regime whose long-term threat to U.S. interests and American values is as great as was that of the Soviet Union in the Cold War.
The question for America’s statesmen is how to cope with the rising challenge of China while avoiding a war that would be a calamity for all mankind. Patience, prudence and perseverance commend themselves.
But the first necessity is to toss out the ideological liberalism which proclaims that David Ricardo’s free trade dogmatism is truth for all nations at all times and that John Locke’s ideas apply to all cultures and countries.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 10/06/2019 – 22:50 - Frost-Apocalypse Set To Sweep Across US, Could Mark End Of Growing Season
Frost-Apocalypse Set To Sweep Across US, Could Mark End Of Growing Season
We are tracking frost and freeze potential US temperature weather maps this weekend that indicate a strong possibility frost-apocalypse is headed for the Pacific, Rocky Mountains, and Midwest regions over the next ten days. This could mean the end of the growing season for many agriculture producing states.
As shown in the EC Operational maps below, a 32°F contour line in the 5-10 day forecast indicates US frost risks could shift from the Northwest too much of the North Central states, which would officially mark the end of the growing season in those areas if confirmed by mid-month.
* * *
Andrei Evbuoma, a meteorologist for NOAA National Weather Service, provides further insight into the frost situation in the US, and what he thinks this could mean for grain prices.
Frost and freeze watches/warnings hoisted for portions of the north-central and Northeast U.S.; weather outlook turns colder across the northern and central U.S. raising risks for frost/freeze and thus upside potential of prices.
On the weather front, frost and freeze watches/warnings are in effect for much of North Dakota, eastern South Dakota, northeastern Nebraska, western Minnesota, northwestern Iowa, a large portion of Upstate New York and Vermont, extreme western Massachusetts, and extreme northern Pennsylvania. The frost and freeze warnings are in effect tonight through Friday morning. The freeze watch is in effect for late Friday night through early Saturday morning. The freeze and frost warnings over North Dakota and Minnesota cover a good portion of spring wheat. However, with much of the crop harvested, the impacts should be minimum. The northwestern portions of the corn and soybean belt will be impacted by the frost and freeze Thursday night/Friday morning. The freeze watch covers a very small portion of corn and soybeans that will not really be able to make any difference. Figure 5 below is an image depicting the areas under a freeze/frost watch or warning.
The weather pattern over the next 10 days or so can be described as progressive/changeable with bouts of both cool and warm air masses. The pattern will be driven by a couple of strong upper level troughs that will pivot around a pinwheeling parent upper low centered over the Arctic Circle near the Queen Elizabeth Islands. These upper level troughs will be associated with strong surface cold frontal boundaries that will spread across Canada and the Lower 48 bringing in intervals of unseasonably cool air. Upper level ridging will bring warm temperatures in between these upper level troughs.
Over the next five days, the first upper level trough will eject out of the western U.S. eastward across the northern U.S. This will bring unseasonably cool air across the Northwest U.S. and Northern Rockies late week into the weekend, across the Plains and Midwest U.S. late weekend into early next week, and finally across the Midwest/Great Lakes into the Northeast U.S. early to mid next week. By early to mid next week, upper level ridging will build over the Northern Rockies and Plains bringing in warmer-than-normal temperatures before the next upper level trough quickly moves into western Canada from Alaska. Figure 6 below is a map from the 12z GFS ensemble depicting the 1-6 day (October 4-9) temperature pattern.
A second upper level trough with cold temperatures from Alaska will be oriented over western/central Canada in the beginning parts of the 6-11 day period. This upper level feature will quickly be moving inbound towards the Lower 48 meaning that the warm-up across the northern, central, and eastern U.S. will be brief. This second upper level trough will not only be stronger than the previous in strength, but will also be larger in size and will have more impact in bringing widespread cooler-than-normal temperatures across the Lower 48. Because this upper level weather feature is forecast to travel further south, unseasonably cool temperatures will encompass the central, southern, and eastern U.S. in the 6-11 day period. The reinforcing shot of cool air coming in behind this second trough will send temperatures as much as 20 degrees below normal across the Northern Rockies by Wednesday. This colder development amongst the forecast models has recently increased prospects of heating demand across the Lower 48. The GFS has been most consistent with this pattern. Figure 7 below is a map from the 12z GFS ensemble depicting the 7-12 day (October 10-15) temperature pattern.
Temperatures look to be on the cooler side across the northern U.S. (especially the Great Lakes and Northeast U.S.) and warmer across the southern U.S. (especially the Southwest U.S.) in the 11-16 day time period with the pattern possibly remaining in a variable/changeable state. Figure 8 below is a map from the 12z ECMWF ensemble depicting the 10-15 day (October 12-17) temperature pattern.
In terms of precipitation, the heat and dryness have set the stage for rapidly developing drought conditions across the eastern and southern U.S. including the southeastern Midwest. These areas have seen week/week increase in drought/dryness. Looking ahead, the pattern overall will transition into a drier pattern from the prior week. There will be chances for precipitation to come across the central U.S. in association with the upper level troughs/associated surface cold fronts. The first chance will come this upcoming weekend. The second chance will come mid to late next week. Figure 9 is a map from the U.S. Drought Monitor depicting areas of drought or abnormally dry conditions.
Figure 10 below is a map showing the seven-day accumulated precipitation forecast (Thursday morning to next Thursday morning) across the Lower 48.
Figure 11 is a map from the 06z GEFS depicting a normal to drier-than-normal pattern across much of the country and a wetter-than-normal pattern over parts of the central U.S. in the 2-8 day time frame (October 4-11).
Figure 12 is a map from the 12z GEFS depicting a normal to drier-than-normal pattern across much of the country in the 9-15 day time frame (October 11-18).
Evbuoma says the cold spell sweeping across agriculture producing states could be bullish for grain prices.
He says, “the weather outlook over the next couple of weeks has gotten colder, the risk of damage to crops not yet harvested have increased (particularly across the northern sections of the grain belt). This combined with the fact that China has been purchasing more soybeans means that upside potential is increasing.”
Tyler Durden
Sun, 10/06/2019 – 22:25 - Luongo: Is Trump The Dude To Break The Woke?
Luongo: Is Trump The Dude To Break The Woke?
Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,
“I like your style Dude… but do you have to use so many cuss words?”
“The fuck you talkin’ about?”
– The Big Lebowski
When Donald Trump won the 2016 election it was obvious to many, including myself, that he could be what Strauss & Howe called, ‘The Grey Champion’ in their seminal book “The Fourth Turning.”
The Grey Champion isn’t perfect. In fact, he’s a strongman. He can be a force for good or evil, depending on the times. At his essence, he is the right person in the right place at the right time to usher in a new era of human society for the next cycle of generations, usually four lasting around 85 years, or one human lifetime.
Past Grey Champions in the U.S have been FDR and Abraham Lincoln. Neither of these men would be people I would consider having been good for the country or, frankly, the world.
But they were ideally placed to shepherd and, most importantly, put into effect the changes demanded by the people as the Prophet Generation (Baby Boomers) gives way to the Nomads (Gen X) who hold the fort until the Heroes (Millenials) decide what comes next, for good or ill.
They were strong enough figures to overcome the enormous forces arrayed against them and, in the end, win out, forcing a new regime into being.
So, looking back over the near three years of Trump has he lived up to this ideal? I don’t think so for a number of reasons but I do think the potential is still there.
Trump’s strengths and weaknesses as a political player have been on full display from the beginning. And he’s made a number of errors which have cost him dearly to this point.
Most of these have to do with foreign policy, which I have outlined in gory detail nearly every day for three years. And it was these deals he’s made on foreign policy, outsourcing it to advisers like H.R. McMaster, John Bolton and James Mattis, to gain time to deal with his domestic enemies that have done the most damage.
I think Trump now sees the traps set for him and how badly they will boomerang on him this election season. He’s begun changing course on issues like Iran, Syria and, yes, Ukraine.
And for this he is now being targeted, quite amateurishly, for removal from office. Of this I’m convinced at this point.
Since Ukraine cuts across so many different narratives of the past few years, going all the way back to 2013 EU accession talks, it is no wonder that President Trump calls to the new Ukrainian President, who isn’t one of ‘our guys’ like Poroshenko was, would be heavily scrutinized.
Anything that sniffed even vaguely like Presidential overreach would be used against Trump to remove him from office. This is the standard Alinsky tactic of accusing your opponent of what you are guilty of to de-legitimize any information that comes out of the investigation.
This tactic is nothing new. It’s all they ever do folks, because Trump has already proven he’s immune to ‘Nuts and Sluts.‘
And this brings me back to my original point, which is that only Donald Trump has the skills, temperament and lack of shame needed to fight this fight the way he has.
Comedian Stephen Crowder made this point recently and I think that rant is worth your fifteen minutes.
It’s nice to see Crowder finally come around and realize what Trump’s true value is to the world. It isn’t his wisdom or his inherent morality. He’s not been sent here by god to save us from the heathen.
He’s not Orange Jesus, as I pointed out ages ago.
He’s just the guy with the right set of skills for his time and place. To combat the incessantly woke and the cravenly corrupt you need a guy narcissist without shame. One who will scrap on the battlefields he knows well, the media, and when given an ounce of leverage will push it to its hilt.
And you need a man ruthless enough to be vindictive.
Trump tried to be magnanimous to Hillary. She repaid him with bile, deceit and three years of hell. His dipping his toe into Ukraine sent all of Washington into veritable apoplexy. Everyone’s got dirty fingers there be it from the coup on the Maidan, to arms sales, gas deals, false flags and, the big one from Trump’s perspective, RussiaGate.
Pat Buchanan, at the start of Trump’s presidency, warned us that Trump was not Nixon. Nixon resigned out of shame and for the good of the office and the country. Trump would not go so gently into that good night.
He was built of different stuff. Right or wrong they would have to drag him out of the Oval Office feet first. And that’s where we are now.
And that trait alone is what makes him still a potential Grey Champion. Because he can beat this impeachment trap that Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Adam Schiff have set for him if he’s smart and if he has the goods to take down the right people.
But at some point Trump will have to stop trying to make a deal with these people and act. He will have to stop trying to get them to like him and use his office as it is written in the Constitution and not let weasels like Schiff and Jerry Nadler define it for him.
If he does that he’ll be The Dude, the man for his time and place. If not, he’ll just be another pretender in a nice suit and his head in a toilet.
* * *
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Tyler Durden
Sun, 10/06/2019 – 22:00 - Chinese Farmers Raise Mutant Pigs The Size Of Polar Bears Amid 'Pig Ebola' Crisis
Chinese Farmers Raise Mutant Pigs The Size Of Polar Bears Amid ‘Pig Ebola’ Crisis
Amid one of the worst food crises in recent memory, Chinese farmers are reportedly trying to breed larger pigs as the African swine fever – less affectionately known as ‘pig ebola’ – has destroyed over 100 million pigs, between one-third and a half of China’s supply of pigs by various estimates, causing pork prices to explode to levels never seen before.
As Beijing scrambles to make up for the lost domestic supply with imports, even desperately waiving tariffs on American pork products in what China’s politicians tried to sell to their population (and Washington) as a “gesture of goodwill”, farmers in southern China have raised a pig that’s as heavy as a polar bear.
Once slaughtered, these giant mutant pigs can fetch a, well, giant price on the market. Here’s more from Bloomberg:
The 500 kilogram, or 1,102 pound, animal is part of a herd that’s being bred to become giant swine. At slaughter, some of the pigs can sell for more than 10,000 yuan ($1,399), over three times higher than the average monthly disposable income in Nanning, the capital of Guangxi province where Pang Cong, the farm’s owner, lives.
Soaring pork prices have encouraged small and large farms to experiment with DIY genetic experimentation, in the name of raising pigs that are about 40% heavier than the ‘normal’ weight of 125 kilos.
High pork prices in the northeastern province of Jilin is prompting farmers to raise pigs to reach an average weight of 175 kilograms to 200 kilograms, higher than the normal weight of 125 kilograms. They want to raise them “as big as possible,” said Zhao Hailin, a hog farmer in the region.
On some large farms, the average weight of pigs at the time of slaughter has climbed from 125 kgs (275 pounds) to 140 kgs (about 310 pounds). Some are pushing to boost weight by another 14% or more.
The trend isn’t limited to small farms either. Major protein producers in China, including Wens Foodstuffs Group Co, the country’s top pig breeder, Cofco Meat Holdings Ltd. and Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co. say they are trying to increase the average weight of their pigs. Big farms are focusing on boosting the heft by at least 14%, said Lin Guofa, a senior analyst with consulting firm Bric Agriculture Group.
But Beijing is understandably pleased by these developments which have boosted farmers’ profits by more than 30%: It has been pushing farmers to boost production to compensate for as much of the shortfall as possible to help combat inflation in the coming years.
As we noted last week, the pork crisis has already cost the Chinese economy some $140 billion at a time when it’s already grappling with slowing growth.
Senior Chinese officials have already warned that the pork supply situation is “extremely severe” and will likely remain that way at least through the first half of next year.
Chinese Vice Premier Hu Chunhua warned that the supply situation will be “extremely severe” through to the first half of 2020. China will face a pork shortage of 10 million tons this year, more than what’s available in global trade, meaning it needs to increase production domestically, he said.
Others are worried that the aftershock of the crisis will last for much longer: “It may be at least 10 years before we get back to the levels of production that we saw coming into this,” said Rabobank senior protein analyst Christine McCracken. “We’re looking at a very long tail on this, that should lead to a lot of incremental demand for U.S. protein going forward.”
Indeed, US food producers couldn’t be more happy by the crisis hitting China’s pork production. Commenting on the state of the pork market, this is what Tyson Food said in its latest earning call:
In our last quarterly call, I talked about the inventories in China being fairly high at that point in time. We do believe that those inventories have come down substantially. We are seeing the price of pork rise pretty significantly, most recently in China as well as poultry and other protein prices. So no surprises on that front. I think the impact will be sometime during our fiscal 2020…. anytime that there is that amount of protein that is lost from a global perspective, there is going to be an impact on price. And whether the United States is a direct supplier to China or whether they source from other countries to the extent that they can, it might be from continents in Europe, it might be South America, it might be in other countries. But that creates backfill opportunities for us. So net disappearance is going to remain the same I think on a global basis. Supply is lower which translates to higher prices. Not only in pork, but I think across the board in our other proteins.
To offset the collapse in China’s pork supply, officials have not only ordered an emergency release from China’s strategic pork supply, but have ordered farmers to resume pig breeding and birthing as soon as possible even though many farmers are still wary about the outbreak, worried that they could lose their entire investment if they start too soon and the virus is still present. Plus, the spread of ‘pig ebola’ has left prices of piglets and breeding sows at record highs, making it more expensive than ever for farmers to restock.
All of this points to raising larger, super-mutant pigs as a possible solution to mitigate risks and boost returns.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 10/06/2019 – 21:35 - The Saudi Crown Prince's Final Option
The Saudi Crown Prince’s Final Option
Authored by Cyril Widdershoven via OilPrice.com,
Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman has been making headlines again these last few days. After giving an interview to CBS in which he admitted the mistakes of the Khashoggi murder last year, a media frenzy started, with a vast lineup of reports linked to the one-year remembrance day of the brutal Khashoggi murder, mainly intended to weaken the position of the Saudi crown prince. Unnamed sources are being quoted stating that MBS’s position is being attacked from all sides, including within the Kingdom.
Since the emergence of MBS as a main power player in the Kingdom, the crown prince has been under fire from his ultra-conservative religious opponents inside Saudi Arabia. More recently, more liberal voices such as former minister of energy Khalid Al Falih have been criticizing some of the Crown Prince’s policies. MBS has responded emphatically to this dissent, first with the Ritz Project and then with the removal of Khalid Al Falih and several other major power players. The strategy currently being implemented is designed to support the long-awaited Aramco IPO, an event that MBS sees as solidifying his power in the Oil Kingdom.
The consolidation of MBS’ power all seemed to be going to plan until the recent drone attacks on Abqaiq. The severity of these attacks seems not to be fully understood by media and analysts as most are still taking the word of Aramco and the Saudi minister of energy as gospel when it comes to the impact. To call the updates coming out of Saudi Arabia optimistic is an understatement, an attack of that size cannot be undone in a matter of days.
And even if the damage done to Abqaiq is technically restored, and Saudi oil is flowing at the same rates as before, the world has changed. We now know that with a small amount of low intensity advanced weapon systems, the heart of the global oil sector can be significantly disrupted. Saudi Arabia’s pivotal position as the main stabilizer of the oil markets has been at best dented or, at worst, destroyed. No repair shop will be able to bring back the unquestioned confidence in Saudi Arabia as the eternal swing producer upon which the security of energy supply can depend. With less than 30 drones and cruise missiles, Saudi’s spare production capacity was removed from the market. And, contrary to what many analysts believe, it is yet to come back online
The Iran-Saudi conflict has entered a new phase, with the real threat of a full-scale conflict. The situations in Iraq and Libya will also suffer from the instability created by this stand of. And despite this instability, Saudi Arabia’s important ally, the United States, has refused to be fully drawn into the conflict. The link between Trump and MBS appears to be weakening as the geopolitical pressure cranks up. Washington appears will to bark but not to bite when it comes to Iran’s actions against Saudi Arabia. U.S. analysts and policy makers don’t seem to understand that this stance not only weakens US influence in the region, but directly opens the doors for opposition to MBS inside of the Kingdom.
Western and Arab media sources have published several stories recently about the growing opposition to MBS inside the Al Saud Royal Family. These reports are undoubtedly true, and MBS is heading for crunch time. The Crown Prince’s future is to be decided in the next couple of months, so very little time remains for opposition players. After the Yemen War quagmire and the damage done in Abqaiq, some royals will undoubtedly try to weaken MBS position. The main issue currently is that here is no real contender available, as most Saudis are still supportive of MBS. The old guard, such as the brother of King Salman, prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz (77), are not favored by the young. Still, MBS has to speed up his passion projects as success is everything when it comes to winning power in Riyadh.
It is not surprising that the recent positive media reports emerging from Saudi Arabia come just before the Davos in the Desert or FII2019 meeting is held. A possible Aramco IPO presentation at FII2019, followed by a 1% listing at the Saudi Tadawul, would put MBS firmly back in the spotlight and weaken any opposition. With the current stalemate in the region, more than 4000 investment funds, sovereign wealth funds and corporations will be sitting in the conference halls of the Ritz, willing to hand over the much needed cash and multibillion projects to solidify MBS’ position.
Open support for MBS will be in place very soon, with Russian president Vladimir Putin expected to head to Riyadh very soon. In stark contrast to the waning Trump-MBS friendship, Putin is openly a big supporter of the crown prince’s strategy and dreams. Russian sovereign wealth fund RDIF and others are flocking to Riyadh’s hotels as further evidence of Russian support. Moscow appears set to capitalize on Washington’s weak response to the recent attacks in Saudi Arabia, and MBS will be eager to take advantage. A closer Saudi-Russian relationship may end up helping to restrain Iran, as the Islamic Republic is heavily dependent on Moscow’s support.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 10/06/2019 – 21:10
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