- Ukraine Foreign Minister Demands More "Weapons, Weapons, Weapons" In NATO Meeting
Ukraine Foreign Minister Demands More “Weapons, Weapons, Weapons” In NATO Meeting
“Weapons, weapons, weapons” is what Ukraine’s government is still demanding of NATO countries, even after the Biden-approved $800 million package last month.
Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba issued the plea after meeting with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in Brussels, stating on Twitter that the “three most important things” for Ukrainians are “weapons, weapons, weapons.”
“Met with Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at NATO HQ in Brussels. I came here today to discuss three most important things: weapons, weapons, and weapons,” Kuleba wrote. “Ukraine’s urgent needs, the sustainability of supplies, and long-term solutions which will help Ukraine to prevail,” he added.
Getty Images Already the Pentagon has agreed to send more Javelin anti-armor systems, also as Stinger anti-aircraft missiles are being supplied, which Moscow sees as a huge provocation, with the war entering its sixth week.
During a press conference in Brussels, Kuleba said his agenda in meeting with NATO leaders remains “simple”…
“We know how to fight. We know how to win. But without sustainable and sufficient supplies requested by Ukraine, these wins will be accompanied by enormous sacrifices,” Kuleba said. “The more weapons we get and the sooner they arrive in Ukraine, the more human lives will be saved.”
Previously, CNN had documented that Kiev is increasingly pushing Washington for more advanced battlefield weapons, especially to take out Russia’s superior tanks and aircraft:
The Defense Department plans to accelerate production of Stinger anti-aircraft missiles and Javelin anti-tank missiles so it can refill its own depleted stocks as it continues to send the vital systems to Ukrainian forces fighting the Russian invasion, according to defense officials.
Ukraine wants 500 Javelin anti-tank missiles and 500 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles delivered from the US daily, according to a recent military assistance wish list. CNN viewed the document that details the items Ukraine believes it needs from the US.
CNN wrote further in an end of last month report: “By March 7, less than two weeks into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the US and other NATO members had sent about 17,000 anti-tank missiles and 2,000 anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine. Since then, that number has certainly increased but an update has not been made public.”
Moscow has warned that it will hold outside powers responsible for instances where Russian troops come under attack by foreign-supplied weaponry – something which has clearly already happened many times.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/08/2022 – 02:45 - Playing Pipeline Politics
Playing Pipeline Politics
Authored by Pieter Cleppe via The Critic.co.uk,
The Gulf countries may not be reliable partners against Russia…
Earlier this month, Syrian president Bashar al-Assad was welcomed in Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates. To the dismay of the United States, the red carpet was rolled out for him, on the anniversary of the uprising against Assad, amid war mongering by his Russian ally in Ukraine.
Just before, British PM Boris Johnson has been on a visit himself to both the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, not only to promote Global Britain, but also in a bid to convince both Gulf states to increase oil production. Johnson was acting as an emissary from the West, after the Gulf countries’ leaders declined to take a call from U.S. President Joe Biden to build international support for Ukraine and contain a surge in oil prices, signalling their unhappiness with the perceived Western lack of support for their security.
These grievances include concerns about Biden’s move to take Yemenite Houthi rebels off of America’s official list of global terrorist groups. Drone and missile attacks on U.A.E. capital Abu Dhabi, launched earlier this year by the Iran-backed rebel group, and the prospect of a restoration of the Iran nuclear deal have added to the U.A.E. and Saudi Arabia’s complaints.
It’s not just refusing to take Joe Biden’s calls, however. More broadly, the Gulf states are hedging their bets on the Ukraine issue. The Emirates abstained during a United Nations vote condemning Russia’s invasion, and the Emirati leader, popularly known as “MBZ”, referred to “Russia’s right to ensure its national security” in a call with Russian President Putin. There has even been speculation that the U.A.E. could help Russia avoid Western sanctions, with Emirati officials reportedly assuring Russians that they will not enforce sanctions unless mandated by the UN — something which Moscow would certainly veto.
On top of that, there is a deal between Russia and the Saudi-led oil cartel, OPEC, which the Saudis and Emiratis are reluctant to abandon, as it was hard-fought in 2020 and involved great concessions from Russia.
The OPEC question will become increasingly important, because the situation on the energy front is dire. The International Energy Agency has warned a global oil supply shock may be coming due to large-scale disruptions to Russian oil supplies, which would drive oil prices to even higher levels than today. While Saudi Arabia isn’t pumping oil at full capacity and has not yet pledged to do so, the U.A.E have promised to push OPEC to pump more oil, but this development has yet to materialize and wasn’t agreed upon with other OPEC members in advance. Despite the talk, actions on the ground further indicate the Emirates are moving away from the West, a shift which is in line with broader trends in the Gulf region.
King dollar no more?
Indeed, the sanctions which have cut off several Russian banks from the SWIFT international payments system and frozen reserves accumulated by the Russian central bank, have renewed debate on the role of the U.S. Dollar as global reserve currency, particularly in the Gulf.
Some have argued that “we are witnessing the birth of Bretton Woods III — a new world (monetary) order centred around commodity-based currencies in the East that will likely weaken the Eurodollar system.” For the moment, however, this remains a minority view, while the general consensus is that there is little alternative to the U.S. dollar in the short- to medium-term.
The lack of trust in China’s currency should stymy Beijing’s hopes of turning the yuan into a global reserve currency. Gold has proven to be a safe store of value, but despite the fiat money of governments being eroded to finance state spending, gold is not used as a regular payment method. The euro is still plagued by its shaky political underpinnings, while it is still an open question whether bitcoin will be able to resist state action banning it, if it will ever be widely adopted in the first place.
King dollar also retains its primacy due to the fact that oil sales are conducted in USD — at least for now. This week, it emerged that Saudi Arabia is considering accepting yuan instead of dollars for Chinese oil sales.
This is likely to be a bluff, or rather a Saudi cry for attention from Washington decision makers. Switching millions of barrels of oil trades from dollars to yuan every day could unsettle Saudi Arabia’s economy given that the Saudi currency is pegged to the dollar. Aides to the Saudi crown prince have apparently warned him of unpredictable economic damage which could result from moving ahead with the plan. It’s not hard to see how trading oil in a currency plagued by rampant capital controls could easily backfire — meaning that Gulf countries abandoning the imperfect dollar umbrella may soon find themselves in stormy weather.
UK faces “tough” talks with Gulf countries
The continued primacy of the U.S. dollar also makes the argument less convincing that Western sanctions against Russia will push into to a separate trading bloc led by China, creating a kind of dichotomy within the global economy. That is unlikely to happen fast. Not only is China far from enjoying the degree of trust required to offer the world’s reserve currency, it’s impossible for Russia to simply replace its trade with the West with Chinese trade, as the volume of Russia’s current trade with the West is simply too high.
The West, however, is determined to reduce that trade. Ahead of his trip to the Gulf, Boris Johnson vowed the world must “starve Putin’s addiction to oil and gas”, adding that “Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are key international partners in that effort.” Then, only one day after Johnson’s visit, UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed pledged, during a visit to Moscow, to cooperate with Russia on bolstering global energy security.
Johnson’s government seems to be wary to embrace fracking, which before Putin’s war helped the United States enjoy gas prices that are only one sixth of the level in Europe. Unless Johnson revisits that stance, the UK has no choice but to become more energy dependent on the rest of the world, particularly petrol-rich states like the Gulf countries. So far, however, it’s unclear whether they’re ready to play ball. With UK talks with Gulf countries over increased oil production labelled “tough” and the Emirates gearing up to water down the effect of Western sanctions on Russia, something’s got to give.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/08/2022 – 02:00 - Does China's Friendship With Russia Really Have "No Limits"?
Does China’s Friendship With Russia Really Have “No Limits”?
By Simon Watkins of OilPrice.com
For several years, China and Russia have been building an alternative world order to that offered by the U.S. and its allies. This was expedited by the unilateral withdrawal of the U.S. in May 2018 from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran, its withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021, and its ‘end of combat mission’ in Iraq in December 2021, among other factors.
China’s strategy to achieve this new world order is one based on incremental advances of power, based around money flowing from its ‘One Belt One Road’ (OBOR) program. However, Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov’s comments before his meeting last week with Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, that Moscow and Beijing are paving the way “towards a multi-polar, just, democratic world order” are too much too soon as far as China is concerned. The widely-publicised remarks have left Beijing needing to be even more careful in how its dealings with Russia are interpreted by the U.S., especially in the energy sector in which high oil prices pose direct economic and political threats to Washington. China stated two weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine that “there is ‘no limit’ to how far Russian and Chinese friendship may go” and signed a swathe of huge oil and gas deals shortly thereafter that provided an additional layer of insulation to both from any U.S. sanctions in the future. However, signalling perhaps that Beijing did not believe that Russia would necessarily launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine before it did so, only a day after the military conflict spread to Ukraine’s major cities, Chinese President Xi Jinping held urgent talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin and advocated peaceful negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. “China was signifying its discomfort over Russia’s military actions, [and] has reiterated that it respects the ‘sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries’,” Eugenia Fabon Victorino, head of Asia Strategy for SEB, in Singapore, told OilPrice.com last week.
At the same time, though, she added, Beijing has refrained from calling Russia’s actions an ‘invasion’, and abstained to vote on a UN Security Council resolution that would have deplored Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. “In addition, so far, China has not indicated an intention to take direct action against Moscow, and has kept trading links with Russia open,” she said. A key reason for this, over and above any ideological aspirations of a new world order is that although Russia accounts for only 2.9 percent of China’s total imports, Moscow did resolutely step up to the plate in 2021 when China faced an energy crunch. “As a result, Russia now accounts for 20.1 percent of China’s total coal imports, and its share of China’s imported crude oil has steadily risen to 15.6 percent by end-2021 from 11 percent in 2014,” highlighted Victorino. Russia’s vital strategic importance to China was bolstered again with the 30-year contract for Russia to supply gas to China through its new Far Eastern pipeline – following the earlier installation of the Power of Siberia-1 pipeline which began pumping supplies in 2019 – as highlighted by OilPrice.com.
“Despite stronger ties between Beijing and Moscow in recent years, there are limits to China’s friendship,” Victorino underlined. “While Russia is an increasingly important source of energy, its total trade with China pales in comparison with China’s trade links with the United States and the European Union [EU],” she said. According to the latest figures, among China’s top trading partners, the EU accounts for 15.3 percent of China’s total trade, followed by the U.S. with 12.5 percent. “As sanctions against Russia mount, there are reports that some of China’s largest state-owned banks are already limiting financing for transactions of Russian commodities,” she told OilPrice.com. “Although sanctions have so far stopped short of Russia’s energy trading, Chinese banks may have already stopped issuing US$-denominated letters of credit related to Russian commodities,” she added. Having said this, she underlined, Chinese yuan-denominated financing for Russian commodities may still be available, albeit with a higher level of scrutiny. “Large Chinese banks would be reluctant to lose access to dollar transactions, in our view, and in the past, China’s big four banks have complied with U.S. sanctions against Iran and North Korea in a bid to maintain access to the dollar clearing system,” she concluded.
The precariousness of the position into which Russia has put China is further evidenced by the fact that increasing fears of U.S. retaliatory measures against Beijing added fuel to the sell-off in Chinese equities in the aftermath of the invasion on the 24th of February. “China will need to make a stronger gesture of neutrality if Beijing wishes to lower the risk of second order political and economic spillovers from the Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Rory Green, head of China and Asia research at TS Lombard, in London, told OilPrice.com last week. “Our view remains that China will comply with the existing sanctions regime and is prioritising three objectives in the current geopolitical turmoil: first, maintaining normal ties with Russia but avoiding aiding the war effort; second, non-alienation of the EU; and, third, avoiding secondary sanctions and economic damage.”
The relative importance of the first objective is now much lower, he said, as Beijing has made efforts to moderate its stance and move closer to European and Western positions. “Following intelligence leaks and U.S. accusations, Chinese officials have sought to clarify Beijing’s stance, with the Chinese Ambassador to the U.S., Qin Gang, writing a Washington Post editorial that underscored Ukraine’s sovereignty and played up China’s neutral position,” he told OilPrice.com. “Also, in a bilateral call, President Xi called on [U.S.] President [Joe] Biden and their respective countries to ‘work for world peace and tranquillity’,” Green underlined, “Additionally, earlier in the week, Xi described the conflict as a ‘war’ for the first time, and Chinese state media have also begun to report less favourably on Russia including coverage of civilian deaths,” he said. “Overall, despite the shared values and Beijing’s reluctance to succumb to Western pressure, we think strategic rationality will dominate,” highlighted Green. “China has indicated a strong preference for avoiding the economic consequences of Russia’s actions and, given the rising growth and market concerns in Beijing, we expect economics to dominate ideology,” he concluded.
Although being seen to comply with U.S. strictures on Russia is important to China, it remains the case that there are several legal and quasi-legal ways for it to continue to import Russian energy in significant volumes, so adding to the overall global supply and affecting oil prices. As analysed in depth by OilPrice.com recently, China has a long history of being able to work around sanctions – ranging across the gamut of legality and beyond – with basic factors working in its favour regarding Russia being the lack of exposure of China’s firms to the U.S. financial infrastructure and to the US dollar, and the direct oil and gas infrastructure between the two countries. It is apposite to note that around the same time as the two huge new oil and gas deals were signed between Russia and China, there were discussions between Gazprom and China National Petroleum Corporation that the contract would be settled in euros to diversify the payment from the U.S. currency.
“As the U.S. dollar becomes more weaponized, there is an incentive to convert more FX reserves into yuan,” underlined SEB’s Victorino. “In the case of Russia, earlier restrictions imposed following the annexation of Crimea in 2014 led to the significant diversification of Russia’s foreign reserves away from U.S. dollars: of the US$643 billion reserves, the share of U.S. dollars has fallen to 16.4 percent as of Q2 2021 from 44.4 percent in 2014, whilst over the same period Russia made cumulative purchases of almost US$78 billion worth of Chinese yuan, meaning that the yuan’s current share is at 13.1 percent,” she said.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/08/2022 – 00:05 - US Air Force Delays Hypersonic Missile Program Over "Flight Test Anomalies"
US Air Force Delays Hypersonic Missile Program Over “Flight Test Anomalies”
While Russia launched hypersonic air-to-ground missiles during the invasion of Ukraine and China flew a hypersonic weapon around the world late last year, the US continues to fall behind the hypersonic curve as a new round of delays were announced by the US Air Force (USAF), according to Bloomberg.
The AGM-183 Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapon (ARRW) was expected to be declared “early operational capability” by Sept. 30. However, according to a USAF statement, those timelines have been pushed back to the next fiscal year.
ARRW, expected to be the Pentagon’s first hypersonic weapon, suffered three consecutive failed tests last year. ARRW’s latest hurdle was two upcoming ground-based booster motor tests by June 30. But, it appears “due to recent flight test anomalies,” the missile test would be shifted out to as late as December with additional tests planned next fiscal year, according to the USAF statement.
“The ARRW production decision remains event-driven and will occur after operational utility is demonstrated through successful system end-to-end flight tests,” the service continued.
Lockheed-Martin’s ability to manufacture and deliver the new weapon appears to be a 2023 story. Western countries have yet to field a hypersonic weapon while the old world order crumbles as a multipolar world emerges, pushing Russia and China closer together.
Perhaps that’s why President Biden is set to unveil a new trilateral security hypersonic pact with the UK and Australia to advance the development of hypersonic weapons.
On Wednesday, Republican Rep. Mike Rogers of Alabama sounded the alarm at the House Armed Services Committee hearing that China has “more troops, ships, and hypersonic missiles than the United States.” Republican Rep. Michael Turner of Ohio said the US needs to increase its hypersonic development.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 04/07/2022 – 23:45 - State Department Memo In Early 2020 Assessed That Lab leak Was Most Likely Origin Of COVID-19
State Department Memo In Early 2020 Assessed That Lab leak Was Most Likely Origin Of COVID-19
Authored by Jeff Carlson and Hans Mahncke via The Epoch Times,
A newly released memo from the U.S. State Department reveals that government officials knew early on that the COVID pandemic likely originated at a lab in Wuhan, China.
That memo, dated April 2020, states that out of five possible origins for COVID, a lab leak was by far the most likely. The memo also suggests that alternative theories had been introduced to prevent a lab leak from being investigated. The memo, which focuses almost entirely on the likelihood of a lab leak, contains a large amount of information that wasn’t known publicly at the time it was written.
Although a lab leak is now widely accepted as a likely origin for the virus, when the memo was written, a concerted effort was underway to discredit that possibility. It also raises the question of what senior State Department leadership—including then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo—knew and why the information was withheld from the public.
According to the newly released memo, the State Department knew as of April 2020 that the central issue surrounded an obsession with collecting and testing a massive amount of virus-carrying bats on the part of the Wuhan Institute of Virology and China’s Wuhan-located Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
The State Department noted that lab testing of the earliest-known patient at the Wuhan Central Hospital in December 2019 determined that the virus was a “Bat SARS-like Coronavirus.” At the time this patient was tested, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) hadn’t disclosed that there was any problem at all.
When they finally acknowledged an outbreak, they initially blamed it on pneumonia. It was only at the end of January that the CCP finally started admitting that COVID-19 was caused by a new virus that was transmitted between humans.
By that time, the virus had already been seeded across the globe and any chance at suppression had been lost. It was during this same period that the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Dr. Anthony Fauci, was made aware of the virus’s likely origin, having been told by a group of scientists whom he was funding that there was a high probability that the virus was engineered.
Although it’s been known since June 2021 that Fauci and the NIH covered up his knowledge of the virus’s origin, the State Department’s early insight into these matters wasn’t fully known until late March 2022, when the transparency group U.S. Right to Know obtained the April 2020 memo.
Two Labs
The memo, titled “An Analysis of Circumstantial Evidence for Wuhan Labs as the Source of the Coronavirus,” comprises five pages and is written in military BLUF style, meaning “bottom line up front.”
The memo begins by stating that one of two Wuhan labs is the likely source of the COVID outbreak. The two labs identified by the state department are the Wuhan CDC’s lab located in downtown Wuhan and the Wuhan Institute of Virology, where Shi Zhengli was known to have conducted dangerous gain-of-function experiments on bat viruses.
The State Department’s focus on the Wuhan CDC lab as a possible source is particularly significant as that facility is located only a few hundred feet from the Huanan Seafood Market where an already infected customer may have caused a superspreader event in December 2019.
Notably, the World Health Organization’s lead investigator of the virus’s origin, Peter Ben Embarek, privately told a Danish TV crew that he suspected that the Wuhan CDC lab was the origin of the pandemic. Embarek, who promoted a natural origin for the virus in his public report, privately noted that the CDC lab had mysteriously moved to its new downtown location in early December and that such a move may have increased the chances of a lab leak or accidental spillage.
The other lab identified by the State Department as the likely source of the pandemic is the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which has been the main focus of attention over the past two years.
The State Department memo noted that the Wuhan Institute, by far the most logical place to investigate the virus origin, had been completely sealed off from outside inquiry by the CCP. The memo also noted that a gag order regarding both Wuhan labs had been issued on Jan 1, 2020, and a major general from the People’s Liberation Army had assumed control over the Wuhan Institute of Virology since early January of 2020.
The State Department memo emphatically stated that “All other proposed theories are likely to be a decoy to prevent inquiry to Wuhan CDC and Wuhan Institute of Virology.”
It bears repeating that the memo was written in April 2020.
That’s because the State Department’s decoy argument mirrors the actions taken by Fauci and then-National Institutes of Health (NIH) head Dr. Francis Collins who–at the same time this memo was written–were actively suppressing and censoring any public discussion of the lab leak scenario. When Fox News ran a story in April 2020 suggesting that the virus came out of a Wuhan lab, Collins immediately contacted Fauci to explore ways the two men could “put down this very destructive conspiracy.”
Collins had previously told Fauci and his group of scientists that “science and international harmony” could be harmed if the lab leak theory took hold. Collins’s directive led Fauci’s group to publish two papers that categorically dismissed the lab leak theory, one in the medical journal the Lancet and the other in the scientific journal Nature. Those two papers would become the cornerstone of combined efforts from Fauci’s scientists, the media, Big Tech, and the U.S. government to suppress any discussion of a lab leak, while simultaneously promoting the natural origin theory.
The State Department memo also lists many facts that the public has only come to know in piecemeal fashion over the course of the past two years. We’ve previously covered many of these details on our show, including that the Wuhan CDC had a resident “Batman”—Tian Junhua—who bragged about personally having collected more than 10,000 virus-carrying bats as lab samples from Chinese caves.
Tian also was widely known for his recklessness and carelessness during his collection process.
Regarding the Wuhan Institute of Virology, the State Department memo noted that the director of the lab, Shi Zhengli, had conducted gain-of-function engineering of bat viruses to make them more easily transmittable to humans. As we now know, the defining feature of the COVID-19 virus, its furin cleavage site, is what makes the virus particularly transmissible in humans. While no furin cleavage site has ever been observed in naturally occurring SARS coronaviruses, Shi was part of a 2018 research proposal that aimed to insert exactly such a feature into coronaviruses.
The State Department’s memo also highlights the poor safety standards at the Wuhan Institute, a fact that could easily lead to an unintentional leak of the deadly virus to the outside population. Interestingly, the memo also questions the disappearance of lab worker Huang Yanling, whose bio, profile, and picture were scrubbed from the institute’s website shortly after the outbreak. To this day, Huang’s whereabouts and well-being remain unknown.
Lastly, the memo takes a detailed look at a Chinese medical professional whose online name is Wu Xiaohua. Wu claimed that Shi Zhengli was playing God by creating coronaviruses with the specific aim of making them more transmissible in humans. Wu also claimed that Shi used intermediate animals in her lab and that her lab’s management of deadly viruses was appallingly poor and negligent.
The State Department memo found Wu’s claims to be credible and that assessment holds up well, given the information that has been made public in the intervening two years. We now know Shi had an active plan to insert furin cleavage sites into bat viruses, we know that she used humanized mice to test how her virus creations would affect humans, and we know that her lab was repeatedly cited for its poor safety record.
The most striking takeaway from the memo is that it focuses almost entirely on the lab leak scenario, reflecting that the State Department was almost certain in April 2020 that the virus had originated in a lab. What remains entirely unclear is why neither the State Department nor Secretary Pompeo released this information as soon as they had it.
Had the memo been made public nearly two years ago when it was written, the course of events would have been very different. Knowing that the virus came out of a lab would have refocused public attention and the search for remedies could have been more focused.
There also would have been more concerted efforts to prevent future leaks. Rather than misdirecting the public toward a natural origin, Fauci and the NIH would have been exposed for their role in funding the work at the Wuhan Institute.
Most importantly, the Chinese Communist Party would have been subjected to greater international pressure for its role in suppressing any advance information regarding the outbreak. The memo might also have had an impact on the 2020 presidential election, as voters tended to see Donald Trump as far more capable than Joe Biden in taking on the CCP.
While we don’t know with certainty why the memo was concealed, the only person who had a constitutional role in deciding if suppression of a lab leak should be the policy of the U.S. government was President Trump. Although it’s possible that Trump decided it would be better to conceal the facts, it’s far more likely that, like all of us, the president was kept in the dark.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 04/07/2022 – 23:25 - Beijing Hired TikTok 'Influencers', 'Real Housewives' Stars To Spread Propaganda Ahead Of Winter Games
Beijing Hired TikTok ‘Influencers’, ‘Real Housewives’ Stars To Spread Propaganda Ahead Of Winter Games
In recent years (most notably since the dawn of TikTok, which has been known to intersperse bits of Chinese propaganda with videos of scantily clad, attention-seeking American teenagers) Beijing has sought to influence American public opinion in its favor by manipulating social media.
And as the international backlash over China’s treatment of its Uygher Muslim minority in the far-flung Xinjiang Province threatened to derail the Winter Olympics in Beijing, the CCP ratcheted up its influence campaign, and as it turns out, American social-media influencers, and one-well connected management firm, were eager to help (for a price).
According to the latest update from the Washington Free Beacon, which the story using records from the DoJ, Monumental Sports and Entertainment, a company co-owned by Jobs, was paid by China Central Television to carry out a ‘promotional blitz’ for the 2022 Winter Games during a Washington Capitals hockey game.
And as part of another promotional effort, the Chinese consulate in New York hired 11 social media influencers to talk up the Games (and China’s amenable business climate) on TikTok and Instagram.
Disclosure filings revealing work for foreign entities revealed that the consulate in New York paid $300,000 to public relations firm Vippi Media to have TikTok and Instagram users promote the Beijing Olympics, just as pressure was growing for corporate sponsors in the West to join a boycott over China’s human rights abuses.
One TikTok influencer, Anna Sitar, released a video on Feb. 11 that used the hashtags #Beijing2022 and #WinterOlympics. In the clip, Sitar touted the fact that Beijing is the only city to host both the winter and summer Olympics. The clip was a success: it went on to garner 2.2 million impressions.
@annaxsitar We know I woulda taken home gold if I was there ✨Go team USA! #Beijing2022 #WinterOlympics #Partner ♬ original sound – anna x https://www.tiktok.com/embed.js
Through its American intermediary (a mercenary marketing firm), Beijing also recruited stars from The Real Housewives of Beverly Hills, and a former Paralympian swimmer, to promote the games. Some of these influencers even promoted claims from Chinese officials that the internment camps in Xinjiang were actually “education training centers” – a claim that Beijing has long pushed to its own people and the international press.
Vippi Media also hired Ryan Dubs, a TikTok influencer who uses the site to promote his line of beauty products. Dubs touted China’s business climate, at one point praising China’s “high tech and forward thinking.” In the same video, Dubs said it would be “impossible” to make his products elsewhere.
Dubs also published an interview he conducted with Huang Ping, the Chinese consul general in New York. Dubs said he was “really impressed” with Huang’s comments about China’s climate change goals. He and Huang expressed their mutual opposition to U.S. tariffs against Chinese products, which were enacted during the Trump administration in response to China’s unfair trade practices.
Huang has denied China is engaged in human rights atrocities and said that internment camps housing Uyghurs are legal “education training centers.”
Vippi Media also recruited a cast member of the reality show Real Housewives of Beverly Hills and American Paralympian swimmer Jessica Long to promote the games.
One Real Housewives star, Crystal Kung Minkoff, promoted the Beijing Winter Games on her Instagram account.
Toward the end of its report, the Free Beacon mentioned that none of the influencers who shared Chinese propaganda on TikTok and Instagram were registered as foreign agents (something that all Americans who do any kind of politically-sensitive work on behalf of foreign governments are required by law to do).
This of course begs the question: how many more ‘influencers’ are presently engaged in similar work?
Tyler Durden
Thu, 04/07/2022 – 23:05 - US Says China Would Face Sanctions Similar To Russia For Invading Taiwan
US Says China Would Face Sanctions Similar To Russia For Invading Taiwan
Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,
On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that the US would be ready to use sanctions similar to what has been imposed on Russia against China if Beijing were to invade Taiwan.
Yellen told the House Financial Services Committee that she believes the US has shown it can impose significant economic pain. “I think you should not doubt our ability and resolve to do the same in other situations,” she said.
A prior trip to China, via Reuters. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman also testified before the Committee and warned that the US would impose harsh sanctions on China if it helped Russia in its war in Ukraine. “It gives President Xi, I think, a pretty good understanding of what might come his way should he, in fact, support Putin in any material fashion,” she said.
China has strongly denied US claims that it was considering giving Russia military support. Last month, US officials told media outlets that Moscow had asked Beijing for help. But US officials told NBC News this week that the claim “lacked hard evidence.”
US officials have also warned that Washington would take action against Beijing if it helped Russia avoid Western sanctions. Over the past few years, the US has imposed a series of sanctions and export controls against Beijing, but they have not been as harsh as what Russia is facing.
While Washington is warning Beijing it could impose tougher sanctions, such measures could do serious damage to the US economy since it is so intertwined with China’s.
In comments to NBC News, US officials basically admit that the Biden administration is lying to us about Russia’s war in Ukrainehttps://t.co/4nNwBmyWHB pic.twitter.com/i5TwK82fXW
— Dave DeCamp (@DecampDave) April 6, 2022
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For now, Yellen said that the US shouldn’t sanction China for its relationship with Russia. “We would be very concerned if they were to supply weapons to Russia, or to try to evade the sanctions that we’ve put in place on the Russian financial system and the central bank,” she said. “We don’t see that happening at this point.”
Tyler Durden
Thu, 04/07/2022 – 22:45 - Shanghai Sees Record COVID Cases For 6th Day As Unrest Spurred By Lockdown Worsens
Shanghai Sees Record COVID Cases For 6th Day As Unrest Spurred By Lockdown Worsens
As the situation in Shanghai continues to deteriorate, residents have been pushing back against the CCP’s authority in ways that are rarely seen in China. Since the start of the pandemic, and the CCP’s decision to adopt a “war like” position to enforce its “zero COVID” policy, has rarely elicited much resistence. Until now.
Yesterday, videos of Shanghaiers taking to their balconies to sing in protest of the local authorities’ decision to order an ‘indefinite’ lockdown went viral in the West (they were quickly censored on Weibo).
As seen on Weibo: Shanghai residents go to their balconies to sing & protest lack of supplies. A drone appears: “Please comply w covid restrictions. Control your soul’s desire for freedom. Do not open the window or sing.” https://t.co/0ZTc8fznaV pic.twitter.com/pAnEGOlBIh
— Alice Su (@aliceysu) April 6, 2022
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Authorities counted nearly 20K cases in Shanghai alone on Wednesday, nearly matching the number for all of China from the day before. It marked the sixth daily record for the city, according to the SCMP. Symptomatic cases climbed to 322, up from 311 a day earlier, while the vast majority of the cases showed no symptoms. Local authorities have counted more than 70K cases since March 1.
We noted a few days ago that the situation in Shanghai has evolved to become more than just a public health crisis. Instead, it has become a political test for the CCP, as it fights to protect the legitimacy of its “zero COVID” approach. In that sense, the battle for Shanghai has become “too big to fail.”
The NYT said as much Thursday.
As the coronavirus races through Shanghai, in the city’s worst outbreak since the pandemic began, the authorities have deployed their usual hard-nosed playbook to try and stamp out transmission, no matter the cost. What has been different is the response: an outpouring of public dissatisfaction rarely seen in China since the chaotic early days of the pandemic, in Wuhan.
The crisis in Shanghai is shaping up to be more than just a public health challenge. It is also a political test of the zero tolerance approach at large, on which the Communist Party has staked its legitimacy.
For much of the past two years, the Chinese government has stifled most domestic criticism of its zero tolerance Covid strategy, through a mixture of censorship, arrests and success at keeping caseloads low. But in Shanghai, which has recorded more than 70,000 cases since March 1, that is proving more difficult.
Shanghai is China’s most populous metropolis, its shimmering commercial heart. It is home to a vibrant middle class and many of China’s business, cultural and academic elite. A large share of foreign-educated Chinese live in Shanghai, and residents’ per capita disposable income is the highest in the country. Even in a country where dissent is dangerous, many there have long found ways to demand government responsiveness and have a say over their own lives.
“I’m just too angry, too sad,” said Kristine Wu, a 28-year-old employee of a tech company who was visited at home by two police officers after she criticized the city’s Communist Party leader on social media. She recorded her defiant confrontation with them, in which she asked why they were wasting time harassing her, when they could be helping people in need of care. She then shared a photo of the encounter on social media, despite the officers’ warnings against doing so. (It was later censored.)
“I thought, whatever, I’ll just go for it,” said Ms. Wu, who had not considered herself political before the lockdown. “I used to live pretty comfortably, and before anything had happened, everyone was very polite, very rule abiding. Now all that has just crumbled.”
The CCP is caught in a difficult dilemma. Public health experts are keenly aware of the fact that China is unprepared to live with the coronavirus: just over half the of Chinese age 80 and over are fully vaccinated as of late March. And Chinese vaccines have been shown to be less effective than their western counterparts.
Already, the people of Shanghai are struggling with crippling food shortages as they’re forced to rely on the government for essential supplies, according to the AP.
Residents of Shanghai are struggling to get meat, rice and other food supplies under anti-coronavirus controls that confine most of its 25 million people in their homes, fueling frustration as the government tries to contain a spreading outbreak.
People in China’s business capital complain that online grocers often are sold out. Some received government food packages of meat and vegetables for a few days. But with no word on when they will be allowed out, anxiety is rising.
Zhang Yu, 33, said her household of eight eats three meals a day but has cut back to noodles for lunch. They received no government supplies.
“It’s not easy to keep this up,” said Zhang, who starts shopping online at 7 a.m.
“We read on the news there is (food), but we just can’t buy it,” she said. “As soon as you go to the grocery shopping app, it says today’s orders are filled.”
As the food shortage worsens, containers full of frozen food and chemicals are piling up at Shanghai’s biggest port as the lock down of the city and virus testing prevents workers from getting to the docks to pick up boxes, according to Bloomberg.
Of course, Shanghai isn’t the only part of China struggling with an outbreak. The Province of Jilin is still facing a surge (and the attendent restrictions) even after authorities technically lifted a weeks-long lockdown
Source: BBG
Going even further than its rival the NYT, the Washington Post on Thursday declared the situation in Shanghai to be a “powder keg” that could call the entire CCP authoritarian system into question.
But Shanghai looks like a powder keg for China, where the party-state justifies its rule by casting itself as guardian of the people’s health and welfare. Shanghai’s residents are growing desperate. People are complaining on social media that they are unable to get food and water delivered. When some began shouting protests out their windows, demanding supplies in one Shanghai neighborhood, a drone flew by and warned them to stop, and to please “control the soul’s desire for freedom.”
Now, it is authoritarian China’s turn to face questions about whether its system, based on tight controls, is really better at controlling the pandemic. China would be well advised to learn lessons from the West and pivot to more flexibility. Mr. Xi should admit he needs a new strategy. But can he?
While no more videos of protesting locals have made it to western social media over the last day, one video of riot police being dispatched to prepare for any more ‘unrest’ did catch the public’s attention.
PLA arrived in Shanghai to support riot police against possible protests against the strict lockdown pic.twitter.com/BgqPKuOVjA
— Matt Davio (@MissTrade) April 6, 2022
Tyler Durden
Thu, 04/07/2022 – 22:25 - "This Is Shocking": Quant Guru Calculates Fed Can Only Hike To 1% Before It Must Halt The Cycle
“This Is Shocking”: Quant Guru Calculates Fed Can Only Hike To 1% Before It Must Halt The Cycle
Earlier today, futures slumped to session lows (before an algo driven meltup sent stocks soaring to session highs) when the Fed’s resident uberhawk and FOMC dissenter, James Bullard, poured more overpriced gasoline on the tightening fire when he said that “the current policy rate is too low by about 300 basis points” according to a version of the Taylor rule which showed that the Fed has a long way to go to catch up to where it should be if, somewhere around 3.5%, it has any hopes of denting runaway inflation around 8%, which as shown below sounds about right considering the last time inflation was here, the fed funds rate was 12%.
While Bullard’s comments were not surprising – we already knew that he had dissented in favor of a 50bps rate hikes in March – comments by Lael Brainard, regarded as the most dovish of all Fed Governors, shocked the markets on Tuesday when she highlighted the likelihood the Fed will undertake a more rapid shrinkage of its balance sheet than markets were expecting.
Here, one obvious question is whether the Fed can hike anywhere close to 12% – or even 3.5% – without crashing the entire financial system. Another question is whether the Taylor rule is applicable in such a unique situation where not only are rates still at rock bottom but the Fed has some $9 trillion in securities on its balance sheet. Indeed, while the prevailing hawkishness across the FOMC means monetary policy will be tightened faster than expected, a third question is how much faster, or in other words, “what is the trade-off between QT and higher Fed Funds? Surely the faster the balance sheet is shrunk, the fewer rises will be needed in Fed Funds.”
According to at least one Wall Street strategist, the answer to these questions is also the reason why the Fed Funds rate won’t climb beyond 1.0%!
We refer to SocGen’s resident permaskeptic, Albert Edwards, who today writes that “the prospect of the Fed engaging in rapid balance sheet shrinkage (QT) has spooked the markets.” But, as we muse above, how does one combine the concurrent impact of QT with the Fed Fund hikes to get a handle on where Fed Funds might peak?
Well, Edwards believes he may have the answer, or rather he says that his “learned colleague”, SocGen’s in house quant guru Solomon Tadesse has an answer. While few in the mainstream have ever heard of Solomon, back in mid-2018, not long before the Fed’s rate hike plans blew up spectacularly, the SocGen quant made waves on Wall Street trading desks when he went against the consensus view, and in May 2018 pinpointed the peak in Fed Funds at a lowly 2½%. He was absolutely spot on.
The problem: his latest analysis for this cycle puts the peak of the Fed Funds at just below 1.0%, or less than 3 more rate hikes before the Fed is forced to reverse! That, as Edwards notes, “is so far away from the current consensus that it deserves some serious analysis.”
* * *
First, for those curious about the details some background: Solomon’s explanation of the first generation Shadow FFR based on Wu and Xia (2016) and his second generation estimate from De Rezende and Ristiniemi (2020) are in this note here. For those pressed for time, what the analysis says is that the pace of QE or QT can be combined with the headline Fed Funds rate to calculate a Shadow FFR.
So combining the expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet from sub-$4 trillion at end 2018 to almost $9 trillion was the equivalent of the FFR falling to minus 5% (charts below)! But now that the Fed has reveresed, ending QE combined with just one ¼% hike in the headline FFR means the Shadow FFR has already jumped from minus 5% to minus 2.5% – a 250bp hike (blue line below).
We now take a brief tour down memory lane to remind readers how when Solomon made his mid-May 2018 call that the FFR would peak at 2½%, the market was looking at something nearer 3% (see chart below). Not much difference you might think, but as the Fed enacted its final hike to 2½% in Dec 2018, expectations of easing were rapidly taking hold as investors realized that the Fed had clearly overdone the tightening cycle (as we had said previously, the Ghost of 1937 has emerged right on schedule and the Fed has overtightened) even though just back in October 2018, Powell said that “we are a long way from neutral.”
Meanwhile, as Edwards reminds us, the US bond rally from mid-Nov 2018 onwards was typical of the situation when yields tend to peak before the last rate hike. By comparison, currently the market expects the Fed to tighten rates rapidly and the peak in the FFR to be close to 3½% by March 2023.
On that basis, you should wait until the back end of this year before dipping your toe into the bond market. But with inflation considered rampant, many investors believe the headline FFR will peak nearer 4%, despite recession fears mounting, and earlier this week, Deutsche Bank became the first large broker to forecast a US recession.
Needless to say with market consensus expecting rates to rise as high as 3% before the Fed starts cutting around the next recession, if Solomon is right that the Fed will struggle to raise FFR to 1% or above, this is a huge divergence with consensus. One can see clearly in Solomon’s chart below how the recent 250bp Shadow FFR hike compares to the cumulative easing and tightening in previous Fed cycles:
As depicted in the chart above, Solomon constructs a Monetary Tightening to Easing ratio (MTE, the ratio of the degree of tightening to the degree of easing in the preceding cycle). The charts below show how the MTE ratio declined in the 1980s as disinflation became the dominant theme. Hence since the mid-1980s the tightening cycle has topped out at around 70% of the previous easing cycle. But shouldn’t this ratio now return to 1.5x given CPI inflation has comprehensively overshot, Edwards asks and answers: Maybe…
You see, the main reason why Solomon’s MTE ratio has been consistently lower (at 70%) recently is that tightening cycles have been halted because financial market bubbles, created by excessive Fed easing, then blow up and prevent the Fed from further tightening. Another way of visualizing this is the infamous chart showing that every Fed tightening cycle ends in crisis (and this one will be no different);
So putting it all together, if we take the 70% MTE ratio above, Solomon calculates that the Shadow FFR will likely top out with 550bp of tightening (70% of the 800bp easing), and even though the Fed will fail to tame inflation the crash in markets and the recession (or depression) that will hit the hyperfinancialized US economy, with its 6.3x financial assets to GDP…
… will force the Fed to not only end tightening early but to rush into an easing cycle
The final point: prior to Lael Brainard’s comments, the remaining 300bp hike in the Shadow FFR was split between a headline FFR rise to only 1½% with the remainder being QT. But now that the Fed minutes confirmed that the pace of QT will accelerate accelerate to $95BN (or more) per month, Edwards concludes that “the actual FFR will struggle to get to 1% before the Fed needs to halt the tightening cycle. That is shocking.”
The full notes, both Edwards and Solomon’s are available to pro subs in the usual place.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 04/07/2022 – 22:05 - Hospital Refuses Father-To-Son Kidney Transplant Over COVID Jab
Hospital Refuses Father-To-Son Kidney Transplant Over COVID Jab
Authored by Alice Giordano via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
A 9-year-old boy is being denied a life-saving kidney transplant because his father is not vaccinated against COVID-19.
Dane Donaldson (R), with his wife Jenn and sons Ryder (C) and Tanner, who is 9 years old and requires a kidney transplant. (Courtesy of Dane Donaldson) Dane Donaldson was found to be a perfect match for his son Tanner back in early 2018 by the Cleveland Clinic Children’s Hospital before the outbreak of the pandemic.
The family decided to wait a little longer before having Tanner undergo the transplant since transplanted kidneys from a live donor only lasted about 20 years.
Then COVID-19 hit and put a freeze on the procedure.
Now the hospital is refusing to perform the life-saving father-to-son kidney transplant it agreed to do nearly four years ago over the senior Donaldson’s unvaccinated status.
In a statement released to The Epoch Times, the Cleveland Clinic cited a 2021 policy it adopted requiring all donors and candidates for organ transplants to be fully vaccinated against the virus.
“Individuals who are actively infected with COVID-19 have a much higher rate of complications during and after surgery, even if the infection is asymptomatic,” the hospital stated.
Donaldson, who is in the insurance business, told The Epoch Times he is opposed to the COVID-19 vaccine for religious reasons, but also because he has seen a rising number of clients get critically ill after receiving it.
He believes the hospital is contradicting itself by requiring a living donor to be vaccinated, but not a deceased one.
“I asked them in that car accident victim, would you vaccinate him on the way to the hospital to rip his kidney out and they said ‘no’,” Donaldson told The Epoch Times.
Donaldson said he even offered to sign a waiver freeing the hospital from any liability should either himself or his son develop COVID-19. At the same time, the hospital has refused to agree to take any responsibility for any side effects that he or his son experienced from the vaccine.
The hospital, he said, is blowing the chance of a lifetime for his son.
“A live donor is the best donor for kidneys,” said Donaldson, “but they’ll take a kidney from a deceased person not vaccinated, it makes no sense.”
The Cleveland hospital agreed that live donors are the best source for kidney transplant recipients, but emphasized that they were “not without risks”—noting that there is medication kidney transplant patients must take that compromises the immune system.
“We continually strive to minimize risk to our living donors, and vaccination is an important component to ensure the safest approach and optimal outcomes for donors,” it stated.
Donaldson said he and his wife Jenn are now in the process of finding another hospital to perform the transplant. They had wanted to stay with the children’s hospital because it has been treating his son since birth.
Tanner was born with compromised kidneys due to a rare birth defect that caused irreversible kidney damage in utero and resulted in stage 4 chronic kidney disease as well as bladder and urinary dysfunctions.
He now has only 18 percent function left of his kidneys, according to Donaldson.
The Donaldsons join a number of other publicized cases of U.S. hospitals that have refused to perform organ transplants because either the donor or recipient was not vaccinated.
Last month, The Epoch Times covered the story of an Air Force veteran who was denied a kidney transplant because he was refusing the vaccine.
Chad Carswell had only 4 percent kidney function left when the Atrium Health Wake Forest Baptist Medical Center in Winston-Salem, North Carolina, refused to keep him on their candidate list for a donated kidney.
Fortunately, after his story went public the Medical City Fort Worth Transplant Institute in Texas offered to put Carswell on their recipient list for a kidney. His attorney Adam Draper said that as of April 3, Carswell was still in need of a match for the transplant.
In January, attorneys for the conservative organization Informed Consent Action Network (ICAN) wrote a seven-page letter to the Cleveland Center requesting it reconsider the decision, and also the science behind it.
“Presently, it appears the hospital is operating under a psychosis of flawed morality in choosing to sacrifice the health and wellness of its 9-year-old patient in exchange for what it perceives to be the ‘greater good,’” ICAN’s lawyers Aaron Siri and Elizabeth Brehm wrote.
ICAN also called the hospital irrational because the entire family, including Tanner and his older brother, all had COVID-19 and recovered from it, meaning they have natural immunity.
In its letter to the hospital, ICAN cited a number of international studies that showed that re-infection of COVID-19 after recovering from the virus was rare.
Of the studies it cited was one performed by Cleveland Clinic itself.
In the study, the hospital looked at SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) infections in 52,238 vaccinated and unvaccinated health care workers over a five-month period.
It found that none of the previously infected healthcare workers who remained unvaccinated contracted SARS-CoV-2 over the course of the research despite a high background rate of COVID-19 in the hospital.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 04/07/2022 – 21:25 - Containers To Be Removed From Massive Ship Stranded In Chesapeake Bay
Containers To Be Removed From Massive Ship Stranded In Chesapeake Bay
A massive container ship has been stuck in the Chesapeake Bay waters outside Baltimore for three weeks. Numerous refloating attempts have failed, and Evergreen Marine, the owner of Ever Forward, declared “General Average” last week. Now salvage crews, left with only one option, will begin to unload thousands of containers to reduce the ship’s current weight for future refloating attempts.
According to local news WMAR, the massive 1,100-foot container ship with 5,000 containers on board is stuck in 24 feet of water and needs about 42 feet of draft. The failed attempts to refloat the vessel will make way for two cranes in the coming days that will begin unloading hundreds of containers from both the starboard and port side in a move called “lightering.” The entire process could take two weeks or more.
“Salvage experts determined they would not be able to overcome the ground force of the Ever Forward in its current loaded condition,” the Coast Guard said in a statement.
John Martino, from the School of Seamanship, said unloading containers off the vessel will be no easy task:
“They also have to be careful the order they take the containers off.
“So, they have to make sure everything stays balanced as they go along,” Martino said.
As an undertaking to free the container ship can be very expensive, Evergreen declared “General Average” last week to transfer some of the refloating costs to cargo owners.
Unloading containers risks unbalancing and damaging the ship. There are concerns that stress on the hull buried in more than 20 feet of mud could result in a fuel leak, or worse, structural damage to the vessel that could make it a more permanent fixture in the Chesapeake Bay.
More on the situation from local news channel WJZ.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 04/07/2022 – 21:05 - FDA Floats Moving COVID-19 Vaccines To Flu-Like Model
FDA Floats Moving COVID-19 Vaccines To Flu-Like Model
Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Food and Drug Administration (FDA) officials have proposed a future model for developing new COVID-19 vaccines that would be built on the approach to creating influenza vaccines.
A nurse prepares a COVID-19 vaccine in Southfield, Mich., on Sept. 29, 2021. (Emily Elconin/Reuters) Accumulating data suggest the current COVID-19 vaccines, based on a virus strain that is now generations old, “may need to be updated at some point to ensure the high level of efficacy demonstrated in the early vaccine clinical trials,” the FDA said.
One concern is how new strains of SARS-CoV-2 keep emerging, some of which bypass protection bestowed by the vaccines better than others.
The vaccines provide virtually no protection against infection from Omicron, the strain that is dominant in the United States at present, though they have held up better against severe disease.
U.S. regulators say an orderly and transparent process should be outlined for changing the composition of the COVID-19 vaccines, with the process ideally being adopted by countries around the world in addition to the World Health Organization (WHO).
The model in place for annually updating influenza vaccines can inform the process, officials say.
“The strain selection process for determining the composition of seasonal influenza vaccines may provide a general outline for the approach needed for updating the composition of COVID-19 vaccines to address current and emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants,” the FDA said.
The influenza vaccine model is based on predicting which variants will be circulating in the future. WHO leads the effort, voting on the composition of the vaccines to be deployed in the northern hemisphere five to six months later and the southern hemisphere three to four months in the future.
U.S. authorities often adopt the WHO’s recommended composition, though the FDA, in consultation with its expert advisory panel on vaccines, occasionally diverge from the advice.
While the flu model could be used as a foundation for future COVID-19 vaccines, there are unique issues for COVID-19 that will need to be addressed, FDA officials say, including how the seasonal pattern for SARS-CoV-2 surges has yet to be identified; how the COVID-19 vaccines are built across different platforms, such as messenger RNA; and how the experience with those vaccines to date wouldn’t be sufficient to get authorization or approval without clinical trial data.
Further, even the best-matched flu vaccines end up being around 60 percent effective, a figure some vaccine manufacturers have described as poor.
The proposed shift to a flu-like model contains “a lot of assumptions,” John Moore, a professor of immunology at Weill Cornell Medicine, told The Epoch Times.
Clinical trials of Omicron-specific shots are ongoing, with data on human subjects not out yet. Data from animal studies, though, which are “usually pretty predictive, do not support the use of that specific vaccine as a boost,” Moore said. “So if that’s going to be the case in the humans, why go through the complexity of introducing a new vaccine if it’s not needed?”
The new model was proposed in a briefing document published ahead of an April 6 meeting. During the meeting, which The Epoch Times will stream live, FDA officials will discuss with the agency’s expert advisers various matters relating to COVID-19 vaccines, including optimal use of additional COVID-19 shots in the future.
The FDA recently cleared fourth doses for millions of Americans without consulting the advisers, part of a growing pattern of minimizing their role.
Among those presenting will be Dr. Kanta Subbarao, a WHO official, on COVID-19 vaccine composition, and Robert Johnson, a government official on the development of variant-specific vaccines.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 04/07/2022 – 20:45 - Goldman Warns Of Higher Oil Prices & Volatility Due To "Self-Sustaining" Physical & Financial Deficit Doom-Loop
Goldman Warns Of Higher Oil Prices & Volatility Due To “Self-Sustaining” Physical & Financial Deficit Doom-Loop
On the same day as oil prices slip to their lowest since Putin’s invasion of Ukraine – and reports of Russia selling oil to China for Yuan – Goldman Sachs doubled-down on their Poszar-esque commodity-currency-linked warnings about the regime-change under way in the energy complex.
As Goldman’s Jeff Currie recently warned, commodities are entering a volatility trap.
Crucially, as we detail below, this self-sustaining regime-shift driven by both physical and financial factors, is likely to last years rather than weeks.
‘Physically’
Inventories are already at historical lows in terms of ‘days of demand’ following 20 consecutive months of deficit…
…and Goldman notes that the unavailability of the usual system buffers of inventory and spare capacity…
…has required an evolution in the pricing regime towards the more abrupt mechanism of demand destruction, amplifying the price and volatility impact of the continued pandemic shocks and, currently, the Russia-Ukraine war.
Remember, the ‘physical’ markets have suddenly become significantly more complicated (and delivery anything but guaranteed) as we recently noted ‘oil is no longer fungible’ to some extent, for some buyers… “Russian oil bidless, non-Russian oil offerless”…
‘Financially’
Volatility is both curbing liquidity and restricting access to the very credit required to maintain orderly financial and physical trading of commodities.
In addition, it is also exacerbating the medium- to long-term capital shortages that have built up after an era of low returns and ample supply, reinforced by political and investor ESG concerns.
This can be visualized in the following vicious doom-loop of volatility creating more illiquidity and lowering capital, leading to more volatility and so on…
As oil becomes more volatile…
…the range of possible outcomes becomes wider, with a greater potential for loss…
…that shifting distribution drives up the Vale-at-Risk (VaR)…
…which drives down the hedgeable amount of commodities, for any given amount of risk capital…
And a lack of risk capital lowers market participation, driving down liquidity and exacerbating volatility, and further discouraging potential lenders and investors, reinforcing lower participation and higher volatility.
This volatility trap is a direct consequence of the “Revenge of the Old Economy”.
As commodity producers under-invest in new supply, commodity inventories deplete, raising volatility as the market loses its balancing buffer between small supply and demand shocks. This volatility in turn keeps commodity producer assets unattractive – it raises the uncertainty surrounding the investment’s true value, lowering its appeal to investors. Capital continues to stay away from the sector, keeping new supply capacity – and hence inventories – low.
And as we saw in the 1970s, such a volatility trap can create persistently higher commodity inflation and a supply constrained market.
-
In the 1970s, the markets turned to long-term fixed price contracts and built large conglomerates to deepen the balance sheets required to deal with these funding stresses.
-
In the 2000s (pre GFC) they used financial markets, and a higher degree of bank leverage, to share the risks. Neither avenue is fully available in today’s regulatory environment.
But, it’s different this time.
Given there is unlikely to be a widespread lift of sanctions on Russia, regardless of the outcome of the war, as has historically been the case with such regulatory impositions, Goldman expects this new, more volatile pricing regime to persist for the foreseeable future.
All of which reinforces Goldman’s forecast for $125/bbl Brent crude in 2H22 and reinforces Poszar’s warnings that you can print money but not print oil, iron, or wheat, or VLCCs or other ships to guarantee delivery of the critical commodities. Thus, as Poszar concludes rather ominously, commodity reserves will be an essential part of Bretton Woods III, and historically wars are won by those who have more food and energy supplies. And as Goldman’s price forecast suggests, the current ‘lull’ in the stagflationary storm (as oil prices slide to post-invasion lows) is perhaps just the eye of a very much larger and longer storm.
However, while many have been predicting the birth of a new monetary system in the past decade, it is the nuances of Zoltan’s vision of the monetary future that is especially troubling: as he puts it “we are witnessing the birth of Bretton Woods III – a new world (monetary) order centered around commodity-based currencies in the East that will likely weaken the Eurodollar system and also contribute to inflationary forces in the West.”
Tyler Durden
Thu, 04/07/2022 – 20:25 -
- Tennessee Titans Become First NFL Team To Accept Bitcoin
Tennessee Titans Become First NFL Team To Accept Bitcoin
Authored by Shawn Amick via BitcoinMagazine.com,
The Tennessee Titans are the first NFL team to accept bitcoin for large and recurring purchases through a third-party service provider…
The Tennessee Titans today announced they are now the first NFL team accepting bitcoin for key investments through a third-party conversion service. The establishment of this partnership allows fans to offer bitcoin in payment for season tickets, suites, PSLs and sponsorship opportunities with the Titans and Nissan Stadium events.
Initially the Titans will only allow bitcoin for larger purchases and recurring payments, but the team hopes to open up the initiative to allow the purchase of single-tickets, merchandise, and at-game food and beverage sales.
Bitcoin Magazine and UTXO Management, a Nashville-based digital assets fund, offered close advice through a partnership with the Titans in order to bring this functionality to the team.
“We’re proud to partner with the Tennessee Titans as they start their Bitcoin journey and offer fans a new way to pay,” said David Bailey, CEO of BTC Inc and partner at UTXO Management.
“2022 is a special year as we continue to work with professional sports teams to help educate and further mass adoption of Bitcoin. The Titans are a top NFL franchise and a natural fit for this partnership.”
Joining the ranks of MLB’s Oakland Athletics and the NBA’s Sacramento Kings and Dallas Mavericks, the Titans will be the first NFL team to accept bitcoin.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 04/07/2022 – 20:05 - Canada Set To Announce 2 Year Ban On Foreign Purchases Of Residential Real Estate
Canada Set To Announce 2 Year Ban On Foreign Purchases Of Residential Real Estate
What goes up must come down.
At least, that looks like what the story is going to wind up being for the Canadian housing market. The country is reportedly set to announce that it will ban foreign purchases of residential real estate for two years.
“The foreign buyers ban will apply to condos, apartments, and single residential units,” according to CTV. “Permanent residents, foreign workers, and students will be excluded from this new measure. Foreigners who are purchasing their primary residence here in Canada will be exempt.”
The effects will likely be dramatic, as foreign purchases of real estate accounted for a lot of the bid that helped Canadian housing skyrocket to begin with.
“The timing is a classic case of closing the barn door after the horses have left,” ForexLive’s Adam Button wrote this week. He noted that the market had already started to cool in March amidst interest rate hikes.
After calling the housing market top on Bloomberg last month, Button says this action by the government “certainly adds” to his conviction. He wrote:
“The question now is whether it will be a soft or hard landing. These measures from the Federal government are being combined with provincial measures and BOC hikes to create a perfect storm in a market that was already way out of line.”
As recent as last fall we were documenting how rural shacks were selling for as much as 37% above asking price within days of being listed.
A rancher built in the 1970s had an asking price of $998,000 in June 2021 and sold later that month for $1,365,000. Just days on the market, a fierce bidding war broke out with 13 bidders who ultimately bid up the price 37% above list.
“There wasn’t a lot of inventory, and there was another property that had sold recently in multiple offers, so we wanted to take advantage of any leftover buyers,” Toronto-based agent Luisa Piccirilli said at the time.
Piccirilli described the bidding war mainly between those who wanted to escape city life and wanted a backyard.
“There’s an exodus of people leaving the city and wanting more property and land,” Piccirilli said.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 04/07/2022 – 19:45 - Large Israeli Study Finds That Protection Against COVID From 4th Shot Drops Quickly
Large Israeli Study Finds That Protection Against COVID From 4th Shot Drops Quickly
Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,
An Israeli study found that a fourth dose of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine doesn’t offer long-lived protection against the Omicron variant of the CCP virus.
Using Ministry of Health data on more than 1.2 million people, researchers found that a second booster dose of the BioNTech-Pfizer vaccine offered protection against significant COVID-19 infections for six weeks. But protection against all virus infections started to drop quickly after four weeks and nearly disappeared after eight weeks, according to the study, which was published in the New England Journal of Medicine.
The researchers, however, said that there appears to be some benefit conferred by a second booster, or fourth dose, of the Pfizer vaccine.
“Overall, these analyses provided evidence for the effectiveness of a fourth vaccine dose against severe illness caused by the omicron variant, as compared with a third dose administered more than 4 months earlier. For confirmed infection, a fourth dose appeared to provide only short-term protection and a modest absolute benefit,” the study’s authors wrote.
They made note of reports indicating that the “protection against hospital admission conferred by a third dose given more than 3 months earlier is substantially lower against the omicron variant than the protection of a fresh third dose against hospital admission for illness caused by the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant.”
“In our study, a fourth dose appeared to increase the protection against severe illness relative to three doses that were administered more than 4 months earlier,” they added.
The authors further stipulated that because the study only covered a two-month period, it’s not clear if the vaccine’s protection against severe illness faded after eight weeks. More studies and follow-up research is needed to make a clear determination, the study said.
The study also focused on adults aged 60 and older. It did not provide data on the second booster’s efficacy on younger groups.
Their findings come as policymakers publicly debate if Americans need additional booster shots. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) held a panel of advisers on Wednesday on the extra COVID-19 vaccine shots.
In March, the FDA issued an emergency use authorization for second boosters of the Pfizer and Moderna shots for individuals aged 50 and older as well as immunocompromised people aged 12 and up. The drug regulator also authorized giving an mRNA vaccine booster for those who received the Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine, which uses an adenovirus.
Several weeks ago, Israeli researchers found in a separate preprint study that the protection from a second Pfizer booster quickly diminished.
Protection against infection rose initially after the fourth dose, reaching 64 percent during the third week, but it rapidly declined to 29 percent by 10 weeks, they found.
“It appears that effectiveness of the fourth dose wanes sooner, similarly to the fact that the third dose wants sooner than the second dose,” the study said.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 04/07/2022 – 19:25 - Four Secret Service Agents Tied To Phony Cop Scandal Suspended
Four Secret Service Agents Tied To Phony Cop Scandal Suspended
Four US Secret Service agents have been suspected over links to two men accused of impersonating federal law enforcement officers, who reportedly gave thousands of dollars worth of gifts to agency personnel – including one assigned to First Lady Jill Biden’s detail, according to Reuters.
Arian Taherzadeh seen in photos submitted in a D.O.J. affidavit.
Courtesy: D.O.JThe two Washington men, Arian Taherzadeh, 40, and Haider Ali, 35, appeared in federal court on Thursday a day after being arrested. Prosecutors said they plan to charge them with conspiracy in a scheme in which they are accused of posing as U.S. Department of Homeland Security agents.
Taherzadeh offered to purchase a $2,000 assault rifle for a Secret Service agent assigned to protect first lady Jill Biden and told other government officials they could have access to what he claimed were “official government vehicles,” the FBI said. -Reuters
According to federal prosecutor Joshua Rothstein, Ali told witnesses he was linked to the Pakistani Intelligence Service (ISI), while US authorities have reportedly recovered a passport from Ali which shows he had three visas to visit Pakistan and two for Iran.
The pair were caught when they lied to a US Postal inspector investigating the March assault of a letter carrier. The men told the inspector they were part of a special police investigative unit looking into undercover gang-work and investigations into the January 6, 2021 riot at the Capitol. They had been posing as such since at least February 2020 according to the report.
Taherzadeh attempted to delete his social media history after he learned he was under investigation, according to Rothstein.
They offered multiple gifts to Secret Service members – as well as a DHS employee – which included rent-free apartments valued at $40,000 per year, as well as iPhones, surveillance systems, a flatscreen TV, an assault rifle case, a generator, a drone and other paraphernalia.
Rothstein said the FBI uncovered evidence after searching several apartments tied to the defendants including a loaded Glock pistol, ammunition, components from disassembled guns and sniper equipment.
In addition, it recovered body armor, gas masks, zip ties, handcuffs, firearm storage cases, a drone, Department of Homeland Security patches and law enforcement clothing, DHS training manuals, surveillance equipment and a binder with a list of residents in the apartment complex.
The Justice Department said the suspects tried to recruit at least one person to join what they claimed was an official DHS “task force.” -Reuters
“Taherzadeh and Ali required that the ‘applicant’ be shot with an Airsoft rifle to evaluate their pain tolerance and reaction,” one FBI agent wrote in a sworn statement. “Subsequent to being shot, the applicant was informed that their hiring was in process. The applicant was also assigned to conduct research on an individual that provided support to the Department of Defense and intelligence community.”
Tyler Durden
Thu, 04/07/2022 – 19:05 - Texas Governor Directs State To Bus Or Fly Illegal Immigrants To DC As Title 42 Ends
Texas Governor Directs State To Bus Or Fly Illegal Immigrants To DC As Title 42 Ends
Authored by Isabel van Brugen via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott on Wednesday said that his government will provide charter buses or flights to transport illegal immigrants released from federal custody into its territory to Washington D.C.
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott speaks at a press conference at the Capitol in Austin, Texas, on June 8, 2021. (Montinique Monroe/Getty Images) The Republican made the remarks during a press briefing, saying that his state on the southern border has been “overwhelmed by hordes of illegal immigrants who are being dropped off by the Biden administration.”
“We are sending [the illegal immigrants] to the United States capital where the Biden administration will be able to more immediately address the needs of the people that they are allowing to come across our border,” Abbott told reporters.
The measure comes in response to the lifting of Title 42 by the Biden administration last week.
The public health provision is a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) order that was invoked in March 2020 under President Donald Trump to minimize the spread of COVID-19 by ensuring that only essential travel occurred at U.S. borders.
It directed that illegal immigrants could be quickly expelled back into Mexico as a pandemic precaution, rather than be processed under Title 8 immigration law, which is a much more protracted process inside the United States.
As the Biden administration prepares to drop the measure on May 23, Border Patrol agents and local officials along the border are bracing for an even greater influx of illegal immigrants.
In a release that followed shortly after the governor’s press conference, Abbott’s office said only those who volunteer will be transported, and must show documentation that they have been processed by the Department of Homeland Security.
“The Biden Administration’s open-border policies have paved the way for dangerous cartels and deadly drugs to pour into the United States, and this crisis will only be made worse by ending Title 42 expulsions,” Abbott said.
“With the end of Title 42 expulsions looming next month, Texas will immediately begin taking unprecedented action to do what no state has done in American history to secure our border,” the governor added.
“The new strategies announced today and next week will further strengthen our already robust response to the Biden border disaster, and we will use any and all lawful powers to curtail the flow of drugs, human traffickers, illegal immigrants, weapons, and other contraband into Texas.”
Abbott also announced additional strategies being deployed immediately to “secure the border.”
A Border Patrol agent picks up four illegal aliens after Kinney County Sheriffs deputies arrested a U.S. citizen smuggler who was transporting them to San Antonio, in Kinney County, Texas, on Oct. 20, 2021. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times) DPS and the Texas Military Department (TMD) are preparing additional boat blockades, deploying razor-wire at low-water crossings and high-traffic areas, and installing container blockades to stem the flow of illegal crossings, Abbott’s office said.
The state may announce additional policies in the coming weeks to “respond to the expected surge in illegal immigration,” the governor’s office added.
Charlotte Cuthbertson contributed to this report.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 04/07/2022 – 18:45 - China Sides With Russia During Key Vote At UN Human Rights Panel
China Sides With Russia During Key Vote At UN Human Rights Panel
The UN General Assembly voted Thursday to suspend Russia from the UN Human Rights council due over what the assembly cited as human rights violations and the humanitarian crisis stemming from its invasion of Ukraine.
There were 93 votes in favor of the suspension, 24 against and 58 abstentions. The resolution cited the power of the assembly to “suspend the rights of membership in the Human Rights Council of a member of the Council that commits gross and systematic violations of human rights.”
Getty Images/AFP The draft of the resolution further said there was “grave concern” following reports of “gross and systematic violations and abuses of human rights” and “violations of international humanitarian law”.
The US led the charge to achieve the two-thirds vote needed, with Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield saying ahead of the vote, “Russia should not have a position of authority in a body whose purpose – whose very purpose – is to promote respect for human rights. Not only is it the height of hypocrisy – it is dangerous.” She said further: “Every day, we see more and more how little Russia respects human rights.”
Ukraine’s ambassador to the United Nations, Sergiy Kyslytsya, also said just before the vote: “Now the world has come to a crucial juncture. We witness that our liner is going through treacherous fog towards deadly icebergs. It might seem that we should have named it the Titanic instead of the Human Rights Council. … We need to take an action today to save the council from sinking.”
Notably China was Russia’s most powerful backer, voting against the resolution. Also notable is that India abstained.
According to Newsweek and The Associated Press, Russia had made threats to multiple countries over how a “yes” vote might alter relations:
The vote by China to back Russia comes shortly after the Associated Press reported that Russia threatened several nations to vote against the resolution on Thursday. According to the Associated Press, Russia told several nations that voting in favor of the resolution or abstaining from the vote would be considered an “unfriendly gesture” and alter that country’s relationship with Russia.
“Belarus, China, Iran, Russia and Syria were among the U.N. members that voted against the resolution. India abstained from voting,” NBC reported. Cuba was also among those voting “no” to the resolution.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 04/07/2022 – 18:25
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