Mar 08

Today’s News 8th March 2020

  • All Hospital Beds In The US Will Be Filled With Patients 'By About May 8th' Due To Coronavirus: Analysis
    All Hospital Beds In The US Will Be Filled With Patients ‘By About May 8th’ Due To Coronavirus: Analysis

    A sobering analysis of how coronavirus is likely to impact the US healthcare system suggests that hospitals will be quickly overwhelmed with patients, and that all available beds will be filled by around May 8th if the virus tracks with Italy’s figures and 10% of patients require an ICU.

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    Medical workers in protective suits attend to coronavirus patients in the intensive care unit of a designated hospital in Wuhan, in China’s Hubei province, last week. (China Daily/Reuters)

    Of note, the Straits Times reported last week that thousands of people were waiting for hospital beds in South Korea as the disease surges.

    Liz Specht, a PhD in biology and the associate director of Science and Technology for the Good Food Institute laid out her concerns in a lengthy Twitter thread on Friday, which you can see here on Twitter, or continue reading below.

    Continued: 

    • We can expect that we’ll continue to see a doubling of cases every 6 days (this is a typical doubling time across several epidemiological studies). Here I mean *actual* cases. Confirmed cases may appear to rise faster in the short term due to new test kit rollouts.
    • We’re looking at about 1M US cases by the end of April, 2M by ~May 5, 4M by ~May 11, and so on. Exponentials are hard to grasp, but this is how they go.
    • As the healthcare system begins to saturate under this case load, it will become increasingly hard to detect, track, and contain new transmission chains. In absence of extreme interventions, this likely won’t slow significantly until hitting >>1% of susceptible population.
    • What does a case load of this size mean for healthcare system? We’ll examine just two factors — hospital beds and masks — among many, many other things that will be impacted.
    • The US has about 2.8 hospital beds per 1000 people. With a population of 330M, this is ~1M beds. At any given time, 65% of those beds are already occupied. That leaves about 330k beds available nationwide (perhaps a bit fewer this time of year with regular flu season, etc).
    • Let’s trust Italy’s numbers and assume that about 10% of cases are serious enough to require hospitalization. (Keep in mind that for many patients, hospitalization lasts for *weeks* — in other words, turnover will be *very* slow as beds fill with COVID19 patients).
    • By this estimate, by about May 8th, all open hospital beds in the US will be filled. (This says nothing, of course, about whether these beds are suitable for isolation of patients with a highly infectious virus.)
    • If we’re wrong by a factor of two regarding the fraction of severe cases, that only changes the timeline of bed saturation by 6 days in either direction. If 20% of cases require hospitalization, we run out of beds by ~May 2nd.
    • If only 5% of cases require it, we can make it until ~May 14th. 2.5% gets us to May 20th. This, of course, assumes that there is no uptick in demand for beds from *other* (non-COVID19) causes, which seems like a dubious assumption.
    • As healthcare system becomes increasingly burdened, Rx shortages, etc, people w/ chronic conditions that are normally well-managed may find themselves slipping into severe states of medical distress requiring intensive care & hospitalization. But let’s ignore that for now.
    • Alright, so that’s beds. Now masks. Feds say we have a national stockpile of 12M N95 masks and 30M surgical masks (which are not ideal, but better than nothing).
    • There are about 18M healthcare workers in the US. Let’s assume only 6M HCW are working on any given day. (This is likely an underestimate as most people work most days of the week, but again, I’m playing conservative at every turn.)
    • As COVID19 cases saturate virtually every state and county, which seems likely to happen any day now, it will soon be irresponsible for all HCWs to not wear a mask. These HCWs would burn through N95 stockpile in 2 days if each HCW only got ONE mask per day.
    • One per day would be neither sanitary nor pragmatic, though this is indeed what we saw in Wuhan, with HCWs collapsing on their shift from dehydration because they were trying to avoid changing their PPE suits as they cannot be reused.
    • How quickly could we ramp up production of new masks? Not very fast at all. The vast majority are manufactured overseas, almost all in China. Even when manufactured here in US, the raw materials are predominantly from overseas… again, predominantly from China.
    • Keep in mind that all countries globally will be going through the exact same crises and shortages simultaneously. We can’t force trade in our favor.
    • Now consider how these 2 factors – bed and mask shortages – compound each other’s severity. Full hospitals + few masks + HCWs running around between beds without proper PPE = very bad mix.
    • HCWs are already getting infected even w/ access to full PPE. In the face of PPE limitations this severe, it’s only a matter of time. HCWs will start dropping from the workforce for weeks at a time, leading to a shortage of HCWs that then further compounds both issues above.
    • We could go on and on about thousands of factors – # of ventilators, or even simple things like saline drip bags. You see where this is going.
    • Importantly, I cannot stress this enough: even if I’m wrong – even VERY wrong – about core assumptions like % of severe cases or current case #, it only changes the timeline by days or weeks. This is how exponential growth in an immunologically naïve population works.
    • Undeserved panic does no one any good. But neither does ill-informed complacency. It’s wrong to assuage the public by saying “only 2% will die.” People aren’t adequately grasping the national and global systemic burden wrought by this swift-moving of a disease.
    • I’m an engineer. This is what my mind does all day: I run back-of-the-envelope calculations to try to estimate order-of-magnitude impacts. I’ve been on high alarm about this disease since ~Jan 19 after reading clinical indicators in the first papers emerging from Wuhan.
    • Nothing in the last 6 weeks has dampened my alarm in the slightest. To the contrary, we’re seeing abject refusal of many countries to adequately respond or prepare. Of course some of these estimates will be wrong, even substantially wrong.
    • But I have no reason to think they’ll be orders-of-magnitude wrong. Even if your personal risk of death is very, very low, don’t mock decisions like canceling events or closing workplaces as undue “panic”.
    • These measures are the bare minimum we should be doing to try to shift the peak – to slow the rise in cases so that healthcare systems are less overwhelmed. Each day that we can delay an extra case is a big win for the HC system.
    • And yes, you really should prepare to buckle down for a bit. All services and supply chains will be impacted. Why risk the stress of being ill-prepared?
    • Worst case, I’m massively wrong and you now have a huge bag of rice and black beans to burn through over the next few months and enough Robitussin to trip out.
    • One more thought: you’ve probably seen multiple respected epidemiologists have estimated that 20-70% of world will be infected within the next year. If you use 6-day doubling rate I mentioned above, we land at ~2-6 billion infected by sometime in July of this year.
    • Obviously I think the doubling time will start to slow once a sizeable fraction of the population has been infected, simply because of herd immunity and a smaller susceptible population.
    • But take the scenarios above (full beds, no PPE, etc, at just 1% of the US population infected) and stretch them out over just a couple extra months.
    • That timeline roughly fits with consensus end-game numbers from these highly esteemed epidemiologists. Again, we’re talking about discrepancies of mere days or weeks one direction or another, but not disagreements in the overall magnitude of the challenge.
    • This is not some hypothetical, fear-mongering, worst-case scenario. This is reality, as far as anyone can tell with the current available data.
    • That’s all for now. Standard disclaimers apply: I’m a PhD biologist but *not* an epidemiologist. Thoughts my own. Yadda yadda. Stay safe out there. /end

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    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 03/07/2020 – 23:22

  • How To Avoid Getting Infected By The Coronavirus
    How To Avoid Getting Infected By The Coronavirus

    As worldwide coronavirus cases blow past 100,000 sickened, the question on everyone’s mind is: “How do I avoid getting infected?”

    Peak Prosperity’s Chris Martenson goes through the best steps for self-protection in this video (jump to the 35m:10s mark for his summary):

    Crazy infectious with a serious complication rate near 15% and a case fatality rate of over 3%, many of us are likely to catch this virus, and most of us will probably know at least one person who dies from it.

    And with that many sick people, the health care systems around the world are going to be overwhelmed. Even if you don’t have the virus, you still may not be able to get critical care for other health emergencies (sickness, injury, baby delivery, etc)

    Chris shares some of the dozens of stories we’re receiving from health practitioners all over the world who feel shocked and betrayed by how poorly their hospitals are prepared for what’s coming.

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    So take steps now to increase your odds of being one of those who avoids covid-19 altogether.

    Reading the coronavirus preparation megathreads available for free on PeakProsperity.com is a great way to get started:

    1. Coronavirus: Sanitation, PPE and Self Quarantine Megathread

    2. Coronavirus: Medicinals, Herbals and Supplements Megathread

    3. Coronavirus: Home Prep, Deep Pantry & Gardening Megathread

    If you’re one of the many new readers here on Peak Prosperity, be sure you’re up-to-date on developments with the coronavirus. All of our latest covid-19 video updates, podcasts and articles can be accessed here for free.

    And here’s a brief list of the more recent material that Chris and I have published for our premium subscribers, to give you a sense of what’s behind the paywall (free executive summary, enrollment required for full access)


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 03/07/2020 – 23:15

  • 'Grand Princess' Passenger Who Died Of Covid-19 Probably Caught The Virus In California, Carnival Says
    ‘Grand Princess’ Passenger Who Died Of Covid-19 Probably Caught The Virus In California, Carnival Says

    The latest alarming twist in the ‘Grand Princess’ saga is that the 71-year-old former passenger who died in California’s Placer County may have already been infected with the virus when he boarded, meaning that the virus may have been circulating in northern California as early as late January.

    It’s certainly a disturbing discovery as officials in California and Washington State have stumbled upon an alarming rash of potentially infected individuals many of whom have been unable to secure a test, even though federal officials said Saturday that tests are being shipped.

    Though, as USA Today points out, this is only a theory at this point; investigators stressed that nothing has been confirmed. That would also seriously undermine the Trump Administration’s response, as President Trump has at times seemed dismissive of the threat posed by the virus, something that Democrats are already exploiting for political points, even as the administration is “catching up” – in the words of former FDA director Dr. Scott Gottlieb.

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    However, “if true, it could mean there was so-called community spread of the virus in California earlier than authorities have previously disclosed,” one official said.

    During a conference call with reporters on Saturday evening, Carnival Corp Chief Medical Officer Grant Tarling said the man boarded the ship in San Francisco on Feb. 11, when it set sail for Mexico.

    Tarling said the man sought medical treatment from the ship’s medical center on Feb. 20, when he reported symptoms of an “acute respiratory illness” for about a week.

    Since the virus has an incubation of roughly five to six days for the first symptoms to emerge, it’s reasonable to suspect that he picked it up before boarding, meaning it was likely acquired in Cali then brought on board the ship. 

    “We believe this case was community acquired in California and brought on the ship,” Tarling said.

    Interestingly, Placer County health officials are disputing the company’s claim: They’re insisting he probably picked up the virus aboard the cruise.

    “The Placer County health officer, however, disputed Tarling’s statement and said the passenger probably contracted the virus that causes the COVID-19 disease while on the cruise.”

    Is this just the latest example of authorities refusing to accept the true gravity of the situation?


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 03/07/2020 – 23:10

  • Forbidden Parenting
    Forbidden Parenting

    Authored by John Stossel via Townhall.com,

    South Carolina mom Debra Harrell worked at McDonald’s.

    She couldn’t afford day care for Regina, her 9-year-old daughter, so she took her to work.

    But Regina was bored at McDonald’s.

    One day, she asked if she could just play in the neighborhood park instead.

    “I felt safe there,” tells me in my new video, “because I was with my friends and their parents.”

    “She had her cellphone, a pocketbook with money in it,” says Debra.

    “She had everything she needed.”

    Regina was happy. Debra was happy.

    But one parent asked Regina where her mom was, and then called the police. Officers went to McDonald’s and arrested Debra.

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    In jail, they berated her.

    “You can’t leave a child who is 9 years old in the park by herself!” said one officer. “What if some sex offender came by?”

    People interviewed by the media were also outraged.

    “What if a man came and just snatched her?” asked one.

    “This day and time, you never know who’s around!” said another.

    But what are they talking about?

    Crime in America is way down, half what it was in the ’90s. Reports of missing children are also down.

    If kids are kidnapped or molested, it’s almost always by a relative or an acquaintance, not by a stranger in a park.

    Nevertheless, prosecutors charged Debra Harrell with “willful abandonment of a child,” a crime that carries up to a 10-year sentence.

    They also took Regina away from her mom — for two weeks.

    “I would cry as night because I was really scared,” Regina told me. “I didn’t know where I was, or what was going on.”

    Fortunately, attorney Robert Phillips took Debra’s case for free. He didn’t like the way police and media portrayed her.

    “Here was this black female that society gives a hard time. ‘Welfare queens, living at home, not getting a job!’ Well, that’s what she was doing,” he said.

    “She was out working, trying the best she could to take care of her child. And now we’re beating her up because we didn’t like the way she took care of her child.”

    The cops said that Harrell should have sent her daughter to day care. But even if she could have afforded it, it’s not clear that day care is safer.

    “We found 42 incidents of sexual molestations, rapes in day cares,” said Phillips.

    “We couldn’t find (in South Carolina in the last 20 years) a single abduction in a park.”

    Philips blames people in my business for scaring people about the wrong things.

    “The media has brought up this ‘stranger danger’ to where, if you’re not under the protective wings of mom and dad 24/7, then you’re exposing your child to some unknown danger.”

    That has frightened police and child welfare workers into taking absurd steps when parents leave children alone.

    In Maryland, police accused parents of child neglect for letting their kids roam around their neighborhood.

    In Kentucky, after police reported a mom who left her kids in the car while she dashed into a store, child welfare workers strip-searched the kids to make sure they weren’t being abused.

    This doesn’t protect kids. It mostly scares parents into depriving their kids of chances to learn.

    “When you don’t let them spread their wings, that’s when they get in trouble!” says Debra.

    She was fortunate that her case got enough attention that even Nikki Haley, then South Carolina’s governor, asked that Regina be given back to her mom.

    Prosecutors finally dropped the child abandonment charge.

    It’s just not right that when stranger kidnappings are increasingly rare, police and child welfare workers are more eager to punish parents who let kids play on their own.

    “A Utah law guarantees that giving kids some reasonable independence isn’t ‘neglect,'” says Lenore Skenazy, of the nonprofit Let Grow, “More states need this!”

    Of course, some parents are so neglectful that government should intervene.

    But as lawyer Phillips put it, they should intervene “only if you are subjecting your child to a real harm. We should not have unreasonable intrusions by the government telling us every little detail how to raise our children.”


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 03/07/2020 – 22:40

  • Joe Biden In 2020 Duplicates Hillary Clinton In 2016
    Joe Biden In 2020 Duplicates Hillary Clinton In 2016

    Authored by Eric Zuesse via The Saker Blog,

    Hillary Clinton, of course, received the Democratic Party nomination in 2016 and was widely expected to beat Trump but she lost to him (though she won California by 4,269,978 in the popular vote, and so beat Trump by 2,864,974 in the nationwide popular vote, while she lost all other states by 1,405,002 votes, and so she would have been California’s President if she had won, but the rest of the nation wouldn’t have been happy).

    Among the top reasons why Democrats in primaries and caucuses voted for Clinton was that they thought she would have a higher likelihood of beating the Republican nominee than Sanders did. This was the impression that the Democratic National Committee spread, and the Party’s voters believed in it.

    However, by the time when Election Day rolled around, the passion that Republicans felt for their nominee, Trump, was much stronger than was the passion that Democrats felt for their nominee, Clinton. During the Democratic primaries, polls were showing that the Democrats who were voting for Sanders to become their Party’s nominee were far more passionate in their support of him than was the case regarding the Democrats who were voting for Clinton to become the Democratic nominee. And nobody questions that Trump was the passion-candidate in the Republican Party’s primaries and caucuses.

    On 1 May 2017, McClatchy newspapers headlined “Democrats say they now know exactly why Clinton lost” and reported that,

    A select group of top Democratic Party strategists have used new data about last year’s presidential election to reach a startling conclusion about why Hillary Clinton lost. Now they just need to persuade the rest of the party they’re right.

    Many Democrats have a shorthand explanation for Clinton’s defeat: Her base didn’t turn out, Donald Trump’s did and the difference was too much to overcome.

    But new information shows that Clinton had a much bigger problem with voters who had supported President Barack Obama in 2012 but backed Trump four years later.

    Those Obama-Trump voters, in fact, effectively accounted for more than two-thirds of the reason Clinton lost, according to Matt Canter, a senior vice president of the Democratic political firm Global Strategy Group. In his group’s analysis, about 70 percent of Clinton’s failure to reach Obama’s vote total in 2012 was because she lost these voters. …

    Although Clinton has blamed her loss on Putin, and on Sanders — and perhaps if Biden wins the nomination he will likewise blame Putin and Sanders if he subsequently loses to Trump — the passion factor is actually much stronger an influence on whom the winner of an electoral contest will be than losing candidates wish to admit or publicly acknowledge; and it could turn out to be the case in 2020, just the same as it did in 2016.

    On 24 August 2017, NPR bannered “Here’s How Many Bernie Sanders Supporters Ultimately Voted For Trump” and reported that,

    “12 percent of people who voted for Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., in the 2016 Democratic presidential primaries voted for President Trump in the general election. That is according to the data from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES) — a massive election survey of around 50,000 people.”

    That study was done for CCES by Brian Shaffner of Tufts and Harvard Universities, who also reported that:

    • WI: 9% of Sanders voters voted for Trump.

    • MI: 8% of Sanders voters voted for Trump.

    • PA: 16% of Sanders voters voted for Trump.

    Shaffner failed, however, to mention that Sanders beat Clinton in Wisconsin and won 570,192 votes in the Democratic primary there, and that Trump beat Clinton there by 22,748 votes, and that 9% of Sanders’s voters having voted for Trump there constituted 51,317 Sanders-Trump voters, and that this was 2.26 times as high as was Trump’s 22,747-vote victory-margin in Wisconsin, and, consequently: Sanders’s voters who voted for Trump were 2.26 times Trump’s victory-margin against Clinton there; so, clearly, Trump became President because of the huge number of Sanders voters who voted for Trump against Clinton. And it was the same thing that happened in each of the other two crucial states that Trump won in 2016.

    Sanders likewise beat Clinton in Michigan and won 598,943 votes in the Democratic primary there, and Trump beat Clinton there by 10,704 votes, and 8% of Sanders voters having voted for Trump there constituted 47,915 Sanders-Trump voters, and this was 4.47 times as high as was Trump’s victory-margin in Michigan, so that Sanders’s voters who voted for Trump were 4.47 times Trump’s victory-margin against Clinton there.

    Similarly, though Clinton beat Sanders in Pennsylvania, where Sanders won 731,881 votes in the Democratic primary, Trump beat Clinton there by 44,292 votes, and 16% of Sanders voters having voted for Trump there constituted 117,101 Sanders-Trump voters, and this was 2.64 times as high as Trump’s victory-margin in Pennsylvania, so that Sanders’s voters who voted for Trump were 2.64 times Trump’s victory-margin against Clinton there.

    Of course, virtually all of the primary voters for Sanders would have been voting against Trump if Sanders had been the Democratic National Committee’s choice as the nominee instead of Clinton, whom they chose instead. By contrast, almost none of Clinton’s voters in the primaries would have voted against Clinton and for Trump in the final election (though some of them would have voted third-party or not at all — just as happened with Clinton’s actually being the Democratic nominee). Sanders would have overwhelmingly beaten Trump according to all of the nationally-polled match-ups — by far larger margins in a Sanders-Trump contest than Clinton was shown likely to in a Trump-Clinton contest.

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    The DNC basically chose the overwhelmingly weaker nominee (and sometimes they even did it blatantly), and so they lost to Trump instead of to have their billionaire donors lose to Sanders and to the American public by Sanders becoming the nominee and then the President. Keeping the support from their billionaire donors was the DNC’s top priority, in 2016. Of course, America’s voting public generally don’t know that both the DNC and the RNC are far more committed to keeping the support from their billionaire donors than they are committed to winning elections. This is why those voters pay close heed to what their Party’s leaders say about which candidates are ‘electable’ and which ones aren’t.

    The voters don’t understand how politics actually works, in today’s America — they think that winning the current general election is a Party official’s top priority. They think that Party professionals are professionals at selecting winners, but instead Party professionals are professionals at pleasing their Party’s billionaires. If a voter wants to please him or her self instead of please a group of billionaires, that voter ought to vote for whomever that voter thinks would best serve that voter and not serve any group of billionaires

    As the Huffington Post reported on March 4th, the day after Joe Biden’s huge Super-Tuesday win, “‘Voters liked both candidates but clearly consolidated around the one they saw as most electable,’ said Jared Leopold, who was the communications director for the Democratic Governors’ Association during the race. ‘The intraparty ideological fight pales in comparison to the thirst to beat Donald Trump and his buddies.’”

    Those people’s top concern is to please the few individuals who fund their careers. Winning the current electoral contest isn’t actually their #1 concern, though voters think it is. The Party professionals have a longer-term, personally career-oriented, goal in mind — pleasing their bosses’ bosses.

    *  *  *

    Investigative historian Eric Zuesse is the author, most recently, of  They’re Not Even Close: The Democratic vs. Republican Economic Records, 1910-2010, and of  CHRIST’S VENTRILOQUISTS: The Event that Created Christianity.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 03/07/2020 – 22:10

  • Elon Musk Says Panic About Coronavirus, Which Has Killed Over 3,400, Is "Dumb"
    Elon Musk Says Panic About Coronavirus, Which Has Killed Over 3,400, Is “Dumb”

    It probably wouldn’t be a global news item if the world’s greatest genius-cum subsidy addict-cum securities fraudster didn’t weigh in with his two cents about it on Twitter. Such was the case with Elon Musk and the ongoing coronavirus saga Friday. Musk, perhaps annoyed that the fatal virus was stealing his spotlight, or perhaps finally coming to terms with the harsh reality that a recession could wind up finally being the straw that breaks his camel’s back, just had to opine about coronavirus on Friday – and, of course, it had to stand at odds with what everything the global health community has said.

    As doctors globally speak out about how healthcare systems are wildly unprepared for the coming pandemic – with Italian doctors urging the rest of the world to hunker down and the U.S. healthcare system reportedly preparing for millions of cases, the world’s favorite non-doctor, non-physicist, non-engineer but-somehow-still-a-genius thought as hard as he could and forced out one of his biggest brain farts yet on Twitter on Friday, simply saying “The coronavirus panic is dumb”.

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    Alas, Musk’s tweeterpretation of events stands at odds with people who actually know what they’re talking about, despite garnering over a million likes in a little over 24 hours.

    Meanwhile, the novel coronavirus has reached pandemic levels, has infected over 100 people in Musk’s home state of California, has infected nearly 100,000 people globally and has killed more than 3,400 people. As major Silicon Valley players like Facebook, Microsoft and Amazon all have confirmed at least one employee has tested positive, Musk’s interpretation of the events simply stands at odds with reality. Which, we guess, is what we should be used to with Musk at this point anyway.

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    Meanwhile, the coronavirus isn’t “dumb” enough for Tesla to not use it as a crutch when their inevitably poor numbers start rolling in during subsequent quarters. “Tesla has acknowledged that the coronavirus outbreak may have a material adverse impact on its business,” CNBC said Friday.

    So, which is it, Elon – “dumb” or “material”?

    Musk, of course, has no background in virology or medicine. But one person who does, Richard Hatchett, the doctor leading efforts to find a vaccine for coronavirus, said on Friday: “This is the most frightening disease I’ve ever encountered in my career.”

    In response to the “dumb” tweet, social media did its job and immediately put Musk on blast for his comments:

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    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 03/07/2020 – 21:40

  • Italy Places Milan Region Under Quarantine As First Covid-19-Linked Death Reported In Latin America: Live Updates
    Italy Places Milan Region Under Quarantine As First Covid-19-Linked Death Reported In Latin America: Live Updates

    Summary:

    • 21 cases confirmed aboard ‘Grand Princess’
    • First death reported in Latin America
    • 2 dozen American tourists quarantined on cruise ship
    • Illinois confirms sixth case, shuts Chicago school
    • South Korea reports 367 new cases raising total to 7,134
    • US Marine in Virginia catches coronavirus
    • San Francisco confirms six new cases
    • Italy quarantines half the country
    • British Columbia confirms six cases
    • Spain quarantines town
    • First case in Washington DC
    • US death toll hits 19 as two more cases in WA.
    • New York cases hit 76
    • Australia reports third death

    * * *

    Update (2000ET): Though the coronavirus has spread more slowly across the warmer climate of Latin America, the first fatality linked to Covid-19 on the continent has just been reported by the Argentinian health ministry.

    • ARGENTINA CONFIRMS FIRST DEATH IN LATIN AMERICA OF PATIENT DIAGNOSED WITH CORONAVIRUS – HEALTH MINISTRY STATEMENT

    In other news, the Washington Post reports that two dozen American tourists are being quarantined on a cruise ship in the Egyptian city of Luxor, according to two passengers, as Egyptina health officials confirmed 33 new cases of the virus on Saturday.

    South Korea, meanwhile, just reported another 367 Covid-19 cases, bringing the total to 7,134.

    According to the Chicago Tribune, students and staff at a Chicago public school have been asked to stay home next week while the school undergoes a “deep clean”. They’ve also been advised to stay at home and not leave until mid-March, after a classroom assistant – a previous passenger on the Grand Princess before disembarking on Feb. 21.

    The special education teacher at Vaughn Occupational High School in Portage Park has been hospitalized since becoming the sixth positive case in the state of Illinois – with all the cases having been identified in Cook County.

    Students and staff at the school have been asked to stay in self-quarantine until March 18, unless directed otherwise by the department of public health.

    Looking back, over the last 24 hours, four more deaths have been recorded in the US, two in Florida, and two in Washington State from the same Kirkland nursing home as earlier deaths.

    The first case confirmed in Washington DC has been described as a resident in his 50s who appears to have contracted the virus in late February, when he started feeling ill. Health officials said the man likely didn’t attend the AIPAC conference where several infected individuals attended.

    In other US news, a US Marine in Virginia has tested positive at Fort Belavoir. Officials at Fort Belvoir Community Hospital and the Virginia Department of Health are working with state and federal officials to take care of the soldier and ensure the virus doesn’t spread.

    Gov. Ralph Northam has been briefed on the situation and the state currently says the risk to the public is low, according to NBC News.

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    Update (1740ET): Six more San Francisco residents have tested positive for coronavirus on Saturday, bringing the total case count in the city to eight, public health officials said, according to the San Francisco Chronicle.

    All of the people who were newly diagnosed are isolating at home and in good condition, the San Francisco Department of Public Health said. The previous two patients were both hospitalized.

    Two of the new patients are in their 20s, three are in their 40s, and the sixth person is in his or her 50s. Three of the patients are women and three are men. All of them have had contact with someone who already has been diagnosed with COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus, public health officials said.

    “These newly confirmed cases are an indication of the increasing circulation of coronavirus in the community, as expected, given the patterns in our state, region and our own city,” Dr. Grant Colfax, director of health, said in a statement.

    Washington DC Mayor Muriel Bowser announced on twitter that the first case has been confirmed in the nation’s capital.

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    Meanwhile, in Australia, NSW Health has confirmed that a man in his 80s has died in a Sydney hospital, and has tested positive for Covid-19, making him the third coronavirus-related death in Australia. Chief Health Officer Dr. Kerry Chant passed on sympathies to the family of the patient.

    * * *

    Update (1620ET): Canadian officials have confirmed six new cases of the virus in British Columbia on Saturday, bringing the total cases in Canada to 57.

    Two of the new cases were passengers on the Grand Princess cruise ship, traveling from between Feb 11 – 21, Adrian Dix, minister of health, and Dr. Bonnie Henry, British Columbia’s provincial health officer said in a press statement Saturday.

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    Update (1530ET): Washington state health officials have confirmed another 2 deaths, raising the US death toll to 19.

    • SEATTLE, KING COUNTY REPORT 13 NEW VIRUS CASES; TOTAL AT 71
    • SEATTLE, KING COUNTY REPORTS 2 ADDITIONAL DEATHS FROM VIRUS
    • SEATTLE, KING COUNTY SAYS TOTAL DEATHS AT 15 FROM VIRUS

    Here’s an updated map of US cases, courtesy of the Washington Post.

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    In addition to the cancellation of SXSW in Austin, which has led to an outcry about how going a year without the massive marketing circlejerk could cause the city’s economy to implode.

    Here’s the list of cases broken down by state:

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    * * *

    Update (1420ET): Following in the footsteps of China and South Korea, both of which eventually locked down the local epicenter(s) of the coronavirus breakout by imposing draconian quasi-quaratines, moments ago Italy announced that on the day the number of new cases in the country exploded by 1,247 hitting a total of 5,883, the federal government has placed the entire region of Lombardy, the province with the most Italian coronavirus infections, on lockdown.   

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    The government has drafted a decree (which will likely be announced this evening in Rome) during an emergency working session that will, according to reports, close all ski resorts, museums and other cultural attractions, and – most importantly – orders that nobody enter or leave the region of Lombardy, as well as 11 other provinces in northern and central Italy.

    The Italian government has faced pressure to step up controls as travelers visiting Italy have carried the virus across Europe, Asia and the Middle East, even to North and South America.

    Amazingly, the lockdown will last until April 3, meaning for nearly a month, the most productive region of the Italian economy will be effectively shuttered.

    South Korea has imposed similar measures in Daegu, the epicenter of what has become the worst outbreak outside China. And at one point 760 million Chinese were subjected to some level of restrictions on movement (with many required to remain inside their homes at all times with only special exceptions).

    And although South Korea is widely considered home to the biggest outbreak outside China, Italy has reported 233 deaths, the largest number of deaths outside China and Iran.

    The decree details from Reuters:

    • ITALY DRAFT DECREE TELLS PEOPLE NOT TO ENTER OR LEAVE REGION OF LOMBARDY AND 11 PROVINCES IN OTHER REGIONS
    • ITALY’S DRAFT DECREE SAYS SCHOOLS IN LOMBARDY AND 11 PROVINCES WILL REMAIN CLOSED UNTIL AT LEAST APRIL 3
    • ITALY DRAFT DECREE ON CORONAVIRUS SHOWS NEW RESTRICTIVE MEASURES FOR NEW AREAS IN REGIONS OF LOMBARDY, VENETO, EMILIA AND PIEDMONT
    • ITALY DRAFT DECREE URGES PEOPLE NOT TO MOVE AROUND INSIDE AREAS COVERED BY DECREE EXCEPT FOR ESSENTIAL WORKING NEEDS AND EMERGENCIES
    • ITALY DRAFT DECREE SAYS ALL LEAVE FOR HEALTHCARE WORKERS CANCELLED IN LOMBARDY AND 11 PROVINCES
    • ITALY DRAFT DECREE SAYS ALL GYMS, SWIMMING POOLS, HEALTH CENTRES AND SPAS TO CLOSE IN THE SAME AREAS
    • ITALY’S DRAFT DECREE CLOSES ALL SKI RESORTS, MUSEUMS, CULTURAL CENTRES IN SAME AREAS
    • ITALY’S DRAFT DECREE SAYS ALL SHOPPING CENTRES TO CLOSE AT WEEKENDS IN SAME AREAS
    • ITALY’S DRAFT DECREE CLOSES ALL SKI RESORTS, MUSEUMS, CULTURAL CENTRES IN SAME AREAS

    Elsewhere in Europe, health authorities on the small Mediterranean island nation of Malta have raised the number of people with coronavirus to three, after the parents of the girl first infected tested positive too.

    Iran also reported a more than 1,200 case jump in infections to a total of 5,823.

    One computer scientist who has been modeling outbreaks around the world said Italy’s spread has produced “one of the most alarming charts I have ever seen.”

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    Earlier in the day on Saturday, Spanish pol

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    According to the Associated Press, the Spanish government has deployed police in a northern town to help enforce a home quarantine placed on a neighborhood with a high number of residents infected by the virus. The regional government of La Rioja said Saturday that the extra measures have been taken to contain the outbreak in Haro, a town of 11,000 residents, where the majority of the 39 cases in the region are located.

    * * *

    Update (1350ET): Washington state officials are reportedly considering taking over a nursing home in Kirkland where at least six residents have died, possibly the first example in US history of the federal government nationalizing a nursing home, WSJ reports.

    * * *

    Update (1345ET): French health officials have reported another 233 cases, bringing the country-wide total to 949. Of those, 16 patients have died, up 5 from 11.

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    * * *

    Update (1255ET): Gov Cuomo has declared a state of emergency in New York after 21 new cases of Covid-19 were confirmed, bringing the state-wide total to 76, according to NBC 4 New York.

    Seven of the cases are in NYC. Total cases in the tri-state area have hit 80.

    There have been at least 80 total cases found in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut, with the biggest portion of infected patientsin NY’s wealthy Westchester County, just north of the Bronx. There have been 57 people to test positive there, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Saturday, almost all of which are connected to the cluster that started with the midtown Manhattan lawyer Lawrence Garbuz and his family. Ten patients out of the 76 in NY State are currently hospitalized, the rest have been asked to self-quarantine and contact a doctor if their condition worsens, Cuomo said.

    Aside from NYC and Westchester, other cases have been confirmed on Long Island and in Upstate New York’s Saratoga County.

    * * *

    Update (1240ET): Now that every country in Europe has been infected with the virus, Italian health officials confirmed on Saturday that the national death toll has hit 233 after officials reported another 36 deaths.

    • DEATH TOLL IN ITALY OF CORONAVIRUS PATIENTS RISES TO 233 FROM 197 ON FRIDAY
    • TOTAL NUMBER OF CONFIRMED CASES OF CORONAVIRUS IN ITALY RISES TO 5,883 FROM 4,636 ON FRIDAY

    The epicenter of the outbreak in Europe is seeing shit go straight parabolic.

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    Italian government officials announced that they would adopt a new decree on Saturday with measures to to try and stem the contagion, but it’s not clear yet what exactly they’re planning.

    Meanwhile, as more European countries track infected Italians spreading the virus within their borders, Sweden – of all places – is presenting a model of how to swiftly identify and quarantine those who have been exposed. All cases of Swedes who traveled to Northern Italy to ski during the holidays have been tracked, all people who came into contact with the possibly infected have been quarantined.

    Unfortunately, the outbreak is no longer limited to the north of Italy.On Saturday, CNN reports, a US Navy sailor stationed in Naples tested positive for the virus, marking the first case for a US servicemember stationed in Europe.

    The servicemember was stationed at a naval support facility in Naples. They are receiving medical and other support in accordance with CDC guidelines.

    * * *

    Democratic Party leader Nicola Zingarelli, one of the most powerful politicians in Italy, has tested positive for the coronavirus, Italian media reported on Saturday.

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    Zingarelli

    Since the beginning of the outbreak, Italy has been the epicenter of the outbreak in Europe; on Friday, the total number of confirmed cases in the country climbed above 4,500, with 197 deaths confirmed.

    “I have coronavirus too,” Zingaretti said in a video posted on Facebook, adding he was in self-isolation at home and that all the people he had been in contact with in the latest days were being contacted for checks. He said he was well.

    As the outbreak has spread to nearly every country in North America, Asia and Europe. On Friday, Slovakia, the last remaining nation in Europe without any confirmed cases of the virus, confirmed its first case and almost immediately implemented a ban on flights from Italy, which has been blamed for spreading the virus across the continent, per NYT.

    Since the number of new cases being confirmed outside China surpassed the number of new cases being confirmed inside China early last week, South Korea, Italy, Iran and now the US have emerged as the new epicenters, though Europe’s largest economies are all struggling with largely uncontained outbreaks.

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    Across Europe, bureaucrats have been hesitant to suspend Schengen area free-travel, allowing the virus to effortlessly spread across the continent.

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    Italy has been the European country hardest hit by the epidemic, with a total of 4,636 cases and 197 deaths on Friday, and is currently reporting more deaths per day form the virus than any other country in the world.

    The coronavirus death toll in the United States reached 17 when Florida health officials reported two fatalities, the first in the state, late Friday, the Washington Post reports. They were the first deaths recorded outside the West Coast, where Washington State and California have emerged as the hardest hit states.

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    In Iran, officials reported 1,076 new cases of coronavirus and 21 new deaths on Saturday, bringing the total to 5,823 cases and 145 deaths. And a newly elected Iranina MP has died after two dozen Iranian lawmakers were infected, as well as several senior government officials.

    In the Balkans, Bulgaria has closed all schools due to “influenza panic” – even though it’s only reported a handful of suspected cases.

    Across the US, there are more than 300 cases reported (though not yet ‘confirmed’ by the CDC) and at least half of all states have confirmed cases. On Friday, Hawaii, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Connecticut, Nebraska, Indiana, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and South Carolina all confirmed their first cases of the virus. 

    In Connecticut, a hospital employee has tested positive for novel coronavirus, the first case detected in the state after several close calls back in January, per NBC. The patient lives in Westchester County and is currently there under quarantine.

    “We believe she was infected in New York,” said Kerry Eaton, COO of Danbury Hospital.

    As we noted last night, a Hawaii resident who traveled on the Grand Princess but disembarked in Hawaii has been confirmed with the virus.

    Over in the tri-state area, where the virus has spread rapidly, nearly 50 cases have been confirmed (between NYC area, NJ & Connecticut). Here’s a flow-chart showing the progression of infections in the NYC area.

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    Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear confirmed the state’s first case of the virus late Friday afternoon, Kentucky.com reports.

    Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt announced Oklahoma’s first case yesterday during a press conference where he was flanked by health officials. The Tulsa County man had testied positive and is now in quarantine, according to Oklahoma’s Newson6.

    Nebraska Gov. Pete Ricketts and health officials also confirmed their first case on Friday (though a military base in the state hosted some of the evacuees from the ‘Diamond Princess’ and Wuhan). According to Nebraska health officials, the patient was traveling in the UK when she became ill.

    Officials insisted it isn’t a case of ‘community spread’, suggesting she caught the infection abroad.

    The 36-year-old woman from Omaha first checked into the Methodist hospital emergency room Thursday, after presenting with symptoms of pneumonia. Before that, she had relatively mild conditions, KETV reports.

    Indiana officials Friday urged the public to take necessary precautions after reporting the state’s first case of the virus. The person is an adult from Marion County who traveled to Boston where he attended a conference, officials said. He is in stable condition, is self-isolated and does not require hospitalization, according to Indy Star.

    The risk to the public is low, health officials said. They said they have no indications so far that the man transmitted the disease to anyone else. They also said that the diagnosis did not come as a surprise.

    “The question has never been if Indiana would get a case but when we would see one,” said Indiana State Health Commissioner Dr. Kris Box. “This is an isolated case at the time.”

    She was confirmed to be infected on Friday afternoon. She started showing symptoms 10 days before arriving at the hospital, and the state health department is working to find everyone she had contact with.

    Universities, other major institutions and event planners canceled public gatherings and took other steps to combat the rapidly spreading virus. Stanford University said all classes would be conducted online for the remainder of the winter quarter, following the lead of the University of Washington in Seattle. Minutes ago, NBC Bay Area reported that Stanford officials confirmed a faculty member who works in a clinic has tested positive for the virus, while two undergraduates are also under quarantine.

    The biggest news overnight was that Austin’s South by Southwest festival has been cancelled. The cancellation is a huge blow to Austin’s economy – the event is one of the main drivers of Austin’s transformation from a quirky Texas college town to a ‘destination city’ for white middle-class post-grads with no real plans or ambition, other than to maybe work on-set during the next Linklater production.

    Circling back to Iran, two lawmakers have now died, according to the Times of Israel, which cited reports from Iranian state news agency IRNA. 

    An Iranian lawmaker died from the novel coronavirus on Saturday, becoming the latest lawmaker or senior government official to succumb to the deadly respiratory illness in a country that is experiencing probably the most lethal outbreak in the world.

    In California, negotiations between the state and federal officials about where to dock the ‘Grand Princess’, the cruise ship stranded off the cost of San Francisco with at least 21 infected passengers and crew (mostly crew) on board. A state source close to the ongoing negotiations told the LA Times that talks would resume on Friday. The Princess Cruises ship remained at sea last night, but moved 20 nautical miles off the coast for easier delivery of supplies and other ‘logistical reasons’.

    Officials have scrambled to provide updates as quickly as possible, but passengers aboard the ship have taken to the Internet to share their experiences independently. Two women have been posting videos offering their takes on the news. They offered some interesting details about how officials put the pieces together to figure out that the cruise ship might be infected. Notice how the women are clearly ill, but claim to have been tested and come back negative for the virus.

    These two Youtubers shared a copy of the letter they received from the Captain, which was also shared by a Redditor posting in the r/Coronavirus subreddit.

    Here’s the letter:

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    Just like with the Diamond Princess, which reportedly led the staff to work in unbelievably brutal conditions, the staff aboard the Grand Princes, (so far, mostly staff have been infected) are being put in similarly undesirable conditions.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 03/07/2020 – 21:23

  • Forget Covid-19, San Diego Faces Critical Quake Danger From Long-Inactive Faultline
    Forget Covid-19, San Diego Faces Critical Quake Danger From Long-Inactive Faultline

    A 5.5 magnitude earthquake rocked Baja California, Mexico, on Friday night, and was felt as far as San Diego County. San Diegans have had a lot on their mind this past week, from the Covid-19 outbreak to now worrying about when the big earthquake will strike.

    For decades, conventional thinking has always been San Diego County has a lower probability of devastating earthquakes than Los Angeles or San Francisco areas.

    But a new report by the San Diego chapter of the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI), found a fault that runs through the heart of San Diego could be a much more serious problem than previously thought, reported Log Angeles Times.

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    EERI modeled for a 6.9 magnitude earthquake along the Rose Canyon Fault that runs directly through San Diego. What they noticed is that it would have devastating effects on local infrastructures, such as ruptured gas, water, electric, and fiber services between La Jolla and the Silver Strand, cause severe structural damage to tall buildings and lead to the destruction of major bridges across the county. 

    “We’re expecting a large fault rupture, almost six feet, a lot of liquefaction impacts, which basically is softening of the soil that causes a lot of impact to underground infrastructure like water distribution pipes,” said Heidi Tremayne, executive director of the EERI. “We’re worried that coastal communities could really be lacking some basic services for many months after an earthquake of this magnitude.”

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    With an 18% chance that Rose Canyon Fault could trigger a big quake in the next three decades, EERI said damage from it would cost upwards of $38 billion and account for $5.2 billion in lost income for local businesses. 

     

    “In the short term, I would consider getting a group of regional experts together and take a look at these recommendations and determine maybe a way ahead and mitigate some of these things so we’re better prepared if in fact we have an earthquake along this fault,” said Gary Johnston, the chief resilience officer for the San Diego County Office of Emergency Services.

    There’s without any doubt that California as a whole is long overdue for a destructive earthquake. We noted back in December that “very unusual seismic activity” was taking place off the West Coast.

    Seismologists warned about a year ago that California’s seismic activity is in an “earthquake drought.” With fears of large quakes could be nearing. 


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 03/07/2020 – 20:40

  • Amtrak Suspends Some Non-Stop Acela Service Due To Virus  
    Amtrak Suspends Some Non-Stop Acela Service Due To Virus  

    As the Covid-19 outbreak across the US becomes more widespread, and the latest figures are now 308 confirmed cases and 17 deaths as of Friday night. Florida reported a death, making it the first on the East Coast, as millions of Americans are rushing to brick and mortar stores, panic buying food, water, hand sanitizer, and masks. 

    As we’ve seen in China and other hard-hit countries, there’s an easily identifiable blueprint of how the virus forces local economies to grind to a halt. It first starts with limited public gatherings, employees are forced to work at home, businesses close, then the transportation system shutters. 

    The first signs of economic paralysis developed on the East Coast last week, when major US banks started “virus contingency plan” for closing domestic offices should the virus worsen.

    By Friday evening, Amtrak published a statement that said it will suspend the Acela Nonstop service between Washington DC and New York because of reduced demand for travel amid the virus outbreak, reported The Washington Post.

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    Starting next Tuesday, the Acela Nonstop service (Trains 2401, 2402, 2403) will be suspended through May 26. 

    “We are closely monitoring the coronavirus and are taking action based on guidance from public health experts,” Amtrak said. 

    Amtrak cited reduced demand for train service as confirmed cases and deaths have been rising across the country. 

    “We understand you may have concerns, and as a valued customer, we will waive change fees on all existing or new reservations made before April 30, 2020,” Amtrak said. “We will continue to monitor the coronavirus situation closely and adjust this policy as necessary.”

    To sum up, Amtrak suspending some major lines to major banks preparing for the worse in the last week suggests economic paralysis could be developing in the “greatest economy ever” as the virus crisis continues to worsen. This could only mean one thing: a recession is nearing.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 03/07/2020 – 20:10

  • "It's Like Scenes From A Mad Max Movie" – Americans Continue Epic Run On Costco  
    “It’s Like Scenes From A Mad Max Movie” – Americans Continue Epic Run On Costco  

    As concerns of a Covid-19 outbreak increase across the US, Costco stores are experiencing the second weekend of panic-buying of food, water, and hand sanitizers. 

    Last weekend we noted how the “great panic of 2020 is underway” as Americans made a mad dash to Costco stores and other big-box retailers to hoard supplies. Costco CFO Richard Galanti told investors during an earnings call last week that buying panic has “been nuts” adding that  he attributes “this to concerns over the coronavirus.”

    Stock prices for Walmart and Target have also benefited from the spread of the deadly virus, as people preparing for a quarantine situation load up shopping carts with bottled water, canned soup, instant mac and cheese and everything else that they could possibly need to wait out the virus. But the panic-buying has been leading to shortages and leaving people on edge. –WaPo

    On the East Coast, tens of millions of Americans woke up on Saturday morning and heard the news about 44 total confirmed virus cases in New York, with a majority in Westchester, a suburb of NYC. PIX11 News’ Cristian Benavides tweeted a video of the panic that is developing in NYC this morning. He shows a long line of cars waiting to get into a Costco in Astoria, a neighborhood in Queens.

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    ABC13 Houston reported, “We’re seeing extremely long line at the Costco on Richmond this morning. Many people are trying to stock up on sanity items and water amid the coronavirus fears.” 

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    Stamford Plus magazine tweeted a picture of a Costco in Connecticut with “much bigger than usual” crowds. 

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    One Costco shopper was spotted in a hooded bio hazmat suit at an unidentifiable store.

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    One Twitter user said, “Costco employee just told everyone 2 toilet paper items each.”

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    LA Times’ Laura Blasey said the Costco in Arlington, Virginia, looked like “the set of the new Mad Max movie” as hand sanitizers, masks, and rubbing alcohol were all sold out. 

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    Panic buying was also spotted at Costco in Beacon Hill, Boston.

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    More purchase limits on certain products were seen.

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    A Costco in Los Angeles this morning saw long lines wrapping around the parking lot. 

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    “Costco is lit today” – more buying panic at another Costco tweeted one user. 

    Buying panic was also seen at a Costco in the UK.

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    Another Costco in Canada with long lines — and the store hasn’t even opened. 

    One Twitter user reported that a line spans “down one whole aisle and around to the next”  developed inside one Costco as people are waiting on today’s delivery of goods. 

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    The rising fears of a pandemic as confirmed virus cases and deaths soar will only force more and more Americans to big-box retailers to hoard food and water. This soon could result in a shortage of goods.  

    We warned you several years ago that Venezuela was coming to America. Little did we know it would be caused by a virus.

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      Tyler Durden

      Sat, 03/07/2020 – 20:01

    • Saudi Arabia Starts All-Out Oil War: MbS Destroys OPEC By Flooding Market, Slashing Oil Prices
      Saudi Arabia Starts All-Out Oil War: MbS Destroys OPEC By Flooding Market, Slashing Oil Prices

      With the commodity world still smarting from the Nov 2014 Saudi decision to (temporarily) break apart OPEC, and flood the market with oil in (failed) hopes of crushing US shale producers (who survived thanks to generous banks extending loan terms and even more generous buyers of junk bonds), which nonetheless resulted in a painful manufacturing recession as the price of Brent cratered as low as the mid-$20’s in late 2015/early 2016, on Saturday, Saudi Arabia launched its second scorched earth, or rather scorched oil campaign in 6 years. And this time there will be blood.

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      Following Friday’s shocking collapse of OPEC+, when Russia and Riyadh were unable to reach an agreement during the OPEC+ summit in Vienna which was seeking up to 1.5 million b/d in further oil production cuts, on Saturday Saudi Arabia kick started what Bloomberg called an all-out oil war, slashing official pricing for its crude and making the deepest cuts in at least 20 years on its main grades, in an effort to push as many barrels into the market as possible.

      In the first major marketing decision since the meeting, the Saudi state producer Aramco, which successfully IPOed just before the price of oil cratered…

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      … launched unprecedented discounts and cut its April pricing for crude sales to Asia by $4-$6 a barrel and to the U.S. by a whopping $7 a barrel in attempts to steal market share from 3rd party sources, according to a copy of the announcement seen by Bloomberg. In the most significant move, Aramco widened the discount for its flagship Arab Light crude to refiners in north-west Europe by a hefty $8 a barrel, offering it at $10.25 a barrel under the Brent benchmark. In contrast, Urals, the Russian flagship crude blend, trades at a discount of about $2 a barrel under Brent. Traders said the Saudi move was a direct attack at the ability of Russian companies to sell crude in Europe.

      Confirming the obvious, Iman Nasseri, managing director for the Middle East at oil consultant FGE said “Saudi Arabia is now really going into a full price war.”

      The draconian cuts in monthly pricing by state prouder Saudi Aramco are the first and clearest indication of how the Saudis will respond to the break up of the alliance between OPEC and Russia, which as we noted earlier, dumped MbS on Friday in a stunning reversal within OPEC+. Talks in Vienna ended in dramatic failure on Friday as Saudi Arabia’s gamble to get Russia to agree to a prolonged and deeper cut failed to pay off.

      And the second indication that the OPEC oil cartel is now effectively dead, came a few hours later when Bloomberg again reported that in addition to huge price cuts, Saudi Arabia was set to flood the market with a glut of oil to steal market share and capitalize on its just announced massive price cuts as the kingdom plans to increase oil output next month, going well above 10 million barrels a day.

      In addition to slashing prices,  Saudi Arabia has privately told some market participants it could raise production much higher if needed, even going to a record of 12 million barrels a day, according to Bloomberg sources.

      But before hitting a stunning 12mmb/d, Saudi production will first rise above 10 million barrels a day in April, from about 9.7 millions a day this month: “That’s the oil market equivalent of a declaration of war,” an unnamed commodities hedge fund manager said.

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      Meanwhile, as Bloomberg correctly notes, “with demand being ravaged by the coronavirus outbreak, opening the taps like that would throw oil market into chaos.”

      According to preliminary estimates, with Brent trading at $45, a flood of Saudi supply as demand is in freefall, could send oil into the $20s if not teens, in a shock move lower as speculators puke on long positions in what Goldman calls periodically a “negative convexity” event.

      Oil traders are looking to historical charts for an indication of how low prices could go. One potential target is $27.10 a barrel, reached in 2016 during the last price war. But some believe the market could go even lower.

      What is the logic behind the Saudi decision?

      According to one take, the shock-and-awe Saudi strategy could be an attempt to impose maximum pain in the quickest possible way to both Russia and other producers, most notably shale, in an effort to bring them back to the negotiating table, and then quickly reverse the production surge and start cutting output if a deal is achieved.

      While that’s certainly possible, it has already been tried once – back in 2014/2015 – and the result was humiliation for Riyadh as not only shale came out stronger, but Russia had no problems absorbing the lower prices. Instead, the most likely outcome is that Russia will be able to withstand a shock price far longer than Saudi Arabia, which has budgeted for a Brent price of $58/b for 2020 (which would lead to a 6.4% budget deficit). A realized price which is roughly half that – should the Saudi strategy work out as planned – would lead to social unrest and government turmoil in Saudi Arabia, and may explain why earlier today Saudi crown prince MbS launched another crackdown on dozens of royals and army officers following the arrest of powerful princes, who may compete for the throne once the public mood in Saudi Arabia turns nasty in the coming weeks.

      Incidentally, those wondering what is the worst case scenario for oil prices, consider that Brent traded at an all time low of $9.55 a barrel in December 1998, during one of the rare price wars that Saudi Arabia has launched over the last 40 years… similar to just now.

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      Could the price drop even lower now? Yes: back then there was no coronavirus pandemic destroying global oil demand.

      One final point: with 10Y Breakevens driven almost entirely by the price of oil…

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      … once Brent craters on Monday to the mid-$30s or lower, the accompanying implosion in 10Y yields could make the record plunge in yields seen on Friday a dress rehearsal for what could be the biggest VaR shock of all time. And since QE will only send yields even lower, perhaps it’s time for the Fed to add oil futures to stocks among the expanded securities it plans on purchasing as part of QE-5 to avert the next deflationary crisis which may have just started.


      Tyler Durden

      Sat, 03/07/2020 – 19:45

    • Bill Clinton Boffed Monica To 'Manage Anxieties' – So What Was Hillary Doing?
      Bill Clinton Boffed Monica To ‘Manage Anxieties’ – So What Was Hillary Doing?

      According to Bill Clinton, his affair with 22-year-old White House intern Monica Lewinsky helped him deal with the stress of being president, according to AFP.

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      Clinton made the admission in a four-part Hulu documentary released Friday about the scandal that resulted in his impeachment.

      In the four-part Hulu series, Clinton describes his sexual relationship in the 1990s with the then 22-year-old White House intern as something he did “to manage my anxieties for years.”

      He said it had been motivated by life’s “pressure and disappointments and terrors, fears of whatever” and said he felt “terrible” that the affair had defined Lewinsky’s life. –AFP  (via Yahoo)

      “We all bring our baggage to life and sometimes we do things we shouldn’t do,” Clinton said, adding “It was awful what I did.”

      Which begs the question; why wasn’t Hillary – who thought she was cut out to lead America, unable to ‘manage’ her own husband’s anxieties?

      Were Bill’s needs the rust-belt of their marriage – totally ignored by power-hungry Hillary? Or the Benghazi of their dead bedroom – totally abandoned when she was needed most? Or was it always just an ‘arrangement’ between two sociopaths bent on world domination, and Bill just got caught?

      Either way, that’s enough cursed images flashing through one’s brain for now.

      Hillary, meanwhile, said she felt “devastated and so personally hurt” when Bill told her about the affair.

      They both talk about how Hillary told him to inform their daughter Chelsea before the news became public.

      “So, I did that, which was awful,” said the ex-president. “What I did was wrong. I just hated to hurt her,” he added.

      Bill Clinton said nobody in his position would have thought about the risks they were taking by having the affair.

      “It is you feel like you are staggering around, you have been in a 15-round prize fight that was extended to 30 rounds and here is something that will take your mind off of it for a while. That is what happens,” he explained. –AFP 

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      Bill also reflected on how the affair affected Lewinsky, who kept a dress containing his semen, saying he thinks her life has been “unfairly” defined by the tryst.

      “Over the years I have watched her trying to get a normal life back again. But you got to decide how to define normal,” he said.


      Tyler Durden

      Sat, 03/07/2020 – 19:40

    • Fed Chair Powell Confirms Fed's Role As The Great Enabler
      Fed Chair Powell Confirms Fed’s Role As The Great Enabler

      Authored by Bruce Wilds via Advancing Time blog,

      As questions swirl about the Fed’s independence Fed Chair Powell has been busy trying to explain his reason for the  “emergency” 50bps rate cut.

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      At Best, The Fed Is Simply A Flawed Institution

      Regardless of what he says Fed Chair Powell has confirmed the Fed plans to continue its role as the great enabler. This means central banks across the globe can now lower their rates or do additional stimulus without damaging the delicate balance in the relationship in the value of one major currency to another. This is a delicate balance they have long held in check to stabilize the financial system and add credence to the myth no major currency can fail.

      Powell said,  “My colleagues and I took this action to help the U.S. economy keep strong in the face of new risks to the economic outlook.”

      Whether Powell succumbed to pressure from the highly critical words of the President for not acting immediately or fear the coronavirus would take a toll on the economy is not clear. As Powell tried to explain his actions, many of us who pay attention to such things cried “Bullshit.” Not only is a rate cut uncalled for at this time, but because it will also do little to strengthen the economy. What it will do is continue to prop up asset prices and encourage risk-taking and malinvestment. This is a big deal and may even result in more negative interest rates across the world which could create greater problems.

      In the Austrian business cycle theory, malinvestments are badly allocated business investments, due to the artificially low cost of credit and an unsustainable increase in the money supply. A strong case can be made that we already suffer from far to much leverage in our markets and this rate cut only encourages savers suffering from low-interest rates to take on more risk in search of higher yields. It has been pointed out on many occasions that low-interest rates do not extend down to low-income individuals with poor credit and many people fall into this category. Instead, over time these rates fuel inequality and punish the poor. Unfortunately, the concept that a rising tide floats all boats or trickle-down economics tends to heavily favor the rich.

      We see this in housing where few of the new apartment construction funds are generated locally and much of the building is no-longer based on real need but centered around the whims of huge real estate companies. This is part of the reason roughly 80% of new apartment construction is now for the high-end luxury market. Again the government and Wall Street money is driving this train. While retailers close and large buildings go empty across the land new buildings are being put up on speculation and bogus public-private partnerships are plowing vast sums of money into projects geared to compete with those that already exist. the fact is all across America the Fed is putting the small guy out of business.

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      Feds Low Rates Have Enabled This

      Of course, the elephant in the room is the stock market and not the economy. When people like Trump point to the market as proof that all is well they put stocks in front of the real indicator of our economic strength which is the middle and lower class. The disconnect between the working people and the financial community is apparent in the difficulty people with small businesses have getting loans or financing a project while big business is fed billions of dollars by the banks and Wall Street. If anyone is losing confidence in the system it is these people.

      As you witness wild market swings and gyrations now taking place, it is important to realize this is part of the process necessary to break the well-ingrained habit of “buy the dip.” This method of trading has worked since October 19th, 1987 when the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dropped 22.6 percent in a single trading session. That is the day the actions by Fed Chairman Greenspan galvanized the mantras “buy the dip” and “don’t fight the Fed.” Greenspan did this by affirming the Federal reserve would be there “to serve as a source of liquidity to support the economic and financial system.”

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      The trading patterns flowing from buying the dip have become ingrained and drive the algorithms embedded deep inside the computers that control much of the stock market’s direction. As noted at the beginning of this article, to the chagrin of those with a negative view of the Fed, Powell has confirmed the Fed plans to continue as the great enabler allowing central banks across the globe to lower their rates or do additional stimulus without weakening their currency compared to the dollar. I continue to contend this explains the recent weakness in the dollar and the strength in the yen as wealth continues to flow out of China.

      To be perfectly blunt, the rapid expansion of debt and credit during the last decade could have occurred without the Fed being complicit. When things move too far in one direction adjustments do occur. Do not be surprised if the dollar again jumps higher as the reality sets in that many countries will do far worse than America in the coming months. For now, we watch and wait while the market again tries to discover its true value both here in America and across the world.


      Tyler Durden

      Sat, 03/07/2020 – 18:40

    • "We Are In An Adverse Feedback Loop": How To Track The Coronavirus Hit To US Consumer Spending
      “We Are In An Adverse Feedback Loop”: How To Track The Coronavirus Hit To US Consumer Spending

      In our ongoing attempts to glean some objective insight into what is actually happening “on the ground” in the notoriously opaque China, whose economy has been hammered by the Coronavirus epidemic, in February we first showed several “alternative” economic indicators such as real-time measurements of air pollution (a proxy for industrial output), daily coal consumption (a proxy for electricity usage and manufacturing) and traffic congestion levels (a proxy for commerce and mobility), before concluding correctly that China’s economy appears to have ground to a halt – the subsequent record drop in China’s manufacturing and service PMI only confirmed this.

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      These observations were subsequently reaffirmed when we showed that steel demand, property sales, and passenger traffic had all failed to rebound from the “dead zone” hit during China’s Lunar New Year hibernation.

      And while the latest high-frequency Chinese data compiled by Goldman…

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      … and Capital Economics suggested there was a modest economic improvement in recent weeks…

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      … the latest reports that China is now openly manipulating even high-frequency data such as electricity usage to give the impression that life in China is back to normal (it isn’t), have made virtually all data out of China meaningless, as explained in:

      Yet even as China moved to openly fabricate all of its economic data, attention shifted away from China’s economy and to that of the US, which is now getting directly hammered as the coronavirus is now actively and aggressively spreading within US borders. As such, while most strategist have factored in a certain slowdown from the coronavirus in the US with the assumption that there will be a V or at least U-shaped recovery, many are starting to look increasingly at high frequency data in the US… just in case the local “recovery” is L-shaped, and leading to a recession, if not a depression.

      As a result, banks such as Goldman have now created some version of a “Coronavirus Consumer Activity Tracker”, which in Goldman’s case saggregates data such as movie ticket sales, hotel occupancy rates, and sporting event attendance, to determine if the US consumer – whose spending accounts for 70% of US GDP – is going into self-imposed spending quarantine. Separately, Goldman’s Coronavirus Consumer Price Tracker aggregates data on hotel prices, airfares, and theater ticket prices, which looks at any deflationary pricing impact from the coronavirus to reveal a decline in demand if companies are slashing prices to fill empty rooms or seats.

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      The good news? As Goldman’s Jan Hatzius writes, “our Coronavirus Consumer Activity and Price Trackers show no sign yet that virus fears have led to consumption cutbacks. Going forward, we will provide regular updates of these new indices to track the impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the most vulnerable categories of spending.”

      The next chart illustrates some of the Goldman data. The left chart presents year-over-year changes in hotel occupancy rates and prices. The right chart presents the average attendance percentage and ticket price for Broadway shows.

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      The bank then aggregates the data into two indices that summarize overall signals for consumer activity and prices, the GS Coronavirus Consumer Activity Tracker and GS Coronavirus Consumer Price Tracker.

      The next chart presents Goldman’s Coronavirus Consumer Activity Tracker. Consumer activity in virus-exposed categories held steady during the last week of February, as declines in Broadway attendance, movie ticket sales, and available airline seat miles were offset by increases in hotel occupancy rates, retail sales, and college basketball attendance. “This suggests that, at least for now, consumers aren’t avoiding mass gatherings in response to the coronavirus news”, according to Goldman, although as we will show later, not all data agrees.

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      The next chart presents Goldman’s Coronavirus Consumer Price Tracker, which provides another measure of consumer demand. This index also remained roughly in line with its recent average last week, as small declines in airfares and Broadway ticket prices were offset by an increase in hotel rates.

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      The bottom line from GOldman: “While activity in some of these categories declined last week, our Coronavirus Consumer Activity and Price Trackers show no sign that virus fears led to consumer cutbacks through the end of February.”

      * * *

      Taking a step back, why do we care about US consumer spending in the context of the coronavirus? Recall that there are two distinct channels by which COVID-19 filters into the US:

      1. direct link through global supply chain disruptions; and
      2. indirect through a confidence shock.

      The former is already in play and is very likely to create challenges for multinational companies in the US into the summer. The latter is being threatened given the violent sell-off in markets and warning from the CDC about the inevitability of the disease showing up on our shores.

      It will take time for the “hard” economic data to show the impact but we are already seeing evidence in early economic indicators including:

      • corporate commentary about broken supply chains,
      • stalling in port activities,
      • deterioration in financial conditions,
      • freezing up in corporate debt issuance and behavioral shifts among consumers which we observe in our proprietary consumer data.

      Courtesy of Bank of America, we look at each of these in further detail below:

      The global supply chain was already under pressure as a result of the US-China trade war and the coronavirus adds additional strains. The tariffs created frictions by increasing the cost of production but the virus threatens to be a large supply shock by impairing the ability to produce. For example, take a US retailer who is importing textiles from China which will then be sent to a factory in Southeast Asia and then perhaps back to China to make the end product. If the retailer cannot receive the raw materials – which in this example is textiles – it shuts down the entire process. And this example is way too simple. The reality is that these are complex cross-national supply chains with large secondary impacts, and, as Goldman recently warned, “the supply chain effect is likely nonlinear with the length of the outbreak, as production is likely to remain largely unaffected until inventories run out, after which production may fall sharply.”

      Companies are already vocal about these challenges. According to Bank of America economists, over 180 companies have mentioned the virus on earnings calls, with those in the consumer discretionary sector being the most negative. Similarly, a FactSet search of 364 earnings calls from January 1 through February 13 found that 38% included the term “coronavirus” at least once with the industrial, IT and healthcare sectors accounting for the majority. And this is as of February 13th – consider how much worse it likely has become since then. We can get a sense from Google Trends: searches for “coronavirus” in the US fell in the early parts of February but have recently been climbing again as the virus spreads to other countries.

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      We can also look at activity at US ports. According to press reports, cargo traffic through Port of Los Angeles is down about 25% in February as China accounts for about half of LA port’s traffic. Port traffic had already been trending lower in ports across the west coast for much of last year owing in part to the trade war that led to a decline in trade between the US and China. As a result, BofA sees inventory shortages accelerating over the next few weeks given the 12 to 27 day sailing time between Asia and the US.

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      From a GDP perspective, the drag from broken supply chains will be evident in weaker business investment, mostly in inventory but also capex. Inventory levels ended last year low, which means the starting point is troublesome. We expect inventories to contract for the first 3 quarters of 2020- it is atypical to see such inventory reduction outside of recessions. The silver lining is that once we get to the other side and the recovery begins, there will be a need for restocking which will support growth.

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      Of course, if such relationships were linear this would more or less cover all the issue. However, since supply chains are non-linear and reflexive, they form adverse feedback, and as BofA warns “adverse feedback loops are dangerous.”

      Not only that, but as the bank’s economists warn, “we are starting to see evidence of an adverse feedback loop between markets and consumers; this frightens us.” Let’s review the signals:

      Market indications:

      • As of Friday, the S&P 500 sold off almost 14.0% from the recent high.
      • The 3mo-10yr yield curve is inverted by ~18bp, the most since October 2019 when trade war concerns were dominating the news flow
      • BofA’s global financial stress indicator triggered risk-off for the first time since August 5 – September 12 2019. While the indicator has been a good signal to buy the dip since 2013, the bank’s equity derivatives research team warns that this time may be different given the nature of this shock.
      • Freeze in the global credit machine. In the US, high yield bond issuance has slowed and there was no new US IG corporate issuance this week.

      Consumer signs:

      In the bank’s proprietary consumer survey, BofA has seen some pickup in those noting they are “very concerned” though it remains modest. And while broad consumer sentiment has been resilient, as Goldman’s data confirmed, this will change drastically in the coming weeks.

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      But most notably, and countering Goldman’s far more benign data, based on BofA’s internal credit and debit card data, behavior has started to shift. The first obvious change was in spending on Asian airlines, which has plunged. Subsequent data has revealed that spending on European airlines, cruise lines, and lodging has all crashed compared to 2019. What has remained resilient so far, is spending on health and personal care stores, as well as spending at grocery stores. If and when there is a decisive pullback across all spending categories, “we suggest you panic.”

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      The conclusion: so far US consumers haven’t showed broad-based fear. But as BofA reminds us, consumers are very sensitive to big market moves. Case in point: consumer confidence tumbled following the sell-off in December 2018. Similarly confidence weakened following the big market move in August 2019. In both cases spending plunged immediately thereafter. This is more than simply a negative “wealth effect”. Consumers see the stock market as a gauge of the health of the economy and the state of their personal finances; it is also an indicator of faith in the Fed which has single-handedly kept the stock market ramping for the past 11 years, avoiding both a bear market and a recession. Which is why when the stock market sells off violently, it sends an ominous message.

      We leave the last words to Bank of America: “We believe that we are in the very early stages of the adverse feedback loop. In our baseline forecast, we are assuming that it does not spiral. However, it remains a significant risk and we believe it is prudent to monitor it very closely.”


      Tyler Durden

      Sat, 03/07/2020 – 18:10

    • US Blocks UN Statement Backing Russia-Brokered Ceasefire In Syria
      US Blocks UN Statement Backing Russia-Brokered Ceasefire In Syria

      Authored by Jason Ditz via AntiWar.com,

      The ceasefire in Syria’s Idlib Province took effect on Friday, and has been holding so far. With every other nation on board, the US blocked a joint UN statement backing the ceasefire, saying it was “premature” to do so.

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      The ceasefire came into effect at midnight on Friday, via the AP.

      The ceasefire was brokered by Turkey and Russia, and that’s almost certainly the problem from the US perspective. The US broadly refuses to back any Syria agreements Russia is involved in.

      “It’s premature,” the United States said, rejecting the joint statement which Russia’s ambassador to the UN, Vassily Nebenzia, had asked the other 14 member states to adopt, according to diplomats.

      “Various countries took note and welcome the agreement,” said Nebenzia. “But due to a position from one delegation, it was not possible.” —AFP

      US officials had also been loudly backing Turkey’s military offensive in Idlib, and probably aren’t happy that Turkey has made a deal not to go to war.

      US officials weren’t super on board with directly participating in a Turkey-instigated war, but were only too happy to give lip-service to it. But AFP reports:

      According to diplomats, Moscow signaled that it could oppose endorsement of the US-Taliban peace deal in the Security Council following the US opposition to the Russia-Turkey ceasefire.

      Having the UN back a ceasefire, even if it is one not expected to necessarily survive, is usually the norm, though the US may find, in seeking backing for its Afghan deal, they may face similar resistance.


      Tyler Durden

      Sat, 03/07/2020 – 17:50

    • Police Quarantine California Neighborhood After Coronavirus Death
      Police Quarantine California Neighborhood After Coronavirus Death

      Police in the Sacramento suburb of Rocklin, California ordered residents on one residential street to stay inside their homes as officers in protective gear patrolled the area as a sheriff’s helicopter circled overhead, according to WIBW.

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      The reason? A man who became California’s first coronavirus victim lived on the block.

      Residents were kept in the dark until after they were allowed to leave their homes, according to the report.

      The Placer County Health Department issued a brief statement shortly after the police presence, stating: “Law enforcement partners are currently responding to enforce a health officer’s order. We cannot share any additional information to protect patient confidentiality.”

      The orders were given under sections of California Health and Safety Code that allows Placer Health to “enforce regulations requiring strict isolation, or quarantine if the action is necessary for the protection of the public health.” –WIBW

      The quarantine order came one day after Placer County Public Health announced the death of the 71-year-old resident.

      “I understand the sensitivity of the situation, but of course more information is always better,” said Justin Rodgers of Rocklin.

      The report notes that nobody from the Placer County Health Department was seen entering any homes, while the county is not commenting on whether law enforcement will be involved in the days ahead.


      Tyler Durden

      Sat, 03/07/2020 – 17:20

    • AOC Encourages Illegals To Participate In 2020 Census
      AOC Encourages Illegals To Participate In 2020 Census

      Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) says that “every single person, no matter your documentation status” should participate in the 2020 census, according to the Washington Examiner.

      “We’re all going to get mailed a prompt to fill out the census in the next two weeks or so,” she said during a Thursday interview on Late Night With Seth Meyers. “Every single person, no matter your documentation status, no matter your housing status, income, etc., is to be counted.”

      In 2019, Ocasio-Cortez condemned the idea of a citizenship question on the census, saying, “unspeakable horrors have been executed in the United States in the name of citizenship.”

      The census, which will begin on March 12, 2020, will be used to determine how government funds should be used to build a wide range of infrastructures such as schools, hospitals, homes, and supermarkets. A major debate around the census is related to how the numbers are used to alter congressional representation. Ten states are expected to either lose or gain congressional districts based on the results of the 2020 census. –Washington Examiner

      In 2018, President Trump took heat after his administration announced plans for a controversial citizenship question on the census, which hasn’t been included since 1950 according to the report. Federal Judge Jesse Furman, an Obama appointee, struck down the plan – writing that a citizenship test would be both “arbitrary and capricious.”

      Last year, Attorney General William Barr and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross were held in contempt by the House after they refused to respond to congressional subpoenas regarding the citizenship question.

      The Trump administration gave up on adding the citizenship question to the census in June, 2019 after the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 against the attempt.


      Tyler Durden

      Sat, 03/07/2020 – 16:50

    • MbS Widens Purge: Dozens Of Royals And Army Officers Swept Up After Powerful Princes Arrested
      MbS Widens Purge: Dozens Of Royals And Army Officers Swept Up After Powerful Princes Arrested

      Yesterday we predicted a return to MbS’ infamous Ritz-Carlton Riyadh shakedown of 2017 after a dramatic Friday morning raid on the homes of King Salman’s brother, Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz al Saud, and Prince Mohammed bin Nayef bin Abdulaziz al Saud.

      All eyes are on the spread of the deadly coronavirus, so what better time to initiate a broader crackdown (or at least dramatically restart the 2017-2018 purge), than when world leaders are distracted by making sure their societies survive a potential apocalyptic pandemic? 

      The pair, which happen to be the kingdom’s top most powerful royals aside from MbS, having both in the past been in charge of Saudi armed forces and intelligence in the post of Interior Minister, were arrested for allegedly plotting a coup to unseat the king and crown prince. Of course any level of evidence was not forthcoming. Treason could bring the death penalty.

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      Image via Eye On Riyadh 

      It appears the resumption of MbS’ purge of any power rivals or centers of influence is back on after a year-long lull following the Oct. 2018 murder and dismemberment of journalist Jamal Khashoggi is officially back on.

      The WSJ reports: “Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has embarked on a broad security crackdown by rounding up royal rivals, government officials and military officers in an effort to quash potential challenges to his power, Saudi royals and advisers familiar with the matter said Saturday.”

      This includes “dozens of Interior Ministry officials, senior army officers and others suspected of supporting a coup attempt…”.

      With Gov. Cuomo declaring New York in a ‘state of emergency’ Saturday after a new spike in Covid-19 cases, the crackdown in the Saudi kingdom has barely made a dent in terms of competing with the dozens of coronavirus headlines this weekend.

      And yet hundreds of princes and high Saudi officials are now experiencing chills of a very different sort: 

      The security sweep has sent a chill across the leadership of Saudi Arabia, where Prince Mohammed has spent three years consolidating power in anticipation of his expected ascension to the throne when 84-year-old King Salman dies, or if he decides to abdicate.

      MbS suddenly has an overwhelming outpouring of public “support” by nervous allies within the royal family, the WSJ reports further.

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      Remember this? 

      One Saudi government official told the Journal it’s still a mystery as to why black-clad and masked commandos showed up to haul bin Nayef and Prince Ahmed away early Friday morning.

      “The king was seen just a day earlier, so he is OK and none of us are aware of any plans of abdication,” the anonymous Saudi government adviser said. “The trigger for the arrests is still a mystery.”


      Tyler Durden

      Sat, 03/07/2020 – 16:40

    • "It's An Awful Situation": Washington Moves To Take Over Nursing Home At Epicenter Of Outbreak
      “It’s An Awful Situation”: Washington Moves To Take Over Nursing Home At Epicenter Of Outbreak

      Washington state officials are reportedly considering taking over a nursing home in Kirkland where at least 10 residents have died, possibly the first example in American history of a state agency nationalizing a nursing home.

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      The Life Care Center of Kirkland has become the center of a controversy as family members have complained to the press that they have been kept out of the loop when it comes to the care – and even at times, the location – of their loved ones who have either been infected, or possibly exposed and are in the process of being tested. At one point, a woman whose mother died of the facility of still-unknown causes (so possibly not virus-related) was told that her mother was alive and well after she had passed, WSJ reports.

      Pat Herrick, whose mother Elaine Herrick lived at the facility for seven years, said staff she has spoken with were juggling many tasks. After her mother died early Thursday morning, Ms. Herrick said she received a call later that day from a clinical representative referring to her mother as still alive. When Ms. Herrick corrected her “she was shocked,” Ms. Herrick said.

      She said Mr. Hunter called her that afternoon to apologize for the incident and the company put protocols in place to prevent any similar incidents. Ms. Herrick doesn’t know if her mother was infected with the new coronavirus and wants to have her body tested.

      It’s just the latest example, as the coronavirus spreads across the world, of how specialized health-care institutions like nursing homes or other assisted-living facilities are extremely unprepared for the outbreak.

      On Friday, the CDC said it was deploying a team of doctors and nurses to begin helping out the staff at the facility, some of whom have tested positive for the virus. Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, who declared a state of emergency a few days ago,

      The facility has been trying to get more protective gear, according to the head of a local health-care trade group. Washington Gov. Jay Inslee said Friday the state was seeking more gear from federal emergency stockpiles.

      According to WSJ, dozens of residents, staff and visitors had gathered inside the nursing home just a week ago for their Mardi Gras party.

      “We have questions and we demand answers. If anyone’s questions should be answered, it’s ours,” said Kevin Connolly, whose father-in-law is a resident at the nursing home just east of Seattle. “There’s a line and it starts behind us.”

      Families and government officials have blamed the Tennessee-based Life Care Centers of America, the owner of the nursing home in Washington, for failing to provide sufficient critical information about the status of patients to families. The company didn’t respond to WSJ‘s requests for comment.

      King County Executive Dow Constantine, the executive of the county with the largest number of cases in Washington State (many of which have been tied to the nursing home), has publicly expressed frustration with the company.

      “We’ve had some challenges with Life Care and I’m starting to lose my patience,” King County Executive Dow Constantine said at a news conference Friday.

      More than 100 residents were in the facility when the outbreak was first confirmed a week ago. By Friday, authorities said 69 residents were still inside and 15 residents had been transferred to local hospitals in the prior 24 hours. Life Care said in a statement Wednesday it didn’t know how the virus got into the 190-bed facility, and that it hadn’t been provided test kits.

      The company added that it has so far relied on information from federal and state officials on testing and the number of cases. To be fair, the CDC hasn’t exactly been super forthcoming.

      Springing into action, a scientist from nearby UW Medicine visited the nursing home on behalf of state officials and evaluated patients. Though in his report he said they appeared to be well-cared for, he noted the company had performed poorly when it came to communication.

      An emergency physician for UW Medicine, which includes a health system and the University of Washington School of Medicine, who visited the nursing home Thursday said the facility needed more health-care workers, and he recommended the state provide help.

      Stephen Morris, an assistant professor of public health and emergency medicine, said he evaluated 28 residents identified by public-health and nursing-home workers for possible transfer to local hospitals. He wasn’t able to see everyone, and the facility isn’t designed to effectively quarantine residents, he said. “It’s impossible in that environment.”

      Not all residents could speak, but one expressed frustration she couldn’t talk with family, Dr. Morris said. “It’s an awful situation,” he said of residents’ isolation from their families.

      Dr. Morris gave the county a report after leaving the home. The report described the facility as clean and well functioning, and patients Dr. Morris evaluated appeared to be well cared for, Ms. Hayes said Friday. The comments reflected his observations during a four-hour visit, Dr. Morris said.

      Regarding outreach, the company on Wednesday said each remaining resident had been assigned a clinical representative who will be in contact with family members daily.

      “Our clinical team is making personal, one-on-one telephone calls with family members to share information about loved ones and respond to questions,” company President Beecher Hunter said in a Thursday statement.

      Earlier this week, the company said it had assigned each patient an outreach liaison who would help with keeping families in the loop.

      Regarding outreach, the company on Wednesday said each remaining resident had been assigned a clinical representative who will be in contact with family members daily.

      “Our clinical team is making personal, one-on-one telephone calls with family members to share information about loved ones and respond to questions,” company President Beecher Hunter said in a Thursday statement.

      We suspect that by the time this outbreak is over, all of the nursing home companies in the US – notorious for being an industry that struggles with different levels of institutionalized shadiness, epitomized by the television show ‘Better Call Saul’- might struggle for years to rebuild public confidence.


      Tyler Durden

      Sat, 03/07/2020 – 16:20

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