Feb 09

Today’s News 9th February 2021

  • The (New Normal) War On Domestic Terror
    The (New Normal) War On Domestic Terror

    Authored (mostly satirically) by CJ Hopkins via The Consent Factory,

    If you enjoyed the Global War on Terror, you’re going to love the new War on Domestic Terror! It’s just like the original Global War on Terror, except that this time the “Terrorists” are all “Domestic Violent Extremists” (“DVEs”), “Homegrown Violent Extremists” (“HVEs”), “Violent Conspiracy-Theorist Extremists” (“VCTEs”), “Violent Reality Denialist Extremists” (VRDEs”), “Insurrectionary Micro-Aggressionist Extremists” (“IMAEs”), “People Who Make Liberals Feel Uncomfortable” (“PWMLFUs”), and anyone else the Department of Homeland Security wants to label an “extremist” and slap a ridiculous acronym on.

    According to a “National Terrorism Advisory System Bulletin” issued by the DHS on January 27, these DCEs, HVEs, VCTEs, VRDEs, IMAEs, and PWMLFUs are “ideologically-motivated violent extremists with objections to the exercise of governmental authority” and other “perceived grievances fueled by false narratives.” They are believed to be “motivated by a range of issues, including anger over Covid-19 restrictions, the 2020 election results, police use of force,” and other dangerous “false narratives” (e.g., the existence of the “deep state,” “herd immunity,” “biological sex,” “God,” and so on).

    “Inspired by foreign terrorist groups” and “emboldened by the breach of the US Capitol Building,” this diabolical network of “domestic terrorists” is “plotting attacks against government facilities,” “threatening violence against critical infrastructure” and actively “citing misinformation and conspiracy theories about Covid-19.” For all we know, they might be huddled in the “Wolf’s Lair” at Mar-a-Lago right now, plotting a devastating terrorist attack with those WMDs we never found in Iraq, or generating population-adjusted death-rate charts going back 20 years, or posting pictures of “extremist frogs” on the Internet.

    The Department of Homeland Security is “concerned,” as are its counterparts throughout the global capitalist empire. The (New Normal) War on Domestic Terror isn’t just a war on American “domestic terror.” The “domestic terror” threat is international. France has just passed a “Global Security Law” banning citizens from filming the police beating the living snot out of people (among other “anti-terrorist” provisions). In Germany, the government is preparing to install an anti-terror moat around the Reichstag. In the Netherlands, the police are cracking down on the VCTEs, VRDEs, and other “angry citizens who hate the system,” who have been protesting over nightly curfews. Suddenly, everywhere you look (or at least if you are looking in the corporate media), “global extremism networks are growing.” It’s time for Globocap to take the gloves off again, root the “terrorists” out of their hidey holes, and roll out a new official narrative.

    Actually, there’s not much new about it. When you strip away all the silly new acronyms, the (New Normal) War on Domestic Terror is basically just a combination of the “War on Terror” narrative and the “New Normal” narrative, i.e., a militarization of the so-called “New Normal” and a pathologization of the “War on Terror.” Why would GloboCap want to do that, you ask?

    I think you know, but I’ll go ahead and tell you.

    See, the problem with the original “Global War on Terror” was that it wasn’t actually all that global. It was basically just a war on Islamic “terrorism” (i.e., resistance to global capitalism and its post-ideological ideology), which was fine as long as GloboCap was just destabilizing and restructuring the Greater Middle East. It was put on hold in 2016, so that GloboCap could focus on defeating “populism” (i.e., resistance to global capitalism and its post-ideological ideology), make an example of Donald Trump, and demonize everyone who voted for him (or just refused to take part in their free and fair elections), which they have just finished doing, in spectacular fashion. So, now it’s back to “War on Terror” business, except with a whole new cast of “terrorists,” or, technically, an expanded cast of “terrorists.” (I rattled off a list in my previous column.)

    In short, GloboCap has simply expanded, recontextualized, and pathologized the “War on Terror” (i.e., the war on resistance to global capitalism and its post-ideological ideology). This was always inevitable, of course. A globally-hegemonic system (e.g., global capitalism) has no external enemies, as there is no territory “outside” the system. Its only enemies are within the system, and thus, by definition, are insurgents, also known as “terrorists” and “extremists.” These terms are utterly meaningless, obviously. They are purely strategic, deployed against anyone who deviates from GloboCap’s official ideology … which, in case you were wondering, is called “normality” (or, in our case, currently, “New Normality”).

    In earlier times, these “terrorists” and “extremists” were known as “heretics,” “apostates,” and “blasphemers.” Today, they are also known as “deniers,” e.g., “science deniers,” “Covid deniers,” and recently, more disturbingly, “reality deniers.” This is an essential part of the pathologization of the “War on Terror” narrative. The new breed of “terrorists” do not just hate us for our freedom … they hate us because they hate “reality.” They are no longer our political or ideological opponents … they are suffering from a psychiatric disorder. They no longer need to be argued with or listened to … they need to be “treated,” “reeducated,” and “deprogrammed,” until they accept “Reality.” If you think I’m exaggerating the totalitarian nature of the “New Normal/War on Terror” narrative, read this op-ed in The New York Times exploring the concept of a “Reality Czar” to deal with our “Reality Crisis.”

    And this is just the beginning, of course. The consensus (at least in GloboCap circles) is, the (New Normal) War on Domestic Terror will probably continue for the next 10 to 20 years, which should provide the global capitalist ruling classes with more than enough time to carry out the “Great Reset,” destroy what’s left of human society, and condition the public to get used to living like cringing, neo-feudal peasants who have to ask permission to leave their houses. We’re still in the initial “shock and awe” phase (which they will have to scale back a bit eventually), but just look at how much they’ve already accomplished.

    The economic damage is literally incalculable … millions have been plunged into desperate poverty, countless independent businesses crushed, whole industries crippled, developing countries rendered economically dependent (i.e., compliant) for the foreseeable future, as billionaires amassed over $1 trillion in wealth and supranational corporate behemoths consolidated their dominance across the planet.

    And that’s just the economic damage. The attack on society has been even more dramatic. GloboCap, in the space of a year, has transformed the majority of the global masses into an enormous, paranoid totalitarian cult that is no longer capable of even rudimentary reasoning. (I’m not going to go on about it here … at this point, you either recognize it or you’re in it.) They’re actually lining up in parking lots, the double-masked members of this Covidian cult, to be injected with an experimental “vaccine” that they believe will save the human species from a virus that causes mild to moderate symptoms in roughly 95% of those “infected,” and that over 99% of the “infected” survive.

    So, it is no big surprise that these same mindless cultists are gung-ho for the (New Normal) War on Domestic Terror, and the upcoming globally-televised show trial of Donald Trump for “inciting insurrection,” and the ongoing corporate censorship of the Internet, and can’t wait to be issued their “Freedom Passports,” which will allow them to take part in “New Normal” life — double-masked and socially-distanced, naturally — while having their every movement and transaction, and every word they write on Facebook, or in an email, or say to someone on their smartphones, or in the vicinity of their 5G toasters, recorded by GloboCap’s Intelligence Services and their corporate partners, subsidiaries, and assigns. These people have nothing at all to worry about, as they would never dream of disobeying orders, and could not produce an original thought, much less one displeasing to GloboCap, if you held a fake apocalyptic plague to their heads.

    As for the rest of us “extremists,” “domestic terrorists,” “heretics,” and “reality deniers,” (i.e., anyone criticizing global capitalism, or challenging its official narratives, and its increasingly totalitarian ideology, regardless of our specific DHS acronyms), I wish I had something hopeful to tell you, but, the truth is, things aren’t looking so good. I guess I’ll see you in a quarantine camp, or in the psych ward, or an offshore detention facility … or, I don’t know, maybe I’ll see you in the streets.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/08/2021 – 23:40

  • Watch: F-15EX Flies For First Time As USAF Prepares For Deliveries 
    Watch: F-15EX Flies For First Time As USAF Prepares For Deliveries 

    Boeing reported earlier this week the first test flight of its upgraded version of the F-15 Eagle was “successful,” paving the way for two of these fighter jets to be delivered to the US Air Force later this quarter. 

    The F-15EX took off and landed from St. Louis Lambert International Airport in Missouri on Tuesday, completing a 90-minute test flight before returning to the airport.

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    Matt Giese, Boeing F-15EX’s chief test pilot, said the new fighter jet is packed with “advanced systems and software.” Boeing’s team on the ground monitored the aircraft’s performance during the flight test. 

    “Today’s successful flight proves the jet’s safety and readiness to join our nation’s fighter fleet,” said Prat Kumar, Boeing vice president, and F-15 program manager. “Our workforce is excited to build a modern fighter aircraft for the US Air Force.”

    The updated F-15 “is capable of incorporating the latest advanced battle management systems, sensors, and weapons due to the jet’s digital airframe design and open mission systems architecture,” Kumar said.

    The Department of Defense first requested eight F-15EX fighter jets that could be delivered as soon as this year. The military wants upwards of 144 of these fighter jets in the next five years. 

    Even though the Trump administration has spent tens of billions on F-35 fifth-generation fighters, the Air Force, for some reason, still wants to obtain a 45-year-old fourth-generation fighter. 

    The reason behind the move could be due to the F-35’s internal bomb bays aren’t large enough to carry hypersonic missiles. 

    The Air Force is expected to purchase the F-15EX without reducing the fleet of 1,763 F-35s that it has long planned. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/08/2021 – 23:20

  • The Snowplow Test
    The Snowplow Test

    Authored by Rod Dreher via TheAmericanConservative.com,

    Los Angeles Times columnist Virginia Heffernan, who lives in Brooklyn Heights but who lives somewhere rurally to escape Covid, recently had a dilemma: her Trump-loving neighbors did something nice for her. 

    She doesn’t know what the right thing to do about it is.

    Now, stop right there.

    Normal people don’t have this problem.

    Normal people think, aww, how nice, and start thinking of ways to return the kindness.

    But normal people are not Harvard-educated New York-based liberal journalists.

    Hence Heffernan’s revealing column. Excerpts:

    Oh, heck no. The Trumpites next door to our pandemic getaway, who seem as devoted to the ex-president as you can get without being Q fans, just plowed our driveway without being asked and did a great job.

    How am I going to resist demands for unity in the face of this act of aggressive niceness?

    Of course, on some level, I realize I owe them thanks — and, man, it really looks like the guy back-dragged the driveway like a pro — but how much thanks?

    These neighbors are staunch partisans of blue lives, and there aren’t a lot of anything other than white lives in neighborhood.

    This is also kind of weird. Back in the city, people don’t sweep other people’s walkways for nothing.

    It takes a New Yorker to be confronted with someone doing something nice for them, and get suspicious about the angle. More:

    On Jan. 6, after the insurrection, Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.) issued an aw-shucks plea for all Americans to love their neighbors. The United States, he said, “isn’t Hatfields and McCoys, this blood feud forever.” And, he added, “You can’t hate someone who shovels your driveway.”

    At the time, I seethed; the Capitol had just been desecrated. But maybe my neighbor heard Sasse and was determined to make a bid for reconciliation.

    So here’s my response to my plowed driveway, for now. Politely, but not profusely, I’ll acknowledge the Sassian move. With a wave and a thanks, a minimal start on building back trust. I’m not ready to knock on the door with a covered dish yet.

    I also can’t give my neighbors absolution; it’s not mine to give.

    Free driveway work, as nice as it is, is just not the same currency as justice and truth. To pretend it is would be to lie, and they probably aren’t looking for absolution anyway.

    :::::facepalm:::::

    Let me tell you something, Virginia: your neighbors probably have no idea who Ben Sasse is, and isn’t looking to reconcile with you, much less receive your absolution. They just wanted to do something nice for you, because you are their neighbor, and that’s what neighbors do for each other. The fact that you assume there must be some politically aware motive behind the action says a lot about you. I grew up in the rural South, and trust me, nobody stopped to ask what one’s politics were before doing something nice for them. This is not how people live outside of Blue State Cosmopolises.

    As for “absolution,” I kind of hope you do try to engage your Trumpist neighbors by descending from on high to tell them that you might be willing to wash their sins away with your pure milk of la-te-da liberal kindness. That would be fun to watch.

    The neighbors might know perfectly well that you hate Trump, but if they are like normal people, they don’t care. You’re their neighbor, and your driveway needed plowing. It didn’t occur to them to think that they needed to know anything else about you. Honestly, this kind of “MAGA-heads In The Mist” take really does call for putting on “Sweet Home Alabama,” blasting it at top volume, and shouting these lines against judgmental liberal hypocrisy:

    Now Watergate does not bother me.

    Does your conscience bother you? Tell the truth.

    No kidding, to people like Virginia Heffernan every check their own consciences? Do they believe that they are not sinners in need of forgiveness and mercy? Does Auden’s great command — “You shall love your crooked neighbour/With your crooked heart” — somehow not apply to them?

    I know a Latino immigrant who moved to a small Louisiana town for work. Years ago, I was talking to him about what his life there is like. He mentioned how much he enjoyed playing poker with a group of men he’d fallen in with. One of the men had a familiar name from my Louisiana childhood, and then I remembered that decades ago, that man — now quite old — had been a KKK leader in this state. I asked the Latino guy if he knew that.

    “Oh yeah,” he said. “But he’s really not a bad guy at all once you get to know him.”

    I thought: that’s small town life for you. It’s like that in the town where I grew up too. You just cannot afford to be mean to and judgmental of people, even if they have sinned and fallen short of the glory of God, which, believe me, you have done too. The guy you’ll need to call to saw up the tree that fell across your driveway might have MAGA and NRA stickers on his truck. He might also do it for you for free, because he knows you’ve been sick and have medical bills. Many of my friends today back in my hometown are liberals, and I’m sure life is not as pleasant for them in some ways as it would be if they lived in a blue city. But then again, very few people back home talk about politics, and certainly wouldn’t use politics as a reason not to be neighborly. If you live out in the country, you can’t afford to be that way, and besides, it just doesn’t matter that much to us.

    A story from St. Francisville, where I’m from: a liberal friend there told me that back in the late 1980s, a gay male couple moved to town. One of them was dying of AIDS, and wanted to live in the country for as long as his life was left. They started attending the local Episcopal church. My liberal friend said that nobody at the church flew rainbow flags (I speak metaphorically), but they also welcomed this couple, and cared for them with meals and chores and companionship, until the very end. If you had polled the congregation back then, you probably would have found very few who would have said much good about homosexuality. And back then, people were a lot more afraid of AIDS than they are today. But that did not matter. What mattered was that here, in front of us, in the flesh, were two people in need of our love and care. And that they received, because they were neighbors.

    That doesn’t make St. Francisville paradise. But it does make it humane, and livable.

    The local liberals may chafe at their minority status, but they’re nice people too. One of my best friends back home is super-liberal, and he wouldn’t think twice about rushing to help out a neighbor like Heffernan, whatever her politics. It just would not cross his mind to do anything else. This isn’t a left-right thing; it’s basic human decency. The lady who runs the coffee shop in my hometown is pretty liberal, and her clientele is no doubt mostly conservative, but nobody cares. Why should they care? Are you a kind person? Do you treat others with respect? Then you are welcome, even if your politics leave a lot to be desired, either way. I don’t know if it’s like this outside the South, but down here, it would be a sorry man who wouldn’t plow his neighbor’s driveway on account of she hates Trump.

    This Heffernan column is so revealing. Is that really how urban media liberals see the rest of America: as a place full of people as bitter and as judgmental as themselves? Heffernan’s column is what happens when people who have extraordinary power to shape the media discourse live in a political monoculture. It’s like the WEIRD phenomenon, in which psychological research to determine what is normative for humans has been done solely on Westerners, whose psychological profiles are very different from those of people from around the world. The baseline of normal behavior is actually quite misleading, the theory goes, because the psychology of people formed in Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, Democratic cultures is meaningfully different.

    A friend of mine lives in a country resort town that has been overrun during Covidtide with rich coastal liberals escaping the plague. He says that they have made life there miserable. They are snotty, entitled, and treat the locals as exotics to be patronized. He says they are bringing with them the same attitudes toward life that ruined California. I’d bet that Heffernan’s Trumpy neighbors are happy to help her, but they’ll also be happy to see the back of her too, carrying those high-and-mighty liberal attitudes back to New York.

    Bless her heart, Virginia Heffernan doesn’t know any better. She is the product of elite colleges and urban liberal media culture, and doesn’t understand that one doesn’t politicize neighborliness. One doesn’t look at one’s neighbors and sort the decent from the indecent based on how they vote. If our big-city newsrooms had more people in them who had some sort of real understanding of and sympathy for people like Heffernan’s snowplowers, we might not be such a divided country. But we all know that when the papers hire for “diversity,” they really mean they want to get ten different flavors of liberal.

    So, the Snowplow Test: Do you live in a place where people will plow your driveway without wanting something in return, because it’s the neighborly thing to do? If so, then that’s where you want to live. If not, well, better hope that when hard times come, you’ve made enough money to take care of yourself and your family, because you’re going to need it.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/08/2021 – 23:00

  • Russia, Iran & China To Hold Joint Naval Drills As CENTCOM Chief Blasts Iran As "Driver Of Instability"
    Russia, Iran & China To Hold Joint Naval Drills As CENTCOM Chief Blasts Iran As “Driver Of Instability”

    On Monday Russia announced plans to hold joint naval drills with Iran and China in the Indian Ocean, according to Reuters, which cites comments made by Moscow’s ambassador to Tehran. Russian Ambassador Levan Dzhagaryan said, “The next multilateral naval exercises will take place in the northern part of the Indian Ocean in mid-February 2021.”

    It comes just after the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier was ordered out of its Mideast region of responsibility at the start of this month. The Nimitz is headed home to its base in Washington state, after Trump kept it in the Indian Ocean and gulf region on standby amid ratcheting tensions with Iran. Biden then ordered it home within his first couple weeks in office.

    Via TASS

    Russia, China, and Iran last held naval drills in the region in a December 2019 exercise. Amb. Dzhagaryan detailed in his comments initially given to Russian state media that the joint drills are expected to focus on “search and rescue” operations as well as maritime security focused on shipping. Interestingly it comes following the summer of 2019 ‘tanker war’ showdown with the UK and US.

    The announcement also comes just as the US, Japan, and Australia are conducting joint drills out of Guam specifically aimed at countering a theoretical future attack from big powers like China or Russia. These drills, dubbed Cope North 2021, are expected to run until Feb. 19.

    Also on Monday the head of US Central Command, Gen Kenneth McKenzie, issued his first public remarks since President Biden entered the White House last month.

    He blasted Iran as the main and “most challenging driver of instability” in the region, while further describing that Tehran and Washington are currently in a state of “contested deterrence”.

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    Gen. McKenzie said, “For more than forty years, the Iranian regime has funded and aggressively supported terrorism and terrorist organizations, and defied international norms by conducting malign activities which destabilized not only the region but global security and commerce as well.”

    “Our presence in the region, mostly defensive in nature, has brought us to a period of contested deterrence with Iran,” he added. “This presence sends a clear and unambiguous signal about our capabilities and will to defend partners and international interests, a signal that has been clearly received by the Iranian regime.”

    The CENTCOM chief’s comments were surprisingly blunt at a moment it remains very up in the air whether Washington and Tehran will engage toward restoring the 2015 nuclear agreement, or JCPOA. Iran has told the US it must first drop sanctions if it hopes to restore participation, while Washington has made it clear Iran must take the first step toward restoring uranium enrichment caps per the deal’s stipulations.

    Gen. McKenzie’s bold remarks will certainly only add to the controversy and sense of uncertainty looming over the nuclear deal’s future fate. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/08/2021 – 22:40

  • IMF Wants To Use "Digital Footprint Of Customers' Online Activities" To Assess Creditworthiness
    IMF Wants To Use “Digital Footprint Of Customers’ Online Activities” To Assess Creditworthiness

    Authored by Robert Wheeler via The Organic Prepper blog,

    For years, researchers have warned of a system in which the government controls every aspect of its citizens’ lives. Every citizen would have to rely entirely on the government to survive in this system. This system has been openly discussed for many years by the “ruling class.” Aka: those who have been allotted social credit (or not) and power based upon their views and opinions. 

    The system has already begun in China and is now spreading globally

    In a recent post, “What is Really New In Fintech,” on the IMF blog (International Monetary Fund), authors Arnoud Boot, Peter Hoffmann, Luc Laeven, and Lev Ratnovski suggest “rapid technological change” in the financial industry. Many social media and other online platforms are now creating and accepting payments. This revolutionary change in the banking world could change the face of finance forever. 

    As a result of this rapid change, the authors bring up the following questions:

    • What are the transformative aspects of recent financial innovation that can uproot finance as we know it?

    • Which new policy challenges will the transformation of finance bring?

    To answer these questions, the authors wrote: 

    Recent IMF and ECB staff research distinguishes two areas of financial innovation. One is information: new tools to collect and analyse data on customers, for example for determining creditworthiness. Another is communication: new approaches to customer relationships and the distribution of financial products. We argue that each dimension contains some transformative components.

    The authors mention the importance and functionality of “determining creditworthiness.” The method they want to use to do so can be found in the section labeled “New Types Of Information,” where they write (emphasis ours):

    The most transformative information innovation is the increase in use of new types of data coming from the digital footprint of customers’ various online activities—mainly for creditworthiness analysis.

    Credit scoring using so-called hard information (income, employment time, assets, and debts) is nothing new. Typically, the more data is available, the more accurate is the assessment. But this method has two problems. First, hard information tends to be “procyclical”: it boosts credit expansion in good times but exacerbates contraction during downturns.

    The second and most complex problem is that certain kinds of people, like new entrepreneurs, innovators, and many informal workers, might not have enough hard data available. Even a well-paid expatriate moving to the United States can be caught in the conundrum of not getting a credit card for lack of credit record, and not having a credit record for lack of credit cards.

    Fintech resolves the dilemma by tapping various nonfinancial data: the type of browser and hardware used to access the internet, the history of online searches, and purchases. Recent research documents that, once powered by artificial intelligence and machine learning, these alternative data sources are often superior than traditional credit assessment methods, and can advance financial inclusion, by, for example, enabling more credit to informal workers and households, and firms in rural areas.

    The type of browser used could potentially indicate a different ranking for browsers that heavily track users, like Chrome, vs. browsers that emphasize privacy, like Brave.

    So what does this all mean for our financial future?

    It means the IMF authors suggest the global banking network begin using a history of online searches and purchases to determine “creditworthiness.” In other words, do you read CNN and purchase sports memorabilia? You’re approved! Do you read The Organic Prepper and buy “conspiracy” or “prepping” material? We’re sorry, you can not be approved at this time based on your credit score.

    In Brandon Turbeville’s 2019 article Social Media, Universal Basic Income, and Cashless Society: How China’s Social Credit System Is Coming To America he wrote: 

    “Unbeknownst to most people, there appears to be a real attempt to create a system in which all citizens are rationed their “wages” digitally each month in place of a paycheck or ability to gain or lose money. This system would see any form of dissent resulting in the cut off of those credits and the ability to work, eat, or even exist in society. It would not only be the end of dissent but of any semblance of real individuality.”

    Turbeville outlines a plan to create a Universal Basic Income (UBI). The scheme, tied to a social credit system, will essentially cut off the financial lifeline to anyone who does not entirely tow the establishment line. I encourage you to take a look at the article and see for yourself how this scheme is coming together. For more information, here’s an article that compares UBI to modern feudalism.

    With Biden’s new administration that is openly more “global” in its outlook, the IMF has already stated that it will seek to reset its relationship with the United States and that Biden’s “commitment to multilateral institutions and his pledge to re-enter the Paris climate agreement should help the IMF advance its own targets.”

    And you thought it was challenging to gain approval before…

    The pairing of online history with credit scores is bad enough. Doing so has prevented many otherwise creditworthy citizens from accessing what they need to start businesses, buy homes, rent apartments, or buy cars. Some states have suggested laws that use your search history and social media when being assessed for your worthiness to purchase a firearm, and the Bank of America has made it incredibly clear just this past week that your purchases and financial records are by no means private.

    However, pairing both of those with the Universal Basic Income is even worse. We are fast approaching a time where even the slightest difference of opinion from the norm (i.e., the ruling class) can result in a complete freeze out of the “offender” from the entire society.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/08/2021 – 22:20

  • BofA Spots A Demand Problem With Semiconductors
    BofA Spots A Demand Problem With Semiconductors

    BofA’s Michael Hartnett released a client note last Thursday titled “Big Fed, Big Tech, Big Yields.” The note had a lot of useful information. ZeroHedge Premium can see the report in full here. More importantly, within the chart pack, Hartnett outlined how the semiconductor book-to-bill ratio, otherwise considered an important leading indicator of demand trends, could be rolling over.

    The semiconductor book-to-bill is a ratio of three-month moving averages of worldwide bookings and billings for North American-based semiconductor equipment manufacturers. It’s widely used as a leading indicator of demand trends within the industry. 

    The data shown below shows semiconductor equipment bookings outpaced equipment billings on a three-month moving average since the steep drop at the beginning of the virus pandemic in early 2020 but has since stalled in early 2021. Hartnett overlays the PHLX Semiconductor Sector on a year-over-year basis with a red arrow pointing down, suggesting future demand issues within the industry could result in a correction.

    PHLX Semiconductor Sector has stalled out for the last four weeks. 

    Here are other notable charts Hartnett lays out in the client note: 

    Central bank liquidity versus the market cap of Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google, Microsoft, Netflix, and Tesla. Thank the Federal Reserve for inflating the stock market bubble in tech. 

    Has China’s credit growth peaked? If so, this could have significant impacts on the global economy’s future growth. For more on this read, ““Peaking” China Credit Impulse Suggests Copper Prices May Have Topped.” Premium users can read a more in-depth analysis of China’s credit growth in a note titled “In Historic Reversal, China’s Credit Impulse Just Peaked: What This Means For Global Markets.” 

    … and of course, BofA’s Bull & Bear Indicator is at 7.5, nearing “extreme bullish” levels which would be above 8. 

    Despite the semiconductor shortage, the slump in the book-to-bill ratio suggests demand weakness could be ahead. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/08/2021 – 22:00

  • Journalist Andy Ngo On How Antifa Wants To "Destroy Democracy"
    Journalist Andy Ngo On How Antifa Wants To “Destroy Democracy”

    Gabriel Nadales, a former Antifa activist who now works for Campus Reform’s parent organization, the Leadership Institute, sat down with journalist Andy Ngo to talk about his new book, Unmasked: Inside Antifa’s Radical Plan to Destroy Democracy.

    By unmasking Antifa’s true goal and exposing the group as an extremist illiberal movement, Ngo makes the case to show why the mainstream left should not support Antifa or the Black Lives Matter organization.

    Nadales and Ngo discussed how higher education promotes Antifa’s values while Ngo highlighted that several college professors were arrested amid the 2020 Portland Antifa riots.

    Finally, Nadales and Ngo touched upon Big Tech’s censorship of conservatives while Facebook and Twitter allow far-left Antifa militants to organize on their platforms.

    Watch the full interview below:

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/08/2021 – 21:40

  • Hacker Tried To Poison Entire Florida Town By Raising Chemical Levels In Water Supply
    Hacker Tried To Poison Entire Florida Town By Raising Chemical Levels In Water Supply

    A town in Florida has been target of a hack which briefly altered chemicals in its water supply to “potentially damaging levels” according to local media reports. Federal and local authorities are currently investigating the computer network intrusion which happened last Friday morning, the alarming details of which are emerging Monday.

    Plant operators overseeing the small city of Oldsmar’s water supply began observing strange activity on their monitors. That’s when technicians noticed that sodium hydroxide levels (or lye), which is used to treat the city’s water in small amounts in order to control acidity while removing heavy metals, was being remotely pushed higher. 

    Water treatment plant file image, Getty

    Technicians noticed the chemical levels being subject of unauthorized external manipulation in real time and immediately moved to restore the sodium hydroxide input to its safe, correct levels. The AP detailed based on local reporting: “A plant worker first noticed the unusual activity at around 8 a.m. Friday when someone briefly accessed the system.” 

    “At about 1:30 p.m., someone accessed it again, took control of the mouse, directed it to the software that controls water treatment and increased the amount of sodium hydroxide,“ the report continued.

    The hacker or hackers have yet to be uncovered and apprehended. According to details announced by the county sheriff Bob Gualtieri and featured in Tampa Bay Times: 

    Someone remotely accessed a computer for the city’s water treatment system and briefly increased the amount of sodium hydroxide, also known as lye, by a factor of more than 100, Gualtieri said at a news conference Monday. The chemical is used in small amounts to control the acidity of water but it’s also a corrosive compound commonly found in household cleaning supplies such as liquid drain cleaners.

    “This is obviously a significant and potentially dangerous increase,” the Pinellas County sheriff added. 

    Control panel at a Miami water treatment plant, Getty Images

    He further explained that the hacker’s changes inside the system were detected before any damage was done that could affect the public: “The public was never in danger,” Gualtieri said additionally. “Even if the plant operator had not quickly reversed the increased amount of sodium hydroxide, it would’ve taken between 24 and 36 hours for that water to hit the water supply system.”

    The Oldsmar water treatment plant is responsible for supplying water to an estimated 15,000 residents along with dozens of businesses. It essentially appears the hacker was attempting to poison the drinking water for an entire town.

    Police press conference revealing the hack and its extent to the public on Monday:

    Currently the FBI and Secret Service have joined county sheriff efforts at attempting to trace the hack.

    The alarming incident comes following federal officials and cybersecurity experts over the past several years expressing anxiety over the vulnerability of vital US infrastructure to potentially devastating hacks, particularly from foreign entities, which could in some cases actually threaten lives.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/08/2021 – 21:20

  • Parents Sue Robinhood After 20-Year-Old Son Commits Suicide Over Options Confusion
    Parents Sue Robinhood After 20-Year-Old Son Commits Suicide Over Options Confusion

    To better understand why Robinhood is so popular among millennial investors, it’s best to think about game design. The Robinhood stock trading app feels and plays very much like a video game, but of course, it’s a stock-trading game. The ‘in-game’ purchases are equities and options of real publicly traded companies. 

    During the pandemic, the platform erupted with young inexperienced traders, who could approve themselves on the app as ultra-sophisticated traders with the touch of a button. To date, Robinhood has close to 20 million users. 

    As we sadly detailed here, the devastating suicide of 20-year-old Alex Kearns last June, after discovering he faced a loss of over $700k on his massively-levered options account, exposed the very real downside of the speculative mania in the stock market. 

    In a note left for his family, Kearns said he had “no clue about what I was doing” and never intended to “take this much risk.”

    On Monday, Kearns’ parents filed a lawsuit, first obtained by CBS News, which accused Robinhood of “wrongful death, negligent infliction of emotional distress, and unfair business practices.”

    In the lawsuit, Dan and Dorothy Kearns allege Robinhood purposely targets young inexperienced customers, then within the app pushes them to engage in highly complex trades.

    They said the app also provided no “meaningful customer support” to resolve their son’s trade issues. 

    One weekend in June, Robinhood restricted Kearns account, indicating that his new balance totaled negative $730k. Robinhood sent another automated message detailing how he needed “immediate action” in resolving his account status by depositing $170k to settle up. 

    According to his parents’ lawyer, the money Kearns thought he lost may not have been lost because the options bets were structured. 

    “He thought he blew up his life. He thought he screwed up beyond repair,” Dan Kearns said. 

    When Kearns received the message from Robinhood, it appeared he freaked out. Without adequate customer support, the young inexperienced trader could not reach out to anyone for an explanation. All he received was an automated message from the company. 

    The messages read: 

    “Thanks for reaching out to our support team!” The email said, “We wanted to let you know that we’re working to get back to you as soon as possible, but that our response time to you may be delayed.” The company assigned him a case number, 06849753.

    “And their response was a canned reply,” his father said. “Basically, ‘We’ll get back to you later.'”

    His father went on to say all his son wanted were answers, but Robinhood didn’t have any. 

    Sadly, the day after Kearns committed suicide. Robinhood sent his account an automated email said the trade issue had been resolved and owed no money. 

    Here’s what the message said:

    “Great news!” The email read, “We’re reaching out to confirm that you’ve met your margin call and we’ve lifted your trade restrictions. If you have any questions about your margin call, please feel free to reach out. We’re happy to help!”

    Critics of Robinhood, such as William Galvin, Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth and the chief financial regulator in the state of Massachusetts, said the online discount brokerage firm has been “very deliberate” in suckering new, inexperienced investors onto its platform. 

    In December, Galvin’s office filed a complaint against Robinhood that said the investing app is very much modeled after a video game. 

    In Massachusetts alone, Galvin said there had been more than 600 examples of Robinhood users who shouldn’t have been approved for complex options trading. 

    Before Kearns killed himself, he wrote a note to his parents that read: 

    “How was a 20-year-old with no income able to get assigned almost $1 million worth of leverage?” He added, “The puts I bought/sold should have canceled out, too, but I also have no clue what I was doing now in hindsight. There was no intention to be assigned this much and take this much risk, and I only thought that I was risking the money that I actually owned. If you check the app, the margin investing option isn’t even ‘turned on’ for me. A painful lesson. F*** Robinhood.”

    … and keep in mind, Robinhood’s business model relies upon payment for order flow to market makers, such as Citadel, as their only profit engine instead of trading commissions. This means that Robinhood has to continue attracting new users to boost revenues. 

    Robinhood is also facing multiple class-action lawsuits from customers over its decision to restrict GameStop trading and other popular meme stocks, leading to steep losses for customers.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/08/2021 – 21:00

  • Vietnam Culls 100,000 Poultry As Bird Flu Spreads To 14 Provinces
    Vietnam Culls 100,000 Poultry As Bird Flu Spreads To 14 Provinces

    Reuters reports Vietnam has culled more than 100,000 chickens this year as an outbreak of the avian flu hits poultry farms in more than one dozen provinces.

    The Vietnamese government released a statement on Monday outlining how the highly pathogenic H5N1 and H5N6 bird flu strains have spread across 14 provinces in 39 days. 

    To mitigate the spread, the government has culled more than 100,000 chickens. 

    “The risk for the outbreaks to spread on a larger scale is very high,” the statement said.

    Vietnam’s total poultry flock is around 460 million birds. So the outbreak is not sizeable but definitely notable as bird flu outbreaks have been reported in the country over the last few years.

    Meanwhile, the country culled tens of thousands of pigs in late 2020 to curb the spread of African swine fever. 

    The outbreaks have been manageable for the country’s Department of Animal Health. If there is more spreading, readers should be on the lookout for government travel restrictions around outbreak areas. So far, none have been posted.

    Last week, we reported that China, a country that borders Vietnam, has had what one farmer told Reuters African swine fever contagion “is bad” right now. This has kept Chinese pig prices elevated, with possible meat shortages later in the year.

    ADMCF Wildlife tweeted “While #COVID19 has our attention, don’t forget all the other zoonotic risks out there! Multiple ongoing outbreaks leading to import bans by HongKong Gov.”

    • H5N8 avian flu in the UK
    • H5N8 avian flu in South Korea
    • H5N8 avian flu in Denmark
    • H5N8 avian flu in Hungary

    Readers should keep an eye on further developments of the bird flu and African swine fever possibly spreading around Asia and even Europe.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/08/2021 – 20:40

  • China To "Seriously Sanction" Any Boycotters Of 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics
    China To “Seriously Sanction” Any Boycotters Of 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics

    Chinese state media is threatening Western officials and nations with “serious sanctions” should there be any largescale attempt to boycott the China-hosted Winter Olympic games scheduled for 2022.

    It comes amid a growing and increasingly growing movement, centered especially out of Canada, which is seeking to do just that. A number of Canadian MPs are currently calling for a boycott based on widespread and persistent reports that Communist authorities in China are carrying out systematic persecution of ethnic Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang region.

    The movement to hold China to account was picked up in The Guardian late last week, which highlighted the well-organized efforts of over 180 human rights groups that have called for the boycott.

    “The coalition of groups – primarily regional associations in support of Tibet, Taiwan, the Uighur community and Hong Kong – said the hopes in 2015 that awarding Beijing the Games would be a catalyst for progress, had faded,” The Guardian wrote while citing an ‘open letter’.

    Advocates of a boycott are angry that China was awarded the 2022 games in the first place. They write in the open letter which is now gaining global traction:

    “The IOC [ International Olympic Committee] refused to listen in 2008, defending its decision with claims that they would prove to be a catalyst for improved human rights. As human rights experts predicted, this decision proved to be hugely misplaced; not only did China’s human rights record not improve but violations increased substantially without rebuke.”

    “Now, in 2021, we find ourselves back in the same position with the IOC who are refusing to act despite the clear evidence of genocide and widespread and worsening human rights failures.”

    Calls for a boycott prompted a reaction out of the White House, with spokeswoman Jen Psaki days ago saying, “We’re not currently talking about changing our posture or our plans as it relates to the Beijing Olympics.”

    However, this didn’t satisfy Chinese state media, which is now issuing preemptive threats over the matter.

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    On Sunday prominent state media mouthpiece Hu Xijin, who as the English language Global Times editor often echoes the thinking of government leaders in Beijing, tweeted that “China will seriously sanction any country that follows such a call.”

    He further called the movement for a boycott “unpopular” and unlikely to gain serious traction; however, given his fierce reaction he no doubt sees it as a significant “threat” to China’s prestige and reputation.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/08/2021 – 20:20

  • Biden Warns China Should Expect "Extreme Competition" From US
    Biden Warns China Should Expect “Extreme Competition” From US

    During his wide-ranging interview with CBS televised just ahead of the Super Bowl Sunday night, President Biden said China is in for “extreme competition” from the United States under his leadership while still urging for the two economic powerhouses to establish a new relationship which avoids conflict. 

    “I know him pretty well,” Biden said in the “Face the Nation” interview while saying that when he next speaks to President Xi the two will have “a whole lot to talk about.” But Biden also vowed to hold Beijing to account for its severe human rights abuses – in reference to widespread reports of severe persecution and ‘reeducation camps’ targeting the ethnic Uighur Muslim minority.

    Via AP

    “I’ve said to him all along that we need not have a conflict,” Biden said of his Chinese counterpart.

    “But there’s going to be extreme competition . . . I’m not going to do it the way Trump did. We’re going to focus on international rules of the road.” Biden still made it clear he does not intend to go “softer” on China when compared to Trump. On this point, FT noted in its review of Biden’s latest comments:

    Biden, who spent considerable time with Xi as vice-president to Barack Obama, said the Chinese leader was “very bright” but “doesn’t have a democratic, small D, bone in his body”. At one point during the Democratic primary race last year, Biden described him as a “thug”. 

    In the first three weeks of the administration, senior US officials have taken a hard rhetorical stance towards China over everything from its rights record in Xinjiang and Hong Kong to its military activity near Taiwan.

    Here’s a clip of the key part of the latest CBS interview wherein Biden said:

    “But there’s gonna be extreme competition. And I’m not going to do it the way he knows. And that’s because he’s sending signals as well. I’m not gonna do it the way Trump did. We’re gonna focus on international rules of the road.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Indeed based on the latest statements on China out of Antony Blinken, the White House plans to continue Trump’s pressure campaign despite Biden’s assertion he’ll go about it differently.

    Biden’s claim is that unlike Trump, he’ll keep a “tough” stance on China but in a way that focuses on the “international rules of the road” – though it’s unclear precisely what this vague statement means.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/08/2021 – 20:00

  • Government Fail: "We've Turned Teens Into Lockdown Lab Rats"
    Government Fail: “We’ve Turned Teens Into Lockdown Lab Rats”

    Via 21stCenturyWire.com,

    The verdict is clear: the imposition of lockdowns and social distancing, along with delays in getting children and adolescents back into schools – has been fatal for society, creating a slow motion mental health explosion that could last for decades.

    To anyone actually paying attention, warnings and concerns have been raised for months by many different people and advocacy groups, but rather than considering the spectre of permanent arrested development, governments have such dismissed concerns as a low priority in relation to ‘stopping the spread of the virus.’ Instead, virtue-signalling individuals in government, along with teachers unions, have retreated into the irrational world hypochondria and paranoia and leaving the youth hanging out to dry in the process – despite the fact that near zero risk of young people ever becoming ill from COVID-19. Similarly, most teachers are similarly in a low risk of ever becoming seriously ill from coronavirus.

    Last summer, an open letter was sent to UK Education Secretary Gavin Williamson, outlining the damage done by the government China-inspired reactionary ‘mitigation’ measures, and called for a return to ‘normal life.’ The letter was signed by more than 100 specialists in psychology, mental health and neuroscience, and published in The Sunday Times, stating:

    “As experts working across disciplines, we are united as we urge you to reconsider your decision and to release children and young people from lockdown.

    “Allow them to play together and continue their education by returning to preschool, school, college and university, and enjoy extra-curricular activities including sport and music as normally, and as soon, as possible.”

    Seven months later, the situation has deteriorated even further. The psychological impact is no longer a potential harm, it’s now manifest.

    Timandra Harkness at UnHerd writes…

    Last year an experiment was carried out on a group of adolescents to see how they would respond to being denied contact with others of the same age. The results were stark — starved of interaction with their own generation, the adolescents subsequently grew up to be more angry and fearful, drank more alcohol and found it harder to interact with others.

    The adolescents in questions were, of course, rats, but many of their human equivalents might wonder if a similar experiment was being carried out on them, too. Certainly it’s not a good time to be a kid. Teenagers in previous national crises risked being bombed out of their houses, killed by polio or Spanish Flu, or being sent to fight in the trenches. What Covid is wreaking is relatively invisible, and while the disease dominating the world is vanishingly unlikely to kill anyone under 25, there is a parallel epidemic of anxiety and depression crushing its way through young minds. The Royal College of Psychiatrists is warning that the psychological damage caused by the last 12 months could last for years.

    Rates of referral to child and adolescent mental health services were already alarmingly high before the pandemic; in the last year, they’ve gone up by 20%, to nearly 1 in 20 as teenagers are forced to stay home with their stressed families and live their entire lives through a screen: education, entertainment, their grandparents’ funerals and their own school-leaving prom. And, most important for teenagers, their social life.

    Adolescents need their social life the way babies need food, sleep and warmth. Everything from neuroscience to centuries of human experience tells us that the process of becoming an adult happens through spending less time with parents and more time with peers. By hanging out with friends and classmates, developing our first sexual and romantic attachments, competing and admiring, going too far and having to repair social bonds, we learn to be autonomous and independent — just as our rat cousins do.

    And yet, as the researchers on the rat experiment noted, findings in rodents don’t map simply onto human teenagers. For a start, none of the rats driven to drink by their solitary confinement had access to social media.

    Ever since teenagers first discovered that the smartphone in their pocket could connect them, not only to a boundless world of human knowledge and feline video action, but to their friends, rivals and potential love interest, adults have worried the damage it is doing. A January 2021 report on young people’s wellbeing and mental health is the latest to associate “heavy social media use” with worse wellbeing, especially for girls…

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/08/2021 – 19:40

  • Manhattan Office Supply Soars To Record As Remote-Working Dominates 
    Manhattan Office Supply Soars To Record As Remote-Working Dominates 

    New York City’s commercial real estate is still on shaky ground. A new report shows a record amount of office space available in Manhattan as remote working continues to dominate. 

    Citing a new report via investment management firm Colliers International, Bloomberg says office availability increased to 14.9% in January, the highest since the Dot Com bust (2000). 

    Leasing plunged by 47% over the month compared with the same period last year. Asking rents are on a waterfall trajectory, falling for the seventh consecutive month to $73.65 a square foot, the lowest in three years. Not even at these prices are companies willing to set up shop or expand office space in the borough. 

    Supply is another issue. Since the pandemic began, companies based out of densely packed skyscrapers shifted employees to home and have made some of those working environments permanent. This has led to companies reducing their overall corporate footprint. 

    While the borough’s overall commercial real estate conditions have a negative outlook, there were some signs of optimism. “Leasing in Manhattan reached 1.9 million square feet (about 176,500 square meters) in January, the highest level since July, and 20% higher than the 2020 monthly average,” said Bloomberg.

    One notable large lease was Beam Suntory, an American company named Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd, leasing a 100,000 square feet space at 11 Madison Ave.

    As we noted last month, the return of office workers to the financial district has been nothing short of a disappointment as foot traffic slumps, yet again. 

    Source: Bloomberg 

    The low rate of office workers returning to Manhattan mixed with a record amount of office space available doesn’t bode well for the borough’s recovery. As a whole, the city will lag the rest of the country by a couple of years in terms of an economic recovery. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/08/2021 – 19:20

  • "The Herd Is Coming": Novogratz Sees Bitcoin At $100,000 As "Every Company" Buys It
    “The Herd Is Coming”: Novogratz Sees Bitcoin At $100,000 As “Every Company” Buys It

    Exactly one month ago, following MSTR’s latest purchase of bitcoin which helped push its stock to all time highs, we laid out a simple case for “How bitcoin hits $100,000 next” which boiled down to just one observation: “countless other publicly-traded firms will now rush to convert all their cash (and more) into bitcoin” an observation which was based on something we noticed two months earlier, namely that very soon it would be “cool” – not to mention lucrative – for corporations to buy bitcoin, and once that bandwagon was unleashed, $100,000 bitcoins would be just a matter of time.

    Incidentally, that was also when we – correctly – predicted that Elon Musk would become the first mega-corporation to convert a substantial portion of his cash into bitcoin:

    One such company which we are convinced will announce it is converting billions of its existing cash into bitcoin, is none other than Tesla, whose CEO Elon Musk was urged by MSTR CEO Saylor to make a similar move with Tesla’s money. And since Musk, already the world’s richest man thanks to the most aggressive financial engineering on the planet, has never been one to shy away from a challenge, we are absolutely confident that it is only a matter of time before Tesla announces that it has purchased a few billion in bitcoin.

    It took one month for Elon Musk to do just that.

    We bring all this up (again) because in the latest example that imitation may well be the sincerest form of analytical flattery (by billionaires), late on Monday, billionaire bitcoin preacher Michael Novogratz, the founder of cryptocurrency investment firm Galaxy Digital, said he sees Bitcoin “more than doubling to $100,000 by the end of the year” – sounds nice-round-numberishly familiar – spurred higher as more companies allow customers to use the token to make purchases, a thesis and price target first laid out here on Jan 9.

    Shortly after we tweeted the following rhetorical musing earlier today…

    … which we subsequently refined by suggesting that every company will now scramble to generate the kinds of stock returns that Microstar had achieved in the last 12 months, surpassing even TSLA in percentage terms as it accumulated “billions and billions” of bitcoin.

    … Novograts appeared on Bloomberg TV and said almost verbatim what we have been saying for the past month, namely that “you’re going to see every company in America do the same thing,” referring to TSLA’s $1.5BN purchase, which should propel the crypto to the stratosphere. And furthermore, between corporations adding Bitcoin to treasury funds and the city of Miami also considering adding the cryptocurrency to its balance sheet, “It doesn’t have to be a lot. It’s the messaging that matters, you’re seeing the herd here, and it’s coming.”

    Also repeating what we said in Jan, Novo – whose net worth hit an all time high today in the “billions and billions”, said that other companies would consider moving excess reserves into Bitcoin, perhaps as a hedge against inflation or against a falling dollar.

    Or just to telegraph to their investors to buy their stock, since buying bitcoin is the “cool” thing now, and lead to even faster bonuses than stock buybacks.

    While his enthusiasm was hardly shared by his Bloomberg hosts some of whom have been spectacularly wrong about bitcoin for year and year and years (which is ok because they’ve also been wrong about everything else too), Novogratz said Elon Musk was a “genius” in his decision to “listen to the people,” or weighing the interests of a rising generation.

    “One of the things that connect Bitcoin, and Tesla and solar stocks and ESG investing is millennials and Gen Z, young people are buying into the future, and they see cryptocurrencies — Bitcoin and other currencies — as their currencies.“

    To be sure, skeptics will remain, in no small part due to Bitcoin’s infamous volatility – just a few days ago it plunged 25% before soaring by 50% days later  – has made it difficult for usually risk-averse CFOs to make it a regular part of corporate treasuries, however, with Elon Musk “breaking the seal” so to speak, the stigma of diversifying into such a volatile asset class is now gone and on the contrary, everyone will now scramble to buy some while they still can in hopes of levitating their stock and equity-linked comp in the process.

    In other words, “bitcoin is the new buyback.”

    “Now you got the biggest, the wealthiest man in the world and one of the biggest stories doing it,” Novogratz said. “You’ve got to think other CFOs and CEOs are saying, what should we be doing?”

    Why buying of course, as we said first in November.

    Full Bloomberg TV interview below:

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/08/2021 – 19:00

  • China Arrests High Profile Australian Journalist On Spy Charges 
    China Arrests High Profile Australian Journalist On Spy Charges 

    Fueling tensions amid an already spiraling trade dispute between the two countries, China has formally arrested an Australian citizen and journalist after she was initially detained under mysterious circumstances last summer.

    The now formal arrest of Cheng Lei is under charges of “illegally supplying state secrets overseas” after she long worked as a popular news anchor and analyst for China’s state-run English language news service, CGTN.

    The Australian government has long protested her detention and calls the allegations “baseless” after she was held under a law which gives Chinese authorities the ability to hold and interrogate a suspect for up to six months with no formal charges or access to lawyers.

    A Chinese Foreign Ministry statement said that “China’s judicial authorities have carried out investigation in accordance with the law, they concluded this Australian citizen conducted illegal activities on supplying state secrets overseas so in accordance with law they approved her arrest of February 5. This case is underway,” according to Australian national news.

    “We hope the Australian side will respect China’s judicial authority and stop interfering in China’s legal handling of this case in any way,” the statement added.

    When she initially “disappeared” into Chinese detention, fueling wide speculation as to her fate, Beijing officials indicated she was “suspected of carrying out criminal activities endangering China’s national security.”

    Australian consular officials said they’ve visited Cheng six times since her detention, most recently at the end of January, and it’s as yet still unclear exactly what Beijing is alleging, or whether they have evidence of alleged spying or espionage.

    Meanwhile, over the weekend Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne issued a statement saying Canberra “has raised its serious concerns about Ms. Cheng’s detention regularly at senior levels, including about her welfare and conditions of detention.” Payne added that “We expect basic standards of justice, procedural fairness and humane treatment to be met, in accordance with international norms.”

    Some are speculating that China is upping the ante dramatically in terms of leverage amid the ongoing trade spat which has seen China block key Australian commodities exports. However, Beijing is insisting it is conducting a lawful and legitimate investigation.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/08/2021 – 18:40

  • Biden Appears To Be Expanding The US Occupation Of Syria
    Biden Appears To Be Expanding The US Occupation Of Syria

    Authored by Jason Ditz via AntiWar.com,

    According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, some 50 vehicles in a US military convoy crossed into Syria this weekend and headed for bases in the nation’s northeast Hasakeh Province.

    Details aren’t clear on why the convoy arrived, beyond delivering equipment. The Observatory noted this is the ninth such convoy to enter Syria in 2021, meaning nearly two convoys per week are showing up.

    File image of US convoy entering Syria in past years, AFP/Getty

    While there has been no official announcement on a policy change, this speaks to the Biden Administration’s intentions in Syria, or at least intentions to not leave Syria.

    The US has very limited troop presence left in Syria, and President Trump made much of the remnant just being there to loot oil. With reports of ISIS seeking a resurgence there, it seems the US may have found itself another war, or at least a continuation of the existing war.

    A return to Obama-era priorities in Syria could set the stage for a bigger fight, as they were very keen to impose regime change in Syria before, and may be following the Libya model that saw Moammar Gadhafi deposed, killed, and Libya turned into the wreck it remains to this day.

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    Citing SOHR, one regional report notes:

    According to the Britain-based monitoring group, “this is the ninth Coalition convoy to enter Syria since the beginning of 2021.”

    Nothing Biden has said would suggest otherwise, with the Kurdish YPG expecting a new influx of US support. Some of this will be done under the guise of fighting terrorism, some on claimed US interests in the region.

    No longer content to rob a single oilfield, the US may once again have designs on much more.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/08/2021 – 18:20

  • With Scorching Economy Set To Overheat, Goldman Brings Forward First Rate Hike Estimate
    With Scorching Economy Set To Overheat, Goldman Brings Forward First Rate Hike Estimate

    How quickly things change.

    Just nine short months ago, in May 2020, the market did something it had never done before: it pushed Fed Fund futures for January 2021 negative, meaning that last spring bond traders were betting that sometime around today, overnight rates in the US would be negative as the US economy entered the final stretch of its Japanification implosion.

    Since then things haven’t quite worked out as expected, with long rates rising sharply and the 30Y today briefly breaching 2% for the first time since February 2020, on the back of surging breakeven rate, which rose by 1bp point to touch 2.21%, eclipsing a 2018 high of 2.2078%, and rising to the highest level since 2014 as markets increasingly price in far higher inflation over the next decade.

    And while the market would love to have its bubble-blowing zero-interest rate cake and eat it too for the next several years – as the Fed refuses to hike rates for the foreseeable future now that it is prepared to let the economy “run hot” indefinitely – that is unlikely to be the case especially with BMO calculating that just the surging price of commodities is already tantamount to a 4% headline inflation.

    And sure enough, already we are getting the first rumbling of what could be the next market crisis (which, recall, will be catalyzed by sharply higher inflation which will force the Fed to taper QE first and eventually to hike rates).

    In a note published this afternoon, Goldman hiked its assumption for additional fiscal measures to $1.5 trillion…

    With the passage of the budget resolution (Feb. 5), Congress has completed the first of two steps to provide additional COVID-relief funding along the lines of President Biden’s proposal.Next, committees will draft and vote on legislation. We expect this late in the nweek of Feb. 8. At this stage, we will learn much more about the details, size,and timing, of particular provisions.However, the key decision might not be made for another few weeks, when the Senate is likely to take up its version of the COVID-relief bill. By that point,centrist Democrats who have been the limiting factor on the size of the bill will need to decide how large a bill they are willing to support. We think this amount is likely to be higher than the $1.1 trillion (5% of GDP) wenhad previously assumed, and we are raising of assumption for additional fiscal measures to $1.5 trillion (6.8% of GDP)

    This is a sizable increase – Goldman estimates that the extra $400bn in stimulus is equivalent to nearly 2% of GDP – one which bumps the bank’s Q2 growth forecast from 10% to 11% and taking annual growth in 2021 and 2022 up by about 0.2% each year, to 6.8% and 4.5%respectively.

    At this point, it becomes clear that last week’s warnings from Larry Summers and Olivier Blanchard that the US economy is set to overheat are clearly coming true, which is also why Goldman has to anticipate how the Fed will response to this outlier growth, and inflation.  And it does so in a way that is unlikely to be welcome by the market, because whether it wants to or not, Goldman has to concede that such scorching GDP growth will inevitably mean an earlier tightening by the Fed, and sure enough this is what the bank’s chief economist Jan Hatzius has forecast:

    In light of the upgrade to our growth forecast, the larger-than-expected decline in the unemployment rate in January, and signs of a firmer inflation outlook, we have brought forward our forecast for the first rate hike from the second half of 2024 to the first half.  We expect the FOMC to start tapering its asset purchases in early 2022.

    Since every other banks tends to immediately imitate anything that Goldman’s econ department proposes, we expect that in the coming days we will see a barrage of sellside reports predicting that the first rate hike will be pulled back to early 2024 (or even late 2023 by those banks who really want to impress their clients with their originality), and while stocks will likely ignore this truncated tightening calendar for now, it is only a matter of time before trader euphoria pops once the realization that the Kool-aid is coming to an end starts becoming the dominant narrative.

    The only caveat is that since nobody really knows how long the Fed will allow the economy to “symmetrically” overheat as per its recent Average Inflation Targeting adjustment, those betting that the bubble bursting comes any time soon will likely end up facing substantial losses. Our advice: wait for the Fed to start leaking trail balloons of “first rate hikes.” That will be the hawkish signal that it’s finally time to get out of Dodge.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/08/2021 – 18:00

  • Montana Aims To "Save Women's Sports" From Biden's Executive Order
    Montana Aims To “Save Women’s Sports” From Biden’s Executive Order

    Authored by Abigail Streetman via Campus Reform,

    The Montana House Judiciary Committee passed House Bill 112 in a 62-38 vote on Jan. 25, requiring public school athletes to participate in sports according to their biological sex. 

    The bill, named the “Save Women’s Sports Act” is sponsored by Rep. John Fuller, who told Campus Reform, “I have spent my life’s career defending children, helping them achieve their dreams and advocating for the benefits of sports and athletics for everyone.” 

    The bill passed the Montana House within days of President Joe Biden signing an executive order that would allow biological males who identify as females to compete in women’s sports, as Campus Reform previously reported. 

    According to United States v. Virginia, 518 U.S. 515, 533 (1996) “‘Inherent differences’ between men and women, we have come to appreciate, remain cause for celebration, but not for denigration of the members of either sex or for artificial constraints on an individual’s opportunity.”

    All-American track athlete Doriane Lambelet Coleman, tennis champion Martina Navratilova, and Olympic track gold medalist Sanya Richards-Ross recently wrote, “the evidence is unequivocal that starting in puberty, in every sport except sailing, shooting, and riding, there will always be significant numbers of boys and men who would beat the best girls and women in head-to-head competition. Claims to the contrary are simply a denial of science.”

    A study by the Journal of Applied Physiology found that on average women exhibit about 40 percent less upper body strength and 33 percent less lower-body strength than men. 

    If signed into law, HB 112 would take effect on July 1. 

    Montana’s House voted on a similar piece of legislation on January 25. 

    HB 113 would create the “Youth Health Protection Act.” This act would prohibit health care providers from “prescribing, providing, or administering gender transition procedures to a minor.” The bill failed to pass; a motion to reconsider also failed.  

    At least seven other states have proposed similar legislation.

    Kentucky, Oklahoma, North Dakota, and New Hampshire have joined Montana with their own versions of the “Save Women’s Sports Act.” New Hampshire, Texas, Utah, Mississippi, and Missouri have all introduced legislation that is similar to Montana’s HB 113.

    “I would hope that every state would follow Montana’s example, however, that probably won’t be the case,” Fuller said.

    South Dakota House Bill 1076 would require that citizens’ birth certificates reflect their biological sex, and may not be changed as the result of a gender transition surgery. The House was scheduled to vote on this bill on January 26. 

    However, Health and Human Services deferred to the 41st legislative day. 

    Alabama Senate Bill 10, the “Vulnerable Child Compassion and Protection Act,” prohibits gender transition therapy for minors and also forbids concealing related information from parents. The bill was referred to committee on February 2. 

    “Societies should be judged by how they protect the vulnerable in their midst and yesterday, Montana made a historic statement that they matter,” Fuller said.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/08/2021 – 17:40

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