- Leaked Quarantine Plans Create Chaos As Panicked Italians Sprint For The Exits, Threatening To Spread Virus
Leaked Quarantine Plans Create Chaos As Panicked Italians Sprint For The Exits, Threatening To Spread Virus
As the quarantine begins across the Italian north on Sunday, virology experts at the WHO, CDC and at universities around the world are waiting to see if Rome’s crackdown – coming a little too late, as many have pointed out, given the last two days’ worth of massive increases in the national case total – will work.
With the rules in place until April 3, Bloomberg points out, whether the public and local police and officials go along with the orders will ultimately determine whether they are successful or not.
Italians have become inured to alarming news over the past month as the outbreak has spiraled out of control in Lombardy. But following a flurry of uncontrolled leaks warning about an imminent lockdown as part of the government’s planned emergency decree, restaurants and bars started emptying out and many fled to the train station, where they hopped trains to get out of the region, especially those who had plans to travel elsewhere that were being interrupted by the lockdown.
According to an SCMP reporter in Padua, packed bars and restaurants quickly emptied out as news of a coming lockdown hit, as many people rushed to the railway station. Travellers with suitcases, wearing face masks, gloves and carrying bottles of sanitising gel shoved their way on to the local train.
This appears to have been a phenomenon across the North. The video shows passengers with large bags packed heading toward a cross-country train to take them out of the quarantine zone and into the Italian south, where the virus has penetrated, but infection numbers and deaths remain much lower than in the north.
Footage from Milan train station where suddenly people arrive to flee from the possible quarantine zone pic.twitter.com/gj52lSQgWZ (via @amos8125) #Covid19
— Gregor Peter (@L0gg0l) March 7, 2020
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This could be terrible news for the impoverished south: experts have repeatedly warned that southern Italy – best known as an agricultural and fishing center rife with organized crime – doesn’t possess the medical infrastructure to handle a surge in life-threatening cases of pneumonia.
While Andrew Cuomo has repeatedly insisted during his seemingly never-ending series of press conferences that the panic is worse than the virus itself, in Italy, the situation is rapidly deteriorating on both fronts. One epidemiologist described the series of panic-provoking leaks as “pure madness.”
Fortunately, Italian markets were closed during the panic, and now people have more or less accepted the new rules. But at this point, the horse is already out of the barn. Panicked Italians are now traveling around the country, potentially bringing the virus with them.
“The draft of a very harsh decree is leaked, sparking panic and prompting people to try and flee the [then] theoretical red zone, carrying the virus with them,” wrote Italian virologist Roberto Burioni on Twitter. “In the end, the only effect is to help the virus to spread. I’m lost for words.”
However, especially now that the panic has scattered northern Italians across the country, Alitalia is cancelling international flights, but leaving domestic travel uninterrupted (even as fares plummet as Italians mostly shun traveling during the outbreak). But as Bloomberg reports, whether these new intense restrictions impacting nearly 17 million Italians will be enforced and obeyed remains to be seen.
The most salient details of the Italian quarantine are as follows: In the quarantine region, weddings and funerals have been suspended, as well as religious and cultural events. Cinemas, night clubs, gyms, swimming pools, museums and ski resorts have been closed. Restaurants and cafes in the quarantined zones can open between 06:00 and 18:00 but customers must sit at least 1m (3ft) apart. People have been told to stay at home as much as possible, the BBC reports.
Those who willingly decide to break the quarantine could face three months in jail.
Restrictions apply to all of the Lombardy region, which includes many of Italy’s largest cities and most economically important provinces. According to Turkey’s Anadolou News Agency, along with Lombardy, the quarantine includes the cities of Modena, Parma, Piacenza, Reggio Emilia, Rimini, Pesaro e Urbino, Alessandria, Asti, Novara, Verbano Cusio Ossola, Vercelli, Padova, Treviso and Venice.
The order mostly impacts Lombardy, the region around Milan, as well as vast swathes of Piedmont, Veneto, Emilia Romagna and Marche. Venice is part of the affected zone, while Turin, home to the Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV headquarters, is outside, according to Bloomberg.PM Giuseppe Conte said sports matches will be held without crowds, and that schools in all quarantined locations will be on break until April 3.
Outside the quarantine zone, the decree issues new regulations for the rest of the country, including a recommendation to avoid travel outside home towns unless absolutely necessary, enforcing “social distancing” of one meter in all public venues – that is, encouraging people to stand roughly four feet away from one another – and restricting public events from demonstrations to theater shows.
Elderly people are advised to stay home, and schools and universities will remain closed nationwide until March 15.
Some regions have voiced resistance to different aspects of the order. The Veneto region opposes the inclusion of the Padua, Treviso and Venice provinces in the decree, according to a statement published by Ansa, according to Bloomberg.
Maurizio Rasero, the mayor of Asti, which is in the affected zone, denounced the quarantines as “madness, a disaster we didn’t expect.”
But even in southern Italy where, as we noted above, the outbreak isn’t yet widespread, local governments are taking steps to stop its arrival. The province of Puglia has ordered 14-day quarantines for all entering the province from an affected area. Regional president Michele Emiliano went a step further, telling northerners traveling to his town to turn around and go back.
Even before the outbreak, Italy’s economy was tipping into contraction. Now, the crisis has all but paralyzed business activity in Lombardy, which accounts for one-fifth of the country’s GDP, as well as the rest of the north, which is generally speaking more economically productive than the Italian south.
The impact is clear even in other regions that aren’t subject to the stricter controls. The Pompeii archaeological site near Naples and the Vatican museums are closed until April 3, and an exhibit of Renaissance master Raphael in Rome was halted.
In Rome, the government has decided on Thursday to double emergency spending to 7.5 billion euros ($8.5 billion) to help cushion the economic impact of the virus. It’s also calling up 20,000 doctors, nurses and medical personnel to help deal with the outbreak. Fallout from the virus’s spread is slamming Italy’s key tourism industry, which is worth almost 15% of GDP, at a time when the country is already teetering on the brink of recession.
Sensing the looming threat to economic stability, the EU is playing ball, advising the Italians that their stimulus spending won’t be counted against the bloc’s budgetary thresholds. But will Berlin and Frankfurt play ball when it comes to loosening Germany’s purse strings in violation of the constitutional ‘debt break’?
Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/09/2020 – 02:45 - Escobar: How Putin Saved Europe From Invasion & Erdogan From Himself
Escobar: How Putin Saved Europe From Invasion & Erdogan From Himself
Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Asia Times,
Once again it was Russia that just prevented the threatened ‘Muslim invasion’ of Europe advertised by Erdogan…
At the start of their discussion marathon in Moscow on Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with arguably the most extraordinary diplomatic gambit of the young 21st century.
Putin said:
“At the beginning of our meeting, I would like to once again express my sincere condolences over the death of your servicemen in Syria. Unfortunately, as I have already told you during our phone call, nobody, including Syrian troops, had known their whereabouts.”
This is how a true world leader tells a regional leader, to his face, to please refrain from positioning his forces as jihadi supporters – incognito, in the middle of an explosive theater of war.
The Putin-Erdogan face-to-face discussion, with only interpreters allowed in the room, lasted three hours, before another hour with the respective delegations. In the end, it all came down to Putin selling an elegant way for Erdogan to save face – in the form of, what else, yet another ceasefire in Idlib, which started at midnight on Thursday, signed in Turkish, Russian and English – “all texts having equal legal force.”
Additionally, on March 15, joint Turkish-Russian patrolling will start along the M4 highway – implying endless mutating strands of al-Qaeda in Syria won’t be allowed to retake it.
If this all looks like déjà vu, that’s because it is. Quite a few official photos of the Moscow meeting prominently feature Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu – the other two heavyweights in the room apart from both Presidents. In the wake of Putin, Lavrov and Shoigu must have read the riot act to Erdogan in no uncertain terms. That’s enough: now behave, please – or else face dire consequences.
The second Ataturk
A predictable feature of the new ceasefire is that both Moscow and Ankara – part of the Astana peace process, alongside Tehran – remain committed to maintaining the “territorial integrity and sovereignty” of Syria. Once again, there’s no guarantee that Erdogan will abide.
It’s crucial to recap the basics. Turkey is deep in financial crisis. Ankara needs cash – badly. The lira is collapsing. The Justice and Development Party (AKP) is losing elections. Former prime minister and party leader Ahmet Davutoglu – who conceptualized neo-Ottomanism – has left the party and is carving his own political niche. The AKP is mired in an internal crisis.
Erdogan’s response has been to go on the offensive. That’s how he re-establishes his aura. Combine Idlib with his maritime pretensions around Cyprus and blackmail pressure on the EU via the inundation of Lesbos in Greece with refugees, and we have Erdogan’s trademark modus operandi in full swing.
In theory, the new ceasefire will force Erdogan to finally abandon all those myriad al Nusra/ISIS metastases – what the West calls “moderate rebels,” duly weaponized by Ankara. This is an absolute red line for Moscow – and also for Damascus. There will be no territory left behind for jihadis. Iraq is another story: ISIS is still lurking around Kirkuk and Mosul.
No NATO fanatic will ever admit it, but once again it was Russia that just prevented the threatened “Muslim invasion” of Europe advertised by Erdogan. Yet there was never any invasion in the first place, only a few thousand economic migrants from Afghanistan, Pakistan and the Sahel, not Syrians. There are no “one million” Syrian refugees on the verge of entering the EU.
The EU, proverbially, will keep blabbering. Brussels and most capitals still have not understood that Bashar al-Assad has been fighting al Nusra/ISIS all along. They simply don’t understand the correlation of forces on the ground. Their fallback position is always the scratched CD of “European values.” No wonder the EU is a secondary actor in the whole Syrian tragedy.
I received excellent feedback from progressive Turkish analysts as I attempted to connect Erdogan Khan’s motivations with Turkey’s history and the empires of he steppes.
Their argument, essentially, is that Erdogan is an internationalist, but in Islamic terms only. Since 2000 he has managed to create a climate of denying ancient Turkish nationalist motives. He does use Turkishness, but as one analyst stresses, “he has nothing to do with ancient Turks. He’s an Ikhwani. He doesn’t care about Kurds either, as long as they are his ‘good Islamists.’”
Another analyst points out that, “in modern Turkey, being ‘Turkish’ is not related to race, because most Turkish people are Anatolian, a mixed population.”
So, in a nutshell, what Erdogan cares about is Idlib, Aleppo, Damascus, Mecca and not Southwest Asia or Central Asia. He wants to be “the second Ataturk.” Yet nobody except Islamists sees him this way – and “sometimes he shows his anger because of this. His only aim is to beat Ataturk and create an Islamic opposite of Ataturk.” And creating that anti-Ataturk would be via neo-Ottomanism.
Crack independent historian Dr Can Erimtan, whom I had the pleasure to meet when he still lived in Istanbul (he’s now in self-exile), offers a sweeping Eurasianist background to Erdogan’s dreams. Well, Vladimir Putin has just offered the second Ataturk some breathing room. All bets are off on whether the new ceasefire will metastasize into a funeral pyre.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/09/2020 – 02:00 - Europe Must Not Fall Victim To Erdogan's Blackmail
Europe Must Not Fall Victim To Erdogan’s Blackmail
Authored by Burak Bekdil via The Gatestone Institute,
Turkey’s Islamist strongman, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has threatened Europe several times with “sending millions of refugees your way.”
Turkey would apparently like to see more progress in the talks to grant it admission as a full member of the European Union. At the moment, these membership negotiations have stalled. He may also wish for Western support — from the EU, the United States and all of NATO — for his ideal architecture to install Turkey in northwest Syria.
As Turkish servicemen were recently killed in Syria, with direct Russian military involvement, it is probably safe to assume that the support Erdoğan is seeking, both directly and indirectly, is “support for a NATO ally against Russian aggression”. In addition, Erdoğan would also most certainly like the West overlook his massive democratic deficit, and to help Turkey secure even more dominance over the Greek islands off its coast, as well as its claims on the gas fields beneath the eastern Mediterranean.
On February 27, the Turkish government finally pressed the button to execute the threat: Millions of (mostly Syrian) migrants on Turkish soil were now free to travel to Europe; Turkish border gates were now open.
Why did Erdoğan decide now to resort to the “nuclear option” in his country’s deeply problematic relations with the European Union? It seems, bizarrely, that Erdoğan decided to punish the EU because he was angry with… Russia.
When, on February 27, Syrian forces, backed by Russian air support, killed 34 Turkish soldiers in the Idlib area in northwestern Syria, the event seems to have sent shock waves through a Turkish public, who were already split: between a fiercely nationalistic rhetoric that supports the “heroic mission” that took Turkish troops into Syria, and a rational questioning of the wisdom of confronting Syria and Russia — and Iran — in what looks increasingly like a Syrian quagmire. There also may well have been concerns that public unrest over coffins wrapped in the crescent and star flag could erode Erdoğan’s declining popularity even further.
For Turkey, open confrontation with Russia is not an option. In November 2015, the last time Turkey tried punishing Russia, which had placed sanctions on Turkish businesses after Turkey downed a Russian jet, the move brought Erdoğan to his knees: in a rare show of repentance, Erdoğan apologized to Russian President Vladimir Putin for having brought down the Russian Su-24 fighter jet in Syrian airspace.
A marriage of convenience followed: Cold War-era foes became “strategic partners” — a title crowned by a deal that Turkey would buy Russian-made S-400 surface-to-air defense systems at the expense of Turkey’s defense procurement bond with its NATO allies. Since the Su-24 crisis, Russia, for Erdoğan, has remained “untouchable.”
Cornered by an angry public after the deaths of the 34 soldiers, Erdoğan needed to find a non-Russian adversary to attack, to distract Turkish anger away from him and toward a different chosen target. What better target than the EU, with which most Turks have a love-hate relationship? Opening Turkey’s border gates and flooding Europe with migrants would be sure to please the average Turk, who hates to be living with 3.6 million or so Syrian refugees and — to benefit the chauvinistic Turkish psyche — loves the idea of teaching the Europeans a lesson. The masses always seem to love it when their leaders resort to hostile and patronizing rhetoric against the Europeans.
Echoing Erdoğan’s “angry-in-Syria-but-hitting-Europe” psychology, Turkish Foreign Ministry Spokesman Hamdi Aksoy warned Western nations, including the EU, that if the situation in Idlib deteriorates — in other words, if you do not help us in Idlib you will have even more refugees on your doorstep — the wave of refugees and migrants could continue.
“Some asylum-seekers and migrants in our country, worried about developments, have begun to move toward our western borders,” Askoy said. “If the situation worsens, this risk will continue to increase”.
Ömer Çelik, a spokesman for Erdogan’s ruling party, concurred. “Turkey is no longer able to hold the refugees,” he said.
Tens of thousands of these migrants (not only Syrians) were given free bus rides from Istanbul to Turkey’s land borders with Bulgaria and Greece, about 150 miles west of the city.
Turkish Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu chimed in on March 1, that, in a span of three days, 100,000 refugees had already crossed the borders into Europe, but his declaration seems to have been more propaganda talk than reality. The whole effort looked more like a media stunt than a genuine, well-planned campaign to send hundreds of thousands of migrants into Europe. (In 2015, when the migrant crisis was at its peak, an average 10,000 people a day landed in Greece.)
Shortly after Erdoğan announced his move to open Turkey’s floodgates, Greece shut down its land and maritime borders with Turkey. At the border crossing, hundreds of migrants, in a situation that is truly tragic, faced barbed wire fences and smoke grenades. Some migrants, stuck in the no-man’s land between Turkey and Greece, tried, to escape the smoke, to return to the Turkish side, only to be turned back by the authorities there.
Greece, meanwhile, said that its security forces had prevented 7,000 migrants from entering Greek territory by land at the border crossing. “The Greek government will do whatever it takes to safeguard its territory and protect the European borders,” government spokesman Stelios Petsas announced. Athens then mobilized additional troops at the border crossing. By the weekend of February 28, Greece was operating 52 Navy ships to guard its islands close to Turkey. On March 1, furious migrants clashed with Greek riot police. Officers fired tear gas at the migrants; some, as they sought to force their way into Greece, threw rocks at the police and wielded metal bars against them.
Landings on Greece’s islands appeared to be quieter. Greek police said that at least 500 people had arrived by sea on the islands of Lesbos, Chios and Samos, near the Turkish coast, within a few hours. On Lesbos, locals prevented a boat full of migrants from landing.
Meanwhile Frontex, the EU’s border protection agency, said it was on high alert and had deployed extra support to Greece. “We … have raised the alert level for all borders with Turkey to high,” a Frontex spokeswoman said. “We have received a request from Greece for additional support. We have already taken steps to redeploy to Greece technical equipment and additional officers”.
Europe, unfortunately, to protect its liberty and sovereignty, needs to fight back. It must refuse to accept Erdoğan’s hostages. Securing maritime borders in the Aegean Sea is often a difficult and expensive task, but not militarily impossible. If the first groups in this mini-exodus from Turkey face a serious blockade rather than warm and welcoming locals, potential migrants would be discouraged from taking such a perilous trip.
What Greece alone could achieve, without help from the EU, would be limited: Greece has 1% of the EU’s population but is processing 11% of all asylum applications. Heavyweights from the EU should act quickly to help Greece and Bulgaria seal their borders with Turkey — by financing border security programs, sending additional patrolling personnel and equipment, and by transferring technology and gear for a safer border between Turkey and Europe.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/09/2020 – 01:15 - Panic Purgatory: Oil Crashes To $27; S&P Futures Locked Limit Down, Treasuries Soar Limit Up Amid Historic Liquidation
Panic Purgatory: Oil Crashes To $27; S&P Futures Locked Limit Down, Treasuries Soar Limit Up Amid Historic Liquidation
The Sunday futures fiasco started off on the back foot, with virtually every risk asset that is not nailed down puking with a force unseen since the financial crisis. It has only gotten worse since.
While futures initially tumbled as much as 4.7% in the first minutes of trading, they have not only failed to find any BTFD support, but have been locked at the -5% limit down for nearly two hours with a brief interlude in which they rebounded modestly only to find another wave of buyers. As a reminder, even as thousands of offers build up, they can’t cross due to the limit down state of the Emini.
Amid this unprecedented crash in equities, 10Y Treasury futures have soared, and also for the first time in over a decade, were locked limit up for about an hour, at 139-29+, prompting a brief trading interruption…
… which however failed to do much, with the entire US Treasury curve – including the 30Y – trading not only below the effective fed funds rate, but also below 1.00% for the first time ever…
… as a sudden, furious flash crash just before 10pm ET in both the Australian dollar…
… and the USDJPY…
… most likely the result of a macro fund being margined out and liquidating carry positions, unleashed another bout of risk-off liquidation across asset classes.
And so, with traders unable to either sell equity futures or buy Treasurys, they still can rush into the VIX, which is a long way away from its 70%+ limit up, a number which may be reached but would virtually assure another great depression.
The night’s big irony is that unable to sell anything else, funds – facing historic margin calls on Monday – are selling what they can… such as gold, which after hitting $1700 earlier in the session has tumbled 0.7% as more investors liquidate the safe asset to shore up liquidity ahead of a Monday that nobody will every forget… and in which many, most certainly anyone who was long oil, will lose their jobs.
Meanwhile, the asset that started the evening’s avalanche, crude, continues to crater with West Texas now trading with a $27-handle, down more than $15 (!) from Friday’s close.
Commenting on the unprecedented crash in oil, Pickering Energy’s Dan Pickering put the crash in perspective: “From OPEC share announcement in 2014 it took 14-15 months for oil to break $30 (Feb 2016) This time it took less than 1 trading day. Breathtaking! Energy industry, welcome back to Hell.”
As I type, front month $WTI is trading ~$28/bbl. From OPEC share announcement in 2014 it took 14-15 months for oil to break $30 (Feb 2016) This time it took less than 1 trading day. Breathtaking! Energy industry, welcome back to Hell. #ValueOverVolume
— Dan Pickering (@pickeringenergy) March 9, 2020
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He is right, and nowhere more so than junk bonds: once markets open tomorrow (assuming they are not indefinitely halted), keep a close eye on HYG, which consists more than 10% of energy junk bonds, and is set to plunge by the most on record.
And speaking of the plunge in crude (and “value” energy stocks), tomorrow we may also see the VIXtermination-like vaporization of 3x levered oil and E&P ETFs such as UWT and GUSH, for which the 30% drop in oil will be a liquidation event catalyst.
VelocityShares 3x Long Crude Oil ETN ($UWT) currently has $500mil in assets… https://t.co/gxwGx9tcph pic.twitter.com/nKdEJs45Oy
— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) March 8, 2020
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Curiously, not even a hail mary attempt by Bloomberg, which shortly before midnight blasted that “the Trump administration is drafting measures to blunt the economic fallout from coronavirus and help slow its spread in the U.S., including a temporary expansion of paid sick leave and possible help for companies facing disruption from the outbreak” had absolutely any impact on stocks.
Why? Because not only will any fiscal stimulus less than $2-$3 trillion be roundly ignored by the market, but because at this moment there are only two question on every trader’s mind: at what time on Monday morning will the Fed announce a 50-100bps emergency rate cut – the second in under a week – and, more importantly, will it include the official resumption of QE, and potentially the launch of helicopter money i.e., MMT.
Anything less than this would be a disappointment.
And yet, even if the Fed vows to buy not only stocks but also oil, at this point what it is really buying is just time: time for those who still own financial assets to sell as much as they can before the Fed loses all control, having already lost credibility, culminating in the biggest crash in history.. and a market that is indefinitely halted.
Finally, for all those Millennials who are shocked by this evening’s selloff, we leave the final word to the Stalingrad & Poorski twitter account, who put it best: “This is not crazy. What was crazy was the reckless monetary policies of central banks that led to this.”
Love people calling these moves we are seeing right now ‘crazy’. This is not crazy. What was crazy was the reckless monetary policies of central banks that led to this.
— Stalingrad & Poorski (@Stalingrad_Poor) March 9, 2020
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Then again, as we have so often said, as long as those reckless policies pushed stocks – and the “wealth effect” higher – nobody cared. They will, however, care this time.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/09/2020 – 00:43 - US Coronavirus Cases Surpass 500 As Italian Deaths Surge 57%: Live Updates
US Coronavirus Cases Surpass 500 As Italian Deaths Surge 57%: Live Updates
Summary:
- Italy reports 2nd straight 1,000+ jump in cases, deaths jump 60%; mortality rate in Italy hits 5%
- China daily numbers post another drop on Sunday
- Albania confirms first two cases
- Total US cases surpass 500
- Portugal president goes into self-quarantine
- New York State confirms 16 new cases bringing total north of 100
- Santa Clara reports 5 more cases to 37
- Mass confirms 15 more cases tied to Biogen conference
- Mayor de Blasio says NYC could see hundreds of cases in 2-3 weeks
- Death toll hits 21 as 2 more cases confirmed in Washington State
- Oregon declares state of emergency
- 16 million Italians wake up under quarantine
- Egypt reports Africa’s first coronavirus death, a German citizen
- Pope Francis cancels Sunday address
- Dr. Fauci warns community spread is getting out of control.
- ‘Grand Princess’ to dock in Oakland on Monday
- Saudi Arabia quarantines province
- France, Germany call for bans on events with over 1,000
- Still no word on timing of when ‘Grand Princess’ will land
- Patient in Japan develops meningitis
- Spain death toll hits 17, 600+ cases
- Cuomo says he wants to avoid closing NYC schools, transit if possible
- Iran official death toll hits 194
- Daegu Mayor says outbreak may be slowing as number of new cases falls
* * *
Update (2030ET): China has released its latest numbers, showing just 36 new cases in Hubei – another massive drop.
- MAINLAND CHINA’S TOTAL NUMBER OF CORONAVIRUS DEATHS REACHES 3,119 AS OF END-MARCH 8
- CHINA’S HUBEI PROVINCE, EPICENTRE OF CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK, REPORTS 36 NEW CASES ON MARCH 8 VS 41 ON MARCH 7
Meanwhile, following several scares, the first two cases have been confirmed in Albania, a father and son who just returned from nearby Italy, according to Albanian health officials.
Earlier on Sunday, President Ilir Meta has urged the Albanian government to take emergency measures against the spread of coronavirus in the country.
* * *
Update (1650ET): The office of Portugal’s 71-year-old President President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa said Sunday that he has canceled all public activities and will stay at home amid the coronavirus outbreak, after having recently received a group of students from a school which has since been closed after a student tested positive, ABC News reports.
The infected student wasn’t included in the group who visited the president, and he has so far showed no symptoms.
In Massachusetts, the number of “presumptively” confirmed cases has climbed to 27 as of Sunday, while one additional case has been confirmed by the CDC, according to the Boston Globe, for a total of 28.
So far, 23 of the 28 cases are related to a Biogen employee conference in late February.
Officials said there are 27 presumptive positive coronavirus cases across the state, along with one confirmed case.
The presumptive positive cases, five from Middlesex County ranging in age from 40 to 70, four cases from Norfolk County ranging in age from 40 to 70, and a female whose age and county of residence are presently unknown. The Boston Public Health Commission officials said the other five cases were Boston residents, a woman in her 30s, a woman in her 60s, a man in his 40s, a man in his 50s and a man in his 60s. All patients who tested presumptive positive are isolating at home, state officials said. As always, officials said the risk to the public remains low.
Santa Clara County has reported 5 more cases, bringing its total to 37. Here, Cali health officials are giving their regular updates.
HAPPENING NOW: California officials give coronavirus update. https://t.co/7eziQA8kHx pic.twitter.com/gUCsdUuqhV
— CBS News (@CBSNews) March 8, 2020
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There are 512 cases of the virus in the US as of mid-day Sunday, according to the CDC, along with state and local authorities. Per the CDC there are 49 cases from repatriated citizens from Wuhan (3) and the Diamond Princess (46). Twenty-one are from the Grand Princess cruise ship. According to CNN, the tally of US cases that are detected and tested in the US through US public health systems there have been 442 cases in 33 states and Washington DC, bringing the total number of coronavirus cases to 512.
* * *
Update (1615ET): NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio just warned that there could be :”hundreds” of cases of Covid-19 in the city in a matter of two or three weeks, up from 13 now.
- NEW YORK CITY COULD HAVE 100 CORONAVIRUS CASES WITHIN TWO TO THREE WEEKS, UP FROM 13 NOW -MAYOR DE BLASIO
- NEW YORK CITY COULD AT SOME POINT HAVE HUNDREDS OF POSITIVE CORONAVIRUS CASES -MAYOR DE BLASIO
He then claimed (without evidence) that smoking or vaping could make a person more susceptible.
- SMOKING OR VAPING COULD MAKE PERSON MORE VULNERABLE TO CORONAVIRUS INFECTION – NEW YORK CITY MAYOR DE BLASIO
Meanwhile, two more deaths in Washington State have increased the US death toll to 21, up from 19.
The State Department is cautioning Americans, especially those with existing health conditions, not to travel by cruise ship, citing the increased risk of catching the virus.
“Many countries have implemented screening procedures, denied port entry rights to ships and prevented disembarking,” they said in a tweet.
U.S. citizens, especially with underlying conditions, should not travel by cruise ship. #CDC notes increased risk of #COVID19 on cruises. Many countries have implemented screening procedures, denied port entry rights to ships and prevented disembarking. https://t.co/jh93gZTkpC pic.twitter.com/jI6S0UceVg
— Travel – State Dept (@TravelGov) March 8, 2020
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ABC News reports that two more people have died of Covid-19 in Washington state, citing local health officials.
Both patients – a woman in her 80s and a man in his 90s – are Life Care Center residents, according to the King County Health Department. The woman died on Friday, and the man died on Thursday.
Of the 18 deaths reported in Washington, 16 have been associated with Life Care nursing home facility.
Two deaths have occurred in Florida and another in California, bringing the total in the US to 21.
Elsewhere in Florida, the Regal Princess cruise ship has been forced to remain offshore by the CDC and HHS while two of its crew members are tested for the virus.
If one or both come back positive, that could mean the start of another cruise ship nightmare in the US.
Officials in Clark County Nevada, an area that is mostly contiguous with Las Vegas, has confirmed its second patient.
* * *
Update (1530ET): Yesterday, we reported the six new cases of Covid-19 in British Columbia.
Now, officials in the province have identified another outbreak at a nursing home in the province, the second such outbreak in the Pacific Northwest, in addition to the nursing home in Kirkland, Washington. The pair was infected by a staff member at the Lynn Valley Care Center in North Vancouver. Provincial Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry said the facility is basically on lockdown as the provincial authorities try to keep the virus from spreading.
As we head into the middle of the day in California, let’s circle back to the ‘Grand Princess’, the virus-plagued cruise ship drifting 20 nautical miles off the coast as it awaits plans to dock at the Port of Oakland on Monday. The ship’s captain, John Smith, said Sunday that the crew still doesn’t know at approximately what time they would be docking. Not that it matters: It will take at least a day for the non-priority (i.e. those not dying of Covid-19) passengers to exit the ship. And of course, anybody found to be infected will be quarantined, according to the Washington Post.
The captain added that one passenger in dire need of hospitalization will be taken off the ship Sunday but government authorities have not yet told cruise officials when the remaining passengers would be able to arrive at port.
“We know this will be a disappointment to you, and we share in that disappointment,” the captain said in a message that was shared with WaPo and the r/coronavirus board. “However, we are required to follow the government instructions.”
More than 3,500 people are aboard the Grand Princess, and of the 46 tested for the coronavirus so far, 21 have tested positive. When the ship docks, the cruise line says, guests who are California residents will undergo health screenings and go to federal facilities in the state, while Americans from other states will be taken to locations elsewhere in the country. The crew will be quarantined and treated aboard, the cruise line said Saturday.
The captain said the ship would rendezvous with a Coast Guard cutter to collect prescription medicines and other medications for people on board (one patient is reportedly in danger of missing vital chemo treatments. One of the passengers requires “shoreside hospital care,” he said, so that person will go to shore. The captain did not elaborate on the person’s condition or say whether the person was among those who tested positive.
In France, as the number of confirmed cases grows, officials have called for a ban on events with over 1,000 attendees, after earlier banning events with more than 500. This follows in the footsteps of Germany, where lawmakers made a similar request on Sunday.
* * *
Update (1425ET): A state of emergency impacting certain heavily flooded counties is still in effect from a few weeks ago, but on Sunday, Oregon Gov. Kate Brown has declared a state of emergency over the novel coronavirus in the state. The state of emergency will remain in effect for 60 days, and can be extended if necessary. The Oregon Health Authority has confirmed 14 – 7 of them new – cases of the virus in the state.
Authorities said they expect to see more cases, but emphasized that everyone can take actions to reduce the spread of the virus, according to Oregon Public Radio.
After an employee at a hospital in Danbury, Conn. tested positive, marking the first case in the state, health officials said that the first Connecticut resident to be confirmed positive with Covid-19 is from the town of Wilton, a town in Fairfield County not far from the NY State border. The patient, who is being treated at Danbury Hospital, is a Wilton resident reportedly between the ages of 40 and 50. Officials believe the patient came in contact with the coronavirus on a recent trip to California, the Hartford Courant reports.
Saudi Arabia has closed schools across the kingdom.
Meanwhile, in Japan, doctors have reported an unusual development. One patient who was hospitalized with the virus has developed meningitis, a swelling of the lining in the brain. It’s reportedly the first case where this has happened.
* * *
Update (1330ET): For the second day in a row, Italian health officials on Sunday have reported 1,000+ newly confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus. In addition, deaths have climbed 50% to 366 deaths, up from 233.
The Italian fatality rate has now hit 5%.
In France, the total number of confirmed cases has climbed to 1,126, with 19 deaths. Germany has reported 107 new cases of coronavirus, raising the total to 902, with 40 cases in Berlin.
In Israel, PM Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly weighing a ban on all foreigners entering the country. A few hours ago, Israel closed the rest of its border with Egypt after the country reported the first coronavirus-linked death in Africa. The deceased is a German citizen.
* * *
Update (1130ET): After declaring a state of emergency on Saturday, Gov. Cuomo confirmed 16 more cases in the state on Sunday, raising the state total from 89 to 105.
UPDATE: There are 16 additional confirmed cases of #Coronavirus in NYS, bringing total to 105.
Westchester: 82
NYC: 12
Nassau: 5
Rockland: 2
Saratoga: 2
Suffolk: 1
Ulster: 1We’re testing aggressively & we are seeing the number of confirmed cases go up as expected.
— Andrew Cuomo (@NYGovCuomo) March 8, 2020
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As officials in Washington State try to figure out exactly how many residents of the Life Care Center of Kirkland have died from the virus, one Twitter user pointed out the number of patients who have died at the facility – not at a hospital – since the outbreak began.
Please read.
There have been 11 deaths at Kirkland Life Care Center since Feb. 19 that were not transferred to a hospital before dying. None of them were tested for the CV19 virus.
What is #DontTestDontTell?
This. pic.twitter.com/C9WpY456OV
— Ben Hunt (@EpsilonTheory) March 8, 2020
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In India, officials have confirmed what’s believed to be the first Covid-19-related death. They’re awaiting a final confirmation.
Spain reports 96 new cases of coronavirus and 7 new deaths, raising total to 613 cases and 17 dead.
In Virginia, officials have found what they described as the state’s second presumptive case of coronavirus, bringing the total number of cases in the Washington DC area to seven.
Saudi Arabia has suspended travel to and from Qatif Province, a key eastern province and ordered businesses and government offices there closed after confirming four new cases of the novel coronavirus on Sunday, bringing the total number of infections to 11.
The Army has suspended travel to and from Italy and South Korea for all soldiers and family members because of the coronavirus outbreak until May 6. The order, which affects 4,500 soldiers and family members, comes after that sailor in Naples was confirmed infected.
According to the New York Times, the ‘Grand Princess’ is on its way to dock on Monday at the Port of Oakland, the vessel’s operator said, after initially being refused entry at the port in San Francisco on Thursday. Passengers on the ship who require “acute medical treatment and hospitalization” will disembark first and be taken to secure facilities in Cali. Some 21 crew and passengers (mostly crew) have been infected, and more are being tested.
Most of those under quarantine on the ship, a situation that one passenger described as “hellish”, will linger for at least a day as officials continue the screening process.
California’s Office of Emergency Services said that a joint state and federal effort will begin Monday to disembark passengers from the ship in the port of Oakland. Sick passengers will be taken to medical facilities in California, and those who don’t require immediate care will be housed in federal facilities “for testing and isolation,” according to CBS News.
California residents will be brought to facilities within the state, and non-residents will be taken to locations in other states, including a military base in Marietta, Georgia. OES said 1,000 passengers are California residents. In an interview on “Face the Nation” on Sunday, US Surgeon General Jerry Adams said the White House “is still working” on figuring out where the “disembarked” passengers will be held.
Reuters reports the Mayor of Daegu, the hardest hit city in South Korea that is under quarantine as officials fight the outbreak, says the outbreak might be slowing. He reportedly expressed cautious hope on Sunday that the numbers of new cases may be dropping, after the rate of increase slowed to its lowest in 10 days.
The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported on Sunday 272 new coronavirus cases, for a total of 7,313 in the country. Two further deaths took the toll to 50, it added.
Streets are constantly being disinfected in Daegu, the city hit hardest by the coronavirus in South Korea. The trucks have banners that read, “Stay Strong Daegu.” pic.twitter.com/0dklQCcAhH
— Joseph Kim (@josungkim) March 8, 2020
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The increase was smaller than the day before, though health officials have warned that these figures could change as new tests are processed.
* * *
The drastic new measures announced yesterday in Rome’s draft decree to contain Europe’s worst novel coronavirus outbreak have now been put into practice: Italians awakened on Sunday to conditions that haven’t been seen in the country since the partisans in Giulino di Mezzegra, a small village in the Italian north that is now under quarantine, executed Mussolini.
With the quarantine imposing strict rules governing who can and can’t leave the area, anyone living in Lombardy and 14 other central and northern provinces will need special permission to travel. Milan and Venice, two of the largest cities in the country, which is also Europe’s third-largest economy with a total population of roughly 60 million – are both affected.
Overall, some 16 million Italians will be impacted by the strict quarantines – roughly 25% of the Italian population.
The most salient details of the Italian quarantine are as follows: In the quarantine region, weddings and funerals have been suspended, as well as religious and cultural events. Cinemas, night clubs, gyms, swimming pools, museums and ski resorts have been closed. Restaurants and cafes in the quarantined zones can open between 06:00 and 18:00 but customers must sit at least 1m (3ft) apart. People have been told to stay at home as much as possible, the BBC reports.
Those who willingly decide to break the quarantine could face three months in jail.
Restrictions apply to all of the Lombardy region, which includes many of Italy’s largest cities and most economically important provinces. According to Turkey’s Anadolou News Agency, along with Lombardy, the quarantine includes the cities of Modena, Parma, Piacenza, Reggio Emilia, Rimini, Pesaro e Urbino, Alessandria, Asti, Novara, Verbano Cusio Ossola, Vercelli, Padova, Treviso and Venice.
The order impacts Lombardy, the region around Milan, as well as vast swathes of Piedmont, Veneto, Emilia Romagna and Marche. Venice is part of the affected zone, while Turin, home to the Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV headquarters, is outside, according to Bloomberg.
PM Giuseppe Conte said sports matches will be held without crowds, and that schools in all quarantined locations will be on break until April 3.
In a tweet retweeted by Conte, WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros congratulated the Italian government for imposing “extraordinary measures”, and specifically praised Italian President Sergio Mattarrella for his boldness in getting the draft decree adopted into law.
Of course, while these measures are undoubtedly bold, they’re coming rather late in the game. Italy has confirmed 233 deaths connected to the outbreak, most of them in Lombardy, but cases and deaths have been confirmed across the country now, including a US Navy serviceman in Naples. 5,061 cases have been confirmed across Italy.
Wow from Italian data 10% of cases admitted to ICU… pic.twitter.com/FSWx2xG8oY
— FxMacro (@fxmacro) March 5, 2020
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In the Vatican, which confirmed its first case the other day, Pope Francis delivered his first live-streamed Sunday prayer to avoid the usual crowds forming. The Pope said he was “close through prayer” with those suffering from the epidemic. The Pope is also just recovering from a relatively serious ‘indisposition’ that officials said was definitely not the coronavirus (the pontiff was reportedly tested).
Over in the US, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the head of NIAID and the CDC’s point man on the outbreak, delivered some appropriately severe comments in a statement to the press delivered early Sunday.
The celebrated epidemiologist warned the public that they should avoid public gatherings because the virus’s seemingly rapid spread within communities on the West Coast is “not encouraging.”
- FAUCI SAYS SCOPE OF CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK IN UNITED STATES ‘NOT ENCOURAGING’ BECAUSE OF SPREAD WITHIN COMMUNITIES
- NIAID HEAD ANTHONY FAUCI SAYS U.S. NEEDS TO LOOK AT CANCELLING EVENTS WITH LARGE GATHERINGS OF PEOPLE IF COMMUNITY SPREAD OF CORONAVIRUS INCREASES.
The Washington Post reports, citing a tweet from Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-Texas), that the Grand Princess passengers are expected to be quarantined at the Lackland Air Force Base in San Antonio, where evacuees from the Diamond Princess and Wuhan have been quarantined.
Many of us have expressed to the Trump Administration serious concerns with how the Administration has handled the quarantine and the treatment of infected patients. For example, we still do not have the testing kits we need to truly determine community spread. 2.
— Joaquin Castro (@JoaquinCastrotx) March 8, 2020
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I’m told that the Trump Administration has decided to quarantine some passengers from the Grand Princess cruise ship (those who are currently asymptotic) at Lackland AFB in San Antonio. Our city has already helped quarantine 230 people including treatment for 11 infected persons.
— Joaquin Castro (@JoaquinCastrotx) March 8, 2020
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Meanwhile, hours after announcing the District’s first coronavirus case, the DC Department of Health said Sunday that it was investigating whether members of a Georgetown church were exposed to the deadly virus.
In Albany, Gov. Cuomo said that NY and NYC wanted to avoid the quarantines imposed in Italy and China, but he would shut down NYC schools if he really felt it necessary.
- CUOMO: WANTS TO AVOID MASSIVE QUARANTIES USED IN CHINA, ITALY
- CUOMO” `IF WE NEED TO CLOSE SCHOOLS, WE WILL CLOSE SCHOOLS’
- CUOMO SAYS NO REASON NOW TO CLOSE DOWN MASS TRANSIT IN CITY
- NEW YORK GOV ANDREW CUOMO COMMENTS ON FOX NEWS CHANNEL
NY Gov Andrew Cuomo just told Fox News “worse than the virus right now is the fear pandemic” & “the fear is more dangerous than the virus.”
This is a trope ppl repeat that sounds insightful — but is it true? Undue fear is dumb, yes, but the virus is killing people — is the fear?
— JERRY DUNLEAVY (@JerryDunleavy) March 8, 2020
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In a tweet sent early Sunday, President Trump defended the US response to the virus, praised VP Mike Pence (but notably not HHS Secretary Azar, and insisted that the “Fake News” media was deliberately trying to make him look bad.
We have a perfectly coordinated and fine tuned plan at the White House for our attack on CoronaVirus. We moved VERY early to close borders to certain areas, which was a Godsend. V.P. is doing a great job. The Fake News Media is doing everything possible to make us look bad. Sad!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 8, 2020
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We can’t help but wonder: Does this “plan” involve mass Italy- and/or China-style quarantines?
Elsewhere, in the UK, health officials confirmed another batch of cases, bringing the national total between the four kingdoms to 273. Among them, a student at Oxford University, the first case at the school. It was the largest daily jump in cases for the UK yet.
Confirmed coronavirus cases, UK:
March 8: 273 people
March 5: 115 people
March 2: 39 people
February 28: 20 people
February 25: 12 people
February 22: 8 people— Norbert Elekes (@NorbertElekes) March 8, 2020
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As we reported last night, South America recorded its first coronavirus death, a 64-year-old Argentinian man, meanwhile, in Australia, a man in his 80s died, marking the country’s third death from the virus.
In Malaysia, which has been one of the more successful countries at combating the outbreak, officials banned all cruise ships from landing (taking a page out of President Trump’s book).
Of course, even as President Trump said he would prefer to leave the passengers on the Grand Princess offshore indefinitely (he doesn’t need his ‘numbers’ to double, as he said the other day), the US doesn’t have that luxury considering most of them are American citizens.
The Netherlands reports 77 new cases of coronavirus and 2 new deaths, raising total to 265 cases and 3 dead. German Health Minister Jens Spahn advised all events with more than 1,000 participants to be cancelled.
Iran on Sunday reported 49 deaths and more than 700 new cases of the virus, according to health authorities. As the worst outbreak outside China intensifies, the regime has urged citizens to stay home and avoid travel between cities, while many of Iran’s neighbors have closed their borders to Iranian citizens.
According to WaPo, the new cases bring the official death toll in Iran to 194, with a total number of confirmed cases climbing to 6,566 infections.
The new cases bring the official death toll in Iran to 194, with a total of 6,566 infections, according to the Health Ministry.
The outbreak is one of the largest outside China, where it is believed the virus originated.
In New York, as the number of confirmed cases passes 100, an Uber driver living in the Queens neighborhood of Far Rockaway has reportedly been hospitalized with the virus. As one reporter noted.
Lmao my life in a tweet https://t.co/xna4xrmdzN
— Lauren Tara LaCapra (@LaurenLaCapra) March 7, 2020
Tyler Durden
Sun, 03/08/2020 – 23:55 - America 2060 – An Insolvent Nursing Home?
America 2060 – An Insolvent Nursing Home?
Authored by D. Dowd Muska via InsideSources.com,
Has America hit peak despair?
The latest estimate from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention puts life expectancy in 2018 at “78.7 years, an increase of 0.1 year from 2017.” It’s a welcome reversal for a three-years-in-a-row trend of declining longevity. The phenomenon that has come to be called “deaths of despair” – i.e., white, middle-age folks killing themselves with booze and drugs and suicide — may have maxed out.
And if the U.S. Census Bureau’s estimators can be trusted, the downward blip in an otherwise relentless march toward getting older will soon be forgotten.
At 15 pages, “Living Longer: Historical and Projected Life Expectancy in the United States, 1960 to 2060” is light reading. But the fiscal, economic and social consequences of its projections are profound.
By the bureau’s math, when the first Catholic president was elected, “life expectancy for the total population” was 69.7 years. In 2015, the average was 79.4 years. And in 2060, the estimate is “an all-time high of 85.6 years.”
Bad news for our “patriarchy,” gents: While the “gender gap in life expectancy” narrows, females will continue to enjoy a nontrivial edge. Back in 1960, men lived 6.5 years less. A century later, the deficit slips to 3.4 years.
One of the reasons the United States is bound to grow grayer is the rising share of Latinos living here. Due to immigration and a higher birthrate, the “Hispanic health paradox” will boost national longevity.
Citing the work of researchers Alberto Palloni and Elizabeth Arias, “Living Longer” notes that “racial or ethnic misclassification on vital registration data” is a possible explanation for why people of Central and South American ancestry have, given their socioeconomic status, unexpectedly fewer medical problems.
Self-selection (“the propensity for healthier Hispanics to migrate to the United States”) is another. Finally, “social and cultural ties that influence health behaviors” might play a role.
Whatever the cause or causes, the average life expectancy for a Latino born in 2017 is estimated to surpass the comparable figure for whites by just a bit, and be five and a half years longer than the projection for blacks and Native Americans.
Gender, racial and ethnic minutiae aside, the Land of the Free is getting older.
A 2018 calculation by the bureau found that the elderly will “outnumber kids for the first time in U.S. history” by 2034. And that means increased healthcare needs — big time.
“Living Longer” offers the gloomy reminder that old age is “associated with an increased risk of disability, disease and multimorbidity — having two or more chronic health conditions such as heart disease and diabetes.”
As The Wall Street Journal recently noted, Baby Boomers “start reaching their 80s in 2026.” And the Original Snowflake Generation has not given a good account of itself vis-à-vis nutrition and physical activity.
A 2013 analysis published by the American Medical Association’s JAMA Internal Medicine probed the health of Boomers, “relative to the previous generation.” Progress, overall, was nonexistent. Obesity? Hypertension? High cholesterol? Diabetes? Regular exercise? Worse, worse, worse, worse, worse.
Living longer, sicker, is bankrupting the national government. For the vast majority of beneficiaries, federal entitlements give much more than they take.
The Urban Institute’s number-crunching of “the expected present value at age 65 of (Social Security and Medicare) benefits received in retirement and taxes paid over a career for households with different earnings and marriage histories” supplies bracing evidence of why the United States is $23.4 trillion in debt. For example, a “single woman with low earnings ($23,400 in 2018 dollars)” will enjoy a lifetime entitlement windfall of $310,000.
Much of the funding for Social Security and Medicare is delivered via the payroll tax, a hideously regressive levy that redistributes wealth from the working young to the retired old. As Urban’s Howard Gleckman notes, “income tax payments don’t begin to exceed payroll taxes until household incomes reach six figures, and only really dominate for those making $200,000 or more.”
What are “leaders” planning to do to address looming insolvency, and the appalling unfairness of generational predation?
The current occupant of the White House warns that the “socialist Democrats” are “trying to destroy your Social Security,” but “that won’t happen with me,” because “my administration is protecting your Social Security, your Medicare.” His likeliest opponent supports “Medicare for All” — a cockamamie proposal to expand an entitlement with a hospital-insurance “trust fund” that, its trustees say, faces the start of depletion in six years.
Americans will be living longer in 2060. Terrific. But a dubious blessing, if Washington is broke.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 03/08/2020 – 23:15 - Coronavirus – The Catalyst For System Failure?
Coronavirus – The Catalyst For System Failure?
Submitted by Guy Haselmann, Principal at FETI Group
Overview
Today’s global economic system is more intertwined than at any point in history. For the past 30 years in particular, globalization and the Theory of Comparative Advantage have been alive and well. Technological advancements and transportation improvements have truly ‘shrunk the world’, allowing more countries to participate and benefit from international trade.
The globalized world economy has become a vast network of complex supply chains, interconnectedness and co-dependence. The benefits have been wide-spread and done more to lift the human condition, and more people out of poverty, than any development in history. However, this increase in economic complexity has magnified global vulnerabilities, opening up the risk of rapid and large-scale failure and contagion: a period of anti-globalization. COVID-19 is the catalyst that is triggering a supply-side crisis; one that is further exacerbated by a simultaneous demand-side shock.
Consensus View
The consensus view seems to be that the COVID-19 will die out with warmer weather; after all this is what typically happens with the common flu. In terms of markets, most believe that governments and central banks will come to the rescue with proactive stimulus which will be exceptionally good for markets, because the economy is viewed to be on solid footing already. The stimulus will come to be viewed as an over-reaction that merely serves to provide more economic fuel, particularly once the Coronavirus sputters away. This scenario is logical and possible, but not a view that I share.
US Coronavirus Response
The US has a relatively low number of confirmed cases, but it is in direct proportion to the low number people tested. There is a shortage of testing kits and slow distribution to provide more. This is likely intentional. Trump is on Twitter bragging about the low number of positive cases in the United States as being a result of his administration’s actions. There are reports that only a few thousand tests have even been conducted in the US. Even after the US ships millions of test kits the US can only test a few thousand per day.
Regardless, most should be in agreement that in the near term the virus will become more widespread with a deepening impact on normal societal behaviors. Music festivals, business conferences, schools and sporting events have already been impacted, closed or cancelled. In several cases companies have asked not essential staff to work from home. These actions should certainly help limit the spread.
Governments have a vested interest to limit panic, but should not do so by misinformation or limiting confirmed infections by inadequate testing. The Fed has tried to be proactive, but an interest rate drop of 50 basis points is basically ineffective, reactionary, and whiffs of panic.
In thinking about where markets are headed, for this note I am more focused on the supply and demand shocks currently in motion particularly against the backdrop of the state of our economy. An understanding of the path of financial markets in recent years will also be helpful to thinking about where they may go next.
A Globalized World
In a globalized world economy with highly complex lines of production, there are many critical links that tie production to delivery, and ultimately to world trade. Most people take simple things for granted: grocery stores and pharmacy shelves being stocked; money accepted in exchange for goods and services, the train arriving on time, and their mobile phone and internet working.
People notice the immediacy of things, but not the conditionality from which it emerges. People rarely think about, or see, the constraints to critical infrastructure or the factors that provide for social stability.
A global pandemic is good reason to shift one’s thinking to consciously considering them. No one wants to test the legitimacy of the old adage that we are only nine meals from anarchy. The worst case scenario of a pandemic causing a simultaneous supply and demand shock could be so highly disruptive that it is something that every market participant and fiduciary must give thought to.
Certainly, there are groups of individuals who need to go to work to provide services that support critical infrastructures. What happens if not enough of them go to work? What happens if manufacturing plants or parts factories close? What are the demand impacts when people are told not to go anywhere where a large number of people gather? What happens, for instance, if truckers do not receive their normal supplies for delivery, or if they refuse to deliver to towns with a high percentage of confirmed COVID-19 cases? All kinds of spillover effects could happen within a few days: food shortages, hospital supply shortages, garbage piling up, US mail stopping, gas shortages, power grids and sewer system troubles, ATM’s running out of cash etc.
I believe Liebigs’s Law of the Minimum can be used to understand a globalized world with its highly-precise and efficient supply chains. Today’s extreme efficiencies mean that it would take only one failure in the chain to stop or impact production and delivery. On average businesses have around 15-20 days of inventory. Production is not limited to the total level of resources, but rather by the scarcest resource. You can’t build a car without the tires or the rubber used to make them. COVID-19 has already dramatically impacted supply-chains as factories in China and elsewhere have shut.
A Ford F-150, for example, has well over 10,000 parts. Their parts suppliers have, say, 1000 suppliers of their own, who in turn have, say, 100 suppliers. This is a crude calculation, but that is a permutation of 1 billion pathways. Dun & Bradstreet reports that 5 million companies have a tier one or tier-two supplier in the Wuhan region. A shut parts factory in China could easily lead to the closing of a manufacturing plant in another country.
A more precise example comes from a friend of mine who was a U.S. Air Force officer responsible for extracting intelligence from aerial photography. He told me the story of his training from WWII photos from near the end of the War showing many German aircraft sitting idle – and no one could figure out why. After the US invaded Germany, they found out that the planes had everything they needed to be operational except the ball bearings; a direct result of the ball bearing factory in Schweinfurt being bombed.
As fears grow and governments impose restrictions against human gatherings, demand shocks will follow. The result will have a cascading effect across businesses, economies, markets and society. Such disruptions do not proportionately or linearly increase with time, but rather cause spillover effects that accelerate disruptions. A classic contagion.
2008 Financial Crisis vs. COVID-19
The 2008 financial crisis and policy responses should not be compared too precisely to the potential crisis developing from a COVID-19 pandemic. The crises are quite different.
In 2008, interbank lending dried up, partially due to uncertainties around the size of bank’s offbalance sheet SPVs (Special Purpose Vehicles) and the amount of structured product (e.g. CDOs) they held. The Fed and Treasury acted to unclog the plumbing by cutting rates to 0% and by putting in a series of targeted lending and purchasing facilities. These measures prevented severe contagion after Lehman failed, and helped to bail out several firms including AIG and their huge counter-party exposures. While the official response to the 2008 crisis prevented a full market meltdown and potentially a new great depression, it sowed the seeds for making today’s crisis much worse!
A good deal of the risks from 2008 were displaced to sovereigns via enormous deficits and bank guarantees. Basically, the response of 2008’s ‘too much debt’ has been even more debt, as evidenced by massive increases in global indebtedness that is several multiples greater today than 2008 levels.
Simply stated, the actions taken in 2008 cannot fix today’s socio-economic and behavioral disruptions currently stemming from COVID-19. The financial system is in a much more precarious position due indebtedness being far higher, central banks having less fire power and credibility, and asset valuations bubbling near historical extremes. Central bank tools are worn. Interest rates are not only already near rock bottom in most places, but further action may be counterproductive and therefore there may be a loss of faith in more ‘bazooka, whatever-it-takes’ band aids (think ECB).
Equally importantly, China, the epicenter of the COVID-19, is an important cog in global supply chains today. It’s share of global GDP has risen from around 5% in 2008 to 16% today.
True Coordinated Policy Responses Unlikely
There have been several interest rate cuts by central banks with more cuts likely. However, at the bigger governmental level, conflicting perceptions of the crisis and risk-reward frameworks means a lower likelihood of a true global coordinated response. Why? Because varying degrees of desperation could press local demands forward and give rise to “nationalism” and desire to ‘protect our own’. Impulses like these would exacerbate broken supply chains and are antiglobalization at their core!
MMT Revised?
The Fed and other major central banks might attempt to act as the ‘lender of first resort’ and try to recapitalize the world to save it from the mess their own prior actions created (i.e, “everything bubble”). In theory, the Fed has an unlimited balance sheet from which it could guarantee every liability. However, this suggests that the Fed’s backstop is its ability to print infinite amount of money, but at some level it must know that to try to do so would destroy confidence in the value of the fiat USD. Devaluing one’s currency and ‘beggar-thy-neighbor’ policies don’t typically work when an indebted world is all in the same boat. If they did work, it would be at the expense of hyper-inflation.
The Catalyst For a Catastrophic System Failure?
COVID-19 could possibly be the catalyst for a double-whammy supply and demand shock that breaks extreme market valuations and breaks the smooth functioning of the financial system.
Slow response time and misleading early information by governments and their institutions (particularly in China and Iran) have, and will, significantly damage the effectiveness of the policy actors who are attempting to manage the crisis. Distrust of official information can be highly damaging. COVID-19 has the potential to lead to catastrophic system failure. Markets, international trade, economic output, and social stability are all at risk.
Global Indebtedness Impact on Markets
Despite central banks efforts to centrally control prices and market liquidity, banks and lending still play a critical part. System confidence in money and credit is the basis of all economic activity. A slowing economic landscape that is already over-borrowed can easily start to deleverage, quickly triggering a negative feed-back loop. As such expectations take hold, loans retire or are defaulted on, money and credit supply drops further and quicker than goods and services are produced. The COVID-19 could easily be the shock that sets a debt deflation economic collapse in motion.
Raising debt in order to rollover existing debt will no longer becomes an option, so defaults will skyrocket and businesses will close. The result will be asset prices falling and unemployment rising quickly. Money velocity will fall in a reinforcing downward spiral.
The BIS has written extensively about how over-indebtedness damages economic growth. The Fed’s decade of negative real rates, ever-ballooning balance sheet and extraordinary accommodation has been partially to prevent an Irving Fisher style debt deflation cycle. Yet, in trying so drastically to prevent it, the Fed may have provided the dry kindling that made it inevitable. No doubt, the second order effects of Fed’s excessive accommodative policies have been soaring indebtedness, wild market speculation and financial asset bubbles.
According to the IIF, global debt to GDP reached an all-time high of 322% in Q3 2019. Government intervention would increase debt but without addressing corporate insolvency. And, central bank actions have already been riddled with ever declining marginal results, and as mentioned, at some point their actions simply become counter-productive.
High Yield Bonds, aka Junk Bonds
55% of the entire corporate bond market is rated BBB. Many of these companies will be downgraded by at least one notch pushing many of them into junk bond status. (Junk bonds are now nicely referred to as ‘high-yield’, despite really being ‘medium yield’.) The aggregated number of BBB bonds is around $3 trillion or 4x the entire size of the junk bond market.
A downgrade into junk status means that these bonds automatically get kicked out of all investment grade indexes. In addition, some investors are constrained by regulation from investing in non-investment grade bonds; the combination means forced selling will occur. There is not enough liquidity or balance sheet room to find buyers at economic prices.
Historically junk spreads trade on average 4%-6% above treasury yields, but during a crisis with rising defaults and inadequate liquidity, these spreads will soar to much high spread levels. The fact that we have just finished a decade of extreme yield seeking will increase the severity.
Markets
Financial markets are following an extraordinary decade of exceptionally high returns. I’ve written extensively about how global central banks have been borrowing from future returns by making today’s return’s better. The Fed has encouraged corporations to borrow cheaply to buy back their own shares. Corporate executives are immune to high valuations and incentivized to buy back shares, because decreasing the number of shares increases earnings per share (EPS), which in turn inflates performance related pay. However, it should be noted that this financial engineering also weakens the corporate balance sheets by increasing debt levels.
The Fed has basically fueled speculation and moral hazard by keeping rates ‘too low’ and showing that it will act during any signs of market trouble. The ‘Fed Put’ is real and alive. Thus, market have had a fear of missing out (FOMO). The result is valuations that have gotten to more and more extreme levels – near all-time high valuations. All bubbles pop, the key is knowing the timing.
In recent years, while I have stated that perpetual bubble blowing is unsustainable, I thought the only thing that might derail the equity bull market was when real rates went positive and the Fed balance sheet began to shrink; OR, a recession. I will now add a pandemic to the list. Thus, the timing is now.
Financial assets represent the expected claim on future economic growth with valuations determined by the discounted value of those future cash flows. A drop in interest rates (the discount rate) makes the future cash flow worth more in today’s terms. Yet, a drop in interest rates does not change the cash flow itself. Economic growth is necessary for earnings and positive cash flows. Growth is going to be severely impacted from the COVID-19 shock. I do not believe that it will merely cause ‘delayed demand’ as some suggest. In others words, that a drop in Q2 will be offset by equal increases in Q3.
Equities: I expect COVID-19 to cause a drop in US equity markets of at least 40%. Valuations are way too high. The “E” will fall faster than the “P”, and dip buyers will be incentivized to wait and not try to ‘catch a falling knife” with so much uncertainty around COVID-19 and the upcoming US election.
Bonds: In 2014, I predicted that the long bond would trade with a 1% handle. I argued that Treasuries demand would surpass high levels of supply due to three main factors: 1) the Fed was hoarding so many; 2) Treasuries were the high-yielder relative to other developed world sovereigns so foreign demand would remain high; and 3) the PBGC rule changes for private pensions and its strong incentives for LDI investing would increase long end demand.
Recently, I have been asked a lot about my opinion of Treasuries. I’ve stated that Treasuries will continue to fall to new record low yields initially – in the short term – but I have turned negative in the medium term.
[Let me start by saying that I believe the Fed will be forced to cut rates toward 0% but will refrain from ever moving official nominal yields into negative territory, due to our highly developed and important money market sector. And, I don’t believe the Fed should cut or go to 0% because I believe rates below a certain level, say around 2%, are counter-productive. Nonetheless, they will cut from fear of looking as if it is not doing enough. I also believe the flight to Treasuries will continue in the near term dropping long rates at least another 25 bps.]
However, I believe the disruption in global supply chains and nationalistic impulses will eventually cause a type of stagflation. Forget the Philips Curve which the Fed still references, it was debunked in the 1970’s. Globalization has reached its peak and a period of anti-globalization will manifest, reversing some of the benefits such as efficient low cost production. A supply chain disruption that causes a shift to the second lowest cost producer can have a dramatic impact on final prices. These pressures along with growing deficits will place greater pressure on Treasuries particularly as nominal Treasury yields approach the zero lower bound.
Conclusion
Some experts believe the Coronavirus will manifest as the worst to strike since the 1918 Spanish flu. The Coronavirus is highly disturbing due to its high infectiousness and level of severity. As it worsens, global media outlets will show more depressing stories about closings of schools, factories, and events. They will show stories about production failures, panicked markets, government feebleness, food insecurity, and factors that spread and amplify fear and uncertainty.
Financial markets are unlikely able to hold such high valuations. Why? With a current all-time low unemployment rate of 3.5%, unemployment only has one way to go – up. Debt to income levels are already unsustainably high and income levels will drop as production is ratcheted lower. Paying down debt will become a challenge and credit will become scarcer. Inflation will rise even in the face of system collapse. The frailties of system dependencies will be exposed. Behaviors will change as socio-economic fragmentation occurs. Consumer confidence will materially drop leading to further economic contraction.
A financial system and supply chain cross-contagion could easily enter a re-enforcing negative feedback loop that has to recalibrate to a new stable state after collapse. Once production lines and trade are impacted for a period of time, they are not easily turned back on. It is not like turning on a light switch.
Final Thought
My intent with this note is not invoke fear, but rather to assess the difference between best-case (consensus) and worst-case scenarios. Fringe warnings like the ones outlined above are never popular. People often defer to authority opinion when consensus views are challenged. Unfortunately, governments are incentivized to maintain order with rosy announcements while experts today are still trying to understand what they are even dealing with.
Humans typically seek group affirmation. Market participants believe being wrong in a consensus is safer than being right with the risk of facing social shaming. After the 2008 crisis, most funds that lost near the same as the S&P 500 of 39%, often said, “no one saw this coming”. This is simply not true, but did allow most to keep from losing their jobs.
I have written this because I believe markets have learned little about risk management since the financial crisis. On the contrary, the “Fed put” has made many complacent and unworried about downside risk. Too many have worried so much about seeking return and hunting for yield that they have forgotten that what matters is return per unit of risk. The upside potential versus downside risk of today’s market with a potential pandemic looming is highly skewed to the downside. Investors should immediately shift from FOMO to actions that help preserve capital until uncertainties materially dissipate.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 03/08/2020 – 22:51 - Market Massacre: Oil Crashes 30%, VIX Explodes As S&P Craters Limit Down
Market Massacre: Oil Crashes 30%, VIX Explodes As S&P Craters Limit Down
Update (2020ET): And there it is: for the first time since the financial crisis, the emini S&P future has hit the limit down band of -5%, something it failed to do even during the May 2010 flash crash.
This means that no more trade are allowed below the limit down level until the market opens at 9:30 am ET (assuming it opens of course). Trades higher are still permitted, naturally, however that will probably not be a great comfort to all those who are rushing to liquidate with reckless abandon. But fear not: with the S&P now down more than 17% from its all-time highs just two weeks earlier, and just shy of a bear market, those who want to sell will have ample opportunity to do so in the days ahead.
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Following what may have been the most drama-filled weekend since “Lehman Sunday”, in which we saw not only another major spike in covid cases around Europe and the US, but also the total collapse of OPEC after Saudi Arabia unilaterally decided to flood the market with deeply discounted oil in a desperate attempt to crush the competition (yet which may backfire and soon lead to riots in Riyadh), markets are reacting appropriately and just like during Lehman Sunday, everything is crashing:
- S&P emini futures are down more than 4% in early trading, plunging as low as 2,845 and fast approaching their limit down price of 2,819 as investors around the world puke risk in an unprecedented fashion.
- Dow futures are down more than 1,000 points unwinding all of Friday’s remarkable late-day rally and then some…
- VIX futures are up 16%, so one can only imagine where spot will be soon.
- With everyone rushing into safety, rates are soaring and the Ultra bond future is already up a gargantuan 7 to 232-16 in a squeeze that will surely lead to the failure of more than one macro fund still short the long-end, while the 10Y yield is on pace to hit a record all time low of 0.50%, one which screams recession.
- Naturally, the oil complex is imploding, with WTI down 27% to $30…
- … while Brent has dropped as much as 31%, to just $33 in early Sunday trading in what Bloomberg dubbed “one of the most dramatic bouts of selling ever”…
… and indeed, today’s move is the biggest one-day drop in Brent on record.
… in line with Goldman’s shocking price target cut, which now expected Brent dropping into the $20s.
FX, as discussed earlier, is in freefall, with carry trades getting unwound, while commodity pairs are getting anihilated:
- NORWEGIAN KRONE FALLS TO LOWEST SINCE AT LEAST 1985 VS DOLLAR
- FALLS EXTEND IN CANADIAN DOLLAR, NORWEGIAN KRONE, MEXICAN PESO
Finally, gold, also known to certain WSJ “experts” as a pet rock, it just spiked above $1,700 for the first time since 2012.
What happens now? Well, earlier today Morgan Stanley said that to stabilize markets, the Fed would need to announce not only a rate cut but also resume official QE…
We believe equity markets will struggle until policy-makers get back ahead of the curve with more interest rate cuts and an extension of the current balance sheet expansion and/or an official quantitative easing program – something we think is likely coming
… and with spot VIX likely set to trip 60 or more, the Fed will need to do something or risk another Great Depression, although how sending nominal bond yields into negative territory across the board will help markets remains to be seen. Maybe the Fed’s time has finally run out?
Or maybe Trump – who provoked the market gods one too many times with his relentless stock market boasts as stocks hit artificial high after artificial high – actually has something up his sleeve, because moments after futures opened, he tweeted a rather cryptic “nothing can stop what’s coming.”
Who knows what this means, but it sounds good to me! https://t.co/rQVA4ER0PV
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 8, 2020
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We’ll see about that: One thing is certain: markets and traders will be closely watching and waiting everything that is coming, after more than a decade of Fed-inspired complacency, as price discovery finally returns with a bang.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 03/08/2020 – 22:40 - New York Power Plant Mines $50,000 Of Bitcoin A Day
New York Power Plant Mines $50,000 Of Bitcoin A Day
Authored by Adrian Zmudzinski via CoinTelegraph.com,
A New York power plant turns to Bitcoin mining in a successful bid to increase profitability.
Bloomberg reported on Mar. 5 that a power plant in New York’s Finger Lakes region now mines about $50,000 of Bitcoin (BTC) each day using the electricity it produces.
image courtesy of cointelegraph
Atlas Holding, the private equity company that owns the facility, installed 7,000 crypto mining machines at the Greenidge Generation’s 65,000-square-foot power plant in Dresden, New York.
The firm pointed out that since it produces the power consumed by the machines on its own, the mining operation is extremely low cost.
An extremely profitable operation
Cryptocurrency mining is extremely energy-intensive. Mining facilities tend to concentrate where electricity prices are the lowest. In this case, the power cost is equivalent to production costs.
Atlas Holding’s mining operation consumes about 15 megawatts of the 115 megawatts of the power plant’s total capacity. In the past, the Dresden power plant used to operate only when there was higher-than-usual energy demand during summer and winter, but now it operates the whole year.
Bitcoin block reward halving is “favorable”
The cryptocurrency community is afraid that Bitcoin mining will become unprofitable for most miners after the block reward will be cut in half in about little over two months. Dave Perrill, the CEO of colocation service for crypto miners, recently told Cointelegraph that the profitability of all but the most efficient mining operations will be greatly challenged after the halving takes place.
Still, the profitability of Atlas Holding’s mining operation is high enough to be safe after the block reward cut. Greenidge’s chief financial officer Tim Rainey said that he expects the operation will stay profitable after Bitcoin’s halving:
“We are in a favorable market position regardless of how the halving materializes. […] Due to our unique position as a co-generation facility, we are able to make money in down markets so that we’re available to catch the upside of volatile price swings.”
Tyler Durden
Sun, 03/08/2020 – 22:15 - "The Ground Is Rumbling" – 'Age Of Chaos' Earthquake Imminent
“The Ground Is Rumbling” – ‘Age Of Chaos’ Earthquake Imminent
Authored by Robert Gore via StraightLineLogic.com,
You’ll be on your own during the Age of Chaos.
Once upon a time there was a village right next to a volcano. The villagers spent much of their time watching the volcano, which perpetually sputtered, smoked, and fumed. When they first awakened, they’d look up to it. At night they’d watch its lava glow against the dark sky. A special class of villagers instructed them on how to interpret the volcano and how they must live their lives to propitiate it.
Much of what the village produced was gathered by the special class, an offering tax that was supposedly left in a secret spot at the foot of the volcano (somehow the special class always lived better than everyone else). Unusually intense rumblings of the volcano terrified the villagers. The special class would tell them what village security demanded – usually higher offering taxes and more power for the special class – to prevent an eruption.
One day there was an earthquake. A fissure opened and swallowed the entire village and its special class. The volcano never erupted.
Turn on the news and chances are the story concerns the special class. History books are mostly chronicles of the special class—their wars, machinations, depredations, follies, all-too-rare wisdom, monuments to themselves, and the invasions and revolutions that occasionally upend them. It goes far beyond propaganda or brainwashing, it is simply an ingrained fixation, accepted by virtually everyone, that attention must always be on the special class and its volcano—government.
We look up to the special class and their governments and ignore that which will render them irrelevant details—the tectonic shifts below. They perpetuate the illusion of control and many of the subjugated want to believe, but the illusion has always given way to failure and irrelevancy and always will.
A society can be likened to an organism. Its members are individual cells. Organisms survive not because one group of cells in the brain directs the rest. Rather, there is constant interaction and communications among cells, much of which bypasses the brain. This optimizes the odds of the organism’s survival. You put your hand on a hot stove, information is communicated from your skin and its nerves to the peripheral nervous system, not the brain, and the message almost instantly comes back: take your hand off the stove. If cells could only respond to directives from the relatively slow brain, the organism would die within minutes. Similarly, the illusion that huge masses of people can be controlled by a small group from the top only guarantees the eventual end of that small group’s control (the historical failure rate of governments is 100 percent) and perhaps the entire society (yes, entire societies do fail).
There is no place where the illusion is stronger than China. Its citizens are encouraged, exhorted, prodded, monitored, coerced, incarcerated, and occasionally executed by the government. Apparently most of them approve of this state of affairs. However, states are neither omniscient nor omnipotent just because the rulers say and the ruled believe they are. Divorced from reality, this misconception can only redound to the detriment of both rulers and ruled.
Perhaps to prove that God has a sense of humor, albeit occasionally a black one, a virulent and deadly virus has effloresced in the heart of this supposedly controlled land and other than support the scientific response, the Chinese government hasn’t been able to do a damn thing about it. It’s origins are unclear, but the virus has escaped China and only time will tell how far it spreads and how many people it sickens or kills. You can read both apocalyptic and nothing-to-fear scenarios on the Internet and SLL has posted both.
The CoVid-19 coronavirus ushers in the new decade and beyond: large, ostensibly wealthy and powerful governments, defeated by aggregations of comparatively minuscule units that collectively work tectonic shifts. Another virus has broken out in China that’s received nowhere near the coverage of the coronavirus. A viral epidemic of souring debt threatens to overwhelm the Chinese financial system and spread beyond China’s borders.
Tacitly recognizing that it can’t stop this epidemic, only administer triage and palliative measures, the Chinese government no longer backstops all significant debt via financial and accounting hocus-pocus. One yuan is a slip of paper or a computer entry, trillions of them due and payable have overwhelmed the system. Companies and individuals are defaulting and going bankrupt; creditors are taking losses. It’s not supposed to happen in this harmonious and just showcase of socialism with capitalist characteristics (Or is it capitalism with socialist characteristics?) but there you have it.
The CoVid-19 and debt viruses reinforce each other in unhealthy ways, as China shuts down production to quarantine its citizens. The all-knowing, all-powerful government is left with a damned if it does, damned if it doesn’t choice: prematurely restart its economy and fuel the epidemic or quarantine everyone and watch the economy and financial markets tank. Bureaucrats and politicians propose, entropy disposes. The more you try to control, the less you end up controlling. There’s a certain justice to it.
In modern governance, there is no more minuscule unit than the individual, so minuscule that it’s completely ignored. Propaganda pays homage to democracy—aggregated individuals—but democracy is mob rule, the wolves deciding which sheep are today’s lunch. The trick has always been to give the sheep the illusion of choice while they’re fleeced and herded to the slaughterhouse.
Even that illusion is breaking down as individuals keep making unapproved choices, although they are still mostly within the noxious confines of mainstream politics. Trump wasn’t deposed. Brexit is happening. The Yellow Vests continue their protests. Matteo Salvini is the most popular man in Italy. Angela Merkel’s reign is fading in Germany. Democratic officialdom is apoplectic at the possibility that Bernie Sanders might win the nomination, coalescing around a corrupt child groper who appears to be suffering from dementia.
Sanders is an avowed proponent of socialist control just as the Age of Control gives way to the Age of Chaos. His supporters, mostly detached from the humdrum details of their own survival, would be in for a rude awakening should he be elected—they can actually “control” very little. They may well be confronted with an uncontrollable guerrilla insurrection from those slated to provide for their survival.
No institution is more wedded to control than the military, but guerrilla insurrection against imperial empires and would-be conquerors is in a long bull market that started just after World War II and shows no signs of topping. Indeed, it appears to be gathering steam. The US military hasn’t won a meaningful war since World War II. It’s a sign of the corruption and evil of our time that perpetual chaos and devastation have become the ends of war, for the nefarious power and profit it confers on those who wage it. They labor under the oxymoronic delusion of controlled chaos.
“Uncontrolled” chaos induces panic, nowhere more so than among the controllers. That panic is palpable, and has been since SLL posted “Desperation” a month before Trump was inaugurated. They cling to the belief, shared by some in the alternative media, that if they can just control what’s called the narrative, they’ll be able to control events at home and abroad.
The controllers have co-opted the mainstream media, academia, think tanks, Wall Street and big business, Hollywood, and professional sports. Respect for all these institutions has tanked. Millions of people have simply tuned the controllers and their acolytes out. Viewership of the emblematic Academy Awards hit a recent low in the US this year, 23.6 million, which means that over 300 million didn’t watch Hollywood’s self-congratulatory bromides and hectoring lectures. Viewership of any one network’s nightly news rarely reaches 10 million, and daily readership of the big mainstream press organs, both print and internet, is rarely above 5 million. How do you control a narrative if nobody’s paying attention to it?
The narrative is one thing, reality another. Russiagate was a narrative that failed, and so too was Ukrainegate (the number of American people that took either “scandal” seriously never got much above 1 percent). The Chinese government controls narratives, but Chinese people are getting sick and Chinese companies are going broke. “Don’t fight the Fed, the Fed has your back” was the narrative right up until the stock market plunged just after making all-time highs. Seems that short of closing markets, nobody can control millions of shareholders screaming “Get me out!”
The special class has never been able to wholly suppress individual conscience. In every age there are those who insist on telling the truth, regardless of the risks. They’re often signing their own death warrants, but they tell the truth. The honor roll for our age includes Katherine Gün (I recommend Official Secrets, now available on download), Chelsea Manning, Edward Snowden, Julian Assange, and Craig Murray, who has reported on Assange’s kangaroo extradition proceeding and told the truth for those who care to learn it (see craigmurray.org.uk. As the special class sinks further and further into its own morass of lies, truth tellers and the truth itself will loom ever larger as a threat.
The ground is rumbling but it is a mere harbinger of the full-blown Age of Chaos earthquake. The special class clings to narrative management and rule by fraud and force, dreaming its dreams of ruling the entire globe. Murder is the ultimate control—corpses offer no resistance—and they’re quite willing to destroy the world to rule it. Humanity’s last, best hope is that the earthquake hits full force and the Age of Chaos arrives before the special class can fully implement its homicidal designs.
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You can keep your eyes fixed on the special class and their volcano. You can hope that quarantines, travel bans, closing public venues, face masks and disinfectants will protect you from the Covid-19 coronavirus. You can pray that central bank fiat debt, bailouts, and government economic management will save financial markets and the economy. You can believe that all this talk of rising discontent, secession, and insurrection is just talk and nothing will come of it. You can close your eyes, plug your ears, and try to inoculate yourself against truth and reality, all the while screaming for somebody to do something.
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Or you can prepare for the Age of Chaos. Your fate means less than nothing to the special class and its interests are antithetical to yours. It would rather kill than save you—you and yours are on your own. Accept that reality and you have a chance. It’s not quite as daunting as it might seem—there are many people out there of similar mind. If the special class doesn’t kill us all, the Age of Chaos may ultimately offer an opportunity —for those who want to do so and understand what’s required—to live in freedom, peace, and prosperity.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 03/08/2020 – 21:45 -
- A Very Deflationary Outcome Has Begun: Blame The Fed
A Very Deflationary Outcome Has Begun: Blame The Fed
Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,
The Fed blew three economic bubbles in succession. A deflationary bust has started.
Flashback January 6, 2020
Ben Bernanke Just Won’t Stop Making a Fool Out of Himself
Former Chairman Bernanke says Fed Has Many Tools to Deter Recession.
Dear Mr. Bernanke
Please do yourself a favor and stop making a fool out of yourself.
For starters, let me point out it was indeed impossible to unwind the Fed’s balance sheet. How far did you get? And what is the Fed doing now?
Secondly, you would not know inflation if if jumped up and spit you in the eye. You and your group-think buddies never consider asset bubbles as inflation.
Economic Challenge to Keynesians
Of all the widely believed but patently false economic beliefs is the absurd notion that falling consumer prices are bad for the economy and something must be done about them.
My Challenge to Keynesians “Prove Rising Prices Provide an Overall Economic Benefit” has gone unanswered.
BIS Deflation Study
The BIS did a historical study and found routine deflation was not any problem at all.
“Deflation may actually boost output. Lower prices increase real incomes and wealth. And they may also make export goods more competitive,” stated the BIS study.
Deflationary Outcome
The existing bubbles ensure another deflationary outcome.
So prepare for another round of debt deflation, possibly accompanied by a lower CPI especially if one accurately includes home prices instead of rents in the CPI calculation.
Central banks’ seriously misguided attempts to defeat routine consumer price deflation is what fuels the destructive asset bubbles that eventually collapse
For a discussion of the BIS study, please see Historical Perspective on CPI Deflations: How Damaging are They?
Supply Shock and a Demand Shock Coming Up
A Supply Shock and a Demand Shock are Coming Up.
Worth Repeating
Well – Not Me
I have been calling for lower and lower yieldsPeople do not understand debt deflation https://t.co/lzrOAq3BPl
— Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) February 27, 2020
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Deflation is not really about prices. It’s about the value of debt on the books of banks that cannot be paid back by zombie corporations and individuals.
That is what the Fed fears. It takes lower and lower yields to prevent a debt crash. But it is entirely counterproductive and it does not help the consumer, only the asset holders. Fed (global central bank) policy is to blame.
These are the important point all the inflationistas miss.
Fed Can Blame Itself
Another Half-Point Fed Cut Priced In@dlacalle_IA @biancoresearch @RobinBrooksIIF
The Fed fears deflation, correctly this time
Curiously, the Fed brought this upon themselves, fighting inflation when they should have been worried about asset bubbles.https://t.co/NbtN0OIVnJ
— Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) March 5, 2020
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I am not blaming the Fed for the coronavirus and these shocks.
However, I am blaming the Fed for its erroneous inflationary tactics that blew three of the biggest economic bubble in succession: 2000, 2007, 2020.
Bubbles are inherently deflationary.
It’s asset asset bubble deflation that is damaging, not routine price deflation.
When asset bubbles burst, debt deflation results.
Here we go again.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 03/08/2020 – 21:15 - Elon Musk Defends "Dumb" Coronavirus Tweet With Inane, Pompous Sounding Non-Sequiturial Word Salad
Elon Musk Defends “Dumb” Coronavirus Tweet With Inane, Pompous Sounding Non-Sequiturial Word Salad
Just hours after Tesla CEO Elon Musk weighed in with one of his biggest brain farts of the century – calling the coronavirus panic “dumb”, he again took to Twitter at about 1AM his local time Sunday morning to double down on his statement and defend his reasoning using a word salad of half-assed smart-sounding terms that amounted to one giant non-sequitur.
Asked by another Twitter user what his reasoning was for calling the panic “dumb”, Musk responded by Tweeting:
“Virality of C19 is overstated due to conflating diagnosis date with contraction date & over-extrapolating exponential growth, which is never what happens in reality. Keep extrapolating & virus will exceed mass of known universe!”
Nevermind the fact that “virality” isn’t a medical term and is defined in the Oxford Dictionary as “the tendency of an image, video, or piece of information to be circulated rapidly and widely from one Internet user to another,” the point that Musk appears to be trying to make is simply that we don’t have enough raw data on incubation period to model out what the virus is going to do from here.
But we guess that saying something simple wouldn’t work for Musk for two reasons:
- It doesn’t sound smart enough, there aren’t enough big words, and Musk appears to be on a quest to make sure everyone knows he got an “A” on all of his vocabulary tests while in primary school.
- If that’s actually his point, it could be argued from both sides of the camp in debating whether or not panic is warranted regarding the virus (i.e. not enough data could also mean things are worse than they appear).
Musk then continued to opine, referring to the coronavirus as a “cold”:
“Fatality rate also greatly overstated. Because there are so few test kits, those who die with respiratory symptoms are tested for C19, but those with minor symptoms are usually not. Prevalence of coronaviruses & other colds in general population is very high!”
Which, of course, medical experts in Medical News Today recently debunked. In their piece about common myths regarding the coronavirus, one “conspiracy” they explored and debunked was that “SARS-CoV-2 is just a mutated form of the common cold”.
Musk also assumes, again due to lack of data, that fatality rates will revert to a lower mean as testing becomes more ubiquitous. While this may be true, the lack of data again could go both ways, and isn’t necessarily a rock solid point to argue so early on in the data gathering process.
Social media seemed to understand this and, like days ago, proceeded to rail Musk for his pompous diatribe:
Virality isn’t a freaking word.
— James Christoph (@JamesCh47990762) March 8, 2020
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Hey shithead – the word “virality” is unrelated to viruses – it is a social media term. Also, STFU. https://t.co/4w9v8ICSit
— Keubiko (@Keubiko) March 8, 2020
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Dr Elon is on a bender and knows all.
— james blazen (@blazen_james) March 8, 2020
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The sums of the square of the sides equals the square of the hypotenuse! Obviously bro.90dees grees. Natch. Contraction. Exfoliation. Regurgitation. Mastication.! Conflates that bro.
— Sari Not Sari GigaCharlatan Musk for Prison (@xenomorpher1) March 8, 2020
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Still smoking weed I see. I really wish there was a dislike option on Twitter
— Rusty (@Rusty787) March 8, 2020
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Keep digging yourself a hole. If this wasn’t so serious it would be funny.
— Dennis Denuto (@DennisDenuto4) March 8, 2020
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As we noted hours ago, Musk’s tweeterpretation of events stands at odds with people who actually know what they’re talking about, despite garnering millions of likes.
Actual mathematician Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who wrote the 2008 book “The Black Swan” that foreshadowed the global financial crisis, spoke out about Musk’s original Tweet on Sunday.
“If the word ‘panic’ means ‘exaggerated’ reaction, could be so at the individual level but NOT at the collective one. … We have survived for zillion years thanks to ‘irrational’ ‘panics,’” Taleb tweeted in response to Musk.
Taleb said that “to act rational during a viral outbreak that has few consequences for the individual could lead to greater overall death. If we fail to panic, the virus becomes a bigger source of risk for society, he argued.
The novel coronavirus has reached pandemic levels, has infected hundreds in Musk’s home state of California, has infected nearly 100,000 people globally and has killed more than 3,400 people. As major Silicon Valley players like Facebook, Microsoft and Amazon all have confirmed at least one employee has tested positive, Musk’s interpretation of the events simply stands at odds with reality. Which, we guess, is what we should be used to with Musk at this point anyway.
Maybe instead of lashing out on Twitter at 1AM to show the world what a genius he is, Musk can find some value in other types of daily affirmations.
Say it with us, Elon. “I’m good enough, I’m smart enough, and doggone it, people like me!”
Tyler Durden
Sun, 03/08/2020 – 20:45 - New York Firefighters Won't Respond To Coronavirus Calls
New York Firefighters Won’t Respond To Coronavirus Calls
The New York City Fire Department (FDNY) won’t dispatch its firefighters to potential coronavirus calls, as the city leaves it in the hands of EMTs and paramedics, according to the New York Post (which bizarrely opens their article with: “They’re not the Bravest when it comes to the coronavirus.”)
The department issued an order Friday temporarily relieving firefighters from responding to calls of the second highest priority for patients with fever, coughing, difficulty breathing or even those who are unconscious.
A fever, cough and trouble breathing are the most common symptoms of the novel coronavirus, officially called COVID-19. –New York Post.
“Effective immediately, the following call types will temporarily not receive a [certified first responder] response,” states paperwork obtained by the New York Daily News.
According to the report, paramedics are shocked at the decision:
“We can’t believe they would put out this order during one of the biggest citywide health crises. The fact that they’re abdicating all of this is just astounding,” said one first responder. “You’re talking about people who call themselves the Bravest.” Alternatively, you’re talking about people whose job it is to fight fires – not contract a hyper-virulent disease that would prevent them from fighting fires… as opposed to an EMT, whose job description includes likely exposure to pathogens.
“They would literally lose the firehouse. If you lose the house, the response times go through the roof,” said one veteran paramedic, while the Post notes that at least 30 Seattle-area firefighters were placed under quarantine after responding to a nursing home where coronavirus erupted.
“It puts everyone at risk. It puts EMS workers at risk, when we don’t have the resources. It puts the lives of New Yorkers at risk if they’re not on scene,” said EMS lieutenant Anthony Almojera, vice president of Local 3621 of the FDNY Uniformed EMS Officers.
“If this thing really takes off — we have the state of emergency now — these kids aren’t going to be able to handle it,” said Almojera, noting that there are a lot of rookies in the EMS ranks.
All FDNY firefighters are certified first responders, and will continue to respond to the highest priority cases such as cardiac arrest or choking, said FDNY spokesman Frank Dwyer.
“Firefighters continue to respond to the highest priority medical calls, whether they are potential COVID-19 calls or not including … cardiac and respiratory arrests, choking, and trauma incidents,” Dwyer said. –New York Post.
City Councilman Joseph Borelli, who also serves as chairman of the fire and emergency management committee, called the restriction “a smart idea,” according to the Post. “It seems like a logical way to reduce the number of people who come in close contact with coronavirus patients,” he added. “Someone complaining of flu-like symptoms doesn’t need an engine company with five firefighters.“
That said, the new order comes amid a “critical shortage” of EMT staff.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 03/08/2020 – 20:25 - 'Let's Go Full Transparency': Trump Jr. Challenges Hunter Biden To A Debate
‘Let’s Go Full Transparency’: Trump Jr. Challenges Hunter Biden To A Debate
Donald Trump Jr. has challenged Hunter Biden to a ‘full transparency’ debate.
Speaking with Axios, Trump Jr. began by comparing Joe Biden’s obviously failing mental faculties to his father – saying that the media would be react much differently if Trump Sr. was making the same gaffes.
“You know, if Donald Trump mixed up Iowa and Ohio – once – the media, and you know where I’m going on this one, right guys?” said Trump Jr. ” The media would be on TV, every tele-psychologist would say, ‘Donald Trump has lost his mind. Donald, he’s in the later stages of dementia and a combination of Alzheimer’s. He’s not fit to run.’ Joe Biden doesn’t know what state he’s in 50% of the time. If Donald Trump did the equivalent, you would not hear anything other than that.”
“How much will his son be part of that… Hunter?” asked Axios’ Jim VandeHei, adding “It’s obviously been a big part.”
“Listen, I think it’s got to be a big part,” responded Don Jr. “I was an international business person before my father got into politics. That’s what we did. I’m not going to say I haven’t benefited from my father’s last name, just like Hunter Biden did. I’d be foolish to say that. But I haven’t benefited from my father’s taxpayer-funded office, okay?”
“Hunter Biden, his father becomes VP, all of a sudden he goes over to the Ukraine,” he continued. “And he’s making $83 grand a month. So, you know, the media likes to do this sort of false equivalence. ‘You you’re doing this, you’re doing that.’ We stopped doing any new international business deals when my father won the presidency. So, you know what would be great? I’ll let you host it. You moderate a debate between Hunter Biden and myself. C’mon. Let’s do it. No, no, seriously. We can go full transparency. We show everything and we can talk about all of the places where I’m supposedly grifting, but Hunter Biden isn’t. I would love to do it.”
Watch:
The MSM loves making a false equivalency between us, so lets settle it:
I challenge Hunter Biden to man up & debate me@JimVandeHei moderates. Hunter releases his tax returns & I release mine. Let’s have an open convo about who really profited from their father’s public office! pic.twitter.com/6N6MObhGhb
— Donald Trump Jr. (@DonaldJTrumpJr) March 8, 2020
Tyler Durden
Sun, 03/08/2020 – 20:05 - Ted Cruz Says He Plans To Work From Home After "Brief Interaction" With Coronavirus Patient
Ted Cruz Says He Plans To Work From Home After “Brief Interaction” With Coronavirus Patient
A couple of days ago, we reported that two AIPAC attendees were among the individuals in Westchester County who were confirmed to be infected with the coronavirus. The news was particularly startling since VP Mike Pence, Secretary of State Pompeo and a handful of other top Republican figures were in attendance.
Initially, it seemed like Pence & Co. were going to brush off the news. But a few minutes ago, Sen. Ted Cruz released a statement saying he will be staying home in Texas this week after possibly coming into contact with one of the infected individuals at the event.
Today I released the following statement: pic.twitter.com/XGXEa4ozcg
— Senator Ted Cruz (@SenTedCruz) March 8, 2020
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Though he has no signs of the virus, because of the amount of interaction he has with his constituence, Cruz has decided to stay home until a full 14 days have passed since the event, which was held 10 days ago.
So, unless symptoms emerge, Cruz should be good to go by the end of the week.
However, the incident is almost guaranteed to become grist for memers, as well as the first of what could be many lawmaker quarantines, as one twitter user pointed out.
Fortunately, those who have had contact with Cruz in the past 10 days don’t have to worry.
I’m recalling a convo I had w/ @marcorubio last week in which he said it was inevitable that a senator/House mbr would either come in contact w/ someone who tested positive for coronavirus or contract it themselves—due to the nature of their jobs (planes, events, handshakes, etc)
— Andrew Desiderio (@AndrewDesiderio) March 8, 2020
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Though hopefully this won’t become as serious a problem as it is in Iran.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 03/08/2020 – 19:45 - Iranian Regime Blames Coronavirus On Antisemetic "Zionist Conspiracy"
Iranian Regime Blames Coronavirus On Antisemetic “Zionist Conspiracy”
As the Iranian regime struggles to maintain its legitimacy following one of the most challenging quarters in its 40-year history, it has added another longstanding enemy of the Iranian people to its list of parties responsible for the coronavirus outbreak that has killed thousands (officially 233) in the country.
That enemy? Israel and the Jews.
According to the Jerusalem Post, Iran’s Press TV, the regime’s English-language propaganda network, has been pushing antisemitic conspiracies about the coronavirus in order to distract from Tehran’s abject mishandling of the outbreak, which has killed at least two lawmakers and several senior government officials.
Somehow, by sheer luck, perhaps, President Rouhani and the Ayatollah have avoided infection despite reports about contacts with sick officials in their government.
Given that these failings are coming just weeks after the regime embarrassed itself in front of the world by shooting down a passenger plane packed with students, it’s perhaps unsurprising that in their desperation, the regime is appealing to the people’s most base impulses.
Over the last several days, Iran has pushed reports claiming that “Zionists” created the coronavirus. As evidence, Press TV cited an article from the same anti-semitic website that once published an article – widely distributed in Iran – about how America’s Jewish population is responsible for the country’s wars in the Middle East.
On March 5, Press TV claimed that “Zionist elements developed deadlier strain of coronavirus against Iran.” Although the report claimed to reference a foreign “academic,” it fits the pattern of Iran using foreign experts to give the regime’s own views a sense of authority. The agenda of Tehran has been three-fold since the coronavirus outbreak began to affect Iran in mid-February. Iran initially denied that there was a virus outbreak in February so that it could increase voter turnout on February 21.
A few weeks back, after several government officials were infected, the Iranian regime latched on to Chinese propaganda ‘conspiracies’ claiming the US invented the virus and unleashed it as a ‘bioweapon’ against its adversaries.
However the IRGC had other ideas. Its leader Hossein Salami began telling people that the virus was “biological warfare” derived from the US. “We are now dealing with a biological war,” he said on March 5. He argued it “may be the product of American biological warfare.” The IRGC’s narrative qquickly became Press TV’s talking point. An article on the homepage on March 8 links to the claim that not only is the US waging “biological warfare” but also cites an article that argues Israel is behind the virus. According to this article, a “former CIA officer” has argued that “the US and Israel are working together.” The same source that Iran’s Press TV relied on for its March 8 article is the same website in the US that once published an article claiming “America’s Jews are driving America’s wars.” That article was tweeted by another former CIA member Valerie Plame in 2017. She is now seeking to run for Congress even though her chances hit a setback on March 7 at a pre-primary convention. Iran’s Press TV relies on the same antisemitic rantings for its articles today about coronavirus.
Unfortunately, these made-up stories are mostly a sign of desperation.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 03/08/2020 – 19:22 - North Korea Fires Unidentified Projectile
North Korea Fires Unidentified Projectile
As if crashing futures and coronavirus panic wasn’t enough for your Sunday, North Korea has launched an unidentified projectile, according to South Korea’s Yonhap news agency.
The South Korean military said early Monday local time that three unidentified projectiles were launched off the East Coast of North Korea. There was no further detail on the trajectory of the projectiles.
North Korea fired 3 projectiles into the East Sea from the town of Sondok in the east, according to the JCS: Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee https://t.co/zDg3V1ZRT7
— Pyongyang Leaks (@PyongyangLeaks) March 8, 2020
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#BREAKING North Korea fires unidentified projectile: Yonhap pic.twitter.com/hr17DGfQ5F
— AFP news agency (@AFP) March 8, 2020
S.Korean Joint Chief of Staff has announced N.Korea has fired unidentified projectile.
— Jaehwan Cho 조재환 (@hohocho) March 8, 2020
Can the asteroid just hit us and get it over with? pic.twitter.com/yF7kjgRpwn
— Capitulation Capital (@RampCapitalLLC) March 8, 2020
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The world is certainly on fire in the last 72 hours:
In the last 72 hours
– Covid 19 continues worldwide spread
– Saudi Arabia declares oil price war
– Kuwait market halted limit down
– China threatens to withhold pharmaceuticals from the US
– Oil crashes 25%
– North Korea fires “at least 1 projectile”— Quoth the Raven (@QTRResearch) March 8, 2020
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Tyler Durden
Sun, 03/08/2020 – 18:46 - EU Chaos: Watch As Turkish Armored Vehicle Pulls Down Border Fence For Migrants
EU Chaos: Watch As Turkish Armored Vehicle Pulls Down Border Fence For Migrants
Submitted by SouthFront
On Friday a video was shared on social media showing that Turkish security forces used an armored vehicle with a rope to pull down the fence at the Greek border and allow migrants to pass.
The vehicle, according to Greek media is one of the “HIZIR/ATES” type vehicles with daytime and nighttime border surveillance vehicles, which Turkey received from May to August 2019, financed by a program – ironically enough – mostly paid for by the EU.
A Turkish armoured vehicle with a rope attached to it was reportedly trying to pull down the Greek border fence this evening #Turkey #Greece pic.twitter.com/2lW3QuFypL
— CNW (@ConflictsW) March 7, 2020
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Furthermore, Turkish special police operations units were shown pointing their high-powered rifles at the Greek border patrol cars.
Another video provided by #Greek authorities where acc to #Greek officials a Turkish army vehicle is trying to tear down the Greek #border fence pic.twitter.com/59JEl4VKWB
— Nektaria Stamouli (@nstamouli) March 7, 2020
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Turkish Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu over the weekend stated that that the migrants who cross to Europe would go above one million, which would cause the fall of European governments and destabilization of their economies.
Meanwhile, Turkey continues with its claims of rescuing migrants in distress.
A total of 60 asylum seekers, most of them children were rescued off Turkey’s Aegean coast, security sources said on Sunday.
Dangerous escalation on #Turkey–#Greece border. :
Turkish special police operation units point their high-powered rifles at #Greek border patrol cars along Evros (Meric) river line. pic.twitter.com/Zvxpr5LLhW
— Abdullah Bozkurt (@abdbozkurt) March 8, 2020
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Turkish Coast Guard teams said in a statement that a group of Afghans in a rubber boat, including 33 children, were rescued while attempting to cross to Greek islands.
It is also accusing Greek soldiers of opening fire on migrants, with a video purportedly showing specifically that.
Shots fired? | #Turkey says #Greek soldier ‘fired’ at migrants
A footage handed out by the Turkey’s govt on Saturday allegedly shows a #Greece‘s soldier firing shots toward a barbed-wire fence at the border. pic.twitter.com/yLWtd8KgmN
— RT (@RT_com) March 7, 2020
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On March 6th, Turkey’s Communications Directorate Fahrettin Altun slammed Greek authorities over the “ill-treatment of refugees.”
In a statement to the CNN International network, Altun responded to claims by Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis that Ankara is “assisting” thousands of migrants on its border to get into Europe.
Refugees who cross to Europe will soon top to a million, European governments will fall, their economies will be destabilized and their stock exchanges will tumble and they can’t do anything about it, says #Turkey‘s Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu. pic.twitter.com/xeUBX8uiwZ
— Abdullah Bozkurt (@abdbozkurt) March 7, 2020
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“We categorically reject Prime Minister Mitsotakis’ allegations and we are deeply concerned about the ill-treatment of, and the use of lethal force against refugees by this country’s law enforcement and border security agents,” Altun said.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 03/08/2020 – 18:01 - "This Is The Most Frightening Disease I've Ever Encountered In My Career" Says Architect Of National Pandemic Strategy
“This Is The Most Frightening Disease I’ve Ever Encountered In My Career” Says Architect Of National Pandemic Strategy
An infectious diseases expert at the forefront of the search for a coronavirus vaccine said on Friday that it was the most “frightening disease“ he’s ever encountered, and that “war is an appropriate analogy” for what the country is facing, as “50 – 70 percent of the global population” may become infected.
Dr. Richard Hatchett, who sat on the White House Homeland Security Council in 2005 – 2006 and was a principal author of the National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza Implementation Plan, and currently heads the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, told the UK’s Channel 4:
“This is the most frightening disease I’ve ever encountered in my career, and that includes Ebola, it includes MERS, it includes SARS. And it’s frightening because of the combination of infectiousness and a lethality that appears to be manyfold higher than flu.”
He feels this way “because of the combination of infectiousness, and a lethality that appears to be many-fold higher than the flu.“
When asked what concerns him the most about coronavirus, Hatchett said:
“I think the most concerning thing about this virus is the combination of infectiousness and the ability to cause severe disease or death. And we have not since 1918, the Spanish Flu, seen a virus that combined those two qualities in the same way. We have seen very lethal viruses. We have seen certainly, Ebola, or Nipah, or any of the other diseases that CEPI, the organisation that I run, works on – but those viruses had high mortality rates – I mean, Ebola’s mortality rate in some settings is greater than 80%. But they don’t have the infectiousness that this does. They don’t have the potential to explode and spread globally.“
Hatchett added “I don’t think it is a crazy analogy to compare this to World War II. The World Health Organisation is using those kinds of terms. They have seen what this virus is capable of doing.”
He then said that coronavirus has the “potential to cause a global pandemic if we’re not already there.”
Turning to how the virus has spread around the world, Hatchett said “Singapore and Hong Kong did not shut themselves down but they have mounted very aggressive responses. Contact tracing is very important. The voluntary quarantine of contacts is very important. The isolation of cases is important. I think there may be a time to close schools.”
Created three years ago to fight emerging diseases that threaten global health, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations is a partnership of governments, industry and charities.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 03/08/2020 – 17:55
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