- Huffington Post Ends Editor's Note Calling Trump "Serial Liar, Rampant Xenophobe, Racist, Misogynist"
For months, every story on the Huffington Post about Trump came with a disclaimer at the end describing him as a “serial liar, rampant xenophobe, racist, misogynist,” among other things. Now, according to Politico, a note sent to HuffPo staff from the organization’s Washington Bureau Chief, Ryan Grim, on Tuesday evening said the disclaimer will no longer be used in an effort create a “clean slate”.
“Editor’s note: Donald Trump regularly incites political violence and is a serial liar, rampant xenophobe, racist, misogynist and birther who has repeatedly pledged to ban all Muslims — 1.6 billion members of an entire religion — from entering the U.S.”
Of course, Huffington Post spokeswoman Sujata Mitra noted that the plan all along was to remove the “Editor’s Note” after the election cycle…of course, because the point was to block a Trump presidency which didn’t really work out that well apparently.
“The thinking is that (assuming he wins) that he’s now president and we’re going to start with a clean slate,” Grim wrote in the memo, obtained by POLITICO. “If he governs in a racist, misogynistic way, we reserve the right to add it back on. This would be giving respect to the office of the presidency which Trump and his backers never did.”
“This note was added to stories about presidential candidate Donald Trump during the election cycle,” Huffington Post spokeswoman Sujata Mitra wrote in a statement. “Now that the election is over, we will no longer be adding the note to future stories, as he is no longer a presidential candidate.”
Seems like Ariana probably should have accepted this board position from PMUSA…turns out her “independence” wasn’t all that “useful” to Hillary after all.
“She is enthusiastic abt the project but asks if she’s more useful to us not being on the Board and, instead, using Huffpo to echo our message without any perceived conflicts. She has a point.”
- Yale Professor Makes Exam Optional Due To Student Shock Over Presidential Election
Students are being triggered across the nation tonight and so one Yale Economics professor has taken a stand to protect the special snowflakes are they wrote him expressing shock over the outcome of the presidential election… by making their exams optional.
h/t @Jon_Victor_
- Meanwhile, At Hillary Clinton's Headquarters: Tragedy
It was supposed to be a night of joy, celebrations and breaking “glass ceilings.” It is now nothing short of tragedy.
despite a palpable buzz in the air at the start of the evening, the crowd grew quiet as the swing states of North Carolina and Florida went to the Republican presidential nominee. Michigan, New Hampshire and Wisconsin all look as though they could swing for Trump, as well. Pardon, president Trump.
“I feel nauseous,” one top campaign official for Clinton told People before slipping behind a black curtain beyond which reporters were barred.
- S&P & Nasdaq Limit-Down, Erase 2016 Gains, Peso Plunges To Record Low As Trump Victory Looks Assured
This chart tells the whole story of the night: Trump – the massive underdog – appears to have pulled off precisely what he promised to do: Brexit times 10, having won virtually every key battleground state including Ohio, North Carolina and moments ago, Florida.
The latest electoral map:
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Futures
- S&P: -5%
- FTSE: -5%
- DAX: -5%
- Nikkei: -6.3%
- Crude: -3.8%
- Peso/USD: -13%
- Dollar Index: -2%
- Gold: +4.3%
- 30-Yr Treasury: +1.2%
Who could have seen this coming?
S&P and Nasdaq are limit down…
Nasdaq has given up 2016 gains…
Nikke Futures are down 1000 points…
USDJPY overnight vol at its highest since Lehman…
10Y yields have plunged most since Brexit…
December rate hike odds have collapsed to 50-50…
S&P 500 Futures are very near limit down…
AP has called Florida for Trump…
US equities are down almost 5% from the close… (S&P -100, Dow -700, Nasdaq -200)
Every market is in turmoil…
These are the key battleground states that Trump won tonight against all odds:
- Florida
- Georgia
- Iowa
- North Carolina
- Ohio
- Utah
And, more shockingly, he appears set to win Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Arizona.
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Update 1046:
Trump is projected to win North Carolina by FOX
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Update 10:32PM
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Update 10:24pm
NBC project Trump winner in Ohio, and sees 168 electoral college votes for Trump, 109 for Clinton
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Update 10:15pm
Total bloodbath in markets – Peso has crashed to record lows above 20/$ and Dow Futures are down over 650 points…
VIX Futures are soaring above 22 and Gold is above $1310…
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Update 10:00 pm
Donald trump is prijected to win Montana, Hillary Clinton is projected to win Virginia.
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Update 9:40pm
Donald Trump is declared winner in Louisiana; Hillary Clinton is projected to win Connecticut.
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Update 9:13pm
Trump declared winner in Texas, Arkansas
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Update: 09.10pm
Clinton is projected to win New York; Trump Wins Dakotas, Kansas, Wyoming
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Update 09:04pm
Bloodbath in markets as Trump leads in Florida and Ohio…
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Update 8:33pm
- REPUBLICANS MAINTAIN CONTROL OF HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES: NBC
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Update 8:04pm
Peso and Stocks are soaring as Clinton leads Florida and takes 68-48 lead in early states.
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Update 7:41pm
And the first votes from Ohio start coming in, and once again, Trump is in the early lead with 1% of the vote counter.
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Update 7:36pm
The fight for Florida is furious, and with 46% of the vote counted, Trump has again regained a small, 25% lead.
Meanwhile, with 2% of the vote in North Carolina, another must win state for Trump, he has an early lead.
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Update 7:32pm
CNN and NBC News have called West Virginia for Trump leaving him leading Hillary by 24 to 3.
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Update 7:30pm
It is all about Florida, where in a close race, Trump and Hillary have been trading the lead, and with 36% of the vote, Hilllary has a 49.2% lead to Trump's 48.0%
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Update 7:04pm
While the early states were heavily republican and thus a given for Trump – where he was just projected winner – moments ago votes have begun comiking in from key battleground states including Florida (29 electoral votes) and Virginia (13). As well as Georgia (16), South Carolina (9) and Vermont (3), which was just called for Hillary.
As of this moment Trump has won 19 electoral votes, while Hillary has 3.
With 12% of the vote in, Trump has a modest lead in Florida, and a bigger lead in Georgia.
Meanwhile, in Virginia, with 3% of the vote counted, Trump has a 57.1% lead over Clinton.
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Update 7:00pm.
And following Trump, commanding lead in the first states, CNN just called Indiana and Kentucky for Donald Trump; while Hillary clinton projected to win Vermont.
While it is still very early in the evening, with only a handful of the early votes counted, the first results are coming in and Trump – at least for now – has the lead in both republican strongholds of Kentucky and Indiana with some 70% of the vote, in line with expectations.
Trump's early lead is thanks to Kentucky and Indiana.
Live feed from Bloomberg:
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- Donald's Trump Victory Odds Rise Above 95%
To get a sense of what is going on with Hillary Clinton’s winning changes, look no further than the following chart courtesy of the NYT, which has seen Hillary’s victory odds plunge from 80% to less than 5%, as Trump’s, which were at 13% just a few hours ago, are now over 95%. Or, as some would say, game over.
And that, ladies and gentlemen, is why you should never listen to forecasters.
- Market Crashes As Traders Suddenly Worried Trump Can Win
After some early shenanigans, the markets are turmoiling as Trump takes an unexpected lead in several battleground states including Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina
The Peso plunged above 19/$, Dow Futures crashed below 18,000 and Gold is testing towards $1300…
This massive puke has erased all the post-Comey gains (or losses in Gold) – Dow down 450 points, Peso crashed 9%!
This is the biggest crash in the Peso since The 1994 Tequila Crisis…
- Major Networks Confirm That Republicans Will Retain Control Of The House
As expected, all the major networks are now projecting that Republicans will maintain control of the House of Representatives. While it’s unclear exactly what the balance of power will ultimately be, it was always fairly unlikely that Democrats would be able to make up their 30-seat deficit. Now, all eyes will turn to the key Senate races around the country where Democrats have a much better chance of taking over the majority.
As The Hill points out, while many House races are still underway several seats have already flipped parties in Florida.
Republican Neal Dunn defeated Democrat Walter Dartland in Florida’s 2nd district. That seat was vacated by retiring Rep. Gwen Graham (D-Fla.). The Florida Panhandle-area seat had become even more favorable to Republicans this year due to redistricting.
In southeastern Florida, Republican Brian Mast prevailed over Democrat Randy Perkins. The seat had been vacated by Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-Fla.), who ran for Senate and lost earlier in the evening to Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.).
Democrats evened out those losses with two gains of their own in Florida.
In district 10, former Orlando police chief Val Demings cruised to victory. Demings is the first woman and first African-American to represent the district. The district had previously been represented by Rep. Daniel Webster (R-Fla.), who decided to run for reelection this year in another district.
Former Florida Gov. Charlie Crist defeated Rep. David Jolly (R-Fla.) in a district that had become more Democratic thanks to redrawn boundaries. Jolly had originally run for Senate but decided to run for reelection after Rubio reversed course on keeping his seat.
With Republicans now confirmed to to maintain control of the House the focus will be on how many seats Democrats are able to pick up overall as it will have a big impact on Paul Ryan’s chances of retaining the Speakership. Per The Hill, Democrats would declare a victory if they’re able to pick up 20 seats or more while Republicans will be deemed the victors if they keep the lost seats below 10.
If Democrats can gain as many as 20 seats, it will be seen as a significant victory. And if Republicans can keep Democratic gains to single digits, it would be seen as a victory for them.
A smaller House GOP majority would make Speaker Paul Ryan’s (R-Wis.) job all the more difficult in the next Congress starting in January 2017.
Meanwhile, as of right now, 158 of the 277 House seats up for grabs have been called with Republicans having a 32 seat advantage.
With that, all eyes turn to the Senate and Clinton vs. Trump which is looking more and more like it will be a long battle.
- Massive Sinkhole Swallows Entire Intersection In Japan
A gigantic sinkhole has opened up in the southwestern Japanese city of Fukuoka, swallowing an entire intersection of a 4-lane highway. While the cause of the sinkhole is still under investigation, crews were working underground nearby to extend a subway tunnel and are thought to have triggered the collapse.
No injuries or casualties were reported though over 100 buildings in the area were cut off the electricity grid. Police have evacuated nearby buildings and closed the roads leading to the pit, which officials are reporting currently measures about 20 meters in diameter.
Street collapses in heart of Fukuoka, Japan, creating a massive sinkhole and cutting off power to parts of the city. https://t.co/JMqfyAyaRV pic.twitter.com/qZdp7xVUJK
— ABC News (@ABC) November 8, 2016
Giant sinkhole opens up in city streets of Fukuoka Japan pic.twitter.com/H1KmDKq8Hz
— Gautam Trivedi (@Gotham3) November 8, 2016
?????????? pic.twitter.com/tq9dmAGsPG
— ???????? (@utintibinbou) November 7, 2016
- Your Complete Guide To Election Day And Night: What To Watch For And When
It’s almost over: the most divisive, theatrical, dramatic and dirty presidential campaign will be in the history books in just a few hours, with more than 130 million Americans expected to cast ballots across 50 states. However, just winning the popular vote will be insufficient: indeed, it may well be that the popular-vote winner does not win the electoral college.
So which states should one be looking at, and how long is the final day’s drama set to continue?
For the benefit of the traders out there, last week we showed a primer from Citigroup explaining when traders can hope to go home on election evening, according to which it was “all about Florida, North Carolina and Ohio.”
As Citi said, for traders hoping to capitalize on volatility next Tuesday as the election results come trickling in, it may all be over by early evening, at least if Trump loses. That is the calculation of Citi’s Steven Englander, who determined that if Trump loses either Florida or North Carolina or Ohio “the math doesn’t work and it tells us that the shift to Trump was not as pronounced as feared.”
Those states close at 7:00 or 7:30 ET. As Citi adds, even if Trump loses by a little in one of these states, it becomes almost impossible for him to win. It would take a tidal wave in a couple of states that look firmly Democrat. Citi helpfully added that “the odds that he loses, say a Florida or North Carolina, but wins a Pennsylvania do not seem high” at which point “vol collapses, MXN rallies and we go home early.”
However, in a hint that tomorrow may be a very long night for traders – recall that Brexit was an all-nighter, which briefly saw ES halted limit down – the just released “no toss up” map from RCP based on the latest polling, shows Trump winning all three of these key states, and suddenly opening up the prospect not only for much more volatility, and yet another all-nighter, but potentially a Trump victory, something the market after today’s furious rally, is certainly not prepared for.
In any event, no matter the fate of these three states, here is a full preview of tomorrow’s election night.
The following chart from Morgan Stanley summarizes what times polls close for any given state as well as the number of electoral votes afforded to each:
As the FT observes, this year’s election is being fought hardest in 10 states: Arizona (11 electoral college votes), Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20) and Virginia (13). Clinton starts with an advantage in the electoral college and can afford to lose traditional battlegrounds such as Florida and Ohio. But if that happens, falling short in states such as Pennsylvania and North Carolina could prove fatal to her presidential ambitions. On the other hand, as noted above, if Trump does not win in Florida and Ohio, his chances of victory will be non-existent. One key could be the size of the turnout of Latino voters in Arizona, Florida and Nevada, which have large Hispanic populations. Another could be whether African-American voters go to the polls at a high rate in North Carolina and Ohio.
What to watch for during the day, courtesy of Bloomberg:
- 12 am – Voting is already over in Dixville Notch, the New Hampshire hamlet that delivered a 5-5 tie in the 2012 race between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. This time, Clinton received four votes, Trump two and Gary Johnson one, with a write-in vote for Mitt Romney, AP reported. Election Day has, finally, arrived.
- 6 am – Polls are open in eight states, including battlegrounds Virginia and New Hampshire, as well as in New York, where Clinton votes at a public school in Chappaqua, Trump at a public school in Manhattan.
- 8 am – VoteCastr, which aims to break Election Day’s “traditional information embargo,” goes live on Slate.com with estimates based on early voting in Florida, Colorado, Nevada and Iowa. Those are four of the eight states, representing 102 electoral votes, where VoteCastr is concentrating its data-crunching. More results, from more states, are made available in rolling fashion throughout the day.
- 2 pm – The VoteCastr/Slate partnership will probably have data from all the battleground states by now, reflecting broad election-day voting patterns.
- 4 pm – Late afternoon is when leaks and rumors about exit polls may begin to spread, as they did in the last three presidential elections. (The actual results of exit polls are supposed to be closely held by the TV networks and the Associated Press until voting closes, state by state.) Trust these early unconfirmed reports at your own peril, as they indicated in 2004 that the next president would be named Kerry and that Romney was on track to carry Florida in 2012.
And after markets close, here is the hour by hour guide to closing polls:
- 6pm EST — The first polls close in Indiana (11), home to Trump running mate Mike Pence, the state’s governor, and Kentucky (8). Both states are heavily Republican and likely to be carried by Mr Trump
- 7pm EST — Polls close in the battleground states of Florida (29) and Virginia (13). As well as Georgia (16), South Carolina (9) and Vermont (3). The counting of ballots across the nation will go on well into Wednesday. You can, however, expect US media outlets to begin calling the races in safe Democratic and Republican states such as Kentucky, Vermont and South Carolina. But do not expect early calls in Florida or Virginia. In 2012, a winner was not declared in Florida until days after the election. A result in Virginia was not declared until after midnight.
- 7:30pm EST — Polls close in two more important states: Ohio (18) and North Carolina (15). They also shut in West Virginia (5), where Trump is heavily favoured. Trump has done a lot of campaigning in Ohio, hoping to capitalise on the appeal of his protectionist trade policies in the rust belt state. In 2012, Mitt Romney had been declared the winner in four of the five states called before 8pm. President Barack Obama had won only Vermont.
- 8pm EST — Things start to heat up. Polls close in the crucial states of Pennsylvania (20) and Michigan (16), and in Alabama (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), the District of Columbia (3), Illinois (20), Kansas (6), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), New Jersey (14), Oklahoma (7), Rhode Island (4) and Tennessee (11). Expect a flurry of declarations in safe Republican and Democratic states. If Mrs Clinton does not take Pennsylvania it will be a big blow — especially because she chose to spend the last night of her campaign in Philadelphia alongside her husband and the Obamas. In 2012 it took almost two hours for Obama to be named the winner in the state. It was the first real battleground to be called. Maine is the first of two states that do not allocate their electoral college votes on a winner-takes-all system. Maine and Nebraska allocate some of their electoral votes by congressional district.
- 9pm EST — The polls close in Colorado (9), Wisconsin (10) and Texas (38). They also shut in Louisiana (8), Minnesota (10), Nebraska (5), New Mexico (5), New York (29), South Dakota (3) and Wyoming (10). Look for early calls for Clinton in the population-heavy states of New York and New Jersey where she is firmly favoured.
- 10pm EST — Polls are closing in western states Arizona (11), Idaho (4), Montana (3), Nevada (6) and Utah (6) as well as the mid-western farm state of Iowa (6). In 2012, this is when Mr Obama began really piling up the victories. Although it has a long tradition of voting Republican in presidential races, Arizona has been seen as more of a battleground this year. Utah is also interesting this year as conservative Mormon Evan McMullin has been polling well in the state and could even win it.
- 11pm EST — The polls close in the biggest electoral prize on the map — solidly Democratic California (55) — as well as Washington state (12), Oregon (7) and North Dakota (3).
- 1am EST — Polls close in Alaska (3) and Hawaii (4).
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Time for the concession speeches?
In 2008 and 2012, John McCain and Mitt Romney each gave nationally televised concession speeches shortly after midnight eastern time.
But what if there is no winner by the end of the night? In the event that neither candidate gets to 270, the Republican-controlled House of Representatives will decide who the next president should be.
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What are the main factors to watch?
With polls showing voters having negative opinions of both major candidates, one of the key factors on election day could be the enthusiasm of their bases. If black, female, Latino and young voters do not turn out in significant numbers, it could represent a blow to the Clinton camp. Likewise, if white working class voters do not go to the polls in significant numbers it would hurt Mr Trump.
Turnout among African-American voters looks likely to be lower than it was in 2008 and 2012. But Trump’s provocative immigration policies mean a growing Hispanic electorate is expected to vote heavily against him.
What other races should I keep an eye on?
Americans will also be voting for 34 of the US Senate’s 100 seats and for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives. Twelve governorships are up for grabs this year. The big question beyond the presidency is what will happen in the Republican-controlled Congress. A good night for Democrats would see them win five seats and regain control of the Senate (four if Mrs Clinton wins as that would mean vice-president Tim Kaine would cast the deciding vote) while also whittling down the Republicans’ 30-seat majority in the 435-seat House. It is extremely unlikely Democrats will regain control of the House.
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Here is Goldman’s own guide to election night:
- Poll closing times and the estimated time each state will be called: we note the time that polls close in each state. For states in multiple time zones, we include the latest poll closing time. We also include a rough estimate of when media outlets will announce a winner of the presidential race in each state, based on the polling margin (close votes take much longer to call).
- Prediction market probabilities: we note the implied probability of a Democratic win in each state for the presidential and Senate contests. Probabilities are taken from Predictit.org as of 2pm ET on Nov. 7.
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Finally, here is an election survival guide from Credit Suisse.
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