- Paul Craig Roberts: "America Is A Gulag"
Submitted by Paul Craig Roberts,
America’s First Black President is a traitor to his race and also to justice.
Obama has permitted the corrupt US Department of Justice (sic), over which he wields authority, to overturn the ruling of a US Federal Court of Appeals that prisoners sentenced illegally to longer terms than the law permits must be released once the legal portion of their sentence is served. The DOJ, devoid of all integrity, compassion, and sense of justice, said that “finality” of conviction was more important than justice.
Indeed, the US Justice (sic) Department’s motto is: “Justice? We don’t need no stinkin’ justice!”
Alec Karakatsanis, a civil rights attorney and co-founder of Equal Justice Under Law, tells the story here: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/18/opinion/president-obamas-department-of-injustice.html?_r=1
The concept of “finality” was an invention of a harebrained Republican conservative academic lionized by the Republican Federalist Society. In years past conservatives believed—indeed, still do—that the criminal justice system coddles criminals by allowing too many appeals against their unlawful convictions. The appeals were granted by judges who thought that the system was supposed to serve justice, but conservatives demonized justice as something that enabled criminals. A succession of Republican presidents turned the US Supreme Court into an organization that only serves the interests of private corporations. Justice is nowhere in the picture.
Appeals Court Judge, James Hill, a member of the court that ruled that prisoners did not have to serve the illegal portion of their sentences, when confronted with the Obama/DOJ deep-sixing of justice had this to say:
“A judicial system that values finality over justice is morally bankrupt.”
Obama’s DOJ says that there are too many black prisoners illegally sentenced to be released without upsetting the crime-fearful white population. According to Obama’s Justice (sic) Department, the fears of brainwashed whites take precedence over justice.
Judge Hill said that the DOJ “calls itself, without a trace of irony, the Department of Justice.”
Judge Hill added: We used to call such systems as people sitting in prison serving sentences that were illegally imposed “gulags.” “Now we call them the United States.”
America is a gulag. We are ruled by a government that is devoid of all morality, all integrity, all compassion, all justice. The government of the United States stands for one thing and one thing only: Evil.
It is just as Chavez told the United Nations in 2006 referring to President George W. Bush’s address to the assembly the day before: “Yesterday, at this very podium, Satan himself stood speaking as if he owned the world. You can still smell the sulfur.”
If you are an American and you cannot smell the sulfur, you are tightly locked down in The Matrix. God help you. There is no Neo to rescue you. And you are too brainwashed and ignorant to be rescued by me.
You are part of the new Captive Nation.
- How Big Are China's Man-Made Military Outposts? The Pentagon Explains
Apparently, someone at the Pentagon thought that between the four-year civil war in Syria, the heightened violence in Turkey, the proxy war in Ukraine, and the threat of a new war in the Korean Peninsula, the geopolitical situation wasn’t unstable enough, because on Thursday the DoD issued a report entitled “Asia Pacific Maritime Security Strategy,” in which a considerable amount of space is spent discussing China’s land reclamation efforts in the Spratlys.
As you might recall, Beijing has embarked on an ambitious effort to build artificial islands atop reefs in the disputed waters of the South China Sea. The US and its regional allies say it’s an illegitimate attempt to redraw maritime boundaries and project military supremacy while China claims it’s simply doing what other countries in the region have been doing for years. The dispute came to a head earlier this year when the PLA essentially threatened to shoot down a US spy plane carrying a CNN crew.
Below, find some interesting and provocative commentary from the Pentagon about the islands along with some telling visuals. Note that Beijing is all but sure to view this as an escalation.
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From Asia Pacific Maritime Security Strategy
One of the most notable recent developments in the South China Sea is China’s expansion of disputed features and artificial island construction in the Spratly Islands, using large-scale land reclamation. Although land reclamation – the dredging of seafloor material for use as landfill – is not a new development in the South China Sea, China’s recent land reclamation campaign significantly outweighs other efforts in size, pace, and nature.
China’s recent efforts involve land reclamation on various types of features within the South China Sea. At least some of these features were not naturally formed areas of land that were above water at high tide and, thus, under international law as reflected in the Law of the Sea Convention, cannot generate any maritime zones (e.g., territorial seas or exclusive economic zones). Artificial islands built on such features could, at most, generate 500-meter safety zones, which must be established in conformity with requirements specified in the Law of the Sea Convention.
Although China’s expedited land reclamation efforts in the Spratlys are occurring ahead of an anticipated ruling by the arbitral tribunal in the Philippines v. China arbitration under the Law of the Sea Convention, they would not be likely to bolster the maritime entitlements those features would enjoy under the Convention. Since Chinese land reclamation efforts began in December 2013, China has reclaimed land at seven of its eight Spratly outposts and, as of June 2015, had reclaimed more than 2,900 acres of land. By comparison, Vietnam has reclaimed a total of approximately 80 acres; Malaysia, 70 acres; the Philippines, 14 acres; and Taiwan, 8 acres. China has now reclaimed 17 times more land in 20 months than the other claimants combined over the past 40 years, accounting for approximately 95 percent of all reclaimed land in the Spratly Islands.
Though other claimants have reclaimed land on disputed features in the South China Sea, China’s latest efforts are substantively different from previous efforts both in scope and effect. The infrastructure China appears to be building would enable it to establish a more robust power projection presence into the South China Sea. Its latest land reclamation and construction will also allow it to berth deeper draft ships at outposts; expand its law enforcement and naval presence farther south into the South China Sea; and potentially operate aircraft – possibly as a divert airstrip for carrier-based aircraft – that could enable China to conduct sustained operations with aircraft carriers in the area.
Ongoing island reclamation activity will also support MLEs’ ability to sustain longer deployments in the South China Sea. Potentially higher-end military upgrades on these features would be a further destabilizing step. By undertaking these actions, China is unilaterally altering the physical status quo in the region, thereby complicating diplomatic initiatives that could lower tensions.
Ndaa a p Maritime Security Strategy 08142015 1300 Finalformat
- The Federal Reserve Is Not Your Friend
Submitted by Rand Paul & Mark Spitznagel via Reason.com,
Imagine that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) was a corporation, with its shares owned by the nation's major pharmaceutical companies. How would you feel about the regulation of medications? Whose interests would this corporation be serving? Or suppose that major oil companies appointed a small committee to periodically announce the price of a barrel of crude in the United States. How would that impact you at the gasoline pump?
Such hypotheticals would strike the majority of Americans as completely absurd, but it's exactly how our banking system operates.
The Federal Reserve is literally owned by the nation's commercial banks, with a rotation of the regional Reserve Bank presidents constituting 5 of the 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the body that sets targets for certain interest rates. The other 7 members of the FOMC are the D.C.-based Board of Governors—which includes the Fed chairperson, currently Janet Yellen—and are nominated by the President. The Fed serves its owners and patrons—the big banks and the federal government, while the rest of Americans get left behind.
The Federal Reserve has the ability to create legal tender through mere bookkeeping operations. By the simple act of buying, for example, $10 million worth of bonds, the Federal Reserve literally creates $10 million worth of money and adds it into the system. The seller's account goes up by $10 million once the Fed's monies are received. Nobody's account gets debited for $10 million. This is a tremendous amount of power for an institution to possess, and yet the Fed shrouds itself in secrecy and is accountable to no one.
In December 2008, Congress summoned then-Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke to provide information concerning the enormous "emergency liquidity" programs that had begun during the financial crisis earlier that fall—all the new acronyms Wall Street analysts would come to know, such as TAF (Term Auction Facility), PDCF (Primary Dealer Credit Facility), and TSLF (Term Securities Lending Facility). Bernanke did not need Congress' permission to conduct those programs, but even worse, he refused to disclose the recipients of the $1.2 trillion in short-term loans that we now know were being administered behind closed doors. This staggering secret loan payouts doesn't even include hundreds of billions in "swaps" to foreign central banks. Bernanke's rationale was that if the Fed announced the names of the big banks being rescued, then depositors and investors would flee, thus defeating the whole purpose of the rescue operations.
Americans then and now were lectured that the trillions in loans and asset purchases were all for their own good and eventual benefit, to resuscitate the credit markets and bolster home values. Yet the truth remains—it is Wall Street that benefits from the Fed at the expense of Main Street. To make things worse, in October 2008—one month after Lehman Brothers collapsed and precipitated the worst of the financial crisis—the Fed began exercising a new policy of paying interest on reserves. The Fed began to subsidize and directly pay the nation's bankers not to make loans to their customers and keep their reserves parked on deposit with the Fed.
Today, Fed officials can give all sorts of technical explanations for that policy—a move that remains in effect today. Yet your average depositor received no such direct subsidy and likely still receives almost no interest on short term deposits.
It's unfortunately in keeping with Fed policies that disproportionately favor wealth—like low interest rates, a policy benefiting those that have the most assets and first access to borrowing, not for people who have little or no capital.
No matter how much the Fed protests to the contrary, it shows little regard for the average Joe or Jane. Consider the types of assets it bought as the Fed's balance sheet exploded from $905 billion in the beginning of September 2008 to $2.2 trillion by the end of the year. (The Fed currently holds some $4.5 trillion in total assets, after the various rounds of "quantitative easing.")
Rather than bailing out struggling homeowners who were underwater, with higher mortgage debt than their homes were worth, the Fed instead loaded up on U.S. Treasuries (its own IOUs) and mortgage-backed securities—the very same "toxic assets" that reflected the horrible judgment of many investment bankers and the ratings agencies that signed off on the shenanigans. It is no coincidence that the federal government was able to run trillion-dollar-plus deficits for four consecutive years with no concern from the financial markets; everyone knows the Fed stands in the wings, willing to "print" new legal tender and sop up Uncle Sam's IOUs (which eventually come due, as we are now seeing in Greece).
When it comes to money, politicians are often seen as the least trustworthy. But in the debate over income and wealth inequality, few people point the finger at the biggest benefactor of the wheeler dealer crony capitalists: the Federal Reserve. The nation's central bank, which regulates all other banks and has the power to create money simply by buying assets, should be under the utmost scrutiny. Yet, perversely, members of Congress have to fight an uphill battle just to audit the Fed. We do not want to politicize monetary policy (as our detractors allege), but rather simply shine a very bright light on this unaccountable and unchecked (and thus entirely un-American) power. By doing this, we may finally be able to rein it in.
- Mal-Asia: Politcal, Currency Crises Converge As Stocks Head For Bear Market
As the great EM unwind continues unabated, we’ve noted that in some hard-hit countries, the terrible trio of falling commodity prices, decelerating Chinese demand, and looming Fed hike has been exacerbated by political turmoil.
In Brazil, for instance, President Dilma Rousseff’s approval rating is at 8% and voters are calling for her impeachment amid allegations of fiscal book cooking and corruption at Petrobras where she was chairwoman for seven years. This comes as the BRL looks set for further weakness and as the country grapples with stagflation and dual deficits.
In Turkey, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has brought the country to the brink of civil war in an effort to nullify a strong showing at the ballot box by the pro-Kurdish HDP. In the process, he’s managed to put the lira under more pressure than it might already be under and indeed, the currency is putting in new lows against the dollar on almost daily basis.
Now, we turn to Malaysia where, as we documented exactly a week ago, the situation is tenuous at best and nearing a veritable meltdown at worst. As a reminder, here’s what happened last Friday:
With some Asian currencies already falling to levels last seen 17 years ago, some analysts fear that an Asian Financial Crisis 2.0 may be just around the corner. That rather dire prediction may have been validated on Friday when Malaysia’s ringgit registered its largest one-day loss in almost two decades. As FT notes, “sentiment towards Malaysia has been damped by a range of factors including sharp falls in global energy prices since the end of June. Malaysia is a major exporter of both oil and natural gas, with crude accounting for almost a third of government revenue.” The central bank meanwhile, “has opted to step back from intervening in the market in response to the falling renminbi, unleashing pent-up downward pressure on the ringgit.” That, apparently, marks a notable change in policy. “The most immediate challenge is the limited scope of Malaysia’s central bank to step in,” WSJ says, adding that “for weeks, it tried to stem the currency’s slide, digging into its foreign-exchange reserves to prop up the ringgit and warning banks from aggressively trading against its currency.”
As you can see from the following, Malaysia’s reserves are plunging in tandem with the ringgit’s collapse:
On Thursday, central bank governor Zeti Akhtar Aziz was out reiterating that Malaysia has no plans to introduce a currency peg. That echoes comments she made last week, and along with a promise from Prime Minister Najib Razak that capital controls are not in the cards, is meant to reassure the market, where some fear the country may resort to the same drastic measures it undertook 17 years ago. Here’s Citi:
The ringgit has traded to the weakest level vs. the US dollar since the 1998 Asian crisis, weakening by 30% even though BNM’s FX reserves have fallen $35bn over the past 12 months. On an effective exchange rate basis too, we estimate that the ringgit is just 1-2% from post-crisis lows. Together with the acceleration of the currency weakness in recent weeks and the unexpected jump in July CPI inflation to 3.3% – which we think is partly on account of the weaker currency – this has led investors to question how much further this move could extend.
The proximate cause of the pressure on the ringgit has been the weakness in energy commodity prices, the strength of the US dollar, relatively weaker FX reserve cover, and growing political uncertainty in Malaysia. The pressure is also magnified by the large participation of foreign investors in local markets. Foreign investors’ holdings of debt were $54bn (government bonds alone accounted for $43.2bn) and of equities were an estimated $98bn (on market-capitalization basis) at end-July. Reports of foreign investors trimming their exposure and of local corporates responding by increasing currency hedges have thus added to market concern about the ringgit.
Investors thus continue to look for a response from Malaysian policymakers. While we admit that heavy-handed measures are not warranted yet, the absence of policy intent even to restore confidence could further feed investors’ fear. Co-ordinated comments by Prime Minister Najib (who is also Finance Minister) and BNM Governor Zeti (highlighting still sufficient reserves, ruling out capital controls or a repeg) may have been such an attempt, although in these comments they did not suggest an intention to act to reverse or limit the pressure on the ringgit.
Malaysia’s reserves stood at $94.5 billion as of August 14 and Zeti was quick to remind reporters that the country had built up its reserves “precisely for reversals.” Reversals like this:
And lest anyone should think that there aren’t political considerations at play in Malaysia just as there are in Brazil and Turkey, note that PM Najib Razak is facing calls for a no-confidence vote amid allegations he embezzled some $700 million from the country’s development fund, charges which, when reported earlier this year by WSJ, caused the ringgit to fall to its lowest level against the dollar in a decade.
“A vote of non-confidence is necessary now because Najib has made BN members of parliament beholden to him by giving them lucrative posts in the government,” former PM Mahathir Mohamad (who once called George Soros a “moron” for helping to trigger the ringgit’s previous collapse) said in a blog post on Thursday. From Reuters:
Najib, under growing pressure over allegations of graft and financial mismanagement at debt-laden state fund 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB), in August sacked his deputy, Muhyiddin Yassin, replaced the country’s attorney general and transferred officers involved in the 1MDB investigation.
Mahathir, Malaysia’s longest-serving prime minister, has become Najib’s fiercest critic and withdrew support for him last year after the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition’s poor showing in 2013 elections.
“A vote of non-confidence is necessary now because Najib has made BN members of Parliament beholden to him by giving them lucrative posts in the Government,” Mahathir said in a post published on his blog late on Thursday.
“Even those who had come to me complaining about Najib’s administration before, upon being given posts in his government, have now changed their stand.”
The 90-year-old, who was once Najib’s patron and remains highly influential in the country, has called for the prime minister to step down over the 1MDB furore.
For his part, Najib says no one should attempt to “hijack his leadership” as the PM post is for Malyasian voters to “give and take away.”
And while that may be true, this will do absolutely nothing to help the country’s already precarious situation and neither will persistently low crude prices, which is why when Citi asks (in the note cited above) “Malaysian ringgit, are we there yet?”, we would have to respond “no, probably not.”
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Bonus: Stocks unhappy, nearing bear market:
Bonus Bonus: In case anyone forgot
- China Tests Most Dangerous Nuclear Weapon of All Time
Submitted by Zachary Zeck via The National Interest,
China conducted a flight test of its new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) this month.
This week, Bill Gertz reported that earlier this month, China conducted the fourth flight test of its DF-41 road-mobile ICBM.
“The DF-41, with a range of between 6,835 miles and 7,456 miles, is viewed by the Pentagon as Beijing’s most potent nuclear missile and one of several new long-range missiles in development or being deployed,” Gertz reports.
He goes on to note that this is the fourth time in the past three years that China has tested the DF-41, indicating that the missile is nearing deployment. Notably, according to Gertz, in the latest test China shot two independently targetable warheads from the DF-41, further confirming that the DF-41 will hold multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRV).
As I’ve noted before, China’s acquisition of a MIRVed capability is one of the most dangerous nuclear weapons developments that no one is talking about.
MIRVed missiles carry payloads of several nuclear warheads each capable of being directed at a different set of targets. They are considered extremely destabilizing to the strategic balance primarily because they place a premium on striking first and create a “use em or lose em” nuclear mentality.
Along with being less vulnerable to anti-ballistic missile systems, this is true for two primary reasons. First, and most obviously, a single MIRVed missile can be used to eliminate numerous enemy nuclear sites simultaneously. Thus, theoretically at least, only a small portion of an adversary’s missile force would be necessary to completely eliminate one’s strategic deterrent. Secondly, MIRVed missiles enable countries to use cross-targeting techniques of employing two or more missiles against a single target, which increases the kill probability.
In other words, MIRVs are extremely destabilizing because they make adversary’s nuclear arsenals vulnerable to being wiped out in a surprise first strike. In the case of China, Beijing’s acquisition of a MIRVed capability is likely to force India to greatly increase the size of its nuclear arsenal, as well as force it to disperse its nuclear weapons across a greater sway of land to prevent China from being able to conduct a successful decapitation strike. Such a development in Delhi would upset the Indo-Pakistani nuclear balance, likely prompting Islamabad to take corresponding actions of its own.
China’s acquisition of a MIRVed capability is also likely to upset the strategic balance with Russia. As Moscow’s conventional military capabilities have eroded since the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia has leaned more heavily on nuclear weapons for its national defense. It therefore seeks to maintain a clear nuclear advantage over potential adversaries like China. Beijing’s acquisition of MIRVed missiles threatens to erode this advantage.
As Gertz’s notes, the U.S. intelligence community believes that the DF-41 will ultimately be able to carry up to 10 nuclear warheads. Such a development would likely force China to increase the size of its nuclear arsenal. To date, China and India (as well as the world’s other nuclear powers) have maintained relatively small nuclear arsenals compared with Russia and the United States.
The introduction of MIRVed technologies into the Asian nuclear balance may render this no longer true. For this reason— along with its long-range and solid fuel—the DF-41 is the most dangerous nuclear weapon in China’s arsenal.
- "Teflon" Donald Trump Holds Giant "Pep Rally" At Football Stadium – Live Feed
Live feed
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Last weekend, Donald Trump served notice that he hasn’t lost his flair for the dramatic when, after a short flight from LaGuardia in his private 757, the brazen billionaire arrived at the Iowa State Fair in a $7 million Sikorsky.
On Friday evening, Trump will look to one up himself in Alabama where, sensing an opportunity to create the biggest spectacle yet, his campaign decided to move a rally originally scheduled for the Mobile, Alabama Civic Center to Ladd-Peebles Stadium.
That’s right, this evening, Donald Trump will hold what he’s calling a “pep rally” at a football field that seats 43,000 people.
We are going to have a wild time in Alabama tonight! Finally, the silent majority is back! http://t.co/Vj8vho1ro7
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 21, 2015
Here’s more from The Washington Post on why there’s more to the event (from a strategy perspective) than meets the eye:
Mobile, Ala., doesn’t usually host presidential primary rallies. But this weekend it’s expected to host a doozy. Donald Trump will take over Ladd-Peebles Stadium, usually home to high school football games on Friday nights, not presidential pep rallies. Trump’s campaign shifted from a smaller venue to the stadium after seeing big demand for tickets; it expects 35,000 to attend.
As with all most things Trump, there’s a level of savvy that’s not immediately apparent on the surface.
Alabama is one of the so-called SEC primary states that lands early in the cycle, adding importance that Alabama doesn’t usually have.
But Mobile County also lies on the Gulf Coast, one of a string of relatively populous nearby counties. It’s close to other big population centers. New Orleans is only two hours away, and Tallahassee 3½ hours. For Trump fans willing to embark on a longer drive, Birmingham and Atlanta aren’t too far, either.
What Trump’s doing, clearly, is not just trying to hold a rally in Mobile. He’s trying to show strength across the entire Deep South. If his grandiose expectations come true — which they have a recent habit of doing — his point will be made.
- (Alleged) Footage Of Hillary's Email Scrubbing Strategy
Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,
We’ve posted a lot of “dismal’ stuff today, but since it’s better to laugh than to cry, we give you the following…
I don’t know what’s more horrifying, Hillary’s blatant disregard for the law, or the thought of her doing yoga.
Thanks for playin’
*Image courtesy of William Banzai7
* * *
For related articles, see:
Released Hillary Clinton Emails Reveal…She Was Reading a Book on How to Delete Emails
Bernie Sanders Takes the Lead from Hillary in Latest New Hampshire Poll
So Yeah, Hillary Clinton Did Send Classified Emails From Her Private Account After All
Hillary Clinton Blasts High Frequency Trading Ahead of Fundraiser with High Frequency Trader
Cartoons Mocking “Goldman Rats” and Hillary Clinton Appear All Over NYC
Arizona State Hikes Tuition Dramatically, Yet Pays the Clintons $500,000 to Make an Appearance
- These Currencies Could Be The Next To Tumble In Global FX Wars
Earlier this week, Kazakhstan moved to a free float for the tenge, prompting the currency to plunge by some 25%.
The move came after the country’s exporters could no longer stand the pain from plunging crude prices and the RUB’s relative weakness. China’s move to devalue the yuan was the straw that broke the camel’s back.
Here, summed up in one chart, was the problem:
This “may prop up growth in the country and help [the] fiscal sector to accommodate external pressures in case they continue to mount,” Deutsche Bank said, commenting shortly after the news hit.
In many ways, the decision to float the tenge (like the move by Vietnam to allow the dong to swing in a wider channel) is emblematic of what’s taking place in FX markets from Brazil to South Korea.
Shockwaves from China’s devaluation have conspired with sluggish global demand and an attendant commodities slump to wreak havoc on developing market currencies the world over. For Asia ex-Japan, the outlook is especially dire, as the PBoC’s FX bombshell threatens to undermine regional export competitiveness, put upward pressure on the region’s REER, and will likely serve to further depress demand from the mainland.
Idiosyncratic political events have only made the situation worse for the likes of Brazil, Turkey, and Malaysia.
Here are some brief comments from Citi:
Is this Asian Currency Crisis Part 2? It sure feels like it. It would be more accurate to call it the Great EM Deval-Meltdown as emerging market currencies are in freefall and another peg bites the dust overnight (Kazakhstan). There are few pegs left besides Saudi Arabia and EURCZK and both are under pressure. The 1-year SAR forwards are at 12-year wides and EURCZK is pinned to the 27.00 floor. Take a look at the white chart below right which shows Malaysian Ringgit and you can get a sense of the 1997/1998 crisis vs. now. The moves are not as big yet and volatility has not exploded in the same way but it feels like we are in an EM crisis right now. Gold agrees. RIP BRICs thesis.
Against this backdrop, Bloomberg has taken a look at which currencies “are among those most at risk from this conflux of global developments.” Here’s more:
- Saudi Arabia’s riyal: Armed with $672 billion in foreign reserves, Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, has enough capacity to hold the peg, according to Deutsche Bank AG. Nonetheless, speculators are betting on a break of the currency regime as crude oil tumbled to a seven-year low. The forwards, contracts used by traders to bet on or hedge against future price moves, fell to the weakest since 2003, implying about a 1 percent decline in the riyal over the next 12 months.
- Turkmenistan’s mana
- Tajikistan’s somoni
- Armenia’s dram
- Kyrgyzstan’s som
- Egypt’s pound: The country has limited investors’ access to foreign currencies amid a shortage since the 2011 Arab Spring protests. Traders are betting the pound will weaken about 22 percent in a year, according to 12-month non-deliverable forwards.
- Turkey’s lira: It’s one of the world’s worst-performing currencies since China’s devaluation on Aug. 11. An escalation in political violence and the probability of early elections compound the issues.
- Nigeria’s naira
- Ghana’s cedi
- Zambia’s kwacha
- Malaysia’s ringgit: The currency slid to a 17-year low on Thursday and foreign-exchange reserves fell below the $100 billion mark for the first time since 2010.
Below, find a bit of color on the three highlighted currencies followed by comments from Deutsche Bank on the vulnerability of various pegs going forward.
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As far as Saudi Arabia and the peg go, it’s worth noting that as we outlined in detail (here and here), the Kingdom’s financial situation looks to be deteriorating as evidenced both by the country’s move to open its stock market and by the decision to tap the bond market for cash amid a draw down in FX reserves. As we put it back in June, “the move to allow direct foreign ownership of domestic equities [may reflect the fact that] falling crude prices and military action in Yemen have weighed on Saudi Arabia’s fiscal position.” Here’s a bit of additional color from Citi:
The impact on FX reserves has been marked. The Saudi government traditionally parks its excess revenues with SAMA, the central bank, rather than with a sovereign wealth fund as is the case in some other GCC countries. As a result, fiscal reserves are co-mingled with FX reserves as SAMA invests the government deposits alongside the rest of its funds. Figure 2 shows that since last summer, when oil prices began to fall, the Saudi government has drawn down deposits with SAMA to the tune of over $100bn as it sought to finance a growing deficit. As a consequence, this has brought down SAMA’s overall FX reserve position.
But the decline in headline reserves is a significant factor fuelling speculation in markets that the Saudi Riyal peg to the dollar may be unsustainable, and that Saudi may follow China’s lead and revalue (depreciate) or depeg its currency. 12-month forward rates have risen to 3.78 SAR to the dollar in the past week, not a huge change from 3.75 but still the highest divergence from the spot rate since 2009, which is noteworthy.
And some color on Egypt, also from Citi:
Although we had expected the recovery in the economy to suffer periodic setbacks, it is clear that the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) has become concerned. Not only has it not raised rates in response to the rise in inflation in 1H 2015, but it also allowed the EGP to weaken further in July. Although this step down in EGP was of a smaller scale than in January, it may signal that with no significant improvement in the growth of current account outlook in 2H 2015 the CBE may allow further similar scale periodic currency adjustments.
As for the lira, we’ve said quite a bit why it’s been under so much pressure of late. In short, political turmoil and an escalating civil war have plunged the country into crisis, undermined confidence, and sent stocks into bear market territory. For the full breakdown, see here.
Finally, we close with comments from Deutsche bank:
Where next?
The immediate implications of the Kazakh devaluation for the rest of the EMEA region should not be exaggerated. Kazakhstan’s huge loss of competitiveness relative to its largest trading partner, with which it has a customs union, made it unique. The pressure on other dollar pegs is nevertheless understandable and to varying degrees justified. Before the tenge was allowed to float freely this week, it was 11% stronger than it had been on average over the last 10 years. The four other major currencies in the region that are even more overvalued according to this admittedly simple metric all still maintain dollar pegs: the Saudi Riyal, the United Arab Emirate dirham, the Nigerian naira, and the Egyptian pound. Bulgaria, Croatia, and Romania also peg or manage their exchange rate regimes tightly, but against the euro rather than the dollar; and in their cases, currencies look more fairly valued.
Incidentally, you would have seen all of this coming and would have been well on your way to understanding how structurally important collapsing crude prices are to global finance had you simply read “How The Petrodollar Quiety Died, And No One Noticed,” last November.
- A Different Perspective On Market Valuations
Submitted by Michael Lebowitz via 720Global.com,
Risk is not a number. Risk is simply overpaying for an asset.
Investment managers who avoid overpaying for assets increase their odds of purchasing fruitful investments and limiting their drawdowns when investments turn against them. Shunning overpriced assets helps one generate steadily growing investment returns which has proven to be one of the most effective ways to grow wealth over time due to the underappreciated power of compounding. While this approach sounds straight-forward, investment prudence is typically disregarded in frothy markets such as we have today and also when markets are in the grips of fear as was most recently experienced in the financial crisis of 2008/2009. In our essay “To Win, the First Thing you have to do is not Lose”, we documented how the volatility of investment returns can significantly hamper portfolio growth over the long term. In particular it stressed that large percentage losses require even larger percentage gains to simply recover original losses.
This article takes a unique, common-sense approach to describe the current market’s expectations for earnings growth in order to gauge the reasonableness of valuations and ultimately prices. This analysis is intended to help determine whether the currently elevated Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings Ratio (CAPE 10) reflects overly optimistic prospects causing investors to “overpay” for assets or is it an assessment based on realistic earnings expectations reflective of a market that is fairly priced or possibly undervalued. This determination is important for investors to understand as CAPE 10, like most valuation statistics, is currently at an extreme when viewed through the prism of historical valuations.
CAPE 10 and its value
Robert Shiller’s CAPE 10 stands out amongst price to earnings (P/E) calculations in that it incorporates earnings over ten year periods, while most other P/E measures use forecasted future earnings or a relatively short period of recent earnings. The longer time frame used in CAPE 10 provides a better measure of earnings sustainability, and according to Ben Graham and David Dodd, offers a more dependable earnings proxy. It is this approach to earnings valuation that makes CAPE 10 a successful indicator of future market returns over time. The graph below, from John Hussman of Hussman Funds documents the strong correlation between CAPE 10 and future 10-year equity returns and emphasizes the durability of this approach.
CAPE 10 Correlation with Future Market Return
The following table from “The Humility of Rates and the Arrogance of Equites”, compares prior CAPE 10 readings to the average GDP in the two years following each CAPE 10 measurement. Not surprisingly, the worst S&P 500 performance occurred when CAPE 10 was high and subsequent economic growth was weak. The best returns are achieved when a low CAPE 10 was followed by strong economic growth. The current CAPE and GDP expectations are highlighted by the box at the bottom right. The numbers in the table are annualized, so doubling the results produce the potential 2-year total return.
2yr Annualized S&P 500 Returns at Various CAPE 10/GDP Combinations
The graph and table highlight that the odds of good returns are clearly in the investors favor when CAPE 10 is low and they decrease significantly when it is elevated.
CAPE 10 today
Before detailing the results of the analysis, the graph below offers a current perspective of CAPE 10 valuations.
CAPE 10
Presently, CAPE 10 is at a level seldom witnessed. CAPE 10 is on par with levels preceding the 2008/09 financial crisis and eclipsed only by the 1990’s technology bubble and the Great Depression of the 1930’s. In each of these other instances the ultimate drawdown from the peak was over 50%! The red dotted line highlights average CAPE 10 since 1900 and the black dotted line the average since 1980. The shorter time period starting in 1980 was included as some analysts prefer to rely upon the “modern era” as a baseline for analysis. The modern era includes the technology bubble which produced unparalleled CAPE 10 readings. If one excludes data from the heart of the technology bubble (1995-2001), the average CAPE 10 for the “modern era” drops from 21.44 to 18.60 during this era, closer to the 16.58 average since 1900. Compared to the full time series and the shorter “modern era”, current CAPE 10 is 60% and 24% overvalued respectively and 43% overvalued when the technology bubble is excluded from the “modern era”. Based on the current CAPE 10 ratio, investors have overly optimistic expectations for future earnings growth and are willing to pay premiums rarely seen in over 100 years. Alternatively, investors might simply be unclear about the risks they are assuming, confused by the market distortions created by the Federal Reserve’s zero interest rate policy and quantitative easing.
CAPE 10 analysis
The formula used here is similar to that applied in “Shorting the Buyback Contradiction” and is employed to measure earnings expectations. The formula assumes no change in the stock price (the numerator), and then calculates the rate at which earnings (the denominator) must grow in order for the market’s current P/E ratio to match its historical average. It quantifies the earnings that investors require over a given time period. With an understanding of expected annualized earnings per share (EPS) growth, one can better determine the validity of the current premium paid for each dollar of earnings versus what investors have historically paid for each dollar of earnings. To quantify the market’s assumption for earnings growth we compare the current CAPE 10 ratio to the average CAPE 10 ratio over the aforementioned time frames.
The table below summarizes the results. Regardless of which data set (1900 or 1980 to current) one uses and which term (3 or 5 years) one selects to allow earnings to grow, currently required EPS growth is multiples of what has occurred over the last 3-5 years. U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, a large driver of corporate earnings, sends the same message – expectations for future performance are way too optimistic against recent observations. That is not to say these rates of growth are impossible, but the probability seems quite low and one should question the likelihood given weak economic conditions. Using the observations since 1900 in the table below to help interpret the data, annual EPS must grow 13.78% over the next 5 years to normalize the current CAPE 10 with its historic average. This is nearly double the 7.64% annualized EPS growth and 4 times the 3.45% annualized GDP growth over the prior five years.
As opposed to solving for expected earnings as we discussed above, one can also normalize CAPE 10 by keeping EPS fixed and solving for the one-time change in price that would bring the current CAPE 10 to its historical average. Those figures (-37.70% and -19.45%) are also shown above (note they are one time price changes thus identical both time periods). Readers are heavily cautioned that during an economic and market downturn these figures likely underestimate the potential losses. If earnings drop, as is common in recessions, the price change required to normalize would be larger than shown. Furthermore, markets rarely retrace to fair value, which is to say they have a tendency to over-correct further extending the downside risk.
Summary
- In the long run investment success is attained through a steady stream of growing investment returns coupled with the compounding of those returns
- The CAPE 10 ratio and many other valuation techniques are at extreme levels rarely seen in history
- Historical precedence foretells large drawdowns at current CAPE 10 levels
- The earnings estimates embedded within current CAPE 10 readings are likely unrealistic
- The combination of a normalizing CAPE 10 and a concurrent decrease in earnings would be problematic for share prices
- Wealth preservation should be top of mind for all investment managers, especially given the extreme valuations.
When paying a premium for equities, or any asset for that matter, one runs the serious risk of capital impairment. Worse, most professional investment managers falling prey to the bullish sentiment currently surrounding this period of extreme valuations will likely not live up to their overriding fiduciary duty – the preservation of wealth.
Following the herd may have its benefits at times, but following the herd over a cliff never ends well.
Ending in the words of Seth Klarman: “Risk is not inherent in an investment; it is always relative to the price paid”
- Is The Oil Crash A Result Of Excess Supply Or Plunging Demand: The Unpleasant Answer In One Chart
One of the most vocal discussions in the past year has been whether the collapse, subsequent rebound, and recent relapse in the price of oil is due to surging supply as Saudi Arabia pumps out month after month of record production to bankrupt as many shale companies before its reserves are depleted, or tumbling demand as a result of a global economic slowdown. Naturally, the bulls have been pounding the table on the former, because if it is the later it suggests the global economy is in far worse shape than anyone but those long the 10Year have imagined.
Courtesy of the following chart by BofA, we have the answer: while for the most part of 2015, the move in the price of oil was a combination of both supply and demand, the most recent plunge has been entirely a function of what now appears to be a global economic recession, one which will get far worse if the Fed indeed hikes rates as it has repeatedly threatened as it begins to undo 7 years of ultra easy monetary policy.
Here is BofA:
Retreating global equities, bond yields and DM breakevens confirm that EM has company. Much as in late 2014, global markets are going through a significant global growth scare. To illustrate this, we update our oil price decomposition exercise, breaking down changes in crude prices into supply and demand drivers (The disinflation red-herring).
Chart 6 shows that, in early July, the drop in oil prices seems to have reflected primarily abundant supply (related, for example, to the Iran deal). Over the past month, however, falling oil prices have all but reflected weak demand.
BofA’s conclusion:
The global outlook has indeed worsened. Our economists have recently trimmed GDP forecasts in Japan, Brazil, Mexico, Colombia and South Africa, while noting greater downside risks in Turkey due to political uncertainty. Asian exports continue to underwhelm, and capital outflows are adding to regional woes. Looking ahead, we still expect the largest DM economies to keep expanding at above-trend pace but global headwinds have intensified.
And yet, BofA’s crack economist Ethan Harris still expects a September Fed rate hike. Perhaps the price of oil should turn negative (yes, just like NIRP, negative commodity prices are very possible) for the Fed to realize just how cornered it truly is.
- Cop Tries To Cook Meth At Government Science Lab, Blows Up Building
Back on July 18, Christopher Bartley (a police lieutenant for the National Institutes of Standards and Technology), tried to refill a butane lighter.
Or he tried to cook a batch of meth.
Either way, the result was the same: he accidentally blew the windows out of a highly secured government research facility.
Bartley, who served in the army and was recently acting chief of NIST’s police department, was on duty at around 7:30 last month when an explosion “ripped through the lab sending a blast shield flying about 25 feet.”
Firefighters got the butane lighter explanation from Bartley, but investigators became suspicious when they found pseudoephedrine and drain opener at the scene.
They became even more suspicious when they found a recipe for methamphetamine.
That discovery apparently prompted Bartley to admit that in fact, the explosion was the result of an attempt to cook meth at the site. He resigned the next day and would later be charged with “knowingly and intentionally attempt[ing] to manufacture a mixture and substance containing a detectable amount of methamphetamine.”
Open and shut, right? Not so fast, says Bartley’s attorney, Steven VanGrack.
You see, what looks to everyone like one man’s attempt to use a government research lab to live out a fantasy of becoming Walter White, was actually a well meaning attempt to “understand more about this substance.” It was “unauthorized training experiment,” VanGrack continues, adding that it “clearly failed.”
Apparently, the court is meant to believe that had Bartley succeeded in cooking the drug, he was merely going to educate his fellow officers on the process, presumably in an attempt to increase awareness.
“He wanted to see how to make it,” VanGrack concluded.
And on that point, there seems to be little doubt, but as Rep. Lamar Smith (R-Texas) said after the blast made news, this isn’t exactly what taxpayer money is supposed to be funding. “The fact that this explosion took place at a taxpayer-funded NIST facility, potentially endangering NIST employees, is of great concern,” Smith said, in a letter to the Secretary of the Department of Commerce (embedded below).
As for the facility itself, we’ll leave you with the following description from the official government website. The punchline is highlighted for your amusement:
Welcome to the National Institute of Standards and Technology’s web site. Founded in 1901 and now part of the U.S. Department of Commerce, NIST is one of the nation’s oldest physical science laboratories. Congress established the agency to remove a major handicap to U.S. industrial competitiveness at the time—a second-rate measurement infrastructure that lagged behind the capabilities of the United Kingdom, Germany, and other economic rivals. Today, NIST measurements support the smallest of technologies—nanoscale devices so tiny that tens of thousands can fit on the end of a single human hair—to the largest and most complex of human-made creations, from earthquake-resistant skyscrapers to wide-body jetliners to global communication networks. We invite you to learn about our current projects, to find out how you can work with us, or to make use of our products and services.
- Paul Krugman "What Ails The World Right Now Is That Governments Aren’t Deep Enough In Debt"
This was written by a Nobel prize winning economist without a trace or sarcasm, irony or humor. It is excerpted, and presented without commentary.
From the NYT:
Debt Is Good
… the point simply that public debt isn’t as bad as legend has it? Or can government debt actually be a good thing?
Believe it or not, many economists argue that the economy needs a sufficient amount of public debt out there to function well. And how much is sufficient? Maybe more than we currently have. That is, there’s a reasonable argument to be made that part of what ails the world economy right now is that governments aren’t deep enough in debt.
I know that may sound crazy. After all, we’ve spent much of the past five or six years in a state of fiscal panic, with all the Very Serious People declaring that we must slash deficits and reduce debt now now now or we’ll turn into Greece, Greece I tell you.
But the power of the deficit scolds was always a triumph of ideology over evidence, and a growing number of genuinely serious people — most recently Narayana Kocherlakota, the departing president of the Minneapolis Fed — are making the case that we need more, not less, government debt.
Why?
One answer is that issuing debt is a way to pay for useful things, and we should do more of that when the price is right. The United States suffers from obvious deficiencies in roads, rails, water systems and more; meanwhile, the federal government can borrow at historically low interest rates. So this is a very good time to be borrowing and investing in the future, and a very bad time for what has actually happened: an unprecedented decline in public construction spending adjusted for population growth and inflation.
Beyond that, those very low interest rates are telling us something about what markets want. I’ve already mentioned that having at least some government debt outstanding helps the economy function better. How so? The answer, according to M.I.T.’s Ricardo Caballero and others, is that the debt of stable, reliable governments provides “safe assets” that help investors manage risks, make transactions easier and avoid a destructive scramble for cash.
* * *
[L]ow interest rates, Mr. Kocherlakota declares, are a problem. When interest rates on government debt are very low even when the economy is strong, there’s not much room to cut them when the economy is weak, making it much harder to fight recessions. There may also be consequences for financial stability: Very low returns on safe assets may push investors into too much risk-taking — or for that matter encourage another round of destructive Wall Street hocus-pocus.
What can be done? Simply raising interest rates, as some financial types keep demanding (with an eye on their own bottom lines), would undermine our still-fragile recovery. What we need are policies that would permit higher rates in good times without causing a slump. And one such policy, Mr. Kocherlakota argues, would be targeting a higher level of debt.
* * *
Now, in principle the private sector can also create safe assets, such as deposits in banks that are universally perceived as sound….
* * *
* * *
At this point we stopped reading.
- Weekend Reading: Is This The Big One?
Submitted by Lance Roberts via STA Wealth Management,
Some month's back I posted an article entitled "No One Rings A Bell At The Top" wherein I stated:
"The current levels of investor complacency are more usually associated with late-stage bull markets rather than the beginning of new ones. Of course, if you think about it, this only makes sense if you refer to the investor psychology chart above.
The point here is simple. The combined levels of bullish optimism, lack of concern about a possible market correction (don't worry the Fed has the markets back), and rising levels of leverage in markets provide the 'ingredients' for a more severe market correction. However, it is important to understand that these ingredients by themselves are inert. It is because they are inert that they are quickly dismissed under the guise that 'this time is different.'
Like a thermite reaction, when these relatively inert ingredients are ignited by a catalyst, they will burn extremely hot. Unfortunately, there is no way to know exactly what that catalyst will be or when it will occur. The problem for individuals is that they are trapped by the combustion an unable to extract themselves in time."
Of course, what I didn't realize at the time was that, on Thursday, the markets would plunge like a stone sending investors running for cover and the media scrambling for answers. What caused it? Is this THE correction? What happens now?
This weekend's reading list is a collection of thoughts as to whether the current correction is just a buying opportunity, or whether this is Redd Foxx's "Big One."
RETORT REPORT
Wallace Witkowski penned: "One out of four stocks on the S&P 500 Thursday are firmly in correction territory, or down 20% or more off their 52-week highs. At last count, 133 stocks on the index are bearish, according to FactSet data."
G Shelter retorted: "Well the Bear is just growling so far. He hasn't mauled anyone yet. He's afraid of The Bullard."
THE LIST
1) Tom McClellan Sees Market Decline by Tomi Kilgore via MarketWatch
At the moment, they are telling him to be bullish on the stock market for all of his trading time frames, including those that trade every few days, weeks and months. But bulls should be ready to flee, as soon as this week.
That's because McClellan said his timing models suggest 'THE' top in stocks will be hit some time over the next week. He expects "nothing good for the bulls for the rest of the year," he said in a phone interview with MarketWatch."
Read Also: Great News: Investors Are Dumping US Stocks by Howard Gold via MarketWatch
2) The Bulls Are In Danger Of Turning Into Lemmings by Doug Kass via Kass' Korner
"Though the bullish cabal postulates that serious market tops and corrections can only occur in response to recession, those observers may not be focused on the changing landscape of a flat, networked and interconnected world and could be failing to properly analyze failed or less effective monetary policy.
The current conditions that have presaged a possible developing global economic crisis are sui generis – in a class by itself, unique and served up by a financial culture and orthodoxy that may have never existed before. And, though history rhymes, the outgrowth of malinvestment that has been emitted from current conditions is taking different forms, as it has done in each progressive cycle."
Read Also: Bear Markets & Contractions: Then And Now by Chris Ciovacco via Ciovacco Capital
3) The Tide Has Turned by Thad Beversdorf via Stockman's Contra Corner
"I've been writing for almost a year now about the economic cannibalism that has been feeding earnings growth. I have discussed this concept with a dire warning that feeding earnings expansion through operational contraction is a short lived meal. And well we are now seeing the indications that the growth through contraction has now hit its inevitable end. Have a look at the following chart which is really the only chart one needs to study at this point. The chart depicts S&P 500 adjusted earnings per share (blue line), S&P Price level (green line), S&P 500 Revs per share (red line) and US Productivity of Total Industry (olive line)."
Read Also: Listen Up-The Do Ring A Bell At The Top by Jim Quinn via Stockman's Contra Corner
4) Big Stocks Are Last Hope For Decaying Market by Michael Kahn via Barron's
"We can add the already falling trend in the small-company Russell 2000 to the mix, but the S&P 500 still rules. Its resilience, thanks to the strength of a limited number of big stocks, hides the fact that market breadth has been falling since April, according to the New York Stock Exchange advance-decline line. More stocks have been falling than rising. And Wednesday afternoon the number of NYSE stocks hitting new 52-week lows soared to 267. That is more than 8% of all issues traded that day, and it is quite ominous."
But Also Read: S&P 500 Ready To Rally? by Tiho via The Short Side Of Long
5) Is High Yield Sending A Warning by Urban Camel via The Fat Pitch Blog
"Spreads on high yield (junk) bonds relative to treasuries have widened. This implies heightened credit risk. The widening and narrowing of spreads is correlated to equity performance over time. Since mid -2014, these have diverged (data from Gavekal Capital).
Are equities setting up for a fall? The short answer is no, at least not based on this measure alone."
Read Also: Junk Is Getting Junkier by Ed Yardeni via Dr. Ed's Blog
Other Reading
The Genius Of Warren Buffett In 23 Quotes by Paul Merriman via MarketWatch
A False Sense Of Security by Ben Carlson via A Wealth Of Common Sense
After 6-Years Of QE – St. Louis Fed Admits QE Was A Mistake by Tyler Durden via ZeroHedge
The Fuss About Market Liquidity by Yves Smith via Naked Capitalism
Debt-Financed Buybacks Has Placed Investors On Margin by Dr. John Hussman via Hussman Funds
"Most Bull Markets Have A Copper Ceiling" – Anthony Gallea
Have a great weekend.
- Carnage: Worst Week For Stocks In 4 Years, VIX Soars Most Ever
Only one thing seemed appropriate…
* * *
The mainstream media really nailed this move in the past month (here and here)
- China's worst week since July – closes at 5 month lows
- Global Stocks' worst week since May 2012
- US Stocks' worst week in 4 years
- VIX's biggest weekly rise ever
- Crude's longest losing streak in 29 years
- Gold's best week since January
- 5Y TSY Yield's biggest absolute drop in 2 years
* * *
Did you get message Fed?
THE CLEAR MESSAGE FROM THE MARKETS IS – HIKE RATES AND YOU'RE DONE, GIVE US QE4 OR IT'S ALL OVER!!!
So let's start with stocks…
Bloodbathery… This was the worst week for global stocks (MSCI World) since May 2012
And the worst week for US equities since Nov 2011…
Futures show the pain started with China PMI, then dumped as Europe collapsed, then there was no help from the machines as gamma was so imbalanced…
Of course we saw The BoJ in da house to help squeeze stocks with some USDJPY crushing…but that only worked for the small caps (easiest to squeeze)… and then it all collapsed…
Putting these moves in context, the red lines show how long since the US Majors are unchanged…
Dow enters correction… this was the 9th largest point drop in the history of The Dow…
Financials and Energy were monkeyhammered this week (as both were completely decoupled from their credit markets)…
Financials crash…
And Surprise!!! Energy stocks collapse to credit…
Who could have seen that coming?
No brainer: short energy stocks, long credit pic.twitter.com/rC05G32OkS
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 11, 2015
Carnage in AAPL slammed the Nasdaq…
Since QE3, all but The Nasdaq are now red… (and Nasdaq is collapsing fast)…Trannies down almost 10% since the end of QE3!!
VIX exploded this week with the biggest jump ever…
And The VIX ETF saw its biggest 2-day rise since 2011 (no wonder with 61.7mm shares short agaionst just 60.6mm outstanding)
As VIX catches up to credit risk…
and before we leave stock-land, her is perhaps the 'spookiest' chart… a Fibonnaci 61.8% extension of the 2007 high to 2009 lows 'nails the top' for now… (h/t @allstarcharts )
* * *
OK… so let's look at bond-land. Treasury yields collapsed this week with 10Y nearing a 1 handle… 5y yield down over 17bps is the bigest absolute drop since Sept 2013
Leaving the entire bond complex lower in yield on the year…
And stocks finally caught down to credot's reality…
FX Markets have seen some serious carnage this week…
The US Dollar index futures contract was down 2.7% on the week – its biggest drop since June 2013…
EM FX was a disaster…
Finally – the commodity space…
Very mixed picture with PMs holding gains (despite Silver's slam today) as industrial commodities were clobbered…
Bloomberg's Commodity Index is at its lowest since 1999…
Crude oil fell to a 3 handle –
Dropping for 8 straight weeks for the first time since 1986…
Note that gold reversed today early on after touching its 100DMA… and silver revsed today to its 50DMA
And finally, because we suspect the mainstream media will be looking for an excuse to explain all this carnage… here is the culprit…
This mornings culprit for the nasty sell-off pic.twitter.com/OYbBFQyYvI
— Stalingrad & Poorski (@Stalingrad_Poor) August 21, 2015
Charts: Bloomberg
Bonus Chart: Today…
@BarbarianCap not what I'm seeing pic.twitter.com/YkvyBArsgX
— 3:30 Ramp Capital™ (@RampCapitalLLC) August 21, 2015
- Summarizing "Investor" Thoughts Today (In 1 Cartoon)
- You Can Buy These Companies' Cash At Up To A 60% Discount
Several days ago, some were confused to read a Bloomberg article about Chinese cell phone maker HTC whose market cap dipped below its net cash (it has no debt), meaning one could buy its cash at a discount. Since then HTC’s stock has continued sinking, and as of today, using CapIQ data, the company’s cash of $1.7 billion, which the market is assigning value to as its only asset, was worth about 55% more than its entire market cap. This means that if one were to buy the company today, and liquidate it as it stood the same day, one would – at least on paper – buy the company’s cash at a 36% discount and end up with an immediate cash profit of more than 50%.
Said otherwise, HTC now has a negative Total Enterprise Value (market cap plus debt less cash).
It isn’t the only one: in this “baby with the bathwater” selling which we have seen in the past few weeks especially in EMs and China, various other such opportunities have presented themselves, and to assist readers who may be looking to buy cash at a discount of as much as 60%, we have compiled a list of some of the most prominent global companies with a negative TEV, and whose cash can be bought at a substantial discount to fair value: in some cases as much as 60%.
Of course, it goes without saying that if a company’s cash is trading at 60% discount below fair value, there probably is a reason. So before anyone blindly rushes into these discounted opportunities, feel free to find out first just why the cash can be bought at 40 cents on the dollar…
- Why The Market Is Crashing Into The Close: JPM Explains
Curious why someone just pulled a trapdoor from under the market? JPM’s Marko Kolanovic, head of quant strategies explains.
Impact of option hedging on the S&P 500 into the close
S&P 500 put option gamma exceeded call option gamma by more than $50bn prior to the option expiry this morning. This was the highest S&P 500 put gamma imbalance ever. The impact of this imbalance was evident in the intraday market momentum developed from 3:30PM to the close yesterday. The Figure below left show yesterday’s intraday price action for the S&P 500. We note that the market selloff accelerated into the close, with a 60bp fall in the last 30 minutes. Consistent with theory on the impact of gamma hedging (see our report Impact of Derivatives Hedging), this temporary market impact reversed near the market open today (57bps recovery in the first 30 minutes, right Figure).
Despite the fact that S&P 500 options expired this morning, put gamma is still higher than call gamma by ~$38bn, which is a large imbalance (on account of other S&P 500 option maturities and SPY options expiring at the close). This can lead to further selling pressure into the close today.Given that the market is already down ~2%, we expect the market selloff to accelerate after 3:30PM into the close with peak hedging pressure ~3:45PM. The magnitude of the negative price impact could be ~30-60bps in the absence of any other fundamental buying or selling pressure into the close.
Good luck.
- The Stock Market Is In Trouble – How Bad Can It Get?
Submitted by Pater Tenebrarum via Acting-Man.com,
A Look at the Broader Market’s Internals
We have previously discussed the stock market’s deteriorating internals, and in light of recent market weakness want to take a brief look at the broader market in the form if the NYSE Index (NYA). First it has to be noted that a majority of the stocks in the NYA are already in bearish trends. The chart below shows the NYA and the percentage of stocks above their 200 day and 50 day moving averages, which is 39.16% and 33.77% respectively.
When more than 60% of stocks in the broader market trade below their 200 dma with the SPX not too far off an all time high, it is clear that cap-weighted indexes are helped up by an ever smaller number of big cap stocks. This typically happens near important trend changes, but it is not always certain that the market will decline significantly when such a divergence occurs.
Is he about to make his entrance?
Cartoon via wallstreetsurvivor.com
One possibility is also that the market merely corrects, and resume its rally once a sufficient number of stocks becomes oversold. That said, the broader market hasn’t made any headway in more than half a year, with the volatility of major indexes and averages declining to multi-decade lows. It is certainly tempting to classify this period as one of distribution, especially given recent weakness.
In the short term, the large number of stocks in a downtrend may actually help produce a bounce, especially as some sentiment indicators such as equity put/call ratios have increased to a level usually associated with short term lows. However, we believe one has to take a differentiated approach to interpreting sentiment and positioning data at this juncture and we will explain why in more detail further below.
First let us look at the NYA internals mentioned above. In addition to the percentage of stocks below their 200 and 50 day moving averages, we show the cumulative NYA advance/decline line in the second chart below. The A/D line has been in a downtrend since late April.
The NYA and the percentage of stocks still above their 200 and 50 day moving averages. The market’s momentum peak occurred more than a year ago, in early July 2014 – click to enlarge.
The cumulative NYA A/D line has peaked in late April – then a divergence between the A/D line and the NYA was created in May. Such divergences don’t have to be meaningful, but they do occur at every major trend change. In other words, there doesn’t have to be a trend change when such divergences are spotted, but no trend change happens without them – click to enlarge.
The CBOE equity put/call ratio is currently at 0.81 – this is in the general area (0.70-1.10) that is often associated with short term lows – click to enlarge.
The Sentiment and Positioning Backdrop
Several recent articles at Marketwatch are trying to make the point that a “contrarian bullish situation” now exists. One author writes “Great News: Investors are Dumping US Stocks”, but goes on to explain that they are instead buying international and more specifically, primarily European stocks. This makes no difference in our opinion – as long as they are buying stocks, they are not bearish.
There continues to be a widespread conviction that retail investors have to beat down the doors and rush into the market before it can top out. We believe this is actually a “bearish hook”. This has been a “bubble of professionals” for 6 years running and this isn’t going to change anytime soon. First of all, retail investors have been burned twice over the past 15 years by two of the worst bear markets in history. Secondly, demographics dictate that retiring boomers will become sellers of stocks for a number of years. They simply cannot take the risk of buying into an overvalued market again in their retirement years.
Anther article discusses recent sentiment/positioning data and is more interesting from our perspective. As to its assertion that “insider buying has increased and has therefore turned bullish”, we would note that insiders have been dumping stocks left and right for three years running. One or two weeks of buying are hardly making a dent in the longer term picture. Moreover, we are not appraised of the sectors in which the buying is occurring. We only know fur sure that it isn’t happening in the stocks that are actually holding the market up – i.e., assorted big cap tech, biotech, retail, etc. stocks.
As we have recently reported, there has been a huge surge in buying by insiders in the gold sector – this is very rare, and therefore worthy of attention. We strongly suspect that insider buying is also occurring in other beaten down commodity stocks, but these stocks cannot be expected to push up the market as a whole – their share of total market cap is too small (their collapse hasn’t dragged the indexes down either after all). If e.g. the stocks of copper and iron ore producers were to rally, this would be a great relief to long-suffering holders of these shares, but it wouldn’t help the overall market much. Commodities are quite oversold though, and a rally in these sectors wouldn’t surprise us.
Let us look at some of the other factors mentioned in the article:
1 The Investor’s Intelligence Bull/Bear Ratio, which polls investment pros on their market outlooks, fell last week for the third week in a row, to a 10-month low of 2.16. A reading below is a clear buy signal, and we are pretty close.
2 The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) put/call ratio, on a three-day basis, recently rose to 0.8. Anything above 0.7 is bullish because it represents excessive pessimism, in that the number of puts purchased compared to calls has reached relative highs. Remember, put options give the right to buy a stock at a preset price. So they can be seen as insurance against a market decline, or a bet that a drop will happen. The put/call ratio measured over the 10 days also shows a high level of pessimism, which is bullish, says Bruce Bittles, chief investment strategist at brokerage Robert W. Baird & Co.
3 The Ned Davis Research Crowd Sentiment Poll recently showed extreme pessimism, also bullish in the contrarian sense.
We will address these in more detail further below (except for the put/call ratio, which we have already commented on above), but for now we would note that all of this is important only for the short term – and it may actually not even be overly relevant to the short term. Remember what we said above: this is a “bubble of professionals” – which has made sentiment indicators highly unreliable on the way up, as many of our readers probably recall. The question is, why should they be any more reliable on the way down?
Furthermore, all sentiment indicators that are relevant for the long term, are in the “beyond good and evil” zone and have been there for quite some time. Three of those are shown below: Margin debt, the mutual fund cash ratio, and retail money fund assets as a percentage of the S&P’s market cap. We are commenting below the charts as to their significance.
Margin debt is just off an all time high, well above previous peaks. If the market weakens beyond a certain point, this huge amount of margin debt could easily trigger an avalanche of forced selling. It isn’t going to sink the market per se, it just creates the potential for a very large sell-off – click to enlarge.
Mutual fund cash to assets ratio. At an all time low of 3.2%, mutual fund managers are definitely “all in”. They are not going to be buyers if the market declines – on the contrary, if they are hit with redemptions, they will turn into forced sellers as well – click to enlarge.
Retail money market funds as a percentage of the S&P 500 market cap sits at an all time low as well, far below previous historic low points. We can safely conclude that retail investors aren’t going to step up to the plate either – click to enlarge.
At the end of June we sent a list of objections to a friend with respect to the widely touted phrase that this is such a “hated” bull market. Many of the data in the list have been put together by Robert Prechter of EWI and we added a few observations of our own. The list inter alia contains references to the Investors Intelligence (II) Poll and an indicator published by Ned Davis, which are both mentioned in the Marketwatch article quoted above. We have highlighted them.
Once again, this list shows you something that is relevant from the perspective of a different time frame – namely the long term. A dip in the II poll may help create a short term low, but the long term data on this poll are actually nothing short of frightening. Given that this was posted in late June, some of the percentages may look slightly different by now, but not by much.
- The percentage of cash in mutual funds has been below 4% for all but one of the past 70 months. At the peak of the late 1990s tech mania in 2000, it stood at 4.2%
- Rydex bear assets have practically been wiped out. The amount left in bearish Rydex funds is now so small, that the ratio between bull and bear assets has soared to nearly 30. It was at approx. 18 at the year 2000 peak.
- Margin debt is at an all time high (approx. 82% above the peak level of 2000 in nominal terms), and investor net worth is concurrently at an all time low, in spite of soaring asset prices (people have borrowed so much to buy stocks, that they have record negative net worth in spite of the SPX nearly at 2200 and the NAZ at a new ATH.
- If the CAPE (Shiller P/E) and Tobin’s Q ratio were to peak here, it would be their fourth, resp. second highest peaks in history (since at least 1876, so we may assume all of history, as markets never got this overvalued prior to the fiat money era). The previous peaks that were close to the current ones are the who’s who of bad times to invest in stocks, to paraphrase John Hussmann: 1929, 2000 and 2007 – that’s it. No other time in history is comparable.
- The valuation of the median stock and the price/sales ratios are both at all time highs (even exceeding the year 2000 peak, which hitherto stood alone as a monument to stock market insanity).
- The ratio of bullish to bearish advisors in the Investor’s Intelligence survey finally eclipsed the peak of August 1987 last year. The 30-week moving average of the bear percentage is at a 38 year low, while the 200-week moving average of the bear percentage (at 21.44%) is the lowest in the entire history of the survey. There has never been similarly persistent bullishness, which is astonishing in light of the fact that the past 15 years have seen two of the four worst bear markets in history. By the way, all these sentiment-related data are the exact opposite of their readings in 1982, when the secular bull market began. Back then, people were extremely cautious and bearish, in spite of the fact that the market was up nearly 100% from its late 1974 low.
- The ratio of money in retail money funds to market cap is – you guessed it – at an all time low, by a huge margin. It is nearly 50% below the levels recorded in 2000 and 2007. People are evidently convinced that cash is trash.
- The DJIA’s dividend yield has been below 3% for 96% of the time since 1995, i.e., over the past 20.5 years, the dividend yield has been above 3% in only 9 months. Prior to 1995, it managed this feat only in a single month: in September 1929.
- According to Ned Davis, the stock market allocation of US households is at its third highest since 1952 – the only two exceptions are 2000 and 2007 (not the happiest moments in time to be loaded to the gills with stocks).
We continued as follows:
Admittedly, none of this tells us how much bigger the bubble will become. Money supply growth is still fairly brisk (TMS-2 above 8% annualized) and administered interest rates remain at zero, with the Fed evidently scared of the 1937 precedent (their entire policy is informed by a single and highly unusual event in economic history, the Great Depression). It could thus become still crazier.
However, it would be a big mistake to call this bull market “unloved” based on anecdotal data like postings in financial forums. In reality, it is not only one of the most overvalued, but definitely one of the most over-loved markets in history, perhaps even the most over-loved overall. Many will remember the day trading craze and CNBC’s ratings in the late 1990s, and it is true that the underlying mood seems outwardly more subdued this time around (this is no wonder, as many people have a very negative assessment of the real economy. After all, the fact that the BLS is simply not counting people as unemployed once they have been jobless for a certain time period makes them no less unemployed).
Let us not forget though, it is not opinions that count, but human action. And by their actions (as evidenced by the positioning data listed above), investors have never been more certain that a bull market would continue than they are today.
There is certainly no reason to change this assessment, even though there are now signs that the market is getting sufficiently “hated” and oversold in the short term to allow for a bounce. One must not lose sight of the fact though that in spite of the strength in the major indexes, most investors are actually losing money, simply because most stocks are actually in a downtrend since April. Sentiment is simply following prices in other words.
Money Supply Growth
As we frequently point out, there is one reason not to get carried away with bearish projections either, at least not yet – and that is the pace of money supply growth. Below you can see that broad money TMS-2 has been growing at 8.4% annualized as of the end of July, while annualized growth of narrow money M1 has re-accelerated in the week to August 3 to slightly above 10%, after dipping to as low as 6.15% at the end of July. In both cases, growth is mired in a sideways to downtrend though, and may no longer be sufficient to keep the market going higher.
Annual growth of broad money TMS-2 – click to enlarge.
Annual growth of M1 – click to enlarge.
Conclusion
Even if it is short term oversold, this is actually a quite dangerous market – caveat emptor, as they say.
- Bombshell: Clinton E-Mails Were "Classified From The Get-Go", Reuters Says
Just last night, we reported that Hillary Clinton’s campaign had finally admitted that the former First Lady’s private e-mail server – which she used to handle sensitive information while serving as Secretary of State – did indeed contain documents that have since been marked classified.
The admission comes after Clinton sought to appease GOP lawmakers by turning over her personal server to the FBI. Subsequently, reports suggested the server had been wiped clean while an audit of the e-mails Clinton handed in to the State Department showed that some of the threads looked to contain chatter about the CIA’s drone program.
Clinton’s defense – until now anyway – is that regardless of whether some of the information was retroactively stamped “classified”, it wasn’t marked as such at the time it was sent and received and therefore, no classified information was stored on her private server. As we’ve noted, those with a security clearance are expected to exercise the highest discretion when it comes to their handling of sensitive information and as such, Clinton should have been more careful. Here’s what we said on Thursday:
While it’s certainly disconcerting that the nation’s one-time top diplomat was sending and receiving sensitive information over an unsecure private e-mail server, the issue for Clinton – because it would probably be naive to think that anyone besides voters will actually hold her accountable – is that her handling of the ordeal has served to reinforce the perception that she’s too arrogant and untrustworthy to be given the reins to the country.
That is, the public was already wary of electing yet another member of America’s political aristocracy (or oligarchy, if you will) and the fact that Clinton apparently expects Americans to believe that she had no idea the information she was receiving on her home server might one day be deemed classified (even though she’s been privy to such information in various capacities for decades) seems to underscore her arrogance and highlight her propensity to, as Jean Claude-Juncker famously put it, lie when “things become serious.”
Now, according to Reuters, Clinton’s last line of defense – that anything which is now marked “classified” wasn’t designated as such initially – may be in question. Here’s the story:
For months, the U.S. State Department has stood behind its former boss Hillary Clinton as she has repeatedly said she did not send or receive classified information on her unsecured, private email account, a practice the government forbids.
While the department is now stamping a few dozen of the publicly released emails as “Classified,” it stresses this is not evidence of rule-breaking.
Those stamps are new, it says, and do not mean the information was classified when Clinton, the Democratic frontrunner in the 2016 presidential election, first sent or received it.
But the details included in those “Classified” stamps — which include a string of dates, letters and numbers describing the nature of the classification — appear to undermine this account, a Reuters examination of the emails and the relevant regulations has found.
The new stamps indicate that some of Clinton’s emails from her time as the nation’s most senior diplomat are filled with a type of information the U.S. government and the department’s own regulations automatically deems classified from the get-go — regardless of whether it is already marked that way or not.
In the small fraction of emails made public so far, Reuters has found at least 30 email threads from 2009, representing scores of individual emails, that include what the State Department’s own “Classified” stamps now identify as so-called ‘foreign government information.’ The U.S. government defines this as any information, written or spoken, provided in confidence to U.S. officials by their foreign counterparts.
This sort of information, which the department says Clinton both sent and received in her emails, is the only kind that must be “presumed” classified, in part to protect national security and the integrity of diplomatic interactions, according to U.S. regulations examined by Reuters.
“It’s born classified,” said J. William Leonard, a former director of the U.S. government’s Information Security Oversight Office (ISOO). Leonard was director of ISOO, part of the White House’s National Archives and Records Administration, from 2002 until 2008, and worked for both the Bill Clinton and George W. Bush administrations.
“If a foreign minister just told the secretary of state something in confidence, by U.S. rules that is classified at the moment it’s in U.S. channels and U.S. possession,” he said in a telephone interview, adding that for the State Department to say otherwise was “blowing smoke.”
We’re sure they’ll be far more on this to come, and while American voters are by now very much used to having “smoke” blown at them on the campaign trail, the poll numbers for Donald Trump (and, incidentally, for dark horse candidate “Deez Nuts“) would seem to suggest that the public’s patience with being lied to by America’s political aristocracy may have run out.
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