• "Covid-19 Is An Exponential Threat" – Why Global Politicians & Business Leaders Must Act Now
  “Covid-19 Is An Exponential Threat” – Why Global Politicians & Business Leaders Must Act Now

  Authored by Tomas Pueyo via Medium.com,

  With everything that’s happening about the Coronavirus, it might be very hard to make a decision of what to do today. Should you wait for more information? Do something today? What?

  Here’s what I’m going to cover in this article, with lots of charts, data and models with plenty of sources:

  • How many cases of coronavirus will there be in your area?

  • What will happen when these cases materialize?

  • What should you do?

  • When?

  When you’re done reading the article, this is what you’ll take away:

  • The coronavirus is coming to you.

  • It’s coming at an exponential speed: gradually, and then suddenly.

  • It’s a matter of days. Maybe a week or two.

  • When it does, your healthcare system will be overwhelmed.

  • Your fellow citizens will be treated in the hallways.

  • Exhausted healthcare workers will break down. Some will die.

  • They will have to decide which patient gets the oxygen and which one dies.

  • The only way to prevent this is social distancing today. Not tomorrow. Today.

  • That means keeping as many people home as possible, starting now.

  As a politician, community leader or business leader, you have the power and the responsibility to prevent this.

  You might have fears today: What if I overreact? Will people laugh at me? Will they be angry at me? Will I look stupid? Won’t it be better to wait for others to take steps first? Will I hurt the economy too much?

  But in 2–4 weeks, when the entire world is in lockdown, when the few precious days of social distancing you will have enabled will have saved lives, people won’t criticize you anymore: They will thank you for making the right decision.

  Ok, let’s do this.

  1. How Many Cases of Coronavirus Will There Be in Your Area?

  Country Growth

  The total number of cases grew exponentially until China contained it.

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  But then, it leaked outside, and now it’s a pandemic that nobody can stop.

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  As of today, this is mostly due to Italy, Iran and South Korea:

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  There are so many cases in South Korea, Italy and Iran that it’s hard to see the rest of the countries, but let’s zoom in on that corner at the bottom right.

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  There are dozens of countries with exponential growth rates. As of today, most of them are Western.

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  If you keep up with that type of growth rate for just a week, this is what you get:

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  If you want to understand what will happen, or how to prevent it, you need to look at the cases that have already gone through this: China, Eastern countries with SARS experience, and Italy.

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  China

  Source: Tomas Pueyo analysis over chart from the Journal of the American Medical Association, based on raw case data from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention

  This is one of the most important charts.

  It shows in orange bars the daily official number of cases in the Hubei province: How many people were diagnosed that day.

  The grey bars show the true daily coronavirus cases. The Chinese CDC found these by asking patients during the diagnostic when their symptoms started.

  Crucially, these true cases weren’t known at the time. We can only figure them out looking backwards: The authorities don’t know that somebody just started having symptoms. They know when somebody goes to the doctor and gets diagnosed.

  What this means is that the orange bars show you what authorities knew, and the grey ones what was really happening.

  On January 21st, the number of new diagnosed cases (orange) is exploding: there are around 100 new cases. In reality, there were 1,500 new cases that day, growing exponentially. But the authorities didn’t know that. What they knew was that suddenly there were 100 new cases of this new illness.

  Two days later, authorities shut down Wuhan. At that point, the number of diagnosed daily new cases was ~400. Note that number: they made a decision to close the city with just 400 new cases in a day. In reality, there were 2,500 new cases that day, but they didn’t know that.

  The day after, another 15 cities in Hubei shut down.

  Up until Jan 23rd, when Wuhan closes, you can look at the grey graph: it’s growing exponentially. True cases were exploding. As soon as Wuhan shuts down, cases slow down. On Jan 24th, when another 15 cities shut down, the number of true cases (again, grey) grinds to a halt. Two days later, the maximum number of true cases was reached, and it has gone down ever since.

  Note that the orange (official) cases were still growing exponentially: For 12 more days, it looked like this thing was still exploding. But it wasn’t. It’s just that the cases were getting stronger symptoms and going to the doctor more, and the system to identify them was stronger.

  This concept of official and true cases is important. Let’s keep it in mind for later.

  The rest of regions in China were well coordinated by the central government, so they took immediate and drastic measures. This is the result:

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  Every flat line is a Chinese region with coronavirus cases. Each one had the potential to become exponential, but thanks to the measures happening just at the end of January, all of them stopped the virus before it could spread.

  Meanwhile, South Korea, Italy and Iran had a full month to learn, but didn’t. They started the same exponential growth of Hubei and passed every other Chinese region before the end of February.

  Eastern Countries

  South Korea cases have exploded, but have you wondered why Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, Thailand or Hong Kong haven’t?

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  Taiwan didn’t even make it to this graph because it didn’t have the 50 cases threshold that I used.

  All of them were hit by SARS in 2003, and all of them learned from it. They learned how viral and lethal it could be, so they knew to take it seriously. That’s why all of their graphs, despite starting to grow much earlier, still don’t look like exponentials.

  So far, we have stories of coronavirus exploding, governments realizing the threat, and containing them. For the rest of the countries, however, it’s a completely different story.

  Before I jump to them, a note about South Korea: The country is probably an outlier. The coronavirus was contained for the first 30 cases. Patient 31 was a super-spreader who passed it to thousands of other people. Because the virus spreads before people show symptoms, by the time the authorities realized the issue, the virus was out there. They’re now paying the consequences of that one instance. Their containment efforts show, however: Italy has already passed it in numbers of cases, and Iran will pass it tomorrow (3/10/2020).

  Washington State

  You’ve already seen the growth in Western countries, and how bad forecasts of just one week look like. Now imagine that containment doesn’t happen like in Wuhan or in other Eastern countries, and you get a colossal epidemic.

  Let’s look at a few cases, such as Washington State, the San Francisco Bay Area, Paris and Madrid.

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  Washington State is the US’s Wuhan.The number of cases there is growing exponentially. It’s currently at 140.

  But something interesting happened early on. The death rate was through the roof. At some point, the state had 3 cases and one death.

  We know from other places that the death rate of the coronavirus is anything between 0.5% and 5% (more on that later). How could the death rate be 33%?

  It turned out that the virus had been spreading undetected for weeks. It’s not like there were only 3 cases. It’s that authorities only knew about 3, and one of them was dead because the more serious the condition, the more likely somebody is to be tested.

  This is a bit like the orange and grey bars in China: Here they only knew about the orange bars (official cases) and they looked good: just 3. But in reality, there were hundreds, maybe thousands of true cases.

  This is an issue: You only know the official cases, not the true ones. But you need to know the true ones. How can you estimate the true ones? It turns out, there’s a couple of ways. And I have a model for both, so you can play with the numbers too (direct link to copy of the model).

  First, through deaths. If you have deaths in your region, you can use that to guess the number of true current cases. We know approximately how long it takes for that person to go from catching the virus to dying on average (17.3 days). That means the person who died on 2/29 in Washington State probably got infected around 2/12.

  Then, you know the mortality rate. For this scenario, I’m using 1% (we’ll discuss later the details). That means that, around 2/12, there were already around ~100 cases in the area (of which only one ended up in death 17.3 days later).

  Now, use the average doubling time for the coronavirus (time it takes to double cases, on average). It’s 6.2. That means that, in the 17 days it took this person to die, the cases had to multiply by ~8 (=2^(17/6)). That means that, if you are not diagnosing all cases, one death today means 800 true cases today.

  Washington state has today 22 deaths. With that quick calculation, you get ~16,000 true coronavirus cases today. As many as the official cases in Italy and Iran combined.

  If we look into the detail, we realize that 19 of these deaths were from one cluster, which might not have spread the virus widely. So if we consider those 19 deaths as one, the total deaths in the state is four. Updating the model with that number, we still get ~3,000 cases today.

  This approach from Trevor Bedford looks at the viruses themselves and their mutations to assess the current case count.

  An update about what we’re able to infer about the Washington State #COVID19 outbreak from screening and viral sequencing by @UWVirology and @seattleflustudy. 1/12

  — Trevor Bedford (@trvrb) March 10, 2020

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  The conclusion is that there are likely ~1,100 cases in Washington state right now.

  None of these approaches are perfect, but they all point to the same message: We don’t know the number of true cases, but it’s much higher than the official one. It’s not in the hundreds. It’s in the thousands, maybe more.

  San Francisco Bay Area

  Until 3/8, the Bay Area didn’t have any death. That made it hard to know how many true cases there were. Officially, there were 86 cases. But the US is vastly undertesting because it doesn’t have enough kits. The country decided to create their own test kit, which turned out not to work.

  These were the number of tests carried out in different countries by March 3rd:

  Sources for each number here

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  Turkey, with no cases of coronavirus, had 10 times the testing per inhabitant than the US. The situation is not much better today, with ~8,000 tests performed in the US, which means ~4,000 people have been tested.

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  Here, you can just use a share of official cases to true cases. How to decide which one? For the Bay Area, they were testing everybody who had traveled or was in contact with a traveler, which means that they knew most of the travel-related cases, but none of the community spread cases. By having a sense of community spread vs. travel spread, you can know how many true cases there are.

  I looked at that ratio for South Korea, which has great data. By the time they had 86 cases, the % of them from community spread was 86% (86 and 86% are a coincidence).

  With that number, you can calculate the number of true cases. If the Bay Area has 86 cases today, it is likely that the true number is ~600.

  France and Paris

  France claims 1,400 cases today and 30 deaths. Using the two methods above, you can have a range of cases: between 24,000 and 140,000.

  The true number of coronavirus cases in France today is likely to be between 24,000 and 140,000.

  Let me repeat that: the number of true cases in France is likely to be between one and two orders or magnitude higher than it is officially reported.

  Don’t believe me? Let’s look at the Wuhan graph again.

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  Source: Tomas Pueyo analysis over chart and data from the Journal of the American Medical Association

  If you stack up the orange bars until 1/22, you get 444 cases. Now add up all the grey bars. They add up to ~12,000 cases. So when Wuhan thought it had 444 cases, it had 27 times more. If France thinks it has 1,400 cases, it might well have tens of thousands

  The same math applies to Paris. With ~30 cases inside the city, the true number of cases is likely to be in the hundreds, maybe thousands. With 300 cases in the Ile-de-France region, the total cases in the region might already exceed tens of thousands.

  Spain and Madrid

  Spain has very similar numbers as France (1,200 cases vs. 1,400, and both have 30 deaths). That means the same rules are valid: Spain has probably upwards of 20k true cases already.

  In the Comunidad de Madrid region, with 600 official cases and 17 deaths, the true number of cases is likely between 10,000 and 60,000.

  If you read these data and tell yourself: “Impossible, this can’t be true”, just think this: With this number of cases, Wuhan was already in lockdown.

  With the number of cases we see today in countries like the US, Spain, France, Iran, Germany, Japan, Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden or Switzerland, Wuhan was already in lockdown.

  And if you’re telling yourself: “Well, Hubei is just one region”, let me remind you that it has nearly 60 million people, bigger than Spain and about the size of France.

  2. What Will Happen When These Coronavirus Cases Materialize?

  So the coronavirus is already here. It’s hidden, and it’s growing exponentially.

  What will happen in our countries when it hits? It’s easy to know, because we already have several places where it’s happening. The best examples are Hubei and Italy.

  Fatality Rates

  The World Health Organization (WHO) quotes 3.4% as the fatality rate (% people who contract the coronavirus and then die). This number is out of context so let me explain it.

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  It really depends on the country and the moment: between 0.6% in South Korea and 4.4% in Iran. So what is it? We can use a trick to figure it out.

  The two ways you can calculate the fatality rate is Deaths/Total Cases and Death/Closed Cases. The first one is likely to be an underestimate, because lots of open cases can still end up in death. The second is an overestimate, because it’s likely that deaths are closed quicker than recoveries.

  What I did was look at how both evolve over time. Both of these numbers will converge to the same result once all cases are closed, so if you project past trends to the future, you can make a guess on what the final fatality rate will be.

  This is what you see in the data. China’s fatality rate is now between 3.6% and 6.1%. If you project that in the future, it looks like it converges towards ~3.8%-4%. This is double the current estimate, and 30 times worse than the flu.

  It is made up of two completely different realities though: Hubei and the rest of China.

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  Hubei’s fatality rate will probably converge towards 4.8%. Meanwhile, for the rest of China, it will likely converge to ~0.9%:

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  I also charted the numbers for Iran, Italy and South Korea, the only countries with enough deaths to make this somewhat relevant.

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  Iran’s and Italy’s Deaths / Total Cases are both converging towards the 3%-4% range. My guess is their numbers will end up around that figure too.

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  South Korea is the most interesting example, because these 2 numbers are completely disconnected: deaths / total cases is only 0.6%, but deaths / closed cases is a whopping 48%. My take on it is that a few unique things are happening there. First, they’re testing everybody (with so many open cases, the death rate seems low), and leaving the cases open for longer (so they close cases quickly when the patient is dead). Second, they have a lot of hospital beds (see chart 17.b). There might also be other reasons we don’t know. What is relevant is that deaths/cases has hovered around 0.5% since the beginning, suggesting it will stay there, likely heavily influenced by the healthcare system and crisis management.

  The last relevant example is the Diamond Princess cruise: with 706 cases, 6 deaths and 100 recoveries, the fatality rate will be between 1% and 6.5%.

  Note that the age distribution in each country will also have an impact: Since mortality is much higher for older people, countries with an aging population like Japan will be harder hit on average than younger countries like Nigeria. There are also weather factors, especially humidity and temperature, but it’s still unclear how this will impact transmission and fatality rates.

  This is what you can conclude:

  • Excluding these, countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of ~0.5% (South Korea) to 0.9% (rest of China).

  • Countries that are overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between ~3%-5%

  Put in another way: Countries that act fast can reduce the number of deaths by a factor of ten. And that’s just counting the fatality rate. Acting fast also drastically reduces the cases, making this even more of a no-brainer.

  Countries that act fast reduce the number of deaths at least by 10x.

  So what does a country need to be prepared?

  What Will Be the Pressure on the System

  Around 20% of cases require hospitalization, 5% of cases require the Intensive Care Unit (ICU), and around 2.5% require very intensive help, with items such as ventilators or ECMO (extra-corporeal oxygenation).

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  The problem is that items such as ventilators and ECMO can’t be produced or bought easily. A few years ago, the US had a total of 250 ECMO machines, for example.

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  So if you suddenly have 100,000 people infected, many of them will want to go get tested. Around 20,000 will require hospitalization, 5,000 will need the ICU, and 1,000 will need machines that we don’t have enough of today. And that’s just with 100,000 cases.

  That is without taking into account issues such as masks. A country like the US has only 1% of the masks it needs to cover the needs of its healthcare workers (12M N95, 30M surgical vs. 3.5B needed). If a lot of cases appear at once, there will be masks for only 2 weeks.

  Countries like Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong or Singapore, as well as Chinese regions outside of Hubei, have been prepared and given the care that patients need.

  But the rest of Western countries are rather going in the direction of Hubei and Italy. So what is happening there?

  What an Overwhelmed Healthcare System Looks Like

  The stories that happened in Hubei and those in Italy are starting to become eerily similar. Hubei built two hospitals in ten days, but even then, it was completely overwhelmed.

  Both complained that patients inundated their hospitals. They had to be taken care of anywhere: in hallways, in waiting rooms…

  From a well respected friend and intensivist/A&E consultant who is currently in northern Italy:
  1/ ‘I feel the pressure to give you a quick personal update about what is happening in Italy, and also give some quick direct advice about what you should do.

  — Jason Van Schoor (@jasonvanschoor) March 9, 2020

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  I heavily recommend this short Twitter thread. It paints a pretty stark picture of Italy today

  Healthcare workers spend hours in a single piece of protective gear, because there’s not enough of them. As a result, they can’t leave the infected areas for hours. When they do, they crumble, dehydrated and exhausted. Shifts don’t exist anymore. People are driven back from retirement to cover needs. People who have no idea about nursing are trained overnight to fulfill critical roles. Everybody is on call, always.

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  Francesca Mangiatordi, an Italian nurse that crumbled in the middle of the war with the Coronavirus

  That is, until they become sick. Which happens a lot, because they’re in constant exposure to the virus, without enough protective gear. When that happens, they need to be in quarantine for 14 days, during which they can’t help. Best case scenario, 2 weeks are lost. Worst case, they’re dead.

  The worst is in the ICUs, when patients need to share ventilators or ECMOs. These are in fact impossible to share, so the healthcare workers must determine what patient will use it. That really means, which one lives and which one dies.

  “After a few days, we have to choose. […] Not everyone can be intubated. We decide based on age and state of health.” —Christian Salaroli, Italian MD.

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  Medical workers wear protective suits to attend to people sickened by the novel coronavirus, in the intensive care unit of a designated hospital in Wuhan, China, on Feb. 6. (China Daily/Reuters), via Washington Post

  All of this is what drives a system to have a fatality rate of ~4% instead of ~0.5%. If you want your city or your country to be part of the 4%, don’t do anything today.

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  Satellite images show Behesht Masoumeh cemetery in the Iranian city of Qom. Photograph: ©2020 Maxar Technologies. Via The Guardian and the The New York Times.

  3. What Should You Do?

  Flatten the Curve

  This is a pandemic now. It can’t be eliminated. But what we can do is reduce its impact.

  Some countries have been exemplary at this. The best one is Taiwan, which is extremely connected with China and yet still has as of today fewer than 50 cases. This recent paper explain all the measures they took early on, which were focused on containment.

  They have been able to contain it, but most countries lacked this expertise and didn’t. Now, they’re playing a different game: mitigation. They need to make this virus as inoffensive as possible.

  If we reduce the infections as much as possible, our healthcare system will be able to handle cases much better, driving the fatality rate down. And, if we spread this over time, we will reach a point where the rest of society can be vaccinated, eliminating the risk altogether. So our goal is not to eliminate coronavirus contagions. It’s to postpone them.

  

  Source

  The more we postpone cases, the better the healthcare system can function, the lower the mortality rate, and the higher the share of the population that will be vaccinated before it gets infected.

  How do we flatten the curve?

  Social Distancing

  There is one very simple thing that we can do and that works: social distancing.

  If you go back to the Wuhan graph, you will remember that as soon as there was a lockdown, cases went down. That’s because people didn’t interact with each other, and the virus didn’t spread.

  The current scientific consensus is that this virus can be spread within 2 meters (6 feet) if somebody coughs. Otherwise, the droplets fall to the ground and don’t infect you.

  The worst infection then becomes through surfaces: The virus survives for up to 9 days on different surfaces such as metal, ceramics and plastics. That means things like doorknobs, tables, or elevator buttons can be terrible infection vectors.

  The only way to truly reduce that is with social distancing: Keeping people home as much as possible, for as long as possible until this recedes.

  This has already been proven in the past. Namely, in the 1918 flu pandemic.

  Learnings from the 1918 Flu Pandemic

  You can see how Philadelphia didn’t act quickly, and had a massive peak in death rates. Compare that with St Louis, which did.

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  Then look at Denver, which enacted measures and then loosened them. They had a double peak, with the 2nd one higher than the first.

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  If you generalize, this is what you find:

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  This chart shows, for the 1918 flu in the US, how many more deaths there were per city depending on how fast measures were taken. For example, a city like St Louis took measures 6 days before Pittsburgh, and had less than half the deaths per citizen. On average, taking measures 20 days earlier halved the death rate.

  Italy has finally figured this out. They first locked down Lombardy on Sunday, and one day later, on Monday, they realized their mistake and decided they had to lock down the entire country.

  Hopefully, we will see results in the coming days. However, it will take one to two weeks to see. Remember the Wuhan graph: there was a delay of 12 days between the moment when the lockdown was announced and the moment when official cases (orange) started going down.

  How Can Politicians Contribute to Social Distancing?

  The question politicians are asking themselves today is not whether they should do something, but rather what’s the appropriate action to take.

  There are several stages to control an epidemic, starting with anticipation and ending with eradication. But it’s too late for most options today. With this level of cases, the two only options politicians have in front of them are containment and mitigation.

  Containment

  Containment is making sure all the cases are identified, controlled, and isolated. It’s what Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan or Taiwan are doing so well: They very quickly limit people coming in, identify the sick, immediately isolate them, use heavy protective gear to protect their health workers, track all their contacts, quarantine them… This works extremely well when you’re prepared and you do it early on, and don’t need to grind your economy to a halt to make it happen.

  I’ve already touted Taiwan’s approach. But China’s is good too. The lengths at which it went to contain the virus are mind-boggling. For example, they had up to 1,800 teams of 5 people each tracking every infected person, everybody they got interacted with, then everybody those people interacted with, and isolating the bunch. That’s how they were able to contain the virus across a billion-people country.

  This is not what Western countries have done. And now it’s too late. The recent US announcement that most travel from Europe was banned is a containment measure for a country that has, as of today, 3 times the cases that Hubei had when it shut down, growing exponentially. How can we know if it’s enough? It turns out, we can know by looking at the Wuhan travel ban.

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  Link to source

  This chart shows the impact that the Wuhan travel ban had delaying the epidemic. The bubble sizes show the number of daily cases. The top line shows the cases if nothing is done. The two other lines show the impact if 40% and 90% of travel is eliminated. This is a model created by epidemiologists, because we can’t know for sure.

  If you don’t see much difference, you’re right. It’s very hard to see any change in the development of the epidemic.

  Researchers estimate that, all in all, the Wuhan travel ban only delayed the spread in China by 3–5 days.

  Now what did researchers think the impact of reducing transmission would be?

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  The top bloc is the same as the one you’ve seen before. The two other blocks show decreasing transmission rates. If the transmission rate goes down by 25% (through Social Distancing), it flattens the curve and delays the peak by a whole 14 weeks. Lower the transition rate by 50%, and you can’t see the epidemic even starting within a quarter.

  The US administration’s ban on European travel is good: It has probably bought us a few hours, maybe a day or two. But not more. It is not enough. It’s containment when what’s needed is mitigation.

  Once there are hundreds or thousands of cases growing in the population, preventing more from coming, tracking the existing ones and isolating their contacts isn’t enough anymore. The next level is mitigation.

  Mitigation

  Mitigation requires heavy social distancing. People need to stop hanging out to drop the transmission rate (R), from the R=~2–3 that the virus follows without measures, to below 1, so that it eventually dies out.

  These measures require closing companies, shops, mass transit, schools, enforcing lockdowns… The worse your situation, the worse the social distancing. The earlier you impose heavy measures, the less time you need to keep them, the easier it is to identify brewing cases, and the fewer people get infected.

  This is what Wuhan had to do. This is what Italy was forced to accept. Because when the virus is rampant, the only measure is to lock down all the infected areas to stop spreading it at once.

  With thousands of official cases — and tens of thousands of true ones — this is what countries like Iran, France, Spain, Germany, Switzerland or the US need to do.

  But they’re not doing it.

  Some business are working from home, which is fantastic.
  Some mass events are being stopped.
  Some affected areas are in quarantining themselves.

  All these measures will slow down the virus. They will lower the transmission rate from 2.5 to 2.2, maybe 2. But they aren’t enough to get us below 1 for a sustained period of time to stop the epidemic. And if we can’t do that, we need to get it as close to 1 for as long as possible, to flatten the curve.

  So the question becomes: What are the tradeoffs we could be making to lower the R? This is the menu that Italy has put in front of all of us:

  • Nobody can enter or exit lockdown areas, unless there are proven family or work reasons.

  • Movement inside the areas is to be avoided, unless they are justified for urgent personal or work reasons and can’t be postponed.

  • People with symptoms (respiratory infection and fever) are “highly recommended” to remain home.

  • Standard time off for healthcare workers is suspended

  • Closure of all educational establishments (schools, universities…), gyms, museums, ski stations, cultural and social centers, swimming pools, and theaters.

  • Bars and restaurants have limited opening times from 6am to 6pm, with at least one meter (~3 feet) distance between people.

  • All pubs and clubs must close.

  • All commercial activity must keep a distance of one meter between customers. Those that can’t make it happen must close. Temples can remain open as long as they can guarantee this distance.

  • Family and friends hospital visits are limited

  • Work meetings must be postponed. Work from home must be encouraged.

  • All sports events and competitions, public or private, are canceled. Important events can be held under closed doors.

  Then two days later, they added: No, in fact, you need to close all businesses that aren’t crucial. So now we’re closing all commercial activities, offices, cafes and shops. Only transportation, pharmacies, groceries will remain open.”

  One approach is to gradually increase measures. Unfortunately, that gives precious time for the virus to spread. If you want to be safe, do it Wuhan style. People might complain now, but they’ll thank you later.

  How Can Business Leaders Contribute to Social Distancing?

  If you’re a business leader and you want to know what you should do, the best resource for you is Staying Home Club.

  It is a list of social distancing policies that have been enacted by US tech companies—so far, 328.

  They range from allowed to required Work From Home, and restricted visits, travel, or events.

  There are more things that every company must determine, such as what to do with hourly workers, whether to keep the office open or not, how to conduct interviews, what to do with the cafeterias… If you want to know how my company, Course Hero, handled some of these, along with a model announcement to your employees, here is the one my company used (view only version here).

  4. When?

  It is very possible that so far you’ve agreed with everything I’ve said, and were just wondering since the beginning when to make each decision. Put in another way, what triggers should we have for each measure.

  It enables you to assess the likely number of cases in your area, the probability that your employees are already infected, how that evolves over time, and how that should tell you whether to remain open.

  It tells us things like:

  • If your company had 100 employees in the Washington state area, which had 11 coronavirus deaths on 3/8, there was a 25% chance at least one of your employees was infected, and you should have closed immediately.

  • If your company had 250 employees mostly in the South Bay (San Mateo and Santa Clara counties, which together had 22 official cases on 3/8 and the true number was probably at least 54), by 3/9 you would have had ~2% chances to have at least one employee infected, and you should have closed your office too.

  • [Updated as of 3/12] If your company is in Paris (intramuros), and it has 250 employees, today there’s a 95% chance that one of your employees has the coronavirus, and you should close your office by tomorrow.

  The model uses labels such as “company” and “employee”, but the same model can be used for anything else: schools, mass transit… So if you have only 50 employees in Paris, but all of them are going to take the train, coming across thousands of other people, suddenly the likelihood that at least one of them will get infected is much higher and you should close your office immediately.

  If you’re still hesitating because nobody is showing symptoms, just realize 26% of contagions happen before there are symptoms.

  Are You Part of a Group of Leaders?

  This math is selfish. It looks at every company’s risk individually, taking as much risk as we want until the inevitable hammer of the coronavirus closes our offices.

  But if you’re part of a league of business leaders or politicians, your calculations are not for just one company, but for the whole. The math becomes: What’s the likelihood that any of our companies is infected? If you’re a group of 50 companies of 250 employees on average, in the SF Bay Area, there’s a 35% chance that at least one of the companies has an employee infected, and 97% chance that will be true next week. I added a tab in the model to play with that.

  Conclusion: The Cost of Waiting

  It might feel scary to make a decision today, but you shouldn’t think about it this way.

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  This theoretical model shows different communities: one doesn’t take social distancing measures, one takes them on Day n of an outbreak, the other one on Day n+1. All the numbers are completely fictitious (I chose them to resemble what happened in Hubei, with ~6k daily new cases at the worst). They’re just there to illustrate how important a single day can be in something that grows exponentially. You can see that the one-day delay peaks later and higher, but then daily cases converge to zero.

  But what about cumulative cases?

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  In this theoretical model that resembles loosely Hubei, waiting one more day creates 40% more cases! So, maybe, if the Hubei authorities had declared the lockdown on 1/22 instead of 1/23, they might have reduced the number of cases by a staggering 20k.

  And remember, these are just cases. Mortality would be much higher, because not only would there be directly 40% more deaths. There would also be a much higher collapse of the healthcare system, leading to a mortality rate up to 10x higher as we saw before. So a one-day difference in social distancing measures can end exploding the number of deaths in your community by multiplying more cases and higher fatality rate.

  This is an exponential threat. Every day counts. When you’re delaying by a single day a decision, you’re not contributing to a few cases maybe. There are probably hundreds or thousands of cases in your community already. Every day that there isn’t social distancing, these cases grow exponentially.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 03/14/2020 – 00:05

• The State Of Freedom Worldwide
  The State Of Freedom Worldwide

  Democratic watchdog organization Freedom House has released its annual ranking of the world’s most free and the world’s most suppressed nations.

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  As Statista’s Niall McCarthy notes, for the 14th year in a row, global freedom has been found to have declined. 64 countries experienced a decline in freedom with only 37 making a move in the right direction. In a particularly worrying development, Freedom House found that 25 out of 41 “established democracies” have also experienced net losses in democracy since 2006.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  The United States enjoyed similar levels of freedom to Switzerland and the United Kingdom a decade ago but it has experienced a decline and is now ranked behind Greece and Slovakia while it remains marginally ahead of Argentina and Croatia. Freedom House blamed the policies of the Trump administration for the slide, stating that it has failed to exhibit consistent commitment to a foreign policy based on the principles of democracy and human rights.

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  The highest-ranked countries this year are Finland, Norway and Sweden while the the Netherlands, Canada, Ireland, Australia and New Zealand were also among the top scorers.

  In total, 49 countries fell into the “not free” category with Syria at the very bottom. Turkmenistan, Eritrea, North Korea, South Korea and Somalia are also among the worst-ranked countries.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 03/13/2020 – 23:45

• Psychologist: Big Tech Will Use "Subliminal Methods" To Shift 15 Million Votes On Election Day
  Psychologist: Big Tech Will Use “Subliminal Methods” To Shift 15 Million Votes On Election Day

  Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

  Psychologist Robert Epstein says that Big Tech is planning to use “subliminal methods” in the upcoming election that could shift up to 15 million votes and cost Trump the presidency.

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  After the 2016 presidential election, Epstein surmised that search engine bias shifted 2-3 million votes in Hillary Clinton’s favor, and he warns that the number in 2020 could be five times that amount.

  The author says that Google and other social media giants “can shift opinions and votes in numerous ways that people can’t detect” via “a wide variety of subliminal methods of persuasion that can, in minutes, shift the voting preferences of 20 percent or more of undecided voters without anyone having the slightest idea they’ve been manipulated.”

  A leak of Google emails to the Wall Street Journal back in 2018 already exposed how Google engineers had sought to investigate how they could manipulate a user’s “ephemeral experiences” to change their mind on the Trump travel ban.

  “Ephemeral experiences are those fleeting ones we have every day when we view online content that’s generated on-the-fly and isn’t stored anywhere: newsfeeds, search suggestions, search results, and so on,” writes Epstein.

  “No authority can go back in time to see what search suggestions or search results you were shown, but dozens of randomized, controlled, double-blind experiments I’ve conducted show that such content can dramatically shift opinions and voting preferences. See the problem?”

  Google, Twitter and Facebook have complete control over what is seen and what is allowed to go viral, Epstein emphasizes, making it completely pointless to produce political ads if you cannot prevent algorithmic manipulation.

  “If our own tech companies all favor the same presidential candidate this year—and that seems likely—I calculate that they can easily shift 15 million votes to that candidate without people knowing and without leaving a paper trail,” warns Epstein.

  He also notes how the the “technological elite” Eisenhower warned about in his 1961 farewell address is now in control, underscored by the fact that “95 percent of donations from tech companies and their employees go to Democrats.”

  Epstein says the only way to prevent all this is aggressive monitoring of algorithmic manipulation.

  “When bias is detected that has the potential to shift votes, it needs to be reported immediately to the media, the Federal Election Commission, members of Congress, and other authorities,” he writes.

  “That will force the tech execs to back off; if they don’t, they’ll be risking humiliation, fines, and, quite possibly, criminal prosecution.”

  Despite highlighting the issue for years, Republicans have done next to nothing to address social media censorship and algorithm manipulation. Numerous major boosters of President Trump during the 2016 election have also been completely banned on social media.

  Pointing out that the margin of victory in many nationwide races is as little as 5 per cent, Epstein cautions, “Republicans, in general, are likely to lose.”

  Epstein also emphasized that given his knowledge about what Big Tech are planning, he is “not suicidal.”

  This is particularly noteworthy given that the psychologist previously suggested that his wife’s fatal car crash may not have been accidental.

  *  *  *

  My voice is being silenced by free speech-hating Silicon Valley behemoths who want me disappeared forever. It is CRUCIAL that you support me. Please sign up for the free newsletter here. Donate to me on SubscribeStar here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 03/13/2020 – 23:25

• "It's Terrible": NYC Restaurants Shocked With "Mass Event Cancellations" As Virus Fears Grow
  “It’s Terrible”: NYC Restaurants Shocked With “Mass Event Cancellations” As Virus Fears Grow

  We already wrote weeks ago about how the coronavirus was wreaking havoc among Chinese business owners in various cities across the U.S.

  Since then, fear of the virus has been ramped up significantly, and so it should come as no surprise that people are starting to cancel events at NYC restaurants en masse, according to Eater. 

  Restaurants across NYC are reporting that parties are being cancelled and business is “seeing dips” since the first confirmed coronavirus case in NYC last week. And if we were willing to bet, those would not be “dips” you’d want to buy. It’ll likely get worse.

  As of Monday, there were 19 confirmed cases in the city and many corporate offices are encouraging employees to work from home. Hotels and restaurants are getting hit the hardest. One restaurant owner, Tom Colicchio, says his revenue is down “as much as 70%”. The NYC Hospitality alliance says it’s seen a “big drop” in business. 

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  Another restaurantuer, Michael Sinensky, founder of Simple Venue, a hospitality group that runs Sushi by Bae and Sushi by Bou, says sales have dropped off by as much as 25% and he’s expecting it to continue for “several weeks”. 

  Additionally, fewer companies are booking events for the spring. Colicchio said: “It’s terrible. It’s just an unknown here. You have no idea how long it’s going to last. It’s hard to get in front of … who knows when things will go back to normal?”

  Restaurants that rely on large parties are also seeing declines in foot traffic. Xi’an Famous Foods’s CEO Jason Wang saw a 20% drop in his locations in Flushing and Chinatown last month. He also says customer foot traffic is lower.

  Owner of East Village Korean restaurant Nowon, Jae Lee, said business started falling about three weeks ago, but has tapered since then. The restaurant group behind Japanese spots like Sobaya said that foot traffic is “visibly lower”. 

  And things aren’t looking optimistic. Not unlike the market itself, this is a dip that may not be getting better anytime soon. Ravi DeRossi — who owns 15 restaurants and bars, said: “Over the weekend, a quarter of reservations canceled day-of, with some saying they’re concerned about being in public places and others worried about not feeling well. This was the first weekend. My feeling is every weekend, it’s going to get worse and worse.”

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  Many restaurants are now dealing with extra precautions for hygiene. More things are getting disinfected, more frequently, according to Eater. One owner says the “unprecedented” situation has them training their staff on how to deal with “fear and panic”. 

  Colicchio’s restaurants are keeping less inventory on hand and holding off on larger purchases for the time being. The Sushi by Bae and Sushi by Bou restaurants are developing a delivery box to try and “balance the business we expect to lose due to the virus panic.”

  DeRossi concluded: “I’ll be honest, I’m a little scared. I’m in the East Village. All it takes is one case. If one restaurant in the East Village says, ‘This person at this restaurant got that,’ and the entire East Village will shut down overnight. I honestly don’t know what to do, other than take every serious precaution that we can.”

  “I think we’re in for a long period of uncertainty right now,” Colicchio added. 

   

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 03/13/2020 – 23:05

• Elon Musk Is Acting Like A Neo-Conquistador For South America's Lithium
  Elon Musk Is Acting Like A Neo-Conquistador For South America’s Lithium

  Authored by Vijay Prashad and Alejandro Bejarno via Counterpunch.org,

  Elon Musk, the head of Tesla, wants to build an electric car factory in Brazil. He was supposed to meet Jair Bolsonaro, the president of Brazil, in Miami in early March, but he was too busy; instead, Musk will go to Brazil sometime this year. All eyes are on the southern Brazilian state of Santa Catarina, whose Secretary of International Affairs Derian Campos is in direct contact with Musk. Two automobile manufacturers – BMW and GM – already have factories in Santa Catarina. Marcos Pontes (Minister of Science, Technology, Innovation, and Communications) held a video conference with Anderson Ricardo Pacheco, a senior Tesla official. They were joined by Daniel Freitas, a congressman, and Claiton Pacheco Galdino, who is the business development director for Criciúma, a city in Santa Catarina. They are eager for Tesla to open a Gigafactory – Tesla’s name for a big factory – in South America’s largest economy.

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  It helps that Brazil has considerable lithium deposits – mostly in the southeastern states of Minas Gerais and Paraíba and in the northeastern states of Ceará and Rio Grande do Norte. The production of lithium is limited, largely having been used for ceramics and glass production.

  The Bolsonaro government is interested in increasing the production of lithium, including as a key raw material for the lithium-ion batteries that power electric cars such as those made by Tesla. But Brazil’s lithium will not be sufficient. Tesla would need to import lithium from elsewhere.

  The Lithium Triangle

  Over 50 percent of the world’s known lithium deposits are in the “Lithium Triangle” – the lithium concentrated brine sources in Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile. Bolivia’s high mountain deserts – the Salar de Uyuni – have by far the largest known reserves of lithium.

  In a bizarre tweet, the Bolivian entrepreneur Samuel Doria Medina wrote that since Elon Musk and Jair Bolsonaro will discuss the Tesla plant in Brazil, they should add to this initiative the following: “build a Gigafactory in the Salar de Uyuni to supply lithium batteries.” Doria Medina is not just an entrepreneur. He is the vice-presidential candidate alongside the “interim president” Jeanine Áñez for the May 3, 2020, Bolivian presidential elections. Áñez came to power only because of the coup d’état against Evo Morales in November 2019. Doria Medina’s welcome mat to Tesla should, therefore, be seen as having the full authority of the coup government behind it.

  Morales’ government had been very cautious with these lithium reserves. It had made clear that these precious resources were not to be turned over to transnational corporations in deals favorable to the firms; what gains come from lithium, Morales had pointed out, must be properly shared with the Bolivian people. The point that Morales’ government made is that any deal must be done with Comibol – Bolivia’s national mining company – and Yacimientos de Litio Bolivianos – Bolivia’s national lithium company. The monetary gains from the mining would come into the Bolivian exchequer and then fund the social programs so necessary for the country. This sensible socialist policy was too much for three major transnational firms – Eramet (France), FMC (United States), and Posco (South Korea) – all three of whom turned tail and went to Argentina.

  The Lithium Coup

  It was Morales’ socialist policy toward Bolivia’s resources that doomed his government. The oligarchy, which was angry with Morales’ government and its socialism, used every mechanism to undermine the election of 2019. Forest fires in the northern and eastern regions of Bolivia provided the oligarchy’s media with the weaponry to suggest that Morales had abandoned his commitment to the environment and to Pachamama (Mother Earth), and that he was now working to benefit the cattle ranchers; it is important to point that this is not only ridiculous, but that as soon as the coup government of Áñez came into office, it passed legislation that allowed the ranchers to extend their lands into forested areas.

  Morales’ opponent – Carlos Mesa – and other senior leaders of the oligarchy’s political parties openly said long before the election that Morales could only win by fraud. A self-proclaimed Council for the Defense of Democracy said that Morales was an illegitimate candidate because he had lost the 2016 constitutional referendum. The media – backed by these corporate and neofascist interests – banged the drum of fraud, while Carlos Mesa – on the night of the election – said that there was “monumental fraud” in the election. These provocations from Mesa, the neofascists, and the corporate elites resulted in street violence; in the midst of this, the police – sections of whom were angry with Morales for cracking down on police corruption – mutinied. The 36 Bolivians who died in the immediate post-election aftermath are victims of Mesa’s incendiary language. The Organization of American States (OAS), egged on by the U.S. government, came up with a “preliminary report” of fraud in the election; the hard conclusions in the report were not substantiated by the data in it. The OAS report played an important role in legitimizing the coup against Morales.

  It is important to point out that there was no controversy about Morales’ election in 2014; in that election, Morales won 61 percent of the votes to defeat the entrepreneur Samuel Doria Medina, who won 24 percent (Doria Medina is the same person who is now running for vice president and welcomes Tesla to Bolivia’s lithium). Morales’ term, from the 2014 election, had not yet expired in November 2019; the removal of Morales then violated the mandate of 2014, a point that has received almost no discussion either inside Bolivia or abroad.

  John Curiel and Jack Williams of the Election Data and Science Lab of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) went over the Bolivian election data and found no fraud: “There is not any statistical evidence of fraud that we can find,” they wrote conclusively in the Washington Post. Curiel and Williams contacted the OAS, but they note, “We and other scholars within the field reached out to the OAS for comment; the OAS did not respond.” By their assessment, Morales won the election in November 2019 and should have been inaugurated this year to a new term.

  Terrible pressure by the coup government against the party of Morales (the Movement for Socialism, or MAS) – as well as the presence of USAID monitors and a U.S.-backed head of the election commission, Salvador Romero – suggests that this election on May 3 is not going to be at all fair; it will likely favor the coup government, including the entrepreneur who wants to turn over Bolivia’s lithium to Elon Musk’s Tesla and Jair Bolsonaro’s Brazil.

  A World of Lithium

  In 2019, the benchmark Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s “Energy Storage Outlook 2019” report anticipated that by 2030, the price of the lithium-ion battery would drop dramatically, and that – as a consequence – renewable energy (solar and wind) plus storage of energy in batteries will expand exponentially. By 2040, there is an expectation that wind and solar will produce 40 percent of world energy consumption, rather than the 7 percent it now produces. For this, demand for energy storage will increase.

  “The total demand for batteries from the stationary storage and electric transport sectors is forecast to be 4,584GWh (Gigawatt hours) by 2040,” write the Bloomberg analysts, “providing a major opportunity for battery makers and miners of component metals such as lithium, cobalt and nickel.” The current use is merely 9GW/17GWh.

  The key point to emphasize here is that this will provide “a major opportunity” for “miners of component metals such as lithium, cobalt and nickel.” When Bloomberg’s analysts use a word like “miners,” they do not mean the Bolivian miners or the Congolese miners, but the transnational firms, such as Tesla and its chief, Elon Musk. As far as Bloomberg and Áñez are concerned, South America is no longer to follow the resource nationalist project of Evo Morales; this is Elon Musk’s South America, a place for the neo-conquistadors to make money and leave behind them social carnage.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 03/13/2020 – 22:45

• Federal Reserve Turns To Big Data To Monitor Business Cycle 
  Federal Reserve Turns To Big Data To Monitor Business Cycle 

  Federal Reserve officials are increasingly turning to big data to provide them with a more accurate snapshot of the economy, AP News reports. 

  The first evidence of this was during a government shutdown last year when officials turned to First Data, a payments firm that processes $2 trillion in transactions per year, for credit card data to gauge the health of the consumer, as it was evident the Fed was flying blind with most of its consumer datasets halted because of the shutdown. 

  “It was a big deal for the Fed in terms of having information about the economy when the retail sales data did not come out,” said Claudia Sahm, a former Fed analyst who compiled the First Data consumer data for officials during the shutdown. Officials were “extremely interested in what those readings were.”

  The Fed is becoming aware that government data to assess the status of the business cycle is not as accurate as thought, and the 106-year old central bank must leap into the 21st century and embrace big data to stay relevant. 

  “We have been working with big data … with the purpose of better understanding the current position of the economy,” Chairman Jerome Powell recently said. “It’s an area of real interest for us.”

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  Billions of financial transactions are digitized and compiled by private firms and could be a solution for the Fed to monitor more accurately the business cycle for future policy adjustments. 

  The deployment of artificial intelligence, monitoring private data financial transactions, searching for anomalies, could be a new tool for the Fed to pre-emptively fight downturns. 

  “These data are becoming of increasing practical importance for figuring out the state of the economy for policymaking,” Matthew Shapiro, an economist at the University of Michigan who studies economic data, said at a conference last year. “The quality of official statistics is going to deteriorate without help from big data.”

  Most government datasets are a long lag and rely on surveys, not helpful when trying to gauge current conditions of the business cycle, and maybe explains why the Fed is sometimes late to the game in terms of policy action.

  Big data could allow the Fed to view the economy through a looking glass that is more real-time, as opposed to outdated surveys, which could also give the Fed tools to drop precise stimulus where it is needed the most, in terms of geographical region or a specific industry, a move that could thwart contagion. 

  Economists have pressured the Fed to adopt big data and private datasets as part of tools to monitor business conditions. It would make the Fed more accurate in policy deployment, considering they’ve been flying blind since December 23, 1913. 

  “Consumers shop online, summon cars for hire with an app, watch ‘TV’ without television stations or TVs, and ‘bank’ without cash or checks,” Shapiro wrote in a paper last spring. “Data could, in principle, be available with a very short lag.”

  The rise of alternative data has allowed hedge funds to place bets on the economy more accurately. For example, Yelp takes its customer data, packages it up, and sells it to hedge funds for a costly premium. Those hedge funds use artificial intelligence to find trends in Yelp’s consumer data, which then allows them to trade on it. 

  In other examples of using alternative data to guage real-time economic conditions,  we showed readers the collapse of China’s economy weeks before official data printed:

  • China Has Ground To A Halt: “On The Ground” Indicators Confirm Worst-Case Scenario
  • China Is Disintegrating: Steel Demand, Property Sales, Traffic All Approaching Zero
  • Terrifying Charts Show China’s Economy Remains Completely Paralyzed

  The Fed got a taste of big data last year during the government shutdown, it remains to be seen if the Fed will continue adopting alternative data as part of its monitoring toolkit.

   

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 03/13/2020 – 22:25

• Panic & The Pandemic: Is There A Better Approach?
  Panic & The Pandemic: Is There A Better Approach?

  Via Cliff Mass Weather blog,

  Our society is now transitioning into panic about the coronavirus.

  Universities and schools are being shuttered, sports activities and public gatherings are being cancelled, individuals are hoarding toilet paper and supplies, travel is being severely constrained, the stock market has crashed, and business activity is nose-diving.  Major businesses are forcing their employees to work at home.

  This blog will try to summarize the coronavirus threat, suggest that some of the panic-driven actions may not be well-founded, and that there may be a far better, more effective approach to deal with the virus.

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  Before I begin, let me note two things.   I am not a medical doctor, epidemiologist,  or viral expert. But I am a scientist with some facility with statistics and data, and my specialty, weather prediction, is all about helping people react appropriately to estimates of risk.  And I have talked to a number of doctors about this issue.  But don’t read any more if my background bothers you.

  How Bad is the Situation Today?

  If one steps back and looks at the actual numbers, particularly against other threats we face, the situation is far less apocalyptic than some are suggesting.   As of today, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) notes 1215 cases and 36 deaths in the U.S. since January 1.  This is a very, very small percentage of the U.S.  population of 331 million.   The number of U.S. cases no longer appears to be going up rapidly, as noted by the latest CDC graphic (see below).  Note the drop after the peak in early March.

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  In China, where the problem started, the number of cases is rapidly declining (see below).

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  According to Washington State’s Department of Health, the state has had 457 coronavirus cases and 31 deaths.  Most (23) of the death’s in Washington have been limited to one nursing facility in Kirkland with a large number of elderly, chronically ill patients.  In fact, according to the NY Times, this facility would typically lose 5 patients a month.

  This facility also represents about 50 of the coronavirus cases in Washington, since several first responders and staff were sickened (with no fatalities) due to exposure at this site.    In many ways, the Kirkland facility represented an unfortunate random event–the random exposure of a group of extremely vulnerable patients.    If this random exposure had not happened, Washington State would probably not be getting headlines as a center for this virus outbreak.

  An extremely important element of this coronavirus outbreak is that it hardly sickens young people, and healthy individuals of middle age or younger generally do not face a life-threatening illness.  To illustrate, here is the age distribution of cases in King County.   Few folks under 40 are sickened and none of them died.  The problem is with the sick and elderly.  This age distribution is going to be very, very important.  Similar statistics are found in China.

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  There are undoubtedly many, many cases of coronavirus infection in the younger, healthier members of society, many of which are not aware of their infection.  But without testing, we don’t really know other than by indirect statistical approaches.  Thus, the “death rates” are clearly far too high, and highly deceptive.

  Comparison to the Flu

  It is important to note that the coronavirus numbers are extraordinarily smaller than those of the flu.

  Below is a flu graphic I got from CDC and added the coronavirus cases (see the gray dot).  In fact, the gray dot should be much smaller.   For example, we had 36 coronavirus deaths nationally so far compared to 61,000 flu deaths in 2017-2018.  45 million cases that year compared to 1200 coronavirus cases so far this year.  In WA state, 75 have died of flu through the end of February and several years have brought 200- 300 deaths from influenza.

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  Coronavirus is not even in the same league as flu, which also kills the youngest among us. We did not close down universities, businesses, and more for flu.

  Interestingly, many who are panicking about the coronavirus today, refused to get a flu shot in past years, or to practice reasonable hygiene when flu is around  (e.g., washing hands carefully).  Coronavirus is also not in the same league as auto accidents, which kill 1.25 millions a year (3287 deaths a day), with 25-50 million injured or disabled for the worldwide statistics, while about 38,000 die in the U.S. each year from auto wrecks.

  Are our political leaders shutting down society for the flu or stopping auto travel because of deaths on the roadway? The answer is no.  So why are they willing to close down society to deal with the coronavirus, which has represented only a small smaller risk to the general population?  Life is full of risks that must be considered, mitigated, and dealt with.  But society must continue to function.

  Poor Response and Lack of Testing

  As the virus began to spread in China, the U.S. needed to develop a coherent plan for understanding and dealing with the crisis.  This did not happen.   President Trump probably made the right call about cutting off travel to China, but the lack of coherent planning beyond that is apparent.  The lack of testing is a major failure of his administration and others.

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  A key capability is to develop sufficient testing resources to determine the progression of the disease in the U.S.  This was sorely lacking, and the flawed testing developed by the CDC was one example of it.  Other countries have tested vastly greater numbers of individuals.  Importantly, the U.S. has not begun randomly test the general population to determine the extent of spread among U.S. residents.

  The Extreme Cost of the Current “Social Distancing” Approach

  Currently, the “social distancing” approach is being stressed by politicians and others.   The idea is that by canceling schools and large public gatherings, coupled with workers working online from home, there will be a reduction of coronavirus community spread, reducing the peak in the number of cases and put less stress on the limited resources of the medical community.  This is illustrated by the figures below.  You notice the number of cases doesn’t change (the area under the curve).  And it has another issue:  it greatly extends the period in which society is affected by the disease.

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  The cost of social distancing is immense, something many politicians do not seem to have thought through.  The stock market is in free fall, the economy is tanking, colleges are poorly educating their students through questionable online learning, K-12 students aren’t being taught, business is contracting, and workers are losing salaries and being laid off.  The lowest income folks are hurt worst, making “social distancing” highly regressive.   I have read estimates that that the world economy could lose trillions of dollars and that recession is now becoming more likely in the U.S.  

  Social distancing may be attractive for  a short period to slow the virus, but in the end it is not sustainable.  It is also inefficient.  In an attempt to prevent the virus from getting to elderly people with health problems, a huge population that does not have the disease or unlikely to get very sick from it is restrained from normal activity.  Something more effective is needed, something I would call “smart quarantine.”  More on that later.

  A number of the local politicians and others have been motivated to try massive social distancing based on a modeling study completed by several local researchers, suggesting only extreme social distancing can prevent a massive increase in cases and up to 400 deaths in our region.  This is a relatively simple model approach, which from my reading does not consider the variation of death rate with age, or the varying social interactions with age.  It assumes a uniform death rate of 1.6 %.   I think it would be useful to test an alternative strategy, based mainly on testing those that are not ill, and removing those people from social interaction.

  Media, Politicians, and the Web:  How and why they can promote panic

  The tendency for stampeding the population into panic and promoting actions that are in the end counterproductive is a real risk of the current political and media landscape.

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  For politicians, there is the potential for endless attention, with opportunities to give sober pronouncements and promote increasingly harsh measures.  Resources become freely available from a worried citizenry.  And the situation provides fuel to attack political foes, as is apparent with the attacks on Trump for virtually every action he takes (and some have been reasonable, like the China ban).  That said, President Trump is certainly guilty of underplaying the seriousness of the situation and providing inaccurate information.  The lack of testing is a massive failure.  There is, however, plenty of bipartisan blame to go around for ineffective responses.

  For the media, the situation is a bonanza, with huge increases in attention, which promotes more “clicks” and revenue. An increasingly isolated and home-bound populace is glued to the constant media barrage, promoting fear and anxiety.

  A highly connected population, unlike any population before, is unable to escape the incessant coronavirus coverage that is constantly featuring the latest death and shut-down.

  Another Way

  So it there another way to deal with the coronavirus epidemic that could be more effective and far less cost to society?  I suspect there is.   This approach would take advantage of several unique and new aspects of the current situation:

  • The fact that young and healthy people, the bulwark of our nation’s productive capacity, are only minimally affected by the coronavirus.

  • That most of the mortality is among the sick and elderly.

  • That the technology to test millions of individuals quickly is available.

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  Perhaps these facts allow us to deal with the situation in a dramatically new way.  If a rational actor was running the response, perhaps they would:

  1.   Protect the most vulnerable with all available resources.  All nursing facilities, retirement homes, and the like would be essentially quarantined, with all patients and staff tested for the virus, with those testing positive isolated from the remainder.  All visitors would have to be tested.  All individuals who are over 60 and possessing serious health problems would be asked to self-quarantine, with food and other assistance provided to allow them to reduce contact with the outside community.

  2.  Extensive random testing of the general population would be initiated, with millions of tests available for this purpose.  Such general testing would allow a determination of the extent of COVID-19 spread and the isolation of affected individuals and their close associates.  This is what I call “smart quarantine”– the use of massive testing to identify the carriers and currently sick and to take them out of circulation.

  3.  A fund to provide salaries for quarantined individuals would be initiated.  This would encourage all individuals to be tested and encourage financially marginal individuals to isolate themselves.

  4.  Social distancing would end and all schools reopened within a month..   It is poor public policy to cripple education and the productive capacity of individuals that are the bulwark of the U.S. economy, particularly since most of them are not at risk for serious impacts of the coronavirus.  Sustained social distancing is not a long term solution.

  5.  Federal grants will be initiated to support additional hospital costs, the acquisition of additional medical supplies and equipment, and the huge testing program.

  This measures would help pull the nation back from the brink of economic disaster, effectively restrain the crisis, and restore normal life to most individuals.

  The American people have a long history of panicking when they are threatened, at enormous financial and human cost.  After 9/11, the American people agreed to loss of privacy and civil liberties, and allowed a tragic invasion of Iraq.  And after the attack on Pearl Harbor, fears of a third column led to the internment and loss of liberty of over 100,000 Japanese Americans.   Hopefully, fears of coronavirus won’t lead to the unnecessary destruction of our economy and the undermining of the prospects of many Americans.  A creative solution to this crisis may be possible, acting as  bridge to the situation a year from now when hopefully a vaccine will be available.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 03/13/2020 – 22:05

• Americans Split Over Whether Movie Theaters Should Close Amid Outbreak
  Americans Split Over Whether Movie Theaters Should Close Amid Outbreak

  As the virus containment window has likely expired for many large US metropolitan areas, it would suggest confirmed Covid-19 cases and deaths are expected to rise in the days, if not weeks ahead. 

  With the flood of virus announcements developing in King County, Washington; Santa Clara, California; Los Angeles; and the Tri-state area, Americans are still not taking the pandemic seriously. 

   

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  Americans are perplexed by the severity of the virus outbreak, which was seen in the most recent Hollywood Reporter/Morning Consult poll, suggesting that many were split on whether movie theaters should shut down to prevent further transmission of the virus. 

  The poll found 38% of US adults believe shuttering movie theaters to contain the virus outbreak is a good idea, and shockingly, 44% opposed the containment measures. The survey was conducted from March 5-7 among 2,200 adults across the country. 

  Earlier this week, we noted the virus could stay airborne for 30 minutes and travel up to 14 feet, implying that movie theaters are significant breeding grounds, sort of like cruise ships. 

  The reason Americans feel indifferent about virus prevention measures is that the government and mainstream media downplayed the severity of Covid-19 for months, calling it no worse than the flu, which, by the way, ended on Wednesday, when Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), said the fast-spreading virus is “10 times more lethal than the seasonal flu.”

  So now, major cities have community spreading and are past the point of implementing containment measures to control the outbreak, such as closing down 41,000-plus movie screens across the country. 

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  What’s astonishing is that the rate of US containment measures is happening at such a slow speed compared to China earlier this year, who immediately shut down 70,000 movie theaters as confirmed cases in the country started to rise. 

  Despite the US government and corporations acting at snail-speed to protect their citizens, all because it would crash the economy and stock market, people are starting to recognize that maybe Covid-19 is more than just the flu. Theater stocks, such as AMC, Imax, and Regal owner Cineworld, have plunged in recent weeks on fears that consumers will stay home. About 46% of respondents in the study said they support the future “postponing all upcoming movie premieres.”

  Some 40% of respondents said theater chains should do more to help in the fight to combat the virus. And in our view, that means theaters should be closed for the next two months, similar to what Carnival Corp. announced on Thursday morning by suspending its Princess Cruises Line. But again, in America, profits over human safety – so we’ll see if shutdowns actually come, or maybe people will follow the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) guidelines of “social distancing.” 

  Roughly 43% of respondents said they agreed with the decision to postpone the new James Bond flick No Time to Die. We noted earlier this week that movie premiers and filming productions are being delayed or canceled across the world for the first half of the year.

  There’s some evidence that the virus outbreak could greatly benefit online streaming platforms, such as Netflix and Hulu. About 21% of respondents in the new THR/Morning Consult survey signed up for streaming services since the virus crisis began, and 43% said they would be watching more movies at home during the pandemic. 

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 03/13/2020 – 21:45

• Your 12-Point 'Great Depression II' Survival Guide
  Your 12-Point ‘Great Depression II’ Survival Guide

  Authored by MN Gordon via EconomicPrism.com,

  Bull Market RIP

  And just like that – after a magnificent 11 year run – the bull market in U.S. stocks is dead.  From its peak close of 29,551 on February 12 through yesterday’s [Thursday] close of 21,200, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has dropped over 28 percent – in just 30 days!  RIP.

  Death may mark the end.  The completion of the circle of life.  But it also marks the beginning of something new.

  The death of the bull market, for example, marks the birth of a new bear market.  By our estimation, the DJIA must fall an additional 30 percent – approximately – before the bear market dies and a new bull market is born.

  Between now and then, the central planners in command at the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury will do anything and everything to jumpstart the old bull market back to life.  On Thursday, Fed Chair Powell grabbed Hank Paulson’s bazooka and fired off a cumulative $4 trillion repo bailout.  But, alas, Powell’s bazooka was loaded with blanks.

  After a brief paring back of losses, the DJIA resumed its downward trajectory, closing the day down 2,353 – or nearly 10 percent.  The stock market, you see, knows something that Powell doesn’t know.  That is, the damage being done to businesses, in an effort to control the spread of coronavirus, is destroying the economy.

  Layoffs.  Shuttered doors.  Empty ports.  Quiet railroads.  Suspended sports and entertainment venues.  No Disneyland.  Oil price collapse.  No March Madness.  More layoffs.  Tom Hanks.  Bankruptcies.  Empty shelves.  Panic.  Sovereign debt crisis.  And soon to be empty bellies…

  The ultimate impact, in terms of GDP contraction, will tailspin the economy into a depression…perhaps, The Great Depression II.  The stock market, regardless of what Powell wants, is pricing this reality accordingly.

  There’s no escaping it…

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  Can’t Run, Can’t Hide

  You can’t run.  You can’t hide.  Remember, no one here gets out alive.  Though you aren’t totally helpless…

  You can tempt fate.  You can rage against the forces of destiny.  By this, you can place bets that are at odds with the madness of crowds.  Of course, this must be done before the inflection point; before the herd runs off the cliff…not after.

  For example, during periods of economic chaos, physical gold and silver and arable land are proven vehicles for wealth preservation.  No doubt, those with the means and fortitude to do so have already diversified some of their savings into these established crisis hedges.

  Those who haven’t can only blame themselves.  There have been ample warning signs over the last year – or more – that financial markets were ripe for a crisis.  It didn’t take half a brain to clue in on this.

  And it didn’t take much in the way of resources to place a bet or two that something ‘might could’ go wrong.  Even the lowly working stiff, with a small inkling of what was coming, could have taken a pass on shares of Apple and traded a small wad of paper bucks for a junk silver bag or two.

  With a little luck, these proven wealth preservation vehicles will safely traverse the valley of the shadow of death to whatever economic order emerges when the crisis abates.  At that point, we suspect paper dollars will trade at par with fire kindling, whereas silver and gold will retain their stored value.

  Indeed, gold and silver have gotten shellacked this week.  But, as night follows day, once this panic liquidation episode subsides, and the implications of fiscal and monetary currency debasement are realized, gold and silver will take off.  You can count on it.

  In the interim, escaping to a country house or a mountain cabin is an appealing option to ride out the depression – assuming you have one to escape to.  If not, the months ahead may validate the wisdom of having freeze dried food storage and a productive vegetable garden.  Assuming you’re prepared with a little food storage and gold, you can calmly hunker down and avoid large crowds.

  Other than that, the best thing to do is to try and stay out of the way as the traveling circus blows through town.  Hence, what follows are several proven, practical ideas, including a 12-Point Great Depression II Survival Guide, that anyone can follow to avoid taking this crisis square on the chin…

  Your 12-Point Great Depression II Survival Guide

  On November 21, 2008, when the sky was falling, and following many reader inquiries, we attempted to offer – from the heart – practical, discretionary advice on what to do to survive the economic crisis.  At the time, it served our readers well.

  For your benefit today, and by reader request, we’ll revisit it…with some minor touch ups.  We recommend printing this out, and tacking it to your office corkboard, so you can refer to it during the darkest of days, which are headed our way.

  Your 12-Point Great Depression II Survival Guide:

  1. Always take what’s yours…plus a little bit more.  You’ll undoubtedly need it with Donald J. Trump running riot during an election year.

  2. Never shake hands with your right hand, without first crossing the fingers of your left hand securely behind your back. You never know when you’ll need a do-over.

  3. Always look out for No. 1, save stepping in No. 2.

  4. Never give a beggar your pocket change, except when to do so is to buy them a drink.

  5. Know the difference between honesty with yourself and honesty with others.  The former must be rigorous; the later must be flexible…especially when applying for insurance.

  6. Never kick a man when he is down; so too, never hasten to help him up.

  7. Never stiff your barber. He’ll be your last resort for relief via bloodletting and fire cupping, should things get bad enough.

  8. Never con widows and orphans; all others are fair game.

  9. Do not worry about money; what you don’t have should be of little concern.

  10. Never forget that there’s a fool on every corner and a sucker born every minute.  Avoid being one of them when at all possible; for it is both demoralizing and expensive.

  11. Do not take it personal when you lose your job. This economy’s circling the toilet bowl; before this is over a lot of other good people will lose their job too.

  12. Remember, always, that this too shall pass; though never fast enough.  So keep your head up. For even during a depression the birds still sing, the flowers still bloom, and those of sound mind and body get through it a little wiser…if not a lot slimmer.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 03/13/2020 – 21:25

• After 79% Sales Crash In February, China Automakers Beg Government For Bailout
  After 79% Sales Crash In February, China Automakers Beg Government For Bailout

  We had been reporting China’s February auto sales numbers on a week by week basis, so Zero Hedge readers knew they were going to be ugly for the month. They just didn’t know how ugly.

  Industry wide, sales fell 79% in February, marking the biggest ever monthly plunge on record, according to Reuters. 

  And the industry is starting to panic. Automakers are now asking the government for relief after the industry’s collapse, which occurred in the midst of an already-in-progress global recession for automakers. Specifically, they are asking for cuts on the purchase tax for smaller vehicles and support for sales in rural markets, in addition to the easing of emission requirements. 

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  Sales for February fell to just 310,000 vehicles from a year earlier, marking the 20th straight month of declines. 

  Chen Shihua, a senior CAAM official said: “China’s auto sales for February returned to levels not seen since 2005.”

  And the once silver lining of EV sales is no longer. New energy vehicles contracted for an 8th month in a row as the CAAM pleaded the government for more subsidies on NEVs. 

  Yale Zhang, head of Shanghai-based consultancy AutoForesight, said: “The government will consider these proposals but it is unlikely they will launch so many policies. Measures like cuts to the purchase tax, support for rural markets and easing purchase restrictions on new energy vehicles are reasonable and would have an immediate impact.”

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  Auto makers are also asking the CAAM for improved logistics and the support of a resumption of production in Hubei province, where the coronavirus outbreak began. In Hubei, production for China’s automakers had resumed to about 40% of normal output levels, according to a CAAM survey. 

  The CAAM predicts sales numbers will “definitely” rebound in March. A CAAM official said last month that sales are likely to plunge 10% for the first half of 2020. Containing the coronavirus outbreak is going to be key in whether or not the industry rebounds, and by how much. 

  And remember, as production comes back online in China, demand globally will likely be falling off a cliff as other major countries deal with their “Wuhan moments”.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 03/13/2020 – 21:05

• Why 'Price Gouging' Actually Helps During a Crisis
  Why ‘Price Gouging’ Actually Helps During a Crisis

  Authored by Bradley Thomas via The Libertarian Institute,

  As the coronavirus panic heightens, the price of items like hand sanitizer and medical face masks – to the extent they are still available – are skyrocketing.

  CBS News reported last week that “Online, sales of virus protection products have skyrocketed, up 817% in the last two months. Two large bottles of Purell hand sanitizer were on sale for $299 on Amazon. That size normally sells for about $9 a bottle. Another listing, for four boxes of masks, is usually about $20 — it was being sold for more than $1,000.”

  In response, some state governments have already vowed to punish “price gouging.”

  “California’s attorney general told businesses that if they violated price gouging laws, ‘You’d better be prepared to pay the price for your lawbreaking.’ New York City is issuing $500 fines to any stores found price gouging, starting this week,” CBS reported.

  Indeed, even the Department of Justice issued a warning that they “stand(s) ready to make sure that bad actors do not take advantage of emergency response efforts, healthcare providers, or the American people during this crucial time.”

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  The trade group The Consumer Brands Association praised the DOJ’s response, saying “We appreciate the Department of Justice’s swift response to Consumer Brands’ request to combat price gouging and ensure American consumers have access to critical products at affordable prices.”

  But does preventing ‘price gouging’ during times of distress actually help ensure that critical products will remain available at affordable prices? Basic economics tells us no.

  Price controls in times of emergency have negative consequences, just as they do during normal times. When prices aren’t allowed to move in response to changing economic conditions, those who most urgently need these critical items will likely find the shelves empty.

  In the current situation, fear of the spread of the coronavirus has caused demand for virus protection items to skyrocket. But if the sellers of these items are not allowed to raise their prices out of fear of government punishment, the result will be that the first wave of customers will clear out all the available supplies.

  During times of distress like this, people’s demand curves shift. They are now willing to buy more of a good (like hand sanitizer) at any given price. Without a higher price, the first buyers will stock up, leaving no supplies for others in need. There is no incentive to economize; in fact there is incentive for those first in line to buy up more than they actually need to potentially take advantage of shortages and make a profit by selling to those willing to pay a higher price in the black market. 

  If prices are allowed to rise to reflect the greater urgency of demand, however, consumers will limit their purchases to just what they truly need. Those first in line will be far less likely to clean out the shelves, but rather buy the minimum amount needed to ride out the virus scare.

  I’m w/ Prosecutor @JakeHudnut + JCPD issuing tickets for price gouging. We won’t accept people taking advantage of residents. Tissues, Clorox, cleaning items, all doubling +. Rubbing alcohol went from $2.99 to $6.99. People sometimes can be terrible in how they treat eachother.. pic.twitter.com/GarSAkAW35

  — Steven Fulop (@StevenFulop) March 12, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  As a result, more people will be able to acquire at least some of the highly-valued products, and supplies are more likely to be available to those who most urgently need the product. As Robert Wenzel at EconomicPolicyJournal.com wrote:

  “If someone wants to buy a mask to travel by subway to go to a movie and the mask is $200, the consumer might think twice and not buy the mask, thus leaving it for someone else. At the same time, a heart surgeon may want to buy a mask to travel the same subway to perform heart surgeries. He might be very willing to pay $200 for a mask.”

  Moreover, freely adjusting prices send important signals to producers about the intensity of demand, providing incentive to suppliers to devote more resources to the production and distribution of the critical items in such high demand.

  Manufacturers of masks and hand sanitizer will be willing to outbid manufactures of other products for the inputs they need to produce the finished product. They may also be willing to invest in more speedy delivery mechanisms to more quickly acquire their needed inputs so that they can increase supplies in a shorter time frame. 

  Allowing for prices to freely adjust to market conditions sends vital signals both to consumers to economize and producers to marshal resources to increase supply. Shortages will be avoided and the most urgent needs will be met. 

  Emotions are running high during the current panic. Part of the emotional response is directed at sellers of critical items like hand sanitizer and medical masks, who are seen as exploiting the desperation of the situation. But government price controls will create shortages, causing those who most urgently need such products, like medical personnel, to do without. 

  As usual, when the government interferes in the market, they can only make a bad situation worse. 

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 03/13/2020 – 20:45

• Nomura: "The Market Has Only Just Begun Staring Into The Abyss"
  Nomura: “The Market Has Only Just Begun Staring Into The Abyss”

  While many post-mortems will be written on what, despite Friday’s torrid 9% rebound, has been a historic, unforgettable week which saw the US stock market plunge the most since the worst days of the global financial crisis, one of the more detailed and impactful was that of Nomura’s quant Masanari Takada who put the week’s events in simple, easy to understand context: “In little more than the blink of an eye, the situation has come to look like the 2008 Lehman Brothers crisis all over again.”

  Below we repost some of the key points from his note as we brace for another historic week, especially since something tells us – perhaps the Fed’s failure to normalize the funding situation – that the events from next week will be even more memorable.

  The plunge in US equities yesterday (12 March) pushed weekly returns down to 7.7 standard deviations below the norm. In statistical science, the odds of a greater-than seven-sigma event of this kind are astronomical to the point of being comical (about one such event every 160 billion years).

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  Setting aside legitimate quibbles over the statistical significance of this, we can say with confidence that we are witnessing a history-making market disaster in real-time.

  Looking back at the performance of the DJIA since 1900, market shocks have exceeded the current rout in magnitude on only three occasions: in 1914 (when a growing financial crisis caused trading in US equities to be halted), in 1929 (the historic market crash that led to the Great Depression), and in 1987 (the Black Monday event).

  US stock market sentiment has also seen a jarringly swift collapse, as equity sentiment has now gone beyond the low point marked during the 2015 renminbi shock. In little more than the blink of an eye, the situation has come to look like the 2008 Lehman Brothers crisis all over again.

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  The Fed has resumed its QE-in-all-but-name in response to the financial market meltdown. Many observers have questioned how effective the aid will actually be, given that there seems to be no way to put a conclusive stop to COVID-19. Expanded QE did help lift sentiment in 2015-2016, and therefore think that the Fed can at least help limit the risk of an extreme credit crunch. However, the paralysis in the international circulation of people and goods already being observed will almost inevitably undermine the market.

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  DM equities worldwide are in bear markets now. Going by our own data analysis, the pace of the present sell-off has broken all norms. When a downshift in the market is characterized by unusually steep declines, the usual driver is an outflow from longer-term investments.

  The present market rout is unconventional in that major hedge funds (global macro hedge funds, CTAs) appear to be behind the curve in their selling [ZH: just as Goldman warned this week]. If anything, we see a risk that short-term players may mount an attack on the downside, ramping up their selling in an attempt to push the market down further.

  For example, global macro hedge funds’ net exposure to DM equities (estimated from 30- day rolling beta) is still currently flat or even slightly long. It may be that these investors had been unable to fully imagine a pandemic-driven recession scenario, having no experience in that vein to draw upon. Global macro hedge funds may have taken this week’s abnormal market movements as their cue to simply offload their long positions in DM equities in their entirety.

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  There is a growing risk that global macro hedge funds, after liquidating their long positions, will proceed to aggressively build up short positions. Global macro hedge funds tend not to make spur-of-the-moment trades, but they do tend to stake out positions that are consistent with the macroeconomic outlook.

  In that respect, the S&P 500 dividend yield appears to already reflect market expectations for a slowdown in the US economy. If the ISM Purchasing Managers Index (average of the readings for manufacturers and non-manufacturers) were to drop to the level recorded around July 2009—as the dividend yield seems to imply—there is a high likelihood that global macro hedge funds would then (with some confidence) start expanding their short positions in pursuit of the market downside.

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  Similarly, CTAs appear to have failed to fully keep up with the drop in share prices in major countries. CTAs have of course been selling futures to unwind their long positions during this downward move in share prices. But when share prices shift downward abruptly, the short-term surge in volatility can often hinder trend-followers’ ability to participate in short-selling. This is because systematic trend-following strategies tend to build positions that balance: (1) the strength or weakness of trends; and (2) the level of volatility. This means that CTAs often wind up following one step behind when trends shift suddenly.

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  CTAs have turned short on DJIA futures. Because of the rapid pace of the Dow’s drop, CTAs have been able to build sufficient short positions. As they had already preferred short positions with the DJIA below 28,000, CTAs look likely to build short positions rapidly at current share price levels.

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  It may be, then, that the market has only just begun staring into the abyss.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 03/13/2020 – 20:31

• Democrats Want To Reverse Trump's Travel Bans Despite Coronavirus Spread
  Democrats Want To Reverse Trump’s Travel Bans Despite Coronavirus Spread

  Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

  House Democrats have introduced legislation that would undo President Trump’s travel bans from coronavirus stricken areas, despite the fact that the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) has said that the impact of the crisis would be much worse had the travel bans on China and Iran not been in place.

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  Democrats want to strip the President of the authority to implement the bans, introducing a bill titled the “No Ban Act,” which would allow travellers from Wuhan and other infected areas to keep arriving in the US unimpeded.

  “This bill imposes limitations on the President’s authority to suspend or restrict aliens from entering the United States and terminates certain presidential actions implementing such restrictions,” the bill  summary reads.

  The legislation vaguely says that Trump should only be able to “issue a restriction when required to address a compelling government interest.”

  The bill further declares that before any travel ban is imposed, the President would be mandated to “consult with Congress.”

  Democratic Presidential contender Bernie Sanders also said this week that he would not impose any travel bans during the coronavirus crisis.

  The action flies in the face of advice from Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the NIAID, who told lawmakers during a House Oversight and Reform Committee hearing Wednesday that “I believe we would be in a worse position,” had such travel bans not been imposed by Trump.

  Fauci’s comments come at the 1:00:39 mark

  “Whenever you look at the history of outbreaks, what you see now in an uncontained way and although we are containing it in some respects, we keep getting people coming into the country that are travel-related, we’ve seen that in many of the states that are now involved.” Fauci said.

  “We will see more cases and things will get worse than they are right now. How much worse they get will depend on our ability to do two things: To contain the influx of people who are infected coming from the outside and the ability to contain and mitigate within our own country. Bottom line, it’s going to get worse.” he added.

  Fauci’s comments regarding travel restrictions have been echoed by The New England Journal of Medicine, which recently reported: “At least on a temporary basis, such restrictions may have helped slow the spread of the virus.”

  Trump extended the travel ban Wednesday night to most of Europe (but not the UK) for at least 30 days.

  pic.twitter.com/YioC9eARdP

  — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 12, 2020

  “The European Union failed to take the same precautions and restrict travel from China and other hot spots,” the president said, adding “As a result, a large number of new clusters in the United States were seeded by travelers from Europe”.

  Trump’s words, and the announcement of the travel restriction drew anger from some European officials, who reportedly described it as “unbelievable” and “very strange.”

  Taking an emergency such as the #Coronavirus epidemic as another opportunity to wage his personal war against #China and the #EU … that says everything!

  — Alessandro Motta (@MottaIT) March 12, 2020

  Any attempt to contain the #CoronaOutbreak is welcome, but the decision of @realDonaldTrump to exclude the UK from a European travel ban is nothing short of irresponsible. Viruses do not recognise borders. Decisions should be based on facts, not politics.

  — Alexander Stubb (@alexstubb) March 12, 2020

  The European Commission and Council issued a joint statement declaring that “The European Union disapproves of the fact that the US decision to impose a travel ban was taken unilaterally and without consultation.”

  “The Coronavirus is a global crisis, not limited to any continent and it requires cooperation rather than unilateral action.” the statement continued.

  Trump was unwavering in his belief that his administration can mitigate the spread of the virus:

  I am fully prepared to use the full power of the Federal Government to deal with our current challenge of the CoronaVirus!

  — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 11, 2020

  ….Together we are putting into policy a plan to prevent, detect, treat and create a vaccine against CoronaVirus to save lives in America and the world. America will get it done!

  — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 11, 2020

  Someone needs to tell the Democrats in Congress that CoronaVirus doesn’t care what party you are in. We need to protect ALL Americans!

  — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 11, 2020

  The Media should view this as a time of unity and strength. We have a common enemy, actually, an enemy of the World, the CoronaVirus. We must beat it as quickly and safely as possible. There is nothing more important to me than the life & safety of the United States!

  — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 11, 2020

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 03/13/2020 – 20:05

• Mapping How The World Is Responding To Covid-19
  Mapping How The World Is Responding To Covid-19

  As Covid-19 steamrolls across the world, widespread social, political, and economic disruptions have developed. Each country affected by the fast-spreading virus has followed a similar blueprint of implementing containment measures to control spreading. 

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  Here’s a summary of virus prevention measures on a country by country basis: 

  • China – With 80,932 cases and 3,169 deaths, strict quarantines in the last several months could be working, that is if you trust government data. For anyone entering the country, 14-day quarantines are mandatory. The government has asked citizens to obey strict social distancing rules and ramped up mass surveillance to monitor the public. 

  • South Korea – With 7,869 cases and 66 deaths, government officials have enforced social distancing rules, companies have allowed employees to work at home, and the military has been disinfecting public areas. 

  • Japan – With 639 cases and nine deaths, the government has passed strict border control measures, halted all travel from China and South Korea, and has enforced mandatory quarantines for recent China and South Korean arrivals.

  • Iran – With 10,075 cases and 429 deaths, public gatherings and prayer sessions have been canceled, education and school systems are closed, all forms of public transportation have been disinfectant, and 70,000 prisoners have been released. 

  • Italy – With 12,462 cases and 827 deaths, all public gatherings and sporting events have been canceled. Schools and universities have been closed as strict travel restrictions within the country have been implemented to contain virus spreading. Closure of public services and curfews have been seen in some regions. 

  • France – With 2,284 cases and 48 deaths, mass gatherings have been banned, sporting events canceled, and schools remain closed in some areas. 

  • Spain – With 2,277 cases and 48 deaths, schools and universities are closed, flights to Italy restricted, sporting events postponed, and working hours have been reduced to limit the virus spread.

  • United Kingdom – With 596 cases and 10 deaths, schools will remain open, events and social gatherings are still allowed, and the government has advised anyone who feels sick to stay home.

  • Belgium – With 314 cases and 3 deaths, mass gatherings have been banned, school trips canceled, and social distancing measures are required to be followed by all citizens. 

  • Ireland – With 43 cases and 1 death, mass gatherings have been canceled, schools and colleges closed, along with the expectation that public facilities will be shuttered in the near term. 

  • United States – Mass gatherings restricted in California, National Guard deployed in New York, education systems in some states closed, CDC has asked citizens to follow social distancing rules, and travel from mainland Europe canceled. 

  The US has been the slowest to implement virus prevention measures, likely missing the containment window by weeks if not a month for many large cities, as community spreading has been reported. Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, was quoted by Reuters on Friday morning as saying, “the next few weeks, for most Americans, what you’re going to see is an acceleration of cases.” And with that being said, is America about to transform into Italy or South Korea? 

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 03/13/2020 – 19:45

• China Quietly Filling U.S. Vacuum In The Philippines
  China Quietly Filling U.S. Vacuum In The Philippines

  Authored by Jason Cataneda via The Asia Times,

  President Rodrigo Duterte’s cancellation of key strategic pact with US has opened the way for Chinese infiltration

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  As President Rodrigo Duterte moves to boot US troops from Philippine soil through the cancellation of a key defense pact, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is quietly moving in to take their place.

  Duterte’s recent decision to abrogate the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA), which allowed the US to rotate troops and position equipment in the country, is opening the way for China to solidify its competing strategic position in the country.

  That’s at least according to early findings of investigations into China’s undercover and illicit activities, ranging reputedly from espionage to surveillance to money laundering, now being spearheaded by Philippine Senator Richard Gordon.

  Those probes have included scrutiny of the hundreds of thousands of Chinese citizens now employed in the burgeoning online casino sector, known locally as Philippine Offshore Gaming Operations (POGOs), many of which are clustered close to key military camps and strategic bases in Manila, the national capital.

  Gordon has claimed that the POGOS have been infiltrated by PLA soldiers for intelligence gathering and other activities. Those claims were validated when two card-carrying PLA members attached to a POGO were were arrested in a shooting incident in Manila late last month.

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  Anti-China protesters during a demonstration in front of the consular office of China, Manila, April 9, 2019. Photo: AFP/Ted Aljibe

  The Senate investigations have revealed a tangled web of official corruption and conspiracy which has allowed countless Chinese citizens, including allegedly between 2,000-3,000 PLA soldiers, to illegally and secretly reside in the country.

  Under the so-called “pastillas” scheme, exposed by whistleblower Allison “Alex” Chiong of the Philippine Bureau of Immigration (BI), Chinese nationals pay roughly 10,000 pesos (US$200) as a “service fee” for special treatment and ease of entry into the country.

  While around $40 of that fee goes to immigration officers, the rest is allegedly spread among senior officials and other allies of the president who oversee the alleged syndicate run out of Manila’s Ninoy Aquino International Airport.

  The money, according to the whistleblower, is rolled inside a sheet of bond paper, similar to how the Philippine milk candy delicacy “pastillas” is packed. That, the investigations claim, has paved the way for so-called Chinese “immersion missions” by PLA members.

  Public anger against the POGOs has recently spiked, fueled by the Duterte government’s belated imposition of a travel ban on Chinese citizens amid the coronavirus outbreak that started its deadly global spread in late January.

  Many believe that wayward officials who benefit from the POGOs and import of illegal Chinese workers played an outsized role in the decision to allow thousands of Chinese citizens, including from Wuhan, the outbreak’s epicenter, to enter the country even after Beijing quarantined all of Hubei province.

  Senator Panfilo Lacson, chairman of the committee on national defense and security and a former police chief, said that he has recently received information from security agencies claiming that thousands of undercover PLA members are engaged in “immersion missions” in the country, with Chinese spies operating under the guise of POGO workers.

  “The intelligence community should exert extra effort to gather information in this regard,” Lacson recently said.

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  Chinese-run gambling operations in the Philippines are under growing scrutiny as potential spy havens. Image: Facebook

  Lacson, Gordon and Senate Minority Leader Franklin Drilon have all recently warned that China aims to take advantage of the new and growing security vacuum caused by Duterte’s recent abrogation of the VFA with the US, a move that has undermined the legal status of the two sides’ 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT).

  The US and Philippines stage thousands of bilateral military activities and exercises each year, including war games that include mock invasions of islands that aim to send a strong signal to China in the South China Sea.

  “That may confirm a yet unvalidated report that a good number of PLA members are on ‘immersion mission’ in several parts of the country, although the reason for it is still unclear,” Lascon said.

  “The police as well as the intelligence community should lose no time in exerting serious efforts to authenticate the discovered PLA using sources independent of the Chinese government, for obvious reasons,” warned the senator.

  Lascon has also claimed that 47 Chinese individuals recently smuggled US$446 million into the Philippines over a recent five month span, whereby the Chinese money launderers paid and made connections with bent Philippine officials.

  Senator Gordon, long seen as a Duterte ally, has warned of large-scale money laundering going hand-in-hand with a potential “fifth column” infiltration of Chinese security forces.

  “There is tolerance. I don’t know where it is coming from,” said Gordon, implying the Beijing-friendly president is partly responsible for the threat, according to media reports.

  “The shenanigans of what we see here, all happened because of the policy decision to allow overseas gaming operations in our country,” said Drilon in directly blaming the Duterte administration.

  “What is happening in our country is apparently rooted in the very presence of POGOs run by the Chinese. If there were no POGOs, all of these nefarious activities would have no purpose,” he added.

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  An aerial photo depicting the location of Chinese-run POGOs and the Philippine military’s headquarters. Source: Defense Forum

  Fears of systematic Chinese espionage activities were sparked last year when netizens shared images showing the suspicious proximity of Chinese-run POGOs to security and law enforcement agencies in Manila.

  Those include POGOs situated near the Philippine Air Force and Navy headquarters, Philippine National Police headquarters at Camp Crame, and Camp Aguinaldo which hosts the Philippine Army and National Defense Department offices.

  “When you already see many people [at the POGOs], who are always there…it’s very easy for all these [Chinese] people to perhaps shift their activities to spying,” Philippine Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana said last year. “They are near [military facilities].”

  Philippine National Security Adviser Hermogenes Esperon, meanwhile, raised alarms last year over the entry of thousands of undocumented Chinese as a potential security “threat”, including through possible PLA surveillance and espionage.

  “You’d also start getting worried when a whole building, condominium, tower is occupied by only one nationality where you would not be able to guard all their activities,” the national security adviser said. “Some unwelcome activities could transpire there so we need to prevent those.”

  It’s not clear yet that Duterte’s pro-China administration will undertake any concrete measures to address these concerns and reputed threats.

  “He [Duterte] told me…We really need the funds from those [POGO] operations,” presidential spokesperson Salvador Panelo said amid an escalating call for their closures. “Because the money we get from whatever [Chinese] sources is for the government, so the government can use that in any undertaking.”

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 03/13/2020 – 19:25

• "The Market Is Broken" – Why Nobody Is Trading Any More
  “The Market Is Broken” – Why Nobody Is Trading Any More

  On the first day of this week, which would soon mutate into the worst week for capital markets since the 2008 financial crisis, we warned that markets are about to go full tilt for the simple reason that “there is no liquidity“, something we first highlighted at the start of the month when we pointed out “Two More Problems For The Bulls: Market Liquidity And Short Interest Are At All Time Lows.“

  Why our constant focus on liquidity? Because as Goldman explained on Thursday, “liquidity and volatility are interconnected, creating a self-reinforcing loop, and as a result liquidity conditions have been an important contributor to the velocity of recent S&P 500 moves.” Yet while liquidity had dipped in the past on numerous stressed occasions, what we saw in recent days has been borderline biblical as top-of-book depth for SPX E-mini futures, typically the conventional metric of liquidity representing the dollar-amount of SPX E-mini futures available to trade electronically on the typically 25-cent wide market, has – as Goldman put it – “started to lose meaning as fewer and fewer market participants are quoting one-tick-wide markets for the futures at all.”

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  As Goldman further explained, as volatility spiked, electronic futures liquidity has fallen to the point where there has been a median of just 10 contracts, representing $1.5mm notional, on the bid and ask of E-mini futures screens over the past week (compared with a median of 120 contracts, representing $18mm notional, in 2019).

  The implication of this small number of contracts quoted was that very few market makers are quoting 25 cent wide markets at all. At the same time the frequency of E-mini futures showing wider-than-one tick markets has risen sharply; and according to Goldman’s estimates, during Monday’s severe sell-off, E-mini futures had 50 cent wide markets more than 25% of the time, more than double the frequency seen on 24-Dec-2018. The key takeaway of diminished liquidity, however measured, is that individual trades can move markets more than they otherwise would have, leading to higher volatility.

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  A key reason for the latest drop in liquidity has, curiously, been the concurrent drop in trading volumes: SPX future and option volumes were materially lower over the past week than they had been in the initial days of this market downturn (although they were still high relative to normal periods).

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  One surprising contributor to lighter-than-expected volumes over the past week has been slowing trading needs from the SPX option market, for two reasons:

  1. Option volumes have slowed, particularly soon-to-expire options. As shown below, SPX option activity has been slower over the past week than it was earlier in the drawdown, resulting in less delta-hedging flow.

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  Activity in soon-to-expire SPX options with less than 24 hours to expiration has also trended downward over the past few days despite high volatility. Stated simply, Goldman sees the extreme level of option prices as a barrier to entry for many market participants.

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  2. Most 20-Mar options have strikes much higher than current spot. Goldman goes on to note that many of its clients have mentioned the large activity in 20-Mar expiration SPX options, dating back to August, as a reason for concern about gamma impact. While the 20-Mar expiration is currently one of the largest-ever, by open interest, rivaling the always-large December expirations, most of its $1.7 trillion of open interest is at strikes well higher than the current SPX level, and was created in the last three months.

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  As a result, this expiration no longer has any relevant gamma profile at the current spot range.

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  Yet while this may explain much of the collapsing equity market liquidity, an even more ominous development is the cratering liquidity across all asset classes, as we discussed on Monday, and which we attributed to the ongoing systemic shock that is rapidly draining dollar funding from the system and which the Fed, as of late Friday afternoon, has been unable to resolve despite trillions in repo and QE backstops announced over the past 48 hours.

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  And so, after we first lamented the collapse in bond market liquidity at the start of the week, Bloomberg is there at the end of it, to confirm that not only has the situation not gotten better, it has in fact gotten worse, to wit: “The deepest bond market in the world is struggling with a lack of liquidity to a degree that veteran asset managers say they’ve never seen before.”

  The $17 trillion U.S. Treasury market is creaking as it feels the full force of trader panic over the coronavirus and its effect on the global economy. Thirty-year yields jumped as much as 35 basis points Friday before paring most of that increase. The Treasury’s longest maturity has moved in a double-digit range every day this week. Trading in off-the-run Treasuries, which are the older cousins of benchmark issues, has been particularly difficult.

  And so, one day after we first reported that according to BofA the US Treasury market, the world’s largest and most liquid, is no longer functioning properly. 

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  Indeed, the staggering moves in the bond market itself have been the best indicator of just how illiquid it has become: on Monday, 30-year yields posted the biggest intraday decline since at least October 1998, followed by a bizarre last hour crash even as stocks continued to sell. And while a massive injection of cash from the Federal Reserve, President Donald Trump’s plan to declare a national emergency and hopes for fiscal support lifted stocks Friday, analysts and investors say the U.S. government-debt market is still not functioning properly.

  “Liquidity is still atrocious,” said Mark Holman, chief executive officer at TwentyFour Asset Management. Mark here laments something we said earlier: while some traders may have found trades in the insane rollercoaster market we observed in the past few days, they were unable to take put the trades on as there simply was not enough – or any – liquidity:

  “We were just trying on Monday to trim a long position in the 30-year Treasury because it had moved so far in our favor, and were unable to get bids from several major dealers. We’ve never seen that before.“

  “I understand that dealers don’t have the risk appetite and budget they normally have,” said Holman, who unlike most active “traders” today has in fact seen a bear market in his career which stretches back to 1989. “But I’ve never seen that before, the inability to trade a U.S. Treasury.”

  Meanwhile, confirming our Friday observations that liquidity is not only cataclysmic but getting worse, Goldman points out that a pair of block trades in Treasury futures printed well below market levels on Friday in a sign that conditions remain volatile. Traders also reported a shortage of prices on screens, while futures on U.S. ultra bonds hit circuit breakers repeatedly during Friday morning trading in Europe.

  ““We heard there were some issues in off-the-run Treasuries,” Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on CNBC Friday morning. “We are working on that”… but apparently not enough, and the result was the biggest VaR shock of all time as risk parity funds launched a crushing deleveraging which has crippled conventional correlations, and left traders speechless at the bid or offerless Treasury markets.

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  And as risk parity funds were caught in a liquidation cascade, both the equity and Treasury markets became unstable to the point of being untradeable. After starting the week off below 1%, 30-year yields soared to 1.79% amid the margin call liquidation rout, with bid-offer spreads surging to the highest level in years.

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  It wasn’t just the US: German Bunds also saw yields surge after Germany finally caved and said the country would spend billions to cushion the economy.

  The forced selling by certain funds meant that dealers were flying blind, and as a result many refused to make orderly markets, only adding to the market paralysis. “Very few dealers are willing to commit to firm prices on screens, said Zoeb Sachee, head of European government-bond trading at Citigroup Inc.

  “There has been an abrupt deterioration in liquidity in the last week or so and it seems to get worse by the day.”

  Just as we warned two weeks ago.

  Finally, adding insult to injury, volatility – both for stocks and bonds – continues to surge. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch MOVE Index, which measures price swings in Treasuries, and the VIX both jumped to the highest levels since the financial crisis.

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  “We have seen such aggressive moves in the market that everyone is having to rebalance, address losses, or de-risk,” Richard Kelly, head of global strategy at TD Bank, although he was clearly ignoring the shorts for whom the current market shock has been the gift they had all been waiting for for the past decade.

  “We are at the stage where central banks need to provide exceptional liquidity into the market to make sure that basic markets can function.”

  But the real question is whether central banks can even do that: after a catastrophic ECB press conference which led to the biggest European market crash in history, and two days of unprecedented Fed interventions, stocks barely noticed, and it wasn’t until Trump made some vague promises on Friday afternoon that risk finally found a bid. This backdrop means that Fed policy makers when they meet next week have to not only cut rates but take additional action to shore up liquidity in the financial system, said Alex Li, head of U.S. rates strategy at Credit Agricole. That could include a special liquidity program, such as efforts undertaken during the financial crisis, he said, echoing Credit Suisse’s Zoltan Pozsar who now expects the Fed effectively launch every liquidity bailout operation  possible, save for purchasing stocks outrght.

  “The Fed just cutting rates again at this stage is really not the right medicine,” Li said.”‘The Treasury market is broken — with it being very illiquid. There’s very wide spreads between on- and off-the-run spreads,” and other signs of dislocation.

  Let’s just hope Jerome Powell, who first diagnosed the real problem with the US capital markets back in 2012, knows how to fix them.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 03/13/2020 – 19:05

• US Equity Market Crashes Below 2007 Highs Despite Massive Surge On Trump Stimulus Plan
  US Equity Market Crashes Below 2007 Highs Despite Massive Surge On Trump Stimulus Plan

  Today saw the biggest spike in US equities since October 2008 after an avalanche of intervention in the last 24 hours across the world and extended by 1600 Dow points as Trump unveiled his stimulus/testing plan…

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  The last time the market rallied this much was 10/28/2008 – the day TARP was announced…

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  However, the S&P fell 35% further after that TARP bounce…

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  But, overall, the market just suffered its fastest, most aggressive collapse into a bear market… ever…

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  But even more ominously, the broadest measure of the US equity market – The NYSE Composite Index – has collapsed below the 2007 highs (despite trillions in added liquidity)…

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  Ray Dalio nailed the top…

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  We’re sorry but no clip better serves as an analogy for this Minsky Moment than this one…

  US equity markets ended the week on a stronger note, big gains overnight (limit up in futures), a plunge at the cash open, only to rebound when rumors hit that the President would declare a National Emergency (implicitly some fiscal largesse) and when he announced his plans, the market went vertical… this was the best day for stocks since 10/28/08…

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  This was the market’s worst week since Oct 2008, but Small Caps’ 20% crash this week is the worst since 1987 (Small Caps’ 3-week plunge of 30% is the worst ever)

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  European stocks were hit hard this week too (Italy down over 23% on the week – worst week in history)…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  And even Chinese stocks sold off with ChiNext hit hardest…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  Direct-Virus-impacted sectors were monkeyhammered this week…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  Banks were battered (but bounced today)…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  VIX surged higher this week at an unprecedented pace, closing near record highs…

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  The VIX term structure collapsed to its most inverted since Lehman this week…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  Investment Grade credit crashed this week – by our record this is the biggest weekly spread decompression in history…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  HY credit risk also exploded this week – again the biggest weekly decompression in our datasets…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  Stocks and bonds were dumped unceremoniously this week…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  As Risk-Parity Funds saw the biggest deleveraging losses in history…

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  Bonds suffered a total bloodbath this week – despite the collapse in stocks, with the end of day seeing a melt-up in rates…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  30Y yields exploded higher this week after Sunday night’s crash to record lows. Today saw 30Y spike to 1.79% intraday before tumbling back to 1.39% on the Fed’s emergency QE today…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  After collapsing to 69bps on Sunday night/Monday morning, this week’s blowout on yields is the biggest ever…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  But most worryingly, the Bond ETF world really started to break as massive, unprecedented discounts occurred in Treasury, Muni, and HY Credit ETFs exposing the illiquidity of the underlying assets…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  In Munis, the SEC restricted short-sales in the ETF to try and maintain some order – it failed.

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  Source: Bloomberg

  Before we leave bond land, we note that CMBX crashed back towards its lows as virus anxiety impacting malls and the credit collapse combine to benefit Carl Icahn’s short…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  And the market is now demanding practically 1 full percentage point cut in rates next week by The Fed…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  The Dollar was massively bid this week as it appears key safe-haven flows – and liquidity demands – sparked a ‘sell-everything-else’ trade worldwide… (3 days this week were the biggest daily gains in the dollar since Nov 2016)

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  Source: Bloomberg

  This was the biggest weekly gain for the dollar since Oct 2008 (Lehman)…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  Japanese Yen had its worst week since Nov 2016…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  This was the worst week for cryptos since April 2013 – a total bloodbath (yes, Bitcoin Cash is down over 50% this week)…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  With Bitcoin crashing below $4,000 intraday

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  Source: Bloomberg

  The surge in the dollar this week did not help but commodities were clubbed like baby seals as it seemed someone was mass liquidating everything in a scramble for cash…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  This was WTI’s worst week since Dec 2008 (and biggest 3-week drop ever)…

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  Gold suffered its worst week since Sept 2011, smashed back below $1600…

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  Silver also saw its worst week since Sept 2011…

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  And perhaps the most stunning moves were in precious metals among all this chaos as gold slumped into the red for the year and high-flying palladium was destroyed…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  Finally, this was the worst weekly loss for a ‘diversified’ book of bonds and stocks since Lehman…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  And, if you’re wondering where this ends, it’s simple – below 2,000 for the S&P 500… as the last five years of equity market gains have been total delusion…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  And if you thought The Fed’s Trillion-dollar-plus care-package helped… it didn’t! FRA-OIS spreads continued to blow out, strongly suggesting massive dollar shortages and/or fear of systemic bank credit risks…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 03/13/2020 – 19:02

• FBI's Russia Collusion Case Fell Apart In First Month Of Trump Presidency, Memos Show
  FBI’s Russia Collusion Case Fell Apart In First Month Of Trump Presidency, Memos Show

  Authored by John Solomon via JustTheNews.com,

  The piecemeal release of FBI files in the Russia collusion investigation has masked an essential fact: James Comey’s G-men had substantially debunked the theory that Donald Trump’s campaign conspired with Moscow by the time the 45th president was settling into the Oval Office, according to declassified memos, court filings and interviews.

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  And that means a nascent presidency and an entire nation were put through two more years of lacerating debate over an issue that was mostly resolved in January 2017 inside the bureau’s own evidence files.

  The proof is now sitting in plain view.

  In rapid fire sequence in January 2017, U.S. officials:

  • received multiple warnings about the credibility of informant Christopher Steele and his dossier;

  • affirmed key targets of the FBI counterintelligence investigation made exculpatory statements denying collusion to undercover sources;

  • concluded retired Lt. Gen. Mike Flynn, Trump’s first national security adviser, was not engaged in collusion with the Russians.

  The latter revelation has mostly escaped much notice, contained in a single sentence in a once-sealed court motion filed by Flynn defense attorney Sidney Powell that requested what is known as Brady material, or evidence of innocence.

  That motion dated Sept. 11, 2019 requested access to “an internal DOJ document dated January 30, 2017, in which the FBI exonerated Mr. Flynn of being ‘an agent of Russia.’”

  Flynn’s motion is confirmed by a 2018 letter obtained by Just the News between Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s office and defense lawyers. It shows the DOJ exoneration memo was written after Flynn had been interviewed by FBI agents in January 2017 and after the government learned the former Defense Intelligence Agency chief had kept his old agency briefed on his contacts with Russia, something that weighed heavily against the notion he was aiding Moscow.

  “According to an internal DOJ memo dated January 30, 2017, after the Jan. 24 interview, the FBI advised that based on the interview the FBI did not believe Flynn was acting as an agent of Russia,” Mueller’s team wrote in the letter.

  U.S. District Judge Emmett Sullivan so far has concluded that the exoneration of Flynn on the Russia collusion charge wasn’t relevant to his conviction since he pled guilty to a different crime, making a false statement to the FBI.

  But for the American public, such a revelation is momentous. 

  Less than two weeks into Trump’s presidency the FBI had concluded his national security adviser had not been working as an agent of Russia. While that was the view of federal law enforcement, the false storyline of Flynn as a Russian stooge was broadcasted across the nation, with leaks of his conversations with a Russian ambassador and other tales, for many more months.

  In an interview with Just the News and its John Solomon Reports podcast, Powell confirmed she was provided by letter three sentences from the DOJ memo but has been unable to get the full document. 

  “It’s just horrible,” Powell said. “They gave us a little three lines summary of it and the letter and told us it existed but have refused to give us the actual document, which I know means there’s a lot of other information in it that would be helpful to us.”

  Powell also confirmed that Mueller was fully aware of a letter sent in early January 2017 to Flynn from Britain’s national security adviser raising concerns about Steele’s credibility.

  The British government “hand-delivered” a letter to Flynn’s team that “totally disavowed any credibility of Christopher Steele, and would have completely destroyed the Russia collusion narrative,” Powell said.

  Flynn himself has no memory of receiving the communique, but people around him at the time do and confirmed the existence of the document, Powell explained. Flynn was questioned about it during his debriefings by Mueller’s team, she added.

  “I was told that a copy of the document would have been given to [then-National Security Adviser] Susan Rice as well,” she added. “So the Obama administration knew full well that the entire Russia collusion mess was a farce.”

  Instead of responding to the British government’s warning by abandoning the Russia collusion narrative and sparing her client the years-long ordeal of being targeted for investigation, top U.S. intelligence officials hid the communication, Powell said.

  Her account confirms information that Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.) provided for a May 2019 article for The Hill.

  Other significant red flags also emerged in January 2017 that the Russia collusion theory used by the FBI to open a Trump campaign-focused probe in July 2016 was simply wrong. So too was the evidence the FBI submitted to secure an October 2016 FISA warrant targeting Trump campaign adviser Carter Page.

  According to information made public by Justice Department Inspector General Michael Horowitz and the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court, the FBI interviewed Steele’s primary sub-source around Jan. 7, 2017. That source disavowed much of the Russia collusion evidence attributed to him in the dossier, a fact the bureau hid from the court.

  A recent order by FISC Chief Judge James Boasberg lays bare how devastating the revelation from Steele’s source was to the entire Russia collusion theory.

  “Steele obtained this information from a primary sub-source, who had, in tum, obtained the information from his/her own source network,” the judge wrote.

  “The FBI did not, however, advise DOJ or the Court of inconsistencies between sections of Steele’s reporting that had been used in the applications and statements Steele’s primary sub-source had made to the FBI about the accuracy of information attributed to ‘Person 1,’ who the FBI assessed had been the source of the information in Reports 95 and 102. The government also did not disclose that Steele himself had undercut the reliability of Person 1, telling the FBI that Person 1 was a ‘boaster’ and an ‘egoist’ and ‘may engage in some embellishment.'”

  An FBI spreadsheet similarly found that nearly all of Steele’s information in the dossier was either false, could not be proved, or amounted to Internet-based rumor, making it mostly worthless as actionable intelligence.

  Further eroding by January 2017 the FBI’s “mosaic” (former FBI Director James Comey’s term) of evidence cited for suspicions of collusion, the bureau had collected exculpatory statements in fall 2016 in which two central targets of the investigation — former Trump advisers Carter Page and George Papadopoulos — told undercover informants they were not colluding with Russia.

  Boasberg’s ruling also slammed the FBI for hiding these statements from his court, saying they substantially undercut the FBI’s predicate for the investigation, including the now-disproven allegation that Page had altered the RNC platform at the 2016 nominating convention to help Putin.

  “The government also omitted Page’s statements to a confidential human source that he intentionally had ‘stayed clear’ of efforts to change the Republican platform, as well as evidence tending to show that two other Trump campaign officials were responsible for the change,” the judge wrote. “Both pieces of information were inconsistent with the government’s suggestion that, at the behest of the Russian government, Page may have facilitated a change to the Republican platform regarding Russia ‘s annexation of part of Ukraine.”

  The Horowitz report confirms the court’s finding in much greater detail.

  Flynn was cleared of being a Russian agent in January 2017. That same month Steele’s dossier was both discredited by the British government and repudiated by his own confidential sources. And the FBI had evidence its two main Trump targets were innocent. All as President Trump was starting his first two weeks in office.

  Congressional investigators are now looking at whether Comey’s approach to Trump at a Feb. 14, 2017 dinner at the White House may have been part of an effort to pivot away from the bogus Russia collusion investigation and lay a predicate for a new investigation focused on possible obstruction of justice. Those same investigators also are inquiring as to why Mueller’s final report did not more clearly spell out how the FBI’s collusion case fell apart in January 2017.

  Wherever that congressional inquiry lands, there is now clear and convincing evidence that the country, the president and the courts were kept in the dark about an historic turnaround in the evidence in January 2017, even as defendants were being pressured to plead guilty to crimes unrelated to the collusion allegation. Time will tell whether those who kept this secret for two more years will be held to account.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 03/13/2020 – 18:45

• DARPA's Pandemic Prevention Platform Could Develop Therapeutic "Shield" To Fight Covid-19 By Summer
  DARPA’s Pandemic Prevention Platform Could Develop Therapeutic “Shield” To Fight Covid-19 By Summer

  The Pentagon’s most secretive military research department is developing a therapeutic “shield” that could provide a new way to boost American’s immunity to Covid-19, reported DefenseOne. 

  The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency’s (DARPA) Pandemic Prevention Platform (PPP) is not in search of a vaccine against the fast-spreading virus that is now considered a pandemic, but rather is developing an advanced therapy that seeks to boost the immune system of people until an actual vaccine is developed. The result could prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed by sick people. 

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  DARPA scientists working on PPP have been sequencing the B cells of a Covid-19 patient who has recovered. B cells, also known as B lymphocytes, are a type of white blood cell that produces antibodies that aid the immune system in its fight to fend off an invading microorganism.

  “We are able to take a patient that has recovered from this pathogen [Covid-19], for example, and we are able to sequence many of their B cells. So those cells that make those antibodies that help protect you against those pathogens? We are now able to sequence all of those because of next-generation sequencing approaches,” Dr. Amy Jenkins, manager of PPP, told DefenseOne. 

  If scientists can successfully sequence the B cells, they could create a new therapy with a “manufacturing timeline” in a little over three months, Jenkins said. It would buy some time, considering a proven vaccine is 12-18 months away. 

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 03/13/2020 – 18:25

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• Erdogan Blasts "Nazi" Greeks For Denying' Refugees' Access To Europe
  Erdogan Blasts “Nazi” Greeks For Denying’ Refugees’ Access To Europe

  Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Wednesday that he would continue to flood migrants and refugees into Europe until European officials satisfied his demands, reported France 24. 

  Erdogan said Greece’s treatment of migrants and refugees at the Greece–Turkey border is comparable to Nazi atrocities. 

  “There is no difference between what the Nazis did and those images from the Greek border,” Erdogan said.

  “Until all Turkey’s expectations, including free movement … updating of the customs union and financial assistance, are tangibly met, we will continue the practice on our borders,” he told his AKP parliamentary group. 

  Turkish authorities over the last month have been facilitating refugee and migrant flows towards the border with Greece as Erdogan has made good on his promise to ‘open the gates.’ Erdogan views this move as a means to destabilize European governments and their economies in hopes Brussels would submit to his demands, including, more recently, greater assistance with the Syrian conflict.

  Ankara has openly said its strategy is to push migrants from Syria to the European border and make sure they do not return. Turkey deployed 1,000 special operations police officers along the 124 mile stretch of the border to make sure migrants stay in Greece. 

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  A video earlier this week showed Turkish special operations police using an armored vehicle with a rope to pull down a border fence, in an attempt to flood Greece with migrants. The outcome, however, was unsuccessful but outlined Ankara’s dangerous attempt to unleash migrant hell on Europe. 

  A Turkish armoured vehicle with a rope attached to it was reportedly trying to pull down the Greek border fence this evening #Turkey #Greece pic.twitter.com/2lW3QuFypL

  — CNW (@ConflictsW) March 7, 2020

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  Greece has shut its border with Turkey to avoid a migrant rush at the port of entries. Parts of its border with Turkey have been militarized; in anticipation, a crisis could soon develop as tens of thousands of people are awaiting entry. 

  “This is all a game. We just want someone to tell us what will happen.”
  Thousands of refugees & migrants have rushed to Turkey’s border with Greece hoping to cross into Europe. It’s freezing. They have no shelter, not enough food. 📽️Our report from Edirne: https://t.co/67fV0SQhrb pic.twitter.com/WQFk7Ym2Z5

  — Julia Hahn (@juliahahntv) March 1, 2020

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  Turkey is officially a terrorist state.
  Turkish authorities equip migrants with chemicals and guide them to the Greek border.
  This is an invasion.#IStandWithGreece #Greece_under_attack pic.twitter.com/bNfvC9bKEJ

  — The Duke (@john_wayne_gr) March 2, 2020

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  Today’s situation from the Greek Turkish borders, the Greek police continued to drop water on the illegal Turkish migrants. #Greece pic.twitter.com/ojdi5q9lfF

  — Nic 🇬🇷 (@NicAthens) March 11, 2020

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  The Greek border police is torturing, humiliating and violating the refugees who crossed the river to Greece.
  The police tortured the civilians, took their clothes and sent them back to Turkey to suffer. pic.twitter.com/8hOxZYk1LV

  — Asaad Hanna (@AsaadHannaa) March 6, 2020

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  Migrants try to remove fences during the clashes with Greek police, after they tried to pass on Greek side, on the buffer zone Turkey-Greece border in Edirne.
  A picture by #AFP photographer @Kilicbil pic.twitter.com/qu7eDnrViS

  — Aurelia BAILLY (@AureliaBAILLY) March 5, 2020

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  Don’t go toEurope the border is closed go back #Greece_Turkey_Borders pic.twitter.com/dgdN0TgSQ1

  — Saouridou Vasiliki (@saouridouvaso) March 3, 2020

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  Turkish Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu was quoted last weekend as saying the next wave of migrants to flood Europe could reach one million, which would lead to a collapse of European governments and economies.

  Turkey’s Communications Directorate Fahrettin Altun criticized Greek authorities last week over the “ill-treatment of refugees.”

  Erdogan said Greek border guards have “opened fire on innocent people, exposing them to all kinds of inhumane treatment … [It] is barbarism in the full sense of the word.” 

  He added that “with the warming of the weather in the spring, the influx of irregular migrants heading to Europe will not be limited to Greece but spread all over the Mediterranean.” 

  Turkey has approximately 4 million refugees within its borders, many of which are from Syria, as even more are expected to flood into the country as the situation in Idlib, Syria, continues to deteriorate. 

  As warmer weather approaches, tens of thousands of migrants and refugees are lining up along the Greece–Turkey border, with hundreds of thousands of others shortly behind them, is only a matter of time before a breach is seen, as increased migrant flows into Europe could be imminent. 

  And to make matters worse, this all comes at a time when coronavirus is spreading like wildfire across the European continent. A migrant crisis and a pandemic could be what destroys Europe. 

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 03/13/2020 – 02:45

• The MH17 Show Trial Isn't About Justice Or Closure, But Information Warfare
  The MH17 Show Trial Isn’t About Justice Or Closure, But Information Warfare

  Authored by Andrew Korybko via Off-Guardian.org,

  The MH17 tragedy is back in the news after the start of this case’s show trial in the Netherlands, which isn’t about bringing the alleged perpetrators to justice or helping the victims’ families find closure, but waging information warfare against Russia in an attempt to “conclusively” pin the blame for this crime on its supposed proxies in Eastern Ukraine so as to ruin President Putin’s international reputation once and for all.

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  The world is once again talking about the MH17 tragedy after the start of this case’s show trial in the Netherlands, where four of the alleged perpetrators are being accused of murder. It’s unlikely that they’ll appear before the court, so the entire process is more about show than substance.

  In case the reader doesn’t remember exactly what happened on that fateful summer day on 17 July, 2014, the author recommends that they review his most recent analysis on the issue from earlier this year titled “Latest MH17 Documentary By SBU Whistleblower Shares Some Shocking Truths”, which covers what he believes to be the most convincing version of events that transpired immediately before, during, and after the passenger jet was shot down over Eastern Ukraine.

  In short, the conventional narrative that the Russian-aligned rebels there were responsible is debunked as a convenient cover-up for masking Kiev’s culpability, which in turn also makes that government’s Western backers — and not Russia — indirectly responsible. It’s therefore understandable that a lot of powerful forces are invested in making their manufactured version of the “truth” the “official” one, hence the show trial, which is nothing more than an attempt to “conclusively” pin the blame for this crime on Russia and its supposed proxies in Eastern Ukraine.

  Before going any further, it needs to be said that victims’ families have every right to be upset about what happened, and that everyone should respect their right to draw their own conclusions about what took place even if one doesn’t ultimately agree with them. The author doesn’t believe that Russia or the Eastern Ukrainian rebels were responsible, but acknowledges that some of the victims’ families think differently, especially after some of them staged a silent protest outside of the Russian Embassy in The Hague over the weekend.

  Nobody should criticize the victims’ families and thus make this all the more harder for them to deal with, but there’s also nothing wrong with talking about how their reaction to this tragedy is being exploited by those who are relying upon it to convince others that their interpretation of events is the only correct one.

  Politicizing the suffering of innocent people is wrong no matter who does it or why, which is why it’s morally reprehensible that others are taking advantage of them under the guise of “giving them a voice” in order to push their narrative onto the broader public. The ongoing trial isn’t about bringing the alleged perpetrators to justice or helping the victim’s families find closure, but waging information warfare against Russia, the purpose of which is to ruin its international reputation and that of its leader once and for all.

  President Putin is generally despised by the West but loved by the non-West because of his domestic and foreign policy successes over the past 20 years, which greatly contributed to bringing the emerging Multipolar World Order about. Even his detractors recognize that he’s an epochal figure whose legacy will certainly be studied for generations to come by people all across the world, they just regard Russia’s return to international prominence as being detrimental to their countries’ zero-sum interests.

  Nevertheless, they also wisely understand that soft power is more important than ever before in today’s interconnected, globalized world, especially after the information-communication technology revolution of the early 2000s, so they have a driving motivation to defame the Russian leader any chance they get.

  Regrettably, the MH17 tragedy is cynically seen as the “perfect opportunity” to ruin his legacy by forever associating him with what happened even though he played no role in those events whatsoever, nor did his countrymen. All that’s important to the “perception managers” who manufactured this weaponized narrative is that the lingering suspicion of President Putin’s possible involvement “credibly” exists, which explains the infowar importance of the ongoing show trial for supposedly “confirming” that.

  Back to the show trial itself, it’s predictable that the accused will probably be found “guilty” for the aforementioned political reasons of pinning the blame for that tragedy entirely on Russia and the Eastern Ukrainian rebels so as to deflect from the “inconvenient” facts that have since come to light implicating Kiev and its Western backers, which was explained in the author’s analysis that he cited in the opening paragraph of this article.

  The overall soft power impact of this seemingly inevitable conclusion will likely be minimal, however, seeing as how most people have already made up their minds about who was really responsible. Those who are convinced that Russia played a role will feel “vindicated” by the anticipated verdict, while those who have remained skeptical this entire time could use the newfound attention to this case to share the “inconvenient” evidence that was just touched upon with others.

  The takeaway from all this “legal” drama is that tragedies will almost always be politicized for information warfare purposes, especially if the case can remotely be made that Russia or any of the West’s other geopolitical rivals might have had even an indirect role in whatever it is that transpired, so these countries should brace themselves to expect more such show trials in the future and take steps to ensure that their side of the story is heard by as many people as possible.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 03/13/2020 – 02:00

• When Will Authorities 'Lockdown' America (& How Long Will Quarentine Last)? Here's What The Patterns Show Us
  When Will Authorities ‘Lockdown’ America (& How Long Will Quarentine Last)? Here’s What The Patterns Show Us

  Authored by Daisy Luther via The Organic Prepper blog,

  Yesterday the World Health Organization officially declared Covid-19 a pandemic (like we didn’t already know this.) As well, President Trump addressed the nation, closing American borders to all flights from Europe and announcing some ways he intends to help the people of the United States financially.

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  In unofficial terms, this is sh#t getting real.

  Things are going to get worse – possibly much worse – before they get better. Illness completely aside, this will cause financial problems that many folks will feel for years after the pandemic is over.

  The biggest question people are asking now is, “When?”

  When will the US begin to see measures being taken to lockdown areas or put people into quarantine? What would that lockdown look like? How long will quarantines last?

  We can look at how this has gone in other countries to get a general idea of the pattern. Of course, we’re Americans and we do things differently. Our geography is quite different as is our population density. So this isn’t an exact science. We’re looking at patterns to predict (not in a crystal ball kind of way but an analysis kind of way) what could happen here.

  Here’s how things have gone in Italy and China.

  We can still learn a lot from observing the patterns of the breakdowns there.

  The United States is probably closer culturally to Italy and other European countries than we are to China. For example, Italy is far more concerned about human rights than China. However, geographically, we’re a lot more similar to China than we are to Italy. China has 9.3 million square kilometers and the United States has 9.1 million square kilometers. Meanwhile, Italy is 301,340 square kilometers.

  Both of these things play a role in the spread of the virus and containment efforts.

  What about China? Well, I don’t trust the numbers and information coming out of China to include them in this model by very much, but note that the situation of which we’re aware has been going on for about 8 weeks. The first cases of a mystery illness were heard of when Dr. Li Wenliang, who later died of the coronavirus, blew the whistle on China on December 30, 2019.

  To our knowledge, the quarantines began in Wuhan on January 22. So from the first patients to the initial lockdowns was 23 days. From the date the first noted illness became public to now has been 73 days. From the date of the first quarantines in Wuhan until now has been 51 days. Although the quarantine has been loosened, there are still serious restrictions on movement in China. The country may or may not be getting back to normal, depending on who you believe. If they are not getting back to normal, then this 7-week window is inaccurate.

  Back to Europe. Italy, specifically.

  On about the 20th of February, three cases of Covid-19 were confirmed in Northern Italy. Officials acted quickly to lock the area down but unfortunately, their quick actions weren’t enough. What began as a lockdown of a few villages in the Lombardy region in northern Italy on the 21st spread to a nationwide lockdown on March 9th.

  From the first patients to local lockdowns was one day. From the first patients to the entire country being quarantined was 22 days. In just 22 days, the virus had spread to such a degree that an entire country has suspended mortgage payments, stopped all non-essential movement, and ceased business. Their medical system is so overwhelmed that they are forced to choose who to save and many people over 65 are not even assessed as the hospitals reserve their resources and space for those who have a higher chance of survival.

  Less than a month ago, everything was normal in Italy. Tourists were making wishes at Trevi Fountain, people were enjoying sunny days having coffee with friends on a cafe patio, and businesses were thriving.

  As of yesterday, Italy had 12,462 cases of Covid-19 and the death toll leapt from 196 to 827. In a day. Everything has been ordered closed except food stores and pharmacies.

  This is how fast things can go.

  And Italy is currently on day 25 since the first 3 cases were diagnosed. If it took China at least 50 days of quarantine, then Italy is potentially halfway through the worst of this outbreak.

  Countries across Europe are slamming their borders shut in an effort to contain the virus. Whether they’ve acted soon enough remains to be seen.

  Where is the United States in all this?

  The first case of Covid-19 was diagnosed in the United States on January 22nd in Snohomish County, Washington. Incidentally, that was the same day the city of Wuhan went into lockdown.

  We have already had some small regional lockdowns and people in quarantine after traveling, but the quarantining of large groups of people has not yet occurred in the US. YET. We are on day 50 since the initial case was diagnosed in the United States. However, the first case of community spread was on February 26, and this may be a more important marker than the first case in a country the size of ours. “Community spread” means the illness was not contracted through traceable means, like a family member with the virus or travel history to places where the illness was running rampant. So if we’re counting from the first day of community spread, the US is on day 15.

  If massive lockdowns are occurring on about day 22-23 in other countries, that means we may have 7-8 days before we see major lockdowns and quarantines here. That would put us at March 19th or 20th. We may see some early lockdowns of cities or regions where the virus is rapidly spreading like Seattle and New York City. The lockdowns in other countries expanded in about a week to encompass greater geographic areas and larger numbers of people. This would put us at approximately March 26-27th.

  Now keep in mind, this is not engraved in stone. I don’t trust our numbers any more than I trusted China’s because the testing protocols have been nothing short of disastrous. First, faulty tests were sent out to health departments across the country and then the criteria for being tested was so narrow that many cases were likely overlooked. It took one person who caught the virus through community spread 10 days to be tested because she didn’t fit the criteria.

  The US might still manage to get a handle on this outbreak and contain it. A successful treatment regimen could be discovered. But if you’re looking for a general idea of when we may see lockdowns and quarantines, this pattern seems to be repeating itself and possibly speeding up.

  This chart shows how far behind Italy other countries are in the grand scheme of this outbreak. Based on this chart we are 11.5 days behind Italy, who instituted their country-wide quarantine three days ago. If this chart is correct, we’d be looking at massive quarantines on approximately the 20th as opposed to the more gradual schedule used by China.

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  Graph by Professor Mark Handley, at University College London (Image: Twitter)

  How long are quarantines lasting?

  If the information coming out of China is accurate, their period of extensive lockdown has lasted 7-8 weeks. Italy is right at the midpoint of that, at 3.5 weeks and the situation appears to be nowhere near under control.

  Based on this, I would expect a quarantine or lockdown in the US to last for up to 2-3 months. There are lots of variables, of course, but this would be a good general guide for getting supplies.

  • This article can help you figure out what you need for a period of quarantine
  • This book (which was banned by Amazon) is an even more thorough guide
  • To get a free quarantine checklist, sign up here for my newsletter.
  • If supplies are short where you live, this article can help you figure out some alternatives.

  I have to stress that whether you are personally concerned about getting the coronavirus or not, a mandatory quarantine will still affect you and you’ll want to be prepared. Otherwise, those folks you made fun of for buying toilet paper will be laughing at you for using the pages of a phonebook to wipe.

  So what’s going to happen?

  It’s impossible to predict exactly how the coronavirus is going to affect the United States. Americans are far more independence-minded that folks in China and much less likely to cooperate with draconian containment measures. At the same time, healthcare here is outrageously expensive for those of us who are uninsured, which up until this point may have caused many people to skip medical treatment or diagnosis, potentially spreading the virus faster.

  However, as of today, March 12, a number of universities across the country are shutting down classes until April. Workplaces are taking more thorough sanitation measures. Large gatherings, conferences, and conventions are being canceled. The NBA has canceled the rest of the season, the MLB has canceled spring training, and NCAA tournaments have also been canceled. (source) Last night, President Trump announced the suspension of air traffic from the EU much to the outrage of Europe, and today he said that suspension of domestic travel is also a possibility. (source)

  We know there is community spread in New York, Washington state, and now potentially Houston, Texas. Containment efforts thus far have failed.

  While we aren’t in lockdown yet, anyone who is paying attention can see that we’re certainly headed in that direction.

  There are some things that could change this. If we begin having a lot more positive cases in clusters, it could accelerate the timeline. On the other hand, if the growth in the number of cases slows down, it would show that containment efforts are working and it might never get as far as government-mandated quarantines.

  Either way, if you aren’t prepared, I would strongly recommend you put some plans in place.

  It’s time to make some decisions.

  While again, I must stress, we don’t know for sure what will happen, it’s time to make some decisions just in case.

  • Where do you want to be during a quarantine or lockdown?
  • When will you stop going to work or sending the kids to school?
  • Do you have enough supplies to see you through 7-8 weeks or longer?

  Use this guide to get prepared for the possibility of a Covid-19 lockdown.

  You’re the only person who can answer these questions for yourself and your family. But you should probably answer them soon, or the decisions will most likely be made for you.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 03/13/2020 – 00:05

• Seattle Running Dangerously Low On Protective Gear Amid Largest Outbreak In Country
  Seattle Running Dangerously Low On Protective Gear Amid Largest Outbreak In Country

  Seattle is running out of protective gear for first responders and medical facilities as COVID-19 continues to spread in the hardest-hit region in the country, and they are days to week away from running out if they don’t receive new supplies from a national stockpile.

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  Mayor Jenny Durkan (D) told The Hill  that according to current estimates, there are over 1,100 people in the greater Seattle area who are infected with the coronavirus. Of note, there have been 397 confirmed cases in Washington State, of which 29 have died and one person has recovered.

  Those who become sick enough to need hospitalization are already stretching health systems as city, county and state officials scramble to build capacity. Many people who become ill call 911, putting a premium on personal protective gear that police and fire fighters must don and doff each time they come into contact with someone who might be symptomatic.
   
  “There’s some critical things that we will need very quickly. We have made it clear on what those are. Testing still remains the number one issue. Capacity has increased, but it has not increased to meet the demand or the need,” Durkan told The Hill. “The national stockpile of personal protective equipment, face masks, face shields, gloves — we will run out if we don’t get replenishments soon.” -The Hill

  Despite the dire situation with supplies, Dugan showered praise on state and federal officials, including Vice President Mike Pence following his visit to the Seattle area last week. Early on in the outbreak, she said Pence successfully helped her office resolve a problem early in the outbreak.

  That said, testing constraints have proven frustrating.

  “The thing that has hamstrung us the most and still we are continuing to catch up because of the lack of testing,” said Durkan. “It’s been very difficult to know how much mitigation and government regulation there has to be because we didn’t know what the scope of the problem was.”

  “No one has made any secret that at the beginning of this there were some real stumbles at the CDC. But the line-to-line communication between the city and CDC is working really well,” she added.

  Seattle officials began preparing for coronavirus in January following its outbreak in Wuhan, China – holding cabinet-level exercises to plan for the city’s response. Around that time, a man in his 30s from Snohmish County north of Seattle boarded a flight from Wuhan back home – the first known American case of the virus.

  Genetic testing from the man and other similar cases revealed that COVID-19 had been circulating undetected for weeks, according to the report.

  “It came upon us much more quickly than anyone anticipated,” said Durkan.

  Durkan stood alongside Gov. Jay Inslee (D) on Wednesday as Inslee announced restrictions on all gatherings of more than 250 people in King, Pierce and Snohomish counties, the three Washington State counties hit hardest by the virus. Later on Wednesday, Seattle’s public school district said it would close schools for two weeks. The system was still figuring out details for how some of its 52,000 students would be cared for, especially those who depend on it for free and reduced price lunches.
   
  The number of cases in Washington State have doubled every six or seven days for the past several weeks, Durkan said. In a worst-case scenario, the Seattle area could be overrun by 70,000 cases in six weeks.
   
  “When you hear those numbers and look at those models, it makes it pretty easy to make the decision to take some pretty significant steps,” she said. -The Hill

  According to the report, the virus has already hit Seattle’s economy hard – which will ‘likely fall disproportionately on low-income workers and small businesses that depend on foot traffic.” 

  Large corporations and institutions such as Amazon, Microsoft and the University of Washington have all ordered workers to work from home – leaving coffee shops, barber shops, restaurants and other similar businesses dying on the vine.

  Durkan’s administration plans to help businesses impacted by the virus by delaying business and operating taxes and increasing funding to a small business stabilization fund.

  “Our small businesses, our employees, minimum-wage workers, low wage workers, gig economy workers, those are the most vulnerable part” of the city’s economy, said Durkan. “Small businesses provide about 200,000 jobs in Seattle. The biggest part of our economic sector in terms of jobs. That’s like four Amazons.”

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 03/12/2020 – 23:45

• If You're Close To The Scene Of A Crime, Police Can Demand Google Hand Over Your Data
  If You’re Close To The Scene Of A Crime, Police Can Demand Google Hand Over Your Data

  Authored by Aaron Kesel via TheMindUnleashed.com,

  The Gainesville Police Department suspected an innocent man was involved in a burglary so naturally they requested that Google give them all of his location data.

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  Google’s legal investigations support team wrote to Zachary McCoy telling him that local police were demanding information related to his Google account. Google replied and said it would release the data unless McCoy went to court and tried to block the request, NBC reported.

  The man then searched his case number on the Gainesville Police Department website where he found a one-page report on the burglary of an elderly woman’s home ten months earlier on March 29, 2009. Unfortunately for McCoy, the crime occurred less than a mile from the home that he shared with his two roommates.

  Caleb Kenyon, McCoy’s lawyer, said he was subject of a “geofence warrant.” A geofence warrant is essentially a virtual dragnet over crime scenes where police request to sweep up Google location data drawn from users’ GPS, Bluetooth, Wi-Fi, and cellular connections from everyone who is near a crime scene.

  From this blanket of surveillance law enforcement then try to figure out which phones may be tied to suspects or possible witnesses. According to journalist Tony Webster, “Law enforcement officials say it’s a promising new technique.”

  “A reverse location search warrant differs from a traditional search warrant in that it doesn’t identify a suspect and establish probable cause to ask for evidence of a suspect’s crimes. Instead, it asks for information about everyone in an area at a certain time, working backwards to identify a suspect.”

  McCoy used an exercise-tracking app, RunKeeper, to record his rides. The app relied on his phone’s location services, that were then fed to Google. He looked up his route on the day of the burglary and saw that he had passed the victim’s house three times within an hour, part of his frequent loops through his neighborhood.

  “It was a nightmare scenario,” McCoy recalled.

  “I was using an app to see how many miles I rode my bike and now it was putting me at the scene of the crime. And I was the lead suspect.”

  McCoy ended up fighting back and winning, resulting in the police dropping their warrant request with the help of his lawyer.

  But this isn’t the first time a blanket surveillance warrant has been used, last year in New York law enforcement used a “geofence warrant” against the Proud Boys, a group of pro-Trump rightwing extremists after they allegedly beat up four leftist protesters, believed to be associated with Antifa, outside an Upper East Side event. The four protesters refused to cooperate with police, and authorities were unable to identify them.

  As part of their attempt to find their identities, prosecutors sent Google a warrant for phone records near the conflict. However, they ended up collecting multiple innocent people around the area under their dragnet as well, even though they had nothing to do with the crime. Exactly like what happened with McCoy.

  And in just one year, 22 Google reverse location search warrants were issued in the state of Minnesota alone.

  This type of warrant has privacy and civil liberties advocates concerned. They’re noting that the search has constitutional issues due to protections from unreasonable searches. However, police argue the information alone is not enough to justify charging someone with a crime. But in another case in Arizona, a man was mistakenly arrested and jailed for a murder he didn’t commit, which was largely based on Google data received from a geofence warrant.

  “Normally we think of the judiciary as being the overseer, but as the technology has gotten more complex, courts have had a harder and harder time playing that role,” said Jennifer Granick, surveillance and cybersecurity counsel at the American Civil Liberties Union about another case of using geofence surveillance. “We’re depending on companies to be the intermediary between people and the government.”

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 03/12/2020 – 23:25

• Caterpillar Machine Sales Plunge Most In Three Years As Pandemic Paralyzes Heavy Industries
  Caterpillar Machine Sales Plunge Most In Three Years As Pandemic Paralyzes Heavy Industries

  Just in case the world needed yet another confirmation the world’s manufacturing industries, primarily construction and mining, are grinding to a halt, it got one late on Thursday when Caterpillar reported that in February its global machine sales suffered their biggest drop since December 2016.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  The report, which covers the first full month when the coronavirus pandemic paralyzed China’s economy and was rapidly spreading across the rest of the world “underlines how the coronavirus outbreak is putting a drag on the industries that Caterpillar supplies” according to Bloomberg. While the North American region posted another double digit drop, declining from -11% in January to -12% in February, it was Asia that was hit the hardest, tumbling from a modest, -2% drop in January to a whopping -17% in February, the biggest decline in four years.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  As Bloomberg further notes, the downbeat mood in the heavy manufacturing industry permeated ConExpo, the largest construction convention in North America. In remarks at the Las Vegas gathering this week, which surprisingly has not been canceled, Caterpillar CEO Jim Umpleby said the coronavirus hasn’t yet caused major supply snags, and the company was focusing on executing the plan set in place when he first took over as CEO. In other words, the real fall in retail sales is yet to come, and may be why Umpleby didn’t offer much detail on how the worldwide move to stamp out the virus will change prospects for the business.

  “Our guidance was based on the best information that we had at the time, and if we have any changes to that we’ll do it when we put out our first-quarter results,” Umpleby told Bloomberg in an interview. Translation: expect CAT to pull its entire 2020 guidance in the coming days.

  Fears about the virus’s impact on global growth have helped send shares of the economic bellwether down 38% this year, off to its worst start since 2009.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  But the worst is yet to come, because the coronavirus is not even the company’s biggest threat: the sudden Saudi oil price war is. CAT reported that oil and gas retail sales fell just 3% (a sixth straight month of declines in the segment), however with the industry now frozen with virtually no new exploration for the foreseeable future, we expect this CAT vertical to plummet to zero next month. Trying to put some lipstick on the pig, CFO Andrew Bonfield said Wednesday that oil-market tumult from the past week will impact the oil and gas business, but said that it’s still too early to tell how strong that may be.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 03/12/2020 – 23:05

• Even The Most Powerful Central Banks Cannot Save Us
  Even The Most Powerful Central Banks Cannot Save Us

  Authored by Ye Xie, macro commentator at Bloomberg

  Even the Most-Powerful Central Banks Cannot Save Us

  First, the European Central Bank tried and failed to calm the market. Then, the Fed brought out the bazooka and it turned out to be a dud.

  What the world’s two most-powerful central banks showed Thursday was that they are powerless in dealing with a bug. That’s bad news for global markets, and China is no exception.

  Literally, there was no place to hide. Gold sold off, along with stocks, credit and oil, for a second day.

  European stocks tumbled the most on record and U.S. investment-grade bond funds suffered unprecedented outflows.

  It happened even as the ECB boosted its QE and liquidity tools, while the Fed resumed its own asset purchase programs.

  What’s more worrying is that the stress is emerging in dollar funding markets as banks and investors scramble for the U.S. currency to hunker down. You can see the dollar hoarding in the widening cross-currency basis swap, and falling CNH forwards.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  As a result, the dollar rallied and the offshore yuan tumbled the most since December.

  The Fed stepped in quickly Thursday with massive repo operations to alleviate the funding stress. Keep an eye on that to see if it succeeds in calming markets down. If not, the yuan could weaken along with others.

  China clearly is not in the eye of the storm. Yet its currency and equity markets are now down for the year. The problem is that the contagion of the virus is still growing exponentially globally.  The following chart shows how the number of confirmed coronavirus cases in the U.S. is following the same path as Italy.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Until other governments start to panic, the worst is yet to come.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 03/12/2020 – 22:45

• Canada's First Lady Tests Positive For The Coronavirus: Live Updates
  Canada’s First Lady Tests Positive For The Coronavirus: Live Updates

  Summary:

  • Scott Gottlieb says US can still avoid “Italy-like” outcome
  • Cuomo closes Broadway, bans all events in NY with over 500 ppl, reduces venue max capacity by 50%
  • NCAA cancels ‘March Madness’
  • F1 Australia Grand Prix to be held without crowd
  • Trump Campaign tells employees to work from home through Monday
  • Maryland & Ohio cancel school
  • Dr. Fauci appears to endorse European travel ban
  • Spain, Italy ban short selling
  • Charles Barkley to self-quarantine
  • UK reports 2 more deaths
  • NYC declares state of emergency
  • Cali bans gatherings with more than 250 ppl
  • China sending a medical team and equipment to Italy
  • Arsenal Manager Mikel Arteta tests positive for Covid-19
  • Disney closes park in Anaheim
  • American Air confirms pilot tested positive for Covid-19
  • Italy closes Catholic churches
  • NBA player apologizes for making light of virus
  • Trudeau and wife to self-quarantine after wife reports flu-like symptoms
  • France death toll climbs to 61
  • Houston closes schools until end of the month
  • Spain death toll climbs to 86
  • Ohio bans gatherings with more than 100 ppl after confirming 5th case
  • Gabon, Ghana confirm first cases of the virus
  • PA. Gov. Tom Wolf shuts down much of Montgomery County
  • 2nd Utah Jazz player tests positive
  • Slovakia closes all borders, international airports
  • NJ cutting off nightclub liquor sales after 10pm
  • Deaths in Italy above 1,000
  • NHL “pauses” play
  • MLB will delay start to 2020 season by 2 weeks
  • Chelsea Football Club player Callum Hudson-Odoi tests positive
  • Dr. Fauci says test shortage is major government ‘failing’
  • Rick Scott 2nd Senator to self-quarantine over virus
  • Senate cancels recess, will stay open next week
  • Reporter claims Gobert was careless in the locker room
  • Premier league to hold emergency talks Friday as clubs push to suspend play
  • 2020 champions league tournament postponed until next year
  • US Major League soccer suspends play
  • Trump says we may need to extend travel ban
  • Reports claim once again that Merkel is ready to whip out the checkbook
  • Goldman asks workers in NY to work from home in ‘staggered shifts’
  • EU officials condemned Trump’s travel ban
  • Trump says ‘markets are going to be fine’
  • Spain has approved a €2.8 billion rescue package
  • Olympic torch lit in front of just 100 spectators
  • La Liga suspends season after Real Madrid player tests positive
  • 3 F1 racers quarantined
  • Blackstone advises portfolio companies to draw down revolving credit lines
  • NHL rumored to be planning a league play suspension as playoffs begin
  • Passenger on JetBlue flight from NY to FLA tests positive for virus
  • Spanish cabinet being tested for coronavirus
  • Scandinavia begins shuttering schools
  • Iran reaches out to 3 million Iranians who may have been infected
  • Market participants wary of dissipating bond market liquidity
  • Global deaths pass 4,600

  *  *  *

  Update (2230ET): A few hours ago, we reported that PM Justin Trudeau and his wife, Sophie Gregoire, had gone into self-quarantine after his wife had exhibited symptoms of the virus after visiting London recently.

  Well, the test results are in. And Gregoire, the first lady of Canada, is positive for Covid-19.

  She and the Prime Minister will be self-isolating for 14 days.

  NEWS: Sophie Gregoire Trudeau, wife of @JustinTrudeau, has tested positive for coronavirus. Statement below is from the PMs office. pic.twitter.com/48vZENyqUi

  — Emily Rauhala (@emilyrauhala) March 13, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  As we wait for the Premier League’s emergency tomorrow, news has broke that Chelsea Football Club player Callum Hudson-Odoi has tested positive for the virus and will remain in self-isolation. Callum displayed symptoms on Monday morning, and hasn’t been to the team’s training ground since. The rest of the team and its coaching staff will now self-isolate.

  *  *  *

  Update (2020ET): The Trump Campaign has asked workers to work from home through Monday.

  In other news, Charles Barkley said he plans to self-quarantine after falling ill. He has been tested for the coronavirus, but is awaiting the results.

  *  *  *

  Update (2000ET): Like we mentioned earlier, Arsenal Manager Mikel Arteta has tested positive, and as sports leagues around the world suspend play, the Premier League is reportedly holding emergency crisis talks on Friday, according to the Independent. 

  Many of the clubs owners want play to be shut down and disagree with the decision to continue so far. Some are even pushing for the entire season to be voided.

  Also: In further bad news for the airline industry, American Air has confirmed that one of its pilots tested positive for the virus. And Disney has just announced a decision to close theme parks in Florida and Paris – rounding out most of its biggest parks around the world. They closed Disney Land in California earlier today.

  *  *  *

  Update (1930ET): Seattle became the first major US city to shutter its school system last night, and just a few hours ago, Maryland and Ohio announced state-wide shutdowns of their own.

  Now, the Houston Independent School District, one of the largest in the US with more than 200,000 students, closes all schools until March 30 due to the outbreak.

  At least 17 cases of the virus have been diagnosed in the Houston area, most of them directly related to a group who recently traveled to Egypt.

  Across the US, the coronavirus panic is intensifying, as people continue to hoard supplies, even nonessentials like toilet paper, in a blind panic.

  Attention short sellers: Apparently Kimberly-Clark makes the only toilet paper in the country, Viva, that nobody wants…..even in a nuclear winter!!!!!!! pic.twitter.com/leDPaMZAe6

  — GreekFire23 (@GreekFire23) March 12, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Two new African countries reported their first cases of the virus on Thursday, including Gabon and Ghana.

  *  *  *

  Update (1905ET): Spain reports 869 new cases of coronavirus, and 31 new deaths, bringing the national total to 3,146 cases and 86 deaths.

  *  *  *

  Update (1845ET): Chatter form earlier today claiming that Dr. Fauci personally signed off on President Trump’s travel ban has been confirmed.

  • FAUCI SAYS EUROPE TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS RIGHT PUBLIC HEALTH CALL

  The celebrated epidemiologist said during a recent TV appearance that, if Trump hadn’t restricted travel from China, there would have been “many more travel-related cases”.

  Dr. Anthony Fauci says “there’s no question” that if President Trump had not restricted travel from China “there would have been many more travel-related cases…”

  President Trump has saved American lives by taking unprecedented action to combat the coronavirus! pic.twitter.com/RtZv9qk00D

  — Trump War Room – Text EMPOWER to 88022 (@TrumpWarRoom) March 11, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  On the Continent, regulators in Italy and Spain have banned short-selling amid a brutal global selloff.

  Walking out of the Capitol building after his hearing, Dr. Fauci stopped to take a few questions from reporters, and clarified that enough tests are now available that any patient whose doctor believes a test is necessary can get one.

  NIAID Dr. Anthony Fauci says guidelines for who could be tested for #COVID19 has changed:

  “The FDA has removed those restrictions… You go to the Dr., you have symptoms that are suggestive of the coronavirus, it doesn’t matter where you are, who you are, you can get a test.” pic.twitter.com/nBqiuE2gB1

  — CSPAN (@cspan) March 12, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  We mentioned earlier that three Formula-1 racers have tested positive for the virus in Australia. Well, the Australian Grand Prix, the organizers of which were criticized for refusing to taking proper steps to protect spectators and drivers from the virus, will be held without a live crowd.

  One more thing: apparently ‘fake virus news’ is becoming a problem in NYC. What’s wrong? Too many gullible hipsters can’t figure out for themselves whether a tweet from a random, unverified account is a hoax?

  So you’re saying I CAN’T slap on an eye-patch and pretend to be Snake Pliskin??? https://t.co/ASyrPasgtj

  — Mark B. Spiegel (@markbspiegel) March 12, 2020

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  Finally, in Europe, Arsenal Manager Mikel Arteta has tested positive for Covid-19, the first Premier League player or coach to test positive.

  *  *  *

  Update (1725ET): Maryland and Ohio have cancelled schools across each state, with Maryland shuttering schools until March 27 (two weeks) and Ohio shuttering them for three weeks.

  In addition, Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan directed the Maryland Emergency Management to the highest activation level and issued an executive order that moves the National Guard to a higher state of readiness. The state has only confirmed 12 cases of the virus.

  Here’s the release from the Maryland Superintendent of schools:

  Here is the full release the State Superintendent will put out shortly. pic.twitter.com/HYU9lPKVyq

  — Mike Ricci (@riccimike) March 12, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  And the rest of Hogan’s press conference, where he made the announcement.

  Watch @GovLarryHogan’s Press Conference Live: https://t.co/ZQwBYjxejR

  — Larry Hogan (@LarryHogan) March 12, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine said the decision to close schools and have an “extended spring break” came after consulting with experts, the closure will be “reviewed” at the end of the period.

  We have today again consulted with experts, so we are announcing today that children in the state will have an extended spring break of 3 weeks. We will review it afterwards. This will begin on Monday.

  — Governor Mike DeWine (@GovMikeDeWine) March 12, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  In Italy, catholic churches are set to completely close.

  Rudy Gobert, the first Utah Jazz player to be diagnosed with the virus, took to Instagram on Thursday to thank people for their support and also to apologize for his actions seen in a now-viral video of him earlier this week deliberately touching microphones and recorder during a press conference, in an act of mockery of the viral panic.

  “The first and most important thing is I would like to publicly apologize to the people that I may have endangered. At the time, I had no idea I was even infected. I was careless and make no excuse. I hope my story serves as a warning and causes everyone to take this seriously. I will do whatever I can to support using my experience as way to educate others and prevent the spread of this virus,” he said.

  *  *  *

  Update (1630ET): The NCAA just delivered a huge blow to college sports fans by confirming that it will cancel men’s and women’s “March Madness” tournaments, after earlier confirming that any games associated with the tournament would be played in front of empty crowds.

  Earlier, all of the biggest conferences in the country cancelled their men’s championship tournaments.

  Here’s more from CNBC:

  The NCAA has canceled its March Madness basketball tournaments – and “all remaining winter and spring” championships – as coronavirus fears upend the sports world.

  “This decision is based on the evolving COVID-19 public health threat, our ability to ensure the events do not contribute to spread of the pandemic, and the impracticality of hosting such events at any time during this academic year given ongoing decisions by other entities,” the organization said in a statement.

  Earlier Thursday, major conferences canceled their championship tournaments and sports organizations across the world rolled out fan restrictions and suspensions of play in light of the COVID-19 pandemic.

  The Southeastern Conference, Big Ten Conference, Pac-12 Conference, Big East, Big-12 Conference and Atlantic Coast Conference all canceled their men’s championship tournaments ahead of the NCAA’s announcement. At least two high-profile teams also individually announced their withdrawals from the tournament.

  The decision comes after nearly every major sports league in the country that’s currently active suspended play, and the MLB delayed the start of its season.

  Disney also just announced plans to close Disneyland Park and Disney California adventure in Anaheim.

  pic.twitter.com/P9Xg2ee5Ly

  — Disney Parks News (@DisneyParksNews) March 12, 2020

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  *  *  *

  Update (1615ET): With all of Wall Street in a panic, and officials at JFK scrambling after a passenger aboard a JetBlue flight to Fla. was confirmed positive after taking off, NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio has decided to declare a state of emergency, citing the “intense” increase in the number of confirmed cases in the city, and that the situation is evolving “hourly”.

  “The last 24 hours have been very sobering,” he said. The declaration will allow the city to access emergency funds. However, the mayor insisted this isn’t a run-up to cancelling school. He added that “we want our schools to remain open, we intend for our schools to remain open.” Though after-school sports, PTA meetings, and other activities will be cancelled for the time being.

  As the situation worsens, de Blasio said the city government recognizes the struggles of all New Yorkers during this difficult time.

  “We’re very concerned about people’s loss of livelihood…We’re worried about folks having trouble paying the rent,” de Blasio said.

  The decision comes five days after Gov. Cuomo declared a state-wide emergency.

  Watch the rest of his press conference below:

  Join us at City Hall for updates and announcements on our city’s COVID-19 response. https://t.co/gbnZ4rBiw0

  — Mayor Bill de Blasio (@NYCMayor) March 12, 2020

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  New York is presently battling it out with Washington State for mantle of worst outbreak in the US. They represent the worst outbreaks on their respective coasts right now.

  In an effort to combat ‘fake news’ – always a problem during city-wide emergencies, as we first learned during Hurricane Sandy, the city’s first major natural disaster of the Twitter era – the NYPD tweeted that reports it was planning to shut down the subway were “false”.

  THERE IS A LOT OF MISINFORMATION ON SOCIAL MEDIA:

  ONE TWEET IN PARTICULAR IS FALSE. CONTRARY TO WHAT IT SAYS THERE ARE NO PLANS BY THE NYPD TO SHUT DOWN ROADWAYS OR SUBWAYS.

  — NYPD NEWS (@NYPDnews) March 12, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  So far, 96 cases have been confirmed in NYC.

  *  *  *

  Update (1545ET): California is following in New York’s footsteps and cracking down on large “non-essential” gatherings. According to a statement, gatherings with 250+ people must be postponed until the end of March, at the earliest. 

  Changing our actions now will save lives in the days and weeks to come.

  To protect the public health, CA has issued an updated policy —

  Gatherings with 250+ people should be rescheduled or canceled at least through the end of March.

  MORE: https://t.co/u5A2WbHBO3

  — Gavin Newsom (@GavinNewsom) March 12, 2020

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  LA County took things a step further by banning gatherings of 50+ in publicly-owned buildings.

  Watch the governor’s address below:

  LIVE NOW: Governor @GavinNewsom and state health officials provide an update on the state’s response to #COVID19. https://t.co/qZlr0NemNh

  — Office of the Governor of California (@CAgovernor) March 12, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  In other news, China is sending a medical team and supplies to Italy to help them fight the virus, in Beijing’s latest gesture of condescension toward the West.

  *  *  *

  Update (1540ET): Macron is still speaking. Watch the rest of his statement below:

  Stream Macron pic.twitter.com/4txNDMBgoF

  — FAC FERMÉ Lorie⁷ (@lxpjm_) March 12, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  *  *  *

  Update (1510ET): As France and Germany scramble to suppress their own national outbreaks while casting a wary eye toward Italy – yet they stubbornly refuse to close borders like other European countries have – French President Emmanuel Macron has just announced that he plans to close schools and universities in the country beginning on Monday.

  France also reported 595 new cases of coronavirus, and 13 new deaths, raising its total to 2,876 cases and 61 dead.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Italian officials said earlier allowed Italian citizens to defer mortgage payments due to the outbreak. Macron told citizens that the government would delay a March tax deadline to put more money in the hands of citizens.

  Spain has reported 782 new cases of coronavirus and 31 new deaths so far today, raising the country’s total to 3,059 cases and 86 dead.

  Slovakia, which was one of the last countries in Europe to confirm a case of the virus, announced that it’s planning to close all of its borders to non-residents and close all international airports as part of a drastic ban on international travelers that puts the US travel ban to shame. The country’s decision is a direct blow to the EU’s “open borders” agenda, one Twitter wit noted.

  BREAKING: Slovakia completely SHUTTING DOWN its borders due to Corona virus.

  International airports closed.

  All land borders closed.

  The EU open borders project is being shut down by this outbreak.

  — PeterSweden (@PeterSweden7) March 12, 2020

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  The decision to close borders comes just hours after Slovakia, The Czech Republic and Hungary declared state of emergencies over the outbreaks, despite having relatively few cases. Slovakia only has 5 confirmed cases, equivalent to the number of confirmed cases in the US state of Ohio.

  Speaking of Ohio, the state just became the newest US state to ban large gatherings. A few minutes ago, Ohio Governor Mike DeWine said the state is banning gatherings of 100 or more people, with some exceptions, after confirming a fifth case of Covid-19, a 55-year-old man in Trumbull County.

  Finally, MLB said it would delay Opening Day by at least 2 weeks, meaning it will be more than a month from now before we see any MLB pro baseball played in the US.

  Meanwhile…in Congress…

  We’re going to die https://t.co/pCarZoB4vF

  — Neeraj K. Agrawal (@NeerajKA) March 12, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  *  *  *

  Update (1500ET):  NBC News has just confirmed that MLB plans to announce plans to delay the start of the 2020 season and suspend Spring Training, which we mentioned below.

  *  *  *

  Update (1440ET): Earlier local media reports claimed that the total presumptive positive cases in PA. has climbed to 21, including a doctor at a children’s hospital in Philadelphia. Gov. Tom Wolf announced massive closings in Montgomery County, a suburban county near Philly, after the number of cases in that county climbed to 13, more than half of the state’s total, according to CBS 3 Philly.

  A doctor at Saint Christopher’s Hospital for Children has tested positive at a local lab, and his sample is now being sent to the CDC, according to Drexel University officials. The doctor is an independent physician with admitting privileges at St. Christophers. He was last at the hospital on Feb. 26.

  In other news, the CDC announced Thursday that it has tested 11,000 “specimens”, which doesn’t mean 11,000 people, as most people are tested at least twice. But CNBC also noted that “drive thru testing” in at least one state. In Minnesota, the Mayo Clinic in Rochester has launched “drive thru” testing allowing patients to drop off samples after a phone conversation with a doctor. Patients must be directed by a doctor before their sample will be accepted and tested.

  Read part of the clinic’s statement below:

  Mayo Clinic is conducting a drive-through process in Rochester to collect COVID-19 specimens for testing. Transmission of the coronavirus is increasing nationwide, and other institutions have successfully used the drive-through approach.

  Patients who meet criteria for testing are directed to the location. Mayo Clinic staff collect the specimens, using appropriate precautions, and send them to the Minnesota Department of Health for analysis. This process reduces the need for other critically constrained resources.

  Patients are required to have a phone screening first to determine if testing is appropriate. If approved, patients then will be directed to the drive-through location. There is no additional charge for the drive-through service.

  We’ve also found the clip from today’s Congressional testimony where Dr. Fauci delivered a withering criticism of the US’s virus response.

  Pressed about limited availability of coronavirus tests, CDC Dir. Robert Redfield turns to NIH official Dr. Anthony Fauci, who says, “The system is not really geared to what we need right now, what you are asking for. That is a failing…Let’s admit it.” https://t.co/ZiAHdZMaE1 pic.twitter.com/LiJmUvaMEQ

  — ABC News (@ABC) March 12, 2020

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  Meanwhile, according to the Washington Post, as of 2:50pmET, the US had 1,281 cases confirmed, and 36 deaths:

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  *  *  *

  Update (1420ET): Gov. Cuomo announced during his daily coronavirus outbreak press update that he would close down NYC’s Broadway district at 5 pm Thursday night for theaters with a capacity of more than 500, and shutting down all events – concerts, conferences etc. – with 500 or more people in the city beginning Friday night. 

  Restrictions on smaller gatherings, the legal capacity on all buildings will be reduced by 50%.

  Watch the rest of his press conference from Albany below:

  In Albany updating New Yorkers on #Coronavirus. Watch live: https://t.co/51E6zN04no

  — Andrew Cuomo (@NYGovCuomo) March 12, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  *  *  *

  Update (1352ET): Italy’s civil protection agency has reported yet another unsettling jump in newly confirmed cases and deaths, bringing the death toll within the country above 1,000 deaths, becoming the first country outside China to (officially) top that threshold (we suspect Iran has secretly recorded at least as many).

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  The death total in Italy from the coronavirus climbed to 1,016 from 827, while the number of confirmed cases in Italy climbed to 15,113 from 12,462, marking the fourth straight day with more than 100 deaths and more than 1,000 new cases confirmed.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  With the new numbers, the country’s mortality rate has climbed to 6.7%.

  *  *  *

  Update (1345ET): Rick Scott just became the second US Senator to self-quarantine after potentially being exposed to the virus.

  Rick Scott becomes the second senator to self-quarantine pic.twitter.com/mE2sKz2Tw0

  — Manu Raju (@mkraju) March 12, 2020

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  Though Scott said he doesn’t believe he interacted with the individual (the press secretary we noted in an earlier post), he is taking precautions “out of an abundance of caution”.

  *  *  *

  Update (1345ET): Confirming reports from earlier, the NHL just announced that it’s planning to “pause” the 2019-2020 season.

  The NHL pauses the 2019-20 season. pic.twitter.com/bCi776ZFqX

  — NHL (@NHL) March 12, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  *  *  *

  Update (1330ET): As far as we can tell, Jersey City is about to become the first in America to crack down on drinking and partying in the name of fighting the coronavirus.

  More from BBG:

  Jersey City is cutting “larger nightclub” liquor sales after 10 p.m. to reduce the potential of having crowds of people exposed to the new coronavirus, Mayor Stephen Fulop said.

  The state’s second most-populous city, a Wall Street business and residential haven across the Hudson River from Manhattan, had no coronavirus cases as of Thursday, Fulop said at a news conference. Still, he said he was being cautious: limiting City Hall visits to those with appointments, suspending parking-permit sales and renewals and canceling all city-sponsored or permitted events, he said.

  He also asked banquet halls and large restaurants “to be tracking attendance, best as they can” in case health officials must track down contacts with anyone who tests positive for coronavirus.

  The nightclub liquor restrictions will start this weekend, he said.

  This comes after the PM of Italy said last night that bars, restaurants would also be closed as part of the national shut down. But just imagine catching the coronavirus at a skeezy nightclub in Jersey City…oof.

  *  *  *

  Update (1320ET): Major League Baseball is reportedly planning to delay spring training and the start of the 2020 season, per unconfirmed reports. An announcement is expected shortly.

  Announcement expected shortly that MLB will be suspending operations. More details to come.

  — Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) March 12, 2020

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  The news follows a flurry of tweets like this warning of senior citizens’ exposure.

  If you’ve never been to spring training before: one of the best features is that a huge chunk of the workers and greeters at the stadiums are senior citizens. These humans are most vulnerable to being killed by COVID-19. Shut it down @MLB.

  — Molly Knight (@molly_knight) March 12, 2020

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  Out of Washington, there are reports that McConnell will keep the Senate open next week and cancel its regular recess. 

  *  *  *

  Update (1320ET): Following in the footsteps of the NBA, MBS, NCAA and sports organizations around the world, the NHL is reportedly preparing to suspend play.

  According to the New York Post, NHL commissioner Gary Bettman reached out to clubs Thursday morning to tell them the regular season would be suspended due to the spread of the coronavirus, a source indicated to The Post. An inter-league call was scheduled for 1 pm to work out details. The news will likely be announced publicly in the coming hours.

  The league already cancelled practices on Thursday and told teams to start preparing for make-up games that could run as late as June.

  Per the NYP, since locker rooms are filled with sweaty equipment, every year teams experience team-wide outbreaks and sometimes more serious illnesses.

  *  *  *

  Update (1250ET): Following reports from earlier in the day claiming that JPM had asked its New York and New Jersey employees to work from home until the outbreak ends, Bloomberg is reporting that Goldman has asked its employees to work from home “in staggered shifts.”

  *  *  *

  Update (1216ET): Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his wife are planning to self-quarantine after the PM’s wife, Sophie Gregoire, recently returned from London, where she visited for a speaking engagement, developed a low fever and other symptoms of the virus last night, according to a statement from the PM’s office.

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  She immediately sought medical advice, and is being tested for the virus.

  Though doctors recommended that the prime minister could continue his daily activities while monitoring himself for symptoms, “out of an abundance of caution” (a phrase we’re hearing more and more lately) he has decided to self-quarantine as well.

  The PM will spend Friday and the rest of Thursday doing virtual meetings and briefings at home.

  *  *  *

  Update (1125ET): With testimony before the Committee on Oversight and Reform continuing on Thursday for a second day after Dr. Fauci and other officials were called away, the doctor appeared again on Thursday, and offered some deeply critical words about the administration’s ability to supply enough tests.

  Dr. Anthony Fauci described the response as “a failing” because of the tests.

  • NIH’S FAUCI SAYS CORONAVIRUS TESTING SYSTEM IS NOT “GEARED TO WHAT WE NEED RIGHT NOW” IN U.S., CALLS IT “A FAILING” -CONGRESSIONAL HEARING

  The hearing was abruptly called to recess, but readers can watch it live here when it returns:

  *  *  *

  Update (1115ET): As sports-betting operations and sports fans around the world wait to hear whether the NBA playoffs will be suspended or cancelled, it’s been reported that a second Utah Jazz player has tested positive for the virus.

  The new patient is star guard Donovan Mitchell, who joins teammate Rudy Gobert.

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  The two sick players, pictured together…

  A reporter claimed sources close to the team said Gobert had been ‘careless’ in the lockerroom, after demonstrating his disdain for the public panic around the virus.

  Jazz star Donovan Mitchell has tested positive for the coronavirus, league sources tell ESPN. Jazz players privately say that Rudy Gobert had been careless in the locker room touching other players and their belongings. Now a Jazz teammate has tested positive.

  — Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) March 12, 2020

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  This would suggest that the virus has been spreading among the teammates.

  At the White House, President Trump said he doesn’t support House Democrats’ plan for the emergency economic package, and accused them of stuffing it with “goodies.”

  He also said that the US may need to extend travel ban for longer, or “we could shorten it.”

  We neglected earlier, but in Australia, three Formula One team members have been placed into isolation amid concerns they may have contracted the coronavirus, stoking more criticism of the decision to go ahead with the Australian Grand Prix, the Guardian reports.

  *  *  *

  Update (1105ET): As Democrats and Republicans duke it out on Capitol Hill over the coronavirus emergency fiscal package, Spain has just approved a €2.8 billion package to support social services in its provinces as the country battles the outbreak. Meanwhile, President Trump is telling reporters that ‘markets are going to be fine’ amid the second bone-shaking, trade-halt-provoking selloff this week.

  Trump also said he will not use his powers under the Stafford Act to declare a national state of emergency, though he didn’t rule it out in the future.

  Italy has also proposed a rescue package of €25 billion, according to reports.

  And in the US, it appears the American professional soccer league is following La Liga and the champions league and suspending play, according to Sports illustrated.

  • MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER TO SUSPEND ALL PLAY IMMEDIATELY: SI

  *  *  *

  Update (1055ET): Weeks after declaring that nothing would stop Euro 2020 champions league tornament, it appears its organizers are ready to throw in the towel.

  According to media reports, the European soccer league is planning to postpone the 2020 tournament until next year because of the coronavirus.

  BREAKING: According to reports in France, UEFA are set to announce on Tuesday that EURO 2020 will be postponed for a year until 2021 because of the coronavirus.

  2020 can officially fuck right off. 😷😭 pic.twitter.com/nEM3LZNU03

  — Football Tweet (@Football__Tweet) March 12, 2020

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  Earlier, La Liga, the Spanish top-flight football club, announced it would follow the NBA by suspending its season. Now, football fans across Europe are about to be very disappointed.

  *  *  *

  Update (1045ET): UK public health officials have reported two more deaths Thursday morning after President Trump exempted the country from the travel ban last night, bringing the death toll to 8, according to the Department of Health and Social Care.

  UPDATE on coronavirus (#COVID19) testing in the UK:

  As of 9am 12 March 2020, a total of 29,764 people have been tested:

  29,174 negative
  590 positive

  8 patients who tested positive for coronavirus have sadly died.

  The digital dashboard will be updated later today. pic.twitter.com/6hPeNlUU7f

  — Department of Health and Social Care (@DHSCgovuk) March 12, 2020

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  Meanwhile, UK coronavirus cases have reached 590, an increase of 134 in the last 24 hours.

  Different news organizations are reporting different death tolls for the UK. Sky News is saying 10, though only 8 have been confirmed by by the DHSC.

  BREAKING: The number of #coronavirus cases in the UK has reached 590 – up 134 in the last 24 hours. Two more patients with COVID-19 have died, bringing the total in the UK to 10.

  Read more on this breaking news here: https://t.co/zuuOg7UUcw pic.twitter.com/FCl0puJPQ5

  — Sky News (@SkyNews) March 12, 2020

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  We also neglected to mention earlier that another lawmaker, Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas, has closed his Washington DC office because some of his staff were reportedly potentially exposed to the virus.

  *  *  *

  Update (1030ET): The ceremonial lighting of the Olympic torch was held in Olympia (not the one in Washington State) on Thursday and video has been posted on YouTube for anybody who wants to watch.

  We’re sharing because nobody except 100 “accredited” spectators were allowed to watch the ceremony. Typically, the event draws as many as 12,000 spectators.

  Following rumors they might ask that some of the events be delayed, the Japanese government has said that cancelling the Olympics is impossible, even as sports leagues suspend play.

  *  *  *

  Update (0906ET): Earlier, NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio said New Yorkers need to brace for changes like subway shutdowns amid ‘community spread’ of the virus in the city during an appearance on CNN.

  NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio says residents need to brace for changes in subway operations and Broadway guidelines, among other things, as the novel coronavirus spreads.
  https://t.co/6tCTvDlTAh pic.twitter.com/4vIM247QoC

  — New Day (@NewDay) March 12, 2020

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  “Our society is changing by the hour right now. But that does not mean we should anticipate a society with no social activity, no work, no school,” says NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio about the possible measures to contain the coronavirus outbreak in the city.https://t.co/6tCTvDlTAh

  — New Day (@NewDay) March 12, 2020

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  Now, reports claim an NYC student has tested positive, and that school district officials are temporarily shutting down two schools. It’s the first confirmed case in the city’s schools. Gov. Cuomo said yesterday that the city and state had decided to keep schools open.  The city almost never closes schools, because thousands of students depend on free and subsidized lunches for food, and would have nowhere else to go.

  • NYC SCHOOLS GET FIRST CORONAVIRUS CASE, TWO BRONX SCHOOLS TO CLOSE – REPORT

  Over in Europe, officials in the Netherlands confirmed that the number of cases has climbed to 614 from 503 yesterday.

  CNBC viewers this morning probably noticed Jim Cramer’s rant about the federal government’s response.

  .@jimcramer of federal #COVID19 response, in a historic refrain: “They. Know. Nothing.”

  — Meg Tirrell (@megtirrell) March 12, 2020

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  *  *  *

  Update (0850ET): Former FDA Director Dr. Scott Gottlieb posted another thread of advice about the outbreak before appearing once again on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” Thursday morning.  In it, he said the outbreak would last for a few more months, and that the US has the tools to mitigate the impact of the virus on both public health and the economy.

  Gottlieb said it’s still possible for the US to avert an “Italy-like” outcome where deaths begin to spiral by improving testing capacity to quickly address the outbreak.

  He also recommended the creation of “surge capacity” in hospitals as an influx of Covid-19 patients hammers hospitals that are already busy due to the wintertime flu and infection season.

  One more thing: if you don’t want to contract the virus, remember this: “social separation works”.

  THREAD: In U.S. we face two alternative but hard outlooks with #COVID19: that we follow a path similar to South Korea or one closer to Italy. We probably lost chance to have an outcome like South Korea. We must do everything to avert the tragic suffering being borne by Italy 1/10

  — Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) March 12, 2020

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  Public health labs have been an outstanding pillar. They’re working around the clock. They’re the nation’s backbone of response. But they aren’t richly funded and are being maxed out against current facilities. Only clinical labs have ability to sharply scale the efforts. 6/10

  — Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) March 12, 2020

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  1. It starts with aggressive screening to get people diagnosed. While testing capacity expands its not evenly distributed to places most needed, we’re far behind current caseloads. To many people still can’t get screened. So we can’t identify clusters and isolate disease 2/10

  — Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) March 12, 2020

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  2. Business is leading the way on mitigation and social distancing, filling a void left by policy makers. But shutting down NBA games is not enough. This must be practiced in places large and small. Small gatherings, parties, all should be postponed for the next month or two 7/10

  — Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) March 12, 2020

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  3. We need to create surge capacity in hospitals. Congress must support the effort. Patients and providers can too. Elective procedures should be postponed for next few months. Hospitals should lower volumes everywhere they can. We need to prepare for an influx of cases. 8/10

  — Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) March 12, 2020

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  4. Social separation works. Every day we delay hard decisions, every day leaders don’t demand collective action, the depth of epidemic will be larger. We must act now. We have narrow window to avert a worse outcome. The virus is firmly rooted in our cities. We’re losing time 9/10

  — Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) March 12, 2020

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  We’ll get through this. It’ll end. We have two hard months ahead of us. We need to sacrifice some of the trappings of normal life to reduce the scope and severity of what’s ahead. We must protect the vulnerable. We must act collectively in common interest. We must work together.

  — Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) March 12, 2020

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  According to this analysis, Trump’s latest travel ban is a step in the right direction. But much more needs to be done domestically. 

  *  *  *

  Update (0834ET): Here we go again with this.

  24 hours after Angela Merkel warned that up to 70% of Germans might eventually contract the coronavirus, we’re seeing yet another headline about German fiscal stimulus, though it didn’t do much to lift the market’s mood.

  • GERMANY READY TO DITCH BALANCED BUDGET TO COMBAT CORONAVIRUS

  Of course, this is Germany, and many remain skeptical about deficit spending (even though there probably isn’t a German alive who remembers the Weimar Republic hyperinflationary era).

  But liberals and Merkel have been pushing for some level of expanded spending to boost the economy since late last year. Now, the perfect excuse for more stimulus has fallen in their lap (along with a genuine threat to the economy).

  As Bloomberg points out, Merkel’s decision to support additional spending due to the “exceptional” circumstances created by the outbreak represents a “u-turn” for her party, which for years positioned itself as a guardian of fiscal discipline in Germany.

  Given the threat of an economic recession from the pandemic, Merkel and her economic team are now willing to accept deficit spending to help finance containment measures, according to people with direct knowledge of the government’s economic policy. The virus-triggered crisis is one of the “exceptional circumstances” under the constitutional debt brake that allows for additional borrowing, said the people, who requested not to be named because the discussions are not public. While Merkel’s government is ready to explore additional spending, no decisions have been made on specific measures or an amount. The government did not immediately respond to requests for comment. The change in stance amounts to a u-turn for Merkel’s Christian Democratic-led bloc which for years has upheld fiscal discipline as one of its mantras.

  Some lawmakers have already said they would oppose any decision to suspend debt limits.

  Also remember: During his speech last night, Trump blamed Europe for refusing to close its borders to fight the spread of the virus. His new rules will go into effect Friday at midnight.

  *  *  *

  Update (0822ET): Rumors are flying around (they were mentioned on CNBC earlier, and it looks like BBG just fired off a headline) claiming the NHL might join the NBA in suspending the season just as the playoffs are set to begin. The league is expected to hold a conference call at 11am ET Thursday morning.

  In New York, JP Morgan has finally joined a handful of its peers (including Barclays and Morgan Stanley) in telling its NY employees to work from home because of the virus.

  *  *  *

  Update (0720ET): A passenger on a JetBlue flight from JFK to Palm Peach has been stuck on a runway in Palm Beach for hours after a passenger tested positive for the coronavirus, WPTV reports.

  Flight 253 from JFk, which carried 114 passengers and crew, was stuck at Palm Beach International Airport for more than three horus after landing at around 9 pm last night.

  with 114 passengers and crew aboard, landed at Palm Beach International Airport shortly before 9 p.m. Wednesday but remained on the tarmac until just before 11, when the plane finally proceeded to the gate.

  “The person across the way from me was taken to the back of the plane. He was wearing masks and gloves. His wife was sitting in the same row as me and mentioned to others that he wasn’t feeling well. She said he had gotten a phone call with his test results right before we had taken off, implying that he had a positive test but not actually saying it,” said passenger Scott Rodman.

  State health officials briefed every passenger and crew member aboard the ship, according to an emailed statement to WPTV. Those who sat nearby the Covid-19 patient, who reportedly received a call with his test results just before takeoff, were advised to monitor for symptoms.

  “The person across the way from me was taken to the back of the plane. He was wearing masks and gloves. His wife was sitting in the same row as me and mentioned to others that he wasn’t feeling well. She said he had gotten a phone call with his test results right before we had taken off, implying that he had a positive test but not actually saying it,” said passenger Scott Rodman.

  Florida’s state health department has since completed its “assessment” of the situation.

  Following in the footsteps of the NBA, Spain’s “La Liga” – its top soccer league – has suspended play for at least two weeks. In addition, Real Madrid players have been quarantined after a member of the club’s basketball team tested positive for COVID-19. The soccer and basketball teams train at the same complex and share many of the same equipment, according to local media reports.

  Both teams, plus their staff, have gone into quarantine.

  *  *  *

  Following last night’s Oval Office unveiling of a 30-day travel ban affecting roughly two dozen European countries, though not the UK, which confirmed its 7th death from the outbreak. Notably, the ban will only affect the movement of people (and American citizens are of course exempt) but not trade in goods, as the White House hastily clarified when they saw the market’s initial reaction, and will exempt the UK.

  London was notably silent after the surprise announcement, but in Brussels, the bureaucrats running the EU were somewhat less than pleased. EU leaders slammed President Trump’s “unilateral” travel ban and warned the coronavirus pandemic is an international problem that demands coordinated action (like what Christine Lagarde demanded yesterday?). European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen European Council Leader Charles Michel issued a joint statement on Thursday that highlighted European alarm at the US move. “The coronavirus is a global crisis, not limited to any continent and it requires cooperation rather than unilateral action,” they said, per the FT.

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  Von der Leyen and Michel

  Meeanwhile, Spain’s entire cabinet is being tested for coronavirus, with the results due to be announced on Thursday afternoon, and countries in Scandinavia have begun shutting down schools less than a day after Sweden reported its first virus-related death.

  Notably, the ban leaves out all of Asia, stymieing liberals who were ready to pounce on another “racist” Trump travel ban. Though many are still bellyaching about Trump’s decision to leave out the UK, which is run by Trump’s ‘good friend’ Boris Johnson. But as Rencap’s Charlie Robertson pointed out, Trump’s decision to exempt the UK was based on epidemiological evidence.

  Trump is right that the EU has a much worse #coronavirus problem than the UK. For every American confirmed case, there are 46 Italians, 23 Danes, 12 Spanish, 9 French, 6 Germans and just 2 Irish or British. But the travel ban has minimal effect. US cases doubling every 2-3 days pic.twitter.com/UijASCp2BW

  — Charlie Robertson (@RencapMan) March 12, 2020

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  Across the US, private schools appear to be closing under pressure from parents.

  #Covid19 #Utah my wife and I decide to pull all of our kids out of our private school. I spoke with the principal and two hours later the decision was made to close school until at least end of March. https://t.co/bTSngf2XFr

  — Branden Rosenhan MD (@DocBranden) March 12, 2020

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  This comes after Seattle became the largest city in the US to close its schools over the virus. We’ve heard rumors that Utah is planning to close its public-college campuses.

  But the biggest blow to market confidence last night arrived courtesy of the NBA, which cancelled Wednesday’s matchup between the Utah Jazz and Oklahoma City Thunder, then announced that it would suspend the season for the time being after Rudy Gobert, Utah’s star center, tested positive for the virus, becoming the first American professional athlete to test positive for the virus.

  A few days ago, Gobert infamously made light of the hysteria by ‘touching’ all the microphones in the press room.

  In hindsight, it looks like this might have been a mistake.

  Around the same time, actors and husband-wife duo Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson revealed in an Instagram post that they had also tested positive. The response was pandemonium on social media.

  Moving on to Thursday morning, futures have been limit-down all night once again, just like we saw Sunday into Monday,

  The CDC recommended last night that companies in Silicon Valley and Seattle start implementing mandatory temperature checks for all employees, according to the LA Times.

  Bloomberg reported last night that Blackstone had recommended that its portfolio companies had drawn down on their revolving credit facilities, something that the FT’s Robert Smith pointed out would be an “instant capital hit” to banks.

  Instant capital hit to banks 👇 https://t.co/WzkUkUfgtA

  — Robert Smith (@BondHack) March 11, 2020

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  Yesterday, Boeing shocked the market by announcing that it would immediately draw down on its $13.825 billion revolving credit facility to ward off any “liquidity issues,” something that we warned soon after would could represent the beginning of a liquidity crisis for banks, whose shares have already been badly beaten thanks to the Fed’s “emergency” 50bp rate cut and record-low Treasury yields. Now, with their clients in full-on panic mode, it’s hardly surprising that companies want to bulk up their balance sheets for the coming economic storm.

  The only problem, is that this is essentially the equivalent of a corporate bank run…

  …as companies aren’t so much worried about their own future, but the banks’ future, because why else would anyone want to hold cash in their wallet when they can keep it safe and sound in a bank…unless they were worried that it was no longer ‘safe’ to do so.

  Moving from one liquidity risk to another, during the opening of CNBC’s “Squawk Box” Thursday morning, Andrew Ross Sorkin declared that some of his hedge fund sources had been trading notes and hopping on conference calls to discuss strange trading patterns in the 10-Year Treasury. We highlighted some suspicious activity in a post from yesterday.

  Sorkin’s sources are worried about shortages of liquidity that could once again create potentially destabilizing rictions in credit markets.

  For more on this, we’d like to remind readers of a post from a few years back that offers a straightforward explanation of this phenomenon).

  It seems sell-side analysts have already seized on the issue: Bank of America also warned in a research note about deteriorating Treasury market liquidity.

  Looking ahead, will America follow Italy’s lead in the direction of – if not outright national domestic travel bans – but the ‘social distancing’ concept that has been bandied about in recent days. Notably, CNBC was practicing its own ‘social distancing’ with Becky Quick reporting in from New Jersey while Sork and Joe Kernen reported from different locations in NY. Heading into the US trading day, the WHO said 124,519 cases as of Thursday morning. Globally, we’ve seen at least 4,607, with Italy reporting 827 deaths. In the US, the Washington Post counted 1,281 cases, a count that includes as-yet-unconfirmed by the CDC but “presumptively” confirmed in state labs.

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  Washington Post

  In Italy, the country woke up to a national travel ban and mass closures of schools and businesses for the first time. In South Africa, officials reported the first case of local transmission of the coronavirus on Thursday, There are concerns that African health systems could be overwhelmed if local transmission accelerates, which is why reports that surfaced a few minutes ago about a man who just traveled back to the country – after recently visiting New York – apparently tested positive, though it’s not clear if these cases are the same.

  #CoronavirusInSA A 43-year old Joburg man who had traveled to New York via Dubai returned to South Africa with the virus on Sunday.

  — EWN Reporter (@ewnreporter) March 12, 2020

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  South Africa’s Health Ministry said a 32-year-old man contracted the virus after contact with a Chinese businessman at a time when China is claiming that its economy is nearly 100% back online after the crisis, CNBC reported. It also reported that the death toll from the collapse of a makeshift quarantine in China has climbed to 29.

  Iran’s health minister said Thursday that a national plan to root out all those who are infected contacted 3.5 million people out of the country’s population of 80 million. Dr Saeed Namaki said 270 patients had been hospitalized after being contacted in accordance with the effort, which began last week.

  Meanwhile, on CNBC, Mohamad El-Erian, who has correctly warned investors to stay away from the market since the most recent selloff began, said there’s nothing the world can do now to prevent a recession as more surprises like the NBA suspending its season are inevitably in store.

  “We are going into a global recession We are going to see a string of sudden economic stops,” said Mohammad El-Erian, an economist at Allianz and formerly Bill Gross’s No. 2 at PIMCO.

  So, instead of the “v”-shaped recovery we were promised, it looks like we’ll be getting the “u” shaped rebound, or possibly even the dreaded “l-shaped” recovery, especially if Trump’s battle over the payroll tax holiday eats up more time before the fiscal stimulus package hits. Others will focus on how long until the NBA restarts the season.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 03/12/2020 – 22:35

• Ohio's Top Health Official Says "We Believe 100,000 People" Already Infected With Covid-19 In State
  Ohio’s Top Health Official Says “We Believe 100,000 People” Already Infected With Covid-19 In State

  Ohio’s top public-health official said during a press conference on Thursday where the state’s governor announced a three-week closure of all schools in the state that her office estimates that as many as 117,000 people in the state have already been infected with the novel coronavirus.

  During the press conference, a clip from which we’ve included below, Department of Health Director Amy Acton said that the virus has likely been spreading in the “community” of Ohio, and that, given the number of weeks it has likely been present, at least 1% of the state’s population likely already have the virus.

  “We know now based on the basic facts of community spread we know now that at the very least 1% of our population is carrying this virus…We have 11.7 million people, so that just  gives you a sense of how this virus spreads, and how it’s spreading quickly,” Acton said.

  She went on to explain that the “logorithmic” rate of infection means that for every person who catches the virus will likely spread it to two or three other people.

  “The choices I make for me and my family may not infect us, but we could infect your grandmother,” she said.

  Gov. Mike Dewine and Dr. Acton explained that they knew they were going to close the schools at some point, but by consulting with experts, they figured that now is “the sweet spot…to act”.

  How did @GovMikeDeWine decide when to close schools? When he and @OHdeptofhealth Dr. Amy Acton thought the crisis hit the “sweet spot.” @DispatchAlerts pic.twitter.com/OR95HqUWMQ

  — Doral Chenoweth (@doralchenoweth) March 12, 2020

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  To put all this in context: as of Thursday evening, Ohio had five confirmed cases.

  A little shaken up by Dr. Acton’s comment? Now that the doctor herself will likely go viral due to the nature of her comments in this clip, it’s only fitting for her to explain steps to keep your family coronavirus-free.

  Curious about the steps you can take to prepare for any illness, including #COVID19? Watch this video with our director, Dr. Amy Acton. https://t.co/KGMeEp0OiE

  — Ohio Dept of Health (@OHdeptofhealth) March 3, 2020

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  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 03/12/2020 – 22:25

• The US Navy Is Developing Autonomous Submarines That Can Kill On Their Own
  The US Navy Is Developing Autonomous Submarines That Can Kill On Their Own

  Authored by Aaron Kesel via The Mind Unleashed.com,

  The U.S. Navy is secretly developing armed robot submarines that are controlled by onboard artificial intelligence (AI) which could potentially kill without explicit human control.

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  The Office of Naval Research is involved with the development of an AI system called CLAWS, which the agency describes in budget documents as an autonomous undersea weapon system for clandestine use. CLAWS will “increase mission areas into kinetic effects,” they write.

  According to a report by New Scientist, details of the killer submersible were made available as part of the 2020 budget documents. However, not much more is known.

  Very few details were publicly provided about the “top secret” project beyond the fact it will use sensors and algorithms to carry out complex missions on its own.

  It is expected that CLAWS will be installed on the new Orca class robot submarines that have 12 torpedo tubes which are being developed for the Navy by Boeing. But that is simply speculation. What is known is that the system will be able to think and kill on its own. Although according to New Scientist there are hints by the Navy that this will be the case.

  “The Orca will have well-defined interfaces for the potential of implementing cost-effective upgrades in future increments to leverage advances in technology and respond to threat changes,” the Navy said.

  “The Orca will have a modular payload bay, with defined interfaces to support current and future payloads for employment from the vehicle.”

  Autonomous submarines already exist today and can complete tasks without human involvement. However, they lack intelligence and have limited functionality. Anything more complex than a mere location task requires a human operator to work via a remote communications link.

  The new submarines will have a much greater level of artificial intelligence and be able to perform a wider range of functions without a human controller.

  CLAWS was first revealed in 2018 as part of a U.S. Navy bid to “improve the autonomy and survivability of large and extra-large unmanned underwater vehicles,” according to New Scientist.

  When it was first revealed, there was no mention then of weapons being on the autonomous submarine, only a need for it to have sensors and to be able to make decisions.

  Stuart Russell from the University of California Berkeley told New Scientist it was a “dangerous development” and use of AI. “Equipping a fully autonomous vehicle with lethal weapons is a significant step, and one that risks an accidental escalation in a way that does not apply to sea mines.”

  In “Mind the Gap The Lack of Accountability for Killer Robots,” Human Rights Watch (HRW) poses and important question: what happens when a robot accidentally commits a war crime? The answer thus far is nothing, as there is no accountability.

  “No accountability means no deterrence of future crimes, no retribution for victims, no social condemnation of the responsible party,” said Bonnie Docherty, senior Arms Division researcher at the HRW and the report’s lead author at the time.

  As TMU reported people like Brandon Bryant whom controlled drones for the U.S. military, have a conscience while robots will kill without remorse.  Since 2013, there has been a campaign to Stop Killer Robots encouraging countries to preemptively ban fully autonomous weapons.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 03/12/2020 – 22:05

• Global Liquidation Resumes: Japan Jolted, Crypto Collapses, China Crushed
  Global Liquidation Resumes: Japan Jolted, Crypto Collapses, China Crushed

  It is becoming clearer and clearer that the utter carnage going on in global markets appears to be some massive fund force-liquidating as every asset-class is getting destroyed despite jawboning from The Fed (as well as massive liquidity injections), ECB, Bank of Korea, Bank of Japan, and various politicians around the world.

  After today’s carnage in US and Europe…

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  Things are getting worse…

  Dow futures are down over 400 points… (down 2300 points from the fed spike highs)

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  Japan’s Nikkei 225 is down 10%, the biggest daily drop since the Tsunami almost exactly 9 years ago. This is Japan’s worst week since 2008

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  Chinese stocks are finally catching down to reality…

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  But are still massively outperforming US and Europe since the virus hit..

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  Elsewhere in Asia – total bloodbath:

  • *AUSTRALIA’S BENCHMARK ASX 200 INDEX FALLS 8%

  • *PHILIPPINES STOCK EXCHANGE INDEX EXTENDS DROP TO 10.4%

  • *HANG SENG INDEX FUTURES EXTEND DROP TO 8%

  • *SGX NIFTY INDEX FUTURES DROP AS MUCH AS 9.6% IN SINGAPORE

  • *KOREA 10-YEAR BOND FUTURES DROP BY MOST SINCE AT LEAST 2011

  • *S. KOREA KOSDAQ TRADING HALTED AFTER INDEX DROPS MORE THAN 8%

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  Asian FX markets are crashing…

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  Yuan continues to plummet…

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  Cryptos are utterly collapsing – this is the worst 2 day drop for Bitcoin since April 2013…and it’s crashing on the heaviest volume since Feb 2018

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  Crushing the cryptocurrency back to one-year lows…

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  Gold is also getting flushed…

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  And gold is getting dumped against yen too – BoJ in da house?

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  But bonds are bid. 10Y Yield are down 15bps – which looks like nothing on this chart after such a colossal week…

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  So much for that promise of trillions of dollars of liquidity?

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 03/12/2020 – 21:50

• Iran Asks IMF For $5BN Emergency Loan As Death Toll Soars Near 500
  Iran Asks IMF For $5BN Emergency Loan As Death Toll Soars Near 500

  Citing vast shortages of medical supplies and pharmaceuticals due to US-led sanctions, Iran is urging IMF relief as it battles coronavirus to the tune of $5 billion. 

  Days ago Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif accused President Trump on Twitter of “maliciously tightening US’ illegal sanctions with aim of draining Iran’s resources needed in the fight against Covid-19 — while our citizens are dying from it.” Now he’s urging immediate emergency aid:

  Iran has asked the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for emergency funding to help it fight the coronavirus outbreak, which has hit the Islamic Republic hard, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said in a tweet on Thursday.

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  As Reuters reports Thursday, Iran’s Central Bank chief Abdolnaser Hemmati revealed in a social media post that “in a letter addressed to the head of IMF, I have requested five billion U.S. dollar from the RFI emergency fund to help our fight against the coronavirus”.

  And Zarif in a follow-up message noted that IMF managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, “has stated that countries affected by #COVID19 will be supported via Rapid Financial Instrument. Our Central Bank requested access to this facility immediately.”

  URGENT

  Iranian care personnel are courageously battling #COVID19 on frontlines

  Their efforts are stymied by vast shortages caused by restrictions on our people’s access to medicine/equipment

  Most urgent needs are outlined below

  Viruses don’t discriminate. Nor should humankind pic.twitter.com/GpXCbsh001

  — Javad Zarif (@JZarif) March 12, 2020

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  Iran remains among the top outbreak epicenters outside China, as cases spike in the Middle East.

  Per new reports confirmed cases in the region have pushed well past 10,000, with most in the Islamic Republic:

  A slew of new coronavirus infections pushed the number of cases in the Middle East well past 10,000 on Thursday – and many of those infected are linked to Iran.

  The Islamic Republic government, which said more than 360 people have died and about 9,000 are infected by the virus, has increasingly come under fire, accused of underrepresenting the impact of the virus on its people.

  Per the AP, the death toll has reached 429 as of later in the day Thursday and is expected to climb further.

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  But at this point the true numbers of infected in Iran are widely believed to be well into the multiple tens of thousands, as the country’s ill-prepared and severely short-on-supplies health system is overwhelmed. 

  Zarif concluded his latest appeal for emergency IMF aid by saying, “Viruses don’t discriminate. Nor should humankind.”

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 03/12/2020 – 21:45

• Is South Korea About To Unleash A Neutron Bomb Across Global Stock Markets
  Is South Korea About To Unleash A Neutron Bomb Across Global Stock Markets

  Last June, when stocks were merrily grinding higher without a care in the world, and certainly oblivious of the crash that was about to slam global markets half a year later, we explained why South Korea’s massive autocallable issuance could be “ground zero” of the next vol catastrophe.

  In retrospect it wasn’t: the proverbial “black swan” of the next crisis turned out to be a Chinese black bat, but that doesn’t mean that the world is now safe from what could be a potential volatility tsunami, triggered in South Korea and which sends global markets far lower than where they are now.

  But before we go any further, put your hand up if you know what an autocallable is, and since there are barely any hands in the air, let’s back up.

  As the “world’s most bearish hedge fund manager”, Horseman Global’s Russell Clark explained in January 2019, autocallables, which are fundmentally structured products that are extremely popular with South Korean traders, are best thought of as a service. A bank will offer to sell insurance on the stock market on your behalf, so that you can generate an income from the premiums received. So rather than buying an autocallable, it’s better to think of an investor as posting collateral for a bank to sell puts on their behalf. Typically, the bank will tell the investor what sort of yield they can generate, for a certain level of insurance. For example, a 5% return as long as the S&P 500 does not fall to 2000, from roughly 2900 today.

  Typically, when markets fall, the price of insurance rises, and the bank does not need to sell that much insurance to meet a 5% yield target for an investor. Conversely, when markets rise, insurance prices fall, and banks would need to sell more insurance to meet the target yield. Hence, in normal markets, the risk to clients is balanced. More insurance is sold when market rise as insurance prices are low, and less insurance is sold when market fall as insurance prices rise.

  However, when there are times when this process goes haywire: i) either when a negative gamma feedback loop emerges, similar to what happened in February 2018 with the VIX complex in the US that liquidated 3x levered inverse vol ETNs, or ii) when the market drop is so precipitous that there is a step function lower in the value of the collateral, and local banks flood clients with margin calls, which in turn prompt a forced liquidation of more risk assets, triggering a feedback loop cascade where selling begets more selling, and not just of South Korean assets, but global, as most of the risk assets collateralizing the autocallables universe are not domestic to South Korea.

  We are now deep in scenario II, because shortly after the US suffered its biggest drop since Black Monday 1987, South Korea’s Kospi entered a bear market Friday, while the Kosdaq was halted limit down after tumbling 8%. Furthermore, the Kospi broke below its 200-month average near 1,750 – that’, according to Bloomberg, is a marker that served as a support level during the global financial crisis.

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  The drop was so big that the Bank of Korea reportedly was discussing the need for a special meeting, and would consider “appropriate steps” to stabilize markets, including open-market operations if needed, while closely monitoring bond markets, according to a Bloomberg update.

  However, if Horseman is right, the pain may just be getting started for both retail and institution linvestors facing massive margin calls. Worse, if the long awaited autocallable liquidation cascade is finally triggered, the shockwave that is unleashed in Seoul could rattles global stock markets, resulting in another – potentially even more dire – selling avalanche.

  In a note published today, Horseman’s resurgent CIO, Russell Clarke, also known as the world’s biggest bear whose fund returned a whopping 20% during February’s rout warns that “the continued issuance from Korea suggests that autocallables have not yet been knocked in, and in fact investors are taking advantage of higher volatility to get higher yields.”

  However, there is a limit to everything, and today violent liquidation in South Korea may be just the trigger.

  Below we lay out the latest thoughts and observations from Clark, who waited patiently for years to be proven right on his doomsday predictions, and which are now being validated courtesy of the biggest weekly crash in global stocks since the financial crisis.

  * * *

  Korea and the KOSPI 200 are the spiritual home of autocallables. Historically, the KOSPI 200 was a highly volatile market but the long bull market in semiconductors, combined with rampant volatility selling, caused market volatility in the KOSPI 200 to collapse. Even the collapse in memory prices had little effect on KOSPI 200 volatility in 2019. However, the KOSPI volatility has recently broken out to levels not seen since 2011. (Price as at 10.00 GMT – 12 March 2020)

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  Despite the breakout in volatility there has been no reduction in the issuance of autocallables. In 2015, HSCEI based autocallables were knocked in causing issuance to collapse. The continued issuance from Korea suggests that autocallables have not yet been knocked in, and in fact investors are taking advantage of higher volatility to get higher yields.

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  Meanwhile, the KOSPI 200 is still above levels that have held since 2011. It is likely the most KOSPI 200 strike prices are set somewhere below the 230 price that has held since 2011.

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  Autocallables issued in Korea will often include Euro Stoxx 50 in a “worst-of structures” market. A good proxy for the performance of this strategy is the Euro Stoxx 50 PutWrite Strategy. This has recently deteriorated sharply.

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  The spike in volatility has coincided with a steep decline in the share prices of French banks that structure many of the autocallable products.

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  If autocallables are triggered, then implied volatility should move even higher from current levels. For clearinghouses, the high level of both implied and realised volatility should lead to increased in margins. As a reminder, LCH as per its Q3 2019 disclosures was still running at initial margins at very low levels to variation margins, although both rose significantly. During the strains of Brexit initial margin rose to be multiples of variation margin.

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  One more timely way to monitor margins is to look at initial margins for large index futures. With rising volatility, margins have been increasing even as the S&P falls. To normalise over time we divide the amount of margin for trading the future by contract value. Cost of trading has recently risen to 6.4%, the highest level since 2011.

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  For OTC options, we can use BIS data to get an idea of initial margins. Taking the gross value of margins and dividing it by outstanding notional we can see that values were at a level seen before the global financial crisis and the dot com bubble.

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  Clark’s ominous conclusion: “Market volatility has risen significantly, but margin and collateral in the system still looks too low. Should autocallables break barriers in the KOSPI 200 or the Euro Stoxx 50, then the structurers will turn into volatility buyers, not sellers. Higher volatility leading to margin calls look likely, which could drive the market lower.“

  For much more on autocallables, please read “As Autocallable Issuance Explodes, Is This “Ground Zero” Of The Next Vol Catastrophe“

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 03/12/2020 – 21:24

• Goodbye To All That: The Demise Of Globalization And Imperial Pretensions
  Goodbye To All That: The Demise Of Globalization And Imperial Pretensions

  Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

  The decline phase of the S-Curve is just beginning…

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  Globalization and Imperial Pretensions have been decaying for years; now the tide has turned definitively against them. The Covid-19 pandemic didn’t cause the demise of globalization and Imperial Pretensions; it merely pushed the rickety structures over the edge.

  It’s human nature to reckon the current trend will continue running more or less forever, and that temporal, contingent structures are permanent. Globalization flourished because a unique set of conditions created fertile ground for the transfer of production to China and other emerging economies and the global expansion of the magic elixir of skyrocketing consumption, credit.

  Credit-starved economies which are suddenly flooded with credit (for example, China) experience an explosion of investment in production, infrastructure and in business and household consumption.

  In this boost phase of globalization, capital flows from stagnant developed economies to emerging economies to earn higher returns, and production moves to these low-cost economies to take advantage of low labor costs and lax environmental standards.

  It’s a win-win dynamic for credit-starved emerging economies and stagnant developed economies, as the emerging economies get investment capital, jobs and technology transfers while the developed economies get higher profits due to the lower production costs and lower-priced goods and services.

  Put another way: globalization is simply one manifestation of the financialization of the global economy. Developed-world central and private banks create trillions of dollars in fiat currencies that then slosh around the world, seeking the highest return. Whatever can be exploited in the short-term is exploited and then capital moves on, leaving environmental destruction and distorted economies in its wake.

  Alas, the virtuous-cycle boost phase financialization soon burns through all the easy gains and then speculative gains replace productive gains: since over-investment in production has led to over-capacity and near-zero profits, capital flows into speculative gambles and money-pit bridges to nowhere that do little to actually boost the productivity of the real-world economy.

  This transition from investing in higher productivity to pouring money into speculative bets is so gradual that few even recognize the transition until it’s too late. All too quickly the economy becomes dependent not on gains in productivity–the only enduring source of wealth creation– but on speculative gambles paying off.

  Once the economy becomes dependent on speculative bets paying off, central banks and governments rig the roulette wheel to insure the big gamblers always win. This rigging of speculative markets further distorts the economy and society by destroying price discovery and exacerbating soaring wealth inequality.

  As the financial elites become accustomed to “winning” the rigged games, they increase their high-risk gambling, confident that even the highest-risk bets will always pay off. In this universe of moral hazard, it makes sense to borrow as much as possible to plow into the highest-risk bets. Why not maximize one’s gains at the rigged tables?

  This institutionalization of financial folly created an extremely risky structure that is now breaking down. Bets placed with borrowed money are no longer paying off, and so whatever collateral remains must be liquidated to meet margin calls and pay down debt.

  In the boost phase of globalization, it made sense to maximize profits by optimizing the global supply chain for the lowest cost of production and shipping via distant production and just-in-time delivery. The risks of this extreme optimization for profits above all else is now apparent as dependence on production in distant lands is not within our control.

  The apparently risk-free paradise of globalization is actually riddled with potentially catastrophic risks. Every node in this complex network is a potential point of failure, and since redundancy and less tightly bound systems were sacrificed to maximize profits, there is no way to restore the supply chain with a few nips and tucks.

  As for the Imperial Pretensions of both China and the U.S.–these were as dependent on financialization and globalization as global supply chains. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) exemplifies an era that has already turned to dust, and American pretensions of being able to afford large-scale global meddling are equally embedded in a zeitgeist that has lost its coherence and relevancy.

  The decline phase of the S-Curve is just beginning. Much of what we’ve taken as permanent will melt into air, and that’s far from a negative development.

  My COVID-19 Pandemic Posts

  *  *  *

  My recent books:

  Audiobook edition now available:
  Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World ($13)
  (Kindle $6.95, print $11.95) Read the first section for free (PDF).

  Pathfinding our Destiny: Preventing the Final Fall of Our Democratic Republic ($6.95 (Kindle), $12 (print), $13.08 ( audiobook): Read the first section for free (PDF).

  The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake $1.29 (Kindle), $8.95 (print); read the first chapters for free (PDF)

  Money and Work Unchained $6.95 (Kindle), $15 (print) Read the first section for free (PDF).

  *  *  *

  If you found value in this content, please join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 03/12/2020 – 21:05

• Black Thursday: "One Giant Margin Call" Drags Dow Down 10%
  Black Thursday: “One Giant Margin Call” Drags Dow Down 10%

  Rosenberg Research‘s David Rosenberg provides our intro today:

  “The fact that Treasuries, munis, and gold are getting hit tells me that everything is for sale right now. One giant margin call where even the safe-havens aren’t safe anymore. Except for cash.”

  The  Fed unveiled an unprecedented liquidity facility to rescue malfunction Treasury markets from themselves.. but it failed terribly.

  For a few brief moments, as Dow futs exploded 1500 points higher, it looked like it might just work… but no…

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  Stocks puked into the close! Look at Small Caps!!! The Dow was down 10%! This was utter carnage today…

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  This was the biggest daily drop since 1987.

  Additionally, the last four days have seen an 18% crash in the equal-weight S&P – that is more aggressive than during the peak of the financial crisis…

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  As one veteran trader said:

  “this is the market telling The Fed it has to buy stocks.”

  This is what it looks like when what shred of Fed liquidity that was left finally evaporates…

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  Investors are at the most-extreme fear level on record…

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  And as far as The Fed ‘solving’ the liquidity or dollar shortage issues… it utterly failed!

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  Source: Bloomberg

  Trannies and Small Caps are now underwater since Trump was elected…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  The ongoing liquidation of one or many risk-parity funds, as we noted earlier…

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  …appears to be continuing with bonds and stocks both getting dumped as the funds are delevered.

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  Source: Bloomberg

  And the bond-stock correlation has collapsed…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  The S&P remains above the Dec 2018 lows for now, buit blew through the 200-week average that been notable support…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  Europe was a bloodbath:

  • STOXX EUROPE 600 EXTENDS DROP, WORST DAILY LOSS EVER

  • STOXX 600 BANKS INDEX AT RECORD LOW

  • FTSE 100 INDEX DROPS AS MUCH AS 11%, MOST SINCE 1987 CRASH

  • FTSE 100 HITS 12-YEAR LOWS

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  Source: Bloomberg

  Virus-related stocks crashed… again…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  Banks were blitzed…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  VIX exploded higher – to its highest close since Oct 22, 2008…but this time the velocity is far faster

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  The VIX term structure is almost as inverted as it was at the peak of the Lehman crisis…

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  HY Credit was hammered…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  HY Energy credit markets are getting destroyed…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  Investment grade credit is also really ugly – not just the level but the velocity is unprecedented…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  The chaos in Treasury markets – which The Fed hoped to fix with its $4 trillion bazooka – remain as liquidity evaporated again and yields soared into the close, despite equity ugliness…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  A mixed picture across the term structure today with the short-end bid and the long-end dumped (3Y -6bps, 30Y +8bbps)…

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  And once again, yields were puked higher after the 1430 margin call…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  The dollar accelerated higher again today as everything else was sold to grab cash (but did drop on The Fed’s actions)…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  Crypto was clubbed like a baby seal across the board…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  Bitcoin puked to below $6000 intraday, blowing through all it skey technicals…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  Commodities were all smashed today…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  WTI was hit hard today, plunging over 5% and trading as low as $30.02 intraday…

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  Gold was smashed lower today on massive volume as it seems the “liquidate eveything” plan is in play…

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  Finally,  it is notable that this is the first systemic crisis since the European collapse…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  And in case you thought the ‘fortress balance sheet’ banks were going to save the world… the world’s most systemically important banks crashed to record lows today…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  The market is demanding almost 100bps of rate-cuts by The Fed by next week…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  The deer are back!

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  And if none of that worries you – this might. USA’s sovereign credit risk is rising notably…

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  Makes you wonder…

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 03/12/2020 – 20:45

• Nightmare Scenario: Iraq Detects Suspected Covid-19 Cases In Overcrowded Refugee Camp
  Nightmare Scenario: Iraq Detects Suspected Covid-19 Cases In Overcrowded Refugee Camp

  War-torn regions of the Middle East remain hugely vulnerable for the spread of Covid-19 due to hundreds of thousands of families packed into often filthy temporary settlements already running low on basic staples for survival. 

  And now a nightmare scenario is unfolding in Iraq as the United Nations has recorded the first suspected coronavirus cases inside an Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) camp.

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  The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) issued an alert in its latest humanitarian report this week, noting also the World Health Organization (WHO) has dispatched additional supplies and medical devices to Iraq amid broader closures of public spaces after at least 71 confirmed cases nationwide.

  But with millions of refugees in the region, especially along the Turkish-Syrian border, and after Erdogan has effectively ‘opened the gates’ on waves of migrants headed to Europe, the spark that could erupt an explosion of outbreaks in camps across the Middle East may have started. 

  NEW: #Iraq has detected its first possible IDP camp #Coronavirus cases — a nightmare development.

  There are ~1 million displaced people in #Iraq; camps are overpopulated & lacking in healthcare, sanitation etc. pic.twitter.com/ilqBAgCeHl

  — Charles Lister (@Charles_Lister) March 12, 2020

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  The alarming new OCHA report reads: 

  The first suspected cases of COVID-19 were documented in an IDP camp in Ninewa; the affected persons were transported to hospital, and a makeshift isolation unit was put in place. Sterilization activities are under way.

  Crucially, this region lies along the Syrian border in Iraq’s northwest, and is near Turkey in a broader border area which has over the past years witnessed entire ‘refugee cities’ erected. 

  Surrounding countries like Kuwait have taken proactive measures for heightened testing along their borders and points of entry, but other regional governments have lagged behind: 

  Kuwait is testing for #COVID19 every single expat who arrived in the country since 27th Feb 2020.

  Look at the enormous size of this operation 👇 https://t.co/AOH40qd11k

  — Jenan Moussa (@jenanmoussa) March 12, 2020

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  The WHO previously said it’s especially concerned of an outbreak among refugee populations in war-torn regions of Iraq and Syria. 

  “Refugees and internally displaced populations across Iraq and Syria have been identified as the most vulnerable groups in the region, should the spread of the virus become a pandemic,” The Guardian reported of recent statements. 

  “Health officials in both countries remain under-equipped to deal with such a a reality that seems more possible with each passing day,” the report added.

  And as Turkey continues to allow and even actively facilitate the passage of refugees and migrants into Greece and other EU states, the Covid-19 crisis currently shutting down entire countries in Europe is set to explode further.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 03/12/2020 – 20:45

• China Faces Interest Rate Dilemma With No Winning Options
  China Faces Interest Rate Dilemma With No Winning Options

  Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

  Michael Pettis at China Financial Markets has an interesting chain of Tweets on China’s unsolvable interest rate mess.

  Preemptive Steps Needed to Contain CPI

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  China Daily reports Preemptive Steps Needed to Contain CPI

  China’s consumer price index (CPI), the main gauge of inflation, grew 5.2 percent year-on-year in February, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday. The growth, in line with market expectations, was slightly lower than 5.4 percent in January. On a monthly basis, consumer prices edged up 0.8 percent.

  Food prices, which account for nearly one-third of weighting in China’s CPI, went up 21.9 percent year-on-year in February, contributing 4.45 percentage points to the rise in the index as the novel coronavirus outbreak disrupted market supplies and demands.

  That the CPI has been above 5 percent for two consecutive months has raised fears that China could face high inflation in the long run, which could have a negative impact on people’s livelihoods that have already been affected by the novel coronavirus epidemic.

  Bank of China Faces a Real Dilemma with Interest Rates

  Hiking rates in the midst of shocks like this are out of the question. There are no preemptive steps to take.

  CPI Inflation is at 5% but bank interest rates are only 1.5%.

  Food production has collapsed, but lower interest rates to stimulate will stimulate the wrong things while hurting consumer savings.

  Lower spreads will hurt bank profits and the Chinese banking system is a basket of nonperforming SOE loans.

  Pettis Tweet Thread on China’s Dilemma

  1. It seems to me that the PBoC faces a real dilemma with interest rates. Thanks to still-soaring food costs CPI inflation in February remained above 5%, well above the deposit rate, with 1-year deposits at 1.50% and average deposits much lower. This means…

  2. …that the value of household savings is being eroded by rising food costs, and this effectively represents a wealth transfer away from households, with poorer households being hit harder (both because of limited savings opportunities and because food is a larger share of…

  3. …their consumption basket). This is exactly the opposite of what Beijing needs if it is to reduce its over-reliance on spurious investment to generate growth. If households have to increase their savings rate in order to make up for the inflation tax, they must spend less…

  4. …on consumption, in which case China needs more investment to generate the same amount of growth. This is why the PBoC doesn’t want to lower the deposit rate. But it cannot raise rates either. Unlike in 2000-11, when banks and corporate/government borrowers were the huge…

  5. …beneficiaries from extremely negative real interest rates, they aren’t this time around. With negative PPI inflation, and a 1-year loan prime rate of 4.05%, manufacturers may in fact be borrowing at very high real rates, especially given that all the inflation is showing…

  6. …up in food prices, whereas the prices of the manufactured goods they produce are stable or even trending down. This probably just means that last year’s collapse in meat production – which is the main source of CPI inflation – is being paid for in part by households, in…

  7. …the form of an erosion in the value of their savings, in part by businesses, in the form of high real borrowing costs, and of course in part by farmers. This makes it very difficult for the PBoC either to raise lending rates or lower deposit rates, and of course it can’t…

  8. …narrow the spread because that would effectively force already-undercapitalized banks to absorb the cost. Once food prices drop we might see a very sharp reversal of wealth transfers from the household sector, but until then the PBoC doesn’t have much space for maneuver.

  Here is the Lead Tweet if you want to see it all on Twitter.

  Inflation or Deflation?

  This was the subject of a debate on Twitter. Many see a round of inflation but I generally see it differently.

  The collapse in demand will take care of shortages except for critical things like food.

  China has a unique problem. Low food production and a soaring CPI in response.

  Unless there is a food production problem in the US, the Fed will not face the same dilemma.

  Exporters Hit Hardest

  The global export powerhouses will get hit the hardest by this.

  China and Germany are at the top of the list.

  Deflationary US Outcome

  I believe a Very Deflationary Outcome Has Begun.

  Prepare for another round of debt deflation, possibly accompanied by a lower CPI especially if one accurately includes home prices instead of rents in the CPI calculation.

  Central banks’ seriously misguided attempts to defeat routine consumer price deflation is what fuels the destructive asset bubbles that eventually collapse

  I am not blaming the Fed for the coronavirus and these shocks.

  However, I am blaming the Fed for its erroneous inflationary tactics that blew three of the biggest economic bubble in succession: 2000, 2007, 2020.

  Bubbles are inherently deflationary. It’s asset asset bubble deflation that is damaging, not routine price deflation

  “Deflation may actually boost output. Lower prices increase real incomes and wealth. And they may also make export goods more competitive,” stated a BIS study.

  For a discussion of the BIS deflation study, please see Historical Perspective on CPI Deflations: How Damaging are They?

  Supply Shock and a Demand Shock Coming Up

  A Supply Shock and a Demand Shock are Coming Up.

  Worth Repeating

  Well – Not Me
  I have been calling for lower and lower yields

  People do not understand debt deflation https://t.co/lzrOAq3BPl

  — Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) February 27, 2020

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  Deflation is not really about prices. It’s about the value of debt on the books of banks that cannot be paid back by zombie corporations and individuals.

  75% of Companies Suffer From Coronavirus Supply Chain Disruptions

  The ISM says 75% of Companies Suffer From Coronavirus Supply Chain Disruptions

  Don’t expect inflation out of this except in medical supplies and related items.

  Q. Why?

  A: The demand shock over stock market decline and lost wages has not been felt yet. It soon will.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 03/12/2020 – 20:25

• Massive Monkey Gangs Are Fighting For Food On Thailand Streets As Tourist Food Disappears
  Massive Monkey Gangs Are Fighting For Food On Thailand Streets As Tourist Food Disappears

  Coronavirus isn’t just causing humans to fight in the aisles of Target over toilet paper. Today in “signs of the apocalypse”, hungry monkey gangs are also swarming and fighting – for food – on the streets of Thailand. 

  Monkeys in the country are usually well fed by tourists who visit Central Thailand, but visitors have plummeted as a result of the coronavirus outbreak, which has hit the Asian region hard. 

  The animals shown in a video are reported to be two separate “rival gangs” that dwell in the city, according to the Daily Mail. 

  Half of the monkeys are said to live in the temple areas, while the others live in the city. The two groups don’t usually meet but ended up doing so this past week.

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  The animals are shown wandering separately looking for food, but once one monkey finds a banana, the chase is on. 

  The ferocity of the animals shocked even locals, who are used to seeing the monkeys on a daily basis. One onlooker, who captured video, said: “They looked more like wild dogs than monkeys. They went crazy for the single piece of food. I’ve never seen them this aggressive.”

  The onlooker explained: “I think the monkeys were very, very hungry. There’s normally a lot of tourists here to feed the monkeys but now there are not as many, because of the coronavirus.”

  Hundreds of monkeys are shown in this Daily Mail video fighting over a single banana:

  Hundreds of hungry monkeys swarm across Thai street as ‘rival gangs’ fight over food after tourists who normally feed them stay away because of coronavirus https://t.co/lQZ0sOzwDF pic.twitter.com/8TgrCTBrQ8

  — Daily Mail Online (@MailOnline) March 12, 2020

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  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 03/12/2020 – 20:05

• Judge Orders Chelsea Manning Released From Jail Following Suicide Attempt
  Judge Orders Chelsea Manning Released From Jail Following Suicide Attempt

  Chelsea Manning was ordered on Thursday to be released from jail, after a federal judge ruled that her testimony against WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange was no longer necessary. The decision comes one day after Manning reportedly attempted to commit suicide while in federal custody in Alexandria, VA. 

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  Judge Anthony Trenga of the Eastern District of Virginia said that because the grand jury was finished deliberating, Manning’s testimony was no longer necessary – ending the former Army analyst’s incarceration which began last May after refusing to appear before the panel and testify against Assange.

  Manning was convicted in 2013 of leaking US military secrets and sentenced to 35 years in military prison at Fort Leavenworth before her sentence was commuted in 2017. Assange, meanwhile, was indicted in 2018 on a federal charge of conspiring with Manning to assist in the transmission of U.S. state secrets to WikiLeaks.

  For refusing to comply with the order to testify, Manning was hit with a $256,000 fine according to The Hill.

  Manning’s publicist, Andy Stepanian, said on Wednesday that his client was recovering in a hospital after the suicide attempt.

  Last month, Manning’s lawyers argued for her release on the grounds that detention was unlawfully punitive and served no purpose.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 03/12/2020 – 19:45

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• "Bracing For Impact" – China Shock To Strike Germany's Largest Port In Days, As Trade Volumes Collapse 40%
  “Bracing For Impact” – China Shock To Strike Germany’s Largest Port In Days, As Trade Volumes Collapse 40%

  The worst-case coronavirus scenario is now being realized for German ports, as collapsing trade volumes from China could push Europe’s largest economy into recession. 

  For the last three weeks, global markets have been obsessed with economic paralysis that is quickly spreading across Asia, Europe, and the Americas. An economic shock combined with a virus outbreak is what triggered a macro matters moment for investors, who sold first and are asking questions later, as it appears a global trade recession could be on the horizon. 

  The port of Hamburg, Germany’s largest trading hub, reported a 40% plunge in trade volumes for February. The weakness was a combination of the Chinese New Year festivities and the onset of economic shocks triggered by the virus shutting down two-thirds of China’s economy.

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  Axel Mattern, CEO of the Port of Hamburg Marketing, told Reuters that German ports are bracing for a continuation of declining trade volumes in the days and weeks ahead. The cause of this weakness is purely coronavirus disruptions that caused China’s economy to collapse. 

  “We’re currently bracing for the impact. It will hit us with full force from mid-March,” Mattern said, adding that “the entire supply chains have been thrown completely off balance…we expect container volumes to drop sharply due to the coronavirus.” 

  What’s troubling is that at least a quarter of Hamburg’s trade volumes in 2019 originated from China. This could suggest that Germany’s economy is highly exposed to foreign shocks, with limited buffers to cushion the blow. 

  “And this period of weakness has now been extended due to the coronavirus – and there is no end in sight. Nobody can say how long this weak phase will last,” Mattern said.

  The trade and supply chain shock is expected to tilt Germany into recession for the first half of the year. Chancellor Angela Merkel is running out of options on how to stimulate the economy.

  Merkel has signaled that she is ‘open’ to suspending Germany’s ‘zero-deficit rule’ – better known as the ‘debt break’ – to bolster the fight against the coronavirus.

  The shock was not a black swan, but rather a black bat in Wuhan, which is turning out to be one of the biggest economic shocks in decades to strike the global economy. Now the shock has infected global supply chains and traveling towards Western countries. 

  We noted last week that the Port of Los Angeles, the busiest seaport not only in the US but in the entire Western hemisphere, is also bracing for a “substantial hit” in trade volumes from China.

  Mattern pointed out bright spots are developing in China as some businesses have increased output but far away from full capacity. 

  “What we hear from on site in Shanghai is that there are first signs of normalisation. In Shanghai, more than 50% of employees now go to work. But then again, this also shows that we’re still a long way from normal and a ‘business as usual’.”

  German Economy Minister Peter Altmaier said the shock is expected to hit Germany’s industrial sector over the next few weeks.

  Shipping giant Maersk warned last month that containerized flows across the world would likely stay muted in the first half. 

  “As factories in China are closed for longer than usual in connection with the Chinese New Year as a result of the COVID-19, we expect a weak start of the year,” Maersk warned. 

  Reuters noted that the decline in trade volume between China and Germany has led to a shipping container shortage in the country.

  “I have just spoken to an important customer from the greater Hamburg area. They just can’t get hold of containers anymore,” Mattern said. “If you currently want to ship a container, you have to expect higher prices.”

  Duisburg, Europe’s biggest inland port, has warned rail volumes from China have been reduced, and will likely remain in a slump for the first half.

  To sum up, the bat shock from Wuhan has taken a little more than a month to reach Europe and could start hitting Germany’s industrial base this week, if not next. This all suggests that twin shocks are about to strike Europe’s largest economy, one being an industrial shock from China, and the other being a demand shock in services, as tens of millions of people in Europe avoid public areas as virus cases and deaths erupt on the continent. Europe is the new China; its economy is set to crash. 

   

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 03/12/2020 – 02:45

• 30,000 US Soldiers Arrive In Europe Without Masks
  30,000 US Soldiers Arrive In Europe Without Masks

  Authored by Manlio Dinucci via VoltaireNet.org,

  The United States are demonstrating their power by organising the largest transfer of their troops in Europe on the occasion of the Defender Europe 20 exercises. This country, which only a few years ago sacrificed its soldiers without warning in its nuclear tests, is taking no precautions for its soldiers faced with the coronavirus epidemic.

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  The United States have raised the alert for the corona virus in Italy to level 3 – (« avoid non-essential travel »), and taken it to level 4 for Lombardy and Veneto (« do not travel »), the same level as for China. The airline companies American Airlines and Delta Air Lines have cancelled all their flights between New York and Milan. US citizens who are travelling to Germany, Poland and other European countries are at alert level 2, and must take « increased precautions ».

  But there is a category of US citizens which is exempt from these standards : the 20,000 soldiers who have begun to arrive from the United States to the ports and airports of Europe for the Defender Europe 20 exercises, the greatest deployment of US troops in Europe in the last 25 years. With those who are already present, approximately 30,000 US soldiers will be participating in the execises in April and May, alongside 7,000 others from the 17 member countries and partners of NATO, including Italy.

  The first armoured unit arrived from the port of Savannah, USA at Bremerhaven in Germany. A total of 20,000 pieces of military equipment are arriving from the USA at six European ports (in Belgium, Holland, Germany, Latvia and Estonia). 13,000 others are provided by the stocks that were pre-positioned by the US Army Europe, mainly in Germany, Holland and Belgium.

  These operations, explains the US Army Europe, « require the participation of tens of thousands of soldiers, military personnel and civilians from numerous nations ». At the same time, the majority of the contingent of 20,000 soldiers arrive from the USA, landing at seven European airports. Among this number are 6,000 from the National Guard of 15 States : including Arizona, Florida, Montana, New York and Virginia. At the start of the exercise in April – explains the US Army Europe – the 30,000 US soldiers « will deploy throughout the European region » in order to « protect Europe from any potential threat », with a clear reference to the « Russian menace ». General Tod Wolters – who commands US forces as well as the NATO forces in Europe, as Supreme Allied Commander – assures that the European Union, NATO and the United States European Command, have worked together to improve the infrastructures ». This will allow military convoys to move quickly along the 4,000 kilometres of transit routes.

  Tens of thousands of soldiers will cross the frontiers to perform exercises in ten countries. In Poland, US soldiers will arrive in twelve training areas, equipped with approximately 2,500 vehicles. US paratroopers from the 173rd Brigade based in Venetia, and Italians from the Brigade Folgore based in Tuscany, will go to Latvia for a joint launching exercise.

  Defender Europe 20 is being carried out in order to « increase the capacity of deploying a major combat force in Europe from the United States ». It is taking place according to times and procedures which make it practically impossible to submit tens of thousands of soldiers to the sanitary standards set up to deal with the coronavirus, and prevent their contact with local inhabitants during their rest periods. Furthermore, the US Army Europe Rock Band will be giving a series of free concerts in Germany, Poland and Latvia, which are sure to attract a large public.

  The 30,000 US soldiers, who will « deploy throughout the European region », are thus exempt from the preventative standards set up to deal with the coronavirus crisis which, on the other hand, do apply to civilians. The assurance given by the US Army Europe suffices : « we have the coronavirus under surveillance » and « our forces are in good health ».

  At the same time, no-one is considering the environmental impact of a military exercise of this scale. US Abrams tanks will be taking part – each of them weighs 70 tonnes, with armour-plating made of depleted uranium, and consumes 400 litres of fuel for 100 kilometres, producing heavy pollution in order to achieve maximum power.

  In this situation, what is the reaction of the European Union and national authorities, and what is the WHO doing about it? They are covering their faces with masks, not only to cover their mouths and noses, but also their eyes.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 03/12/2020 – 02:00

• The Moral Panic About Capitalism Threatens American Potential
  The Moral Panic About Capitalism Threatens American Potential

  Authored by Joseph Sorrentino via HumanEvents.com,

  We need to trust in the free enterprise system – now more than ever…

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  According to Alexandra Ocasio Cortez, “No one ever makes a billion dollars. You take a billion dollars.” At least, that’s what the Representative from New York recently argued at a Martin Luther King, Jr. Day event in Harlem.

  Speaking hypothetically about billionaires making widgets, she added: “You didn’t make those widgets. You sat on a couch while thousands of people were paid modern-day slave wages, and in some cases real modern-day slavery.” According to AOC, the mechanisms of capitalism not only allow, they mandate theft. In her view, business success is synonymous with the mass exploitation of labor.

  AOC is far from alone. Many leading Democrats have condemned the wealthy and blamed them for nearly all modern-day plights–a tactic that has proved useful at arousing populist anger on the campaign trail. It appears to be working, and not just in places or with demographics we would expect. A recent CBS News poll revealed that Texas Democratic primary voters view capitalism (in comparison to Socialism) even less favorably than California Democratic primary voters.

  If this poll is to be believed, Texas Democratic primary voters view capitalism less favorably than California Democratic primary voters (?!) https://t.co/iSyzgt4CUE

  — Michael Tracey (@mtracey) March 1, 2020

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  The rhetoric and debates coming out of the left—and, at times, even the right—have fixated on how much to tax wealth, instead of how to help create wealth. With Andrew Yang’s exit from the Democratic primary, we lost one of the few candidates who talked openly about declining entrepreneurship and the importance of business creation as an antidote to economic decline.

  And it’s not just the politicians that have scapegoated capitalism. Plastered across our newspapers, there are headlines like, “Capitalism is in crisis,” “Capitalism is failing,” or “Capitalism, as we know it, is dead.” (The latter was most recently expressed in a New York Times editorial by billionaire Salesforce CEO, Marc Benioff, who amassed his considerable wealth thanks to … capitalism).

  This consistent bombardment is not only reshaping political discourse but impacting how young Americans view the future. At a time when global competition is heating up, and America’s innovation boom from decades past has slowed, the need to inspire faith in free markets has never been more urgent.

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  THE STARTUP DEFICIT

  A recent YouGov poll revealed that nearly half of all millennials and gen-Xers hold an unfavorable view of capitalism. The same poll also found that more than 70 percent of millennials would, if given the opportunity, vote for a socialist candidate. According to a recent poll from Gallup, less than half of young Americans—45 percent—view capitalism positively. “This represents a 12-point decline in young adults’ positive views of capitalism in just the past two years and a marked shift since 2010, when 68 percent viewed it positively,” notes Gallup.

  This ideological shift comes at a perilous time. The world is in retreat from the failures of globalization, and, as resurgent nationalism takes hold in its place, cooperation between economies is morphing into fierce competition. For evidence of this, one need look no further than the recent fiery exchanges between the UK and the EU over Brexit terms. It is becoming clear that a nation’s economic strength, more so than military power, will determine standing in the world order. And America is no exception.

  Unfortunately, entrepreneurship and innovation have been steadily declining in the U.S. for years. We have fewer high-growth firms, especially in high-tech sectors, and those firms that do achieve high growth have been creating fewer jobs. According to economist Tyler Cowen, “These days Americans are less likely to switch jobs, less likely to move around the country, and, on a given day, less likely to go outside the house at all […] the economy is more ossified, more controlled, and growing at lower rates.”

  Regardless of how you assess it, all indicators point to a downward trend. Measured as the ratio of new firms to total firms, entrepreneurship in the U.S. declined by around 50% between 1978 and 2011. Meanwhile, people working for big firms (those employing more than 250 people) rose from 51% to 57% of the overall workforce, and the average firm size increased from 20 to 24 people over the same period. These are indicators that people have grown more risk-averse and are increasingly reluctant to trade off stability to start something new—something called the startup deficit.

  Several measures also indicate that entrepreneurs are less innovative. The ratio of patents to GDP in the US is declining, and the cost of patenting is increasing. The age of inventors, and when they registered their first patent, are on the rise— signaling an increasing barrier to entry for the young and cash-strapped. Plus, as economist Nicholas Bloom and his co-authors have found, “research productivity for the aggregate US economy has declined by a factor of 41 since the 1930s, an average decrease of more than 5% per year.”

  It’s easy not to focus on these metrics when we’ve recently been showered with positive news about the economy. But the startup deficit means lower productivity, and less wealth creation over the long term. This is a trajectory that is certain to see us displaced from atop the world’s leader-board.

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  TRADING IN AMERICA’S ECONOMIC FUTURE … FOR VOTES

  As far as policies are concerned, the solutions are reasonably straightforward: break up monopolies, improve competition, allow markets to work better, and (perhaps most importantly), incentivize the young and ambitious to take risks, lots of them. As financier and author Nicholas Nassim Taleb notes: “the reason free markets work is because they allow people to be lucky, thanks to aggressive trial and error.”

  That trial and error is the backbone to a healthy and growing economy. Entrepreneurs discover unmet needs in society and fill them with new goods or services. They take risks without certainty of reward. They improve on existing technologies and invent whole new ones—the iPhone AOC uses to vilify billionaires on Twitter among them. And in difficult economic times, entrepreneurs help create new jobs and find unique ways to provide society with the goods and services they desire.

  Policy can only take us so far. This is why we also need a shift at the level of political rhetoric.

  At a time when we should be relentlessly focused on stimulating business creation, our would-be future innovators are learning that to be a successful entrepreneur is akin to being a modern-day slave driver. They learn that to take the risk to start a business, or to pursue material wealth, is to start down a road that inevitably leads to a life of immorality.

  We’re in desperate need of a different dialogue. As Warren A. Stephens notes:

  “By virtue of living in the United States, we are all capitalists … I hope for a day when young people no longer reject that concept but revel in it. As a country, we need to reclaim our pride in capitalism and remember that the markets have the greatest power when they are free, and that free markets empower one and all, not just the few and the select.”

  Leaders and politicians have a choice: continue to denigrate examples of financial and entrepreneurial success for short term political gain—or leverage them as powerful tools for inspiration. America’s economic potential hangs in the balance.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 03/11/2020 – 23:45

• US Issues Global Level 3 Health Advisory: Reconsider Travel Abroad
  US Issues Global Level 3 Health Advisory: Reconsider Travel Abroad

  Following President Trump’s decision to ban all travel from Europe to the US for 30 days, The State Department has issued a Level 3 Global Health Advisory, urging Americans to reconsider travel abroad:

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  Global Level 3 Health Advisory – Reconsider Travel

  The Department of State advises U.S. citizens to reconsider travel abroad due to the global impact of COVID-19.  

  Many areas throughout the world are now experiencing COVID-19 outbreaks and taking action that may limit traveler mobility, including quarantines and border restrictions. 

  Even countries, jurisdictions, or areas where cases have not been reported may restrict travel without notice.

  For the latest information regarding COVID-19, please visit the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) website.

  *  *  *

  This is one step away from an official travel ban.

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  This is escalating very quickly.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 03/11/2020 – 23:26

• 22 Year Old FX Trader Pleads Guilty To Fraud He Started While In His Teens
  22 Year Old FX Trader Pleads Guilty To Fraud He Started While In His Teens

  22 year old FX trader Kevin Perry has pleaded guilty to defrauding his investors in an FX scam that started when he was just a teenager.

  A release from the U.S. Attorney’s Office in the Northern District of Georgia on Friday said that “Perry led investors to believe that his investment company, Lucrative Pips, was successfully earning substantial profits by investing in the foreign currency (or “forex”) market.”

  He told investors’ that their initial investments were secure from loss, but his company was never even registered as a commodity pool operator with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the Department of Justice said in their complaint. 

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  He falsified historical returns that he represented to investors while turning around and using investor cash to enrich himself or pay off his other investors. He also falsely promised an undercover agent that an investment of $10,000 would return a profit of $19,000 to $25,000 per month.

  U.S. Attorney Byung J. Pak said: “Clients that invested with Perry’s company were assured they were secure from loss. Actually, Perry was enriching himself and paying off other investors.  We encourage citizens to be cautious with investments, and to remember that if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.”

  Chris Hacker, Special Agent in Charge of FBI Atlanta said: “This guilty plea will be little solace to the victims who lost their savings because of Perry’s personal greed. The FBI is determined to root out and prosecute anyone who undermines investor confidence at the expense of innocent victims.” 

   

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 03/11/2020 – 23:25

• Banking Crisis Imminent? Companies Scramble To Draw Down Revolvers
  Banking Crisis Imminent? Companies Scramble To Draw Down Revolvers

  Earlier today, we reported that Boeing shocked the investing community when it announced that due to “market turmoil”, it would immediately draw down on its full $13.825 revolving credit facility, an unprecedented move for a company Boeing’s size and valuation, and one which was some took as an indication of how frail Boeing’s liquidity state was, ostensibly confirmed by Boeing’s surging default odds measured by its 5Y CDS.

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  We disagreed: after all, why would Boeing rush to draw attention to its own funding challenges by fully drawing on its revolver when it knew full well that it had access to the money, safe and sound, located at its syndicate banks…  unless of course Boeing was in fact worried about the viability of said banks. AS a result, we said that the real reason Boeing did what it did was simple, especially to those who recall what happened in 2008 all too well: Boeing is worried that banks will pull their committed funding, which in turn means that Boeing appears to be worried that a 2008-style financial crisis is imminent, and is shoring up all the liquidity it can, so as not to remain at the mercy of its banks which may refuse to extend it credit at any one moment if their own liquidity is threatened.

  Which is why we also concluded that now that Boeing, “one of America’s most valuable companies, has shown which way the wind blows, expect thousands of less creditworthy companies to follow suit as they scramble to cash in on every dollar in available revolver funding before the banks pull it.“

  We had to wait just a few hours for this prediction to come true, because later on Wednesday, Bloomberg reported that two of the world’s biggest PE firms, Blackstone and Carlyle, have told their portfolio companies to immediately do what Boeing did earlier in the day: “Do whatever it takes to stave off a credit crunch”, which as in the case of Boeing, is a polite way of saying: your banks may pull their liquidity (i.e., fail), so get whatever cash you can now when you can, and not when you have to.

  According to the report, the dozens if not hundreds of businesses – all smaller than Boeing of course – controlled by the PE titans are joining a growing wave of corporations drawing down bank credit lines to help prevent any liquidity shortfalls amid signs of mounting stress in markets. At Blackstone, which has weathered a variety of crises in its 35 years, the focus is on sectors hurt by the coronavirus, such as the hospitality industry, as well as energy firms facing a slump in oil prices.

  At Carlyle the measures aren’t quite as widespread yet, although the firm has been having broad discussions with management teams at portfolio companies and recommended drawing credit lines in certain instances, with the “decisions are based on industries, regions and other factors.”

  Beside Boeing, Blackstone and Carlyle, other companies which announced plans to drawdown on their full revolver were Hilton Worldwide and Wynn Resorts, all reflecting the uncertainty coursing through corporate America as the US economy hurtles into recession.

  Think of it, as companies lining up at their favorite ATM machine to pull all the money that is in the account. It works until suddenly it doesn’t.

  And here is Bloomberg confirming, through clenched teeth, what we said earlier: “A sudden and sustained increase in companies tapping credit lines could eventually strain banks if conditions become so dire that borrowers won’t be able to meet their obligations.“

  See, it’s not market conditions, but a loss of faith in the banking sector, and the reason why it was so difficult for Bloomberg to admit it is that while toilet paper runs do not lead to a collapse of the financial system, fiat paper runs to, and all that would take for those to begin is a loss of faith in the US banking system…. just like that exhibited by Boeing and some of the smartest financial professionals in the world.

  The big irony of course, is that by pulling down on revolvers en masse, US companies can trigger just the liquidity crunch they are seeking to protect themselves again, because as we noted earlier, liquidity in the US financial sector is already dismal and getting worse with every passing day, hence today’s latest expansion to the Fed’s repo cailities among a surging FRA/OIS spread.

   

  As Bloomberg explains, “lenders offer revolving credit lines to strengthen relationships with companies and don’t typically intend for them to be drawn upon en masse.”

  In normal times, revolvers serve as the corporate equivalent of credit cards, giving companies room to borrow as needed and repay when shortfalls ease. Under normal circumstances, the lines are seldom maxed out. Extensive use can be seen as a harbinger of distress.”

  The fact that everyone is drawing down on their revolver, however, shows three things:

  1. these are not normal circumstances
  2. the US financial situation is on the verge of distress, and
  3. they remember what happened in 2008, when one bank after another collapsed the availability on their revolver to troubled companies and sectors, and this time it will be the banks left with holding the short stick.

  That said, oil and natural gas companies are under particular focus as they tend to suffer a spike in funding stress when prices fall, because their credit lines are periodically updated based on market prices, motivating companies to tap them early.

  But why Boeing? The company’s cash flow is one of the most stable in the world… except of course when a global viral pandemic and its ongoing 737 MAX fiasco has sent its cash flow plunging to the most negative levels in decades.

  Meanwhile, Blackstone’s private equity operation is the firm’s largest business by assets, at $183 billion, of which energy accounts for almost 10% of the total portfolio.

  Blackstone won’t be the last as rival private equity firms – many of which have purchased shale companies in recent years funded with staggering levels of junk debt – also are weighing similar actions.

  “From an economic perspective, the virus has created dislocation in the market and fear among the people,” Blackstone co-founder Stephen Schwarzman said in an interview in Mumbai last week. “Once that starts, one has to find the impact of negative consequences. But the turbulence can also have an upside for firms with a war chest, he said.

  “It creates a substantial opportunity to buy assets and give credit.” Or, in the case of Blackstone’s portfolio companies, to take it.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 03/11/2020 – 22:57

• 9 Years Later – How Fukushima Changed Japan's Energy Mix
  9 Years Later – How Fukushima Changed Japan’s Energy Mix

  The March 11, 2011, Fukushima nuclear incident in Japan made international headlines for months, but it also changed Japanese attitudes towards nuclear energy. As Statista’s Katharina Buchholz notes, after a devastating tsunami hit Japan on March 11, 2011, emergency generators cooling the Fukushima nuclear power plant gave out and caused a total of three nuclear meltdowns, explosions and the release of radioactive material into the surrounding areas.

  Before the incident, the Japanese had been known as steadfast supporters of nuclear energy, taking previous nuclear catastrophes at Three Mile Island (USA) or Chernobyl (Ukraine) in stride. But a meltdown on their own soil changed the minds of many citizens and kicked the anti-nuclear power movement into gear.

  After mass protests, the Japanese government under then Prime Minister Yoshihiko announced plans to make Japan nuclear free by 2030 and not to rebuild any of the damaged reactors. New Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has since tried to change the nation’s mind about nuclear energy by highlighting that the technology is indeed carbon neutral and well suited to reach emission goals.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  Despite one reactor restart at Sendai power plant in Southern Japan in 2015, nuclear energy has almost vanished from Japanese electricity generation. In 2018 (latest available), only 6 percent of energy generated in Japan came from nuclear power plants. Coal and natural gas picked up most of the slack, but renewable sources, mainly solar energy, also grew after 2011.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 03/11/2020 – 22:45

• US Prosecutors Seeking Legal "Options" Against Epstein "Co-Conspirator" Prince Andrew
  US Prosecutors Seeking Legal “Options” Against Epstein “Co-Conspirator” Prince Andrew

  Authored by John Vibes via TheMindUnleashed.com,

  The FBI has spent months trying to get an interview with Prince Andrew about his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein, but investigators have had no luck getting him to speak on the record about the case.

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  New York prosecutors told the press this week that the prince has “completely shut the door” on cooperating with authorities. They are now considering what further legal action can be taken.

  Andrew continues to deny any wrongdoing or knowledge of Epstein’s many crimes, despite a growing body of evidence indicating that he was involved.

  Manhattan Attorney Geoffrey Berman described the prince as a “co-conspirator.”

  “Contrary to Prince Andrew’s very public offer to cooperate with our investigation into Epstein’s co-conspirators, an offer that was conveyed via press release, Prince Andrew has now completely shut the door on voluntary cooperation and our office is considering its options,” Berman said, according to the Guardian.

  Andrew has previously promised to help investigators with the case, but has since removed himself from public life. He has also refused requests for interviews that investigators have sent him.

  When asked about the recent statement from New York prosecutors, a spokesperson for the palace told the Guardian, “The issue is being dealt with by the Duke of York’s legal team.”

  Virginia Giuffre, one of the many girls trafficked by Jeffrey Epstein, has become one of his most outspoken victims. She has also accused the prince of raping her while she was underage. Giuffre has appeared on dozens of interviews with broadcasters around the world to share her story.

  Andrew has made no public comments on the matter since promising to speak with investigators after his BBC interview where he made numerous claims that were later exposed as lies.

  Most notably, the prince claimed that he never met Giuffre or even heard the name before. A leak of private emails where he mentioned Virginia Giuffre surfaced just days after the interview, proving his claims false.

  During his BBC interview, Prince Andrew claimed that he was at a Pizza Express in Woking on the night Giuffre says he raped her after the pair visited a nightclub together. However, eyewitnesses have now come forward to support Giuffre’s claims about being at the club with him on the evening in question.

  Andrew was also found in the flight logs of Epstein’s notorious private airplane, booked on flights that went to his property in the Virgin Islands, where the Attorney General for the territory has claimed that Epstein “held underage girls captive” as recently as 2018.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 03/11/2020 – 22:25

• Trump Bans All Travel From Europe For 30 Days; Tom Hanks Infected; NBA Suspends Season: Live Updates
  Trump Bans All Travel From Europe For 30 Days; Tom Hanks Infected; NBA Suspends Season: Live Updates

  Summary:

  • WHO declares Covid-19 is a pandemic
  • President Trump declares a travel ban from all European countries (not UK)
  • Tom Hanks, wife announce they have the Coronavirus
  • NBA suspends all games until further notice
  • Utah Jazz player Rudy Gobert has tested positive for coronavirus.
  • LA confirms first death
  • Seattle schools close for two weeks
  • Italy closes stores
  • MGM says guest at Vegas’s ‘The Mirage’ tested positive
  • Denmark closes schools, will send ‘non-critical’ public employees home to work
  • New Jersey case total climbs to 23
  • Juve player Daniele Rugani
  • DC Mayor declares public health emergency
  • Congressional doctor says up to
  • Cuomo confirms 39 new cases in NY, raising total to 212
  • First death in Indonesia
  • Confirmed cases in France top 2,000
  • Washington State to ban events over 200
  • Details of cruiseline industry’s ‘health and safety proposal’ leak
  • ‘Waffle House’ employee in Atlanta confirmed
  • UK reports 7th death
  • Chicago cancels St. Paddy’s Day parade
  • NY sends in National Guard
  • IADB cancels meeting in Colombia as virus spreads across Latin America
  • Mnuchin says first part of virus stimulus plan will be ready in 2 days
  • Utah reportedly planning to shut public college and university campuses
  • Dr. Fauci warns virus 10x more deadly than flu and could infect millions if not handled early
  • Australia passes A$18 billion stimulus package
  • Seoul says 99 cases tied to call center
  • FEMA evacuates Atlanta office over coronavirus scare
  • 3 Boeing workers test positie
  • Washington DC advises cancellation or postponement of all gatherings with more than 1,000 people
  • Harvard to prorate room and board for students
  • US cases surpass 1,000
  • UK Health Minister catches virus
  • Ireland, Bulgaria, Sweden report first deaths
  • Connecticut declares state of emergency
  • UK total hits 456 following largest daily jump on record (83 new cases)
  • Global cases pass 120,000
  • South Korea reports new outbreak in call center
  • Japan reportedly planning to declare state of emergency

  *  *  *

  Update (2130ET): Tom Hanks and his wife, Rita Wilson, have tested positive for the coronavirus during a trip to Australia, he said in a Wednesday Instagram post.

  Hello, folks. Rita and I are down here in Australia. We felt a bit tired, like we had colds, and some body aches. Rita had some chills that came and went. Slight fevers too. To play things right, as is needed in the world right now, we were tested for the Coronavirus, and were found to be positive.

  Well, now. What to do next? The Medical Officials have protocols that must be followed. We Hanks’ will be tested, observed, and isolated for as long as public health and safety requires. Not much more to it than a one-day-at-a-time approach, no?

  We’ll keep the world posted and updated.

  Take care of yourselves!
  Hanx!

  In separate news, Utah Jazz All-Star Rudy Gobert tested positive for coronavirus; “sources say Gobert is feeling good, strong and stable — and was feeling strong enough to play tonight.” The NBA’s reaction was instant: the game Gobert was playing in was canceled, and both the Jazz and the Oklahoma City Thunder teams and lockerrooms are currently quarantined. Nobody has left Chesapeake Arena.

  Both teams and lockerrooms are currently quarantined. Nobody has left Chesapeake Arena

  — Tony Jones (@Tjonesonthenba) March 12, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Moments later the NBA announced it would suspend the season until further notice.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  * * *

  Update (2110ET): President Trump has ordered a complete travel ban from European nations for the next 30 days (beginning at midnight on Friday). The ban does not include the United Kingdom. Speaking from the Oval Office, Trump called the coronavirus a “horrible infection” and said he was addressing the nation to talk about the “unprecedented response to the coronavirus outbreak.”

  #BREAKING: President @realDonaldTrump announces a new travel ban on all of Europe for 30 days. pic.twitter.com/ALBWcNx5ke

  — Washington Examiner (@dcexaminer) March 12, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jshttps://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  While Trump initially announced that the ban would also include “trade and cargo”, a subsequent clarification from the White House, perhaps upon seeing the market’s reaction, made it clear that Trump misspoke, and the ban does not apply to goods and trade.

  Hoping to get the payroll tax cut approved by both Republicans and Democrats, and please remember, very important for all countries & businesses to know that trade will in no way be affected by the 30-day restriction on travel from Europe. The restriction stops people not goods.

  — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 12, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Additionally, Trump laid out his plans for taking emergency action to provide relief for those suffering financial hardship due to the virus.

  The President also said health insurance companies had agreed to waive all co-payments for coronavirus treatments and extend insurance coverage to cover coronavirus treatments.

  *  *  *

  Update (1950ET): As states around the country mull whether to follow Washington and shutter their schools, we’ve received a reader tip claiming that Utah Gov Gary Herbert will announce on Thursday at 9 am MT that the state is shutting down all its public campuses of higher education. A press release will follow. The official date and duration is not know at this time.

  Again, that’s according to an as-yet-unconfirmed tip, so treat it accordingly.

  Of course, if this is accurate, that’s just another ~20,000 college kids about to go on an extended, cut-rate spring break.

  *  *  *

  Update (1937ET): Seoul has just confirmed that 99 cases have now been tied to an outbreak at a call center in Seoul’s Guro district, one of the busiest and most crowded parts of town. Low paid workers commuting from far away helped pass the infection along their route, creating another outbreak just as South Korea was getting the outbreak in the city of Daegu under contol.

  Seoul Mayor Park Won-soon made the announcement early Thursday in Seoul. It’s unclear whether these constitute new, or already counted cases.

  Australia just announced a A$17.7 billion stimulus package to bolster its economy against the fallout from the virus, joining what’s becoming a growing list of developed countries that have acted more quickly than the White House to address that aspect of the crisis.

  To be sure, the Trump administration deserves credit for swiftly working out a compromise with Democrats to pass an $8.3 billion spending package that increases funding for the CDC, FDA and the other agencies within DHHS, dole out money to the states, buy vaccines when they’re available and $1.25 billion for “international activities.”

  *  *  *

  Update (1820ET): Juventus, a football club based in Turin, a city in Piedmont situated just outside Italy’s initial exclusion zone, just confirmed that center-back Daniele Rugani has tested positive for the coronavirus, though it’s not yet clear who.

  BREAKING: Juventus centre-back Daniele Rugani has tested positive for coronavirus, the Serie A club have confirmed.https://t.co/PWNnhoOE5z

  — Sky Sports News (@SkySportsNews) March 11, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  This is the first time a Serie A football club has confirmed that one of its top players has been infected.

  Juventus’ leaked line-up next game: https://t.co/6rQ1HZkzKk pic.twitter.com/PNlbg9TMfA

  — J (@ln1982) March 11, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  And suddenly, it seems clear that Italian soccer’s plan to ban fans at league contests is truly inadequate.

  Juventus played Lyon recently.

  Lyon played PSG recently.

  PSG played Dortmund tonight.

  Etc etc etc.

  — Stan Collymore (@StanCollymore) March 11, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Immediately, most fans thoughts probably turned to Cristiano Ronaldo, the club’s star player.

  Earlier in the US, Texas reported that a toddler was among its latest batch of confirmed cases for Covid-19. Another characteristic that differentiates Covid-19 from the flu is that young children are also at risk.

  *   *  *

  Update (1650ET): Italy has confirmed that it will order all stores in the country that sell items other than medicine and food to close. Factories can continue working, but all restaurants and bars must close as well. The prime minister stressed that there is “no need for a run on supermarkets.”

  Watch Conte’s address live:

  *  *  *

  Update (1635ET): NJ Governor and former Goldmanite Phil Murphy just announced 8 more cases in the state, bringing its total to 23. The state has also confirmed its first case of “community spread”.

  UPDATE: We now have 8 more presumptive positive cases of #COVID19 in New Jersey.
  • 3 female cases, 5 male cases
  • 4 cases from Bergen County, 2 cases from Middlesex County, and 2 cases from Monmouth County
  • Range in age from 17- to 66-years-old

  — Governor Phil Murphy (@GovMurphy) March 11, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Current #COVID19 statewide stats:
  • Presumptive Positive Tests: 23
  • Negative Tests: 57
  • Tests in Process: 20
  • Persons Under Investigation: 37
  • Deaths: 1

  For regular updates: https://t.co/UyohzX5yGk

  — Governor Phil Murphy (@GovMurphy) March 11, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  We’ve received $14 million in federal grants from @CDCgov to assist in our ongoing efforts to contain the spread of #COVID19. We’re working around the clock with our local, state, and federal partners to protect the health of New Jerseyans.

  — Governor Phil Murphy (@GovMurphy) March 11, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Watch the rest of the press conference below courtesy of 10 Philly:

  https://nbcphiladelphia.com/portableplayer/?CID=1:12:2322701&videoID=1709781059679&origin=nbcphiladelphia.com&fullWidth=y

   

  https://nbcphiladelphia.com/portableplayer/?CID=1:12:2322701&videoID=1709781059679&origin=nbcphiladelphia.com&fullWidth=y

  In other news, the NCAA’s annual “March Madness” basketball tournament games in Ohio will be played in front of empty crowds, with only essential staff present and “limited family attendance,” NCAA President Mark Emmert said in a statement:

  NCAA President Mark Emmert statement on limiting attendance at NCAA events: https://t.co/TIHHJjdse5 pic.twitter.com/8I1HdceDfN

  — NCAA (@NCAA) March 11, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Effectively cancelling dozens of live basketball games is just one ore huge blow to consumption at a very testy time. Though we suspect millions will still tune in from home.

  Full panic. Making a recession inevitable https://t.co/NUcRtNvtyi

  — GreekFire23 (@GreekFire23) March 11, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Sports games are being cancelled around the globe: Italian soccer made a similar determination earlier.

  *  *  *

  Update (1625ET): Washington DC Mayor Muriel Bowser has declared a public health emergency in order to access emergency funds to help her city combat the crisis.

  Watch the rest of today’s live update below:

  LIVE: Providing an update on coronavirus (COVID-19) cases in the District. For a stream with captions visit https://t.co/44CwI7bWqr. To learn more visit https://t.co/MEWs6uPfsI. https://t.co/Z3TuyCZEHf

  — Mayor Muriel Bowser (@MayorBowser) March 11, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  *  *  *

  Update (1535ET): MGM Resorts said a female guest at the Mirage, one of its Las Vegas casinos, has tested positive for the coronavirus. The woman, who visited the city for an event featuring many bold-faced names recently, is from New York. The news comes after the company announced plans to shut down its buffets at seven of its resorts in Las Vegas.

  The company said it’s tracing contacts that the patient might have had, and is in the process of doing a “deep clean” of the room.

  *  *  *

  Update (1522ET): LA County health officials announced on Wednesday that one of their patients had succumbed to the virus, marking the second death in California from the virus and the first in LA County, a local TV station reports. They also announced another 6 confirmed cases, bringing the county total to 27.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  County health officials announced the unfortunate news during a press update:

  #BREAKING: Los Angeles County reported its first death related to the #coronavirus outbreak on Wednesday, as county health officials announced six additional cases, bringing the county’s total to 27. https://t.co/3mZiAyy5iw

  — FOX 11 Los Angeles (@FOXLA) March 11, 2020

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  The victim was a woman over the age of 60 who died after contracting the virus, according to County Health Director Dr. Barbara Ferrer. The woman, who has not been publicly identified, was visiting Los Angeles County and had underlying health conditions.

  As one observer noted about Ferrer during the press conference…

  #BREAKING: Los Angeles County reported its first death related to the #coronavirus outbreak on Wednesday, as county health officials announced six additional cases, bringing the county’s total to 27. https://t.co/3mZiAyy5iw

  — FOX 11 Los Angeles (@FOXLA) March 11, 2020

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  The doctor reporting the LA county death was sniffling for her life lord god help us

  — mariah smith (@mRiah) March 11, 2020

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  Meanwhile, the CDC’s Dr. Nancy Messonnier is delivering her daily update:

  CDC Briefing Room: Dr. Nancy Messonnier gives an update on #COVID19. For more info visit https://t.co/rObN2b0O9V pic.twitter.com/1kkqI7HJy9

  — Dr. Robert R. Redfield (@CDCDirector) March 11, 2020

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  In a first for major cities, the Seattle Times just reported that all Seattle schools will close on Friday for “a minimum of two weeks” to thwart the virus’s spread. The reporters cited a copy of an email sent to school administrators.

  The decision was reportedly made after “conferring” with county and school officials. Inslee earlier urged all schools in the state to prepare for having students finish their studies for the year online.

  On Wednesday, two schools in Seattle were already closed due to virus exposure fears.

  The email instructs principals to treat the closure as if they were going on spring break, and lists some guidance for going forward.

  “We know you do not have time to do everything and we trust that you will do your best given the circumstances,” the email said.

  The announcement comes after the district’s early move to stay open in an effort to make sure children don’t suddenly see a loss in services.

  NY Gov. Cuomo said earlier that the state would do everything it could to avoid shutting NYC schools (NYC schools rarely close, due to the fact that many students who are on subsidized lunch wouldn’t eat without school).

  Further north in Denmark, officials announced that all schools and universities in the country would be closed until further notice.

  And additionally, one twitter user just tallied up a breakdown of all the cases confirmed in Italy:

  Coronavirus cases, Italy:

  Lombardy: 7,280
  Emilia-Romagna: 1,739
  Veneto: 1,023
  Piedmont: 501
  Marche: 479
  Tuscany: 320
  Liguria: 194
  Campania: 154
  Lazio: 150
  Friuli-VG: 126
  Sicily: 83
  Puglia: 77
  Trento: 77
  Bolzano: 75
  Umbria: 46
  Abruzzo: 38
  Sardinia: 37
  Aosta Valley: 20

  — Norbert Elekes (@NorbertElekes) March 11, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  *  *  *

  Update (1445ET): The UK has just reported its 7th death, another elderly patient, according to media reports.

  In other news, the House Oversight Committee meeting where Dr. Fauci and Dr. Redfield were answering questions won’t resume until tomorrow.

  Chairwoman Maloney says Fauci and Redfield have been “unavoidably detained” at the White House and we don’t know what is going on but they cannot come back.”

  The House Oversight Committee hearing on #COVID2019 response will resume Thursday at 11 a.m.

  — Brianna Ehley (@Briannaehley) March 11, 2020

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  *  *  *

  Update (1430ET): France has just announced roughly 500 new coronavirus infections, and more than a dozen more deaths, bringing the total above 2,000.

  • FRANCE CONFIRMS 2281 CORONAVIRUS CASES, 48 DEATHS AS OF WED.

  *  *  *

  Update (1410ET): During his Wednesday press conference, Cuomo confirmed that the state had succeeded in contracting with 28 private labs to speed up coronavirus tests. He also confirmed 39 new cases in NY, bringing the state total to 212, adding that “numbers will continue to go up dramatically.”

  Giving New Yorkers an update on #Coronavirus. Watch live: https://t.co/JuLCeU2Po9

  — Andrew Cuomo (@NYGovCuomo) March 11, 2020

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  NYS will start contracting with private labs in New York to increase our #Coronavirus testing capacity. I have spoken with 28 labs today.

  We are quickly mobilizing to get these private labs online as soon as possible.

  — Andrew Cuomo (@NYGovCuomo) March 11, 2020

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  Meanwhile, CNBC’s Eamon Javers reported that President Trump is considering an emergency declaration for all of the US under the “Stafford Act”, which would open up more federal money via FEMA

  A White House official tells me President Trump is considering issuing a disaster declaration for the entire United States under the Stafford Act. No decision yet but this would free up a lot of funding and put FEMA fully in the fight against the virus.

  — Eamon Javers (@EamonJavers) March 11, 2020

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  This would put FEMA “fully in the fight” against the virus.

  In other news, just a few days after confirming that it had reopened nearly all of its stores on mainland China, Apple said Wednesday that all stores in Italy would be closed “until further notice.”

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Boeing employees saw more bad news on Wednesday as the troubled aerospace maker said Wednesday that it would halt hiring until further notice.

  Meanwhile, in Senegal, officials reported their 5th case of the virus as it continues its creep across Latin America and Africa.

  *  *  *

  Update (1350ET): As we previewed earlier, Washington State Gov. Jay Inslee has announced plans to ban gatherings with 250 people or more in the counties worst affected by the virus in his state, CNBC reports. The counties include: King, Snohomish and Pierce.

  In addition, he’s asking all school districts to prepare for online instruction, and closures that might last “longer than initially thought”.

  Just minutes after Inslee’s announcement, San Francisco health officials announced they would ban public and private events with 1,000 people or more to slow the spread of the new coronavirus there.

  “We know that this order is disruptive, but it is an important step to support public health,” San Francisco Mayor London Breed said in a statement. “We know cancelling these events is a challenge for everyone and we’ve been talking with venues and event organizers about the need to protect public health.” She said she spoke with the Warriors NBA team and “they are in support of our efforts.”

  Washington State is the hardest-hit in the country, with more than 267 confirmed cases across the state with 258 of those concentrated between the three counties, according to the state health commission.

  Even more alarming: Seattle-area officials announced late Tuesday that residents or employees of 10 long-term care facilities have been infected.

  Last month, Inslee declared a state of emergency to free up funding for communities combating the outbreak.

  *  *  *

  Update (1330ET): Politico reports that President Trump is looking into making an Oval Office address, presumably to share the details from his stimulus “plan”.

  *TRUMP LOOKING AT OVAL OFFICE ADDRESS: POLITICO

  — Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) March 11, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Meanwhile, USAToday has published the details from a proposal delivered to the White House about how they can update health and safety measures to stop employees from getting infected. Stocks dropped on news of the details from the plan, which hadn’t been previously disclosed since the industry delivered the proposal to the White House after a meeting yesterday.

  • CRUISE LINE INDUSTRY PROPOSES PLAN TO WHITE HOUSE THAT WOULD BAR PEOPLE AGE 70 AND OLDER FROM BOARDING SHIPS WITHOUT A DOCTOR’S NOTE

  The proposal reportedly includes barring entry to anyone over the age of 70, or with an underlying condition, unless a doctor’s note is supplied.

  *  *  *

  Update (1315ET): One day after recording its largest increase in deaths on record, Italy has reported yet another 30%+ increase in deaths, bringing its death toll to 827 from 631. They also reported a record-breaking 2,000+ new cases on Wednesday.

  • ITALY DEATH TOLL FROM CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK RISES TO 827 FROM 631 ON TUESDAY – OFFICIAL
  • ITALY CORONAVIRUS DEATHS JUMP 31% TO 827
  • TOTAL NUMBER OF CONFIRMED CASES OF CORONAVIRUS IN ITALY RISES TO 12,462 FROM 10,149 ON TUESDAY – OFFICIAL

  Though the jump in deaths reported yesterday (168) was larger in terms of percentage (36% vs. 31%), today’s increase is larger by the numbers.

  Coronavirus update, Italy:

  – 2,313 new cases today
  – 12,462 cases in total
  – 5,838 hospitalized
  – 1,045 recovered
  – 827 deaths
  – 1,028 in intensive care

  — Norbert Elekes (@NorbertElekes) March 11, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  In other news, Norway bans indoor events with more than 500 people. Russia earlier said it would ban most flights between Russia and Italy, Germany, Spain and France. Meanwhile, Washington State has confirmed plans to ban large events.

  *  *  *

  Update (1350ET): Follow the WHO’s major admission just a few minutes ago, which took the air out of a modest market rally as stocks moved off their session lows, we suspect that Wednesday will be remembered as a critical day in the development of the outbreak outside Asia.

  We’ve heard no shortage of alarming predictions today – remember earlier when Merkel said up to 70% of Germans might catch the virus, or Dr. Fauci’s warning that “millions” of Americans could contract it if the US doesn’t act quickly – and Axios has just brought us one more: It reports, citing two sources briefing on the meeting, that Congress’ in-house doctor told Capitol Hill staffers at a close-door meeting this week that he expects 75-150 million people in the US,  roughly one-third of the country, to contract the coronavirus.

  And here’s Axios telling us “why it matters”:

  Why it matters: That estimate, which is in line with other projections from health experts, underscores the potential seriousness of this outbreak even as the White House has been downplaying its severity in an attempt to keep public panic at bay.

  Dr. Brian Monahan, the attending physician of the U.S. Congress, told Senate chiefs of staff, staff directors, administrative managers and chief clerks from both parties on Tuesday that they should prepare for the worst, and offered advice on how to remain healthy.

  He added that 80% of people who contract the virus will ultimately be fine.

  As Axios also reminds us, statistical modeling from Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch, have said that somewhere between 20% and 60% of adults worldwide might catch the virus.

  During an interview with CNBC following the declaration from the WHO,

  “The epidemic is always further ahead than what you perceive at the moment,” Dr. Scott Gottlieb said.

  It’s possible that we have thousands of cases here possibly tens of thousands,” Dr. Gottlieb said.

  In other news, Reuters reports that the White House is weighing travel bans against Italians and other Europeans.

  *  *  *

  Update (1230ET): With WHO’s major funding partner China perhaps having turned the corner, WHO Chief Tedros has finally decided to declare Covid-19 a Pandemic…

  🚨 BREAKING 🚨

  “We have therefore made the assessment that #COVID19 can be characterized as a pandemic”-@DrTedros #coronavirus pic.twitter.com/JqdsM2051A

  — World Health Organization (WHO) (@WHO) March 11, 2020

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  Full Tedros Transcript:

  In the past two weeks, the number of cases of #COVID19 outside 🇨🇳 has increased 13-fold & the number of affected countries has tripled.

  There are now more than 118,000 cases in 114 countries, & 4,291 people have lost their lives.

  Thousands more are fighting for their lives in hospitals.

  In the days and weeks ahead, we expect to see the number of #COVID19 cases, the number of deaths, and the number of affected countries climb even higher

  WHO has been assessing this outbreak around the clock and we are deeply concerned both by the alarming levels of spread and severity, and by the alarming levels of inaction

  We have therefore made the assessment that #COVID19 can be characterized as a pandemic

  Pandemic is not a word to use lightly or carelessly. It is a word that, if misused, can cause unreasonable fear, or unjustified acceptance that the fight is over, leading to unnecessary suffering and death

  Describing the situation as a pandemic does not change WHO’s assessment of the threat posed by this coronavirus. It doesn’t change what WHO is doing, and it doesn’t change what countries should do”

  We have never before seen a pandemic sparked by a coronavirus. And we have never before seen a pandemic that can be controlled at the same time.

  WHO has been in full response mode since we were notified of the first cases.

  We have called every day for countries to take urgent and aggressive action.

  We have rung the alarm bell loud and clear

  As I said on Monday, just looking at the number of COVID19 cases and the number of countries affected does not tell the full story

  Of the 118,000 COVID19 cases reported globally in 114 countries, more than 90 percent of cases are in just four countries, and two of those have significantly declining epidemics

  81 countries have not reported any COVID19 cases, and 57 countries have reported 10 cases or less.

   

  We cannot say this loudly enough, or clearly enough, or often enough: all countries can still change the course of this pandemic”

  If countries detect, test, treat, isolate, trace, and mobilize their people in the response, those with a handful of COVID19 cases can prevent those cases becoming clusters, and those clusters becoming community transmission

  Even those countries with community transmission or large clusters can turn the tide on this coronavirus.

  Several countries have demonstrated that this virus can be suppressed and controlled.

  The challenge for many countries who are now dealing with large COVID19 clusters or community transmission is not whether they can do the same – it’s whether they will.

  Some countries are struggling with a lack of capacity. Some countries are struggling with a lack of resources. Some countries are struggling with a lack of resolve.

  We are grateful for the measures being taken in Iran, Italy and South Korea to slow the virus and control their COVID19 epidemics.

  We know that these measures are taking a heavy toll on societies and economies, just as they did in China.

  All countries must strike a fine balance between protecting health, minimizing economic & social disruption & respecting human rights

  WHO’s mandate is public health. But we’re working with many partners across all sectors to mitigate the social and economic consequences of this COVID19 pandemic

  This is not just a public health crisis, it is a crisis that will touch every sector – so every sector and every individual must be involved in the fight

  I have said from the beginning that countries must take a whole-of-government, whole-of-society approach, built around a comprehensive strategy to prevent infections, save lives and minimize impact

  Let me summarize it in 4 key areas.

  1. Prepare and be ready.

  2. Detect, protect and treat.

  3. Reduce transmission.

  4. Innovate and learn”

  I remind all countries that we are calling on you to (1):

  • activate & scale up your emergency response mechanisms

  • communicate with your people about the risks & how they can protect themselves

  • find, isolate, test & treat every #COVID19 case & trace every contact”

  I remind all countries that we are calling on you to (2):

  • ready your hospitals

  • protect and train your #healthworkers

  • let’s all look out for each other”

  There’s been so much attention on one word.

  Let me give you some other words that matter much more, & that are much more actionable:

  Prevention. Preparedness. Public health. Political leadership.

  And most of all, People”

  “We’re in this together, to do the right things with calm and protect the citizens of the world. It’s doable”

  And just like that – $425 million dollars worth of pandemic bonds all got trggered.

  *  *  *

  Update (1220ET): Three Boeing workers have tested positive for the virus, the company said. Though Boeing offered few details, we suspect the employees are probably based in Washington State, where Boeing builds its planes.

  In Washington DC, authorities are recommending the cancellation or postponement of all “non-essential” gatherings over 1,000.

  As students leave campuses around the country either heading back home or hunkering down finish their classes on line, Harvard just announced that it would “pro-rate” students’ room and board.

  *  *  *

  Update (1220ET): With the committee in charge of the Tokyo Olympic Games reportedly planning to suggest that the games be delayed, more images of the coronavirus fears’ impact on international travel are circulating online. Check out this.

  Airline passengers shared images on social media showing flights with rows of empty seats amid coronavirus concerns. https://t.co/48iJCgnlxM pic.twitter.com/0FS1zq6OgX

  — ABC News (@ABC) March 11, 2020

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  *  *  *

  Update (1200ET): The CDC has released its latest batch of “confirmed” US figures: 29 deaths, 987 cases and cases confirmed in 39 states as of 10 pm last night.

  • U.S. CDC – 39 STATES HAVE REPORTED CASES AS OF MARCH 10 AT 4 PM ET VS PREVIOUS REPORT OF 36 STATES
  • U.S. CDC – 29 TOTAL DEATHS DUE TO NEW CORONAVIRUS AS OF MARCH 10 AT 4 PM ET VS 25 DEATHS AS OF PREVIOUS REPORT
  • U.S. CDC REPORTS ITS COUNT OF 987 CASES OF NEW CORONAVIRUS AS OF MARCH 10 AT 4 PM ET, VS PREVIOUS REPORT OF 696 CASES

  Around the world, the virus has produced many “isn’t it ironic?” moments, and we just got another in the US when FEMA announced that it would close its Atlanta office after an employee was exposed to the virus.

  • FEMA ATLANTA OFFICE CLOSED AFTER EMPLOYEE EXPOSED TO VIRUS

  Over in the UK, a total of 456 people have tested positive for coronavirus in the UK as of 9am on Wednesday, up from 373 at the same point on Tuesday, the Department of Health said. The jump of 83 new cases is the largest daily jump yet, following the previous ‘largest daily increase’ by only a few days.

  Six have died in the UK and tested positive for the virus. Over in Ireland, authorities reported their first death on Wednesday. A 66-year-old Bulgarian woman also succumbed to the virus in the Balkan state, marking the first death there as well.

  After the UK Health Minister Nadine Dorries tested positive for the virus, and started showing symptoms on Thursday, the same day she attended an event with the prime minister. Though the UK has elected to keep parliament open, Dorries and a Labour lawmaker who may have been exposed via a meeting with Dorries have decided to self-quarantine.

  UK Chief Medical Officer Catherine Calderwood stressed that “we are still in the containment phase” despite an increased number of Covid-19 cases.

  She said: “We have identified the first case of community transmission in Scotland which is unrelated to contact or travel. This was identified through our enhanced surveillance scheme.

  Sweden has reported its first death from the coronavirus today, with a hospital in Stockholm saying an elderly patient had died in intensive care. Belgium has reported its first three deaths, with 314 cases of coronavirus. Ivory Coast has confirmed its first case of coronavirus, a 45-year-old Ivorian man who had recently travelled to Italy, the health ministry said in a statement. Denmark confirmed a batch of new cases, raising its total to 442.

  While Washington State is apparently planning to ban all events with over 250 people, Washington DC has advised citizens to avoid such gatherings.

  Last night, Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont declares a state of emergency, joining a growing list of other states to do the same.

  *  *  *

  Update (1150ET): Rencap’s Charlie Robertson points out that it took 5 days since the first indication of human-to-human transmission happening at a wide scale in the US, and if our numbers track Germany’s, we should have 3,000 cases confirmed by Friday, and 6,000 by Monday.

  Though that rate could double if many new clusters are discovered.

  It took 5 days for the number of US #coronavirus cases to get to 1k, within the predicted range. US tracking Germany with 6 day lag implies 2K cases tomorrow, 3k by Friday, nearly 6k by Monday. Could be double this if clusters are found like Korea did in late February https://t.co/LpX2uoBhrr

  — Charlie Robertson (@RencapMan) March 11, 2020

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  *  *  *

  Update (1100ET): With another day of non-stop breaking news headlines about the outbreak as it spreads across the US, Europe and Latin America, we’ve been having troubled keeping up.

  Switzerland reported 148 new cases of coronavirus on Wednesday, with 645 cases in total, 58 cases in Zürich and 78 cases in Geneva.

  Indonesia, an Asian nation that didn’t report its first case until more than a month after the global outbreak began reported its first death linked to the virus on Wednesday as well.

  National Guard troops have been deployed to a Health Department command post in New Rochelle. Chicago has followed San Francisco and cancelled its St. Patrick’s Day Parade. In NYC, schools will not close, but parent-teacher conferences will be held via phone.

  An employee at a ‘Waffle House’ in Metro Atlanta (Cherokee County) has tested positive for the virus, raising fears about a mass outbreak in Georgia. The store has been closed and 12 employees are quarantining and will continue for a few more days.

  Oh well, I guess it’s back to the Chinese restaurants! https://t.co/kzovj0lC2a

  — Mark B. Spiegel (@markbspiegel) March 11, 2020

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  The Inter-American Development Bank postponed its annual meeting in Colombia, which had been scheduled for next week, over coronavirus fears as the virus spreads across Latin America. The Washington-based bank, the top development institution dedicated to Latin America and the Caribbean, announced the decision with Colombian President Ivan Duque on Tuesday evening.

  La decisión conjunta con @el_BID, de aplazar Asamblea de Barranquilla por situación mundial del coronavirus la tomamos con responsabilidad. Queremos tener alta representación internacional y garantizar que asistentes puedan regresar a sus hogares sin problema #VisitaOficialMéxico pic.twitter.com/sJsV00zDiv

  — Iván Duque (@IvanDuque) March 10, 2020

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  With transports and financials leading equities lower on Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, who testified to Congress on Wednesday tried to offer some reassuring details about the White House plan, which remains very much in the ‘brainstorm’ phase. Still, Mnuchin insisted that Trump is standing by the payroll tax holiday to put more money in the hands of workers. The Treasury is also hoping to delay tax payments and leave $200 billion of “temporary liquidity” in the hands of Americans.

  Mnuchin said the White House hopes to strike a deal on the first part of the virus stimulus plan within the next 48 hours. His testimony follows rumors about the administration offering a potential ‘bailout’ to the American shale energy industry. Other stimulus actions will take “a week or two” he added.

  Importantly, the Treasury Secretary also insisted that no market interventions are being planned (so no PPT?). 

  In remarks on Tuesday, CDC Director Robert Redfield said that America had lost valuable time tracking the virus; some regions now can merely try to cope with its spread rather than stop it. And during testimony on Wednesday, Dr. Fauci said that when it comes to the outbreak in the US, “the worst is yet to come” because the virus is “10x more lethal than the seasonal flu”.

  If the US doesn’t handle the virus outbreak correctly, “many, many millions of people” will get the virus, he said.

  Rep. Carolyn Maloney on coronavirus spreading: “Is the worst yet to come, Dr. Fauci?”

  “Yes, it is,” Dr. Fauci says, adding that whenever you have an outbreak where there’s “community spread,” you won’t be able to “effectively and efficiently contain it.” https://t.co/wVchsY7g1y pic.twitter.com/dhSS6joXrW

  — ABC News Politics (@ABCPolitics) March 11, 2020

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  Remember to wash your hands, folks.

  *  *  *

  The global coronavirus outbreak has hit a new milestone: It surpassed 120,000 cases overnight. For anybody who’s still bothering to keep track, that’s 15x the number of cases from the SARS outbreak, which continued for nearly a year before it finally petered out.

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  In the US, the coronavirus outbreak has reached a grim new milestone. Thanks to the administration’s scramble to bring dozens of private and public labs on-line for testing across the country, the CDC has managed to confirm more than 1,000 cases of the virus. In the Westchester County town of New Rochelle, the epicenter of the outbreak in New York State, and the largest on the east coast, woke up to a 1-mile exclusion zone and national guard soldiers in the streets.

  The town now looks like a “ghost town” according to several reports.

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  As the number of cases topped 1,000, the number of deaths has also climbed: Officially, there are 31 deaths and 1,039 confirmed cases, according to the Washington Post, which is significantly more than the number confirmed by Dr. Anthony Fauci during last night’s press conference.

  Across the US, Washington State’s King County remains the epicenter of America’s worst outbreak, with 273 cases . New York is No. 2 with 176 (13 additional cases have just been announced). After hinting about ‘mandatory measures’ last night that set tongues wagging about the possibility of Italy-style travel restrictions, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee is reportedly planning to announce a plan to…ban all events with more than 250 people, according to MyNorthwest.

  At a press conference scheduled for Wednesday at 10:15 a.m., it is expected that Gov. Jay Inslee along with regional leaders and city mayors could announce a ban on large gatherings and events of 250 people or more in at least three counties. Any ban would affect upcoming sporting events in the area, including a home game for the XFL’s Seattle Dragons on Sunday.

  Inslee has been hinting at this for the past week as a possible preemptive move to curb the spread of coronavirus. Over the weekend, he stated that his office was considering enacting “mandatory measures” in the days ahead.

  Monday night on MSBNC, the Washington governor spoke to Rachel Maddow, admitting that soon, the state was “going to have to make some hard decisions.”

  He further elaborated on that point during a Tuesday press conference, when he cited the need to “look forward ahead of the curve in Washington state.”

  “We need to look at what is coming, not just what is here today,” he detailed, estimating that given limits on testing capacity, experts have told him there could be at least 1,000 untested coronavirus cases across the state.

  So much for ‘hard decisions’….

  This immense build up, only to announce restrictions that are only ‘slightly’ more comprehensive than the milquetoast event bans embraced by Germany, France, Switzerland and others, brings to mind a tweet we noticed earlier highlighting the sometimes unintended consequences that half-measures can create.

  When 90% of Americans get the coronavirus, we’ll look back & say, “Man, that was pretty dumb making all college classes ‘remote’ while airfare and hotels are super cheap. Who would’ve thought 20 yr olds don’t give a fuck and just ended up traveling everywhere spreading disease.”

  — Fat Tail Capital (@FatTailCapital) March 11, 2020

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  On the east coast, the State of New York is asking businesses to voluntarily consider having employees work two shifts as well as allowing telework, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said in an interview with CNN, the network that employs his brother, where he has been making near-daily appearances in addition to his daily press conferences.

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  Gov. Inslee

  “This is about reducing the density,” Cuomo said. “The spread is not going to stop on its own.”

  He also announced 20 new cases of virus, bringing total in state to about 193, with most of the new cases diagnosed in New Rochelle, where the virus has clearly been circulating for weeks.

  There have been reports that Democrats are pushing for a national emergency declaration which would trigger  tens of billions of dollars in funding from FEMA to help with the containment effort, and possibly to help grappled with the economic fallout from the outbreak.

  Despite a few notable screwups lately (including a collapsed ad hoc quarantine that left roughly one dozen dead and many trapped in the rubble for days, Beijing continues to insist that it is winning the war against the virus, and while the true scope of China’s outbreak might never be known for sure (some have estimated 1 million cases throughout China), officials did report a slight rise in cases on Wednesday which they blamed on ‘imports from abroad.’

  Officials reported 24 additional cases of coronavirus and 22 additional deaths on March 10, compared with 19 additional cases and 17 additional deaths on March 9, bringing the total number of cases in mainland China to 80,778 and death toll at 3,158. China’s Hubei province said it will mandate a return to work according to different levels of risk in an orderly manner, adding that key areas of the Wuhan economy will be allowed to return.

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  After 11 days of falling case numbers, South Korea reported 242 additional coronavirus cases early Wednesday, bringing its total to 7,555, and 6 additional deaths, increasing the death toll to 60, reversing a streak of declines that had convinced many that Korea’s outbreak had ended.

  The South has made remarkable progress in fighting the outbreak, however, a new mass infection incident has popped up that is jeopardizing the government’s widely praised response. Earlier, South Korean authorities told Reuters that they had tested hundreds of staff at a Seoul call center where the disease broke out this week. 13 of the infected workers at the Seoul call center used public transportation to commute, leading to at least 90 other people who had close contact with them being infected. Of the 90 cases mentioned earlier, 62 were in Seoul, and all were located near a public transportation hub connecting Seoul with Incheon and other major cities, via which the virus spread.

  The spread has even made it into the armed forces, raising new fears about an outbreak in tightly packed barracks.

  Yonhap: A conscript South Korean Army soldier has been confirmed as a coronavirus patient in Seoul. His mother works at a call center in the city where a mass infection event has been confirmed. https://t.co/DvSP8RvoBS

  — Vincent Lee (@Rover829) March 11, 2020

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  Elsewhere, Japan is reportedly planning to declare a state of emergency due to the coronavirus outbreak after the number of domestic cases rose by the largest daily number yet, with 59 new cases bringing the total to 1,278, while the total death toll has climbed to 19 and there were 427 discharged from hospital on Tuesday.

  Italy’s total coronavirus cases rose to 10,149, from 9172, and the death toll increased to 631 yesterday from 463 in its largest daily jump yet.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 03/11/2020 – 22:10

• Nasdaq Futures Limit-Down, Crude Crashes After Trump Announces EU Travel Ban
  Nasdaq Futures Limit-Down, Crude Crashes After Trump Announces EU Travel Ban

  Shortly after President Trump began his address to the nation, enacting a full travel ban from European nations for the next 30 days, the markets started to get upset.

  • S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow futures fall 4-4.5%

  • Both Brent and WTI futures down more than 6%

  • Nikkei 225 drops 4.5%, Australia’s benchmark slumped 5% to confirm bear market status

  • Main China stock indexes all fall at least 1%

  • Kospi, Hang Seng, Taiex slide 3% or more

  • Treasury 10-year yields decline 14 bps to 0.73%

  • AUD/USD falls 0.3%, EUR/USD jumps 0.4%

  • Malaysia, Korea, Philippine currencies all retreat 0.5%; Mexican peso tumbles more than 1%

  Dow futures are down over 1000 points…

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  Japan’s Nikkei 225 is down over 350 points…

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  Nasdaq futures are limit down…

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  S&P is close to its 2,601 limit down…

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  And for the cash open tomorrow:

  • 7% limit down (RTH only) : 2546.50

  • 13% limit down (RTH only) : 2382.00

  • 20% limit down (RTH only) : 2190.00

  10Y Treasury yields are down 15bps…

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  The Euro is strengthening against the dollar…

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  WTI Crude is collapsing, hitting a $30 handle

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  European Stoxx 50 futures are down 7.3%

  It appears Trump did not offer enough detail and immediacy to appease the market’s need for funds to stop the collapse. Additionally, the uncertainty over the impact on European supply chains is also weighing on markets.

  The market is now demanding 90bps of rate-cuts for next week’s FOMC…

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  Chris Martenson and John Rubino explain why the virus is the catalyst not the cause of the crash…

  For years, Peak Prosperity has been raising a loud warning of the ‘Everything Bubble’ that the world’s central banks have blown in global asset prices.

  Over that time, we’ve debated with hundreds of economic experts on what will be the trigger to “pop” this mania.

  Well, now we’re finding out.

  The economic damage being wrought worldwide by the coronavirus is the black swan the system never saw coming. Trade is being strangled, and the necessary productivity needed to support that massive increase in global debt that has been taken on over the past decade is just not there.

  Bankruptcies are set to ripple across industries like wildfire. Mass layoffs will return with a vengeance. For certain industries — like travel, hospitality, and the shale oil drillers — this will be an extinction-level event for many players.

  As ugly as the swift -20% drop in markets from from February’s highs has been, this is just the start of the reckoning, folks.

  Additionally, As El-Erian notes, the NBA suspension is really bring the fear home…

  News like this, as well as form @tomhanks (wishing him will) will fuel uncertainty, prompting people to disengage more from economic activities.
  My main worry is materializing:
  The ECONOMICS OF FEAR will turbocharge the supply/demand destruction due to #CoronaVirus SUDDEN STOPS. pic.twitter.com/0JJA0SB6uZ

  — Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) March 12, 2020

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  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 03/11/2020 – 22:08

• Stock Buybacks Crash Just As Markets Need Them Most
  Stock Buybacks Crash Just As Markets Need Them Most

  At the start of January, when the market euphoria was at an all time high, the blow off top meltup was raging and an army of millennial Robinhood daytraders was about to be unleashed (only to be crucified at the end of February), we first warned our readers that “Institutions, Retail And Algos Are Now All-In, Just As Buybacks Tumble.” In the markets, nobody noticed and the warning fell on deaf ears as the relentless melt up, which we called for what it was, namely a clear “distribution” from smart to dumb money – continued. 

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  Exactly two months and one bear market later, the first in 11 years, they finally noticed, with Bloomberg today writing that US companies, which until now were quite happy to sell some BBB-rated bonds and use the proceeds to buy stocks to prop up their stock price, have stepped back from repurchasing their shares even before the coronavirus outbreak (something we made quite clear in January).

  Using a calculation by the permabulls over at Birinyi, Bloomberg reports that companies have announced $122 billion of share repurchases in January and February, which as we warned was the lowest in years and down 46% from a year ago for the biggest drop to start a year since 2009.

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  The numbers above fail to capture the crash in markets the followed the acute phase of Coronavirus pandemic, as well as the most recent oil plunge that has caused a plunge in oil prices and hammered all junk-bond funded companies. As such, Bloomberg’s reporters correctly point out that the “reduction underlines a concern that will get bigger should the virus inaugurate an age of prudence among corporate treasurers. Luxuries such as share repurchases, while showing signs of picking up amid the rout, are easy to cut when cash preservation and creditworthiness become the priorities.“

  Which is not to say that companies do not buyback their stock when markets tumble: indeed during prior corrections, repurchases may have prevented equity losses from snowballing. For example, in the middle of the sell-off in May 2019, repurchases by BofA’s corporate clients surged 23% for the eighth-busiest week in a decade. The market bottomed on the first day of June. During the route in February 2018, the rebound in stocks came in a week when Goldman Sachs’s corporate-trading desk saw the most buyback orders ever.

  This time however, with a global recession over the corner, it may be different. Indeed, with companies now rushing to draw down on revolvers in a liquidity procurement panic, the last thing they will be spending money on ahead of the recession is buybacks. In fact, one can argue that the main reason why we are now in a bear market and on the verge of a recession is because of companies such as Boeing, which until recently spent billions on buybacks; companies which are now drawing down on their revolvers.

  “If they’re forced to use that for other areas of the business, you’ll lose some of that key support in the market,” said Mike Stritch, chief investment officer for BMO Wealth Management. “That’s a key underpinning for the stock market, and you do worry you’re going to see some companies folding up on this.”

  That the disappearance of buybacks is a problem is an understatement: as we reported recently for the past decade, the only source of buying have been companies themselves, repurchasing their stock.

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  Ironically, while companies should have stopped repurchasing their stock a long time ago, buyback appetite remained strong in recent weeks, and in the final week of February, when the S&P 500 tumbled the most since 2008, Goldman’s corporate clients snapped up their own shares at the fastest rate in two years, with volume running at 2.3 times the average in 2019. Unfortunately, it now appears they used up much of their dry powder just as stocks were about to take another leg lower. 

  In a perfect world, companies should maximize their buybacks at the lows and halt them at the highs, yet in the real world the opposite happens, even if there are plenty of experts who will tell you what “should” happen, experts such as Don Townswick, director of equity strategies at Conning, who told Bloomberg that “when your stock price is undervalued, buybacks become more attractive. At these levels in the marketplace, smart management is looking at this and thinking, ‘This is the time to actually realize those buybacks. We’re buying our stock 15% below where we thought it was.’”

  Ah yes, but what Don is forgetting is that the bulk of buybacks in recent years was debt-funded, and unfortunately right now credit markets are slammed shut which means that companies have to rely on their own cashflow generation and cash balances to fund management’s favorite stock option boosting activity. There is just one problem: as we first reported last year, corporate America’s cash is draining at the fastest rate in decades, with balances at S&P 500 companies excluding financial firms plunging 15% in the past 12 months.

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  What’s worse is that the market now appears to be frontrunning the inability of companies to prop up their own stock prices, and is punishing those companies that have relied the most on buybacks. As Bloomberg notes, while the whole market is down more than 11% this year through yesterday, the S&P 500 Buyback Index that tracks stocks with the highest payout ratio has fared far worse, falling 19% this year.

  Almost as if traders know that the golden goose, that propped up the market on so many occasions in the past, is now dead.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 03/11/2020 – 22:05

• End Of Growth: Does Covid-19 Herald An Era Of Decline?
  End Of Growth: Does Covid-19 Herald An Era Of Decline?

  Authored by Chris Hamilton via Econimica blog,

  I’m going to suggest that the Coronavirus is more a window or a marker that separates what will be seen as the end of an era and the beginning of another.  Corona-virus is serious, global, and appears it will cause significant death and disruption. 

  But Coronavirus itself isn’t the problem (no more than Spanish Flu was in 1918/1919).  There is likely to be 9 to 18 months of global pandemic with large scale loss of life, but after the pandemic, things are more likely to return to “normal”.  And it’s the discussion of what is the “normal” we have seen over the past 7 decades versus the current and coming decades that I hope to spur.

  To begin, the chart below shows the annual change in the under 60 year old US population (green line) versus annual change in 60+ year old US population (yellow line).  Also shown is annual US federal deficit split between public debt (red columns) and Intragovernmental (IG…blue columns representing Social Security, etc.), and lastly the federal funds rate (black line).  Simply, as population growth of the working age population slowed, first large scale legal and illegal immigration was utilized to maintain economic and financial growth. 

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  However, since 2008, working age population growth has rapidly decelerated and immigration slowed…and in their place have come interest rate cuts to zero and accompanying massive debt (I show federal debt below, but corporate debt has also binged of the nearly free money to buy their own stock and pay dividends).  2019 was the first year in US history the working-age population declined…and of course all net population growth now comes among the elderly.  The elderly who, on average, earn/spend half as much, are highly credit averse, and prefer to pay down existing mortgages and debt.

  Changing gears but still tangentially, the weekly change in Federal Reserve holdings of US Treasury bonds (yellow columns) and the impact of that purchasing on the Wilshire 5000 (red line representing all publicly traded US equities).  Look again at the chart above of the fast decelerating growth of potential employees, potential consumers, potential stock purchasers among the working-age.  Consider the mandatory selling of the elderly…and then…

  Consider the rationale and relationship for the Fed’s “activism”.

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  Broadening out to show the weekly change in Federal Reserve held mortgage backed securities (MBS…blue columns), Treasuries (yellow columns), and again the Wilshire 5000 (red line).

  Again, consider the Fed’s motivation and the relationship of Fed buying and asset prices sky-rocketing.

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  Next, perhaps also worthy of some discussion is the Fed’s experiment to control interest rates via interest paid on excess reserves (IOER).  Just a reminder, prior to ’08, banks collectively held literally a few billion in excess reserves but in the ’09 GFC, the Fed stuffed them with excess reserves.  The excess reserves peaked just prior to the end of QE and began precipitously declining years prior to any balance sheet reductions by the Fed.  However, during that intermediate period while the Fed was raising the Federal Funds Rate, the Fed also raised the interest paid to the largest banks on those trillions in excess reserves.  Despite the fast rising, Fed sponsored, risk-free returns for lending no money, excess reserves plummeted.  What is so fascinating is that when the Fed felt compelled to begin cutting the FFR (and the IOER’s), reducing the returns on those excess reserves…the Fed also restarted QE (or “Not-QE”) and magically bank excess reserves ceased declining and began rising!?!  An increase in excess of $400 billion in Fed held Treasuries has coincided with a nearly $250 billion increase in excess reserves?!?

  However, despite the $1.5 trillion in excess reserves, banks (and others) are oversubscribing Fed repo auctions at record levels…perhaps this is worthy of some discussion?

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  Next, consider the Fed’s holdings of US Treasuries by durations and the resultant impact on the spread of the 10 year Treasury minus the 2 year Treasury.  Prior to the GFC, the Fed conducted their policy rather banker like, in a rather boring fashion.  However, since the GFC, the Fed is spastically dumping one duration while pouring into another.

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  And a focus on the Fed’s holdings of short term US Treasury bills versus the yield on the 3 month Treasury bill.  Check out the action on the far right…and perhaps this is discussion worthy?  The Fed is currently buying every duration, but more than anything, is sucking up bills at an unprecedented rate?!? Uhhh!

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  Global

  But now widen out and put all this into a global scope.  If we look at annual global working-age population growth (black dashed line below) split among the 1st world (blue line), Asia (excluding East Asia), and Africa (red line)…the picture of what is happening in the US makes a little more sense. 

  The working-age population of the 1st world begins a secular decline as of 2020.  For those curious, the 1st world below is collectively including all of the Western Hemisphere, Europe, Oceania, Russia and Eastern Europe, plus East Asia (China, Japan, S/N Korea)).  The 1st world consumes 75% of all commodities, has over 80% of the income, and consumes even more of the global exports…this is the population that takes out over 90% of the credit.  And as for Africa and Asia (excluding East Asia), they are totally reliant on the first world growth to export their cheap labor, cheap commodities, and finished goods.  Without growth in the first world consumer base, these 2nd and 3rd world nations haven’t an oar in the water.

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  And all this was before any inclusion of a likely pandemic.  Now, disruption and dislocation is likely on top of 1st world working age depopulation.  Discuss.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 03/11/2020 – 21:45

• "Straight Up Racist": AOC Slams People For Not 'Patroning' Chinese Restaurants Due To Coronavirus
  “Straight Up Racist”: AOC Slams People For Not ‘Patroning’ Chinese Restaurants Due To Coronavirus

  Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) lashed out at ‘straight up racists’ for not ‘patroning’ Chinese restaurants.

  “Honestly, it sounds almost so silly to say, but there’s a lot of restaurants that are feeling the pain of racism, where people are literally not patroning Chinese restaurants, they’re not patroning Asian restaurants because of just straight-up racism around the coronavirus,” she said on Instagram Live on Tuesday.

  Watch:

  Ocasio-Cortez says people are not eating at Chinese and Asian restaurants right now because they are “just straight up” racist about the coronavirus pic.twitter.com/egtpRDEDhO

  — Ryan Saavedra (@RealSaavedra) March 11, 2020

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  As Fox News notes, social media users were quick to call out AOC for trivializing actual racism.

  “Honestly though, Alexandria. Can we at least try to reserve the term racism for things that are actually evil and racist?” said congressional candidate Luke Edison Negron.

  “oh there’s a pandemic”

  “go into this enclosed space with a bunch of other people and recycled air” https://t.co/oznjZcbDAg

  — collapse anime (@Crisprtek) March 11, 2020

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  How does a barmaid not know that the “patroning” isn’t a word, and that you PATRONIZE a bar or a restaurant?

  That’s @AOC.

  And she thinks you’re a racist if you’re not eating Chop Suey tonight. https://t.co/sUwyM1lzn2

  — Sebastian Gorka DrG (@SebGorka) March 11, 2020

  If everything is racist, nothing is racist?

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  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 03/11/2020 – 21:25

• Stocks Puke Into Bear Market As US Financial Conditions Crash Most 'Since Lehman'
  Stocks Puke Into Bear Market As US Financial Conditions Crash Most ‘Since Lehman’

  Today the stench of a desperate liquidity scramble as The Dollar rallied while Stocks, Bonds, Bitcoin, Crude, and Gold were all dumped.

  The Fed ramped up its liquidity bailout facility to a stunning $175 billion per day and still the market kept collapsing…

  The Dow and S&P crash into a bear market…erasing most of the Trump rally…

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  This is the fastest drawdown from a peak into bear market in history, and worst start to a year since 2009…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  US Financial Conditions are tightening massively…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  Crashing at the fastest pace since Lehman… (NOTE – the sudden drop is reminiscent of the first moments of crisis in August 2007)

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  Source: Bloomberg

  With a massive dollar shortage evident…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  Forcing The Fed to puke liquidity into the markets…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  Which is perhaps why the market is now demanding 82bps of rate-cuts next week by The Fed…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  Today was a bloodbath in US equities with Small Caps and The Dow hammered hardest…

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  Dow Futures show the week’s carnage best – just make sure to check the scale, these are simply massive swings…

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  And on the week, Small Caps are down almost 13%…

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  The Dow was the biggest underperformer because Boeing stock crashed today, but it was the CDS that is more worrying…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  Virus-related travel and leisure sectors were hammered…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  Bank stocks were clubbed like a baby seal today, now down a stunning 10-16% on the week alone!

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  Source: Bloomberg

  VIX surged back above 50 today…

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  As Bloomberg details, the historic oil-market collapse that’s dragging down shares of the biggest Western explorers is swelling yields on investor payouts. The elite cohort of large international drillers known as the supermajors – Exxon Mobil Corp., Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Chevron Corp., Total SA and BP Plc – now are churning out bloated yields that dwarf those paid by the broader S&P 500 Index.

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  Source: Bloomberg

  Credit markets are collapsing with HY spreads smashing wider…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  And IG spreads are exploding in the US…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  Treasuries were very mixed today with the short-end rallying (2Y -5bps) and long-end selling off (30Y +5bps)…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  10Y Yields pushed back above the pre-weekend plunge levels…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  The Dollar rallied today as everything as was sold – suggesting a massive scramble for liquidity…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  Rather notably, Developed Market FX is now trading with a higher vol than Emerging Market FX…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  Cryptos continued to slide lower, with Ethereum hammered today…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  Bitcoin was battered back below $8000…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  Ethereum plunged back below $200…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  Commodities were all lower today…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  WTI’s hopeful rally ended today with prices back to a $32 handle…

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  Gold was sold today too alongside bonds, bitcoin, and stocks…

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  And for a sense of just how much oil has crashed, the number of barrels that an ounce of gold can buy is exploding…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  Finally, Bloomberg notes that investors are piling into gold day-after-day as concerns escalate about the impact of the coronavirus, markets gyrate, and rate-cut expectations jump. Holdings in bullion-backed exchange-traded funds expanded 55 tons in the three days to Tuesday, with increases seen both on days when S&P 500 Indexsank, as well as posting gains. The tally stands at a fresh record, and year-to-date inflows already total more than half of the 323.4 tons added in 2019.

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  Source: Bloomberg

  This week is the worst for a stock/bond portfolio since Lehman…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  And investors have swung from “Extreme Greed” to “Extreme Fear” at the fastest pace on record…

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  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 03/11/2020 – 21:05

• Islamic Scholar Who Said Coronavirus Was "Allah's Punishment" Gets Coronavirus
  Islamic Scholar Who Said Coronavirus Was “Allah’s Punishment” Gets Coronavirus

  Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

  An Islamic scholar who said the coronavirus was “Allah’s punishment” for China’s treatment of Muslims now has coronavirus.

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  How ironic.

  Back in February, Hadi Al-Modarresi, who is based in Iran, said that the coronavirus outbreak was “undoubtedly an act of Allah that is divine punishment against the Chinese for their treatment, mockery, and disrespect towards Muslims and Islam,” reported MEMRI-TV.

  “It is obvious that the spread of this virus is an act of Allah. How do we know this? The spread of the coronavirus began in China, an ancient and vast country, the population of which makes up one seventh of humanity,” said Al-Modarresi.

  Iraqi Islamic Scholar Hadi Al-Modarresi, Prior to Being Infected with Coronavirus: The Virus Is a Divine Punishment against the Chinese pic.twitter.com/7NiQki6qBy

  — MEMRI (@MEMRIReports) March 9, 2020

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  “More than a billion people live in that country. The authorities in that country are tyrannical and they laid siege to more than a million Muslims and placed them under house arrest. The journalists in that country began to mock the niqab of Muslim women and they forced Muslim men to eat pork and drink wine. Allah sent a disease upon them and this disease laid siege to 40 million [Chinese people]. The same niqab that they mocked has been forced upon them, both men and women, by Allah, by means of the state authorities and officials,” he added.

  It is now being reported that Al-Modarresi has contracted coronavirus, meaning that Allah must obviously be punishing him for wrongdoing.

  The scholar tweeted to his almost 1 million followers with a prayer to Muhammad and the revelation that “The health of His Eminence is in a marked improvement.”

  “اللّهم صلّ على محمد وآل محمد، واكشف عنّي بهم كل كرب، ونفّس عنّي بهم كل همّ، وفرّج عنّي بهم كل غمّ واكفني بهم كلّ خوف، واصرف عني بهم مقادير البلاء، وسوء القضاء، ودرك الشقاء، وشماتة الأعداء”

  تنويه: صحة سماحة السيد في تحسّن ملحوظ ولله الحمد والمنّة. دعواتكم له ولسائر المؤمنين

  — السيد هادي المدرسي (@HadiAlModarresi) March 7, 2020

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  He also tweeted an image of himself wearing a surgical mask.

  يا عمتاه وهذا الشوق في كبدي
  ما حيلتي ليت شباك الهوى بيدي

  في كل يوم لنا شوقٌ نكابده
  ما دام في القلب نبضٌ فالوصال ندي

  فأنتم الماء للأحياء قاطبةً
  يا سادتي أولياء الله يا مددي pic.twitter.com/pqGSUPcdnD

  — السيد هادي المدرسي (@HadiAlModarresi) March 10, 2020

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  Twitter users reacted with little in the way of sympathy.

  “Allah 0 – coronavirus 1,” remarked one.

  “He shows a great capacity for convoluted reasoning. Of course it is all based on 7th century logic,” added another.

  *  *  *

  My voice is being silenced by free speech-hating Silicon Valley behemoths who want me disappeared forever. It is CRUCIAL that you support me. Please sign up for the free newsletter here. Donate to me on SubscribeStar here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 03/11/2020 – 21:05

• Watch Live: President Trump Addresses The Nation About Covid-19 Crisis Plans
  Watch Live: President Trump Addresses The Nation About Covid-19 Crisis Plans

  Having ‘ummed’ and ‘ahhed’ for a few days, it appears the crash of the stock market has President Trump taking this virus seriously. Having failed to deliver any specifics this week on his “very substantial relief” package, Trump tweeted that he will deliver a statement on Wednesday night regarding the coronavirus as the administration mulls how to address the fast-growing health crisis.

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  The president told reporters during a meeting with banking executives that the statement would involve both health and economic measures being taken to combat the virus, though he would not specify what they would be.

  Trump tweeted several times Tuesday afternoon about the coronavirus, saying he is “fully prepared to use the full power of the Federal Government to deal with” the disease.

  I am fully prepared to use the full power of the Federal Government to deal with our current challenge of the CoronaVirus!

  — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 11, 2020

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  He later tweeted “The Media should view this as a time of unity and strength. We have a common enemy, actually, an enemy of the World, the CoronaVirus. We must beat it as quickly and safely as possible. There is nothing more important to me than the life & safety of the United States!”

  The Media should view this as a time of unity and strength. We have a common enemy, actually, an enemy of the World, the CoronaVirus. We must beat it as quickly and safely as possible. There is nothing more important to me than the life & safety of the United States!

  — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 11, 2020

  As The Hill reports,  White House aides have been negotiating with lawmakers on legislation to address the economic fallout of the spreading virus, which has rattled markets and sparked concerns among workers who may not have paid sick leave or the ability to work remotely.

  The administration is also said to be considering a national emergency declaration to free up additional resources to fight the coronavirus, which the World Health Organization (WHO) on Tuesday declared a global pandemic. Additional travel restrictions are also said to be on the table.

  Watch Live (his address is due to begin at 2100ET):

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 03/11/2020 – 20:45

• Traders React To The Death Of The Longest Bull Market In History
  Traders React To The Death Of The Longest Bull Market In History

  After a record 11-year, 357% surge off the March 6th, 2009 lows, The Dow Jones Industrial Average’s longest bull-run in history came to an end today (two days after its 11th birthday) with its first 20% – bear market – drop.

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  In fact, the 19-day collapse is the fastest peak-to-bear-market crash in the history of the stock market.

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  Asset-gatherers, commission-rakers, strategists, analysts, talking heads, and freshly minted gurus (well it always goes up right?) are out en masse to lament the death of the bull (and of course to look for the next dip-buying opportunity): (via Bloomberg)

  Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial Inc., where she started working in 2009. Prior to that, she was with Hartford Financial Services Group Inc.:

  “Did I see it coming this far? No. Throughout the past 11 years, the market has had a lot of dips, and always the Federal Reserve came to the rescue. There were 5% dips, there were 10% drops, and then there were periods where the dips were bigger. Right now, the Fed is not enough, central bank action is not enough. There is a pyramid of uncertainty right now. It’s a man-versus-virus story, but that’s not the only concern.”

  Ian Winer is currently an advisory board member at Bellator Asset Management. He ran a long/short portfolio at Galleon Group when the financial crisis hit. In the meantime, he’s worked at Nomura and Wedbush.:

  “When Lehman Brothers came under, the next day we came in, we didn’t have any portfolio, it has just vanished. I didn’t believe we’d bounce back the way we did, at all. I completely under-appreciated the liquidity that the central bank has been pouring into the market and how powerful of a force that would be. I was still scarred — and even to these days, there’s an element of me that still has a hard time believing in this bull market, having seen the devastation the financial crisis has caused. It’s still hard not to have it at the back of people’s minds, even after all this time in the rally. There’s a level of skepticism that entered into people’s minds — people of my age, Gen X, who never quite recovered. A rally since 2009 speaks volumes about what the Central bank’s liquidity injection was able to accomplish. The actual prices in the stock market, the real estate market and other speculative markets have been propped up, which has created an asset bubble that will eventually burst.”

  Jeff Mills is chief investment officer of Bryn Mawr Trust. Over the past decade, he spent time at PNC Financial Services and joined Bryn Mawr in 2019:

  “In terms of mood and sentiment, it’s textbook. In markets, stability breeds instability. As we got a Phase 1 trade deal, as Brexit was resolved, as the Fed promised to keep rates low, all risks seemed to melt away. Stability in markets causes the perfectly rational behavior of investors taking more risk. That additional risk taking sows the seeds of instability. Just as people are most optimistic, just as the market seems least likely to fall, it does. So the swing from very optimistic to fear, in my opinion, is not unusual. What is a bit unusual is the catalyst and the speed of the move lower. I think that has exacerbated the mood swing.”

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  Marvin Loh is a senior global macro strategist for State Street. In 2008, he was at Oppenheimer covering finance companies:

  “If you were in growth, in the Faang names, it has been tremendous. The amount of wealth that was created just by being in the market was tremendous. If you were lucky enough to have been in the growth sectors or, even better, in the tech names that drove it, it’s just been unprecedented. One thing I found interesting is just how much more — the fact that growth out-performed value by so much for such a long period of time and it wasn’t shared to the same degree globally. U.S. markets outperformed the rest of the world. That shows how unique it was from that perspective and why it was able to power on for so long.”

  Doug Ramsey is chief investment officer at Leuthold Group. He’s lived through the 1987 crash and the tech bust. He joined Leuthold in 2005:

  “It was the most hated bull market — people said that early on. I think in the middle of the decade people go on board. Certainly in the last year they became believers,” he said. “I’d also call the whole decade the steroids era because of all the help out of the Federal Reserve. I think it certainly did get a lot of help from the Federal Reserve. This was the steroids era of the stock market — the Fed propped it up.”

  Linda Zhang is the chief executive officer at Purview Investments. When the bull market started in March 2009, Zhang worked as a portfolio manager for global multi-asset mutual funds at MFS Investment Management. Zhang worked at BlackRock when the financial crisis hit:

  “This bull market will go down in history as the one that nobody believed would last this long. A lot of people have been hurt because their retirement money disappeared. Most of us had no idea in 2005 and 2006 what type of pain the financial markets are about to go through. What destroyed us in 2008 was over-leverage. What brought to where we are in 2020 is too much hope, sky-high valuations.”

  Rich Weiss, chief investment officer of multi-asset strategies at American Century Investments in Mountain View, California:

  “This bull market is very atypical in terms of duration. If you look at the last couple of years, growth hasn’t been stellar: anywhere around the world. Real economic growth is hovering around 2%, which is respectable, but certainly not bull market growth. This particularly bull market, low interest rates are arguably the primary driver.”

  Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities LLC:

  “So many of the rules that were put in place were supposed to help small companies, and yet it’s the big ones that have benefited, on the banking side in particular. That’s made it more certain that policy makers need to make sure banks do well, and central banks will react more aggressively because of it.”

  Dean Curnutt, chief executive officer of Macro Risk Advisors:

  “We got here because of unusual, potentially unprecedented circumstances and because a strongly held consensus baked into market prices has been shattered,” he said. “Volatility that has remained so low for so long undeniably dictated positioning and forced investors to contemplate whether markets had experienced permanent, structural change. The sharpness of this adjustment, then, is the result of the collision of crowded trades implemented during exceptionally quiet times with a bona-fide turning point in the business cycle.”

  However, we give the last word to former Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher who prophetically mused last week:

  “Does The Fed really want to have a put every time the market gets nervous? …Coming off all-time highs, does it make sense for The Fed to bail the markets out every single time… creating a trap?”

  “The Fed has created this dependency and there’s an entire generation of money-managers who weren’t around in ’74, ’87, the end of the ’90s, and even 2007-2009.. and have only seen a one-way street… of course they’re nervous.“

  “The question is – do you want to feed that hunger? Keep applying that opioid of cheap and abundant money?“

  the market is dependent on Fed largesse… and we made it that way…

  …but we have to consider, through a statement rather than an action, that we must wean the market off its dependency on a Fed put.”

  Perhaps, just perhaps, the market carnage is all happening for ‘your’ own good.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 03/11/2020 – 20:25

• CME To Close Chicago Trading Floor On Friday The 13th
  CME To Close Chicago Trading Floor On Friday The 13th

  Slowly but surely, the paralysis that has gripped virtually every corner of the global economy is spreading toward the beating heart of the world’s capital markets, and according to a notice posted late on Wednesday by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, starting Friday the 13th the world’s biggest derivatives marketplace will become a ghost town – well, more so even than usual, since the CME already replaced most humans with algos and computers – as it closes its Chicago trading floor indefinitely “as a precaution to reduce large gatherings that can contribute to the spread of coronavirus in line with the advice of medical professionals.”

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  The CME notice is below:

  CME Group today announced it will close its Chicago trading floor as of the close of business Friday, March 13, 2020, as a precaution to reduce large gatherings that can contribute to the spread of coronavirus in line with the advice of medical professionals. All products will continue to trade on CME Globex as they do today.

  No coronavirus cases have been reported on the trading floor or in the Chicago Board of Trade building. The reopening of the trading floor will be evaluated as more medical guidance on the coronavirus becomes available.  The company’s headquarters at 20 S. Wacker Drive will remain open.

  The trading floor community will receive an additional q&a tomorrow related to the execution of certain floor products, procedures and protocols and other floor-related practices.

  Expect all other cash, future and derivatives exchanges to follow in the CME’s footsteps, as the world’s professional traders no longer welcome in their place of business, scramble for office space in their parents’ basement.

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  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 03/11/2020 – 20:05

• "We've Moved Beyond The Disaster Stage & Are Approaching Catastrophe…"
  “We’ve Moved Beyond The Disaster Stage & Are Approaching Catastrophe…”

  Authored by Anthony Mueller via The Mises Institute,

  [In the second part of this interview, Brazilian journalist André de Godoy speaks with Antony Mueller about the relationship between credit and money, the inflationary process, and its relation to the real economy. How will the current debt binge end? What comes after Quantitative Easing?]

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  André de Godoy: Ludwig von Mises mentions in his books that credit expansion is one of the causes of the inflation beyond the monetary expansion. What are the similarities and differences between those two phenomena?

  Antony Mueller: Money comes into circulation through the channel of credit. Commercial banks get a loan from the central bank and provide loans to consumers, business, and government. Thus, there are two sources of credit creation and two basic types of money: central bank money and depository money. The modern monetary system is a pure credit system based on fiat money without a physical backing such as gold, for example. Governments left the gold standard with the beginning of World War I and they never returned to it. Nowadays, the government through its central bank can create as much money as it wants.

  Godoy: What exactly is the relationship between credit and money?

  Mueller: While fiat money is based on credit, not all money impacts on the economy. For example, commercial banks can borrow money from the central bank and not use it for loans but deposit it in their accounts at the central bank. Then more central bank money does not mean more commercial credit for the investors and consumers in the economy. Also, more money that comes into the economy does not necessarily mean more demand because the holders of money may slow down the frequency of transaction–the so-called velocity of money. When the economic agents spend less and hold their money assets for longer period of time, the velocity of circulation of money slows. Therefore, it is wrong to postulate that more money means more credit and that more money always means more spending. That was the false assumption of the monetarists.

  Godoy: Concerning the exchange rate policy, how can the variations of the exchange rate lead to inflation?

  Mueller: In the long run, the exchange rate reflects the purchasing power parity. In the short run, however, significant deviations happen because of policy intervention and because the central banks manipulate the interest rate. One intervention leads to the next, and finally everything gets messed up. For example, when the governments try to stimulate their economies through extra deficit spending, the interest rate should rise because of inflationary expectations, yet the central bank may counter this and keep the monetary interest artificially below its natural rate. In this case, smart money leaves the country and the currency devalues. When, as it is often the case with developing countries and emerging economies, the import elasticity is low, the quantity of the imports will not fall very much even when the price of the imports in domestic currency rises as a consequence of the exchange rate devaluation. This then may ignite price inflation at home and then, in turn, even more money tends to leave the country. In its desperation, government then typically feels forced to manipulate the exchange rate or to impose capital controls. In the end, the mess is so great that the stimulus experiment backfires and instead of the intended economic expansion, the country suffers a foreign exchange crisis along with an economic contraction or even a collapse.

  Godoy: Inflation is a subject that often shows up in the news, but the causes of the inflation do not get as much attention as its consequences. What are the causes of inflation and how do the factors interact?

  Mueller: Let us first make it clear that the term “inflation” suffers from a false use. The exact meaning of inflation is the expansion of the money supply. To say that “inflation rose” makes no sense because the term inflation refers to a volume, the monetary volume, which can expand (inflate) or contract (deflate). When I talk about the price level, I prefer the term “price inflation” to differentiate the fall and rise of the price level from the inflation that takes place with the expansion and contraction of the money supply. Additionally, Austrian economics stresses that the relationship between monetary expansion and the price level does not work in a mechanical way.

  Godoy: Could you explain the process?

  Mueller: To put the problem as simply as possible, one may say that price inflation happens when spending grows faster than the production. An excess of spending over production results when the money supply expands and when business, consumers, and government borrow to spend more. The discrepancy between the demand and the supply of goods and services leads to rising prices. Price inflation may also happen without the expansion of the money supply when a so-called supply shock happens and the supply of goods contracts. Then prices rise because the volume of goods has shrunk while the money supply has not changed. In order to understand inflation, one must keep various factors in mind: the process of how money enters the economy beginning with the central banks and the credit policy of the commercial banks, the rates of change of the money supply, of the credit volume, and of the velocity of transaction, as well as the nominal aggregate spending compared to the real supply of goods and services. The economics of inflation is not an easy topic.

  Godoy: When the government expands the monetary base but the commercial banks do not put the excess money into circulation, money in the hands of the public does not increase. Does this mean that in this case there will be no increase of prices and reduction of the purchasing power?

  Mueller: Yes, that is how it works. In the end, the outcome depends on human action. Human action takes place in time and therefore expectations matter. Inflationary expectations feed on themselves and likewise do deflationary expectations. That is why both processes, once they gain momentum, are so hard to control. If we had a sound monetary system, expectations would be relatively stable. Yet we have a state-run fiat monetary system with fractional reserve. Such a monetary system is not only very volatile but prone to prolonged phases of credit expansion and credit contraction. These big cycles can cover decades. We have been experiencing such an expansionary cycle in the industrialized countries since the end of the link of the US dollar to gold in the 1970s.

  Godoy: Can this cycle end?

  Mueller: This current cycle has been long overdue to turn into a contraction. Yet all major central banks have been fighting like mad against the trend. In Japan, the futile fight began already in the 1990s, in the United States it started at the beginning of the new millennium. Since the European debt crisis about ten years ago, the European Central Bank has also joined in. Thus, what we observe today is a desperate fight against deflation.

  Godoy: How does the unitary decrease in the money value happen under a fiat system?

  Mueller: Under the gold standard or a similar system with a strong anchor that moors the money supply, there will be fluctuation of the money supply in the short run. In the long run, prices will tend to fall as productivity increases. Expectations do not get out of whack, because inflation and deflation cannot deviate disproportionately. Yet under a fiat monetary system, inflation and deflation can take on excessive proportions. I fear that the ketchup parable of inflation holds up. You shake and hit the bottom of the ketchup bottle, but nothing comes out. Suddenly, the ketchup splashes onto your plate, on the table and on your shirt in a burst. It is the same with money inflation. The central banks push and shake, and no price inflation appears, until it suddenly comes as a massive burst of price increases and as hyperinflation. The analogy holds also for what comes after it. Whereas the ketchup sauce pours out of the bottle in a splash, it takes a lot of work and a long time to get the excess sauce back into the bottle. In fact, a full redoing will be impossible. Under a fiat monetary system, it is not only inflation that comes suddenly as a splash but also deflation. Under a fiat system, a monetary contraction is malicious, because it will typically show up out of the blue and play havoc with the business of the economic agents.

  Godoy: As a final question, please let me ask you for your outlook for the US American economy compared to Brazil’s.

  Mueller: The two economies are in very different stages of the business cycle. Brazil is still in a slump that began five years ago which brought with it an unemployment rate of over ten percent (and the rate still lingers above this mark), while the United States is officially at full employment. The question is when Brazil may recover and if the United States economy will tank. First to Brazil: Since January 1, 2019, Brazil has a new government which is different from its predecessors, as it has a strong promarket profile. Confidence is on the rise, and in this respect it is only a question of time when the Brazilian economy will recover. However, there are two risks: firstly, that inflation may come back to haunt Brazil when the recovery gets stronger and secondly, what will happen if the international economic environment continues to weaken and Brazil’s major trading partners, including China, enter into a recession.

  Godoy: How about the United States?

  Mueller: The policymakers have fabricated a gigantic balloon that has taken us atop a pyramid. We know that this situation is unsustainable, but we do not know to which side the balloon will fall. The American central bank has tried several times to deflate the balloon but blinked as soon as the stock market started to wobble. Like fiscal policy, monetary policy has painted itself into a corner: fiscal policy with too much public debt and monetary policy with too much private sector debt. Austrian economists have always warned that such policies of excessive credit creation will end in a disaster. I suspect that we have moved beyond the disaster stage and are approaching a catastrophe, which hopefully will serve as a wake-up call and alert the public and the policymakers about the need to reform the monetary system.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 03/11/2020 – 19:45

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• Orders Plunge For Italy's Luxury Suppliers Amid Nationwide Lockdown
  Orders Plunge For Italy’s Luxury Suppliers Amid Nationwide Lockdown

  Industry sources told Reuters on Tuesday that global luxury brands, including Louis Vuitton, Parada, and others, have significantly reduced orders with top Italian suppliers as Covid-19 disruptions are seen across the world.

  Italy has imposed unprecedented travel restrictions on 60 million of its people to contain the fast-spreading virus, which has so far resulted in 9,172 confirmed cases, with 463 deaths.

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  Reuters spoke with high-end clothing suppliers in Veneto, an area nearby Tuscany and affected by the new travel restrictions. Suppliers said a perfect storm of factors has been building since late January, as demand for luxury goods from China crashed, and Italian suppliers are suspending operations or running at less than full capacity because of a nationwide lockdown to contain the virus.

  “We were producing 800-1,000 handbags a month for Gucci. In February we made 450 and we have no orders for March,” said the operator of a small handbag supplier in Scandicci, an area outside Florence that is home to a major hub for leather goods production. “We don’t have orders for April or May either. The company has been brought to a standstill and we are having to put our workers on temporary redundancy schemes.”

  The virus has severely damaged the global luxury goods industry, already dealing with waning demand that started with the Hong Kong riots in the second half of 2019. Then the virus outbreak in China at the start of the year delivered an even larger blow to the industry as the world’s largest consumer was forced into quarantine.

  Flavio Cereda, an industry analyst at Jefferies, noted on Monday that he slashed his 2020 sales forecast for the global luxury goods market because of the virus outbreak in China, the Middle East, Europe, and the Americas.

  Cereda expects luxury goods sales will decline 3% on the year, as opposed to his earlier forecast of 1% growth.

  “Prolonged disruption of economic activity may well result in supply chain issues for most brands,” he said, adding, however, that he had no evidence of that happening yet.

  The Scandicci manufacturing hub is an area home to top suppliers for LVMH, Kering, and Prada has had strict travel restrictions go into effect to start the week, which has forced some companies to operate at less than full capacity.

  Massimiliano Guerrini is the owner of Almax, a Scandicci-based luxury goods supplier for top luxury brands, said orders noticeably decreased when China started shutting down in late January due to the virus outbreak.

  “I thought things were not too bad given the circumstances, but now this new alarm in Italy risks making more casualties among businesses than among people and disrupting the supply chain for the orders that are still in the pipeline,” he said.

  “We have 270 employees and have diversified our customers, so we managed to mitigate the impact so far. But some of the smaller suppliers are not going to make it.”

  Reuters spoke with an operator of another supplier in Veneto, who reported a 30% slump in orders from Louis Vuitton.

  Claudio Marenzi, President of Confindustria Moda, a trade organization in Italy, said the Italian textiles industry could see rapid consolidation this year as the virus crisis across the world is causing severe demand shocks that are also resulting in supply shocks as suppliers in Italy idle plants on a nationwide lockdown.

  “Since the virus emerged in China we knew there was going to be a slowdown in the first quarter. But now the whole year risks going up in smoke for us,” Marenzi said.

  Italy is Europe’s third-largest economy, and the lockdown across the country could result in a recession. 

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 03/11/2020 – 02:45

• Merkel Expects 60-70% Of Germans To Be Infected With Coronavirus
  Merkel Expects 60-70% Of Germans To Be Infected With Coronavirus

  Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

  Angela Merkel says she expects around 60-70 per cent of Germans will be infected with the coronavirus, which equates to about 53 million people.

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  Reportedly, the German Parliament fell completely silent when Merkel stated the number.

  News outlet Bild reported the German Chancellor’s comments, which echoed numbers forecast by Berlin virologist Christian Drosten, who added that such a total could take 2 years or longer to reach.

  Given the fact that coronavirus has a mortality rate of around 1 per cent, this could equate to over half a million deaths, although new methods of fighting the virus could reduce this number.

  The World Health Organization’s director general, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus claimed that the death rate was higher at 3.4 per cent, although this has been disputed.

  Germany, which has recorded 1,565 coronavirus cases and two deaths so far, has yet to impose the kind of quarantine measures seen in Italy, where the entire country has been placed on lockdown.

  German health authorities have said that people should avoid attending concerts, clubs or football games to limit the spread of the illness.

  *  *  *

  My voice is being silenced by free speech-hating Silicon Valley behemoths who want me disappeared forever. It is CRUCIAL that you support me. Please sign up for the free newsletter here. Donate to me on SubscribeStar here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 03/11/2020 – 02:00

• Covid-19, AIDS, & The Politics Of Viral Fear
  Covid-19, AIDS, & The Politics Of Viral Fear

  Authored by Peter van Buren via TheAmericanConservative.com,

  In the 1980’s, agenda-driven panic around the HIV epidemic set back the public health response by years…

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  Nothing is more viral than fear. Fear – fight or flight – is a terrible way to make decisions that call for time, science, and rational thinking. Want to screw up a public health crisis? Let fear drive.

  Democrats, Pavlovian conditioned by years of believing everything Trump does is “an existential threat,” are about twice as likely as Republicans to say the coronavirus poses an imminent danger. Make a joke of it—pandemic or Dempanic—but one’s political party should not affect how we respond to an epidemic.

  “Our hyper-polarization is so strong that we don’t even assess a potential health crisis in the same way. And so it impedes our ability to address it,” saidsaid Jennifer McCoy, a Georgia State political science professor who studies polarization.

   “I am not scared of Covid-19,” Abdu Sharkawy, an infectious disease expertat the University of Toronto in Canada,an infectious disease expert wrote.

  “I am scared about the loss of reason and wave of fear that has induced the masses of society into a spellbinding spiral of panic.”

  This is not about downplaying something serious. It is about preventing mistakes that will make things worse. Trump Derangement Syndrome might actually help kill us this time, as fear makes for poor public health decisions. Remember the 1980’s?

  In 1981 the CDC reported five cases of a new pneumonia. The disease didn’t even have a name until the next year, and wasn’t isolated in the lab until 1984. AIDS would go on to kill over 500,000 Americans. Yet while a horrible disease and a miserable way to die, in retrospect “the problem with AIDS was really two epidemics—the real health epidemic and the epidemic of the mind,” said Boston’s WBZ-TV station manager Tom Goodgame, quoted in Time. Meanwell, The New York Timesconcluded, “in the 1980’s, fear spread faster than AIDS.”

  America paid the price in lives.

  The fear was measurable. In the mid-80’s 60 percent of Americans wanted HIV+ people to carry a card noting their status; one in three said employers should fire employees who had AIDS. Some 21 percent said people with AIDS should be isolated from the rest of society in leper colonies. Even a professional medical journal wrote, “A specter is haunting our streets — the specter of AIDS, a remorseless and incurable disease whose nature, transmission and effects still contain elements of mystery.”

  Those mysteries are always the most dangerous elements in shaping public health policy via fear, and with AIDS, centered on exaggerating the problem. When early cases surfaced inside communities already viewed as modern day Sodoms, many sought to exaggerate the crisis from a quasi-religious point of view: God was smiting the gays. Tragically, too many felt the more who died of AIDS the better, and played up the deaths as “Judgement.” The rest of us, God-fearing, were safe. Homophobia manifested as fear crushed human compassion. It’s almost like hoping the current economy goes into recession, destroying the savings of millions of Americans, so Trump’s chances of reelection fall. Or one politician hoping the virus infects those at MAGA rallies.

  In the 1980’s, the Reagan administration, with its political debt to newly-empowered evangelical voters, was indifferent at best toward the study or prevention of AIDS. Congress agreed; in 1987 it banned the use of federal funds for AIDS prevention and education that “promoted or encouraged, directly or indirectly, homosexual activities.”

  Years were lost as the virus spread, and too many died because of the delay in funding.

  We were not innocent. In the mid-to-late 1980s “AIDS hysteria” was a familiar term in the media and public life, and popular comedians made crude jokes to amuse us. A study found “health care trainees and professionals demonstrated their level of empathy and caring for HIV/AIDS is negatively affected by the knowledge that the person being treated is homosexual.” A 1985 Time magazine story, “The New Untouchables,” focused on an incident in New York where parents refused to send their children to a school after one student was identified as HIV+. “What about somebody sneezing in the classroom? What about the water fountain? What about kids who get in a fight with a bloody nose? They don’t know!” said one frightened parent.

  Gay activists also sought to drive public opinion through fear. The fear of a “heterosexual breakout” was employed to coax a Middle American audience toward political awareness. The community also exaggerated the crisis as spur to more government funding. In 1988, after New York revised its estimates of HIV+ citizens significantly downward, members of AIDS Coalition to Unleash Power were arrested at a sit-in at the Health Department. Hecklers trailed the Health Commissioner demanding he resign. His home was picketed and spray-painted. There were death threats against him. Yet statistical studies some 30 years later showed even his lower numbers from the 1980s overestimated the extent of the epidemic by some 50 percent. The Commissioner had been right to tamp down the threat.

  Activists justify their use of fear as the only way to have focused attention on the disease. But that ignores the tragic results of their actions. While funding did increase, much of the government’s early AIDS-prevention budget was used to raise awareness among hetero college students, women, and others who faced relatively low risk. Money was diverted away from the communities that needed it most.

  Even today, AIDS and other fear-mongered diseases soak up a disproportionate share of research funds. Diseases that account for 84 percent of deaths in the U.S. get less than half of NIH funding. Cancer and HIV/AIDS in particular receive a disproportionately large amount, while chronic diseases like diabetes and obesity receive less funding relative to the costs they impose on society.

  The worry is always the unknown, and on Day One of an epidemic nearly everything is unknown. Mistakes get made as protocols are created (in reality, field tested) on the fly. Japan, with an excellent universal health care system and a non-partisan public health bureaucracy, miserably mishandled a cruise ship quarantine, turning the boat into a virus incubator. Remember when people believed they should not shake hands with a gay man for fear of catching the disease? Only when science replaced fear did AIDS subside to where today the disease is a manageable element of public health.

  “AIDS is grim enough without exaggeration,” cited one New York Times editorial 1987. It continued:

   “Why has the truth disappeared so far from view? Perhaps because the chief interpreters of the data want to reflect their own messages. Public health experts see a unique chance to reduce all sexually transmitted diseases. Medical researchers demand $1 billion in new Federal spending against AIDS, hoping to refurbish their laboratories. Government epidemiologists, seeking to protect homosexuals and drug addicts, fear the Reagan Administration may acquire the notion that these are the only people at risk. Moralists see a heaven-sent chance to preach fire, brimstone and restricted sex. Homosexuals have no desire to carry the stigma of AIDS alone.”

  While fear as a political manipulative tool is nothing new, the coronavirus panic appears at a new place in America. Social media encourages people Joker-like to pour fuel on fires. MSM pursues an unambiguous political agenda when it is not just peddling raw anxiety as a profit center. We are ever more diverse and ever more subreddit separated. It isn’t safe anymore for us to have common fears.

  Wash your hands. Ask questions. But keep fear in check. As you encounter information focusing on worst-case scenarios, which seems to exaggerate unknowns, uses terms like surge, crash, skyrocket, Katrina, is more White House gossip than science, anything that starts with Report: ask yourself if the primary purpose is peddling fear — to sell you a product, to get you to click, to influence your vote. Socially isolate yourself from that source.

  And stop reading political journalists to learn about a health issue. 

  Politico, currently bleating out Trump isn’t doing enough and is bungling what he is doing, was only recently criticizing Trump’s prescient travel ban for China travelers as ineffective, and worried it would antagonize Chinese leaders. I write this from New York, under a declared state of emergency. Yet for all the screaming headlines one finds the primary motivation for the declaration was simply “a more expedited purchasing and testing protocol.” It’s more about a better bureaucracy now than something with sirens and flashing lights now.

  The numbers will go up until they start going down (new cases are declining in China and South Korea.) There is nothing investors fear more than uncertainty, kryptonite to the markets. Right now that is all there is and volatility in the markets will continue until uncertainty, and then fear, back off. Before you blame someone or something, figure out how to blame away the virus in China, Italy, Iran, and elsewhere where they don’t have Trump, and do have universal healthcare, sick leave or whatever other partisan talking point is being pushed. Panic is easy, a measured response hard. We need to make good decisions. Lives depend on it.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 03/11/2020 – 00:05

• Visualizing The Most Loved Brands, By Generation
  Visualizing The Most Loved Brands, By Generation

  When it comes to buying into brands, consumers are spoiled for choice, but, as Visual Capitalist’s Katie Jones notes, the vast amount of options available makes it increasingly difficult for brands to build meaningful emotional connections with them.

  But for the brands that do, the payoff can be huge.

  Today’s graphic pulls data from MBLM’s 2020 Brand Intimacy Report and visualizes the top 10 brands that different generations connect with the most.

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  Can Emotion Be Measured?

  Brands that tap into consumers’ emotions can establish higher levels of trust. This in turn creates a culture of loyalty that could ensure a unique standing in the market and long-term growth.

  In fact, intimate brands that have a strong emotional bond with their consumers tend to outperform top companies listed on the S&P 500 and Fortune 500 in both revenue and profit. To measure how brands emotionally connect with consumers, MBLM looked at four key factors:

  • Users: The existing relationship between a brand and a consumer

  • Emotional Connection: The degree of positive feelings the user has for a brand, and the extent to which their personal values align with the brand’s values

  • Archetype: The six markers that are present among intimate brands, which include fulfillment, identity, enhancement, ritual, nostalgia, and indulgence

  • Stage: The degree of intensity in the relationship across three phases: sharing, bonding, and fusing

  • Intimacy Score: Based on these four components, a score is assigned, ranging from 0-100

  The total score also reveals which brands rank the highest across different age groups. While there are some commonalities across each generation, can brands be all things to all people?

  The Chosen One

  There are very few brands that have the luxury of retaining loyal customers from different age brackets. Amazon, however, manages to transcend age. The retail giant appears in the top five for Millennials, Gen X, and Baby Boomers—with the latter awarding the brand their #1 spot.

  Every generation named “enhancement” as Amazon’s defining trait, meaning their lives have improved as a result of the relationship. The “ritual” trait also scored high, with users claiming the brand has become ingrained into their daily behavior.

  Ranked: Top Brands by Generation

  Gen Z and Millennials (18-34)

  Sony-owned PlayStation holds the title for the most intimate brand among Millennials, climbing up from the 8th spot in 2019. Impressively, more than 50% of Millennials have an emotional connection to the brand, with men having a particularly strong affinity for it.

  Having recently celebrated its 25th anniversary, the gaming brand’s success has been fueled by the increasing popularity of multiplayer and professional gaming, as well as new product innovation—with five of the ten best selling consoles owned by PlayStation.

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  Interestingly, when Gen Z (18-24) are singled out, Microsoft-owned Xbox ranks as #1, increasing its score to 73.5 in 2020 from 49.7 in 2018.

  Gen X (35-54)

  As the generational middle child, Gen X did not grow up with the same access to technology. However, their tech adoption is almost on par with Millennials, with similar adoption rates across tablet and smartphone ownership.

  It is no surprise therefore, that Apple has captured the hearts of this generation, sitting proudly in first place. When the iPhone launched in 2007, this group was between 22-41 years old, so they have likely been loyal followers of the tech brand since its earlier days.

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  While this generation has no qualms about shopping online, 72% of them shop in brick and mortar stores and are satisfied with doing so—which may be part of the reason why retail giant Walmart joins Amazon in the top 10.

  Baby Boomers (55-64)

  Controlling almost 70% of disposable income in the U.S., Baby Boomers are arguably the most influential of all consumer groups.

  While they feel the most emotionally connected to Amazon, it’s also true that Apple was another tech brand to win the affection of this age group.

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  This generation dominates almost 50% of consumer packaged goods (CPG) sales in the U.S.—which likely explains why the rest of their top brands are more traditional household names, such as Macy’s, Hershey’s, and Kellogg’s.

  It is also clear from the ranking that this group values brands with nostalgic qualities, as well as the ability to provide them with moments of indulgence.

  The Changing Brand Landscape

  The brand and consumer relationship has shifted with the ages, but each generation’s unique value system has remained the most important piece of the puzzle.

  It is worth noting that none of the Baby Boomer’s favorite brands appear in the ranking for those aged 18-24 (Gen Z). Are the preferences of younger generations signalling a cultural shift, in which we place more value on distraction rather than satisfaction?

  Note: The 2020 Brand Intimacy Report covers an age range of 18-64. The way that the ranking is structured makes it difficult to reflect conventional demographic groups (e.g. Gen Z, the Silent Generation etc.)

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 03/10/2020 – 23:45

• This Is A Test: How Will The Constitution Fare During A Nationwide Lockdown?
  This Is A Test: How Will The Constitution Fare During A Nationwide Lockdown?

  Authored by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

  “It takes a remarkable force to keep nearly a million people quietly indoors for an entire day, home from work and school, from neighborhood errands and out-of-town travel. It takes a remarkable force to keep businesses closed and cars off the road, to keep playgrounds empty and porches unused across a densely populated place 125 square miles in size. This happened … not because armed officers went door-to-door, or imposed a curfew, or threatened martial law. All around the region, for 13 hours, people locked up their businesses and ‘sheltered in place’ out of a kind of collective will. The force that kept them there wasn’t external – there was virtually no active enforcement across the city of the governor’s plea that people stay indoors. Rather, the pressure was an internal one – expressed as concern, or helpfulness, or in some cases, fear – felt in thousands of individual homes.”

  – Journalist Emily Badger, “The Psychology of a Citywide Lockdown”

  This is a test.

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  This is not a test of our commitment to basic hygiene or disaster preparedness or our ability to come together as a nation in times of crisis, although we’re not doing so well on any of those fronts.

  No, what is about to unfold over the next few weeks is a test to see how well we have assimilated the government’s lessons in compliance, fear and police state tactics; a test to see how quickly we’ll march in lockstep with the government’s dictates, no questions asked; and a test to see how little resistance we offer up to the government’s power grabs when made in the name of national security.

  Most critically of all, this is a test to see whether the Constitution—and our commitment to the principles enshrined in the Bill of Rights—can survive a national crisis and true state of emergency.

  Here’s what we know: whatever the so-called threat to the nation—whether it’s civil unrest, school shootings, alleged acts of terrorism, or the threat of a global pandemic in the case of COVID-19—the government has a tendency to capitalize on the nation’s heightened emotions, confusion and fear as a means of extending the reach of the police state.

  This coronavirus epidemic, which has brought China’s Orwellian surveillance out of the shadows and caused Italy to declare a nationwide lockdown, threatens to bring the American Police State out into the open on a scale we’ve not seen before.

  If and when a nationwide lockdown finally hits—if and when we are forced to shelter in place— if and when militarized police are patrolling the streets— if and when security checkpoints have been established— if and when the media’s ability to broadcast the news has been curtailed by government censors—if and when public systems of communication (phone lines, internet, text messaging, etc.) have been restricted—if and when those FEMA camps the government has been surreptitiously building finally get used as quarantine detention centers for American citizens—if and when military “snatch and grab” teams are deployed on local, state, and federal levels as part of the activated Continuity of Government plans to isolate anyone suspected of being infected with COVID-19—and if and when martial law is enacted with little real outcry or resistance from the public—then we will truly understand the extent to which the government has fully succeeded in recalibrating our general distaste for anything that smacks too overtly of tyranny.

  This is how it begins.

  The coronavirus epidemic may well be a legitimate health concern, but it’s the government’s response to it that worries me more in the long term.

  Based on the government’s track record and its long-anticipated plans for instituting martial law (using armed forces to solve domestic political and social problems) in response to a future crisis, there’s good reason to worry.

  This is not a government with a rosy view of the future.

  To the contrary, the government’s vision of the future is particularly ominous if a Pentagon training video created by the Army for U.S. Special Operations Command is anything to go by.

  Obtained by The Intercept through a FOIA request, the training video titled “Megacities: Urban Future, the Emerging Complexity” provides a chilling glimpse of what the government expects the world to look like in 2030, a world bedeviled by “criminal networks,” “substandard infrastructure,” “religious and ethnic tensions,” “impoverishment, slums,” “open landfills, over-burdened sewers,” a “growing mass of unemployed,” and an urban landscape in which the prosperous economic elite must be protected from the impoverishment of the have nots.

  Add health contagions to the mix, and we’re arrived there, ten years ahead of schedule.

  The training video is only five minutes long, but it says a lot about the government’s mindset and the way its views the citizenry. Even more troubling, however, is what this military video doesn’t say about the Constitution and the rights of the citizenry: nothing at all.

  In typical fashion, the government seems to consider the Constitution only when forced to do so. It complies with the dictates of the Constitution even less frequently. Indeed, the government’s efforts to systematically lock down the nation and shift us into martial law have not been stymied one iota by the restraints imposed upon it by the Constitution: when it’s not bulldozing its way through the Fourth Amendment, the government just sidesteps it (with the help of the courts).

  So what should you expect if the government decides to declare a national state of emergency and institute a nationwide lockdown?

  More of the same of what we’ve been seeing in recent years.

  After all, like the proverbial boiling frogs, the government has been gradually acclimating us to the specter of a police state for years now: Militarized police. Riot squads. Camouflage gear. Black uniforms. Armored vehicles. Mass arrests. Pepper spray. Tear gas. Batons. Strip searches. Surveillance cameras. Kevlar vests. Drones. Lethal weapons. Less-than-lethal weapons unleashed with deadly force. Rubber bullets. Water cannons. Stun grenades. Arrests of journalists. Crowd control tactics. Intimidation tactics. Brutality.

  This is how you prepare a populace to accept a police state willingly, even gratefully.

  You don’t scare them by making dramatic changes. Rather, you acclimate them slowly to their prison walls. Persuade the citizenry that their prison walls are merely intended to keep them safe and danger out. Desensitize them to violence, acclimate them to a military presence in their communities, and persuade them that only a militarized government can alter the seemingly hopeless trajectory of the nation.

  It’s happening already.

  The sight of police clad in body armor and gas masks, wielding semiautomatic rifles and escorting an armored vehicle through a crowded street, a scene likened to “a military patrol through a hostile city,” no longer causes alarm among the general populace.

  We’ve allowed ourselves to be acclimated to the occasional lockdown of government buildings, Jade Helm military drills in small towns so that special operations forces can get “realistic military training” in “hostile” territory, and  Live Active Shooter Drill training exercises, carried out at schools, in shopping malls, and on public transit, which can and do fool law enforcement officials, students, teachers and bystanders into thinking it’s a real crisis.

  Still, you can’t say we weren’t warned.

  Back in 2008, an Army War College report revealed that “widespread civil violence inside the United States would force the defense establishment to reorient priorities in extremis to defend basic domestic order and human security.” The 44-page report went on to warn that potential causes for such civil unrest could include another terrorist attack, “unforeseen economic collapse, loss of functioning political and legal order, purposeful domestic resistance or insurgency, pervasive public health emergencies, and catastrophic natural and human disasters.”

  In 2009, reports by the Department of Homeland Security surfaced that called on the government to subject right-wing and left-wing activists and military veterans to full-fledged pre-crime surveillance.

  Meanwhile, the government has been amassing an arsenal of military weapons, including hollow point bullets, for use domestically and equipping and training their “troops” for war. Even government agencies with largely administrative functions such as the Food and Drug Administration, Department of Veterans Affairs, and the Smithsonian have been acquiring body armor, riot helmets and shields, cannon launchers and police firearms and ammunition. In fact, there are now at least 120,000 armed federal agents carrying such weapons who possess the power to arrest.

  Rounding out this profit-driven campaign to turn American citizens into enemy combatants (and America into a battlefield) is a technology sector that has been colluding with the government to create a Big Brother that is all-knowing, all-seeing and inescapable. It’s not just the drones, fusion centers, license plate readers, stingray devices and the NSA that you have to worry about. You’re also being tracked by the black boxes in your cars, your cell phone, smart devices in your home, grocery loyalty cards, social media accounts, credit cards, streaming services such as Netflix, Amazon, and e-book reader accounts.

  All of this has taken place right under our noses, funded with our taxpayer dollars and carried out in broad daylight without so much as a general outcry from the citizenry.

  And then you have the government’s Machiavellian schemes for unleashing all manner of dangers on an unsuspecting populace, then demanding additional powers in order to protect “we the people” from the threats. Almost every national security threat that the government has claimed greater powers in order to fight—all the while undermining the liberties of the American citizenry—has been manufactured in one way or another by the government.

  We have made it way too easy for the government to lockdown the nation.

  Consider that it was seven years ago when the city of Boston was locked down while police carried out a military-style manhunt for suspects in the 2013 Boston Marathon explosion. 

  Six years ago, the city of Ferguson, Missouri, was locked down, with government officials deploying a massive SWAT team, an armored personnel carrier, men in camouflage pointing heavy artillery at the crowd, smoke bombs and tear gas to quell citizen unrest over a police shooting of a young, unarmed black man.

  Five years ago, the city of Baltimore was put under a military-enforced lockdown after civil unrest over police brutality erupted into rioting. More than 1,500 national guard troops were deployed while residents were ordered to stay inside their homes and put under a 10 pm curfew.

  Three years ago, it was Charlottesville, Va., population 50,000, that was locked down while government officials declared a state of emergency and enacted heightened security measures tantamount to martial law, despite the absence of any publicized information about credible threats to public safety.

  Fast forward to the present moment, with the world on the verge of a possible coronavirus pandemic, and growing numbers of Americans are already voluntarily sheltering in place in an effort to avoid falling ill.

  For those like myself who have studied emerging police states, the sight of any American city placed under martial law—its citizens essentially under house arrest (officials used the Orwellian phrase “shelter in place” in Boston to describe the mandatory lockdown), military-style helicopters equipped with thermal imaging devices buzzing the skies, tanks and armored vehicles on the streets, and snipers perched on rooftops, while thousands of black-garbed police swarmed the streets and SWAT teams carried out house-to-house searches—leaves us in a growing state of unease.

  Watching the events of the various lockdowns unfold, I couldn’t help but think of Nazi Field Marshal Hermann Goering’s remarks during the Nuremberg trials. As Goering noted:

  It is always a simple matter to drag people along whether it is a democracy, or a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. This is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same in every country.

  It does indeed work the same in every country.

  Unfortunately, it doesn’t take much for the American people to be terrorized into compliance by the government’s latest and greatest scare tactic, even if it means being stripped of one’s constitutional rights at a moment’s notice.

  This continual undermining of the rules that protect civil liberties has far-reaching consequences on a populace that not only remains ignorant about their rights but is inclined to sacrifice their liberties for phantom promises of safety.

  It may be that we’ve already gone too far down this road. However, don’t let this latest “crisis” cause you to panic to such an extent that you relinquish your fundamental right to make decisions for yourself and your loved ones and willingly surrender what remains of your freedoms.

  This too shall pass.

  Remember, a police state does not come about overnight.

  Yet as I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, no matter how it starts, with a questionable infringement justified in the name of safety or a nationwide lockdown to guard against a global pandemic, it always ends the same: by pushing us one step closer to a future in which the government has all the power and “we the people” have none. 

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 03/10/2020 – 23:25

• The Size Of America's Immigrant Electorate Doubled Since 2000
  The Size Of America’s Immigrant Electorate Doubled Since 2000

  With Super Tuesday swiftly approaching, Pew Research released some new data about the immigrant electorate in the United States.

  The U.S. had approximately 12 million foreign-born eligible voters back in 2000 and that increased to 22 million by 2018. It is expected to grow even further this year, hitting 23.2 million. That’s a 93 percent increase since the turn of the century. As Statista’s Niall McCarthy notes, by the time Americans head to the polls in November, 9.8 percent of eligible voters will be foreign born, a record high. The U.S. born eligible voter population has also grown since 2000 but at a slower place, rising 18 percent from 181 million to 215 million by 2018.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  Two key developments are behind the trend.

  1. The nation’s immigrant population has increased from 9.6 million (5 percent of the population) to 45 million (13.9 percent of the population) since the Immigration and Nationality Act became law in 1965.

  2. The second is the rising share and number of immigrants becoming naturalized U.S. citizens.

  Some 7.2 million immigrants naturalized and became citizens between 2009 and 2019 alone.

  Today, people from Latin America (34 percent) and Asia (31 percent) make up the vast majority of immigrant eligible voters. Mexico comes first in terms of origin countries with 31 percent of the immigrant electorate or 3.5 million voters. The Philippines has the second highest absolute number with 1.4 million while India comes third with 1.4 million.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 03/10/2020 – 23:05

• You Can Get Paid $10,000 To Move To Tulsa…Will Other Cities Follow?
  You Can Get Paid $10,000 To Move To Tulsa…Will Other Cities Follow?

  Submitted by Market Crumbs,

  When you think of Tulsa, Oklahoma, you may not think it’s becoming a hotbed for coworking spaces filled with young professionals working remotely. The landlocked city with a population of about 400,000 people is often referred to as the “Oil Capital of the World.”

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Thanks to a program called Tulsa Remote, that’s exactly what is happening.

  The program, which is funded by the George Kaiser Family Foundation – an influential Tulsa-based philanthropy, is attracting people to Tulsa by paying them $10,000 in cash, providing desk space and offering other perks. The program is one of the first of its kind in the U.S., with similar ones implemented in Vermont, Alabama and Kansas.

  After seeing its population peak in 2016, Tulsa Remote is seen as a way to lure in talent to help reverse the declining population and boost the city’s economy.

  “The last few years have been the slowest population growth [in the state] since the late ‘80s, early ‘90s,” said Chad Wilkerson, branch executive of the Kansas City Fed’s Oklahoma City Branch office. “A good amount of it is driven by the downturn of the energy sector in 2014 and 2015, and people seeking jobs elsewhere.”

  Tulsa Remote is touting the city’s cost of living as its selling point to attract people from expensive coastal cities. The median home price in Tulsa is $157,200—43% below the national average, while the average rent for a 2 bedroom apartment is $658 per month.

  Tulsa Remote’s website even compares Tulsa’s cost of living to popular coastal cities that are facing affordability crises. Compared to San Francisco, the cost of living in Tulsa is 50% lower with the median home price 83% lower. Compared to Seattle, the cost of living and median home price in Tulsa are 38% and 68% lower, respectively. Compared to New York, the cost of living in Tulsa is a staggering 61% lower with the median home price 60% lower.

  “The citizens of Tulsa have invested substantial public funds to build the types of things that we believe make Tulsa a more appealing place for a new generation of workers,” said Tulsa Mayor G.T. Bynum.

  “And the Tulsa Remote program is really a great way to introduce the very kinds of workers that we’re hoping to appeal to, to the city that we’ve been building for the last decade to appeal to them.”

  Given some of the fastest-growing cities in the country are in states such as Texas, Arizona and Nevada, Tulsa Remote knows exactly what it’s doing by literally paying people to come work in a place that is significantly cheaper than most cities. Given Tulsa Remote is now accepting more workers than it did when it began in November 2018, it won’t be surprising to see more cities across the country introduce similar programs.m

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 03/10/2020 – 22:45

• US Home Flipping Soars Despite Profitability Plunging To 2011 Lows
  US Home Flipping Soars Despite Profitability Plunging To 2011 Lows

  While home-flipping activity soared to an eight-year high in 2019, profits cratered to an eight-year, according to a new report from Attom Data Solutions. 

  There were $32.5 billion in financed flips in 2019, up 21% from 2018 to a 13-year high. The $32.5 billion was the value of more than 245,864 single-family homes and condos that were flipped. 

  The number of homes flipped last year accounted for 6.2% of all homes sold across the country, an 8-year high. This is up from 5.8% of all homes sold in 2018. 

  With more and more Americans piling into the home-flipping game as mortgage rates decline, profit margins continued to deteriorate. The average flipper generated roughly $62,900 in gross profit last year, down 3.2% from $65,000 in 2018 and 6% from the peak of $66,899 in 2017.

  “Home-flipping profits across the US dropped again in 2019 as the business of buying and selling houses absorbed its worst year since the housing market was mired in the fallout from the Great Recession. This happened as the cost of buying properties continued to rise faster than gains on resale,” said Todd Teta, chief product officer at ATTOM Data Solutions.

  “That’s not to say that the home-flipping industry is tanking or losing its allure for investors because home flipping rates are higher than they’ve been in eight years. But profits did continue to decline again for investors,” Teta said. 

  The average gross flipping profit of $62,900 translated into a 40.6% ROI for flippers. This was down from 45.8% ROI in 2018 and down from 51.4% ROI in 2017. The latest returns have declined to levels not seen since 2011. 

  We noted in Sept 2019 that “the end is near” for home-flippers. Nobel laureate Robert Shiller sat down with Bloomberg late last summer and said, “I wouldn’t be surprised if home prices started falling, and it could be accompanied by a recession.”

  Nobel laureate Robert Shiller said he “wouldn’t be at all surprised” if U.S. house prices start to fall https://t.co/tqjfeGfo1l pic.twitter.com/mknbODH4Iq

  — Bloomberg Economics (@economics) September 5, 2019

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  As there is simply no logic in why more people would get into the home-flipping game as profitability sags, maybe the jump in financed flips because of lax lending standards has ushered in a wave of dumb money trying to make a quick buck in a market that is waning. 

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 03/10/2020 – 22:25

• Saudi-Initiated All-Out Oil War Could Lead To Collapse Of Kingdom Itself
  Saudi-Initiated All-Out Oil War Could Lead To Collapse Of Kingdom Itself

  Submitted by South Front,

  Saudi Arabia launched an all-out oil war offering unprecedented discounts and flooding the market in an attempt to capture a larger share and defeat other oil producers. This “scorched earth” approach caused the biggest oil price fall since the war in the Persian Gulf in 1991.

  It all began on March 8 when Riyadh cut its April pricing for crude sales to Asia by $4-$6 a barrel and to the U.S. by $7 a barrel. The Kingdom expanded the discount for its flagship Arab Light crude to refiners in northwest Europe by $8 a barrel offering it at $10.25 a barrel under the Brent benchmark. In comparison, Russia’s Urals crude trades at a discount of about $2 a barrel under Brent. These actions became an attack at the ability of Russia to sell crude in Europe. The Russian ruble immediately plummeted almost 10% falling to its lowest level in more than four years.

  Another side that suffered from Saudi actions is Iran. The Islamic country is facing a strong US sanctions pressure and often selling its oil via complex schemes and with notable discounts already.

  Saudi Arabia is planning to increase its output above 10 million barrel per day. Currently, it pumps 9.7 million barrels per day, but has the capacity to ramp up to 12.5 million barrels per day. According to OPEC and Saudi sources of The Wall Street Journal, Riyadh’s actions are part of an “aggressive campaign” against Moscow.

  The formal pretext of this campaign became the inability of the OPEC+ (a meeting of representatives of member states of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC members) to extend output agreements.

  Saudi Arabia was seeking up to 1.5 million b/d in further oil production cuts, but this proposal was rejected by Russia. After the inability to reach the new OPEC+ deal, Saudi Arabia became the frist and only power that took aggressive actions on the market. However, it is hard to imagine that Saudi Arabia would go for such an escalation without at least an order or approval from Washington.

  This came amid the detention of two senior members of the Saudi royal family – Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz, the younger brother of King Salman, and Mohammed bin Nayef, the king’s nephew – on March 7. This development took place just ahead of the Saudi offensive on the oil market, and was likely a tip of the ongoing undercover struggle between the pro-US and pro-national factions of the Saudi elites; and the pro-US bloc seems to have the upper hand in this conflict.

  In this case, the real goal of the Saudi campaign is not only to secure larger share of the oil market and punish Moscow for its unwillingness to accept the proposed OPEC+ deal, but to deliver a powerful blow to Washington’s geopolitical opponents: Russia and Iran. Pro-Western and anti-government forces existing in both Russia and Iran would try to exploit this situation to destabilize the internal situation in the countries.

  On the other hand, Saudi Arabia may soon find out that its actions have backfired. Such economic and geopolitical games amid the acute conflict with Iran, military setbacks in Yemen and the increasing regional standoff with the UAE could cost too much for the Kingdom itself.

  If the oil prices fall any further and reach $20 per barrel, this will lead to unacceptable economic losses for Russia and Iran, and they could and will likely opt to use nonmarket tools of influencing the Saudi behavior. These options include the increasing support to Yemen’s Houthis with intelligence, weapons, money, and even military advisers, that will lead to the resumption of Houthi strikes on Saudi oil infrastructure.

  On top of these, the Saudi leadership may suddenly find that the internal situation in the Kingdom is being worsened by large-scale protests rapidly turning into an open civil conflict.

  Such a scenario is no secret for international financial analysts. On March 8, shares of Saudi state oil company Aramco slumped below their initial public offering (IPO) and closed 9.1% lower. On March 9, it continued the fall plunging another 10%.  There appears to be a lack of buyers. The risks are too obvious.

  At the same time, the range of possible US actions in support of Saudi Arabia in the event of such an escalation is limited by the ongoing presidential campaign. Earlier, President Donald Trump demonstrated that a US military base could become a target of direct missile strike and Washington will not order a direct military action in response. Taking into account other examples of the US current approach towards non-Israeli allies, Riyadh should not expect any real support from its American allies in this standoff.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 03/10/2020 – 22:05

• "Dead Bat Bounce" Dies – Dow Futs Down Over 500 Pts, Treasury Yields Are Tumbling
  “Dead Bat Bounce” Dies – Dow Futs Down Over 500 Pts, Treasury Yields Are Tumbling

  Well that re-escalated quickly…

  A disappointing lack of detail -despite promises of unlimited spending – appears to have upset the market’s vibe from a day of panic-buying to very technical level of resistance.

  Dow futures are now down 550 points…

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  And 10Y Treasury yields are down 12bps…

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  Is anyone really surprised?

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 03/10/2020 – 21:49

• Coronavirus Threatens To Crash The Gig Economy  
  Coronavirus Threatens To Crash The Gig Economy  

  Millions of Americans are working in the gig-economy could soon discover their side hustle jobs, such as being an Uber driver, Amazon delivery driver, and or completing odd tasks for Handyman, could come to a halt (temporarily) as the Covid-19 outbreak disrupts local economies across the country. 

  We’ve noted in the past, more than 50 million Americans, or about 44% of all US workers, aged 18-64, are considered low-wage and low-skilled, have insurmountable debts (with limited savings), including auto, student, and credit card debts, are working in the gig-economy via side hustles and are most vulnerable to job losses. Many of these folks are also employed in the services sector, another corner of the job market that is high-risk of job loss if the virus outbreak starts forcing consumers to pull back on discretionary spending. 

  The dark side of the gig economy could soon be realized as virus impacts are starting to mount, especially in West Coast cities. Millions of gig economy workers are low paid and lack proper health insurance. Some of these folks have barebone policies that require them to pay the first few thousand dollars of medical bills. 

  The obvious risk to the gig economy so far is cities shutting down that forces a decline in the need for certain services, many of these folks don’t have a financial safety net nor health care for if they contract the virus. It’s simple: American workers aren’t prepared for a pandemic. 

  “Tales of sky-high bills are buzzing in the media. A Miami man says he received a $3,270 bill for a voluntary coronavirus test; an American evacuated from the outbreak’s epicentre in Wuhan China received a $3,918 bill for mandatory quarantine in San Diego,” said the Financial Times. 

  As cases and deaths soar in Seattle this week, the first views of the gig economy and services sector grinding to a halt is in downtown Seattle. The area has transformed into a ghost town, as the lack of tourists and people quarantined at home has created a demand shock for the local economy.

  Seattle is rapidly approaching post apocalyptic ghost town levels. Pike Place and Westlake are the emptiest I’ve ever seen pic.twitter.com/XRPCTL5t3F

  — Kate: my steam buns bring Lu Bu to the yard (@ArmyOfMeat) March 3, 2020

  Lakshman Achuthan, the co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, told CBS This Morning that further virus impacts on American cities could put a squeeze on household budgets and lead to a decline in discretionary spending. 

  ECRI comments on CBS: If there are mass school closings many household budgets will feel a squeeze, hurting discretionary spending. https://t.co/VIscAiZW0Z

  — Lakshman Achuthan (@businesscycle) March 5, 2020

  CNBC explains that gig economy workers aren’t just some of the most exposed people to contract the virus, they also have no safety net as regular jobs do, such as sick days, health care, and covered expenses. CNBC’s Deirdre Bosa said some gig economy workers have already seen their business halved in the last several weeks due to virus fears.

  Putting this all together, as cases and deaths soar in cities across the country, local economies could grind to a halt, and this could crash the gig economy and every millennial in it, who, frankly, many of which aren’t prepared for financial Armageddon unless they read ZeroHedge.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 03/10/2020 – 21:45

• Wikipedia Slashes Spanish Flu Death Rate
  Wikipedia Slashes Spanish Flu Death Rate

  Authored by Catte Black via Off-Guardian.org,

  We’ve had a couple of people take issue with us regarding the case fatality rate (CFR) of the 1918 Spanish Flu. Citing Wikipedia and the CDC we gave that rate as being between 10-20%. A couple of commenters, however, insisted the actual CFR was 2-3%, and this led us to look further.

  What we found was quite interesting.

  This is the pre-February 22 2020 opening paragraph of the ‘Mortality’ section on the Wiki page for the Spanish flu (our emphasis):

  The global mortality rate from the 1918–1919 pandemic is not known, but an estimated 10% to 20% of those who were infected died (case-fatality ratio). About a third of the world population was infected, and 3% to 6% of the entire global population of over 1800 million[51] died.[2]

  This is how the same paragraph reads now:

  It is estimated that one third of the global population was infected,[2] and the World Health Organization estimates that 2–3% of those who were infected died (case-fatality ratio).

  That’s quite a big change in a pretty short time.

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  What’s going on? Why is the CFR suddenly being downgraded so dramatically?

  The WHO report they use as a source is not about the Spanish Flu, but simply mentions it in passing. It does indeed say 2-3% of those infected died, but gives no source for this, and also claims this represents 20-50 million people.

  The trouble with that is the higher range of this estimate (50 million as 2% of total cases) gives a figure of 2.5 billion total cases. Which is higher than the entire population of the world at the time!(1.8 billion).

  So something is clearly amiss.

  Worse still, the WHO is the only source we have found so far that claims a death toll of 20 million. Most sources, such as the CDC (and see here), broadly agree that between 50 million and 100 million people died of the Spanish Flu (although one recent study wildly differs, see below). In order for 50-100 million deaths to be 2-3% of total cases there would have had to be 2.5 billion – 5 billion cases.

  Obviously totally impossible.

  Clearly there is something wrong with that newly revised figure of 2-3%. The only way to make it work is to also dramatically revise downward the number of deaths. And indeed there’s evidence of editors trying to do that on Wiki with someone citing a December 2018 study which used a controversial “new methodology” to establish a mortality figure of just 17 million. Given that this number has previously been estimated for India alone, this is remarkable revisionism.

  Now, of course, there are debates about numbers of infections versus fatalities in every case study in epidemiology. It’s not an exact science. It’s fluid. Of course, estimates will vary and errors will be made and corrected. There’s more to be said about the inherent uncertainties in these cases, and we are currently talking to a respected virologist with the intention of covering the question further in future. Maybe the previous estimates of infection and fatality were too high. Maybe there is a rational case to be made for lowering them.

  But is that what we are seeing on Wiki?

  We all know Wikipedia is a micro-managed propaganda organ, so the fact its page on the Spanish Flu began a huge uptick of edits in December 2019, rising steadily until February 2020, and that the bulk of these edits seem concerned with – subtly and overtly – downgrading the severity of the 1918 pandemic has to be of interest.

  Why the sudden decision to vastly downgrade the estimated CFR for the 1918 pandemic and source to a rather obscure WHO article that doesn’t even focus on that issue? And, more importantly, why does this extreme downgrade still exist on the page even when editors are pointing out the impossibility of the figures?

  At least this new editorial policy by Wiki is well-timed for those looking to stoke fear, and unfortunate for those trying to bring reason to bear. It allows the media and others to cite the newly downgraded 2-3% CFR as evidence that COVID19 is as dangerous as, or more dangerous than, the Spanish Flu and will end up killing millions. That’s some nice clickbait right there.

  Is it just human confusion? Maybe.

  There is a report by a virologist, and cited by the CDC, that confirms the heretofore commonly accepted 500 million cases and 50-100 million deaths and adds this is a CFR of ‘over2.5%’. Which of course it is. It’s a CFR of 10-20%, as he would be the first to recognise. And 10-20% is over 2.5%.

  Maybe his slightly ambiguous wording has led people astray? Maybe people consulting his work, as many do, including the Wiki editors, have taken ‘over 2.5%’ to mean just over, or even to mean exactly2.5%? Maybe that’s all this is.

  Maybe.

  But at any rate, the error, whatever it is, wherever it came from, isn’t ours. We didn’t make up the 10-20% CFR of Spanish Flu. It was the standard assessment until very, very recently. It still exists, though somewhat hidden now by ambiguous wording and confusion.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 03/10/2020 – 21:25

• "The Math Is Now Clear" – Super Tuesday 2 Primaries Dominated By Biden
  “The Math Is Now Clear” – Super Tuesday 2 Primaries Dominated By Biden

  Update (21115ET): It appears it’s all over bar the crying for Bernie Sanders as Joe Biden sweeps the early states on Super Tuesday 2. The former vice-president has dominated the socialist in Mississippi, Missouri, and now Michigan:

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  Results

  • Michigan (125 delegates): Winner: Biden.

  • Missouri (68 delegates): Winner: Biden.

  • Mississippi (36 delegates): Winner: Biden.

  Notably, despite all the snowflakery, turnout among younger voters, according to exit polls, was down in Missouri and Mississippi from four years ago.

  As 538’s Nate Silver noted, the polling swing toward Biden is probably the fastest in the history of the primaries.

  We have him gaining 36.2 points in national polls over the past 14 days. The previous record is John Kerry, who gained 32.3 points from 1/21 to 2/24/04 in our retrospective national average.

  On the question of electability, CNN exit polls showed that 80% of voters thought Biden was the candidate that could beat Donald Trump, versus 17% for Sanders.

  The math is now clear. Joe Biden is going to be the Democratic nominee for President and @prioritiesUSA is going to do everything we can to help him defeat Donald Trump in November. I hope others will join us in the fight.

  — Guy Cecil (@guycecil) March 11, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The Trump campaign has issued a statement on tonight, via Brad Parscale:

  “It has never mattered who the Democrat nominee turns out to be, and now that there are only two options left, it is clear that they are two sides of the same coin. The Democrat candidate for president will be running on a big government socialist agenda regardless of the name on the ballot. It is also clear that the Democrat establishment has rallied around the confused Joe Biden in an effort to deny the nomination to Bernie Sanders. Either way, President Trump is on an unstoppable drive toward re-election.”

  *  *  *

  Six states are holding primaries today – with Michigan awarding the most delegates, followed by Washington State, Missouri, Mississippi, Idaho and North Dakota. Results are expected to begin rolling in around 8 p.m. Eastern time.

  • Michigan allocates 125 pledged delegates to the convention, making up 3.5% of the total allocated throughout the process. Polls close in most of the state of 8 p.m. ET. In four of Michigan’s Upper Peninsula counties located in the Central Time Zone, polls just closed at 8 p.m. Central and 9 p.m. ET.

  • Mississippi allocates 36 pledged delegates to the convention. Polls closed at 7 p.m. local time and 8 p.m. ET.

  • North Dakota allocates 14 pledged delegates to the convention. Polls in the state’s Firehouse Caucuses closed at 7 p.m. Central time and 8 p.m. ET.

  • Missouri allocates 68 pledged delegates to the convention. Polls closed at 7 p.m. local time and 8 p.m. ET.

  • Idaho allocates 20 pledged delegates to the convention. Polls close at 8 p.m. local time, 10 p.m. ET.

  • Washington, which allocates 89 pledged delegates to the convention, conducts its elections entirely by mail. Voters must either mail in a ballot postmarked by election day or drop off their ballot in person in their county elections office no later than 8 p.m. local time on the day of the election.

  Former VP Joe Biden has 664 delegates under his belt going into tonight’s voting, while Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) trails with 573. After Sanders’ lost an early delegate lead on Super Tuesday, the Vermont democratic socialist needs a big win in Michigan to put him back in the game with its 125 delegates. If that doesn’t happen, it’s curtains for Bernie.

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  As the NY Post notes, Sanders won Michigan in 2016 in a stunning victory over Hillary Clinton by 18,000 votes. That said, “there are doubts Sanders can recreate that victory, with speculation rampant that Michigan this time could sound the death knell for his campaign.“

  The reality of the situation is not lost on PredictIt betters, who have Biden sharply in the lead as the likely Democratic nominee.

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  Stay tuned for results as they roll in…

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 03/10/2020 – 21:16

• "That Would Stink!" – IOC, Japan Face Billions In Losses As Olympic Cancellation Concerns Go Global
  “That Would Stink!” – IOC, Japan Face Billions In Losses As Olympic Cancellation Concerns Go Global

  Several weeks after Japan started canceling sport and cultural events amid the broadening of the Covid-19 outbreak, Japanese Olympic organizers discussed on Tuesday the possibility the Games could be postponed.

  Haruyuki Takahashi, one of the Tokyo 2020 organizing committee’s executive board members, said the Games could be delayed for one or two years. Takahashi said canceling the Games would have significant financial ramifications. 

  “I don’t think the Games could be canceled. It’d be a delay,” Takahashi told The Wall Street Journal. “The International Olympic Committee (IOC) would be in trouble if there’s a cancellation. American TV rights alone provide them with a huge amount.”

  Kazuhiro Tateda, an infectious disease expert of the Japanese government, said the fast-spreading virus could be sticking around a lot longer than many have anticipated, despite the upcoming warmer season. 

  “Unlike the flu that disappears with warmer weather, the response to the new coronavirus, I think, will have to continue for half a year or a year,” Tateda told NHK on Tuesday.

  For their part, the International Olympic Committee and local organizers say the games are on, but the clock is ticking…

  “From what we know from numerous other mass-gathering events including sporting events, it is very easy to spread diseases worldwide from such events – from meningitis to Zika,” Dr. Ali Khan. an epidemiologist and dean of the College of Public Health at the University of Nebraska, told the AP.

  “Besides welcoming athletes and spectators with their tiny microbes, there is and may be ongoing disease in Japan.”

  To safeguard against any unexpected events, such as a continuation of the virus crisis that could extend into the July period when the Games start, the IOC can postpone the two-week event and float expenses through 2022. The IOC has, in the past, bought an insurance policy on the Games that will help cover financial losses associated with a delay or cancellation. 

  The IOC’s annual reports show it paid almost $14.4 million in an insurance premium to protect against canceling the 2016 Rio Olympics and $12.8 million for a policy to cover the 2018 Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea.

  But, it is unclear if such a policy is in place for Tokyo as when IOC President Thomas Bach was asked last week after an executive board meeting if the insurance premium has risen to as much as $20 million for a Tokyo policy, he replied: “I don’t know, it wasn’t discussed at this EB.”

  Although it would be shocking if they had not.

  Not only would a cancellation of the Games would cause major disruptions to the international sporting calendar, it would have severe financial implications not just for the IOC, but for Japan and the world.

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  As AP reports, Tokyo is officially spending $12.6 billion to organize the Olympics, although a national government audit office says it’s at least twice that much. Andrew Zimbalist, a professor of economics at Smith College in Massachusetts, said construction cost for one venue in Japan was $1.43 billion. The local organizing committee budget of $5.6 billion is private money, with the rest coming from Japanese taxpayers. About $1 billion in the local operating budget is to come from ticket sales, which would be lost if the games go ahead without fans in empty stadiums.

  “Some combination of the IOC, the broadcasters, and the insurers will lose big,” Victor Matheson, a sports economist at the College of the Holy Cross in Worcester, Massachusetts, said.

  “That loss is coming out of someone’s pocket depending on how all of the contracts are written.”

  Matheson adds that athletes are the most vulnerable from the financial shock:

  “For athletes, their career length isn’t long and in many sports success in the Olympics is your one shot at a financial return.”

  Aside from government officials coffers, athletes, coaches and sports officials, local organizers, and fans will be gutted too…

  “I’ve heard things about possibly the Olympics being canceled, and I think that would stink,” J’den Cox, a two-time world champion wrestler and an Olympic bronze medalist, told AP News.

   “It would probably break everybody’s heart if that were to happen.”

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  The AP notes that 73% of IOC’s income is derived from selling broadcast rights. NBC made up at least half of those broadcast payments in the last Olympic cycle. Another 18% of the IOC income is from selling sponsorships. NBC parent company Comcast said its contract with the IOC and insurance would allow it to escape losses if cancelation was seen. However, NBC would lose hundreds of million dollars in ad money.

  While there’s billions of dollars on the line, if it is with the IOC, Japan, broadcasters, sponsors, etc., there’s a strong possibility that at this point in time, if the virus continues to spread across the world, the Games would likely be delayed.

  For now, an Irish bookmaker is showing odds leaning slightly toward the Olympics not going forward. Odds are 4-6 it will not open on July 24 in Tokyo, and even that it will.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 03/10/2020 – 21:05

• And Then Came The Lawsuits: Pandemic In A Litigious Society
  And Then Came The Lawsuits: Pandemic In A Litigious Society

  Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

  This is the upside of hyper-litigiousness: prevention is prioritized as the most effective means of limiting future liability.

  Never mind prevention or vaccines; the big question is “who can we sue after this blows over to rake in millions of dollars?” Yes, this is pathetic, tragic, perverse and evil, but that’s reality in a hyper-litigious society like the U.S.

  Many people are struck by the apparent over-reaction of Corporate America to the Covid-19 threat, but this is the only rational response in a hyper-litigious society: the number one priority in a hyper-litigious society is to limit liability. Everything–and yes, we mean everything–flows from this obsessive concern with limiting future liability.

  Imagine the lawsuit brought by an employee of Corporate America who could have worked from home but was ordered by her employer to come to the workplace, and who was subsequently infected by the virus.

  The corporation’s defense team would naturally claim there was no evidence the employee caught the virus at work, but alas, one employee in the building was confirmed as a carrier of Covid-19, so that defense won’t work: the employee could have been infected by this other employee in the workplace, and lacking any solid evidence to the contrary, it’s clear the company failed to protect its employees from exposure to the virus by forcing employees to work in a virus-infected work place when they could have worked from home.

  By forcing an employee who could have worked from home to come to the office, the company is liable for damages. Multiply this case by thousands, and it’s easy to see why Corporate America has proactively moved so aggressively to a “work at home” policy and why corporate legal, HR and risk management teams are quickly issuing press releases and internal memos stressing all the measures the company is taking to lower the risks for employees and customers.

  Future court cases will likely come down to basic tests, such as: did the corporation act promptly, prudently and in good faith? Did it pursue its preventative policies rigorously, or in a piecemeal, slapdash manner? Did the management quickly correct flawed execution, or did management fail to provide the necessary oversight, accountability and problem-solving to address the flawed execution of preventative measures? Did the company follow accepted industry protocols and standards? Did it make every available practical effort to reduce the risks to employees and customers?

  If the measures are practical, coherent and applied consistently, this is a good thing. In prevention against a highly contagious virus, half-measures and window-dressing will not be effective: the execution of preventative measures must be 100%.

  Thus it would be prudent to instruct all employees to wear masks, wash their hands often, conduct digital-online meetings, limit company gatherings, hire crews to regularly disinfect company facilities, etc. Companies that fail to impose and promote preventative policies and execute preventative measures uniformly will be opening Pandora’s Door to lawsuits that could stretch on for years.

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  This is the upside of hyper-litigiousness: prevention is prioritized as the most effective means of limiting future liability. The downside–extortionist lawsuits seeking quick out-of-court settlements as the cheaper way out of costly litigation–is an ugly reality of conducting commerce in America. But the upside–practical preventative policies that impose “social distancing” and high standards of personal hygiene and the regular disinfecting of common areas–could have a profound impact in lowering the spread of the virus.

  *  *  *

  My recent books:

  Audiobook edition now available:
  Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World ($13)
  (Kindle $6.95, print $11.95) Read the first section for free (PDF).

  Pathfinding our Destiny: Preventing the Final Fall of Our Democratic Republic ($6.95 (Kindle), $12 (print), $13.08 ( audiobook): Read the first section for free (PDF).

  The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake $1.29 (Kindle), $8.95 (print); read the first chapters for free (PDF)

  Money and Work Unchained $6.95 (Kindle), $15 (print) Read the first section for free (PDF).

  *  *  *

  If you found value in this content, please join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 03/10/2020 – 20:45

• Cheap Flights Bonanza & Near Empty Airlines – Chicago To San Francisco: $137
  Cheap Flights Bonanza & Near Empty Airlines – Chicago To San Francisco: $137

  Amid the broader travel, hotel, aviation, tourism and cruise line carnage, airlines are canceling domestic flights left and right while waiving cancellation fees. 

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  And as expected, ticket prices are plummeting given that as the International Air Transport Association has predicted demand for global air travel looks to decline in a first since 2009 over coronavirus fears, resulting in a potential loss of up to $113 billion in 2020 in revenue for the industry. Covid-19 is slashing airfares worldwide, as this brief list of examples suggests, culled from around the web: 

  • New York to Miami: $51
  • Chicago to San Francisco: $137
  • New York to London: under $500 
  • New York-Paris Return: $285
  • In China: Shanghai to Chongqing for merely 29 yuan, or $4.10

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  Flyers have over the past week posted images of cabins nearly completely devoid of passengers. 

  Reporting Live from Oslo: @RashaAlAqeedi and I have the entire flight to NYC to ourselves. #CoronavirusOutbreak pic.twitter.com/cfxsD8JEwb

  — Eliza (@elizableu) March 7, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The International Air Transport Association (IATA) predicts a devastating year for the industry:

  IATA now sees 2020 global revenue losses for the passenger business of between $63 billion (in a scenario where COVID-19 is contained in current markets with over 100 cases as of 2 March) and $113 billion (in a scenario with a broader spreading of COVID-19). 

  This after airline share prices have already fallen nearly 25% since the start of the outbreak.

  A review of the price plunge in Forbes says the following:

  The coronavirus is slashing airfares worldwide. Currently there are some great deals to be had for flying between the U.S and Europe. Tap in New York Paris return for example on Google Flights and it turns up startlingly low prices with leading airlines, American, United, Delta and Air France, for as low as $284 round trip, flying on April 5 to April 15. Go direct to Delta’s website and the picture is the same, with the lowest return fare for the same dates of $285.

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  Currently the deals site Airfarewatchdog.com reveals price drops of $26-$49 for a number of popular US city to city trips.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 03/10/2020 – 20:25

• Only 4 Shale Drillers Are Still Profitable At $31 Oil
  Only 4 Shale Drillers Are Still Profitable At $31 Oil

  Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

  Most shale oil wells drilled in the United States are unprofitable at current oil prices, Rystad Energy has warned. The Norwegian consultancy said, as quoted by Bloomberg, that drilling new wells would be loss-making for more than 100 companies.

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  Just four shale drillers – Exxon, Chevron, Occidental, and Crownquest – can drill new wells at a profit at $31 per barrel of West Texas Intermediate.

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  The problem is the nature of shale oil wells: while quick to start production and expand it, they are also quick to run out of oil, so drillers need to keep drilling new ones to maintain production, which is what U.S. shale patch players have been doing for years.

  However, this has affected investor returns, Bloomberg notes, and now it is affecting spending plans.

  “Companies should not be burning capital to be keeping the production base at an unsustainable level,” Tom Loughrey from shale oil data company Friezo Loughrey Oil Well Partners LLC told Bloomberg.

  “This is swing production — and that means you’re going to have to swing down.”

  The situation is more positive for drilled but uncompleted wells, according to Rystad. The consultancy said yesterday that as much as 80 percent of DUCs in the U.S. shale patch have a breakeven price of less than $25 per barrel of WTI. Yet this is dangerously close to current prices.

  “If nobody blinks in this supply war, prices may have to go this low in order to properly reduce production and get supply-demand back in balance,” Rystad’s head of shale research, Artem Abramov, said in the news release.

  “This could turn out to be one of the greatest shocks ever faced by the oil industry, as coronavirus containment measures will add to the headache of producers fighting for market share. And OPEC has clearly stated that it won’t be coming to the rescue in the second quarter of 2020,” he also said. 

  “Even the best operators will have to reduce activity, it’s almost impossible to be fully cash flow neutral this year with this price decline” he concluded.

  Even before this, America’s shale producers already had a profitability problem. It just got a lot worse.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 03/10/2020 – 20:05

• Coachella Postponed Due To Coronavirus, Organizers Offer Refunds
  Coachella Postponed Due To Coronavirus, Organizers Offer Refunds

  The Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival in Indio, California was postponed on Tuesday afternoon as global cases of COVID-19 top 118,000. Organizers moved the April 10-12 and April 17-19 dates to October 9-11 and 16-18 on the hopes that the coronavirus scourge will be behind us by then.

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  “At the direction of the County of Riverside and local health authorities, we must sadly confirm the rescheduling of Coachella and Stagecoach due to COVID-19 concerns,” the organizers said in a statement. “All purchases for the April dates will be honored for the rescheduled October dates. Purchasers will be notified by Friday, March 13 on how to obtain a refund if they are unable to attend.”

  The cancellation comes after over 18,000 people signed a Change.org petition calling for the event’s cancellation in order to “protect ourselves and California residents by do the right thing before it’s too late.”

  Headliners include Rage Against The Machine, Frank Ocean and Travis Scott, who are reportedly all on board for the new date, according to TMZ. 

  Maybe Elon will fire up the Berlin Gigafactory cave in the meantime?

  With an epic sound system & woofers the size of a car

  — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 10, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Looks like attendees will just have to wait for their annual dose of herpies.

  At present there are 175 documented cases in California and 2 deaths according to the New York Times. 

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  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 03/10/2020 – 19:45

• Bank Of Japan Buys Record Amount Of ETFs, Admits 'Paper Losses', Plans Program Expansion
  Bank Of Japan Buys Record Amount Of ETFs, Admits ‘Paper Losses’, Plans Program Expansion

  Having blown over two trillion yen since October in purchasing stocks (ETFs) in the open market to “support Japan’s economy,” markets are rife with speculation the Band of Japan (BoJ) could pledge next week to buy ETFs at a faster pace than the current commitment to do so by roughly 6 trillion yen ($58.12 billion) per year.

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  Following pressure from Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe,

  “Markets are making nervous movements amid uncertainty over the global economic outlook. Based on agreements made among G7 and G20 nations, the government will work closely with the BOJ and authorities of other countries to respond appropriately,” Abe said in a meeting with ruling party executives on Tuesday.

  Reuters  reports that such a step is among options the central bank may consider if it approaches the ceiling as a result of aggressive purchases, according to sources familiar with the BOJ’s thinking.

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  In a somewhat surprising moment of transparency for the Japanese central bank, BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told parliament the BoJ had bought a cumulative 2.04 trillion yen worth of ETFs since October last year.

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  Kuroda also revealed the BoJ’s own estimate showed its holdings of ETFs may incur paper losses once Tokyo’s Nikkei stock average falls below 19,000 – 19,500. The Nikkei stood around 19,665 on Tuesday after briefly slipping below 19,000 in morning trade.

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  In accordance with Abe’s wishes, since BoJ issued an emergency statement on March 2 pledging to offer ample liquidity via market operations and asset buying, Kuroda has been accelerating the pace of ETF buying.

  The BoJ bought 100.2 billion yen ($979 million) on Monday, matching a record pace of purchases made twice last week.

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  Eiji Maeda, the BOJ’s executive director, said the central bank was scrutinising daily price moves and taking appropriate action to stabilise markets.

  “We of course won’t hesitate to take additional measures if needed, depending on future market developments,” he said.

  So this clearly failed plan – of buying stocks directly in the market – has done nothing for the economy or the people’s wealth and is now actually destroying central bank capital…

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  But they believe they should just do more of it… and this is the same shit that is now being casually discussed in US banking circles.

  Einstein would be proud.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 03/10/2020 – 19:25

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• On International Women's Day, Topless French Protesters Blast "Patriarchal Pandemic"
  On International Women’s Day, Topless French Protesters Blast “Patriarchal Pandemic”

  While most coronavirus-related headlines bring disappointing news about new infections and deaths, every once and a while, we get a respite from the constant gloom and doom.

  On Monday, that brief reprieve came courtesy of Femen, the infamous international feminist group that has a very specific – and memorable – MO: Its members pose topless, often with their ‘message’ scrawled sloppily painted across their chests.

  As the coronavirus spreads across the world, it appears the ‘Women’s Rights’ campaigners – who have never set foot in Saudi Arabia, as far as we are aware, preferring to protest only in relatively open western countries – have tweaked their methods slightly: Armed with rubber gloves, purple smoke and exposed breasts, the ‘Femen’ went out to symbolically cleanse Paris streets of the “patriarchy virus”, before being shooed away by the police.

  The performance was timed to coincide with International Women’s Day on Sunday, which, as several twitter wits noted, happened to fall on the “shortest day of the year, the only day with 23 hours in it thanks to the beginning of Daylight Saving Time (which is now officially sexist).”

  Some 40 protesters wearing plastic coveralls, rubber gloves and protective glasses – but nothing on their chests bar slogans in accordance with their whole schtick – mobbed the Paris’ Place de la Concorde.

  Chanting feminist slogans, they fired purple smoke sticks and doused the ground using portable sprayers to wash away the patriarchy virus as they said they were more interested in fighting the “epidemic” of violence against women (for context: violent crimes against women across the world are at their lowest levels in history).

  But we’re glad to see the femen are finally doing their part to help inject a bit of levity into the unceasing torrent of misery.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 03/10/2020 – 02:45

• Migrant Crisis 2.0: Who's To Blame And What's To Be Done?
  Migrant Crisis 2.0: Who’s To Blame And What’s To Be Done?

  Authored by Tim Kirby via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

  It now looks like Europe may be moving towards Migrant Crisis 2.0 as footage from the Greek border is pouring in over the Mainstream Media. However the key player to pay attention to is Turkey, they may have started the new migration problem and thus they may be the ones who can end it.

  The original Migrant Crisis at the start of the Syrian Civil War in 2011 was portrayed as an organic consequence of events that happened on their own. The Mainstream Media pushed hard to sell the idea of the migrants as victims of either circumstance or Assad, who deserved to get everything they want from the wealthy West.

  However, this time around the narrative is surprisingly different (at least for the moment) as Migrant Crisis 2.0 is not really getting much media push, in fact the opposite appears to be happening, possibly due to the fact that Erdogan made it so bluntly clear that with his decision to allow migrants to leave Turkey is directly connected to his failures in Syria. If he doesn’t get a piece of Syria, then Europe will.

  For example Foreign Policy frames the move as “Turkey’s decision to allow migrants to cross into the European Union was intended to pressure EU leaders to come to Ankara’s aid against Bashar al-Assad”.

   The Independent went with the headline “Turkey says it has allowed more than 100,000 migrants and refugees across its border with Greece”.

  This is not the narrative of waves of poor victims coming to Europe, but instead the tale of the Turks using human beings as pawns of influence. Even the Hyper-Liberal Cultural Masochist den that is NPR positioned the event as an attempt for victims to “Leave Turkey For Europe, But This Time The Gate Is Closed” which is surprisingly soft. It is almost like NPR is hinting at some sort of logic like “well we should let them in but we can’t, I guess it’s bad, but whatever”.

  What a difference a decade and a resurgent Turkey make as this migrant narrative has completely shifted. Furthermore, it is important to note that according to RT, the footage of the poor migrants trying to find peace and happiness in Europe, while being attacked by Greek authorities comes from Turkish sources. Essentially, the Turks who were able to hold all these migrants perfectly fine for years (since a deal was struck with the EU in 2016) have now, all of a sudden, decided they can’t do it anymore, releasing them into the wild. This also by a stroke of luck happened at the exact moment when NATO denied help to Ankara in their fight for Idlib partially via proxies against Assad and his Russian pals.

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  Even with the best of intentions massive waves of migrants are unlikely to be loyal to Europe thus turning into a subconscious fifth-column of foreign interest.

  This is the point in an article where one might get the feeling that this is a hit piece against the Turks but it is far from it. The Turks are the ones making the moves now but they did not start the Syrian crisis, they just capitalized on it.

  Firstly, the Civil War in Syria was started by Washington. This mess was started by the Obama era with a massive demonization campaign of Assad all over the Mainstream Media.

  Secondly, it is the EU’s welfare state policies that send a message to the world that “if you sneak in, you are entitled to live like kings for free” that attracts the bottom of global society to immigrate to Europe. EU law/policies are really what created the Migrant Crisis, if they were to “man up” and have real borders and reasonable attitudes towards immigration (as well as dump the welfare state for immigrants) there would be zero problems.

  So to be clear the Turks are just taking advantage of conditions created by Europeans and if I were born a Turk and were in Erdogan’s place I would have done many of the same moves. We shouldn’t blame others for jumping on the opportunities that we ourselves create for them. Yes, Turkey is now fanning the flames but they never started the fire.

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  So what could or should the strategies be for the various players going forward in Migrant Crisis 2.0?

  Greece

  This country finds itself as the farpost of Europe in terms of a migrant invasion. The Greek economy is still in ruins and the nation has definitely not been a beneficiary of EU status. If the Greeks actually have any political will of their own to take action, then they unfortunately need to “go hard” on any attempts to violate their borders.

  Greece has nothing to lose but its Euro chains so they may as well militantly react to any attempts to violate their territory to send a message to Turkey that “this won’t work”. This may sound violent, but allowing enough migrants into your country to the point that it destabilizes, would lead to vastly more violence. A few unpleasant pieces of footage from Greece will make thousands of potential migrants think twice against storming a border unarmed with an army sitting on the other side of the barbed wire.

  If Greece did become like a real country and actually protect its borders it would be demonized by Brussels, but then again so what? What are they going to do, kick them out of the EU? If so then that would be a boon for the average Greek. If Greece does actually have sovereign control of itself and can take action then Brussels has no real means to punish them for said actions, and any punishments would only push Greece towards an independence that it needs anyways. Harsh border control of Greece is a win win for anyone except the most delusional EU enthusiasts in Athens.

  Turkey

  In many ways the Turks are doing the right things to restore their former glory. They have done a good job of convincing Central Asians that they are actually Turks via their massive trade and education network in those countries. As stated above the flood of Turks into Europe is an exploitable beachhead for Ankara, and if they were to have negotiated with the Russians for some eastern chunk of Syria, this could have become an ideological Sudetenland for Erdogan, who may start to feel the heat as home as the proud Turks are losing to the WWII era looking Syrian Arab Army.

  The Turks need to slow down and be patient. The West is slowly eroding, but until it hits the breaking point it will be an unstoppable barrier. Erdogan needs to stay cool and keep shoving as much of his fifth column of migrants into the EU as he can, and rally Europe’s migrant Muslims around himself even if they are non-Turks.

  Turkey is in the rough geopolitical position of having Europe to the west and Russia to the north which made the idea to push south against weak Syria very logical, until it essentially became part of Russia. They want to expand but they are surrounded by spheres of influence even to the East. Right now there is no wiggle room for the Ottomans so they need to patiently grow and maybe try to make some deals with the Russians to understand just what the spheres of influence could turn into in a world with a collapsing EU that we will probably see in our lifetimes. Today is not Turkey’s day, but a weak West will open up huge opportunities for Turkey, they just need to stay patient, stay in NATO and wait it out.

  Brussels

  The EU is the source of its own problems. The mentality of those in power in the Euro bureaucracy is culturally suicidal. If they would only turn on a tenth of their former zeal for European Civilization and control their borders while cutting out immigrant welfare, they could save the continent, but they won’t do that.

  Immigrating to Europe needs to become an impossibility so Europe an assimilate the people it has now and fine a future for itself. They need some sort of “Renaissance II: The Revenge of Europe” to take place, but the elite and intelligentsia fervently against any such move. The borders around Europe need to close but the powers that be are convinced the opposite is the correct policy. This is good for Ankara, Moscow and Beijing, but not so great for Europeans.

  Europe’s openness is on track to being essentially the same as Africa’s helplessness during the Colonial Period. If you cannot defend yourself you will get carved up, this is the reality of International Relations that the status quo in Brussels does not believe in.

  In Summary

  • The Turks did not create the conditions for the first or second Migrant Crisis

  • The Turks are exploiting these conditions for their benefit by artificially starting a new Migrant Crisis, which is opportunistic and not evil.

  • The Greeks have everything to gain by using any means necessary to send a message that they cannot be overrun by migrants.

  • The Turks want to grow but have their backs to the wall geopolitically and have started Migrant Crisis 2.0 due to their failure in Syria and NATO’s lack of will to support them.

  • All migration problems in Europe could be solved by having a strict external border and enacting pro in-group policies towards throughout the EU, while cutting all welfare for the migrant out-group.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 03/10/2020 – 02:00

• Meanwhile, American Troops Are Still Dying In Iraq
  Meanwhile, American Troops Are Still Dying In Iraq

  Pentagon officials announced Monday the deaths of two US service members in northern Iraq while engaged in anti-ISIS operations with Iraqi Security Forces.

  They’ve been identified as Marines operating south of Erbil, on a “mission to eliminate an ISIS terrorist stronghold in a mountainous area of north central Iraq,” according to a statement from Combined Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve.

  “On the evening of March 8, the U.S.-led Coalition launched additional forces to recover two U.S. service members from the southern Makhmur Mountains in Iraq, approximately 60 km south of Erbil,” Col. Myles B. Caggins III said.

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  “The purpose of the mission was to eliminate ISIS safe-havens in a cave complex in the Makhmur Mountains,” Caggins told Marine Corps Times. “The Makhmur Mountains are historically known to be an ISIS safe haven. However, there is no safe place for ISIS to hide,” he added.

  In the rugged and enemy-filled area it was apparently was difficult to recovered the fallen Marines’ bodies – Col. Caggins indicated it took six hours to do so.

  It further appears the Marines had been part of an elite special forces unit still at the forefront of cleaning out the last mountainous holdout pockets of ISIS terrorist cells in the region.

  “A source familiar with the operation told Marine Corps Times on background that the Americans were Marine Raiders partnering with Iraqi special forces in a large operation against ISIS,” the Marine Times report says.

  With the coronavirus pandemic spreading throughout the globe and dominating headlines, it seems many have forgotten about the some 30,000 American troops stationed in the broader Middle East – with thousands still in Iraq, and tragically still dying.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 03/10/2020 – 01:00

• Wikipedia: A Disinformation Operation?
  Wikipedia: A Disinformation Operation?

  Via Swiss Propaganda Research,

  Wikipedia is generally thought of as an open, transparent, and mostly reliable online encyclopedia. Yet upon closer inspection, this turns out not to be the case.

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  In fact, the English Wikipedia with its 9 billion worldwide page views per month is governed by just 500 active administrators, whose real identity in many cases remains unknown.

  Moreover, studies have shown that 80% of all Wikipedia content is written by just 1% of all Wikipedia editors, which again amounts to just a few hundred mostly unknown people.

  Obviously, such a non-transparent and hierarchical structure is susceptible to corruption and manipulation, the notorious “paid editors” hired by corporations being just one example.

  Indeed, already in 2007, researchers found that CIA and FBI employees were editing Wikipedia articles on controversial topics including the Iraq war and the Guantanamo military prison.

  Also in 2007, researchers found that one of the most active and influential English Wikipedia administrators, called “Slim Virgin”, was in fact a former British intelligence informer.

  More recently, another highly prolific Wikipedia editor going by the false name of “Philip Cross” turned out to be linked to UK intelligence as well as several mainstream media journalists.

  In Germany, one of the most aggressive Wikipedia editors was exposed, after a two-year legal battle, as a political operative formerly serving in the Israeli army as a foreign volunteer.

  Even in Switzerland, unidentified government employees were caught whitewashing Wikipedia entries about the Swiss secret service just prior to a public referendum about the agency.

  Many of these Wikipedia personae are editing articles almost all day and every day, indicating that they are either highly dedicated individuals, or in fact, operated by a group of people.

  In addition, articles edited by these personae cannot easily be revised, since the above-mentioned administrators can always revert changes or simply block disagreeing users altogether.

  The primary goal of these covert campaigns appears to be pushing Western and Israeli government positions while destroying the reputation of independent journalists and politicians.

  Articles most affected by this kind of manipulation include political, geopolitical and certain historical topics as well as biographies of non-conformist academics, journalists, and politicians.

  Perhaps unsurprisingly, Wikipedia founder Jimmy Wales, a friend of former British Prime Minister Tony Blair and a “Young Leader” of the Davos forum, has repeatedly defended these operations.

  Speaking of Davos, Wikimedia has itself amassed a fortune of more than $160 million, donated in large part not by lazy students, but by major US corporations and influential foundations.

  Moreover, US social media and video platforms are increasingly referring to Wikipedia to frame or combat “controversial” topics. The revelations discussed above may perhaps help explain why.

  Already NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden revealed how spooks manipulate online debates, and more recently, a senior Twitter executive turned out to be a British Army “psyops” officer.

  To add at least some degree of transparency, German researchers have developed a free web browser tool called WikiWho that lets readers color code just who edited what in Wikipedia.

  In many cases, the result looks as discomforting as one might expect.

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  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 03/10/2020 – 00:05

• Bill Gates Could Supply Your Next Coronavirus Test Kit
  Bill Gates Could Supply Your Next Coronavirus Test Kit

  The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation will soon begin distributing at-home testing kits for Seattle-area residents who suspect they have contracted Covid-19, according to a new report in the Seattle Times.

  Test kits could become available as soon as this week, via a lab funded by the foundation, could start testing hundreds per day with scaling availabilities in the weeks ahead. 

  “Although there’s a lot to be worked out, this has enormous potential to turn the tide of the epidemic,” Scott Dowell, who is in charge of the Covid-19 response effort by the foundation, told the Times.

  “One of the most important things from our perspective, having watched and worked on this in other parts of the world, is the identification of people who are positive for the virus, so they can be safely isolated and cared for, and the identification of their contacts, who can then be quarantined,” Dowell said.

  News of the test kits comes as confirmed cases in the US surge above 500 across 34 states. Washington state, specifically the Seattle Metropolitan Area, has been the hardest hit region in the country, with 16 deaths and 128 confirmed cases.

  The Gates Foundation has spent more than $20 million in the virus response effort and has committed at least $5 million for the Seattle area.

  Trevor Bedford, a computational biologist at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, warned last week that actual cases in Seattle could be around 600. Bedford said cases could soar to 12,000 to 30,000 by the end of the month if virus containment measures weren’t in place to slow down the transmission rate. 

  While the foundation’s urgency for developing a new test kit is timely, Gates was apart of The Event 201 scenario in October (months before Covid-19) that modeled a breakout of coronavirus across the world, killing 65 million people by month 18. 

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  With the Covid-19 breakout only just getting started on the continental US, expect this map to be much redder in the coming weeks. One can only hope the foundation can ramp up test kits, considering there’s a massive shortage at hospitals. 

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 03/09/2020 – 23:45

• Covid-19 & China's War On The Truth
  Covid-19 & China’s War On The Truth

  Authored by Giulio Meotti via The Gatestone Institute,

  “On current course, China is liable to do significant damage to the rest the world, by accident or intent,” wrote columnist Daniel Henninger in the Wall Street Journal on January 29.

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  “The Chinese Communist government increasingly poses an existential threat not just to its own 1.4 billion citizens but to the world at large”, wrote the noted historian Victor Davis Hanson on February 20.

  According to The Sunday Times,

  “Chinese laboratories identified a mystery virus as a highly infectious new pathogen by late December last year, but they were ordered to stop tests, destroy samples and suppress the news, a Chinese media outlet has revealed.

  “A regional health official in Wuhan, centre of the outbreak, demanded the destruction of the lab samples that established the cause of unexplained viral pneumonia on January 1. China did not acknowledge there was human-to-human transmission until more than three weeks later.

  “The detailed revelations by Caixin Global, a respected independent publication, provide the clearest evidence yet of the scale of the cover-up in the crucial early weeks when the opportunity was lost to control the outbreak.”

  In a speech on December 31, 2019, Xi Jinping was already triumphantly heralding a new year of “milestone significance in realising the first centenary goal”.

  “Censorship. It can have deadly consequences,” said US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on February 25.

  “Had China permitted its own and foreign journalists and medical personnel to speak and investigate freely, Chinese officials and other nations would have been far better prepared to address the challenge.”

  Unfortunately, the World Health Organization did the opposite, “praising” China for fighting the virus. Europe has also been busy appeasing China.

  In China, 780 million people – roughly half its population – are living under travel restrictions, and its president, Xi Jinping, is using the crisis to strengthen his control. Since 2013, he has continued to expand his immense authority to remain “president for life“, and is now seeking to take advantage of the coronavirus to tighten his control over the public even further, while silencing dissent.

  The consequences for Italy, which currently has far more infected persons than the rest of Europe combined, are described by Massimo Galli, the primary infectious disease specialist at Milan’s Sacco Hospital:

  “We are in full emergency. Yes, I am worried. The epidemic has to all intents and purposes conquered a part of Italy…. The situation is, frankly, an emergency from the point of view of the healthcare system. It is the equivalent of the tsunami in terms of the number of patients with major illnesses hospitalized all at once. This is just the tip of the iceberg. Even the best health organization in the world, and we are among them, risks not being able to withstand such an impact”.

  Meanwhile, China’s war on the truth marches on. The laboratory of the Shanghai Health Center was closed on January 12, one day after Professor Zhang Yongzhen’s team revealed the sequence of the coronavirus genome on open platforms. The Chinese regime prevented its scientists from finding ways to contain the epidemic. Their “crime”? Releasing the sequence to the world before the Chinese authorities did.

  “The epidemic has exposed this country completely in its corruption, bureaucracy, information control and censorship,” said Phillip Wu, a freelance writer in Beijing.

  And if you think the Chinese regime is meddling only in its own country, read a recent British report revealing how China is also curbing academic freedom in the UK.

  Zeng Yingchun and Zhen Yan, two nurses from Wuhan, the epicenter of the coronavirus, wrote a dramatic letter for the medical journal The Lancet, in which they asked the international scientific community for help:

  “The conditions and environment here in Wuhan are more difficult and extreme than we could ever have imagined. There is a severe shortage of protective equipment, such as N95 respirators, face shields, goggles, gowns, and gloves. The goggles are made of plastic that must be repeatedly cleaned and sterilised in the ward, thereby making them difficult to see through.”

  One day later, the nurses requested that their letter be withdrawn.

  The Chinese regime arrested Li Wenliang, the doctor who had issued the first admonition about the epidemic that soon killed him. On December 30 he had sent out a warning to his fellow medical workers, but police told him to stop “making false comments“. Many journalists told the truth, but were arrested or “vanished.” Social media in China talked about the virus weeks before the government did. Now the Chinese communist regime is announcing plans to publish a book in six languages about the outbreak; the book portrays President Xi as a “major power leader” with “care for the people”.

  At the Wuhan Institute of Virology, scientists carry out research at a laboratory that has the highest level of biological containment on the mainland, to study the world’s “most dangerous pathogens”. That the coronavirus might be related to Wuhan’s virus research laboratory is considered by some a “conspiracy theory,” but China’s refusal immediately to accept help from the US Centers for Disease Control understandably arouses suspicion. According to Paul Wolfowitz, former President of the World Bank and former US Deputy Secretary of Defense:

  “The fact that Wuhan is home to China’s advanced virus research laboratory known as the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which does some classified work for the Chinese military, has predictably generated speculation that the novel Corona virus might have somehow leaked out of that institute.”

  “Don’t buy China’s story: The coronavirus may have leaked from a lab”, wrote Steven Mosher, an expert on China, in The New York Post. We do not know the truth and we might never know it. The theory that the virus originated in a bio-research laboratory might indeed might turn out to be “fringe.” However, considering China’s level of secrecy and its dangerous campaign of censoring talk about the virus, is not doubt at least legitimate?

  So far as anyone can see, the Chinese communist regime has no regard for human life, freedom or dignity. The regime kills prisoners to harvest their organs for transplant, and performs “forced abortions” for “population control”. There is not only an epidemic of viruses but also of “infanticide.” According to research by Harry Wu, a 75-year-old Chinese human rights activist, “there are six to eight million inmates working” in China’s “re-education camps” today. Meanwhile, the Chinese regime, by suppressing the truth about its deadly coronavirus, has endangered not only its own people but also the international community.

  Italy’s fatal mistake was in trusting China’s regime. Instead of checking everyone — Chinese or Italian — returning from China since January, Italy kept its borders open. It is now dealing with tens of thousands of Italians under quarantine, 3,858 people infected and 148 deaths (as of March 6), the paralyzation of northern Italy’s economy, fear and hysteria in the population, with empty supermarkets in Milan, to mention just some effects of the coronavirus. Italy is now the world’s third-most-infected country after China and South Korea, with Iran not far behind.

  Professor Dali Yang, a political scientist at the University of Chicago, in an interview with the South China Morning Post newspaper, compared the coronavirus’ fallout to the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear power plant disaster in Ukraine. “It will be a crisis of Chernobyl proportions, especially because we will have to contend with the virus for years to come,” Yang said. Pharmaceutical and biotech companies around the world are working on a vaccine, which should at some point limit the damage. In 1979, there was an anthrax outbreak in Sverdlovsk, when deadly spores, leaked from a Soviet biological weapons facility, killed at least 64 people. Soviet and Russian authorities were able to cover up the incident until 1992. Nuclear, viral and biological disasters — followed by state campaign to keep these secrets — seem to be routine in dictatorships.

  Unfortunately, we in the West appear to be making the same unforgivable mistake with communist China as we did with the Soviet Union: trusting a paranoid and merciless dictatorship.

  “It is clear,” noted the Chinese dissident Ma Jian, “that the virus of Xi’s totalitarian rule threatens the health and freedoms not only of the Chinese people, but of all of us everywhere.”

  A WeChat post dedicated to the late Dr. Li Wenliang included quotes from the Soviet chemist Valery Legasov, who investigated the Chernobyl disaster, and wanted to speak the truth but was silenced, persecuted and forced to lie by the Soviet regime:

  “What is the cost of lies? It’s not that we’ll mistake them for the truth. The real danger is that if we hear enough lies, then we no longer recognize the truth …”

  Legasov took his own life. One day, we Westerners might also feel remorse for not having made the Chinese communist regime accountable for its cold-blooded crimes. Appeasing China, as we did the Soviet Union, is not just a failure; it is a lethal threat.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 03/09/2020 – 23:25

• Trial Of Alleged "Vault 7" CIA Leaker Ends In Hung Jury
  Trial Of Alleged “Vault 7” CIA Leaker Ends In Hung Jury

  The trial of a former CIA computer engineer accused of the largest leak of classified information in the spy agency’s history has ended with a hung jury.

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  On Monday, a federal jury in Manhattan could not agree on whether to convict 31-year-old Joshua Schulte on eight counts, including illegal gathering and transmission of national defense information, according to the New York Times. Schulte was convicted on two other counts; contempt of court and making false statements to the FBI.

  The motivation for the alleged theft, prosecutors said, was Mr. Schulte’s belief that C.I.A. management did not take his workplace complaints seriously. His feuding with co-workers led to his resignation in November 2016 to join Bloomberg L.P. as a software engineer.

  The partial verdict came after six days of chaotic deliberations. One juror was dismissed in the middle of the discussions because she violated the judge’s orders by researching the case, and the lawyers involved, on her own, and then shared that information with the jury. The judge declined to replace her with an alternate, leaving a panel of 11 people. –New York Times

  The jury reportedly complained about one juror who was not cooperating with the rest, causing concern over “her attitude.” One juror described the deliberations as a “horrible experience” – her eyes welling with tears as she finished talking to reporters.

  Schulte, who created malware for the U.S. Government to break into adversaries computers, was named as the prime suspect in the cyber-breach one week after WikiLeaks published the “Vault 7” series of classified files.

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  As we noted in 2018, Vault 7 – a series of 24 documents which were released beginning on March 7, 2017 – revealed that the CIA had a wide variety of tools to use against adversaries, including the ability to “spoof” its malware to appear as though it was created by a foreign intelligence agency, as well as the ability to take control of Samsung Smart TV’s and surveil a target using a “Fake Off” mode in which they appear to be powered down while eavesdropping.

  The CIA’s hand crafted hacking techniques pose a problem for the agency. Each technique it has created forms a “fingerprint” that can be used by forensic investigators to attribute multiple different attacks to the same entity.

  …

  The CIA’s Remote Devices Branch’s UMBRAGE group collects and maintains a substantial library of attack techniques ‘stolen’ from malware produced in other states including the Russian Federation.

  With UMBRAGE and related projects the CIA cannot only increase its total number of attack types but also misdirect attribution by leaving behind the “fingerprints” of the groups that the attack techniques were stolen from.

  UMBRAGE components cover keyloggers, password collection, webcam capture, data destruction, persistence, privilege escalation, stealth, anti-virus (PSP) avoidance and survey techniques. –WikiLeaks

  Vault 7 also revealed:

  • The Frankfurt consulate is a major CIA hacking base of operations.

  In addition to its operations in Langley, Virginia the CIA also uses the U.S. consulate in Frankfurt as a covert base for its hackers covering Europe, the Middle East and Africa.

  CIA hackers operating out of the Frankfurt consulate ( “Center for Cyber Intelligence Europe” or CCIE) are given diplomatic (“black”) passports and State Department cover. 

  • Instant messaging encryption is a joke.

  These techniques permit the CIA to bypass the encryption of WhatsApp, Signal, Telegram, Wiebo, Confide and Cloackman by hacking the “smart” phones that they run on and collecting audio and message traffic before encryption is applied.

  • The CIA laughs at Anti-Virus / Anti-Malware programs.

  CIA hackers developed successful attacks against most well known anti-virus programs. These are documented in AV defeats, Personal Security Products, Detecting and defeating PSPs and PSP/Debugger/RE Avoidance. For example, Comodo was defeated by CIA malware placing itself in the Window’s “Recycle Bin”. While Comodo 6.x has a “Gaping Hole of DOOM”.

  • iPads / iPhones / Android devices and Smart TV’s are all susceptible to hacks and malware. The agency’s “Dark Matter” project reveals that the CIA has been bugging “factory fresh” iPhones since at least 2008 through suppliers. Another, “Sonic Screwdriver” allows the CIA to execute code on a Mac laptop or desktop while it’s booting up.

  Schulte previously worked for the NSA before joining the CIA, then “left the intelligence community in 2016 and took a job in the private sector,” according to a statement reviewed in May of 2018 by The Washington Post.

  The verdict showed that the jury had doubts about the government’s most important evidence, which came from a C.I.A. server. Trial witnesses guided jurors through a complicated maze of forensic analysis that, according to prosecutors, showed Mr. Schulte’s work machine accessing an old backup file one evening in April 2016.

  He did so, prosecutors said, by reinstating his administrator-level access that the C.I.A. had removed after his workplace disputes. The file matched the documents posted by WikiLeaks nearly a year later, according to the government.

  The defense argued that the C.I.A. computer network had weak passwords and widely known security vulnerabilities, and that it was possible other C.I.A. employees or foreign adversaries had breached the system. –New York Times

  As the Times notes, Schulte’s legal troubles are far from over, as the government could retry the case. He also faces a separate trial after federal agents found over 10,000 images and videos of child pornography on electronic devices in his home.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 03/09/2020 – 23:05

• Strategic Remix For The Middle East
  Strategic Remix For The Middle East

  Authored by Alastair Crooke via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

  The End of an Era.

  When the first World War came to its end, intimations of an end to the European Era were already evident in symptoms: aching diplomatic joints, straitened perceptual political vision and the general financial health of the patient about to turn acute, as the constipated monetary policies of the Central Banks ushered in the Great Depression. But ‘life’ went on: European men and women wildly danced the Cancan throughout the 1920s; It was Cabaret, party time. No one wanted to acknowledge the omens of what lay afore them.

  Last month, an Israeli academic opined that the future shape of the Middle East lies in the hands of three ‘insider’ states: Iran, Turkey and Israel.

  It was an interesting observation. None are Arab; and it implied an incremental US disengagement, and a modest ‘king-maker’ role for Russia.

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  What makes this statement intriguing is the focus on just three states and the downplay of external intervention as the key ‘shaper’ of the future strategic ‘map’. Implicit here is that all three are flexing their military muscles. But diplomats and political analysts usually prefer to stay at the plane of politics and national interests. They dislike the fact that the outcome of military contestation, per se, can determine political outcomes, and thus validate or negate national interests. It is offensive to diplomacy. But often, it is just so. The region at this time is not really susceptible to a direct conceptual approach: So, the focus on the outcome of military contestation, trials of strength, and then on the other – quite different dynamic – of Covid-19 and its economic effects, makes more sense than traditional purely political calculus of interests.

  And, of course, none of us find it easy to mix into this ‘pudding’ of the three powers’ military trials of strength, the possible effects of some extraneous occurrence – such as a Coronavirus outbreak, about which all is guesswork. Nonetheless, let’s try …

  Let us consider Turkey: It’s leadership has tossed aside its mask. Ah yes, Turkey has been supporting (moderate?) Islamist opponents to President Assad? But, suddenly, the mask is gone — “Idlib is ours” (i.e. is Turkish). “Aleppo like Hatay, is Turkish too”. Neo-Ottomanism; pan-Turkicism. Yes, the Arab world has noticed, and Gulf States are quickly making good with Damascus against this neo-Ottomanism.

  And, just as the moment this explicitly revanchist project seemed at risk of failing – under direct military pressure from Syria and its allies – Ankara simply threw its own troops in support of the al-Qaida forces, and even called down Uyighur and Chechen Jihadist reinforcements from Jisr al-Shagoor (the worst of the worst, extremists). Let us then hear no more from certain western circles of those ‘moderate’ forces with which Turkey is linked.

  Some Turkish soldiers (34+), mixed in with these extremist forces, were killed, as they tried to exfiltrate from Saraqib, when it fell again to Syrian and allied forces. Turkish leaders went nuts with emotion and anger. The rhetoric of ‘betrayal’ went off the scale; and then, in defiance of their agreement with President Putin, they unleashed a barrage of ‘suicide’ attack drones on Syrian forces (and military installations) – and separately killed a fair number of Iranians and Hizbullah, by-the-by.

  What has this to do with the strategic future of the Middle East? Well this: Turkey’s vastly larger army got a bloody nose (well beyond the Turk’s 34+ dead after Saraqib), from the asymmetric warfare strategy turned on them. Let that sink in: NATO’s second largest standing army effectively was trounced by smaller, irregular (but experienced) forces.

  And worse, after 24 hours of Turkey beating its chest about the extraordinary success of its armed drones (launched during an unfortunate ceasefire called by Russia) that were to tip the balance of power in the Middle East, no less, Syrian air defences and (probably Russian) electronic warfare, fully neutralised the Turkish drone threat.

  Let’s add up: Turkey has been exposed as having been using Islamism (and Al-Qaida Jihadists) as mere cover for its true neo-Ottoman and Pan-Turkic revanchist ambitions. The mask has fallen. It cannot be replaced. Neither its army, nor its armed drones, have turned out to be the game-changers that the Turkish leadership imagined them to be. Turkey too, has alienated Europe by its refugee blackmail (didn’t Erdogan take into account the impact of ‘the virus’ on European migration sentiment?).

  Erdogan has infuriated the Russian military; and in an unprecedented joint warning, Iranian and Hizbullah militaries said that Turkish troops would become vulnerable, were Turkey to continue in this mode. This time, Turkey has ‘ticked off’ just about everyone.

  But that is not the end of it. The virus affects another calculus, too: Debt – especially sovereign debt – suddenly is being viewed in highly sceptical way, following the sudden global ‘supply-shock’. Turkey’s economy is in deep trouble – but unlike earlier episodes, when the Chinese helped the Turkish Lira stay afloat, they too have been unimpressed by Erdogan’s trying to protect and use (some 3,000) Uyighur jihadists as a handy Turkish tool. The troubles mount up … and there are signs that Erdogan’s domestic political support is fragmenting (even within his own ruling party).

  Putin saw the situation: Conflict between Russia and Turkey is only to the benefit of America. He smoothed Erdogan’s ruffled feathers, caressed his ego – and took ‘off the board’ the M4, the M5, and (ultimately) Idlib too. The 5 March “cease-fire” is a temporary agreement. It won’t last, but it puts the writing on the wall. Idlib is the pin that has popped the Turkish balloon. This represents a major regional strategic shift.

  So, let’s visit the other pole to the strategic military equation: Iran has amply demonstrated an effective military prowess – both in terms of missile, drone and electronic warfare technology, as well as by its adoption of a radically de-centralised, amorphous and ambiguous, offensive capability. It is not perfect: it is not intended for going head-to-head with the US or Israel; but it can impose asymmetric costs on any adversary, and spread them across the region.

  The Gulf States have come to this understanding; and so has Israel, which cannot face a multi-front war, any more than Iran can prevail in a head-to-head war with the US. (Though the US capability to mount the latter, probably no longer exists. The US can no longer credibly invade Iran in order to supress a concealed and prolonged missile assault on American and Israeli targets.) In short, Iran has acquired something of a military edge — enough to establish deterrence, at least.

  And after the military dynamics, we are brought to the geo-politics and economics of the Corona virus.

  The virus has brought an extraneous, sudden ‘shock’ to the real economy. The virus is not like seasonal ‘flu. It is much more infectious (the virus being in the throat, rather than lungs), and it propagates via cough and sneeze droplets that linger for many days on objects that others then touch. But unlike seasonal ‘flu, Covid-19 carriers may have the virus, but not have the disease (i.e. show no symptoms), which makes it hard to identify any chain of infection – or to take appropriate containment action. Medical experts, however, do not know the circumstances of Covid-19’s inception (presumed to be zoonotic, but lacking evidence for this); do not know its reproduction number; its fatality ratio; and do not know whether it is affected by seasons. It seems to have already mutated once, producing both a milder and a more lethal variant.

  In short, anyone saying how long this virus will last simply is guessing. (Spanish ‘flu – by way of illustration of the nature of viral ‘unknowns’ – began in late 1917, processed through three distinct phases in 1918; mutated, and became more lethal in August 1918; (with the peak lethality taking place in September – November); and began to wane in 1919. It infected one-third of the global population, and killed between 50–100 million persons in Europe, North America and Asia.

  So, in the face of such uncertainty, what can we say about the Middle East?

  Well, the first point is that this economic shock comes toward the end to a long-term, debt and credit cycle, with the Central Banks having ‘goosed’ asset values with liquidity injections, and near zero interest rates. And here is the point: really for some decades now, all western (and Chinese) policy has been geared to demand stimulation. All the so-called ‘tools’ were monetary, and intended to make people spend and consume more.

  But a sudden ‘supply-stop’ caused by a pandemic cannot be corrected by monetary or interest rate means. And factories dislocated, and supply lines cut, also implies ‘demand stop’, as merely being the obvious other side of the production ‘coin’ (as workers are laid off, or their pay is cut).

  Already, trade is stalling, tourism is extinct and markets are fluctuating giddily. The virus is even putting into question globalist supply chains and western monetary policy. When the US ‘Fed’ announced an emergency 0.5% rate cut – the first since 2008 – markets fell. Of course the talk will be now of fiscal measures. But even fiscal measures cannot open factories, closed through disease and quarantine. What fiscal measures can do is subsidise otherwise failing businesses, ad interim. But that would go directly against our laissez faire culture (and in the EU, its direct rules).

  How badly will the Middle East be affected? No one knows the timeline, or the final virulence of this virus. (Seasonal ‘flu has a 0.2% mortality rate of those infected; but the WHO is estimating 3.4% for Corona virus. The UK’s worst case scenario is half a million dead.) It is unlikely that regional healthcare can sustain the forecast 15-20% hospitalisation of those infected by Covid-19, who will require hospital treatment. Nor can Europe’s health system, either. Estimates (guesses really) for its peak is early summer.

  Then there are the economic consequences: Tourism is dead; global markets have been crashing; and everyone is concerned about the massive overhang of corporate and sovereign debt – were the ‘supply-stop’ to be prolonged. Of course, oil producers will be the most vulnerable – for which, read the Gulf States. WTI is already trading in the mid $40s. But also, those most integrated in the New York financial system may be vulnerable to financial turbulence and bankruptcies – for which read Israel and the Gulf States.

  It is unlikely that anyone will escape Corona’s effects, one way or another. Even if Covid-19 eases today, there is unlikely to be an economic snap-back. The effects will linger into the following two quarters. At the moment it is Iran that is feeling it most; but the twists and turns in the life of a virus can be capricious: Why is it that Italy has been so badly struck in Europe? No one knows (it seems it may have the more virulent ‘L’ mutation).

  So to the bottom line: Strategically, Turkey has lost its game of ‘chicken’ in Syria, and may be about to experience an economic implosion – to be mitigated only by its preparedness, or not – to kowtow to Moscow and Beijing’s demands. Iran will survive – the Shi’a have a long experience of hardship – and Iran is too important-to-fail, for either China or Russia. The Lebanese, Iraqi and Jordanian oligarchs and Zaim (sectarian leaderships) were on the ‘critical list’, even before the Corona economic effects hit them, anew. They cannot reform, and refuse to adapt. Discontent will get worse, and protests generated by the virus-effects will proliferate – just as discontent in South Korea and Japan over Covid-19 already has been directed towards their leaders.

  But the Gulf States, already politically undercut by the ‘new Sykes-Picot’ type humiliation on which Trump insists under his ‘deal of the century’ ultimatum – and caught between the rock of Washington’s Iran policy and the ‘hard place’ of the Iranian push-back – will suffer economically in ways for which neither its leaders, nor its stipendiary populations, are prepared.

  Oil in the mid $40s (WTI), and a paralysed tourist industry for as long as Covid-19 takes, represents a new ‘shock’ worse than the September Aramco vulnerability ‘shock’.

  The strategic map, it is a-shifting.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 03/09/2020 – 22:45

• Wuhan Students Get Homework Software Banned From App Store By Spamming It With One Star Ratings
  Wuhan Students Get Homework Software Banned From App Store By Spamming It With One Star Ratings

  In what is likely the most epic story to come out of China as a result of the coronavirus so far, locked down students in Wuhan have found a creative way to avoid doing their homework while schools are closed.

  While schools have been suspended, teachers have been using an app called DingTalk to assign their students online lessons and homework, despite the lockdown. 

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  After the app was introduced, however, students who were happy to be on lockdown beforehand grew annoyed with having to do work, according to the London Review of Books.

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  So they engineered their own solution and decided to take action. Students figured out eventually that if they had enough users spam the app with one star ratings, they could get it kicked off of the app store, which would then in turn prevent them from having to do homework. 

  As a result, “thousands of reviews” flooded into and DingTalk saw its app rating fall from 4.9 to 1.4 overnight. 

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  According to the report, “the app has had to beg for mercy” on social media, stating: ‘I’m only five years old myself, please don’t kill me.’

  Not much out of the country has given us hope since the coronavirus outbreak began, but this story should possibly give future generations optimism about young Chinese citizens’ eagerness to band together and overthrow authority. 

  And to the teachers, it’s already bad enough the kids are suffering through what is likely going to be one of the most impactful pandemics of modern times. Maybe you can cut them a break on the book reports for the time being.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 03/09/2020 – 22:25

• Caught On Video: Australian Women Brawl Over Roll Of Toilet Paper
  Caught On Video: Australian Women Brawl Over Roll Of Toilet Paper

  While footage of insane lines and empty shelves at big-box stores such as Costco have made headlines in recent weeks, things have turned violent in some parts of the world – such as this Australian grocery store, where a trio of women got into an altercation over a package of toilet paper.

  When your usual grocery shopping @woolworths turns into a toilet paper fight in the supermarket aisle. Yikes. #toiletpaperpanic for the #coronavirus has taken a whole new level. pic.twitter.com/aKJ283I20C

  — Adella Beaini (@adellabeaini) March 7, 2020

  It’s as if toilet paper factories are going to shut down and people will have to revert to whatever humans did before TP.

  YOOOOO they out here doing snatch and runs on toilet paper 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣💀💀💀💀 Australia has come to an end pic.twitter.com/OuqlTTgXSh

  — Sunday Ngor (@kidafrobeats) March 5, 2020

  Lmaoooooooo round 2 pic.twitter.com/eODrKPyY15

  — Bold_Westie (@_West_Sydney_) March 7, 2020

  A thought:

  Google bidets!

  — Mike Cernovich (@Cernovich) March 7, 2020

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  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 03/09/2020 – 22:05

• Prisons In Uproar As Italy Expands Lockdown, South Korea Reports Huge Drop In Case, Washington Confirms 4 More Deaths Tied To Nursing Home: Live Updates
  Prisons In Uproar As Italy Expands Lockdown, South Korea Reports Huge Drop In Case, Washington Confirms 4 More Deaths Tied To Nursing Home: Live Updates

  Summary:

  • First 2 Coronavirus deaths recorded in Germany
  • Washington State confirms 4 more deaths, 30+ more cases as nursing home finishes tests
  • South Korea reports 131 new cases for Monday, a sizable drop
  • 7 dead as prison riots spread across Italy
  • Italy reports 1,797 new cases, bringing total to 9,172 as deaths increase by 27% overnight, to 463
  • Santa Clara reports second coronavirus death
  • 3 more deaths confirmed in Washington State
  • LA reports first case of community spread
  • De Blasio says NYC quarantine “a possibility”
  • WHO’s Dr. Tedros says threat of pandemic has become “very real”
  • Confirmed cases near or pass 1,000 in France, Germany and Spain
  • US deaths hit 22
  • Canada reports first death in British Columbia
  • Germany state of Brandenburg has between 4k and 5k in home quarantine
  • Trump to meet with Wall Street CEOs Wednesday
  • South Korea imposes travel advisory, confirms another 96 cases; 3 new deaths (total: 54)
  • Hungary stops flights to and from Northern Italy
  • PM Johnsons says UK won’t close parliament
  • Trump to hold WH meeting on fiscal stimulus
  • Italian PM promises “massive shock therapy” to save economy from coronavirus
  • Amazon asks employees in NY, NJ to work from home
  • Deutsche Bank cancels 150-year-anniversary celebrations
  • Dozens of flights leave northern Italy despite quarantine, even as airlines cancel routes
  • Moody’s says US economy headed for recession
  • Cuomo confirms 142 new cases in New York State, bringing total confirmed in NYC to 19
  • NY has started making its own sanitizer
  • Columbia University cancels classes, Princeton moves lectures online
  • 78 new public health labs open across US Monday
  • Spain PM says he will have ’emergency plan’ to tackle outbreak
  • UK confirms another 45 cases
  • VP Pence will hold press conference at 5:30ET Monday
  • Amtrak shutters ‘Acela Corridor’
  • Korean construction worker contracted by US military tests positive
  • Total number of cases jumps above 9,000 while deaths hit 463
  • ‘Grand Princess’ docks in Oakland
  • Another cruise ship disaster might be shaping up in Fla.
  • Trump congratulates VP Pence via tweet
  • New cases in South Korea drop as Philippines case total doubles
  • EUCO President says conference call will be held to coordinate EU response
  • Germany and France finmins hold talks to discuss crisis
  • Missouri declares first “presumptive” positive Sunday night; father of patient breaks quarantine
  • Dutch infections climb to 321

  * * *

  Update (2145ET): Here’s some more grist for a market rally.

  Following what has been by all accounts a well-organized and properly orchestrated containment plan, South Korea reported another 35 cases early Tuesday morning in Seoul, raising the total cases confirmed on Monday to just 131 cases.

  That brings South Korea’s total to 7,513, according to the Korean CDC.

  * * *

  Update (2130ET): The Life Care Center of Kirkland, the nursing home in Washington State’s King County that has emerged as the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak in that state (how the virus arrived in the home is still unknown, officials say), has finally finished testing the rest of the three dozen or so patients who remain at the facility following a recent outbreak of novel coronavirus.

  By Monday, the number of residents remaining at the facility – which recently held as many as 120, and as many as 55 over the weekend –  residents remain at the post-acute care center, which had 120 residents as recently as Feb. 19. Of the 35 residents tested, 31 tested positive, 3 tested negative, and one case was inconclusive.

  Shortly after the facility, which is currently being aided by a state ‘strike team’ of 30 doctors and nurses, announced the testing results, state officials confirmed more deaths and positive tests.

  According to KIRO7, on Monday, Public Health – Seattle & King County – announced three new deaths and Overlake Medical Center announced one death, bringing Washington’s statewide total to 23. The four new deaths were all Life Care Center residents. The county also announced 33 new cases, bringing the King County total to 116.

  Roughly two dozen cases from the nursing home – including residents and staff – have already been confirmed, and more than 16 residents have died. All four of the new deaths in the county confirmed on Monday were said to be associated with the home.

  Family members of the facility’s residents are furious that its operators didn’t close the facility as soon as the first case was detected, and state officials, including the County executive of King County, have attacked the home’s Tennessee-based owner for being difficult to deal with.

  WaPo’s coronavirus tracker, one of the most up-to-date records of cases in the US, hasn’t yet factored in the numbers announced by Washington State officials.

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  * * *

  Update (2000ET): In what was undoubtedly Prime Minister Matteo Conte’s boldest moment since rising from relative obscurity to lead a coalition government forged between two ideologically-incompatible parties back in 2017, the Italian prime minister declared during a press conference from the Palazzo Chigi, the PM’s official residence, that the extreme quarantine measures leaked to the public just two days prior simply weren’t comprehensive enough to suppress the outbreak.

  Unfortunately, things have gone too far for that Conte said, and declared, as we described below, a China-style lockdown that requires everybody in the country to basically remain where they are – no traveling – and, for the elderly and high-risk especially, it calls for the cancellation of almost every conceivable activity except jobs that can’t be done from home, leaving people with little option but to hang out at home or in small groups (where risks of an outbreak are lower).

  Unused to such heavy-handed government, the Italian population has accepted the government’s yoke with surprising deference so far. Well, except for one notable group: prisoners.

  As we mentioned earlier, prison uprisings that began in Modena have spread throughout the northern lockdown zone. Since this morning, another inmate has been declared dead, bringing the total death toll from the riots to seven, while two guards were briefly captured at a prison in the town of Pavia on Sunday, but have since been released.

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  According to Reuters, inmates revolted in Milan’s San Vittore prison, taking to the roof and unfurling a banner demanding a general pardon. Moving further South, prisoners in the Tuscan city of Prato set fire to mattresses.

  Even further south, riots took root in Sicily and the southern city of Foggia, where a tank was reportedly dispatched to look for 50 escaped inmates (though, as one twitter wit joked, locals needn’t worry about the prisons thanks to the quarantine: they’ll be stuck inside anyway).

  🚨#BREAKING 🚨 #ITALY🚨

  The Italien Army has deployed a lot of tanks in the city of #Foggia as around 50 prisioners escaped from local jail. #COVID2019 #COVID2019italia pic.twitter.com/n2b3Pjkve1

  — ISCResearch (@ISCResearch) March 9, 2020

  In Sicily, inmates rebelled at Palermo’s Ucciardone prison, which houses several high-profile Mafia convicts. Fortunately were able to regain control of the situation according to officials.

  In Modena, officials blamed three of the deaths on ‘drug overdoses’ after prisoners raided a prison hospital and stole methadone and benzodiazepines.

  Experts have applauded Conte for taking such a bold step, but whether Italians obey the quarantine still remains to be seen. Hopefully, the images of the prisons in chaos instills a sense of duty in them, as they’re offered a glimpse of what chaos could like look if things really spin out of control.

  * * *

  Update (1640ET): Is Italy really trying to beat China at its own authoritarian game?

  In a stunning announcement late Monday evening, PM Giuseppe Conte revealed during an announcement from the Palazzo Chigi that he would be expanding Italy’s strict quarantine travel restrictions to the entirety of the country, Corriere Della Sera reports.

  The restrictions will last for two weeks, and during that time, movement will be restricted across Italy.

  • ITALY PM CONTE SAYS WILL NO LONGER BE “RED ZONE”, ALL OF ITALY WILL BE UNDER SAME CONDITION
  • ITALY PM CONTE SAYS MOVEMENT WILL BE RESTRICTED ALL OVER ITALY
  • CONTE SAYS ITALY WILL LIMIT PUBLIC ASSEMBLY THROUGHOUT COUNTRY
  • CONTE TO SIGN MEASURE TO EXTEND MEASURES THROUGH COUNTRY

  The shutdown of schools and universities across the country will be prolonged until April 3.

  The unprecedented nationwide quarantine comes as the Italy’s new cases soar by a record high 1,797 to 9,172 as the deaths increase by 27% overnight, or almost 100, to 463.

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  The right behavior now, Conte said, is for people to just stay home.

  Pretty soon, this map will be obsolete:

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  * * *

  Update (1550ET): Santa Clara County has reported its second coronvirus-linked death.

  The Fulton County, GA teacher diagnosed with coronavirus fell ill while teaching at a middle school on Friday and 911 was called. The teacher had “a lot of contact with students,” according to the district. It is not known how the teacher got the virus.https://t.co/vh8efKmR2u

  — Steve Lookner (@lookner) March 9, 2020

  According to KRON 4, the woman who passed away was in her 60s, and was in the hospital for several weeks before passing away. She was the first confirmed case of COVID-19 in the county who had not traveled internationally, or had contact with an already infected patient, which suggests it was a ‘community spread’ case.

  Overall, she was the third case in the county, and the second death. The two prior had a direct, easily traceable line of transmission. The patient died at El Camino Hospital.

  This comes after health officials in King County Washington reported another 3 days earlier, raising the total to 22, along with this death, which raises the US death toll to 23. All of them were residents of the Life Care nursing home in Kirkland.

  LA County, meanwhile, reported two new cases, including the County’s first case of community spread, while Mayor De Blasio said during an interview with CNN Monday that declaring a city-wide quarantine is a “possibility” as the total number of cases in NYC alone hits 16. The three new cases announced earlier by Cuomo on Monday involved two residents from Brooklyn, and one from Queens.

  Back in LA, one of the two new patients had a recent travel history to Japan. The close contacts of both individuals would be traced, LA Times reported. Officials said between 80 and 100 tests have already been run in a local lab.

  “It’s a possibility but I do think people are getting a little ahead of ourselves and we should be careful,” de Blasio said.

  He added the school closures also possible.

  * * *

  Update (1545ET): As we near the end of the US trading day, let’s review some important developments from the last few hours.

  Qatar has become the latest Gulf State to place restrictions on travel; the tiny kingdom said it would ban travelers from a list of 14 countries. Asian FIFA World Cup 2022 postponed several qualifiers. Saudi Arabia has temporarily suspended land and sea travel to and from Oman, France, Germany, Turkey and Spain on Monday for citizens and residents to help block the virus, a local media outlet reported, per Bloomberg.

  Al Jazeera reports that ‘bootleg’ booze has killed 27 people in Iran after rumors that drinking alcohol could help cure the virus led for a spike in demand for moonshine in the notoriously alcohol-intolerant Muslim nation. A spokesman for Jundishapur medical university in Ahvaz, the capital of Khuzestan, said 218 people had been hospitalised there after being poisoned. The poisonings were caused by “rumours that drinking alcohol can be effective in treating coronavirus,” they said. Saudi Arabia has also said it would impose a fine of up to 500,000 riyals ($133,000) on people who do not disclose their health-related information and travel details at entry points

  The CDC said earlier that the death toll in the US had climbed to 22, while the WHO pointed out that the US is “under testing.”

  WHO says mortality rate for COVID-19 is ~3.4%, consistent w/ US reporting of 565 cases & 22 deaths, BUT the US is also *under testing.*

  — Bree Newsome Bass (@BreeNewsome) March 9, 2020

  As of Monday morning, more than 560 people have been diagnosed with the new coronavirus in dozens of US states, while 22 deaths have been confirmed in the country in connection with the outbreak, with the deaths recorded in Florida, Cali and Florida.

  * * *

  Update (1445ET): Public health officials in Canada have confirmed the first death tied to SARS-COV-2, better known as the novel coronavirus, which causes the illness known as Covid-19.

  The man was living in a British Columbia nursing home. He passed away last night, said Dr. Bonnie Henry during a press conference roughly an hour ago.

  Doctor Henry, her voice shaking, just announced a patient passed away last night.

  Canada’s first death to #COVIDー19. pic.twitter.com/ITPHYuUTe2

  — Mike Gibbs🏳️‍🌈 (@Mikeggibbs) March 9, 2020

  Two other residents and an employee at the BC facility have also tested positive for the virus.

  * * *

  Update (1440ET): During NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio’s latest update on the coronavirus situation, he reportedly asked New Yorkers to ‘consider’ working from home, if they aren’t already doing so.

  Join us at @NYCEmergencyMgt headquarters in Brooklyn with an update on our city’s response to COVID-19. https://t.co/FHc5EcCiix

  — Mayor Bill de Blasio (@NYCMayor) March 9, 2020

  Around the same time, Amazon reportedly advised New York and New Jersey employees to work from home from March 10 until the end of the month if possible, WSJ reports.

  In other news, a US Marine who tested positive for the coronavirus in Virginia – one of the first two cases to be confirmed in the state – reportedly worked at the Defense Security Cooperation Agency, which is situated near the Pentagon.

  New York and New Jersey offices include employees in marketing, fashion, advertising, cloud computing, plus the company’s Audible division.

  * * *

  Update (1340ET): As the government boosts testing following the imposition of a sweeping quarantine impacting most of the Italian north, for the third day in a row, officials have pointed a more than 1,000-case jump in the total coronavirus infections, and a 25% increase in deaths.

  On Monday, officials reported 1,797 new cases, and 93 new deaths.

  • ITALY REPORTS 9,172 CORONAVIRUS CASES, 463 DEATHS AS OF MONDAY

  The new cases pushed the total global case number above 110,000. Earlier, Spanish authorities reported 2 new deaths as the Catalonian health department has confirmed “the death of a 97-year-old man and an 88-year-old woman,” bringing the total number of coronavirus-related deaths in Spain to 28.

  During its regular press briefing, the CDC announced that 78 labs across the country in all 50 states and Washington DC have been certified to test up to 75,000 people for the coronavirus, according to Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases.

  Wall Street execs will reportedly visit the White House on Wednesday to discuss the country’s response to the coronavirus and what can be done to save the economy, according to the Washington Post. Trump is supposed to meet with his top economic advisors, including Treasury Sec. Steven Mnuchin, on Monday afternoon with markets back near their lows of the day.

  * * *

  Update (1300ET): It looks like another troubling cruise-ship coronavirus disaster is shaping up in Florida, one of three states that has recorded fatalities related to the outbreak.

  According to CNN, two recently diagnosed cases in Florida are tied to a cruise that recently docked in Port Everglades. Broward County in Florida announced that two of the three presumptive positive cases of coronavirus in the county are related to people coming through Port Everglades. Port Everglades is among the most active ports in the US for cruise ships, cargo and petroleum products. However, the county wont’ say more than that: Were these individuals passengers on a cruise ship? How were they exposed.

  * * *

  Update (1240ET): During the WHO’s daily press update, Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said Monday that the global coronavirus outbreak, which is closing in on its 4,000th death, is beginning to look like a “real pandemic.”

  Dr. Tedros said the WHO is “encouraged” by Italy’s quarantine, and hopes that these methods will “prove effective” in the coming days. The rule of the game, he added, is “never give up.”

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  Of the four countries with the worst outbreaks, China is bringing its epidemic under control, and South Korea is now reporting a decline in cases, he said.

  Both countries have demonstrated that “it’s never too late” to turn back the virus tide. Every country with confirmed cases of the virus has an opportunity to follow in their footsteps, Dr. Tedros said, because so far, most countries are only seeing “clusters” of community transmission. As long as that’s the case, these clusters can be contained, he said.

  “For the moment, only a handful of countries have signs of sustained community transmission. Most countries still have sporadic Covid-19 cases or defined clusters,” he said.

  Watch the daily briefing here:

  LIVE: Daily media briefing on #COVID19 with @DrTedros #coronavirus https://t.co/cN3WfNcsyd

  — World Health Organization (WHO) (@WHO) March 9, 2020

  Gov Cuomo made a similar comment earlier:

  “This is not the ebola virus. This panic that you see is unwarranted. We have dealt with worse viruses,” Cuomo said.

  * * *

  Update (1200ET): South Korea showed once again that the pace of new infections has continued to slow on Monday, while also raising its travel advisory for northern and central Italy

  S. Korea raises travel advisory for northern, central Italy https://t.co/z4bJncNuBu

  — Yonhap News Agency (@YonhapNews) March 9, 2020

  This follows SK’s second case update for Sunday: 96 new cases, which were identified between midnight Sunday and 4 pm, have brought the nation’s total number of infections to 7,478, the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said, according to Yonhap. That follows 248 new cases detected earlier. About an hour ago, the Korean CDC confirmed 3 new deaths, bringing its total to 54.

  After recording its first coronavirus case last week, Hungary has stopped flights to and from northern Italy and cancelled its March 15 national day celebrations amid growing fears that the outbreak will spread, according to the FT.

  In the UK, a fourth coronavirus patient died on Monday. The patient was being treated at the Royal Wolverhampton Hospital and was in their 70s with underlying health conditions, UK health authorities confirmed. The person had contracted the virus in the UK and efforts are being made to trace their contacts.

  * * *

  Update (1140ET): Port Authority Executive Director Rick Cotton has been diagnosed with the coronavirus. Cotton, the executive director of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, the independent quasi-public government agency responsible for the port, apparently contracted the virus after visiting airports and other Port Authority facilities.

  He is at home under quarantine, NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo said.

  During what has become a daily (sometimes twice-daily) live press update, Cuomo confirmed that the number of cases in New York State has climbed to 142, with 16 new cases in Westchester, 7 new cases in NYC, 12 new cases in Nassau County, 2 new cases in Rockland County and 1 new case in Ulster County:

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  With 142 cases of the new coronavirus, New York has 6% of the cases in the nation, however, only 8 of those people are hospitalized currently.

  After reiterating that the panic and hysteria is far out of proportion to what’s actually happening, Cuomo said Monday morning that as the national run on Purell continues, the state will produce its own hand sanitzier, which it can accomplish at a cost of $6 a gallon to make the NYS hand sanitizer. 

  The product is being produced at the Great Meadow Correctional Facility in Washington County. Unfortunately for NYC residents, the hand sanitizer is not available to the general public; it’s being provided, for free, to school districts and municipalities.

  Cuomo added that the NYS hand-sanitizer has “a floral bouquet” – before adding that he was joking, though in all seriousness the governor said he did detect a “hint of citrus.”

  Speaking after Cuomo, NYS Health Commissioner Howard Zucker says the state, in consultation with the CDC, is considering a closure of the public schools in New Rochelle for a period of weeks. Jewish schools in the city, a locus for new coronavirus infections, are already closed. Zucker added that New York state’s public health labs can test “several hundred” coronavirus samples each day.

  In addition, Cuomo said the state has shut down nursing homes in the Westchester County city of New Rochelle to visitors. He urged other nursing homes to be cautious because “this is the vulnerable population.” Cuomo said he spoke with VP Pence on Monday about NY getting approval for automated testing.

  Cuomo gave the first gallon of NYS hand sanitizer to @J__Velasquez pic.twitter.com/R5QwtgdCDy

  — Jimmy Vielkind (@JimmyVielkind) March 9, 2020

  Outside the evacuees, at least 15 patients have recovered: Six in California, four in Nebraska, two in Illinois, one in Washington, one in Arizona and one in Wisconsin.

  Here’s an updated case map of the US, courtesy of NBC News:

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  * * *

  Update (1130ET): In a landmark moment for the coronavirus outbreak in Europe, German health officials have reported the first coronavirus-linked death on German soil, Bild reports.

  Moments later, the German health ministry confirmed that two patients have died on Germany soil.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  This comes after a German man died in Egypt yesterday.

  * * *

  Update (11:25ET): A statement delivered minutes ago by the CDC asked colleges and universities with students studying abroad to consider bringing them back to the US, and that upcoming study abroad programs should be cancelled.

  * * *

  Update (1120ET): Italian PM Giuseppe Conte promised earlier on Monday a “massive shock therapy” intended to revive the Italian economy during comments to La Repubblica.

  Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte promised ‘massive shock therapy’ to overcome the impact of the #coronavirus outbreak, after his government shut off much of the country’s industrial and business heartlands https://t.co/MjxzarFrJt pic.twitter.com/bUYP0bUHsA

  — Reuters (@Reuters) March 9, 2020

  Conte also urged Europe to embrace “strong” action to stop the outbreak. These sentiments were echoed by French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday, when he demanded that Europe come up with a “strong, massive and coordinated response”. During a euro zone finance ministers meeting next week, the bloc is expected to come up with a plan to revive to Continental economy and avoid a brutal downturn.

  * * *

  Update (1115ET): The German state of Brandenburg, which encircles Berlin, has reportedly between 4,000 to 5,000 locals in an at-home quarantine following a “presumptive” case was confirmed in the area. Dozens of cases have been confirmed in Berlin, but ‘community transmission’ in the region hasn’t been confirmed.

  Elsewhere in Germany, Deutsche Bank has reportedly cancelled festivities scheduled in Berlin on Saturday to celebrate the bank’s 150-year-anniversary.

  * * *

  Update (1058ET): If there was ever a moment that an aide needed to seize the president’s phone…this is it.

  So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!

  — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 9, 2020

  Trump has become one of those “it’s only the flu” people? Hasn’t somebody explained to him why this is a flawed argument?

  Coronavirus has 10x the mortality rate of flu and 3x the RO.

  With your attitude I’ll stay short, thanks.

  — Mark B. Spiegel (@markbspiegel) March 9, 2020

  He really doesn’t get that this is his Katrina Moment, does he? https://t.co/sAdp6CkeOv

  — Diogenes (@WallStCynic) March 9, 2020

  Hopefully, they can keep the US death toll below that of Hurricane Katrina, at least. More US classes, including Colombia University in New York, are cancelling classes for the rest of the semester, while Princeton, an Ivy League institution in New Jersey, is moving its lectures online.

  Meanwhile, Irish carrier Ryan Air has stopped more flights to and from Italian cities. Other carriers to drop some or all flights to and from Italy include Alitalia (the country’s flagship carrier, which is only flying domestic right now), Delta Air Lines has also cancelled some flights, has has British Airlines.

  However, despite these cancellations and the quarantine, there are still dozens of flights leaving northern Italy on Monday.

  Several airlines have cancelled their flights to and from northern Italy, but still there are quite a lot of flights operating to and from the 5 airports in Milan and Venice (MXP, LIN, BGY, VCE, TSF) pic.twitter.com/E8pqwB15zs

  — Flightradar24 (@flightradar24) March 9, 2020

  * * **

  Update (1045ET): President Trump, oil analyst, has checked back into the chat.

  While we suspect Trump is less-than-pleased with today’s equity-market selloff (hence the headline a few moments ago about a White House meeting to discuss economic stimulus plans), the president has proven time and time again that he doesn’t really understand the downside of falling oil prices (though the Fed very much does, thanks to Powell’s comments on HY credit).

  Which is why he didn’t hesitate to celebrate the drop in prices as a de facto ‘tax cut’ for Americans.

  Saudi Arabia and Russia are arguing over the price and flow of oil. That, and the Fake News, is the reason for the market drop!

  — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 9, 2020

  Good for the consumer, gasoline prices coming down!

  — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 9, 2020

  It’s good for the consumers: In other words, the federal government is telling them they should avoid traveling or even leaving the house. But if they decide to roll the dice, at least gasoline will be cheap, cheap, cheap!

  * * *

  Update (1027ET): Following President Trump’s return to the White House this afternoon, a meeting about options for ‘economic stimulus’ – which the administration has said could include more tax cuts – will be held with some of the administration’s top economic advisors.

  Economic stimulus meeting to held here at the @WhiteHouse after @POTUS returns this afternoon, according to officials.

  — Steve Herman (@W7VOA) March 9, 2020

  That headline couldn’t have come at a better time, having just followed this remark from Moody’s economist Mark Zandi, one of the loudest voices in the market place.

  Moody’s economist Mark Zandi: US economy now likely to lapse into recession in 2020

  — John Harwood (@JohnJHarwood) March 9, 2020

  If Trump is lacking for ideas, he could give the US economy research desk at 200 West a ring. They’ve already committed a few ideas to paper.

  In the US, equity markets have bounced off their lows.

  So much FAKE NEWS!

  — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 9, 2020

  Ahead of the meeting between Trump and his economic team, where Trump will be presented with a “full menu of economic options”, one source told CNBC’s Eamon Javers that oil-market intervention wouldn’t be a part of the plan.

  1. With markets in turmoil this morning, where are we on virus stimulus? I’ve spoken to two senior admin officials today who say the WH is working on various ideas. But it doesn’t seem to have gone much further than the brainstorming stage.

  — Eamon Javers (@EamonJavers) March 9, 2020

  2. A senior administration official tells me this morning virus ideas were kicked around at the WH over the weekend. But he cautions that there’s nothing on paper and it is still a long way off. “Under pressure, will they want to say they have a plan? Yes. Do they? Not really.”

  — Eamon Javers (@EamonJavers) March 9, 2020

  3. How about global oil markets in distress? I asked a senior administration official if US government will intervene in any way in oil markets. He said “I hope not” and that he has not heard of any such idea. He said WH believes global markets will straighten themselves out.

  — Eamon Javers (@EamonJavers) March 9, 2020

  4. The president has spent the morning tweeting insults and complaints at Obama/Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Chuck Schumer and the media. He believes his political enemies are trying to inflame the coronavirus story to make it look worse than it is.

  — Eamon Javers (@EamonJavers) March 9, 2020

  5. I’m told President Trump will be meeting with his economic team at the WH when he returns from his trip to Florida this afternoon. The team will present him with a “full menu” of economic options to respond to the virus.

  — Eamon Javers (@EamonJavers) March 9, 2020

  6. A senior administration official tells me the president is aware of the stock market sell off this morning. “All of this is discouraging,” the official says of the market today. “It’s a tough one and we’re going to work our way through it.”

  — Eamon Javers (@EamonJavers) March 9, 2020

  7. I asked a senior administration official if WH is contemplating any action on oil markets today: “I don’t know what to do,” the official said. “This is the Saudis vs the Russians. Obviously it’s a negative for our frackers. But consumers will like lower prices at the pump.“

  — Eamon Javers (@EamonJavers) March 9, 2020

  While it’s definitely a short-term negative for US shale, we’re sure President Trump won’t mind the de facto ‘tax cut’ for consumers.

  * * *

  Update (1015ET): Across the US, 77 public health labs have finished setting up their Covid-19 testing as of Monday morning. Seven more labs are in the middle of the ‘process of verification’, which involves the CDC.

  NEW: 77 public health labs have #COVID19 testing up as of this morning, according to @APHL.

  That includes 49 states and DC. 7 more are in the process of verification.

  — David Lim (@davidalim) March 9, 2020

  * * *

  Update (0950ET): While the world has been transfixed by the chaos in American equity markets as the first major circuit breaker is triggered, the coronavirus news just keeps coming:

  Five new cases have been confirmed in Scotland, bringing the Scottish total to 23, and the UK-wide total to 281. Spain has closed schools in the Basque town of Labastida for 14 days. Italy’s market watchdog Consob said in a statement on Monday that halting stock-market trading would generate long-term problems. However, a ban on short selling could be considered when shares’ movement exceed 10% and if other conditions are in place, as per European rules.

  CNN reported that the Trump Administration is considering ‘discouraging’ Americans from taking air travel.

  Three additional coronavirus cases were confirmed in New York City bringing the total to 16 confirmed cases, according to Mayor Bill de Blasio’s spokesperson Freddi Goldstein.

  NEW today from @NYCMayor and @DOEChancellor on @NYCSchools: all school trips abroad will be canceled, and this week, 85 nurses will be added to school buildings to ensure full coverage. https://t.co/gMF2cVHEr5

  — Miranda Barbot (@MirandaBarbot) March 8, 2020

  The three new cases raise the NYS total to 108. Above, Mayor de Blasio says 85 additional school nurses will be dispatched to help deal with the coronavirus-related demand.

  There’s not a single confirmed case of an Asian infected in NYC. Stop discriminating cause the virus definitely doesn’t. #racist #coronavirus pic.twitter.com/Wt1NPOuQdy

  — Celia Au (@ItsCeliaAu) March 4, 2020

  Finally, national UK health officials have confirmed another batch of cases, bringing the total to 319 from 273.

  Meanwhile, the WHO is holding its daily press conference:

  * * *

  Update (0915ET): As critics slam President Trump for not focusing on the virus, the commander-in-chief of the American armed forces tweeted another congratulatory message to VP Mike Pence.

  Great job being done by the @VP and the CoronaVirus Task Force. Thank you!

  — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 9, 2020

  Trump also insisted that the best decision he made was closing off travel from China early on as epidemiologist slam his administration for not stockpiling enough tests.

  The BEST decision made was the toughest of them all – which saved many lives. Our VERY early decision to stop travel to and from certain parts of the world!

  — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 9, 2020

  Unfortunately, it would have been better if the CDC had administered more than 2,000 tests as of eod Friday, but those unfortunately aren’t the circumstances on the ground. We look forward to hearing more from the administration tonight – perhaps some encouraging information about when the market can expect test kits to be made available to everyone who needs one – when VP Pence leads a press conference beginning at 5:30 pm ET.

  Over in China, officials in Wuhan announced Monday that they would be closing 11 of the 18 makeshift hospitals built during the outbreak.

  * * *

  Update (0845ET): Following UK PM Boris Johnson’s emergency meeting Monday morning with fellow government officials, the UK leadership has reportedly decided against closing Parliament over the outbreak, though access to visitors will be strictly limited.

  NEW: House of Commons Commission met this morning and has decided against closing Parliament over coronavirus fears.

  But there’s an expectation that access to Parliament will be restricted to visitors “within the next week.” Sources say they’ll be guided by Cobra meetings.

  — Sebastian Payne (@SebastianEPayne) March 9, 2020

  Overnight, the number of confirmed cases in Spain nearly doubled, going from 589 on March 8 to 999 on March 9. In response, the government has ordered all schools and universities in the country to close. With acute concentrations of cases in the capital, Madrid, as well as the country’s industrial hub in the Basque country, deaths have climbed to 26 across the country. In Madrid alone, confirmed cases increased by about 200 between Sunday and Monday, BBG reports.

  After the number of cases in the Philippines doubled to 20 on Monday, from now on well-wishers will not be allowed to touch Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte to protect him from the coronavirus, his security detail said. Duterte is 74, and thus technically a high-risk patient.

  In Iran officials have temporarily released 70,000 prisoners in a bid to contain coronavirus in the country.

  Iran’s Mizan news agency quoted judiciary chief Ebrahim Raisi as saying “it is necessary for the temporary release of prisoners to continue… so long as it does not create insecurity in society.”

  In the Netherlands, cases have climbed to 321, according to local media reports.

  * * *

  Update (0830ET):  As Boris Johnson holds an emergency meeting with senior government leaders in London, across the Channel, European Council President Charles Michel said Monday that Brussels would be hosting a conference call with all EU leaders.

  • PRES. OF EUCO MICHEL: FOLLOWING CONSULTATIONS, I WILL HOLD A EUCO MEMBERS CONFERENCE CALL SHORTLY ON COVID-19 TO COORDINATE EU EFFORTS. WE NEED TO COOPERATE IN ORDER TO PROTECT THE HEALTH OF OUR CITIZENS.

  Meanwhile, over in India, four new cases of the virus have been confirmed, including a 3-year-old child.

  In Spain, which is finally confronting the severity of its outbreak as the number of confirmed cases teeters right at the 1,000-case mark, and the president of neighboring Portugal has gone into quarantine, is preparing to unfurl an “emergency plan” of its own, according to socialist PM Pedro Sanchez.

  • SPAIN’S PM SÁNCHEZ: THE GOVT. PREPARES TO LAUNCH AN EMERGENCY PLAN TO DEAL WITH CORONAVIRUS AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

  * * *

  Update (0650ET): As case counts explode across Europe, it looks like Spain – conveniently, Europe’s fourth-largest economy – will be next to cross the 1,000-confirmed-case threshold.

  • SPANISH CORONAVIRUS CASES JUMP TO 999: HEALTH MINISTRY

  The health ministry has also just reported another 8 deaths, raising the total to 25.

  * * *

  Update (0620ET): As case totals climb above 1,000 in Europe’s two largest economies – France and Germany – while one-fifth to one-quarter of the Italian economy (Europe’s third-largest) goes offline, the finance ministers of France and Germany have reportedly been commiserating about their shared predicament this morning.

  FRENCH FINANCE MINISTER LE MAIRE SAYS SPOKE WITH GERMAN COUNTERPART AT LENGTH ON MONDAY TO COORDINATE RESPONSE TO CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK

  “We’re fucked”

  “Yep, we’re fucked”

  — Hawky (@TheRealHawky) March 9, 2020

  And that’s pretty much all that needs to be said about that.

  In other news, VP Pence will hold a briefing in the situation room at noon, followed by several other briefings throughout the day, culminating with a public press briefing at 5:30.

  * * *

  Since we checked in last on Sunday evening, hundreds of new cases have been confirmed in Europe and Asia, but the ambient level of global hysteria has seemingly escalated with the limit-down moves in seemingly every global market that isn’t nailed down.

  In the US, 537 cases have been identified since the first cases arrived in Washington State and California back in January, including the dozens of travel-related and ‘community spread’-related cases, along with the ~50 evacuees, according to the Washington Post.

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  An emblematic sign of the hysteria in the US, Amtrak has suspended its non-stop service between New York and Washington – suspending travel along the so-called “Acela corridor” for power commuters who routinely travel back and forth between NY, Washington, Philly, Boston and all the places in between.

  Late last night, the state of Missouri confirmed its first “presumptive positive,” a girl who lives at home with her parents, according to a local TV station.

  News reports claimed that the father of the student broke quarantine by attending a school dance with his other daughter, Fox News reported.

  A school attended by the patient’s sister has closed out of an “abundance of caution.”

  In the US, Dr. Anthony Fauci said yesterday that the US would have 400,000 more test kits available on Monday, and 4 million more by the end of the week. So get ready for an explosion in US cases.

  More tech firms and banks are telling all employees who can to work from home until further notice.

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  In the UK, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is planning to lead an emergency meeting of the government on the virus a day after cases doubled in the UK to 273, while deaths have held steady at 3 since Saturday. On Monday, two new cases have been confirmed in Wales (marking 6 all together), while a healthcare professional at University Hospital Southampton has also tested positive, raising the national total to 276, per the BBC.

  Over the weekend, we saw the first signs of optimism out of South Korea, as the mayor of Daegu, the epicenter of the South Korean outbreak, reported a sharp drop in newly confirmed cases, evidence that the outbreak is slowing (since the South Koreans have been matched only by the Hong Kongers and Singaporeans in efficiency of testing), he said. The slowdown in new SK cases gave Italy the opportunity to snatch the crown, becoming the undisputed new global epidemic leader outside China (though the outbreak in Iran is certainly much more severe, however, the regime has chosen to hide the extent of deaths and confirmed cases).

  CNN adds that a construction worker contracted by the US military in Korea has tested positive for the coronavirus, making this the eighth USFK-related patient. An hour ago, South Korea confirmed 96 more cases, bringing national total to 7,478, marking a sharp slowdown in new cases.

   

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  As the quarantine across the Italian north enters its first business week, the total number of cases in Italy has hit 7,375, with 366 deaths. The situation is getting so bad, that riots are breaking out in Italian prisons, with one leaving 6 dead.

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  Courtesy of the BBC

  As an editorial writer for the Washington Post explains, current estimates suggest that it takes about a week for the number of cases to double, though there’s considerable uncertainty around the exact number. According to this principle, for each death, there are 49 other infections in the community when the patient who died became infected.

  That means, one week later, as that patient is seeing symptoms first emerge, that number has doubled to 98. After two weeks, when the patient is seeing his symptoms intensify, the number of community cases is 196. During week three, as the patient is lying on his or her deathbed, the number of community infections will have climbed to 396.

  In Iran, the head of the country’s Crisis Management Agency, Esmaeel Najjar, has been confirmed infected with the virus. Najjar was discharged from the hospital and has been self-quarantining at home, according to Iran’s ISNA state-controlled news agency.

  Offering a stark contrast to the panic that is engulfing Europe, Iran and the US, in China, Shanghai Disney has started “phased reopening” of some shopping and dining destinations have reopened, though the main park – Shanghai Disneyland – remains closed. Meanwhile, the first case of coronavirus has been confirmed among staff at Disneyland Paris, according to Le Parisien. The patient, who had been off sick since symptoms emerged days ago, is quarantining at home.

  Germany and France are each seeing the number of confirmed cases break above 1,000. Germany confirmed another 256 cases on Monday, bringing its national total to 1,112, according to the Robert Kock Institute, Germany disease-control agency. After banning gatherings with more than 1,000 people in attendance as we noted last night, French officials confirmed that the national total had climbed to 1,126, with more than 200 new cases. The death toll in France stands at 19, while the German outbreak, which is still mostly confined to Bavaria, specifically the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, hasn’t recorded any deaths.

  Cruise ships attempting to enter Puerto Rico must first certify that there are not coronavirus cases on board, Gov. Wanda Vazquez Garced claimed in a tweet on Sunday. This followed a local controversy that erupted after the Costa Luminosa, a cruise ship with a rumored sick passenger aboard, allowed its passengers to disembark in San Juan.

  Hemos ordenado que todo crucero que pretenda entrar a Puerto Rico tiene que confirmar que no tiene pasajeros abordo con casos sospechosos y cumple con los criterios de sintomatología e historial de viaje del gobierno federal referentes al COVID-19. @DeptSaludPR pic.twitter.com/vXgoAEqTTY

  — Wanda Vázquez Garced (@wandavazquezg) March 9, 2020

  The State Department has published a warning on Monday telling Americans not to travel on cruises, saying the US government can’t continue to intervene with passenger ships quarantined at sea.

  Finally, officials in China, who confirmed just 30 cases in Hubei late last night, have also confirmed that at least 11 have died following the collapse of a hotel being used as a quarantine that we reported on over the weekend. 80 were inside the building when it came down, while nine escaped, 71 were trapped. Of those, 50 have been pulled from the rubble, and 21 remained unaccounted for on Monday afternoon.

  In other new overnight developments, an American in Saudi Arabia has tested positive for the virus, according to the Saudi health ministry. The man had been travelling from the Philippines and Italy before arriving in the kingdom. Three others in al Qateef Province, including two Bahraini citizens, have also been infected. This comes after Saudi Arabia presided over the dissolution of OPEC and a ramped-up rivalry with Russia that has prompted the largest drop in oil prices since the early 90s Gulf War.

  Over in Oakland, the ‘Grand Princess’ cruise ship is preparing to dock at the Port of Oakland later in the day on Monday. The ship’s captain and Carnival-owned Princess cruises have said the disembarkation process will be “a multiple day process.”

  “Disembarkation will commence in order of priority, as defined and directed by both state and local authorities. It is expected to be a multiple day process,” said the release.

  “Once disembarkation of the guests is completed, the crew will remain onboard and Grand Princess will depart from San Francisco bay. Plans for a crew quarantine are still being determined.”

  We’ll be keeping a close eye on the situation in California and New York State, which is also seeing a surge in cases following an outbreak in a Westchester Jewish Community based in New Rochelle.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 03/09/2020 – 21:49

• Hand Sanitizer Is Flying Off The Shelves For $79 And $109 A Bottle At One NYC Hardware Store
  Hand Sanitizer Is Flying Off The Shelves For $79 And $109 A Bottle At One NYC Hardware Store

  At the Scheman & Grant Hardware at Eighth Avenue and 38th Street, the coronavirus represents shameless economic opportunity to take full advantage of the law of supply and demand. 

  Taking advantage of the ongoing panic, S&G is now selling 1200 ml bottles of Purell – a bottle that regularly costs about $5.49 – for $79.00.

  And the price doesn’t seem to be deterring people from buying them, either. An employee at the store told the NY Post: “Everyone who comes in the store buys them. We sold about fifty of those today.”

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  The hardware store was also offering larger size 2 liter bottles of Purell for $109 each. It sold out of its supply. 

  Mayor Bill de Blasio, always eager to stick his nose into the affairs of someone else’s private business, commented that it “sounded like” price gouging. “I’d like my Department of Consumer Affairs to pay them a visit immediately,” de Blasio said.

  Reached for comment, an Ace Hardware representative (the parent corporation of the hardware store) said: “Retailers are independent businessmen and women with sole control over the operation of their business, including pricing decisions and policies.”

  Meanwhile, the rise in price reflects the extraordinary spike in demand for the product, which along with Lysol wipes, has risen 1400% from December to January, according to CBS. Laxman Narasimhan, CEO of Lysol parent Reckitt Benckiser said last week the company’s “people are working around the clock with consumers in mind.”

  One 29 year old restaurant worker in Times Square who noticed the prices while in the hardware store said: “It makes me mad, man. It’s not right what they’re doing. They’re taking advantage of everything that’s going on. My boss at work was talking about. He has to make his own hand sanitizer out of alcohol and aloe Vera because look at these prices.”

  Economist Peter Schiff had a different take on price gouging during the coronavirus panic.

  “People are raising prices for certain supplies. Well of course,” Schiff said Friday on the QTR podcast. “Demand’s going up. Of course you’re going to raise prices! What are you supposed to do? If you don’t raise prices, all of your stuff is going to get bought by a few people who are then going to hoard it or resell it on the black market. Prices are a rationing mechanism.” 

  Meanwhile:

  The only handwashing tutorial you need pic.twitter.com/AZD3T2mhOG

  — Natalie (@nellanndee) March 8, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

   

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 03/09/2020 – 21:45

• All 3 US Cities Hit By COVID-19 Show Markedly Lower Weekend Traffic
  All 3 US Cities Hit By COVID-19 Show Markedly Lower Weekend Traffic

  Almost one month ago, we first looked at TomTom traffic congestion data across various Chinese cities (and a handful of US “control” cities) to assess the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the broader economy. Overnight, DataTrek’s Nicholas Colas took the TomTom data in his analysis of not only China, but also Italy and that other cluster of covid-19 cases, the U.S.

  Here is what he found, from his latest Morning Briefing note to clients.

  We continue to track traffic congestion around the world as a real-time measure of COVID-19’s impact on the global economy. This weekend’s data shows how the virus is affecting consumer demand, in comparison to weekday volumes that highlight commutation patterns. Today we will review the data from 9 major cities around the world, all touched by the virus but at various stages of reaction to the health threat.

  First, here is the 7-day data for Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen (recent week in red, 1-year averages in light blue):

  Beijing:

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  Shanghai:

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  Shenzhen:

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  Takeaway: while weekday traffic is getting back to normal, weekend congestion is essentially zero in Beijing and Shanghai although somewhat better in Shenzhen. China is clearly getting back to work but leisure travel/shopping is still not yet reaccelerating.

  Now, here are Milan, Rome and Paris:

  Milan:

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  Rome:

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  Paris:

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  Takeaway: the northern Italian quarantine is not affecting Milan’s traffic as much as China’s weekend data shows, but Roman congestion shows a marked slowing of economic activity starting Thursday and Paris was well below trend this weekend.

  Finally, here are Seattle, San Francisco and New York:

  Seattle:

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  San Francisco:

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  New York:

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  Takeaway: all 3 US cities affected by COVID-19 show markedly lower weekend traffic than average, and the generally subpar congestion during the middle/later part of the workweek tells us this is not due to the sorts of seasonal patterns we mentioned in our “Markets” section.

  The upshot from all this: as capital markets have already started to discount, the global consumer is quickly retrenching, led by individuals who live in a city where COVID-19 has taken hold.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 03/09/2020 – 21:25

• First Virus-Related Hate Crime? Man Wearing Surgical Mask Stabs Asian In NYC
  First Virus-Related Hate Crime? Man Wearing Surgical Mask Stabs Asian In NYC

  A man wearing a surgical mask stabbed an Asian man in Brooklyn, New York, more than a dozen times over the weekend, reported the New York Post. 

  NYPD sources told The Post that the incident occurred on Saturday evening, around 8th Avenue, could be one of the first Covid-19-related hate crimes in the country. NYPD later tweeted that there was “absolutely no nexus between the attack and the coronavirus.” 

  Recent media reports HAVE SUGGESTED that the stabbing of a Asian male in Brooklyn is Coronavirus related. At this time detectives working on this case have stated there is absolutely no nexus between the attack and the Coronavirus. SHOULD THERE BE A CHANGE WE WILL UPDATE. pic.twitter.com/WdEnrvtMD8

  — NYPD NEWS (@NYPDnews) March 8, 2020

  Li Qianyang, 48, was walking down 8th Avenue on Saturday evening when a man wearing a surgical mask stabbed him 13 times, the police said. 

  A police source told The Post that the attacker “was on top of him stabbing him.” 

  “One guy was chasing the other guy, and caught up with him outside,” a store owner told the Post. “He stabbed him so many times, and I’m amazed he survived.”

  First responders found Qianyang in a pool of blood, and it was reported that the attacker stabbed him in the heart. He was immediately taken to Lutheran Medical Center and remained in critical condition. 

  Video of the incident was recorded on a mobile phone, which shows how the attack played out. It appears the assailant had no interest in robbing the man but instead wanted Qianyang dead for reasons that are still unknown

  If this incident were indeed a Covid-19-related hate crime, it would be the first in the country. Everyone in New York City is on edge as virus cases in the tri-state area have jumped 200% since Friday, from 49 cases to now 150.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 03/09/2020 – 21:05

• Standard Chartered: Only A Combination Of Low Rates And Fiscal Stimulus Has A Chance Of Working
  Standard Chartered: Only A Combination Of Low Rates And Fiscal Stimulus Has A Chance Of Working

  With investor expectations for an imminent rate cut to 0% (or lower) running high, only surpassed by expectations for an imminent – and “very, very substantial” fiscal stimulus – Standard Chartered’s head of FX strategy Steve Englander has an unorthodox take: neither may be sufficient.

  As Englander writes in a note titled “Emptying the monetary policy cupboard?”, while the Fed may think that aggressively reducing policy rates is a prerequisite to fiscal policy, investors are sceptical that monetary policy is effective (and perhaps so is the Fed). But since “the FOMC may feel that fiscal stimulus is practical politically only if monetary policy is maxed out”, the combination of low rates and fiscal stimulus may be the key to enabling borrowers to meet obligations, according to the FX strategist.

  In terms of monetary expectations, Englander does not see the Fed doing anything too crazy, and expects the Fed to ease 25bps at its March and April meetings Fed easing likely in March and April, but as he admits, “recent Fed comments and asset market selling have led to markets pricing in just under 60bps for the March meeting.” Indeed, markets now price in end-April fed funds rates below 40bps. However, the problem is that per discussions with clients there is “little confidence that easier money will lead to a rapid economic rebound; many feel that that the recent 50bps move may have been ‘wasted’.“

  As such, and given economic and credit market concerns, fiscal policy will likely be more effective than monetary policy, according to Englander. To be sure, Fed officials have argued that lower rates will lead to mortgage refinancing, among other activity spurs. But the counterargument to more monetary easing (absent Quaranatative Easing of course) is that neither consumer durables spending nor plant and equipment investment will likely be much affected by lower interest rates when uncertainty is so elevated.

  Here’s the problem: as the Std Chartered strategist admits, “Fiscal stimulus may not be significantly effective, either, in generating additional spending. A tax cut that increases disposable income or business cash flow might not increase spending. However, it may enable businesses and households to avoid a major credit crunch, when payments are due but the expected revenues are not there.”

  The impact of fiscal stimulus via lower taxes may be less in generating additional spending than in substituting federal government credit, which is looking pretty good, for private-sector credit, where market concerns are beginning to emerge.

  And while this would not be a free lunch, but might be the cheapest eats out there as the objective of fiscal easing would be to keep households and businesses solvent so that supply and demand can bounce back quickly once the coronavirus abates.

  There is another consideration when expecting a major fiscal stimulus: the US elections and the lack of cooperation between Republicans and Democrats complicate reaching agreement on fiscal matters. As we saw in 2008, there can be cooperation even in an election year, when the political costs of not cooperating are sufficiently high. However, other policy options have to be exhausted.

  These considerations make a rapid response essential according to Englander, who cautions that the cost of repairing private-sector solvency, once impaired, is much greater than maintaining solvency by acting quickly. While the Fed has discussed fiscal policy in general terms, but has not come out squarely in its favor. However, in recent days we see signals of more urgency than we or the market expected in comments by Fed officials. As such, Friday’s comments by Boston Fed President Rosengren on the possibility of the Fed buying assets other than Treasuries can be seen in a similar light (although it is not clear if the Fed would just buy stocks or also barrels of oil after Monday’s record plunge).In any case, by narrowing the spread with already low-yielding US Treasuries, such purchases would directly reduce debt-servicing burdens.

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  Meanwhile, confirming the open-ended nature of the upcoming stimulus, St Louis Fed President James Bullard has made several television appearance in recent days with the message: “”Everything is on the table, we’re willing to do more,” and “We can meet at any time and move at any time in this situation” as he appeared to de-emphasise the March meeting, “I just don’t want people to focus so heavily on that particular day because the FOMC has already shown, Jay Powell has already shown, we can move between meetings.” And while Bullard says that the Fed could ease either before or after the March meeting, neither Englander nor others see “much to be gained by the Fed encouraging market speculation that the Fed would disappoint.”

  Putting this together, the logic is to clear the table of monetary policy so that the focus can shift to fiscal policy – which is likely to be more effective. Any fiscal measures are likely to involve some government spending in order to help steady employment. If this analysis is correct, measures will include a heavy dose of temporary tax reductions to improve cash flow and enable private-sector firms and households to stay current on debt servicing. Meanwhile, “the Fed’s contribution would be to enable the government to increase its debt burden on as favourable terms as possible.”

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 03/09/2020 – 20:45

• MSNBC Journalist Claims Calling Covid-19 "Wuhan Virus" Is Racist
  MSNBC Journalist Claims Calling Covid-19 “Wuhan Virus” Is Racist

  Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

  MSNBC journalist David Gura claims that referring to coronavirus as the “Wuhan virus” is racist despite the fact that virtually every other virus was named after its geographical origin.

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  “FYI: Calling #COVID19 the “Wuhan Virus” is racist,” commented Gura in a tweet that received 25,000 likes.

  FYI: Calling #COVID19 the “Wuhan Virus” is racist.

  — David Gura (@davidgura) March 9, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  He was immediately reminded of the fact that virtually every major virus in recent and not so recent history was named after the geographical region from which it emerged.

  West Nile Virus

  Zika Virus

  Ebola Virus

  German Measels

  Spanish Flu

  Marburg Virus

  Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever

  Norovirus

  Stockholm Syndrome

  Lyme Disease

  Wuhan Virus

  All named after places

  — Jack Posobiec (@JackPosobiec) March 9, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The mainstream media also repeatedly called COVID19 the “Wuhan virus” for weeks on end.

  Democrats are sadistically using the Wuhan Virus as a weapon in their fight for political power.

  These same Democrats are also attacking anyone who calls COVID-19 the “Wuhan Virus.”

  Funny, I wonder who was it who first used the term “Wuhan Virus”?

  🤔pic.twitter.com/ATRgQjx8FW

  — Paul A. Szypula (@Bubblebathgirl) March 9, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Even Chinese news sources refer to it as the “Wuhan virus.”

  Here’s what Chinese in Asia are calling COVID-19: “Wuhan Virus.”

  So no, it isn’t racist. pic.twitter.com/06U2RYyrPL

  — Ian Miles Cheong (@stillgray) March 9, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “FYI: Being patronizing and paternalistic about everything that involves anyone non-white is racist,” responded one Twitter user.

  Here’s what Chinese in Asia are calling COVID-19: “Wuhan Virus.”

  So no, it isn’t racist. pic.twitter.com/06U2RYyrPL

  — Ian Miles Cheong (@stillgray) March 9, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Gura’s comments are part of the continuing effort to patrol language in relation to the coronavirus outbreak.

  The World Health Organization has repeatedly issued statements demanding people avoid profiling or using certain words to describe the virus in order to avoid “stigmatizing” people.

  Perhaps if health authorities and the media concentrated wholly on preventing a global pandemic rather than policing words, we’d be in a better position.

   

  https://infowarsmedia.com/js/player.js

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  My voice is being silenced by free speech-hating Silicon Valley behemoths who want me disappeared forever. It is CRUCIAL that you support me. Please sign up for the free newsletter here. Donate to me on SubscribeStar here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 03/09/2020 – 20:25

• Oil, Stocks Rip Higher After Trump Promises "Very Dramatic" Actions To Support The Economy
  Oil, Stocks Rip Higher After Trump Promises “Very Dramatic” Actions To Support The Economy

  After almost the biggest single-day drop since Black Monday, it is hardly surprising that markets are bouncing back a little and all it took was the promise of ‘very very substantial’ relief to hard-working Americans hurt by the impact of the virus.

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  During the daily virus update press conference, President Donald Trump said his administration will discuss a possible payroll tax cut with the U.S. Senate, saying they would seek “very very substantial relief” for the economy that has been roiled by the outbreak of coronavirus.

  Trump, speaking at a White House news conference, added his administration plans to speak with lawmakers on Tuesday, seeking the aid to help hourly wage earners “so they don’t get penalized for something that’s not their fault.”

  The president also said he that he plans to announce “very dramatic” actions to support the economy at a press conference on Tuesday.

  And just like that WTI is up 4%…

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  And Dow futures are up over 400 points…

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  We wouldn’t hold our breath however, as we noted previously, the idea that Democrat-controlled Congress would ‘help’ is beyond a joke and in fact it could corner the President. If he comes asking for a payrolls tax-cut “for the people,” Democrats can easily respond “sure, just unwind the corporate tax cuts to pay for it and it’s a done deal.”

  But of course that will crush the stock market – which is the only thing really matters – and so Trump will refuse and Dems can play the “see, he doesn’t work for the ‘little people’ card.”

  Meanwhile, Daily Caller reporter Chuck Ross asked an excelent question:

  “Confused why, from an expectations management standpoint, the White House isn’t letting public know that there will be a spike in COVID cases as testing ramps up.”

  We can only imagine what that sudden jump will do markets.

  Additionally, it appears Mnuchin ‘made the call’ again…

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  As CNBC’s Wilfred ZFrost reports that I can confirm that the White House meeting with bank CEO’s will be on Wednesday at 3p ET. The nation’s biggest 7 banks have all been invited – maybe more too. I know at least 2 will send their CEO – I imagine all (other than JPM) will do so. Some industry bodies like ABA invited.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 03/09/2020 – 20:06

• To Avoid 'Mass Hysteria', Amazon, Facebook Ban Ads For 'Viral' Products
  To Avoid ‘Mass Hysteria’, Amazon, Facebook Ban Ads For ‘Viral’ Products

  All of a sudden, people are panic buying virus-related prevention products, such as N-95 respirators and surgical masks, Purell hand sanitizer, and disinfectants, amid the Covid-19 outbreak in the US. Many of these items have seen shortages at big-box retailers and on e-commerce platforms. The remaining supply has been shifted to Amazon, eBay, Craigslist, prepping sites, and or other e-commerce platforms, have seen prices skyrocket in the last several months. 

  Price gouging of virus-related products has become a significant issue since confirmed cases in China began to soar in mid-January. We noted how 3M N-95 masks were becoming short supply at the start of the year. Now prices have jumped nearly 10x in some cases; a box of 20 3M N-95 masks is going for more than $200 on some websites. 

  In the name of price gouging and just overall censorship of the virus, Facebook last Friday said it would block commerce listings and advertisements for respirators and surgical masks.

  “We’re monitoring COVID19 closely and will make necessary updates to our policies if we see people trying to exploit this public health emergency,” Facebook Director of Product Management Rob Leathern tweeted. “We’ll start rolling out this change in the days ahead.”

  Update: We’re banning ads and commerce listings selling medical face masks. We’re monitoring COVID19 closely and will make necessary updates to our policies if we see people trying to exploit this public health emergency. We’ll start rolling out this change in the days ahead.

  — Rob Leathern (@robleathern) March 7, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “We are temporarily banning advertisements and commerce listings that sell medical face masks,” a Facebook spokesperson said last week. “Our teams are monitoring the COVID19 situation closely and will make necessary updates to our policies if we see people trying to exploit this public health emergency.”

  Facebook will also ban ads that imply medical products are in limited supply, as well as make claims about virus “cures” or prevention. The social media website will remove virus-themed groups and pages from its algorithmic recommendations.

  On Friday, Google said it was blocking all ads that were virus-themed products. It said it has so far blocked tens of thousands of ads over the last month and a half. YouTube has also removed the content of virus prevention products. 

  eBay announced last week that N-95 and N-100 masks, sanitizers, and alcohol wipes would be forbidden on the online auction site. 

  Amazon said it’s working on banning sellers that are price-gouging customers. 

  The narrative by big tech companies is that price gouging is evil, and censoring and banning products from platforms are the solutions to protect consumers. But in reality, this is just a ploy to censor the virus and prevent further mass hysteria. The less you know, the less you panic, and the more compliant you will become too big government who tells you: “it’s just the flu bro.” 

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 03/09/2020 – 20:05

• Scientists Warn About Dangerous "Tipping Point" Where Covid-19 Goes From Mild To Deadly
  Scientists Warn About Dangerous “Tipping Point” Where Covid-19 Goes From Mild To Deadly

  As researchers, doctors and epidemiologists spend more time studying the coronavirus under a microscope, as well as in the 100k+ infections that have yielded reams of useful data, a troubling trend has emerged: researchers have identified a “tipping point” at which the virus goes from dangerous to deadly in extremely susceptible patients.

  According to research, while many patients experience nothing more than a mild cold, one in seven patients develops difficulty breathing and other “severe” complications, while 6% become critically ill and require hospitalization to stabilize their condition, risking death if they can’t receive the highest level of care.

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  Patients in these life-threatening situations typically suffer from respiratory and other vital system failures, according to the report by a team of WHO researchers delivered last month. Sometimes, sufferers can even experience sceptic shock.

  Since roughly 10-15% of mild-to-moderate patients progress to this next severe state, it’s important for hospitals and doctors to understand which patients are at highest risk of a worsening infection so they can factor this into their risk assessments and direct resources and attention accordingly. Because of these 10-15%, 15% to 20% of that group may progress to critically severe infection stage requiring the highest level of attention and care to save a life.

  Patients at highest risk include people at age 60 and older and those with pre-existing conditions such as hypertension, diabetes and cardiovascular disease.

  This type of triage should at least be familiar to most doctors since it resembles the infection profile of the seasonal flu, albiet with more patients progressing to the final most critical stage, said Jeffery K. Taubenberger.

  When everything goes well, white blood cells attack the virus and lock the infection down within a few days.

  Infection generally starts in the nose. Once inside the body, the coronavirus invades the epithelial cells that line and protect the respiratory tract, said Taubenberger, who heads the viral pathogenesis and evolution section of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in Bethesda, Maryland. If it’s contained in the upper airway, it usually results in a less severe disease.

  But if the virus treks down the windpipe to the peripheral branches of the respiratory tree and lung tissue, it can trigger a more severe phase of the disease. That’s due to the pneumonia-causing damage inflicted directly by the virus plus secondary damage caused by the body’s immune response to the infection.

  “Your body is immediately trying to repair the damage in the lung as soon as it’s happening,” Taubenberger said. Various white blood cells that consume pathogens and help heal damaged tissue act as first-responders. “Normally, if this goes well, you can clear up your infection in just a few days.”

  But if this doesn’t happen, if the virus persists, and continues to attack the tissue of the nose and throat, at some point, it will become more difficult for the body to fight off a secondary bacterial infection. Such secondary bacterial infections are particularly dangerous because they can damage the stem cells in the lungs, basically making it impossible for a patient’s lungs to heal.

  Secondary bacterial infections represent an especially pernicious threat because they can kill critical respiratory tract stem cells that enable tissue to rejuvenate. Without them, “you just can’t physically repair your lungs,” Taubenberger said. Damaged lungs can starve vital organs of oxygen, impairing the kidneys, liver, brain and heart.

  “When you get a bad, overwhelming infection, everything starts to fall apart in a cascade,” said David Morens, senior scientific adviser to the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. “You pass the tipping point where everything is going downhill and, at some point, you can’t get it back.”

  That tipping point probably also occurs earlier in older people, as it does in experiments with older mice, said Stanley Perlman, a professor of microbiology and immunology at the University of Iowa in Iowa City, who has studied coronaviruses for 38 years.

  But this isn’t the only way things can go wrong. Even healthy younger adults have succumbed to the virus, including Dr. Li Wenliang, the 34-year-old ophthalmologist who was one of the first to warn about the coronavirus in Wuhan. He died after receiving antibodies, antivirals, antibiotics, oxygen and having his blood pumped through an artificial lung. Scientists have theorized that some people have more of the distinctly shaped protein receptors in their respiratory epithelial cells that the virus targets.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 03/09/2020 – 19:45