Today’s News 30th July 2016

  • MacVLaDiMiR THe CaT

    MacVladimir The Cat: The Napoleon of Globalist Crime 

    MACVLADIMIR THE CAT

     

    MacVladimir a Mystery Cat: he’s called the Hidden Paw—
    For he’s the master criminal who defies globalists with a guffaw.
    He’s the bafflement of Scotland Yard, the Neocon’s despair:
    For when they reach the scene of crime—MacVladimir’s not there!

    MacVladimir, MacVladimir, there’s no one like MacVladimir,
    He’s broken every globalist law, he breaks economic laws of gravity.
    His powers of levitation would make a Keynesian fakir stare,
    And when you reach the scene of crime—MacVladimir’s not there!
    You may search that dingbat’s server, you may look on board Trump air—
    But I tell you once and once again, MacVladimir’s not there!

    MacVladimir’s a Moskovian cat, he’s very tall and thin;
    You would know him if you saw him, for his eyes are sunken in.
    His brow is deeply lined with thought, his head is highly domed;
    His KGB coat is dusty from neglect, his whiskers are uncombed.
    He sways his head from side to side, with movements like a snake;
    And when you think he’s half asleep, he’s always wide awake.

    MacVladimir, MacVladimir, there’s no one like MacVladimir,
    For he’s a fiend in feline shape, a monster of depravity.
    You may meet him in a by-street, you may see him in Red Square—
    But when a crime’s discovered, then MaVladimir’s not there!

    He’s outwardly respectable. (They say he’s mean at chess.)
    And his footprints are not found in any file of the anti-Snowden set.
    And when some data farm gets looted, or Hillary’s perm is rifled,
    Or when the milk is missing, or Obozo’s golf’s been stifled,
    Or some greenhouse gas gets farted, or the Bilderbugs despair
    Ay, there’s the wonder of the thing! MacVladimir’s not there!

    And when State or the CFR find a Treaty’s gone astray,
    Or  DNC numbnuts lose plans and drawings by the way,
    There may be a scrap of e-paper in the hall or on the stair—
    But it’s useless to investigate—MacVladimir’s not there!
    And when the loss has been disclosed, the Secret Service say:
    It must have been MacVladimir!’—but he’s 10,000 miles away.
    You’ll be sure to find him resting in his dacha, or a-licking of his thumb;
    Or engaged in doing complicated long army division sums.

    MacVladimir, MacVladimir, there’s no one like MacVladimir,
    There never was a Cat of such deceitfulness and suavity.
    He always has an alibi, and one or two to spare:
    At whatever time the deed took place—MACVLADIMIR WASN’T THERE !
    And they say that all the Cats whose wicked deeds are widely known
    (I might mention MungoTyler, I might mention Max or GriddleTrump)
    Are nothing more than agents for the Cat who all the time
    Just controls their operations: the Napoleon of Globalist Crime!

    MACVLADIMIR THE CAT

    From WilliamBanzai7’s Book of Practical Cats
    h/t TS Elliot

  • Three Steps To Reverse A "Doomsday" Clock

    Submitted by Vladimir Kozin via OrientalReview.org,

    The recent book review “A Stark Nuclear Warning” by Jerry Brown, in which he has shared views on William J. Perry’s memoirs “My Journey at the Nuclear Brink”, raises a lot of questions and concerns.

    Jerry Brown unequivocally describes Perry, who held many important positions in the past, including the U.S. Secretary of Defense in 1994-1997, as a double-hated man.

    On the one hand, as the U.S. Secretary of Defense he helped to build a formidable U.S. nuclear arsenal several decades ago, being responsible for important technological advances with respect to U.S. nuclear forces, like launching the B-2 a heavy strategic bomber; revitalizing the aging B-52, a bomber from the same category as SOA (Strategic Offensive Arms) inventory; putting the Trident submarine program back on track; and making an ill-fated attempt to bring the MX ICBM, a ten-warhead missile, into operation.

    On the other, William J. Perry has been identified as a staunch proponent of avoiding nuclear danger, nowadays, when he has retired and embarked “on an urgent mission to alert us to the dangerous nuclear road we are travelling.” He is clearly calling American leaders to account for what he believes “are very bad decisions”, such as the precipitous expansion of NATO right up to the Russian border (William J. Perry was a very brave man when he became the lone Cabinet member who opposed President Bill Clinton’s decision to give Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic immediate membership in the Alliance). William J. Perry has also not been supportive of President George W. Bush’s withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty with Russia in 2002.

    It is interesting to note that a person who took an active part in the continuous U.S. SOA and TNW (tactical nuclear weapons) build-up today has concluded that there could be no acceptable defence against a massive-scale nuclear attack. According to him, the great paradox of the nuclear age is that deterrence of nuclear war is sought by building ever more lethal and precise weapons. For the sake of reality it should be underscored that this notion has to be attributed exclusively to the USA, who has a long time ago embarked upon an “offensive unconditional nuclear deterrence strategy” which has not practically been changed so far.

    Jerry Brown observes that William J. Perry is convinced that parity is “old thinking” because nuclear weapons can’t actually be used – the risk of uncontrollable and catastrophic escalation is too high. Seemingly, he shares the earlier maxim once articulated by President Ronald Reagan: A nuclear war cannot be fought, because it can never be won.

    Unfortunately, in his remarks Jerry Brown has made a number of inaccuracies in describing some facts of the immediate past and the present-day military-political environment.

    He writes that: “…both the Soviet Union and the United States had developed hydrogen bombs”. In reality, the USA was the first state that produced H-bomb (1952), the USSR responded lately (1953). As is known, the USA was the first one who has produced an A-bomb; while the Soviet Union did so only in 1949. The USA was the first one who has created a classic SOA triad (ICBM, SLBM and heavy bombers), and MIRV ICBM. The USSR followed suit.

    That is why it is irrelevant to claim that “the Soviets just stepped up their nuclear efforts and so did the U.S.”

    turquie

    Jerry Brown reminds about the Cuban missile crisis, but does not clarify that it has been initiated by Washington who unilaterally has deployed medium-range nuclear missiles “Jupiter” with 1 megaton each in Italy and Turkey, and at a time when the USA had nuclear warheads superiority over the Soviet Union as 17:1 (revelation by Robert McNamara). Only after that dangerous action Moscow has decided to move its SNF to Cuba (note: before the Cuban missile crisis has been resolved, the Soviet leaders have not even authorized to install nuclear warheads upon the missiles and combat aircraft brought to Cuba).

    Jerry Brown is of opinion that the Cold War was over, and the nuclear weapons of the former Soviet Union were located not only in Russia, but also in three new republics that “were not capable of protecting them.” After the demise of the USSR, Russia has brought all SOA and TNW from these republics back to its territory, despite the fact that all these nuclear assets have been strongly protected. This measure has been agreed upon between Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Belarus and the Western nuclear powers.

    I do not believe that the Cold War is over despite the Paris Charter for a New Europe heralded that in 1990. The Cold War has entered a new phase – qualitatively more dangerous that its first phase. Cold War 2.0 is characterized by a vast military build-up of NATO near the Russian borders, and a complete stalemate in arms control: currently there are 15 unresolved issues in this domain between the USA and Russia. In the first stage of Cold War Moscow and Washington signed 7 nuclear arms control accords, CWC and BWC, CFE-1 and CFE-1A treaties, a number of CBM arrangements. Since 2010 nothing has been done in this sphere.

    So, it is incorrect to state that “the leaders of the Soviet Union and the United States did not make any effort to slow nuclear competition; they did just the opposite.”

    The reaction of Moscow to the fielding of the U.S. ground-based BMD assets in Europe was portrayed by Jerry Brown inaccurately.  Such elements plus sea-based components of the U.S BMD “shield” really create formidable threat to Russia and its allies because of two major reasons:

    (a) the launching tubes of the U.S. BMD system Mk-41 can house not only defensive interceptors, but also offensive cruise missiles and other war-fighting means in the framework of the “Prompt Global Strike” which can be used as a first-strike weapon versus Russia;

     

    (b) the U.S. and NATO BMD system has been tied up to their nuclear and conventional forces – such “appropriate mix” has been stamped up at the three recent NATO Summits in Chicago (2012), Newport (2014) and Warsaw (2016).

    Washington still does not want to abrogate its Cold War thinking: to cancel its first use of nuclear weapons’ concept. All U.S. Administrations have declined to accept several Soviet and Russian initiatives on that issue.

    President Barack Obama failed to ratify the CTBT (1996), though he has promised to do it during his presidency.

    1029655857

    Recently, in the framework of NATO the debates on the further strengthening of this largest military bloc reliance on nuclear weapons have intensified.

    The talk is about expanding the geographic scope and the total number of military exercises conducted with simulated use of bombs equipped with mock nuclear warheads, carrying military computer games on the use of nuclear weapons on the European continent, as well as the development of special scenarios on transformation of hypothetical conflict involving the general conventional forces into the conflicts with the use of nuclear weapons.

    Suggestions have been made that in the course of combined command and staff games of a “new type” with the help of computer simulation while resolving non-nuclear and nuclear tasks in the scenario of the regional and global environment the condition of the “use of Russian strategy of nuclear escalation” as a counterweight to the “nuclear counter-escalation” to NATO is included. The idea of involving in such games not only representatives of the military, but also high-ranking civilian government officials participating in making the important decisions of national importance is articulated.

    On June 25, 2015, during a hearing before the Committee on Armed Services of the US Congress devoted to the prospective role of nuclear weapons the United States Deputy Secretary of Defense Robert Work called to oppose to the Russian nuclear doctrine by the U.S. nuclear capabilities with the aim to launch a strategy of “de-escalation of escalation.” In other words, it is interpreted in Washington in such a way that an escalation of threats of the limited use of nuclear weapons should be used to de-escalate conflicts fought with conventional weapons.

    Commenting on the debate that took place during the meeting of the defense ministers of the member countries’ of the “transatlantic solidarity” in Brussels on 8 October 2015, the Permanent Representative of the United Kingdom to NATO Adam Thomson has publicly complained that before the Alliance held separate military exercises with the use of conventional and nuclear weapons, but has never tested the transformation of the first type of exercises in the second ones. But he further recognized with appreciation that the recommendation of the “transformation of NATO military exercises with the use of conventional weapons into nuclear drills” became the focus of attention within the Alliance.

    Pentagon chief Ashton Carter on the same day told a news conference that the transatlantic pact should prepare an “updated instructions on the use of nuclear weapons” in order to adapt to new threats and challenges of the 21st century and, in particular, called for “better integrate non-nuclear and nuclear deterrence.” His compatriot Alexander Vershbow, NATO Deputy Secretary General, said at the Berlin Security Conference November 17, 2015, the Alliance also must “modernize nuclear deterrence, strengthening his best means of early warning and intelligence.”

    In 2014-2016 in order to develop new nuclear posture the U.S. strategic nuclear forces held several military exercises in Central and Eastern Europe, and North Africa, employing heavy strategic bombers B-52H and B-2A, capable of carrying nuclear weapons.

    In March 2004 Washington initiated on the constant basis a large-scale NATO air patrol operations in the airspace of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, code-named “Baltic Air Policing”. It involves combat aircraft (DCA), which are potential carriers of tactical nuclear weapons. Over the past twelve years, i.e. from March 2004 to July 2016, fifteen countries of the Alliance, that is, more than half of NATO member-states have been participated in this operation near Russian borders, including the three major Western nuclear powers: the USA, the United Kingdom and France. This operation is conducted day-in-day-out, and 365/366 days per annum.

    Washington is modernizing its TNW, including those fielded in Europe, and has no intention to pull them back to the CONUS.

    B61_2014_03

    Two of the five existing types of nuclear bombs, namely B-61-7 and B-61-11, as well as a new perspective bomb B-61-12 have “of strategic importance”, as may be delivered to targets not only by tactical aircraft but also by heavy strategic bombers B-52H and B-2A: each can carry 16 such bombs. Both types of strategic bombers can to travel the distance of 11,000 km without refueling in the air, and more than 18,000 km with mid-air refueling. For this reason these types of bombs in the documents of the Pentagon and the State Department are labeled as “strategic”.

    A new bomb B-61-12 with a pin-point accuracy is a first-strike nuclear weapon.

    Hans Kristensen, a Danish researcher, working at FAS, points out that “… it is expected that in the next decade, NATO’s nuclear forces will undergo major improvements that will affect increasing quality performance characteristics of both the nuclear weapons and their means of delivery. The planned modernization will significantly increase the military potential of the Alliance’s nuclear policy in Europe.”

    The “doomsday” clock is ticking. Nowadays it shows 23.57. Too alarming.

    What to do? Seemingly, three initial steps are badly needed…

    First. To make a pledge of no-fist-use of nuclear weapons a universal norm, starting from the USA and Russia. As a preliminary step towards this goal to make a commitment to resort to a defensive unconditional nuclear deterrence that threatens no one. Such notion will require no costs.

     

    Second. The USA should withdraw all its TNW from Europe and the Asian part of Turkey.

     

    Third. A multilateral new ABM Treaty limiting the number of BMD interceptors and their geographical deployments has to be elaborated.

    The next U.S. Administration has to seriously consider these steps.

  • Damn It Feels Good To Be A Gangsta; Until You Get Sentenced To 21 Months In Federal Prison

    Many of us, at one point or another, have wondered what it would be like to quit a job in a blaze of glory…taking down computer networks and leaving a trail of mayhem in our paths on the way out the door. No, just us?   

    Project Mayhem

    Well, turns out that if you ever do go down that path it’s probably best
    not to text your co-worker shortly thereafter admitting to the crime. 
    Unfortunately, that’s exactly what former Citibank employee Lennon Ray
    Brown did and now he’s facing a $77,000 fine and 21 months in a federal
    prison.

    Per a press release from the Department of Justice, Mr. Brown, upset about a negative work review, decided to get even by taking down 90% of Citibank’s networks across North America.  Per the Department of Justice:

    …at approximately 6:03 p.m. that evening, Brown knowingly transmitted a code and command to 10 core Citibank Global Control Center routers, and by transmitting that code, erased the running configuration files in nine of the routers, resulting in a loss of connectivity to approximately 90% of all Citibank networks across North America.  At 6:05 p.m. that evening, Brown scanned his employee identification badge to exit the Citibank Regents Campus.”

    Unfortunately, Brown then made a “slight” unforced error when he decided to send a text message to his co-worker admitting to the crime:

    “They was firing me. I just beat them to it. Nothing personal, the upper management need to see what they guys on the floor is capable of doing when they keep getting mistreated. I took one for the team. Sorry if I made my peers look bad, but sometimes it take something like what I did to wake the upper management up.”

    Guess these situations don’t always go so well as portrayed in the movies.  Oh well, live and learn.

  • Who Buys Legal Weed?

    Via Priceonomics.com,

    Marijuana pop culture has traditionally centered around the young male smoker and his high times. But the legalization movement has made marijuana more accessible than ever been before, and cannabis’s application as a painkiller is particularly appealing to senior citizens. 

    So what does the typical, recreational marijuana user look like today? And how do the preferences and spending habits of groups like young men and senior citizens differ? 

    We explored these questions by drawing on the data of Headset, a Priceonomics customer with a large dataset of cannabis retailer transaction data. Since many of these cannabis dispensaries have customer loyalty programs, the data includes information about customers’ age and gender. We decided to use to this data to learn more about who buys weed and what they smoke or consume.

    The data suggests that smokers in the customer loyalty program are overwhelmingly male, accounting for about 70% of all members. And, while customers range from ages 21 to 95, over 50% of loyalty members are under 40.  

    We also found that while Flower (your typical marijuana bud) accounts for about half of the purchases made by each demographic, each group has its own quirks. Compared to the opposite sex, men prefer concentrates and women prefer pre-rolls and edibles. Older consumers prefer edibles to pre-rolled joints.

    ***

    We began our analysis by examining the the customer split by gender. Are men or women more likely to visit cannabis dispensaries often?

    Data source: Headset

    Accounting for 68.9% of customers, the ratio of men to women is well over 2:1. This disparity is not surprising given cannabis culture’s emphasis on the male pothead.  

    Next we examined the distribution of customer age.

    Data source: Headset

    25- to 29-year-olds account for the largest percentage of customer loyalty members (20%), followed by 21- to 24-year-olds (16%). Yet the average customer age is 37.6-years-old, which is a higher than one might expect given stereotypes about marijuana users. The average age for female customers is slightly older at 38.2, while the average age for males is 37.4. People ages 65 to 95 make up less than 5% of customers.

    We also wanted to look at customer spending habits. Below is the distribution of average dollars spent per trip to the store.

    Data source: Headset

    Most people spend between $25 and $50 per trip to a marijuana store, with a $33 median spend per trip. 34.7% of customers spend less than $10 on average, usually picking up a single item like a half gram pre-roll or a carbonated beverage. Only 8.2% spend more than $100/trip.  

    We also analyzed the distribution of annual spend by customer loyalty members on marijuana. The chart below shows the total amount spent in dispensaries over the last year by customers who have been loyalty members for over one year.

    Data source: Headset

    The median customer spends $645 on pot each year, and over 57% of customers spent more than $500. Very few customers—less than 10%—spent over $2,500.

    So do different demographics have different shopping habits? To investigate, we first analyzed the marijuana purchasing behavior of loyalty members by gender.

    Data source: Headset

    For the most part, men and women have similar shopping and spending habits. Men shop slightly more often, visiting the store about every 19.5 days compared to 21.5 day for women. Although men buy fewer items per trip, they spend almost as much ($33) as women ($35).  

    Next we looked at these habits segmented by age.

    Data source: Headset

    Older loyalty members generally visit dispensaries less frequently, but they spend more when they do visit. Customers in their 80s spend the most per trip, with a median spend per trip of $64. Customers in their 40s, however, spent the most last year: a median of $823. 

    In a previous blog post, we looked at the most popular types of cannabis products. We were curious to see if the popularity of particular products differed by demographic. The chart below displays the product preferences of men and women.

    Data source: Headset

    Flower, which is “traditional” marijuana bud, is the most popular product for both genders. But it is even more popular among men: flower accounts for 4.4% more of their purchases. Women tend to buy more Pre-Roll and Edibles, while men buy more Concentrates. Women also tend to experiment more with non-traditional products (Other) such as Beverages, Tincture & Sublingual and Topicals.

    We also explored product preferences by age.

    Data source: Headset

    Each segment buys mostly Flower, with those in their 50s buying Flower at the highest rate. Older customers buy less Pre-Rolls than their younger counterparts. Pre-Rolls make up 27% of purchases among customers in their 20s, and this ratio drops down with each age band to only 8% of purchases for those 80 years or older. Conversely, the proportion of both Edibles and Other purchased increase with age—from 6% to 18% and 3% to 12%, respectively.   

    ***

    In contrast to the stereotypical depictions of marijuana users in popular culture and the mainstream media, our customer loyalty data shows that there is a wide range of pot smokers. Each customer segment brings their own habits and product preferences with them into the marijuana store. 

    As the industry develops, talking generically about “marijuana” and “pot sales” may become like referring to “alcohol sales” rather than talking about beer, wine, and cocktails.

  • No ID, No Problem – Feds Overrule North Carolina Voting Rules As "Discriminatory"

    Hillary and the federal government are determined to ensure a “fair” and “open” election this November and will stop at nothing to reverse discrimination against “oppressed” segments of the American electorate, well at least if you live in a large swing state.  This morning, the WSJ reported that the Fourth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in Richmond, Virginia struck down North Carolina’s voter ID law just days after we wrote about Virginia’s similar effort to register 200,000 “oppressed” felons.  The ruling asserts that North Carolina’s law violated the Voting Rights Act by discriminating against low-income and minority voters, saying:

    “In holding that the legislature did not enact the challenged provisions with discriminatory intent, the court seems to have missed the forest in carefully surveying the many trees. This failure of perspective led the court to ignore critical facts bearing on legislative intent, including the inextricable link between race and politics in North Carolina.”

     

    “Although the new provisions target African Americans with almost surgical precision, they constitute inept remedies for the problems assertedly justifying them and, in fact, impose cures for problems that did not exist.”

    Meanwhile, Dale Ho, director of the ACLU’s Voting Rights Project, described the ruling as a “stinging rebuke of the state’s attempt to undermine African-American voter participation, which had surged over the last decade.”

    While we have no doubt that the intentions of Hillary and the various federal organizations involved in this process are “pure,” we do wonder why we so often see greater efforts to “protect” the “oppressed” voters in larger swing states like Virginia and North Carolina but not so much in a small states like New Hampshire, which has a very strict voter ID requirement but only 4 electoral votes and has swung Democrat in 5 out of the past 6 Presidential elections.  Surely, low-income and minority voters are just as likely to be “oppressed” in New Hampshire as in North Carolina, right?

    Ballotpedia posted the following graphic which highlights the voter ID requirements of each state in the US with the red states having the most strict requirements:

     

    Voting Restrictions by State

    It just so happens, that we may have stumbled upon the perfect solution to this problem which we recently discussed in a post titled “There Is Now A Marketplace For White People To Make Reparations Payments“…a state-issued ID could make a very good reparation offer.

    The decisions for the Fourth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals can be read in its entirety below:

  • The Fed Is Preparing For Negative Rates – Here's The Sign Everyone Missed

    Submitted by John Mauldin via MauldinEconomics.com,

    I think it’s possible that the Fed will push rates below zero when the next recession arrives.

    I explained why a few months ago in my free weekly column, Thoughts from the Frontline, at Mauldin Economics.

    In that regard, something important happened recently. And not many people noticed. I’ll do a quick review to explain.

    In Congressional testimony last February, a member of Congress asked Janet Yellen if the Fed had legal authority to use negative interest rates. Her answer was this:

    In the spirit of prudent planning we always try to look at what options we would have available to us, either if we needed to tighten policy more rapidly than we expect or the opposite. So we would take a look at [negative rates]. The legal issues I'm not prepared to tell you have been thoroughly examined at this point. I am not aware of anything that would prevent [the Fed from taking interest rates into negative territory]. But I am saying we have not fully investigated the legal issues.

    So as of then, Yellen had no firm answer either way.

    A few weeks later, she sent a letter to Rep. Brad Sherman (D-CA). He had asked what the Fed intended to do in the next recession and whether it had authority to implement negative rates.

    She did not directly answer the legality question, but Sherman took the response to mean that the Fed thought it had the authority. Yellen noted in the letter that negative rates elsewhere seemed to be having an effect.

    (I agree that they are having an effect; it’s just that I don’t think it’s a good one.)

    Yellen’s claims are a clear sign the Fed is prepared to dive

    Fast-forward a few more weeks to Yellen’s June 21 congressional appearance. She stated that the Fed does have legal authority to use negative rates but denied any intent to do so.

    “We don't think we are going to have to provide accommodation, and if we do, [negative rates] is not something on our list.”

    I’m concerned about the legal authority question. If we are to believe Yellen’s sworn testimony to Congress, we know three things:

    1. As of February, Yellen had not “fully investigated” the legal issues of negative rates.
    2. As of May, Yellen was unwilling to state the Fed had legal authority to go negative.
    3. As of June, Yellen had no doubt the Fed could legally go negative.

    When I wrote about this in February, I said the Fed’s legal staff should be disbarred if they hadn’t investigated these legal issues. Clearly they had.

    Bottom line: by putting the legal authority question to rest, the Fed is laying the groundwork for taking rates below zero.

    I’m sure Yellen was telling the truth when she said in June that the Fed had no such plan. But, plans change.

    The Fed says it's data dependent. If the data shows we’re in recession, I think it is very possible the Fed will turn to negative rates to boost the economy.

    Except, in my opinion, it won’t work.

  • Hillary Promises "I'm Not Here To Take Away Your Guns"

    Via The Daily Bell,

    Hillary Clinton at her DNC speech: “I’m not here to take away your guns” …   Hillary Clinton wants you to know one thing about her position on gun control: “I’m not here to repeal the Second Amendment. I’m not here to take away your guns.”  She elaborated further on her comments, which she made at her Democratic National Convention speech accepting the presidential nomination: “I just don’t want you to be shot by someone who shouldn’t have a gun in the first place.” –Vox

    During her acceptance speech, see above, Hillary said she wasn’t going to take away guns in the US, but this is untrue.

    She knows just how to do it.

    First of all, she will make guns more expensive with new back ground checks.

    Second, she will make guns manufacturers liable for selling guns that later are used in crimes.

    But that is just the beginning.

    Hillary doesn’t actually believe that people in the US should have guns.

    In a Fox post HERE entitled, “Four ways Hillary Clinton will work to end gun ownership as president,” John Lott points out that in an appearance on ABC, Hillary would not say whether citizens had a constitutional right to own guns.

    George Stephanopoulos pushed Clinton twice on whether people have a right to own guns on ABC News’ “This Week”:

     

    “But that’s not what I asked.  I said do you believe that their conclusion that an individual’s right to bear arms is a constitutional right?”

     

    Clinton could only say: “If it is a constitutional right…”

    Clinton like other gun opponents, believes an overabundance of guns are responsible for the shootings that take place in the US, especially in mass shootings.

    But there are many questions about these mass shootings.

    David Steele, second-highest-ranking civilian in the U.S. Marine Corps Intelligence and former CIA clandestine services case officer, has said this here:

    “Most terrorists are false flag terrorists, or are created by our own security services. In the United States, every single terrorist incident we have had has been a false flag, or has been an informant pushed on by the FBI. In fact, we now have citizens taking out restraining orders against FBI informants that are trying to incite terrorism. We’ve become a lunatic asylum.”

    Such FBI involvement leads one to ask whether there are forces in and behind the US government that are manufacturing violence in order to justify continued anti-gun agitation.

    Authoritarian governments and those who back them don’t want people to have guns because without guns, it is much easier to force people to obey. When people are not armed, genocide becomes a more viable and convenient option.

    Government killed hundreds of millions in the 20th century. The 21st century may equally bloody, especially if guns continue to be confiscated.

    In the US, many citizens have fought back against gun confiscation.  But if Hillary wins the presidency, discussions about gun control will become moot.

    Guns will be confiscated. Lott explains it this way:

    Until 2008, Washington, D.C., had a complete handgun ban. It was also a felony to put a bullet in the chamber of a gun. In effect, this was a complete ban on guns. In District of Columbia v. Heller, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down these laws.

    But the constituency of the Supreme Court is changing. Stephen Breyer and Ruth Bader Ginsburg are Bill Clinton appointees. Sonia Sotomayor was appointed by Obama as was Elana Kagan.

    “If Hillary wins in November, she will appoint [Antonin] Scalia’s successor and the Supreme Court will overturn the Heller decision.  Make no mistake about it, gun bans will return.”

    Only one more appointee is needed.

    Conclusion: Hillary herself will not have to “pull the trigger” on gun confiscations. She will let the Supreme Court do it for her.

  • What Alan Greenspan Is Most Worried About

    Jeff Gundlach is not the only person who is feeling “maximum negative” on Treasuries.

    In an interview, none other than the “Maestro” Alan Greenspan, the man whose “great moderation” policy made the current global bond bubble possible, said that he is worried bond prices have risen too high.

    Asked if he finds what is happened in the bond market right now “in any way, shape, or form concerning for financial stability”, Greenspan replied that “it’s obvious that you ought to be looking at the price earnings ratio in bonds to income.  We get very nervous when the stock price index goes to high PE.  We ought to be somewhat nervous when the bond rate does the same…. To believe that we can keep rates down here for very much longer strikes me as to say that human nature is going to change, and that’s one thing I wouldn’t bet on.

    He did not mention that the only reason why there continues to be such an unprecedented stampede into fixed income, pushing yields to record (negative) lows, is because investors are merely frontrunning central banks; they also know that as monetization accelerates and as private supply leave the market, the same central banks will purchase whatever bonds they can find at any price, and that is the only reason why global bond yields are where they are.

    Instead he said the following:

    The best way to view negative interest rates is to think in terms of the fact of, where, for example, securities denominated in the Swiss franc, the yields on those, versus, for example, the Italian lire as it used to be, the Italian euro now.  But that spread hasn’t changed very much for a very long period of time.  So when global deflation takes hold, as it has, all interest rates fall, but the spread doesn’t.  So, in order to maintain that spread, Swiss interest rates have got to turn negative.  Now, the question is, how far can they?  Well, there is an arbitrage, that obviously one can get. 

     

    For example, in the United States, if interest rates got very negative, what we would do is all get in to currency in which it’s a zero interest rate — I should say it’s a zero cost. We would get into currency, stack it all up in, I would say, in a vault somewhere.  The problem with that arbitrage, obviously, is there’s a limited amount of currency you can hold, so at some point, something is going to give.  The initial sign is going to be a big pickup in the holding, for example, of U.S. currency, both here and abroad – sorry, parenthetically, very large part of currency, U.S. currency, is held outside the United States. 

    Which reveals an interesting tangent: to Greenspan, a key indicator of when the system begins to tip over is when the run on the US physical currency begins, not so much in the US as abroad.  And speaking of tipping over, Greenspan was quite clear: “it hasn’t happened, but it will.”

    The only thing you can hedge against is the currency, and that’s got a physical limit to it.  So there’s a downside limit to how far people are willing to pay to say, for example, get into Swiss securities.  And that’s when the markets begin to react quite differently.  Hasn’t happened yet, but it will.

    Remaining on the topic of currency, Greenspan then tied in the issue of surging currency vol, to his favorite topic: unsustainable entitlement costs. Answering a question what is causing global foreign exchange volatility, Greenspan’s responded as follows:

    I think the cause of it is that there’s a very significant amount of uncertainty in the global economy.  It’s coming from the fact that, as I indicated before, in the United States, we’ve got very, very major entitlements problem, which politically, I don’t see how we’re going to touch.  We went through two conventions.  The word entitlements never got raised, except, let’s do it more.  Now, we’re going to have to cut back.  There’s no physical way to continue doing this without destabilizing the financial system.  So, it will stop, but the problem is that it’s going to take a while before the political system adjusts.  So, it’s hard for me to see how we get out of this unless we address that problem first.

    But more important than his discussion on bonds or currencies, was Greenspan’s explanation of “what he is most concerned about”, namely stagflation – the same economic problem that we wrote about in early April in a post titled: “The Next Big Problem: “Stagflation Is Starting To Show Across The Economy.” The former Fed chairman agrees, as follows:

    Three fourths of the major economies, OEC economies for example, have, over the last five years, have had a less than a one percent annual rate of upward growth. The economy can’t go anywhere under those conditions, and we’re getting a state of stagnation which is not only evident in the United States but pretty much throughout Europe and the far east. And as a consequence of that, it’s very difficult to see where the next step is except what I’m concerned about mostly, is stagflation, meaning I think we’re seeing the very early signs of inflation beginning finally to pick up as the issue of deflation fades.

    Greenspan is then asked about these two elements, “the stag and the flation. How acute is this problem with productivity, the lack of growth?  Do you see a recession in our future within the next 12, 18, 24 months?

    It’s very difficult to say.  In fact, I don’t think you can describe the world economies in terms of the old conventional issue of inflation, recession, and the like.  What we are dealing with is a population that is aging very rapidly, and that is inducing a major increase in so-called social benefits, what we in the United States call entitlements.  And that is dominating the whole financial system, and until we come to understand that we have got to slow this rate of growth, which in the United States has been 9% per year since 1965, we are now down to the point where it’s taken so much savings out of the economy that we’re not getting enough investment, but that has very little to do with whether we’re going in a recession or not.  I think we’re just in a stagnation state. 

    That covers the “stag.” How about the “flation“?

    Well we’re beginning to get a pickup in wages beyond the rate of growth of productivity, and that is usually the best indicator.  But, just as importantly now, is that since money, at the end of the day, is what causes inflation, we have been seeing, since the beginning of the year a significant pickup in the rate of money supply growth, and over the very long-run, it’s the ratio of money supply divided by the real GDP capacity to produce, which ultimately determines the price level.  It’s a very rough indicator.  It doesn’t work for two or three years and then it pops in.  But over the long-run, it’s never failed.  And we’re in a situation now where looking at the interest rate levels that we’re looking at and the inflation rates we’re looking at, it’s very clear that we’re going to be moving reasonably shortly into a wholly different phase.

    In retrospect, between the soaring welfare costs, and the upcoming stagflationary hit, it is also very clear why exactly a month ago Alan Greenspan also warned that not only is a crisis imminent but that it is paramount to “return to the gold standard” immediately. We doubt that will happen.

    Much more in the full interview below:

  • No One Can Stop Her… And She Knows It: "This Election Won't Be Fair"

    Submitted by Mac Slavo via SHTFPlan.com,

    To the left, a shot from Charlie Chaplin’s The Great Dictator; to the right, Hillary’s acceptance speech was a carefully scripted triumph over the democratic process… as demonstrated by her playing with the balloons like the world is her toy.

    In a fair election, my best estimate is that Donald Trump would win in a landslide.

    But this election will not be fair. In fact, few of them are.

    For Trump’s part, there is no doubt that he has been this year’s sensation. A newcomer to politics, he has thrown out all the conventional rules, played by his own, and found a captivated country hanging onto his every word. Love him, hate him, or somewhere in between… no one can look away from the spectacle.

    After a war within the party and the convenient disposal of 16 conventional GOP contenders, Trump is now the official Republican candidate and he is in a strong position. Coming out of the relatively calm Republican National Convention and going into the tumultuous DNC, Trump has enjoyed soaring poll numbers while Hillary has been losing ground fast to the scandals and corruption revealed by Wikileaks and other related mouthpieces.

    But the fat lady has not sung.

    Hijacking the Party, Keeping Dissent Under Wraps

    Hillary’s coronation last night as she formally accepted her party’s nomination could hardly have been more forced. The entire Democratic convention has been stage-managed to downplay the overwhelming noise from Bernie supporter who are outraged and feel betrayed by Hillary.

    The entire convention has had a certain air to it, a quality that reveals the desperation for power, and the crisp sense of danger that brings with it.

     

    Protesters Rage Against the DNC: “Hillary Didn’t Get the Nomination. The Nomination Was Stolen”

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    To a casual observer, things might look typical enough, with a few sore losers and pipe dreamers wishing for an ideal country run by decent and fair people that either don’t exist or haven’t figured out how to win an election. But things are not typical – the paradigm is shifting. Politics realigns every 30 years or so, or at least that is the maxim that has held in political science. Only, the last shift has been 30 or 40 years overdue.

    There is a reason for that, and the establishment has been fighting to stop the change for the past generation. They have faked out the cycle and kept the population under their thumb (when was the last time you saw a “real” presidential election that wasn’t a means to keeping the status quo?)

    But delaying the inevitable won’t hold.

    Why Trump Should Win…

    As Michael Moore argued, Trump has been preaching the gospel of restoring America’s manufacturing, and is working to woo and turn to “red” the “blue” Rust Belt states where Americans once had strong middle class jobs, especially in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. According to Moore’s numbers (which are cited to motivate support for Hillary and opposition to Trump), if Trump captures those key states in addition to the red states that Mitt Romney, a weak candidate, won in 2012, then Trump should win the electoral college:

    I believe Trump is going to focus much of his attention on the four blue states in the rustbelt of the upper Great Lakes – Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Four traditionally Democratic states – but each of them have elected a Republican governor since 2010 (only Pennsylvania has now finally elected a Democrat). In the Michigan primary in March, more Michiganders came out to vote for the Republicans (1.32 million) that the Democrats (1.19 million). Trump is ahead of Hillary in the latest polls in Pennsylvania and tied with her in Ohio. Tied? How can the race be this close after everything Trump has said and done? Well maybe it’s because he’s said (correctly) that the Clintons’ support of NAFTA helped to destroy the industrial states of the Upper Midwest.

    In fact, Moore is right. Nobody wants any more Flint, Michigans (where the water is contaminated and poverty seems to be airborne and contagious), least of all Michael Moore.

    Trump’s appeal is much broader than just his sensational antics and controversial statements. He is resonating with America because he is speaking to the wounds of those struggling to cling to what’s left of the middle class American Dream.

    And the strength of Trump’s position there is buttressed by the cold fact that the Clinton’s strong support for NAFTA played a major role in the downward spiral of the Rust Belt, and many other parts of the United States.

    Trump’s appeal to bringing jobs back to America has to sound like not only a good campaign strategy, but an actual sound idea.

    Things have reached a point where nearly every American – regardless of how little they pay attention to news and world affairs – is feeling the damage that has been done. NAFTA, GATT, the WTO and an entire shift into pseudo-governing structures of globalism that have eaten away at the sovereignty of the United States and devoured the prosperity of its people have taken a serious toll on our way of life. And we have all been programmed to take it lying down.

    The steady flow of funny money, artificially pumped out by the Federal Reserve has kept many from noticing it, but the real world effects are still hitting people on the street. Not only does the dollar not go as far as it used to, but everything in life is increasing in cost, and getting watered down in value and substance. Society is acting out one big charade, and pretending not to notice the outrage, dissent and anger seeping through the cracks and edges.

    Inevitable and determined to win at all costs

    Rather than let that burst on her watch, and during the only opportunity she has left in this lifetime, Hillary Clinton and her minions have rearranged all the deck chairs in her favor to force a win. It certainly hasn’t come from the grassroots. Where necessary, the Democratic party has fudged primaries and stolen them outright. The mainstream media has been scripted around her as an anointed figure who is untouchable and beyond reproach. They have stifled exposure of Bernie and would have done so to any other rival… if only any others had dared to enter the race.

    Instead, the campaign to elect Hillary became an unrelenting junta to force her into office in spite of the will of the people, the rules of the game or the ever-expanding negative image of the former First Lady, Senator and Secretary of State whose corruption and ties to bad deeds are both legendary and sufficiently documented to warrant life without parole.

    There was a never a realistic chance that Hillary would be prosecuted or even reprimanded over her email scandals, because the fix was in a long time ago. Those who would theoretically hold her into account were appointed by her husband, or by President Obama, and their cooperation was assured in private.

    Though many have argued that you can’t put lipstick on a pig, that is exactly what has taken place. 2016 is more of a farce than ever… and there is still another round to go.

    Only One Persons Stands Between Her and the Presidency

    Can anyone else see that the most rigged and stolen election of all time is shaping up? If the Democratic party doesn’t want Hillary, what makes anyone think the entire country wants anything to do with her?

    Before you answer that openly, make a strong educated guess about who the next president is going to be… and how many bodies she will have to climb over to get there.

    What Wikileaks exposed with Debbie Wasserman Schultz and the DNC, and what the emails have revealed about Hillary and the Clinton Foundation are surely only the tip of the iceberg. The stories of the delegates who were silenced or kicked out of the convention, and many other deceitful acts to destroy dissent and keep up appearances suggest some of the rest of the story… and it is anything but democratic or “of the people” – though very likely the whole of it will never be known.

    There is something very, very wrong going on and it is time that everyone – regardless of ideology, party affiliation or politics – needs to face up to. Preliminary evidence indicates strongly that there has been a very carefully orchestrated coup taking place… and if successful, it will have only one logical conclusion:

    Total power, at any price, with a facade of support and momentum that just isn’t there from anyone other than a handful of elite billionaires, and a cadre of clients with addresses that are either foreign or based on Wall Street.

    If you missed the convention coverage, then you have got to see Hillary playing with the balloons after her speech.

    There really is no wondering who she is concerned about… herself, of course.

    As I mentioned above, it is reminiscent – even spot on – of Charlie Chaplin’s amazing parody in The Great Dictator, where his version of a Hitler-esque autocrat toys with the world as his plaything.

    We are in for a world of hurt if what I think is going to happen turns out. The entire democratic process is being pushed back under the water, and a crude, fake smile is broadcast for appearances, while holding it all down.

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Today’s News 29th July 2016

  • The Power Of "Nyet" – How One Word Staggered Imperial Washington

    Submitted by Dmitry Orlov via Club Orlov blog,

    The way things are supposed to work on this planet is like this: in the United States, the power structures (public and private) decide what they want the rest of the world to do. They communicate their wishes through official and unofficial channels, expecting automatic cooperation. If cooperation is not immediately forthcoming, they apply political, financial and economic pressure. If that still doesn’t produce the intended effect, they attempt regime change through a color revolution or a military coup, or organize and finance an insurgency leading to terrorist attacks and civil war in the recalcitrant nation. If that still doesn’t work, they bomb the country back to the stone age. This is the way it worked in the 1990s and the 2000s, but as of late a new dynamic has emerged.

    In the beginning it was centered on Russia, but the phenomenon has since spread around the world and is about to engulf the United States itself. It works like this: the United States decides what it wants Russia to do and communicates its wishes, expecting automatic cooperation. Russia says “Nyet.” The United States then runs through all of the above steps up to but not including the bombing campaign, from which it is deterred by Russia’s nuclear deterrent. The answer remains “Nyet.” One could perhaps imagine that some smart person within the US power structure would pipe up and say: “Based on the evidence before us, dictating our terms to Russia doesn’t work; let’s try negotiating with Russia in good faith as equals.” And then everybody else would slap their heads and say, "Wow! That's brilliant! Why didn't we think of that?" But instead that person would be fired that very same day because, you see, American global hegemony is nonnegotiable. And so what happens instead is that the Americans act baffled, regroup and try again, making for quite an amusing spectacle.

    The whole Edward Snowden imbroglio was particularly fun to watch. The US demanded his extradition. The Russians said: “Nyet, our constitution forbids it.” And then, hilariously, some voices in the West demanded in response that Russia change its constitution! The response, requiring no translation, was “Xa-xa-xa-xa-xa!” Less funny is the impasse over Syria: the Americans have been continuously demanding that Russia go along with their plan to overthrow Bashar Assad. The unchanging Russian response has been: “Nyet, the Syrians get to decide on their leadership, not Russia, and not the US.” Each time they hear it, the Americans scratch their heads and… try again. John Kerry was just recently in Moscow, holding a marathon “negotiating session” with Putin and Lavrov. Above is a photo of Kerry talking to Putin and Lavrov in Moscow a week or so ago and their facial expressions are hard to misread. There’s Kerry, with his back to the camera, babbling away as per usual. Lavrov’s face says: “I can’t believe I have to sit here and listen to this nonsense again.” Putin’s face says: “Oh the poor idiot, he can’t bring himself to understand that we’re just going to say ‘nyet’ again.” Kerry flew home with yet another “nyet.”

    What’s worse, other countries are now getting into the act. The Americans told the Brits exactly how to vote, and yet the Brits said “nyet” and voted for Brexit. The Americans told the Europeans to accept the horrendous corporate power grab that is the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), and the French said “nyet, it shall not pass.” The US organized yet another military coup in Turkey to replace Erdo?an with somebody who won’t try to play nice with Russia, and the Turks said “nyet” to that too. And now, horror of horrors, there is Donald Trump saying “nyet” to all sorts of things—NATO, offshoring American jobs, letting in a flood of migrants, globalization, weapons for Ukrainian Nazis, free trade…

    The corrosive psychological effect of “nyet” on the American hegemonic psyche cannot be underestimated. If you are supposed to think and act like a hegemon, but only the thinking part still works, then the result is cognitive dissonance. If your job is to bully nations around, and the nations can no longer be bullied, then your job becomes a joke, and you turn into a mental patient. The resulting madness has recently produced quite an interesting symptom: some number of US State Department staffers signed a letter, which was promptly leaked, calling for a bombing campaign against Syria in order to overthrow Bashar Assad. These are diplomats. Diplomacy is the art of avoiding war by talking. Diplomats who call for war are not being exactly… diplomatic. You could say that they are incompetent diplomats, but that wouldn’t go far enough (most of the competent diplomats left the service during the second Bush administration, many of them in disgust over having to lie about the rationale for the Iraq war). The truth is, they are sick, deranged non-diplomatic warmongers. Such is the power of this one simple Russian word that they have quite literally lost their minds.

    But it would be unfair to single out the State Department. It is as if the entire American body politic has been infected by a putrid miasma. It permeates all things and makes life miserable. In spite of the mounting problems, most other things in the US are still somewhat manageable, but this one thing—the draining away of the ability to bully the whole world—ruins everything. It’s mid-summer, the nation is at the beach. The beach blanket is moth-eaten and threadbare, the beach umbrella has holes in it, the soft drinks in the cooler are laced with nasty chemicals and the summer reading is boring… and then there is a dead whale decomposing nearby, whose name is “Nyet.” It just ruins the whole ambiance!

    The media chattering heads and the establishment politicos are at this point painfully aware of this problem, and their predictable reaction is to blame it on what they perceive as its ultimate source: Russia, conveniently personified by Putin. “If you aren’t voting for Clinton, you are voting for Putin” is one recently minted political trope. Another is that Trump is Putin’s agent. Any public figure that declines to take a pro-establishment stance is automatically labeled “Putin’s useful idiot.” Taken at face value, such claims are preposterous. But there is a deeper explanation for them: what ties them all together is the power of “nyet.” A vote for Sanders is a “nyet” vote: the Democratic establishment produced a candidate and told people to vote for her, and most of the young people said “nyet.” Same thing with Trump: the Republican establishment trotted out its Seven Dwarfs and told people to vote for any one of them, and yet most of the disenfranchised working-class white people said “nyet” and voted for Snow White the outsider.

    It is a hopeful sign that people throughout the Washington-dominated world are discovering the power of “nyet.” The establishment may still look spiffy on the outside, but under the shiny new paint there hides a rotten hull, with water coming in though every open seam. A sufficiently resounding “nyet” will probably be enough to cause it to founder, suddenly making room for some very necessary changes. When that happens, please remember to thank Russia… or, if you insist, Putin.

  • Bank Of Japan Shocks Market, Shuns Government Pressure: Leaves QE, Rates Unchanged, Questions Policy Effectiveness

    Expectations were extremely high heading into tonight's BoJ decision, and market liquidity disappeared with massive violent swings in FX, rates, and equity markets before Kuroda unleashed his disappointing statement:

    • *BANK OF JAPAN TAKES ADDITIONAL ACTION
    • *BOJ EXPANDS PURCHASES OF ETFS TO 6T YEN
    • *BOJ DOUBLES USD LENDING PROGRAM TO $24B

    But…

    • *BOJ MAINTAINS POLICY BALANCE RATE AT MINUS 0.100%
    • *BOJ BOARD VOTES 7-2 TO KEEP NEG RATE UNCHANGED
    • *BOJ MAINTAINS MONETARY BASE TARGET AT 80T YEN

    Finally, details are emerging of the stimulus package, NHK reporting:

    • ~7.5t yen of fiscal spending
    • ~6t for fiscal investment and loan financing program
    • 15,000 yen handouts for low-income people
    • 10.7t yen for infrastructure spending such as maglev line, ports
    • 10.9t in SME support to weather Brexit

    And most fascinatingly…

    • *KURODA ORDERS ASSESSMENT OF POLICY EFFECTIVENESS NEXT MEETING

    Raising doubts about the whole house of cards.

    So to summarize, Kuroda left rates unchanged, left QE unchanged, implicitly raised doubts about the effectiveness of the world's monetray policy machinations.. and increased the stock market ETF buying to make sure that the illusion of normality is maintained.

    As we noted this afternoon, the worst case for Yen shorts would be if the BOJ simply does what both the ECB and the Fed did in recent days and punts to September.. and sure enough: markets are unahppy…

     

    JGB Futures are crashing most sicne 2013…

     

    As 2Y Yields soar…

     

    Yen strength is weighing on US equity futures through the carry trade and gold is jumping…

    As one twitter-er noted so eloquently: US equities have rallied for weeks in part on BOJ expectations. Now nothing much, oil on its knees, earnings neg (still).. ok good luck buying

    *  *  *

    As we detailed earlier, before the statement, 32 of 41 analysts (the most in 3 years) expected an expansion of QQE2 shifting to ETFs (because that worked so well), but surprises will be hard to come by…

    “It’s Kuroda — you can’t underestimate what he is going to do,” said Yasuhide Yajima, chief economist at NLI Research Institute. “What’s certain is that Kuroda has to do something extreme or unthinkable if he wants to surprise.”

    2Y JGB yields were screaming for moar….

     

    JGBs had been halted…

    And FX market liquidity disappeared..

    Total chaos. Nikkei Futs crash 600 points instantly…

    *  *  *

    Morgan Stanley economists Robert Feldman, Takeshi Yamaguchi and Shoki Omori, writing in the firm's Global Macro Summer Outlook, say Japan's policy approach is having weak short-term impact:

    "The BOJ’s negative interest rate policy (NIRP) has bull-flattened the yield curve, but has yet to improve the economy or prices; indeed NIRP may have worsened inflation expectations, and started a credit crunch for small businesses."

    The spectrum of forecasts includes a boost to government bond buying to as much as 100 trillion yen a year — up from 80 trillion, quadrupling exchange-traded fund buying and cutting the policy interest rate to -0.3 percent. A more radical option: a pledge to maintain the BOJ’s balance sheet in its forward guidance.

    Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government has added pressure for bolstering monetary stimulus at this meeting. Abe in a surprise announced his economic package on Wednesday, which economists including Daiju Aoki saw as an intention to pressure the central bank by showing the government it is doing what it can to spur growth.

    So this was a big disappointment.

    Some may see it as a step toward hitting policy limits, with growing concerns about the sustainability of the easing program. There’s a limit to the amount of bonds in the market and the faster the BOJ buys them, the sooner it hits the ceiling. The size of the BOJ’s balance sheet is now more than 80 percent of Japan’s gross domestic product.

     

     

    Charts: Bloomberg

  • Did The DNC Hire Actors (At Below Minimum Wage) To Work At The Convention?

    Great news… The Democrats are 'creating jobs."

    Following the exposure of a fake Trump job advertisement designed by The DNC to embarrass Trump, it is interesting that a Craigslist ad calling for "Actors Needed for National Convention" has surfaced…

     

    Whether the ad is real or fake is unclear, but the text suggests below minimum wage compensation (7-plus hours work for $50) and the number of walkouts from the Convention indicates perhaps a need for cheering happy seat-fillers…

    Actors Needed For National Convention (Philadelphia)
    compensation: $50.00

     

    Looking for 700 people to be utilized as actors during the National Convention.

     

    We currently have a number of empty seats that will need to be filled as we are currently removing a number of people and need to refill their seats for the remainder of the conference.

     

    You will be paid $50.00 each night for the remainder of the convention. You will be required to cheer at all times and will be asked to dress properly and possibly wear some promotional material.

    Which makes sense if one looks at the following shocking video from film director, Josh Fox, best known for his Oscar-nominated anti-fracking documentary Gasland, captured inside the DNC…

     

    As DailyWire.com reports, Fox tells the camera… "This is amazing, this place is empty. There is nobody left in here. I mean this whole stadium, look at this," as he pans his cellphone to show the lack of cheering Dems.

    He continues in disbelief, adding, "This is not voter enthusiasm…. I can't believe my eyes. I've never seen anything like this. This is the primetime of the Democratic National Convention right after the nomination of Hillary Clinton and this place is emptied out like crazy. I'm stunned."

    "This is insane. The whole California delegation is pretty much gone," he adds. "I mean this has got to be something very worrisome for the Democrats. Voter enthusiasm wins elections."

    The director goes on to explain that the states that Hillary won got seating up close to the stage and the Bernie state delegates were sent up to the cheap seats.

    Is it then totally surprising that The DNC needed to hire 'seat-fillers'?

    *  *  *

    And here is proof:

  • Exposing Hillbama's Big Lie: The Central Issue In The U.S. Presidential Campaign

    Authored by Eric Zuesse via The Saker,

    The central issue in the U.S. Presidential campaign can’t even be discussed in U.S. newsmedia, because America’s media have been almost uniformly complicit all along in hiding from the American public the crucial factual information that’s necessary in order for the public to vote in an intelligent and truthfully informed way about it. No news medium wants to report its own having been complicit in anything; so, the cover-up here just continues; it has a life of its own, even though it’s a life that brings the world closer and closer to a situation which would kill billions of people, as things get increasingly out-of-control the longer this coverup continues. The cycle of virtually uniform lying thus persists, despite the growing danger it produces. This article will need to be lengthy, because the American public have been almost consistently lied-to about so many very important things — things associated with the nation’s central issue — an issue even bigger than terrorism, and than global warming, and than rising economic inequality and corruption, but which is still virtually ignored. This article is thus intended to be ‘Drano’ for a political system that has become clogged by lies just jammed down into it, now backing up and pouring out onto America’s political floor. The overflowing sludge has got to be cleaned up, and discarded. Or else — and very suddenly — it will kill us all.

    This central issue is whether or not to continue to move forward with the American government’s plan, ever since the Soviet Union and its military alliance the Warsaw Pact ended in 1991, to extend NATO — the anti-Russia military club — right up to Russia’s borders, surround Russia with NATO nuclear missiles a mere five minutes flight-time to Moscow, and simultaneously build a “Ballistic Missile Defense” or “Anti Ballistic Missile” (BMD or ABM) system to nullify Russia’s retaliatory missiles against an unannounced blitz U.S.-NATO invasion to take over, if not totally eliminate, Russia and its resistance to U.S. power. This operation is an ugly reality, but it is an American-led reality, and the outcome of the 2016 U.S. Presidential election will bring it into its final stage, either by ending it, or by culminating it — two drastically different outcomes, but one side or the other will prevail in this political contest, and the present article links to the documentation that America’s voters will need to be aware of that shows not only that they’ve been lied-to, but how and why they’ve been lied-to. The documentation is all-important, especially because the facts that are being documented have been hidden so successfully for so long. This is not a world that Americans want to know, but it is a world that especially the few Americans who are in control, don’t want the American public to know. That’s a toxic combination (public ignorance, which the people in control want to continue), but it is tragically real (as the documentation here will make clear).

    U.S. President Barack Obama has stated, on many occasions, that the U.S. is the only “indispensable” country, and that any country which refuses to capitulate to American global supremacy is an enemy. This applies especially to Russia and to China — two formerly communist nations. Thus, the ‘Cold War’ is being resumed, and U.S. arms-makers are booming again, even though the ideological excuse (the “red scare,” communism) is now gone.

    For example, Obama told graduating cadets at West Point, on 28 May 2014:

    “The United States is and remains the one indispensable nation. That has been true for the century passed and it will be true for the century to come. … Russia’s aggression toward former Soviet states unnerves capitals in Europe, while China’s economic rise and military reach worries its neighbors. From Brazil to India, rising middle classes compete with us, and governments seek a greater say in global forums. … It will be your generation’s task to respond to this new world. The question we face, the question each of you will face, is not whether America will lead, but how we will lead — not just to secure our peace and prosperity, but also extend peace and prosperity around the globe.”

    He was telling West Point graduates there, that economic competition can become a cause for America to go to war, and that America’s global supremacy is their job to enforce.

    Obama placed this into a moralizing framework, as he always so skillfully does (for propaganda-purposes; he’s terrifically gifted at that), by saying to those cadets:

    America’s willingness to apply force around the world is the ultimate safeguard against chaos, and America’s failure to act in the face of Syrian brutality or Russian provocations not only violates our conscience, but invites escalating aggression in the future. … In the 21st century American isolationism is not an option. We don’t have a choice to ignore what happens beyond our borders. … As the Syrian civil war spills across borders, the capacity of battle-hardened extremist groups to come after us only increases. Regional aggression that goes unchecked — whether in southern Ukraine or the South China Sea, or anywhere else in the world — will ultimately impact our allies and could draw in our military. We can’t ignore what happens beyond our boundaries. And beyond these narrow rationales, I believe we have a real stake, an abiding self-interest, in making sure our children and our grandchildren grow up in a world where schoolgirls are not kidnapped and where individuals are not slaughtered because of tribe or faith or political belief. I believe that a world of greater freedom and tolerance is not only a moral imperative, it also helps to keep us safe.”

    He was equating there the imposition of American control, as being “a world of greater freedom and tolerance,” which “helps to keep us safe.” Was it that, and did it do that, in Iraq? What about in Libya? What did it do for Ukraine? Is it really doing that in Syria? What about all of the refugees that are pouring out of all of those countries, which are being ‘saved’ by Obama’s policy, which has been America’s policy for decades, and which is not challenged, and which is bipartisan in every regard except for the style of lying rhetoric that’s being used to ‘justify’ it?

    Obama’s predecessor in office, George W. Bush, was working on the same plan, when he invaded Iraq in 2003. His allegations that he was certain that Saddam Hussein was rebuilding his nuclear-weapons program, and saying against “Saddam’s WMD program” that “a report came out of the Atomic — the IAEA that they were six months away from developing a weapon. I don’t know what more evidence we need”, all of it were just bald lies from him, because all of it was false, and he knew that it was false. He knew that there was no such ‘IAEA’ ‘report’. And the press didn’t even challenge him on it, but instead just parroted the President’s lies as if they should automatically be taken as truths. (And the press also hid the IAEA’s immediate announcement that there was no such report.) It’s happening again, but the stakes this time are even more dangerous.

    We’re going into a Presidential election, in which one candidate, Hillary Clinton, clearly wants to continue the policy that has been in place since 1990 (and which her husband played a major role in), and in which the other candidate, Donald Trump, wants to stop it  — he says we should end it. So, he is accused of being a ‘Soviet agent’. The same aristocracy that own the ‘news’ media and that control both of the political Parties, is being threatened by Trump’s repudiation of their program. They use moralisms — rightist ones for Republicans, and leftist ones for Democrats — to condemn him, but the real reason they are determined to defeat him is to continue their war which (on its U.S. side) never really was against communism; it was always a war for global conquest, global control; that’s how America’s controllers have been controlling this country since at least 1990. They want to continue it, though it’s heading all of us toward disaster.

    In support of this aggressive agenda — a metastatically cancerous NATO — Obama in 2014 perpetrated a very bloody Ukrainian coup (propagandized as ‘democracy demonstrations’), carried out by U.S.-paid rabid racist-anti-Russian fascists, nazis actually (and from a tradition in Ukraine that descended from the pro-Hitler, anti-Stalin, side of Ukraine during World War II — the side that did Ukraine’s pogroms, etc.) and which had been allied with the Axis powers during WW II — but that now were in the pay of the U.S. government.

    Some of the top members of Congress who have responsibility over foreign affairs refuse even to become acquainted with the evidence disproving the U.S. government’s lies on this. Elizabeth Murray was shocked to find in government officials, this intentional refusal to see evidence. She had served as Deputy National Intelligence Officer for the Near East in the National Intelligence Council before retiring after a 27-year career in the U.S. government. (She should be the head of the CIA.) On 24 July 2016, in an article titled “Rep. Rick Larsen Bases Russia Policy on Myth”, she described her efforts to inform congressman Larsen about the reality of the U.S. operation in Ukraine. Wikipedia says: “Richard Ray ‘Rick’ Larsen is the United States Representative for Washington’s 2nd congressional district and a member of the Democratic Party. … Larsen is a member of the House Armed Services Committee and the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee. … He formerly worked as director of public affairs for the Washington State Dental Association and as a lobbyist for the dental profession. … the Second District was represented by future U.S. Senator Henry M. ‘Scoop’ Jackson between 1941 and 1953.” (Jackson later became famous as “the Senator from Boeing,” the first of the Democratic Party neoconservatives.)

    Murray wrote (and the links here are added by me):

    I mentioned to Rep. Larsen that I had just returned from Russia with a U.S. delegation, and that all the people in Russia I had spoken with — including teachers, students, journalists, medical doctors, entrepreneurs and war veterans — had no desire for a nuclear war with the United States, but instead expressed the wish for peaceful, normalized relations . . . During our time in Yalta, I had organized a ‘swim for peace’ with Americans and Russian war vets swimming together in the Black Sea, which had caused quite a stir in local Russian language media. I explained to Rep. Larsen my understanding of why the Russian public is suspicious about U.S. moves in the region (based on what I heard from people there), and why they would expect the United States to be the first to make a unilateral confidence-building measure in the direction of nuclear disarmament. Russians were savvy to the Nuland ‘Yats’ youtube recording (in which Victoria Nuland is distinctly heard telling U.S. ambassador to Ukraine Geoffrey Pyatt that ‘Yats is the guy’ just prior to the regime change in which Arseniy Yatsenyuk became prime minister, and which directly implicated the U.S. in the Ukrainian coup), felt threatened by the recent NATO/Operation Anakonda maneuvers that took place during our delegation’s visit, and were extremely concerned about other provocative U.S. moves in the region, including economic sanctions on Russia and Crimea, the latter enacted after a majority of Crimeans voted to rejoin Russia in response to what they saw as outside interference in the affairs of Ukraine.

    Larsen immediately responded with rebuttals, stating flat-out he didn’t believe there was a U.S. role in the Ukrainian events — that what I’d just told him was ‘not what I’ve been hearing’ – and he went on to talk about how the Baltic states felt threatened by Russia, etc. He didn’t know what ‘Operation Anakonda’ was and seemed unaware that the largest-ever NATO military maneuvers since WWII had just taken place on Russia’s borders. I offered to send his office additional information about that and the Ukrainian events – an offer he ignored.

    The path we’re on can end only in one of two ways: Either the U.S. ‘news’ media will get real and start reporting the crucial realities (such as that the aggression in Ukraine wasn’t Putin’s ‘seizure’ of Crimea but the immediately prior coup — and its necessary ethnic cleansing afterwards — by Obama’s hirees, which started being organized by him no later than 1 March 2013, and which culminated nearly a year later), these being the crucial realities that contradict the official lies and thus might (if we’re extremely lucky) compel the U.S. government to reverse its present course; or else, there will be a surprise blitz attack by U.S.-NATO against Russia, or else by Russia against U.S.-NATO. The closer we get to the end of this matter, the more difficult the former option becomes, and the more inevitable the latter option — a blitz attack (by either side) — becomes. That’s the reality.

    Obama’s ‘mono-polar world’ is a fiction, and the sooner that he and his Big Lie can be exposed (by the Western press, to the Western publics), the safer everyone will be. Discomforts on the parts of those who have promulgated and propagandized that lie will be vastly less than the disastrous alternative, which would destroy the world for everyone.

    *  *  *

    Investigative historian Eric Zuesse is the author, most recently, of  They’re Not Even Close: The Democratic vs. Republican Economic Records, 1910-2010, and of  CHRIST’S VENTRILOQUISTS: The Event that Created Christianity.

  • Pokemon 'No': Nintendo Suffers Worst Week In 27 Years

    After admitting to investors last Friday (after the close) that they won’t be able to rely on Pokemon Go to bolster profits, the company came clean this week that a widely anticipated accessory for the blockbuster app will be delayed until September. The effect is simple – Nintendo shares are down 27% this week – the worst week since Aug 1989 (when the exuberance over Super Famicom died).

    Thanks to this double Pokemon “no,” Nintendo has lost over $14 billion of market capitalization in the last week.

     

     

    As Bloomberg details, Pokemon Go Plus, a 3,500 yen ($33) Bluetooth gadget that helps users detect nearby virtual pocket monsters, was supposed to be Nintendo’s one measurable benefit from the explosive popularity of the game. It was set to go on sale in Japan this week, until Nintendo, Pokemon Co. and developer Niantic Inc. pushed back the accessory’s debut.

    In addition, the delay will probably force analysts to adjust their estimates, which were already in disarray because of the lack of clarity over how Pokemon Go will impact the company’s bottom line. Nintendo maintained its outlook for 35 billion yen in profit for the current fiscal year when it reported earnings shortly after announcing the delay.

     

    “The delay is disappointing, especially since it’s just a Bluetooth accessory that has already been available for pre-order,” said Atul Goyal, an analyst at Jefferies Group. “The sales will still accrue to Nintendo with a delay. Just as all eyes turn to Nintendo, the company’s management can’t seem to get their communication right.”

     

    Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co. estimated that Pokemon Go Plus would add 45 billion yen in sales and 8.2 billion yen in income to Nintendo for the current fiscal year, based on its original sale date. Analysts at Bank of America Corp. were predicting an extra 10.5 billion yen in profit.

     

    “Is Nintendo really not even capable of producing a low-end accessory these days?,” said Serkan Toto, founder of consultant Kantan Games Inc. “It has now delayed the launch to a time when at least the initial hype around the game will definitely be over. In contrast to Pokemon Go earnings, Nintendo would have pocketed most of the margin for the device.”

     

    While the Pokemon Go Plus delay was announced in Japan and the U.S., it wasn’t clear what the impact would be in other places where the game has debuted.

    Maybe The Bank of Japan will buy them? Stranger things have happened.

  • USDJPY Plunges Again

    Japanese ‘markets’ are total disaster tonight…

    Liquidity is gone… as another 104.00 run breaks…

    Yen futures again show the surge in volume…

    “There was no visible news, but markets are nervous ahead of the BOJ meeting,” said Yuji Saito, Tokyo-based head of the foreign-exchange department at Credit Agricole SA.

    This siwhat happens when everything becomes binary – based on a handful of ivory tower academics fumbling in the dark.

  • Democrats Hacked Again: FBI Probing "Cyber Intrusion" At Fundraising Group

    Those pesky Russian hackers are working overtime.

    According to Reuters, the FBI is probing a “cyber intrusion” at yet another Democratic organization, this time the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) which may or may not be related to an earlier hack at the Democratic National Committee. The previously unreported incident at the DCCC, which raises money for Democrats running for seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, is said to have been intended to gather information about Democratic donors.

    We anticipate another media freakout, one which again blames the Kremlin, is imminent. As Reuters puts it, “the breach and its potential ties to Russian hackers are likely to sharpen concern, so far unproven, that Moscow is attempting to meddle in U.S. elections. The issue has clouded this week’s Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia.”

    The DCCC intrusion could have begun as recently as June, two of the sources told Reuters. That was when a spoof website was registered with a name closely resembling that of a main donation site connected to the DCCC. For some time, Internet traffic associated with donations that was supposed to go to a company that processes campaign donations instead went to the spoof site, two sources said. How this went on as long as it did is unclear: perhaps in addition to having problems with “email”, the Democratic party is simply unable to keep keep up with modern technology.

    Sure enough, a Russian “trail” has emerged quickly. Reuters’ sources said the Internet Protocol address of the spurious site resembled one used by a Russian government-linked hacking group, one of two such groups suspected in the breach of the DNC, the nationwide strategy setting and money-raising body for the Democratic Party.

    The DCCC had no immediate comment. Donation processing company ActBlue had no immediate comment.

    Reuters adds that the FBI referred questions to a statement it made on Monday on the DNC hack: “The FBI is investigating a cyber intrusion involving the DNC and are working to determine the nature and scope of the matter. A compromise of this nature is something we take very seriously, and the FBI will continue to investigate and hold accountable those who pose a threat in cyberspace.”

    While private cyber experts and the government were aware of the DNC hack months ago, embarrassing emails were leaked last weekend by the WikiLeaks anti-secrecy group just as the party prepared to anoint Hillary Clinton as its presidential candidate for the Nov. 8 election. 

    The revelation of the DCCC breach is likely to further stoke concerns among Democratic Party operatives, many of whom have acknowledged they fear further dumps of hacked files that could harm their candidates. WikiLeaks has said it has more material related to the U.S. election that it intends to release.

    While fingers will surely point to Russia, earlier today Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said the U.S. intelligence community was not ready to “make the call on attribution” as to who was responsible for the DNC hack. The White House said earlier the FBI had not disclosed any information about who was behind the hack.

    Clapper, speaking at the Aspen Security Forum, acknowledged that “there’s just a few usual suspects out there” who might be responsible for the cyber intrusion, suggesting it was the work of a state actor rather than an independent hacking group.

     

    Russian officials have dismissed the allegations of Moscow’s involvement. “It is so absurd it borders on total stupidity,” said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.

    So far nobody has claimed responsibility.

  • DNC Grand Finale: Ladies Night, Hillary Unleashed (And Katy Perry!) – Live Feed

    It's the day everyone has been waiting for – Ladies' night. The grand finale of four days of Democratic dreamery as Kary Perry takes the stage (after Barbara Mikulski – the first woman elected to the Senate). The night will be capped off by Chelsea Clinton introducing her mother – the first female nominee for President from a major party (Victoria Woodhill was first female nominee in 1872).

     

     

    Live Feed (due to 'gavel in' at 1630ET)…

    As The Hill reports,  Clinton will formally accept the Democratic presidential nomination on the final night of the party’s national convention in Philadelphia Thursday night. Campaign manager Bobby Mook said the former secretary of State will “stitch together” the themes from the first three nights of the convention.

    Clinton will make the case that she’s a fighter for working-class Americans and dismiss Trump as a representative of the “ultra-wealthy” who has stepped all over the middle class on his way to the top.

     

    She’ll frame herself as a natural leader with the “steadiness” Americans can count on and frame Trump as erratic and reckless.

     

    And Clinton will look to highlight the stakes of the election and how she will protect the “values” the nation was founded on against what she sees as a threat from Trump, whom Democrats view as a divisive and dangerous figure.

     

    “Hillary is going to stitch together each of these themes and talk about how this election is really a moment of reckoning for voters,” Mook said. “Are we going to succumb to some very powerful forces that are tearing at our social fabric, that are dividing us economically and socially? Or are we going to come together to solve these problems?”

     

    Clinton will return to the theme of her 1996 book about how it “takes a village” to build a strong society.

     

    The 2016 spin on that theme is how “we are stronger together,” Mook said.

     

    The campaign will be looking to highlight the historic nature of Clinton’s nomination as she becomes the first female standard-bearer for a major political party in the U.S.

    *  *  *

    The big question is – can she trump Trump's longest acceptance speech ever?

    Trump's speech clocked in at about an hour and 15 minutes, by various counts, making it the longest of any acceptance speeches in the last four decades.  Trump's speech was as long as Mitt Romney's and Barack Obama's speeches combined in 2012.

    *  *  *

    Today's tentative schedule:

    Thursday, July 28

    The session begins at 4:30 p.m.

    • Henrietta Ivey, a Michigan home care worker who advocates for a $15 an hour minimum wage.
    • Beth Mathias of Ohio, who works two jobs
    • Jensen Walcott and Jake Reed. Walcott was fired from her job in Bonner Springs, Kan., for asking why her co-worker, and friend,  Reed, made more than she did for the same job
    • Khizr Khan, whose son, , Humayun S. M. Khan, is one of 14 American Muslims killed after 9/11 serving in the U.S. Armed Forces
    • Retired Marine Corps Gen. John Allen, who commanded U.S. forces in Afghanistan
    • Candidates of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee
    • Human Rights Campaign President Chad Griffin
    • League of Conservation Voters President Gene Karpinski
    • Rep. Sea Patrick Maloney of New York, co-chair of the Congressional LGBT Equality Caucus, and LGBT rights activist Sarah McBride
    • U.S. Sen. Barbara Mikulski of Maryland and Democratic women of the Senate
    • Chelsea Clinton, Clinton's daughter
    • Former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Democratic nominee

    The spin all wek has been dramatic, media watchers are getting whiplash as the liberal media desperately attempt to distract from the leaked emails content to the conspiracy theory that Trump and Putin did it…

    h/t @Mark412NH

  • Japanese Bond Futures Halted Without Warning

    At 2051ET, Japanese government bond futures suddenly halted trading. There was no limit moves or sudden surge in volume and the Osaka Excchange has confirmed it is investigatingthe reasons for the halt. Following the earlier flash-crash in USDJPY, one wonders just what is going on.. and what is coming?

    • *TOKYO EXCHANGE CONFIRMS HALT OCCURRED IN 10-YR JGB FUTURES

     

    And sure nough once everyone started to look:

    • *JGB FUTURES RESUMED; HALT BETWEEN 9:51 TO 10:12 A.M. TOKYO

    Following this week’s terrible tail in the 2Y JGB auction, and repeated claims by primary dealers that BoJ had killedthe JGB market, it is unsurprising that such a ‘glitch’ could happen… but within an hour of the biggest BoJ announcement in history is too suspicious.

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Today’s News 28th July 2016

  • Trump And The End Of NATO?

    Submitted by Finian Cunningham via Strategic-Culture.org,

    If Donald Trump is elected US president it will spell the end of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. At least, that’s how a phalanx of US foreign policy pundits and establishment figures see it. Trump once again caused uproar recently with comments that were viewed as undermining a «cornerstone» of US foreign policy since the Second World War.

    Ahead of accepting official nomination as the Republican party presidential candidate, the billionaire property magnate told the New York Times in an interview that, if elected, he would not automatically deploy American military forces to defend another member of NATO if it were attacked.

    As the NYT noted Trump’s conditionality regarding NATO was the first time any senior American politician has uttered such a radical change in policy. It overturns «American cornerstone policy of the past 70 years».

    Trump was asked whether he would defend Eastern European countries if they were attacked by Russia.

    (Hypothetical, propagandistic nonsense, but let’s bear with the argument for the underlying logic that it exposes.)

    Trump did not give the customary automatic, unconditional «yes» response. Rather, he said he would have to first review whether these countries had fulfilled their «obligations to us». If they had, then, he said, US forces would defend. If they hadn’t lived up to past financial commitments to NATO, then the inference was that a would-be President Trump would not order troops to defend.

    The reaction to Trump’s comments was explosive. NATO’s civilian chief, Jens Stoltenberg, was evidently perplexed by Trump’s equivocal attitude. «Solidarity among allies is a key value for NATO», said the former Norwegian prime minister. «This is good for European security and good for US security. We defend one another».

    Stoltenberg was just one of the many pro-NATO figures on both sides of the Atlantic who stampeded to slam Trump for his comments.

    The rightwing American Enterprise Institute, the Council on Foreign Relations, and senior foreign policy makers within the Republican and Democrat parties all unanimously berated Trump over his views on NATO. Estonian and Latvian political leaders also expressed deep anxiety on what they saw as a withdrawal by the US from Europe’s security.

    Reuters reported a joint letter from a US bi-partisan group of «national security» experts who condemned Trump’s «inflammatory remarks» for not representing the «core interests» of the United States.

    «The strength of our alliances is at the core of those interests», said the group. «The United States must uphold the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s commitments to all of our allies, including Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania».

    Reuters also quoted a former US ambassador to the alliance as saying that Trump’s policy means: «It’s the end of NATO».

    Robert Hunter, who was NATO envoy under President Bill Clinton, added: «The essence of NATO, more than any other single factor, is the commitment of the United States of America to the security of the other 27 members».

    The Los Angeles Times quoted former NATO supreme commander, US General Wesley Clark, as saying that Trump’s stance «undercuts NATO’s deterrence in Europe». Clark said that the comments showed that Trump has a fundamental misunderstanding of how the alliance works. «It will mean the end of the European Union and the collapse of the US’s largest trading partner».

    The former NATO military chief also made the snide comment that Russian leader Vladimir Putin would be «happy» with Trump’s shift in defense policy. As did Hillary Clinton’s senior policy advisor, Jake Sullivan, who made the inane assertion that «Putin would be rooting for Trump» to win the November presidential election.

    It is not the first time that Donald Trump has shown an irreverent disregard for NATO and other military partnerships which have been the hallmark of US foreign policy since World War Two. Previously, during the Republican primaries in March, the presidential contender told the Washington Post he would withdraw US troops from Japan, South Korea and the Middle East if regional allies did not shoulder more of the defense burden in terms of boosting financial contributions.

    Trump says that his view of drawing down overseas American military forces is part of his «America First» policy. He told the New York Times this policy means: «We are going to take care of this country first before we worry about everyone else in the world».

    In a certain sense, Trump’s worldview is laudable. Given the immense challenges for fixing the US economy, impoverished communities, post-industrial unemployment and crumbling infrastructure, of course it does not make sense for the US to maintain over 1,000 military bases overseas in over 100 countries.

    And, as Trump has pointed out, it is the US that pays the lion’s share of the budget for its military partnerships. In the 28-member NATO alliance, the US pays 70-75 per cent of the entire budget.

    But here is where Trump gets it fundamentally wrong. His premise of the United States functioning as a benevolent protector is misplaced. If that were the case then, yes, Trump’s point about the arrangement being «unfair» would be valid.

    However, NATO and the US’s other military umbrellas in Asia-Pacific and the Middle East, are not motivated primarily about maintaining security and peace. These military pacts are all about providing the US with a political, legal and moral rationale for intervening its forces in key geopolitical regions. The massive expenditure by the US on military alliances is really all about maintaining Washington’s hegemony over allies and perceived enemies alike. The reality is that America’s «defense» pacts are more a source of relentless tensions and conflicts. Europe and the South China Sea are testimony to that if we disabuse the notional pretensions otherwise.

    In all the heated reaction to Trump’s latest comments on NATO the over-riding assumption is that the United States is a force for good, law and order and peace.

    Under the headline «Trump NATO plan would be sharp break with decades-long US policy», this Reuters reportage belies the false indoctrination of what US and NATO’s purpose is actually about. It reports: «Republican foreign policy veterans and outside experts warned that the suggestion by Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump that he might abandon NATO’s pledge to automatically defend all alliance members could destroy an organization that has helped keep the peace for 66 years and could invite Russian aggression».

    Really? Maintaining peace for 66 years? Not if you live in former Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, or Ukraine and Syria where NATO powers have been covertly orchestrating and sponsoring conflicts.

    Also note the unquestioned insinuation by Reuters that without NATO that would «invite Russian aggression».

    If we return to the original question posed by the New York Times, which sparked the flurry of pro-NATO reaction, the newspaper put it to Trump like this:

    «Asked about Russia’s threatening activities, which have unnerved the small Baltic States that are among the more recent entrants into NATO, Mr Trump said that if Russia attacked them, he would decide whether to come to their aid only after reviewing if those nations have fulfilled their obligations to us».

    The NY Times, like so many NATO advocates who went apoplectic over Trump, is constructing its argument on an entirely false and illusory premise of «Russia’s threatening activities».

    Unfortunately, it seems, Trump bought into this false premise by answering the question, even though his conditional answer has set off a firestorm among NATO and Western foreign policy establishments. Can you imagine the reaction if he had, instead, rebutted the false assertion about there even being Russian aggression?

    But this fabrication of «Russian threat» is an essential part of the wider fabrication about what the US-led NATO alliance is really functioning for. It is not about defending «the free world» from Russian or Soviet «aggression», or, for that matter, from Iranian, Chinese, North Korean, or Islamic terrorist threats. In short, NATO and US military «protection» has got nothing to do with defense and peace. It is about protecting American corporate profits and hegemony.

    Ever since its inception in 1949 by the US under President Truman, NATO is a construct that serves to project American presence and power around the world, as well as propping up its taxpayer-subsidized military-industrial complex. The most geopolitically vital theatre is Europe, where the European nations must be kept divided from any form of normal political and economic relations with Russia. If that were to happen, American hegemonic power, as we know it, is over. That’s what the alarmism among the NATO advocates over Trump is really about.

    Trump’s declared aim of withdrawing US forces from overseas and of cutting down NATO is admirable, even if his reasoning is faulty and imbued with false notions of American benevolence.

    If he were to implement such policies, then indeed the American facade of NATO might well collapse. Which would be an immeasurably good thing for restoring peaceful international relations, especially with regard to Europe and Russia, despite what the reactionary, rightwing Russophobic European states might say.

    But here’s the thing. Trump does not seem to understand how deeply important NATO or US militarism elsewhere around the globe are to American hegemony under its corporate capitalist system. If and when he does actually try to implement his policy, he will encounter formidable forces that he probably isn’t aware of yet.

    Without a massive popular mobilization, Trump will not be allowed to implement such a challenge to the foundational premise of modern American power. The US military-industrial-intelligence complex will see to that.

    The last American president who tried to rein in the corporate power of US militarism was John F Kennedy. He was assassinated on November 22, 1963, in broad daylight by the CIA-Pentagon and their contract killers. And for 53 years, the entire American media and law enforcement establishments have brazenly covered up that shocking truth in the fashion of a «ministry of truth».

    Potentially, Trump’s stance on NATO is damaging to the military alliance, and could even precipitate a terminal decline. That is why the reaction to his comments has been so fierce, and is also why he won’t be allowed to get away with such a policy if he is elected.

    This is not meant, however, to sound defeatist. Of course, US militarism and its war-mongering imperialist foreign policy could be overturned. American hegemony is not divinely ordained. But such a radical, fundamental change in direction will require a massive popular movement among ordinary Americans. It will not be achieved on the basis of one fiery politician’s words.

  • The Law Of The Jungle Is Far Superior To The Ideology Of Globalism

    Submitted by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

    In 1991 George Bush Sr., in at least two separate speeches, announced an active geopolitical endgame for global stability; something he called the “New World Order.” This was not the first time the concept of the NWO had been uttered by a prominent figure. Fabian socialist H.G. Welles wrote an entire book on the ideology decades before, in 1940, entitled 'The New World Order', and even scripted a thinly veiled propaganda film on the rise of globalism titled 'Things To Come'. The core of this ideology is the institution of global governance and the erasure of sovereign nation states, ostensibly in order to end the persistent threat of world war.

    It all sounds very noble on the surface, but there is much more to total globalization that the elites do not discuss very openly or very often.

    A key quote from Bush’s White House speech to the nation on the eve of Operation Desert Storm in Iraq explains much behind the NWO concept:

    “We have before us the opportunity to forge for ourselves and for future generations a new world order — a world where the rule of law, not the law of the jungle, governs the conduct of nations. When we are successful — and we will be — we have a real chance at this new world order, an order in which a credible United Nations can use its peacekeeping role to fulfill the promise and vision of the U.N.’s founders.”

    The questions are, what did he mean by the “rule of law,” and what did he mean by the “law of the jungle?” As Bush clarifies further, the “rule of law” in his mind is the law as enforced by a globalist governing body (i.e. the UN). The “law of the jungle” would invariably be everything that represents the opposite of globalism (i.e. wild and unshackled sovereignty).

    The "law of the jungle" sounds harsh and unforgiving, and it is, for people who do not pursue greater imperatives and who do not work hard to reach their ultimate potential.  This idea is often misconstrued as "fascist" in its origins.  That is to say, people commonly assume the law of the jungle is merely the subjugation of the weak by the strong.  This is how the globalists WANT you to view sovereignty, national or tribal identity, individualism, etc.; they want you to see these principles as akin to savagery.

    In truth, it is the elites that promote savagery as the core of globalism, though it is to be sure a highly sterilized and scientific form of savagery. Their "rule of law" is entirely arbitrary – it is not based in the light of  conscience, but on darker desires of artificial advantage for the ruling class and the oppression of everyone else.  A better interpretation of the law of the jungle would be that it is a more colorful description of "natural law", the inborn right of self determination guided by inherent conscience.  Under natural law, bureaucratic governance serves little purpose.  It becomes obsolete.

    While the law of the jungle is not easy or carefree or eternally "safe", I think there are many virtues to a “natural”, unfettered and decentralized way of life far above the mindless homogenization and collectivism of the globalist ideal.

    Here are just a few examples on why humanity would be much better off living wild and free rather than living an inhibited and micromanaged existence under a global authority.

    Surviving In The Jungle Requires Strength And Intelligence

    A shallow interpretation of the law of the jungle would argue that “only the strong survive.” Collectivists would claim that this is unfair to the weak and ultimately barbaric in principle. I disagree. The assumption these people make is that the “weak” cannot improve their circumstances and therefore require constant babysitting by a central authority. However, if you actually allow people to be challenged rather than coddled, it can be surprising how strong they become.

    Globalism destroys the environmental conditions that inspire excellence and instead rewards and protects mediocrity. Take for example the problems regarding “too big to fail” banks; these institutions are really failures in every respect and, like wounded gazelles, should be given a quick death. But under the theory of globalization the strategy has (so far) been to keep these failures limping along. In other words, the incentive for success has been undermined and weakness has been rewarded.

    In this way, not just in the business world but also in the social world, globalism encourages people to accomplish as little as possible and comforts them with promises of being forever nurtured by the global nanny state. If this kind of world becomes an absolute, society will decay and revert to something subhuman. All evolutionary progress will be lost.

    Surviving In The Jungle Requires Merit

    You have to be useful in the jungle; you have to produce, repair or teach something truly valuable. You have to build. You have to innovate. You have to invent. You have put in the effort to take control of your destiny. You have to prove your merit if you want to thrive. Under globalism, none of this behavior is really necessary or rewarded.

    One of the early phases of collectivism, as it establishes its control base, is to forcefully “equalize” all existing elements. This means that collectivist societies often oppress the naturally successful and debase a population until they all meet the same standards of the lowest common denominator.

    The small but vocal movement of social justice cultists in the West is a perfect example of the collectivist narrative inherent in globalism. If any movement embodies anti-merit, it is the social justice warriors.

    The social justice presumption of life is that all human beings must be treated as if they have merit, and this is often based on their level of victim status rather than their accomplishments. For example, in my article “Why Conscripting Women Into Combat Will Result In Cultural Disaster,” I outlined the outright progressive dismantling of U.S. military training standards in order to open the door for far weaker females to enter active combat units. Superior merit is being systematically removed from the military in order to make way for homogenization based on mediocrity. And while the law of the jungle does not call for a standing military, the fact remains that the loss of merit will invariably lead to a weaker military overall.

    I have even seen SJW men argue that they must promote the lowest common denominator under movements like feminism because in a culture based on merit, they personally would have no chance at survival. They claim they are too weak to undertake traditional male roles of production and protection and thus opt for the laziness and safety of the collective rather than bettering themselves. In the jungle, the willfully useless would be quickly eaten, or they would die simply due to their own stupidity and sloth; and I have to say, I’m not so sure that’s a bad thing.

    When you give the least successful people the keys to the foundation of your society you discourage the truly successful from pursuing further excellence. The goal for a person who really wants to make their way in such a world would then be to gain as much victim status as possible in order to get the most rewards. Merit becomes superfluous.

    Under globalism, this SJW nightmare would achieve world-wide recognition and political promotion.

    Survival In The Jungle Requires The Will For Self Defense

    The globalist ideal is rooted in pacifism. That is to say aggressive defense by the average individual is treated as either unscrupulous or futile. Why learn how to protect your own life and the lives of others when you can keep your hands clean and have the establishment do it for you? Why not support global governance, end the law of the jungle and put an armed sentry and surveillance camera on every street corner to ward off potential predators? Why not trade all self determination for the promise of endless comfort and a carefree existence?

    The problem is, as we have seen in numerous instances in highly self-defense-restricted environments in Europe, the state cannot and will never be able to fulfill its empty promises of constant protection. At bottom, the only promise the authorities can keep is that they will quickly clean up the mess left behind by your corpse after an attack has already occurred. And, as we have seen in other instances in the U.S., the authorities are sometimes also the assailants.

    In the jungle, there are no pacifists. They are all dead, or they have converted to a self defense mindset. Pacifists therefore need a collectivist herd to blend into so that they can hide, or so that the guy next to them can be eaten while they make their escape.

    Globalism requires the dilution of an actively vigilant population because the philosophy of self defense leads naturally to an appreciation for individual action. Centralized government cannot take control of a citizenry that has the will to strike back on its own against predators.

    Anyone who promotes a pacifist response is merely aiding the predators, and this includes people who promote a pacifist response towards predatory governments. If the average person lived by the law of the jungle rather than waiting for a “civilized” authority to protect them or parcel out the freedoms they were born with as if they were privileges, predatory governments would no longer exist.

    The Law Of The Jungle Requires Freedom In All Things

    You cannot act in the jungle if you are restricted by bureaucracy and collectivist niceties. And if you cannot act freely in the jungle then you will die in the jungle. Therefore, the jungle and the globalist system are mutually exclusive environments.

    This does not mean that in the jungle there are no consequences for taking undue actions that harm others. As in the Libertarian concept of the non-aggression principle, it is far better to leave others alone to pursue their own prosperity, first because it is the right thing to do, but also because they may have means of self defense just as you do. To try to control the lives of others, the thoughts of others, the language of others, the personal associations of others, the property rights of others, is to elicit a justified backlash and the loss of your own life.

    To be a predator in the jungle is not without ample risk, most animals will defend themselves when cornered and an injured predator could end up a dead predator. But to be a predator in a globalist world populated with unarmed sheep means there is little risk, especially when you are sanctioned by the establishment.

    The jungle is a place where meaningful progress serving the individual is essential, for even a jungle tribe is only as strong as the individuals that make up its ranks. The globalist world is a place where meaningful progress is stifled and strong individuals are treated as a threat. Globalism requires a collectivist machine, a hive mind in which the individual is only a piston in the apparatus. Globalism displaces creative thinking in the name of efficiency, and murders innovation.

    A globalist society would be a static society, frozen in an endless cycle of conformity and sameness. The only beneficiaries would be those at the top of the pyramid, who, as in all collectivist ventures, reap the majority of the rewards because they are the people who get to redistribute the wealth of production in any manner they see fit.

    In the jungle, these redistributors would be seen as useless middlemen, parasitic gatekeepers standing in the way of production and prosperity, drinking their share of blood from every transaction and every invention; stealing earned wealth from the successful in order to feed another army of people they have encouraged to also become parasites through the ideology of anti-merit.

    In the jungle, in a free world, people would immediately question why these middlemen posing as authority figures and financiers should exist at all? What purpose do they serve? They certainly have no merit. They are not successful because they are better than anyone else at anything necessary. They are not hunter gatherers, they are not producers, they are not defenders, they are not teachers, and they are not fixers. They feed off the rest of us but they are not active and honest competitors. They are not lions or tigers or bears. They are vicious scavengers. Carrion feeders or thieves. They are rabid hyenas and jackals looking to nibble a piece at time from us when while we are distracted.

    In the jungle, these vermin are often present but certainly not welcome. At any opportunity they are squashed. In this way it is understandable why globalists would be so afraid of the jungle.

  • "Short Everything That Guy Has Touched" – San Fran's Lending Standards Put The Last Housing Bubble To Shame

    A perfect storm of low interest rates and a booming tech economy, which has pumped out an endless number of tech millionaires rewarded for amazing ideas like the ability to morph one’s face with a squirrel, have culminated in a substantial housing bubble in Silicon Valley and the surrounding areas. 

    As recently observed here and here, we think this bubble is just about ready to burst. In fact, an overlay of recent housing prices in San Franciso vs. Las Vegas prices during the last cycle look fairly ominous:

    San Fran vs. Vegas

     

    Several weeks ago in a post titled “These 2 Forces Will Crush the San Francisco Housing Bubble,” we presented the combination of plateauing employment with an accelerating expansion of housing supply as a nasty combination for home prices in Silicon Valley.  That said, we would like to add 1 more “force” to the list which is a return of extremely aggressive lending practices, painfully similar to the previous housing bubble. 

    As noted in a Bloomberg article today, the $0 down, 30-year, adjustable-rate, jumbo mortgage backed by illiquid stock options in tech start-ups, a loan which the San Francisco Federal Credit Union has coined POPPY, or Proud Ownership Purchase Program for You (because “Steaming Pile of Shit” just didn’t seem appropriate and messaging really is everything when you’re trying to dump loans overseas), has made a huge comeback in Silicon Valley. 

    As the San Francisco Federal Credit Union pointed out, it’s often not home values that keep people in rentals but rather the inability of potential buyers to come up with a down payment which would be equal to $187,000 on the median home in San Francisco.  So they decided to solve that silly little problem with POPPY.  To our “surprise”, POPPY has been a huge success and the credit union is sitting on a backlog of $100 million of pre-approved, 30-year, adjustable-rate mortgages just waiting to be funded.

    Not wanting to be outdone by their tech brethren, local banks have become very “innovative” in their race to “disrupt” the old-school approach to mortgage lending that requires things like down payments and rigorous credit checks.  Per Bloomberg:

    At Social Finance, the strategy is about getting in on the ground floor, which it aims to do through its marketing partnerships with 22 companies and a promise of an answer on a loan application within a day to help speed up the home-buying process.  SoFi also woos clients with loan officers who fight to help them win bidding wars against cash buyers.

     

    First Republic Bank — which gave Facebook Inc. billionaire Mark Zuckerberg a 1.05% interest-rate mortgage — has opened branches in Facebook and Twitter Inc. headquarters.

    As Glenn Kelman, CEO of the brokerage Redfin, concluded “It’s a smart bet to cater to a sector that’s created thousands of millionaires and dozens of billionaires.” 

    Our thoughts are best summarized by Steve Carroll at the very end of the clip below:

  • Bernie Supporters Boo, Chant "No More Wars" As Leon Panetta Pitches Hillary's War Credentials

    Former Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta reinforced Hillary Clinton’s position as a warmonger in his speech at the Democratic National Convention tonight. Amid various jabs at Donald Trump, Panetta exclaimed the danger of “withdrawal” of American forces from the world and the apparent need for more status quo interventionism; but the ‘reportedly’ united Democratic convention seemed not to agree. Bernie Sanders’ supporters drowned out Panetta’s claims that Hillary masterminded Bin Laden’s killing with boos and chants of “no more war,” and “lies.”

    Having already slammed Donald Trump with regard Russia,

    “I just think that’s beyond the pale,” he said to CNN’s Christiane Amanpour. “I think that kind of statement reflects that he is truly not qualified to be president of the United States.”

    The former CIA Head then proclaimed falsely that,

    “Trump..is asking one of our adversaries to engage in hacking or intelligence efforts against the US to affect our election.”

    But it was his reinforcement of Hillary Clinton’s war credentials that appeared to upset the clearly-divided Democratic party the most, as Bernie supporters drowned him out for a few moments with chants of “no more wars” and “lies” amid their booing…

    Excerpts from Panetta’s speech:

    This president is Hillary Clinton. During my time as CIA Director and Secretary of Defense, Hillary was a strong supporter of our efforts to protect our homeland, decimate al-Qaeda, and bring Osama bin Laden to justice. It was a tough decision to go after bin Laden. In long meetings in the White House Situation Room, we debated that fateful decision.

     

    I presented the intelligence to the President, laying out the risks. And when the President went around the table to the country’s national security leadership, Hillary was clear: We have to go get bin Laden. And our Special Operations Forces did just that. And they sent a clear message to the world that no one attacks America and gets away with it.

     

    Hillary is just as determined to defeat those who threaten us today: ISIS, al-Qaeda, Boko Haram, al-Shabaab. Terrorists who pervert the teachings of Islam to kill innocent people going about their daily lives, people traveling through airports in Brussels and Istanbul, families celebrating on the beachfront in France, men and women shopping in a market in Baghdad, and just this week, an 85-year-old priest whose throat was slit by terrorists who stormed his church during Mass. These murderers must be stopped.

     

    Hillary Clinton is the only candidate who has laid out a comprehensive plan to defeat and destroy ISIS and keep America safe. She is smart. She is principled. She is tough and she is ready. Hillary is the single most experienced and prepared person who has ever run for president.

     

     

    We cannot afford someone who believes America should withdraw from the world, threatens our international treaties, and violates our moral principles.

    As The Hill reports, Panetta appeared very flustered as he stood on stage waiting for the chants to end.

    As Panetta continued to speak, the lights were dimmed over the sections of Sanders supporters, an apparent effort to silence them. 

     

    But the protesters were undeterred and lit up cell phone flashlights in protest.

     

    The chants undercut a portion of the convention dedicated to promoting Clinton’s national security bonafides. 

     

    Retired Rear Adm. John Hutson’s speech was also cut off by chants from the California delegation. But the chants appeared unrelated to his speech, which praised the former secretary of State’s readiness to be president and attacked Trump as reckless on foreign policy.

    We have one word: Unity?

  • Richard Koo: If Helicopter Money Succeeds, It Will Lead To 1,500% Inflation

    After today’s uneventful Fed announcement, all eyes turn to the BOJ where many anticipate some form of “helicopter money” is about to be unveiled in Japan by the world’s most experimental central bank.

    However, as Nomura’s Richard Koo warns, central banks may get much more than they bargained for, because helicopter money “probably marks the end of the road for believers in the omnipotence of monetary policy who have continued to press for further accommodation in the midst of a balance sheet recession, when such policies simply cannot work.”

    As he continues, believers “have doggedly insisted that it is possible to control inflation because (1) inflation is everywhere and always a monetary phenomenon and (2) central banks control the supply of money. Based on this belief, they have implemented a variety of policies including quantitative easing, negative interest rates, forward guidance, and inflation targeting, each of which has failed to produce expected results. Now they have reached the end of the line, and the signpost reads “Last stop: helicopter money.

    Koo continues to unload on central bankers, slamming their “faith that the economy will pick up if only money is dropped from the sky” that has provided a psychological foundation for economists and policymakers convinced of the efficacy of monetary policy. It also explains why nothing has worked yet. The Nomura strategist then mocks “their belief that dropping money from helicopters would revive the economy that has led them to assume that slightly less extreme policies such as quantitative easing and inflation targeting would also have a positive economic impact (albeit a more modest one).”

    This is precisely what we said in March 2009 when the Fed first launched QE, and were mocked. It has now become mainstream.

    * * *

    We also predicted that the endgame will ultimately be hyperinflation, after an extended period of intermediary steps in which central bankers stumble from one interim, and flawed, “solution” to another, until they finally hit the monetary endgame…  which is where we are now.

    Koo admits as much by highlighting the paradox of helicopter money   (assuming the form it is most likely to be implemented under, i.e., financing of deficits) namely that if and when it is ultimately successful, it will assure hyperinflation. This is how he puts it:

    Eventually the private sector will complete its balance sheet repairs and resume borrowing. When that happens, inflation can quickly spiral out of control unless the central bank drains the liquidity it pumped into the market under quantitative easing or helicopter money. For example, excess reserves created by the Fed currently amount to some 15 times the level of statutory reserves.  

     

    That implies that if businesses and households were to resume borrowing in earnest, the US money supply could balloon to 15 times its current size, sending inflation as high as 1,500%. The corresponding ratios are 28 times for Japan and Switzerland, five times for the eurozone, and 11 times for the UK.

     

    Once private-sector demand for loans recovers in these countries, confidence in the dollar, euro, and yen will plummet unless the Fed reduces excess reserves to one-fifteenth of their current level, the ECB to one-fifth, and the Bank of Japan to one-twenty-eighth.

    So what’s the problem: just soak up reserves, i.e., sell central bank assets?

    However, as Koo puts it, “that sort of extreme reduction in reserves will require the central bank to sell the bonds it holds, which would be a nightmare for both the economy and the bond market.

    In short, it would result in a bidless (already illiquid) bond market with yields exploding, and likewise trigger an explosion in inflation as suddenly interest rates go through the roof, countless companies default on their debt, and the value of both debt and credit implode.

    * * *

    Below we present selected excerpts from Koo’s full “cost-benefit analysis” of helicopter money, and specifically the four forms it could take, and why each of them is ultimately doomed.

    1. Dropping money from the sky

    A look at the helicopter money debate in Japan and elsewhere shows that the actual policies being discussed can be classified into four main types. The first is helicopter money in the literal sense of dropping money from helicopters. Would this work? In Japan, at least, it would be another complete failure. This is because when the typical Japanese finds a 10,000-yen note lying on the ground, she will turn it in at the nearest police station rather than spend it. Put differently, a helicopter money policy can only work if the people in a country have little sense of right and wrong.

    No seller would exchange products for money that fell from the sky

    Another critical omission from the argument that helicopter money will resuscitate the economy is that it focuses exclusively on the logic of buyers while ignoring the logic of sellers.  Unethical buyers may try to go shopping with money that has fallen from the sky, but there is no reason for sellers to accept such money. Sellers are willing to take money in exchange for goods and services only because the supply of that money is strictly controlled by the central bank. If money starts falling from the sky, sellers will refuse to accept it as payment for their products. If the authorities actually began dropping money from helicopters, shops would either close their doors or demand payment in foreign currency or gold, and the economy would quickly collapse. There is no economy so wretched as one that no longer has a national currency the people trust.

    Helicopter money not the ultimate form of monetary accommodation

    In light of the above, the argument that monetary policy can be relied upon to boost the economy because helicopter money is the ultimate form of monetary accommodation and always works can be seen to be complete nonsense that ignores the standpoint of sellers. Taking monetary accommodation to those extremes would lead to the economy’s collapse, not its recovery. There is no case in recorded history of an economy without a credible national currency outperforming an economy that has one. 

    2. Financing government deficits

    In response to this criticism, some proponents of helicopter money would probably say that the helicopter money policies now being discussed do not involve actually dropping money from the sky but rather call for direct financing of government fiscal expenditures by the central bank. In this, the second version of helicopter money, the money is supplied in a way that is not immediately visible to ordinary citizens, so it may take time before sellers begin refusing to sell, but the problems that remain are no different from those of quantitative easing.

    Financing of fiscal expenditures during balance sheet recession does not stimulate economy

    Fiscal stimulus itself can provide a large boost to the economy. But while direct financing by the central bank may increase reserves in the banking system, those reserves will be trapped in the banking system because there are no private-sector borrowers during a balance sheet recession even at zero interest rates. Prime examples include post-1990 Japan and the leading Western economies since 2008. At such times, the “direct” part of the direct financing of fiscal stimulus cannot stimulate the economy or raise inflation any more than the “non-direct” QE. Both growth and inflation have remained at depressed levels in Japan (since 1990) and the West (since 2008) regardless of how accommodative monetary policy has become because the private sector stopped borrowing after the bubble collapse slashed the value of its assets but left its liabilities intact.

    Question of how to mop up excess liquidity has not been answered

    Eventually the private sector will complete its balance sheet repairs and resume borrowing. When that happens, inflation can quickly spiral out of control unless the central bank drains the liquidity it pumped into the market under quantitative easing or helicopter money. For example, excess reserves created by the Fed currently amount to some 15 times the level of statutory reserves. That implies that if businesses and households were to resume borrowing in earnest, the US money supply could balloon to 15 times its current size, sending inflation as high as 1,500%. The corresponding ratios are 28 times for Japan and Switzerland, five times for the eurozone, and 11 times for the UK. Once private-sector demand for loans recovers in these countries, confidence in the dollar, euro, and yen will plummet unless the Fed reduces excess reserves to one-fifteenth of their current level, the ECB to one-fifth, and the Bank of Japan to one-twenty-eighth.

    But that sort of extreme reduction in reserves will require the central bank to sell the bonds it holds, which would be a nightmare for both the economy and the bond market. It would be a different matter if we were talking about future increases in reserves under a helicopter money policy, but the Fed has already created some $2.5trn in excess reserves under quantitative easing, and the BOJ has created ¥250trn, which means the monetary authorities cannot avoid the issue of draining those funds from the market.

    3. Government scrip and perpetual zero-coupon bonds

    A third version of helicopter money involves government money printing or the replacement of the JGBs held by the BOJ with perpetual zero-coupon bonds. The people proposing these policies hope that fiscal stimulus financed by government scrip or perpetual zero-coupon bonds, which are not viewed as government liabilities, will elicit spending from people who are currently saving because of concerns about the size of the fiscal deficit and the likelihood of future tax increases. Economists refer to this reluctance to spend because of worries about future tax hikes as the Ricardian equivalence. If true, it implies that consumption will increase each time the government raises taxes since higher taxes mean lower deficit in the future. The fact that this phenomenon has never once been observed in the real world suggests it is nothing more than an empty theory.

    Moreover, there are serious issues that must be confronted once the economy picks up and the liquidity supplied by the monetary authorities via government scrip or zero-coupon perpetuals must be drained from the system. Perpetual zero-coupon bonds are essentially worthless, which means the BOJ cannot sell them—no one in the private sector would be stupid enough to buy them. That means the only way to mop up the excess reserves created via the issue of perpetual zero-coupon bonds is for the BOJ to ask the MOF to issue equivalent amounts of coupon-bearing bonds. The same would be true when trying to mop up reserves created by government scrip. Once this scrip starts circulating, it becomes part of the monetary base, and draining it from the system will require the government to absorb it by issuing bonds. And in the case of both perpetuals and government scrip, the government that issued the bonds cannot spend the proceeds. If the government spends them, the liquidity that had been mopped up will flow back into the economy again. Those recommending the issuance of government scrip or perpetual zero-coupon bonds say that one advantage of this approach is that it does not lead to an expansion of government liabilities (upon issuance). However, they will become massive government liabilities when the economy eventually recovers and they must be mopped up.

    Helicopter money proponents silent on issue of mopping up reserves

    In other words, the biggest issue with helicopter money—as with quantitative easing—is the question of how to drain these funds from the system. It becomes clear just how problematic both policies are when the difficulty of draining reserves is taken into account. Yet in all the discussion about helicopter money and quantitative easing in Japan and elsewhere, almost no one has touched on the massive costs involved in mopping up the excess reserves created under these policies. Everyone emphasizes the benefits of these policies when introduced while ignoring that those benefits are small indeed when we examine the costs and benefits over the policy’s lifetime. As one example of this bias, Waseda University professor Masazumi Wakatabe argued in a Nikkei column titled “Easy Economics” that helicopter money is preferable to quantitative easing inasmuch as it enables the government to undertake fiscal stimulus without increasing its liabilities.

    I suspect that the helicopter money envisioned by Mr. Wakatabe involves the issuance of government scrip or direct central bank underwriting of perpetual zero-coupon bonds. However, he makes no mention whatsoever of how the liquidity created via these methods will be drained from the system once private-sector demand for loans recovers.

    Helicopter money offers no benefits whatsoever over policy’s lifetime

    As described above, the only way to mop up liquidity that has been created using these methods is for the government to issue bonds and not spend the proceeds. I think this would be more difficult from both a legal and practical perspective than winding down quantitative easing, which in itself is no easy task. Moreover, the amount of government debt that must ultimately be acquired by the private sector is no different from a case in which the government had issued bonds to fund fiscal stimulus from the outset.

    In short, whether fiscal stimulus is funded with government scrip and zero-coupon bonds or with the ordinary issue of government debt, the size of the government’s liabilities will be the same in the end. Helicopter money offers no benefits whatsoever when viewed over the lifetime of the policy, including the eventual need to mop up liquidity.

    4. Handing cash directly to consumers

    A fourth version of helicopter money involves handing out money directly to consumers, without requiring it to pass through financial institutions. In this scenario, a consumer might open her mailbox one morning to find an envelope from the Bank of Japan containing ¥1mn. While that discovery may bring momentary happiness, I suspect she may feel a chill down her spine once she realizes everyone around her had received similar envelopes. And if such envelopes arrived day after day, the entire country would quickly fall into a panic as people lose all sense of what their currency is worth. Regardless of what buyers might wish to do, sellers would be forced to protect themselves, with stores putting up signs requesting payment in either foreign currency or gold. This is a nightmare scenario.

    * * *

    Why is helicopter money so popular?

    What I find fascinating is why so many pundits in Japan and elsewhere continue to promote policies like quantitative easing and helicopter money while completely ignoring the need to eventually mop up all the liquidity created under these policies. One possibility is that this marks the last stand of the academic economists who have been insisting for the past three decades that monetary policy is the solution to all economic problems. Mr. Wakatabe, for example, declared without irony that “the problem of how to increase nominal GDP always has an answer: helicopter money.” This argument completely ignores sellers’ reactions and the ultimate cost of mopping up excess liquidity. Yet even Mr. Wakatabe acknowledged in the aforementioned Nikkei column that no matter how much money the central bank supplies under quantitative easing, “the money available for people to use will not increase unless financial institutions start lending more.” This statement suggests that the professor has finally realized the shortcomings of monetary policy during a balance sheet recession, something we have been talking about for the last 20 years. And that, in turn, may be why these economists are now leaning in the direction of helicopter money, which could go directly to the households and not depend on financial institutions.

    Will private-sector loan demand ever recover?

    Another possibility is that these economists are assuming private-sector loan demand will never recover. If that were in fact the case, there would be no need to mop up the liquidity, and consequently no need to worry about the attendant costs. The current economic slump could continue indefinitely if people who had terrible experiences digging themselves out of debt following the asset bubble’s collapse decided they would never again borrow money. In that case there would be no need for the central bank to move quickly to mop up the funds created under quantitative easing and helicopter money. It is extremely difficult to project when the private sector will overcome its debt trauma and resume borrowing, inasmuch as there are few historical instances in which an economy has emerged from a balance sheet recession. But I think it is dangerous to keep quantitative easing and helicopter money policies in place based on the assumption that the current situation will continue forever. After all, success for all policies including helicopter money is defined as a recovery in private-sector demand for loans.

  • "Real, Imminent Threat" That Next World War Will Be Initiated By First Strike EMP Weapon

    Submitted by Jeremiah Johnson (nom de plume of retired Green Beret, US Army Special Forces (Airborne)) via SHTFPlan.com,

    There has been a tremendous amount of technological interchange between North Korea, the Russians, and the Chinese.  North Korea has also been working for years in the refinement (development) of its nuclear arsenal, especially in partnership with Pakistan and Iran.  In a press conference at the Pentagon on October 24, 2014 reporters were briefed by General Curtis Scaparrotti, the U.S. Military Commander in Korea.  This is what the general had to say:

    “I believe they [the North Koreans] have the capability to have miniaturized the [nuclear] device at this point, and they have the technology to potentially, actually deliver what they say they have.”

    On March 9, 2016, Kim Jong-Un for the first time stated that North Korea had accomplished the miniaturization of nuclear warheads that are compatible with ICBM’s.  Admiral William Gortney, Commander of US NORTHCOM was in front of a Senate Committee on March 10, 2016 briefing them on the potential North Korean nuclear threat.  The Admiral stated it was “prudent to assume Pyongyang had the ability to miniaturize a nuclear warhead” and deliver it via ICBM that could actually strike the continental U.S.

    Finally, (and the most compelling proponent of the danger posed by North Korea), Dr. Peter V. Pry, the foremost expert on EMP (Electromagnetic Pulse) threats by established and rogue nations has long upheld that Iran and North Korea hold an EMP first strike as central to their current military doctrines.  Pry has spent countless hours briefing Senate Investigating Committees on the dangers of an EMP strike by these two nations.

    This year the North Koreans have ramped up their missile tests exponentially, building off of their R&D for the past five years.  Kwangmyongsong-3, Unit 2 satellite was placed into orbit December 12, 2012.  Kwangmyongsong-4 satellite was successfully launched February 7, 2016.  In April 2016 they tested an ICBM engine.  May 2015 saw their claim of a successful SLBM (Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile) test, their first. Then this year, March 23, 2016, (as reported by CNN’s Don Melvin, Jim Sciutto, and Wil Ripley on April 24), their success became a reality.  Here is an excerpt from that report by CNN:

    After previous launch attempts by Pyongyang failed, this one seems to have gone much better, one U.S. official noted.

     

    “North Korea’s sub launch capability has gone from a joke to something very serious,” this official said. “The U.S. is watching this very closely.”

     

    Asked whether the test was successful, another U.S. official told CNN, “essentially yes.”

    The missile traveled 30 km as opposed to the 300 km intended by North Korea, but this is the point: North Korea successfully launched the missile from the submarine.  As can be seen, a U.S. official categorized the test as being successful, as well as another one noting the seriousness of North Korea’s newfound capability.  They have recently been launching short and medium-range missiles in tests, and these tests have been conducted regularly over the past 6 months and almost nonstop.

    On July 22, Jane’s Defence Weekly reported that North Korea has constructed a fortified structure (docks) that can potentially shelter ballistic missile-carrying submarines.  Although the report was just made, it was satellite photo imagery that indicated these submarine pens had neared project completion and they were being covered with earth.  The satellite photos indicated that the two enclosures measure 490 feet in length by 32 feet in width, with there being about 50 feet in between the two of them.  The project had actually been started back in October of 2013.

    These are pretty serious reports, and as much as they are laughed at and disparaged, the North Koreans are in deadly earnest about doggedly attaining advances in their nuclear forces’ capabilities.  In March of 2016, North Korea threatened that it would conduct a “preemptive and offensive nuclear strike.” The “balance” that has been made is simple, effected by simpletons, as such:

    The North Koreans threaten to strike and bluster their nuclear capability.  The United States responds with, “Oh, they can’t do that,” or “they don’t have the technology,” or some other such scoffing characterization.

    The frightening thing about this teteatete is that neither side’s leaders or elites will face any kind of danger or peril that would result from a nuclear conflagration, but the populations of both countries would suffer immeasurably.  A general and an admiral have stated their belief in the miniaturization capabilities of North Korea regarding nuclear warheads.  The foremost expert on the EMP has provided prima facie evidence before the Senate and numerous commissions attesting to those capabilities.  Each day North Korea ramps up its tests and its threats.  Russia and China publicly whisper their disapproval of such actions and words while taking no steps to actually stop them.

    The next world war will be initiated by a first strike utilizing an EMP weapon.

    There is no timetable.  The threat is real, and it is imminent.  It is a matter of time before it is carried out.  Do you want something more tangible?  Here it is.  Now would be a good time to construct the necessary Faraday cages for your sensitive electronic equipment you wish to have after a war commences.  You’ll also need emergency food, water, medicine, and a stockpile of materials to defend it, hopefully in a remote location.

    Naysayers and politicians have one thing in common: denial of the reality of a situation.  The difference is that the first group is usually unprepared when it happens and they are ignorant of the situation (in terms of information, and this partially due to denial).  The politicians and leaders are the exact opposite: they deny the reality to obfuscate their complete knowledge of the reality, and they are completely prepared for what will unfold…and those politicians and leaders are prepped and defended on your dime, in every way.

  • China Unveils 'Pokemon Go Danger' Public Service Announcement

    Following reports of an Ohio man shot three times and robbed of his phone while playing ‘Pokemon Go’, it seemed appropriate to share China’s latest Public Service Announcement…

  • Democrats Question "Loyalty To US" Of "Treasonous, Traitor" Trump

    In a full court propaganda press, enabling by a liberal media that can read polling data as well as anyone else, the 'wild conspiracy theory' that Donald Trump coordinated with Putin to hack and expose DNC emails (that prove the level of rigging and collusion that is too much to bear for many democracy-seeking citizens) has now become confirmed fact… entirely lacking any actual facts. In a desperate bid to regain the narrative, as any convention bounce is erased for Hillary Clinton, her surrogates, as The Hill reports, have now stepped it up, calling Trump "treasonous" and a "traitor," questioning "his loyalty to America."

    Having earlier stated that he wished Russian hackers accused of breaching the DNC also obtained emails deleted from Clinton’s personal server…

    “If they hacked, they probably have her 30,000 emails,” he said during a press conference at his Miami-area hotel. "I hope they do.

     

    Russia, if you are listening, I hope you are able to find the 30,000 emails that are missing. I think you will probably be rewarded mightily by the press.”

    The Democrats have mobilized everyone to change the narrative away from the corruption, rigging, and collusion that is barely beneath the surface of the contentious convention… (via The Hill)

    “He is inviting an aggressive country that we are really worried about to invade us,” Sen. Claire McCaskill (Mo.) said on MSNBC. "This is — this is ridiculous, and, frankly, it borders on treasonous."

     

    "It’s terrifying he’s doing as well as he is," she added of the GOP's presidential nominee. "I don’t think this is a man who has any interest in understanding the complexity of foreign policy."

     

    Rep. Steve Israel (N.Y.) closely echoed McCaskill’s concerns during his own interview with MSNBC on Wednesday.

     

    Well, that borders on treason. Never before have I heard of or seen a candidate not just for president, but for anything, invite a foreign spy agency to hack America’s computers. It’s one thing to be unfit for command, but today he’s proved he’s dangerously unfit for command."

     

    Former CIA Director and Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta earlier Wednesday questioned Trump’s loyalty to the U.S. following the billionaire’s comments.

     

    “I just think that’s beyond the pale,” he said to CNN’s Christiane Amanpour. "I think that kind of statement reflects that he is truly not qualified to be president of the United States.”

     

    Rep. Eliot Engel (N.Y.) said Trump’s comments may encourage further Russian meddling in the general presidential election. Russia is accused of hacking the Democratic National Committee's (DNC) emails and leaking them to WikiLeaks, which released nearly 20,000 of them last week.

     

    “Vladimir Putin is working to influence an American election, and a major-party candidate wants to benefit from this foreign interference by encouraging more illegal hacks,” Engel said in a statement.

     

    We cannot allow Russia to manipulate American democracy, and we cannot stay quiet when a major American political figure invites foreign influence into American voting booths," said Engel, a ranking member on the House Committee on Foreign Affairs.

     

    And House Democratic Whip Steny Hoyer (Md.) said Trump’s comments raise serious concerns about his patriotism.

     

    “To call on a foreign adversary to commit an illegal act of cybercrime and espionage in order to undermine a political rival is not only un-American, it undermines our national security,” he said in a statement.

    "Undermining a politcal rival"? Now who would do such a thing? Debbie? Guilty… guilty… guilty… we hear them cry… we are somewhat reminded of this…

    But seriously, of course, Trump never lied under oath; was not responsible for the content of the incriminating emails; and, like many others (except the mainstream media), is perhaps rightly interested in whether anyone (from the NSA to Guccifer) has those 30,000 deleted emails.

    We come back to our previous conclusion as to how this sound and fury plays out

    To be sure all of the above ac is circumstantial and while we have no independent insight into any of the above, we are confident that now that the trail has grown "warm", the FBI – which yesterday said that Russia is a prime suspect – will use this as a foundation upon which to build a case blaming the Kremlin for interfering in US politics… will there be more YouTube video proof?

     

    Which then begs the question: just like in the case of Snowden whose "treasonous" act has made him into a cult hero for a great part of the US population due to his pursuit of government accountability, would a Russian hack – if confirmed – be seen as a hostile act, or – when considering the dramatic revelations – one of much needed transparency into corrupt US political practices.

     

    And even if the FBI does find Putin as the gulty party, just how will the US respond? Will this be the first case of "cyberespionage" that escalates to some more conventional form of militaristic retaliation?

  • Insanity In Japan

    Submitted by Michael Lebowitz via 720Global.com (h/t Lance Roberts at RealInvestmentAdvice.com),

    Pondering the state of the global economy can elicit manic?depressive?obsessive?compulsive emotions. The volatility of global markets – equities, bonds, commodities, currencies, etc. – are challenging enough without consideration of Brexit, the U.S. Presidential election, radical Islamic terrorism and so on. Yet no discussion of economic and market environments is complete without giving hefty consideration to what may be a major shift in the way economic policy is conducted in Japan.

    The Japanese economy has been the poster child for economic malaise and bad fortune for so long that even the most radical policy responses no longer garner much attention. In fact, recent policy actions intended to weaken the Yen have resulted in significant appreciation of the yen against the currencies of Japan’s major trade partners, further crippling economic activity. The frustration of an appreciating currency coupled with deflation and zero economic growth has produced signs that what Japan has in store for the world falls squarely in to the category of “you ain’t seen nothin’ yet.” Assuming new fiscal and monetary policies will be similar to those enacted in the past is a big risk that should be contemplated by investors.

     

    The Last 25 Years

    The Japanese economy has been fighting weak growth and deflationary forces for over 25 years. Japan’s equity market and real estate bubbles burst in the first week of 1990, presaging deflation and stagnant economic growth ever since. Despite countless monetary and fiscal efforts to combat these economic ailments, nothing seems to work.

    Any economist worth his salt has multiple reasons for the depth and breadth of these issues but very few get to the heart of the problem. The typical analysis suggests that weak growth in Japan is primarily being caused by weak demand. Over the last 25 years, insufficient demand, or a lack of consumption, has been addressed by increasingly incentivizing the population and the government to consume more by taking on additional debt. That incentive is produced via lower interest rates. If demand really is the problem, however, then some version of these policies should have worked, but to date they have not.

    If the real problem, however, is too much debt, which at 255% of Japan’s GDP seems a reasonable assumption to us, then the misdiagnoses and resulting ill?designed policy response leads to even slower growth, more persistent deflationary pressures and exacerbates the original problem. The graphs below shows that economic activity is currently at levels last seen in 1993, yet the level of debt has risen 360% since 1996. The charts provide evidence that
    Japan’s crippling level of debt is not helping the economy recover and in fact is creating massive headwinds.

    What is so confounding about this situation is that after 25 years, one would expect Japanese leadership to eventually recognize that they are following Einstein’s definition of insanity – doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. Equally insane, leaders in the rest of the developed world are following Japan over the same economic cliff. 

    Throughout this period of economic stagnation and deflation, Japan has increasingly emphasized its desire to generate inflation. The ulterior motive behind such a strategy is hidden in plain sight. If the value of a currency, in this case the Yen, is eroded by rising inflation debtors are able to pay back that debt with Yen that is worth less than it used to be. For example, if Japan were somehow able to generate 4% inflation for 5 years, the compounded effect of that inflation would serve to devalue the currency by roughly 22%. Therefore, debtors (the Japanese government) could repay outstanding debt in five years at what is a 22% discount to its current value. Said more bluntly, they can essentially default on 22% of their debt. 

    What we know about Japan is that their debt load has long since surpassed the country’s ability to repay it in conventional terms. Given that it would allow them to erase some percentage of the value of the debt outstanding, their desperation to generate inflation should not be underestimated. One way or another, this is the reality Japan hopes to achieve.

     

    QE

    Quantitative easing (QE) is one of the primary monetary policy approaches central banks have
    taken since the 2008 financial crisis. With short term interest rates pegged at zero, and thus the traditional level of monetary policy at its effective limit, the U.S. Federal Reserve and many other central banks conjured new money from the printing presses and began buying sovereign debt and, in some cases mortgages, corporate bonds and even equities. This approach to increasing the money supply achieved central bank objectives of levitating stocks and other asset markets, in the hope that newly created “wealth” would trickle down. The mission has yet to produce the promised “escape velocity” for economic growth or higher inflation. The wealthy, who own most of the world’s financial assets, have seen their wealth expand rapidly. However, for most of the working population, the outcome has been economic struggle, further widening of the wealth gap and a deepening sense of discontentment. 

     

    The Nuclear Option

    In 2014, as the verdict on the efficacy of QE became increasingly clear, European and Japanese central bankers went back to the drawing board. They decided that if the wealth effect of boosting financial markets would not deliver the desired consumption to drive economic growth then surely negative interest rates would do the trick. Unfortunately, the central bankers appear to have forgotten that there are both borrowers and lenders who are affected by the level of interest rates. Not only have negative interest rates failed to advance economic growth, the strategy appears to have eroded public confidence in the institution of central banking and financially damaging the balance sheets of many banks.

    In recent weeks, former Federal Reserve (Fed) chairman Ben Bernanke paid a visit to Tokyo and met with a variety of Japanese leaders including Bank of Japan chairman Haruhiko Kuroda. In those meetings, Bernanke supposedly offered counsel to the Japanese about how they might, once and for all, break the deflationary shackles that enslave their economy using “helicopter money” (the termed was coined by Milton Freidman and made popular in 2002 by Ben Bernanke). What Bernanke proposes, is for Japan to effectively take one of the few remaining steps toward “all?in” or the economic policy equivalent of a “nuclear option”.

    The Japanese government appears to be leading the charge in the next chapter of stranger than fiction economic policy through some form of “helicopter money”. As opposed to the prior methods of QE, this new approach marries monetary policy with fiscal policy by putting printed currency into the hands of the Ministry of Finance (MOF or Japan’s Treasury department) for direct distribution through a fiscal policy program. Such a program may be infrastructure spending or it may simply be a direct deposit into the bank accounts of public citizens. Regardless of its use, the public debt would rise further.

    According to the meeting notes shared with the media Bernanke recommended that the MoF issue “perpetual bonds”, or bonds which have no maturity date. The Bank of Japan (BOJ or Japan’s Central Bank) would essentially print Yen to buy the perpetual bonds and further expand their already bloated balance sheet. The new money for those bonds would go to the MoF for distribution in some form through a fiscal policy measure. The BoJ receives the bonds, the MoF gets the newly printed money and the citizens of Japan would receive a stimulus package that will deliver inflation and a real economic recovery. Sounds like a win?win, huh?

    Temporarily, yes. Economic activity will increase and inflation may rise. Let us suppose that the decision is to distribute the newly printed currency from the sale of the perpetual bonds directly into the hands of the Japanese people. Further let us suppose every dollar of that money is spent. In such a circumstance, economic activity will pick up sharply. However, eventually the money will run out, spending falters and economic stagnation and decline will resume.

    At this point, Japan has the original accumulated debt plus the new debt created through perpetual bonds and an economy that did not respond organically to this new policy measure. Naturally the familiar response from policymakers is likely to be “we just didn’t do enough”. It is then highly probable another round of helicopter money will be issued producing another short lived spurt of economic activity. As with previous policy efforts, this pattern likely repeats over and over again. Each time, however, the amount of money printed and perpetual bonds issued must be greater than the prior attempts. Otherwise, economic growth will not occur, it will, at best, only match that of the prior experience.

    Eventually, due to the mountain of money going directly in to the economy, inflation will emerge. However, the greater likelihood is not that inflation emerges, but that it actually explodes resulting in a complete annihilation of the currency and the Japanese economy. In hypothetical terms as described here, the outcome would be devastating. Unlike prior methods of QE which can be halted and even reversed, helicopter money demands ever
    increasing amounts to achieve the desired growth and inflation. Once started, it will be very
    difficult to stop as economic activity would stumble.

    The following paragraph came from “Part Deux – Shorting the Federal Reserve”. In the article we described how the French resorted to a helicopter money to help jump start a stagnant economy.

    “With each new issue came increased trade and a stronger economy. The problem was the activity wasn’t based on anything but new money. As such, it had very little staying power and the positive benefits quickly eroded. Businesses were handcuffed. They found it hard to make any decisions in fear the currency would continue to drop in value. Prices continued to rise. Speculation and hoarding were becoming the primary drivers of the economy. ‘Commerce was dead; betting took its place.’ With higher prices, employees were laid off as merchants struggled to cover increasing costs”.

     

    The French money printing exercise ultimately led to economic ruin and was a leading factor fueling the French revolution.

    Summary

    Is it possible that Bernanke’s helicopter money approach could work and finally help Japan escape deflation in conjunction with a healthy, organically growing economy? It has a probability that is certainly greater than zero, but given the continual misdiagnoses of the core problem, namely too much debt, that probability is not much above zero. There is a far greater likelihood of a multitude of other undesirable unintended consequences.

    Of all the developed countries, Japan is in the worst condition economically. Most others, including the United States, are following the same path to insanity though. Unlike Japan, other countries may have time to implement policy changes that will allow them to avoid Japan’s desperate circumstances.

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Today’s News 27th July 2016

  • Beware The "Crisis Actors" – Goring, Erdogan, Krugman, Cramer, Draghi, Yellen

    Submitted by Ben Hunt via Salient Partners' Epsilon Theory blog,

    Hermann Göring and the Nazis didn’t burn the Reichstag down in 1933. They left that to a simpleton Communist patsy (that’s him in the photo; quite the ur-terrorist, no?). But Göring and the Nazis used the Reichstag fire as their excuse to arrest thousands, establish Hitler as the Führer and unleash a decade-plus of fascist horror on Germany and the world. History is rhyming today, as it always does.

    Just need a little hair dye on that Erdogan moustache, and I think we’re good to go.

    My favorite De Niro role, worth watching just for the fingernails and the way the man eats an egg.

    Four people died at the 1969 Altamont concert, including a front row murder during the Stones set. It’s fun to strut on stage and sing about this stuff, until the Hells Angels show you what you’re singing about.

    Everything I know about politics, I learned from “The Wire”. That and a Ph.D. in Government from Harvard. But mostly “The Wire”.

     

    I think it’s a guy thing, this willingness to be a patsy for a cause, be it love, or lust, or greed, or religion … or a political party. Don’t be a patsy. Be a Sam Spade. Be an Omar.

    A “crisis actor” is a familiar theme in all sorts of conspiracy theories. Basically, the idea is that terrorist attacks and the like are false-flag operations, where nefarious government agencies kill their own citizens, directly or indirectly, in order to instill fear and maintain popular support for the smiley-face authoritarianism of the modern State. Crisis actors are the patsies hired by the agencies to weep and wail for the cameras, creating the initial Narrative of terror and supporting the follow-on Narrative of steely government resolve to track down the supposed bad guys.

    As per usual with conspiracy theories, the specifics of their claims about crisis actors are nonsense. It’s not “the same girl” crying at Newtown and Orlando and Nice, as the photos on conspiracy websites claim. CNN isn’t a secret division of the CIA. Neil Armstrong really did walk on the moon.

    But as also per usual with conspiracy theories, they’re not thinking big enough. Crisis acting isn’t found in the secret construction of a crime scene. It’s found in the public construction of a social Narrative. It’s found in the public statements of the Missionaries (to use the game theory term) who create Common Knowledge — what everyone knows that everyone knows.

    Hermann Göring and Erdogan are crisis actors, pretending that the Nazis or the Islamists are the only force standing between the Motherland and political traitors within and abroad, pretending that their “emergency policies” are anything less than a permanent seizure of political control.

    It’s oh so easy to look at what’s going on in Turkey and shake our heads and tsk-tsk that awful Erdogan and the awful anti-democratic things he’s doing over there. Because it IS awful. What’s happening today in Turkey is absolutely a carbon copy of what happened in Germany in 1933 with the Reichstag Fire, and every Western president and prime minister and chancellor and secretary of state and foreign minister — all of whom are mouthing the same diplo-speak pablum about the Islamist fascists of 2016 that their counterparts mouthed about the Nazi fascists of 1933 — will have the same stain on their souls. Not that I’m sure many of this 2016 crowd have a soul left to stain. As Gertrude Stein famously said about Oakland, and I’m saying about these crisis actors, there’s no there there. Whatever human beings they used to be, it seems they’ve been absorbed by their public cartoons, which is really just … sad.

    But look homeward, angel. Look homeward, too.

    Paul Krugman and Tom Friedman and Jim Cramer and their media Missionary kin are also crisis actors, pretending that the Brexit vote was a deluded, colossal mistake perpetrated on innocent UK voters by economic traitors within and abroad.

    Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi and their central bank Missionary kin are also crisis actors, pretending that their “emergency policies”, now more than seven years old, are anything less than a permanent political shift in the global allocation of money and credit.

    I mean, can’t we just stop these charades surrounding “the Horror of Brexit” and “data dependence”? Can’t we just admit that it’s all an exercise in — to use the Fed’s terminology — “communication policy”, where words are chosen for effect rather than to convey true belief or opinion … or what we would call in normal human interaction “lying”?

    Of course we can’t. Whether you’re Göring or Erdogan or Yellen or Draghi, once you start weaving that tangled web of deception, you can’t un-weave it. Once you sell your soul to the Narrative Devil you can’t buy it back. Erdogan can’t walk his purge back even if he wanted to. Yellen can’t walk her dot plots and forward guidance back even if she wanted to. Draghi and Kuroda are never going to go on stage and shrug their shoulders and say “oops, sorry ‘bout that.” At least St. Louis Fed Governor Jim Bullard didn’t have to flee to Greece for his “failed dot plot coup”.

    And yeah … I understand that I’m tarring central bankers and their fellow travelers with the fascist brush. Because the road to hell is paved with good intentions as well as bad. Because there IS a moral equivalence between the means used by Göring and Erdogan to accomplish their ends and the means used by central bankers to accomplish theirs. Do the differing ends and the better intentions matter? Of course they do. And that’s why Ben Bernanke gets $250,000 per speech and Hermann Göring got a cyanide pill in his prison cell. But the shared means of false Narrative and crisis acting matter, too, because they create a world of profound inauthenticity, where ALL public speech is deemed suspect and self-serving — because it is! — and where ANY public speech, no matter how demagogue-ish or false or borderline insane, is deemed functionally equivalent to any other speech. Because it is. It’s what I call Gresham’s Law of Narrative: inauthentic speech drives authentic speech out of circulation, just like bad money drives good money out of circulation. If the function of public speech is to persuade rather than inform — and that’s precisely the function of forward guidance and every other status quo political statement of the past seven years — then it’s just comical for those same status quo institutions to complain now that their political opponents are “lying”. No, they’re just more effective persuaders. They’re just better liars.

    And yeah … I’m saying that the rise of Trump and Farage and Le Pen and their ilk is a direct consequence of the communication policy toolkit and the crisis acting employed by every Western central banker and politician over the past seven years. That’s exactly what I’m saying.

    As for us investors … we’re the “poor slobs on a farm” that Hermann Göring talks about in his prison cell interviews during the Nuremberg Trials. We don’t want to go to war, whether it’s a real-life war like Erdogan is waging or an ersatz war like Yellen and Draghi are waging. As Göring said, the best outcome for us is that we get home to our farms alive. Why in the world would we sign up for that?

    We sign up for it because we are biologically hard-wired over millions of years and socially soft-wired over tens of thousands of years to respond to Narrative. We are social animals in the scientific, technical sense of the phrase, and we — along with our termite, ant, and bee cousins — are the four most successful multi-cellular animal species on Earth because of it. The hallmark of what biologists call a eusocial species isn’t just that it communicates. It swims in an ocean of communication. It is evolved to be immersed in constant communication. How many waking minutes of every day are you away from some sort of message from other humans? Five? Ten? For me it’s however long my morning shower takes. That’s about it. Probably about the same amount of time that an ant or a termite goes without a message from another ant or termite. That’s the human animal for you … basically a giant termite with fire. As a eusocial species, we can no more ignore a message from Janet Yellen than an ant can ignore a pheromone from its queen. Not only can we not ignore it, but it WILL move us, in some small way, at least.

    Thankfully, though, unlike an ant we have self-awareness. Or at least the capacity for self-awareness. We can recognize that this process of Narrative influence is happening to ourselves and to others, and we can resist if we choose to.

    Now, we will probably go along with whatever the Narrative is suggesting we do, because that’s usually the smart play. We know that there are millions of other ants hearing the queen’s message, and we know that each of them will be moved by her message. Plus — and this is the big insight from game theory, the engine for all of these Common Knowledge behaviors — we know that all of the other ants are thinking about US in exactly the same way we are thinking about THEM. Knowing that, it is entirely rational for each of us to act AS IF the queen’s message is True with a capital T.

    But acting AS IF doesn’t mean acting AS. That’s what the patsy does. The patsy is the guy who believes, deeply madly truly, that the queen’s message is True with a capital T, forever and ever, amen. The patsy is the guy without self-awareness. The patsy is the guy who doesn’t recognize that he’s being played. As the old poker saying goes, if you’ve been playing cards for half an hour and you don’t know who the sucker is … it’s you. The entire reason I write Epsilon Theory is to do my small part in preventing people from becoming suckers, from accepting Missionary statements at face value, from believing in their heart of hearts that maybe 2 + 2 = 5 and that maybe the Emperor is wearing a fine suit of clothes after all. The inescapable human Truth, of course, is that we are ALL being played ALL the time. But if you’re self-aware, you can resist. You can resist in your heart even if you comply in your behavior, and you can resist in your behavior if and when you choose. You know that you are being played, and you choose to go along with the game. For now.

    Okay, Ben, all very heroic and heartfelt, but what do we do?

    Well… here’s what we don’t do. We don’t “fight the Fed”, and we don’t stick our head in the sand and pretend that the status quo Missionaries can’t construct highly investable rallies. You know, like the rally we’re experiencing right now. But by the same token we don’t allow ourselves to become a patsy for the Fed or the ECB or the DNC or the RNC or the WSJ or the NYT or CNBC or whatever other institutional collection of initials asks you to play the fool. We should never trust the Fed or any other Missionary, because one day we’re going to need to, if not fight them, then at least take ourselves off their battlefield.

    I think what we need to DO is identify the potential political and economic catalysts coming down the pike and figure out which of these are potential Humpty Dumpty moments — crack-ups in the current system of global credit allocation that are too large for the central banks to piece back together again with their crisis acting and Narrative creation efforts. Then we need to track that Narrative effort so we can get the timing right on these massive catalysts.

    Because as any coup-launcher or Fed-fighter or volatility-embracer knows, if you’re wrong on timing … you’re just wrong.

  • Stop Drinking The Kool-Aid, America: Political Fiction In An Age Of Televised Lies

    Submitted by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    “We’ve got to face it. Politics have entered a new stage, the television stage. Instead of long-winded public debates, the people want capsule slogans—‘Time for a change’—‘The mess in Washington’—‘More bang for a buck’—punch lines and glamour.”— A Face in the Crowd (1957)

    Politics is entertainment.

    It is a heavily scripted, tightly choreographed, star-studded, ratings-driven, mass-marketed, costly exercise in how to sell a product—in this case, a presidential candidate—to dazzled consumers who will choose image over substance almost every time.

    This year’s presidential election, much like every other election in recent years, is what historian Daniel Boorstin referred to as a “pseudo-event”: manufactured, contrived, confected and devoid of any intrinsic value save the value of being advertised. It is the end result of a culture that is moving away from substance toward sensationalism in an era of mass media.

    As author Noam Chomsky rightly observed, “It is important to bear in mind that political campaigns are designed by the same people who sell toothpaste and cars.” In other words, we’re being sold a carefully crafted product by a monied elite who are masters in the art of making the public believe that they need exactly what is being sold to them, whether it’s the latest high-tech gadget, the hottest toy, or the most charismatic politician.

    Tune into a political convention and you will find yourself being sucked into an alternate reality so glossy, star-studded, emotionally charged and entertaining as to make you forget that you live in a police state. The elaborate stage show, the costumes, the actors, the screenplay, the lighting, the music, the drama: all carefully calibrated to appeal to the public’s need for bread and circuses, diversion and entertainment, and pomp and circumstance.

    Politics is a reality show, America’s favorite form of entertainment, dominated by money and profit, imagery and spin, hype and personality and guaranteed to ensure that nothing in the way of real truth reaches the populace.

    After all, who cares about police shootings, drone killings, SWAT team raids, asset forfeiture schemes, private prisons, school-to-prison pipelines, overcriminalization, censorship or any of the other evils that plague our nation when you can listen to the croonings of Paul Simon, laugh along with Sarah Silverman, and get misty-eyed over the First Lady’s vision of progress in America.

    But make no mistake: Americans only think they’re choosing the next president.

    In truth, however, they’re engaging in the illusion of participation culminating in the reassurance ritual of voting. It’s just another Blue Pill, a manufactured reality conjured up by the matrix in order to keep the populace compliant and convinced that their vote counts and that they still have some influence over the political process.

    Stop drinking the Kool-Aid, America.

    The nation is drowning in debt, crippled by a slowing economy, overrun by militarized police, swarming with surveillance, besieged by endless wars and a military industrial complex intent on starting new ones, and riddled with corrupt politicians at every level of government. All the while, we’re arguing over which corporate puppet will be given the honor of stealing our money, invading our privacy, abusing our trust, undermining our freedoms, and shackling us with debt and misery for years to come.

    Nothing taking place on Election Day will alleviate the suffering of the American people.

    The government as we have come to know it—corrupt, bloated and controlled by big-money corporations, lobbyists and special interest groups—will remain unchanged. And “we the people”—overtaxed, overpoliced, overburdened by big government, underrepresented by those who should speak for us and blissfully ignorant of the prison walls closing in on us—will continue to trudge along a path of misery.

    With roughly 22 lobbyists per Congressman, corporate greed will continue to call the shots in the nation’s capital, while our elected representatives will grow richer and the people poorer. And elections will continue to be driven by war chests and corporate benefactors rather than such values as honesty, integrity and public service. Just consider: it’s estimated that more than $5 billion will be spent on the elections this year, yet not a dime of that money will actually help the average American in their day-to-day struggles to just get by.

    And the military industrial complex will continue to bleed us dry. Since 2001 Americans have spent $10.5 million every hour for numerous foreign military occupations, including in Iraq and Afghanistan. There’s also the $2.2 million spent every hour on maintaining the United States’ nuclear stockpile, and the $35,000 spent every hour to produce and maintain our collection of Tomahawk missiles. And then there’s the money the government exports to other countries to support their arsenals, at the cost of $1.61 million every hour for the American taxpayers.

    Then again, when faced with the grim, seemingly hopeless reality of the American police state, it’s understandable why Americans might opt for escapism. “Humankind cannot bear too much reality,” T. S. Eliot once said. Perhaps that is one reason we are so drawn to the unreality of the American political experience: it is spectacle and fiction and farce all rolled up into one glossy dose of escapism.

    Frankly, escapism or not, Americans should be mad as hell.

    Many of our politicians live like kings. Chauffeured around in limousines, flying in private jets and eating gourmet meals, all paid for by the American taxpayer, they are far removed from those they represent. Such a luxurious lifestyle makes it difficult to identify with the “little guy”—the roofers, plumbers and blue-collar workers who live from paycheck to paycheck and keep the country running with their hard-earned dollars and the sweat of their brows.

    Conveniently, politicians only seem to remember their constituents in the months leading up to an election, and yet “we the people” continue to take the abuse, the neglect, the corruption and the lies. We make excuses for the shoddy treatment, we cover up for them when they cheat on us, and we keep hoping that if we just stick with them long enough, eventually they’ll treat us right.

    People get the government they deserve.

    No matter who wins the presidential election come November, it’s a sure bet that the losers will be the American people.

    As political science professor Gene Sharp notes in starker terms, “Dictators are not in the business of allowing elections that could remove them from their thrones.” As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, the Establishment—the shadow government and its corporate partners that really run the show, pull the strings and dictate the policies, no matter who occupies the Oval Office—are not going to allow anyone to take office who will unravel their power structures. Those who have attempted to do so in the past have been effectively put out of commission.

    So what is the solution to this blatant display of imperial elitism disguising itself as a populist exercise in representative government?

    Stop playing the game. Stop supporting the system. Stop defending the insanity. Just stop.

    Washington thrives on money, so stop giving them your money. Stop throwing your hard-earned dollars away on politicians and Super PACs who view you as nothing more than a means to an end. There are countless worthy grassroots organizations and nonprofits working in your community to address real needs like injustice, poverty, homelessness, etc. Support them and you’ll see change you really can believe in in your own backyard.

    Politicians depend on votes, so stop giving them your vote unless they have a proven track record of listening to their constituents, abiding by their wishes and working hard to earn and keep their trust.

    Stop buying into the lie that your vote matters. Your vote doesn’t elect a president. Despite the fact that there are 218 million eligible voters in this country (only half of whom actually vote), it is the electoral college, made up of 538 individuals handpicked by the candidates’ respective parties, that actually selects the next president. The only thing you’re accomplishing by taking part in the “reassurance ritual” of voting is sustaining the illusion that we have a democratic republic. What we have is a dictatorship, or as political scientists Martin Gilens and Benjamin Page more accurately term it, we are suffering from an “economic élite domination.”

    A healthy, representative government is hard work. It takes a citizenry that is informed about the issues, educated about how the government operates, and willing to make the sacrifices necessary to stay involved, whether that means forgoing Monday night football in order to attend a city council meeting or risking arrest by picketing in front of a politician’s office.

    It takes a citizenry willing to do more than grouse and complain. We must act—and act responsibly—keeping in mind that the duties of citizenship extend beyond the act of voting.

    Most of all, it takes a citizenry that cares enough to get mad and get active. As Howard Beale declares in the 1976 film Network:

    “I want you to get up right now, sit up, go to your windows, open them and stick your head out and yell, ‘I’m as mad as hell and I’m not going to take this anymore.’ Things have got to change. But first, you’ve gotta get mad!…You’ve got to say, ‘I’m as mad as hell, and I’m not going to take this anymore!’ Then we’ll figure out what to do about the depression and the inflation and the oil crisis. But first get up out of your chairs, open the window, stick your head out, and yell, and say it.”

     

  • Yen Plunges On Yet Another Strawman Headline About Stimulus, Then Surges On Denial

    Update: Well that didn't last long…

    Livesquawk: Japan Ministry of Finance say it is not true they are considering 50yr bonds – debunking earlier WSJ story –Rtrs

     

    Who could have seen that denial coming?

    *  *  *

     

    USDJPY just spiked back over 106.00 after headlines suggesting Japanese PM Shinzo Abe will unveil new stimulus as soon as today. News reports on 27t yen fiscal stimulus and issuance of 50-year bond, both spur yen selling, says David Lu, HK-based director at NBC Financial Markets Asia. We suspect there will be some disappointment after the algos are finished as FNN reports the package will include 13t yen of low-interest loans (so a smaller helicopter than expected) and besides, it's not like the Japanese are suffering from rates being too high.

    Abe wil speak today at 0400GMT – no confirmation yet as to whether the stimulus will be the topic.

    As one analyst noted, it appears Abe pre-announced the stimulus package. It looks like psuedo debt monetization is on the way, if as expected, the BoJ will buy these 'low interest loans'. But of course, direct debt monetization will never be admitted to… or will it?

     

    The question is – will this be it? Or is this to strawman the size once again to see if the market (for that is all that matters) will be satiated by Abe's promises.

  • NSA Whistleblower: Not So Fast On Claims Russia Behind Hillary Clinton Email Hack

    The mainstream media alleges that Russia was behind the hack of Hillary Clinton’s emails.

    The media is parading out the usual suspects alleged experts to back up this claim.

    Washington’s Blog asked the highest-level NSA whistleblower in history, William Binney – the NSA executive who created the agency’s mass surveillance program for digital information, who served as the senior technical director within the agency, who managed six thousand NSA employees, the 36-year NSA veteran widely regarded as a “legend” within the agency and the NSA’s best-ever analyst and code-breaker, who mapped out the Soviet command-and-control structure before anyone else knew how, and so predicted Soviet invasions before they happened (“in the 1970s, he decrypted the Soviet Union’s command system, which provided the US and its allies with real-time surveillance of all Soviet troop movements and Russian atomic weapons”) – what he thinks of such claims:

    Edward Snowden says the NSA could easily determine who hacked Hillary Clinton’s emails.

     

    But mainstream media say it couldn’t:   http://www.businessinsider.com/dnc-hack-russian-government-2016-7

     

    The mainstream media is also trumpeting the meme that Russia was behind the hack, because it wants to help Trump get elected. In other words, the media is trying to deflect how damaging the email leaks are to Clinton’s character by trying to somehow associate Trump with Putin.

     

    See e.g. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/26/us/politics/kremlin-donald-trump-vladimir-putin.html

     

    Who’s right?

    Binney responded:

    Snowden is right and the MSM is clueless. Here’s what I said to Ray McGovern and VIPS with a little humor at the end. [McGovern is a 27-year CIA veteran, who chaired National Intelligence Estimates and personally delivered intelligence briefings to Presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush, their Vice Presidents, Secretaries of State, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and many other senior government officials. McGovern is co-founder of Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (“VIPS” for short).]

     

    Ray, I am suspicious that they may have looked for known hacking code (used by Russians). And, I’m sure they were one probably of many to hack her stuff. But, does that mean that they checked to see if others also hacked in?

     

    Further, do they have evidence that the Russians downloaded and later forwarded those emails to wikileaks? Seems to me that they need to answer those questions to be sure that their assertion is correct. Otherwise, HRC and her political activities are and I am sure have been prime targets for the Russians (as well as many others) but without intent of course.

     

    I would add that we proposed to do a program that would monitor all activity on the world-wide NSA network back in 1991/92. We called it “Wellgrounded.” NSA did not want anyone (especially congress) to know what was going on inside NSA and therefore rejected that proposal. I have not read what Ed has said, but, I do know that every line of code that goes across the network is logged in the network log. This is where a little software could scan, analyze and find the intruders initially and then compile all the code sent by them to determine the type of attack. This is what we wanted to do back in 1991/92.

    The newest allegation tying the Clinton email hack to Russia seems to be all innuendo.

    Binney explained to us:

     My problem is that they have not listed intruders or attempted intrusions to the DNC site.  I suspect that’s because they did a quick and dirty look for known attacks.

     

    Of course, this brings up another question; if it’s a know attack, why did the DNC not have software to stop it?  You can tell from the network log who is going into a site.  I used that on networks that I had.  I looked to see who came into my LAN, where they went, how long they stayed and what they did while in my network.

     

    Further, if you needed to, you could trace back approaches through other servers etc. Trace Route and Trace Watch are good examples of monitoring software that help do these things.  Others of course exist … probably the best are in NSA/GCHQ and the other Five Eyes countries.  But, these countries have no monopoly on smart people that could do similar detection software.

     

    Question is do they want to fix the problems with existing protection software.  If the DNC and OPM are examples, then obviously, they don’t care to fix weakness probably because the want to use these weaknesses to their own advantage.

    Why is this newsworthy?

    Well, the mainstream narrative alleges that the Clinton emails are not important … and that it’s a conspiracy between Putin and Trump to make sure Trump – and not Clinton – is elected.

    But there are other issues, as well …

    For example, an allegation of hacking could literally lead to war.

    So we should be skeptical of such serious and potentially far-reaching allegations – which may be true or may be false – unless and until they are proven.

  • FelonsVotesMatter (To Hillary) – Clinton's Election Fate In Virginia Lies With 200,000 Unregistered Offenders

    Reminding us once again that nothing is off limits to the Clintons when it comes to winning elections, Politico earlier today wrote about Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe’s (D) efforts to register 200,000 ex-felons to vote in November.  For reference, 200,000 is over 5% of the 3.8mm people who voted in the Presidential race in 2012 and is larger than Obama’s margin of victory over Mitt Romney of 149,298.

    Taking a play from Obama’s playbook, McAuliffe signed a sweeping executive order it April 2016 granting 206,000 felons in Virgina, who had completed their sentence, the right to vote.  We previously wrote about this order hereHillary Clinton, a long-time friend of Governor McAuliffe, was quick to express her approval of the executive order over twitter:

    That said, Virginia’s Supreme Court recently reversed McAuliffe’s executive order asserting that he had overstepped his authority to grant a blanket restoration of voting rights to all felons simultaneously.  Instead, the Supreme Court ruled that McAuliffe could only restore voting rights to each felon individually, a task that he vowed to start right away.  We have no doubt that Governor McAuliffe’s office will spend every resource necessary to, in fact, accomplish that goal.

    We have written about McAuliffe multiple times over the past couple of months including here and here.  That said, we’ve included below a brief summary of his checkered history and deep connection with the Clinton family.

    McAuliffe is a long-time Clinton confidant currently embrioled in a federal investigation surrounding certain questionable contributions from Chinese businessman Wang Wenliang.  As CNN recently reported:

    McAuliffe is the subject of an ongoing investigation by the FBI and prosecutors from the Justice Department’s public integrity unit [that] are thrusting him back into the spotlight. U.S. officials briefed on the probe say the investigation dates to at least last year and has focused, at least in part, on whether donations to his gubernatorial campaign violated the law, the officials said.

     

    Authorities are looking into $120,000 in donations Chinese businessman Wang Wenliang gave to McAuliffe through his American business.

     

    Foreign nationals are not allowed to donate to any American political campaign.  But McAuliffe said Wenliang holds a green card, which would make him eligible to make such contributions.

    If there is any question as to where McAuliffe’s loyalties lie, and by extension what his motivations were in signing this executive order, we would encourage you to take a look at this CNN article from May 2016.  CNN notes that McAuliffe often refers to Bill Clinton as his “best friend” and says that he was handpicked by the former President to be his chair of the Democratic National Committee.   CNN goes on to point out:

    The Clinton family played a big role in helping build McAuliffe’s political profile in Virginia. He initially ran for governor in 2009, despite spending very little time working with Virginia Democrats and
    after flirting with runs for governor in both Florida and New York.

     

    Former President Clinton made several campaign appearances for his friend in the run-up to the 2009 primary…

     

    the ties between the McAuliffe campaign of 2013 and the Clinton campaign of 2016 are extensive. Clinton’s campaign manager Robby Mook ran McAuliffe’s successful campaign for governor. The attorney representing McAuliffe in this matter [FBI investigation], Mark Elias, is also an attorney for the Clinton campaign. There are also several staffers on many levels working for Clinton that played key roles in the governor’s 2013 race.

    Finally, McAuliffe was quoted by CNN as saying:

    The thing I do every day to try and be the most helpful to Hillary Clinton is be a successful governor … I’m governor now. I’m not her campaign chairman anymore, I am the governor of the commonwealth and that’s what I spend my time doing.

    Technically, the absolute best thing you could do for Hillary Clinton would be to use her clout to get yourself elected governor of a critical swing state and then use your executive power in that state to sign sweeping changes to voting laws to help elect Hillary Preident…but we don’t like to split hairs.

  • Judge Rules Bitcoin Isn't Money Because It "Can't be Hidden Under A Mattress"

    Submitted by Everett Numbers via TheAntiMedia.org,

    In a landmark decision, a Florida judge dismissed charges of money laundering against a Bitcoin seller on Monday following expert testimony showing state law did not apply to the cryptocurrency.

    Michell Espinoza was charged with three felony charges related to money laundering in 2014, but what appears to have helped to clear him of any and all wrongdoing was testimony given just a few weeks ago by an economics professor.

    “This is the most fascinating thing I’ve heard in this courtroom in a long time,” Miami-Dade Circuit Judge Teresa Mary Pooler said after hearing Barry University professor Charles Evans present evidence during a May hearing that Bitcoin was more akin to“poker chips that people are willing to buy from you,” according to theMiami Herald.

    Evans was given $3,000 in Bitcoin by defense attorneys for sharing his expertise, the newspaper reported.

    Judge Pooler found the cryptocurrency, which is based on verified encrypted transactions that are recorded on a public ledger, did not constitute “tangible wealth” and“cannot be hidden under a mattress like cash and gold bars,” reported the Herald.

    Pooler added that Bitcoin was not codified by government, nor backed by any bank.

    “The court is not an expert in economics, however, it is very clear, even to someone with limited knowledge in the area, the Bitcoin has a long way to go before it the equivalent of money,” Pooler wrote in her decision.

     

    “This court is unwilling to punish a man for selling his property to another, when his actions fall under a statute that is so vaguely written that even legal professionals have difficulty finding a singular meaning,” she added.

    Espinoza, 33, was charged after undercover detectives bought $1,500 worth of Bitcoin from him, claiming they would use the currency to purchase stolen credit card numbers. However, Judge Pooler found the Florida law prosecutors based their case upon to be too “vague.”

    Another man, Pascal Reid, was arrested in tandem with Espinoza. Reid took an early plea deal, pleading guilty to acting as an unlicensed money broker. The deal required him to serve a probation sentence and educate law enforcement on the workings of Bitcoin.

    While Monday’s ruling comes as a relief to Espinoza, it remains to be seen what comes next in Bitcoin regulation. States continue to grapple with the issue, and at the federal level, regulation has stalled.  But Bitcoin enthusiasts have recently been more optimistic about a price surge, so the powers that be may move quickly if the virtual currency’s popularity resurges.

  • New Legislation Proposes To "Bail-In' Social Security

    Submitted by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

    It was only a few weeks ago that I told you about the government’s annual report on Social Security.

    It was a veritable death sentence for the program.

    The Board of Trustees for Social Security (which includes the US Treasury Secretary) wrote that major parts of the program have already run out of money, and the rest of Social Security will run out of money in the next decade.

    Amazing. Even Social Security knows that they’re bankrupt and unable to keep their promises to taxpayers.

    This is going to cause an unbelievable crisis in the United States.

    Think about it: half of Americans have ZERO retirement savings and will be fully dependent on the Social Security once they retire.

    But by the time their retirement comes, the program will have likely already run out of money.

    Well, the government has figured out a solution. And it’s genius.

    Two weeks ago a new bill was introduced on the floor of Congress that, just like all the other really dangerous legislation, i.e. USA PATRIOT Act, this bill has a catchy acronym.

    It’s called the SAVE UP Accounts Act, which stands for. . .

    . . . “Secure, Accessible, Valuable, Efficient Universal Pension Accounts Act”.

    I just tasted vomit in my mouth.

    In short, SAVE UP mandates certain employers and businesses in the United States, including many small businesses, to start contributing a fixed amount of money per employee into a brand new national retirement fund.

    Based on the contribution requirements and the average wage in the United States (about $50,000 annually), the bill is slapping a 2% wage tax on employers.

    Funny thing, employers are already paying 6.2% to Social Security.

    So an additional 2% tax effectively constitutes a 32% proportional increase.

    This idea is such a classic example of government thinking.

    Social Security is failing and will be unable to keep its promises to taxpayers in the next decade.

    So there’s a pretty convincing track record suggesting that government-managed retirement funds are a very bad idea.

    And yet the best solution these people can come up with is to raise your taxes, steal more money, and establish a brand new government-run retirement fund.

    Their logic is unbelievable: “If at first you don’t succeed, keep trying the same loser tactics.”

    Sadly, SAVE UP is not isolated.

    A similar bill was introduced in the US Senate a few months ago.

    The Senate version aims to create an “American Savings Account”, i.e. another national retirement fund to be managed by the government.

    Then, of course, there’s President Obama’s “MyRA” program, where workers contribute a portion of their paychecks to a retirement account managed by the federal government.

    And MyRA has already been launched.

    (The SAVE UP bill, by the way, could also make it mandatory for a business to sign up all of its employees for a government MyRA account.)

    The trend here is pretty clear.

    Social Security is rapidly running out of cash, and they’re solving the problem by having American citizens and businesses essentially “bail in” the program with higher taxes and more contributions to government retirement funds.

    And this is just what’s happening right now, at a time when very few people are paying attention to the problem.

    Just imagine how much more they’re going to steal once the looming Social Security bankruptcy becomes front-page news in a few years.

    Right now time is on your side. They’re not going to unveil any hideous new program tomorrow morning.

    But there are two key lessons to take away here:

    1) It’s imperative to consider these long-term “bail-in” implications and structure yourself accordingly.

     

    The more assets you keep within a bankrupt government’s jurisdiction, the more likely you are to become a victim of future taxation and confiscation.

     

    2) You absolutely cannot depend on the government for your retirement.

     

    These programs are going broke. That is not a sensational statement. It is a direct representation of the facts as they have been laid out by the Treasury Secretary of the United States.

    Again, time is on your side.

    If you invest it wisely, you can develop the skills to supplement your income in retirement (for example, how to generate extra income online), and how to manage your finances to generate higher returns while taking less risk.

    Education is the greatest tool we have to solve this retirement problem… as long as you start early.

  • Assange: "A Lot More Material" Will Be Released

    One month ago, when Wikileaks’ Julian Assange told ITV’s Richard Peston that he would publish “enough evidence” to indict Hillary Clinton, few took him seriously. And while Hillary has not been indicted – yet – last Friday’s leak has already managed to wreak havoc and has led to revelations of cronyism and collusion within the Democratic party and the media, the resignation of the DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz, as well as chaos on the first day of the Democratic convention.

    Hence, why we believe Assange will be taken more seriously this time.

    Earlier today, Assange told CNN that Wikileaks might release “a lot more material” relevant to the US electoral campaign. Assange spoke to CNN following the release of nearly 20,000 hacked Democratic National Committee emails.

    The topic then turned to the topic du jour: “did Putin do it”?

    Assange refused to confirm or deny a Russian origin for the mass email leak, saying Wikileaks tries to create ambiguity to protect all its sources.

    “Perhaps one day the source or sources will step forward and that might be an interesting moment some people may have egg on their faces. But to exclude certain actors is to make it easier to find out who our sources are,” Assange told CNN.

    The Kremlin has rejected allegations its behind the hacking, calling suggestions it ordered the release of the emails to influence US politics the “usual fun and games” of the US election campaigns, while the Russian foreign minister had an even simpler reaction to the same question: “I don’t want to use four-letter words.” Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, added, “This is not really good for bilateral relations.”

    All of this now appears to be irrelevant, and as we speculated earlier, the “anti-Russia” narrative is now in motion and moments ago Obama said that it’s ‘possible’ Putin is trying to sway vote for Trump.

    Which brings us to the next point: speaking from the Ecuadorian embassy in London, where he faces extradition over sexual assault allegations, Assange told CNN that Democratic Party officials were using the specter of Russian involvement to distract from the content of the emails, which have had tumultuous affect on the party at the start of its national convention, where it is expected to make Hillary Clinton its presidential nominee.

    “It raises questions about the natural instincts of Clinton that when confronted with a serious domestic political scandal, she tries to blame the Russians, blame the Chinese, et cetera,” Assange told CNN.

    “Because if she does that while in government, it could lead to problems,” he added.

    Actually Julian, she already has done that, most recently when the Inspector General accused her of violating State Department rules for maintaining a personal email server: her response – blame the state department for having an “anti-Clinton” bias, and use the oldest, or rather youngest, defense in the book, one used by young children everywhere: “others did it” (something which we subsequently learned was incorrect).

    Then again, when the entire objective press is engaged in a full court press to crush the messenger (or the source), and ignore the message, none of this matters.

    Assange’s full interview is below.

  • DNC Day 2: Raucous Roll-Call & Bubba Speaks – Live Feed

    If you thought yesterday was chaos – with Debbie down, moaning media, booing Bernie fans – today could start with another raucous rabble as the state roll-call vote will take place. Debbie Wassserman Schultz's just-as-biased replacement Donna Brazile will address the crowd (grab the popcorn), as will Nancy Pelosi, but the headliner of the night – surely there to doom-and-gloom more evil Trumpiness – is Bill Clinton.

     

    *  *  *

    Live Feed: (DNC due to 'gavel in' at 4pmET)

    *  *  *

    As ABC notes, here are the five biggest things to watch for today:

    Reeling From the Fallout

    The Democratic National Convention did not get off to a smooth start on Monday. The bumpy ride began with a last-minute switch of the opening speaker. Democratic National Committee Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz — who had announced that she would be stepping down after the convention because of the drama surrounding the leak of DNC emails, which appear to show party officials supporting Clinton over Sanders — was originally set to gavel the convention into session but then bowed out. Instead, Baltimore Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake formally started the convention. And at first, she forgot to use the gavel. After that, the first three hours were full of outbursts and boos from Sanders supporters.

    Roll Call Could Get Raucous

    The first hours of the convention were rowdy as the floor broke into jeers throughout several speakers’ addresses. The very first mention of Clinton sparked a round of “Bernie!” chants, which continued for much of the early part of the program. The state roll call vote on the nomination, scheduled for late this afternoon, is going to pose and even bigger opportunity for any disgruntled Sanders voters to show their displeasure. Both Clinton and Sanders have had their names placed into nomination for president at the convention. This is largely a technicality, since bound delegates will vote for their candidates even if a name isn't in nomination. But it's a symbolic gesture for his supporters, and per party rules, it means more Sanders time on the convention floor today.

    Maternal Movement

    One of the more emotional moments among tonight’s speeches will likely come when the Mothers of the Movement take the stage. The group, consisting of women who have lost their children to gun violence or excessive police force, includes Trayvon Martin’s mom, Sybrina Fulton; Michael Brown’s mother, Lezley McSpadden; and Eric Garner’s mother, Gwen Carr. The circumstances of their children’s deaths may be different, but all the women have endorsed Clinton’s campaign.

    Protests in Philadelphia

    PHOTO: Bernie Sanders supporters yell across a police line during a protest at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia, July 25, 2016.
     

    Hundreds of protesters took to the streets in Philadelphia on Monday, and the drama in the city and outside the convention center seems unlikely to let up. The demonstrations have generally been bigger than the ones held last week during the Republican National Convention. As in Cleveland, there have not been significant reports of violence. There were no arrests as of Monday night, but multiple people were detained, police told ABC.

    Bill Clinton Takes the Stage

    PHOTO: Former President Bill Clinton addresses the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, N.C., on Sept. 5, 2012.  

    One of Hillary Clinton’s most active surrogates was been her husband, former President Bill Clinton, and now he’s headed to the main stage. He arrived in Philadelphia on Monday and attended a reception for members of Congress. Clinton has a history of making an impact at Democratic conventions. In his lauded speech at the 2012 gathering in Charlotte, North Carolina, he made a 48-minute, wonky case for President Barack Obama’s re-election.

    *  *  *

    Full order of business (via NJ.com):

    The list of speakers released by the Democratic National Committee is incomplete. Clinton's running mate, Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine, has yet to be added to the schedule, as well as many of the federal and state elected officials,who were announced as speakers on Thursday.

    Here is the current schedule:

    Monday, July 25

    Session begins at 4 p.m.

    • Pam Livengood of Keene, N.H., whose daughter struggles with drug addiction
    • Karla and Francisca Ortiz of Las Vegas. Karla is an American citizen but Francisca, her mother, is undocumented
    • Anastasia Somoza of New York, an advocate for Americans with disabilities
    • Astrid Silva, an undocumented immigrant who came to the U.S. as a child
    • Rep. Keith Ellison of Minnesota
    • National Education Association President Lily Eskelsen Garcia
    • Rep. Raul Grijalva of Arizona
    • Iowa Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal and candidates of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee
    • SEIU President Mary Kay Henry
    • Rep. Joe Kennedy of Massachusetts
    • Connecticut Gov. Dannel Malloy, chair of the Democratic Governors Association
    • Building Trades President Sean McGarvey
    • U.S. Sen. Jeff Merkley of Oregon
    • Rep. Linda Sanchez of California and members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus
    • AFSCME President Lee Saunders
    • AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka
    • American Federation of Teachers President Randi Weingarten
    • U.S. Sen. Cory Booker
    • U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont
    • First Lady Michelle Obama

    Tuesday, July 26

    The session begins at 4 p.m.

    • Thaddeus Desmond, a Philadelphia advocate for children
    • Dynah Haubert, a Philadelphia lawyer for a disability rights organization
    • Kate Burdick, a lawyer at the Juvenile Law Center in Philadelphia
    • Anton Moore of Philadelphia, who founded a nonprofit community group to talk to youth about gun violence
    • Dustin Parsons of Little Rock, Ark., a fifth grade teacher
    • Students from Eagle Academy in New York City and Newark for at-risk youth
    • Joe Sweeney, a New York City police detective who responded to 9/11
    • Lauren Manning, a former executive and partner at Cantor Fitzgerald who was wounded in the World Trade Center attack on 9/11
    • Ryan Moore, originally from South Sioux City, Neb., who has a health condition that hie father's employer refused to cover
    • Donna Brazile, Democratic National Committee vice chair of voter registration and participation
    • Former Georgia state Sen. Jason Carter
    • House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi of California and the Democratic women of the House, including Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman of New Jersey's 12th District.
    • Planned Parenthood Action Fund President Cecile Richards
    • President Bill Clinton, husband of Hillary Clinton
    • Mothers of the Movement, mothers who lost their children to gun violence or to enounters with law enforcement.

    Wednesday, July 27

    The session will begin at 4:30 p.m.

    • Erica Smegielski, whose mother Dawn was the principal of Sandy Hook Elementary School in Connecticut and was one of 26 people killed in the 2012 mass shooting there
    • Felicia Sanders and Polly Sheppard, two of the three survivors of the 2015 shooting at a black church in Charleston, S.C., which killed nine
    • Jamie Dorff, whose husband, an Army helicopter pilot from Minnesota, died while on a search and rescue mission in northern Iraq
    • Rep. G.K. Butterfield of North Carolina and members of the Congressional Black Caucus
    • Rep. Judy Chu of California and members of the Congressional Asian Pacific American Caucus
    • NARAL President Ilyse Hogue
    • Retired Navy Rear Adm. John Hutson 
    • Civil rights leader Jesse Jackson
    • Rep. Ben Ray Lujan of New Mexco and candidates of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee
    • Former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta
    • Former Philadelphia Police Commissioner Charles Ramsey
    • EMILY's List President Stephanie Schriock
    • Center for American Progress Action Fund President Neera Tanden
    • Vice President Joe Biden
    • President Barack Obama

    Thursday, July 28

    The session begins at 4:30 p.m.

    • Henrietta Ivey, a Michigan home care worker who advocates for a $15 an hour minimum wage.
    • Beth Mathias of Ohio, who works two jobs
    • Jensen Walcott and Jake Reed. Walcott was fired from her job in Bonner Springs, Kan., for asking why her co-worker, and friend,  Reed, made more than she did for the same job
    • Khizr Khan, whose son, , Humayun S. M. Khan, is one of 14 American Muslims killed after 9/11 serving in the U.S. Armed Forces
    • Retired Marine Corps Gen. John Allen, who commanded U.S. forces in Afghanistan
    • Candidates of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee
    • Human Rights Campaign President Chad Griffin
    • League of Conservation Voters President Gene Karpinski
    • Rep. Sea Patrick Maloney of New York, co-chair of the Congressional LGBT Equality Caucus, and LGBT rights activist Sarah McBride
    • U.S. Sen. Barbara Mikulski of Maryland and Democratic women of the Senate
    • Chelsea Clinton, Clinton's daughter
    • Former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, presumptive Democratic nominee

    Finally, there is one 'unified' group that Hillary can rely upon…

    h/t @Mark412NH

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Today’s News 26th July 2016

  • "Credible Evidence" Shows Turkish Authorities Raped And Tortured Detainees Since 'Failed' Coup

    Via MiddleEastEye.net,

    Human rights group Amnesty International said on Sunday it had "credible evidence" of abuse and torture of people detained in sweeping arrests since Turkey's 15 July attempted military coup.

    The London-based group said some of those being held were being "subjected to beatings and torture, including rape, in official and unofficial detention centres in the country".

    Amnesty said more than 10,000 people have been detained since the attempted coup, and the group called for independent monitors to be granted access to detention sites across Turkey.

    Amnesty raised serious allegations of mistreatment against Turkish police, who they said have held detainees in “stress positions, denied them food, water and medical treatment, verbally abused and threatened them, and subjected them to beatings and torture, including rape and sexual assault”.

    Two lawyers working in the capital Ankara on behalf of detainees told Amnesty they witnessed “senior military officers in detention being raped with a truncheon or finger by police officers”.

    Another source told Amnesty between 650 and 800 soldiers have been detained at the Ankara police headquarters sports hall. The source said “at least 300 of the detainees showed signs of having been beaten”.

    “Reports of abuse including beatings and rape in detention are extremely alarming, especially given the scale of detentions that we have seen in the past week. The grim details that we have documented are just a snapshot of the abuses that might be happening in places of detention,” said Amnesty International’s Europe director John Dalhuisen.

    "It is absolutely imperative that the Turkish authorities halt these abhorrent practices and allow international monitors to visit all these detainees in the places they are being held.”

    A Turkish official, who asked to remain anonymous, told MEE that the government rejects Amnesty's allegations of mistreating detainees.

    "We categorically deny the allegations and encourage advocacy groups to provide an unbiased account of the legal steps that are being taken against people who murdered nearly 250 civilians in cold blood," the official said.

     

    "The idea that Turkey, a country seeking EU membership, would not respect the law is absurd. Just yesterday we released 1,200 military personnel because all we care about is concrete evidence of complicity in this grave assault against our democracy."

    Since the failed coup, a total of 13,165 people have been detained, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said late on Saturday.

    This included 8,838 soldiers, 2,101 judges and prosecutors, 1,485 police officers and 689 civilians.

    At least 123 generals and admirals have also been jailed, Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim said.

    Amnesty said that while Turkey has legitimate security concerns in light of the attempted coup, abuses of human rights are never acceptable. 

    "Turkey is understandably concerned with public security at the moment, but no circumstances can ever justify torture and other ill-treatment or arbitrary detention," Dalhuisen said.

    Speaking at a unity rally held in Istanbul on Sunday evening, opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu told huge crowds of people from across the Turkish political spectrum that mistreatment of detainees "shouldn't be allowed".

    The leader of the centre-left CHP said, without specifically mentioning the Amnesty report: "The state cannot be run based on hate and vengeance. The rule of law needs to prevail. Torture, pressure in response will put state and putschists on same page and shouldn’t be allowed."

  • Hillary Clinton Is In Deep Trouble: "Hordes Of Wall Street Executives" Descend Upon Philly

    Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

    Political pundits throughout the land are tripping over each other to compose the latest bland, uninsightful screed proclaiming the death of the Republican Party. This makes sense, because the primary purpose of a political pundit is to state the obvious years after it’s already become established fact to everyone actually paying attention.

     

    Yes, of course, Trump winning the GOP nomination marks the end of the party as we know it. After all, some neocons are already publicly and actively throwing their support behind Hillary. While this undoubtably represents a major turning point in U.S. political history, many pundits have yet to appreciate that the exact same thing is happening within the Democratic Party. It’s just not completely obvious yet.

     

    – From February’s post: It’s Not Just the GOP – The Democratic Party is Also Imploding

    I believe Hillary Clinton lost the Presidency this past week. While the explosive DNC leaks will undoubtably have a long lasting effect, this post will barely reference the leaks. Rather, it will explain how recent decisions by the Hillary campaign played right into Trump’s hands by essentially waving a gigantic middle finger to the 73% of Americans who think the country is headed in the wrong direction.

    What Hillary Clinton did in selecting Tim Kaine as VP was send a clear signal that not only is she the status quo candidate, she is proud of it. She didn’t just double down on being the establishment candidate, she tripled and quadrupled down. There is now no denying that Hillary Clinton is implicitly running on only two themes.

    1. Trump is scary. I am not Trump.

     

    2. Things aren’t really bad. I’ll continue along the path we’ve been on.

    This message will result in a guaranteed loss against an opponent who is telling the American public “I know you’re angry, I’m angry too, and I’m going to blow up the status quo.” Recall that 73% of the U.S. public thinks the country is headed in the wrong direction. As the Wall Street Journal noted:

    Some 73% in the new survey say things have gone off-course, with only 18% saying the nation is headed in the right direction.

     

    Numbers such as those are usually seen in times of national crisis, such as during the government shutdown of 2013, when only 14% said the nation was on-course, or during the 2008 financial crisis, when 11% said things were headed in the right direction.

    In this post, I will prove that Hillary is signaling a “business as usual” approach to the status quo, and in return, the status quo is uniformly and excitedly rallying around her. This will disgust most Americans and lead to a Trump victory. People who dislike Trump more than Clinton will vote for him anyway, because they dislike the status quo even more.

    So let’s take a look at Tim Kaine, starting with the topic of banks. Here are a few excerpts from a recent Huffington Post article titled, Tim Kaine Calls To Deregulate Banks As He Campaigns To Be Clinton’s VP:

    Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) is on Hillary Clinton’s short list of potential vice presidential nominees. He’s also actively pushing bank deregulation this week as he campaigns for the job.

     

    Kaine signed two letters on Monday urging federal regulators to go easy on banks ? one to help big banks dodge risk management rules, and another to help small banks avoid consumer protection standards.

     

    As Kaine joins the deregulatory fight, several other lawmakers are pushing the CFPB in the opposite direction. On Wednesday, 28 senators sent a letter to the agency urging them to toughen up their new rule against abusive payday lending. Kaine didn’t sign it.

    Moving along, what about the TPP, where does Mr. Kaine stand there?

    Here’s a hint from the Intercept’s recent article, Hours Before Hillary Clinton’s VP Decision, Likely Pick Tim Kaine Praises the TPP:

    Hillary Clinton’s rumored vice presidential pick Sen. Tim Kaine defended his vote for fast-tracking the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on Thursday.

     

    Kaine, who spoke to The Intercept after an event at a Northern Virginia mosque, praised the agreement as an improvement of the status quo, but maintained that he had not yet decided how to vote on final approval of the agreement. By contrast, Hillary Clinton has qualified her previous encouragement of the agreement, and now says she opposes it.

     

    Kaine’s measured praise of the agreement could signal one of two things. Either he is out of the running for the vice presidential spot, as his position on this major issue stands in opposition to hers. Or, by picking him, Clinton is signaling that her newly declared opposition to the agreement is not sincere. The latter explanation would confirm the theory offered by U.S. Chamber of Commerce head Tom Donohue, among others, who has said that Clinton is campaigning against the TPP for political reasons but would ultimately implement the deal.

    Banking and fake free trade deals are two topics that get Americans animated across the ideological spectrum, and by selecting Tim Kaine, Hillary is not so subtly telling her donors not to pay attention to any anti-establishement rhetoric that may come out of her mouth during the campaign. She signaling that she knows the status quo has her back, and she has theirs.

    Unsurprisingly, the oligarchs and their lobbyists who run the show and craft policies behind the scenes have gotten the message loud and clear. How can I be so certain? Let me give you a few examples.

    First, let’s take a look at the extent to which lobbyists generally are embracing Clinton as opposed to shunning Trump. From The Hill:

    Lobbyists are being welcomed back into the fold of the Democratic Party as the Obama era draws to a close.

     

    President Obama campaigned heavily against special interests in 2008 and put in place several new policies limiting their service in his administration. The Democratic National Committee (DNC) banned lobbyist contributions, and lobbyists began complaining of a stigma — a “scarlet L” — being attached unfairly to their industry.

     

    Times appear to be changing, though, with the outward hostility to the K Street crowd thawing.

     

    Presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton has accepted more than $9 million in bundled donations from registered lobbyists, while the DNC has rolled back the lobbyist bans that Obama put into place.

     

    “In 2008 and 2012, there was no integration with the [Obama] campaign,” said Al Mottur, a senior Democratic lobbyist at Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck, adding that he would have liked to have helped. “Now, the campaign is welcoming — they’re open to us. That’s why I’ve done as much work for her as I’ve done on her behalf.”

     

    Lobbyist bundlers have contributed to Clinton’s massive donor advantage over the Republican nominee, Donald Trump.

     

    Clinton’s bundler policy also gives lobbyists hope that she may reverse Obama’s policies, issued via executive order, that were intended to slow down what he called the “revolving door” between government and the private sector.

     

    “There are a lot of people on K Street who certainly hope she would” reverse or ignore an executive order signed by Obama aimed at limiting registered lobbyists from getting jobs in the White House, said Mary Beth Stanton of Heather Podesta + Partners.

     

    “With the anti-Washington sentiment of this campaign … it wouldn’t be something that would be discussed today,” she added. “That’s a staffing issue, and that’s not something that they’ll decide until they have to.”

    In other words, we know she’ll have our back in office even if she has to pretend to dislike us to get elected.

    For 2016, the DNC reversed the prohibition on lobbyist cash entirely, both for the party and the convention, giving corporations and lobbyists the opportunity to participate fully.

     

    Trump’s controversial campaign had a tangible effect on the Republican convention last week in Cleveland.

     

    Many companies skipped the event and declined to make donations for fear of being associated with the businessman’s controversial rhetoric. Several Republican lobbyists who did come to Cleveland told The Hill that they would be taking care of business for clients and out as quickly as possible.

     

    Clinton’s candidacy is also a draw for those on K Street, many of whom have been involved with the family for years.

     

    “The community is supporting her, there is no question about that,” said David Castagnetti of Mehlman Castagnetti Rosen & Thomas. His firm is also kicking off the convention with a party on Monday.

    While disgusting, that’s nothing compared to the following excerpts from the Politico article titled, Wall Street Takes a Road Trip to Philadelphia. Brace yourselves…

    NEW YORK — Wall Street is taking the Acela down to Philadelphia this week.

     

    Hordes of industry executives will descend on the city to celebrate Hillary Clinton’s nomination for president and renew close associations that vexed the Democratic standard-bearer throughout her primary battle with Bernie Sanders.

     

    Goldman Sachs, which paid Clinton millions for private speeches, will be well represented in Philadelphia with executives Jake Siewert, a former Bill Clinton press secretary, making the trip along with Steven Barg, Michael Paese, Joyce Brayboy and Jennifer Scully, who was a major fundraiser for Bill Clinton in New York in 1992.

     

    Blackstone, one of the nation’s largest private equity firms, will hold an official reception in Philadelphia on Thursday featuring its president, Tony James, sometimes mentioned as a possible Treasury Secretary in a Clinton administration. 

    Recall: Here Come the Cronies – Buffett and Blackstone President Launch $33,400 a Plate Hillary Clinton Fundraiser

    Hedge fund managers and top Democratic donors including Avenue Capital’s Marc Lasry and Boston Provident’s Orin Kramer will also be on the scene as will Morgan Stanley executive and former top Clinton aide Tom Nides. Executives from Citigroup, JPMorganChase and other large banks will also prowl the streets and bar rooms of Philadelphia.

     

    The financial contingent will be in an especially good mood following Clinton’s selection of Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine as her running mate. Kaine has shown a willingness to fight for regional bank relief from the Dodd-Frank financial reform law. But more than that, he’s not Elizabeth Warren, the potential VP pick that long had Wall Street terrified.

     

    Republicans with ties to the financial industry will also be there, a sharp contrast to Donald Trump’s convention in Cleveland, which Wall Street largely shunned over fears of the GOP nominee’s populist agenda on trade, immigration and Wall Street reform.

     

    The banker anxiety only grew during Trump’s convention as the party rolled out a platform plank calling for the re-imposition of a Depression-era Glass-Steagall law that could force banks to break up into smaller pieces. 

    See: GOP Includes Reinstatement of Glass-Steagall Into Party Platform

    Wall Street groaned as Clinton moved to the left during the primary —especially on trade — but the industry remains far more comfortable with the idea of another President Clinton in the White House than a President Trump.

     

    “I think she has shown perhaps ironically that she has a better understanding of business and Wall Street than Donald Trump does,” said Steve Rattner, an investment banker and Democratic donor who will make the short Acela ride down to Philly. “The GOP platform includes reinstating Glass-Steagall. And when you watched that [Trump acceptance] speech, Bernie Sanders could have given half of it. Putting partisanship aside, most of my Republican business friends are appalled at the thought of Donald Trump in the White House.” 

     

    What braindead Rattner fails to understand is the majority of the American public despise him and his crony “business friends,” and will actively vote to keep them as far away from power as possible.

    So while the Clinton camp won’t boast about it given the continuing unpopularity of Wall Street and the populist tilt of the electorate, the City of Brotherly Love will be the City of Banker Love this week. The Clinton campaign did not respond to a request for a comment.

     

    Trump is likely to try to continue to exploit Clinton’s connections to the banking industry. On Saturday following the Kaine selection, Trump Tweeted: “Tim Kaine is, and always has been, owned by the banks. Bernie supporters are outraged, was their last choice. Bernie fought for nothing!”

     

    “Wall Street doesn’t really side with a party based only on where regulation is going. We live in an environment where we know there is regulation and that we are under scrutiny,” said Robert Wolf, an investment banker and major Democratic fundraiser who will be in Philadelphia. “The bottom line is that if the economy does better, finance does better and everyone does better.”

     

    Clinton has not showed Sanders’ ability to tap into a massive grassroots network of small donors and remains reliant on Wall Street cash to fund her campaign, making it difficult for her to shun bankers at her convention.

     

    According to the Center for Responsive Politics, Clinton and outside groups supporting her have raised $375 million so far in the 2016 cycle. The securities and investment industry is one of her top sources of cash, donating $40 million to her cause so far, according to the CRP.

     

    But in the background, the “Rubin wing” of the Democratic Party, named for Wall Street executive and former Bill Clinton Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, will be circulating through panel discussions, Democratic party committee events and cocktail parties.

     

    Larry Summers, a Harvard professor and former Rubin protégé who also served as Treasury Secretary under Bill Clinton, will take part in a POLITICO discussion on the economy on Wednesday along with Neera Tanden, a close Hillary Clinton adviser and president and CEO of the Center for American Progress, a think-tank some on the left now view as too centrist.

    Make no mistake about it, if you think the Obama administration represents a bunch of oligarch-coddling banker puppets, you ain’t seen nothing yet.

    But there’s more. Incredibly, the DNC has decided it would be wise to have billionaire New York City oligarch, Michael Bloomberg, speak at the convention. This is a man with extraordinarily deep ties to big finance, a  man who was a fierce proponent of “stop and frisk” while mayor of NYC, and the biggest Wall Street apologist alive. Yet this is the man Hillary Clinton’s team is parading out as some sort of hero.

    As Bloomberg itself reports:

    Michael Bloomberg will endorse Hillary Clinton in a prime-time speech at the Democratic National Convention on Wednesday, a timely boost as the candidate prepares to accept her party’s nomination for president.

     

    “As the nation’s leading independent and a pragmatic business leader Mike has supported candidates from both sides of the aisle,” said Howard Wolfson, an adviser to Bloomberg and a former spokesman for Clinton’s 2008 campaign. “This week in Philadelphia he will make a strong case that the clear choice in this election is Hillary Clinton.”

    Of course Bloomberg has supported Republicans and Democrats. That’s what oligarchs do.

    The endorsement from the former mayor of New York City could resonate with swing voters and Republicans who haven’t warmed to their party’s nominee, Donald Trump.

     

    “Given her demographic targets, Bloomberg is good get for @HillaryClinton,” David Axelrod, chief strategist for Barack Obama’s two successful presidential campaigns, said on Twitter.

    The above paragraphs demonstrate perfectly just how mired in a bubble of corruption and cluelessness these people really are. Despite Trump winning the Republican nomination, despite him now leading Hillary in the polls, they still don’t get it. The idea that Wall Street cheerleader and billionaire oligarch Michael Bloomberg has any appeal to the 73% of Americans who think the country is headed in the wrong direction is absolutely preposterous.

    But the cluelessness extends to those who are not merely Hillary Clinton sycophants. For example, take this excerpt from a recent post by Robert Reich, who fiercely supported Bernie Sanders in the primary:

    This week’s essay: Does Hillary Get It?

     

    Does Hillary Clinton understand that the biggest divide in American politics is no longer between the right and the left, but between the anti-establishment and the establishment?

    I worry she doesn’t – at least not yet.

    I’m sorry Robert, but could you possibly be more delusional? How can you think someone who doesn’t understand the above at this point in time is qualified to be President.

    Then, later on in the post, he makes the following suggestion:

    Hillary Clinton doesn’t need to move toward the “middle.” In fact, such a move could hurt her if it’s perceived to be compromising the stances she took in the primaries in order to be more acceptable to Democratic movers and shakers.

     

    She needs to move instead toward the anti-establishment – forcefully committing herself to getting big money out of politics, and making the system work for the many rather than a privileged few.

    Here was my Twitter response to this absurd notion:

    Meanwhile, it’s time to admit that a material percentage of Bernie Sanders supporters will not be rallying behind Clinton. A combination of her choice of Tim Kaine as VP, and the DNC leaks, virtually guarantee that this will not happen.

    Indeed, I thought the following paragraph from a Wall Street Journal article summed it up perfectly:

    But at the pro-Sanders rally, attendees were more than eager to list the reasons that Mrs. Clinton deserved to be incarcerated. At least once during a four-mile march from City Hall to Roosevelt Park, rallygoers began loudly chanting “Lock her up!” — the same chant heard on the floor of the RNC.

    Interestingly, it appears the only thing an extremely polarized American public actually agrees on is that Hillary Clinton should be locked up.

    Going forward, I fully expect Hillary to get a bump after Obama speaks at the DNC convention later this week. Moreover, with a guy as volatile and disliked as Trump as her opponent, there will be many ups and downs in the months ahead. Nevertheless, I think Hillary Clinton lost both the momentum and the election this past week, never to fully recover.

  • Snowden Explains How To Get To The Bottom Of "Who Hacked The Democrats"

    With the scandals plaguing the Democratic National Convention – set to start in just over an hour – get stronger, so does the narrative that it was all Russia’s fault the Democratic party was hacked.

    As a result, as reported earlier today, the objective FBI said it is now investigating how thousands of DNC emails were hacked, a breach that Hillary Clinton’s campaign maintains was committed by Russia to benefit Donald Trump.  Indeed, as noted yesterday, Clinton’s campaign, citing “experts”, pointed to a massive hacking of DNC computers in June that cybersecurity firms linked to the Russian government.

    Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta added fuel to the debate Monday, saying there was “a kind of bromance going on” between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Trump. The Clinton campaign says Russia favors Trump’s views, especially on NATO.

    Trump on Monday dismissed as a “joke” claims by Hillary Clinton’s campaign that Russia is trying to help Trump by leaking thousands of emails from the Democratic National Committee.

    “The new joke in town is that Russia leaked the disastrous DNC emails, which should have never been written (stupid), because Putin likes me,” Trump wrote as part of a series of Tweets. “Hillary was involved in the email scandal because she is the only one with judgement (sic) so bad that such a thing could have happened.”

    The scandal continue into the afternoon when a Motherboard article noted that “”metadata show that the Russian operators apparently edited some documents, and in some cases created new documents””

    Perhaps it did, but not the ones that Wasserman Schultz already resigned over. Because while the Democratic party is pointing fingers the underlying reality is simple: no matter who hacked the Wikileak’ed emails, the DNC was engaging in media collusion and actively suppressing the campaign of Bernie Sanders.  To be sure, as some already noted, “one way the DNC could have prevented embarrassing info about its collusion and lies from entering the public domain: not colluded and lied.

    In any case, the fallout from the email leak has been escalating all day, with Sanders supporters booing the former DNC Chairman offstage, forcing her to skip the convention entirely. And so has the fingerpointing at the Kremlin as the culprit behind a scandal that threatens to overshadow even last week’s scandal-ridden Republican convention.

    But how to get to the bottom of who did what?

    One way would be to listen to the person who should know all about this stuff: Edward Snowden. This is what he said earlier today on Twitter:

     

    So there you have it: if you want to know if the Russians “did it”, just get a credible, accurate answer from the NSA.

    The only problem is getting a “credible and accurate” answer from what is fundamentally a biased, political organization.

    But perhaps the biggest irony is that while half the US is accusing Russia of hacking the DNC, it was the US government that was exposed specifically authorizing the hacking of political parties.

    Define irony?

  • DNC Day 1: Debbie Doesn't Do Philly But Bernie Meets Michelle – Live Feed

    After the turmoil of last week's RNC, this week' Democratic Nation Convention is off to an even more chaotic start (no matter what the surrogates desperately try to say). Wasserman Schultz resignation and decision not to 'gavel in' the convention is over-shadowed by the increasingly loud voices of Bernie (who will speak tonight) supporters booing any mention of Clinton-Kaine, but according to the mainstream media, Michelle Obama's headline speech tonight will bring the party together.

     

     

    Live Feed (due to start at 4pmET)

    *  *  *

    Hillary better hope for a Convention bounce because she is starting to lag Trump notably…

    *  *  *

    Or do voters know something else? Did Jane Sanders just drop a huge hint at what comes next?

    While almost inaudible, some have suggested she says: "They don't know your name is being put in nomination…"

    Source: MichaelPRamirez.com

    *  *  *

    Full order of business (via NJ.com):

    The list of speakers released by the Democratic National Committee is incomplete. Clinton's running mate, Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine, has yet to be added to the schedule, as well as many of the federal and state elected officials,who were announced as speakers on Thursday.

    Here is the current schedule:

    Monday, July 25

    Session begins at 4 p.m.

    • Pam Livengood of Keene, N.H., whose daughter struggles with drug addiction
    • Karla and Francisca Ortiz of Las Vegas. Karla is an American citizen but Francisca, her mother, is undocumented
    • Anastasia Somoza of New York, an advocate for Americans with disabilities
    • Astrid Silva, an undocumented immigrant who came to the U.S. as a child
    • Rep. Keith Ellison of Minnesota
    • National Education Association President Lily Eskelsen Garcia
    • Rep. Raul Grijalva of Arizona
    • Iowa Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal and candidates of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee
    • SEIU President Mary Kay Henry
    • Rep. Joe Kennedy of Massachusetts
    • Connecticut Gov. Dannel Malloy, chair of the Democratic Governors Association
    • Building Trades President Sean McGarvey
    • U.S. Sen. Jeff Merkley of Oregon
    • Rep. Linda Sanchez of California and members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus
    • AFSCME President Lee Saunders
    • AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka
    • American Federation of Teachers President Randi Weingarten
    • U.S. Sen. Cory Booker
    • U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont
    • First Lady Michelle Obama

    Tuesday, July 26

    The session begins at 4 p.m.

    • Thaddeus Desmond, a Philadelphia advocate for children
    • Dynah Haubert, a Philadelphia lawyer for a disability rights organization
    • Kate Burdick, a lawyer at the Juvenile Law Center in Philadelphia
    • Anton Moore of Philadelphia, who founded a nonprofit community group to talk to youth about gun violence
    • Dustin Parsons of Little Rock, Ark., a fifth grade teacher
    • Students from Eagle Academy in New York City and Newark for at-risk youth
    • Joe Sweeney, a New York City police detective who responded to 9/11
    • Lauren Manning, a former executive and partner at Cantor Fitzgerald who was wounded in the World Trade Center attack on 9/11
    • Ryan Moore, originally from South Sioux City, Neb., who has a health condition that hie father's employer refused to cover
    • Donna Brazile, Democratic National Committee vice chair of voter registration and participation
    • Former Georgia state Sen. Jason Carter
    • House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi of California and the Democratic women of the House, including Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman of New Jersey's 12th District.
    • Planned Parenthood Action Fund President Cecile Richards
    • President Bill Clinton, husband of Hillary Clinton
    • Mothers of the Movement, mothers who lost their children to gun violence or to enounters with law enforcement.

    Wednesday, July 27

    The session will begin at 4:30 p.m.

    • Erica Smegielski, whose mother Dawn was the principal of Sandy Hook Elementary School in Connecticut and was one of 26 people killed in the 2012 mass shooting there
    • Felicia Sanders and Polly Sheppard, two of the three survivors of the 2015 shooting at a black church in Charleston, S.C., which killed nine
    • Jamie Dorff, whose husband, an Army helicopter pilot from Minnesota, died while on a search and rescue mission in northern Iraq
    • Rep. G.K. Butterfield of North Carolina and members of the Congressional Black Caucus
    • Rep. Judy Chu of California and members of the Congressional Asian Pacific American Caucus
    • NARAL President Ilyse Hogue
    • Retired Navy Rear Adm. John Hutson 
    • Civil rights leader Jesse Jackson
    • Rep. Ben Ray Lujan of New Mexco and candidates of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee
    • Former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta
    • Former Philadelphia Police Commissioner Charles Ramsey
    • EMILY's List President Stephanie Schriock
    • Center for American Progress Action Fund President Neera Tanden
    • Vice President Joe Biden
    • President Barack Obama

    Thursday, July 28

    The session begins at 4:30 p.m.

    • Henrietta Ivey, a Michigan home care worker who advocates for a $15 an hour minimum wage.
    • Beth Mathias of Ohio, who works two jobs
    • Jensen Walcott and Jake Reed. Walcott was fired from her job in Bonner Springs, Kan., for asking why her co-worker, and friend,  Reed, made more than she did for the same job
    • Khizr Khan, whose son, , Humayun S. M. Khan, is one of 14 American Muslims killed after 9/11 serving in the U.S. Armed Forces
    • Retired Marine Corps Gen. John Allen, who commanded U.S. forces in Afghanistan
    • Candidates of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee
    • Human Rights Campaign President Chad Griffin
    • League of Conservation Voters President Gene Karpinski
    • Rep. Sea Patrick Maloney of New York, co-chair of the Congressional LGBT Equality Caucus, and LGBT rights activist Sarah McBride
    • U.S. Sen. Barbara Mikulski of Maryland and Democratic women of the Senate
    • Chelsea Clinton, Clinton's daughter
    • Former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, presumptive Democratic nominee

    Finally, there is one 'unified' group that Hillary can rely upon…

    h/t @Mark412NH

  • Marissa Mayer Blames “Gender-Charged” Reporting Of Yahoo

    We all see the things that only plague women leaders, like articles that focus on their appearance, like Hillary Clinton sporting a new pantsuit. I think all women are aware of that, but I had hoped in 2015 and 2016 that I would see fewer articles like that. It’s a shame” Marissa Mayer decried to the Financial Times.

    While the honorable thing would be to admit the countless mistakes Yahoo! made along the way, including refusing to purchase Google for $1 million in 1998, purchasing Tumblr for $1.1 billion, and refusing to sell itself to Microsoft for $40 billion, evidently it is easier to blame the boogeyman of sexism.

    “I’ve tried to be gender blind and believe tech is a gender neutral zone but do think there has been gender-charged reporting,” she argues.

    We wonder if she will complain about gender-charged reporting once she is set to receive a compensation package of up to $55 million in cash and stock.

    Finally, for those who may still believe appearances and pantsuits led to Yahoo’s demise, as the FT presents below, sales at Yahoo’s core business, market share and market capitalization have been plummeting since Mayer first took over in 2012. Perhaps another Vogue photo session  is in the making of this Silicon Valley star.

  • Bernie Fans Claim Their Signs Are Being Seized At Convention

    Submitted by Blake Neff via DailyCaller.com,

    Bernie Sanders supporters at the Democratic National Convention claim people are seizing pro-Sanders signs in an effort to suppress the heavy support he is receiving on the convention floor.

    The allegations began flying Monday night on Twitter just as the Democratic convention kicked off. Many Sanders supporters in the arena booed every mention of presumed Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, creating a divisive atmosphere at what is supposed to be the party’s big celebration.

    “They are ripping signs out of people’s hands and threatening no credentials tomorrow if we hold up signs,” one Sanders delegate allegedly said in a text message exchange posted online by a friend.

    Another video first posted to Twitter and later uploaded to YouTube, shows a man in a suit allegedly taking a Sanders campaign sign from an attendee.

    Despite the claim that the man is confiscating Sanders signs, it’s not entirely clear what is actually happening in the video. When the video starts, the man in the suit already has a large Sanders sign, and a person appears to hand over a smaller Sanders sticker quite willingly.

    Other tweets claim that party operatives began handing out “Love Trumps Hate” signs to the audience in an effort to drown out the many Sanders signs. Some of the Vermont senators’ supporters quickly began modifying the paraphernalia to be pro-Sanders, though…

  • Furious Sanders Supporters, Angry Media, Blistering Chaos Marks First Day Of Democratic Convention

    Democrats were delighted to watch as last week’s scandal-plagued Republican National Convention lurched from one fiasco to another until…. the Democratic National Convention was on the verge of crashing and burning (and that is not a pun on the searing Philadelphia heat) during its own disoragnized launch among angry supporters, blistering temperatures, sheer chaos, and a fractured organization that has left Republicans stunned in amazement at a Democratic party seemingly torn in two.

    As documented earlier, Bernie Sanders supporters disrupted the first day of the Democratic convention, repeatedly chanting and booing mentions of Hillary Clinton’s name as the party’s hopes for a show of unity dissolved into frequent chaos. Speakers in the convention’s first hour struggled to carry out business as angry Sanders supporters roared their disapproval, drawing a deafening response from Clinton delegates, Reuters adds.

    “We’re all Democrats and we need to act like it,” U.S. Representative Marcia Fudge of Ohio, the convention’s chairwoman, shouted over the uproar.

    Earlier in the day, Sanders drew jeers from his supporters when he urged his delegates to back the White House bid of his formal rival, Clinton, and focus on defeating Republican Donald Trump in the Nov. 8 presidential election. Sanders’ followers shouted: “We want Bernie” in a show of anger at both Clinton’s victory in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination and emails leaked on Friday suggesting the party leadership had tried to sabotage Sanders’ insurgent campaign.

    In an attempt to project unity, former rivals Hillary and Bernie urgently joined forces Monday to tamp down dissent among his supporters, as Democrats tried to keep infighting from overtaking an opening night featuring some of the party’s biggest stars, including first lady Michelle Obama.

    It was unclear whether the efforts would succeed, AP adds. Chants of “Bernie” echoed through the arena, and boos could be heard nearly every time Clinton’s name was raised. Outside the arena, several hundred Sanders backers marched down Philadelphia’s sweltering streets changing, “Nominate Sanders or lose in November.”

    For Hillary, it was a turbulent start to a historic four-day gathering that will culminate in the nomination of the first woman to lead a major U.S. political party. 

    Sanders had a better start to the convention, scoring a major victory with the forced resignation of party chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz following the release of emails showing her staff favored Clinton during the primary despite vows of neutrality. But Sanders’ aides reached out to the Clinton campaign Monday afternoon to express concerns that the chairwoman’s ouster wouldn’t be enough to keep supporters from disrupting the convention, according to a Democratic official.

    Sanders previewed his remarks during an appearance earlier Monday before supportive delegates. He implored them to vote for Clinton, generating a chorus of boos. “Brothers and sisters, this is the real world that we live in,” Sanders said as he tried to quiet the crowd. “Trump is a bully and a demagogue.”

    The discussions between the two camps prompted Sanders to send emails and text messages to supporters asking them not to protest.

    “Our credibility as a movement will be damaged by booing, turning of backs, walking out or other similar displays,” Sanders wrote.

    As Reuters adds, the scenes of booing in Philadelphia were a setback to Democratic officials’ attempts to present the gathering as a smoothly run show of party unity in contrast to the volatile campaign of Republican nominee Trump. 

    Desperately hoping to appease boisterous Sanders’ supporters, moments after the convention opened in Philadelphia, the DNC also apologized to Sanders and his backers “for the inexcusable remarks made over email.” The statement was signed by DNC leaders, though Wasserman Schultz’s name was notably absent.

    The Florida congresswoman’s resignation is effective later this week, though she also stepped down from her official convention duties. The mere sight of her on stage had been expected to prompt strong opposition from Sanders’ backers. 

    Meanwhile, Trump gloated at the Democrats’ opening day disorder. “Wow, the Republican Convention went so smoothly compared to the Dems total mess,” he wrote on Twitter.

    Trump also seemed to enjoy the Clinton campaign’s attempt to blame the DNC hack, which is now being investigated by the FBI, on Russian military intelligence agencies. The campaign also accused Moscow of trying to meddle in the U.S. election and help Trump, who has said he might not necessarily defend NATO allies if they are attacked by Russia. Trump dismissed the suggestion in a tweet: “The joke in town is that Russia leaked the disastrous DNC emails, which should never have been written (stupid), because Putin likes me.”

    But, ironically, the bulk of the democrats’ anger was focused not so much on Trump, at least not yet, as on Wasserman Schultz (and in many cases, Hillary herself). Wasserman Schultz, a Florida congresswoman who resigned as the DNC head on Sunday, was the focus of anger from liberal Democrats over some 19,000 DNC emails that were leaked by the WikiLeaks website that showed the party establishment working to undermine Sanders. 

    She told Florida’s Sun Sentinel newspaper she would not speak as planned at the opening of the event. On Monday morning, Wasserman Schultz struggled to be heard above boos as she spoke to the delegation from her home state. Some protesters held up signs that read “Bernie” and “E-MAILS” and shouted: “Shame” as she spoke.

    The cache of leaked emails disclosed that DNC officials explored ways to undercut Sanders’ insurgent presidential campaign, including raising questions about whether Sanders, who is Jewish, was an atheist. Sanders supporters were already dismayed last week when Clinton passed over liberal favorites like U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts to select the more moderate Kaine as her running mate.

    * * *

    But it wasn’t just the lack of unity and common voice that marked the start of the DNC. According to The Hill, the apparent lack of organization as well as a hostile weather conditions, all conspired – pun intended – to make the initial impression of the Democratic Convention even worse than that of the Republican one. 

    Attendees reported walking long distances — in some cases, nearly a mile — in 98-degree temperatures to get to the arena from the car drop-off area. Complaints of overheating and poor coordination by the DNC are escalating just as the party looks to contain the fallout from the resignation of its chairwoman, Debbie Wasserman Schultz.
     
    Wasserman Schultz, who was expected to open the convention’s first night, is no longer expected to speak at all. 

    Just hours before the opening gavel, only two eateries inside the convention center were serving food and drinks around lunchtime. Water bottles were priced at $4.50. Thousands will arrive by Monday evening for keynote speeches by Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and first lady Michelle Obama. Outside, temperatures reached 98 degrees Fahrenheit by 3 p.m., with a heat index of 109 degrees. 

    The National Weather Service had previously warned of “multiple days of excessive heat” during the Democratic National Convention. Officials said the heat would “greatly affect those who are attending outdoor activities,” such as the thousands of people joining protests downtown.

    Morgan Finkelstein, a spokeswoman for the DNC’s media team, said in a text Monday afternoon that its event contractor was “working on making it colder in the tents.”   Just outside the convention center by the media tents, a handful of food trucks sizzled on the pavement, with no other food spots nearby. Inside the tents, water has only been made available by media outlets for their own staff.  

    The media was furious: peeved reporters and editors have taken to Twitter to complain about the event’s disorganization, with some pining for their experience at last week’s Republican National Convention in Cleveland.

    Megan Liberman, editor-in-chief of Yahoo News, described the day as “chaos”  (and an employee for Yahoo should know). “To be totally objective and nonpartisan: the logistics at DNC are appalling. Squalid hotels, sweltering workspace, no directions. Chaos,” Liberman tweeted.

    “Walking thru hot media tents, or walking the mile from Uber drop off to hot media tents, one hears longing for CLE,” Washington Post reporter Philip Rucker tweeted.

    Finkelstein said the DNC was providing air conditioning in the media tents “the best that we can.” In the arena, she said they tried to “beef up AC as much as we could” — including adding two 300-pound chillers stationed near the delegates. 

    Finkelstein said reporters were allowed to buy or bring their own water into the convention hall or the media tents. When asked if the DNC planned to make any available in the hotter-than-expected tents, she said: “I don’t actually know if we’re allowed to provide that.”

    The DNC’s media facilities had already drawn complaints before temperatures began to soar Monday. With an approaching thunderstorm late Sunday, convention officials warned reporters to be prepared to evacuate the media tents in case of lightning. “Tents in the vicinity of the area are not designed to fully protect inhabitants in the event of a direct lightning strike,” according to an email by the DNC’s Department of Media Logistics.

    * * * 

    Perhaps it is poetic justice that after all the mocking of the Republican Convention, the Democratic one has launched on such chaotic, turbulent waves. That said, we are hopeful that things will normalize, and eagerly look forward to Bernie’s speech later tonight when the Vermont socialist will do all in his power to bring the two warring group of democrats together. If what has transpired so far is any indication, he may have an uphill battle.

  • FishLivesMatter: California To Decide If Saving 'Delta Smelt' Is Worth $65 Billion Of Taxpayer Money

    Starting tomorrow, California's State Water Resources Control Board will begin hosting months of public hearings on whether or not to proceed with Jerry Brown's controversial "California WaterFix" project, or the "Delta Tunnels" as it is more commonly known.  The project has been heavily criticized as yet another Brown-sponsored public works boondoggle with total price tag estimates ranging to over $65BN.
    California Delta

    We have to admit that we're a little perplexed by this project as it seems to address only one of the symptoms of California's water crisis while completely ignoring the overall illness which is the complete inflexibility of the Endangered Species Act.  While the twin tunnels may limit the number of smelt getting ensnared in the Delta pumping stations it does nothing to address the salinity issues raised by environmentalists when too much fresh water is removed from the system.  Maybe we're a little dense, but it's unclear to us how moving upstream to divert fresh water flows from the Sacramento River, a river which otherwise empties into the Delta and accounts for roughly 85% of the total fresh water flows into the system, rather than pulling it directly from the existing pumping stations would have any impact on overall salinity levels in the Delta.  As we discussed here just a few days ago, without addressing the inflexibility of the Endangered Species Act this is simply another opportunity to squander taxpayer money on more water infrastructure that will never actually be used because of leadership's inability and/or lack of desire to stand up to California's environmentalists in favor of practical solutions.

    For those of you less familiar the intricacies of the proposal, the Delta Tunnels project calls for diverting a portion of the Sacramento River’s fresh water flow via new gravity-fed intakes more than 30 miles upstream, between Clarksburg and Courtland. The water would then flow south via two 40-foot-wide pipes buried 150 feet underground and ultimately feed into the existing state and federal canal systems.

    While there are multiple viewpoints on the pros/cons of the Delta Tunnels (often based on where a person lives, farms, etc.), in general, proponents argue that the tunnel plan is better for the Delta Smelt population as it reduces reliance on large pumping stations at the south end of the Delta that often entrap the small fish.  Opponents, on the other hand, view the tunnels simply as a form of corporate welfare for large corporate ag interests and/or are concerned that the tunnels will do nothing to actually increase water flows to the southern part California without relaxing rules under the Endangered Species Act.

    Proposed Delta Tunnel Plan

    Separately, California voters in November will be presented with a ballot initiative that could effectively torpedo the tunnels plan. Proposition 53, would require a statewide vote on any public works project financed with at least $2 billion in revenue bonds.

  • With G20 Over, FX Market Chaos Resumes: Yen Surge, Yuan Purge

    Once again the 'fake' FX stability of pre-geopolitical-events has ben shattered now that the G-20 meetings ended with their usual un-fanfare of nothingness (and rising discord). After exuberant status-quo-supporting weakness in the Yen and stability in the Yuan (against the dollar), that's all coming unglued rapidly in the last 36 hours as USDJPY tests back to a 104 handle and Yuan resumes its weakening trend

    As Bloomberg notes, history shows that the Chinese currency usually strengthens ahead of major political or economic events, such as President Xi Jinping’s state visits to the U.S. and the Boao Forum.

     

    And sure enough, as soon as G-20 is overm Yuan starts to weaken again…

     

    And USDJPY has tumbled back to a 104 handle… (down 3 handles from pre-G-20 highs), back below Brexit levels…

     

    As a reminder, geopolitical risks are surging…(and not priced in)

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Today’s News 25th July 2016

  • "Politically Correct" German MP Demands Probe Over Police Shooting Of Axe-Wielding Jihadist

    Submitted by Soeren Kern via The Gatestone Institute,

    • "I am a soldier of the Caliphate and am launching a martyrdom operation in Germany. … I have lived among you, lived in your homes. I planned this in your own land. And I will slaughter you in your own homes and in the streets. … I will slaughter you with this knife and sever your necks with an axe, if Allah permits. " – Germany's axe-attacker, in an Islamic State video.

    • "Künast should not be watching so many bad movies. Who would believe that if someone attacks the police with an axe and a knife, the police are supposed to shoot the axe out of the attacker's hands? That is really clueless and stupid. If police officers are attacked in this manner, they will not engage in Kung Fu. Unfortunately, it sometimes ends in the death of the perpetrator. This will not change." – Rainer Wendt, Chairman of the German Police Union.

    • The Bavarian Criminal Police Office has now launched an internal investigation to determine if police were justified in shooting a jihadist.

    A 17-year-old Afghan asylum seeker brandishing an axe and shouting "Allahu Akbar" ("Allah is the greatest") seriously injured five people on a train in Würzburg, Bavaria. The assailant was shot dead by police after he charged at them with the axe.

    The teenager, who had claimed asylum after arriving in Germany in June 2015 as an unaccompanied minor, had been placed with a foster family just two weeks before the attack as a reward for being "well integrated."

    Bavarian Interior Minister Joachim Herrmann said police had found a hand-painted Islamic State flag in his room at his foster home in the nearby town of Ochsenfurt. They also found a farewell letter to his father which read: "Now pray for me so that I can take revenge on these infidels. Pray for me that I can get to paradise."

    Shortly after the attack, the Islamic State released a video purporting to show an Afghan asylum seeker holding a knife and making threats against Germany:

    "In the name of Allah, I am a soldier of the Caliphate and am launching a martyrdom operation in Germany.

     

    "Here I am. I have lived among you, lived in your homes. I planned this in your own land. And I will slaughter you in your own homes and in the streets.

     

    "I will make you forget about the spectacular attacks in France, if Allah permits.

     

    "I will fight to the death, if Allah permits. I will slaughter you with this knife and sever your necks with an axe, if Allah permits."

    In the video, the Islamic State identified the attacker as Muhammad Riyad, who can be heard speaking Pashto, a language spoken in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran. But German media identified the attacker as Riaz Khan Ahmadzai. The discrepancy raised questions about the teenager's true identity.

    Police found a Pakistani document in the teenager's room, leading some to believe he may have lied about being from Afghanistan in order to improve his chances of securing asylum. German authorities generally classify migrants from Pakistan as economic migrants and those from Afghanistan as refugees. But Interior Minister Thomas de Maizière said there is no reason to doubt that the attacker was indeed from Afghanistan.

    There are also unresolved questions about the teenager's ties to the Islamic State. Herrmann, the Bavarian interior minister, said the video is authentic: "The man in the video is the Würzburg attacker." The federal prosecutor's office in Karlsruhe said it believed "the attacker committed the offense as a member of the Islamic State."

    Left: The 17-year-old Afghan asylum seeker who seriously injured five people on a train in Germany, while shouting "Allahu Akbar," is shown in an Islamic State video saying, "In the name of Allah, I am a soldier of the Caliphate and am launching a martyrdom operation in Germany… I will slaughter you in your own homes and in the streets." Right: The attacker's body is removed from the place where police shot him, after he charged at them with the axe.

    By contrast, De Maizière said the attacker was a self-radicalized "lone wolf" who had been incited by Islamic State propaganda. The public prosecutor in Bamberg, Erik Ohlenschlager, said "We have no evidence that he was in direct contact with the Islamic State."

    After the blood-filled train — an eyewitness said it "looked like a slaughterhouse" — came to a stop at a station in Heidingsfeld near Würzburg, the teenager jumped off and tried to escape. Surrounded by police, he lunged at them with an axe. Police shot the attacker dead because "there was no other option."

    Green Party MP Renate Künast criticized the police for using lethal force. In a tweet, she wrote: "Why could the attacker not have been incapacitated without killing him???? Questions!"

    Künast's comments provoked a furious backlash, with many accusing her of showing more sympathy for the perpetrator than for the victims. The outpouring of anger against Künast indicates that Germans have had enough of their politically correct politicians.

    The chairman of the German police union, Rainer Wendt, said:

    "The final rescue shot is clearly regulated by law. The policemen were attacked and used their firearm to defend against an immediate danger to life and limb. That is their statutory duty. The Green MP Renate Künast has absolutely no idea about reality of dangerous police actions."

    Speaking on N24 television, Wendt added:

    "Künast should not be watching so many bad movies. Who would believe that if someone attacks the police with an axe and a knife, the police are supposed to shoot the axe out of the attacker's hands? That is really clueless and stupid.

     

    "If police officers are attacked in this manner, they will not engage in Kung Fu. Unfortunately, it sometimes ends in the death of the perpetrator. This will not change."

    The head of the police union in Bavaria, Peter Schall, said: "If a police officer is not allowed to shoot in such situations, he might as well stop carrying a weapon."

    Mike Mohring, a politician with the ruling Christian Democratic Union (CDU), called for stiffer penalties for those who attack police officers. He said attacks against police are on the rise across Germany and "the only effective deterrent is that the law provides an appropriate penalty." He also said German police should be outfitted with body cameras to protect both the police and the public.

    Bavarian Justice Minister Winfried Bausback called on Künast to resign: "Anyone who publicly suspects police in such a situation without any knowledge of the matter — as Künast has done in her tweet — is unacceptable as chairman of the parliamentary legal committee."

    Green leader Cem Özdemir distanced himself from Künast:

    "I did not understand what she wrote there. It is always a good idea to think about what you are writing before you send a tweet. What are police officers supposed to do if they are attacked? They protected others and they protected themselves. Her view is not the position of my party."

    Andreas Scheuer, the general secretary of the Christian Social Union, the Bavarian sister party to Chancellor Angela Merkel's CDU, said Künast's comments were "perverse." He added: "The CSU's policy is: protection of victims takes priority over protection of perpetrators."

    German commentator Klaus Kelle wrote:

    "Our police in Germany do an excellent job and are hardly ever thanked for it. They are poorly paid … and repeatedly are whipping boys for errors of policy. Endless overtime, violent attacks, even in harmless situations such as illegal parking, is part of everyday life for our sons and daughters, who serve all of us.

    "Where are the politicians who support our policemen, rather than those who mindlessly criticize them, as now? Ms. Künast, does the presumption of innocence apply to police officers in this country?"

    The Bavarian Criminal Police Office has now launched an internal investigation to determine if police were justified in shooting a jihadist.

  • Paul Craig Roberts Warns "Armageddon Approaches" After German Leak

    Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

    The Western public doesn’t know it, but Washington and its European vassals are convincing Russia that they are preparing to attack. Eric Zuesse reports on a German newspaper leak of a Bundeswehr decision to declare Russia to be an enemy nation of Germany.

    According to a report issued on June 6th in German Economic News (Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten, or DWN), the German government is preparing to go to war against Russia, and has in draft-form a Bundeswehr report declaring Russia to be an enemy nation. DWN says: “The Russian secret services have apparently thoroughly studied the paper.

     

    In advance of the paper’s publication, a harsh note of protest has been sent to Berlin: The head of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Russian State Duma, Alexei Puschkow, has posted the Twitter message: ‘The decision of the German government declaring Russia to be an enemy shows Merkel’s subservience to the Obama administration.’”

    This is the interpretation that some Russian politicians themselves have put on the NATO military bases that Washington is establishing on Russia’s borders.

    Washington might intend the military buildup as pressure on President Putin to reduce Russian opposition to Washington’s unilateralism. However, it reminds some outspoken Russians such as Vladimir Zhirinovsky of Hitler’s troops on Russia’s border in 1941.

    Zhirinovsky is the founder and leader of Russia’s Liberal Democratic Party and a vice chairman of the Russian parliament. In a confrontation with the editor of a German newspaper, Zhirinovsky tells him that German troops again on Russia’s border will provoke a preventive strike after which nothing will remain of German and NATO troops. “The more NATO soldiers in your territory, the faster you are going to die. To the last man. Remove NATO from your territory!” 

    Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has expressed his frustration with Washington’s reliance on force and coercion instead of diplomacy. It is reckless for Washington to convince Russia that diplomacy is a dead end without promise. When the Russians reach that conclusion, force will confront force.

    Indeed Zhirinovsky has already reached that point and perhaps Vladimir Putin also. As I reported, Putin recently dressed down Western presstitutes for their role in fomenting nuclear war.

    Putin has made it clear that Russia will not accept US missile bases in Poland and Romania. He has informed Washington and the imbecilic Polish and Romanian governments. However, as Putin observed, “they don’t hear.”

    The inability to hear means that Washington’s arrogance has made Washington too stupid to take seriously Putin’s warning. If Washington persists, it will provoke the preventive strike that Zhirinovsky told the German editor the Merkel regime was inviting.

    Americans need to wake up to the dangerous situation that Washington has created, but I doubt they will. Most wars happen without the public’s knowledge until they happen. The main function of the American left-wing is to serve as a bogyman with which to scare conservatives about the country’s loss of morals, and the main function of conservatives is to create fear and hysteria about immigrants, Muslims, and Russians. There is no sign that Congress is aware of approaching Armageddon, and the media consists of propaganda.

    I and a few others try to alert people to the real threats that they face, but our voices are not loud enough. Not even Vladimir Putin’s voice is loud enough. It looks like the West won’t hear until “there remains nothing at all of the German and NATO troops,” and of Poland and Romania and the rest of us.

  • Here's Why The New DNC Chair Is About To Make Bernie Supporters Just As Angry

    Meet Donna Brazile – interim party chair after Debbie Wasserman Schultz (DWS) resignation over Wikileaks-email-leaked proof confirming months of accusations that she had put her thumb on the scales in favor of presumptive nominee Hillary Clinton…

     

    The only problem is… a quick search of Wikileaks leaked DNC email database shows… Brazile is exactly the same as DWS – clearly demonstrating bias against the Sanders’ camp…

     

    And rejecting Sanders’ efforts to battle the rigged super-delegate system as “another lunacy”…

     

    So now, following Bernie’s statement with regard DWS’ resignation…

    We suspect, Sanders’ supporters will be screaming for more blood (and rightfully so) and the deeply-rigged nature of today’s body politik spews to the surface once again.

  • China Bans Websites From Original Reporting

    It was about six months ago when global stock markets were crashing, that China tightened its control on local media, and ordered the local press and news outlets to stick to “positive reporting” or else “risk the stability of the country.”  As we reported back in February “China is now openly declaring war on anyone who dares to even suggest that not all may be well in China.  A separate commentary by Xinhua yesterday said that controlling public opinion was essential for a a ruling party: “With one hand we grab the guns; with the other we grab the pens,” it said. “Mobilising public opinion is the great tradition of our party.”In other words, China is worried that popular anger and negative sentiment is starting to stir especially after the recent economic troubles, and that those who dare to promote an objective version of reality will likely be promptly quieted.”

    Since then while superficially the economy may have improved on the back of nearly $2 trillion in freshly-created new loans, it appears that reports of bad news have not stopped. As such, China has decided to come up with an even more draconian measure: ban original reporting altogether.

    According to The Paper, major internet portals in China including Sina, Sohu, Netease and Ifeng.com have shut down some of their original reporting operations after receiving “harsh criticism” from country’s top industry regulator

    As Bloomberg adds, the Beijing branch of Cyberspace Administration of China has set deadlines for portals for rectification. It also reports that an unidentified head of Beijing branch cited portals for violating China’s internet regulations by carrying plenty of news content obtained through original reporting.

    What happens to those who dare to do what news organizations are expected to by definition, i.e., original reporting? Nothing good: portals also to face other penalties including fines and warnings.

    Full source from China’s The Paper, google translated:

    Recently, the Beijing Information Office of the territorial network Sina, Sohu, Netease, Phoenix and other sites provide a large number of illegal behavior in the presence of Internet News Information Service raised harsh criticism, ordered the site to be a deadline for correction.

     

    Currently, Sina has been shutting down “Geek News” section, are cleaning “Sina studio” section of the offending content; Sohu has been shutting down “News party”, “rad”, “click Today” and other columns;

     

    Netease been shut down. ” echo “,” roadmap “and other columns, is cleaning” School of Journalism “section of the offending content; Phoenix has been shut down” serious report “section. All shut down, cleaning section including website pages, mobile clients, micro-channel public account other publishing platform.

     

    Beijing letter network do the responsible person, said the channel was ordered to rectification column, a serious violation of the national “Provisions on the Administration of Internet News Information Services” provisions of Article XVI, were published a large number of self-editing of news and information, and serious violations , a very bad influence. Beijing Information Office in addition to ordering the territorial network related sites suspected of illegal channels to be rectification column, the law will give a warning and impose a fine of administrative penalties.

     

    The next stage, the Beijing Municipal Information Office will continue to increase network administration and law enforcement, standardize territorial website news and information service activities, maintain good order in the Internet industry. Welcome to the majority of users of the Internet illegal and unhealthy information supervision and reporting, and jointly create a good ecological network.

    What happens next? Sooner rather than later, China prohibits all forms of “original reporting”, at
    which point the only allowed form of “news” will be whatever the
    politburo greenlights… very much in the same way that the DNC would preapprove articles by Washington Post or segments by MSNBC or CNN.

  • With Kuroda Under Pressure To Increase Stimulus Again, Dissenters Appear

    With the yen strengthening ~12% against the US dollar and the Nikkei down ~10% YTD, it seems Haruhiko “Peter Pan” Kuroda is having a difficult time working his magic in favor of Abenomics. As the WSJ reports, Kuroda is under increasing pressure from the Prime Minister’s advisers to coordinate efforts to jumpstart the economy. Earlier this month, we first reported of the secretive meeting between Kuroda and Bernanke, where the former Fed Chairman urged Japan to unleash helicopter money.

    With what little credibility it still has, the Bank of Japan is set to meet this week and likely agree on the size of yet another stimulus package for the economy. Prime Minister Abe’s main economic advisor Etsuro Honda recently detailed in an interview that the BOJ should increase its Qualitative and Quantitative Monetary Easing (QQE) program from ¥80 trillion to ¥90 trillion.

    In addition, there has been growing speculation regarding coordinated fiscal and monetary stimulus. The fiscal stimulus efforts are not expected to be unveiled until August, according to the WSJ. Expectations point to a “multiyear program valued at ¥20 trillion ($188 billion), including direct spending, government loans and public-private financing.”

    Perhaps more interesting, this time, Kuroda may have a difficult time convincing the 8 remaining members of the monetary board. As the Journal notes, “other BOJ officials are signaling a reluctance to act, underscoring questions about whether the central bank has reached the limits of its powers to revive Japan’s economy. They note that monetary policy is already extremely accommodative, with bond yields and interest rates at or near record lows, and express doubts that additional easing would make fiscal stimulus much more effective, according to people familiar with the central bank’s thinking.”

    As core metrics and corporate expectations of inflation plummet, Kuroda’s promise to do “whatever it takes” to reach 2% inflation seems to be under significant threat. Doing nothing now would “amount to an admission that the BOJ’s monetary policy has reached its limits—it wants to move, but it can’t,” said Yuichi Kodama, chief economist at Meiji Yasuda Life Insurance.

    Not unlike the Fed, it is clear that the BOJ is trapped in its own end game. As Kyle Bass recently told CNBC, “The textbooks aren’t working for the academics … I fear they’re going to have to go into some sort of jubilee where the central bank just forgives the debt that they own…I don’t know what happens to the yield curve then. The unconventional policies aren’t working, so they’re going to have to go to unconventional, unconventional policies next. I don’t know where that takes them.”

    The answer appears to be a one-way ticket to Neverland, where we can all believe in our hero, Peter Pan.

  • 27-Year-Old Syrian Suicide Bomber Behind German Music Festival Attack That Injured 12

    Update 2: The suspect behind an explosion that injured 12 people in Bavaria was a 27-year-old asylum seeker from Syria, Bavarian Interior Minister Joachim Herrmann says early Monday. The suspect, who arrived in Germany two years ago, died in the blast. He had been refused asylum, Bavarian authorities told a press conference. His application was rejected a year ago but the man was allowed to stay in Germany temporarily, due to ongoing hostilities in Syria.

    Police say they do not yet known if the attacker had any radical Islamist background. The investigations is currently focused on attacker’s communications.

    *  *  *

    Update 1: "A man, according to our current knowledge the perpetrator, died" in the blast they said in the short statement. Further details weren't immediately available and they did not pick up their telephone lines.

    *  *  *

    As we detailed earlier, capping an awful week for Germany (and France), an explosion in the city of Ansbach, originally reported as a gas leak, has been confirmed as being caused by "an explosive device."

    As The Telegraph reports, one person is dead (believed to be the bomber) and at least 11 more injured as the explosion occured shortly after 10pm outside a wine bar near the entrance to an open-air music festival, where there were some 2,500 people in attendance. The festival was shut down as a precaution.

    With Germany already on high alert following the events in Reutlingen and Munich.

    On Sunday, 21-year-old asylum-seeker from Syria killed a woman, reported to be pregnant, with a meat cleaver in the southern German town of Reutlingen.

     

    Only two days earlier an 18-year-old man killed nine people in a shooting near a shopping centre in Munich, before turning the gun on himself.

    One person has been killed and another 11 injured in an explosion at a cafe in the Bavarian city of Ansbach. (via The Telegraph)

    A spokesman for the Bavarian Interior Ministry said the explosion was not an accident and appears to have been intentional.

     

     

    Bavarian Interior Minister Joachim Herrmann was en route to the site, the spokesman said.

     

    The blast killed one person and injured 11 others in the Bavarian city, police confirmed late on Sunday. It said the cause of the blast was unknown.

     

     

    The blast a at Eugene's Wine Bar triggered a large-scale police operation involving police, rescue workers and one helicopter, Sky News said.

     

    The blast was initially reported to have been caused by a gas leak.

     

    News agency Dpa reports that an open-air concert nearby with some 2,500 in attendance was shut down as a precaution after the explosion.

     

    Additionally,  AP reports that

    Police in the southern German city of Ansbach say the man was killed when an explosive device he was believed to be carrying went off near an open-air music festival,

    The only question left now is how long before an otherwise patient German population react after three apparent mass attacks in one week?

  • Deep Underground Military Bases? California Hit By Mysterious Clockwork "Booms" Daily For Years

    Submitted by Piper McGowan via The Daily Sheeple,

    For years now, residents of Sonora, California have been hearing a window-shaking loud and so far officially unexplained BOOM! that always happens between 11 a.m. and 2 p.m. daily.

    Inquisitr reports that the explanation floating around Sonora from a local geologist/teacher is that an Army Depot in Hawthorne, Nevada, all the way across the state and behind a mountain range which disposes of old munitions like bombs, might be what residents have been hearing.

    But do they have so many old bombs to dispose of that they do it daily every single day even on weekends and holidays without fail for years? Why would Sonora, California of all locations near Hawthorne be the seemingly most affected city of all?

    Besides, even people who work at the depot aren’t hearing the booms regularly (via ABC News):

    Ken Thomas, a contracting officer for the Hawthorne Army Depot, told ABC News today that they do detonate munitions regularly at the depot when the munitions are past their shelf-life, but he is not convinced that it can be heard in Sonora.

     

    “It doesn’t feel right that what we’re doing here would be heard 200 miles away when there’s a mountain range in between us,” Thomas said. “My office is 27 miles from where they detonate the old munitions, I only hear it here maybe one time a month, and just barely and it’s like ‘Was that a boom?'”

    On top of that, not only are they clockwork, but these have been described as deep, low booms which can almost be felt by the people who live there. In fact, a friend who lives near Sonora said that sometimes they can actually see their windows warp during the booms.

    So what is it? Lots of conspiracies are, of course, floating around including aliens (as per the usual).

    But one in particular sounds a lot more plausible than an old weapons depot that’s a three-hour drive from Sonora: DUMBs.

    Deep underground military bases.

    We all know there’s an extensive network of them which has been significantly expanded since 9/11 and the creation of Homeland Security

    …and we’re all just supposed to put our fingers in our ears and go “la la la” and pretend like they don’t exist.

    The tunneling project is a joint venture involving the National Security Agency, CIA, FBI, MiB, Homeland Security & a few other groups that are buried in the Congressional Intelligence Committees with some weird acronyms no one really understands. Much of the info on this comes from private citizens in the county, public officials, as well as Coast to Coast with George Noory & Art Bell. These shows have given incredibly good information on the topic for the last several months, beginning in late 2003…

     

    According to the information available, there are several reasons for the project:

     

    1) Homeland Security needs an system of rapid deployment in the South, free of traffic;

    2) certain gov't agencies want an easy connection route with other gov't installations in the South;

    3) there is a move on in the intelligence community to begin more efficient use of the underground rail system already in place at Lockheed in Marietta;

    4) Paulding is a central location for the complete project that will eventually connect installations in Anniston, AL; Macon, GA; Lockheed in Marietta; Lookout Mtn, TN; Greenville-Spartanburg, SC; & Raleigh-Durham, NC;

    5) the Yorkville area of Paulding has been designated as the prime location for these hubs to come together because of geological preference;

    6) the addition of new Walmart facilities in NW GA give spur hubs & depots easy access to large areas that can be partitioned off for moving of very large equipment & large numbers of people in case of national emergency.

    (source)

    Kinda like the CIA kept pretending Area 51 didn’t exist for decades until it was finally, quietly admitted it in 2013.

  • "Game Over" – Nintendo Crashes Most Since 1990 After Admitting "Limited Earnings Impact" From Pokemon Go

    Update: Things have proceeded south… Nintendo is now down over 17% – the biggest drop since October 1990… following Super Mario World’s release on the NES & Gameboy and the crash in the Tokyo Stock Market…

     

    After the close Friday, Nintendo admitted that the earnings impact from the newly-released ‘Pokemon Go’ game would be limited (and that it has no plans to adjust its forecasts). This has sent Nintendo shares down over 16% today, following last Wednesday’s 12% collapse. 

     

    Nintendo has given up half its panic-buying gains of last week…

     

    Today’s drop is the largest since March 2000…


  • Did Verizon Just Signal The Top?

    The last time AOL (bought by Verizon in May 2015) was involved in a mega merger was January 2000, when AOL acquired Time Warner for $182 billion in what was the mega deal of the last tech bubble, creating a $350 billion behemoth… which nearly dragged down both companies a few years later. The timing could not have been more perfect as it marked the tech bubble top…

    Will it happen again?

    As Bloomberg reports, Verizon Communications will announce plans to buy Yahoo!’s core assets for about $4.8 billion on Monday, a move that would finally seal the fate of the iconic web pioneer after months of speculation and pressure from investors.

    News of the takeover is expected to come before the market opens, said a person with direct knowledge of the situation who asked not to be identified because the information isn’t public. The deal includes Yahoo real estate assets, while some intellectual property is to be sold separately, the person said. Yahoo will be left with its stakes in Alibaba and Yahoo Japan, with a combined market value of about $40 billion.

     

    With its core wireless business maturing, Verizon is expected to keep Yahoo mostly intact to compete with Alphabet’s Google and Facebook in digital ads by tapping into users on sites like Yahoo Finance. The takeover will double the size of Verizon’s digital advertising, placing it as a distant third behind Google and Facebook in the $187 billion market.

     

    “The deal speaks to a clear strategy shift at Verizon,” Craig Moffett, an analyst with MoffettNathanson, said Sunday. “They are trying to monetize wireless in an entirely new way. Instead of charging customers for traffic, they are turning to charging advertisers for eyeballs.”

    Desperately overpaying for already over-valued assets with market-wide valuations at record levels. What could go wrong?

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Today’s News 24th July 2016

  • Koch Brothers Now Supporting "Often Confused" Hillary Clinton

    Authored by Eric Zuesse,

    On July 20th, a Republican U.S. Senator lost his main financial backers for having urged Republicans to vote for Donald Trump instead of for Hillary Clinton.

    The Koch brothers speak with their words, which can’t be trusted, but they also speak with their money, their investments, which are always honest expressions of their actual beliefs and desires. This time, the Kochs spoke with their money, just a day after that Senator spoke with his words.

    They spoke with their investments on July 19th, when they yanked their money from a U.S. Senator whom they had always financially backed, until now; and they did it immediately after that Senator not only went to the Republican National Convention where Donald Trump was to be nominated, but he gave there a powerful argument for Republicans to vote for Trump.

    U.S. Senator Ron Johnson, from Wisconsin, told the assembled Convention (and the far larger number of people outside the Convention), on July 19th (and this is what the Kochs abandoned him over):

    Let me repeat that — RADICAL ISLAMIC TERRORISTS — slaughtering and brutalizing their innocent victims.

     

    So the question is, when will America actually confront this terrible reality?

     

    We certainly won’t if Democrats win in November. …

     

    Hillary Clinton is asking America to give her Obama’s third term.

     

    The world is simply too dangerous to elect either of them [either Democrat Russ Feingold who is running to win the Republican Johnson’s Senate seat, or Hillary Clinton].

     

    Instead, America needs strong leadership. Leaders who will jumpstart our economy, secure our borders, strengthen our military, and accomplish the goal President Obama set over twenty-two months ago [but failed to fulfill]: We must defeat ISIS, and then remain fully committed to destroying Islamic terrorists wherever they hide. …

     

    It is a fight we absolutely must win.

     

    Donald Trump and Mike Pence understand that these must be America’s top priorities. They will be strong leaders, working with Republicans in the House and Senate to achieve a goal that can unite us all: A safe, prosperous, and secure America.

     

    Our future hangs in the balance. We must unify, work tirelessly, and together, save this great nation.

    Unlike John Kasich, who had refused even to attend the Convention at all, or Ted Cruz, who did attend but refused to say anything at all in favor of Trump, Johnson was now actually campaigning for Trump against Hillary.

    The next day, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel bannered "Koch brothers pull ad buy backing Ron Johnson”, and reported that, "A day after U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin spoke at the Republican National Convention, a group affiliated with the conservative Koch brothers pulled more than $2 million in ad time in the Badger State.”

    In other words: immediately after one of their owned Senators campaigned for Trump, they cut off his main monetary lifeline.

    This is a warning to any other Republican who might still be considering to campaign for Trump; it says, loud and clear: If you do that, you lose us.

    The Koch-led contingent of Republican billionaires and centi-millionaires is one of two Republican financial-backer contingents. The other is led by Karl Rove.

    The Koch-led network of billionaires (who rely upon hiring academia and media for manipulating voters), and the Rove-led network of billionaires (who rely far more heavily upon garnering Wall Street money and Evangelical clergy for manipulating voters), have long been the two financial mainstays of the Republican Party. The Kochs have now made unmistakably clear that they want Hillary Clinton to become the next President (and, thus, academics and the media will overwhelmingly support Hillary). Previously, there was question as to whether the Kochs would go so far as to help a Democrat; but, now, there is no serious doubt about it: they already do (though as quietly as possible, and not in their own — often lying — mere words).

    The Rove-led billionaires’ faction are also strongly inclined to prefer Hillary, but can’t afford to alienate the Republican electorate, and so they will continue to support other Republicans but not Trump. (Consequently, Ron Johnson, for example, still can get their money.) They aren’t as emphatic about their backing of Hillary as the Koch-led faction is. They won’t withdraw their financial support from Republicans (such as Johnson) who campaign for Trump. They aren’t really pro-Hillary; but the Koch-contingent now are.

    And then, of course, there’s Rupert Murdoch. On 17 May 2016, Gabriel Sherman headlined in New York magazine, “Why Rupert Murdoch Decided to Back Trump”, and he wrote: “According to one Fox News producer, the channel's ratings dip whenever an anti-Trump segment airs. A Fox anchor told me that the message from Roger Ailes's executives is they need to go easy on Trump. ‘It’s, ‘Make sure we don't go after Trump,’ the anchor said. ‘We’ve thrown in the towel.’” However, Sherman also noted that Murdoch’s Wall Street Journal was supporting Hillary. Murdoch has long been fond of her; and, in the pages of the WSJ, he still enjoys the freedom to shape the ‘news’ to favor her (something that would lose him audience if he were to do it at Fox). (He also supports both Obama and the Bushes. In one photo at a lobbyists’ dinner, he’s surrounded at his left by Obama’s longtime aide Valerie Jarret, and at his right by Jeb Bush, all three smiling like friends; but, in any case, all three are supporters of that same far-right Republican lobbying organization. At the top in American society, there is real bipartisanship. Another photo displaying such bipartisanship is of Donald and Melania Trump, and Bill and Hillary Clinton, warmly socializing together. These people aren’t at all enemies of one-another; they just play that on TV, in print, and etc. Those are the roles they play, not really who they are.)

    Even as early as October 2015, it was clear that the Republican Party’s mega-donors were already contributing more money to Hillary Clinton’s campaign than to Donald Trump’s. They also were contributing more than they were to Clinton’s campaign, to each the Republican Presidential campaigns of: John Kasich, Scott Walker, Ben Carson, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, and (the most of all, to) Jeb Bush. So, in the ultimate 17-candidate Republican field, Hillary was already getting more of the 2012 Romney donors’ money than was each campaign of Lindsey Graham, Rand Paul, Carly Fiorina, Chris Christie, Rick Perry, Mike Huckabee, Donald Trump, Bobby Jindal, Rick Santorum, George Pataki, and (the least of all, they donated to) Jim Gilmore. So, if she were added to that 17-candidate Republican-candidate list, she’d have been #7 out of the 18 recipients of Republican money. (And that’s not even counting the money from Democratic-Party megadonors — virtually all of whom donated and donate only to Clinton.)

    Perhaps Trump is hoping to get lots more contributions from Democratic donors than previous Republican Presidential nominees have. But he certainly won’t be able to come even close to matching Hillary’s campaign warchest, which is widely expected to break all previous records — and for good reason. (In fact, Hillary as the State Department chief, was, behind-the-scenes, ferociously assisting the Koch brothers, regarding the Keystone XL Pipeline project and other government-policy matters. She’s a proven dynamo for the super-rich.)

    The question regarding Trump as President would be: would he sell the government (perhaps at low prices to his friends and at high prices to his enemies) for various prices (as Clinton already has done — sold it to both her friends and her ‘enemies’ — but which sales she now only needs to deliver on); or would he, instead, refuse to sell it, and actually try to run the U.S. government for and on behalf of the American public? He has no actual record in public office; so, there’s no way of answering that question, unless and until he becomes President. But if Hillary Clinton becomes President, then the outcome would be much more certain, because she already has a lengthy record in ‘public’ service. It’s one that the Kochs probably appreciate very much. (And especially Hillary’s record as the U.S. Secretary of State is informative about the type of President she would make. Her real priorities are clear by her actions, though not at all by her words. By contrast, Trump’s priorities are, and might long remain, a mystery.)

    *  *  *

    Investigative historian Eric Zuesse is the author, most recently, of  They’re Not Even Close: The Democratic vs. Republican Economic Records, 1910-2010, and of  CHRIST’S VENTRILOQUISTS: The Event that Created Christianity.

    And so it seems, after all the talk, The Koch Brothers would prefer not to place their hardly-earned money with an unknown entity like Trump, preferring instead to bet on the known entity supporting their status qup… even though even her own staff admit "she's often confused"…

    Source: Judicial Watch vs State emails

    Presumably that's an even better bet for The Kochs as it enables the puppet-mastery.

  • All You Need To Know About Germany's "Most Stringent" Gun Ownership Laws

    An 18-year-old German-Iranian believed to have acted alone killed nine people in a shooting spree with a pistol at a busy shopping center in Munich on Friday evening. This is just the latest in a spree of 'mass shootings' which have prompted increasingly zealous calls for 'gun control' from President Obama and his supporters. With 2 dead and 16 wounded in Chicago (which is among America's most-gun-controlled cities), we thought some facts about acquiring and owning a gun in Germany (which has the "most stringent" rules around gun control in Europe) might be useful in the forthcoming debate about how this 'mass shooting' epidemic will be solved if we all just hand our guns over.

    1. Germany has some of the "most stringent" rules around gun control in Europe, according to the U.S. Library of Congress. (https://www.loc.gov/law/help/firearms-control/germany.php#t1)

     

    2. To own a gun in Germany, it is necessary to obtain a weapon licence for which applicants must generally be at least 18 years old and show they have they have a reason for needing a weapon.

     

    3. German authorities can prohibit anyone who is dependent on drugs or alcohol or is mentally ill from obtaining a gun license. People under 25 have to undergo a psychiatric test. (https://www.gesetze-im-internet.de/waffg_2002/BJNR397010002.html)

     

    4. After a teenager shot 15 people dead at a school in the southwestern town of Winnenden in 2009, Germany tightened the rules around firearms. Among other things, authorities were given greater authority to check whether guns were stored securely when not in use, and can make spot checks. (http://www.bmi.bund.de/DE/Themen/Sicherheit/Waffenrecht/Aenderungen-Waff…)

     

    5. Almost 5.5 million firearms are owned privately in Germany by around 1.4 million people, according to data from the German Firearms Register in early 2013. Germany's population is about 82 million. (http://www.bva.bund.de/SharedDocs/Kurzmeldungen/DE/BVA/Sicherheit/NWR/20…)

     

    6. There are up to 20 million illegal firearms in Germany, the daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung cited experts in Germany as saying in January. (http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/in-deutschland-gibt-es-bis-zu-…)

     

    By comparison, website GunPolicy.org says between 270 million to 310 million legal and illegal firearms are owned by civilians in the United States, where the population is about 324 million. (http://www.gunpolicy.org/firearms/region/united-states)

     

    7. The Federal Criminal Police Office said in its 2015 annual report that the use of firearms had been on a downward trend for years. In 2015 there were 4,289 cases of people being threatened with firearms – the lowest level since 1993. There were 4,711 cases of people or things being shot at in 2015, it said. (file:///C:/Users/U0148792/Downloads/pks2015Jahrbuch.pdf)

     

    8. There were 57 gun homicides in Germany in 2015, up from 42 the previous year – compared with 804 in 1995, according to website GunPolicy.org (http://www.gunpolicy.org/firearms/region/germany)

    And yet… mass shootings still happen? Inconceivable! Nevertheless, we are sure 'gun control' in America makes much more sense because a defenseless populous will be somehow safer?

    Source: Reuters

  • A Post Western World? A Disturbing Interview With Prof. Harry Redner

    Submitted by Erico Matias Tavares of Sinclair & Co

    A Post Western World? An Interview with Prof. Harry Redner – Part I

    Prof. Harry Redner was Reader at Monash University in Melbourne, Australia, as well as visiting professor at Yale University, University of California-Berkeley and Harvard University. He postulates that the world is now transitioning to “beyond civilization” – a new and unprecedented condition in Human History known as globalization. This in turn has major implications for societies across the world, and in particular developed nations.

    He is the author of several articles and fourteen books, including a tetralogy on civilization: “Beyond Civilization: Society, Culture, and the Individual in the Age of Globalization”, “Totalitarianism, Globalization, Colonialism: The Destruction of Civilization since 1914”, “The Tragedy of European Civilization: Towards an Intellectual History of the Twentieth Century” and “The Triumph and Tragedy of the Intellectuals: Evil, Enlightenment, and Death”.

    PART I: GENERAL TRENDS AND THE END OF WESTERN CIVILIZATION

    The political and economic issues broadly discussed in the media usually revolve around political cycles, terrorism, foreign policy, rising debt levels, sluggish economic performance, academic underachievement, environmental problems, ageing demographics and so forth.

    In our view, this all ties into a major cycle of history that has been with us for some time, and which has been gaining traction since the 1990s: the end of Western Civilization and the transition towards a globalized society. There is some confusion between the two terms, where the latter is often perceived as the continuation of the former, but in reality the two have been in conflict for almost 100 years.

    We are delighted to get Prof. Harry Redner’s views on this topic, which he has studied and written about extensively. The political, social and economic ramifications are likely to be life changing in the years to come. Politicians, investors and citizens all over the world should take note.

    E. Tavares: Prof. Redner, thank you for being with us today. Let’s start with a basic yet difficult to define concept: what is civilization?

    H. Redner: How and why it originated and how it developed further are extremely contentious issues, about which the views of specialists from at least half a dozen disciplines are frequently at odds. It has been debated for centuries and will continue so for the foreseeable future. My own views on these matters carry no special weight and everything I have to say can be disputed and, indeed, will be so, as there are no final conclusive answers to these ultimate questions. But for what they are worth, I will present a few of my provisional thoughts.

    Civilization is a necessary and inevitable stage in human development. When human societies increase in number and productive capacity, when they become more integrated through communication, trade and authority systems and, above all, when higher cultures and mentalities above those of primitive shamanistic cults, spirit worship and fetishist symbolism arise, civilization takes off as the next stage of human development.

    This happened at different times and places all over the globe, first along the river valleys of Mesopotamia and the Nile, later along those of the Indus and Yellow Rivers; later still, and completely autonomously, under different conditions in Mesoamerica and in the Andes. There is a syndrome of features, most of which these early civilizations display, more or less completely in each case, such as the rise of cities, the formation of states, class differentiations, the invention of methods of writing and organized religion, together with a mythological creed or pantheon.

    However, my interest is not in these early civilizations but only in the later, more developed ones, those that survived until the start of the twentieth century. These are the so-called post-Axial Age civilizations. The idea of an Axial Age, which occurred approximately between 700 and 300 BC, was developed by the German philosopher Karl Jaspers to refer to this period when the first philosophies and universal religions arose that have persisted till now. It is a curious and still unexplained historical coincidence that many of the great thinkers and sages, such as Zoroaster, Pythagoras, deutero-Isaiah, the Buddha, Confucius and Lao-Tse all lived around 500BC in widely dispersed places. The post-Axial civilizations are based on their teachings.

    In each case what was crucial for the rise and development of these civilizations was the construction of a higher form of literacy embodied in a set of canonical texts and, stemming from these, a higher form of ethical conduct. The figures of the philosopher, prophet, sage, saint, ascetic monk, scholar, rabbi and mandarin, as bearers of the highest values of literacy and ethics, arose respectively in each of the resulting civilizations. Invariably, but with some crucial exceptions, empires were founded by conquerors and rulers based on these values, which were given an organized form in schools of philosophy or law, monastic orders or churches or other types of scholarly or religious institutions. These have mostly lasted till our time. But since the start of the twentieth century at the very latest they were undermined and came under attack from many quarters in a general disruption of established traditions all over the world.

    ET: Can you briefly summarize what makes Western Civilization different? Was the Greek classical tradition what made it take root across Europe, or was there something else at play?

    HR: The term “Western Civilization” is used ambiguously in two somewhat different senses: it can refer to the whole development of civilization in the West from its Greek origin to its European culmination, or alternatively, it can refer only to the latter, namely to the civilization of Europe that began to flourish around 1000AD. This is a distinct form of civilization different from the Classical or Greco-Roman civilization based on the Mediterranean that lasted approximately till 500AD, as well as from the Byzantine civilization, located largely in what is now Turkey and the Balkans that followed. Clearly, there were strong historical, cultural and religious continuities between these three civilizational stages, which is the reason that they can be collectively called Western Civilization in the broad sense.

    Western Civilization in the narrow sense, namely European civilization, had one of its roots in the Classical Greco-Roman tradition, but its other crucial root lay in Judaism, as developed and enlarged by Christianity. The key text of this civilization is and remains the Judaeo-Christian Bible, which is why it is often referred to as a Judaeo-Christian Civilization.

    What made European civilization different was its capacity to absorb all earlier Western civilizational forms, which manifested itself in numerous Renaissances and Reformations. During the Renaissances, the first of which took place in the 12th century, it went back to its roots in classical civilization; during its Reformations and counter-Reformations it went back to its biblical roots, back to the prophets, the Gospels and the Church Fathers. Each time it gained renewed cultural vigor.

    Politically, what made European Civilization so unusual was that it never unified into a single empire, as all the others had done at one time or another. But Europe always remained divided and resisted all attempts at imperial unification and domination. Instead of a single empire, it evolved politically into a system of kingdoms, principalities and semi-autonomous cities, together with a Church, also vying for power, which itself broke up during the Reformation. This meant that no single authority could ever maintain complete control over all of Europe and no single orthodoxy in respect of anything could prevail everywhere.

    This is the secret source of European freedom and individualism. It gave rise to the conditions that fostered competition and contention that proved immensely conducive to creativity and innovation. Its dark obverse side was continual strife and wars which proved most damaging when they irrupted as religious wars and persecutions, and which eventually in the twentieth century turned into ideological wars that almost destroyed European Civilization.

    ET: It can be said that Western Civilization reached its pinnacle just before the First World War. Clearly the subsequent loss of entire generations of would-be scientists, teachers, civil servants, doctors, priests, engineers, patriots, mothers, fathers and children in devastating conflicts was something the West never really recovered from. The peace and prosperity that Europeans have achieved since then masks this fact, certainly in relative terms. What are your thoughts here? 

    HR: Certainly the First World War was the proximal inciting cause for a process of civilizational destruction in Europe and the rest of the world that is still going on.

    It was not so much the killing in itself, though that was bad enough – a large part of a generation of young men was sacrificed – as the demoralization and loss of faith in the enlightenment values of liberalism and democracy by which Europe had been guided in the nineteenth century and towards which most countries were moving.

    This was particularly virulent in the countries on the losing side, beginning with Russia, where it led to the Bolshevik Revolution, which briefly spread to much of central Europe; and in Italy, which was on the winning side but in danger of a Bolshevik takeover, and where a Fascist reaction ensued. Soviet totalitarianism in Russia devastated its culture and society, in a process started by Lenin and Trotsky and concluded by Stalin. This upheaval might have been contained and stopped from spreading to the rest of Europe were it not for the Great Depression, which destroyed any hope for democracy and led almost inevitably to the Second World War with all its devastating consequences.

    After that war, Europe lay prostrate and divided by the Cold War into two mutually closed off spheres. With American aid, Western Europe rebuilt itself materially remarkably quickly; in Eastern Europe under Soviet domination this happened much more slowly. However, there was no moral or cultural recovery. European Civilization did not rise like a phoenix from the ashes. It languished for a while and now seems to be petering out.

    ET: As you argue persuasively in your books, totalitarianism ended up being a major force behind the destruction of European Civilization. However, the likes of Mussolini and Hitler rose to power by promising their nations that they would regain the commanding role in its progression – at the expense of others through the use of extreme violence. Are there inherent conflicts within Western Civilization or was totalitarianism an accident of history?

    HR: Totalitarianism was an accident of history only to the extent that the First World War was an accident of history – a very tragic accident with calamitous consequences. There was nothing in European Civilization as such, or as it was developing during the nineteenth century, necessitating the First World War. On the contrary, everything seemed to point to the impossibility of such a war.

    However, the war was no accident in so far as the disposition of the great power alliances was concerned. This was bound to lead to some kind of war, though not necessarily to the First World War, a war of great duration and unprecedented ferocity. The two sides were too evenly matched for either to quickly defeat the other. Had Germany won the war during the first or even second year there would have been no revolution in Russia and no totalitarianism there or in Italy. Europe would have been saved the worst, at least for a long while, though it would have fallen under German domination, but that would have been by far the lesser evil.

    Hitler’s rise to power and Nazi totalitarianism was the direct consequence of the outcome of the First World War together with the Great Depression. In a sense, the latter, too, was the outcome of an accident of economic history, just like the Global Financial Crisis we have recently experienced. Nevertheless, there were robust historical causes behind both events. The idea of an “accident of history” is a relative one, for what is accidental in relation to one set of developments, generally of a broad type, is causally necessitated in relation to another set. There is no such thing as a “historical accident” in any absolute sense.

    In the case of totalitarianism we cannot discount the role of individuals of exceptional ability, especially when this is conducive to evil, such as Lenin, Stalin, Hitler and Mao and others such as Mussolini and Franco to a lesser extent. Are they accidents of history or rather men that rise to great heights when history provides them with the opportunities for doing so? Do they make history or does history make them? These are the kinds of issues that need to be considered when accounting for so-called “accidents of history”.

    ET: You also talk about the role that some prominent European philosophers played in the formation of these destructive ideologies, something which is seldom discussed. Which ones do you believe made the biggest contribution to the development of European and Soviet totalitarianism?

    HR: Totalitarianism could not have arisen without political ideologies; and such ideologies could not have emerged without philosophers and other types of intellectuals, some of them men of great genius. Behind Bolshevism there stands the great social theorist Marx and behind Nazism the almost as great thinker, Nietzsche. However, neither Marx nor Nietzsche is directly responsible for Bolshevism or Nazism; a long chain of mediating accessory figures had to be active in transitioning from the philosophical thought to the political ideology. These intermediaries were themselves intellectuals of a lesser kind, and there were literally hundreds of them.

    Prior to the First World War, Marxism was being successfully adapted to the needs of democratic workers’ movements of socialist parties throughout Europe. Only in Czarist Russia, where the Marxist party was illegal, did a splinter movement of those calling themselves Bolsheviks arise under the leadership of Lenin, in opposition to the majority of moderate Marxists who called themselves Mensheviks. Lenin’s Bolshevik ideology was a far cry from classical Western Marxism being in large part inspired by Russian insurrectionist traditions.

    Hitler’s Nazi ideology, based on virulent anti-Semitism and nationalistic imperialism, was also far removed from the classical German philosophies of Fichte, Schopenhauer and Nietzsche, on which it based itself. But there were many German intellectuals who applied these philosophical ideas in ways which, at their most extreme and crudest, led to the Nazi ideology as Hitler enunciated it, and as the German people subsequently accepted it.

    Again it needs to be stressed that this could not have happened were it not for the demoralizing effects of the First World War and the Great Depression that followed. The role of the intellectuals in these complex processes of creation, distortion and political application of theoretical ideas, I have studied in my latest publication entitled The Triumph and Tragedy of the Intellectuals.

    ET: We are all familiar with the destructive results of revolutionary communism, particularly as it matured under full totalitarianism under Stalin and Mao. However, there were other political thinkers which advocated a much more subversive approach for the implementation of communism in the West, such as Gramsci for instance.

    Shocked that during World War I workers ended up fighting other workers instead of the “maleficent” bourgeois, these thinkers reasoned that this was because Europeans were too conditioned by their own nationalism, families and religion – all of which broadly formed the basis of their civilization. So to achieve communism these institutions had to be eradicated from society, not necessarily by force like in Russia or China, but by progressive infiltration and ideological replacement of the media, education, politics, unions and even the religious institutions themselves.

    However, European political elites post-Second World War also supported the replacement of these institutions in society by the state, or more specifically, the superstate which is now known as the European Union. So there was a curious confluence of interests in this process, all under the guise of eliminating the “evils” that supposedly led to the disasters of twentieth century Europe and creating a more egalitarian society. What are your thoughts here?

    HR: Marxism is a very broad church which can accommodate a huge variety of thinkers, social movements and political parties. Some of these were close to the political ideology of Russian Bolshevism, whereas others were far removed from it and closer to the enlightenment ideas of Marx himself, at least in his early humanistic works. Where a thinker like Gramsci stands in this Marxist line-up is difficult to determine, because he wrote his works in the relative “freedom” of Mussolini’s jail, where he was not subject to the immediate Comintern pressure; but at the same time he had to write in code and could not express himself openly on all issues. Had he escaped to Moscow, as his colleague, the later Italian leader Togliatti did, he would have been compelled to become a Stalinist and could not have developed his ideas. Much later, Gramsci’s ideas became the basis of the Italian Communist Party, and thereby of Euro-Communism.

    As Euro-Communism demonstrates, there is nothing in Marxism as such that precludes it from being tolerant and accepting towards religion, family and other such personal traditional values, even though in fact, most Marxists were atheists. However, some Christians were Marxists, including those within the Catholic Church itself who preached liberation ideology or took part in worker-priest movements. The relation between Marxism and Christianity is an extremely complex historical issue that went through many phases from outright hostility to mutual accommodation.

    The role of the state in relation to traditional values, social institutions and culture in general is an overwhelming topic that can only be treated in a book-length work. By the state, we mean, of course, the nation-state, the prevalent European form. Prior to the First World War, the nation-state had by and large a positive social and cultural effect. It enabled new nations to flourish, particularly Germany and Italy, and led to national revivals throughout Europe, especially in the East. But at the same time, the nation state was a militaristic institution that led to the disasters of the First World War and what followed with the totalitarian states, the very worst manifestation of the nation-state.

    Since the Second World War, the state in Western Europe has become increasingly a welfare state. It has had some remarkable successes but also incurred some failures. Its greatest achievement has been to bring about a considerable degree of economic social justice, especially in class-ridden societies like Britain. The kind of grinding poverty prevalent before the First World War is now no longer in evidence.

    On the other hand, state education seems to have been largely a failure and has led to considerable miseducation in many respects: in the case of schools for the poor being barely able to instill the rudiments of the three Rs (“Reading”, “Writing” and “Arithmetic”). In Britain, private schools and the ancient universities are still the bulwarks of the class system. Of course, there are some European countries, generally the smaller ones, where state education has achieved a much better outcome.

    The inception of the European Union has so far neither improved nor worsened this general condition to any great extent. Imposing a single model for all of Europe in some respects, such as in university education, is very likely a backward step. On the other hand, enabling regions with ethnic or cultural minorities to partially escape the iron grip of the nation-state is a positive step. Much more could be said about this of course.

    ET: In addition to developing its own brand of destructive political philosophies, the West unleashed upon the world the Forces of Modernity, as you call them. These are generally perceived as an extension of Western Civilization, but you contend that they are now destroying it. Can you describe these forces and why they are problematic for civilization?

    HR: By the term “Forces of Modernity” I mean the crucial economic, political, cognitive and technical respects, according to which nearly all societies in the world are now organized and managed, namely modern capitalism, the modern state, science and technology.

    These arose unequivocally only in the European West from approximately 1500 onwards. There were other variants of these both in the Greco-Roman world and in other non-Western civilizations, particularly in China, but they do not approach what Europe achieved in these respects. The causes that made Europe alone to embark on this course, which during the nineteenth century was called “Progress”, are many and varied and are generally disputed among the major theorists on these matters, such as Marx, Weber and many subsequent thinkers. We no longer regard it as progress in any ameliorative sense, for we recognize its many drawbacks and consequences that are inimical to civilization.

    During the nineteenth century up to the First World War, the Forces of Modernity were still largely in keeping with the main trends in Western Civilization, especially in America. But in non-Western societies they were having a disastrous effect on all the still surviving civilizations. Their introduction undermined traditional authorities, religions, cultures and values. They gradually prevailed all over the world, either being imposed by colonialism or through the desire to ward off colonialism by emulating the Western powers. America forced Japan to open its doors and accept the Forces of Modernity, and when the Japanese realized they had no choice about it they did so very successfully. It was a much more fraught and conflict-ridden matter in China and the Ottoman Empire.

    In the West itself, the situation began to change drastically following the First World War. The nature of this war and all subsequent ones was the direct outcome of the development of the Forces of Modernity in all European societies during the nineteenth century. The huge expansion of the state power since the French Revolution, the introduction of universal conscription and a state sanctioned education system provided millions of trained and ideologically enthused soldiers ready to sacrifice themselves at the behest of their nation state. The vast expansion of mass production that capitalism brought about enabled such mass armies to be armed, equipped and supplied for many years. Science and technology invented new weapons for mass slaughter and new machines of war, some already developed before the war, but many arising out of war-time research itself. The world has made enormous progress in these respects since and it is possible that the latest discoveries and inventions will bring civilization to an end and perhaps wipe out humanity itself. It almost happened a number of times, and it was only sheer luck that saved us in the nick of time.

    This is where the Forces of Modernity have brought us. But at the same time, humanity cannot do without them, for only the combination of capitalism, the state, science and technology can provide for, order, control and organize the mass of humanity, swollen to huge numbers, now inhabiting the world, without completely despoiling the natural environment and bringing disaster in another way. This is at least our hope and what we must endeavor to achieve.

    ET: And the outcome of these forces is “globalization”? If they prevail, how does a post civilization world looks like?

    HR: What we now call globalization is a condition where the Forces of Modernity are prevailing in all societies all over the world; they are becoming increasingly more integrated precisely through the prevalence of these forces. We are increasingly being faced with a uniform and homogenous world, in which all particularities and identities are gradually being eroded. This bodes ill for social relations, for cultures, for spiritual aspirations, for individuality, indeed for everything that civilizations offered in the past to make human life meaningful. There is still a long way to go before any such negative conditions might eventuate, for there is still much left of the old civilizations, especially Western Civilization and its cultural heritage. There is no inevitability about any outcome and much we can do to forestall the worst.

    Nevertheless, we must now recognize that humanity is now entering a new and dangerous historical condition unlike any of those it ever encountered in the past. It is no longer a matter of one civilization falling, to be replaced by another, such as happened when Europe arose after the collapse of the Roman Empire. Now all civilizations are endangered and none can survive as autonomous, independent entities as in the past. It is in this sense that we are now moving to a historical stage that is beyond civilization.

    This does not mean that we must abandon any further thought of civilization. On the contrary, we must do all we can to save what is left of civilization and prevent it from vanishing completely, as is now happening. This will require a coordinated human effort on the part of all major societies in the world. Whether this will ultimately succeed or fail or what the future holds for a globalized humanity is, of course, for us unpredictable.

    Hence, I have no idea what a post-civilizational world will look like, except to surmise that unless some way is found to counter the worst of the present trends towards soulless uniformity, it will not be a world which I would like our children and grandchildren to inherit.

    ET: But by suppressing European identities, national democracies and centralizing political power, isn’t the European Union an offshoot of those Forces of Modernity? As such, do the British people have a point in saying that getting out in the recent referendum is a necessity to regain their country and even their culture back?

    HR: I do not altogether agree that the European Union is “suppressing European identities, national democracies, and centralizing political power.” I hold that it is a far more limited undertaking made necessary by the collapse of Europe after the Second World War, the Cold War and since then, by the ever increasing economic competition from the new giants of Asia, first Japan, then China and now India emerging as a global power.

    In response to such multiple pressures, and with the encouragement of America, Europe did move towards economic and, to a limited extent, political integration, starting with France and Germany and bringing in more and more countries, eventually after the fall of Communism also those of Eastern Europe. But how far it will proceed is not yet decided. Everything in Europe’s past speaks against a “United States of Europe”. But that need not forestall a very open European common market with considerable labor mobility. There are centripetal forces for unity and centrifugal forces for dispersion: how these opposed tendencies will work themselves out in the future is also impossible to predict.

    Thus far, I believe, the benefits have been considerable and the adverse consequences as yet not disastrous. This could reverse itself if the Mediterranean countries in the Eurozone prove unable to escape the poverty trap of a strong currency that prevents them devaluing and trading their way out of trouble. Their present levels of unemployment, especially among the young, are unsustainable. On the other hand, incorporating and integrating the former communist countries of Eastern Europe has been an enormous achievement, but one that has also had some unintended bad consequences for other countries in Europe.

    The free movement of labor that brought millions of Eastern Europeans, especially Poles, into Britain was undoubtedly one of the main causes for the working-class revolt and vote for Brexit. The open-borders policy that brought a million refugees from the civil wars in Syria and Afghanistan, as well as economic migrants from all parts of Africa and Asia in an uncoordinated and uncontrolled flow was obviously mismanaged. This gave many Europeans, including those who were less affected, a fright. It was such a concatenation of incidental factors that had unexpectedly arisen in the last few years that brought Brexit about, rather than any thought-through dissatisfaction with the European Union. Cameron should never have allowed the matter to be decided by one referendum. It was a political misjudgment on his part.

    I predict – always a foolhardy matter – that the effects of Brexit will be far smaller than those who advocate it wish. Theresa May and Angela Merkel, two very astute politicians, will reach a deal whereby Britain will remain close to Europe and any disruptions minimized on both sides. This could easily go awry if there is a huge exodus of multinational firms from Britain sinking the British economy; if Scotland and Northern Ireland vote for independence; or if the Conservative Party and the Labor Party break up and some other more Right wing, or, less likely, more Left wing political party comes to power. All these are possible, but, I believe, unlikely from our present point of view.

    ET: As mentioned above, the state has gradually replaced the role of traditional Western institutions, a tendency which has accelerated in recent decades. As a result, there is now a complete dependency on the state to care and provide for large segments of the population, which in turn requires enormous, ever growing resources to sustain.

    A byproduct of all this is a huge incentive for the misallocation of resources and even corruption, since politicians now command huge portions of the economy and society. In a democracy votes can be bought by promising all sorts of free goodies to the electorate, who in turn will never vote for anyone that will change the system they depend on, even if it is demonstrably on an unsustainable trajectory.

    Has the growth of the state along these lines further corroded European values and morals? As a result, can any European government be truly reformed at this point via the ballot box?

    HR: It is true that dependence on the state is increasing in European countries and that states are consuming a considerable proportion of their society’s resources. But the reasons for this vary and are not the same everywhere. The two most contrasting countries are Sweden and Greece.

    Sweden is the great success story of the Welfare State and its effects on society. A century ago, it was a poor country, but in the course of the twentieth century it has gone from strength to strength, economically, socially and politically. High taxation rates have not affected its productive capacity; its firms flourish as never before. Its political system is a byword for democracy and popular consultation. Corruption is minimal.

    Greece is just the opposite in all these respects. Apart from exploiting its sunshine, beaches, and building hotels, it has failed to develop economically. Tax evasion is rife. The state has been completely mismanaged, as political parties vied with each other by bribing the electorate with borrowed funds. Corruption is rife. Now the country is bankrupt and will most probably never fully recover.

    Most European countries are somewhere between these two extremes; generally the further north they lie the closer they are to the Swedish model; the further south, closer to the Greek one. For those in the south, how to achieve reforms so as to make the economy more productive, increase work participation and bring expenditure to affordable limits is the big problem. Resistance to reforms, as evidenced most recently in the strikes and riots in France, is fierce from those that wish to hold on to what they have and fear losing it.

    These are the fundamental concerns that will determine whether the European Union survives or goes under. They are the kinds of issues that are prominent in every major capitalist society. America has to face analogous problems due to departure of industries, outsourcing and the influx of illegal migrant labor.

    The backlash from the working class and sections of the middle class is what partly accounts for the popularity of Trump. Trumpery is the direct outcome of the degeneration of American Civilization and the decline of its political culture which is now all pervasive. Another recession would bring the overheated political situation to the boil with very dangerous consequences.

    ET: The most advanced – or civilized – countries in the world have the lowest birthrates. In recent years Germany (along with other beacons of civilization like Japan and Singapore) has had birthrates even lower than China with its draconian one-child policy. Is civilization bad for babies, or is something else at play here?

    HR: The truth of the matter is that high standards of living and female emancipation are responsible for low birth-rates. The more educated women become and the more economically independent, the fewer babies they tend to have. Hence, countries with high birth-rates, such as India, those of the Muslim world and Africa south of the Sahara urgently need to educate and emancipate their women, for otherwise the pressures of population growth will be too much for them to cope with in the long term.

    It is only in highly developed countries, such as Europe, Japan, America, and now also China that low birth-rate is a problem. It is a measure of their productivity and success in managing the Forces of Modernity. It has nothing to do with civilization as such.

    Various solutions will have to be tried in addressing this problem. Immigration from poorer, overpopulated areas was, until recently, the favored option, as this provided cheap labor power. But that is increasingly becoming less of an option, as recent events have demonstrated. Japan has refused to accept mass immigration all along and is taking the technological route to maintaining productivity. Raising the retirement age is another partial solution.

    Lower birthrates might be bad for these countries in the present, but it is good for the world as a whole. Ultimately, the human population cannot just increase without limit; it must sooner or later reach its maximum possible level, and gradually begin to decline.

    ET: As you point out, several European governments have opened their borders and welfare systems to mass immigration, particularly from the Third World. The hope is that they will help pay those burgeoning state bills over time. After a few decades these inflows now account for a sizeable percentage of their populations, and particularly so in the larger cities.

    Some immigrant communities have brought very different cultures with them, and as their numbers grew this created many social tensions within European societies. Responses to this have differed by country, but a general tendency towards “multiculturalism” is now observable throughout much of the Old Continent. Sweden even made it part of its constitution.

    But by definition multiculturalism means the dilution of a nation’s own culture. In fact, liberal Europeans can’t seem to get rid of it fast enough these days. Irrespective of any benefits associated with immigration, is this seemingly unstoppable migration wave and the resulting transformation of Europe’s cultures a symptom or cause of the present demise of Western Civilization?

    HR: To answer the last part of this complex question first, the mass immigration of people, generally from the Muslim world, is neither a symptom nor a cause of the present plight of European civilization. It proceeds in the first place from factors internal to the Muslim world itself; from the failure of the Muslim world to modernize, that is, to introduce and institute the Forces of Modernity in a way that is acceptable to and consonant with their culture. Neither capitalism, nor the rational-legal state, nor science, nor technology functions at all well in Muslim countries, with very few partial exceptions. The inability of these countries to modernize, indeed, the opposition to modernization, has produced all the manifestations of lack of development, instability, corruption and civil war. This, coupled with a high birth rate, generates tens of millions, possibly as many as a hundred million, mainly young people who are eager to migrate to the developed world, and Europe is their nearest and easiest destination.

    Until now, Europe has been willing to accept them for many reasons. The primary reason has been economic; a young workforce of immigrants was desirable when Europe was growing at a rapid rate. The other reasons had more to do with Europe’s post-Second World War adhesion to enlightened values of liberalism, anti-racism, providing refuge for victims of intolerance and ultimately a belief in multiculturalism, namely, in all the respects in which Europe had failed prior to the war.

    The absorption of those who had already arrived over the past half century or so has not proved easy, especially in a climate of economic decline when jobs have become scarce. Apart from these factors, there has been a tendency among many of these new arrivals to settle in ghettoes, where they maintain their own cultural patterns, some of which are at odds with the prevailing host cultures, especially in such matters as the treatment of women. This has led to mutual misunderstanding and resentment. Given satisfactory economic conditions, the readiness of accommodation and compromise on both sides, such problems might in time be overcome. However of late the situation has become critical due to the rise of militant Islam and the resultant civil wars in most Muslim countries. This has generated hordes of refugees and even larger numbers of economic migrants who look to life in Europe as the only chance they will ever have, because they completely despair of their own societies. If Europe continues to practice uncontrolled entry, it will be overrun in no time, with all the adverse consequences of social unrest and illiberal regimes arising.

    The only solution to this staggering global problem is two-fold. On the one hand, Europe will have to bite the bullet and adjust its liberal principles, so as to reduce immigration to numbers it can absorb, as my own country, Australia, has done. On the other hand, Europe will have to tackle the problem at its source – in the Muslim world itself. Pacification, development, a brake on corruption and general enlightenment are the fundamental measures Europe will have to promote and be willing to spend the resources necessary. In the long term, this will prove cheaper than letting the current situation fester.

    ET: America has always been regarded as the great hope for Western Civilization – indeed, even its prime driving force post Second War War. But you argue that “Americanism” is destroying American civilization. What do you mean by this?

    HR: America escaped the civilization-destroying onslaught of totalitarianism that ravaged Europe, Russia, China and other parts of the world. In fact, America profited from the self-inflicted destruction of Europe to emerge as the leading world power in all respects. However, America has not escaped the civilization-reducing propensity of the Forces of Modernity, which it had itself developed and brought to a pitch of perfection.

    Thus, American capitalism has been a tremendous success in terms of production, the generation of wealth and the rise of the standard of living of its own people, as well as all those, such as Europeans, where the American-promoted global market operated. There is no known economic system that leads to greater and more rapid GDP growth than American capitalism. China has had to learn this painful lesson after Mao.

    However, there has been a high cost to pay in cultural and social terms for this tremendous economic success. American capitalism is the goose that lays the golden egg, but in the process it generates plenty of crap that somehow has to be cleaned up. This has been so in America itself, as well as in the rest of the world where American capitalism has operated, eventually almost everywhere after the Second World War.

    Most of the social and cultural problems that America has had to face, especially after the Second World War, can be traced directly or indirectly to its economic success. For example, the social integrity and cultural cohesion of its cities was destroyed by the huge influx of rural migrants when its industries were booming, especially during and after the Second World War. This, in turn, led after the war to the exodus of the middle class from the cities to the burgeoning suburbs, which completely hollowed out city centers. When industries declined, this produced inner-city impoverishment and, even worse, the creation of racial ghettoes. The social problems that these ups and downs of capitalism caused are now all but insuperable.

    Culturally, much damage was done by the huge advertising industry that was a necessary adjunct to mass production. It promoted a hedonistic life-style of envy, exhibitionism, status flaunting and other kinds of behaviors, which were formerly considered vices, or at least bad manners. Thus, the moral fiber of American people was weakened and in extreme cases, such as in respect of the Protestant work ethic, it was corrupted.

    The Culture Industry dispensing mass entertainment and the media in the hands of big moguls, whose only interest was profit and nothing else, also played a role in the stupefaction of the American public. How this was achieved through free-to-air television is something that a number of major studies have demonstrated. Little wonder that the TV set was referred to in common parlance as the idiot box. One could continue this catalogue of adverse consequences of capitalism almost indefinitely.

    This is how “Americanism”, of which capitalism is a most prominent part, is destroying American civilization. One could similarly study other aspects of “Americanism”.

    ET: Like their European counterparts, Americans are also becoming increasingly dependent on the state. US government spending is projected to reach stratospheric levels in the not too distant future driven by primarily by healthcare and social expenditures. Federal debt has doubled in each of the last two administrations, and is now over 100% of GDP. Is this also a symptom of civilizational decay?

    HR: The rise of the federal debt to over 100% of GDP is due to many causes, most of which are a combination of economics and politics, which has little to do with civilizational decay. However, even if these problems were overcome and expenditure reduced to more tolerable levels this may not necessarily matter to civilization, which is largely a cultural issue.

    The main factor driving the federal debt is the diminution of the tax base due to the rapid erosion of American industry, which in the past generated well-paid full-time employment. Now the poor, even when they have work, pay little or no tax. The very rich have also found ways, legal, semi-legal and illegal, of avoiding tax. Hence, the tax burden is being born increasingly by a shrinking middle class. Wholesale tax reform is mandatory, but that cannot be carried through for political reasons. Vested interests of all kinds have a stranglehold on Congress and the major parties are usually in deadlock on this matter.

    It is also the case that social expenditure is growing, because casual jobs and low minimum wages can no longer afford a living for poor people without aid from the state. Healthcare expenditure is also growing, because people live longer and because modern medicine is becoming increasingly more costly.

    I do not believe that all these major difficulties are insoluble, given decisive political leadership. This is, however, lacking at present for reasons that I cannot go into in this context. Hence, though the burden need not be left to future generations to bear, given things are as they are at present, it most probably will be.

    ET: What role do declining education standards play in all this? The US strikingly lags the developed world in academic achievement below the graduate level. And it’s their young who will end up footing the bill for all that government largesse.

    HR: The declining education standards in America are, indeed, both a symptom and a cause of the decline of American Civilization. Before the Second World War, American schools and universities were among the best in the world. They continued to function extremely well for a period after the Second World War. Then the schools began to fail and some decades later, so, too, did the universities.

    The rot in the schools began with the so-called “life adjustment movement” based very loosely on the educational philosophy of Dewey. From then on, for a majority of American youth, schooling became at best a social and not a learning experience. As the social critic, Richard Hofstadter in his book Anti-Intellectualism in American Life, published in 1963, pointed out: what this approach aims to do (and here I quote from memory) is not for students “to become a disciplined part of the world of production and competition, ambition and vocation, creativity and analytic thought, but to teach them the ways of the world of consumption and hobbies, of enjoyment and social compliance – to adapt to the passive and hedonist style summed up by the significant term adjustment”. At the same time, what was taking place in the blackboard jungles of the inner city schools was much worse than that. All this was aggravated by the poor salaries of teachers relative to other professions and the lack of respect for the work they were doing. This made teaching a last resort as a career choice, into which mainly women were pushed.

    In the universities, things did not begin to go bad until the late 1970s. Having poorly prepared students to work with, much of university courses had to be devoted to remedial teaching. The student insurrections of the previous period made university teaching something of a hazardous profession, and teachers naturally preferred to placate students rather than challenge them intellectually. High grades became the norm. The effect of this was felt much more severely in the humanities and social sciences than the natural sciences and the professional faculties. Increasingly fewer students chose to study humanities and social science subjects. Many of these were undermined by the “radical” theoretical fashions and the rise of various kinds of “critical” studies that catered to narrow self-selected groups, made up of those whose mind was closed and no longer open to real critical debate.

    All these deleterious intellectual developments are apart from the sheer economic fact that universities charge increasingly high fees, especially the elite schools, which only the very rich can afford. But the bulk of that extra income is being spent not on teaching and research, but on administrative costs, as students are being provided with all kinds of life-style services, and as the general bureaucratization of the university grows in leaps and bounds. Officials now outnumber professors.

    Nevertheless, the good American universities are still the best in the world. They are attracting the wealthiest, though not necessarily the best students from all over the world. But for how long this situation will continue remains to be seen.

    ET: Technology appears to play a role here as well. For instance social media, instant messaging and all the rest create an environment where we feel we are much less effective and productive. We can only imagine how young students struggle to concentrate on learning anything these days.

    This reminds of how the use of lead in plumbing and all types daily artifacts poisoned many Roman leaders, to the point of where perhaps they completely made the wrong decisions on where their society should be heading. Could technology be the twenty first century equivalent? This might explain some of the seemingly irrational decisions of Western societies of late…

    HR: The parallel you draw between lead plumbing in the Roman world and modern technology is a good one, except that lead poisoning was probably not as prevalent as some of the poisonous effects of some modern technologies. One of the most beneficial technologies in our societies has, indeed been plumbing, largely introduced in the nineteenth century. It is likely that plumbers and sanitation workers have done more for human health and well-being than doctors. This is evident in Third World countries, where the building of drains and toilets should be given higher priority than the building of hospitals.

    In short, some technologies, often very simple ones, have been extraordinarily beneficial. But this is not true of all technologies. Unfortunately, it is very difficult to distinguish between good and bad technologies before they have been introduced. Every technology that is taken up on a large scale serves as a social experiment; it transforms the whole of society in ways that are unpredictable in advance, for it always has unintended consequences either good or bad that cannot be foreseen.

    We have learnt this lesson in nearly every case and even more so with advanced technologies. The introduction of the private motorcar on a mass scale gave people unparalleled freedom of mobility, but it also had all kinds of far from desirable consequences. It polluted the air. It destroyed public transportation. It enabled people to desert the cities, which became hollowed out shells, and so on for countless other effects, among which, moral puritans will argue, was the loss of sexual restraint among the young. How one balances the good and bad consequences is an extremely difficult issue of judgment. But it is now too late to do much about it, as the car is here to stay.

    It is similar, though perhaps even more complex, with the new information technologies. This, too, is a massive social experiment, the results of which might not be known for a few generations. The benefits of computers, the Internet, social media, etc. are obvious and are being touted by all those with a vested interest in the matter: by the computer and software manufacturers, by their advertisers, the media and by state agencies, including by many education authorities who should not have been as eager to embrace these new technologies. This has been going on for nearly a generation. And already some adverse unintended consequences are becoming apparent, especially among children.

    Perhaps the most dangerous of these are changes in brain function starting to appear among children who are heavy computer users. These children and youth are still too young to make any “of the irrational decisions of Western society”, but one day they will be in a position to do so. What future generations of children brought up on computers will do as adults cannot be now predicted. But we should be careful how we handle the social changes which will ensue.

    It is evident even now that computers have not fulfilled their promise in education, for there are strong indications that they have been detrimental to some kinds of learning. If this can be conclusively demonstrated, then the removal of computers from schools, or their restriction to special technical centers might be one drastic move to be contemplated. This is obviously a huge issue, which will continue to be debated for the remainder of this century as more of the long-term effects become apparent.

    ET: Looking at the bigger picture now, so what if Western Civilization is going the way of the dodo? We have had peace and progress over the last five decades. The nefarious Soviet Union was vanquished in the interim. And globalization and technology have brought new opportunities and interactions. Investors seem to believe in that, given that the US stock market is at record highs while global bond yields near record lows. It seems all is good…

    HR: It is true, human life continues regardless of the state of human civilization. It might even be said that life is becoming better and better for greater numbers than ever before. Standards of living are rising and will continue to improve for people in their billions all over the world. The Chinese have lifted themselves out of poverty. Now it is the turn of the Indians, after that there will be others as well. The world is at peace as never before. I am not unduly troubled by the few incidents of terrorism that are so exaggerated by the media, or even by the few sputtering civil wars. So who needs civilization? Isn’t life better off without it?

    Unfortunately, things are not as rosy when we look at the global situation as a whole. Many of the major problems of humanity are no nearer to being solved. The issue of nuclear annihilation still hangs in the balance; we could still destroy ourselves through some political miscalculation or some technical error. A clash of interests between the major powers could still bring on a global war. Our present peace is still precarious.

    Global warming and all the other environmental problems are far from being solved. It is possible they will not be overcome, unless a majority of human beings change their way of life and cease to strive for ever greater levels of affluence and the possession of material goods. A new ethical orientation might be called for, drawing on the values of past civilizations, as adapted to contemporary conditions.

    In brief, human life based on material considerations alone might not be sustainable in the long run. Man does not live by bread alone – not even by bread and circuses in their latest electronic form. Masses of people crammed into huge metropolises that cities are now becoming all over the world is hardly a pleasant prospect to contemplate for the future of humanity. Without civilization we are faced with the kind of brave new world scenario, outlined long ago by Huxley.

    This is the reason we must strive to maintain as much of our various civilizations and their cultures as are still viable. Cultural conservation is as crucial as conservation of Nature. Indeed it is hard to envisage how the one can work without the other, as I have explained in my books.

    ET: If Western Civilization is so important, what are investors missing given how far up asset prices have gone in recent years? Are they just too myopic?

    HR: As far as investors go, it is not Western Civilization as a whole that is important, what is crucial for them is that the minimal norms of international affairs governing economic activity should obtain, above all, the rule of law and the security of contracts, because without that none of their investments are safe. As for human rights, that is important in so far as they do not wish to profit from slave labor or any other grossly exploitative conditions. If they are more ethically minded than that, as they should be, they should also insist that individual rights are implemented before they undertake business dealings in any country. Whether they should also insist on other freedoms is a moot point, unless they wish to be ethical investors and are prepared to forego some profit opportunities.

    ET: What about the unique contributions of Western Civilization to human rights, rule of law, democracy, healthcare and general progress. Can these not be sustained and indeed enhanced with globalization?

    HR: Western Civilization is the one that brought about the present conditions of humanity. It is, therefore the one most responsible for its problems and drawbacks, and the one charged with the task of remedying them. Indeed, it is the only one at present that has the capacity for doing so. The Forces of Modernity – capitalism, the state, science and technology – arose out of Western civilization, and the difficulties for humanity that they have brought about can be best understood and addressed within the context of that civilization.

    An example of this fact is that it is the West that is forging the universal standards, which the whole of humanity can accept, and on the basis of which all civilizations can coexist, regardless of how they differ in other respects. The United Nations and its various agencies, the World Bank and many other such organizations, indeed the whole system of cooperating, as well as peacefully competing states, was the creation of Western Civilization, based primarily on its principles and values.

    These organizations mandate a minimum of norms of international behavior that all states, regardless of their origins, must now accept, if relations between them and even meaningful communication are to be maintained. What this minimum of necessary norms is to be is the subject of interminable disputes. Americans tend to see it in the maximalist terms of their own traditions, as well as their national interests, and press for full democratization, as well as free market liberalism; other nations with other traditions and interests have naturally resisted this. Some basic human rights and the rule of law, no matter how interpreted, seem to be such basic minimal provisions for belonging to the international order. Democracy, healthcare and general progress is perhaps asking too much of many societies, which are unwilling or incapable of entertaining such things. Whether further globalization will alter this is dubious. We see this in the case of China, which has globalized at a rapid rate, but is no nearer to democracy or liberalism in most respects.

    ET: In Part II of our discussion we will look at what is happening in the Chinese, Islamic, Indian and Russian spheres, and how they fit within the aforementioned trends. Anything else you would like to add before we conclude this part of our discussion?

    HR: I would like to stress that my general theoretical analysis of the state of civilization and humanity be distinguished and separated from my detailed diagnosis of specific conditions and problems or my proposals for dealing with them. I stick to my theories, which I believe are correct. I am far less sure of my practical analyses. Someone agreeing with my general point of view might easily offer quite different accounts of things or solutions to problems than the ones that I suggest. I am quite prepared for such disagreements, for theory and practice do not necessarily entail each other.

    Indeed, I welcome debate on the theoretical, practical and evaluative aspects of everything I have said here, or written in my books. I am sure I have made many errors and contravened many other worthy thinkers, present or past and expect that these sins will, in time, be exposed. But this can only happen if my views are subjected to the acid test of stringent criticism. Hence, I hope that it will be said of me, as was once said of another notorious writer: “his sins were scarlet, but his books were read.”

    ET: Thank you very much.

     

  • France Escalates – Sends Aircraft Carrier To Fight ISIS

    Seemingly not satisfied with the domestic blowback from their interventionist-driven Washingtonian foreign policy, Francois Hollande – lagging badly in the polls – has decided to double-down following the recent terror attack in Nice. As Sputnik News reports, France will send artillery to Iraq and its Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier to assist the US-led coalition’s efforts in Syria and Iraq in the coming months.

    The French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle will be sent to the region in September, the President added.

    "The Charles de Gaulle airacrft carrier will arrive in the region by the end of September. It and our Rafale aircraft will allow to intensify our strikes against Islamic State positions in Syria and Iraq," Hollande said in a televised statement.

    France will also send artillery to Iraq in August to help the Iraqi army fight Daesh terrorists, the President added.

    "The Defense Council and I made a decision this morning to provide Iraqi forces with artillery as a part of anti-Daesh efforts. The artillery will be delivered in August," Hollande said.

    However, France "will not deploy ground troops," Hollande said.

    "We support the operations in Syria and Iraq, but will not send our troops. We have advice to give, training to provide, but we will not deploy men on the ground," Hollande stressed.

    The US-led coalition of more than 60 nations, including France, has been carrying out airstrikes in Syria and Iraq since the summer of 2014, with the US alone having recently reached the questionable milestone of dropping 50,000 bombs on ISIS. 

    Do you feel more of less safe?

  • A Collision-Course With Crisis: Making The Wrong Choices For The Wrong Reasons

    Submitted by Adam Taggart via PeakProsperity.com,

    Life is full of examples where folks make bad choices for noble reasons. Not every decision is a winner: sometimes you make the right call, sometimes you don't.

    • In 1962, Decca Records passed on signing a young new band because it thought that guitar-based groups were falling out of favor. That band was The Beatles.
    • Napolean Bonaparte calculated he could conquer Russia by assembling one of the largest invading forces the world has ever seen. He marched towards Moscow in the summer of 1812 with over 650,000 troops. Less than six months later, he retreated in failure, his forces decimated down to a mere 27,000 effective soldiers.
    • 1985 217 separate investors turned down an entrepreneur trying to raise the relatively modest sum of $1.6 million to fund his vision of transforming a daily routine shared by millions around the world. That company? Starbucks.  

    In these cases, those making the decision made what they felt was the best choice given the information available to them at the time. That's completely understandable and defensible. Fate is fickle, and no one is 100% right 100% of the time.

    But what's much harder to condone — and this is the focus of this article — is when people embrace the wrong decision even when they have ample evidence and comprehension that doing so runs counter to their welfare.

    Really? you might be skeptically thinking. Do people really ever do this?

    Yes, sadly. Absolutely they do.

    Because decision-making isn't just based on data. It's also influenced by beliefs. And when our beliefs don't align with the data, we humans can be woefully stubborn against changing our behavior, even in spite of mounting evidence that our beliefs are incorrect and possibly even detrimental to us.

    The fascinating field of behavioral economics is dedicated to studying why people are capable of making bad decisions despite have access to good data (if you've got the time, listen to our past interviews with behavioral economist Dan Ariely here. They're riveting.)

    So, yes, we humans are easily capable of being our own worst enemies.

    For a prime example, let's turn to one of the greatest basketball players of all time.

    The Curious Case Of Wilt Chamberlain's Free Throws

    On a long drive I took recently, I listened to a podcast produced by Malcolm Gladwell, author of The Tipping Point as well as a number of other intellectually enjoyable human interest books.

    Gladwell's podcast tackled this same topic of Why do smart people make dumb decisions?, and it featured Wilt Chamberlain's free throw career to make its point.

    Wilt Chamberlain is widely cited as the best forward to ever play the game of basketball. At 7' 1" and 275 pounds, with a ferocious attitude and athletic grace, he was a dominating force on the court during the 1960-70s. He won seven scoring titles, including the game he is best known for in which he single-handedly scored 100 points — a record that still stands today.

    That record 100-point game is even more interesting than most people realize, Gladwell points out. It's significant not just for the total number of points that Chamberlain scored, but also for the number of free throws that he made during the game: 28. 

    Chamberlain was on fire with his free throws that night. He made 88% of them (28 of 32). That's a very high percentage versus the league average, and amazingly high given Chamberlain's career average of roughly 50%.

    In fact, Chamberlain was widely regarded as a horrible free throw shooter. His overall stats certainly say he was, but this short video clip below does an even better job of hitting home how poorly he typically shot from the line:

    So how did Chamberlain's free throw conversion get so much better?

    To answer that, we need to look at another basketball great…

    Rick Barry & The 'Granny Shot'

    A contemporary of Wilt Chamberlain was Rick Barry, who played much of his career for the Golden State Warriors. Barry was a phenomenal free-throw shooter — at the time he played he was the best in history.

    His career percentage? 90%

    That's over a 15-year pro career. Amazing. (His best year was in 1979 when he completed a freakishly high 94.7% of his shots from the line).

    Why was Barry so successful at free throws? Why was he so much better than Wilt?

    He shot his free throws underhanded.

    Yep, that's right. This 12-time NBA all-star made 'granny shots'.

    Barry approached the free throw as a physics problem, and had a willingness to "do whatever it takes" to improve his accuracy and precision:

    "Physicists have done all kinds of testing and said it's the most efficient way to shoot because there are fewer moving parts. It's so much more natural to shoot this way," he says. "Who walks around with their hands over their head?"

     

    As Barry has often explained, the primary benefits of Granny style are that it increases the likelihood of a straight toss, and it produces a much softer landing on the rim. [Shooting underhand] is also able to generate more backspin, which gives him more breaks on errant throws. 

    Here's a clip of Barry in action:

    He didn't always shoot this way. Barry started as an overhand shooter like everybody else. But when he realized that his completion percentage improved by adopting the underhand toss, he switched over and the rest is NBA history.

    Which brings us back to Chamberlain.

    As a notoriously bad foul-line shooter, Chamberlain was advised to adopt the granny shot. He did, and his free throw percentage soon rose to a career high 61% in 1961-62, the same season as his famous 100-point game. So, the change worked. His stats improved, his team won more games, and his amazing consistency helped him set a single-game scoring record that remains untouchable to this day.

    But then something unexpected happened: Chamberlain stopped shooting underhanded.

    Making The Wrong Choices For The Wrong Reasons

    When Wilt gave up the granny shot, his free throw percentage proceeded to decline, plummeting to a career low of just 38% by the 1967-68 season.

    So, the big question here is: Why? Why would Chamberlain willingly abandon a superior form of shooting, especially when he had already experienced direct personal gain from its benefits?

    The answer goes back to beliefs: he felt "like a sissy" shooting that way.

    Sure, in the early days of the NBA, underhanded foul shots were common. But by the time of Chamberlain's career, pretty much only female basketball players shot that way anymore.

    Given the machismo of professional sports, it's understandable that a star like Wilt cared what the other guys thought of him. But was it important enough to abandon a solution that improved his quality of play so much? After all, isn't the most respected teammate the one who can be counted on to put the most points on the board?

    Gladwell notes that it has been estimated that Chamberlain could have scored over 1,000 additional points in his career had he shot underhand from the foul line throughout.

    In addition to that, he likely would have scored even more points by playing more minutes. Because he was such a poor free thrower, Wilt was often benched in the final minutes of play during close games — as a poor foul shooter is a big liability under those conditions. The opposing team can foul him with confidence that he'll miss his shots and they'll then get possession of the ball.

    Gladwell marvels that somebody so driven to win would deliberately abandon such an easy and advantageous solution as Chamberlain did the granny shot. Even after he had personally experienced its superiority. But he did, thus proving how belief can trump reason.

    Later, in his autobiography Wilt: Larger Than Life, Chamberlain admits that switching back to an overhanded free throw was a clear mistake:

    "I felt silly, like a sissy, shooting underhanded. I know I was wrong. I know some of the best foul shooters in history shot that way. Even now, the best one in the NBA, Rick Barry, shoots underhanded. I just couldn't do it."

    What's amazing is that even though both Rick Barry and Wilt Chamberlain very visibly demonstrated the advantages of the underhanded free throw, half a century later almost nobody — not in the NBA and not in college ball — has adopted it. Think of all the additional points that could have been scored over that time, all the additional minutes played, all the additional team wins. It's not like players haven't had a powerful incentive to consider changing their behavior — these are the very stats their contracts are based on. In great likelihood, many $millions ($billions?) of additional player compensation have been forfeited over the past 50 years simply because the athletes didn't want to look a tiny bit 'girly' at the line.

    Later on in his podcast, Gladwell concludes that Chamberlain — like virtually everbody else in professional basketball — had a high threshold for overcoming conventional opinion. He wasn't comfortable being a maverick when it came to bucking social mores. Rick Barry, on the other hand, clearly had a lower threshold — famously not caring what others thought of him (Barry was widely disliked across the league for his disregard of other's feelings).

    He ends the podcast with this observation:

    I know we've really only been talking about basketball, which is just a game in the end. But the lesson here is much bigger than that. It takes courage to be good, social courage, to be honest with yourself, to do things the right way.

    A Lack Of Courage To Be Good & Honest

    Which brings us back to the point of this article. Chamberlain's willful blindness to the ramifications of his clearly inferior choice is not unique. In fact, when we look at many of the decisions being made by world leaders in recent years, we see a depressing abundance of intentional bad choices.

    Most emblematic of this, in my opinion, are the ZIRP/NIRP interest rate policies the world's central banks are implementing. As discussed many times here at PeakProsperity.com, the endgame of these policies is easy to predict. History is replete with examples of similar attempts of governments attempting to print their way to prosperity. It's simply not possible. As Chris says, if it were, the Romans would have figured it out and today we'd all be speaking Latin.

    The head central bankers are not morons (although a number of them may indeed be ivory tower academics too out-of-touch with the real world). Many of them realize that they have painted themselves into a corner by easing too much for too long, by flooding the world with too much cheap debt-based money. Many understand, perhaps today more than ever, Ludwig von Mises' rule that: 

    "There is no means of avoiding a final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."

    But, like Chamberlain, they do not have the courage to re-evaluate their beliefs and chart an alternative course.

    To 'voluntarily abandon further credit expansion' means letting natural market forces bring down stock, bond and real estate prices from their current bubble highs — thereby vaporizing a lot of paper wealth. It means widespread layoffs as inefficient companies that have been kept alive by nearly free access to nearly unlimited credit have to start actually generating profits if they can. It means living below our means today, so that we can sustainably live within them tomorrow.

    Instead, they simply double down on the policies that got us into this mess in the first place, claiming that their efforts to date just haven't been big enough yet to succeed. And they do this with the full support of our politicians, who want to avoid any unpopular austerity measures because they care much more about getting re-elected than the hard work of actually addressing our nation's structural problems. So interest rates go even lower, asset bubbles grow even higher, the wealth gap extends even wider, and the risks of a "total catastrophe of the currency system" become even more extreme.

    The coming economic/financial/monetary reckoning can't be avoided at this point; only managed. But we can't position ourselves to manage it gracefully if we don't have to courage to even recognize its existence. And our current leaders do not have that courage.

    Which is why we need to ready ourselves, as individuals. Charles Hugh Smith recently penned an excellent report Investing For Crisis which is an essential read for any investor who shares the concern that we will continue to see more wrong choices being made for the wrong reasons — until the entire systems fails. If you haven't read it yet, you really should.

    Click here to read Charles' Investing For Crisis report (free executive summary, enrollment required for full access)

  • "If You Can't Touch It, You Don't Own It"

    Submitted by Jeff Thomas, Writer for Doug Casey’s International Man and Strategic Wealth Preservation, via SprottMoney.com,

    The pending Brexit has, not surprisingly, caused a shakeup in the investment world, particularly in the UK. Of particular note is that, recently, asset management firms in Britain began refusing their clients the right to cash out of their mutual funds. Of the £35 billion invested in such funds, just under £20 billion has been affected.

    For those readers who live in the UK, or are invested in UK mutual funds, this is reason to tremble at the knees.

    So, why have these investors been refused the right to exit the funds? Well, it’s pretty simple. The trouble is that quite a few of them made the request at about the same time. Of course the management firms don’t keep enough money on hand to pay them all off, so, rather than spend all their money paying off as many clients as possible, then going out of business due to a lack of liquidity, they simply announce a freeze on redemptions.

    Those who are outraged may read the fine print of their contracts and find that the fund managers have every right to halt redemptions, should “extraordinary circumstances” occur. Who defines “extraordinary circumstances?” The fund managers.

    Across the pond in the US, investors are reassured by the existence of the Securities and Exchange Commission, which has the power to refuse this power to investment firms…or not, should they feel that a possible run on redemptions might be destructive to the economy.

    Countries differ as to the level of freedom they will allow mutual fund and hedge fund management firms to have on their own, but all of them are likely to err on the side of the protection of the firms rather than the rights of the investor, as the firms will undoubtedly make a good case that a run on funds is unhealthy to the economy.

    The Brexit news has created a downward spike in investor confidence in the UK – one that it will recover from, but, nevertheless, one that has caused investors to have their investment locked up. They can’t get out, no matter how badly they may need the money for other purposes. This fact bears pondering.

    Presently, the UK, EU, US, et al, have created a level of debt that exceeds anything the world has ever seen. Historically, extreme debt always ends in an economic collapse. The odiferous effluvium hasn’t yet hit the fan, but we’re not far off from that eventuality. Therefore, wherever you live and invest, a spike such as the one presently occurring in the UK could result in you being refused redemption. Should there then be a concurrent drop in the market that serves to gut the fund’s investments, you can expect to sit by and watch as the fund heads south, but be unable to exit the fund.

    As stated above, excessive debt results in an economic collapse, which results in a market crash. It’s a time-tested scenario and the last really big one began in 1929, but the present level of debt is far higher than in 1929, so we can anticipate a far bigger crash this time around.

    But the wise investor will, of course diversify, assuring him that, if one investment fails, another will save him. Let’s look at some of the most prominent ones and consider how they might fare, at a time when the economy is teetering in the edge.

    Stocks and Bonds

    Presently, the stock market is in an unprecedented bubble. The market has been artificially propped up by banks and governments and grows shakier by the day. Bonds are in a worse state – the greatest bubble they have ever been in. This bubble is just awaiting a pin. We can’t know when it will arrive, but we can be confident that it’s coming. Rosy today, crisis tomorrow.

     

    Cash on Deposit

    Cyprus taught us in 2013 that a country can allow its banks to simply confiscate (steal) depositors’ funds, should they decide that there is an “emergency situation” – i.e., the bank is in trouble. Unfortunately, the US (in 2010), Canada (in 2013) and the EU (in 2014) have all passed laws allowing banks to decide if they’re “in trouble”. If they so decide, they have a free rein in confiscating your deposit.

     

    Safe Deposit Boxes

    Banks in North America and Europe have begun advising their clients that they cannot store money or jewelry in safe deposit boxes. Some governments have passed legislation requiring those who rent safe deposit boxes to register the location of the box, its number and its contents with the government.

     

    Each year, the storage of valuables in a safe deposit box is becoming more dubious.

     

    Pensions

    Pension plans tend to be heavily invested in stocks and bonds, making them increasingly at risk in a downturn. To make matters worse, some governments have begun to attack pensions. Others, such as the US, have announced plans to force pensions to invest in US Government Treasuries – which, in a major economic downturn could go to zero.

     

    These are amongst the most preferred stores of wealth and are all very much at risk. In addition, there are two choices that, if invested correctly, promise greater safety.

     

    Real Estate

    The Mutual funds in the UK that are presently in trouble are heavily invested in real estate. But real estate that you invest in directly does not face the same risk. However, any real estate that’s located in a country that’s presently preparing for an economic crisis, such as those mentioned above, will be at risk. Real estate in offshore jurisdictions that are not inclined to be at risk is a far better bet. (An additional advantage is that real estate in offshore locations is not even reportable for tax purposes in most countries, because it cannot be expatriated to another country.

     

    Precious Metals

    Precious metals are a highly liquid form of investment. They can be bought and sold quickly and can be shipped anywhere in the world, or traded for metals in another location. Of course, storage facilities in at-risk countries may find themselves at the mercy of their governments. However, private storage facilities exist in Hong Kong, Singapore, the Cayman Islands, Switzerland and other locations that do not come under the control of the EU or US. Precious metals ownership provides greater protection against rapacious governments, but storage must be outside such countries.

    The lesson to take away here is that, if you can’t touch it, you don’t own it. Banks and fund management firms can freeze your wealth, so that you can’t access it. Governments and banks can confiscate your wealth. If you don’t have the power to put your hands on your wealth on demand, you don’t own it.

    This evening, take account of all your deposits and investments and determine what percentage of them you do truly own. If you decide that that percentage is too low for you to accept, you may wish to implement some changes… before others do it for you.

  • "As Long As All The Offensive Shit Is Verbatim, I'm Fine With It"

    Deep inside the treasure trove of smears, collusion, and questionable fund-raising exposed by Wikileaks dump of DNC leaked emails was this little gem of 'innocent propaganda' by the Clinton campaign against the Trump campaign.

    The email – found here- shows DNC staffers’ creating a fake craigslist job posting made for women who wish to apply to jobs at one of Trump’s organizations.

    The fake position, titled a Honey Bunny, requires the prospective applicant to, among other tasks, refrain from gaining weight, be open to public humiliation and be alright with groping or kissing by her boss…

    Multiple Positions (NYC area)

     

    Seeking staff members for multiple positions in a large, New York-based corporation known for its real estate investments, fake universities, steaks, and wine. The boss has very strict standards for female employees, ranging from the women who take lunch orders (must be hot) to the women who oversee multi-million dollar construction projects (must maintain hotness demonstrated at time of hiring). 

     

    Title: Honey Bunch (that’s what the boss will call you)

     

    Job requirements:

     

    * No gaining weight on the job (we’ll take some “before” pictures when you start to use later as evidence)

    * Must be open to public humiliation and open-press workouts if you do gain weight on the job

    * A willingness to evaluate other women’s hotness for the boss’ satisfaction is a plus

    * Should be proficient in lying about age if the boss thinks you’re too old Working mothers not preferred (the boss finds pumping breast milk disgusting, and worries they’re too focused on their children).

     

    About us:

     

    We’re proud to maintain a “fun” and “friendly work environment, where the boss is always available to meet with his employees. Like it or not, he may greet you with a kiss on the lips or grope you under the meeting table.

     

    Interested applicants should send resume, cover letter, and headshot to jobs@trump.com<mailto:jobs@trump.com>

    And when passed up the chain for comms approval, the response was positive…

    "As long as all the offensive shit is verbatim I’m fine with it."

    And just in case readers thought this was from The Onion, here is the original leaked email chain

     

    We are sure donors to Hillary's "victim card" funds will be more than happy to see such stunts being pulled… or is this just another example of how the body politik works nowadays – propaganda tops policy any day.

  • The Market For Lemons, The Market For Bullshit, And The Great Cascading Credence Crash Of 2016

    Submitted by Daniel Cloud

    The Market for Lemons, the Market for Bullshit, and the Great Cascading Credence Crash of 2016

    “The cost of dishonesty, therefore, is not only the amount by which the purchaser is cheated; the cost must also include the loss incurred from driving legitimate business out of existence.”

           George Akerlof, The Market for Lemons

     

    People have begun to worry that we’re experiencing a crisis of confidence in our traditionally most prestigious institutions – in our political parties, and central banks, and great newspapers, and universities, and even in accredited experts.

    Views that would have been regarded as extreme in the past also seem much more common now. The entire political spectrum, all around the world, seems to be in the middle of collapsing into a collection of smaller, more radical groups. Some of them advocate violence.

    The problem doesn’t seem to be unique to this particular historical moment. There are other times in recent history – the 1930’s, perhaps, or the 1960’s – when the public seemed equally unhappy with existing institutional points of view. Like the present, they were periods of relatively rapid change in organizational and communications technology.

    The underlying problem is, I think, a very strange one. But it’s a risk faced by any society that both undergoes rapid technological change, and contains organized interest groups. (Formal or informal.) Something really bad is happening to all our bullshit. In fact, I’ve begun to worry that there’s actually a sort of crash or cascading failure going on in the bullshit market. If there is, I think it’s driven, as previous bullshit crashes were, by changing technology.

    This may seem like an odd thing to worry about. But it’s actually a very natural worry, if you have any interest at all in recent American philosophy and/or the economics of informational externalities.

    Bullshit Defined

    Harry Frankfurt’s On Bullshit i has, for a long time, been the single best-selling title in Princeton University’s Press’s philosophy list. The book sells well partly because people think the title is somehow cute, or funny, but Frankfurt himself doesn’t really seem to think that bullshit is a laughing matter at all. (Take a look at his 2007 YouTube video2, if you want to see if he’s serious about the subject.)

    He argues that lying and bullshit are distinct forms of dishonesty. The liar is trying to present something false as true. But the bullshitter doesn’t actually care whether what he’s saying is true or false, relevant or irrelevant. He represents himself as concerned with the truth, but in fact his only concern is presenting a certain appearance or creating some particular impression in his audience. Frankfurt thinks that this is a much more subtle and powerful strategy, and therefore a much more dangerous one.

    The bullshitter is competing with those around him to seem a certain way, or he’s competing with them to avoid seeming a certain way. Or perhaps he wants to make someone else seem some way, or make some proposal seem some way, seem noble or contemptible, dangerous or safe. Or he wants to fit in, or stand out, or be admired, or pitied, or feared, or promoted. The truths he speaks in the course of his effort to achieve these things may be completely irrelevant to the point he’s supposedly trying to make. But unlike the liar, the bullshit artist doesn’t actually have to say anything false to mislead. He might, but he also might not, he might just talk about a lot of irrelevant true stuff. (Machiavelli tells us that a Prince should almost never lie…)

    This is a way of deceiving that’s much safer for the deceiver than outright lying. A lie can be destroyed by a single incongruous truth. It’s much harder for a single fact to pierce the veil of bullshit, because it’s more difficult for a single fact to dispositively establish that some set of considerations is irrelevant, or that their importance is being exaggerated. Humans are instinctively angry at the liar, but the bullshit artist slides right past our evolved defenses. Frankfurt thinks this is a much more powerful and subtle strategy than lying, and therefore a more dangerous one.

    In fact, it seems to me that one of the ways we can tell that someone is basically a bullshit artist is that it never really happens to the person that they argued for something, and then, to their surprise and dismay, found out that they were wrong about the facts and had to permanently change their views. That just isn’t a thing, in their world. The bullshitter’s very rare and grudging public mea culpa is always only tactical. When your argument isn’t actually based on the trueness of certain facts in the first place, no pattern of facts can possibly dislodge you from it in any lasting way. As Frankfurt says, the bullshit artist has a kind of freedom and a kind of safety that the liar can only dream of.

    Is Bullshit Necessary, or Inevitable?

    Presumably the idea of a crash in the bullshit market wouldn’t actually worry Frankfurt himself very much. In his most recent statements on the topic (in his recent Vimeo video iii) he seems convinced that bullshit is unnecessary, that a world without bullshit would be a better one. But he hasn’t always seemed so sure; in the earlier YouTube video, he was still wondering whether bullshit might perhaps be of some use to society.

    (The contrast between the two videos I’ve mentioned is interesting, in itself, as a sign of where we’re all headed, of how things are developing at the moment. The 2007 YouTube video has clunky production values and a crystal-clear message. But the much more recent one on Vimeo… Well, let’s just say that the producers seem to have been worried that in 2016, a man sitting in a chair telling the truth simply isn’t enough.)

    Is bullshit, defined as Frankfurt’s defined it, something that we can ever really expect to be completely free of? Personally I doubt it. For one thing, some of it strikes me as genuinely useful. The policeman directing traffic in his spiffy uniform is doing his very best to present a somewhat false appearance of gleaming perfection, because a ragged naked man presenting the same truths about where it would be convenient for cars to go would be ignored. He may even wear a hat designed to make him look taller and more imposing than he actually is. He isn’t trying to look tall because he’s vain. Yes, the whole thing is an act, but in this case it’s a necessary act. Because of the nature of the social role that’s been delegated to him, because we all want him to send a certain clear, authoritative and unambiguous signal iv, we excuse and approve of these conventional, socially necessary, legitimate forms of bullshit.

    No doubt the line between these things and the more egregious or harmful forms of bullshit is a very complex and deceptive one, with one form often disguised as the other. (Perhaps this particular policeman actually is a little vain. Maybe his hat is custom-made, and is a little taller than a regular policeman’s hat. Or maybe he takes bribes to let some cars through the intersection more quickly.)

    Anyway, empirically, there don’t seem to be any large complex human societies without any bullshit. To completely get rid of it, you’d have to read everyone’s mind at all times, which seems undesirable. So I can’t quite agree with Frankfurt’s more recent opinion that we’d all be better off without any bullshit at all. It seems to me that human society would collapse into a collection of small warring tribes. (Just as traffic at the intersection might grind to a halt without the spiffy policeman.) As far as I can tell, that’s how we lived before we invented bullshit. No chimpanzee is a bullshit artist – or any other kind of artist.

    Like it or not, we have it now, and I find it impossible to imagine a practical plan for completely eliminating it. If we really can’t get rid of it, then I can’t agree that the relevant question is what life would be like without it. That seems utopian. Bullshit exists; it’s doing something in our society. It has effects on us. The real question, I think, is whether there can be better or worse effects. Is some bullshit more damaging than the rest? Are fairly standard forms of timeworn bullshit perhaps a bit like the suite of benign microbes that live in our guts? Is existing, harmless bullshit protecting us from novel, possibly dangerous bullshit? (As the analogies of the 1930’s and the Reformation might suggest…) Can anything really go wrong with the market for bullshit? Are there any public dangers associated with this large-scale, apparently rather consequential social phenomenon, do we need to manage it somehow?

    Bullshit and Informational Externalities

    As for the economics of informational externalities… Frankfurt’s philosophical clarification of the meaning of the ordinary English word “bullshit” strikes me as capable of driving an economic model because he suggests that we’re most likely to come up with bullshit when it’s difficult for us to speak the truth. For example, when we’re expected to have a strong opinion about a matter on which we have no expertise. From an economic point of view, this is a theory about how people cope with the potential costs of information gathering.

    We all constantly encounter subjects we know very little about. Most conversations about politics are like this. Discussions between people who know rather little about the particular problems they’re discussing, problems they personally won’t be expected to directly do anything about. It could hardly be otherwise in a democracy, since everyone’s asked to vote on whole political programs containing prescriptions for dealing with various different societal problems.

    The reward for carefully ascertaining and then impartially telling the unadorned and directly relevant truth in many of these ordinary, inconsequential conversations is small. There might be public benefits. But public knowledge of the truth is a public good. We, personally, will only receive one seven billionth of those benefits, while the entire cost of carefully gathering the information and presenting to people who may not be all that interested in it will fall on us. The temptations to slack off and pursue other social goals which these situations present may be resisted by a few, but those are rare and sometimes unpopular individuals.

    Perhaps we all have a threshold. When we know less than x about some subject, we all struggle against a temptation to employ bullshit in discussing it, to just agree with the people around us to be agreeable, or use the incident as an excuse to point out how stupid the hated out-group is, or try to come up with a funny or enraging fairy-tale about what the truth must be, or to complain plaintively about how nobody really cares, or something like that. Making up bullshit is easier than finding the truth about every abstruse subject, so wherever ease or mere courtesy are the most practically relevant considerations, we can expect almost everyone to face a temptation to repeat or invent bullshit. In a sort of conversational version of Gresham’s law, bullshit should drive out honesty wherever there are no consequences for the individual.

    But the true bullshit artist produces bullshit egregiously, even in contexts where it’s not conventional or acceptable. He represents himself as sincerely concerned with the truth in situations where he really should be, but he’s not. He isn’t just occasionally tempted to make careless and insincere pronouncements on unimportant-seeming subjects he knows nothing about. He’s turned doing that into his thing, into a complex art form. He persistently insists that his bullshit is reality, and that the actual truth is just a bunch of bullshit.

    He may even get angry when this assertion is questioned. Often the anger is sincere; he thinks it’s unfair for you to question his facts, because his argument was never based on facts, the facts were just added to support an existing point of view. They’re basically decorations, so by attacking them you’re not really invalidating his conversation goal, as far as he’s concerned. You’re just getting in the way. Like an idiot, like some fool who thinks the conversational contest is about what the facts are. Not, as he believes it to be, about whose bullshit will prevail in the eyes of the audience. Presumably he has no idea that the questioner is doing anything that’s different from what he himself is doing…

    It seems to me that in some sense this person is a polar opposite or mirror image of Hayek’s “man on the spot” v or Kenneth Arrow’s benevolent specialist vi, In both these cases, the expert creates positive informational externalities for society by knowing all about some obscure thing, and sharing the information in various ways. Either through the price system, for Hayek, or by broadcasting the information, by publishing it in a journal, for Arrow. I also like to tell a story vii  that involves a kind of person, the entrepreneur, who generates positive informational externalities for society by personally taking the risk of performing an experiment that may fail, of starting a firm and possibly going bankrupt.

    But the bullshit artist doesn’t perform any experiments, and he doesn’t know all about some obscure thing. Or if he does, he doesn’t actually just stick to telling the plain unadorned truth about that thing, or about how those experiments came out.  He’s surrendered completely to the natural human urge to have a strong opinion on every subject, even ones he’s not in a very good position to discover the truth about. He hasn’t bothered to take the risks he’d need to take, or go to the trouble he’d need to go to, do the hard work he’d need to do, to engage in the self-criticism and he’d have to engage in, to find out the truth about them. Because he doesn’t really care that much about what’s true.

    Since bullshit is free from the constraints of honesty, it can be perfectly designed to attract attention and elicit belief. (Whereas the actual full truth is usually abstruse and implausible.) From the point of view of cultural evolution, it’s a parasitic mimic, like a cuckoo. Like a cuckoo chick, it has to be more dazzling than the real thing in order to displace it.

    Nevertheless, the bullshit artist may generate either positive or negative informational externalities, because even he will speak the truth if it suits his ulterior purpose.

    The Market for Lemons

    But before I say anything more about all that, I need to quickly describe George Akerlof’s model of the used car market viii That will put me in a much better position to explain why I’m now starting to worry about cascading failure in the “bullshit market”.

    Akerlof was interested in the potential of informational asymmetries, in general, to produce market failure. (So it’s easy to see why his model might be relevant to the market for bullshit, which by its very nature exists entirely within the precarious and shifting world of asymmetries in information.) The basic idea behind his model is quite simple. Suppose that, when buying a new car, people have an imperfect ability to determine whether the car is a lemon. (For the sake of the example, either quality control is very bad, or else little information on safety, reliability, etc. is available in advance of purchases, or the people simply have imperfect judgment. The model is from a time when it was more plausible that not much information about car quality might be available.) But once they’ve owned a car for a little while, they begin to have a pretty clear idea of its quality.

    People who have a car that they now know is worth more than the prevailing market price for a used car will keep their car off the market. But people who have a car that they now know is worth less than the prevailing market price for a used car would be happy to sell theirs for the prevailing market price. So the used car buyer will have to choose his car from a pool of used cars the very best of which are worth a shade less than the prevailing market price, and the worst of which are worth much less than the prevailing market price.

    In the case of completely asymmetric information – if the seller always knows just exactly how bad the lemon is, but the buyer can’t ever tell the difference between it and any other car – the average buyer will end up with a car drawn from the middle of this distribution. But that means the average person will get a car that’s worth a lot less than he paid for it. Once this becomes generally known, it’s hard to see why the buyers wouldn’t refuse to buy used cars for any price higher than this average value.

    If the price is adjusted down to this new level, however, everyone with a car that’s worth more than the new price will withdraw their car from the market. So the average quality of the cars available at that price will be even lower. Once this becomes generally known, it’s hard to see why the buyers wouldn’t refuse to buy cars for any price higher than the new, lower, average value.

    Once the price has been adjusted down to the new new level, however, everyone with a car that’s worth more than the new new price will withdraw their car from the market…

    By a cascading series of steps like that, the used car market can fail, as a result of the informational asymmetry between buyer and seller. Although at each step there were some sellers willing to sell cars for only a little more than they were worth, and some buyers genuinely willing to pay slightly over fair value to avoid the expense of buying a new car, in the end the equilibrium is zero transactions. 

    If some institution or institutions existed to help the buyer determine the actual value of the used car more precisely, or if the people themselves developed a method of detecting lemons, they could meet and transact. So getting rid of the informational asymmetry would remove the market failure. But Akerlof worried that the rating agency would be unreliable, that whoever provided the public information about car quality would be tempted to issue bullshit instead, to use the resulting power to muddy the water in some self-serving way…

    The Market For Bullshit

    Okay, so now we’re back to bullshit, though now we’re coming at it from a slightly different angle. But what exactly is the analogy I’m pushing here actually supposed to be? What actually makes the market for bullshit a “market” in the first place? Is that supposed to be some kind of metaphor?

    I don’t think it is just a metaphor. At the same time, the phrase is slightly misleading, in precisely the same way as the phrase “the market for lemons”. Of course, the market for bullshit is parasitic on the market for sincere attempts to tell the truth. Why? Because bullshit derives most of its value from the fact that not everyone can always tell the difference between these two things. Strictly speaking, the market for bullshit is no more separable from the market for putative public truths in general than Akerlof’s “market for lemons”, for used cars not really worth the price they’re being offered for, is from the market for used cars in general. It’s one segment of the market for putative truths, in the same way the market for lemons is one segment of the market for used cars. The segment, in both cases, includes all and only those items that are worth less than they’re presented as being worth. (Or at least, in the case of bullshit, where the seller hasn’t exercised nearly enough diligence to really know that they’re worth as much as he’s presenting them as being worth.)

    Every issuance of egregious bullshit that’s at all consequential is, in fact, an exchange, involving at least two parties. There are people who produce egregious bullshit, often for a living, and there are people who buy it, and hold onto it until and unless they see through it. The producers are paid by the consumers, not with a permanent transfer of the scarce commodity, credence, but with a conditional loan that can be recalled at will. The unique and distinctive transaction in this market is the temporary exchange of egregious bullshit for credence.  Sooner or later, this credence may be repossessed by the credulous person, when the bullshit becomes discredited in his eyes. (When and if the bullshit artist’s ulterior motives become too readily apparent, or crucial facts turn out to be too obviously false, or the emotional impact simply fades.)

    So really it’s a commodity market, because while some truths remain true forever, bullshit gets used up over time, like gasoline, or sugar, meaning new bullshit must constantly be produced.

    The objective of each established vendor of bullshit is to get the customer to constantly roll over his credence to a new story from the same source, instead of repossessing it and looking for another vendor. But if the perceived credibility of the pool of existing vendors, in aggregate, declines, for some reason, new vendors with equally low quality bullshit who were shut out of the market before will become able to enter and compete.

    Every time a prestigious institution or a prestigious public official lowers a standard somehow to compete in the market for putative pieces of public information, whether in an internal or an external struggle, every time we see egregious bullshit from an unexpected source, some players outside the Establishment lose their tinfoil hats. Every time a prestigious news source uses an invidious headline or elides a crucial fact, other, less trusted sources of information suddenly seem more credible. Disenchanted television viewers move from the news networks to the Daily Show, opining that there’s no difference except the entertainment value. But once they have, they’re just as likely to wander on over to the Onion, even though they might never have thought of that as an alternative to CNN or the Washington Post before the move.

    That means this market has an odd and dangerous feature, one that makes it similar to the market for lemons. As exchange value – price, in the case of used cars, and credence, in the case of bullshit – goes down, average quality should also get worse.

    (Not that the Onion itself isn’t good. It’s just that in a world where the Onion is as reliable as hard news sources, consensus reality does not exist.)

    The admission of new, marginal sources to the pool of semi-credible public information is one obvious reason for this decline in quality. But there’s another problem, one that can, I think, drive human societies into surprisingly dark places. To be really interesting, the new bullshit must be fresh, which means it must somehow differ from existing, less exotic bullshit. But the low-hanging fruit has already been taken. The most salient and crucial truths will already be employed, in some existing item or tradition of bullshit, and can’t be repeated in any interesting and engaging way. Each additional marginal piece of bullshit must be either less directly relevant, or more contaminated with falsehood, or both, to succeed in being unique. To compete for the attention and credence of a fixed number of humans, it should also be gaudier than its predecessors. It should be more extreme, more bizarre or more shocking or more pleasing or moving or nobler or more wrathful or terrifying or self-mutilating or funnier, in order to still be noticeable in the more crowded field. Existing sources of public information, however credible, may also have to participate in this race to the bottom, if they’re going to retain viewers or readers. So the average quality of their output is likely to decline along with everyone else’s. That makes the information asymmetry a lot worse, because now even trusted sources may be forced to peddle egregious and exotic bullshit. Akerlof’s model of the market for lemons suggests that it should be possible, in theory, for this intensification of the informational asymmetry to cause cascading failure all by itself.

    Unfortunately, this market also has another strange feature, one that makes it even more fragile. Removing tinfoil hats affects volume as well as quality. In the face of increased competition, existing issuers also have to try even harder to catch the public’s increasingly fragmented attention, and are likely to increase the volume of putative information they put out. So as “price” (average number of people convinced and mean duration of the conviction produced by the typical piece of bullshit) goes down, the aggregate quantity of bullshit being produced should actually increase in response. The price elasticity of the bullshit supply curve is negative.

    But that means that the quantity increases if the quality declines. And we already knew that the quality declines if the quantity increases. So if the quality declines, the quantity increases. And if the quantity increases, then the quality declines. But if the quality declines, the quantity should increase again. And if the quantity increases again, the quality should decline again… Which is cascading failure, in the same kind of jerky series of successive steps down that Akerlof described for the used car market.

    If the public can’t tell the difference between good and bad sources of information, if they suddenly or gradually lose that ability somehow, the market for public information becomes vulnerable to this sort of failure. Because the average source may then in fact become much worse, much less honest, than they’re used to supposing. Is forced to do that, in order to compete, by the public’s very confusion. And things can continue to cascade down from there. So the equilibrium outcome can be zero transactions. Zero credence being lent. Nobody really believing anything anyone says in public.

    Even though there are some sources of information that are still almost as valuable as they claim to be, and some consumers of information who would still benefit from lending credence to them, the informational asymmetry would, in a world like that, make it impossible for these people to find each other, so nobody would end up lending much credence to anything said in public. In that world, the public would take rumors, and lies, and conspiracy theories just as seriously as official pronouncements from formerly credible sources.

    The First Consequence of the Technological Shock: Too Much Information

    Now that we have this supposed analogy on the table, what’s the exogenous technological shock supposed to be? Why might the combined market for bullshit and sincere attempts to tell the truth in public be crashing, again, right at this moment? What is it about all our tweeting, and Facebooking, and Googling, and emailing, and chatting, and constantly talking on the phone, and instant messaging, and posting of ominous videos on Vimeo, and tinderizing, and dressing up as plush toys, and organizing two-day conferences about Derrida’s influence on the Ninja Turtles action figures, and writing things for Zero Hedge, that could possibly cause a similar problem?

    Obviously, an enormous amount of new, very low-quality information has become publicly available to everyone. (Along with a very large but still smaller amount of new, very high-quality information, the problem being that we haven’t yet really collectively learned how to tell the difference in the new environment.) It seems to me that the consequence is that the persuasive value of the average piece of bullshit is collapsing. This is happening because the supply is increasing greatly, while fewer people attach less lasting credence to each piece. This affects our faith in existing institutions partly because they’re what’s available for people to lose faith in, because you can only lose the illusions you already had.

    As the increasing public supply of bullshit becomes more and more discredited, it drags the credibility of all sources of public information down – especially since some of the new bullshit is coming from the same institutions the more credible information already comes from.

    Information can be endlessly, costlessly replicated, so simply making some information more salient and more available counts as an increase in the supply of that particular information. As every part of every legacy institution becomes better and better at making itself transparent, the overall picture of the institution as a whole that we can get from outside becomes much more detailed. But this explosion of available details confuses the brand, because we no longer only see the greatest achievements and most serious messages. We still see those, but now we see everything else as well, and the average thing we see is less impressive.

    Each member of the Fed’s board always had their own opinions, but now technology has put them in a position to constantly tell us all about them, and us in a position to dig down into all the inevitable disagreements and uncertainties. Seeing the complexities that were always there more clearly makes the message much harder to interpret, and decreases its authority. In something like the same way seeing what’s actually been under the uniform of the traffic cop all along might diminish his authority in our eyes.

    The Fed, in particular, is and really has to be in the business of fooling everyone, at least if they’re going to go on being Keynesians rather than straight neo-classical rational choice theorists, because Keynesian monetary stimulus relies on the creation of illusions for its effectiveness. Every producer is supposed to be under the illusion that it’s only the price of their own product that’s going up, in response to the stimulus, while the prices of their inputs are going to remain unchanged. That’s what makes them increase production – the illusion that doing so has become more profitable. If nobody was fooled, if everyone realized that all prices would eventually go up in response to the monetary stimulus, they would simply adjust their own prices, immediately, without increasing production at all. 

    So the Keynesian central banker is supposed to be a kind of magician, who manipulates the public into doing what he sees as the right thing by creating illusions, using a printing press. But a magician can’t really show you everything he’s doing to fool you, as he’s doing the trick, and still expect you to be fooled by it. That would be a good way of teaching you to do the trick yourself. But as a way of doing a magic trick that’s supposed to actually deceive the audience and make them take some ill-considered action, it makes exactly no sense at all.

    The odd thing is that the prestigious institution often still seems to suppose that the front of the house still represents it to the public, that we basically all get our information about it from the occasional very formal and uninformative news conference for the old media by the head chef. But now all the diners can also see everything going on in the kitchen, which naturally gives them a completely different perspective on what sort of place the restaurant is. The chef’s formal description has turned into an empty ritual, a place food critics go to show off their own particular brands of bullshit in front of an audience.

    The contrast with the new, more complex and transparent background makes any traditional form of bullshit that might be conventional in communicating with the old media at press conferences seem more antiquated and unreasonable. So traditional ways of preserving public credibility can now actually have the effect of diminishing it, under the new technological circumstances. Refusing to comment in public on matters you’ve already shared your opinion about in less formal settings, that sort of thing. The problem is that the contrast between official pronouncements and actual beliefs is now just too obvious, too visible, too sharp. Even though the actors were never actually trying all that hard to conceal the contrast in the past. They just relied, unconsciously, on the whole picture being a little more murky, to outsiders, than it presently is. Clarified, it seems to convey a certain amount of contempt for the audience’s ability to reason, to connect the dots in the dot plots… (It’s as if we cleaned up the Mona Lisa a little, and it turned out she’d been giving us the finger all along.)

    From the outside, we now see a confusing multiverse of different Harvards, with no consistent story coming from anywhere about which ones matter most, or which one is the real Harvard. The university itself may not have changed very much, it was always a big complicated place, but the partial panopticon it lives in has become much more elaborate. We outsiders all can see much more about more different parts of it, if we choose to. That makes it potentially much more confusing to the outside world, which now can’t tell whether they should think of it as primarily consisting of the parts they like, or the ones they find unappealing.

    Complex human complex societies are always built around limiting the information people have to know about each other to a manageable level. In a group of more than a few thousand people, what there actually is to be known exceeds our individual capacity for assimilating and dealing with the knowledge. We aren’t gods, or angels. We’re just people. Now that necessary blurring has been interfered with, by the new technology, and we can’t help staring at what was always underneath the blur. At what an angel would see, at what, in some cases, only an angel could fully accept.

    So just the new technologies, all by themselves, are capable of making the credibility, plausibility, and comprehensibility of the average piece of public information from existing institutions decline, as far as the observer is concerned, even if those institutions don’t change at all. Even organizations which aren’t even occasionally in the business of producing any kind of bullshit (if there are any) can’t avoid having their credibility affected by this technologically driven tendency towards a confusing kind of transparency.

    A Second Consequence of the Technological Shock: Coming Up With New, More Extreme Forms of Bullshit

    But it’s also true that most large institutions contain many groups of people doing various different things. Inevitably, for a variety of reasons, some of those groups are more focused on publicly stating the exact truth as they understand it than others. Some people have searched diligently for genuinely important truths for a long time, with great skill. Occasionally they succeed in finding one. The advent of new organizational technology – computers and the things they’ve led to – helps these people. But there are only so many who can and will do the lonely, difficult, sometimes boring work, and actually finding significant new truths is very hard.

    Coming up with new forms of bullshit, and organizing new communities of bullshit artists around them, seems to be much easier. Entrepreneurial people associated with existing political parties, newspapers, interest groups, universities, or other prestigious institutions have considerable organizational advantages in the struggle to keep up with the depreciating value of bullshit, and may be responsible for a large fraction of the increased supply. New organized interest groups must grow up around existing institutions like vines, whenever organization and communication get easier and cheaper. Naturally each has its own preferred line of bullshit.

    In fact, the existence of organized interest groups, sources of economic and political rents, and other subsidies for particular signals means that the tendency for the credibility of public speech to decline under some technological circumstances can be accelerated in surprising ways by the social results of competition for access to the subsidies. Their existence can lead to a competition for unfakeable displays of commitment to the cause ix. Over time, this can result in behavior that seems quite strange to outsiders, as each would-be beneficiary tries to outdo the most recent effort of some rival. The result of this ratchet is a world where people often seem to decide what to think and do by asking themselves what would be most implausible belief and the most counterproductive behavior. As both organization and communication have become easier and cheaper with the new technologies, our ability to mount impressive and highly visible displays of this kind has improved as well.

    Perhaps the most extreme example of all this, at the moment, is the group of zealots in Raqqa. They’ve been very successful in attracting both followers and contributions in this very way, by undertaking insanely counterproductive, disgusting, and shocking displays of takfiri commitment. But the phenomenon is a far more widespread one, because this is, in fact, a basic human impulse, something our ancestors have been doing for a very long time in a huge variety of different ways, some splendid and some horrifying. The specific content of the subsidized signal – whether it’s flower arrangement, some particular form of social justice, or suicide bombing – matters enormously, but the competition to display some very refined and demanding or very arbitrary or very twisted conception of virtue or capability is always the same.

    This tendency to produce exaggerated forms of bullshit, as an evolved part of human nature, is, I suspect, at least partly a tool for achieving what Max Weberx called “closure”, a way for an in-group to acquire permanent ownership of a source of economic rents. People already immersed in the local brand of bullshit already know exactly what to say to please their audience. Often that includes some extremely odd things, some things the community has allowed itself to become concerned with, over time, by some progressive process of cultural evolution that seemed perfectly reasonable to them at each little step. By these gradual processes, the group can arrive at a set of preferences that would strike any outsider as strange and exotic in somewhat the same way some very unusual breeds of dog or cat or goldfish do. These exotic and arbitrary preferences act as a semi-permeable barrier to entry. You only get in to the subsidized group if you drink the cool-aid, if you become really good at exhibiting the exotic preferences in acceptable ways. Which limits access to the source of rent to friends and willing henchmen.

    This sort of competition for access to a subsidy can force competing bullshit artists to come up with more and more extreme, impressive, and (to the uninitiated) unpalatable versions of the particular forms of bullshit that are customary in their moral community. As the competition for prestige becomes more intense, what counts as an impressive signal of commitment to the subsidized set of beliefs can become much more extreme, leading in the end to forms of priest-craft that may seem very strange to any uninitiated person. Technological change, new ways of organizing and communicating, can greatly enhance the effectiveness of this sort of competitive display, as it has for the zealots in Raqqa. So as the exogenous technological shock hits, the exotic in-group behavior may become even more extreme.

    At the same time, a general increase in transparency has the effect of making all these weird little social worlds much more visible from the outside, contributing to the public sense that the other people whose social behavior they’re observing clearly for the first time have all gone completely nuts. In a world that’s apparently gone crazy, even crazy analyses may seem credible.

    All of these same processes can take place inside of existing institutions as well, as new organized interest groups with their own new forms of bullshit spring up under the newly favorable technological circumstances like mushrooms after a rain. Sometimes this can apparently be quite paralyzing. Various political parties in different places around the world have already visibly begun to experience interesting new forms of internal fragmentation and competition. Certainly there are fascinating things happening inside both large American political parties.

    A Third Consequence of the Technological Shock: More Rapid Turnover of Egregious Bullshit

    For both of these reasons, the passive one and the active one, the initial effect of the new technology should be a decline in the average perceived credibility of existing institutions’ output of putative pieces of public information, along with an increase in its perceived quantity. A Democrat is now more likely to publicly say or write that the DNC, and a Republican that the RNC, is terrible. And we’re also more likely to hear about it. Having heard these things, we’re now less likely to accept anything either party says. If even they say they’re terrible…

    (Presumably the initial impact of any large technological change is always partly just disorganization, because at the beginning the society is bound to be set up all wrong, given the possibilities inherent in the new technology. The pattern is as old as Ugarit. Invent the first alphabetic writing system and the use of gold as money… and watch your whole civilization collapse, as it tries to cope with the social results. Once you notice it, this pattern appears in history again and again. Improvement may only come much later, if at all, as a result of some sort of eventual Darwinian winnowing process.)

    At the same time, as Daniel Dennett has pointed out recently with respect to public falsehood in general x, xi, we’ve recently become collectively much better both at detecting all kinds of dishonesty, and at informing each other that we all know everyone else has also detected it.

    In the Politics, Aristotle points out that in the end, the public tends to have sound judgment about what’s really a great work of art, even though individually many of its members may lack perfect taste. Each person still may be able to spot some particular flaw, so all together they constitute a reliable filter. The sound evaluations reinforce each other, while each idiosyncratic error of judgment is likely to be different. So over very long periods of time, the public standard of taste is more reliable and refined than that of any one individual.

    The same thing applies to public bullshit. Over time, at least outside of subsidized in-groups, all but the very finest examples of bullshit are eventually detected and persuasively rejected by someone in the crowd. Sooner or later, someone successfully points out that the Emperor isn’t wearing any clothes. The motive or gimmick becomes obvious to everyone, and the dishonesty becomes transparent.

    The Internet has dramatically amplified this oracular collective capability, because more eyeballs are now seeing each potential piece of bullshit with greater clarity, sooner. The people behind the eyeballs now find it much easier to communicate their skepticism to each other. So we reject dishonesty much more quickly and with better accuracy. Common “knowledge” of both truths and untruths, making it known to all that everyone knows that everyone supposedly knows something, has, as Dennett points out, become both much easier to produce, and much easier to destroy.

    Bullshit Inflation and Market Failure

    With a vastly increased supply, lower average quality, and much less public willingness to hold on to each piece, the value of the average putative item of public information seems to be crashing now in more or less the same way the value of a unit of currency crashes during a hyperinflation. In that case, the problem is also that the supply of something – money – explodes just as public willingness to hold onto it for very long is collapsing. The credibility of each individual piece of bullshit, the number of people it will persuade for how many hours in total, is, I suspect, now in steep decline. What’s pretty easy to see is that bullshit just simply doesn’t stick for very long any more, that a semi-bullshit explanation that’s believed by the public may now only settle them down or rile them up for a few days or a few weeks, not for months or years as it once might have.

    What’s a little harder to observe, unless you habitually wander into a lot of places people in your own little social world don’t go much, is the fact that that this more rapid churning is happening in parallel in more and more different and divergent arenas. So during the much shorter half-life of each piece of bullshit it probably convinces many fewer people at any one time. As its value collapses and its quality declines, more and more must be issued to accomplish the same persuasive tasks.

    In the end, no amount of bullshit may be enough. It may become impossible for anyone to persuade very much of the public of anything, even the truth. Akerlof’s model of the used car market suggests that in an extreme scenario, the market for public information, for putative attempts to tell the truth in public, as a whole might eventually fail under the new pressure.

    The problem with this kind of crash in the bullshit market would be that it would have the unfortunate effect of making genuinely reliable sources of public information no more credible than any entrepreneur with a completely novel and untested form of bullshit. A simple, clear, and emotionally appealing plan, concocted without reference to its actual possibility or efficacy. When nobody is the least little bit credible, anybody at all is just as credible as anyone else. That can be a surprisingly bad outcome for the whole society – if “anybody at all” happens to include Adolf Hitler.

    Keeping civilization going is hard, not easy. This is the fundamental fact we seem most inclined to forget. Human history shows that there are more potential recipes for societal disaster, more ways of not having the things we have now, than paths to societal success. Agonizing failure is genuinely possible. History is full of failed experiments. So a frantic bullshit free-for-all of the kind Germany had in 1920’s and the 1930’s seems like a rather frightening outcome. But a possible one. Or look what happened when the printing press was invented. Suddenly everyone was an authority on scripture. It was fun… at first. But the path from Erasmus to the Battle of White Mountain is surprisingly straight.

    At the same time, there was a lot of bullshit around in the 1920’s, and the 1950’s – all the horrible bullshit associated with segregation and numerous other unjust deprivations of basic human rights – that we’re all much better off without. In the very long term, getting rid of bullshit is usually a very good thing. There are probably some similar pieces of horrible bullshit in our world, things our descendants will wish we could have rejected sooner. The problem is basically just that the transition from there to here involved all kinds of untoward and surprising events. Good news in the long term can sometimes be surprisingly bad news in the short or medium term.

    We assume that seeing far more of each other’s lives than we’ve ever seen before will leave our social and political system pretty much undisturbed. Because on some level we think we’re still living in the television age. But actually the particular design of the partial panopticon we all live in, which only allows certain acts of certain people to be seen by certain other people some of the time, is central to society’s functioning on a day-to-day basis. We aren’t used to having this much extreme bullshit directed towards us this persistently. We aren’t used to actually seeing a man’s head sawed off with a serrated knife. As part of a sort of gruesome political advertisement for an expensive form of madness, directed at least partly at those few scattered people who might be driven over the edge by it, and commit similar acts.

    We aren’t used to knowing this much about what the people who run the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal are actually talking about, with each other, behind the scenes. We aren’t used to having the magician describe every trick in detail for us, as he’s actually doing it.

    Eventually we’ll learn ways to shut most of the information out again, to stop watching Charlie Rose and Jihadi recruitment videos, but in the meantime the sheer quantity and volume and the increasingly uncertain quality are extremely disorganizing. Sooner or later, public revulsion may set in, and the market may fail completely.

    The specific sort of fragility I’m imagining in the market for public information is a vulnerability to cascading failure, which makes the full magnitude of a possible event very difficult to predict in advance. Presumably bullshit crises are like earthquakes. There must be many, many tiny little cascading failures in local bullshit markets all the time, a few medium sized ones every once in a while, and very very rarely, some really huge ones that affect everyone.

    Hopefully this one will be one of the smaller ones, or will be relatively benign, even if it is big. But the Reformation, or the eventual effects of the introduction of radio, movies, telephones, and the mass party early in the twentieth century, can give us some idea of how bad the short-term effects of a really serious bullshit crash can potentially be.

    Some appreciation of the potential risks associated with this kind of rapid change in communications and organizational technology, on the part of our political leaders, might perhaps make them less eager to continue to try to put out fires with gasoline, as they’re presently doing.

    What Is To Be Done?

    Is there anything we can do about all this? In the end, I’m afraid, as in past cases, it’s really mostly going to be up to us. As citizens, we have to learn how to recognize lemons. We have to learn to tell the difference between sincere though possibly mistaken public speech, or the policeman’s hat, customary and acceptable forms of public pretense, and genuinely egregious bullshit. As these things appear in new forms in the new technological environment. And to learn how to tune a lot of the bullshit out. If we can. Eventually the public learns how to navigate under the new technological circumstances. Spinoza writes the Theological-Political Treatise, and order is restored in the market for public information.

    (Unless they don ‘t, and it isn’t. Germany society in the 1920’s and ‘30’s doesn’t really seem to have ever endogenously solved its bullshit problem. And they were incredibly sophisticated people. So it’s possible to fail, even if you’re very smart. Nevertheless, we can hope.)

    Just as Akerlof’s used car market can really only function well if buyers eventually learn to detect lemons, to function in the new world, we all have to become less willing to have our attention grabbed and our emotions inflamed by some bullshit artist with a novel song and dance. Human societies are structured as they are precisely because we don’t and can’t have perfect information about everything and everyone. Moral exhortations to live as if we did are utopian, in a way that should be easier to see now that the people in Raqqa have also become all riled up about what they perceive as the manifold injustices of our global society. Thinking globally implies a will to impose your conception of the good on the whole of humanity. But we don’t need seven billion distinct and incompatible utopian conceptions of the global good being unilaterally imposed on the whole world all at the same time. What we actually want is seven billion people all doing their best to see through that kind of reckless bullshit, on the basis of what they know about their own smaller worlds. Doing their best to not be beguiled or distracted by bullshit artists with simple, morally satisfying solutions for all the world’s most photogenic problems.

    I’m afraid the bad new is that we the people are more or less on our own, in this particular struggle. The New York Times and the Wall Street Journal can’t really help us, or advise us, now, because it’s precisely whether to go on trusting them that we have to decide. There are things they could do to retain or regain our trust, but we shouldn’t hold our breath, because they apparently have yet to perceive any need for reform.

    No, it’s sort of going to have to be up to us to learn to filter out this latest wave of bullshit, and figure out which sources to trust in the new technological environment, just as we’ve eventually done in all the previous crises. The stakes are high. This may be your single most important job, as a citizen. Figuring out which publicly available bullshit is egregious, and of that what part is potentially harmful, and what harmless, or even socially necessary. What makes the whole thing much more complicated is the fact that there’s probably a lot of the existing egregious bullshit that we need to try to keep, for the sake of continuity if nothing else.  And because it takes up space that we don’t want filled with something worse… Even though it may all seem worthless, in the middle of a crash.


    [i]  Frankfurt, H. On Bullshit. Princeton University Press, Princeton, 2005.
    [ii] “On bullshit, part I.” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W1RO93OS0Sk
    [iii] “Bullshit!” https://vimeo.com/167796382
    [iv] McAdams, R. The Expressive Power of Law: Theories and Limits. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA (2015)
    [v] Hayek, F. “The use of knowledge in society.” American Economic Review, XXXV, no. 4 (Sep. 1945) pp. 516-30.
    [vi] Arrow, K. “Methodological individualism and social knowledge.” American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 84 (1994) 1-8.
    [vii] Cloud, D. The Lily. Lassiez Faire Press, Baltimore, MD (2011)
    [viii] Akerlof, G. “The market for ‘lemons’: quality uncertainty and the market mechanism.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 84, no. 3 (Aug. 1970) pp. 488 – 500.
    [ix] Berman, E. “Sect, subsidy, and sacrifice: an economist’s view of ultra-orthodox Jews.” NBER Working Paper No. 6715 (Aug. 1998). Currently available at http://www.nber.org/papers/w6715.pdf
    [x] Weber, M. The Theory of Social and Economic Organization. The Free Press, New York (1947)
    [xi] Dennett, D., and Roy, D. “How digital transparency became a force of nature.” Scientific American, March 2015.
    [xii] http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/transparency-how-transparency-…

  • The War In Afghanistan Is A Good Thing (If You're A Drug-Dealer)

    Submitted by Mnar Muhawesh via MintPressNews.com,

    The “War on Drugs” and the “War on Terror” are more intertwined than that media and our elected officials would like us to think.

    And this became full front and center when the U.S.-led global crusades overlapped in Afghanistan, leaving in their wake a legacy of death, addiction and government corruption tainting Afghan and American soil.

    In the U.S., the War in Afghanistan is among the major contributing factors to the country’s devastating heroin epidemic.

    Over 10,000 people in America died of heroin-related overdoses in 2014 alone– an epidemic fuelled partly by the low cost and availability of one of the world’s most addictive, and most deadly, drugs.

    Despite our promises to eradicate the black market, the U.S. actually enables the illegal drug trade. As journalist Abby Martin writes, the U.S. government has had a long history of facilitating the global drug trade: In the 1950s, it allowed opium to be moved, processed and trafficked throughout the Golden Triangle in Southeast Asia while it trained Taiwanese troops to fight Communist China. In the 80s, the CIA provided logistical and financial support to anti-Communist Contras in Nicaragua who were also known international drug traffickers.

    Since the DEA got the boot from the Bolivian government in 2008, cocaine production in that country has steadily fallen year after year.

    And in 2012, a Mexican government official claimed that rather than fighting drug traffickers, the CIA and other international security forces are actually trying to “manage the drug trade.”

    “It’s like pest control companies, they only control,” Guillermo Terrazas Villanueva, the Chihuahua spokesman, told Al Jazeera. “If you finish off the pests, you are out of a job. If they finish the drug business, they finish their jobs.”

    While there is no conclusive proof that the CIA is physically running opium out of Afghanistan,  Martin notes:

    “[I]t’s hard to believe that a region under full US military occupation – with guard posts and surveillance drones monitoring the mountains of Tora Bora – aren’t able to track supply routes of opium exported from the country’s various poppy farms (you know, the ones the US military are guarding).”

    Ironically, it was the U.S. mission to obliterate the Taliban in the “War on Terror” that turned Afghanistan into a “narco state.”

    Prior to the War in Afghanistan, the Taliban actually offered subsidies to farmers to grow food crops not drugs.

    In the summer of 2000, Taliban leader Mullah Mohammad Omar announced a total ban on the cultivation of opium poppy, the plant from which heroin is made. Those caught planting poppies in Taliban-controlled parts of the country were beaten and marched through villages with motor oil on their faces.

    The only opium harvest the following spring was in the northeast, in an area controlled by the Taliban’s rivals, the Northern Alliance. That year, as Matthieu Aikins reported for Rolling Stone in 2012, “Opium production fell from an estimated 3,276 tons in 2000 to 185 tons in 2001.”

    But then 9/11 hit and the Bush administration pushed into Afghanistan once again, carrying the banner of the “War on Terror.”

    “When the Taliban fled or went into hiding, the farmers lost their financial support to grow food, and returned to growing heroin, a crop that thrives in regions of Afghanistan,” as Dr. Steven Kassels noted in a 2015 piece for Social Justice Solutions.

    Seeking a “light footprint” in Afghanistan, the U.S. and our allies teamed up with what Aikins describes as “anti-Taliban warlords.” Aikins reported: “Within six months of the U.S. invasion, the warlords we backed were running the opium trade, and the spring of 2002 saw a bumper harvest of 3,400 tons.”

    That’s right: The War in Afghanistan saw the country’s practically dead opium industry expanded dramatically. By 2014, Afghanistan was producing twice as much opium as it did in 2000. By 2015, Afghanistan was the source of 90 percent of the world’s opium poppy.

    Since 2001, the U.S. has poured billions into counternarcotics programs in Afghanistan. How could this industry flourish right under the nose of the U.S. and our allies? Well, quite simply, because we let it: Aikins alleges that the DEA, FBI, the Justice Department and the Treasury ALL knew about their corrupt allies in the country, but did nothing to pursue them because it would have derailed the troop surge.

    “The drug is entwined with the highest levels of the Afghan government and the economy in a way that makes the cocaine business in Escobar-era Colombia look like a sideshow,” Aikins writes, later noting: “On the ground, American commanders’ short-term imperatives of combat operations and logistics trumped other advisers’ long-term concerns over corruption, narcotics and human rights abuses, every time.”

    But where did it all go? Well, as Aikins reported, Afghanistan’s “borders leak opium like sieves into five neighboring countries.”

    The increased supply flooded European, Asian and Middle Eastern markets. And with Europe no longer reaching out to opium producers in South America and Mexico, that excess flooded the American market. Prices fell everywhere, making heroin dangerously cheap and dangerously accessible.

    And this is where we find ourselves today: Heroin, one of the most addictive and deadly substances on Earth, can be found for as little a $4 a bag in some American cities.

    Between 2002 and 2013, heroin-related overdose deaths quadrupled. In 2014, more than 10,000 people died of heroin overdoses in America. Should we add these casualties to the 3,504 U.S. and coalition soldiers who died in the war, or the 26,000 dead Afghan civilians?

    And heroin use is up across the entire population. Age, sex, race, income, location — it doesn’t matter. And, as the CDC notes, “Some of the greatest increases occurred in demographic groups with historically low rates of heroin use: women, the privately insured, and people with higher incomes.”

    Unfortunately, it’s not just the U.S. suffering under the weight of a heroin addiction that’s hit epidemic proportions: Afghanistan, which has a long cultural tradition of smoking opium, is dealing not just with its status as a “narco state,” as Aikins described it, but also with the health and social ills stemming from increased heroin use.

    In the process of waging a “War on Terror,” we lost the “War on Drugs.” Both wars deal in corruption and violence, and they put real human lives on the line — not just on the battlefield, but in the fields where farmers cultivate crops and in the neighborhoods where people live.

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Today’s News 23rd July 2016

  • THE SUBPRIME U.S. ECONOMY: Disintegrating Due To Subprime Auto, Housing, Bond & Energy Debt

    srsrocco

    By the SRSrocco Report,

    The U.S. financial system continues to disintegrate even though most Americans hardly notice.  The system is being gutted from the inside out… much the same way a chronic disease weakens a patient even before any symptoms are felt.  However, we are already experiencing painful symptoms as U.S. economic indicators continue to weaken.

    Here are just a few of the recent headlines:

    Energy Giant Schlumberger Fires Another 8,000 As “Market Conditions Worsen” in Q2

    The Financial System Is Breaking Down At An Unimaginable Pace

    Potential Crisis Triggers Continue To Pile Up In 2016

    Just In Time—–Big Wall Street Housing Investors Cashing-Out On Housing Bubble 2.0

    Corporate Bond Defaults Hit Highest Rate Since Financial Crisis

    These are just some of the recent headlines pointing to BIG TROUBLE AHEAD.  However, the U.S. financial system is in dire shape due to the SUBPRIMING of the entire economy.  Today, anyone can purchase a car for little or nothing down and finance it for 84 months.  The U.S. housing market is also in the same predicament.

    According to the article, Are We Heading for Another Housing Crisis?, published on May 12th this year:

    While the economy and home prices have both rebounded, some people have expressed concern we are headed for a repeat housing bubble. As of January 2016, home prices were rising at a rate twice that of inflation, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index.

     

    What’s more, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have unveiled programs to allow first-time homebuyers to make a purchase with only 3 percent down. Plus, some lenders are using alternate credit scores, which may make loans available to those who can’t get one under conventional credit scoring methods.

    So, here we are heading down the same path as we did prior to the 2008 U.S. Investment Banking and Housing collapse.  However, this time around its both a Subprime Auto & Housing problem.  But, that is just part of the Subprime mess.

    As most of you already know, many of the world’s sovereign bonds have negative yields.  According to the article, The Financial System Is Breaking Down At An Unimaginable Pace:

    In February 2015, the total amount of negative-yielding debt in the world was ‘only’ $3.6 trillion.

    A year later in February 2016 it had nearly doubled to $7 trillion.

     

    Now, just five months later, it has nearly doubled again to $13 trillion, up from $11.7 trillion just over two weeks ago.

    Think about that: the total sum of negative-yielding debt in the world has increased in the last sixteen days alone by an amount that’s larger than the entire GDP of Russia.

     

    Just like subprime mortgage bonds from ten years ago, these bonds are also toxic securities, since many of are issued by bankrupt governments (like Japan).

     

    Instead of paying subprime home buyers to borrow money, investors are now paying subprime governments.

    And just like the build-up to the 2008 subprime crisis, investors are snapping up today’s subprime bonds with frightening enthusiasm.

    To see total world negative-yielding debt doubling to $13 trillion in just the past six months is a BLINKING RED LIGHT.

    So, not only do we have Subprime Auto & Housing… we also have to include Subprime Govt Bonds.  While U.S. Treasuries and bonds are not yet negative-yielding, I believe it is just a matter of time.

    As we can see, the U.S. is now becoming a massive SUBPRIME ECONOMY.  Unfortunately, it gets much worse.  The factor that most analysts have not yet factored into the subprime disaster is energy.

    I would like to remind my readers and new followers that it takes energy to run the Auto, Housing & Bond markets.  Yes, it takes the burning of energy to allow the global bond markets to function.  Basically, Treasuries and Bonds are nothing more than claims on future economic activity.  My sympathy goes out to anyone holding onto 20-30 year bonds until maturity.  I highly doubt these bonds will ever make it to maturity.

    That being said, let’s look at the catastrophe taking place in the U.S. Subprime Energy Industry.

    U.S. Shale Oil Companies Saddled With Debt Up To Their Eyeballs

    I discussed the big trouble with the U.S. Shale Energy Industry in my recent interview with Dan at Future Money Trends.  If you haven’t yet checked it out, I highly recommend it:

    https://youtu.be/Zpxb2G_6oes

    During the interview I spoke about the following chart below.  These are some of the top U.S. Shale oil companies.  I included Chevron, not because it is a large shale oil producer, but because it is one of the three major oil companies in the United States:

    US Shale Oil Companies Long Term Debt

    In 2006, these seven U.S. oil companies held $17.2 billion in combined long-term debt.  However, by 2015… this ballooned to $72.1 billion.  Basically, their debt increased four times in a decade.  Now, the interesting thing to understand about this chart is that their long-term debt really started to increase in 2011.  Why is this significant?

    Because, the price of U.S. oil (West Texas Crude) was nearly $100 for 2011, 2012 and 2013.  Which means, the high oil price did nothing to help these companies pay down their debt.  Rather, their long-term debt more than doubled in just the past four years.

    I hope anyone reading this will realize, SHALE OIL IS SUBPRIME ENERGY that really wasn’t economic unless we had zero interest rates and monetary printing.  Even though the U.S. Shale Oil Industry brought on a lot of oil in the past decade, they really didn’t make any money… they just saddled their balance sheets with debt.

    Let’s take a look at the most recent data from the top four shale oil fields in the United States.  According to the U.S. EIA Drilling Productivity Report released on July 18, the Bakken and Eagle Ford shale oil fields are estimated to suffer large declines in August:

    Bakken Oil production

    Eagle Ford Oil production

    The EIA forecasts that the Bakken and Eagle Ford will lose 80,000 barrels per day in just August.  These are BIG NUMBERS.  If we look at the actual production figures for the top four shale oil fields, here is the result:

    Top 4 Shale Oil Production

    Oil production from the top four shale oil fields has declined 914,000 barrels per day (bd) since the peak in March 2015.  This translates to a 17% decline in oil production from these four fields in just 16 months.  However, the impact on the U.S. economy is even worse when we look at the figures on a monthly and annual basis.

    This next chart shows the combined loss of oil production from these top four shale oil fields based upon the minimum production from Nov 2014 to Nov 2015.  Let me explain.  In Nov 2014, these shale fields produced 5,027,000 bd, peaked in March 2015 at 5,304,000 bd and then fell back to 5,106,000 bd in Nov 2015.  So between Nov 2014 & Nov 2015, these fields produced a minimum of 5,067,000 barrels per day.

    In August, the Bakken, Eagle Ford, Niobrara & Permian oil fields will be producing approximately 4,390,000 barrels per day.  This is a 676,000 barrel per day decline from the minimum production these four fields produced for a year during that Nov 2014-2015 time period.

    The reason why I decided to do it this way is to show that these four fields produced at least 5,067,000 barrels per day for an entire year.  To show the decline from the high peak is disingenuous because it was only for a brief one month period.  This means, these top four fields will lose 20.3 million barrels of oil in a month and a stunning 247 million barrels in a year:

    Top 4 Shale Oil Fields Production Loss

    However, it will be much worse than this going forward as U.S. Shale oil production continues to decline.  How bad will it be?  Well, if these companies received $50 a barrel for oil, it turns out to be a loss of $13.7 billion in a year.  But, as I stated, it will be worse as oil production continues to decline.

    I published this chart in a previous article, but it’s important to see again:

    U.S. Energy Sector Interest on Debt

    The U.S. Energy Sector is saddled with $370 billion in debt.  In 2015, the U.S. Energy Sector paid 48% of their operating profits just to pay the interest on their debt.  This ballooned to 86% in Q1 2016 when the oil price fell to $33.  If the oil price remains between $40-$50, the U.S. Energy Sector will likely have to fork out 60-70% of its operating income just to service its debt in 2016.

    And of course… IT’S EVEN WORSE THAN THAT… LOL.  We must remember, for most of 2015, the top shale oil fields were producing 676,000 barrels per day more than they will be this year.  Thus, they will have less revenues due to falling oil production.

    So, the billion dollar question is this… how will the U.S. Energy Sector survive with low oil prices and falling production???

    Welcome to SUBPRIME USA.

    Unfortunately, the coming collapse of the U.S. economic and financial system will be orders of magnitude greater than what took place in 2008.  Why?  Because we just had a subprime housing market in 2008, whereas the entire U.S. economy today is SUBPRIME….  Subprime Auto, Housing, Bonds & Energy.

    Lastly, while some precious metals investors have become a bit frustrated by the low gold and silver prices or the ongoing manipulation of the markets by the Fed and Central Banks, the current system is not sustainable.  The doubling of world debt with negative yielding debt in the past six months is a bad sign indeed.

    Owning physical gold and silver will provide a lot more options during the next economic and financial collapse than most of the paper assets 99% of the world is invested.

    IMPORTANT NOTICE:  Here is the link to register for the SRSrocco Report Precious Metals Webinar taking place on Tuesday, August 2nd at 6 pm EST – Eastern Standard Time:

    SIGNUP For SRSrocco Precious Metals Webinar

    Lastly, if you haven’t checked out our new PRECIOUS METALS INVESTING section or our new LOWEST COST PRECIOUS METALS STORAGE page, I highly recommend you do.

    Check back for new articles and updates at the SRSrocco Report.

  • America Needs A Good, Old-Fashioned Economic Depression

    Submitted by Jay Kawatsky via The National Interest,

    Artificial measures to stave off a downturn will only make it much worse.

    Describing what he called the “crack-up boom”, Ludwig von Mises, the great Austrian economist, said:

    The boom cannot continue indefinitely. There are two alternatives. Either the banks continue the credit expansion without restriction and thus cause constantly mounting price increases and an ever-growing orgy of speculation – which, as in all other cases of unlimited inflation, ends in a “crack-up boom” and in a collapse of the money and credit system.

     

    Or the banks stop before this point is reached, voluntarily renounce further credit expansion, and thus bring about the crisis. The depression follows in both instances. (emphasis added)

    Although it would be the wiser policy, there is no evidence that the world’s central bankers have the wisdom, either individually or collectively, to select the second alternative. More specifically, they lack “the courage to act” (as Ben Bernanke’s recent, self-congratulatory memoir was so ironically titled); they and their political, big finance and big business cronies are afraid to swallow the “d-pill”, the economic medicine named “depression”.

    A good, old-fashioned, pre-1929 depression (like the short-lived, eleven-month depression in 1920-1921, before the days of “modern” central banking and “enlightened” Keynesian intervention “cures”) is the only tonic that can clear out the malinvestment built up since the beginning of the fiat money era. That era began in August of 1971. That is when Richard Nixon, informed that U.S. gold reserves were precipitously declining as a result of President Johnson’s March 1968 action to reduce the gold reserve ratio from 25 percent to zero, “temporarily” suspended the convertibility of the U.S. Dollar into gold. That “temporary” measure has been in effect for forty-five years.

    Finally freed from the constraints of what they could not print (i.e., gold), central bankers and their cronies in government, finance and big business were given a license to debase all formerly hard currencies. (Such currencies were “hard”, as they were linked, via the Bretton Woods arrangement, to the dollar, which was backed by gold.) And debase they did: they replaced real investment capital (i.e. actual savings) with cheap, invented credit; they replaced market-derived price (of money) discovery, i.e., market-derived interest rates, with central-bank-proclaimed interest rates.

    The actions of central bankers to suppress real price discovery (i.e., market-derived interest rates) now has led to nearly $12 trillion of sovereign debt having been issued with interest rates below zero (“NIRP”, or “negative interest rate policy”). That means that more than one third of all sovereign debt worldwide now carries negative interest rates.

    That nearly $12 trillion total includes $3.2 trillion of short-term sovereign debt and $8.5 trillion of long-term sovereign debt. The total NIRP debt is up $1.3 trillion from the end of May. Even more astounding is that the total amount of negative-yielding debt with maturities of seven years or longer has ballooned to $2.6 trillion. That is nearly double just since April of this year. In fact, all of the debt issued by the Swiss government – every borrowed franc, even Swiss fifty-year bonds – now carries a negative yield. All of the debt issued by the Japanese government (JGBs) with maturities up to twenty years now carries a negative yield.

    Imagine lending money to anyone, even the Swiss government, for fifty years, ultimately getting back less than you loaned … and paying for the privilege! What such an investor has to believe, in order to make such a loan, is that inflation over the next fifty years will be substantially negative (i.e., a great, and long-lasting deflation), with the result that the purchasing power of the Swissie will increase substantially over the next fifty years. But every major currency on the planet, including the US dollar, the British pound, the Japanese yen and the Euro/DM, has lost purchasing power over the last forty-five years (since the end of Bretton Woods).

    Without some form of scarce commodity backing (e.g., precious metals) for currencies, why would anyone, particularly sovereign bond investors, believe that currency units, which can be conjured at will from thin air (not a scarce commodity) by desperate governments, will be worth more, not less, over the next fifty years? But believe it they do, proving that, at least with respect to high finance (better named low-IQ finance?), you can fool all of the people (the investment public) all of the time.

    NIRP simply never could exist in a real-money world, where credit, like all commodities, is scarce and must be rationed by the market. But European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi, with the implicit and explicit assent of all the world’s central bankers and the urging of their cronies in government, finance and big business who get “first crack” at the conjured money, has reiterated over and over that there would be “no limits” to what he and the ECB might do with respect to printing money and further reducing interest rates. (No wonder the workaday citizens of Great Britain voted overwhelmingly for Leave.)

    ZIRP and NIRP certainly have well served the central banks and their crony political, finance and big business elite masters (the top 1 percent of the top 1 percent). Money printed by central banks ex nihilo (out of nothing) has poured into the world’s stock markets, fueling stock buybacks that enrich big-business management via soaring stock-options values. Money printed by central banks has fueled an auto-loan bubble, with total auto debt now more than $1 trillion. Money printed by central banks has fueled the rapid increase in student debt that either will enslave American youth, preventing most from participating in the “American Dream” of home ownership and a reasonable retirement, or turn them into rabid supporters of socialist politicians (e.g., Bernie Sanders) who promise to absolve them of their unpayable debts.

    But the central bankers’ ability to defy economic gravity may, at long last, be coming to an end. Even the radical Keynesian, Richard Koo has recognized the outrage of NIRP, which he recently described as “an act of desperation born out of despair over the inability of quantitative easing and inflation targeting to produce the desired results… the failure of monetary easing symbolizes crisis in macroeconomics."

    The failure of ZIRP, QE and now NIRP is easy to see from recent corporate earnings reports and associated PE multiples: As of close of trading on Friday, July 1, 2016, the S&P 500 was trading at 24.3 times earnings over the last twelve months, close to an historical record high PE multiple. Generally (meaning before fiat money), elevated PE multiples were notched during times of increasing earnings. But for the first fiscal quarter of 2016 (FQE 3/31), S&P 500 earnings per share were only $87. That is 18 percent less than the $106-per-share earnings peak reported for the third quarter (FQE 9/30) of 2014. If money printing and central-bank-dictated interest rates were the saviors of the real economy, and if the United States were actually experiencing a real economic recovery, corporate earnings would be increasing, not declining precipitously.

    Interestingly, the first quarter 2016’s $87 per share earnings were eerily equivalent to the $85 earnings per share for the last twelve months just preceding the 2008 crash. And the S&P 500 multiple was only 18.4 at that time. So stocks have a long way to fall from their elevated current levels, levels only reached as a result of share buybacks (artificially increasing earnings per outstanding share and increasing per share prices), which buybacks were (and continue to be) fueled by relentless near-ZIRP maintained by the U.S. Federal Reserve, as well as so-called “carry-trade” borrowings in currencies with NIRP (such as the Japanese yen).

    The failure of ZIRP, QE and now NIRP also is easy to see from recent corporate sales reports: According to the most recently updated Inventories to Sales Ratio compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the inventory to sales ratio is hovering at 1.35, just below the highest recorded (1.41 in January of 2009) in over twenty years. That ratio exploded higher (meaning unsold goods are piling up) every quarter since the end of the second quarter of 2014. If money printing and central bank-dictated interest rates were the saviors of the real economy, and if the United States were actually experiencing a real economic recovery, inventories would not be languishing unsold on the shelves of suppliers and merchants. Workers with higher pay checks would be consuming them.

    Which brings us to perhaps the easiest way to understand the failure of ZIRP, QE and now NIRP: the labor market. Contrary to the claims of the Obama administration’s Bureau of Labor Statistics’ headline unemployment numbers (which counts job slots, so that a part-time gig is the equivalent of a forty-hour-per-week career job paying over $50,000 per year), there is not more work being done in America. There actually is less, as former full time jobs (with benefits) have been, and continue to be, replaced with more part-time, lower paying jobs (without benefits). Indeed, as former OMB chief David Stockman has instructed, the number of what can be called “breadwinner jobs”, which are jobs that can support a family of four, is now almost one million below the number of such jobs in the year 2000. If money printing and central bank-dictated interest rates were the saviors of the real economy, and if the United States were actually experiencing a real economic recovery, there would be more “breadwinner jobs” now than in 2000, when the population was considerably lower.

    The crack-up boom, fueled by fiat money, QE, ZIRP and now NIRP, is coming. It will hit on a global scale, and “rock the casbah” (and all points north, south, east and west thereof). It will make the Great Depression look like a picnic party in the park. Why will it be worse? Consider just two simple facts: first, supply chains are much longer and considerably more intricate than eighty-five years ago. As they fail (due to bankruptcies and business failures of those in the chain), basic necessities will not get to those in need of them. Second, compared to eighty-five years ago, the world has billions more mouths to feed, and many fewer people, including millions fewer farmers, who actually know how to produce the basic necessities.

    Yes, central bankers can print currency units, but not food, energy or other commodities necessary for sustaining life. As basic commodities become more scarce or are priced out of the reach of average folks, wars, riots, rebellions, diseases and repressive governments will result. All of this human suffering will be the progeny of ZIRP, QE and NIRP, which in turn are the progeny of the replacement of the gold standard by the Ph.D standard.

  • Hillary Clinton Picks Tim Kaine For Vice President

    Moments ago the worst kept secret in Washington was confirmed when Hillary Clinton announced on Twitter she has picked Virginia senator Tim Kaine as her running mate in an attempt to bolster her support among blue-collar workers and maximize votes from US Latinos dismayed by Donald Trump.

    Kaine, 58, a Catholic former governor of Virginia, has described himself in the past as “boring”, and is seen as a safe, moderate if unexciting option, but his everyman roots, executive experience and fluent Spanish are assets that could strengthen the Democratic ticket. By choosing  Kaine, 58, a moderate Democrat from a battleground state, Clinton has passed up the chance to pick a left-winger such as senator Elizabeth Warren.

    “I am boring,” he said on NBC in June, but then joked, “Boring is the fastest-growing demographic in this country.”

    Others on her list presented risks. For instance, some thought an all-women ticket with Sen. Warren could turn off potential backers.  Clinton also looked at a political novice, retired Adm. James Stavridis, who is an expert in foreign policy but hasn’t faced the rigors of a political campaign.

    According to the FT, Clinton has matched Trump by picking a seasoned elected official who has served as both a governor and a member of Congress. But while the main role of Mike Pence, the Indiana governor chosen by Trump, is to shore up support from conservatives within the Republican party, Kaine will aim to broaden support for Clinton beyond the Democratic base.

    “He’s from a working-class background, so he understands the difficulties of blue-collar people and others who don’t have a lot of economic resources,” said Carl Tobias, a University of Richmond law professor who has known Mr Kaine since he taught at the college in the late 1980s.

    “He’d be very good with the kind of voters Trump is attracting, but he can also reach out to lawyers and elites.”

    Clinton announced the move Friday via Twitter, moments after the tragic shooting in Munich got the “all clear”, and  following the Republican National Convention that adjourned with Donald Trump as the GOP nominee. Democrats hoped the announcement would blunt any momentum Trump gained from his convention. Clinton is expected to campaign with Kaine on Saturday in Miami.

    “I’m thrilled to announce my running mate, @TimKaine, a man who’s devoted his life to fighting for others,” she tweeted.

    A campaign official said Clinton made up her mind Friday to tap Kaine. She called him at 7:32 p.m. from Tampa, where she had appeared at a rally, the official said.

    Virginia, a battleground state where Kaine also served as mayor of Richmond, is one of a handful of swing states that will determine the outcome of the race for the White House. Although his state is not part of the rust belt, where Trump’s anti-globalisation stance is most resonant, Kaine has seen first-hand the decline of textile and furniture factories in southern Virginia.

    His own father was a welder who ran a metalworking shop in Kansas City, where Mr Kaine’s family moved after his birth in Minnesota. After she spoke to Kaine, Clinton called President Barack Obama to notify him of her choice, the official said.

    According to the WSJ, Kaine could help Clinton with minority voters. He took a year off law school to help run a technical school founded by Jesuit missionaries in Honduras. In 2013, he delivered a speech in Spanish on the Senate floor in support of an immigration overhaul. A Catholic, Mr. Kaine joined an African-American church in Richmond and was elected mayor of that majority black city.  Many Democrats have long assumed Clinton would choose Mr. Kaine because of his credentials, her comfort with him and because choosing him comes with few risks.

    Kaine’s his selection could come as a disappointment to the liberal wing of the party, some of which had hoped Clinton would turn to a more populist leader, such as Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, in an effort to unite the party following a divisive primary. Kaine’s positions in favor of trade and other matters leave many progressives cold. He is unpopular with some in the Democratic Party’s liberal wing due to his positions on trade and other issues. Last year, he voted to give the president “fast-track” authority to smooth passage of a controversial 12-nation trade pact called the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a deal opposed by the Democratic base. Mr. Kaine has said free-trade deals can help the economy if negotiated in ways that protect workers’ rights.

    “He does nothing for [Bernie] Sanders supporters. He does nothing for the young or people of color. He won’t help win the white workers devastated by our perverse trade policies,” said Robert Borosage, co-director of the liberal group Campaign For America’s Future. “He is the choice of a candidate confident of victory who wants a safe VP.”

    Mr. Kaine is unpopular with some in the Democratic Party’s liberal wing due to his positions on trade and other issues. Last year, he voted to give the president “fast-track” authority to smooth passage of a controversial 12-nation trade pact called the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a deal opposed by the Democratic base. Mr. Kaine has said free-trade deals can help the economy if negotiated in ways that protect workers’ rights. “He does nothing for [Bernie] Sanders supporters. He does nothing for the young or people of color. He won’t help win the white workers devastated by our perverse trade policies,” said Robert Borosage, co-director of the liberal group Campaign For America’s Future. “He is the choice of a candidate confident of victory who wants a safe VP.”

    With Donald Trump running as the law-and-order candidate, Republicans hope to tar Kaine for his opposition to the death penalty and cite his pro bono work to try to free two murderers convicted in the 1980s. The effort will echo Kaine’s 2005 campaign for governor of Virginia, when then state Attorney General Jerry Kilgore used the issue against him. What’s new is GOP researchers uncovered the argument used by Mr. Kaine as a lawyer, that the death penalty wasn’t warranted in one case because the suspect didn’t actually rape the 17-year-old victim, but instead sodomized her.

    “We plan to use this to show his extreme position on criminal-justice issues,” an RNC official said. As governor, however, Kaine didn’t let his personal views stop death-penalty cases and didn’t intervene in 11 executions, including that of Washington sniper John A. Muhammad.

    The senator has been one of Clinton’s most dedicated supporters on the Hill, endorsing her for president in early 2014 before she even announced her candidacy.

    Kaine has represented Virginia in the Senate since 2012. From 2006 to 2010 he served as governor of the state, which includes wealthy suburbs of Washington DC, big military bases and pockets of rural poverty. His wife Anne Holton is Virginia’s secretary of education.

    The state has voted for the winning candidate in seven of the last nine presidential elections.

  • Awkward?

    “Peddling fiction versus “inconvenient truths

    Presented with little comment – Grabbed from the front page of CNN – ivory tower ignorance or willful blindness, you decide…

    h/t @momomiester

    But have no fear, America – While Obama says there’s no “doom and gloom”, Hillary is “monitoring” the situation…

  • Hillary Says Trump Is Most Dangerous Presidential Candidate Ever – But Is She?

    Via The Daily Bell,

    Hillary Clinton said Monday that Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, was the most dangerous presidential candidate in the history of the United States. -CNN

    Clinton, in an interview with CBS News’ Charlie Rose, believes Donald Trump has “no self-discipline, no self-control, no sense of history, no understanding of the limits of the kind of power that any president should impose upon himself.”

    All of this could be applied to Clinton. She is by far the more dangerous of the two candidates.

    If Clinton gets into office, she will start or expand wars and through large economic programs will ensure the US’s quasi-depression deepens and that the economy never truly recovers at all (even though it may seem to.)

    If things aren’t getting worse, Hillary’s power is not advancing. She is good at making things worse.

    As her opponent, Donald Trump’s main recommendation is that he has not been a politician before.

    Donald Trump has chiefly been a builder and businessman.

    But Hillary has basically been a politician.

    Economically speaking, politics is price fixing. Laws are price-fixes, forbidding people from taking certain actions in favor of other ones.

    We may agree or disagree with these price-fixes, but they exist and are a function of lawmaking.

    Price-fixes always distort and degrade economies. The more laws you have, the more price-fixing and the more degradation.

    We’ve often argued for private justice for instance in which individuals work out their own civil and criminal differences.

    The less price-fixing (state control), the better.

    The modern state – with its massive economic, political and judicial interference – is already well on its way to toppling.

    Hillary Clinton has done well in the current system. She and her husband have built a gigantic non-profit and reportedly use it to trade favors with powerful people around the world.

    She and Bill are connected at the highest levels and can influence US political and military decisions.

    People will pay lots of money to anyone with this sort of clout. But the money does not apparently go directly to the Clintons. Instead it reportedly goes to their non-profit, so it does not seem as if the Clintons are accepting payments for their “help.”

    How well is this non-profit run? Here, from an April 2015 New York Post in an article entitled, “Clinton Foundation a ‘Slush Fund.’

    The Clinton Foundation’s finances are so messy that the nation’s most influential charity watchdog put it on its “watch list” of problematic nonprofits last month.  The Clinton family’s mega-charity took in more than $140 million in grants and pledges in 2013 but spent just $9 million on direct aid.

     

    The group spent the bulk of its windfall on administration, travel, and salaries and bonuses, with the fattest payouts going to family friends …

     

    “It seems like the Clinton Foundation operates as a slush fund for the Clintons,” said Bill Allison, a senior fellow at the Sunlight Foundation, a government watchdog.

    Supporters of the Clintons would no doubt disagree with this assessment, as would Hillary herself.

    In her interview, Hillary said of Trump, “What he has laid out is the most dangerous, reckless approach to being president than I think we’ve ever seen.”

    More from the article:

    “There is a lot of fear in our country. And when Americans are worried they’re looking for answers. He’s providing simplistic, easy answers,” Clinton said.

    The article quotes poll numbers that indicate Americans are more confident about Hillary’s experience and ability to be president, even though they don’t trust her.

    This is unfortunate. As political price-fixes must by definition make economies worse (unless they are removing laws), the more “experienced” a politician is,  the more destructive he or she has the capacity to be.

    In fact, Hillary and Bill are multimillionaires many times over. Their overarching priority is self-enrichment and the accumulation of power.

    Bottom line: Hillary is being groomed for president because she will help usher in the next wave of democracy, which is a form of global technocracy.

    This form of government  with emphasize the power of multinational corporations and those run them.

    These corporations, more than ever, will work closely with powerful politicians to generate and expand serial wars necessary to advance globalist control.

    When the Gutenberg press undermined the Catholic Church and the divinity of kings, the powers-that-be began to promote “democracy.” The French Revolution was created to further the concept.

    Now that the Internet has exposed the phoniness of most “democracy,” a new form of governance is being promoted. This will emphasize the global marketplace as run by multinational corporations and their technocratic “experts.”

    New international trade courts are being created that will allow corporations to have equal footing with nation-states.

    None of this is coincidence.

    Trade deals TPP and TPIP are both foundational building blocks of this new era. Hillary, from what we can tell, is intended to be the point person to advance this paradigm.

    Tomorrow’s globalism, as Hillary’s backers conceive of it, will be racked by war and ruled via corporate authoritarianism. As we pointed out previously, HERE, Hillary is no “democrat” and no “liberal.”

    Conclusion: Win or lose, Hillary will continue to be a dangerous backer and builder of corporate, globalist technocracy. If she wins, she’ll pursue her goals on the national stage. If she  loses, she will continue to work behind the scenes. Either way she’s dangerous.

  • "That's A Scary Graph" Former Fed Economist Warns

    The problem, warns 33-year St.Louis Fed veteran Daniel Thornton, is that "the financial cycle is way ahead of the economic cycle." As Bloomberg notes, that's a worry given that the past two downturns were driven by asset-price deflation.

    Americans are about as wealthy as they've ever been – and that's a worry?

     

    Yup, say veteran economists Daniel Thornton and Joe Carson. They're concerned that the swelling of wealth could prove unsustainable because it's far outstripped the growth of the economy since the recession's end in 2009.

     

    Thornton, who spent 33 years at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis before retiring in 2014, says in effect that we've seen this picture before. Household net worth ballooned in the late 1990's and the early 2000's; in the first instance pumped up by rising stock prices, in the second by expanding home values.

    Both cases ended badly, with the economy falling into recession after the bubbles burst.

    Chart: Bloomberg

    Just as occurred in the previous two episodes, the latest expansion of wealth  has been driven more by rising prices of assets -in this case both shares and homes – than by improved economic fundamentals

    Since 2009, households have seen their holdings of stock and mutual funds nearly double, to $20.6 trillion.

     

    Only 6 percent of that gain can be ascribed to new flows of money into the funds or share purchases, according to calculations by Carson, director of global economic research at AllianceBernstein LP in New York. The rest is due to price appreciation.

    As the veteran economist sum up:

    The problem, he said, is that "the financial cycle is way ahead of the economic cycle.'' That's a worry given that the past two downturns were driven by asset-price deflation.

     

    "Nobody knows what's going to happen," Thornton said. "But there's plenty of reason to think that’s a scary graph."

    Still, why worry, with stock valuations at 12 year highs (amid decling earnings) and median home prices well above the prior peak, what could go wrong?

  • Stocks 'Safer' Than Bonds? The Last Time This Happened Did Not End Well

    It’s quiet out there, too quiet. With VIX once again testing cycle lows, equity risk is trading below bond risk for the first time since right before markets crashed in August 2015.

    S&P 500 implied volatility (VIX) has now been lower than Treasury ETF TLT’s implied volatility for the month of July (since Brexit)…

     

    As FundStrat’s Tom Lee points out in a recent reports, gaps as wide as the current one were followed 68% of the time by S&P 500 Index declines in the next 20 trading days, according to his data… and is clear from above, the last time stocks got this ‘relatively’ complacent, things went south very fast.

  • The 9-Point Guide To Deciphering Political Propaganda

    Submitted by David Galland via GarrentGalland.com,

    Given we are eyeballs-deep in the US presidential election cycle, now seems a particularly appropriate time to share some observations on the topic of political propaganda.

    As a naturally curious fellow, some years ago – during the Clinton vs. Bush Senior contest – I became interested in the language and techniques used in political campaigning. So much so that I dedicated my daily study period to the topic for the better part of a week.

    Since it will be impossible to escape the rhetorical onslaught for the next few months, I thought I might be able to shed some light on what goes on in the battle for your subconscious.

    As these insights come from the well-worn pages of playbooks of every politician around the world, I think they are pretty much timeless and cross all borders.

    At the core of what I learned in my studies is that the stock and trade of the propagandist revolves around trying to simplify issues, no matter how complex, into easily understood concepts that tap into the existing attitudes and emotions of the target audience.

    As an aside, since this topic touches on politics, I may inadvertently gore your ox. For the record, I view most politicians and political parties with disdain, though my disdain is particularly elevated for politicians espousing policies that interfere with my life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness.

    With that brief introduction, here are just some of the techniques you can watch for as the election season gains steam.

    1. Use stereotypes.

    This technique has probably been in active use since humans lived in caves. Successfully drape the opponent in the cloak of a stereotype that triggers a negative image, and you’ve done a good day’s work as a propagandist.

    Depending on which side of the political spectrum you swing to, you might trot out old favorites such as “rich fat cat,” or “friend of Wall Street,” or “big-government socialist,” or any one of many handy sterotypes. These stereotypes allow you to instantly tap into powerful underlying prejudices and emotions.

    And, for the record, it is a well-documented fact that when we humans are emotionally worked up, we become much more suspectible to follow-on political messaging.

    2. Name substitution.

    The propagandist will try to label the opponent with an unflattering, and memorable, term. If that is successful, the label will involuntarily come to mind at the sight of the opponent. Donald Trump is the reigning champion of this technique, using name substitution like a two-by-four against his opponents.

    Every time Elizabeth Warren’s name comes up, my mind automatically substitutes her name with Pocahontas and I have to smile. On the other side of the contest, the Hillary camp has been trying to stick Trump with the “bully” label. I expect to see a lot more of that.

    3. Selection.

    Out of a mass of complex facts, the propagandist selects only those that are suitable for his or her purpose. You wouldn’t expect Trump to mention his past bankruptcies, or Hillary her long list of crimes.

    There is, actually, an instance where Trump might want to mention his bankruptcies. Folks in the influence business—including trial lawyers—use a technique called “inoculation” where, knowing your opponent is going to come after you on a point, you bring it up first and therefore diffuse it.

    “My opponent, Crooked Hillary, is probably going to mention the fact that I have had some businesses go bankrupt many years ago. She’s right.

    “When you’re involved in the rough and tumble world of business, sometimes things just aren’t going to work out, and so you have to do what you have to do to protect your employees and buy some time to pay your debts.

    But here’s the important thing to remember. I’ve run businesses—big businesses—ever since I was 19 years old. And Crooked Hillary? She’s a lawyer and never ran a single business. Not once. And that’s the problem with American politics… too many lawyers and not enough business folks!”

    4. Downright lying.

    The “big lie” has always been an important part of propaganda.

    Remember the woman who came forward to tell Congress about Iraqi soldiers raping and hacking their way through a maternity ward in Kuwait as part of the campaign to get the US to invade? The politicians got emotionally involved in the story and so, per my earlier comments, were made more susceptible to the idea of invading Iraq.

    Turned out the woman was the daughter of a high-ranking Kuwaiti official who had been enlisted by a PR firm, and her story was completely fabricated.

    Not so long ago, Bloomberg ginned up a story claiming Trump had invited thug and convicted rapist Mike Tyson to address the Republican convention.

    Baseless nonsense dreamed up by soulless PR cretins, and nothing more.

    5. Repetition.

    If you repeat a statement often enough, it will become ingrained in the minds of your target audience.

    For example, the myth propagated by the Democrats that the rich need to pay their “fair share” despite the fact that the top 10% of income earners pay 70% of all federal income taxes.

    On the flip side, the Republications constantly repeat the mantra that Democrats are all in favor of “big government” despite the reality that the size of the government has continued to grow in size under Republican and Democrat administrations alike.

    6. Assertion.

    The clever propagandist rarely engages in a substantive debate over the issues, but instead favors bold assertions to support his thesis. This is logical because the essence of propaganda is to present only one side of the picture and deliberately obfuscate or bury facts to the contrary.

    We are told Donald Trump is a bigot, but for the life of me, I can’t find any examples. Unless you think his call for enforcing immigration laws bigoted.

    We are told that police target black men for summary execution, a meme that has contributed mightily to the recent outbreak of violence against the police. In time, that will also result in the police keeping their hands in their pockets and avoiding neighborhoods where they aren’t wanted. At which point the real mayhem will begin.

    It doesn’t matter that the assertion is not factually true, what does matter is that it fits the narrative that the majority of the white population, especially fat cats like Donald Trump, are racists.

    As to the truth, here is a very worthwhile article that looks past the meme and to the statistical facts.

    7. Identify an enemy that taps into deeply held prejudices.

    It is particularly helpful to the politicians not to just be “for” something, but to be against some real or imagined enemy who is supposedly frustrating the will of his audience. This serves to deflect any opposing views while strengthening “in group” feelings. Some of the campaigners for Brexit used the influx of illegal immigrants very effectively in this regard. As has Donald Trump.

    8. Appeal to authority.

    The authority may be religious or some respected political figure. In the case of the Democrats, you’ll increasingly see references to Bill Clinton, who is apparently remembered fondly by some. By trotting out Bill, Hillary hopes the voters will overlook her many faults.

    Knowing this is coming, the Republicans have done a pretty spiffy job of tarnishing Bill Clinton’s reputation—which wasn’t real hard—with exposés on the Clinton Foundation and his proclivity for women other than his wife. (For the record, I almost made a snarky comment, but refrained.)

    9. Peer pressure.

    One of the most powerful influence techniques is summed up in the phrase, “Everyone else is doing it.” Being a herd animal, it is very hard for us as individuals to go against the crowd. In the Brexit campaign, the media tried to paint the “Leave” folks as malcontents on the fringe.  

    In the US, to self-identify as a Trump supporter is—if you believe the Democrats and the media they control (which is, like, all the media)—you are some sort of gun-hoarding racist nutjob.

    In what might be viewed as either good news or bad, the most fundamental limitation of propaganda is that almost everyone develops a more or less rigid set of beliefs and attitudes early in life and, except in trivial matters, clings to those beliefs.

    Thus, the real task of the propagandist is to tap into those attitudes and attempt, often with deliberate lies, to demonstrate that the propaganda accurately reflects the established views of the audience.

    Here is an example. On first hearing that Trump proposed to build a wall across the border with Mexico, my reaction was incredulous and very negative. What a dumbass idea.

    However, when I heard Trump describe his wall, stressing that the wall would have a “big door, a very, very big door” for people that fulfilled the legal requirements for immigration to pass through, my opposition was muted.

    I still don’t think it’s a practical idea, or even a good idea, but by his clever rhetoric—mentally painting the picture of a big door where people who followed the rules could enter—Trump was able to get me to view the idea of the wall in a different light. To wit, he’s not anti-immigration. Just anti-illegal immigration.

    Some Concluding Observations

    I doubt Trump will win the election. Not only does he have the entire liberal establishment lined up against him, but the propagandists have had great success in turning the larger ethnic communities against him.

    And in what may be a first, even the leadership of his own political party continues to go to great lengths to discredit him.

    This is not to say that Hillary and the Democrats will be able to credibly marshall an effective propaganda attack on Trump that will sway his constituents.

    For starters, that constituency views “Hillary” not just as a political opponent, but an icon for everything that is wrong with the political class. They are not budging even one iota come election day.

    Which makes this a battle for the so-called independents. And that’s where the propagandists will be aiming the big guns.

    The Democrats tried to turn women against Trump by painting him as a misogynist. However, a master of the game, Trump countered by pushing forward the women the media had pointed to as “proof” of his misogyny who, in no uncertain terms, stated that the reporter had made up the whole story.

    So, what scab can the propagandists (successfully) pick to ensure Trump doesn’t attract the independents who are uneasy about the direction America has taken? Well, for sure, Hillary can’t claim he’s corrupt or a crook, you know, because of the whole rocks-and-glass-houses thing.

    So, I expect she’ll play the usual “fat cat” card and double down with the bully thing. That way when he berates her on the national stage, especially in the upcoming debates, she’ll do the equivalent of an “I told you so! Look at how he treats poor me.”

    I think Trump is probably smart enough to figure all this out and be prepared.

    Regardless, at the end of the day it’s going to boil down to demographics. Who has the bulk of the voting public in their camp?

    If Trump is on the right side of the demographics, the side that fondly remembers the idea of America and wants to preserve it, versus those who embrace the brave new world of political correctness, multiculturalism, and populist economics, he’s got a chance.

    If not, he will be toast and those of you who make America your home will have to accept that the country is going to continue slipping down the slippery slope. And not just under Madam President, but under whichever politically correct construct gets elected after her eight-year term ends.

    Who knows, maybe by then the president will be introduced to audiences as “Ze President”?

    So, any hints from the demographic data on who might win?

    A useful gauge of what to expect from the 2016 race is to look back at the 2012 presidential election.

    In 2012, Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney by the comfortable margin of 332 to 206 electoral votes (to win the presidency, a candidate needs 270 electoral votes). In the popular vote, Obama beat Romney by a difference of about five million votes.

    Historically, women make up 53% of presidential voters and men make up 47%. In the 2016 election, it is likely that the gender makeup will stay constant, which will favor Hillary Clinton. According to the Gallup Poll, 70% of women have an unfavorable opinion of Trump. That kind of gender gap could deliver the White House to Clinton.

    On the other end of the scale, Donald Trump has the support of white men who distrust Clinton.

    Trump may like to think he can up his chances in the presidential stakes by appealing to discontented white voters who will constitute an estimated 71% of the voting population in the 2016 elections. But the last presidential election results show otherwise. Even though the Republicans won white votes by huge margins in 2012, Mitt Romney still lost.

    What carried Barack Obama into the White House were minority votes. He won 93% of African-American voters, 71% of Latino voters, and 73% of Asian voters.

    The minority electorate carries even greater weight in 2016—with 38% of Americans constituting minorities, as opposed to 28% in 2012.

    Furthermore, almost two million more Latino voters are expected to turn up for the 2016 elections than in 2012.

    Therefore, Trump will need minority votes if he is to have a chance of winning the White House. An impossibility if one accepts the premise put forward by some political analysts that 84% of nonwhite voters won’t vote for him.

    Based on the demographics, I’m prepared to bet that it’s unlikely that Donald Trump can win the popular vote for the United States presidency in 2016.

    Then again, everyone thought Brexit would fail, so there’s that.

    I will close by saying that there are a couple of scenarios that could change the tide.

    • One is that Trump absolutely dominates in the upcoming presidential debates.
    • The other is that Hillary gets indicted.

    Regardless, I’ll be watching the election results as they come in from a comfortable seat in the Bad Brothers Wine Experience. Which, given the prospects for a Clinton presidency, seems a fine place to be.

  • Beyond 28 Pages: The US – Saudi Relationship Starts To Fray

    Submitted by Kevin Schwartz via Counterpunch.org,

    We taste the spices of Arabia, yet never feel the scorching sun which brings them forth.

     

    -Inscribed around the rotunda of the Jefferson Reading Room in the US Library Congress, above the figure of Commerce

    The long-overdue release of the classified 28 pages of a 2002 congressional inquiry into the 9/11 attacks represents the fullest public accounting of evidence that certain Saudi nationals potentially assisted some of the hijackers. Any evidence, however, that the Saudi government may have knowingly provided assistance at this point remains circumstantial and unproven, a perspective shared by a 2005 FBI-CIA memo, which was released the same day as the 28 pages. Former Senator Bob Graham, who was a member of the congressional inquiry, along with Terry Strada, the national chairwoman for 9/11 Families United for Justice Against Terrorism, have riposted that the matter of Saudi involvement is long from concluded and that more classified information needs to be issued.

    While the 28 pages may provide little closure on how the largest terrorist attack on US soil transpired, its publication is yet another indication that the primacy of Saudi Arabia as irreproachable Middle East ally is in question. The declassification of the 28 pages comes on the heels of other developments that have undermined the carefully manicured image of Saudi Arabia as stalwart and stable ally, such as: the signing of a nuclear accord with Iran in 2015- raising the prospect of increased cooperation with the kingdom’s chief rival; the distribution of a cache of Saudi foreign cables discussing internal matters, which includes monitoring its citizens and attempts to combat critical voices in the media abroad; the unverified court testimony of Zacharias Moussaoui (the “20th hijacker”) detailing potential Saudi governmental involvement in 9/11; a war in Yemen that has caused thousands of civilian deaths and led to a humanitarian crisis, and international concern over the execution of 47 individuals on terrorism charges.

    One consequence of these developments is the introduction of bipartisan legislation by members of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee to curtail American arms support to Saudi Arabia for use in its Yemen campaign. In another case, the U.S. House of Representatives only narrowly passed a bill allowing the transfer of cluster bombs to Saudi Arabia, evidence that lawmakers are beginning to approach this issue with greater care. Further, the U.S. Senate recently passed a bill that would allow the Saudi Arabian government to be held legally liable for any potential role in the 9/11 attacks, though a last-minute loophole in the bill will likely diminish its impact. Ongoing concerns continue to be expressed over the country’s funding of extremist groups and mosques worldwide. Following the massacre at an Orlando nightclub last month, for example, Hillary Clinton declared that Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries are apathetic toward their citizens’ financial support of violent extremism- not the first time the presumptive Democratic nominee singled out Saudi Arabia on the campaign trail in such a manner.

    Elsewhere relations with Saudi Arabia are undergoing a similar reappraisal. Last year Sweden decided not to renew a Saudi arms agreement maintained since 2005, largely from concern over the country’s human rights record. The United Kingdom withdrew a £5.9m bid for a prisons contract, after criticism of human rights abuses by both Tory and Labour officials. Belgium and the Netherlands have taken steps to end or limit arms sales to Saudi Arabia, while the EU passed a non-binding resolution for member countries to halt arm sales. The Canadian government proceeded with a controversial $15-billion arms deal (signed by the current government’s predecessor) only amidst a public outcry to annul it and a lawsuit arguing that the deal contravenes federal laws over prohibiting such sales to countries suspected of use against civilians or having a record of repeated human rights violations. Canada’s Foreign Affairs Minister Stéphane Dion, even while taking responsibility for pushing through the arms deal, recognized the public concern by noting that the matter of selling arms to Saudi Arabia may be a question best left to the electorate.

    Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister Adel al Jubeir may be correct in noting that “the surprise in the 28 pages is that there is no surprise,” but he would be hard-pressed to exhibit a similar lack of concern about the increased public scrutiny and shifting perceptions of Saudi Arabia’s role in the world. The Saudis instead have responded to the above developments with direct actions, threatened reprisals, and a spirited public relations campaign. The Saudi ambassador to Sweden was briefly recalled. The U.S. has been threatened with the selling of $750 billion worth of Saudi investments in this country, over the Senate’s 9/11 legal liability bill. In response to the Canadian arms deal imbroglio, Saudi Arabia defended its judicial system as one that “calls for preserving and protecting human rights,” even though Freedom House ranks it worst in all categories of its freedom index. Current Saudi state officials and ambassadors and former advisors have increasingly sought forcefully to defend their country’s actions and image to the public, referencing Saudi Arabia’s key role in combating international terrorism in alliance with the United States and United Nations. They seek to justify Saudi Arabia’s “Operation Decisive Storm” in Yemen as an effort to restore “legitimate order” and “combat a militia influenced by Iran.” This public relations campaign has been abetted by other attempts to promote a counter-narrative to voices critical of Saudi Arabia, including the use of PR firms to charm American policy-makers and journalists and the attempted censoring of voices critical of the country’s human rights record. In March 2016, the Saudi American Public Relations Affairs Committee (SAPRAC) was established, the first US-based lobbying group with the expressed task of working toward strengthening US-Saudi ties and highlighting opportunities for investment. “Vision 2030,” the plan promoted as an effort to diversify and modernize the Saudi economy that includes the partial privatization of the state-owned oil company Aramco, may reasonably be seen as part of this charm offensive, as bankers worldwide eye a piece of the prize.

    Answers about Saudi Arabia’s involvement in 9/11 may prove elusive and forever unknown. But more than ever, questions are being raised and subsequent actions are being taken in relation to Saudi Arabia, extending far beyond what’s contained in the 28 pages of fourteen years ago and portending a new realignment of the US and other western countries’ long-standing relationship with this Middle East power.

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Today’s News 22nd July 2016

  • The New Middle East: Exit America Enter Russia

    Submitted by Ghassan Kadi via The Saker,

    Is the genie finally out of the bottle?

    A myriad of seemingly unrelated events and loose ends are converging in a manner that points in the direction of a huge win for Russian diplomacy in the Middle East, and we only need to connect the dots to see this scenario unfolding.

    What dots, one might ask?

    Henry Kissinger made it law for America to protect Israel. In his shuttle diplomacy trips in the lead up to the Camp David agreement, Kissinger has basically removed the USSR from the position of a superpower and a key partner on the negotiating table between Arabs and the Israelis and reduced its role to zilch. The ensuing dismantling of the USSR and the emergence of the so-called “New World Order” meant that Israel was to maintain its military superiority.

    However, with the rise of Axis of Resistance in general and Hezbollah in particular, Israel’s technical military edge proved unable to provide Israel with any real security. As a matter of fact, it seems to have done just the opposite. Israel has never ever been under the kind of existential threat that it faces now, with an estimated hundred thousand Hezbollah missiles, if not more, poised to hit Israeli targets as far as Eilat.

    And because America had been such a biased supporter of Israel for so long, it has lost its stature as a non-partisan arbitrator and mediator. In reality therefore, whilst America tried as hard as possible to enable Israel to impose its own peace, under its own terms, in practice, it has not been able to provide Israel with any peace under anyone’s terms.

    Off to Syria.

    Syria has been deadlocked in a war for more than five years. The Russian intervention that commenced in late September 2015 took the conflict, for the first time, into a direction in which the Syrian Government and its allies gained the clear upper hand.

    Then, and in the height of the military operation, and seemingly just a tad before achieving and declaring victory, Russia suddenly declared a major pullout and eventually a ceasefire. Many questions were raised, and even the staunch and extremely savvy ally of Russia, Hezbollah chief Nasrallah himself has questioned publicly in a recent speech the rationale behind the Russian stand and asked: ”Who has benefited from the ceasefire?” Nasrallah was obviously referring to the fact that Al-Nusra Front and other groups have taken advantage of the ceasefire to bolster their positions and even to gain some territory in some regions.

    In as much as the Russian intervention in its speed, accuracy and effectiveness has stunned the world, especially NATO, so did the pullback and ceasefire. Why did President Putin suddenly decide to scale down the military offensive, was a question that many analysts asked and tried to make speculations about.

    Short-sighted analysts, especially those who love to hate Russia, found in this a golden opportunity to lash at Russia and accuse President Putin of backing off and letting Syria down. But would Putin truly back down after he had put his global political reputation on the line? Was he really expecting the Americans to come clean and work with him on identifying who is who on the ground? Would he back off after Russian lives were lost both in Syria and in the tragic jetliner crash in Sinai, and which was done in retaliation to Russia’s military action in Syria? Would Putin risk being seen in a negative way by his own people after he had risen to the level of a rescuer and hero? Last but not least, would Putin leave Turkey, and Erdogan specifically, “unpunished” after Turkey deliberately downed a Russian plane and killed its pilot?

    The collective and individual answer to all of the above questions is a categorical NO. So why did Putin do it then? There seemed to be no clear answer; at least not for a while.

    And of course, we cannot mention Turkey without allowing the train of events to stop at the Turkish station for a very thorough analysis.

    In my analysis of the failure of “War On Syria”, which effectively began to take shape over the last two years or so, and especially after the emergence of Daesh, I had been reiterating that different elements of the “Anti-Syrian Cocktail” who were bundled together, united only by their hatred for Syria and her President, have realized that they were unable to have their collective dream materialized. They thus resorted to pursuing their own individual dreams and/or to implement some contingency plans. In that context, among other things, Daesh declared mutiny on its former allies and captured oil fields in order to be able to self-finance.

    When Erdogan looked at Daesh, he could see a double-edged sword. And irrespective of politics, Erdogan’s fundamentalist ideology is not very different from that of Daesh, and according to this doctrine, putting everything else aside, Daesh members are regarded as brethren. Furthermore, the fact that Daesh and the Kurds were in conflict was something that Erdogan could not ignore. Erdogan’s fear of the Kurdish factor is very high, and the fact that America was helping some Kurdish factions has angered Erdogan to an extreme. America cannot be a friend of Turkey and the Kurds at the same time, Erdogan has said on many occasions, both directly and indirectly.

    At the same time, America was growing very frustrated with Erdogan, and in turn, played its own cat and mouse game within the Daesh-Kurdish-Turkish triangle; favouring any side at a time that was convenient and suitable for its agenda.

    But for Erdogan, the issue was becoming very critical. Turkey is now under attack with a string of explosions going off here and there; some purportedly perpetrated by Kurds and others by Daesh. Not only has Erdogan’s gamble in Syria failed, but he has brought the conflict home; at least partially, and the economic boom and the “zero problems” policy that crowned his early years of power were all getting eroded by the quagmire that Erdogan found himself in.

    To make it worse for Erdogan, after he downed Russia’s Su-24 in November 2015, he was expecting NATO’s support, but NATO’s response was clear and brief. He was told that he needed to sort out his own problems with Russia.

    He tried to use the refugees as a trump card, but this could not go far enough. Apart from the few billion dollars he was given by the EU, which is in relative terms a petty bribe, Erdogan was unable to even clinch Turkey’s longtime aspiration of becoming an EU member.

    Erdogan found himself cornered, abandoned, under attack, facing severe Russian sanctions and an economic slump. He needed an exit strategy; an exit from trouble and into a totally new era.

    In the meantime, Israeli PM Netanyahu made an unprecedented number of trips to Moscow. Why? Many asked.

    The dust has not even began to settle yet, but there are markers that indicate that we are about to see a huge shift in Middle Eastern politics, conflicts and alliances.

    We are now hearing formal Turkish statements accusing the USA of plotting the recent failed coup attempt. Turkey has even imposed a lockdown on Incirlik airbase, a NATO airbase, in which America stock piles nuclear weapons, and has even cut off power supplies to the base. This is tantamount to declaring mutiny on NATO. When Erdogan said that the coup was a “gift from God” to cleanse the army, he might as well have also said that it was a gift from God for him to show his resentment to the USA.

    We also hear of counter-rumours that Erdogan has staged the failed coup in order to cleanse the military from elements that are not loyal to him. Whilst this scenario cannot either be confirmed or discounted, Erdogan is not mincing either his words or his actions with his NATO boss the USA.

    It is important to note here that in the last few weeks, Erdogan and Netanyahu made up, and furthermore, the Turkish-Russian relationship was normalized. Erdogan has been seen to be making a turn, and perhaps a U-turn in regard to his policies in Syria, but for what ends?

    For anyone to make a decisive win in Syria, the city of Aleppo holds the key. Whoever takes full control of Aleppo will win the war. The Syrian-Russian coalition has the upper hand to win the battle of Aleppo, but at what civilian cost? The other way to win it is to bring Erdogan down to his knees; and this seems to be what has happened. If Erdogan seals Turkey’s borders, the terrorists will be doomed.

    If we were to connect the above main dots, ignoring many other minor dots which do not need to be discussed individually, we can only see a Middle Eastern Russian-brokered masterplan coming to fruition.

    What puts Russia in the position to be able to muster such a plan is the fact that Russia is highly respected and is on fairly good terms with all major players. After mending relationships with Turkey, Russia is now on very good terms not only with Turkey, but also with Syria, Israel and Iran. The foolhardy foreign American policies in the Middle East have turned America into a force that cannot be trusted even by its own allies.

    Putin is adamant on fighting terrorism. Whether he is able to do this or not is another story, but strategically speaking, he knows well that the military fight against terrorism cannot be won, let alone properly conducted, if other players in the region are in a state of conflict.

    According to this analysis, we are on the verge of seeing a Russian plan unfolding, a plan that will not only form a foundation for ending the “War On Syria”, but also one that will seek an Arab/Israeli settlement.

    The plan will have to be based on a win-win situation for all parties involved. The Saudis (and Qataris) will be the only losers. They will probably be left out in the cold and hung to dry. No one really wants to or needs to appease them any longer. Their clout is shrinking, and so are their resources. If anything, the war on terror, if it takes form under a Russian umbrella, may need to confront Al-Saud’s sponsorship to the spread of religious radicalism.

    The avalanche of events has started, and as the USA is being shown the exit door by its closest allies, Russia is coming in as the only power that has the ability of resolving long standing niggling issues and cleaning up America’s mess.

  • Are Leftists Planning A Coup On 'President' Trump? "Voters Must Stop Him Before Military Has To"

    Submitted by Mac Slavo via SHTFPlan.com,

    How far will they go to destroy this country? Liberals and globalists are already plotting several moves ahead.

    If Donald Trump beats Hillary, they are already contemplating a Plan B.

    In a  op-ed, L.A. Times. writer James Kirchick dangles the ambiguous but ominous threat, “If Trump wins, a coup isn’t impossible here in the U.S.”

    It basically hints that a military overthrow of a Trump Presidency might be coming in the future, and would then be justified by horrific dictatorial acts that hordes of screaming leftists have been warning about all this time:

    From the L.A. Times:

    Americans viewing the recent failed coup attempt in Turkey as some exotic foreign news story — the latest, violent yet hardly unusual political development to occur in a region constantly beset by turmoil — should pause to consider that the prospect of similar instability would not be unfathomable in this country if Donald Trump were to win the presidency.

    Naturally, in this scenario, Trump would be quick to commit war crimes (as Kirchick and many others see it).

    What if his presidency is so dangerously unconstitutional and misguided that a military intervention will be necessary to take the country back?

    In their quest to stop Trump at all costs, many of his opponents are already prepared to take things that far. That is telling, and very chilling indeed.

    Throughout the campaign, Trump has repeatedly bragged about ordering soldiers to commit war crimes, and has dismissed the possibility that he would face any resistance. “They won’t refuse,” he told Fox News’ Bret Baierearlier this year. “They’re not gonna refuse me. Believe me.”  When Baier insisted that such orders are “illegal,” Trump replied, “I’m a leader. I’ve always been a leader. I’ve never had any problem leading people. If I say do it, they’re going to do it.”

     

    Try to imagine, then, a situation in which Trump commanded our military to do something stupid, illegal or irrational.

     

    […]

     

    If this scenario sounds implausible, consider that Trump has normalized so many once-outrageous things — from open racism to blatant lying. Needless to say, such dystopian situations are unimaginable under a President Hillary Clinton, who, whatever her faults, would never contemplate ordering a bombing run or — heaven forbid — a nuclear strike on a country just because its leader slighted her small hands at a summit. Rubio might detest her, but he cannot honestly say that Clinton, a former secretary of State, should not be trusted with the nation’s nuclear codes.

     

    Trump is not only patently unfit to be president, but a danger to America and the world. Voters must stop him before the military has to.   

    The veiled threat can’t be dismissed just because it is misguided or vague.

    Should Donald Trump take it as a threat? Is his life in danger?

    What happens if voters don’t make the choice these people think is the right one?

    Glenn Beck was suspended from air for a week for allow a guest to make similar comments that hinted at ‘taking Trump out.’

    Discussing a potential Donald Trump presidency, Thor lamented that impeachment would likely be off the table.

     

    “If Congress won’t remove him from office, what patriot will step up and do that if, if, he oversteps his mandate as president, his constitutional-granted authority, I should say, as president,” Thor said. “If he oversteps that, how do we get him out of office? And I don’t think there is a legal means available. I think it will be a terrible, terrible position the American people will be in to get Trump out of office because you won’t be able to do it through Congress.”

    There is a very real and very potent anger fomenting across our country. Though there are good reasons for it, most of it is misdirected, and 2016 has proven to be open season for attacks of all kind against Trump and his supporters.

    Violence has trailed his campaign as passionate leftists stop at nothing to defy his controversial policies on immigration and the rest of it.

    The rule of law is slipping away, and certain sectors of the establishment love the chaos is will bring.

  • Obama's America?

    Presented with no comment…

     

    Source: MichaelPRamirez.com

  • Full Text Of Donald Trump's Convention Speech

    Here is the full text of Donald Trump's prepared remarks as delivered at the Republican National Convention.

    * * *

    Friends, delegates and fellow Americans: I humbly and gratefully accept your nomination for the presidency of the United States.

    Together, we will lead our party back to the White House, and we will lead our country back to safety, prosperity, and peace. We will be a country of generosity and warmth. But we will also be a country of law and order.

    Our Convention occurs at a moment of crisis for our nation. The attacks on our police, and the terrorism in our cities, threaten our very way of life. Any politician who does not grasp this danger is not fit to lead our country.

    Americans watching this address tonight have seen the recent images of violence in our streets and the chaos in our communities. Many have witnessed this violence personally, some have even been its victims.

    I have a message for all of you: the crime and violence that today afflicts our nation will soon come to an end. Beginning on January 20th 2017, safety will be restored.

    The most basic duty of government is to defend the lives of its own citizens. Any government that fails to do so is a government unworthy to lead.

    It is finally time for a straightforward assessment of the state of our nation.

    I will present the facts plainly and honestly. We cannot afford to be so politically correct anymore.

    So if you want to hear the corporate spin, the carefully-crafted lies, and the media myths the Democrats are holding their convention next week.

    But here, at our convention, there will be no lies. We will honor the American people with the truth, and nothing else.

    Decades of progress made in bringing down crime are now being reversed by this Administration’s rollback of criminal enforcement.

    Homicides last year increased by 17% in America’s fifty largest cities. That’s the largest increase in 25 years. In our nation’s capital, killings have risen by 50 percent. They are up nearly 60% in nearby Baltimore.

    In the President’s hometown of Chicago, more than 2,000 have been the victims of shootings this year alone. And more than 3,600 have been killed in the Chicago area since he took office.

    The number of police officers killed in the line of duty has risen by almost 50% compared to this point last year. Nearly 180,000 illegal immigrants with criminal records, ordered deported from our country, are tonight roaming free to threaten peaceful citizens.

    The number of new illegal immigrant families who have crossed the border so far this year already exceeds the entire total from 2015. They are being released by the tens of thousands into our communities with no regard for the impact on public safety or resources.

    One such border-crosser was released and made his way to Nebraska. There, he ended the life of an innocent young girl named Sarah Root. She was 21 years-old, and was killed the day after graduating from college with a 4.0 Grade Point Average. Her killer was then released a second time, and he is now a fugitive from the law.

    I’ve met Sarah’s beautiful family. But to this Administration, their amazing daughter was just one more American life that wasn’t worth protecting. One more child to sacrifice on the altar of open borders. What about our economy?

    Again, I will tell you the plain facts that have been edited out of your nightly news and your morning newspaper: Nearly Four in 10 African-American children are living in poverty, while 58% of African American youth are not employed. 2 million more Latinos are in poverty today than when the President took his oath of office less than eight years ago. Another 14 million people have left the workforce entirely.

    Household incomes are down more than $4,000 since the year 2000. Our manufacturing trade deficit has reached an all-time high – nearly $800 billion in a single year. The budget is no better.

    President Obama has doubled our national debt to more than $19 trillion, and growing. Yet, what do we have to show for it? Our roads and bridges are falling apart, our airports are in Third World condition, and forty-three million Americans are on food stamps.

    Now let us consider the state of affairs abroad.

    Not only have our citizens endured domestic disaster, but they have lived through one international humiliation after another. We all remember the images of our sailors being forced to their knees by their Iranian captors at gunpoint.

    This was just prior to the signing of the Iran deal, which gave back to Iran $150 billion and gave us nothing – it will go down in history as one of the worst deals ever made. Another humiliation came when president Obama drew a red line in Syria – and the whole world knew it meant nothing.

    In Libya, our consulate – the symbol of American prestige around the globe – was brought down in flames. America is far less safe – and the world is far less stable – than when Obama made the decision to put Hillary Clinton in charge of America’s foreign policy.

    I am certain it is a decision he truly regrets. Her bad instincts and her bad judgment – something pointed out by Bernie Sanders – are what caused the disasters unfolding today. Let’s review the record. In 2009, pre-Hillary, ISIS was not even on the map.

    Libya was cooperating. Egypt was peaceful. Iraq was seeing a reduction in violence. Iran was being choked by sanctions. Syria was under control. After four years of Hillary Clinton, what do we have? ISIS has spread across the region, and the world. Libya is in ruins, and our Ambassador and his staff were left helpless to die at the hands of savage killers. Egypt was turned over to the radical Muslim brotherhood, forcing the military to retake control. Iraq is in chaos.

    Iran is on the path to nuclear weapons. Syria is engulfed in a civil war and a refugee crisis that now threatens the West. After fifteen years of wars in the Middle East, after trillions of dollars spent and thousands of lives lost, the situation is worse than it has ever been before.

    This is the legacy of Hillary Clinton: death, destruction and weakness.

    But Hillary Clinton’s legacy does not have to be America’s legacy. The problems we face now – poverty and violence at home, war and destruction abroad – will last only as long as we continue relying on the same politicians who created them. A change in leadership is required to change these outcomes. Tonight, I will share with you my plan of action for America.

    The most important difference between our plan and that of our opponents, is that our plan will put America First. Americanism, not globalism, will be our credo. As long as we are led by politicians who will not put America First, then we can be assured that other nations will not treat America with respect. This will all change in 2017.

    The American People will come first once again. My plan will begin with safety at home – which means safe neighborhoods, secure borders, and protection from terrorism. There can be no prosperity without law and order. On the economy, I will outline reforms to add millions of new jobs and trillions in new wealth that can be used to rebuild America.

    A number of these reforms that I will outline tonight will be opposed by some of our nation’s most powerful special interests. That is because these interests have rigged our political and economic system for their exclusive benefit.

    Big business, elite media and major donors are lining up behind the campaign of my opponent because they know she will keep our rigged system in place. They are throwing money at her because they have total control over everything she does. She is their puppet, and they pull the strings.

    That is why Hillary Clinton’s message is that things will never change. My message is that things have to change – and they have to change right now. Every day I wake up determined to deliver for the people I have met all across this nation that have been neglected, ignored, and abandoned.

    I have visited the laid-off factory workers, and the communities crushed by our horrible and unfair trade deals. These are the forgotten men and women of our country. People who work hard but no longer have a voice.

    I AM YOUR VOICE.

    I have embraced crying mothers who have lost their children because our politicians put their personal agendas before the national good. I have no patience for injustice, no tolerance for government incompetence, no sympathy for leaders who fail their citizens.

    When innocent people suffer, because our political system lacks the will, or the courage, or the basic decency to enforce our laws – or worse still, has sold out to some corporate lobbyist for cash – I am not able to look the other way.

    And when a Secretary of State illegally stores her emails on a private server, deletes 33,000 of them so the authorities can’t see her crime, puts our country at risk, lies about it in every different form and faces no consequence – I know that corruption has reached a level like never before.

    When the FBI Director says that the Secretary of State was “extremely careless” and “negligent,” in handling our classified secrets, I also know that these terms are minor compared to what she actually did. They were just used to save her from facing justice for her terrible crimes.

    In fact, her single greatest accomplishment may be committing such an egregious crime and getting away with it – especially when others have paid so dearly. When that same Secretary of State rakes in millions of dollars trading access and favors to special interests and foreign powers I know the time for action has come.

    I have joined the political arena so that the powerful can no longer beat up on people that cannot defend themselves. Nobody knows the system better than me, which is why I alone can fix it. I have seen firsthand how the system is rigged against our citizens, just like it was rigged against Bernie Sanders – he never had a chance.

    But his supporters will join our movement, because we will fix his biggest issue: trade. Millions of Democrats will join our movement because we are going to fix the system so it works for all Americans. In this cause, I am proud to have at my side the next Vice President of the United States: Governor Mike Pence of Indiana.

    We will bring the same economic success to America that Mike brought to Indiana. He is a man of character and accomplishment. He is the right man for the job. The first task for our new Administration will be to liberate our citizens from the crime and terrorism and lawlessness that threatens their communities.

    America was shocked to its core when our police officers in Dallas were brutally executed. In the days after Dallas, we have seen continued threats and violence against our law enforcement officials. Law officers have been shot or killed in recent days in Georgia, Missouri, Wisconsin, Kansas, Michigan and Tennessee.

    On Sunday, more police were gunned down in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. Three were killed, and four were badly injured. An attack on law enforcement is an attack on all Americans. I have a message to every last person threatening the peace on our streets and the safety of our police: when I take the oath of office next year, I will restore law and order our country.

    I will work with, and appoint, the best prosecutors and law enforcement officials in the country to get the job done. In this race for the White House, I am the Law And Order candidate. The irresponsible rhetoric of our President, who has used the pulpit of the presidency to divide us by race and color, has made America a more dangerous environment for everyone.

    This Administration has failed America’s inner cities. It’s failed them on education. It’s failed them on jobs. It’s failed them on crime. It’s failed them at every level.

    When I am President, I will work to ensure that all of our kids are treated equally, and protected equally.

    Every action I take, I will ask myself: does this make life better for young Americans in Baltimore, Chicago, Detroit, Ferguson who have as much of a right to live out their dreams as any other child America?

    To make life safe in America, we must also address the growing threats we face from outside America: we are going to defeat the barbarians of ISIS. Once again, France is the victim of brutal Islamic terrorism.

    Men, women and children viciously mowed down. Lives ruined. Families ripped apart. A nation in mourning.

    The damage and devastation that can be inflicted by Islamic radicals has been over and over – at the World Trade Center, at an office party in San Bernardino, at the Boston Marathon, and a military recruiting center in Chattanooga, Tennessee.

    Only weeks ago, in Orlando, Florida, 49 wonderful Americans were savagely murdered by an Islamic terrorist. This time, the terrorist targeted our LGBT community. As your President, I will do everything in my power to protect our LGBT citizens from the violence and oppression of a hateful foreign ideology. To protect us from terrorism, we need to focus on three things.

    We must have the best intelligence gathering operation in the world. We must abandon the failed policy of nation building and regime change that Hillary Clinton pushed in Iraq, Libya, Egypt and Syria. Instead, we must work with all of our allies who share our goal of destroying ISIS and stamping out Islamic terror.

    This includes working with our greatest ally in the region, the State of Israel. Lastly, we must immediately suspend immigration from any nation that has been compromised by terrorism until such time as proven vetting mechanisms have been put in place.

    My opponent has called for a radical 550% increase in Syrian refugees on top of existing massive refugee flows coming into our country under President Obama. She proposes this despite the fact that there’s no way to screen these refugees in order to find out who they are or where they come from. I only want to admit individuals into our country who will support our values and love our people.

    Anyone who endorses violence, hatred or oppression is not welcome in our country and never will be.

    Decades of record immigration have produced lower wages and higher unemployment for our citizens, especially for African-American and Latino workers. We are going to have an immigration system that works, but one that works for the American people.

    On Monday, we heard from three parents whose children were killed by illegal immigrants Mary Ann Mendoza, Sabine Durden, and Jamiel Shaw. They are just three brave representatives of many thousands. Of all my travels in this country, nothing has affected me more deeply than the time I have spent with the mothers and fathers who have lost their children to violence spilling across our border.

    These families have no special interests to represent them. There are no demonstrators to protest on their behalf. My opponent will never meet with them, or share in their pain. Instead, my opponent wants Sanctuary Cities. But where was sanctuary for Kate Steinle? Where was Sanctuary for the children of Mary Ann, Sabine and Jamiel? Where was sanctuary for all the other Americans who have been so brutally murdered, and who have suffered so horribly?

    These wounded American families have been alone. But they are alone no longer. Tonight, this candidate and this whole nation stand in their corner to support them, to send them our love, and to pledge in their honor that we will save countless more families from suffering the same awful fate.

    We are going to build a great border wall to stop illegal immigration, to stop the gangs and the violence, and to stop the drugs from pouring into our communities. I have been honored to receive the endorsement of America’s Border Patrol Agents, and will work directly with them to protect the integrity of our lawful immigration system.

    By ending catch-and-release on the border, we will stop the cycle of human smuggling and violence. Illegal border crossings will go down. Peace will be restored. By enforcing the rules for the millions who overstay their visas, our laws will finally receive the respect they deserve.

    Tonight, I want every American whose demands for immigration security have been denied – and every politician who has denied them – to listen very closely to the words I am about to say.

    On January 21st of 2017, the day after I take the oath of office, Americans will finally wake up in a country where the laws of the United States are enforced. We are going to be considerate and compassionate to everyone.

    But my greatest compassion will be for our own struggling citizens. My plan is the exact opposite of the radical and dangerous immigration policy of Hillary Clinton. Americans want relief from uncontrolled immigration. Communities want relief.

    Yet Hillary Clinton is proposing mass amnesty, mass immigration, and mass lawlessness. Her plan will overwhelm your schools and hospitals, further reduce your jobs and wages, and make it harder for recent immigrants to escape from poverty.

    I have a different vision for our workers. It begins with a new, fair trade policy that protects our jobs and stands up to countries that cheat. It’s been a signature message of my campaign from day one, and it will be a signature feature of my presidency from the moment I take the oath of office.

    I have made billions of dollars in business making deals – now I’m going to make our country rich again. I am going to turn our bad trade agreements into great ones. America has lost nearly-one third of its manufacturing jobs since 1997, following the enactment of disastrous trade deals supported by Bill and Hillary Clinton.

    Remember, it was Bill Clinton who signed NAFTA, one of the worst economic deals ever made by our country.

    Never again.

    I am going to bring our jobs back to Ohio and to America – and I am not going to let companies move to other countries, firing their employees along the way, without consequences.

    My opponent, on the other hand, has supported virtually every trade agreement that has been destroying our middle class. She supported NAFTA, and she supported China’s entrance into the World Trade Organization – another one of her husband’s colossal mistakes.

    She supported the job killing trade deal with South Korea. She has supported the Trans-Pacific Partnership. The TPP will not only destroy our manufacturing, but it will make America subject to the rulings of foreign governments. I pledge to never sign any trade agreement that hurts our workers, or that diminishes our freedom and independence. Instead, I will make individual deals with individual countries.

    No longer will we enter into these massive deals, with many countries, that are thousands of pages long – and which no one from our country even reads or understands. We are going to enforce all trade violations, including through the use of taxes and tariffs, against any country that cheats.

    This includes stopping China’s outrageous theft of intellectual property, along with their illegal product dumping, and their devastating currency manipulation. Our horrible trade agreements with China and many others, will be totally renegotiated. That includes renegotiating NAFTA to get a much better deal for America – and we’ll walk away if we don’t get the deal that we want. We are going to start building and making things again.

    Next comes the reform of our tax laws, regulations and energy rules. While Hillary Clinton plans a massive tax increase, I have proposed the largest tax reduction of any candidate who has declared for the presidential race this year – Democrat or Republican. Middle-income Americans will experience profound relief, and taxes will be simplified for everyone.

    America is one of the highest-taxed nations in the world. Reducing taxes will cause new companies and new jobs to come roaring back into our country. Then we are going to deal with the issue of regulation, one of the greatest job-killers of them all. Excessive regulation is costing our country as much as $2 trillion a year, and we will end it. We are going to lift the restrictions on the production of American energy. This will produce more than $20 trillion in job creating economic activity over the next four decades.

    My opponent, on the other hand, wants to put the great miners and steel workers of our country out of work – that will never happen when I am President. With these new economic policies, trillions of dollars will start flowing into our country.

    This new wealth will improve the quality of life for all Americans – We will build the roads, highways, bridges, tunnels, airports, and the railways of tomorrow. This, in turn, will create millions more jobs. We will rescue kids from failing schools by helping their parents send them to a safe school of their choice.

    My opponent would rather protect education bureaucrats than serve American children. We will repeal and replace disastrous Obamacare. You will be able to choose your own doctor again. And we will fix TSA at the airports! We will completely rebuild our depleted military, and the countries that we protect, at a massive loss, will be asked to pay their fair share.

    We will take care of our great Veterans like they have never been taken care of before. My opponent dismissed the VA scandal as being not widespread – one more sign of how out of touch she really is. We are going to ask every Department Head in government to provide a list of wasteful spending projects that we can eliminate in my first 100 days. The politicians have talked about it, I’m going to do it. We are also going to appoint justices to the United States Supreme Court who will uphold our laws and our Constitution.

    The replacement for Justice Scalia will be a person of similar views and principles. This will be one of the most important issues decided by this election. My opponent wants to essentially abolish the 2nd amendment. I, on the other hand, received the early and strong endorsement of the National Rifle Association and will protect the right of all Americans to keep their families safe.

    At this moment, I would like to thank the evangelical community who have been so good to me and so supportive. You have so much to contribute to our politics, yet our laws prevent you from speaking your minds from your own pulpits.

    An amendment, pushed by Lyndon Johnson, many years ago, threatens religious institutions with a loss of their tax-exempt status if they openly advocate their political views.

    I am going to work very hard to repeal that language and protect free speech for all Americans. We can accomplish these great things, and so much else – all we need to do is start believing in ourselves and in our country again. It is time to show the whole world that America Is Back – bigger, and better and stronger than ever before.

    In this journey, I'm so lucky to have at my side my wife Melania and my wonderful children, Don, Ivanka, Eric, Tiffany, and Barron: you will always be my greatest source of pride and joy. My Dad, Fred Trump, was the smartest and hardest working man I ever knew. I wonder sometimes what he’d say if he were here to see this tonight.

    It’s because of him that I learned, from my youngest age, to respect the dignity of work and the dignity of working people. He was a guy most comfortable in the company of bricklayers, carpenters, and electricians and I have a lot of that in me also. Then there’s my mother, Mary. She was strong, but also warm and fair-minded. She was a truly great mother. She was also one of the most honest and charitable people I have ever known, and a great judge of character.

    To my sisters Mary Anne and Elizabeth, my brother Robert and my late brother Fred, I will always give you my love you are most special to me. I have loved my life in business.

    But now, my sole and exclusive mission is to go to work for our country – to go to work for all of you. It’s time to deliver a victory for the American people. But to do that, we must break free from the petty politics of the past.

    America is a nation of believers, dreamers, and strivers that is being led by a group of censors, critics, and cynics.

    Remember: all of the people telling you that you can’t have the country you want, are the same people telling you that I wouldn’t be standing here tonight. No longer can we rely on those elites in media, and politics, who will say anything to keep a rigged system in place.

    Instead, we must choose to Believe In America. History is watching us now.

    It’s waiting to see if we will rise to the occasion, and if we will show the whole world that America is still free and independent and strong.

    My opponent asks her supporters to recite a three-word loyalty pledge. It reads: “I’m With Her”. I choose to recite a different pledge.

    My pledge reads: “I’M WITH YOU – THE AMERICAN PEOPLE.”

    I am your voice.

    So to every parent who dreams for their child, and every child who dreams for their future, I say these words to you tonight: I’m With You, and I will fight for you, and I will win for you.

    To all Americans tonight, in all our cities and towns, I make this promise: We Will Make America Strong Again.

    We Will Make America Proud Again.

    We Will Make America Safe Again.

    And We Will Make America Great Again.

    THANK YOU.

     

  • WSJ Reporter's "Shocking" Discovery: DHS Can Confiscate Any Device Along The Border Without Suspicion

    A WSJ reporter who covers the Middle East had a very “troubling” close-encounter with the US police superstate.

    Maria Abi-Habib was detained by federal agents at Los Angeles International Airport, who demanded to confiscate her two cell phones, and was shocked to learn that border agents have the authority to do that. The reporter has both U.S. and Lebanese citizenship and was traveling on an American passport. She was flying into Los Angeles from Beirut last Thursday when she taken out of line at immigration.

    “They grilled me for an hour,” she wrote. “I answered jovially, because I’ve had enough high-level security experiences to know that being annoyed or hostile will work against you.” Abi-Habib said that the agents then asked for her cellphones in order to “collect information.”

    “That is where I drew the line,” Abi-Habib wrote. “I told her I had First Amendment rights as a journalist she couldn’t violate and I was protected under.”

    According to Abi-Habib, the agent then presented a DHS document which explained that the government has the right to confiscate phones within 100 miles from U.S. borders: the document “basically says the US government has the right to seize my phones and my rights as a US citizen (or citizen of the world) go out the window.” 

    She posted a photo of this tearsheet on the Facebook post.  The same document is also available on the website of the US Customs and Border Patrol and can be found at the following link. The key section is the following:

    You’re receiving this sheet because your electronic device(s) has been detained for further examination, which may include copying. You will receive a written receipt (Form 6051-D) that details what item(s) are being detained, who at CBP will be your point of contact, and the contact information (including telephone number) you provide to facilitate the return of your property within a reasonable time upon completion of the examination.

     

    The CBP officer who approved the detention will speak with you and explain the process, and provide his or her name and contact telephone number if you have any concerns. Some airport locations have dedicated Passenger Service Managers who are available in addition to the onsite supervisor to address any concerns.

    More importantly, one can not refuse to hand over any demanded electronic device to the customs agent, as “collection of this information is mandatory at the time that CBP or ICE seeks to copy information from the electronic device. Failure to provide information to assist CBP or ICE in the copying of information from the electronic device may result in its detention and/or seizure.”

     

    Here, Abi-Habib did something the DHS did not expect: “I called their bluff” she says, as she refused to hand over her two cell phones.   

    “You’ll have to call The Wall Street Journal’s lawyers, as those phones are the property of WSJ,” she said.

    This led to the agent accusing her of “hindering the investigation.” The agent left to speak with her supervisor, returning 30 minutes later to tell Abi-Habib that she was free to go. “I have no idea why they wanted my phones,” she wrote. “It could have been a way for them to download my contacts. Or maybe they expect me of terrorism or sympathizing with terrorists.”

    “Why I was eventually spared, we do not know and we are writing a letter contesting DHS’ treatment of me,” Abi-Habib wrote. “I assume they avoided seizing my phones forcefully because they knew we would make a stink about it and have a big name behind us — WSJ.”

    According to CNN, DHS later acknowledged the incident occurred, confirming the story, and explaining Abi-Habib’s shock at the realization of being singled-out by the police state.

    Except…

    None of this is actually new. 

    The policy was set in 2013 when DHS reviewed its own powers and concluded that its agents were clear to search at will.  “Imposing a requirement that officers have reasonable suspicion in order to conduct a border search of an electronic device would be operationally harmful without concomitant civil rights/civil liberties benefits,” it wrote.

    In fact we wrote about precisely this over three years ago, in February 2013, in “Goodbye Fourth Amendment: Homeland Security Affirms “Suspicionless” Confiscation Of Devices Along Border.” As a reminder, this is what we said:

    Slowly but surely the administration is making sure that both the US constitution, and its various amendments, become a thing of the past. In the name of national security, of course. And while until now it was the First and Second amendments that were the target of the administration’s ongoing efforts to eavesdrop on anyone, all the time, in order to decide who may be a domestic terrorist and thus fit for ‘droning’, coupled with an aggressive push to disarm and curtail the propagation of weapons in what some perceive is nothing more than an attempt to take away a population’s one recourse to defend itself against a tyrannical government, the time may be coming to say goodbye to the Fourth amendment – the right to be free from unreasonable searches and seizures – next. But only in close proximity to the border at first. As it turns out the Department of Homeland Security’s civil rights watchdog has concluded that travelers along the nation’s borders may have their electronics seized and the contents of those devices examined for any reason whatsoever — all in the name of national security.

    Who was at fault for this?  As it turns out, first Bush and then Obama.

    The President George W. Bush administration first announced the suspicionless, electronics search rules in 2008. The President Barack Obama administration followed up with virtually the same rules a year later. Between 2008 and 2010, 6,500 persons had their electronic devices searched along the U.S. border, according to DHS data.

     

    What does this decision mean in principle: According to legal precedent, the Fourth Amendment — the right to be free from unreasonable searches and seizures — does not apply along the border. By the way, the government contends the Fourth-Amendment-Free Zone stretches 100 miles inland from the nation’s actual border.

    Finally, why 100 miles?

    Because as the attached map shows, the “borders” in question include maritime zones as well, and with the bulk of the US population concentrated along the coasts, the “constitution free” zone of the US includes virtually everyone living on the two seaboards: some 66% of the US population.

     

    We even laid out a case study of what happened to a perfectly innocent man:

    A lawsuit the ACLU brought on the issue concerns a New York man whose laptop was seized along the Canadian border in 2010 and returned 11 days later after his attorney complained. At an Amtrak inspection point, Pascal Abidor showed his U.S. passport to a federal agent. He was ordered to move to the cafe car, where they removed his laptop from his luggage and “ordered Mr. Abidor to enter his password,” according to the lawsuit.

     

    Agents asked him about pictures they found on his laptop, which included Hamas and Hezbollah rallies. He explained that he was earning a doctoral degree at a Canadian university on the topic of the modern history of Shiites in Lebanon. He was handcuffed and then jailed for three hours while the authorities looked through his computer while numerous agents questioned him, according to the suit, which is pending in New York federal court.

    As we concluded then: “First they came for your iPad, and nobody said anything…”

    Over three year later, they came for a very stunned Maria Abi-Habib’s cell phones and she said something, because it is one thing to read about it one some website, it is something totally different to go through it in person.

    * * *

    Amusingly, the confusion stretched to the very top.

    The Wall Street Journal’s editor in chief, Gerard Baker, told CNN that the paper is “disturbed by the serious incident involving Abi-Habib.”

    “We have been working to learn more about these events, but the notion that Customs and Border Protection agents would stop and question one of our journalists in connection with her reporting and seek to search her cell phones is unacceptable,” Baker said in a statement to CNNMoney. 

    Actually, Gerard, it’s the law and has been for years. Even this little “fringe tinfoil blog” reported on it while you were focusing on far greater matters. Maybe now that you are familiar with just what the US police state is capable of doing, you will write an article decrying it?

    We doubt it.

    * * *

    But the absolute in irony came, when CNN quoted Gregory T. Nojeim, a lawyer at the Center for Democracy & Technology, who “is concerned” about these extraordinary powers.  “They should have to have reasonable suspicion when they do this,” he said.

    They should yes, but they don’t. And if you “lawyers” were actually doing your job and protecting civil liberties, this would not have happened. Of course, we realize that is asking far too much.

    * * *

    Her full Facebook post is reposted below in its entirety. Highlights ours.

    Dear friends,

    I wanted to share a troubling experience I had with the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), in the hopes it may help you protect your private information. I was born a US citizen and was traveling on my American passport.

    I landed at LA airport last Thursday to attend a wedding. I was standing in line for immigration when a DHS officer said “oh, there you are.” I was puzzled. “I was trying to recognize you from your picture. I’m here to help you get through the line.”

    I asked a few questions, and she said that DHS had decided to pick me up when my name came in on the flight manifest (this is not uncommon, for countries to share passenger names). She didn’t say whether the flight manifest was sent from Beirut, where I started my trip, or Frankfurt, where I hopped onto my connecting flight to LAX. The DHS agent went on to say she was there to help me navigate immigration because I am a journalist with The Wall Street Journal and have traveled to many dangerous places that are on the US’ radar for terrorism. She independently knew who I worked for and my Twitter account, countries I’d reported from (like Iraq) and even recent articles I’d written — I told her nothing about myself.

    This didn’t seem out of the ordinary at first — I’ve had US Immigration officials tell me my name is on a special list that allows me to circumvent the questioning most would receive if they had a similar travel profile or internet print (talking to members of known terrorist groups). I travel to the US about twice a year and have always remarked on how smooth my experiences at Customs/Immigration are.

    But after pushing me to the front of a very long line at immigration, she then escorted me to the luggage belt, where I collected my suitcase, and then she took me to a special section of LAX airport. Another customs agent joined her at that point and they grilled me for an hour – asking me about the years I lived in the US, when I moved to Beirut and why, who lives at my in-laws’ house in LA and numbers for the groom and bride whose wedding I was attending. I answered jovially, because I’ve had enough high-level security experiences to know that being annoyed or hostile will work against you.

    But then she asked me for my two cellphones. I asked her what she wanted from them.

    “We want to collect information” she said, refusing to specify what kind.

    And that is where I drew the line — I told her I had First Amendment rights as a journalist she couldn’t violate and I was protected under. I explained I had to protect my sources of information.

    “Did you just admit you collect information for foreign governments?” she asked, her tone turning hostile.

    “No, that’s exactly not what I just said,” I replied, explaining again why I would not hand over my phones.

    She handed me a DHS document, a photo of which I’ve attached. It basically says the US government has the right to seize my phones and my rights as a US citizen (or citizen of the world) go out the window. This law applies at any point of entry into the US, whether naval, air or land and extends for 100 miles into the US from the border or formal points of entry. So, all of NY city for instance. If they forgot to ask you at JFK airport for your phones, but you’re having a drink in Manhattan the next day, you technically fall under this authority. And because they are acting under the pretense to protect the US from terrorism, you have to give it up.

    So I called their bluff.

    “You’ll have to call The Wall Street Journal’s lawyers, as those phones are the property of WSJ,” I told her, calmly.

    She accused me of hindering the investigation – a dangerous accusation as at that point, they can use force. I put my hands up and said I’d done nothing but be cooperative, but when it comes to my phones, she would have to call WSJ’s lawyers.

    She said she had to speak to her supervisor about my lack of cooperation and would return. I was left with the second DHS officer who’d been there since we left the baggage claim area.

    The female officer returned 30 minutes later and said I was free to go. I have no idea why they wanted my phones — it could have been a way for them to download my contacts. Or maybe they expect me of terrorism or sympathizing with terrorists — although my profile wouldn’t fit, considering I am named Maria Teresa, and for a variety of other reasons including my small child.

    I’ve since done some research and spoken to an encryption expert. This is the information I’ve gleaned which I hope may help those reading:

    1) My rights as a journalist or US citizen do not apply at the border, as explained above, since legislation was quietly passed in 2013 giving DHS very broad powers (I researched this since the incident). This legislation also circumvents the Fourth Amendment that protects Americans’ privacy and prevents searches and seizures without a proper warrant.

    2) Always use encryption, but even this cannot keep you 100% safe. If you are contacting someone about a sensitive matter, use an application like Signal. But if DHS seizes your phone, they can see you’ve been speaking to that person, although if you erase your chats, they won’t see what you spoke about.

    3) Never download anything or even open a link from a friend or source that looks suspicious. This may be malware, meaning that they have downloaded software on your phone that will be able to circumvent the powers of encryption. Don’t leave your phone unattended for the same reasons – they can just open it up and download malware.

    4) Travel “naked” as one encryption expert told me. If any government wants your information, they will get it no matter what. Remember the San Bernardino shooter? Apple refused to comply, so the US got the information by paying an Israeli company $1 million to unlock the shooter’s phone. So if you have something extra sensitive on your device – phone or laptop – do not travel with it and instead use your sim card in a clean phone. And for sensitive numbers, write them on a piece of paper you can somehow secure and then restore the factory settings on your phone – which seems to be the only way of wiping it clean 100%.

    Sorry for the long post. I hope this helps.

  • The Real Reason Pharma Companies Hate Medical Marijuana (Spoiler Alert: It Works)

    Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

    Former Federal Judge Nancy Gertner was appointed to the federal bench by Bill Clinton in 1994. She presided over trials for 17 years. And Sunday, she stood before a crowd at The Aspen Ideas Festival to denounce most punishments that she imposed.

     

    Among 500 sanctions that she handed down, “80 percent I believe were unfair and disproportionate,” she said. “I left the bench in 2011 to join the Harvard faculty to write about those stories––to write about how it came to pass that I was obliged to sentence people to terms that, frankly, made no sense under any philosophy.”

     

    She went on to savage the War on Drugs at greater length. “This is a war that I saw destroy lives,” she said. “It eliminated a generation of African American men, covered our racism in ostensibly neutral guidelines and mandatory minimums… and created an intergenerational problem––although I wasn’t on the bench long enough to see this, we know that the sons and daughters of the people we sentenced are in trouble, and are in trouble with the criminal justice system.”

     

    – From the post: Federal Judge of 17 Years Repents – Compares Damage Done by “War on Drugs” to Destruction of World War II

    Whenever an irrational and inhumane law remains on the books far longer than any thinking person would consider appropriate, there’s usually one reason behind it: money.

    Unsurprisingly, the continued federal prohibition on marijuana and its absurd classification as a Schedule 1 drug is no exception. Thankfully, a recent study published in the journal Health Affairs shows us exactly why pharmaceutical companies are one of the leading voices against medical marijuana. It has nothing to do with healthcare and everything to do with corporate greed.

    So is it a war on drugs, or a war on cheap medicine. Decide for yourself.

    The Washington Post reports:

    There’s a body of research showing that painkiller abuse and overdose are lower in states with medical marijuana laws. These studies have generally assumed that when medical marijuana is available, pain patients are increasingly choosing pot over powerful and deadly prescription narcotics. But that’s always been just an assumption.

     

    Now a new study, released in the journal Health Affairs, validates these findings by providing clear evidence of a missing link in the causal chain running from medical marijuana to falling overdoses. Ashley and W. David Bradford, a daughter-father pair of researchers at the University of Georgia, scoured the database of all prescription drugs paid for under Medicare Part D from 2010 to 2013.

     

    They found that, in the 17 states with a medical-marijuana law in place by 2013, prescriptions for painkillers and other classes of drugs fell sharply compared with states that did not have a medical-marijuana law. The drops were quite significant: In medical-marijuana states, the average doctor prescribed 265 fewer doses of antidepressants each year, 486 fewer doses of seizure medication, 541 fewer anti-nausea doses and 562 fewer doses of anti-anxiety medication.

    Screen Shot 2016-07-20 at 1.39.37 PM

    But most strikingly, the typical physician in a medical-marijuana state prescribed 1,826 fewer doses of painkillers in a given year.

     

    The tanking numbers for painkiller prescriptions in medical marijuana states are likely to cause some concern among pharmaceutical companies. These companies have long been at the forefront of opposition to marijuana reform, funding research by anti-pot academics and funneling dollars to groups, such as the Community Anti-Drug Coalitions of America, that oppose marijuana legalization.

     

    Pharmaceutical companies have also lobbied federal agencies directly to prevent the liberalization of marijuana laws. In one case, recently uncovered by the office of Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), the Department of Health and Human Services recommended that naturally derived THC, the main psychoactive component of marijuana, be moved from Schedule 1 to Schedule 3 of the Controlled Substances Act — a less restrictive category that would acknowledge the drug’s medical use and make it easier to research and prescribe. Several months after HHS submitted its recommendation, at least one drug company that manufactures a synthetic version of THC — which would presumably have to compete with any natural derivatives — wrote to the Drug Enforcement Administration to express opposition to rescheduling natural THC, citing “the abuse potential in terms of the need to grow and cultivate substantial crops of marijuana in the United States.”

     

    The DEA ultimately rejected the HHS recommendation without explanation.

    Yes, this DEA…

    DEA Agents Caught Having Drug Cartel Funded Prostitute Sex Parties Received Slap on the Wrist; None Fired

    The DEA Strikes Again – Agents Seize Man’s Life Savings Under Civil Asset Forfeiture Without Charges

    DEA Agents Wrongly Jailed Student for 5 Days Without Food or Water Until He Had to Drink Own Urine; Nobody Fired

    In what may be the most concerning finding for the pharmaceutical industry, the Bradfords took their analysis a step further by estimating the cost savings to Medicare from the decreased prescribing. They found that about $165 million was saved in the 17 medical marijuana states in 2013. In a back-of-the-envelope calculation, the estimated annual Medicare prescription savings would be nearly half a billion dollars if all 50 states were to implement similar programs.

     

    One limitation of the study is that it only looks at Medicare Part D spending, which applies only to seniors. Previous studies have shown that seniors are among the most reluctant medical-marijuana users, so the net effect of medical marijuana for all prescription patients may be even greater.

    Naturally, any sane society would immediately declassify marijuana as a Schedule 1 drug. Unfortunately, we do not live in a sane society.

    Meanwhile, since we’re already on the topic of the disastrously idiotic “war on drugs,” let’s examine another egregious example of how it’s abused in order to unnecessarily ruin countless lives across America.

    What follows are excerpts from a recent New York Times article covering “$2 Roadside Drug Tests” (I strongly suggest reading the entire thing):

    Prepare to be outraged.

    The officer asked Wilson to step out of the car. Wilson complied. The officer leaned in over the driver’s seat, looked around, then called to his partner; in the report Officer Duc Nguyen later filed, he wrote that he saw a needle in the car’s ceiling lining. Albritton didn’t know what he was talking about. Before she could protest, Officer David Helms had come around to her window and was asking for consent to search the car. If Albritton refused, Helms said, he would call for a drug-sniffing dog. Albritton agreed to the full search and waited nervously outside the car.

     

    Helms spotted a white crumb on the floor. In the report, Nguyen wrote that the officers believed the crumb was crack cocaine. They handcuffed Wilson and Albritton and stood them in front of the patrol car, its lights still flashing. They were on display for rush-hour traffic, criminal suspects sweating through their clothes in the 93-degree heat.

     

    At the police academy four years earlier, Helms was taught that to make a drug arrest on the street, an officer needed to conduct an elementary chemical test, right then and there. It’s what cops routinely do across the country every day while making thousands upon thousands of drug arrests. Helms popped the trunk of his patrol car, pulled out a small plastic pouch that contained a vial of pink liquid and returned to Albritton. He opened the lid on the vial and dropped a tiny piece of the crumb into the liquid. If the liquid remained pink, that would rule out the presence of cocaine. If it turned blue, then Albritton, as the owner of the car, could become a felony defendant.

     

    Helms waved the vial in front of her face and said, “You’re busted.”

     

    Albritton was booked into the Harris County jail at 3:37 a.m., nine hours after she was arrested. Wilson had been detained for driving without a license but would soon be released. Albritton was charged with felony drug possession and faced a much longer ordeal. Already, she was terrified as she thought about her family. Albritton was raised in a speck of a town called Marion at the northern edge of Louisiana. Her father still drove lumber trucks there; her mother had worked as a pharmacy technician until she died of colon cancer. Albritton was 15 then. She went through two unexpected pregnancies, the first at age 16, and two ill-fated marriages. But she had also pieced together a steady livelihood managing apartment complexes, and when her younger son was born disabled, she worked relentlessly to care for him. Now their future was almost certainly shattered.

     

    She heard her name called and stepped forward to the reinforced window. A tall man with thinning hair and wire-rim glasses approached and introduced himself as Dan Richardson, her court-appointed defense attorney.

     

    Richardson told Albritton that she was going to be charged with possession of a controlled substance, crack cocaine, at an arraignment that morning. Albritton recalls him explaining that this was a felony, and the maximum penalty was two years in state prison. She doesn’t remember him asking her what actually happened, or if she believed she was innocent. Instead, she recalls, he said that the prosecutor had already offered a deal for much less than two years. If she pleaded guilty, she would receive a 45-day sentence in the county jail, and most likely serve only half that.

     

    Albritton told Richardson that the police were mistaken; she was innocent. But Richardson, she says, was unswayed. The police had found crack in her car. The test proved it. She could spend a few weeks in jail or two years in prison. In despair, Albritton agreed to the deal.

     

    Police officers arrest more than 1.2 million people a year in the United States on charges of illegal drug possession. Field tests like the one Officer Helms used in front of Amy Albritton help them move quickly from suspicion to conviction. But the kits — which cost about $2 each and have changed little since 1973 — are far from reliable.

     

    Think about the insanity of this. 1.2 million people...for possession. This is beyond unethical since there’s no actual victim in the case of drug possession. If there’s no victim, how can there be a crime? It’s preposterous.

    The field tests seem simple, but a lot can go wrong. Some tests, including the one the Houston police officers used to analyze the crumb on the floor of Albritton’s car, use a single tube of a chemical called cobalt thiocyanate, which turns blue when it is exposed to cocaine. But cobalt thiocyanate also turns blue when it is exposed to more than 80 other compounds, including methadone, certain acne medications and several common household cleaners.

     

    There are no established error rates for the field tests, in part because their accuracy varies so widely depending on who is using them and how. In Las Vegas, authorities re-examined a sampling of cocaine field tests conducted between 2010 and 2013 and found that 33 percent of them were false positives. Data from the Florida Department of Law Enforcement lab system show that 21 percent of evidence that the police listed as methamphetamine after identifying it was not methamphetamine, and half of those false positives were not any kind of illegal drug at all. In one notable Florida episode, Hillsborough County sheriff’s deputies produced 15 false positives for methamphetamine in the first seven months of 2014. When we examined the department’s records, they showed that officers, faced with somewhat ambiguous directions on the pouches, had simply misunderstood which colors indicated a positive result.

     

    By 1978, the Department of Justice had determined that field tests “should not be used for evidential purposes,” and the field tests in use today remain inadmissible at trial in nearly every jurisdiction; instead, prosecutors must present a secondary lab test using more reliable methods.

     

    But this has proved to be a meaningless prohibition. Most drug cases in the United States are decided well before they reach trial, by the far more informal process of plea bargaining. In 2011, RTI International, a nonprofit research group based in North Carolina, found that prosecutors in nine of 10 jurisdictions it surveyed nationwide accepted guilty pleas based solely on the results of field tests

     

    We found that more than 10 percent of all county and state felony convictions are for drug charges, and at least 90 percent of those convictions come by way of plea deals. In Tennessee, guilty pleas produce 94 percent of all convictions. In Kansas, they make up more than 97 percent. In Harris County, Tex., where the judiciary makes detailed criminal caseload information public, 99.5 percent of drug-possession convictions are the result of a guilty plea. A majority of those are felony convictions, which restrict employment, housing and — in many states — the right to vote.

     

    When Albritton pleaded guilty, she asked Franklin to explain the situation to her bosses at the rental-property firm, but Franklin decided it was safer to say nothing. She was going to be fired in any case, he reasoned, and alerting an employer about the drug felony would only hurt her future prospects. Albritton had managed the Frances Place Apartments, a well-maintained brick complex, for two years, and a free apartment was part of her compensation. But as far as the company knew, Albritton had abandoned her job and her home. She was fired, and her furniture and other belongings were put out on the side of the road. “So I lost all that,” she says.

     

    Albritton gave up trying to convince people otherwise. She focused instead on Landon. Using a wheelchair, he needed regular sessions of physical and occupational therapy, and Albritton’s career managing the rental complex had been an ideal fit, providing a free home that kept her close to her son while she was at work, and allowing her the flexibility to ferry him to his appointments. But now, because of her new felony criminal record, which showed up immediately in background checks, she couldn’t even land an interview at another apartment complex. With a felony conviction, she couldn’t be approved as a renter either. Doug Franklin allowed Albritton and Landon to move in with him temporarily, and Albritton took a minimum-wage job at a convenience store.

     

    In 1972, the Department of Justice published a training guide for forensic chemists in the nation’s crime labs, emphasizing that they were “the last line of defense against a false accusation,” but 40 years later, that line had largely vanished. A federal survey in 2013 found that about 62 percent of crime labs do not test drug evidence when the defendant pleads guilty. But the Houston crime lab, for all its problems, would not be among them.

    Absolute insanity.

    The forensic scientists in Miller’s lab keep untested samples in Manila envelopes locked in cabinets below their work benches. Some sat there for as long as four years, lab records show. Albritton’s evidence stayed locked up for six months. On Feb. 23, 2011 — five months after Albritton completed her sentence and returned home as a felon — one of Houston’s forensic scientists, Ahtavea Barker, pulled the envelope up to her bench. It contained the crumb, the powder and the still-unexplained syringe. First she weighed everything. The syringe had too little residue on it even to test. It was just a syringe. The remainder of the “white chunk substance” that Officer Helms had tested positive with his field kit as crack cocaine totaled 0.0134 grams, Barker wrote on the examination sheet, about the same as a tiny pinch of salt.

     

    Barker turned to gas chromatography-mass spectrometry analysis, or GC-MS, the gold standard in chemical identification, to figure out what was in Albritton’s car that evening. She began with the powder. First the gas chromatograph vaporized a speck of the powder inside a tube. Then the gas was heated, causing its core chemical compounds to separate. When the individual compounds reached the end of the tube, the mass spectrometer blasted them with electrons, causing them to fragment. The resulting display, called a fragmentation pattern, is essentially a chemical fingerprint. The powder was a combination of aspirin and caffeine — the ingredients in BC Powder, the over-the-counter painkiller, as Albritton had insisted.

     

    Then Barker ran the same tests on the supposed crack cocaine. The crumb’s fragmentation pattern did not match that of cocaine, or any other compound in the lab’s extensive database. It was not a drug. It did not contain anything mixed with drugs. It was a crumb — food debris, perhaps. Barker wrote “N.A.M.” on the spectrum printout, “no acceptable match,” and then added another set of letters: “N.C.S.” No controlled substance identified. Albritton was innocent.

    Her life was ruined, and for what?

    If Albritton’s case is one of hundreds in Houston, there is every reason to suspect that it is just one among thousands of wrongful drug convictions that were based on field tests across the United States. The Harris County district attorney’s office is responsible for half of all exonerations by conviction-integrity units nationwide in the past three years — not because law enforcement is different there but because the Houston lab committed to testing evidence after defendants had already pleaded guilty, a position that is increasingly unpopular in forensic science.

     

    Crime labs have been moving away from drug cases to focus on DNA and evidence from violent crimes. In some instances, the shift has been extreme. The Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department’s forensic laboratory analyzes the evidence in, on average, just 73 drug cases a year, internal records show. Nearly all of its 8,000 annual possession arrests rest exclusively on field-test results.

     

    The United States Department of Justice was once among the leading voices of caution regarding field tests, and encouraged all drug evidence go to lab chemists. But in 2008, the Justice Department funded a program developed by the National Forensic Science Technology Center, a nonprofit that provides crime-lab training, to reduce drug-evidence backlogs. Titled Field Investigation Drug Officer, the program consisted of a series of seminars that taught local police officers how to administer color field tests on a large scale. In its curriculum, the technology center states that field tests help authorities by “removing the need for extensive laboratory analysis,” because “the field test may factor into obtaining an immediate plea agreement.” The Justice Department declined repeated interview requests.

    The Department of Justice, why am I not surprised. The DOJ seems interested in all sorts of things; unfortunately, justice isn’t one of them.

  • Peter Thiel's RNC Speech: "Wall Street Bankers Inflate Bubbles In Everything From Bonds To Hillary's Speaking Fees"

    What in our humble opinion has been the most original speech delivered so far at the RNC, was that of Peter Thiel, an openly gay libertarian, Facebook board member, former PayPal CEO and co-founder, and Nick Denton nemesis, who moments ago covered everything from Wall Street bubble blowing…

    “Wall Street bankers inflate bubbles in everything from government bonds to Hillary Clinton’s speaking fees”

    … to soaring costs in an age of alleged deflation as far as the eye can see…

    “Americans get paid less today than 10 years ago. But healthcare and college tuition cost more every year”

    … to floppy disks and figher planes…

    “Our nuclear bases still use floppy disks. Our newest fighter jets can’t even fly in the rain.”

    … to US foreign policy…

    “Instead of going to Mars, we have invaded the Middle East. We don’t need to see Hillary Clinton’s deleted emails: her incompetence is in plain sight. “

    … to transgender bathrooms…

    “Now we are told that the great debate is about who gets to use which bathroom.  This is a distraction from our real problems. Who cares?  Of course, every American has a unique identity.”

    … to America’s fake culture…

    “I don’t pretend to agree with every plank in our party’s platform. But fake culture wars only distract us from our economic decline.”

    And much, much more. His full speech transcript is below.

    * * *

    Good evening. I’m Peter Thiel.

    I build companies and I support people who are building new things, from social networks to rocket ships.

    I’m not a politician.

    But neither is Donald Trump.

    He is a builder, and it’s time to rebuild America.

    Where I work in Silicon Valley, it’s hard to see where America has gone wrong.

    My industry has made a lot of progress in computers and in software, and, of course, it’s made a lot of money.

    But Silicon Valley is a small place.

    Drive out to Sacramento, or even across the bridge to Oakland, and you won’t see the same prosperity. That’s just how small it is.

    Across the country, wages are flat.

    Americans get paid less today than 10 years ago. But healthcare and college tuition cost more every year. Meanwhile Wall Street bankers inflate bubbles in everything from government bonds to Hillary Clinton’s speaking fees.

    Our economy is broken. If you’re watching me right now, you understand this better than any politician in Washington. And you know this isn’t the dream we looked forward to. Back when my parents came to America looking for that dream, they found it—right here in Cleveland.

    They brought me here as a one-year-old, and this is where I became an American.

    Opportunity was everywhere.

    My Dad studied engineering at Case Western Reserve University, just down the road from where we are now. Because in 1968, the world’s high tech capital wasn’t just one city: all of America was high tech.

    It’s hard to remember this, but our government was once high tech, too. When I moved to Cleveland, defense research was laying the foundations for the Internet. The Apollo program was just about to put a man on the moon—and it was Neil Armstrong, from right here in Ohio.

    The future felt limitless.

    But today our government is broken. Our nuclear bases still use floppy disks. Our newest fighter jets can’t even fly in the rain. And it would be kind to say the government’s software works poorly, because much of the time it doesn’t even work at all.

    That is a staggering decline for the country that completed the Manhattan Project. We don’t accept such incompetence in Silicon Valley, and we must not accept it from our government.

    Instead of going to Mars, we have invaded the Middle East. We don’t need to see Hillary Clinton’s deleted emails: her incompetence is in plain sight. She pushed for a war in Libya, and today it’s a training ground for ISIS. On this most important issue, Donald Trump is right. It’s time to end the era of stupid wars and rebuild our country.

    When I was a kid, the great debate was about how to defeat the Soviet Union. And we won. Now we are told that the great debate is about who gets to use which bathroom.

    This is a distraction from our real problems. Who cares?

    Of course, every American has a unique identity.

    I am proud to be gay.

    I am proud to be a Republican.

    But most of all I am proud to be an American.

    I don’t pretend to agree with every plank in our party’s platform. But fake culture wars only distract us from our economic decline.

    And nobody in this race is being honest about it except Donald Trump.

    While it is fitting to talk about who we are, today it’s even more important to remember where we came from. For me that is Cleveland, and the bright future it promised.

    When Donald Trump asks us to Make America Great Again, he’s not suggesting a return to the past. He’s running to lead us back to that bright future.

    Tonight I urge all of my fellow Americans to stand up and vote for Donald Trump.

  • Donald Trump Addresses GOP Convention – Watch Live

    Trump speaks

    Full Speech Transcript

    * * *

    Friends, delegates and fellow Americans: I humbly and gratefully accept your nomination for the presidency of the United States.

    Together, we will lead our party back to the White House, and we will lead our country back to safety, prosperity, and peace. We will be a country of generosity and warmth. But we will also be a country of law and order.

    Our Convention occurs at a moment of crisis for our nation. The attacks on our police, and the terrorism in our cities, threaten our very way of life. Any politician who does not grasp this danger is not fit to lead our country.

    Americans watching this address tonight have seen the recent images of violence in our streets and the chaos in our communities. Many have witnessed this violence personally, some have even been its victims.

    I have a message for all of you: the crime and violence that today afflicts our nation will soon come to an end. Beginning on January 20th 2017, safety will be restored.

    The most basic duty of government is to defend the lives of its own citizens. Any government that fails to do so is a government unworthy to lead.

    It is finally time for a straightforward assessment of the state of our nation.

    I will present the facts plainly and honestly. We cannot afford to be so politically correct anymore.

    So if you want to hear the corporate spin, the carefully-crafted lies, and the media myths the Democrats are holding their convention next week.

    But here, at our convention, there will be no lies. We will honor the American people with the truth, and nothing else.

    Decades of progress made in bringing down crime are now being reversed by this Administration’s rollback of criminal enforcement.

    Homicides last year increased by 17% in America’s fifty largest cities. That’s the largest increase in 25 years. In our nation’s capital, killings have risen by 50 percent. They are up nearly 60% in nearby Baltimore.

    In the President’s hometown of Chicago, more than 2,000 have been the victims of shootings this year alone. And more than 3,600 have been killed in the Chicago area since he took office.

    The number of police officers killed in the line of duty has risen by almost 50% compared to this point last year. Nearly 180,000 illegal immigrants with criminal records, ordered deported from our country, are tonight roaming free to threaten peaceful citizens.

    The number of new illegal immigrant families who have crossed the border so far this year already exceeds the entire total from 2015. They are being released by the tens of thousands into our communities with no regard for the impact on public safety or resources.

    One such border-crosser was released and made his way to Nebraska. There, he ended the life of an innocent young girl named Sarah Root. She was 21 years-old, and was killed the day after graduating from college with a 4.0 Grade Point Average. Her killer was then released a second time, and he is now a fugitive from the law.

    I’ve met Sarah’s beautiful family. But to this Administration, their amazing daughter was just one more American life that wasn’t worth protecting. One more child to sacrifice on the altar of open borders. What about our economy?

    Again, I will tell you the plain facts that have been edited out of your nightly news and your morning newspaper: Nearly Four in 10 African-American children are living in poverty, while 58% of African American youth are not employed. 2 million more Latinos are in poverty today than when the President took his oath of office less than eight years ago. Another 14 million people have left the workforce entirely.

    Household incomes are down more than $4,000 since the year 2000. Our manufacturing trade deficit has reached an all-time high – nearly $800 billion in a single year. The budget is no better.

    President Obama has doubled our national debt to more than $19 trillion, and growing. Yet, what do we have to show for it? Our roads and bridges are falling apart, our airports are in Third World condition, and forty-three million Americans are on food stamps.

    Now let us consider the state of affairs abroad.

    Not only have our citizens endured domestic disaster, but they have lived through one international humiliation after another. We all remember the images of our sailors being forced to their knees by their Iranian captors at gunpoint.

    This was just prior to the signing of the Iran deal, which gave back to Iran $150 billion and gave us nothing – it will go down in history as one of the worst deals ever made. Another humiliation came when president Obama drew a red line in Syria – and the whole world knew it meant nothing.

    In Libya, our consulate – the symbol of American prestige around the globe – was brought down in flames. America is far less safe – and the world is far less stable – than when Obama made the decision to put Hillary Clinton in charge of America’s foreign policy.

    I am certain it is a decision he truly regrets. Her bad instincts and her bad judgment – something pointed out by Bernie Sanders – are what caused the disasters unfolding today. Let’s review the record. In 2009, pre-Hillary, ISIS was not even on the map.

    Libya was cooperating. Egypt was peaceful. Iraq was seeing a reduction in violence. Iran was being choked by sanctions. Syria was under control. After four years of Hillary Clinton, what do we have? ISIS has spread across the region, and the world. Libya is in ruins, and our Ambassador and his staff were left helpless to die at the hands of savage killers. Egypt was turned over to the radical Muslim brotherhood, forcing the military to retake control. Iraq is in chaos.

    Iran is on the path to nuclear weapons. Syria is engulfed in a civil war and a refugee crisis that now threatens the West. After fifteen years of wars in the Middle East, after trillions of dollars spent and thousands of lives lost, the situation is worse than it has ever been before.

    This is the legacy of Hillary Clinton: death, destruction and weakness.

    But Hillary Clinton’s legacy does not have to be America’s legacy. The problems we face now – poverty and violence at home, war and destruction abroad – will last only as long as we continue relying on the same politicians who created them. A change in leadership is required to change these outcomes. Tonight, I will share with you my plan of action for America.

    The most important difference between our plan and that of our opponents, is that our plan will put America First. Americanism, not globalism, will be our credo. As long as we are led by politicians who will not put America First, then we can be assured that other nations will not treat America with respect. This will all change in 2017.

    The American People will come first once again. My plan will begin with safety at home – which means safe neighborhoods, secure borders, and protection from terrorism. There can be no prosperity without law and order. On the economy, I will outline reforms to add millions of new jobs and trillions in new wealth that can be used to rebuild America.

    A number of these reforms that I will outline tonight will be opposed by some of our nation’s most powerful special interests. That is because these interests have rigged our political and economic system for their exclusive benefit.

    Big business, elite media and major donors are lining up behind the campaign of my opponent because they know she will keep our rigged system in place. They are throwing money at her because they have total control over everything she does. She is their puppet, and they pull the strings.

    That is why Hillary Clinton’s message is that things will never change. My message is that things have to change – and they have to change right now. Every day I wake up determined to deliver for the people I have met all across this nation that have been neglected, ignored, and abandoned.

    I have visited the laid-off factory workers, and the communities crushed by our horrible and unfair trade deals. These are the forgotten men and women of our country. People who work hard but no longer have a voice.

    I AM YOUR VOICE.

    I have embraced crying mothers who have lost their children because our politicians put their personal agendas before the national good. I have no patience for injustice, no tolerance for government incompetence, no sympathy for leaders who fail their citizens.

    When innocent people suffer, because our political system lacks the will, or the courage, or the basic decency to enforce our laws – or worse still, has sold out to some corporate lobbyist for cash – I am not able to look the other way.

    And when a Secretary of State illegally stores her emails on a private server, deletes 33,000 of them so the authorities can’t see her crime, puts our country at risk, lies about it in every different form and faces no consequence – I know that corruption has reached a level like never before.

    When the FBI Director says that the Secretary of State was “extremely careless” and “negligent,” in handling our classified secrets, I also know that these terms are minor compared to what she actually did. They were just used to save her from facing justice for her terrible crimes.

    In fact, her single greatest accomplishment may be committing such an egregious crime and getting away with it – especially when others have paid so dearly. When that same Secretary of State rakes in millions of dollars trading access and favors to special interests and foreign powers I know the time for action has come.

    I have joined the political arena so that the powerful can no longer beat up on people that cannot defend themselves. Nobody knows the system better than me, which is why I alone can fix it. I have seen firsthand how the system is rigged against our citizens, just like it was rigged against Bernie Sanders – he never had a chance.

    But his supporters will join our movement, because we will fix his biggest issue: trade. Millions of Democrats will join our movement because we are going to fix the system so it works for all Americans. In this cause, I am proud to have at my side the next Vice President of the United States: Governor Mike Pence of Indiana.

    We will bring the same economic success to America that Mike brought to Indiana. He is a man of character and accomplishment. He is the right man for the job. The first task for our new Administration will be to liberate our citizens from the crime and terrorism and lawlessness that threatens their communities.

    America was shocked to its core when our police officers in Dallas were brutally executed. In the days after Dallas, we have seen continued threats and violence against our law enforcement officials. Law officers have been shot or killed in recent days in Georgia, Missouri, Wisconsin, Kansas, Michigan and Tennessee.

    On Sunday, more police were gunned down in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. Three were killed, and four were badly injured. An attack on law enforcement is an attack on all Americans. I have a message to every last person threatening the peace on our streets and the safety of our police: when I take the oath of office next year, I will restore law and order our country.

    I will work with, and appoint, the best prosecutors and law enforcement officials in the country to get the job done. In this race for the White House, I am the Law And Order candidate. The irresponsible rhetoric of our President, who has used the pulpit of the presidency to divide us by race and color, has made America a more dangerous environment for everyone.

    This Administration has failed America’s inner cities. It’s failed them on education. It’s failed them on jobs. It’s failed them on crime. It’s failed them at every level.

    When I am President, I will work to ensure that all of our kids are treated equally, and protected equally.

    Every action I take, I will ask myself: does this make life better for young Americans in Baltimore, Chicago, Detroit, Ferguson who have as much of a right to live out their dreams as any other child America?

    To make life safe in America, we must also address the growing threats we face from outside America: we are going to defeat the barbarians of ISIS. Once again, France is the victim of brutal Islamic terrorism.

    Men, women and children viciously mowed down. Lives ruined. Families ripped apart. A nation in mourning.

    The damage and devastation that can be inflicted by Islamic radicals has been over and over – at the World Trade Center, at an office party in San Bernardino, at the Boston Marathon, and a military recruiting center in Chattanooga, Tennessee.

    Only weeks ago, in Orlando, Florida, 49 wonderful Americans were savagely murdered by an Islamic terrorist. This time, the terrorist targeted our LGBT community. As your President, I will do everything in my power to protect our LGBT citizens from the violence and oppression of a hateful foreign ideology. To protect us from terrorism, we need to focus on three things.

    We must have the best intelligence gathering operation in the world. We must abandon the failed policy of nation building and regime change that Hillary Clinton pushed in Iraq, Libya, Egypt and Syria. Instead, we must work with all of our allies who share our goal of destroying ISIS and stamping out Islamic terror.

    This includes working with our greatest ally in the region, the State of Israel. Lastly, we must immediately suspend immigration from any nation that has been compromised by terrorism until such time as proven vetting mechanisms have been put in place.

    My opponent has called for a radical 550% increase in Syrian refugees on top of existing massive refugee flows coming into our country under President Obama. She proposes this despite the fact that there’s no way to screen these refugees in order to find out who they are or where they come from. I only want to admit individuals into our country who will support our values and love our people.

    Anyone who endorses violence, hatred or oppression is not welcome in our country and never will be.

    Decades of record immigration have produced lower wages and higher unemployment for our citizens, especially for African-American and Latino workers. We are going to have an immigration system that works, but one that works for the American people.

    On Monday, we heard from three parents whose children were killed by illegal immigrants Mary Ann Mendoza, Sabine Durden, and Jamiel Shaw. They are just three brave representatives of many thousands. Of all my travels in this country, nothing has affected me more deeply than the time I have spent with the mothers and fathers who have lost their children to violence spilling across our border.

    These families have no special interests to represent them. There are no demonstrators to protest on their behalf. My opponent will never meet with them, or share in their pain. Instead, my opponent wants Sanctuary Cities. But where was sanctuary for Kate Steinle? Where was Sanctuary for the children of Mary Ann, Sabine and Jamiel? Where was sanctuary for all the other Americans who have been so brutally murdered, and who have suffered so horribly?

    These wounded American families have been alone. But they are alone no longer. Tonight, this candidate and this whole nation stand in their corner to support them, to send them our love, and to pledge in their honor that we will save countless more families from suffering the same awful fate.

    We are going to build a great border wall to stop illegal immigration, to stop the gangs and the violence, and to stop the drugs from pouring into our communities. I have been honored to receive the endorsement of America’s Border Patrol Agents, and will work directly with them to protect the integrity of our lawful immigration system.

    By ending catch-and-release on the border, we will stop the cycle of human smuggling and violence. Illegal border crossings will go down. Peace will be restored. By enforcing the rules for the millions who overstay their visas, our laws will finally receive the respect they deserve.

    Tonight, I want every American whose demands for immigration security have been denied – and every politician who has denied them – to listen very closely to the words I am about to say.

    On January 21st of 2017, the day after I take the oath of office, Americans will finally wake up in a country where the laws of the United States are enforced. We are going to be considerate and compassionate to everyone.

    But my greatest compassion will be for our own struggling citizens. My plan is the exact opposite of the radical and dangerous immigration policy of Hillary Clinton. Americans want relief from uncontrolled immigration. Communities want relief.

    Yet Hillary Clinton is proposing mass amnesty, mass immigration, and mass lawlessness. Her plan will overwhelm your schools and hospitals, further reduce your jobs and wages, and make it harder for recent immigrants to escape from poverty.

    I have a different vision for our workers. It begins with a new, fair trade policy that protects our jobs and stands up to countries that cheat. It’s been a signature message of my campaign from day one, and it will be a signature feature of my presidency from the moment I take the oath of office.

    I have made billions of dollars in business making deals – now I’m going to make our country rich again. I am going to turn our bad trade agreements into great ones. America has lost nearly-one third of its manufacturing jobs since 1997, following the enactment of disastrous trade deals supported by Bill and Hillary Clinton.

    Remember, it was Bill Clinton who signed NAFTA, one of the worst economic deals ever made by our country.

    Never again.

    I am going to bring our jobs back to Ohio and to America – and I am not going to let companies move to other countries, firing their employees along the way, without consequences.

    My opponent, on the other hand, has supported virtually every trade agreement that has been destroying our middle class. She supported NAFTA, and she supported China’s entrance into the World Trade Organization – another one of her husband’s colossal mistakes.

    She supported the job killing trade deal with South Korea. She has supported the Trans-Pacific Partnership. The TPP will not only destroy our manufacturing, but it will make America subject to the rulings of foreign governments. I pledge to never sign any trade agreement that hurts our workers, or that diminishes our freedom and independence. Instead, I will make individual deals with individual countries.

    No longer will we enter into these massive deals, with many countries, that are thousands of pages long – and which no one from our country even reads or understands. We are going to enforce all trade violations, including through the use of taxes and tariffs, against any country that cheats.

    This includes stopping China’s outrageous theft of intellectual property, along with their illegal product dumping, and their devastating currency manipulation. Our horrible trade agreements with China and many others, will be totally renegotiated. That includes renegotiating NAFTA to get a much better deal for America – and we’ll walk away if we don’t get the deal that we want. We are going to start building and making things again.

    Next comes the reform of our tax laws, regulations and energy rules. While Hillary Clinton plans a massive tax increase, I have proposed the largest tax reduction of any candidate who has declared for the presidential race this year – Democrat or Republican. Middle-income Americans will experience profound relief, and taxes will be simplified for everyone.

    America is one of the highest-taxed nations in the world. Reducing taxes will cause new companies and new jobs to come roaring back into our country. Then we are going to deal with the issue of regulation, one of the greatest job-killers of them all. Excessive regulation is costing our country as much as $2 trillion a year, and we will end it. We are going to lift the restrictions on the production of American energy. This will produce more than $20 trillion in job creating economic activity over the next four decades.

    My opponent, on the other hand, wants to put the great miners and steel workers of our country out of work – that will never happen when I am President. With these new economic policies, trillions of dollars will start flowing into our country.

    This new wealth will improve the quality of life for all Americans – We will build the roads, highways, bridges, tunnels, airports, and the railways of tomorrow. This, in turn, will create millions more jobs. We will rescue kids from failing schools by helping their parents send them to a safe school of their choice.

    My opponent would rather protect education bureaucrats than serve American children. We will repeal and replace disastrous Obamacare. You will be able to choose your own doctor again. And we will fix TSA at the airports! We will completely rebuild our depleted military, and the countries that we protect, at a massive loss, will be asked to pay their fair share.

    We will take care of our great Veterans like they have never been taken care of before. My opponent dismissed the VA scandal as being not widespread – one more sign of how out of touch she really is. We are going to ask every Department Head in government to provide a list of wasteful spending projects that we can eliminate in my first 100 days. The politicians have talked about it, I’m going to do it. We are also going to appoint justices to the United States Supreme Court who will uphold our laws and our Constitution.

    The replacement for Justice Scalia will be a person of similar views and principles. This will be one of the most important issues decided by this election. My opponent wants to essentially abolish the 2nd amendment. I, on the other hand, received the early and strong endorsement of the National Rifle Association and will protect the right of all Americans to keep their families safe.

    At this moment, I would like to thank the evangelical community who have been so good to me and so supportive. You have so much to contribute to our politics, yet our laws prevent you from speaking your minds from your own pulpits.

    An amendment, pushed by Lyndon Johnson, many years ago, threatens religious institutions with a loss of their tax-exempt status if they openly advocate their political views.

    I am going to work very hard to repeal that language and protect free speech for all Americans. We can accomplish these great things, and so much else – all we need to do is start believing in ourselves and in our country again. It is time to show the whole world that America Is Back – bigger, and better and stronger than ever before.

    In this journey, I'm so lucky to have at my side my wife Melania and my wonderful children, Don, Ivanka, Eric, Tiffany, and Barron: you will always be my greatest source of pride and joy. My Dad, Fred Trump, was the smartest and hardest working man I ever knew. I wonder sometimes what he’d say if he were here to see this tonight.

    It’s because of him that I learned, from my youngest age, to respect the dignity of work and the dignity of working people. He was a guy most comfortable in the company of bricklayers, carpenters, and electricians and I have a lot of that in me also. Then there’s my mother, Mary. She was strong, but also warm and fair-minded. She was a truly great mother. She was also one of the most honest and charitable people I have ever known, and a great judge of character.

    To my sisters Mary Anne and Elizabeth, my brother Robert and my late brother Fred, I will always give you my love you are most special to me. I have loved my life in business.

    But now, my sole and exclusive mission is to go to work for our country – to go to work for all of you. It’s time to deliver a victory for the American people. But to do that, we must break free from the petty politics of the past.

    America is a nation of believers, dreamers, and strivers that is being led by a group of censors, critics, and cynics.

    Remember: all of the people telling you that you can’t have the country you want, are the same people telling you that I wouldn’t be standing here tonight. No longer can we rely on those elites in media, and politics, who will say anything to keep a rigged system in place.

    Instead, we must choose to Believe In America. History is watching us now.

    It’s waiting to see if we will rise to the occasion, and if we will show the whole world that America is still free and independent and strong.

    My opponent asks her supporters to recite a three-word loyalty pledge. It reads: “I’m With Her”. I choose to recite a different pledge.

    My pledge reads: “I’M WITH YOU – THE AMERICAN PEOPLE.”

    I am your voice.

    So to every parent who dreams for their child, and every child who dreams for their future, I say these words to you tonight: I’m With You, and I will fight for you, and I will win for you.

    To all Americans tonight, in all our cities and towns, I make this promise: We Will Make America Strong Again.

    We Will Make America Proud Again.

    We Will Make America Safe Again.

    And We Will Make America Great Again.

    THANK YOU.

     

     

     

     

    * * *

    Earlier

    Following Cruz' "career-ending speech" last night, the moment everyone has been waiting for has arrived. A year after after announcing his run for president, billionaire Donald Trump takes the stage Thursday night to deliver what few pundits thought would ever happen: His acceptance speech for the presidential nomination of the Republican Party. While many will be interested in Peter Thiel and Tom Barrack, Ivanka Trump will introduce her dad whose theme – “Make America One Again” – centers on unity.

    Here’s what The Hill believes are the most important things to watch for during the final Republican National Convention session, which starts at 7 p.m. Eastern Time, as the real estate mogul takes hold of the party’s banner for the general election.

    Will the Donald deliver?

    All eyes will be on Trump’s keynote address, the climax of the weeklong event. Even for a man who has dominated media coverage for the greater part of a year, Trump’s Thursday speech will almost certainly be his most watched. He has sworn off his preferred free-wheeling style for a safer scripted address, a decision that will please the party’s wary establishment but could limit the opportunity for both viral moments and potentially damaging ones. Expect Trump to speak to both wings of the party—enthusiastic members of the Trump train as well as those who refuse to leave the station. He’ll need both if he wants to overtake Hillary Clinton’s lead in the polls and win the Oval Office.  

    Ivanka testifies for her father 

    Thursday also marks a major moment for Ivanka Trump, the eldest Trump daughter who is poised to emerge from this presidential cycle as a potent force. Ivanka has already served a key role in the campaign—she’s often deployed to soften her controversial father’s rough edges and has been called upon as his close adviser. Trump has already previewed the theme of his daughter’s speech—gender equality. As it stands in the polls, he could use a lifeline with female voters who have fled him in droves. It’s a tough mountain to climb, but Ivanka will be tasked with flipping the common perception of her father on its head and selling him as a compassionate father and, in her words earlier this month, a “feminist.” Even if she fails to stop a mass exodus of female support, a strong speech will reinforce her strong performance as a surrogate and potentially stoke the rumors of her potential political future.  

    Make America One Again

    The final spin on Trump’s theme, “Make America One Again” centers on unity. That’s no surprise considering the handful of notable Republicans reluctant to support Trump’s candidacy. While many of the party’s standard-bearers won’t be in attendance, Republican National Committee chairman Reince Priebus will take to the stage in the hopes of convincing delegates and Republicans across the country to fall in line, no matter their view on Trump. It’s a role Priebus has played for months—declaring Trump the party’s presumptive nominee back in May and working both in public and private to get Republicans on board. And it's a role that becomes even more important after Ted Cruz stunned the convention crowd on Wednesday by not endorsing Trump, a decision that dominated the night. Look for a healthy reliance on one thing bound to resonate with every delegate and attendee—an aggressive critique of Hillary Clinton. This week’s best-received speeches hammered home the case against Clinton—notably Chris Christie’s “indictment” of the presumptive Democratic nominee. So as he looks to motivate the party’s loyalists around the country, he’ll likely find no greater force than distaste for Clinton. 

    GOP looks to expand its appeal

    Trump’s precarious favorability numbers with women and minorities has prompted worries that he needs to expand his appeal or else he may lose the White House and take down-ticket Republicans with him. Thursday’s schedule of speakers is engineered to fight back and includes a handful speakers meant to shore up support among different constituencies. Along with Ivanka Trump, Rep. Marsha Blackburn (Tenn.) and Gov. Fallin (Okla.) will likely speak to discontented female voters and look to draw them back into the arms of the Grand Old Party. Jerry Falwell Jr. aims to rally Christian conservatives who may feel lukewarm about their nominee’s commitment to issues like abortion and gay rights. And Lisa Shin, a New Mexico small business owner and member of the National Diversity Coalition for Trump, will try to tell minority voters who have largely steered clear of Trump why he can “Make America Great Again” for them too.  

    Billionaires for Trump

    The speaking roster will also include two of Trump’s supporters from the business world—venture capitalist Peter Thiel and investor Tom Barrack. Thiel is best known as one of Facebook’s earliest outside investors and the head of security software firm Palantir Technologies. An openly gay man, he’s received some criticism from the liberal tech bubble for his support of Trump and the GOP despite the party’s stance against gay marriage. But Trump has been much more accepting of the LGBT community in his rhetoric, despite calling for the court to overturn the Supreme Court decision supporting gay marriage, so Thiel’s speech could shine an interesting light on how the party plans to reconcile the differences.

    Barrack’s relationship with Trump apparently dates back to before his political bid and to his real estate career. He also served as Deputy Undersecretary in President Ronald Reagan’s Department of Interior, giving him additional credibility at an event where Reagan is revered. He hosted Trump’s first major fundraiser in May, and recently released his own economic treatise"Opaque global monetary policies combined with unfocused, poorly negotiated international trade agreements are undermining the entire project of globalization as proponents of these policies face a growing backlash among voters," he writes.

    Citizens everywhere are unhappy with their governments and angry with their leaders. They are no longer interested in a political rhetoric that they do not understand and that has no value in their lives. Monetary policy, trade policy technological disruption and the array of issues that make up globalization are simply a parade of unintelligible horribles to the average working class citizen.

     

     

    Until recent times, central bank activities were mostly technical, marginal, and unreported. Today central bankers utilize exotic new tools such as Quantitative Easing (“QE”) and massive asset purchases to manipulate markets to conform to macroeconomic mandates and political leaders' preferences. The driving force behind US economic policy is no longer the Secretary of the Treasury or Chairman of the President's Council of Economic Advisors; it is the new breed of central banker on steroids. Foreign exchange, QE, asset purchases and the printing of money unanchored to any external standard, and other technical monetary tools are today’s “super trade weapons.”

     

    In the early stages of the financial crisis, central banks acted quickly, decisively and effectively to provide liquidity and help avert another Great Depression. These actions reinvigorated the payments and settlements system, established a floor on value and forced banks to restructure. Yet instead of curtailing emergency policies as economies recovered, central banks have all but monopolized the economy policies of many nations. As a result, investment has stalled and savings rates are pressing historic lows. Middle- and lower-income workers see no benefits from these policies, while the holders of capital, just as with globalization, enjoy burgeoning investment portfolios and bank accounts. At this point, central bank actions seem mainly to impact asset prices while only marginally influencing the true drivers of the economy, such as real investment, productivity expansion and job growth. We have reached the point where central banks – which are a lot better at emergency responses than steering long-term policy – have become the problem, not the solution.

     

     

    The dramatic swelling of Wall Street asset prices has not been accompanied by a revival of the real economy or rising middle class incomes. Unconventional monetary policy is not a reliable force for robust growth in a time of economic stagnation. Instead, it encourages riskier investment, compounding the rising wealth effects from expanding equity markets and real estate prices, which primarily benefit the affluent.

     

    Policies like QE also favor net borrowers over net savers, again benefitting debt-burdened governments and corporations that have the ability to borrow, while middle-class workers with limited borrowing capacity stagnate. This is the primary reason why corporate profit margins and equity markets are at historic highs, while real wage growth remains historically low. Employment data show a resentful workforce feeling despair and doomed to irrelevance in a technologically advanced global marketplace, even as investors enjoy the bull run of the century.

     

    In today’s globalized economy, elected leaders who decide fiscal policy, on which long-term economic growth is predicated, make little sustained effort to reform outdated personal or business tax policies or exercise spending restraints needed to reduce government debt. Monetary policy, for which elected leaders disclaim responsibility, leaving it to unelected central bankers, is king. Central banks are frantically seeking market share through currency devaluations, desperately hoping that lower nominal exchange rates will boost exports and reduce imports – part of a zero-sum rush-to-the-bottom.

     

     

    As the central bankers continue down their road without a GPS, no one knows what the effects will be: financial bubbles, a debt bust, an equity bust, a disorderly exit from the sale of trillions of dollars sitting on central bank balance sheets, emerging market capital outflows or increased inequality and disenchantment. Financial engineering by itself cannot achieve the kind of sustainable, inclusive growth that will extend economic benefits to America’s hard-pressed middle class. Opaque global monetary policies combined with unfocused, poorly negotiated international trade agreements are undermining the entire project of globalization as proponents of these policies face a growing backlash among voters.

     

     

    The world is moving at warp speed, as are all the things within it. In order to keep up, we too need to move and adapt or be lost in the black hole of entrenchment and entitlement. Many decades ago, Winston Churchill wrote a series of essays predicting the ever more dizzying pace of change in the modern world. It could not and must not be stopped, but he worried that mankind might have so much more, yet be unhappier than before. "Their hearts will ache, their lives will be barren, if they have not a vision above material things," he wrote. We need to be reminded about the "simple questions which man has asked since the earliest dawn of reason," about the meaning, purpose, and ends of mankind – in other words, the same kind of questions that led America's Founders to declare the self-evident truth that all human beings are created equal. As we question the status quo and chip away at the corrosion that attends old thoughts, ideas, and institutions, we must not fail to keep in mind the difference between material things that are always changing and the abiding truths that have made America great.

    Full Economic Treatise here…

  • 9/11: Bush's Guilt, And The 28 Pages

    Authored by Eric Zuesse via Strategic-Culture.org,

    On Friday July15th, as the national news media were either on vacation or preparing for the opening of the Trump National Convention on Monday the 18th, the long-awaited release of the ‘missing’ 28 pages from the US Senate’s 9/11 report occurred («DECEMBER 2002: JOINT INQUIRY INTO INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY ACTIVITIES BEFORE AND AFTER THE TERRORIST ATTACKS OF SEPTEMBER 11, 2001»). The official title of this document is «PART FOUR – FINDING, DISCUSSION AND NARRATIVE REGARDING CERTAIN SENSITIVE NATIONAL SECURITY MATTERS», and it constitutes pages 6-34 of a pdf. (Some writers mistakenly call it «29 pages».)

    It «was kept secret from the public on the orders of former President George W. Bush», and remained secret under Bush’s successor Barack Obama, until that Friday night late in Obama’s Second Administration, right before a week of Republican National Convention news would be dominating the news (along with any racial incidents, which would be sure to distract the public even more from any indication of Bush’s guilt). The pdf was of a picture-file so as to be non-searchable by journalists and thus slow to interpret, and thus would impede press-coverage of it. The file was also of a very degraded picture of the pages, so as to make the reading of it even more uninviting and difficult. Well, that was a skillful news-release-and-coverup operation! The Federal Government had plenty of time to do this right, but they evidently had plenty of incentive to do it wrong. They’re not incompetent; the reasonable explanation is something worse than that. (After all, this information has been hidden from the public for all of the 13+ years since that report was published without the 28 pages at the end of 2002.)

    What these 28 long-suppressed pages revealed was well summarized by one succinct reader who wrote:

    "The Inquiry discloses that there is a very direct chain of evidence about financing and logistics… [that] goes from the Saudi Royal family (Amb. Bandar's wife and Bandar's checking account) and Saudi consulate employees (al Thumiari) to the agent handlers (Basnan and al Bayoumi) to some of the 9/11 hijackers (Khalid al-Mihdhar, Nawaf al-Hazmi)."

    In other words, Prince Bandar bin-Sultan al-Saud, known in Washington as «Bandar Bush» (for his closeness to the Bush family), and who served at that time as Saudi Arabia’s Ambassador to the United States, paid tens of thousands of dollars to Saudi Arabia’s «handlers» who were directing two of the hijackers, Khalid al-Mihdhar and Nawaf al-Hazmi. Also, one of Bandar’s subordinates at the Embassy, named al-Thumiari, was likewise paying the person who was paying and managing those two jihadists.

    The report said:

    "FBI files suggest that al-Bayoumi provided substantial assistance to hijackers Khalid al-Mihdhar and Nawaf al-Hazmi after they arrived in San Diego in February 2000… According to an October 14, 2002 FBI document, al-Bayoumi has ‘extensive ties to the Saudi Government’… According to the FBI, al-Bayoumi was in frequent contact with the Emir at the Ministry of Defense, responsible for air traffic control… Al-Bayoumi was receiving money from the Saudi Ministry of Defense… Al-Bayoumi was known to have access to large amounts of money from Saudi Arabia, despite the fact that he did not appear to hold a jobAl-Bayoumi’s pay increased during the time that al-Hazmi and al-Mihdhar were in the United States."

    Also, an FBI agent testified on 9 October 2002 regarding al-Bayoumi, and said Bayoumi: 

    "acted like a Saudi intelligence officer, in my opinion. And if he was involved with the hijackers, which it looks like he was, if he signed leases, if he provided some sort of financing… then I would say that there’s a clear possibility that there might be a connection between Saudi intelligence and UBL [Usama bin Laden]."

    Moreover: «The FBI has now confirmed that only Osama Bassnan’s wife received money directly from Prince Bandar’s wife, but that al-Bayoumi’s wife attempted to deposit three of the checks from Prince Bandar’s wife, which were payable to Bassnan’s wife, into her own accounts… Bassnan was a very close associate of Omar al-Bayoumi’s and was in telephone contact with al-Bayoumi several times a day».

    Furthermore: «Bassnan’s wife received a monthly stipend from Princess Haifa».

    And: «On at least one occasion, Bassnan received a check directly from Prince Bandar’s account. According to the FBI, on May 14, 1998, Bassnan cashed a check from Bandar in the amount of $15,000. Bassnan’s wife also received at least one check directly from Bandar… for $10,000… FBI Executive Assistant Director D’Amuro commented on this financing: «I believe that we do have money going from Bandar’s wife, $2,000 a month up to about $64,000».

    Also:

    "On March 28, 2002, US and coalition forces retrieved the telephone book of Abu Zubayda, whom the US Government has identified as a senior al-Qa’ida operational coordinator. According to an FBI document, ‘a review of toll records has linked [to] ASPCOL Corporation in Aspen, Colorado… ASPCOL is the umbrella corporation that manages the affairs of the Colorado residence of Prince Bandar, the Saudi Ambassador… The US Government also located another Virginia number at an Usama bin Laden safehouse in Pakistan… [where a person was] interviewed by the FBI in June 2002. He could not explain why his number ended up at a safehouse in Pakistan, but stated that he regularly provides services to a couple who are personal assistants to Prince Bandar."

    This has to be seen in the context of George W Bush’s very close and longstanding personal friendship with Prince Bandar, and also in the context of Bandar’s career.

    Bandar has long been involved, both officially and unofficially, in the intelligence operations of the Saud family (which own Saudi Arabia). During October 2005 through January 2015, he served as secretary general of Saudi Arabia’s National Security Council, and he also was director general of the Saudi Intelligence Agency from 2012 to 2014. Furthermore, the just-released report asserts:

    «The FBI also received reports from individuals in the Muslim community alleging that Bassnan might be a Saudi intelligence agent. According to a CIA memo, Basnan reportedly received funding and possibly a fake passport from Saudi Government officials. He and his wife have received financial support from the Saudi Ambassador to the United States and his wife… A CIA report also indicates that Bassnan traveled to Houston in 2002 and… that during that trip a member of the Saudi royal family provided Bassnan with a significant amount of cash… FBI information indicates that Bassnan is an extremist and a supporter of Usama bin Laden».

    Regarding Shaykh al-Thumairy, he was «an accredited diplomat at the Saudi Consulate in Los Angeles and one of the ‘imams’ at the King Fahd Mosque… built in 1998 from funding provided by Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Abdulaziz. The mosque… is widely recognized for its anti-Western views».

    The 28 pages also include lots more, but those facts give at least some solid indications of the links that Prince Bandar had to 9/11.

    And other FBI offices than in San Diego were basically not even covered in the 28 pages; this was a rush-job by a Senate Committee, and with enormous resistance from the White House, which did everything they could to block the investigators.

    Furthermore: none of this information is as solid as the sworn court-testimony of the captured former bagman for al-Qaeda, their bookkeeper who personally collected each one of the million-dollar cash donations to the organization and named many donors, including Prince Bandar, as having been among the people from whom he picked up those suitcases full of cash. He said of their donations: «It was crucial. I mean, without the money of the – of the Saudi you will have nothing». The authors of the Senate investigation report, never got any wind of this, because that man was in a US prison and held incommunicado until that court-case in October 2014. But it was virtually the entire Saud family – not merely Bandar – who funded 9/11.

    So, we know that Bandar «Bush» was practically like a brother to George W Bush, but what other indications do we have of GWB’s guilt in the planning of the 9/11 attacks?

    First of all, if he wasn’t involved in the attack’s planning, then he was grossly incompetent and uncaring, to the point of criminal negligence for the numerous attempts that the CIA had made to warn GWB that such an attack was being planned and would occur soon – that he simply ignored those warnings. Criminal negligence, however, isn’t the same as being a traitor. That’s far more serious, and it would entail Bush’s conscious desire for such an attack to occur. Such evidence does exist. Here it is:

    Researcher Chris Whipple headlined at Politico, on 12 November 2015, «‘The Attacks Will Be Spectacular’», and he reported:

    «Bin Laden Determined to Strike in US» The CIA’s famous Presidential Daily Brief, presented to George W. Bush on August 6, 2001, has always been Exhibit A in the case that his administration shrugged off warnings of an Al Qaeda attack. But months earlier, starting in the spring of 2001, the CIA repeatedly and urgently began to warn the White House that an attack was coming.

    By May of 2001, says Cofer Black, then chief of the CIA’s counterterrorism center, ‘it was very evident that we were going to be struck, we were gonna be struck hard and lots of Americans were going to die.’ ‘There were real plots being manifested,’ Cofer’s former boss, George Tenet, told me in his first interview in eight years…

    The crisis came to a head on July 10. The critical meeting that took place that day was first reported by Bob Woodward in 2006. Tenet also wrote about it in general terms in his 2007 memoir At the Center of the Storm.

    But neither he nor Black has spoken about it publicly in such detail until now — or been so emphatic about how specific and pressing their warnings really were. Over the past eight months, in more than a hundred hours of interviews, my partners Jules and Gedeon Naudet and I talked with Tenet and the 11 other living former CIA directors for The Spymasters, a documentary set to air this month on Showtime.

    The drama of failed warnings began when Tenet and Black pitched a plan, in the spring of 2001, called «the Blue Sky paper» to Bush’s new national security team. It called for a covert CIA and military campaign to end the Al Qaeda threat — ‘getting into the Afghan sanctuary, launching a paramilitary operation, creating a bridge with Uzbekistan.’ ‘And the word back,’ says Tenet, ‘was «we’re not quite ready to consider this. We don’t want the clock to start ticking». (Translation: they did not want a paper trail to show that they’d been warned.)»

    Five days later, I wrote an article interpreting that, titled «Politico Reports Bush Knew 2001 Terror-Attack Was Imminent and Wanted It». Readers here are referred to that, for the continuation of the case here.

    For additional information on the bonding between the Saudi aristocracy and the US aristocracy, see this and this. It’s important to understand in order to be able to understand why Obama helped to set up the 21 August 2013 Syrian sarin attack to be blamed on Bashar al-Assad, who is allied with Russia. The US is allied with the Saud family, against Russia; and Syria is allied with Russia and refuses to allow pipelines for gas from Qatar and oil from Saudi Arabia through Syria to replace gas and oil that Russia has been selling to the EU. (Like RFK Jr. properly headlined on 25 February 2016, «Syria: Another Pipeline War». That’s why the Sauds want Assad dead.)

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Today’s News 21st July 2016

  • Sharia In Denmark

    Submitted by Judith Bergmann via The Gatestone Institute,

    • "All the bullying happens in Arabic… The hierarchy of the Arab boys creates a very violent environment. … I have filmed the particularly vile bullying of a Somali boy. You can see the tears in his eyes. They are destroying him; it is very violent. " — From a dissertation by Jalal El Derbas, Ph.D.

    • Danish teachers are the least respected and are spoken of in denigrating and humiliating terms.

    • "I am not saying that all the Arab children did ugly things, but we witnessed on a regular basis… using derogatory Arabic language towards Somalis and girls." — Lise Egholm, former head of the Rådmandsgade school in Copenhagen.

    • Whether Danish parliamentarians wish to acknowledge this problem or not, they are up against far wider issues than that of religious incitement in mosques by radical preachers.

    After the television documentary, "Sharia in Denmark", embarrassed Danish authorities by revealing how widespread the preaching of sharia is in mosques in Denmark; the Danish government, in May, concluded a political agreement about "initiatives directed against religious preachers who seek to undermine Danish laws and values and who support parallel legal systems."

    "We are doing everything we can without compromising the constitution and international agreements," Bertel Haarder, the Minister for Culture and Church, said about the political agreement.

    The agreement centers on a number of initiatives, which are supposed to compensate for the detrimental effects of all the years in which sharia was allowed to spread in Denmark while most authorities paid only scant attention to what was happening. Part of the new effort, therefore, will be the mapping of all existing mosques in Denmark.

    It will now be obligatory, according to the agreement, for all priests, imams and others who are not part of the Church of Denmark, and who wish to be able to perform weddings — as well as for foreign preachers who apply for residence permits — to learn about Danish family law, freedom and democracy. At the end of the course, all will have to sign a statement that they will accept Danish law, including freedom of speech and religion, gender equality, freedom of sexual orientation, non-discrimination and women's rights.

    The government will examine how to create more transparency in foreign donations to faith communities in Denmark, including controlling and, if necessary, preventing such donations. As part of this work, on May 4 the government presented a law making it a crime to receive funding from a terror organization to establish or run an institution in Denmark, including schools and mosques.

    Another element in the political agreement is the establishment of national lists with the names of traveling foreign (non-EU) religious preachers who will be excluded from entry into Denmark on the grounds that they are a threat to public order in Denmark. These named preachers will not be granted an entry visa and will be denied entry at the border. In addition, a non-public list, containing the names of such preachers who are EU citizens, will be established. The purpose of this list is to create awareness of the existence of these preachers, as, due to EU rules on free movement, they cannot be denied entry.

    The final component of the agreement is the criminalization of certain speech. According to the agreement, it will become illegal explicitly to support terrorism, murder, rape, violence, incest, pedophilia, the use of force and polygamy as part of religious training, and whether or not the speech was made in private or in public. Both the activities of religious preachers and the activities of others, who speak as part of religious training, are included in the criminalization.

    The political agreement is expected to become law when the Danish parliament reconvenes after the summer vacation.

    Danish parliamentarians are aware that it will be difficult to measure whether these initiatives have any effect — how do you measure whether religious preachers are indeed not explicitly supporting terrorism, murder, rape and pedophilia, unless you place them under constant surveillance? But lawmakers are nevertheless confident that the new initiatives will have an effect. "This will have an impact on what people put up with from their religious leaders." Culture and Church Minister Bertel Haarder says.

    Another parliamentarian, Naser Khader, who appears more realistic, says,

    "We are well aware that more initiatives are needed. But this stops hate preachers from coming to Denmark, preachers who only want to come here in order to sow discord between population groups and who encourage violence, incest and pedophilia."

    After the documentary "Sharia in Denmark" embarrassed Danish authorities, the government reached a new a political agreement, which Danish Member of Parliament Naser Khader supported, saying, "this stops hate preachers from coming to Denmark, preachers who only want to come here in order to sow discord between population groups and who encourage violence, incest and pedophilia."

    While Danish politicians have taken yet another step on an uncertain road that may or may not succeed in stemming the rise of sharia in Denmark, other problems abound, which compound the impression that this initiative will not amount to much more than a symbolic band-aid.

    A recent Ph.D. dissertation by Jalal El Derbas, as reported by the Danish newspaper, Berlingske Tidende, shows that in several Danish schools with Arab students, the latter, mainly boys, use Arabic as a means to sexually and racially harass and bully other students as well as their teachers, especially girls, Somalis and ethnically Danish teachers, who do not understand the insults hurled at them in Arabic.

    According to the article, El Derbas was shocked when he went through the video footage of 12- and 13-year-olds in two different Danish public schools with a majority of pupils with minority background. The purpose of his Ph.D. was to examine the possible causes of why bilingual boys — who speak both Danish and Arabic — continue to lag behind other Danish students. He wanted to see what those bilingual boys actually do in the classroom. The footage was taken over five months and it displayed a world characterized by hierarchy, sexual and religious harassment, bullying and racism, in which the first language of the students, Arabic, played a central and leading role. According to El Derbas:

    "I could see that the students used Arabic as a secret code and they only used it negatively to disturb the schoolwork. If they did not want to do the work, they simply shifted to Arabic. The schools were very flexible and allowed the students to use Arabic both inside and outside the classroom. But all that this freedom accomplished was that the students shifted from Danish to Arabic if they were getting into a fight and if there was a teacher nearby whom they did not want to understand what they were saying."

    The video footage also revealed a hierarchy consisting of sexual harassment and racism, because the Arab boys consider themselves higher-ranking than girls and Somali students.

    "All the bullying happens in Arabic. All the ugly and mean words are uttered in Arabic. The hierarchy of the Arab boys creates a very violent environment. I have video footage of severe sexual harassment against Arab girls and I have filmed the particularly vile bullying of a Somali boy. You can see the tears in his eyes. They are destroying him; it is very violent."

    According to El Derbas, Sunni and Shia Muslim strife is also imported into the grounds of these Danish schools. With the majority of the boys being Sunni Muslims, they look down on the Shia Muslim students and a teacher who is a Shia Muslim is called "Satan" or "witch", whereas a Sunni Muslim teacher is addressed courteously as "uncle" or "aunt". Danish teachers are the least respected, and are spoken of in denigrating and humiliating terms.

    El Derbas, stressed that the pupils come from ghetto areas, saying:

    "Many of the teachers have given up on engaging the parents in any way, but if this is to change it has to happen through the parents. Maybe it would help if the parents took turns of being present in the classroom to see how their children behave. Most of them [the parents] are not working or studying anyway. I think that could lead to an improvement. Because no parents will accept that their children behave in this manner".

    The results of the dissertation come as no surprise to Lise Egholm, now retired, but who for 18 years, until 2013, was the head of Copenhagen's Rådmandsgade school, which has many Arab students.

    "I am not saying that all the Arab children did ugly things," says Egholm, "but we witnessed on a regular basis exactly the phenomenon of using derogatory Arabic language towards Somalis and girls… Back then the biggest group of children in the school was Arabic speaking, and the words which in Arabic mean 'whore' and 'f— your mother' they all knew."

    In a written statement to Berlingske Tidende, Minister of Education, Ellen Trane Nørby, wrote,

    "It is never all right to bully, whether this happens in Danish, Arabic, or in a third language. That is why I have initiated a large initiative, which has as its purpose to prevent and combat bullying. The teachers have to signal very strongly that there has to be room for all children and that you have to treat other pupils with respect. If some pupils do not understand this and speak in 'code language' or use a language that excludes and bullies other pupils, the schools must intervene. Danish is the language used for teaching in Denmark, and pupils should not be excluded or bullied because of parallel languages in school".

    However, what the minister of education fails to mention is that the problems with this kind of behavior are not likely to remain inside the school, but will inevitably spill into the streets. Then what? No amount of lists of radical religious preachers and laws is going to change that fact.

    Whether Danish parliamentarians wish to acknowledge this problem or not, they are up against far wider issues than that of religious incitement in mosques by radical preachers. Notably, El Derbas's findings have not caused any debate remotely resembling that, which was caused by the "Sharia in Denmark" documentary. They should.

  • Ted Cruz Booed For Refusing To Endorse Trump; Heidi Cruz Escorted Out To Shouts Of "Goldman Sachs"

    Update 3: Chris Christie unloaded on Cruz(as Politico reports)

    Chris Christie did not mince words for Ted Cruz after the Texas senator refused to endorse Donald Trump on the prime-time convention stage Wednesday night.

     

    “It was an awful, selfish speech by someone who tonight, through the words he said on that stage, showed everybody why he has richly earned the reputation that he has on Capitol Hill,” Christie said to reporters on the floor of the convention.

     

    The New Jersey governor put a formal voice to the many delegates who greeted Cruz’s failure to endorse Trump in his 23-minute speech with widespread boos.

     

    “If you love our country and love your children as much as I know that you do, stand and speak and vote your conscience,” Cruz said. “Vote for candidates up and down the ticket who you trust to defend our freedom and to be faithful to the Constitution.”

     

    Christie mocked that rhetorical flourish. “I don’t understand how someone can present themselves as a person of integrity and then come into this room tonight and give that cute speech,” he said. “And that was cute.”

    *  *  *

    Update 2: Cruz's actions appear to be backfiring

    *  *  *

    Update 1: RNC sources are reporting that Ted Cruz' "speech was different than the version he gave RNC in advance." Furthermore, officials and Cruz had to be physically separated after his speech.

    *  *  *

    As we detailed earlier, those who had predicted that the third day of the RNC would unveil with yet another scandal, they were right.

    Moments ago, Donald Trump's former rival, Ted Cruz was roundly booed after failing to endorse Trump during an address to the Republican National Convention, an obvious jab from the Texas lawmaker at the real estate mogul, who tormented him as "Lyin' Ted" during the primary.

    Instead of urging the crowd to vote for Tump, Cruz instead told delegates and voters to "vote your conscience" in November and never specifically said that people should cast their ballots for the Republican nominee. During the course of his speech, Cruz only mentioned Trump once, to congratulate him on getting the nomination.

    "To those listening, please, don’t stay home in November. If you love our country, and love your children as much as I know you do, stand, and speak, and vote your conscience, vote for candidates up and down the ticket who you trust to defend our freedom and to be faithful to the Constitution," Cruz said. As he continued speaking, and the crowd began to realize that an endorsement seemed less likely, the cheers that marked the early part of the speech became boos.

    "I appreciate the enthusiasm of the New York delegation," Cruz said to the vocal Trump home-state supporters who were placed right in front of the stage. They were yelling "We want Trump! We want Trump!"

    One reason why Cruz' speech was among the most anticipated, is due to the level of vitriol that enveloped the closing days of the GOP primary campaign. Trump labeled Cruz “Lyin’ Ted,” falsely accused his father of being involved in the assassination of President Kennedy, and threatened to “spill the beans” on Cruz’s wife, Heidi. In turn, Cruz called Trump a “sniveling coward,” a “pathological liar” and a “narcissist at a level that I don’t think this country has ever seen.”

    Cruz's wife, Heidi, was seen leaving the arena when the booing started getting very loud. Former Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli told ABC News that he escorted Heidi Cruz out of the convention hall because “it was volatile and the Trump folks were physically approaching and confrontationally yelling,” he said via text.

    According to CNN's Manu Raju, as Heidi was being escorted out, one angry Trump supporter was shouting "Goldman Sachs" at her.

     

    After leaving the floor, Heidi Cruz also reportedly got into a verbal altercation with the head of the Washington delegation, who had berated Ted Cruz following his speech.

    Or perhaps it was all intentional, and yet another dramatic sequence orchestrated to provide the next speaker, Trump's son Eric, with a crowd that needed an outlet for affirmation.

    According to Mashable, reports before Cruz spoke indicated that he did not plan to endorse Trump, although he did congratulate the nominee and admonished the crowd to vote for the candidate that will be "faithful to the constitution." That wasn't enough for the crowd, which loudly booed Cruz and chanted for Trump.

    As ABC writes, the fact that Cruz spoke at all came as a surprise to some considering how bitter the primary campaign became towards the end. At one point, Trump insinuated that Cruz's wife Heidi was less attractive than his own wife Melania, and later he made suggestions that Cruz's Cuban father was somehow connected to the assassination of President John F. Kennedy.

    He also questioned whether Cruz was eligible to run for the presidency because he was born in Canada.

    Shortly after Cruz exited the stage to a growing round of boos, Trump entered the arena on the opposite side to sit with his family and watch his son Eric address the crowd.

  • Wikileaks Is About To Expose The Turkish 'Coup', But Someone Is Trying To Silence Them

    Submitted by Carey Wedler via TheAntiMedia.org,

    Wikileaks claimed Monday it was under attack after it announced it would release hundreds of thousands of documents related to Turkey and the failed military coup attempted Friday, CNET reported.

    The organization, which has released information on everything from war crimes to Hillary Clinton’s email scandal, announced Sunday it would be releasing 100,000 documents related to Turkey’s “political power structure,” some of which detail the “leadup” to the coup.

     

    Wikileaks anticipated the release would be censored in Turkey, cautioning in a three-part tweet posted Monday:

    Turks will likely be censored to prevent them reading our pending release of 100k+ docs on politics leading up to the coup. We ask that Turks are ready with censorship bypassing systems such as TorBrowser and uTorrent and that everyone else is ready to help them bypass censorship and push our links through the censorship to come.

     

    The Turkish government, headed by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has increasingly ramped up censorship efforts against journalists, lending credibility to Wikileaks suspicions their release may not fully reach Turkish citizens—especially considering the latest leak concerns his ruling party, AKP.

    As CNET noted:

    Facebook, Twitter and YouTube were reportedly blocked in Turkey during the attempted coup Friday, but many residents appear to have gotten around the blocks, posting messages and videos, likely using VPNs or other anonymizing services.”

    Throughout Monday, Wikileaks continued to promote the release.

    They then tweeted that instead of 100,000 documents, they would actually be releasing far more. “Our pending release of 100k docs on Turkish political power? Just kidding. The first batch is 300k emails, 500k docs,” they announced.

    But just hours later, they alerted followers their website was being attacked. “Our infrastructure is under sustained attack,” they tweeted, alongside the hashtag, #TurkeyPurge.

     

    We are unsure of the true origin of the attack. The timing suggests a Turkish state power faction or its allies. We will prevail & publish,” Wikileaks tweeted shortly after.

     

    An hour later, the organization remained resolute in its determination to publish the hundreds of thousands of documents. “Coming Tuesday: The#ErdoganEmails: 300 thousand internal emails from Erdo?an’s AKP – through to July 7, 2016,” they tweeted.

    After tweeting further about the ongoing cyber attacks, Wikileaks eventually announced Tuesday they had released the first installment of emails, which can be viewed here. The emails are from the server of the AKP.

     

    The failed military coup in Turkey over the weekend heightened tensions within the country, where President Erdo?an has grown increasingly autocratic. The Turkish government has also been implicated in the rise of ISIS and has been accused of allowing fighters to cross through their borders and providing them with medical assistance.

    The coup, which continues to be mired in uncertainties, accusations, and conflicting reports, left Turkish citizens between a rock and a hard place—a military coup or an increasingly oppressive democratically-elected leader who has now overseen 50,000 suspensions or detainments of government employees regarding the military’s failed attempt to seize power.

    It seems Wikileak’s release of information on Turkish power structures could not come at a more vital time—that is, so long as it reaches the Turkish people.

  • US To Seize $1 Billion In Embezzled Malaysian Assets Which Goldman Sachs Helped Buy

    The last time we wrote about the long-running saga of the scandalous collapse and constant corruption at the Malaysian state wealth fund, 1MDB, which also happened to be an unconfirmed slush fund for president Najib, was a month ago when we learned that the NY bank regulator was looking into fundraising by the fund’s favorite bank, Goldman Sachs. Then overnight, the story which already seemed like it has every possible angle of crime and corruption covered for a series of Hollywood action-adventure blockbusters, got a new twist when the DOJ announced it would seek to seize some $1 billion in assets from individuals affiliated with the fun as part of one of the largest seizures in US history.

    The expected asset seizures would be the U.S. government’s first action tied to the 1MDB investigation. Among the properties the US is looking to confiscate, are Van Gogh paintings, Beverly Hills properties, a private jet, ultra high end real estate in NYC and LA, and the rights to profits from the hit movie The Wolf of Wall Street.

    The move by U.S. authorities to seize assets tied to an investment fund run by a foreign government would be a major escalation in Washington’s global efforts to fight corruption and block allegedly illegally obtained funds, facilitated by Goldman Sachs, from moving through the world’s financial system the WSJ adds.

    The case represents the most detailed and sweeping allegations to be brought in the multinational probe into a global scheme to siphon more than $3.5bn from the Malaysian government fund.  As the FT adds, it is also the first time Malay prime minister, Najib Razak, has been officially tied to the scandal, and while he has not been by name in court documents the description of “Malaysian Official 1” matches his biography and job responsibilities. In what may develop into a major diplomatic row, the DOJ states that that “official” received funds misappropriated from 1MDB, prosecutors say. Najib has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing.

    The actions by U.S. authorities also threaten to upend the country’s relationship with Malaysia, a moderate Muslim nation that has long been an important U.S. ally in Southeast Asia, and may force Malaysia to enter China’s sphere of influence in exchange for protection from US retaliation. Malaysia has deep ties to the Middle East and has been seen as a bulwark against China, which has increasingly asserted its power across Asia. President Barack Obama cultivated a relationship with Mr. Najib, including playing golf together in Hawaii over the Christmas holidays in 2014, something we reported at the time.

     

    Amid the controversy, the Malaysian leader now was likely to focus on his domestic political survival rather than retaliate against the Obama administration, said James Keith, US ambassador to Malaysia from 2007 to 2010. Malaysia is a key regional partner for the US, backing a proposed trans-Pacific trade deal and hosting a digital centre to counter Islamic State propaganda. “I don’t think this is unexpected from Najib’s perspective,” said Mr Keith. “His approach is: batten down the hatches; we’re going to survive this, no matter what. He’ll do everything he can just to pretend this didn’t happen.”

    * * *

    Political fallout notwithstanding, the case reveals just how extensive money-laundering by the fund, the Malay prime minister, and a handful of affiliated individuals, often with US bank assistance, has been ever since 1MDB was created in 2009 as a government-owned vehicle to promote economic development through global partnerships and foreign investment.

    Ironically, it ended up anything but as funds intended to benefit the Malaysian people were instead diverted to buy real estate, works of art and jewellery, pay casino bills and hire musicians and celebrities for the conspirators’ “lavish lifestyles”,  the complaint says. More than $200m was spent on art alone, prosecutors allege.

    As part of the complaint, US authorities accuse Malaysian officials and business executives with receiving laundered 1MDB funds through banks in Singapore, Switzerland, Luxembourg and New York. The Malaysian officials “treated this public trust as a personal bank account”, said Loretta Lynch, US attorney-general. The misappropriation occurred over four years beginning shortly after Mr Najib set up the fund, according to the complaint. According to the suit, in March 2013, $681m in proceeds from a 1MDB bond offering were transferred into an account belonging to the official matching Mr Najib’s description. Five months later, $620m of that amount was shifted to a different account to which a 1MDB official was an authorised signatory.

    Officials at 1MDB and others began diverting money shortly after the fund was created in September 2009 under the guise of investing in a joint venture with a private Saudi oil extraction company, PetroSaudi International. More than $1bn was transferred to a Swiss bank account held by Good Star Ltd, which was owned by Mr Low, prosecutors allege. Andrew McCabe, deputy director of the FBI, told reporters in Washington: “The Malaysian people were defrauded on an enormous scale.”

    There is more in the full complaint, and it revolves around the three main players who, aside from the prime minister,  were instrumental in the perpetuation of this grand fraud, including, Riza Aziz, stepson of Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak; Jho Low, a Malaysian financier; and Khadem Al Qubaisi, a former Abu Dhabi managing director of a sovereign-wealth fund.

    Details about their involvement can be found in the WSJ.

    * * *

    Much of the above was already known, or implied, however this is the first official confirmation of just how vast the money-laundering scheme was and that it stretched to the very top. What is now also confirmed, is that at the heart of the fundraising operation was none other than Goldman Sachs.

    According to the complaint, in 2012, 1MDB officials and others fraudulently diverted $1.4bn in proceeds from two bond offerings arranged by Goldman Sachs, according to the complaint. Representing almost 40 per cent of the total raised, the funds were transferred to a Swiss account controlled by a British Virgin Islands entity called Aabar Investments PJS Limited. Aabar had been named to suggest a relationship with an Abu Dhabi company, Aabar Investments PJS, an investment arm of the Abu Dhabi government. But funds diverted to the Swiss account ultimately ended up in a Singapore bank account.

    In 2013, several officials including those from 1MDB diverted nearly $1.3bn from another $3bn Goldman bond offering. The money was supposed to be used to finance a joint venture known as the Abu Dhabi Malaysia Investment Co but was instead funnelled into a Singapore account controlled by Mr Low’s associate, the complaint says.

    Where it becomes clear that Goldman had a special arrangement with the complicit issuer and the prime minister, is that Goldman earned $192.5m or nearly 11 per cent of the principal amount on one of the 2012 bond deals, a $1.75bn offering, according to court documents, which also said that the offering circular “contained misleading statements and omitted materials facts”. Considering that a typical fee for an emerging market sovereign or quasi-sovereign bond offering between $1bn-$5bn would be between 0.1 per cent and 0.3 per cent, according to Dealogic, this is nothing short of kickback to Goldman, and raises questions about why Goldman wilfully accepted such an overblown fee for a deal which any of its competitor banks would have done for a fraction of the cost.

    This being Goldman, of course, the bank was not accused of any wrongdoing in today’s action. It may be in the future as per the DOJ’s parallel prove whether Goldman violated the Bank Secrecy Act in its handling of the proceeds of the securities offerings, but somehow the FBI was unable to link the bank to any crime conducted by the same people who were paying it exorbitant fees to keep the money flowing.

    * * *

    So once Goldman’s fundraising skills allowed corrupt Malaysian politicians and selected shady middlemen to have access to billion which they would then embezzle, what did they spend the money on? Perhaps a better question is what did they not spend on: among the purchases were Van Gogh paintings, a private jet, the rights to profits from the hit movie The Wolf of Wall Street, and real estate. Lots and lots of ultra high end real estate.

    Here are some of the details from WSJ:

    The properties allegedly bought with funds misappropriated from a Malaysian investment fund would make for a stunning house tour of high-end real estate in New York and Los Angeles. Besides flashy real estate, the U.S. government alleges that money from the fund, known as 1Malaysia Development Bhd. or 1MDB, was used to buy a $35 million private jet and a stake in EMI Music Publishing.

    The assets that the government is trying to seize were purchased by three men who had close ties to 1MDB: Jho Low, a Malaysian deal maker; Riza Aziz, the stepson of Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak, and Khadem Al Qubaisi, a former Abu Dhabi managing director of a sovereign-wealth fund, and occasionally the men sold or gave assets to one another.

    The properties range from a Beverly Hills mansion with a 120-foot-long pool to a string of Manhattan condos, including a seven-bedroom, five-bathroom duplex overlooking Central Park that cost $35 million.

     The complaints paint a picture of lavish spending on casinos and private jets and a taste for high-end real estate—an asset that has been an increasingly popular place for the world’s wealthy to stash their cash outside the banking system and inside stable countries. Mr. Low declined to comment. A representative for Mr. Al Qubaisi didn’t reply to requests for comment. Red Granite Pictures, a company owned by Mr. Aziz, said it and Mr. Aziz “did nothing wrong.”

    Mr. Aziz’s New York duplex is by far the most expensive property in the Park Laurel building, a prominent luxury address near Lincoln Center and overlooking Central Park. Mr. Aziz has stayed in the apartment when he visits New York, according to a doorman there.

    A home bought by Mr. Low is located in the so-called Bird Streets in Los Angeles’s Hollywood Hills—a quiet enclave of narrow, twisting roads named after different types of birds. The property on Oriole Drive is a 6-bedroom, 5-bathroom home with a swimming pool, spa and wine cellar, which Mr. Low bought in 2012 for $39 million, according to records. A tall, white wall surrounds the house.

    The Los Angeles home owned by Mr. Aziz on North Hillcrest Road— a winding street just off Sunset Boulevard—was purchased in 2010 for $17.5 million. Security guards on the site Wednesday said that they had no idea who owned the property and that no federal agents had visited.

    The Viceroy L’Ermitage Beverly Hills, the hotel Mr. Low purchased in 2009 through his family’s trust, sits discreetly on a tree-lined, residential street and features a rooftop pool and 116 newly renovated suites. Hotel staff said they hadn’t noticed any unusual activity Wednesday morning.

    Mr. Low owns a majority stake in the Park Lane Hotel, a trophy property overlooking New York’s Central Park. He put up about $240 million of the $400 million of equity provided by the investors who bought the 46-story property in 2013 in a deal that valued it at about $850 million.

    The investor group, led by New York developer Steve Witkoff, planned at the time to continue running the Park Lane as a hotel while studying the possibility of redeveloping the hotel into condominiums or a mixed-use property. But when news broke that Mr. Low was under investigation, those plans were stymied. Such a plan would require approval from the New York state attorney general’s office, an unlikely event when the property’s majority owner was being investigated.

    * * *

    And that kind of magnificent organized crime, dear New Yorkers, is why real estate in Manhattan has never been more expensive.

  • Potential Crisis Triggers Continue To Pile Up In 2016

    Submitted by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

    We are a little over half way through 2016 and, at the current rate, it will be a miracle if the year finishes without outright catastrophe in half the nations of the world. Some might call these events “Black Swans,” some might call them completely engineered threats, others might call it all a simple “coincidence” or a tragedy of errors. I stand strictly by the position that most of the dangers we see today have been deliberately escalated, if not strategically implemented.

    Here is the problem; international financiers and globalist nut-jobs are clearly operating on a timeline with the end goal of creating enough general chaos to convince the masses that complete centralized authority over every aspect of our lives is preferable to constant fear.

    For a more in-depth analysis on the schemes of the elites, see my articles Are Globalists Evil Or Just Misunderstood and Globalists Are Now Openly Demanding New World Order Centralization.

    In order to elicit this kind of thinking from the public, crisis events are required that will cause many human beings to act, for the most part, like rabid animals. How would this be accomplished? Well, what does history tell us about that which inspires people to sometimes sacrifice their moral code or to bow down to tyrants? Usually a loss of necessities is required — including a lack of employment, lack of production, lack of serviceable shelter, lack of ample food and clean water, lack of medical care, lack of overall security and a sense of safety, etc.

    The question often arises: “Why would the elites need to create crisis at all; don’t they already have control of the world?”

    The answer is no, not yet they don’t, and if you read my recent article The Reasons Why The Globalists Are Destined To Lose, you can see why they never will have total control. That said, just because the globalist plan for complete centralization is doomed to fail does not mean they will not do everything in their power to make the attempt.

    Changes in mass psychology that might take decades to achieve can be accomplished in only a few short years if the public is placed under the right amount of duress. I find that younger people (and isolated people who spend all their time on the web) in particular just don’t understand how this works. Look at it this way; you may not think crisis would be all that useful in pushing the globalist agenda forward until you find your family threatened, your children at risk or your parents in dire need. Fear of losing those we love can open the door to great collective evils, even more so than the fear of harm to ourselves.

    Those who have no concept of self defense or the will to prepare and fight are the easiest to manipulate in this way. Pacifists are an effortless meal for dedicated despots.  Hell, for some folks the simple threat of losing day-to-day comforts can cause them to make terrible choices and support destructive leaders and policies.

    Chaos is NOT the end game, it is only a tool by which the elites gain psychological leverage over the masses so that people willingly give up their rights to self determination and hand more power to the establishment.

    A perfect example would be the recent Brexit referendum, the effects of which have not even begun to rise to the economic surface yet. In light of this event, numerous political puppets and banking moguls have declared an outright need for financial centralization of all nations in order to avoid a calamity.

    Investors have been lured into a false sense of safety as equities do not yet reflect the fiscal downturn taking place in every other sector of the global economy, but time grows short nonetheless. The political can negatively affect the financial and vice versa.  Here are just a few of the latest trigger events that are piling up atop an already precarious year…

    Italian Banking Crisis

    Globalists continue to warn that the effects of the Brexit are coming soon, and that they will bring frightening instability. The latest warning comes again from the IMF, which argues that in the wake of the Brexit a banking crisis in Italy is now imminent and will initiate a “global contagion” in markets. The IMF is not wrong – probably because it had a hand in creating the crisis in the first place.

     

    Italy is the third largest economy in the EU. Current estimates project at least $400 billion in toxic debts tied to Italy’s insolvent banks (this obviously does not include the bulk of derivatives). The stock of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS), the world’s oldest bank and Italy’s most vulnerable lender, has dropped by a staggering 43 percent. Most of the EU is inexorably chained to Italian finance through various debt obligations, bond holdings, long term investments, etc. A breakdown in Italy would indeed be a “Lehman moment” for Europe.

     

    In response, the Italian government and the Italian banking sector is seeking taxpayer bailouts from the EU under extraneous circumstances, but EU officials are questioning whether or not this is even legal under EU charter.

     

    They are also hoping that international banks like JP Morgan will successfully form a bailout response for distressed Italian assets and save Italian banks from a hard landing.

     

    It is doubtful that any bailout plan will be enough to stall the shock wave from an Italian bank crisis. I do not believe the elites even intend to defuse such a crisis. With Italy’s own constitutional referendum coming this fall, a political shakeup may result. If a banking disaster is mixed into this shift, the potential for Italy to exit the EU becomes more plausible. A refusal by the EU to save Italian banks would seal the deal.

     

    In my pre-Brexit articles outlining why I believed the Brexit vote would pass, I predicted that numerous instabilities in the global economy would be allowed to turn volatile and that the Brexit would be blamed for nearly all of them. Not surprisingly, the Italian finance minister is already placing the blame for Italy's impending bank implosion on the Brexit vote.

     

    This is the economic event that no one in the mainstream is paying much attention to. Again, as long as stocks remain in the green, the mainstream is oblivious to the underlying dangers. By the time equities begin to plummet, it will be too late for most people to do much to hedge their bets or prepare.

     

    "Failed" Coup In Turkey

    Maybe you thought 2016 was already getting weird, but this ugly party is just beginning. In what amounted to a half-day coup against Turkish president Recep Erdogen, Turkey went from corrupt cronyism to outright fascism overnight.

     

    I am not so sure that this short lived coup actually "failed"; in fact, I think it achieved exactly what it was supposed to achieve.  I am not surprised in the slightest that some believe that Erdogen fabricated the entire conflict in order to provide an excuse to root out his political opponents. The Turkish government has targeted at least 50,000 people so far, including judges, teachers, and political opposition, all in the name of combating "treason". Erdogen has been sliding into ruin for years with failed policies and an increasing penchant for human rights and free speech violations and now he has free reign to go full totalitarian.

     

    That said, I think the claims of an Erdogen false flag are missing the bigger picture.

     

    First, the coup was clearly staged. Anyone who knows anything about successful coups in history knows that you either imprison or kill the existing leadership of a government before you try to take it over militarily. Reports indicate that military insurgents had Erdogen’s plane in their sights and could have easily turned him into a cloud of flaming vapor, but for some reason did not fire.

     

    My instincts told me upon first hearing of the fleeting momentum of the coup that the whole event was not really about Erdogen. Rather, the event was about NATO, or a rationale for dividing NATO and weakening the West. Rather predictably, Erdogen’s government is now blaming the U.S. in particular for the coup attempt, as the Obama administration and the U.N. warn of civil rights violations by Erdogen.  John Kerry has openly suggested removing Turkey from NATO membership.

     

    At this time, Erdogen has allowed U.S. military operations at Incirlik Air Base to continue, but the prospect remains that this is a temporary condition.

     

    It is interesting that as the situation develops it is becoming obvious that whether the coup succeeded or failed the end result would be a rationalization for Turkey to break ranks with NATO and, in particular, America.  Turkey is a vital pivot point for NATO in dealing with the Middle East and Russia. To lose Turkish aid would mean a considerable weakening of NATO operations and open a path to more volatile confrontation between Eastern and Western powers.  Take note that no matter the ultimate outcome of the coup fiasco, the most probable result will be a Turkish break from the West.  If the latest coup is exposed as an Erdogen "false flag", this process will progress very quickly.

     

    I will be watching this situation carefully over the next few weeks, but I suspect that tensions between Erdogen and the U.S. are slated to expand and that Erdogen is about to go full-despot with human rights violations of the worst kind. I also suspect that Erdogen will begin drafting proposals for greater cooperation with Russia in the near term.

     

    The instability in Turkey is an advantage for the globalists. They can use it to undermine NATO operations if they wish. They can flood the EU with even MORE refugees and blame Turkey in the process. They can even help their Frankenstein monster, ISIS, by allowing Turkey to shut down U.S. operations out of Incirlik (as if the U.S. government had any intention of actually stopping ISIS anyway). This could be used as an impetus for a resurgence of ISIS activities.

     

    To summarize, a crisis in Turkey is not only good for Erdogen, it is also good for the globalists. Watch for this trigger event to continue mutating.

     

    Race War In The U.S.

    I have covered extensively the efforts by globalists, and George Soros specifically, to create open wounds in the American social structure and divide the public along racial lines. This has been done by promoting, and in some cases funding, operations of social justice groups (cultural Marxists) and black racist organizations. Black Lives Matter has so far been the vehicle Soros has used to lure useful idiots into championing a race war that has no basis in reality.

     

    While there is in fact a legitimate cause for concern over the militarization of state police, police abuses are in no way limited to any single race. I wrote about the best possible solution to constitutional violations by police organizations in my article The ‘Thin Blue Line’ Serves No Purpose. In it, I outlined why state police, funded by federal cash, should not exist all and that their duties should be by taken over by elected sheriff’s offices and neighborhood watches. This removes the gasoline from the fire and undermines attempts by cultural Marxists to incite race violence.

     

    Of course, this will never happen. Both Republicans and Democrats are calling for even MORE federalization of police in response to the continued shootings of random LEO’s by black activists. The Democrats want more federalization because they think it will reign in violent cops. The Republicans want more federalization because they think it will reign in violent BLM activists. Notice that no other solution is being offered other than more federal presence on American streets.

     

    Keep in mind that the shooting of random police officers is becoming an active trend and it is only going to get worse as we close in on the November elections. Watch for officers to be killed not only while on duty, but also while off duty, perhaps even in their homes.

     

    The goal here is to create an excuse for martial law without necessarily declaring martial law outright. That is to say, the government will enact the conditions of martial law incrementally. This will likely include anonymity of LEO identities — meaning ski masks, hidden badge numbers and zero public accountability, all in the name of “protecting police lives.” Groups like BLM and the social justice cultists that exploit them as a weapon are not a real threat to the public overall and could be crushed in an instant by an angry white majority and militarized police unrestrained by the constitution. But this is not the point.

     

    The militarization and federalization of the police will end in totalitarianism in the U.S. if it receives wide support by conservatives, or widespread civil war if it does not. Police need to refuse to act in an unconstitutional manner even in the face of violence directed against them, otherwise, they risk starting a fight with liberty groups as well. Black Lives Matter would be the least of their worries at that point.

     

    Quick Mention – 28 Page 9/11 Report Release: If you want my in-depth look at the growing rift between Saudi Arabia and the U.S., read my article 'One More Casualty Of The 9/11 Farce – The Petrodollar'.  I am giving this a quick mention because we have yet to hear the full Saudi response to the release of this report.  The original threat was that they would dump their U.S. treasury holdings and depeg their currency from the dollar.  This would officially end the petro-status of the dollar and eventually end the dollar's world reserve status as well.  I believe that if the Saudi's do take this action, they will do it quietly before bond markets and oil markets realize what is happening.  It is likely that a Saudi break from the U.S. will occur quickly in the event of a Trump presidency.

     

    Quick Mention – South China Sea Build Up: A prelude to WWIII?  Maybe, maybe not.  China and the U.S. have been sparring politically over the South China Sea for some time.   An international ruling has argued that China has no legitimate claims to the waters nor any territorial history.  This has led to greater tensions.  The latest build up of naval units in the region is concerning, but there has not yet been a true catalyst to instigate a war.  This is another scenario which may not materialize until next year, if it materializes at all.

    The overall purpose of these events, I believe, is first to conjure mass confusion. The globalists are turning up the heat on the citizenry much faster than ever before, and it is time to take stock of our position and response. The best defense, as I have always stated, is personal preparedness and self sufficiency, organization with friends and family, then organization of the like-minded within your neighborhood and if possible your town. Most people are self-isolated and thus weak in their defensive position. Anyone effectively organized will have far reaching advantages in the midst of social breakdown. Anyone who is organized with solid planning will become the point to which everyone else gravitates. You can either be a pillar of strength or a victim, it is your choice.

    Rest assured, there is more shock and awe to come in 2016. Now is the time to prepare if you have not done so already.

  • How Much Space Does $1,500 Rent You In America's Most Populous Cities?

    While location, location, location is something that is empasized a lot, the best places often come with compromises that are hard to come to terms with – chief among which, the financial matters. Across the 30 most populous US cities, the following chart from CafeRent.com shows how much bang you get for your buck…

    (click image for interactive version)

     

    For the record, the proportions in this infographic are correct – if San Diego seems twice as large as San Francisco, it’s because its average price per square foot is half that of the Golden Gate City. And in case you were wondering: yes, the hypothetical Manhattan studio that you’d get for $1,500/month, fits loosely inside the living room of a four-bed, three-bath Memphis home you could rent for the same amount of cash:

    In Boston’s 41 Saratoga community, one could rent a 386-square-foot studio unit for that price, and for an extra $100, that space could “grow” to 513 square feet. Although the apartments seem to lack bedroom furniture, they are brand new, featuring open floor plans with hardwood flooring, granite countertops and stainless steel appliances.

    In the right column, Southport Crossing in Indianapolis offers three-bed townhome layouts with 2.5 baths in a broad price range topping out at a little over $1,600. The amenities here include a resort-style swimming pool as part of the common space, and individual units come with up to 400 square feet of enclosed patio area.

    Read more here at RentCafe.com…

  • "My Own People Hate Me!" – Black Brooklyn Cop Slams "False Narrative Of Black Lives Matter"

    Authored by Brooklyn, NY police officer Jay Stalien (via Facebook),

    I have come to realize something that is still hard for me to understand to this day. The following may be a shock to some coming from an African American, but the mere fact that it may be shocking to some is prima facie evidence of the sad state of affairs that we are in as Humans.

    I used to be so torn inside growing up. Here I am, a young African-American born and raised in Brooklyn, NY wanting to be a cop. I watched and lived through the crime that took place in the hood. My own black people killing others over nothing. Crack heads and heroin addicts lined the lobby of my building as I shuffled around them to make my way to our 1 bedroom apartment with 6 of us living inside. I used to be woken up in the middle of the night by the sound of gun fire, only to look outside and see that it was 2 African Americans shooting at each other.

    It never sat right with me. I wanted to help my community and stop watching the blood of African Americans spilled on the street at the hands of a fellow black man. I became a cop because black lives in my community, along with ALL lives, mattered to me, and wanted to help stop the bloodshed.

    As time went by in my law enforcement career, I quickly began to realize something. I remember the countless times I stood 2 inches from a young black man, around my age, laying on his back, gasping for air as blood filled his lungs. I remember them bleeding profusely with the unforgettable smell of deoxygenated dark red blood in the air, as it leaked from the bullet holes in his body on to the hot sidewalk on a summer day. I remember the countless family members who attacked me, spit on me, cursed me out, as I put up crime scene tape to cordon off the crime scene, yelling and screaming out of pain and anger at the sight of their loved ones taking their last breath. I never took it personally, I knew they were hurting. I remember the countless times I had to order new uniforms, because the ones I had on, were bloody from the blood of another black victim…of black on black crime. I remember the countless times I got back in my patrol car, distraught after having watched another black male die in front me, having to start my preliminary report something like this:

    Suspect- Black/ Male, Victim-Black /Male.

    I remember the countless times I canvassed the area afterwards, and asked everyone “did you see who did it”, and the popular response from the very same family members was always, “Fuck the Police, I ain't no snitch, Im gonna take care of this myself". This happened every single time, every single homicide, black on black, and then my realization became clearer.

    I woke up every morning, put my freshly pressed uniform on, shined my badge, functioned checked my weapon, kissed my wife and kid, and waited for my wife to say the same thing she always does before I leave, “Make sure you come back home to us”. I always replied, “I will”, but the truth was I was never sure if I would. I almost lost my life on this job, and every call, every stop, every moment that I had this uniform on, was another possibility for me to almost lose my life again. I was a target in the very community I swore to protect, the very community I wanted to help. As a matter of fact, they hated my very presence. They called me “Uncle Tom”, and “wanna be white boy”, and I couldn’t understand why. My own fellow black men and women attacking me, wishing for my death, wishing for the death of my family. I was so confused, so torn, I couldn’t understand why my own black people would turn against me, when every time they called …I was there. Every time someone died….I was there. Every time they were going through one of the worst moments in their lives…I was there. So why was I the enemy? I dove deep into that question…Why was I the enemy? Then my realization became clearer.

    I spoke to members of the community and listened to some of the complaints as to why they hated cops. I then did research on the facts. I also presented facts to these members of the community, and listened to their complaints in response. This is what I learned:

    Complaint: Police always targeting us, they always messing with the black man.

     

    Fact: A city where the majority of citizens are black (Baltimore for example) …will ALWAYS have a higher rate of black people getting arrested, it will ALWAYS have a higher rate of blacks getting stopped, and will ALWAYS have a higher rate of blacks getting killed, and the reason why is because a city with those characteristics will ALWAYS have a higher rate of blacks committing crime. The statistics will follow the same trend for Asians if you go to China, for Hispanics if you go to Puerto Rico, for whites if you go to Russia, and the list goes on. It’s called Demographics

     

    Complaint: More black people get arrested than white boys.

     

    Fact: Black People commit a grossly disproportionate amount of crime. Data from the FBI shows that Nationwide, Blacks committed 5,173 homicides in 2014, whites committed 4,367. Chicago’s death toll is almost equal to that of both wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, combined. Chicago’s death toll from 2001–November, 26 2015 stands at 7,401. The combined total deaths during Operation Iraqi Freedom (2003-2015: 4,815) and Operation Enduring Freedom/Afghanistan (2001-2015: 3,506), total 8,321.

     

    Complaint: Blacks are the only ones getting killed by police, or they are killed more.

     

    Fact: As of July 2016, the breakdown of the number of US Citizens killed by Police this year is, 238 White people killed, 123 Black people killed, 79 Hispanics, 69 other/or unknown race.

     

    Complaint: Well we already doing a good job of killing ourselves, we don’t need the Police to do it. Besides they should know better.

     

    Fact: Black people kill more other blacks than Police do, and there are only protest and outrage when a cop kills a black man. University of Toledo criminologist Dr. Richard R. Johnson examined the latest crime data from the FBI’s Supplementary Homicide Reports and Centers for Disease Control and found that an average of 4,472 black men were killed by other black men annually between Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2012. Professor Johnson’s research further concluded that 112 black men died from both justified and unjustified police-involved killings annually during this same period.

    The more I listened, the more I realized. The more I researched, the more I realized. I would ask questions, and would only get emotional responses & inferences based on no facts at all. The more killing I saw, the more tragedy, the more savagery, the more violence, the more loss of life of a black man at the hands of another black man….the more I realized.

    I haven’t slept well in the past few nights. Heartbreak weighs me down, rage flows through my veins, and tears fills my eyes. I watched my fellow officers assassinated on live television, and the images of them laying on the ground are seared into my brain forever. I couldn’t help but wonder if it had been me, a black man, a black cop, on TV, assassinated, laying on the ground dead… would my friends and family still think black lives mattered? Would my life have mattered? Would they make t-shirts in remembrance of me? Would they go on tv and protest violence? Would they even make a Facebook post, or share a post in reference to my death?

    All of my realizations came to this conclusion.

    Black Lives do not matter to most black people. Only the lives that make the national news matter to them. Only the lives that are taken at the hands of cops or white people, matter. The other thousands of lives lost, the other black souls that I along with every cop, have seen taken at the hands of other blacks, do not matter. Their deaths are unnoticed, accepted as the “norm”, and swept underneath the rug by the very people who claim and post “black lives matter”.

     

    I realized that this country is full of ignorance, where an educated individual will watch the ratings-driven news media, and watch a couple YouTube video clips, and then come to the conclusion that they have all the knowledge they need to have in order to know what it feels like to have a bullet proof vest as part of your office equipment, “Stay Alive” as part of your daily to do list, and having insurance for your health insurance because of the high rate of death in your profession. They watch a couple videos and then they magically know in 2 minutes 35 seconds, how you are supposed to handle a violent encounter, which took you 6 months of Academy training, 2 – 3 months of field training, and countless years of blood, sweat, tears and broken bones experiencing violent encounters and fine tuning your execution of the Use of Force Continuum.

     

    I realized that there are even cops, COPS, duly sworn law enforcement officers, who are supposed to be decent investigators, who will publicly go on the media and call other white cops racist and KKK, based on a video clip that they watched thousands of miles away, which was filmed after the fact, based on a case where the details aren’t even known yet and the investigation hasn’t even begun.

     

    I realized that most in the African American community refuse to look at solving the bigger problem that I see and deal with every day, which is black on black crime taking hundreds of innocent black lives each year, and instead focus on the 9 questionable deaths of black men, where some were in the act of committing crimes.

     

    I realized that they value the life of a Sex Offender and Convicted Felon, [who was in the act of committing multiple felonies: felon in possession of a firearm-FELONY, brandishing and threatening a homeless man with a gun-Aggravated Assault in Florida: FELONY, who resisted officers who first tried to taze him, and WAS NOT RESTRAINED, who can be clearly seen in one of the videos raising his right shoulder, then shooting it down towards the right side of his body exactly where the firearm was located and recovered] more than the lives of the innocent cops who were assassinated in Dallas protecting the very people that hated them the most.

     

    I realized that they refuse to believe that most cops acknowledge that there are Bad cops who should have never been given a badge & gun, who are chicken shit and will shoot a cockroach if it crawls at them too fast, who never worked in the hood and may be intimidated. That most cops dread the thought of having to shoot someone, and never see the turmoil and mental anguish that a cop goes through after having to kill someone to save his own life. Instead they believe that we are all blood thirsty killers, because the media says so, even though the numbers prove otherwise.

     

    I realize that they truly feel as if the death of cops will help people realize the false narrative that Black Lives Matter, when all it will do is take their movement two steps backwards and label them domestic terrorist.

     

    I realized that some of these people, who say Black Lives Matter, are full of hate and racism. Hate for cops, because of the false narrative that more black people are targeted and killed. Racism against white people, for a tragedy that began 100’s of years ago, when most of the white people today weren’t even born yet.

     

    I realized that some in the African American community’s idea of “Justice” is the prosecution of ANY and EVERY cop or white man that kills or is believed to have killed a black man, no matter what the circumstances are.

     

    I realized the African American community refuses to look within to solve its major issues, and instead makes excuses and looks outside for solutions. I realized that a lot of people in the African American community lead with hate, instead of love. Division instead of Unity. Turmoil and rioting, instead of Peace.

     

    I realized that they have become the very entity that they claim they are fighting against.

    And ultimately, I realized that the very reasons I became a cop, are the very reasons my own people hate me, and now in this toxic hateful racially charged political climate, I am now more likely to die… and it is still hard for me to understand… to this day.

  • Visualizing The Volatile History Of Crude Oil Markets

    Crude oil is the world’s most actively traded commodity (and today’s chaos evidenced that perfectly), and oil-related markets are a staple for traders, hedgers, investors around the globe. The below infographic, put together by Aspect, covers the history of crude oil trading, while also highlighting the major events that have shaped the landscape of the oil market as we know it today.

    As VisualCapitalist’s Jeff Desjardins points out, the infographic serves as the perfect primer for all the questions about oil that you had, yet were afraid to ask. It also illustrates the impact that unexpected geopolitical events can have on the oil price – and how this volatility can be contagious to other global markets.

    Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

  • George Soros Doubles Down: Accept 300k Refugees Costing $30Bn, Or Risk EU Collapse

    Seemingly doubling down on his comments in April (following what he called Europe's "flawed asylum policy"), George Soros has expanded his demands from four to seven fundamental pillars on how to prevent the collapse of the European Union. In an article penned for Foreign Policy titled “This Is Europe’s Last Chance to Fix Its Refugee Policy," Soros details his plan (over-riding the current "piecemeal approach") for rescuing Europe before it is too late. Simply put, the billionaire says the EU must take in hundreds of thousands of refugees a year, spend at least 30 billion euros (a minor sum, since he believes it can all be financed by debt and taxes) or Europe faces an "existential threat."

    Soros begins ominously: The EU’s piecemeal solutions are coming apart. Only a surge of financial and political creativity can avoid a catastrophe.

    The refugee crisis was already leading to the slow disintegration of the European Union. Then, on June 23, it contributed to an even greater calamity — Brexit. Both of these crises have reinforced xenophobic, nationalist movements across the continent. They will try to win a series of key votes in the coming year — including national elections in France, the Netherlands, and Germany in 2017, a referendum in Hungary on EU refugee policy on Oct. 2, a rerun of the Austrian presidential election on the same day, and a constitutional referendum in Italy in October or November of this year.

     

    Rather than uniting to resist this threat, EU member states have become increasingly unwilling to cooperate with one another. They pursue self-serving, discordant migration policies, often to the detriment of their neighbors. In these circumstances, a comprehensive and coherent European asylum policy is not possible in the short term, despite the efforts of the EU’s governing body, the European Commission. The trust needed for cooperation is lacking. It will have to be rebuilt through a long and laborious process.

     

    This is unfortunate, because a comprehensive policy ought to remain the highest priority for European leaders; the union cannot survive without it. The refugee crisis is not a one-off event; it augurs a period of higher migration pressures for the foreseeable future, due to a variety of causes including demographic and economic imbalances between Europe and Africa, unending conflicts in the broader region, and climate change. Beggar-thy-neighbor migration policies, such as building border fences, will not only further fragment the union; they also seriously damage European economies and subvert global human rights standards.

     

    What would a comprehensive approach look like? It would establish a guaranteed target of at least 300,000 refugees each year who would be securely resettled directly to Europe from the Middle East — a total that hopefully would be matched by countries elsewhere in the world. That target should be large enough to persuade genuine asylum-seekers not to risk their lives by crossing the Mediterranean Sea, especially if reaching Europe by irregular means would disqualify them from being considered genuine asylum-seekers.

     

    This could serve as the basis for Europe to provide sufficient funds for major refugee-hosting countries outside Europe and establish processing centers in those countries; create a potent EU border and coast guard; set common standards for processing and integrating asylum-seekers (and for returning those who do not qualify); and renegotiate the Dublin III Regulation in order to more fairly share the asylum burden across the EU.

    And, as ValueWalk's Jacob Wolinksy notes, specifically Soros thinks the seven points below are key…

    First, the EU and the rest of the world must take in a substantial number of refugees directly from front-line countries in a secure and orderly manner, which would be far more acceptable to the public than the current disorder…

     

    Second, the EU must regain control of its borders. There is little that alienates and scares publics more than scenes of chaos…

     

    Third, the EU needs to develop financial tools that can provide sufficient funds for the long-term challenges it faces and not limp from episode to episode…

     

    Fourth, the crisis must be used to build common European mechanisms for protecting borders, determining asylum claims, and relocating refugees…

     

    Fifth, once refugees have been recognized, there needs to be a mechanism for relocating them within Europe in an agreed way

     

    Sixth, the European Union, together with the international community, must support foreign refugee-hosting countries far more generously than it currently does

     

    The seventh and final pillar is that, given its aging population, Europe must eventually create an environment in which economic migration is welcome.

    Soros concludes as follows:

    The benefits brought by migration far outweigh the costs of integrating immigrants. Skilled economic immigrants improve productivity, generate growth, and raise the absorptive capacity of the recipient country. Different populations bring different skills, but the contributions come as much from the innovations they introduce as from their specific skills — in both their countries of origin and their countries of destination. There is plenty of anecdotal evidence for this, starting with the Huguenots’ contribution to the first industrial revolution by bringing both weaving and banking to England. All the evidence supports the conclusion that migrants have a high potential to contribute to innovation and development if they are given a chance to do so.

     

    Pursuing these seven principles is essential in order to calm public fears, reduce chaotic flows of asylum-seekers, ensure that newcomers are fully integrated, establish mutually beneficial relations with countries in the Middle East and Africa, and meet Europe’s international humanitarian obligations.

     

    The refugee crisis is not the only crisis Europe has to face, but it is the most pressing. And if significant progress could be made on the refugee issue, it would make the other issues — from the continuing Greek debt crisis to the fallout from Brexit to the challenge posed by Russia — easier to tackle. All the pieces need to fit together, and the chances of success remain slim. But as long as there is a strategy that might succeed, all the people who want the European Union to survive should rally behind it.

    Interestingly, Soros goes back hundreds of years to give us the examples Huguenots and not fifty years to when France starting letting in migrants from Algeria and Morocco – so far the much recent plan has been a failure most would agree even before the recent terror attack in Nice. While hope continues to spring eternal (for many establishmentarians) that the EU stays together, we can't help but suspect that spending 30 billion euros a year (funded by taxing or indebting EU citizens more) and letting in 'even' 300,000 refugees a year when the social fabric of the looming super-state is near collapse, terrorist attacks are increasing, and unemployment in many European countries is in double digits – will likely be a non-starter.

    Soros' full treatise can be found here…

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