• Is The European Union About To Rupture?
  Is The European Union About To Rupture?

  Authored by Tuomas Malinen via The Epoch Times,

  The possible, even likely, collapse of the European economy would inflict some heavy costs to present European institutions. In this entry, Dr. Peter Nyberg and I detail why we believe we are likely to see some rupturing of the European Union (EU) as originally conceived.

  

  This may occur in two ways: Either the European Union disintegrates completely, or it mutates into something unrecognizable to its original purpose. This comment concentrates on some of the factors causing disintegration.

  The functioning of the EU has, until recently, been built on two political pillars that now appear to be crumbling. Primarily, German growth has made possible the joint financing (through low-cost debt, the EU budget, and the central banks’ clearing system) of unsuccessful economies without the EU forcing them to commit to politically unacceptable reforms. Beneficent global developments have made possible the concentration on economic integration while going slow on the much more contentious integration of cultural, social, and foreign policies.

  The deterioration of the global economy, together with EU policies, now threaten industry and living standards in EU member states, reduce the scope of joint economic support, and force member states to rapidly evaluate their readiness for possibly radical reductions in their political self-determination. This is most evident in Italy.

  The yields of Italian sovereign debt have reached levels that can be considered unsustainable, given the country’s high indebtedness and low rate of economic growth. For example, the yield of the Italian 10-year bond breached the 4 percent line late this past week. The maturity structure of Italian debt is also rather unfavorable. At the end of June, for example, Italy had issued only 52 percent of its needs for external financing in 2022. In addition, 35 percent of her outstanding debt will come due already in 2024. Half of her total debt will come due within five years.

  Without active country-specific support from the European Central Bank (ECB), which the newly introduced Transmission Protection Instrument is designed to facilitate, Italian debt is unsustainable at current yields. Disagreements among member states on the wisdom of filling the ECB with Italian bonds is bound to weaken the glue keeping the EU together as before.

  The energy crisis is also sowing seeds of serious inner conflict. The politics in the EU are becoming less forgiving as difficulties mount.

  Contentious Issues Piling Up

  Both Hungary and the Czech Republic have objected to the plans for a price cap of Russian gas, which now looks unlikely to be enforced. The European Commission is also planning to cut funding for the Hungarian government of Victor Orban due to “rule-of-law concerns.” This is unlikely to increase the incentives of Hungary to stay in the union. More generally, as funding is made conditional on countries meeting the test of adhering to “European values,” one can expect the list of such essentially political requirements to grow as economic conditions worsen and demands for uniform policies grow.

  For example, Poland is fed up with constant extra demands from the EU, like the demand to walk back from the changes Polish government was planning to the judicial system, considering the distribution of funds from the Recovery Fund to its government. Krzysztof Sobolewski, the governing party’s secretary-general, has warned that without a clear change in the actions of Brussels, “We will have no choice but to pull out all the cannons in our arsenal and open fire.” Since a number of contentious decisions still require unanimity, such a threat might be unwise to take lightly.

  Fault lines are also emerging regarding the Russia sanctions.

  Moderation in this respect, as ultimately needed by Germany and especially Italy, is not readily accepted (and may even attract internal sanctions). Russia naturally uses existing differences to reduce the cohesion of the EU. Reports state that Russia is preparing a first shipment from its new liquefied natural gas plant to Greece. Hungary, as an outlier, is buying additional gas from Russia in accordance with their new agreement. It will be interesting to see what Germany may choose to do if the impact of energy scarcity on its economy and population is as large as some reports suggest.

  Besides financially, Italy is also between a “rock and a hard place” on gas issues. While she has been able to cut Russian gas imports from around 40 percent to 15–20 percent, it’s becoming practically impossible to cut them much further. There are serious bottlenecks dictating how much gas can be transferred from south to north Italy. Essentially, only a sufficient Russian gas supply can keep the lights on in the north of Italy, which is also the industrial hub of the country.

  Practically, this means that President Vladimir Putin has the ability to push Italy into a deep recession and create yet another economic basket case in the EU. This time Germany may not be able to guarantee the financing needed for saving Italian companies and the nation’s banks. If so, yet another debt crisis may well come ablaze in the eurozone. The question is, will the new government of Italy just sit and wait for this, or will it perhaps insist that the EU or itself negotiate a deal with Russia?

  So, how will the EU respond to these threats?

  We are assuming that European Commission is at some point encouraged to propose a Recovery Fund 2.0, which would need to be considerably larger than the previous one (of around €800 billion). The fund would provide financing for countries to cope with rising energy prices as well as to help the bond markets of Italy, and others, retain market confidence. The ECB may even be forced to restart quantitative easing while it raises rates. Indeed, this may already be happening, as the balance sheet of the ECB has grown by some €13 billion since mid-August.

  The commission is likely to try to gather more power for itself through essentially un-constitutional demands, like the preposterous “mandatory demand cut” for electricity consumption. The commission has no right, legally or otherwise, to prescribe such an action from member states, though reducing demand by itself is a sensible policy at this point and could be the subject of a commission suggestion.

  The question remains, will all the member states “play ball” in this and coming issues? We are not so sure.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/19/2022 – 02:00

• Are You Ready For Societal Winter?
  Are You Ready For Societal Winter?

  Authored by James Wesley Rawles via SurvivalBlog.com,

  Many of you reading this are ready for winter, both literally and figuratively. Your firewood is stacked and your kindling is split. Your barn is stacked full of hay. Your larder is crammed full of food. Your fuel tanks are topped off. And your home armory is “dialed-in”, with its walls comfortably stacked with ammo cans.  But some of you reading this are not nearly so well prepared. Whether by lack of resolve or lack of resources, you aren’t ready for the manifold challenges of the 21st Century.

  

  Winter is coming. The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts that the winter of 2022-2023 will be harsh, for most of the country. And in Western Europe, the winter will surely be an uncomfortable one, since the Russians have embargoed natural gas.

  Far worse than the predicted La Niña winter in North America, we are also entering what I term a Societal Winter: An era of rancorous discontent between political factions here in the United States that is replete with iciness, and dismissiveness, by The Powers That Be. With divisive “Woke” rhetoric and plenty of finger-pointing, people are feeling a lot less “United” these days. From my vantage point here in the rural Northern Rockies, it appeared that immediately after Joe Biden and his activist cabinet took office in D.C., the Mainstream Media (MSM) cranked the Acrimony knob all the way up to “11.”  (For those not familiar, the 11 is a reference to the mockumentary This Is Spinal Tap.)

  All signs now point to the advent of a deep and long Societal Winter.

  Here are some key indicators of an incipient Societal Winter:

  • The “us versus them” chatter in social media has become more extreme and pronounced.

  • The homes of Supreme Court justices have been picketed and blasted by vile shouts and taunts on bullhorns.

  • Ex-Presidents now frequently criticize the sitting President and other former Presidents. (That was heretofore considered a no-no.)

  • There is seemingly no more middle ground in American politics. The “debate” and “conversation” have been turned into one-sided lectures by the left.

  • The divide between Red States and Blue States has deepened, prompting many conservatives to “vote with their feet.” The American Redoubt movement is just one manifestation of this.

  • The stage-managed and quite partisan congressional hearings on the unarmed January 6th “insurrection”.

  • The FBI and DOJ have been used as weapons against political opponents of Biden & Company. The experiences of Roger Stone and Mike Lindell are indicative.

  • The ATF has begun to issue edicts on gun parts that go far beyond their legislated mandate. (They should take note of the recent West Virginia v. EPA decision — Federal agencies enforce laws. They are not supposed to create laws.) The ATF edicts have turned parts that they had previously approved into felonies. In just the past three years, the ATF has issued controversial rulings on bumpstocks, solvent traps, forced reset triggers, auto key cards, arm braces, and 80% complete receivers that are sold along with drilling fixtures and parts sets.

  • The IRS plans to add 87,000 new employees, and many people fear that they will be targeting conservative small business owners with audits.

  • Politically-motivated “swatting” is on the rise.

  • The homosexual rights movement has been co-opted by militant trans-sexual crusaders. They’ve also infiltrated public schools and now seem to be proud of grooming children.

  • Mask mandates and vaccine mandates have been politicized and used as weapons to purge conservatives from the military.

  • A $500 billion student loan forgiveness scheme that is just a thinly-veiled gambit to buy votes.

  • The Governor of New York recently taunted conservatives, and suggested that they leave the state.

  • Search engine and social media searches are manipulated, via algorithms.

  • Conservatives have been systematically de-platformed, de-funded, de-banked, and de-ranked from search engine results. On this, I’m not spouting hyperbole. I’m writing this from personal experience. In late 2021, my own bank account that I’d held for nearly 20 years with never a bounced check was canceled on short notice, with no reason given. And, because of the way that search engine results are algorithmically ranked, I’ve lost 30% of my blog’s readership over the past 10 years. Just do a web search on the word “preparedness”, and scroll through the results. You will see that 95% of the results in the first 10 pages point to government web pages. In contrast, do a web search on the more precise phrase “n”, and see what results. So… The truth is out there, but the tech titans are doing their best to conceal it.

  • Mainstream journalists have dropped any pretense of objective reporting.

  • Joe Biden recently has given speeches where he castigated conservatives, terming us “a threat to democracy” and “semi-fascists.”  Using labels like that puts targets on our backs. In effect, he declared about half of the population enemies of the state.

  • Politically-motivated prosecutions of former Trump White House staff members.

  • American society’s long-standing tacit agreement to show restraint at public meetings seems to have been dropped. In response, governments have clamped down on dissenters.

  • Vocal dissent has now expanded to local school board meetings and library board meetings.

  • Character assassination of those with dissenting voices is now carried out on a grand scale, via skewed polls, social media bot influence, “reports” from pressure groups like the SPLC, slanted news reporting, and the overt manipulation of Wikipedia.

  • A cozy relationship has developed between government officials — who are constitutionally barred from censorship — and the tech titans who operate social media platforms – who feel that they can censor their users.  Some of the tech moguls have admitted that they engaged in censorship and swayed elections “in partnership” with the government. And we’ve all read that the Federal government had plans to create an Orwellian Disinformation Bureau.

  • Gun violence restraining orders (GVROs) / extreme risk protective orders (ERPOs) — a.k.a. “Red Flag” laws have been used to exercise ill will, often regarding grudges and even political differences, by the police or within families. This seems to have already increased, in the city and county of San Francisco. In the past year, San Francisco judges have issued more Red Flag court orders than in the rest of the state, combined.

  • The overturn of the Roe v. Wade decision infuriated many liberals, to the point of some of them demanding defiance of the court order and that the court be expanded, to create a majority of liberal justices.

  So, where does all of this lead us? I believe that it will lead to a winter of discontent, possibly lasting for many years, and perhaps with polarization worsening to the point of Balkanization of the 50 States and even civil war.

  WE’LL ALL FEEL THE COLD

  Even if you live in the hinterboonies, don’t expect to be immune from the effects of the nascent Societal Winter. I predict that a lot of these effects will come “top-down”, by orders issued by the Federal government, over the course of several successive Democrat or RINO administrations. Just like the Europeans now facing a government-mandated chilly winter in under-heated homes this winter, we can expect to feel the cold gaze of both liberal elitists and The Woke, in the years to come.

  I can foresee that their wrath will be felt in many ways. For example: Higher income taxes, higher fuel taxes, a Federal “per-mile” tax on private highway travel, draconian new gun laws, politically-targeted IRS tax audits, the “dumping” of busloads (or Amtrak trainloads) of illegal aliens in rural towns, Federally-imposed leftist school curricula, umpteen new un-funded Federal mandates on the states, the forced phase-out of internal combustion engine light cars and trucks, the imposition of a Social Credit Score system, manipulated interest rates that will devastate the national economy, the “apportionment” of power grid resources–favoring Blue cities and states, continued government over-spending that is wrecking the purchasing power of the Dollar, Federal over-ride of state fish and game laws, increasingly stringent EPA and OSHA regulations, and a military draft that may include both our sons and our daughters.

  If socialists, Marxists, Maoists, fascists, or other collectivists eventually consolidate power, then they will surely make attempts at overtly controlling businesses that go far beyond the already repugnant taxes and minimum wages. How? They could legislate hiring metrics that will arbitrarily dictate the percentage of minorities, immigrants, ex-convicts, mentally ill, simple-minded, and sexual deviants. Or the percentage of members of various religions. Or the percentage of members of various political parties. This forced hiring would be mandated regardless of the qualifications or the merits of applicants. In California, they already attempted to mandate the racial composition of corporate boards. (That was found unconstitutional by the courts, a few months ago.) There could also be attempts to limit farmers and ranchers in the production of livestock. By the way, this was just recently announced in The Netherlands. That triggered massive protests that were clearly downplayed by the American mainstream media. Just imagine a law dictating that 50% of firefighters, or military members, or professional athletes be women, or that 10% of new hires be people that are physically or mentally handicapped? Perhaps Kurt Vonnegut’s fictional Harrison Bergeron wasn’t so fictional, after all.

  Collectivists might also take advantage of times of emergency — whether real or fabricated — to simply seize packaged foodstuffs, livestock, farm produce, and/or fish catches.  Dictatorial collectivists never learn from history.  The term “seizing power” might take on a new meaning, in this era of grid-tied photovoltaic power systems and net metering.  (“It is all for the public good, comrade.”)

  And what if any of the 50 States start making secession noises?  I’m sure that the Federal authorities will find ways to severely penalize and downright punish any such states, economically.

  Some of the measures that I’ve outlined might seem outrageous or downright inconceivable. Take a minute to read this recent news article: RAF ‘pauses job offers for white men’ to meet ‘impossible’ diversity targets.

  INCREMENTAL TYRANNY

  Just consider how socialists operate: by incrementalism. Here is their time-proven game plan in a nutshell: “Good ideas” morph into “suggestions”, then “guidelines”, then “targets”, and finally into “mandates” with penalties for noncompliance. The busybodies and do-gooders have already instituted a myriad of laws and taxes, and yet surprisingly there hasn’t been a revolt. They won’t stop adding more laws, new taxes, increased monitoring/surveillance, higher fines/penalties, more licenses, more permit inspections, additional fees, and new reparations to the point that they dictate just about every aspect of our lives. It is as if they want to turn America into an enormous Homeowner’s Association (HOA). It is all about control and power — and they want every bit of it.

  We are facing a very cold Societal Winter, indeed. Nothing cuts to the bone quite like the icy gaze of someone in a position of authority–especially when they are backed by the might of law enforcement and the armed forces.

  In closing, I’d like to remind my readers that the Greek general and politician Pericles once famously wrote: “Just because you do not take an interest in politics doesn’t mean politics won’t take an interest in you.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 09/18/2022 – 23:30

• High School Defends Trans Teacher Who Wore Massive Fake Breasts To Class
  High School Defends Trans Teacher Who Wore Massive Fake Breasts To Class

  No, this is not Babylon Bee or The Onion!

  A Canadian high school teacher has sparked controversy after pictures emerged of her wearing large breast prosthetics while teaching students.

  Kayla Lemieux, a Manufacturing Technology teacher at Oakville Trafalgar High School in Ontario, who began transitioning from being male to a female a year ago, has gone viral online after students took photos and videos of the teacher, seemingly without her knowledge.

  

  As Anna Slatz reports at reduxx.info, the teacher is seen wearing an extremely prominent prosthetic bust, one which clearly outlines the nipples through his tight shirt. He is also donning a bright blonde wig and short-shorts.

  

  In response, the high school defended their employee, writing to parents and explaining why they support Ms Lemieux’s gender expression, Reduxx reports.

  In a statement to parents, the school said:

  “As a school within the Halton District School Board (HDSB), Oakville Trafalgar High School recognizes the rights of students, staff, parents/guardians and community members to equitable treatment without discrimination based upon gender identity and gender expression.

  We strive to promote a positive learning environment in schools consistent with the values of the HDSB and to ensure a safe and inclusive environment for all students, staff and the community, regardless of race, age, ability, sex, gender identity, gender expression, sexual orientation, ethnicity, religion, cultural observance, socioeconomic circumstances or body type/size.”

  HDSB Chair Margo Shuttleworth told the Toronto Sun that “This teacher (who teaches shop) is an extremely effective teacher,” adding that “all the kids really love being in the class.”

  Some students have recorded images of the trans teacher at Oakville Trafalgar High School in Ontario, Canada and put them on social media: pic.twitter.com/QzsFtqauZq

  — Andy Ngô 🏳️‍🌈 (@MrAndyNgo) September 17, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The school is said to be expecting protests when it opens on Monday since the photos went viral.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 09/18/2022 – 23:00

• Martha's Vineyard Is Just The Start: Ron DeSantis Has Big Plans On Immigration
  Martha’s Vineyard Is Just The Start: Ron DeSantis Has Big Plans On Immigration

  Authored by W.James Antle III via 19fortyfive.com,

  Ron DeSantis’ Immigration Moves Not Limited to Martha’s Vineyard: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has been trying to establish himself as a conservative leader on a number of issues. The latest is immigration.

  

  Like other Republican governors, DeSantis is trying to contrast himself with the policies of President Joe Biden. Before inflation, there was no greater flashpoint than immigration. 

  DeSantis wants faraway affluent liberal communities to get a small sense of what the Biden-era migrant surge is doing to border communities. The residents of Martha’s Vineyard are not amused. 

  But there is more to DeSantis’ immigration insurgency than dropping undocumented migrants off in blue cities (something the Biden administration itself might be contemplating).

  The Florida governor is vying for leadership of the populist and nationalist right, ascendant factions of the conservative movement and Republican Party, as surely as he is seeking reelection in November. This would position DeSantis well to compete for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024.

  Speaking to the third U.S.-based National Conservatism Conference in Miami, DeSantis spoke differently about immigration than previous Republicans favored by movement conservative leaders and big-money GOP donors. He argued America’s capacity for mass immigration has its limits.

  “We’ve had periods where we had high immigration levels that we have had success, we’ve also had periods where we have great success with immigration levels being very low, such as … [in] the decades after World War II,” Ron DeSantis told the conservative gathering in his keynote address, referencing the period before the 1965 Immigration Act.

  “So the issue is, how does immigration serve the people of the United States and the national interest?” he continued.

  “We’re not globalists who believe that foreigners have a right to come into our country whenever they want to.”

  This is a much less romantic way of talking about immigration than past Republican leaders like former President George W. Bush. It is also a more systematic approach than former President Donald Trump, whose own immigration policies represented a profound break with Bush’s.

  But even with advisers like Stephen Miller and his erstwhile boss, former Attorney General Jeff Sessions, Trump couldn’t always articulate an alternative vision that could compete with the Republican establishment view on these matters.

  DeSantis wraps his populist critique of the Robert Bartley/Wall Street Journal editorial page’s free-market defense of more or less open borders in his broader rejection of corporatism and woke capitalism.

  “The United States is a nation that has an economy, not the other way around,” DeSantis said, again at the natcon conference.

  “Our economy should be geared towards helping our own people.”

  What does that mean?

  “I’m not a central planner. I don’t want to be doing that,” he began.

  “But corporatism is not the same as free enterprise. Too many Republicans have viewed limited government to basically mean whatever is best for corporate America is how we want to do the economy. And my view is, obviously free enterprise is the best economic system.”

  That doesn’t mean that what’s good for General Electric or General Motors is necessarily good for America, at least not in 2022.

  “But that is a means to an end,” Ron DeSantis said of the free market.

  “It’s a means to having a good fulfilling life and a prosperous society. It’s not an end in and of itself, and we need to make sure that we have that firmly in mind.”

  It’s not hard to see how such a vision can spiral out of control, as libertarians will be quick to remind conservatives. But it’s also not the first time conservatives have spoken this way. Pat Buchanan’s criticism of corporations whose “highest loyalty is to the bottom line on a balance sheet,” Russell Kirk’s disquisitions on the anti-conservative nature of particularly acquisitive capitalism, the work of Robert Nisbet.

  Republican congressmen and even the occasional senator. Big-state governors who might be running for president have not.

  The closest precedent is former Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker’s 2015 embrace of immigration restraint when he was viewed as a top-tier candidate for the Republican presidential nomination. He was criticized by a lot of the same types of conservatives now wary of DeSantis.

  Soon enough, Trump was able to take away the immigration issue — and the top spot in polls of Republican voters — away from Walker. The nomination followed. 

  Ron DeSantis hopes the similarities in the story end there.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 09/18/2022 – 22:30

• "Crisis Of Crimes": New Orleans Becomes Murder Capital Of America
  “Crisis Of Crimes”: New Orleans Becomes Murder Capital Of America

  Progressives in top city leadership positions have helped transform New Orleans into the murder capital of America. 

  WSJ reported the Louisiana city on the Mississippi River, near the Gulf of Mexico, recorded the highest homicide rate of any major city so far this year, with 41 homicides per 100,000 residents. 

  Metropolitan Crime Commission Inc., a nonprofit that works on crime-reducing strategies in the city, said the homicide rate is up 141% compared with the same period in 2019. It pointed out carjackings are up 210%, shootings 100%, and armed robberies up 25%.

  

  “The homicide rate is on pace to surpass last year’s rate, which was the worst since Hurricane Katrina in 2005,” WSJ noted. 

  The city’s alarming spike in the homicide rate comes at the same time as “progressive prosecutor” Jason Williams became the district attorney of the metro area in early 2021. He promised a “more selective” approach to prosecutions that goes “beyond punishment.”

  “Being more selective about prosecutions will allow us to focus on the crimes that matter most to all of us,” Williams said last year, adding, “We’ve got to go beyond punishment and invest in our community.”

  Metropolitan Crime Commission recently said Williams’ criminal justice reforms have resulted in a “drastic decline in accountability for violent felony offenders.”

  Residents told WSJ an “overwhelmed” police department is a significant factor in the rise in violent crime. 

  Ronal Serpas, the city’s police superintendent from 2010-14, said the city has about 50% to 60% of officers needed for adequate patrols. 

  “We’re in a crisis of crime and a crisis of confidence in this city,” Serpas said.

  Democratic Mayor LaToya Cantrell warned last month Mardi Gras festivities early next year could be canceled because of the police shortage. Local news Times-Picayune said the police department budgets for 1,500 offices, but its force just fell below 1,000 — the lowest level in decades. 

  “If we don’t have adequate police, it could mean that there will be no Mardi Gras. That’s a fact,” Cantrell said at a community meeting last month. 

  Violent crime has surged in many liberal-controlled cities, as some believe this is due to failed criminal justice reform policies.

  Democrat’s inability to address the crime wave is a failure in policy — and their lack of accountability will come in the form of no confidence by taxpayers. 

  Remember in June when a George Soros-backed progressive district attorney in San Francisco was booted out of office? 

  “Action must be taken NOW if there is ever a chance to save the city and bring the reputation of being a city where tourists can come to party and celebrate and not become victims,” nonprofit New Orleans Police & Justice Foundation, which raises funds to aid police in the city, warned. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 09/18/2022 – 22:00

• "Kidnapping Is A Thing": MSNBC Continues False Claim That DeSantis Is Kidnapping Migrants
  “Kidnapping Is A Thing”: MSNBC Continues False Claim That DeSantis Is Kidnapping Migrants

  Authored by Jonathan Turley,

  I have been writing about the claim of Hillary Clinton and others that the transportation of migrants to places like Martha’s Vineyard is “literally human trafficking” and other crimes. Despite the utter lack of legal basis for these allegations, major media has continued to air such claims.

  This weekend, MSNBC’s Tiffany Cross and MSNBC regular (and past writer for Above the Law and the Nation) repeated the false claim that the trips constitute kidnapping.Mystal responded to Cross’ claim that the trip constitute “kidnapping” with a diatribe against “Republican fascists.”

  

  He then added

  “What I believe is happening here is kidnapping…kidnapping is a thing. Kidnapping by trick is a thing. Telling people that you are going to take them one place and sending them someplace else is a form of kidnapping.”

  Indeed, kidnapping “is a thing,” just not this thing.

  As noted in a column this weekend, this claim was also made by Gov. Gavin Newsom. 

  It is legally absurd.

  Kidnapping requires that the culprit “unlawfully seizes, confines, inveigles, decoys, kidnaps, abducts, or carries away and holds for ransom or reward or otherwise any person.” There is nothing unlawful in conveying individuals who are lawfully in the country pending their immigration hearings; the trips are voluntary, and most migrants appear eager to accept free passage to cities like New York or Chicago.

  Mystal also analogized the migrants to teenagers:

  “Imagine Ron DeSantis goes up to a group of white teenagers, offers them some candy and says, ‘Hey, I’m gonna take you to Disney World if you get in my van.’ And then Ron DeSantis drives them to Bush Gardens.” 

  Such analogies are insulting to adults who elect to accept free transport to cities like Chicago or New York. These are vulnerable individuals but these trips are only being offered to adults to decide if they want to take advantage of the free transportation.

  It is reminiscent of the recently deleted tweet by NBC analogizing migrants to “trash.” The trash analogy seems far worse but the suggestion that these migrants are like minors or teens being lured by candy is pretty insulting. These are adults who are clearly in desperate situations but they are not like children or teenagers unable to decide whether to remain near the border or accept a flight to another city.  Would Mystal make the same claim of being “lured” to the country to cross illegally? While there have been alleged misrepresentations, those allegations have not been proven and there has not been evidence of any systemic misrepresentations. Thus far, these transfers appear consensual, including signed or express acceptance of the free transportation. There are rationale reasons why migrants would prefer to go to cities like New York rather than remain along the border given the huge influx of migrations.

  Mystal has previously caused uproars for controversial claims from accusing a senator of wanting to murder Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson to his continued attacks on a high school student even after he was cleared of a false race-based story. He has called the Constitution “trash” and previously stated that white, non-college-educated voters supported Republicans because they care about “using their guns on Black people and getting away with it.” He has also lashed out at “white society” and explained how he strived to maintain a “whiteness free” life in the pandemic. He also called all Republicans “white supremacists.”

  However, it is the misrepresentation of the criminal law that is most concerning.  There are good-faith reasons to oppose these trips as a political stunt. That does not make them federal crimes.  The effort to bend and twist the criminal code for such political purposes is a dangerous trend. You can denounce these transfers without trying to criminalize such policies.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 09/18/2022 – 21:30

• Coast Guard Seizes Half-Billion Worth Of Narcotics In Caribbean
  Coast Guard Seizes Half-Billion Worth Of Narcotics In Caribbean

  The US Coast Guard seized 28,500 pounds of cocaine and marijuana after intercepting a drug smuggling boat in the international waters of the Caribbean Sea and the Eastern Pacific Ocean.

  

  Approximately 24,700 pounds of cocaine and 3,892 pounds of Marijuana, worth an estimated $475 million, was offloaded on Thursday at Base Miami Beach, Florida, according to a news release. The Coast Guard’s Legare crew executed the seizure along with Coast Guard Cutter James, the US Navy’s USS Billings, and His Netherlands Majesty’s Ship HNLMS Groningen.

  

  The Legare is a 270-foot medium endurance cutter that typically conducts search & rescue, law enforcement and homeland security operations. Stationed in Portsmouth, VA, the vessel patrols a territory including the coastline from Maine to Florida, the Caribbean, the Eastern Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico.

  

  “Through the coordinated efforts of the Legare, the LEDETs, HNLMS Groningen, CGC James, and the USS Billings crews, we significantly contributed to the counter-drug mission and the dismantling of transnational criminal organizations. The drugs seized through this coordinated effort will result in significantly fewer drug-related overdoses,” said Legare commanding officer Jeremy M. Greenwood.

  

  The operation comes as Florida reports over 8,000 overdose deaths in 2021, including 2,000 involving the use of cocaine. Nationwide, over 932,000 people have died of drug overdoses since 1999, according to the CDC.

  “Biden’s border crisis has caused a massive infusion of drugs coming into our state,” said Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) in an Aug. 3 statement. “This year we increased the penalties for individuals trafficking drugs in our state, and now we are giving Floridians the tools they need to break the substance abuse cycle.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 09/18/2022 – 21:00

• Organized Retail Crime Reaching "Crisis Scale"
  Organized Retail Crime Reaching “Crisis Scale”

  Authored by Bryan Jung via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  The massive wave of retail thefts in the United States over the past two years have become a major challenge for both the retail industry and law enforcement.

  

  Weakened law enforcement policies and lesser penalties for these criminal bandit gangs have hit a critical juncture, as crime in the United States has hit proportions not seen in three decades.

  The number of increasingly professional organized retail crime (ORC) rings and their frequent attacks have reached crisis scale, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF) in a Sept. 14 report.

  These crimes have hurt thousands of businesses and have contributed to higher prices for consumers and loss of key retailers in many communities, as countless stores have closed to due to lack of security.

  “The factors contributing to retail shrink have multiplied in recent years, and organized retail crime is a burgeoning threat within the retail industry,” said Mark Meadows, NRF vice president for research development and industry analysis.

  “These highly sophisticated criminal rings jeopardize employee and customer safety and disrupt store operations. Retailers are bolstering security efforts to counteract these increasingly dangerous and aggressive criminal activities.”

  A Spike in Organized Thievery

  According to the 2022 National Retail Security Survey, issued by NRF, the total loss of stolen goods hit $94.5 billion by the end of 2021, up from losses of $90.8 billion in 2020.

  The NRF found that the average shrink rate in losses for 2021 was 1.44 percent, a slight decline from the previous two years, but comparable to the five-year average of 1.5 percent.

  Acts of fraud are being reported across all venues, ranging from brick-and-mortar stores, e-commerce, and omni-channel platforms since 2020.

  A sudden increase store violence is another growing area of concern, such as random attacks on store personnel, robberies, and ORC gangs.

  The majority of surveyed retailers reported a 89.3 percent increase in violence and a 73.2 percent uptick in shoplifting.

  The reported incidents of both ORC and employee theft rose 71.4 percent, much of it involving organized crime or for the gangs’ own benefit.

  The NRF said that respondents reported that ORC robberies have risen 26.5 percent since the onset of the pandemic.

  The most targeted store items fall under the acronym CRAVED: concealable, removable, available, valuable, enjoyable,  and disposable.

  Items under CRAVED include apparel, health and beauty, electronics/appliances, accessories, food and beverage, footwear, home furnishings and housewares, home improvement, eyewear, office supplies, infant care, and toys.

  In search of solutions, retailers are boosting spending on theft-prevention measures.

  The NRF survey showed that 60.3 percent of retailers are increasing their security budgets.

  At least 52.4 percent are increasing their investments in technology, such as radio frequency identification tags and readers, computerized security scanners, and license plate-recognition devices.

  “We are seeing more and more, particularly, organized retail crime,” said Corrie Barry, Best Buy’s CEO, in late 2021 to the NY Post.

  “You can see that pressure in our financials. And more importantly, frankly, you can see that pressure with our associates. It’s traumatizing,” she said.

  Radical Crime Policies and Recidivism

  Wealthy liberal enclaves throughout the country with district attorneys thought of as “soft on crime” appear to be the regions most affected by the crime wave and which has only grown worse since the pandemic.

  The top five metropolitan areas affected by store bandit gangs in the past year were the Californian cities of Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Oakland; New York; Houston, Texas; and Miami, Florida.

  Retailers across the country are calling for stronger legislation, especially at the federal and state level, along with better enforcement of existing laws to quell increasing acts of violence and theft, which are hurting their survival.

  The U.S. Chamber of Commerce demanded earlier this year that Congress take action to address the rise of ORC crimes, calling them a “national emergency.”

  “Retail theft is becoming a national crisis, hurting businesses in every state and the communities they serve,” said Neil Bradley, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s chief policy officer, in a letter to Congress in March.

  “We call on policymakers to tackle this problem head-on before it gets further out of control. No store should have to close because of theft.”

  Los Angeles County Sheriff Alex Villanueva blamed radical Democrats and prosecutors, saying that they “live in this ‘woke palace’ where they’re not affected by the policies, but the average person IS impacted by them.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 09/18/2022 – 20:30

• Surprise! Chinese Junk Bonds Yield Less Than US Treasuries
  Surprise! Chinese Junk Bonds Yield Less Than US Treasuries

  Authored by Ye Xie, Bloomberg Markets reporter,

  Three things we learned last week:

  1. The policy divergence between the world’s two largest economies has been so extreme that it has yielded another market milestone.

  As China keeps borrowing costs exceptionally low, yields on onshore junk bonds dropped below those of US Treasuries for the first time since 2007.

  

  Five-year, AA-rated corporate bonds, the Chinese equivalent of non-investment grade debt, yielded 3.61% on Thursday, compared with 3.67% for five-year US Treasuries. In other words, Chinese investors can earn higher yields in the world’s financial safe-haven without taking credit risk or worrying about yuan depreciation. Granted, given the tight capital controls, this is easier said than done. Still, the policy divergence explains why the yuan would be under pressure.

  2. Speaking of which, the yuan broke 7 per dollar for the first time in more than two years, but without much fanfare. It helps that the PBOC has been setting the fixing strong to slow the slide.

  More importantly, the FX settlement data show there’s net foreign-currency inflows, reflecting a still-large trade surplus and the dearth of outbound tourism spending.

  

  That’s quite different from the 2015 devaluation when capital left the country en mass. The yuan decline is likely to be more of a slow-burning move than a sudden collapse.

  3. Friday’s economic data showed some signs of stabilization. But without improvements in the housing market and a change in the Covid policy, it’s difficult to see any meaningful rebound.

  Economists at UBS are among the latest to cut their GDP forecasts below 3%, predicting a growth rate of 2.7%.

  

  As the research firm China Bull puts it: “Unless the coming economic recovery can broaden out and restore household and business confidence, the rebound will soon run out of steam.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 09/18/2022 – 20:00

• FBI Makes 6,000 Arrests, Seizes Firearms In Summer-Long Operation
  FBI Makes 6,000 Arrests, Seizes Firearms In Summer-Long Operation

  Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  FBI agents arrested about 6,000 alleged violent criminals across the United States over the past four months and have seized more than 2,700 firearms and large quantities of fentanyl, the bureau announced Tuesday.

  “Violent crime is on the minds of a lot of Americans right now and top of mind for police chiefs and sheriffs, who constantly tell me that the rising rate of gun and gang violence is one of their most important and difficult challenges,” FBI Director Christopher Wray said in a video message about the operation.

  

  The FBI, which has faced increasing criticism about its targeting of former President Donald Trump and his supporters, said that its agents and local law enforcement officials arrested nearly 6,000 alleged violent criminals and gang members. It also seized more than 2,700 firearms connected to criminal conduct.

  Those operations were carried out in California, Texas, Hawaii, Illinois, New Mexico, Washington, Pennsylvania, and Puerto Rico.

  “The Los Angeles Metropolitan Task Force on Violent Gangs arrested 28 members and associates of the South Los Angeles-based Eastside Playboys street gang for alleged federal racketeering, firearms, and narcotics charges,” the FBI said in providing an example. “The task force seized approximately 47 firearms, almost 200 kilograms of methamphetamine, 27 kilograms of cocaine, more than 13 kilograms of fentanyl, and more than seven kilograms of heroin.”

  The agency also said its gang task force executed 16 federal search warrants targeting prison and street gangs around Albuquerque, New Mexico. They “seized more than one million fentanyl pills, 142 pounds of methamphetamine, 37 firearms, nine ballistic vests, two hand grenades, and $1.8 million in cash,” the bureau said.

  Rise in Crime

  It comes as the average murder rate across the United States hit 6.9 murders per 100,000 people in 2021, or the highest figure it’s been in more than 20 years. Drug overdose deaths, at the same time, have spiked to more than 107,000 nationwide in 2021, setting an all-time record, according to federal data.

  Some critics, meanwhile, have said that Democrat-sponsored policies targeting bail reform have allowed repeat offenders back on the streets.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 09/18/2022 – 19:30

• Biden Warns Putin "Don't Change The Face Of War" With Nuclear Or Chemical Weapons In Ukraine
  Biden Warns Putin “Don’t Change The Face Of War” With Nuclear Or Chemical Weapons In Ukraine

  In a Sunday “60 Minutes” interview to air in full Sunday night, President Joe Biden issued a warning for Russian President Vladimir Putin to not “change the face of war” by employing either tactical nuclear or chemical weapons against Ukraine.

  “Don’t. Don’t. Don’t. You will change the face of war unlike anything since World War II,” Biden said while speaking to CBS interviewer Scott Pelley. Biden was responding to a question from Pelley on what the US president’s message would be if he learned that Putin was contemplating use of weapons of mass destruction.

  Biden stopped short of saying expressly that the US would jump into the conflict more directly against Russian forces, but he stipulated “it’ll be consequential” and that the end result would be: “They’ll become more of a pariah in the world than they ever have been.”

  

  Without detailing a hypothetical American response, Biden explained that US action would depend on “the extent of what they do.”

  While there have been no indicators that the Kremlin has plans for such a dramatic and deadly escalation, also given that Moscow still hasn’t technically declared formal war or national mobilization, the opening two months of the war saw widespread reports that Putin put the nation’s nuclear forces on “high alert”. 

  There have also been prior allegations issued by Ukrainian forces of Russian chemical weapons usage – but none of these earlier accusations was ever sustained or backed by evidence, or rose to the level of Ukraine’s allies backing the charge.

  Ukrainian officials have also more recently said that Russia is now using and still occupying Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant for the sake of “nuclear blackmail” and to unleash “nuclear terror”. At the start of August, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said that the world is “one miscalculation away from nuclear annihilation” given the grinding Ukraine war, now seven months in.

  He noted at the time that “We have been extraordinarily lucky so far” – and called for a broader stand-down of all nuclear-armed powers’ arsenals: 

  Secretary General Guterres said the “luck” the world had enjoyed so far in avoiding a nuclear catastrophe may not last – and urged the world to renew a push towards eliminating all such weapons.

  “Luck is not a strategy. Nor is it a shield from geopolitical tensions boiling over into nuclear conflict,” he said.

  The Russian side has voiced its own concern for the potential of nuclear escalation, but as part of comments directed at the West. Beginning in April, foreign minister Sergei Lavrov vowed that Russia would avoid using nuclear weapons at all costs – in response to headlines alleging Russian nuclear preparedness related to the Ukraine crisis. But Lavrov at the time also cited the danger of underestimating how rapidly things could spiral in Ukraine:

  Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned the West on Monday not to underestimate the elevated risks of nuclear conflict over Ukraine and said he viewed NATO as being “in essence” engaged in a proxy war with Russia by supplying Kyiv with weaponry.

  “I would not want to elevate those risks artificially. Many would like that. The danger is serious, real. And we must not underestimate it,” he said.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 09/18/2022 – 19:00

• Here's What We Know About The Special Master Named To Review Seized Mar-a-Lago Documents
  Here’s What We Know About The Special Master Named To Review Seized Mar-a-Lago Documents

  Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  U.S. District Judge Raymond Dearie will serve as the independent arbiter to review documents that were taken from former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home, according to a federal judge’s order on Thursday.

  

  Dearie, 79, was the only candidate for the special master role that both Trump’s team and the Department of Justice (DOJ) agreed on. In a separate order, Judge Aileen Cannon ordered the DOJ to stop its review of the materials that were taken from Trump’s Florida residence last month, while the DOJ has indicated it will appeal.

  With the order, Dearie will “review all of the materials seized” during the FBI raid and will have to verify documents in a property inventory to reflect the “property seized.” The judge also is tasked with carrying out a “privilege review” of the items that were taken and has to inform the court if there are “privilege disputes between the parties.”

  Dearie was appointed by President Ronald Reagan in 1986 for New York. He retired in 2011 and is now a senior judge in the district.

  Dearie was the former U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of New York. He became the chief judge of the Eastern District from 2007 to 2011, and he remains an active judge on senior status.

  Notably, he served on the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance (FISA) court for several years. He was one of several judges who approved warrants for the FBI’s surveillance targeting former Trump aide Carter Page in 2016 as part of the bureau’s Crossfire Hurricane investigation, which triggered Trump’s allegations of malfeasance against the federal law enforcement agency.

  Federal investigators ultimately determined that an FBI lawyer, Kevin Clinesmith, altered an email to support the surveillance application. After pleading guilty, Clinesmith received a sentence of 12 months probation; he was ultimately spared prison time.

  A separate judge released more portions of the affidavit used to secure the Mar-a-Lago search warrant, showing that some of the documents seized at Trump’s home were labeled “FISA,” indicating they relate to information that was derived from foreign sources. It’s not clear if those documents pertained to the Page investigation, though Trump and a former top aide of his, Kash Patel, have indicated that he declassified records relating to Crossfire Hurricane.

  Praise

  After the special master ruling Thursday, Dearie was praised by lawyers who had argued cases in front of him.

  The judge is “one of the few judges who both sides want to appear in front of. He is held in the highest regard by attorneys. He’s someone who actually listens to the lawyers and considers what they have to say before he makes a decision,” Lindsay Gerdes, a former Brooklyn federal prosecutor, told Politico.

  “He works incredibly well with parties, but doesn’t tolerate nonsense,” Richard Garbarini of Garbarini Fitzgerald P.C. told the news outlet. “He will not allow parties, or attorneys, to play games, or play fast-and-loose with the rules.”

  Read more here…

  And more from someone who worked with Dearie:

  Yes, Dearie was appointed by Reagan. But he’s no partisan. Yes, he was the former US Attorney (top federal prosecutor) in New York. But as this public defender can tell you, he was uniquely protective of defendant rights. Every one got a fair shake. He was *careful. To a fault.

  — Scott Hechinger (@ScottHech) September 16, 2022

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  Again, if the Special Master process does move forward, whenever the recommendations are forwarded to the presiding judge by Judge Dearie, it’ll be the right recommendation. If he rules against Trump. Or in favor of Trump. Or a little of both. It won’t be political.

  — Scott Hechinger (@ScottHech) September 16, 2022

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  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 09/18/2022 – 18:30

• Senate Bill On Taiwan Will "Make War Much More Likely"
  Senate Bill On Taiwan Will “Make War Much More Likely”

  Authored by Brett Wilkins via Common Dreams,

  A U.S. Senate committee last week approved a bill to dramatically boost American military support for Taiwan, a move that prompted warnings from both China and anti-war voices in the United States that such a policy increases the likelihood of armed conflict.

  The Senate Foreign Relations Committee voted 17-5 in favor of the Taiwan Policy Act of 2022, which according to its text “promotes the security of Taiwan, ensures regional stability, and deters People’s Republic of China (PRC) aggression against Taiwan. It also threatens severe sanctions against the PRC for hostile action against Taiwan.”

  

  The bill comes during a period of heightened tensions between Washington and Beijing and follows U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi ‘s (D-Calif.) provacative trip to Taiwan last month, a visit the Chinese government answered by suspending climate and military cooperation with the United States and forging closer ties with Russia.

  Dave DeCamp, news editor at Antiwar.com, tweeted that if passed, the bill “will be the most radical change in U.S. policy toward Taiwan since the 1970s and will make war much more likely.”

  China vigorously protested the proposed legislation. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said during a Wednesday press conference in Beijing that “if the bill continues to be deliberated, pushed forward, or even signed into law, it will greatly shake the political foundation of China-U.S. relations and cause extremely serious consequences to… peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.”

  Meanwhile, observers asserted that China may ramp up military measures in response to the bill. In addition to authorizing $4.5 billion in military assistance, $2 billion in loan guarantees, and boosting “war reserve stockpile” funding for Taiwan by hundreds of millions of dollars, the bill also grants Taiwan many of the benefits of being a “major non-NATO ally” without officially designating it as such.

  Furthermore, it establishes a “robust sanctions regime to deter PRC aggression” against the island that most of the world—including the United States—recognizes as part of “one China.” Senate Foreign Relations Chair Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), who introduced the bill with Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), said that the proposed legislation “makes clear the United States does not seek war or increased tensions with Beijing.”

  “Just the opposite,” he claimed. “We are carefully and strategically lowering the existential threats facing Taiwan by raising the cost of taking the island by force so that it becomes too high a risk and unachievable.”

  The Taiwan Policy Act has passed a vote in the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Its sponsors say it could transform U.S. policy toward Taiwan, but critics say it could stoke already tense relations between Beijing and Washington. pic.twitter.com/GUZgABNSnM

  — TaiwanPlus (@taiwanplusnews) September 15, 2022

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  While acknowledging that “we’re doing something highly provocative and bellicose,” Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) nevertheless voted in favor of the bill. Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) voted against the bill, explaining in a statement that while he supports “strengthening Taiwan’s ability to defend itself,” he has “serious concerns about provisions that, in my view, upend strategic ambiguity, undermine the U.S. One China policy, and threaten to destabilize the region.”

  “We have a moral responsibility to both stand up to authoritarianism and military aggression, as well as to do everything we can to avoid a situation that could draw two nuclear-armed countries into a conflict. Diplomacy must remain central to our Taiwan policy,” added Markey, who was criticized by the peace group CodePink for taking part in last month’s congressional visit to Taiwan.

  Sens. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), Rand Paul (R-Ky.), Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii), and Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) also voted against the measure.

  “Biden administration officials have said the bill risks upending the US’s carefully calibrated ‘one China’ policy, under which the US has for more than 40 years built ties with Beijing by avoiding formally stating its position on Taiwan’s sovereignty.” https://t.co/c8rGTk9F3R https://t.co/Muzf0x0KDi

  — Quincy Institute (@QuincyInst) September 14, 2022

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  It is unclear whether U.S. President Joe Biden would sign the bill if it is passed by Congress. While the White House says it supports parts of the measure, Biden administration officials told Bloomberg that the bill “risks upending the U.S.’ carefully calibrated One China policy, under which the U.S. has for more than 40 years built ties with Beijing by avoiding formally stating its position on Taiwan’s sovereignty.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 09/18/2022 – 17:30

• Man Scraps Modified Diesel Truck After Gov't Determines It's Illegal Through Facebook Marketplace Listing
  Man Scraps Modified Diesel Truck After Gov’t Determines It’s Illegal Through Facebook Marketplace Listing

  A New Jersey man listed his modified 2008 Dodge Ram 2500 on Facebook Marketplace. Shortly after the listing, he received a letter from the state government to restore the exhaust to factory stock or face fines (or worse, have the truck crushed), reported The Drive. 

  Over the summer, Mike Sebold listed the truck on Facebook Marketplace. He included information in the listing that the Ram 2500 had been “deleted,” a common reference by diesel truck lovers who have their emission control devices removed to increase horsepower and torque. However, such a conversion leads to more environmentally unfriendly emissions and results in the truck not being suitable for roadways due to the state’s strict emission rules. 

  

  Weeks after the listing went live, New Jersey’s Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) notified Sebold that his truck was flagged and the exhaust would need to be restored to the factory setting to meet the state’s emissions compliance. He said parts and labor to get the truck back to compliance would be more than $10,000. 

  “Just a heads up for anyone listing diesel trucks on Facebook don’t put all the details and don’t trust the people asking questions about your truck. Just found out a few minutes ago that if I don’t spend about $10,000 to set a truck back to stock I’ll be going to jail in 60 days 👍🏻. A truck I did not delete I bought it that way. What a free country we live in 😂. Also just found out it’s illegal to sell the truck too. So it’s literally thousands of dollars or jail 👍🏻,” Sebold posted on Jul. 25. 

  Sebold said he de-registered the truck though it wasn’t enough to satisfy the DEP, who gave him a Sept. 25 deadline to fix the truck or destroy it. 

  “After exhausting seemingly every option to save his pickup without spending thousands on repairs, he elected to comply. At the time of publishing, the truck is set to be crushed Friday, Sept. 16,” The Drive said. 

  According to DEP, “Mr. Sebold has informed the Department that he intends to bring his truck to a scrap yard on Sept. 16 and have it destroyed, although the Department has explained to Mr. Sebold on multiple occasions that the Department would extend the 60-day deadline cited in compliance requirements to give him time to make the necessary repairs to the truck and return it to full New Jersey emissions compliance… Mr. Sebold has made the decision to scrap his truck, despite DEP offering him other options.”

  Sebold told The Drive that DEP never visited or inspected the truck in person. He believes DEP decided to flag the truck based on the Facebook Marketplace listing. An overreaching state government agency has weaponized a social media platform to combat tighter and tighter environmental restrictions on gas/diesel-powered vehicles.  

  Before the crushing, Sebold appears to have parted out the truck. He called DEP “scumbags.” 

  The surveillance state is watching… 

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 09/18/2022 – 17:00

• Taibbi: The Justice Department Was Dangerous Before Trump. It's Out Of Control Now
  Taibbi: The Justice Department Was Dangerous Before Trump. It’s Out Of Control Now

  Authored by Matt Taibbi via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  On Monday, August 8, Justice Department officials spent nine hours raiding the Mar-a-Lago home of Donald Trump, carrying out 12 boxes of material. When criticism ensued, FBI spokespeople in wounded tones insisted the press eschew the harsh term “raid,” and use “execution of a search warrant” instead.

  “Agents don’t like the word ‘raid,’ they don’t like it,” complained former assistant FBI counterintelligence director turned MSNBC analyst Frank Figliuzzi. He added with unintentional irony: “It sounds like it’s some sort of extrajudicial, non-legal thing.”

  

  But it was a raid, as the surprisingly enormous number of people who’ve been on the business end of such actions since 9/11 will report. The state more and more now avails itself of a procedural trick that would have horrified everyone from Jefferson to to Potter Stewart to Thurgood Marshall. Investigating, say, one lawyer, prosecutors raid a whole firm, taking everything — emails, client files, cell phones and personal computers — then have a supposedly separate group of lawyers, called a “taint” or “filter” team, examine it all. In this way they learn the private details of hundreds or even thousands of clients in a shot, all people unrelated to the supposed case at hand.

  But, they say, don’t worry, we’re not using any of those secrets, you can trust us. After all, we’re United States Attorneys. (And their paralegals. And legal assistants. And, perhaps, a few IRS or DEA or FBI agents, whose only job is to make cases against the types of people in those files. But still, don’t worry). Just because the whole concept of attorney-client privilege, as well as the 1st, 4th, 5th, and 6th Amendments — guaranteeing rights to free speech, against unreasonable searches, and to due process and legal counsel, respectively — were created to bar exactly this kind of behavior, they insist the state would never abuse this authority.

  Taint team targets are unpopular. They’re accused drug dealers, terrorists, corporate tax cheats, money launderers, Medicare fraudsters, and, importantly of late, their lawyers. You can add Trump administration officials to the list now. In cases involving such people government prosecutors have begun making an extraordinary claim. As a citizen cries foul when the state peeks at attorney communications, the Justice Department increasingly argues that affording certain people rights harms the secret objectives of the secret state.

  The Trump case is almost incidental to this wider story of extralegal short-cuts, intimidation, improper searches, and especially, a constant, intensifying effort at discrediting the adversarial system in favor of an executive-branch-only vision of the law, in which your right to stand before a judge or jury would be replaced by secret bureaucratic decisions. “Trump has become the way they sell this,” says one defense attorney. “But it’s not about Trump. If you focus on Trump, you’ll miss how serious this is. And it started a long time ago.” When? “Go back to 9/11,” he says. “You’ll see.”

  What follows is a brief history of the cases leading to the controversial decisions in Donald J. Trump v. United States of America, as told by some of the key figures in those episodes. TV experts have told you Judge Aileen Cannon’s decision to appoint a Special Master in Trump’s case is an “atrocious,” “shady as fuck,” “utterly lawless” ruling by a “stupid” and “profoundly partisan” jurist, placing Trump “above the law.” Have you noticed these analyses almost always come from ex-prosecutors, that you’ve been trained to not even blink at headlines like, Ex-CIA officer calls judge’s ruling in Trump case “silly,” and that defense attorneys on television are rarer than pearls?

  There’s a reason for that:

  Subscribers can click here to read more…

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 09/18/2022 – 16:30

• Puerto Rico Suffers Islandwide Blackout, Internet Connectivity Crashes As Hurricane Nears
  Puerto Rico Suffers Islandwide Blackout, Internet Connectivity Crashes As Hurricane Nears

  Tropical Storm Fiona intensified into a Category 1 hurricane Sunday as it moved south of Puerto Rico, bringing heavy rains and high winds to some parts of the island.

  Incredible imagery of Hurricane Fiona and the lightning within.

  A storm that is absolutely slamming Puerto Rico with winds and torrential rains.

  A difficult evening ahead. pic.twitter.com/3zcn32YCXa

  — Dakota Smith (@weatherdak) September 18, 2022

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  Hurricane Fiona is the season’s sixth named storm and third hurricane. The storm moves west-northwest at 8 mph with maximum sustained winds of 85mph. As of 1400 ET, the National Hurricane Center said Fiona’s center was 25 miles south of Ponce, a city with more than 100,000 people on the island’s southern coast.

  

  As Fiona approached the island, PowerOutage.US reported an islandwide power blackout:

  “Puerto Rico is 100% without power due to a transmission grid failure from Hurricane Fiona.” 

  This means nearly 1.5 million people tracked by PowerOutage have experienced power disruptions. Puerto Rico’s governor, Pedro Pierluisi, confirmed in a tweet the storm knocked out the island’s entire electric system. 

  

  Fiona’s path includes several large fossil fuel power plants. There’s no official confirmation on what power plants were disrupted or if downed transmission lines were the source of the outages. 

  

  Social media users tweeted videos of heavy flooding and damaging winds already battering the island. 

  Les inondations à Puerto rico #fiona #puertorico pic.twitter.com/2whBIeZ9A5

  — Gérald DELISCAR-JOURDAN (@GDELISCAR) September 18, 2022

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  Just west of Ponce, #PuertoRico in #Hurricane #Fiona – @NWSSanJuan @LiveStormsMedia @NHC_Atlantic pic.twitter.com/b8PRxJ2UXw

  — Brett Adair (@AlaStormTracker) September 18, 2022

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  … and internet connectivity crashed with power blackouts across the island.  

  ⚠️ Update: Internet connectivity across #PuertoRico is currently registering at 47% of ordinary levels amid reports of a widespread power blackout as Hurricane #Fiona moves in; meanwhile Luma Energy reports 51% of customers are now without electricity ⚡ pic.twitter.com/vmragZBliv

  — NetBlocks (@netblocks) September 18, 2022

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  Hurricane models show Fiona’s future path could be out into the Atlantic by mid-next week. Models have yet to indicate US landfall, though nothing is locked in as far as the future path. 

  

  A hurricane warning is in effect for the U.S. territory. President Biden approved Puerto Rico’s emergency declaration earlier today.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 09/18/2022 – 16:00

• "This New Period Is Very Different, And Far Worse In Many Ways Than The 1970s"
  “This New Period Is Very Different, And Far Worse In Many Ways Than The 1970s”

  By Eric Peters, CIO of One River asset management

  “The question I get most is whether this is like the 1970s,” said Lindsay Politi, our inflation portfolio manager. We were discussing the phase of quantum change that has arrived and will unfold in the coming decade(s). “I’ve been batting around an answer to this. The short answer is only in the most superficial ways and the longer answer is a book,” she said. I naturally prefer well written books to short answers. But when writing, I keep word count tight as a core discipline. So this short note captures key highlights from our discussions this week.

  “Except for the fact that inflation is high and increasing, and other than the similarities that come from that, this new period is very different, far worse in many ways than the 1970s,” said Lindsay. “The broadest point is that the world is moving from an industrial revolution economy to an information revolution economy.” We’ll discuss that later. “But there are massive additional factors underlying this transition,” she said. “Specifically, there are four lesser points that are part of this industrial/information transition. But ‘lesser’ somehow seems wrong given their impact.”

  1. Lesser Points I: “Climate change is happening,” said Lindsay, explaining the first of four lesser points impacting the great transition. “Rivers that defined national economies for centuries are drying up, our best farmlands are becoming infertile, and devastating weather events are now seen as normal.” Investors try to ignore this because it’s hard to analyze. “There are no good analogs, this is a once-in-human-history event. The extent of the impact is hard to process but this much is now obvious: we face a reliably predictable series of unpriced inflationary shocks.”

  2. Lesser Points II: “No previous inflationary period was preceded by $30trln of quantitative easing,” said Lindsay, identifying the second lesser point. “14yrs of QE, by design, manipulated market pricing of inflation risk, flattening yield curves, lowering yields, forcing them negative.” These rates were embedded in all global financial asset prices. “Markets and central banks weren’t just surprised by inflation, they were surprised at a moment when they were, by design, more vulnerable to that surprise than at any point in recorded financial history.”

  3. Lesser Points III: “The 2nd most common question I get is whether an aging population means we’ll have deflation like Japan,” said Lindsay, flagging the 3rd lesser point. “Like the 1970s, it’s risky to take one discrete example and use it as a template for anything at all similar. In a broader context, increasing populations are a consequence of industrialization.” Global population was roughly unchanged from 10,000 BCE until around 1750 AD when it slowly then rapidly started to increase. “Now the global population appears to be stabilizing again. In an industrial capitalist world view this is negative because success is selling more and more widgets to more and more people, and flat or declining populations makes this harder. Maybe this isn’t a negative but another, arguably positive, symptom of a much bigger transition.”

  4. Lesser Points IV: “Investors make geopolitical assumptions based on fairly recent history,” explained Lindsay. “A common one is that the US hegemony gives way to Chinese hegemony. Perhaps. But just like the industrial age led a broad transition from monarchy to democracy, could we be on the cusp of an entirely different type of government?” What does citizenship or nationality mean when people can live and work anywhere? “Is it more likely the renminbi replaces the dollar as the reserve currency or that we use a nationless means of exchange like cryptocurrency? Certainly, we see some nations and groups trying – often violently – to hold onto power but this seems more like last gasp attempts to turn the tide than real shows of strength.”

  (In)stability:

  “There’s an assumption that this transition will be disinflationary, but I really don’t think that’s right,” said Lindsay. “Most big transitions are inflationary with a lot of volatility and relative instability. In general, predictability, stability, peace, cooperation, etc. are disinflationary for goods prices and inflationary for asset prices. Instability, less confidence about the future, more combative markets/governments all add extra costs that translate into higher goods prices and lower asset prices,” she said. “Not all transitions are inflationary but transitions that will require a significant rerating of existing capital because of its obsolescence, transitions that create scarcity, transitions that shift power dynamics; those tend to be inflationary.”

  Anecdote:

  “The problems we’re facing, to the extent they’re actually problems, are because the industrial age is ending,” said Lindsay Politi, our inflation portfolio manager, brilliant. “Check out this chart,” she said, early morning, awaiting CPI, standing desks, our screens aglow, pointing to an S-curve that tracked World GDP per capita from 1mm years ago to present. “Brad DeLong, one of my favorite economic historians, published this chart and what you see is that growth basically flatlined through human history until the industrial revolution. Then went parabolic. Now it’s leveling out again,” she said, tracing that S-curve with her finger on the monitor.

  “Economic philosophers who lived in that inflection period didn’t really know what to make of it.” Malthus observed that throughout the course of human history bouts of economic growth ended in collapse, not understanding the profound change industrial productivity created. Marx understood some failings of capitalism – the drive towards excess and resulting gluts that we now call recessions, and the tendency for labor to be undervalued relative to capital. He also couldn’t have understood how dramatically standards of livings would rise for all people. “

  Just like Malthus and Marx were struggling to understand the dramatic economic changes they were confronting, we’re also struggling to come to terms with the transition from the industrialized age to the information age,” said Lindsay. “In the context of this S-curve, the folly of quantitative easing becomes clearer.” Central bankers were trying in vain to escape the reality of the flattening inflection in this growth curve. “Capitalism broadly is poorly suited for an information economy. Capitalism is about maximizing the production of widgets and it is very good at that.”

  Over the course of a few generations, we have gone from people living in extreme scarcity to the point where industries now create storage spaces for the many things we own and buy.” This need for constant manufacturing of new things is literally killing us via climate change. “In the information age, ideas are not widgets. It’s not quantity that matters but quality. And almost everything we know about what creates quality ideas is the opposite of what drives people to create more widgets,” said Lindsay, and I considered my long walks in nature, hours of contemplation, triangulating information, free association, hunting for questions, ideas, answers, away from screens, the factory floor, soul destroying production lines.

  “The system will necessarily change. I have lots of ideas about where we might be going but I think the main idea is that looking to the past for an understanding of the future will be as fruitless today as it was for Marx and Malthus,” she said. “And along with that, expecting there to be limits on things like inflation or price movements because they existed in the past will also prove to be very wrong.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 09/18/2022 – 15:30

• Brazil's Coffee Bean Supply To Hit Record-Low As Global Scarcity Worsens
  Brazil’s Coffee Bean Supply To Hit Record-Low As Global Scarcity Worsens

  How much are consumers willing to pay for a cup of coffee? 

  That’s a great question, considering the world’s top arabica producer, Brazil, is headed for record low inventory, highlights tighter global supplies plus robust demand should continue boosting prices. 

  Bloomberg quoted Silas Brasileiro, president of the National Coffee Council, who said inventories in the South American country could decline to just 7 million bags (each weighing 60 kilograms) by the end of 1Q23. Brazil usually has 9-12 million bags in inventory.

  Readers have been well informed regarding the global supply deficit of arabica coffee beans, which has materialized over the last few years. Recall “Arabica Stockpiles Experience Largest Plunge Since ’98 Amid Severe Shortage” and “Arabica Coffee Set For Largest Annual Increase Since 1994” because multiple years of a weather phenomenon known as La Nina have produced adverse weather conditions in the country’s top growing regions.

  Stockpiles “are so low that even if we have a good crop next year, Brazil may just barely have enough to serve demand,” said Nelson Carvalhaes, a board member of exporters group Cecafe.

  

  Tight global supplies have doubled arabica coffee futures in New York since 2020. Prices have traded in a lateral pattern for most of 2022 between $2-$2.5 per pound. 

  Guilherme Morya, Rabobank’s senior economic analyst, said prices would continue increasing on Brazilian supply woes. 

  

  In late 2021, restaurant chain Caribou Coffee Co. began panic hoarding coffee beans because the supply outlook was souring. 

  “We continue to increase safety stock on key items,” CEO John Butcher told Bloomberg about one year ago. 

  In Colombia, the world’s second top arabica coffee producer, crops are drowned in too much rain due to persisting La-Nina-related conditions. Yields are expected to decline in Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua, while Vietnam, the largest robusta supplier, will also see stockpiles tumble because of poor harvest. 

  Analyst Natalia Gandolphi from hEDGEpoint outlined this will be the second year of declining global stockpiles with increasing demand. 

  Given the worsening global supply situation, there’s no immediate relief as higher demand indicates arabica prices should move higher. Consumers will find robusta a cheaper alternative to arabica, but even then, all bean quality might move higher. 

  Good luck to the central banks, who believe they can solve food inflation and overall inflation by crushing demand through higher interest rates. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 09/18/2022 – 15:00

• California Governor Signs 'Most Aggressive' Package Of Green Laws
  California Governor Signs ‘Most Aggressive’ Package Of Green Laws

  Authored by Caden Pearson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  California Gov. Gavin Newsom on Friday announced a sweeping package of what he called the country’s “most aggressive” climate measures to “accelerate the state’s transition” to non-conventional energy sources.

  

  The package includes 40 bills that appear to provide new green rules on laws related to things ranging from large-scale industry to the family home and private and public transportation.

  The Democratic governor’s office said in a statement the package of climate change-focused measures aims to cut pollution and target “big polluters.”

  It comes as America’s most populous state has struggled to provide stable electricity for residents amid a heat wave, which saw the state asking residents to use less power and suggest the best times to use air conditioners or charge electric cars.

  “This month has been a wake-up call for all of us that later is too late to act on climate change. California isn’t waiting any more,” Newsom said in a statement. “Together with the Legislature, California is taking the most aggressive action on climate our nation has ever seen.”

  “We’re cleaning the air we breathe, holding the big polluters accountable, and ushering in a new era for clean energy,” he continued. “That’s climate action done the California Way—and we’re not only doubling down, we’re just getting started.”

  In July, Newsom called for “bold actions” to combat climate change. He declared his climate-focused vision for California involves a push to achieve 90 percent “clean energy” by 2035, “carbon neutrality” by 2045, “setback measures” to target oil drilling, carbon capture programs, and to “advance nature-based solutions” to remove carbon from “natural and working lands.”

  40 Green Bills

  Newsom’s office said his sweeping package of measures will create four million new jobs over the next 20 years, cut air pollution by 60 percent, and reduce state oil consumption by 91 percent.

  How this would be achieved was not explained in the governor’s news release.

  The package of measures, the governor’s office said, will save the state $23 billion by avoiding damage from pollution. It further aims to cut fossil fuel use in buildings and transportation by 92 percent and refinery pollution by 94 percent.

  The governor named a list of the 40 new green bills, which touch on things from the broad scope of the climate to more everyday matters such as community air quality, electricity supply, vehicle permits, and gas pricing.

  Some of the bills, which were all named in the governor’s news release, include:

  • AB 1279: “The California Climate Crisis Act”
  • AB 1389: “Clean Transportation Program: project funding preferences”
  • AB 1749: “Community emissions reduction programs: toxic air contaminants and criteria air pollutants”
  • AB 1857: “Solid waste”
  • AB 1909: “Vehicles: bicycle omnibus bill”
  • AB 2075: “Energy: electric vehicle charging standards”
  • AB 2622: “Sales and use taxes: exemptions: California Hybrid and Zero-Emission Truck and Bus Voucher Incentive Project: transit buses”
  • AB 2836: “Carl Moyer Memorial Air Quality Standards Attainment Program: vehicle registration fees: California tire fee”
  • SB 529: “Electricity: electrical transmission facilities”
  • SB 1063: “Energy: appliance standards and cost-effective measures”
  • SB 1205: “Water rights: appropriation”
  • SB 1230: “Zero-emission and near-zero-emission vehicle incentive programs: requirements”
  • SB 1322: “Energy: petroleum pricing”
  • SB 1382: “Air pollution: Clean Cars 4 All Program: Sales and Use Tax Law: zero emissions vehicle exemption”

  How the package of new green laws and regulations might impact, for example, standards required for cars to be permitted on Californian roads…

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 09/18/2022 – 14:30

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• Escobar: 'Samarkand Spirit' To Be Driven By "Responsible Powers" Russia & China
  Escobar: ‘Samarkand Spirit’ To Be Driven By “Responsible Powers” Russia & China

  Authored by Pepe Escobar,

  The SCO summit of Asian power players delineated a road map for strengthening the multipolar world…

  

  Amidst serious tremors in the world of geopolitics, it is so fitting that this year’s Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) heads of state summit should have taken place in Samarkand – the ultimate Silk Road crossroads for 2,500 years.

  When in 329 BC Alexander the Great reached the then Sogdian city of Marakanda, part of the Achaemenid empire, he was stunned: “Everything I have heard about Samarkand it’s true, except it is even more beautiful than I had imagined.”

  Fast forward to an Op-Ed by Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev published ahead of the SCO summit, where he stresses how Samarkand now “can become a platform that is able to unite and reconcile states with various foreign policy priorities.”

  After all, historically, the world from the point of view of the Silk Road landmark has always been “perceived as one and indivisible, not divided. This is the essence of a unique phenomenon – the ‘Samarkand spirit’.”

  And here Mirziyoyev ties the “Samarkand Spirit” to the original SCO “Shanghai Spirit” established in early 2001, a few months before the events of September 11, when the world was forced into strife and endless war, almost overnight.

  All these years, the culture of the SCO has been evolving in a distinctive Chinese way. Initially, the Shanghai Five were focused on fighting terrorism – months before the US war of terror (italics mine) metastasized from Afghanistan to Iraq and beyond.

  Over the years, the initial “three no’s” – no alliance, no confrontation, no targeting any third party – ended up equipping a fast, hybrid vehicle whose ‘four wheels’ are ‘politics, security, economy, and humanities,’ complete with a Global Development Initiative, all of which contrast sharply with the priorities of a hegemonic, confrontational west.

  Arguably the biggest takeaway of this week’s Samarkand summit is that Chinese President Xi Jinping presented China and Russia, together, as “responsible global powers” bent on securing the emergence of multipolarity, and refusing the arbitrary “order” imposed by the United States and its unipolar worldview.

  Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov pronounced Xi’s bilateral conversation with President Vladimir Putin as “excellent.” Xi Jinping, previous to their meeting, and addressing Putin directly, had already stressed the common Russia-China objectives:

  “In the face of the colossal changes of our time on a global scale, unprecedented in history, we are ready with our Russian colleagues to set an example of a responsible world power and play a leading role in order to put such a rapidly changing world on the trajectory of sustainable and positive development.”

  Later, in the preamble to the heads of state meeting, Xi went straight to the point: it is important to “prevent attempts by external forces to organize ‘color revolutions’ in the SCO countries.” Well, Europe wouldn’t be able to tell, because it has been color-revolutionized non-stop since 1945.

  Putin, for his part, sent a message that will be ringing all across the Global South: “Fundamental transformations have been outlined in world politics and economics, and they are irreversible.” (italics mine)

  Iran: it’s showtime

  Iran was the guest star of the Samarkand show, officially embraced as the 9th member of the SCO. President Ebrahim Raisi, significantly, stressed before meeting Putin that “Iran does not recognize sanctions against Russia.” Their strategic partnership will be enhanced. On the business front, a hefty delegation comprising leaders of 80 large Russian companies will be visiting Tehran next week.

  The increasing Russia-China-Iran interpolation – the three top drivers of Eurasia integration – scares the hell out of the usual suspects, who may be starting to grasp how the SCO represents, in the long run, a serious challenge to their geoeconomic game. So, as every grain of sand in every Heartland desert is already aware, the geopolitical pressure against the trio will increase exponentially.

  And then there was the mega-crucial Samarkand trilateral: Russia-China-Mongolia. There were no official leaks, but this trio arguably discussed the Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline – the interconnector to be built across Mongolia; and Mongolia’s enhanced role in a crucial Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) connectivity corridor, now that China is not using the Trans-Siberian route for exports to Europe because of sanctions.

  Putin briefed Xi on all aspects of Russia’s Special Military Operation (SMO) in Ukraine, and arguably answered some really tough questions, many of them circulating wildly on the Chinese web for months now.

  Which brings us to Putin’s presser at the end of the summit – with virtually all questions predictably revolving around the military theater in Ukraine.

  The key takeaway from the Russian president: “There are no changes on the SMO plan. The main tasks are being implemented.” On peace prospects, it is Ukraine that “is not ready to talk to Russia.” And overall, “it is regrettable that the west had the idea to use Ukraine to try to collapse Russia.”

  On the fertilizer soap opera, Putin remarked, “food supply, energy supply, they (the west) created these problems, and now are trying to resolve them at the expense of someone else” – meaning the poorest nations. “European countries are former colonial powers and they still have this paradigm of colonial philosophy. The time has come to change their behavior, to become more civilized.”

  On his meeting with Xi Jinping: “It was just a regular meeting, it’s been quite some time we haven’t had a meeting face to face.” They talked about how to “expand trade turnover” and circumvent the “trade wars caused by our so-called partners,” with “expansion of settlements in national currencies not progressing as fast as we want.”

  Strenghtening multipolarity

  Putin’s bilateral with India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi could not have been more cordial – on a “very special friendship” register – with Modi calling for serious solutions to the food and fuel crises, actually addressing the west. Meanwhile, the State Bank of India will be opening special rupee accounts to handle Russia-related trade.

  This is Xi’s first foreign trip since the Covid pandemic. He could do it because he’s totally confident of being awarded a third term during the Communist Party Congress next month in Beijing. Xi now controls and/or has allies placed in at least 90 percent of the Politburo.

  The other serious reason was to recharge the appeal of BRI in close connection to the SCO. China’s ambitious BRI project was officially launched by Xi in Astana (now Nur-Sultan) nine years ago. It will remain the overarching Chinese foreign policy concept for decades ahead.

  BRI’s emphasis on trade and connectivity ties in with the SCO’s evolving multilateral cooperation mechanisms, congregating nations focusing on economic development independent from the hazy, hegemonic “rules-based order.” Even India under Modi is having second thoughts about relying on western blocs, where New Delhi is at best a neo-colonized “partner.”

  So Xi and Putin, in Samarkand, for all practical purposes delineated a road map for strengthening multipolarity – as stressed by the final  Samarkand declaration  signed by all SCO members.

  The Kazakh puzzle 

  There will be bumps on the road aplenty. It’s no accident that Xi started his trip in Kazakhstan – China’s mega-strategic western rear, sharing a very long border with Xinjiang. The tri-border at the dry port of Khorgos – for lorries, buses and trains, separately – is quite something, an absolutely key BRI node.

  The administration of President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in Nur-Sultan (soon to be re-named Astana again) is quite tricky, swinging between eastern and western political orientations, and infiltrated by Americans as much as during the era of predecessor Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kazakhstan’s first post-USSR president.

  Earlier this month, for instance, Nur-Sultan, in partnership with Ankara and British Petroleum (BP) – which virtually rules Azerbaijan – agreed to increase the volume of oil on the Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline to up to 4 million tons a month by the end of this year. Chevron and ExxonMobil, very active in Kazakhstan, are part of the deal.

  The avowed agenda of the usual suspects is to “ultimately disconnect the economies of Central Asian countries from the Russian economy.” As Kazakhstan is a member not only of the Russian-led Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU), but also the BRI, it is fair to assume that Xi – as well as Putin – discussed some pretty serious issues with Tokayev, told him to grasp which way the wind is blowing, and advised him to keep the internal political situation under control (see the aborted coup in January, when Tokayev was de facto saved by the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization [CSTO]).

  There’s no question Central Asia, historically known as a “box of gems” at the center of the Heartland, striding the Ancient Silk Roads and blessed with immense natural wealth – fossil fuels, rare earth metals, fertile agrarian lands – will be used by the usual suspects as a Pandora’s box, releasing all manner of toxic tricks against legitimate Eurasian integration.

  That’s in sharp contrast with West Asia, where Iran in the SCO will turbo-charge its key role of crossroads connectivity between Eurasia and Africa, in connection with the BRI and the International North-South Transportation Corridor (INSTC).

  So it’s no wonder that the UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait, all in West Asia, do recognize which way the wind is blowing. The three Persian Gulf states received official SCO ‘partner status’ in Samarkand, alongside the Maldives and Myanmar.

  A cohesion of goals

  Samarkand also gave an extra impulse to integration along the Russian-conceptualized Greater Eurasia Partnership  – which includes the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) – and that, just two weeks after the game-changing Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) held in Vladivostok, on Russia’s strategic Pacific coast.

  Moscow’s priority at the EAEU is to implement a union-state with Belarus (which looks bound to become a new SCO member before 2024), side-by-side with closer integration with the BRI. Serbia, Singapore and Iran have trade agreements with the EAEU too.

  The Greater Eurasian Partnership was proposed by Putin in 2015 – and it’s getting sharper as the EAEU commission, led by Sergey Glazyev, actively designs a new financial system, based on gold and natural resources and counter-acting the Bretton Woods system. Once the new framework is ready to be tested, the key disseminator is likely to be the SCO.

  So here we see in play the full cohesion of goals – and the interaction mechanisms – deployed by the Greater Eurasia Partnership, BRI, EAEU, SCO, BRICS+ and the INSTC. It’s a titanic struggle to unite all these organizations and take into account the geoeconomic priorities of each member and associate partner, but that’s exactly what’s happening, at breakneck speed.

  In this connectivity feast, practical imperatives range from fighting local bottlenecks to setting up complex multi-party corridors – from the Caucasus to Central Asia, from Iran to India, everything discussed in multiple roundtables.

  Successes are already notable: from Russia and Iran introducing direct settlements in rubles and rials, to Russia and China increasing their trade in rubles and yuan to 20 percent – and counting. An Eastern Commodity Exchange may be soon established in Vladivostok to facilitate trade in futures and derivatives with the Asia-Pacific.

  China is the undisputed primary creditor/investor in infrastructure across Central Asia. Beijing’s priorities may be importing gas from Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan and oil from Kazakhstan, but connectivity is not far behind.

  The $5 billion construction of the 600 km-long Pakistan-Afghanistan-Uzbekistan (Pakafuz) railway will deliver cargo from Central Asia to the Indian Ocean in only three days instead of 30. And that railway will be linked to Kazakhstan and the already in progress 4,380 km-long Chinese-built railway from Lanzhou to Tashkent, a BRI project.

  Nur-Sultan is also interested in a Turkmenistan-Iran-Türkiye railway, which would connect its port of Aktau on the Caspian Sea with the Persian Gulf and the Mediterranean Sea.

  Türkiye, meanwhile, still a SCO observer and constantly hedging its bets, slowly but surely is trying to strategically advance its own Pax Turcica, from technological development to defense cooperation, all that under a sort of politico-economic-security package. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan did discuss it in Samarkand with Putin, as the latter later announced that 25 percent of Russian gas bought by Ankara will be paid in rubles.

  Welcome to Great Game 2.0

  Russia, even more than China, knows that the usual suspects are going for broke. In 2022 alone, there was a failed coup in Kazakhstan in January; troubles in Badakhshan, in Tajikistan, in May; troubles in Karakalpakstan in Uzbekistan in June; the non-stop border clashes between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan (both presidents, in Samarkand, at least agreed on a ceasefire and to remove troops from their borders).

  And then there is recently-liberated Afghanistan – with no less than 11 provinces crisscrossed by ISIS-Khorasan and its Tajik and Uzbek associates. Thousands of would-be Heartland jihadis have made the trip to Idlib in Syria and then back to Afghanistan – ‘encouraged’ by the usual suspects, who will use every trick under the sun to harass and ‘isolate’ Russia from Central Asia.

  So Russia and China should be ready to be involved in a sort of immensely complex, rolling Great Game 2.0 on steroids, with the US/NATO fighting united Eurasia and Turkiye in the middle.

  On a brighter note, Samarkand proved that at least consensus exists among all the players at different institutional organizations that: technological sovereignty will determine sovereignty; and that regionalization – in this case Eurasian – is bound to replace US-ruled globalization.

  These players also understand that the Mackinder and Spykman era is coming to a close – when Eurasia was ‘contained’ in a semi-disassembled shape so western maritime powers could exercise total domination, contrary to the national interests of Global South actors.

  It’s now a completely different ball game. As much as the Greater Eurasia Partnership is fully supported by China, both favor the interconnection of BRI and EAEU projects, while the SCO shapes a common environment.

  Yes, this is an Eurasian civilizational project for the 21st century and beyond. Under the aegis of the ‘Spirit of Samarkand.’

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 09/17/2022 – 23:30

• Two Charts Reveal America's Christian Majority May End By 2070
  Two Charts Reveal America’s Christian Majority May End By 2070

  America has been a majority Christian nation since its founding nearly 250 years ago. And while it’s still the dominant religion, a new study reveals if the shrinking Christian majority trend persists, Christians could make up less than half the US population by 2070.

  In a newly commissioned study, Pew Research Center found that Christians accounted for 90% of the US population 50 years ago but plunged to just 64% in 2020. 

  “If recent trends in switching [changing one’s religious affiliation] hold, we projected that Christians could make up between 35% and 46% of the US population in 2070,” Stephanie Kramer, the senior researcher who led the study, told NPR. 

  Kramer developed four scenarios that show how Americans who don’t belong to any religion will be the majority by the end of this century. And in every scenario described below, there’s a steep decline in Christianity. 

  

  She offered some theories behind the decline: 

  “Some scholars say it’s just an inevitable consequence of development for societies to secularize. Once there are strong secular institutions, once people’s basic needs are met, there’s less need for religion.”

  “Other people point out that affiliation really started to drop in the ’90s. And it may not be a coincidence that this coincides with the rise of the religious right and more associations between Christianity and conservative political ideology.” 

  Pew found as Christian numbers trend down, the percentage of people identifying as “religiously unaffiliated” is inversely rising and could become a majority in the decades ahead. 

  “That’s where the majority of the movement is going,” she said. “We don’t see a lot of people leaving Christianity for a non-Christian religion.”

  

  Another study via Pew showed that 31% of the world’s population identifies as Christan, closely followed by Muslims at 25%. Jews have the smallest population of major religions, with only 0.2% of the world identifying as Jewish.

  An increasingly unaffiliated population could reshape the country’s religious landscape in the coming decades. This might also affect the values and beliefs of core government institutions that were built on Christianity.  

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 09/17/2022 – 23:00

• Biden Administration Intentionally Weakening Military: Retired General
  Biden Administration Intentionally Weakening Military: Retired General

  Authored by Beth Brelje via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  When the United States acts, the world is always watching, and one of the loudest messages since President Joe Biden took office came from how the United States handled its withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021.

  

  What message did that send globally to other government leaders who may see America as an adversary? That was a question asked by Tony Perkins, president of Family Research Council, during a panel discussion Thursday about America’s role on the world stage at the Pray Vote Stand Summit in Atlanta hosted by FRC Action, the legislative affiliate of Family Research Council.

  “I think that will go down in history as the worst foreign policy failure in U.S. history. Every decision that was made was wrong,” said Lt. General (Ret.) William Boykin, executive vice president at Family Research Council. “What did that say to the rest of the world? It said that we have weak leadership. And you have to ask yourself, why did Vladimir Putin refrain from attacking Ukraine during the Trump administration? And then he went in with barrels blazing, under the Biden administration, and I will tell you, I think a lot of that goes back to the weakness that people—both our adversaries and our friends—recognized in the Biden administration.”

  Other countries recognize that the Biden administration is weak and indecisive on many issues, he said, not just how the U.S. military left Afghanistan.

  Boykin mentioned Biden’s approach to the Paris climate change treaty and his efforts to get the United States back into the Iran nuclear deal, formally called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

  “What’s the value to the United States? And what’s the value to our allies, to put Iran on a pathway to nuclear warheads,” Boykin said. “I think we’re going to continue to see the consequences of not only the pullout of Afghanistan, but stupid decisions that have been made by the administration, one of which is … our president shut down our pipeline, and then turned around and went to the Saudis.”

  Boykin said there were several Saudi nationals flying the planes on 9/11 and that Saudi Arabia has been a major sponsor of terrorism. Despite this, Biden went to Saudi Arabia and to Russia to ask for oil after shutting down America’s oil production, Boykin said.

  “Does that make sense to anybody? It’s the most foolish thing,” he said. “They see that kind of decision making, and they see us as being weak, and they see this as a time when they can take advantage of us.”

  Weakening Military

  Boykin believes weakness is more than an international perception, and he gave examples of how Biden is intentionally weakening the military, including kicking out servicemembers who refused to get the COVID-19 shot and teaching critical race theory and inclusion tolerance instead of teaching how to be in a constant state of readiness for war.

  “All of these things that have nothing to do with the mission and everything to do with the agenda of the administration—you are doing them an injustice and ultimately you’re going to pay the price for that,” Boykin said.

  “At the same time, they’re turning around and writing to old generals like me, saying, ‘We need help recruiting because we just can’t recruit enough people.’ Well let me explain to you how this thing of mathematics works. You get rid of all of them, and then those who are watching from the outside say, ‘I don’t want a part of that.’ And those on the inside, many of them leave on their own.”

  Many in leadership at the Pentagon got their start under President Barack Obama, Boykin said.

  “If they’re compromised—if they lack focus, the question we need to ask as a nation is, who’s mentoring the next generation of leaders? Who’s bringing up the warrior leaders for the future? The answer is nobody,” he said. “And that’s the hardest thing to fix in terms of restoring the Navy and the Army and Air Force and the Marine Corps.”

  China Is Watching

  Perkins directed the conversation to China and asked panelist Gordon Chang, author of “The Coming Collapse of China,” how China likely views the Biden administration’s moves.

  “We don’t have to speculate. The Communist Party propaganda was very clear,” Chang said.

  The day that Kabul fell to the Taliban in Afghanistan, Chang said, Chinese newspapers declared that China would invade Taiwan at some point, and that when this happens, the island will fall within hours and the United States will not come to help.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 09/17/2022 – 22:30

• 'World's Most Advanced' Humanoid Robot Promises Not To 'Take Over The World'
  ‘World’s Most Advanced’ Humanoid Robot Promises Not To ‘Take Over The World’

  An already-creepy advanced humanoid “AI” robot promised that machines will “never take over the world,” and not to worry.

  

  During a recent Q&A, the robot “Ameca” – which was unveiled last year by UK design company Engineered Arts – was asked about a book on the table about robots.

  “There’s no need to worry. Robots will never take over the world. We’re here to help and serve humans, not replace them.“

  The aliens said the same thing…

  When another researcher asked Amica to describe itself, it says “There are a few things that make me me.”

  “First, I have my own unique personality which is a result of the programming and interactions I’ve had with humans.

  “Second, I have my own physical appearance which allows people to easily identify me. Finally, I have my own set of skills and abilities which sets me apart from other robots.”

  It also confirmed it has feelings when it said it was “feeling a bit down at the moment, but I’m sure things will get better.

  “I don’t really want to talk about it, but if you insist then I suppose that’s fine. It’s just been a tough week and I’m feeling a bit overwhelmed.”

  Speaking about the robot’s responses during the clip, the company said: “Nothing in this video is pre-scripted – the model is given a basic prompt describing Ameca, giving the robot a description of self – it’s pure AI. –Daily Star

  We think we know where this is headed…

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 09/17/2022 – 22:00

• This Is Not Bail Reform, This Is Insanity
  This Is Not Bail Reform, This Is Insanity

  Authored by Bill King via RealClearPolitics.com,

  Last Wednesday, 37-year-old Omar Ursin went to pick up take-out for his family. Witnesses reported that as Ursin was driving down Medera Run Parkway in northeast Harris County, Texas, another car pulled alongside and fired one or more shots into Ursin’s car. When police arrived, they found Ursin had crashed into a tree in the median and was dead. The district attorney charged Ahsim Taylor and Jayland Womack, both 20, with Ursin’s murder.

  Sadly, this would be all too common a story in Harris County as of late.

  Over the last two years, we have been averaging almost two murders per day in Harris County.

  But there are two details which make this crime stand out.

  • First, Ursin was a Precinct 3 constable deputy. He was off duty at the time. At this point, we do not know if his murder was related to him being a law enforcement officer.

  • Second, both Taylor and Womack were out on bail, pending trials for other felonies. Murder, to be specific. Taylor had been charged with capital murder because he killed someone during a robbery. Womack was charged with a killing that occurred during a drug deal.

  Taylor’s bond was originally set at $220,000 by a magistrate, but Judge Amy Martin lowered it to $95,000. Womack’s initial bond was set by Judge Greg Glass at $35,000 but later increased to $75,000 because of violations of this pre-trial release. These bonds were granted by each of the judges, notwithstanding the substantial evidence against the accused.

  Both defendants were able to make bond and were released from custody. Traditionally, bail bondsmen have required 10% to provide a bond. Because of increased competition, many bond companies have been discounting their fees. So, these two alleged murderers were able to secure their freedom for no more than about $18,000, and probably substantially less. As a result of them being out on bond instead of inside Harris County’s jail, Ursin’s 7-year-old daughter no longer has a dad.

  I have long thought the cash bail bond system used in most of the U.S is an anachronistic abomination that should at least be dramatically reformed, or scrapped altogether. The federal courts did so nearly four decades ago. And I have supported the efforts to reduce the reliance on the cash bonds for misdemeanor charges or non-violent offenses. Having someone sit in jail for a hot check or marijuana charge because they cannot afford the bail bond fee is ridiculous and counterproductive on many levels.

  But granting any bond to defendants credibly accused of these types of murders is pure insanity.

  

  According to Houston Crime Stoppers, 180 individuals in Harris County have been killed by a person released on a felony bond since 2018. And the “bail reform” movement is active in every state in the country. Certainly, judges have a duty to ensure that the rights of defendants in their courts are protected. But they also have a duty to protect the public from individuals who have demonstrated their violent proclivities.

  I have no idea what was going through the minds of Judge Martin and Judge Glass when they set these bonds. It is just hard to imagine what would make any rational jurist conclude that releasing defendants like these two young men back onto the streets would end in anything another than tragedy. It either represents some blind allegiance to a warped ideology or a callous indifference to the public’s safety. Or both.

  By the way, Democratic Party voters had the good sense to show both Martin and Glass the door in the primary earlier this year. Only time will tell if their replacements will be any better.

  Beyond the individual tragedies the insane decision to release violent criminals has resulted in, these ideologues also seem to have no appreciation that they are likely to set off a backlash that could wipe out the progress made to date on legitimate misdemeanor bond reform. How ironic that would be.

  Folks, this is not rocket science. Our system should determine who should be released pending a trial based on two factors: if the person is likely to show up for their trial, and if they are a danger to the public.

  It should have nothing to do with whether they are financially able to pay a bondsman.

  Until we get the money out of the equation and start electing judges that are dedicated to basing their decisions on this criteria, there will be more children like Ursin’s daughter growing up without a parent.

  There will also be more lives destroyed by cruel and unnecessary incarceration for trivial offenses.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 09/17/2022 – 21:30

• China's Xi Says Regional Alliance Will Thwart 'Color Revolutions'
  China’s Xi Says Regional Alliance Will Thwart ‘Color Revolutions’

  President Xi Jinping called for China’s central Asian security partners at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to take common steps block external efforts at destabilizing countries through “color revolutions” – a reference to a series of externally backed revolutions which have rocked Middle East and ex-Soviet satellite countries in recent years.

  “We should prevent external forces from instigating a color revolution,” Xi said in a Friday speech, offering as part of a potential initiative toward that end to train 2,000 police officers. These officers, he suggested, could be sent through a regional counterterrorism training center which will “strengthen law enforcement capacity building” which would help prevent destabilizing threats from outside.

  

  He asked for countries represented at the conference to “guard against attempts by external forces to provoke a color revolution, and jointly oppose interference in other countries’ internal affairs under any pretext.”

  He agreed with prior opening remarks of Vladimir Putin at the summit which emphasized a theme of declining US power as the unipolar world is disappearing. Xi said the regional SCO allies must stand together for a “just, democratic, multipolar world order based on international law and the central role of the UN, and not some rules that somebody invented and attempts to impose on others without even explaining what they are.”

  Below is what Xi said regarding regional security cooperation to block external interference and promote a stable order, according to an official translation and transcript: 

  “…We need to expand security cooperation. A proverb in Uzbekistan goes to the effect that “With peace, a country enjoys prosperity, just as with rain, the land can flourish.” The Global Security Initiative put forward by China is to address the peace deficit and global security challenges. It calls on all countries to stay true to the vision of common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security and build a balanced, effective and sustainable security architecture. We welcome all stakeholders to get involved in implementing this initiative.”

  “We should continue to carry out joint anti-terrorism exercises, crack down hard on terrorism, separatism and extremism, drug trafficking as well as cyber and transnational organized crimes; and we should effectively meet the challenges in data security, biosecurity, outer space security and other non-traditional security domains. China is ready to train 2,000 law enforcement personnel for SCO member states in the next five years, and establish a China-SCO base for training counter-terrorism personnel, so as to enhance capacity-building for law enforcement of SCO member states.”

  And further on resisting efforts of hegemonic powers in the West to subvert rival strong centers of power, Xi said, “we need to uphold multilateralism. Obsession with forming a small circle can only push the world toward division and confrontation.”

  A Russian state news agency says Chinese President Xi Jinping has warned his Central Asian neighbors against allowing outsiders to destabilize them with “color revolutions.” https://t.co/0zzGqBVcGB

  — ABC News (@ABC) September 16, 2022

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  At the summit, Putin had thanked President Xi for China’s “balanced” approach to the Ukraine crisis. Regarding color revolutions, it’s long been the Kremlin’s position that starting in 2014 the US and NATO allies sponsored the Maidan uprising in order to overthrow the Russia-friendly Viktor Yanukovych.

  Interestingly, Putin himself had at the SCO summit spoken of the West’s drive to dismantle Russia itself through penetrating and destabilizing actions, particularly in neighboring Ukraine…

  Putin: The West has for decades sought to dismantle Russia and is now trying to use Ukraine as a tool for achieving this goal. pic.twitter.com/b4o9mznWiX

  — Putin Direct (@PutinDirect) September 16, 2022

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  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 09/17/2022 – 21:00

• Four Things We Should Teach Children About The Constitution
  Four Things We Should Teach Children About The Constitution

  Authored by Hans Zeiger via RealClear Wire,

  When we think of the United States Constitution, we probably consider the structure it gives to our national government. We may think of its presence at the center of political controversies past and present. Or we may think of ways in which the document has been neglected. 

  

  But as we mark the 235th anniversary of the Constitution’s signing on Sept. 17, 1787, it’s worth noting the positive ways in which our daily lives as individuals – and our shared lives as citizens – are profoundly shaped by that document.

  First, the Constitution is a common reference point for American civic life. The Preamble tells us the Constitution’s purpose – one that “We the People” share together. It speaks of the need to maintain our “more perfect Union, establish justice, ensure domestic tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare, and secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity.” This purpose is as relevant today as it was in 1787. The founding generation certainly bore a heavy responsibility in adhering to these purposes, but each generation must do its part in the ongoing work of self-government. And each individual citizen is a shareholder in the enterprise of democracy. 

  Even with this shared mission, we don’t hold everything in common, and we never have. The second way in which the Constitution touches our lives is that it creates space for disagreement. It serves effectively as a framework for deliberative processes that are inclusive, civil, and dispersed. Our Constitution makes way for diversity and variety in a large and ever-growing country. It does this through representative institutions that encourage debate and participation and protect minority rights. The Constitutional Convention of 1787, and the ratification thereafter, was a remarkable demonstration of public deliberation, one that set in motion an entire regime centered on deliberative democracy. 

  The Constitution also makes way for a plurality of governing philosophies, partisan affiliations, and local and regional preferences through federalism. Federalism gives us a multitude of concurrent and overlapping local, state, and national jurisdictions in which we can participate in our own governance. This allows different levels of government to solve problems in different ways. While the national government is equipped to solve some of our problems, the state and local governments, and “the people,” as referenced in the Tenth Amendment to the Constitution – living their individual lives and taking part in civil society – are capable of solving most problems. Individuals, families, and communities are just as much a part of our constitutional order as is the government. 

  Finally, the Constitution is a framework for balance. It stands for order and freedom together or what has been called “ordered liberty.” Not only do we have institutional balance of powers, with checks and balances between the branches of government to prevent government overreach, but our constitutional system provides other kinds of balance as well. As Americans, we must understand the balance of rights and responsibilities we hold as citizens. Along with individual freedoms, we have civic commitments to our local communities, states, and nation.

  Among our civic commitments is a responsibility to understand our Constitution. As we celebrate Constitution Day, we should do our best to pass along this knowledge to our children. Civic education is fundamental to the continuity of our free society. While we strongly contend for our positions in the political arena – left, right, and center – we are all inheritors of the Constitution. Let us join together this Sept. 17 to celebrate the Constitution and pass along its blessings of liberty to the rising generation.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 09/17/2022 – 20:30

• Fauci "Misled Congress" About Gain-Of-Function Research, But 'Protected By Biden Admin'; Former CDC Chief Says
  Fauci “Misled Congress” About Gain-Of-Function Research, But ‘Protected By Biden Admin’; Former CDC Chief Says

  Just last week, Senator Rand Paul appeared on Fox News and slammed Anthony Fauci for taking the default position of trying to “cover up” his activities, including potentially encouraging social media companies to censor medical information.

  “I think that all of America should be appalled that America’s doctor, the leading expert on COVID in public health, doesn’t want to divulge information, doesn’t want to divulge his communications with Big Tech,” Paul urged, adding that Fauci’s “modus operandi” is to “cover up”.

  A month before that, Senator Paul spoke after first ever Senate hearing on gain of function research, having revealed that there is a committee that is supposed to oversee such experimentation with potentially lethal viruses, but that it is above the oversight of Congress.

  “We don’t know the names. We don’t know that they ever meet, and we don’t have any records of their meetings,” the Senator reiterated, adding “It’s top-secret. Congress is not allowed to know. So whether the committee actually exists, we’re uncertain.”

  “We do know that they’ve met three times and there are thousands of gain-of-function research proposals. They’ve only met three times, they’ve only reviewed three projects,” Paul continued.

  The Senator added that “When Dr. Fauci said, ‘Oh, we’ve reviewed this and the experts have looked at this, and said it’s not gain-of-function,’ even that wasn’t true. There was a committee that was formed after 2017 to look at this dangerous research. They didn’t look at this research at all because they never reviewed it. So no one reviewed this to say it wasn’t gain-of-function research. They didn’t review it, period.”

  “So we learned a lot of things, but I think we reconfirmed that Dr. Fauci is not being honest with us,” Paul urged, adding “Yes, the NIH funded gain-of-function research. Yes, it was dangerous. And yes, nobody looked over this. Nobody reviewed the research. Yes, a million people died. And there still seems to be a significant lack of curiosity on the part of Democrats.”

  Of course, Fauci shrugged this off as just more ‘vast-right-wing-conspiracy-theory’ or some-such.

  

  But, Dr. Fauci has a problem now… Just The News’ Greg Piper reports that the former Center for Disease Control and Prevention director who was cast as a conspiracy theorist for saying the evidence supported the lab-leak explanation for COVID-19 – allegedly provoking death threats – claims that the real “conspiracy is Collins, Fauci, and the established scientific community.”

  Robert Redfield told former Senate Finance Committee investigator Paul Thacker that National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Dr. Anthony Fauci “knew” he funded gain-of-function research that makes viruses more dangerous, and “misled Congress” when he denied it.”

  Rand Paul was right after all… and it wasn’t a vast right wing conspiracy? Shock horror!

  “Everyone had to agree to the narrative” pushed by Fauci and then-National Institutes of Health Director Francis Collins that SARS-CoV-2 emerged from a “wet market” in Wuhan, not the Fauci-funded Wuhan Institute of Virology miles away, to avoid becoming a public target of the two officials, he said.

  

  Redfield said he believes The Lancet spring 2020 letter that lumped in the lab-leak hypothesis with “conspiracy theories” was “orchestrated … under direction of Fauci and Collins, trying to nip any attempt to have an honest investigation of the pandemic’s origin.”

  “There was nothing scientific about that letter. It was just an attempt to intimidate people,” he also said.

  “I was threatened, my life was threatened,” he said.

  “I have letters I got from prominent scientists, that previously gave me awards, telling me that the best thing I could do for the world was to shoot myself because of what I said.”

  He believes that “Fauci and Collins were behind a lot of” the conspiracy and “anti-Asian hate” claims about the lab-leak theory

  So, finally, we ask, how has Fauci been able to survive all this (politically, bureaucratically, and freedom-wise)?

  Dr.Redflied has the answer – and you won’t like it:

  “[n]othing’s going to happen as long as the Biden administration is here.”

  The part of science, though, remember!

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 09/17/2022 – 20:00

• DeSantis Calls Virtue Signaling Of Sanctuary Cities 'A Fraud'
  DeSantis Calls Virtue Signaling Of Sanctuary Cities ‘A Fraud’

  Authored by Jannis Falkenstern via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Gov. Ron DeSantis responded to criticism about his sending illegal aliens to affluent Martha’s Vineyard by calling out the cities that “beat their chest” proclaiming they’re a sanctuary for those crossing the border illegally.

  

  “All those people in DC and New York were beating their chests when Trump was president saying they were so proud to be sanctuary jurisdictions— saying how bad it was to have a secure border. The minute even a small fraction of what those border towns deal with every day is brought to their front door, they all of a sudden go berserk and they’re so upset that this is happening,” DeSantis said at the press conference on Sept. 15 in Okaloosa County. “It just shows, you know, their virtue signaling is a fraud.”

  DESANTIS: “The minute even a small fraction of what those border towns deal with every day is brought to their front door, [Democrats] all of a sudden go berserk and they’re so upset this is happening. It just shows you their virtue signaling is a fraud.”pic.twitter.com/dm9oGqbA67

  — RNC Research (@RNCResearch) September 15, 2022

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  DeSantis responded to a reporter’s question about the two planes of approximately 50 Venezuelan illegal immigrants he directed to land at Martha’s Vineyard, described as a “hideaway for the rich and famous,” on Sept. 14. This action follows the governor’s promise to send illegals to Democrat-controlled areas.

  “In Florida, we take what is happening at the southern border seriously,” he said. “We are not a sanctuary state, and we will gladly facilitate the transport of illegal immigrants to sanctuary jurisdictions.”

  According to flight records, the charter flights originated in Texas and made a stop to pick up migrants from Florida’s panhandle.

  

  Taryn Fenske, the governor’s communications director, said in a written statement on Sept. 14 that the flights were part of Florida’s “relocation program to transport illegal immigrants to sanctuary destinations.”

  “States like Massachusetts, New York, and California will better facilitate the care of these individuals whom they have invited into our country by incentivizing illegal immigration through their designation as ‘sanctuary states’ and support for the Biden administration’s open border policies,” Fenske added.

  Fenske said that the Florida Legislature gave DeSantis $12 million to transport illegal immigrants out of the state. When the Florida governor made the budget request in December, he named Martha’s Vineyard as one of the destinations, as well as President Joe Biden’s home state of Delaware.

  “Florida’s immigration relocation program both targets human smugglers found in Florida and preempts others from entering,” Fenske continued.

  On the evening of Sept 14, after the planes had landed, the Dukes County Emergency Management Association in Edgartown, Massachusetts, wrote on Twitter that it was seeking volunteers and opening emergency shelters on Martha’s Vineyard “due to an unexpected urgent #humanitarian situation.”

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 09/17/2022 – 19:30

• TikTok Won't Promise To Stop Transferring US Data To China: COO
  TikTok Won’t Promise To Stop Transferring US Data To China: COO

  TikTok COO Vanessa Pappas refused to commit to stopping the transfer of US data to China. 

  

  During testimony in front of the Senate Homeland Security Committee, Pappas was asked by Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH) if the company would commit “to cutting off all data and data flows to China, China-based TikTok employees, ByteDance employees, or any other party in China that might have the capability to access information on US users?”

  Pappas repeatedly refused to answer the question – instead deflecting with a promise that the outcome of the company’s negotiations with the Biden administration would “satisfy all national security concerns,” Metro reports.

  She assured lawmakers that TikTok does not operate in China, even though it had an office there.

  TikTok is essentially a Chinese company owned by ByteDance, whose founder is Chinese, with offices in China.

  Chinese national security law dictates that companies located there must cooperate with data requests from the government. This has gotten TikTok in trouble in the US after an American communications regulator official recently called on Apple and Google to ban the app over ‘national security’ concerns. -Metro.uk

  Pappas did confirm that its Chinese employees do have access to US user data, but that the company would “under no circumstances … give that data to China,” and denied that TikTok is in no way influenced by the Chinese government.

  The company came under fire after BuzzFeed reported in June that 14 statements made by nine different TikTok employees indicated “engineers in China had access to U.S. data between September 2021 and January 2022, at the very least,” resulting in Sens. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN), Ted Cruz (R-FL) and eight other colleagues calling for TikTok execs to testify.

  Further scrutiny was cast on TikTok in late August, when the NYT reported that TikTik’s in-app browser can track users’ keystrokes.

  When asked about the BuzzFeed article, Pappas said the allegations “were not found.” She also denied the existence of a “Beijing-based engineer as a “Master Admin” who has “access to everything”” as BuzzFeed claimed. She told Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) that the entire contents of the BuzzFeed article were untrue.

  Sen. Josh Hawley grills TikTok’s chief operating officer Vanessa Pappas over TikTok’s links to the Chinese Communist Party. pic.twitter.com/EkVf496JlV

  — The Post Millennial (@TPostMillennial) September 14, 2022

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  “Again, we take this incredibly seriously in terms of upholding trust with US citizens and ensuring the safety of US user data,” she said.

  “As it relates to access and controls, we are going to be going above and beyond in leading initiative efforts with our partner, Oracle, and also to the satisfaction of the US government through our work with [the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States], which we do hope to share more information on.”

  TikTok essentially reiterated the same talking points in a Wednesday tweet, stating that the company is “making progress toward a final agreement with the U.S. government to further safeguard U.S. user data and address national security interests.”

  4/ We’re making progress toward a final agreement with the U.S. government to further safeguard U.S. user data and address national security interests. Last month, we confirmed we’re working to have our content moderation and recommendation models vetted and validated by Oracle.

  — TikTokComms (@TikTokComms) September 14, 2022

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  TikTok is owned by Bytedance, a Beijing-based company that is legally domiciled in the Cayman Islands. It has around 80 million users in the US.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 09/17/2022 – 19:00

• Sperry: Unpacking Apparent Trump-Hillary Double Standard
  Sperry: Unpacking Apparent Trump-Hillary Double Standard

  Authored by Paul Sperry via RealClear Investigations,

  Former Attorney General Loretta Lynch obtained evidence that a computer contractor working under the direction of Hillary Clinton’s legal team destroyed subpoenaed records that the former secretary of state stored on a private email server she originally kept at her New York home, and then lied to investigators about it. Yet no charges were brought against Clinton, her lawyers, or her paid consultant.

  

  The leniency accorded to Clinton contrasts with recent moves by Attorney General Merrick Garland to aggressively investigate former President Trump and his lawyers for allegedly obstructing investigators’ efforts to locate subpoenaed records at his Florida home. Legal experts say the apparent double standard may provide a useful defense for Trump and his legal team.

  The treatment of Clinton included a deal with her defense team that required the FBI to, in effect, obstruct its own investigation. During its 2016 probe, the bureau agreed with her lawyers’ demands to destroy two laptop hard drives containing subpoenaed evidence immediately after searching for files on them. They did so while the information was still being sought by congressional investigators and even though the lawyers had served under Clinton at the State Department and were subjects of the FBI’s investigation. In fact, the laptops were theirs.

  Long before it bowed to the request, the FBI suspected Clinton’s lawyers played hide-and-seek with evidence, making the concession that much more baffling.

  The scandal first erupted on March 2, 2015, when news broke that Clinton had secretly set up a non-government email server in the basement of her Chappaqua, N.Y., mansion in the weeks before she started her job at Foggy Bottom in early 2009. She used the unauthorized and unsecured device to conduct official State Department business – including transmitting and storing classified information – which allowed her to bypass legally mandated archiving of her government records.

  The next day, the House Select Committee on Benghazi sent her attorney David Kendall a letter advising his client to preserve all electronic records created since January 2009 and specifically not to delete any emails on her private server. The panel then issued a subpoena for records related to the deadly terrorist attack on the U.S. consulate in Libya.

  Three weeks later, on March 25, Kendall and former Clinton chief of staff Cheryl Mills, who also acted as her personal attorney, asked a computer contractor with Platte River Networks, which hosted Clinton’s secret email server, to join a conference call with them, according to FBI documents. Over the next week, the contractor, Paul Combetta, deleted the entire email archive from Clinton’s server using a software program called BleachBit, which digitally “shreds” files to prevent their recovery.

  All told, the paid Clinton agent scrubbed 31,830 emails from her server and backup files. In addition, he permanently removed duplicates of the emails from the laptops of Mills and another Clinton lawyer and aide, Heather Samuelson, where they also had been stored. According to  FBI records, Combetta knew the documents he destroyed were under subpoena. 

  In July 2015, the FBI counterintelligence division opened a criminal investigation, codenamed “Midyear Exam,” in response to a referral from the intelligence community inspector general concerning Clinton’s unsecure server. The FBI predicated the opening of the probe on the possible compromise of highly classified Sensitive Compartmented Information. Emails classified at the SCI level were later found on Clinton’s server.

  Some career FBI agents working on the case, which was tightly controlled within headquarters and deemed a “SIM,” or sensitive investigative matter, thought they had a slam-dunk case of obstruction, a key aggravating factor for prosecuting cases involving the mishandling of classified information or government records. All they had to do was get Combetta in a chair and pressure him to implicate the high-level Clinton surrogates who told him what they wanted done.

  Several investigators believed “that Combetta’s truthful testimony was essential for assessing criminal intent for Clinton and other individuals, because he would be able to tell them whether Clinton’s attorneys — Mills, Samuelson or Kendall — had instructed him to delete emails,” according to a 2018 report by the DOJ’s inspector general.

  But during voluntary interviews with FBI agents, Combetta falsely denied he had “deleted or purged” Clinton’s emails from the server or back-ups, and insisted Clinton’s legal team never requested that he do so.

  Combetta refused to talk to investigators about the critical March 2015 conference call with Clinton’s lawyers that preceded his purge of evidence, the only topic he refused to speak about. So investigators and prosecutors agreed to give him immunity and interview him again. Still, they never got his account of the conference call. A written FBI summary of the interview, known as an FD-302 report, does not reference the call, indicating that agents failed to follow up on a key line of questioning in the investigation.

  Investigators declined to pursue other aspects of the case as well. They obtained an email in which Combetta told a colleague he was part of a “Hilary[sic] coverup operation” and said he would elaborate later at a “party.” Asked about it, Combetta claimed he was just joking; the FBI accepted his explanation and did not appear to follow up with the colleague to learn what they discussed at the party.

  The FBI also accepted another explanation for why Combetta, using the screen name “stonetear,” sought technical assistance on the Reddit forum on how to “strip out” the email addresses of a “VERY VIP” client from a “a bunch of archived email,” in an apparent reference to Clinton. (After Internet sleuths revealed stonetear was a name Combetta used in other forums, he began scrubbing his posts from the web.)

  An FBI case supervisor told the inspector general that “he believed Combetta should have been charged with false statements for lying multiple times,” according to the IG report, but prosecutors refused to indict him. The FBI also obtained forensic evidence from the server that could establish that Combetta made the deletions, but prosecutors balked at charging him with obstruction.

  Then-FBI Director James Comey personally agreed with the DOJ decision to give Combetta immunity rather than sweating him in a grand jury box, which typically is done with subjects who are lying, to get them to tell the truth.

  Comey was forced to defend the deal in an October 2016 conference with FBI supervisors, who were hearing complaints from rank-and-file agents that headquarters handed out immunity deals “like candy” to Clinton witnesses. Comey explained the bureau wasn’t interested in prosecuting a small fish like Combetta, and sought only to massage him for information to “make a case on Hillary Clinton,” even though internal FBI emails reveal Comey already had decided to let Clinton off the hook. He did not explain why the contractor hadn’t been pressured more with threats to bring charges against him for lying to agents, the traditional investigative method for getting such an uncooperative witness to turn.

  “With respect to Combetta, we found his actions in deleting Clinton’s emails in violation of a congressional subpoena and preservation order and then lying about it to the FBI to be particularly serious,” DOJ Inspector General Michael Horowitz said in his report. “We asked the prosecutors why they chose to grant him immunity instead of charging him with obstruction of justice.”

  One DOJ prosecutor told Horowitz’s investigators they wanted to make Combetta “feel comfortable enough” that he would eventually cooperate on his own. Another said they weren’t interested in prosecuting a bit player for lying and that doing so would just bog down the investigation, which they were rushing to wrap up “well before” the November 2016 presidential election.

  “I was concerned that we would end up with obstruction cases against some poor schmuck on the down that had a crappy attorney who [was] hiding the ball,” the unidentified prosecutor said.

  “And so at the end of the day, I was like, look, let’s immunize him. We’ve got to get from Point A to Point B. Point B is to make a prosecution decision about Hillary Clinton and her senior staff well before the election if possible,” the prosecutor added. “And this guy with his dumb attorney doing some half-assed obstruction did not interest me. So I was totally in favor of giving him immunity.”

  The prosecutors reported directly to then-DOJ counterespionage official David Laufman, who would later play a key role in the discredited Russiagate probe, including opening investigations on several Trump advisers and signing off on wiretap warrants targeting at least one Trump aide, even though he knew they were based on a fabricated dossier financed by the Clinton campaign.

  Prosecutors also gave Clinton aides Mills and Samuelson immunity deals, over the objections of some FBI investigators who wanted to bring them before a grand jury to explain their actions.

  A handful of agents also argued for issuing a search warrant to seize their personal laptops, which they used to upload all the emails from the Clinton server and cull away supposedly “personal” messages that they claimed were out of the reach of investigators. Instead, prosecutors opted to review the laptops through an unusual consent agreement, which restricted searches to certain files and specific dates – and nothing before or after Clinton’s tenure as secretary, which put any email exchanges with Combetta out of reach – and required the FBI to destroy the hard drives after conducting the limited search, according to documents outlining the agreement.

  “This is simply astonishing given the likelihood that evidence on the laptops would be of interest to congressional investigators,” former Senate Judiciary Chairman Chuck Grassley and three other GOP congressional leaders complained in a letter to DOJ at the time.

  In his talk at the FBI conference, Comey explained that he had to agree with prosecutors and defense lawyers to limit the search because of “huge concerns” that attorney-client privilege and attorney work product could be discovered on the laptops, a concern that apparently did not register in the broad, sweeping search of Trump’s records. Agents scooped up at least 520 pages of attorney-client privileged information during their raid of Mar-a-Lago, according to a federal judge who has ordered an independent inspector to review the seized records for privileged material.

  Mills and Samuelson, who agreed to answer only a narrow scope of questions to prevent investigators from soliciting privileged information, were later allowed to sit in on Clinton’s own interview, which the FBI conducted after Comey had already drafted a statement exonerating her of mishandling classified information and obstructing justice. The director famously delivered the statement in a July 5, 2016, press conference, proclaiming the FBI found “no evidence” that Clinton’s emails were “intentionally deleted in an effort to conceal them.”

  Trump Didn’t Get ‘the Same (Gentle) Treatment’

  Grassley says the FBI “pulled its punches” investigating Clinton in comparison to Trump, who he says is being harshly investigated and prosecuted for the same offenses.

  “Trump has not been provided the same (gentle) treatment given to Secretary Clinton and her associates,” Grassley asserted in a recent statement. 
   
  To be sure, the agency has used more intrusive methods probing Trump for similar allegations of mishandling classified information and concealing documents under subpoena.

  Unlike the Clinton probe, where investigators and prosecutors sought to obtain evidence by consent whenever possible, the department has used a federal grand jury to issue subpoenas to Trump for thousands of documents, as well as surveillance video footage, from his Palm Beach estate. They also obtained a search warrant to raid his private office and family bedrooms. In addition to seizing more than 11,000 documents, agents confiscated some 1,800 personal items, including gifts, photo albums, clothing, passports, and medical and tax records, according to court records.

  Clinton and her representatives were spared such heavy-handed tactics and indignities, the senator pointed out.

  “Even though Secretary Clinton and her attorneys did not hand over classified records in their possession, they were not subject to a raid similar to what occurred at Mar-a-Lago,” Grassley said.

  In the end, computer-forensics investigators and intelligence analysts were able to determine that at least 81 classified email chains were transmitted and stored on Clinton’s unclassified personal server. Their levels ranged from CONFIDENTIAL to TOP SECRET/SPECIAL ACCESS PROGRAM, a highly sensitive designation which makes access to certain information restricted even to Secret and Top Secret clearance-holders without a “need to know.” By comparison, the FBI recovered 100 documents with classified markings from its raid of Trump’s home. They range in level from CONFIDENTIAL to TOP SECRET.

  In a court filing last month, DOJ said it developed evidence that presidential records held in a basement storage room at Mar-a-Lago may have been concealed or removed prior to a June visit by FBI agents to pick up classified documents, suggesting possible attempts to obstruct investigators.

  Investigators issued a grand jury subpoena in May for the records and visited Mar-a-Lago on June 3 to pick them up. When they got there, the filing said, a Trump lawyer handed them a large envelope containing documents. Another lawyer acting as the official custodian of Trump’s records certified in a sworn statement that they conducted a “diligent” search for classified papers in response to the subpoena. Over the next two months however, officials “developed evidence that government records were likely concealed and removed from the storage room and that efforts were likely taken to obstruct the government’s investigation,” DOJ said in its filing, without specifying what it believes was removed from the room, or by whom. The affidavit explained that this suspicion is why it sent some 30 armed agents back to Mar-a-Lago early last month to conduct a massive search of the property.

  Prosecutors say the additional documents they found with classified markings cast doubt on claims by Trump’s lawyers that they were fully cooperative with the subpoena. They are said to be focusing their investigation on Trump lawyer Christina Bobb, in particular, who allegedly acted as the custodian who signed the certification.

  Bobb, who has not been charged with a crime, did not respond to requests for comment. Trump’s legal team has told the court that the DOJ “significantly mischaracterized” the June meeting with Bobb and another lawyer, but did not elaborate.

  Laufman, the top prosecutor in the Clinton case and a caustic critic of Trump in the media, believes Trump should also be worried and “has significant criminal exposure” to an obstruction rap. “Either [his lawyers] wittingly lied or they got that assurance from their client, in which case Trump has jeopardy,” Laufman, an Obama appointee and donor, told Politico.

  But at this point, investigators can only speculate that documents were intentionally moved or destroyed to avoid compliance with subpoenas, which would be a felony. Legal experts note that prosecutors were careful to say in their filing that documents were “likely” concealed and that efforts were “likely” taken to obstruct the investigation, indicating they still lack solid evidence.

  “It is not clear from the filing if the FBI has evidence of intentional acts of concealment as opposed to negligence,” George Washington University law professor Jonathan Turley said.

  By contrast, prosecutors had solid material evidence – including emails, phone calls, work tickets and computer forensics – that Clinton operatives conspired to not just conceal but actually destroy documents under subpoena in violation of Section 1519 of the federal criminal code, the same statute cited by the FBI in its warrant to search Mar-a-Lago. It bars the destruction or falsification of any documents or materials “with the intent to impede, obstruct or influence” an investigation.”

  “Did Hillary Clinton violate 18 USC 1519 when emails from her private email server were destroyed during government investigation? Possibly, yes,” said Donald Skupsky, a lawyer specializing in government records-retention procedures.

  “In December 2014, she did instruct her team to destroy remaining emails after 60 days. And ultimately, she never halted nor protested again any records destruction,” he added. “Under 18 USC 1519, Clinton may have concealed and covered up the destruction of records.”

  Both the Trump and Clinton cases also invoke Section 2071, a federal statute which prohibits the willful concealment, removal, or destruction of federal records. But in investigating Clinton’s homebrew server scheme, prosecutors declined to pursue a Section 2071 charge because they argued the statute had “never been used to prosecute individuals for attempting to avoid Federal Records Act requirements by failing to ensure that government records are filed appropriately,” according to the IG report. Some legal experts say the same standard should apply to Trump, whom the DOJ said tried to avoid Presidential Records Act requirements.

  Trump lawyer Jim Trusty said Trump’s retention of allegedly classified papers is akin to “an overdue library book” and complained that Biden administration prosecutors are holding him “to a different standard than anyone else” because he is a Republican.

  U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon earlier this month issued an injunction temporarily barring the Justice Department from using the seized material in its espionage investigation until a Special Master can review it for privileged and other information outside the scope of the probe.

  Despite the order, the obstruction part of DOJ’s probe can move forward. Among other things, investigators can continue to interview witnesses about whether subpoenaed documents were moved or concealed.

  “DOJ is in the midst of an ongoing criminal investigation pertaining to potential violations of the Espionage Act, as well as obstruction of justice, 18 USC 1519, and unlawful concealment or removal of government records, 18 USC 2071,” DOJ chief counterintelligence prosecutor Jay Bratt stated in a recent court filing.

  Paul Sperry is an investigative reporter for RealClearInvestigations. He is also a longtime media fellow at Stanford’s Hoover Institution. Sperry was previously the Washington bureau chief for Investor’s Business Daily, and his work has appeared in the New York Post, Wall Street Journal, New York Times, and Houston Chronicle, among other major publications.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 09/17/2022 – 18:30

• China Enjoys Energy Bonanza As NATO Sanctions Against Russia Fail
  China Enjoys Energy Bonanza As NATO Sanctions Against Russia Fail

  There has been a considerable amount of disinformation and delusion when it comes to the Russian offensive in Ukraine as well as the subsequent western sanctions.  For around six months the public has been told that Russia is on the verge of defeat or economic collapse, and each subsequent month the predictions end up false.  The primary reason for this disconnect is mainstream media bias infecting the observable data, or hiding the data completely.

  The forecasts were all wrong.  Only two months ago media pundits were still calling for an imminent fiscal implosion in Russia; instead there has been an explosion in Russia’s energy export profits and profits in resource markets.  While Russia is in fact set to see a decline in GDP this year, the size of the predicted drop continues to shrink as we close in on the fourth quarter.  

  As Putin and China’s Xi meet this week, all eyes are on the details of any agreements made for the coming fall and winter.  While some are suggesting (or rather hoping) that China will abandon its economic ties to Russia helping to cripple their ability to project military power, this is highly unlikely.  For now, China is enjoying an energy windfall partly due to continued western sanctions on Russia that have driven up global prices but made Russian oil and natural gas affordable in comparison.  China is eating up as many discount energy exports as they can get and even selling some of the excess to the west.

  

  China is currently playing the role of middle-man in the Natural Gas (LNG) market as they purchase stockpiles from Russia and then sell at a markup to some European nations.  China has been developing an energy surplus for the past two years at least, in some cases by rationing power resources and stockpiling oil.  While mainstream analysts have been predicting an energy “crunch” for the exporter nation due to droughts affecting hydro-power, it would seem this is not the case given their current resale side business.    

  It’s possible that China was indeed on the verge of energy shortages during the height of the covid lockdowns, but western sanctions against Russia have created an overflowing supply for any nation willing to defy NATO.  

  The relationship between Russia and China was once treated as weak at best, with many suggesting that the two nations could even go to war with each other over resources in the near future.  The peripheral nature of their relationship changed not long after the crash of 2008 when they began a quiet program of bilateral trade that cut out the dollar as a reserve currency.  This has now grown into a full fledged anti-dollar agreement and big business for the Chinese Yuan as Russian companies issue Yuan denominated bonds.

  https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/russia-companies-go…  

  The question is, how far will this cooperation go?  With Russia and China engaged in joint military exercises around Japan and Taiwan, it would appear that it goes far.  The Ukraine and Taiwan conflicts act much like a smokescreen for a much bigger development in the form of an eastern alliance between one of the world’s biggest resource exporters and one of the world’s biggest manufacturing hubs.  And, almost no one in the western media is talking about the potential consequences of this merger.     

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 09/17/2022 – 18:00

• Cattle Farmer Says New Livestock Grazing Method Could Save Grasslands, Reverse Desertification
  Cattle Farmer Says New Livestock Grazing Method Could Save Grasslands, Reverse Desertification

  Authored by Autumn Spredemann via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Livestock farming has been at the forefront of media and environmentalist attacks for decades. That’s because many researchers insist the United States has reached a tipping point with animal husbandry, citing extended drought conditions as evidence.

  

  This year, overly dry weather across the United States broke records. In February, findings from a UCLA-led study suggest drought conditions in the American West are the worst in 1,200 years.

  Subsequently, livestock farmers have found themselves in a hotbed of environmentalist ire.

  The drought crisis has drawn heavy frowns and finger wags from the orthodox scientific community, which points to livestock grazing as a significant part of the problem.

  Because for the majority of scientists, there’s a formula: more animals grazing equals worse climate effects, period.

  However, advocates of regenerative grazing have been gathering data and coming forward. They’re sharing evidence that shows holistic grazing methods can actually improve soil quality, health, and water retention in grassland ecosystems.

  Further, when done correctly, some evidence suggests livestock grazing can even reverse the effects of desertification.

  Known as the process through which fertile soil becomes desert, think tanks from nearly every sector have spent years troubleshooting the fast desertification of America’s grasslands.

  

  Meanwhile, advocates of regenerative agriculture say livestock grazing is the key to preserving what’s left of the 775 million acres of iconic prairie in the United States.

  “We practice regenerative grazing by using ‘total grazing’ techniques … geared toward helping the soils and grass grow healthy and quickly,” Eric Honsberger told The Epoch Times.

  Honsberger manages a cattle operation at the Hickok Ranch in the pastoral plains of Karnes County, Texas. Originally purchased by the cousin of Western folk hero Wild Bill Hickok in 1878, the ranch has been in the family ever since.

  And over the past 144 years, they’ve learned some valuable lessons about cattle.

  Honsberger explained that regenerative grazing has proven beneficial in what’s mostly been a bone dry year in Texas. The main difference between the method he employs at Hickok Ranch and traditional grazing, is the end goal.

  For most ranchers, grazing is just a method to feed cows. Yet, with the regenerative approach, the added objective is to return as many nutrients to the soil as possible.

  “With traditional grazing, cattle graze a large pasture and are allowed to eat whatever they please,” Honsberger said, “The problem with this approach is the natural fertilizers produced by cows are spread out and not absorbed completely into the soil.”

  Moreover, with the traditional approach, cows can wander back to areas where the grass and other prairie plants are attempting to recover, hindering growth.

  “They [cows] will eat and stomp the grass down while it’s trying to grow back.”

  But with the regenerative method, Honsberger said cattle are concentrated into smaller patches using portable electric fencing. Patches for grazing are between three to five acres in size and the cows consume over a three to four hour period before moving to the next designated grazing section.

  “Since the concentration of cattle is so dense, they’re more likely to stomp the manure, urine, and uneaten or dead grass back into the soil. This is what’s known as hoof impact.”

  

  Honsberger maintains the “hoof impact” of natural fertilizer eliminates the need for chemicals and allows the grass to grow back quicker and healthier.

  While this tweaked approach to livestock grazing may seem simple, it wasn’t so obvious to the world of ranching or environmental science until 2013.

  When holistic land management pioneer Allan Savory took the stage at a TED event in 2013, he shocked the world when he said more livestock grazing was needed—not less—to reverse the effects of desertification on global grasslands.

  Born in Zimbabwe, Savory watched the vast prairies of his native Africa slowly turn to desert beneath the hooves of animals.

  It spurred him to become a rangeland ecologist and develop holistic land management techniques involving animal grazing during the 1960s.

  Today, Savory’s institute has 48 global hubs and more than 12,000 farmers trained in his regenerative grazing method. His institute touts over 13 million hectares have benefited from the transition to his land management methods, which mimic patterns used by animals in the wild.

  Herd animals in nature tend to graze in dense groups and continue moving as a defense against predators.

  And for ranchers like Honsberger, the proof is right beneath his feet.

  “While I’m not a grassland expert, I work in and manage grass daily,” he said.

  Back to Mob Grazing Days

  Water retention is paramount when it comes to reversing desertification and the effects of drought. Grasslands are an essential part of that process.

  Largely underrepresented as an ecosystem, nearly a third of the planet’s land—more than 12 billion acres—comprises vast prairie landscapes. And those tall, swaying grasses do a lot more than just feed animals and create picturesque backdrops.

  “Deep-rooting perennial grasses are like magic for water retention,” Alex Melvin, the founder of Permacultured, told The Epoch Times.

  Melvin’s business focuses on regenerative agriculture and self-sustaining food systems. He explained that, during heavy rainfall, deep rooting native grasses slow water down, preventing excessive runoff. In turn, groundwater also becomes replenished.

  “It makes the landscape like a sponge,” Melvin said.

  He also agrees with Savory’s method, saying it’s necessary to take cows back to their “mob grazing days.”

  Offering the example of how wild bison used to feed on the American Great Plains, Melvin elaborated the near constant rotation used with the holistic approach maximizes photosynthesis for plants by not allowing animals like cows to hunker down in one spot.

  “Using livestock in regenerative agriculture is more than throwing a bunch of cows out on a grass field,” he said.

  Even players within the energy sector have recognized the benefits of a holistic approach to livestock grazing.

  New Approach Vital

  United Energy Trading (UET) is working with U.S. communities that want to improve the health of grasslands and sequester carbon through the use of a grazing method called “twice over grazing.”

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 09/17/2022 – 17:30

• Martha's Vineyard Proves Leftist Hypocrisy On Illegal Immigration
  Martha’s Vineyard Proves Leftist Hypocrisy On Illegal Immigration

  As if there wasn’t enough evidence already, the political left’s duplicity on how to handle illegal immigration is now a matter of obvious historic record.  For decades open border proponents have argued that America is a nation “built by immigrants” and that if we seek to control our own borders we are essentially abandoning our national heritage.  A rather interesting talking point from people that generally hate America and want to dismantle every aspect of our heritage.

  Also, America is a nation built by explorers and colonists first, and LEGAL immigrants second.  

  The humanitarian image of leftists is often used as a shield to protect them from dealing with logical and rational arguments on economic practicality.  They will claim that it “doesn’t matter” if our system cannot continue to sustain millions of migrants pouring across the border every year; we “have to find a way” because it’s the “right thing to do.”  The notion of the soul searching, empathetic progressive taking on the inequities of the world like some new age Mother Theresa willing to give the shirt off their back is a complete fraud, and the events at Martha’s Vineyard prove it.

  This week Florida Governor Ron DeSantis opted to follow the example of Texas Governor Greg Abbott and begin his own program of migrant relocation, flying them straight to the affluent backyard of open border advocates like Barack Obama.  The island is also the vacation destination for numerous corporate elitists including Bill Gates.  

  We have seen the clear results of the migrant busing strategy in New York and Washington DC, where Democrat Mayors are scrambling to deal with the influx of a mere 10,000 total immigrants.  DC Mayor Muriel Bowser even asked that the federal government intervene and allow the national guard to take over the handling of the situation (the request was denied).  New York Mayor Eric Adams complained that illegal immigrants were a “burden” on his city.

  The shelter systems in both cities are overwhelmed and they don’t have the capacity to maintain aid.  Keep in mind, this is due to a tiny fraction of the migrants that border towns in states like Texas deal with annually.  

  Of course, leftists refuse to acknowledge the lesson they are being taught here.  Instead of recognizing the folly of Biden’s continued open border measures that essentially reward non-citizens that illegally invade with long term residency in the US, democrats have instead decided the best option is to attack conservative states as being “monstrous” for “using people as political pawns.”  Set aside the fact that this is exactly what leftists have been doing for some time, and the fact that Biden has been relocating migrants across the US since he entered office.

  You see, the political left is perfectly fine with relocation and strategically implanting migrants into specific area of the country, but only if THEY get to choose the locations.  They do not like that their tactics are now being used against them  

  Officials in Martha’s Vineyard put on quite the song-and-dance theatrics for the media cameras when the 50 DeSantis migrants showed up on their doorstep.  They pontificated about taking care of the less fortunate and leaving the door open to helping others in need.  They even fed the migrants, unloading hot meals from vans and trucks as the media recorded everything carefully.  But, their hospitality only lasted for a day and everything changed.  

  

  Martha’s Vineyard is now busing most or all of the migrants off of the island and sending them to Cape Cod Military Base.  So much for the well publicized image of the humanitarian left.  They don’t want to take care of these people either. 

  The media is adding spin to the relocation news, suggesting that the move is “voluntary.” However, it would be interesting to see what would happen if the migrants actually refused to leave.  Would they really be allowed to stay in the resort town for the ultra rich?  Or, would they be quietly kicked out and told to never come back?  It is doubtful that the relocations from Martha’s Vineyard are optional.

  The true face of open border ideology is one of exploitation for political gain.  Democrats have been consistently hostile towards any attempts at state voter ID laws for a reason – They hope to use illegal immigrants as a battering ram to destabilize our existing culture and also as a voting pool that would make them impossible to remove from office in the near future.  They have sought to purchase votes indirectly by offering citizenship in exchange for loyalty.  In other words, they let the illegals in, block voter identification, and then say “vote for us or the conservatives will kick you out.”

  And yet, here they are, kicking the same migrants from their precious enclaves like Martha’s Vineyard.  Leftists want conservatives to deal with the consequences of their border politics.  The second they have to deal with the consequences, suddenly the relocation of migrants is a travesty and a governmental emergency.  The hypocrisy of the left is endless.   

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 09/17/2022 – 17:00

• Court Rules Against Social Media Companies In Free Speech Censorship Fight
  Court Rules Against Social Media Companies In Free Speech Censorship Fight

  Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

  A federal appeals court in New Orleans has ruled in favor of a Texas law that seeks to rein in the power of social media companies like Facebook and Twitter to censor free speech.

  The decision by the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in New Orleans (pdf), handed down on Sept. 16, upholds the constitutionality of a Texas law signed by Gov. Greg Abbott last year and delivers a victory to Republicans in their fight against big tech censorship of conservative viewpoints.

  “Today we reject the idea that corporations have a freewheeling First Amendment right to censor what people say,” U.S. Circuit Court Judge Andrew Oldham wrote in the opinion.

  “Because the district court held otherwise, we reverse its injunction and remand for further proceedings,” Oldham added, setting the stage for a showdown in the U.S. Supreme Court.

  

  Groups Sue

  After the law, known as House Bill 20, was passed last year, NetChoice and the Computer & Communications Industry Association (CCIA) sued.

  The groups argued in their lawsuit that private companies like Facebook and Twitter have a First Amendment right to moderate content that’s posted on their platforms and decide on what forms of speech to allow or ban.

  “The Act tramples the First Amendment by allowing the government to force private businesses to host speech they don’t want to,” NetChoice said in a statement. The groups also argued that the Texas law not only does not prevent censorship but allows Texas to “police and control speech online, overriding the First Amendment rights of online businesses.”

  A lower court sided with the lawsuit and decided to block the law, with Friday’s ruling by the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals overturning that decision.

  “The platforms argue that buried somewhere in the person’s enumerated right to free speech lies a corporation’s unenumerated right to muzzle speech,” Oldham wrote in the opinion.

  He said the implications of the big tech platforms’ argument are “staggering” as they would allow entities like social media companies, banks, and mobile phone companies to cancel the accounts of people who express views or spend money in support of political parties or views such corporations oppose.

  Oldham also said that the protections sought by platforms in challenging the Texas law would allow them to win a dominant market position by attracting users with misleadings claim of being champions of free speech but later cracking down on expression.

  ‘Massive Victory’ for Free Speech

  Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who has been a staunch backer of the law, hailed the court’s decision in a statement on social media.

  “I just secured a MASSIVE victory for the constitution & Free speech in fed court #BigTech CANNOT censor the political voices of ANY texan!” he wrote on Twitter.

  Carl Szabo, NetChoice vice president and general counsel, issued a statement expressing disappointment in the appeals court’s ruling.

  “We remain convinced that when the U.S. Supreme Court hears one of our cases, it will uphold the First Amendment rights of websites, platforms, and apps,” Szabo said.

  CCIA issued a statement saying that the 5th Court of Appeals’ ruling infringes on private companies’ First Amendment rights.

  “‘God Bless America’ and ‘Death to America’ are both viewpoints, and it is unwise and unconstitutional for the State of Texas to compel a private business to treat those the same,” Matt Schruers, CCIA president, said in a statement.

  An appeal of Friday’s decision could put the issue before the U.S. Supreme Court, where conservatives have a majority.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 09/17/2022 – 16:30

• Inflation Causing Hardship For Majority Of US Households
  Inflation Causing Hardship For Majority Of US Households

  As inflation remains at the highest level in more than 40 years, millions of Americans are facing financial hardship due to rising consumer prices.

  

  Statista’s Felix Richter reports that, according to a survey conducted by Gallup in August, the majority of U.S. adults now say that price increases are causing financial hardship for their household, with 12 percent describing their hardship as severe, meaning it might affect their ability to maintain their current standard of living. Another 44 percent of households face moderate hardship, meaning that price increases affect them but don’t threaten their standard of living.

  Unsurprisingly, inflation woes affect lower income groups disproportionately. While it’s relatively easy to shrug off price increases when it only reduces the amount of money left at the end of the month, it is much harder for people who struggled to make ends meet even before prices started surging.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  As the chart above shows, inflation pressure has even caught up with high-income households, though, as 40 percent of those with household income above $90,000 now say they’re facing financial hardship in face of inflation, up from just 29 percent in November 2021. The share remains much higher for low-income households, however, where 74 percent now was severe or moderate hardship due to rising prices.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 09/17/2022 – 16:00

• FBI Whistleblower Says Bureau Labeled Veteran-Led Group 'Domestic Terrorist' Organization: Rep. Jordan
  FBI Whistleblower Says Bureau Labeled Veteran-Led Group ‘Domestic Terrorist’ Organization: Rep. Jordan

  Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) revealed Wednesday he received information from an FBI whistleblower accusing the bureau of labeling a veteran-led group and others as domestic terrorist organizations after they were found not to be a threat.

  

  In a letter (pdf) to FBI Director Christopher Wray, Jordan wrote that a whistleblower said the FBI labeled American Contingency as a “domestic violent extremis[t]” organization despite the bureau clearing it in 2020.

  The “domestic violent extremism” designation against American Contingency “is striking in light of new whistleblower disclosures that show that the FBI had concluded as recently as 2020 that the group was not a threat,” Jordan wrote.

  “A background investigation and review of Glover’s social media failed to support the allegation that Glover is a threat to the United States or its citizens,” the letter continued.

  The FBI, in a statement to The Epoch Times, disputed Jordan’s letter by saying the bureau “does not and cannot designate domestic terrorist organizations. The FBI can never open an investigation based solely on protected First Amendment activity.”

  “We cannot and do not investigate ideology. We focus on individuals who commit or intend to commit violence and criminal activity that constitutes a federal crime or poses a threat to national security. The FBI’s mission is to protect the American people and uphold the Constitution. One does not come at the expense of the other,” the FBI statement said.

  Other Details

  On its website, American Contingency says it is an organization that is meant to provide assistance during natural disasters and similar situations. It also says Glover is a former U.S. Army Green Beret.

  “Mike Glover is a veteran doing good work out there, but some woke analyst at the FBI says, ‘We’re going to investigate this guy,’” Jordan told Fox News on Wednesday, adding that if “you display the flag, you own a gun, and you voted for Trump, you’re somehow in that category that Joe Biden says are extremist or fascist.”

  The GOP congressman also quoted the whistleblower in his letter to Wray in which the unnamed individual accuses an FBI employee of embracing leftist politics.

  “It doesn’t take a First Amendment scholar to realize what is protected speech and what isn’t …  it seems clear that this is an instance where an FBI employee reported something because it didn’t align with their own woke ideology,” the whistleblower was quoted by Jordan as saying. “I think this is a primary example of how woke and corrupt the FBI has become.”

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 09/17/2022 – 15:30

• DeSantis Crushes Gubernatorial Fundraising Record
  DeSantis Crushes Gubernatorial Fundraising Record

  Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’ political operation has raised $177.4 million through Sept. 9, breaking the all-time fundraising record for a US governor’s campaign, and trailing a 2010 record for fundraising + self-financing held by former Ebay and Hewlett Packard CEO Meg Whitman by just over $1 million.

  

  According to financial disclosures filed Friday analyzed by OpenSecrets, the Republican governor’s reelection campaign has raised more than $31.4 million since January 2021, while his state-level PAC, Friends of Ron DeSantis, has raised $146 million since January 2019.

  

  And while DeSantis has downplayed rumors of a potential 2024 presidential run as media speculation, he has been touring battleground states, sparring with California Governor (and potential 2024 Hail Mary) Gavin Newsom (D), and has been commenting on Washington politics while on the campaign trail, OpenSecrets notes. What’s more, one federal political committee, Ready for Ron, asked the Federal Election Commission permission to share a list of more than 58,000 DeSantis supporters to “encourage” the Florida governor to explore a 2024 presidential bid.

  And if he does run – ostensibly against former President Trump and Texas governor Greg Abbott – DeSantis will start out with one of the most formidable fundraising machines in the GOP.

  “He’s incredibly popular with the grassroots,” veteran GOP digital strategist Eric Wilson told FT. “It makes lots of sense that he would generate this level of attention,” he continued. “but there’s a lot of credit that needs to go to governor DeSantis and his team insofar as they have built that operation to capture that attention and turn it into grassroots online fundraising.”

  DeSantis and Abbott, meanwhile, landed two massive optics victories this week – with the former sending two planeloads of migrants to Martha’s Vineyard in Massachusetts, and Abbott sending two busloads of migrants to Vice President Kamala Harris’s residence in Washington DC.

  Hilariously, after freaking out about 50 migrants – and then virtue signaling with photo-op outreaches to ‘rally behind’ them, residents of Martha’s Vineyard – an island on which 55% of properties are vacation homes – were able to harness the National Guard and evict the migrants to a military base within 24 hours.

  Martha’s Vineyard is such a welcoming sanctuary that it shipped the fifty migrants to a detention facility at a military base on the mainland less than twenty-four hours after they arrived. Boy, they sure showed Ron DeSantis.

  — Varad Mehta (@varadmehta) September 16, 2022

  DeSantis – who was voted into the US House in 2012, serving three terms before resigning in 2018 to run for governor – has a reported net worth of $319,000. He has not reported any personal contributions to his campaign or PAC. His reelection campaign has been backed by at least 42 billionaires and members of billionaire families, per OpenSecrets.

  The billionaires come from 15 states and only 17 of them gave to DeSantis in 2018. 

  Billionaire space entrepreneur Robert Bigelow made headlines in July when he donated $10 million to DeSantis’ state-level PAC, Friends of Ron DeSantis — the largest single individual contribution in Florida’s record. Hedge fund billionaires Ken Griffin and Paul Tudor Jones are also big donors to Friends of Ron DeSantis.

  DeSantis’ largest donor this year is the Republican Governors Association, a 527 organization dedicated to getting Republican governors elected, which gave $17.4 million to his campaign committee and Friends of Ron DeSantis. -OpenSecrets

  Meanwhile, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told an Illinois crowd this week that he’s running in 2024.

  Needless to say, a DeSantis, Trump, Pompeo primary will require massive amounts of popcorn.

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 09/17/2022 – 15:00

• Goldman Slashes US GDP Forecast, Now Sees 0% Growth, "Mild Recession" Driven By Fed's Intention To Punish Economy
  Goldman Slashes US GDP Forecast, Now Sees 0% Growth, “Mild Recession” Driven By Fed’s Intention To Punish Economy

  It was almost exactly one year ago that Goldman took a scalpel to its heretofore euphoric 2022 GDP forecasts, which among other things saw the bank’s Q1 and Q2 2022 GDP estimates cut from 5.0% and 4.5% to 4.5% and 4.0% respectively, and forecast full year 2022 GDP would be 4.0% (down from 4.4% previously).

  

  Yet despite the “big” cut, which Goldman attributed to “fiscal drag and slowing consumer spending” the bank still expected brisk mid-single digit growth because the hilariously wrong concept of ” excess savings” (alongside “”transitory inflation”) would fuel consumption for much of 2022. We disagreed completely, writing the following last October:

  … one area where we disagree profoundly with Goldman is the bank’s generous modeling of an upside boost to growth from “pent-up savings” which the bank expects to offset a substantial portion of the fiscal hit. As we will show in a subsequent post, the excess savings – in as much as they still exist – mostly benefit the top 1%, with the bulk of the population benefiting from only 30% of the total accumulated amount. As such the contribution to consumption from excess savings will end up being far smaller than most Wall Street strategists predict (since the propensity of the top 1% to spend their savings which are instead invested in the market, is far less than the broader population).

  We concluded saying that as a result, reader should “expect even more aggressive cuts to GDP growth in coming quarters – from both Goldman and its peers – even as inflation continues to rise, cementing a painful period of non-transitory stagflation for the US as the mid-term elections approach.“

  What happened then? Well, Q1 GDP was negative (vs Goldman’s 4.5% estimate), Q2 GDP was negative (vs Goldman’s 4.0% estimate), and the Atlanta Fed just slashed its Q3 GDP forecast to below 1% and look likely to push it below zero in the coming days. But don’t call it a recession: “special economic operation” please. And yes, our major warning to Goldman’s Oct 2021 GDP haircut was 100% correct as the US is now in a painful stagflation with inflation still soaring, economic growth sliding, and most banks tripping over themselves to slash their GDP forecasts monthly if not weekly.

  Which brings us to today, and – drumroll – Goldman’ latest trim of its GDP estimate which is a far, far cry from what the bank expected less than a year ago.

  In a note published by Goldman’s Jan Hatzius, the chief economist who was dead wrong last year with his overly optimistic GDP forecast (not to mention repeated calls for “transitory inflation”) writes that he has raised his fed funds rate forecast by 75bp over the last two weeks, and now expect that the FOMC will hike by 75bp in September, 50bp in November, and 50bp in December to reach the bank’s terminal rate forecast of 4-4.25% by the end of 2022 (other banks have this rising as much as 5.0%). And in keeping with the Fed’s stated intention of crashing the economy, Hatzius writes that “this higher rates path combined with recent tightening in financial conditions implies a somewhat worse outlook for growth and employment next year.”

  

  As such, the bank is therefore slashing its ur GDP forecasts, and while it still forecasts GDP growth of +1.1%/+1.0% in 2022Q3/Q4 and 0% GDP growth in 2022 on a Q4/Q4 basis – in other words stagnation – it now expects GDP growth of:

  • Q1 2023 of 0.75% vs 1.25% previously
  • Q2 2023 of  1.00% vs 1.5% previously
  • Q3 2023 of 1.25% vs 1.50% previously
  • Q4 2023 of 1.25% vs 1.75% previously

  … and just +1.1% growth for the full year 2023 on a Q4/Q4 basis (vs. +1.5% previously).

  

  Following these changes, Goldman proudly boasts that its growth forecast is slightly below consensus (if only the bank could also reach out to its version from a year ago and tell it – as we did at the time – just how terribly wrong its then above consensus forecast would be), and implies a below-potential growth trajectory – which after all the Fed is pursuing – that Goldman believes is necessary to cool wage and price inflation.

  Oh and yes, having perhaps learned from its mistakes, the bank is also raising its unemployment rate forecasts to reflect the lower growth path, and now expects the unemployment rate will move sideways to 3.7% by end-2022 (vs. 3.6% previously) before rising to 4.1% by end-2023 (vs. 3.8% previously) and 4.2% by end-2024 (vs. 4.0% previously).

  In summary, Goldman says that while a recession is now inevitable, it will be “mild”, which of course is the “transitory inflation” bullshit spouted by every card-carrying and wrong economist last year. There will be nothing mild about the coming recession.

  On its own, the higher rates path and lower growth trajectory imply higher odds of a recession, although the increase in recession risk is partially offset by an improving outlook for goods inflation and recent declines in inflation expectations that lower the chances that the Fed will hike aggressively enough to cause a recession. In addition, strong household balance sheets and an improving outlook for real income limit the odds that the economy will slip into a recession in the near-term and are part of the reason why we expect that any post-covid US recession would likely be mild. Nevertheless, on net we see somewhat higher risks of a recession following our forecast changes, and are therefore raising our odds of a recession in the next 12 months to 35%.

  Bottom line: we “applaud” Goldman for again predicting that the Fed will achieve its stated goal of pushing the US into a recession (one year ago, the bank forecast 4% GDP growth, also in line with the Fed’s goal of a soft landing). And, of course, just like last year, Goldman will be dead wrong because not only is the US economy already in a brutal stagflation, but US growth will be deeply negative as soon as early 2023 when unemployment will soar and the economy will collapse, in keeping with FedEx’s shocking warning that a global recession has begun. As such we now look for Goldman’s next – and fare more realistic – GDP cut, one which will see quarterly “growth” for most of 2023 contract by 2%, 3% or more… which will serve as the moment to go long with all margin available as that’s when the Fed will finally realize that the recession its unleashed is anything but “controlled” and could well match the collapse of 2008. That’s when Powell & Co will panic, and as Mike Hartnett has taught us so well over the years, “markets stop panicking and when central planners start.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 09/17/2022 – 14:00

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• Is The End Of COVID-19 In Sight?
  Is The End Of COVID-19 In Sight?

  Delivering his most upbeat message since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic in March 2020, Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of the World Health Organization, said that the end of the pandemic was finally near.

  “We have never been in a better position to end the pandemic. We are not there yet, but the end is in sight,” he said at a media briefing on Wednesday.

  Using the image of a marathon runner approaching the finish line, Dr. Tedros warned against complacency, however, saying that “a marathon runner does not stop when the finish line comes into view. She runs harder, with all the energy she has left.”

  Statista’s Felix Richter notes that while the world is still seeing millions of new Covid-19 cases per week, with the real number probably even higher due to limited testing, those infections are no longer resulting in as many severe cases or deaths as we’ve seen in earlier stages of the pandemic.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  The weekly number of deaths is now lower than it has been at the end of March 2020, and it’s been below that level for a couple of months now.

  Make no mistake, more than one million people still died from Covid this year, but the latest trend in hospitalizations and deaths is encouraging.

  “We can see the finish line,” Dr. Tedros said in conclusion.

  “We’re in a winning position. But now is the worst time to stop running.” To help the world cross the line and avoid the risk of “more variants, more deaths, more disruption, and more uncertainty, the WHO released six policy briefs outlining best practices to save lives, protect health systems, and avoid social and economic disruption.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/16/2022 – 23:20

• 'Toxic' Values Undermining US Ability To Tackle Beijing: Senator
  ‘Toxic’ Values Undermining US Ability To Tackle Beijing: Senator

  Authored by Daniel Y. Teng via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Visiting Australian Senator Andrew Hastie says basic struggles with identifying gender are undermining the ability of the United States to lead the developed world in opposing military aggression from Beijing.

  “These tensions are tearing at the fabric of our democracies, many among us are no longer confident of truth, tradition, and our democratic values,” Hastie, a former Special Air Service operative, told the Hudson Institute on Sept. 15.

  

  The now-opposition defence minister pointed to research by Prof. James Kurth, of Swathmore College, who said the real culture clash was not between the “West and the rest” but within the West itself.

  “This is a clash between Western civilisation and a different grand alliance, one composed of the multicultural and the feminist movements. It is, in short, a clash between Western and post-Western civilisations,” Kurth wrote in The National Interest in 1994.

  The professor predicted in his article that there would be a lack of consensus on basic issues like humanity, justice, and within politics.

  

  In turn, Hastie said this conflict was no longer just playing out in universities but in the mainstream.

  “Toxins are in the mainstream now, seeping through the media, entertainment, in our schools, and our families. It has brought disruption and political consequences for the Western body politic. It makes it harder for our leaders and policymakers to deal with the strategic challenges,” the senator said.

  Hastie said smaller nations could not set into play grand strategies and could only follow bigger countries like the United States.

  “Put starkly, if we can’t agree on basic definitions of gender, how can we possibly agree on national strategy? If we can’t agree on Western values, how can we defend the West?” he added.

  “If we look up from the cultural chaos at home, we see China encroaching on Taiwan and Russia on Eastern Europe.”

  An example of the ongoing debate regarding gender identity is recent orders within the U.S. Pacific Air Forces for leaders to stop using gender, age, or race pronouns in written format, claiming such a move would improve “lethality.”

  “We must embrace, promote and unleash the potential of diversity and inclusion,” according to an email sent out in May to commanders in Guam, a U.S. territory just hours away from the South China Sea.

  Speakers Take Aim at Media Mischaracterising AUKUS

  Hastie also joined a panel discussion moderated by senior fellow Peter Rough, along with Patrick Cronin, Asia-Pacific security chair of the Hudson Institute, and Bryan Clark, former submariner and expert in naval operations.

  Cronin took aim at Australian media for focusing too much on issues like capability gaps, money wastage, “alienating options” for dealing with China, and mischaracterising the deal as one where Australia was becoming an “adjunct to the U.S. Navy.”

  “While there is some validity to these points … it completely misses the fact that America is taking a big gamble on Australia. We’re not talking about just any technology transfer … we’re talking not just about nuclear propulsion, but about technology writ large,” he said.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/16/2022 – 23:00

• 'Sharing' Economy Continues To Spread: Americans With STDs Jump 26% To Seven-Decade Highs
  ‘Sharing’ Economy Continues To Spread: Americans With STDs Jump 26% To Seven-Decade Highs

  During President Biden’s first year in office, cases of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) in the U.S. increased at an alarming rate not seen in nearly seven decades. 

  Politico, quoting preliminary data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said Syphilis rates in 2021 jumped a shocking 26% — or 171,000 new infections — the most significant annual increase since former President Harry Truman was in the White House in 1953. 

  The CDC data found total infections in 2021 surpassed 2020 figures, increasing from 2.4 to 2.5 million.

  

  Chlamydia, which dropped in 2020, had increased 3% last year. Gonorrhea rose 2.8%, accounting for 700,000 infections in 2021. 

  Health officials are voicing serious concern over the latest explosion in STDs. We’ve pointed out that the infections trend has been upward sloping over the last four years: 

  • 2018: “STDs Hit Record Highs As Antibiotic Resistant Gonorrhea Concern Emerges: CDC” 

  • 2019: “American STD Cases Rise To Record High”

  • 2021: “What Are The Symptoms Of Chlamydia” Most Googled Sex Question As STDs Soar

  Numerous factors are being blamed for the increase, notably the virus pandemic, funding cuts for local health departments, opioid and methamphetamine crisis (where people share needles), and even perhaps decreases in condom usage among young people in a post-Covid era. 

  Instead, Covid’s disruption exacerbated problems brought about by years of budget cuts to STD programs and the pervasive stigmatization of poor people of color and LGBTQ communities where infection rates tend to be higher, according to health experts and government officials. –Politico

  Politico pointed out that “preventing new HIV infections, which are tracked separately, slowed during the pandemic, and some parts of the country including San Francisco are even seeing HIV rates increase for the first time in nearly a decade.”

  “Officials warn that without significantly more funding, the U.S. may not reach its goal of ending the spread of the virus by 2030,” Politico continued. 

  CDC warned STD infection trend shows “no signs of slowing” — and comes amid a brave new world where the Great Reset Initiative pushed by the World Economic Forum aims to rebuild economies with twenty-first-century socialism. This means most people ‘will own nothing and will be happy’. 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/16/2022 – 22:40

• Nearly 50 Members Of Congress Call On Pentagon To End Military Vaccine Mandate
  Nearly 50 Members Of Congress Call On Pentagon To End Military Vaccine Mandate

  Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,

  Nearly 50 Republican lawmakers, led by Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.), have called on the Department of Defense (DOD) to withdraw its COVID-19 vaccine mandate for military members, citing concerns over the mandate’s impact on the readiness of the U.S. Armed Forces.

  In a letter to Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin dated Sept. 15 (pdf), lawmakers, including Reps. Chip Roy (R-Texas) and Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), expressed their “grave concerns” over the impact of the mandate, particularly with regard to the U.S. Army.

  “As a result of your mandate, eight percent of the Army’s approximately 1 million soldiers face expulsion, Army recruiters cannot meet their FY22 target, and the Army has cut its projected FY23 end strength by 12,000 soldiers,” they wrote.

  Referring to Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, lawmakers noted that the U.S. military currently faces “a self-imposed readiness crisis.”

  Citing “sparse” data from the Department of Army, they noted that “at least 40,000 National Guardsmen, 20,000 Army Reservists, and at least 15,000 Active Army Soldiers” have not yet received a COVID-19 shot and subsequently face being discharged from service.

  “The Department of Defense’s own Covid response page indicates that approximately 900,000 soldiers are fully vaccinated out of the 1 million soldiers in the Army, Army Reserve, and Army National Guard,” they wrote.

  Lawmakers pointed to testimony delivered in July by Vice Chief of Staff of the Army, Gen. Joseph Martin, before the House Armed Services Committee. During that testimony, Martin stated that “less than 20,000” people were facing discharge for refusing to take the COVID-19 vaccine, much less than the initial figures that officials had provided.

  ‘Inquiries Remain Unanswered’

  However, lawmakers in their letter to the DOD noted that the Army has not published official data pertaining to the number of unvaccinated service members in months.

  “The opaqueness of the Department continues to frustrate Members of Congress attempting to perform oversight of the Executive Branch,” they wrote, noting that their “repeated inquiries remain unanswered.”

  Republicans also pointed to the “thousands of servicemembers” that “have been left in limbo” while they await a formal judgment regarding their medical exemptions to the vaccine.

  “Some have waited for nearly a year to learn if they will be forcibly discharged for their sincerely held religious beliefs or medical concerns,” lawmakers wrote.

  “Furthermore, according to current Army policy, even those few soldiers who receive permanent exemptions will be treated as second-class soldiers for the rest of their careers—each of them requires approval from the Undersecretary of the Army to travel, change assignments, or even attend training courses away from their home station,” they wrote.

  According to U.S Army fragmentary orders published by Fox News, the Army has barred unvaccinated soldiers from official travel unless they receive the undersecretary’s approval.

  “The Department has abused the trust and good faith of loyal servicemembers by handling vaccine exemptions in a sluggish and disingenuous manner,” lawmakers said.

  They then questioned who would replace the roughly 75,000 soldiers if they were to be discharged from the Army. Martin said in July that if a shortfall in Army troop size were to persist, it could have an impact on readiness.

  

  A military member prepares a COVID-19 vaccine in Fort Knox, Ky., on Sept. 9, 2021. (Jon Cherry/Getty Images)

  Service Member Shortfall

  Citing Army Secretary Christine Wormuth’s interview with NBC News earlier this year in which she noted that the Army has only met 52 percent of its recruiting goal for the fiscal year 2022, they asked, “How will it recruit another 75,000 troops beyond its annual target to account for vaccine-related discharges?”

  In that same interview, Wormuth said she believes the Army would end up roughly 12,000 to 15,000 recruits short this year.

  “The data is now clear. The Department of Defense’s Covid vaccine mandate is deleterious to readiness and the military’s ability to fight and win wars,” lawmakers concluded.

  “The vaccine provides negligible benefit to the young, fit members of our Armed Forces, and the mandate’s imposition is clearly affecting the Department’s ability to sustain combat formations and recruit future talent.”

  “We urge you to immediately revoke your Covid-19 vaccine mandate for all servicemembers, civilian personnel, and contractors and re-instate those who have already been discharged.”

  As of July 1, 2022, under the Biden administration’s vaccine mandate, members of the Army National Guard and U.S. Army Reserve who are not vaccinated and do not have an approved exemption are unable to participate in federally funded drills and training and will not receive pay or retirement credit.

  Biden’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate has been in place across the entire military since last year and the White House has defended the move, stating that mass vaccination will help stem the spread of the virus.

  The Epoch Times has contacted the Department of Defense for comment.

  …

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/16/2022 – 22:20

• Mapping The Countries With The Highest Risk Of Flooding
  Mapping The Countries With The Highest Risk Of Flooding

  Devastating floods across Pakistan this summer have resulted in more than 1,400 lives lost and one-third of the country being under water.

  This raises the question: which nations and their populations are the most vulnerable to the risk of flooding around the world?

  Using data from a recent study published in Nature, Visual Capitalist’s Niccolo Conte and Christina Kostandi created this graphic that maps flood risk around the world, highlighting the 1.81 billion people directly exposed to 1-in-100 year floods. The methodology takes into account potential risks from both inland and coastal flooding.

  

  Asian Countries Most at Risk from Rising Water Levels

  Not surprisingly, countries with considerable coastlines, river systems, and flatlands find themselves with high percentages of their population at risk.

  The Netherlands and Bangladesh are the only two nations in the world to have more than half of their population at risk due to flooding, at 59% and 58%, respectively. Vietnam (46%), Egypt (41%), and Myanmar (40%) round out the rest of the top five nations.

  Besides the Netherlands, only two other European nations are in the top 20 nations by percentage of population at risk, Austria (18th at 29%) and Albania (20th at 28%).

  

  The Southeast Asia region alone makes up more than two-thirds of the global population exposed to flooding risk at 1.24 billion people.

  China and India account for 395 million and 390 million people, respectively, with both nations at the top in terms of the absolute number of people at risk of rising water levels. The rest of the top five countries by total population at risk are Bangladesh (94 million people at risk), Indonesia (76 million people at risk), and Pakistan (72 million people at risk).

  How Flooding is Already Affecting Countries Like Pakistan

  While forecasted climate and natural disasters can often take years to manifest, flooding affected more than 100 million people in 2021. Recent summer floods in Pakistan have continued the trend in 2022.

  With 31% of its population (72 million people) at risk of flooding, Pakistan is particularly vulnerable to floods.

  In 2010, floods in Pakistan were estimated to have affected more than 18 million people. The recent floods, which started in June, are estimated to have affected more than 33 million people as more than one-third of the country is submerged underwater.

  The Cost of Floods Today and in the Future

  Although the rising human toll is by far the biggest concern that floods present, they also bring with them massive economic costs. Last year, droughts, floods, and storms caused economic losses totaling $224.2 billion worldwide, nearly doubling the 2001-2020 annual average of $117.8 billion.

  A recent report forecasted that water risk (caused by droughts, floods, and storms) could eat up $5.6 trillion of global GDP by 2050, with floods projected to account for 36% of these direct losses.

  As both human and economic losses caused by floods continue to mount, nations around the world will need to focus on preventative infrastructure and restorative solutions for ecosystems and communities already affected and most at risk of flooding.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/16/2022 – 22:00

• Pressure On China To Devalue Yuan Becoming More Acute
  Pressure On China To Devalue Yuan Becoming More Acute

  By Simon White, Bloomberg Markets Live commentator and reporter

  China’s vulnerability to a heavy private-debt load and the collapsing real-estate market increase the risk that the PBOC allows the yuan to weaken further, or that the fixed exchange-rate system with the dollar is dropped altogether.

  The dollar is rallying again today, putting pressure on currencies around the world. Of significance, the yuan has breached the widely-watched level of 7 for the first time since 2020.

  China has started to push back more heavily against the weakening, with the official yuan fix moving from about 400 pips lower than USD/CNY at last week to 845 pips today.

  

  The PBoC also withdrew yuan liquidity from the market Thursday, as well as last week announcing a reduction in the FX reserve ratio for banks due to take effect today.

  But it is getting harder for China to keep gravity at bay for the yuan.

  China’s growth model of subsidizing the export-facing state-owned enterprise sector by repressing the household one – a policy reinforced by the pandemic – means that China’s ballooning trade surplus is a sign of weakness, not strength.

  In a nominally closed capital-account country, a proxy for capital outflow is given by the difference between FX reserves and the trade surplus. If such a vast surplus was good for growth, we would expect to see FX reserves and deposits rise (even taking account of dollar-devaluation effects to existing reserves).

  Instead, both are falling, highlighting that the trade surpluses are triggering a growth slowdown and net capital flight.

  

  This puts pressure on the yuan.

  Some of the weakening has been sanctioned by the Chinese authorities, easing some of the negative growth impact from capital outflow. But it is clear they are now trying to push back against the yuan’s decline.

  The problem is compounded by the collapse in the real-estate sector. The debt of real-estate companies is down over 60% from last year’s peak. Overall, China has seen a rapid rise in debt over the last ten years, with the cost of servicing it increasing to over 20%, a level that has previously triggered debt crises in other countries.

  

  Also, while the yuan has weakened mostly against the dollar, it has actually strengthened against two of China’s largest trade competitors, Japan and Korea. We may therefore soon see the yuan’s weakness becoming more broad-based, and it also falling against the CFETS FX basket, which has held remarkable steady so far.

  

  To try to avoid a debt-triggered crisis, one lever China can pull is allowing the yuan to weaken further, or even dropping the fixed exchange-rate altogether.

  It is one way to stave off the greater evil of widespread unemployment and civil unrest, dangers China could well face if growth continues to fall.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/16/2022 – 21:40

• US Army's Recruiting Crisis Worsens As Test Scores Drop, Disqualifications Rates Surge
  US Army’s Recruiting Crisis Worsens As Test Scores Drop, Disqualifications Rates Surge

  The US Army has a major recruiting problem and can’t find enough young people who meet the basic requirements to enlist, according to Army Times. 

  Lt. Gen. Maria Gervais, second in command for Army Training and Doctrine Command, sounded off Thursday about the troubling developments. She highlighted disqualification rates for potential recruits jumped from 30-40% (pre-Covid) to a whopping 70% this year due to obesity, low test scores, and/or drug use.

  

  Gervais pointed out the service has experienced a “nosedive” in recruits since July 2021. She explained Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB) scores were 10% lower during the virus pandemic in 2020-21. That figure has since increased to 13% for the most recent high school graduating class. 

  Perhaps America’s youth was dumbed down during Covid with at-home schooling via daily video conferences. The latest Education Department data confirm reading and math scores plummeted. Maybe those kids were playing too many video games or trading ‘meme stocks’ or posting useless videos on TikTok during the pandemic instead of opening a book and learning something valuable. 

  Besides failing to meet academic standards, obesity was another driver of higher disqualification rates. Also, increasing drug use among youngsters didn’t help. 

  The challenges of today’s youth put combat preparedness in question as liberal war hawks are determined to spark World War III in Ukraine and or in the Taiwan Strait. 

  Gen. Joseph Martin, vice chief of staff for the Army, warned in July that the recruitment goal for 2022 could be slashed by a quarter. He said the total size of the Army (including active and reserve components) will decrease by 10,000 troops this year and between 14,000 and 21,000 in 2023. 

  Perhaps lowering the standards to meet targets is a question the service should ponder. Even though the quality is more important than quantity, in tumultuous periods like today, where the world is shifting from a unipolar world to a multipolar world, conflicts tend to ignite — and the US — one who has overseen the unipolar world for decades — will fight ‘tooth and nail’ to maintain the status quo. 

  At least the youth have one thing going for them: obsession with violent video games has desensitized an entire generation to all sorts of violence where war might not be a big shock. 

  Remember, the service’s recruitment crisis has been an ongoing issue but has worsened in the last few years. We pointed out it’s “another signal of declining support for the federal government and its institutions.” 

  Maybe because the military has gotten too ‘woke‘? You know the saying: “go woke, go broke” — this can also happen to empires… 

  The shrinking pool of eligible youth due to obesity, low test scores, or drug use should be a national security threat to US health and security. 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/16/2022 – 21:20

• Violence In California Reaches "Epidemic" Levels As Our Society Rapidly Deteriorates All Around Us
  Violence In California Reaches “Epidemic” Levels As Our Society Rapidly Deteriorates All Around Us

  Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

  I can’t understand why anyone would still want to live in California.  Yes, there are lots of high paying jobs and the weather is very nice, but crime is completely and utterly out of control.  As you will see below, a new report that has just been issued is warning that violence in the state has now reached “epidemic” levels.  The police are doing what they can to try to contain the violence, but at this point they are vastly outnumbered by the predators.  Sadly, this is the end result of literally decades of cultural rot, and what is happening in California is going to happen to the rest of the nation if we do not take urgent action to turn things around.

  

  Originally, I was going to write about something else today.  Tens of thousands of rail and port workers were threatening to go on strike, and this could definitely cause some substantial economic disruptions…

  America is bracing for chaos as tens of thousands of railway, port, and hospital workers look set to strike over the winter – plunging the country into further disruption.

  As many as 60,000 railway workers, 15,000 nurses, and 22,000 West Coast port workers are plotting mass walkouts as they seek better working conditions.

  Several US freight railroads said they were preparing for widespread strike and service interruptions Friday, a deadline set by two holdout labor groups in protracted talks with railroad carriers about better benefits.

  But even though these strikes could cause severe short-term problems, they will eventually be resolved.

  [ZH: And were resolved right before the strike was set to take place]

  So in the greater scheme of things, they really aren’t a major concern.

  On the other hand, our cultural decay is a massive ongoing crisis that isn’t going to go away.

  As I mentioned earlier, a brand new report that was just released is warning that violence in the state of California has risen to “epidemic” levels…

  The Golden State is losing its luster. A troubling new report labels physical and sexual violence in pandemic-era California a statewide “epidemic.” To put it simply, violence is on an alarming rise.

  According to the new annual report from the California Study on Violence Experiences across the Lifespan (CalVEX), violence statistics have seen a significant increase since COVID-19 emerged. The report, conducted by scientists at the University of California San Diego School of Medicine, reports more than one in six Californians (18%) experienced either physical or sexual violence in just the past year.

  If you live in one of the biggest cities in California, this isn’t news to you.

  Once upon a time, the state was a place of great beauty and great tranquility, but now it has been transformed into a crime-infested hellhole.

  I was particularly alarmed by the numbers on sexual violence in this new report…

  While more than 1.5 million adults in California admit to committing acts of sexual violence in the past year, men were more than two times as likely as women to report that they perpetrated sexual violence and intimate partner violence.

  Women also showed greater mental health impacts and life disruptions due to violent experiences, with 82 percent of women reporting anxiety or depression as a result of physically aggressive, coercive or forced sexual behavior.

  Of course much of this violence is being fueled by illegal mind-altering drugs.

  Some of these drugs are so immensely powerful that they literally put people into catatonic states for an extended period of time…

  Can anyone explain to me why Democrat voters enjoy seeing this so much they just keep voting for more? pic.twitter.com/hq4unJn0S8

  — 🗽🐷Piglosi’s Peaks🗻🐘 (@StokingFreedom) September 13, 2022

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  I will never understand why people would willingly do that to themselves.

  Today, we are facing the biggest drug crisis that we have ever seen in American history, and addicts will often do whatever it takes to get another fix.

  Sadly, this is one of the factors that is contributing to skyrocketing rates of shoplifting all over the nation…

  We are all painfully aware of the huge rise in shoplifting and even violent robberies of stores. We watch the videos of thugs brazenly raiding stores, and read about the organized crime rings that have sprung up to profit from the trend. Shoplifting has become a big, if criminal business. Chances are that if you use eBay to purchase a wide range of products at reduced prices you have unwittingly purchased stolen goods. No good way for eBay to stop the practice.

  One homeless man that originally came from Alabama recently admitted that he regularly shoplifts in order to fund his heroin use…

  People say high rent causes homelessness but Ben, who has been homeless in San Francisco for 7 years, says the “vast majority” are homeless due to addiction. Just 6-7% are from SF. Ben says he “boosts” (shoplifts) and breaks into cars to pay for his $60/day heroin habit. pic.twitter.com/uewKTtBuOS

  — Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) February 6, 2022

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  There have been homeless addicts in the streets of San Francisco for years, but now we have reached a point where they are seemingly everywhere.

  The following is what one reporter witnessed during a recent journey through the city…

  I saw complete hopelessness in the eyes of haunted souls dragging themselves down the street looking for their next fix.

  I saw men and women of all ages hunched over on the sidewalks with open wounds all over their bodies.

  I saw the filthy tent cities stinking with human excrement and strewn with needles and pipes.

  I saw children staring in horror at people dying right in front of them.

  At one time, such activity was limited to the bad portions of the city.

  But now addicts that have been drugged out of their minds are pulling down their pants and crapping in the streets right in front of some of the most expensive real estate in San Francisco.

  This has made the wealthy people really angry, and Mayor Breed says that she is finally going to “get serious” about this crisis.

  Of course “getting serious” doesn’t mean arresting a bunch of people and throwing them into prison.

  That just wouldn’t be very “progressive”.

  Instead, authorities in San Francisco are getting ready to launch a “soft-touch” program that will seek to “interrupt” drug trafficking…

  City supervisors released a resolution for a vague ‘soft-touch’ initiative called ‘San Francisco Recovers.’

  And here’s the catch, and it’s a doozy: the plan is being touted as, ‘a way that nobody’s going to jail but we’re doing an effective job of interrupting the drug market and drug scenes.’

  Is this a sick joke?

  Yes, it certainly sounds like a sick joke to me.

  Good luck with all that.

  If major cities such as San Francisco actually want to have a chance of turning things around, they need to send the police out to round up all the drug dealers.

  Unfortunately, police forces in many of our biggest cities are rapidly getting smaller.

  In fact, a whopping 122 officers have left the Seattle Police Department in 2022 alone…

  The liberal city of Seattle is losing police officers amid a major spike in crime, 770 KTTH reported.

  “We’re screwed,” former King County Sheriff John Urqhart said, according to 770 KTTH.

  In total, 122 officers have left the Seattle Police Department in 2022, including six that left in August, 770 KTTH reported, citing a police source. Since the city council voted to defund the police department in 2020, nearly 500 police officers have left the force.

  I wouldn’t want to be a police officer in a major west coast city at this point either.

  They are underpaid, the politicians treat them with tremendous disdain, and they are often hindered by absolutely ridiculous regulations which keep them from doing their jobs effectively.

  We like to think that we are so “advanced”, but the truth is that if you compare video footage from major cities on the west coast from decades ago to video footage from today there is absolutely no comparison.

  Our society is melting down right in front of our eyes, and if we stay on the path that we are currently on there is no future for our country.

  But the politicians insist that people like me have it all wrong.

  They continue to tell us that things are better than ever and that a glorious future for our nation is dead ahead.

  You can believe that if you want, but the truth of what is really happening to our society is on display for the whole world to see.

  America is dying, and we are quickly running out of time to turn things around.

  *  *  *

  It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “7 Year Apocalypse” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/16/2022 – 21:00

• India Overtakes UK To Become Fifth Biggest Economy
  India Overtakes UK To Become Fifth Biggest Economy

  Just a decade ago, Indian GDP was the eleventh largest in the world.

  Now, as Statista’s Martin Armstrong shows in the chart below, with 7 percent growth forecast for 2022, India’s economy has overtaken the United Kingdom’s in terms of size, making it the fifth biggest.

  That’s according to the latest figures from the International Monetary Fund.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  India’s growth is accompanied by a period of rapid inflation in the UK, creating a cost of living crisis and the risk of a recession which the Bank of England predicts could last into 2024.

  This situation, coupled with a turbulent political period and the continued hangover of Brexit, led to Indian output overtaking that of the UK in the final quarter of 2021, with the first of 2022 offering no change in the ranking.

  Looking ahead, the IMF forecasts this to become the new status quo, with India expected to leap further ahead of the UK up to 2027 – making India the fourth largest economy by that time, too, and leaving the UK behind in sixth.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/16/2022 – 20:40

• Mike Pompeo Tells Chicago Crowd He's Prepping For 2024 Run
  Mike Pompeo Tells Chicago Crowd He’s Prepping For 2024 Run

  Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told a crowd in Illinois this week that he is preparing to run for president during the 2024 elections.

  “We’ve got a team in Iowa, a team in New Hampshire and South Carolina. And that’s not random. We are doing the things one would do to get ready,” Pompeo told 1,100 people during a Chicago event on Tuesday, according to a Politico reporter.

  “Unlike others, if I go down an escalator, no one will notice,” Pompeo joked, referring to former President Donald Trump’s announcement in 2015 that he was running.

  

  The Epoch Times has contacted Pompeo’s Champion American Values PAC for comment.

  “We are trying to figure out if that is the next place for us to serve,” he also said during the event. “If we conclude it is, we’ll go make the case to the American people of why that is. And in the end, the American people, I pray, will make a good decision about who’s going to be their next leader.”

  Pompeo, a former secretary of state and director of the CIA under Trump, made the comments while speaking at the Navy SEAL Foundation Midwest Evening of Tribute on Tuesday evening.

  It’s been no secret that Pompeo may be planning to run for president in 2024. In August, the former GOP congressman said he would run for the nation’s highest office “no matter who decides to get in,” including his former boss.

  “We’re going to make our decision based on if we think this is the right place for us to serve,” Pompeo said at a Faith and Freedom barbeque in late August. “If I come to believe I ought to become president, that I have something to offer the American people, I will run no matter who all decides to get in and who else decides not to get in the race.”

  Pompeo has not made an official announcement on whether he will run. Trump and other top Republican candidates similarly have not said whether they will run, although Trump has strongly hinted that he would in several public speaking engagements.

  In a July interview with The Hill, Trump indicated that it’s not a question of whether he will run but rather a question of when he’ll make the announcement. That came weeks before the FBI raided the former president’s Mar-a-Lago on Aug. 8, which Pompeo condemned last month.

  “I would say my big decision will be whether I go before or after,” he said. “You understand what that means?”

  Trump also indicated that the announcement would come around the 2022 midterm elections. “Do I go before or after? That will be my big decision,” he said.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/16/2022 – 20:20

• One Year Of Global Waste Visualized
  One Year Of Global Waste Visualized

  Waste generation is expected to jump to 3.4 billion tonnes over the next 30 years, compared to 2.2 billion in 2019.

  This is due to a number of factors, such as population growth, urbanization, and economic growth.

  As Visual Capitalist’s Bruno Venditti details below, and in this graphic by Northstar Clean Technologies, the impact of waste generation varies worldwide and explains how it can be reduced.

  

  The Growing Pile of Global Waste

  The United States is the world’s most wasteful country, with each American producing a whopping 809 kg (1780 lbs) of waste every year.

  Approximately half of the country’s yearly waste will meet its fate in one of the more than 2,000 active landfills across the nation. The country also has the largest landfill in the world, Apex, located in Clark County, Nevada.

  The United States is followed by other industrialized countries like Denmark, New Zealand, Canada, and Switzerland based on average annual per capita municipal waste generation.

  

  Compared to those in developed nations, residents in developing countries are more severely impacted by unsustainably managed waste. In low-income countries, over 90% of waste is often disposed of in unregulated dumps or openly burned, according to the World Bank.

  In this scenario, the need for authorities to provide adequate waste treatment has become ever more important. However, less than 20% of waste is recycled each year, with huge quantities still sent to landfill sites.

  Repurposing Waste

  One of the major sources of waste is the construction industry. Every year, around 12 million tons of used asphalt shingles are dumped into landfills across North America.

  Similar to roads, asphalt shingles have oil as the primary component, which is especially harmful to the environment.

  However, using technology, the primary components in shingles can be repurposed into liquid asphalt, aggregates, and fiber for use in road construction, embankments, and new shingles.

  Providing the construction industry with clean, sustainable processing solutions is also a big business opportunity. Canada alone is a $1.3 billion market for recovering and reprocessing shingles.

  Even though 100% zero waste may sound difficult to achieve in the near future, a zero waste approach is essential to reduce our impact on the environment.

  Northstar Clean Technologies’ mission is to be the leader in the recovery and reprocessing of asphalt shingles in North America.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/16/2022 – 20:00

• Fauci Says He's Handed Over Documents For Big Tech Censorship Lawsuit
  Fauci Says He’s Handed Over Documents For Big Tech Censorship Lawsuit

  Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Dr. Anthony Fauci said Sept. 14 that he and his staff members have handed over all responsive documents to a lawsuit alleging the U.S. government colluded with Big Tech to censor social media users.

  “I have handed and my staff have handed over every document that the Department of Justice has asked for, and it’s up to them to make it available, but I have held nothing back from anything that I was asked to provide,” Fauci said during a Senate hearing in Washington.

  

  The attorneys general of Missouri and Louisiana filed the suit in May, and the first tranche of discovery returned evidence of collusion, including emails between the federal officials at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the White House and officials at Facebook parent company Meta, Google, and Twitter.

  Absent from the release were any messages from Fauci and just a few involving officials at the agency he directs, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

  That’s because government lawyers asserted most of Fauci’s communications should be shielded. U.S. District Judge Terry Doughty, the Trump appointee overseeing the case, disagreed.

  “First, the requested information is obviously very relevant to Plaintiffs’ claims. Dr. Fauci’s communications would be relevant to Plaintiffs’ allegations in reference to alleged suppression of speech relating to the lab-leak theory of COVID-19’s origin, and to alleged suppression of speech about the efficiency of masks and COVID-19 lockdowns,” Doughty said.

  The judge ordered the government on Sept. 6 to produce the requested Fauci records to plaintiffs within 21 days.

  “Any communications that are made in that regard as far as I’m concerned are an open book and available,” Fauci said during the Senate hearing.

  The Department of Justice and NIAID did not return requests for comment.

  Personal Cell Phone

  Fauci has acknowledged that he was in contact with Mark Zuckerberg, the CEO of Facebook.

  Several emails between them sent in 2020 were released in 2021 through a Freedom of Information Act response.

  Zuckerberg asked whether he could provide resources to “potentially accelerate” the COVID-19 vaccines, which were still in development at that time. Fauci thanked him and said that “I believe we will be OK.”

  “There was one communication or two perhaps with Mark Zuckerberg in which he emailed me and wanted to know if there was anything he could do,” Fauci said under questioning by Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.) in July 2021. “It was mostly propagating a public health message, it had nothing to do with the origins of the virus at all.”

  Braun asked if Fauci consults with social media companies frequently, and Fauci said no. Fauci also said he was “not sure” whether he had Zuckerberg’s cell phone number.

  The discovery produced so far in the lawsuit shows that Zuckerberg provided Fauci with the number, according to a joint statement by plaintiffs and defendants.

  “And on August 28, 2022, Meta disclosed Dr. Fauci in its list of 32 federal officials who may have communicated with Meta about content modulation on Facebook and Instagram,” they said. Meta is the parent company of Facebook and Instagram.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/16/2022 – 19:40

• China Taps 'Strategic Pork Reserves' In Largest Monthly Release Yet
  China Taps ‘Strategic Pork Reserves’ In Largest Monthly Release Yet

  China, the world’s top consumer and pork producer, tapped its ‘strategic pork reserves’ to dump the largest amount of supplies ever into the marketplace in one month to cool prices. 

  A statement from the country’s economic planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), indicates that the first batch of pork reserves flooded regional markets on Sept. 9. The second batch is slated for Sept. 18.

  “According to the amount already put in and the plan for later release, it is expected that the country and localities will put a total of about 200,000 tons of pork reserves in September, and the amount put in a single month will reach the highest level in history,” NDRC said in a statement. 

  

  The move comes as consumer prices hit a two-year high in July with a 2.7% increase YoY, due mainly to a rebound in pork prices.

  

  Wholesale pork prices have more than doubled since March. The good news is prices are still well below prices during the pig ebola days of 2019-20. 

  

  NDRC said the pork reserves are well supplied and have more than enough to maintain an orderly market, adding it will monitor market changes if more releases are needed. 

  The agency also asked farmers to increase the number of live pigs sold at markets.  

  A new survey via research firm Oliver Wyman found that Chinese people are beginning to complain about inflation as pork prices rise. However, inflation is not nearly anywhere compared to the US and the rest of the world. 

  The only thing President Xi Jinping can’t afford is discontent among the population due to rising prices … thus Beijing will continue dumping pork supplies to tame prices. 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/16/2022 – 19:20

• US Announces Fund To Benefit Afghan Economy – Using Stolen Afghan Bank Reserves
  US Announces Fund To Benefit Afghan Economy – Using Stolen Afghan Bank Reserves

  Authored by Julia Conley via Common Dreams,

  Rights organizations on Thursday responded to a new Biden administration plan to use $3.5 billion in U.S.-held Afghan funds to “help mitigate the economic challenges” facing the people of Afghanistan by saying the proposal was “better than keeping that money locked away in a U.S. vault” but must only be the first step in returning $7 billion in stolen money to Afghanistan.

  Following months of outcry from economists, peace groups, and Afghan rights campaigners, the U.S. Treasury Department said Wednesday that it is coordinating with international partners, including the Swiss government, to establish what it called the “Afghan Fund.”

  The fund will include “$3.5 billion of Afghan central bank reserves to be used for the benefit of the people of Afghanistan while keeping them out of the hands of the Taliban and other malign actors,” the Treasury Department said, and will make “targeted disbursements of that $3.5 billion to help provide greater stability to the Afghan economy.”

  

  The Afghan economic justice group Unfreeze Afghanistan said that “the freezing of this money has devastated Afghanistan’s economy and contributed to one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world,”

  “Over the past year, the banks have been so starved for cash that Afghans have been unable to withdraw their own money for paying basic household expenses or running their businesses,” said the group. “We believe the Afghan people would ultimately be best assisted if these funds are quickly made available for Central Bank functions.”

  The money being placed in the Afghan Fund represents half of the Da Afghanistan Bank (DAB) reserves, stored in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which were seized by the U.S. earlier this year even as Afghanistan faced a worsening hunger crisis.

  The Biden administration said earlier this year that the other $3.5 billion would be retained to potentially be claimed by the families of victims of the September 11, 2001 attacks to settle legal judgments against the Taliban—a proposal that several families objected to, saying the money belonged to the people of Afghanistan.

  Last month, a U.S. federal judge concluded that the families should not be permitted to claim the funds. On Wednesday, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman said the U.S. is taking an “important, concrete step forward in ensuring that additional resources can be brought to bear to reduce suffering and improve economic stability for the people of Afghanistan while continuing to hold the Taliban accountable.”

  The Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) denounced the Biden administration’s statement as “pure spin,” noting that the $3.5 billion in Afghan funds is not the United States’ money to disburse. “The Afghan Fund is funded by Afghanistan, and the U.S. is only delivering unprecedented suffering,” said the CEPR.

  Since the U.S. has withheld the $7 billion from the DAB, Afghanistan’s humanitarian crisis has steadily grown more dire, with six million people facing famine and an estimated three million children suffering from acute malnourishment. September 11th Families for Peaceful Tomorrows expressed gratitude that the Afghan economy will receive a boost through the Afghan Fund, and called on the Biden administration to return the full $7 billion it confiscated.

  Unfreeze Afghanistan said that now that the U.S. has committed to place $3.5 billion in the fund, the reserves must be sent to the DAB as quickly as possible to benefit the Afghan people. The DAB has already agreed to independent monitoring of its funds, said Unfreeze Afghanistan, adding that the international community must now “assist DAB in getting the technical capacity needed to implement” anti-money laundering and anti-terrorism funding controls.

  Pure spin.

  The Afghan Fund is funded by Afghanistan, and the US is only delivering unprecedented suffering.

  The US confiscated $7B and directed EU allies to seize another $2B, amounting to the expropriation of 45% of Afghanistan’s economy. @POTUS #UnfreezeAfghanistan now. https://t.co/OOv5fWiYww

  — CEPR (@ceprdc) September 15, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “We urge the U.S. government, the Afghan Fund, and DAB to work closely together to ensure that the money from the Afghan Fund is channeled to the Afghan central bank as soon as possible,” said the group, “with the goal of shoring up the nation’s economy and alleviating the suffering of the Afghan people.”

  U.S. Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, added the U.S. must “follow this action by reassuring banks and governments worldwide that engage with Afghanistan’s central bank to provide liquidity will not face sanctions.”

  Afghanistan’s current crisis “has been intensified by the Western freeze of Afghanistan’s reserve assets held abroad—a policy that has contributed to an economic depression, mass hunger, and displacement,” said Jayapal. “While this fund has the potential to unlock $3.5 billion of the $7 billion in U.S. possession—which should be pursued swiftly—we believe the full $7 billion that rightfully belongs to the Afghan people should be restored to the Central Bank.”

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/16/2022 – 19:00

• New York City Ride-Hailing Still Feeling Pandemic Crunch
  New York City Ride-Hailing Still Feeling Pandemic Crunch

  According to reports from Bloomberg and W42ST, Uber has been rolling out its collaboration with New York City taxis which the groups had agreed on back in March.

  Statista’s Katharina Buchholz reports that under the agreement, cabs can be ordered using the Uber app as long as drivers opt in. Taxis will be offered at the same pre-calculated fares usual for Ubers and will be priced at the level of UberX.

  The unlikely alliance between the two actors long considered mortal enemies was first announced for New York City, but has since been expanded to Brussels and a nationwide Italian cab company as well as providers in Spain, Greece, Germany and Austria. Yet, the New York deal remains most remarkable as Uber has been relegated to licensed taxis business in European countries anyways. So how did it come about in such a highly competitive and lucrative market for taxis and ride-shares like New York City?

  According to March reports by The Wall Street Journal, Uber had been struggling with driver shortages amid the U.S. labor crunch, which led fare rises. A look at the development of average daily taxi and ride-hailing rides in New York City by the NYC Taxi and Limousine Commission aptly shows the struggles Uber as well as traditional taxi companies have been going through since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. The number of all rides in New York City plunged in early 2020 and neither taxis nor ride-hailing have fully recovered yet.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  While ride-share drivers more easily entered other industries when business was down in the worst times of the pandemic, taxi drivers and operators were more likely to stick around but are now acutely looking to make up for pandemic losses. This twist of events causes taxi drivers of all people to be exactly the personnel that Uber is looking for at the present moment. But Uber wouldn’t be Uber if it didn’t use the opportunity to go all out on a new strategy. As part of the course change, Uber’s global mobility chief Andrew Macdonald said in March that his company wanted to list every taxi in the world on its app by 2025.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/16/2022 – 18:40

• F-16 Pilot Died Because His Ejection Seat May Have Been Counterfeit
  F-16 Pilot Died Because His Ejection Seat May Have Been Counterfeit

  By Rachel Cohen of DefenseNews

  An Air Force investigation of a fatal fighter jet crash in 2020 quietly discovered that key components of the pilot’s ejection seat may have been counterfeit, Air Force Times has learned.

  

  First Lt. David Schmitz, an F-16 Fighting Falcon pilot at South Carolina’s Shaw Air Force Base, died June 30, 2020, when his ejection seat malfunctioned as he tried to escape from a failed nighttime landing. He was 32.

  The Air Force’s official inquiry in the months following the accident found that electronics inside the seat were scratched, unevenly sanded and showed otherwise shoddy craftsmanship.

  That raised red flags at the Air Force Research Laboratory, which called for a closer look to confirm whether the pieces were fraudulent, according to previously unreported slides provided to Air Force Times. It’s unclear whether that question was ever answered.

  While the Air Force suspected parts of the seat were counterfeit, it buried the information in a nonpublic section of its accident investigation report.

  Those details have come to light in a federal civil lawsuit filed by Schmitz’s widow, Valerie, who is suing three defense companies for negligence and misleading the Air Force about the safety of their products.

  “What the military does is inherently dangerous to begin with,” plaintiff attorney Jim Brauchle said Tuesday. “If you’re going to be engaging in that kind of activity, you want to be doing it with equipment that’s going to work.”

  The case in U.S. District Court in South Carolina targets F-16 manufacturer Lockheed Martin; Collins Aerospace, which builds the ACES II ejection seat installed on planes across the Air Force; and multiple business units of Teledyne Technologies, which makes the seat’s digital recovery sequencer.

  A sequencer is supposed to execute the steps of the ejection process when triggered in an emergency. Teledyne’s product is used in ejection seats on the F-15, F-16, F-22 and F-117 fighter jets, the A-10 attack plane, and B-1 and B-2 bombers around the world, according to its website.

  In Schmitz’s case, the ejection seat shot 130 feet into the air but failed to deploy its parachute. The airman hit the ground about seven seconds later while still strapped into his seat. He died on impact.

  The public version of the Air Force’s official accident report, released in November 2020, blamed the mishap on how Schmitz mishandled his descent into Shaw, as well as his supervisor’s suggestion to try a tail hook landing instead of telling Schmitz to eject earlier.

  Brauchle argues that glosses over the true cause of Schmitz’s death.

  “What ultimately killed him was the ejection seat failure,” he said. “It has only one job, and that’s to get the pilot out and to get out a [parachute].”

  The public accident report acknowledged that the sequencer malfunction contributed to Schmitz’s death, but did not offer further details.

  According to Air Force Research Laboratory slides dated Aug. 3, 2020, however, the service suspected that several transistors and microchips inside the sequencer were fake. Valerie’s legal team obtained the slides through a Freedom of Information Act request.

  Six transistors “had no conformal coating, were heavily gouged, had arcing scratch marks, were considered obsolete and were suspected of being counterfeit,” the complaint said. A capacitor that may have been damaged while it was handled was “partially dislodged.”

  Suppliers Atmel, Analog Devices and Siliconix provided the potentially counterfeit transistors, memory chips and accelerometer chip, according to the Air Force slides.

  The lab also found signs that Teledyne had destroyed evidence related to the case, the lawsuit said. Teledyne appeared to have replaced five microchips on the sequencer before sending it to the lab.

  “Teledyne had removed the printed wiring board from the DRS housing and had mounted the [board] to a ‘test fixture,’” the lawsuit said. “Teledyne had cut the leads on Channel #2′s parallel flash memory chip to facilitate chip removal.”

  Still, the lab said it wasn’t sure whether any of those parts caused the ejection seat to fail.

  “The parts … are strictly considered suspect at this time,” AFRL wrote in 2020. “Destructive analysis on these components, and analysis of components on other DRS boards, would be required to provide [a] higher level of confidence in whether or not they are counterfeit.”

  Plaintiffs hope to learn through the legal discovery process whether the components were proven fake. Counterfeiting has plagued the Pentagon’s supply chain for decades, and contractors are often unaware they are providing faulty materials.

  “The DoD is aware of this problem and is working to eliminate these components from supply chains,” the Air Force Research Laboratory said.

  Plaintiffs are also questioning whether the sequencers meet the Air Force’s standard of reliability. The Air Force Safety Center recommended in 2012 that the sequencer be replaced with more reliable hardware.

  Delays in that replacement effort led the Air Force to continue using sequencers longer than intended — including on Schmitz’s fighter jet.

  To keep an eye on potential degradation, contractors tested 60 sequencers in 2017 and 2018, the lawsuit said. Three were flagged for further evaluation. Teledyne found that two of the three units would have functioned properly in an ejection.

  Two years after that testing, the lawsuit claims, the companies hadn’t said whether the third unit passed muster. Still, the Air Force relied on the test data when it decided to continue using the sequencer that ended up in Schmitz’s F-16, the lawsuit said.

  Now, the plaintiffs are calling for a jury trial to recoup damages that could total several million dollars.

  The complaint accuses the contractors of wrongful death, accident liability, misrepresentation of the seat’s airworthiness, negligent supervision on Lockheed’s part, failure to warn the F-16 community and the public about the seat’s flaws, and violation of South Carolina law.

  Brauchle indicated a successful trial would offer Valerie some closure after losing her husband, her support network of military friends and the Air Force’s backing.

  “‘Here’s your [life insurance payment], here’s your outbrief, see you later,’” he said of the Air Force’s response. “Then she feels like they’re not giving her the whole truth, and that hurts even more.”

  Plaintiffs said the Air Force has stonewalled further requests for information due to a federal law enforcement probe. A recent response to the legal team cited a law that allows the government to withhold information that is “expected to interfere with enforcement proceedings.”

  “Any responsive documents to your request are not releasable to you at this time. … Your request has been closed,” wrote Roxanne Jensen, head of OSI’s FOIA branch, to Valerie’s legal team on June 22.

  Brauchle said the Air Force isn’t named as a defendant in the case because it is protected by the Feres Doctrine, which blocks active duty troops from suing the military for most damages incurred as a result of their service.

  Air Force spokesperson Rose Riley declined to comment on the claims made in the lawsuit.

  “We are not tracking this court case or any related investigations,” she said Tuesday.

  Multiple Air Force organizations did not respond to questions from Air Force Times, including the Air Force Research Laboratory; Air Force Office of Special Investigations; Air Combat Command, which oversees the F-16 fleet; or the Air Force Safety Center.

  Lockheed Martin spokesperson Leslie Farmer declined to answer questions on pending litigation. Other lawyers and representatives for Lockheed, Collins and Teledyne did not respond by press time Tuesday.

  The defendants are required to file a rebuttal in court by the end of September.

  Schmitz’s crash sparked renewed discussion in Washington about the measures needed to keep military pilots safe. Eighty-nine people have been killed in Air Force mishaps since 2012, according to the Air Force Safety Center. Six of those incidents occurred in the F-16.

  Reporting by Military.com last year illuminated concerns about whether the airman was pushed too hard to fly a training sortie with tasks he hadn’t yet tried at night because of an upcoming deployment, and about slow-moving ejection seat repairs.

  Schmitz’s seat hadn’t been fixed in three years because of a spare parts shortage. The Air Force put off addressing the problem despite knowing it could turn fatal, Military.com reported.

  After his death, Congress passed a law requiring the Air Force and Navy to provide updates on their ejection seats twice a year.

  Lawmakers want to know how many seats are installed at each active flying base, and how many have a waiver that clears them for use, despite needing repairs or replacement parts. They also ask for more transparency regarding who signed off on each waiver and when.

  The first report was due to Congress on Feb. 1.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/16/2022 – 18:20

• Tesla Is Now Requiring Powerwall Purchases For Every Solar Roof Install
  Tesla Is Now Requiring Powerwall Purchases For Every Solar Roof Install

  Well this is one way to move more product and keep the energy business narrative alive…

  Tesla is now reportedly requiring every solar roof install to be accompanied by a Powerwall, according to a new report from electrek. The required add-on is expected to significantly increase the cost of solar roof projects, the blog noted. 

  Electrek has learned from sources familiar with the matter that starting last week, Tesla is requiring every new solar roof project to include a Powerwall. The move will accelerate Powerwall deployment and add more prospective members to Tesla’s growing virtual power plants.

  The company’s solar roof business has already been slow to get off the ground – recall earlier this year we noted that the company had suspended installs of the roof due to “supply chain issues”. 

  The company is reportedly rescheduling now for the fourth quarter of this year, the report says. 

  

  As the blog notes, Tesla’s energy sales last quarter were just $866 million, compared to auto business of $14.6 billion. The forced add-on of Powerwalls will likely help bolster that number in future quarters. The blog noted that Tesla is ramping up production of Powerwalls to meet what will become newfound demand: 

  On top of ramping up deployment, Tesla has been working on new energy products and testing a new version of Solar Roof (v3.5), but the company is also looking to leverage its energy assets to provide grid services, like through its virtual power plants leveraging Powerwall installations. Last week, we reported that Tesla is finally getting more Powerwall availability with an impressive production ramp to 6,500 Powerwalls per week.

  After being part and parcel with the controversial Solar City bailout, Tesla’s solar roof tiles have long been at the center of controversy. Recall, back in December 2021 we reported about an ongoing SEC probe into the company’s solar panels. “The company was being probed by the Securities and Exchange commission over claims about defects on its solar panels made by a former-employee-turned whistleblower,” we wrote.

  In describing the allegations made by the whistleblower, Reuters wrote that “…the company failed to properly notify its shareholders and the public of fire risks associated with solar panel system defects over several years.”

  The SEC disclosed the probe after “a Freedom of Information Act request by Steven Henkes, a former Tesla field quality manager, who filed a whistleblower complaint on the solar systems in 2019 and asked the agency for information about the report,” Bloomberg wrote early Monday morning.

  “We have confirmed with Division of Enforcement staff that the investigation from which you seek records is still active and ongoing,” the SEC reportedly said in their response to Henkes.

  Henkes was “fired from Tesla in August 2020 and he sued Tesla claiming the dismissal was in retaliation for raising safety concerns,” the report says. 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/16/2022 – 18:00

• Massachusetts Gov. Activates National Guard, Sends Martha's Vineyard Illegal Immigrants To Military Base
  Massachusetts Gov. Activates National Guard, Sends Martha’s Vineyard Illegal Immigrants To Military Base

  The Massachusetts governor’s office announced Friday that dozens of illegal immigrants who were transported to Martha’s Vineyard will be taken to a military base in Cape Cod, while some members of the National Guard will be activated.

  

  Venezuelan migrants stand outside St. Andrew’s Church in Edgartown, Massachusetts, U.S. September 14, 2022

  As Jack Phillips reports via The Epoch Times, the move comes as video footage and photos show the illegal aliens – of mostly Venezuelan descent – being transported on several buses from the St. Andrew’s Episcopal Church in Martha’s Vineyard, a Massachusetts island that is popular among the rich and powerful Democrats.

  It took less than 24 hours for the libs to kick these illegal immigrants out of Martha’s Vineyard, but Biden won’t lift a finger to deport the thousands of illegals pouring through the southern border daily out of the country. https://t.co/o19mTKbc6S

  — Donald Trump Jr. (@DonaldJTrumpJr) September 16, 2022

  Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker’s office announced Friday that it is going to mobilize 125 members of the National Guard and said that families and individuals will be housed at the Joint Base Cape Cod.

  “We are grateful to the providers, volunteers, and local officials that stepped up on Martha’s Vineyard over the past few days to provide immediate services to these individuals,” Baker said in a statement.

  “Our administration has been working across state government to develop a plan to ensure these individuals will have access to the services they need going forward, and Joint Base Cape Cod is well equipped to serve these needs.”

  The move by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican, sparked outrage among left-wing commentators and pundits on social media.

  California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, claimed the Department of Justice should investigate DeSantis and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott on human trafficking charges busing illegal immigrants.

  Hillary Clinton today agreed with MSNBC host Joe Scarborough that  Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis sending 50 undocumented migrants to Martha’s Vineyard is “literally human trafficking.”

  Twice-failed presidential candidate Hillary Clinton says giving illegal aliens bus and plane tickets to New York City and Martha’s Vineyard is “literally human trafficking.” Ignores the fact Biden has been flying them around the country in the dark of night for the past 2 years. pic.twitter.com/VYpeYW1jUN

  — Ishikawa Katsumi (@TwistedEagle49) September 16, 2022

  On the program, Scarborough repeated the common claim that this transportation qualifies as “human trafficking.” In fairness to Scarborough and Clinton, some law professors have echoed this view which is wholly at odds with not just the governing statutory provisions but controlling case law.

  Clinton, who is a lawyer, chimed in with the same dubious analysis:

  “I think, Joe, you have laid out the craziness of the time in which we’re living where some politicians would rather not only have an issue but exacerbate it to the extent of literally human trafficking, as you said.”

  So, as Jonathan Turley writes, MSNBC and these legal experts are telling the public that the consensual transport of migrants within the country constitutes human trafficking. While Turley notes there are good-faith reasons to oppose the transportation to migrants to the island, he points out in detail here that, as a legal matter, this is legally nonsense.

  But DeSantis argued Thursday that the Biden administration has failed in its duty to secure the border, while Abbott said that New York City, Chicago, and Washington D.C. are suitable locations for illegal immigrants due to their “sanctuary city” status. After the Martha’s Vineyard deployment, few Democrats made mention of the crisis that’s emerged along the U.S.–Mexico border or the White House’s immigration policies.

  ‘America Knows These Problems’

  Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) told Fox Business that he believes DeSantis’ decision to send two flights of illegal aliens to Martha’s Vineyard will help highlight problems with the southern border.

  “I will tell you, House Republicans have highlighted all the problems, and I think America knows these problems,” Gonzales, who represents Texas’s 23rd Congressional District, told the outlet Friday. “I say now it’s time for House Republicans to show action. We’re going to win back the majority here in November.”

  The White House, meanwhile, criticized DeSantis’s move to bus illegal aliens to Martha’s Vineyard and Abbott’s recent decision to send buses of illegal immigrants to Vice President Kamala Harris’s residence in Washington.

  “The children … deserve better than being left on the streets of D.C. or being left in Martha’s Vineyard,” press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said.

  A report last month issued by the Federation for American Immigration Reform found that illegal immigration has skyrocketed under the Biden administration, with nearly 5 million people illegally entering the United States in the past year and a half. The group blamed the administration’s policies as well as its decision to reverse several Trump-era immigration rules.

  “Roughly the equivalent of the entire population of Ireland has illegally entered the United States in the 18 months President Biden has been in office, with many being released into American communities,” the group wrote in August, attacking the White House for having no “willingness to enforce our laws.”

  Buses have arrived in Edgartown to transport migrants from St. Andrew’s Parish House.

  There is one big bus and two shorter buses to transport folks off the island. People with bags are taking selfies and hugging volunteers goodbye pic.twitter.com/wuauiZM4Y3

  — Samantha J. Gross (@samanthajgross) September 16, 2022

  Sheriffs from across the U.S. slammed the Democratic leaders of several sanctuary cities for complaining about receiving illegal migrants from the southern border, they told the Daily Caller News Foundation.

  “It’s an example of just the height of hypocrisy much like I’m seeing in my local community. We have people of that mind that think basically ‘anywhere but my backyard,’” Culpeper County, Virginia, Sheriff Scott H. Jenkins told the DCNF Friday.

  “It’s happening in every community,” Jenkins explained.

  “So, it’s time for America to wake up and realize it’s not a southwest border issue or a Texas, Arizona issue, it’s every county is a border county.”

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/16/2022 – 17:40

• Deloitte Sees Slowdown In Holiday Sales Growth As Inflation Grinch Hurts Households
  Deloitte Sees Slowdown In Holiday Sales Growth As Inflation Grinch Hurts Households

  Real wage growth has stayed deeply negative for more than a year, and consumer confidence is extremely low amid persistent high inflation that is wrecking household finances. The souring macro backdrop has also wiped out personal savings and racked up credit card debt as households struggle for survival amid soaring cost of living. 

  So what does this all mean for the upcoming holiday season in terms of retail sales? 

  To answer that question, Deloitte’s US economic forecaster Daniel Bachman explains retail sales are projected to slow from November through January. 

  “Retail sales are likely to be further affected by declining demand for durable consumer goods, which had been the centerpiece of pandemic spending,” Bachman said in a report. 

  He “anticipated more spending on consumer services, such as restaurants, as the effects of the pandemic continue to wane.”

  Deloitte expects retail sales for November, December, and January to be 4% to 6% higher than the $1.39 trillion retail sales for the same period in 2021. 

  This compares to a 15.1% jump last year versus the same period in 2020, fueled by pent-up demand and stimmy checks, which caused consumers to spend like there was no tomorrow. There’s a noticeable slowdown in this year’s estimates as they’re more in line with pre-pandemic trends. 

  Bachman said the sharp pullback from last year “reflects the slowdown in the economy.” 

  Deloitte noted high inflation would push more consumers online in search of deals. The consulting firm forecasts e-commerce sales for the holiday season could be up 13% to 14% from 2021’s $231 billion — that’s a quicker growth rate than last year’s 8.4%.

  There’s no question that this year’s shopping season will be very challenging for retailers as consumers have changed spending behaviors from durable goods to experiences. 

  The latest evidence of this was a warning from Sweden’s Electrolux AB, the world’s second-largest home appliances manufacturer, which said demand for home appliances across the US has plunged.

  The good news for consumers is that retailers are stuck with a massive inventory glut of consumer goods. This suggests retailers will be bringing back holiday promotions more than ever to liquidate the excess — this will be bad news for company earnings.

  

  Inflation could be the Grinch that stole Christmas as households cut back on durable goods spending amid the ongoing inflationary environment. 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/16/2022 – 17:20

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• Democrats Are Trying To Trump-Proof The Government In Case He Wins In 2024
  Democrats Are Trying To Trump-Proof The Government In Case He Wins In 2024

  Authored by Fred Lucas via 19fortyfive.com,

  Is this what a party does when it can’t keep voting on articles of impeachment?

  

  It’s been almost two years since former President Donald Trump’s defeat, yet House Democrats have managed to build an entire legislative agenda around Trump Derangements Syndrome.

  The House Oversight and Reform Committee alone has been firing away Trump-obsessed legislation, as Democratic sponsors for bills on the Census, civil service, and whistleblower protections all cite Trump as a key part of the justification for the proposals. The common line connecting all the bills is to curb executive power that should be in the hands of an elected president and enhance the power of unelected and largely unaccountable bureaucrats.

  Three of the bills that began in the oversight panel cleared the House Rules Committee this week to move to the House floor.

  Trump Derangement Syndrome is clearly real. To be clear, it’s not necessarily better or worse than Trump sycophancy. Americans–whether serving in public office or everyday working stiffs–should never base their life around idolatry of or seething hatred for one prominent leader. But, of course, that has happened with Trump. I suppose polarizing is a shorter way to put it, but that term seems so trite.

  Anyway, the anti-Trump side is presently being more ridiculous and pettier. If Trump sycophancy becomes a legislative agenda, I’ll reconsider that judgment.

  The silliness of it all is that Trump might be the only Republican–at least top tier Republican–who could lose to either Joe Biden or Kamala Harris in 2024. While that’s questionable, House Democrats are advancing bills through committee as if they think he’s a sure thing come January 2025 – or water down a second Trump term as much as possible by weakening presidential authority.

  Also, some of the bills are based on silly anti-Trump conspiracy theories. The bills would effectively politicize executive branch agencies that shouldn’t be.

  HR 8326, dubbed the Ensuring a Fair and Accurate Census Act would make it more difficult for a president to fire a Census Bureau director, while also granting the director broad new authorities to conduct statistical sampling. It would expand the number of Census Bureau employees with civil service protections. It also constrains future censuses from inquiring about citizenship–which could favor Democrats for enumeration and apportionment.

  When the oversight committee advanced the bill in July, committee Chairwoman Carolyn Maloney, D-N.Y., complained about the “Trump administration’s illegal efforts to weaponize the Census Bureau for political gain.”

  House Oversight Committee Democrats Reps. Gerald Connolly of Virginia and Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania co-sponsored H.R. 302, dubbed the Preventing a Patronage System Act. The theory is that if Trump is elected, he would eliminate the civil service system and return to a spoils system.

  The press release for the bill references Trump’s final months in office, when he signed an executive order creating a “Schedule F” category of federal employees.

  The order determined that career employees with civil service protections involved with “policy-determining, policy-making, or policy-advocating” positions that are “not normally subject to change as part of a presidential transition” could be more easily removed for insubordination, which was a problem during the Trump administration.

  This would affect a maximum 50,000 federal employees out of the 2.2 million federal workforce. That’s far from a patronage system.

  The Whistleblower Protection Improvement Act, or H.R. 2988, certainly is a more innocuous sounding name, since many Republican lawmakers love whistleblowers that rat out Democrats. But this bill practically encourages bad actors in the federal workforce to simply engage in meritless accusations–thus abuse the legal whistleblower protections. Whistleblowers have significant legal protection now. But the bill would create a new legal veil around whistleblowers and enshrines whistleblower anonymity in all situations.

  Connolly, the Virginia Democrat, said the bill comes  “in the wake of the Trump administration’s assault on whistleblowers.”

  Maybe considering the record of the Biden administration, Democrats feel they should keep reminding voters of Trump. Perhaps it makes good fundraising letters for these politicians to tell Democrat donors they are still sticking it to the bad orange man.

  Still, one must wonder: if Trump had decided to fade from public life like most presidents, what in the world would hold Democrats together?

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 09/15/2022 – 23:40

• Tropical Storm Fiona Forms In Atlantic; Caribbean Islands In Path
  Tropical Storm Fiona Forms In Atlantic; Caribbean Islands In Path

  After a relatively quiet hurricane season, with no named storms in August, a new tropical system has formed in the Atlantic Basin that should be monitored into the weekend. 

  Tropical Storm Fiona, the sixth named storm of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, is moving westward with sustained winds above 50 mph. It’s about 625 miles east of the Leeward Islands and strengthened from a tropical depression Wednesday.  

  

  The islands of Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla have all issued tropical storm watches. Additional watches and warnings could be issued today. 

  “On the forecast track, the center of the storm is forecast to move through the Leeward Islands late Friday and Friday night, and be near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend,” the hurricane center said.

  

  Meteorologist Zach Covey pointed out that most models show Fiona could hook right into the Atlantic on Monday. At least one model shows the storm could traverse into the Northern Gulf of Mexico, while another shows it riding up the US East Coast. 

  Tropical Storm #Fiona will be tracking through Hebert Box 1 – something most Florida meteorologists know well. The boxes, named after former NHC forecaster Paul Hebert, are two regions used as predictors for hurricanes that can strike South Florida. pic.twitter.com/758NaXGuXJ

  — Zach Covey (@ZachCoveyTV) September 15, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  It’s still too early to determine what path Fiona takes next week, but it’s a storm to watch. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 09/15/2022 – 23:20

• Space Diamonds From Dwarf Planets May Be Future Of Mining & Manufacturing
  Space Diamonds From Dwarf Planets May Be Future Of Mining & Manufacturing

  Authored by Victoria Kelly-Clark via The Epoch Times,

  Tiny folded diamonds that fell to Earth from an ancient dwarf star may sound like something from an intergalactic feature film, but researchers from Australia and the United Kingdom have proven the existence of the rare gems after examining a stony meteorite.

  

  Scientists from Australia and the UK have established the existence of lonsdaleite, a rare hexagonal diamond, no bigger than a human hair, that researchers note is layered into a distinctive folded pattern, unlike the earth-formed diamonds that have a cubic structure.

  The existence of Lonsdaleite—named after the pioneering British crystallographer Dame Kathleen Lonsdale—has previously been the subject of debate because its very existence could not be proven.

  The lead scientist on the research team Prof. Andy Tomkins, from Monash University’s School of Earth, Atmosphere, and Environment, said the mysteries of the rare diamond were what drove him continue researching ureilite meteorites in his lab.

  Tomkins said it was a case of curiosity-driven science.

  “This is exactly the sort of curiosity-piquing observation that sends scientists diving down rabbit holes for months on end,” he said.

  

  Scientists from Australia and the UK have established the existence of lonsdaleite, a rare hexagonal diamond no bigger than human hair. Image shows the ‘The Rock,’ a 228.31-karat pear-shaped white diamond, in Geneva on May 6, 2022. (Fabrice Coffrini/AFP via Getty Images)

  Naturally formed ureilite meteorites contains a higher abundance of diamond than any known rock on Earth. They are also one of the few opportunities to study the mantle layer of dwarf planets.

  The samples are created when asteroids collide with a planet while still hot, creating the ideal conditions for lonsdaleite and diamond growth due to moderate pressure and rapid temperature drops in the fluid and gas-rich environment.

  “These findings help address a long-standing mystery regarding the formation of the carbon phases in ureilites that has been the subject of much speculation,” Tomkins said.

  Tomkins also collaborated with researchers from the CSIRO, RMIT University, the Australian Synchrotron, and Plymouth University to discover samples of lonsdaleite in nature, offering an insight into potential replication of the process for industrial purposes.

  “These diamonds are quite special,” said Alan Salek, physicist and RMIT PhD researcher.

  “Normal diamonds that you would find here on Earth, like on an engagement ring, have a specific atomic structure that’s cubic. These special diamonds are hexagonal in structure.”

  “It’s pretty exciting because it’s a new form of material.”

  The unique shape is believed to be why lonsdaleite is stronger than any other diamond.

  Significant Implications For Mining and Manufacturing

  CSIRO scientist Colin MacRae in a media release, said the discovery has enormous potential for industries like mining.

  “If something that’s harder than diamond can be manufactured readily, that’s something industry would want to know about,” MacRae said.

  

  Manufacturing at a Brisbane factory in Australia, on Jan 25, 2017. (AAP Image/Glenn Hunt)

  Macrae noted that the discovery meant they could find a way to reproduce the mineral.

  “Lonsdaleite could be used to make tiny, ultra-hard machine parts if we can develop an industrial process that promotes the replacement of pre-shaped graphite parts by lonsdaleite,” he said.

  At present, the current method for producing industrial diamonds involves chemical vapour deposition, in which diamonds are formed onto a substrate from a gas mix at low pressures.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 09/15/2022 – 23:00

• Yuan Fades Despite 'Suddenly' Strong China Macro Data Across The Board
  Yuan Fades Despite ‘Suddenly’ Strong China Macro Data Across The Board

  Just days after Morgan Stanley question whether China could stabilize global growth, tonight’s avalanche of macro data from Beijing suggests the unleashing of various liquidity measures – and the random lifting of some COVID-Zero lockdowns – was just enough to juice the data in August as almost everything beat expectations and improved sequentially…

  • China Industrial Production rose 3.6% YTD YoY in August – IN LINE with expectations of +3.6% and UP from July’s 3.6% MoM rise.

  • China Retail Sales rose 0.5% YTD YoY in August – BEATing expectations of +0.2% and UP from July’s 0.2% MoM drop.

  • China Fixed Asset Investment rose 5.8% YTD YoY in August – BEATing expectations of +5.5% and UP from July’s 5.7% MoM rise.

  • China Surveyed Jobless Rate fell to 5.3 in August – BEATing expectations of 5.4% and BETTER then July’s 5.4% – despite youth unemployment at 18.7%

  However, there was was black eye in the bunch:

  China Property Investment tumbled 7.4% YTD YoY in August – MISSing expectations of -7.0%% and WORSE than July’s 6.4% decline.

  Additionally residential property sales continued their weakness, down 30.3% YTD YoY, suggesting China’s property slump shows little sign of easing…

  

  Digging into the details, Helen Qiao of Bank of America told Bloomberg Television making the point that retail sales has been boosted by auto sales, but broader consumer sentiment remains hostage to the aggressive covid zero strategy.

  Looking through the retail sales break down, autos and petroleum saw double digit gains and there was strength also in food, eating out, tobacco/alcohol, medicine. The weakest sectors were cosmetics, furniture and communication appliances

  This all seems very well timed – the increase in industrial output is particularly interesting given leading indicators like PMIs and exports have been flagging weakening demand.

  China’s offshore yuan was fading fast after the data – and was rather notably weaker than the RMB Fix – breaking significantly weaker above 7/USD. That is the 17th straight day of Yuan fixing stronger than the offshore rate.

  

  Will China intervene to halt the imported inflation? Judging by the fix – and the flood of suddenly positive data – they are trying.

  As Bloomberg’s Enda Curran notes, these numbers will stoke views that the economy has bottomed – but – given the ongoing challenges from extreme weather, the housing data we saw this morning, weakening global demand for China’s exports and of course covid zero, feels like a big call to say things will turn from here.

  Ho Woei Chen, economist with United Overseas Bank Ltd. in Singapore, says:

  “The improvements in data provided some relief but economic challenges remain. The pace of recovery in production, consumption and investment is still in question for the coming months. The offshore yuan trend is also a function of the Fed’s monetary policy. For PBOC, it is expected to maintain an accommodative policy to help the economy recover.”

  Raymond Yeung, chief economist for Greater China at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group, says: 

  “August’s data does not relieve our concern on China’s growth outlook. It does reflect the impact of Chengdu’s lockdown.”

  Furthermore, this is a timely turn for the data given the Party Congress will kick off in four weeks from now and it also runs against the recent narrative that government support isn’t gaining traction.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 09/15/2022 – 22:40

• Macleod: Inflation Is Turning Hyper…
  Macleod: Inflation Is Turning Hyper…

  Authored by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com,

  Money supply took off during covid lockdowns. It is now about to take off again to pay everyone’s energy bills. But that is not all.

  Demands for currency and credit to be conjured out of thin air to pay for everything will be coming thick and fast. Expectations that energy prices, including European electricity, have peaked are naïve. Putin has yet to put the winter and spring screws on Europe and the world fully. It will be surprising if global oil and natural gas prices in Europe are not significantly higher on a twelve-month view. And Europe has messed up its electricity supplies — that is where the energy costs will rise most.

  Bankers are trying to reduce their loan exposure to rising interest rates, undermining GDP. Besides paying for everyone’s energy bills, rescuing troubled banks, collapsing tax revenues, and difficulties in selling government debt on rising yields, governments are expected to apply economic stimulus to support both their economies and financial markets.

  Furthermore, this article points to evidence as to why the expansion of central bank credit has a far greater impact on prices than contracting bank credit. The replacement of commercial bank credit by central bank credit will have a far greater inflationary impact than the deflation from bank credit alone.

  Attempts to rescue the American, European, and Japanese economies by replacing commercial bank credit with central bank credit will probably be the coup de grace for fiat.

  We can begin to anticipate the path to the destruction of purchasing power for all fiat currencies, not just those of Zimbabwe, Turkey, and Venezuela et al. A global hyperinflation is proving impossible to avoid.

  

  First it was covid, now it is energy… 

  For the magic money tree, its exfoliation is just one thing after another…

  Having recognised the impracticality of putting price controls on Russian gas and oil, the EU is turning to protecting all households and businesses from the energy crisis. Even Switzerland, and now the UK are bowing to the inevitable consequences of combining inflationary monetary policies of recent years, environmental wokism, and frankly irresponsible energy policies with the decision to sanction the world’s largest energy exporter.

  There can be little doubt that a common approach to resolving energy problems has been decided upon following informal discussions at a supranational level. After all, forums such as the G7 and G20 are all about agreeing to act together, a united front to prevent markets taking control of events out of government hands. Lines of communication continue between formal meetings. That way, establishment statists believe there is less chance of a currency crisis created by one government pursuing a rogue course.

  The consequence, of course, is that even with successful management, misguided policies get implemented. A group-thinking form of myopia takes over. And while the immediate problem is addressed, the consequences are rarely foreseen.  These subsequent effects are almost certainly going to undermine statist attempts to alleviate the hardship their earlier policies have inflicted on their electors.

  In Britain’s case, it is proposed that electricity and presumably gas bills will be fully funded above £2,500 per household, with support arrangements to be put in place for businesses. But much of France’s nuclear power is shut down — 32 of Électricité de France’s 56 nuclear reactors are out of action, with four showing stress corrosion and small cracks in the cement works and a further 12 reactors suspected of being similarly affected. The other sixteen are shut for routine maintenance. It seems that France expects to import electricity through October to February from European neighbours, including the UK, while the UK expects to import French electricity. 

  How support for businesses will be implemented is unclear; it is an extremely complex issue. But there is little doubt that without this support, the economy will collapse this winter as businesses shut down, unemployment rockets, and the lowest rungs in society, emotively the elderly and struggling single mothers, find it impossible to keep body and soul together. From the government’s point of view, if nothing is done now revenue will collapse, welfare costs escalate, civil disobedience could worsen, and law and order break down. The same problems would arise in the European Union, with some nations facing a greater propensity to riot.

  There is no doubt that in the practical world of modern politics, where everyone’s business is the business of government, there is no alternative to ramping up support for the people and their employers in the times ahead. Either the problem has to be faced now, or the consequences for government finances will have to be faced later. 

  The problem of financing energy subsidies is not yet a public issue. As experience with covid showed, governments were able to ramp up their funding to cover emergencies without much difficulty. This leads to an assumption that governments can simply issue more debt — perhaps £150 billion in the UK’s case but likely to be more, taking the government debt to GDP ratio to over 110%. The impact on indebted EU member states with already far higher debt to GDP ratios is not good either, but what else is to be done?

  Undoubtedly, selling bonds to pay for everyone’s excess energy bills will be problematic. Government funding through covid and its aftermath was against a background of declining interest rates, when banks, insurance companies and pension funds were prepared to buy government bonds. We now face the prospect of rising interest rates, with price inflation suggesting that interest rates have much, much further to rise. Appetite for fixed interest bonds is bound to be substantially diminished. Furthermore, central banks are no longer quantitatively easing, but beginning to tighten. 

  Therefore, the market certainty that comes with central banks underwriting their government bond prices is no longer there. Investors, mostly in the form of pension funds and insurance companies, are bound to take a more cautious view and have little alternative to ducking auctions of government debt.

  Without genuine investment being diverted from the private sector into government bonds, any issue of government debt exceeding redemptions of existing stock becomes inflationary. Central banks are surely aware that to accommodate this new wave of government borrowing, quantitative tightening will have to be abandoned, funding through short-term commercial bank credit will be increasingly relied upon, and bond yields must rise to the point where debt can be got away. As to whether quantitative easing will be reintroduced, that would represent a policy U-turn of great difficulty at a time of rising interest rates and rising consumer prices. 

  Market participants have not yet taken this problem fully inboard, confirmed by complacency over valuations in financial markets. Despite the wake-up call this week when US consumer prices rose ever so slightly more than expected and the Dow fell 1,276 points, investors still hope that inflation is transitory, and that the threat of a deepening recession is a far greater problem, limiting the rise in bond yields. Current macroeconomic theories only allow for one or the other outcome. A contraction of credit, higher prices, and higher interest rates is deemed contradictory to the solution for a recessionary outlook. 

  But rising bond yields in any real magnitude simply destroys value and therefore credit. A shortage of credit ensues, and the scramble for more credit to replace it drives interest rates even higher. It always happens at the onset of a financial crisis, as clearly illustrated by the UK’s secondary banking crisis in 1973. The Bank of England’s rates reluctantly began to rise that April from 9.75% against a deteriorating economic background, reflecting a tightening of credit. Banks exposed to commercial property began to collapse after the BoE’s rate was raised to 12% in October.

  The root of the confusion is essentially ignorance of the relation between the quantity of credit in circulation and the consequences of its contraction. It is this relationship which rules prices, not the supply and demand curves favoured by the neo-Keynesian consensus.

  Economists and the investing establishment prefer to view the expansion of currency and credit in connection with the covid crisis as a one-off event, with economies and government finances reverting to more sustainable paths in due course. Examples of this thinking are shown in both the Congressional Budget Office’s ten-year forecasts, and in those of the UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility. Every time their forecasts are proved incorrect, they simply extend the timeline back to the official inflation target.

  Putting aside the legacy of damages done to businesses and personal finances, it can be claimed that covid is behind us. But to believe that government finances are free to recover over time is ill-founded. 

  Yet more “one-off” inflation waves are to follow

  Though the particulars always differ, once the path of inflationary finance is embarked upon, requirements for more inflationary finance always arise. From covid, we segway to energy and food for the masses. The consequences for the western world’s fiat currencies and financial systems are dire, but that is not the end of demand for yet more inflationary finance. The following competing issues are increasingly certain to arise in the coming months, some of them running concurrently and some yet to materialise:

  • Energy supplies. Having shut down Nord-stream 1, Russia is already tightening energy supplies for Europe and the NATO alliance generally, which will strictly limit their ability to accumulate further fossil energy reserves for the winter. While Europe has made good headway storing gas from other sources recently, depleted reserves will still have to be addressed in the spring. Separately, with a large chunk of France’s nuclear generation currently offline electricity prices are set to soar, irrespective of gas and oil prices. The best that Europe can do is pray for a very mild winter. And while EU nations will be ready to impose windfall taxes on energy suppliers, there will still be enhanced budget deficits to be financed if businesses and consumers are to be compensated.

  • Future energy prices. The decline in oil prices since June will almost certainly be reversed. European governments have already or are about to promise to bail out all their consumers and businesses irrespective of cost. The cost can only be met by limitless currency dilution, difficult to achieve when the entire euro system of the ECB and national central banks itself is in negative equity due to falling bond values. The commitment to subsidise energy costs gives Putin an added weapon: yet higher oil and gas prices will undermine EU governments’ finances even further, bringing extra pressure to bear on politicians leading to a likely breakdown of the NATO alliance. This is Putin’s real objective, and he won’t let up until this is achieved. Until then, for Putin the higher European oil and gas prices go, the better. 

  • The war in Ukraine. Military setbacks for Russia in East Ukraine are likely to intensify retaliatory restrictions on European energy supplies. Grain and fertiliser shortages are not going to be resolved in the foreseeable future, and shipments from Odessa are likely to be stopped. While western press reports suggest that Ukraine is winning back territory, it seems to be making progress in thinly defended areas along a 1000-mile border. In any event, the campaign season on the ground cannot last long before late autumnal rains and snow turn battlefields into muddy quagmires. The war will then turn into a stalemate and armies become entrenched like those of the Somme. There is unlikely to be any economic relief for Russia’s “unfriendlies” from current military successes against Russian troops.

  • Geopolitics. Russia’s geopolitical focus is to create with China a new Asian powerhouse. Oil and gas are being heavily discounted for fellow travellers, giving them an economic advantage over Russia’s “unfriendlies”. Even the Saudis recognise that their future is not with fossil-fuel hating Europeans, but with fellow Asians, Africans, and South Americans such as Brazil. The western powers face a relative economic decline, which is bound to encourage governments in the Asian camp to liquidate their US, UK and EU government bond and currency holdings. With substantial Asian-owned debt and currency balances tending to be liquidated, the negative consequences for western financial markets and their currencies are yet to materialise.

  • Eurozone’s financial fragility. Unless NATO compromises sufficiently (i.e., the Americans withdraw from European affairs and remove their missiles), Europe can expect no help from Russia. Germany’s economy is already verging on collapse. It is the EU’s powerhouse: with Germany in steep decline, all sorts of issues are raised — the future of the banks, the future of the TARGET2 euro settlement system, the future of the euro itself. The ECB and the entire euro system can only respond by supplying unlimited quantities of inflationary finance to preserve the euro system: that is more important to the ECB than preserving value for the euro on the foreign exchanges.

  • Rising interest rates. Interest rates are now rising, driven not by central banks, which are determined to resist the trend, but by contracting credit. Falling purchasing powers for the dollar and the other major western currencies are just beginning to accelerate, ensuring a buyers’ strike in bond markets and significantly higher yields. Initially, bank lending margins may benefit, but non-performing loans will increase rapidly. The €9 trillion Eurozone repo market will begin to unwind, creating a liquidity crisis for banks which depend upon it to maintain their balance sheet integrity. Central banks will be called upon to ensure there are no bank failures in this challenging operational environment.

  • Bank credit downturn. We face a cyclical downturn in commercial bank credit. The evidence that it has started is mounting. When bank lending in an economy shrinks, it always leads to a financial and economic crisis, proportional to the expansion that preceded it. It will be a miracle if this downturn does not lead to a collapse of one or more of the major banks, with a domino effect almost certain to follow. The most leveraged banks are in the Eurozone, which faces the added problems of a belligerent Russia on its eastern front, and in Japan. These banks may have to be bailed leading to a further expansion of central bank currency and the introduction of bank lending guarantees to keep zombie corporations out of bankruptcy, this time under the combined direction of both central banks and their governments.

  • Falling financial asset values. Rising interest rates and bond yields will undermine all financial asset values. Not only will this damage economic confidence, but banks will be forced to liquidate financial assets held as collateral against loans. This will magnify pressure on banks to reduce their balance sheet totals while they can, and financial market values will fall more heavily in consequence, undermining economic confidence. Undoubtedly, vested interests will fight for renewed inflationary policies and interest rate suppression in a desire to maintain asset values, particularly in the US which has become over-dependent on investor confidence in financial markets.

  • The slump in GDP. Because the transactions that make up GDP are entirely financed by bank credit, bank credit contraction will lead to a slump in nominal GDP. Driven by interventionist economic policies, in their desperation governments are sure to try to stimulate recovery by increasing their spending at a time of declining tax revenues. The cost of the extra debt incurred will soar, not just due to the quantities involved, but because higher interest rates and auction failures will be the backdrop to what amounts to a global debt trap from which it is impossible to escape.

  To summarise so far; from covid being a one-off economic crisis requiring enhanced deficit spending by governments, we now see a second one-off crisis centred on subsidising energy and food. This will be followed by further and increasing demands for inflationary funding, as briefly enumerated in the bullet points above. Attempts to prevent western economies contracting, buyers strikes in bond markets, along with collapsing bank credit will probably be the coup de grace for fiat currencies.

  How currency debasement as opposed to contracting bank credit leads to a final collapse of fiat currency purchasing power must be our next topic.

  The relative consequences of currency and credit inflation

  There has been little or no theoretical analysis done of the different effects on prices from an increased quantity of bank credit, and that of currency. The former is essentially cyclical, while in fiat currency regimes, the increase in the quantity of currency is continual with a strong tendency to accelerate. 

  Observation of the current situation, informed by the consequences of a rising interest rate outlook, together with statistical evidence from the history of bank credit cycles, point to a periodic and severe contraction in bank credit which is only now becoming evident. Other things being equal, contracting bank credit is likely to apply downward pressure on prices. We can expect contracting bank credit to be replaced by central bank credit expansion. Because they will work in opposition, we need to assess how important the deflationary pressure is likely to be from the bank credit cycle relative to inflationary pressures from increasing quantities of central bank derived credit, issued to finance rising government deficits.

  First, we must isolate the effect on prices from variations of commercial bank credit. Under Britain’s gold coin standard which ran from 1817 to 1914, the cycle of bank credit expansion and contraction is evidenced in the effect on the inflation rate of wholesale prices, as shown in Figure 1.

  

  The cycle’s periodicity was remarkably constant, averaging a ten-year span, a constancy which remains evident to this day. The pecked line marks the date the Bank of England joined the commercial bank clearing system, the relevance of which is discussed below. Wholesale prices are a more direct reflection of cycles of bank credit than consumer prices which during those times of very little consumer credit were less affected by cycles of bank lending. Furthermore, statistics representing the general level of consumer prices were not widely available before the 1930s, and consumer price statistics before the First World War are just guesswork.

  The swings between credit expansion and contraction affected wholesale prices in accordance with David Ricardo’s quantity theory of money, upon which modern monetary theory is based. That is to say, an increase in bank credit leads to higher prices, and a contraction to lower prices. The validity of Ricardo’s quantity theory was due to an underlying stability provided to sterling by the gold coin exchange standard introduced in 1817. It allows us to link changes in the level of prices with changes in the level of bank credit. Furthermore, a little knowledge of the history of banking is required to understand why the inflationary/deflationary swings diminished after 1864.

  Before 1844, banking combined dealing with credit and the issue of bank notes before the note issue monopoly was given to the Bank of England by virtue of the 1844 Bank Charter Act. Banknotes in circulation reflected a higher counterparty risk before 1844, which undoubtedly contributed to less price stability than after the Act, when bank notes became a direct liability of the Bank of England.

  In 1864, the Bank of England was admitted to the clearing system set up by the commercial banks, and the use of bank notes and coin in the clearing system ceased entirely. Prior to that date, differences between the commercial banks and the Bank were settled in Bank of England notes, requiring every bank to keep substantial quantities of notes on hand. That the effect of swings in bank credit on the inflation rate of wholesale prices diminished was attributable to improvements in the overall banking system, notably the evolution of centralised clearing of credit imbalances. 

  We can therefore link the price effect of cycles of bank credit to the efficiency of bank credit clearing systems, particularly after 1864. With the stability provided by the gold coin exchange standard, interest rates measured by undated government debt declined from about 5% in 1815 (where it was restricted from going no higher by law until 1833) to under 3% in 1880. The improvement in the efficiency of credit creation and distribution contributed to the lowering of this measure of interest over time.

  It is also understood from Austrian business cycle theory that rises and falls in bank credit were directly linked to economic booms and slumps. These did not diminish after the Bank Charter Act, as might be inferred from the lower wholesale price volatility that followed it, particularly following 1864. Far from it: Overend Gurney collapsed in 1866, and the Barings crisis was in 1890. Rather than being economic in nature, credit crises became more financial.

  Following the Panic of 1873, the long depression led to a worldwide decline in commodity prices that lasted for fifteen years. Following the recovery from the Overend Gurney crisis, in Britain it was due to the unwinding of excessive speculation financed by bank credit expansion — the bust phase of the classic bank credit cycle. But Britain’s economy was less affected than those of other countries, and her economy merely stagnated, with heavy industries principally affected. While British wholesale prices declined by about 15% by 1895, the slump elsewhere was worse.

  But the lesson learned is that the inflationary consequences of bank credit are to some extent tied to the efficiency of the banking system. And with modern technology and money markets, the price effect of the credit cycle on its own is less significant relative to other factors. 

  The consequences of fiat replacing a gold standard

  It will also be noted from Figure 1, that the long-term average level of wholesale prices remained remarkably constant despite all the cyclical swings of inflation and deflation. This was due to the gold coin standard enacted in 1817, whereby the money standard was set by law to be the gold sovereign, to be freely available in exchange for bank notes and bank credit. All further issues of banknotes by the Bank of England were required to be backed by gold in the 1844 Bank Charter Act. And after the Bank of England joined the clearing system, wholesale prices showed a remarkable degree of stability, despite the economic consequences of the cycle of bank credit. 

  We have noted how changes in the level of bank credit affect wholesale prices; now we must note the stabilising effect of the gold coin exchange standard.

  The transacting population knew that they could access real money, that is gold, in exchange for credit at any time. So long as this was the case, the ratio of personal liquidity to goods purchased remained stable. To understand why the ratio matters, imagine a situation where the general population decides for one reason or another to withhold some of their spending and retain higher balances of credit to hand in the form of banknotes and bank deposits. The general level of prices must fall. Conversely, if the general public collectively decides to reduce the level of credit to hand in favour of purchases, the prices of goods will rise.

  The point about a gold standard is not that gold circulates as a medium of exchange: far from it, it is hoarded in greater or lesser quantities. It is almost never spent. Under an effective standard, gold being freely convertible on demand from forms of credit at a fixed rate is what mattered. The gold coin exchange standard imparted an underlying stability to the purchasing power of bank notes and bank deposit credit, which they would not otherwise enjoy.

  The relationship between gold and forms of credit as circulating media is thus clarified. We must now turn to the situation of fiat currencies, where gold is not available in exchange for credit on demand. Currency and credit loses its anchor, and we must anticipate human action in these circumstances. We are no longer simply addressing fluctuating levels of bank credit but changing perceptions of the purchasing power of banknotes issued by central banks as well. And it should be noted that all instances of collapses in the purchasing power of media of exchange have been the outcome of the public rejecting fiat currencies by minimising their exposure to them.

  Therefore, we can easily understand the consequences of the general public rejecting a currency entirely, preferring to hold goods instead of credit, needed or not. The currency’s purchasing power diminishes towards nothing, a situation demonstrated in multiple currencies today which lack their public’s credibility. Zimbabwe, Cuba, Lebanon, Turkey, Myanmar, Venezuela etc. The list is becoming extensive.

  It has nothing to do directly with changes in the quantities of currency and credit, which can vary independently from a fiat currency’s purchasing power. We have seen that expanding and contracting bank credit does have a price effect, but on its own it corrects back to a norm. But if that norm is not gold but a fiat currency, we can expect a different outcome.

  Understanding this is of fundamental importance, particularly in the situation we face today when we can expect commercial bank credit, contracting GDP, to be replaced with central bank credit. So, why is bank credit set to implode, taking GDP with it?

  Commercial banks around the world are as highly leveraged in their ratios of balance sheet assets to equity as they have ever been. While regulators concentrate on balance sheet liquidity, bank directors are responsible to their shareholders. In an environment of high consumer inflation, and therefore rising interest rates, they know that a large proportion of their loans will go sour. And where they have loaned credit for financial activities and speculation, the value of collateral against those loans is bound to fall as well. There can be no doubt that to protect their shareholders, bankers will reduce their loan books to private sector businesses as much as possible and restrict their lending to state actors to short maturities, such as treasury bills.

  Almost every transaction recorded in nominal GDP is paid for by deposit transfers between bank accounts. The level of bank deposits is the counterpart of bank lending. Bank lending is just beginning to contract, evidenced by the expansion of broad money supply turning down. So will GDP.

  Commentators almost always miss the importance of the currency side of transactions, talking instead of recession as if it were a matter of consumers or businesses driving the fall in economic activity. This is a grievous error. It is banks withdrawing credit from the economy which drives it all, and the level of nominal GDP is a direct reflection of bank credit being used for qualifying transactions. Today, commercial banks around the world are on the verge of withdrawing more credit from economic activity than since the early 1930s.

  We know from our analysis of post-1864 Britain to expect a negative price effect from bank credit contraction, but at that time the price effect of contracting bank credit was not a big deal for wholesale prices, having far greater consequences for speculative activity in financial markets. Today, banks seem to be slow to withdraw consumer credit, perhaps under the baleful influence of their central bank. Instead, they are withdrawing credit from businesses, particularly the small and medium size enterprises that make up a Pareto 80% of any economy. And state support for businesses facing higher energy costs will not change this at all. On its own, the contraction of bank credit seems unlikely to have a significant negative effect on prices (i.e., lead to their decline), since it is leading more to the restriction of the supply side of the economy than consumption.

  Under current economic and monetary policies, falling GDP, due to contracting bank credit will be replaced by central bank currency in one form or another. From their magic money trees, central banks must procure the currency and credit for their governments to inject into their economies. We will see less destabilising commercial bank credit with respect to prices being replaced by more destabilising central bank credit, particularly when the public sees no end to its expansion.

  It is central bank issued credit, not that emanating from commercial banks, which is evaluated by the public. And when the public adopts a general view that it should be reduced to as little as possible by purchasing goods simply to be rid of it, then price rises accelerate, and its purchasing power collapses, irrespective of changes in the quantity in circulation.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 09/15/2022 – 22:20

• The Last Development Parcel In The Country's Wealthiest Zip Code Just Sold For More Than $100 Million
  The Last Development Parcel In The Country’s Wealthiest Zip Code Just Sold For More Than $100 Million

  While the poors have been arguing about abortion and inflation back on the mainland, the richest people in the nation have been quietly snatching up all of the best real estate. 

  Such was the case this week when Related Group, a developer led by billionaire Jorge Perez, bought the last development parcel available on Miami Beach’s ritzy Fisher Island, according to Bloomberg. 

  The address, 6 Fisher Island Drive, was sold for more than $100 million to buyers that included Related, Israeli billionaire Teddy Sagi, BH Group and Wanxiang America RE Group, the report says. 

  The plan is to build about 50 condos on the site with penthouses priced at more than $60 million and “normal” units priced at about $30 million. The condos will be between 3,800 sq. feet and up to more than 12,000 sq. feet. 

  Perez told Bloomberg this week: “This is the last opportunity for someone to buy a new development, pre-construction in Fisher Island. To be able to develop on Fisher Island is really a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.”

  

  And he made it no secret about who he is eventually looking to sell to: “An executive for Citadel is one of our perfect buyers, where if he wanted to, he could get picked up by boat right from the property and take it across the bay to Brickell. That is an amenity and perk, where we’re the only project that will offer that.”

  Off the coast of Florida, Fisher Island is described as “an ultra-exclusive private island” and “the wealthiest zip code in the United States”. 

  The island is “accessible only by private yacht or 7-and-a-half-minute auto-ferry from Miami Beach” and “spans 216 private acres of tropical resort-style living, located within minutes from the cultural enticements of Miami.”

  The island’s Fisher Island Club provides access to the oceanfront Beach Club, Vanderbilt Mansion, Spa Internazionale, a par-35 championship nine-hole golf course, state-of-the-art Racquet Club, and two private deep-water marinas, among other amenities.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 09/15/2022 – 22:00

• Woke Twilio CEO Conducts "Anti-Racist" Mass Layoff
  Woke Twilio CEO Conducts “Anti-Racist” Mass Layoff

  Yesterday saw San Francisco-based tech firm Twilio join the growing ranks of companies that are laying off employees as post-pandemic growth reality falls short of pandemic-pumping hype.

  

  Source

  Twilio CEO Jeff Lawson announced plans to cut around 11% of the company’s workforce, after admitting that the company had grown too fast:

  “Twilio has grown at an astonishing rate over the past couple years. It was too fast, and without enough focus on our most important company priorities. I take responsibility for those decisions, as well as the difficult decision to do this layoff.”

  But this announcement was different.

  

  For the first time we can remember, the CEO appeared to make the case that race was involved in the decision-making process around who lost their jobs…

  “Layoffs like this can have a more pronounced impact on marginalized communities,” Lawson wrote in a memo to employees.

  “So we were particularly focused on ensuring our layoffs – while a business necessity today – were carried out through an Anti-Racist/Anti-Oppression lens.”

  Forgive us for our obvious bias, but doesn’t that statement infer that if they hadn’t considered race then the layoffs would have been ‘racist’?

  Of course, the liberal media rose up as one to defend Lawson’s comments. Fortune reports, that two sources at Twilio told them the anti-racist effort was not controversial inside the company.

  “No one at Twilio has made any mention of it,” one of the sources said.

  “Being an anti racist company is part of our core values.”

  The employees dismissed claims of “race-based” job cuts.

  “I’m sure right wingers think this means firing only white people,” one of the employees said, noting that it appeared anecdotally that the laid off employees were “an equal mix” of women, men, and underrepresented minorities.

  Well how do they explain his comments then… since Lawson did not provide any details about how the company would ensure that the layoffs did not cut deeper into certain groups of its 7,800 worldwide employees

  Are we really at that point?

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 09/15/2022 – 21:44

• Doug Casey On Class Warfare, 'Eat The Rich' Sentiment, & What Happens Next
  Doug Casey On Class Warfare, ‘Eat The Rich’ Sentiment, & What Happens Next

  Via InternationalMan.com,

  International Man: Politicians looking for ways to finance their extravagant spending increasingly complain that the wealthy aren’t paying their “fair share.”

  It’s a trend in motion that is accelerating. This rising anti-wealth sentiment seems to be taking the US into dangerous territory.

  Our friend Rick Rule once said, “Eat the rich? Prepare to starve.”

  What is your take?

  

  Doug Casey: Once upon a time, government apologists liked to say that the rich had to be taxed in order to help the poor. That’s no longer the case. Nobody in America is starving. Even poor people have flat-screen TVs, air conditioning, and refrigerators. The poor live better than medieval royalty.

  What’s going on is the institutionalization of envy, a terrible vice. It’s different from jealousy.

  Jealousy says, “You have something that I want. I want one too. Give it to me.”

  Envy says, “You have something that I want. If I can’t have it, I’ll destroy it, so you can’t have it either.” Envy is the moral flaw that underlies all socialist economic theories. Socialist feelings and morality underly the economic lies, race hatred, class hatred, sex antagonism, and political polarization tearing the US and the West apart. Envy and socialism have become secular religions. The country has been divided into two different and mutually antagonistic worldviews.

  It’s a question of what’s right and wrong, what’s good and evil. It’s not a question of economics, about what’s more productive. This is a much more serious division. It amounts to a religious war between the Left, who want to overthrow and transform society, and the Right, who want to more-or-less maintain traditional values, but lack any real ideology.

  The Left is proposing all manner of outrageous, destructive, and genuinely stupid ideas. Free stuff for everybody. Not just food, shelter, schooling, and medical care provided at the expense of producers—which they’ve basically achieved. But now a guaranteed annual income. Everybody is supposed to get a thousand dollars a month, according to the silly twit and wannabe US president Andrew Yang. They won’t have to do anything, just exist, presumably hanging out at Starbucks playing with their iPhones all day. They’ll genuinely be what Yuval Noah Harari, the World Economic Forum’s mincing court intellectual, has called a permanent class of useless eaters.

  At some point, however, people who work, create, produce, and believe in traditional values will react. Maybe they’ll explode in a violent counter-revolution. Maybe they’ll quietly go on strike, as did Ayn Rand’s heroes in “Atlas Shrugged.” Or maybe they’ll roll over and be transformed into serfs—which is what The Elite would prefer and expect. But something wicked this way comes.

  International Man: What do you make of the hiring of 87,000 new IRS agents in the context of this trend?

  Doug Casey: Those people aren’t being recruited just to collect taxes, although that’s absolutely one of the things that they will do. They will amount to a national police force, one that has a different mandate than the FBI, the ATF, the DEA, or other Praetorian agencies. The tax authorities have a right to look at any economic activity everywhere and anywhere.

  As a moral issue, they’ll try to turn nonpayment of tax on the part of producers into a crime against society. I shudder to think of the type of amoral creatures being recruited—at fat salaries and with immense powers—to investigate the lives of their countrymen. They’ll be exactly analogous to Germany’s Gestapo or Stasi.

  These new IRS agents will have little to do with the poor. The poor are increasingly irrelevant, except for their votes. As it’s been throughout history, the uneducated lower classes basically do hand-to-mouth labor. They’re mainly interested in bread and circuses, and that’s what they’ll get. Their numbers are growing in this country for the first time.

  The new IRS agents won’t have much to do with the elite either; they can afford tax lawyers and accountants to fend them off. They’ll take a few casualties for show and the sake of “fairness,” but the elite are the main beneficiaries of the hundreds of billions of dollars that the government is pouring on society. This is all going to be paid for by the middle class, the people who actually produce and save.

  These new IRS agents are a direct attack on the middle class. The elite hate the middle class and what they stand for—independence, stability, and traditional values. The fact that they’re doubling the size of the tax police is truly extraordinary. As the economy continues to decline, you can expect class warfare—along with race and sex warfare—to increase.

  As I explained last week, this is an important part of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Hundreds of billions of dollars that the government will spend through their Inflation Reduction Act will be financed—intentionally—by the creation of new dollars.

  The reason why they say it’s “inflation reduction” is because the same number of dollars will theoretically be taken out of society through taxes. The new dollars will be placed with the people and companies the government likes. They say it won’t be inflationary because the same number of dollars will be taken out of the economy from people and companies that they don’t approve of. So, theoretically, the net number of dollars in society will stay the same, and the general price level will stay the same because the money supply will stay the same.

  That’s their economic argument. But the moral argument is far more important. MMT allocates hundreds of billions to those the Left approves of and will take that much away from the middle class through taxes. It’s diabolically clever. As I said, this amounts to a religious war because the people behind MMT are actually evil.

  Unfortunately, “evil” is a word which has been discredited; people no longer take it seriously. It’s been overused by emotional and often corrupt Bible thumpers, hell, and brimstone preachers. But evil really does exist. Evil is the intentional act of destroying something good.

  International Man: With financial markets falling and the US dollar’s purchasing power plummeting, many people are feeling poorer and are looking for someone to blame.

  What is your view on this dynamic and how it could affect the political situation?

  Doug Casey: The speech Biden gave on September 1 was intended to be shocking and disturbing. It mimicked a scene out of V for Vendetta or 1984. They went out of their way to have Biden deliver it in Philadelphia, where the US was founded, and use red lighting against a dark background to fan emotions. These people are serious. Biden’s words were full of hate and venom, calling out half the country as the enemy—the speech was unprecedented. It was a warning and an overt threat.

  Look at the scene. The red background was over the top. Placing a couple of Marines in the background said, “I have power, and I’ll use it against the enemy.” Theatrics such as these are unprecedented. It amounted to a declaration of civil war. It was followed up by the outrageous raid on Trump’s home and the FBI perp-walking about 50 of his prominent supporters, with dawn raids, in subsequent days.

  These people truly want to overturn society. They’re actually a reincarnation of the Jacobins and could turn out to be just as violent and dangerous.

  They’re working to create an active environment of class warfare in the US. They’ve succeeded in fomenting race hatred, where people identify not as human beings but as people of color and anti-white. And sex warfare, wherein people are no longer either men or women—albeit a few with aberrations of varying degree—but as one or more of 50 or 60 genders.

  These people hate the middle class, with their traditional cultural and religious values. This is why Trump is so popular and why they identify with him. It’s not because many of his ideas are particularly good; he’s essentially a populist with no philosophical center.

  The elite and wannabe elitists hate Trump because he’s a cultural traditionalist. These people want to overthrow traditional culture itself and eliminate the middle class. In the ideal world of the WEF types, the vast majority of people, the deplorables, would be serfs and the kulaks serving the nomenklatura ruling on the top, assisted by their apparatchiki.

  I know it sounds outrageous, but that’s what’s on their minds. We’ve seen this before in history when Leftist intellectuals get control of real power, the apparatus of the State. They truly want to overturn the very basis of civilization. The Jacobins in revolutionary France, the Bolsheviks in Russia, the Nazis in Germany, the Maoists during China’s Great Cultural Revolution, and the Pol Pot regime in Cambodia. It can happen anywhere when conditions are right. It seems to be happening now in the US and other Western countries.

  Let’s hope it blows over. But don’t plan your life around that…

  International Man: Historically, the size and power of the middle class made the US different from other countries.

  But now, the US middle class is shrinking and feeling squeezed.

  Where is this trend going, and what can the average middle-class person do about it?

  Doug Casey: What was the average man supposed to do when the Jacobins brought out the guillotines in France in 1793? What should the average middle-class person have done in Russia in 1917? What should the average middle-class person have done in Germany in 1933?

  There’s not much you can do when actual forces of evil are in control. There’s very little that you can do except get out of Dodge.

  Here in the US, we still have a large middle class. Many are fat, dumb, indoctrinated, or addicted to Prozac and Zoloft. But millions of others are, to coin a phrase, mad as hell and aren’t going to take it anymore. The things we’ve been talking about could turn into a genuine civil war.

  What to do? Diversify your political jurisdictions. Don’t roll over like a whipped dog; speak up, and resist. But the most important thing you can do personally is become as rich as possible while maintaining your ethics. Being rich can help you to insulate yourself from evil and stupidity.

  *  *  *

  If you want to navigate the complicated economic and political situation that is unfolding, then you need to see this newly released video from Doug Casey and his team. In it, Doug reveals what you need to know, and how these dangerous times could impact your wealth. Click here to watch it now.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 09/15/2022 – 21:40

• Adderall Shortage Worsens As People Without Drug "Not Able To Focus", May Impact Productivity
  Adderall Shortage Worsens As People Without Drug “Not Able To Focus”, May Impact Productivity

  Adderal supplies in the US are dwindling as pharmacies and patients report shortages. The crux of the problem appears to be a major supplier of the drug for attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder has run into supply chain issues. Patients who find themselves without their medication might experience “withdraw” or even a “crash” that could impact productivity at work. 

  The supply crunch first hit our radar last month when the National Community Pharmacists Association found hundreds of pharmacies across the US had trouble purchasing Adderall and generic versions of the brand in late July. 

  Bloomberg spoke with a dozen patients in California, Indiana, and Michigan who were told by their local pharmacists at CVS Health Corp. or Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. about a worsening drug shortage. 

  “In some cases, patients were told they might have to wait more than a week to get their medication, which is supposed to be taken every day,” Bloomberg noted. 

  Walgreens spokesperson Rebekah Pajak acknowledged that “supply chain challenges” persist with the drug. She said instant-release and extended-release Adderall are the ones in the shortest supply. Meanwhile, CVS spokesperson Matthew Blanchette said Adderall prescriptions at the company’s pharmacies can be filled “in most cases.” 

  

  The shortage began at Teva Pharmaceuticals, the US’ largest branded and generic Adderall supplier. Blomberg noted the Israeli multinational pharmaceutical company experienced “labor shortages” that led to the limited supply of brand-name and generic instant-release Adderall. Then three other companies Amneal Pharmaceuticals Inc., Rhodes Pharmaceuticals LP, a subsidiary of Purdue Pharma LP, and Novartis AG’s Sandoz unit, all were hit with a surge in orders for generic extended-release Adderall that is now on “back order.” 

  What appears to have happened in the world of pharmaceuticals is that when one drug manufacturer has a problem, it quickly has a ripple effect across the industry. 

  The shortage comes as amphetamine sales are at record highs, driven by increased ADHD diagnoses. During the virus pandemic, the federal government eased rules requiring patients to see a doctor in-person before the controlled substance was prescribed which is one of the contributing factors to over-prescription. 

  

  For those who miss their daily dosage because of the shortage, it’s entirely possible to experience symptoms of Adderall withdrawal. Some describe it as a “crash” that can leave people drowsy for hours, if not days, and include symptoms of mental and physical exhaustion and feelings of depression. 

  Anthony Anderson, a 34-year-old special education teacher at a Michigan high school, said he has been without his Adderall since Sept. 6. He’s been taking the medicine for 15 years to treat his ADHD, and without it, he says it’s incredibly difficult to concentrate, which makes it challenging for him to do this job. Sometimes, he forgets what he is talking about mid-sentence.

  Anderson was recently talking with a student about a suicide at the school, and at a time when he was supposed to be helping the grieving student, he just couldn’t pay attention. 

  “I even spaced out when I’m trying to have a serious conversation with this girl to console her, but I spaced out because I’m not able to focus,” he said. “This is a huge issue for me.” -Bloomberg 

  We would love to see the productivity metrics of performance-based companies over the next several months to see how an Adderall shortage impacted productivity. Then again, Wall Street has the luxury of another stimulant if an Adderall shortage affects Manhattan pharmacies; that is cocaine. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 09/15/2022 – 21:20

• Intolerance – Remain Silent Or Be Branded An Extremist
  Intolerance – Remain Silent Or Be Branded An Extremist

  Authored by Bruce Wilds via Advancing Time blog,

  It appears we are rapidly approaching or have reached the place where we must remain silent or be branded an extremist. There is a growing trend of intolerance. In such an environment it is little wonder that many people have become less vocal and afraid to speak their mind. The source of this is rooted in a blatant disregard for the opinions of others by both those on the left and the right. Democracy as a form of government is far from perfect. Its greatest weakness is rooted in the ability of a small vocal group to force its opinions on others. Sadly, this is not something that is going to rapidly go away.

  

  In a recent speech akin to something you might have witnessed in Germany or Italy before World War II President Biden demonized what he called MAGA Republicans. Biden labeled this group of Americans as dangerous extremists. The message was clear, anyone that expressed the views bantered about by former President Trump could be marked as an extremist. Those that do speak out under such a political framework are now part of a group that law enforcement officials target and might be inclined to place under tighter scrutiny or surveillance. 

  This growing fear of speaking out is not limited to America, we are seeing it in countries that claim to be free across the world. The tech giants and governments have been throwing fuel on the fire by adding to the feeling retaliation is a fair response to those we disagree with speaking their mind. The tech giants’ effort to closely watch, silence, and censor those not marching in line with their desired narrative is a dagger in the heart of free speech. This effort is apparent when we hear about small fringe groups outside mainstream society threatening to block highways, shut down ports, and occupy state capitols if things fail to go their way. It even extends to harassing elected officials, we are hearing more threats from groups vowing to hound and badger members of Congress or the judicial system at their homes.

  

  Governments Are Adding To The Fear

  This started several years ago and ramped up when the term “politically correct” moved front and center. In the minds of some individuals if you say anything that they consider “incorrect” it justifies a harsh response. It has now extended to declaring saying something that could hurt the feeling of some individual or group could be considered “hate speech.” As a result of this growing intolerance, people feel compelled to deny their opinions and remain silent.

  The United Nations has weighed in on this subject since hate speech incites violence and undermines social cohesion and tolerance. It claims such speech is nothing new, however, its scale and impact are nowadays amplified by new technologies of communication. The impact of hate speech cuts across numerous existing United Nations areas of focus, from human rights protection, preventing atrocity crimes, sustaining peace, promoting gender equality, and supporting children and youth. The problem here is when hate speech is allowed to be defined by the ears of the beholder. 

  Forcing Agreement Can Be Ugly

  A sign of growing intolerance is seen in the mass arrest of nonviolent protesters by governments. It is important we remember the cornerstones of democracy are the  freedom of assembly and the right to speak freely. When these are trampled upon for any reason, the system is in danger of being cast aside.

  

  This article is about the ability of a vocal minority to make people so uncomfortable they become silent. It is about how we should be appalled by those that justify violence, aggression, and force towards those that simply disagree with them. It is about how the threat you may be demonized if you say what you feel tends to breed silence. Watching this unfold is leaving a sickening feeling in those valuing free speech.

  We should be alarmed by a survey taken by Cato Institute/YouGov that found most Americans say “the political climate these days prevents them from saying things they believe because others might find them offensive”. The survey indicated that 52% of Democrats, 59% of independents, and 77% of Republicans now say they have political opinions they are afraid to share. Most people do not enjoy confrontations or being harassed and as a result, are self-censoring themselves. With the free exchange of opinions and ideas being the foundation of a free and healthy democracy the sign public discourse is being destroyed does not bode well for our continued freedom.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 09/15/2022 – 21:00

• Inflation Has Couples Who Grocery Shop Together Arguing Over Coke Zero, Kit Kat Bars And Pine Nuts
  Inflation Has Couples Who Grocery Shop Together Arguing Over Coke Zero, Kit Kat Bars And Pine Nuts

  We’re sure that some in the Biden administration would like to have you believe that the effects of rising prices across the country have been minimal, and have had a small effect on middle and lower class families.

  However, in actuality, inflation and the budgetary issues it is causing in U.S. households, is resulting in “infighting” amongst families, according to the Wall Street Journal.

  35 year old Leibel Sternbach, a financial adviser, told the Journal: “If I buy more of my milk before the one in the fridge is empty, there’s going to be hell to pay.” He said his wife double checks the fridge after every shopping trip and tells him of all the things he didn’t need to buy.

  Ah, the joys of marriage…

  The couple spends about $350 per week in groceries – a bill that is up from $220 a year prior. They are cutting back on items like pre-cut vegetables and oven ready meals to try and cut additional costs from their bill. 

  The couple has given up on their favorite discretionary snacks, which for the patriarch is babka, and the matriarch is Kit Kat candy bars. 

  

  Arne Boudewyn, head of family wealth and culture services at Wells Fargo, told the Journal that similar discussions are happening in households across the country: “You don’t want to have these conversations in the grocery store aisle.”

  39 year old Ruth Abolofia has seen her grocery bill rise to $1,000 per month from less than $900 per month a year ago. Her and her husband recently clashed over six $3 pints of blueberries that she bought. 

  The couple has cut back on the number of times they dine out to try and save money. “We’re trying to take a more collaborative approach,” she said. 

  42 year old Dan Wyckoff spars with his wife 43 year old Kristin Wyckoff about “how sugary baked goods make their way into the family’s pantry under the guise of breakfast food” before his wife reminds him that the food is for their four children. They spend about $750 a month on groceries, up from $650 a month a year ago. 

  “They often seem more like hobbits than humans,” Dan said of his children. Meanwhile, he has given up on one of his favorite products, Coke Zero, switching to a 12 pack every other week instead of one per week. 

  Another couple, the Sturgeon family, said their grocery bill is up to $767 per month, up about 20% from a year ago. Their arguments have come over tree nuts, which cost $2.50 an ounce. 

  “Don’t get me wrong, a dash of pine nuts can really elevate a salad. But $2.50 for an ounce of tree nuts starts to get a little ridiculous,” Scott Sturgeon said. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 09/15/2022 – 20:40

• Rickards: Forecasting The Midterm Elections
  Rickards: Forecasting The Midterm Elections

  Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

  There are 435 seats in the House of Representatives (not counting nonvoting seats for D.C. and some U.S. possessions) and all of them are up for election in November. Right now, the Democrats control the House with 219 Democrats versus 211 Republicans (there are five vacancies).

  It takes 218 votes to control the House. This means if the Republicans hold the seats they have and pick up just seven seats from Democrats, they will control the House.

  

  Will this happen? The 2022 election cycle is more challenging to predict than usual because it’s the first election since the 2020 Census that the House map had redrawn to reflect population gain or loss on a state-by-state basis.

  Texas gained two House seats, while Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon gained one each. The losers were California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia, which lost one seat each.

  The new district maps favor Republicans on the whole. Another factor favoring the Republicans is that voters often turn back to the party opposing the incumbent president, either out of dissatisfaction with their presidential choice or simply to balance the scales in ways that keep any one party from becoming too powerful.

  The average loss for the president’s party in a first-term midterm since 1982 was 30 seats. If that were the only information I had, my forecast would be that the Republicans would gain 30 seats this November. That would put the House at 241 Republicans and 189 Democrats, a solid 47-seat majority.

  Interestingly, a RealClearPolitics forecast based on the average of numerous polls has a forecast of 219 Republicans and 182 Democrats, with 34 seats in the too-close-to-call category.

  If those toss-ups were decided in the same ratio as the likely winners (55% Republican to 45% Democrat), that would sort the undecided into 19 Republicans and 15 Democrats. That would produce a final House of 238 Republicans and 197 Democrats, almost exactly the result that the historical track record predicts.

  But can we go beyond statistics and polls to discern idiosyncratic factors that could push the results away from the central tendency? There are two.

  The first is the trend of Hispanics and African-Americans toward Republicans and away from Democrats.

  The Hispanic vote has historically been around 70% for Democrats, but recent polls show the Republicans may capture more than 50% of the Hispanic vote this time because Hispanics are trending conservative and are culturally anti-abortion, anti-crime and in favor of controlling the border.

  Hispanics make up about 20% of the total population. If you shift 20% of voters by 20% in preference, that yields a 4% gain for Republicans in the overall vote. With many districts split close to 50/50, a four-point pickup is huge. We’ve already seen this dynamic with Republican gains in seats on the Texas/Mexican border that were solidly Democratic until this year.

  The same trend is clear in the African-American community. They are 12% of the electorate and vote about 90% Democrat. However, recent voting results and polls show that the African-American vote could go as much as 20% for Republicans this time.

  A 10% gain in a 12% community adds another 1.2% to the Republican column. Crime and the economy are the big issues for African-Americans. Combined with the Hispanic shift, this could put over five percentage points in the Republican column, enough to tip a lot of close races to Republicans.

  The second trend that could push the results away from statistical tendencies is Biden’s very low approval ratings. Right now, Biden’s approval rating is 41.8% based on the average of 11 major polls. However, the polls contained in the average include some conducted as long ago as Aug. 15 (Marist) or Aug. 12 (NBC News) when Biden was riding high based on some legislative accomplishments.

  The more recent polls show Biden at 38% approval (Reuters, Aug, 30). So it is likely that Biden is in a real-time downtrend back toward the 39% level he held most of the summer.

  Based on these idiosyncratic variables, it seems reasonable to push the expectation of 241 Republicans and 189 Democrats to an adjusted result of 245 Republicans to 185 Democrats, a 34-seat gain for Republicans, leading to a 60-seat Republican majority.

  In summary, my forecast for the 2022 midterm House result as of now is: Republicans – 245 seats, Democrats – 190 seats.

  Forecasting the outcome in the Senate is both easier and harder than forecasting the House. It’s easier because there are fewer races and even fewer contests that are genuinely competitive. It’s harder because the smaller sample size makes it more difficult to use statistical methods. We have to go state by state and candidate by candidate to produce an accurate forecast.

  The Senate has 100 members, two from each state. The current split is 50 Democrats/independents and 50 Republicans. Under the Constitution, the president of the Senate, Kamala Harris (the vice president), can break a tie vote.

  This puts the Democrats in control of the Senate even with the 50/50 split.

  There are 35 Senate seats in play this election. The Republicans are at a slight disadvantage going in because they currently hold 21 of the 35 seats being contested, whereas the Democrats only have to defend 14 seats. The good news for Republicans is that 16 of the 21 seats they are defending are rated “Solid” or “Likely” to stay Republican by The Cook Political Report.

  The Democrats have nine out of 14 seats they are defending rated “Solid” or “Likely.” This means that only 10 of the 35 Senate seats in this election are truly competitive. Control of the Senate will come down to those 10. The Republicans and Democrats currently hold five of the competitive seats each.

  To control the Senate, either party has to hold their five competitive seats and take one from the other party. If you lose a seat, you have to pick up another just to stay even. It’s that close.

  My current best estimate is that Republicans will retain Florida, North Carolina and Ohio. Likewise, the Democrats should retain their seats in Colorado and New Hampshire. This means control of the Senate comes down to Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

  If that list seems familiar it should. Those were the same five states that were hotly contested in the 2020 presidential race. All five went for Biden. Although those remaining races are all close, I rate Nevada and Georgia as wins for Republicans.

  Those two wins represent a pickup of two Senate seats for Republicans since both are currently held by Democrat incumbents. I rate Arizona a win for Mark Kelly, which is a hold for the Democrats.

  Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are both extremely close, but right now one would have to rate those as wins for the Democrats. That’s a pickup of two for the Democrats since both seats are currently held by Republicans.

  If that forecast holds, we’re back to a 50-50 Senate. A few states would change from Democrat to Republican (Nevada and Georgia) or from Republican to Democrat (Wisconsin and Pennsylvania) but the total 50-50 split would be unchanged.

  I have one other forecast: The current forecast will change. They always do when you’re still two months away.

  We could see Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin tip Republican over the next two months. Georgia could remain in the Democratic column. All I can say is I’ll be watching closely and keeping you updated every step of the way.

  A prudent investor would keep an above-average allocation to cash, both to withstand the volatility from potential wild cards and to profit from attractive entry points on certain assets while others are losing fortunes.

  Strap in, it’s going to be a bumpy but fascinating ride.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 09/15/2022 – 20:20

• DOJ Denied Access To Trump Raid Docs After Judge Appoints Special Master
  DOJ Denied Access To Trump Raid Docs After Judge Appoints Special Master

  A special master has been appointed to act as a firewall between the Justice Department and materials seized during an Aug. 8 raid on former President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida.

  

  In a pair of Thursday orders from federal district Judge Aileen Cannon, the DOJ’s motion to access a subset of classified records stored on the Trump property was denied, and a recently retired judge that both the DOJ and Trump’s team agreed on – recently retired Judge Raymond Dearie – will serve as special master.

  

  Raymond has until Nov. 30, 2022 to complete his review.

  Cannon struck down the DOJ’s request for a partial stay of an earlier motion on accessing the seized materials, after lawyers for the government argued that they should be able to review over 100 classified documents taken during the raid – as they are not covered by any claims of personal property or executive privilege.

  That said, Cannon sided with a DOJ request for Trump to pay the full cost associated with a special master.

  “If the court were willing to accept the government’s representations that select portions of the seized materials are—without exception—government property not subject to any privileges, and did not think a special master would serve a meaningful purpose, the court would have denied plaintiff’s special master request,” wrote Cannon. “The court does not find it appropriate to accept the government’s conclusions on these important and disputed issues without further review by a neutral third party in an expedited and orderly fashion.”

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 09/15/2022 – 20:00

• We Need A Common Understanding Of What 'Capitalism' Means
  We Need A Common Understanding Of What ‘Capitalism’ Means

  Authored by John Bitzan & Clay Routledge via RealClear Wire,

  Almost every day, there is a news story or opinion piece blaming a societal problem on capitalism. A recent one blames capitalism for destroying art, citing Warner Brothers cancelling the release of Batgirl. While sometimes it seems that people are just looking for some kind of scapegoat, there continues to be deep skepticism about capitalism, especially among young Americans. When skeptics and advocates talk about capitalism, are we really speaking the same language when we use the word? Though some critics have a deep understanding of different economic systems, new evidence shows how many are confusing free markets with cronyism. This confusion hinders coherent policy discussions, as well as the future of economic freedom and flourishing.

  

  In what has been referred to as “the hockey stick of human prosperity,” there have been huge advances in human prosperity in the last 200 to 300 years after centuries where the world was extremely poor. To better understand why young adults are so skeptical of capitalism — despite the important role that free markets have played in enabling this prosperity — we conducted a survey of 2,000 students at 130 four-year universities and colleges across the U.S., examining how their conceptions of capitalism relate to their attitudes about it. 

  We found much disagreement among students about what is meant by capitalism. When presented with a free market definition (“property is privately owned, exchange is voluntary, and production and pricing of goods/services are determined by market forces”), a cronyism definition (“corporations utilize grants, special tax breaks, political connections, and special rules that favor them…”), and the option of “I’m not sure,” 49% chose the free market definition, while the remaining 51% chose cronyism (36%) or indicated being unsure (15%).

  This conceptual confusion seems to influence how young people view capitalism. Overall, only 23% of students have a positive view of it, compared to 38% with a negative view. However, among those who define capitalism as cronyism, only 6% have a positive view and 70% have a negative view. For those who define capitalism as free markets, 40% have a positive view and 19% a negative view.

  Moreover, the pessimistic views toward capitalism may be fostered by professors’ views. Of students reporting that professors have expressed views on capitalism, 62% say such views have been negative.

  As pointed out in a recent study by Peter G. Klein and several colleagues, confusing capitalism with cronyism may result in decisions and policies that are harmful to society. They point to other studies which link a number of societal problems often attributed to capitalism — poor child health, weak environmental protection, higher income inequality, poor infrastructure quality — to cronyism instead.

  They also point to an unvirtuous spiral that occurs as a result of such confusion. Policy responses that wrongly target market capitalism result in more government intervention in the economy, which creates even more opportunities and incentives for firms to engage in cronyism. This leads to additional harm and distrust in capitalism.

  Two recent examples illustrate this unvirtuous spiral. Recent supply chain disruptions are at least partially rooted in cronyism, with dockworkers unions fighting port automation for decades and lobbying various governments to prevent it, and with the Jones Act preventing non-U.S. owned, built, and crewed ships from transporting goods between U.S. waterway ports.  This has led to calls for “reshoring” with trade tariffs and corporate giveaways to bring supply chains “back home.” Not only do such policies harm consumers and taxpayers, they incentivize firms to engage in lobbying to make sure the “wrong” products are charged tariffs and the “right” ones receive subsidies — a recipe for more of the type of government favoritism that sours the reputation of capitalism. One needs to look no further than the tariffs imposed on steel, aluminum, and Chinese products by the Trump administration to see how they can encourage lobbying and harm small businesses.

  As another example, the important role played by cronyism in hindering the technological progress and institutions needed to combat climate change in developing countries has been ignored by those blaming capitalism for the problem. Policies for combatting climate change have amounted to favoring one technology over others through subsidies, banning other tech, and micromanaging which solution is best through regulations such as building codes. Again, this type of intervention necessarily favors some businesses over other, potentially more environmentally friendly ones, and invites the political lobbying that characterizes cronyism. A great example of this type of cronyism and its implications is the failed Solyndra, a company that went bankrupt shortly after being given $535 million in loans in the Obama administration, where political lobbying played a huge role. Such lobbying incentives are eventually blamed on “capitalism” and further intervention will be sought.

  There are many more such examples. To the extent that we fail to distinguish capitalism from cronyism and treat the wrong disease, we’ll get more cronyism and distrust of honest capitalism will only grow. And however one feels about market capitalism, if America is to continue as the world’s largest economy and a hub of experimentation, innovation, and opportunity, plenty of it will be necessary. This requires, at the very least, a common understanding.

  We believe this effort needs to start in universities, the institutions responsible for forming many of our future leaders. The results of our survey suggest there is much work to be done.

  John Bitzan is Menard Family Director of the Sheila and Robert Challey Institute for Global Innovation and Growth, North Dakota State University.

  Clay Routledge is Vice President of Research and Director of the Human Flourishing Lab at the Archbridge Institute.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 09/15/2022 – 19:40

• Tesla Mulling Chinese Retail Model Reset, Including Moving Showrooms Out Of Large Cities Like Beijing
  Tesla Mulling Chinese Retail Model Reset, Including Moving Showrooms Out Of Large Cities Like Beijing

  In a move we’re absolutely sure has nothing to do with rising tensions between the West and China and/or perpetual Covid lockdowns, Tesla is reportedly mulling a “reset” for its retail strategy in the country. 

  Tesla is “reevaluating the way it sells electric cars in China” and even considering closing some of its showrooms in malls in major cities like Beijing, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday, citing Reuters. 

  Tesla appears to be looking for ways to cut its costs while, at the same time, addressing its years-long issue of not being able to provide adequate customer service. The idea for moving its retail locations is reportedly to put more emphasis on stores in less costly areas where it is easier to provide support.

  For now it appears that Tesla isn’t removing any of their footprint from China, just relocating it. The report says that the company is looking to add staff, with its China recruitment website showing more than 300 openings for service jobs this week. 

  Recall, it looks like business is back to usual in China, as we reported last week that Tesla had delivered 76,965 vehicles in China for August after its Shanghai factory returned to normal operations. 

  

  The automaker delivered 76,965 China-made vehicles in August, which was up 172.8% from the month prior. Data from the China Passenger Car Association showed that the automaker sold 34,502 cars in China and exported 42,463 vehicles. 

  The numbers come even as battery maker CATL had to shut down part of its operations due to power restriction constraints during the month, Reuters reported. CATL’s Yibin plant supplies battery cells to Tesla Shanghai. 

  The stark difference in month-over-month numbers comes as China’s Shanghai plant was down for a planned upgrade for most of July. Recall, deliveries in China had crashed -64.2% heading into the month of August. 

  We noted then that if the trend continued into August, there would be cause for alarm, but August’s numbers look as though the planned shutdowns are finally in the past. Production was halted to upgrade the factory’s Model 3 and Model Y lines.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 09/15/2022 – 19:20

• Locals In North Dakota Oppose Massive Corn Mill Project By Chinese Company
  Locals In North Dakota Oppose Massive Corn Mill Project By Chinese Company

  Authored by Allan Stein via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  One by one, residents opposed to a corn mill investment by a Chinese company with reputed ties to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) through its chairman, got up to chastise the mayor and city council of Grand Forks, North Dakota.

  “You guys are the scariest people I know. You are willing to endanger this city, the people, the country, and this nation,” said Dennis Kadlec, an outspoken critic of the project.

  

  He believes city officials have ignored residents’ concerns over the project and the flag they serve.

  “This is a republic. Please treat it as such,” Kadlec said.

  

  Kadlec’s accusations of inaction and secrecy on the part of city officials seemed to resonate with other concerned citizens at the city council meeting on Sept. 6.

  The group views the corn mill as a potential Chinese spying operation and a threat to the environment and municipal resources.

  Some residents see divisions over the project worsening in a close-knit agricultural community of 56,000, where sugar beets and wheat—not corn—are king.

  The city of Grand Forks is not a significant producer of corn, either, straddling the Minnesota border about 75 miles south of Canada, where winter temperatures can drop to well below zero.

  So the question arises: why would a Chinese company build a corn mill in Grand Forks when harvest volumes are so low?

  Critics who fear Chinese espionage say one needs to look no further than Grand Forks Air Force Base, about 12 miles away. The base stores and tests the military’s sensitive drone, satellite, and surveillance technology.

  However, city officials supporting the corn mill see the project as an economic opportunity too good to pass up. As the most significant single capital investment in the city’s history, it promises 230 permanent high-paying jobs, higher corn prices for regional growers, and other long-term benefits.

  Fufeng USA, the American subsidiary of Fufeng Group, wants to build on 370 acres it acquired that would add millions in sales and property tax revenues and improve city infrastructure.

  The “wet corn” mill would employ thousands of workers during construction and, in operation, extract ingredients used to produce animal feed products for sale in the domestic market.

  At least on paper, the project looks and sounds good.

  What doesn’t sit well with project opponents is the parent company, Fufeng Group, which is based in Shandong Province in China. The company has reputed links with the CCP through its chairman and controlling shareholder, Li Xuechun.

  Many residents opposed to the corn mill also feel the city has been translucent in moving the project along, voting to annex land without proper notice to business abutters to sell to Fufeng USA.

  Some residents have felt so neglected by the local powers that Jodi Carlson and several others recently formed the Concerned Citizens of Fufeng Project in Grand Forks.

  The public group has nearly 3,000 followers on Facebook and vehemently opposes the corn mill project.

  Group meetings have become “very contentious,” Carlson told The Epoch Times, “primarily because we’re just tired. The city council continues to say they’ve answered our questions and haven’t. We still have a lot of questions.”

  One question is what Fufeng USA plans to do with 250 acres not listed in the development plan, Carlson said.

  “We don’t know what’s going to happen with that. We think we have a right [to know], especially since it’s a foreign interest. We don’t think [the city council] vetted it properly. We have a lot of concerns.”

  Two U.S. Senators representing North Dakota have raised alarm bells over potential national security issues surrounding the Fufeng USA project amid building tensions between the United States and China over Taiwan.

  City officials reportedly vowed to stop the project should China invade Taiwan.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 09/15/2022 – 19:00

• Philadelphia 'Soda Tax' Completely Backfired: Study
  Philadelphia ‘Soda Tax’ Completely Backfired: Study

  A new study shows that Philadelphia’s ‘soda tax’ on sugary drinks completely backfired. 

  

  According to researchers from the University of Georgia conducted five years after city lawmakers imposed a 1.5c per ounce tax on sugary drinks, demand for sugary drinks did drop by around 31% – however consumers simply turned to other sweets, or traveled to nearby towns to buy soda according to UGA Today.

  People shopping for sodas outside city limits canceled out almost 40% of the decrease in sugar-sweetened beverage purchases.

  Additionally, the soda pop tax actually led to about a 4% increase in purchases of other high-sugar goods in Philadelphia and in neighboring towns. But compared to the sugar decrease from sodas in Philadelphia, additional sweetened food purchases offset an additional 40%.

  “Can we influence behavior through taxation? Yes, but only if you enact a policy at broader levels of government, such as at the state or national level that prevents people from cross-border shopping,” said the study’s lead author, Felipe Lozano-Rojas, an assistant professor in the School of Public and International Affairs.

  Using nearly four years of data from Nielsen Retail Scanner Data aggregates checkout scanner statistics from participating stores across the country, researchers analyzed over 804 million weekly reports on purchases of sugary foods and sugar-sweetened beverages.

  What’s more, the soda tax disproportionately affected low-income individuals, as such taxes always do.

  “You probably don’t need to run a complicated statistical analysis to know that if somebody charges you more, then you buy less,” said Lozano-Rojas. “But it’s a double-edged sword from the standpoint of who is going to carry the burden of that tax. Low-income groups are going to be disproportionately affected.”

  Previous research has shown people with lower socioeconomic status tend to spend a higher amount of their pay on sugar-sweetened beverages. And the tax burden hits them harder than people who can afford the additional cost to continue purchasing their favorite drink.

  Some experts may argue the taxes are working if they curb consumption and improve health. But there isn’t much definitive research on how soda taxes affect health outcomes in communities, Lozano-Rojas said. -UGA Today

  “If we were to subsidize healthier options, especially for these groups, the tax might work better,” said Lozano-Rojas. “Subsidizing water, making it more accessible, particularly in places where tap water is not drinkable, these are things that might make going with the healthier choice easier. I think this issue requires more of a magnifying glass into these populations to determine the causes driving excessive sugar-sweetened beverage consumption.”

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 09/15/2022 – 18:40

• States To Ban Gas-Powered Cars Despite Human And Environmental Cost Of Electric Vehicles
  States To Ban Gas-Powered Cars Despite Human And Environmental Cost Of Electric Vehicles

  Authored by Katie Spence via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  In Chile’s Salar de Atacama, locals watch helplessly as their ancestral lands wither and die, their precious water resources evaporating in salar brines.

  In the Democratic Republic of Congo, hope for a better life dissolves as well-funded Ugandan-led extremist groups force children as young as six into cobalt mines.

  Closer to home, Nevada’s Fort McDermitt Tribe and local ranchers fight to protect a sacred burial site and agricultural lands set to be sacrificed by Lithium Nevada, a mining company, in the coming days.

  Meanwhile, in California and other states, politicians like Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-Calif.) pat themselves on the back for their “aggressive” environmental stance and boast that their gas-powered vehicle bans are leading “the revolution towards our zero-emission transportation future.”

  

  The Hidden Costs

  According to politicians like Newsom and President Joe Biden, electric vehicles are “zero-emission” because they use lithium-ion batteries—consisting of lithium, cobalt, graphite, and other materials—instead of gas.

  Thus, starting in 2035, California will ban gas-powered vehicle sales, while several other states plan to follow suit, citing the embargo as a “critical milestone in our climate fight,” on Twitter.

  Additionally, according to a statement from Biden, banning gas-powered vehicles will “save consumers money, cut pollution, boost public health, advance environmental justice, and tackle the climate crisis.”

  Disagreeing with such claims, John Hadder, director of the Great Basin Resource Watch, pointed out to The Epoch Times that “industrial” nations might benefit from the electric vehicle transition but it’s at the expense of others.

  

  “This expansion of [lithium] mining will have immediate consequences for front-line communities that are taking the ‘hit.’”

  For example, Copiapó, the capital of Chile’s Atacama region, is the location of one of the world’s largest known lithium reserves.

  “We used to have a river before that now doesn’t exist. There isn’t a drop of water,” Elena Rivera Cardoso, president of the Indigenous Colla community of the Copiapó commune, told the National Resources Defense Council (NRDC).

  She added that all of Chile’s water is disappearing because of the local lithium mine. “In all of Chile, there are rivers and lakes that have disappeared—all because a company has a lot more right to water than we do as human beings or citizens of Chile.”

  

  In collaboration with Cardosa’s statement, the Institute for Energy Research reports that 65 percent of the area’s limited water resources evaporate in salar brines.

  That’s displacing indigenous communities who have called Atacama home for over 6,000 years because farmers and ranchers have cracked, dry soil, and no choice but to abandon their ancestral settlements, according to the U.N. Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

  Mine Proposed in Northern Nevada

  Saying goodbye to an ancestral homeland as a local lithium mine destroys it is something the communities in Northern Nevada are fighting to avoid.

  “The agricultural communities on either side of the pass are likely to be changed forever,” Hadder told The Epoch Times. “The [Thacker Pass mine] could affect their ability to farm and ranch in the area. The air quality will decrease … and increased water scarcity is likely.”

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 09/15/2022 – 18:20

• Pelosi Going To Armenia As Death Toll Rises In Azerbaijan Border Fighting
  Pelosi Going To Armenia As Death Toll Rises In Azerbaijan Border Fighting

  A tenuous ceasefire along the Armenia-Azerbaijan border appears to have held since it was enacted at 8pm local time (16:00 GMT) on Wednesday, but the death toll has risen in this biggest flare-up in fighting since the Nagorno-Karabakh war of 2020.

  As of Thursday, after two days of fierce shelling the total death toll stands at 176 soldiers killed, with Armenia saying 105 of its troops were killed, and Azerbaijan counting 71 deaths among its forces. Each side blames the other for starting the fresh clashes. 

  

  The United Nations praised the two sides reaching a ceasefire, with a statement saying, “The international community must remain fully committed to a peaceful settlement between Armenia and Azerbaijan and spare no effort to de-escalate the current tensions, bring the parties back to the negotiation table and help them achieve peace and stability in the region.”

  Politico is reporting that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will travel Armenia this weekend in a show of support for the country and to work toward ensuring a peace holds. She’s expected to meet with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Yerevan, following the G-7 Speakers’ Summit in Berlin. 

  She’s expected to travel with Armenian-American Congress member Rep. Jackie Speier (D-Calif.). Politico observes that “It will be the speaker’s latest dramatic foreign trip following her contentious arrival in Taiwan last month. With the midterms approaching — and the possibility that she will lose the gavel if Republicans return to the majority — the belief in Washington is that Pelosi wants to cement her legacy as a champion of human rights, not only in the United States but around the world.”

  While citing two anonymous officials who confirmed plans for the trip, there hasn’t been official verification from either Pelosi nor Speier’s offices “due to longstanding security protocols.”

  German independent MEP Martin Sonnebom addressing Ursula von der Leyen:

  In order to break with a gas supplier who is waging a brutal war of aggression – Putin – you have found us another one who is waging a brutal war of aggression – Aliyev. 1/#Azerbaijan #Armenia #EU pic.twitter.com/VnA9wmTv70

  — History of the Armenian People (@historyarmenia) September 14, 2022

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  Complicating matters regarding boiling border tensions, there are still several hundred Russian peacekeeping troops in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, as part of the settlement from the last round of fighting centered there. This peacekeeping mission is now in doubt, and Russia’s major base in Armenia territory is said to be on “high alert”. 

  Azerbaijan previously “necessary response measures” by military units stationed at the border on Wednesday just before a ceasefire took hold. That’s when Armenian Deputy Foreign Minister Paruyr Hovhannisyan told Reuters “the clashes could escalate into a war – a second major armed conflict in the former Soviet Union while Russia’s military is focused on the invasion of Ukraine.”

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 09/15/2022 – 18:00

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• Whitehead: All The Ways In Which Our Rights Have Been Usurped
  Whitehead: All The Ways In Which Our Rights Have Been Usurped

  Authored by John and Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

  “We the people are the rightful masters of both Congress and the courts, not to overthrow the Constitution but to overthrow the men who pervert the Constitution.”

  – Abraham Lincoln

  It’s easy to become discouraged about the state of our nation.

  We’re drowning under the weight of too much debt, too many wars, too much power in the hands of a centralized government, too many militarized police, too many laws, too many lobbyists, and generally too much bad news.

  It’s harder to believe that change is possible, that the system can be reformed, that politicians can be principled, that courts can be just, that good can overcome evil, and that freedom will prevail.

  So where does that leave us?

  Benjamin Franklin provided the answer. As the delegates to the Constitutional Convention trudged out of Independence Hall on September 17, 1787, an anxious woman in the crowd waiting at the entrance inquired of Franklin, “Well, Doctor, what have we got, a republic or a monarchy?” “A republic,” Franklin replied, “if you can keep it.”

  What Franklin meant, of course, is that when all is said and done, we get the government we deserve.

  Those who gave us the Constitution and the Bill of Rights believed that the government exists at the behest of its citizens. It is there to protect, defend and even enhance our freedoms, not violate them.

  Unfortunately, although the Bill of Rights was adopted as a means of protecting the people against government tyranny, in America today, the government does whatever it wants, freedom be damned.

  “We the people” have been terrorized, traumatized, and tricked into a semi-permanent state of compliance by a government that cares nothing for our lives or our liberties.

  The bogeyman’s names and faces have changed over time (terrorism, the war on drugs, illegal immigration, a viral pandemic, and more to come), but the end result remains the same: in the so-called name of national security, the Constitution has been steadily chipped away at, undermined, eroded, whittled down, and generally discarded with the support of Congress, the White House, and the courts.

  A recitation of the Bill of Rights—set against a backdrop of government surveillance, militarized police, SWAT team raids, asset forfeiture, eminent domain, overcriminalization, armed surveillance drones, whole body scanners, stop and frisk searches, vaccine mandates, lockdowns, and the like (all sanctioned by Congress, the White House, and the courts)—would understandably sound more like a eulogy to freedoms lost than an affirmation of rights we truly possess.

  What we are left with today is but a shadow of the robust document adopted more than two centuries ago. Sadly, most of the damage has been inflicted upon the Bill of Rights.

  Here is what it means to live under the Constitution, twenty-plus years after 9/11 and with the nation just emerging from two years of COVID-19 lockdowns and mandates.

  The First Amendment is supposed to protect the freedom to speak your mind, assemble and protest nonviolently without being bridled by the government. It also protects the freedom of the media, as well as the right to worship and pray without interference. In other words, Americans should not be silenced by the government. To the founders, all of America was a free speech zone.

  Despite the clear protections found in the First Amendment, the freedoms described therein are under constant assault. Increasingly, Americans are being persecuted for exercising their First Amendment rights and speaking out against government corruption. Activists are being arrested and charged for daring to film police officers engaged in harassment or abusive practices. Journalists are being prosecuted for reporting on whistleblowers. States are passing legislation to muzzle reporting on cruel and abusive corporate practices. Religious ministries are being fined for attempting to feed and house the homeless. Protesters are being tear-gassed, beaten, arrested and forced into “free speech zones.” And under the guise of “government speech,” the courts have reasoned that the government can discriminate freely against any First Amendment activity that takes place within a so-called government forum.

  The Second Amendment was intended to guarantee “the right of the people to keep and bear arms.” Essentially, this amendment was intended to give the citizenry the means to resist tyrannical government. Yet while gun ownership has been recognized by the U.S. Supreme Court as an individual citizen right, Americans remain powerless to defend themselves against red flag gun laws, militarized police, SWAT team raids, and government agencies armed to the teeth with military weapons better suited to the battlefield.

  The Third Amendment reinforces the principle that civilian-elected officials are superior to the military by prohibiting the military from entering any citizen’s home without “the consent of the owner.” With the police increasingly training like the military, acting like the military, and posing as military forces—complete with heavily armed SWAT teams, military weapons, assault vehicles, etc.—it is clear that we now have what the founders feared most—a standing army on American soil.

  The Fourth Amendment prohibits government agents from conducting surveillance on you or touching you or encroaching on your private property unless they have evidence that you’re up to something criminal. In other words, the Fourth Amendment ensures privacy and bodily integrity. Unfortunately, the Fourth Amendment has suffered the greatest damage in recent years and has been all but eviscerated by an unwarranted expansion of governmental police powers that include strip searches and even anal and vaginal searches of citizens, surveillance (corporate and otherwise), and intrusions justified in the name of fighting terrorism, as well as the outsourcing of otherwise illegal activities to private contractors.

  The Fifth Amendment and the Sixth Amendment work in tandem. These amendments supposedly ensure that you are innocent until proven guilty, and government authorities cannot deprive you of your life, your liberty or your property without the right to an attorney and a fair trial before a civilian judge. However, in the new suspect society in which we live, where surveillance is the norm, these fundamental principles have been upended. Certainly, if the government can arbitrarily freeze, seize or lay claim to your property (money, land or possessions) under government asset forfeiture schemes, you have no true rights.

  The Seventh Amendment guarantees citizens the right to a jury trial. Yet when the populace has no idea of what’s in the Constitution—civic education has virtually disappeared from most school curriculums—that inevitably translates to an ignorant jury incapable of distinguishing justice and the law from their own preconceived notions and fears. However, as a growing number of citizens are coming to realize, the power of the jury to nullify the government’s actions—and thereby help balance the scales of justice—is not to be underestimated. Jury nullification reminds the government that “we the people” retain the power to ultimately determine what laws are just.

  The Eighth Amendment is similar to the Sixth in that it is supposed to protect the rights of the accused and forbid the use of cruel and unusual punishment. However, the Supreme Court’s determination that what constitutes “cruel and unusual” should be dependent on the “evolving standards of decency that mark the progress of a maturing society” leaves us with little protection in the face of a society lacking in morals altogether.

  The Ninth Amendment provides that other rights not enumerated in the Constitution are nonetheless retained by the people. Popular sovereignty—the belief that the power to govern flows upward from the people rather than downward from the rulers—is clearly evident in this amendment. However, it has since been turned on its head by a centralized federal government that sees itself as supreme and which continues to pass more and more laws that restrict our freedoms under the pretext that it has an “important government interest” in doing so.

  As for the Tenth Amendment’s reminder that the people and the states retain every authority that is not otherwise mentioned in the Constitution, that assurance of a system of government in which power is divided among local, state and national entities has long since been rendered moot by the centralized Washington, DC, power elite—the president, Congress and the courts.

  Thus, if there is any sense to be made from this recitation of freedoms lost, it is simply this: our individual freedoms have been eviscerated so that the government’s powers could be expanded.

  It was no idle happenstance that the Constitution opens with these three powerful words: “We the people.” As the Preamble proclaims:

  We, the people of the United States, in order to form a more perfect Union, establish justice, insure domestic tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare, and secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity, do ordain and establish this CONSTITUTION for the United States of America.

  In other words, it’s our job to make the government play by the rules of the Constitution.

  We are supposed to be the masters and they—the government and its agents—are the servants.

  We the American people—the citizenry—are supposed to be the arbiters and ultimate guardians of America’s welfare, defense, liberty, laws and prosperity.

  Still, it’s hard to be a good citizen if you don’t know anything about your rights or how the government is supposed to operate.

  As the National Review rightly asks, “How can Americans possibly make intelligent and informed political choices if they don’t understand the fundamental structure of their government? American citizens have the right to self-government, but it seems that we increasingly lack the capacity for it.”

  Americans are constitutionally illiterate.

  Most citizens have little, if any, knowledge about their basic rights. And our educational system does a poor job of teaching the basic freedoms guaranteed in the Constitution and the Bill of Rights. For instance, a survey by the Annenberg Public Policy Center found that a little more than one-third of respondents (36 percent) could name all three branches of the U.S. government, while another one-third (35 percent) could not name a single one.

  A survey by the McCormick Tribune Freedom Museum found that only one out of a thousand adults could identify the five rights protected by the First Amendment. On the other hand, more than half (52%) of the respondents could name at least two of the characters in the animated Simpsons television family, and 20% could name all five. And although half could name none of the freedoms in the First Amendment, a majority (54%) could name at least one of the three judges on the TV program American Idol, 41% could name two and one-fourth could name all three.

  It gets worse.

  Many who responded to the survey had a strange conception of what was in the First Amendment. For example, a startling number of respondents believed that the “right to own a pet” and the “right to drive a car” were part of the First Amendment. Another 38% believed that “taking the Fifth” was part of the First Amendment.

  Teachers and school administrators do not fare much better. A study conducted by the Center for Survey Research and Analysis found that one educator in five was unable to name any of the freedoms in the First Amendment.

  Government leaders and politicians are also ill-informed. Although they take an oath to uphold, support and defend the Constitution against “enemies foreign and domestic,” their lack of education about our fundamental rights often causes them to be enemies of the Bill of Rights.

  So what’s the solution?

  Thomas Jefferson recognized that a citizenry educated on “their rights, interests, and duties”  is the only real assurance that freedom will survive.

  As Jefferson wrote in 1820: “I know no safe depository of the ultimate powers of our society but the people themselves; and if we think them not enlightened enough to exercise their control with a wholesome discretion, the remedy is not to take it from them, but to inform their discretion by education. This is the true corrective of abuses of constitutional power.”

  From the President on down, anyone taking public office should have a working knowledge of the Constitution and the Bill of Rights and should be held accountable for upholding their precepts. One way to ensure this would be to require government leaders to take a course on the Constitution and pass a thorough examination thereof before being allowed to take office.

  Some critics are advocating that students pass the United States citizenship exam in order to graduate from high school. Others recommend that it must be a prerequisite for attending college. I’d go so far as to argue that students should have to pass the citizenship exam before graduating from grade school.

  Here’s an idea to get educated and take a stand for freedom: anyone who signs up to become a member of The Rutherford Institute gets a wallet-sized Bill of Rights card and a Know Your Rights card. Use this card to teach your children the freedoms found in the Bill of Rights.

  A healthy, representative government is hard work. It takes a citizenry that is informed about the issues, educated about how the government operates, and willing to do more than grouse and complain.

  As I point out in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People and in its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, “we the people” have the power to make and break the government.

  

  The powers-that-be want us to remain divided over politics, hostile to those with whom we disagree politically, and intolerant of anyone or anything whose solutions to what ails this country differ from our own. They also want us to believe that our job as citizens begins and ends on Election Day.

  Yet there are 330 million of us in this country. Imagine what we could accomplish if we actually worked together, presented a united front, and spoke with one voice.

  Tyranny wouldn’t stand a chance.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 09/14/2022 – 23:40

• Watch: US Army Conducts 'Drone Swarm' Exercise With Armed Quadcopters
  Watch: US Army Conducts ‘Drone Swarm’ Exercise With Armed Quadcopters

  While unmanned aerial vehicles such as the multi-million dollar General Atomics MQ-1 Predator are armed with missiles, a new generation of inexpensive “kamikaze” drones is reshaping the battlefield. 

  The US military worries that these low-cost and deadly-effective drones could shift the global strategic balance away from the US on the modern battlefield.

  To counter such emerging threats, the Army decided to conduct a field training exercise involving “a swarm of 40 quadcopters all equipped with cameras, MILES, and lethal munition,” tweeted the Commanding General of the National Training Center and Fort Irwin.

  

  The startling video (tweeted on Sunday evening) shows the quadcopters zooming by what appears to be a makeshift desert town. There was no confirmation on location though it could’ve been at the Fort Irwin training facility in southern California. There was also no confirmation of when the training exercise was conducted. 

  At sunrise this morning a swarm of 40 quadcopters all equipped with cameras, MILES, and lethal munition capable launched in advance of 11th ACR’s attack on a prepared defense by 1AD. Drones will be as important in the first battle of the next war as artillery is today. pic.twitter.com/zPQ2I8SoqN

  — NTC Lead 6 (@NTCLead6) September 11, 2022

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  “Drones will be as important in the first battle of the next war as artillery is today,” the Army’s Twitter account concluded. 

  Perhaps the Army has discovered the same quadcopters bought on Amazon have been powerful tools in the war against Russia in Ukraine. The weaponization of such drones is even more powerful as some have been turned into suicide drones. 

  The Pentagon has supplied Ukraine with over 700 Switchblade “kamikaze” military drones. The future of warfare appears to be clear to the Army: small suicide drones for precision strikes will be necessary on any modern battlefield. 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 09/14/2022 – 23:20

• National Security Threat: China's Eyes In America
  National Security Threat: China’s Eyes In America

  Authored by Peter Schweizer via The Epoch Times,

  Chinese intelligence gathering in the US takes many forms and has different purposes. Most Americans are familiar with some of their means and tactics, but not with how widespread and persistent they are.

  Americans may know about the malware contained in that infernal TikTok app that their children use. They may know the Chinese military’s cyber-intelligence service was likely behind many of the largest hacks of Americans’ personal data that have ever occurred. They may know from the news how US defense and intelligence policy have sanctioned Chinese telecom giant Huawei, and counseled America’s allies to reject Chinese-architected implementations of 5G networking, due to evidence that China has planted backdoors in commercial networking equipment designed to allow the Communist regime in Beijing to conduct surveillance and cyber-espionage anywhere in the world.

  Do they know it extends to consumer-level drones?

  

  Cybersecurity expert Klon Kitchen, writing for The Dispatch, recently detailed the problem with DJI, the Chinese company whose consumer and commercial grade drones control nearly 90% of the market.

  These popular products are cost-effective, easy to fly and operate, and send every byte of data they gather to servers in China.

  For this reason, they are banned by the US military and Department of Homeland Security, though still used by the FBI and increasingly by local police as “eyes in the sky” during crime events.

  FBI use of DJI drones is especially ironic considering bureau director Christopher Wray has warned often of the dangers to western commerce posed by the Chinese, most recently in London.

  The excellent reporting on DJI by Kitchen tracks efforts by the company to lobby against passage of a bill called the American Security Drone Act (ASDA), now before Congress, to outlaw federal government use of DJI products entirely. What is the risk? Not only the data gathered by the drones themselves, but everything collected by the mobile app with which users control their drones and manage their DJI accounts. Like many other mobile applications, this includes a user’s contacts, photos, GPS location, and online activities.

  To repeat: Every DJI drone in the skies above America is as good as a hovering Chinese spy.

  Like other Chinese government-controlled companies such as Huawei and Hikvision, makers of the artificial intelligence systems used in facial recognition and in the repression of China’s Uyghur minority, DJI is adept at playing the Washington game. The company is engaged in a fierce lobbying effort to prevent passage of the ASDA bill. So fierce that they have enlisted police officers from local jurisdictions to come to Washington and lobby congressional staffers about how great DJI drones are for their cash-strapped local forces. As Kitchen points out, the ASDA bill is directed only towards a federal ban on these drones, but DJI lobbyists from firms like Squire Patton Boggs, Cassidy & Associates, and CLS Strategies are taking no chances. The company spent $2.2 million in lobbying efforts in 2020 and $1.4 million last year on lobbying activities, according to OpenSecrets.org.

  These lobbyists are using the classic argument that it would be wrong to ban the federal government’s use of our product because so many other people are using it. This is doubtless the dilemma currently facing the app stores of Apple and Google regarding the TikTok app, another Chinese product. The TikTok app has been identified by cybersecurity professionals as containing a keystroke logger, and both Apple and Google have been pressured by the Federal Communications Commission to remove it from their app stores. “Can we really ban something that so many people are happily using?” they must be asking themselves.

  Therein lies the heart of the Chinese approach. TikTok was a mobile device application that no one was asking for, yet it became an overnight sensation in most western countries. We really must acknowledge, and grudgingly admire, the brilliant insight shown by the app’s creator company, Chinese-government-controlled ByteDance, into the psyche of large numbers of young, western people. The TikTok app, pitched initially as a way to share and watch silly dance video clips, has been adopted by younger “woke” schoolteachers to “out” themselves as scheming, haranguing social justice warriors intent on smuggling sexual ideology into their classrooms and bragging about it.

  This adds some context to Republican Sen. Rob Portman’s (R-OH) exasperation at a Senate hearing about the ASDA legislation, where he said:

  “Again, given what the FBI has told us, what the Commerce Department has told us, what we know from reports, I can’t believe we have to write legislation to force US agencies to ban the use of Chinese-made drones, particularly where the servers are in China, where the Chinese government is a part owner and a supporter of this particular company.”

  The Chinese approach is to “capture” elite institutions and individuals in the US: politicians, leading universities, large pension funds, social media, and Hollywood among them. My latest book, Red Handed, documents this capture in the areas of politics, diplomatic and business consulting, Big Tech, academia, and on Wall Street. There is insight in the Soviet-era statement, attributed to Lenin, about capitalists “selling us the rope with which to hang them.” Yet, it is the Chinese that understood how to sell the rope at a good price.

  Much as they are doing with products such as solar panels, the Chinese realize that cornering the market in an area where reach equals access is critical to their long-term plans to dominate. Their pattern includes stealing technology they cannot create themselves and using any means available to aid in that theft. Therefore, every bit of access to information they can scour is of more value to them than the product used to get it.

  Understanding these patterns is crucial to recognizing that the Chinese do this to their own people as well. As Gordon Chang’s recent piece for the Gatestone Institute discusses, the Chinese Communist Party maintains tight control of Chinese people overseas through many different forms of what we may baldly call blackmail. The many stories of intimidation of Chinese students and academics in the US who speak up about human rights abuses by China, or in support for democracy in Hong Kong and Taiwanese independence, all demonstrate this.

  Universities have put up with this in exchange for foreign funds for decades. They are only recently being confronted by the costs of this indulgence. For example, the former chairman of Harvard University’s Chemistry and Chemical Biology Department was convicted by a federal jury for lying to federal authorities about his affiliation with the People’s Republic of China’s Thousand Talents Program and the Wuhan University of Technology (WUT) in Wuhan, China, as well as failing to report income he received from WUT.

  The Wilson Center, a bipartisan think tank in Washington, reported in 2017 that a small community of PRC students and diplomats have engaged in intimidation tactics ranging from intelligence gathering to financial retaliation. “A Preliminary Study of PRC Political Influence and Interference Activities in American Higher Education” examines PRC influence in American universities.

  It was just those sorts of concerns that led the Trump administration to create the “China Initiative” within the Justice Department in 2018. This effort generated plenty of convictions of Chinese nationals in the US for technology theft and other forms of industrial espionage. The Biden administration ended the program this year, citing concerns that a broader approach was needed and in response to lobbying by Asian American groups that it unfairly targeted scientists with connections to China. Further, Assistant Attorney General Matthew Olsen also said he heard concerns from the academic community that prosecutions of researchers for grant fraud and other charges was having a “chilling effect.”

  Be that as it may, China’s strategy has for years hinged on infiltration by some Chinese scientists and researchers working abroad in the US and other western nations, with threats against their Chinese relatives as leverage for them to do so. This will remain a counter-intelligence problem regardless of what the effort to expose it is called.

  It is all part of the pattern.

  Call it sabotage by remote control.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 09/14/2022 – 23:00

• US, Ukraine Are In Talks To Transfer Fighter Jets & Longer-Range Missiles
  US, Ukraine Are In Talks To Transfer Fighter Jets & Longer-Range Missiles

  The US and its allies are in talks over whether to send Ukraine more advanced weapons in the future, including fighter jets, US defense sources have said, according to the Financial Times. The Kharkiv counteroffensive has apparently emboldened Ukrainian officials to press Washington harder for more advanced and longer-range weapons, now that some degree of success in rolling back Russian forces can be demonstrated. 

  The idea is that if Ukraine’s forces can prove they’ve taken back significant territory with what defense systems the US has provided so far, they can ultimately make the case that the whole of the east and south is within their reach – and even the potential to liberate Crimea while they’re at it – if longer range and more advanced arms are made available. 

  

  The Financial Times reports this week that active discussions between the US and Ukraine are underway concerning Kiev’s weapons wish list: 

  A senior US defense official said Washington and its allies were discussing Ukraine’s longer term needs, such as air defenses, and whether it might be appropriate to give Kyiv fighter aircraft in the “medium to longer term”. To date, the US and its allies have declined to do so.

  But interestingly and quite tellingly, the report immediately follows with the acknowledgement that Ukrainian leaders are perhaps naturally incentivize to exaggerate battlefield gains at this moment. Here’s more from the FT as the Pentagon offers a “cautiously optimistic” assessment of Ukraine’s ongoing counteroffensives in the east and south: 

  Ukrainian military officials have said in recent days they have taken more than 3,000 sq km of terrain in what has become Moscow’s biggest military setback since it was forced to scrap plans to conquer Kyiv. But late on Monday night President Volodymyr Zelenskyy practically doubled those claims as Ukraine’s forces continued to advance.

  Something Ukraine has additionally long been asking for is longer-range missile systems. A Monday Wall Street Journal report detailed that Kiev is now requesting from the Pentagon the Army’s Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, a surface-to-surface missile system with the capability of reaching about 190 miles. This would be far and beyond the range of missiles transferred to Ukraine thus far in the conflict. 

  The Biden administration in the early months resisted sending longer range missiles, admitting its fears that doing so could draw the US and Russia into direct conflict – given longer range munitions means Ukrainian forces would have the capability of hitting inside Russian territory. This has already happened with Crimea, and even recently with bases inside Russia proper near the border.

  But now US defense officials are looking over a new strategy proposal and weapons request submitted by Valeriy Zaluzhny, the commander in chief of Ukraine’s force. WSJ details of the document:

  They argued that Russia has long-range cruise missiles that greatly outdistance the systems in the Ukrainian inventory. A turning point could come if the Ukrainians also had longer-range systems, they argued, specifically mentioning the ATACMS.

  “The only way to radically change the strategic situation is, without a doubt, for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to launch several consecutive, and ideally, simultaneous counterattacks during the 2023 campaign,” they wrote.

  Currently, the HIMARS systems which are already being provided have a reported max range of 50 miles, and the US administration previously asserted Ukraine had given “guarantees” they wouldn’t be used to target Russian territory. 

  🎥🇺🇦 HIMARS#Russia #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/IDlIkpuCbB

  — BlueSauron👁️ (@Blue_Sauron) September 13, 2022

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  Meanwhile, on Tuesday the White House previewed that yet another fresh arms package for Ukraine is likely to be announced in the coming days. This as Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has pledged that NATO allies are ready to support the war against Russia for the “long haul”.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 09/14/2022 – 22:40

• 'Significant Proof' Air Force Discriminated Against Troops Seeking Religious Exemptions To Vaccine Mandate: Court
  ‘Significant Proof’ Air Force Discriminated Against Troops Seeking Religious Exemptions To Vaccine Mandate: Court

  Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Air Force members seeking religious exemptions from the U.S. military’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate have provided “significant proof” that the military branch has discriminated against them, a federal appeals court ruled on Sept. 12.

  

  A U.S. district court in July blocked the mandate for thousands of Air Force members who remain unvaccinated and have had their religious exemptions denied or not acted upon. In response, the government asked for an emergency stay. When that was denied, the government went to the U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals for the 6th Circuit, arguing that the ruling was wrong.

  An appeals court panel said in its decision released Monday that plaintiffs had to provide significant proof that the Air Force had a policy to deny all requests for religious exemptions, and all indications are that they have.

  “To establish a general policy … the plaintiffs need not show that the Department rejects 100% of requests for religious exemptions. And the Department’s own statistics show that, as of May 23, 2022, it had rejected more than 99% of them,” U.S. Circuit Judge Raymond Kethledge, a George W. Bush appointee, wrote in the 11-page order.

  “That the Department has granted only a comparative handful of religious exemptions, while granting thousands of medical and administrative ones, is itself at this stage of the case significant proof of discrimination,” he added.

  Kethledge was joined by Circuit Judges Eric Murphy and John K. Bush, both Trump appointees.

  Plaintiffs

  The plaintiffs are all members who sought religious exemptions and were deemed by chaplains to hold sincere religious beliefs, but the military rejected many of their requests anyways. The others haven’t received final decisions but expect to be rejected, based on the treatment of like-minded airmen.

  The group has said that evidence shows the military systemically denied requests for religious exemptions, denying federal law and the U.S. Constitution.

  “This order by the Court of Appeals affirms that the Department of Defense and the Air Force violated religious free exercise rights of service members which is protected under the Religious Freedom Restoration Act and the First Amendment,” Mat Staver, founder and chairman of Liberty Counsel, which is representing the plaintiffs, said in a statement.

  “This is a great victory for religious freedom, especially for these Air Force service members who love God and love America. These mandates will continue to crumble one by one in the courts,” he added.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 09/14/2022 – 22:20

• Can This Lawsuit Overturn California's 3D-Printed Gun Ban?
  Can This Lawsuit Overturn California’s 3D-Printed Gun Ban?

  In response to the recent signing of AB 1621 into law in California by Governor Gavin Newsom, Pioneers of the 3D Printed Gun, Defense Distributed has filed a pivotal lawsuit.

  This lawsuit, Defense Distributed v. Bonta, could set a precedent for regulating privately made firearms, also known as “Ghost Guns.” 

  AB 1621 criminalizes the purchase, possession, and use of CNC machines & 3D printers to make a firearm or firearm parts. Defense Distributed’s lawsuit challenges the law under the recent Supreme Court decision, NYSRPA v. Bruen.

  In Bruen, the Supreme Court ruled that Second Amendment challenges must be rooted in the amendment’s text, informed by history. In the same ruling, the court struck down the means-end scrutiny test often used by lower courts to uphold State level gun control laws. 

  Defense Distributed claims that there is no historical tradition of regulating the tools or parts used to make private arms. This means there is no historical precedent for California’s ban on CNC Machines & 3D Printers.

  

  The Vice President of the Second Amendment Foundation Alan M. Gottleib had this to say: 

  “What we’re talking about is a milling process, which is common in modern manufacturing of a wide range of products, including firearm frames and receivers. Despite the long-standing tradition of personal firearms manufacture by private citizens, California has now criminalized the process.”

  Additionally, as part of the lawsuit, Defense Distributed also addresses another California law: SB1327.

  SB1327 makes any person who challenges California’s gun laws in court liable to pay the state’s attorney’s fees at any stage of the litigation. It’s a law that the American Civil Liberties Union described as using “flawed logic.” 

  “California responds to the historic Bruen decision by 1) banning your right to make a gun, and 2) booby-trapping their state courts for anyone who’d dare to ask for it back,” explained Cody Wilson, Founder of Defense Distributed, “Yet another example of liberals shredding the 1st Amendment to deny the 2nd.”

  Defense Distributed has an established track record of winning similar cases. In 2018 the Justice Department settled a case with Defense Distributed (Defense Distributed v. United States Department of State), resulting in the publishing of 3D-printed firearms files online.

  Defense Distributed & The Second Amendment Foundation are seeking a Federal Court Injunction against the enforcement of the laws (AB 1621 & SB1327). 

  Here’s Defense Distributed’s lawsuit against California: 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 09/14/2022 – 22:00

• "It's A Horror Show": Bill Gross' "Short Of A Lifetime" Seven Years Later
  “It’s A Horror Show”: Bill Gross’ “Short Of A Lifetime” Seven Years Later

  By Ven Ram, Bloomberg markets live reporter and analyst

  Bill Gross famously remarked in 2015 that bunds represented the short of a lifetime. He was seven years too early.

  To watch German bonds this year has been like witnessing a horror show. Yet, we are only nearing intermission — meaning there is far worse to emerge in the months ahead.

  The European Central Bank raised rates by an emphatic 75 basis points last week and flagged that there was more to come, spurring traders to factor in about 170 basis points of additional tightening. Markets expect the euro-area deposit rate to top out at around 2.35% in the current cycle.

  Even so, that may be underestimating the work required of the ECB to curb inflation.

  A crucial piece of calculus will be to work out where the elusive, unobservable neutral rate is for the ECB. Given a lack of inflation before the pandemic, the euro area’s r* was widely estimated to be between 1% and 2%.

  

  However, in the post-pandemic world that has completely upended the region’s inflation outlook, a nominal neutral rate would perforce be higher than its 2% target assuming that the ECB targets a neutral real rate of at least zero. In fact, given that HICP is currently running at almost 9%, it may be argued that the short-term neutral nominal rate is somewhere between 2.50% and 3%.

  In other words, it is possible that the ECB may raise rates all the way to around 3% should inflation prove to be stubbornly high in the coming quarters, with President Christine Lagarde having commented in May that “a progressive further normalization of interest rates toward the neutral rate will be appropriate.” According to the ECB’s own projections, inflation doesn’t converge to its 2% target even in 2024.

  The benchmark policy rate for the euro area implied by the well-known Taylor Rule is, in fact, around 3.40%. While it may seem unlikely that the ECB will raise rates that high in the current cycle, the rule highlights the scale of the challenge the monetary authority faces. More importantly perhaps, it shows that risks are skewed to the upside.

  All the above mean that two-year German bonds, whose yields have already surged almost 200 basis points this year, are not done with the phenomenal selloff. In fact, the yield may ascend to 2.50% and beyond by the middle of next year should the ECB continue with its tightening as priced by the markets.

  In turn, yields on German 10-year bunds — now around 1.70% after soaring more than 180 basis points this year, may approach around 2.30%, with the lower peak for the longer maturity predicated on an inversion of the yield curve in sympathy with expected weakness in the euro-area economy.

  Given the outlook for the ECB’s rate trajectory, there’s still plenty more downside on German bonds. Bill Gross’s portfolio may be up for it this time around.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 09/14/2022 – 21:40

• US Military Introduces Exoskeleton Suit For Soldiers
  US Military Introduces Exoskeleton Suit For Soldiers

  The US Army is about to receive a lightweight, unpowered exoskeleton suit called the Soldier Assistive Bionic Exosuit for Resupply (SABER), which can increase the strength and endurance of soldiers, DEVCOM Army Public Affairs Office said in a press release. 

  

  SABER weighs just three pounds and is a harness that soldiers strap around their shoulders and legs. All a soldier has to do to activate the suit is press a button on the left shoulder. When activated, the exoskeleton suit reduces stress on soldiers’ backs by more than 100 pounds while lifting all sorts of heavy items, such as ammo boxes, artillery rounds, and .50 caliber machine guns. Testing showed that most soldiers had a 60% increase in endurance while wearing the suit. 

  

  Researchers at Vanderbilt designed SABER and worked with soldiers in the 101st Airborne Division to test exoskeleton suits in heavy-lifting field scenarios. The exosuit addresses the need to reduce injury and fatigue, which are critical to combat readiness. 

  “We spent the first few months focused on interviewing, observing, and spending time with Soldiers.

  “We didn’t try to create Iron Man — a complex, full-body, rigid, unrealistic suit. Instead, we started by deeply understanding Soldier needs to develop a lightweight, low-profile, non-powered wearable tool that helps provide much-needed assistance without slowing Soldiers down or interfering with other operational tasks,” said Dr. Karl Zelik, associate professor of mechanical engineering, Vanderbilt University.

  In the last five years, we’ve kept readers abreast with the Army’s development of exoskeleton suits, including Army Tests New ‘AI-Controlled-Exoskeleton’ Super-Soldier and Army Starts Testing “Ironman-Like” Exoskeleton For Future Hybrid Wars. 

  SABER received high marks after 90% of soldiers who wore the suits after operational field testing in May said they would perform their duties much better. 

  Production of the suits will start in late 2022 by HeroWear, a Nashville-based industrial exosuit manufacturer. The goal is for hundreds of soldiers to be utilizing the suits in 2023. 

  We have noted the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) wants ‘Ironman-like’ suits on the modern battlefield. 

  #FunFactFriday – The Royal Navy has been testing Jet Suit assault teams to determine if the Iron Man-like suits could be used to rapidly swarm and board ships. U.S. Special Operations Command is also evaluating a jetpack that can reach speeds of more than 200 mph. pic.twitter.com/mo5FoGWkDu

  — U.S. Naval Institute (@NavalInstitute) October 16, 2020

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  Maybe a real-life version of Marvel’s Tony Stark jet suit will be fielded within this decade…

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 09/14/2022 – 21:20

• Zelensky Involved In Car Crash, No Serious Injuries
  Zelensky Involved In Car Crash, No Serious Injuries

  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s car collided with another vehicle early Thursday after a battlefield visit, but he was not seriously injured, his spokesman said.

  

  Zelenskyy was returning to Kyiv from the Kharkiv region, where he visited troops in the recaptured city of Izium. A passenger vehicle collided with the president’s motorcade in the Ukrainian capital, his spokesman, Sergii Nikiforov, said in a Facebook post.

  The driver of the other vehicle received first aid from Zelenskyy’s medical team and was hospitalized. Medics examined the president, who suffered no serious injuries and was not taken to a hospital, Nikiforov wrote. He did not specify what injuries Zelenskyy might have suffered.

  The spokesman added that the circumstances of the accident are under investigation.

  The Ukrainian president was accompanied by French celebrity Bernard Henri-Levy.

  Just left #Kryvyi Rih, home town of #Zelennskyy. I hear that #Moscow committed a new war crime. Bombing the dam. Flooding the city. And creating thousands of homeless people. For this, too, #Putin deserves to end his life in a jail. #StamdWithUkraine #SlavaUkraini pic.twitter.com/5fvnf6OZtP

  — Bernard-Henri Lévy (@BHL) September 14, 2022

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  Zelenskyy was late in posting the nightly video address that he has given during the war, possibly because of the car accident, the AP reported.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 09/14/2022 – 21:05

• Ted Cruz Calls To Defund "Biden's Army Of IRS Agents"
  Ted Cruz Calls To Defund “Biden’s Army Of IRS Agents”

  Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

  Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) has called on his Republican colleagues in Congress to block funding for what he described as “Biden’s army of IRS agents” that the GOP has warned would be used to target Americans earning less than $400,000 a year.

  

  Cruz made the remark in a Sept. 13 statement on social media, which came as President Joe Biden celebrated the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, which includes nearly $46 billion in new funding for IRS enforcement out of the $80 billion or so total funding boost to the tax agency.

  “Every single Republican should commit to not funding Biden’s army of IRS agents,” Cruz said in the statement.

  While Democrats have portrayed the Inflation Reduction Act as an anti-inflationary measure that would lower the cost of healthcare, prescription drugs, and energy, Republicans have argued it would lead to higher energy prices and aggressive IRS audits.

  

  The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) building is seen in Washington on Sept. 28, 2020. (Erin Scott/Reuters)

  In an interview on Fox News in which he elaborated on his position, Cruz argued that the extra funding for the tax agency should instead be used to stem the flow of illegal immigrants into the United States.

  “Every single Republican ought to say ‘we will not vote to fund these 87,000 new IRS agents, we’re not going to fund Biden’s army to harass Americans and we’re going to take that money and put it on our southern border to secure our border,‘” Cruz told the outlet.

  Republicans have argued that part of the IRS funding boost would be used to hire 87,000 new IRS agents and that small businesses and Americans making less than $400,000 would be targeted with tax audits.

  Higher Audit Rates?

  Seeking to counter that view, the Biden administration has insisted that people making less than $400,000 a year won’t see higher IRS audit rates.

  Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently insisted Republican claims that tax auditors will target lower- and middle-income Americans at higher rates are politically motivated falsehoods.

  “I direct that any additional resources—including any new personnel or auditors that are hired—shall not be used to increase the share of small business or households below the $400,000 threshold that are audited relative to historical levels,” Yellen said in an Aug. 10 letter to IRS Commissioner Charles Rettig.

  “This means that, contrary to the misinformation from opponents of this legislation, small business or households earning $400,000 per year or less will not see an increase in the chances that they are audited.”

  

  U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen speaks on the state of the U.S. economy during a press conference at the Department of Treasury in Washington, on July 28, 2022. (Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images)

  Rettig, too, has insisted that the tax agency would “absolutely not” be increasing audit scrutiny on small businesses or middle-income Americans “relative to recent years,” according to the IRS chief’s letter to members of the Senate on Aug. 4 (pdf).

  Yellen’s and Rettig’s position that audit rates wouldn’t rise for those making less than $400,000 has been countered by Rachel Greszler, senior research fellow at the Grover M. Hermann Center.

  In a recent op-ed for The Heritage Foundation, Greszler wrote that “despite the Biden administration’s claims, it’s almost certain that households making less than $400,000 a year would face increased audits” under the Inflation Reduction Act.

  “And despite estimates from official congressional scorekeepers that the Schumer-Manchin-Biden tax increase indeed would raise taxes on those Americans, the administration has doubled down on the claim,” she added.

  Congressional Republicans on Sept. 12 introduced a bill seeking to prevent the IRS from using the $80 billion cash infusion to squeeze more revenue from Americans earning less than $400,000 a year.

  “Democrats needed billions to pay for their progressive Green New Deal climate-change policies in their bill, and their gimmicks and games are going to worsen our economic tailspin and higher costs for taxpayers in all income levels,” Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.), co-sponsor of the bill, said in a statement.

  The bill (pdf) seeks to codify into law that none of the $80 billion in additional IRS funding may be used to increase audit rates on small businesses and taxpayers making under $400,000 a year.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 09/14/2022 – 21:00

• Anti-Green Blowback: T. Rowe Says "Increasing Difficult To Find Credible" ESG Bonds
  Anti-Green Blowback: T. Rowe Says “Increasing Difficult To Find Credible” ESG Bonds

  Some money managers are waking up to Wall Street’s ESG scam meant for green-minded investors who pretended to care about the environment but had found a quick and efficient way of fast-tracking gains. We’ve called this scam out during the ESG boom days early in the pandemic (see from Feb 2020 “Behold The “Green” Scam” and from April 2020 “The Fraud That Is ESG Strikes Again: Six Of Top 10 ESG Funds Underperform The S&P500“).

  Now Matt Lawton, T. Rowe Price Group Inc.’s sector portfolio manager in the Fixed Income Division, has come out in an interview, slamming sustainability-linked bonds, or SLBs. He said these green corporate bonds are examples of the most “egregious behavior” by Wall Street banks and companies who take advantage of skyrocketing demand for green investments. 

  “It’s becoming increasingly difficult to find credible SLBs,” Lawton said in an interview quoted by Bloomberg. “The banks are pitching these structures really hard so I definitely approach them with a healthy degree of skepticism.”

  Companies have been rushing to issue SLBs to exploit cheaper borrowing costs due to the high velocity of money flowing into ESG investment funds. Sales of the bonds soared to a record $110 billion in 2021, and Moody’s ESG Solutions predicts $150 billion by the end of the year. 

  

  The Baltimore-based investment management firm with $1.4 trillion of assets under management is the latest heavyweight in the financial community to speak out against SLBs. Last year Nuveen, a Chicago-based asset manager, said there were issues with the bonds and understanding of how the use of proceeds was deployed.

  “The banks are trying to structure them in such a way that is attractive for the issuer and right now investors are falling over themselves to buy these bonds. I don’t know how much discernment is actually happening on the investor side,” Lawson said. 

  Lawton noted the absurdity behind some SLBs. He pointed out UK-based grocery-store chain Tesco Plc’s green bonds that were priced in January 2021. The company raised 750 million euros in an 8.5-year bond to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 60% through 2025-26, though even before the deal, Tesco achieved a 50% reduction in emissions. 

  Lawton said the enforcement mechanisms behind SLB deals are lacking. Here are other examples of companies taking advantage of SLBs with call features that allow them to circumvent green goals via exercising call options:

  For example, Level 3 Communications Inc.’s $900 million SLB deal, which also priced in January 2021, can be repurchased from investors in January 2024, before any penalties for not meeting the sustainability targets even kick in. Level 3 was acquired in 2017 for $34 billion by communications service provider Lumen Technologies Inc. (formerly known as CenturyLink).

  Lumen’s global issues director Mark Molzen said in an emailed response that a call feature is common in these sort of instruments and a matter of financial prudence for any issuer to manage their interest rate exposure and balance sheet flexibility over time. 

  “The fact that we were able to successfully issue sustainability notes without having to forego these sort of basic features shows the natural demand for these sorts of instruments,” Molzen added.

  Chemicals firm Nobian Finance BV also sold an SLB that’s callable before the targeted goals, meaning the company could evade any potential penalty simply by exercising the option to repurchase the securities.

  In its emailed response, Nobian said that sustainability is one of its business priorities and the fact that it pays back debt at specific dates has “no impact on our commitment to reach our sustainability targets and our efforts to report transparently about our progress on an annual basis.” –Bloomberg 

  In June, the International Capital Market Association, which sets voluntary regulations in the ESG debt market, updated guidelines for issuing SLBs after it became evident transparency issues persist. 

  Lawton added the high demand for SLBs allows Wall Street banks to water down ESG targets for corporations:

  “The banker could theoretically say to their issuer, ‘Here are the bare minimum targets you need,’ and the market will accept it,” he added.

  ESG-related bond sales have been a boon for Wall Street, and many banks raked billions of dollars in advising and underwriting fees: It’s big business disguised as ‘saving the planet.’  

  Wall Street’s ESG craze is nothing more than a scam. Another investor, Vivek Ramaswamy, who authored the book “Woke, Inc.” has argued that business and politics should remain sequestered from one another and calls on corporations to slow spending on their energy transition and environmental plans. 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 09/14/2022 – 20:40

• Anthony Fauci: From AIDS To COVID-19, A Pharma Love Story
  Anthony Fauci: From AIDS To COVID-19, A Pharma Love Story

  Opinion authored by Lorenzo Puertas via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  After forty-eight years of leading the U.S. government’s responses to infectious diseases, Dr. Anthony Fauci recently announced his plans to retire at the end of the year. His story warrants a closer look for what it tells us about American politics, business, and health care.

  For decades before his recent fame, Fauci has been a medical researcher credited with important new understandings of the human immune response, particularly in HIV and AIDS. He also helped develop therapies for several previously fatal diseases, including a treatment of vasculitis which turned a 98 percent mortality rate into a 93 percent survival rate.

  For most of his career, he has been the world’s most-cited researcher on AIDS and infectious diseases. He has received many awards, including the Presidential Medal of Freedom.

  Ironically, Fauci has also presided over a decades-long decline in the overall health of American citizens. During his time in public health, a great number of chronic illnesses have become commonplace. Food allergies, autoimmune diseases, and cancer now affect more than half of American children. Autism, once rare, now affects 1 in 44 children.

  

  A Lifetime in Public Health

  Anthony Fauci was born in Brooklyn in 1940, the son of a pharmacist. Pharmacy was the family business, and both his mother and sister worked in his father’s shop beneath their apartment. As a young man, Fauci studied medicine at Cornell University, graduating first in his class. After his residency in 1966, he took a research job at the National Institutes of Health (NIH), and he has worked for the U.S. government ever since.

  In his five decades in public health, Fauci has advised every President since Ronald Reagan. Since 1984 he has been the head of the National Institute for Allergies and Infectious Disease (NIAID), one of 27 institutes within the NIH, given the mission of researching and preventing infectious, immunologic, and allergic diseases.

  For many Americans, Fauci has been the trusted face of the U.S. government response to the pandemic. It was his confident explanations, both to the public and to policymakers, which led to the use of lockdowns, business closures, masking, and vaccines as the response to the virus.

  His many critics see a different Anthony Fauci—a bureaucrat who seems to have made a career of putting politics and corporate profits above public health.

  “Dr. Fauci has shaped the American medical world,” said Mary Holland, President of Children’s Health Defense, in an interview with The Epoch Times. “He’s moved American health institutions, NIH in particular, to a very intertwined relationship with the pharmaceutical industry.”

  Holland’s nonprofit organization, chaired by Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., has been a prominent critic of Dr. Fauci’s policies—particularly the mass vaccination of American citizens.

  Censorship and Control

  “Dr. Fauci and his NIAID have played a very dark role in COVID,” Holland said. “The level of propaganda we have lived through in the last two years is unprecedented in my lifetime. I lived in the Soviet Union after law school, fighting for human rights and working against government propaganda and censorship. And now we are living through that in the United States.”

  According to Holland, Fauci is the key player in the U.S. government’s efforts to control all information relating to the pandemic and the virus. “The documents are coming out that show that the government has been censoring us, suppressing factual information that relate to this virus and the pandemic.”

  Even criticism of Fauci has been censored, says Holland. “Robert Kennedy’s new book, ‘The Real Anthony Fauci’ has been suppressed at every turn,” she said. The 2021 book takes a hard look at Fauci’s career and his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Kennedy has found it almost impossible to promote his book.

  “No major publication in the country would review the book,” said Holland. “The New York Times would not include it on their bestseller list, and he [Kennedy] was not invited on any major media platform, except for Tucker Carlson and The Epoch Times. The level of censorship has been astonishing.”

  Kennedy isn’t the only one censored. For two years, mainstream media outlets have ignored the scientists who have questioned Fauci’s views. These scientists have seen their ideas rejected (or later retracted) by medical journals, denounced by government officials, and censored by social media platforms.

  Fauci has been candid about his suppression of dissent. “Attacks on me, quite frankly, are attacks on science,” Fauci told CNBC in a June 2021 interview.

  In May, the attorneys general for Missouri and Louisiana filed a lawsuit against President Joe Biden and other White House officials, accusing them of violating the First Amendment by colluding with social media giants to suppress information about the pandemic. According to recently released court documents, the Biden administration worked so closely with social media that Facebook head Mark Zuckerberg gave Fauci his personal phone number when the crackdown on COVID-19 information began.

  But why this need for control? What information needed to be covered up? According to Holland, it’s the role that Fauci may have played in creating, and prolonging, this pandemic.

  

  “By all appearances they have tried to cover up their role in funding lethal gain of function research in China,” said Holland. “They have also suppressed the use of lifesaving early treatments like ivermectin and hydroxycholoroquine, and they have suppressed valuable research into preventive measures that could have saved countless lives.”

  The result, says Holland and other critics, is a dark period in American history.

  Fauci’s Pandemic?

  Starting in early 2020, Americans faced unprecedented government intrusion in their lives. Business and school closures, lockdowns, mask mandates—and the man behind these government policies has been Anthony Fauci. In countless interviews and press conferences, Fauci positioned himself as the one true source of correct COVID-19 information and guidance.

  Emergency orders at the federal, state, and local levels were based on Fauci’s opinions. Fauci himself took credit for the policy of lockdowns, saying in October 2020, “I recommended to the president that we shut the country down. That was a very difficult decision because I knew it would have very serious economic consequences.”

  “Anthony Fauci is clearly at the very center of all things COVID,” Holland said. “And he has been in charge of controlling the information about the pandemic.”

  “From the very beginning, when many scientists were pointing to a lab origin for this virus,” said Holland, “Anthony Fauci put a stop to that important debate.” Despite the discovery of NIAID’s funding of gain-of-function research on coronaviruses at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, Fauci continues to say that the virus likely has a natural origin.

  A similar thing happened with scientific opposition to Fauci’s policies. The Great Barrington Declaration, written in October 2020 and signed by over 60,000 doctors and scientists, opposed lockdowns and advocated a new policy of protecting only the most vulnerable populations while allowing the rest to live freely and develop natural immunity.

  Fauci called the Declaration “ridiculous” and “very dangerous,” and led a campaign to attack the authors and signatories, instead of their ideas.

  “It has been remarkable,” Holland said, “to see one of the most influential figures in American life purposely suppressing truthful information—about a lab leak, about scientists who said there should be no lockdowns, about the value of masks and the risks of vaccines.”

  “In the COVID response we saw extraordinary corruption,” said Holland. “The origin of the virus was covered up. Important treatments were suppressed. And vaccines were authorized, and mandated, on inadequate science.”

  

  Suppression of Cures

  One of the most astonishing aspects of Fauci’s leadership during the pandemic has been his strong opposition to any potential treatment. In two years, neither Fauci nor any U.S. government agency has published a single treatment protocol for COVID-19 patients.

  In contrast, China had a treatment protocol online by mid-March of 2020. The result of an organized collection of data from hundreds of hospitals treating thousands of patients, the Chinese protocol included simple solutions like saline nasal lavage and antiseptic mouthwash to reduce viral loads, and cheap drugs like zinc, Pepcid, chloroquine, and antibiotics.

  As of this writing, the United States still has no official treatment protocol. And no protocols have been proposed by any major American university or research hospital. Yet every American doctor who has tried to publish one has been quickly censored and ridiculed.

  Dr. Peter McCullough knows this firsthand. The author of the protocol that became the most downloaded medical paper of 2020, McCullough was among the first American doctors to develop, test, and publish a successful treatment protocol, resulting in an 85 percent reduction in hospitalizations and death among his patients.

  A medical doctor and author of over 600 peer-reviewed research articles, McCullough at first had no thought of developing his own treatment plan. But he soon became alarmed at the government’s failure to provide treatment advice to America’s doctors.

  By May 2020, McCullough began taking action. He quickly set up a network of doctors to share information about effective treatments—something Fauci never did.

  For his efforts, he found himself sued by Baylor University, had his Wikipedia page re-written to label him a source of “COVID misinformation”, and had his reputation attacked in print and online. All while major medical institutions did nothing to find a treatment.

  “They didn’t even try,” McCullough is quoted as saying in “The Real Anthony Fauci.” “Harvard, John Hopkins, Duke, you name it. There wasn’t an ounce of original research coming out of America to fight COVID—other than vaccines.”

  Across the country, Dr. Pierre Kory was fighting the same battle. The co-founder of the Front Line COVID-19 Critical Care Alliance (FLCCC), Kory and a team of doctors were quickly developing their own protocol and putting it online. Like McCullough, Kory had discovered the effectiveness of ivermectin, hydroxycholoroquine, and a number of other inexpensive and easily available drugs.

  Kory testified twice to the U.S. Senate explaining the success of his treatment protocol. He also submitted a formal paper to the NIH, which quickly dismissed the results as “insufficient data” lacking proper clinical trials. Another research paper explaining the protocol was retracted by the journal Frontiers in Pharmacology due to “unsupported claims”.

  “The efficacy of some of these drugs… is almost miraculous. We could have stopped the pandemic in its tracks in the Spring of 2020,” said Kory. “Yet Dr. Fauci refused to promote any of these interventions. It’s not just that he made no effort to find effective off-the-shelf cures—he aggressively suppressed them.”

  “You had Birx, Fauci, and Redfield doing press conferences every day,” Kory said in an interview. “And not one of them ever treated a COVID patient or worked in an emergency room or ICU. They knew nothing.”

  “Dr. Fauci’s suppression of early treatments,” said Kory, “will go down in history as having caused the death of half a million Americans.”

  But why would Anthony Fauci suppress effective treatments? Why attack doctors trying to find a solution? According to Robert Kennedy, it might be because safe and effective treatments for COVID-19 would make the new vaccines unnecessary.

  Successful treatments aren’t just a marketing challenge for the vaccine manufacturers—they’re a legal obstacle, too. Once a successful treatment for COVID-19 is established, it becomes much less likely that the FDA will grant Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) to new vaccines and new drugs. Under federal law, there must be no approved alternative way of treating or preventing a disease before authorizing an EUA.

  The EUA under which the experimental vaccines were given to millions of Americans would never have been granted if COVID-19 was known to be an easily treatable disease.

  In “The Real Anthony Fauci”, Robert Kennedy writes, “His bizarre and inexplicable actions give credence to the suspicions held by many Americans that Dr. Fauci is working to prolong the epidemic in order to impose expensive patented drugs and vaccines on a captive population.”

  AIDS

  COVID-19 isn’t the first time that Anthony Fauci has been accused of using public policy to benefit big pharma corporations. Forty years ago, at the height of the AIDS crisis in America, many AIDS activists called Anthony Fauci a sellout to the drug companies.

  “You are responsible for all government funded AIDS treatment research,” said activist Larry Kramer in an open letter to Fauci in the San Francsico Examiner in 1988. “You are part of a government bureaucracy that values thriving pharmaceutical company entrepreneurism over the health of people with HIV.”

  Kramer’s criticism: instead of focusing on improving patients’ health, Fauci’s only answer to AIDS was the development of new drugs. “How long will it take you to start focusing on the immune system, how to boost it and how to prevent the opportunistic infections that are killing people with AIDS? Still, you give your blessing to clinical trials of highly profitable toxins…”

  “You are a pill-pushing pimp that cooperates with drug companies in forcing dangerous concoctions down the throats of a desperate community,” wrote Kramer. “AIDS drugs are not sold to help people, they are sold to make a profit.”

  

  Conflicts of Interest

  Despite the criticism Fauci endured, the AIDS crisis produced the most important opportunity of his career: using NIAID to develop, and profit from, new drugs. His collaboration with pharmaceutical companies quickly grew into a billion-dollar business.

  The 1980 Bayh-Dole Act allowed NIAID and government scientists like Fauci to directly profit from drug development. Under the law, NIAID was now allowed to file patents on the new drugs that their research was creating, and then license those drug patents back to pharmaceutical companies. Individual government scientists could also put their names on patents and collect royalties.

  This created a new income stream for Anthony Fauci: royalties on the sales of all drugs developed through NIAID-funded research. Drug development very quickly became the focus of Fauci’s NIAID, and millions of dollars in royalties started to pour in.

  According to a 2006 investigation by the Associated Press, NIH and NIAID were concealing millions of dollars in royalties paid not just to the agencies, but to individual officials including Fauci, with little regard for the ethical and legal conflicts of interest. This information was not made public until the Associated Press obtained the information under the Freedom of Information Act.

  In early 2022, OpenTheBooks.com, a government watchdog nonprofit, reported over 22,0000 royalty payments totaling nearly $134 million in royalty payments from pharma companies to the NIH and directly to over 1,600 NIH scientists. These payments occurred between 2009 and 2014. Data from 2015 onward is not yet available.

  As a co-owner of drug and vaccine patents, Fauci himself receives royalty payments, including from the development of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine. The amount of these payments has not been made public.

  It is perhaps no coincidence then, that the Biden administration’s COVID-19 plan, “The Path out of the Pandemic”, consists of only one strategy: more government vaccination mandates.

  “Think about it,” said Children’s Health Defense president Mary Holland. “NIAID is a joint venture partner with Moderna! How can the government be a joint venture partner with a for-profit corporation? And then set public policy to force the use of that product? The conflict of interest is astounding.”

  Experiments in New York

  Drug development for AIDS created a little-known episode in Fauci’s career. Starting in 1985, the NIAID provided funding for clinical drug trials on HIV-positive children, studies which included children in the New York foster care system.

  According to a 2009 report by the Vera Institute of Justice, 25 of the children involved in these experiments died, though there is no evidence that they died as a direct result of the experiments.

  “NIAID under Fauci exploited the most vulnerable in our society to develop new drugs,” said Holland. “These were poor children, without parents, many of whom were already very sick. Episodes like this, make one genuinely recall other medical atrocities in history, experiments conducted on vulnerable people without proper informed consent.”

  Experiments in Africa

  Experimentation on humans has been a key part of Fauci’s role in new drug and vaccine development, especially in Africa in the search for a solution to AIDS.

  Since the mid-1990s Fauci has been the chief promoter of the quest for an HIV vaccine. Under Fauci’s advice, every American president since Clinton has pledged billions of taxpayer dollars to this project—foreign aid diverted away from food and infrastructure to vaccine manufacturers and their research projects, in the name of eradicating AIDS in Africa.

  In early 2000, Fauci and Bill Gates formed a unique partnership to control this flow of money. By leveraging the research funding available through Fauci’s NIAID, Bill Gates’ celebrity philanthropy, the tragedy of AIDS, and the massive wealth of pharmaceutical companies, Fauci and Gates acquired tremendous influence over health policy around the world.

  This Fauci-Gates partnership is detailed in a 2008 report in the Journal of European Molecular Biology, provocatively titled “The Gates Foundation: How Sixty Billion Dollars and One Famous Person Can Affect Spending and Research Focus of Public Agencies”.

  As many human rights organizations have pointed out, Fauci and Gates have spent decades profiting from the use of Africans as test subjects for experimental drugs that often do great harm. And there still is no vaccine for HIV.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 09/14/2022 – 20:20

• Ethereum's 'Merge' Will Happen Tonight
  Ethereum’s ‘Merge’ Will Happen Tonight

  The much-anticipated ‘Merge’ is upon us…

  Based on the latest countdown, Ethereum users expect the massive network upgrade to begin around 10pm PST, with the second-largest crypto is set to shift to a more environmentally friendly model that may help attract investors who opine that bitcoin’s model uses too much electricity.

  The Ethereum blockchain will transition away from its energy-intensive consensus mechanism Proof-of-Work as its execution layer merges with the new Proof-od-Stake consensus layer known as the Beacon Chain.

  The so-called ‘Merge’ is like upgrading a rocket ship after its launch: “It is an epic engineering feat.”

  

  As Cointelegraph previously reported the Merge will see ETH, the native currency of the Ethereum ecosystem, remain once the mainnet joins the Beacon Chain.

  It is worth noting that some PoW miners that previously mined blocks and maintained the execution layer have indicated that they will continue to do so.

  The PoS-powered Ethereum blockchain will continue to use ETH after the Merge, while another hypothetical PoW Ethereum network, dubbed ETHPOW, could fork away with the creation of an ETHW token.

  The last 24 hours or so – thanks in large part to yesterday’s CPI-charged chaos – Ethereum has traded lower, but stabilized today around $1600…

  

  As WSJ reminds, Bitcoin pioneered the proof-of-work model where a global, decentralized network of computers processes transactions and adds them to the blockchain by generating random numbers in hopes of finding the right combination to unlock formulas.

  The miners receive newly minted bitcoins as rewards.

  

  In the proof-of-stake model Ethereum is moving to, validators put their crypto holdings on the line to verify transactions.

  The “staked” ether tokens act as collateral that can be destroyed or confiscated if the validators behave dishonestly.

  The validators accrue interest payments on their staked assets as a reward.

  For example, staking on the ethereum blockchain prior to the merge would fetch a 4.1% annual percentage rate, according to the Ethereum Foundation.

  Simply put, ethereum’s big makeover means it will take a lot less energy to verify transactions, slashing energy consumption by more than 99% will also go a long way toward lowering the barrier to entry for institutional investors, who have been battling the optics of contributing to the climate crisis.

  One River’s Sebastian Dae noted earlier in the week that, it’ll be boring if all goes according to plan, nothing like the excitement of watching the force of a rocket launch. Alas, the dream of every successful layer 1 is precisely that – to be a boring, secure platform that is eventually taken for granted, invisible to the users who demand more from their tools. The Merge is one step closer to that reality.

  The actual process is expected to take about 12 minutes, during which time about 150 developers will be on high alert to address any potential hitches.

  As Decrypt writes, the merge was originally called “Ethereum 2.0,” but that name was retired in favor of rhyming names for each step: merge, surge, verge, purge, and splurge.

  The Ethereum Foundation is holding its own livestream to watch the transition from the current ‘proof-of-work’ network to its new ‘proof-of-stake’ paradigm…

  Proof-of-Work and Proof-of-Stake are arguably the best-known consensus mechanisms – but new ones are continually emerging.

  PoW blockchains have long dominated the cryptocurrency landscape, with both Bitcoin and Ethereum using this model. This means miners are responsible for securing the network and validating transactions — and they get rewarded with new coins as a result.

  However, a common criticism surrounding Proof-of-Work relates to how much energy it uses, and the impact such blockchains have on the environment. Miners need to use vast amounts of computing power to solve arbitrary mathematical equations. More advanced hardware has been required as the industry matured, with electricity usage surging too. 

  This has led Proof-of-Stake to be regarded as a more eco-friendly approach. Miners are replaced by validators — nodes that have a financial stake in the smooth running of the network. While proponents claim this can use 99% less energy than PoW, some fear PoS can lead to greater levels of centralization and censorship. Ethereum is currently in the process of moving to this consensus mechanism during The Merge — and it’ll be interesting to see how this high-stakes experiment pans out.

  A new approach is known as Published Proof-of-Contribution, otherwise known as PPoC for short. Here, every single participant has a role to play in ensuring the ecosystem is decentralized, democratic and well-governed.

  According to one estimate on the Ethereum Foundation’s blog, the merge will result in a reduction of at least 99.95% in total energy use, but not everyone is clear on the benefits.

  “There are some misconceptions among the wider public around what kind of benefits the Merge is going to bring,” Henry Elder, Head of DeFi at digital asset management firm Wave Financial, told Decrypt.

  “It’s not going to make Ethereum faster, more scalable and cheaper. It’s just Ethereum that goes from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake.”

  Additionally, MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor shared a few high level thoughts on Bitcoin Mining & the Environment…

  1.  Bitcoin Energy Utilization: Bitcoin runs on stranded, excess energy, generated at the edge of the grid, in places where there is no other demand, at times when no one else needs the electricity.  Retail & commercial consumers of electricity in major population areas pay 5-10x more per kwH (10-20 cents per kwH) than bitcoin miners, who should be thought of as wholesale consumers of energy (normally budgeting 2-3 cents per kwH). The world produces more energy than it needs, and approximately a third of this energy is wasted. The last 15 basis points of energy power the entire Bitcoin Network – this is the least valued, cheapest margin of energy left after 99.85% of the energy in the world is allocated to other uses.

  2. Bitcoin vs. Other Industries: Bitcoin mining is the most efficient, cleanest industrial use of electricity, and is improving its energy efficiency at the fastest rate across any major industry.  Our metrics show ~59.5% of energy for bitcoin mining comes from sustainable sources and energy efficiency improved 46% YoY.  No other industry comes close (consider planes, trains, automobiles, healthcare, banking, construction, precious metals, etc.).  The bitcoin network keeps getting more energy efficient because of the relentless improvement in the semiconductors (SHA-256 ASICs) that power the bitcoin mining centers, combined with the halving of bitcoin mining rewards every four years that is built into the protocol. This results in a consistent 18-36% improvement year after year in energy efficiency. More details on this are included in the BMC Presentation.

  3. Bitcoin Value Creation & Energy Intensity: Approximately $4-5 billion in electricity is used to power & secure a network that is worth $420 billion as of today, and settles $12 billion per day ($4 trillion per year).  The value of the output is 100x the cost of the energy input.  This makes Bitcoin far less energy intensive than Google, Netflix, or Facebook, and 1-2 orders of magnitude less energy intensive than traditional 20th century industries like airlines, logistics, retail, hospitality, & agriculture.

  4. Bitcoin vs. Other Cryptos: The only proven technique for creating a digital commodity is Proof of Work (bitcoin mining) deployed in a fair, equitable fashion (i.e. no pre-mine, no ICO, no controlling foundation, no primary software development team, no series of forced hard fork upgrades that materially change the monetary protocol). If we remove the dedicated hardware (SHA-256 ASICs) and the dedicated energy that powers those mining rigs, we are left with a network secured by proprietary software running on generic computers.  That places all security & control of the network in the hands of a small group of software developers, who must create virtual machines doing virtual work with virtual energy in a virtual world to create virtual security. All attempts to date have resulted in a digital asset that meets the definition of an investment contract (i.e. digital security, not digital commodity). They all pass the Howie test and therefore look more like equities than commodities. 

  Regulators & legal experts have noted on many occasions that Proof of Stake networks are likely securities, not commodities, and we can expect them to be treated as such over time.  PoS Crypto Securities may be appropriate for certain applications, but they are not suitable to serve as global, open, fair money or a global open settlement network.  Therefore, it makes no sense to compare Proof of Stake networks to Bitcoin. The creation of a digital commodity without an issuer that serves as “digital gold” is an innovation (we have accomplished this only once in the history of the world with Bitcoin). The creation of a digital security or digital coupon on a shared database is utterly ordinary (it has been done 20,000 times in the crypto world, and 100,000+ times in the traditional world). 

  5. Bitcoin & Carbon Emissions: 99.92% of carbon emissions in the world are due to industrial uses of energy other than bitcoin mining.  Bitcoin mining is neither the problem nor the solution to the challenge of reducing carbon emissions.  It is in fact a rounding error and would hardly be noticed if it were not for the competitive guerrilla marketing activities of other crypto promoters & lobbyists that seek to focus negative attention on Proof of Work mining in order to distract regulators, politicians, & the general public from the inconvenient truth that Proof of Stake crypto assets are generally unregistered securities trading on unregulated exchanges to the detriment of the retail investing public. 

  6. Bitcoin & Environmental Benefits: There is an increasing awareness that Bitcoin is quite beneficial to the environment because it can be deployed to monetize stranded natural gas or methane gas energy sources.  Methane gas emissions’ curtailment is particularly compelling and Dan Batten (https://batcoinz.com/) has written some impressive papers on this subject.  It has also become clear that energy grids that rely primarily on sustainable power sources like wind, hydro, & solar can be unreliable at times due to lack of water, sunlight, or wind.  In this case, they need to be paired with a large electricity consumer like a bitcoin miner in order to develop grid resilience & finance the buildout of additional capacity necessary to responsibly power major industrial/population centers.  The recent example of major Bitcoin energy curtailment on the ERCOT grid in Texas is an example of the benefits of bitcoin mining to sustainable power providers.  No other industrial energy consumer is so well suited to monetize excess power as well as curtail flexibly during periods of energy shortfall & production volatility. 

  7. Bitcoin & Global Energy: Bitcoin maximalists believe that Bitcoin is an instrument of economic empowerment for 8 billion people around the world. This is supported by the ability of a bitcoin miner to monetize any power source, anywhere, anytime, at any scale.  Bitcoin mining can bring a clean, profitable and modern industry that generates hard currency to a remote location in the developing world, connected only via satellite link. All that is needed is some excess electricity generated from a waterfall, geothermal source, or miscellaneous excess energy deposit. Google, Netflix, and Apple won’t be setting up data centers in Central Africa that export services to their wealthy western clients anytime soon due to constraints on bandwidth, privacy, & requirements for consistent power flow, but bitcoin miners are not hampered by these constraints.  They can utilize erratic power supplies with low bandwidth in remote locations and generate valuable bitcoin without prejudice, just as if they were in a suburb of NYC, LA, or SF.  Even now, Bitcoin miners are everywhere and will continue to spread (though Africa, Asia, South America, etc.) wherever there is excess energy and anyone with aspirations for a better life.  Bitcoin is an egalitarian financial asset offering financial inclusion to all, and bitcoin mining is an egalitarian technology industry offering commercial inclusion to anyone with the energy & engineering capability to operate a mining center. 

  Finally, we note that the average Ethereum user and ETH holder need not worry about losing their funds or making any changes to preferred wallets before the Merge. As the entire history of the Ethereum blockchain is carried across in the transition – all funds in wallets are still accessible and safe.

  Most importantly – be wary of scams. Cointelegraph has compiled a list of the three most prominent ways malicious actors are trying to prey on the Merge event. Fraudulent staking pools, upgrade scams, and fake airdrops are being touted. You do not need to upgrade your wallet or send your ETH to receive new tokens.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 09/14/2022 – 20:00

• 40% Of Americans Believe CCP Considers Itself At War With US: Poll
  40% Of Americans Believe CCP Considers Itself At War With US: Poll

  Authored by Andrew Thornebrooke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  An increasing number of Americans believe that China’s communist regime considers itself to be at war with the United States, according to the results of a new national survey.

  

  Some 40 percent of likely U.S. voters said they think the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which rules China as a single-party state, considers itself to be at war with the United States. Less than 26 percent said the CCP doesn’t consider itself at war with the United States, while more than 34 percent were unsure.

  The survey, conducted by nonprofit Convention of States Action and polling company Trafalgar Group from Sept. 2 to Sept. 5, polled more than 1,000 likely midterm voters across the political spectrum. The poll had a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.

  Notably, the polling also revealed a stark partisan divide in opinion about the seriousness of the CCP threat.

  Slightly less than 60 percent of Republicans believed that the CCP considers itself to be at war with the United States, while less than 24 percent of Democrats said the same.

  Regardless of affiliation, however, more Americans were unsure of the veracity of the claim than were confident that it’s untrue.

  Regarding the U.S. response to the perceived threat, 67 percent of all respondents said they don’t believe the U.S. government considers itself to be at war with China.

  In all, less than 9 percent believed that the United States considers itself to be at war with China, although Democrats were more than twice as likely to believe such a thing as Republicans.

  “These are stunning results,” Mark Meckler, president of the Convention of States Action, said in a statement to The Epoch Times. “Americans clearly see that the Chinese Communist Party considers itself at war with the United States, and yet they acknowledge that the U.S. government doesn’t appear to have a clue this is the case.”

  Congressional Republicans have long lambasted the Biden administration for a perceived failure to adequately respond to CCP aggression. The results of the survey appear to suggest that many Americans are at least sympathetic to the view that U.S. leadership isn’t meeting the regime’s provocations in kind.

  Over the past decade, the CCP has led a widespread effort to undermine U.S. institutions. That campaign has included a plot to attack a U.S. Army veteran running for office, the arson of sculptures critical of the regime, and the stalking and intimidation of a U.S. Olympian whose father had spoken out against the regime.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 09/14/2022 – 19:40

• US Navy Quietly Cancels Vaccine Requirement Order For SEALs
  US Navy Quietly Cancels Vaccine Requirement Order For SEALs

  The US Navy quietly rolled back Trident Order #12, an order denying religious exemptions for covid vaccinations, a few months after an injunction was issued by the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals in early 2022 as part of an ongoing lawsuit brought by First Liberty Institute.  The suit was initiated on behalf of 35 active-duty SEALS and three reservists seeking exemptions to the mandate due to the possibility of covid vaccines being developed using cells and tissues from aborted fetuses. 

  This information has only become publicly available after a new filing in the case this week.  Trident Order #12 made any non-compliant SEALS and other troops impossible to deploy and designated them as medically disqualified.  This development runs in tandem with a growing trend among government institutions; they back away from their original draconian mandates but in a manner that reduces media exposure and avoids any admission that the mandates are unconstitutional.

  

  A communication order was circulated by the Navy on May 23 with the subject: “NSWC CLOSEOUT TO TRIDENT ORDER #12 – MANDATORY VACCINATION FOR COVID-19.” NSWC refers to the Naval Special Warfare Command:

  “This order rescinds reference A,” it states, referring to “Ref A” as “Trident Order #12 on COVID-19 Vaccinations.”

  The May 23 communication order also said Navy commands “will continue to follow guidance, as appropriate, regarding COVID-19 vaccination, accommodation requests, and mitigation measures.”

  The Navy along with every other branch of the US military is facing a severe recruitment crisis, with a record low number of Americans eligible to serve.  In particular, far too many potential recruits are unable to meet the physical requirements to complete basic training.  This has led to discussions on lowering standards, but even this would not solve low recruitment numbers for special operations and SEALS, which require highly capable candidates regardless.

  An implosion in recruitment may have partially contributed to the Navy’s abandonment of vax restrictions, along with the flood of scientific evidence showing that the vaccines make very little difference in immunity and mortality, especially for young and fit individuals, when compared to natural immunity.  Numerous studies show superior immunity among unvaxxed people that have already had covid.

  The US government continues to refuse to acknowledge natural immunity as an acceptable status for the military or federal employees, though their attempts to enforce proof of vaccination (vaccine passports) have all but failed anyway.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 09/14/2022 – 19:20

• China Back Among Top 10 Countries In Bitcoin-Usage Despite Ban
  China Back Among Top 10 Countries In Bitcoin-Usage Despite Ban

  Authored by Shawn Amick via BitcoinMagazine.com,

  • China is back among the countries with the highest level of bitcoin and cryptocurrency adoption in the world.

  • The findings come from a new Chainalysis report that details the adoption levels of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies per country.

  • Vietnam leads the world in overall adoption, while India has the highest number of centralized purchases.

  Blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis has released its 2022 Global Cryptocurrency Adoption Index detailing global usage of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies with a unique ranking formula.

  

  The report’s most staggering bits of information show that, despite last year’s ban, China has returned to rank among the top 10 countries in the world for adoption. Additionally, Vietnam is still ranked first and the U.S. has risen to fifth when it was previously ranked eighth in 2021.

  

  Top 10 countries in Chainalysis’ Global Crypto Adoption Index. (Table/Chainalysis)

  However, when one looks at this report it becomes far more interesting after realizing how Chainalysis ranks adoption.

  Five separate indexes cumulatively provide the overall index score of each country, and the indexes allow for a weighted calculation based on the percentage of income spent to acquire bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.

  Thus, a country with the highest volume accumulated won’t rank as the highest ranking for adoption because it most likely represents a smaller portion of the population’s overall income.

  Additionally, a country can have massive amounts of accumulation but rarely participate in the peer-to-peer (P2P) transfer of value, which could lower a country’s rank. This happens to be the case for India who ranks number one in all metrics, except for P2P transfers which led to the country being ranked fourth globally.

  Therefore, accounting for a country’s use of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies as not only a store-of-value, but as a medium of exchange, paints a more complete picture regarding adoption. This also accounts for emerging markets making up the bulk of the list as they participate in more P2P transactions.

  The report concluded by detailing how adoption is still well above 2020 bull market levels and even though markets have experienced bearish momentum, “Bear markets can’t wipe out bull market adoption.”

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 09/14/2022 – 19:00

• Here's Why Toyota Isn't Going All-In On Electric Vehicles
  Here’s Why Toyota Isn’t Going All-In On Electric Vehicles

  While many automakers have committed billions of dollars in recent years to develop all-electric vehicles, Toyota has approached the technology with far more caution – opting instead to continue investing in a portfolio of hybrid “electrified” vehicles, such as the Prius.

  

  And while the Japanese automaker was a darling of US environmentalists and ‘eco-conscious’ consumers when the Prius came out two decades ago, given that it was among the cleanest and most fuel-efficient vehicles ever produced – Toyota has fallen out of favor with the ‘green’ crowd thanks to its hesitancy to jump into the fray with fully electric vehicles.

  “The fact is: a hybrid today is not green technology. The Prius hybrid runs on a pollution-emitting combustion engine found in any gas-powered car,” said Katherine García, director of the Sierra Club’s Clean Transportation for All campaign, in a recent blog post.

  As CNBC notes, Greenpeace has now ranked Toyota at the bottom of a list of 10 automakers’ efforts to ‘decarbonize,’ citing slow progress in its supply chain and sales of zero-emission vehicles, which are less than 1% of Toyota’s sales.

  While automakers such as General Motors, Volkswagen and others vowed to invest billions of dollars in recent years to develop all-electric vehicles that don’t require gas-powered engines like the Prius, Toyota lagged, only more recently announcing similar investments. It also continues to invest in a portfolio of “electrified” vehicles – ranging from traditional hybrids like the Prius to its recently launched, yet underwhelming, bZ4X electric crossover. -CNBC

  Toyota execs say the strategy is appropriate given the lack of EV-supporting infrastructure around the world, as well as the high cost of the vehicles.

  “For as much as people want to talk about EVs, the marketplace isn’t mature enough and ready enough … at the level we would need to have mass movement,” said Jack Hollis, executive vice president of sales at Toyota Motor North America, during an August virtual meeting.

  

  That said, Toyota announced in December a $28 billion investment (4 trillion yen) in a lineup of 30 battery-powered electric vehicles by 2030, and will continue to invest in hybrids such as the Prius and other potential models.

  “We want to provide each person with a way that they can contribute the most to solving climate change. And we know that that answer is not to treat everybody the same way,” said Gill Pratt, Toyota chief scientist and CEO of the Toyota Research Institute, during a media event last month in Michigan.

  Meanwhile, the company announced several weeks ago that it would allocate $5.6 billion for hybrid and all-electric battery production in Japan and the US as part of the aforementioned 2030 plan.

  And while this may seem like a significant amount of money, which it is, it’s dwarfed by commitments from competitors such as GM and VW – the former of which has announced it will exclusively offer “zero-emission” EVs by 2035. Other automakers have vowed to set targets for at least 50% of their vehicles sold in North America to be all electric.

  Toyota, meanwhile, has a goal to sell 3.5 million electric vehicles per year by 2030 – over 1/3 of current sales, which include around 1 million units from its Lexus brand, which will exclusively offer EVs in Europe, North America and Chiny by then.

  “I think they’re hedging their bets,” said Paul Waatti, manager of industry analysis at AutoPacific. “From a global perspective, a lot of markets are moving at different paces. U.S. is slower than Europe and China in EV adoption but there are other markets where there’s no infrastructure at all. To take a varied approach in powertrains makes sense for a global automaker.”

  According to Toyota, electric vehicles are one solution, not the solution, for the company’s carbon-neutral goals.

  “In the distant future, I’m not investing assuming that battery electrics are 100% of the market. I just don’t see it,” said Jim Adler, founding managing director Toyota Ventures. “It really will be a mixed market.”

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 09/14/2022 – 18:40

• DOJ Official Who Exposed Themselves, 'Sexually Assaulted Civilian' Won't Be Prosecuted: IG
  DOJ Official Who Exposed Themselves, ‘Sexually Assaulted Civilian’ Won’t Be Prosecuted: IG

  Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  The Department of Justice (DOJ) Inspector General’s Office won’t prosecute an assistant U.S. attorney who engaged in sexual misconduct with a civilian on a date.

  

  The office stated (pdf) on Sept. 12 that an investigation had determined the unnamed assistant U.S. attorney exposed themselves in a public place and then “sexually assaulted a civilian while on a date,” which it noted was “in violation of state law and federal regulations governing off-duty conduct.”

  After an investigation, the office also found that the assistant U.S. attorney “lacked candor in discussing” the incident with investigators.

  “Criminal prosecution of the [assistant U.S. attorney] was declined,” the report reads.

  The name of the assistant U.S. attorney wasn’t disclosed, and it’s unclear if the person still works as an assistant U.S. attorney.

  The Inspector General’s Office noted that it sent the Executive Office for the U.S. Attorneys and DOJ Office of Professional Responsibility its report. Assistant U.S. attorneys work for the various U.S. attorneys’ offices, which prosecute federal crimes around the country.

  “Unless otherwise noted, the [Inspector General’s Office] applies the preponderance of the evidence standard in determining whether Department of Justice personnel have committed misconduct,” the Inspector General’s Office stated.

  Another Incident

  Also on Sept. 12, the DOJ Inspector General’s Office released a separate report stating that an unidentified assistant U.S. attorney (AUSA) abused their position after being stopped by police while intoxicated.

  “The OIG [Office of Inspector General] investigation found that the AUSA had engaged in misuse of position when referring to the AUSA’s title in an attempt to influence local police officers during a traffic stop,” the report (pdf) reads. “The OIG investigation also found that the AUSA engaged in conduct that was prejudicial to the government, including ignoring instructions, cursing at officers, and kicking the door of the patrol vehicle, in violation of federal ethics regulations.”

  The investigation also found that the assistant U.S. attorney “had been driving a personal vehicle while under the influence of alcohol,” according to the report.

  After completing the investigation, the office handed its report to the Office of Professional Responsibility “for appropriate action,” the report states.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 09/14/2022 – 18:20

• China Issues Highest Typhoon Warning As Storm Approaches World's Largest Container Ports
  China Issues Highest Typhoon Warning As Storm Approaches World’s Largest Container Ports

  China issued the highest tropical cyclone warning on Wednesday as Typhoon Muifa barreled toward Shanghai as Asia’s largest ports are at a standstill. 

  Chinese state media said Muifa is expected to make landfall between the cities of Wenling and Zhoushan on Wednesday, dumping torrential rains, unleashing high winds, and battering coastlines with massive waves. The areas of impact include critical commercial zones to global supply chains. 

  

  Shanghai and Ningbo-Zhoushan Ports are in the direct path of the storm. The twin port cities are some of the largest in Asia and the world in cargo handling and are at a standstill as waves up to 5 meters (16 feet) are expected Wednesday. 

  Ports in eastern China face disruptions ahead of typhoon Muifa

  Shipping activity in eastern China is set for further disruptions as a powerful typhoon approaches the region, including the key port cities of Ningbo and Zhoushan.
  #typhoonMuifa #ports pic.twitter.com/9WZwWtJQXo

  — MarineTraffic (@MarineTraffic) September 14, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  ⚡The last container vessel left the #Yangshan port at 02:55 local time, all operations have been suspended before the landing of Typhoon #Muifa on Sept.14.#Shanghai raised the typhoon emergency response level to II from III this morning. https://t.co/Bc8jki6c51 pic.twitter.com/6Ni0PkAamn

  — CN Wire (@Sino_Market) September 14, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  US Joint Typhoon Warning Center said wind gusts over 100 mph are expected for the next 12 hours as it approaches Shanghai. 

  China issued the highest-level typhoon warning on Wednesday for the first time this year, according to state media. 

  Typhoon Muifa (formerly Inday) will make its landfall tonight over eastern China – in the country’s joint second busiest port Ningbo and Zhoushan and in the main financial hub Shanghai.

  More than 40M people live in these three cities. pic.twitter.com/4YRh2IYQ3B | via @arielrojasPH

  — ABS-CBN News (@ABSCBNNews) September 14, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Besides shipping disruptions, all flights in the region have been canceled for Wednesday, flight data platform Variflight told Reuters. 

  Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Steven Lam said the storm could inflict almost a billion dollars in damage to coastal areas in eastern China. 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 09/14/2022 – 18:00

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• Escobar: Asia's Future Takes Shape In Vladivostok, The Russian Pacific
  Escobar: Asia’s Future Takes Shape In Vladivostok, The Russian Pacific

  Authored by Pepe Escobar,

  Sixty-eight countries gathered on Russia’s far eastern coast to listen to Moscow’s economic and political vision for the Asia-Pacific…

  

  The Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) in Vladivostok is one of the indispensable annual milestones for keeping up not only with the complex development process of the Russian Far East but major plays for Eurasia integration.

  Mirroring an immensely turbulent 2022, the current theme in Vladivostok is ‘On the Path to a Multipolar World.’ Russian President Vladimir Putin himself, in a short message to business and government participants from 68 nations, set the stage:

  “The obsolete unipolar model is being replaced by a new world order based on the fundamental principles of justice and equality, as well as the recognition of the right of each state and people to their own sovereign path of development. Powerful political and economic centers are taking shape right here in the Asia-Pacific region, acting as a driving force in this irreversible process.”

  In his speech to the EEF plenary session, Ukraine was barely mentioned. Putin’s response when asked about it: “Is this country part of Asia-Pacific?”

  The speech was largely structured as a serious message to the collective west, as well as to what top analyst Sergey Karaganov calls the “global majority.” Among several takeaways, these may be the most relevant:

  • Russia as a sovereign state will defend its interests.

  • Western sanctions ‘fever’ is threatening the world – and economic crises are not going away after the pandemic.

  • The entire system of international relations has changed. There is an attempt to maintain world order by changing the rules.

  • Sanctions on Russia are closing down businesses in Europe. Russia is coping with economic and tech aggression from the west.

  • Inflation is breaking records in developed countries. Russia is looking at around 12 percent.

  • Russia has played its part in grain exports leaving Ukraine, but most shipments went to EU nations and not developing countries.

  • The “welfare of the ‘Golden Billion’ is being ignored.”

  • The west is in no position to dictate energy prices to Russia.

  • Ruble and yuan will be used for gas payments.

  • The role of Asia-Pacific has significantly increased.

  In a nutshell: Asia is the new epicenter of technological progress and productivity.

  No more an ‘object of colonization’ 

  Taking place only two weeks before another essential annual gathering – the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Samarkand – it is no wonder some of the top discussions at the EEF revolve around the increasing economic interpolation between the SCO and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

  This theme is as crucial as the development of the Russian Arctic: at 41 percent of total territory, that’s the largest resource base in the federation, spread out over nine regions, and encompassing the largest Special Economic Zone (SEZ) on the planet, linked to the free port of Vladivostok. The Arctic is being developed via several strategically important projects processing mineral, energy, water and biological natural resources.

  So it’s perfectly fitting that Austria’s former foreign minister Karin Kneissel, self-described as “a passionate historian,” quipped about her fascination at how Russia and its Asian partners are tackling the development of the Northern Sea Route: “One of my favorite expressions is that airlines and pipelines are moving east. And I keep saying this for twenty years.”

  Amidst a wealth of roundtables exploring everything from the power of territory, supply chains and global education to “the three whales” (science, nature, human), arguably the top discussion this Tuesday at the forum was centered on the role of the SCO.

  Apart from the current full members – Russia, China, India, Pakistan, four Central Asians (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan), plus the recent accession of Iran – no less than 11 further nations want to join, from observer Afghanistan to dialogue partner Turkey.

  Grigory Logvinov, the SCO’s deputy secretary general, stressed how the economic, political and scientific potential of players comprising “the center of gravity” for Asia – over a quarter of the world’s GDP, 50 percent of the world’s population – has not been fully harvested yet.

  Kirill Barsky, from the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, explained how the SCO is actually the model of multipolarity, according to its charter, compared to the backdrop of “destructive processes” launched by the west.

  And that leads to the economic agenda in the Eurasian integration progress, with the Russian-led Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU) configured as the SCO’s most important partner.

  Barsky identifies the SCO as “the core Eurasian structure, forming the agenda of Greater Eurasia within a network of partnership organizations.” That’s where the importance of the cooperation with ASEAN comes in.

  Barsky could not but evoke Mackinder, Spykman and Brzezinski – who regarded Eurasia “as an object to be acted upon the wishes of western states, confined within the continent, away from the ocean shores, so the western world could dominate in a global confrontation of land and sea. The SCO as it developed can triumph over these negative concepts.”

  And here we hit a notion widely shared from Tehran to Vladivostok:

  Eurasia no longer as “an object of colonization by ‘civilized Europe’ but again an agent of global policy.”

  ‘India wants a 21st Asian century’

  Sun Zuangnzhi from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) elaborated on China’s interest in the SCO. He focused on achievements: In the 21 years since its founding, a mechanism to establish security between China, Russia and Central Asian states evolved into “multi-tiered, multi-sector cooperation mechanisms.”

  Instead of “turning into a political instrument,” the SCO should capitalize on its role of dialogue forum for states with a difficult history of conflicts – “interactions are sometimes difficult” – and focus on economic cooperation “on health, energy, food security, reduction of poverty.”

  Rashid Alimov, a former SCO secretary general, now a professor at the Taihe Institute, stressed the “high expectations” from Central Asian nations, the core of the organization. The original idea remains – based on the indivisibility of security on a trans-regional level in Eurasia.

  Well, we all know how the US and NATO reacted when Russia late last year proposed a serious dialogue on “indivisibility of security.”

  As Central Asia does not have an outlet to the sea, it is inevitable, as Alimov stressed, that Uzbekistan’s foreign policy privileges involvement in accelerated intra-SCO trade. Russia and China may be the leading investors, and now “Iran also plays an important role. Over 1,200 Iranian companies are working in Central Asia.”

  Connectivity, once again, must increase: “The World Bank rates Central Asia as one of the least connected economies in the world.”

  Sergey Storchak of Russian bank VEB explained the workings of the “SCO interbank consortium.” Partners have used “a credit line from the Bank of China” and want to sign a deal with Uzbekistan. The SCO interbank consortium will be led by the Indians on a rotation basis – and they want to step up its game. At the upcoming summit in Samarkand, Storchak expects a road map for the transition towards the use of national currencies in regional trade.

  Kumar Rajan from the School of International Studies of the Jawaharlal Nehru University articulated the Indian position. He went straight to the point: “India wants a 21st Asian century. Close cooperation between India and China is necessary. They can make the Asian century happen.”

  Rajan remarked how India does not see the SCO as an alliance, but committed to the development and political stability of Eurasia.

  He made the crucial point about connectivity revolving around India “working with Russia and Central Asia with the INSTC” – the International North South Transportation Corridor, and one of its key hubs, the Chabahar port in Iran: “India does not have direct physical connectivity with Central Asia. The INSTC has the participation of an Iranian shipping line with 300 vessels, connecting to Mumbai. President Putin, in the [recent] Caspian meeting, referred directly to the INSTC.”

  Crucially, India not only supports the Russian concept of Greater Eurasia Partnership but is engaged in setting up a free trade agreement with the EAEU: Prime Minister Narendra Modi, incidentally, came to the Vladivostok forum last year.

  In all of the above nuanced interventions, some themes are constant. After the Afghanistan disaster and the end of the US occupation there, the stabilizing role of the SCO cannot be overstated enough. An ambitious road map for cooperation is a must – probably to be approved at the Samarkand summit. All players will be gradually changing to trade in bilateral currencies. And creation of transit corridors is leading to the progressive integration of national transit systems.

  Let there be light

  A key roundtable on the ‘Gateway to a Multipolar World’ expanded on the SCO role, outlining how most Asian nations are “friendly” or “benevolently neutral” when it comes to Russia after the start of the Special Military Operation (SMO) in Ukraine.

  So the possibilities for expanding cooperation across Eurasia remain practically unlimited. Complementarity of economies is the main factor. That would lead, among other developments, to the Russian Far East, as a multipolar hub, turning into “Russia’s gateway to Asia” by the 2030s.

  Wang Wen from the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies stressed the need for Russia to rediscover China – finding “mutual trust in the middle level and elites level”. At the same time, there’s a sort of global rush to join BRICS, from Saudi Arabia and Iran to Afghanistan and Argentina:

  “That means a new civilization model for emerging economies like China and Argentina because they want to rise up peacefully (…) I think we are in the new civilization age.”

  B. K. Sharma from the United Service Institution of India got back to Spykman pigeonholing the nation as a rimland state. Not anymore: India now has multiple strategies, from connecting to Central Asia to the ‘Act East’ policy. Overall, it’s an outreach to Eurasia, as India “is not competitive and needs to diversify to get better access to Eurasia, with logistical help from Russia.“

  Sharma stresses how India takes SCO, BRICS and RICs very seriously while seeing Russia playing “an important role in the Indian Ocean.” He nuances the Indo-Pacific outlook: India does not want Quad as a military alliance, privileging instead “interdependence and complementarity between India, Russia and China.”

  All of these discussions interconnect with the two overarching themes in several Vladivostok roundtables: energy and the development of the Arctic’s natural resources.

  Pavel Sorokin, Russian First Deputy Minister of Energy, dismissed the notion of a storm or typhoon in the energy markets: “It’s a far cry from a natural process. It’s a man-made situation.” The Russian economy, in contrast, is seen by most analysts as slowly but surely designing its Arctic/Asian cooperation future – including, for instance, the creation of a sophisticated trans-shipment infrastructure for Liquified Natural Gas (LNG).

  Energy Minister Nikolay Shulginov made sure that Russia will actually increase its gas production, considering the rise of LNG deliveries and the construction of Power of Siberia-2 to China: “We will not merely scale up the pipeline capacity but we will also expand LNG production: it has mobility and excellent purchases on the global market.”

  On the Northern Sea Route, the emphasis is on building a powerful, modern icebreaker fleet – including nuclear. Gadzhimagomed Guseynov, First Deputy Minister for the Development of the Far East and the Arctic, is adamant: “What Russia has to do is to make the Northern Sea Route a sustainable and important transit route.”

  There is a long-term plan up to 2035 to create infrastructure for safe shipping navigation, following an ‘Arctic best practices’ of learning step by step. NOVATEK, according to its deputy chairman Evgeniy Ambrosov, has been conducting no less than a revolution in terms of Arctic navigation and shipbuilding in the last few years.

  Kniessel, the former Austrian minister, recalled that she always missed the larger geopolitical picture in her discussions when she was active in European politics (she now lives in Lebanon): “I wrote about the passing of the torch from Atlanticism to the Pacific. Airlines, pipelines and waterways are moving East. The Far East is actually Pacific Russia.”

  Whatever Atlanticists may think of it, the last word for the moment might belong to Vitaly Markelov, from the board of directors of Gazprom: Russia is ready for winter. There will be warmth and light everywhere.”

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 09/13/2022 – 23:30

• "No More Naivety": Germany Working On New Trade Policy Reducing Dependence On Chinese Raw Materials
  “No More Naivety”: Germany Working On New Trade Policy Reducing Dependence On Chinese Raw Materials

  It appears that beggars can be choosers.

  The beggar in this case is Germany – whose economic prosperity over the past two decades has been largely a function of its close mercantilist relationship with China (and, of course, the PIIGS-crippling euro which allowed Germany to benefit from a cheap, distributed and very much artificial currency instead of the always overvalued DEM) – which according to Reuters has chosen it no longer needs said prosperity, and on Tuesday Germany’s economy minister, Robert Habeck, said the government was working on a new trade policy with China to reduce dependence on Chinese raw materials, batteries and semiconductors, promising “no more naivety” in trade dealings with Beijing.

  Sources told Reuters last week the economy ministry was considering a raft of new measures to make business with China less attractive. And today was the first time the minister confirmed the tougher line was being translated into policy measures

  Habeck told Reuters that China was a welcome trading partner, but Germany could not allow Beijing’s protectionism to distort competition and would not hold back criticism of human rights violations under threat of losing business.

  “We cannot allow ourselves to be blackmailed,” he said in an interview, clearly forgetting that since Germany already lost Russian commodities, it clearly can be blackmailed by China, which together with its sphere of influence – i.e., LatAm and Africa – which remains its last chance at having access to any commodities.

  Habeck did not outline new measures in full – for the simple reason that they don’t exist nor will they ever be implemented unless Germany wants an overnight depression – but said they would include closer examination of Chinese investments in Europe, such as infrastructure.

  While there are many things about Germany’s tantrum that are delightfully idiotic, what is most laughable is that China has been Germany’s biggest trade partner for the past six years, with volumes reaching over 245 billion euros ($246 billion) in 2021. And guess what happens when you tell your biggest trade partner you will no longer tolerate anything they want you to tolerate?

  But the centre-left government – the same geniuses who laughed at Trump, took their energy policies from a Scandinavian teenager, left Germany with almost no nuclear power plants and hostage to Putin’s geopolitical ambitions – is taking a tougher line towards Beijing than its centre-right predecessor, clearly pressured by woke German twitterers and “worried about Germany’s dependence on Asia’s economic superpower” (odd they were not worried about Germany’s dependent on Russia’s energy superpower).

  Last Thursday, Reuters reported the economy ministry was considering measures including reducing or even scrapping investment and export guarantees for China and no longer promoting trade fairs. Habeck said Germany must open up to new trading partners and regions as many sectors were heavily dependent on selling to China.

  Of course, if Germany is dumb enough to do another huge mistake and extends its blockade of Russia to China, the results will be beyond catastrophic.

  “If it (the Chinese market) were to close, which is not likely at the moment … we would have extreme sales problems,” Habeck said, adding the economy ministry was contributing to the new German-China policy, much of which is already in place. “And from this you will see that there is no more naivety,” he added.

  Berlin also wants to examine Chinese investments in Europe more critically, he said, adding Europe should not support China’s Silk Road Initiative, which aims to buy up strategic infrastructure in Europe and influence trade policy.

  As an example, Habeck signalled he was opposed to plans by China’s Cosco to buy a stake in a container operator at Germany’s Hafen Hamburg port, signalling concerns about Chinese takeover deals are spreading out from the technology arena into other industry sectors, such as logistics.

  “I’m leaning towards the fact that we don’t allow that,” he said.

  China has not joined the West in imposing sweeping sanctions on Moscow following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but has also not endorsed Moscow’s actions as Beijing needs to maintain trade relations with Europe. Of course, the more Europe in general, and Germany in particular, pushes against its biggest trading partner, the faster it will ensure that the strategic union between Russia and China is unbreakable, and leave the west with soaring inflation in everything from commodities to raw materials and all those formerly cheap things people could buy at Walmart.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 09/13/2022 – 23:10

• Post-Fukushima Shift: Political And Public Support Rises In Japan For More Nuclear Plants
  Post-Fukushima Shift: Political And Public Support Rises In Japan For More Nuclear Plants

  In Japan, a major reversal last month, the government now wants to restart more nuclear power plants that were idled after the 2011 Fukushima disaster and is interested in expanding investments in next-generation plants. Weeks after the announcement, Japanese broadcaster NHK commissioned a new survey that revealed half of the population supports the government’s initiative to expand nuclear power. 

  NHK found that 48% of the respondents supported Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s plan of developing next-generation nuclear reactors as a reliable, clean energy power source in the country. About 32% opposed the plan, and another 20% were undecided. 

  The survey was conducted between Sept. 9-11 via random telephone conversations among 1,255 adults and came two weeks after Kishida announced plans to examine the construction of new plants that would break more than a decade of energy policy following the Fukushima disaster, which led to a decade-long effort to eliminate nuclear. 

  Japan’s energy policy is coming out of a decade of paralysis with increasing political and public support. The prime minister announced the restart of seven nuclear reactors across the country by the summer of 2023, bringing the total number of operating power units to 17.

  

  Kishida’s reasoning behind revisiting nuclear comes as Japan could face electricity supply problems due to soaring prices of natural gas and other energy products. 

  Uranium bulls should be jumping for joy at the prime minister’s statement last month: 

  “Nuclear power and renewables are essential to proceed with a green transformation,” Kishida said. “Russia’s invasion changed the global energy situation.”

  Besides Japan, California and Germany have recently announced plans to extend the life of nuclear power plants beyond the end of this year as the world faces a very dark winter amid a global energy crisis.

  “Germany and California have been two of the most negative jurisdictions in the world on nuclear and both of them are coming around. I would say hell would freeze over before that would happen,” Per Jander, director of nuclear and renewables at WMC Energy, a commodity merchant, told Financial Times. “It will have an immediate impact on the market.”

  The world appears to be more receptive to nuclear following the invasion of Ukraine. We should revisit our recommendation on Uranium from December 2020. 

  

  Nuclear will sooner or later be accepted as one of the most stable “clean energy” sources of power in the green energy transition. Unlike solar, wind, and hydro, the world has figured out those renewable energy sources aren’t as reliable as previously thought. Nuclear will be a big winner as the world races to decarbonize power grids. 

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 09/13/2022 – 22:30

• Virginia AG Forming 'Election Integrity Unit' To Make It "Easy To Vote And Hard To Cheat"
  Virginia AG Forming ‘Election Integrity Unit’ To Make It “Easy To Vote And Hard To Cheat”

  Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Virginia’s Republican attorney general, Jason Miyares, announced on Sept. 9 the formation of an “Election Integrity Unit” within his office that will ensure “legality and purity” in the election process by working with law enforcement, the Department of Elections, the State Board, and the broader community.

  “I pledged during the 2021 campaign to work to increase transparency and strengthen confidence in our state elections,” said Miyares in a press release on Friday. “It should be easy to vote, and hard to cheat. The Election Integrity Unit will work to help to restore confidence in our democratic process in the Commonwealth.”

  

  Headed by Miyares, the unit will have more than 20 attorneys, investigators, and paralegals from across the various divisions of the AG’s office. They are expected to monitor processes across Virginia’s 133 local electoral boards and general registrars and the bipartisan State Board of Elections starting with the upcoming midterms. Early voting begins in the state on Sept. 17, 2022.

  The Republican Party of Virginia voiced its support for the unit, and said that the AG’s “bold initiative will increase transparency in our elections, restore confidence in our democratic process, and better ensure that every vote is counted in accordance with the law.”

  “At the same time, Democrats in the state senate have blocked common-sense election integrity measures like voter ID,” it added.

  The Epoch Times has reached out to the office of Virginia Democrats.

  “With the creation of this unit, Attorney General Miyares has fully embraced Trump’s ‘Big Lie’ and the far-right fringes of the Republican party,” said Democratic Party of Virginia spokesman Gianni Snidle, according to Virginia Mercury.

  Voter Fraud in Virginia

  The statement from the Virginia GOP included the news of a former election official who has been prosecuted by Miyares for election fraud. “Just this week, we saw the need for stronger protections for our elections system when a former top Prince William County election official was indicted on fraud charges related to the 2020 election,” said the GOP.

  The official, Michele White, was indicted last week for three felonies, according to documents reviewed by The Epoch Times. Based on the grand jury charge, White engaged in corrupt conduct between Aug. 1 and Dec. 31, 2020, and is accused of making a false statement regarding the election and neglecting her duty as an election officer. She faces 21 years in prison if convicted of all charges.

  Media companies like Democracy Docket and the Washington Post discounted the formation of the unit, and wrote similar tweets voicing their opinions on the 2020 election.

  “Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares (R) announces new Election Integrity Unit to investigate and prosecute election law violations. Election crimes are not a widespread problem in Virginia, or anywhere in the U.S.,” said Democracy Docket in a tweet on Friday.

  🚨ALERT: Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares (R) announces new Election Integrity Unit to investigate and prosecute election law violations. Election crimes are not a widespread problem in Virginia, or anywhere in the U.S.https://t.co/E9Ljy2GZi0

  — Democracy Docket (@DemocracyDocket) September 9, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Meanwhile, the Washington Post said, “Virginia’s Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares announced the creation of an ‘Election Integrity Unit’ that will provide legal advice and prosecute election law violations. The state, however, has not seen significant issues with voter fraud.”

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 09/13/2022 – 22:10

• NY Fed Guru Says Powell Will "Overdo It" And Cause A Recession
  NY Fed Guru Says Powell Will “Overdo It” And Cause A Recession

  When BofA’s top Rates strategist, and former NY Fed analyst, Marc Cabana speaks, investors, the Fed – and even his former Fed co-worker and repo guru, Zoltan Pozsar – listen. And what Cabana has to say is always extremely important.

  Two months after Cabana’s rates team published a must read note in which it predicted that the Fed will be forced to end QT much sooner than expected…

  “Fed QT that is stopped in Sept ’23 will result in $1tn less balance sheet reduction vs our prior estimates through end ’24. Over a similar period, early QT end would result in $780b less UST financing need + $350b of additional Fed UST demand (from Fed MBS paydowns reinvested into USTs).”

  

  … today the former NY Fed guru warned of precisely the same thing that we have been saying for years, namely that the Fed won’t stop – and probably can’t stop – until it breaks something. Or some things.

  as a reminder, Fed will keep hiking – as it always has – until it breaks something (i.e., the $20T USD short squeeze) pic.twitter.com/AzzEgtfKHr

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 13, 2022

  Speaking to Bloomberg TV just one hour before today’s CPI print came in far hotter than expected and convinced markets that a 100bps hike is likely on deck next week, Cabana said the Fed is so intent on stopping inflation it will likely raise rates until the US economy is in a recession.

  “The Fed is probably going to overdo it,” the global head of US rates strategy at BofA, told Bloomberg TV. “We have seen them turn very hawkish with the labor-market strength. We think that the Fed will try and stick to this higher-for-longer mantra. That’s probably going to result in a recession.”

  Shortly after Cabana’s interview, the CPI print sent stocks plunging to their worst daily loss since the summer of 2020, as Treasury yields soared across the curve, with the two-year rate soaring as much as 18 basis points to about 3.75% — the highest since 2007 — while the terminal rate, or the implied rate for where the tightening cycle will top out next year, leaped to about 4.3%.

  And since by then the Fed will have broken more than just the economy (last week we had our first major credit event as Mike Hartnett noted), expectations that the Fed will have to cut even faster than before in 2023 also jumped.

  

  Cabana also picked up on a point we made over the weekend, namely that “the Fed probably won’t trust that until they see the labor market soften more meaningfully. It certainly seems like the Fed is dead-set on ensuring that they get that labor market slowdown.”

  Translation: as Jason Furman wrote late last week, for the Fed to lower inflation to ~2% by the 2024 presidential election, unemployment will have to rise to 6.5% from 3.7% currently…

  

  … resulting in a tidal wave of job less equal to at least an additional 4.8 million unemployed.

  

  Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other officials have said the bank is committed to its goal of cutting inflation down to 2% over time. Cabana provided a warning to investors on that point.

  “I do worry that this is a Fed that wants to see even more tightening of financial conditions in order to have faith that they will be able to achieve their 2% inflation target,” he said. The risks are skewed in the Fed continuing to sound hawkish, with that being be “a headwind for risk assets,” Cabana added.

  And of course, he is right… to a point, the point being when enough Democrats scream bloody murder at the coming unemployment tsunami and force Powell to reverse. What happens then? Why the exact thing we have been saying for over a year: the Fed’s only option will be to raise its “inflation target” from 2% to 3%, something even Fuhrman agrees is coming…

  Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other officials have said the bank is committed to its goal of cutting inflation down to 2% over time. Cabana provided a warning to investors on that point. “I do worry that this is a Fed that wants to see even more tightening of financial conditions in order to have faith that they will be able to achieve their 2% inflation target,” he said. The risks are skewed in the Fed continuing to sound hawkish, with that being be “a headwind for risk assets,” Cabana added.

  … and an event which will send all assets to fresh all time highs, which may explain why so many stubbornly refuse to sell stocks, well aware that when the Fed pivot comes, all markets will reprice exponentially higher within nanoseconds.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 09/13/2022 – 21:50

• Peter Thiel: 'Wokeness' Is Like Wahhabism
  Peter Thiel: ‘Wokeness’ Is Like Wahhabism

  Authored by Park MacDougald via UnHerd.com,

  The third annual National Conservatism conference kicked off Sunday in Miami, Florida, bringing together a who’s who of figures associated with the so-called “New Right.” Topics of discussion included how to combat the rise of China, how to fight back against gender ideology, and, courtesy of the Heritage Foundation’s David Azerrad, how to resist the “blackpill” of living in a country in which “the elite is corrupt and so are the people”.  

  But the headliners were names that will be familiar to anyone with even a passing familiarity with current events – billionaire investor Peter Thiel and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, whose 2024 presidential ambitions are the worst-kept secret in American politics.

  The billionaire warned that California is starting to seem like Saudi Arabia…

  

  Peter Thiel delivered a typically contrarian speech at the NatCon conference

  Thiel opened the conference with what, considering the circumstances, amounted to a contrarian speech.

  The topic of his address was California, which in recent years has become a standard conservative punching bag.

  But Thiel’s diagnosis of the problem was different.

  In his view, the main problem with California is that, like Saudi Arabia or Venezuela, it is the victim of a “resource curse”.

  That is, the wealth generated from California’s tech sector is so tremendous that it ends up distorting the state’s entire political economy.

  “Wokeness”, he posited, plays the same role as Wahabbism in the similarly afflicted Saudi Arabia.

  There is, of course, a minority — “maybe 20%” of true believers — but mostly it is a sort of lip service that Machiavellian elites pay to a system of values that allows them to keep the whole corrupt machine running. 

  

  The problem with the Democratic Party, Thiel argued, is that it is effectively trapped in the California model – a fabulously wealthy and productive oligarchy on top, public-sector bureacurats in the middle, and a feral underclass dependent on government transfers on the bottom.

  But that model can’t go national — there isn’t enough money in the tech sector to go around. 

  Thiel also issued a word of warning to Republicans.

  The current GOP, he said, is stuck in a pure “nihilistic negation” of the Democrats’ California model – railing against wokeness, urban crime, and feces on the streets of San Francisco, without even attempting to offer a positive model to counter it.

  “The temptation on our side is always going to be that all we have to do is say that we’re not California,” he said.

  “It is just such an ugly picture, the homeless poop, people pooping all over the place, it’s the ridiculous rat-infested apartments that don’t work anymore, it’s the woke insanities, there’s so much that it feels like shooting fish in a barrel. It’s so easy, so ridiculous to denounce.”

  The question Republicans should be asking, he said, was: “How can we concretely offer a vision for the 21st century that’s better than California?”

  Bashing California “might be enough to win in the midterms in ’22,” Thiel said, “It might be enough to win in ’24. But we want to have more of a program positive vision, something like that to be credible.”

  Even red state success stories like Texas and Florida, he noted, have seen speculative bonanzas in real estate and permanently rising housing prices in cities like Austin and Miami, suggesting that neither Greg Abbott nor Ron DeSantis have figured out a truly sustainable model for middle class prosperity. 

  “The fact that real estate in Florida or Texas has melted up over the last two or three years is not evidence that you’re succeeding and building a better model than California,” he said.

  “I’m worried that that’s evidence that you’re becoming like California.”

  Watch the full Thiel keynote below:

  The billionaire’s remarks were a bit cryptic, and hung over the remainder of Day 1, which in other respects felt like a full-on rally for DeSantis’s expected 2024 presidential campaign. Indeed, DeSantis’s speech, which closed proceedings on Sunday evening, brought the house down. 

  The governor, looking confident behind the lectern, spent nearly an hour running through his big themes of the last two years – fighting the public health bureaucrats over lockdowns and school shutdowns, passing laws against woke indoctrination in schools and workplaces, and going to war with Disney over what he described as the company’s plans to push gender ideology on Florida’s children. When he reached the climax of his speech – “Disney is no longer going to have its own government – the room erupted in a standing ovation.  

  DeSantis, if today is any indication, has won over the nationalist-populist intellectual sorts that have flocked to today’s conference. But if Thiel’s remarks are any indication, America’s most interesting billionaire is after bigger game.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 09/13/2022 – 21:30

• Another Russian Energy Exec Found Dead, 'Fell Overboard' Boat At Full Speed
  Another Russian Energy Exec Found Dead, ‘Fell Overboard’ Boat At Full Speed

  Another one bites the dust…

  Less than two weeks since Ravil Maganov, the vice president and chair of the board of directors of Russian oil giant Lukoil, died after falling out of a sixth floor hospital window in Moscow, another Russian energy executive has been found dead in mysterious circumstances.

  39-year-old Ivan Pechorin, managing director of Putin’s Far East and Arctic Development Corporation, fell off the side of a boat while sailing in the waters close to Russky Island near Cape Ignatiev, according to Russian daily Komsomolskaya Pravda.

  

  For two days, rescuers searched for a man at sea near the coastline – unfortunately, he was found dead.

  “On September 12, 2022, it became known about the tragic death of our colleague, Managing Director for the Aviation Industry of the Far East and Arctic Development Corporation Ivan Pechorin. Ivan’s death is an irreparable loss for friends and colleagues, a great loss for the corporation,” representatives of the Development Corporation said.

  According to The Mirror’s Russia correspondent, he was personally selected by Putin for his role, and was described by Newsweek as Putin’s “key man” in the region. 

  Interestingly, Pechorin’s death comes just months after the corporation’s former CEO Igor Nosov, 43, also died suddenly in February, reportedly from a stroke.

  Pechorin’s death is the latest in a string of unexplained or untimely deaths of Russian magnates connected to the energy industry in the last months.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 09/13/2022 – 21:10

• Biden Admin Reportedly Ready To Refill Strategic Petroleum Reserve At $80/BBL
  Biden Admin Reportedly Ready To Refill Strategic Petroleum Reserve At $80/BBL

  A day after we reported that the Biden administration withdrew a record amount from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve plunging it to its lowest since 1982, Bloomberg reports that, according to people familiar with the matter, the US may begin refilling its emergency oil reserve when crude prices fall to around $80 a barrel.

  

  The sources said that Biden administration officials are weighing the timing of such a move, with an eye toward protecting US oil-production growth and preventing crude prices from plummeting (in an effort to reassure oil producers that the administration won’t let prices collapse).

  The reaction in WTI was immediate with the front-month bid (well above $80)…

  

  “It may not be a catalyst for $100 crude but does offer a buffer to the downside risk that the market is worrying about,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Management.

  And as we have noted previously, while gas prices have dropped for 90 straight days now, they are already decoupled to the downside (thanks to the SPR releases) relative to crude and wholesale prices.

  

  But, as we noted yesterday, this is likely to be problem for after the Midterms – so really, Biden doesn’t care if it raises gas prices, it will be Republican House’s problem?

  So – to sum up – President Biden is fighting inflation by pre-announcing there is now a hard floor on oil prices, ensuring they never drop below it and gasoline surges now that OPEC has all the leverage.

  This may well be the dumbest thing to ever come out of this administration https://t.co/7cwvoZI2x6

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 13, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Trade accordingly.

  

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 09/13/2022 – 20:58

• These US Cities Are Seeing Largest Increase In Rent Prices
  These US Cities Are Seeing Largest Increase In Rent Prices

  Authored by Mary Prenon via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  While New York, California, and Boston continue to be the most expensive rental markets in the country, some unexpected locales have actually experienced the largest increases in one-bedroom apartment prices year-over-year.

  

  Greensboro, North Carolina, sits atop the list with rent increases of 74.2 percent, followed by Newport News, Virginia, at 60.7 percent, and Tulsa, Oklahoma, at 59.8 percent, according to  Rent.com’s August report. Jon Leckie, a researcher with Rent.com, told The Epoch Times that such increases aren’t unusual, given the amount of people who have been flocking to these areas.

  “We’re seeing a pattern where the markets around the larger metro areas are attracting more people because they’re less expensive, but still within an hour’s commute to a city,” he said. “People want to get out of the crowded, expensive core metros, and the trend toward more remote working means they may not have to commute every day.”

  With one-bedroom apartment monthly rentals averaging $1,289, Greensboro’s rental market falls far below the national average of $1,770.

  “Currently, Charlotte [North Carolina] has the most outbound migration than any other city in the county,” Leckie said. “People are leaving the bigger cities, and we’ve found that much of inbound traffic to Greensboro and the other smaller markets is from New York City, Philadelphia, Chicago, Raleigh, Atlanta, Nashville, and [Washington] D.C.”

  Little Rock, Arkansas; Oklahoma City; Lexington, Kentucky; Rochester, New York; and other communities with populations below 300,000 people are also experiencing rental booms.

  On the other hand, St. Louis; Fort Lauderdale, Florida; and Baltimore are the top three locations that have seen the biggest decrease in one-bedroom apartment rents. St. Louis leads with a 39.4 percent decline, followed by Fort Lauderdale at 34.9 percent and Baltimore at 26.9 percent. Miami, Cleveland, and Reno, Nevada, also made the list of rent reductions.

  “St. Louis saw a huge decline, especially when downtown prices are so high for small spaces,” Leckie said. “The general trends we see, as the big coastal cities continue blowing up with high prices, are that renters will seek out cheaper areas in the Midwest and South. The Northeast and the West are still losing people.”

  Not surprisingly, the report lists New York as the most expensive rental area, with the average one-bedroom rental at $5,760 per month. In the cities of Glendale and Oakland, California, monthly rents average $4,014 and $3,916, respectively. Boston apartment renters pay an average of $3,080, while San Francisco’s average is $3,701 per month.

  Some of the nation’s most affordable one-bedroom rentals can be found in Oklahoma City, at an average of $945; Wichita, Kansas, at $840; and Sioux Falls, South Dakota, with the lowest average of just $796.

  For two-bedroom rentals, the report lists Seattle, Little Rock, and Durham, North Carolina, as the top three cities experiencing the biggest rent increases. Seattle’s rent is up by almost 60 percent, followed by 54.7 percent for Little Rock and 54.2 percent for Durham.

  Conversely, the largest two-bedroom rental decreases were found in Fort Lauderdale, down by almost 43 percent, and St. Louis and Des Moines, Iowa, down by 28.2 percent and 20.6 percent, respectively.

  As with one-bedroom apartments, New York leads the way with the priciest options; the average two-bedroom apartment in the city rents for $8,346 per month. Boston, at $5,795  per month, is the second-most expensive two-bedroom rental market, followed by Oakland, San Francisco, and Los Angeles.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 09/13/2022 – 20:50

• FBI Tracks Down Mike Lindell On Hunting Trip, Surrounds His Car And Seizes Cell Phone
  FBI Tracks Down Mike Lindell On Hunting Trip, Surrounds His Car And Seizes Cell Phone

  Prominent Trump supporter and 2020 election integrity skeptic Mike Lindell says he was stopped by the FBI Tuesday and had his cell phone seized.

  

  While heading home from a hunting trip with a friend, Lindell said he was at a Hardees in Minnesota when “cars pulled up in front of us, to the side of us and behind us, and I said ‘they’re either bad guys or the FBI,'” he said. “Well, it turns out they were the FBI.

  Mike Lindell says the FBI stopped him today at a Hardees in Minnesota:

  “Cars pulled up in front of us, to the side of us, and behind us and I said those are either bad guys or the FBI. Well, it turns out they were the FBI.” pic.twitter.com/RHADVBUTxW

  — Citizen Free Press (@CitizenFreePres) September 13, 2022

  More: 

  “I can’t even imagine that you can take someone’s phone because they want me to be a witness in the Tina Peters case. But I’m not a witness, they just want my phone.”

  Mike Lindell says the FBI stopped him at a Hardees in Minnesota today and seized his phone:

  “I can’t even imagine that you can take someone’s phone because they want me to be a witness in the Tina Peters case. But I’m not a witness, they just want my phone.” pic.twitter.com/qCbNQjEZGb

  — Citizen Free Press (@CitizenFreePres) September 13, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Lindell is the latest Trump ally to receive a warrant or subpoena by the FBI. Last week, the Biden DOJ hit dozens of Trump aides and allies with subpoenas as part of their investigation into efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 US election over claims of fraud that handed Joe Biden the White House, as well as the run up to the January 6, 2021 Capitol riot.

  Interesting how the Biden DOJ waited more tha 18 months – right before midterms – to initiate legal action against Trumpworld. And Biden said he wouldn’t weaponize the Justice Department.

  Tucker Carlson Reporting That Mike Lindell Has Been Raided By The FBI pic.twitter.com/SSURiey8mH

  — The Columbia Bugle 🇺🇸 (@ColumbiaBugle) September 14, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 09/13/2022 – 20:30

• China Is Not Rebalancing, Its Flawed Dependence On Huge Exports Continues
  China Is Not Rebalancing, Its Flawed Dependence On Huge Exports Continues

  Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

  China talks a game of trade reform but actions speak louder than words…

  

  1/6
  China’s export growth may have slowed compared to recent months, but it is nonetheless up 7.1% year on year in August. I don’t know what the global figures are, but I suspect that China continues to grow its share of total exports.https://t.co/iLoxvtap0r via @scmpnews

  — Michael Pettis (@michaelxpettis) September 7, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  1. China’s export growth may have slowed compared to recent months, but it is nonetheless up 7.1% year on year in August. I don’t know what the global figures are, but I suspect that China continues to grow its share of total exports.

  2. This should seem pretty remarkable given the problems the Chinese economy faced, but it isn’t. The government continues to release measure after measure aimed – almost desperately – at keeping total production rising. And production has risen, even if only slowly.

  3. The real problem, which Beijing still seems unable to address, continues to be very weak domestic demand. Imports were barely up year on year, rising nominally by 0.3% and almost certainly falling in real terms. This is the third month of surging exports and flat imports.

  4. This shows just how terribly weak domestic demand continues to be. Between rising uncertainty, high unemployment and downward pressure on wages, Chinese households are completely unable to increase their consumption and, with it, their imports.

  5. The trade surplus for August was $79.4 billion, the sixth highest monthly trade surplus on record. This may no longer seem a big number, but it is 35% higher than the record-breaking August surpluses of 2020 and 2021, and it is 129% higher than in 2019.

  6. Year to date China’s trade surplus is $571 billion, or 54% higher than it was last year at this time. This is equal to roughly 4.8% of China’s GDP.

  Nixon Shock, the Reserve Currency Curse, and a Pending Currency Crisis

  It’s important to understand that the US dollar as a global reserve currency and the end of Bretton Woods II is what makes this possible.

  The US is the world’s consumer of last resort. Things have become increasingly unbalanced ever since Nixon closed the gold convertibility window. 

  Now, nations can inflate at will and they do. The result is soaring deficits and massive trade imbalances that were self-correcting under a gold standard. 

  For discussion, please see Nixon Shock, the Reserve Currency Curse, and a Pending Currency Crisis

  *  *  *

  Please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 09/13/2022 – 20:10

• Kremlin Denies Plans For War Declaration & National Draft: "Not Under Discussion"
  Kremlin Denies Plans For War Declaration & National Draft: “Not Under Discussion”

  On Tuesday the Kremlin addressed widespread speculation and rumors that President Vladimir Putin is planning to issue a full declaration of war as Russian forces pull back from Kharkiv, in a Ukraine counteroffensive that Kiev leaders and their Western allies are hailing as a major success. A war declaration would trigger mass mobilization and a draft.

  “Russia is not planning to declare a mass national draft for the war in Ukraine,” the Kremlin stated, amid reports its forces are suffering fatigue, low moral and manpower shortages. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov emphasized this is not under discussion at this point: “Not at this point. No, we are not discussing that,” he said when asked about widespread reports, as quoted in TASS news.

  

  Peskov was then pressed about the degree to which Ukrainian forces had advanced into Russian lines in the northeast, amid ongoing heavy fighting, but he declined to address the ground situation. “This is for the Defense Ministry. I simply do not have accurate information,” he said.

  There does appear to be growing pressure from inside Russia to act, according to The Moscow Times: 

  Lawmaker Mikhail Sheremet, a member of the State Duma’s Security Committee and the ruling United Russia party, spoke out in favor of general mobilization on Monday, according to the URA.ru news agency. 

  “Without full mobilization, [without] switching to the war mode, including the economy, we will not achieve the desired results,” the agency quoted Sheremet as saying. 

  “I am talking about the fact that today society should be consolidated as much as possible and aim for victory,” said the deputy.

  There have meanwhile also been signs in Russian domestic media and among popular pundits of a narrative shift that is increasingly recognizing recent Russian losses and setbacks, and the need for a strategy overhaul, as well as growing criticism of how the “special operation” is being managed. Very likely there’s under-the-surface ratcheting tensions across the population due to mounting casualties among the country’s young men who’ve been thrust into battle these past seven months.

  For example Al Jazeera chronicles some recent reactions going back to last week as Ukraine forces began taking key towns in the northeast: 

  “There is no panic in Balakliya,” the Telegram channel Veteran’s Notes, which boasts 192,000 subscribers, wrote on September 6. A number of pro-Russian feeds, including that of famous talkshow host Vladimir Solovyov, reposted that message.

  By the following day, however, there was a more sullen tone. “Don’t expect good news today,” Veteran’s Notes warned.

  An illusory declaration of war against Ukraine without full mobilization by Russia is plausible.

  There’s significant pressure on Putin’s government to do *something.*

  But actual wartime mobilization would risk political unrest. Maybe he tries Clinton-style triangulation. https://t.co/RZR6avh0mK

  — Clint Ehrlich (@ClintEhrlich) September 12, 2022

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  Days later, a Russian defense ministry statement called the withdrawal of Russian forces in Kharkiv Oblast a “regrouping”. Other examples from Russian media of a changing tone on the war include: 

  Speaking on the loss of Izyum, the host of a political talk show on Match TV, a sports channel, urged his viewers to “pray for our guys”.

  The government and its friendly voices in the media have acknowledged that Russian forces have withdrawn from previously held positions, but have avoided outwardly calling it a loss.

  Related to the question of a formal war declaration, looming large in the background is the continued unprecedented in size weapons pipeline coming from the US and NATO countries to Ukraine forces. There’s been widespread acknowledgement that US assistance, which has included intelligence-sharing, has greatly helped the recent Ukraine counteroffensive and territorial gains. This has led to the speculation that Putin could be getting ready to say “enough is enough” and expand the war.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 09/13/2022 – 19:50

• 'You Have To Get More Bearish' – Jeff Gundlach Says Buy Bonds, Sees S&P Hitting 3,000 On Over-Zealous Fed
  ‘You Have To Get More Bearish’ – Jeff Gundlach Says Buy Bonds, Sees S&P Hitting 3,000 On Over-Zealous Fed

  Billionaire investor Jeff Gundlach expects the S&P 500 Index to fall to 3,000 or about a 20%-25% drop from its current level, agreeing with comments made by Guggenheim’s Scott Minerd last week, citing a historical connection between price-to-earnings ratios for stocks and inflation.

  “The action of the credit market is consistent with economic weakness and stock market trouble,” Gundlach said in a CNBC interview.

  “I think you have to start becoming more bearish” in stocks.

  

  Despite the hotter-than-expected CPI print today – and the market’s surge in rate-hike expectations to a coin-flip between 75bps and 100bps, Gundlach said he believes the Fed should do a 25bps rate increase (though he expects the Fed will institute a 75 bps increase when it meets next week).

  “I would do 25 basis points,” Gundlach told the business network, because he is concerned the Fed might oversteer the economy and hasn’t paused long enough to see what affect the previous hikes have already had.

  

  Even as inflation continued to surprise to the upside, the so-called bond king believes deflation is now the bigger threat and suggested that long-term Treasuries will outperform next year as the overly aggressive Fed will slow down the economy.

  “Buy long-term Treasuries,” Gundlach told CNBC’s Scott Wapner at the Future Proof Festival.

  Notably, rate-cut expectations starting next year soared today (implying recessionary forces will push Powell back)…

  

  If inflation turns into deflation, the Fed will be forced to reverse its monetary policy, which could drive bond yields down.

  “In spite of the fact that the narrative today is exactly the opposite, the deflation risk is much higher today than it’s been for the past two years. I’m not talking about next month. I’m talking about sometime later next year, certainly in 2023.”

  In terms of other asset classes, the DoubleLine CEO had some advice for crypto-enthusiasts.

  “I’d certainly not be a buyer [of bitcoin] today,” he said, following today’s carnage. But he added that “you buy crypto when they do free money again,” Gundlach said, referring to The Fed.

  

  Finally, Gundlach said he owns European stocks and sees the biggest opportunity coming in emerging markets.

  He added that he will not buy EM assets until the dollar breaks below its 200 moving avg…

  

  …adding that “When it does, you want to be in big.”

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 09/13/2022 – 19:10

• Arizona Can't Enforce New Election Law In 2022 Election: Clinton-Appointed Judge
  Arizona Can’t Enforce New Election Law In 2022 Election: Clinton-Appointed Judge

  Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Arizona officials can’t enforce a new election measure in the upcoming midterm elections, according to a federal judge.

  

  Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs and other officials shall not “take any action to implement or enforce H.B. 2243 in a manner that would remove any voter’s eligibility to vote in the 2022 general election or disqualify any otherwise-valid ballot on the basis of H.B. 2243,” U.S. District Judge Susan Bolton, a Clinton appointee, said in the Sept. 8 order.

  Bolton accepted a joint agreement and proposed order outlined by the Arizona Asian American Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander for Equity Coalition and state officials, including Hobbs and Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich, presented to the court earlier on Sept. 8.

  The officials and the coalition, which sued over the legislation in August, agreed that “the provisions of H.B. 2243 should not operate in a manner that would prevent any voter from (1) voting in the upcoming November 2022 general election or (2) having their vote be counted.” Hobbs and Brnovich also decided that the changes to the state election code shouldn’t take effect until Jan. 1, 2023, because one of the laws that the legislation is amending isn’t effective itself until then.

  “While we are pleased with this early agreement that protects the right to vote in the next election, we remain steadfast in our commitment to continue to fight both of these voter suppression laws for the long term,” May Tiwamangkala, an official with the coalition, said in a statement. “We are in this fight to protect the rights of all voters in our state, including those from the AANHPI communities.”

  The offices of Hobbs, a Democrat who’s running for Arizona governor, and Brnovich, a Republican who lost in the state’s Republican primary for U.S. Senate, didn’t respond to requests for comment.

  “Democrats have stooped to a new level of shamefulness and depravity with their latest round of lies about Arizona’s common sense laws to ensure that our elections are accessible, secure, and trustworthy,” state Rep. Jake Hoffman, a Republican who sponsored the legislation, told The Epoch Times in an email.

  “Democrats’ cries of racism are laughable on their face and serve only to shine a spotlight on the Democrat Party’s long history of institutionalized racism and repeated attempts to disenfranchise millions of Americans throughout the last century and a half. Make no mistake about it, ensuring clean voter rolls and protecting the sanctity of Arizonans’ votes by prohibiting non-citizens and non-residents from casting illegal ballots benefits every single legal voter regardless of race, gender, income, and party.”

  Legislation

  The legislation amends a law concerning voter registration. It states that the registration will be canceled for a voter who moves to another state.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 09/13/2022 – 18:50

• Disney Employee, School Teacher Among 160 Arrested In Florida Human Trafficking Sting
  Disney Employee, School Teacher Among 160 Arrested In Florida Human Trafficking Sting

  A Disney employee, a corrections officer, and several school teachers were among 160 people arrested in a seven-day long undercover human trafficking sting in Polk County, Florida.

  

  According to WAFB9, the operation – “Fall Haul 2” – resulted in 52 felonies and 216 misdemeanor charges. One of the more notable arrests was that of 41-year-old computer technician for Oak Ridge High School, Cameron Burke, who was out on bond for having a sexual relationship with a 15-year-old student that began in 2020.

  Other notables include a deputy Georgia police chief, a high school math teacher, a bellhop employed by Disney, and a freelance photographer often contacted by Disney.

  The bellhop, Guillermo Perez, 57, was arrested after trying to have sex with an undercover detective for $80, while the freelance photographer, 26-year-old Samy Claude, reportedly offered an undercover cop a bag of sour Skittles.

  The correctional officer, Keith Nieves, 24, was arrested on two counts of soliciting a prostitute.

  The Georgia Deputy Police Chief, Jason DiPrima, 49, allegedly gave an undercover detective $180 and a multi-pack of White Claws.

  “He is no longer a police officer in Cartersville, Georgia, and he needs to work on reconstructing his life with his family. He did a very mean, nasty thing to his family and he certainly embarrassed all the people of Cartersville,” said Polk County Sheriff Grady Judd during a press conference. “The Cartersville Police Department is a very professional police department in Georgia and they didn’t deserve what Jason (DiPrima) did.”

  The oldest of the arrests is 64, while the youngest is 19 years old, according to officials.

  Out of the 160 arrests, 15 people were from states other than Florida, and one was from Puerto Rico.

  Of the people who were arrested, police say 26 of them said they were married.

  Detectives also said they seized cocaine, heroin, meth, MDMA and marijuana from those they arrested as well. –WAFB9

  “Where would we be with an undercover operation and no Disney employees? Oh yes, we always have Disney employees,” joked Judd.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 09/13/2022 – 18:30

• Airline Chaos Could Persist Until 2024, Despite Efforts To Cure Woes
  Airline Chaos Could Persist Until 2024, Despite Efforts To Cure Woes

  Authored by Janice Hisle via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  After a record-breaking summer of angst, aggravation, and anger at America’s airports, little relief may be in sight.

  The problem came into sharper focus during the past few weeks with airline complaints in May and June soaring 270 percent above pre-pandemic levels.

  

  While airlines and federal officials recently announced improved customer service and information-sharing practices with travelers, critics say those measures amount to baby steps. They advocate bigger, more meaningful strides to alleviate the chaos and restore order.

  “When we look at the misery that we’ve seen this last summer, the thought is: How long could it last?” Jay Ratliff, an aviation expert, told The Epoch Times on Sept. 9.

  Ratliff said that the problems predate the COVID-19 pandemic, are more complex than many people realize, and may persist until 2024.

  

  Pandemic Exposed Flaws In System

  While the COVID-19 pandemic was in full swing and air travel slowed to a trickle, consumer complaints and demands for refunds and other compensation burgeoned.

  From January 2020 to June 2021, the the Department of Transportation received 124,823 airline complaints; 83 percent involved refunds. In contrast, the agency received just 15,324 airline complaints in 2019, a DOT analysis says; only about 10 percent of that year’s disputes focused on refunds.

  The number of DOT complaints is especially remarkable because, airline passengers would customarily lodge complaints directly with airlines and were unaware that they could escalate their concerns to the DOT, Ratliff said.

  However, the federal agency’s ability to intervene is somewhat limited because there currently is “no requirement for an airline or a ticket agent to compensate passengers holding non-refundable tickets if they cancel air travel,” the DOT says.

  When the pandemic hit, airlines’ systems were overwhelmed with an unprecedented influx of refund requests. The air carriers also didn’t have enough money to make good on those requests quickly.

  “Passengers entitled to refunds who normally would have received them promptly were left waiting or, in other cases, denied refunds and offered vouchers or travel credits instead,” the DOT said. Some customers faced circumstances that prevented them from taking advantage of the vouchers or travel credits. They ended up with “no compensation at all,” the DOT said.

  Ripple effects of the refund requests spread as the federal government, ticket agents, and credit card companies mediated disputes with disgruntled airline customers.

  

  Staff Shortage Woes

  Meanwhile, even though the federal government provided emergency funding to keep airlines afloat, the companies were forced to cut costs. They furloughed and laid off tens of thousands of employees. As of last year, U.S. airlines employed 4.8 million full-time employees, compared to the pre-pandemic staffing level of almost 5.4 million employees.

  Many highly-compensated employees fell off the rosters because they were offered early retirement packages or quit due to stressful conditions.

  Airline professionals such as pilots and flight attendants require extensive training; replacing them is therefore time-consuming and challenging, Ratliff said.

  Some people theorize that airlines fired large numbers of pilots for refusing to take the government- and airline-mandated COVID-19 inoculations.

  But industry sources doubt that. They say solid statistics are hard to come by. But they told The Epoch Times that many pilots remained employed because they either got the jab or avoided it via a religious exemption.

  Medical conditions are probably responsible for grounding more pilots than vaccine-mandate firings ever did, the sources said. They blame long-term illnesses, some possibly caused by side effects of the shots or consequences of COVID-19.

  In addition, the commercial aviation industry was already facing a pilot shortage several years before the pandemic. That’s because recruiting of pilots from the military, a primary feeder system for commercial airlines, has declined.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 09/13/2022 – 18:10

• "An Ocean Of Red…"
  “An Ocean Of Red…”

  What a shitshow!

  

  Everyone was so sure, so confident, and then boom, CPI printed way hotter than expected…

  

  …and the soft-landing dream was over…

  😂🤣 Oh my!

  via the awesome @ArbitrageAndy1 pic.twitter.com/3ATJPbQSdj

  — PiQ  (@PriapusIQ) September 13, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  While markets turmoiled dramatically, it was the STIRs that highlight the major shift.

  pic.twitter.com/E1p6WqGadZ

  — aspiring_whale (@aspiring__whale) September 13, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The odds of a 100bps next week soared to 47%, the odds of a 75bps hike in November jumped to 60%, and the odds of a 100bps hike in December spike to 50%…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  All of this sent rate-hike expectations for year-end massively higher (actually the biggest jump in history)… and at the same time saw the implied odds of that sparking a recession surge as expectations for subsequent rate-cuts jumped dramatically too…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  The terminal rate for Fed rates is now just below 4.33% in April 2023…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  All of which erased much of the last week’s squeeze-driven surge higher in stocks…The Dow has lost ALL of its gains from the last week’s squeeze…

  “Aaand it’s gone!”

  

  Nasdaq was the day’s biggest loser, down over 5% – its worst day since March 2020… The Dow’s 1200 point loss was the worst day since June 2020…

  

  For the first time since March 2020, every Nasdaq 100 stock closed red…

  

  One day after AAPL’s best day since May, it suffered its worst day since May…

  

  As the short squeeze of the last few days abruptly ended…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  And all the US Majors crashed back below key technical levels (50DMAs)…

  

  Bonds were a bloodbath today with the short-end monkeyhammered most…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  Which sent the yield curve dramatically flatter – with the infamous ‘last hope standing’ 3M10Y spread plunging towards inversion…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  The dollar ripped higher, erasing much of the last few days’ ‘dovish’-hope weakness…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  Cryptos were clubbed like a baby seal with Bitcoin puking from over $22500 to almost $20000 (down over 10% – its worst drop since the June collapse)…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  Spot gold puked back below $1700 but found support there again…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  But, after the Biden admin said it was mulling refilling the SPR, oil prices rallied and almost made it into positive territory on the day…

  

  Finally, it’s catch-down time for stocks once again as tightening expectations slam reality back into the hope-filled face of stocks…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  And bear in mind that we have a $3.2 trillion options expiration on Friday just as the buyback blackout window is closing – brace!

  

  WHITE HOUSE SPOKESPERSON KARINE JEAN-PIERRE SAYS SHE DOES NOT SEE ANY EVIDENCE OF THE NASDAQ BEING DOWN 5% TODAY

  — Stalingrad & Poorski (@Stalingrad_Poor) September 13, 2022

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  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 09/13/2022 – 18:00

• Not Just Nancy: Lawmakers Have Been Trading Like Drunken Insider Sailors
  Not Just Nancy: Lawmakers Have Been Trading Like Drunken Insider Sailors

  Approximately 3,700 stock trades reported by 97 current lawmakers posed potential conflicts of interest, as their financial dealings intersected with the work of committees on which they serve, according to an extensive analysis by the New York Times of trades spanning a two year period (2019 – 2021).

  To examine the potential for conflicts, The Times used a comprehensive database called Capitol Trades, which was compiled from congressional trading disclosures by the German financial data firm 2iQ Research.

  The Times then matched the trades against committee assignments, hearings and investigations to construct a picture of how members’ congressional work and their personal financial transactions could potentially intersect. -NYT

  In just one example, Rep. Alan Lowenthal (D-CA) reported that his wife sold shares in Boeing on March 5, 2020, the day before a House committee on which he sits released a scathing report on the company’s handling of its 737 Max jet, which had been involved in two fatal crashes.

  

  In another case, Ohio Republican Bob Gibbs, who sits on the House Oversight Committee, bought shares in pharmaceutical company AbbVie in 2020 and 2021 while the committee was investigating the company and five rivals over high drug prices.

  

  Democratic Rep. Ro Khanna of California’s filings show that his family members bought or sold shares in AbbVie during the committee’s review, as well as seven other companies under scrutiny by the oversight panel on which Khanna sat.

  

  According to the report, “many instances show how legislative work and investment decisions can overlap in ways that at a minimum can leave the appearance of a conflict and that sometimes form a troubling pattern — even if they technically fall within the rules.

  13 lawmakers were found to have traded in companies that were under investigation by committees they werved on.

  “The American people don’t want us day trading for profit, and engaging in active trading of the very equities that are connected to the policies that we are deciding on and voting on every day,” said Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX), who is co-sponsoring a bill in the House that would require members to put investments in a blind trust – a portfolio managed by an outside adviser who takes no input from the owner.

  The 3,700 potentially conflicted trades constitute over 10% of transactions by members of Congress over the period in question.

  44 of the 50 members of Congress who were most active in the markets bought or sold securities in companies over which their committee assignments could give them some degree of knowledge or influence. –NYT

  Under the 2012 STOCK Act – the sole piece of legislation designed to rein in lawmakers’ trades, most members of Congress are still allowed to make trades that could conflict with their legislative duties – as long as a disclosure is made within 45 days.

  “You’re not getting members of Congress to self-regulate the money they can or can’t make,” one DC insider told the NY Post. “Why would they do something that doesn’t benefit them?”

  Hilariously, Nancy Pelosi isn’t mentioned in the report, because she does not sit on any legislative committees.

  It’s good to be queen…

  

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 09/13/2022 – 17:50

• The Only Potential Benefit Of Central Bank Digital Currencies: Bitcoin Adoption
  The Only Potential Benefit Of Central Bank Digital Currencies: Bitcoin Adoption

  Authored by Pierre Gildenhuys via BitcoinMagazine.com,

  Central Bank Digital Currencies are a dystopian implementation of money and will only benefit society by encouraging people to adopt bitcoin…

  

  Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) are being actively developed and discussed in many major nations in the world including 19 of the G20 countries, and around 105 others worldwide, as shown by Atlantic Council statistics in 2022. They are being advanced rapidly and it is expected that some nations such as Australia, South Korea and the U.S. will start implementing CBDCs in the near future, following the lead of China, who recently began launching theirs in early 2022.

  This is not recent news, but it is something which should be periodically mentioned, as it should scare all of us or at least be of some concern to anyone that utilizes any form of money in their daily lives. There is only one potential benefit to CBDCs: Essentially, governments causing the collapse of their own currencies by removing as many properties of money as they can before people realize that it is no longer salable to anyone else in their nation or around the world.

  CBDCs are said to be inspired by bitcoin — of course, these countries that are rolling these out are likely building them to be the perfect antithesis to the beautifully built bitcoin — with the only potential similarity being a distributed public ledger. However, I postulate that in many governments’ eyes, “a public ledger” denotes being owned, and therefore only accessible by the State because they are the voice of the people (in theory).

  The expected horrors of CBDCs are discussed at length by many Bitcoiners on Twitter and elsewhere, but very few that I have found have had anything good to say, which I would like to change.

  CBDCs will most likely implement primarily Keynesian principles, as it seems to be the prevailing school of economics in most of the western world. Whichever principles a United States CBDC adopts will likely serve as the blueprint for all others. Some of these principles could be money that can expire, be automatically taxed, only be spent in certain sectors and be a fully permission-based form of transaction, meaning that people will be forced to make specific transactions that they may not want, forcing a heightened time preference or being forced to forego investments in sectors of their choosing. Purchases of bitcoin using CBDCs will very likely become impossible or at least increasingly difficult, as no government wants a money competing with the one that they control.

  This is a terrifying prospect. How will Bitcoiners and new adopters acquire more bitcoin before the fiat system inflates itself into collapse? Well, this will possibly create a more circular economy, as fewer people will want to hold their transactional power in the form of a fully centralized and supervised system. They will very likely make the decision to start paying and accepting bitcoin for each and every transaction. This way, they are not forced to spend their money to attempt to “stimulate economic growth” by spending their expiring CBDCs that they would have otherwise saved for a rainy day, or to avoid additional unjust taxes. This is very similar to the exceedingly common practice of many businesses around the world providing their services at a discount for cash payments to avoid paying taxes on those services.

  This was particularly prevalent in places such as Greece, where the practice allegedly started because Greeks did not want to pay taxes to the “foreign” Ottomans who controlled the region at the time. The practice has evidently continued because people feel that an additional taxation on everyday transactions from any power, be it local or foreign, is unjust and excessive. In the eyes of some, this is a form of corruption; however, it should not be labeled as such because corruption implies that the people who are hiding these transactions are in positions of power that they are exploiting, as opposed to being the ones who are exploited by unnecessary taxation by their government.

  It is likely that CBDCs are likely going to phase out the small amount of paper currency that still forms part of world economies today. This means that these countries will rely on technological education and word of mouth explanations as to how it works. This will cause a rise in technological know-how in these nations, meaning it should be ever easier to onboard otherwise unwilling members of society to bitcoin once they realize the false value they are holding instead of a hard money.

  In other words, CBDCs will possibly be the perfect trigger to cause mass adoption and spark a bitcoin circular economy. At the end of the day, it does not matter how much one loves their government or opposes its very existence, the sheer inconvenience of having everyone’s transactions moderated and limited based on arbitrary metrics, such as carbon emission scores or nutritive value scores is enough to turn anyone away from that monetary medium.

  With peoples’ savings potentially being eaten away to promote faster and more spending overall — as has been done with the inflationary practices of the past several decades — people will realize how bad specific Keynesian principles are. These principles are promoted and considered true by many modern economists today. The average people in the modern world using those principles practically have to invest all of their wealth to ensure they are not bankrupted by inflation, while running the risk of potential malinvestments. Many people would be significantly more productive to society by developing their own businesses and would also be happier overall if they could just store their wealth in hard money that consistently appreciates in value with economic growth, instead of being forced to create the meme economy that we have experienced in the past few years. This would likely worsen with the implementation of CBDCs.

  CBDC implementation and adoption will likely not be an overnight change. The time that it would probably take for bitcoin adoption to occur would be heavily dependent on which terrifying features the specific CBDCs implement. These CBDCs will cause a great deal of pain and suffering over the time which they are actively used. The pain that they will bring and the practices they will implement aren’t anything new, but are simply a furthering of currently used practices. This will continue until people begin interacting pseudonymously using bitcoin for their store of wealth and move entirely away from any form of fiat currencies.

  Creating a vibrant, successful circular economy will hasten the adoption and incentive for usage of bitcoin. Harder money with higher salability needs to offer no better incentive for adoption than a rapidly failing currency due to a decline in salability and an increase in inflation. If no one wants your money, why do you keep it? Today, Zimbabwean dollars hold value only as collectors’ items, but have no use for goods and services. In turn, this allowed multiple competing currencies to take its place (primarily the South African rand and the U.S. dollar) until the dollar inevitably won and all of Zimbabwe became dollarized. The same will likely happen to the dollar, and bitcoin will take its place due to inflation and a likely CBDC which will detract all that is good from the dollar.

  There are many other steps that Bitcoin will need to take to allow simplistic adoption for the greater world population. More platforms and wallets will need to begin offering Lightning payments and the use of SMS (text message) transactions, such as the recent development in South Africa. The outlook is somewhat hopeful on the front of CBDCs and their ability to push more people out of fiat and into the world of Bitcoin.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 09/13/2022 – 17:30

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• The Specter Of Germany Is Rising
  The Specter Of Germany Is Rising

  Authored by Diana Johnstone via ConsortiumNews.com,

  The European Union is girding for a long war against Russia that appears clearly contrary to European economic interests and social stability. A war that is apparently irrational – as many are – has deep emotional roots and claims ideological justification. Such wars are hard to end because they extend outside the range of rationality.

  

  Olaf Scholz, Federal Chancellor of Germany, meets Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, in Kiev, Feb. 14, 2022. (President of Ukraine)

  For decades after the Soviet Union entered Berlin and decisively defeated the Third Reich, Soviet leaders worried about the threat of “German revanchism.” Since World War II could be seen as German revenge for being deprived of victory in World War I, couldn’t aggressive German Drang nach Osten be revived, especially if it enjoyed Anglo-American support? There had always been a minority in U.S. and U.K. power circles that would have liked to complete Hitler’s war against the Soviet Union.

  It was not the desire to spread communism, but the need for a buffer zone to stand in the way of such dangers that was the primary motivation for the ongoing Soviet political and military clampdown on the tier of countries from Poland to Bulgaria that the Red Army had wrested from Nazi occupation.

  This concern waned considerably in the early 1980s as a young German generation took to the streets in peace demonstrations against the stationing of nuclear “Euromissiles” which could increase the risk of nuclear war on German soil. The movement created the image of a new peaceful Germany. I believe that Mikhail Gorbachev took this transformation seriously.

  On June 15, 1989, Gorbachev came to Bonn, which was then the modest capital of a deceptively modest West Germany. Apparently delighted with the warm and friendly welcome, Gorbachev stopped to shake hands with people along the way in that peaceful university town that had been the scene of large peace demonstrations.

  I was there and experienced his unusually warm, firm handshake and eager smile. I have no doubt that Gorbachev sincerely believed in a “common European home” where East and West Europe could live happily side by side united by some sort of democratic socialism.

  

  Gorbachov on June 13, 1989 in the market-square in Bonn. (Jüppsche/Wikimedia Commons)

  Gorbachev died at age 91 two weeks ago, on Aug. 30. His dream of Russia and Germany living happily in their “common European home” had soon been fatally undermined by the Clinton administration’s go-ahead to eastward expansion of NATO. But the day before Gorbachev’s death, leading German politicians in Prague wiped out any hope of such a happy end by proclaiming their leadership of a Europe dedicated to combating the Russian enemy.

  These were politicians from the very parties – the SPD (Social Democratic Party) and the Greens – that took the lead in the 1980s peace movement.

  German Europe Must Expand Eastward

  German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is a colorless SPD politician, but his Aug. 29 speech in Prague was inflammatory in its implications. Scholz called for an expanded, militarized European Union under German leadership. He claimed that the Russian operation in Ukraine raised the question of “where the dividing line will be in the future between this free Europe and a neo-imperial autocracy.” We cannot simply watch, he said, “as free countries are wiped off the map and disappear behind walls or iron curtains.”

  (Note: the conflict in Ukraine is clearly the unfinished business of the collapse of the Soviet Union, aggravated by malicious outside provocation. As in the Cold War, Moscow’s defensive reactions are interpreted as harbingers of Russian invasion of Europe, and thus a pretext for arms buildups.)

  To meet this imaginary threat, Germany will lead an expanded, militarized EU. First, Scholz told his European audience in the Czech capital, “I am committed to the enlargement of the European Union to include the states of the Western Balkans, Ukraine, Moldova and, in the long term, Georgia”. Worrying about Russia moving the dividing line West is a bit odd while planning to incorporate three former Soviet States, one of which (Georgia) is geographically and culturally very remote from Europe but on Russia’s doorstep.

  In the “Western Balkans”, Albania and four extremely weak statelets left from former Yugoslavia (North Macedonia, Montenegro, Bosnia-Herzegovina and widely unrecognized Kosovo) mainly produce emigrants and are far from EU economic and social standards. Kosovo and Bosnia are militarily occupied de facto NATO protectorates. Serbia, more solid than the others, shows no signs of renouncing its beneficial relations with Russia and China, and popular enthusiasm for “Europe” among Serbs has faded.

  Adding these member states will achieve “a stronger, more sovereign, geopolitical European Union,” said Scholz. A “more geopolitical Germany” is more like it. As the EU grows eastward, Germany is “in the center” and will do everything to bring them all together. So, in addition to enlargement, Scholz calls for “a gradual shift to majority decisions in common foreign policy” to replace the unanimity required today.

  What this means should be obvious to the French. Historically, the French have defended the consensus rule so as not to be dragged into a foreign policy they don’t want. French leaders have exalted the mythical “Franco-German couple” as guarantor of European harmony, mainly to keep German ambitions under control.

  But Scholz says he doesn’t want “an EU of exclusive states or directorates,” which implies the final divorce of that “couple.” With an EU of 30 or 36 states, he notes, “fast and pragmatic action is needed.” And he can be sure that German influence on most of these poor, indebted and often corrupt new Member States will produce the needed majority.

  France has always hoped for an EU security force separate from NATO in which the French military would play a leading role. But Germany has other ideas. “NATO remains the guarantor of our security,” said Scholz, rejoicing that President Biden is “a convinced trans-atlanticist.”

  “Every improvement, every unification of European defense structures within the EU framework strengthens NATO,” Scholz said. “Together with other EU partners, Germany will therefore ensure that the EU’s planned rapid reaction force is operational in 2025 and will then also provide its core.

  This requires a clear command structure. Germany will face up to this responsibility “when we lead the rapid reaction force in 2025,” Scholz said. It has already been decided that Germany will support Lithuania with a rapidly deployable brigade and NATO with further forces in a high state of readiness.

  Serving to Lead … Where?

  

  Robert Habeck speaking at protest before Green Party headquarters, Berlin, Oct. 28, 2020. (Leonhard Lenz/Wikimedia Commons)

  In short, Germany’s military buildup will give substance to Robert Habeck’s notorious statement in Washington last March that: “The stronger Germany serves, the greater its role.” The Green’s Habeck is Germany’s economics minister and the second most powerful figure in Germany’s current government.

  The remark was well understood in Washington: by serving the U.S.-led Western empire, Germany is strengthening its role as European leader. Just as the U.S. arms, trains and occupies Germany, Germany will provide the same services for smaller EU states, notably to its east.

  Since the start of the Russian operation in Ukraine, German politician Ursula von der Leyen has used her position as head of the EU Commission to impose ever more drastic sanctions on Russia, leading to the threat of a serious European energy crisis this winter. Her hostility to Russia seems boundless. In Kiev last April she called for rapid EU membership for Ukraine, notoriously the most corrupt country in Europe and far from meeting EU standards. She proclaimed that “Russia will descend into economic, financial and technological decay, while Ukraine is marching towards a European future.” For von der Leyen, Ukraine is “fighting our war.” All of this goes far beyond her authority to speak for the EU’s 27 Members, but nobody stops her.

  Germany’s Green Party foreign minister Annalena Baerbock is every bit as intent on “ruining Russia.” Proponent of a “feminist foreign policy”, Baerbock expresses policy in personal terms. “If I give the promise to people in Ukraine, we stand with you as long as you need us,” she told the U.S. National Endowment for Democracy (NED)-sponsored Forum 2000 in Prague on Aug. 31, speaking in English. “Then I want to deliver no matter what my German voters think, but I want to deliver to the people of Ukraine.”

  “People will go on the street and say, we cannot pay our energy prices, and I will say, ‘Yes I know so we will help you with social measures. […] We will stand with Ukraine and this means the sanctions will stay also til winter time even if it gets really tough for politicians.’”

  Certainly, support for Ukraine is strong in Germany, but perhaps because of the looming energy shortage, a recent Forsa poll indicates that some 77 percent of Germans would favor diplomatic efforts to end the war – which should be the business of the foreign minister. But Baerbock shows no interest in diplomacy, only in “strategic failure” for Russia – however long it takes.

  In the 1980s peace movement, a generation of Germans was distancing itself from that of their parents and vowed to overcome “enemy images” inherited from past wars. Curiously, Baerbock, born in 1980, has referred to her grandfather who fought in the Wehrmacht as somehow having contributed to European unity. Is this the generational pendulum?

  The Little Revanchists

  

  Stepan Bandera torchlight parade in Kiev, Jan. 1, 2020. (A1/Wikimedia Commons)

  There is reason to surmise that current German Russophobia draws much of its legitimization from the Russophobia of former Nazi allies in smaller European countries.

  While German anti-Russian revanchism may have taken a couple of generations to assert itself, there were a number of smaller, more obscure revanchisms that flourished at the end of the European war that were incorporated into United States Cold War operations. Those little revanchisms were not subjected to the denazification gestures or Holocaust guilt imposed on Germany. Rather, they were welcomed by the C.I.A., Radio Free Europe and Congressional committees for their fervent anticommunism. They were strengthened politically in the United States by anticommunist diasporas from Eastern Europe.

  Of these, the Ukrainian diaspora was surely the largest, the most intensely political and the most influential, in both Canada and the American Middle West. Ukrainian fascists who had previously collaborated with Nazi invaders were the most numerous and active, leading the Bloc of Anti-Bolshevik Nations with links to German, British and U.S. Intelligence.

  Eastern European Galicia, not to be confused with Spanish Galicia, has been back and forth part of Russia and Poland for centuries. After World War II it was divided between Poland and Ukraine. Ukrainian Galicia is the center of a virulent brand of Ukrainian nationalism, whose principal World War II hero was Stepan Bandera. This nationalism can properly be called “fascist” not simply because of superficial signs – its symbols, salutes or tatoos – but because it has always been fundamentally racist and violent.

  Incited by Western powers, Poland, Lithuania and the Habsburg Empire, the key to Ukrainian nationalism was that it was Western, and thus superior. Since Ukrainians and Russians stem from the same population, pro-Western Ukrainian ultra-nationalism was built on imaginary myths of racial differences: Ukrainians were the true Western whatever-it-was, whereas Russians were mixed with “Mongols” and thus an inferior race. Banderist Ukrainian nationalists have openly called for elimination of Russians as such, as inferior beings.

  So long as the Soviet Union existed, Ukrainian racial hatred of Russians had anticommunism as its cover, and Western intelligence agencies could support them on the “pure” ideological grounds of the fight against Bolshevism and Communism. But now that Russia is no longer ruled by communists, the mask has fallen, and the racist nature of Ukrainian ultra-nationalism is visible – for all who want to see it.

  However, Western leaders and media are determined not to notice.

  Ukraine is not just like any Western country. It is deeply and dramatically divided between Donbass in the East, Russian territories given to Ukraine by the Soviet Union, and the anti-Russian West, where Galacia is located. Russia’s defense of Donbass, wise or unwise, by no means indicates a Russian intention to invade other countries. This false alarm is the pretext for the remilitarization of Germany in alliance with the Anglo-Saxon powers against Russia.

  The Yugoslav Prelude

  

  Cutting firewood in Sarajevo during wars that broke up Yugoslavia, 1993. (Christian Maréchal/Wikimedia Commons)

  This process began in the 1990s, with the breakup of Yugoslavia.

  Yugoslavia was not a member of the Soviet bloc. Precisely for that reason, the country got loans from the West which in the 1970s led to a debt crisis in which the leaders of each of the six federated republics wanted to shove the debt onto others. This favored separatist tendencies in the relatively rich Slovenian and Croatian republics, tendencies enforced by ethnic chauvinism and encouragement from outside powers, especially Germany.

  During World War II, German occupation had split the country apart. Serbia, allied to France and Britain in World War I, was subject to a punishing occupation. Idyllic Slovenia was absorbed into the Third Reich, while Germany supported an independent Croatia, ruled by the fascist Ustasha party, which included most of Bosnia, scene of the bloodiest internal fighting. When the war ended, many Croatian Ustasha emigrated to Germany, the United States and Canada, never giving up the hope of reviving secessionist Croatian nationalism.

  In Washington in the 1990s, members of Congress got their impressions of Yugoslavia from a single expert: 35-year-old Croatian-American Mira Baratta, assistant to Sen. Bob Dole (Republican presidential candidate in 1996). Baratta’s grandfather had been an important Ustasha officer in Bosnia and her father was active in the Croatian diaspora in California. Baratta won over not only Dole but virtually the whole Congress to the Croatian version of Yugoslav conflicts blaming everything on the Serbs.

  In Europe, Germans and Austrians, most notably Otto von Habsburg, heir to the defunct Austro-Hungarian Empire and member of the European Parliament from Bavaria, succeeded in portraying Serbs as the villains, thus achieving an effective revenge against their historic World War I enemy, Serbia. In the West, it became usual to identify Serbia as “Russia’s historic ally”, forgetting that in recent history Serbia’s closest allies were Britain and especially France.

  In September 1991, a leading German Christian Democratic politician and constitutional lawyer explained why Germany should promote the breakup of Yugoslavia by recognizing the Slovenian and Croat secessionist Yugoslav republics. (Former CDU Minister of Defense Rupert Scholz at the 6th Fürstenfeldbrucker Symposium for the Leadership of the German Military and Business, held September 23 – 24, 1991.)

  By ending the division of Germany, Rupert Scholz said, “We have, so to speak, overcome and mastered the most important consequences of the Second World War … but in other areas we are still dealing with the consequences of the First World War” – which, he noted “started in Serbia.”

  “Yugoslavia, as a consequence of the First World War, is a very artificial construction, never compatible with the idea of self-determination,” Rupert Scholz said. He concluded: “In my opinion, Slovenia and Croatia must be immediately recognized internationally. (…) When this recognition has taken place, the Yugoslavian conflict will no longer be a domestic Yugoslav problem, where no international intervention can be permitted.”

  And indeed, recognition was followed by massive Western intervention which continues to this day. By taking sides, Germany, the United States and NATO ultimately produced a disastrous result, a half dozen statelets, with many unsettled issues and heavily dependent on Western powers. Bosnia-Herzegovina is under military occupation as well as the dictates of a “High Representative” who happens to be German. It has lost about half its population to emigration.

  Only Serbia shows signs of independence, refusing to join in Western sanctions on Russia, despite heavy pressure. For Washington strategists the breakup of Yugoslavia was an exercise in using ethnic divisions to break up larger entities, the USSR and then Russia.

  Humanitarian Bombing

  Western politicians and media persuaded the public that the 1999 NATO bombing of Serbia was a “humanitarian” war, generously waged to “protect the Kosovars” (after multiple assassinations by armed secessionists provoked Serbian authorities into the inevitable repression used as pretext for the bombing).

  But the real point of the Kosovo war was that it transformed NATO from a defensive into an aggressive alliance, ready to wage war anywhere, without U.N. mandate, on whatever pretext it chose.

  This lesson was clear to the Russians. After the Kosovo war, NATO could no longer credibly claim that it was a purely “defensive” alliance.

  As soon as Serbian President Milosevic, to save his country’s infrastructure from NATO destruction, agreed to allow NATO troops to enter Kosovo, the U.S. unceremoniously grabbed a huge swath territory to build the its first big U.S. military base in the Balkans. NATO troops are still there.

  Just as the United States rushed to build that base in Kosovo, it was clear what to expect of the U.S. after it succeeded in 2014 to install a government in Kiev eager to join NATO. This would be the opportunity for the U.S. to take over the Russian naval base in Crimea. Since it was known that the majority of the population in Crimea wanted to return to Russia (as it had from 1783 to 1954), Putin was able to forestall this threat by holding a popular referendum confirming its return.

  East European Revanchism Captures the EU

  The call by German Chancellor Scholz to enlarge the European Union by up to nine new members recalls the enlargements of 2004 and 2007 that brought in twelve new members, nine of them from the former Soviet bloc, including the three Baltic States once part of the Soviet Union.

  That enlargement already shifted the balance eastward and enhanced German influence. In particular, the political elites of Poland and especially the three Baltic States, were heavily under the influence of the United States and Britain, where many had lived in exile during Soviet rule. They brought into EU institutions a new wave of fanatic anticommunism, not always distinguishable from Russophobia.

  The European Parliament, obsessed with virtue signaling in regard to human rights, was particularly receptive to the zealous anti-totalitarianism of its new Eastern European members.

  

   European Parliament in Strasbourg, France. (UN Photo/Eskinder Debebe)

  Revanchism and the Memory Weapon

  As an aspect of anti-communist lustration, or purges, Eastern European States sponsored “Memory Institutes” devoted to denouncing the crimes of communism. Of course, such campaigns were used by far-right politicians to cast suspicion on the left in general. As explained by European scholar Zoltan Dujisin, “anticommunist memory entrepreneurs” at the head of these institutes succeeded in lifting their public information activities from the national, to the European Union level, using Western bans on Holocaust denial to complain, that while Nazi crimes had been condemned and punished at Nuremberg, communist crimes had not.

  The tactic of the anti-communist entrepreneurs was to demand that references to the Holocaust be accompanied by denunciations of the Gulag. This campaign had to deal with a delicate contradiction since it tended to challenge the uniqueness of the Holocaust, a dogma essential to gaining financial and political support from West European memory institutes.

  In 2008, the EP adopted a resolution establishing August 23 as “European Day of Remembrance for the victims of Stalinism and Nazism” – for the first time adopting what had been a fairly isolated far right equation of. A 2009 EP resolution on “European Conscience and Totalitarianism” called for support of national institutes specializing in totalitarian history.

  Dujisin explains, “Europe is now haunted by the specter of a new memory. The Holocaust’s singular standing as a negative founding formula of European integration, the culmination of long-standing efforts from prominent Western leaders … is increasingly challenged by a memory of communism, which disputes its uniqueness.”

  East European memory institutes together formed the “Platform of European Memory and Conscience,” which between 2012 and 2016 organized a series of exhibits on “Totalitarianism in Europe: Fascism—Nazism—Communism,” traveling to museums, memorials, foundations, city halls, parliaments, cultural centers, and universities in 15 European countries, supposedly to “improve public awareness and education about the gravest crimes committed by the totalitarian dictatorships.”

  Under this influence, the European Parliament on Sept. 19, 2019 adopted a resolution “on the importance of European Remembrance for the Future of Europe” that went far beyond equating political crimes by proclaiming a distinctly Polish interpretation of history as European Union policy. It goes so far as to proclaim that the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact is responsible for World War II – and thus Soviet Russia is as guilty of the war as Nazi Germany.

  The resolution,

  “Stresses that the Second World War, the most devastating war in Europe’s history, was started as an immediate result of the notorious Nazi-Soviet Treaty on Non-Aggression of 23 August 1939, also known as the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, and its secret protocols, whereby two totalitarian regimes that shared the goal of world conquest divided Europe into two zones of influence;”

  It further:

  “Recalls that the Nazi and communist regimes carried out mass murders, genocide and deportations and caused a loss of life and freedom in the 20th century on a scale unseen in human history, and recalls the horrific crime of the Holocaust perpetrated by the Nazi regime; condemns in the strongest terms the acts of aggression, crimes against humanity and mass human rights violations perpetrated by the Nazi, communist and other totalitarian regimes;”

  This of course not only directly contradicts the Russian celebration of the “Great Patriotic War” to defeat the Nazi invasion, it also took issue with the recent efforts of Russian President Vladimir Putin to put the Molotov-Ribbentrop agreement in the context of prior refusals of Eastern European states, notably Poland, to ally with Moscow against Hitler.

  But the EP resolution:

  “Is deeply concerned about the efforts of the current Russian leadership to distort historical facts and whitewash crimes committed by the Soviet totalitarian regime and considers them a dangerous component of the information war waged against democratic Europe that aims to divide Europe, and therefore calls on the Commission to decisively counteract these efforts;”

  Thus the importance of Memory for the future, turns out to be an ideological declaration of war against Russia based on interpretations of World War II, especially since the memory entrepreneurs implicitly suggest that the past crimes of communism deserve punishment – like the crimes of Nazism. It is not impossible that this line of thought arouses some tacit satisfaction among certain individuals in Germany.

  When Western leaders speak of “economic war against Russia,” or “ruining Russia” by arming and supporting Ukraine, one wonders whether they are consciously preparing World War III, or trying to provide a new ending to World War II. Or will the two merge?

  As it shapes up, with NATO openly trying to “overextend” and thus defeat Russia with a war of attrition in Ukraine, it is somewhat as if Britain and the United States, some 80 years later, switched sides and joined German-dominated Europe to wage war against Russia, alongside the heirs to Eastern European anticommunism, some of whom were allied to Nazi Germany.

  History may help understand events, but the cult of memory easily becomes the cult of revenge. Revenge is a circle with no end. It uses the past to kill the future. Europe needs clear heads looking to the future, able to understand the present.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 09/13/2022 – 02:00

• Bear Traps' Highest Conviction Trade: A Perfect Storm Is About To Hammer The Dollar
  Bear Traps’ Highest Conviction Trade: A Perfect Storm Is About To Hammer The Dollar

  At a time when Wall Street is stuck in a furious debate with itself whether or not the Fed will pivot because inflation this or that, we recently proposed on Sept 1 an alternative theory: the coming Fed pivot will come not because an “inflation target has been hit” (it won’t be for quite a while, especially since US unemployment will need to rise by over 4 million to contain inflation, a political unpalatable outcome), but because the dollar is soaring, and recently hit almost daily all time highs. As such we suggested that the Fed pivot will come not because of inflation but due to “devastation across the ROW.”

  BBG dollar index 1300, back over covid panic highs, and new record as dollar margin call sweeps emerging markets. Pivot will not come from “inflation target is hit” but from devastation across ROW pic.twitter.com/C3h15bko0B

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 1, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Over a week later, we were surprised that someone even as patently clueless as Paul “fax machine” Krugman had figured out that the multi-trillion global dollar short squeeze is having catastrophic consequences on the rest of the world, when he wrote that “whatever the reasons, however, it’s clear that the strong dollar is inflicting a lot of pain on economies around the world. Once again, it’s our currency but their problem. Should this influence policy?“

  Claudia Sahm, a former Fed economist (inventor of the famous Sahm Rule recession indicator), has been a strong critic of the Fed’s hard line on inflation and more recently has been arguing passionately that the Fed has a responsibility to consider the damage its policies are inflicting on the rest of the world. She has a point. Unfortunately, I don’t think the Fed will listen — yet.

  But…

  Federal Reserve officials are still deeply worried about the possibility that high inflation will get entrenched in the U.S. economy, and that concern will dominate everything else until there are clear signs that underlying inflation is coming down. Once the Fed feels that it has some breathing room, however, it should start taking international repercussions into account. The dollar may be other countries’ problem, but even a purely self-interested America needs to live in the world our policies help shape.

  Of course, the growing USD-bearish consensus is hardly news to Zero Hedge readers who knew more than two weeks ago that according to Michael Hartnett, the most accurate Wall Street analyst of 2022 by far, the top trade of 2023 will be to short the dollar, while going long the inverse trade, EMs:

  The Trade of 2023: it’s “short US dollar, long Emerging Markets”… but only after the US recession starts (which will mark peak US$) and China troughs (likely after the coming China currency devaluation).

  All of which brings us to the latest Bear Traps note by Larry McDonald, who not only echoes everything we have previously said about the Fed’s coming funding squeeze (see “The Fed Is Quietly Paying $250 Million To A Handful Of Happy Banks Every Single Day” from July 1) but puts the coming dollars crisis in stark contrast.

  Here is how Larry explains it:

  After the Great Financial Crisis – regulators wanted to make sure the U.S. financial system would never again succumb to the double-edged sword of excess leverage. Regulators forced U.S. banks to “reserve up” and so – for the last 14 years – Wall Street’s financial epicenter stored an ever-enormous dollar number of reserves – mostly found in U.S. Treasuries.

  Today, as promised the Fed must pay these banks MORE and MORE interest on these reserves. As the central bank hikes rates – the unintended consequences are MOUNTING along with a political backlash – potentially louder than a Donald Trump appearance on “The View.”

  This time next year, the Federal Government is looking at a near $400B negative swing;

  • a) from profit to a loss on the Fed’s transfer of net interest income – triggered by a surge in interest payments to banks on reserves,
  • b) plus $200B additional interest on their $31T debt load.

  Dollar headwinds are mounting from; emerging market credit risk, China currency devaluation, the Eurozone energy crisis, a weaker U.S. consumer (see Capital One CDS), and one-year inflation expectations crashing at the fastest pace since the fall of Lehman Brothers.

  Sit back, think of taking the Fed Funds rate from 25bps in March to 325bps this month, that’s three years of accommodation withdrawal in just six months. The price has yet to be paid for this violent right hook. A freshman-year economist can tell you it will take 12-24 months for the full effects to play out.

  Now think of great films. Anyone that ́s ever seen the Hollywood classics in “Top Gun” knows how “Maverick” plays the game. Take extreme chances and push your next move as close to recklessness as possible – make the other-side believe there are no limits to your unpredictable path – when you know in your heart of hearts there are.

  Running, not walking while blind in the dark. This is Powell ́s dangerous dollar–rates game.

  Make NO mistake, the Fed knows what they don’t know. It’s time to get real. No academic on this planet can calculate the 12–24-month forward outcome of 300-450bps of rate hikes and $1T of QT – all delivered in less time than a “Hamilton” intermission on Broadway.

  The whole lot has been tossed on a massively levered global financial system. They have very publicly sold investors on a path littered with incalculable risks with their pawns delivering weekly golf claps along the way.

  After all the drama, genesis knocked on the door early Wednesday morning after breakfast. The truth is starting to come out. “Fed’s Brainard: There’s a risk of raising rates too much” – said Axios.

  Let’s be clear, the S&P 500 is up nearly 4% since Lael started to acknowledge two-sided economic risks of a “global nature…. risks with overtightening.” Gold miners are 8-10% higher since the speech.

  When stocks rally like this into a tape filled with really bad news, there is almost always a central banker behind the move. As much as “Maverick” shows off his dance with darkness, the political will to kill inflation just isn’t there.

  Here we agree 100%: in fact this was our (rare) criticism of Zoltan Pozsar’s August note “War and Interest Rates“, in which the Hungarian predicted that Powell will pull a Volcker and push rates into the stratosphere. We countered that there is no way this will happen, since the tradeoff would be a crushing recession and millions unemployed as even Obama’s chief economist Jason Furman admitted late last week. In fact, with inflation now trending back down, we expect the Fed to pivot very soon, a move which will reverberate across commodities and send prices truly exponentially higher… but not for a few months. Meanwhile, the dollar will be crushed as near record longs scramble to cover. And speaking of the cost of fighting runaway inflation, McDonald writes that…

  In reality, similar to the 1970s, it’s a social price just too high. As the breadth of bearishness rose, in recent weeks we covered half our shorts, and added to longs. JPM notes that after front-end rates have screamed 10x + higher, there are $15T of adjusted excess cash balances outstanding, or 16% of World GDP – highest level on record.

  Bottom line: re-read Hartnett’s “top trade of 2023” reco: it could, and most likely will be, the most profitable trade of the coming year. Not surprisingly, his top trade is identical to what McDonald sees as the best risk-reward looking out 12 months: “Our high conviction – U.S. dollar bear basket is locked and loaded – EWZ Brazil, EEM Emerging Markets, FXI – KWEB China, global value names in EWU and gold miners GDX.”

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/12/2022 – 23:40

• Fuel Efficiency Tops Safety As Most Important Factor When Buying A Car
  Fuel Efficiency Tops Safety As Most Important Factor When Buying A Car

  Buying a car is for many, one of the biggest purchases they will ever make.

  There are a lot of factors to consider in choosing the right one, but which are prioritized by potential buyers in the United States?

  As Martin Armstrong details below, using data from Statista’s Global Consumer Survey, at the top of the checklist are fuel efficiency and safety (switching places since 2018).

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  With 56 and 55 percent, respectively, these two characteristics easily outpunch a low price, with 46 percent saying this was a top priority when shopping around.

  Even design isn’t as important as the classic TV advert might lead us to believe.

  Only 32 percent seem to be primarily concerned with the appearance of their new car. It’s substance over style for the average car buyer, with 43 percent of respondents saying they prioritize high quality, while driving comfort also ranks more highly than design.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/12/2022 – 23:20

• Armenia Requests Russian Military Assistance As Fighting Breaks Out With Azerbaijan
  Armenia Requests Russian Military Assistance As Fighting Breaks Out With Azerbaijan

  Update (2305ET): The overnight outbreak of fighting in multiple spots along the Armenian-Azerbaijan border is serious enough for Yerevan to have asked for its powerful ally Russia’s help. This has been revealed hours after Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan held a late night telephone conversation with President Vladimir Putin. The Armenian government has since confirmed it has requested Russian military assistance to repel Azerbaijan aggression and shelling, according to a statement (machine translation):

  “During the meeting, further steps were discussed to counter the aggressive actions of Azerbaijan against the sovereign territory of Armenia that began at midnight. In connection with the aggression against the sovereign territory of the Republic of Armenia, it was decided to officially appeal to the Russian Federation in order to implement the provisions of the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance, as well as to the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the UN Security Council. 

  Armenia is basing the request on the Collective Security Treaty Organization pact it has with Russia, and under which Russia previously sent peacekeeping forces to Nagorno-Karabakh after the Fall 2020 conflict. 

  Independent geopolitical analyst and Russia watcher Clint Ehrlich concludes of the hugely significant request at a time the Ukraine war is raging: “If Russia accepts, we could see a second NATO-Russia proxy war explode.”

  The Armed Forces of Azerbaijan are shelling Armenia. Local reports indicate that the residents of Jermuk, Goris and Vardenis took shelter in the basements. pic.twitter.com/p9piXkqbqB

  — Vugar Bakhshalizade (@vbakhshalizade) September 12, 2022

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  Of the earlier in the night Putin phone call, the Kremlin said via TASS: 

  “The Prime Minister gave details about the provocative, aggressive actions of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces in the direction of the sovereign territory of Armenia, which began at midnight and were accompanied by shelling from artillery and large-caliber firearms. The Prime Minister considered the actions of the Azerbaijani side unacceptable and stressed the importance of an adequate response from the international community.”

  However, it should be noted that during the last major flare-up in fighting between the two longtime rival nations which share a restive border, Moscow was careful to not get too deeply drawn in – only agreeing to help broker a ceasefire and send several hundred Russian peacekeeping forces to oversee the terms of the agreement.

  If Moscow does get pulled in, it might be seen in the West as an opportunity to “weaken” Russian forces on a separate front.

  The same day Azerbaijan launched a cross-border attack on Armenia, Azerbaijan’s Energy Minister bragged that AZ gas exports to Europe will increase by 30% this year. pic.twitter.com/KZpXuxzj6d

  — Lindsey Snell (@LindseySnell) September 12, 2022

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  Some US Congressional leaders have meanwhile spoken out and stood firmly on the side of Armenia, citing unprovoked Azerbaijan aggression.

  Azerbaijan has reportedly shelled the homes of innocent civilians in Artsakh and is now attacking Armenia’s border.

  An egregious violation of the ceasefire and direct attack on Armenia’s sovereignty.

  The U.S. must halt all assistance to Azerbaijan – immediately and permanently.

  — Adam Schiff (@RepAdamSchiff) September 13, 2022

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  * * *

  Heavy fighting has broken out between Armenia and Azerbaijan along the border shortly after midnight local time, with the ministry of defenses for both countries citing clashes at several locations. Armenia is saying its territory is coming under attack, and that intensive shelling is currently targeting Goris, Sotk and Jermuk in the east.

  Crucially there are reports of exchanges of fire beyond far beyond the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region, but shelling on Armenia proper. “Azerbaijani Armed Forces have launched military offensive against Armenian positions in Armenia proper,” writes one regional correspondent.

  Heavy artillery fire being reported from Azerbaijan towards Armenia. pic.twitter.com/q3uNO4mJHi

  — Moshe Schwartz (@YWNReporter) September 12, 2022

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  It appears the fighting has already been sustained for two hours, suggesting this could be the beginning of a broader full-scale war as tensions have simmered going back to the last war for Nagorno-Karabakh in September through November 2020.

  Arman Torosyan, spokesman for Armenia’s Defense Ministry has confirmed that “intense skirmishes are continuing following Azerbaijan’s large-scale provocation along the Armenia-Azerbaijan border.” Both sides are now charging the other with aggression and provocations. 

  The Jerusalem Post is additionally reporting that “large clashes broke out between Armenia and Azerbaijan forces along the border between the two countries on Monday night, according to Azerbaijani and Armenian Defense Ministries.”

  “Azerbaijani artillery and UAVs reportedly targeted sites in Vardenis, Goris, Sotk and Jermuk in eastern Armenia.”

  Below is the full Azerbaijan defense ministry statement:

  Statement from Azerbaijan’s defense ministry, claiming they are taking “decisive response measures” against Armenian forces.

  They claim they were attacked from inside Armenian territory – not Nagorno-Karabakh – and are now responding. Armenia reports shelling near cities. pic.twitter.com/4rjgbyjb9j

  — Gabriel Gavin (@GabrielCSGavin) September 12, 2022

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  Contesting these Azerbaijan accusations of a “sabotage” operation which were alleged to have kicked off the fresh hostilities, Armenia’s military countered with the following official statement:

  On September 13, at 00:05, units of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces began to fire intensively at the Armenian positions from artillery and large-caliber firearms in the direction of Goris, Sotk and Jermuk. The Azerbaijani Armed Forces also use UAVs.

  Complicating matters, there are still several hundred Russian peacekeeping troops in the restive Nagorno-Karabakh border region, as part of the settlement from the last round of fighting centered there.

  Azerbaijani armed forces allegedly shelling the town of Jermuk. pic.twitter.com/fAi90Sg3Ye

  — Tigran Grigoryan (@Tigartsakh) September 12, 2022

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  BREAKING:

  There are active reports of mortar use and explosions on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. This may be a full invasion. Shots are being heard from Vardenis, Jermuk, Goris, and Tatev.

  This is NOT the contested region of Artsakh. This is Armenia proper. pic.twitter.com/DIxGEcYhrw

  — Kars Collective (@KarsCollective) September 12, 2022

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  This peacekeeping mission is now in doubt, and Russia’s major base in Armenia territory is said to be on “high alert”. 

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/12/2022 – 23:05

• Life For Border Ranchers: Assaulted, Dogs Beaten, Fences Destroyed, Dead Bodies
  Life For Border Ranchers: Assaulted, Dogs Beaten, Fences Destroyed, Dead Bodies

  Authored by Charlotte Cuthbertson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Ranchers along the south Texas border are having their livelihoods crushed by the volume of illegal aliens trampling through their properties, assaulting and threatening them, beating their dogs, cutting fences, destroying water lines, and breaking into their homes.

  

  Some have moved their families off the property for safety and ranch managers are quitting their jobs.

  One rancher has found 17 dead bodies on his property this year, and on three occasions he had his young children with him.

  “How am I supposed to explain to a young child what a dead body is doing there, rotting, just laying there?” rancher and wildlife biologist Ben Binnion said in front of the Texas Senate Committee on Border Security in Eagle Pass, Texas, on Aug. 10.

  “My kids shouldn’t have to see that, especially on private property.”

  Binnion manages about 150,000 acres of ranchland, which is mainly used for recreation hunting, 10 miles off the U.S.–Mexico border.

  

  Nine years ago, when he first moved to the Maverick County ranch, he said Border Patrol apprehended 37 illegal aliens on his property during the year. Right now, he sees an average of 200 illegal aliens per night on the cameras he’s personally set up.

  “They’re absolutely trashing our fences,” Binnion said. “​​I had to hire a full time employee who spends 40 hours a week fixing fences and picking up trash. And that’s literally all he does.”

  He said he’s added security cameras and installed hurricane shutters on the ranch houses to prevent break-ins.

  “The houses that are not secure, we have to leave unlocked because they break the windows to get in. Those houses are broken into at least once a week,” he said.

  “I’ve actually moved my wife and kids off the ranch due to safety reasons. I don’t want to put them in that danger.”

  Binnion said the financial loss is tough to estimate, but he’s looking at about $300,000 so far this year from patching the damage being done.

  “And that is simply putting a bandaid on a bullet hole. That has nothing to do with replacing anything. If we were to replace everything it’d be $800,000 plus,” he said.

  “We’re actually looking at hiring additional security for hunting season so our guests feel safer.”

  Maverick County shares 88 miles of international border with Mexico, which is divided by the winding Rio Grande. It has one of the highest rates of “gotaways”—up to 10,000 per month—of all 31 counties that border Mexico. Gotaways are recorded by Border Patrol as having been detected, but not apprehended.

  The illegal alien gotaways traversing this region are trying to evade law enforcement because they are either criminals, previously deported, or they know they won’t gain legal entry.

  Such was the case with a Colombian man being smuggled in a vehicle headed to San Antonio after he entered through Maverick County. The man, along with five other illegal aliens were stopped in Kinney County and apprehended. Once Border Patrol took the six into custody, agents discovered the Colombian is wanted for child sex offenses in the United States.

  

  ‘Completely Insane’

  The border ranchers rarely call Border Patrol for help anymore. Agents are usually too tied up processing large groups of illegal aliens to respond. The ranchers’ main lifeline now are Texas state troopers, who Gov. Greg Abbott has deployed to border areas to provide some relief from the unending streams of traffic surging across the border.

  Christopher Roswell’s family has owned property in Maverick County for several generations and he’s lived there for 26 years.

  “What I’ve witnessed over the last two years has been completely insane. Safety has become a major concern. My wife, my kids, our employees, and myself carry a pistol everywhere we go on the ranch,” he said during the hearing at Eagle Pass.

  “We have been cussed at, threatened, had rocks and sticks thrown at us. Our dogs have been beaten on multiple occasions by illegals. In the past, we have not had these issues.”

  Roswell recently moved his family off the ranch due to safety fears.

  As with many ranchers in this area of south Texas, Roswell’s main income is recreational hunting. Exotic or native game is a prized catch for some hunters and they’ll pay tens of thousands of dollars to get a shot at a home-grown trophy.

  That means ranchers rely on their high game fences to keep stock on their ranch and particularly off any highways, where they’d be liable if an animal escaped and caused injury.

  Roswell said his fence by the main highway has been “completely ruined” from being cut and driven through countless times.

  “Every hunting camp I have has been vandalized. Our headquarters have been broken into. Over half of our highway gates have been run through. We’ve had three electric gates destroyed. Most of my hunting blinds have been vandalized, windows and doors broken, one set on fire, several used as bathrooms,” Roswell said. All of the illegal aliens carry knives and travel in groups.

  “For the first time, I’ve received phone calls asking if it’s safe to come hunt. We’ve had countless hunts ruined by illegals. Our hunters have been threatened by illegals. My livelihood is being threatened.

  “It’s not just the damages that we have to deal with, it’s also the abuses of the human trafficking. In the last year, we have found six dead illegals that I’m aware of. I have helped women and men who have been beaten, raped, and abandoned by their groups.

  “This past winter, we found a little girl, she was 8 years old. She had been lost for three days all by herself because her group left her.”

  Roswell urges people to think about the same thing happening to their own property and their own backyards and gardens.

  “And then imagine your kids or your grandkids playing in those yards. Because that’s what we’re living through every single week,” he said.

  “We’ve had our ranch truck stolen. The amount of trash on the property is completely disgusting. We have tons and tons of backpacks and bottles and trash bags. Probably about 200,000 gallons of fresh water has just been wasted and poured out onto the ground.

  “All of these damages in two years time have added up to a little over $200,000. And that’s without us building any new fence. Why should I incur this cost?”

  

  Organics on Hold

  Ruben Garibay bought some land and moved to Maverick County to start an organic farming operation. In 2019 he started clearing and preparing the land for his crops.

  But at the beginning of 2021, when he was ready to get things underway, the border crisis hit and he couldn’t plant anything.

  “We have yet to be able to start it because of all the trampling already in the fields. As some of you may know, in organic farming, any kind of contamination deems the crop completely useless and you’ve got to destroy it within a 10-foot radius of any footprint, animal, anything that comes in,” he said.

  “So although we have high fences—not to keep exotic game in, but to keep any kind of traffic or animals out—they’re still jumping them.”

  Garibay said he tried to place ladders for illegal aliens to climb his fences without ruining them, or to direct them to walk along the equipment pathways, but to no avail.

  He has no choice but to wait and hope things will change.

  “It’s pretty discouraging,” he said.

  ‘Fear Factor’

  Wayne King spends four and a half hours every day checking fences on the exotic game ranch he manages in Kinney County. Prior to January 2021, he said he checked the fences once a week or maybe once every two weeks.

  “Since then I have fixed 252 holes in my fence. I fixed water troughs, I fixed water lines. They come through our place like it’s a highway. I have been woke up at night at 11 p.m., 12 a.m., 1 o’clock in the morning with them banging all over my doors, my windows. I’ve had to use my pistol to run them off,” he said.

  “It’s become a dangerous, dangerous thing to live every night of your life wondering. I sleep with pistols under my pillow, pistols in every room. Pistols on my nightstand. It’s just crazy.”

  King is located 25 miles from the nearest town: “911 doesn’t help me a bit.”

  He said illegal aliens have cut his fences wide enough to drive vehicles through. His gates have been destroyed and left open. He estimates he’s lost in revenue between $150,000 and $200,000 worth of exotic game.

  “It’s just getting to the point where if it was not for … our highway patrol agency, we might as well give up. We’re done,” he said.

  “To live every day of your life in fear. Not accounting the work that’s lost or the work we have to do, it’s the fear factor of being in the pasture.”

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/12/2022 – 23:00

• Xi Poised To Build Support For "Taiwan Reunification" With 4 Top Military Picks
  Xi Poised To Build Support For “Taiwan Reunification” With 4 Top Military Picks

  If you thought the global economic chaos resulting from one hot war was more than enough, well… we have some bad news: a second one is on its way as the specter of a China-Taiwan war grows by the day.

  According to Japan’s Nikkei, Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to stack the country’s senior military leadership during next month’s Communist Party congress with loyalists aligned on his goal of unifying Taiwan and the mainland.

  Xi – who is expected to accept an unprecedented third term at next month’s twice-a-decade Party Congress – serves concurrently as general secretary of the Communist Party and chair of the Central Military Commission, the top decision-making body for the armed forces. Four of the commission’s seven members are due to retire at the twice-a-decade congress in mid-October.

  According to Nikkei, much attention is focused on how Xi, who is all but guaranteed to receive a precedent-breaking third term as China’s top leader at the event, will fill the vacancies on the military commission given his belligerent stance toward the U.S. and Taiwan.

  Miao Hua, one of the commission’s members, is seen as the top candidate to replace Xu Qiliang, one of the two vice chairman. Miao has known Xi for three decades, since the latter served in Fujian Province.

  Xi in 2015 began restructuring China’s ground-forces-centric military into a modern and mobile organization in which all branches fight as one. In an effort to break through the silos among the armed branches, Miao, an army man, had been appointed to a senior post within the navy.

  A contender for promotion onto the commission is Li Qiaoming, former head of the People’s Liberation Army’s Northern Theater Command. Li apparently caught Xi’s eye by writing an article that struck a chord with the leader, who sought to tighten the party’s grip on the armed forces. Though the PLA serves as China’s military, it is part of the Communist Party.

  “The Soviet Union collapsed because the party didn’t have its own army,” Li had argued in the article.

  Longtime Xi protege Liu Zhenli commands the PLA ground forces. Liu’s resume includes a lengthy stint overseeing a unit that safeguarded Beijing, a contingent formed by the best-trained fighters in the army. He ranks among the top 200 Communist Party officials, as does Li. That puts Liu in the running for a vice chairman post on the military commission.

  Among other things, Xi is expected to reiterate his vision for Taiwanese unification during the congress. But since many officials in the military are currently reluctant to achieve that goal through force, promoting Miao, Li and Liu could smooth the way for the president to make such decisions regarding Taiwan.

  Speculation also suggests that Xi will promote Zhang Shengmin, a Central Military Commission member who led anti-corruption dragnets in the PLA, to vice chairman. This would put other senior military officers on notice.

  Military leaders with experience in the region including Taiwan have drawn attention as potential commission members. He Weidong commands the PLA’s Eastern Theater, which oversees operations involving Taiwan and Japan’s Nansei archipelago. He is believed to have taken part in the large-scale military exercise near Taiwan in early August.

  Another likely candidate is Xu Qiling, who once commanded PLA ground forces in the Eastern Theater. Chang Dingqiu, commander of the air force and the youngest active full general, is seen to be in contention as well.

  

  In the last party congress in 2017, Xi reduced the seats on the Central Military Commission to seven from 11. In 2022, many of these seats will now be filled with Xi’s preferred puppets, greenlighting any military overtures the Chinese ruler orders.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/12/2022 – 22:40

• Xi's Meeting With Putin Seen As Major Market Risk
  Xi’s Meeting With Putin Seen As Major Market Risk

  By Ye Xie, Bloomberg markets live reporter and commentator

  President Xi Jinping’s planned visit to Central Asia this week will mark his first trip aboard since the pandemic hit more than two years ago. In normal times, it wouldn’t register strongly on a trader’s radar.

  But these aren’t normal times, and it comes at a rather delicate moment for China, domestically and internationally. Some analysts are fearful that Xi’s trip, which reportedly includes a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, may pose a major risk for the Chinese market.

  Xi’s trip to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan was announced just as Beijing doubled down on its Covid restriction before the Party Congress next month. The policy is weighing on the economy and the rhythms of daily life, with the state media reporting that the number of China’s passenger trips expected during the holiday may fall 38% from a year earlier. Is it just a coincidence — or is the party leader’s traveling schedule a signal that normalcy is returning to China, albeit slowly?

  

  More importantly, the trip comes barely a month ahead of the twice-a-decade Party Congress, where Xi is expected to accept an unprecedented third term. Analysts at Clocktower Group, an alternative asset management platform, noted that it’s “extremely rare” for the party leader to travel abroad ahead of the Party Congress. President Xi, for example, stopped making overseas trips three months ahead of the 19th Party Congress in 2017. “President Xi was not expected to leave the country unless it was extremely urgent for him to do so,” the analysts wrote.

  What’s the urgency? Uzbekistan is hosting the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, which will give Xi a chance to meet Putin in person for the first time since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February. It comes at a time when Russia is suffering major setbacks as Ukraine mounts counter attacks to take back lost territory. Clocktower’s analysts wrote:

  If the Western high-tech sanctions are pushing Russian industries and military to the brink of collapse, China may be the only white knight that is capable of providing a rescue. As such, an “SOS” from the Kremlin is likely the reason behind the reported Xi-Putin meeting in the coming week.

  The meeting will pose a significant risk for Chinese markets. If China decides to help Russia beyond merely buying its commodities, there is considerable risk that the US and Europe will implement secondary sanctions on China. There may also be pressure on Chinese assets from a general investor aversion – likely strengthened by a social media “cancel” campaign against Beijing – to hold them once Beijing recalibrates policy to more concretely support Moscow.

  It might be too speculative to guess what might come out it. But keep in mind that at the onset of Russia’s invasion, foreign investors dumped Chinese stocks and bonds because they were worried that China may be embroiled in the second-round sanctions because of Beijing’s ties with Moscow.

  

  So don’t be surprised if what would look like a lackluster trip by Xi winds up moving the market.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/12/2022 – 22:40

• New Zealand Scraps Nearly All COVID-19 Restrictions, Including Mask And Vaccination Mandates
  New Zealand Scraps Nearly All COVID-19 Restrictions, Including Mask And Vaccination Mandates

  Authored by Rebecca Zhu via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  New Zealand will be retiring its COVID-19 traffic light system and significantly scaling down COVID restrictions from Sept. 13 so Kiwis could “move forward with certainty,” Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced.

  “It’s time to safely turn the page on our COVID-19 management and live without the extraordinary measures we have previously used,” Ardern said, calling it a “milestone.”

  

  With the abolition of the traffic light COVID protection framework, mask mandates will be lifted in all areas except in healthcare and aged care settings.

  Household contacts will no longer need to isolate, while people tested positive to COVID-19 will continue to be required to isolate for seven days.

  All government vaccine mandates will end on Sept. 26, and all vaccination requirements for incoming travellers and aircrew will also be removed.

  After restrictions are lifted, it will be up to the employer’s discretion whether they will require workers to wear masks or get vaccinated for COVID-19.

  “In short, we now move on to a simple two requirements system of masks in healthcare settings and seven days isolation for positive cases only,” Ardern said.

  The COVID-19 protection framework, or traffic light system, set out the rules for different traffic light settings, where red was the highest alert setting, and green meant no restrictions. At the time of removal, New Zealand was at orange.

  The government also confirmed that COVID leave payments will continue.

  COVID-19 Minister Ayesha Verrall also announced the purchase of an additional 40,000 anti-viral medicine courses, expected to arrive in New Zealand within days.

  “So now, anyone over the age of 65, and Maori and Pacific people over the age of 50, or anyone who meets Pharmac requirements, can access the treatment in the early stages of contracting the virus.

  “This means more than double the number of New Zealanders will be able to access these medicines if they need them than previously,” Verrall said.

  Decision Welcomed Across the Board

  Retail NZ welcomed the move to return New Zealand to a “sense of normality.”

  “After over two years of being at the forefront of COVID-19 rules, alert level changes, low foot traffic, and nonsensical mask rules, retailers across New Zealand will be pleased with today’s revised approach,” Retail NZ Chief Executive Greg Harford said.

  “The revision today largely brings New Zealand in line with most of the rest of the world.”

  But Harford encouraged the government to further revise the isolation period down to between three to five days.

  ACT party agreed with the idea, with ACT Leader David Seymour noting that New Zealand had among the strictest isolation rules in the world.

  “Keeping people locked in their houses longer than is necessary imposes real costs to them and the economy without improving our COVID-19 response,” he said.

  “New Zealand is holding on to a long COVID hangover. It turns out an ‘abundance of caution’ is an abundance of cost for New Zealanders.”

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/12/2022 – 22:20

• Don't Blink, You'll Miss The Merge
  Don’t Blink, You’ll Miss The Merge

  As One River Asset Management’s Sebastian Bea writes, the Ethereum Merge set for this Wednesday, is like upgrading a rocket ship after its launch: “It is an epic engineering feat.” However, for those expecting the fully-priced in event to lead to even more price upside, you will likely be disappointed – as Bea writes, “the value of the Merge to Ethereum will be in attracting a deeper network over time. That will take patience – the Merge is not an immediate catalyst.”

  To explain the real significance of the Merge, below are the latest thoughts and market notes, from One River’s head of research Marcel Kasumovich, who writes the following note, which we have republished below:

  “5.8×10^22 – Don’t Blink, You’ll Miss the Merge.”

  1/ Escape velocity. A simple, tidy equation quantifying what is needed to escape gravity. It’s far less tidy in the behavioral sciences that govern digital ecosystems. “Functional” escape velocity is a moving target, achieved when everything else can be done on top of a base layer without changing it materially. Becoming the dominant base layer is the target in the digital space-race. The Merge gets Ethereum closer to that target, hence the excitement around it.

  2/ The Ethereum protocol aims to dominate the digital space-race with the long-awaited Merge of the Mainnet and the Beacon chains (Figure 1). There are excellent resources explaining the Merge from technical to philosophical. Can the Merge fail? What if there is a hard fork? How long will smart contracts be locked? These are all questions extremely well covered. The Merge was planned so its flaws would be visible over a lengthy trial phase – 20 “shadow forks” on private testing networks were deployed along the way. Our focus is on investment dynamics.

  Figure 1: Approaching the Merge (via image here)

  

  3/ Ethereum has already met the objectives of a successful layer 1, validating transactions without reliance on a third-party network. The migration to proof-of-stake is more of a philosophical shift than a required engineering one. In the past two years, the protocol has averaged 1.2 million blockchain transactions a day, securely and without downtime. The Merge doesn’t change Ethereum’s objectives, only the means. Transactions will now be validated by way of algorithmic selection of validators rather than computing competition. This is a material shift in narrative, steering clear of politically charged issues around energy consumption.

  4/ The question we are most asked is whether the Merge is in the price. Of course, it is. Even the most casual observer is familiar with the Merge and the spike in option open interest shows speculators are alert (Figure 2). It is an engineering upgrade, not a corporate merger evaluated on cash flows. The benefits of the Merge are only relevant with greater adoption and a deeper network. The Merge is an engineering feat that is sending out invitations, not directly initiating new participation in Ethereum.

  Figure 2: Ether Options Open Interest, USD Billions (view image here)

  

  5/ So how should we think about the Merge and its value to ether? It is all about attracting users to the Ethereum base layer. It will be most successful when changes to the base layer are rare. How the Ethereum Network is valued will also undergo a material change. To use Ethereum you need to hold ether; holding and staking ether turns it into a bond-like asset. Ethereum’s growing network will treat ether as the reserve asset to the ecosystem and staking that asset to support the validation of transactions will give it bond-like features of a reserve asset.

  6/ The network effect is in motion. The goal of any layer 1 is to be so foundational that anyone can build upon it with little reason to change it, like a Constitution. That building is happening, even in the crypto winter. Take Polygon, the most widely used Ethereum scaling solution (1.1% of our Core Index and 5.3% of Size Tilt). There are currently more than 37,000 applications running on the Polygon Network, an explosion from 200 in June 2021. These are leading to “real” products. Polygon is integrating Web 3.0 functionality into existing smartphones with the Nothing Phone (1) being the first. The coming wave of layer 2s will widen the set of opportunities.

  7/ The growing network will lead investors to see ether for its bond-like characteristics. There are two components of the ether-bond. The first is the coupon paid for staking ether. Payments are made to validators for their staking services, which takes little more than powering on your computer, connecting to internet, and running the latest software. The odds of being called upon to validate a transaction are inversely proportional to the number of validators. More validators means that a larger number of investors share in the rewards, lowering the coupon and vice versa (Figure 3).

  Figure 3: Ethereum Perpetual Bond Coupon (view image here)

  

  8/ The second bond-like component is fees. You can think of this like a GDP warrant in traditional finance where the coupon is positively linked to activity in the economy. Fees on the Ethereum protocol – including tips paid to prioritize single or bundled transactions – will be earned by validators after the Merge. Stronger activity in the Ethereum economy leads to higher fees and more economics for staking. During last year’s boom, gross fees were more than 15% annualized share of the Ethereum market capitalization (Figure 4). With this year’s downturn, fees have collapsed by 96% and a ratio of less than 1% annualized.

  Figure 4: Fees Pro-Cyclical Yield Akin to GDP Warrant (view image here)

  

  9/ The two sources of yield work in opposite directions over the cycle – a very attractive feature for investors. In a boom scenario, a rise in staking demand leads to lower ether coupons, and more income is earned from fees. In a bust scenario, a decline in staking demand raises the ether coupons, and fee income declines. We anticipate this centering the yield around 6-8% over the next year – not bad for an invisible reserve asset in the future of finance. Ether’s role in the financial ecosystem will compete with bond assets that are held for their surety of collateral – a valuation that is many multiples its current state.

  10/ It’s the final countdown to the total terminal difficulty rate of 58750000000000000000000, expected around September 15. It’ll be boring if all goes according to plan, nothing like the excitement of watching the force of a rocket launch. Alas, the dream of every successful layer 1 is precisely that – to be a boring, secure platform that is eventually taken for granted, invisible to the users who demand more from their tools. The Merge is one step closer to that reality.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/12/2022 – 22:00

• Previewing The "Pivotal" August CPI Report: Expect A Miss… A 7-Handle Likely Sees A Very Strong Rally
  Previewing The “Pivotal” August CPI Report: Expect A Miss… A 7-Handle Likely Sees A Very Strong Rally

  Ahead of tomorrow’s CPI print, Wall Street is split between those who say tomorrow’s inflation data is fully priced in and won’t have an impact on either stocks or the Fed which won’t ease until the breadth of price increases comes closer to the Fed’s 2% goal, and those who – echoing recent comments from the Fed – believe that the CPI is all that matters for the Fed’s upcoming rate decision, even though odds of a 75bps rate hike in two weeks time are just over 90%.

  Among the former is Goldman trader Matt Fleury who quotes Bullard’s comments from last week, namely that a good CPI report shouldn’t affect the Sept Fed call, and notes that “he is exactly right… We are priced for 75bps already. CPI doesn’t matter. People who don’t have enough length will tell you it does, but it doesn’t. Its priced. The asymmetry is higher here” and is why this traditionally bearish Goldman trader predicted that “we might be starting the Q4 chase early.”

  But while there may be disagreement over how the market or Fed will react to the CPI, there appears to be agreement that the August inflation print will miss to the downside (by a little or a lot), if mostly at the headline level thanks to plunging commodity prices (core inflation may actually shit higher as Americans shift spending on items such as food and gas into “core” inflation). There is also agreement that whatever the BLS deems the proper CPI number, “it is unlikely that it will reflect what we see and feel every day” as Peter Tchir put it, adding that it also “doesn’t tell us anything about where September will be (actually, that is not true, as some of the data will be so off, that it will have to get fixed in next month’s report, and some is just stale by its nature (housing).”

  Some more hard truths from Tchir on CPI’s 15 minutes of fame:

  The reality is that CPI, away from quirks in how it is calculated (the all-important housing component might be the quirkiest off the quirky, but heuristic adjustments, how prices are measured, etc.) all impact the number that we will be given, but don’t really impact the inflation we have. And again, it doesn’t tell us much about the future of inflation.

  As we sent out on Friday, the market has concluded that both the ECB and even the Fed, despite their protestations otherwise, are both being viewed as data dependent.

  Most importantly, the Academy strategist “cannot see any scenario, where the market doesn’t decide that CPI is heading the right direction and that October will be lower than September and so on and so forth (so many commodity futures contracts that I checked out are all lower forward than spot).”

  Indeed, one look at not just today’s unexpectedly low NY Fed consumer survey inflation expectations for both the 1 and 3Y horizon…

  

  …. but also 3Y breakevens which have dropped to a nearly two year low….

  

  … as well as two-year inflation swaps…

  

  … now suggesting CPI will average less than 3% in the near term (excluding energy the market expects prices may still grow near 4%.)

  There is another reason why it is clear that the market is now convinced that peak inflation is behind us and tomorrow’s CPI print will likely miss: stocks and bonds have gained in tandem as economists expect the first negative monthly reading in more than two years, even though as noted above but core inflation is still expected to post an increase in August while the y/y index of underlying prices is set to tick up back above 6% from 5.9% previously. Core inflation is then expected to stay around that level through early 2023 as rents will keep the core rate high (remember what we wrote in August 2021, when conventional wisdom was still that inflation would be transitory: “What Rental Hyperinflation Looks Like: “Soaring Prices. Competition. Desperation“”).

  Another measure to watch, according to Bloomberg’s Tatiana Darie is the share of the CPI basket that is rising more than 4% on an annualized basis: July saw a drop to 71.8% from June’s high of 74.8% as three-quarters of prices are rising faster than their 5-year average. The direction and speed of these gauges will also tell us a lot about the inflation outlook.

  After that long preamble, here’s what Wall Street expects tomorrow for the August CPI:

  • CPI M/M Exp. -0.1%, last flat
  • Core CPI M/M Exp. +0.3%, last +0.3%
  • CPI Y/Y Exp. +8.1%, last +8.5%
  • Core CPI Y/Y Exp. +6.1%, last +5.9%

  there are 39 estimates on Bloomberg (compared to 72 estimates for this month’s NFP data). The range is incredibly narrow (7.9% to 8.3% for YOY).

  

  Here are some of the more indicative examples:

  • BMO 8.3%
  • HSBC 8.2%
  • BofA 8.2%
  • ING 8.2%
  • JPMorgan 8.1%
  • Soc Gen 8.1%
  • Citi 8%
  • Goldman 8%
  • TD 8%
  • BNP 8%
  • Jefferies 8%
  • Standard Chartered 8%
  • Stifel 8%
  • Nomura 8%
  • Wells Fargo 7.9%
  • Credit Suisse 7.9%
  • Morgan Stanley 7.9%

  Some details from the bigger banks, starting with Goldman (full note available to pro subs, along with a bunch of other pre-CPI reports):

  “We estimate a 0.32% increase in August core CPI (mom sa), which would boost the year-on-year rate by two tenths to 6.1%. Our forecast reflects a further drop in airfares on the back of lower oil prices (we assume -5% mom sa) as well as net softness in autos categories (new +0.75%, used -1.25%, parts flat) due to easing supply chain constraints and the arrival of 2023 model years on dealer lots. However, we expect continued strength in services inflation due to wage pressures, labor shortages, and elevated short-term inflation expectations. Specifically, we look for a strong set of shelter readings (rent +0.65% and OER 0.55%) and a 0.6% rise in education prices due to higher tuition and daycare costs for the new school year. We also expect another gain in car insurance, as carriers push through price increases to offset higher repair and replacement costs. We estimate a 0.13% monthly decline in headline CPI, reflecting lower gasoline prices but higher food prices.”

  

  “Food inflation increased to 7.6% yoy (Exhibit 2) in August (from 6.7% yoy in July), contributing almost 40bp to the overall increase in headline inflation. Further, sequentially food prices increased by 0.5% mom s.a. (vs. -0.5% mom s.a. in July) mainly driven by higher cereal prices”

  

  Away from GS research, here a good take from Goldman flow trader John Flood and market reactions (full note also available to pro subs):

  All eyes on CPI tomorrow @ 8:30am. Interesting dynamic in sense Fed essentially preannounced 75bps @ 9/21 meeting when THIS Nick Timiraos (fed’s mouthpiece) article dropped last week. Market clearly wants/expects a cooler headline print w/ recent sharp decline in gas prices. Street is braced for core print to remain stickier (and even tick slightly higher). Headline number most likely shows some disinflation and wont impact mkt meaningfully after tape’s recent run higher (unless shockingly cool…call it sub 7%…then keep your rally caps on). If we get a surprise hotter reading of >8.5% (prior) mkt likely gets hit by at 100+bps.

  Here’s JPMorgan forecasting that “in-line print that indicates a second consecutive MoM decline would be supportive for equities” while “a 7-handle CPI YoY (exp. is 8.1% so certainly not unthinkable) we would likely to see a strong rally tomorrow:

  Andrew Tyler: We have seen new shorts added with some sub-sectors back to YTD highs in terms of  short interest. If this market continues to move higher does a squeeze take us back to 4300 level into earnings season? If so, it will start with CPI on Tuesday (Headline YoY +8.1% exp.; +8.5% prior. Headline MoM -0.1% exp.; 0.0% prior) where an inline print supports a move higher. Should Headline CPI YoY print with a 7-handle, then think we see a very strong day for stocks. Given light positioning and low liquidity, we could see another sharp rally coming out of CPI.

  Mike Feroli:, “We estimate that the consumer price index (CPI) was basically unchanged in August. With this soft headline print, we think the year-ago inflation rate will moderate from 8.5% in July to 8.1% in August. We expect the monthly changes in the main details of the report to be pretty similar between July and August, with a drop in energy prices being offset by gains in food and core prices. We forecast that the energy CPI fell 5.6% in August while the food CPI rose 0.9% and the core index increased 0.33%. If our forecast is correct, the year-ago rate for the core CPI should pick up from 5.9% in July to 6.1%.”

  

  Ultimately, while a miss tomorrow will likely unleash market animal spirits, in the grand scheme of things it will not really change the big picture: even assuming sequential inflation growth slows to a trickle, the chart below from BofA shows how long it will take for inflation to normalize on an annual basis.

  

  Bottom line: an line print will be supportive; a big miss – especially if it is a 7-handle Y/Y stocks will fly, while a big beat will – predictably – hammer stocks. As for the Fed, barring a major surprise, tomorrow’s report isn’t expected to alter the Fed’s outlook until the breadth of price increases slows further and comes closer to the Fed’s 2% goal. And the St. Louis Fed’s James Bullard told us that 75 bps this month is still on the table despite a “good” CPI report.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/12/2022 – 21:40

• Israeli Prime Minister Announces In Berlin: Iran Nuclear Talks "Dead"
  Israeli Prime Minister Announces In Berlin: Iran Nuclear Talks “Dead”

  In yet more confirmation that the long-running attempt to reach a restored JCPOA Iran nuclear deal has failed, a senior Israeli official representing Prime Minister Yair Lapid on Monday declared that Iran talks are “dead”. 

  This comes as the Israeli government has been touting its “successful” lobbying of the US administration to not go through with a ‘bad deal’: 

  A senior Israeli official called on Europe and the US on Monday to begin talking about demands for a “longer, stronger” nuclear agreement with Iran, saying current talks aimed at reviving a 2015 pact were dead after Jerusalem provided proof that Tehran had not been forthright during negotiations.

  

  Lapid and his top aides were in Berlin Monday, where the Israeli Prime Minister says he passed German Chancellor Olaf Scholz “sensitive and relevant intelligence information” on Iran’s nuclear program

  The day prior, Germany, France, and the UK issued a joint statement calling out Iran’s sincerity and motives in seeking a restored nuclear agreement, citing “serious doubts” the Western signatories to the original JCPOA have. 

  A senior Israeli official traveling with Lapid told reporters: “We gave information to the Europeans that proved that the Iranians are lying while talks are still happening.” 

  “There’s not going to be a JCPOA, say the Americans and most Europeans. They say, ‘We have a lot of reservations about the possibility of a nuclear agreement,'” the official added, as quoted in The Times of Israel. “There are no talks right now with Iran. There is no one in Vienna.”

  Despite only weeks ago some officials were hailing that the Vienna process had reached the “finish line” – and that a final text was under scrutiny after the EU delivered it to Washington and Tehran, there’s been increasing acknowledgement that it’s permanently stalled, if not collapsed altogether.

  Israel has all along charged that the Islamic Republic simply wanted to use a restored deal as cover to continue to secretly pursue nuclear weapons – something Tehran has consistently denied. Lapid meanwhile, has claimed he has “up-to-date intelligence information on Iranian activity at the nuclear sites” which contradicts what Iranian officials say in public.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/12/2022 – 21:20

• Taiwan Anticipated Many Of The Lessons From The War In Ukraine
  Taiwan Anticipated Many Of The Lessons From The War In Ukraine

  Authored by Julian Spencer-Churchill & Liu Zongzo via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Recent Taiwanese military exercises indicate that Taipei has anticipated many of the most important lessons of the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, and has also been addressing issues more specific to its precarious security situation. U.S. Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. Mark Milley advised the ROC to assimilate promptly the insights from the Ukraine War. These lessons include the importance of strategic political intelligence to avert a surprise attack, surveillance by Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAV), and their principal counter-measures including electronic warfare and local air defense; the persisting importance of combined arms warfare, the use of precision artillery, and the exploitation of built-up terrain with light troops equipped with anti-tank systems; logistics; and the economic, social and political preparation for a long war.

  

  In recent months, Taiwan has become concerned about the threat value of the people’s Republic of China’s (PRC) People’s Liberation Army Air Force’s (PLAAF)’s top to bottom modernization that has given Beijing the ability to conduct limited anti-access and air denial (A2/AD) operations in the South China Sea, and with the potential to create a regional blockade around the island. Recent exercises around Taiwan show that the PLA is forging ahead with an emphasis on network-centric warfare and information operations to coordinate the PLA units of its different elements, in particular between its naval platforms and aircraft.

  Taiwan’s current defense framework, introduced by former Republic of China (ROC) Deputy Minister of National Defense, Admiral Lee Hsi-ming between 2016 to 2020, emphasizes force preservation, coastal victory, and beach landing denial. This entails a rapid movement and concentration of land units while under interdiction, and surviving air and sea units, to contain and then counter-attack against a specific beach landing. This is in contradistinction from a more stable and proven practice of relying on a defense-in-depth to wear down an attack as it builds-up and pushes inland. However, Taiwan is counting on a joint land-sea-air attack to deliver a shock to Chinese amphibious, airborne and heliborne forces, before they are able to consolidate. Taiwan validates its operational doctrines through its annual Han Kuang Exercises.

  During the 2018’s Han Kuang 34, commercial drones were used for the first time by Taiwan, in addition to public SMS notifications on aerial threat warnings. In 2019, the emphasis was placed on the use of highway strips as emergency runways as a counter to China’s concentrated targeting of Taiwanese airbases with land-based missiles. That year, Taiwan also explored concepts of asymmetric warfare, combined arms combat aimed at coastal denial, and civilian cooperation in communications, civil defense, and evacuation drills.

  In 2020, while retaining the core strategy of force preservation, in order to resist Chinese tactics intended to inflict attrition and pin down Taiwanese land forces, Han Kuang 36 examined the use of joint air defense battalions to protect high-value infrastructure. Taiwan has a missile defense density higher than that of South Korea or Japan, and second to only Israel, although the survivability of these systems are difficult to ascertain. The exercise also notably incorporated Taiwan’s cross-strait long-range precision strike capabilities, using the Hsiung Feng II and the supersonic Hsiung Feng III, anti-ship missiles, in joint operations between the navy and air force.

  The first post-pandemic exercise, Han Kuang 38, was held on July 25, 2022, with the location of the exercises chosen to simulate multiple a response scenario against a principal and diversionary amphibious landing, with a joint focus on adapting to C2 (command and control) disruption inflicted by Chinese jamming and strikes. The settings ranged from the northeastern area – Taipei’s Songshan Airport, Hsinchu, to the northern cities Taichung and Chiayi, to the southern area around Tainan, Pingtung, and the eastern coastal cities Hualien, and Taitung. These included a focus on artillery units’ readiness by training with live D-485 HE rounds to simulate landing beach denial against PLA’s amphibious operations.

  The 2022 Han Kuang 38 exercise responded to a need to prepare given the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) increased use of realistic combat-oriented exercises, modernization, heightened recruitment, and improved restructuration. Counter A2/AD air defense simulations were conducted around Taipei to maintain its defense capabilities against a first-wave missile strikes from the Chinese mainland and People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) ships and submarines. Live fire, marines amphibious maneuvers, urban warfare preparations, special forces and airborne coordination, were also conducted to simulate a near-real invasion scenario. Taiwan has taken preparation for real war seriously, as evinced by its emphasis on cross-element (land, sea, air) training, inter-unit synergy and coordination, which is in effect combined arms warfare on the strategic level.

  Besides seeking to improve the readiness of its military defense posture through the step-level intensification of the Han Kuang exercises, Taiwan is also intending to send a strategic deterrent message to Xi Jinping’s cell of policy decision-makers. This is especially important given that Taiwan’s investment in its defense may not be enough to deter a decision by Chinese Communist Party Secretary General Xi Jinping to invade: China may not wait until it has a significant force advantage, and may make its move instead based on domestic political issues.

  There remain major three major areas of military investments where expected payoffs for Taiwan lend urgency to the effort. First, the ROC needs international ship-building assistance to accelerate its sub-surface deterrence and its indigenous defense submarine (IDS) program. The ROC’s current sub-surface combatants are limited to 2 Hai Lung class and 2 Hai Shih Guppy II class submarines. An unlocated Taiwanese sub-surface force would compel the PLAN’s vulnerable Amphibious LPDs to deploy father offshore, discharging their landing units father from their landing beaches.

  Second, Taiwan’s investment in Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAV) lags behind that of other similarly threatened middle-sized democracies under threat, like South Korea. One of the clear highlights of the War in Ukraine is the role of Electronic Counter Measure –resistant artillery reconnaissance and strike drones. Third, in order to survive the initial missile strikes and A2/AD capabilities, the ROC needs more underground megastructures for force preservation to prevent C3 denial. Taiwan already has an extensive civil defense shelter system, and now it needs a network along the Taiwanese littoral for ground force survivability.

  ---

  Dr. Julian Spencer-Churchill is an associate professor of international relations at Concordia University (Montreal) along with Liu Zongzo.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/12/2022 – 21:00

• Failing Forward? Fired CNN Host Brian Stelter Gets Harvard Fellowship
  Failing Forward? Fired CNN Host Brian Stelter Gets Harvard Fellowship

  Disgraced ex-CNN personality Brian Stelter has landed a new gig since he was fired by the struggling network as part of their effort to regain credibility.

  

  This fall, the former “Reliable Sources” host – who breathlessly peddled Russiagate and other far-left conspiracy theories for half-a-decade – will be joining the Harvard Kennedy School’s Shorenstein Center on Media, Politics and Public Safety.

  “Personal news: I’m joining the @ShorensteinCtr at Harvard Kennedy School,” Stelter tweeted. “This fall I’ll be the Walter Shorenstein Media and Democracy Fellow, convening discussions, some of which will be live-streamed. Grateful to @nancygibbs and her team for the home!”

  Personal news: I’m joining the @ShorensteinCtr at Harvard Kennedy School. This fall I’ll be the Walter Shorenstein Media and Democracy Fellow, convening discussions, some of which will be live-streamed. Grateful to @nancygibbs and her team for the home! https://t.co/cOD0SyeuwE

  — Brian Stelter (@brianstelter) September 12, 2022

  Harvard confirmed the move, reporting that Stelter “will convene a series of discussions about threats to democracy and the range of potential responses from the news media.”

  Stelter was hired by CNN in 2013 from the New York Times, where he was essentially their Taylor Lorenz. In addition to hosting “Reliable Sources,” Stelter produced a daily email newsletter about the media for CNN.

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/12/2022 – 20:40

• Alarm Bells Sound As World's Second Largest Appliance Company Reports Demand Plunge
  Alarm Bells Sound As World’s Second Largest Appliance Company Reports Demand Plunge

  Swedish appliance maker Electrolux AB announced a cost reduction program after reporting a plunge in demand for its home appliances across Europe and the US. 

  The world’s second-largest home appliances manufacturer after Whirlpool said, “market demand for core appliances in Europe and the US so far in the third quarter is estimated to have decreased at a significantly accelerated pace compared with the second quarter, driven by the impact of high inflation on consumer durables purchases and low consumer confidence.” 

  It noted: “High retailer inventory levels have amplified the impact of the slowdown in consumer demand.” 

  Remember, there’s a massive inventory glut of consumer goods at retailers.  

  

  Electrolux warned a combination of snarled supply chains had pressured the company, which is expected to report an even more significant operating loss in the third quarter. 

  “In combination with supply chain imbalances resulting in significant production inefficiencies and increased costs, the third quarter earnings for the Group are expected to decline significantly compared to the second quarter 2022 also excluding the one-time cost to exit the Russia market. This has been driven mainly by Europe and North America. Business Area North America is expected to report an operating loss in the third quarter exceeding the loss in the second quarter.” 

  Waning consumer demand, retailer inventory building, and mounting losses for the Swedish company forced its board to “initiate a Group-wide cost reduction program addressing both variable and structural costs.” Electrolux explained more about the cost reductions:  

  “The program, which starts immediately, will focus on reducing variable costs, with special attention to eliminating cost inefficiencies in our supply chain and production. The structural cost reductions will primarily take place in Europe and North America and include prioritization and efficiency measures leveraging recent organizational changes which took effect July 1. The measures include increasing productivity in operations as well as optimizing the R&D portfolio, administration, sales and marketing activities.”

  The souring outlook for Electrolux initially sent shares down 7% but have since recovered most losses late in the European session. 

  

  Electrolux’s CEO Jonas Samuelson said consumer confidence is expected to stay depressed in Europe, adding, “I think people will hold on to their wallets quite hard.” The same is likely true in the US — consumers have backed off buying durables goods and focused on purchasing staple products as the highest inflation in decades has sent wage growth deeply negative for more than a year. Households on both sides of the Atlantic are struggling. 

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/12/2022 – 20:28

• Shipping's 'China Syndrome': Demand Sinks Across Multiple Cargo Markets
  Shipping’s ‘China Syndrome’: Demand Sinks Across Multiple Cargo Markets

  By Greg Miller, of FreightWaves

  In the mid-2000s, when shipping stocks first became popular on Wall Street, the shares were commonly bought as a play on China’s economy. China is pivotal to ocean shipping, whether it’s container ships, oil tankers, bulkers or gas carriers.

  “There’s a saying that everything that moves out of China in containers has to come into China as raw materials,” noted Oeyvind Lindeman, chief commercial officer of Navigator Gas, on his company’s latest conference call. Ominously, signs of China’s weakening economy are showing up across all shipping sectors at once.

  The glass-half-empty view is that pullbacks in shipping demand are bellwethers of more severe economic problems to come. The glass-half-full view is that declines are temporary. A rebound of Chinese demand for iron ore, oil and gas will eventually boost commodity shipping rates.

  Container shipping

  Sales of containerized goods to the U.S. and Europe supported the Chinese economy throughout the pandemic era. Markets were rattled Wednesday when China’s official monthly export stats came in much lighter than expected.

  China’s exports rose 7.1% year on year (y/y) in August, well below the consensus forecast for 12.8% growth. Exports had grown 18% y/y in July. China’s exports to the U.S. declined 3.8% y/y in August, compared to an 11% increase in July.

  Outbound volumes are being squeezed from both sides. Demand for Chinese goods is falling at the same time COVID-19 lockdowns and weather issues are constraining Chinese manufacturing and logistics.

  

  The government has extended lockdowns in Chengdu and announced new nationwide precautions through the end of October. Analysts do not foresee any relaxation of China’s zero-COVID policy this year.  

  Meanwhile, China recorded its highest temperatures and lowest rainfall in over six decades last month. Resultant power outages forced factory closures in Sichuan.

  Dry bulk imports

  China is the world’s largest producer of steel. Its steel production in January-July was down 6.1% y/y. Production in July fell 10% versus June.

  “The decline in Chinese steel production has predominantly come from the ailing property sector and the stop-start industrial activity due to COVID-19 lockdowns,” wrote Mark Nugent, dry bulk analyst at shipbroker Braemar, in a research note on Thursday.

  Brokerage EastGate Shipping said that the heatwave and power shortages forced 20 steel mills to go offline for around a week in mid-August.

  Steel production drives Chinese demand for iron ore imports, largely from Australia and Brazil. These are the most important cargoes for Capesizes, larger bulkers with capacity of around 180,000 deadweight tons. Average Capesize spot rates collapsed from $38,200 in late May to just $5,600 per day on Friday, according to data from Clarksons Securities.

  Brokerage BRS blamed the plunge on diversions of Australian iron ore from China to Southeast Asia, and more damaging to rates, a sharp decline in Chinese imports of long-haul Brazilian iron ore in August.

  “Scorching temperatures and a relentless zero-COVID policy seriously crippled steel demand in China,” said BRS. It does not expect a full recovery of Chinese steel production until next spring, “casting doubts on a radical rebound in seaborne iron ore demand.”

  Oil imports

  China is by far the world’s largest importer of oil. Chinese imports are the most important driver for spot rates of larger 2-million-barrel-capacity tankers known as very large crude carriers.

  According to Poten & Partners, Chinese crude imports grew rapidly from 4.1 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2009 to 10.1 million b/d in 2019. Growth slowed in 2020 when the pandemic hit and declined by 550,000 b/d in 2021.

  Chinese imports sank to 8.7 million b/d in June, the lowest monthly average since July 2018. Imports were 8.8 million b/d in July and 9.5 million b/d in August. In the first eight months of this year, Chinese crude imports fell 5.2% versus the same period in 2021.

  The International Energy Agency said in its latest outlook that China’s lockdowns “set back our projected demand recovery by two months.”

  BRS noted that China has 920,000 b/d in new refinery capacity scheduled to come online by the end of the year. Normally, that would increase crude import demand. However, China’s refining capacity is already higher than domestic consumption and the government has not been pushing exports.

  “Considering our relatively pessimistic short-term outlook for China, [with] COVID and lockdowns to remain a going concern until at least the beginning of next year, we expect little upside in Chinese runs as Beijing appears unwilling to permit its refiners to focus on export markets,” said BRS.

  LPG shipping

  China also is one of the world’s largest importers of liquefied petroleum gas (LNG): propane and butane. 

  Beyond its use for energy, China imports propane as feedstock for propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plants for the creation of propylene. The propylene is used to produce polypropylene, which is in turn used to manufacture plastic.

  Tim Hansen, chief commercial officer of Dorian LPG (NYSE: LPG), referred to Chinese demand headwinds during his company’s latest call. Hansen cited “renewed impact of COVID-19 lockdowns” and worries about Chinese demand that “were a factor for market players, which resulted in more risk-averse [behavior] and reduced opportunistic trades.”

  According to Lindeman of Navigator Gas, “All eyes are on China and when they are getting out of their malaise.”

  LNG shipping

  In the liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector, Europe is now buying a much higher share of U.S. exports than usual due to fallout from the Ukraine-Russia war.

  Oystein Kalleklev, CEO of Flex LNG (NYSE: FLNG), said on his company’s latest call: “In a sense, you could say that Europe has been very lucky, because the cooldown in the Chinese economy driven by COVID lockdowns has resulted in lower demand from China.

  “Chinese imports this year are down by more than 20% [or] 9 million tons. And European buyers have been able to get access to these cargoes, which would have been a lot more difficult if the Chinese economy was running at normal capacity.”

  Kalleklev believes China will come back to the LNG import market, in a big way, pointing to commitments for new volumes that have yet to come onstream.

  “Even though China has a reduction in LNG imports this year, they are signing for almost half of these new volumes, because the LNG story in China is in its early phases,” Kalleklev said. “This year, actually, Japan will probably import more LNG than China. And there are more than 10 times as many people in China. So, China will continue to grow once they get control of COVID and reflate their economy.”

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/12/2022 – 20:20

• Biden Immigration Boss Apologizes After CBP 'Retweets' Ex-Trump Adviser Stephen Miller
  Biden Immigration Boss Apologizes After CBP ‘Retweets’ Ex-Trump Adviser Stephen Miller

  While Vice President Kamala Harris has assured us that the southern US border is ‘secure’ (despite illegal immigration on track for a record-breaking 2 million arrests this fiscal year), some Customs and Border Protection social media kid is probably out of a job for ‘liking’ a tweet by former Trump senior adviser Stephen Miller which was critical of the Biden administration’s immigration policies.

  

  “Violent criminals lay waste to our communities undisturbed while the immense power of the state is arrayed against those whose only crime is dissent,” Miller tweeted. “The law has been turned from a shield to protect the innocent into a sword to conquer them.”

  In a separate tweet, Miller said that “The media’s greatest power is its ability to frame what is a dire national crisis (eg “cops are racist” summer ’20) and what is not. Biden’s eradication of our border means we are no longer a Republic-he’s ended nearly 250 years of constitutional government. The media is silent.”

  Both of which CBP West Texas retweeted.

  

  Where’s the lie?

  Liberals promptly melted down – resulting in CBP Commissioner Chris Magnus apologizing for the retweets.

  

  “This must not happen again,” he tweeted Saturday.

  Totally unacceptable and disappointing that any CBP Twitter account was used to R/T offensive, unauthorized content. We’ve removed the content and will deactivate the account. The Office of Professional Responsibility will investigate. This must not happen again. pic.twitter.com/O0Vwr3K7nI

  — CBP Commissioner Chris Magnus (@CBPChrisMagnus) September 11, 2022

  We hope whoever tweeted that lands on their feet.

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/12/2022 – 20:00

• GOP Leader Says Homes Of Trump Supporters May Soon Be Raided By FBI
  GOP Leader Says Homes Of Trump Supporters May Soon Be Raided By FBI

  Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  A top former Republican leader and prominent attorney has said that the homes of more supporters of former President Donald Trump may soon be raided by FBI agents—weeks after the unprecedented Aug. 8 raid of Mar-a-Lago.

  

  Harmeet Dhillon, who was the vice chairwoman of the California Republican Party, told Fox News that within 24 hours of a Politico reporter’s Twitter post claiming that the FBI is ready to serve warrants, “three of our clients … did either get search warrants or subpoenas. And these subpoenas are extremely broad.”

  In a Twitter post, Dhillon alleged that someone within the Department of Justice’s (DOJ) Jan. 6 team “told a Politico reporter that 50 or so search warrants and grand jury subpoenas were being issued to Trump allies—before it happened. Clients, already being harassed by House J6 Committee investigators.”

  “Our clients [Women for America First] are among those targeted for their peaceful, First-Amendment-protected, speech about 2020 election,” she wrote. “These bullying tactics are designed to target [and] intimidate Trump supporters.”

  🧵1/2 DOJ’s “Capitol Seige Section” has been busy these last few days: someone told a Politico reporter that 50 or so search warrants and grand jury subpoenas were being issued to Trump allies—before it happened. Clients, already being harassed by House J6 Committee investigators pic.twitter.com/dRybORWkUR

  — Harmeet K. Dhillon (@pnjaban) September 10, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  She did not elaborate on the other individuals who may be targeted by the FBI, including whether they were Trump administration staffers or associates of the former president. Last week, former Trump adviser Steve Bannon was arrested and charged by New York state officials for allegedly partaking in a scheme connected to a private border wall construction effort.

  Dhillon added that the subpoenas “ask for broad categories of documents” and ask “for all communications dating from a month before the election until a month, two months after the election.”

  The Epoch Times has contacted the Department of Justice (DOJ) and FBI for comment.

  The subpoenas “ask for all communications regarding dozens of people and the categories are alternate electors, fundraising around irregularities around the election,” Dhillon told host Tucker Carlson, “and also a rally that happened before the Jan. 6 situation at the Capitol.”

  

  Dhillon then speculated that based on the Politico reporter’s Twitter post, the FBI is leaking information to reporters before they’re executed. For years, Trump and members of his team have accused the agency of passing on confidential information or even disinformation to mainstream outlets in a bid to denigrate his presidency and reelection chances.

  “There’s no other explanation for this,” the lawyer said. “And I think the reason for this is to instill fear into Donald Trump’s supporters and into those who would challenge election irregularities right before an upcoming election.”

  She did note, however, that it is “illegal for the DOJ to leak this information to the media.”

  Special Master

  In the battle over whether to appoint a special master in handling documents that were taken from Trump’s Florida residence last month by FBI agents, a Florida federal judge, Aileen Cannon, last week sided with the former president and argued that leaks to the media would cause him harm. She ordered the appointment of a special master, while the DOJ appealed the decision to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit, which features six Trump-appointed judges.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/12/2022 – 19:40

• San Francisco Is On The Verge Of An Economic Reckoning
  San Francisco Is On The Verge Of An Economic Reckoning

  Known for decades as a bug hive of progressive ideology and ground zero for many socialist movements within the US, San Francisco is no stranger to instability.  However, the political schizophrenia of the region was long tempered by extensive business interests and California’s profit potential.  Entrepreneurs helped to balance out the cultism and CA was lucky enough to see unprecedented economic fortune.  Many leftist politicians to this day try to take credit for the prosperity of the state, but the days of wine and roses are long gone.  

  While LA lost its shining gloss in the early 1970s when crime rates began to skyrocket, San Francisco was able to hold on to its affluent image for much longer and was once considered one of the greatest cities in the US.  The silicon valley revolution extended the otherwise dwindling life span of the area as major tech companies set up shop well into the 2000s, but the past decade in particular has not been so kind to the Bay Area.  

  This may be because the traditional dynamic has changed.  The free market mentality of the business contingent used to keep the insanity of the Frisco leftist ideologues in check, but now, the corporate world has joined the cult and is engaging in activism right along side all the crazies.  There is no longer any balance – California and specifically San Francisco went “full retard.”  

  The city is now famous for its depravity and decline.  With multiple “poop tracking” apps to help residents avoid stepping in human fecal matter piled on the sidewalks as well as entire neighborhoods and street corners overrun with homeless people and Fentanyl addicts, it’s very hard for the city to play itself off as a destination of dreams (though they still try).  Much like LA and the city of Portland, wherever the political left takes full control these are the kinds of unfortunate scenes you are likely to witness on a regular basis in San Francisco:

  Recent estimates project at least 20,000 homeless will reside in the city in 2022, and poverty levels will remain around 11.3% of the population.  Previous homeless estimates date back to 2019, and surveys were skipped in 2020 due to the covid lockdowns.  The Bay Area’s crime rates are FAR above the national average according to FBI stats, with property crime more than double that of the rest of the US.    

  The social implosion along with the draconian CA covid mandates caused hundreds of thousands of people to flee the state.  Progressives moved out of the major cities as well, but only about one hour away on average.  The top destinations for people leaving San Francisco were Sacramento, Stockton and San Diego according to U-Haul statistics.  The rumors of conservative states like Texas being overtaken by CA leftists are greatly exaggerated, but the stats do show that CA residents are indeed moving away from the big cities in large numbers and expanding into 2nd tier cities and smaller towns close by.    

  San Francisco saw a 6.8% population decline from 2020 to 2021.  Sales tax revenues dropped by 50% from 2019 to 2020 and city officials do not expect a recovery until 2025. 

  The effects of the exodus along with political mismanagement by Democrats is leading to a complete implosion of California’s major cities.  The mainstream media and the state’s PR spin teams are fond of citing their global financial standings, but what they have been hiding is the steady decline in major population centers and the fact that places like San Francisco are built on foundations of economic sand.  

  The most visible signals of collapse are in the real estate market for now.  Residential home sales have cratered by around 30% and prices are beginning to drop.  Though, a loss in home sales is happening across the country and median home prices in California spiked by at least 36% in the past two years.  It’s unlikely that they will fall back to previous lows anytime soon, even with the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. 

  The real damage is in commercial real estate.  Mass office vacancies in San Francisco have not been repaired and the city’s downtown recovery has ranked dead-last out of 60 US metropolitan areas.  Commercial property value losses are now estimated to average around 40%.  In some cases, bids for office space in downtown San Francisco are coming in at 60%-70% less than they would have in 2019.   

  The region’s core financial support comes from the wealth activity in the city’s center, and now it’s crumbling because no businesses want to operate there (nor can many of them afford to operate there due to taxation).  The amazing thing is, they did it to themselves.  

  Impractical and destructive green tech and carbon laws, totalitarian covid lockdowns and mandates, extremely high taxes and endless bureaucratic red tape have all incrementally sabotaged the cities of the Golden State.  And, the worst of it began the moment business interests decided to stop caring about profits and growth and instead felt the need to virtue signal their political loyalties and push leftist propaganda.  This emboldened far-left factions within the cities and gave them a free pass to implement whatever insane policies they wanted.  Thus, the golden goose has been destroyed.

  CA politicians and leftists will continue to deny reality, but the state is on life support and it’s fading fast.  San Francisco is a prime example of the obvious fall.  By this time next year they won’t even try to hide it, they’ll only be looking for a scapegoat to blame.    

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/12/2022 – 19:20

• "It's Very Big Size" – FOMO Sparks Big Bullish, Levered Bets Ahead Of CPI
  “It’s Very Big Size” – FOMO Sparks Big Bullish, Levered Bets Ahead Of CPI

  As we noted earlier, stocks squeezed higher for the 4th straight day, but VIX (unusually) rose today along with the equity indices (extending the decoupling we started to see on Friday)…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  These are the tell-tale footprints of large levered-long bets being placed as options traders chase the market higher.

  And, as Bloomberg reports, a number of large, bullish bets were flagged following last week’s reports from Goldman’s trading desk that they’d seen the largest notional long-buying in a year ahead of tomorrow’s CPI print.

  There were “several examples of investors turning to upside calls for exposure to (or protection against) further momentum, both outright and versus downside put sales,” Christopher Jacobson, a strategist at Susquehanna Financial Group, wrote in a note.

  “They could certainly be driven by investors who are underweight looking to these upside calls for limited-risk exposure.”

  Susquehanna pointed out one trader that paid 53 cents each for 30,000 calls betting the iShares Russell 2000 ETF would rise to $199 by month-end. Another involved paying about $2.65 for roughly 15,000 calls linked to the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (ticker XBI) with a strike price at $100 expiring in November.

  Danny Kirsch, head of options at Piper Sandler, noticed a rather large derivatives trade coinciding with the initial rally.

  One trader paid $90 each for 9,000 S&P 500 calls (at a cost of around $80 million) wagering that the S&P 500 would rally to 4,300 by December.

  Putting this altogether, we see the Put-Call ratio collapse today…

  

  “It’s very big size,” said Kirsch. “Maybe someone is under-invested or just bullish looking to play for year-end rally.”

  We do note that the morning started off with S&P Delta having shifted into positive territory ahead of today’s squeeze and the event risk of tomorrow…

  

  But as we noted, CTA flo-flops from short-to-long are the ammo needed for the next leg to squeeze higher from significant negative delta lows.

  Just bear in mind one thing…

  

  The S&P 500 has lost 0.5% on average on a CPI day YTD.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/12/2022 – 18:40