• The Nuclear ESG Push Is On: UK Aims To Put Reactors "At The Heart" Of Its Decarbonization Strategy
  The Nuclear ESG Push Is On: UK Aims To Put Reactors “At The Heart” Of Its Decarbonization Strategy

  The United Kingdom could be ready to officially put nuclear power back on the map.

  That’s because UK ministers are planning on putting nuclear power “at the heart of Britain’s strategy to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050,” a new report from the Financial Times reveals. 

  In what is one of the boldest statements about the future of nuclear in a major geographic area, government documents will lay out a “net zero” strategy for the UK as well as a cost assessment of implementing the strategy to meet the 2050 goal. 

  Then, Prime Minister Boris Johnson is expected to give the documents a “go ahead”. 

  The FT reported on how the project would be funded:

   The creation of a “regulated asset base” (RAB) model will be key to delivering a future fleet of large atomic power stations. The RAB funding model is already used for other infrastructure projects, such as London’s Thames Tideway super sewer.

  Under the scheme, households will be charged for the cost of the plant via an energy levy long before it begins generating electricity, which could take a decade or more from when the final investment decision is taken.

  The mechanism is designed to encourage investment by institutional investors, such as pension funds, by guaranteeing steady returns from early on. Legislation on the nuclear RAB model will be published later this month.

  Westinghouse is already taking well to the news, planning to revive plans for a nuclear power plant that was abandoned by Hitachi in 2019, the report says.

  

  Ministers will also be advocating for small modular reactors, which we noted days ago were also key to France’s plans to meet net zero carbon emissions goals.

  A combination of “nuclear power, renewables and ‘carbon capture and storage'” is being targeted for UK’s 2035 net zero goal. 

  The government will also produce costs analyses and broader environmental plans ahead of the upcoming COP26 climate conference in Glasgow at the end of October. 

  Four days ago we noted that France was also adopting nuclear as part of President Macron’s strategy for decarbonization. 

  Recall, Germany is also trying to stop the decommissioning of its nuclear reactors. A newly penned letter to the FT, signed by professors from Oxford, Harvard and American University alongside a group of environmentalists, is urging that Germany postpone its exit from nuclear energy for benefit of the environment.

  Noting that many Germans aren’t happy with the job politicians are doing addressing climate change, the letter notes that Germany’s “emissions are rising sharply again, at a time when they need to be falling fast”.

  Recall, just days prior to that we wrote about Poland’s second largest energy consumer considering a move to small modular reactors to help generate energy. 

  Earlier in the summer we posted about how crypto miners were starting to forge partnerships with nuclear power plants to combat the “bitcoin is not good for the environment” argument. 

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/19/2021 – 02:45

• Washington Or Moscow: Decision-Time For Erdogan In Northern Syria
  Washington Or Moscow: Decision-Time For Erdogan In Northern Syria

  Authored by Tulin Daloglu via TheCradle.co,

  Erdogan’s Syria choices seem increasingly limited by unflagging US support for his Kurdish foes. Turkey’s only option may be a Russian one…

  

  In his 7 October statement renewing US national emergency powers in Syria, US President Joe Biden said: “The situation in and in relation to Syria, and in particular the actions by the Government of Turkey to conduct a military offensive into northeast Syria, undermines the campaign to defeat the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or ISIS, endangers civilians, and further threatens to undermine the peace, security, and stability in the region, and continues to pose an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States.”

  The full statement obviously has several intended audiences, but then quite remarkably, veers to cast Turkey, a NATO ally, almost as an existential threat to the United States. Ankara understands that the exaggerated accusation may be a tactic to keep Turkey from carrying out military operations east of Euphrates River, currently controlled by US-backed Kurdish People’s Protection Unit (YPG) militias.

  But whether Turkey aims to make this move is beside the point. What this harsh White House language seems to be communicating is a US red line whereby the Kurdish-controlled area in northeastern Syria is regarded as a federal district – as in Washington, DC or Puerto Rico. That is the crux of all that matters.

  For years, US policymakers regarded Turkish misgivings over this issue as either paranoiac or conspiratorial. When Turkey and Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) signed a multi-billion-dollar energy package in 2013 by bypassing the central government in Baghdad, it was Washington that warned Ankara that such acts could only empower the Kurds’ drive for independence. To note, these contracts eventually did not yield any favorable results.

  Fast forward to 2017, when Washington tamped down the Iraqi Kurdish independence referendum quickly and decisively. The move made Ankara temporarily cool its concerns over the US’ stance on Kurdish nationhood, but found itself on alert again when the Pentagon began working closely with the YPG militia in Syria.

  Turkey argues that the YPG is an extension of a group the US State Department classifies as a terrorist organization: the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). The US maintains that its support of the YPG does not indicate hostility toward Turkey, its territorial integrity or national harmony; it merely needs non-US bodies on the ground to fight ISIS and, frankly, Syrian allied forces attempting to recover their resource-rich swathe of territory.

  For years now, the American media has glorified the bravery of Kurdish fighters to generate sympathy, and cast Turkey as a racist state prepared to commit cross-border genocide against Kurdish populations. This simplistic approach in shaping people’s perception is one aspect of Washington’s policy agenda. The other part frames the US-YPG relationship as being merely transactional – the YPG maximizes its political and military power and the US scores gains against ISIS and the Syrian government.

  The question is whether US-backed Kurdish forces are even an antidote to ISIS. Former US Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford doesn’t think so. “The YPG militia cannot destroy ISIS,” he said in a recent webinar event. “An autonomous (Kurdish) administration is not going to resolve the ISIS problem.”

  So then, why does Biden’s administration believe that Turkey undermines US counter-terrorism efforts enough to pose a national security threat? If one examines Washington’s own post-9/11 foreign policy track record in Turkey’s neighborhood, there’s virtually nothing resembling “peace, security, and stability in the region.”

  Is Turkey single-handedly responsible for these American failures? No. Could the Kurdish militia pose a threat to Turkey’s national unity and peace? Yes. Does the YPG have a right under international law to defend itself? Let’s get honest here – these NATO allies no longer trust each other enough to look away. And frankly, neither Turkey, nor the US, nor the YPG have the right to invoke international law in their fights against each other inside Syrian territory.

  The US-Turkey relationship has never been an easy one due to Ankara’s poor record of human rights and rule of law, and its 1974 Cyprus intervention. These differences have grown in recent years, and include Turkey’s expulsion from the F-35 program, its exposure to CAATSA sanctions, bitter fights over its acquisition of Russian S-400 anti-missile systems, and so forth. But no issue today is of more concern to the Turks than the Kurdish one, and Washington doesn’t want to hear it.

  When then-Vice President Biden visited Ankara on August 24, 2016, Turkey launched its Operation Euphrates Shield in northeastern Syria. Whether Biden received prior notice remains a mystery; it was the first high-level US visit to Turkey after the failed 15 July putsch by the Turkish-banned Fethullah Gulen movement (Gulen enjoys asylum in the United States), and perhaps Ankara was feeling vindictive.

  “We couldn’t understand if it was an internet game, if it was serious, when it happened,” Biden has said. The again, he also assured Turkey that the US would extradite Gulen if the evidence warranted a trial, and that it would cut support to the YPG if they did not withdraw to the east of the Euphrates river.

  Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will meet with Biden on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in Rome later this month, but the way Washington is ignoring him after years of support is making him restless. The inner ranks of the Ankara beltway are still reeling from the speed at which Turkey went from downing a Russian fighter jet for its 8-second incursion into Turkish air space, to purchasing S-400s from Russia the next day.

  Given Ankara’s chaotic past decade, nothing is taken at face value anymore. But the US is also no longer perceived as a respectful partner in building democracy and human rights. Today, it is regarded more as a cold-blooded, interest-driven power broker, with little loyalty. While Russia, China and Iran are also viewed as sanguine players, they at least appear to respect their alliances.

  Neither of these rising regional powers can single-handedly shape the world order in the way the Americans have done for decades. But, together, they are jockeying to exert influence and maximize their benefits in the wake of Washington’s error-filled, foreign policy decline in influence. The more the US sidelines the interests of its NATO ally in favor of Kurdish militias, the more tectonic opportunities arise for Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran’s benefit.

  Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin met privately for almost three hours in Sochi on 29 September. It is in Putin’s interest to exploit or magnify US-Turkish differences to wrench Turkey away from its Western alliance, where anti-Erdoganism creates unprecedented opportunities for Russia. For years, Washington supported Erdogan in power; now Moscow is playing the same game.

  The YPG recently killed two Turkish special operations police officers in northern Syria. Since then both Erdogan and Turkey’s Minister of Defense Hulusi Akar have spoken cautiously about their next step. On Friday, the Turkish president promised a “different” kind of anti-terror response in Syria, and took a swipe at the Americans: “The terrorists of the PKK, YPG and PYD are running wild in entire Syria, not only in the northern part. The leading supporters of them are the international coalition and the US,” he said.

  It is unclear what Erdogan intends to do next. It could be a limited operation targeting only the Tel Rifaat area – which is under the supervision of the Russians, who have promised to clear out YPG militia. But Moscow will want something in exchange – likely, the complete removal of Turkish-backed militants in Idlib.

  However, if Erdogan and Putin reached a comprehensive agreement in their latest bilateral meeting, Turkey could also aim for the area (30 kilometers deep, from Manbij to al-Malikiyah) of Operation Peace Spring, which Biden would fiercely oppose. Or it could do nothing at all. For Ankara, these are not easy times to make hard decisions.

  One direction will leave Erdogan stuck with uneasy allies who militarily support his most belligerent foes. The other direction will see him abandoning all hope of territorial gains in the Levant, highlight his decade-long failed investment in Syrian regime-change, and place him firmly back within Turkey’s borders.

  President Biden has either misread the tea leaves in the region or actively wants Moscow to exert even more influence over Ankara. Either way, Erdogan may find himself outmatched in the duel between Moscow and Washington. The end game could be a new West Asian order.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/19/2021 – 02:00

• Who Will Be 'Brave' In Huxley's New World?
  Who Will Be ‘Brave’ In Huxley’s New World?

  Authored by Cynthia Chung via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

  No wonder that the Tavistock Institute and the CIA became involved in looking at the effects of LSD and how to influence and control the mind.

  

   “ ‘Science?’….’Yes,’ Mustapha Mond was saying, ‘that’s another item in the cost of stability. It isn’t only art that’s incompatible with happiness; it’s also science. Science is dangerous; we have to keep it most carefully chained and muzzled…I’m interested in truth, I like science. But truth’s a menace, science is a public danger. As dangerous as it’s been beneficent. It has given us the stablest equilibrium in history…But we can’t allow science to undo its own good work. That’s why we so carefully limit the scope of its researchers…We don’t allow it to deal with any but the most immediate problems of the moment. All other enquiries are most sedulously discouraged…Our Ford himself did a great deal to shift the emphasis from truth and beauty to comfort and happiness…[but] People still went on talking about truth and beauty as though they were the sovereign goods. Right up to the time of the Nine Years’ War. That made them change their tune all right. What’s the point of truth or beauty or knowledge when the anthrax bombs are popping all around you? That was when science first began to be controlled – after the Nine Years’ War. People were ready to have even their appetites controlled then. Anything for a quiet life. We’ve gone on controlling ever since. It hasn’t been very good for truth, of course. But it’s been very good for happiness. One can’t have something for nothing. Happiness has got to be paid for. You’re paying for it, Mr. Watson – paying because you happen to be too much interested in beauty. I was too much interested in truth; I paid too.’ “

  Aldous Huxley’s Brave New World

  Where does one start in discussing the famed fiction novel of Huxley? Although most agree that there is a definite brilliance to the piece, most are also confused as to what was Huxley’s intention in writing the extremely influential dystopic vision. Was it meant to be taken as an exhortation? An inevitable prophecy? Or rather…was it meant as an Open Conspiracy?

  What do I mean by an Open Conspiracy?

  If we are going to talk about such things our story starts with H.G. Wells, whom Aldous acknowledged he was most certainly influenced by, particularly by Wells’ novels “A Modern Utopia,” “The Sleeper Awakes,” and “Men Like Gods,” when writing his “Brave New World.”

  Although Aldous is quoted as referring to Wells as a “horrid, vulgar little man,” (Wells was indeed not a very likeable individual) it was not for reasons one might first assume. Aldous did share a Wellsian perspective in that society should be organised based on a caste system. Perhaps this was one of the reasons Aldous was so fascinated with learning about India’s Hindu religious beliefs and practices, which had coexisted for centuries with a deeply ingrained caste system to which India is still struggling to remove itself from to this day. This is not to say that one caused the other, or that Hinduism has not offered a plethora of great works and insights, but that it had become corrupted and thoroughly intertwined with upholding India’s caste system at some point one cannot deny; that it was used to justify a system of hierarchy from slave to the god-like state of a Brahmin and that British imperialists had always been greatly fascinated by this form of social organization one cannot deny.

  Aldous was always interested in the subject of religion, but more so for its uses in behaviourism and mental conditioning achieved through such techniques as entering states of trance where an individual’s suggestibility could be manipulated. Hypnopædia was not just some quirky sci-fi concoction. It is also why Aldous was so interested in the work of Dr. William Sargant, whom Aldous repeatedly refers to in his writings and lectures and who was involved with the Tavistock Institute and MKUltra. More on this in Part two.

  These spiritual/religious studies are what shaped the core thesis of Aldous’ book “Doors of Perception” which is considered the instruction manual for what started the counterculture movement. The title is influenced by the poet William Blake who wrote in 1790 in his book “The Marriage of Heaven and Hell,”:

  “if the doors of perception were cleansed then everything would appear to man as it is, Infinite. For man has closed himself up, till he sees all things through narrow chinks of his cavern“

  Another major influence for “Doors of Perception” was again H.G. Wells, from his book “The Door in the Wall,” which examines the contrast between aesthetics and science and the difficulty in choosing between them. The protagonist Lionel Wallace is unable to bridge the gap between his imagination and his rational, scientific side which leads to his death.

  Aldous writes in his “Doors of Perception,”:

  “That humanity at large will ever be able to dispense with Artificial Paradises seems very unlikely…Art and religion, carnivals and saturnalia [ancient Roman pagan festival], dancing and listening to oratory – all these have served, in H.G. Wells’s phrase, as Doors in the Wall…Under a more realistic, a less exclusively verbal system of education than ours, every Angel (in Blake’s sense of that word) would be permitted as a sabbatical treat, would be urged and even, if necessary, compelled to take an occasional trip through some chemical Door in the Wall into the world of transcendental experience. If it terrified him, it would be unfortunate but probably salutary. If it brought him a brief but timeless illumination, so much the better. In either case the Angel might lose a little of the confident insolence sprouting from systematic reasoning and the consciousness of having read all the books…But the man who comes back through the Door in the Wall will never be quite the same as the man who went out…”

  Aldous was always chasing the perfect drug that would be minimal in its physically destructive effects but would allow an individual to tap into an almost consumer state of a religious/spiritual out-of-body experience, a transcendence that promised a connection with the Infinite, inner peace and enlightenment.

  Enlightenment and inner peace in a pill, ready for whenever one needed a short holiday from the “illusion” of reality.

  The name Soma, which Aldous used to name his fantasy ideal drug in “Brave New World,” was based off a plant whose juices were used to create the spiritual drink which was described in both the ancient religious practices of the Vedic tradition and Zoroastrianism, which called the plant and spiritual drink by the same name, Soma. Today, it is a mystery as to what plant they were referring to in these texts. Huxley no doubt chased after this dragon the entire latter half of his life, and indeed, psilocybin mushrooms are theorised as one of the potential candidates for what could have been named Soma centuries ago.

  It is perhaps here that people are the most confused about the character of Huxley. After all, he was obviously walking the walk so to speak, thus didn’t he truly believe that psychedelics were the path to freedom through enlightenment?

  Well, the argument has been made that Huxley’s approach to LSD [and other psychedelics] was essentially oligarchic, that it was to be regarded as a dangerous substance to be sampled only by such fine and visionary minds as his own. That is, those who had the mental strength, the mental stamina to reach enlightenment; those who were too weak to sustain such mental rigours would become the very opposite, and risked falling into the dark pit of complete madness, although this in of itself was perceived by many to be a form of clairvoyance. After all, what is it to be mad in a world that is sickeningly and inhumanely “normal”? This is most certainly how Ken Kesey thought when writing his “One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest,” that madness itself was a form of liberation from the shackles of capitalist societal constraints.

  Perhaps madness was the goal, it was after all, much more attainable that the promised enlightenment…

  As William Sargant noted in his book “Battle for the Mind: A Physiology of Conversion and Brain-Washing” J.F.C. Hecker was studying the dancing mania phenomenon that occurred during the Black Death, which was a social phenomenon that arose in Europe between the 14th and 17th centuries. It involved groups of people who would begin to dance erratically during the Plague, sometimes thousands at a time until they would fall from exhaustion or from injuries. It was thought to have arisen in Aachen, Germany in 1374 and quickly spread throughout Europe with one of the last observations of it occurring in 1518 in Alsace, France.

  Hecker observed in his research on the dancing mania that heightened suggestibility had the capability to cause a person to “embrace with equal force, reason and folly, good and evil, diminish the praise of virtue as well as the criminality of vice.”

  Such a state of mind was likened to the first efforts of the infant mind, Sargant writes “this instinct of imitation when it exists in its highest degree, is also united a loss of all power over the will, which occurs as soon as the impression on the senses has become firmly established, producing a condition like that of small animals when they are fascinated by the look of a serpent.”

  I wonder if Sargant imagined himself the serpent…

  It is no wonder that the Tavistock Institute and the CIA became involved in looking at the effects of LSD and how to influence and control the mind. And perhaps it is no coincidence that Aldous Huxley was in close correspondence with William Sargant to which Sargant even refers to Aldous’ “insights” multiple times in his book “Battle for the Mind.”

  Aldous is also quoted in a lecture he delivered to the Tavistock Group, California Medical School in 1961:

  “There will be, in the next generation or so, a pharmacological method of making people love their servitude, and producing dictatorship without tears, so to speak, producing a kind of painless concentration camp for entire societies, so that people will in fact have their liberties taken away from them, but will rather enjoy it, because they will be distracted from any desire to rebel by propaganda or brainwashing, or brainwashing enhanced by pharmacological methods. And this seems to be the final revolution.”

  Aldous goes on to state a year later in a lecture titled “The Ultimate Revolution” at UC Berkeley Language Center 1962:

  “Today we are faced, I think, with the approach of what may be called the ultimate revolution, the final revolution, where man can act directly on the mind-body of his fellows…we are in process of developing a whole series of techniques which will enable the controlling oligarchy who have always existed and presumably will always exist to get people to love their servitude. This is the, it seems to me, the ultimate in malevolent revolutions shall we say, and this is a problem which has interested me many years and about which I wrote thirty years ago, a fable, Brave New World, which is an account of society making use of all the devices available and some of the devices which I imagined to be possible making use of them in order to, first of all, to standardize the population, to iron out inconvenient human differences, to create, to say, mass produced models of human beings arranged in some sort of scientific caste system.”

  Yes, yes we get it. This is all to be taken as “warnings” to the public, a terrible necessity that will come about if over-population is not addressed (as he makes clear in his Brave New World Revisited). With over-population comes over-organization which in turn leads to the scientific advances in technology which we are told by Aldous can only lead to totalitarianism. Thus, population growth and advances in the sciences are the greatest threat to humankind. Wait, that sounds oddly very much like the reasonings of Mustapha Mond, have we come around full circle, what exactly does Aldous agree and disagree with here? Are we to have a scientific dictatorship in order to avoid a totalitarian system in the form of a scientific dictatorship?

  In H.G. Wells’ “Open Conspiracy: Blueprints for a World Revolution,” he describes his vision for a Modern Religion:

  ‘…if religion is to develop unifying and directive power in the present confusion of human affairs it must adapt itself to this forward-looking, individuality-analyzing turn of mind; it must divest itself of its sacred histories…The desire for service, for subordination, for permanent effect, for an escape from the distressful pettiness and mortality of the individual life, is the undying element in every religious system.

  The time has come to strip religion right down to that [service and subordination is all Wells wants to keep of the old relic of religion]…The explanation of why things are is an unnecessary effort…The essential fact…is the desire for religion and not how it came about…The first sentence in the modern creed must be, not “I believe,” but “I give myself.” ‘

  Hmm, is this the same Revolution as Aldous is speaking about? After all, there is a lot of similarity between H.G. Wells’ description of his “Modern Religion” and what Aldous is preaching in his “Doors of Perception,” to which Wells is undoubtedly a large influence. The desire to escape from the distressful pettiness and mortality of the individual life, that the explanation for why one does something is not important, only to be motivated by the desire for release, for a complete catharsis that only the fervour of a “religious,” a “spiritual” experience can bring about.

  It is the desire for, not the care for why. To believe is not even acceptable, because to believe pertains to thought, it is merely a matter of surrender, that you give yourself. It is not to act with reason but to be possessed by its very opposite; to be in a state of existence where there are no words, and thus there are no thoughts, just direct sensory feeling.

  The ultimate achievement is to completely surrender oneself to the external world, perhaps to a dictatorship without tears…

  The reader should be aware that Wells wrote a book titled “The New World Order” in 1940, and is the first that I am aware of to pioneer this now-infamous term. The reader should also be aware that Julian Huxley (Aldous Huxley’s brother) was a co-author of “The Science of Life,” a part of Wells’ trilogy “The Outline of History” (1919), “The Science of Life” (1929), and “The Work, Wealth, and Happiness of Mankind” (1932) to which Wells made no qualms should be regarded as the new Bible. Julian was also a prominent member of the British Eugenics Society, serving as its Vice-President from 1937-1944 and its President from 1959-1962. Interesting life choices from the authors of the “new Bible.”

  In addition, Aldous’ grandfather Thomas Huxley (“Charles Darwin’s bulldog”) was the biology teacher of H.G. Wells and was one of the largest influences in Wells’ life, promoting the works of Charles Darwin and Thomas Malthus, for more on this refer to my paper. Although Thomas Huxley lived before the time of the “science” of Eugenics, he was a stout Malthusian and thus one can rather safely say would have been a eugenicist if offered the chance.

  Thus, we should regard Aldous’ mention of the stylish ‘Malthusian belt’ in his “Brave New World,” under a more somber light perhaps…

  And now we are ready to walk through the doors of perception on Aldous himself, the true Huxley behind the projected illusion. We may not find Infinity at the end of this excursion, but we will most certainly be better equipped to tell the difference between Huxley’s self and non-self, between what is real and what is false.

  [This is Part 1 to a three-part series, Part 2 and 3 will cover the War on Science, the Battle for your Mind and Aldous Huxley as a pioneer for the counter-culture movement and its implications.]

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/19/2021 – 00:00

• Lloyd Austin To Stress "Open Door To NATO" In Visit To Ukraine & Georgia
  Lloyd Austin To Stress “Open Door To NATO” In Visit To Ukraine & Georgia

  Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is traveling to eastern Europe this week, where he will reportedly tell countries on the “the front lines of Russian aggression” – in particular Ukraine and Georgia – that there is an “open door to NATO”, according to a senior defense official quoted in The Washington Times.

  His trip will take him to both countries, after which he’ll go to Romania and on to Belgium to participate in a meeting of NATO defense ministers. “We are reassuring and reinforcing the sovereignty of countries that are on the front lines of Russian aggression,” the unnamed senior US official said further.

  

  Both Ukraine and Georgia have have seen recent border conflicts and tensions flair up with their large, more powerful neighbor – including the Russo-Georgia War of 2008 centered on the status of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

  “Against that backdrop, defense officials said Mr. Austin will tell Ukrainian and Georgian leaders that there is an open door to NATO membership and that each country should take steps to qualify for membership,” the Washington Times continues. 

  As for Ukraine, which earlier this year saw President Volodymyr Zelensky provocatively declare that “NATO membership is the only way to end war in Donbass”, Austin is expected to underscore “unwavering support” – according to a DOD announcement of the official trip:

  In Ukraine, the Secretary will meet with President Volodymyr Zelensky and Minister of Defense Andrii Taran to reaffirm our unwavering support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The visit will also serve as an opportunity to discuss Ukraine’s progress with the implementation of defense and defense industry reforms needed to advance its Euro-Atlantic aspirations as well as regional cooperation among Black Sea allies and partners.

  Meanwhile, just before Austin’s arrival in the region, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov took the opportunity to restate Russia’s “red line” in an interview with a French TV channel, saying “Ukraine’s accession to NATO would be the worst-case scenario” for which Moscow would respond with necessary “active measures”.

  

  “This is a scenario that goes beyond the red lines of Russia’s national interests. This is a scenario that could force Russia to take active measures to ensure its own security,” Peskov said. And addressing accusations earlier in the year of Russia threatening Ukraine’s sovereignty via a major troop build-up, he pointed out that “before the Russian troops were moved to that region, there were large NATO exercises held near the Russian border. Everyone talks about the concentration of Russian troops all the time, but nobody talks about the concentration of NATO troops.”

  Austin’s trip comes on the heels of a rare visit to Russia of Undersecretary of State Victoria Nuland, where a US delegation said productive talks were had with the Russian side toward restoring deteriorated communications with Washington.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/18/2021 – 23:40

• After Backlash Over $600 IRS Bank Surveillance, Democrats Revise Proposal
  After Backlash Over $600 IRS Bank Surveillance, Democrats Revise Proposal

  Senate Democrats on Tuesday plan to release a reworked version of a Biden administration proposal to surveil US bank accounts – after their original plan to require financial institutions to report transactions on bank accounts with more than $600 in annual deposits and withdrawals was widely panned (i.e. most people). 

  

  Now, the rule will apply to anyone with at least $10,000 in annual non-wage deposits or withdrawals, according to the Washington Post, which writes that the toned-down scope ‘intends to insure it applies to only larger account holders.’

  We wonder, though, if this includes older Americans deriving at least $10,000 in annual dividends / interest outside of a traditional IRA (which is considered ordinary income when taken)? Or parents sending at least $10,000 per year to college-aged children? Or anyone paying cash for a car, or motorcycle, or literally anything that costs more than $10,000? Or those who have spent at least $10,000 in a year – which brings us back to ‘most people.’

  “I don’t know why they thought $600 would be a good number. $10,000 is definitely an improvement,” said former Obama and Trump IRS commissioner, John Koskinen, who thinks the threshold should be closer to $50,000. “The vast majority of people won’t be affected, but it will pick up more than just the idle rich.”

  That said, some Democratic aides are skeptical whether even the altered version of the proposal will make it into the final Build Back Better package.

  Democrats supportive of the proposal have pointed out that well-funded business lobbyists and Republican lawmakers have mounted an all-out campaign against the measure that has sometimes exaggerated or outright fabricated the extent of the changes. But opposition to the measure is not limited to Wall Street, and has extended to community banks influential with much of the congressional Democratic caucus. -WaPo

  Over 20 GOP attorneys general have opposed the original proposal in a Friday letter to President Biden and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, saying that it “stands in direct opposition to privacy that Americans are entitled to and deserve.” We can’t imagine they’ll change their stance in light of the changes.

  At present, the rule change is nebulous. Perhaps Tuesday’s proposal will shed more light on exactly who Democrats are targeting with financial surveillance.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/18/2021 – 23:20

• Chinese & Russian Warships Jointly Sail Through Chokepoint Off Japan's Mainland For 1st Time
  Chinese & Russian Warships Jointly Sail Through Chokepoint Off Japan’s Mainland For 1st Time

  In an unprecedented maneuver amid joint naval drills that just wrapped up in the region, a large group of Chinese PLA and Russian warships sailed through a key chokepoint very close to Japan’s mainland for the first time ever on Monday.

  Ten naval vessels belonging to China and Russia passed through the northern Tsugaru Strait, Tokyo’s Defense Ministry said soon after the pass through. It comes after the two militaries just wrapped up four days of joint naval exercises, dubbed ‘Maritime Interaction 2021’, in the Sea of Japan from Oct.14 through 17.

  

  It also comes after in recent months Japan has made it clear that it sides with Washington’s controversial Taiwan pro-independence stance, inviting the wrath and muscle-flexing of Beijing.

  Nikkei Asia reported that “The warships sailed eastward toward the Pacific Ocean, likely as part of Naval Interaction 2021, a joint maritime exercise the two navies are conducting this month.”

  The maritime monitoring site Naval News described the weekend Russia-China drills as follows:

  12 planes and helicopters of the Pacific Fleet’s air arm and the Chinese Navy were also involved in the maneuvers.

  During the joint maneuvers, the crews of the warships from both countries practiced joint tactical maneuvering, mine countermeasures, artillery live-firing against seaborne targets. They also searched for and blocked a simulated enemy’s submarine in the assigned area.

  Russia’s military released footage showing the large-scale joint drills…

  On Friday Russia’s Ministry of Defense had blasted the behavior of a US destroyer in the Sea of Japan, charging that the USS Chafee had come dangerously close to a Russian vessel while intruding on Russia’s territorial waters. Russian media reports said the two ships came within 60 meters of each other.

  The US Navy later in the day refuted the claims, saying its ship was conducting legal “routine operations” in international waters while blaming the Russian warship for making an aggressive approach.

  

  The Kremlin said the Russian Navy “chased” the US destroyer out of the area, with the two contradictory narratives still unsettled. Further the region has seen Russia and Japan locked in an island dispute that goes back to WWII. Over the past couple of years, there’s been a handful of encounters between US and Russian ships, given neither the US nor its ally Japan recognize the extent of what Russia claims as territorial waters.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/18/2021 – 23:00

• NHL Suspends San Jose Sharks Player 21 Games For Submitting Fake COVID Vaccine Card
  NHL Suspends San Jose Sharks Player 21 Games For Submitting Fake COVID Vaccine Card

  The Kyrie Irving effect is spreading.

  In the latest farce involving pro sports covid “loopholes”, the AP reports that the NHL has suspended San Jose Sharks forward Evander Kane for 21 games for submitting a fake COVID-19 vaccination card.

  The league announced the suspension without pay on Monday and said Kane will not be eligible to play until Nov. 30 at New Jersey. Kane will also forfeit about $1.68 million of his $7 million salary for this season with the money going to the Players’ Emergency Assistance Fund.

  

  There was a silver lining: the league also announced that a concurrent investigation into allegations of sexual and physical abuse made against Kane by his estranged wife, Anna, could not be substantiated. Kane had previously been cleared by the NHL in an investigation into allegations made by Anna Kane that he bet on hockey games, including some against the Sharks.

  But while Kane probably did not beat the crap out of his estranged wife, the league did determine that Kane violated the COVID-19 protocols. A person familiar with the investigation said earlier this month that the league was looking into allegations that Kane submitted a fake vaccination card.

  Using a fake vaccination card is illegal in both the United States and Canada, as well as against NHL rules.

  Commissioner Gary Bettman said last week that only four players on active rosters hadn’t been vaccinated, although one wonder what the real number is.

  Kane had not been around the team since the start of training camp while these investigations were ongoing in an agreement between him and the team.

  Kane, 30, is three seasons into a $49 million, seven-year contract. He’s with his third organization after being drafted by and debuting with Atlanta/Winnipeg and a stint in Buffalo. Last season, he had 22 goals and 27 assists in 56 games.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/18/2021 – 22:40

• Female Writer Who Won World's Biggest Literary Prize Turns Out To Be Three Men
  Female Writer Who Won World’s Biggest Literary Prize Turns Out To Be Three Men

  An anonymous writer who has been likened to Italy’s pseudonymous Ellena Ferrante was just awarded a €1MM ($1.16MM dollars) literary prize for her dazzling work as a groundbreaking female author. There’s only one minor clarification though: she’s a he.

  

  Well, she’s actually three men. According to the FT, Carmen Mola, an author who until now has been presented as a female university professor writing under a pen name because of her desire for anonymity (something nobody would question since progressive critics would simply assume she’s doing this to protect herself from online hate hate speech), revealed her true identity to the world when the main prize was awarded in the presence of the Spanish King.

  When the writer’s name was called three men walked to the podium. It turns out, Mola was actually a collaboration between three Spanish TV writers (Mola is neither a woman nor an academic). Their names: Jorge Díaz, Agustín Martínez nor Antonio Mercero are academics. They have worked on scripts for shows including On Duty Pharmacy, Central Hospital and No Heaven Without Breasts.

  “Carmen Mola is not, like all the lies we’ve been telling, a university professor,” said Díaz on winning the prize. “We are three friends who one day four years ago decided to combine our talent to tell a story.”

  The group of men won the prize for a book titled The Beast, a historical thriller set during the cholera epidemic in 1834. During an interview with a Spanish newspaper, one of them claimed that they “didn’t hide behind a woman, we hid behind a name.”

  “I don’t know if a female pseudonym would sell more than a male one, I don’t have the faintest idea, but I doubt it,” he added.

  Carmen Mola was said by the men’s publishers, Penguin Random House, to be the pseudonym of a female writer born in Madrid. Mola was also described as a forty-something mother of three children, who worked as a professor while writing crime thrillers in her spare time.

  “Mola”, or the men hiding behind Mola, has also been interviewed by the Spanish press, and a picture has been shared on her publisher’s website depicting a woman with her back to the camera who was identified as Mola.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/18/2021 – 22:20

• FDA To Allow "Mixing and Matching" Of COVID Boosters
  FDA To Allow “Mixing and Matching” Of COVID Boosters

  mRNA or a disabled adenovirus? According to the latest iteration of the “science” it’s really all the same and just jam it in there, because as the NYT reports, the Food and Drug Administration will allow Americans to “mix and match”, i.e., receive a different Covid-19 vaccine as a booster than the one they initially received, a move that could “reduce the appeal of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine and provide flexibility to doctors and other vaccinators.”

  In other words, the mRNA lobby has just booked the entire second floor at Scores and is hoovering up industrial amounts of Colombian marching powder while surrounded by the best silicone money can rent.

  In the latest example that money talks and what was scientific consensus until this morning walks, the government would not recommend one shot over another, and may instead note that using the same vaccine as a booster when possible is preferable, but vaccine providers could use their discretion to offer a different brand, a freedom that state health officials have been requesting for weeks. Maybe one should check if the bank accounts of said state health officials have suddenly seen a mysterious inflow of outside funds that prompted their agitation.

  In any case, the approach was foreshadowed on Friday, when so-called “researchers” presented the findings of a federally funded “mix and match” study to an expert committee that advises the Food and Drug Administration. The study found that recipients of Johnson & Johnson’s single-dose shot who received a Moderna booster saw their antibody levels rise 76-fold in 15 days, compared with only a fourfold increase after an extra dose of Johnson & Johnson.

  We can only assume that this “study” is different than the one that took place just a few months ago that prompted the same NYT to report that “Britain Opens Door to Mix-and-Match Vaccinations, Worrying Experts“…

  

  … and in which we read that:

  Some scientists say Britain is gambling with its new guidance. “There are no data on this idea whatsoever,” said John Moore, a vaccine expert at Cornell University. Officials in Britain “seem to have abandoned science completely now and are just trying to guess their way out of a mess.”

  It now turns out that Britain was simply early in guessing which way a whole lot of bribes money can sway the “science” du jour.

  Amusingly, even as the FDA agonizes over greenlighting covid booster shots for Americans younger than 65 – having initially rejected the biotech/pharma lobbied outcome which has been eagerly sought by the Biden admin – Federal regulators this week are aiming to greatly expand the number of Americans eligible for booster shots. As such, the FDA is now expected to authorize boosters of the Moderna and Johnson & Johnson vaccines by Wednesday evening; it could allow the mix-and-match approach by then. The agency last month authorized booster shots of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for at least six months after the second dose.

  Then, on Thursday, a CDC advisory committee will also take up the booster issue and will then issue its own recommendations (to go ahead and do it because science says “mix and match” is cool). By the end of the week, tens of millions more Americans could be eligible for extra shots.

  So how exactly do we know that the “mixing and matching” that was anathema as recently as January is now to be encouraged? Well, because the “experts” emphasized last week that the new “data” was based on small groups of volunteers and short-term findings.

  We repeat: small groups of volunteers and short-term findings of mixing and matching revealed that all is well, so by extension, the protocol is perfectly suitable for hundreds of millions over years if not decades.

  Furthermore, only antibody levels — just one measure of the immune response — were calculated as part of the preliminary data, not the actual levels of immune cells primed to attack the coronavirus, which scientists say are also an important measure of a vaccine’s success. Then again, in a country that ignores natural covid immunity – because, well, that doesn’t lead to an even bigger yacht for certain biotech CEOs – this was to be expected.

  It gets better: perhaps in an attempt to mitigate its previously reported on how experts were “worried” due to precisely this “mix and match” approach, the NYT notes that “while the research on mixing and matching doses is somewhat thin, even some scientists who have strongly criticized the Biden administration’s booster policy said that providers should be given a measure of discretion as the campaign ramps up.”

  One wonders if these are the same “scientists” who strongly disagreed with a growing number of countries – such as Sweden, Norway and Finland – suspending use of the Moderna vaccine in young people “for precautionary reasons” following reports of “possible rare side effects.” Something tells us that that the answer is a resounding yes.

  “If you look at the data, it certainly looks like it might be better,” Dr. Paul A. Offit, the director of the Vaccine Education Center at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, said of Moderna or Pfizer boosters for Johnson & Johnson recipients. “I think we should move quickly on this, because it’s already happening.” He should know – after all this is the same Dr. Offit who was “honored by Bill and Melinda Gates during the launch of their Foundation’s Living Proof Project for global health.”

  Demonstrating just how extensively the scientific consensus can swing in under a year, at the meeting on Friday of the Food and Drug Administration’s expert panel – of which Dr. Offit is a member – top C.D.C. officials argued that providers needed latitude to offer different vaccines as boosters because – get this – patients might have had adverse reactions after their initial shots or presented other new concerns. In other words, a patient may not want a booster due to a bad experience with the original vaccine. So here’s the brilliant solution: just give them the other vaccine. And what’s most remarkable is that since this is fundamentally a ploy to get people who have had a JnJ vaccine to get a second, mRNA-based vaccine, the “scientific” thinking is that giving patients the same vaccine which was halted in various Scandinavian countries due to its “possible rare side effects” is literally what the doctor ordered.

  Ultimately, however, money is involved and as most of our readers know by now, money can induce some truly creative “scientific” thought. Like for example the thinking by Pfizer and Moderna CEOs who know that they need this approval to continue making billions from the vaccine: the federal government will cover the cost of a different vaccine as a booster only if the Food and Drug Administration authorizes the approach, officials told the NYT.

  “I’d like to reiterate how important it is from a programmatic perspective to have a little bit of flexibility,” Dr. Melinda Wharton, a top vaccine official at the C.D.C., told the F.D.A. panel. The same “little bit of flexibility” why the NYT back in January called “a mess” and “gambling”

  And just to avoid potentially embarrassing questions about conflicts of interest, the ironclad clause was invoked – the public health interest. 

  “From a public health perspective, there’s a clear need in some situations for individuals to receive a different vaccine,” said Dr. Amanda Cohn, another high-ranking C.D.C. official.

  Finally, what would yet another scientific flip-flop be if it didn’t include, you guessed it, Anthony Fauci.

  Anthony S. Fauci, the government’s top infectious disease expert, publicly suggested on Sunday that the government was headed toward granting greater leeway, at least for Johnson & Johnson recipients. “I believe there’s going to be a degree of flexibility of what a person who got the J.&J. originally can do, either with J.&J. or with the mix-and-match from other products,” he said on “Fox News Sunday.”

  A far cry from what he said in January, but that’s hardly news to anyone.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/18/2021 – 22:00

• North Korea May Have Test-Fired A Ballistic Missile, Japan Coast Guard Reports
  North Korea May Have Test-Fired A Ballistic Missile, Japan Coast Guard Reports

  Earlier this evening, South Korean news agency Yonhap reported that South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff said North Korea fired an unidentified projectile into the sea east of the Korean peninsula.

  

  North Korean state media images of a new cruise missile tested in September

  This is the sixth “projectile” test so far in 2021:

  • March 25, 2021: North Korea carried out test-launch of two upgraded KN-23 short-range ballistic missiles carrying a 2.5 live warhead each that correctly hit the simulated targets. While North Korea official statement reported a 600 km range, Japanese and South Korean sources reported that the missiles flew just over 400 km. Later, the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff revised their range assessment of new North Korean missile to 600 km and the Defense Minister said that blind spots due to earth curvature led to initial estimate of 450 km.

  • September 11, 2021: North Korea carried out tests of a new long-range cruise missile on 11 and 12 September 2021, according to the KCNA. The missiles flew for 1,500 kilometres and successfully hit their target in North Korea’s waters, and were meant for a “strategic role” according to the news agency, which analyst Ankit Panda stated was a common euphemism for a missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

  • September 15, 2021: North Korea fired two unidentified ballistic missiles towards the Sea of Japan. Japan’s Ministry of Defense stated that they had landed in the country’s exclusive economic zone. The South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff reported that the missiles flew for 800 kilometres, while reaching an altitude of 60 kilometres, and were fired from Yangdok County. KCNA later stated that they were part of a railway-borne missile system.

  • September 28, 2021: A short-range missile was fired by North Korea towards the Sea of Japan from Chagang Province, according to South Korean officials. The Japanese government meanwhile suspected it to be a ballistic missile. Rodong Sinmun stated that North Korea had tested a new hypersonic missile called Hwasong-8 and it was launched from Toyang-ri in Ryongrim County. The test, including that of its gliding warhead, was a success according to the state media, which also called it a weapon of “great strategic significance”.

  • September 30, 2021: KCNA stated that North Korea had successfully tested a new anti-aircraft missile. It added that the missile contained the new technologies of twin-rudder control and double-impulse flight engine.

  Later, in an emailed statement, the Japanese Coast Guard said that North Korea launched what may have been a ballistic missile.

  

  Missiles on display at at a military parade in January 2021

  This test comes just days after the US Defense Department warns that North Korea may resume long-range ballistic missile tests in the year 2022.

  As NHK reports, the Defense Intelligence Agency, an intelligence arm of the US Defense Department, on Friday released a report that examined the current situation of North Korea’s military power, including its nuclear weapons and missiles.

  The report says, “North Korean leaders view nuclear arms as critical to regime survival,” and “It is possible we could see a test of a long-range missile over the next year.”

  The report adds North Korea also will work to improve its newer solid-fueled ballistic missiles, which can be made ready for launch more quickly than liquid-fueled ones.

  It also says, “Integrating a nuclear weapon with a ballistic missile and enabling that nuclear-armed missile to function reliably as a system is North Korea’s ultimate operational goal.”

  It notes that “further underground nuclear tests to validate weapon capabilities are possible.”

  The report did not cite any specific intel suggesting such a possibility, but it may just have come true tonight.

  The reported test-firing comes just hours after Tongil Voice, a North Korean propaganda radio broadcast, said on its website Seoul should take actions to improve cross-border relations before such a declaration can be made.

  “Currently, inter-Korean relations are unstable and remain in a stern, strained phase,” it said.

  “If an end-of-war declaration is made while neglecting the current hostile and opposing relations, (the two sides) will fall into the evil cycle of conflict even before the ink dries up.”

  It cited Seoul’s recent arms buildup and joint military exercises with the United States as the cause of tensions on the peninsula.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/18/2021 – 21:45

• Northern California Gets Reprieve From Worst Drought In Century As Rain And Snow Fall   
  Northern California Gets Reprieve From Worst Drought In Century As Rain And Snow Fall   

  The National Weather Service (NWS) said drought-stricken Northern California might catch a break from wildfire season this week as several weather events of rain and snow move across the area. 

  An NWS meteorologist in Sacramento, Emily Heller, said precipitation has already begun to fall in some areas, with more expected by the weekend. 

  “It is definitely going to help things out,” Heller said. “Whether we can say fire season is quote-unquote over, we will have to hear from the i-mets in the field, but it will definitely be helpful.”

  A little less than two inches of rain is expected across the Bay Area this week from a series of storms coming from the Northwest. Higher altitudes in the eastern portions of Sierra Nevada could see more than a half-foot of snow. 

  An official 10.3″ of #snow at our 8am measurement today!

  Continued light snow is currently occurring. #CAwx #CAwater pic.twitter.com/WCIgWHY2kd

  — UC Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab (@UCB_CSSL) October 18, 2021

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  NWS issued a winter weather advisory on Monday for the Sierra Nevada area. 

  

  The storms could surpass average monthly rainfall totals, a major relief for the area that has seen hundreds of thousands of acres scorched by wildfires. San Francisco could see some of the biggest rainfall precip in a year. 

  

  According to the California Department of Water Resources, California has reported its driest water year in nearly a century. The U.S. Drought Monitor shows 87% of the state is experiencing extreme or exceptional drought. About half of the state is in the worst category. 

  

  In the months ahead, the news gets better for Northern California and the Pacific Northwest as the Climate Prediction Center, an arm of the NWS, has called for La Niña conditions, which means wetter than average conditions might alleviate some of these drought-stricken areas. As for Southern and Central California, La Niña means a drier than average winter. 

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/18/2021 – 21:30

• Minnesota Hospital Shuts Down ER And Urgent Care Amid Nurse Strike
  Minnesota Hospital Shuts Down ER And Urgent Care Amid Nurse Strike

  By Jack Philips of Epoch Times,

  A hospital in Minnesota confirmed it temporarily shut down its emergency room and urgent care facility due to a nurse strike.

  

  Allina Health, located in Plymouth, said in a statement that due to the strike, emergency and urgent care services at its WestHealth location were suspended from Sunday morning until Wednesday.

  “No other services on the WestHealth campus have been impacted,” Allina Health’s statement said before it redirected people to seek urgent or emergency care at its Abbott Northwestern Hospital Emergency Department and other locations.

  The City of Plymouth also confirmed that the hospital’s emergency room and urgent care facilities were shut down, releasing a list of nearby locations for emergency services on its website.

  About 50 emergency room nurses organized by the Minnesota Nurses Association walked off the job, demanding more benefits and holiday pay, the organization told local media.

  “Compensating nurses fairly for holiday pay is especially critical because understaffing by Allina and other hospital systems has required nurses to work more days and longer hours, including overtime and holidays, as they continue on the front lines of the COVID-19 pandemic,” the firm said.

  But Allina Health and Abbott Northwestern WestHealth negotiated seven times with the statewide union, noting that a “settlement was previously reached and unanimously recommended” by the union. However, the Minnesota Nurses Association didn’t finalize the deal and went ahead with the strike.

  “Throughout negotiations, we have consistently offered proposals that demonstrate our commitment to our employees, including an immediate wage increase to align wages with other metro hospitals and agreeing to some of the union’s other priority issues,” the firm said.

  But one striking nurse, union chairwoman Sonya Worner, told Fox9 that Allina Health carried out “a diabolical decision to shut down care to the residents, as well as their own revenue.”

  “This could literally end tomorrow if we got a call saying, ‘Yes we’ll offer you summer holiday pay as part of this package,’” Worner added.

  The nurses’ work stoppage in Plymouth comes as hundreds of thousands of workers in other industries went on strike in recent days. About 10,000 unionized John Deere employees voted to go on strike last week after claiming that the agriculture equipment and tractor manufacturer failed to come up with a contract proposal that met their demands.

  Meanwhile, Kaiser Permanente healthcare workers voted earlier this month to authorize a strike in Oregon and California, potentially enabling thousands of nurses, doctors, and other staff to walk off their jobs in the coming days.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/18/2021 – 21:10

• Australian Official Lashes Out At Ted Cruz After "Covid Tyranny" Tweet: 'Glad We're Not Like Texas'
  Australian Official Lashes Out At Ted Cruz After “Covid Tyranny” Tweet: ‘Glad We’re Not Like Texas’

  Days ago Texas Senator Ted Cruz called out Australia’s extreme Covid policies as but more “Covid tyranny”. The policies have lately received widespread scorn and mockery from many conservative commentators and political pundits, so perhaps it was only a matter of time before US Congressional leaders joined in. 

  “The Covid tyranny of their current government is disgraceful & sad. Individual liberty matters. I stand with the people of Australia,” Cruz had tweeted out, commenting on a video featuring top Australian official Michael Gunner rolling out what’s widely being called the world’s strictest vaccine mandate to date. 

  I love the Aussies. Their history of rugged independence is legendary; I’ve always said Australia is the Texas of the Pacific.

  The Covid tyranny of their current government is disgraceful & sad.

  Individual liberty matters.

  I stand with the people of #Australia https://t.co/9elCF0KRA3

  — Ted Cruz (@tedcruz) October 13, 2021

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  Gunner, who is chief minister of Australia’s Northern Territory, went through a litany of occupations that required getting the jab in order for venues to safely reopen. 

  “If your job includes interacting with members of the public, then you need to get the jab,” he said of the new mandate. He had listed off jobs ranging from hospitality, to work in retail or supermarkets, to bank tellers, and hair dressers as among the many occupations that will require it.

  All Australians whose professional work will involve any interaction with the public are now mandated to get the vaccine, or else face steep fines and other possible measures:

  The territory announced last week that workers who interact with the public must receive their first vaccination shot by Nov. 12 or face a $5,000 fine, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation reported. About 68% of its residents were already fully vaccinated as of Sunday.

  On Sunday, a clearly incensed Michael Gunner fired back at the Texas Republican – unusual in that Cruz was offering a critique which was not officially representative of the US government. Thus it’s clear that Cruz’s tweet got under the Australian politician’s skin. 

  “Here are some facts,” the Australian official wrote. “Nearly 70,000 Texans have tragically died from COVID. There have been zero deaths in the [Northern] Territory. Did you know that? Vaccination is so important here because we have vulnerable communities and the oldest continuous living culture on the planet to protect. Did you know that?”

  G’day from Down Under @tedcruz. Thanks for your interest in the Territory. I’m the Chief Minister. Below are a few facts about COVID down here. https://t.co/cGFwBP7Nqx pic.twitter.com/mGNyOxlN41

  — Michael Gunner (@fanniebay) October 18, 2021

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  Gunner went on: “We don’t need your lectures, thanks mate,” according to the tweeted message.

  “You know nothing about us. And if you stand against a life-saving vaccine, then you sure as hell don’t stand with Australia. I love Texas (go Longhorns), but when it comes to COVID, I’m glad we are nothing like you.”

  But clearly many Aussie citizens themselves are not at all happy to be living under a government that’s made living normal daily life pretty much impossible and “a thing of the past”, resulting in recent huge protests, and in turn sending more and more police to the streets and out in force at supposedly “dangerous” public parks.

  Australia: Heavy NWO police presence in Melbourne in anticipation of anti-vaccine mandate protests

  Military-style police vehicles could be seen parked on streets as police patrolled parks, arresting people who didn’t comply with coronavirus restrictions. pic.twitter.com/ZpJ6rgebfS

  — WakeUpHumans (@Thunderace4) October 16, 2021

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  Seemingly endless examples have come out of Australia over the course the pandemic demonstrating that individuals’ rights have often been completely suspended, including government agents literally combing people’s Facebook posts for signs of merely attending protests – and literally showing up their door unannounced in Gestapo-like fashion.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/18/2021 – 20:50

• One Bank Reveals The Dismal Truth About The $150 Trillion Crusade Against Climate Change
  One Bank Reveals The Dismal Truth About The $150 Trillion Crusade Against Climate Change

  Last week, Bank of America sparked a firestorm of reaction amid both the pro and contra climate change camps, when it published one of its massive “Thematic Research” tomes, this time covering the “Transwarming” World (available to all ZH pro subs), and which serves as a key primer to today’s Net Zero reality, if for no other reason than for being one of the first banks to quantify the cost of the biggest economic, ecologic and social overhaul in modern history.

  The bottom line: no less than a stunning $150 trillion in new capital investment would be required to reach a “net zero” world over 30 years – equating to some $5 trillion in annual investments – and amounting to twice current global GDP.

  Needless to say, the private sector has nowhere near the capital required to complete this investment which is why Bank of America generously estimate that all or parts of the bill would have to be footed by central banks in the form of tens of trillions in QE. And since QE is essentially debt monetization, and since $150 trillion in new debt would have devastating consequences on the economy, BofA was kind enough to share its calculation of just how inflationary this billionaire pet project would be: the “full monetization” scenario, where central banks inject $5 trillion in liquidity every year via QE for 30 years, would result in incremental 3% of inflation for a good decade. This is inflation over and above whatever is already coming down the pipeline.

  

  Which is where we get to the punchline, because as BofA admits, the crusade against climate change, the ESG doctrine, the “Net Zero” world, whatever one wants to call it, it’s all about greenlighting the biggest QE episode in history, one wrapped in the “noble” veneer of fighting for the most important cause in the history of civilization, but in reality it’s just the biggest wealth transfer scheme in history:

  We just see a peak of <1% additional inflation a year over a three decade horizon. Under more aggressive scenarios where central banks opt to absorb either half or the full decarbonization bills through quantitative easing, the risks of an inflation shock grow. Still, we think our third case is the most likely scenario, as it would be politically difficult to justify a much more expansive monetary impulse. True, while central bankers have expressed a desire to help green the economy, their corporate bond purchases have historically been restricted to crisis time policies through quantitative easing and remain well below purchases of sovereign debt. As such, any purchases of corporate green bonds would likely be limited both by the size of future purchase programs and their proportion relative to the overall corporate bond market, with slightly higher allocations under more progressive purchase policies that highlight environmental concerns

  At this point alarm bells should be going off even among the most brain-dead progressives because for all its touted benefits, the costs are starting to emerge and – at least when it comes to the next two or three generations – they will be absolutely crushing for the middle class, while allowing the top 1% to plunder and pillage virtually all the world’s assets. Think of it as the biggest mandated theft in world history, and suddenly one can understand why every private-jet setting billionaire is oh so very vocally in support of a “net zero” world.

  It gets worse.

  Now that the genie is out of the bottle, and the hard questions like “who gets to pay for all this” are being asked, Bank of America had a follow up report in which it made it abundantly clear that “contrary to some arguments, we think climate mitigation efforts are likely to hurt growth in the next decade or so.”

  In his note titled “A hot take on climate change” (once again available to professional subscribers in the usual place), Bank of America chief economist Ethan Harris first goes through all the familiar steps of just why it is so imperative – and noble – to do something to fight greenhouse gases (similar to what we have read for much of the early part of the 20th century, when article after article starting in 1912 lamented the catastrophe that is global warming, at least until the 1970s when the lack of actual global warming prompted “scientists” to suggest that global cooling and “a new ice age” is inevitable instead). At least the scientists could agree that it’s “global something” (turns out it would really mean “global money printing“), and as Harris laid it out, this is what “scientific consensus” appears to agree on now:

  1. Human behavior is having a significant impact on climate change and climate events.
  2. Even under optimistic assumptions—such as achieving net zero emissions by 2050—the impacts will likely grow over this century.
  3. Early action is much more effective than waiting until later.
  4. Uncertainty about the exact impact is not an excuse for inaction: a wide range of outcomes means more, not less urgency in acting.

  None of the above is new as the mainstream media has been bombarding its audience for the past decade with emotional platitudes and qualitative appeals as to why something has to be done.

  However, as we first touched upon last week, any discussion of the economics of climate change should start and end with the fact
  that it is the ultimate example of “externalities”—private activities (usually for corporations who scions and shareholders are by now in the top 0.01% of global wealth) that create public costs. Indeed, as Harris writes, climate change is the ultimate externality because activity in one place impacts the whole world. The fact that climate change is global in nature and that so much of the benefit of actions accrues to everyone else has some powerful implications.

  First, unlike other technology “races”, climate mitigation is more of a cooperative “game” than a competition. When countries like the US and China “compete” to develop new technologies, two points of conflict often tend to arise—a fight for market share and a fight for geopolitical superiority. By contrast, countries that develop efficient climate mitigation technologies have a strong incentive to share the benefits. If they hoard the technology, the impact on their own climate will be much smaller.

  This is great… if only it weren’t a pipe dream. Why? Because as the recent refusal by China’s Xi Jinping – incidentally the world’s largest polluter – to join his fellow “climate change crusading” world leaders at the COP26 Net Zero summit in Italy later this month, it’s all one giant spectacle meant for the masses. Because if the world’s largest polluter is making it clear he has no interest in actually reducing his own CO emissions, then anyone preaching some bullshit about a “cooperative game” can shove it.

  Still, where Harris is somewhat correct, is in pointing out the “depressing consensus out of the climate change literature” that even if everyone cooperates, the earth will continue to warm as there are lags in the link between GHG and global warming. Indeed, under the best of outcomes—with every country hitting aggressive mid-century goals—the policy shift will mitigate, not stop the problem. Hence in BofA’s view, “climate events will be a rising downside risk—of varying intensity—under almost any plausible scenario.”

  In other words, the net zero theater of the absurd is one where the actors’ motives clearly diverge – when only a convergence from the start could make it work – yet where even a best case scenario of complete cooperation has no chance of actually stopping the problem, just mitigating it. Oh, and meanwhile, the world is set to incur some $150 trillion in costs.

  Which then brings us to BofA’s core assessment: will all this be good or bad for growth? Here, we find some unexpected truth…

  In BofA’s view, both press reports and many of the studies of climate change focus on the wrong side of the economy—the impact on aggregate demand rather than on productive capacity. For example, the latest report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) argues that pushing toward net zero emissions would lower employment in the traditional energy sector by 5 million by 2030, but would add 14 million jobs in the clean energy sector. They also argue that “the increase in jobs and investment stimulates economic output, resulting in a net increase in global GDP to 2030.” Global GDP growth averages 0.4 higher over the 2020 to 2030 period. The downside would be that some countries would be winners and others would be losers, and that inflation – once one factors in the trillions and trillions of central bank QE needed to fund this whole crusade – could be 1-to-3% higher.

  Here Bank of America disagrees, writing that by the time serious climate mitigation efforts are underway the global economy will likely be close to full employment. This will likely be the case in the US. Hence staffing up the industry means drawing workers out of the rest of the economy. At the same time, building up green energy infrastructure will require more than a doubling of investment in the sector, from roughly 2% of GDP now to a 4.5% average over the 2020-30 period. Where is that 2.5% of GDP going to come from? (spoiler alert: money printing, and everyone knows this).

  Or maybe note: Harris admits that in the short run, central banks could in effect accommodate the surge in demand, allowing their economies to overheat. Hence the IEA estimate of 1-to-3% higher inflation. However, the BofA economist disagrees with that estimate as well. If the Fed allows a permanent overshoot of economic potential, inflation will not just increase, it would trend higher. As in the 1970s there will be a feedback loop between price inflation, wage inflation and price expectations.

  Translation: the “net zero” crusade against climate change really is…. the necessary and sufficient condition to trigger the hyperinflation that the world’s massively indebted nations need to inflate away their debt.

  But wait, there’s more, because as Harris concedes next, in reality, while inflation is set to soar, climate mitigation is “also likely to slow the supply side of the economy,  particularly in the ramping up phase.” He explains further:

  Big structural changes in the economy tend to create big transitional challenges. Workers need to move from one sector to another, some industries will boom while others shrink, and as regulations and taxes increase, capital that had been invested in producing and using dirty energy will rapidly become obsolete.

  All of this means lower trend growth during the transition from a dirty to a green economy. And, as noted above, there isn’t even any assurance that a transition to a green economy will ever be completed once it has begun; at best, we may be stuck in the “mitigation” phase for ever.

  The highly asymmetric payoff – BofA concedes – comes in the very long-run, with the benefits accreting here and now to those who stand to reap the generosity of central bank printing, which naturally will be those who own the inflation-resistant assets such as stocks, commodities and, of course, cryptos; while the pain borne by everyone else which – sadly – means the shrinking middle and lower classes, who however are “in it for the long run”, and for the benefits that a cleaner climate will (perhaps) provide their grandchildren and great grandchildren. Their generation, however, will be sacrificed at the altar of the 0.1% good. Because like every true religion, “climate change” also requires a sacrifice so a handful of chosen ones can live better.

  Just the tip of the iceberg

  So much for theory, what is happening on the ground? As Harris explains, the progress on policy is painfully slow as some policies continue to worsen rather than help the problem. Consider two examples. First, according to IEA, countries spend more than $400BN per year subsidizing mainly oil, but also gas and electricity consumption. In many instances there is a conflict between helping the poor and helping the environment. Second, despite what BofA calls “rising sea levels and increased hurricane activity,” some countries incentivize locating houses in harm’s way through subsidized insurance and disaster relief. Almost as if the countries themselves, and certainly the Malibu beachfront billionaires, don’t actually believe in – gasp – rising sea levels. Again there is a conflict between two goals—helping vulnerable people and reducing the cost of climate events.

  Meanwhile, climate change and mitigation efforts already appear to be impacting the global economy. While scientists are very careful to avoid assigning a causal relationship between climate change and individual climate events – perhaps for the same reason that “science” emerged as a politically-motivated farce when reaching rash, ideologically-driven conclusions during the covid spectacle  – but they point to some disturbing trends. Consider two examples highlighted by BofA: “First, data published by the Environmental Protection Agency show that the number of wildfires in the US has shown no trend from 1983 to 2020. However, when they focus only on large fires, the amount of acres burned seems to have shifted up significantly starting in about 2000. Second, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory collates studies of hurricanes and tropical cyclones. Its report is sprinkled with the usual qualifiers (medium to high confidence) but the evidence points to an increase in the intensity of storms in recent years.” Dear Bank of America – this is called tortured goal seeking: squeeze the data hard enough and any pattern you want will eventually emerge.

  More importantly, BofA admits that there is now evidence that climate change and mitigation play “some role” in the recent rise in energy prices (to this we would counter that not only does climate change mitigation play “some role” but that the chief reason for the global energy crisis is the idiotic push for a ESG utopia, something which we warned would happen back in June in “Will ESG Trigger Energy Hyperinflation“).

  But where it gets worse is that given the regulatory outlook, and the now prevailing stigma associated with any fossil fuels, investment in dirty energy capacity will be low and depend on high prices. Meanwhile green energy is not ramping up fast enough to fill the gap. Hilariously, changes in wind and rain patterns seem to have affected the supply of wind and hydro power. The same wind and hydro power that was supposed to lead the world out of its fossil fuel addiction. Because so blind were the scientists in pushing their political agenda, they failed to see what was right in front of their noses, the same way Reuters figured out last week that European and U.S. cities planning to phase out combustion engines over the next 15 years first need to plug a charging gap for millions of residents who park their cars on the street. Oops – perhaps in retrospect, the policymakers and scientists should have though of the blindingly obvious first, instead of rushing to goalseek the agenda to makes them the most monetary benefits…

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/18/2021 – 20:30

• La Nina Sparks Early Freeze In China As Coal Supplies Languish
  La Nina Sparks Early Freeze In China As Coal Supplies Languish

  China Meteorological Administration (CMA) warns of a La Nina weather pattern which has already brought in the first round of cooler weather. Temperatures across China are plunging, and the power crisis is worsening as demand for electricity generation ticks higher, straining coal supplies. 

  Thermal coal futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange jumped as much as 8% to $284, a record high, on Monday, following reports provinces will begin the traditional heating season earlier than anticipated. 

  

  CMA said temperatures slid more than 10 degrees Celsius in recent days across eastern China. There are reports snow has begun to fall in parts of Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang. Across the country, mean temperatures have tumbled in the last several weeks. 

  

  Last month, Bloomberg reported that China’s central government officials “ordered the country’s top state-owned energy companies to secure supplies for this winter at all costs.”

  Translation: Beijing is no longer willing to risk social anger, and in the future, China will be subsidizing coil and natural gas, which will lead to even higher prices, which will lead to even higher prices for other “substitute” commodities such as oil, which is why Brent and WTI have are at 7-year highs. 

  But even with panic buying, sluggish September fuel supplies raised concerns that domestic production will be unable to meet rising demand for electricity generation this winter. 

  Reuters said coal production in China was around 334.1 million tons last month, down from 335.24 million tons in August. The ability to boost coal production has hit roadblocks as flooding closed dozens of top-producing mines in the country.  

  “The Chinese government is losing the battle to control rising coal prices,” said Alex Whitworth, head of Asia Pacific Power and Renewables Research at Wood Mackenzie. “Despite efforts to increase coal supply, weather, security, and logistics challenges caused production to fall in September. Nor has China been able to rein in rising electricity demand.” 

  The National Energy Administration said electricity consumption in September climbed 6.8% compared with last year and increased 12.9% for the first three quarters of this year. 

  Last week, China introduced market reforms to allow electricity prices to rise 20% to incentivize power plants to generate power. Some plants were shuttered or reduced capacity because higher input prices such as coal and natural gas have made electricity production uneconomical. 

  “The recent price liberalization for coal power utilities and industrial end-users is a sign that the government does not believe it can control coal prices in the near future,” Whitworth said.

  The latest round of news suggests it’s all hands on deck for Beijing as the traditional heating season begins earlier this year as the country races to secure coal to rebuild depleted stockpiles. 

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/18/2021 – 20:10

• Locked & Loaded: Supreme Court Is Ready To Take Aim At The Second Amendment
  Locked & Loaded: Supreme Court Is Ready To Take Aim At The Second Amendment

  Authored by Jonathan Turley,

  Below is my column in the Hill on the makings of a blockbuster case in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association Inc. v. Bruen, the first major gun rights case before the Supreme Court in ten years.  Justices have been openly discussing a case to push back on lower courts that have been chipping away at its Second Amendment jurisprudence. They found that case with a strikingly familiar plaintiff.

  

  Here is the column:

  In the movie “True Grit,” federal marshal Rooster Cogburn is asked if the gun that he brandished at a crime scene was loaded. Cogburn, played by John Wayne, dryly responds, “A gun that’s unloaded and cocked ain’t good for nothing.” Something similar might be said of a Supreme Court docket, particularly when there is a Second Amendment case that could prove one of the most impactful decisions of the term.

  The court will soon take up New York State Rifle & Pistol Association Inc. v. Bruen, more than a decade after its last major gun rights decision. The case promises to be a showdown between the Supreme Court and lower courts, which have been chipping away at the high court’s prior Second Amendment rulings.

  In 2008, the Supreme Court handed down a landmark ruling in District of Columbia v. Heller, recognizing the Second Amendment as encompassing an individual right to bear arms. Two years after Heller, in McDonald v. City of Chicago, the court ruled that this right applied against the states.

  The new case concerns concealed-carry restrictions under N.Y. Penal Law § 400.00(2)(f) that require a showing of “proper cause.” Lower courts have upheld the New York law, but there are ample constitutional concerns over its vague standard, such as showing that you are “of good moral character.” The case presents a single short, direct question — whether New York’s denial of petitioners’ applications for concealed-carry licenses for self-defense violated the Second Amendment.

  The high court has been carefully waiting for just the right case to address states and cities that have sought to limit gun rights. Indeed, just this week, the court turned down a challenge of a Wisconsin law imposing a lifetime ban on gun ownership for former felons, including cases involving nonviolent crimes. That and other cases seemed tailor-made for Justice Amy Coney Barrett, who wrote a strong defense of the Second Amendment in a similar case as an appellate judge.

  It often is difficult to determine which side of the court supplied the votes to grant review in a case. That is not the situation here. The New York case was clearly accepted by conservative justices with a mind toward reversal of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 2nd Circuit.

  The selection of a New York case is particularly poignant. Some of the justices were none too pleased with the Big Apple last year when city officials suddenly sought to withdraw a case on the court’s docket. New York politicians had passed a law that many of us viewed as unconstitutional, with its imposition of burdensome limits on the transportation of lawful guns from homes. Those politicians publicly thumped their chests about going to the Supreme Court with the law and limiting the Second Amendment precedent; professing absolute confidence, they litigated the law, and, again, the 2nd Circuit supported the dubious statute. The Supreme Court accepted the case for review and was expected to overturn the law — until New York suddenly changed the law and then quietly sought to withdraw its case before any ruling.

  The court ultimately dismissed the case but did so over the objections of three dissenting justices. It was a rare instance in which the court resisted such a mootness ruling after a party sought to withdraw — but, then, few litigants have had the temerity to do what New York did. Justices Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch and Clarence Thomas specifically called out New York for “manipulating” the docket by withdrawing an unconstitutional law just before a final opinion. Justice Brett Kavanaugh joined in the condemnation and added menacingly that “some federal and state courts may not be properly applying Heller and McDonald. The Court should address that issue soon, perhaps in one of the several Second Amendment cases with petitions for certiorari now pending before the Court.”

  The court then did precisely that, by accepting a case with the very same plaintiffs: New York State Rifle & Pistol Association. On this occasion, however, the court is unlikely to tolerate another bait-and-switch by state officials trying to withdraw the case at the last minute.

  If those four justices are still intent on pushing back on lower courts, they need only Chief Justice John Roberts or Barrett to hand down a major ruling in favor of gun rights.

  The briefs filed in the case include groups such the Cato Institute, which directly confronted the court about it being legally absent without leave on gun rights for more than a decade. Cato has argued that judicial “inaction has contributed to the Second Amendment’s demise. It’s no secret that many federal courts have engaged in systematic resistance to Heller and McDonald.”

  Many point to the court’s statement in Heller, which acknowledged that “like most rights, the right secured by the Second Amendment is not unlimited.” It then listed possible “sensitive places” for denying permits to former felons. Lower courts limiting gun rights have repeated those lines like a mantra, and the high court appears poised to bring clarity to that ambiguity.

  Bruen has many of the same elements as Heller, including a rich historical discussion of what gun ownership has meant through history. Notably, English subjects in the American colonies were the first to receive written guarantees of the right to bear arms for self-defense; settlers of the Virginia colony in 1607 and the New England colony in 1620 were subjects under royal charters recognizing that right. In England, the right to bear arms was formally declared in the 1689 Declaration of Rights that stated that the right to arms was among the subjects’ “true, ancient and indubitable rights.”

  That history will weigh heavily in the court defining the right of people to carry weapons in self-defense outside of the home. In many ways, Bruen is the shot not taken last year in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association Inc. v. City of New York. Now the same plaintiffs are back, and New York has supplied another perfect case for the expansion of gun rights. So if you are wondering if Bruen is loaded, at least four justices are likely to agree that a Second Amendment case “that’s unloaded and cocked ain’t good for nothing.”

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/18/2021 – 19:50

• "Striketober" – Walk-Outs Surge As Workers See Opportunity In Rising Job Openings
  “Striketober” – Walk-Outs Surge As Workers See Opportunity In Rising Job Openings

  Some labor experts have opined that the failure of a group of workers at an Amazon warehouse in Bessemer, Ala. to succeed in their battle to form a union should blunt the nascent revival in the American labor movement. But as the number of American workers who decided to quit their jobs during the prior month soared to a record high north of 4MM, the number of open jobs in the US remains north of 10MM. For the first time in decades, workers have the power in the labor market. And they’re using this newfound leverage to launch a flurry of strikes, creating another headache for their preoccupied bosses.

  

  According to Reuters, thousands of workers are on strike across the US. Data maintained by Cornell show 176 strikes have been called this year, with 17 in October alone.

  

  They’re demanding high pay and better conditions, among other things, and some of them are already winning or at least reaching a settlement. Just this weekend, Hollywood make-up artists and camera operators reached a deal  to avoid a walkout.

  

  This victory in Hollywood, combined with the latest JOLTS numbers, are bound to be encouraging.

  Kevin Bradshaw, an employee at Kellogg’s cereal plant in Memphis, Tennessee, where most of North America’s Frosted Flakes are made, told Reuters he opposes cuts to healthcare coverage, retirement benefits and vacation time that union officials say the company is pushing for from about 1,400 workers. They have been on strike since Oct. 5 at plants in Michigan, Nebraska, Pennsylvania and Tennessee.

  “Enough is enough,” said Bradshaw, vice president of Bakery, Confectionary, Tobacco Workers and Grain Millers International Union Local 252G at the Memphis plant. “We can’t afford to keep giving away things to a company that financially has made record-breaking returns.”

  Kellogg’s labor activists complain that their members were deemed “essential” during the start of the COVID pandemic, yet, despite this, the manner in which they are treated by management hasn’t changed.

  Another thing workers hope will benefit them in their struggle (although, in the end, disappointment isn’t just possible, but likely): the Democrats are back in control in Washington. But workers who expect President Biden to have their backs should remember that the Dems and President Biden are restricted by their corporate backers.

  Still, so far, at least 176 strikes have been launched this year, including 17 in October alone, according to data from Cornell’s Labor Action Tracker.

  “Workers are on strike for a better deal and a better life,” said Liz Shuler, president of the AFL-CIO, the country’s biggest labor federation, during a conference for business journalists.

  “The pandemic really did lay bare the inequities of our system and working people are refusing to return to crappy jobs that put their health at risk,” she added, noting that the term #Striketober was trending on Twitter.

  There have been some setbacks, yet overall, union laaders are still hopeful. Union membership has declined to just 11% of workers today, down from more than 20% in late 1983. What’s more, Americans’ support for unions has risen to its highest level in decades. 68% of Americans now approve of unions, the highest level since 1965, according to Gallup.

  “We have entered a new era in labor relations,” said Harley Shaiken, professor emeritus of labor at the University of California Berkeley. “Workers feel they’re in the driver’s seat and there’s plenty of lost ground to make up.”

  “What we’re seeing is a fight to return or at least stay in the middle class,” he said.

  Back in April, President Biden – who has struggled to appeal to working-class whites by playing up his ties to organized labor – created a task force to promote labor organizing. Biden also spoke out in support of the workers in Bessemer before  their vote, which organizers insist was unfairly tampered with by Amazon.

  Other setbacks for the bosses have popped up in Beaumont, Texas, where Exxon Mobil ordered a lockout of 650 workers from its refinery and an adjacent plant since May after a local chapter of the United Steelworkers union refused to submit a contract proposal. Union leaders have scheduled a vote on the contract for Tuesday, but have urged members to reject it. Some members are moving to try and decertify the union.

  Exxon said the lockout was necessary to avoid the disruption of a possible strike and the changes to seniority it wants to impose were needed to ensure profitability. Some union members have moved to decertify the union. Over at John Deere, which makes farm equipment, 90% of its 10K workers recently launched a strike.

  And according to Reuters, one industry that’s ripe for labor unrest is health-care.

  More than 28,000 healthcare workers at 13 Southern California Kaiser Permanente hospitals and hundreds of medical centers voted overwhelmingly earlier this month to authorize a strike. They want more pay and higher levels of staffing to reduce burnout worsened by the pandemic. That demand is echoed by nearly 2,000 healthcare workers who have been on strike since Oct. 1 in Buffalo, New York. “We’ve been working short at Mercy for five years,” Kathy Kelly, who has been a nurse for 38 years at the Catholic Health System’s Mercy Hospital, said while on break from picketing. “Enough’s enough. We can only give so much.”

  Anybody searching for more data on labor actions can check the ILR data from Cornell, which can be found here.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/18/2021 – 19:30

• Chicago Mayor Accuses Police Union Of Trying To 'Induce An Insurrection' Over Vaccine Mandate
  Chicago Mayor Accuses Police Union Of Trying To ‘Induce An Insurrection’ Over Vaccine Mandate

  Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot – who appears to have violated both local and state mask mandates at the WNBA finals yesterday – said that the city’s Fraternal Order of Police is attempting to “induce an insurrection” using misinformation to oppose vaccine mandates.

  

  “We believe that the FOP leadership is trying to foment an illegal workstop, and a strike – plain and simple… The contract is clear and has been known for a long time. The police union is not authorized to strike.”

  “What we’ve seen from the FOP, in particular the leadership, is a lot of misinformation. A lot of half-truths and frankly flat-out lies, in order to induce an insurrection.”

  Watch:

  NEW: Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot says the city’s Fraternal Order of Police is attempting to “induce an insurrection” by opposing vaccine mandate.pic.twitter.com/XaFArFjcmi

  — Breaking911 (@Breaking911) October 18, 2021

  Last week, the head of the Chicago police officers union on Tuesday called on its members to refuse to comply with the city’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate, which took effect on Friday.

  “Do not fill out the portal information,” Chicago Fraternal Order of Police President John Catanzara said in a video to officers posted on YouTube.

  “I’ve made my status very clear as far as the vaccine, but I do not believe the city has the authority to mandate that to anybody—let alone that information about your medical history.”

  “It’s safe to say that the city of Chicago will have a police force at 50 percent or less for this weekend coming up,” Catanzara added.

  Lightfoot’s mandate requires city workers to report their vaccine status by Friday or be placed on a “no-pay” status.

  

  On Friday, the FOP and Lightfoot’s administration sued each other – with the city filing a complaint against the union and Catanzara for supporting a “work stoppage or strike regarding the vaccine mandate.”

  Hours later, the FOP filed suit against Lightfoot and Chicago PD Supt. David Brown, accusing them of failing to negotiate with the union over the mandate, according to CBS2 Chicago.

  At a hearing late Friday afternoon, city attorneys assured a Cook County judge officers who show up to work over the weekend will be able to work and will be paid, but said they could be written up for disciplinary action if they do not comply with the requirement to report their vaccination status by the Friday night deadline.

  After lengthy arguments, the judge granted the city’s request for a temporary injunction barring Catanzara from making any public comments that encourage members of the FOP to defy the city’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate until the next hearing on the city’s lawsuit on Oct. 25. -CBS2

  Meanwhile, as we noted earlier Monday, Chicago has canceled all time-off requests.

  Catanzara said he believes up to half of the entire Chicago police department are ready to not comply with the vaccine mandate, with city officials also bracing for a potential huge loss of personnel, given the latest order that’s gone out across the CPD is the restriction of time off, which typically only happens ahead of July 4th – or other weekends expected to bring surges in violent crime. 

  According to the latest reports:

  Days off are being cancelled and any time-off will require approval from a deputy chief or above, according to a new memo from First Deputy Supt. Eric Carter. The memo is being read at all roll calls for the next five days.

  “Until further notice: The use of elective time off by all sworn CPD members is restricted,” the memo says. 

  Also on Sunday the CPD issued another memo calling for vaccine compliance, but this time expressly stating that the city is prepared to fire or discipline officers found “disobeying a direct order”.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/18/2021 – 19:11

• Gov. Newsom Signs Cultural Marxist Bills
  Gov. Newsom Signs Cultural Marxist Bills

  Op-Ed Authored by John Seiler via The Epoch Times,

  The California Legislature passed 836 bills this year, of which Gov. Gavin Newsom signed 770. That’s 92 percent. He vetoed only 66, or 8 percent. That’s about average for governors in recent years.

  It’s also a reason the legislature ought to return to part-time status, as it was before the 1970s. Texas still maintains a part-time legislature meeting every other year. Its success is shown by how, with the 2020 U.S. Census, it gained two congressional seats as California lost one.

  Although high taxes and regulations are the major reasons businesses and citizens are leaving California, another factor is dealing with the irrationality of the government. The state often just doesn’t make sense. It’s guaranteed to make even less sense in the future.

  That has been a theme of the series of articles I’ve written on the bills this year, of which this will be the fourth and last. The theme of this article is Cultural Marxism.

  One could write a dozen articles a week on the bills and only get part of the way through by the end of the year. Gov. Gavin Newsom was right, although in an ironic way he didn’t intend, when he said on Oct. 9 while signing his last batch of bills, “What we’re doing here in California is unprecedented in both nature and scale.”

  My previous three articles are here, here, and here.

  

  AB 338: Fr. Juniper Serra Statue Replacement

  Assembly Bill 338 is by Assembly Member James C. Ramos (D-Highland). The bill concerns what to do after vandals tore down the statue of Fr. Juniper Serra on the grounds of the state Capitol on July 4, 2020. The bill replaces it with a statue of Native Americans, so that, in the bill’s language, “the devastating impact of the mission period, and Father Serra’s role in that devastation, [will] be recognized and acknowledged.”

  Critics said the action is an affront to the state’s more than 10 million Catholics. Bishop Jaime Soto of Sacramento said that, although the Native Americans suffered during that period, Serra worked “to protect the dignity of native peoples. His holiness as a missionary should not be measured by his own failures to stop the exploitation or even his own personal faults.”

  Los Angeles Archbishop Jose Gomez and San Francisco Archbishop Salvatore Cordileone added in a Wall Street Journal article, “[N]o serious historian has ever made such outrageous claims about Serra or the mission system, the network of 21 communities that Franciscans established along the California coast to evangelize native people.”

  The legislature easily could have both restored the Serra statue and erected a new statue on the Capitol grounds to the Native Americans, adding to the 12 memorials already there. The Serra vandalism also comes after the statue of Christopher Columbus was removed from the Capitol Rotunda in June 2020.

  All this is pure, unadulterated Cultural Marxism. It is shoving history down Orwell’s “Memory Hole” and erecting a false narrative to advance a socialist agenda.

  AB 1084: Gender-Neutral Toy Sections

  Assembly Bill 1084 is by Assembly Member Evan Low (D-Campbell). It requires stores selling toys with more than 500 employees to add “a gender-neutral section or area, to be labeled at the discretion of the retailer, in which a reasonable selection of the items and toys for children that it sells shall be displayed, regardless of whether they have been traditionally marketed for either girls or for boys.”

  Low seems not to have noticed how children tend to wander around stores and find whatever toys they want to cajole their parents into buying.

  The clueless legislator explained, “Part of it is to make sure if you’re a young girl that you can find a police car, fire truck, a periodic table or a dinosaur. And then similarly, if you’re a boy, if you’re more artistic and want to play with glitter, why not? Why should you feel the stigma of saying, ‘Oh, this should be shamed’ and going to a different location?”

  Aside from the Cultural Marxist coercion element, the bill has other problems.

  Notice the vagueness, which could lead to the prosecutions even of the most vigilant retailers: “gender neutral” … “section or area” … “discretion of the retailer” … “reasonable selection” … “regardless of whether.” This is going to be a field day for lawyers.

  AB 1084 will also increase costs by an unknown amount for retailers, for lawyers to figure it out, and for employees to implement it by erecting new areas of the store with new labels. The bill will also scare off parents from such stores, sending even more business online, where such restrictions to not apply. Many jobs will be killed.

  The bill has received national attention and is another reason the state is such a laughingstock.

  AB 101: Cultural Marxist Ethnic Studies

  Assembly Bill 101 is by Assemblymember Jose Medina (D-Riverside). It mandates “the completion of a one-semester course in ethnic studies … including for pupils enrolled in a charter school.”

  In an explanation on his website oddly titled “I am Ethnic Studies!” Medina explained, “AB 101 is necessary to ensure all students develop a foundational and accurate understanding of United States history. We are poised to lead the nation in education equity for all students. And become the first state to require ethnic studies as a high school graduation requirement.”

  Critics signing a joint letter opposing the bill included Parents Defending Education, the AMCHA Initiative (anti-Semitism watchdog), the California Association of Scholars, the National Association of Scholars, the San Diego Asian Americans for Equality, and the Silicon Valley Chinese Association Foundation.

  The letter (pdf) said the imposed curriculum would be “firmly rooted in the highly politicized and controversial version of the discipline known as Critical Ethnic Studies. The discipline is firmly rooted in neo-Marxist ideologies that divide society into oppressed and oppressor groups based primarily on race, and, as part of its disciplinary mission, uses the classroom to indoctrinate students into narrow political beliefs and political activism. Pursuing a narrow political framework in education is divisive, discriminatory and inflammatory.”

  AB 101 also dilutes the value of charter schools, which were created specifically to avoid most of the mandates of the labyrinthine state Education Code. The code already runs to 4,058 pages, according to the March 2021 edition sold on Amazon. The 2022 edition will run many pages longer.

  The bill tosses another problem to local school boards, which already are grappling with critical race theory (CRT), as The Epoch Times has been covering.

  I’ve talked to several young couples with kids about this mandate and CRT. They say it’s yet another impetus to get their kids out of California to a more sensible state.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/18/2021 – 19:10

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• Only 22 Countries Have Never Been Invaded By Britain
  Only 22 Countries Have Never Been Invaded By Britain

  Even though the British Empire only managed to establish its first colony in Ireland in 1556, several decades after Portugal and Spain claimed land on the African continent and the Americas, Statista’s Florian Zandt points out that it still became synonymous with global conflict due to its network of dominions and colonies spanning the whole globe.

  As the first chart from Statista’s new content series InFact shows, although certainly not all of them became its subjects, Britain’s warfaring efforts only spared precious few countries in the world.

  According to the book “All the Countries We’ve Ever Invaded: And the Few We Never Got Round To”, there are only 22 countries Britain never invaded throughout history. There aren’t many gaps on the map, but some of the more notable include Sweden, Belarus and Vatican City.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  The biggest blank spots can be seen on the African continent, even though the Royal African Company founded in 1660 alone was responsible for forcibly removing 212,000 slaves from their homeland and shipping them to English colonies in the Americas between 1662 and 1731.

  The British Empire in its various iterations can be seen as one of the longest-lasting Western empires in the world.

  Its first permanent overseas colony in the Americas was established in 1607 in Jamestown, Virginia, while Hong Kong, its last big overseas territory, was handed over to China in 1997.

  In 1920, the empire covered roughly 13,700,000 square miles or 24 percent of the total land area of the Earth.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/18/2021 – 02:45

• Beijing, Moscow, Ankara Push US Out Of Red Sea Dominance
  Beijing, Moscow, Ankara Push US Out Of Red Sea Dominance

  Authored by Gregory Copley via The Epoch Times,

  Washington’s escalating hybrid warfare operations against Ethiopia may have cost the United States its strategic influence over the globally-vital Red Sea/Suez sea lanes.

  

  The U.S. abandonment of Ethiopia has forced its government to seek allies and protection elsewhere, and Russia, China, and Turkey have rushed in to fill the power vacuum.

  The now-open hostility of the Biden administration toward Ethiopia was rationalized as being supportive of Egypt’s position as the United States’ preferred partner in the region, controlling the Suez Canal. Washington also justifies its hostility on claims—widely discredited by the evidence—of Ethiopian “human rights violations” in its fight against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) marxist insurgency. But it was the TPLF which began the war surging into the neighboring Ethiopian Amhara and Afar regions, causing millions of refugees.

  And despite the U.S. efforts to please Cairo, Beijing and Moscow have also improved their positions with the Egyptian government.

  As a result, the Ethiopian government, which had seen Washington as its preferred partner, was forced to reopen talks with China—which the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali had essentially rejected on taking office in 2018—as well as Russia and Turkey. Turkey had until this point been regarded as a threat to Ethiopia, given that it had been funding Islamist insurgents in Ethiopia in recent years.

  To improve its defense position, the Ethiopian National Defense Force has been acquiring significant numbers of unmanned aerial combat vehicles (UCAVs) from China, Turkey, and Iran, and large amounts of weapons and ammunition from Russia, Belarus, and the United Arab Emirates. Russia has been moving Sukhoi Su-27S combat aircraft into the Ethiopian Air Force.

  The U.S. moves support Egypt’s longstanding rivalry with Ethiopia—a rivalry which has not been reciprocated—out of fear that a strong and united Ethiopia could dominate the lower Red Sea and jeopardize maritime traffic coming into and from Egypt’s Suez Canal. Egypt has also alleged that Ethiopia, the source of the Blue Nile, was restricting Nile water flows to Egypt. This was proven to be a false claim, too, although Egypt does face an increasing water shortage because of its growing population. Cairo, however, needs a scapegoat.

  China and Russia have been able to prove that they have real leverage in the region by resisting U.S. attempts to have the United Nations Security Council authorize military intervention against Ethiopia. The U.S. move was to help the TPLF and the equally violent—avowedly genocidal—Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) to break up Ethiopia.

  Beijing and Moscow gained considerable gratitude in Addis Ababa by using their veto powers in the Security Council to delay or block Washington’s plans. And Beijing already maintains a significant military base in Ethiopia’s neighbor, Djibouti, and built the new Djibouti-Addis Ababa rail link.

  

  Chinese People’s Liberation Army personnel attend the opening ceremony of China’s new military base in Djibouti on Aug. 1, 2017. (STR/AFP via Getty Image)

  In mid-October, Washington escalated plans for economic sanctions against Ethiopia for refusing to allow “U.S. aid” convoys to be routed through the Ethiopian capital to the TPLF. Addis Ababa quickly discovered that the “U.S. aid” convoys were going merely to support the TPLF’s military operations against both the Tigrayan population and other Ethiopians.

  Hundreds of “aid convoys” were reaching the TPLF, but the trucks never returned to the capital; they were diverted to be used by the TPLF to aid its mobile warfare, now well-entrenched in the Amara and Afar regions.

  Far from being embattled, the TPLF has been engaging in large-scale, formal offensive military operations and causing what is genuinely a humanitarian crisis, with massive casualties and an estimated 2 million refugees. The World Heritage city of Lalibela in Amhara Region has been occupied for several months by TPLF forces, who were trained and armed by the United States under the Obama administration.

  Long-serving U.N. officials in Ethiopia have complained that, with the U.S. pressure, new U.N. officials have been shipped into the country and have been promoting the U.S.-TPLF line against the advice of the more experienced U.N. country team. Meanwhile, Ethiopian government forces had, by the second week of October, begun an offensive against the TPLF, utilizing China’s Wing Loong II (CJ-2) MALE (Medium-Altitude, Long-Endurance) UCAVs, which had been shipped in urgently from Chengdu to the Harar Meda Air Base in Ethiopia, not far from the fighting in the Afar and Amhara regions. The CJ-2s can carry 420 kg of ordnance, including precision weapons.

  Ethiopia has also acquired Turkish Bayraktar TB2 UCAVs, as well as Iranian UAVs.

  It does not appear as though the U.S. escalation of political and economic warfare against Ethiopia will abate as long as the Biden administration’s present State Department team is in place. State Department sources admit privately that they are using the same playbook against Ethiopia as they used during the Clinton administration against Serbia in the 1990s. But the United States was then strategically far stronger, and China, Russia, and Turkey were far weaker.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/18/2021 – 02:00

• Will The US Abandon Taiwan?
  Will The US Abandon Taiwan?

  Authored by Brandon Weichert via RealClearWorld.com,

  “Goodbye, great power competition and hello, strategic competition,” this is what the Biden Administration’s Pentagon spokesperson recently told Daniel Lipmann of Politico. According to analysts, these comments signal a shift toward a more cooperative, even conciliatory, American posture toward the Chinese Communist Party. Further, President Joe Biden told the media on October 6 that he had “spoken with [Chinese President Xi Jinping] about Taiwan. We agree that we will abide by the Taiwan Agreement.” 

  

  The agreement that Mr. Biden was referring to was the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, an ambiguous agreement forged between China and the United States in which Taiwan would be treated by the United States as a foreign country without being formally recognized as such. While the 1979 agreement does allow for the provision of American military aid to Taiwan such that Taiwan can “maintain a sufficient self-defense capability,” the terms of this agreement allow for the Americans to shirk away from Taiwan whenever it is convenient for Washington do so.  

  The Biden-Xi call came on the heels of China’s brazen violation of Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) during the week of October 1. At that time, China deployed more than 50 warplanes to violate Taiwan’s ADIZ, testing Taiwan’s overworked air defense network and pushing the island’s military to the point of exasperation. At some point, a grave miscalculation will occur between China and Taiwan—a mistake that could spark another world war that Washington is not prepared or willing to fight.

  In response to the recent Chinese aggression against Taiwan, the United States deployed two aircraft carrier strike groups near Okinawa. These powerful American warships linked up with the British Royal Navy’s carrier strike group. A group of warships from Japan, New Zealand, Canada, and the Netherlands also joined the American led flotilla. 

  The flotilla was meant to deter Beijing from any further acts of aggression during a low point in relations between Beijing and Washington.

  Beijing was likely unimpressed.

  Deterrence only works on an opponent who is willing to abandon the objective you are trying to prevent that opponent from achieving. Frankly, Beijing wants Taiwan more than Washington wants to keep the island away from China. 

  The current situation in China is especially dangerous for Xi Jinping’s continued rule. As China’s economy goes through a massive reorganization that could take down Xi’s regime, the Chinese ruler is looking to distract his people through powerful displays of nationalism, such as reclaiming the “lost” Chinese province of Taiwan. 

  President Biden, meanwhile, is beset by crises everywhere. 

  The American economy teeters on the brink as inflation continues unabated, a government shutdown looms, brittle supply chains cannot keep up with increased demand, Americans eschew returning to work in favor of greater welfare payments, and COVID-19 continues to rampage throughout the United States. To offset these economic threats to Biden’s presidency, the White House will likely try to get a new trade deal crafted with China that will curb inflation and generate trade. 

  What’s more, President Biden is fearful of a manmade global climate catastrophe. Both he and his climate czar, John Kerry, have for years insisted that China is key to curbing anthropogenic climate change. Far from courting war with China, the Biden Administration likely is seeking to reset relations to what they were before Donald Trump’s rise in 2016. 

  No matter what President Biden says, it is unlikely that he will commit US forces to defend Taiwan. According to a 2021 survey conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, only 41 percent of Americans support US military power being used to defend Taiwan. Therefore, it’s not politically expedient for Biden to risk another world war—at least according to the polls—anymore than it was for Biden to keep US forces in Afghanistan.

  Beijing is quickly approaching the time when it is prepared to call Washington’s bluff over Taiwan. Should Biden refuse to act militarily to prevent a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, Beijing would probably offer Biden the useless consolation prize of a hollow climate deal and a new trade deal that empowers China in the long run. The diminution of American power will continue under Biden until there’s nothing left of the American-led world order.

  With America’s only options being world war or capitulation, without an actual leader to rally the American people to stand for what’s right and to chart a new course, what else other than the collapse of American power in the Indo-Pacific can one expect? 

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 10/17/2021 – 23:55

• Rare Breed Triggers Accused Of Creating "Machine Gun" Loses First Court Battle With ATF
  Rare Breed Triggers Accused Of Creating “Machine Gun” Loses First Court Battle With ATF

  Florida company Rare Breed Trigger, LLC manufactures a drop-in trigger that makes an AR-15 semi-automatic rifle cycle rounds faster lost its first court battle with the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF), according to Orlando-based news outlet WFTV. This means the company must halt all sales of its FRT-15 trigger while it waits for trial.

  On July 26, the ATF sent a letter to Rare Breed stating the FRT-15 trigger has been classified as a machine gun under the National Firearms Act, and the company must cease all sales or face fines and jail time. 

  In early August, Lawrence DeMonico, president of Rare Breed, sued the ATF after the agency said the drop-in trigger converted the semi-automatic weapon into a “machinegun,” capable of firing more than one bullet per trigger pull. He said the ATF’s claim is preposterous as the trigger must entirely cycle before the next round is fired. 

  DeMonico and his lawyer filed a request for a preliminary injunction as part of its lawsuit, preventing the ATF from inhibiting the company from selling its triggers ahead of trial. However, the request was denied on Tuesday, citing a lack of evidence that the ATF’s action would financially cripple the company. 

  The FRT-15 trigger sells for $380 on the company’s website, is currently listed as “out of stock.” Court documents show the company must stop making new triggers, and there’s a possibility that triggers in existence might be seized. 

  

  Responding to the new court development is Baltimore-based The Machine Gun Nest who said this is one case every gun owner needs to pay attention to because it could mean the ATF will continue to infringe on gun owners’ rights through executive fiat. 

  Saying that a trigger manufacturer cannot sell the one project they produce does “no harm” is a failure on some level there on the judge’s part. The fact that Rare Breed wasn’t issued a preliminary injunction is ridiculous. Gun owners should pay attention to this case, as the Rare Breed trigger and other similar forced reset triggers will be a convenient scapegoat for the government to continue to push forward on infringing citizens’ 2A rights.

  This is another example of the ATF arbitrarily redefining their definition of what a machine gun is, which was first done with the bump stock in 2018. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 10/17/2021 – 23:30

• China Q3 GDP Growth Disappoints, Inflation Expected To Stay "High For Some Time"
  China Q3 GDP Growth Disappoints, Inflation Expected To Stay “High For Some Time”

  Facing a “complex and severe domestic and overseas environment”, China’s stats bureau spokesperson Fu Linghui admitted that economic indicators all weakened in Q3/September.

  • China 3Q GDP Grows 4.9% Y/Y; Est. 5% – MISS

  • China Sept. Industrial Output Rises 3.1% Y/Y; Est. 3.8% – MISS

  • China Jan.-Sept. Fixed Investment Rises 7.3% Y/Y; Est. 7.8% – MISS

  • China Sept. Retail Sales Rise 4.4% Y/Y; Est. 3.5% – BEAT

  GDP growth was a mere 0.2% in the third quarter from the previous three months.

  Bank of America’s Helen Qiao says on Bloomberg TV that, aside from retail sales, the numbers are all pointing to downside risk — she especially noted the hit from the energy crunch.

  Aside from GDP, all the other Chinese macro indicators continued to slide (except unemployment, which improved to its best since December 2018). It is worth noting that this is the official surveyed rate and doesn’t capture the whole jobs market.

  

  Sales of clothing fell 4.8% and automobiles fell almost 12% while furniture was also soft. Catering services rose only 3.1% YoY, a sign that Chinese are not out dining and wining much.

  Finally, PPI is likely to stay at high levels for some time, statistics spokesperson Fu says, suggesting little will be done in the short-term from a policy-tightening perspective.

  “However, it should also be noted that at present, uncertainties in the international environment are growing, and the domestic economic recovery is still unstable and unbalanced,”

  Chang Shu and Eric Zhu at Bloomberg Economics warn that the economy needs a cushion, stating that greater policy support is needed for the economy to pull through the soft patch. But a quick turnaround is unlikely, given the slowdown is being driven predominantly by supply shocks, and the government is committed to driving long-term structural reforms.

  Fu said the government will “strive to keep the economic operation within a reasonable range and ensure the completion of the main objectives and tasks of economic and social development.”

  Bloomberg’s Enda Curran warns that it’s clear now that the final three months of the year are going to be harder to navigate on so many front. To be clear, China will do what it takes to avoid a hard landing, but it’s still a more complicated picture than what many anticipated when the year began.

  The bottom line is that China’s economy is slowing — and may slow further from here. Supply challenges are clearly hurting the industrial sector even as retail sales hold up better than expected. Where the overall trajectory goes from here will depend on the energy crunch, consumer confidence and how much support the government will tip into the economy.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 10/17/2021 – 23:17

• Weiss: We Got Here Because Of Cowardice, We Get Out With Courage
  Weiss: We Got Here Because Of Cowardice, We Get Out With Courage

  Authored by Bari Weiss via Commentary.org,

  A lot of people want to convince you that you need a Ph.D. or a law degree or dozens of hours of free time to read dense texts about critical theory to understand the woke movement and its worldview. You do not. You simply need to believe your own eyes and ears. 

  

  Let me offer the briefest overview of the core beliefs of the Woke Revolution, which are abundantly clear to anyone willing to look past the hashtags and the jargon.

  It begins by stipulating that the forces of justice and progress are in a war against backwardness and tyranny. And in a war, the normal rules of the game must be suspended. Indeed, this ideology would argue that those rules are not just obstacles to justice, but tools of oppression. They are the master’s tools.  And the master’s tools cannot dismantle the master’s house.

  So the tools themselves are not just replaced but repudiated. And in so doing, persuasion—the purpose of argument—is replaced with public shaming. Moral complexity is replaced with moral certainty. Facts are replaced with feelings.

  Ideas are replaced with identity. Forgiveness is replaced with punishment. Debate is replaced with de-platforming. Diversity is replaced with homogeneity of thought. Inclusion, with exclusion.

  In this ideology, speech is violence. But violence, when carried out by the right people in pursuit of a just cause, is not violence at all. In this ideology, bullying is wrong, unless you are bullying the right people, in which case it’s very, very good. In this ideology, education is not about teaching people how to think, it’s about reeducating them in what to think. In this ideology, the need to feel safe trumps the need to speak truthfully. 

  In this ideology, if you do not tweet the right tweet or share the right slogan, your whole life can be ruined. Just ask Tiffany Riley, a Vermont school principal who was fired—fired—because she said she supports black lives but not the organization Black Lives Matter.

  In this ideology, the past cannot be understood on its own terms, but must be judged through the morals and mores of the present. It is why statues of Grant and Washington are being torn down. And it is why William Peris, a UCLA lecturer and an Air Force veteran, was investigated for reading Martin Luther King’s “Letter from Birmingham Jail” out loud in class.

  In this ideology, intentions don’t matter. That is why Emmanuel Cafferty, a Hispanic utility worker at San Diego Gas and Electric, was fired for making what someone said he thought was a white-supremacist hand gesture—when in fact he was cracking his knuckles out of his car window.

  In this ideology, the equality of opportunity is replaced with equality of outcome as a measure of fairness. If everyone doesn’t finish the race at the same time, the course must have been defective. Thus, the argument to get rid of the SAT. Or the admissions tests for public schools like Stuyvesant in New York or Lowell in San Francisco. 

  In this ideology, you are guilty for the sins of your fathers. In other words: You are not you. You are only a mere avatar of your race or your religion or your class. That is why third-graders in Cupertino, California, were asked to rate themselves in terms of their power and privilege. In third grade. 

  In this system, we are all placed neatly on a spectrum of “privileged” to “oppressed.” We are ranked somewhere on this spectrum in different categories: race, gender, sexual orientation, and class. Then we are given an overall score, based on the sum of these rankings. Having privilege means that your character and your ideas are tainted. This is why, one high-schooler in New York tells me, students in his school are told, “If you are white and male, you are second in line to speak.” This is considered a normal and necessary redistribution of power.

  Racism has been redefined. It is no longer about discrimination based on the color of someone’s skin. Racism is any system that allows for disparate outcomes between racial groups. If disparity is present, as the high priest of this ideology, Ibram X. Kendi, has explained, racism is present. According to this totalizing new view, we are all either racist or anti-racist. To be a Good Person and not a Bad Person, you must be an “anti-racist.” There is no neutrality. There is no such thing as “not racist.” 

  Most important: In this revolution, skeptics of any part of this radical ideology are recast as heretics. Those who do not abide by every single aspect of its creed are tarnished as bigots, subjected to boycotts and their work to political litmus tests. The Enlightenment, as the critic Edward Rothstein has put it, has been replaced by the exorcism. 

  What we call “cancel culture” is really the justice system of this revolution. And the goal of the cancellations is not merely to punish the person being cancelled. The goal is to send a message to everyone else: Step out of line and you are next. 

  It has worked. A recent CATO study found that 62 percent of Americans are afraid to voice their true views. Nearly a quarter of American academics endorse ousting a colleague for having a wrong opinion about hot-button issues such as immigration or gender differences. And nearly 70 percent of students favor reporting professors if the professor says something that students find offensive, according to a Challey Institute for Global Innovation survey.

  Why are so many, especially so many young people, drawn to this ideology? It’s not because they are dumb. Or because they are snowflakes, or whatever Fox talking points would have you believe. All of this has taken place against the backdrop of major changes in American life—the tearing apart of our social fabric; the loss of religion and the decline of civic organizations; the opioid crisis; the collapse of American industries; the rise of big tech; successive financial crises; a toxic public discourse; crushing student debt. An epidemic of loneliness. A crisis of meaning. A pandemic of distrust. It has taken place against the backdrop of the American dream’s decline into what feels like a punchline, the inequalities of our supposedly fair, liberal meritocracy clearly rigged in favor of some people and against others. And so on.

  “I became converted because I was ripe for it and lived in a disintegrating society thrusting for faith.” That was Arthur Koestler writing in 1949 about his love affair with Communism. The same might be said of this new revolutionary faith. And like other religions at their inception, this one has lit on fire the souls of true believers, eager to burn down anything or anyone that stands in its way. 

  If you have ever tried to build something, even something small, you know how hard it is. It takes time. It takes tremendous effort. But tearing things down? That’s quick work. 

  The Woke Revolution has been exceptionally effective. It has successfully captured the most important sense-making institutions of American life: our newspapers. Our magazines. Our Hollywood studios. Our publishing houses. Many of our tech companies. And, increasingly, corporate America. 

  Just as in China under Chairman Mao, the seeds of our own cultural revolution can be traced to the academy, the first of our institutions to be overtaken by it. And our schools—public, private, parochial—are increasingly the recruiting grounds for this ideological army. 

  A few stories are worth recounting:

  David Peterson is an art professor at Skidmore College in upstate New York. He stood accused in the fevered summer of 2020 of “engaging in hateful conduct that threatens Black Skidmore students.”

  What was that hateful conduct? David and his wife, Andrea, went to watch a rally for police officers. “Given the painful events that continue to unfold across this nation, I guess we just felt compelled to see first-hand how all of this was playing out in our own community,” he told the Skidmore student newspaper. David and his wife stayed for 20 minutes on the edge of the event. They held no signs, participated in no chants. They just watched. Then they left for dinner.

  For the crime of listening, David Peterson’s class was boycotted. A sign appeared on his classroom door: “STOP. By entering this class you are crossing a campus-wide picket line and breaking the boycott against Professor David Peterson. This is not a safe environment for marginalized students.” Then the university opened an investigation into accusations of bias in the classroom.

  Across the country from Skidmore, at the University of Southern California, a man named Greg Patton is a professor of business communication. In 2020, Patton was teaching a class on “filler words”—such as “um” and “like” and so forth for his master’s-level course on communication for management. It turns out that the Chinese word for “like” sounds like the n-word. Students wrote the school’s staff and administration accusing their professor of “negligence and disregard.” They added: “We are burdened to fight with our existence in society, in the workplace, and in America. We should not be made to fight for our sense of peace and mental well-being” at school.

  In a normal, reality-based world, there is only one response to such a claim: You misheard. But that was not the response. This was: “It is simply unacceptable for faculty to use words in class that can marginalize, hurt and harm the psychological safety of our students,” the dean, Geoffrey Garrett wrote. “Understandably, this caused great pain and upset among students, and for that I am deeply sorry.” 

  This rot hasn’t been contained to higher education. At a mandatory training earlier this year in the San Diego Unified School District, Bettina Love, an education professor who believes that children learn better from teachers of the same race, accused white teachers of “spirit murdering black and brown children” and urged them to undergo “antiracist therapy for White educators.” 

  San Francisco’s public schools didn’t manage to open their schools during the pandemic, but the board decided to rename 44 schools—including those named for George Washington and John Muir—before suspending the plan. Meantime, one of the board members declared merit “racist” and “Trumpian.” 

  A recent educational program for sixth to eighth grade teachers called “a pathway to equitable math instruction”—funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation—was recently sent to Oregon teachers by the state’s Department of Education. The program’s literature informs teachers that white supremacy shows up in math instruction when “rigor is expressed only in difficulty,” and “contrived word problems are valued over the math in students’ lived experiences.” 

  Serious education is the antidote to such ignorance. Frederick Douglass said, “Education means emancipation. It means light and liberty. It means the uplifting of the soul of man into the glorious light of truth, the light only by which men can be free.” Soaring words that feel as if they are a report from a distant galaxy. Education is increasingly where debate, dissent, and discovery go to die.

  It’s also very bad for kids.  For those deemed “privileged,” it creates a hostile environment where kids are too intimidated to participate. For those deemed “oppressed,” it inculcates an extraordinarily pessimistic view of the world, where students are trained to perceive malice and bigotry in everything they see. They are denied the dignity of equal standards and expectations. They are denied the belief in their own agency and ability to succeed. As Zaid Jilani had put it: “You cannot have power without responsibility. Denying minorities responsibility for their own actions, both good and bad, will only deny us the power we rightly deserve.”

  How did we get here? There are a lot of factors that are relevant to the answer: institutional decay; the tech revolution and the monopolies it created; the arrogance of our elites; poverty; the death of trust. And all of these must be examined, because without them we would have neither the far right nor the cultural revolutionaries now clamoring at America’s gates. 

  But there is one word we should linger on, because every moment of radical victory turned on it. The word is cowardice.

  The revolution has been met with almost no resistance by those who have the title CEO or leader or president or principal in front of their names. The refusal of the adults in the room to speak the truth, their refusal to say no to efforts to undermine the mission of their institutions, their fear of being called a bad name and that fear trumping their responsibility—that is how we got here.

  Allan Bloom had the radicals of the 1960s in mind when he wrote that “a few students discovered that pompous teachers who catechized them about academic freedom could, with a little shove, be made into dancing bears.” Now, a half-century later, those dancing bears hold named chairs at every important elite, sense-making institution in the country. 

  As Douglas Murray has put it: “The problem is not that the sacrificial victim is selected. The problem is that the people who destroy his reputation are permitted to do so by the complicity, silence and slinking away of everybody else.”

  Each surely thought: These protestors have some merit! This institution, this university, this school, hasn’t lived up to all of its principles at all times! We have been racist! We have been sexist! We haven’t always been enlightened! I’ll give a bit and we’ll find a way to compromise. This turned out to be as naive as Robespierre thinking that he could avoid the guillotine. 

  Think about each of the anecdotes I’ve shared here and all the rest you already know. All that had to change for the entire story to turn out differently was for the person in charge, the person tasked with being a steward for the newspaper or the magazine or the college or the school district or the private high school or the kindergarten, to say: No.

  If cowardice is the thing that has allowed for all of this, the force that stops this cultural revolution can also be summed up by one word: courage. And courage often comes from people you would not expect.

  Consider Maud Maron. Maron is a lifelong liberal who has always walked the walk. She was an escort for Planned Parenthood; a law-school research assistant to Kathleen Cleaver, the former Black Panther; and a poll watcher for John Kerry in Pennsylvania during the 2004 presidential election. In 2016, she was a regular contributor to Bernie Sanders’s campaign.

  Maron dedicated her career to Legal Aid: “For me, being a public defender is more than a job,” she told me. “It’s who I am.”

  But things took a turn when, this past year, Maron spoke out passionately and publicly about the illiberalism that has gripped the New York City public schools attended by her four children. 

  “I am very open about what I stand for,” she told me.

  “I am pro-integration. I am pro-diversity. And also I reject the narrative that white parents are to blame for the failures of our school system. I object to the mayor’s proposal to get rid of specialized admissions tests to schools like Stuyvesant. And I believe that racial essentialism is racist and should not be taught in school.”

  What followed this apparent thought crime was a 21st-century witch hunt. Maron was smeared publicly by her colleagues. They called her “racist, and openly so.” They said, “We’re ashamed that she works for the Legal Aid Society.” 

  Most people would have walked away and quietly found a new job. Not Maud Maron. This summer, she filed suit against the organization, claiming that she was forced out of Legal Aid because of her political views and her race, a violation of Title VII of the Civil Rights Act. 

  “The reason they went after me is that I have a different point of view,” she said.

  “These ideologues have tried to ruin my name and my career, and they are going after other good people. Not enough people stand up and say: It is totally wrong to do this to a person. And this is not going to stop unless people stand up to it.”

  That’s courage.

  Courage also looks like Paul Rossi, the math teacher at Grace Church High School in New York who raised questions about this ideology at a mandatory, whites-only student and faculty Zoom meeting. A few days later, all the school’s advisers were required to read a public reprimand of his conduct out loud to every student in the school. Unwilling to disavow his beliefs, Rossi blew the whistle: “I know that by attaching my name to this I’m risking not only my current job but my career as an educator, since most schools, both public and private, are now captive to this backward ideology. But witnessing the harmful impact it has on children, I can’t stay silent.” That’s courage. 

  Courage is Xi Van Fleet, a Virginia mom who endured Mao’s Cultural Revolution as a child and spoke up to the Loudoun County School Board at a public meeting in June. “You are training our children to loathe our country and our history,” she said in front of the school board. “Growing up in Mao’s China, all of this feels very familiar…. The only difference is that they used class instead of race.”

  Gordon Klein, a professor at UCLA, recently filed suit against his own university. Why? A student asked him to grade black students with “greater leniency.” He refused, given that such a racial preference would violate UCLA’s anti-discrimination policies (and maybe even the law). But the people in charge of UCLA’s Anderson School launched a racial-discrimination complaint into him. They denounced him, banned him from campus, appointed a monitor to look at his emails, and suspended him. He eventually was reinstated—because he had done absolutely nothing wrong—but not before his reputation and career were severely damaged. “I don’t want to see anyone else’s life destroyed as they attempted to do to me,” Klein told me. “Few have the intestinal fortitude to fight cancel culture. I do. This is about sending a message to every petty tyrant out there.”

  Courage is Peter Boghossian. He recently resigned his post at Portland State University, writing in a letter to his provost: “The university transformed a bastion of free inquiry into a social justice factory whose only inputs were race, gender and victimhood and whose only output was grievance and division…. I feel morally obligated to make this choice. For ten years, I have taught my students the importance of living by your principles. One of mine is to defend our system of liberal education from those who seek to destroy it. Who would I be if I didn’t?”

  Who would I be if I didn’t?

  George Orwell said that “the further a society drifts from the truth, the more it will hate those that speak it.” In an age of lies, telling the truth is high risk. It comes with a cost. But it is our moral obligation.

  It is our duty to resist the crowd in this age of mob thinking. It is our duty to think freely in an age of conformity. It is our duty to speak truth in an age of lies. 

  This bravery isn’t the last or only step in opposing this revolution—it’s just the first. After that must come honest assessments of why America was vulnerable to start with, and an aggressive commitment to rebuilding the economy and society in ways that once again offer life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness to the greatest number of Americans.

  But let’s start with a little courage.

  Courage means, first off, the unqualified rejection of lies. Do not speak untruths, either about yourself or anyone else, no matter the comfort offered by the mob. And do not genially accept the lies told to you. If possible, be vocal in rejecting claims you know to be false. Courage can be contagious, and your example may serve as a means of transmission.

  When you’re told that traits such as industriousness and punctuality are the legacy of white supremacy, don’t hesitate to reject it. When you’re told that statues of figures such as Abraham Lincoln and Frederick Douglass are offensive, explain that they are national heroes. When you’re told that “nothing has changed” in this country for minorities, don’t dishonor the memory of civil-rights pioneers by agreeing. And when you’re told that America was founded in order to perpetuate slavery, don’t take part in rewriting the country’s history.

  America is imperfect. I always knew it, as we all do—and the past few years have rocked my faith like no others in my lifetime. But America and we Americans are far from irredeemable. 

  The motto of Frederick Douglass’s anti-slavery paper, the North Star—“The Right is of no Sex—Truth is of no Color—God is the Father of us all, and all we are brethren”—must remain all of ours.

  We can still feel the pull of that electric cord Lincoln talked about 163 years ago—the one “in that Declaration that links the hearts of patriotic and liberty-loving men together, that will link those patriotic hearts as long as the love of freedom exists in the minds of men throughout the world.”

  Every day I hear from people who are living in fear in the freest society humankind has ever known. Dissidents in a democracy, practicing doublespeak. That is what is happening right now. What happens five, 10, 20 years from now if we don’t speak up and defend the ideas that have made all of our lives possible?

  Liberty. Equality. Freedom. Dignity. These are ideas worth fighting for.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 10/17/2021 – 23:05

• Washington State Trooper Gives 'Final Sign Off' After Refusing To Take Vaccine; Tells Governor To Kiss His A**
  Washington State Trooper Gives ‘Final Sign Off’ After Refusing To Take Vaccine; Tells Governor To Kiss His A**

  A Washington state trooper released a video of his ‘final sign off’ after more than 22 years on the Yakima County force, after he was forced out of his job for refusing to take the Covid-19 vaccine by Oct. 18.

  

  “This is my final sign-off after 22 years serving the citizens of the state of Washington, I’ve been asked to leave because I am dirty,” said the unnamed officer.

  “Numerous fatalities, injuries, I’ve worked sick, I’ve played sick, buried lots of friends over these years,” he continued. “I’d like to thank you guys, as well as the citizens of Yakima County as well as my fellow officers within the valley. Without you guys I wouldn’t have been very successful.”

  “So State 1034 this is the last time you’ll hear me in a state patrol car… And [governor] Jay Inslee can kiss my ass,” he concluded.

  WASHINGTON STATE TROOPER SIGNS OFF AFTER BEING FIRED FOR NOT TAKING THE JABpic.twitter.com/ELjD2L3T6R

  — The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) October 17, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsIn response, a dispatcher thanked him for his years of service.

  “Thank you for your 22 years and five months of service to the citizens of Washington state,” she said. “You’ve taken on many roles in your time with the patrol. In your first year, you delivered a baby while on patrol. You’ve been a theory instructor and part of the chaplaincy board.”

  “You’ve been a great role model and a mentor for all the young troopers serving in the area by sharing your knowledge and experience throughout the years,” she continued, adding: “Thank you for your service.“

  Governor Jay Inslee issued a sweeping order in August mandating that state government workers must “Show proof of vaccination on or before October 18 or lose your job.”

  According to the Seattle Times, more than 90% of state govt. employees were fully vaccinated as of Saturday.

  Last Monday we noted that up to 40% of Seattle PD may lose their job over the mandate. As of Oct. 6, 292 sworn personnel had yet to provide proof of a COVID-19 vaccination per the report, down from 354 on Tuesday. An additional 111 officers are awaiting the results of exemption requests, meaning the total number of potentially fired Seattle cops is as high as 403.

  That said, the President of the Seattle Police Officers Guild, Mike Solan, said on Friday that officers who choose not to get vaccinated will not be terminated immediately on the Oct. 18 deadline – and will instead be given notice for a “Loudermill hearing” where they will be able to plead their case.

  Meanwhile in Chicago, a Judge issued a temporary restraining order late Friday against the Chicago police union president prohibiting him from making public statements which encourage members not to report their Covid-19 vaccination status to authorities.

  Mayor Lori Lightfoot’s high-stakes standoff with the police union over the city’s vaccine mandate landed in court Friday, with a judge doing what the mayor could not — temporarily silencing Fraternal Order of Police President John Catanzara.

  Circuit Judge Cecilia Horan granted the city’s request for an injunction but only to the extent that Catanzara be precluded — at least until the next hearing Oct. 25 — from making any further YouTube videos or otherwise using social media platforms to encourage his members to defy the city’s mandate to enter their vaccine status on the city’s data portal.

  Catanzara soon took to the union’s YouTube channel where he said the courts were attempting to muzzle him. He said he would comply and urged his members to “do what’s in their hearts and minds.” –Chicago Sun Times

  “Enough is enough…”

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 10/17/2021 – 22:40

• Greenwald: Civil Liberties Are Being Trampled By Exploiting "Insurrection" Fears
  Greenwald: Civil Liberties Are Being Trampled By Exploiting “Insurrection” Fears

  Authored by Glenn Greenwald via greenwald.substack.com,

  When a population is placed in a state of sufficiently grave fear and anger regarding a perceived threat, concerns about the constitutionality, legality and morality of measures adopted in the name of punishing the enemy typically disappear. The first priority, indeed the sole priority, is to crush the threat. Questions about the legality of actions ostensibly undertaken against the guilty parties are brushed aside as trivial annoyances at best, or, worse, castigated as efforts to sympathize with and protect those responsible for the danger. When a population is subsumed with pulsating fear and rage, there is little patience for seemingly abstract quibbles about legality or ethics. The craving for punishment, for vengeance, for protection, is visceral and thus easily drowns out cerebral or rational impediments to satiating those primal impulses.

  

  The aftermath of the 9/11 attack provided a vivid illustration of that dynamic. The consensus view, which formed immediately, was that anything and everything possible should be done to crush the terrorists who — directly or indirectly — were responsible for that traumatic attack. The few dissenters who attempted to raise doubts about the legality or morality of proposed responses were easily dismissed and marginalized, when not ignored entirely. Typically, they were vilified with the accusation that their constitutional and legal objections were frauds: mere pretexts to conceal their sympathy and even support for the terrorists. It took at least a year or two after that attack for there to be any space for questions about the legality, constitutionality, and morality of the U.S. response to 9/11 to be entertained at all.

  For many liberals and Democrats in the U.S., 1/6 is the equivalent of 9/11. One need not speculate about that. Many have said this explicitly. Some prominent Democrats in politics and media have even insisted that 1/6 was worse than 9/11.

  Joe Biden’s speechwriters, when preparing his script for his April address to the Joint Session of Congress, called the three-hour riot “the worst attack on our democracy since the Civil War.” Liberal icon Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY), whose father’s legacy was cemented by years of casting 9/11 as the most barbaric attack ever seen, now serves as Vice Chair of the 1/6 Committee; in that role, she proclaimed that the forces behind 1/6 represent “a threat America has never seen before.” The enabling resolution that created the Select Committee calls 1/6 “one of the darkest days of our democracy.” USA Today’s editor David Mastio published an op-ed whose sole point was a defense of the hysterical thesis from MSNBC analysts that 1/6 is at least as bad as 9/11 if not worse. S.V. Date, the White House correspondent for America’s most nakedly partisan “news” outlet, The Huffington Post, published a series of tweets arguing that 1/6 was worse than 9/11 and that those behind it are more dangerous than Osama bin Laden and Al Qaeda ever were.

  Trump Apology Corps in full apology mode.

  The 9/11 terrorists and Osama bin Laden never threatened the heart of the American experiment.

  The 1/6 terrorists and Donald Trump absolutely did exactly that. Trump continues that effort today. https://t.co/cDcOkXFeio

  — S.V. Dáte (@svdate) May 25, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  And ever since the pro-Trump crowd was dispersed at the Capitol after a few hours of protests and riots, the same repressive climate that arose after 9/11 has prevailed. Mainstream political and media sectors instantly consecrated the narrative, fully endorsed by the U.S. security state, that the United States was attacked on 1/6 by domestic terrorists bent on insurrection and a coup. They also claimed in unison that the ideology driving those right-wing domestic terrorists now poses the single most dangerous threat to the American homeland, a claim which the intelligence community was making even before 1/6 to argue for a new War on Terror (just as neocons wanted to invade and engineer regime change in Iraq prior to 9/11 and then exploited 9/11 to achieve that long-held goal).

  With those extremist and alarming premises fully implanted, there has been little tolerance for questions about whether proposed responses for dealing with the 1/6 “domestic terrorists” and their incomparably dangerous ideology are excessive, illegal, unethical, or unconstitutional. Even before Joe Biden was inaugurated, his senior advisers made clear that one of their top priorities was to enact a bill from Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) — now a member of the Select Committee on 1/6 — to import the first War on Terror onto domestic soil. Even without enactment of a new law, there is no doubt that a second War on Terror, this one domestic, has begun and is growing, all in the name of the 1/6 “Insurrection” and with little dissent or even public debate.

  Following the post-9/11 script, anyone voicing such concerns about responses to 1/6 is reflexively accused of minimizing the gravity of the Capitol riot and, worse, of harboring sympathy for the plotters and their insurrectionary cause. Questions or doubts about the proportionality or legality of government actions in the name of 1/6 are depicted as insincere, proof that those voicing such doubts are acting not in defense of constitutional or legal principles but out of clandestine camaraderie with the right-wing domestic terrorists and their evil cause.

  When it comes to 1/6 and those who were at the Capitol, there is no middle ground. That playbook is not new. “Either you are with us, or you are with the terrorists” was the rigidly binary choice which President George W. Bush presented to Americans and the world when addressing Congress shortly after the 9/11 attack. With that framework in place, anything short of unquestioning support for the Bush/Cheney administration and all of its policies was, by definition, tantamount to providing aid and comfort to the terrorists and their allies. There was no middle ground, no third option, no such thing as ambivalence or reluctance: all of that uncertainty or doubt, insisted the new war president, was to be understood as standing with the terrorists.

  The coercive and dissent-squashing power of that binary equation has proven irresistible ever since, spanning myriad political positions and cultural issues. Dr. Ibram X. Kendi’s insistence that one either fully embrace what he regards as the program of “anti-racism” or be guilty by definition of supporting racism — that there is no middle ground, no space for neutrality, no room for ambivalence about any of the dogmatic planks — perfectly tracks this manipulative formula. As Dr. Kendi described the binary he seeks to impose: “what I’m trying to do with my work is to really get Americans to eliminate the concept of ‘not racist’ from their vocabulary, and realize we’re either being racist or anti-racist.” Eight months after the 1/6 riot — despite the fact that the only people who died that day were Trump supporters and not anyone they killed — that same binary framework shapes our discourse, with a clear message delivered by those purporting to crush an insurrection and confront domestic terrorism. You’re either with us, or with the 1/6 terrorists.

  What makes this ongoing prohibition of dissent or even doubt so remarkable is that so many of the responses to 1/6 are precisely the legal and judicial policies that liberals have spent decades denouncing. Indeed, many of the defining post-1/6 policies are identical to those now retrospectively viewed as abusive and excessive, if not unconstitutional, when invoked as part of the first War on Terror. We are thus confronted with the surreal dynamic that policies long castigated in American liberalism — whether used generally in the criminal justice system or specifically in the name of avenging 9/11 and defeating Islamic extremism — are now off-limits from scrutiny or critique when employed in the name of avenging 1/6 and crushing the dangerous domestic ideology that fostered it.

  Almost immediately after the Capitol riot, some of the most influential Democratic lawmakers — Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and House Homeland Security Committee Chair Bennie Thompson (D-MS), who also now chairs the Select 1/6 Committee — demanded that any participants in the protest be placed on the no-fly list, long regarded as one of the most extreme civil liberties assaults from the first War on Terror. And at least some of the 1/6 protesters have been placed on that list: American citizens, convicted of no crime, prohibited from boarding commercial airplanes based on a vague and unproven assessment, from unseen and unaccountable security state bureaucrats, that they are too dangerous to fly. I reported extensively on the horrors and abuses of the no-fly list as part of the first War on Terror and do not recall a single liberal speaking in defense of that tactic. Yet now that this same brute instrument is being used against Trump supporters, there has not, to my knowledge, been a single prominent liberal raising objections to the resurrection of the no-fly list for American citizens who have been convicted of no crime.

  

  With more than 600 people now charged in connection with the events of 1/6, not one person has been charged with conspiracy to overthrow the government, incite insurrection, conspiracy to commit murder or kidnapping of public officials, or any of the other fantastical claims that rained down on them from media narratives. No one has been charged with treason or sedition. Perhaps that is because, as Reuters reported in August, “the FBI has found scant evidence that the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol was the result of an organized plot to overturn the presidential election result.” Yet these defendants are being treated as if they were guilty of these grave crimes of which nobody has been formally accused, with the exact type of prosecutorial and judicial overreach that criminal defense lawyers and justice reform advocates have long railed against.

  Dozens of the 1/6 defendants have been denied bail, thus being imprisoned for months without having been found guilty of anything. Many are being held in unusually harsh and bizarrely cruel conditions, causing a federal judge on Wednesday to hold “the warden of the D.C. jail and director of the D.C. Department of Corrections in contempt of court,” and then calling on the Justice Department “to investigate whether the jail is violating the civil rights of dozens of detained Jan. 6 defendants.” Some of the pre-trial prison protocols have been so punitive that even Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) — who calls the 1/6 protesters “domestic terrorists” — denounced their treatment as abusive: “Solitary confinement is a form of punishment that is cruel and psychologically damaging,” Warren said, adding: “And we’re talking about people who haven’t been convicted of anything yet.” Warren also said she is “worried that law enforcement officials are deploying it to ‘punish’ the Jan. 6 defendants or to ‘break them so that they will cooperate.”

  The few 1/6 defendants who have thus far been sentenced after pleading guilty have been subjected to exceptionally punitive sentences, the kind liberal criminal justice reform advocates have been rightly denouncing for years. Several convicted of nothing more than trivial misdemeanors are being sentenced to real prison time; last week, Michigan’s Robert Reeder pled guilty to “one count of parading, demonstrating or picketing in a Capitol building” yet received a jail term of 3 months, with the judge admitting that the motive was to “send a signal to the other participants in that riot… that they can expect to receive jail time.”

  Meanwhile, long-controversial SWAT teams are being routinely deployed to arrest 1/6 suspects in their homes, and long-time liberal activists denouncing these tactics have suddenly decided they are appropriate for these Trump supporters. That prosecutors are notoriously overzealous in their demands for harsh prison time is a staple of liberal discourse, but now, an Obama-appointed judge has repeatedly doled out sentences to 1/6 defendants that are harsher and longer than those requested by DOJ prosecutors, to the applause of liberals. In sum, these defendants are subjected to one of the grossest violations of due process: they are being treated as if they are guilty of crimes — treason, sedition, insurrection, attempted murder, and kidnapping — which not even the DOJ has accused them of committing. And the fundamental precept of any healthy justice system — namely, punishment for citizens is merited only once they have been found guilty of crimes in a court of law — has been completely discarded.

  Serious questions about FBI involvement in the 1/6 events linger. For months, Americans were subjected to a frightening media narrative that far-right groups had plotted to kidnap Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, only for proof to emerge that at least half of the conspirators, including its leaders, were working for or at the behest of the FBI. Regarding 1/6, the evidence has been clear for months, though largely confined to right-wing outlets, that the FBI had its tentacles in the three groups it claims were most responsible for the 1/6 protest: the Proud Boys, Oath Keepers, and the Three Percenters. Yet last month, The New York Times acknowledged that the FBI was directly communicating with one of its informants present at the Capitol, a member of the Proud Boys, while the riot unfolded, meaning “federal law enforcement had a far greater visibility into the assault on the Capitol, even as it was taking place, than was previously known.” All of this suggests that to the extent 1/6 had any advanced centralized planning, it was far closer to an FBI-induced plot than a centrally organized right-wing insurrection.

  Despite this mountain of abuses, it is exceedingly rare to find anyone outside of conservative media and MAGA politics raising objections to any of this (which is what made Sen. Warren’s denunciation of their pre-trial prison conditions so notable). The reason is obvious: just as was true in the aftermath of 9/11, people are petrified to express any dissent or even question what is being done to the alleged domestic terrorists for fear of standing accused of sympathizing with them and their ideology, an accusation that can be career-ending for many.

  Many of the 1/6 defendants are impoverished and cannot afford lawyers, yet private-sector law firms who have active pro bono programs will not touch anyone or anything having to do with 1/6, while the ACLU is now little more than an arm of the Democratic Party and thus displays almost no interest in these systemic civil liberties assaults. And for many liberals — the ones who are barely able to contain their glee at watching people lose their jobs in the middle of a pandemic due to vaccine-hesitancy or who do not hide their joy that the unarmed Ashli Babbitt got what she deserved — their political adversaries these days are not just political adversaries but criminals and even terrorists, rendering no punishment too harsh or severe. For them, cruelty is not just acceptable; the cruelty is the point.

  ---

  The Unconstitutionality of the 1/6 Committee

  Civil liberties abuses of this type are common when the U.S. security state scares enough people into believing that the threat they face is so acute that normal constitutional safeguards must be disregarded. What is most definitely not common, and is arguably the greatest 1/6-related civil liberties abuse of them all, is the House of Representatives Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol.

  To say that the investigative acts of the 1/6 Committee are radical is a wild understatement. Along with serving subpoenas on four former Trump officials, they have also served subpoenas on eleven private citizens: people selected for interrogation precisely because they exercised their Constitutional right of free assembly by applying for and receiving a permit to hold a protest on January 6 opposing certification of the 2020 election.

  When the Select 1/6 Committee recently boasted of these subpoenas in its press release, it made clear what methodology it used for selecting who it was targeting: “The committee used permit paperwork for the Jan. 6 rally to identify other individuals involved in organizing.” In other words, any citizen whose name appeared on permit applications to protest was targeted for that reason alone. The committee’s stated goal is “to collect information from them and their associated entities on the planning, organization, and funding of those events”: to haul citizens before Congress to interrogate them on their constitutionally protected right to assemble and protest and probe their political beliefs and associations:

  

  

  Even worse are the so-called “preservation notices” which the committee secretly issued to dozens if not hundreds of telecoms, email and cell phone providers, and other social media platforms (including Twitter and Parler), ordering those companies to retain extremely invasive data regarding the communications and physical activities of more than 100 citizens, with the obvious intent to allow the committee to subpoena those documents. The communications and physical movement data sought by the committee begins in April, 2020 — nine months before the 1/6 riot. The committee refuses to make public the list of individuals it is targeting with these sweeping third-party subpoenas, but on the list are what CNN calls “many members of Congress,” along with dozens of private citizens involved in obtaining the permit to protest and then promoting and planning the gathering on social media.

  What makes these secret notices especially pernicious is that the committee requested that these companies not notify their customers that the committee has demanded the preservation of their data. The committee knows it lacks the power to impose a “gag order” on these companies to prevent them from notifying their users that they received the precursor to a subpoena: a power the FBI in conjunction with courts does have. So they are relying instead on “voluntary compliance” with the gag order request, accompanied by the thuggish threat that any companies refusing to voluntarily comply risk the public relations harm of appearing to be obstructing the committee’s investigation and, worse, protecting the 1/6 “insurrectionists.”

  Worse still, the committee in its preservation notices to these communications companies requested that “you do not disable, suspend, lock, cancel, or interrupt service to these subscribers or accounts solely due to this request,” and that they should first contact the committee “if you are not able or willing to respond to this request without alerting the subscribers.” The motive here is obvious: if any of these companies risk the PR hit by refusing to conceal from their customers the fact that Congress is seeking to obtain their private data, they are instructed to contact the committee instead, so that the committee can withdraw the request. That way, none of the customers will ever be aware that the committee targeted their private data and will thus never be able to challenge the legality of the committee’s acts in a court of law.

  In other words, even the committee knows that its power to seek this information about private citizens lacks any convincing legal justification and, for that reason, wants to ensure that nobody has the ability to seek a judicial ruling on the legality of their actions. All of these behaviors raise serious civil liberties concerns, so much so that even left-liberal legal scholars and at least one civil liberties group (obviously not the ACLU) — petrified until now of creating any appearance that they are defending 1/6 protesters by objecting to civil liberties abuses — have begun very delicately to raise doubts and concerns about the committee’s actions.

  But the most serious constitutional problem is not the specific investigative acts of the committee but the very existence of the committee itself. There is ample reason to doubt the constitutionality of this committee’s existence.

  When crimes are committed in the United States, there are two branches of government — and only two — vested by the Constitution with the power to investigate criminal suspects and adjudicate guilt: the executive branch (through the FBI and DOJ) and the judiciary. Congress has no role to play in any of that, and for good and important reasons. The Constitution places limits on what the executive branch and judiciary can do when investigating suspects . . . . .

  The full article is available to subscribers only. To read the rest of the article, please subscribe at the button below and the full article will then be fully accessible here

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 10/17/2021 – 22:15

• 'Coffee Cup Gestapo': The Latest Covid Crackdown Viral Video Out Of Australia
  ‘Coffee Cup Gestapo’: The Latest Covid Crackdown Viral Video Out Of Australia

  Examples of Covid policy crackdowns out of Australia have only grown more and more absurd as viral videos continue to hit the web on a weekly basis showing the insane and Orwellian lengths police and government authorities are willing to go supposedly in the name of keeping people “safe”.

  The latest encounter of an Aussie citizen with police in Melbourne shows officers actually briefly inspecting a man’s beverage, apparently to ensure that his pulling down his mask in order to consume coffee was “justified”. It should also be noted that this took place outside in the fresh air of a public park…

  Melbourne Police grabs a guy’s coffee cup to check if there is coffee in it otherwise, he would of fined him for not wearing a mask 👀

  Coffee is known to kill COVID 🙃☕️ pic.twitter.com/7wUB1lBXDF

  — DIOGO THE FIVE8 (@Diogothefive8) October 16, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The short clip, which since being posted online has been reported on in multiple international media outlets, shows a masked-up and glove-wearing officer grabbing the man’s coffee cup, while saying, “Do you mind if I check if there’s actually anything in that?” 

  After giving it a shake, the officer gives it back to the man and says, “Enjoy your coffee” – apparently satisfied at finding liquid in it.

  Some news reports mocked the scene as a “North Korea-style” encounter and others dubbed the officers as part of the “Coffee cup Gestapo”.   

  The clip of the encounter has racked up millions of views across various social media platforms this weekend.

  Two years ago if anybody had said, in the future groups of Police Officers will be checking to see whether you are carrying an empty coffee cup to avoid wearing a mask that will not protect you against a virus that will not harm the healthy we would have laughed in their face.

  — onlywayisup (@mark1854now) October 16, 2021

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  The Daily Mail captured some of the outraged social media commentary in response to the incident as follows:

  ‘They were all standing around like a council worker leaning on his shovel, waiting for smoko,’ posted another. ‘Innocent passer-by suffered the brunt of their bored frustration. Poor grunt, no heads to bash, they were made to look stupid.’

  And some are noting the irony in applying the same obsessive social distancing standards to the police, who themselves ended up being the potential ‘contaminators’ by grabbing the man’s coffee in the first place:

  Others were concerned the police officer – who was wearing gloves – could have potentially contaminated the cup by touching it before returning it.

  ‘Why wasn’t the officer forced to change his gloves to touch another person’s property? He could easily spread Covid,’ said one. 

  ‘If that police officer unknowingly had Covid he would absolutely spread it. It is completely irresponsible (and against all infection control) to behave that way.’ 

  But ultimately it appears to be “all about control” – as many commentators have pointed out of late, also following multiple recent videos showing Australian police going door to door to confront residents over their social media posts expressing pushback against the government’s blatantly authoritarian laws and regulations forced on the population during the pandemic.

  Australia has fallen. pic.twitter.com/iQnlCokZT6

  — Avi Yemini 🇦🇺🇮🇱 (@OzraeliAvi) October 10, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  No doubt there’s more to come, with the daily and weekly examples getting more and more absurd and outlandish.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 10/17/2021 – 21:50

• Jussie Smollett Forced To Face Trial After Judge Denies Dismissal Request
  Jussie Smollett Forced To Face Trial After Judge Denies Dismissal Request

  Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

  Jussie Smollett’s criminal trial will move forward after a judge on Friday struck down the actor’s effort to dismiss the criminal case.

  

  Smollett in early 2019 made headlines after he told police officers that he was attacked by two white men who shouted epithets at him. However, several weeks later, Smollett, who is black, was charged with one felony count of lying to authorities after officers uncovered evidence that suggested that the incident was staged.

  After initial charges against him were dropped by Cook County State Attorney Kim Foxx’s office, a special prosecutor was appointed and charged him with felony counts of disorderly conduct for allegedly filing false police reports about what happened. The actor has denied the allegations and has pleaded not guilty.

  Foxx, who had received funding from wealthy left-wing financier George Soros for her reelection campaign, came under criticism for her handling of the case. The special prosecutor concluded she and her office did nothing criminal but did abuse their discretion and made false statements about the case.

  On Oct. 15, Judge James Linn said that Smollett’s case now is being handled by a special prosecutor and stated he won’t interfere, according to reporters. Smollett’s trial is set for Nov. 29.

  One of the actor’s lawyers, Nenye Uche, said that Smollett had been offered a non-prosecution deal by prosecutors who had previously served in Cook County. Uche argued that Smollett had given up a $10,000 bond and performed community service under the deal.

  Smollett being “hauled back into court again” is a violation of his due process rights, Uche argued in court, USA Today reported.

  “It’s as clear as day—this case should be dismissed because of an immunity agreement,” Uche said. “A deal is a deal. That’s ancient principle.”

  But Sean Wieber, an attorney with the special prosecutor’s office, said Uche’s claim should be dismissed.

  “We have already dealt with this before,” he said, according to the report.

  “Nothing we’ve heard today changes one iota [of the case]. This can be comfortably denied.”

  Amid widespread speculation that Smollett partook in a hoax to advance his career, the actor was later written out of “Empire,” which subsequently went off the air. Smollett is also fighting a civil lawsuit from the city of Chicago, which claims the actor owes the city tens of thousands of dollars to cover police costs during the investigation.

  Earlier this month, it was announced the jury selection phase of Smollett’s trial would start in early November.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 10/17/2021 – 21:25

• Malone, Kirsch, & Wuhan Whistleblower Hit Maui To Promote Rational Debate On All Things Covid
  Malone, Kirsch, & Wuhan Whistleblower Hit Maui To Promote Rational Debate On All Things Covid

  As protests against Covid-19 mandates rage in major cities around the world, a group of US-based truth seekers took to Maui over the weekend to headline the ‘Free Maui Unity March & Rally’ – where they promoted the free exchange of information abuot the virus, untainted by government narratives, and an evidence-based approach to the pandemic so that people can make informed medical decisions without fear of retribution.

  Informed Consent. pic.twitter.com/khuA1cmvnC

  — Robert W Malone, MD (@RWMaloneMD) October 17, 2021

  

  Among the attendees were Dr. Robert Malone, Steve Kirsch, Frontline Doctors Ryan Cole and Richard Urso, and a guest appearance by Whistleblower Dr. Li-Meng Yan – a Chinese virologist who worked in a WHO reference lab in Hong Kong and has published evidence that Covid-19 was created in a lab.

  

  Former Blackrock portfolio manager Ed Dowd attended a post-rally private dinner with the speakers, and told Zero Hedge that topics discussed included the “coordinated effort to prevent early treatment of Covid with pre-existing available drugs,” and that currently available vaccines are “experimental, don’t provide immunity or prevent transmission and have more risk than benefit.“

  “We can’t even begin to know the long term effects of the vaccines – one of many concerns to the doctors on the panel. Usually a vaccine requires 7-10 years of data before it can be approved,” Dowd added, citing Dr. Ryan Cole of America’s Frontline Doctors.

  On Saturday, hundreds – if not thousands of Hawaiians turned out for a march opposing pandemic restrictions and vaccine mandates, eventually ending up at the War Memorial Stadium to hear the featured speakers.

  pic.twitter.com/e5hMFkpZpG

  — Ed ☯️ The Obsolete Man…a Free Thinker (@DowdEdward) October 16, 2021

  One of the speakers, Steve Kirsch – a tech mogul who made hundreds of millions in Silicon valley, and started the Covid-19 Early Treatment Fund (CETF) – spoke at length about vaccine safety, and has compiled several arguments against the Covid-19 vaccine in a lengthy PDF. Kirsch challenges anyone to refute his data. Instead, he was pushed out of his most recent position as CEO of a tech startup, and treated to a Daily Beast hit-piece.

  Trained as an engineer, Kirsch maintains that the vaccine is ineffective, more dangerous than the virus itself, and that the medical field is under constant threat to stick to official narratives or face smear campaigns. Within minutes of Dowd uploading his Saturday speech, YouTube deleted it – forcing him to upload it to free speech platform Rumble instead.

  The headliners gathered for a second dinner Saturday evening, at which Kirsch said that despite losing vast wealth and opportunities in his mission to educate people “if my data about these vaccines can save just one life it’s worth it to me.”

  At last night’s panel every member was asked why the are doing this. Steve Kirsch who lost his company said “if my data about these vaccines can save just one life it’s worth it to me”. It struck me…they are all Schindler. pic.twitter.com/KFXyDqKo97

  — Ed ☯️ The Obsolete Man…a Free Thinker (@DowdEdward) October 17, 2021

  Dr. Robert Malone – a pivotal figure in the development of mRNA vaccine technology and staunch advocate for medical freedom, proposed what he calls the “Maui plan,” which contains three elements:

  1. Early treatment options
  2. The right for doctors to practice medicine how they see fit without fear of retribution (“The media is not trained to practice medicine. The politicians are not trained to practice medicine”).
  3. “Don’t vaccinate our children.”

  “The risk to kids from this pandemic are about zero,” said Malone. “Pretty darn close. In something like 400 deaths in children since the beginning as identified by the CDC, every single one of those is in children that had major preexisting medical conditions.”

  

  “Let’s stop the fear being put on our children. The fear is what’s damaging our children, it’s not the virus,” said Malone (who has yet to be un-personed by YouTube), adding “If there are superspreaders, it’s probably the vaccinated adults who are having less symptoms, going to the grocery store, going into the schools, going into the hospitals, going into state government – whether they’re vaxxed or not, the vaccines are not protecting them against Delta.”

  No Fear. pic.twitter.com/RMPoHYfO2Q

  — Robert W Malone, MD (@RWMaloneMD) October 17, 2021

  For an in-depth look at what Kirsch and Malone

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 10/17/2021 – 21:00

• Why Goldman Expects A Huge Market Melt-up In The Coming Weeks
  Why Goldman Expects A Huge Market Melt-up In The Coming Weeks

  Below we excerpt from the latest Goldman”Tactical Flow-of-funds: October 2H” report by flow trader Scott Rubner who writes that he is “on FOMO Watch” and lays out the argument for a major market breakout in the coming weeks.

  October 1H (S&P is +3.03% MTD ) = “We made it through the October __________ scare.” Word bank: Stagflation, China Property, Covid, Tapering, Supply Chain, Energy, Hiking, China, Growth, Higher rates, etc, etc.

  Talking Points: (Positioning and Sentiment is UN-STRECHED), really un-stretched.

  1. Un-emotional systematic CTA and VC equity re-leveraging given the decline in volatility: Sold -$96B of Equity over the last 1 month.

  2. Un-emotional systematic, now covering shorts in fixed income (read positive NDX, which means positive SPX): Sold -$540B of FI over the last 1 month.

  3. Discretionary shorting into expiry covering, GS PB.

  4. Corporate buyback dry powder is the largest incremental buyer in the market.

  5. 401k quarterly equity inflows have not slowed

  6. Generation I – (Generation Investor), the retail trader hugely pivoted back into secular growth.

  7. Mutual Fund year end is 10/29 – can’t report cash on the year-end statements?

  8. 2022 seems very difficult! There is a growing interest to try and catch-up to benchmark gains here in Q4.

  9. Bond inflows have now slowed to zero and credit logged their first outflows. $ looking for a home?

  This is the biggest flow dynamic to know for November, and this kicks off aggressively following back earnings.

  1. US corporates authorized +$884B YTD as of October 8th. This is YTD authorization record and exceeds the tax reform Euphoria of 2018. The Goldman buyback desk estimates FY authorizations will be $965B.

  2. The GS buyback desk forecasts $887B worth of buyback executions for 2021. This would be the second highest year on record (after 2018).

  3. The breakdown of executions per quarter is as follows: Q1 – $203B (actual), Q2 – $234B (actual), Q3 – $220B forecast, Q4 – $230B forecast.

  4. In Q4, the GS buyback desk estimates +$230B repurchases, this is broken down by +$70B in October during the blackout window using 10b5-1 plans and +$160B in November and December.

  

  

  According to GS Research, November is the #1 month for buyback executions, November plus December is the best two month period of the year for executions.

  5. 11/1 is the defacto start to the buyback window (65% of corporates are in the open window)

  6. 11/8 is the GS official start to the buyback window (90% of corporates are in the open window).

  7. There are 42.5 trading days in November and December including major vacation weeks and low liquidity.

  8. The $160B of repurchases in the last two months of the year is ~$3.80B per day, every day. This is significantly front loaded into November (and should pace above >$4B).

  

  It’s not just buybacks… Equity Inflows – this has been the biggest market dynamic of 2021.

  9.There have been +$774.50B global equity inflows YTD, the best year on record by a mile, in the 190 trading days ending on October 6th. This will be roughly $1 Trillion worth of inflows for 2021.

  10. This is approximately +$4.10B worth of [retail] demand every single day of 2021.

  11. My assumption is that these inflows will not slow (actually increase coming out of bonds), but lets say, same pace.

  12. This is $8B worth of equity demand from corporates and retail, all else equal for the 42.50 trading days to close out the year. This before what I am typing below.

  13. Bond inflows went to zero this week and logged credit outflows (Investment Grade, High Yield, and EM Debt) – looking for a home?

  

  

  

  Melt-up checkdown: This is why I think there is risk now to the upside in November (this may get pre-traded in late October) 14.

  Exposure is not high: GS HF PB Gross 177% (28th percentile 1-yr) and Net 62% (23rd percentile 1-yr)

  On Wednesday (waiting on Thursday) – US equities on the GS Prime book saw the largest 1-day net buying since late August (+1.1 SDs vs. the average daily net flow of the past year), driven by short covers and to a lesser extent long buys (2 to 1).

  Both Macro Products (driven by short covers) and Single Names (driven by long buys) were net bought and made up 74% and 26% of Thursday’s $ buying activity, respectively.

  Sentiment = ZZZZs.

  

  15. Gamma is not long: Current SPX long gamma = $1B vs. A high last week of $7.7B long. This is the 3rd lowest long of the year and a decline of $7B w/w. This has allowed the market move more freely and we really haven’t seen this little long position in the past year. I think dealers go short (finally) after today’s expiry.

  

  16. OpEx (Option expiry): $2.2 Trillion worth of option notional rolls off Friday and “everyone is looking for weakness into expiry trade.” After today’s expiry, I expect the market to move more freely, especially to the upside.

  

  17. Current CTA positioning in Fixed Income: why do you care? This is an index construction issue. When CTAs short bonds (value > growth)…. when they cover, the whole index can move higher? My most important chart this week.

  

  18. Performance has largely been difficult and 2022 is expected to be difficult. A big bulk of Mutual Fund year-end is at the end of October. Buy stocks w/ cash on sidelines?

  

  19. Systematic releveraging becomes the focus following the FLIP: Systematic equity strategies have sold $96B worth of equities over the past 1 month.

  We have systematic strategies buying $44.8 Billion over the next month and $106.5 Billion if the market is up modestly, which is trending. This would roughly be a $200B swing, this is large.

  

  20. And then, there are seasonals which start to really kick in at the end of the month. You are here w/ the buyback window.

  

  • I. Since 2020, there has been +$2.281 Trillion inflows into bonds and cash vs. +$578 Billion inflows into equities. 4x more inflows into Cash and Bonds.
  • II. Since 2016, there has been +$4.609 Trillion inflows into bonds and cash vs. +$427 Billion inflows into equities. 11x more inflows into Cash and Bonds.
  • III. Since 2011, there has been +$5.205 Trillion inflows into bonds and cash vs. +$748 Billion inflows into equities. 7x more inflows into Cash and Bonds.

  I promised myself that I would never use the term “Great Rotation” again, that is the rotation out of bonds into equities, however this movement of capital is the most important dynamic that I am tracking right now. Global Bond funds saw the SMALLEST INFLOWS since Q1 this week. What level higher in bond yields stop this inflow all together (or possibly move to outflows?). Global equities logged another +$13B worth of inflows on the week. No change in tone.

  • IV. There is a competition for dip alpha. Why did everyone want the -5% pullpack? Here is the data.

  This recent stretch was the 8th longest streak without a -5% dip since 1930, lasting 226 trading days. There have been 34, five percent pullbacks since 1980, 1m, 3m, 6m returns have had positive hit rates of 74%, 82%, and 85% respectively

  • V. Retail aggressively defended large cap tech and secular growth this week.
  • VI. October Checklist continued below. (Index gamma smallest long of the year, sentiment ticks lower (again), shorts tick higher, systematic to re-lever above 4400, seasonals remain strong, and Q4 performance catch up vs. benchmarks).

  Who was the largest incremental buyer in the equity market this week?

  Retail traders made a huge pivot this week and have been buying the dip in large cap tech and secular growth.

  a. US single stock equities with the largest percentage of total volume traded by retail on Thursday October 8th, 2021.

  

  b. US single stock equities with the largest retail net absolute buy skew on Thursday October 8th, 2021.

  

  c. US single stock equities with the largest retail net absolute sell skew on Thursday October 8th, 2021.

  

  e. US single stock equities with the largest percentage of total volume traded by retail on Wednesday October 6th, 2021.

  

  f. US single stock equities with the largest retail net absolute buy skew on Wednesday October 6th, 2021.

  

  g. US single stock equities with the largest retail net absolute sell skew on Wednesday October 6th, 2021.

  

  h. US single stock equities with the largest percentage of total volume traded by retail on Tuesday October 5th, 2021.

  

  i. US single stock equities with the largest retail net absolute buy skew on Tuesday October 5th, 2021.

  

  j. US single stock equities with the largest retail net absolute sell skew on Tuesday October 5th, 2021.

  

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 10/17/2021 – 20:35

• 40% Of California State Workers Are Unvaccinated Despite Newsom's Order 
  40% Of California State Workers Are Unvaccinated Despite Newsom’s Order 

  This might come as a surprise, but 40% of California state employees are unvaccinated despite Gov. Gavin Newsom’s directive to mandate the jab or be subjected to regular testing. 

  Newsom issued this new directive in July following a surge in COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. At the time, he said, “We are now dealing with a pandemic of the unvaccinated, and it’s going to take renewed efforts to protect Californians from the dangerous Delta variant.” 

  Still months later, less than two-thirds of state workers, or 62%, were vaccinated, according to The Sacramento Bee. The figure is much lower than the state’s overall rate of 72%. 

  Human Resources Department spokeswoman Camille Travis said her agency has only compiled 89% of state employee vaccination status. She said the data so far suggests some state employees weren’t compelled to get jabbed after Newsom’s directive.  

  Some of the state’s largest departments shared vaccination rates: 52% of California Highway Patrol employees, 60% of Department of Motor Vehicles employees, and 60% of prison employees have received the shots. California Department of Transportation has the highest with 70%.

  Newsom’s mandatory jab, or be forced to regular testing for state employees, is less stringent than those of health care workers who have been forced to get the vaccine unless they had a medical exemption or religious claim. One emerging drawback of mandatory jabs, with no consideration for regular testing nor naturally-acquired immunity, are reports that a third of all hospitals in the state are experiencing critical staffing shortages because engineers, janitorial staff, respiratory therapists, nurses, midwives, physical therapists, and technicians have either staged strikes or have left the job over the mandate.

  

  Director of Medical Ethics, Dr. Aaron Kheriaty of the University of California, Irvine, challenged the constitutionality of the hospital’s vaccine mandate regarding individuals who have recovered from COVID and have naturally acquired immunity and was immediately placed on leave. There’s no room to debate science as only the government can decide what’s best for state employees.

  The same sort of stringent vaccination rules for healthcare workers could be coming to the Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation, the state’s largest department, with approximately 66,000 employees and a vaccination rate of 60%.

  Overreaching government mandating jabs has unintended consequences such as workers striking or leaving their posts altogether, exacerbating already critical labor shortages in essential services. 

  Perhaps of even more note is the fact no lesser liberal mouthpiece than The New York Times is finally willing to admit that it’s not just KKK-Hat-wearing ‘Trumpers’ that are the great unwashed deplorables refusing to get vaccinated.

  In New York, for example, only 42 percent of African Americans of all ages (and 49 percent among adults) are fully vaccinated – the lowest rate among all demographic groups tracked by the city.

  This is another area in which the dominant image of the white, QAnon-spouting, Tucker Carlson-watching conspiracist anti-vaxxer dying to own the libs is so damaging.

  It can lead us to ignore the problem of racialized health inequities with deep historic roots but also ongoing repercussions, and prevent us from understanding that there are different kinds of vaccine hesitancy, which require different approaches.

  Just ask Nicki Minaj.

  … the Covid States Project’s research showed that unvaccinated people who nonetheless wore masks were, indeed, more likely to be Black women.

  Did you ever think you would read those ‘facts’ from that ‘news’ outlet?

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 10/17/2021 – 20:10

• Dozens Of Climate Activists Arrested After Storming Interior Department, Police Sustain "Multiple Injuries"
  Dozens Of Climate Activists Arrested After Storming Interior Department, Police Sustain “Multiple Injuries”

  By Tammy Hung of Epoch Times,

  A group of activists protesting against fossil fuels were arrested after staging a sit-in at the Interior Department in Washington on Oct. 15.

  

  The protesters stormed the Stewart Lee Udall Main Interior Building on Thursday afternoon, with “multiple injuries” reportedly sustained by federal police and one officer hospitalized, according to a statement from Interior Department Communications Director Melissa Schwartz.

  Thursday was the second to last day of the week-long protest held by People vs. Fossil Fuels to demand a declaration of a national climate emergency by President Joe Biden.

  The organization also demanded Biden stop approving fossil fuel projects and speed up the end of the “fossil fuel era.”

  While the Federal Protective Service (FPS) did not indicate how many people were arrested on Thursday, People vs. Fossil Fuels said that 35 were arrested at the Interior department.

  By the end of the week-long protest, People vs. Fossil Fuels claimed that 655 people had been arrested.

  On the same day, Melissa Schwartz stated, “Interior Department leadership believes strongly in respecting and upholding the right to free speech and peaceful protest.”

  “Centering the voices of lawful protesters is and will continue to be an important foundation of our democracy,” Schwartz added.

  FPS told Fox News that it was “committed to the safety of demonstrators participating in lawful protests” and expressed full support for the “peaceful expression of all people.”

  “FPS will continue to pursue our mission of ensuring the safety and security of federal employees and facilities, consistent with the law,” added the statement.

  FPS also mentioned the U.S. Park Police and Washington Metropolitan Police Department for helping “to detain, prosecute, or take action against anyone who caused harm and attempted to disrupt the business of the federal government yesterday.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 10/17/2021 – 19:45

• Joe Manchin Slams 'Out-Of-State Socialist' Bernie Sanders Over VA Op-Ed
  Joe Manchin Slams ‘Out-Of-State Socialist’ Bernie Sanders Over VA Op-Ed

  Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) says he ‘won’t take orders from a socialist’ after Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) wrote an op-ed in a West Virginia newspaper urging Manchin’s constituents to support President Biden’s infrastructure bill.

  

  “This isn’t the first time an out-of-stater has tried to tell West Virginians what is best for them despite having no relationship to our state,” wrote the 74-year-old Manchin in a Friday statement.

  “Congress should proceed with caution on any additional spending and I will not vote for a reckless expansion of government programs,” he continued, adding: “No op-ed from a self-declared Independent socialist is going to change that.”

  https://t.co/iU96GLGzsT pic.twitter.com/ly944dr2dE

  — Senator Joe Manchin (@Sen_JoeManchin) October 15, 2021

  Sanders, 80, slammed Manchin and fellow Democratic Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona in the Charleston Gazette-Mail Op-Ed over the moderate Democrats’ opposition to the $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill.

  “Poll after poll shows overwhelming support for this legislation,” claimed Sanders, “Yet, the political problem we face is that in a 50-50 Senate we need every Democratic senator to vote ‘yes.’ We now have only 48. Two Democratic senators remain in opposition, including Sen. Joe Manchin.”

  “This is a pivotal moment in modern American history,” Sanders continued. “We now have a historic opportunity to support the working families of West Virginia, Vermont, and the entire country and create policy which works for all, not just the few.”

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 10/17/2021 – 19:20

• Pentagon Faces Class-Action Lawsuit Over Vaccine Mandates On Military, Federal Employees And Contractors
  Pentagon Faces Class-Action Lawsuit Over Vaccine Mandates On Military, Federal Employees And Contractors

  By Mimi Nguyen Ly of The Epoch Times,

  Service members from all five branches of the U.S. military, federal employees, and federal civilian contractors have joined in a class-action lawsuit against the Department of Defense over its COVID-19 vaccine mandates.

  

  The 24 plaintiffs “face a deadline under the Federal COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate to receive a COVID-19 vaccine that violates their sincerely held religious beliefs, and have been refused any religious exemption or accommodation,” according to Liberty Counsel, the Christian legal firm that filed the lawsuit.

  The lawsuit (pdf), filed in the U.S. District Court for the Middle District of Florida, lists President Joe Biden, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, and Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas as defendants.

  The plaintiffs are asking the court to issue a temporary restraining order (pdf) to prevent the COVID-19 vaccine mandates from taking effect, and ultimately issue an injunction to prevent the Pentagon from enforcing the Biden administration’s COVID-19 vaccine mandates.

  Biden on Sept. 9 issued an executive order requiring almost all federal employees to get a COVID-19 vaccine as a condition of employment. Regular testing isn’t an option. Civilian federal employees and contractors have until Nov. 22 to be fully vaccinated.

  Austin issued a memorandum on Aug. 24 saying that all military service members must receive a COVID-19 vaccine, after which all the branches of the military announced various deadlines for its troops to be fully vaccinated, regardless of whether they had previously survived a bout of COVID-19, and threatening suspensions or other disciplinary actions if service members don’t have a pending exemption request or fail to comply.

  The U.S. Navy and Marine Corps have set a Nov. 28 deadline for their active-duty service members; reservists have until Dec. 28. For the Army and the Air Force, the deadlines for active-duty service members are Dec. 15 and Nov. 2, respectively, and deadlines for National Guard and Reserve members are June 30, 2022, and Dec. 2, 2021, respectively. U.S. Coast Guard members have until Nov. 22 to be fully vaccinated.

  “Plaintiffs have demonstrated their commitments to the United States Constitution and the Nation’s future comfort, security, and prosperity. This Court should demand that the Nation return the favor. Telling Plaintiffs they must accept or receive a shot they oppose according to their sincerely held religious beliefs, or face court martial, dishonorable discharge, and other life altering disciplinary measures, disgraces the sacrifices these heroes have made,” attorneys wrote in the filing, adding that relief is “needed now” to “prevent the immediate and irreparable injury” imposed by the vaccine mandates.

  A Pentagon spokesperson said in an emailed statement, “We do not comment on ongoing litigation.”

  “The Biden administration has no authority to require the COVID shots for the military or for federal employees or civilian contractors. Nor can the Biden administration pretend that the federal Religious Freedom Restoration Act and the First Amendment do not apply to its unlawful mandates,” Liberty Counsel Founder and Chairman Mat Staver said in a statement. “The Commander-in-Chief must end this shameful treatment and abuse of our brave military heroes. Forcing the COVID shots without consent or consideration for their sincere religious beliefs is illegal.”

  White House officials didn’t immediately respond to a request by The Epoch Times for comment.

  Religious Exemption Requests Denied, Suit Claims

  The lawsuit notes that many of its 24 plaintiffs have had their requests for religious exemption denied, while other plaintiffs “have been threatened with dishonorable discharge, court martial, termination, or other life-altering disciplinary measures” for seeking such exemptions.

  “Some of these Plaintiffs have been informed by their superiors that no religious exemption or accommodation will be given, so there is no point in even making a request,” attorneys said in the filing.

  The suit said that Vice Admiral William Galinis, commander of Naval Sea Systems Command, on Oct. 14 issued a warning to his entire command of more than 85,000 civilian and military personnel, saying, “The Executive Order mandating vaccinations for all federal employees has provided clear direction. We are moving quickly toward a workforce where vaccinations are a condition of employment. Frankly, if you are not vaccinated, you will not work for the U.S. Navy.”

  A Navy spokeswoman declined to comment last week when asked whether any religious or medical exemptions had been approved.

  The three currently available COVID-19 vaccines are the one-dose vaccine from Johnson & Johnson, and the two-dose vaccines from Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech.

  “Plaintiffs’ sincerely held religious beliefs preclude them from accepting any one of the three currently available COVID-19 vaccines derived from, produced or manufactured by, tested on, developed with, or otherwise connected to aborted fetal cell lines,” the suit argued, subsequently providing evidence that aborted fetal cell lines were involved in certain stages of development of all three vaccines.

  “Plaintiffs’ religious beliefs compel them to not condone, support, justify, or benefit (directly or indirectly) from the taking of innocent human life via abortion, and that to do so is sinning against God,” attorneys wrote.

  Attorneys are asking the court to declare that the federal COVID-19 vaccine mandate on the plaintiffs is unlawful because it violates the First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution and the federal Religious Freedom Restoration Act by “imposing a substantial burden on Plaintiffs’ sincerely held religious beliefs.”

  EUA Products Cannot Be Mandated: Attorneys

  Attorneys argued in the suit that no COVID-19 vaccine is available in the United States that has received full licensing and approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, and as such, cannot be mandated.

  Austin, in his memo on Aug. 24 (pdf), stated that the mandatory vaccinations “will only use COVID-19 vaccines that receive full licensure from the [FDA] in accordance with FDA-approved labeling and guidance,” attorneys noted, arguing that “additional military documents reveal that the Department of Defense is not following its own directive” and is using vaccines under emergency use authorization [EUA] “because there is no FDA approved vaccine available.”

  Austin’s memo came a day after the FDA issued full approval for future Pfizer–BioNTech COVID-19 vaccines, which will bear the Comirnaty label. The latter vaccine wasn’t available in the United States as of Oct. 12, The Epoch Times reported previously.

  The attorneys argued that explicit statutory conditions for an EUA require that people are given “the option to accept or refuse administration” of a given unapproved product that has been authorized for emergency use.

  According to the lawsuit, “Because all COVID-19 vaccines available in the United States are subject to the EUA Statute restrictions and limitations, all individuals—including military service members, federal employees, and federal civilian contractors—have the explicit right under the EUA Statute to accept or refuse administration of the products.”

  Attorneys asked the court to declare the vaccine mandate as unlawful because it violates the EUA provisions of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act “by imposing a mandatory COVID-19 shot upon Plaintiffs without giving the ‘option to accept or refuse’ the EUA product.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 10/17/2021 – 18:55

• Has The Housing Bubble Peaked: Zillow Pauses Robo-Flipping Due To "Snags"
  Has The Housing Bubble Peaked: Zillow Pauses Robo-Flipping Due To “Snags”

  In recent weeks we had heard several anecdotal reports that Zillow’s electronic house flipping service was underperforming, buying houses at overinflated prices and then flipping them for a loss (even when factoring in fees and commissions).

  Zillow is charging handsome service fees and commissions that are not reflected in the listed sale price – they still make several percent even if they buy and sell at a nominal loss. That notwithstanding they are surely catching the knife on some of these properties.

  — Alex D. Bibbey, MD (@thats_bone) October 8, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Zillow seem to be selling some houses now lower then they bought them at loss? pic.twitter.com/x0khRRWH7J

  — LookingAhead (@parklandtrader) September 18, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Zillow bought my parents old house in 2019 and ended up taking a loss cause they did minor renovations after but ended up selling it for less then what zillow paid them. My parents skated away with that check so fast. 🤣 https://t.co/JePzW4s2LC

  — Agatha Harkness (@lexisloopy) September 23, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  It appears there has been some truth to that, because according to Bloomberg,  Zillow, which acquired more than 3,800 homes in the second quarter, “will stop pursuing new home purchases as it works through a backlog of properties already in its pipeline.”

  Zillow Group Inc. is taking a break from buying U.S. homes after the online real estate giant’s pivot into tech-powered house-flipping hit a snag.

  While Zillow is best known for publishing real estate listings online and calculating estimated home values – called Zestimates – that let users keep track of how their home is worth (with the traffic on the company’s apps and websites serving as the main source of profits in Zillow’s online marketing business), more recently it has been buying and selling thousands of U.S. homes. In 2018, the company launched Zillow Offers, joining a small group of tech-enabled home-flippers such as OpenDoor, known as iBuyers. In the new business, Zillow invites homeowners to request an offer on their house and uses algorithms to generate a price. If an owner accepts, Zillow buys the property, makes light repairs and puts it back on the market.

  While the service was firing on all cylinders in the aftermath of the Covid crisis when home prices tumbled only to shoot back up to all time highs, rising at a record 20% Y/Y pace, in recent months it has found flipping to be far more challenging as the pace of flips has slowed drastically in a housing market where most of the first time buyers now find themselves priced out.

  

  However, instead of admitting that we may be nearing (or have already passed) the peak of yet another housing bubble, Zillow has instead blamed “operational capacity” and being short staffed to meet the pace of transactions.

  While the iBuying process is powered by algorithms – which as the anecdotes above suggest may way above fair value – as well aslarge pools of capital, it’s also reliant on humans. Before Zillow signs a contract to buy a house, it sends an inspector to make sure the property doesn’t need costly repairs. After it buys a property, contractors replace carpets and repaint interiors.

  So joining the vast majority of US corporations which blame lack of workers on reduced output (it could, say, hike wages to quickly offset its staffing challenges), Zillow has blamed the lack of workers to perform the menial home-flipping tasks.

  “Given unexpected high demand, Zillow Offers has hit its capacity for buying homes for the remainder of the year,” an employee who works in the company’s home-buying operation in two states wrote in an email to a business partner that was viewed by Bloomberg.

  Staffing shortages have reportedly been exacerbated by Zillow’s willingness to let customers set a closing date months into the future, meaning it could agree to buy a house in August and begin renovating it in November.

  “We are beyond operational capacity in our Zillow Offers business and are not taking on additional contracts to purchase homes at this time,” a spokesperson for Zillow said in an email. “We continue to process the purchase of homes from sellers who are already under contract, as quickly as possible.”

  None of this of course would be an issue if Zillow merely hiked wages, a step that would immediately fill all the vacant positions and resolve its “stated challenges” overnight at a tiny hit to profit margins. The fact that it has not done so suggests that the cause has nothing to do with the stated reason for the flipping pause. Instead, the most likely reason why Zillow is pulling back from robo-flipping is that the housing market is starting to crack and this particular segment is no longer profitable.

  In any case, according to Bloomberg, pausing new acquisitions will allow the company to work through its backlog, the narrative goes. Yet while both Zillow and Opendoor briefly stopped buying homes in the early days of the pandemic, the companies ultimately benefited from the housing boom that started when early economic lockdowns lifted, it still took Zillow several months to resume purchasing homes at its pre-pandemic pace.

  Curiously, while Zillow is putting roboflipping on hold, Opendoor has no such “worker shortage” issues despite having a similar business model.

  “Opendoor is open for business and continues to serve its customers with a simple, certain, fast and trusted home move,” a spokesman for the company said in an email.

  It may be open, but one wonders for how long: Zillow has said it plans to refer potential customers to traditional real estate agents (and, by extension, its competitors). It would not be doing this if it was handing over not just market share but also potentially generous profit margins.

  As such, the real question is whether Zillow’s move may the first sign that the US housing market has finally peaked and – with rates expected to keep rising for the foreseeable future along with inflation – it’s all downhill from here.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 10/17/2021 – 18:30

• Hedge Fund CIO: The Old And The Young Are Set For A "Terrifying, Agonizing" Battle
  Hedge Fund CIO: The Old And The Young Are Set For A “Terrifying, Agonizing” Battle

  By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

  “Today’s announcement has the potential to be a game-changer,” said Biden, from the White House steps, directing attention to the Port of Los Angeles and its newly extended hours of operation. “Private sector companies need to step up as well,” pleaded the President, scrambling to grease America’s rusty supply chain.

  Nearby, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its consumer price index for September. The CPI rose +5.4% from 2020. And a few blocks away, the Social Security Administration considered the arguments for and against transitory inflation, then hiked next year’s benefits by +5.9%. That’s the largest cost-of-living adjustment in 40 years, and a reminder that the lags in inflation are integrated into public policy. In 2020, the inflation adjustment was just +1.6%. But that was before consumer prices jumped +5.4% – inflation cut 3.8% of purchasing power from seniors living off social security. And they’re not alone. This time last year, investors who sought the safety of risk-free 10yr Treasury notes (+0.74% yield back then) lost -11.19 % when measured on an inflation-adjusted basis. What connects these two stories is that both Social Security commitments and Treasury securities represent government liabilities.

  And the net present value of those liabilities is impossibly large to meet – in real terms, at least. So the government’s long process of lightening its burden from that real liability has finally begun.

  If successfully coordinated and executed by the Fed, Treasury, IRS, regulators and elected politicians, inflation rates will be guided to remain well above nominal interest rates for decades. That’s what the inflation-index Treasury market is signaling. By design, the process will destroy vast sums of capital because private-sector assets are the government’s liabilities. And our job as investors is to adapt to this new environment. The starting place is to view it all as neither good nor bad, but rather an inevitable process that simply is – a world of nominal illusion.

  * * *

  Lines

  After decades of coordinated government policy that prevented widespread capital destruction in each and every recession, we unsurprisingly find ourselves with an overabundance of it. Interest rates remain so low not simply because the Fed set rates at zero and buys $120bln of bonds per month. When there is too much of any commodity, its price declines. And until the supply of capital shrinks meaningfully, or demand for it rises materially, the interest rate that borrowers are prepared to pay for something so abundant will remain low.

  Of the many lines that divide our fractured world, the darkest separates young and old. For decades, Baby Boomers advocated for an economic and entitlement structure that favored the old relative to the young. The ageing now overwhelmingly control societal wealth and have granted themselves entitlements that claim an outsized portion of future economic output. The young are expected to produce this for them. Baby Boomers also saddled their offspring with a climate crisis. And the young are no longer willing to tolerate the status quo.

  Much of the tension we see today emanates from competing interests between young and old. This gets obscured by those with an interest to divert attention. But economics doesn’t lie for long. And systems that swing too far from balance are usually drawn back toward center. So the pressures to deprive the old of the wealth they accumulated and the entitlements they granted themselves has begun. The path this process takes will define markets for decades. The fight will be wicked. Agonizing. It has started by haircutting the wealth of those who own bonds.

  The worst possible investment environment for wealthy old people is a high inflation environment with (1) very low yields on risk-free bonds, and (2) extremely high valuations for risky assets. Low yields deprive old people of a way to mitigate their loss of buying power. So they grow poorer unless they take market risk. But when asset valuations are historically high and increasingly disconnected from economic reality, old people who buy them run the risk that prices crash. Without income to recover from such losses, such a situation is rightly terrifying.

  US inflation over the past year was +5.4%. Old people who own risk-free 10-year Treasury notes to secure their retirement lost -11.19% of their real purchasing power in that period (bond prices fell and inflation rose). Those who owned investment grade corporate bonds lost -4.8% of their real purchasing power. In a great irony that foreshadows the generational stresses ahead, old people who own gold to hedge inflation lost -12.8% of their real purchasing power in the past year (prices fell -7.4% and inflation rose +5.4%).

  The people who maintained their real wealth in the past year did so because they owned risk assets. The S&P 500 return including dividends was +30.3%. After discounting that by the +5.4% rise in the consumer price index, the real return was +24.9%. House prices rose +19.7%, and on a real basis were +14.3%. Food price indexes jumped +30% over the past year, gasoline and copper prices leapt +50%, oil doubled, and natural gas surged +150% in the US. But few old people own such things. They consume them. And the one thing old people are unwilling to risk their money on is digital assets. Bitcoin surged 441%. Ethereum soared 920%.

  Anecdote

  There are two good things about being young and broke. The best part of course, is that you are not old. But you also have little to lose. And that is liberating for a person with decades to recover from taking risk in ventures that might fail.

  Having a large group of such youth is an invaluable asset for the older citizens supported by their innovations and output. But powerful forces, if improperly managed, create havoc. So all successful societies strike a healthy balance between the competing desires of old and young. Nations that favor the former to the detriment of the latter suffer upheaval. This is roughly where we are now – nor are such dynamics limited to the US. And they are amplified by a world with a rising proportion of unproductive elderly.

  Our youth, in a system they increasingly recognize as profoundly unfair and biased against their interests, are doing as they should: advocating for vast spending programs to build a green infrastructure and social system that reflects their priorities, unconcerned by the resulting inflation that will erode the wealth of their elders.

  With powerful new blockchain technologies, many are building businesses to bankrupt their parent’s incumbent industries whose lobbyists calcify what our youth see as an unjust status quo. They are fleeing high tax states with bankrupt entitlement systems, for cities like Austin which they then remake in their image. As elderly gold owners writhe in portfolio pain, confused why the price of yellow metal is falling with inflation rising, our young people look to the digital future, buying bitcoin, ether. Solana. NFTs.

  And as investors, our job is to recognize such trends, capitalizing on the opportunities they create, mitigating the risks such periods of upheaval produce. And in this new world, transitioning from old to young, unsettling inversions emerge. The strategies we previously turned to for safety have become risky. While unfamiliar investments that at first appear risky, provide safety.  

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 10/17/2021 – 18:00

• Fauci Tees Up Unvaccinated Blame Campaign Over Potential 'Fifth Wave'
  Fauci Tees Up Unvaccinated Blame Campaign Over Potential ‘Fifth Wave’

  Biden’s chief medical adviser, Dr. Anthony Faucci, is setting the stage to blame the next uptick in Covid-19 cases on the unvaccinated.

  

  Fauci’s ‘science’ – which does not include the vastly superior naturally-acquired immunity from previous Covid-19 infections, or the fact that the vaccine does not prevent transmission – presumes that “the more people we get vaccinated, the less likelihood that there’s gonna be another surge as we go into the winter.“

  Of note, just over 67% of the US is fully vaccinated, according to the CDC.

  JUST IN: Fauci says unvaccinated Americans could lead to dangers of fifth COVID wave https://t.co/EmUjLZPYG6 pic.twitter.com/NmKutAcFK0

  — Insider Paper (@TheInsiderPaper) October 17, 2021

  Just like 86.1% vaccinated Singapore?

  After vaccinating over 85% of its population, Singapore 🇸🇬 finally flattened the curve, but along the wrong axis: pic.twitter.com/jHjczPGooE

  — Dr. Eli David (@DrEliDavid) October 8, 2021

  

  If only there were cheap and effective prophylaxis and early treatment options in everyone’s medicine cabinet to take at the first sign of infection.

  

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsFauci on Sunday also suggested that people shouldn’t be hesitant to take Johnson & Johnson booster shots, as they probably should have made their vaccine a two-dose regimen instead of a single shot anyway.

  “I think that they should feel good about it because what the advisors to the FDA felt, is that given the data that they saw, very likely, this should have been a two-dose vaccine to begin with,” he told ABC News’ “This Week.”

  “What the advisors to the FDA felt is that, given the data that they saw, very likely, this should have been a two dose vaccine to begin with,” Dr. Anthony Fauci tells @MarthaRaddatz booster shots authorized for Johnson & Johnson vaccine. https://t.co/0guMYoI4vj pic.twitter.com/KjPQy9ZGg0

  — This Week (@ThisWeekABC) October 17, 2021

  The ‘top doc’ went on to suggest that some J&J vaccine recipients might be well served to mix brands – receiving a Pfizer or Moderna shot as their booster.

  “You know, that is true the data you refer to that if you [get the booster], people who have originally received J&J with either Moderna or Pfizer, the level of antibodies that you induce in them is much higher than if you boost them with the original J&J,” said Fauci, adding “I think it’s going to be variable depending upon who you are. For example, a woman of childbearing age who’d would have almost no issues at all with a possible adverse event of myocarditis — which you see, rarely…with the mRNA vaccine — that person might want to opt for that approach.”

  “If you’re a young man who does have that very, very rare risk of getting myocarditis, you might want to take the J&J route.”

  So remember – when the next Covid-19 wave hits the US, blame the unvaccinated. Of course, we don’t expect Fauci to actually call out the least vaccinated demographics, as that might ruin such finely curated narratives.

  

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 10/17/2021 – 17:30

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• David Hogg Rebuked Again, Youth Gun Sports Leagues See "Record-Setting" Participation
  David Hogg Rebuked Again, Youth Gun Sports Leagues See “Record-Setting” Participation

  Op-Ed via The Machine Gun Nest (TMGN). 

  Gun Control activist David Hogg can’t seem to catch a break. His viewpoint that younger people are more anti-gun appears to be continuously rebuked by new reports from this post-COVID world. 

  Most recently, the NRA reported that the USA Clay Target League (USACTL) had its biggest year yet for student-athletes. Almost 40,000 will be participating in programs in the fall. Both male and female students compete on the same team, meaning that not just young males are represented here. 

  “Despite constant challenges both last year and this year, we are pleased to have our largest fall registration numbers ever,” said John Nelson, president of the USACTL. “The record-setting participation this fall is the result of the incredible efforts of coaches and families to overcome ongoing issues with the pandemic and ammunition shortages.”

  

  In this post-COVID world, not only are people connecting more with the outdoors, but they’re also starting to connect with shooting sports as well. The popularity of shooting sports has grown exponentially since 2020. We can speak to that here at TMGN as many of new customers have become increasingly interested in competitive shooting, especially our millennial customers. 

  

  This is a big sign, as we wrote about before and continued to highlight that David Hogg’s assertations that this large crowd of young anti-gun voters chomping at the bit to saw AR15s in half is a fantasy at best.

  

  The interesting thing about people who get into competitive shooting as opposed to someone who bought a gun during the panic buy is, while those who bought during the panic buy are likely to change their minds on gun ownership, they may not continue to engage heavily with those in firearms culture or have conversations that advance their views. On the other hand, those who compete are exposed to more ideas and have more informed opinions on firearms, typically leading them to be more pro-gun. 

  The reality of the situation is that millennials and Gen Z are becoming more conservative and have positive attitudes towards guns. According to Forbes, “Gen Z is more individualistic, more conservative both social and fiscally…” naturally, this idea lends itself to firearms. It’s no wonder Gen Z is more pro-gun, raised with access to the internet, first-person shooting games, and action movies. Not to mention watching the debt crisis and student loans spiral out of control. Their views seem to align more with Libertarians or moderate republicans. Researching each of their ideas independently through the internet has allowed them to come to a logical conclusion instead of an emotionally influenced one.

  Only time will tell, but it seems like more and more data is showing that David Hogg is wrong as his anti-gun campaign fades into the darkness. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/16/2021 – 23:30

• Visualizing The Global Silver Supply Chain
  Visualizing The Global Silver Supply Chain

  Although silver is widely known as a precious metal, its industrial uses accounted for more than 50% of silver demand in 2020.

  From jewelry to electronics, various industries utilize silver’s high conductivity, aesthetic appeal, and other properties in different ways. With the adoption of electric vehicles, 5G networks, and solar panels, the world is embracing more technologies that rely on silver.

  But, as Visual Capitalist’s Govind Bhutada details below, behind all this silver are the companies that mine and refine the precious metal before it reaches other industries.

  

  The above infographic from Blackrock Silver outlines silver’s global supply chain and brings the future of silver supply into the spotlight.

  The Top 20 Countries for Silver Mining

  Although silver miners operate in many countries across the globe, the majority of silver comes from a few regions.

  

   

  Mexico, Peru, and China—the top three producers—combined for just over 50% of global silver production in 2020. South and Central American countries, including Mexico and Peru, produced around 390 million ounces—roughly half of the 784 million ounces mined globally.

   

  Silver currency backed China’s entire economy at one point in history. Today, China is not only the third-largest silver producer but also the third-largest largest consumer of silver jewelry.

  Poland is one of only three European countries in the mix. More than 99% of Poland’s silver comes from the KGHM Polska Miedź Mine, the world’s largest silver mining operation.

  While silver’s supply chain spans all four hemispheres, concentrated production in a few countries puts it at risk of disruptions.

  The Sustainability of Silver’s Supply Chain

  The mining industry can often be subject to political crossfire in jurisdictions that aren’t safe or politically stable. Mexico, Chile, and Peru—three of the top five silver-producing nations—have the highest number of mining conflicts in Latin America.

  Alongside production in politically unstable jurisdictions, the lack of silver-primary mines reinforces the need for a sustainable silver supply chain. According to the World Silver Survey, only 27% of silver comes from silver-primary mines. The other 73% is a by-product of mining for other metals like copper, zinc, gold, and others.

  As the industrial demand for silver rises, primary sources of silver in stable jurisdictions will become more valuable—and Nevada is one such jurisdiction.

  Nevada: The Silver State

  Nevada, known as the Silver State, was once the pinnacle of silver mining in the United States.

  The discovery of the Comstock Lode in 1859, one of America’s richest silver deposits, spurred a silver rush in Nevada. But after the Comstock Lode mines began declining around 1874, it was the Tonopah district that brought Nevada’s silver production back to life.

  Tonopah is a silver-primary district with a 100:1 silver-to-gold ratio. It also boasts 174 million ounces of historical silver production under its belt. Furthermore, between 1900 and 1950, Tonopah produced high-grade silver with an average grade of 1,384 grams per tonne. However, the Second World War brought a stop to mining in Tonopah, with plenty of silver left to discover.

  Today, Nevada is the second-largest silver-producing state in the U.S. and the Tonopah district offers the opportunity to revive a secure and stable source of primary silver production for the future.

  Blackrock Silver is working to bring silver back to the Silver State with exploration at its flagship Tonopah West project in Nevada.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/16/2021 – 23:00

• Dean Cain: "Woke" Superman's Mission Is Neither Bold Nor Brave
  Dean Cain: “Woke” Superman’s Mission Is Neither Bold Nor Brave

  Authored by Dean Cain via RealClearPolitics.com,

  DC Comics recently revealed that in an upcoming issue titled “Superman: Son of Kal-El,” the son of Lois Lane and Clark Kent would be bisexual, and that he’s going to fight “real-world problems” such as climate change, that he’ll protest the deportation of refugees, and date a “hacktivist.”

  

  What exactly is a “hacktivist”? Isn’t hacking illegal? Is Superman supporting  criminal activity? It’s a chore to keep up with all the different iterations of the current superheroes, but DC Comics is calling  it a “bold new direction” for the character. I  see nothing “bold” about it.

  I say they’re jumping on the bandwagon, but they’re fighting the wrong issues. There is a clear agenda here. It’s globalist, it’s anti-America, but it’s not bold and it’s not brave.  

  Robin, Batman’s famed red-headed sidekick, came out as bisexual recently, and honestly, who is shocked about that one?  The new Captain America is gay. The character of Alex (my daughter in the live-action series “Supergirl”) was lesbian. A gay or bisexual superhero is not groundbreaking in 2021. It’s banal. I have zero issue with that. I’m all for inclusiveness and acceptance and tolerance. It might be more interesting, however, if they created new characters instead of retrofitting the identity of existing ones.

  “Brave” would have been to do some of this 30 years ago. Or to depict Superman, or Jon Kent, fighting for the rights of LGBT people in Iran where they’ll throw you off a building for the “offense” of even being suspected of homosexuality. And why doesn’t Superman fight the injustices that created the refugees whose deportation he’s protesting? Digging deep into those issues — that would be brave. That would be informative. I’d read that comic book.

  “Bold” would be fighting for the rights of Afghan women to attend school and be able to live free and go to work, and fighting for the right for boys to not be raped by men under the supposedly newly enlightened Taliban.

  There is genuine evil in the world.  Actual corruption and government tyranny.  Plenty of real-world things to fight against. Like people being put into Chinese concentration camps because of their religion. Or human trafficking — honest-to-God slavery — taking place all over the world today.  It exists. Right now, and in our own hemisphere. Drug cartels trafficking people across the border, sexually molesting young women. Brave and bold would be to tackle those issues and shine a light into that darkness. I’d love to see the character doing that. I’d read that, too. 

  “Truth, Justice, and the American Way” is no longer the catchphrase of Superman. The new phrase? “Truth, Justice, and a Better World.” Okay, I’ll buy that, but what’s the vision that accompanies this more expansive view of social justice? What would make for  a better world? Socialism? Communism? Forced equality?

  To me, a better world is one in which people have more freedom and independence. Protection from government overreach and corruption. Safety and security. In a word, the idea of America. A government of the people, by the people, and for the people – concepts laid out by our Founding Fathers during the creation of the United States of America.

  No, America is not perfect. We are constantly striving for a more perfect union, but I believe it’s self-evident that ours is the most free and fair and most equitable country — with the most opportunity — in the history of the world. That’s why so many people are desperately making their way here, through all manner of hardships, from all corners of the globe.

  Yet, the cool thing right now is to bash America. But I wonder if most of the people who do so have really traveled and spent real time in other countries — dealing with other governments to see what the rest of the world is like.  I have, and most of the world is nothing like America. Most of the rest of the world lacks our individual freedom, our equality of opportunity, our right to compete in open markets, and, yes, the ability to attain material success. We shouldn’t apologize for any of it. We should revel in these values, which have attracted waves of new immigrants to our shores every year.

  In 1938, DC Comics (then called Action Comics) unveiled the story of unique immigrant, a baby from a dying planet who, as an adult, devotes his life to fighting crime, righting wrongs, and defending honest government. This is not hyperbole. In the very first Superman strip, our hero ends up in the U.S. Capitol where he interrupts a corrupt bargain between a lobbyist and a lawmaker. This, after convincing the governor to spare an innocent woman about to be executed for a murder she didn’t commit, roughing up a wife beater, and (of course) saving the life of Lois Lane. Superman was a fast worker.

  What makes America great isn’t our government, and it certainly isn’t an increasingly authoritative “nanny state.” Instead, it’s our commitment to freedom and our traditions of self-reliance. Of course, we should acknowledge the shortcomings of our history and strive to live up to our creed, but we live in a country made great despite Big Government and career politicians, not because of them. As Ronald Reagan said, “Government does not solve problems; it subsidizes them.”

  As for the cultural gatekeepers busily rethinking which of our national heroes — or iconic superheroes, for that matter — belong on pedestals, I’d say this: Inclusiveness is healthy, but tinkering with the sexuality or political outlook of fictional heroes does not necessarily improve their character. Here, after all, was the initial description of the man from Krypton: “Superman, champion of the oppressed. The physical marvel who had sworn to devote his existence to helping those in need!”

  That’s a hard mantra to improve on, in my view, and is quintessentially American – it champions both strength and compassion.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/16/2021 – 22:30

• These Are The World's Most Interesting Neighborhoods
  These Are The World’s Most Interesting Neighborhoods

  In light of the travel restrictions during the coronavirus pandemic, city trips to domestic destinations have become more and more attractive for short vacations; but, as Statista’s Florian Zandt notes, now that regulations are starting to get lifted again and tourists are bound to explore cities beyond their own regional and national confines.

  Time Out Magazine has compiled a list of the most interesting neighborhoods around the world as a guideline – with more than one unexpected entry in the top 10.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  While the survey among 27,000 city dwellers identified mainstays like New York and its Chelsea neighborhood, the lively XI District of Budapest or the historical Jongno 3-ga area of Seoul as some of the boroughs that offer city trippers a lot in terms of culinary richness, culture and a sense of community, the Senegalese capital Dakar and its Ngor quarter and Vilnius’ Station District are more unusual picks. This might be rooted in the methodology of the survey, with local editors weighing the results according to their expertise and more importance given to the communality aspect brought to the forefront by the global pandemic.

  Interestingly, the majority of the most sought after city trip destinations before COVID-19 are absent from Time Out’s top 10. In 2018, Bangkok had the most international overnight visitors with roughly 23 million, followed closely by Paris and London according to a survey by MasterCard. New York City ranked seventh with 13.6 million, while Seoul came in at eleventh place with 11.2 million tourists staying overnight.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/16/2021 – 22:00

• Loudoun County Superintendent Appears To Admit District Violated State Law By Not Reporting Sexual Assault
  Loudoun County Superintendent Appears To Admit District Violated State Law By Not Reporting Sexual Assault

  Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

  The superintendent of a Virginia school district on Friday appeared to admit the district violated state law in failing to properly report alleged sexual assaults, as a state official confirmed the matter is under review.

  

  Loudoun County Superintendent Scott Ziegler is seen during a school board meeting in Ashburg, Va., on June 22, 2021. (LCPS/Screenshot via The Epoch Times)

  Loudoun County Public Schools Superintendent Scott Ziegler made the admission during a brief appearance before reporters, where he read a prepared statement and took no questions.

  Ziegler said that the district made “errors in our state reporting regarding disciplinary incidents in schools,” adding that it “inadvertently omitted some information in the past.”

  “That is extremely concerning, and we are taking steps to make sure that process is improved. I will say that I have no reason to believe at this time that any missing reports were due to an intent to hide any information from the Virginia Department of Education,” he said, blaming an alleged “lack of oversight” that was in place before he was appointed in June, even though he served as interim superintendent starting Jan. 1.

  Ziegler appeared to be responding to a report by The Daily Wire that the district failed to record multiple instances of alleged sexual assault even though it’s required to by state law.

  Ziegler said during a school board meeting on June 22 that he was unaware of any record of assaults happening in the district’s restrooms, nearly a month after a girl was allegedly raped by a male in a bathroom at Stone Bridge High School.

  State law says that reports “shall be made” to school and district authorities regarding all assaults on school buses, on school grounds, or at a school-sponsored activity.

  State law also directs district superintendents to annually report such incidents to the Virginia Department of Education (VDOE). But a public database of reports showed at least one assault that was not reported to state authorities.

  A Loudoun County Public Schools spokesperson declined to comment on Ziegler’s Friday remarks but did not dispute the characterization that Ziegler acknowledged state law was not complied with.

  Superintendents who fail to comply or secure compliance with the reporting requirements are subject to sanctions.

  A VDOE spokesman told The Epoch Times in an email that the agency has reviewed the submissions made by Loudoun County Public Schools (LCPS) concerning discipline, crime, and violation “and is in communication with LCPS regarding the accuracy of their reports and whether the division is in compliance with state reporting requirements.

  The spokesman confirmed that the submissions are required annually and that superintendents are required to certify their accuracy.

  “This is a matter that VDOE takes very seriously and is actively investigating discrepancies in the LCPS reports,” he said.

  

  Attendees are seen during a school board meeting in Loudoun County, Va., on June 22, 2021. (Terri Wu/The Epoch Times)

  In his statement, Ziegler said he made misleading comments during the June meeting. He said his remarks came after wrongly interpreting a question about incidents in bathrooms as only involving transgender or “gender-fluid” students.

  “I regret that my comments were misleading and I apologize for the distress that error caused families. I should have asked Board Member Barts clarifying questions to get to the root of her question, rather than assuming what she meant. I will do better in the future,” he said.

  He also apologized for how the district handled two recent alleged assaults. 

  “Let me say to the families and students involved: My heart aches for you, and I am sorry that we failed to provide the safe, welcoming and affirming environment that we aspire to provide,” he said.

  A spokeswoman for father Scott Smith said in a statement to news outlets that Ziegler’s statement on behalf of LCPS “is the first acknowledgment that we have had that they are in fact responsible for their bad decision-making and policies that resulted in the two sexual assaults that happened in our high schools.”

  “Today, Superintendent Ziegler said what we already knew: that the actions of the Loudoun County School Board and Administration ‘failed to provide the safe environment’ for the Smith’s daughter,” an attorney for the family added, before accusing LCPS of prioritizing “misguided policies of political correctness over student safety.”

  Ziegler’s statement came as the county’s education leadership is under heightened scrutiny, in part because the board passed a policy that forces LCPS staffers to address students by any pronoun they choose, and lets students who claim to be another gender use that gender’s facilities.

  The policy drew a fiery response at the June meeting, which was disbanded after Smith and another parent were arrested.

  Smith recently revealed that his daughter was allegedly raped by a male inside a girl’s bathroom in her high school. He has described the male as utilizing the softness toward transgenderism to get inside the facility.

  Smith has accused district leadership of covering up the assault.

  The Loudon County Sheriff’s Office confirmed to The Epoch Times an incident took place in May at Stone Bridge High School but declined to provide more details, citing an ongoing investigation. It also declined to confirm reports that the same male was behind a sexual assault that took place at a different LCPS high school in October.

  A Freedom of Information Act request seeking more details on the incidents and the arrest of Smith was sent.

  LCPS told The Epoch Times earlier in the week via email that school board members “are typically not given details of disciplinary matters” and were not aware of the alleged rape until it was reported on in media outlets.

  A member of the school board facing a recall petition resigned from the board on Friday, and attorneys for the Smith family filed a lawsuit this week against the district.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/16/2021 – 21:30

• "Foreign Is Dangerous" – China's Censors Are Banning Hollywood Films From Domestic Market
  “Foreign Is Dangerous” – China’s Censors Are Banning Hollywood Films From Domestic Market

  Just like American political leaders and financial giants, Hollywood has also misjudged China’s intentions. After Dalian Wanda’s takeover of the American production company Legendary Entertainment, some warned that Beijing was trying to subvert American audiences’ opinion of China by injecting subtle Chinese propaganda into American films.

  But it turns out, Beijing and President Xi had no intentions of embracing Hollywood: instead, it appears they’re trying to keep Chinese consumers from absorbing Hollywood’s decadent cultural values. Which is why American films have been increasingly blocked from being shown in the Chinese entertainment market in recent years.

  According to a report by Nikkei, while Hollywood studios hoped China would be a major growth market for blockbuster films, China’s censors have been extremely selective about which films they allow to be screened in the world’s second-largest economy, whose box office revenues surpassed America’s in 20202 (thanks, in major part, to the pandemic).

  

  

  Source: Nikkei

  Just like NBA players, who need to watch what they say about sensitive issues like Hong Kong, Hollywood actors need to be careful about touching a nerve. When John Cena accidentally referred to Taiwan as “a country” in a promotional clip for “Fast & Furious 9”, he nearly cost the studio more than $200MM. It ended with him begging for the CCP’s forgiveness for his honest mistake.

  Although unpredictable, China has been a major factor in decision-making for American studios. Film productions sometimes tweak scenes to get access to China. A trailer for the sequel to the 1986 blockbuster “Top Gun” suggested that Japanese and Taiwanese flags on the leather jacket of the main character, Maverick, had been removed to avoid touching a nerve with Chinese regulators. In June, “Fast & Furious 9″‘ star John Cena apologized to Chinese fans for referring to Taiwan as a “country” in a promotional video for the movie. “Fast & Furious 9” made nearly $204 million in China and $173 million in the U.S.

  Sometimes, anticipating how the Chinese audience will react to a film can be difficult. Take “Shang-Chi”, which was widely praised for its all-Asian cast. The movie was widely criticized in China, despite taking in hundreds of millions of dollars worldwide.

  Studios and stars often find themselves drawn into controversy on Chinese social media. With a nearly all-Asian cast, “Shang-Chi” was well reviewed, widely appreciated and lucrative: Its U.S. box office had topped $200 million and it had brought in $388 million worldwide as of Oct. 5, according to Box Office Mojo. But as it was being promoted overseas, China’s netizens criticized the stars, Simu Liu and Awkwafina, for failing to conform to traditional Chinese beauty standards, and also the villain, the Mandarin, for being a stereotype. Some reviewers in the U.S. had similar criticisms of the Mandarin — a heavily reworked version of the Marvel comic strips’ Fu Manchu — but Chinese actor Tony Leung received particularly heavy criticism on Chinese social media for the role before the film was released.

  And while Marvel movies have been hugely popular in China, some fear the upcoming “Eternals” movie may be blocked by Chinese censors.

  Some suspect the upcoming “Eternals” faces difficulty securing a release date because its director, Oscar-winning China native Chloe Zhao, was criticized for making an unflattering comment about her homeland during an interview several years ago. The announcement of her Oscar victory was blocked on the Chinese internet as well. It remains unclear if Chinese moviegoers will be able to watch “Eternals” this year. “If I was an investor, I would be very concerned about a strategy at this point that depended on access to the Chinese market and the good graces of Chinese film regulators,” said Aynne Kokas, the author of “Hollywood Made in China” and a media studies professor at the University of Virginia. “To make very expensive films in anticipation of being able to deliver them to the Chinese market and then not being certain that’s possible is actually a much more financially irresponsible strategy from my perspective.”

  China’s censors only allow a quota of 34 foreign films to be released in mainland China each year. Despite years of negotiations between regulators in Hollywood and China’s censors, Beijing has refused to change the quota. Beijing also has caps on foreign content on the country’s streaming services.

  What’s more, Beijing’s recent crackdown on its own entertainment industry (banning depictions of “sissy” men while erasing one of the country’s most popular actresses from the Chinese Internet) further supports the fact that Beijing has a very clear idea of what entertainment should be permitted and what should not.

  “You look at all of the criticisms of the so-called sissy boys, the closing down of the K-pop fan clubs, closing down of tutoring services that taught English, English not included in school final exams…It’s the atmosphere right now that foreign is dangerous, and Hollywood is subject to that as well,” said Stanley Rosen, a political science professor who specializes in Chinese politics and society at the University of Southern California.

  And while Hollywood has so far depended on China for growth, Beijing doesn’t need Hollywood for anything. Already, homemade patriotic blockbusters have proven to be major hits in China, and abroad. For the past six years, domestic films have led the Chinese box office in revenue.

  But if Hollywood still needs China, it is an open question whether China needs Hollywood. In the first half of 2021, China’s box office reached roughly $3.9 billion, according to the tracking app Dengta, and although the highest-grossing films used to be Hollywood blockbusters, domestic films have taken the crown for the past six years. “Hi, Mom,” a heartwarming Chinese movie about a woman going back in time in an attempt to make her mother’s life better, has the highest box office of 2021 worldwide so far, at $822 million.

  Patriotic Chinese blockbusters have generated much revenue as well. “The Battle at Lake Changjin” raked in $203.2 million over the National Day weekend in China, according to Box Office Mojo.

  So, American studios now have a difficult choice to make. They can start being more sensitive to the demands of the Chinese market. But such a “craven” approach would likely elicit a backlash at home, as politicians accuse Hollywood of putting profits over human rights.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/16/2021 – 21:00

• Leader Of California's Largest Labor Union Quits After Tax, Embezzlement Charges
  Leader Of California’s Largest Labor Union Quits After Tax, Embezzlement Charges

  Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  The executive director of California’s largest labor union has resigned from her post after the state charged her and her husband with embezzlement, tax fraud, perjury, and failure to pay unemployment insurance taxes.

  

  Then-Service Employees International Union (SEIU) California Executive Director Alma Hernandez and her husband, Jose Moscoso, were charged in a seven-page felony complaint filed with the Sacramento County Superior Court earlier this month. Hernandez had held the position since 2016. The charges, which came about as a result of a multiagency investigation led by California’s Tax Recovery in the Underground Economy Task Force, were made public this week by California Attorney General Rob Bonta, a Democrat.

  SEIU represents more than 700,000 workers across California. Hernandez campaigned to defeat the September recall effort against Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom. Her organization reportedly donated upward of $6 million to the anti-recall campaign. Newsom easily won the vote.

  “The union is also a major player in the Capitol, pushing for policies such as a $15 minimum wage,” The Sacramento Bee reported. “It represents local government employees, state workers, in-home caregivers, lecturers, janitors, and health and care professionals, among others.”

  In announcing the criminal proceeding on Oct. 13, Bonta defended the role of labor unions.

  “Labor unions are an integral part of what makes California strong. Unions are working people standing together to demand fair wages, quality healthcare, a safe work environment, and the ability to retire with dignity,” he said in a statement.

  “Working people deserve leaders they can depend on to help them achieve these goals at the bargaining table and through political advocacy, but also leaders they can trust. When there is reason to believe trust has been broken and crimes have been committed, we have an ethical duty to investigate—we owe that to the people of California.”

  The California Department of Justice’s Bureau of Investigation began probing the married couple’s finances after the Fair Political Practices Commission alleged following an investigation that Hernandez had embezzled $4,500 from an SEIU California-sponsored political action committee, or PAC. It’s also alleged that she declared on a form that the PAC paid $11,700 to her husband for food vendor services that she knew hadn’t been provided.

  The California Franchise Tax Board alleges that Hernandez and Moscoso underreported their income by $1.4 million from 2014 to 2019. The Employment Development Department also claims that Moscoso’s air duct cleaning business failed to report and remit taxes on employees’ wages from 2017 to 2020 and that he paid employees under the table.

  The complaint also included a so-called white-collar crime enhancement that would force the couple to serve time in state prison if convicted.

  Family spokesperson Mari Hernandez told The Sacramento Bee that Hernandez quit her job so that she could focus on “legal issues facing her family.”

  “Those who know her know she has devoted her entire working life to the cause of justice and dignity for working people, especially those without power, privilege, or papers,” she said.

  Timothy Snowball, California litigator for the Freedom Foundation, which has been critical of public-sector unions, said malfeasance in labor unions is commonplace.

  

  “This kind of corruption at the highest echelons of leadership of SEIU California or any other union,” comes as no surprise “unfortunately,” according to Snowball.

  “We’ve been documenting and spending time for years explaining to public employees about this type of corruption,” he told The Epoch Times.

  “So the way this works is public employees show up at their jobs the first day, and like many jobs, you’re handed a pile of paperwork to fill out.”

  That paperwork typically contains union membership cards, according to Snowball.

  “A lot of times they don’t even explain what these cards are,” he said. “Sometimes, they’ll send in union representatives to strongarm people into signing these things. They find them, and then they have money taken out every paycheck to unions like SEIU California, who then take that money and spend it on political causes that those members very well may oppose.

  “And when people find out about this, they go, ‘Oh, my gosh. I had no idea you’re going to be spending this on fighting the recall or anything else. And hey, I don’t want my money spent that way.’ And the union winds up saying, ‘Sorry, you signed this card. You didn’t read the fine print, and now you’re out luck.’ And it’s absolutely outrageous.”

  Steve Smith, a spokesman for the California Labor Federation, implied that criticism now being leveled at SEIU wasn’t sincere.

  These charges “provide fuel” to union opponents, Smith told The Sacramento Bee, but stated that every union leader in the state “takes the responsibility of being a good steward of members’ funds very seriously.”

  “The way we fight back against politically motivated attacks is by continuing to show what a strong, unified labor movement accomplishes for working people,” he said.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/16/2021 – 20:30

• US Coal "Roars Back" Under Biden Unlike Trump 
  US Coal “Roars Back” Under Biden Unlike Trump 

  One of the biggest ironies to start this decade is the transition from fossil fuel generation to green energy has created a global energy crisis that is forcing the U.S., among many other countries, to restart coal-fired power plants monumentally ahead of the winter season in the Northern Hemisphere to prevent electricity shortages.

  The virtue-signaling assault by the green lobby spearheaded by hapless puppet Greta Thunberg must beside herself as U.S. power plants are on course to burn 23% more coal this year, the first increase since 2013, despite President Biden’s ambitious plan for a national grid to run on 100% clean energy by 2035. 

  A global energy crunch is rippling through the world amid a huge rebound for power. Natural gas has soared to record highs as supplies remain tight, and countries are finding out that renewable energy sources aren’t as reliable as previously thought. This has created a massive worldwide scramble by power companies for fossil fuels, especially coal. 

  U.S. utilities are transitioning to coal because soaring natural gas prices make it uneconomic to produce electricity. At the moment, 25% of all U.S. electricity produced is derived from coal-fired plants, up ten percentage points since the beginning of COVID. 

  

  “The markets have spoken,” Rich Nolan, the National Mining Association chief executive officer, told Bloomberg. “We’re seeing the essential nature of coal come roaring back.” The Energy Information Administration forecasts U.S. utilities are estimated to burn 536.9 million short tons of thermal coal, up from 436.5 million in 2020. 

  

  Ernie Thrasher, CEO of Xcoal Energy & Resources, the largest U.S. exporter of fuel, said demand for coal will remain robust well into 2022. Last week, he warned about domestic supply constraints and power companies already “discussing possible grid blackouts this winter.” 

  He said, “They don’t see where the fuel is coming from to meet demand,” adding that 23% of utilities are switching away from gas this fall/winter to burn more coal. There are not enough coal miners to rapidly increase mining output. 

  

   Kevin Book, managing director of research firm ClearView Energy Partners, said the decarbonization communication from Western governments would undoubtedly be challenged due to the energy crisis it has sparked. 

  “The goal of policy, if you listen to what’s being said in Western countries in the context of climate discussions, is not only to stop building new coal but to eliminate the existing capacity to burn coal,” Book said. “This is a moment in time when that idea is going to be challenged.”

  One thing Greta and the wealthy elite that likely fund her campaign to reeducate younger generations into believing the green energy transition will be seamless is that it won’t and may take decades.

  A pure-play coal company that is already benefiting from the demand surge and rising prices is Peabody Energy Corporation. As cooler weather fast approaches, the company may see increased demand for its thermal coal that utility companies use to produce electricity. On a technical basis, a so-called bullish “golden cross” was just triggered. 

  

  “Make Coal Great Again,” former President Trump used to tell crowds a few years back at rallies in West Virginia. We’re sure it’s boom times in the Appalachia hills. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/16/2021 – 20:00

• Interior Secretary Haaland Says Wind Turbines May Soon Line US Coasts
  Interior Secretary Haaland Says Wind Turbines May Soon Line US Coasts

  Authored by Nathan Worcester via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Speaking at a wind industry conference held by the American Clean Power Association, Secretary of the Interior Deb Haaland announced plans by the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) to arrange seven offshore lease sales along the U.S.’ coastlines by 2025, in line with the Biden administration’s executive order, “Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad,” which directed the Secretary of the Interior to “[double] offshore wind by 2030.”

  

  The proposed sites would include the coast of northern and central California, the coast of Oregon, the Gulf of Mexico, the Carolina Long Bay, the Central Atlantic, the New York Bight, and the Gulf of Maine.

  The American Clean Power Conference at which Secretary Haaland spoke also featured remarks from Sen. Ed Markey (D.-Mass.) and various wind industry insiders, and was sponsored by GE Renewable Energy, Siemens Gamesa, Shell, Vineyard Wind, and other firms with a financial stake in wind power.

  “The Interior Department is laying out an ambitious roadmap as we advance the Administration’s plans to confront climate change, create good-paying jobs, and accelerate the nation’s transition to a cleaner energy future,” Secretary Haaland said.

  “Together, we will meet our clean energy goals while addressing the needs of other ocean users and potentially impacted communities.”

  In their press release on the announcement, BOEM claimed it would use “the best available science as well as knowledge from ocean users and other stakeholders to minimize conflict with existing uses and marine life” while realizing the goal of adding another 30 gigawatts of offshore wind power by 2030.

  Yet some people, including WindAction Group director Lisa Linowes, argue that BOEM and other government agencies have not done enough to address the potential environmental impacts of wind energy projects along the country’s coasts.

  In an email exchange with The Epoch Times, Linowes highlighted a lawsuit against Vineyard Wind’s 800-megawatt wind energy project along Martha’s Vineyard.

  The lawsuit alleges that BOEM and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Marine Fisheries (NOAA/Fisheries) have not done enough to protect the endangered North Atlantic Right Whale from being harmed by the project.

  Offshore wind projects can also hinder commercial fishing, potentially violating the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act of 1953.

  While the Trump administration’s Interior Department released a memo in December 2020 asserting that the Act prevents offshore wind projects that unreasonably interfere with fishing, the Biden administration reversed that opinion in April 2021.

  “The Secretary’s obligations to provide for the ‘protection of the environment,’ the ‘prevention of waste,’ the ‘protection of national security interests of the United States,’ and the ‘fair return to the United States’ may weigh in favor of Secretarial actions to maximize low-emission and renewable electrical generation from offshore wind facilities, but, in some circumstances, the siting and operation of those facilities may not optimally provide for other ‘reasonable uses’ of the exclusive economic zone,” writes Robert Anderson, principal deputy solicitor of the Department of the Interior, whose publications as a law professor include research aimed at “protecting offshore areas from oil and gas leasing.”

  Linowes said, “The Biden [administration] is playing fast and loose with our laws in order to ram through an offshore wind industry. This is certain to produce more lawsuits and ultimately turn the public against these projects. The number of people living along the east coast that oppose these projects is growing rapidly.”

  “The risks to birds and bats are real. Fifteen miles off shore is not very far,” Linowes added.

  Asked what it will do to ensure its turbine capacity is not harmful to ocean life, bird populations, and fishermen, a DOI spokesperson told The Epoch Times via email that “BOEM continues to work with the fishing community, other federal agencies, Tribes, industry, conservation organizations, and other key ocean users and stakeholders to ensure that offshore energy development and the BOEM regulatory review process is informed by the data and information they provide, as well as the best available science and knowledge.”

  But Linowes voiced skepticism about the agency and industry’s commitment to working with fishermen and other stakeholders, stating that those groups “failed to achieve agreement with Vineyard Wind and other projects off the coasts of NJ and NY.”

  Asked about who would clean up old wind turbines and associated infrastructure, the DOI spokesperson responded that “lessees are responsible for the decommissioning of proposed projects at the end of their lease. This includes the removal or decommissioning of all facilities, projects, cables, and obstructions.”

  On Twitter, Haaland’s remarks were met with enthusiasm by some.

  “This has to be my favorite announcement to come out of #OffshoreWind21 so far! Many thanks to Secretary Deb Haaland for taking the trip. This has many implications for the #NewYork area, especially as regards #ports #infrastructure and electrical transmission,” said David Brezler, who describes himself on LinkedIn as a data analytics and project management professional currently working on offshore wind and other renewable energy projects.

  Others responded to the announcement by pointing out wind energy’s reliability and cost issues.

  While Biden’s Department of Energy has claimed that 30 gigawatts of additional wind power would “power 10 million homes,” intermittent power sources such as wind also require backup from natural gas or other reliable electricity sources when wind is not blowing, adding what are known as load balancing costs.

  In Germany, where wind power has rapidly expanded, energy prices for household consumers have risen to the highest in the European Union (EU), and are expected to spike this winter, in line with projections for the United States.

  Germany’s dependence on foreign energy sources, including Russia and other geopolitical rivals, is also high; in 2019, Germany relied on imports for 71 percent of its energy supply according to the Energy Information Administration, a slight decline from 2000, according to Deutsche Bank.

  “Wind farms can’t ‘combat’ climate change. Only fraudsters claim, and idiots believe such nonsense. All wind farms do is rip off ratepayers with pointlessly expensive and unreliable electricity,” said Steve Milloy, proprietor of JunkScience.com, who served on President Trump’s Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) transition team.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/16/2021 – 19:30

• Ethereum's Turn To Outshine Bitcoin Is Coming, UBS Says
  Ethereum’s Turn To Outshine Bitcoin Is Coming, UBS Says

  After a stellar start to the year, which saw its price soar to an all time high above $4,100, trouncing virtually all of its crypto peers, Ethereum has stagnated in recent weeks, with its place in the spotlight taken by bitcoin which whose impressive outperformance has been the result of now confirmed speculation that a bitcoin futures ETF is coming. It also meant that what has traditionally been a close correlation between the two larges cryptos has broken in favor of the larger peer; it would also suggest that ethereum is trading about $1000 cheap vs bitcoin.

  

  It wasn’t just bitcoin’s long-overdue ETF success: ETH was also put in the shade by DeFi- and NFT-driven demand for faster and cheaper blockchains since the late summer, according to UBS strategist James Malcolm. But in the bank’s latest Crypto Compass publication, Malcolm writes that this could soon change thanks to the progress with one of Ethereum’s prior Layer 2 solutions, Optimism.

  As UBS explains, “having been all but forgotten, it suddenly seems set to give leading competitor Arbitrum a run for its money. OVM 2.0 promises faster processing, cheaper gas prices and fewer code constraints, which should encourage smart contract deployment.” Furthermore, it has just been implemented on Ethereum’s testnet and is now scheduled to go mainnet-live in two weeks, on October 28.

  Of course, all of this pales in comparison to the ETH uplift that will take place once Ethereum 2.0 is ready for rollout. Some have speculated that the event will quickly trigger a quick doubling in the cryptocurrency which Goldman dubbed the “Amazon for information” (and is why Goldman also sees ETH eventually overtaking BTC).

  Data also show the recent rebound in active addresses on chain, offset by the small decline in total transfer volumes, which however can be attributed to the surge in whale trading in recent weeks (more below).

  

  A curious divergence also emerges when looking at exchange balances between BTC and ETH.

  

  But what appears most remarkable is the distribution of crypto strikes for bitcoin and ethereum, both of which are far above spot, suggesting that a major gamma squeeze may be on deck for both.

  

  Incidentally, speaking of ETH level 2, Bitcoin’s Lightning Network for smaller transactions has also been growing in anticipation of next month’s Taproot upgrade: year-to-date, the number of LN nodes and channels has doubled, and capacity nearly tripled.

  

  Incidentally, this does not mean that Bitcoin is set to drop, on the contrary.

  As UBS also writes, Bitcoin – which is now on the right side of $60k – is within striking distance of its April all time highs. Its latest rally came in two steps: October 1, which was put down to a Powell comment about having no intention to follow China in banning crypto, and October 6 when nearly $1.6bn of buy orders were reportedly executed within five minutes. Both occurred against a backdrop of big-name presenters at digital summits, rising speculation about imminent US ETF approval (which we now know has taken place), and pushback from the Senate Banking Committee’s ranking Republican against the Biden administration and Fed’s crystallizing plans to impose bank-like regulation on stablecoins. Pat Toomey’s point was this is something for Congress to decide and enact clarifying legislation, which would take more time. They helped trigger liquidations of short futures positions but left no footprint on bid-ask spreads, which barely budged in contrast to what we saw a month earlier.

  

  Not surprisingly, with Bitcoin steamrolling above $60K, bullish sentiment has become even more pronounced, attracting growing spot-futures basis arbitrage on the CME and pushing perpetual futures funding rates uniformly higher

  

  On-chain activity has also seen a major revival as BTC entity-adjusted transaction volumes overshot their early-2021 highs.

  

  What is most remarkable is that this is not at all small-time and retail investors setting the price: as the next chart from UBS shows, whales are in the driving seat to an almost unprecedented degree with the mean-to-median transaction size ratio is at its highest level since 2013.

  And speaking of whales, the bitcoin supply held by whales is now at the highest it has ever been at around 8mm coins (out of a total 21mm), while both exchanges and OTC desks have seen their holdings decline. Also notable, the collapse in bitcoin supply that was last active less than 3 months ago as increasingly more are truly HODLing.

  

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/16/2021 – 19:00

• Morgan Freeman Spurns "Defunding Police"; Says "Most Of Them Are Guys That Are Doing Their Job"
  Morgan Freeman Spurns “Defunding Police”; Says “Most Of Them Are Guys That Are Doing Their Job”

  Authored by Louise Bevan via The Epoch Times,

  Legendary American actor Morgan Freeman, while talking about his upcoming movie “The Killing Of Kenneth Chamberlain,” took the opportunity to express that he rejects the notion of “defunding the police.”

  While talking to Black Enterprise magazine’s Selena Hill in early October, the 84-year-old actor clarified, “I’m not the least bit for defunding the police. Police work is, aside from all the negativity around it, it is very necessary for us to have them, and most of them are guys that are doing their job.

  “They’re going about their day-to-day jobs,” he said.

  “I know some policemen who would never even pull their guns, except on a range.”

  

  Morgan Freeman speaks at the 26th Annual Critics Choice Awards on March 07, 2021. (Getty Images)

  Freeman’s latest film, “The Killing Of Kenneth Chamberlain,” is about the real fatal police shooting of an elderly black Marine vet with bipolar disorder in his home in White Plains, New York.

  Co-star Frankie Faison, playing Chamberlain, aligned with Freeman’s stance on police defunding while pointing out a discrepancy.

  “We as entertainment, people in the arts, we’re treated a little differently by law enforcement than people who are just ordinary walks of life,” he told Hill.

  “I would like for that to stop; I want us all to be treated equally.”

  In an Instagram post, Hill stated her contrary position as an “avid supporter of defunding the police,” but concurred with the actors that violence against African-Americans at the hand of police should end.

  While rejecting defunding, Freeman put his money where his mouth is to promote police reform, a movement he supports.

  In June, alongside University of Mississippi criminal justice professor Linda Keena, the actor donated $1 million to the university’s School of Applied Sciences for a research and specialized training center: the Center for Evidence-Based Policing and Reform.

  

  Freeman and Linda Keena attend the 2017 Breakthrough Prize at NASA Ames Research Center in Mountain View, California, on Dec. 4, 2016. (Kimberly White/Getty Images)

  “Look at the past year in our country, that sums it up,” Freeman said.

  “It’s time we are equipping police officers with training, and ensuring ‘law enforcement’ is not defined only as a gun and a stick.

  “I often talk to police officers when I see them out and ask how they would do their work if they didn’t have guns,” he added. “Support of this center is about finding ways to help officers, and arrive at solutions.”

  Keena agreed, “The goal should be to give officers as many tools as possible to do their jobs more effectively.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/16/2021 – 18:30

• Just How Big Is China's Property Sector, And Two Key Questions On Policy And Tail Risks
  Just How Big Is China’s Property Sector, And Two Key Questions On Policy And Tail Risks

  While the broader US stock market was giddily melting up in the past week, things in China were going from bad to worse with Evergrande set to officially be in default on Oct 23 when the grace period on its first nonpayment ends, and with contagion rocking the local property market – which as we explained last week just saw the most “catastrophic” property sales numbers since the global financial crisis – sending dollar-denominated Chinese junk bonds to all time high yields.

  

  So even though it is now conventional wisdom that China’s property crisis is contained (just as its concurrent energy crisis is also somehow contained), we beg to differ, and suggest that the crisis hitting the world’s largest asset class is only just starting and is about to drag China into a “hard landing”, with the world set to follow.

  

  And yes, with a total asset value of $62 trillion representing 62% of household wealth, the Chinese real estate sector is not only 30 times bigger than the market cap of all cryptos and also bigger than both the US bond and stock market, but is the key “asset” that backstops China’s entire financial system whose deposits at last check were more than double those of the US. In other words, if China’s property sector wobbles, the world is facing a guaranteed depression.

  

  So given the escalating weakness in China’s property sector, which has been in focus given intense regulatory pressure on developers’ leverage and banks’ mortgage exposure, and consequent contraction in sales and construction activity, it is natural to ask how significant a hit this could pose to both China’s and the global economy. To help people get a sense of scale, below we excerpts some of the key findings from a recent note from Goldman showing just how big China’s property sector is.

  1. A wide range of estimates for the scale of China’s property sector — up to about 30% of GDP — have been reported in the media and by other analysts. Different definitions of the scope of the sector largely account for the disparity.
  2. The most important distinctions are what types of building are included (residential, nonresidential, or all construction including infrastructure), what economic activity is included (only the construction itself, or all the value-added embedded in the finished residence e.g. domestically produced materials), and whether related real estate services are also included.
  3. A narrow definition of “residential construction activity as a share of GDP” could be as low as 3.6% of GDP. Expanding this to include all related domestic activities – e.g. materials like metals, wood, and stone produced domestically and used in housing construction, as well as services like financial activities and business services used directly or indirectly by the housing sector – would account for 12.4% of GDP. Adding nonresidential building construction and its associated activity would take it to 17.7%. Finally, including real estate services—which show a high correlation with broader property trends—would take the number to 23.3%. (All these numbers are based on detailed 2018 data, and exclude infrastructure spending not directly related to residential and nonresidential buildings.)
  4. The property sector’s share of the Chinese economy has grown fairly steadily over the past decade, after surging in the stimulus-fueled recovery just after the 2008 financial crisis.

  Digging into the definition of the “property sector”, there are three main questions that need to be kept in mind:

  1. What types of construction? One important difference is in what types of construction activities are included. Construction broadly consists of three categories: residential housing, nonresidential buildings, and infrastructure-related construction. In China, residential construction appears to be about half of total construction—the rest is either non-residential building construction or civil engineering works, plus a small amount of installation/decoration activity. Specifically, residential and nonresidential buildings represent around 70% of total construction, and residential floor space under construction is typically about 70% of total floor space under construction.

  Note that this ~50% share for residential share of total construction is not unusual in international perspective. For example, the residential share is similar in the United States—though it reached into the 60-70% range during the peak years of the housing bubble—and has been about 40-50% in South Korea for some time.

  2. What types of economic activity (only construction, or everything necessary to complete the finished building)? An even more important distinction is what types of activities one counts. Strictly speaking, the construction industry itself represents about 7% of China’s GDP. This represents wages, profits, and taxes from the construction sector (regardless of what type of construction or what end users). This is the value added of the construction sector itself, or the narrowly defined activity of building things.

  However, the construction industry uses a lot of output from other sectors – both materials (cement, wood, steel, etc.) and services (transportation of materials, financial services) to create finished buildings. Put another way, there are a lot of “backward linkages” from the construction sector: a home purchase requires not just the value added from construction industry, but also the value added from the “upstream” industries that provided the materials and were otherwise involved in the completion of the finished product.

  To gain some intuition for this, in the chart below, Goldman shows how much of each industry’s domestic value added ultimately goes into “final demand” of the construction industry (purchases of property by consumers or investment in property by businesses). For example, about one-third of value added in “wood products” goes into construction, about one-half of basic metals value added goes into construction, and essentially all of construction’s value added goes into construction final demand. (Note that this includes direct and indirect requirements—for example, basic metal output that is sold to firms in the metal fabrication industry that then sell to the construction sector would be counted as part of final demand for construction.)

  

  The next chart shows what fraction of the final demand for construction is provided by each sector. Roughly speaking, if we think about this as “the total domestic value added embedded in an apartment”, almost 30% of this is provided by construction activity, 8% from nonmetallic mineral products, etc.

  

  From the perspective of total domestic value added from all industries embedded in the final demand of the construction industry, the overall construction industry’s final demand accounts for roughly one-quarter of China’s GDP. This estimate is based on China’s most recent (2018) “input-output” table—which indicates the final output of each industry, as well as how much input is used from every other.

  3. Should real estate services be included. Some analysts focus on property construction only, while others add the “real estate services” sector e.g. the leasing and maintenance of buildings when estimating the impact of the housing sector of the economy. These activities contribute roughly 6-7% of GDP in China. In many countries, real estate services are somewhat less volatile than housing construction. The likely reason is that real estate services relate in part to the stock of existing buildings than the flow of new building construction. Even if there were a housing crash and building construction stopped, most real estate services could theoretically continue.  As evidence of this, in the US housing crash, construction sector GDP fell by ~30% peak to trough but real estate services never declined. That said, in China the “real estate services” sector has been significantly more volatile, almost as volatile as the construction sector itself.

  Contributions by type of demand and activity

  Taking these three factors into consideration, Goldman next shows estimated shares of China’s activity in the next chart, and breaks down construction into its main components while showing the share attributable to real estate services. The “sector activity” column shows the share of GDP accounted for directly by activities of that sector. In other words, companies and workers engaged in all types of construction activity accounted for 7.1% of China’s GDP in 2018. The “final demand” column shows the share of GDP accounted for by all the domestic economic activities embodied in final demand for that sector. In other words, the demand for buildings and other construction also generates demand for materials and other types of services — and adding the value added in construction and all of these “upstream” sectors together gives the numbers in the right column

  

  Putting the above together, the size of China’s property sector therefore depends on the question we want to answer:

  • What share of Chinese economic activity do workers/companies involved in residential construction represent? Here, one should look at domestic value-added (the left column). This is 7.1% for overall construction and just 3.6% for residential construction only.
  • How much economic activity is driven by demand for residential property construction? Residential property demand drives 12.4% of GDP (right column, second row in table), because in addition to the construction activity it creates demand for all the materials and other services involved in building construction.
  • What about the impact of total demand for property construction? Including non-residental buildings as well as residential, and the total upstream requirements of both, we want to look at the “domestic value added in final demand” of construction of residential + nonresidential buildings. This is 17.7% of GDP (12.4%+5.3%).
  • How much of the economy is at risk from a property downturn? Here, we could potentially add end demand for real estate services to the above calculation. This would be another 5.6% of GDP, suggesting 23.3% of the economy—nearly a quarter—would be affected.

  Finally, if one adds all construction and all real estate and all their associated activities, we get just over 30% of the economy (24.5%+5.6%), although it is worth caveating that this may be an overly broad definition for the property sector, as it includes infrastructure-related activity, which if anything is likely to be ramped up by policymakers in the event of severe property sector weakness.

  * * *

  Yet even a nice big, round 30% estimate for how much China’s property sector contributes to GDP, does not encompass all the potential spillovers from a construction sector downturn. There are at least three others:

  1. Second-round effects. A shock to construction (or any other sector) implies a drop in wages and company profits in that sector. This in turn implies lower income for the household and business sectors — and incrementally lower consumption and investment respectively. Such “second-round” or “multiplier” effects aren’t included in the estimates above.
  2. Fiscal spillovers. Land sales represent an important part of local government revenues in China (roughly 1/3 in gross revenue terms). Governments acquire land usage rights from rural occupants and sell them at a premium via auctions to developers. If land sales revenues fall because of a housing downturn (through some combination of fewer successful auctions and/or lower land prices), budgets will be squeezed, which could limit local governments’ spending and investment.
  3. Spillovers abroad via imports. As the world’s largest trading nation, China does not get all of its construction materials and other intermediate inputs domestically. In addition to the estimates above, which focus on domestic value-added, about 11% of the total value added embedded in China’s construction final demand is from foreign sources. (This is about 3% of China’s GDP, although it makes more sense to look at each trading partner’s exposure relative to the size of its own economy.) So, if we wanted to look at the total size of China’s construction sector in terms of driving economic activity, regardless of where that economic activity occurs (perhaps to compare China’s construction sector to other countries with different levels of import intensity) the figure in the top right cell in Exhibit 3 would be 3% larger.

  Putting it all together, and China’s property sector emerges as the mother of all ticking financial time bombs.

  * * *

  Which brings us to what is Beijing’s latest policy action (if any) to prevent this potential financial nuke from going off, and what are any additional tail risks to be considered.

  Well, as noted above, China’s property sector began the week with sharp price falls across the board, with China’s junk bonds cratering to near all time lows and with signs that the concerns are spilling over to the broader China credit market with spreads widening across the board. Some key updates:

  • Recent news suggest China property stresses are building up. A number of China property HY developers have made announcements over recent weeks regarding their upcoming bond maturities.
  • On 11 Oct, Modern Land launched a consent solicitation to extend the maturity on its USD 250mn bond due on 25 Oct by 3 months
  • Xinyuan Real Estate announced on 14 Oct that the majority of holders of its USD 229mn bond due on 15 Oct have agreed to an exchange offer. Note that Fitch considers both transactions to be distressed exchanges.
  • Furthermore, Sinic announced on 11 Oct that they are not expecting to make the principal and interest payments on its USD 250mn bond due on 18 Oct. These indicate that stresses amongst developers are building.

  Meanwhile, the grace period on Evergrande’s missed coupon payments is ending soon. Evergrande missed coupon payments of USD 148MM on 11 Oct. This came after missing an earlier coupon payment on 23 Sep. The earlier missed coupon has a 30-day grace period, which ends on 23 Oct, and should that not be remedied in the coming week, the company will be in default on this bond. With Evergrande USD bonds priced at around 20, a potential default is unlikely to have large market impact, though if the company is able to remedy the earlier default, this could provide a positive surprise for the market.

  Despite these mounting risks, the market staged a sharp rebound at the end of the week, with news emerging that policymakers are seeking to speed up mortgage approvals (if not followed by much more aggressive easing, this step will do nothing but delay the inevitable by a few days).

  And while Goldman’s China credit strateigst Kenneth Ho writes overnight that valuation is cheap across the lower rated segments within China property HY, market direction hinges on whether they will be able to refinance and avoid defaults. In particular, he notes that with $6.2bn of China property HY bonds maturing in Jan 2022, policy direction in the coming two months will be key. And since Goldman remains in the dark as to what Beijing will do next, as it remains “difficult to foresee how policy developments will play out in the coming weeks”, Goldman prefers to wait for clearer signs of policy turn before shifting lower down the credit spectrum.

  * * *

  This brings us to what Goldman calls two key questions on China property – policy and tail risks, which will dictate the direction of the China property HY market.

  As discussed in depth in recent days, Beijing’s tight regulatory stance is increasingly affecting a broader set of developers, as slowing activity levels are adding to worries across China property HY. For the period from early August to the first week of October, the volume of land transactions cratered by 42.5% compared with the same period last year, and for property transaction volume, this fell by 27.0%.

  Difficult credit conditions and weak presales add pressure to developers’ cash flows, and these factors are what led to the pick up in defaults and stresses in China property HY. Therefore, unless there are clear signs of an easing in policy direction, Goldman warns that tail risks concerns are unlikely to subside, and these will dictate the direction of China property HY market. As noted by Goldman’s China economics team, credit supply holds the key to China’s housing outlook in the near term, emphasizing the need for policy adjustments in order to stabilize the housing market. Incidentally, the latest monthly Chinese credit creation numbers showed a modest miss to expectations, as total TSF flows came in at 2.928TN, just below the 3.050TN consensus, and up 10.1% Y/Y, lower than the 10.3% in August (the silver lining is that M2 rose 8.3%, up from 8.2% in August and above the 8.2% consensus).

  

  That said, given the sharp slowdown in residential property activity levels over the past two months, policy stance appears to have relaxed over the past two weeks if somewhat more slowly than most had expected. The table below summarizes a number of policy announcements and news reports that suggest some easing of policies are taking place.

  

  That said, the announcements and policymakers’ statements do not signal a large shift in overall policy direction yet. For example, the more concrete measures such as home buyer subsidies and the reduction in home loan interest rates are conducted at a city, and not national, level. And whilst Bloomberg reported that the financial regulators have informed a number of major banks to accelerate mortgage approvals, the precise details are lacking. The recent actions are therefore mostly in line with the overall policy stance. On one hand, policymakers remain focused on the medium term goal of deleveraging, and will want to avoid over-stimulating and reflating the property sector; on the other hand, policymakers have stated that they want a stable property market and to avoid systemic risks from emerging, suggesting that they would seek to avoid over-tightening. The problem is that they can’t have both, and one will eventually have to crack.

  Goldman is somewhat more optimistic and writes that finding a balance will take time, adding that “given the need to balance the competing policy objectives, further measures could continue to emerge piecemeal, and visibility on the timing and the type of policy actions are limited.” Furthermore, there may need to be further downside risk towards the property sector before we see a more decisive change in direction in the policy stance. This means that tail risks concerns are unlikely to subside, despite signs that policy direction is gradually shifting.

  * * *

  Assuming help does not come on time, the next key question is how fat is the tail as large amounts of bonds trading at stressed levels. Currently, the China property market is pricing in elevated levels of stress. Their price distribution is shown below indicating that 38% of bonds (by notional outstanding and excluding defaulted bonds) are trading at a price below 70, and 49% of bonds are below a price of 80.

  

  Are market prices overly bearish on tail risk, or are they accurately reflecting the stresses amongst property developers? With policymakers likely to maintain their medium term goal to delever the property sector, it is unlikely that tail risk concerns for higher levered developers will not subside. However, how “fat” the tail is will depend on the policy stance over the next two months.

  A big challenge going forward is that there are sizeable bond maturities in the next year, which will heavily influence tail risk. As noted above, a number of developers have conducted or are seeking to complete distressed buybacks, and defaults rates amongst China property HY companies are soaring. As such, the policy stance in the next two months will be critical.

  As shown in Exhibit 2, China property HY bond maturities are relatively light for the remainder of 2021, but pick up substantially in 2022, with USD 6.3bn of bonds maturing in January alone!

  

  A full list of bond maturities from now to February 2022, is shown below.

  

  It goes without saying, that should policy easing over the next two months be insufficient to ease the financial conditions amongst developers, there could potentially be a meaningful pick up in credit stresses at the start of 2022 just as the Fed launches its taper and just as a cold winter sends energy costs to unprecedented levels.

  Finally, for any investors seeking some exposure to China’s HY market assuming that the worst is now over, Goldman agrees that while valuation is cheap across the lower rated segments within China property HY, the key determinant on market direction won’t be valuation, but rather hinges on whether developers will be able to refinance and avoid defaults – i.e., can the Ponzi scheme continue.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/16/2021 – 18:00

• North American Crane Count Decrease Signals Growing Uncertainty
  North American Crane Count Decrease Signals Growing Uncertainty

  By Zachary Phillips of ConstructionDive

  Summary:

  • Rider Levett Bucknall’s Crane Count decreased by 4.5% from Q1 to Q3 2021. The index measures the number of fixed cranes across cities in the U.S. and Canada, as a representation of the active construction workload in those cities.

  • Of the 14 cities measured, only three — Los Angeles, San Francisco and Toronto — saw an increase in the number of cranes in that period.

  • Five of the cities — Chicago, Denver, Las Vegas, Phoenix and Portland — saw what RLB called a “significant decrease” in the number of cranes; dropping by 30% or more.

  

  The dip in Q3 comes after a spike in Q1 of 2021, which also followed a decrease in the crane count. Toronto has continued to tower over U.S. cities when it comes to the total number of cranes.

  One thing connects all the cities, RLB’s report said: uncertainty, which remains significant to construction everywhere. Commercial cranes are down collectively 36% — or 20 cranes — across North American cities.

  “We anticipate better times ahead with previously delayed projects being brought back online,” the report said. “However, this is conditional upon market conditions as the AEC industry continues to experience the effects of COVID-19.”

  

  The most popular sectors for crane usage were mixed-use and residential. In Los Angeles, RLB counted 25 cranes for mixed-use and 12 for residential projects. In Toronto, those numbers were 47 and 133, respectively.

  Other findings from the report include:

  • A 40% increase of cranes used in the education construction sector.
  • Los Angeles saw the highest percentage increase from Q1 to Q3, by 19%.
  • The number of cranes in Toronto increased by 81% when compared to Q3 2020.

  Here are some of the highlights for U.S. cities:

  Los Angeles: The second most populous city in the U.S. saw its second straight report with an increase in the number of cranes, jumping from 43 to 51. The growth can likely be attributed to an increase in major transportation projects in the city, RLB said. The number of cranes on commercial projects have declined, in addition to a dip in the hospitality sector, but there has been a spike in demand for residential construction.

  San Francisco: The number of cranes in San Francisco grew by two from Q1 to Q3, but 10 new cranes have been erected within the last six months, RLB said, as some projects leave and others arrive. Most of the new cranes are for residential projects, which has seen an increase in demand, though others are for mixed-use and industrial projects. 

  Chicago: In January of 2017, RLB counted 56 cranes in Chicago. A steady, though not constant, decline in those numbers led to only seven counted cranes in Q3 of 2021. This, however, is due to a large number of projects downtown topping off and now leasing to new renters. The number of cranes is not anticipated to increase in the near future, RLB reported.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/16/2021 – 17:30

• Trump Favored To Win 2024 Among Top UK Betting Houses
  Trump Favored To Win 2024 Among Top UK Betting Houses

  Former President Donald Trump is favored to win the 2024 US election, according to UK-based betting exchange Ladbrokes sportsbook, as well as London-based Smarkets.

  

  As the Las Vegas Review-Journal notes, Trump surpassed Joe Biden last week – with Smarkets giving the former US president a 20% chance (4-1 odds) of winning in 2024 vs. Biden’s odds of winning at 19% and VP Kamala Harris’ odds at 13%.

  “It’s a pretty staggering development to find a defeated one-term president taking over as favorite from the incumbent who beat him, but we know by now that Donald Trump is no ordinary politician,” said Smarkets head of political markets, Matthew Shaddick. “It’s early days, but the latest market signals suggest there is every chance we could be heading for a Biden vs. Trump rematch in 2024 with Trump currently having a very slight edge, according to the betting.”

  At Ladbrokes, Trump is a +350 favorite over Biden (also 4-1 odds), and Harris 5-1.

  Trump’s odds of becoming the 2024 GOP nominee stand at 45%, according to Smarkets.

  “Trump’s odds have been improving all year and in particular since Biden’s poll ratings began declining this summer,” said Shaddick, adding “There is absolutely no sign of Republican voters deserting him, and he leads every primary poll by a distance.

  “Many forecasters had predicted that health or legal issues might stop Trump from re-election, but the latest Smarkets prices imply that there is a two-in-three chance he’ll run for the White House again in three years’ time.”

  At London’s Betfair, however, Biden is favored over Trump (4-1) while Harris stands at 5-1.

  As the Review-Journal notes, wagering on the election isn’t permitted at US sportsbooks – however “At offshore books that operate illegally in the U.S., Trump is the +275 favorite over Biden (+325) and Harris (5-1) at BetOnline and the 3-1 favorite over Biden (+325) and Harris (5-1) at SportsBetting.ag.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/16/2021 – 17:00

• Investors Rush To Buy Nearly 1 In 4 Homes
  Investors Rush To Buy Nearly 1 In 4 Homes

  Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

  Investors are buying huge percentages of existing home sales…

  

  Corelogic reports Single-Family Investor Activity Surges in the Second Quarter.

  Large investors (those who retain 100 or more properties) are largely responsible for this rise.

  Of all investor purchases made in June 2021, 20% were made by large investors. This is much higher than 11% in 2020 or 14% in 2019.

  Small investors (those who retain between 3 and 10 properties), have declined slightly and now account for less than half of investor purchases at 46% in June.

  Mid-sized investors (those who retain 11-99 properties) have stayed constant, oscillating around 35% percent in the past 30 months.

  The pandemic seemed to drive away large investors, but they are now making up their largest share of investor purchases seen in the past decade.

  

  If you have been outbid on a home there’s nearly a 1 in 4 chance it was to an investor or group of investors.

  *  *  *

  Like these reports? If so, please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

   

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/16/2021 – 16:30

• Texas Guardsmen Shot At By Heavily Armed Cartel Gunmen At Border 
  Texas Guardsmen Shot At By Heavily Armed Cartel Gunmen At Border 

  Heavily armed drug cartels are becoming more aggressive along the Texas-Mexico border amid President Biden’s immigration crisis. Last week, Fox News’ Bill Melugin captured cartel members shooting over Texas Guardsmen stationed at an observation post. Now Melugin says cartel members are shooting “at Texas National Guard soldiers.” 

  The latest incident occurred Thursday night in Roma, Texas, when suspected cartel members fired “two shots across the border at Texas National Guard soldiers,” according to Melugin. He said this is “the same area where cartel gunmen have been seen taunting the soldiers in recent days.” 

  BREAKING: Two shots were fired from across the border at Texas National Guard soldiers in Roma, TX yesterday by suspected cartel gunmen. It happened in the same area where cartel gunmen have been seen taunting the soldiers in recent days. Texas Rangers investigating. @FoxNews pic.twitter.com/F3SNI6GiAE

  — Bill Melugin (@BillFOXLA) October 15, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The Fox News reporter tweeted a video of suspected cartel members firing machine guns over a National Guard observation last week. 

  It is also in the same area where we witnessed tracers from a suspected cartel machine gun being fired into the U.S. over a National Guard observation post while we were embedded with them last week. @FoxNews pic.twitter.com/uZxUfR6DcE

  — Bill Melugin (@BillFOXLA) October 15, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The Texas Department of Public Safety (DPS) said, “two shots were fired across the border from Mexico into Texas, “believed to be aimed at Texas National Guard personnel.” They stated, “Texas Rangers responded to the scene” and confirmed “no injuries,” adding that an “investigation into this incident” is underway. 

  Responding to DPS’ statement published on Facebook, many users were disgusted how “sleepy Joe Biden’s world” is falling apart. Some suggested Guardsmen and all law enforcement fired upon by cartel members should “shoot back.” Others said this is an “act of war.” 

  “Force should be met with force, you do not have to wait until the bullet hits you to protect yourself, it is called Self Defense!” someone said. 

  Another said, “they need a reaper drone out there.” 

  While the Biden administration seemingly ignores the border crisis, Texas Governor Greg Abbot has continued increasing Guardsmen along the border as he warns of “increased caravans attempting to cross the border caused by Biden’s open border policy.”

  The latest leg down in Biden’s polling data may be derived from all the bad press surrounding the border crisis. 

  

  Biden’s choice to ignore the southern border crisis has been a godsend for Republicans ahead of the 2022 midterms, who can now use the immigration angle to highlight how the president was ill-prepared. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/16/2021 – 16:00

• NYC Judge Prevents Father From Visiting His Daughter Unless He Gets Vaccinated
  NYC Judge Prevents Father From Visiting His Daughter Unless He Gets Vaccinated

  Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

  A judge in New York City has blocked a father’s right to see his three-year-old daughter unless he agrees to take the COVID-19 vaccine.

  

  Yes, really.

  In early September, Evan Schein, an attorney acting on behalf of the mother in the couple’s divorce case (the family has not been named), raised concerns about the father’s vaccination status, leading high profile judge Judge Matthew Cooper to suspend his visitation rights until he received the jab.

  According to Cooper, the father needs to submit to the shot because it has become a prerequisite “to participate meaningfully in everyday society.”

  “The dangers of voluntarily remaining unvaccinated during access with a child while the COVID-19 virus remains a threat to children’s health and safety cannot be understated,” said the judge.

  “Unfortunately, and to my mind, incomprehensibly, a sizable minority, seizing upon misinformation, conspiracy theories, and muddled notions of ‘individual liberty,’ have refused all entreaties to be vaccinated,” he added.

  The father’s only other option is to pay for expensive PCR tests every week in addition to taking a biweekly antigen test within 24 hours of his every other weekend visits.

  The ruling was praised by the mother’s attorney, who called it “an incredibly important one that highlights the extraordinary times we are living in and reinforces that a child’s best interests are paramount.”

  New York City judge STOPS Long Island father from visiting his three-year-old daughter in Manhattan unless he gets the shot or has weekly COVID-19 tests
  via https://t.co/Ggez6clg1M https://t.co/vjFbA2NZ9e

  — Samantha DelVecchio (@SamanthaDelVec1) October 15, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  However, Lloyd Rosen, the father’s attorney, warned that the ruling sets a terrible precedent.

  “My client is not a conspiracy theorist,” Rosen said.

  “He has concerns about the vaccine. He’s heard about side effects. He once had a bad reaction to a flu vaccine.”

  “This judge must feel that 80 million Americans who aren’t vaccinated are placing their children at imminent risk or harm and, therefore, the courts should intervene and remove those children from their parents,” he added.

  “This is an absurd position to take.”

  The father has previously been infected with COVID-19, meaning he has antibodies that offer him far greater protection than the vaccine, but that isn’t even being taken into account.

  As we previously highlighted, patients who are in urgent need of life-saving organ transplants are now being denied treatment due to their refusal to take the vaccine.

  As we warned all along, the agenda behind mandatory vaccination schemes is to make life a living hell for refusniks who don’t comply, while maintaining all along that the vaccine isn’t “mandatory.”

  We are now hurtling full throttle towards a Chinese-style social credit score system where basic functions of living are denied to those who choose to exercise their bodily autonomy.

  *  *  *

  Brand new merch now available! Get it at https://www.pjwshop.com/

  In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch. I need you to sign up for my free newsletter here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown. Get early access, exclusive content and behinds the scenes stuff by following me on Locals.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/16/2021 – 15:30

• Working-Poor Still Use Food Banks As Millions Had Their Savings Wiped Out During COVID  
  Working-Poor Still Use Food Banks As Millions Had Their Savings Wiped Out During COVID  

  Eighteen months since the virus pandemic began, hunger and food insecurity continue to plague millions of households across the country. Some of these folks have had their life savings drained with no financial safety net for the next crisis. 

  Compound food insecurity and deterioration of financial conditions of households, and it appears the working-poor have barely recovered from the pandemic downturn. What’s likely to happen is the Biden administration will continue handing out free money to these folks to prevent social upheaval. An example of this was when Biden increased SNAP allowances by a quarter a few months ago. 

  First, let’s talk about food banks and their current state. Katie Fitzgerald, COO of Feeding America, a nonprofit organization that oversees a nationwide network of 200 food banks feeding more than 46 million people, told AP News that despite the decreasing numbers of households reliant on food banks. Today’s numbers remain 55% above pre-pandemic levels “We’re worried (food insecurity) could increase all over again if too many shoes drop,” she said.

  

  The next is a new NPR poll that finds almost 20% of U.S. households had their savings wiped out during the pandemic. The share of respondents who made $50k or less was about 30%. 

  Avenel Joseph, a vice president at the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, said many used their savings to cover basic expenses and survive as tens of millions were laid off during the pandemic. “When crisis hits, or anything goes out of the norm—your child is sick, for example—you are sacrificing wages,” she said. About 66% of households earning $50k or less had difficulty pay rent, feeding their family, and covering medical bills. 

  Countless times we have described the disparity between the people who hold assets and those who don’t. The gap in wealth inequality surged even wider, already at emergency levels before the pandemic, after the Federal Reserve pumped trillions of dollars in liquidity into financial markets to boost asset prices higher, such as stocks, bonds, homes, art, classic cars, wine, and crypto. Those who owned nothing were the worst off. 

  

  The age-old question for the Biden administration: How will they elevate those stuck in poverty? Keep handing out free money and disincentivizing people not to work?

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/16/2021 – 15:00

• Win For Virginia Parents After Loudon County School Board Member Announces Resignation
  Win For Virginia Parents After Loudon County School Board Member Announces Resignation

  Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Embattled Loudoun County, Virginia, School Board member Beth Barts, who was the subject of a recall petition, announced Friday that she will resign from her position in November.

  “This was not an easy decision or a decision made in haste. After much thought and careful consideration, it is the right decision for me and my family,” Barts said in a statement on Facebook.

  “Please accept this letter as my formal resignation from the Loudoun County School Board effective November 2, 2021.”

  

  The Epoch Times has contacted the Loudoun County School Board for comment. The Loudon County Public School system also confirmed her resignation on Friday, saying it will start the process of filling the Leesburg District seat.

  “I want to thank Board Member Barts for her service to the Leesburg District,” School Board Chair Brenda L. Sheridan said in a statement.

  “The School Board will announce its process for filling the Leesburg seat at its October 26 meeting and anticipates filling this position at its December 14 meeting.”

  Last week, a Virginia judge denied Barts’ motion to dismiss a Loudon County parents’ organization’s petition to recall her before also removing Loudoun County Commonwealth’s Attorney Buta Biberaj from the case. The decision represented a victory for opponents of critical race theory, a quasi-Marxist ideology that is the center of a culture war that’s going on across the United States.

  The group Fight For Schools and other organizations alleged that Barts was involved in a private Facebook group that violated the School Board’s Code of Conduct and local laws after the page’s members allegedly tried to attempt to reveal private information about—or doxx—parents as well as opponents of critical race theory and similar ideologies.

  Asra Nomani, vice president of strategy and investigation for Parents Defending Education and a key opponent against critical race theory being taught in schools, hailed the announcement that Barts will be resigning.

  “The first domino falls,” Nomani wrote to her 66,000 Twitter followers. “This will not save her from investigations into her corruption,” she added.

  School Board Vice Chairwoman Atoosa Reaser said in March that Barts repeatedly violated the school board’s code of conduct. Responding to allegations that she was part of a Facebook group that tried to doxx parents, Barts said earlier this year that “it’s not my job to be liked. It’s my job to ask hard questions, work to provide the best education for our kids, make sure our teachers are paid what they really deserve, and represent the people of Leesburg.”

  Barts’ resignation comes just days after the Department of Justice announced it was tasking FBI agents and U.S. attorneys to discuss strategies to address alleged threats against school administrators, teachers, and board members. The move has drawn significant condemnation from Republican lawmakers and officials, who alleged the agency is now treating concerned parents as political enemies.

  Barts’ resignation announcement also came after the father of a 15-year-old girl who attends a Loudon County high school told news outlets that his daughter was sexually assaulted by an unnamed boy in the bathroom. Scott Smith, the father, suggested that the boy allegedly exploited left-wing school bathroom policies around gender.

  Smith announced plans to sue the school district this week.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/16/2021 – 14:30

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• Bovard: When Barack Obama Got Away With Murder
  Bovard: When Barack Obama Got Away With Murder

  Authored by Jim Bovard via The Libertarian Institute,

  This week (Thursday) marked the 10th anniversary of the drone killing of Abdulrahman Al-Aulaqi, a 16 year old born in Colorado and killed in Yemen. He perished as part of Obama’s crackdown on terrorist suspects around the world. His father, who was also an American citizen, was killed two weeks earlier by another drone strike ordered by Obama.

  I wrote a piece condemning Obama’s assassination program for Christian Science Monitor in 2011,  “Assassination Nation: Are There Any Limits on President Obama’s License to Kill?” I derided the Obama administration’s claim that the president possessed a “right to kill Americans without a trial, without notice, and without any chance for targets to legally object…Killings based solely on presidential commands radically transform the relation of the government to the citizenry.”

  

  Readers responded by calling for my assassination. My article mentioned an American Civil Liberties Union lawsuit pressuring the Obama administration “to disclose the legal standard it uses to place US citizens on government kill lists.” 

  “Will R.” was indignant: “We need to send Bovard and the ACLU to Iran. You shoot traders and the ACLU are a bunch of traders.” (I was pretty sure the ACLU was not engaged in international commerce). “Jeff” took the high ground: “Hopefully there will soon be enough to add James Bovard to the [targeted killing] list.” Another commenter—self-labeled as “Idiot Savant”—saw a grand opportunity: “Now if we can only convince [Obama] to use this [assassination] authority on the media, who have done more harm than any single terror target could ever dream of…”

  Here’s a riff I did on Obama’s assassination program in 2013:

  The Obama administration yesterday leaked out its confidential legal paper on killing Americans to NBC News. Obama’s legal wizards decided that the Fifth Amendment’s pledge that no citizen shall “be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law” is invalid in cases of imminent attack by terrorists.

  Though this might sound reasonable, the memo proceeds to craft a totally bogus notion of “imminent.” But, as John Glaser notes at Antiwar.com, “The memo refers to what it calls a ‘broader concept of imminence’ than what has traditionally been required, like actual intelligence an ongoing plot against the US. ‘The condition that an operational leader present an ‘imminent’ threat of violent attack against the United States does not require the United States to have clear evidence that a specific attack on U.S. persons and interests will take place in the immediate future,’ the memo states, contradicting conventional international law.”

  Obama top adviser Robert Gibbs had said the 16-year old should have had “a more responsible father” when asked directly about the assassination by drone…

  In a January 2017 USA Today piece, I urged Trump to open the files on Obama’s killings:

  “Trump should quickly reveal the secret memos underlying Obama’s “targeted killing” drone assassination program.

  Administration lawyers defeated lawsuits by the ACLU, The New York Times, and others seeking disclosure of key legal papers on how the president became judge, jury and executioner. A Trump administration could disclose the memos and white papers without endangering anything other than the reputation of the soon-to-be former president and his policymakers.

  Didn’t happen. The Trump administration could have exposed vast numbers of abuses by the Obama administration the same way that Obama (partially) opened the files on some of President George W. Bush’s torture policy and other atrocities. But as usual, the Trump team blew the opportunity.

  As a result, Obama can pirouette as a champion of civil liberties while the horrendous precedents he set continue to endanger Americans and anyone else in the world in the vicinity of people suspected of bad thoughts by the U.S. government.

  Hat tip to Dan Alban, an Institute of Justice lawyer who has scourged the Justice Department, IRS, and plenty of other government agencies.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/15/2021 – 23:50

• Tracking Global Hunger & Food Insecurity
  Tracking Global Hunger & Food Insecurity

  Hunger is still one the biggest – and most solvable – problems in the world.

  Every day, as Visual Capitalist’s Bruno Venditti notes, more than 700 million people (8.8% of the world’s population) go to bed on an empty stomach, according to the UN World Food Programme (WFP).

  The WFP’s HungerMap LIVE displayed here tracks core indicators of acute hunger like household food consumption, livelihoods, child nutritional status, mortality, and access to clean water in order to rank countries.

  After sitting closer to 600 million from 2014 to 2019, the number of people in the world affected by hunger increased during the COVID-19 pandemic.

  

  In 2020, 155 million people (2% of the world’s population) experienced acute hunger, requiring urgent assistance.

  The Fight to Feed the World

  The problem of global hunger isn’t new, and attempts to solve it have making headlines for decades.

  On July 13, 1985, at Wembley Stadium in London, Prince Charles and Princess Diana officially opened Live Aid, a worldwide rock concert organized to raise money for the relief of famine-stricken Africans.

  The event was followed by similar concerts at other arenas around the world, globally linked by satellite to more than a billion viewers in 110 nations, raising more than $125 million ($309 million in today’s dollars) in famine relief for Africa.

  But 35+ years later, the continent still struggles. According to the UN, from 12 countries with the highest prevalence of insufficient food consumption in the world, nine are in Africa.

  

   

  Approximately 30 million people in Africa face the effects of severe food insecurity, including malnutrition, starvation, and poverty.

   

  Wasted Leftovers

  Although many of the reasons for the food crisis around the globe involve conflicts or environmental challenges, one of the big contributors is food waste.

  According to the United Nations, one-third of food produced for human consumption is lost or wasted globally. This amounts to about 1.3 billion tons of wasted food per year, worth approximately $1 trillion.

  All the food produced but never eaten would be sufficient to feed two billion people. That’s more than twice the number of undernourished people across the globe. Consumers in rich countries waste almost as much food as the entire net food production of sub-Saharan Africa each year.

  Solving Global Hunger

  While many people may not be “hungry” in the sense that they are suffering physical discomfort, they may still be food insecure, lacking regular access to enough safe and nutritious food for normal growth and development.

  Estimates of how much money it would take to end world hunger range from $7 billion to $265 billion per year.

  But to tackle the problem, investments must be utilized in the right places. Specialists say that governments and organizations need to provide food and humanitarian relief to the most at-risk regions, increase agricultural productivity, and invest in more efficient supply chains.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/15/2021 – 23:30

• The Science Of Propaganda Is Still Being Developed And Advanced
  The Science Of Propaganda Is Still Being Developed And Advanced

  Authored by Caitlin Johnstone via Medium.com,

  We live in a far less free society than most of us think.

  

  It looks like we’re free. We don’t get thrown in prison for criticizing our government officials. We can vote for whoever we want. We can log onto the internet and look up information on any subject we’re interested in. If we want to buy a product we have many brands we are free to choose from.

  But we’re not free. Our political systems are set up to herd people into a two-party system that is controlled on both sides by plutocrats. The news media that people rely on to form ideas about what’s going on and how they should vote are controlled by the plutocratic class and heavily influenced by secretive government agencies. Internet algorithms are aggressively manipulated to show people information which favors the status quo. Even our entertainment is rife with Pentagon and CIA influence.

  How free is that? How free is your speech if there are myriad institutional safeguards in place to prevent speech from ever effecting political change?

  It doesn’t matter what you’re allowed to say if it doesn’t matter what you say. It doesn’t matter if you’re allowed to call the oligarchic puppet put in office by the last fake election a dickhead. It doesn’t matter if you’re allowed to Google any information you want only to find whatever information Google wants you to find.

  What is the functional difference between a regime which directly censors the internet to prevent dissent and a regime which works with Silicon Valley plutocrats to control information via algorithms and has a system in place which prevents dissent from having any meaningful impact?

  There is none.

  We live in a profoundly unfree society that is disguised as a free society. Western liberal democracy is just totalitarianism dressed in drag.

  And it’s only getting worse. Propaganda is a still-developing science.

  Canada’s military “relied on propaganda techniques similar to those employed during the Afghanistan war”, “shaping” & “exploiting” info “to head off civil disobedience by Canadians during the coronavirus pandemic and to bolster government messages” https://t.co/qr9nRlT0lH

  — Max Blumenthal (@MaxBlumenthal) October 1, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Last month Ottawa Citizen reported that the Canadian military used the Covid outbreak as an excuse to test actual military psyop techniques on its own civilian population under the pretense of assuring compliance with pandemic restrictions.

  Some excerpts:

  • “Canadian military leaders saw the pandemic as a unique opportunity to test out propaganda techniques on an unsuspecting public, a newly released Canadian Forces report concludes.”

  • “The plan devised by the Canadian Joint Operations Command, also known as CJOC, relied on propaganda techniques similar to those employed during the Afghanistan war. The campaign called for ‘shaping’ and ‘exploiting’ information. CJOC claimed the information operations scheme was needed to head off civil disobedience by Canadians during the coronavirus pandemic and to bolster government messages about the pandemic.”

  • “A separate initiative, not linked to the CJOC plan, but overseen by Canadian Forces intelligence officers, culled information from public social media accounts in Ontario. Data was also compiled on peaceful Black Lives Matter gatherings and BLM leaders.”

  • “‘This is really a learning opportunity for all of us and a chance to start getting information operations into our (CAF-DND) routine,’ the rear admiral stated.”

  • “Yet another review centred on the Canadian Forces public affairs branch and its activities. Last year, the branch launched a controversial plan that would have allowed military public affairs officers to use propaganda to change attitudes and behaviours of Canadians as well as to collect and analyze information from public social media accounts.”

  • “The plan would have seen staff move from traditional government methods of communicating with the public to a more aggressive strategy of using information warfare and influence tactics on Canadians.”

  So they’re not just employing mass-scale psychological operations on the public, they’re testing them and learning from them.

  And we can probably assume that anything which may have been learned was also shared with the government agencies of other NATO members.

  Western governments in the NATO military alliance are developing tactics of “cognitive warfare,” using the supposed threats of China & Russia to justify waging a “battle for your brain” in the “human domain,” to “make everyone a weapon”

  by @BenjaminNortonhttps://t.co/xFinhmunjy

  — The Grayzone (@TheGrayzoneNews) October 9, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  In a new article titled “Behind NATO’s ‘cognitive warfare’: Western militaries are waging a ‘battle for your brain’”, The Grayzone’s Ben Norton reports on how recent NATO-sponsored discussions have explicitly advocated the need to advance the science of cognitive warfare for offensive as well as defensive purposes.

  Some excerpts:

  • “NATO is spinning out an entirely new kind of combat it has branded as cognitive warfare. Described as the ‘weaponization of brain sciences,’ the new method involves ‘hacking the individual’ by exploiting ‘the vulnerabilities of the human brain’ in order to implement more sophisticated ‘social engineering.’

  • “While the NATO-backed study insisted that much of its research on cognitive warfare is designed for defensive purposes, it also conceded that the military alliance is developing offensive tactics, stating, ‘The human is very often the main vulnerability and it should be acknowledged in order to protect NATO’s human capital but also to be able to benefit from our adversaries’s vulnerabilities.’”

  • “In a chilling disclosure, the report stated explicitly that ‘the objective of Cognitive Warfare is to harm societies and not only the military.’”

  • “The study described this phenomenon as ‘the militarization of brain science.’ But it appears clear that NATO’s development of cognitive warfare will lead to a militarization of all aspects of human society and psychology, from the most intimate of social relationships to the mind itself.”

  • “In other words, this document shows that figures in the NATO military cartel increasingly see their own domestic population as a threat, fearing civilians to be potential Chinese or Russian sleeper cells, dastardly ‘fifth columns’ that challenge the stability of ‘Western liberal democracies.’”

  • “Naturally, the NATO researcher claimed foreign ‘adversaries’ are the supposed aggressors employing cognitive warfare. But at the same time, he made it clear that the Western military alliance is developing its own tactics.”

  In 1917, a young Edward Bernays was asked to help the American war effort by applying his uncle Sigmund Freud’s theories of the unconscious to a new German technique called “propaganda”. Thus began the current war: https://t.co/BqeaYIAic2

  — Bean #DropTheCharges🔥 (@SomersetBean) March 16, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  In a 2017 essay titled “The War on Sensemaking”, writer Jordan Greenhall made an observation that I have thought about ever since: that the science of modern propaganda has been in research and development for more than a century now, and has necessarily advanced scientifically just as much as other fields in the military have.

  “In 1917, a young Edward Bernays was asked to help the American war effort by applying his uncle Sigmund Freud’s theories of the unconscious to a new German technique called ‘propaganda’,” Greenhall writes.

  “The technology of war moves quickly. In the span of one and a half centuries, the last war leapt from long rifles to repeating rifles to gatling guns all the way to Little Boy. The warfighters of the current war haven’t dawdled. The wars of culture, meaning and purpose have seen innovation on an ‘exponential technology curve.’ The artisanal efforts of Bernays and Goebbels have been left far in the past by modern methods.”

  Think about how many technological advancements there have been in the military over the last century. Our rulers have been refining their methods of manipulating our sensemaking abilities to their advantage throughout that entire time, and only a small minority of us have even begun to realize that that manipulation is even happening. We’re just learning to play checkers while they’re mastering 3-D chess.

  I don’t have any solutions to this problem other than to spread consciousness of the fact that it is happening. Propaganda only works if you don’t understand (A) that it is happening to you and (B) how it is occurring, and a basic awareness of the fact that there’s a globe-spanning campaign to manipulate human thought to the advantage of the powerful is the first step toward having that understanding. Having the humility to understand that you yourself can be manipulated and deceived is the second step.

  My hope is that humanity will transcend its psychological susceptibility to manipulation and move into a healthy relationship with mental narrative as our adapt-or-die precipice draws nearer. But time will only tell.

  *  *  *

  My work is entirely reader-supported, so if you enjoyed this piece please consider sharing it around, following me on Facebook, Twitter, Soundcloud or YouTube, or throwing some money into my tip jar on Ko-fi, Patreon or Paypal. If you want to read more you can buy my books. The best way to make sure you see the stuff I publish is to subscribe to the mailing list for at my website or on Substack, which will get you an email notification for everything I publish. Everyone, racist platforms excluded, has my permission to republish, use or translate any part of this work (or anything else I’ve written) in any way they like free of charge. For more info on who I am, where I stand, and what I’m trying to do with this platform, click here.

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  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/15/2021 – 23:10

• China Coal Prices Soar To Record As Winter Freeze Spreads Cross The Country
  China Coal Prices Soar To Record As Winter Freeze Spreads Cross The Country

  One week ago we discussed why the “worst case” scenario for China’s property crisis is gradually emerging; to this we can now add that China’s worst case energy crisis scenario is also about to be unleashed as cold weather swept into much of the country and power plants scrambled to stock up on coal, sending prices of the fuel to record highs.

  Electricity demand to heat homes and offices is expected to soar this week as strong cold winds move down from northern China, according to Reuters with forecasters predicting average temperatures in some central and eastern regions could fall by as much as 16 degrees Celsius in the next 2-3 days.

  

  Shortages of coal, high fuel prices and booming post-pandemic industrial demand have sparked widespread power shortages in the world’s second-largest economy. Rationing has already been in place in at least 17 of mainland China’s more than 30 regions since September, forcing some factories to suspend production and further disrupting already broken supply chains.

  On Friday, the most-active January Zhengzhou thermal coal futures closed at a record high of 2,226 per tonne early. The contract has risen almost 200% year to date.

  

  China’s three northeastern provinces of Jilin, Heilongjiang and Liaoning – also among the worst hit by the power shortages last month – as well as several regions in northern China including Inner Mongolia and Gansu have started winter heating, which is mainly fuelled by coal, to cope with the colder-than-normal weather.

  Meanwhile, even though Beijing has taken a slew of measures to contain coal price rises including raising domestic coal output and cutting power to power-hungry industries and some factories during periods of peak demand, so far all measures have failed with coal surging by 40% in just the past three days. Beijing has also repeatedly assured users that energy supplies will be secured for the winter heating season, and went so far as to order energy firms to “secure supplies at all costs.” Well, the energy firms heard it, because on that day, thermal coal closed at 1,436 yuan. Two weeks later it is some 800 yuan higher.

  Unfortunately for Beijing, the power shortages are expected to continue into early next year, with analysts and traders forecasting a 12% drop in industrial power consumption in the fourth quarter as coal supplies fall short and local governments give priority to residential users.

  

  Earlier this week, we reported that China undertook its boldest step in a decades-long power sector reform when it allowed coal-fired power prices to fluctuate by up to 20% from base levels from Oct. 15, enabling power plants to pass on more of the high costs of generation to commercial and industrial end-users. read more

  Steel, aluminium, cement and chemical producers are expected to face higher and more volatile power costs under the new policy, pressuring profit margins.

  Meanwhile, the latest Chinese “data” on Thursday showed factory-gate inflation in September hit a record high; but since thermal coal is the one commodity that correlates the closest to PPI, absent a sharp drop in coal prices in the next few weeks, expect the next PPI print to be far higher. Meanwhile as the power crisis leads to further shutdowns in domestic production, some banks – such as Nomura – have gone so far to predict that China’s GDP is set to shrink in coming quarters.

  

  China, which laughably aims to be “carbon neutral” by 2060 even as its president announced he will skip the COP26 UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow, has been “trying” to reduce its reliance on polluting coal power in favor of cleaner wind, solar and hydro. But coal remains the source for some 70% of China’s electricity needs.

  Of course, China is not the only nation struggling with power supplies, which has led to fuel shortages and blackouts in many European countries. and threatens to send US heating bills up as much as 50% this winter. he crisis has highlighted the difficulty in cutting the global economy’s dependency on fossil fuels as world leaders seek to revive efforts to tackle climate change at talks next month in Glasgow.

  China will strive to achieve carbon peaks by 2030, Vice Premier Han Zheng said in a video message at the Russian Energy Week International Forum, according to state-run news agency Xinhua late on Thursday. He also said that China and Russia are important forces leading the energy transition and they should cooperate and ensure smooth progress of major oil and gas pipeline and nuclear power projects.

  Translation: Russia better save that nat gas and not ship it to Europe as China will soon be needed even BCF Russia an provide. As for China

   

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/15/2021 – 22:50

• Former Director Of National Intelligence Issues Warning Over Biden Buying Chinese Drones For Feds
  Former Director Of National Intelligence Issues Warning Over Biden Buying Chinese Drones For Feds

  Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

  Former Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe warned Sunday that the Biden administration is putting national security at risk by buying Chinese drone technology for federal law enforcement use.

  

  In an appearance on Fox News Ratcliffe urged that Chinese companies supplying the technology are likely relaying back information on U.S. critical infrastructure to the Chinese Communist Party.

  “Like so much that Biden administration has done on national security lately, this makes very little sense,” Ratcliffe warned.

  He added, “It’s harmful to our national security. And also, Chinese drone technology is not as good as U.S. drone technology.”

  “It’s hard to make sense out of what’s doing this, other than it is consistent with the Biden administration taking a softer approach, trying to promote a false narrative that somehow China is a competitor and not an adversary,” Ratcliffe further emphasised.

  Watch:

  Former DNI Director John Ratcliffe: Biden admin is undoing the Trump admin’s work tackling the threat of China. Now, the US is buying drones from the Chinese, which is “harmful to our national security.” Biden treats US parents as more threatening than Chinese spies, he says. pic.twitter.com/PCq1hUmUmE

  — Jason Rantz on KTTH Radio (@jasonrantz) October 11, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Ratcliffe’s warning comes a month after Joint Chiefs Chairman Mark Milley allegedly engaged in a ‘top-secret’ mission to undermine President Trump’s ability to order military strikes, and promised to tip off the CCP if the U.S. was planning military action according to a new book by Bob Woodword and the Washington Post‘s Robert Costa.

  Biden has been long-rumored to be under the thumb of the Chinese government, and the Afghanistan debacle also made the case for that theory even stronger.

  *  *  *

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  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/15/2021 – 22:30

• Aluminum Shortages Next As "Magnesium Supply Dries Up"
  Aluminum Shortages Next As “Magnesium Supply Dries Up”

  This week, the largest US producer of aluminum billet used to make automobiles and building supplies told customers and business associates that output capacity might be curtailed in 2022 due to a lack of magnesium supply.

  “In the last several weeks, magnesium availability has dried up, and we have not been able to purchase our required magnesium units for all of 2022,” Matalco Inc. President Tom Horter said in the letter obtained by S&P Global Platts. 

  Difficult-to-source supplies of raw materials and soaring energy prices are adding to the headwinds, Horter said in the letter. 

  “The purpose of this note is to provide this advanced warning that, if the scarcity continues, and especially if it becomes worse, Matalco may need to curtail production in 2022, resulting in allocations to our customers,” he said. 

  Horter said his company will source as much magnesium as possible and other raw materials, such as silicon, to maintain its planned production output for 2022. The warning comes as he told customers they should have contingency plans if supplies tighten. 

  Aluminum billet cannot be produced without magnesium, which is a strengthening agent and allows it to be strong enough to be used in structural applications, such as automobile frames, engine blocks, and body panels. 

  

  “We will provide an update in a couple of weeks,” Horter said. “In the meantime, you may want to consider letting your customer base know of this silicon and magnesium availability crisis and also let them know that other products or inputs needed for making billet or slab may also reach a crisis point.”

  Horter added other challenges such as the cost of energy, labor, and shipping are increasingly mounting. 

  Alcoa is another major US aluminum producer that also warned about shortages of magnesium and silicon. Without these two ingredients, both manufacturers cannot produce aluminum billet products. A reduction in US output would tighten global supply even further. 

  The macro backdrop of the aluminum industry is a complicated one. First, a military coup in Guinea last month stoked concerns over the supply of bauxite, a sedimentary rock with high aluminum content. Then the closure of energy-intensive smelters in Asia and Europe have tightened global supplies and forced LME prices to record highs. 

  

  The latest surge in industrial metals will continue to pressure inflation higher. 

  

  So much for the Federal Reserve’s “transitory” narrative. Higher costs will push up prices for new cars and other products made of aluminum.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/15/2021 – 22:10

• Luongo: "When You Buy Into Fear, You Sell Your Reason"
  Luongo: “When You Buy Into Fear, You Sell Your Reason”

  Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

  It’s Time For All Good Men to Stop Fearing John Galt

  “Who is John Galt?”

  AYN RAND – ATLAS SHRUGGED

  

  There comes a point in every person’s life when they have to reckon with the person in the mirror. Who am I? What do I want? Where am I going?

  Since the beginning of the COVID-9/11 story I’ve watched it break so many people who couldn’t answer these basic questions. The fear of the virus uncovered a lot about all of us.

  For many, unfortunately, it provoked their inner tyrant.

  Last year, during the height of the COVID insanity after publicly hanging up on an unhinged Lee Stranahan live on Sputnik Radio I tweeted this out.

  When you hit someone’s existential fear that’s when you uncover their inner tyrant. When something is beyond their capacity to understand, that’s when they turn to projecting that fear on other people.

  This is what was done to justify the lockdown. #endthelockdownnow

  — Tom Luongo (@TFL1728) April 27, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  This wasn’t just directed at Lee, but it really was.

  The hard investigative journalist of February 2020 turned into a sniveling, state-worshipping baby by late April. Fear of death uncovered his Room 101. That incident, among others, eventually took down his radio show with certified stand-up guy, Garland Nixon.

  Today it’s a shadow of its former self.

  I don’t know if my action was the catalyst for the changes that came, but I do know after that day nothing was the same.

  The sad truth is that Lee wasn’t alone. His collapse was just the most public version I ran into personally.

  When you buy into fear, you sell your reason. Gone is your skepticism as your world collapses. Your eyes focus on your next step too afraid to raise them to the horizon.

  There is no bigger picture, there is only the moment.

  For 20 months now, we have lived among people terrorized by a story, not a virus but a story, that told them they are the heroes for being afraid and the skeptics are the villains.

  To save ourselves we just have to give up our humanity and submit to an authority incapable of telling us the truth.

  Because the truth is we had very little to actually fear.

  These are the real villains, the Faucis, Bidens, Schwabs, Psakis, Trudeaus and anyone who still believes their patter.

  It was never about the disease, it was about control and the real damage being done to our psyches, our bodies and our communities, exactly as I argued to Lee on the radio eighteen months ago before I hung up on him.

  They created the fear and then manipulated it into something violent. They preyed on our common decency and humanity, twisting it into something evil which is now plain for anyone who lifts his eyes off the ground to see.

  Because vaccine mandates are the ultimate form of state violence, the death penalty notwithstanding.

  Once they had a large enough segment so terrorized they would rather die than admit they had been duped, those villains pushed the ultimate Hobson’s Choice on us: get the vaccine against COVID-9/11 and you can have your life back.

  But it was never their life to take in the first place.

  We gave it to them, hoping they weren’t as evil as many suspected.

  It’s amazing how just one year after a summer of looting and burning over police brutality against a black man who overdosed on fentanyl, these same people are making excuses for even worse police violence against people walking around in sunshine unmasked.

  To them we are the Untermenschen, the unvaxxed, the unclean.

  And that makes their violence justified because, to them, we are the ones keeping things from getting back to normal.

  Once the threat from COVID-9/11 was well established, rationality should have returned. But it hasn’t. Too many people are still stuck in Room 101, wedded to their shame over being duped by villains.

  They now wish death by COVID on those who refuse to get a shot for a virus that has a defined low probability of killing them and for which multiple therapeutic options are available.

  If they would just shut up, trust the science and let doctor’s practice medicine, life would really return to something close to normal.

  But it’s increasingly obvious to enough people that these mandates don’t measure up to the threat of the virus.

  Every day it becomes clearer that this is about their fear of us seizing back the power we gave them.

  To save themselves from The COVID they wish it on us, just like Winston Smith, who looked in the mirror and betrayed his love to serve a master who hates him as much as he hates himself.

  It doesn’t matter if the vaccines are ‘safe’ and ‘effective’ or not. I’m not here to argue that. That’s your personal choice, make it as you see fit. No blame. No shame.

  What’s important is that it is no one else’s choice.

  Further, it’s not your personal choice to tell me that I can’t partake in civil society if I don’t get the shot or, like Joe Rogan, choose a different path to treating COVID-9/11 than you would.

  Joe Rogan asks Sanjay Gupta if it bothers him that CNN outright lied about Rogan taking horse dewormer to recover from covid. This is fantastic: pic.twitter.com/PEgJqIXhSD

  — Clay Travis (@ClayTravis) October 14, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Because Winston always had a choice. He could choose to face his fear and finally become a man, like Joe Rogan.

  Or he can project his fear onto real men and stay in his personal hell for all the world to laugh at:

  Hey @joerogan nice to hear you paused from gargling Goat Urine or whatever you did instead of overcoming your fear of the Vaccine, to call me “unhinged” for pointing out what terrified snowflakes you and your clown car of followers are.

  Here’s the video that set off Mr. Afraid: pic.twitter.com/gLOgKiWlGs

  — Keith Olbermann (@KeithOlbermann) October 13, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Watching this man’s Two Minutes of Hate is revealing of everything that is wrong with the COVID-9/11 story.

  And that same choice is now directly in our path, vaxxed or unvaxxed.

  COVID-9/11 is never going away. Neither will the flu, the common cold or any other virus endemic to the environment.

  Life is risk and it belongs to those willing to face those risks to keep the world from breaking. Cower in fear if you like, but scapegoating the unvaxxed won’t save you.

  I saw this in March 2020 saying we have to be brave and celebrate everyone willing to go to work to make the things we need to treat the sick and protect the healthy.

  In a real economy, everyone is an essential worker.

  This is because everyone contributes in their small way to the fully functional world that ensures the shelves are stocked, the energy flows and our meager triumphs over nature’s hostility to our presence remain in place.

  For months now we have been openly threatened with having our lives taken away because we don’t have our party registration papers up to date. We’ve all wrestled, at some level, with our disbelief that things would degrade this badly and this quickly.

  The Olbermensch tells us we can be friends again after we just get the damn shot.

  What he won’t admit is that we know he’s lying. Keith hates us for the mirror we hold up in front of him. Take a long look, that is the face of shame.

  Because ideals are judges. Those ideals only shame men capable of admitting it. The rest sink into solipsism and insanity.

  In Rand’s novel, John Galt built the engine that could change the world. But he refused to give it to the world he lived in.

  The Olbermensches would just use it to perpetuate their power, their evil.

  

  Who is John Galt? He’s that best version of ourselves that knows who we are, what we want and where we will end up. And it’s past time we stopped fearing the loss that comes with stating that directly.

  The strike of the productive and the self-aware Rand envisioned is here. The airline pilots, an Ubermensch class of people if there is one in this sick, sad world, walked out over last weekend taking most of Southwest Airlines’ staff with them.

  The Olbermensches are furious, openly lying about what happened and castigating anyone who says otherwise.

  But we shouldn’t care.

  Just like we shouldn’t care that Sanjay Gupta, after Rogan’s shaming, was forced into a public Struggle Session to retain his place at CNN, proving to all the world that he is a man without principles, ideals or shame.

  As I write this, on October 15th, vaccine mandates go into effect all around the Davos-controlled world. The choice is now in front of hundreds of millions of people. Becoming your own version of John Galt comes with loss.

  It means giving up something today to retain not just your integrity but provide strength to those not quite there yet.

  Everything rests on giving them your consent. The Olbermensches do not negotiate, they bully.

  Bullies are cowards. Your consent today feeds their addiction to fear.

  Previously I told you to quietly, “Just Say No” to them. Now I’m telling you that takes the form of withdrawing consent completely, risking today’s comfort for tomorrow’s benefit. The strength you display today is the foundation of a world we build back better than the one that is gone.

  I had a good gig with Sputnik Radio. But I owed them nothing. But when the mask of civility fell, it was time to go.

  We all wear that mask at times but only with those worthy of reciprocating.

  All things come to an end, good and bad. What matters is who we choose to be, what we want and unafraid of where those choices lead us.

  

  Note: These images are from the classic DC Comic from the 1980’s The Question, Issue #5, where Vic nearly kills himself over guilt for setting in motion the final collapse of the city he’s sworn to protect, but has sunk into depravity, violence and apathy.

  *  *  *

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  ETH: 0x1dd2e6cddb02e3839700b33e9dd45859344c9edc
  DGB: SXygreEdaAWESbgW6mG15dgfH6qVUE5FSE

   

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/15/2021 – 21:50

• Global Auto Names On Watch After Toyota Slashes November Production Estimate By (Another) 15%
  Global Auto Names On Watch After Toyota Slashes November Production Estimate By (Another) 15%

  We wrote just hours ago that European auto stocks would likely be next on watch after disappointing data out of China.

  This morning, after a Nikkei report stating that Toyota would cut its global auto production target for November, those same stocks are on watch. Names like Stellantis, Daimler, GM, BMW and Renault will all be in focus on Friday as a result of the announcement.  

  Toyota said it was cutting auto production in November  by 15% from its latest plan. This will equate to a drop-off of about 150,000 vehicles. Toyota had already cut production targets by 40% from its initial plan for September to October, Nikkei reported. 

  The company said it was negatively affected (like everyone else in the industry) by the ongoing semiconductor shortage. Toyota also cited power outages in China as a reason for cutting its production targets. 

  

  Recall, days ago we reported that passenger vehicle wholesales in China fell 16.5% YOY to 1.75 million units.

  The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers predicts for a weaker full year auto market – also due to chip and power shortages, it said. It expects the chip shortage to ease up in Q4 of this year, marking yet another prediction amongst a sea of confusion between manufacturers and analysts as to when the global shortage will end. Other analysts and several automakers have commented that the chip shortage could continue into 2022.

  Despite the dip, there were a couple silver linings. The CAAM has been forecasting pickup truck sales to rise by more than 1 million units by 2030, from 414,000 in 2020. 

  New energy vehicle wholesales also continued to be robust, up 148.4% to 357,000 units.

  Toyota, meanwhile, is expected to keep its full year production target of 9 million units. 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/15/2021 – 21:30

• "Why I'm Leaving My California Teachers' Union"
  “Why I’m Leaving My California Teachers’ Union”

  Authored by Beth Richardson via RealClearEducation.com,

  I have been a middle school special education teacher for 18 years. Every day I spend in the classroom is a joy – the work is hard, but so rewarding – and with almost two decades of experience, I know how my students learn best.

  

  Imagine my surprise when the California Teachers Association – which spends zero days per year with students – tries to tell teachers how to run their classrooms.

  Like many teachers across the state, I have watched nervously as schools begin to adopt curriculums that include Critical Race Theory – a concept I believe would do incredible harm to our children and our country, as it requires every lesson we teach to be presented and understood through the lens of race. While my school, thankfully, has yet to embrace this unproven theory, I fear it may only be a matter of time.

  Adopting CRT certainly seems to be the direction our state union is taking, following the lead of the National Education Association, which recently announced that it will promote the theory and actively push back against anything it sees as “anti-CRT rhetoric.”

  We’re already seeing how these kinds of ideas can creep into the classroom and harm student education. Some educators in my state are pushing to redefine math, taking the focus off of the “right answer” because pointing out a wrong answer is supposedly a form of white supremacy.

  If we can no longer teach the difference between correct and incorrect, what is the point of teaching?  I’ve been a dues-paying union member for about three years, and while I frequently disagreed with the political direction of my union, I maintained my membership because I thought it necessary to keep my benefits.

  

  This desperate push for critical race theory, and the forcing of teachers to adopt this curriculum, no matter our beliefs, is the final straw. I could tolerate being told whom to vote for. I could tolerate paying for legal representation that is, frankly, subpar. What I cannot tolerate is being told how to teach by people who have never stepped foot in my classroom.

  So I’m leaving my union. Or at least I’m trying to leave. Despite the Supreme Court’s decision in Janus, which states that collecting union dues from non-members is a violation of the First Amendment, my request to leave the union was met with: “Sorry, try again.”

  After submitting my request to forgo membership, I received a letter from the CTA informing me that I must continue to pay my dues.

  “While you may drop your membership through your local,” the letter says, “the agreement to pay dues continues… regardless of membership status.”

  Indeed, a teacher can only “revoke [their] dues authorization by sending written notice… not less than thirty (30) days and not more than sixty (60) days before the annual anniversary date of the agreement.”

  Let me get this straight: I have to continue paying dues to an organization I do not support for an entire year? Next time I’ll make sure my political breaking point lines up with the union’s arbitrary 30-day period.

  I’m not alone in this battle with the union – at least eight other teachers in my district are trying to leave, for various reasons. They, too, missed this arbitrary 30-day window and are stuck financially supporting a radical political platform for another year.

  As the educator entrusted to lead my classroom, I should have a say in what and how I teach. I want to make sure all my students succeed and are set up for a life of purpose and fulfillment. CRT threatens that future, replacing equal opportunity in the classroom with a curriculum that pits groups against one another. I feel that it’s my responsibility to stand up for my students. The day I’m told that I have to change my curriculum is the day I’ll retire.

  Until then, I’d rather not be compelled to give part of my paycheck to an organization that puts its political agenda above the education of America’s kids.

  *  *  *

  Beth Richardson is a middle school special education teacher in San Diego, California.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/15/2021 – 21:10

• Japan's New Prime Minister Admits Abenomics Was A Failure
  Japan’s New Prime Minister Admits Abenomics Was A Failure

  Sometimes it takes years, if not decades to be proven right in a world that has been turned upside down.

  Take Abenomics, the “radical” Japanese vision that was supposed to overhaul Japan’s economy and society, push wages higher, boost Japanese exports, spark en economic renaissance and drag Japan out of its perpetual deflationary debt trap (but it’s not targeting a weaker yen, it was never targeting a weaker yen) yet was nothing more than sanctioned money printing, and which we bashed from the very beginning, to wit:

  For The First Time Ever, Japan Enters A Quintuple-Dip Recession (Courtesy Of Abenomics) https://t.co/KllDJmX4e1

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 15, 2015

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The Abenomics Devastation: Japanese Real Wages Decline For Record 16 Consecutive Months http://t.co/vEkvamwYD4

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 2, 2014

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Abenomics Humiliated Again As Japan Posts 15th Consecutive (And Record) Trade Deficit http://t.co/3fR7E7C9BA

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 21, 2013

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  Abenomics Is Crushing The Japanese Worker http://t.co/jqkitFGz3P

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 3, 2013

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  … and so much more, it was just today, almost a decade after Abenomics first arrived on the scene, that we get the official verdict, that it was – as we said all along – a failure.

  Speaking to the FT in his first interview with international media since taking over Japan’s leadership this month, Fumio Kishida, Japan’s new prime minister pledged to move the country away from neoliberalism as he lambasted his own party’s failure to deliver broad-based growth under the Abenomics programme that defined the economy for almost a decade.

  Kishida told the FT that while regulatory reform remained necessary, he would approach it with a focus on narrowing the gap between the rich and poor. The implication – Abenomics, like money printing everywhere else, was responsible for creating a staggering chasm between the rich and poor.

  “Abenomics clearly delivered results in terms of gross domestic product, corporate earnings and employment. But it failed to reach the point of creating a ‘virtuous cycle’,” Kishida said, in his bluntest attack on a program embraced by his two predecessors that propelled the Tokyo stock market through a doubling in value.

  “I want to achieve a virtuous economic cycle by raising the incomes of not just a certain segment, but a broader range of people to trigger consumption. I believe that’s the key to how the new form of capitalism is going to be different from the past,” he added, Kishida said sounding almost socialist.

  In Japan, “neoliberalism” most often refers to the reforms of the 1990s and 2000s, including deregulation, privatization and labor market reform, rather than tight fiscal policy and cuts to public spending. By openly criticising his predecessor, Shinzo Abe, who failed not once but twice as Japan’s longest-serving prime minister and who resigned in September 2020, Kishida took a calculated risk according to the FT, as he prepares for a general election on October 31.

  One reason for his assault on Abenomics is that recent polls have showed him with an average approval rating of just over 50 per cent, considerably lower than most of his predecessors when they came into office and a signal, said political analysts, that his honeymoon period for enacting meaningful reform may be short.

  The former foreign minister was chosen to replace Yoshihide Suga as leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic party on the understanding that he would offer “status quo” stability and continuity. Despite attempts to remove that image, he has already backtracked on one of his major policy initiatives to raise capital gains tax after share prices fell sharply on concerns that such a move would kill a recent revival of interest by individual domestic investors.

  Kishida stressed his new economic approach — involving tax incentives for companies to raise wages and pay increases for nurses and care workers — would attempt to reverse the failures of the “trickle-down” theories and market-led reforms that have guided Japanese policymaking from the mid-2000s.

  “Everyone just considers regulatory reform in terms of market fundamentalism, competition and survival of the fittest. That’s the problem with our past thinking on regulatory reform,” Kishida said, calling on companies and the public to share a more holistic vision of the economy.

  He also envisions deeper collaboration between the state and the private sector to secure strategic assets and technologies such as chips and rare earths that will be pivotal for economic security.

  “It is important to ensure a self-sufficient economy when we are considering future growth,” Kishida said. “We need to make sure that Japan has technologies that are critical to complete global supply chains so we can achieve indispensability.”

  Kishida publicly signaled for the first time that he may also take a new approach to the corporate governance reform that has been a pillar of the Abenomics programme alongside aggressive monetary easing and fiscal stimulus.While Japan introduced its first corporate governance code in 2015, Kishida said a separate code may be needed to address the needs of small and medium-sized companies. “It’s not realistic to apply the same rules. Corporate governance is important for small- and medium-sized enterprises but they can’t do it in the same way as big companies,” he explained.

  Predictably, corporate executives who got egregiously rich thanks to money printing Abenomics have privately expressed scepticism about the new prime minister’s economic agenda, pointing to how Japan has failed to emerge from deflation and open up rigidly regulated markets even after nearly nine years of strong public support for Abenomics. Their solution: do more of what has failed, after all it makes them richer.

  

  Kishida also faces a more complex geopolitical environment than his predecessors, with China’s increasing assertiveness and a global rush to secure national supply chains following the turmoil caused by the coronavirus pandemic.When asked about the new trilateral security partnership the US has launched with the UK and Australia to strengthen their ability to counter China, Kishida said Japan had no specific plans to join the framework.

  But he added: “Considering the stability of the region, it is extremely important for European and US countries to be interested and involved in Asia’s security environment.”

  Kishida heads an LDP faction with a historically dovish stance on China, but as prime minister, he has called for a strengthening of the country’s missile and other defense capabilities.

  For the upcoming election, the ruling party for the first time included a manifesto pledge to double defence spending, in a break from the long-held tradition to keep its military budget within 1 per cent of GDP.

  “On the economic front, it’s important to stabilize relations with China,” Kishida said, before noting recent “questionable behavior” from Beijing. “So on the political level, Japan must be able to firmly assert itself against China.”

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/15/2021 – 20:50

• China Releases Humiliating Footage Of Blindfolded Indian Troops Captured On Disputed Border
  China Releases Humiliating Footage Of Blindfolded Indian Troops Captured On Disputed Border

  Earlier this year China state media began belatedly releasing on-the-ground video footage of the Ladakh Galwan Valley clash which occurred in June 15-16, 2020 – and resulted in the deaths of 20 Indian soldiers. While Indian media sources claimed dozens of soldiers were also killed on the Chinese side, it resulted in a heightened military standoff which continues to this day, as peace talks have lately faltered. 

  Since the 2020 deadly skirmish, the Chinese side has kept quieter on the details, but this week released high quality video of the moment PLA soldiers captured Indian border troops and led them captive with blindfolds. 

  China now released HD version of captured Indian soldiers at 2020 Galwan River Valley Clash pic.twitter.com/wbcK51rwMb

  — Carl Zha (@CarlZha) October 15, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Days ago a 13th round of military commander-level talks failed to produce any breakthroughs – instead troop encampments and military build-up involving tens of thousands along the disputed Line of Actual Control has continued.

  Some recent reports have suggested that the PLA military releasing such humiliating images of defeated looking Indian captives being led away by Chinese border patrols are meant as public retaliation for recent alleged Indian aggressions on the border.  

  This isn’t the first time China has released snippets of 2020 clash footage at Ladakh, but it’s perhaps the most provocative release to date.

  The recently failed talks mean that India and China will continue to have troops forwardly deployed in Ladakh, where the skirmishes took place. China has blamed the failure on what it called “unreasonable demands” from India.

  

  In the region there are tens of thousands deployed by either side. Since the deadly June 2020 skirmish, the US has stepped up military cooperation with India, including a new military pact that shares more satellite data with New Delhi. With this increased intelligence sharing, India can keep a better eye on Chinese troops.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/15/2021 – 20:30

• Alabama School Districts Hit With Food Shortage, Warn Of Remote School Days
  Alabama School Districts Hit With Food Shortage, Warn Of Remote School Days

  A school district just north of Montgomery, Alabama, informed parents in a Facebook post that their food vendors are experiencing “supply chain issues” that have led to no food deliveries, and some area schools might not be able to feed kids, according to The Birmingham News. 

  Alexander City Schools urged parents to feed their children before school or bring snacks due to the lack of food at schools. 

  “As you know, breakfast and lunch is served daily in our schools. In previous weeks we have not received our food deliveries due to suppliers who are short on supplies, drivers and even warehouse employees,” school officials said in a Facebook post on Saturday.

  “Breakfast may be impacted more so than lunch in the coming weeks. If possible, we ask that you feed your student breakfast prior to school or try to send a snack,” the officials continued. 

  Alexander is experiencing various challenges that stretch from farm to cafeteria table. Food and labor shortages impact everything from food production to transportation to even serving up meals at schools. 

  Alexander is not an isolated issue. School districts across the state are facing similar shortages to varying degrees. 

  Dothan City Schools, located in the state’s southeastern corner, have already notified parents of the possibility that remote school days are possible. The school system must close schools to rebuild depleted inventories of food. 

  “As a last resort, we may also ask that you prepare to have virtual/remote school days a few days out of the week to alleviate the stress of our food supplies,” the district told parents on Sept. 23.”We face a situation where we must do everything we can to continue providing a nurturing environment for our students to learn and grow.”

  Snarled supply chains have upended other school districts across the country, including ones in Wisconsin and Indiana. 

  The problem appears to worsen over the last month as some schools are preparing to close down and return to remote learning for other reasons than the pandemic. 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/15/2021 – 20:10

• Flooding In West China Destroys Agricultural Production
  Flooding In West China Destroys Agricultural Production

  Authored by Alex Wu via The Epoch Times,

  Continuous rainfall for more than ten days has caused the lower reaches of the Luo River in China’s west to spill their banks. Large volumes of floodwater released from upstream have destroyed two dams in one county, and villages are flooded. Local jujube growers and those in animal husbandry have suffered serious losses.

  

  The autumn harvest is at a severe loss in Dali County of Weinan city, Shaanxi Province, where 108 villages have been affected by floods.

  According to local media reports, Dali County has experienced heavy rains this fall. Water levels in the Wei River and Luo River running across the province have exceeded their warning levels, with some areas experiencing serious floods.

  In Dali’s Zhaodu town, about 29,000 acres of farmland were flooded, and 25,126 people had to be urgently evacuated.

  As to the reason for the flooding, some locals have voiced suspicion that it’s caused by the local authorities intentional release of floodwaters to protect other areas.

  Xin Ming (alias), a villager in Xinsi village, Zhaodu town, told the Chinese-language Epoch Times that he believes that in order to protect Gansu Province and Henan Province, the authorities quickly released a large volume of water into the Dali area, bursting local river banks.

  “The village was completely submerged, about two meters (6.6 feet) deep, and the houses and furniture were all immersed in the water,” he said.

  Posts on social media by other local villagers in the disaster-stricken areas, across Zhaodu and Dali County, also said, “In order to protect Gansu Province in the upper stream, and Henan Province in the lower stream, [authorities in] Shaanxi Province opened their own gates for two flood releases. The flood passed through Dali, and the dam broke.”

  The Epoch Times could not verify this information. After contacting the Flood Control Command of Dali County, and a staff member said that they did not release floodwaters at this time.

  At 6 a.m. on Oct. 9, villagers suddenly received a notice from township officials ordering them to evacuate immediately.

  Xue Fei (alias), an animal husbandry farmer in Zhaodu, told The Epoch Times, “The water is rising rapidly, and the time for people to evacuate was very short, in a rush. Cows and pigs were killed by the flood, and the farmers have suffered particularly great losses.”

  Dali County is known for its jujube plantations. It has been recognized by the central authorities for its high-quality agricultural products, like the famous “Dali Jujube.” Most local villagers grow jujube to support their livelihoods. It’s harvest season now, but the floods have ruined this year’s crop.

  “Dali County’s winter jujube is the most delicious in the country and has the most output,” Xin said.

  “The winter jujube in the field is almost completely submerged, and the greenhouses are also completely submerged.”

  Xin’s 5-acre plantation of jujube trees was all destroyed after being soaked in floodwater.

  The Epoch Times has obtained a video showing the flooding in Dali County.

  After the flooding disaster, non-government relief materials were sent to the area in batches. But after the local government took over control of the distribution of aid, no aid has been reaching villagers outside the big towns.

  The weather has been getting cold, Xin said. “We are short of quilts, cotton-padded clothes, and daily necessities, and the villagers do not even have enough shirts and pants.”

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/15/2021 – 19:50

• "It Was Just A Big Poker Game": Michael Dell Talks Dealing With Carl Icahn, Semi Shortage, In New Interview
  “It Was Just A Big Poker Game”: Michael Dell Talks Dealing With Carl Icahn, Semi Shortage, In New Interview

  Among what are likely pages of overused boring business anecdotes, Michael Dell’s new book, “Play Nice But Win: A CEO’s Journey From Founder to Leader”, also includes an interesting look at doing business with Carl Icahn. 

  Dell recently sat down with Bloomberg for an interview and revealed some of the book’s details, as well as his take on current events in the semiconductor industry, which has been experiencing a year long shortage.. 

  Speaking about when Carl Icahn took a stake in Dell and tried to prevent the company from going public, Dell said: “I didn’t really have much experience dealing with someone who would just go on television and lie.”

  He claimed that after confronting Icahn, he found out that the “activist” didn’t even have a plan for the company.

  

  Dell said: “I did go to his house and confront him, and I saw he didn’t have any plan whatsoever for the company. To him it was just a big poker game.”

  In other news, Dell believes that the semiconductor shortage could wind up persisting. 

  “It takes about three years to build a new semiconductor plant. We’re only 18 months into this,” he told Bloomberg. “We’ve heard from our customers that our supply chain is functioning well. They may not like the lead time, but it’s predictable and reliable.”

  Dell pointed out that he thought government should do more to provide infrastructure for semiconductors in the United States. 

  “When you have China investing so aggressively in these strategic areas and the U.S. and Europe not, it creates a real challenge,” he said.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/15/2021 – 19:30

• Here's The Truth Behind Biden's 24/7 Port Operations Pledge
  Here’s The Truth Behind Biden’s 24/7 Port Operations Pledge

  Written by Lori Ann LaRocco, author of: “Trade War: Containers Don’t Lie, Navigating the Bluster” (Marine Money Inc., 2019) “Dynasties of the Sea: The Untold Stories of the Postwar Shipping Pioneers” (Marine Money Inc., 2018). First published on FreightWaves

  When you tear away the frills of President Biden’s supply chain announcement, it is essentially a political pawn to push the infrastructure bill. The ugly truth is the congestion will not be alleviated anytime soon and it will definitely not be any better in the next 90 days. Why? 

  It’s common sense and math. 

  You can’t blame private-sector companies for this plan’s future letdown. Trade takes people and coordination among all the players within the supply chain. The ports and all of the stakeholders within these ports must be on the same page when it comes to a 24/7 operation.

  The holes in this announcement are numerous.

  First, 3,500 additional containers moved in a week is 200 containers a day. During the month of August, the San Pedro Bay ports moved 1,241,896 TEUs. This projection of 3,500 does not move the needle at all. That’s a mere 14,000 containers — which translates into just 1% of the total TEUs. This plan is being called a “sprint.”

  Biden’s announcement of 24/7 ports is not accurate. Only one terminal out of the 12 in San Pedro is operating 24 hours a day — Total Terminals International (TTI) at the Port of Long Beach — and that every-second schedule is only Monday through Thursday, making it a 24/4 situation, not 24/7.

  A Port of Long Beach official said discussions were taking place with other terminals. But as of now, no other terminals have signed on. In the pursuit of 24/7, you need all the players to make this successful.

  The 24/7 operation at the Port of Los Angeles is not even happening. When asked if the port was going 24/7 on Thursday, the day after this announcement, the port press office answered in an email:

  “No(t) one marine terminal will go 24/7 tomorrow. This [is] a process to work the details of expanded hours leading to around-the-clock work in the private sector. It will take all private- and public-sector partners to operationalize this. There are no fast levers, but we have more cargo than ever and need to move it safely and securely. Gene [Seroka, executive director] will be meeting with industry associates tomorrow on this. No ETA as of today.”

  So the ports as of right now are status quo as it relates to expanded operations.

  The reason for this lack of 24/7 is because every facet of the supply chain must be participating in an equal fashion. Truckers are not going to work 24/7 if they can’t pick up containers at a warehouse that is closed. The flow of trade moves when everyone in that flow is working. The question is what can be done to change the behaviors of those in the supply chain to go to 24/7?

  This frustration can be read in a press release from the Harbor Trucking Association, which said the Biden administration’s plan did not address the core issues that have been plaguing the supply chain.

  The release stated,

  “While steamship lines and their marine terminal partners have been pointing the finger at the trucking industry for not utilizing appointments during this crisis, the underlying causes have continued to compound unchecked. Challenges faced by truckers doing business at the ports stem from productivity and efficiency issues that are not alleviated by merely shifting to 24/7 gate operations.”

  The HTA said thousands of empty containers currently are sitting in motor carrier yards on top of the chassis, preventing those chassis from moving an import container off the dock.

  “So those appointments go unused. … This is not an issue of unwillingness to pick up cargo, the entire supply chain wants this cargo moved. It is instead a tangled web of shifting constraints that impede and discourage participation,” the statement read.

  Also in this plan FedEx, UPS and Walmart were mentioned in stepping up in helping alleviate the supply chain. 

  When asked for specifics, FedEx global media relations responded:

  “FedEx Logistics President and CEO Dr. Udo Lange appreciated the opportunity to join other business leaders and the administration to share our expertise and discuss supply chain issues, but we have no other details to share at this time.”

  Walmart spokesperson Ashley Nolan said:

  “We’ll increase throughput by as much as 50% during the nighttime hours being added at the port.”

  At the time of publication, UPS did not respond to comment.

  In the sea of faces of those attending this press event, a critical piece of the supply chain was missing — the ocean carriers and the port terminals. 

  When Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg’s office was asked why there was no participation, the response was vague:

  “The administration has and will continue to have a regular dialogue with ocean carriers and terminal operators.” 

  And yet, at least one of those carriers has not been contacted — Hapag-Lloyd, one of the largest ocean shipping lines in the world.

  “We have not been approached,” confirmed a company spokesperson.

  “Ships are already operating 24/7 whenever possible. The challenge is to get containers off the terminal by truck and rail because the warehouses will not/cannot take deliveries on weekends. It is a lot about shippers’ inability to take delivery of their goods and infrastructure bottlenecks in the U.S.”

  The carriers and the terminal operators are key pieces to this puzzle. The terminals are the key segment of the supply chain that not only schedules the truck container pickups and drop-offs, they also request the  labor to unload the vessels.

  So if this is a 90-day sprint, the U.S. supply chain needs more muscle and a massive shot of adrenaline.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/15/2021 – 19:10

• 4 In 10 TSA Employees Remain Unvaccinated As Deadline Looms
  4 In 10 TSA Employees Remain Unvaccinated As Deadline Looms

  While we wait to see what remains of the US army after hundreds of thousands of unvaccinated troops are told to pack up for not complying with Biden’s executive order (and whether that’s the moment China will decided to attack), we wonder if soon nobody will be able to fly as a few weeks from now the Transportation Security Administration may simply cease to exist.

  According to CNN, the TSA says 4-in-10 members of its workforce, including screeners, remain unvaccinated against Covid-19 just weeks ahead of a looming deadline. The deadline for civilian federal government workers to be fully vaccinated is November 22 – the Monday before Thanksgiving, which just happens to be the busiest travel time of the year.

  “We have about 60% of our workforce has been vaccinated, that that number needs to go quite a bit higher over the next few weeks,” TSA Administrator David Pekoske told CNN.

  

  The November 22 deadline for being fully vaccinated is still six weeks away, but the deadlines for receiving the vaccines are rapidly approaching or, in the case of the Moderna vaccine, have already passed, since an individual has to receive the full schedule of doses and wait two weeks before being considered fully vaccinated.

  In order to meet that deadline, the last possible date for receiving the first dose of the Pfizer vaccine is October 18, while the latest possible date for the first dose of Moderna was October 11. According to CNN, the Pfizer vaccine requires a three-week waiting period in between first and second doses. Moderna requires a four-week wait. The last possible date to receive the single-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine is November 8, two weeks before the November 22 deadline.

  Pekoske said he is “very hopeful” that the agency’s employees can meet the deadline and that there will not be worker shortages, however in light of mandatory requirements that clearly will not happen.

  “We are building contingency plans, for if we do have some staffing shortages as a result of this, but I hope to avoid that,” he said.

  It wasn’t clear what, if any, these contingency plans are.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/15/2021 – 18:50

• #EmptyShelvesJoe Trends On Twitter Amid Supply Chain Snarls 
  #EmptyShelvesJoe Trends On Twitter Amid Supply Chain Snarls 

  The hashtag #EmptyShelvesJoe was one of the hottest trends across Twitter Thursday as people en masse are waking up to the fact that international supply chains are clogged, and shortages have resulted in empty store shelves at their local retailer. 

  

  The hashtag, number one in the US on Thursday, comes one day after President Biden issued a port directive to operate 24/7 to alleviate snarled supply chains. But the move to have Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, a point of entry for 40% of all US containerized goods, work in hyperdrive to alleviate congestion is “too little, too late” to save Christmas, said one top toymaker. 

  Earlier this week, 80 container ships are at anchor and 64 at berths across the twin ports. The backlog doesn’t stop there as it takes well more than a week for entry into the port. Once the containers are unloaded, it takes another week to leave the port to warehouses.

  Those tweeting the hashtag placed most of the blame on Biden and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg for their inability to normalize supply chains as congestion creates shortages of consumer goods and rapid inflation. 

  An aerial visual of the backlog at the Port of Los Angeles shows tens of thousands of containers are sitting dockside. Some have said it’s the lack of truck drivers that have resulted in delays. 

  LOOK: The Port of Los Angeles was jam-packed with flotillas of cargo ships and stacks of shipping containers as a deal was reached to shift to 24/7 operations to break a supply-chain logjam https://t.co/Gq0apjBd2k pic.twitter.com/elNkrVfmty

  — Bloomberg Quicktake (@Quicktake) October 14, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “Are f**king container yards are stuffed,” said one Twitter user. 

  Great job Pete Buttigieg 👏👏👏 and #EmptyShelvesJoe pic.twitter.com/WbmFvyEupA

  — Savage As Always (@ForIAmKing78) October 14, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  As the hashtag continued to go viral on Thursday afternoon, Twitter police decided to remove it from the list of trending topics. 

  This morning #EmptyShelvesJoe was the number 1 trending hashtag in the United States thanks to @catturd2.

  Sometime before 3pm Twitter had already decided that was bad, and REMOVED the hashtag from the list of tags that are auto-suggested as you type in your topic. pic.twitter.com/Rk6SYTzFdU

  — Brick Suit (@Brick_Suit) October 15, 2021

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  “Empty store shelves” on Google Trends is also surging. 

  

  Here are some tweets of people across the county complaining about empty store shelves and using the #EmptyShelvesJoe hashtag. 

  TRUMP FINDS BARE SHELVES!#Trump #MAGA #BareShelvesBiden #EmptyShelvesJoe #LetsGoBrandon #STAYLOUD #LOUDMAJORITY pic.twitter.com/kpJqbhaPoB

  — Shawn Farash ❌🐻 (@Shawn_Farash) October 14, 2021

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  @POTUS @PressSec
  Building Back Better pic.twitter.com/RW2dpvrftl

  — Peggy aka EFF (@DesiFlurane) October 14, 2021

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  This is the juice isle in my local store #EmptyShelvesJoe pic.twitter.com/jwd8pl28Dn

  — Stacy Bates (@stacyflyers10) October 15, 2021

  According to the latest Rasmussen poll, “62% of Americans say they’ve already noticed shortages of basic items in stores where they live.”

  

  Broken supply chains, raging inflation in energy, food, and housing, and the overall cost of living getting more expensive – compound this all with shortages of consumer goods, the president’s job approval number continues to tumble. 

  

  One can assume with congested supply chains unlikely to abate anytime soon, Biden will be blamed on Twitter for ruining Christmas as certain consumer goods won’t make it under the tree this year.    

  Finally, just in case you wondered who was to blame for “empty shelves”, here is Joe Biden himself explaining it last year… “We don’t have a food shortage problem — we have a leadership problem.”

  We don’t have a food shortage problem — we have a leadership problem. pic.twitter.com/eFpJ8PGHGM

  — Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) May 21, 2020

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  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/15/2021 – 18:10

• Bitcoin Nears $63k As ProShares Signals ETF Launch Imminent, Dorsey Plans Mining System
  Bitcoin Nears $63k As ProShares Signals ETF Launch Imminent, Dorsey Plans Mining System

  Update (1650ET): Confirming the earlier headlines that set the stage for a Bitcoin (futures) ETF to start trading next week, Bloomberg’s James Seyffart tweeted that Proshares’ 8A just hit which registers the ETF’s shares with the SEC for trading on an exchange.

  If anyone needs more evidence that this is happening on Tuesday. Proshares’ 8A just hit which registers the ETF’s shares with the SEC for trading on an exchange. pic.twitter.com/Idp6cm4qet

  — James Seyffart (@JSeyff) October 15, 2021

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  Additionally, ETFStore President Nate Geraci told CoinDesk that the form is “a step forward” for digital assets and bridging them with the more traditional financial sector. He confirmed that the filing of a post-effective amendment is confirmation of the SEC’s tacit approval.

  “It’s an encouraging sign for the future of crypto to see SEC Chairman Gensler get comfortable in helping mainstream investors more easily access bitcoin exposure,” he said in an email.

  “The availability of a bitcoin ETF will now bring more investors under the crypto tent and facilitate greater education across the space.”

  As UBS warned in its latest Crypto Compasss, so as not to tempt fate, one veteran investor offered the tongue-in-cheek observation that anticipated SEC approval for a futures-based ETF may mark a local top in prices, much like the Coinbase IPO, per the old adage: “buy the rumour, sell the fact.”

  

  The same thing occurred on the exact day that BTC futures debuted on the CME on December 17, 2017. We wouldn’t bank on it but also wouldn’t be surprised to see such a milestone marking the point where some long-term dip buyers begin to lighten up. They have been accumulating steadily for the past seven months.

  But, options markets are signaling a lot of upside still for BTC (and positive gamma)…

  

  However, UBS notes that stablecoin intervention is a more potent threat, with authorities actively throwing sand in the wheels of further development. 

  *  *  *

  Update (1635ET): Square (and Twitter) CEO Jack Dorsey has been a long-time advocate for cryptocurrencies and this evening he tweeted about his latest plans to create a Bitcoin mining system:

  Square is considering building a Bitcoin mining system based on custom silicon and open source for individuals and businesses worldwide. If we do this, we’d follow our hardware wallet model: build in the open in collaboration with the community. First some thoughts and questions.

  — jack⚡️ (@jack) October 15, 2021

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  As he detailed in a brief thread:

  1/ Mining needs to be more distributed. The core job of a miner is to securely settle transactions without the need for trusted 3rd parties. This is critical well after the last bitcoin is mined. The more decentralized this is, the more resilient the Bitcoin network becomes. True? 

  2/ Mining needs to be more efficient. Driving towards clean and efficient energy use is great for Bitcoin’s economics, impact, and scalability. Energy is a system-level problem that requires innovation in silicon, software, and integration. What are the largest opportunities here? 

  3/ Silicon design is too concentrated into a few companies. This means supply is likely overly constrained. Silicon development is very expensive, requires long term investment, and is best coupled tightly with software and system design. Why aren’t more companies doing this work? 

  4/ There isn’t enough focus on vertical integration. Considering hardware, software, productization, and distribution requires accountability for delivering to an end customer vs improving a single technology in the chain. Does seeing this as a single system improve accessibility? 

  5/ Mining isn’t accessible to everyone. Bitcoin mining should be as easy as plugging a rig into a power source. There isn’t enough incentive today for individuals to overcome the complexity of running a miner for themselves. What are the biggest barriers for people running miners? 

  Our team led by @JesseDorogusker will start the deep technical investigation required to take on this project. We’d love your thoughts, ideas, concerns, and collaboration. Should we do this? Why or why not? We’ll update this thread as we make our decisions. And now over to Jesse. 

  That headline was enough to push Bitcoin even higher on the day, nearing $63k at its peak…

  

  *  *  *

  Cryptos are all rallying this morning but Bitcoin is making headlines as it broke back above the $60,000 level for the first since April…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  This has extended a recent run from around $40,000 which has been driven by increasingly optimistic signs of a Bitcoin ETF being imminent…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  This has pushed Bitcoin back up to be the world’s 8th largest asset (just below that of Silver), and well above $1 trillion market cap…

  

  Source

  

  Citing “people familiar with the matter,” Bloomberg has reported that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission is poised to approve the first Bitcoin futures ETFs in the country.

  The anonymous sources said:

  “The regulator isn’t likely to block the products from starting to trade next week.”

  Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas recently laid out his odds for which of the numerous ETF proposals will be accepted first…

  

  And for those in the “digital gold” camp, this analog from the ’70s is interesting. CoinTelegraph reports that Austrian investor and analyst Niko Jilch this week referenced famed investor Paul Tudor Jones while explaining the “excitement” over the Bitcoin ETF.

  Tudor Jones had previously highlighted Bitcoin’s cycles being similar to gold in the 1970s — just when it had become a futures product itself and enjoyed a 10-year bull run followed by a 50% correction.

  Gold’s 1970s rip, TechDev additionally noted, fits extremely neatly over Bitcoin’s performance since October 2020.

  

  Finally, not to be forgotten, Ethereum is holding above $3800…

  

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/15/2021 – 17:58

• Seattle School Cancels Halloween "Pumpkin Parade"; Says It "Marginalizes Students Of Color"
  Seattle School Cancels Halloween “Pumpkin Parade”; Says It “Marginalizes Students Of Color”

  Authored by GQ Pan via The Epoch Times,

  A public elementary school in the Seattle area has reportedly canceled a Halloween-themed parade after school district officials said it “marginalizes” students of color, especially those from the black community.

  

  Benjamin Franklin Day (B.F. Day) Elementary School, which serves the neighborhood in a northeastern suburb of Seattle, decided to discontinue the “Pumpkin Parade” holiday tradition this year on the advice of the school’s racial equity team, according to Seattle-based conservative radio host Jason Rantz.

  In an Oct. 8 newsletter to parents obtained by Rantz, the school explained the rationale behind the decision to cancel the Pumpkin Parade, which traditionally involves a procession of children in Halloween costumes.

  “Halloween events create a situation where some students must be excluded for their beliefs, financial status, or life experience,” the letter read.

  “Costume parties often become an uncomfortable event for many children, and they distract students and staff from learning.

  “Large events create changes in schedules with loud noise levels and crowds. Some students experience over stimulation, while others must deal with complex feelings of exclusion. It’s uncomfortable and upsetting for kids.”

  Instead of the Halloween festivities, students at B.F. Day Elementary may participate in fall events that are considered more inclusive, such as “thematic units of study about the fall” or review “autumnal artwork” while “sharing all the cozy feelings of the season.”

  In a statement provided to Rantz, a spokesperson for Seattle Public Schools said the district supports the decision to cancel the parade, which “historically marginalizes students of color” who don’t celebrate the holiday.

  “In alliance with SPS’s unwavering commitment to students of color, specifically African American males, the staff is committed to supplanting the Pumpkin Parade with more inclusive and educational opportunities during the school day,” the spokesperson stated.

  Some parents are upset with the cancellation of the parade.

  David Malkin, whose 7-year-old son is enrolled at B.F. Day, questioned whether the move actually helps anyone.

  “I don’t see any way in which this actually addresses any inequities to the extent that there are any inequities,” Malkin told Rantz on his show.

  “You know, this just seems like grandstanding on behalf of the principal and the staff who are predominantly white.”

  Malkin, who is Asian, also said the decision lacked input from him or other parents.

  “I’m sure they don’t want to hear from anyone of any race or ethnicity that doesn’t really want to go along with them in lockstep,” he said.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/15/2021 – 17:50

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• Taliban Is In Turkey For Talks After Warning US & EU That Sanctions Will Cause New Refugee Wave To Hit West
  Taliban Is In Turkey For Talks After Warning US & EU That Sanctions Will Cause New Refugee Wave To Hit West

  The Taliban has warned US and European envoys during ongoing talks in Doha that continued sanctions and US-led political pressure could unleash new refugee waves on Europe. 

  “Afghanistan’s new Taliban government has warned US and European envoys that continued attempts to pressure them through sanctions will undermine security and could trigger a wave of economic refugees,” the AFP wrote of the statement. Later in the week, the Taliban carried the same message to Turkey, which would find itself on the front lines of any migrant surge out of central Asia.

  

  Taliban official and acting foreign minister Amir Khan Muttaqi told his Western counterparts that “weakening the Afghan government is not in the interest of anyone because its negative effects will directly affect the world in (the) security sector and economic migration from the country.”

  Perhaps both a warning and a threat, and reminiscent of the 2015 migrant crisis driven in large part by the destabilizing war in Syria, Muttaqi added the following demand:

  “We urge world countries to end existing sanctions and let banks operate normally so that charity groups, organizations and the government can pay salaries to their staff with their own reserves and international financial assistance.”

  As for any recent “concessions” by Washington, the Biden administration days ago announced the US would resume humanitarian aid “to the Afghan people” – but on the condition of Taliban cooperation, including allowing foreign nationals free movement to exit the country. The US has still resisted any level of formal political recognition of Taliban rule over the country, however.

  Aid, investment, and security were top of the list of concerns as the Taliban met with top Turkish officials in Ankara Thursday. Given Turkey has long been the number one regional “bridge” between Asia and Europe for migrant and refugee traffic, the question of Afghan refugees is of prime importance for Turkey’s government. 

  Taliban delegation meets in Ankara with Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu. pic.twitter.com/fsKK9vjItH

  — Ali Özkök (@Ozkok_A) October 14, 2021

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  Turkey is expected to feel the shock first of any coming refugee wave out of Afghanistan, given it’s already long been for years a “jumping-off point” for Afghans making the arduous trip to Europe. The past decade alone has seen some 600,000 Afghans settle in Turkey – all the while a mass wave of Syrian refugees exited there as well, many which are still along Turkey’s southern border (over 3 million).

  Turkey is reportedly now constructing a nearly 300km wall along the Iranian border to physically block the exodus coming from central Asia, according to prior reporting in the AFP.

  During a press conference after the Turkish FM-Taliban meeting, Foreign Minister Cavusoglu said that while the Turkish side reiterated a desire for Taliban reforms in human rights and areas like girls’ education and women’s employment, Turkey’s foremost concern remains stability.

  We do not put forward preconditions like many European countries do, we always say everything should be inclusive, every relevant party from [Afghanistan] should be included to ensure peace and stability is established – Turkey’s FM Cavusoglu pic.twitter.com/X82TBSIZHl

  — TRT World Now (@TRTWorldNow) October 14, 2021

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  The question of security, which Turkey has offered assistance on when it comes to protecting Kabul’s international airport, is no doubt directly linked to Turkey as well as European fears of a new migrant crisis at their gates. In statements to the press, Cavusoglu appeared to take an indirect swipe at US policy toward the Taliban, saying it won’t press for “preconditions” of “inclusivity” like the US and UE, but desires a secure Afghan environment above all.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/15/2021 – 02:45

• UK Fuel & Household Energy Spending Soared 20% In The Past 2 Weeks: Lloyds Bank
  UK Fuel & Household Energy Spending Soared 20% In The Past 2 Weeks: Lloyds Bank

  Via The Epoch Times,

  Sept. 24 saw the highest amount spent on fuel in a single day since Lloyds Bank records began, analysis of customers’ debit cards shows.

  The peak fell the day after BP and Tesco closed some filling stations due to problems with fuel delivery.

  

  Across the UK, people spent a fifth (20 percent) more at petrol stations in the past two weeks, compared with the two weeks before, the bank said.

  Sept. 24 saw the bank’s debit card users spend 125 percent more on fuel than on the same day in 2019, and the highest amount since records began in April 2014.

  The East Midlands saw the biggest increase in fuel spending in the last two weeks compared with the two before, up 24 percent, followed by the West Midlands (23 percent), and the south east (22 percent).

  This was followed by Yorkshire and Humber (20 percent). Wales and Scotland saw the lowest increases, at 14 percent and 15 percent respectively, followed by London and the south west on 19 percent.

  However, the bank said there were signs that demand for fuel was easing. Week-on-week spending across the UK has fallen by almost a third (31 percent), with the number of transactions down 20 percent.

  Only three regions, all in the south and east, saw drops of less than 30 percent. Londoners’ spending on fuel fell just 20 percent, the lowest of any region, followed by the south east (21 percent) and east of England (25 percent).

  The amount spent on cards on household energy in the past two weeks also increased, by 24 percent, as a combination of colder weather and soaring energy prices gripped the UK.

  Spending on energy is now 14 percent higher than the same two weeks in 2020, the bank’s figures show.

  Philip Robinson, payments and fraud and financial crime director at Lloyds Bank, said: “After an initial incredible spike in late September where spending on fuel was the highest we’ve ever seen it, over the past week card payments at petrol stations have fallen, particularly in northern and western parts of the UK.

  “However, household energy spend continues to increase, 13 percent in the last week alone, driven by rising prices and colder months.

  “With this in mind, now is a very good time to sit down and reflect on your personal finances ahead of Christmas 2021.

  “Budget effectively and give yourself a clear idea of what you can afford this festive season.”

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/15/2021 – 02:00

• Cryptos Surge On News SEC "Set To Allow" Bitcoin Futures ETF
  Cryptos Surge On News SEC “Set To Allow” Bitcoin Futures ETF

  There was some speculation today that the long-awaited SEC decision on a futures-based bitcoin ETF was imminent, which is what sparked the earlier surge in the crypto sector. Said speculation got only stronger after earlier in the day, the SEC tweeted out an  education bulletin the agency wrote in June about bitcoin futures and “funds that hold bitcoin futures.” As Bloomberg’s resident in house crypto expert put it, this was “clearly good sign and we upping our [bitcoin ETF] odds to 85% but until I see ProShares’ updated post-effective prospectus his EDGS, I’m not calling it.”

  GETTING CLOSER: The SEC just tweeted out an edu bulletin they wrote back in June re bitcoin futures and “funds that hold bitcoin futures” Clearly good sign and we upping our odds to 85% but until I see ProShares’ updated post-effective prospectus his EDGS, I’m not calling it. https://t.co/LJ6Kf4wPZm

  — Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) October 14, 2021

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  He probably should have called it because late on Thursday, Bloomberg reported what so many crypto faithful had been waiting for the past 7 years, namely that the SEC is “poised to allow the first U.S. Bitcoin futures exchange-traded fund to begin trading in a watershed moment for the cryptocurrency industry.”

  According to the report, the SEC isn’t likely to block the products from starting to trade next week. Furthermore, as reported previously, unlike Bitcoin ETF applications that the regulator has previously rejected, “the proposals by ProShares and Invesco Ltd. are based on futures contracts and were filed under mutual fund rules that SEC Chairman Gary Gensler has said provide “significant investor protections.”

  So barring “a last-minute reversal”, the fund launch will be the culmination of a nearly decade-long campaign by the $6.7 trillion ETF industry to begin allocating some capital to the best performing asset class/currency/commodity of the past decade.

  Advocates have sought approval as a confirmation of mainstream acceptance of cryptocurrencies since Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, the twins best known for their part in the history of Facebook Inc., filed the first application for a Bitcoin ETF in 2013.

  The long wait is coming to a favorable outcome after years of stumbles with the SEC previously rejecting bitcoin ETF on the grounds that the crypto space is plagued with investor hazards. The SEC had also expressed concern that prices could be manipulated and liquidity might be insufficient, and that Bitcoin’s drastic price swings may be too much for individual investors. Of course, for most investors the volatility is worth the returns: Bitcoin’s last three full-year returns were a 74% loss followed by gains of 95% and 305%. Additionally, the SEC has questioned whether funds would have the information necessary to adequately value cryptocurrencies or related products. There have also been questions about validating ownership of the coins held by funds and the threat from hackers.

  But the mood shifted in August, when Gensler – who previously showed extensive interest in the crypto world having once taught a class at MIT’s Sloan School of Management called “Blockchain and Money” – signaled he’d favor funds based on CME-traded Bitcoin futures filed under a 1940s law. He reiterated that stance late last month.

  Gensler’s openness led to a wave of futures-backed filings and unbridled optimism among issuers that approval could be imminent, and helped lift the price of bitcoin from the low/mid-$40,000s to above $50,000 in recent days, surging to its highest level since May this week, ultimately doubling from its price reached in late July when it briefly dipped below $30,000.

  That said, the initial capital reallocation will likely be modest. According to Balchunas, such futures-based ETFs are “flawed because rolling futures and will prob not sweep the nation.” His guess is only. 3-4b in first year (1% of ETF flows).” But, in any event, this is “def a BIG step after 7yr wait.”

  Most ppl reading this thread from crypto world are prob pumped but just note these ETFs are flawed bc rolling futures and will prob not sweep the nation, rather demand prom muted. My guess is only. 3-4b in first year (1% of ETF flows). But def a BIG step after 7yr wait.

  — Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) October 15, 2021

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  Balchunas also made a prediction which Bitcoin ETF will get to the market first, a list which is headed by the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF and goes from there.

  And once again here’s our odds on which Bitcoin ETF gets to market first as well as first poss date they can launch, via @JSeyff pic.twitter.com/GqXRf2O5oM

  — Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) October 15, 2021

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  News of the imminent bitcoin ETF sent bitcoin and the broader crypto space sharply higher when it hit just after 10pm ET on Thursday.

  

   

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/15/2021 – 00:29

• Tyrants Of The Nanny State: When The Government Thinks It Knows Best
  Tyrants Of The Nanny State: When The Government Thinks It Knows Best

  Authored by John W. Whitehead & Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

  “Whether the mask is labeled fascism, democracy, or dictatorship of the proletariat, our great adversary remains the apparatus—the bureaucracy, the police, the military. Not the one facing us across the frontier of the battle lines, which is not so much our enemy as our brothers’ enemy, but the one that calls itself our protector and makes us its slaves. No matter what the circumstances, the worst betrayal will always be to subordinate ourselves to this apparatus and to trample underfoot, in its service, all human values in ourselves and in others.”

  – Simone Weil, French philosopher and political activist

  We labor today under the weight of countless tyrannies, large and small, carried out in the so-called name of the national good by an elite class of governmental and corporate officials who are largely insulated from the ill effects of their actions.

  We, the middling classes, are not so fortunate.

  We find ourselves badgered, bullied and browbeaten into bearing the brunt of their arrogance, paying the price for their greed, suffering the backlash for their militarism, agonizing as a result of their inaction, feigning ignorance about their backroom dealings, overlooking their incompetence, turning a blind eye to their misdeeds, cowering from their heavy-handed tactics, and blindly hoping for change that never comes. 

  

  The overt signs of the despotism exercised by the increasingly authoritarian regime that passes itself off as the United States government (and its corporate partners in crime) are all around us: COVID-19 lockdowns and vaccine mandates that strip Americans of their freedom of movement and bodily integrity; censorship, criminalizing, shadow banning and de-platforming of individuals who express ideas that are politically incorrect or unpopular; warrantless surveillance of Americans’ movements and communications; SWAT team raids of Americans’ homes; shootings of unarmed citizens by police; harsh punishments meted out to schoolchildren in the name of zero tolerance; armed drones taking to the skies domestically; endless wars; out-of-control spending; militarized police; roadside strip searches; roving TSA sweeps; privatized prisons with a profit incentive for jailing Americans; fusion centers that spy on, collect and disseminate data on Americans’ private transactions; and militarized agencies with stockpiles of ammunition, to name some of the most appalling.

  Yet as egregious as these incursions on our rights may be, it’s the endless, petty tyrannies—the heavy-handed, punitive-laden dictates inflicted by a self-righteous, Big-Brother-Knows-Best bureaucracy on an overtaxed, overregulated, and underrepresented populace—that illustrate so clearly the degree to which “we the people” are viewed as incapable of common sense, moral judgment, fairness, and intelligence, not to mention lacking a basic understanding of how to stay alive, raise a family, or be part of a functioning community.

  It’s hard to say whether we’re dealing with a kleptocracy (a government ruled by thieves), a kakistocracy (a government run by unprincipled career politicians, corporations and thieves that panders to the worst vices in our nature and has little regard for the rights of American citizens), or if we’ve gone straight to an idiocracy. 

  This certainly isn’t a constitutional democracy, however.

  This overbearing Nanny State despotism is what happens when government representatives (those elected and appointed to work for us) adopt the authoritarian notion that the government knows best and therefore must control, regulate and dictate almost everything about the citizenry’s public, private and professional lives.

  The government’s bureaucratic attempts at muscle-flexing by way of overregulation and overcriminalization have reached such outrageous limits that federal and state governments now require on penalty of a fine that individuals apply for permission before they can grow exotic orchids, host elaborate dinner parties, gather friends in one’s home for Bible studies, give coffee to the homeless, let their kids manage a lemonade stand, keep chickens as pets, or braid someone’s hair, as ludicrous as that may seem.

  Consider, for example, that businesses in California must now designate an area of the children’s toy aisle “gender-neutral” or face a fine, whether or not the toys sold are traditionally marketed to girls or boys such as Barbies and Hot Wheels. California schools are prohibited from allowing students to access websites, novels or religious works that reflect negatively on gays. And while Californians are free to have sex with whomever they choose (because that’s none of the government’s business), removing a condom during sex without consent could make you liable for general, special and punitive damages.

  Up until a few years ago, Missouri required that anyone wanting to braid African-style hair and charge for it must first acquire a government license, which at a minimum requires the applicant to undertake at least 1500 hours of cosmetology classes costing tens of thousands of dollars. Tennessee was prepared to fine residents nearly $100,000 just for violating its laws against braiding hair without a government license. In Oregon, the law was so broad that you needed a license even if you were planning to braid hair for free. The mere act of touching someone’s hair could render you a cosmetologist operating without a license and in violation of the law.

  It’s getting worse.

  Almost every aspect of American life today—especially if it is work-related—is subject to this kind of heightened scrutiny and ham-fisted control, whether you’re talking about aspiring “bakers, braiders, casket makers, florists, veterinary masseuses, tour guides, taxi drivers, eyebrow threaders, teeth whiteners, and more.”

  For instance, whereas 70 years ago, one out of every 20 U.S. jobs required a state license, today, almost 1 in 3 American occupations requires a license.

  The problem of overregulation has become so bad that, as one analyst notes, “getting a license to style hair in Washington takes more instructional time than becoming an emergency medical technician or a firefighter.”

  This is what happens when bureaucrats run the show, and the rule of law becomes little more than a cattle prod for forcing the citizenry to march in lockstep with the government.

  Overregulation is just the other side of the coin to overcriminalization, that phenomenon in which everything is rendered illegal and everyone becomes a lawbreaker.

  This is the mindset that tried to penalize a fisherman with 20 years’ jail time for throwing fish that were too small back into the water.

  That same overcriminalization mindset reared its ugly head again when police arrested a 90-year-old man for violating an ordinance that prohibits feeding the homeless in public unless portable toilets are also made available.

  It’s no coincidence that both of these incidents—the fishing debacle and the homeless feeding arrest—happened in Florida.

  Despite its pristine beaches and balmy temperatures, Florida is no less immune to the problems plaguing the rest of the nation in terms of overcriminalization, incarceration rates, bureaucracy, corruption, and police misconduct.

  A few years back, in fact, Florida officials authorized police raids on barber shops in minority communities, resulting in barbers being handcuffed in front of customers, and their shops searched without warrants. All of this was purportedly done in an effort to make sure that the barbers’ licensing paperwork was up to snuff.

  As if criminalizing fishing, charity, and haircuts wasn’t bad enough, you could also find yourself passing time in a Florida slammer for such inane activities as singing in a public place while wearing a swimsuit, breaking more than three dishes per day, farting in a public place after 6 pm on a Thursday, and skateboarding without a license.

  In this way, the Sunshine State is representative of the transformation happening across the nation, where a steady diet of bread and circuses has given rise to an oblivious, inactive citizenry content to be ruled over by an inflexible and highly bureaucratic regime.

  America has gone from being a beacon of freedom to a locked down nation. And “we the people,” sold on the idea that safety, security and material comforts are preferable to freedom, have allowed the government to pave over the Constitution in order to erect a concentration camp.

  The problem with these devil’s bargains, however, is that there is always a catch, always a price to pay for whatever it is we valued so highly as to barter away our most precious possessions.

  We’ve bartered away our right to self-governance, self-defense, privacy, autonomy and that most important right of all—the right to tell the government to “leave me the hell alone.”

  In exchange for the promise of an end to global pandemics, lower taxes, lower crime rates, safe streets, safe schools, blight-free neighborhoods, and readily accessible technology, health care, water, food and power, we’ve opened the door to lockdowns, militarized police, government surveillance, asset forfeiture, school zero tolerance policies, license plate readers, red light cameras, SWAT team raids, health care mandates, overcriminalization, overregulation and government corruption.

  In the end, such bargains always turn sour.

  We relied on the government to help us safely navigate national emergencies (terrorism, natural disasters, global pandemics, etc.) only to find ourselves forced to relinquish our freedoms on the altar of national security, yet we’re no safer (or healthier) than before.

  We asked our lawmakers to be tough on crime, and we’ve been saddled with an abundance of laws that criminalize almost every aspect of our lives. So far, we’re up to 4500 criminal laws and 300,000 criminal regulations that result in average Americans unknowingly engaging in criminal acts at least three times a day. For instance, the family of an 11-year-old girl was issued a $535 fine for violating the Federal Migratory Bird Act after the young girl rescued a baby woodpecker from predatory cats.

  We wanted criminals taken off the streets, and we didn’t want to have to pay for their incarceration. What we’ve gotten is a nation that boasts the highest incarceration rate in the world, with more than 2.3 million people locked up, many of them doing time for relatively minor, nonviolent crimes, and a private prison industry fueling the drive for more inmates, who are forced to provide corporations with cheap labor.

  A special report by CNBC breaks down the national numbers:

  One out of 100 American adults is behind bars — while a stunning one out of 32 is on probation, parole or in prison. This reliance on mass incarceration has created a thriving prison economy. The states and the federal government spend about $74 billion a year on corrections, and nearly 800,000 people work in the industry.

  We wanted law enforcement agencies to have the necessary resources to fight the nation’s wars on terror, crime and drugs. What we got instead were militarized police decked out with M-16 rifles, grenade launchers, silencers, battle tanks and hollow point bullets—gear designed for the battlefield, more than 80,000 SWAT team raids carried out every year (many for routine police tasks, resulting in losses of life and property), and profit-driven schemes that add to the government’s largesse such as asset forfeiture, where police seize property from “suspected criminals.”

  According to the Washington Post, these funds have been used to buy guns, armored cars, electronic surveillance gear, “luxury vehicles, travel and a clown named Sparkles.” Police seminars advise officers to use their “department wish list when deciding which assets to seize” and, in particular, go after flat screen TVs, cash and nice cars.

  In Florida, where police are no strangers to asset forfeiture, Florida police have been carrying out “reverse” sting operations, where they pose as drug dealers to lure buyers with promises of cheap cocaine, then bust them, and seize their cash and cars. Over the course of a year, police in one small Florida town seized close to $6 million using these entrapment schemes.

  We fell for the government’s promise of safer roads, only to find ourselves caught in a tangle of profit-driven red light cameras, which ticket unsuspecting drivers in the so-called name of road safety while ostensibly fattening the coffers of local and state governments. Despite widespread public opposition, corruption and systemic malfunctions, these cameras—used in 24 states and Washington, DC—are particularly popular with municipalities, which look to them as an easy means of extra cash.

  One small Florida town, population 8,000, generates a million dollars a year in fines from these cameras. Building on the profit-incentive schemes, the cameras’ manufacturers are also pushing speed cameras and school bus cameras, both of which result in heft fines for violators who speed or try to go around school buses.

  As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People and in its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, this is what happens when the American people get duped, deceived, double-crossed, cheated, lied to, swindled and conned into believing that the government and its army of bureaucrats—the people we appointed to safeguard our freedoms—actually have our best interests at heart.

  Yet when all is said and done, who is really to blame when the wool gets pulled over your eyes: you, for believing the con man, or the con man for being true to his nature?

  It’s time for a bracing dose of reality, America.

  Wake up and take a good, hard look around you, and ask yourself if the gussied-up version of America being sold to you—crime free, worry free, disease free and devoid of responsibility—is really worth the ticket price: nothing less than your freedoms.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/15/2021 – 00:00

• Global Ship Backlog Just Got Even Worse As New Supply Chain Nemesis Emerges
  Global Ship Backlog Just Got Even Worse As New Supply Chain Nemesis Emerges

  As if relentless, fiscally-stimulated global demand for (made in China) products, coupled with soaring input prices, Covid-crippled indutries, production-throttling energy crises and containership parking lots off major ports wasn’t enough to cripple global supply chains, we can throw in one more factor that will make “just in time” deliveries a thing of the pre-Biden past and will ensure that nobody gets their presents this Christmas.

  The weather.

  A tropical storm that’s lashing southern China is causing a ship backlog from Shenzhen to Singapore, Bloomberg reports as it warn of even emptier store shelves come Christmas.

  Shipping data compiled by Bloomberg show there are currently 67 container ships anchored off Hong Kong and Shenzhen, 22% more congested than median daily counts from April through Oct. 14. Another 61 remain anchored off China’s massive Ningbo port in Shanghai.

  

  For once there is no “unintended consequence” behind this pile up – it’s the result of Typhoon Kompasu freezing transit lanes, closing schools in Hong Kong and canceling stock market trading in the financial hub on Wednesday. It also sparked the latest containership domino-effect at the worst possible time, with 37 ships now waiting off Singapore, 18% more congested than normal. And with Singapore one of the most efficient ports in the world and a key hub for containers to be moved from one vessel to another while in transit, any disruption in the city-state is bound to have far-reaching ramifications.

  

  The incremental delays will make an already fragile supply chain, that much more unstable: according to the Busan Port Authority in South Korea, vessels are having to wait about three days to berth and that’s causing so-called transshipment cargo to pile up. Meanwhile, almost 40 ships are anchored off Los Angeles, 4.5% more congested than usual, while 11 are cooling their heels off the coast of Malaysia at Tanjung Pelepas, creating a congestion rate about 25% above the median. For Vietnam’s dual hub of Ho Chi Minh City and Vung Tau, things are even worse, with current congestion 38% higher than the median.

  Operators are scrambling to find a solution to this chaos which seems to get worse with every passing day: “shipping companies and other stakeholders are trying to resolve the backlog because there are real concerns that many year-end holiday goods will never reach consumers in time,” said Um Kyung-a, an analyst at Shinyoung Securities in Seoul. “This month will be the most challenging period but hopefully things will start to ease from the fourth quarter.”

  This is a “hopeful” line we have heard every month since May. It has yet to come true.

  Located at the gateway – both literal and metaphorical – of global Transpacific supply chains, accessible port terminals are an indispensable anchor to any hopes of normalizing supply chains. Alas, congestion at container terminals around the world has added pressure to already stretched supply chains. Covid-19 cases at ports, along with shortages of shipping containers and labor have aggravated the problem as exporters try to send goods to the U.S. and Europe before the end of the year.

  According to Singapore Logistics Association chairman Dave Ng, vessels are waiting one to three days to berth at most major ports in Southeast Asia, including Singapore, The wait is more than three days at major ports in Northeast Asia and could extend to over a week in other parts of the world. And any incremental delays only cascade exponentially, adding more days to an already broken system.

  “Global port congestion has introduced more uncertainty into planning and booking of sea shipments,” Ng told Bloomberg. “Ocean freight costs have increased five to six times from the levels pre-Covid and this has translated into higher operating costs for logistics companies.”

  Logistics companies have been working to improve business productivity by sharing resources and leveraging technology, Ng said. But they still face difficulties in filling jobs, particularly driving and warehousing, which could impact operations in the near term, he said.

  Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported this week that shipping giant Maersk said earlier this week that it’s diverting some ships from the U.K.’s largest container port because of congestion tied to a trucker shortage. Many logistics companies are finding it difficult to find drivers to pick up and deliver containers, causing a backlog at the Port of Felixstowe.

  Port congestion and lack of containers has driven shipping rates to record levels this year. Spot levies to haul a 40-foot container to Los Angeles from Shanghai peaked at $12,424 last month before easing to $11,173 as of Oct. 7, the Drewry World Container Index show. Rates to Rotterdam from Shanghai hit an all-time high of $14,807 last week. Shipping rates dipped modestly in the latest week, but as we explained previously, this was for the worst possible reason namely a sharp drop in China output. Expect a sharp spike in the next few weeks as throttled Chinese production returns.

  

  Exporters and shipping companies have been trying to find alternative routes to avoid the backlog. Some cargo from China is now being shipped to Busan and then reloaded on ships bound for Russia’s east coast before being put on trains and sent through to Europe.

  In an act of sheer desperation, the Biden admin announced on Wednesday that the Port of Los Angeles will begin operating 24 hours a day, seven days a week as part of efforts to break the logjam. However, as Rabobank explained earlier this morning, simply getting containers out of the terminal at LA achieves very little if you don’t the solve chassis crisis; if the containers sit there waiting for trucks; or for truckers; or for rail. All you do is move the logjam from sea to shore – and that can potentially make matters worse. The Transportation Secretary running this task force is a vocal opponent of the ‘so build a bigger road’ mentality that ends up with bigger roads and the same traffic logjam.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/14/2021 – 23:40

• Oh Great, They're Putting Guns On Robodogs Now
  Oh Great, They’re Putting Guns On Robodogs Now

  Authored by Caitlin Johnstone,

  So hey, they’ve started mounting sniper rifles on robodogs, which is great news for anyone who was hoping they’d start mounting sniper rifles on robodogs.

  

  At an exhibit booth in the Association of the United States Army’s annual meeting and exhibition, Ghost Robotics (the military-friendly competitor to the better-known Boston Dynamics) proudly showed off a weapon that is designed to attach to its quadruped bots made by a company called SWORD Defense Systems.

  Latest lethality 6.5 #creedmoor sniper payload from @SWORDINT. Check out the latest partner payloads @AUSAorg Wash DC. Keeping US and allied #sof #warfighter equipped with the latest innovations. @USSOCOM #defense #defence #NationalSecurity #drone #robotics pic.twitter.com/Dvk6OvL3Bu

  — Ghost Robotics (@Ghost_Robotics) October 11, 2021

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  “The SWORD Defense Systems Special Purpose Unmanned Rifle (SPUR) was specifically designed to offer precision fire from unmanned platforms such as the Ghost Robotics Vision-60 quadruped,” SWORD proclaims on its website.

  “Chambered in 6.5 Creedmoor allows for precision fire out to 1200m, the SPUR can similarly utilize 7.62×51 NATO cartridge for ammunition availability. Due to its highly capable sensors the SPUR can operate in a magnitude of conditions, both day and night. The SWORD Defense Systems SPUR is the future of unmanned weapon systems, and that future is now.”

  Back in May the US Air Force put out a video on the “Robotic Ghost Dog” these weapons are designed to be used with, showing the machines jogging, standing up after being flipped over, and even dancing. All of which becomes a lot less cutesy when you imagine them performing these maneuvers while carrying a gun designed to blow apart skulls from a kilometer away.

  At one point in the video a Senior Master Sergeant explains to the host how these robodogs can be affixed with all kinds of equipment like communications systems, explosive ordnance disposal attachments, gear to test for chemicals and radiation, and the whole time you’re listening to him list things off you’re thinking “Guns. Yeah guns. You can attach guns to them, why don’t you just say that?”

  The SPUR prototype is just one of many different weapons we’ll surely see tested for use with quadruped robots in coming years, and eventually we’ll likely see its successors tested on impoverished foreigners in needless military interventions by the United States and/or its allies. They will join other unmanned weapons systems in the imperial arsenal like the USA’s notorious drone program, South Korea’s Samsung SGR-A1, the Turkish Kargu drone which has already reportedly attacked human beings in Libya without having been given a human command to do so, and the AI-assisted robotic sniper rifle that was used by Israeli intelligence in coordination with the US government to assassinate an Iranian scientist last year.

  And we may be looking at a not-too-distant future in which unmanned weapons systems are sought out by wealthy civilians as well.

  In the new episode of Medium’s Playback podcast, @rushkoff reads his story ‘Survival of the Richest,’ about the billionaires plotting to survive the apocalypse while maintaining their power, then discusses it with host @manoushz. Listen: https://t.co/dQgRC9v4Ir pic.twitter.com/DYAYcqUpLC

  — Medium (@Medium) September 5, 2018

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  In 2018 the influential author and professor Douglas Rushkoff wrote an article titled “Survival of the Richest” in which he disclosed that a year earlier he had been paid an enormous fee to meet with five extremely wealthy hedge funders. Rushkoff says the unnamed billionaires sought out his advice for strategizing their survival after what they called “the event”, their term for the collapse of civilization via climate destruction, nuclear war or some other catastrophe which they apparently viewed as likely enough and close enough to start planning for.

  Rushkoff writes that eventually it became clear that the foremost concern of these plutocrats was maintaining control over a security force which would protect their estates from the rabble in a post-apocalyptic world where money might not mean anything. I encourage you to read the following paragraph from the article carefully, because it says so much about how these people see our future, our world, and their fellow human beings:

  “This single question occupied us for the rest of the hour. They knew armed guards would be required to protect their compounds from the angry mobs. But how would they pay the guards once money was worthless? What would stop the guards from choosing their own leader? The billionaires considered using special combination locks on the food supply that only they knew. Or making guards wear disciplinary collars of some kind in return for their survival. Or maybe building robots to serve as guards and workers — if that technology could be developed in time.”

  Something to keep in mind if you ever find yourself fervently hoping that the world will be saved by billionaires.

  LinkedIn cofounder Reid Hoffman has said that more than half of Silicon Valley’s billionaires have invested in some type of “apocalypse insurance” such as an underground bunker to ensure they survive whatever disasters ensue from the status quo they currently benefit so immensely from. The New Yorker has published an article about this mega-rich doomsday prepper phenomenon as well. We may be sure that military forces aren’t the only ones planning on having eternally loyal killing machines protecting their interests going forward.

  We are ruled by warmongers and sociopaths, and none of them have healthy plans for our future. They are not kind, and they are not wise. They’re not even particularly intelligent. Unless we can find some way to pry their fingers from the steering wheel of our world so we can turn away from the direction we are headed, things will probably get very dark and scary.

  *  *  *

  My work is entirely reader-supported, so if you enjoyed this piece please consider sharing it around, following me on Facebook, Twitter, Soundcloud or YouTube, or throwing some money into my tip jar on Ko-fi, Patreon or Paypal. If you want to read more you can buy my books. The best way to make sure you see the stuff I publish is to subscribe to the mailing list for at my website or on Substack, which will get you an email notification for everything I publish. Everyone, racist platforms excluded, has my permission to republish, use or translate any part of this work (or anything else I’ve written) in any way they like free of charge. For more info on who I am, where I stand, and what I’m trying to do with this platform, click here.

  Bitcoin donations:1Ac7PCQXoQoLA9Sh8fhAgiU3PHA2EX5Zm2

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/14/2021 – 23:20

• India's Energy Crunch Intensifies As Power Supply Deficit Worst Since March 2016
  India’s Energy Crunch Intensifies As Power Supply Deficit Worst Since March 2016

  It’s now a fact that India is teetering on the edge of a power crisis as coal shortages have left power grids with the worst deficit in years. 

  This month, 80% of India’s 135 coal-fired plants had less than eight days of supplies — more than 50% of plants had two days of fuel left. For some context, the four-year average of coal inventory has been a little more than two weeks.  

  

  We noted India’s “persistent electricity shortages” have become more widespread since the start of October as coal-fired power plants can’t keep up with demand. 

  Reuters, citing data from grid operator Power System Operation Corporation (POSOCO), showed power supply dropped 750 million units short of demand throughout the first 12 days of October, primarily due to a coal shortage. The power deficit was the worst since March 2016, coming in at 1.6%. 

  Northern states such as Punjab, Rajasthan, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh, and the eastern states of Jharkhand and Bihar had some of the worst power supply deficits between 2.3% to 14.7%. 

  A combination of supply factors and crashing coal imports led to this month’s power crunch that may worsen as coal supplies tighten and prices surge ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter. 

  

  Coal-powered energy accounted for nearly 70% of power in early October, an increasing percentage as power generation from renewables declines. 

  If China is any guide, India might take steps to ration power to energy-intensive industries to maintain grid stability. 

  For those who don’t follow the coal sector closely, Coal India calls itself the world’s largest coal miner, and digs 80% of all coal in India. Beyond supplying coal-fired power plants, it serves **non-power** customers like steel, cement and other big industrial operations

  — Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) October 14, 2021

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  The energy crisis is worldwide, first in Europe and China and now spreading to India. There’s reason to believe electricity shortages and blackouts could be unleashed in the US this winter. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/14/2021 – 23:00

• Sanjay Gupta Tucks Tail Back At CNN After Disastrous Rogan Interview
  Sanjay Gupta Tucks Tail Back At CNN After Disastrous Rogan Interview

  Update (1715ET): To the surprise of absolutely nobody, CNN is in major damage control mode after Joe Rogan slammed the network over their coverage of his use of Ivermectin as part of a cocktail he used to treat Covid-19.

  CNN’s @DonLemon: “It is not a lie to say that [Ivermectin] is used as a horse de-wormer. I think that’s important. And it is not approved for Covid.”@drsanjaygupta: “Correct … If you look at the data, there is no evidence that it really works [against Covid].” pic.twitter.com/eDpJUxrsqY

  — Tom Elliott (@tomselliott) October 14, 2021

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  Note how CNN‘s framing is absolutely disingenuous – with Lemon suggesting they didn’t slander Rogan for taking ‘horse dewormer’ – whiled Gupta lied when he said there’s ‘no evidence that it [Ivermectin] really works’ against Covid.

  Just look at how often, casually, and blatantly CNN lies about people. And then, when one of their employees is forced to admit they lied when directly confronted by the person they lied about, they force him to go on air and humiliate himself by backtracking. CNN is utter shit. pic.twitter.com/UJwj1izWGJ

  — Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) October 14, 2021

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  Also, notice what a little worm Sanjay Gupta is. When he had to confront Rogan face to face, he admitted CNN lied about him and shouldn’t have said what they sad. Then, back on CNN, pressured by Lemon, he stuttered and obfuscated. Look at the difference:https://t.co/mrfjyuPA0v

  — Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) October 14, 2021

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  Absolutely pathetic.

  *  *  *

  Joe Rogan went off big on CNN during an interview with the network’s chief medical correspondent, Sanjay Gupta, who appeared on the star’s Spotify podcast on Wednesday to discuss a wide range of topics.

  

  During the exchange, Gupta conceded that his network’s framing of Ivermectin, a widely-prescribed anti-parasitic which has shown tremendous efficacy in treating Covid-19, was wrong.

  “Calling it a horse de-wormer is not the most flattering thing, I get that,” said Gupta.

  “It’s a lie on a news network – and it’s a lie that they’re conscious of. It’s not a mistake. They’re unfavorably framing it as veterinary medicine,” Rogan shot back.

  “Why would you say that when you’re talking about a drug that’s been given out to billions and billions of people? A drug that was responsible for one of the inventors winning the Nobel Prize in 2015?” the 54-year-old Rogan continued.

  “A drug that has been shown to stop viral replication in vitro – you know that, right? Why would they lie and say that’s horse de-wormer? I can afford people medicine, motherfucker. This is ridiculous.”

  Watch:

  Joe Rogan asks Sanjay Gupta if it bothers him that CNN outright lied about Rogan taking horse dewormer to recover from covid. This is fantastic: pic.twitter.com/PEgJqIXhSD

  — Clay Travis (@ClayTravis) October 14, 2021

  Now that CNN’s resident medical expert has corrected this, perhaps @Acosta would like to as well.

  — Stephen L. Miller (@redsteeze) October 14, 2021

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  Opining further on Rogan’s rough-up is Glenn Greenwald:

  Of course the usual media villains spread disinformation and unhinged conspiracy theories: QAnon boards, Facebook boomers, 4Chan teenagers.

  But corporate media outlets do exactly the same — as a model, on purpose — and it’s far more damaging because their platform is bigger.

  — Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) October 14, 2021

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  This is not hyperbole: in the liberal sector of the corporate media — by far the largest and most dominant wing — lying and disinformation are not prohibited or even frowned up. It’s encouraged and rewarded, as long as it’s directed at the ideological enemies of their audience.

  — Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) October 14, 2021

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  This is why there is no higher priority for liberal corporate outlets – literally no higher priority – than inducing more and more internet censorship. They want to silence the independent voices documenting their lies, and eliminate all competitors to create a captive audience.

  — Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) October 14, 2021

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  That Rogan clip I posted above — from an anonymous small Twitter account — already has 1.8 million views. The real number is way higher since others also posted it. It’s been years since CNN got anywhere close to 1.8 million watching their network. Therein lies the desperation.

  — Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) October 14, 2021

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  Meanwhile, as we noted last month regarding Ivermectin (and worth repeating):

  This widely prescribed anti-parasitic which is also used in horses has shown massive efficacy worldwide in the treatment of mild and moderate cases of Covid-19, plus as a prophylactic. India’s Uttar Pradesh province, with a population of over 200 million, says that widespread early use of Ivermectin ‘helped keep positivity [and] deaths low.’

  

  Separately, there have been several studies funded by the Indian government, primarily conducted through their largest govt. public medical university (AIIMS).

  • Role of ivermectin in the prevention of SARS-CoV-2 infection among healthcare workers in India: A matched case-control study (source)

  Conclusion: Two-dose ivermectin prophylaxis at a dose of 300 μg/kg with a gap of 72 hours was associated with a 73% reduction of SARS-CoV-2 infection among healthcare workers for the following month.

  • Ivermectin as a potential treatment for mild to moderate COVID-19 – A double blind randomized placebo-controlled trial (source)

  Conclusion: There was no difference in the primary outcome i.e. negative RT-PCR status on day 6 of admission with the use of ivermectin. However, a significantly higher proportion of patients were discharged alive from the hospital when they received ivermectin.

  • Clinical Research Report Ivermectin in combination with doxycycline for treating COVID-19 symptoms: a randomized trial (source, double-blind randomized, peer-reviewed)

  Discussion: In the present study, patients with mild or moderate COVID-19 infection treated with ivermectin in combination with doxycycline generally recovered 2 days earlier than those treated with placebo. The proportion of patients responding within 7 days of treatment was significantly higher in the treatment group than in the placebo group. The proportions of patients who remained symptomatic after 12 days of illness and who experienced disease progression were significantly lower in the treatment group than in the placebo group.

  

  Here are more human studies from other countries on the ‘horse dewormer’:

   

  Peru:

  • Sharp Reductions in COVID-19 Case Fatalities and Excess Deaths in Peru in Close Time Conjunction, State-By-State, with Ivermectin Treatments (source, peer-reviewed, University of Toronto, Universidad EAFIT)

  For the 24 states with early IVM treatment (and Lima), excess deaths dropped 59% (25%) at +30 days and 75% (25%) at +45 days after day of peak deaths. Case fatalities likewise dropped sharply in all states but Lima

  Spain:

  • The effect of early treatment with ivermectin on viral load, symptoms and humoral response in patients with non-severe COVID-19: A pilot, double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized clinical trial (source, University of Barcelona, peer-reviewed)

  Findings: Patients in the ivermectin group recovered earlier from hyposmia/anosmia (76 vs 158 patient-days; p < 0.001).

  Bengladesh:

  • A Comparative Study on Ivermectin-Doxycycline and Hydroxychloroquine-Azithromycin Therapy on COVID-19 Patients (source – peer reviewed, though not govt funded)

  Conclusion: According  to  our  study,  the  Ivermectin-Doxycycline combination therapy has better symptomatic relief, shortened recovery duration, fewer adverse effects, and superior patient compliance compared to the Hydroxychloroquine-Azithromycin combination. Based on this  study’s  outcomes,  the  Ivermectin-Doxycycline  combination  is  a  superior  choice  for  treating  patients  with  mild to moderate COVID-19 disease.

  • A five-day course of ivermectin for the treatment of COVID-19 may reduce the duration of illness (source, peer-reviewed double blind randomized, though small sample size)

  Discussion: A 5-day course of ivermectin resulted in an earlier clearance of the virus compared to placebo (p = 0.005), thus indicating that early intervention with this agent may limit viral replication within the host. In the 5-day ivermectin group, there was a significant drop in CRP and LDH by day 7, which are indicators of disease severity.

  Meanwhile, There are currently 76 ongoing or completed clinical trials on Ivermectin around the world. Below are the results of 32 which have been completed. One can visit ivermeta.com and dig down on any of these / read the entire study. The site recommends Ivermectin in conjunction with vaccines to confer the best protection against Covid-19, however we’ll leave that to you and your doctor to discuss.

  

  Yet doctors who advocate for Ivermectin are ridiculed by the media (more here and here and here).

  The MSM swarmed over ‘horse paste overdoses’  for weeks after a handful cases nationwide (and no deaths) – including an outright lie amplified by Rolling Stone which they were forced to correct after the hospital in question denied the claim.

  Meanwhile, the likes of Maddow, Don Lemon and Chris Hayes jumped right on the propaganda bandwagon – with Maddow promoting the debunked ER story in a tweet she refuses to delete – and Twitter refuses to censor for misinformation.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/14/2021 – 22:43

• Is America Becoming Rome Versus Byzantium?
  Is America Becoming Rome Versus Byzantium?

  Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via The Epoch Times,

  In A.D. 286 the Roman emperor Diocletian split in half the huge Roman Empire administratively—and peacefully—under the control of two emperors.

  A Western empire included much of modern-day Western Europe and northwest Africa. The Eastern half controlled Eastern Europe and parts of Asia and northeastern Africa.

  By 330 the Emperor Constantine institutionalized that split by moving the empire’s capital from Rome to his new imperial city of Constantinople, founded on the site of the old Greek polis of Byzantium.

  The two administrative halves of the once huge empire continued to drift apart.

  

  Soon there arose two increasingly different, though still kindred versions, of a once unified Romanity.

  The Western empire eventually collapsed into chaos by the latter fifth century A.D.

  Yet the Roman eastern half survived for nearly 1,000 years. It was soon known as the Byzantine Empire, until overwhelmed by the Ottoman Turks in 1453 A.D.

  Historians still disagree over why the East endured while the West crumbled. And they cite the various roles of differing geography, border challenges, tribal enemies, and internal challenges.

  We moderns certainly have developed unfair stereotypes of a supposedly decadent late imperial Rome of Hollywood sensationalism that deserved its end. And we likewise mistakenly typecast a rigid, ultra-orthodox bureaucratic “Byzantine” alternative that supposedly grew more reactionary to survive in a rough neighborhood.

  Yet in both cases, separate geography multiplied the growing differences between a Greek-speaking, Orthodox Christian and older civilization in the east, versus a more or less polyglot and often fractious Christianity in the Latin West.

  Byzantium held firm against ancient neighboring Persian, Middle Eastern, and Egyptian rivals. But the West disintegrated into a tribal amalgam of its own former peoples.

  Unlike the West, the glue that held the East together against centuries of foreign enemies, was the revered idea of an ancient and uncompromising Hellenism—the preservation of a common, holistic Greek language, religion, culture, and history.

  By A.D. 600, at a time when the West had long ago fragmented into tribes and proto-European kingdoms, the jewel at Constantinople was the nerve center of the most impressive civilization in the world, stretching from the Eastern Asia Minor to southern Italy.

  There is now much talk of a new American red state/blue state split – and even wild threats of another Civil War.

  

  Certainly, millions of Americans yearly self-select, disengage from their political opposites and make moves based on diverging ideology, culture, politics, religiosity or lack of it, and differing views of the American past.

  More conservative traditionalists head for the interior between the coasts, where there is usually smaller government, fewer taxes, more religiosity, and unapologetic traditionalists.

  These modern Byzantines are more apt to define their patriotism by honoring ancient customs and rituals—standing for the national anthem, attending church services on Sundays, demonstrating reverence for American history and its heroes, and emphasizing the nuclear family.

  Immigration in fly-over country is still defined as melting pot assimilation and integration of new arrivals into the body politic of a hallowed and enduring America.

  While red states welcome change, they believe America never had to be perfect to be good. It will always survive, but only if it sticks to its 234-year-old Constitution, stays united by the English language, and assimilates newcomers into an enduring and exceptional American culture.

  In contrast, the more liberal blue state antithesis is richer from globalist wealth. The west coast from Seattle to San Diego profits from trade with a thriving Asia. It is bookended by the east coast window on the European Union from Boston to Miami.

  The great research universities of the Ivy League, MIT, Caltech, Stanford, and the University of California system are bicoastal. Just as Rome was once the iconic center of the entire Roman project, so blue Washington, D.C., is the nerve center for big-government America.

  The salad bowl is the bicoastal model for immigration. Newcomers can retain and reboot their former cultural identities.

  Religion is less orthodox; atheism and agnosticism are almost the norm. And most of the recent social movements of American feminism, transgenderism, and critical race theory grew out of coastal urbanity and academia.

  Foreigners see blue coastal Americans as the more vibrant, sophisticated, cosmopolitan—and reckless—culture, its vast wealth predicated on technology, information, communications, finance, media, education, and entertainment.

  In turn, they concede that the vast red interior—with about the same population as blue America but with vastly greater area—is the more pragmatic, predictable and home to the food, fuels, ores, and material production of America.

  Our Byzantine interior and Roman coasts are quite differently interpreting their shared American heritage as they increasingly plot radically divergent courses to survive in scary times.

  But as in the past, it is far more likely that one state model will prove unsustainable and collapse than it is that either region would ever start a civil war.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/14/2021 – 22:40

• Anti-Trump Neocons Led By Ex-CIA Operative To Back Democrats In Midterms
  Anti-Trump Neocons Led By Ex-CIA Operative To Back Democrats In Midterms

  A group of Republicans who hate all things Trump are set to endorse a slate of Democratic lawmakers throughout next year’s midterm election season in a bid to stop the Republican party from regaining control of Congress.

  Led in part by former CIA counterintelligence officer and failed 2016 Reoublican presidential candidate Evan McMullin (now an independent), the “Renew America Movement” (RAM) claims to support “principled Democrats, Republicans, and Independents who have the courage to stand up to political extremists in races across the country.”

  

  ‘Founding signatories‘ include notable neocons and anti-Trumpers McMullin, Anthony Scaramucci, George Conway, Max Boot, Michael Hayden, Michael Chertoff, Tom Ridge and dozens of others.

  Trump, meanwhile, has endorsed several candidates who are mounting primary challenges against GOP lawmakers who voted to impeach him over the Jan. 6 Capitol riots – such as Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski, according to Reuters.

  RAM, whose leadership includes former Republican Governors Christine Todd Whitman of New Jersey and Bill Weld of Massachusetts, said supporting moderate candidates is vital to safeguarding American democracy. -Reuters

  “With the mounting threats to our democracy and Constitution, we need people who work proactively to lead their party and the country away from the political extremes,” the group’s national political director, Joel Searby, told the outlet.

  So far, RAM will endorse and/or campaign for 11 moderate Democrats, 9 moderate Republians and one independent running in next year’s midterm elections. Those backed include Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA), Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) and Sen. Mark Kelley (D-AZ).

  Unsurprisingly, they’re also supporting Liz Cheney (R-WY) and Adam Kinzinger (R-IL).

  While claiming to ‘lead the country away from the political extremes,’ we note that the group doesn’t seem to be opposing any far-left Democratic socialists – arguably the most ‘politically extreme’ faction in DC.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/14/2021 – 22:20

• Microsoft To Shut Down LinkedIn In China Following Censorship Criticism
  Microsoft To Shut Down LinkedIn In China Following Censorship Criticism

  Authored by Eva Fu via The Epoch Times,

  Microsoft is abandoning its local version of LinkedIn in China, a move that would close off the last major U.S.-owned networking platforms remaining in the country.

  

  LinkedIn entered mainland China in 2014, a country known for its highly restrictive censorship practices set by the ruling Communist Party. The platform now boasts about 53 million local users, or roughly 7 percent of its global total.

  But the professional networking site has recently drawn growing criticism over its move to block the profiles of researchers and others whose work involves China.

  In a statement on Oct. 14, LinkedIn said that it made the decision to discontinue the seven-year venture upon facing “a significantly more challenging operating environment and greater compliance requirements in China.”

  In its place, LinkedIn said it will later this year set up a new job search application called InJobs without a social feed or post sharing features.

  “While we’ve found success in helping Chinese members find jobs and economic opportunity, we have not found that same level of success in the more social aspects of sharing and staying informed,” the company statement said.

  China has some of the most strictest control over the internet. Twitter and Facebook were banned more than a decade ago. Google exited the country in 2010, four years after launching a self-censored search engine there.

  LinkedIn has made a number of controversial moves since its entry to the Chinese market that critics deem as appeasement to Beijing. That includes blocking coverage about 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, eliminating the presence of a Tiananmen activist, and freezing the account of a China critic after he called the Chinese regime a “repressive dictatorship” and the state media “propaganda mouthpieces.”

  Scrutiny over the platform’s censorship practices has intensified since June. On the morning of June 3, the eve of the anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre, staff members from The Epoch Times based in the United States, Sweden, Turkey, and elsewhere were informed by the company that their profiles would be hidden in China.

  

  A redacted LinkedIn message received by employees of The Epoch Times on June 3, 2021. (Screenshot via LinkedIn)

  More journalists and researchers have received similar messages over the following months. Affected users were also told that their account in China could be restored if they agreed to remove unspecified content.

  Asked by The Epoch Times at the time, the company said that “[d]ue to local legal requirements within China, the profiles and activity of some LinkedIn members associated with certain publishing organizations are not visible within China at this time.”

  It further pointed to a 2014 statement from its former CEO Jeff Weiner, who argued that despite LinkedIn’s support for freedom of expression, its absence from China would deny Chinese users the opportunity to “pursue and realize the economic opportunities, dreams, and rights most important to them.”

  The fresh wave of censorship by the platform has caught U.S. lawmakers’ attention.

  “LinkedIn’s willingness to carry water for the Chinese regime raises questions about how Microsoft became the only technology company with significant access to the Chinese market,” Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.) wrote in a Sept. 24 letter.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/14/2021 – 22:00

• Biden Admin Reinstates Andrew McCabe's Full Pension After 2018 Firing For Lying Under Oath
  Biden Admin Reinstates Andrew McCabe’s Full Pension After 2018 Firing For Lying Under Oath

  Andrew McCabe, the disgraced Russiagate FBI agent who lied four times to the DOJ and FBI, will receive his full pension more than three years after he was fired by the Justice Department, according to the New York Times. Under the terms of a settlement stemming from a lawsuit McCable filed in 2019 over his firing, he will also receive around $200,000 in missed pension payments.

  The DOJ has also agreed to expunge any mention of his firing from FBI personnel records, and that he would receive special cuff links given to senior executives, along with a plaque bearing his mounted badge and FBI credentials.

  The Justice Department did not admit any wrongdoing. But the settlement amounted to a rejection by the Biden administration of how Mr. McCabe’s case had been handled under Mr. Trump, who perceived Mr. McCabe as one of his so-called deep-state enemies and repeatedly attacked him. A notice of the lawsuit’s dismissal was also filed in federal court. -NYT

  McCabe’s lawyers will also receive over $500,000 in legal fees, courtesy of the US taxpayer.

  This, of course, is on top of more than $540,000 he got from just one of several GoFundMe campaigns, as well as income from his 2019 book, “The Threat.”

  

  McCabe, who was caught lying four times to the DOJ and FBI (twice while under oath) over leaks to the press, was fired in March, 2017 –  days before he was set to receive his full pension.

  Specifically, McCabe authorized an FBI spokesman and attorney to tell Devlin Barrett of the Wall St. Journal, just days before the 2016 election, that the FBI had not put the brakes on a separate investigation into the Clinton Foundation – at a time in which McCabe was coming under fire for his wife taking a $467,500 campaign contribution from Clinton proxy pal, Terry McAuliffe. 

  During a November, 2020 appearance before the Senate Judiciary Committee, McCable dismissed the FBI’s abuse of power under his watch as mere mistakes.

  McCabe said he was “shocked” by the “significant number of errors and failures related to the FISA [Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act] applications” to spy on Carter Page, a former adviser on candidate Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign. His claim was reminiscent of Captain Renault in the film “Casablanca,” who pretended to be “shocked, shocked” at the gambling in Rick’s Cafe as he pocketed his winnings. –Fox News

  McCabe also never bothered to speak with Christopher Steele – the former UK spy ultimately paid by the 2016 Hillary Clinton presidential campaign to fabricate a now-discredited dossier designed to smear then-candidate Donald Trump. McCabe knew the dossier was fake before the election and did nothing, claiming he was oblivious to the exculpatory evidence before the agency used the dossier when applying for a surveillance warrant from the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISC).

  Before Trump’s inauguration in January 2017, McCabe’s agents tracked down Steele’s main source, Igor Danchenko, who promptly discredited the dossier as nothing more than multiple hearsays and rank speculation, some of which emanated from Danchenko’s drinking buddies.

  It was also determined that parts of the dossier were likely Russian disinformation and that the Russia Hoax itself was invented by none other than Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton to smear Republican candidate Trump with an alleged scandal.  –Fox News

  Also recall that McCabe’s team, under Director Comey, heavily altered the language of the FBI’s 2016 opinion concerning Hillary Clinton’s mishandling of classified information – effectively “decriminalizing” her conduct. Comey’s original draft – using the term “grossly negligent” would have legally required that the FBI recommended charges against Clinton. Instead, McCabe’s team changed it to “extremely careless” – a legally meaningless term.

  According to documents produced by the FBI, FBI employees exchanged proposed edits to the draft statement. On May 6, Deputy Director McCabe forwarded the draft statement to other senior FBI employees, including Peter Strzok, E.W. Priestap, Jonathan Moffa, and an employee on the Office of General Counsel whose name has been redacted. While the precise dates of the edits and identities of the editors are not apparent from the documents, the edits appear to change the tone and substance of Director Comey’s statement in at least three respects. –Letter from Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI)

  After he was fired, McCabe said he was “confused and distracted” when he was talking to investigators, and charges were never filed against him. Former Trump National Security Adviser Gen. Mike Flynn was notably not afforded the same luxury.

  “I answered questions as completely and accurately as I could. And when I realized that some of my answers were not fully accurate or may have been misunderstood, I took the initiative to correct them,” McCabe wrote in a Washington Post op-ed.

  In the wake of his firing, McCabe – an central figure in the Trump-Russia investigation, received over $540,000 from just one of several GoFundMe campaigns.

  Looks like Andy’s in the club…

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/14/2021 – 21:40

• Navy Announces Plans To Expel Those Refusing Covid Vaccine, Revoke Benefits
  Navy Announces Plans To Expel Those Refusing Covid Vaccine, Revoke Benefits

  At the end of August the Pentagon initially announced a mandate for military personnel across all armed service branches, ordering them to “immediately begin” Covid vaccination. A memo issued by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin at the time directed the Secretaries of the Military Departments to “immediately begin full vaccination of all members of the Armed Forces under DoD authority on active duty or in the Ready Reserve, including the National Guard, who are not fully vaccinated against COVID-19.”

  However, when the mandate went out it remained unclear precisely what repercussions military members would face if they don’t comply – this also as a number of lawsuits have since been filed against the DoD by troops arguing that the order violates individual medical freedom. On Thursday the US Navy made it clear to their personnel: receive the jab by November 28 for be expelled from the service. 

  

  “With Covid-19 vaccines now mandatory for all military members, the Navy has announced plans to start processing for discharge those who refuse vaccination without a pending or approved exemption,” the US Navy said in the statement.

  The Pentagon had so far remained ambiguous over whether servicemembers would actually be booted after the mandate cut-off date. With Thursday’s Navy announcement, other branches are expected to soon follow suit.

  The AFP notes that “The navy said that 98 percent of its 350,000 active duty members had begun or completed the vaccination process.” The rate among all branches combined is about equal – or just under this, but Pentagon officials worry about lagging vaccination rates in the reserves, given recent reports indicate just 80% of the reserves have had at least one dose. 

  The AFP report underscores that if official Pentagon policy becomes to expel troops across the board for refusing the shot, this could create a significant problem for US defense readiness, given it would inevitably involve a mass exit of troops.

  US Navy planning to kick out sailors who refuse covid vaccine and “will receive no lower than a general discharge under honorable conditions,” Navy statement says. Active-duty has until Nov. 28 to be fully vaccinated. Reserve forces: Dec. 28th. 98% of active-duty Navy vaccinated

  — Lucas Tomlinson (@LucasFoxNews) October 14, 2021

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  “If all the services take the same hard line that the navy is taking, it risks losing as many as 46,000 troops, though presumably more will accept vaccinations before the deadline,” the report underscores. 

  What remains is the question of the terms under which they would be discharged at the end of November. The Navy said in the Thursday announcement those kicked out for not taking the vaccine “will receive no lower than a general discharge under honorable conditions.” 

  However, there could be penalties like being forced to pay back certain training and education costs – or more significantly the loss of post military service benefits, as the official Navy guidance spells out: “This type of discharge could result in the loss of some veterans’ benefits.”

  The Hill details based on the statement that processing discharges might begin immediately: 

  With the new guidelines in place, administrative actions can begin immediately against those who refuse the vaccine who do not have a pending or approved exemption request.

  Those who refuse the vaccine will not be allowed to be promoted, advance, reenlist, or execute orders, with the exception of separation orders, until the CCDA has completed disposition of their case, the guidance notes.

  Why did the US Navy just say it will expel any personnel who refuses to get vaccinated — won’t that cripple our defenses like vaccine mandates have crippled our airlines?

  🤔

  — Paul A. Szypula (@Bubblebathgirl) October 14, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Interestingly, the Navy while issuing the harsh punitive plan of action says it will recognize religious exemptions. Likely pastors, priests, and rabbis near military bases and at naval ports might begin to see a flood of random phone calls from “vaccine hesitant” military members seeking a way out of the impasse. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/14/2021 – 21:20

• Average New Car Prices Hit Record High
  Average New Car Prices Hit Record High

  New car prices hit a new all-time high in September due primarily to snarled supply chains, according to Kelley Blue Book.

  At $45k, the average transaction price for a new car was up 12.1% (or $4,872) from one year ago in September and monthly up 3.7% (or $1,613) from August. Here are car prices for individual carmakers. 

  

  “The record-high prices in September are mostly a result of the mix of vehicles sold,” said Kayla Reynolds, an analyst for Cox Automotive. 

  “Midsize SUV sales jumped in September compared to August, and full-size pickup share moved up as well. Sales of lower-priced compact and midsize cars, which had been commanding more share during the summer, faded in September,” Reynolds said. 

  All-time-high prices come as the entire industry endures a slowdown in sales. Total sales last month were approximately a million cars, a 7.3% monthly decrease, and one of the lowest volumes in the past decade.

  Dwindling sales are likely a function of two things, a worldwide shortage of microchips that have shuttered many automobile factors and possibly higher prices are creating demand destruction among buyers. 

  Over the last year, dealership inventories have been tight due to supply chain difficulties and forced dealers to reduce incentives and discounts to prospective car buyers. Incentives were only 5.2% of the average transaction price last month, compared with 10% a year ago. 

  Another issue for buyers is the staggering increase in used cars, which hit a record high last month. 

  

  To sum up, fewer cars were sold last month, but prices continue to hit record highs that may suggest consumers are becoming discouraged to buy because of affordability issues. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/14/2021 – 21:00

• John Durham & The Amazing Disappearing DNC Hack
  John Durham & The Amazing Disappearing DNC Hack

  Authored by George Parry via Spectator.org,

  Evidence grows that the alleged Russian hacking of the DNC server in 2016 was an inside job…

  

  This is the fifth in a series of articles analyzing the 27 page federal grand jury indictment charging lawyer Michael Sussmann with making a false statement to the FBI.

  As stated in the fourth article, when the FBI learned of the alleged hack of the Democratic National Committee’s (“DNC”) emails, it asked to examine the server.

  In fact, at the same time as the alleged DNC hack, there were similar reports regarding the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s (“DCCC”) server as well as DNC Chairman John Podesta’s personal email devices.

  In testimony before the Senate, FBI Director James Comey stated the following:

  Question (by Senator Burr): Did the FBI request access to those devices [the servers and Podesta’s devices] to perform forensics on?

  A: Yes, we did.

  Q: And would that access have provided intelligence or information helpful to your investigation in possibly finding … including to the Intelligence Community Assessment?

  A: Our forensics folks would always prefer to get access to the original device or server that’s involved. So, it’s the best evidence.

  Q: Were you given access to do the forensics on those servers?

  A: We were not. We were … a highly respected private company eventually got access and shared with us what they saw there.

  Q: But is that typically the way the FBI would prefer to do the forensics or would your forensic unit rather see the servers and do the forensics themselves?

  A: We always prefer to have access hands on ourselves, if that’s possible.

  Q: Do you know why you were denied access to those servers?

  A: I don’t know for sure. Um, I don’t know for sure.

  Q: Was there one request or multiple requests?

  A: Multiple requests at different levels and ultimately what was agreed to is that the private company would share with us what they saw.

  So, instead of using a search warrant or some other legal process to perform a direct, hands on forensic examination of the DNC server, the FBI agreed to base its investigation on the findings of a private cybersecurity company. And, as discussed in the previous article, that company, CrowdStrike, was to do the investigation pursuant to its contract with Michael Sussmann of Perkins Coie, the law firm that represented Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign.

  Think about that. When presented with allegations of a devastating foreign cyber attack on one of the two major political parties, the FBI meekly agreed to allow CrowdStrike and Perkins Coie to do the forensic examination and, for all intents and purposes, run the investigation.

  Not even the lowliest local police department would agree to such an absurd arrangement. What if this was a murder case? Would the Smallville PD allow a private investigator and lawyer hired by the murder victim’s family to process the crime scene, do the autopsy, and tell the police and district attorney what they supposedly found? Wouldn’t such findings be subject to attack in court as coming from sources that may have had an interest in shaping and tailoring the investigative results to suit the needs and desires of their client? Wouldn’t there be legal problems with the evidence’s provenance, chain of custody, and the reliability and comprehensiveness of the investigative work that supposedly produced it? Would the police and district attorney ever allow themselves to get roped into such a bizarre, ridiculous, nightmarish, and self-defeating arrangement?

  Of course not. No rational person or organization intent on conducting a serious investigation would.

  But that, in effect, is precisely what the FBI — the self-proclaimed greatest investigative agency in the world — did when faced with this purportedly monumental foreign attack on the Democrat Party apparatus.

  Now keep Comey’s testimony in focus as we review the remarkable appearance of Shawn Henry, President of CrowdStrike Services, before the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence (“HPSCI”).

  The HPSCI convened in closed executive session on December 5, 2017. Present were Henry, the Committee members and staff, as well as a lawyer representing CrowdStrike and a lawyer from Perkins Coie.

  Under questioning, Henry confirmed that CrowdStrike’s examination of the DNC server was done pursuant to its contract with Michael Sussmann of Perkins Coie. Consequently, as explained by the Perkins Coie lawyer, CrowdStrike’s findings were protected by the attorney-client privilege. Therefore, it would be up to Perkins Coie, acting on behalf of the DNC, to decide what information Henry would be allowed to share with the HPSCI.

  First up was Rep. Chris Stewart (R-UT) who wanted to know why the FBI hadn’t taken “the lead in this investigation.”

  And that’s when the fun and games began.

  Once it was established that the FBI did not have access to the server, Stewart asked, “Could they [the FBI] conduct their own investigation in a thorough fashion without access to the actual hardware?”

  To that Henry went out on a limb and firmly replied, “Maybe.”

  Undeterred, Stewart asked, “Are you comfortable that someone could complete a thorough investigation, using other tools, without direct access to the hardware or equipment?”

  Up to the challenge, Henry proceeded to answer a question that wasn’t asked.

  “Could they come to a conclusion? You’re asking a nuanced question. And I’m not being cagey. I want to be clear, because this is an important point.”

  But would it be better if the FBI had access?

  Henry replied, “The more information you have access to, the better any investigation. But it doesn’t mean that a lack of a piece of information precludes you from coming to a conclusion.”

  The determined Stewart tried again. If you “could have a better investigation if you had access to all of the equipment or hardware” would there be “reasons for not making that available [to the FBI] that override the benefit of having a more conclusive investigation?”

  To which Henry replied, “You’re asking me to speculate. I don’t know the answer.”

  At which point, an exasperated Stewart said to the Perkins Coie lawyer, “By the way, you need to pay him well, because he’s obviously serving you well today as you guys have your conversations back and forth.”

  

  Rep. Chris Stewart (R-UT) in 2019

  So just what evidence did CrowdStrike find on the DNC server?

  Over the course of the hearing, Henry grudgingly gave ground with answers such as these:

  “Counsel just reminded me that, as it relates to the DNC, we have indicators that data [the DNC emails] was (sic) exfiltrated [taken by hackers off the server]. We did not have concrete evidence that data was (sic) exfiltrated from the DNC, but we have indicators that it was exfiltrated…. There’s not evidence that they were actually exfiltrated. There’s circumstantial evidence … we didn’t have direct evidence. But we made a conclusion that data left the network.” (Emphasis added.)

  Okay, there was no direct, concrete, or other proof that the emails were actually taken from the DNC computer. But what were these “indicators” that led CrowdStrike to conclude that the emails were hacked?

  According to Henry, CrowdStrike found “indicators of [server] compromise, which are pieces of malware, et cetera.” He then explained that CrowdStrike’s investigative report states that the data [emails] were “staged for exfiltration” by the purported Russian hacker.

  He added, “There are times when we can see data exfiltrated, and we can say conclusively. But in this case, it appears that it (sic) was set up to be exfiltrated, but we just don’t have the evidence that says it actually left.” (Emphasis added.)

  Got that? With no evidence that the emails were actually hacked, CrowdStrike nevertheless concluded that the Russians hacked the emails.

  Despite the spin, the whole DNC hack story had just flatlined.

  But there was one more issue to be addressed: exactly what evidence was shared with the FBI?

  I will spare you the tedious details of the interrogation. The questioners kept asking Henry what information CrowdStrike provided to the FBI, and he repeatedly said that they got whatever they asked for.

  But the problem with this line of questioning is that it failed to consider the fact that CrowdStrike was working for Perkins Coie. Consequently, the questions should have focused on what information Perkins Coie allowed to be transmitted to the FBI.

  The closest anyone came to getting at this issue was when Rep. Mike Conaway (R-TX) asked, “Did the DNC restrict anything that you shared with the FBI or that the FBI asked for? Did they tell you ‘no’ at any point?”

  Henry replied, “No, I have no recollection. Again, I know that there are redacted reports and there was some restriction on the reports. That’s the only thing that I can recall.”

  Wait. What? Redacted? Restriction? Does this mean that the DNC withheld some of CrowdStrike’s findings and work product from the FBI?

  The answer to that question can be found lurking in the pre-trial pleadings in the case of United States v. Roger Stone. In an effort to debunk the DNC hack story, Stone’s lawyers requested that the Department of Justice produce the full, unredacted CrowdStrike investigative report.

  And that’s when the cowpie hit the fan. It turned out that, in addition to not examining the DNC server, neither the FBI nor the DOJ actually saw the full, final CrowdStrike report.

  The following is lifted directly from the prosecution’s response to Stone’s discovery request:

  

  Ponder  that carefully. The referenced “counsel for the DNC and DCCC” is Perkins Coie. The reports provided were marked “draft” and had redactions. But the FBI and DOJ had the assurances of Perkins Coie that the  drafts were, in fact, the last version of the report and “no redacted information concerned the attribution of the attack to Russian actors.”

  So, was there a hack of the DNC server? Don’t ask the FBI or the DOJ. They only know what Perkins Coie — which was representing a client that was heavily invested in spreading the Russian hack story — allowed them to know.

  But thanks to the release of Shawn Henry’s testimony before the HPSCI, what we now know is that CrowdStrike never found any “direct,” “concrete,” or other evidence that proves the DNC emails “actually left” the DNC server.

  Or, as we used to say in the old Justice Department: turn out the lights, the party’s over.

  There’s more to come, but this article is already too long.

  So stay tuned for the next episode.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/14/2021 – 20:40

• Brace For A Retail Sales Miss
  Brace For A Retail Sales Miss

  Last month, the August retail sales surge was a surprise to many… but not to us. With consensus expecting a modest drop in both headline and core, we tweeted moments before the data was revealed to expect a “big retail sales beat.”

  Expect a big retail sales beat pic.twitter.com/tZbpFHYTMi

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 16, 2021

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  How did we know? Because Bank of America, which instead of relying on the hive “knowledge” of a handful of recent Econ PhD grads and a reversion to the mean impulse uses real-time credit and debit card spending data to asses precisely how much Americans are spending at any given moment, knew, and in its preview of the September retail sales print, the bank correctly forecast a big beat.

  It wasn’t the first time BofA was right: in fact the bank has been accurate every single month since this spring, usually going against the onsensus herd and coming on top every single time like in August, when it correctly predicted a big drop in the July print…

  

  … the month prior when it and consensus agreed, and both were spot on…

  

  … the month before when BofA once again was correct in calling for a sharp drop and consensus was wrong…

  

  … one month earlier as well…

  

  … and so on.

  In short, when it comes to predicting the upcoming retail sales print, toss consensus which has been wrong on 5 out of 6 previous occasions, and listen to the flawless BofA.

  So what does the bank forecast the Census Bureau will report tomorrow at 830 when the September retail sales data drop? Well, it will be another miss, with headline coming in about three times worse than the consensus est of -0.2% and ex-autos coming in flat, also missing estimates of a 0.4% bounce.

  

  According to BofA, retail sales ex-autos were unchanged month over month seasonally adjusted (SA) in September.

  

  After accounting for the sharp collapse in unit auto sales to 12.2 million saar (seasonally adjusted annualized rate), as measured by Wards, BofA predicts that tomorrow’s Census Bureau total retail sales will end up down -0.6% mom SA. This follows the sharp swings over the prior two months which owed to a variety of special factors including the timing of the Prime Day promotions.

  While the delta between BofA data and Census is small, in a market where a miss is a miss, and a beat is a beat, will certainly be felt. This is how the delta between BofA’s numbers and the Census Burea has looked over time.

  

  In any case, BofA’s chief economist Michelle Meyer contends that this month’s report should give us a cleaner picture of the consumer.

  Drilling deeper, within retail ex-autos, spending on furniture and building materials staged a comeback, reflecting the latest turn higher in home sales. BofA also observed a pop in spending on airfare, consistent with the weekly data, working to offset the sharp drop in August. However, spending on lodging continued to contract mom SA (travel related spending is not in the retail ex-autos aggregate).

  

  Also in September, spending at daycare centers was 52% above last year’s level and only 13% below the same time in 2019. BofA sees this as an encouraging sign as reliable childcare is critical for the recovery of the labor force.

  

  While retail sales may miss consensus, it will be modest. Meanwhile, the good news and confirmation that the US consumer remains generally strong, BofA continues to see gains in leisure spending with spending on travel and entertainment, in particular, improving. The bank’s aggregate for leisure spending is running at 1% over a 2-year period, up from the recent low of -8% in mid Sept.

  

  The improvement is not felt evenly across the country, however: in NY and PA spending on entertainment services has been particularly weak (-20% and -12% over a 2-year period, respectively) vs. FL where entertainment is up 16% over a 2-year period.

  Once again, it is the south that knows how to party while the northeast excels mostly in locking itself down.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/14/2021 – 20:20

• Treasury Slams 'Misinformation' Over $600 Bank Reporting Provision
  Treasury Slams ‘Misinformation’ Over $600 Bank Reporting Provision

  The US Treasury Department slammed “misinformation” over a provision in President Joe Biden’s tax plan which would require banks to report aggregate inflows and outflows of at least over $600 to the IRS.

  

  “Congressional consideration of this proposal has been marred by misinformation, as opponents have elevated the pernicious myth that banks will have to report all individual customers’ transactions to the IRS,” said Treasury deputy assistant secretary for economic policy, Natasha Sarin in a Thursday blog post. “This is unequivocally false, and an incorrect representation of the proposals under consideration.”

  So it won’t be ‘all’ customers.

  As Bloomberg suggests, “The plan would require financial institutions to report information about some bank accounts to the Internal Revenue Service in an effort to determine if Americans are underreporting their income on their tax forms.”

  While the blog post offered no clarity on who exactly would be targeted by the $600 provision, we can probably assume they mean ‘people who pay taxes.’

  According to the Tax Policy Center, 61% of Americans paid no federal income taxes in 2020, up from 47% .

  “This proposal has been seriously mischaracterized,” said Treasury Secretary Janey Yellen in a Tuesday interview with CBS Evening News.

  Of course, despite what the Treasury says, Democrats have been walking it back:

  House Democrats excluded the idea from their version of the tax-and-spending bill they wrote last month, partly because of opposition from members in their own party. However, Democratic leaders continue to work on the plan, which could raise hundreds of billions of dollars to fund an expansion of social programs.

  House Ways and Means Chairman Richard Neal and Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden have said they are working on scaling back the administration’s plan so that only account flows totaling $10,000 or more would be reported and other carveouts so that only high-income taxpayers would be in the scope of the plan. Lawmakers are looking at ways to exclude some common transactions, such as payroll deposits or mortgage payment withdrawals. –Bloomberg

  According to the Independent Community Bankers of America, a banking trade group, the Treasury’s proposal violates consumers’ privacy and would require banks to “perform a police function on behalf of the IRS.”

  The Treasury, meanwhile, insists that this additional information will help them track down high-earning tax cheats. The IRS estimates that people pay 99% of taxes due on their earnings when there is third-party reporting, vs just 45% when there’s no verification.

  “The proposal would direct banks to report basic, high-level information on aggregate account inflows and outflows,” reads the Treasury blog post. “Banks would add just a bit of additional data to information that they already supply to taxpayers and the IRS: how much money went into the account over the course of the year, and how much came out.”

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/14/2021 – 20:00

• Larry Summers Slams "Woke" Fed "Losing Control" Of Inflation
  Larry Summers Slams “Woke” Fed “Losing Control” Of Inflation

  You know it’s bad when you’ve lost Larry Summers…

  It appears the so-called ‘progressives’ push to ever more signaling of their virtue and cradle-to-grave dependence on bigger and bigger government (as long as you ‘obey’ the narrative) is just too much for the former Treasury Secretary who warned that monetary policy makers in the U.S. and elsewhere for paying too much attention to social issues and not enough to the biggest risk to inflation since the 1970s.

  

  Speaking to a virtual conference organized by the Institute of International Finance, Summers rebuffed the newly ‘woke’ Fed:

  “We have a generation of central bankers who are defining themselves by their wokeness,” Summers, who is now a professor at Harvard University, said on Wednesday.

  “They’re defining themselves by how socially concerned they are.”

  Read that again and consider the source – Bill Clinton’s Treasury Secretary and head of the National Economic Council in the early years of the Obama administration!!

  His fear is simple: Fed talking heads are too focused on social justice that they are taking their eye off the ball that is their mandated job of managing inflation and jobs.

  “We’re in more danger than we’ve been during my career of losing control of inflation in the U.S.,” the 66-year-old Summers, a paid contributor to Bloomberg, said.

  “We’ve gone even further towards losing it in Britain and I think we’re at some risk in Europe.”

  Summers also – quite ironically for someone who has supported fiscal expansion as a means of promoting macroeconomic stability – blamed the Fed and other central banks for not preparing investors for the tough steps policy makers will probably have to take to rein in inflation.  

  “If those actions come, they’re going to be very shocking and very painful in financial markets,” he said.

  

  This is not the first time Summers has raised a red flag. As James Caton writes at The American Institute for Economic Research, in February, Summers participated in a discussion with Paul Krugman where he outlined his concerns. He notes that:

  1. The stimulus of 2020 was about twice the size of the output gap in the same year. The proposed stimulus for 2021 was, at the time, 4 times the size of the projected output gap.

  2. Unemployment compensation provided to the bottom 30% of earners was more than double their losses from Covid-19.

  Elsewhere, Summers explains that the current labor shortage will drive up wages and that we have already seen monthly rents for new tenants increase by 17 percent, on average, above the rents paid by previous tenants. 

  Summers believes that the “toxic side effects of QE” are not being recognized by policymakers. In an interview, Larry Summers used a rather peculiar metaphor to describe this situation.:

  So, I look at that dwindling hole. Then I look at expenditures that aren’t hard to add into the multiple trillions, and I see substantial risk that the amount of water being poured in vastly exceeds the size of the bathtub.

  When I heard Summers use this metaphor, my mind was drawn to a passage I first read over a decade ago from Benjamin Anderson in his reflection on the Great Depression. In referring to monetary policy that preceded the initiation of the Great Crash in October 1929, he wrote:

  When a bathtub in the upper part of the house has been overflowing for five minutes, it is not difficult to turn off the water and mop up. But when the bathtub has been overflowing for several years, the walls and the spaces between ceilings and floors have become full of water, and a great deal of work is required to get the house dry. Long after the faucet is turned off, water still comes pouring in from the walls and from the ceilings. It was so in 1928 and 1929. 

  Consistent with both statements is the belief that the monetary policy provided more stimulus than was merited by prevailing economic conditions. And consistent with Summers’ belief that excessive monetary support can be toxic, Anderson bemoans the extensive damage that can occur when the water spigot is left on for too long.

  

  Instead of racial ‘equity’ or climate change, The Fed needs to concentrate on monetary policy. This is a serious job that requires serious focus. Perhaps Summers recognizes that the post-2008 monetary framework has created a fiscal Fed. Or maybe he will. 

  Summers’ demands for limits to the aims of monetary policy might be politically feasible under the old Volcker-Greenspan regime. Under that monetary regime, inflationary pressure placed strict limits on the expansion of the balance sheet. The political incentives now faced by both politicians and Fed officials promote precisely the sort of oversized fiscal expansions that we have observed in the last two years, the same expansions that Summers decries. 

  The post-2008 framework has incentivized the destabilization of monetary policy. The sooner we recognize this fact, the sooner we can seriously discuss a solution to the problem.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/14/2021 – 19:40

• Treasury Official Warns Using Stablecoins For Payments "Raises A Whole Set Of Issues"
  Treasury Official Warns Using Stablecoins For Payments “Raises A Whole Set Of Issues”

  As bitcoin prices surge in anticipation of the SEC finally approving a bitcoin ETF (after years of turning down one application after another), one top crypto regulator from Treasury – Treasury Undersecretary for Domestic Finance Nellie Liang – offered a frank explanation for why the Treasury Department sees stablecoins as an important locus for crypto regulation. The issue is that stablecoins solve a critical problem for crypto: they’re rarely volatile, by design. Bloomberg reported earlier this month that tether, one of the biggest stablecoins, appears to be a massive Ponzi scheme. Although it saw some volatility in response, on Thursday, tether was trading right around $1.

  

  Why is it that tether didn’t collapse after being accused of being a Ponzi scheme (not like this is even the first time)? Because stable coins like tether have become a central part of the crypto-trading economy, allowing traders to move easily into and out of positions in different coins without ever needing to re-convert their crypto to US dollars. As Liang put it, stablecoins play a “foundational” role in the crypto economy. While they’re mostly used for trading right now, the Treasury is keeping a close eye on whether stablecoins start being used for commerce, something that might trigger a backlash from the Treasury since it would be a sign that a real competitor to the US dollar might actually be emerging.

  As Liang added, stablecoins being used for payments (like Mark Zuckerberg infamously tried to do) “raises a whole set of issues”.

  “We believe they’re kind of foundational to crypto and future crypto services,” Liang said Thursday during a virtual event sponsored by the Institute of International Finance. “They’re being used mostly for crypto trading currently. They also have the potential and have started to be used for payments — and may be widely used for payments, and that raises a whole set of issues that the President.”

  “They’re being used mostly for crypto trading currently. They also have the potential and have started to be used for payments — and may be widely used for payments, and that raises a whole set of issues that the President’s Working Group wanted to focus on,” she said.

  At this point, more regulation for the crypto community seems virtually inevitable with Janet Yellen running Treasury and Gary Gensler running the SEC. President Biden and his advisors have even considered imposing an entire new regulatory framework for crypto via executive fiatn (no pun intended).

  Liang  is a member of the President’s Working Group on crypto regulation. For those who aren’t familiar with it, the working group includes the heads of Treasury and several other federal agencies. The group is planning to issue a report on stablecoins by the end of the month. In addition to the policy-setting team, the DoJ has put together a task force to combat cryptocurrency-related crime as well.

  Media reports have suggested that the Biden Administration plans to regulate stablecoins like banks. He’s also reportedly considered hiring a “crypto czar”

  But whatever happens, keep in mind: whatever lip-service federal policymakers give about stablecoins (including the FedCoin which is being studied by the central bank) being a key part of innovation, in reality, they see it as one thing: a threat.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/14/2021 – 19:20

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• Finland Will Lobby The EU To Give Nuclear Power "Sustainable" Status
  Finland Will Lobby The EU To Give Nuclear Power “Sustainable” Status

  It looks as though Finland is starting to come back around to the idea of nuclear power – and that they plan on taking their advocacy for the clean energy to the European Union. The country will now lobby the EU for a “sustainable” label on nuclear power. 

  The EU’s decision on whether or not nuclear is “sustainable” has yet to be made. Despite the fact that plants are emission free, “nuclear is currently considered only a low-carbon energy source due to emissions caused by mining and transport,” Euractive wrote this week.

  Finland’s fifth nuclear plant is nearing completing after years of delays, the report notes. Nuclear remains an important energy source for the country, which has a target of being carbon neutral by 2035. Nuclear currently accounts for 30% of the country’s power. 

  Finland’s government lobbying nuclear as a clean source of energy “marks a near U-Turn” in the green party, Euractive writes. The party has been traditionally “fiercely anti-nuclear” and has resigned from previous governments over the issue, the report says. 

  Now, it’s views have become “more pragmatic”. 

  

  Recall, yesterday, we published on uranium, which we have been recommending since December 2020. 

  We pointed out that the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust has emerged as a powerful buyer of physical uranium, which in a market as illiquid as uranium, would serve as a powerful catalyst to move prices of both the underlying commodity and various producers sharply higher.

  We also noted how hedge funds were starting to pour into uranium. 

  The difference this time from other uranium pops, we wrote, is that finally the institutions are waking up to what could be a historic surge, especially if the fake ESG lobby starts dumping the bloated FAAMG names and seeks refuge in such “soon to be green” sectors as uranium. Incidentally, the entire Uranium sector is a tiny fraction of Apple’s market cap.

  And while Finland is just a tiny brick in the wall in terms of additional adoption, they represent the obvious direction for energy lobby to eventually focus their efforts on. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/14/2021 – 02:45

• French Finance Minister Issues Declaration Of Independence… From the US
  French Finance Minister Issues Declaration Of Independence… From the US

  Authored by John V. Walsh via AntiWar.com, 

  “Clear Differences Remain Between France and the U.S, French Minister Says,” is the headline to a remarkable piece appearing in the New York Times this week. The Minister, Bruno Le Maire, is brutally frank on the nature of the differences as the quotations below Illustrate. In fact, they amount to a Declaration of Independence of France and EU from the US.

  It is not surprising that the differences relate to China after the brouhaha over the sale of US nuclear submarines to Australia and the surprising (to the French) cancellation of contracts with France for submarines. Mr. LeMaire, sounding very much like a reproving parent, characterized this as “misbehavior from the US administration.”

  

  Mr. LeMaire made it crystal clear that the disagreement over submarines is symptomatic of deeper differences in world view that have emerged not only in France but in the EU as a consequence of China’s rise. The NYT article states:

  “‘The United States wants to confront China. The European Union wants to engage China,’ Mr. Le Maire, a close ally of President Emmanuel Macron of France, said in a wide-ranging interview ahead of the (IMF) meetings. This was natural, he added, because the United States is the world’s leading power and does not ‘want China to become in a few years or in a few decades the first superpower in the world.

  “Europe’s strategic priority, by contrast, is independence, ‘which means to be able to build more capacities on defense, to defend its own view on the fight against climate change, to defend its own economic interest, to have access to key technologies and not be too dependent on American technologies,’ he said.”

  The article continued, quoting the Finance Minister:

  “The key question now for the European Union, he said, is to become ‘independent from the United States, able to defend its own interests, whether economic or strategic interests.’”

  LeMaire might have pre-ambled that statement with: “When in the course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bonds which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature’s God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.”

  The fallout between France & AUKUS states has created awkwardness in the #IndoPacific. Australia will need to bridge the trust deficit that joining the #AUKUS has created with its European allies. @PremeshaSaha & @rahulkamath23 write. https://t.co/U9AHB0i2X4

  — ORF (@orfonline) October 13, 2021

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  Still, seasoned diplomat that Mr. LeMaire is, he provided some cold comfort to the naughty US administration, saying, the United States remains “our closest partner” in terms of values, economic model, respect for the rule of law, and embrace of freedom. But with China, he said, “we do not share the same values or economic model.”

  The article continued:

  “Asked if differences over China meant inevitable divergence between the United States and Europe, Mr. Le Maire said, ‘It could be if we are not cautious.’ But every effort should be made to avoid this, which means ‘recognizing Europe as one of the three superpowers in the world for the 21st century,’ alongside the United States and China.”

  The piece concluded;

  “One of the biggest lingering points of contention is over metal tariffs that former President Donald J. Trump imposed globally in 2018. Officials face difficult negotiations in coming weeks. Europeans plan to impose retaliatory tariffs on a range of US products as of Dec. 1, unless Mr. Biden pulls back a 25 percent duty on European steel and a 10 percent tax on aluminum.

  “‘If we want to improve the bilateral economic relationship between the continents, the first step must be for the United States to lift the sanctions in the steel and aluminum case,’ Mr. Le Maire said. ‘We are fed up with the trade wars,’ he added.”

  Shared values are nice, but shared profits are clearly better.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/14/2021 – 02:00

• The Great New Normal Purge
  The Great New Normal Purge

  Authored by CJ Hopkins via The Consent Factory,

  So, the Great New Normal Purge has begun … right on cue, right by the numbers.

  As we “paranoid conspiracy theorists” have been warning would happen for the past 18 months, people who refuse to convert to the new official ideology are now being segregated, stripped of their jobs, banned from attending schools, denied medical treatment, and otherwise persecuted.

  Relentless official propaganda demonizing “the Unvaccinated” is being pumped out by the corporate and state media, government leaders, health officials, and shrieking fanatics on social media. “The Unvaccinated” are the new official “Untermenschen,” an underclass of subhuman “others” the New Normal masses are being conditioned to hate.

  You can see the hatred in the New Normals’ eyes …

  

  But it isn’t just a purge of “the Unvaccinated.” Anyone deviating from the official ideology is being systematically demonized and persecuted. In Germany, Australia, and other New Normal countries, protesting the New Normal is officially outlawed. The New Normal Gestapo is going around to people’s homes to interrogate them about their anti-New Normal Facebook posts. Corporations are openly censoring content that contradicts the official narrative. New Normal goon squads roam the streets, checking people’s “vaccination” papers.

  And it’s not just governments and corporations carrying out the New Normal Purge. Friends are purging friends. Wives are purging husbands. Fathers are purging children. Children are purging parents. New Normals are purging old normal thoughts. Global “health authorities” are revising definitions to make them conform to New Normal “science.”

  And so on … a new official “reality” is being manufactured, right before our eyes. Anything and anyone that doesn’t conform to it is being purged, unpersoned, memory-holed, erased.

  None of which should come as a surprise.

  Every nascent totalitarian system, at some stage of its takeover of society, launches a purge of political opponents, ideological dissidents, and other “anti-social deviants.” Such purges can be brief or open-ended, and they can take any number of outward forms, depending on the type of totalitarian system, but you cannot have totalitarianism without them.

  The essence of totalitarianism — regardless of which costumes and ideology it wears — is a desire to completely control society, every aspect of society, every individual behavior and thought. Every totalitarian system, whether an entire nation, a tiny cult, or any other form of social body, evolves toward this unachievable goal … the total ideological transformation and control of every single element of society (or whatever type of social body it comprises). This fanatical pursuit of total control, absolute ideological uniformity, and the elimination of all dissent, is what makes totalitarianism totalitarianism.

  Thus, each new totalitarian system, at some point in its evolution, needs to launch a purge of those who refuse to conform to its official ideology. It needs to do this for two basic reasons: (1) to segregate or otherwise eliminate actual political opponents and dissidents who pose a threat to the new regime; and (2) and more importantly, to establish the ideological territory within which the masses must now confine themselves in order to avoid being segregated, or eliminated.

  The purge must be conducted openly, brutally, so that the masses understand that the rules of society have changed, forever, that their former rights and freedoms are gone, and that from now on any type of resistance or deviation from official ideology will not be tolerated, and will be ruthlessly punished.

  The purge is usually launched during a “state of emergency,” under imminent threat from some official “enemy” (e.g., “communist infiltrators,” “counter-revolutionaries,” or … you know, a “devastating pandemic”), such that the normal rules of society can be indefinitely suspended “for the sake of survival.” The more terrified the masses can be made, the more willing they will be to surrender their freedom and follow orders, no matter how insane.

  The lifeblood of totalitarianism is fear … fear of both the system’s official enemy (which is constantly stoked with propaganda) and of the totalitarian system itself. That the brutality of the system is rationalized by the threat posed by the official enemy doesn’t make it any less brutal or terrifying. Under totalitarian systems (of any type or scale) fear is a constant and there is no escape from it.

  The masses’ fear is then channeled into hatred … hatred of the official “Untermenschen,” whom the system encourages the masses to scapegoat. Thus, the purge is also a means of allowing the masses to purge themselves of their fear, to transform it into self-righteous hatred and unleash it on the “Untermenschen” instead of the totalitarian system, which, obviously, would be suicidal.

  Every totalitarian system — both the individuals running it and the system, structurally — instinctively understands how all this works. New Normal totalitarianism is no exception.

  Just reflect on what has happened over the last 18 months.

  Day after day, month after month, the masses have been subjected to the most destructive psychological-terror campaign in the history of psychological terror. Sadly, many of them have been reduced to paranoid, anus-puckering invalids, afraid of the outdoors, of human contact, afraid of their own children, afraid of the air, morbidly obsessed with disease and death … and consumed with hatred of “the Unvaccinated.”

  Their hatred, of course, is utterly irrational, the product of fear and propaganda, as hatred of “the Untermenschen” always is. It has absolutely nothing to do with a virus, which even the New Normal authorities admit. “The Unvaccinated” are no more of a threat to anyone than any other human being … except insofar as they threaten the New Normals’ belief in their delusional ideology.

  No, we are way past rationality at this point. We are witnessing the birth of a new form of totalitarianism. Not “communism.” Not “fascism.” Global-capitalist totalitarianism. Pseudo-medical totalitarianism. Pathologized totalitarianism. A form of totalitarianism without a dictator, without a definable ideology. A totalitarianism based on “science,” on “fact,” on “reality,” which it creates itself.

  I don’t know about you, but, so far, it has certainly made quite an impression on me. So much so that I have mostly set aside my satirical schtick to try to understand it … what it actually is, why it is happening, why it is happening now, where it is going, and how to oppose it, or at least disrupt it.

  The way I see it, the next six months will determine how successful the initial stages of the roll-out of this new totalitarianism will be. By April of 2022, either we’ll all be showing our “papers” to the New Normal Gestapo to be able to earn a living, attend a school, dine at a restaurant, travel, and otherwise live our lives, or we will have thrown a monkey wrench into the machinery. I do not expect GloboCap to abandon the roll-out of the New Normal over the longer term — they are clearly committed to implementing it — but we have the power to ruin their opening act (which they’ve been planning and rehearsing for quite some time).

  So, let’s go ahead and do that, shall we? Before we get purged, or unpersoned, or whatever. I’m not sure, as I haven’t seen a “fact-check” yet, but I believe there are some commercial airline pilots in the USA who are showing us the way.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/14/2021 – 00:05

• Victoria "F*ck The EU" Nuland Is In Moscow Negotiating The Status Of Ukraine's Donbass
  Victoria “F*ck The EU” Nuland Is In Moscow Negotiating The Status Of Ukraine’s Donbass

  Look who’s back in Eastern Europe – this time forced to deal directly with the Kremlin after a half-decade of military and political stalemate in war-torn eastern Ukraine. Victoria “F*ck The EU” Nuland is currently in Moscow for high-level talks with top Russian officials. Among multiple tense issues, there’s reportedly been progress on the situation in eastern Ukraine, related to working out a potential lasting political settlement leading to the cessation of violence there.

  As Biden’s Under Secretary for Political Affairs, Nuland kicked off three days of talks Tuesday and into Wednesday with Yury Ushakov, the top foreign policy aide to Putin. Interestingly the Kremlin agreed to a temporary lifting of travel sanctions against her just to enter the country for the meeting. 

  

  After initial meetings, Nuland hailed “the frank, productive review” of US-Russia relations, noting that the two sides are “committed to a stable, predictable relationship,” according to a US Embassy statement. On Tuesday after her arrival she had met with Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov, reportedly for more than an hour-and-a-half. 

  The US side has indicated “no breakthroughs” in US-Russia relations as of yet, which comes after a year of sanctions and counter-sanctions targeting diplomats and mutual restrictions on media entities. It’s among the highest level meetings since Putin and Biden’s June summit in Geneva where the two leaders pledged better, frank and open communication – given Nuland is the number three highest official at the State Department.

  While the American delegation hasn’t commented to this level of specifics, Russian media is citing Kremlin deputy chief of staff Dmitry Kozak as saying after Wednesday meetings that “A thorough and constructive dialogue took place regarding the settlement of the conflict in south-east Ukraine.”

  Kozak told the top daily newspaper Kommersant that there’s general agreement over mutual recognition of special autonomy for Donbass – where the Russia-backed, self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic and Lugansk People’s Republic have been in a military stalemate with Ukrainian national forces for the past six years:

  “It was confirmed that the Minsk agreements remain the only basis for a settlement,” he continued. “During the talks, the US confirmed its position… that significant progress towards the settlement of the conflict is unlikely without any agreement on future parameters of Donbass autonomy.

  In other words, giving the region a special status within Ukraine.”

  The reference is to the 2014 peace plan for eastern Ukraine signed by Russia, Ukraine, and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), with the mediation also of France and Germany. It’s still considered the only agreed upon basis for any future negotiations and settlement to the still “on hold” conflict. 

  👇first comment from the US Embassy Moscow on how Victoria Nuland’s meetings in Russia are going so far. https://t.co/13xqLFTIYB

  — Mike Eckel (@Mike_Eckel) October 13, 2021

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  Commenting on the irony of Nuland – one of the very officials responsible for destabilizing Ukraine in the first place with an obvious agenda to strike at Russia’s influence – now eagerly joining Russian officials at the table in Moscow to talk “peace”, geopolitical analysis site SouthFront recalls:

  As a senior state department official, Nuland took an active part in what transpired in Ukraine back in 2014, namely the Euromaidan. She visited Kiev on several occasions during the height of the protests.

  From 2019 onwards she’s been entirely banned from entering Russia. Her visit on October 11^th was completely at the initiative of the American side.

  Nuland who was a part of the “very successful” destabilization efforts in Kiev is now being sent to Moscow in order to foster “stable and predictable” relations.

  But also looming perhaps larger in the background is Russia and China’s growing closeness on a multitude of fronts:

  The developments in Ukraine, as well as in Afghanistan or in the Middle East, are only a pretext for the meeting. The recent US-China tensions and the energy crisis are a much more significant focal point.

  The United States is attempting to take advantage of the energy crisis, as China is one of its main victims. Washington is doing its best to inflict competitive damage to Beijing and to strengthen its own position. Improving on its competitive advantages over the EU comes as an added bonus.

  China, for its part, is drawing closer to Russia, as it has no other choice. As a result of Nord Stream 2, and the United States proving to France, and earlier to Afghanistan, that it is a disloyal “ally”, the EU is likely to grow “fonder” of Russia. This is a worrisome development for Washington in both of these cases.

  Indeed just last Friday Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian issued rare statements on the Nord Stream 2 controversy, stepping firmly into Moscow’s corner.

  Russia and US to continue talks if status of Donbass agreed, Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Executive Office Dmitry Kozak said:https://t.co/ao9fAyOYcu pic.twitter.com/T7r4BTx9i8

  — TASS (@tassagency_en) October 13, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “It is well-known that the Nord Stream 2 project shows energy complementarity between Russia and Europe, and would help resolve the European energy crisis,” Zhao said during those last Friday remarks defending Russia.

  “The U.S., however, to serve its own geopolitical interests and monopolize the European energy market, spares no effort in disrupting and hobbling relevant projects to undermine the interests of Russia and Europe and their cooperation. This wins no support,” the official said. 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/13/2021 – 23:45

• Beijing Is Trapped: China Producer Prices Surge At Fastest Pace In 26 Years
  Beijing Is Trapped: China Producer Prices Surge At Fastest Pace In 26 Years

  China’s factory-gate prices grew at the fastest pace in almost 26 years in September, adding to global inflation risks and putting pressure on local businesses to start passing on higher costs to consumers.  

  The producer price index climbed 10.7% from a year earlier, the highest since November 1995, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed Thursday, far higher than the 9.5% gain in August and hotter than the 10.5% expected.

  

  On the other hand, consumer prices rose 0.7% last month from a year earlier, lower than a 0.8% gain in the previous month., but Bloomberg notes that for now consumer inflation remains in check because of falling pork prices, even though the removal of most virus controls by the end of September may have helped to boost household spending.

  “The widened gap between PPI and CPI means greater pressure for upstream sectors to pass on rising costs to the downstream,” said Bruce Pang, head of macro and strategy research at China Renaissance Securities Hong Kong.

  And, as we previously warned, the situation is about to get much, much more serious. If the historical correlation between Coal prices and PPI holds, were may be soon looking at a tripling of China’s PPI, which from 10.7% Y/Y in September, is about to soar to 30% or more.

  

  Needless to say, if Chinese PPI does hit 30%+, even if CPI somehow stay in the single digits, the results would be catastrophic: profit margins would collapse, the plunge in already thin cash flows would lead to even more defaults and supply chain bottlenecks, even as the scramble to obtain commodities “at any price” keeps pushing costs – and PPI – even higher.

  Meanwhile, if producers do try to pass on some of the costs and CPI spikes (the gap between CPI and PPI was already at record wide before the recent surge in coal prices) as it did in the early 90s…

  

  … then Beijing will have social unrest on its hands.

  There are early signs that producers are starting to pass on higher costs to consumers: the largest soy sauce maker in the country said this week it plans to raise retail prices of its products. At least 13 companies listed on China’s A-share market have announced price hikes this year to address rising costs and tight supply, China Securities Journal reported Thursday.

  And all this is happening as China’s property sector desperately needs a massive liquidity infusion which is – you guessed it – inflationary.

  And while China may be facing its first “galloping inflation” PPI print since the early 90s, it’s only downhill from there, because as Citigroup wrote over the weekend, power cuts (with over 20 provinces, making up >2/3 of China’s GDP, have rolled out electricity-rationing measures since August) and contractionary PMI “seem to suggest China could enter into at least a short period of stagflation.”

  “We think the risk of stagflation is rising in China as well as the rest of the world,” said Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management Ltd.

  “Persistent inflationary pressure limits the potential scope of monetary policy easing.”

  And so, Beijing is now trapped: if it eases, inflation – already at nosebleed levels – will soar further crushing margins and sparking a deep stagflationary recession; if it does not ease, the property market – already imploding – will crater.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/13/2021 – 23:25

• Putin Blasts Accusations Russia Is Weaponizing Natural Gas As "Politically Motivated Blather" 
  Putin Blasts Accusations Russia Is Weaponizing Natural Gas As “Politically Motivated Blather” 

  In Wednesday remarks aimed at Western press, President Vladimir Putin shot down accusations that Russia weaponizing its supplies of natural gas in order to pressure German regulators to quickly approve switching on the taps for the recently completed Nord Stream 2 pipeline. 

  He dismissed recent reports accusing the Kremlin of withholding gas supplies to Europe as “politically motivated blather with nothing to support it”. The statements were given to CNBC in Moscow as part of the annual Russian Energy Week major industry event, with Putin bluntly saying in response, “We are not using any weapons.” 

  The Russian leader added that “Even during the hardest parts of the Cold War Russia regularly has fulfilled its contractual obligations and supplies gas to Europe,” according to the US news network’s translation. 

  

  Last week as Nord Stream 2 critics led by US officials alleged that the Russia-to-Germany pipeline will essentially hold Europe’s energy needs hostage to Russian geopolitical whims, Putin instead pointed to Europe’s ongoing energy market “hysteria” and crisis as being fundamentally a result of the ‘green transition’ coupled with corresponding low investment in the extraction industries.

  In the Wednesday remarks he re-emphasized that there’s “nothing to support it [the idea] that we use energy as a kind of weapon,” but instead the reality is that Russia is busy “expanding its supplies to Europe.” In support of this statement he alluded to state-run Gazprom actually increasing its natural gas flow to Europe by 15% over the first nine months of this year. He added that Russia stands ready to increase its supply if that’s what Europe needs and asks for.

  “Higher gas prices in Europe are a consequence of a deficit of energy and not vice versa and that’s why we should not deal in blame shifting, this is what our partners are trying to do,” Putin said during the panel conversation. He again invoked Europe’s green agenda as playing a big part in its energy costs soaring just ahead of winter:

  “You see the problem does not consist in us, it consists in the European side, because, first, we know that the wind farms did not work during summer because of the weather, everyone knows that. Moreover, the Europeans did not pump enough gas into their underground gas facilities… and the supplies to Europe have decreased from other regions of the world.”

  On oil, elsewhere in the conversation he noted that OPEC+ “is doing everything to ensure that the oil market is completely stabilized. We do not allow sharp price spikes and it is not in our interests.”

  “The market has stabilized, but we have not yet reached the pre- crisis production level of 11 million barrels a day. And our position is to increase production in accordance with the growing needs of the market,” the Russian president said.

  And then there was this exchange during the panel conversation:

  When asked whether oil could reach $100 a barrel, Putin said it’s “quite possible”…

  “We do not seek to restrain production in such a way that prices skyrocket, as it happens in the gas market. We favor smooth and balanced movement.”

  Gazprom too has been on the defensive in the face of the widespread natural gas restriction accusations coming out of Europe, particularly after last week gas supplies through Belarus to the EU were cut by 70%, according to the company’s data. And supplies via Poland too were slashed: “The new figures come after supplies via the Yamal pipeline, which runs from Russia via Belarus to Poland, fell by half last week,” EU Observer wrote.

  

  “Analysts, such as US investment bank Goldman Sachs, have said the Yamal cuts could lead to higher gas prices in winter,” the report added. 

  But Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov recently fired back that Gazprom has fulfilled its current obligations to the maximum extent possible under existing contracts: “Nothing can be delivered beyond the contracts. How? For free? It is a matter of negotiating with Gazprom,” he said.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/13/2021 – 23:05

• Brandon Smith: If You Don't Respect My Freedoms, I Don't Respect Your Pronouns
  Brandon Smith: If You Don’t Respect My Freedoms, I Don’t Respect Your Pronouns

  Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

  No group in this world is above ridicule, and that includes the mentally ill. Just because the mentally ill become an organized mob does not mean they are a victim status group deserving of special protection or special treatment. The mentally ill are the LAST people on the planet that should be given the power to dictate the course of society. Madness is, in a way, infectious. Narcissism is poisonous. Psychopathy is radioactive. The majority of humans naturally discriminate against such people because every facet of our biology, every cell of our being warns us that if they are given an ounce of control, destruction will surely follow.

  Human tribes and societies have understood this reality for thousands of years. Our repellent reactions to madness are ingrained in our cellular memory. Just as we instinctually recoil from snakes and spiders we have also learned over millennia to recoil from unhinged minds. But for some reason in the past 5-10 years we are being told to embrace the exact reverse. The insane are now above the rest of us. The insane must be worshiped. The insane are our leaders and role models. Biology is wrong, and the cultural Marxists and woke ideologues are right.

  The new narrative is that truth tellers and rational people are the “insane” ones and they should be watched or possibly locked up.

  I’ve been writing about political correctness and woke culture for a long time now, and I have to say that the developing trends of social justice are not surprising. However, the speed at which they are being forced on the rest of us today is disturbing. One has to wonder if the woke mob is in a rush to meet some kind of propaganda deadline the rest of us are not aware of.

  

  The gender and “Trans” issues are really at the forefront of leftist ideology these days. If you have observed these people for any length of time you know all about the Oppression Olympics and the intersectional totem pole. And, you are also probably aware that people who claim to be trans earn an automatic spot at the top of that totem pole, well above women, black people, and even your run-of-the-mill gay people. The trans costume is the most powerful of all SJW costumes and imbues a person with unlimited protection no matter how terrible that person might be. It even allows them to dictate the very thoughts and speech of the public at large.

  For example, there is a policy among western governments to allow male convicted criminals who claim to be trans women to be interned in women’s prisons. This allows them to rape female inmates at their leisure while claiming special status. Yet, according to the leftist media it is the men posing as women that are being “victimized” by guards and female inmates. In Britain, they are even passing a law which makes it a crime for prisoners to use the wrong pronouns when referring to a trans inmate.

  It is important to note that the trans identity is a sort of magic ticket for white people in particular. The SJW cult is especially concerned with all white people (mainly white men) as some kind of monstrous threat to the safety and emotional stability of everyone else. If you are a white person within the SJW religion you are immediately hated for your original sin and are relegated to the leftist gutter. They despise your skin color, and no amount of help you give as an “ally” is going to earn you a place among the oh-so-holy oppressed.

  Unless, that is, you say you are trans. Then, as if you have touched the pure hand of the SJW deity, you are suddenly absolved of all your inherent white evil and are given a mantle of divinity. You are better than everyone else, because you are supposedly the most oppressed of them all.

  Maybe this sounds like a bit of exaggeration. Surely I am engaging in hyperbole. I promise you I am not. Western culture is being increasingly segregated by the political left into various tiers of people based on their skin color as well as their sexual orientations and mental instabilities, and the more made-up the orientations and the more volatile the mental instability the more privileges a person is afforded. The patients are truly taking over the asylum.

  I am revisiting this subject because I have noticed a renewed uptick in aggression from leftists on the trans issue, and I suspect this is because they are starting to get more push-back from the public. The latest Dave Chappelle special on Netflix triggered the sensitive snowflakes again simply because Chappelle argues what most of us already know –That gender is a biological fact, not a social construct.

  This has led to numerous angry demands on Twitter to have Chappelle kicked off Netflix and canceled in general. For now it seems as though these demands are being ignored, which is exactly what should be happening everywhere all the time.

  Others, like author JK Rowling, have not been as lucky. And I suspect if Dave Chappelle was white it would be a different story.

  Sometimes people in the middle of the totem pole can get away with criticizing another group in the progressive stack, but if you’re a straight white person there are no allowances.

  Why are people that represent a tiny percentage of the population (around 0.3% or less) being given massive special attention and enjoying unprecedented legal regulations in their favor? Why are states like California going out of their way to force the public to accommodate the tiny trans minority, to the point of passing laws which make it an offense to have separate toy aisles for boys and girls, or trying to make it illegal to ignore a person’s preferred pronouns?

  Again, it seems that leftists (mostly middle-class and rich white progressives) are creating a kind of ultimate victim pass – A way to climb to the top of the totem pole from the very bottom. All they have to do is loudly denounce biological gender and say they are “trans”, and like magic they become part of a new civil rights movement in which they are the righteous “freedom fighters” in a fake revolution for a fake cause.

  Anyone that asserts conflicting viewpoints on the trans issue is usually met with accusations of bigotry and “transphobia.” After all, why should we care about the trans movement getting whatever it wants? Is it because we are prejudiced?

  This is a gaslighting tactic among leftists to deter any criticism of their activities. For most people who argue against corporate marketing and government laws in favor of gender neutrality, our interest is in fighting against the propaganda and disinformation, not fighting against trans people in general.

  There are some real transexual men and women out there that suffer from a disorder called “Gender Dysphoria.” It is an extremely rare condition; a mental illness that is mostly harmless to the rest of society but does cause a high rate of depression and suicide among those that have it. I don’t have any problem with these folks or their existence. What I do have a problem with is social justice Marxists exploiting gender dysphoria as a weapon in their ideological war to tear down western society and replace it with their own dystopian vision.

  The issue here is not about actual trans people, but about respect for freedom of speech and thought. You see, every single facet of the leftist movement is about collectivism and control. They say they care about minorities and their well-being, but they are really just using them to further their own twisted political conquests. Whether we are talking about critical race theory or the transgender movement the end goal is always the same: The leftists want to put themselves in the position of arbiter over what speech is acceptable and what speech is not acceptable.

  Once they are allowed to dictate what is and what is not “hate speech”, they then control ALL speech. Control is obviously the agenda rather than the defense of minorities; all you have to do is examine how they treat minorities that step out of line. Look at how they attack blacks like Dave Chappelle, classic feminists like JK Rowling, gay people like Dave Rubin or even trans conservatives like Blaire White. They are part of the precious totem pole, but as soon as any of these people leave the leftist plantation or speak contrary to the main agenda they are declared heretics and viciously excommunicated.

  The purpose of the trans movement and the purpose of social justice overall is two-fold:

  • The first purpose is to break down the foundations of western society and create chaos so that leftists can replace the existing culture with their own communist framework.

  • The second purpose is to use supposed “victim groups” as a shield from any criticism of their agenda by controlling the language and labeling the people that oppose them as “intolerant.”

  The battle over pronouns is indicative of this agenda because it requires the forced participation of everyone in the delusions of a minority of people with mental instability. It requires that I give respect to someone who hasn’t earned it and is not entitled to it, and call them whatever label they dictate I call them for however long they wish. And if I don’t, I am evil and should be punished by the state or by the mob.

  Imagine if schizophrenics decided to join together into a movement to demand that the rest of society call them by whatever delusional persona they happen to fantasize about that day. A guy suddenly decides that on Monday he is Napoleon Bonaparte or Jesus Christ and I’m supposed to accommodate him or be called a bigot? There is really no difference between this and what the LGBTQ-whatever movement is demanding when it comes to their made-up pronouns.

  I really don’t care if a person wants to declare themselves transgendered. That action by itself doesn’t really affect me and I hope it makes them happy. I think they should seek psychological help because if they really have gender dysphoria then they are statistically far more likely to commit suicide (and it’s not because society makes them commit suicide, there is no evidence to support that claim). Beyond that, as long as they don’t turn their sexual preferences into a political mob then there’s really no conflict. If I really like the person and they are respectful of my personal freedoms, I might even use their pronouns, who knows. Frankly, I don’t think any reasonable person would care about pronouns outside of their own biology.

  The war arises when leftists and the trans people they exploit try to impose their ideology and their views on the rest of us. The fight is over freedom, not over trans people. If you want to control how I talk, how I think and how I live; If you don’t respect my freedoms then I don’t respect you. You are not owed or entitled to respect just because you were born or because you think you are special. You get respect by earning respect. You get respect for your actions, not your identity.

  The world is not here to accommodate you or your pronouns. People are not here to adjust their speech to protect your feelings. Your feelings do not matter. Your pronouns do not matter. You will be measured by your accomplishments and by how much or how little you violate the rights of others. And if your goal is to manipulate or control how the rest of us speak or interact according to our natural biological preferences then perhaps you should start your own society somewhere else? Maybe somewhere far, far away…

  *  *  *

  If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch.  Learn more about it HERE.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/13/2021 – 22:45

• "Into The Trash It Goes": Snowden Slams CIA-Funded 'Encrypted' App Wicker
  “Into The Trash It Goes”: Snowden Slams CIA-Funded ‘Encrypted’ App Wicker

  In 1999, the CIA created In-Q-Tel, a nonprofit investment firm that invests in high-tech startup companies focused on increasing the capacity of US intelligence agencies. The fund has been notable for funding Google and Palantir at very early stages, bringing us to the latest possible investment into encrypted messaging platform Wickr. 

  

  Vice’s Motherboard was first notified by Jack Poulson, executive director of Tech Inquiry, about In-Q-Tel’s From 990 filed in the fiscal year ending in March 2020. The form details compensation paid to outside contractors and mentions a $1.6 payment to Wickr but doesn’t explain if it was an investment or a purchase order. 

  But deeper within the form, a section reads: “The hallmark of IQT’s strategic an agile model is the development effort—aka work program—where the company collaborates with the startup to tailor a company’s technology to specific government requirements and invests funds towards that work program.”

  Motherboard spoke with Carrie Sessine, senior vice president of marketing and communications at In-Q-Tel, and asked more about the funds sent to Wickr. 

  “In-Q-Tel is a prolific strategic investor, making more than 50 investments each year. Our website features the majority of our portfolio investments. There will always be companies that are not announced publicly, which is common practice in the investment community. In-Q-Tel serves multiple agencies committed to national security including the CIA, FBI, NSA, NGA, NRO, DHS (specifically Customs and Border Protection), DIA, and Air Force,” Sessine said. 

  However, Wickr’s funding profile is nowhere to be found on In-Q-Tel’s public portfolio section on its website.

  In June, Amazon Web Services announced it acquired Wickr. Amazon has been known to have cloud contracts with the CIA. 

  More questions than answers remain about In-Q-Tel’s $1.6 million injection into the end-to-end encrypted messaging app. 

  Interesting to note that the CIA had invested $1.6million into Wickr, the encrypted messaging software that organized crime groups used white labelled in Anom phone devices, later discovered to be a sting operation run with US Law Enforcement agencies.

  — Hacker Fantastic (@hackerfantastic) October 12, 2021

  Edward Snowden responds to Wickr’s CIA funding by tweeting: “Into the trash it goes.”

  No, I don’t use Wickr. The point is that in 2021, you can’t credibly purport to provide a secure app when you

  a) take money from the CIA and

  b) literally give the CIA a seat on your board of directors.

  ayfkm?

  — Edward Snowden (@Snowden) October 13, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jshttps://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/13/2021 – 22:25

• Paradigm Shift? Aussie Cop Quits, Refuses To Enforce COVID Tyranny, Says "Majority" Of Cops Feel The Same
  Paradigm Shift? Aussie Cop Quits, Refuses To Enforce COVID Tyranny, Says “Majority” Of Cops Feel The Same

  Authored by Matt Agorist via The Free Thought Project,

  A female officer with Victoria Police, who served for 16 years, has resigned in protest against the use of police to enforce Covid-19 rules, saying in an interview that a “great majority” of her colleagues shared her sentiments.

  

  Acting Senior Sergeant Krystle Mitchell has appeared on The Discernible Interviews channel on YouTube on Friday, wearing her dark-blue uniform and revealing that she had been “troubled” by how police resources have been applied during the pandemic by state authorities.

  Victoria Police has been tasked with making sure that people in one of Australia’s most populous states abide by the lockdown restrictions, and with curbing illegal protests against the health rules and vaccination mandates, which often turn violent, resulting in numerous arrests and accusations of police brutality. Melbourne, Victoria’s capital city, holds the world record for longest lockdown.

  Mitchell, who had been working with the gender equality and inclusion command, said that “all of my friends that are police officers that are working the front line and are suffering every day enforcing CHO (Chief Health Officer) directions, that certainly the great majority don’t believe in and don’t want to enforce.”

  The law enforcers were “scaring people in the community,” and she herself felt uneasy when encountering officers in the street while off-duty and wearing civilian clothes, she confessed.

  Some rough behavior by the police during the pandemic might be partially explained by the enforcement approach taken by Victoria Premier Daniel Andrews, Mitchell suggested. 

  “I think that the reason, or the issue, in why perhaps police [are] feeling more emboldened to act the way they are in relation to these harsher actions is because of the messaging that comes from Dan [Andrews],” who tells the law enforcers what to do “on a daily basis,” she said.

  “The consequences of me being here today, is that I will be resigning from Victoria Police, effective the end of this interview because the consequences of me coming out publicly would be dismissal,” Mitchell announced.

  I can’t remedy in my soul any more the way in which my organization, that I love to work for, is being used and the damage that it’s causing in the reputation of Victoria Police and .. to the community.

  Victoria Police confirmed that Mitchell used to be one of their officers, but stressed that her comments in no way reflected the views of the whole force.

  “Victoria Police cannot pick and choose what laws it enforces,” it said in a statement on Saturday, adding that the police “looks forward to the easing of restrictions and the eventual return to pre-COVID life,” just like ordinary residents do.

  As for Mitchell, she would be the subject of a professional standards command investigation over her revelations, according to the statement.

  

  Several instances of police brutality in the state of Victoria went viral in September at the height of the protests against Covid-19 restrictions in Melbourne. One of the viral clips that caused outrage featured police violently tossing an elderly woman to the ground and pepper-spraying her. In another incident, an officer was filmed slamming a demonstrator onto the pavement, allegedly rendering him unconscious.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/13/2021 – 22:05

• Feds Deploy Non-Toxic Gas On Subway In Test Of Biological Attack Preparedness
  Feds Deploy Non-Toxic Gas On Subway In Test Of Biological Attack Preparedness

  If you smell something strange during your next subway ride, don’t panic, it’s not a terror attack – it’s just the Feds testing out a new strategy for averting chemical and biological attacks on the country’s largest public transportation system.

  

  According to NBC 4 New York, the MTA, working in partnership with the Department of Homeland Security and a team of researchers and city agencies, will deploy a non-toxic gas at 120 places across the city. The tests will be carried out on five days between Oct. 18 and Oct. 29.

  Most of the test sites will be above ground, including in some parks. But an unknown number of tests will be carried out below ground in subway stations across the city (exact details aren’t being released to the public).

  The public is advised: should one happen to stumble upon a test site, the gas is non-toxic and poses no public health risk.

  Although details are slim, the study is intended to simulate “the aerosol release of a biological agent in a densely populated urban environment.”

  “The study will track movement of non-toxic material and the results from these tests will be used to learn more about the relationship between airflow in street level and underground environments,” the MTA said.

  Commuters who encounter test sites will likely see teams of researchers around. The study is part of a secretive federal campaign called the Urban Threat Dispersion program. Testing has taken place in NYC before back in 2016, while cities like Washington DC and Boston have also been tested.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/13/2021 – 21:45

• Taibbi: Konstantin Kilimnik, Russiagate's Last Fall Guy, Speaks Out
  Taibbi: Konstantin Kilimnik, Russiagate’s Last Fall Guy, Speaks Out

  Authored by Matt Taibbi via TK News,

  On Real Time With Bill Maher two Fridays ago, I fumbled and deflected politely over a Russiagate question, instead of going full cage match. The segment went off the rails beginning with this exchange:

  MAHER: You compared it to WMDs. You said, the Russia connection with Trump is this generation’s WMD. I don’t think that’s an accurate analogy, because there were no WMDs. But there was collusion with Russia.

  TAIBBI: Really? Where?

  MAHER: Where? The Senate Intelligence Committee, run by Republicans, who are if anything slavish to Trump, their report said, “The Trump campaign’s interactions with Russian intelligence services during the 2016 presidential election posed a ‘grave’ counterintelligence threat.”

  First of all, that quote isn’t from the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (SSCI) report from last August. It’s actually a paraphrase of the report from an Associated Press article, “Trump campaign’s Russia contacts ‘grave’ threat, Senate says,” which reads:

  WASHINGTON (AP) — The Trump campaign’s interactions with Russian intelligence services during the 2016 presidential election posed a “grave” counterintelligence threat, a Senate panel concluded Tuesday…

  The real SSCI quote is a little different:

  Taken as a whole, Manafort’s high-level access and willingness to share information with individuals closely affiliated with the Russian intelligence services, particularly Kilimnik and associates of Oleg Deripaska, represented a grave counterintelligence threat.

  By all rights, Russiagate should be dead as a serious news story. But as the Real Time episode showed, “collusion” is still alive for some, and the bulk of the case essentially rests now upon the characterization of one person from the above passage as a Russian agent: a former aide to Paul Manafort named Konstantin Kilimnik.

  Kilimnik is a Ukrainian-American who’d served in the army and was hired to work as a translator at the American-funded International Republican Institute in Moscow beginning in the mid-nineties. In 2005, he left the IRI to go work for Paul Manafort, who was advising future president Viktor Yanukovich and the “Party of Regions” in Ukraine.

  As it happens, Kilimnik worked at the IRI in Moscow during the same time I lived in that city in the nineties and early 2000s. In fact, he was well-known enough in that small expatriate community that in the space of a day last week I was able to reach, through mutual acquaintances, five of Kilimnik’s former colleagues, including three from the IRI and one from the U.S. State Department, to whom he was a regular and valuable contact (the Senate investigators left that fact out). I also called Kilimnik and had two lengthy interviews with him.

  Why bring this up? Because in that little flurry of calls, I did more actual work on Konstantin Kilimnik than either the Special Counsel or SSCI researchers, who ostensibly spent thousands of man-hours investigating him.

  Kilimnik being a spy wouldn’t just mean that the Trump campaign had been penetrated. It would mean the same thing for the IRI, which was chaired by late Senator and leading proponent of the Russiagate theory John McCain at the time. More to the point, it would also be disastrous for the State Department, and particularly for the U.S. embassy in Ukraine, whose staffers placed great trust in “KK” as a regular source.

  The FBI’s own declassified reports show Kilimnik met with the head of the Kiev embassy’s political section “at least biweekly” during his time working with Manafort and Yanukovitch, adding that he “displayed good knowledge and seemed to know what was going on,” and came across as “less slanted” than other sources, among many other things. This fits with what I was told by multiple former colleagues of Kilimnik’s, that staffers in the Kiev embassy valued his analyses above those of some Americans in Yanukovitch’s orbit. (A third former co-worker was a little more blunt about what he heard, saying the Kiev embassy was “sucking his dick”).

  They also show the embassy was so intent on protecting Kilimnik’s identity as a State Department source that they pulled his name out of diplomatic cables sent home:

  

  Kilimnik says he “played a certain role in communication with the Western embassies in Kiev” both before and after the “Euromaidan” Revolution in 2014. “I tried to draw attention to facts about thugs attacking TV channels and opposition politicians, and things like [an arson attack against “InterTV” in 2016],” he says, adding that he “naively thought the West would stand for media freedom and protecting rules for fair play in politics, like it has for many years.”

  The only reason nobody’s asked the Senate Committee why Kilimnik’s alleged spy status doesn’t also represent a “grave” embarrassment to, say, the U.S. State Department is because our press corps is the most dogshit on earth (more on that in a moment).

  Special Counsel Robert Mueller claimed the FBI spoke to an IRI employee who said Kilimnik was “fired from his post because his links to Russian intelligence were too strong.” Though not all the IRI staffers I reached liked Kilimnik, each found the idea that he might be a spy alternately ridiculous and baffling. Multiple ex-colleagues said they believed he was fired for “moonlighting,” i.e. because he’d already started working for Manafort.

  “I was actually moonlighting. It was a funny story,” Kilimnik says (for a more complete explanation, see the Q&A below).

  As to the idea that it was known around the IRI office that Kilimnik had intelligence ties, one former senior IRI official said, “I think whoever said that, that’s someone trying to feel more important in retrospect,” adding that the idea that he was “some GRU plant from years gone by” was questionable because the Russians “didn’t know their right from their left back then, and the IRI could not described as a high-value target.” The official concluded: “I find the notion that Kilimnik is now this big figure remarkable.” None of former employees of the Moscow IRI office I spoke with had been contacted by any American investigator, including Mueller.

  Then there’s the matter of the suspect himself. Question to Kilimnik: how many times was he questioned by American authorities, with whom he was so familiar — remember he met with American officials “at least biweekly” at one point pre-Trump — during the entire Russiagate period?

  “Not a single person from the U.S. Government ever reached out to me,” Kilimnik says.

  Nobody from the Office of the Special Counsel, the FBI, or the Senate Intelligence Committee ever contacted him?

  “Not once,” Kilimnik says. “Nobody from Mueller’s team reached out to me, literally nobody.”

  In reaching Kilimnik last week I also became just the second American reporter, after Aaron Maté of RealClear Investigations and Grayzone, to call Kilimnik for comment on the Senate report. Virtually every American news organization or TV commentary program has in the last year repeated accusations against Kilimnik made by either the Senate Intelligence Committee or the U.S. Treasury Department, which earlier this year called him a “Russian Intelligence Services agent” in an announcement of sanctions against Russia.

  It was once normal practice in American media to give people a chance to respond to serious allegations, but no longer, apparently. “Zero. Zero,” says Kilimnik, when asked how many American media outlets called him after the release of the Senate report. Incidentally, Kilimnik isn’t hiding under a snow-covered trap door at a secret FSB installation outside Izhievsk. He’s in an apartment in Northwest Moscow, where anyone could find him.

  “Everybody knows my phone number. It was in Mueller’s reports,” he says. “But I got no questions. I mean, a lot of people know how to find me. I guess they just didn’t care.”

  Kilimnik was even on the list of 16 entities and 16 individuals the Treasury just this year said “attempted to influence the 2020 U.S. presidential election at the direction of the leadership of the Russian Government.” That’s the 2020 election, not the 2016 election, meaning the one that came after the Senate report.

  “The US actually sanctioned me for interference in 2020 elections,” Kilimnik says. “I would not be able to say why. I’d love to know. I’ve been sitting in fucking Moscow, in my backyard, and feeding squirrels. Must have been some sort of interference.”

  The aforementioned Maté published photos of Kilimnik’s passport that appear to show he entered the U.S. on a visa stamped in a regular Russian passport on October 28, 1997. This is the same date the Senate committee said he was entering the United States on a diplomatic passport. The Senate also said Kilimnik met with Manafort in Spain in 2017, which he denies. “I’ve never been to Spain,” Kilimnik laughs. “I haven’t been there. Let them prove I’ve been there.”

  Another thing that came up on Real Time was the idea that we shouldn’t dismiss the monetarily tiny Russian Facebook campaign — featuring classics that ironically read like Real Time bits, with images of Jesus pleading with American voters, “Struggling with addiction to masturbation? Reach out to me and we’ll beat it together” — because “9/11 didn’t cost much either”:

  

  I oversold things on the air, talking about how the Internet Research Agency only spent $100,000, as only $44,000 of that was before the campaign. More importantly, only a tiny percentage of ads qualified as coherent propaganda. I’d wager few Americans have actually read through all these ads, which have messages like, “Tell me once again that there’s no such thing as white privilege,” “Stop Trump and his bigoted agenda!”, and “Share the experience and the challenges of the black hair industry.” Overall, for 2016, they read like a creepy, overambitious parody of woke culture, with a tinge of Charlie Manson’s “Helter Skelter” plan thrown in. Whatever it is/was, it’s pretty far from 9/11:

  

  Kilimnik stands accused of helping Evil Von Putin aim this high-tech weapon. How? Senate investigators said, “Manafort briefed Kilimnik on sensitive Campaign polling data and the Campaign’s strategy for beating Hillary Clinton.” What was sensitive about it?

  “That’s bullshit. There was nothing that resembled ‘sensitive’ polling data,” Kilimnik says. “I would get two figures maybe once a month, not every day, not every week.”

  Two figures — meaning two pages?

  “Two digits,” he says. “Like, ‘Trump 40, Hillary 45.’ That’s all I would get, nothing more. So I don’t understand how this is sensitive data.”

  Kilimnik was getting his information from former Trump deputy campaign chief Rick Gates, who was directed to send the data to Kilimnik by Manafort. None other than Rachel Maddow once called Gates “Mueller’s star cooperating witness.” I called Gates last week and asked: what was he passing to Kilimnik?

  “Top-line data, and I want people to understand what that means,” he says. “It was like, ‘Ohio, Clinton 48, Trump 50,’ Or, ‘Wisconsin, Trump 50, Clinton 42.’ The sources were a combination of things like RealClear Politics and occasionally some numbers from [Republican pollster] Tony Fabrizio. But it was all just top-line stuff.”

  Gates’s story is that Manafort was passing this data back to people like his longtime sponsors, the Ukrainian barons Rinat Akhmetov and Sergei Lyvochkin, because “Paul was just trying to show that Trump was doing well,” as “Paul was just trying to do what he’s always done,” i.e. trying to show how valuable he could be.

  For those disinclined to believing the Gates or Kilimnik version of events, remember that neither Mueller nor the Senate Intelligence Committee could come up with a different one. Apart from adding “sensitive” to their description (Mueller just called it “internal polling data”), the Senate never offered evidence that Kilimnik was getting more than those few numbers. As to why Kilimnik was sent this information, this is what the Senate had to say:

  The Committee was unable to reliably determine why Manafort shared sensitive internal polling data or Campaign strategy with Kilimnik. Manafort and Gates both claimed that it was part of an effort to resolve past business disputes and obtain new work with their past Russian and Ukrainian clients by showcasing Manafort’s success.

  Why “sensitive?” The Committee was “unable to reliably determine” why, having no idea what Kilimnik did with those numbers. But they were sure enough it was bad to conclude it represented a “grave counterintelligence threat.”

  Kilimnik is roughly the twentieth suspect in a long list of alleged secret conduits that across five years have already been tried out and discarded by pundits and investigators alike as “smoking gun” links between Trump and Putin.

  An abbreviated list:

  There was a Maltese professor named Josef Mifsud and a young Trump aide named George Papadopoulos, former Trump adviser Carter Page, an alleged “secret server” supposedly pinging between Trump and Alfa Bank, former Trump campaign foreign policy adviser J.D. Gordon, former Attorney General Jeff Sessions, former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen, the Russian lawyer Natalia Veselnitskaya, real estate developer Felix Sater, another Russian who approached Trump people claiming to have dirt on Hillary Clinton named Henry Oknyansky, a Russian firm called Concord Consulting, plus Michael Flynn, Roger Stone, and many others.

  The pattern with all of these “smoking gun” cases was the same. At first, there would be a great press hullaballoo, complete with front-page media profiles and heated straight-to-camera monologues at the tops of cable commentary shows over “Breaking News” chyrons:

  Freakouts would be long, but months or years later, narratives would collapse. Ambassador Sergei Kislyak was everyone’s favorite suspect in the summer of 2016 for having done everything from rig the Republican convention platform to turning Sessions into a spy, but then Mueller quietly said Kisylak’s interactions with Trump officials in those months were “brief, public, and non-substantive.” Reporters howled that Christopher Steele was right about Cohen meeting Russian hackers in Prague to help rig the 2016 race, and even claimed (see above) that Mueller was about to release evidence of it any minute, until Mueller said flatly, “Cohen… never traveled to Prague.”

  The saddest case involved Carter Page. Steele’s Dossier identified Page — not Vladimir Putin, Julian Assange, or even Donald Trump — as the mastermind of the Wikileaks leak:

  The aim of leaking the DNC e-mails to WikiLeaks during the Democratic Convention had been to swing supporters of Bernie SANDERS away from Hillary CLINTON and across to TRUMP… This objective had been conceived and promoted, inter alia, by TRUMP’s foreign policy adviser Carter PAGE…

  Steele also had Page negotiating a massive bribe via the oil company Rosneft in exchange for the dropping of sanctions, and acting as the personal intermediary between Paul Manafort and the Kremlin. Page, not knowing he was being spied upon, told an FBI informant that August that he had “literally never met” or “said one word to” Paul Manafort, even going so far as to complain that Manafort never answered his emails. The FBI sat on this information, and wrote up a secret surveillance warrant application that read:

  Sub-Source reported that the conspiracy was being managed by Candidate’s then campaign manager, who was using, among others, foreign policy advisor Carter Page as an intermediary…

  It wasn’t until the report by Inspector General Michael Horowitz came out in December of 2019 that the world found out that the FBI not only “did not have information corroborating the specific allegations against Carter Page,” but had covered up Page’s history as an informant for the CIA, very much like the Senate and the Treasury are now covering up Kilimnik’s status as a U.S. State Department source.

  Kilimnik is just the last person on the list, and he’s conveniently in Moscow, unlikely to ever come back here to defend himself. As such, he’s the perfect fall guy for the marooned-Japanese-soldier-type holdouts on Russiagate who think the collusion narrative is still viable. More from Kilimnik:

  TK: You were described by the Senate Intelligence Committee as a “Russian Intelligence Officer.” Are you one?

  Konstantin Kilimnik: I have not had any relationship with any intelligence agency. Not with U.S. intelligence, not the Ukrainian, Russian, Zimbabwean, whatever. I’m a consultant who has worked for many years running elections in Ukraine. I just haven’t had any relationship with any intelligence, and haven’t seen any facts proving otherwise.

  I think the investigation was so politically charged from the beginning, that they just needed to find a Russian body that they could just put as much dirt as possible on. Ultimately, nobody is going to care, because all the Russians are considered to be bad anyhow, they’re all spies.

  TK: The intelligence community in the U.S. seems unanimous in their conclusion that Russians interfered in the 2016 and 2020 elections. Did they not?

  Konstantin Kilimnik: I don’t think Russians interfered… I know that runs counter to all the conclusions of the intelligence community and all that country to all the intelligence and press and all that. And maybe there were other efforts, as well. But, I was not involved in any of that.

  There was a lot of misinformation, just because the public wanted someone, and I just happened to be that person thrown into the mix. If I had Hungarian citizenship or any other citizenship, of course, people would not have given my name. They just needed the Russian connection, and I happened to be that unfortunate Russian connection.

  TK: The Mueller report claims an IRI employee believed you were “fired from his post because his links to Russian intelligence were too strong.” Others say you were “moonlighting.” Why did you leave the IRI?

  Konstantin Kilimnik: I was actually moonlighting. It was a funny story. I was looking for ways to move on, because by 2005 I had been at IRI for 10 years. Some time in mid-2004 an old IRI pal, Phil Griffin, reemerged and proposed a well-paying job of going to Ukraine and writing analyses of what was going on during the Orange Revolution, for Manafort.

  So, I went there after not having been to Ukraine for over 10 years. I was ecstatic about Kiev and got seriously interested in what was going on politically… Manafort, Griffin and I (as a translator) went to Donetsk in, I think, November 2004 to meet some guy I had no previous knowledge of (who turned out to be Rinat Akhmetov’s closest confidant, Borys Kolesnikov). Manafort and he spoke for several days and got convinced that the “Donetsk guys” were not even close to being thugs they had been portrayed by the Western media to be. I went back a couple of times to translate for these meetings, which I thought were not in any conflict with my work at IRI Moscow.

  Then, the government in Ukraine changed. [Viktor] Yuschenko became the President, Manafort was in negotiations about the contract, and I almost forgot about my short translation jobs. In April 2005, we were at an IRI retreat, and my boss, director of Europe and Eurasia programs Steve Nix got a tip from the new President’s office that “Donetsk thugs” were looking to hire an American consultant, and that a guy who seemed to work at IRI was helping in the process.

  Steve, who was very pro-Yuschenko, completely freaked out, and accused me of working for criminals. I said that a) I was doing this in my free time, 2) this did not conflict in any way with my job at IRI Russia, and 3) maybe things are not so straightforward in Ukrainian politics, and there are no guys in black and white hats, but mostly gray hats. He disagreed and demanded I resign, which I did.

  TK: The Senate claims you met Manafort in Spain in 2017. Did you?

  Konstantin Kilimnik: I have never been to Spain. (laughter)…I have not been there. They can’t prove that. And yet they’ve inserted that. And yet, that’s central to what they’re saying.

  Europe is specific place in terms of passports and immigration. To cross the border, you have to give your fingerprints, and upon any re-entry too. If I went to Spain, I can guarantee that, first of all, Europe keeps a record of that. They would say that I have crossed the border at a certain time in a certain place. And that would be okay because, again, it’s all tied to the fingerprints. You cannot get into the EU without this. You can’t fake it. So let them prove it.

  TK: You’ve been accused of obtaining that “sensitive polling data” for Oleg Deripaska. Was that right?

  Konstantin Kilimnik: No, Deripaska was a Russian businessman. I actually didn’t have any contact with him. There were Ukrainian businessmen and Ukrainian politicians in 2016 who were in opposition, and who were actually under pressure from Petro Poroshenko’s government. Naturally, for them, any change, opening a channel into the U.S. Government, that for them would have been a great thing. So that’s why they were interested in the outcome of the elections. There was no Russian connection whatsoever. If there were, they would have a record of me talking to Deripaska or visiting him.

  TK: You never had any contact with Deripaska?

  Konstantin Kilimnik: No, I haven’t met him since, I’m afraid to be exact, but like 2006, I think was the last time I saw him. I was translating for Manafort. But after that, Manafort spoke to him himself, because Deripaska spoke the language by then. And there was no need for me.

  Part 2 of my interview with Konstantin Kilimnik is coming later this week.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/13/2021 – 21:25

• NIH-Backed Study Finds Moderna, Pfizer Boosters Work Best
  NIH-Backed Study Finds Moderna, Pfizer Boosters Work Best

  After months of dithering about the potential safety risks of mixing and matching various approved COVID vaccines, a long-running NIH-sponsored study has found that patients can safely and effectively receive booster shots from any of the major approved vaccines, even as the FDA’s vaccine advisory committee has sounded lukewarm about the prospect of approving booster jabs for all adults over the age of 18.

  

  According to Bloomberg, the complicated 9-arm trial involved over 450 people and measured the effects from giving a booster shot of the Moderna, Pfizer, BioNTech or J&J vaccines to those who had originally gotten a different vaccine. The data showed that the new jabs increased patients’ levels of neutralizing antibodies, sometimes by more than would be expected if they received a third jab of the same vaccine they had received initially.

  “These data suggest that if a vaccine is approved or authorized as a booster, an immune response will be generated regardless of the primary Covid-19 vaccination regimen,” the researchers said in their conclusion.

  In the abstract from the preprint of the study (which can be found on medrxiv.org) the researchers claimed they were embarking on this research because of the persistent breakthrough infections that continue to occur in some patients. While “homologous” mRNA booster jabs have received approval in some jurisdictions (Israel, and now the EUA, are now allowing some patients to receive a third dose of whatever initial jab they received)

  In total, 458 individuals were enrolled: 154 received mRNA-1273 (Moderna), 150 received Ad26.CoV2.S (J&J), and 154 received BNT162b2 (Pfizer) booster vaccines. The study was sponsored and primarily funded by the NIH.

  Participants were divided into nine groups with roughly 50 volunteers in each. Those who initially got the two-dose Moderna vaccine got either another Moderna shot, a Pfizer shot or a J&J shot as a booster four to six months after their primary immunization.

  People who got the two-dose Pfizer vaccine got either another Pfizer shot or a Moderna or J&J booster. And people who got the one-shot J&J vaccine, either got another J&J shot, or a Moderna or Pfizer booster. Antibody levels were then measured at two weeks and four weeks after the booster dose.

  

  Data showed that homologous boosters increased neutralizing antibodies by 4.2-20-fold while heterologous boosters created an increase of 6.2-76-fold. The conclusion: Conclusion: “Homologous and heterologous booster vaccinations were well-tolerated and immunogenic in adults who completed a primary Covid-19 vaccine regimen at least 12 weeks earlier.”

  Notably, the study found that for patients who initially received the J&J jab, switching to an mRNA jab (Pfizer’s or Moderna’) for the booster dose might afford them better protection. Regardless of the initial jab, Pfizer and Moderna boosters appeared to work best.

  More detail about the study are expected Friday afternoon during a meeting of an FDA advisory panel, where researchers conducting the trial are scheduled to give a presentation on their early findings. A panel will also meet Thursday to deliberate over Moderna’s application for booster-jab approval.

  Find the full pre-print below:

  2021.10.10.21264827v1.full by Joseph Adinolfi Jr. on Scribd

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/13/2021 – 21:05

• Victor Davis Hanson: The Left Got What It Wanted – So Now What?
  Victor Davis Hanson: The Left Got What It Wanted – So Now What?

  Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via AmGreatness.com,

  There is no schadenfreude in seeing the Left destroy everything it touches – because its claws tear all of us as well…

  

  What was the purpose for the insane opposition of the Left between 2017 and 2021? To usher in a planned nihilism, an incompetent chaos, a honed anarchy to wreck the country in less than a year?

  Then

  No sooner had Donald Trump entered office than scores of House Democrats filed motions for impeachment, apparently for thought crimes that he might, some day, in theory, could possibly commit.

  Foreign Policy published an article by a liberal Obama Administration lawyer outlining all the ways to remove an elected president as soon as possible—including consideration of a military coup. 

  The FBI and the entrenched bureaucrats at the Justice Department continued their prior failed efforts during the campaign to seed the lies of the fabricated Steele dossier and Fusion GPS. A 22-month-long and $40 million hoax ended with the special counsel himself, a doddering Robert Mueller, swearing under oath that he essentially knew nothing about the dossier or Fusion GPS—the twin catalysts that had prompted his very own investigation. 

  Fired FBI Director James Comey—a lion on Twitter, and a lamb when under oath—on over 240 occasions testified to the Congress that he either did not know or could not remember, when asked details about the collusion fraud that the philosopher G-man had helped perpetuate. 

  No one worried about the weaponization of government. So, we went right from the nefarious legacy of John Brennan (who lied under oath to Congress twice), James Clapper (who lied under oath to Congress once), James Comey (who leaked confidential presidential memos), Andrew McCabe (who gave false testimony to federal investigators), Lisa Page (who was fired from the special counsel’s legal team for various unprofessional conduct), Peter Strzok (about whom there is not enough space to detail his transgressions), and the now convicted felon Kevin Clinesmith onto the next round of impeachments. 

  Two of them followed. Neither was conducted by a special counsel. There was no array of witnesses, no prosecutorial report. Much less were there formal charges of a specific high crime or misdemeanor, or bribery or treason, as specified by the Constitution. 

  In the end, both farces ended in trials—but not before the Left had established lots of baleful precedents. Impeachment is now simply a tool to embarrass a president in his first term when he has lost the House. A Senate trial could hound an innocent president, even as a private citizen out of office. And a chief justice need not preside over the Senate trial. If and when Joe Biden loses the House, the Left should applaud any attempt to impeach him—given it established the new model of opposition.

  Of the January 6 debacle, we were not told that it was a riot involving lawbreakers who would be punished. Instead, we were lied to that it was an “armed insurrection,” a “coup,” and “a rebellion” of massive proportions. 

  Our esteemed retired military and civil libertarians who had damned the mere thought of using federal troops to quell the prior four summer months of continuous rioting were suddenly happy to see 25,000 federal soldiers patrol Washington to hound out fantasy second-wave insurrectionists. In Animal Farm fashion, there were now to be good federal troops deterring mythical violent domestic extremists, but bad federal troops who should never stop real, ongoing mayhem in the streets.

  It mattered nothing that “armed” in the case of January 6 meant that no firearms were used or even found among the protestors. No one was charged with conspiracy, insurrection, or racketeering. But many were placed in solitary confinement without specific charges being filed—to the utter delight of liberal groups like the ACLU and human rights organizations.

  The FBI—recently known mostly for spreading Hillary Clinton’s campaign collusion hoax—found no premeditated grand plot. The remaining media narratives were also untrue: Capitol police officer Brian Sicknick was not murdered, but died tragically of a stroke the next day. Five persons were not “killed.” Four who died were Trump supporters. Only one of the five deaths occurred at the hand of a known other—a 14-year military veteran, unarmed, 110-pound female Ashli Babbitt. She was fatally shot while attempting to enter through a window of the Capitol by a law-enforcement officer—to the frequent approbation of the left-wing commentariat. The officer’s name was hidden for months from the public—something conspicuously uncharacteristic in other cases where law enforcement officers are involved in shooting unarmed suspects. 

  Videos surrounding the entire melee still have been repressed. They likely will never be released. That infamous day remains in dire contrast to the prior 120 days of continuous rioting, looting, and arson. In the election-year summer 2020, federal courthouses and iconic buildings were torched. Nearly $2 billion worth of property was destroyed and 28 were killed. 

  Yet current Vice President Kamala Harris rallied the public to help bail out the arrested. And the architect of the “1619 Project” reassured Americans that crimes against property like arson and looting are not really violence per se. The weeks of “spontaneous” mayhem magically vanished after November 3, 2020. Note that esteemed medical professionals argued that BLM protestors who flooded the streets were exempt from quarantine, social distancing, and mask requirements, given their higher morality. There are now good riots and bad ones, and noble sustained silence about a noble officer who lethally shoots an unarmed suspect, and noble immediate outing of an ignoble officer who lethally shoots an unarmed suspect.

  These were merely the main media distortions and fixations over the last four years. We forget the daily craziness such as a president’s calls to foreign heads of state routinely leaked or the FBI director passing on confidential memos of private presidential conversations to the liberal press, or the “whistleblower” who was not a whistleblower as much as a Democratic operative. The media nadir came when the press bellowed that Trump had overfed a fish.

  An array of retired four-stars damned their president as Hitlerian, Mussolini-like, and deserving an early exit from office. Their superior morality naturally excused them from abiding by the Uniform Code of Military Justice. 

  The New York Times falsely identified a minor Trump Administration bureaucrat (“anonymous”) as a major conservative truth-teller—once he thrilled the media by lying that a large, morally superior, inside cabal was devoted to obstructing the implementation of a president’s orders. Everyone from Hillary Clinton to an active FBI lawyer bragged of joining the “Resistance,” with plenty of conspiratorial retro-accusations that the 2016 election was “rigged.”

  All that was a warm-up for the plague year in which Donald Trump was blamed for every COVID death. His medical advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci was deified, due largely to his coy opposition to the president he was supposed to serve. 

  Both the current president and vice president had, less than a year ago, urged Americans not to be vaccinated, given their own reluctance to take a “Trump” vaccine. At least the anti-vaxxers had consistent opposition to the experimental inoculations; in contrast, the anti-Trumper anti-vaxxers merely saw sabotaging the 2020 vaccination program as necessary to be in a position to claim it as their own in 2021.

  Now

  What did all that madness achieve? Mostly, the first election in U.S. history in which over 100 million ballots were not cast on Election Day. Strangely, with such an avalanche of ballots, the usual error rate of absentee balloting dived from around 2-4 percent to 0.2-0.4 percent. You see, when we suddenly must count tens of millions more paper ballots then it becomes easier, not harder, to spot errors.

  So, the Left won its Pyrrhic victory. 

  The nation was done with the demonized Trump and now the Left controlled the presidency, and both houses of Congress. Somnolent Ol’ Joe Biden from Scranton pledged to heal the nation as he overturned his predecessor’s supposedly disastrous policies and went on a rampage of slandering his opponents. If Donald Trump was once damned as non compos mentis, the same media and academic accusers kept mum as Biden shuffled, fell, went mute, slurred words, and went off on angry, disjointed, and incoherent riffs.

  What followed was a concerted effort to destroy the Trump record: the greatest level of combined annual natural gas and oil production in any nation’s history, record low minority unemployment and near record peacetime, general unemployment, a border secure and illegal immigration finally under control, and a New Middle East in which Israel and its Arab enemies concluded neutrality pacts. China was put on notice for its past mockery of global norms. Inflation was low, growth was good. “Stagflation” was still a rarely remembered word from the past.

  And again, what was all that Pavlovian nihilism to achieve? 

  Within eight months the following was finalized: Joe Biden utterly destroyed the idea of a border. Some 2 million were scheduled to cross illegally in the current fiscal year. The sheer inhumanity of deplorable conditions at the border surpassed any notion of the “cages” Donald Trump, in fact, had inherited from the humanitarian Barack Obama. 

  A war almost immediately broke out in the Middle East, once Biden distanced the United States from Israel and rebooted the radical Palestinian cause. 

  The Taliban defeated the 20-year effort of the United States in Afghanistan, in the most humiliating withdrawal of the American military in over 45 years. Tens of billions of dollars of abandoned military equipment now arm the Taliban and have turned Afghanistan into a world arms mart for terrorists. Iran is emboldened and speeds up its nuclear proliferation efforts. China brags that the United States has been Afghanistanized and will not defend its allies, Taiwan in particular. 

  At home, gas prices have soared. Prior trillion-dollar deficits now seem financially prudent in comparison to multitrillion-dollar red ink. The nation is more racially polarized than at any time in the last half-century. A bleak and venomous woke creed has outdone the hate and fear of the McCarthyism of the 1950s, as it wages war on half the nation for various thought crimes and the incorrect idea that the United States was, is, and always will be a kind and humane place.

  More will likely have died each day from COVID by year’s end during the Biden first 12 months than during Trump’s last 12 months. That statistic perhaps might have been meaningless had Biden himself not demagogued the idea that a president is strangely responsible for all pandemic deaths on his watch. 

  But then again, Biden had warped the pandemic narrative only after he had inherited the Trump vaccination program (17 million vaccinated by Inauguration Day). Biden was wrongly and prematurely convinced that vaxxes were a permanent prophylaxis to any sort of COVID variants that would simply disappear once he took office. Depending on the occasion, Biden claims none, or just 4 million, were vaxxed until he took office, as truth and fantasies waft through his cloudy cognition.

  With Biden came not just woke polarization, stagflation, a subsidized ennui that erodes the work ethic, and selective nonenforcement of existing laws: Worse, still, we got a bankrupt ideological defense of these insanities. Critical legal theory, critical race theory, and a new monetary theory were all dreamed up by parlor academics to justify the nihilism. 

  Did America ever believe that the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff would trash his commander in chief as Hitlerian to journalist hitmen, or allegedly denounce news organizations as “terrorists,” or interrupt the chain of command on a prompt by the Speaker of the House, or warn the Chinese military that he believed there was enough instability in the White House to justify a promise to warn of any impending U.S. military action against Beijing deemed offensive? Was General Milley suffering from the very “white rage” he sought to ferret out?

  With Biden, China is now omnipresent in the halls of power. A task of our chief COVID advisor, Anthony Fauci, seems to be to deny repeatedly that his stealthy funding of gain-of-function research at the Wuhan virology lab in China had anything to do with the likely accidental release of a likely human engineered and energized coronavirus. Americans still cannot even imagine that their government might have helped subsidize the plague germ that has wrought such havoc upon them.

  Meanwhile the president’s son still owns a 10 percent cut in a communist Chinese government-affiliated financial venture, apparently due to his prior drug-addled record of financial mismanagement. The media still insists Hunter Biden’s laptop was “Russian disinformation,” while his paint-by-numbers art is auctioned off to foreign lobbyists expecting a return of the old days when Hunter and Joe grandly arrived on Air Force Two to do their bidding. 

  What did the Left leave as the proper model for conservatives now to deal with Biden? 

  Impeach him when he loses the House? Get a special counsel, lavish said counsel with $40 million, a dream team of right-wing lawyers, and 22 months to find real Chinese collusion? 

  Start seeding a conservative version of Lt. Colonel Alexander Vindman and an “anonymous” whistleblower inside the Biden octopus? 

  Get retired four-star generals on TV to swear Biden is a Chinese “asset,” or have them retweet the idea of sending Biden supporters to China, or swear that he is a fascist? Bring back Woodward and Bernstein to find out whether Biden, Inc. ever paid taxes on all that Chinese and Ukrainian cash? 

  Call in the ubiquitous Dr. Bandy X. Lee from Yale to administer the Montreal Cognitive Assessment to prove that Biden can distinguish a camel from an elephant or a train from a bike or count backwards from five? 

  Will the Right prod General Mark Milley’s replacement to collude with soon-to-be Speaker Kevin McCarthy and call the Russians to warn them that Biden is demented, democracy is “messy,” Kamala Harris is crazy, and thus Moscow might need a warning from us about any Biden preemptive aggression?

  And what of the people who voted for this change and the media that empowered it? In the latest Quinnipiac poll, known for its liberal affinities, Biden now earns a 38 percent approval rating. We should add a few extra negative points given media bias. Do they suffer buyer’s remorse or angst that they were lied to by the hard Left that Joe Biden was cognizant and not a mere vessel for a two-year push for overt socialism?

  Meanwhile the media is reduced to explaining why an undocumented activist has an understandable right to chase a liberal Democratic senator into a public restroom, hector her, and then video her as she enters a stall to relieve herself and then post the grotesqueness on the internet—a felony in the state of the Arizona, though just part of the “process” for the president of the United States.

  We could call the above insanity nemesis for woke hubris. Or maybe it is karma, “payback’s a bitch,” or “what goes around comes around.” But there is no schadenfreude in seeing the Left destroy everything it touches—because its claws tear all of us as well.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/13/2021 – 20:45

• Chaos In Texas As Employees Fired For Refusing To Get Vaxxed Demand Their Jobs Back
  Chaos In Texas As Employees Fired For Refusing To Get Vaxxed Demand Their Jobs Back

  Things are getting very confusing in Texas.

  Shortly after governor Greg Abbott issued an executive order banning the vaccine mandates by any employer, which in turn was followed by several prominent Texas corporations – such as IBM, American Air, Southwest – saying they would snub the EO and back Biden on shots, we’ve reach a point where some employers side with the governor, others side with the president, meanwhile employees have no idea what they have to do (or not do), while yet another group of (former) employees that was fired for refusing to comply with the mandates is now trying to get their jobs back. 

  As Houston Public Media reports, more than 150 former employees of Houston Methodist Hospital, who either quit or were fired in June over a vaccine mandate policy will demand to be rehired after Gov. Abbott issued an executive order on Monday banning any entity in the state from implementing such mandates, according to a lawyer representing the former employees.

  Attorney Jared Woodfill, who represents almost 200 healthcare workers in multiple lawsuits against Methodist, said executive order GA-40 makes the hospital’s policy illegal.

  “Governor Abbott says very clearly, ‘whereas countless Texans fear losing their livelihoods because they object to receiving a COVID-19 vaccination for reasons of personal conscience,’” he said. “That applies to every plaintiff that I represent, and every plaintiff that Methodist hospital thought it was appropriate to fire.”

  Woodfill said he planned to send a formal request to the hospital on Tuesday in an attempt to reinstate the former employees.

  As we reported at the time, Houston Methodist, which operates several hospitals in the area and has more than 25,000 employees, was the first hospital in the country to implement a vaccine mandate for workers in April sparking a fierce legal battle between hundreds of employees and the hospital. In June, 178 employees were suspended after declining to receive a COVID-19 vaccine. Weeks later, 153 employees either resigned or were terminated. According to Methodists’ numbers, 25 opted to get vaccinated and return to work.

  In a statement, Methodist CEO Marc Boom didn’t touch on whether or not the former employees would be allowed back, but said he was “deeply disappointed” by Abbott’s order. He added that the order wouldn’t have an impact on Methodist since the hospital implemented its vaccine mandate months ago.

  The hospital system is still reviewing Abbott’s order and its possible implications, but because its own rule went into effect months ago, 100% of its employees are compliant with the vaccine policy, according to Boom. 

  “We are reviewing the order now and its possible implications,” the statement read.

  “We expect all of our employees and physicians to be vaccinated as we must continue doing everything possible to keep all our patients and each other as safe as possible until this pandemic is over.”

  He added that “not only are our patients safe as a result, but we are able to remain healthy at work and be there for our community when it needs us the most.”

  Boom said he hoped that other Texas hospitals, like Baylor College of Medicine and Memorial Hermann, would continue to implement their vaccine mandates despite the governor’s orders.

  “We are grateful we mandated the vaccine early so the order will not have an immediate impact on us,” Marc Boom, the chief executive officer of Houston Methodist, wrote in an email. “But we are concerned for other Texas hospitals that may not be able to continue their mandates now with this executive order.”

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/13/2021 – 20:25

• Lira Crashes To Record Low After Turkey's Erdogan Fires Three More Central Bankers
  Lira Crashes To Record Low After Turkey’s Erdogan Fires Three More Central Bankers

  At this point, we’ve lost count of how many central bankers Turkey’s authoritarian head Erdogan has fired, so a quick stroll down memory lane helped us remember:

  • July 2019: Lira Crashes After Erdogan Unexpectedly Fires Turkey’s Central Bank Governor
  • Nov 2020: Erdogan Fires Turkish Central Bank Governor, Launching Full-Blown Currency Crisis
  • March 2021: Turkey In Turmoil Again: Erdogan Fires Second Central Bank Chief In 4 Months, Sparking Foreign Capital Panic
  • May 2021: Erdogan fires deputy governor of Turkey’s central bank

  One look at the headlines above reveals that Erdogan, who himself is technically the head of the central bank as he can replace any current central bank governor that does not do his bidding and swap in some figurehead, tends to have a short fuse when it comes to heads of TCMB when they don’t follow the crackpot economic “theory” known as Erdoganomics according to which cutting interest rates is the way to lower inflation, not vice versa. It’s also why back in June when the Turkish central bank kept rates unchanged despite Erdogan’s prodding for a rate cut (even as Turkish inflation was well in the double digits), we predicted – jokingly – that Erdogan was about to fire everyone.

  Turkish Central Bank Keeps Benchmark Rate Unchanged at 19%

  Erdogan is about to fire everyone

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 17, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Well, he didn’t “fire everyone”, but he definitely sent a message and back in September, the central bank shocked the market when it cut rates by 100bps to 18% with consensus again expecting an unchanged decision. The move sent the lira plunging to an all time low.

  Alas, it turns out that the pace of cuts was not to Erdogan’s liking and earlier today when we noted a Bloomberg headline that Erdogan was meeting with his central bank puppet, Kavcioglu, we said it was “game over” as more heads were about to roll.

  *TURKISH PRESIDENT ERDOGAN MEETS CENBANK GOVERNOR: PRESIDENCY

  And… game over

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 13, 2021

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  This time we were correct, and late on Wednesday evening, President Erdogan fired three members of the central bank’s interest-rate setting committee in a midnight decree after meeting with Governor Sahap Kavcioglu who was appointed by Erdogan to lead the central bank in March, replacing his hawkish predecessor Naci Agbal.

  Erdogan removed deputy governors Semih Tumen and Ugur Namik Kucuk, along with Monetary Policy Committee member Abdullah Yavas, according to the decree. He appointed Taha Cakmak as deputy governor and Yusuf Tuna as an MPC member.

  According to Bloomberg, the changes followed a meeting between Erdogan and Kavcioglu on Wednesday evening, where the two discussed changes to the committee. Kucuk was the only member of the committee who voted against Kavcioglu’s interest-rate cut last month, thus committing professional career suicide. Yavas didn’t vote because he had contracted Covid-19 in the U.S., where he lives, but that was enough to prompt Erdogan’s ire and to get him sacked.

  Erdogan probably wanted to fire the head as well, but just last week, Erdogan’s office refuted a Reuters report that said Erdogan is “cooling” on Kavcioglu in the job even though the central banker had cut rates just over a month ago – a move sure to make Erdogan happy – despite explosive inflation crushing Turkey’s economy. The inflation rate was 19.6% in September, when Kavcioglu lowered the benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points to 18%.

  

  Predictably, the lira – which has been hitting new all time lows almost daily – dropped to a record low against the dollar, and extended its losses to nearly 5% against the dollar since the governor delivered his surprise interest-rate cut on Sept. 23.

  The Turkish presidency posted a picture of the two men together on Twitter after the meeting, and Erdogan’s office described the conversation as “positive.” The presidency also said the two men discussed the general economic situation.

  Cumhurbaşkanı @RTErdogan, Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) Başkanı Şahap Kavcıoğlu’nu Çankaya Köşkü’nde kabul etti. pic.twitter.com/zpjiEkcnVv

  — T.C. Cumhurbaşkanlığı (@tcbestepe) October 13, 2021

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  The lira fell 1% to a fresh record low of 9.1883 per dollar…

  

  … and by now it should have become clear to even the most die-hard EM fanatic desperate for carry that any long position in the lira is career suicide. Which is why very soon we may see a wholesale capital flight out of Turkey which leads to total economic catastrophe, not to mention hyperinflation, for the NATO member state.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/13/2021 – 20:05

• New Zealand Forces Vaccination Mandate On All Education, Health-Care Workers
  New Zealand Forces Vaccination Mandate On All Education, Health-Care Workers

  New Zealand announced late Monday that it would join the growing list of developed nations forcing workers – or at least certain workers – to choose: either accept the jab, or lose your job.

  One week after Canada adopted mandatory vaccination rules for federal workers and travelers, New Zealand has announced its own vaccine mandates for most teachers and health care workers.

  

  Per NZ’s Liberal-led government, doctors, nurses and other health-care workers must be fully vaxxed by Dec. 1, while everyone working in education who has contact with students must be vaccinated by Jan. 1.

  “We can’t leave anything to chance so that’s why we are making it mandatory,” said COVID Response Minister Chris Hipkins, who is also the country’s education minister.

  “Vaccination remains our strongest and most effective tool to protect against infection and disease,” Hipkins said.

  New Zealand briefly enjoyed COVID-free status after the initial global outbreak, but the country’s “drawbridge” strategy was unable to keep out the delta variant, imposing a lockdown in Auckland, the country’s largest city after confirming just a single case. As cases spread despite the tightening restrictions, the government was forced to finally abandon its “COVIDZero” strategy.

  New Zealand PM Jacinda Ardern said the highly transmissible delta variant had proved a “game-changer” that can’t be easily eliminated.

  As kiwis confront the new system, the Guardian is reporting that New Zealand’s epidemiology “experts” were taken by surprise when Ardern abandoned “COVIDZero”. They said they weren’t consulted about the government’s new system, which will lessen restrictions in three stages.

  “We were obviously surprised on Monday last week when the government seemed to say that we were moving away from elimination,” said prof Michael Baker, one of the country’s most prominent pandemic communicators and a member of the ministry’s Covid-19 Technical Advisory group. “A decision of that size – changing your major strategy – you’d think you would consult with [the] quite small batch of scientists and other advisers who work very hard to support the government … explaining things to the public.”

  “That was very unusual. I think the government’s done a great job generally with consultation and getting us all to at least understand the rationale for change.”

  Others insisted that the only way out for the country is full vaccination.

  Now, keep in mind, New Zealand has confirmed fewer than 5K cases and fewer than 30 deaths.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/13/2021 – 19:45

• Kemp: Beset By Coal Shortages, India's Power Grid Struggles To Meet Demand
  Kemp: Beset By Coal Shortages, India’s Power Grid Struggles To Meet Demand

  By John Kemp, Reuters energy analyst and reporter.

  India has experienced persistent electricity shortages since the start of October as power generators have proved unable to meet resurgent demand as the economy rebounds from last year’s coronavirus-driven recession.

  The country’s power crisis stems from the same mismatch between rapidly growing demand and lagging supply that is also causing electricity shortages in China and soaring gas prices across much of Europe and Asia.

  Generation shortages are manifesting themselves in blackouts and rotating power cuts as well as persistent under-frequency on the country’s transmission system. 

  The crisis has been building for some weeks, first in the form of a slide in coal stocks, then a deterioration in grid frequency, and now most obviously in blackouts hitting parts of the country.

  

  Grid controllers normally aim to keep frequency steady and very close to target, minimizing the size and duration of any deviations, which can damage generators as well as customer equipment.

  Below-target frequency indicates there is not enough generation to satisfy the total load on the transmission system (by contrast, above-target frequency indicates there is too much generation).

  India has a grid frequency target of 50 cycles per second (Hertz) with controllers tasked with keeping it steady between 49.90 Hz and 50.05 Hz to maintain the network in a safe and reliable condition.

  But average frequency has fallen well below target since the start of October, and the shortfalls have become larger and longer, indicating a chronic shortage of generation.

  

  On Monday, the average frequency fell to just 49.96 Hz, down from 50.03 two weeks earlier, and the proportion of time spent below the minimum target increased to 21%, from less than 1%.

  On Oct. 7, the worst day of the power shortages so far, the average frequency dropped to just 49.93 Hz, and the grid was below its minimum target for almost 28% of the day.

  

  Transmission controllers have been forced to inflict local blackouts to prevent frequency dropping even further and threatening the overall stability of the network.

  On Oct. 7, the nationwide shortage peaked at 11.7 Gigawatts and the day’s total unmet electricity demand hit 114 million kilowatt-hours, equivalent to almost 3% of total demand.

  COAL SHORTAGE

  Thermal power generators, most of them fuelled by coal, have proved increasingly unable to keep up with customer demand and the generation plan.

  

  Cumulative power production since the start of April has fallen 21.5 Terawatt-hours (-2.9%) behind plan, worsening from a deficit of 11.6 TWh (-2.0%) at the end of August.

  Thermal power generation has now fallen 21.7 TWh (3.6%) behind plan, from a deficit of 9.7 TWh (-2.0%) at the end of August.

  The shortfall in coal-fired generation has become so large it can no longer be covered by the above-plan output from nuclear and hydro sources.

  

  Coal-fired power plants are encountering increasing problems securing enough fuel to meet planned generation owing to a combination of fuel shortages and transport problems.

  Coal-fired power plants have an average of just 4 days of fuel on hand compared with 19 days in October 2020 and 12 days before the pandemic in October 2019.

  Coal stocks are rated critically low at 116 out of 135 generating plants (86%) across the country and those power plants account for 142 GW of generating capacity out of a total of 165 GW (86%).

  Fifteen power plants have less than one day of fuel on hand and another 47 have only 1-2 days fuel in their yards, according to daily reports from the Central Electricity Authority (CEA).

  Power producers report coal shortages are currently responsible for forced outages or some loss of production at 60 generating units across the country (“Daily maintenance report”, CEA, Oct. 11).

  Outages and losses are reported at coal-fired units in the states of Uttar Pradesh (14), Maharashtra (11), Gujarat (7), Rajasthan (6), Chhatisgarh (6), West Bengal (5), Punjab (4), Tamil Nadu (3), Karnataka (3) and Madhya Pradesh (1).

  Until fuel stocks improve and more coal-fired plants are able to return to full production the electricity grid will struggle to meet high levels of power demand.

  * * * 

  What’s worse, the energy crisis rippling worldwide could be doomed to repeat in the US. For more on that, read: “Energy Crisis May Unleash Winter Blackouts Across US, Insider Warns.” 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/13/2021 – 19:25

• Taiwan Is Part Of China, Russia Declares, As Two Powers Coordinate To Resist US Pressure
  Taiwan Is Part Of China, Russia Declares, As Two Powers Coordinate To Resist US Pressure

  Russia has entered the fray in terms of interjecting in the ratcheting rhetoric between China and the US on the Taiwan issue. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov made Moscow’s stance on the issue clear, firmly stating that Russia affirms its position that the island belongs to China. 

  “Just like the overwhelming majority of other countries, Russia views Taiwan as part of the People’s Republic of China. This is the premise we proceed from and will continue to proceed from in our policy,” Lavrov told reporters Tuesday, as cited in Interfax.

  The statement was in response to a press question over whether the geopolitical tensions growing around Taiwan constitute a threat to regional security that Russia is concerned about. His statement about the “overwhelming majority” of nations holding Russia’s same view is certainly accurate, given Washington technically falls into the same category, while a mere 14 countries today have diplomatic relations with Taipei. 

  

  Lavrov did just days ago indicate the Kremlin is watching things with growing concern, as the US transfers weapons to Taiwan, continues sending occasional provocative delegations, and as The Wall Street Journal days ago confirmed, has a kept a contingent of US Marines on the ground to train local forces. 

  Lavrov said last week at a defense conference: “The Indo-Pacific concept is aimed at breaking up this system that relied on the need to respect the indivisibility of security,” in reference to the latest US coalition-building efforts within ‘the Quad’ nations of Australia, India and Japan, ostensibly toward maintaining a “free and open Indo-Pacific.” 

  Lavrov pointedly charged that this US policy “has openly proclaimed that its chief objective is containing China.” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian was quick to welcome the remarks and Russia’s input on issues afflicting the South China Sea, specifically praising the remarks soon after as “well-put indeed!” – saying “Lavrov’s views reflect the shared concern of the vast majority of ASEAN countries.” The Chinese FM further blasted US policy as a reckless Cold War relic that Washington has lately revived:

  “The US Indo-Pacific strategy, AUKUS and Quad are all closed and exclusive cliques informed by the Cold War zero-sum mentality with strong military security undertones. They will spur regional arms race, aggravate tension, and undermine regional unity and cooperation.

  The US practice of ganging up against a third party runs counter to regional countries’ common aspiration to seek shared development through dialogue and cooperation and advance regional integration. It wins no hearts and has no future. Many ASEAN countries have questioned and opposed these moves to various degrees.”

  Zhao had also returned the favor, stepping into Russia’s corner on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which the US, Ukraine, and some EU allies have sought to block. 

  “At least we’ve got Biden” — not a single Taiwanese person ever https://t.co/OTKmRXFCzQ

  — Tom Elliott (@tomselliott) October 12, 2021

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  “It is well-known that the Nord Stream 2 project shows energy complementarity between Russia and Europe, and would help resolve the European energy crisis,” Zhao said during those last Friday remarks defending Russia. “The U.S., however, to serve its own geopolitical interests and monopolize the European energy market, spares no effort in disrupting and hobbling relevant projects to undermine the interests of Russia and Europe and their cooperation. This wins no support.”

  He then actually linked the two issues as representative of the United States’ ‘bullying’ approach (a term top Chinese leaders have lately used with increased frequency): saying “the U.S. is adept at politicizing issues in all means and would hurt others indiscriminately, including its allies and partners, for its own interests.”

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/13/2021 – 19:05

• Supply Chain Disruptions Force White House To Ask Walmart, UPS, FedEx To Increase Output
  Supply Chain Disruptions Force White House To Ask Walmart, UPS, FedEx To Increase Output

  By Jack Phillips of Epoch Times,

  Carriers of goods including Walmart, UPS, and FedEx are moving to work more shifts—including 24 hours per day, seven days per week—to address global supply disruptions that have contributed to a surge in inflation, the White House said Wednesday. The update was announced ahead of President Joe Biden’s meeting with the heads of Walmart, FedEx, and UPS to address the supply chain bottlenecks before the Christmas season.

  

   

  According to a fact sheet released by the administration, Walmart said it would “increase its use of night-time hours significantly and projects they could increase throughput by as much as 50 percent over the next several weeks.”

  Meanwhile, UPS said it would commit to use 24/7 operations “and enhanced data sharing with the ports” to move more containers out of ports, said the White House.

  And FedEx, the fact sheet said, will “work to combine an increase in nighttime hours with changes to trucking and rail use to increase the volume of containers it will move from the ports.”

  UPS and FedEx combined shipped approximately 40 percent of U.S. packages by volume in 2020, the White House said. A White House official told news outlets on Wednesday that FedEx, UPS, and Walmart will move toward a 24/7 working schedule.

  

  “Across these six companies over 3,500 additional containers per week will move at night through the end of the year,” said the fact sheet. “Those boxes contain toys, appliances, bicycles, and furniture that Americans purchased online or at their local small business, and pieces and parts that are sent to U.S. factories for our workers to assemble into products.”

  Additionally, the Port of Los Angeles will move to 24/7 service, coming after the Port of Long Beach began similar operations several weeks ago, officials said.

  The International Longshore and Warehouse Union also made a commitment to staffing 24/7, meaning that it will double the “hours that cargo will be able to move out of its docks and on highways,” according to the White House.

  The supply crisis is driven in part by the global COVID-19 pandemic and potential vaccine mandates, as sales of durable goods jumped amid worker shortages and transportation hub slowdowns. Lower-than-expected Christmas sales could hurt U.S. companies and pose a political risk for Biden.

  Thousands of shipping containers are on cargo ships offshore waiting to be offloaded at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Similar backlogs exist at ports in New York and Savannah, Georgia. A shortage of warehouse workers and truck drivers to pick up goods is another reason for the bottlenecks.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/13/2021 – 18:45

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• Beijing Liberalizes Coal-Fired Power Prices To Combat Energy Crunch   
  Beijing Liberalizes Coal-Fired Power Prices To Combat Energy Crunch   

  Beijing said on Tuesday it would allow price fluctuations of power derived from coal-fired plants to improve the country’s power market as shortfalls in power generation have sparked an energy crisis. 

  According to a notice from National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), electricity prices generated by coal-fired plants will be permitted to rise and fall by 20%. That compares with the prior upside limit of 10% and the lower limit of 15%. The reform would take effect from Oct. 15

  NDRC requested provincial governments to require industrial and commercial users to purchase power at market prices. The agency added liberalization of the power market would help prevent price manipulation and monopolistic practices.

  Power plants in the country have struggled to meet post-pandemic demand, and record-high coal costs have rendered many power operations uneconomical. NDRC said by allowing market forces to dictate power prices in a range of 20% will increase power generation by making loss-making generators profitable and bring online generators that were once deemed uneconomical. 

  

  NDRC official Peng Shaozong said the reform was “designed to reflect power demand and consumption, and to some extent to ease operation difficulties of power firms and encourage plants to increase power supply.”

  Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, told Reuters that liberalization of “thermal power pricing is a positive for growth by reducing power outages.”

  “Still, this comes with a further rise in price pressures, as power companies can now pass on higher input costs to their commercial and industrial customers,” Neumann said. 

  However, Lara Dong, senior director of IHS Markit, said, “power prices at 20% above coal-fired power benchmark will not be sufficient to help coal plants break even at current fuel prices.”

  And she warned that energy-intensive sectors would face record-high power prices, which is pushing up the producer price index (PPI). 

  Historically, Chinese coal prices – due to their core role as the anchor of China’s energy-intensive economy – have been the commodity that most closely has correlated with PPI. And while we wait to get the latest Chinese CPI and PPI print later this week, we can already predict what will happen this winter. 

  

  “Higher electricity price in China will add to the worry of rising global inflation,” Kevin Xie, senior Asia economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, warned.

  The reform comes as the Northern Hemisphere’s winter fast approaches, and China is facing an energy shortage of fossil fuels, including coal and natural gas. 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/13/2021 – 02:45

• Polexit!? Polish Court Overrules EU's European Court Of Justice
  Polexit!? Polish Court Overrules EU’s European Court Of Justice

  Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

  Poland and the EU are increasingly at odds. Let’s take a look at events to see where this is headed…

  

  After the top Polish court overruled the ECJ, Fears Rose the Court Ruling Points to EU Exit.

  Tens of thousands of protesters marched through Warsaw and other Polish cities late Sunday to oppose a court ruling that European Union legal judgments have become incompatible with the Polish constitution, a decision protesters fear could prompt Poland to follow the U.K. out of the bloc.

  Waving EU and Polish flags, demonstrators held banners reading “I’m Staying in Europe” and “No Polexit!”

  Unlike in the U.K., an overwhelming majority of Poles wish to stay members of the EU—as do Hungarians, another Central European country whose government is in regular conflict with the bloc over where the EU’s powers end and national sovereignty begins.

  On Thursday, Poland’s Constitutional Tribunal ruled that the process of European integration encoded in EU treaty law has reached what it called a “new stage” that is incompatible with the Polish constitution, and that the latter should take precedence when the two conflict. When joining the EU in 2004, Poland agreed to implement EU treaties, also signing up a few years later to the bloc’s updated Lisbon Treaty. Poland’s ruling party says the EU has overstepped its authority.

  In Brussels, a spokesman for the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, on Monday gave no timeline for responding to Poland. EU officials fear a domino effect and gradual disintegration of the EU’s legal and political authority if one country can overrule EU rules and EU court decisions.

  “If you allow all these fundamental principles of European integration to be hollowed out and ignored, then this is eventually the end of the EU,” said Piotr Buras, head of the European Council on Foreign Relations’ Warsaw office.

  Fertile Ground for Secession

  In Ultra Vires, a column on the situation in Poland, Eurointelligence founder Wolfgang Münchau places some of the blame for what’s happening in Poland on the German Constitutional Court located in Karlsruhe.

  In its ruling last week, Poland’s constitutional court went beyond anything the German constitutional court ever did. It declared Art. 1 of the Treaty on European Union, the clause that establishes the EU, not compatible with certain chapters of the Polish constitution. It found the same for Art. 19 TEU, which establishes the CJEU. If sustained, this would constitute a legal Polexit. If a member states believes that the EU treaties violate their national constitution, they either have to change the constitution, get the other members to agree to a change in the treaties, or leave the EU. The EU could, if it wanted to, even make an argument under international law that this ruling automatically voids Poland’s accession treaty, and thus its EU membership. 

  The role of the German constitutional court in all of this is indirect but nonetheless important. What it did was engage in a legal discourse that made the Polish outrage possible. Readers may recall that the CJEU was a big factor in the Brexit discussions. If only the remainers had known that they could have renationalised some of those powers? Despite the europhobia that led to Brexit, there was much less of a sense of secessionism in the legal profession, compared to with Germany or Poland.

  Some of the arguments used during the Polish hearings were straight copies of arguments made by the German constitutional court. Karlsruhe, for example, popularised legal concepts such as ultra vires and the democracy principle. They sound more innocent than they are. Karlsruhe argues that sovereignty can be conferred but not shared. This implies that the CJEU cannot be the arbiter of its own remit. It also means that EU law does not override national law in areas outside the agreed perimeter, and that it is the national courts that decide the precise location of that perimeter. Fiscal policy and defence are not part of that remit. So, if you want a fiscal union or a European army, you cannot do this inside the existing treaty. 

  The Polish ruling will almost surely end up in Poland backing down. I see Polexit as a possible but improbable outcome. But remember that Brexit, too, started out that way.

  The Karlsruhe version of legal euroscepticism has been far more clever, and more effective. It managed to create legal facts out of thin air that informed the EU negotiating position of successive German governments. The Polish ruling, by contrast, is drafted as a deliberate provocation that might play into the hands of Law and Justice ahead of the 2023 elections. Karlsruhe is not responsible for what is happening in Poland. But it is responsible for starting a discourse that others take up and push to the limits.

  No Polexit!?

  Münchau opines there will not be a Polexit. 

  OK, but what about changes to the existing treaties for Eurobonds, financial debt commingling, or a European army? 

  It takes unanimous consent to change anything in the EU. Heck, it took nearly a decade just to work out something seemingly simple like a trade deal with Canada.

  Half-Baked Union

  Hungary and Poland are at odds with the EU over court rulings. Other countries are tangled up with EU disputes regarding immigration and borders.

  The European Monetary Union (EMU) or Eurozone is in a similar situation.

  It takes unanimous agreement to change anything or even do many things unless there were specifically established by treaty.

  Germany demanded these unanimous consent rules out of fear of debt commingling. Now these rules hamper efforts by the EU to bring Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and other countries into line over anything not clearly spelled out.

  The EU has a half-baked union and it will stay that way unless every country agrees to changes. 

  Good luck with that.

  *  *  *

  Like these reports? If so, please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/13/2021 – 02:00

• Which War Is Beijing Preparing For?
  Which War Is Beijing Preparing For?

  Op-Ed by James Gorrie via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  

  It’s no secret that Beijing is preparing for war.

  One of the main reasons is China’s cratering economy. The recent collapse of the Evergrande real estate development firm is only the latest in a series of dire symptoms that are fueling rising domestic discontent. The $8 trillion debt crisis in the shadow economy—more than half of its GDP—is also looming large in China’s ability to keep its financial system afloat. An aging, less productive population, higher production costs, and fleeing foreign investment all result in falling GDP.

  China’s Power Has Peaked

  The reality is that China’s economic power is already declining.

  Sure, the statistics can be adjusted, but it doesn’t change reality. What’s more, this across-the-board economic decline is driving the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to impose even more extreme, oppressive measures against its people and businesses. The CCP’s response only worsens economic performance and civil unrest.

  Concurrently, Beijing has been adjusting its internal arrangements for several years. For example, its National Defense Transportation Law went into effect on Jan. 1, 2017. The law restructured its legal framework, putting all commercial shipping under direct authority of the CCP.

  Externally, China’s deepening isolation from the world is clearly evident and underscores its ongoing decoupling from the global economy and the international norms of trade and diplomacy. This trend may well make a Taiwan invasion likely sooner than later, if only to divert attention from China’s domestic problems.

  

  Military and naval experts conclude that Beijing plans to use commercial transport ships to help transport up to 2 million soldiers in a Taiwan invasion.

  Recent news reports seem to confirm such a conclusion. China’s official press, the Global Times, all but acknowledges the inevitable, if not imminent, invasion of Taiwan. “China is prepared for the worst-case scenario—the US and its allies, including Japan, launch(ing) an all-out military intervention to interrupt China’s national reunification.”

  Clearly, war or the threat of war is on the horizon, and all the nations in the Asia-Pacific region know it.

  In response to China’s increasing aggressive posture, including the commercial shipping arrangement, Taiwan and other nations are adding more long-range anti-ship missiles. Japan, which for decades has maintained a pacifist foreign policy, has also made a massive shift in its thinking, linking Taiwan’s security to its own.

  The impact of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan wouldn’t be limited to just Taiwan. Should it occur, like Japan, it will be perceived by the United States and other nations as a strategic threat to their own national security.

  This is partially due to the fact that Taiwan provides more than 50 percent of the world’s semiconductors necessary for advanced data processing, automobiles, artificial intelligence, and other high technology. But an invasion would also threaten democratic nations in the region, as well as trade and international legal norms.

  More Trigger Points

  But Taiwan is not the only trigger point. China is also threatening the uninhabited Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, which Japan considers its territory. They’re also claimed by China and Taiwan, and could become a flashpoint for war. The Biden administration has recently assured Japan’s new prime minister, Fumio Kishida, that the United States would defend the Senkaku Islands if China should attack.

  And as noted in an earlier article, the CCP has already put Australia on notice. Should Canberra acquire nuclear-powered submarines from the United States under the recent AUKUS military alliance, China would add Australia as a legitimate target for nuclear attack.

  

  South Korea has expressed clear opposition to Beijing’s ambitions in Taiwan. In a joint statement with the United States, and for the first time, both nations committed to defend international rules and norms in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait. The unusual directness of the message is an acknowledgement of the imminent threat China poses to Taiwan and the Asia-Pacific region.

  Further afield, China’s recent military skirmish with India in the Himalayan heights of the Galwan Valley has alerted New Delhi to the reality that China is seeking unambiguous hegemony over its neighbors, of which India is one. This has driven India to strategically align itself with the U.S.-led AUKUS alliance. Its recent participation in the Malabar joint naval exercises off the U.S. territory of Guam from Aug. 26 to 29 of this year sent a clear message to Beijing.

  The lynchpin to all of these arrangements is, of course, the United States. It still maintains a significant naval advantage over China. But what is less certain is the political will of the Biden administration to follow through on its military commitments. With the United States’ retreat from Afghanistan, the Biden administration is perceived as weak and more concerned with domestic economic and social issues than projecting American power to protect the international order. Around the world, confidence in American leadership is at an ebb.

  Beijing is certainly aware of these facts, and it may be influencing its strategy with respect to Taiwan and the region as a whole. Chinese leadership may have concluded that the Biden administration’s weakness poses a unique opportunity to test American resolve in the region.

  Such perceptions would help explain the new and greater threats to the United States that are coming out of Beijing. But Xi Jinping’s personal leadership and ownership of the CCP, coupled with China’s mounting domestic failures, are most certainly also contributing factors.

  China would prefer to avoid war—at least until it can match U.S. military might in the region. But one area that it does lead the United States is in hypersonic anti-ship missile technology. Rather than clashing with its neighbors, could the CCP be planning a strike on American naval forces to drive the United States from the region?

  If so, how would the United States react? How would the region react?

  Anything less than a full response by the United States to a Chinese attack would mean that the U.S.-led Asia-Pacific security alliance would immediately cease to exist. It would then likely be up to each nation to make their separate peace with Beijing—if that were even an option.

  That would suit the CCP just fine.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/12/2021 – 22:25

• "Don't Buy The Dip": BofA Explains Why The Fed Has Lowered Its Put Strike
  “Don’t Buy The Dip”: BofA Explains Why The Fed Has Lowered Its Put Strike

  One week ago, Bank of America’s derivatives team observed that “equity investors are losing confidence in Buy The Dip” and warned that after suffering a “meaningful setbacks in recent weeks,” the coast appears far from clear. The bank pointed to recent episodes of increasing market fragility, and highlighted the recent market volatility manifesting in the second daily selloff of 3 standard deviations or more in just 7 trading days, only the 24th time since 1928 that the S&P experienced two or more 3-sigma shocks within 10 trading days.

  

  Fast forward a week and BofA’s increasingly bearish derivatives team led by Riddhi Prasad and Benjamin Bowler has intensified their warning, and pointing to the market’s increasing trouble to rebound from its recent slump – it has now been 27 trading days without a record high, the longest such stretch since September 2020 – they note that momentum has been fading this fall, “and investor confidence in buying the dip may only keep waning the longer this sideways price action persists.”

  In the absence of proactive buyers – such as retail investors who have recently turned their back on the market, or aggressive stock buybacks which are currently in a blackout period due to the coming earnings season –  the “market may for the first time since the Covid shock, need to test the Fed put in the next selloff,” BofA warns.

  Then, of course, we have the Fed’s tapering. In an amusing interlude, BofA explains that the last time it warned that tapering is bearish, it got the usual “tapering is not tightening” platitudes from clients (spoiler alert: tapering is tightening as even Morgan Stanley now admits), adding that “the main pushback we received was that tapering asset purchases has a smaller economic impact than hiking rates, and is therefore a more minor threat than that of prior hiking cycles.”

  In response, the strategists counter that investors’ should focus “not just on the way tapering and hiking change the underlying economics, but on their impact on investor sentiment in today’s environment. For instance, just like the S&P thrived against 3 rate hikes in 2017 but choked on the 2018 hikes, a tapering cycle today could turn out as painful for the equity market as a prior hiking cycle.”

  Elaborating on that point, BofA starts with the obvious, namely “that unparalleled monetary policy contributed to the historic returns and valuations achieved post-Covid.”

  

  But with tapering looming and lacking such explicit Fed support, and with momentum fading this fall, “the market may need a period of bad news to get the Fed back on its side or reach more attractive valuation levels. The longer the recent sideway action persists, the weaker the momentum and confidence that investors require to buy the dip.”

  To be sure, the Fed will have one key lever to push stocks higher once tapering begins, namely jawboning about the timing of the first rate hike. That’s the lever Fed famously used to reverse falling stocks leading up to the first hike post-GFC. In October 14, St. Louis Fed President Bullard stepped in to calm markets fearful of a growth shock. In 2015, on the back of another bout of stock market weakness, Yellen pushed back a largely-expected hike around the Sep FOMC meeting and then delayed the next hike for an entire year.

  

  However, BofA cautions, “the option to delay hiking rates doesn’t rule out a period of higher volatility”, as:

  1. we still haven’t seen how the market will react to the actual taper today,
  2. the change in Fed tune means the Fed put might have to be tested (vs. the dip getting bought in anticipation), and
  3. overshooting inflation might limit the Fed’s ability to rescue the equity market as easily as it did during the last taper/tightening cycle (with inflation breakevens today well above anything experienced in the last taper and tightening cycles).

  

  In a potential double-whammy, the fact that fixed income markets are not pushing back against the Fed’s taper announcement lowers the Fed put strike, in BofA’s view. That’s because while traders generally tend to focus on equity market tantrums as the Fed’s signal to intervene, major U-turns in Fed stance were often encouraged by the bond market ‘disagreeing’ with the Fed’s plans.

  For example, the 2013 taper tantrum was by far most felt in fixed income markets, while both inflation breakevens and expected rate hikes fell sharply as Powell raised rates through the second half of 2018, indicating that well ahead of the infamous Powell pivot they already knew he was on the right path.

  

  Today, on the contrary, Eurodollar futures implied rates and inflation breakevens are rising in line with an uninterrupted hiking cycle ahead (Exhibit 9) – perhaps because investors don’t even bother to sell ahead of a market drop they know the Fed will step into and “rescue”, while rates vol has remained muted through the latest rise in long-term yields (unlike in the short-lived Treasury selloff of 1Q21; Exhibit 10). This price action – driven by bonds – has raises the Fed’s bar to easily change course if the equity weakness continues, and, as BofA warns, it calls into question where the Fed put strike is.

  To summarize BofA’s argument, between the coming taper and frequent recent warnings about euphoric markets from both FOMC talking heads and even the IMF today cautioning about a risk of sudden and steep declines in global equity prices and home values, the risk is the Fed put strike is (much) lower than the market anticipates, as:

  1. Equity valuations & returns have accelerated to extremes post-Covid,
  2. The bond market is projecting tightening is needed and
  3. Risks of inflation overshooting are increasingly real, with 5yr inflation break-evens well-above any level witnessed during the 2014-2018 taper/tightening cycle.

  As a result, Prasad warns that “the Fed may be less willing to so easily deviate from tapering plans and talk the market back up as during the last cycle, further adding to risks.” His conclusion – “bad news (delaying the Fed) would be the best news equities can wish for.”

  Translation: It’s almost time for another crisis.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/12/2021 – 22:23

• Kim Vows To Build "Invincible Military" Due To Persistent US "Hostile Actions"
  Kim Vows To Build “Invincible Military” Due To Persistent US “Hostile Actions”

  A noticeably slimmer Kim Jong Un of North Korea laid out plans to build an “invincible” military to defend against what he charged as the persistent hostile threat from the United States. The comments came during a Monday speech at a North Korean weapons exhibition, which analysts have said is a rare venue compared to the usual state venues for such a speech.

  With a variety of large missiles surrounding him at the indoor expo dubbed ‘Self-Defense 2021’ in the capital of Pyongyang, he said “The US has frequently signaled it’s not hostile to our state, but there is no action-based evidence to make us believe that they are not hostile,” and made the accusation: “The US is continuing to create tensions in the region with its wrong judgments and actions.”

  

  That’s when he said that in the face of this US “source” of instability on the Korean Peninsula, the north will prioritize attaining to “invincible military capability” that no powerful country can possibly challenge, according to the official Korean Central News Agency.

  The speech is being widely interpreted as having an aim of driving a wedge between Washington and Seoul, also given Kim underscored that Korean peoples shouldn’t be fighting each other. At the same time he stressed there was “no action-based basis” to make Pyongyang believe the US has good intentions. 

  “We are not discussing war with anyone, but rather to prevent war itself and to literally increase war deterrence for the protection of national sovereignty,” he said. International reports described some of the weapons on display as follows:

  …the weapons in the photos include what appears to be a new ICBM that North Korea disclosed during a military parade last year but hasn’t test-fired…

  Other weapons on display were another ICBM that North Korea tested in 2017; ballistic missiles that can be fired from submarines or a train; solid-fueled, short-range missiles; and a developmental hypersonic missile that had its first test-flight last month.

  

  The past weeks have seen ramped up weapons testing activity out of North Korea, after a first half of the year which was relatively quiet on the Korean peninsula (which was also Biden’s first six months in office). At the weapons exhibit from which Kim’s fiery speech was given, a number of recently tested weapons, including ICBMs, were on display. 

  A few high resolution shots from North Korea’s “Self-Defense 2021” exhibition. (None of the Hwasong-8 glider, sadly.) pic.twitter.com/jSz6WqchvL

  — Ankit Panda (@nktpnd) October 12, 2021

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  An ABC News report cited one South Korean missile expert, Lee Choon Geun, who advises government officials as saying of the occasion, “Basically, North Korea wants to send this message: ‘We’ll continue to develop new weapons and arm ourselves with nuclear force, so don’t slap sanctions with these as we can’t agree on the double standards.’“

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/12/2021 – 22:00

• Corn, Soybean Futures Dip After WASDE Forecasts Bigger Reserves
  Corn, Soybean Futures Dip After WASDE Forecasts Bigger Reserves

  Soybean and corn futures dipped in Chicago this afternoon following the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report revealed the US raised estimates for domestic stocks. 

  Soybeans fell as much as 2% to $12.00 per bushel after domestic stocks will be around 320 million bushels at the end of the season, compared with an earlier estimate of 298 million. Corn fell as much as 2% to $5.22 per bushel after domestic stocks were larger than expected, at around 1.5 billion, compared with an earlier estimate of 1.418 billion. 

  

  Ahead of the report, the Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index has declined a little more than 2% over the last few sessions. 

  

  Charlie Sernatinger, head of global grain futures at ED&F Man Capital Markets Inc. in Chicago, told Bloomberg that end-of-season estimates for corn suggest prices to dip below $5 per bushel. He said soybean ending stocks will continue to increase in future reports: “None of the row crop numbers look bullish, either short term, or down the line for further revisions.” 

  Meanwhile, wheat prices moved higher on the session and are increasingly diverging from corn and soybeans. That’s because of tight supplies.

  

  The biggest takeaway from the report is that larger than estimated corn and soybean estimates are putting downward pressure on crop prices that might be a sign of relief for soaring food prices. The latest UN data showed global food prices hit a fresh decade high earlier this month. 

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/12/2021 – 21:35

• India-China Border Talks Fail As Each Side Pursues Troop Build-Up Amid Threats
  India-China Border Talks Fail As Each Side Pursues Troop Build-Up Amid Threats

  Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

  Talks between India and China over the disputed border region in the Himalayas have broken down, with each side blaming the other for the failed negotiations. Tensions have been high between the two powers along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), which separates Indian-controlled territory from Chinese-controlled territory.

  In 2020, Chinese and Indian troops fought several skirmishes along the LAC, including one in June 2020 that turned deadly. The failed talks mean that India and China will continue to have troops forwardly deployed in Ladakh, where the skirmishes took place. China has blamed the failure on what it called “unreasonable demands” from India.

  

  “The Chinese side has made great efforts and fully demonstrated its sincerity to promote the de-escalation of the border situation,” said Long Shaohua, a spokesman for China’s Western Theater Command. “But the Indian side still insists on unreasonable and unrealistic demands, making the negotiations more difficult.”

  India rejected the Chinese claim and said it made “constructive suggestions” but that the Chinese were “not agreeable” and “could not provide any forward-looking proposals.” Before the talks concluded, India’s army chief said China is building up troops on its side of the disputed border and building infrastructure.

  “So, it means that they are there to stay. We are keeping a close watch on all these developments, but if they are there to stay, we are there to stay, too,” said Gen. M.M. Naravane.

  According to a description of heightened tensions in India’s media:

  Southeast of Galwan Valley is where 20 Indian and at least four Chinese soldiers died in clashes in June 2020, Hot Springs lies in the Chang Chenmo river valley, close to Kongka La, a pass that marks the Line of Actual Control. India’s Patrolling Point 15, it is not a launchpad for any offensive action though the area did see action before and during the 1962 war.

  China’s unwillingness to pull back its platoon-sized unit from Hot Springs is a sign of the difficulties that lie in normalising the situation. The PLA has traditionally had a major base east of Kongka La.

  

  A 2004 CIA map of the disputed Kashmir region with red circles corresponding to 2020 conflicts.

  Since the deadly June 2020 skirmish, the US has stepped up military cooperation with India, including a new military pact that shares more satellite data with New Delhi. With this increased intelligence sharing, India can keep a better eye on Chinese troops.

  * * *

  Meanwhile, here’s Rabobank’s take…

  The Global Times is also doing its usual job, but this time threatening war with India again (“New Delhi needs to be clear about one thing: it will not get the border the way it wants. If it starts a war, it will definitely lose. Any political manoeuvring and pressure will be ignored by China.”) 

  I’m a little late to this extraordinary editorial by GT on bordre standoff. It presents the dispute in very uncomplicated terms. China is more powerful, so it will do what it wants to and India must deal with it. Case closed. https://t.co/2VbT4hoHzR

  — Sreemoy Talukdar (@sreemoytalukdar) October 12, 2021

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  PLA tank exercises were reportedly held last night. Of course, one would logically presume there are more than enough fish for China to fry on the domestic and another geographic front….so ’Tra la la?’ 

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/12/2021 – 21:10

• Former Mossad Chief Stuns Audience By Admitting Iran "Not Even Close" To Getting Nuclear Bomb
  Former Mossad Chief Stuns Audience By Admitting Iran “Not Even Close” To Getting Nuclear Bomb

  Foreign Minister Yair Lapid is in Washington D.C. to meet with top Biden administration officials for talks centered on Iran as well as the Gaza Strip and other security-related matters. As expected, Lapid warned US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan that Iran is on brink of becoming a “nuclear threshold state”.

  Lapid’s office issued this statement after the Sullivan meeting: “The foreign minister shared with the national security adviser Israel’s concerns about Iran’s race toward nuclear capabilities, as well as that Iran is becoming a nuclear threshold state,” according to The Times of Israel. “Lapid also discussed with the national security adviser the need for an alternative plan to the nuclear agreement.”

  As nuclear talks between Tehran and world powers have remain stalled in Vienna, a key question at center of debate over whether the US should seek a restored JCPOA deal with Iran remains just how close is Iran to acquiring a nuke?

  

  Apparently even within the Israeli national security state, there’s a deep divide over the question, despite hawks sounding the alarm for decades that Iran is ever “on the brink” of obtaining a nuke. Or also, it could be that internally Israeli intelligence knows the Iranians are not actually close, while the politicians publicly take a very different position for propaganda purposes, and to keep up the international pressure on Tehran.

  The influential former Mossad director Yossi Cohen suggested this precisely in Tuesday comments that raised eyebrows. The Israeli intelligence veteran commander said in reality that Iran is “not even close” to getting a nuclear weapon – though he chalked this up largely to Israeli’s sabotage and espionage efforts targeting the Iranians. 

  “I think that Iran, to this day, is not even close to acquiring a nuclear weapon… This is due to longstanding efforts by some forces in the world,” he said in response to a question by Jerusalem Post intelligence reporter Yonah Jeremy Bob, which included references to Israeli covert actions in the Islamic Republic.

  Cohen added that due to Israeli intelligence efforts, Iran has “less foreign support for what [it is] doing than in the past.”

  The merely obvious https://t.co/BUzve5Pe3T

  — Daniel Larison (@DanielLarison) October 12, 2021

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  He called for a “completely refurbished” nuclear deal, or else warned that the Islamic Republic would indeed become more likely to develop a bomb. Here’s more according to The Jerusalem Post:

  If Iran develops a nuclear weapon, Israel must be able to stop it on its own, Cohen said.

  Asked if that would be possible without bunker-buster bombs, he responded: “We have to develop capabilities to allow us to be absolutely independent, doing what Israel has done twice before” – bombing nuclear reactors in Syria and Iraq.

  He further threatened that “They should not sleep quietly in Iran.” For much of the past few years Israel has been bombing what it frequently describes as ‘Iranian assets’ inside Syria. 

  The nuclear reactor reference the former Mossad chief made is to the 2007 Israeli bombing of a suspected Syrian nuclear reactor that was under construction allegedly with the help of North Korea. The attack on the Al-Kubar facility near Deir al-Zor in eastern Syria was belatedly admitted to by Israeli officials in 2018.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/12/2021 – 20:35

• UN Tells Greta Thunberg To Pound Sand Over Climate Complaint
  UN Tells Greta Thunberg To Pound Sand Over Climate Complaint

  After three years of deliberations, an 18-member UN panel told Swedish climate alarmist Greta Thunberg to pound sand – saying that it could not immediately rule on a complaint that state inaction on climate change violates children’s rights – and that the teenage exhibitionist should have taken the case to national courts first.

  

  The complaint, filed in 2019, argues that France, Turkey, Brazil, Germany and Argentina (but not China) failed to curb their carbon emissions despite knowing the risks of climate change for decades.

  “I have no doubt this judgment will haunt the committee in the future,” said US petitioner Alexandria Villasenor of the Monday judgement, according to Reuters. “When the climate disasters are even more severe than they are now, the committee will severely regret not doing the right thing when they had the chance.”

  While Thunberg has yet to comment, we assume it will be along the lines of…

  

  The case is one of a growing number of climate litigation cases that invoke human rights and is seen as setting an important precedent.

  The committee, made up of 18 independent human rights experts, concluded that a “sufficient causal link” had been established between the significant harm allegedly suffered by the children and the acts or omissions of the five states.

  However, it accepted the arguments of the five countries that the children should have tried to bring cases to their national courts first.

  “You were successful on some aspects but not on others,” the committee told the young activists in a letter, which commended them on their “courage and determination.”

  “We hope that you will be empowered by the positive aspects of this decision, and that you will continue to act in your own countries and regions and internationally to fight for justice on climate change,” the letter added.

  Attorneys representing the children said they would attempt to go through national courts, however it would likely be time-consuming and fruitless.

  “In effect, the Committee instructed the youth to squander years waiting for inevitable dismissal,” reads a late-Monday joint statement from lawyers Hausfeld and Earthjustice.

  Meanwhile, looks like Thunberg isn’t backing down in her war against all polluting countries except China.

  ‘We will hear many nice speeches, we will hear many pledges’: @GretaThunberg says she expects ‘meaningless’ pledges at #COP26 as the climate activist asserted it’s time for leaders to be honest https://t.co/lWKmS782sF pic.twitter.com/pCOb3hEC9R

  — Reuters (@Reuters) October 12, 2021

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  How. Dare. They.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/12/2021 – 20:10

• US Farm Income Booms To Near Decade Highs 
  US Farm Income Booms To Near Decade Highs 

  Farmers in America have had a banner year as crop prices soared and exports to China increased, which means farm income boomed, according to Bloomberg. 

  Farm income has been struggling over the last decade, but since President Trump’s China trade deal and virus pandemic, Beijing has instructed domestic firms to dramatically increase ag imports from the U.S. Prices have also catapulted higher and marked 2021 as a pretty good damn year to be an American farmer. 

  

  USDA estimates farm income from crops to surge around 20% to $230.1 billion in 2021, the second-highest ever, almost surpassing the record in 2012. 

  

  It remains unclear how long the good times will last, considering snarled supply chains and the cost of everything is on the rise. Energy, fertilizer, machinery, and labor costs are rising, indicating margin compression ahead. There’s also an issue of slumping corn and soybean prices from their highs in recent months. 

  

  But the Bloomberg ag index remains in an overall uptrend.

  

  Bloomberg expects the USDA to increase estimates for domestic corn and soybean stockpiles on Tuesday. 

  Even with record drought and back-to-back heat waves in the western half of the U.S., farmers like Zach Egesdal in Iowa still “produced better than we thought with the limited moisture.” 

  “We’ve sold more than we have in the last few years out of the field for both corn and soybeans,” Egesdal told Bloomberg. “We were able to lock in a profit and made more sales.” 

  Rising costs and uncertainty could doom farm income in 2022: 

  “All of our inputs for next year are going to be significantly higher than what they were this past year,” farmer Pat Swanson from Iowa said. 

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/12/2021 – 19:45

• Oregon Senators Call For Investigation Into Alleged COVID-19 Statistical Manipulation
  Oregon Senators Call For Investigation Into Alleged COVID-19 Statistical Manipulation

  Authored by Tammy Hung via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  

  Oregon state Sens. Kim Thatcher and Dennis Linthicum, both Republicans, have petitioned Acting U.S. Attorney Scott E. Asphaug to launch a grand jury investigation into the measurement of COVID-19 statistics by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

  Thatcher and Linthicum submitted the petition in a letter (pdf) on Aug. 16 after gathering signatures from 1,718 Oregonians and 53,032 Americans.

  In the petition, the senators expressed concerns over the measurement and reporting of COVID-19 vaccine adverse reactions including fatalities and injuries.

  The lawmakers stated that a whistleblower, under sworn testimony, said the data reported under the CDC’s Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System may have been underreported by a factor of five.

  Regarding the diagnosis of COVID-19 through widely-used PCR tests, the senators said that the CDC and the FDA’s setting of one particular test parameter—the cycle threshold—generated “false positives resulting in inflated numbers of COVID cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.”

  Harvard epidemiologist Dr. Michael Mina told The New York Times in August 2020 that tests with too high of a threshold may detect not just live viruses but also genetic fragments. Mina suggested setting the cut-off at 30 cycles or less.

  Thatcher expressed concern over the cycle threshold of 28 when testing vaccinated individuals. According to the petition, a low cut-off is likely to “eliminate false positive results and thereby reduce the number of vaccine ‘breakthrough’ cases.”

  Thatcher and Linthicum said that they consulted large groups of doctors, epidemiologists, and virologists on the subject of COVID-19 statistical reporting.

  “Additionally, we are profoundly concerned that the scientific literature continues to provide empirical evidence that safe and effective treatments and management strategies for COVID infections exist but are not being made available to Americans most in need,” continued the letter.

  Stand for Health Freedom (SHF), a non-profit organization that helped with the petition, said in a statement that the petition was submitted one month before public release to “protect those involved.”

  SHF also cited a March 2020 study (pdf) alleging that the CDC over-emphasized COVID-19 as the cause of death in compiling its statistics while “circumvent[ing] multiple federal laws” in the process.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/12/2021 – 19:20

• Third Quarter Earnings Season Begins Tomorrow: It Could Be Ugly
  Third Quarter Earnings Season Begins Tomorrow: It Could Be Ugly

  As the following chart from Bloomberg shows, for six consecutive quarters, earnings season provided the antidote to all the stock market ills (if not on fundamentals but because stock stubbornly tracked the relentless growth of the Fed’s balance sheet which rose by $120BN every month like clockwork). But that perfect record is about to get its biggest test yet at a time when uncertainty is swirling among equity investors, and not just because a potentially ugly earnings season is on deck but because the Fed’s liquidity cannon is about to see its first “tapering” since the covid pandemic unleashed trillions and trillions in liquidity.

  

  Looking back, the large and persistent earnings beats over the last 5 quarters…

  

  … prompted record upgrades to forward earnings estimates.

  

  The market has moved higher in lockstep with these upgrades…

  

  … leaving the forward multiple remarkably flat at very elevated levels since May of last year. And as Deutsche Bank’s Binky Chadha warns, “the market is priced for these large beats and upgrades to continue” but can Q3 earnings season deliver?

  

  And so, as jittery investors brace to comb through the corporate tea leaves for clarity on everything from the impact of rising rates and commodity inflation to broken supply chains, setting the stage for a particularly dramatic serving of results, below we take a loot at what Wall Street expects as 3Q earnings kick off tomorrow when JPM reports bright and early.

  Following another huge beat in 2Q, 3Q EPS has risen 3% over the past three months to $49.06 (+27% YoY), down from an eye-popping 94% Y/Y surge in Q2; typically this estimate falls by 4% into the quarter. According to BofA, consensus forecasts imply the 2-year growth rate falling sharply to +16% vs. +27% in 2Q amid supply chain issues and the delta variant-driven slowdown (the just released news about Apple slashing its iPhone production due to chip shortages being the latest case in point).

  In a conspicuous break from the last 4 quarters which saw upgrades, DB notes that Q3 consensus estimates are being downgraded ahead of the earnings season, marking a return to what has been the historical norm. Downgrades have largely been driven by the pandemic-loser group on delta variant concerns, and by insurers following the impacts of hurricane Ida. But even excluding these lumpy impacts, estimates have stayed flat in contrast to the upgrades of recent quarters.

  

  As is typical, the consensus sees a drop in earnings sequentially (-4.5% qoq excluding loan loss provisions)…

  

  … with nearly all sector groups seeing declines. But that’s usually the case and in the end, earnings growth usually comes in positive.

  

  Cutting to the chase, DB notes that amidst a macro backdrop that is a little less supportive than over the last 4 quarters, the bank sees earnings continuing to rise but only modestly so (+1.5% qoq), beating consensus by 6%, far lower than the 14-20% range of the last 5 quarters and closer to the historical average beat of 5%

  Expect no beat this quarter

  In Q2, S&P500 companies delivered another monstrous beat topping consensus by 17%. With the strong beat, 3Q EPS estimates have risen 3% over the past three months, but BofA sees increased headwinds heading into 3Q, primarily driven by supply chain issues, delta-driven slowdown, and continued inflationary pressure.

  

  That said, while there are reasons to be cautious, earnings misses are extremely rare: since 2009, there have been only two quarters (out of 50) when earnings missed consensus (2Q11 & 1Q20). And with consensus expecting a meaningful moderation in the 2-year growth rate to 16% from 27%, BofA’s 3Q EPS estimate is in line with consensus, representing the worst earnings season since COVID and below the historical median beat of 3.5%.

  BofA generally agrees with DB, and expects earnings to come in in-line with consensus and revises its 3Q EPS down by $2 (to $49) and 4Q by $1. But, as has been the case for much of the past year, one of the top questions will be around guidance (which started to soften) and 2022 EPS will be revised lower.

  Another core question: who is best positioned to weather the surging input costs: “What we are going to be laser-focused on in this earnings season is pricing power,” said Giorgio Caputo, senior portfolio manager at J O Hambro Capital Management. “What we’re seeing is that getting the machine back up and running — those who thought it would be an easy quick fix are being disappointed now.”

  Which leads us to the most important variable of Q3 season: profit margins. As we noted at the time, although margins expanded to record highs in 2Q, companies highlighted increasing difficulties passing through cost inflation. Since then, issues have worsened: supply chain news stories increased 74% and freight rates from China rose 20%…

  

  … with record backlogs at the West Coast Ports. In 3Q, we also saw a near-record number of profit warnings stories (third highest since 2011), only after 4Q15 and 1Q19.

  

  In those quarters, earnings beat consensus by 0.6% and 4.9%, respectively, but subsequent quarter earnings were revised down by 9.3% and 2.2% mostly due to supply issues.Incidentally, we predicted that this would happen.

  If MS and BofA are right on slumping consumer demand and margin contraction we should start seeing Q3 earnings warnings in the next 2 weeks.

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 30, 2021

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  To be sure, consumer demand remains robust but soaring inflation poses downside risks. While analysts have baked in margin  contraction this quarter (non-Financials net margins -70bps QoQ), both BofA and Morgan Stanley see big risks to 2022 numbers, where analysts expect record margins, an outcome which is virtually impossible unless all the input cost inflation is passed through to consumers.

  It’s not just broken supply chains: wages are surging too; indeed as BofA writes, “wage inflation is just as big of a headwind (if not
  bigger)” than supply chains. The BEA estimates wages are as much as 40% of total private sector costs. At the same time, slowing China and its property sector issues also pose risks to US multinationals. And while higher oil prices have historically been positive for S&P earnings (every 100bps move up in WTI added 50bps to S&P earnings growth), but Energy companies’ capital discipline could translate to a lower earnings multiplier (i.e. less revenue for energy capex beneficiaries). Soaring gas prices also add pressure to Chemicals and Utilities. In other words, higher oil could be a headwind rather than a tailwind this time.

  Mentions of “inflation” on 2Q earnings calls topped 1Q levels and jumped to a record high, based on BofA’s Predictive Analytics team’s analysis. On a YoY basis, inflation mentions rose more than 900% YoY, in line with the increase we saw last quarter.

  

  Notably, supply chain mentions rose the most among inflation categories tracked in 2Q, more than doubling YoY (along with labor mentions). Since then, supply chain issues have worsened: news stories on “supply chain” increased 74% since the 2Q earnings season according to Bloomberg, and freight rates from China also rose 20% (Exhibit 10)

  

  And yet, amid all these rising margin risks, analysts are expecting margins to hit a new peak in 2022!

  Consistent with recent developments, consensus does point to a 70bps drop in net margins (ex-Fins) to 12.0% in 3Q, which does reflect some conservatism. However, they then expect the margin compression to stop there – with flattish margins in 4Q21, and expanding margins in 2022 to new record highs (above 2018 peaks).

  

  Analysts expect margins to hit new highs in 4 of 10 sectors, excluding Financials (Exhibit 14). BofA disagrees and expects current headwinds to last well into 2022, and sees risk to consensus numbers.

  

  As the bank cautions, “analysts have consistently underestimated margins over the past five quarters, but given the worsened macro environment for corporate profits (more below), we do not expect those big margin beats to repeat in 3Q.”

  And with good reason: the early reporters have shared mixed data at best. So far, 21 companies (primarily “early reporters” with August quarter-end) have reported 3Q results. Early reporters are concentrated in Consumer, Tech and Industrials, but can often give a read on the full quarter’s results: BofA has found a 71% correlation between the proportion of early reporter beats on EPS and sales and the proportion of full-quarter beats on EPS and sales. So far, 67% have beaten on EPS, 76% on sales and 57% on both. This is weaker than last quarter (67%/94%/67%), but still above the historical average (since 2012) of 70%  EPS beats, 63% sales beats and 49% both beats. The median EPS beat so far has been 4.0%.

  

  More ominously, BofA’s 3-month guidance ratio (# of above- vs. below-consensus guidance instances) sharply fell from a record high to 2.6x in September, albeit it remains well above the historical average of 0.8x. The more volatile 1-mo. guidance ratio also fell to 1.2x, representing the lowest level since Jun 2020, as companies warned about rising inflationary pressure. Meanwhile, guidance instances have picked up to the highest level in a decade in September.

  

  But perhaps the most troubling indication of what to expect comes from companies themselves after what BofA notes was peak corporate sentiment. According to BofA’s Predictive Analytics team overall, corporate sentiment dipped from a record high, potentially indicating peak corporate sentiment amid inflation concerns and the Delta variant. Consumer sectors had the weakest sentiment compared to their own history, while Materials and Real Estate had the worst sentiment on an absolute basis.

  

  Similarly, companies’ mentions of business conditions (ratio of mentions of “better” or “stronger” vs. “worse” or “weaker”) indicate slightly weaker business conditions vs. the peak level last quarter. Mentions of optimism also plummeted from record highs in the prior two quarters.

  

  Putting it all together, below is a handy list of what to expect courtesy of Deutsche Bank:

  • The macro backdrop is a little less supportive. After having been strongly positive for over a year, data surprises turned negative in late-July. Earnings estimate revisions have historically been tied to data surprises. Consensus Q3 GDP estimates have also been revised downwards from over 7% at the end of Jul to 5% now. DB economists also cut their Q3 GDP forecast for growth from 8.9% to 4.7% in early September. The sales-weighted G4 manufacturing PMI, a preferred measure of global growth, rose sharply from its trough of 42.4 in Q2 2020 to 59.3 in Q2 2021. In Q3 so far, it has stayed flat (Jul-Aug average of 59.4). The US dollar is also up slightly in Q3 after 4 quarters of declines.
  • Secular growers (MCG+ Tech) earnings likely to flatten at an elevated level. Earnings for MCG+ Tech have been boosted well above trend by a broad cyclical lift as well as from being direct beneficiaries given the realities of the pandemic. The cyclical component which is tied to global growth and the US dollar is likely to stay flat. With re-opening having gathered steam through the quarter, the idiosyncratic pandemic-related benefit should arguably start to wane, but even if the full benefit were to remain intact, it would still point to earnings overall staying largely flat (0.4%). With consensus seeing a drop (-4.5%), DB sees a beat of about 5.2%, a sharp slowdown from the 10-17% beats they posted over the last 5 quarters, but in line with the historical average of 6%. Notably, earnings remaining flat would also mean a modest move back towards their historical trend with the gap shrinking from a record +25% in Q2 to +22% in Q3.
  • Cyclicals earnings almost back to trend. The consensus sees losses for the pandemic losers diminishing in Q3 (-$6.6bn to -$2.4bn) as mobility rose albeit not as quickly as initially expected. Outside of the direct pandemic losers, the rest of the cyclicals in our view should continue to post modest growth (+1.7% qoq sa) as activity levels remain robust at elevated levels. Consensus sees earnings for cyclicals declining modestly (-0.4%), implying a beat of 8%, a sharp slowdown from the 14-38% range seen in the past four quarters, but ahead of the historic average level of 5.2%. If realized, cyclicals earnings would be almost back to their pre-pandemic trend, a strong and fast recovery after being over 70% below in Q2 last year
  • Defensives earnings likely to move back down towards trend. Earnings for the defensives were significantly above trend in Q2 (+7%), as they continued to benefit from a pandemic boost. We see earnings retrace halfway back to trend in Q3 implying a modest  (-1.5% qoq sa) decline, while the consensus sees a larger -6.3% drop, pointing to a potential 5.1% beat in the quarter. If realized, this would be the weakest aggregate beat since the start of the pandemic, which has seen surprises in the 7-18% range, but at about the average level of pre-pandemic beats (historical average of 4.4%).
  • Financials to continue posting outsized beats as benign credit costs remain a tailwind. Banks released large amounts from loan loss reserves in the past two quarters ($13.8bn in Q1 and $9.5bn in Q2), boosting earnings, and that is expected to continue given benign credit conditions. However, the consensus sees banks adding to reserves in Q3 ($3.8bn). Moreover, excluding loan-loss provisions the consensus sees earnings fall to the bottom of their 2013-19 trend channel. Together this points to a massive 29% beat again this quarter, in line with the 13-36% range of the last five quarters and way ahead of the typical +4.2% average.
  • Energy. Oil prices have risen from $69/bbl in Q2 to $73/bbl in Q3 on average. The consensus forecasts Energy sector earnings to grow 22.5% (qoq) in Q3, which is somewhat ahead of what is implied by the increase in oil prices. DB sees lower earnings growth of 12.8% qoq, which could see the sector miss (-8%) in the quarter, in contrast with the solid double digit beats of the past four quarters and a historic average beat of 6.4%. Energy earnings beats historically have tended to be extremely volatile.
  • Overall beats to remain robust but returning towards the historical norm. DB sees earnings for the S&P 500 rising modestly by +0.8% and EPS coming in at $53.6/share in Q3 2021. This compares with the consensus at $49.2/share, or a beat of 9%, significantly lower than the 14-21% range of the last 5 quarters. Excluding the outsized contribution from lumpy loan-loss reserve changes, DB expects a beat of 6.3%, close to the historical average of 5% and compares to the 10-21% range of the last 5 quarters

  In conclusion, and as noted earlier, huge beats and upward revisions kept the forward consensus rising steeply over the last 15 months according to DB’s Chadha. Since then, consensus estimates for 2021 have edged slightly lower over the last few weeks (-0.2%), while 2022 estimates have flat-lined. The 4 quarter ahead growth rate of consensus estimates has now fallen to the steady pre-pandemic average (around 14%). In the absence of upgrades, current forecasts point to the growth rate falling well below (11%) over the next 2-3 quarters. As beats and forward earnings look to be returning to historical norms, will forward valuations follow?

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/12/2021 – 18:55

• It's All Fake: Kamala Harris Used Child Actors Who Had To Audition For Weird NASA Promo
  It’s All Fake: Kamala Harris Used Child Actors Who Had To Audition For Weird NASA Promo

  While President Biden draws ridicule for using a ‘Truman Show‘ fake White House set across from the actual White House…

  Why does Joe Biden feel the need to use a Fake White House set across the street from the actual White House? pic.twitter.com/5p7TLwoPmw

  — Benny (@bennyjohnson) October 6, 2021

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  …Vice President Kamala Harris is earning jeers of her own for using child actors in a recent NASA YouTube video about space exploration.

  Filmed in August while the Taliban was rapidly taking over Afghanistan and closing in on Kabul (and right before the Biden-Harris administration murdered a family of innocent civilians, including seven children), the “Get Curious with Vice President Harris” was tweeted by the VP’s account on October 7 to celebrate World Space Week.

  And it’s a cringe-fest…

  The video portrayed the children as regular kids – however it has been revealed that they were all paid actors who auditioned for the part by submitting a monologue and questions they would ask a world leader, according to the Daily Mail, which notes that the Washington Examiner revealed the production company; ‘Sinking Ship Entertainment’ out of Canada.

  Monterey resident Trevor Bernardino, 13, told KSBW he was stunned when he learned he would be traveling to Washington, DC to take part in the video.    

  ‘Then after that, like a week later my agent called me and was like ‘Hey Trevor you booked it,’ he told the network.

  Trevor was one of five teens who participated in the video for the YouTube original series. He was joined by Derrick Brooks II, another child actor, Emily Kim, likewise a child actor, Zhoriel Tapo, a child actor and aspiring journalist who has interviewed former First Lady Michelle Obama, and Sydney Schmooke. 

  The video was shot at the Naval Observatory, Harris’ residence, from August 11 to August 13. During that time the Taliban were making rapid advances across Afghanistan and were closing in on Kabul during the chaotic U.S. withdrawal. -Daily Mail

  So – the sitting US president is broadcasting from a fake White House, and his Vice President used a foreign production company and child actors for a NASA promo instead of tackling the border crisis.

  The video was mocked by Fox News‘ Tucker Carlson, who called it ‘fake’ and ‘fraudulent.’

  “So for humanitarian reasons we are not going to play that’ll video, but it’s online,” said Carlson. “If you dare, look it up, watch it. Watch it again, watch your own soul die as you do. It’s the fakest thing that’s ever been caught on video but in fact it’s even faker than it looks.”

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/12/2021 – 18:35

• Fed's Quarles To No Longer Chair Committee On Supervision, Setting Stage For Brainard Ascent
  Fed’s Quarles To No Longer Chair Committee On Supervision, Setting Stage For Brainard Ascent

  While Fed watchers are on edge over the fate of Fed vice chair Richard Clarida, and whether the recent revelations about his stock trades will make him the third senior Fed official to step down as a result of his potentially illicit stock trades (as a reminder, he traded out of $1-$5 million in a Pimco bond fund on Feb. 27, 2020, and on the same day bought between $1 and $5 million of the Pimco StocksPlus Fund, one day before an emergency market-moving announcement by Chair Powell), moments ago the Fed announced that Fed Vice Chairman for Supervision Randal Quarles will be removed from his role as the main watchdog of Wall Street banks after his title officially expires Wednesday. The Fed made the announcement in a statement that seeks to answer key questions for banks and Democrats about how the Trump appointee’s era of oversight will end.

  “In light of the expiration of the vice chair’s term, he will no longer chair the committee on supervision and regulation,” the Fed said in a statement. The committee will meet “on an unchaired basis,” and only matters that all the members can agree on will be forwarded to the full board, the statement said.

  Quarles – who also sits on the Fed’s board of governors – will cease to be chairman of the central bank’s supervisory committee, leaving the panel without a leader. That means Lael Brainard, the board’s lone Democrat who has more seniority at the Fed, and Governor Michelle Bowman will equally share responsibilities with Quarles. Joe Biden has yet to nominate a candidate for the supervision role, which would also be subject to Senate confirmation.

  Quarles hasn’t said how long he will stay at the Fed as governor but it is likely he will step down shortly.

  As Bloomberg previously reported, Biden’s advisers are considering a recommendation that the president renominate Chair Jerome Powell and appoint Brainard as the vice chair for supervision. The Fed’s bank-supervision chief is the regulator with the longest reach into Wall Street banking. The decision on the vice chair is entangled with Biden’s decision about whether to nominate Powell for a second term. 

  With Quarles imminent departure, yet another hawk is set to part ways with the Fed. If he is replaced by Brainard it means that the balance of power will tip further toward the Doves.

  

   

   

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/12/2021 – 18:30

• Southwest To Comply With Biden Vaccine Order, Ignore Texas Ban
  Southwest To Comply With Biden Vaccine Order, Ignore Texas Ban

  Dallas-based Southwest Airlines will ignore a Texas Executive Order prohibiting any entity from imposing Covid-19 vaccine mandates on employees or customers.

  Instead, the beleaguered airline will comply with a yet-to-be issued Biden federal mandate which requires that government employees and contractors get vaccinated, according to CEO Gary Kelly in a Tuesday interview with CNBC.

  “I’ve never been in favor of corporations imposing that kind of a mandate. I’m not in favor that. Never have been,” Kelly told “Squawk on the Street,” adding “But the executive order from President Biden mandates that all federal employees and then all federal contractors, which covers all the major airlines, have to have a [vaccine] mandate … in place by December the 8th, so we’re working through that.”

  Southwest CEO blames Biden for vax mandate: “I’m not in favor of that, never have been. But the executive order from President Biden mandates that all federal employees, and then all federal contractors, which covers all the major airlines, have to have a mandate.” pic.twitter.com/TQs21CEMoG

  — Tom Elliott (@tomselliott) October 12, 2021

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  In addition to federal workers and contractors, President Biden announced a mandate last month which requires companies with 100 or more employees to ensure that their workforce is vaccinated or tested regularly. The Labor Department has yet to release details of the emergency rule, however Biden encouraged companies to ‘act now’ and not to wait for the requirement to go into effect.

  Another lie. There is no federal vaccine mandate. There’s no executive order, no federal regulation. It was a press release. https://t.co/6Uub9qDSMO

  — Sean Davis (@seanmdav) October 12, 2021

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  In response, Texas Governor Greg Abbott issued an executive order on Monday which prohibits any entity – including private businesses, from imposing vaccine mandates on either employees or customers.

  “The COVID-19 vaccine is safe, effective, and our best defense against the virus, but should remain voluntary and never forced,” said Abbott in a statement. The rule follows several executive orders Abbott issued over the summer banning local governments and school districts from mask or vaccination mandates – with $1,000 fines for those who fail to comply.

  Last week, Southwest announced that its 56,000-person workforce would need to be fully vaccinated with the Covid-19 jab by Dec. 8 in order to remain employed – an announcement which came days after other carriers (including American Airlines, Alaska Airlines and JetBlue Airways) announced similar measures, according to CNBC.

  Doubling down on the airline’s claim that widespread flight disruptions over the past four days weren’t related to an employee protest over the mandate, Kelly blamed “absenteeism” – which, we’re quite frankly

  BREAKING: Southwest CEO denies massive flight cancellations were related to vaccine mandates, blames ‘absenteeism’ pic.twitter.com/xl5MB6Iq8O

  — Jack Posobiec 🇺🇸 (@JackPosobiec) October 12, 2021

  We can’t believe CNBC didn’t ask Kelly, if that’s true, where this flag came from.

  This photo was just sent to me of a grounded Southwest plane flying a Gadsden flag out of the cockpit. The Hero Pilots at Southwest and other Airlines deserve our support. True patriots worthy of the American Freedom Fighter tradition.
  Don’t Tread On Me.
  God Bless Them 🇺🇸✈️🙏🏻 pic.twitter.com/tAo9pT4Q60

  — Benny (@bennyjohnson) October 11, 2021

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  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/12/2021 – 18:15

• America's Bottom 50% Have Nowhere To Go But Down
  America’s Bottom 50% Have Nowhere To Go But Down

  Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

  One might anticipate that the bottom 50%’s meager share of the nation’s exploding wealth would have increased as smartly as the wealth of the billionaires, but alas, no.

  

  America’s economy has changed in ways few of the winners seem to notice, as they’re too busy cheerleading their own brilliance and success. In the view of the winners, who just so happen to occupy all the seats at the media-punditry-Federal Reserve, etc. table–the rising tide of stock, bond and real estate bubbles are raising all boats. What’s left unsaid is except for the 50% of boats with gaping holes below the waterline, i.e. stagnant wages and a fast-rising cost of living.

  The truth the self-satisfied winners don’t include in their self-congratulatory rah-rah is there’s no place for the bottom 50% of American households to go but down. All the winnings flow to those who already owned assets back when they were affordable– the already-wealthy–whose wealth has soared as assets have shot to the moon while the the burdens of inflation and debt service hit the bottom 50% the hardest.

  Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is whining that inflation isn’t high enough yet for their refined tastes. Boo-hoo, how sad for the Fed–inflation isn’t yet high enough. Oh wait–didn’t they each mint millions by front-running their own policies? No wonder they’re not worried about inflation.

  The reality few acknowledge is that globalization and financialization have stripped the American economy of low-skilled jobs that don’t demand much of the employee. The reality is that a great many people don’t have what it takes to learn high-level skills and work at a demanding pace under constant pressure–the description of the average job in America.

  There were once millions of low-skill, low-pay jobs for people who for whatever mix of reasons were unable to muster the wherewithal to fulfill the fantasy of working extra hard, going to night school, soaking up high-level skills, moving quickly up the ladder to higher pay, buying the starter home and then moving up the food chain to middle class security from there.

  The cost of living was low enough that those working these low-skill, low-pay jobs could still have an independent life. There were still low-cost rentals, often derided by the wealthy, in nooks and crannies of even the costliest cities. (I once lived in a room stuffed with old tax records in a poolside shack in an upscale neighborhood. The room had been cleared for a single bed and a path to the decrepit bathroom. Its most important attribute was that I could afford it on my low earnings.)

  Affordable housing has vanished, eliminated by the financialization of America’s economy. Once landlords pay double the price for the property, rents have to double to pay their higher expenses. The apartment didn’t double in size or amenities–the rent doubled without any increase in utility to the renter. You get nothing more for double the price–nice.

  

  Yes, people could make better choices, and some do. The point here is the game is rigged against those in the lower tier of the economy who can no longer afford a house or other stake in the only winning game in town–speculative asset bubbles. Go ahead and work a second job and go to night school–you’ll still be left behind the already-rich.

  Globalization opened every job in America to global competition via offshoring or the influx of undocumented workers so desperate to support their families back home that no pay was too low and no working condition too wretched to refuse.

  Many overindulged pundits who never worked an honest day in their lives sneer about burger flippers without realizing how hard those burger flippers have to work. I doubt the well-dressed pundits, snobbish about their university degrees and general brilliance, could manage to work a single day in a demanding fast-food job.

  As the price of housing and other assets have soared, enriching the already rich, they’re out of reach for the bottom 50% who struggle to pay their bills as wages have stagnated and the costs of essentials have skyrocketed.

  

  The rising cost of parking tickets, junk fees, user fees, utilities and food don’t impact the well-paid top 5% technocrat class, whose stake in the Everything Bubble keeps expanding by tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars. But for the bottom 50%, those incremental increases are, when added to higher rents, absolutely crushing.

  As for getting high-quality healthcare that includes mental health support–those are reserved for the rich. But no worries, self-medication is always a “choice.”

  Getting a boost in pay from $12 an hour to $15 an hour is welcome, but that doesn’t put the worker any closer to affording a house or equivalent stake in the Everything Bubble.

  The new feudalism is masked by the glossy SillyCon Valley PR of a gig economy where (per the PR fantasy) bright, shiny and totally independent workers freely choose to serve the winners in the rigged sweepstakes for low pay and zero benefits.

  In the SillyCon Valley PR, serfs freely choose to serve their noble masters for nothing but survival because they love the “freedom” and “choice” of kissing the nobility’s plump derrieres. (After all, there were “choices” even back in the good old days of feudalism–one could join the brigands in the forest, or enlist in a poorly paid mercenary army where the odds of dying were high–you know, “choices” of “gigs.”)

  One might anticipate that the bottom 50%’s meager share of the nation’s exploding wealth would have increased as smartly as the wealth of the billionaires, but alas, no–the bottom 50%’s share of stocks (equities) actually plummeted in the the glorious decades of Federal Reserve free money for financiers, stock buy-backs and asset bubbles.

  

  All this suits the billionaires and those collecting the crumbs of the Everything Bubble just fine. So what if the bottom 50% have nowhere to go but down? There’s plenty of room in the homeless encampment for another broken down station wagon or an old camper. There’s lots of “choices.”

  And no consequences for the winners, of course, because The Fed has our backs.

  *  *  *

  If you found value in this content, please join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.

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  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/12/2021 – 18:05

• California Bans Small Off-Road Gas Engines, Including Lawnmowers And Chainsaws
  California Bans Small Off-Road Gas Engines, Including Lawnmowers And Chainsaws

  Authored by Christopher Burroughs via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  

  California moved one step closer to ending reliance on fossil fuels as Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom signed a new bill into law on Sunday to ban all off-road gas-powered engines.

  The new law requires the state to apply the new rule by Jan. 1, 2024, or as soon as regulators determine is “feasible,” whichever date is later, according to the bill.

  The bill served as one step in the governor’s California Comeback Plan that includes a strong focus on climate change initiatives.

  “In a time when the state and country are more divided than ever, this legislative session reminds us what we can accomplish together. I am thankful for our partners in the state Legislature who furthered our efforts to tackle the state’s most persistent challenges – together, we took action to address those challenges head-on, implementing historic legislation and the California Comeback Plan to hit fast forward on our state’s recovery,” Newsom said in a press release on Saturday.

  “What we’re doing here in California is unprecedented in both nature and scale. We will come back from this pandemic stronger than ever before,” he added.

  A ‘Massive Change’ Measure

  Not all Californians approve of the new legislation. Andrew Bray, vice president of government relations for the National Association of Landscape Professionals, argued the zero-emission commercial-grade equipment landscapers will be far too expensive.

  “These companies are going to have to completely retrofit their entire workshops to be able to handle this massive change in voltage so they’re going to be charged every day,” Bray said, according to a Los Angeles Times report Saturday.

  The change could strongly impact small businesses in landscaping and related industries. In addition to increased costs, the change could result in other unexpected problems, such as the need to carry charged batteries.

  “Bray said a three-person landscaping crew will need to carry 30 to 40 fully charged batteries to power its equipment during a full day’s work,” according to the report.

  A Small Business Disaster

  The new law is expected to affect nearly 50,000 small businesses, according to The Washington Examiner. It noted that California’s budget includes $30 million for professional landscapers and gardeners to quit using gas-powered equipment, but that it would not be enough to cover the full costs.

  The change is also not the only recent climate change announcement regarding gas-powered engines by Newsom. Last month, the governor signed an executive order to ban gas-powered and diesel cars by 2035.

  “This is the most impactful step our state can take to fight climate change,” Newsom said in the press release announcing the order. “For too many decades, we have allowed cars to pollute the air that our children and families breathe.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/12/2021 – 17:40

• Vaccine Effectiveness In New York Dropped As Delta Variant Surged During Summer, Study Shows
  Vaccine Effectiveness In New York Dropped As Delta Variant Surged During Summer, Study Shows

  Authored by Ivan Pentchoukov via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  

  The effectiveness of the three COVID-19 vaccines dropped significantly over the course of 10 weeks this summer when the Delta variant exploded to become the dominant strain of the CCP virus, according to a preprint study (pdf).

  Scientists from the New York State Department of Health and the University at Albany School of Public Health studied the vaccination, testing, and hospitalization records of more than 8.8 million New Yorkers for the period between May 1 and July 10 this summer.

  The analysis found that effectiveness dropped the sharpest for those under the age of 50.

  The greatest decline in vaccine effectiveness occurred for the Pfizer-BioNTech shot, with a decline of 24.6 percent for people aged 49 and under, 19.1 percent for those 50 to 64 years old, and 14.1 percent for people 65 and over.

  Effectiveness for the Moderna and Janssen vaccines likewise dropped, although less so than the Pfizer shot. Moderna effectiveness dropped 18 percent, 11.6 percent, and 9.0 percent for those under 50, those aged 50 to 64. and people 65 and over respectively. The effectiveness of the Janssen shot dropped 19.2 percent, 10.8 percent, and 10.9 percent for the same respective age groups.

  The drop in effectiveness for all three vaccines occurred as the Delta variant of the CCP virus grew in prevalence from 1.8 percent on May 1 to over 85 percent on July 10. The CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus, commonly known as the novel coronavirus, is the pathogen that causes COVID-19.

  “Our results provide evidence of immunity loss associated with time since completion of vaccination,” the study says.  “Irrespective of the cause or propensity for continued declines in [vaccine effectiveness], our findings have important implications for national vaccine policy. Pfizer-BioNTech booster doses have been demonstrated safe and to increase short-term protection against the Delta variant. Our findings align with the CDC recommendation for Pfizer-BioNTech boosters in persons [over] 65 years [old].”

  The reduction in effectiveness recorded in New York, while significant, is far less than that recorded in Israel. The New York study’s authors say this “may be due to earlier vaccination, increased sensitivity definitions, or other methodological differences.”

  All three vaccines remained effective at preventing COVID-19 related hospitalizations, with a small reduction effectiveness show for people 65 and over who took the Pfizer vaccine.

  “This latest study conducted by our renowned scientists here at DOH is the largest to examine in-depth changes in vaccine effectiveness over time broken down by all three COVID-19 vaccines types currently authorized for use in the United States,” said senior author and New York Health Commissioner Howard Zucker in a statement.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/12/2021 – 17:15

• Private-Jet Demand Soars As Planemakers Enter Boon Times 
  Private-Jet Demand Soars As Planemakers Enter Boon Times 

  The virus pandemic has increased demand for private jets and is expected to continue with the lack of commercial flight options. 

  Kenn Ricci, the chairman of Flexjet, told Bloomberg his private-plane business is soaring like never before as he scrambles to find planes to expand his fleet. The company provides fractional ownership for private jets, aircraft leasing, and jet card services for people who wish to avoid busy airports and travel in comfort. 

  

  Ricci said the “used private jet market has been picked clean,” and ordering new planes from aircraft manufacturers takes longer than usual. He said 65 aircraft had been ordered to expand Flexjet’s fleet by 40% next year. 

  Flexjet demand has been off the charts since the pandemic and will continue through 2022 as the company had to suspend sales of blocks of flight hours. The influx of new customers means Flexjet’s annual growth has surged 30% this year. Ricci believes new customers who began using their service during the virus pandemic will stick around because of convenience.

  Even though corporate travel remains subdued – private aircraft flights are at the highest since 2008. 

  The demand for new private jets means boon times for planemakers, including Bombardier Inc., Textron Inc., Embraer SA, and General Dynamics Inc.’s Gulfstream unit. Those companies cut deliveries early in the pandemic but are now boosting production and raising prices. 

  Ron Draper, CEO of Textron Aviation, the maker of Cessna jets, said the influx of new customers comes as a surprise as many discover that avoiding commercial air travel is essential in a post-COVID world. 

  Take, for example, the thousand-plus flights Southwest Airlines canceled in the last few days stranded passengers across the county because of an alleged sickout by pilots over vaccine mandates. If anyone has been in this position, flight cancellations and delays are a headache.

  Avoid commercial air travel. Take a private jet appears to be a hot trend among those with the financial ease to do so. 

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/12/2021 – 16:50