- What 'The Expanse' Tells Us About The COVID-19 Pandemic And Gain-Of-Function Research
What ‘The Expanse’ Tells Us About The COVID-19 Pandemic And Gain-Of-Function Research
Submitted by Harvard to the Big House
An accessible YouTube summary of much of the report below below by a Professor of Neurobiology at the University of Pittsburgh’s Medical School is available here.
“You can tell you’ve found a really interesting question when no one wants you to answer it.”
Over the past several months thousands of humans have lost their lives since COVID-19 kicked-off its killing spree in Wuhan, and barring an absolute miracle millions more all across the planet will join them in the months to come. Comparisons to the pandemic caused by the Spanish Flu earlier in the twentieth century abound, however one thing is clear: Whether due to globalization or to internal differences between the viruses, while the Spanish Flu was a slow-moving miasma that took years to unfurl across the globe, the Wuhan strain of coronavirus, COVID-19, has blanketed the entire planet in just a few months.
Factories all across the planet have ground to a halt, stores are shuttered, tens of millions are quarantined across multiple continents, and supply chains are disintegrating.
And oddly, even though there is nothing even beginning to approach conclusive evidence that COVID-19 was a naturally emergent strain that made its way out of an intermediate animal host and into humans, the general consensus in the media and the public seems to be that exploring its origins is something only done by people who’ve yet to buy that the Earth is in fact round and that we actually did land on the moon. And everyone seems to be okay with the fact that the scientists crowing the loudest about a natural origin, are the ones directly involved with the type of research that likely spawned this virus: Gain-of-function, or “dual-use” research that meant to push Nature past her limits, so that humans can harness her to create monsters that would never occur naturally.
Why the concentrated push to marginalize anyone asking for conclusive proof about where COVID-19 came from? Who benefits?
“We modified our science team to remove ethical restraints.”
Back in 1977 a very peculiar disease began to sweep across Russia, and once scientists had isolated it they discovered it was a rather unique strain of the H1N1 Swine Flu. In the years that followed genetic analysis looking to determine where it might’ve come from found something rather odd: It was very similar to strains of H1N1 that hadn’t been in circulation for decades, and seemed to be the product of “sequential passage in an animal reservoir” which was determined by its vast genetic distance from any other present strain of flu, just like COVID-19 which also appears so distant from any related coronavirus that it’s been placed in its own clade, an isolated branch way out on its own in the viral family tree – meaning it’s the lone example of its kind, and doesn’t clump together with all the other known coronaviruses.
At the time, the Soviet Union was employing tens of thousands of scientists designing every possible flavor of biological weapon, a rabidly immoral weapons program with a spotty safety record – pathogens were known to leak out of Soviet labs almost regularly. Which has happened at plenty of biological weapons labs since, but especially China’s, which have leaked the SARS virus four times just in recent years. And Soviet scientists were reported to bring dead research animals home for dinner, meat wasn’t exactly readily available in the USSR at that time, which parallels the reports of scientists in Wuhan smuggling dead lab animals out to sell for a few extra bucks on the street.
Earlier in the 70’s prior to the leak, “the swine flu scare… [had] prompted the international community to reexamine their stocks of the latest previously circulating H1N1 strains to attempt to develop a vaccine,” which was seen to have increased the odds that someone, somewhere would make a mistake and leak an altered strain of the flu out of their lab. This increased pace of research mirrors recent times, when scientists have been investigating and trying to understand the supposedly impending threat posed by coronaviruses for years, capturing as many unique strains from the wild as they could, and mixing and matching their genomes in the lab.
And so increased research into the H1N1 Swine Flu back in the 70’s eventually increased the odds that a mistake would happen enough that one did, and a leak occurred. Just as our current pandemic was preceded not only by years of research into coronaviruses everywhere from UNC to the Wuhan Institute of Virology’s Disease Engineering Technical Research Center, and have been accelerated by a massive international conference meant to study a potential pandemic caused by a hyper-virulent strain of coronavirus, Johns Hopkins’ Event 201. This was funded primarily by the World Economic Forum as well as the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, and notably occurred in October 2019, just weeks before the start of this outbreak of COVID-19.
If leading up to 1977, the fact that increased research into strains of the flu were seen to increase the odds that an accidental leak would occur, why isn’t the same logic being applied to our pandemic today? Why is almost everyone today assuming that the increased pace of research means scientists in fact anticipated this outbreak instead of causing it?
Wouldn’t an increased pace of research also increase the odds that a leak of a lab-modified coronavirus would occur just like an increased pace of research precipitated the leak of the H1N1 Swine Flu back then?
“You give a monkey a stick, inevitably he’ll beat another monkey to death with it”
Scientists have been directly altering and modifying viral genomes for at least the past twenty years, doing everything from building complete viruses from scratch, to tweaking them and then passing them through series of animal hosts to artificially speed selection and evolution along so that they’re able have as many different strains of virus with as many novel features as possible to tinker with.
However most of this work didn’t really raise too many eyebrows, until about ten years ago when scientists in Stony Brook, NY – not coincidentally also the first place to build a DNA-virus from scratch – took the H5N1 Bird Flu, tweaked its genome in two places, and then passed it through a series of ferret hosts in the lab until it became airborne. This sort of research, a minor alteration and then passage through ferrets, did two things: Resulted in a virus that would look natural and wouldn’t appear to have been directly genetically altered, and also created a virus that was way out on its own branch of the viral family tree since those sequential passages added generations far faster than they’d naturally occur in the wild. If that sounds familiar, maybe that’s because those traits are also exactly what’s found with COVID-19.
And as far back as 2015, Chinese labs were reported to have been involved with dual-use gain-of-function research, swapping around viral genomes in the lab to try to create the most virulent strain possible. Additionally, studies examining COVID-19’s infectivity in ferrets found that it spreads readily among them, and also appears airborne in that animal model, lending support to the idea that ferrets were used for serial passage. Further support for possibility that serial passage through lab animals played a role in the creation of COVID-19 comes from an April 2020 pre-print, which found that it binds with ferrets cells more tightly than any other species except the tree shrew, which only scored about 2% higher. Tree shrews have also been used for serial viral passage, and were promoted in a 2018 paper out of China as a preferable host for laboratory serial passage since they’re cheaper, smaller, easier to handle, and closer to humans evolutionarily and physiologically than ferrets. Pangolins however, formed a much weaker bond than either, and were clustered way down on the list along with a handful of other much more unlikely intermediate animal hosts.
Quite curiously, one of the scientists supporting this troubling research in an article that noted the virus “could change history if it was ever set free” appeared on Joe Rogan’s podcast in 2020 a few weeks into the current pandemic, claiming that COVID-19 was definitely natural and making no mention of this animal-based dual-use gain-of-function research at all. Odd, right? It’s almost like Michael Osterholm, whose entire career rests on advancing gain-of-function of research, might want to whitewash what’s really going on? Did that sunshine tickle when it was being blown up your ass, Joe?
Osterholm failed to tell the story of this genetically modified H5N1 Bird Flu, which was turned into a virus that “could make the deadly 1918 pandemic look like a pesky cold.” This result was so troubling that the NIH, which had funded the research, tried to make sure that the it would only be published after enough details were taken out to make replication of the experiment tough to perform. However one of the virologists involved in the research thought these restrictions were a bit silly, since the gist of the experiment was enough to allow anyone with enough money to replicate them without a problem. Especially researchers who were already familiar with manipulating bat coronaviruses, two of whom learned how to do exactly that at UNC in 2015 before returning to Wuhan to continue their work.
A few years later the NIH would ban this dual-use “gain-of-function” research, a ban that would remain in place from 2014 until 2017, when it was lifted. And what was the reasoning behind lifting the ban? To allow for research on flu viruses, as well as SARS and MERS – coronaviruses just like our new friend, COVID-19. And so hundreds of millions of dollars of funding poured into research on these viruses, supposedly with oversight meant to reduce “the potential to create, transfer, or use an enhanced potential pandemic pathogen.”
Turns out, that oversight might not have worked out too well, witnessed by the thousands who have already died from COVID-19.
“But it is only a machine. It doesn’t think. It follows instructions. If we learn how to alter that programming, then we become the architects of that change.”
And so since 2017 the floodgates have been opened, and money has poured in to fund gain-of-function research on coronaviruses, and they’ve been seen as everything as as potential base to create an HIV-vaccine from, to being able to help scientists in their mission to create a universal vaccine against the flu and common cold. Unsurprisingly, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, which helped bankroll Event 201, has also poured millions and millions of dollars into the search for a vaccine against HIV, much of which is centered around harnessing coronaviruses.
Gate’s previous forays into vaccination programs haven’t always gone so well, in 2009 a Gates-sponsored HPV vaccine from Merck caused severe side effects among hundreds of the girls it was administered to, ultimately killing seven of them. In addition to the faulty science behind this vaccine program, was evidence that the majority of patients had no idea what they were signing up for, but were pushed through into treatment anyways. More unethical behavior was reported in the Gates-funded MenAfriVac campaign in Chad, which between 50 and 500 children vaccinated for meningitis were reported to develop paralysis, leading a South African newspaper to announce that “we are guinea pigs for the drug-makers.” And there are a scattershot of other accounts covering possible malfeasance by Gates-funded vaccination programs all across the globe. So not that Bill Gates is personally punching little kids in the face, but that his well-meaning funding may end up in a lot of the wrong places in the blind pursuit for results, providing financing for very shady and entirely unethical practices.
Pointing out the funding from their foundation isn’t meant to demonize the Gates family, only to begin to build the idea that accountability does’t lie with the scientists in Wuhan alone, or the Chinese Communist Party for trying to cover-up the beginning of the pandemic. And to point out that nothing about being a computer scientist or a businessman has anything to do with public health policy, or the scientific and social implications around gain-of-function research. Why the NIH allowed this really obvious Pandora’s Box to be reopened in the first place deserves to be answered, and the organizations funding this research should carry much of the blame as well.
Bill Gates might want to be an effective philanthropist really bad, and he may have been amazing at designing computer software and undercutting his competition – however that doesn’t a philanthropist make. After all, beyond the questionable tactics practiced by many of the vaccination programs he’s funded, his very well-intentioned attempt to save lives by providing insecticidal mosquito-nets was ultimately destructive: many of the villagers provided with the mosquito-nets decided they were better used as fishing-nets, resulting in food shortages due to over-fishing from the fact the nets smaller weave caught far too many juvenile fish, undercutting population growth.
Seemed like a good idea at the time, right?
“Distributed responsibility is the problem. One person gives the order, another carries it out. One can say they didn’t pull the trigger, the other that they were just doing what they were told, and everyone lets themselves off the hook.”
Far more sinister than the Gates Foundation funding dual-use gain-of-function research is the involvement of scientists hoping exclusively to bankroll their own companies through this kind of work.
While The Expanse had Jules-Pierre Mao, a scientist-CEO who used his private company to hybridize the protomolecule – a mysterious apparently alien substance that seems to have a mind of its own – with humans to create unstoppable biological weapons, today we have Peter Daszak. His company, EcoHealth Alliance, which is a non-profit that depends largely on multi-million dollar government grants to function, has been partnering with Chinese researcher for years in an attempt to secure funding for more and more research into coronaviruses. At least they’re not really even pretending to be philanthropic.
And in one of the more transparent attempts at blatant PR-spin, Daszak was featured alongside one of the researchers who learned how to create hyper-virulent bat coronaviruses at UNC back in 2015, Zhengli Shi. Their article insists we should take Zhengli at her word when she claims to have not found a match after she checked COVID-19’s genome against everything in her lab. As if someone responsible for releasing the most virulent pathogen to hit humanity in modern history, one that’s already killed thousands and is projected to kill millions and millions more all across the globe, would simply fess-up to it, torpedoing her career and the years of research performed by her and her colleagues? And possibly opening all of them up to legal and other repercussions?
If you still aren’t sure whether the scientists involved with kind of research are being forthright, there’s Dr. Ralph Baric. It was in his lab at UNC that a hyper-virulent bat Franken-virus was created by splicing a new protein-spike on an existing coronavirus, creating a monster so vicious that a virologist with the Louis Pasteur Institute of Paris warned: “If the [new] virus escaped, nobody could predict the trajectory.” It should also be noted that several years prior to tinkering directly with bat coronavirus spike-proteins, Baric orchestrated research that involved isolating a coronavirus from civets and then passing it through mammalian ACE2 receptor cells that were grown in the lab from kidney and brain samples – serial passage through host cell lines instead of entire hosts, which imparted a strong affinity for ACE2, and presumably created an airborne strain of coronavirus. And if cells derived from kidneys and brains were used for the serial passage development of COVID-19, that might help explain its affinity for attacking the kidneys and brains of its human hosts.
So if he was being honest, you might expect him to warn the public about the lethal potential coronaviruses pose during our current outbreak. However, when he was asked if the public should be worried about COVID-19 he said that people should be more worried about the seasonal flu. Pretty bizarre statement from a scientist who knew full well how dangerous coronaviruses could be, especially given the fact that not only was Zhengli Shi working in his lab on that project in 2015, but Xing-Yi Ge was too. Both of whom returned to Wuhan where they’ve continued their work for years.
Xing-Yi Ge is especially notable since in 2013 he became the very first scientist to isolate a bat coronavirus from nature that uses the ACE2 receptor, which is found in human, tree shrew, and ferret lungs and allows coronaviruses to become airborne. And as you might have learned by now, that’s the exact receptor used by COVID-19 to enter human cells – if anyone would know how to finagle that part of the coronavirus genome, it’d be him. So both Xing-Yi Ge and Zhengli Shi were part of the research team that created this hybridized hyper-virulent bat coronavirus under Baric, who’s actively downplayed the risk posed by COVID-19, and then returned to work in Wuhan, where funding provided in part by Daszak’s company allowed them to continue their work on coronaviruses with plenty of research to cut-and-paste into their work at the Wuhan Institute of Virology’s Disease Engineering Technical Research Center.
And as Dr. Ian Malcolm puts it in Jurassic Park, it is never a good idea to futz around with science and research when you don’t fully understand it, nor its possible implications.
However it wasn’t just Daszak funding their work, Zhengli also secured millions of dollars in grant money from various American institutions including our Department of Defense as well as the U.S. Biological Defense Research Directorate, and millions more from other foreign governments.
So although the Chinese Communist Party deserves its share of the blame for attempting to cover the outbreak up, arresting the heroic scientists trying to warn us and issuing gag-orders and the destruction of evidence, this research likely wouldn’t have occurred at all if the NIH hadn’t lifted the ban on gain-of-function research in the first place. And it was funded directly by American tax dollars, by government officials willing to let others play god at their behest.
But now that the virus is out of the lab, are the private entities responsible for its creation going to bear any of the blame at all? Or will America and China continue to point fingers at each other until the worst happens?
“Mars will accuse Earth of using a bio-weapon. Earth will claim it was Mars. The Belt will blame the other two. It’s a good way to start a war and cover it up.”
One last spoiler warning… okay, so in The Expanse the central plot device pushing things forward is the discovery of a mysterious substance dubbed the protomolecule, which seems to have a mind of its own and seek out radiation as sustenance before then beginning “the Work,” a mysterious intergalactic goal that isn’t revealed until later seasons.
And its not individual nations who first attempt to harness the protomolecule, but their Peter Daszak, the aforementioned scientist and CEO named Jules-Pierre Mao, who attempts to weave it into the genomes of immuno-compromised children to create hybridized super-soldiers. Not for his own private army, but as a game-changing bio-weapon he’ll sell to whichever government is willing to pay the most for it. So in The Expanse, it takes amoral scientists as well as the collusion of officials affiliated with both governments for this research to happen and be hidden, and when these Hybrids are eventually dropped between both armies the carnage is immense.
Luckily, we haven’t gotten that far on earth yet, but the rhetoric between America and China has been heading in that direction – it’s been growing increasingly hostile as each blames the other for starting the pandemic and covering it up, with China even going so far as to threaten to cut off our supply of antibiotics and other life-saving medical goods. Meanwhile Daszak, Baric, Zhengli, and others sit back counting their lucky stars and their money, since both governments and the public at large seem to have bought their story that there’s no way this virus leaked out of one of their labs, and every government on earth now wants to harness their research to help create vaccines and treatments.
And these researchers have been assisted by scientifically spurious and journalistically vacuous articles which mindlessly regurgitate claims from the Chinese government, and its scientific propaganda arm, the WHO, about how bad the outbreak was in the past and how contained it is now. As the Chinese government arrested whistle-blowers and sent agents out into the street in bio-hazard gear while carrying automatic weapons to detain anyone suspected of breaking quarantine, while literally welding apartments buildings shut, the American media fawned over China’s “decisive and heroic” actions.
Please take a moment to consider the fact that almost everyone reading the news to you on television was selected due to their connections or how photogenic they are, not because of any actual journalistic chops or ability to think critically.
So as two superpowers are pushed closer and closer to conflict, the research that’s almost certainly the source of COVID-19 not only continues unabated, but if anything talk of more funding to stop this sort of supposedly natural pandemic from happening again is pouring into the pockets of the people who, if they weren’t directly responsible, should certainly have been at the forefront of warning the world about the risks posed by lab-altered coronaviruses, and been disclosing the existence of this sort of research in the first place.
Oddly, each and everyone one of them is pretending that viral dual-use gain-of-function research has never occurred at all. Or not so oddly, when you stop and think about how much they have to lose if their role in this pandemic is revealed.
“The hardest part of this game is figuring out who the enemy really is.”
Other than the fact it doesn’t bear the direct marks of genetic tampering, just like the engineered hyper-virulent H5N1 Bird Flu, there’s literally nothing natural about COVID-19’s behavior or clinical presentation. And hauntingly, peer-reviewed research has noted that a crucial region of its genome “may provide a gain-of-function… for efficient spreading in the human population.”
Not only is it so distant from any other coronavirus that it forms its own clade, but there isn’t even a natural path for it to have emerged through – assertions about pangolins have always been dubious at best, but were even further debunked when analysis of COVID-19’s genome at the regions that most accurately show heritage made it “very unlikely” that pangolins had ever been involved at all.
Beyond that is the fact that its affinity for the ACE2 receptor is somewhere between 10 and 20 times higher than SARS, and it also creates viral loads thousands of times higher than SARS. These two characteristics point towards COVID-19 using antibody-dependent enhancement, or ADE, to enter human cells. This is when the virus is able to hijack white blood cells to more easily enter into the rest of our body’s cells, allowing it to seep deep into its hosts’ nervous systems, creating permanent neurological damage in the hosts it doesn’t kill outright. ADE could also explain why between 5% and 10% of once “recovered” patients in Wuhan have been showing up with fresh infections, since that phenomenon allows a virus to hijack the antibodies created by a previous infection to re-attack an old host. And curiously Zhengli Shi, of UNC and Wuhan fame, co-authored a 2019 paper which used inert viral shells to figure out exactly how SARS, with its affinity to the ACE2 receptor just like COVID-19, was able to harness ADE to hijack white blood cells for enhanced cell entry. A gain-of-function extension of this research would be exactly the kind of experiment that could’ve given birth to COVID-19, especially considering that 2019 paper managed to fine-tune the exact concentration of antibodies that would best facilitate ADE.
Both HIV and Dengue Fever use antibody-dependent enhancement to boost their virulence, however its generally a phenomenon that takes a long time to occur when it happens in nature. However COVID-19 looks like it may have had its ADE jacked into hyper-drive as it was passed between a series of animal hosts, since it has the aforementioned much stronger ability to bind to host cells and creates viral loads orders of magnitude higher, and also appears to immediately to be able to enter its hosts nervous systems, killing many of its victims by attacking the region of the brain that controls breathing, drastically lowering white blood cell counts early on in infections, and apparently re-infecting individuals who had already appeared to clear their infection.
Further increasing the possibility that COVID-19’s unique clinical presentation may be due to its ADE being juiced by laboratory engineering are the observations from an ER doctor who’s stated that I have seen things that I have never seen before… I have witnessed medical phenomenon that just don’t make sense in the context of treating a disease that is supposed to be viral pneumonia. In an interview with Medscape, Dr. Cameron Kyle-Sidell went on to say that the closest thing to the symptoms he was witnessing in his emergency room.
Nothing about COVID-19’s clinical presentation is typical, including the fact that in many patients the first sign of infection seems to be losing your senses of smell and taste without any other symptoms, something no other virus on earth is known to do to otherwise asymptomatic patients – but which could possibly be due to artificially enhanced ADE immediately gaining entry into those nerve cells and frying them. Further increasing the possibility that COVID-19’s unique clinical presentation may be due to its ADE being juiced by laboratory engineering, are the observations from an ER doctor who’s stated that “I have seen things that I have never seen before… I have witnessed medical phenomenon that just don’t make sense in the context of treating a disease that is supposed to be viral pneumonia.” In an interview with Medscape, Dr. Cameron Kyle-Sidell went on to say that the closest thing to the symptoms he was witnessing in his emergency room were those created by altitude sickness.
This condition occurs when the organs that sense the level of oxygen concentration in the air you breathe notice that level decreasing, and begin a cascade of physiological changes that, as the COVID-19 patients horrifically showcase, can quickly turn deadly when they throw your body’s balance out of wack. And since these organs are found in your neck right next to your carotid arteries, it is well within the realm of possibility that after frying the nerve cells that control smell and taste, that if the viral load is large enough, that the infection may eventually move into these organs and fry them too – tricking your nervous system into miscommunicating the concentration of oxygen in the environment, and scrambling the same system that’s used when your body is subjected to the lowered oxygen levels that occur at high altitude to possibly trick your body into producing fewer red blood cells.
Additionally, an unnaturally juiced-up ability to use ADE would also explain what other front-line medical workers are observing in their patients: “I’m seeing people who look relatively healthy with a minimal health history, and they are completely wiped out, like they’ve been hit by a truck. This is knocking out what should be perfectly fit, healthy people. Patients will be on minimal support, on a little bit of oxygen, and then all of a sudden, they go into complete respiratory arrest, shut down and can’t breathe at all… That seems to be what happens to a lot of these patients: They suddenly become unresponsive or go into respiratory failure.” This sort of sudden precipitous decline is exactly what would be expected if COVID-19’s ability to use ADE had been accentuated in the lab, and would also explain the clinical observations that “this severity of [acute respiratory distress] is usually more typical of someone who has a near drowning experience — they have a bunch of dirty water in their lungs — or people who inhale caustic gas. Especially for it to have such an acute onset like that. I’ve never seen a microorganism or an infectious process cause such acute damage to the lungs so rapidly. That was what really shocked me.”
And also the following horrific account: “Holy shit, this is not the flu. Watching this relatively young guy, gasping for air, pink frothy secretions coming out of his tube and out of his mouth. The ventilator should have been doing the work of breathing but he was still gasping for air, moving his mouth, moving his body, struggling. We had to restrain him. With all the coronavirus patients, we’ve had to restrain them. They really hyperventilate, really struggle to breathe. When you’re in that mindstate of struggling to breathe and delirious with fever, you don’t know when someone is trying to help you, so you’ll try to rip the breathing tube out because you feel it is choking you, but you are drowning.”
No one knows exactly how many people have died in Wuhan, where in January and February crematoriums were running 24/7 when they’d typically only be operational for four hours a day and five days a week, but one apparent pattern is that the longer the virus was allowed to circulate and spit off new variants, the more lethal it became. Further evidence that far more lives were lost in Wuhan than the Chinese government is disclosing is provided by the fact that some 21 million cell phone users have somehow fallen of the map in China, as well as the long lines witnessed to collect loved ones’ ashes in Wuhan, which alone is reported to have had some 45,000 cremations. So this high lethality may be due in part to the multiple variants that had time to circulate in Wuhan, a hallmark of ADE since each subsequent variant is able to escape detection by our immune systems while still hijacking our white blood cells to increase its virulence.
And unsurprisingly, neither ADE nor the possibility that COVID-19 could be a product of dual-use gain-of-function serial animal passage has been mentioned on television by the virologists most likely to be able to identify these phenomena, meaning our front-line medical responders are being blindsided by a virus that’s not behaving like anything natural, like anything they’ve ever seen.
Even more indicative of an unnatural origin is the fact that the process of a virus transferring from one species to another, called a zoonotic jump, follows a well-established pattern in the literature. For a virus to fully jump into a new species, several months if not years are required for the process to complete. First a variant of the virus infects one new host, an infection that will fizzle out the first time it happens since there’s no way for a virus to be immediately adapted to a novel host species. But with continued exposure, more individual infections occur, some of which produce slightly mutated variants more adapted to the biology of the new host species, until eventually a variant wins the selective virulent lottery and is able to spread easily among its new host population, killing and reproducing as it goes.
And yet research published in 2018 found that only two-point-seven percent of villagers living about a kilometer from local bat-caves carried any evidence of past bat coronavirus infections. That study happened to examine people living in Wuhan as well, and found absolutely zero evidence of previous bat coronavirus infection at all there, making it all-but-impossible that zoonotic jumping occurred since earlier less-lethal variants of the virus would have left a wide signature in its new host population. Instead, COVID-19 emerged out of nowhere, or more likely just out of a local lab, and was immediately extraordinarily well-adapted to humans – spreading through the air with ease, killing as it went. Plus there’s the fact that all the initial victims were infected with the same variant, if a natural zoonotic jump had occurred, multiple different variants would inevitably have been found at the start of an outbreak.
And so as our titular quote alludes to, although its certainly possible to train a monkey to warm up a frozen burrito in a microwave, it’s pretty damn unlikely that a wild monkey that’d never been in contact with humans before could be presented with a frozen burrito and a microwave, and figure out to heat up a snack.
In the same way, everything about the way COVID-19 interacts with its human hosts and spreads among them indicates that it’s been artificially trained to be familiar with human biology – bizarrely blocking our senses of smell and taste before doing anything else, spreading readily among asymptomatic patients and then infecting and killing us with far more efficiency than any natural emergent virus at the start of its outbreak, and first emerging without taking any of the steps necessary to naturally perform a zoonotic jump into humans.
At some point in the next few weeks, Americans will literally be dropping dead in the streets, collapsing curbside as they already have in China, Italy, and Iran.
And while the people on your television will be parroting whatever their corporate parents tell them to, and while the scientists intimately involved in this kind of research preen as “having told you so” about the threat coronaviruses pose instead of informing the public about how truly grave the threat we face is – millions will die, and the work that caused this pandemic will continue at an accelerating pace as funding for gain-of-function research pours in.
“Nothing ever killed more people than being afraid to look like a sissy.”
As we’re quite fond of saying, America is a free country. And without sensible federal guidance, and with our pandemic response team being undermined by economic advisers and relatives with only the vaguest grasp of how science works,let alone epidemiology, we are very quickly approaching what might be our last inflection point.
While the Olympics have been postponed for the first time in modern history and other nations from New Zealand to France lock-down entirely for at least the coming several weeks, Americans haven’t been convinced not to crowd into public places and public transportation. Supposedly, prayer, toughness, and the American Spirit are going to work as effective anti-viral treatments.
So by the time the public and our officials collectively realize that COVID-19 has no intention of behaving anything close to like the flu does, or like any natural virus ever has, and that our front-line healthcare workers have been effectively battling a biological weapon for weeks, the deaths of millions more Americans will already be inevitable.
The current push to get the economy back on track leads only to human carnage, rushing back into the virus’s maws can’t possibly lead anywhere good. Slowing down to get the full picture of what’s going on is apparently off the table, as is any sort of reasoned discussion about how to save the most lives while still being able to keep the economy in stasis until the pandemic is under control. And so America will be forever changed by this pandemic, as our once-trusted institutions lead us directly to slaughter.
Rushing into danger has never ended well. After all, it’s always the doors and corners where they get you.
“Sometimes it takes a few monsters to get back on track.”
Sign the petition to end gain-of-function research here.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 04/12/2020 – 00:00 - Rich Chileans Scolded For Easter Bugouts To Coastal Compounds
Rich Chileans Scolded For Easter Bugouts To Coastal Compounds
While Chilean Interior Minister Gonzalo Blumel told citizens on Thursday of their “moral duty” to stay home during the Easter holiday, wealthy residents of Santiago reportedly traveled via private plane and helicopter to their costal enclaves, according to SCMP.
A view of Robinson Crusoe Island, off the coast of Chile, one of the remote locations that have been quarantined to curb the spread of COVID-19. The country currently has over 6,500 confirmed cases of coronavirus – one of the highest in Latin America. Some of the hardest-hit regions in the country are in high-end neighborhoods in the capital of Santiago – a city of 6 million at the foot of the Andes Mountains, according to the report.
Quarantine measures in many of those normally bustling communities require residents to shelter in place.
Chilean health officials said earlier this week they planned to cordon off the city, setting up road checkpoints manned by police and military, to prevent city dwellers from fleeing to second homes in rural areas at the risk of spreading the virus. –SCMP
Despite the lockdown, Santiago Mayor Felipe Guevara told state television “that people are using their own or leased helicopter or aircraft to leave the metropolitan region for their second home.”
He added that aviation officials would now ask ‘tough questions’ of any pilot trying to leave the city.
“What is going to be tested this weekend is how responsible, how supportive, we are as Chileans,” said Interior Minister Blumel in a televised statement ahead of the holiday.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 04/11/2020 – 23:35 - Welcome To India's Hunger Games
Welcome To India’s Hunger Games
Authored by Jayant Bhandari via LewRockwell./com,
While the world over people have grown myopic worrying about the real or imagined problem to do with corona-virus in their immediate surroundings, the world’s biggest prison has been erected.
1.38 billion people are in a complete house-arrest, with no possibility of leaving home. In scale, this is by far the first in human history.
I am not talking about China. When faced with the first wave of corona-virus, China focused mostly on Wuhan and other hotspots. It didn’t see a need to lockdown the whole country. Moreover, it didn’t think it could get away with that.
Any regime that contemplated locking down the whole country would have realized that not only would it create massive disruption, joblessness, poverty, and dislocation, but also that restarting the economy would be a gargantuan job. Farmers would have found themselves with no money to buy seeds and banks with no cash to lend out, and everyone in a vicious economic cycle.
India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, however, thought that he could enforce a draconian curfew without any legal backing in what is one of the world’s most undisciplined, chaotic, poverty-stricken and backward societies.
Modi’s confidence comes from an extraordinary cult following he has developed, very ironically, centered on the educated Middle-Class Indians, who are well-stocked with beer, chips, and Netflix connections.
On 24th March 2020, the Indian Prime Minister came on the Television to declare that starting four hours thereon would be a complete and total lockdown everywhere in the country for the next 21 days. He instructed that people were not to leave the door of their homes, go out for walks or walk their dogs, and that all offices, factories, shops, etc. had to be shut entirely. All the highways and roads were to be blocked. One of the biggest train networks came to a sudden standstill for the first time in its history of 167 years. Trains stopped wherever they were when the lockdown started, leaving passengers stranded. Every single flight, domestic as well as international, was canceled.
The whole of India went into a curfew.
The only part of the economy that was to be still open were medicine shops and grocery stores. Of course, Modi’s advisers and speechwriters, all of who are yes-men, had forgotten to consider how people would buy food if they could not leave home. Those who went to buy groceries were ruthlessly beaten by the police, who knew well that despite the constitution, courts would ignore the brutalities. A couple of days later when the government realized their mistake, a window to let people go out to buy groceries was opened up. The police had by then already put itself in the image of an invading army, which gives itself the right to rape and pillage the enemy without any restrictions or accountability—people who went shopping kept on getting beaten up.
Alas, Indians accept beatings without any resistance, videos of which are now all over the social media, the reason why I am sure that India never fought with the British for independence. The British left in moral disgust.
This curfew announcement was becoming a replay of the demonetization that happened in 2016 when after the initial announcement, the government realized that they had forgotten to think through simple issues, something a school project-group would have taken care of. Every single day since the lockdown, a new directive has been coming, increasing oppression and tightening the curfew.
A few days later, grocery shops were asked to reduce their opening hours. Thereafter, they were asked to close down completely. In my area, vegetables were to be supplied only by government vans, which conveniently came for a day or two and then disappeared. Realizing that the government was too incompetent, they allowed private grocers to start opening again. But there wasn’t much food. They had killed the supply chain by stopping road traffic. In rural places, prices of food prices have fallen precipitously. In the urban areas, it has gone up by as much as 500%, if you can find it.
That night of Modi’s announcement, everyone was stranded wherever they were. The country came to a screeching standstill.
Tens of millions of daily-wage migrant workers got stuck in cities. Their landlords knowing fully well that the workers were no longer earning threw them out. Modi should have known that “empathy” and “compassion” are foreign words for Indians.
Hungry and homeless, the migrant workers and those stuck at wrong places, despite getting beaten up by the police, decided not to care, got into a full fatalistic mode, and started their long march to their rural places, in many cases walking a thousand kilometers. Scores of people died. On the way, the police took out their sadism on them. The policeman is from the same lower-class bracket and enjoys his domination over them, a feeling of satisfaction he derives from looking down at those he thinks he has left behind.
If corona-virus is indeed a problem, Modi had spread it from cities to rural places.
Modi has taken very simplistically very badly thought-through decisions. Moreover, there are layers and layers of known, unknown, seen, and unseen issues of entangled complexity in such a large country, issues which no one could have thought of. The only solution to dealing with any problem that emerge will be more oppression.
Indian GDP per capita per year is US$2,338. Except for a tiny minority of people, say, less than 10% of the population, Indians are forever at the edge of starvation. Depending on how you look at it, between 500 million to over a billion people live from hand to mouth.
I thought the lockdown would fail in a couple of days. It has now lasted for almost two weeks.
The police, political parties, etc. are releasing a stream of photos and videos of the “charity” work they are doing, advertising their fake compassion on the back of humiliating those who accept the food. The food is only going to the local voters in urban areas, a minority of the distressed population.
There is no mechanism or food available with the government to feed all these people, even if the bureaucrats didn’t siphon off everything. Hundreds of millions of Indians are currently starving.
What interests Modi and the Indian Middle Class is not starvation deaths, but as low a count of corona-virus deaths as possible. He wants to be seen as a world leader. And the Middle Class desperately seeking an identity in the world wants India to be recognized.
Given the lockdown, the media, which is servile anyway, lacks access to information. And Modi has passed an order that anyone reporting “misinformation”, which of course is dependent on the interpretation of the bureaucracy, will face long prison sentences.
Even by the most pessimistic scenario to do with corona-virus, had no lockdown been imposed, the harm could not have been worse. So why did the government concoct an idea that was going to end up with horrible consequences?
There is a method to this madness. Evil is banal. Modi operates on two simple principles. He wants to cater to the emotional demands of the Middle Class, who want to feel vicariously virtuous and safe on the back of the vast poverty-stricken population of India.
In a very twisted caste-based thinking, while those in the Middle Class claim not to know of or believe in the caste system, they haven’t the slightest care or interest in the well-being of their chauffeurs, maids, and servants. They certainly have no comprehension of the existence of the migrant workers and the majority of the Indian population that lives in rural areas. They drive past them without seeing them.
Those among the poor people who find a slight way out of poverty, as is the case with the police, are more vicious towards the poor.
When the lockdown is over or falls apart, hundreds of millions of hungry, sick, tired, jobless people will emerge out of their over-crowded, claustrophobic slum houses. Indian economy will find it impossible to kickstart. Crime, human trafficking, abuses, and exploitation will sky-rocket. The virtue-signaling Middle Class, who will have enjoyed their salaries while being at home during the lockdown, will soon realize that their companies are bankrupt. In a country where no one thinks deeply, they will fail to connect the dots.
India will be a volatile country, economically and politically. As the situation matures over the next few weeks and months, India will increasingly become a police state, doing more wrongs to correct prior wrongs. Every emergent problem will be dealt with more oppression. Because Indians cannot be disciplined, India will not look like North Korea, but perhaps like one of the hellholes in central Africa, although on most human development metrics, India, despite the hype, is already worse.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 04/11/2020 – 23:10 - China Begins Mass Deletion Of Online Research On Coronavirus Origins
China Begins Mass Deletion Of Online Research On Coronavirus Origins
From perfectly-natural Chinese bat-soup to American bio-engineered depopulation bombs, the origins of COVID-19 (Kung Flu, the Chinese Virus, CCPandemic, or whatever name is no politically-correct) remain a riddle, wrapped in a propagandized mystery, inside an increasingly opaque enigma of facts and fallacies.
However, one thing seems clear, as The Epoch Times specifically noted, the rumors aren’t by accident and are a one-way street from Chinese officials mouths to western media’s ears: The CCP has been actively engaging in a disinformation campaign, and media outlets around the world have parroted the propaganda. As a result, entire nations have been operating under false information as they try to battle the pandemic within their borders.
Many countries have accepted China’s narrative and “they’re getting duped,” Joshua Philipp said.
“And, of course, this is because they don’t understand the Chinese Communist Party, they don’t understand how [the CCP] works, and, even as we speak right now, the Chinese Communist Party is claiming it’s over in China when it’s not.”
And just in case you were in any doubt about China’s efforts to hide the truth – whatever that truth may be – none other than the western establishment’s most righteous mouthpiece, The Guardian, is reporting that mass deletions of online research related to the origins of the coronavirus suggest China’s efforts to control the narrative are escalating wildly:
China is cracking down on publication of academic research about the origins of the novel coronavirus, in what is likely to be part of a wider attempt to control the narrative surrounding the pandemic, documents published online by Chinese universities appear to show.
Two websites for leading Chinese universities appear to have recently published and then removed pages that reference a new policy requiring academic papers dealing with Covid-19 to undergo extra vetting before they are submitted for publication.
Research on the origins of the virus is particularly sensitive and subject to checks by government officials, the notices posted on the websites of Fudan University and the China University of Geosciences (Wuhan) said. Both the deleted pages were accessed from online caches.
From the beginning, the CCP has not been forthcoming:
“We don’t know what’s there, but the fact that the Communist Party is covering this up should trouble us deeply,” China affairs columnist Gordon Chang said.
Additionally, Prof Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute in London, said the Chinese government had had a heavy focus on how the evolution and management of the virus is perceived since the early days of the outbreak.
“In terms of priority, controlling the narrative is more important than the public health or the economic fallout,” he said. “It doesn’t mean the economy and public health aren’t important. But the narrative is paramount.”
“If these documents are authentic it would suggest the government really wants to control the narrative about the origins of Covid-19 very tightly,” said Tsang of the reports of new regulations.
It goes deeper, however, as a separate document obtained by the Guardian, which could not be independently verified, appears to be from the Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University and also said publication of research into the origins of Covid-19 would need approval from the science and technology ministry.
Another notice, which appears to have been published on 9 April by the school of information science and technology at Fudan University in Shanghai, called for “strict and serious” management of papers investigating the source of the outbreak.
A source who alerted the Guardian to cached versions of the websites, and who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said they were concerned by what appeared to be an attempt by Chinese authorities to intervene in the independence of the scientific process. The person said researchers submitting academic papers on other medical topics did not have to vet their work with government ministries before seeking publication.
A technical analysis of the cached websites indicated that the posts were published on verified university websites before they were removed.
As The Guardian’s Beijing bureau chief Lily Kuo tweeted:
“Where the coronavirus originated is becoming more and more political…”
Finally, this escalation is notable in the context of comments from now outspoken China critic Kyle Bass, who tweeted:
“Secretary Xi is in trouble within China. According to my sources within, the party elite want Xi gone. The Guangdong elite (Uncle Deng’s family) are beginning to rattle the cages of change against the supposed ’emperor for life’. #XiJinping #china #ChinaLiedAndPeopleDied”
And, to be brutally frank, if China is now anxiously deleting (or banning before issuance) any research on the origins of the deadly pandemic, it appears to be pretty clear what those origins are likely to have been… no matter how many people get permanently banned from social media for mentioning such a blasphemy.
Kevin Carrico, a senior research fellow of Chinese studies at Monash University, said:
“There is a desire to a degree to deny realities that are staring at us in the face… that this is a massive pandemic that originated in a place that the Chinese government really should have cleaned up after SARS.”
Tyler Durden
Sat, 04/11/2020 – 22:45 - Welcome To The Greater Depression
Welcome To The Greater Depression
Authored by Doug Casey via InternationalMan.com,
There are a lot of questions people are asking themselves today. Among them: How serious is this economic downturn likely to be? How long will it last? How can it be ended? Whose fault is it?
The answers to these questions being given by pundits, economists, money honeys, and politicians are, almost without exception, totally incorrect. This is most unfortunate because it means the actions taken by the US (and, it appears, every other government in the world) are not only going to be ineffective but counterproductive.
For years, I’ve predicted something I’ve called the Greater Depression. I’ve seen its arrival as being completely inevitable. Only its exact timing was in doubt.
So let me be as clear as I can be about what’s going on in the world right now.
I believe this is it.
We’ve entered a downturn that is going to be longer, deeper, and different than the unpleasantness of 1929-1946.
I sincerely hate to stick my neck out by saying that. Clearly, the longest trend in existence is the Ascent of Man, and it’s usually a mistake to buck any trend; the trend is your friend. But no trend rises like a straight line. That said, it seems to me this is going to be a really, really serious correction – I suspect, the worst since the start of the Industrial Revolution.
You’re going to be bombarded by a barrage of misinformation, misinterpretations, wishful thinking, and snake-oil economics over the next few years. It’s critical that you rationally decide exactly what is happening and why.
My answer, in brief, is that the Greater Depression is almost entirely due to the intervention of government into the economy. The current hysteria over CoronaVirus is simply the pin that broke the bubble. In any event, State intervention takes three forms – taxation, regulation, and currency inflation – all of which are disastrous.
But of these, inflation is likely the worst, since it’s not only an indirect form of taxation, but it causes the business cycle, and that results in huge distortions in the ways people produce and consume, and causes huge misallocations of capital.
The best general definition of depression is: a period of time when most people’s standard of living drops significantly.
What you’re looking at is the Greater Depression. This isn’t a drill or an academic exercise woven out of airy fabrics.
Why the Depression is Happening
The physical world is unlikely to be changed much by the Greater Depression, but the way people relate to the world will change a great deal.
A real-estate collapse doesn’t mean buildings will tumble – but their prices will, and their owners may change.
A corporation’s bankruptcy doesn’t mean that the factories or technology it owned will vanish; they will become the property of a different corporation.
A government default on its bonds doesn’t mean the country (which is not at all the same thing as the government) is bankrupt. It just means that those who held the bonds are poorer and those who otherwise would have been taxed to pay the bonds are richer.
In other words, all the real wealth will still be there, but its ownership will change. And some commodities will become more (or less) valuable relative to other commodities.
The people who wind up wealthy as the Greater Depression unfolds will, predictably, be those who understand what’s going on. A grasp of the business cycle is essential to that understanding.
The business cycle is the phenomenon of boom and bust caused by inflation. It has been labeled as one of capitalism’s “internal contradictions” since the time of Karl Marx, but it is in fact the work of government. In a pure laissez-faire economy, the business cycle would not exist because there could be no politically driven inflation.
How does inflation cause the business cycle and, in turn, a depression? Let’s perform an autopsy.
Stage One: Inflation and Boom
Suppose that the city of Santa Monica, California, is an independent nation.
People are producing and trading to get what they want and need out of life. With no welfare, everyone is forced to work to support himself. The government concerns itself with maintaining the police and the courts and pretending that its little army keeps the rest of the world at bay.
Life is mellow, and the weather is good.
Let’s further suppose that the re-election campaign strategist for some local politician persuades some of the government’s economic advisors that Santa Monica is not as prosperous as it ought to be.
The economists opine that because there is a pool of “unemployed” (recent graduates, bored retirees, fire-ees, and recent job quitters), the economy suffers from a lack of consumer demand.
Creating demand seems like a good idea, so the government credits the bank account of every Santa Monican with $10,000.
The picture changes rapidly. Although there is no more wealth, there is a lot more money, say 20 percent more.
Everyone feels, and starts acting, much richer. They spend more. The economy is “stimulated.”
We’ll follow the fortunes of the swimming-pool industry, although every business in Santa Monica would have a similar tale.
The first business to prosper because of the government’s new monetary policy might be the telephone company, because all the phone lines are jammed with citizens trying to call the local swimming-pool company to place an order.
Believing that their ancient “reach out and touch someone” marketing campaign is finally catching on, phone company executives make plans to put in more lines and hire more operators.
But the telephone company’s expansion isn’t nearly as dramatic as that of the swimming-pool company, which is soon swamped with orders. Its owner is gratified that the market is finally rewarding his skills. It never occurs to him that the government’s actions might be causing a temporary upsurge in demand.
In any event, he raises prices to take advantage of the increased demand and then runs down to his bank to borrow some money for expansion.
The suppliers of swimming-pool materials, such as concrete, copper pipe, and earthmoving equipment, also go out and borrow money to expand.
Because the banks have just taken in billions of dollars, courtesy of the government, they have plenty of money to lend, and at very low rates.
“Interest” is the rental price of money, and with money in such ample supply, the price drops. Like any other businessmen with excess inventory, the bankers have a “special” on money.
All the expanded companies need new workers but have trouble getting them, since everyone willing to be is already employed.
To induce workers to change jobs, the pool suppliers offer higher wages. Late-night television is filled with ads for schools who will train people to drive heavy equipment, pour cement, and lay pipe to take advantage of those great new jobs.
Meanwhile, all this activity hasn’t escaped the notice of budding entrepreneurs. Soon the family leisure vans and custom surfboards are put up as collateral for loans to start new swimming pool companies.
Bankers are eager to oblige, since they now have so much money on deposit and can only make profits by lending it out.
Stockbrokers, seeing a new growth industry, raise millions from eager investors with an unexpected $10,000, and float new issues.
Business is excellent, and many millionaires are made overnight.
A new class of swimming-pool construction millionaires emerges. They and their highly paid employees drive Ferraris and wear Armani suits, gold chains, and silk shirts.
Merchants draw down their cash reserves to stock up on inventory to cater to them.
Many people liquidate their savings to move into bigger houses (the banks have loads of money for mortgages), and the real-estate market moves up. So does the stock market, since companies everywhere are expanding.
With wages and profits up and stocks and real estate adding value daily, most people tend to work less and play more.
A “new era” appears to have arrived, with universal prosperity and a higher standard of living for all. It looks like the economists were right, and a little inflation is a good thing.
So far, it’s a pretty picture.
But this is a game, like the “What’s wrong with this picture?” puzzles we used to have in grade school. This is where it pays to have the skills of an economist. The immediate and direct effects of the government’s inflation certainly seem good, but what are the delayed and indirect effects?
The folks in the government have little concern for delayed effects, even assuming some spoilsport points them out. The problems are in the future – after the next election. And since long-term effects are indirect, they are easy to blame on something or someone else.
The perceived benefits of inflation, however, are not only very clear, they’re in the here and now. Moreover, the “economists” say “fine tuning” may extend the boom indefinitely.
So the government will probably fail the “What’s wrong with this picture?” test that a six-year-old would pass. But let’s find out.
Stage Two: A Slowdown
After a while, everyone who wants a swimming pool has placed an order, and sales taper off.
Furthermore, people have started to notice a disturbing trend: prices around town have been moving up. The “economists” have neglected to mention that prices always rise when the supply of money increases without a corresponding increase in the supply of goods and services.
But what about all the new pools and other items? Aren’t they the goods and services that the inflation made possible?
Yes, but no new wealth has been created, just different – and more visible – types of wealth.
Everyone who got into the swimming-pool business was doing something else before, something that he’s not doing now. Even though everyone’s standard of living has gone up in some obvious ways, it’s already started dropping in other ways. All those new heavy-equipment drivers used to be parking cars, pumping gas, and washing dishes. Their ex-employers have found out that no one wants to work at menial jobs. Good help has become hard to find. Perhaps they can import a lot of Mexican labor.
If the government’s inflationary gift to the people has increased the money supply by 20 percent, then prices in general have increased by 20 percent.
The price inflation will be uneven, however; not all prices will increase by the same amount. The prices of some particularly desirable goods – like swimming pools, the water to fill them, and the big houses new millionaires can suddenly afford – now cost much more.
A few things may actually drop in price, like the rice and beans that only poor people eat. The demand for them has decreased, since poor people are trading up to chicken and beef, which hit new highs.
It is impossible to get a plumber to fix a leak in a home, perhaps because his time is much more valuable subcontracting to a pool-piping entrepreneur.
The rare doctor who once made house calls no longer will; he has made millions investing in newly floated swimming-pool company stock.
Babysitters now start at $25 an hour, for a minimum of four hours. And interest rates are starting to head up, since people have exhausted their savings and will not save more unless they get an “inflation premium” – higher interest rates to compensate for the debasement of the currency – on their capital.
In fact, lots of subtle distortions are filtering through the economy.
Some people who spent their $10,000 to buy a swimming pool are finding that demand has driven the price of water way up and they cannot afford to fill their pools; nor can they afford to maintain them with higher-priced labor.
And since most people are consuming more and producing less, as people do when they feel wealthier, there is less wealth than there was before the magic of monetary policy transformed the way their world worked.
Santa Monicans acted in ways they wouldn’t have if the government had not created all the new money. Inflation has encouraged them to produce things they would not have (like swimming pools) and not to consume things they would have before (like rice and beans).
The inflation also has encouraged an over-allocation of capital to inventories of luxury goods. Even though a lot of people have fine new pools, the standard of living has gone down in subtle ways.
Stage Three: Full Recession
Soon there is a rapid decline in new orders to the many pool companies now in business.
Bankers and brokers had not realized that an economy that could support only one pool company before the boom might have trouble supporting twenty a short time later.
In fact, less demand exists now than before, when only one company operated, since many sales have been stolen from the future.
The companies have to start laying off employees; many have trouble repaying their bank loans.
The telephone, copper, and cement companies feel the ripple effect, as do the Ferrari and gold-chain dealers, and the stock market collapses. Doctors fret as their swimming-pool stocks plummet.
The Santa Monica economy is experiencing a recession. A recession follows an inflationary boom when the market tries to readjust to normal patterns of supply and demand.
It’s a painful period when the free market corrects the misallocation of resources encouraged by government inflation.
People have more of some consumer products than ever, and there is more plant capacity to produce those products, but few people are as well off as they were before the inflation. They’re actually less well off than if the government had only taxed them.
Taxes alone would not have led people to think they were richer than they really were; there would be much less need for bankruptcy lawyers.
It is a paradox that even though the artificial boom caused many problems (however much fun it was at the time), the recession actually has many positive aspects.
Consumers cut back on spending, so they are again building up savings.
Businesses lower prices to induce consumers to buy.
Workers, afraid of losing their jobs, work harder (that is, increase productivity).
Companies (and workers) that cannot give consumers what they want at prices they can afford are forced to improve the way they do business.
And citizens who were prudent during the boom have numerous bargains to choose among.
Whether the recession becomes a depression is largely up to the government, which should admit that its effort to stimulate the economy was a stupid idea; the government hasn’t raised the general standard of living, just changed people’s patterns of production and consumption. It actually reduced the overall level of prosperity.
At this point the government should exit the scene, let the swimming-pool companies go bankrupt, allow the banks’ shareholders to eat their loan losses, and permit the would-be tycoons to go back to parking cars and pumping gas.
But doing this would make politicians immensely unpopular, and they would have to find a new line of work after the next election.
Besides, if they play it right, the crisis can be turned into an opportunity to increase their power and prestige. And of course, their economic advisors have plenty of “new ideas” for “change.”
Stage Four: Recovery
No politician wants to be blamed for a recession.
Moreover, strong vested interests are at work to keep the swimming-pool boom going. In private, businessmen make it clear that any incumbent failing to support the industry can forget about campaign contributions.
The Association of Swimming Pool Contractors declares that it would be “economically disastrous and a criminal disregard of their sacred public trust” for government officials to let the industry collapse.
The Santa Monica Water Authority suggests it would be in the public interest for the government to subsidize water so people can afford to fill their pools, and children can get daily exercise by swimming in them.
It is clear that not just the economy but the nation’s health and youth are at stake. The Silk Shirt and Gold Chain Retailers Association proclaims: “The city can never recover from the blow if the pool industry is allowed to fail.”
The bankers point to losses their depositors may have to take, and the Santa Monica Pool Supplies Association recommends tax credits for pool equipment as a cost-effective way to get the economy moving again. All the workers agree; they have no interest in pay cuts or unemployment.
A deflation could easily happen. Many borrowers could default on millions in bank loans, and much of the money supply could be wiped out.
The stocks and bonds of failing companies would become worthless.
As people scramble for money to keep the doors open, interest rates move up sharply. Even with the millions of new dollars in circulation, there’s a shortage of cash.
Everyone is screaming at their elected representatives to bring back prosperity and the good old days.
The screaming isn’t about “theoretical” issues, like whether the government should have had the ability to manipulate the money supply, or how a gold standard (that would have prevented the boom and bust in the first place) might best be established; those issues are considered irrelevant because they won’t solve the immediate problem.
What economic pundits suggest, instead, is more stimulation.
Since the currency has lost 20 percent of its value, it will take $12,000 of “stimulus” per person to achieve the same effect that $10,000 achieved in the first cycle.
The injection of new money drives down interest rates, reliquifies the markets, and heads off a deflation.
Seeing how close they came to the precipice, the pundits suggest a “safety net” so it won’t happen again. This would include unemployment insurance, so workers won’t have to worry about quickly getting new jobs at wages lower than they would like; bank deposit insurance, so no one has to worry whether his bank is prudently managed; some government agencies to help business, and some others to ensure business does not abuse that aid.
Perhaps an industrial policy to coordinate the economy and make sure business and labor do not make the same mistakes they made in the last boom. All this can be financed by borrowing, which is much less painful than taxes. It will all suck a tremendous amount of wealth out of productive sectors of the economy, but no one really cares because investors can pad their portfolios with government bonds.
A full business cycle has been completed: stability, followed by inflationary expansion, slowdown, and deflationary contraction. The contraction will be called a recession if the government acts quickly and reinflates the money supply in time to prevent complete collapse.
It will be called a depression if the government decides not to act, acts too late, or acts with too little reinflation.
In other words, it will be a depression if the government allows the economy to cleanse itself of the distortions that have occurred due to earlier government intervention and inflation; it will be a recession if the government steps in before the liquidation is complete.
Subsequent Cycles
Even if the government does act, it cannot undo the past.
People have experienced inflation. They are therefore much less willing to save money and far more eager to borrow to take advantage of its loss in value. Interest rates go up, as both savers and borrowers allow for the risk of future price inflation.
Businessmen and consumers start planning for higher prices. Some businesses hire economists to second-guess the gyrations of the economy and retain lobbyists to argue for their “fair share” of further government spending.
Everyone saw the fortunes made during the inflationary boom and also saw that the government had the power to prevent a collapse, so many people are willing to speculate on the inflationary trend continuing. Some take courses on buying real estate with “no money down.”
People feel richer than ever, consumer confidence hits new highs, and most investment is directed to cater to these different, and higher, levels of consumption. There are more construction companies, more big houses, more long lunches to celebrate.
The longer this goes on and the more business cycles the economy goes through, the more convinced people will become that the government not only can but should “manage” prosperity.
The distortions in the economy harden and set. More and more capital is allocated to activities that would be deemed silly were it not for government policy. Where once it was inconsequential, the government eventually becomes the major force in the economy. People plan their lives around what it will or won’t do.
But the economy becomes more heavily burdened with each business cycle, as more debt is accumulated. When later recessions hit, business finds itself stuck with more spare inventory and plant capacity and has to lay off even more workers.
Later recessions find both businesses and consumers deeply in debt, with no savings to rely on during hard times.
If the government had ended the game the first time around, the economy would have had only a sharp, but brief depression, like those that occurred before World War I.
The longer the process continues, the more severe the eventual outcome.
After a while, people start to see both inflation and recession at the same time.
Despite the presence of more luxury cars, houses, and restaurants than ever, the quality of life for middle and lower income classes is fading, as are hopes for the future.
The government has put itself in the position of driving a fast car with a sticky throttle. If it stamps on the brakes to slow it down, the car will spin; if it doesn’t, the car will run off the road.
Of course, the driver wants neither to happen, so he attempts to use moderation, stepping on the brakes but releasing them before the car spins. The ride inevitably gets wilder and crazier.
First to 10 mph, then back to 5 mph. Then to 20 mph, and back to 10 mph. To 40 mph, with a disinflationary bust back to 30 mph.
In the early ‘70s, the inflationary gas took the roadster up to 100 mph, and the 1974-1975 recession dropped it back down to 75 mph.
Re-stimulation took it up to 120 mph by 1980, and it has been careening about the road to the alternating exhilaration and terror of the passengers. Now the roadster (the economy) is approaching a spin on the edge of a cliff. If it survives, the next escalation will be to 160 mph, on a mountain road.
Beyond Santa Monica
If the problem were limited to the People’s Republic of Santa Monica, a small place, residents could easily move to surrounding areas to rebuild their lives, and there would be lots of outside capital available.
But the United States is the largest economy in the world, so the solution will not be that simple.
Worse, the US dollar is the world’s reserve currency; it constitutes most of the foreign exchange reserves of the majority of other countries. What happens to the dollar has direct bearing on what happens to other currencies. And what happens to the US economy is critical to what happens to every other economy in the world.
If US citizens were unable to buy Japanese cars and electronics, the Japanese would have massive unemployment, along with a real collapse of their economy. They would then be unable to buy goods they now buy from the United States, leading to even bigger problems. The situation could, and probably would, move out of control.
The situation is really much worse than the example presented in the story about Santa Monica. It would be bad enough if the government inflated only by crediting everyone’s account. That would propel a business cycle, but there would not be any special beneficiaries.
Instead, the government raises money by borrowing. It sells bonds to the public. The Federal Reserve honors the government’s checks, used to repay the bonds, by increasing the depositors’ reserve balance – like handing out poker chips.
The government borrows dollars and repays the debt with poker chips, trading them for real wealth at face value.
This process drains resources from the private sector, to the benefit of well-connected special-interest groups. The government doesn’t distribute the money it borrowed equally, or even randomly.
Its beneficiaries receive federal grants, loans, and purchase orders. They can spend dollars at close to their old value, before the money starts filtering down through society, raising prices.
They are the groups close to the government: Big Business, Big Labor, and the establishment in general. They differ on details of personality and policy, but ardently support the system as it is, with money, rhetoric, and influence.
Politics is the critical driving mechanism of this process. Considering that the US groups in control of the political process have a vested interest in the status quo, it is problematical to look to politics for change.
The change we’re likely to see will depend on whether the forces of inflation or deflation win out. Hence, it is a choice not between prosperity and depression, but between an inflationary and a deflationary depression.
* * *
The biggest financial bubble in human history has popped… and the coming financial volatility will be unlike anything we’ve ever seen before. It will be an increasingly dangerous time for retirees, savers, and investors. That’s precisely why NY Times best-selling author Doug Casey and his team just released a pressing new report, Surviving and Thriving During an Economic Collapse. Click here to download the free PDF now.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 04/11/2020 – 22:20 - Here Is The "Secret Weapon" That Allowed Tiny Oil Producer Mexico To Defy Giant Saudi Arabia
Here Is The “Secret Weapon” That Allowed Tiny Oil Producer Mexico To Defy Giant Saudi Arabia
It wasn’t meant to be like this.
After the Saudis and Russia cobbled a historic OPEC+ oil production cut which at 10 million b/d was the biggest ever, and one which received the blessing – if not the participation – of Donald Trump, the rest of OPEC+ was supposed to applaud the two oil exporting giants who agreed to cut 23% of their, and everyone else’s output, and fall in line agreeing to the terms that were imposed upon them in hopes of sending the price of oil slightly higher, because as a reminder even the agreed upon 10 million cut would do nothing to balance an oil market crushed by what Trafigura calculates was a record 36 million b/d drop in oil demand.
However, that did not happen because one country dared to stand up to not just Saudi Arabia, but also Russia and the rest of the OPEC cartel, and even forced Trump to bend to its will with the US president – desperate to get the price of WTI higher in hopes of avoiding mass defaults for the US shale industry – saying he would be responsible for Mexico’s production cut balance.
That country is the southern US neighbor, Mexico, which pumps a relatively tiny 1.75 million b/d and which would have been forced to cap its output some 400,000 barrels lower to comply with the deal, however the most Mexico would agree to was a a minuscule 100kb/d cut – a number that is completely meaningless in the grand scheme of the oil market – yet one which openly defies Saudi Arabia which staked its reputation as OPEC’s most powerful nation by guaranteeing that every OPEC member would agree to the 23% production cut.
What followed has been the most surreal “Mexican standoff”, one which started during the OPEC teleconference on Thursday, continued on Friday when the G-20 was supposed to also join the production cut yet failed to do so over the confusion over Mexico’s ongoing intransigence, and has not yet been resolved as of late on Saturday, with Mexico’s Energy Minister Rocio Nahle refusing to budge from her insistence that the country could only cut output by 100,000 barrels a day, 300,000 less than its fair share of 23% reductions by everyone in the OPEC+ group. On Friday morning, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said he had resolved the matter in a phone call with Trump. The U.S. would make an additional 250,000 barrels a day of cuts on Mexico’s behalf. But such a theatrical sleight of hand was not enough for the Saudis who would appear weak, and unable to reign in the cartel’s members, would risk cheating and excess production by virtually every smaller OPEC member who would feel, rightfully so, that it is unfair for Mexico to get preferential treatment.
As a result, two days after oil surged on hopes of (at least) a 10mmb/d cut, the deal that was supposedly finalized on Thursday has yet to emerge, with the that come Sunday evening when trading reopens, Brent could plunge as the production cut ends in disarray.
But why is Mexico risking the collapse of OPEC, and another sharp plunge in oil prices, by refusing to comply with the deal – after all if Mexico cuts just another 250K barrels in output from its adjusted total it will unlock if not higher prices, then at least avoid an even sharper plunge in the price of oil. Sure, it may not balance the market, and $50 Brent won’t come back for a long time, but avoiding another dramatic plunge in oil would be worth the cut, right?
Well, no because while that would be the reasonable economic equation for all other OPEC members, Mexico has always had what Bloomberg dubbed a “sector weapon” up its sleeve, one which incentivizes Mexico’s president to either get his way, or watch as oil craters… and get paid billions.
We are talking of course about Mexico’s famous annual oil hedge, which in recent years has manifested itself mostly in the form of billions of dollars spent on oil puts, which we profiled extensively back in 2016 and 2017.
As Bloomberg’s Javier Blas, who has closely followed Mexico’s oil hedgers in the recent past writes, for the last two decades, Mexico has bought “Asian” style put options from some of the most prominent US investment banks and oil companies, in what’s considered Wall Street’s largest – and most closely guarded – annual oil deal. The options give Mexico the right to sell its oil at a predetermined price. They are the equivalent of an insurance policy: the country banks all gains from higher prices but enjoys the security of a minimum floor. So – unlike all of its OPEC peers – if oil prices remain weak or plunge even further, Mexico will still book higher prices.
In 2016, Mexico spent $1.03 billion to protect itself from a downturn in prices, according to data released in the quarterly budget balance. In recent years, Mexico has spent an average $1 billion buying the hedges. The hedge first appeared in 2001, when Mexico made a tentative showing, spending just $217.3 million on put options, a fraction of the approximately $1 billion a year it would spend later. In 2003 and 2004, with oil prices rising, the country opted not to hedge at all. The strategy came into its own in 2005: Mexico has hedged every year since without interruption, giving it a unique peace of mind that should a worst case scenario happen, it would be able to sleep soundly a t night. Agustín Carstens, who later became head of the central bank, was finance minister when a massive $5.1 billion payout came in 2009; some government officials also refer to the annual oil bet as “the Agustínian hedge”; then in 2015, after the OPEC Thanksgiving massacre of 2015, the hedge made $6.4 billion and another $2.7 billion in 2016 after Saudi Arabia waged another failed price war aimed to crushing US shale producers.
Mexico’s annual spending on its hedge with Wall Street banks is shown in the chart below.
Unfortunately for the rest of the world’s oil producers, only Mexico had the foresight to hedge an outcome such as the one we are seeing now, and that is giving Mexico unprecedented leverage to demand… pretty much anything, even preferential treatment from its OPEC peers.
To be sure, the hedge isn’t the only reason Mexico is holding out, but it strengthens the country’s hand and makes it less desperate for a deal than countries whose budgets have been ravaged by the collapse in oil prices since the start of the year. As we reported on Thursday, the biggest reason driving leftwing populist President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador to resist the deal, was his pledge to revive oil production via state-owned Pemex. Slashing 400,000 barrels a day to comply with the OPEC+ deal, rather than the 100,000 barrels a day that Mexico has counter-offered to Saudi Arabia, would put on hold his ambitious plan to return Pemex to its former glory.
But a token 100,000 cut – one which flaunts the Saudi demands for equal sacrifice by all the cartel members – is unacceptable to Crown Price MbS, hence the Mexican standoff continues.
“The insurance policy isn’t cheap,” Mexican Finance Minister Arturo Herrera told broadcaster Televisa on March 10. “But it’s insurance for times like now. Our fiscal budget isn’t going to be hit.” Pemex, the state-owned company, has its own separate, smaller oil hedge.
As Bloomberg reports, Mexico has disclosed very few details about its insurance for 2020 after it declared the sovereign hedge a state secret. However, based on limited public information, alongside historical data about previous years, it’s possible to make a rough estimate of the potential payout if prices remain low. The government told lawmakers it has guaranteed revenues to support the assumptions for oil prices made in the country’s budget – of $49 a barrel for the Mexican oil export basket, equivalent to about $60-$65 a barrel for Brent crude.
Mexico locks in that revenue via two elements: the hedge, and the country’s oil stabilization fund. The fund historically has only provided $2-$5 a barrel, so one can assume that Mexico hedged at $45 a barrel at least for its crude. In the past, Mexico has hedged around 250 million barrels, equal to nearly all its net oil exports in an operation that runs from Dec. 1 to Nov. 30.
Putting these calculations together suggests that if the Mexican oil export basket were to remain at current levels, the country would receive a multi-billion dollar payout. Since December, the Mexican oil basket has averaged $42 a barrel.
In other words, if current low prices for Mexican oil continue until the end of November, the average would drop to just above $20 a barrel, and the hedge would pay out close to $6 billion, according to Bloomberg News calculations.In short, Mexico may be far more incentivized to see oil prices stay low, or drop lower, than rebound modestly while also losing out on an additional 250kb/d in potential output.
It is this math that is threatening to collapse not only the production cut deal, but OPEC itself because if the Saudis are seen as too weak to get even tiny oil exporters Mexico to heel – and absent MbS paying AMLO billions they won’t be able to – then all bets are off as Riyadh loses what little respect it had before the deal. and the “cartel” becomes an every oil producer for himself free for all.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 04/11/2020 – 22:03 - Farmers Battered By Food Glut As COVID-19 Shifts How America Eats
Farmers Battered By Food Glut As COVID-19 Shifts How America Eats
The trade war has battered US farmers over the last several years only now to be sucker-punched by COVID-19, which has transformed how Americans eat, resulting in massive food gluts across the country, reports The Wall Street Journal.
With at least 95% of Americans under government-enforced stay-at-home public safety orders, restaurants have been forced to close. Only a few are providing curbside pickup, but even then, many Americans do not trust other people preparing their food.
We’ve been documenting the state of the restaurant industry, on a state by state basis, now showing traffic is down 100% in nearly every state for the first seven days of April.
OpenTable restaurant traffic per state Quarantines have forced Americans out of restaurants and into supermarkets over the last month, resulting in a massive food glut for farmers and food companies. Now the agricultural industry must reduce output as sales to restaurants collapse:
“Farmers and food companies across the country are throttling back production as the virus creates chaos in the agricultural supply chain, erasing sales to restaurants, hotels and cafeterias despite grocery stores rushing to restock shelves. American producers stuck with vast quantities of food they cannot sell are dumping milk, throwing out chicken-hatching eggs and rendering pork bellies into lard instead of bacon,” The Journal notes.
Many of these companies have been supplying the restaurant industry, will have difficulty reworking supply chains towards supermarkets. This has already forced many farmers to reduce the acreage of planted vegetables and trim their flock of chickens this month as gluts continue to materialize and weigh on spot prices.
Mississippi-based Sanderson Farms Inc. told The Journal that restaurant demand for its agricultural products had been halved since the virus outbreak.
“When you have panic in the marketplace, weird things happen,” said Tanner Ehmke, who studies agricultural markets for farm lender CoBank.
Dennis Rodenbaugh, executive vice president at Dairy Farmers of America, said consumers had changed their eating habits during the pandemic, “and it’s rippling back right to the farm gate.”
As much as 7% of all US milk produced last week was dumped, said Rodenbaugh, as he warned with restaurants shuttered, the glut will get even worse.
We are dumping milk in South Florida because there is no home for it. We still have to feed and care for our cows, and our farmers are still milking cows, in hopes that we can sell that milk in the future… #stillfarming pic.twitter.com/tn4dpUBuUa
— Ben Butler (@BenLButler) April 3, 2020
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What a waste! #COVID19Pandemic is forcing Dairy farmers to dump their milk down the drain so the milk market doesn’t implode. Why not give it away to those who need it? We’ll get to the bottom of it at 6:00. pic.twitter.com/ZXp2uSjWQa
— Shaun Gallagher (@ShaunGalNews) April 2, 2020
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Heartbreak of dumping whole milk as the supply chain struggles. Photo via a Facebook friend pic.twitter.com/Q9j1dmkIyV
— NYFarmer (@NYFarmer) April 2, 2020
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Video shows Eloy Dairy Farmer dumping good Milk due to low demand from the Covid-19 pandemic. #fox10phoenix pic.twitter.com/vD6cPvFtn7
— Mark Johnson (@MarkyJFox10) April 6, 2020
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Dairy farmers are dumping milk to curb an oversupply, as prices drop to lows that haven’t been seen in years pic.twitter.com/TkUSJEwRBD
— QuickTake by Bloomberg (@QuickTake) April 7, 2020
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With dairy supplies quickly increasing, the industry might have to cut production across farms to avoid oversupply conditions that would crush spot prices.
Nancy Mueller’s Wisconsin dairy farm of 1,000 cows had to pour 6,000 gallons of milk into a manure pit last week as demand collapsed with area restaurants closed.
“It was heart-wrenching” to see all the destruction the pandemic has created, Mueller said.
Bob Wills, the founder of Milwaukee-based Clock Shadow Creamery, said with Milwaukee area restaurants closed, sales of his ricotta cheeses crashed 95%. He’s stopped all production and laid off most of his staff to weather the economic downturn.
Howard Bohl, who milks 450 cows in east-central Wisconsin, has had to send 20 of his cows to the slaughterhouse and dump ten tanker loads, or about 60,000 gallons of milk into his manure pits as demand for his dairy products collapses.
Dairy Farmers of America said it would be providing aid to farmers who have dumped milk. Currently, a “milk crisis plan” is being formulated by the Department of Agriculture to save the industry from collapse. There’s the possibility that excess dairy products could be rerouted to America’s new breadlines that are exponentially growing.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 04/11/2020 – 21:55 - The Most (And Least) Gun-Friendly States
The Most (And Least) Gun-Friendly States
Submitted by Kathy Morris via Zippia,
For many in America, guns are a way of life and part of their cultural and national identity. However, the gun industry also creates a lot of jobs and is an economic powerhouse in the US. How many job exactly? 149,146 jobs in 20019, that paid over $6,227,108,200 in wages, and over 21 billion in economic impact. Yes, that’s billion with a B.
However, not all states are experiencing the same economic impact from guns. In fact, many states and cities within them have strong gun restrictions.
It made us wonder, which states are the most gun friendly and have the strongest gun industry? Where should someone looking for a job in the fire arms industry look? We hit the numbers to answer all of these questions.
Most 2nd Amendment Friendly States
1. Arizona
2. Idaho
3. Texas
4. Arkansas
5. New Hampshire
6. Georgia
7. Alabama
8. Mississippi
9. Missouri
10. South Carolina
Notice anything these have in common?
Yup, the south and Midwest dominate the list– thanks to a combination of gun friendly laws, high gun ownership, and strong economic activity surrounding the firearm industry. Keep reading to see how these states earned their spot– and which states are the least gun friendly.
HOW WE DETERMINED THESE RESULTS
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We ranked each state on:
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Number of firearm jobs
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Average Wage of firearm jobs
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Guns per Capita
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Gun laws/restrictions
First we examined the economic output of guns in each state, using the most recent data from The Firearms Industry And Trade Report. From here we ranked each state on the number of firearms jobs directly created by the gun industry (think manufacturers of firearms, ammunition, and supplies, and companies that distribute or sell these products). After that we found the average firearm job wage. Since higher wage is typically correlated with higher positions, this helps identify both which states offer the best opportunities in the industry, as well as which states have more administrative/higher-up positions.
Guns per capita came from the World Population Review. The more guns owned, the more gun friendly the state.
Arizona
Guns Per Capita: 25.61
Gun Friendly Laws: #6
Gun Jobs: 3,476
Average Wage: $51,985Arizona is the most pro-gun state in the nation. While Arizona only has 3,476 people employed from the gun industry, they pull in a solid average salary of $51,985. Arizona also has the 6th loosest fun laws in the nation.
Idaho
Guns Per Capita: 28.86
Gun Friendly Laws: 2
Gun Jobs: 3610
Average Wage: $40,937.92
Idaho has some of the least restrictive gun laws in the nation, nabbing it the #2 spot. Idaho is a fairly sparsely populated state, with lots of outdoor area to enjoy hunting and the other gun sports.
Texas
Guns Per Capita: 20.79
Gun Friendly Laws: 14
Gun Jobs: 11467
Average Wage: $36,018.78
Surprised to see Texas in the top 10 list? Then you don’t know Texas. Texans love their guns and their freedom to choose how they arm themselves with them. Texas also has the highest number of gun jobs in the nation.
Arkansas
Guns Per Capita: 26.57
Gun Friendly Laws: 10
Gun Jobs: 3101
Average Wage: $40,979.36
Arkansas is fourth most pro-gun state in the country. This Southern state has a high level of gun ownership, no doubt helped by lax gun restrictions.
New Hampshire
Guns Per Capita: 46.76
Gun Friendly Laws: 21
Gun Jobs: 2551
Average Wage: $77,343.67
New Hampshire is the only Northeastern state to make the top 10. What earned New Hampshire their unexpected spot on the list? They have the second highest gun ownership in the nation! While they may have more restrictions than the rest of the top 10 on ownership, compared to their neighboring states, they are far less stringent.
Georgia
Guns Per Capita: 18.22
Gun Friendly Laws: 18
Gun Jobs: 4519
Average Wage: $36,251.47
Georgia is the 6th most pro-gun state in the country. No one area pushed the Peach state to the top- rather a general gun positive atmosphere and solid ranking in each category.
Alabama
Guns Per Capita: 33.15
Gun Friendly Laws: 13
Gun Jobs: 3105
Average Wage: $35,309.57
Down in the deep south is Alabama, the 7th most pro-gun state in the nation. Alabama is a state that is proud to be country, with all the trappings that come with it, including gun ownership.
Mississippi
Guns Per Capita: 11.89
Gun Friendly Laws: 1
Gun Jobs: 2324
Average Wage: $41,558.43
Mississippi is the 9th most pro-state in the nation and has the friendliest gun laws in the nation. Workers in the firearms industry pull in an annual salary of $41,558 a year.
Missouri
Guns Per Capita: 11.94
Gun Friendly Laws: 4
Gun Jobs: 5513
Average Wage: $29,516.38
Missouri is either a southern or Midwestern state depending on who you ask. Since both regions are known for their love of guns and gun ownership, it should be no surprise to see Missouri is the 9th most pro-gun state. Missouri has the 6th highest number of gun jobs in the country and permitless carry.
South Carolina
Guns Per Capita: 21.01
Gun Friendly Laws: 20
Gun Jobs: 2957
Average Wage: $42,023.47
South Carolina is the 10th most gun friendly state in the US. South Carolina has less gun restrictions than most states and a decent bit of economic activity from the gun industry.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 04/11/2020 – 21:30 -
- Watch Dozens Of Ambulances Line Up Outside Moscow Hospital As Russian COVID-19 Cases Soar
Watch Dozens Of Ambulances Line Up Outside Moscow Hospital As Russian COVID-19 Cases Soar
Russian President Vladimir Putin has imposed a national lockdown across Russia until the end of the month to try and fight the coronavirus, after Russia’s bold attempt to block transmission including border closures and severe travel restrictions that were at the time some of the most aggressive in the world, it seems the country’s effort either fell apart, or the virus managed to sneak inside anyway.
Now, Russia has roughly 13,584 cases, and 106 confirmed deaths on its hands, many of them in Moscow.
Yesterday, the New York Times published a story about the increasingly dire situation in the country. Hospitalizations related to COVID-19 in Moscow alone have doubled in the past week to 3,000, and that number continues to rapidly rise.
Moscow’s mayor, Sergei Sobyanin, sounded a further alarm, saying that the virus “is gaining momentum” and that “the situation is becoming increasingly problematic.”
The latest numbers show a troubling spike in new cases that is making some local officials fear Russia might be heading down the same path as Italy and Spain.
The capital city’s ambulance service and hospitals have been “stretched to the limit,” according to one Moscow health official. And if the world had any doubts about just how bad things are getting, they need only watch this clip of the line of ambulances waiting to drop patients (presumably mostly COVID-19 related) off at a hospital in Moscow.
The line appears to include dozens of ambulances potentially the majority running inside the city.
Line of ambulances at the hospital in Moscow. Wow https://t.co/Bx8QiOOxag
— Olga Lautman (@olgaNYC1211) April 11, 2020
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Moscow alone reported 1,124 new cases of confirmed coronavirus infections on Friday, bringing the city-wide total to 7,822, Moscow accounts for 2/3rds of Russia’s cases.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 04/11/2020 – 21:05 - Snowden: Governments Using Pandemic To Build "Architecture Of Oppression" Surveillance
Snowden: Governments Using Pandemic To Build “Architecture Of Oppression” Surveillance
Authored by John Vibes via TheMindUnleashed.com,
In addition to quarantines and lockdowns, some governments like those in China, Taiwan, and South Korea have been using a surveillance strategy called “contact tracing” to reduce the spread of the novel coronavirus.
While each country’s contract tracing program has slight variations, all of them are essentially cell phone apps that keep a running record of the user’s heath and the health records of all the people they come into contact with.
If a cell phone comes in close contact with someone who might have the virus, the user receives a text message informing them and then instructing them to self-quarantine for 14 days.
However, the quarantine is not necessarily voluntary, depending on where you live. In some countries, phones have been used as a sort of house arrest ankle-bracelet that will notify authorities if the person being monitored leave the house for any reason.
These apps are being touted as the way to end the shut down in both Italy and the UK and it appears that officials are going to be taking things in that direction.
At face value, it may appear that this could be a useful strategy in preventing the spread of disease, but privacy advocates and tech experts are concerned that this information could be misused and that the unprecedented surveillance capabilities could be kept and held by corrupt governments long after the pandemic is over.
In a recent interview with Vice, NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden expressed his concerns about the coming surveillance program, calling it the “architecture of oppression.”
“Do you truly believe that when the first wave, this second wave, the 16th wave of the coronavirus is a long-forgotten memory, that these capabilities will not be kept? That these datasets will not be kept? No matter how it is being used, what’ is being built is the architecture of oppression,” Snowden said.
Snowden recognized that the virus was a serious threat and said that the intelligence community was well aware that it was only a matter of time before a massive pandemic crippled the country, even back when he was working in the NSA.
“There is nothing more foreseeable as a public health crisis in a world where we are just living on top of each other in crowded and polluted cities, than a pandemic. And every academic, every researcher who’s looked at this knew this was coming. And in fact, even intelligence agencies, I can tell you firsthand, because they used to read the reports had been planning for pandemics,” he said.
Snowden questioned the positive numbers that have come out of China in recent weeks and pointed out that the Chinese government has been credited with reducing the spread of the illness because they took such draconian measures during the lockdown.
Perhaps their extreme strategy is not working as well as they say it is, but since the government maintained tight control of any information coming out of the country, it is impossible to say for sure.
“If you’re looking at countries like China, where cases seem to have leveled off, how much can we trust that those numbers are actually true? I don’t think we can. Particularly, we see the Chinese government recently working to expel Western journalists at precisely this moment where we need credible independent warnings in this region,” Snowden said.
In a statement published on Friday, Apple and Google announced that they were teaming up in a rare partnership to develop compatible contact tracing apps, which they claim will work on an “opt-in” basis.
However, according to Bloomberg, the companies are planning to eventually build the contact tracing into the device’s updates.
Apple and Google insist that you will still be able to opt-out of the program if you don’t want to participate, but it is possible that rankings on these apps could be used to gain entry into grocery stores or larger businesses and events once the economy opens up again.
“As authoritarianism spreads, as emergency laws proliferate, as we sacrifice our rights, we also sacrifice our capability to arrest the slide into a less liberal and less free world,” Snowden warned.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 04/11/2020 – 20:40 - Bolsonaro Says Trump 'Wonder Drug' Will "Save 1000s Of Lives" In Brazil
Bolsonaro Says Trump ‘Wonder Drug’ Will “Save 1000s Of Lives” In Brazil
Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro thanked Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi this week for allowing raw materials to continue to flow into Brazil so they could maintain production of Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ), an anti-malaria drug, to treat patients of COVID-19, reported The Economic Times.
“We have more good news. As an outcome of my direct conversation with Prime Minister of India, we will receive, by Saturday, raw materials to continue our production of HCQ so that we can treat patients of COVID-19 as well as of Lupus, Malaria, and Arthritis. I thank Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the people of India for such timely help to the people of Brazil,” Bolsonaro stated.
“An honorable gesture that can help save the lives of many Brazilians, and which we will never forget,” Bolsonaro added.
HCQ is an anti-malarial drug that has been commonly used to treat lupus, arthritis, and other disorders which has been touted by President Trump. While clinical studies of the drug are still pending, there is compelling anecdotal evidence of the drug’s efficacy when combined with azithromycin (Z-Pac) and zinc sulfate has caused several countries to place them on their recommended treatment regimen for the virus.
President Trump is asked why he ‘promotes’ Hydroxychloroquine.
Trump: “I want to save lives. I don’t want it to be in a lab for the next year and a half as people are dying all over the place… and only CNN would ask that question. Fake News.”
— Benny (@bennyjohnson) April 5, 2020
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The Brazilian president said the drug’s effectiveness against the virus “could go down in history as having saved thousands of lives in Brazil.” This comes at a time when the South American country has recorded 18,176 confirmed cases and 957 deaths (as of Friday morning, April 10).
Bolsonaro said, “doctors, researchers, and heads of state from other countries” have told him that the drug had been used to treat “dozens of patients” and “all of them were saved.”
Bolsonaro wrote a letter to Modi last weekend, indicating that Hindu and Christian religious officials are comparing HCQ to “holy medicine” that must be shared with South America:
“Just as Lord Hanuman brought the holy medicine from the Himalayas to save the life of Lord Rama’s brother Lakshmana, and Jesus healed those who were sick and restored the sight to Bartimeu, India and Brazil will overcome this global crisis by joining forces and sharing blessings for the sake of all peoples.”
The Indian government released a statement that said Modi would “support” Brazil “in this difficult hour.” Both countries “agreed that their officials would remain in regular touch with respect to the COVID-19 situation and its emerging challenges.”
Tyler Durden
Sat, 04/11/2020 – 20:15 - Trump: Decision To Reopen Country 'Biggest Of My Life'
Trump: Decision To Reopen Country ‘Biggest Of My Life’
President Trump on Friday said that when and how to reopen the economy is the most difficult decision he’s ever had to make.
“I don’t know that I’ve had a bigger decision. But I’m going to surround myself with the greatest minds. Not only the greatest minds, but the greatest minds in numerous different businesses, including the business of politics and reason,” Trump told reporters.
“And we’re going to make a decision, and hopefully it’s going to be the right decision,” he added. “I will say this. I want to get it open as soon as we can.”
Pres. Trump says he will “surround myself with the greatest minds” to make decision on when to reopen country.
Asked what metrics he will use to make the call, he points at his head: “The metrics right here. That’s my metrics. That’s all I can do.” https://t.co/fRq5Ou4n42 pic.twitter.com/6gfC3FWJAX
— ABC News (@ABC) April 10, 2020
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Meanwhile, as much of the nation continues to ‘shelter in place’ and socially distance, Trump has come under pressure from those who argue that the virus isn’t as terrible as originally advertised, and that the death toll and societal costs of a second great depression would far outweigh the impact of reopening the economy and letting the virus – which mostly kills older people (yet leaves many survivors in bad condition) – run its course.
On the other hand, Trump is being advised by a cadre of establishment experts (“the greatest minds”) that reopening the economy would have devastating effects; overwhelming hospitals and placing the nation in an unprecedented health crisis.
Suspiciously, the same advisers (and the MSM) are telling us not to trust the ‘anecdotal’ efficacy of hydroxychloroquine and zinc – a treatment which has overwhelming evidence of success in coronavirus patients.
Thus, the virus has become a an ideological tug-of-war between those who want to keep the economy shuttered until a vaccine is found, and those who believe that the inevitable economic ruin will be a far worse fate. Going one step further are some who believe that the virus is a hoax – or a US creation from Fort Detrick/USAMRIID, that the lockdown is the beginning of a tyrannical NWO scheme, and that forced vaccinations will coincide with a transdermal vax-tracking digital certificates that will mean the difference between freedom and subjugation (and may be the ‘mark of the beast’). Maybe they’re right?
And just like that…the globalist governments got everyone to leave their jobs, stay at home, rationing of goods, took certain liberties & freedoms, silenced protests & gatherings…even places of worship. Next will be the forced vaccines.
— Malik Obama (@ObamaMalik) April 11, 2020
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If we see more scenes like the following play out across America, people are going to be grabbing more than just their pitchforks:
Video from Pastor Hamilton of King James Bible Baptist Church in Greenville, MS. Church tried the “drive-in” method of holding services & were targeted due to the Mayor issuing an order prohibiting such services. Watch as an officer tells the Pastor that his rights are suspended. pic.twitter.com/zLdT6Qd8ew
— Nick Short 🇺🇸 (@PoliticalShort) April 11, 2020
do riders know that they might be pulled off a SEPTA bus by 10 cops for not having a mask? pic.twitter.com/NnHXJC02E8
— Philly Transit Riders Union (@phillyTRU) April 10, 2020
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Tyler Durden
Sat, 04/11/2020 – 19:50 - The Fed's Balance Sheet: The Other Exponential Curve
The Fed’s Balance Sheet: The Other Exponential Curve
As the threat of COVID-19 keeps millions of Americans locked down at home, businesses and financial markets are suffering.
For example, a survey of small-business owners found that 51% did not believe they could survive the pandemic for longer than three months. At the same time, the S&P 500 posted its worst first-quarter on record.
In response to this havoc, the U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) is taking unprecedented steps to try and stabilize the economy. This includes, as Visual Capitalist’s Marcu Lu details below, a return to quantitative easing (QE), a controversial policy which involves adding more money into the banking system. To help us understand the implications of these actions, today’s chart illustrates the swelling balance sheet of the Fed.
How Does Quantitative Easing Work?
Expansionary monetary policies are used by central banks to foster economic growth by increasing the money supply and lowering interest rates. These mechanisms will, in theory, stimulate business investment as well as consumer spending.
However, in the current low interest-rate environment, the effectiveness of such policies is diminished. When short-term rates are already so close to zero, reducing them further will have little impact. To overcome this dilemma in 2008, central banks began experimenting with the unconventional monetary policy of QE to inject new money into the system by purchasing massive quantities of longer-term assets such as Treasury bonds.
These purchases are intended to increase the money supply while decreasing the supply of the longer-term assets. In theory, this should put upward pressure on these assets’ prices (due to less supply) and decrease their yield (interest rates have an inverse relationship with bond prices).
Navigating Uncharted Waters
QE falls under intense scrutiny due to a lack of empirical evidence so far.
Japan, known for its willingness to try unconventional monetary policies, was the first to try QE. Used to combat deflation in the early 2000s, Japan’s QE program was relatively small in scale, and saw mediocre results.
Fast forward to today, and QE is quickly becoming a cornerstone of the Fed’s policy toolkit. Over a span of just 12 years, QE programs have led to a Fed balance sheet of over $6 trillion, leaving some people with more questions than answers.
This is a big experiment. It’s something that’s never been done before.
– Kevin Logan, Chief Economist at HSBC
Critics of QE cite several dangers associated with “printing” trillions of dollars. Increasing the money supply can drive high inflation (though this has yet to be seen), while exceedingly low interest rates can encourage abnormal levels of consumer and business debt.
On the other hand, proponents will maintain that QE1 was successful in mitigating the fallout of the 2008 financial crisis. Some studies have also concluded that QE programs have reduced the 10-year yield in the U.S. by roughly 1.2 percentage points, thus serving their intended purpose.
Central banks … have little doubt that QE does operate in many ways like conventional monetary policy.
– Joseph E. Gagnon, Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics
Regardless of which side one takes, it’s clear there’s much more to learn about QE, especially in times of economic stress.
The Other Exponential Curve
When conducting QE, the securities the Fed buys make their way onto its balance sheet. Below we’ll look at how the Fed’s balance sheet has grown cumulatively with each iteration of QE:
-
QE1: $2.3 Trillion in Assets
The Fed’s first QE program ran from January 2009 to August 2010. The cornerstone of this program was the purchase of $1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS). -
QE2: $2.9 Trillion in Assets
The second QE program ran from November 2010 to June 2011, and included purchases of $600B in longer-term Treasury securities. -
Operation Twist (Maturity Extension Program)
To further decrease long-term rates, the Fed used the proceeds from its maturing short-term Treasury bills to purchase longer-term assets. These purchases, known as Operation Twist, did not expand the Fed’s balance sheet, and were concluded in December 2012. -
QE3: $4.5 Trillion in Assets
Beginning in September 2012, the Fed began purchasing MBS at a rate of $40B/month. In January 2013, this was supplemented with the purchase of long-term Treasury securities at a rate of $45B/month. Both programs were concluded in October 2014. -
Balance Sheet Normalization Program: $3.7 Trillion in Assets
The Fed began to wind-down its balance sheet in October 2017. Starting at an initial rate of $10B/month, the program called for a $10B/month increase every quarter, until a final reduction rate of $50B/month was reached. -
QE4: $6 Trillion and Counting
In October 2019, the Fed began purchasing Treasury bills at a rate of $60B/month to ease liquidity issues in overnight lending markets. While not officially a QE program, these purchases still affect the Fed’s balance sheet.
After the COVID-19 pandemic hit U.S. shores, however, the Fed pulled out all the stops. It cut its target interest rate to zero for the first time ever, injected $1.5 trillion into the economy (with more stimulus to come), and reduced the overnight reserve requirement to zero.
Despite receiving little attention in the media, this third measure may be the most significant. For protection against bank runs, U.S. banks have historically been required to hold 10% of their liabilities in cash reserves. Under QE4, this requirement no longer stands.
No End in Sight
Now that the Fed is undertaking its most aggressive QE program yet, it’s a tough guess as to when equilibrium will return, if ever.
After nearly two years of draw-downs, Fed assets fell by just $0.7 trillion—in a matter of weeks, however, this progress was completely retraced.
QE4 is showing that what goes up, may not necessarily come down.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 04/11/2020 – 19:25 -
- "Do It For Your Big Momma" – US Surgeon General Slammed For Telling Black Americans To Stop Drinking, Doing Drugs
“Do It For Your Big Momma” – US Surgeon General Slammed For Telling Black Americans To Stop Drinking, Doing Drugs
Surgeon General Jerome Adams, who is African American, is under serious fire from all sides today after he appeared to single-out communities of color for not following President Trump’s coronavirus guidelines (after widespread liberal media coverage of the inequities of the virus’ impact on low income black and brown families).
Specifically, Adams told Americans of color that they need to “step up” to stop the spread of COVID-19, warning that “social ills” were likely a major factor in why the outbreak has killed twice as many black and Latino people than white Americans.
The nation’s top doctor said on Friday, during the daily coronavirus taskforce briefing, that:
“We need you to do this if not for yourself than for your abuela. Do it for your granddaddy, do it for your big momma, do it for your poppop,” while suggesting that black and Latino families “avoid alcohol, tobacco and drugs.“
As The Daily Mail details, Adams added the “chronic burden of medical ills” among Americans of color is making those communities less resilient to the “ravages” of COVID-19.
However, it seems while Adams message may have been both factual and heart-felt, members of the black community are calling out the Surgeon General for “pandering” to them with his use of slang and also for his “offensive” instruction that those specific communities to stop drinking and smoking during this pandemic.
“The surgeon general telling black folks not to drink and smoke and do it for ya “paa paa and big momma”. Where they get this guy from? How dumb do they think we are with this? How bout suggesting that EVERYONE cut back? Let’s not do that ok?” TV host and actress Claudia Jordan said.
One man on Twitter, David DeLoatch, said:
“Let me tell a lot of you something, we don’t talk the way movies, songs, and the media portrays us. The Surgeon General is trying to relate to a life he never lived, listen to his voice and they way he speaks. He has never called anyone “big momma,” and neither have I.”
Other questioned Adams’ word choice, writing:
‘As if people wouldn’t understand him if he said, “Do it for your grandparents”?’
Some bashed him for using ‘stereotypical ethnic names for our relative’. And activist Blaine Hardaway used the opportunity to take a shot at the president:
“I really would like to say I’m surprised but of course I’m not. Trump sent the only black guy on his team out to chastise black and Latino people for smoking and drinking, as if that’s the reason our communities are predisposed to this virus. Just disgusting.”
Adams later tried to explain his comments after PBS NewsHour’s Yamiche Alcindor pressed him later in the briefing:
“That was not meant to be offensive,” Adams said.
“That’s the language that we use and I use and we need to continue to target our outreach to those communities.”
Adams concluded with the uncomfortable fact-bomb that “people of color experience both more likely exposure to COVID-19 and increased complications from it.”
Tyler Durden
Sat, 04/11/2020 – 19:00 - Bloomberg Praises "Uninterpretable" Gilead Study While Bashing Trump "Miracle Drug" Hydroxychloroquine
Bloomberg Praises “Uninterpretable” Gilead Study While Bashing Trump “Miracle Drug” Hydroxychloroquine
With a vaccine still a year to 18 months away, and various treatments for COVID-19 in early-stage testing (in New York City, some patients are being given Trump-approved hydroxycloroquine, a medication typically used to treat lupus and malaria), it’s still unclear when exactly the world can expect a broadly effective treatment to liberate humanity from its fear of potentially lethal infection.
Much, including the virus’s exact mortality rate on a global scale, remains undetermined when it comes to the coronavirus. Most research comes with an asterisk next to it noting that it is ‘preliminary’ or has not been ‘peer-reviewed’. We are all learning about this new virus as we go, and yet, as deaths continue to accelerate in the US and the UK, some readers are desperate for good news about the treatment options, even if there isn’t really any good news to share.
But doesn’t mean the press can’t utilize certain tricks of the trade to try and amplify the apparent importance of what are, in reality, relatively minor developments.
That’s what Bloomberg did on Saturday in a story about the race for a vaccine, and another quoting findings from a ‘preliminary’ study that has little to no actual merit.
The lead scientist on a team working to develop a vaccine in the UK told the British press that her team might have a vaccine ready by September, roughly a 6 months to a year faster than initially believed.
Professor of Vaccinology at Oxford University Sarah Gilbert said Saturday that she is “80% confident” the vaccine would work, and could be ready by September, even as many other experts have warned the process could take 18 months.
In the case of the Oxford team, however, “it’s not just a hunch, and as every week goes by we have more data to look at,” Gilbert told the London newspaper.
Oh, it’s not just a hunch? Well then, that’s great. We’ll just take your word for it.
In a different report, Bloomberg heralded that a Gilead preliminary study carried out in North America had shown promise for its remdesivir antiviral, a broad-spectrum anti-viral shown to be effective against other coronaviruses, and has been heralded by the press as one of the most highly anticipated treatments for coronavirus.
A study involving 56 patients (minus 7 whose data were excluded from the results for one reason or another) found that 68% saw their condition improve on the drug.
The report published in the New England Journal of Medicine tracked 53 people in the U.S., Europe and Canada who needed respiratory support, with about half receiving mechanical ventilation and four on a heart-lung by-pass machine. Eight additional patients were left out of the analysis: one due to a dosing error and seven because no information was available on how they fared.
All received remdesivir for up to 10 days on a compassionate use basis, a program that allows people to use unapproved medicines when no other treatment options are available. Over 18 days, 68% of the patients improved, with 17 of the 30 patients on mechanical ventilation being able to get off the breathing device. Almost half of the patients studied were ultimately discharged, while 13% died. Mortality was highest among those who were on a ventilator, with 18% of them dying.
But how promising is this study, really? Is it that far removed from the small studies of hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine carried out in France and China, which showed that drug to be modestly effective with little harm to the patient (unless they drink the fish-tank cleaner). One researcher even admits that the study isn’t enough to draw any kind of definitive conclusion, and BBG even let it slip that Gilead even helped interpret the study’s results.
“We cannot draw definitive conclusions from these data, but the observations from this group of hospitalized patients who received remdesivir are hopeful,” said lead author Jonathan Grein, director of hospital epidemiology at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles, in a statement from Gilead. The Foster City, California-based company provided the medication and also helped analyze the results.
And in the very next paragraph, BBG criticizes hydroxychloroquine and the “tiny French study” whose methodology “has been heavily criticized” by many experts.
As one “skeptic” who read the study reportedly said, the data from the paper are “almost uninterpretable.”
“The data from this paper are almost uninterpretable,” Stephen Evans, a professor of pharmacoepidemiology at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said in an emailed statement. “There is some evidence suggesting efficacy, but we simply do not know what would have happened to these patients had they not been given the drug.”
Aside from simply determining whether the medication “works” or not, these comprehensive studies are supposed to shed some light on how to use the medication in the most safe and effective way, like when is the best time to start the course – in terms of the disease’s progression.
“In studying remdesivir, the question is not just whether it is safe and effective against Covid-19, but in which patients it shows activity, how long should they receive treatment and at what stage of their disease would treatment be most beneficial,” said Daniel O’Day, Gilead’s chairman and chief executive officer. “Many answers are needed, which is why we need multiple types of studies involving many types of patients.”
Some of these answers will emerge in the coming weeks with the release of initial data from the various clinical trials, O’Day said Friday in an open letter sent via email.
This might be a typo or a mistake, but after reporting that researchers were able to ramp up research on remdesivir so quickly because it had recently been studied for efficacy against ebola (it was determined to be safe but ineffective). However, BBG claims that 1 in 4 patients suffered serious side effects like organ malfunction or acute kidney damage.
About one in four patients on the medicine experienced severe side effects, including multiple-organ dysfunction syndrome, septic shock, acute kidney injury and low blood pressure. Another 23% showed signs of liver damage on laboratory tests. Four patients had to stop receiving infusions of the drug entirely.
Remdesivir was considered to be the most promising therapeutic candidate based on its broad antiviral spectrum, and existing data based on human and animal studies, a World Health Organization panel said in January. The medication was developed initially for Ebola and studied in patients in Eastern Congo.
If it works well, one issue will be whether there is enough of a supply of the drug, especially if the epidemic is still raging. Gilead has been working all-out to bolster supply of the hard-to-make medicine. It said earlier this month that it hopes to to have 500,000 treatment courses by October, and more than 1 million by year-end. Production time has also been accelerated to six months from one year.
In what world is that a “safe” standard?
Tyler Durden
Sat, 04/11/2020 – 18:35 - Is It Time For A New Direction?
Is It Time For A New Direction?
Authored by Jacob Hornberger via The Future of Freedom Foundation,
If Americans are not doing some serious soul-searching in the midst of this crisis, they need to start. Where America goes from here is not some sort of esoteric debate. What we do at this point has life or death consequences. Get it wrong, and suffer more death, suffering, and impoverishment. Get it right, and America moves toward life, health, liberty, peace, prosperity, and harmony.
What everyone needs to recognize is that they are facing a choice of systems, not a choice of people. Either stick with the same systems or switch over to new systems. That’s the choice now facing the American people.
Let’s examine four systems under which we currently live and have lived for decades.
America’s economic system
This is a centrally planned and centrally managed system run by the federal government. Its central aim is to “wage war on poverty” by forcibly taking money from everyone and redistributing it to people in need, such as the elderly and the poor. It is based on massive confiscation of income and wealth by the Internal Revenue Service, in the form of income taxes and payroll taxes.
America’s healthcare system
This too is a centrally planned and centrally managed system run by the federal government. It is based on big, powerful central planning agencies like as the Centers for Disease Control and the FDA, as well as massive socialist programs like Medicare and Medicaid, both of which are responsible for foisting a never-ending healthcare crisis onto the American people consisting of ever-increasing healthcare costs that have bankrupted people or sent them into deep debt.
America’s monetary system
This too is a centrally planned and centrally managed system run by the federal government, specifically the Federal Reserve. From its beginning in 1913, its job has been to print up ever-increasing quantities of paper money to enable the federal government to fund the ever-increasing expenditures of the welfare-warfare state way of life.
America’s system of empire and foreign intervention
This too is a centrally planned and centrally managed system by the national-security branch of the federal government. Its job is to wreak death and destruction among foreigners and, in the process, bring ever-increasing amounts of taxpayer-funded largess to its army of well-heeled “defense” contractors, which are composed of former members of the national-security establishment.
Consequences of central planning
How are all these systems working out? Most, if not all, people would agree that they are not working out well at all. Together, they have either bankrupted people through taxes or debts or left millions of people without even enough savings to get them through a couple of months of unemployment.
And guess who is now paying the biggest price for the coronavirus crisis — seniors and the poor. That’s because the FDA, in all its central planning wisdom, prohibited the private sector from producing test kits that would have, without any doubt, significantly reduced the coronavirus infection rate.
How can they lower the infection rate if they don’t know who has the virus, especially since people who have the virus are infecting people for about a week before they show any symptoms? A massive number of cheap testing kits would have enabled people to ferret out quickly and early who was infected, enabling everyone else to continue working.
Given that their dysfunctional healthcare system has totally failed to stem the crisis, they have resorted to tyranny and oppression through a mandatory shutdown of the economy, sending millions of people into unemployment and even bankruptcy.
To relieve the financial distress from their destruction of people’s livelihoods, they are resorting to their dysfunctional monetary system. The Federal Reserve is now printing money like it was going out of style. Does anyone really believe that printing trillions of dollars is a way to relieve economic distress? It’s just another form of taxation, one that plunders and loots people, specially the elderly and the poor, through the massive devaluation of their money.
Meanwhile, their fourth dysfunctional system is ensuring that the national-security establishment will suffer no budget cuts whatsoever in order to enable to maintain its oversees machinery of empire and intervention.
Isn’t that ironic? Their four systems of central planning and management are responsible for massive death, suffering, and impoverishment not only here at home but also abroad.
A different direction
If you like how all these dysfunctional systems have worked out, are working out, and will continue to work out into the future, just continue supporting their existence.
But make no mistake: There is a choice to be made here because there are four systems that are opposite to the four systems under which we are are suffering. These four systems are as follows:
A free-market economic system
Under this system, everyone keeps everything he earns — 100 percent, which enables everyone to save lots of money. No income taxation and no IRS. It’s a system based on 100 percent voluntary charity. This was America’s founding economic system for more than 100 years. It produced the wealthiest and most charitable society in history.
A free-market healthcare system
Under this system, the private sector and the free market are entirely responsive for healthcare. No more having to get permission from federal bureaucrats to produce test kits or anything else because the federal government will play no role whatsoever in healthcare. A total separation of healthcare and the state, just as our ancestors had the wisdom to separate church and state. This was America’s founding healthcare system and last for more than 100 years. It produced the finest healthcare system in history, one in which healthcare costs were cheap and affordable and in which doctors and hospitals treated the poor for free on a purely voluntary basis.
A free-market monetary system
Under this system, the free market determines the currency that is going to be used. No more Federal Reserve and no more legal-tender laws. For more than 100 years, America had the finest monetary system in history, one based on gold coins and silver coins. A free-market monetary system would improve upon that concept.
A limited-government republic with a small, basic military force.
No more national-security state and no more foreign military bases and foreign interventionism. No more sanctions, embargoes, invasions, occupations, wars of aggression, torture, state-sponsored assassinations, secret mass surveillance, and other destruction of civil liberties. America was founded as a limited-government republic, which lasted for more than 100 years.
The same old direction versus a new direction
So there you have it: Four completely different systems from which to choose. Americans should choose wisely. Your lives, health, and financial well-being and those of your loved ones, friends, and neighbors depend on it.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 04/11/2020 – 18:10 - "Papers, Please!" Fauci Agrees Gates' "COVID Immunity Card" Idea "Has Merit"
“Papers, Please!” Fauci Agrees Gates’ “COVID Immunity Card” Idea “Has Merit”
Talks of COVID immunity cards have certainly been a hot subject in the last several weeks from high-ranking Western officials. It could be the means to reopen crashed economies seen across Europe and the US.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, America’s top infectious disease expert, told CNN “New Day” host Alisyn Camerota that people could soon carry ‘cards’ proving their immunity to COVID-19.
“Can you imagine a time where Americans carry certificates of immunity?” Camerota asked Fauci during an interview Friday.
“You know, that’s possible,” Fauci responded.
“It’s one of those things that we talk about when we want to make sure that we know who the vulnerable people are and not.”
Dr. Anthony Fauci: “Within a period of a week or so, we’re going to have a rather large number of [antibody] tests that are available.”https://t.co/Klsiktp7fq pic.twitter.com/9LdH5CHOFc
— New Day (@NewDay) April 10, 2020
He continued, “This is something that’s being discussed. I think it might actually have some merit, under certain circumstances.”
The rollout of immunity cards would be dependent on the success of antibody testing, which could be unveiled in April:
“If their antibody test is positive, one can formulate strategies about whether or not they would be at risk or vulnerable to getting re-infected,” Fauci said.
We noted the proposal of immunity cards first appeared in Europe, with Germany, Italy, and the UK all calling for some form of documentation that would allow people who were immune to the disease to travel freely. Imagine stepping into an airport, and an official says, “papers please!” – while referring to a passport, you might also need your COVID immunity card.
Talk of these specialized health passports surfaced in American politics several weeks ago when House Democratic Caucus Chairman Mike Stewart called on Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee to implement an “Immunity Certificate” for first responders and healthcare professionals. Last week, Senator Bill Cassidy pitched the creation of an online registry that would help to identify who tested positive and negative.
And for more confirmation that immunity passports are going to be the next big thing in the Western world, or maybe across the globe. Here is Bill Gates on March 24, giving a 50-minute interview to Chris Anderson, the Curator of TED, the non-profit that runs the TED Talks.
Right at 34:14, Gates discussed how the future in a post-corona world would be. He said:
Eventually what we’ll have to have is certificates of who’s a recovered person, who’s a vaccinated person…
…Because you don’t want people moving around the world where you’ll have some countries that won’t have it under control, sadly.
We’ve noted, immunity passes and “intermittent lockdowns” could become a reality in the months or quarters ahead and last for some time -– as the virologists at JPMorgan believe the virus could unfold in several waves, similar to 1918 Spanish flu pandemic.
“Here, JPM believes that next waves could be at a smaller amplitude with lower mortality rate potential compared to the current first wave. This is due to (1) strong risk awareness among stakeholders; (2) faster government response potential at the infection tipping point; and (3) enhanced risk manual at the containment stage. However, even a substantially reduced amplitude of wave 2 (and 3 and 4), suggest that ongoing economic shutdowns will be a recurring feature of life for quarters if not years!” we said last week.
And as Gates said: “So eventually there will be this digital immunity proof that will help facilitate the global reopening up.” It appears Fauci and Gates are on the same page.
In a post-corona world, the surveillance state will thrive as your freedoms erode. Big Brother is watching you, and the new means of control is through immunity cards.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 04/11/2020 – 17:45 - "Everything That Is Wrong With America, In One Image"
“Everything That Is Wrong With America, In One Image”
At the end of January, just as China was admitting the full extent of the Wu Flu pandemic it had kept under wraps for weeks in hopes it could get away with not shutting its economy even if it meant tens of thousands dead (in the end, it failed) we reported that since 1990 the top 1% has bought $1.2 trillion of equities and mutual funds while the rest, or 99% of the population, had sold $1 trillion. And, confirming what we discussed in “The Rich Have Assets, The Poor Have Debt“, based on the Federal Reserve’s Distributional Financial Accounts (DFAs), the concentration of household equity ownership among the wealthiest households is at an all-time high.
But then an unexpected thing happened: stocks crashed, with the S&P briefly losing as much as 35% as traders freaked out that the global coronavirus pandemic would result in a world that is shut down for months, if not quarters, resulting in profit devastation. That’s when the Fed stepped in, and after first unleashing a bazooka, then a “nuclear bomb” meant to crush bond shorts, and finally a super nuke where the Fed would go so far as bailout all those companies that had purchased trillions in stocks while issuing BBB-rated grade which are now being downgraded in record amounts, i.e., the Fed would buy “fallen angel” junk bonds, Jerome Powell ensured that the 1% is well on its way to being made whole – in other words the superrrich are now benefiting from the biggest bailout in history, a topic which sparked an unprecedented debate on CNBC when sparks flew between VC investor Chamath Palihapitiya (himself a billionaire) and anchor Scott Wapner, with the former saying billionaires and companies should be allowed to fail (he is absolutely right – after all that’s what the Chapter 11 process is for as we have been saying for months), while the latter sparking outrage for inexplicably claiming that billionaires are just as desperately in need of rescuing by the money printer (watch the full clash here).
In short, it was a momentuous week, one in which we learned that the Fed will do anything – even if it means destroy the dollar completely (just watch the price of gold for Powell’s progress in this regard) – to rescue the super rich, while everyone else was getting destroyed. And nothing capture the zeitgeist better than the following screen grab courtesy of Justin Horwitz who aptly titled the following tweet “Everything that is wrong with America, in one image.“
To this all we can add is: American Middle Class 0 – Federal Reserve 6,083,131,000,000.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 04/11/2020 – 17:20 - Tesla Furloughs Half Of Its Entire US Sales And Delivery Staff
Tesla Furloughs Half Of Its Entire US Sales And Delivery Staff
The impacts of Tesla’s previously announced furloughs are finally starting rear their heads – in a big way. The company announced on Friday that about half of the company’s entire U.S. sales and delivery staff would be affected, according to CNBC.
Workers in sales and deliveries were furloughed by their rank and their tenure, not on the basis of their performance. Anyone with entry-level roles or lower sales quotas each quarter have all been furloughed, according to sources at Tesla. Employees in senior sales and delivery roles who have been with the company for less than two years have also been furloughed.
One furloughed employee worried that permanent layoffs could be next as a way for Tesla to continue cost cutting that began in 2019. As a reminder, Tesla said in early 2019 it was going to shift to “online only sales” before walking back those comments just weeks later.
Recall, we first reported about 3 days ago that Tesla announced it was going to be furloughing all non-essential workers and implementing salary cuts due to the very same coronavirus outbreak that CEO Elon Musk once publicly labeled as “dumb”.
In true “carrot on a string” fashion, the company also disclosed at the same time that it expected to resume normal operations on May 4, “barring any significant changes”.
Recall, Tesla had suspended production at Fremont and in New York on March 24. The Fremont suspension came after a spat with the Alameda County Sheriff’s department about whether or not Tesla was an “essential” business. It also came 8 days after Musk told his workers they were “more likely to die in a car crash” than from coronavirus.
Two days after Tesla’s delayed close, on March 26, it was reported that two Tesla employees had tested positive for coronavirus.
According to an email sent to U.S. employees by in-house counsel Valerie Capers Workman, workers pay is going to be cut 10%, directors will have their salaries cut by 20% and VP salaries will be cut by 30%, the company said.
Tesla said that pay for salaried employees would be reduced on April 13 and that cuts would remain in place until the end of the second quarter, despite the company’s plans to re-open in early May.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 04/11/2020 – 16:55
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