Dec 12

Today’s News 12th December 2021

  • A Judicial Kidnapping
    A Judicial Kidnapping

    Authored by John Pilger via ConsortiumNews.com,

    Sartre’s words should echo in all our minds following the grotesque decision of Britain’s High Court to extradite Julian Assange to the United States where he faces “a living death”. This is his punishment for the crime of authentic, accurate, courageous, vital journalism.

    Miscarriage of justice is an inadequate term in these circumstances. It took the bewigged courtiers of Britain’s ancien regime just nine minutes on Friday to uphold an American appeal against a District Court judge’s acceptance in January of a cataract of evidence that hell on earth awaited Assange across the Atlantic: a hell in which, it was expertly predicted, he would find a way to take his own life.

    Volumes of witness by people of distinction, who examined and studied Julian and diagnosed his autism and his Asperger’s Syndrome and revealed that he had already come within an ace of killing himself at Belmarsh prison, Britain’s very own hell, were ignored.

    The recent confession of a crucial FBI informant and prosecution stooge, a fraudster and serial liar, that he had fabricated his evidence against Julian was ignored. The revelation that the Spanish-run security firm at the Ecuadorean embassy in London, where Julian had been granted political refuge, was a CIA front that spied on Julian’s lawyers and doctors and confidants (myself included) – that, too, was ignored.

    The recent journalistic disclosure, repeated graphically by defense counsel before the High Court in October, that the CIA had planned to murder Julian in London – even that was ignored. Each of these “matters”, as lawyers like to say, was enough on its own for a judge upholding the law to throw out the disgraceful case mounted against Assange by a corrupt US Department of Justice and their hired guns in Britain. Julian’s state of mind, bellowed James Lewis, QC, America’s man at the Old Bailey last year, was no more than “malingering” – an archaic Victorian term used to deny the very existence of mental illness.

    To Lewis, almost every defense witness, including those who described from the depth of their experience and knowledge, the barbaric American prison system, was to be interrupted, abused, discredited. Sitting behind him, passing him notes, was his American conductor: young, short-haired, clearly an Ivy League man on the rise.

    Nine Minutes of Infamy

    In their nine minutes of dismissal of journalist Assange’s fate, two of Britain’s most senior judges, including Lord Chief Justice Ian Burnett (a lifelong buddy of Sir Alan Duncan, Boris Johnson’s former foreign minister who arranged Assange’s brutal police kidnapping from the Ecuadorean embassy) referred in their summary judgment to not one of a litany of truths that had struggled to be heard in a lower court presided over by a weirdly hostile judge, Vanessa Baraitser.

    Her insulting behaviour towards a clearly stricken Assange, struggling through a fog of prison-dispensed medication to remember his name, is unforgettable.

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    What was truly shocking Friday was that the High Court judges – Lord Burnett and Lord Justice Timothy Holroyde, who read out their words – showed no hesitation in sending Julian to his death, living or otherwise. They offered no mitigation, no suggestion that they had agonized over legalities or even basic morality.

    Their ruling in favor, if not on behalf of the United States, is based squarely on transparently fraudulent “assurances” scrabbled together by the Biden administration when it looked in January like justice might prevail.

    These “assurances” are that once in American custody, Assange will not be subject to the Orwellian SAMS – Special Administrative Measures – which would make him an un-person; that he will not be imprisoned at ADX Florence, a prison in Colorado long condemned by jurists and human rights groups as illegal: “a pit of punishment and disappearance”; that he can be transferred to an Australian prison to finish his sentence there.

    The absurdity lies in what the judges omitted to say. In offering its “assurances”, the US reserves the right not to guarantee anything should Assange do something that displeases his jailers. In other words, as Amnesty has pointed out, it reserves the right to break any promise.

    There are abundant examples of the US doing just that. As investigative journalist Richard Medhurst revealed last month, David Mendoza Herrarte was extradited from Spain to the U.S. on the “promise” that he would serve his sentence in Spain. The Spanish courts regarded this as a binding condition.

    “Classified documents reveal the diplomatic assurances given by the US Embassy in Madrid and how the U.S. violated the conditions of the extradition,” wrote Medhurst. “Mendoza spent six years in the U.S. trying to return to Spain. Court documents show the United States denied his transfer application multiple times.”

    Stella Moris, Julian Assange’s partner, addressing his supporters on Oct 28, during the U.S. appeal hearing in London. (Don’t Extradite Assange Campaign)

    The High Court judges, who were aware of the Mendoza case and of Washington’s habitual duplicity, describe the “assurances” – not to be beastly to Julian Assange – as a “solemn undertaking offered by one government to another.”

    The Imperial Way

    This article would stretch into infinity if I listed the times the rapacious United States has broken “solemn undertakings” to governments, such as treaties that are summarily torn up and civil wars that are fueled. It is the way Washington has ruled the world, and before it Britain: the way of imperial power, as history teaches us. It is this institutional lying and duplicity that Julian Assange brought into the open and in so doing performed perhaps the greatest public service of any journalist in modern times.

    Julian himself has been a prisoner of lying governments for more than a decade now. During these long years, I have sat in many courts as the United States has sought to manipulate the law to silence him and WikiLeaks. This reached a bizarre moment when, in the tiny Ecuadorean embassy, he and I were forced to flatten ourselves against a wall, each with a notepad in which we conversed, taking care to shield what we had written to each other from the ubiquitous spy cameras – installed, as we now know, by a proxy of the CIA, the world’s most enduring criminal organization.

    Look at Ourselves

    This brings me to the quotation at the top of this article: “Let us look at ourselves, if we have the courage, to see what is happening.”

    Jean-Paul Sartre wrote this in his preface to Franz Fannon’s The Wretched of the Earth, the classic study of how colonized and seduced and coerced and, yes, craven peoples do the bidding of the powerful.

    Who among us is prepared to stand up rather than remain mere bystanders to an epic travesty such as the judicial kidnapping of Julian Assange? What is at stake is both a courageous man’s life and, if we remain silent, the conquest of our intellects and sense of right and wrong: indeed our very humanity.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/11/2021 – 23:30

  • Hackers Blamed For Cream Cheese Shortage Currently Afflicting The US
    Hackers Blamed For Cream Cheese Shortage Currently Afflicting The US

    Some are calling it the most important news story in the US right now. Thanks to a cyber attack that crippled Schreiber Foods, the largest cream cheese manufacturer in the US, for a few days back in October (thanks, Putin), the US is now struggling with a shortage of schmear, which is particularly troubling for New Yorkers, who are known to enjoy a toasted bagel with a hefty serving of the stuff (perhaps along with some lox and capers).

    Without a reliable source of cream cheese, millions of bagel-loving Big Apple residents are probably contemplating consuming their favorite breakfast with butter and jam, like an Englishman.

    What’s worse, the hackers who carried out the attack on Schreiber knew enough to time the shut down to coincide with the busiest season for cream cheese demand. During the holidays, Americans use cream cheese to bake cakes and treats, and new holiday flavors like Pumpkin Spice cream cheese (yeah, that’s a real thing) go flying off the shelves. And October is the last month for companies like Schreiber (which has few rivals) to ensure they have enough stock to last the season.

    Since cream cheese is made fresh, there are no reserves to draw from. According to Bloomberg, it’s just one more example of how (presumably Russian-backed) hackers have contributed to the chaos afflicting the American food supply, as well as the supply of certain foodstuffs around the world.

    This in turn contributes to the inflationary pressures plaguing the US, where – according to Friday’s landmark CPI report – prices are rising at 6.8% YoY, their fastest pace since 1982.

    Schreiber isn’t the only food-related company to be targeted by hackers: they also targeted meat giant JBS and an Iowa grain cooperative this year.

    According to Andrew Novakovic, an agricultural economist at Cornell University, cream cheese is “particularly vulnerable” to supply chain issues. Some manufacturers have had problems sourcing starch, a thickening agent, as well as packaging like plastic film and cardboard boxes.

    Additionally, labor shortages such as a shortage of truck drivers is hitting the dairy industry particularly hard because drivers need an extra license to pick up milk from farms.

    Yet another example of how the US’s own bureaucratic red tape is helping to exacerbate the labor shortage.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/11/2021 – 23:00

  • Joe Biden, Let's Not Go To War
    Joe Biden, Let’s Not Go To War

    Authored by Sheldon Richman via The Libertarian Institute,

    Here’s a good idea: let’s not go to war against Russia. Let’s not even rattle a saber at Russia (or China, for that matter) because even wars that no one really wants can be blundered into. Many losers would be left in the aftermath, even if nuclear weapons were kept out of sight, but no one would win. So as that smart Defense Department computer says in the 1983 movie WarGames, “The only winning move is not to play.”

    The crisis du jour is Ukraine; before that, it was Georgia, both former Soviet republics. For some inexplicable reason, Russia’s rulers get nervous when the US foreign policy elite treats Russian historical security concerns as of no consequence. Could it have something to do with the several invasions of Russia through Eastern Europe in the past? Jeez, from the way the irrational Russians behave, you’d think their American counterparts never invoked US security concerns (usually bogus) as a reason for military action. As if…

    But maybe it is time for America’s rulers to take Russian worries into consideration. Even for those of us who are no fans of Vladimir Putin and the government he runs, this seems like good advice – if for no other reason than narrow American self-interest. At least, that’s how it looks from the view of regular Americans, who might appreciate for a change what Adam Smith described as “peace, easy taxes, and a tolerable administration of justice.”

    Anyone who has paid attention to US foreign policy since the peaceful dissolution of the Soviet Union and its Warsaw Pact alliance, 1989-91, would realize that America’s bipartisan foreign-policy elite has taken precisely the wrong tack by baiting nervous Russian nationalists at every turn. Despite promises to the contrary, that elite has led the charge to add members to the NATO alliance, taking the anti-Soviet military and political organization right up to the Russian border and staging military exercises uncomfortably close. The U.S. has also sold weapons systems to NATO-member Poland, formerly a member of the Warsaw Pact.

    Putin insists that NATO not expand any further, but Biden told him to shut up. The US position is that NATO’s inclusion of former Soviet possessions is purely an alliance affair. Meanwhile, Biden threatens more harsh economic sanctions and even more US troops to Eastern Europe if Putin doesn’t acquiesce by, among other things, moving his troops away from the Russia-Ukraine border.

    Let’s also recall that in 2014 the U.S. stood behind a neo-Nazi-supported coup against an elected, Russian-friendly president in Ukraine, knowing full well how the Russians would react. Fearing US/NATO encroachment, Putin’s government annexed Crimea with its strategic warm-water Black Sea naval base, which has been part of the Russian security system for over 200 years. Nevertheless, and most relevant to today’s heightened tensions, Putin declined an opportunity to annex eastern Ukraine (the Donbass region full of ethnic Russians ) when a majority there voted for independence from Kiev.

    You didn’t have to know too much about European history to see how provocative the US-sponsored regime change in Ukraine would be. To make matters worse, Ukraine and Georgia have become de facto NATO members, but only because the U.S. elite has not yet convinced its European counterparts to give those two former Soviet republics official membership. That, however, hasn’t stopped Washington from extending a security guarantee to Ukraine that is all too much like the one that NATO members extend to one another. Biden has just reinforced that guarantee.

    Which Americans are ready to die for Kiev? For some reason it’s easy for Americans, who can be as nationalistically self-centered as anyone, to assume that any ratcheting up of tensions with Russia must be the Russians’ fault.

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    The establishment media have no problem presenting this as an indisputable fact. But how do they know it’s true? They never furnish evidence. Foreign-policy expert Ted Galen Carpenter of the Cato Institute has a much more evidence-bound take:

    Moscow’s behavior has been more a reaction to aggressive moves that the United States and its Ukrainian client have already taken than it is evidence of offensive intent. Russian leaders have viewed the steady expansion of NATO’s membership and military presence eastward toward Russia’s border since the late 1990s suspiciously and they have considered Washington’s growing strategic love affair with Kiev as especially provocative.

    Moreover, Carpenter adds,

    Ukraine’s own policies have become dangerously bellicose. The government’s official security doctrine adopted earlier this year, for example, focuses on retaking Crimea, the peninsula that Russia annexed in 2014 following the West’s campaign that helped demonstrators overthrow Ukraine’s elected, pro-Russian president. Statements by President Volodymyr Zelensky and other leaders have been disturbingly bellicose, and Ukraine’s own military deployments have further destabilized an already fragile situation.

    Carpenter points out that while the United States is far more powerful than Russia in conventional terms, “unless the United States and its allies are willing to wage an all-out war against Russia, an armed conflict confined to Ukraine (and perhaps some adjacent territories), would diminish much of that advantage. Russian forces would be operating close to home, with relatively short supply and communications lines. US forces would be operating far from home with extremely stressed lines. In other words, there is no certainty that the US would prevail in such a conflict.”

    Would the Biden administration then back down or go nuclear? Who is eager to find out? Those considerations aside, the U.S. government should simply stop fanning the Russophobic flames simply because a war would be incredibly stupid.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/11/2021 – 22:30

  • EA Games Tells Kyle Rittenhouse His Name Could "Harm" Other Gamers
    EA Games Tells Kyle Rittenhouse His Name Could “Harm” Other Gamers

    Everywhere he goes (on the Internet, and in real life), Kyle Rittenhouse appears to be facing harassment from both individuals and organizations who want to take it into their own hands to hold him “accountable”, despite the fact that he was acquitted by a jury of his peers.

    Just the other day, the social-media platform TikTok (a Chinese-controlled platform that has been caught pushing pro-CCP propaganda to impressionable American teens) censored a pro-Rittenhouse video, while allowing the endless stream of “Toks” featuring scantily clad teenage and underage girls engaging in sexually suggestive behavior to continue with little interruption.

    Shortly after that incident, Rittenhouse himself received a warning from EA Games for featuring language that could “harm others or negatively disrupt the game”, according to an email shared by Rittenhouse on his platform.

    The language in question? Rittenhouse’s own name, which is featured in an online handle.

    Rittenhouse shared part of the email on his Instagram story.

    Interestingly, Rittenhouse didn’t even use his name on EAs own online platform, but rather the company found that he used it on Steam, the world’s largest PC games distribution service which players use to buy and download games created by different developers. The name, EA’s email continued, is an “inappropriate reference” to “violence, terror, and tragic events.”

    So, put another way, EA doesn’t even want Rittenhouse buying its games, unless he does so anonymously.

    The “Positive Play Charter” that Rittenhouse is accused of violating reads like this: “an updated set of community guidelines with clear consequences for players who engage in racist, sexist, homophobic, and abusive acts in our games and channels.” Introduced last June, the company said at the time that it had removed more than 3.5K instances of “inappropriate and hurtful names and language” in the weeks leading up to its introduction.

    The incident harkened back to a moment during the Rittenhouse trial, where the prosecution suggested he might have shot the three men (two of which were killed) because of his experience playing video games like “Call of Duty”.

    “It’s just a video game,” Rittenhouse famously replied. “It’s not real life.”

    We wonder how EA might react if Rittenhouse’s supports decided to call for a boycott of its games and other products?

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/11/2021 – 22:00

  • "When Science Mixes With Politics, All We Get Is Politics…"
    “When Science Mixes With Politics, All We Get Is Politics…”

    Authored by Robert Arvay via AmericanThinker.com,

    I just finished reading an article on the Big Think website titled, “When science mixes with politics, all we get is politics,” by Professor Marcelo Gleiser, theoretical physicst, Dartmouth College.  I mistakenly thought that the commentary would decry the misuse of science by politicians, but no.  Instead, it decries the mistrust that we, the unwashed masses, have developed for the science establishment in recent years.  

    Unwittingly, the eminent professor gives us yet more reasons to regard science insiders with skepticism.

    He does what so many of his colleagues do, which is to equate science itself, with the institutions that purport to advance science.  To question politicized scientists, then, is supposedly unscientific.

    To illustrate my personal contact with science-bias, I refer to an email I sent on Feb 3, 2021, to NASA regarding a brief article it had posted at the Space dot com website.  Here is the letter with punctuations slightly adjusted:

    Space dot com has been a credible source of information, because it does not reveal political bias. 

    The story at, “Space Force has Biden’s ‘full support,’ White House says,” … is a sad exception. 

    It was good coverage until it said  

    It shouldn’t come as a huge surprise that Psaki didn’t have a wealth of Space Force information and ideas immediately to hand yesterday. The Biden administration is dealing with a number of pressing issues as it gets up and running, especially the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, so space issues likely aren’t a big priority at the moment.

    Making wordy excuses for the press rep’s lack of knowledge by citing “a number of pressing issues ” is disingenuous.

    ALL administrations have serious pressing issues initially.  With Psaki, even supporters of the new administration have ridiculed Psaki’s pronounced lack of preparedness, citing her frequent “circle back” phrase.

    It would have been more forthright to simply say nothing at all about the press rep, or at most, simply saying, something like, Psaki didn’t have the Space Force information at the time of the press conference.

    That would have been unbiased, factual, and would not have sounded patronizing.

    I hope that you are self-aware enough to recognize your own bias, and to keep it from tainting 

    your otherwise excellent coverage in the future.  Obeisance does not become you.

    – Robert Arvay

    Since then, I have not seen another example of such blatant politicization on the NASA website. 

    Whether my email to them had anything to do with it, I will probably never know.

    Censorship of actual science has been heavy-handed, both by Democrats and by their big-tech acolytes.  

    Epidemiologists, virologists and physicians who do not toe the party line regarding COVID have been intimidated and silenced.  Science that cannot be openly questioned is not science, since the heart and soul of science is to scrutinize every claim from every angle.  If we are to be told that we must follow the science, then scientists must explain to us the inductive reasoning that was applied to exclude members of Congress, and their staffs, from the COVID restrictions they imposed on the rest of us.  If scientists are to decry those of us who doubt their word, then they must equally decry the policy of distributing unvaccinated, untested illegal aliens to every state, while denying entry to legal travelers.

    To decry only the skeptics, while ignoring the egregious anti-science of many politicians, does nothing to engender trust in the institutions of science.  It does the opposite.

    Yes, Professor, mixing science with politics does indeed result only in politics.  Thank you for being an example of that. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/11/2021 – 21:30

  • Top Japan Officials To Join US Boycott Of Beijing Olympics As List Grows
    Top Japan Officials To Join US Boycott Of Beijing Olympics As List Grows

    So far Britain, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Lithuania have said they won’t send government officials to the 2022 Winter Olympic games hosted in Beijing, with New Zealand citing COVID-19 as the main reason, after the United States unveiled its own diplomatic boycott. This past week saw the above-named English speaking allies of the US joining Washington’s boycott while citing longstanding criticisms of China’s human rights record. 

    And now Japan has joined the growing list, as Al Jazeera writes, “Senior Japanese government officials will likely skip the Winter Olympics in Beijing in February, joining the United States in a diplomatic boycott, the Yomiuri newspaper reported on Saturday, citing multiple sources with knowledge of the matter.”

    Image: Bloomberg

    China has condemned the diplomatic boycott movement as “political posturing” while suggesting that in reality Chinese citizens could care less if American leaders don’t attend, saying they weren’t invited anyway. But America’s ability to get other influential nations to follow suit will be hard for China to ignore, after its officials warned of unnamed retaliatory measures on the table.

    Here’s more from the Saturday report:

    Japan’s national broadcaster NHK also confirmed the report saying Tokyo “is leaning toward not sending cabinet ministers to the upcoming Beijing Olympics”.

    The only officials now expected to attend are Olympics-related personnel, including Seiko Hashimoto, the former head of Tokyo’s Olympic organizing committee, the newspaper said.

    Late last month as reports began to surface suggesting that Tokyo is mulling a diplomatic boycott, Chinese officials began warning against mixing sports and politics. Beijing reminded Japanese leaders that China had “fully supported” Japan’s summer Olympics. 

    “China fully supported Japan in hosting the Tokyo Olympics” this summer, so “Japan should have basic faith,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian told reporters in late November.

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    The suggestion was that it would surely lead to a break down in positive relations, also coming as Japan has increasingly joined the US on the contested Taiwan issue:

    China “firmly opposes” Japan’s politicizing sports, Zhao said, adding the two Asian nations should have “important consensus on mutual support for each other’s hosting” of the Olympics.

    But at this point Japan’s government has yet to confirm a full government diplomatic boycott, which means it may just send lower officials – yet the symbolism will still be insulting enough in Beijing’s eyes.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/11/2021 – 21:00

  • Bitcoin Is Self Preservation
    Bitcoin Is Self Preservation

    Authored by Alex McShane via BitcoinMagazine.com,

    Central planning has been so pervasively normalized that whole sectors of society have become dependent on the largesse of the fiat monster. Bitcoin fixes this.

    All living organism share a universal behavior set called self preservation. Self preservation is the set of behaviors that ensures the survival of an organism. Bitcoin is financial self preservation. Many hold Bitcoin to increase the longevity and appreciation of their wealth and therewith their health. Buying Bitcoin is trading time now for time later. Its price appreciation and value preservation allots one more time to attend to physical and mental health needs.

    One function of Bitcoin is to release us from the tyranny of fiat money. The problem with government money by mandate is that it has no integrity, and is debased at will, indefinitely. This is true of all fiat monetary systems. Through taxation, inflation, and confiscation, the government can tightly control, as well as steal from the wealth of its citizens. Central planning has been so pervasively normalized that whole sectors of society have become dependent on the largesse of the fiat monster.

    Fear is an integral part of all organisms’ survival mechanisms. Think of a deer in the woods that bolts away from you. Pain is just as important of teacher. Pain motivates one to withdraw from dangerous and deadly situations. Most populations on the planet have suffered the abuses of fiat systems, which are often introduced slowly, acquiring power steadily, until suddenly the population and their property has been extorted by degrees.

    Bitcoin was invented to undermine and obsolete systemic monetary oppression by governments. If pain reminds us to protect our wounds until they heal, the irresponsible and corrupt actions of governments worldwide have taught Bitcoin holders and advocates to never trust another to be the wardens of our health, our wealth, or our property. Global governments’ disastrous misallocation of resources and power encourage us to avoid outsourcing money creation as well as wealth custody and management in the future.

    Bitcoin will grant many the prosperity to vote in a way that matters, with their unconfiscatable capital and with their feet. The actionable and justified response to government overreach and theft by mandated money is to exit your local fiat currency through buying Bitcoin.

    When the cause of pain is removed from a body and the body has healed, in most cases, the pain ceases. It will be a while before the world is healed of the financial and broader devastation wrought by governments, their fiat money and their central planning. Though each year Bitcoin adoption grows, and we move closer toward hyperbitcoinization.

    Many experience not only a cessation of excess financial burden when they convert to a Bitcoin standard, but they feel elated even at the prospect of work, because they can now preserve the value of their work and their time, and the value of their wealth appreciates long term through Bitcoin. They are accumulating a digital capital resource that can be preserved or reallocated at their will, without permission or fear of debasement or confiscation.

    When it comes to pain, financial or ordinary, in some cases phantom pain and fear persist despite the removal of stimulus and the body’s healing. Sometimes pain occurs in absence of any detectable stimulus, injury, or disease. In the case of individual financial security and human behavior in aggregate, fiat will always be remembered as the catalyst for the long and arduous transition to a healthy global Bitcoin standard.

    In terms of self preservation, fear can cause an organism to seek safety and even release adrenaline. Adrenaline (or epinephrine) is a hormone which acts as a neurotransmitter involved in regulating things like respiration. You can think of Bitcoin as monetary adrenaline, digital energy that can be stored anywhere and that can be spent at will. Bitcoin is a pain response through which humans have engineered their way out of centuries-old money and energy problems.

    Adrenaline plays a big part in fight-or-flight survival responses through pupil dilation, blood sugar level, output of heart, and increasing blood flow to muscles. Adrenaline is even found in some single celled organisms. In the case of Bitcoin, this monetary adrenaline can be applied to all facets of society, through permissionless transactions, and pseudonymous holdings, at any scale. Bitcoin is accessible to virtually anyone, and there is enough immutable supply that everyone on the planet can afford to hold it and deploy the world’s most robust form of purchasing power and monetary adrenaline as they choose.

    Today we have the same capacity for knowledge that they had in ancient Egypt. One major difference is that today we have engineered far more sophisticated means of self protection, and developed better means of acquisition and defense of our private property through Bitcoin. Bitcoin is a lasting digital reminder of the biological lesson of self preservation. 

    By distancing oneself from the fiat realm through Bitcoin, one can see that not only is the fiat system adversarial at all levels, but it actively does harm to the populace. You are in competition. Through Bitcoin you can at the very least least carry out your capital competitions with a transparent and immutable ruleset.

    On a biological level, the only evidence of life is change. Spreading Bitcoin adoption is the most dynamic, effective, and peaceful revolution we can have in response to fiat’s wide spread though centrally controlled oppression. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/11/2021 – 20:30

  • "We Expect A Sea Change": Morgan Stanley Admits It Was Wrong, Now Sees Liftoff In 2022 As Goldman Goes All-In With 7 Rate Hikes
    “We Expect A Sea Change”: Morgan Stanley Admits It Was Wrong, Now Sees Liftoff In 2022 As Goldman Goes All-In With 7 Rate Hikes

    At the start of the month, not long after Goldman capitulated and brought forward its first Fed rate hike forecast by one year to July 2022, virtually every Wall Street bank promptly followed in Goldman’s footsteps turning uber hawkish and expecting several rate hikes and/or accelerating tapering over the coming year. All, expect Morgan Stanley, which stubbornly refused to yield to peer pressure and continued to forecast no rate hikes in 2022 whatsoever.

    This remarkable divergence in Fed outlooks between the two most influential banks promoted us to tweet on Dec 1 that “2022 shaping up as a huge showdown between Goldman and Morgan Stanley. Former says 2, maybe 3 hikes; latter say no hikes. One will be spectacularly wrong.”

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    Just a few days later, with inflation soaring to a fresh 39-year-high (although perhaps finally topping out), Morgan Stanley decided to gracefully and quietly tap out and this week the bank’s -chief US economist Ellen Zentner, pulled forward the bank’s rate hike path by 6 months to September 2022, acknowledging that it was wrong and admitting that there has been a “pivot in the Fed’s reaction function.”

    Even so, Morgan Stanley still remains well beyond market expectations, saying it has “even greater conviction” in its call that core inflation moves off its highs in 1Q 2022, which however further validates concerns that the Fed is engaging in a policy error and tightening into a recession. 

    Here are some more details from Zentner’s note:

    Before investors close out the year, we need to get past the FOMC’s final meeting next week, and it comes with every opportunity for  surprise. On Wednesday, we expect the Fed to move to a hawkish stance by announcing that it is doubling the pace of taper, highlighting continued inflation risks and no longer labeling high inflation as transitory, and showing a hawkish shift in the dot plot. We think this shift will shake out in a 2-hike median in 2022, followed by 3.5 hikes in 2023 and 3 hikes in 2024.

    At the end of the meeting, we think the FOMC’s median view will align more closely with ours – we look for 2 hikes in 2022, followed by 3 hikes plus a halt in reinvestments in 2023. Moreover, we expect the Fed’s median forecast for core PCE and the unemployment rate will also come in reasonably close to our own, which now has higher inflation receding to around 2.5% 4Q/4Q next year, and the unemployment rate back to its pre-pandemic low around 3.5% in 4Q22.  The incoming data on the labor market and inflation has strayed materially from the Fed’s outlook and therefore warrants what we deem to be a sea change in its stance on the appropriate path for policy.

    At the same time, Zentener also says that the timing of liftoff in the bank’s forecast is tied closely to inflation outcomes, with its base case expectation that following the current re-acceleration in inflation we have been expecting, core PCE shows some slowing beginning in February next year. The pace of this deceleration will be important in determining how much of a breather the Fed takes between the end of its asset purchases and the first rate hike.

    Separately, on Friday we received data on inflation for the month of November showing that on a year-over-year basis, core CPI increased to 4.9% from 4.6%. Headline CPI ran at the highest rate since 1982. Despite the alarming headlines, financial markets seemed to be relieved at the results. Why? Because, according to Morgan Stanley, for the first time in months the month-over-month increase of 0.5% was in line with expectations instead of delivering an upside surprise.

    Going back to Morgan Stanley’s mea culpa, Zentener writes that in her outlook, the biggest out-of-consensus call has been the view that core inflation will show signs of slowing in 1Q22 as pandemic-related price pressures, particularly in goods, are slowly abating. She says that today she has “even more conviction in that view” and here’s why: 

    We are seeing nascent signs that pipeline inflation pressures are easing – based on evidence from company earnings transcripts, ISM comments, Korea trade data, China’s inflation data, the Fed’s Beige Book, a department huddle with our equity analysts, and our own survey.

    While Zentener admits that these sources by no means suggest that normalization “is well under way,” but at the very least they indicate that “bottlenecks have peaked” and the chief economist expects that in a few months, “this trend will work its way through the pipeline to finished goods prices at the consumer level.” It is unclear if Morgan Stanley’s previous thesis of a huge – and deflationary – inventory glut as supply chains blockages ease,

    In parting, the Morgan Stanley economist tries to deflect some of the blame for having been wrong in its call, and says that “to be right on our Fed call for 2 hikes in 2022, not only do we have to be right on the path for core PCE, but Chair Powell has to be willing to direct attention to slowing inflation as a way of pushing back on market expectations that are now pricing in nearly 3 hikes, with a healthy probability the Fed could begin as early as March.”

    But while Morgan Stanley is at least somewhat cautious about going hawkish, Goldman no longer has any such qualms, and moments ago on Saturday afternoon, the bank went all in on its hawkish relent… and so one month after pulling forward its call for a rate hike by over a year to July 2022, the bank now says that “the FOMC is very likely to double the pace of tapering to $30bn per month at its December meeting next week, putting it on track to announce the last two tapers at the January FOMC meeting and to implement the last taper in March.” As a result, Goldman now expects the FOMC to deliver rate hikes next year in May, July, and November (vs. June, September, and December previously) and another 4 in 2023 and 2024 (spread evenly 2 and 2). Some more details from the full note, which as usual is available to professional subs.

    New information about both inflation and the labor market since the FOMC last met supports a faster taper pace and an early liftoff. Inflation has increased further as prices of durable goods and shelter have continued to rise rapidly, though wage growth has slowed since enhanced unemployment benefits expired in September. Labor market slack has diminished rapidly, roughly in line with our expectations but faster than Fed officials expected.

    Chair Powell has indicated that the FOMC is likely to retire the word “transitory” from its statement and instead explain that it thinks the current period of elevated inflation is unlikely to “leave a permanent mark” by raising long-term inflation expectations. More meaningful changes to the statement, especially to language about inflation having run persistently below 2%, are also possible.

    We expect the Summary of Economic Projections to show somewhat higher inflation and lower unemployment. Our best guess is that the dots will show 2 hikes in 2022, 3 in 2023, and 4 in 2024, for a total of 9 (vs. 0.5 / 3 / 3 and a total of 6.5 in September). We think the leadership will prefer to show only 2 hikes in 2022 for now to avoid making a more dramatic change in one step, especially at a meeting when the FOMC is already doubling the taper pace. But if Powell is comfortable showing 3 hikes next year, then we would expect others to join him in a decisive shift in the dots in that direction.

    In conclusion, Goldman’s forecast calls for 3 hikes in 2022 (vs 2 for Morgan Stanley) and then 2 per year starting in 2023. The bank also expects two hikes per year starting in 2023 because like MS, it also expects inflation to fall to moderately above 2% and growth to slow to just above potential by then.

    That said, Goldman’s Jan Hatzius says that he “inferred from the September dots that Powell and Governor Brainard envision hiking twice per year in that environment, a slower pace than last cycle that we assume reflects the new monetary policy framework.” However, the bank will watch the December dots to see if they still view that as the default pace.

    Or, one can just look at what the market is saying and the conclusion there is clear: with the 4Y1Y – 2Y1Y curve inverting…

    … as STIR traders now expect rates in 2023 to be higher than in 2025, the verdict is simple: not only is the Fed engaging in policy error, hiking into an economic slowdown – with inflation having already peaked, someone has yet to explain to us how monetary policy will help alleviate supply chains, for example – but it will then proceed to rapidly cut rates (perhaps to negative) while injecting trillions more in QE once markets crash (amid the coming rate hike panic detailed meticulously by BofA CIO Michael Hartnett) to reflect the Fed’s panicked actions (which an objective observer could say reek suspiciously of political pandering to appease Joe Biden who is clearly freaking out about his collapsing rating and the impact inflation is having on it) some time in late 2022, just before the midterms.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/11/2021 – 20:00

  • California Is Hiding $300 Billion A Year In Spending From The Public, Claims It's For The People's Own Good
    California Is Hiding $300 Billion A Year In Spending From The Public, Claims It’s For The People’s Own Good

    By Adam Andrzejewski. the CEO/Founder of OpenTheBooks.com; originally published on Forbes

    In 2018, California resident Steven Childs wanted to know how much the state paid to a single vendor over a five-year period. Instead of the data, California Controller Betty Yee sent him an invoice for $1,250. Childs asked more questions and the Controller’s chief counsel, Rick Chivaro, admitted the state held electronic records and “warrant records” akin to “maintaining a checking account online.”

    Today, in a Sacramento superior court, the controller denies having a checkbook and claims the warrant register doesn’t contain vendor information. The Golden State is the only state in the nation not to produce state spending under open records laws.

    Our organization at OpenTheBooks.com is battling the controller in this case over our freedom of information request for the entire line-by-line state vendor checkbook. When the controller rejected our request, we sued.

    Yee is claiming her office “couldn’t locate” a single payment. No, that’s not fake news, or a comedy punch line. California’s top financial officer actually argued this in court recently, despite admitting she paid 50 million individual bills last year.

    Furthermore, the controller now claims that transparency itself is an “undue burden.” She swears it’s necessary to take 72,000 work hours to go through each of the 50 million payments by hand.  

    Here are some of the arguments Yee is making to stonewall our request:

    • “In order to produce checkbook level data as requested … staff would need to manually review the estimated 50 million transactions …” (Emphasis added.) 
    • “The public interest served by not disclosing the requested records and data clearly outweighs the public interest in disclosure. As such, the [State Controller’s Office] is relieved of any obligation to produce the requested records.” (Emphasis added.)  

    Do we have a representative republic if the representatives get to hide all transactions from the people—and claim that it’s for their own good? 

    Controller Yee acts like she has something to hide. Here are just a couple items we learned during discovery about how taxpayer dollars are spent by the controller:

    1. Using paper and string. An estimated 200,000 bills — submitted only on paper — were paid during the fiscal year. Incredibly, the justification for each payment contains even more paper — between 15-20 pages and is bound and physically tied together with string. It takes 7-10 minutes to deconstruct, copy, and reconstruct each file.

    2. State agencies submit employee reimbursements and supplemental payments to the controller without payee information. The controller provides the money with no accountability and no auditing.  

    The controller makes state payments, is compelled by the state constitution to audit them, and therefore must be able to track those payments. Any responsible entity that makes a payment can track the payment. It is the minimum standard in any basic accounting system.

    In California, the controller has frequently blamed their outdated systems that store records on paper, microfiche, and electronic tape. Yee even admitted that couriers with manila folders run demands for payments from state agencies. Is this ancient Rome?

    Yee’s argument to hide state expenditures mirrors those advanced by then-Wyoming state auditor Cynthia Cloud, a Republican, in 2018.  

    Cloud said it would take “years and years” to produce a state checkbook, but after we sued, new state auditor, Kristi Racines, also a Republican, produced seven years of state checkbook spending in her first 30 days. 

    In 2012, we sued then-Illinois comptroller Judy Baar Topinka. Topinka, also a Republican, said “there is no magical state checkbook.” We reminded her that the state doesn’t have magical taxpayers either. Within nine months, we received records of line-by-line state spending spanning seven years. 

    We’ve seen Yee’s excuses before, and they’re just that—excuses.

    Now, Yee admits as much. The controller’s estimate for the hours necessary to dig up the bills, as provided in her sworn “good-faith estimate,” total 71,548 hours. Since controller employees work 176 hours per month, we estimate that’s about 34 full-time employees at $70 an hour, or $5 million per year. 

    And, there’s every reason to believe that the “estimate” is grossly inflated by tens of thousands of hours and millions of dollars.

    So, why wasn’t transparency already mandated? The California state government has 269,000 employees and a $21 billion payroll. The controller’s office itself has 1,382 employees for a $101 million payroll.

    Since 2005, California invested $1 billion into FI$Cal, an accounting and transparency platform. However, 20 major units of state government will never be in the system or are deferred for years to come.

    Last year, our organization filed 40,500 Freedom of Information Act requests — the most in American history. We captured vendor expenditure “checkbooks” in the other 49 states, within 13,000 local governments, and at the federal level. Citizens can see all vendor payments — in addition to 25 million public employee salaries and retirement pension payments — on our website, OpenTheBooks.com.  

    It should not take a subpoena or a lawsuit to force open the state payment records.

    Since 2013, our organization at OpenTheBooks.com has invited the California controller to join the transparency revolution and produce line-by-line state spending. Today, our lawyers at non-profit public interest firm Cause of Action, in Washington, D.C. represent us. 

    It is time to let the sun shine on California state spending.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/11/2021 – 19:30

  • Pfizer Jab Is Only 23% Effective Against Omicron, South African Study Finds
    Pfizer Jab Is Only 23% Effective Against Omicron, South African Study Finds

    A few days ago, researchers in South Africa shared data from a preliminary study showing that the Pfizer vaccine is less effective at blocking the omicron variant than earlier variants like beta and delta. Now, the team is telling us exactly how much less effective the vaccine is.

    According to the same data gleaned from the blood plasma taken from 12 patients who tested positive for omicron, the team found that a two-shot course of Pfizer’s vaccine has just 22.5% efficacy against symptomatic infection with the omicron variant, though it can thwart severe disease, according to laboratory experiments in South Africa, according to Bloomberg.

    The data comes courtesy of a team of researchers at the Africa Health Research Institute in Durban.

    Though data has been pouring out about omicron, and sometimes individual studies reach opposing findings, the general consensus is that omicron will be able to more easily evade protection afforded from the first generation of vaccines – however, the scientists say that people will still be protected against severe disease and death. But it matters less anyway, since any patient – even an unvaccinated one – has less to fear from omicron. The reason being is that it’s believed to cause a more mild, “flu-like” infection. As we’ve said before, when you hear politicians like Joe Biden talking about an omicron takeover as if it were already a certainty (only a couple thousand cases have been confirmed around the world, if that), it’s because they wish it were true.

    The same is true for the CEOs of Moderna and Pfizer, who have been out sharing FUD about omicron with the news media on an almost non-stop rotation. They say their companies can have a new batch of vaccines available in 90-100 days. It’s almost as if they’ve been waiting for the opportunity, and if you look back at their comments, it’s clear that they have.

    Still, in the US, the CDC has confirmed that only 1 of 43 patients infected with the variant has been hospitalized.

    And luckily for both the US, and developing countries that haven’t been able to obtain many vaccines, omicron shouldn’t be more mild. Plus, there are already signs that the current mostly delta driven wave is actually slowing, despite local and national leaders’ carping, followed – in many cases – by tighter restrictions on mask-wearing and (in President Biden’s case) growing pressure for mandatory vaccinations.

    The researchers who published this latest data also published some earlier findings about omicron that were of interest to the international community. Of course, their data will be used by Big Pharma (and then governments) to justify mandating boosters.

    Fortunately for the public, cases might soon finally drop off, a process that could be aided by an omicron takeover from delta.

    One engineer and independent forecaster who has been closely following the pandemic recently shared a model illustrating how cases might actually be already leveling off for good in Gauteng,the South Africa city seen as the epicenter of the omicron wave (even though the first case was reportedly discovered in a patient from neighboring Botswana).

    He also projected that the death toll in an omicron-takeover scenario would likely be much, much lower than it would be if delta continued to dominate.

    If this all comes to pass, it would be just in time, too, since Jerome Powell has clearly gotten “the tap” that it’s time to hit the gas on unwinding the Fed’s unprecedented monetary experiment as prices surge in a manner that’s reminiscent of the early 1980s.

    Around the world, the appetite for extended lockdowns has clearly diminished. How long until the rest of these restrictions are finally abandoned?

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/11/2021 – 19:00

  • US Shale Slams Biden's Oil Policies
    US Shale Slams Biden’s Oil Policies

    By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com,

    U.S. shale producers have been disappointed with the Biden Administration’s policies regarding the oil and gas industry for nearly a year now, and they voiced their disappointment, once again, at this week’s World Petroleum Congress in Houston.  

    While the U.S. Administration was calling repeatedly on OPEC+ to pump more oil to stop the rally in U.S. gasoline prices, which hit a seven-year high a few months ago, it failed to reach out to domestic producers first for more supply, shale executives and industry associations say. 

    Instead of asking OPEC+ and counties like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Russia to pump more oil, the Administration should have laid the foundations for a faster recovery of U.S. oil production, which producers curtailed last year in response to the crash in demand and oil prices, executives say.

    Not that everyone would have listened. The oil companies have now switched to a “shareholder returns mode” from “record production mode” to finally reward investors after years of splurging on record production and seeing little (or in many cases, negative) cash flows. 

    Shale executives started to express their criticism of the Biden Administration weeks ago, when officials openly pleaded with OPEC+ to increase supply to relieve prices at the pump in the United States. 

    Now many of those executives gathered in Houston to reiterate their view that “you should have called us first.”

    “Enormous Profits”

    “[T]he energy industry is making enormous profits. They’re back up to above where they were before the pandemic started. So, they have taken advantage of that moment — the profits — to be able to engage in shareholder buybacks, for example,” U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said last month when President Joe Biden announced plans for a release of 50 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in a bid to lower gasoline prices. 

    “But we want to encourage them to increase supply. We want supply to be increased both inside the United States and around the world so that we can reduce the pressures at the pump,” Granholm added. 

    The U.S. shale patch, however, is not racing to boost supply too much. One reason is the still widely prevalent capital discipline. But another is wariness and uncertainty about the Biden Administration’s policies toward oil and gas, and said Administration’s calls on OPEC+ to pump more while imposing restrictive measures on drilling on U.S. federal land.

    Pioneer Natural Resources CEO: “They have not called me”

    “Their first response was to call Opec and ask them to pump more oil. They have not called me,” Pioneer Natural Resources’ CEO Scott Sheffield told the Financial Times on the sidelines of the Houston energy conference. “And we’re the largest Permian producer,” Sheffield added. 

    Pioneer Natural Resources and many other public oil and gas producers cannot change capital budgets and drilling plans overnight, especially now that they are scrutinized by investors demanding higher returns. 

    The U.S. shale has not been happy with the Administration’s continued engagement with OPEC+ on oil supply, while there is such—and it is abundant—in America. 

    “I think first you, you stay home, you ask your friends, and you ask your neighbors to do it. And then if we can’t do it, you call some other countries,” Occidental’s CEO Vicki Hollub told CNBC last month.

    U.S. Producers Grapple With Uncertainties Beyond Oil Prices

    The shale patch is keeping disciplined spending because of their changed priority to return cash to investors first and because of the high uncertainties on the global oil market with oversupply looming early next year and uncertain impact of Omicron (or other) COVID variants on demand. But U.S. oil producers also face heightened uncertainty with this Administration, which pushes for renewable energy and looks to impose more restrictive policies on the fossil fuels industry. 

    When the Biden Administration intensified calls on OPEC+ to boost production to alleviate surging gasoline prices in the U.S., the American Exploration and Production Council said at the end of October, “The worst thing an Administration can do to energy prices is restrict supply by implementing policies that make it harder to produce energy.” 

    The Administration also called for an investigation into whether oil companies are allegedly colluding to make gasoline prices the highest in seven years. 

    In a comment following President Biden’s renewed request for the Federal Trade Commission to investigate rising gas prices, Frank Macchiarola, Senior Vice President for Policy, Economics and Regulatory Affairs at the American Petroleum Institute (API), said in mid-November: 

    “This is a distraction from the fundamental market shift that is taking place and the ill-advised government decisions that are exacerbating this challenging situation. Demand has returned as the economy comes back and is outpacing supply. Further impacting the imbalance is the continued decision from the administration to restrict access to America’s energy supply and cancel important infrastructure projects.” 

    “Rather than launching investigations on markets that are regulated and closely monitored on a daily basis or pleading with OPEC to increase supply, we should be encouraging the safe and responsible development of American-made oil and natural gas,” Macchiarola added.   

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/11/2021 – 18:30

  • 70 Dead In Kentucky As Biden Calls Tornado Outbreak "One Of The Largest In History"
    70 Dead In Kentucky As Biden Calls Tornado Outbreak “One Of The Largest In History”

    Update (1812ET): Late Friday, deadly tornados touched down in at least six states — Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky, Missouri, Mississippi, and Tennessee.

    The worst devastation was in Kentucky, where 70 people were confirmed killed, and the death toll could jump to 100 in the coming hours, if not days. 

    Gov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky said, “this has been the most devastating tornado event in our state’s history.” 

    On Saturday evening, President Biden said the disaster was “one of the largest tornado outbreaks in our history.” 

    “It’s a tragedy. And we still don’t know how many lives are lost and the full extent of the damage,” Biden said. He promised federal aid to the six states listed above that were affected by the severe storms. 

    It’s only a matter of time before the Biden administration blames climate change.

    * * * 

    Update (1040ET): Mayfield, Kentucky has woken up to absolute devastation across large swaths of the state following the major storm which has left, at the least, dozens dead and hundreds injured.

    *  *  *

    Authored by Lorenz Duschamps via The Epoch Times,

    A major storm system ripped through multiple U.S. states on Friday, hitting a candle factory in Kentucky with more than 100 employees still inside the building at the time a tornado struck.

    The series of U.S. storms started early on Friday and are already blamed for multiple deaths and injuries across parts of the Midwest and South.

    Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear said at a news conference that it is going to be “some of the worst tornado damage that we’ve seen for a long time,” calling the weather event a “mass casualty” incident.

    “We believe our death toll from this event will exceed 50 Kentuckians, probably end up closer to 70 to 100 lost lives,” Beshear said.

     “There were about 110 people in [the factory] at the time that the tornado hit it,” he added.

    Beshear also announced the deployment of about 180 guardsmen, including search and extraction, as the governor declared a state of emergency and requested President Joe Biden a federal emergency declaration.

    Kentucky emergency management director Michael Dossett said at the same briefing that the storm appears to be the first quad-state tornado storm in the state’s history.

    “This tornado event may surpass the one in 1974 … as one of the most deadliest in Kentucky’s history,” Dossett said, adding that this will be “one of the darkest days in the state’s history.”

    The primary tornado was on the ground for 200-miles, Beshear said and would be the longest traveled of any tornado in the state for nearly 100 years.

    Meanwhile, significant damage has also been reported in other parts of the U.S., including at an Amazon fulfillment center in Illinois, where a wall about the length of a football field collapsed, along with the roof above it. Tornadoes also ripped through Missouri, Arkansas, and Tennessee.

    Emergency vehicles stage outside an Amazon fulfillment center after it was heavily damaged when a strong thunderstorm moved through the area, in Edwardsville, Ill., on Dec. 10, 2021. (Jeff Roberson/AP Photo)

    At least 100 emergency vehicles descended upon the Amazon warehouse near Edwardsville, about 25 miles east of St. Louis. It wasn’t immediately clear how many people were hurt, but one person was flown by helicopter to a hospital.

    Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker said in a statement that he has contacted the mayor in Edwardsville to request if they need any state resources.

    Amazon spokesperson Richard Rocha said in a written statement on Friday that the company’s top priority now is “the safety and well-being of our employees and partners.”

    “We’re assessing the situation and will share additional information when it’s available,” Rocha added.

    The Amazon distribution center is partially collapsed after being hit by a tornado in Edwardsville, Ill., on Dec. 10, 2021.

    Edwardsville Police Chief Mike Fillback said several people who were in the building were taken by bus to the police station in nearby Pontoon Beach for evaluation. By early Saturday, rescue crews were still sorting through the rubble to determine if anyone was trapped inside.

    “Please be patient with us. Our fire personnel are doing everything they can to reunite everyone with their loved ones,” Fillback said on KMOV-TV.

    Three storm-related deaths were confirmed in Tennessee, said Dean Flener, spokesman for the Tennessee Emergency Management Agency. Two of the deaths occurred in Lake County, and the third was in Obion County—both in the northwestern corner of the state.

    A tornado struck the Monette Manor nursing home in Arkansas on Friday night, killing one person and trapping 20 people inside as the building collapsed, Craighead County Judge Marvin Day told The Associated Press.

    Five people had serious injuries, and a few others had minor ones, he said. The nursing home has 86 beds.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/11/2021 – 18:12

  • Stung By The Semi Shortage, Chinese Auto Sales Fall For The Seventh Straight Month
    Stung By The Semi Shortage, Chinese Auto Sales Fall For The Seventh Straight Month

    Vehicle sales in China fell for the seventh straight month in November, according to newly released data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) on Friday.

    Sales were down 9.1% from the year prior as the industry continued to struggle with what is now becoming a year’s long semiconductor shortage. 

    The country posted total sales of 2.52 million vehicles in November, once again led by sales of new energy and electric vehicles, according to Reuters.

    Total new energy vehicles grew 121% to 450,000 units from the year prior, helped along by the government pushing to further rein in pollution. New energy vehicles include battery-powered electric vehicles, plug-in petrol-electric hybrids and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles, Reuters wrote.

    CAAM spokesperson Chen Shihua commented: “Consumer acceptance of new energy vehicles continues to rise. The market has shifted from policy-motivated to demand-driven.”

    Among the top sellers in China were Tesla, who sold 52,859 vehicles (which we highlighted analyst analysis of days ago) and Nio, who sold a record 10,878 cars last month. Xpeng sold 15,613 vehicles and Volkswagen sold over 14,000 of its ID series electric vehicles. 

    While still marking the seventh month lower, November’s sales beat CAAM’s expectations. While semiconductor supply is going to continue to be lumpy, power shortages in China that interrupted production throughout the month are finally beginning to ease. 

    Recall, we wrote in September that the heads of many auto manufacturers have suggested that the semi shortage “may not just disappear” in 2022.

    Volkswagen Chief Executive Officer Herbert Diess said on Bloomberg TV in September: “Probably we will remain in shortages for the next months or even years because semiconductors are in high demand. The internet of things is growing and the capacity ramp-up will take time. It will be probably a bottleneck for the next months and years to come.”

    Ola Kallenius at Daimler and Oliver Zipse of BMW also added to the pessimism. Kallenius said that the shortage “may not entirely go away” in 2022, according to Bloomberg. Zipse said there could be another 6 to 12 months left in the shortage.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/11/2021 – 18:00

  • Pennsylvania Supreme Court Ends School Mask Mandate
    Pennsylvania Supreme Court Ends School Mask Mandate

    Authored by Beth Brelje via The Epoch Times,

    The Pennsylvania Supreme Court Friday affirmed a Commonwealth Court decision that said Acting Health Secretary Alison Beam did not have the authority to issue a mask mandate for everyone indoors at schools and childcare centers.

    It means, effective immediately, school mask mandates are no longer mandatory, although many schools have a local rule that students who wish to wear a mask may still do so.

    The suit was brought by Pennsylvania Senate President Pro Tempore Jake Corman, a Republican who is running for governor. It was filed personally, as a parent, along with other parents, and not as part of a Senate action.

    “With today’s ruling, the power for parents and local leaders to make health and safety decisions in our schools is restored,” Corman said in a prepared statement.

    “That power comes with an obligation to review the facts and act in the best interests of our communities—which is why legislative leaders sent a letter to Governor Tom Wolf yesterday to reconvene the COVID-19 Vaccine Task Force. I encourage all stakeholders to review the needs and conditions in our communities to make the best choices for our kids.”

    Wolf recently announced he would return masking decisions over to local school leaders on Jan. 17, so some were surprised when the state’s Department of Health appealed the Commonwealth Court’s decision and continued fighting for the mandatory mask mandate.

    While the state battled in court to keep masks on kids, on Dec. 6, educators gathered without students and appeared unconcerned about masking.

    Secretary of Education Noe Ortega announced that Elizabeth Raff, an educator at Penn Manor School District in Lancaster County, was named the 2022 Pennsylvania Teacher of the Year.

    The announcement was made during the Standards Aligned System Institute, the Pennsylvania Department of Education’s annual professional development conference. Photographs from the event, provided by the state, show teachers and state employees gathered without social distancing and not wearing masks.

    Raff teaches sixth grade English language arts and social studies at Pequea Elementary School. She was chosen from among 12 finalists. She will travel the state, meet and collaborate with other educators, and will represent Pennsylvania in next year’s National Teacher of the Year competition.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/11/2021 – 17:30

  • Here's How Reserve Currencies Have Evolved Over 120 Years
    Here’s How Reserve Currencies Have Evolved Over 120 Years

    Over the last 120 years, the popularity of different reserve currencies have ebbed and flowed, reflecting the shifting fortunes of leading global economies.

    For example, in the year 1900, the U.S. dollar and pound sterling made up 0% and 62% of global reserves respectively. But, fast forward to 2020, and Visual Capitalist’s Aran Ali notes, the pound now represents just 4.7% of global currency reserves, while the U.S. dollar stands at nearly 60%.

    Today’s motion graphic from James Eagle looks at the year-over-year change in currency reserves as a portion of total reserves, spread across 120 years.

    What is a Reserve Currency?

    A reserve currency is a large quantity of currency held in “reserve” by monetary authorities like central banks.

    Currencies are often held in reserve in preparation for investments and transactions, among other things. Our vast global trade system, which is approaching $20 trillion in value, means plenty of currencies are always needed in reserve. In fact, an estimated $5 trillion in currency swaps hands every single day.

    Here are some reasons that currency reserves are held:

    • Exchange rate stability for the domestic currency

    • To ensures liquidity in times of crisis

    • To diversify central bank portfolios, which can reduce risk and improve credit ratings

    All things equal, countries benefit economically from greater demand for their respective currencies.

    The Rise and Fall of Reserve Currencies

    Some economists argue that the demand for currencies in the long run revolves around the economic relevance of a country. In general, the larger and more powerful a nation’s economy is, the greater the network effect, and the more interlinked they are to the global economy. Thus, the greater demand there is to hold their currency in reserve.

    The last 120 years of currency reserve data shows some support for this claim. For example, Japan’s economy hit a peak in terms of its relative share of global GDP in the early 1990s, just before the effects of the Lost Decade were felt. Subsequently, their peak as a reserve currency was around the same horizon, at 9.4% in 1990.

    America’s Era of Dominance

    Due to the economic strength of the United States in the post-WWII era, the dollar is what economists call a vehicle currency.

    This means many non-dollar economies still choose to engage in international transactions using the dollar. These smaller and less accepted currencies are often converted to U.S. dollars before proceeding with any business or trade dealings. This is why, although Asian economies tend to have neighboring states as their top trade partners, they still engage in a massive portion of these transactions with the U.S. greenback as the currency of choice.

    Here are some facts that further exemplify the strength and power of the U.S. dollar:

    • More than 65 countries peg their currencies to the U.S. dollar

    • Five U.S. territories and a number of sovereign countries, such as Ecuador and Panama, use it as an official currency of exchange

    • Around 90% of all Forex trading involves the U.S. dollar

    Additionally, the dollar is often seen as a haven in times of extreme uncertainty and tumult. Given its status as the world’s reserve currency, it can be perceived as less risky and can withstand economic shock to a greater degree relative to other currencies.

    New Challengers to the Dollar

    In the not too distant past, the U.S. displaced the UK economically and as the world’s reserve currency. Today, the U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing down, based on GDP growth.

    China is on the rise, having already displaced the U.S. as the EU’s top trade partner. With projections for China to overtake the U.S. as the world’s largest economy before 2030 in nominal terms, could a new global reserve currency emerge?

    Remember, nothing lasts forever…

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/11/2021 – 17:00

  • Kellogg Plans To Permanently Replace 1,400 Striking Workers
    Kellogg Plans To Permanently Replace 1,400 Striking Workers

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

    Kellogg plans to permanently replace some 1,400 workers who have been striking since October, the company announced this week.

    Kellogg and the Bakery, Confectionery, Tobacco Workers, and Grain Millers International Union failed to reach a new contract agreement, leading to the planned change.

    “We have made every effort to reach a fair agreement, including making six offers to the union throughout negotiations, all which have included wage and benefits increases for every employee. It appears the union created unrealistic expectations for our employees,” Chris Hood, president of Kellogg North America, said in a recent statement.

    “The prolonged work stoppage has left us no choice but to hire permanent replacement employees in positions vacated by striking workers. These are great jobs and posting for permanent positions helps us find qualified people to fill them. While certainly not the result we had hoped for, we must take the necessary steps to ensure business continuity. We have an obligation to our customers and consumers to continue to provide the cereals that they know and love,” he added.

    The strike started because of disputes over pay, benefits, and the prospect of more jobs being moved to Mexico. Workers are striking at factories in four states: Michigan, Nebraska, Pennsylvania, and Tennessee.

    The union said workers “overwhelmingly voted to reject the tentative agreement” and that the strike would continue.

    Striking Kellogg’s workers stand outside the company’s cereal plant in Omaha, Neb., on Dec. 2, 2021. (Josh Funk/AP Photo)

    Just days earlier, Kellogg said a tentative deal was reached, but that workers would have to vote to approve it.

    The plan to replace the striking workers permanently drew criticism from President Joe Biden, who called himself “deeply troubled” by it.

    “Permanently replacing striking workers is an existential attack on the union and its members’ jobs and livelihoods. I strongly support legislation that would ban that practice,” he said on Friday.

    Rep. Andy Levin (D-Mich.) also offered support for the workers, writing on Twitter, “If we seek to be a democratic society with broadly shared prosperity, workers must be free to organize and bargain—and, yes, strike—without fear of losing their jobs.”

    Democrats and several Republicans want to pass a bill called the Protecting the Right to Organize Act, which would strengthen penalties for employers that violate workers’ rights and enhance workers’ ability to boycott and strike.

    For example, the bill would amend the National Labor Relations Act and make it an unfair labor practice to permanently replace an employee who participates in a strike.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/11/2021 – 16:30

  • Taiwan Investigating Whether Mice Can Transmit Covid To Humans After Bitten Lab Employee Tests Positive
    Taiwan Investigating Whether Mice Can Transmit Covid To Humans After Bitten Lab Employee Tests Positive

    As if the Covid hysteria being pushed by the media needed any more fodder for the flame, Taiwan is now in the process of investigating whether or not a bite by a mouse in a laboratory may have transmitted Covid to an employee.

    The incident involves a woman who worked at Academia Sinica, Taiwan’s top research institute, according to RT. She was diagnosed with Covid last month after health authorities confirmed she had been bitten twice by mice carrying the virus.

    While it is technically still unknown whether the virus came from the bite, RT notes that the country’s health minister, Chen Shih-chung said the: “possibility of infection from the workplace is higher because we have zero confirmed infections in the community.”

    The employee had been vaccinated with Moderna’s vaccine and also had a record of great bio-security, the report says. About 100 people were in close contact with her – they are now in quarantine. 

    The incident stands out because Taiwan has one of the world’s lowest Covid infection rates given its 23 million person population. It has recorded only 16,704 Covid infections and 848 deaths to date, the report says. 

    While cats and dogs have also been found to carry the infection, “there is no evidence that infected pets can pass Covid on to humans,” RT concludes.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/11/2021 – 16:00

  • Inflation Surges Near 40-Year High, Wages Aren't Keeping Up
    Inflation Surges Near 40-Year High, Wages Aren’t Keeping Up

    Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

    According to new data released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, price inflation in November rose to the highest level recorded in nearly 40 years. According to the consumer price index for November, year-over-year price inflation rose to 6.8 percent. It hasn’t been that high since June 1982 when the growth rate was at 7.2 percent.

    November’s increase was up from October’s year-over-year increase of 6.2 percent. And it was well up from November 2020’s year-over-year increase of 1.13 percent.

    This surge in price inflation comes only a week after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell backtracked on earlier comments dismissing the threat of price inflation, and suggested previous attempts to define recent inflation as “transitory” wasn’t quite accurate. Declaring last week that it was “a good time to retire the word,” Powell continued his pivot to addressing the danger of inflation “becoming entrenched.”

    It’s unclear to what degree inflation might already be entrenched, but year-over-year growth in the CPI has been over five percent for the past six months—and on a clear upward trajectory.

    At the same time, inflation is taking a bite out of workers’ purchasing power. November’s numbers on average hourly earnings suggest that inflation is erasing the gains made in workers’ earnings. During November 2021, average hourly earnings increased 4.8 percent, year over year. But with inflation at 6.9 percent, earnings clearly aren’t keeping up:

    Source: BLS: Table B-3. Average hourly and weekly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls; Consumer price index.

    Looking at this gap, we find that real earnings growth has been negative for the past eight months, coming in at negative 2.1 percent year-over-year growth for November 2021. November was the eighth month in a row for negative growth in earnings.

    Source: BLS: Table B-3. Average hourly and weekly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls; Consumer price index.

    Moreover, according to the Conference Board, US salaries are growing at a rate of approximately 3 percent this year.

    Combined with November’s unemployment rate of 4.2 percent, November’s inflation growth puts the US misery index at 10.82. That’s the highest level since June of this year, and similar to the misery index levels experienced when the unemployment rate surged in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis.

    In addition to CPI inflation, asset-price inflation will likely continue to be troublesome for consumers as well. For example, according to the Federal Housing and Finance Agency, home price growth has surged in recent months, with year-over-year growth now coming in at 16.4 percent.

    Don’t Expect Much from the Fed

    Politically, there is now clearly pressure on the Fed to “do something” about inflation. In addition to inflation’s impacts on earnings, inflation already has the potential to impact corporate profits as well. Nonetheless, today’s inflation news did not send the Dow down, as inflation fears were probably already priced in following Powell’s comments last week on rising inflation and his statements on the potential for speeding up the Fed’s ultra-slow tapering process:

    In testimony before a Senate panel on Nov. 30, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell tipped the warning that the central bank would discuss speeding the taper of its $120 billion monthly bond purchases at the December meetings. His comments followed a parade of Fed speakers, who all suggested the central bank could end the program sooner than the current timeline of June 2022.

    But just how much will the Fed really scale back QE ? Yes, inflation can impact profits, but scaling back QE can also be a big problem for asset prices. The Fed has proven to be extremely cautious on this latter front. Even if the Fed speeds up this tapering process, it will still be a stretch to describe the Fed’s posture as anything approaching “hawkish.” With the current plan, the Fed may end new asset purcahases in 22022, but its portfolio will still be approaching $9 trillion and there are no apparent plans to cut the size of the portfolio.

    It’s unlikely the Fed will seriously contemplate selling any sizable number of assets any time soon. For one, the Fed will still face pressure from the administration and Congress to prop up demand (and thus push down interest rates) for Treasurys. 

    In spite of all this enduring Fed caution, some analysists on Wall Street are trying to claim that the economy is red hot. Jim Cramer, for example is now claiming the US is on the edge of a new Roaring 20s. After all, new unemployment claims are remarkably low, and the employment situation is seemingly wonderful. But as investor Sven Henrich points out, “If you went back in time to any period & told people that in 2021 with the lowest claims in 50 years, record job openings, 8% GDP growth & 6.7% CPI the Fed is not only still running QE & zero rates but is refusing to raise rates you’d get locked up in the loony bin.”

    But why can’t the Fed see how great things are, and why isn’t it therefore raising the target fed funds rate and dumping its assets? If the economy is roaring to life, demand for these assets should be abundant.

    In many ways, the current situation with the Fed is just a continuation of what we saw during the Yellen and Bernanke years. After 2010, there was frequent talk of how the economy was growing and doing well, yet the Fed only dared engage in slight tightening of monetary policy beginning in late 2016. Today, there’s apparently still little enthusiasm for any sudden moves, lest Wall Street get spooked. The Fed may talk like it’s concerned about consumer inflation, but it’s shown it’s much more committed to keeping asset prices high, and that precludes any significant effort at reining in inflation. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/11/2021 – 15:30

  • Iran Warns Against Reported US-Israeli Drills Prepping Attack On Nuke Sites
    Iran Warns Against Reported US-Israeli Drills Prepping Attack On Nuke Sites

    On Saturday a top Iranian military official warned Tel Aviv and Washington against planned-for joint military drills that would simulate attacks on Iran. Reuters earlier in the week reported that Israeli Defense Minister Benjamin Gantz and US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin had met to discuss possible joint ‘counter-Iran’ exercises, with Israeli media reports suggesting they already might be taking place.

    “Providing conditions for military commanders to test Iranian missiles with real targets will cost the aggressors a heavy price,” the unnamed military official was cited in state media as saying.

    US officials have lately described the Biden administration has a ‘plan B’ in place should Vienna negotiations fail to produce any breakthrough – which suggests even more sanctions but also possible military strike options against Iran nuclear facilities. Some in the administration worry that this occasional “mowing the grass” will in the end to little to deter Iran’s program – instead they fear it could only hasten Tehran’s pursuit of a bomb.

    Image: Israeli Air Force

    Currently the concern is that Iran may soon reach uranium enrichment and centrifuge capabilities that cannot be reversed. “Iran has been enriching uranium up to 20-percent purity with 166 advanced machines at its Fordow plant, the International Atomic Energy Agency said,” The Hill noted on Saturday.

    Days ago, on Thursday, the Pentagon was pressed by reporters in its daily briefing over the reports of joint Israel-US training exercises to take out Iran’s facilities. 

    “I know there’s interest in a certain Reuters report,” Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said. “I will tell you this, we routinely conduct exercises and training with our Israeli counterparts and I have nothing to announce to or speak to or point to or speculate about today.”

    Also on Saturday a bombshell New York Times report revealed that Israel has been consulting with the United States over covert strikes on Iranian facilities. The White House is believed to have ‘green lighted’ some of these attacks.

    The report also includes confirmation that Biden has ordered military strike plans drawn up: “In an effort to close the gap, American officials let out word this week that two months ago, Mr. Biden asked his national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, to review the Pentagon’s revised plan to take military action if the diplomatic effort collapsed.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    This means that if Vienna talks collapse in total failure, it won’t be long before the world witnesses new fireworks in the Middle East, between Iran and Israel. Additionally, it’s likely that Israel’s target list includes further locations in Syria, and possibly even Lebanon against Hezbollah, or on pro-Iran militia units in Iraq.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/11/2021 – 15:00

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