- An Empire Self-Destructs
An Empire Self-Destructs
Authored by Jeff Thomas via InternationalMan.com,
Empires are built through the creation or acquisition of wealth.
The Roman Empire came about through the productivity of its people and its subsequent acquisition of wealth from those that it invaded.
The Spanish Empire began with productivity and expanded through the use of its large armada of ships, looting the New World of its gold.
The British Empire began through localized productivity and grew through its creation of colonies worldwide – colonies that it exploited, bringing the wealth back to England to make it the wealthiest country in the world.
In the Victorian Age, we Brits were proud to say, “There will always be an England,” and “The sun never sets on the British Empire.”
So, where did we go wrong? Why are we no longer the world’s foremost empire? Why have we lost not only the majority of our colonies, but also the majority of our wealth?
Well, first, let’s take a peek back at the other aforementioned empires and see how they fared. Rome was arguably the greatest empire the world has ever seen. Industrious Romans organized large armies that went to other parts of the world, subjugating them and seizing the wealth that they had built up over generations. And as long as there were further conquerable lands just over the next hill, this approach was very effective. However, once Rome faced diminishing returns on new lands to conquer, it became evident that those lands it had conquered had to be maintained and defended, even though there was little further wealth that could be confiscated.
The conquered lands needed costly militaries and bureaucracies in place to keep them subjugated but were no longer paying for themselves. The “colonies” were running at a loss. Meanwhile, Rome itself had become very spoiled. Its politicians kept promising more in the way of “bread and circuses” to the voters, in order to maintain their political office. So, the coffers were being drained by both the colonies and at home. Finally, in a bid to keep from losing their power, Roman leaders entered into highly expensive wars. This was the final economic crippler and the empire self-destructed.
Spain was a highly productive nation that attacked its neighbours successfully and built up its wealth, then became far wealthier when it sailed west, raiding the Americas of the silver and gold that they had spent hundreds of years accumulating. The sudden addition of this wealth allowed the Spanish kings to be lavish to the people and, as in Rome, the Spanish became very spoiled indeed. But once the gold and silver that was coming out of the New World was down to a trickle, the funding for maintaining the empire began to dry up. Worse, old enemies from Europe were knocking at the door, hoping to even old scores. In a bid to retain the empire, the king entered into extensive warfare in Europe, rapidly draining the royal purse and, like Rome, the Spanish Empire self-destructed.
In the Victorian era, the British Empire was unmatched in the world. It entered the industrial revolution and was highly productive. In addition, it was pulling wealth from its colonies in the form of mining, farming and industry. But, like other countries in Europe, it dove into World War I quickly and, since warfare always diminishes productivity at home whilst it demands major expense abroad, the British Empire was knocked down to one knee by the end of the war.
Then, in 1939, the game was afoot again and Britain was drawn into a second world war. By the end of the war, it could still be said that there would always be an England, but its wealth had been drained off and, one by one, its colonies jumped ship. The days of empire were gone.
Into the breach stepped the US. At the beginning of World War I, the US took no part in the fighting, but, as it had experienced its own industrial revolution, it supplied goods, food, and armaments to Britain and her allies. Because the pound and other European currencies could not be trusted not to inflate, payment was made in gold and silver. So the US was expanding its productivity into a guaranteed market, selling at top dollar, using the profits to create larger, more efficient factories, and getting paid in gold.
Then, in 1939, it all happened again. Although the US eventually joined both wars, they did so much later than Britain and her allies. At the end of World War II, the US had a lively young workforce, as they had lost fewer men to the war. They also had modern factories, which had been paid for by other nations, that could now be used to produce peacetime goods for themselves and the rest of the world more efficiently than anyone else.
And (and this is a very big “and”) by 1945 they owned or controlled three quarters of the world’s gold, as they’d drained it away from the warring nations in the early days of the war. This allowed the US to invite the post-war leaders to Bretton Woods to explain that, as the holders of the world’s wealth, they’d dictate what the world’s default currency would be: the dollar.
But this was all threatened by the fact that, when the now-poorer nations of the world sold their goods to the US, they, too, beginning with the French, wished to be paid in gold.
And so, in the subsequent years, the gold in Fort Knox was beginning to travel back to the east, from whence it had come in previous years. In 1971, this flow was shut off, as the US, still the foremost empire, had the power to simply remove all intrinsic value from the dollar and turn it into a fiat currency. Payment in gold ended.
Fast-forward to the post-millennium era and we see that America, like the previous empires, ended its acquisition of gold after World War II, yet its people became spoiled by political leaders who promised ever-increasing bread and circuses. The productivity that led to its initial strength was dying off, and it was spending more than it was bringing in. Finally, it sought to maintain its hegemony through warfare, thereby creating a dramatic drain to its wealth.
Like other empires before it, the US is now on the verge of relinquishing the crown of empire. If there’s any difference this time around, it’s that its collapse will very likely be far more spectacular than that of previous empires. However, just as in previous collapses, those who least understand that the collapse is around the corner are those who are closest to its centre. Clearly, the majority of Americans are worried about their future yet cannot conceive of their country as a second-rate power. And those who hold the reins of that power tend to be the most deluded, delving ever-deeper into debt at an ever-faster rate, whilst expanding welfare and warfare without any concept of how it might all be paid for.
It’s understandable, therefore, that those of us who are on the outside looking in find it easier to observe objectively from afar and see the coming self-destruction of yet another empire.
As stated in the first line of this essay, “empires are built through the creation or acquisition of wealth.” They tend to end through the gradual elimination of the free-market system, the metamorphosis to a welfare state, and, finally, through the destruction of wealth through costly warfare.
Does this indicate the “end of the world”? Not at all. The world did not end with the fall of Rome, Spain, England, or any one of the many other empires. The productive people simply moved to a different geographical location—one that encourages free-market opportunity. The wealth moved with them, then grew, as the free market allowed productive people to make it grow.
Freedom and opportunity still exist and indeed flourish. All that’s changing is the locations where they are to be found.
* * *
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Tyler Durden
Sat, 01/11/2020 – 23:30 - Walmart Testing Robots For Fulfilling Grocery Orders
Walmart Testing Robots For Fulfilling Grocery Orders
A Walmart Supercenter in Salem, New Hampshire, has been the first store to test a new kind of technology that will use robots to collect grocery items for online order fulfillment.
Walmart is one of the largest companies in the world by revenue, with at least 2.3 million employees in the US, has seen rapid increases in labor costs that are forcing unwanted margin compression.
The solution offered by C-suite executives has been a pilot program of automating a warehouse in Salem with the goal of deploying robots to eliminate employees and save costs.
We’re investing in the future of online grocery pickup and delivery with first-of-its-kind technology. Meet Alphabot, the system working alongside associates: https://t.co/zTwv13124M pic.twitter.com/50dWk6Alcc
— Walmart Inc. (@WalmartInc) January 8, 2020
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
The new robot is called Alphabot, and it’s ten times faster than a human worker – this would increase productivity in the warehouse, driving down the need for new hires during peak holiday periods when orders increase.
Alphabot operates inside a 20,000-square-foot warehouse that retrieves refrigerated and frozen items ordered for online grocery.
Once the robot completes an order, it delivers it to a workstation, where a human checks, bags, and delivers the final order.
Brian Roth, a senior manager of pickup automation and digital operations for Walmart, said Alphabot would transform the company’s online grocery operations in the early 2020s.
“By assembling and delivering orders to associates, Alphabot is streamlining the order process, allowing associates to do their jobs with greater speed and efficiency,” Roth said. “Ultimately, this will lower dispense times, increase accuracy and improve the entirety of online grocery. And it will help free associates to focus on service and selling, while the technology handles the more mundane, repeatable tasks.”
Roth expects the robots to increase fulfillment speeds and create more convenience for customers that would rival Amazon.
Walmart said the pilot program in Salem had been underway for six months. The rollout of automating other warehouses across the country could be nearing.
The trend in automation will undoubtedly lead to significant layoffs at Walmart through 2030. As we’ve mentioned before, automation will displace at least 20 million US jobs in the coming years.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 01/11/2020 – 23:00 - In Era Of Big Tech Censorship, Big Pharma Intoxication, & Big Government Surveillance, Soleimani's Death A "Win" For No One
In Era Of Big Tech Censorship, Big Pharma Intoxication, & Big Government Surveillance, Soleimani’s Death A “Win” For No One
Authored by Mike Adams via NaturalNews.com,
To those who are celebrating the death of Qasem Soleimani, I ask this simple question: How does his death make you better off in America?
The First Amendment in America is just as dead as Soleimani, and no one in government — not even Trump — is lifting a finger to defend and restore online free speech. Instead, we all remain enslaved subjects under a fanatical left-wing techno-cult that’s far more insane than Soleimani’s followers ever could have imagined. Yes, Soleimani’s body was shredded by advanced missile technology, but the free speech that once existed in America is no less eviscerated under the malicious censorship war being waged by Google, Facebook, Twitter and YouTube.
Soleimani may be dead, but censorship is alive and well in America, and no one in any position of power is fighting against it.
The Pentagon said Soleimani had to be taken out because he was planning “imminent” combat operations against United States persons. Yet Big Tech has already completed its online combat operations against tens of millions of Americans, having successfully banned, demonetized, smeared, slandered and de-platformed nearly every voice that supports the very freedoms America is supposedly fighting for in the Middle East. This abundantly demonstrates the absurdity of any claim that blowing up people in Iraq or Iran somehow makes us “more free” in America. The claim that the Pentagon is “fighting for freedom” is total propaganda.
If firing missiles at Middle Eastern terrorists made America more free, I would say “fire away!” But Soleimani’s death didn’t end Jack Dorsey’s ban of conservative Twitter accounts, nor Sundar Pichai’s blacklisting of the NaturalNews.com domain from Google, and it has already become abundantly obvious that Hellfire missiles are wasted in Iraq while the real terrorists — such as Sundar Pichai — continue to operate their daily “combat operations” across the ‘net, in total violation of America’s laws and civil rights.
At least the Iranian people had the sense to mourn the death of their leader, no matter how radical his ideas may have been. Yet here in America, almost no one even recognizes they’ve already lost the very freedoms we all pretend our military is fighting for.
It’s all just glorious bulls##t.
Soleimani’s death is not a win for America. It’s a distraction from the massive, gaping losses America is suffering every day right here at home as far more dangerous techno-terrorists run their fanatical oppression schemes across the ‘net, violating the basic human rights of tens of millions of American citizens.
Big Pharma Intoxication
At the same time Soleimani’s body was blown to bits, over 100 million Americans were also taking toxic prescription drugs, including mind-altering drugs that have turned America into a zombie land of over-medicated, chemically-altered “toxizens,” ripe for mass media programming. (Because only a brain damaged zombie could watch CNN’s Brian Stelter for more than a few seconds without wanting to plunge their own head into a blender…)
No matter how much the Pentagon bombs Middle Eastern terrorists, the truth is that America’s mental health is being chemically carpet bombed every single day that Big Pharma is allowed to advertise on television, directly to consumers.
It’s insane. The FDA “legalized” direct-to-consumer advertising in 1997, and since then, Big Pharma has taken over the corporate media, the tech giants and now even retailers like Amazon.com, which is set to become America’s retail pharmacy and drone delivery giant beginning this year.
Think about it: In Iraq, drones deliver Hellfire missiles that explode on impact and destroy a nation’s terrorism network. In America, drones deliver psychiatric drugs that blow away human minds and destroy a nation’s cognitive capacity. Frankly, I’m not sure which weapon is more dangerous to society. Soleimani never poisoned the American people with FDA-approved chemical weapons that are falsely labeled “antidepressants.” And Soleimani didn’t bribe 44,000 doctors with kickbacks and free trips to motivate them to prescribe toxic, deadly drugs to patients who don’t need them.
Soleimani may be dead, but so is America if we don’t stop the mass medication scourge that’s causing widespread brain damage across our own citizens.
Soleimani didn’t kill 20 million people since January 1, 2000, but guess what? The cancer industry did.
Doctors, hospitals, pharmaceuticals and medical mistakes have killed over 15 million people in that same time frame. Yet we dare to talk about “protecting Americans” by bombing one man who couldn’t even dream of such large-scale casualties?
Big Government surveillance threatens us all
Even as Soleimani was being “Hellfired,” nothing at all was being done to hold James Comey, John Brennan and Barack Obama responsible for the outrageous criminal offenses they committed by conspiring to spy on American citizens — and even frame them — in order to try to destroy Donald J. Trump and overthrow the 2016 election.
Soleimani could have only dreamed of carrying out the kind of treasonous crimes against America that were successfully achieved by Comey, Brennan and Obama, among others. (Oh, and should I even mention how Soleimani was Obama’s best friend in the Iran nuke deal that turned out to be a complete hoax anyway?)
Not only did this cabal of deep state traitors carry out deliberate, malicious crimes of illegal surveillance right here at home; Obama actually gave Iran $150 billion to fund their terrorism programs. That included $1.8 billion in physical cash that was stacked on pallets and flown on military cargo planes, delivered directly to Iran. Guess who was the key person in the center of the nuke deal negotiations, by the way? Soleimani, of course. He was Obama’s co-conspirator to transfer cash from the United States to Iran as a way to re-launch Iran’s nuclear weapons development program while funding terrorism on the side.
Yet no handcuffs have been placed on Obama, nor will they ever be, most likely. So illegal surveillance, money laundering and directly funding America’s foreign enemies is somehow okay in America? Are we supposed to clap like ignorant morons when Trump strikes a Middle Eastern terrorist but completely ignore the far more dangerous terrorist who used to occupy the White House?
And if this illegal surveillance — authorized by a corrupt FISA court — is not halted and outlawed in America, then aren’t all of us subject to the same sinister surveillance methods that were used against Trump?
Soleimani may be dead, but no one in America has been held accountable for the crimes of sedition and treason that were deliberately carried out against this nation and our elections process.
Killing Soleimani didn’t stop the deep state here in America, in other words. And that means we’re all still vulnerable to the unaccountable criminal activity that continues to be carried out by outright traitors like Schiff, Nadler, Pelosi and others.
Bombing foreign terrorists is as stupid as punching a corpse and screaming “Victory!”
We’re told by everyone that Soleimani “was a bad guy” who “killed thousands of Americans.”
The exact same thing could be said about the CEOs of the pharmaceutical companies, by the way. Or the CEOs of tech giants, whose malicious censorship actions now deliberately suppress lifesaving information about nutritional cures and anti-cancer foods that could save countless lives every year in America.
If our criteria for who gets bombed has now come down to justifying sudden terminations of bad guys “who killed thousands of Americans,” then theoretically shouldn’t abortion centers be at the top of such a list? Abortion was the leading cause of death in America for all of 2019, and while I don’t wish any violence on abortionists, they quite overtly wish violence — and carry out violence — against innocent human children, both born and unborn.
So Trump kills Soleimani and neocons celebrate, all while Planned Parenthood murders human babies while the Left celebrates. Slap me if I’m off track here, but I still fail to see how anyone is “winning” in all this.
“…[B]efore Trump’s obsession with attacking Iran, the past four US Administrations lied ceaselessly to bring about wars on Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, Serbia, Somalia, and the list goes on,” writes Ron Paul at RonPaulInstitute.org. “At some point, when we’ve been lied to constantly and consistently for decades about a “threat” that we must “take out” with a military attack, there comes a time where we must assume they are lying until they provide rock solid, irrefutable proof. Thus far they have provided nothing. So I don’t believe them.”
America is falling into the abyss of fanaticism and foolishness
The problems in our world today are characterized by too much blood, too much political fanaticism and too much government. We are all living under the thumb of senseless tribalism, political posturing and stupefying incompetence at every level of government itself. And the people running Big Tech, Big Pharma and Big Government are irrational, insane, fanatical lunatics who value nothing but their own power and profit.
The radical Left celebrates infanticide, just as the radical right celebrates blowing up terrorists on the tarmac. Meanwhile, America is falling into the abyss of mass medication, techno-fascism and government tyranny, all while everyone is too distracted by Hollywood loon bags to notice we’ve already lost the war for freedom.
If Trump thinks this is making America great again, then we’re in worse trouble than I thought. America is no better off today than it was last week, and the priorities of not just Trump but seemingly everyone in Washington D.C. are so out of whack with reality that we stare in awe and wonder what planet these people think they’re on. (Oh, and in addition to Hunter Biden collecting millions from Burisma, Chelsea Clinton reportedly bagged $9 million for sitting on the board of some venture capital firm, once again proving that incompetence pays in Washington.)
Hasn’t America already achieved energy independence thanks to all the fracking? So why are we still meddling in the Middle East and wondering why their people kill our soldiers when we are occupying their land with a foreign military presence? If Iran sent troops to occupy America’s cities, you can bet every patriot in America would be targeting them with any weapon at hand. Why are we surprised when the people of other nations carry out acts of violence against our soldiers who occupy their lands?
The hypocrisy in all this is beyond insane. Maybe instead of fighting a war with Iran to prove who has the biggest missiles, we should just bring the troops back home and let the Middle East solve its own problems, which go all the way back to the Old Testament days of the Bible, by the way. There is no solution in the Middle East that’s ever going to come from a Western military force anyway, and those who pretend such solutions exist are laughably delusional.
If we restore freedom, real justice and the rule of law in America, then maybe we’ve earned the right to meddle in other nations’ problems, having proven we are really good at making nations great again. But until that day comes, every dollar spent on foreign interventions is a dollar that isn’t spent here at home, materially impacting the lives of everyday American people who are losing their jobs, their livelihoods, their communities and even their sanity because no one in Washington gives a crap about real America anymore.
That is why we suffer, folks.
At least Soleimani’s suffering is over. For the rest of us, we have to endure this persistent madness until the big collapse mercifully arrives.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 01/11/2020 – 22:30 - World's Tallest Geyser Breaks Eruption Record
World’s Tallest Geyser Breaks Eruption Record
Yellowstone’s Steamboat geyser is the world’s tallest currently active geyser and it has been really active lately.
In 2019, it counted 48 eruptions, according to the USGS Yellowstone Volcano Observatory. As Statista’s Katharina Buchholz details, this number by far surpassed the previous record set in 2018 of 32 eruptions.
You will find more infographics at Statista
The last time the geyser was remotely this active was in 1964, when it counted 29 eruptions. Records published on the National Park Service website go back as far as 1878, also showing that the geyser has in the past gone years without erupting even a single time.
“Yellowstone’s thermal areas are the surface expression of the deeper magmatic system, and they are always changing,” R. Greg Vaughan, a research scientist with USGS, wrote.
“They heat up, they cool down, and they can move around.” And Yellowstone has undergone some changes as of late, such as the eruption of Ear Spring, and the newly active Steamboat Geyser.
A geyser is a vent through which hot water and steam from below the Earth’s surface can erupt. According to geology.com, geysers are extremely rare phenomena that only occur when many conditions are met. As a result there are only about 1000 geysers in the world. Generally, a geyser forms if water accumulates underground in the proximity of magma, is heated up quickly and ejected onto the surface as steam.
Michael Poland, the scientist in charge of the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, said the irregularity of Steamboat is just “a geyser being a geyser.” Poland added: “Steamboat clearly has a mind of its own “and right now it’s putting its independence on display.”
Tyler Durden
Sat, 01/11/2020 – 22:00 - The Politics Behind Banning Russia From The Olympics
The Politics Behind Banning Russia From The Olympics
Authored by Michael Averko via The Strategic Culture Foundation,
There’ve been ongoing propaganda pieces that skirt over some inconvenient realities, for those seeking to unfairly admonish Russia in the Olympic movement.
One case in point is the January 2 Reuters article “Use 1992 Yugoslavia Precedent for Russians in Tokyo – Historian“. With a stated “some Russians“, that article suggestively under-represents the actual number of 2018 Russian Winter Olympians at Pyeongchang, while supporting a hypocritically flawed aspect, having to do with Yugoslavia in 1992.
The downplaying of Russian participation at Pyeongchang, is seemingly done to spin the image of many Russian cheats being kept out. At the suggestion of the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA), the International Olympic Committee (IOC) closely vetted Russians for competition at the 2018 Winter Olympics. In actuality, the 2018 Russian Winter Olympic participation wasn’t so off the mark, when compared to past Winter Olympiads – something which (among other things) puts a dent into the faulty notion that Russia should be especially singled out for sports doping.
At the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics, Russia had its largest ever Winter Olympic contingent of 232, on account of the host nation being allowed a greater number of participants. The 168 Russian Winter Olympians at Pyeongchang is 9 less than the Russians who competed at the 2010 Winter Olympics. Going back further, Russian Winter Olympic participation in 2006 was at 190, with its 2002 contingent at 151, 1998 having 122 and 1994 (Russia’s first formal Winter Olympic appearance as Russia) 113.
The aforementioned Reuters piece references a “historian“, Bill Mallon, who is keen on using the 1992 Summer Olympic banning of Yugoslavia (then consisting of Serbia and Montenegro) as a legitimate basis to ban Russia from the upcoming Summer Olympics. In this instance, Alan Dershowitz’s periodic reference to the “if the shoe is on the other foot” test is quite applicable. Regarding Mallon, “historian” is put in quotes because his historically premised advocacy is very much incomplete and overly propagandistic.
For consistency sake and contrary to Mallon, Yugoslavia should’ve formally participated at the 1992 Summer Olympics. The Olympic banning of Yugoslavia was bogus, given that the IOC and the IOC affiliated sports federations didn’t ban the US and USSR for their respective role in wars, which caused a greater number of deaths than what happened in 1990s Bosnia. The Reuters article at issue references a United Nations resolution for sanctions against Yugoslavia, without any second guessing, in support of the preference (at least by some) to keep politics out of sports as much as possible.
Mallon casually notes that Yugoslav team sports were banned from the 1992 Summer Olympics, unlike individual Yugoslav athletes, who participated as independents. At least two of the banned Yugoslav teams were predicted to be lead medal contenders.
Croatia was allowed to compete at the 1992 Summer Olympics, despite that nation’s military involvement in the Bosnian Civil War. During the 1992 Summer and Winter Olympics, the former USSR participated in individual and team sports as the Unified Team (with the exception of the three former Soviet Baltic republics, who competed under their respective nation). With all this in mind, the ban on team sports from Yugoslavia at the 1992 Summer Olympics, under a neutral name, appears to be hypocritical and ethically challenged.
BS aside, the reality is that geopolitical clout (in the form of might making right), is what compels the banning of Yugoslavia, unlike superpowers engaged in behavior which isn’t less egregious. Although a major world power, contemporary Russia lacks the overall geopolitical influence of the USSR. Historian Stephen Cohen and some others, have noted that post-Soviet Russia doesn’t get the same (for lack of a better word) respect accorded to the USSR. This aspect underscores how becoming freer, less militaristic and more market oriented doesn’t (by default) bring added goodwill from a good number of Western establishment politicos and the organizations which are greatly influenced by them.
On the subject of banning Russia from the Olympics, Canadian sports legal politico Dick Pound, continues to rehash an inaccurate likening with no critical follow-up. (An exception being yours truly.) Between 2016 and 2019, Pound references the Olympic banning of South Africa, as a basis for excluding Russia. South Africa was banned when it had apartheid policies, which prevented that country’s Black majority from competing in organized sports. Russia has a vast multiethnic participation in sports and other sectors.
As previously noted, the factual premise to formally ban Russia from the Olympics remains suspect. The Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) is set to review Russia’s appeal to have the recommended WADA ban against Russia overturned, as Western mass media at large and sports politicos like Pound continue to push for a CAS decision against Russia.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 01/11/2020 – 21:30 - "I Am Ready, Able & Willing To Defend Myself": Mob Rat Sends Threatening 'Open Letter' To Former Associates
“I Am Ready, Able & Willing To Defend Myself”: Mob Rat Sends Threatening ‘Open Letter’ To Former Associates
In a move that’s seemingly unprecedented in the history of American organized crime, a gangster-turned-government witness has published an open letter to his former criminal associates, warning them that if they’re thinking about trying to whack him, they should probably reconsider – for their own sake.
Former Genovese family soldier Michael “Cookie” D’Urso penned the letter, which was first shared with Gang Land News, a premium site that aggregates news about the American Mafia. D’Urso addressed the letter to several ‘former associates’ who were ‘overheard’ by law enforcement sources discussing D’Urso’s new identity and whereabouts.
First, some background: D’Urso was a mob soldier in the early 1990s when he survived a bullet to the head, allegedly fired over a gambling debt during a late-night card game at a social club in Williamsburg. One of his cousins was killed in the incident, but D’Urso survived.
D’Urso, more than 20 years ago
He took it on the chin when his Genovese bosses forbade him from retaliating for the shooting. But it wasn’t until he caught wind that then-acting Genovese boss Farby Serpico had threatened to have him whacked that he decided to turn state’s witness, becoming one of only a handful of Genovese family members who have violated their oath of secrecy.
His testimony eventually helped the Fed’s jail more than 70 mob members and associates, including the current Genovese boss Liborio Bellomo.
Of course, all that was more than 20 years ago. D’Urso, now 49, has been living under a new identity provided by the witness protection program since then.
But, as he acknowledged in the letter, D’Urso still ventures into his old neighborhood from time to time. It’s during these visits that he warned any passing wiseguys should think twice if they think they’re going to boost their rep by taking D’Urso out.
In his letter, D’Urso insists that those who “know him” understand that he only cooperated to save his own life from being taken out by rivals for whom he had no respect, and that he would have done “100 years” in prison “for the right people.”
Even if he’s not armed with a gun, D’Urso warned that he’s a black belt in ju-jitsu and mixed martial arts, and that anyone who attacks him “will need a gun” – a bat or a knife simply won’t do it.
If the bosses are intent on rubbing him out – so be it, D’Urso said. But anyone involved in the plot should keep in mind that they will likely be caught and prosecuted. And their bosses could eventually face life imprisonment.
A LETTER TO THE MOB:
This letter is a heads up to the individuals who were seen and overheard during the Christmas holidays at the TBar Steak & Lounge on the Upper East Side talking about me.
Law enforcement folks told me you were talking about my new identity and where I might be living today. I hope that 20 years later, no one would be so stupid to get himself into very serious trouble over me.
While I still have some respect for the life I once lived and the life that some of my old friends and acquaintances still choose to live, rest assured I WILL NEVER GET CAUGHT SLEEPING AGAIN. I am ready, able and willing to defend my family and myself. Also, I have very capable ex-law enforcement friends with gun permits who are with me all the time. And don’t forget, there are cameras everywhere today that can track people to and from any location.
As you know, I didn’t create this mess. I was extremely loyal until my life was in danger for the SECOND time. The people that got in trouble because of me can thank Farby for threatening me on the phone and putting me in the position that led to me cooperating. What boss gets on the phone to actually threaten someone? Did he not expect a response? As a street guy was I supposed to just let someone I don’t know abuse me? No f- -king way.
I hate the fact that some of my Bronx friends got caught up in my cooperation. They are legitimate tough guys. They know who they are. If I had been with them before, I believe they would have been by my side the second I got shot and would have helped me get even. I am truly sorry you guys got wrapped up in the investigation.
There was only one person who raised a finger to try and help me get revenge when I got shot, and my cousin got killed.
Unfortunately he [Editor:Vito Guzzo] got 38 years in prison. He was arrested before I cooperated. He was facing the death penalty and I paid for his capital punishment attorney while I was cooperating. The government didn’t need me to convict him.
When Sammy Meatballs [Editor:Salvatore Aparo] came to me with tears in his eyes and said, “If I send for you don’t come,” I knew that Farby was going to have me killed. I had no choice but to reach out to the government. Those of you who truly knew me know that I would have done 100 years for the right people and the right reasons.
There could not be a brotherhood without loyalty. But no real man can ever accept being told not to seek retribution when someone shoots you in the head and kills your cousin.
I understand why people have to act like tough guys when my name gets brought up. I would do the same if I was in their shoes. But just because I have been respectful and not rubbed anything in any of your faces, do NOT think that I will go on the defense if I see any of you. I am not running and I don’t need a weapon to protect myself. I am a black belt in Brazilian Ju-Jitsu and have been training in mixed martial arts for over 14 years. A bat and a knife won’t help you so you will have to use a gun.
But if you, and your bosses, feel that getting me is worth risking life in prison, then come find me. Just keep in mind that your bosses will get prosecuted for the murder as well.
And rest assured that if I feel my life is threatened, I WILL BE ON OFFENSE, NOT DEFENSE. I FEAR NO ONE AND NEVER WILL. And remember that there is no statute of limitations for the murder of a federal witness. And you’d be surprised to find out how many confidential informants there are in your circle, who would love to tell the feds they heard about a murder plot to kill me.
To the gangsters in my neighborhood: If you stop and think, you will realize that I left all of you out of my cooperation on purpose. I didn’t hurt any of you. I didn’t seek you out. I could have started a beef to draw you out. But I didn’t want to see anyone in the neighborhood get in trouble whether we were on good terms or not.
I bring this up because I still come in and out of the neighborhood every so often. If you see me, do yourself a favor and do not confront me. It may look like I’m alone but I’m not. Again, I am respectful but fear no one and you might not be happy with the outcome of a confrontation.
Everyone should just focus on their families, their well-being, and staying out of jail. Continue to make money the smart way and leave the violence that gets you life in prison alone. For those of you that have money, find ways to keep it and for those of you that don’t, find ways to make it without violence. Times are different today.
Cookie
And for anybody who thinks the five families aren’t still active in the New York area, one recent report from NBC New York delves into how the mafia has changed and evolved since John Gotti’s imprisonment in the early 1990s.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 01/11/2020 – 21:00 - Deep Breaths As We Go From Crisis To Status Quo
Deep Breaths As We Go From Crisis To Status Quo
Authored by Peter van Buren via TheAmericanConservative.com,
History will judge the long-term impact of the death of Qassem Soleimani. In the short-to-medium term, let’s step back from the fear-mongering and instead focus on the geopolitical factors that make the large-scale war many fear unlikely.
For Iran to provoke such a war is suicide. They have no incentive to escalate to that level, though they may conduct attacks consistent with previous decades. Those attacks, and the U.S. responses, will in the current political and media climate (#WWIII was trending on Twitter and frightened youngsters crashed the Selective Service website worried a draft is forthcoming) consume our attention far beyond their actual impact. But they will in reality cycle inside the rough rules of what diplomats call escalation dominance, the tit-for-tat trading of controlling the moment, trying to stay under the victims’ threshold of response. Emotion is for amateurs.
The most recent series of events bear this out. According to our government officials, Iran and/or its proxies have fired on U.S. bases in Iraq multiple times, initiating the current escalation that included Soleimani’s assassination and this week’s missiles launched from inside Iran at American bases at Al Asad and in Erbil. Yet according to one long-time regional observer, “This doesn’t yet feel like a major escalation. Iran can claim it took revenge. Feels more like an escalation to deescalate.” Among other signals, the missiles’ long flight time, over some 200 miles, gave obvious warning to areas already on alert.
Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif tweeted that Iran was finished fighting and was not actively pursuing further escalation. Trump undertook no immediate counterattack, and in a speech spoke only of further economic sanctions alongside some vague thoughts on future agreements. The two countries’ actions add up to a collective “we’re done if you’re done.”
This was all to be expected. Iranian leaders know their country can be destroyed from the air. As only a regional power, it suffers from a massive technological disadvantage in any direct conflict with the U.S. It is far beyond the days in which Marines were driven from Somalia after “Black Hawk Down” in 1993, or out of Lebanon after the 1983 bombing of the Marine barracks by Iranian proxy Hezbollah. Unlike years past, America is willing to take a punch to throw back two. Iran’s political leaders are aware of the limits of asymmetric warfare in this world, especially because America’s lack of dependence on Persian Gulf oil means 2020 is not 1991.
Iran, under sanctions, is near totally dependent on what oil it can export. Oil requires massive infrastructure, all of which can be bombed. Iran’s military operates in large part out of fixed sites. Its navy is small and its bases can be destroyed from the air, its harbors mined from above and below the water. Iran’s military strength is ranked 14th globally below Brazil and Italy; the U.S. is ranked first.
I’ve been to Iran. I saw the martyrs memorial outside the main marketplace in the holy city of Mashhad, with the names of Iranians who died fighting the U.S. in Iraq from 2003 forward. Soleimani has already joined the pantheon of martyrs as of this week, but he is neither the first nor the last soldier to die in this ongoing long war.
Iran’s government, meanwhile, is a tense coalition of elected civilians, unelected military, and theocrats. None would stay in power following a major war. They face an almost schizophrenic population, happy to chant “death to America” but equally open to the idea—albeit on more liberal terms than five American presidents, Republican and Democrat, have been willing to offer—of finding a way out from under sanctions that would release their potential and open them to the world.
Iran understands its limits. Think about the provocations it has been forced to endure without escalation: U.S. troops landing in-country in a failed hostage rescue in 1980; U.S. support for Iraq in using weapons of mass destruction and the provision of intelligence that allowed the Iraqis to rain missiles on Iranian cities in the 1980s; the U.S. shooting down an Iranian civilian aircraft, killing some 300 innocents in 1988; and the U.S. invading and occupying Iran’s eastern border (Iraq 2003) and western approaches (Afghanistan 2001) and maintaining bases there.
In 2003, when Iran reached out following initial American military successes, George W. Bush flippantly declared them part of an Axis of Evil. U.S. forces then raided an Iranian diplomatic office in Iraq and arrested several staffers in 2007. The U.S. has kept crippling economic sanctions in place for decades, conducted the Stuxnet cyberattack in 2010 to destroy Iranian nuclear centrifuges, and initiated another cyberattack in 2019—never mind what the Israelis have done covertly. Nothing led to a wider war. Soleimani died in context.
Iraq, politically and geographically in the middle, has every reason to help calm things down. Despite the rhetoric, the Iraqi government needs the U.S. in situ as a balance against Iranian hegemony and as a hedge against the rebirth of ISIS. The recently passed, non-binding resolution for U.S. troops to leave Iraq carries no weight. It was passed by a divided government in caretaker status, applies only to the withdrawal of the anti-ISIS joint task force, and lacks both a timetable to happen and a mechanism to enforce it. Even that symbolic vote was boycotted by Iraq’s Sunni and Kurdish (so much for losing the Kurds as allies) legislators, illustrating the difficulties a coalition Iraqi government faces in getting anything done.
Should Iraq somehow find a way to move against the U.S. troop presence, promised American sanctions on Iraqi oil would devastate the economy and likely topple a government already besieged by its citizens of all backgrounds for failing to provide necessary basic services. The $200 million in direct aid the U.S. paid Iraq last year is a tiny portion of the billions flowing in from Washington via loans, military assistance, training funds, etc. That all would be missed. Iraq needs a relative state of peace and stability to hold on. It will make ceremonial anti-American actions to appease its Shia majority and make it appear it is not being ordered around by the Americans it loves to hate, but the U.S. is not be driven out of Iraq.
America itself has no reason to escalate any of this into a real war. Iran is strategically more or less where it has been for some time and there is no U.S.-side driver to change that now. Chaos in Tehran serves no purpose, and war would spiral the nation into a series of internal struggles spiced with fissionable material that has no place in a foreign policy calculus in an election year at home. Trump gets the political credit (84 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents approve of the strike) from his base for a tough-guy move with none of the sticky problems a wider conflict would create. His post-missile attack remarks position him as open to new talks of some kind.
To accept the U.S. will start a major war assumes a fully irrational actor unfettered. Many people want to believe that for political purposes, but the hard facts of the last three years say that when it gets to this strategic level, Trump has not acted irrationally. Same this time: he did not act irrationally, or even provocatively, in the aftermath of the Iranian missile launches.
It’s hard to point to any irrational act, a decision made that is wholly without logic or reason, a choice Trump knew would have dire consequences yet went with anyway. Forget the tweets; they have never added up to much more than fodder for pop psychologists, impulsive remarks not followed by impulsive acts. Absolutely none of the apocalyptic predictions have come to pass. See North Korea, where Trump was supposed to start World War III two years ago, or the trade wars that were to destroy the global economy, or any of the other pseudo-crises. In sum, no new wars. Economy chugging along. Trump manipulating Democrats into practically putting Che-style Soleimani T-shirts up on Etsy.
The current commander-in-chief is likely to start a war? He’s the only recent president who hasn’t.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 01/11/2020 – 20:30 - Home Prices Stall In Bay Area After Seven Year Tech Party
Home Prices Stall In Bay Area After Seven Year Tech Party
Despite all the new wealth created by tech IPOs in 2019, home prices in the Bay Area are stagnating at potentially dangerous peaks.
According to real estate firm Compass, the median price of a home in San Francisco rose 1.3% Y/Y to $1.6 million, the smallest growth since 2012.
Compass said the median price for homes in Santa Clara County, which includes San Jose, Santa Clara, Cupertino, Palo Alto, Sunnyvale, Stanford, and Santa Clara, collectively saw 6% declines to $1.26 million.
Last spring, CNBC was drumming up the narrative that tech IPOs, including Uber, Slack, Pinterest, and Zoom Video Communications, would boost the housing market with new buyers. However, many of the IPOs went bust last year and didn’t create a new buyer pool as home prices are at danger of reversing from record-high levels.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller San Francisco Home Price NSA Index shows that the average change in the value of the residential real estate in the region has been slipping since July 2018.
After a seven-year tech party and the Federal Reserve injecting obscene amounts of liquidity into the market to fuel bubbles — it seems that Bay Area home prices could have hit a structural high. This means a correction could be nearing.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 01/11/2020 – 20:00 - Bitcoin Can Gain 100% In 2020 – Halving Not Priced In, Says Fundstrat
Bitcoin Can Gain 100% In 2020 – Halving Not Priced In, Says Fundstrat
Authored by William Suberg via CoinTelegraph.com,
Bitcoin can deliver 100% returns to investors in 2020 and may rise significantly in the five months until May’s block reward halving, a new report claims.
image courtesy of CoinTelegraph
In its forthcoming 2020 Crypto Outlook, market research firm Fundstrat Global Advisors said it believed that the halving was not yet “priced into” the Bitcoin price.
Fundstrat expects over 100% BTC gains
The report is currently only available to the firm’s clients, with key findings uploaded to Twitter by co-founder Tom Lee on Jan 10.
“For 2020, we see several positive convergences that enhance the use case and also the economic model for crypto and Bitcoin — thus, we believe Bitcoin and crypto total return should exceed that of 2019,” an excerpt states.
Fundstrat continued:
“In other words, we see strong probability that Bitcoin gains >100% in 2020.”
The factors Lee and others identified focus on geopolitical tensions and the upcoming United States presidential elections, in addition to the halving.
Fundstrat took its cue from events last year, noting BTC/USD hit its high point amid tensions around Facebook’s Libra digital currency and negative comments on Bitcoin by president Donald Trump.
Bull catalyst or “non-event”?
As Cointelegraph reported, geopolitical factors form the basis for other commentators’ bullish Bitcoin price scenarios for this year.
As regards the impact of the halving, however, pundits are less united. Last month, Jason Williams, co-founder at digital asset fund Morgan Creek Digital, said May would prove to be a “non-event” for Bitcoin.
Williams appeared to contradict fellow co-founder Anthony Pompliano, who a month previously had claimed that even at $8,750, Bitcoin was yet to have the halving priced in.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 01/11/2020 – 19:30 - Elon Musk Tweets That "Bitcoin" Is Not His Safe Word
Elon Musk Tweets That “Bitcoin” Is Not His Safe Word
By now, you probably know that Elon Musk appears to have knocked up his girlfriend, Grimes.
And just when you thought that was more than enough information on the billionaire’s personal life, you fire up the Bloomberg terminal and wind up staring at this:
The headline comes from an Elon Musk tweet where the CEO, who is probably delirious with joy after watching his stock hit all time highs while facing zero accountability from the NHTSA, tweeted “Bitcoin is *not* my safe word”.
A “safe word” is, of course, a word used by sexual partners during rough sex. It’s a proverbial “tap out” when things make the transition from playful to harmful. You know, like the Fed with monetary policy over the last 20 years.
And regardless of whether Musk is serious or not remains to be seen, but that didn’t stop CCN from running an article with the title “Elon Musk Likes Shouting ‘Bitcoin’ While Having Sex”.
And just like that, the voices of millions of Bloomberg terminal users cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced.
We can’t tell if it’s a commentary from Musk on cryptocurrency. CCN notes “in the past, Musk has described bitcoin as quite brilliant.He’s even had his Twitter account suspended for half-jokingly urging one of his followers to buy the cryptocurrency.” In April he tweeted, “Cryptocurrency is my safe word.”
Regardless, it seems like more time well spent on Twitter for the world’s favorite boy genius. We wonder how those 100 hour work weeks are still coming along.
And for us, this Tweet and the pregnancy news amount to far more Elon Musk sex-related news than we would ever want.
But hey – if we had gotten away with all of the lies and deceit that Musk has over the last decade while the market rewards our cash incinerating company with a nearly $100 billion enterprise value, we’d be horny too.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 01/11/2020 – 19:00 - Mrs. Clinton & The Amazing Amnesia Of Delusional Democrats
Mrs. Clinton & The Amazing Amnesia Of Delusional Democrats
Authored by James Fite via LibertyNation.com,
Back in 2014, Charles Barkley told James Harden during a Foot Locker commercial obviously inspired by Democrats in the Swamp that “all the greats have short memories.” He didn’t know anything about any of the unfortunate events Harden mentioned, just that all the greats have short memories, and even passed to Scottie Pippen for confirmation. “I sure do,” Pippen assured Harden. “And I’m the greatest Chicago Bull of all time.” “And that’s how it’s done,” Barkley replied.
That’s how it’s done in the Swamp, too. But in politics, it isn’t only “the greats” who suffer this amazing case of mass amnesia.
Iran: What Would Hillary Do?
As tensions rise between the United States and Iran, the delusional Democrats who were “with her” back in 2016 are coming out of the social media woodwork to say, “I told you so.” Trump’s starting a war with Iran – never mind the fact that his aggressive moves against the Middle Eastern nation have all come after attacks by Iran or Iran-backed groups. If a country attacks the United States, what is the president supposed to do, just sit back and let Americans die like Obama and Clinton did in Libya?
But never mind for a moment whether Trump should take action. Let’s focus on the Cult of Clinton and their claims that Madam President would have done better. Short memories: All the greats have them. In 2008, back when then-Senator Clinton wanted to be president the first time, she made it clear that, if she won, any Iranian attacks on Israel meant war with the U.S.
“We didn’t want Trump to attack Iran, so we voted for this psychopath instead” pic.twitter.com/lk4wcUbD0a
— Yusuf (@yusufneedsarest) January 3, 2020
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To be fair to Mrs. Clinton, she was talking about Iran attacking Israel, not the United States. So, perhaps she wouldn’t have cared as much had the lives lost been American. She certainly didn’t balk as secretary of state when Obama allowed Iranian aggression to go unpunished. And while we’re on the subject of short memories, how about that love for Israel back in ’08?
The Majority Wants A Wall – Every Majority
Iran and war aren’t the only issues on which Democrats appear to be suffering from amnesia. In 2016, Donald Trump said we need a wall between the United States and Mexico. Why? Well, obviously Trump the Terrible hates anyone who isn’t white. What an evil, sick man. But what about just ten years earlier, when Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and Chuck Schumer – all senators at the time – voted for the Secure Fence Act. Schumer defended this – and condemned such verbal trickery as calling illegal immigrants “undocumented workers” – as recently as 2009. It seems every majority wants a wall – or at least a really good fence. It’s only politically expedient for Democrats to oppose border security when their guy isn’t in the White House.
Chuck Schumer in 2009:
-Americans don’t like illegal immigration
-“Illegal immigration is wrong”
-People illegally in the U.S. are “illegal aliens,” not “undocumented”
-Border fence made the southern border “far more secure…created a significant barrier to illegal immigration” pic.twitter.com/zoVyEgdrTC— Ryan Saavedra (@RealSaavedra) December 28, 2018
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Intellectual Dishonesty And Dredging Up The Past
But all that happened more than a decade ago, you might say. It’s old news. And you would be right; it is. But that doesn’t mean it’s no longer relevant. Sure, some people do change their perspectives over time. But it’s a little suspicious that Democrats only changed their minds regarding the issues on which Donald Trump decided to agree with them.
Hillary Clinton
A phrase that pops up in the conversation from time to time when conservatives bring up these old videos is “intellectually dishonest.” As if anyone were trying to pass off videos of a 2009 Chuck Schumer calling for tougher border security or a 2008 Hillary Clinton threatening war with Iran as recent. The intellectual dishonesty is in flip-flopping on the issues to back whatever stance seems most likely to win an election.
It’s the delusional Democrats who are being intellectually dishonest this time – or just suffering from the short memories of the greats – when they tweet #IVotedForHillary. War with Iran would have been just as likely with President Clinton in 2016 as it is now that we have President Trump – and it would have likely happened even sooner had we elected President Clinton in 2008.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 01/11/2020 – 18:30 - Ghosn's Fortune Has Shrunk By Almost Half Since His Arrest
Ghosn’s Fortune Has Shrunk By Almost Half Since His Arrest
Since Carlos Ghosn’s ‘Great Escape’ from house arrest in Tokyo over the new year holiday, reporters from around the world have been scrambling to dig up any details they can about the planning, execution and consequences of the now-legendary extraction operation, which was reportedly masterminded by an ex-Green Beret with a checkered past (and a reputation for rescuing kidnapping victims around the world).
Ghosn has refused to offer any more details about the planning and execution of the escape, other than saying that he numbed himself during the journey. In the days since that press conference, some signs of strain have surfaced between Ghosn and his new host country, Lebanon, which yesterday announced a travel ban preventing Ghosn from leaving Lebanon while an INTERPOL red notice is still active.
Carlos Ghosn
While we might not learn any more details about Ghosn’s escape – at least not any time soon – a team of Bloomberg reporters have produced what seems to us like a realistic tally of the former auto titan’s expenses.
They determined that in addition to the $14 million in bail he forfeited by fleeing Japan, the operation to win his freedom might have cost another $15 million.
This includes $350,000 for the chartered jet that flew Ghosn from Osaka to Istanbul. The rest likely went to pay expenses and fees for a team of up to 25 people, who may have taken as long as six months to plan the operation. The enormous cost has seen Ghosn’s fortune shrink by roughly 40% since his arrest more than a year ago at Tokyo’s Haneda Airport.
Still, Ghosn’s net worth is still believed to be roughly $70 million – down from roughly $120 million at the time of his first court appearance in Japan. And looking ahead, Ghosn will likely rack up millions of dollars in legal fees pretty quickly as France investigates possible misuse of funds by Ghosn to host a lavish party at Versailles. Nissan is also trying to evict him from the pink villa in Beirut where he is staying. That villa was purchased and maintained by the company for the benefit of the CEO.
Ghosn’s downfall had already prompted Nissan and Renault, the two members of the Nissan-Renault-Mitsubishi alliance where Ghosn exercised the most control, to cancel some $140 million in retirement benefits that would have gone to the former CEO.
Though the general public wasn’t well-acquainted with Ghosn before his escape from Japan, the former CEO’s high-stakes antics has captured the public’s interest. Many have speculated that Netflix & HBO will rush to develop series about Ghosn’s escape from Japan, and a side-scrolling videogame entitled “Ghone is gone” has been uploaded to popular video-gaming service Steam.
Meanwhile, Ghosn is said to be planning a tell-all book, according to Japanese public broadcaster NHK.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 01/11/2020 – 18:00 - SoftBank Is Beginning The New Decade How It Ended The Last
SoftBank Is Beginning The New Decade How It Ended The Last
Japanese conglomerate SoftBank Group is the the 36th-largest public company in the world and second-largest in Japan. SoftBank founder and CEO, Masayoshi Son, was even briefly the wealthiest person in the world in 2000 before losing 90% of his wealth when the dot-com bubble popped.
SoftBank is mostly known in the U.S. for its investments in startups through its SoftBank Vision Fund. The Vision Fund, which was founded in 2017, is the largest technology-focused venture capital fund in the world with more than $100 billion in capital.
Son revealed last year that LPs in the fund were already up 45%, after fees, two years after the fund’s inception. The Vision Fund booked successful investments in Flipkart, which sold to Walmart for $16 billion, and Nvidia. The Vision Fund’s notable investments in Uber, WeWork and Slack were performing well on paper until they came crashing down.
Last year saw the valuations of the Vision Fund’s largest investments take losses reminiscent of the days when Son was the world’s wealthiest person.
Early last year, Uber, which had hoped to achieve an IPO valuation of $120 billion, went public at a valuation of around $75 billion. This was a disappointment to SoftBank, which invested in Uber at valuations of $48 billion and $70 billion. Uber’s current market capitalization values the ride-hailing company at approximately $58 billion.
Most notably, SoftBank dumped more than $10 billion into WeWork, driving its valuation all the way up to $47 billion before the company’s epic collapse. The IPO never happened and SoftBank ended up throwing another $10 billion at WeWork to acquire over 70% of the company in a deal valuing it at about $8 billion.
The investments pushed SoftBank to its first quarterly loss in 14 years as the Vision Fund booked an $8.9 billion loss. “My investment judgment was poor in many ways and I am reflecting deeply on that,” Son said following the earnings release.
Late last year SoftBank racked up another loss. The Vision Fund took a loss on the $300 million it invested in dog-walking app Wag at a $650 million valuation. The company simultaneously laid off 80% of its workforce. Son hinted at another loss looming at Wag during SoftBank’s earnings release. “Is there any other similar concern? In fact, yes, there is,” Son said. “Like a dog-walking company and other portfolio companies, we may see similar problems surfacing.”
The new decade finds SoftBank back where it closed out the last one.
Zume, which landed a $375 million investment from SoftBank, is laying off 50% of its workforce as it pivots from making pizza with robots to food packaging. SoftBank invested in Zume at a $1 billion valuation, which was nearly five times the startup’s previous valuation of just $218 million.
SoftBank’s reputation is now taking a hit in the startup community as the Vision Fund has walked away from a few startups that it had previously offered term sheets to. Some speculate SoftBank walked from the deals because the Vision Fund 2 hasn’t raised outside capital yet. Others believe SoftBank may still be “shell shocked” by the WeWork collapse.
As the Vision Fund closed out the decade by pushing SoftBank to its first quarterly loss in 14 years, the last thing Son wants to see is the Vision Fund’s struggles carry over into the new decade.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 01/11/2020 – 17:30 - Putin & Merkel Urge All Parties Back To Iran Deal – Vow To Preserve "By All Means"
Putin & Merkel Urge All Parties Back To Iran Deal – Vow To Preserve “By All Means”
Amid the ongoing US-Iran crisis German Chancellor Angela Merkel met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Saturday in her first visit since May 2018. Crucially it also comes the same day Iran’s leadership admitted to shooting down a Ukrainian passenger plane amid launching ballistic missiles on US bases in Iraq, killing all 176 passengers and crew.
Also topping the agenda for the Saturday afternoon working meeting was Syria and Libya. But the Iran nuclear deal was front and center, with both leaders agreeing they must seek to preserve the 2015 JCPOA “by all means”.
Merkel stressed to reporters soon after coming out of talks with Putin that “everything must be done to keep the JCPOA going” and committed to using “all the diplomatic tools to help this agreement.” She explained further, “It is not perfect but it is still an agreement and it involves responsibilities for all the parties involved. And we want to keep it.”
Angela Merkel met Vladimir Putin Saturday afternoon, via the AP. “We agreed that we should do anything to preserve the deal, the JCPOA. Germany is convinced that Iran should not acquire or have nuclear weapons,” Merkel said during a joint press conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
This after within the past two weeks as Washington and Tehran essentially enter open war, Iran’s leaders have declared they consider “no limits” are currently in place on their nuclear energy program, which they’ve said remains for peaceful purposes.
Putin also said the “tremendously important” deal must be preserved and that all parties must “come back to the deal” in statements chiefly aimed at the United States. Putin said to reporters, according to the early Russian media translation:
“After the US refused to abide by the agreement, Iran announced suspension of its obligations as well. I would like to underscore that these obligations were voluntarily embraced by Iran. Iran is ready to come back to full compliance with the JPCOA.”
And addressing the European initiative to set up a “SWIFT alternative” special payment vehicle for Iran, Putin expressed optimism that INSTEX would seen be “be up and running” and the European nations “would deliver on their promise to create an independent mechanism free of the dollar influence.”
Though the Ukraine crisis has remained a point of tension and damaged relations between Moscow and Berlin, both have lately been critical of the January 2nd US drone strike on Iran’s Gen. Soleimani.
The Russian Foreign Ministry previously condemned it as “reckless” while German Foreign Ministry spokesperson Rainer Breul somewhat more ambiguously agreed, saying that “information that would allow us to see that the US attack was based on international law.”
On Friday the Trump administration imposed new economic sanctions on Iran, however, most analysts are now in agreement that the end result of the past two chaotic weeks of soaring tensions, most especially the Soleimani assassination, will only push Iran further away from the 2015 agreement brokered under Obama.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 01/11/2020 – 17:00 - "Death To Liars!" Iran Swept By Wave Of Protests Demanding Ayatollah Quit Over Airplane Downing
“Death To Liars!” Iran Swept By Wave Of Protests Demanding Ayatollah Quit Over Airplane Downing
Mass protests have again broken out in Iran at the end of a chaotic week for the country, capped by the early Saturday admission and apology for the military accidentally shooting down a Ukrainian passenger plane, killing all 176 people on board.
Additionally, it appears that the British ambassador in Tehran, Rob Macaire, was arrested shortly after photographing the protests. Iranian state sources are alleging he was helping to “organize” and incite the protests.
The UK ambassador to Iran Rob Macaire has been arrested during the protests in Tehran on Saturday, Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency reported.
Macaire was present during the Saturday protests in front of Tehran’s Amir Kabir University and was arrested then, Tasnim’s report said.
The UK Ambassador to #Iran has been arrested while photographing current protests taking place in #Tehran related to #PS752 and other grievances.
— Strategic Sentinel (@StratSentinel) January 11, 2020
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Though he’s reportedly already been released, the incident is likely to spark a major diplomatic row between the UK and Iran, given it’s almost unheard of to arrest a country’s highest diplomatic official.
Mourning turns to protests in Tehran. Image via AFP. In the first major protests since the Jan.2 US assassination of IRGC Quds Force chief Qasem Soleimani, angry student-led demonstrations broke out in front of Tehran’s Amir Kabir university demanding that Iran’s leaders, including Ayatollah Khamenei step down over their initially concealing the truth about the airline downing.
“Commander-in-chief [Khamenei] resign, resign!” videos posted to Twitter showed Saturday.
However, their size in the hundreds paled in comparison with prior anti-government protests in the tens of thousands last November across multiple cities, which actually saw possibly hundreds killed in clashes with police which often involved live gunfire to put down the crowds by security forces.
Students at Amir Kabir University in Tehran chant against Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei calking him a killer who can not lead. #IranPlaneCrash ✈️ pic.twitter.com/pbkqzBy5sn
— Negar Mortazavi (@NegarMortazavi) January 11, 2020
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In a rarity, Iranian state media also acknowledged the new anti-government unrest fueled by news that it was Iran’s Revolutionary Guards which shot down the passenger jet, and not “mechanical failure” as was initially claimed.
As Reuters describes of the semi-official Fars report:
The report said the demonstrators on the street also ripped up pictures of Qassem Soleimani, the prominent commander of the Guard’s Quds Force who was killed in a U.S. drone strike.
The agency, widely seen as close to the Guards, carried pictures of the gathering and a torn banner of Soleimani. It said the protesters numbered about 700 to 1,000 people.
Video also showed moments where police rushed in to attempt to quash the growing protests, which could turn into bigger demonstrations Sunday.
Iranian forces lashing out at protestors again… pic.twitter.com/TfCqRST6uG
— Bessma Momani (@b_momani) January 11, 2020
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One regional report cited an Iranian protester’s grievances as follows:
“They were so careful not to kill any American in their revenge for Soleimani. But they did not close the airport? This shows how much this regime cares for Iranians,” said Iranian citizen Mira Sedaghati after the Iranian military admitted mistakenly shooting down the jet.
It also appears Iran’s significant political opposition in exile is seizing on the dramatic events of this week, with exiled Persian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi issuing a statement on Saturday saying, “This is not human error. This is a crime against humanity.”
He added in the Twitter statement: “He who has irresponsibly empowered his thugs to fire at will at innocents bears full responsibility. Enough is Enough. Khamenei and his regime must go.”
BREAKING:
Public mourning gatherings turn into protests in #Iran. Angry crowds chanting, “Death to the liars.”#IranPlaneCrash #UkrainePlaneCrash pic.twitter.com/20jPNia6WJ— Farnaz Fassihi (@farnazfassihi) January 11, 2020
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“Vigils that were held near Amir Kabir University quickly turned into anti-government protests with people calling for the IRGC to leave the country,” an Al Jazeera correspondent reported from the scene.
#IranProtests
Security forces & protestors standoff.
“Our hands are empty, put your guns down,” the crowd chants.#UkrainianPlaneCrash pic.twitter.com/7R994BJ03J— Farnaz Fassihi (@farnazfassihi) January 11, 2020
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Meanwhile, following Iran’s rare apology which included Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif saying on Twitter that “human error at time of crisis caused by US adventurism led to disaster,” Ukraine’s President Zelenksy issued a stern rebuke of Iran’s handling of the crisis.
“The morning was not good today but it brought along the truth,” Zelensky said in a written statement early Saturday morning.
#Iran Jan-11- #Tehran,
The state security forces shoot tear gas into the crowd of students outside #AmirKabir University. Ridiculing the regime the voice says:
“they are mistakenly shooting tear gas at mourners” referring to the regime saying the #IranPlaneshotdown was a mistake pic.twitter.com/iMhhFAo9kU— Maryam Khoramshahi (@Maryamtaban12) January 11, 2020
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“But we insist on the full acceptance of guilt. We expect Iran to pledge readiness to carry out a full and open investigation, to prosecute those responsible, to return the bodies of the dead, to pay compensations, to extend official apologies via diplomatic channels,” the Ukrainian president wrote.
The voice of the Iranian people is clear. They are fed up with the regime’s lies, corruption, ineptitude, and brutality of the IRGC under @khamenei_ir‘s kleptocracy. We stand with the Iranian people who deserve a better future. pic.twitter.com/tBOjv9XsIG
— Secretary Pompeo (@SecPompeo) January 11, 2020
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Among the many Iranians killed were also 11 Ukrainians as well as 63 people from Canada.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has already seized on the protests, tweeting they were a sign that the Iranian people “are fed up with the regime’s lies, corruption, ineptitude and brutality”.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 01/11/2020 – 16:30 - Institutions, Retail And Algos Are Now All-In, Just As Buybacks Tumble
Institutions, Retail And Algos Are Now All-In, Just As Buybacks Tumble
When it comes to gauging market euphoria, one place to find the current state of retail investor (super) sentiment, is the CNN Fear and Greed Index, which over the past three weeks, has printed at all time series highs.
What about institutional sentiment? Well, contrary to several goalseeked indicators which erroneously repeat week after week that whales and other prominent institutional traders remain “on the fence” despite the now daily record highs in the S&P, the truth is that virtually everyone is now all in: from simple human-driven discretionary, to macro funds, all the way to algo and CTAs. In fact, as Deutsche Bank’s Parag Thatte writes in his weekly flow report, “positioning in equities has been rising and is now in the 96th percentile on our consolidated measure, with a wide variety of metrics very stretched.” And, as we have noted previously, equity flows as well as “equity positioning, like the market itself, has run far ahead of current growth as investors price in a global growth rebound.“
But while it has been known for a while that most humans have thrown in the towel amid a mauling of bears and shorts, it now appears that systematic strategies – i.e., algos, quants, risk parity, etc – have also raised equity exposure to the top of its range. According to Thatte, the equity allocations for Vol Control, CTAs, and Risk Parity are all near a historical maximum, which means that algos are now effectively all in.
Some more details:
- Vol Control: Vol Control funds are near their maximum equity allocations for more than 2 months now. 1M SPX realized volatility has been sub-10% since November without >1% daily moves in more than 2 months. VIX was also seasonally low this past December. Sustained low volatility environment helped VC funds maintain their high equity exposure through the recent flare-up in geopolitical risk.
Selling pressure from VC on a 3% pullback in SPX now stands at ~ $7bn-$8bn, while DB’s aggregate volatility metric targeted by VC funds is close to 10% and stands near the bottom end of its past 10Y range. And here a warning from Thatte: with barely any upside bid left, the downside risk from VCs is higher at this stage of the market rally.
- Risk Parity funds: Risk parity have scaled their SPX exposure back up to near record levels. A near uniform uptrend in equities, coupled with low equity volatility and bonds moving sideways, have boosted RP exposure to equities. Extended period of low RV likely prompted relatively slow moving RP funds to steadily increase their equity allocation over the past month. In addition, moderating negative returns correlation between bonds and equities have seen this equity exposure increase occur at the expense of exposure to bonds. Bond volatility remains relatively elevated despite trending lower over the past month. Indicative RP bond exposure is now back near March 2019, leaving limited upside for further higher equity exposure and lower bond exposure.
- CTAs: CTA equity exposure increased with the upward trending markets to near peak levels. Recent momentum in US equities have been uniformly strong across short and medium term signals, translating to a higher level of confidence in the latest uptrend. CTA exposure to EM equities also shows up as heavy with spot reaching back to 1Q18 levels. Bond positioning by CTAs have steadily moved lower and reached their 1Y lows. The cuts in bond exposure have been across most regions, especially in Japan where 10Y JGB yields have almost turned positive.
In this context, it is hardly surprisingly that the Deutsche strategist observes that the only other time that systematic strategy positioning was higher was in January 2018… just before the large February selloff.
And yet, unlike Feb 2018, a vol spike like the one observed in Feb 2018 may not be enough to trigger a market crash. The reason: vol control funds are usually the first to sell equities when vol rises, but with volatility having been subdued for an extended period of time, they would need to see a large and sustained spike in vol for their selling thresholds to be hit.
Still, while algos are only now rush to go balls to the wall, they are only now catching up to discretionary investors who have steadily raised their bullish positioning since August and are now clearly overweight in DB’s reading, and exposure is at the highest levels since October 2018. Discretionary positioning typically follows growth indicators closely but since September, it has diverged and has moved sharply higher even as growth is yet to rebound (instead, it appears that positioning is merely chasing the broader market which has soared on the back of the Fed’s QE4 which was launched to “fix” the repo market after JPMorgan broke it). Active mutual funds as well as retail investors have raised exposure following the strong market rally.
However, there is one place where the euphoria has yet to go off the chart: the popularly followed beta positioning for long-short hedge funds still remains very low, and in line with subdued growth indicators.
Finally, several indicators point to stretched positioning across other metrics. For example, equity futures long positioning for asset managers and leveraged funds combined is at record highs, driven by a broad-based rise in longs across the S&P 500 and Nasdaq as well as the small-cap Russell 2000 futures.
Longs in EM futures have risen to record highs.
Call/put volume ratios are at the top of their historical range;
And short interest in single stocks is near record lows; and that in ETFs has also fallen to a new low.
One last confirmation of what appears to be a bullish capitulation into the QE4-inspired melt up is that equity fund flows have also turned up strongly over the last 3 months. Almost $50bn came in over this period, compared with over -$300bn in outflows in the prior 10 months.
Oh, one more thing we almost forget: with institutions, retail investors and algos all in stocks, the biggest source of equity demand, corporations themselves, appear to be easing off the stock buyback pedal. Indeed, awhile there has been a flurry of recent buyback announcements…
… with tech names leading by the runner up, healthcare, by nearly 3 to 1 in buyback announcements…
… in the grand scheme of things, and on a rolling 3 month basis, stock buybacks are a far cry from where there were just two years ago, and fading fast to levels not seen since before the Trump tax reform which unleashed a $1.5 trillion buyback bonanza.
It is this sudden reversal in buyback appetite that may be the biggest danger for a market where 77% of CFOs now think the market is significantly overvalued.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 01/11/2020 – 16:04 - In Stunning Reversal, Iran Admits Accidentally Shooting Down Ukrainian Passenger Jet
In Stunning Reversal, Iran Admits Accidentally Shooting Down Ukrainian Passenger Jet
After multiple denials, and demands for proof from foreign entities – accusing them of spreading “psychological warfare” lies, President Hassan Rouhani has admitted Iran accidentally shot down the Ukrainian jetliner that took off from Tehran’s international airport amid this week’s tensions.
In a pair of tweets, Rouhani admitted that “Armed Forces’ internal investigation has concluded that regrettably missiles fired due to human error caused the horrific crash of the Ukrainian plane & death of 176 innocent people,” adding that “The Islamic Republic of Iran deeply regrets this disastrous mistake.”
The Islamic Republic of Iran deeply regrets this disastrous mistake.
My thoughts and prayers go to all the mourning families. I offer my sincerest condolences. https://t.co/4dkePxupzm
— Hassan Rouhani (@HassanRouhani) January 11, 2020
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The army said Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 was flying close to a sensitive Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps military site when it was downed because of “human error,” adding that the “culprits” would be identified and referred to judicial authorities.
“Iran’s armed forces went on high alert following U.S. threats to target Iranian sites,” the army said in the statement.
“Under such highly sensitive and critical circumstances, the Boeing Flight 752 flew close to a sensitive IRGC military site at an altitude and angle that made it appear as a hostile target. The plane was hit due to human error and unintentionally.”
In the aftermath of the incident, Rouhani arranged for “compensation” payments to the victims’ families, and ordered reforms of the country’s air defense system to prevent similar disasters in the future.
Iran will reportedly send the black boxes of the crashed jet to France as it lacks the technology to decode them, the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency reported.
Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif blamed “human error at time of crisis caused by US adventurism” for the disaster.
A sad day. Preliminary conclusions of internal investigation by Armed Forces:
Human error at time of crisis caused by US adventurism led to disaster
Our profound regrets, apologies and condolences to our people, to the families of all victims, and to other affected nations.
💔— Javad Zarif (@JZarif) January 11, 2020
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Military officials will elaborate on the crash on state media on Saturday. There has been no response from The White House yet.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 01/11/2020 – 15:41 - Everything You Need To Know About Recessions (But Were Afraid To Ask)
Everything You Need To Know About Recessions (But Were Afraid To Ask)
Authored by Nicholas LePan via VisualCapitalist.com,
Just like in life, markets go through peaks and valleys. The good news for investors is that often the peaks ascend to far greater heights than the depths of the valleys.
Today’s post helps to put recessions into perspective. It draws information from Capital Group to break down the frequency of economic expansions and recessions in modern U.S. history, while also showing their typical impact.
What is a Recession?
Not all recessions are the same. Some can last long while others are short. Some create lasting effects, while others are quickly forgotten. Some cripple entire economies, while others are much more targeted, impacting specific sectors within the economy.
Recession is when your neighbor loses their job. Depression is when you lose yours.
– Harry Truman
According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, a recession can be described as a significant decline in economic activity over an extended period of time, typically several months.
In the average recession, gross domestic product (GDP) is not the only thing shrinking—incomes, employment, industrial production, and retail sales tend to shrink as well. Economists generally consider two consecutive quarters of declining GDP as a recession.
The general economic model of a recession is that when unemployment rises, consumers are more likely to save than spend. This places pressure on businesses that rely on consumers’ income. As a result, company earnings and stock prices decline, which can fuel a negative cycle of economic decline and negative expectations of returns.
During economic recoveries and expansions, the opposite occurs. Rising employment encourages consumer spending, which bolsters corporate profits and stock market returns.
How Long Do Recessions Last?
Recessions generally do not last very long. According to Capital Group’s analysis of 10 cycles since 1950, the average length of a recession is 11 months, although they have ranged from eight to 18 months over the period of analysis.
Jobs losses and business closures are dramatic in the short term, though equity investments in the stock market have generally fared better. Throughout the history of economics, recessions have been relatively small blips.
Over the last 65 years, the U.S. has been in an official recession for less than 15% of all months. In addition, the overall economic impact of most recessions is relatively small. The average expansion increased GDP by 24%, whereas the average recession decreased GDP by less than 2%.
In fact, equity returns can be positive throughout a contraction, since some of the strongest stock rallies have occurred in the later stages of a recession.
Buying the Dip: Recession Indicators
Whether you are an investor or not, it would be wise to pay attention to potential recessions and prepare accordingly.
There are several indicators that people can watch to anticipate a potential recession, which might give them an edge in preparing their portfolios:
This is not a magic rubric for anticipating every economic downturn, but it helps individuals see the weather patterns on the horizon. Whether and where the storm hits is another question.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 01/11/2020 – 15:30 - Trump Admin Looking To Significantly Expand Travel Ban: Report
Trump Admin Looking To Significantly Expand Travel Ban: Report
The Trump administration is considering a dramatic expansion of its highly-controversial travel ban to add several countries to the list, according to the Associated Press, citing ‘six people familiar with the deliberations’ and a ‘document outlining the plans’ which has been circulating within the White House.
According to two of AP‘s sources, seven new countries are under consideration. Of note, the most recent iteration of the travel ban includes Iran, Libya, Somalia, Syria, Yemen, Venezuela and North Korea.
A different person said the expansion could include several countries that were covered in the first iteration of Trump’s ban, but later removed amid rounds of contentious litigation. Iraq, Sudan and Chad, for instance, had originally been affected by the order, which the Supreme Court upheld in a 5-4 vote after the administration released a watered-down version intended to withstand legal scrutiny.
…
The countries on the proposed expansion list include allies that fall short on certain security measures. The additional restrictions were proposed by Department of Homeland Security officials following a review of security protocols and “identity management” for about 200 countries, according to the person. –AP
While Trump’s critics have framed this as a ‘Muslim ban’ due to the fact that affected countries are Muslim majority, many have noted that the travel ban in its original form would have affected fewer than 15% of Muslims worldwide.
“I have trouble understanding why we’re supposed to infer religious animus when in fact the vast majority of Muslims would not be affected,” noted appeals court Judge Richard Clifton in 2017, who also pointed out that the seven countries included in the original travel ban came from a list created by the Obama administration.
While the White House wouldn’t confirm the plan, spokesman Hogan Gidley praised the travel ban for making America safer.
“The Travel Ban has been very successful in protecting our Country and raising the security baseline around the world,” he said in a statement. “While there are no new announcements at this time, common-sense and national security both dictate that if a country wants to fully participate in U.S. immigration programs, they should also comply with all security and counter-terrorism measures — because we do not want to import terrorism or any other national security threat into the United States.”
According to AP, some of their sources said they expect the announcement to coincide with the third anniversary of Trump’s initial January, 2017 travel ban – which former adviser Steve Bannon is largely credited with conceiving. The order resulted in widespread protests across the country, while activist judges struck down the Executive Order shortly thereafter.
The current ban suspends immigrant and non-immigrant visas to applicants from the affected countries, but it allows exceptions, including for students and those who have established “significant contacts” in the U.S.. And it represents a significant softening from Trump’s initial order, which had suspended travel from Iraq, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen for 90 days, blocked refugee admissions for 120 days and suspended travel from Syria.
That order was immediately blocked by the courts, prompting a months-long effort by the administration to develop clear standards and federal review processes to try to withstand legal muster. Under the current system, restrictions are targeted at countries the Department of Homeland Security says fail to share sufficient information with the U.S. or haven’t taken necessary security precautions, such as issuing electronic passports with biometric information and sharing information about travelers’ terror-related and criminal histories. –AP
Under the current travel ban, Cabinet secretaries are required to update the presidennt whether countries are adhering to new immigration security benchmarks – with those who fail to comply risking new restrictions, while countries who become compliant can have their restrictions lifted.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 01/11/2020 – 15:00
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