Apr 15

Today’s News 15th April 2024

  • Why Mankind Remains So Lost In Economic-Ignorance & Tribalistic-Warmongering
    Why Mankind Remains So Lost In Economic-Ignorance & Tribalistic-Warmongering

    Authored by Jorge Besada via The Mises Institute,

    Carl Menger’s Overlooked Vital Evolutionary Insights

    Carl Menger is widely recognized as one of the economists leading the so-called marginalist revolution along with William Stanley Jevons and Léon Walras. There are two other contributions by Menger that are relatively underappreciated and are vital for making sense of the socioeconomic order, including why mankind remains so lost in economic ignorance and tribalistic warmongering.

    They are, first, his insights into the proper method or way to study the economy or social order and its emergence-evolution, and second, his application of such wisdom to explain the evolution of money and the entire socioeconomic order that further emerges thanks to money. Let’s further expand on these two.

    Menger wrote an entire book devoted to discussing the proper method with which to study the social sciences, aptly titled Investigations into the Methods of the Social Sciences. So how should we study the social sciences according to Menger? He writes,

    Natural organisms almost without exception exhibit, when closely observed, a really admirable functionality of all parts with respect to the whole, a functionality which is not, however, the result of human calculation, but of a natural process. Similarly we can observe in numerous social institutions a strikingly apparent functionality with respect to the whole. But with closer consideration they still do not prove to be the result of an intention aimed at this purpose, Le., the result of an agreement of members of society or of positive legislation. They, too, present themselves to us rather as “natural” products (in a certain sense), as unintended results of historical development. One needs, e.g., only to think of the phenomenon of money, an institution which to so great a measure serves the welfare of society, and yet in most nations, by far, is by no means the result of an agreement directed at its establishment as a social institution, or of positive legislation, but is the unintended product of historical development. One needs only to think of law, of language, of the origin of markets, the origin of communities and of states, etc. Now if social phenomena and natural organisms exhibit analogies with respect to their nature, their origin, and their function, it is at once clear that this fact cannot remain without influence on the method of research in the field of the social sciences in general and economics in particular. . . . Now if state, society, economy, etc., are conceived of as organisms, or as structures analogous to them, the notion of following directions of research in the realm of social phenomena similar to those followed in the realm of organic nature readily suggests itself. The above analogy leads to the idea of theoretical social sciences analogous to those which are the result of theoretical research in the realm of the physico-organic world, to the conception of an anatomy and physiology of “social organisms” of state, society, economy, etc.

    Like Herbert Spencer, his contemporary and arguably the most famous and influential intellectual of the late 1800s, Menger too felt like the social order was akin to a “social organism” and should be studied using an organic or evolutionary approach similar to how we study the biological order. Menger thus felt like the methods of the physical sciences, like their use of mathematics, was as inappropriate for understanding the monumental complexity and evolution of the social order as it was for the biological one.

    He writes, “I do not belong to the believers in the mathematical method as a way to deal with our science. . . . Mathematics is not a method for . . . economic research.”

    Ludwig von Mises and F.A. Hayek would of course follow suit. Mises wrote, “As a method of economic analysis econometrics is a childish play with figures that does not contribute anything to the elucidation of the problems of economic reality.”

    Hayek also ridicules the “extensive use of mathematics, which must always impress politicians lacking any mathematical education, and which is really the nearest thing to the practice of magic that occurs among professional economists.”

    The following analogy helps us further understand Menger’s vital insights.

    Just like the human body organism and the numerous “systems” that coordinate it—like the respiratory-nervous-digestive systems—are the result of the actions of some seventy trillion human and bacterial cells but obviously NOT the result of any conscious planning or designing by them. And thanks to the likes of Darwin and a modern understanding of genetics, we can hypothesize how natural selection was the inadvertent “designer” of such systems and complex order. The modern global socioeconomic order—“social organism”—is also coordinated by a system, by what Menger’s intellectual descendants like Ludwig von Mises and his great protégé 1974 Nobel laureate in economics F.A. Hayek referred to as “the market process.” The market process is composed of “parts” like money, prices, economic competition, interest rates, and the legal-religious-governmental frameworks that sustain it. However, the result of the actions of men “do not prove to be the result of an intention aimed at this purpose . . . but is the unintended product of historical development,” similar to how cells inadvertently and unconsciously acted to create the systems that coordinate multicellular life.

    The above mindset or “method” allowed Menger to then make what is arguably the most important insight, or what I like to call the “flux-capacitor” idea, of the social sciences: Menger’s explanation of the evolution of money and its numerous ramifications. Consider the following: from the tradition of private property emerges the freedom to trade it with anyone in the entire planet which inadvertently transforms mankind into a global supercomputer where people via the private companies they create are motivated to innovate and learn from each other (competitors), thus inadvertently cooperating to discover and spread superior information and subsequent order throughout the world.

    Money is what enables this civilization-creating mechanism. Every social-order entity, whether a person or a company, is in a constant cycle of the production and consumption of wealth. A business’s sales revenue or a worker’s paycheck is an estimate of how much wealth was produced, and costs are an estimate of how much wealth was consumed while production took place. If there is more production (sales revenue) than consumption (costs), then the order is profitable and has thus increased the economic pie of wealth.

    Money is what allows the profit-loss calculation that allows billions of people and companies to order their actions in a profitable and thus pie-order-increasing manner. Also, without money, how would a heart surgeon trade his services for a toothpick? Everything mentioned above that plays a vital role in creating civilization or “the social organism” ultimately depends on and emerges from the use of money. Economics students quickly learn how money is what overcomes the “double coincidence of wants” problem that allows trade and its vital benefits like the ever-expanding division of labor and information to arise.

    Without money there is no complex division of labor or information above the levels of small tribes, and thus no large-scale civilization or “social organism.” Menger’s vital insight regarding money is that he showed how money, just like language, was an evolved and NOT designed innovation. Since money was an evolved and NOT designed innovation, this also means that all the other vital mechanisms that, taken together, make up the market process like profit-loss calculation and economic competition, they too are largely evolved/undesigned mechanisms.

    This is the key to understanding how we live in this massively complex world, with a rapidly expanding and intensifying division of labor and information that creates mind-bogglingly complex microchips, the internet, etc. Yet the masses and their politicians remain economically ignorant, segregating themselves into us versus them, using the technology to fight deadlier wars, and ignorantly attempting to centrally plan the social-order economy, which inadvertently destroys the evolved and undesigned economic competition which is what really creates and spreads the information that creates civilization.

    The above insights and more associated with Menger’s Austrian School of Economics, as Hayek tells us, “belong fully and wholly to Carl Menger.” Hayek again said, “There must be few instances . . . where the works of an author who revolutionized the body of an already well-developed science and who has been generally recognized to have done so, have remained so little known as those of Carl Menger.”

    Yes! And we are running out of time to catch up to Menger. It took a while for the vital myth-shattering ideas of Galileo, Bruno, and Copernicus to spread. We find ourselves in a similar situation.

    Whether homo sapiens ultimately self-destroy in another tribalistic world war, socialist revolution, environmental disaster, or covid-mania, self-mutilating economic lockdown, it will all come down to whether Menger’s ideas reach people of influence in time.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 04/15/2024 – 02:00

  • Bread And Circuses: What It Means For Once-Great Nations
    Bread And Circuses: What It Means For Once-Great Nations

    Authored by Nicole James via The Epoch Times,

    Democracy, that ever-so-fleeting fancy, has a tendency to tumble into a bit of a tizz before it topples over, panting and gasping like a winded walrus.

    John Adams, ever the prophet of doom, once quipped, “Democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts and murders itself”—a sentiment echoing through the corridors of time.

    And sounding much like the belch of a senator post-banquet in ancient Rome, where democracy was more a concept for philosophical banter than a practice.

    Indeed, Rome, with all its pomp and voracious appetite for self-indulgence, serves as a cautionary tale. It’s a well-trodden path.

    Once upon a time in Rome, there was Juvenal. Not your garden-variety naysayer, but a man whose tongue was so sharp, he could slice the moral fabric of society with a mere quip.

    “Bread and circuses,” he scoffed.

    “Keep the masses stuffed and entertained, and they won’t utter a peep against you.”

    How a Great Empire Withered on Opulence

    And so, Rome bloated, not just in the midriff but in its sense of self, as leisure became the national pastime.

    Back then, over 200,000 souls, their fingers sticky from pastry, found the concept of lifting a finger (unless it was to signal for another helping) utterly foreign.

    Rome was transformed into a grand stage, where almost every day was a festival, and the citizens were either performers, spectators, or busy in the vomitorium making room for the next course.

    Naval skirmishes in makeshift lakes, chariot races that put the fast and furious to shame, and theatre so risqué it could make a statue of Venus look prudish, were all funded by the very people it was designed to distract.

    Ninety-three days of sheer, unadulterated spectacle each year, turning Rome from a republic into an extravagant production, where democracy was but a whisper drowned out by the roar of the crowd.

    Sound familiar?

    A face-masked man walks by the ancient Colosseum in downtown Rome on Dec. 5, 2020. (Filippo Monteforte/AFP via Getty Images)

    As the mighty arm of the empire began to resemble less of a fearsome gladiator and more of a feeble old man waving a stick at rambunctious youths, the calendar started to look like a mushroom farm after a spring shower, each new holiday popping up to toast to victories most had forgotten the taste of.

    Seems positively contemporary, what with the world running out of calendar days and having to celebrate Easter Sunday on Trans Awareness Day, an event that surely had the ancients rolling in their extravagantly decorated sarcophagi, perplexed by the modern conundrum of “calendar overcrowding.”

    Emperors, those illustrious leaders of men, were reduced to headline acts in this comedic opera, plastering on smiles and feigning a zeal for the games that could rival a wet sponge’s enthusiasm for a desert trek.

    In this farce, the once hallowed ceremonies now resembled a confused shuffle of days, where the only thing more bewildering than the holidays themselves was the populace’s ability to keep track of what they were celebrating.

    Gone were the days of the iron-fisted rule of Julius Caesar or the cunning Augustus. Now, the sceptre was in the shaky grasp of the likes of Commodus and Septimius Severus, whose reigns were as inspiring as a flat ale on a hot day.

    Leadership, once a robust wine, had become a watery vinegar, with emperors inflating their egos and coffers, whipping up the populace into a frenzy with what amounted to little more than patriotic chest-beating and flag-waving.

    (Africa Studio/Shutterstock)

    The spectacles, meanwhile, morphed into a grotesque parade of the bizarre and the barbaric, a stark contrast to the fading reality of employment and land ownership—those became the stuff of fairy tales.

    Even the steadfast Marcus Aurelius watched helplessly as the empire’s coinage became as flimsy as modern promises of fiscal restraint, shrinking in both size and worth.

    Bread and Circuses of the Present

    Leap forward to the present, and the circus hasn’t so much as ended as it has swapped costumes.

    Today’s coliseum is filled with Drag Time Story Hours and a calendar so crammed with celebrations of every stripe of pride and culture that one might need a guide to navigate it.

    Subsidies shower down like the finale of a firework show, ensuring the populace remains too stuffed on the bread and dazzled by the circus of reality TV outrages and viral sensations to notice the ground shifting beneath their feet.

    In this grand festival of the now, one has to wonder if we’ve become spectators in our own version of Rome’s downfall, squinting at the bright lights, too entertained to notice we’re perched on the edge of history’s greatest pratfall.

    Will the grand banquet of our times end in a burp of regret?

    *  * *

    Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 04/14/2024 – 22:55

  • "This Person Is A Crazy Racist": New NPR CEO Exposed As Woke Activist
    “This Person Is A Crazy Racist”: New NPR CEO Exposed As Woke Activist

    Last week, veteran NPR reporter Uri Berliner – a longtime ‘Subaru driving’ lefty who was raised by a ‘lesbian peace activist mother’ – wrote a scathing report accusing the network of overwhelming bias.

    Introspection was the last thing on NPR’s mind, however, as new CEO Katherine Maher chastised Berliner as “profoundly disrespectful, hateful, and demeaning” to his colleagues for calling out political bias.

    Katherine Maher

    As Jonathan Turley notes:

    In a memo Friday, Maher told the staff that Berliner attacked not only “the quality of our editorial process and the integrity of our journalists” but “our people on the basis of who we are.”

    …

    Maher’s response was hardly surprising. She was a controversial hire at NPR. Many had hoped that NPR would seek a CEO who could steer the company away from its partisan and activistic trend. The prospect could have brought moderates and conservatives back into NPR’s listening audience. Maher, however, was part of that trend.

    This should come as no surprise given Maher’s history as a complete lunatic who spews woke diatribes on X – calling herself “someone with cis white mobility privilege” and other nonsense.

    In response to journalist Chris Rufo pointing this out, Elon Musk replied that she’s a “crazy racist!”

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    Maher also says that “America is addicted to white supremacy,” which is the “real issue.”

    She also excused looters, and even slammed Hillary Clinton for correctly gendering individuals.

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    What’s the answer? Donald Trump suggests defunding them.

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    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 04/14/2024 – 21:35

  • "Read Ludwig von Mises, Motherf**kers!" – Brazilian UFC Fighter's Victory Speech Pumps Austrian Economics
    “Read Ludwig von Mises, Motherf**kers!” – Brazilian UFC Fighter’s Victory Speech Pumps Austrian Economics

    While the Middle East wobbled on the precipice of World War III on Saturday, a Brazilian UFC fighter gave us hope by using his victory speech to deliver an emphatic endorsement of Austrian economics, Ludwig von Mises, the First Amendment and gun rights. 

    Renato Moicano’s televised speech came after he pulled off a comeback win over Jalin Turner at Las Vegas. Joe Rogan joined him in the ring to discuss the fight, but Moicano had other priorities, and proceeded to drop a profanity-peppered liberty bomb on the T-Mobile Arena crowd and a worldwide audience:  

    “I’m a huge advocate of the First Amendment. Today, of course I want the $300k bonus but they not going to give [it to me] because somebody say, ‘hey, this is fucking Disney, you cannot curse’…so I’m not going to do my speech, but…

    First off all I love America. I love the Constitution. I love the First Amendment. I want to carry all the fucking guns. I love private property. And let me tell you something: If you care about your fucking country, read Ludwig von Mises and the six lessons of the Austrian economic school, motherfuckers!”

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    By “six lessons of the Austrian economic school,” Moicano was referring to a concise, 106-page Ludwig von Mises book, “Economic Policy: Thoughts for Today and Tomorrow.” Among the best-selling Mises works, it’s broken into six sections: Capitalism, Socialism, Interventionism, Inflation, Foreign Investment, and Policies and Ideas. (The Brazilian version’s title translates to “The Six Lessons.”) 

    The lessons are transcribed from a series of lectures Mises delivered at the University of Buenos Aires in 1959. Per the book’s description, “Mises had urged Argentina to turn from dictatorship and socialism toward full liberty, so there is a special urgency behind the cool logic employed here. The book’s continued popularity is due to its clarity of exposition on the ways in which economic policy affects everyone.”

    Eager to follow Moicano’s directive? Via the Mises Institute, you can read the book online, download a PDF for free, or buy a paper copy from the Mises Bookstore for just eight Federal Reserve notes. It’s likely that plenty of people are already buried in their homework: On Saturday night, UFC fans and others dove into web searches to see what Moicano was talking about… 

    …while libertarians and Austrian economics devotees raced to share Moicano’s speech on social media: 

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    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 04/14/2024 – 21:11

  • 19 Retired Generals, Admirals File Supreme Court Brief Against Trump Immunity Bid
    19 Retired Generals, Admirals File Supreme Court Brief Against Trump Immunity Bid

    Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    More than a dozen former Defense Department officials, generals, and admirals filed a brief with the Supreme Court arguing against former President Donald Trump’s presidential immunity arguments.

    (Left) Special Counsel Jack Smith delivers remarks in Washington on Aug. 1, 2023. (Right) Former President Donald Trump attends his trial in New York State Supreme Court in New York City on Dec. 7, 2023. (Drew Angerer, David Dee Delgado/Getty Images)

    It comes as the U.S. Supreme Court is set to hear arguments on the former president’s assertions that he should enjoy immunity from prosecution for activity that he carried out while he was president. The former president invoked that argument after he was accused by federal prosecutors of attempting to illegally overturn the 2020 election results.

    The amicus brief’s signatories include former CIA Director Michael Hayden, retired Admiral Thad Allen, retired Gen. George Casey, retired Gen. Charles Krulak, and more.

    They claimed that granting President Trump immunity against criminal claims could lead to activity that put U.S. national security at risk.

    “The notion of such immunity, both as a general matter, and also specifically in the context of the potential negation of election results, threatens to jeopardize our nation’s security and international leadership,” their brief stated. “Particularly in times like the present, when anti-democratic, authoritarian regimes are on the rise worldwide, such a threat is intolerable and dangerous.”

    The arguments submitted by President Trump will “risk jeopardizing America’s standing as a guardian of democracy in the world and further feeding the spread of authoritarianism, thereby threatening the national security of the United States and democracies around the world,” the group added.

    The former secretary of Defense under President Trump, Mark Esper, was critical of their submission to the Supreme Court, arguing during a CNN interview that he “would prefer to see retired admirals and generals not get involved.”

    But President Trump’s lawyers have contended that the president’s office cannot function without immunity from the threat of prosecution because it could “incapacitate every future president with de facto blackmail and extortion while in office and condemn him to years of post-office trauma at the hands of political opponents,” arguing that such a phenomenon is playing out right now after the former president was indicted multiple times last year.

    The U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals had earlier issued a ruling against President Trump’s arguments that he should be declared immune from prosecution. The appeals process, meanwhile, has put on hold the former president’s trial in Washington.

    “A denial of criminal immunity would incapacitate every future president with de facto blackmail and extortion while in office, and condemn him to years of post-office trauma at the hands of political opponents. The threat of future prosecution and imprisonment would become a political cudgel to influence the most sensitive and controversial presidential decisions, taking away the strength, authority and decisiveness of the presidency,” according to President Trump’s filing issued last month.

    The former president last October sought to have the charges dismissed based on his claim of immunity. U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan rejected those arguments in December.

    “Even if some level of Presidential malfeasance, not present in this case at all, were to escape punishment, that risk is inherent in the Constitution’s design,” President Trump’s attorneys also wrote to the high court.

    “The Founders viewed protecting the independence of the Presidency as well worth the risk that some Presidents might evade punishment in marginal cases,“ they said, adding that the Founding Fathers were ”unwilling to burn the Presidency itself to the ground to get at every single alleged malefactor.”

    Special counsel Jack Smith has pushed for the U.S. high court to reject the former president’s claims of immunity, telling the justices that President Trump’s actions that led to the charges, if he is convicted, would represent “an unprecedented assault on the structure of our government.”

    Former CIA Director Michael Hayden (Ret.) testifies during a hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee on Capitol Hill in Washington on Aug. 4, 2015. (Alex Wong/Getty Images)

    “The effective functioning of the presidency does not require that a former president be immune from accountability for these alleged violations of federal criminal law,” Mr. Smith wrote this week. “To the contrary, a bedrock principle of our constitutional order is that no person is above the law including the president.”

    The signatories to the amicus brief include retired Army Gens. George Casey and Peter Chiarelli, retired Air Force Gens. John Jumper, Craig McKinley, and Charles Wald; retired Marine Corps Gens. Carlton Fulford, Charles Krulak, and Robert Magnus; retired Navy Admirals Steve Abbot, Samuel Jones Locklear, John Nathman, Bill Owens, and Scott Swift; and retired Coast Guard Adm. Thad Allen.

    Several former civilian Pentagon officials signed onto the brief. They include former Army Secretary Louis Caldera, former Air Force Secretary Deborah Lee James, Navy Secretary Sean O’Keefe, and Navy Secretary Ray Mabus.

    Backing President Trump, several GOP-led states filed a petition to the Supreme Court arguing that the justices should reverse the appeals court’s decision and grant the former president immunity in the cases.

    Reuters contributed to this report.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 04/14/2024 – 21:00

  • Whistleblowers To Further Dismantle Jan. 6 National Guard Narrative About Trump
    Whistleblowers To Further Dismantle Jan. 6 National Guard Narrative About Trump

    On Wednesday, whistleblowers from the Washington DC National Guard are expected to tell Congressional investigators that former President Donald Trump wanted them deployed, but an Army Secretary, Ryan McCarthy, delayed relaying this to DC National Guard Commander William Walker by at least two hours.

    According to the Daily Mail, at least three whistleblowers will also testify that their stories were ignored by the Democrat-led January 6 committee because it didn’t fit their narrative. The hearing will aim to further prove that Acting SecDef Christopher Miller did give advance approval to deploy the National Guard at Trump’s command.

    Instead of getting to the bottom of the breakdown in communication and focusing on improving Military preparedness for future incidents, the witnesses feel the January 6 panel was solely focused on pinning blame for the events that day on Trump.

    The officers, who were with Walker the day of the Capitol riot, will detail how they were on buses in full tactical gear for hours waiting for the go-ahead from the Army.

    McCarthy has stated under oath that he did give a timely order for deployment of the D.C. National Guard – but Walker’s troops said they found out about mobilization during a press conference, which led to a three-hour-and-19-minute delay of forces arriving at the Capitol. -Daily Mail

    Some have suggested that McCarthy was trying to intervene over the optics of the Army, under his command, trying to inhibit or interfere with certification of the 2020 presidential election results – and that he may have been vying for a spot in the incoming Biden administration.

    The hearing on Wednesday, “Three Years Later: D.C. National Guard Whistleblowers Speak Out on January 6 Delay,” will explore whether Trump was at fault for the delay in deploying the National Guard.

    Last month, Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-GA), chairman of the Oversight Subcommittee reviewing the J6 investigation into the Capitol riot, released a never-before-seen transcript with Trump’s J6 security chief Tony Ornato, during which he testifies that Trump did in fact authorize the National Guard to be mobilized to DC that day – which completely shredded the J6 committee’s argument that Trump simply wanted to stoke chaos that day.

    Meanwhile, both Capitol Police Chief Steven Sund and DC National Guard leader Maj. Gen. Walker have testified that Army Lt. Gen. Walter Piatt (ret.) delayed or ignored Sund’s request for National Guard support – claiming that Piatt said “I don’t like the visual of the National Guard standing a police line with the Capitol in the background.”

    On Wednesday, the whistleblowers will be able to corroborate these claims.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 04/14/2024 – 19:15

  • The Only Market Traders Followed During Saturday's Attack On Israel Was Bitcoin
    The Only Market Traders Followed During Saturday’s Attack On Israel Was Bitcoin

    By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

    The Iranian attack on Israel appeared as an iPhone price alert well before any news service would run the story. That’s how markets work. Crypto is the only liquid asset class that trades on Saturday, so those of us who never really turn off learned something big happened right around 3:45pm ET on Saturday (ZH: which is precisely when we noticed this first…).

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    Bitcoin dumped from $67,000 to $61,750 in a matter of minutes. Had the S&P 500 been open, it would’ve gapped lower by 3.0% give or take, in my estimation. Probably not enough to seriously stress the stop-loss mechanisms at all those grossly overleveraged multi-manager pod shops, but a reminder that markets are continuous until they are not.

    And anyway, by the time of the S&P futures market open on Sunday night at 6pm ET, and then the liquid cash market open at 9:30am ET Monday, we’ll know a lot more, and prices will reflect the new information.

    The Iranian regime posted this on X at 6:06pm ET, well after it initiated hostilities:

    Conducted on the strength of Article 51 of the UN Charter pertaining to legitimate defense, Iran’s military action was in response to the Zionist regime’s aggression against our diplomatic premises in Damascus. The matter can be deemed concluded. However, should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iran’s response will be considerably more severe. It is a conflict between Iran and the rogue Israeli regime, from which the U.S. MUST STAY AWAY!

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    Crypto traders appeared to take some comfort in the Iranian sentence: “The matter can be deemed concluded.” Bitcoin prices bounced off the bottom. And while Israeli sources indicated they intercepted 99% of the incoming drones and missiles, they also suggested the Iranian attack requires a decisive response.

    G7 countries planned a call for Sunday to coordinate a response. Biden pledged to stand by Israel. The US Navy sent an amphibious warship to the Eastern Mediterranean with 2,500 young Marines.

    And those of us, many thousands of miles from the region, prayed that we restore a semblance of balance, stability, peace, through greater internal political cooperation at home, principled diplomacy abroad, and overwhelming economic and military strength.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 04/14/2024 – 18:52

  • Americans Panic-Search "World War III" And "Can I Be Drafted" As Iran Bombs Israel
    Americans Panic-Search “World War III” And “Can I Be Drafted” As Iran Bombs Israel

    Americans panic searched “World War III” and other related searches following Iran’s Saturday night attack on Israel with hundreds of missiles and drones.  

    Using data from Google Trends, “World War III” searches surged nationwide, hitting a five-year high. 

    Americans also searched “When will world war iii begin” and “When is world war iii going to happen” and even “Alexa, when will world war iii start,” as well as “Are We headed for world war iii”. 

    Meanwhile, a surge in Americans, likely younger millennials and Gen-Zers, have been asking Google search about the military draft age. 

     

    Here are other spiking internet searches.

    For all those neocon warmongering DC elites, remember that DEI Gen-Zers have already stated they will not fight any more of your foreign wars… What about recruiting all the military-aged migrants that just flooded the nation instead?

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    Meanwhile…

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    Sigh, America. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 04/14/2024 – 18:05

  • Judge Upholds Georgia's Voter Citizenship Verification Requirements
    Judge Upholds Georgia’s Voter Citizenship Verification Requirements

    Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A federal judge has dismissed a legal challenge to Georgia’s voter citizenship verification requirements, keeping in place the state’s process of cross-checking citizenship status to determine voter eligibility and handing a win to election integrity advocates.

    A file image of voters standing in line to cast their ballots during the first day of early voting in the U.S. Senate runoff, in Atlanta, Ga., on Dec. 14, 2020. (Jessica McGowan/Getty Images)

    Judge Eleanor Ross of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Georgia issued a ruling on April 11 that dismisses a lawsuit brought by a coalition of advocacy groups nearly six years ago that claimed Georgia’s voter citizenship verification requirements unfairly discriminated against naturalized citizens, who are more likely to be people of color.

    Following a three-day trial, the judge ruled that all four of the plaintiffs’ claims—including that the protocols violated multiple federal laws, the U.S. Constitution, and unfairly burdened the right to vote—are dismissed.

    In so doing, the judge sided with a motion for summary judgment made in 2021 by the defendant, Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, who argued that the state’s protocols for matching naturalized citizens’ voter registrations with the state’s citizenship records were “entirely reasonable” and placed a “minimum burden” on applicants.

    Mr. Raffensperger argued that, in almost every case, the requirement was fulfilled by matching driver’s licence or state identification numbers submitted for voter registration with corresponding records at the Georgia Department of Driver Services (DDS) to confirm citizenship status.

    When a naturalized citizen registers to vote in Georgia, their county registrar verifies proof of citizenship using DDS data. If that voter’s citizenship cannot be verified through that database, the onus is on the voter to submit proof of citizenship within 26 months or their voter registration application will be canceled.

    The plaintiffs have alleged that DDS data is often outdated, leading many naturalized citizens’ voter registrations to be flagged and canceled unfairly.

    Mr. Raffensperger disputed the claim that this issue affected many people, arguing in his motion that “any arguable burden on this small group of people to demonstrate they are now citizens is minimal and does not go beyond the ‘usual burdens of voting’ because it can be resolved as simply as showing the same photo identification that every Georgia voter is required to show in order to vote in person in Georgia.”

    He also argued that the citizenship process serves a “compelling interest” in ensuring that only eligible voters are allowed to cast a vote, an argument raised by election integrity advocates across the country amid various disputes over voting rules.

    ‘Common Sense’ Versus ‘Disappointing’

    The plaintiffs sued Mr. Raffensperger in 2018, arguing that the state’s protocols for matching naturalized citizens’ voter registrations with the state’s citizenship records violated Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act (VRA) and the 14th Amendment’s Equal Protection Clause.

    They also claimed that these protocols put an unfair burden on the right to vote, in violation of 1st and 14th Amendment protections, while also claiming that the requirements ran counter to the National Voter Registration Act (NVRA) by delaying or denying qualified voters from registering to cast ballots.

    The coalition of groups asked the court to rule that the citizenship matching protocols were illegal, and to permanently block their enforcement.

    The case eventually went to trial on April 8, 2024, leading to a favorable ruling for Mr. Raffensperger and delivering a win to election integrity advocates more generally.

    “Ensuring that only U.S. citizens vote in our elections is critically important to secure and accurate elections,” Mr. Raffensperger said in a statement praising the ruling.

    “Georgia’s citizenship verification process is common sense and it works. With this ruling, we are able to continue ensuring that only U.S. citizens are voting in our elections,” he added.

    Aunna Dennis, executive director of Common Cause Georgia, one of the plaintiffs, told The Epoch Times in an emailed statement that the ruling is disappointing as it keeps in place obstacles to casting a vote.

    “This is disappointing because it will potentially disenfranchise citizen voters who now have to jump through multiple bureaucratic hurdles to vote,” Ms. Dennis said. “It will also create shock waves that may chill other new voters from trying to vote, even when they are eligible.”

    “Sadly, Georgia’s lawful voters will bear the brunt of anti-immigrant sentiments,” she added.

    Election Integrity or Voter Suppression?

    The ruling comes amid concern in some circles that noncitizens—including some of the many millions of illegal immigrants who have entered the United States since President Joe Biden took office—may cast votes unlawfully in the high-stakes 2024 election.

    It also comes amid a broader fight between those who see election integrity efforts as “voter suppression” and those who believe that the security of U.S. elections is too lax and should be tightened.

    According to a running tally by the left-leaning Brennan Center for Justice, expansive voting laws far outpaced restrictive ones in 2023.

    At least 53 expansive voting laws were introduced last year in at least 23 states, compared to 17 restrictive laws being passed in 14 states, suggesting that the election integrity movement is falling behind.

    Amid concerns over voter fraud, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich recently suggested that to win the presidential election in November, Republicans need to outvote Democrats by a significant margin.

    “Everybody who wants an honest election should know that in the long run, we need the French model. Everybody votes on the same day. Everybody has a photo ID, everybody’s accounted as a person,” Mr. Gingrich said in a February interview on Fox News.

    “But until we get to that, if Republicans want to win this year, under the rules that exist this year, they need to outvote the Democrats by about 5 percent, which is a margin big enough that it can’t be stolen,” he said.

    Elsewhere, an election integrity monitor laid out over a dozen “critical” reforms that it believes are necessary in order to secure voter integrity in the 2024 election, including outlawing ranked choice voting and non-citizen voting, consolidating election dates, requiring voter ID, and safeguarding vulnerable mail ballots.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 04/14/2024 – 17:30

  • Trump Prepares For Monday's 'Fake Biden Trial' With 'Highly Conflicted' Manhattan Judge
    Trump Prepares For Monday’s ‘Fake Biden Trial’ With ‘Highly Conflicted’ Manhattan Judge

    Former President Trump will take his 2024 campaign to New York on Monday, where he’ll be sitting in a Manhattan courtroom for what he decried as a “Fake Biden Trial” to face 34 counts of falsifying business records in connection with the Stormy Daniels ‘hush money’ embroglio. The trial comes after an unsuccessful bid to adjourn the case due to overwhelming pretrial publicity, which Judge Juan Merchan denied, calling adjournment “not tenable.”

    Manhattan Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan, left, and former President Donald Trump (via the Daily News)

    Trump has taken to Truth Social in recent days, suggesting on Sunday that Merchan is “perhaps the most highly conflicted Judge in New York State history,” who gave Trump’s legal team insufficient time to analyze “hundreds of thousands of pages of documents that D.A. Alvin Bragg illegally hid, disguised, and held back from us.”

    Trump’s alleged crimes…

    As the WSJ notes, “The 34 felony counts in the indictment are all tied to records that prosecutors said Trump falsified as he reimbursed Cohen for the Daniels deal. They include 11 invoices, 12 general ledger entries and 11 checks.”

    As Mike Shedlock of Mishtalk notes, expect a media circus.

    A Recording Crime

    District Attorney Alvin Bragg took each receipt, invoice, and ledger receipt and made a separate felony charge out of each of them.

    Then Bragg twisted those charges into an intent to commit other crimes. Yet Trump is not charged with other crimes, only falsifying records. And it’s plausible that Trump had no direct knowledge of the mess.

    Michael Cohen

    This story goes back to Michael Cohen, a former attorney of Donald Trump, who landed in prison for by paying adult-film star Stormy Daniels $130,000 in 2016 to keep quiet about an alleged sexual encounter she had with Trump a decade earlier.

    The Journal notes that Falsifying business records is a misdemeanor under New York state law, but it can be elevated to a felony if records were falsified to conceal or commit another crime.

    What other crime? Trump is charged with none.

    Meanwhile as Politico reports, in addition to taking a “wrecking ball to Michael Cohen,” with nearly half of the respondents in a recent Politico/Ipsos poll saying that Cohen is not honest…

    Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg’s “Star Witness, Trump could try “asking the judge to give the jury the option of convicting him on lesser, misdemeanor offenses instead of the felony counts that have actually been brought by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg and his team of prosecutors.”

    Conflicted Juan

    Journalist Laura Loomer, a Trump supporter, has posted several receipts over the past several weeks showing Merchan’s various conflicts – including the fact that his daughter professionally brags about “doing ground-breaking, historical work for clients” including “Kamala Harris, Adam Schiff, and others.”

    Loomer also noted that Andrew Laufer, the lawyer for Michael Cohen (DA Alan Bragg’s “Star witness”), is tight with NY Attorney General Letitia James – who Mercnah’s wife worked for in what Loomer describes as a “major conflict of interest.”

    When asked by Laufer to explain the conflict, Loomer replied: “Don’t play stupid. You know what the conflict is,” adding “The Trump Trial begins tomorrow. In New York. And the star witness’s lawyer is chummy with the NY AG.“

    Sununu Pledges Support

    In an interview with ABC‘s George Stephanopoulos on Sunday, New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R) said he would support Trump even if he’s convicted.

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    Meanwhile the MSM is creaming over the thought or Orange Man Convicted.

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    As Mike Shedlock notes in closing:

    Can Trump Get a Fair Trial?

    That’s actually the wrong question. The right question is: Should there be a trial?

    Since there should not be a trial at all, by definition a trial cannot be fair.

    The charges are remarkably shaky and so is the key witness. It only takes one holdout to reach the correct conclusion, that felony charges are a sham.

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    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 04/14/2024 – 16:55

  • Over 1,300 Layoffs Hit Logistics Companies Across US
    Over 1,300 Layoffs Hit Logistics Companies Across US

    By Noi Mahoney of FreightWaves

    Layoffs continue across the freight and logistics industry, with companies in Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Michigan and Texas announcing job reductions and facility closures over the past two weeks.

    Universal Logistics

    Warren, Michigian-based Universal Logistics is permanently shuttering two of its subsidiaries and laying off a total of 677 employees, according to notices recently filed with the state.

    The layoffs are related to Universal-operated entities Logistics Insights Corp. and Universal Dedicated of Detroit, an auto parts warehousing and logistics facility. Both operations were in Detroit.

    Universal Dedicated of Detroit’s closure will affect 230 truck drivers who worked from the facility.  Logistics Insights Corp.’s closure includes 164 warehouse workers, 212 forklift operators, 26 dockworkers and 45 clerical employees.

    Universal Logistics is a truckload transportation, intermodal and logistics provider across the U.S, Mexico, Canada and Colombia. The company has more than 10,000 employees.

    It did not provide a reason for the cessation of operations at the two entities in their state filings.

    Officials for Universal Logistics did not immediately respond to a request for comment from FreightWaves.

    Swissport Cargo Services

    Global cargo handler Swissport Cargo Services recently announced it is laying off 235 workers at a cargo handling operation in Atlanta.

    The layoffs, which are related to losing a contract with e-commerce giant Amazon, are expected to be finalized by May 22.

    “We’re always evaluating our operations to better serve our customers and have made the decision to change vendors at Atlanta Hartsfield International Airport,” Sam Stephenson, Amazon spokesperson, told FreightWaves. “This will not impact customer deliveries in the Atlanta area.”

    Amazon is working with incoming vendors to identify opportunities for impacted workers.

    On Feb. 19, Swissport announced it was laying off 378 workers at a cargo handling operation at Newark Liberty International Airport. The job reduction was also related to losing a customer contract, officials said.

    “Our customer has decided to change its service provider and to terminate the contract,” Swissport officials told FreightWaves. “To our great regret and as a result of this decision, all 378 Swissport employees at Newark airport will no longer be employed by Swissport.”

    The Kroger Co.

    The Kroger Co. recently announced it is cutting over 230 jobs and permanently closing delivery hubs in San Antonio and Austin, Texas, as well as Miami.

    The facilities operated as part of the Kroger Fulfillment Network, an e-commerce grocery delivery service for residential customers. The layoffs include 198 delivery drivers.

    “Despite our best efforts, including the support from new customers, learnings from other locations, and the incredible work of our associates, these facilities did not meet the benchmarks we set for success,” Kroger officials said in a statement to the media.

    The facilities will permanently close by the end of May.

    RXO Logistics 

    Transportation solutions provider RXO recently announced it is laying off 114 employees at a facility in Warren, Michigan.

    The layoffs are from RXO Managed Transport, a subsidiary operating at 29755 Chevrolet Road. Company officials did not give a reason for the layoffs in a notice filed with the state. 

    Officials for Charlotte, North Carolina-based RXO told Crain’s Detroit Business that the layoffs were related to the loss of a customer contract.

    The layoffs are expected to be finalized by May 31.

    Nosco Inc. 

    Packaging solutions provider Nosco Inc. is closing a facility in Carrollton, Texas, and laying off 51 workers.

    Company officials said the facility’s closure is related to the relocation of some operations to company headquarters in Pleasant Prairie, Wisconsin.

    The Carrollton facility will close permanently by Oct. 2. 

    Ryder Integrated Logistics

    Ryder Integrated Logistics is laying off 29 workers from a trucking facility in Romeoville, Illinois.

    The job cuts, which are scheduled to be finalized by April 30, are due to the loss of a customer, according to state filings.

    Ryder Integrated Logistics is a subsidiary of Ryder System, a Miami-based leasing, fleet management, transportation and supply chain solutions provider.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 04/14/2024 – 16:20

  • Javier Blas Outlines Ten Takeaways For Crude Market Following Iran's Direct Attack On Israel 
    Javier Blas Outlines Ten Takeaways For Crude Market Following Iran’s Direct Attack On Israel 

    Iran’s direct attack on Israel on Saturday evening is viewed certainly as an escalation in the Middle East conflict. Tehran’s missile and drone attack (widely unsuccessful) has been well-telegraphed (read: here & here) for the last two weeks, pushing up Brent crude oil futures above the $90 a barrel mark on heightened geopolitical risks in the region. 

    Iran’s direct attack on Israel could lead some traders to reevaluate the geopolitical risk premium even more. And this is because Tehran’s attack on Israel was direct, instead of through the usual foreign proxies such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia and Yemen’s Houthi rebels. So far, crude prices have been up 17.5% this year and have surged nearly 4% since the strike on Iran’s embassy earlier this month. 

    “Oil prices might spike at the opening, as this is the first time Iran struck Israel from its territory,” said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS Group AG, as quoted by Bloomberg. 

    Staunovo added, “How long any bounce will last will also depend on the Israeli response.”

    According to Iman Nasseri, Middle East managing director at consultancy FGE, Brent crude has already priced in about a $10 risk premium. He said another $2 to $5 premium could be priced in on further concerns about tit-for-tat attacks across the region. 

    On Sunday, Iran warned the US if it supports an Israeli counterattack, then expect further escalation in the conflict across the region, especially with missiles and drones targeting US military bases. 

    Adding more fears in energy markets is the report earlier on Saturday that Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard seized an Israeli-linked container ship near the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint in the region. Already, Iran-backed Houthis have targeted US and Israeli ships in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, yet another critical maritime chokepoint that disrupts global trade flows. 

    Making sense of this all is Bloomberg’s commodity expert Javier Blas, who outlined a few conclusions for energy markets following the flare-up in violence overnight:

    1. From a purely physical standpoint, nothing has changed in the world of oil. Middle Eastern crude is flowing into the global economy unimpeded, and the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important energy chokepoint, remains open to shipping. Put simply: there’s no oil shortage.

    2. The risk of a future disruption has increased. It would be naïve to say the Middle East looks today exactly as it did last week; a lot did change. I don’t think it was a purely symbolic attack. Even though telegraphed well in advance, Iran launched about 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles and 120 ballistic missiles, with the clear aim of overwhelming Israel’s defences. The options market, via deep out-of-the-money call contracts, should reflect the higher risks

    3. Iran appears to have aimed for an escalation to-deescalate, rather than opening the first chapter of a regional war. Even well before the drones and missiles reached Israel, Tehran indicated the attack was a one-off “legitimate defense” after the Israeli bombing of its embassy in Syria: “The matter can be deemed concluded.” If Israel considers that its response, bringing America and several Arab nations alongside to neutralize almost all the incoming bombs, was akin to a strategic victory, then the region returns to its precarious status quo. If so, headline oil prices don’t need to rally. Instead, the risk will be reflected better via the options market.

    4. Putting aside geopolitics, oil supply and demand fundamentals look healthy. Even the most bearish forecast for oil demand suggests consumption growth in 2024 will match the historical annual average of 1.2 million barrels a day. The bullish forecasts are for much higher growth, in the 1.5-to-1.9 million barrels a day range. On the supply side, a series of glitches have reduced production this year, particularly of US shale oil. As a result, global oil inventories, which typically increase in the first half of the year, have remained unchanged. Unless OPEC+ increases production soon, stockpiles will drop in the second half of the year.

    5. OPEC+ is keeping the market tight. Despite oil prices well above $80, it decided in late March to roll over its first-quarter output cuts into the second quarter. My expectation is that the group will open the taps at its next meeting, scheduled for June 1. In its last monthly oil report, the cartel noted on April 11 that the “robust oil demand outlook for the summer warrants careful market monitoring” – the kind of preparatory language ahead of an output hike.

    6. How OPEC+ increases production would be as important as the hike itself. I expect the group to hike output slowly, leaving its options open. Rather than pre-announcing a series of production increases, it could instead opt to call monthly meetings, keeping the market guessing whether it would add enough crude.

    7. Unless Israel and Iran engage in tit-for-tat attacks that disrupt oil flows, OPEC+ has more than enough spare production capacity to control a price rally. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Iraq are keeping about 5 million barrels of day out of the market – equal to about 5% of the world’s demand, and more than what Iran itself produces.

    8. Barring a regional war, the biggest oil supply risk is political. President Joe Biden has promised a “diplomatic” response to the Iranian attacks. Since he was inaugurated in 2021, Biden has all but allowed Iran to increase its oil output, relaxing the enforcement of US sanctions on Tehran. In March, Iranian oil output hit a five-year high of 3.25 million barrels a day, up from 2.1 million in January 2021. If Biden resumes enforcing the sanctions, it could tighten the market significantly unless OPEC+ offsets the impact. I’m dubious Biden would take that course of action in an election year.

    9. Russia stands to win. Thanks to a tight oil market, Moscow is already selling its crude at $75 a barrel, well above the Group of Seven cap of $60 a barrel. If Washington enforces sanctions against Iran, it could create space for Russia’s own sanctioned barrels to both win market share and achieve even higher prices. One of the reasons why the White House turned a blind eye to Iranian oil exports is because its priority was to hurt Russia. Higher Iranian production was the unsaid — and unrecognized — cost of that policy. Now Washington needs to reconsider what’s its biggest concern.

    10. The risk that the White House would tap the country’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve later this year has increased notably. Even if half the size it was a decade ago, the stockpile of about 365 million barrels is still a formidable force. Biden can use the cover of rising tension in the Middle East to justify its use and try to push oil prices down toward $80 a barrel if OPEC+ decides it’s happy letting them rise to $99.99, or even beyond.

    All in all, higher crude prices are terrible news for President Biden’s reelection odds as inflation reaccelerates. We explained to readers in early March that the probability was rising that America’s enemies would ‘weaponize crude‘ against the US to trigger the next financial shock.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 04/14/2024 – 15:45

  • WHO Official Admits Vaccine Passports May Have Been A Scam
    WHO Official Admits Vaccine Passports May Have Been A Scam

    Authored by Paul D. Thacker via The Disinformation Chronicle (subscribe here),

    The World Health Organization’s Dr. Hanna Nohynek testified in court that she advised her government that vaccine passports were not needed but was ignored, despite explaining that the COVID vaccines did not stop virus transmission and the passports gave a false sense of security. The stunning revelations came to light in a Helsinki courtroom where Finnish citizen Mika Vauhkala is suing after he was denied entry to a café for not having a vaccine passport.

    Dr. Nohynek is chief physician at the Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare and serves as the WHO’s chair of Strategic Group of Experts on immunization. Testifying yesterday, she stated that the Finnish Institute for Health knew by the summer of 2021 that the COVID-19 vaccines did not stop virus transmission

    During that same 2021 time period, the WHO said it was working to “create an international trusted framework” for safe travel while EU members states began rolling out COVID passports. The EU Digital COVID Certificate Regulation passed in July 2021 and more than 2.3 billion certificates were later issued. Visitors to France were banned if they did not have a valid vaccine passport which citizens had to carry to buy food at stores or to use public transport.

    But Dr. Nohynek testified yesterday that her institute advised the Finnish government in late 2021 that COVID passports no longer made sense, yet certificates continued to be required. Finnish journalist Ike Novikoff reported the news yesterday after leaving the Helsinki courtroom where Dr. Nohynek spoke.

    Dr. Nohynek’s admission that the government ignored scientific advice to terminate vaccine passports proved shocking as she is widely embraced in global medical circles. Besides chairing the WHO’s strategic advisory group on immunizations, Dr. Nohynek is one of Finland’s top vaccine advisors and serves on the boards of Vaccines Together and the International Vaccine Institute.

    The EU’s digital COVID-19 certification helped establish the WHO Global Digital Health Certification Network in July 2023. “By using European best practices we contribute to digital health standards and interoperability globally—to the benefit of those most in need,” stated one EU official.

    Finnish citizen Mika Vauhkala created a website discussing his case against Finland’s government where he writes that he launched his lawsuit “to defend basic rights” after he was denied breakfast in December 2021 at a Helsinki café because he did not have a COVID passport even though he was healthy. “The constitution of Finland guarantees that any citizen should not be discriminated against based on health conditions among other things,” Vauhkala states on his website.

    Vauhkala’s lawsuit continued today in Helsinki district court where British cardiologist Dr. Aseem Malhotra will testify that, during the COVID pandemic, some authorities and medical professionals supported unethical, coercive, and misinformed policies such as vaccine mandates and vaccine passports, which undermined informed patient consent and evidence-based medical practice.

    You can read Dr. Malhotra’s testimony here.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 04/14/2024 – 15:10

  • Video Evidence Shows Several Iranian Cruise Missiles Scored Direct Hits
    Video Evidence Shows Several Iranian Cruise Missiles Scored Direct Hits

    Both Israel and the US have declared a ‘victory’ in defending against the overnight massive Iranian drone and missile attack, which reportedly saw over 300 projectiles sent toward Israel. Ground anti-air systems were very active, including the Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow system – the latter intended to thwart long-range missiles. The night skies over Israel were lit up for several hours, with explosions ringing out above various cities, especially Jerusalem.

    US systems were also heavily engaged on behalf of Washington’s closest Middle East ally. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) also subsequently said its air force fighter jets downed some 170 drones and 30 cruise missiles. A statement further said “All the drones and cruise missiles were downed outside of the country’s airspace by the IAF and its allies, including the United States, United Kingdom, Jordan, France, and others.” 

    However, a few videos are widely circulating which appear to offer proof that at least some of Iran’s ballistic missiles found their way to a ground target, contradicting Israel’s optimistic narrative of almost “all” drones and missiles intercepted.

    The videos purport to show several missiles scoring direct hits on two key Israeli military bases in the south of the country: Nevatim Airbase and Ramon Airbase (locations on map above).

    First, the Nevatim Air Base, which is one of Israel’s largest. The below footage appears to show clusters of munitions raining down above the base – possibly decoy bomblets, before several ballistic missiles make impact on the ground.

    Video of ballistic missiles slamming into the Nevatim Air Base in the south after passing through a swarm of anti-air interceptors:

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    The IDF overnight confirmed a military base in southern Israel was slightly damaged.

    The Hill writes, “Iranian state-run media outlets reported that Ramon air base in southern Israel was struck by seven missiles, while they also reported successful attacks on Nevatim air base, one of the largest in Israel.”

    Second, the Ramon airbase in the Negev desert, where the missiles came in at least two waves…

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    More footage of different angles side-by-side, via Middle East Eye:

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    Regional geopolitical analyst and journalist, Rania Khalek, offers an interesting takeaway from last night’s dramatic events as follows…

    “This is a deterrence win for Iran. Had Israel been taken by surprise and not had the days long preparation to mitigate the impact of an Iranian attack this large, the damage would have been huge. There is no way Israel could have intercepted hundreds of Iranian missiles without a week of its allies putting defenses in place and Iran intentionally taking its time.

    A real war would NOT be telegraphed in advance so Israel can prepare with a symphony of air defenses from its allies. Biden understands the risks posed by further escalation, especially to US forces, which is why he told Netanyahu he will not back an Israeli counterstrike. The equation in the region has changed and Iran did it masterfully and responsibly without igniting the big war.”

    Below, IDF published footage showing fighter jet intercepts of inbound drones and cruise missiles…

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    However, whether there will be a big war or not is yet to be seen, based on how Israel responds. The New York Times has reported that PM Netanyahu backed off launching an immediate military response after a late night phone call with President Biden. But this likely opens the door for Netanyahu to implement his long desired plans to take out what Israel believes are Iranian nuclear sites.

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    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 04/14/2024 – 14:35

  • 'Not Looking For A Significant Escalation' – Israel Threatens Imminent Response To Iranian Attack, Then Walks It Back
    ‘Not Looking For A Significant Escalation’ – Israel Threatens Imminent Response To Iranian Attack, Then Walks It Back

    Summary:

    • Iran sent 170 drones, 120 ballistic missiles and 30 cruise missiles – carrying a combined 60 tonnes of explosive material – into Israel

    • Iran violated Iraqi and Jordanian airpsace

    • Israel and its allies – including the US – shot down 99% of the Iranian munitions

    • The attack caused minor damage to Nevatim air base, in southern Israel, and one young girl from a Bedouin town in the south was hospitalized for severe shrapnel injuries

    • “We intercepted. We thwarted. Together we will win,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu posted on X.

    • Israel and its allies reportedly viewed the event as a “win.”

    • The G7 condemned Iran’s “direct and unprecedented attack against Israel” and warning of an “uncontrollable regional escalation.”

    • Iran threatened attacks on US bases in the MidEast if Washgton joins in any counter-offensive.

    • De-escalation – The Israeli war cabinet voted to “exact a price from Iran in a manner and at a time that is right,” but not immediately, according to US officials.

    • “We don’t want to see this escalate,” US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said, adding that “we’re not looking for a wider war with Iran.”

    *  *  *

    Update (1405ET): A flurry of geopol headlines just hit… 

    Let’s begin with this report from Reuters.

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    And this is from Israeli Channel 14. 

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    Moments after those headlines hit, there was a report from Yeshiva World News’ Moshe Schwartz indicating:

    “An immediate response with strikes within Iran was approved by a clear majority of the Israeli war cabinet but was called off at the last minute following Biden/Netanyahu phone call. The war cabinet still supports the planned response – but not necessarily immediately.” 

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    And these headlines:

    • ISRAEL HAS MADE CLEAR TO US IT IS NOT LOOKING FOR A SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION WITH IRAN -SENIOR US ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL
    • US HAS BEEN IN CONTACT WITH IRAN VIA SWISS CHANNEL: OFFICIAL

    Meanwhile, earlier, the US declared it would not participate in any counterattack against Iran. 

    “We don’t seek a war with Iran. We’re not looking for escalation here,” White House national security spokesman John Kirby told NBC on Sunday. 

    Even earlier, President Biden discussed the evolving conflict between Iran-Israel in a meeting of the Group of Seven “to coordinate a united diplomatic response to Iran’s brazen attack.”

    Iran told the US earlier today that if it supports Israel’s counterattack, expect its military bases in the Middle East to be attacked with missiles and suicide drones. 

    In markets, Bitcoin instantly responded to the rollercoaster of headlines, initially down 3% but then surging to erase losses. Now moving lower. 

    To sum up, US officials say Israel ‘isn’t looking’ for an escalation with Iran. Maybe Brent >$100/bbl is why… 

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    And if there was any retaliation strike against Iran by Israel, the US would not be joining. 

    *   *   * 

    Update (0700ET): There are mounting concerns that Israel could strike back. If so, Iran warned Washington that US military bases could be in the crosshairs of missiles and suicide drones. 

    “Our response will be much larger than tonight’s military action if Israel retaliates against Iran,” Iran’s armed forces chief of staff, Major General Mohammad Bagheri, told state media, as quoted by The Times of Israel. He said that Tehran warned Washington that any backing of an Israeli retaliation strike would result in US bases being targeted. 

    “If the Zionist regime (Israel) or its supporters demonstrate reckless behavior, they will receive a decisive and much stronger response,” Iran’s president Ebrahim Raisi said in a statement.

    Update(Midnight ET): It is just after 7am Israel local time and Israel’s military is reporting the Iranian attack has stopped, several hours after Iran said its ‘limited’ operation has “concluded” – which involved an unprecedented hundreds of suicide drones as as well as ballistic missiles sent against Israel in retaliation for the April 1st Israeli attack on Iran’s embassy in Damascus. Below is the top story from English-language Times of Israel: 

    Hebrew media reports claim that not a single drone or cruise missile managed to infiltrate Israeli airspace.

    According to the unsourced reports, most ballistic missiles were also knocked down outside of Israeli airspace.

    A report in Ynet says some 20 cruise missiles were downed short of Israel’s borders. The US, UK and Jordan helped take down many of the drones.

    Israel is reporting very little damage inside the country (though previously admitting “minor damage” against at least one key airbase in the south). 

    After the enormous Iranian drone and missile swarm a senior Israeli official has been quoted by Israel’s Channel 12 as saying “Iran’s attack was a strategic failure.” The official added in a threatening manner, “Now they can get ready and not sleep in peace.” Israel’s war cabinet appears to be readying a military response…

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    Crucially, the Biden White House appears to be strongly signaling to the Netanyahu government that the attack is ‘done’ and that the United States will not back any follow-up counterattack operations against Iran:

    US President Joe Biden told Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the US will not aid any Israeli counterattack on Iran, US media report, citing senior administration officials.

    Axios and CNN report that message was passed during a phone call between the pair.

    Axios reports that Biden told Netyanyahu the US will oppose any Israeli counterattack.

    CNN reports that Biden said the US will not take part in any such counteraction.

      Israel has called on a United Nations Security Council meeting to condemn the Iranian aggression, which is expected to take place late Sunday. The US administration appears to be lobbying for a status quo and for Israel to not mount a strong response. 

      Below is a portion of the Axios report on the Bibi-Biden late night phone call:

      Behind the scenes: Biden told Netanyahu the joint defensive efforts by Israel, the U.S. and other countries in the region led to the failure of the Iranian attack, according to the White House official.

      • “You got a win. Take the win,” Biden told Netanyahu, according to the official.
      • The official said that when Biden told Netanyahu that the U.S. will not participate in any offensive operations against Iran and will not support such operations, Netanyahu said he understood.
      • U.S. Secretary of State Lloyd Austin spoke on Saturday with his Israeli counterpart Yoav Gallant and asked that Israel notify the U.S. ahead of any response against Iran, a senior Israeli official said.

      Meanwhile, Israel’s official channels are filled with ‘fighting words’ like the following:

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      * * * 

      Update(20:00ET): CNN is reporting there have been several explosion on the ground across Israel, but there’s yet to be official confirmation of the extent of casualties. Israeli media is reporting the first as follows: “Medics treating first injury from Iran attack – a 10-year-old boy from Bedouin town near Arad in serious condition.” The IDF spokesman is confirming at least one of its military bases has been hit in the south by an Iranian cruise missile, sustaining “minor damage”. This was reportedly at Dimona, where Israel reportedly has undeclared nuclear weapons, making such a strike highly dangerous. Further Iran’s IRNA is reporting:

      Iran successfully struck the Israeli airbase in the Negev Desert with ‘Khaybar’ ballistic missiles.

      Importantly, Times of Israel is reporting that Israel’s military is preparing a response, in what is likely to become a continuing tit-for-tat in the coming days:

      Israel plans a “significant response” to the unprecedented Iranian drone salvo against it, top-rated Channel 12 TV quotes an unnamed senior Israeli official as saying early on Sunday.

      The IDF has called this new attack a “major escalation”. Over “200 different kinds” of projectiles were fired toward Israel, the IDF spokesman said. For more than the past week Israeli leaders have firmly warned that should Iran launch retaliation from within its own soil, the Israeli response against the Islamic Republic will be ‘stronger’ – as Netanyahu previously put it. That’s precisely what has happened and so a major Israeli response is likely.

      Below: stunning footage over the Temple Mount of Jerusalem as Israeli anti-air highly active:

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      More over Jerusalem:

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      German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has condemned Iran’s attack on Israel, saying it risks plunging the entire region “into chaos.”

      “We condemn the ongoing attack in the strongest possible terms, risking to plunge an entire region into chaos,” Baerbock wrote on X. “Iran and its proxies must stop this immediately. In these hours, we stand firmly by Israel.” However, by and large there was silence from European and NATO leaders when Israel mounted an unprecedented attack on Iran’s embassy in Damascus on April 1st.

      Meanwhile, the US says it is still intercepting inbound drones and missiles. The IDF says it has “numerous” fighter jets in the air right now. Iran has warned Washington not do get involved in the conflict, saying American bases in the region are at risk if it does so.

      An extremely vague Biden statement:

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      Al Jazeera LIVE FEED:

      * * *

      Update(1845): Ballistic missiles are still in the air headed for Israel along with more than 100 drones. Live visuals have shown projectiles falling on Israel. Iran is now very publicly saying the matter has “concluded”:

      IRAN’S UN MISSION: “Iran’s military action was in response to the Zionist regime’s aggression against our diplomatic premises in Damascus. The matter can be deemed concluded. However, should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iran’s response will be considerably more severe. It is a conflict between Iran and the rogue Israeli regime, from which the U.S. MUST STAY AWAY!”

      From Israel’s perspective, Iran has now crossed a red line, and Netanyahu is likely to now see himself as having carte blanche to take out Iran nuclear facilities.

      * * *

      Update(1805): Iranian state media has just reported that the elite IRGC has launched its first wave of ballistic and(or) cruise missiles at Israel. Already an estimated hundreds of drones are headed toward Israel. It appears Iran is seeking to overwhelm Israel’s anti-air defense systems. The United States is expected to help Israel intercept this barrage. There are statements from the Houthis saying they have also launched rockets against Israel, and there are fears Hezbollah is about to unleash a barrage too, with early reports saying dozens of Katyusha rockets have already been sent into northern Israel tonight. Unconfirmed reports have said rockets have been launched from Iranian assets in Syria too.

      Below is the IRGC confirmation via PressTV: “In response to the Zionist regime’s numerous crimes, including the attack on the consular section of Iran’s Embassy in Damascus and the martyrdom of a number of our country’s commanders and military advisors in Syria, the IRGC’s Aerospace Division launched tens of missiles and drones against certain targets inside the occupied territories,” the statement read. At this point the question is which will hit first: the slower-moving drones which were launched well over an hour ago, or the ballistic missiles which are likely to take less than 30 minutes to reach their targets.

      The Iranian attack has an official name, and Tehran is warning that the US and foreign countries must ‘stay away’ from the conflict…

      IRAN’S REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS SAYS OPERATION ‘TRUE PROMISE’ IS PART OF PUNISHMENT FOR ISRAELI CRIMES’ – IRANIAN STATE TV

       

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      Already hawks in the US are urging Biden to intervene heavily on the side of Israel…

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      According to an unconfirmed note:

      Al Jazeera citing Channel 12: British fighters participate with American fighters in intercepting Iranian marches in the airspace of Jordan and Syria.

      Geopolitical analyst Max Abrahms writes that “Iran and Israel are now at war. A real, direct war.”

      * * *

      Update(1554ET): Axios correspondent Barak Ravid has cited several US and Israeli officials who say Iran’s attack against Israel has started. It is currently almost 11pm in Israel. It could take hours for the drones to reach Israel, however, the big question remains whether Tehran sends ballistic missiles. Both the IDF and the Biden administration have confirmed that drones are en route to Israeli airspace. Iranian state TV also since confirmed. The White House has said the attack is “likely to unfold over a number of hours.”

      “Iran launches attack against Israel using dozens of drones, four U.S. and Israeli officials told me,” Ravid writes. Airspace across Iran, Iran, Jordan, and Israel has reportedly been shut in the last hours. There are reports citing the Jordanian government saying it stands ready to shoot down any drones that violate its airspace. There are also unconfirmed reports that the Houthis have launched projectiles out of Yemen.

      Airspace shut from Iran to Iraq to Jordan…

      Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued the following nighttime speech just ahead of the reported attack:

      “Citizens of Israel, in recent years, and even more so in recent weeks, Israel has been preparing for the possibility of a direct attack from Iran,” the premier says in a video statement. “Our defense systems are deployed, and we are prepared for any scenario, both in defense and offense. The State of Israel is strong, the IDF is strong, the public is strong.”

      “We appreciate the US for standing by Israel’s side as well as the support of the UK, France and many other countries.” “I established a clear principle — whoever hurts us, we will hurt them. We will defend ourselves from any threat and we will do so calmly and with determination.”

      “I know that you, the citizens of Israel, are also keeping calm. I urge you to listen to the directives of the Home Front Command.”

      “Together we stand, and with God’s help, together we will overcome all of our enemies,” Netanyahu says.

      Schools in Israel and public gatherings have been closed for the coming days. The IDF is giving the citizenry guidelines about seeking bomb shelters and awaiting instructions.

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      Crypto is crashing on the news…

       

      President Joe Biden has reportedly cut short a beach vacation to head back to the White House where he’s meeting with his national security team, monitoring the attacks, as well as Israel’s defense. It’s as yet unclear if Iran has launched ballistic missiles, following the initial drone salvo. Fox News is reporting that the head of US Central Command, Michael Kurilla, has safely departed Israel.

      Israel’s Home Front command has issued the following emergency notification restricting gatherings across the country in anticipation of inbound Iranian projectiles. There are also “work from home” orders being issued, especially for non-essential government personnel.

      Meanwhile just yesterday…

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      * * *

      The past days have seen American diplomats in a global push to get countries to hold back Iran from launching a retaliatory attack on Israel for its April 1st embassy attack in Damascus.

      Washington is especially leaning on China, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia in hopes that a united diplomatic front could deescalate the situation, at a moment Israel is bracing for an assault.

      US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken met with several officials over the past week, including Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. “We have also engaged with European allies and partners over the past few days and urged them as well to send a clear message to Iran: that escalation is not in Iran’s interest, it’s not in the region’s interest and it’s not in the world’s interest,” a statement from the State Department indicated.

      Blinken “has been making clear to every country that has any semblance of a relationship with Iran that it is in their interest to use that relationship to send a message to Iran that they should not escalate this conflict. But I will let those countries speak for themselves about what action they may or may not take,” the statement from spokesman Matthew Miller said.

      Miller added that US has also “engaged with European allies and partners over the past few days” to deliver a message urging restraint to Iran. British Foreign Secretary David Cameron and German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock have also been engaging the Iranian foreign minister in recent days.

      Blinken’s message to Turkey and Saudi Arabia was that they should “urge Iran not to escalate.” Going into this weekend, it’s being widely reported that a major Iranian attack, possibly including ballistic missiles and drones, remains ‘imminent’. US officials have told media sources that Iran has been observed moving major military assets including missile systems.

      Though Iranian operatives on Saturday morning have seized an Israeli-linked tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, it seems the ‘big attack’ is still on hold for now.

      The Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar, suggests there may be a diplomatic way out that avoids full Iranian military retaliation. Iran is “proposing the following: If a ceasefire is reached in Gaza and Israel does not attack the city of Rafah, it is ready, in order to reduce escalation and tension, not to take any action against Israel at the present time,” the newspaper stated.

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      But it’s anything but clear that a leader like Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would be willing to alter his plans to eradicate Hamas based on dictates from Tehran. Currently, the atmosphere seems one of the calm before the storm.

      Tyler Durden
      Sun, 04/14/2024 – 14:05

    • A Reliable Voting Bloc For Decades, Minorities Now Look For Alternatives To Democrats
      A Reliable Voting Bloc For Decades, Minorities Now Look For Alternatives To Democrats

      Authored by Lawrence Wilson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

      Democrats gathered at the state fairgrounds in Columbia, South Carolina, to await the results of their party’s primary election. President Joe Biden, the only candidate to campaign in the state, won handily, as expected.

      (Illustration by The Epoch Times, Getty Images, Shutterstock)

      From the podium, Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.), 83, took a call from the chief executive, who thanked South Carolinians for their support. Applause followed, with congratulations all around.

      As the modest crowd dispersed, Mr. Clyburn spoke with the press. The veteran congressman and staunch Biden ally said that the president’s support among black voters remained unshakable.

      “The best illustration of that is that he got 96 percent of the vote in this primary,” Mr. Clyburn said. “But his largest percentage—over 97 percent—was in the town of Orangeburg, where there are two HBCUs [historically black colleges and universities] and a community college.”

      “I go to an African American barbershop,” Mr. Clyburn said. “I go to an African American Church. Joe Biden is as strong with African Americans as he has ever been.”

      Mr. Clyburn’s view defies the findings of several recent polls and contradicts a trend that has been observable for several years. Namely, that Democrats have a problem with black voters, especially men. Hispanic voters, too.

      Over the last eight years, minority voters have slowly but steadily migrated away from associating themselves with the Democratic Party, a movement that appears to be led by men.

      An April poll from The Wall Street Journal shows that 30 percent of black men in battleground states intend to vote for Donald Trump. Hispanic voters who lean Republican are approaching parity with those who lean Democrat.

      In simplest terms, analysts say, it amounts to a classic case of leaders being blind to generational change, taking their constituents for granted, and failing to deliver on the most basic function of government—to create conditions in which people can thrive.

      It is unclear whether Democrats can halt—or at least counter—this decline in minority support before the November election. What is clear is that the demographic composition of both parties is in flux. These shifting political allegiances could significantly impact both the 2024 election and the future of party politics.

      A man holds a ‘Blacks for Trump’ sign as he waits to see Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump at an event in Sterling Heights, Mich., on Nov. 6, 2016. (Jeff Kowalsky/AFP via Getty Images)

      Steady Migration

      Support for the Democratic Party among black and Hispanic voters has been eroding for years.

      The percentage of black voters who “lean Democrat” topped out at near 90 percent in 2008 but fell to 66 percent by 2023, the lowest level yet recorded according to data from Gallup’s annual polling on the subject.

      Meanwhile, the percentage of black voters who “lean Republican” rose from single digits to 19 percent over the same period.

      The percentage of Hispanic voters who “lean Democrat” fell from about 60 percent in 2016 to 47 percent in 2023, while the percentage of those who “lean Republican” rose from about 25 percent to 35 percent.

      A similar shift occurred among Asian-American voters. Some 30 percent of Asian Americans voted Republican in 2020 according to Gallup. That’s up from 18 percent in 2016, according to exit polling. In California, the shift was even more pronounced with 54 percent of Asian American voters favoring Trump in 2020 according to the Asian American Legal Defense and Education Fund.

      “It shows up consistently in survey after survey, and it also shows up in actual electoral results going back to 2016,” Matthew Wilson, a professor at Southern Methodist University, told The Epoch Times.

      “And there’s just real movement and more diversity in the electoral outcomes in [predominantly black and Hispanic precincts] than had been true in the past. So I think Democrats who are inclined to write it off as artificial are engaged in wishful thinking because it shows up in multiple different indicators.”

      And the shift is being driven by multiple factors, observers say, which may vary by ethnic group.

      Supporters cheer President Joe Biden as he speaks during a rally at Florida Memorial University in Miami Gardens, Fla., on Nov. 1, 2022. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

      Failure to Improve

      A signal issue that cuts across ethnic lines is the perceived failure of the Biden administration to improve the economic condition of the people.

      “Unfortunately, Biden can’t hide from this economy, and minorities are losing trust in it,” Charlie Kolean of the R.E.D. political action committee told The Epoch Times. “Minorities see that big government is no longer helping them but hurting them.”

      That matches the finding of Whitley Yates, diversity engagement director for the Indiana Republican Party.

      “For the black community in general, they have been lied to consistently. They have been promised things every election cycle and have been used by the Democratic Party to remain in positions of power without any type of progress for those communities,” Ms. Yates told The Epoch Times.

      Black unemployment was low and median household income rising under President Trump, according to Ms. Yates, but President Biden was able to appeal to black voters based on promises of student loan relief and the legalization of marijuana, seen as a criminal justice issue by many black Americans.

      While hundreds of thousands of student loans have been partially paid or forgiven under President Biden, the economic life of many black citizens has worsened. “The way this economy has impacted the black community has been catastrophic. Inflation and the consumer price index have gone up astronomically, which has hurt businesses,” Ms. Yates said. “People began to realize that it was a lot of smoke and mirrors.”

      To some extent, this shift in allegiance plays out along generational lines, at least among black voters, according to Marcurius Byrd, a Democratic organizer from Columbia, South Carolina.

      “Our generation didn’t grow up with the things that a lot of people who lived through the Civil Rights era did,” Mr. Byrd told The Epoch Times. “The Democratic Party has given them more victories within their lifetimes. We haven’t really seen that in the younger generations.”

      For many black voters, the question for Democrats appears to be “What have you done for me lately?”

      “There’s a thirst for someone who’s not going to just talk about what’s wrong, but who is going to produce tangible policies that people can feel,” Ms. Yates said.

      “Biden’s biggest worry is that black voters see him as not delivering on voting rights, responsible for inflation, and failing to stop Israel’s devastation of Gaza.” Donald Nieman, professor of history and provost emeritus at Binghamton University, State University of New York.

      Democrats are also at risk of losing Asian American voters based on economic performance. In a recent AAPI Data/AP-NORC survey, 67 percent of Asian voters said they disagreed with President Biden’s handling of inflation (67 percent), the economy (58 percent), and student debt (54 percent). More than 40 percent of registered Asian voters said inflation was the most important issue in a Gallup survey.

      Read more here…

      Tyler Durden
      Sun, 04/14/2024 – 14:00

    • 'Retaliation Risk' – What Wall Street Thinks Ahead Of Market Open
      ‘Retaliation Risk’ – What Wall Street Thinks Ahead Of Market Open

      The first actual ‘market’ response we have seen to Iran’s attack on Israel is in crypto, which saw – rather intriguingly – a huge puke as the drones/missiles flew, and then some comeback as the impact of the attack seemed marginal at worst (and for now retaliation remains muted)…

      Source: Bloomberg

      But, this afternoon is when things will really heat up as FX and futures markets open, with much riding on whether Iran’s unprecedented weekend strike on Israel triggers rounds of retaliation.

      Amid already frayed nerves from resurrected inflation fears and higher-for-longer rates outlooks, geopolitical risk premia will be forced top of mind.

      “Investors’ natural reaction is to look for safe-haven assets in moments like this,” said Patrick Armstrong, chief investment officer at Plurimi Wealth LLP.

      “Reactions will be somewhat dependent on Israel’s response. If Israel does not escalate from here, it may provide an opportunity to buy risk assets at lower prices.”

      For now, the optimists may be winning as Iran’s statement that “the matter can be deemed concluded” and a report that President Biden told Israeli PM Netanyahu that the US won’t support an Israeli counterattack against Iran, seems to be driving down the odds of a more escalatory retaliation (meaning anything other than a ‘theatrical’ response).

      Bloomberg reports that stock markets in Saudi Arabia and Qatar posted modest losses under thin trading volumes…

      Source: Bloomberg

      …while Israeli stocks fluctuated and ended with a very modest gain.

      Source: Bloomberg

      “Middle Eastern markets opened with relative calm following Iran’s attack, which was perceived as a measured retaliation, rather than an attempt at escalation,” said Emre Akcakmak, a senior consultant at East Capital in Dubai.

      “However, the market impact might extend beyond the Middle East due to secondary effects on oil and energy prices, potentially influencing the global inflation outlook.”

      Worries about turmoil in the region have also been filtering through global markets. The S&P 500 is coming off its biggest weekly decline since October on the back of higher-than-expected inflation and disappointing bank earnings.

      Here’s what investors and analysts are saying (courtesy of Bloomberg):

      Erik Meyersson, chief emerging markets strategist at SEB:

      “Our oil analysts do not see much sign of a geopolitical risk premium in oil prices so far. We expect this to reflect market perceptions of low risks of escalation up until now. This equilibrium is likely to be tested if Iran and Israel continue to attack each other.”

      Gonzalo Lardies, senior equities fund manager at Andbank:

      “A new environment of uncertainty is now opening up, but the market on Friday already partially priced in this situation, so if it does not get worse the impact should not be very high. The risk is if this situation escalates and there is contagion in the region.”

      Alfonso Benito, chief investment officer at Dunas Capital:

      “I wouldn’t expect sharp drops given how Israel has defended its air shield. We should see defense companies up, oil up and gas up, while airlines could decline. Bonds will rise, but I don’t think excessively. Investors could take advantage to partially correct the increases of recent months.”

      Joachim Klement, a strategist at Liberum:

      “The reaction will very much depend on the reaction of Israel today and whether the US can manage to restrain Benjamin Netanyahu.”

      “In the next couple of days, stock markets will focus on the geopolitical situation, rather than central bank action or the strong economy in the US. Hence, we expect the rally to stall until there is more clarity if the situation in Iran-Israel calms down. If we end up in a shooting war between Israel and Iran, then the rally will be stalled for longer.”

      Mark Matthews, strategist at Bank Julius Baer in Singapore:

      “The good thing is that Iran did warn about the attack well beforehand. Military analysts say it was done in a way that minimized casualties. I don’t see why it would cause Fed rate expectations to fall more or it would cause the oil price to go up a lot. Iran is trying to defuse this and so is the US. The key is what Israel’s answer will be, and then Iran’s answer to that. If Israel does a de-escalatory strike, and then the Iranians do an even more de-escalatory strike, then it will be over with.”

      Geoff Yu, senior strategist for EMEA Markets at BNY Mellon in London:

      “There is scope for further accumulation of dollars, even with recent buying after the CPI data. Our clients remain overweight the euro, Canadian dollar and some high-carry currencies such as the Mexican peso, so this is where we would watch for rotation in the greenback’s favor.”

      Neil Shearing, chief economist at Capital Economics in London:

      “Our sense is that events in the Middle East will add to the reasons for the Fed to adopt a more cautious approach to rate cuts, but they won’t prevent it from cutting altogether. We expect the first move in September. And assuming that the energy prices don’t spiral over the next month or so, we think that both the ECB and BOE will cut in June.”

      US equity and bond futures will open at 6 p.m. New York time Sunday; FX markets before that.

      Tyler Durden
      Sun, 04/14/2024 – 13:25

    • Trump: "Everything Biden Touches Turns To $hit"
      Trump: “Everything Biden Touches Turns To $hit”

      Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

      During a huge rally in Schnecksville, Pennsylvania Saturday night, Donald Trump blasted Joe Biden, reeling off a list of massive failures and urging that “everything he touches turns to shit.”

      Trump was speaking while Iran, which just four years ago was crippled under Trump, but in the past three years has prospered after Biden eased sanctions, decided to launch a full on military attack on Israel.

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      “Before going any further, I want to say God bless the people of Israel,” Trump stated, adding “They’re under attack right now. That’s because we show great weakness.”

      Trump urged that such an attack would never have happened under his watch.

      “America prays for Israel,” he stated, adding “We send our absolute support to everyone in harm’s way. This is an attack that would not have happened. I mean, to think about what we have to go through and the things we put up with, with the border, with no energy independence.”

      Trump vowed to “revive American strength abroad” and “rebuild the greatest economy in the history of the world,” noting that inflation is now “close to four percent again.”

      “First of all, Crooked Joe, he claimed inflation was transitory, remember that? Then he said, ‘oh, it’s temporary’, then he said, ‘it won’t happen, it really won’t happen’,” Trump asserted, adding “And then he said, ‘Well, it’s much higher than expected,’ and then the supply chain slows, and then the energy went through the roof.”

      He continued, “All of America knows that the real blame for this nightmare lies with one person. Crooked Joe Biden,” adding “As crooked as you can get. That’s why the people of Pennsylvania are going to tell crooked Joe, ‘You’re fired get out! You’re fired!’”

      “One of the leading drivers of Biden’s inflation disaster is his war on American energy, and Pennsylvania energy is a big problem,” Trump further iterated, prompting the crowd to break into chants of “Genocide Joe! Genocide Joe! Genocide Joe!”

      “They’re not wrong,” Trump responded, adding “He’s done everything wrong. Think of it, we’ve been in this mess together for three and a half years. Only a little more than six months until that most important day in the history of our country, November 5th. Think of that. But, what has he done that’s good? Nothing. Has anything that he’s done turned out? Everything he touches turns to shit.”

      Trump pointed out that since Biden took office “gasoline prices are up over 50 percent and electricity prices are up 39 percent, rising 13 times faster” than in the previous seven years.

      “When I’m back in the White House, we will end Joe Biden’s inflation train wreck and we will tell Pennsylvania, drill, baby, drill,” Trump promised, adding “Under my leadership, we had energy independence, and soon we would have had energy dominance.”

      The full speech is below:

      In the wake of Iran’s actions yesterday, many on X pointed out exactly how this is another example of Biden’s Midas in reverse touch:

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      Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

      Tyler Durden
      Sun, 04/14/2024 – 12:50

    • Israel's Defense Against Iran Attack Overnight 'Likely Cost Over $1 Billion'
      Israel’s Defense Against Iran Attack Overnight ‘Likely Cost Over $1 Billion’

      Via Middle East Eye

      It cost Israel more than $1bn to activate its defense systems that intercepted Iran’s massive drone and missile attack overnight,  according to a former financial adviser to Israel’s military. 

      “The defence tonight was on the order of 4-5bn shekels [$1-1.3bn] per night,” estimated Brigadier General Reem Aminoach in an interview with Ynet news.

      Iranian Army via AP

      Aminoach highlighted that the staggering price tag stands in contrast to the relatively low amount that Iran had spent to launch its assault, which some estimates have put at less than 10 percent of what it cost Israel to stop the attack. 

      Iran launched more than 300 drones and missiles towards Israel on Saturday, in response to an Israeli attack on its consulate in Syria that killed two senior Revolutionary Guard commanders earlier this month.

      Israel said its military forces and its allies had intercepted 99 percent of the missiles, but some ballistic missiles penetrated Israeli defences and hit the Nevatim Airbase in southern Israel. 

      “If we’re talking about ballistic missiles that need to be brought down with an Arrow system, cruise missiles that need to be brought down with other missiles, and UAVs [unmanned aerial vehicles], which we actually bring down mainly with fighter jets,” he said. 

      “Then add up the costs – $3.5m for an Arrow missile, $1m for a David’s Sling, such and such costs for jets. An order of magnitude of 4-5bn shekels.”

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      David’s Sling is a weapons system meant to intercept medium to long-range rockets and missiles. The Arrow system was designed to thwart long-range missiles, including the types of ballistic missiles Iran launched on Saturday and of long-range missiles launched by the Houthis in Yemen.

      Tyler Durden
      Sun, 04/14/2024 – 11:40

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