Jul 18

Today’s News 18th July 2018

  • America's 'Gift' To The World: Visualizing 70 Years Of US Arms Exports

    Back in April, the Trump administration rolled out a new “Buy American” initiative aimed at allowing more countries to buy more and even bigger weapons. It will loosen U.S. export rules on equipment ranging from fighter jets and drones to warships and artillery, the officials said.

    Some more details on the new weapons sales policy:

    Reuters has learned that the initiative will provide guidelines that could allow more countries to be granted faster deal approvals, possibly trimming back to months what has often taken years to finalize. The strategy will call for members of Trump’s cabinet to sometimes act as “closers” to help seal major arms deals, according to people familiar with the matter. More top government officials will also be sent to promote U.S. weapons at international air shows and arms bazaars.

    While human rights and arms control advocates are warning that the proliferation of a broader range of advanced weaponry to more foreign governments could increase the risk of arms being diverted into the wrong hands and fueling violence in regions such as the Middle East and South Asia, this is of little import to an administration obsessed with closing the US trade deficit, even it means closing it by selling nukes to the highest bidder.

    The Trump administration stresses that the main aims are to help American defense firms compete better against increasingly aggressive Russian and Chinese manufacturers and give greater weight than before to economic benefits of arms sales to create more jobs at home.

    “This policy seeks to mobilize the full resources of the United States government behind arms transfers that are in the U.S. national and economic security interest,” a White House official said, responding to a request for comment on the story.

    “We recognize that arms transfers may have important human rights consequences,” the official said. “Nothing in this policy changes existing legal or regulatory requirements in this regard.”

    It will probably not come as a surprise to anyone that the main architects of the new policy has been economist Peter Navarro, a China trade skeptic ascendant in Trump’s inner circle. His effort to boost arms exports has drawn little resistance within the White House, Reuters officials said.

    But, as the following stunning animation shows, US exports of arms has been going strong since at least 1950…

    The United States of Arms from Will Geary on Vimeo.

    After all, America’s Military-Industrial Complex needs to pay the bills…

    sdf

    And at a time when Trump faces the most push-back from the deep state over his Helsinki comments, an accelerated “buy American weapons” program will also not draw opposition from the military-industrial complex.

  • Psychoanalysing NATO: Gaslighting

    Authored by Patrick Armstrong via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    NOTE: Because “NATO” these days is little more than a box of spare parts out of which Washington assembles “coalitions of the willing”, it’s easier for me to write “NATO” than “Washington plus/minus these or those minions”.

    Home Secretary Sajid Javid has called on Russia to explain “exactly what has gone on” after two people were exposed to the Novichok nerve agent in Wiltshire. (BBC)

    The Russian state could put this wrong right. They could tell us what happened. What they did. And fill in some of the significant gaps that we are trying to pursue. We have said they can come and tell us what happened. I’m waiting for the phone call from the Russian state. The offer is there. They are the ones who could fill in all the clues to keep people safe. (UK security minister Ben Wallace)

    Leaving aside their egregious flouting of the elemental principle of English justice, note that they’re uttering this logical idiocy: Russia must have done it because it hasn’t proved it didn’t. Note also, in Javid’s speech, the amusing suggestion that Russia keeps changing its story; but to fit into the official British story “novichok” must be an instantly lethal slow acting poison which dissipates quickly but lasts for months.

    This is an attempt to manipulate our perception of reality. In a previous essay I discussed NATO’s projection of its own actions onto Russia. In this piece I want to discuss another psychological manipulation – gaslighting.

    The expression comes from the movie Gaslight in which the villain manipulates her reality to convince his wife that she is insane. Doubt the official Skripal story and it is you – you “Russian troll” – who is imagining things. Only Russian trolls would question Litvinenko’s deathbed accusation written in perfect English handed to us by a Berezovskiy flunky; or the shootdown of MH17; or the invasion of Ukraine; or the cyber attack on Estonia. Only a Russian troll would observe that the fabulously expensive NATO intelligence agencies apparently get their information from Bellingcat. Argumentum ad trollem is everywhere: count the troll accusations here or admire the clever anticipatory use of the technique there.

    This is classic gaslighting – I’m telling the truth, you’re the crazy one.

    We may illustrate the eleven signs of “gaslighting” given in Psychiatry Today by Stephanie A. Sarkis with recent events.

    They tell blatant lies.

    The Skripals were poisoned by an incredibly deadly nerve agent that left them with no visible symptoms for hours but not so deadly that it killed them; at least not at Easter; nor the policeman; a nerve agent that could only have been made in Russia although its recipe was published in the open media; that poison having been administered on a doorknob that each had to have touched at the exact same minute that no one else touched; a nerve agent so deadly that they only bothered to clean up the sites 51 days later. And so on: a different story every day. But your mind must be controlled by Putin if you smell a falsehood at any point. And, now we have it all over again: apparently the fiendishly clever Russian assassins smeared the doorknob and then, rather than getting out of town ASAP, sauntered over into a park to toss the container. (Remember the fiendishly clever Russian assassins who spread polonium everywhere?)

    And, speaking of proven, long term, repeating liars: remember when accusing the British government of complicity in torture renditions was a conspiracy theory? Well, it turns out the conspiracy was by the other side. “Conspiracy Theorist” is the perfect gaslighting accusation, by the way: you’re the crazy one.

    They deny they ever said something, even though you have proof.

    The Skripal case gives a perfect illustration: here’s the UK Foreign Secretary saying Porton Down told him it was Russian (“absolutely categorical”) And here’s the UK Foreign Office disappearing the statement: We never said Porton Down confirmed the origin. It’s rare to get such a quick exposure of a lie, so it’s useful to have this example. Here is an obvious fake from Bellingcat. Already the Douma story is being re-polished now that the OPCW has said no organophosphates.

    Most of the time it takes years to reveal the lie: gaslighters know the details will be forgotten while the impression remains. 64 years later we learn the “conspiracy theorists” were right about the CIA/UK involvement in the Iran coup. It’s rather amazing how many people still believe the proven liars this time around.

    They use what is near and dear to you as ammunition. 

    Russians cheat at the sports you follow, scatter nerve agents and radioactive material in places you could be in, sneak into the voting booth with you, blow up airplanes you might be on and tear up the “very fabric of our democracy.” Your favourite actor tells you “we are at war with Russia“.

    And the children! The boy on the beach. The boy in the ambulance. Bana from Aleppo. Miraculous recoveries.  Dramatic rescues with camera! Dead children speaking. And finally, the little girl, Trump and the Time cover.

    If it’s a child, they’re gaslighting you.

    They wear you down over time.

    Skripal story fading? How about a CW attack in Syria? No? Back to MH17: same story with one new obviously suspicious detail. Pussy Riot is forgotten and Pavlenskiy an embarrassment, but “Russian bear in Moscow World Cup parade video sparks PETA outrage“! This is what is known as a Gish Gallop: the gaslighter makes 47 assertions, while you’re thinking about the first, he makes 20 more: in former times it was recognised by the the folk saying that “a fool can ask more questions than ten wise men can answer”. But the fools quickly come up with more: dead dogs in Russia: without tuk-tuks, with tuk-tuks; your choice.

    You are worn down by ten new fake outrages every month: all expressed in simplistic terms. How much context is stuffed into this imbecilic headline? The Plot Against Europe: Putin, Hungary and Russia’s New Iron Curtain. How many thousand words, how many hours to discuss it intelligently? Too late! Time for “Trump and Putin’s Too-Friendly Summit” (NYT 28 June). Forget that! “Sexism at Russia World Cup the worst in history as female fans and broadcasters are harassed“. (Telegraph 30 June). Gone! “We already gave Syria to Putin, so what’s left for Trump to say?” (WaPo 5 July) Stop wondering! “Amesbury poisoning: Here’s what we know about the novichok victims” (Sky News 6 July). No! Trumputin again! “Will Trump Be Meeting With His Counterpart — Or His Handler?” (NY Mag 8 July). Gish Gallop. The sheer volume of easily-made accusations forces two conclusions: they’re right and you’re wrong (smoke: fire) or, more simply, eventually you – you crazy one! – give up.

    Their actions do not match their words.

    They bomb hospitals on purpose, we bomb them by accident. Discussed further here but the essence of the point is that

    it would be physically impossible for Russia to be more destructive than NATO is.

    If you want a single word to summarize American war-making in this last decade and a half, I would suggest rubble.

    They throw in positive reinforcement to confuse you.

    There are direct rewards of course: cue Udo Ulfkotte; many benefits to swimming with the stream; swimming the other way, not so many. It’s only after they retire that British generals question the story, the cynic observes. German generals too. Maybe even US generals.

    But for the rest of us, NATO bathes us in gush: “NATO’s Enduring Mission – Defending Values, Together”. Together, our values: we – you and I – have the good values. NATO loves to praise itself “the Alliance also contributes to peace and stability through crisis management operations and partnerships.” Remember Libya? “A model intervention” said the NATO GenSek of the time. Here is the view on the ground. Most of the “migrants” tearing Europe apart are fleeing the destruction of NATO’s wars. NATO backs (plus/minus minions) the intervention in Mali, a country destabilised by its destruction of Libya. Cue the positive reinforcement: “Projecting Stability: an agenda for action“. In NATOland the gaslight burns bright: “Nato chief: Vladimir Putin ‘weaponising’ refugee crisis to ‘break’ Europe“. NATO keeps pouring butterscotch sauce on the rubble: “NATO is based on some core values – democracy, the rule of law, individual liberty” (25 June).

    All I can say, over and over again, is Libya. NATO destroyed Libya, weird as it was, killed Qaddafi, weird as he was, and smugly congratulated itself: “NATO’s Victory in Libya: The Right Way to Run an Intervention“. Ubi solitudinum faciunt pacem appelant. But should that thought occur to you, you’re part of “Russia’s secret plan to destroy EU and NATO“.

    They know confusion weakens people.

    Remember PropOrNot? Sites that do not agree with the Establishment are Russian bots! Authenticated experts! 100% reliable! The WaPo published the list; when under attack even from proponents of the Putindunnit hysteria, it feebly backtracked: it “does not itself vouch for the validity”. Vermont power grid hack? WaPo fell for that one too. Confusion from the endless Gish Gallop about Putin: in December 2015 I compiled a number: Aspergers, pychopath, slouching and on and on and on.

    You may be confused but the gaslighter isn’t: Russia’s to blame for whatever-it-was!

    They project.

    NATO projects all the time and this headline from the NYT is classic: “Russia’s Military Drills Near NATO Border Raise Fears of Aggression“. I discuss NATO’s projection here.

    They try to align people against you.

    NATO exerts a continual pressure for unanimity. Again, the Skripal story is a good example: London accused Russia and, “in solidarity“, Russian diplomats were expelled all over the world. Allies took its word for it. Now the doubts: in Germany especially. Sanctions must be imposed on Russia because we must be in solidarity with Kiev. “Solidarity” on migrants. “Solidarity” is perhaps the greatest virtue in NATOland. We will hear more pleas for solidarity as NATO dies: when mere “solidarity” is the only reason left; there’s no reason left.

    They tell you or others that you are crazy.

    It also must be said that when elected officials — including members of Congress — and media platforms amplify propaganda disseminated by Russian trolls, they are aiding the Russians in their efforts.

    The goal is to undermine democracy. So you want America to look unstable and Americans not to trust each other.

    How Russian Trolls Won American Hearts andMinds

    An “existential threat posed by digitally accelerated disinformation“. So no forgiveness to you, crazy Putin trolls. And don’t dare doubt that American democracy is so feeble that it can be directed by a few Facebook ads. Never forget that NATO’s opponents are crazy: Putin is a “madman“; Qaddafi was “crazy“; Saddam Hussein “insane“; Milosevic “rabid“. Only crazy people would defend crazy people.

    They tell you everyone else is a liar.

    Honest people don’t have to tell you they’re trustworthy, and neither, once upon a time, did the BBC. The Atlantic Council smoothly moves from “Why Is the Kremlin So Fixated on Phantom Fascists?” in May 2017 to “Ukraine’s Got a Real Problem with Far-Right Violence (And No, RT Didn’t Write This Headline)” in June 2018. But it still calls Russia the liar: “Why the Kremlin’s Lies Stick” (May 2018). The Atlantic Council hopes you’re dumb enough not to notice that Russia hasn’t changed its line but the gaslighters have. (Remember O’Brien and two plus two?)

    Russian Federation is not the USSR.

    I said it the last time: the USSR did lots of things in its time – influencing, fiddling elections, fake news, gaslighting and so on. But, in those days the Communist Party was the “leading and guiding force” but today it’s the opposition. Things have changed in Moscow, but NATO rolls on.

    Some hope, though.

    While many people are still taken in by the gaslighters, there are hopeful signs. Once upon a time Internet versions of the mass media allowed comments. Gradually, one by one, they shut down their comments sections because of “trolls”, “fake news” and offended “standards” but really because of disagreement. Perhaps the most famous case is that of the Guardian: an entire website, has been created by people whose comments were rejected because they violated “community standards”. I always read the comments in the Daily Mail, especially the best rated, and on the Skripal stories, the comments are very sceptical indeed of the official story. For example.

    This is rather encouraging: for gaslighting really to work, the gaslighter either has to be in such a position of power that he can completely control the victim’s surroundings or in such a position of authority that the victim cannot imagine doubting what he says. Those days are gone. 

  • Pentagon Wants Quantum Computing As Key Weapon For Space Wars

    As of recent, the world’s dominant military powers realize that the next battleground could be in Low Earth orbit (LEO). China, Russia, and the United States are all preparing for the possibility that a space war could be on the horizon, which has pushed the Pentagon into examining quantum computing as a crucial weapon for improved security for data storage and transmission on space-based military hardware.

    Earlier this month, top Pentagon official Michael Griffin had a meeting with Air Force researchers at Wright Patterson Air Force Base in Ohio to address the future of quantum computing in outer space. Griffin, the undersecretary of defense for research and engineering, has indicated quantum computers and related applications rank fairly high on the Pentagon’s must-do R&D investments, said SpaceNews.

    Quantum computing is one of many technologies where the Pentagon is seriously behind the curve while China continues to progress. The technology is already present in silicon valley for many civilian applications, as military officials now want to transfer the technology into its spacecraft. SpaceNews specifies the Air Force is mainly concentrated on what is known as quantum information science.

    China’s 600-kilogram quantum satellite contains a crystal that produces entangled photons. (Source: Cai Yang/Xinhua via ZUMA Wire) 

    “We see this as a very disruptive technology,” said Michael Hayduk, chief of the computing and communications division at the Air Force Research Laboratory.

    “Artificial intelligence algorithms, highly secure encryption for communications satellites and accurate navigation that does not require GPS signals are some of the most coveted capabilities that would be aided by quantum computing,” explained SpaceNews.

    Earlier this month, Hayduk spoke with the Defense Innovation Board (DIB), a blend of tech executives and researchers who advise the secretary of defense. The DIB gathered at the Pentagon’s Silicon Valley location, the Defense Innovation Unit Experimental, and spoke about the need of transitioning quantum information science technologies into the military’s hands.

    “Quantum computers are the newest generation of supercomputers — powerful machines with a new approach to processing information. Quantum information science is the application of the laws of quantum mechanics to information science,” Hayduk explained. “Unlike traditional computers that are made of bits of zero or one, in quantum computers bits can have both values simultaneously, given them unprecedented processing power.”

    “The Air Force is taking this very seriously, and we’ve invested for quite a while,” Hayduk said.

    The Pentagon finds the technology quite appealing when it comes to protecting hardware from GPS denied environments. “It’s a key area we’re very much interested in,” said Hayduk.

    He noted that some of these technologies could take years to materialize. “In timing and sensing, we see prototype capabilities in a five-year timeframe.” Communications systems and networks for spacecraft would take even longer. Much of these technologies could be deployed by the mid-2020s.

    No GPS signal, no problem: quantum clocks are viewed as an alternative to GPS, said Hayduk. “We’re looking at GPS-like precision in denied environments,” he said. “It often takes several updates to GPS throughout the day to synchronize platforms. We want to be able to move past that, so if we are in a denied environment, we can still stay synchronized.”

    Meanwhile, China is “very serious,” he warned, adding that the Pentagon is actively monitoring other nations’ investment dollars in the quantum computing field. China could be spending $10 billion to $15 billion over the next five years on R&D. SpaceNews even said China has already developed quantum satellites that cannot be hacked.

    Video: Quantum satellite achieves ‘spooky action’ at a record distance

    “They have demonstrated great technology,” said Hayduk. In the U.S., “we have key pieces in place. But we’re looking at more than imitating what China is doing in ground satellite communications. We’re looking at the whole ecosystem: ground, air, space, and form a true network around that.”

    Other countries have been exploring quantum computing for the coming space wars. The United Kingdom is planning a $400 million program for quantum-based sensing and timing. A similar project by the European Union is projected to be worth $1 billion over ten years. Canada, Australia, and Israel also have notable programs. Hayduk said the countries listed are mostly national government programs, “which is very different than what the U.S. has now.”

    The Air Force Research Laboratory expects to play a “key role in developing software and algorithms to drive applications,” he added.

    The next war between major powers is likely to be fought in LEO, or, at a minimum, have a space-based component. While Washington could, in fact, be way behind the curve in intergrating this technology to its space-based hardware, Congress has recently proposed an $800 million funding line in the Pentagon’s budget over the next five years for quantum projects. The current state of affairs of America’s military is riddled with gaps, inconsistencies, and vulnerabilities, which is explained by the decades of unwinnable wars in the Middle East and 800 military bases around the world to thwart the Empire from collapse.

    If the endless wars do not bankrupt this country, it still seems we [US] could be severely lagging behind in technological advances before the next space war breaks out. American exceptionalism is dying.

  • Commandos Sans Frontières: The Global Growth Of U.S. Special Operations Forces

    Authored by Nick Turse via TomDispatch.com,

    Early last month, at a tiny military post near the tumbledown town of Jamaame in Somalia, small arms fire began to ring out as mortar shells crashed down. When the attack was over, one Somali soldier had been wounded — and had that been the extent of the casualties, you undoubtedly would never have heard about it.

    As it happened, however, American commandos were also operating from that outpost and four of them were wounded, three badly enough to be evacuated for further medical care. Another special operator, Staff Sergeant Alexander Conrad, a member of the U.S. Army’s Special Forces (also known as the Green Berets), was killed.

    If the story sounds vaguely familiar — combat by U.S. commandos in African wars that America is technically not fighting — it should. Last December, Green Berets operating alongside local forces in Niger killed 11 Islamic State militants in a firefight. Two months earlier, in October, an ambush by an Islamic State terror group in that same country, where few Americans (including members of Congress) even knew U.S. special operators were stationed, left four U.S. soldiers dead — Green Berets among them. (The military first described that mission as providing “advice and assistance” to local forces, then as a “reconnaissance patrol” as part of a broader “train, advise, and assist” mission, before it was finally exposed as a kill or captureoperation.) Last May, a Navy SEAL was killed and two other U.S. personnel were wounded in a raid in Somalia that the Pentagon described as an “advise, assist, and accompany” mission. And a month earlier, a U.S. commando reportedly killed a member of the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), a brutal militia that has terrorized parts of Central Africa for decades.

    And there had been, as the New York Times noted in March, at least 10 other previously unreported attacks on American troops in West Africa between 2015 and 2017. Little wonder since, for at least five years, as Politicorecently reported, Green Berets, Navy SEALs, and other commandos, operating under a little-understood legal authority known as Section 127e, have been involved in reconnaissance and “direct action” combat raids with African special operators in Somalia, Cameroon, Kenya, Libya, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, and Tunisia.

    None of this should be surprising, since in Africa and across the rest of the planet America’s Special Operations forces (SOF) are regularly engaged in a wide-ranging set of missions including special reconnaissance and small-scale offensive actions, unconventional warfare, counterterrorism, hostage rescue, and security force assistance (that is, organizing, training, equipping, and advising foreign troops). And every day, almost everywhere, U.S. commandos are involved in various kinds of training.

    Unless they end in disaster, most missions remain in the shadows, unknown to all but a few Americans. And yet last year alone, U.S. commandos deployed to 149 countries — about 75% of the nations on the planet. At the halfway mark of this year, according to figures provided to TomDispatch by U.S. Special Operations Command (USSOCOM or SOCOM), America’s most elite troops have already carried out missions in 133 countries. That’s nearly as many deployments as occurred during the last year of the Obama administration and more than double those of the final days of George W. Bush’s White House.

    Going Commando

    “USSOCOM plays an integral role in opposing today’s threats to our nation, to protecting the American people, to securing our homeland, and in maintaining favorable regional balances of power,” General Raymond Thomas, the chief of U.S. Special Operations Command, told members of the House Armed Services Committee earlier this year. “However, as we focus on today’s operations we must be equally focused on required future transformation. SOF must adapt, develop, procure, and field new capabilities in the interest of continuing to be a unique, lethal, and agile part of the Joint Force of tomorrow.”

    Special Operations forces have actually been in a state of transformation ever since September 11, 2001. In the years since, they have grown in every possible way — from their budget to their size, to their pace of operations, to the geographic sweep of their missions. In 2001, for example, an average of 2,900 commandos were deployed overseas in any given week. That number has now soared to 8,300, according to SOCOM spokesman Ken McGraw. At the same time, the number of “authorized military positions” — the active-duty troops, reservists, and National Guardsmen that are part of SOCOM — has jumped from 42,800 in 2001 to 63,500 today. While each of the military service branches — the so-called parent services — provides funding, including pay, benefits, and some equipment to their elite forces, “Special Operations-specific funding,” at $3.1 billion in 2001, is now at $12.3 billion. (The Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marine Corps also provide their special operations units with about $8 billion annually.)

    All this means that, on any given day, more than 8,000 exceptionally well-equipped and well-funded special operators from a command numbering roughly 70,000 active-duty personnel, reservists, and National Guardsmen as well as civilians are deployed in approximately 90 countries. Most of those troops are Green Berets, Rangers, or other Army Special Operations personnel. According to Lieutenant General Kenneth Tovo, head of the U.S. Army Special Operations Command until his retirement last month, that branch provides more than 51% of all Special Operations forces and accounts for more than 60% of their overseas deployments. On any given day, just the Army’s elite soldiers are operating in around 70 countries.

    In February, for instance, Army Rangers carried out several weeks of winter warfare training in Germany, while Green Berets practiced missions involving snowmobiles in Sweden. In April, Green Berets took part in the annual Flintlock multinational Special Operations forces training exercise conducted in Niger, Burkina Faso, and Senegal that involved Nigerien, Burkinabe, Malian, Polish, Spanish, and Portuguese troops, among others.

    While most missions involve training, instruction, or war games, Special Forces soldiers are also regularly involved in combat operations across America’s expansive global war zones. A month after Flintlock, for example, Green Berets accompanied local commandos on a nighttime air assault raid in Nangarhar province, Afghanistan, during which a senior ISIS operative was reportedly “eliminated.” In May, a post-deployment awards ceremony for members of the 2nd Battalion, 10th Special Forces Group, who had just returned from six months advising and assisting Afghan commandos, offeredsome indication of the kinds of missions being undertaken in that country. Those Green Berets received more than 60 decorations for valor — including 20 Bronze Star Medals and four Silver Star Medals (the third-highest military combat decoration).

    For its part, the Navy, according to Rear Admiral Tim Szymanski, chief of Naval Special Warfare Command, has about 1,000 SEALs or other personnel deployed to more than 35 countries each day. In February, Naval Special Warfare forces and soldiers from Army Special Operations Aviation Command conducted training aboard a French amphibious assault ship in the Arabian Gulf. That same month, Navy SEALs joined elite U.S. Air Force personnel in training alongside Royal Thai Naval Special Warfare operators during Cobra Gold, an annual exercise in Thailand.

    The troops from U.S. Marine Corps Forces Special Operations Command, or MARSOC, deploy primarily to the Middle East, Africa, and the Indo-Pacific regions on six-month rotations. At any time, on average, about 400 “Raiders” are engaged in missions across 18 countries.

    Air Force Special Operations Command, which fields a force of 19,500 active, reserve, and civilian personnel, conducted 78 joint-training exercises and events with partner nations in 2017, according to Lieutenant General Marshall Webb, chief of Air Force Special Operations Command. In February, for example, Air Force commandos conducted Arctic training — ski maneuvers and free-fall air operations — in Sweden, but such training missions are only part of the story. Air Force special operators were, for instance, recently deployed to aid the attempt to rescue 12 boys and their soccer coach trapped deep inside a cave in Thailand. The Air Force also has three active duty special operations wings assigned to Air Force Special Operations Command, including the 24th Special Operations Wing, a “special tactics” unit that integrates air and ground forces for “precision-strike” and personnel-recovery missions. At a change of command ceremony in March, it was noted that its personnel had conducted almost 2,900 combat missions over the last two years.

    Addition Through Subtraction

    For years, U.S. Special Operations forces have been in a state of seemingly unrestrained expansion. Nowhere has that been more evident than in Africa. In 2006, just 1% of all American commandos deployed overseas were operating on that continent. By 2016, that number had jumped above 17%. By then, there were more special operations personnel devoted to Africa — 1,700 special operators spread out across 20 countries — than anywhere else except the Middle East.

    Recently, however, the New York Times reported that a “sweeping Pentagon review” of special ops missions on that continent may soon result in drastic cuts in the number of commandos operating there. (“We do not comment on what tasks the secretary of defense or chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff may or may not have given USSOCOM,” spokesman Ken McGraw told me when I inquired about the review.) U.S. Africa Command has apparently been asked to consider what effect cutting commandos there by 25% over 18 months and 50% over three years would have on its counterterrorism missions. In the end, only about 700 elite troops — roughly the same number as were stationed in Africa in 2014 — would be left there.

    Coming on the heels of the October 2017 debacle in Niger that left those four Americans dead and apparent orders from the commander of United States Special Operations forces in Africa that its commandos “plan missions to stay out of direct combat or do not go,” a number of experts suggested that such a review signaled a reappraisal of military engagement on the continent. The proposed cuts also seemed to fit with the Pentagon’s latest national defense strategy that highlighted a coming shift from a focus on counterterrorism to the threats of near-peer competitors like Russia and China. “We will continue to prosecute the campaign against terrorists,” said Secretary of Defense James Mattis in January, “but great power competition — not terrorism — is now the primary focus of U.S. national security.”

    A wide range of analysts questioned or criticized the proposed troop reduction. Mu Xiaoming, from China’s National Defense University of the People’s Liberation Army, likened such a reduction in elite U.S. forces to the Obama administration’s drawdown of troops in Afghanistan in 2014 and noted the possibility of “terrorism making a comeback in Africa.” A former chief of U.S. commandos on the continent, Donald Bolduc, unsurprisingly echoed these same fears. “Without the presence that we have there now,” he told Voice of America, “we’re just going to increase the effectiveness of the violent extremist organizations over time and we are going to lose trust and credibility in this area and destabilize it even further.” David Meijer, a security analyst based in Amsterdam, lamented that, as Africa was growing in geostrategic importance and China is strengthening its ties there, “it’s ironic that Washington is set to reduce its already minimal engagement on the continent.”

    This is hardly a foregone conclusion, however. For years, members of SOCOM, as well as supporters in Congress, at think tanks, and elsewhere, have been loudly complaining about the soaring operations tempo for America’s elite troops and the resulting strains on them. “Most SOF units are employed to their sustainable limit,” General Thomas, the SOCOM chief, told members of Congress last spring. “Despite growing demand for SOF, we must prioritize the sourcing of these demands as we face a rapidly changing security environment.” Given how much clout SOCOM wields, such incessant gripes were certain to lead to changes in policy.

    Last year, in fact, Secretary of Defense Mattis noted that the lines between U.S. Special Operations forces and conventional troops were blurring and that the latter would likely be taking on missions previously shouldered by the commandos, particularly in Africa. “So the general purpose forces can do a lot of the kind of work that you see going on and, in fact, are now,” he said. “By and large, for example in Trans-Sahel [in northwest Africa], many of those forces down there supporting the French-led effort are not Special Forces. So we’ll continue to expand the general purpose forces where it’s appropriate. I would… anticipate more use of them.”

    Earlier this year, Owen West, the assistant secretary of defense for special operations and low-intensity conflict, referred to Mattis’s comments while telling members of the House Armed Services Committee about the “need to look at the line that separates conventional operating forces from SOF and seek to take greater advantage of the ‘common capabilities’ of our exceptional conventional forces.” He particularly highlighted the Army’s Security Force Assistance Brigades, recently created to conduct advise-and-assist missions. This spring, Oklahoma Senator James Inhofe, a senior member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, recommended that one of those units be dedicated to Africa.

    Substituting forces in this way is precisely what Iowa Senator Joni Ernst, an Iraq War veteran and member of the Armed Services Committee, has also been advocating. Late last year, in fact, her press secretary, Leigh Claffey, told TomDispatch that the senator believed “instead of such heavy reliance on Special Forces, we should also be engaging our conventional forces to take over missions when appropriate, as well as turning over operations to capable indigenous forces.” Chances are that U.S. commandos will continue carrying out their shadowy Section 127e raids alongside local forces across the African continent while leaving more conventional training and advising tasks to rank-and-file troops. In other words, the number of commandos in Africa may be cut, but the total number of American troops may not — with covert combat operations possibly continuing at the present pace.

    If anything, U.S. Special Operations forces are likely to expand, not contract, next year. SOCOM’s 2019 budget request calls for adding about 1,000 personnel to what would then be a force of 71,000. In April, at a meeting of the Senate Subcommittee on Emerging Threats and Capabilities chaired by Ernst, New Mexico Senator Martin Heinrich noted that SOCOM was on track to “grow by approximately 2,000 personnel” in the coming years. The command is also poised to make 2018 another historic year in global reach. If Washington’s special operators deploy to just 17 more countries by the end of the fiscal year, they will exceed last year’s record-breaking total.

    “USSOCOM continues to recruit, assess, and select the very best. We then train and empower our teammates to solve the most daunting national security problems,” SOCOM commander General Thomas told the House Subcommittee on Emerging Threats and Capabilities earlier this year. Why Green Berets and Navy SEALs need to solve national security problems — strategic issues that ought to be addressed by policymakers — is a question that has long gone unanswered. It may be one of the reasons why, since Green Berets “liberated” Afghanistan in 2001, the United States has been involved in combat there and, as the years have passed, a plethora of other forever-war fronts including Cameroon, Iraq, Kenya, Libya, Mauritania, Mali, Niger, the Philippines, Somalia, Syria, Tunisia, and Yemen.

    “The creativity, initiative and spirit of the people who comprise the Special Operations Force cannot be overstated. They are our greatest asset,” said Thomas. And it’s likely that such assets will grow in 2019…

  • Comey: Anyone Voting Republican This Fall Is Un-American

    Former FBI Director James Comey suggested over Twitter on Tuesday that anyone who votes Republican in the upcoming midterm elections is un-American.

    “Ambition must … counteract ambition,” wrote Comey, adding “All who believe in this country’s values must vote for Democrats this fall. Policy differences don’t matter right now. History has its eyes on us.” 

    In other words, any Republican who doesn’t vote Democrat in November doesn’t believe in American values. 

    Comey’s comments come on the heels of what some interpreted as a call for a coup against President Trump after the Helsinki summit with Vladimir Putin, when he tweeted”This was the day an American president stood on foreign soil next to a murderous lying thug and refused to back his own country,” adding “Patriots need to stand up and reject the behavior of this president.” 

    Some aren’t having Comey’s pontificating…

    Former Hillary Clinton campaign staffer Zac Petkanas – who is leading the DNC’s “war room” against President Trump, said “Dear @Comey — We don’t want you. Sincerely, The Democratic Party,” adding “He thinks it’s helpful for a witness in an obstruction of justice case against Donald Trump is out there campaigning for Democrats. STFU” 

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  • Paul Craig Roberts: "Is President Trump A Traitor Because He Wants Peace With Russia?"

    Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

    The US Democratic Party is determined to take the world to thermo-nuclear war rather than to admit that Hillary Clinton lost the presidential election fair and square. The Democratic Party was totally corrupted by the Clinton Regime, and now it is totally insane. Leaders of the Democratic Party, such as Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer, my former co-author in the New York Times, have responded in a non-Democratic way to the first step President Trump has taken to reduce the extremely dangerous tensions with Russia that the Clinton, George W. Bush, and Obama regimes created between the two superpowers.

    Yes, Russia is a superpower. Russian weapons are so superior to the junk produced by the waste-filled US military/security complex that lives high off the hog on the insouciant American taxpayer that it is questionable if the US is even a second class military power. If the insane neoconservatives, such as Max Boot, William Kristol, and the rest of the neocon scum get their way, the US, the UK, and Europe will be a radioactive ruin for thousands of years.

    House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi (CA), Minority Leader of the US House of Representatives, declared that out of fear of some undefined retribution from Putin, a dossier on Trump perhaps, the President of the United States sold out the American people to Russia because he wants to make peace: “It begs the question, what does Vladimir Putin, what do the Russians have on Donald Trump – personally, politically and financially that he should behave in such a manner?” The “such a manner” Pelosi is speaking about is making peace instead of war.

    To be clear, the Democratic Minority Leader of the US House of Representatives has accused Donald Trump of high treason against the United States. There is no outcry against this blatantly false accusation, totally devoid of evidence.

    The presstitute media instead of protesting this attempt at a coup against the President of the United States, trumpet the accusation as self-evident truth. Trump is a traitor because he wants peace with Russia.

    Here is Democratic Senator Chuck Schumer (NY) repeating Pelosi’s false accusation: “Millions of Americans will continue to wonder if the only possible explanation for this dangerous behavior is the possibility that President Putin holds damaging information over President Trump.” If you don’t believe that this is orchestrated between Pelosi and Schumer, you are stupid beyond belief.

    Here is disgraced Obama CIA director John Brennan, a leader of the fake Russiagate campaign against President Trump in order to prevent Trump from making peace with Russia and, thus, by making the world safer, threatening the massive, unjustified budget of the military/security complex: “Donald Trump’s press conference performance in Helsinki rises to and exceeds the threshold of high crimes and misdemeanors. It was nothing short of treasonous. Not only were Trump’s comments imbecilic, he is wholly in the pocket of Putin. Republican Patriots: Where are you???”

    Here are many more…

    And here is more from the CIA bought-and-paid-for BBC…

    NOTICE THAT NOT ONE WESTERN MEDIA SOURCE IS CELEBRATING AND THANKING TRUMP AND PUTIN FOR EASING THE ARTIFICAILLY CREATED TENSIONS THAT WERE LEADING TO NUCLEAR WAR. HOW CAN THIS BE? HOW CAN IT BE THAT THE WESTERN MEDIA IS SO OPPOSED TO PEACE? WHAT IS THE EXPLANATION?

    The Russians, the Chinese, the Iranians, and the North Koreans, as well as the rest of the world, desperately need to notice the extremely hostile reaction to peace on the part of the US Democratic Party, many members of the Republican Party, including the despicable US Republican Senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham, and the Western Presstitute Media, a collection of people on the CIA payroll according to the German newspaper editor, Udo Ulfkotte, and the CIA itself.

    Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, John McCain, Lindsey Graham, and the rest of the corrupt filth that rules over us are all in the pay of the military/security complex. Just go and investigate the donations to their re-election campaigns. The 1,000 billion dollar budget of the military/security complex, amplified by the CIA’s front corporations and narcotics business, provides enormous sums with which to purchase the senators and representatives that the insouciant American voters think that they elect.

    Do you know how large 1,000 billion is? You would have to live for thousands of years and do nothing for 24/7 except count to reach that figure. It is a sum that nurtures the recipients, and the recipients regard it as worth protecting.

    Therefore, the American public gets not representation, but lies that justify war and conflict. The military/security complex, about which President Eisenhower warned the American people to no effect, is in desperate need of an enemy. In obedience to the military/security complex, the Clinton, George W. Bush, and Obama regimes have made Russia that enemy. If Trump and Putin do not understand this, they will easily be made irrelevant.

    They both can be assassinated, and that is what the statements from Pelosi, Schumer, McCain, Lindsey Graham, et. al., repeated endlessly in the propaganda ministry that is the Western press, encourages. Trump can be assassinated or overthrown in a political coup for selling out America to Russia, as members of both political parties claim and as the media trumpets endlessly. Putin can be easily assassinated by the CIA operatives that the Russian government stupidly permits to operate throughout Russia in NGOs and Western/US owned media and among the Atlanticist Integrationists, Washington’s Firth Column inside Russia serving Washington’s purposes. These Russian traitors serve in Putin’s own government!

    Americans are so unaware that they have no idea of the risk that President Trump is taking by challenging the US military security complex. For example, during the last half of the 1970s I was a member of the US Senate staff. I was working together with a staffer of the US Republican Senator from California, S. I. Hayakawa, to advance understanding of a supply-side economic policy cure to the stagflation that threatened the US budget’s ability to meet its obligations. Republican Senators Hatch, Roth, and Hayakawa were trying to introduce a supply-side economic policy as a cure for the stagflation that was threatening the US economy with failure. The Democrats, who later in the Senate led the way to a supply-side policy, were, at this time, opposed (see Paul Craig Roberts, The Supply-Side Revolution, Harvard University Press, 1984). The Democrats claimed that the policy would worsen the budget deficit, the only time in those days Democrats cared about the budget deficit. The Democrats said that they would support the tax rate reductions if the Republicans would support offsetting cuts in the budget to support a balanced budget. This was a ploy to put Republicans on the spot for taking away some groups’ handouts in order “to cut tax rates for the rich.”

    The supply-side policy did not require budget cuts, but in order to demonstrate the Democrats lack of sincerety, Hayakawa’s aid and I had our senators introduce a series of budget cuts together with tax cuts that, on a static revenue basis (not counting tax revenue feedbacks from the incentives of the lower tax rates) kept the budget even, and the Democrats voted against them every time.

    When the combination of tax cuts with defense budget cuts came up for a vote, the legendary senator Strom Thurmond, a 48-year member of the US Senate from South Carolina, tapped me on the shoulder. He said: “son, never set your senator up against the military/security complex. He will not be re-elected, and you will be out of a job.” I replied that we were just establishing for the record that under no conditions would the Democrats, who wanted more government, vote for a tax rate reduction even if there was a case that it would cure stagflation. He replied: “son, the military/security complex doesn’t care.”

    My emergence from The Matrix began with Thurmond’s pat on my shoulder. It grew with my time at the Wall Street Journal when I learned that some truthful things simply could not be said. In the Treasury I experienced how those outside interests opposed to a president’s policy marshall their forces and the media that they own to block it. Later as a member of a secret presidential committee, I saw how the CIA attempted to prevent President Reagan from ending the Cold War.

    Today, right now, at this moment, we are faced with a massive effort of the military/security complex, the neoconservatives, the Democratic Party, and the presstitute media to discredit the elected President of the United States and to overthrow him in order that the utterly corrupt elite that rule American can continue to hold on to power and to protect the massive budget of the military/security complex that, along with the Israel Lobby, funds the elections of those who rule us. Trump, like Reagan, was an exception, and it is the exceptions that accumulate the ire of the corrupt leftwing, bought off with money, and the ire of the media, concentrated into small tight ownership groups indebted to those who permitted the illegal concentration of a once independent and diverse American media that once served, on occasion, as a watchdog over government. The rightwing, wrapped in the flag, dismisses all truth as “anti-American.”

    If Putin, Lavrov, the Russian government, the traitorous Russian Fifth Column – the Atlanticist Integrationists – the Chinese, the Iranians, the North Koreans think that any peace or consideration can come out of America, they are insane. Their delusions are setting themselves up for destruction. There is no institution in America, government or private, that can be trusted. Any government or person who trusts America or any Western country is stupid beyond belief.

    The entire Russiagate hoax is an orchestration by the military/security complex, led by John Brennan, Comey, and Rosenstein. The purpose is to discredit President trump for two reasons. One is to prevent any normalization of relations with Russia. The other is to remove Trump’s agenda as an alternative to the agenda of the Democratic Party.

    President Trump is almost powerless. Putin, the Chinese, the Iranians, and the North Koreans should recognize this before it is too late for them. President Trump cannot fire and arrest for high treason Mueller and Rosenstein. And Trump cannot indict Hillary for her numerous unquestionable crimes in plain view of everyone, or Comey or Brennan, who declares Trump “to be wholly in the pocket of Putin,” for trying to overthrow the elected president of the United States. Trump cannot have the Secret Service question the likes of Pelosi and Schumer and McCain and Lindsey Graham for false accusations that encourage assassination of the President of the United States.

    Trump cannot even trust the Secret Service, which accumulated evidence suggests was complicit in the assassination of President John F. Kennedy and Robert Kennedy.

    If Putin and Lavrov, so anxious to be friends of Washington, let their guards down, they are history.

    As I said above, Russiagate is an orchestratration to prevent peace between the US and Russia. Leading military/security complex experts, including the person who provided the CIA’s daily briefing of the President of the United States for many years, and the person who devised the spy program for the National Security Agency, have proven conclusively that Russiagate is a hoax designed for the purpose of preventing President Trump from normalizing relations between the US and Russia, which has the power to destroy the entirety of the Western World at will.

    Here is the report from the retired security professionals who, unlike those still in office, cannot be fired and deprived of a careet for telling the truth.

    Here is what the clued-in Russian Defense Minister Shoigu has to say about the aggressive actions of the West against the Russian homeland. If Putin doesn’t listen to him, Russia is in the trash can of history.

    Keep in mind that no media informs you better than my website. If my website goes down, you will be left in darkness. No valid information comes from the US government or the Western presstitutes. If you sit in front of the TV screen watching the Western media, you are brainwashed beyond all hope. Not even I can rescue you. Nor God himself.

    Americans, and indeed the Russians themselves, are incapable of realizing it, but there is a chance that Trump will be overthrown and a Western assault will be launched against the handful of countries that insist on sovereignty.

    I doubt that few of the Americans who elected Trump will be taken in by the anti-Trump propaganda, but they are not organized and have no armed power. The police, militarized by George W. Bush and Obama, will be set against them. The rebellions will be local and suppressed by every violation of the US Constitution by the private powers that rule Washington, as always has been the case with rebellions in America.

    In the West, which the Russians are so anxious to join, all freedoms are dead – freedom of assembly, freedom of speech, freedom of association, freedom of inquiry, freedom of privacy, freedom from arbitrary search, freedom from arbitrary arrest, along with the Constitutional protections of due process and habeas corpus. Today there are no countries less free than the United States of America.

    Why do the Russian Atlanticist Integrationists want to join an unfree Western world? Are they that brainwashed by Western Propaganda?

    If Putin listens to these deluded fools, Putin will destroy Russia.

    There is something wrong with Russian perception of Washington. Apparently the Russian elite, with the exception of Shoigu and a few others are incapable of comprehending the neoconservative drive for US world hegemony and the neoconservative determination to destroy Russia as a constraint on US unilateralism. The Russian government somehow, despite all evidence to the contrary, believes that Washington’s hegemony is negotiable.

  • Beijing Sends Strategic Bombers For "Real Combat" Practice To Massive War Games In Russia

    The People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAF) will send H-6K bombers, J-10A fighters, JH-7A fighter-bombers, IL-76 and Y-9 transport aircraft, and a team of airborne troops to Russia for the upcoming International Army Games (IAG) 2018.

    The war games, first launched by Russia in 2014, will be co-organized this year by China, Russia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Iran and Armenia from July 29 to August 11, said CGTN News. IAG 2018 will consist of 28 ‘real combat’ military competitions. China will oversee four of these war games:

    IAG 2018 will start in Russia on July 29:

    The PLAF “will send delegations to Russia, Kazakhstan, and Belarus from late July to mid-August to participate in the International Army Games 2018. And we will also host four competitions in China,” Senior Colonel Wu Qian, Director General of the Information Office of China’s Ministry of National Defense (MND), stated at the ministry’s monthly press conference on June 28.

    Senior Colonel Wu Qian, Director General of the Information Office of China’s Ministry of National Defense (MND), addresses a press conference in Beijing, China, on June 28, 2018. (Source: CGTN)

    “The PLA Army will host Suvorov Attack, Clear Sky and Safety Route in Korla of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, and the PLA Navy will host Seaborne Assault in Quanzhou City of southeast China’s Fujian Province,” Colonel Wu added.

    IAG 2018 will bring together 181 teams from 32 countries, a significant increase from last year when 150 teams from 28 countries participated. Also, there will be six new participant countries this year, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced on July 06.

    “It is a pleasure to see that the scope of competitions expand geographically and the list of participants grow,” Shoigu told Russia’s TASS news agency.

    “Military servicemen from Algeria, Vietnam, Myanmar, Pakistan, Sudan and the Philippines will demonstrate their skill for the first time,” Shoigu said.

    “The Games begin in one month’s time from now. During this period everything must be done to create the maximum comfortable conditions not only for participants, but also for many devotees of army sports,” he added.

    According to Xinhua News, it will be the first time that H-6K bombers and Y-9 transport aircraft have gone abroad to take part in military games, a spokesperson for the PLAF said at a recent press conference.

    A PLA airforce Y-9 transport aircraft is seen during a training module in preparation for the International Army Games on July 9, 2018. The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) air force will send H-6K bombers, J-10A fighters, JH-7A fighter-bombers, IL-76 and Y-9 transport aircrafts, and a team of airborne troops to Russia to participate in the International Army Games 2018. It will be the first time that H-6K bombers and Y-9 transport aircraft have gone abroad to take part in military competitions. (Source: Xinhua/Yang Pan)

    Two PLA airforce JH-7A fighter-bombers are seen during a training module in preparation for the International Army Games on July 12, 2018. (Source: Xinhua/Yang Pan)

    A PLA airforce IL-76 transport aircraft is seen during a training module in preparation for the International Army Games on July 12, 2018. (Source: Xinhua/Yang Pan)

    A PLA airforce J-10A fighter is seen during a training module in preparation for the International Army Games on July 11, 2018. (Source: Xinhua/Yang Pan)

    A PLA airforce H-6K bomber is seen during a training module in preparation for the International Army Games on July 12, 2018. (Source: Xinhua/Yang Pan)

    The war games come at a time when tensions between Beijing and Washington are elevated. Earlier this month, two US destroyers, the USS Mustin and the USS Benfold, passed through the Taiwan Strait in what China considers to be a significant violation of its One China Policy, which recognizes Taiwan as part of China.

    Increasing relations between Taipei and Washington had stressed Beijing, especially in March, when President Trump signed the Taiwan Travel Act, paving the way for reciprocal visits between US and Taipei officials. Further, Washington greenlighted sales to Taiwan of its submarine technology, which severely angered China. There are also reports that Taipei wants M1A2 Abrams tanks, to serve as a coastal line of defense should China invade.

    For some time, Washington has been using the “freedom of navigation”  in the South China Sea, to sail its warships and conduct aerial patrols with strategic nuclear bombers near the disputed islands. Beijing has responded by constructing artificial islands and deploying military infrastructure on the Paracels, as well as on the Spratly Islands. In May, we reported that China landed the H-6K strategic bomber for the first time on Woody Island, the country’s largest military base in the South China Sea.

    As China and Russia prepare for massive war games next week, it is becoming increasingly obvious that a handful of countries in the Eastern Hemisphere are preparing for the inevitable war with Washington.

  • New Fissure Near Yellowstone Supervolcano Causes Teton National Park Closure

    Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

    A 100-foot-long fissure near the Yellowstone supervolcano has prompted the closure of parts of Teton National Park. Coupled with the Steamboat geyser’s newly active status, fears of an eruption at the Yellowstone caldera are increasing.

    Teton National Park has issued a statement regarding the newly opened up fissure, according to WoodTV. 

    “The Hidden Falls and Inspiration Point areas are currently closed due to elevated potential for rockfall. The area was closed to protect human safety on July 10 after expanding cracks in a rock buttress were detected.  It is unknown how long the closure will be in effect. Geologists are monitoring the buttress for movement and have initiated a risk assessment for the area.”

    Although scientists continue to tell the public the possibility of a major eruption is incredibly small, they also believe it’s worth the effort to constantly monitor the area. 

    Hidden Falls and Inspiration Point are both closed and both are located in the popular Jenny Lake area. They are among the park’s busiest attractions. Other Jenny Lake attractions, including the ferry, remain open.  There is no estimate on when these locations could reopen.

    “We’re really going to need a few more days of data to make a solid determination if the rock is still moving,” park spokesman Andrew White said Friday according to Strange Sounds. Following data collection, park rangers will conduct a “risk assessment” to determine if the area can be reopened, he said.

    The huge fissure on the buttress above Hidden Falls was discovered by Exum Mountain Guides on July 9  while training guided climbers for Teton ascents. By the next morning the gap had widened, so the closure followed citing a potentially dangerous “rockfall.” But a report from July 3 stated that Yellowstone’s magma chamber is “more powerful” than scientists had previously known.

    Using a new way to track heat flow under the park, researchers now estimate Yellowstone’s magma chamber could be recharging from deep within the Earth twice as fast as previously thought. But there’s still no cause for alarm, even though all this news comes as the largest geyser in Yellowstone, the Steamboat geyser, becomes more active. It has now erupted for the eleventh time.

  • "Things Are Getting Real" – Companies Are Reporting The Impact Of Tariffs On Their Business

    While President Trump’s latest round of tariffs has only just taken effect, and his earlier tariffs on steel and aluminum weren’t widely imposed on American allies until May, American companies, or foreign firms’ US-based subsidiaries, are already complaining about the negative impact that tariffs are expected to have. And as the White House mulls over whether to slap 10% tariffs on another $200 billion of Chinese imports, the situation is finally “getting real.” Companies have warned for months that the tariffs would hurt economic growth, but to try and get a handle on the “real-world impact”of these policies, Bloomberg is compiling a list of companies that have either mentioned the tariffs during their earnings calls, or have released some other tariff-based announcement.

    Trade

    Though tariffs will have an impact on big and small US companies, Bloomberg is focusing on only the biggest publicly-traded firms. As Bloomberg points out, while Trump says he wants to protect American jobs, General Motors says his threat to tax imports of auto parts could force GM to cut its workforce in the US. Meanwhile, higher US tariffs on steel have prompted Germany’s Kloeckner & Co. to raise its earnings forecast because prices have risen so much.

    Here’s a roundup of the headlines, with link. Only two of the references – Kloeckner’s and Ryerson’s – have been positive.

    * * *

    Procter & Gamble: Cites ‘meaningful’ impact of tariffs on a handful of products in Canada, which accounts for 3% of global sales

    Kloeckner: Steel trader raises earnings forecast on higher U.S. prices

    General Motors: Could be forced to cut U.S. jobs if tariffs are applied to imported vehicles and auto parts.

    Volvo Cars: Owner Li Shufu says cars will cost more as trade wars escalate

    Ryerson: Metal processor’s sales guidance exceeds estimates in part because of higher anticipated demand from inventory dislocations tied to tariffs

    Osram: Trade tensions will weaken sales of automotive lighting parts

    Brown-Forman: Raised Jack Daniel’s prices in light of EU tariffs

    Harley-Davidson: Plans to move production overseas, sees EU tariff costs of $100 million annually

    Daimler: Cut profit forecast on U.S.-China trade fight

    Tyson Foods: ‘Day-to-day uncertainty’ in delivering products and services

    MillerCoors: Brewer says profit could fall by $40 million depending on how much aluminum prices rise

    * * *

    While the second-quarter earnings season is only just getting started, we imagine companies will have much more to say in 90 days when the third quarter ends, and the pre-tariff “doomsday-prepping” growth boom that economists have been warning about finally materializes. Still, as we pointed out earlier, concerns about trade, real or expected, are still far behind currency-related concerns.

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