Feb 01

Today’s News 1st February 2022

  • The Globalist Reset Agenda Has Failed – Is Ukraine Plan B?
    The Globalist Reset Agenda Has Failed – Is Ukraine Plan B?

    Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

    There are people in the liberty movement that attribute FAR too much intelligence to the global power elites, to the point that they seem to think the globalists are always planning “ten steps ahead.” The funny thing about planning ten steps ahead though is that if anything goes wrong with steps 1-9 then getting to step number 10 will be impossible and you just wasted a whole lot of energy on an elaborate plan that ended up going nowhere. The globalists are NOT the smartest people around; not even close. They aren’t even all that effective when their plans actually function and there are no surprises. Their ideas fail constantly.

    There is only one reason that centralizing criminals have not been brought down, and that is because no one has ever targeted them directly. Every time there is a governmental shake up or rebellion or mass movement for change people target “the system”; they blame the system for all our problems (or they blame a handful of political puppets) and they seek to add a fresh coat of paint or change some of its basic functions, but the men behind the curtain always end up back behind the curtain. The problem is never “the system”, it’s the people running and influencing the system while enjoying the comfort of the shadows.

    Here is how the globalists seem to operate the best that I can tell – They aim a fist full of darts at a board and throw as hard as they can and whatever sticks is what sticks. When a plan does stick, well the globalists appear to be brilliant, don’t they? In reality they were just throwing around schemes blindfolded and half of those schemes landed in the gutter. The problem is that while the globalists are fumbling around in the dark searching for a plan that works they can do a lot of damage and draw a lot of attention.

    Every once in a while it becomes obvious when they have invested an immense amount of time and planning into a single unique scheme, a fulcrum point that many of their other plans will rely on in the future. There is no doubt that the response to the covid outbreak was meant to bulldoze over numerous social and legal conventions and achieve full bore centralization before the vast majority of people even knew what hit them.

    The pure excitement and adrenaline on display by the globalists at the onset of the pandemic was palpable. They were practically dancing in the streets, jabbering about how many worldwide socialist programs they were about to railroad through, not to mention how many individual liberties they were about to erase.

    That said, when a plan doesn’t stick the way they want, sometimes they try to force it to work and this never goes well for them. We’ve seen this multiple times with their attempts to institute gun control in the US and they have failed over and over again. More recently, the covid agenda and by extension the globalist “Reset” has fallen apart in the US and this has led to problems for them in other parts of the world.

    American resistance to the vax mandates and lockdowns was key to everything, more so than I think many people realize. Even if the globalists could implement medical tyranny through much of the rest of the world, with conservative red states blocking the agenda at every turn this created a focal point for resistance. Meaning, all the people in the world can still see that there is another way to do things that does not involve authoritarianism. Life in the red states goes on as if covid barely existed. Conservatives are not “dying in the streets” like the lunatic liberals said would happen. In fact, millions of people have been LEAVING blue states and coming to red states just to be free.

    When you offer people alternatives, you offer them a glimpse of freedom, and sometimes a glimpse is all that is needed to inspire rebellion.

    I believe that it was red state resistance that led directly to the Supreme Court blocking Biden’s illegal and unconstitutional vaccine mandates. If the red states had not take such an aggressive stand, the whole country might be under Biden’s thumb right now as he hands out dictates from on high, or, we would be at war. I also don’t think it’s a coincidence that the UK government decided to remove all covid mandates right after the US Supreme Court dropped restrictions in the US. When freedom is visible it spreads.

    It’s hard for western governments to explain to their people why they should be enslaved over the covid virus when so many other people across the ocean live their lives normally in the face of the same illness. This doesn’t mean that some of the worst offenders will not try to maintain their wretched grip on their populations. It would seem that the Australian government has been lost to globalist tyranny forever, but they still will not be able to deny the reality that conservative Americans are free. There will always be a chance for revolt within Australia exactly because we are living proof that covid mandates do not need to exist.

    Since the very beginning of the covid pandemic I have argued that the virus itself was a lab engineered bioweapon, most likely created in the bowels of the Level 4 facilities in Wuhan right down the street from what is widely recognized as ground zero. I have also argued from the very beginning that evidence shows that the NIH and Anthony Fauci have been involved in the funding of manipulation of coronaviruses at the Wuhan Lab for many years. Meaning, there has been collusion between western elitists and Chinese scientists to weaponize covid through gain of function research. This is now exposed as FACT.

    What I don’t know for certain is if the virus was released deliberately, or accidentally. What I can say, though, is that the globalists at the World Economic Forum and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation held a “simulation” of a global coronavirus pandemic only two months before the real thing happened. The simulation, called “Event 201”, seemed to predict almost everything that would eventually happen with the real coronavirus outbreak that started in China, right down to news companies and social media giants locking down all information that didn’t fit the narrative. There was just one problem – The virus wasn’t as deadly as they had hoped.

    Event 201 predicted 65 million initial deaths worldwide and the WHO predicted a much higher infection fatality rate of 3% of the population or more. This never happened. The globalists and the media have been scrambling for the past couple years to convince the public that the death rate of covid is much higher higher than it is, but the fact remains that dozens of studies show covid’s average IFR is a mere 0.27%.

    It’s not going to change for the worse, it is only going to decline as covid continues to mutate into less deadly forms of itself.

    Why did this happen?

    It’s impossible to say. Maybe the virus performed differently in the lab but then changed dramatically once it was let out into the wild? That would be my guess. Maybe it was divine intervention? For whatever reason, the globalists invested an intense amount of energy into the covid virus and it let them down, and now they are stuck trying to create mass panic over a nothing-burger.

    So, what happens next?

    It makes sense that they will need a distraction as a means to redirect momentum, and the globalists will do what they always do, which is create war tensions. This does not mean that large scale war is the intended outcome, but limited regional wars that could grow into something more are always on the table. It is not a mistake that the US could potentially be caught up in not one but two major regional conflicts at this time, including a Chinese invasion of Taiwan as well as a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

    For now, Ukraine is the most hyped. We have seen such spill over with Ukraine many times in the past and it’s hard to say if this is yet another false start or if a full blown Russian attack is going to happen. With constant US influence, funding and arming being pursued in the region I suppose getting the Russians to invade would not be that hard. I’m not really interested in trying to read the dice on this one. My only interest in Ukraine is in how it might benefit the overall globalist agenda.

    • First, the economic instability that has been growing exponentially the past couple years will now hit overdrive. Inflation, gas prices, the supply chain, all the threats that are already looming over us will expand tenfold with two nuclear powers at odds. Even if Ukraine saber rattling was to choke out into nothing just the existence of the danger is enough to inspire widespread economic fear.

    • Second, the pandemic issue can be cast to the wayside with little fanfare. The globalists know its going nowhere for them but they need a way to exit without explaining the numerous lies they have peddled in the past two years. War is a way to wipe the slate clean on the news cycle.

    • Third, heightened tensions with Russia open the door to a different form of paranoia at home. How many times have we heard media claims of “Russian influence” on US elections? There is ZERO proof of this, but the narrative has already been planted among leftists. It would not surprise me in the slightest if US elections were “postponed” or the outcomes ignored because of unverified claims of Russian “interference.” What better way to prevent a complete conservative sweep in the US than to simply stop the elections altogether?

    • Fourth, by extension, it is only a matter of time before a conservative rebellion arises in the US to unseat the globalists from power. It is already happening in may forms today, for those who are paying attention. The most common way for corrupt governments to undermine a rebellion for freedom is to accuse it of being an astroturf revolution created by a foreign enemy. That is to say, the corrupt government seeks to take away the heart and soul of the rebellion by claiming they aren’t fighting for freedom, they are only fighting in exchange for money or power from a foreign nation. Their reason for fighting is “fake.”

    We saw this with the Chinese CCP when they brutally took over Hong Kong. We also saw this in Kazakhstan when the people rioted in the streets over price inflation and Russian troops were sent in to quell what was called a “foreign created color revolution.” Nothing could have been further from the truth.

    Make no mistake, when the fighting starts in the US, our rebellion will not be called a fight for freedom. We will be accused as “Russian agents”, traitors, insurrectionists, etc, etc.

    They’ll say we’re fighting to support foreign governments, not to bring liberty and sanity back to our society. We’ll be the villains; it’s important to understand this and not be bogged down by 4th generation warfare. It is for this reason primarily that conflict with Russia makes a lot of sense for the globalists. Perhaps not on the scale of a global war, but enough to keep their prospective populations in line. Whether or not this plan succeeds is another matter entirely. As already mentioned, these people fail regularly.

    *  *  *

    If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch.  Learn more about it HERE.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/31/2022 – 23:40

  • Ivermectin Has 'Antiviral Effect' Against Omicron And All Other 'Mutant Strains' Of Covid-19
    Ivermectin Has ‘Antiviral Effect’ Against Omicron And All Other ‘Mutant Strains’ Of Covid-19

    A Japanese pharmaceutical company, Kowa Co, said on Monday that the drug ivermectin has an “antiviral effect” against Omicron and other Covid-19 variants.

    The finding was made with Tokyo’s Kitasato University on a joint non-clinical research project, which has been testing the drug as a potential treatment for the disease, according to Reuters.

    Kowa says that ivermectin showed the “same antiviral effect” on all “mutant strains,” including Alpha, Delta and Omicron. The company also noted that ivermectin suppresses invasion of the virus and inhibits its replication.

    “[Ivermectin] is expected to be applied as a therapeutic drug (tablet) for all new coronavirus infectious diseases,” reads the report.

    Of note, Reuters changed their original headline from “effective” against Omicron to having an “antiviral effect,” and corrected a statement that the finding occurred during “Phase III clinical trials.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Ivermectin is at the heart of an ongoing ‘medical misinformation’ campaign surrounding podcaster Joe Rogan and several expert guests who have advocated for the use of the anti-parasitic drug as an early treatment option for Covid-19 patients. Rogan himself used ivermectin as part of a cocktail of treatments when he contracted Covid-19.

    Controversy over free speech erupted last week after singers Neil Young and Joni Mitchell demanded that Spotify remove their music catalog unless Rogan was silenced.

    Rogan responded to the drama on in a Monday Instagram video, in which he said he only seeks to have conversations on his podcast with people who have “differing opinions,” and that he isn’t “trying to promote misinformation.”

    He noted that he’s booked experts from all sides, including CNN‘s chief medical correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta, Dr. Michael Osterholm, who is a member of President Joe Biden’s COVID-19 advisory board, and Dr. Peter Hotez from Baylor College of Medicine.

    Rogan also pointed out that many previously-verboten Covid claims have turned out to be true.

     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     

    A post shared by Joe Rogan (@joerogan)

    According to ivmmeta.com, Ivermectin showed an average 64% improvement as an early treatment, a 39% improvement as a late treatment and an 83% improvement as a prophylaxis, across 77 studies.

    As The Epoch Times notes;

    Ivermectin has been used by the World Health Organization for over 30 years to treat parasitic infections. Volunteers have distributed the drug in African countries where it has been found to be extremely effective, said the Kowa report.

    However, the treatment has been mired in controversy during recent times as the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has not approved the use of ivermectin as a treatment for COVID-19, even though the drug is used in humans to treat a variety of conditions.

    The FDA has refused to respond to a Freedom of Information Act request (FOIA) asking for details about any reports of side effects related to the use of ivermectin in treating COVID-19 while publicly denouncing its usage.

    The federal government pays hospitals across the country to treat COVID-19 patients, but the payment is tied to approved methods, and ivermectin is not part of the protocol.

    However, families desperate to save their loved ones are resorting to secretly sneaking the drug into hospitals as a last-ditch effort that often ends up helping the infected person recover.

    All or part of 22 countries around the globe have approved the use of ivermectin in the treatment of COVID-19, based on multiple studies. Japan has not yet approved ivermectin for the treatment of COVID-19.

    A bill has been presented to make New Hampshire the first state in the country to make ivermectin part of the approved COVID-19 treatments and offer it as an over-the-counter medication.

    //www.instagram.com/embed.js

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/31/2022 – 23:20

  • CCP May Collect Top American Athletes’ DNA At Beijing Olympics, Experts Say
    CCP May Collect Top American Athletes’ DNA At Beijing Olympics, Experts Say

    Authored by Dorothy Li and Joshua Philipp via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Sealed from the rest of Beijing in a “closed-loop” bubble, over 200 American athletes are receiving daily COVID screening for the Winter Olympics. But some experts worry that U.S. Olympians’ DNA might be collected by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

    Arena workers prepare the venue for hockey games at the National Indoor Stadium leading up to the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympic Games in Beijing, China, on Jan. 29, 2022. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)

    Patricia Adams, executive director of Canada-based non-profit Probe International, said “it’s a very likely possibility” that the CCP will be collecting top-performing athletes’ DNA at the Games.

    “They [CCP] are doing the testing every day … and [there’s] absolutely no oversight over the use of the products that they’re getting,” Adams said during a Jan. 26 webinar on EpochTV’s “Unmasking Communist China” program.

    In the online event, Stephen Yates, chief executive of consultancy firm DC International Advisory, spoke of the threat posed by the Chinese regime’s mass collection of personal information and health data. U.S. officials and experts have previously sounded the alarm that Beijing is amassing a large database that includes Americans’ personal and health information, which could be used to enhance artificial intelligence systems and fields of medicine, as well as assist in espionage and military operations.

    The danger, Yates said, lies in the CCP using the mass data set for unethical purposes.

    “China has weaponized artificial intelligence and a lot of other studies of the human process in ways that civilized countries wouldn’t even allow, so we don’t have any way to really know what this dark window of the future might be,” he said.

    According to Yates, CCP may use the massive data set to give their athletes a competitive advantage or increase opportunities for psychological warfare.

    The Winter Olympics is set to open in Beijing on Feb 4. The diplomatic boycotts announced by the United States and a spate of other countries, which is meant to hold the communist regime accountable for its human rights violations in Xinjiang, don’t keep athletes from competing at the Games.

    The U.S. athletes arrived in Beijing on the evening of Jan. 28, and were sent straight to hotels situated in a closed-loop system surrounded by wire fences. Everyone in the bubble can only leave via special vehicles, and staff in full protective suits carry out mouth swabs on them every day.

    A security guard stands guard at a hotel parking in Beijing on January 29, 2022. (KIRILL KUDRYAVTSEV/AFP via Getty Images)

    In the online event, Adams suggested that the CCP may “get rid of an American who’s the likely winner of the gold” through what she described as “nefarious means using false positive COVID test.”

    Beijing’s Olympic organizers on Jan. 29 denied reports that they may potentially manipulate COVID test results, saying that the tests are up to international standards, according to state media China Daily.

    Adams said that “at the end of the day, it’s all being done by the Chinese government, and nobody really knows what’s going to happen to the data.”

    She noted the problem is “nobody trusts the Chinese government.”

    “The Chinese government has demonstrated to the world over and over and over again that they don’t follow rules. They follow their own rules. They don’t follow international rules. They don’t follow treaties that they’ve signed.”

    The CCP’s known record of cyber espionage has led several countries, including the United States, UK, and Canada to tell their athletes to bring a burner phone for the Games. Cyber security experts warned that Beijing 2022, a compulsory health app for the Games, may spy on users through encryption flaws.

    “I think that athletes are very, very nervous. And they’re not happy,” said Adams.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/31/2022 – 23:00

  • Russian Navy Holds Anti-Submarine Drills Near NATO Country, Prepares For More
    Russian Navy Holds Anti-Submarine Drills Near NATO Country, Prepares For More

    On Monday in New York top diplomats traded accusations in a rare United Nations National Security Council debate over the Russia-Ukraine crisis. The US and its allies, particularly Britain, have also raised the sanctions pressure – now threatening hard hitting punitive measures on Putin’s “inner circle” – as well as targeting banks and energy companies in the event of a Ukraine offensive. 

    Simultaneously, Russia’s Northern Fleet conduced anti-submarine drills in the Norwegian Sea, not far from NATO member Norway, at a moment of broader and rival naval movements in places like the Black Sea. 

    Russia’s Northern Fleet, file image

    Russia’s military described the northern drills as involving ships “hunting down a notional enemy’s submarine using sonars and data from military pilots,” according to TASS news agency.

    “As part of the drills with the Arctic expeditionary task force, a group of the Northern Fleet’s combat ships and support vessels practiced anti-submarine assignments in the Norwegian Sea,” the defense ministry described. 

    “The crews of the missile cruiser Marshal Ustinov and the frigate Fleet Admiral Kasatonov hunted down the notional enemy’s submarines with the help of an anti-submarine warfare helicopter,” the military press office added.

    The exercise involved a Russian missile cruiser, a frigate, and helicopters – and is said to be one of many drills happening across all fleets from the Atlantic to Pacific Oceans, and in the Mediterranean. 

    At a moment the West is closely monitoring Russian military movements related to the Ukraine border build-up, TASS writes, “Overall, the sweeping drills will bring together over 140 warships and support vessels, more than 60 aircraft, 1,000 items of military hardware and about 10,000 troops.”

    In the past days there have even been Russian naval drills happening off Ireland’s coast, which have been source of major controversy, given it’s a ‘live fire’ exercise initially staged within the Republic of Ireland’s Exclusive Economic Zone. After a government protest to Russia, Irish Foreign Affairs Minister Simon Coveney over the weekend issued an update to say the exercises would be “relocated outside of Ireland’s EEZ”.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/31/2022 – 22:40

  • Hedge Fund Trade That Blew Up The Repo Market Is Making A Comeback
    Hedge Fund Trade That Blew Up The Repo Market Is Making A Comeback

    A popular hedge fund trade – known as the Treasury Basis Trade which, reminiscent of what LTCM did back in the day seeks to profit from minuscule differences between prices in the futures and cash markets for Treasuries by using massive amounts of borrowed money – is set to make a comeback as the Federal Reserve plots to shrink its footprint in the U.S. Treasury market, even though it nearly blew up the financial world in late 2019.

    The strategy, which as we explained in detail most recently here, involves taking leveraged positions in Treasury notes and bonds in order to exploit price differences with the corresponding futures contracts, backfired both in Sept 2019 (leading to the repo market crisis which ushered in the Fed’s “NOT QE” phase of reserve replenishment) as well as the March 2020 liquidity crisis, when the normal relationships between cash and futures broke down completely.

    Since then, the Fed’s relentless and gigantic buying of Treasury notes and bonds had stripped the volatility out of the cash-futures relationship, while also bidding up the value of the older Treasuries normally used in basis trades, effectively eliminating any monetizable arb in the basis trade.

    But that is changing, and with the Fed set to end QE by March (until the next crisis that is) and to start QT later this year, arbitrage opportunities are set to return, Citigroup strategists Raghav Datla and Jason Williams said in a note late Friday, according to Bloomberg.

    The policy shift “should remove the dampening effect that Fed purchases had on the futures net-basis” and yield relationships between older and new Treasuries, they wrote. Also, financing rates for Treasuries should rise “and drive more dislocations in cash/futures markets.”

    In short: the trade that prompted the Fed to step in in 2019 and 2020 and bail out countless hedge funds (as we explained in “The Fed Was Suddenly Facing Multiple LTCMs”: An Explanation Of What Really Happened On Repocalypse Day“), is about to come back with a vengeance precisely because the Fed is about to step away and allow markets to return to normal.

    Sure enough, as shown in the chart below, since the start of the year, the yield differential between the newest 10-year note maturing in November 2031 and the second-newest, maturing three months earlier in August 2031, has shrunk. The older note’s yield is lower, but by a smaller margin than previously. That trend should continue as the increased supply of Treasuries in private hands leads to higher financing rates, the Citi strategists said.

    As for the futures basis, it remains depressed for now despite strong investor demand for Treasury futures. The latest weekly CFTC data showed asset managers were net long almost 1.5 million five-year note contracts, near the highest level of the past two years. Expect this to change as well in coming weeks as the Fed’s footprints in the bond market fade leaving the bond market to crash at its leisure now that the buyer of first resort has stepped away if only until the next market crash.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/31/2022 – 22:20

  • Goldman Slashes 2022 GDP Forecast Again, Warns Of "Sharp Deceleration" In Growth"
    Goldman Slashes 2022 GDP Forecast Again, Warns Of “Sharp Deceleration” In Growth”

    Two months after we warned that the Fed is hiking into a recession, The downgrades of the US economy are now coming in fast and furious.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    One day after Goldman raised its Fed funds forecast from 4 to 5 rate hikes in 2022, the bank did what it had done on at least 4 previous occasions in the past 3 months: it cut its US GDP forecast for both Q1 and the full year, perhaps prompted by a similar action by JPMorgan on Friday as well as the Atlanta Fed which as a reminder now sees the US economy “growing” at just 0.1% in the first quarter.

    Of course, this should not come as a surprise: Goldman’s economics team has been atrocious in its forecasts over the past year (similar to the “inflation is transitory” Fed), not just when it comes to inflation, where the bank increased its year-end 2021 CPI forecast by 0.4% every single month starting in April of last year…

    … but also when it comes to being overly optimistic about the state of the US economy, to wit:

    You get the picture. It was in one of these multiple GDP cuts where we said that while it remains to be seen just how positive the impact from reopenings will be “one area where we disagree profoundly with Goldman is the bank’s generous modeling of an upside boost to growth from “pent-up savings” which the bank expects to offset a substantial portion of the fiscal hit… The excess savings – in as much as they still exist – mostly benefit the top 1%, with the bulk of the population benefiting from only 30% of the total accumulated amount. As such the contribution to consumption from excess savings will end up being far smaller than most Wall Street strategists predict (since the propensity of the top 1% to spend their savings which are instead invested in the market, is far less than the broader population). The result: expect even more aggressive cuts to GDP growth in coming quarters – from both Goldman and its peers – even as inflation continues to rise, cementing a painful period of non-transitory stagflation for the US as the mid-term elections approach.”

    Just a few weeks later, our bearish take was once again validated to the detriment of Goldman’s predictive acumen, when today the Vampire Squid admitted that it had greatly overestimated the spending capacity of the US households – that key driver behind 70% of US GDP – when in a note from Goldman’s econ team, the bank wrote that after last week’s GDP report which saw the US economy grow at the fastest annual pace since the 1980s, “growth is likely to slow abruptly in 2022, as fiscal support fades and, in the near-term, virus spread weighs on services spending and prolongs supply chain disruption.”

    Specifically, the bank slashed its Q1 GDP forecast from 2.0% to just 0.5%, and while the bank fudged the other quarters modestly higher, it lowered its 2022 annual average GDP forecast by 0.2% to +3.2% (vs. +3.8% consensus) while warning that “the annual average masks the sharp deceleration in growth from 2021 into 2022, which is better captured by the 2022 Q4/Q4 rate, which we now expect will be +2.2% (previously +2.4%).”

    And while Goldman has yet to admit that the significant contribution to GDP from “pent up savings” will prove to be the latest fiasco by one of the country’s most respected economist teams, it had conceded that growth in 2022 will be fast slower due to three key reasons: i) the lack of extended stimmies, in this case the expiration of child tax credits; ii) drop in service spending due to the Omicron panic and iii) continued supply-chain disruptions of domestic production, which will weigh on inventory accumulation and exports in Q1.

    Some more details on these three factors:

    • 1. Fiscal Impulse slowing: Goldman calculates that fiscal support boosted real disposable income to 5% above the pre-pandemic trend on average in 2021, but following the lapse of the expanded child tax credit this month, disposable income has likely dipped below trend and will remain an average of 1% below the pre-pandemic trend in2022—even after penciling in strong gains in labor income. As Goldman’s Jan Hatzius writes, “this decline should weigh on consumer spending—and is a large part of why we expect growth to slow to only slightly above potential by the end of the year—but the impact should be cushioned by spending of excess savings built up during the pandemic that still total nearly $2½ tn.“

    • 2. Omicron hit to service spending. Goldman writes that Q1 growth is likely to be particularly soft because the fiscal drag will be accompanied by a hit from Omicron: “High frequency data indicate that spending on virus-sensitive services has declined sharply since early December, and overall real services spending declined by 0.6% in January.” The good news is that the rebound from Omicron is expected to be quick, and the bank estimates that consumption will grow at a modest 1.5% annualized pace in Q1.

    3. Continued supply-chain disruptions. Virus spread has also hit the supply side of the economy, according to Goldman which notes that “worker absenteeism appears to have peaked at 3.5% of the adult population in early January, and renewed foreign virus restrictions will likely prolong supply chain disruptions and interrupt domestic production. This is likely to weigh on inventory accumulation and exports in Q1.”

    The lack of continued inventory restocking will also hit Q1 GDP, as we said after last week’s GDP report. According to Goldman’s estimate, Q1 will see +$65bn (annualized) in inventory growth (vs. +$173bn in Q4), which would subtract 2% from Q1 GDP growth. This reflects an expected drawdown in auto inventories based on production schedules and recent company commentary. The bank also assumes moderately slower growth in broader manufacturing and trade inventories, in part because Omicron has already caused a disruptive wave of worker absenteeism in the US and threatens to be more disruptive abroad, especially in China.

    Putting it all together, Goldman writes that it “lowered our Q1 GDP forecast by 1.5pp to +0.5% (qoq)—mainly reflecting our expectation for a large negative contribution from the inventories component of GDP—and we have nudged up our Q2 forecast by ½pp to +3.5%, which will benefit from the post-Omicron rebound. We have raised Q3 slightly to +3% (from +2.75%) and left Q4 unchanged (at +2.0%), which lowers our 2022 annual average GDP forecast by 0.2pp to +3.2% (vs. +3.8% consensus). However, the annual average masks the sharp deceleration in growth from 2021 into 2022, which is better captured by the 2022 Q4/Q4 rate, which we now expect will be +2.2% (previously +2.4%).”

    Ironically, despite this admission that all of its previous rosy growth forecasts were wrong, and that the US is facing a “sharp deceleration” in growth, the bank raised its forecast for the total number of Fed rate hikes in 2022 to 5. Needless to say, something will give – either the US economy will have to grow much faster, or the Fed will have to capitulate in a few months and pivot dovishly away from its aggressive tightening path which will send the US into recession, something which the bond market is already saying is virtually certainly.

    And since the US economy will not find some deus ex engine for faster growth, the Fed is facing two stark choices as Morgan Stanley explained yesterday: a recession or years of very high inflation.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/31/2022 – 22:00

  • ATF Admits To Secret Database Of "Nearly One Billion Gun Records"
    ATF Admits To Secret Database Of “Nearly One Billion Gun Records”

    Submitted by The Machine Gun Nest (TMGN).,

    What always proceeds gun confiscation historically? A Registry.

    A Registry of guns and gun owners is a tool that the federal government, the DOJ, and the ATF have had on their wish list for decades now. Anti-gun politicians and lobbyists have sold a registry as a tool for stopping crime, enforcing universal background checks, and ensuring public safety.

    In reality, a Registry guarantees that large-scale confiscation will happen at some point. That’s why the ATF is forbidden explicitly from keeping a searchable database by law.

    Today, Gun Owners of America announced that the ATF has nearly 1 Billion records of firearm purchases, with over 850 million of those records in digital format. These records contain all sorts of personal information on gun owners in addition to the gun they’ve purchased. Important personal information, including their names, addresses, place of birth, sometimes even social security numbers, can all be found on these records.

    The firearm transaction records that the ATF is referring to is the ATF Form 4473. Federal law currently states that a firearms dealer can destroy 4473 forms after 20 years. If a firearms dealer goes out of business or closes before those 20 years, federal law says dealers must hand over those forms to the ATF.

    ATF Form 4473

    So the ATF currently is in possession of nearly 1 Billion of these records. Here’s the direct quote attributed to the ATF from GOA: “In total, ATF manages 920,664,765 OBR as of November 2021. This includes digital and an estimated number of hard copy records that are awaiting image conversion. It is currently estimated that 865,787,086 of those records are in a digitalized format.”

    So over 850 million of those records are in digital format, making them easier to search. GOA claims this constitutes a “partially complete database of guns and gun owners.”

    So how does the ATF justify this massive privacy invasion of gun owners? They claim that “the vast majority of criminal firearms traces are done for state and local law enforcement agencies pertaining to active investigations.” But interestingly, in true Federal Government style, they also mention that they have no idea how effective this system is and if any of the information leads to the successful prosecution of gun crimes. 

    This lack of information is especially interesting considering that the Biden DOJ wants to change the regulation on firearms dealers so that they can never destroy gun transaction records. It should be exceedingly obvious that their goal is, of course, a complete registry of all firearms in the United States. What we are witnessing are small steps towards that goal. 

    We here at TMGN have been warning people about this change back in 2020 when the ATF changed form 4473 to include both firearm & personal information on the front page. I felt that the only reason for this change was data collection and the ease of digitizing a paper form, but now it’s exceedingly evident that theory was correct. 

    This is why it is crucial for gun owners to get involved and make sure they’re calling their members of Congress, getting out and making their voices heard, or even donating to a group that will fight on their behalf. If we don’t push back on these infringements, the ATF will track gun owners down the road and move to confiscate our firearms.

    This database is especially worrying with the current situation with the ATF classifying Rare Breed Firearms’ Forced Reset Triggers as machine guns and working to confiscate them from dealers and citizens alike. 

    Keep in mind that with the push to regulate semi-automatic firearms as machine guns, a registry would be a handy tool for confiscation. When you consider that confiscation of firearms is the end goal, it’s no wonder the ATF is pushing so hard to keep a database of gun owners.

    We explain more about today’s startling developments here: 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/31/2022 – 21:40

  • Colorado State Snowflakes Melt Down Over 'Free Speech' Events, Offered Trauma Counseling
    Colorado State Snowflakes Melt Down Over ‘Free Speech’ Events, Offered Trauma Counseling

    Students at Colorado State University who have been traumatized by free speech events held on campus now have 17 different counseling resources to help them cope.

    The future of America, ladies and gentlemen…

    “If you (or someone you know) are affected by a free speech event on campus, here are some resources,” reads a sign posted to Instagram by Turning Point USA Rockies.

    As Campus Reform notes, the university’s sign points to 17 departments that can help students who have been “affected.”

    Departments and programs were also designated for minority students, including Student Diversity Program centers for Asian Pacific, Black/African, and Native Americans. Service and Cultural resources provided spaces for LGBTQ+ students, students with disabilities, and included the Women and Gender Advocacy Center.

    The Rockies account called out the school for “intolerance,” noting, “And we haven’t even had an event yet gotta love the intolerance of @coloradostateuniversity.”

    Colorado State University has consistently been a hostile environment for conservative organizations, particularly in the fall 2021 semester. -Campus Reform

    CSU seems to have no problem with left-wing students harassing conservative students, however.

     

     Read more here.

    //www.instagram.com/embed.js

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/31/2022 – 21:20

  • Protesters Gather In Front Of Australian Parliament In Solidarity With Ottawa Truck Convoy
    Protesters Gather In Front Of Australian Parliament In Solidarity With Ottawa Truck Convoy

    Submitted by Daniel Teng of The Epoch Times

    Hundreds of protestors have gathered in front of Australia’s Parliament House in solidarity with the massive Convoy to Ottawa that converged on the Canadian capital around the weekend of Jan. 29.

    Calls for a similar movement have been echoing Down Under for days, and on Jan. 31, a crowd organised under a “Convoy to Canberra” campaign gathered in front of the national legislature, according to videos circulating on social media.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The crowd can be heard chanting, “What do you want? Freedom! When do we want it? Now!” One individual addressed the crowd saying they had “every right to be here peacefully.”

    “They have told us that they have passed the message on that we demand that a representative of this Parliament comes out and addresses the people of Australia and our demands,” he said in a video circulating online.

    Social media has been awash with footage of drivers making their way to the Australian capital. The grassroots movement has begun gathering steam as a four-day-old GoFundMe campaign already garnered AU$167,539 in donations, as of Jan. 31.

    According to the ABC, the funds have been frozen by the website until details are provided regarding how the organiser will disperse them.

    A similar issue occurred with the Canadian protest when GoFundMe froze access to CA$4.5 million in funds. Those funds have since been released.

    U.S. truckers are now planning their own version of the protest from California to Washington D.C.

    The movement, which has seen thousands to tens of thousands of truckers mobilise, is in response to ongoing vaccine mandates and harsh government-mandated restrictions.

    In Australia, mandates have been widely enforced across the country with largely bipartisan support politically and from the business and medical community; it has, however, remained a contentious issue.

    On Jan. 22, protests broke out across Australia’s major capital cities with government-mandated restrictions.

    Vaccine developer Nikolai Petrovsky has criticised the mixed government messaging on the benefits of the jab, saying it only protects individuals and does not stop transmission of the virus—undermining the reasoning for mandates.

    “Every individual should be making decisions about their own health, and it is completely inappropriate to demonise or suggest someone who’s unvaccinated is in any way different to anyone else,” the lead researcher behind Spikogen told The Epoch Times.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/31/2022 – 21:00

  • Inflation Comes For Your Closet: Cotton Prices Hit Decade High Amid Global Deficit
    Inflation Comes For Your Closet: Cotton Prices Hit Decade High Amid Global Deficit

    The global fashion industry is on the rebound as BMO Capital boosted Under Armour’s rating to Outperform from Sector Perform. Fashion retailers breathe a sigh of relief as demand picks up but comes at a high price for consumers. 

    This year, about two-thirds of fashion executives expect to increase costs due to snarled supply chains. Average prices are expected to rise about 3% across all clothing and apparel, according to the State of Fashion 2022 report by the Business of Fashion and McKinsey & Co.

    About 15% of respondents said clothing and apparel prices could jump by more than 10%. 

    Inflation in fashion hasn’t just been due to transportation bottlenecks and rising shipping costs but also rocketing commodity prices. Bloomberg reports cotton futures have soared to a decade high on Monday due to a “global deficit of the fiber squeezing mills holding huge short positions.” 

    March cotton futures in New York rose as much as 2% to $1.26 per pound, the highest since June 2011. Prices are up for the seventh straight quarter, the longest streak since 1959. 

    “Supply disruptions and soaring costs pushed the industry to draw on stockpiles, which have practically vanished at ICE Futures U.S., with higher prices unable to lure supplies into the exchange-tracked warehouses,” Bloomberg said. 

    High prices for the fiber indicate inflation is coming to shirts, blue jeans, dresses, sweats, and so much more. 

    Demand for cotton worldwide “is simply not being met,” said O.A. Cleveland, a consultant and professor emeritus at Mississippi State University. 

    “Industry group Cotlook on Friday shifted its global outlook for 2021-22 back to a deficit, the second shortfall in a row, citing diminished production in top exporter U.S. and India. More plantings in the coming season have been put into question by soaring costs for crop inputs including fertilizer,” Bloomberg continued. 

    Cleveland said the cotton dynamics are “extremely bullish,” and the “last time I recalled such a situation, I stopped forecasting futures prices once the market reached $1.50 a pound. Will the May or July futures price ascend to such a level? I do not know. This is a no man’s land.”

    It’s still unclear how consumers will act when their favorite clothing brand prices continue to rise. But since clothes are considered discretionary spending, there will be a point where consumers will buy fewer of them due to higher prices. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/31/2022 – 20:40

  • COVID Is In The "Rearview" Because Politicians "Can't Win Votes Locking You In A Cage": George Gammon
    COVID Is In The “Rearview” Because Politicians “Can’t Win Votes Locking You In A Cage”: George Gammon

    Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance 

    A couple days ago, my kind friend George Gammon from Rebel Capitalist took the time to answer a couple of exclusive Fringe Finance questions for me. George is one of my favorite economic commentators and has been a friend of mine, and my podcast, for years. I often describe his podcast as similar to mine, just more well thought out, more educational and more useful with less childish humor.

    I thought this week would be a good time to tap into George’s head, given that the last time I spoke to George was well before the current market volatility. George prepared two, twenty minute-long exclusive videos for Fringe Finance to try and tackle a list of questions I had for him. 

    I reviewed George’s first video in this writeup for Zero Hedge, where he talked about everything from volatility in markets, to gold, to the Fed. 

    On Being Censored By YouTube

    In his second video George talks about one of his channel’s bans from YouTube: “Rebel Capitalist did get taken down by YouTube about two months ago. I actually wasn’t that surprised. I looked, couldn’t find it and got an email from YouTube saying they had taken down my account without any strikes or warnings.”

    “I went on Twitter and mentioned the YouTube email and got overwhelming support,” George says. Then, after Joe Rogan re-tweeted George’s tweet, his account mysteriously wound up back on YouTube. 

    “Maybe four hours later, Joe Rogan re-tweeted me. Then it went completely viral. About 2 hours later I got an email from YouTube saying ‘Whoops! Sorry! Our mistake! We reinstated your channel!'”

    It’s encouraging to see competition from other social media platforms, George says. “If they continue this draconian censorship around free speech, maybe YouTube will go the way of Myspace,” George says. 

    On Who He Follows During Market Volatility 

    George also explains who he listens to when the market is volatile: “Lyn Alden, I’m always paying attention to what she’s doing. She’s got a very very special talent, even compared to other people who are incredibly intelligent. I think Lyn is the best out there, personally. But I’m always listening to Jeff Snyder, and then I try to look at what’s happening in the stock market through the lens of people I talk to.”

    “I try to listen to the old school guys – Chanos, Druckenmiller, Jim Rogers, Marc Faber – and kind of those old school type of guys. Gundlach, too.”

    “My base case is at the end of 2022, I think we’ll be between 90 and 100 on the DXY,” George adds when asked about whether or not the dollar would crash this year. 

    On The Future Of Covid And The Stock Market

    “I think especially in the red states, Covid is going to be in the rearview mirror by the summer, maybe even by the spring,” George says. “It is possible we have another variant, but it’s unlikely, because another variant would have to be more transmissible. We’ll probably be stuck with omicron for quite some time.”

    He continues: “Is it priced into the market? I think it is. I think Covid is still going to be a thing in other countries and some of the blue states. The tell will be what countries are still under the influence of the World Economic Forum and the global elite.”

    “I’ve seen a pivot in the mainstream media,” George says. “Politicians know they can’t run and win on a platform of locking you in a cage and vaccine passports and making your kids inject a foreign substance into their body. That’s not a winning platform and I think the politicians are starting to realize that. Then they call the media and say ‘hey, you need to do a 180′”. 

    In George’s second video, he also talks about:

    • How lesser known content creators get screwed because they don’t have a following

    • The free market’s response to censorship

    • How he has learned the global monetary system by educating others

    • Thoughts on Covid variants and natural immunity

    • Why countries closest to the World Economic Forum will likely perpetuate the Covid narrative more than others

    • Why he doesn’t think the big crash for the dollar is coming in 2022

    You can watch Parts 1 and 2 of George’s full video response here. 

    Now read:

    1. Millionaire Book-Writer And Professional Board-Sitter Chelsea Clinton Attacks Substack Authors As “Grifters”

    2. Spotify Has Officially Become The Battleground For Big Tech’s Censorship Civil War

    3. Waking Up And Derailing The Great Reset

    4. Inflation Is The Kryptonite That Will End Our Decades-Long Monetary Policy Ponzi Scheme

    5. Rogan 2024

    6. For Robinhood, Firing Vlad Tenev Is The First Step To Redemption

    7. Why Mainstream Media Is “Being Swallowed” By Joe Rogan: Interview

    DISCLAIMER: 

    All content is George Gammon’s opinion. I own physical silver, GLD, GDX, GDXJ, PAAS, PSLV and a number of other metals/miners/gold/silver equities as well as numerous companies with exposure to oil and uranium. Readers should assume George also has positions in all trends/equities/etc. mentioned in this interview – as do I. We will likely stand to benefit if prices of commodities rise and/or our prognostications come true. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. It is only a look into personal opinions and personal portfolios. Positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I get shit wrong a lot. I’m not a financial advisor, I hold no licenses or registrations and am not qualified to give advice on anything, let alone finance or medicine. Talk to your doctor, talk to your financial advisor or your therapist. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/31/2022 – 20:20

  • Pregnant Reporter Forced To Stay In Kabul After Home Country Of New Zealand Denies Her Entry Due To COVID Protocols
    Pregnant Reporter Forced To Stay In Kabul After Home Country Of New Zealand Denies Her Entry Due To COVID Protocols

    Pregnant 35 year old reporter Charlotte Bellis is not being allowed to return home from Afghanistan to her home country of New Zealand because of the archipelago’s strict Covid-19 protocols. 

    She had been covering “the difficult conditions mothers and babies face” in the country, and has now herself been forced to take up shelter in Kabul, according to AP. She is 25 weeks pregnant and has been vaccinated three times. 

    She was working as an Afghanistan correspondent for Al Jazeera, where she resigned in November because it is based in Qatar, where “it is illegal to be pregnant and unmarried in Qatar”.

    She then went o Belgium to try and get residency, but the length of time it would have taken her to get in would have left her visa to expire. She then returned to her partner, who is a freelance photographer that has lived in Afghanistan for two years, figuring she could fight to get home using Kabul as a “home base”. 

    She had considered hopping from country to country on tourist visas until she had her baby, but couldn’t spend on the jet-setting and hotels that would be necessary. She says she is giving herself until she is 30 weeks pregnant to try and engineer a solution from Kabul.

     “I am giving myself to the end of February,” she said. “She will still have more than a month left on her Belgium visa so that she can re-enter the country” at that time, AP reported. 

    Photo: The Guardian

    “Each day is a battle,” she told AP this weekend. “This is ridiculous. It is my legal right to go to New Zealand, where I have health care, where I have family. All my support is there.”

    After she wrote about her plight to return home, New Zealand’s COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins reportedly asked officials if they had followed protocol in her case and found that her situation appeared to “warrant further explanation.”

    She has a lawyer than has submitted over 60 documents to New Zealand’s government to try and get her home, but they have been rejected twice.

    On Sunday, she received a response from the New Zealand government telling her that her pregnancy didn’t meet the criteria of “threshold of critical time threat.”

    “If I don’t meet the threshold as a pregnant woman then who does?” she concluded. 

    Interestingly enough, she said she was welcomed back to Kabul by the Taliban. She checked with them to make sure it was okay for her to come back despite the fact that she was pregnant and unmarried.

    “I appreciate this isn’t official Taliban policy, but they were very generous and kind. They said ‘you are safe here, congratulations we welcome you’,” she told AP. 

     

     

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/31/2022 – 20:00

  • American Mom, School Teacher Was ISIS Batallion Leader, Prosecutors Allege
    American Mom, School Teacher Was ISIS Batallion Leader, Prosecutors Allege

    Authored by Alice Giordano via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The U.S. Department of Justice is seen in Washington, on June 11, 2021. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

    Federal authorities arrested a former Kansas school teacher and mother of five and charged her with plotting terrorist attacks on American soil, including a shopping mall and a college campus.

    Allison Elizabeth Fluke-Ekren, 42, was apprehended in Syria late Thursday, according to a U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) press release.

    Fluke-Ekren began her stint as a terrorist shortly after leaving the U.S. in 2008, according to the DOJ. In a statement released Friday on Fluke-Ekren’s arrest and extradition back to the U.S., the DOJ detailed her intense involvement with the ISIS terrorist group over the course of three years.

    Fluke-Ekren allegedly served as a leader of an all-women military battalion of ISIS known as Khatiba Nusayba.

    Six eyewitnesses gave detailed accounts to U.S. federal agents of Fluke-Ekren’s alleged terrorist activity starting in 2016, which was about eight years after she moved to the Middle East. One of the witnesses described Fluke-Ehren’s alleged plot to park a vehicle full of explosives in the basement or parking garage level at a U.S. shopping mall and detonate the explosives in the vehicle using a cell phone with a triggering device.

    One witness said that the former Kansas school teacher fantasized about large-scale attacks and only considered a location a good one for the attack “if it contained large amounts of congregating people.”

    According to another eyewitness account, Fluke-Ekren said she considered any attack that did not kill a large number of individuals to be a waste of resources and campaigned for attacks to occur on American soil.

    Fluke-Ekren’s battalion, which included young children, was trained in the handling of AK-47s, grenades, and improvised explosive devices. They were also taught how to prep a “go bag” with rifles and other military supplies.

    The DOJ also had information that members of the all-women ISIS group often expressed they were especially proud to have an American leading them.

    Under the blog entitled 4kansaskids.blogspot.com, Fluke-Ekren wrote about family exploits in the Middle East before joining ISIS. There are several pictures of her, her first husband, and her children riding camels. Posts dating back to Christmas day in 2008 by friends include well wishings and hugs to the kids.

    “Everyone asks about you here in Wichita and KC,” wrote one friend. “Take care and I hope to read much, much more about your adventures!!!!”

    Fluke-Ekren replied back stating “Please give everyone in both places my best regards and salaams.”

    Several new posts now appear on her blog with a very different tone. One person wrote just yesterday “When you were planning to put a bomb under a shopping mall, did you think of the kids that would be murdered? Kids like your kids?”

    The blog posts predate the birth of her fifth child, who is believed, based on information from the DOJ, to be around 13. Her other children would be young adults.

    Terrorism appears to have become a family affair, replacing camel-riding activity with toting AK-47s. According to one witness in the federal complaint, one of Fluke-Ekren’s children, estimated to be about 5 or 6 years old, was seen outside the family home in Syria toting one of the gas-fueled assault weapons. Fluke-Ekren’s American husband died in 2016 while leading ISIS snipers in an airstrike. She remarried a Bangladeshi described as a prominent ISIS leader.

    According to the federal complaint against her, the ISIS battalion led by the American mom included children about the age of her children seen in pictures on her blog.

    Under federal sentencing guidelines, if convicted, the maximum prison sentence faced by Fluke-Ekren is 20 years.

    Her arraignment is scheduled for Monday afternoon at the federal courthouse in Eastern District of Virginia federal courthouse in Alexandria. Under federal sentencing guidelines, if convicted, the maximum prison sentence faced by Fluke-Ekren is 20 years.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/31/2022 – 19:40

  • Shareholders Sue McDonald's For Allowing Ex-CEO To Keep $40 Million Severance Package
    Shareholders Sue McDonald’s For Allowing Ex-CEO To Keep $40 Million Severance Package

    McDonald’s institutional shareholders have McF**king had it with generous payouts to executives forced out over improper conduct.

    More than two years since firing CEO Steve Easterbrook over an inappropriate relationship he had with a subordinate, McDonald’s is now facing a lawsuit from a group of shareholders – including at least one major union pension funds – who believe Easterbrook should reimburse the company for the legal fees it spent trying to oust him.

    Easterbrook was fired in 2019 after four years in the top job where he won praise for innovations like all-day breakfast and other initiatives that supposedly bolstered sales.

    A trio of pension funds tied to the Teamsters’ union said in a court filing released Friday that McDonald’s should have demanded reimbursement for the millions of dollars in legal fee that it was forced to pay during its battle with Easterbrook. Instead, the company allowed him to walk out the door with almost $40 million.

    According to Bloomberg, disgruntled shareholders are also criticizing Micky D’s chairman Rick Hernandez and other board members over allegedly misleading the board about the extent of Easterbrook’s deceptions.

    For example, Hernandez and other members of the board were criticized for paying Easterbrook severance after he allegedly misled them about the nature and duration of his allegedly “inappropriate” relationship with a subordinated.

    Here’s more on what shareholders had to say:

    Board members weren’t acting in the best interest of shareholders by keeping “secret such salacious misconduct and paying Easterbrook a lavish severance package to quietly leave the company,” the investors said in the court filing.

    The McDonald’s board will fight the request, its lawyer said Monday. “Plaintiffs’ allegations do not support a derivative claim, and the board will move to dismiss the case,” Ron Olson said in an emailed statement.

    Court papers show McDonald’s accused the former CEO of lying about his sexual liaisons with underlings and sending dozens of sexually explicit pictures of women using his company email.

    The company originally sought to recoup his severance package, which it valued at $37 million, but eventually caved, as Easterbrook and his legal team fought back.

    At this point, even if the shareholders win in their suit against McDonald’s, the money won’t come from Easterbrook, but from McDonald’s insurance coverage.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/31/2022 – 19:20

  • Democrats Finally Reach Out To Manchin, Is It Too Late?
    Democrats Finally Reach Out To Manchin, Is It Too Late?

    Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

    Control of Build Back Better was always in Senator Joe Manchin’s hands. Stewing Progressives finally admit that. But what’s next?

    Ball in Manchin’s Court

    The Wall Street Journal reports Democrats Put Build Back Better in Joe Manchin’s Court, emphasis mine.

    Democrats are increasingly willing to accept whatever child-care, healthcare and climate package that Sen. Joe Manchin (D., W.Va.) would support as they return to Washington this week, hoping to salvage elements of the party’s economic agenda after months of failed negotiations.

    Party lawmakers have started to change their attitude toward the package as they grapple with the possibility of failing to convert their narrow control of Congress into progress on major party goals. Some have moved away from insisting that the package include particular priorities, instead advocating for the party to notch a result with Mr. Manchin ahead of the midterm elections.

    “Democrats can’t let our disappointment get in the way of progress on something we’ve worked hard to achieve,” said Rep. Peter Welch (D., Vt.), who is running for Senate. Many Democrats are eager to start piecing together legislation after Mr. Manchin’s rejection of the House-passed Build Back Better bill put talks on ice for weeks. In a West Virginia broadcast interview, Mr. Manchin said talks had restarted on the bill, adding that he was primarily focused on a separate effort on bipartisan elections legislation.

    “There’s a lot of conversations going on, they’ve been reaching out. We haven’t sat down physically and started any negotiations,” Mr. Manchin said on Thursday. “I think taking care of our voting and protecting our right to vote and protecting the ballot box is the most important, urgent thing we have right now.”

    Reasons Time May Have Passed   

    1. Senator Bernie Sanders is calling for up or down votes on every idea. “The current direction that we have followed for the past five months has failed. We’ve got to move in a new direction,” Mr. Sanders said.

    2. Senator Manchin has other priorities, especially voting.

    3. The House Progressive Caucus will be loathe to accept some of Manchin’s requirements. 

    4. Another potential government shutdown is in the works. The 2021 settlement extended government funding through February 18. That will be the top priority for the next two weeks. 

    5. Biden pledged to nominate a black woman to the Supreme Court but has of yet selected anyone. The Senate confirmation hearings will  take a while. 

    6. Some Democrats still insist on removing the $10,000 cap on the state and local tax deductions and the expanded child tax credit. A group of Senate Democrats wrote a letter to Mr. Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris last week calling on them to continue an expansion of the child tax credit in the legislation.

    2022 Congressional Calendar

    2022 Congressional calendar from Rational360.Com

    Deal Still Possible 

    Whatever gets done will likely have to get done by the end of July. 

    In August and October the House is not in session although Speaker Nancy Pelosi could call them back. 

    There is still time, but the best shots are March, May, June, and July. There is too much other business in February. 

    Bipartisan Group Targets Election Reform

    Please note Senators Seek Changes to Electoral Count Act to Firm Up Presidential Elections

    Republicans in recent weeks have started talking about making changes to the Electoral Count Act in an effort to stop a repeat of what happened following the 2020 election. Then-President Donald Trump, a Republican, had urged then-Vice President Mike Pence to reject the Electoral College votes from some states, which he declined to do. That same day, the Capitol was overrun by a pro-Trump mob seeking to stop the certification of the election victory of President Biden, a Democrat.

    Sen. Susan Collins (R., Maine), who is leading the bipartisan effort, said Thursday she was encouraged by the interest from colleagues from both parties in overhauling the law. Sen. Susan Collins (R., Maine), who is leading the bipartisan effort, said Thursday she was encouraged by the interest from colleagues from both parties in overhauling the law.

    Overturning the Next Election

    If the concern is stealing the Presidency, then fix the Electoral Count Act said the WSJ in Overturning the Next Election on January 4, 2022.

    The anniversary of the Jan. 6 Capitol riot is Washington’s theme of the week, and waves of righteous anger will roll across the Mall. We agree the riot was disgraceful, but then why not rewrite the law that encouraged Donald Trump’s supporters to think Congress could overturn the 2020 election?

    We’re referring to the Electoral Count Act, the ambiguous 19th-century statute that purports to allow for a majority of Congress to disqualify a state’s electors after the Electoral College has voted. Congress’s certification of presidential election results should be a technicality, but Mr. Trump misled supporters into believing Vice President Mike Pence and Congress could overturn Joe Biden’s victory, leading to the Jan. 6 march on the Capitol.

    The effort wasn’t close to succeeding, with only eight Senators objecting to the results in any states, though 139 Republicans did in the House. No Senators voted to object to enough states to deprive President Biden of the 270 electoral votes he needed to win. Presiding over the Senate, Mr. Pence properly understood his limited constitutional role and resisted Mr. Trump’s pressure to intervene. He was one of the heroes of that day.

    Still, Jan. 6 was the most significant abuse of the law to date and part of a growing trend. A smaller number of congressional Democrats used the Electoral Count Act to object to both of George W. Bush’s victories as well as Donald Trump’s in 2016.

    The Electoral Count Act was an attempt to avoid the mess that followed the contested 1876 Hayes-Tilden election, but its ambiguous language has made it open to abuse. In these polarized times, both parties could use the law in the future as an excuse to attempt to overturn an election in the House and Senate.

    Congress shouldn’t have even the appearance of this power. The Framers didn’t want the executive branch beholden to Congress, which is why they designed an Electoral College to elect the President. They gave state legislatures the power to certify electoral votes, as they do according to the popular vote count in each state. Though the Electoral Count Act has never been tested in court, in our view it is unconstitutional.

    That’s what needs to be fixed, but what Progressives demand is far removed. 

    And it’s unclear what Manchin is actually referring to when he says “I think taking care of our voting and protecting our right to vote and protecting the ballot box is the most important, urgent thing we have right now.”

    Fixing the Voting Rights Act should be a simple process. But somehow these things never are.

    Look for Elizabeth Warren and the Senate Progressives to possibly demand more than Senators Manchin and Krysten Sinema are willing to go along with. 

    This could be done in a week, or two months. 

    Meanwhile, Senator Sanders wants to try something new. The House is torn on the environment, on child care, and on on removing the $10,000 cap on the state and local tax deductions.

    Has Time Realistically Expired?

    If the bickering and demands continue, yes it has. Will Democrats salvage something?

    This is what it comes down to.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    I still think “something” is likely, but depending on what that something is, I’d rather see nothing.

    *  *  *

    Please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/31/2022 – 19:00

  • Buttigieg To Usher In Speed Camera Nightmare Across US
    Buttigieg To Usher In Speed Camera Nightmare Across US

    The U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg’s plan to roll out a sprawling network of speed and surveillance cameras across America’s highways raises troubling questions of mass surveillance, according to DailyMail. 

    Buttigieg’s 42-page plan to improve highway safety will receive a whopping $17 billion from President Biden’s $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill, which would be used to install speed and surveillance cameras on highways. The plan says the use of automated speed cameras is a more “equitable” way to patrol highways than the police. 

    Last Thursday, Buttigieg told the Associated Press that an alarming amount of highways deaths began after 2020, reversing a three-decade downtrend. 

    “It doesn’t look good, and I continue to be extremely concerned about the trend,” he said in an interview.

    “Somehow it has become over the years and decades as normal, sort of the cost of doing business,” Buttigieg continued. “Even though a pandemic that led to considerably less driving, we continue to see more danger on our roads.”

    Speed cameras have drawn immense criticism from progressive lawmakers, who are furious that speeding fines will help fund police departments. On the other side of the political aisle, conservatives are troubled by mass surveillance. 

    At the moment, eight states have prohibited speed cameras. But 18 states plus D.C. operate speed cameras, with other states having no laws authorizing their use.

    The DailyMail spoke with New Jersey State Sen. Declan O’Scanlon, who is concerned about Buttigieg’s plan. He said speed cameras in New Jersey are illegal and said automated enforcement doesn’t make roads safer and “amounts to government-sanctioned theft.”

    “These systems’ negative impact falls particularly hard on the poor,” O’Scanlon added. “The fines are a regressive tax. Any elected official that supports these systems is supporting screwing every one of his/her constituents that drives a car.”

    Early last year, the ACLU of Iowa said the speeding cameras are an illusion of enhancing safety and have made some highways more dangerous. 

    “In some places, for example, traffic cameras have led to an increase in rear-end accidents because they cause drivers to slam on the brakes to avoid an automatically generated ticket,” ACLU said. 

    Besides speed and surveillance cameras, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, a part of the Transportation Department, intends to make automatic emergency braking mandatory for all new cars. 

    Buttigieg’s strategy is direct evidence that the government plans to scale up their surveillance network, and what’s to stop them from using facial recognition systems? 

    Under the guise of safety, a Chinese-style surveillance state continues to expand. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/31/2022 – 18:40

  • Peak Irony? University Puts Trigger-Warning On George Orwell's '1984'
    Peak Irony? University Puts Trigger-Warning On George Orwell’s ‘1984’

    Authored by Jennifer Kabbany via The College Fix,

    In an Orwellian turn of events, the University of Northampton has put a trigger warning on George Orwell’s dystopian novel “1984,” citing “explicit material” that some students may find “offensive and upsetting,” the Daily Mail reports.

    The Mail verified the existence of the trigger warning through a freedom of information request filed with the UK campus.

    “There’s a certain irony that students are now being issued trigger warnings before reading Nineteen Eighty-Four,” Tory MP Andrew Bridgen told the Mail.

     “Our university campuses are fast becoming dystopian Big Brother zones where Newspeak is practised to diminish the range of intellectual thought and cancel speakers who don’t conform to it.”

    The novel “1984” was published in 1949 “as a warning against totalitarianism,” according to Britannica.

    “The chilling dystopia made a deep impression on readers, and [Orwell’s] ideas entered mainstream culture in a way achieved by very few books.”

    “The book’s title and many of its concepts, such as Big Brother and the Thought Police, are instantly recognized and understood, often as bywords for modern social and political abuses.”

    A university spokesman said told the Mail that while “it is not university policy, we may warn students of content in relation to violence, sexual violence, domestic abuse and suicide. In these circumstances we explain to applicants as part of the recruitment process that their course will include some challenging texts.”

    In addition to “1984” getting a trigger warning at the University of Northampton, the UK-based Salford University has put trigger warnings on Charlotte Bronte’s “Jane Eyre” and Charles Dickens’s “Great Expectations,” which are marked as “distressing,” the Daily Mail reports:

    The warnings accompany a reading list given to students on Salford’s BA English literature course, and have been revealed in response to a Freedom of Information request.

    The university warns undergraduates: “There are scenes and discussions of violence and sexual violence in several of the primary texts studied on this module. Some students may find the content of the following texts distressing.”

    Not to be outdone, students in America recently took trigger warnings to a whole new level.

    The student-staffed Prevention, Advocacy and Resource Center at Brandeis University last year listed the term “trigger warning” itself as “oppressive” and among those the campus community should avoid.

    “The word ‘trigger’ has connections to guns for many people,” the center’s website stated. “We can give the same heads-up using language less connected to violence.”

    And in 2020, Baylor University put up a trigger warning for a swath of American flags planted in the grass as a Sept. 11 memorial.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/31/2022 – 18:20

  • Biden To Designate Qatar A Major Non-NATO Ally Amid Efforts To Blunt Putin's 'Energy Weapon'
    Biden To Designate Qatar A Major Non-NATO Ally Amid Efforts To Blunt Putin’s ‘Energy Weapon’

    On Monday we learn that “North Atlantic Treaty Organization” will extend to include formally designated “major” allies all the way in the Persian Gulf…

    “US President Joe Biden said on Monday he plans to designate Qatar as a major non-Nato ally, granting a special status to the Middle East partner,” the UAE-based The National reports. The announcement was made while Biden hosted Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani in the Oval Office. Biden stressed he’s soon to notify Congress of the designation “to reflect the importance of our relationship.” The State Department says the designation “provides foreign partners with certain benefits in the areas of defense trade and security cooperation.”

    AFP/Getty Images: Biden shakes hands with the emir of Qatar in the Oval Office on Monday.

    Crucially this special relationship was solidified in recent years, it should be recalled, during the Syrian proxy war in which intelligence services from both countries teamed up in an attempt to overthrow the Assad government. Qatar even hosted US training camps in the desert for fanatical jihadists “secular freedom fighters”. 

    And the tiny oil and gas rich monarchy had for years been widely accused of seeking to destabilize Syria while eyeing energy transit opportunities, as Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. wrote in a 2016 lengthy Politico piece: 

    While the compliant American press parrots the narrative that our military support for the Syrian insurgency is purely humanitarian, many Arabs see the present crisis as just another proxy war over pipelines and geopolitics. Before rushing deeper into the conflagration, it would be wise for us to consider the abundant facts supporting that perspective.

    In their view, our war against Bashar Assad did not begin with the peaceful civil protests of the Arab Spring in 2011. Instead it began in 2000, when Qatar proposed to construct a $10 billion, 1,500 kilometer pipeline through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria and Turkey.

    It should also be recalled that Qatar was among the first Arab gulf states to essentially confess that it supported al-Qaeda during the height of the Syria conflict. 

    We detailed in our 2017 analysis of a rare “confession” by Qatar’s former top intelligence official…

    In an interview with Qatari TV Wednesday, bin Jaber al-Thani revealed that his country, alongside Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the United States, began shipping weapons to jihadists from the very moment events “first started” (in 2011).

    Al-Thani even likened the covert operation to “hunting prey” – the prey being President Assad and his supporters – “prey” which he admits got away (as Assad is still in power; he used a Gulf Arabic dialect word, “al-sayda”, which implies hunting animals or prey for sport). Though Thani denied credible allegations of support for ISIS, the former prime minister’s words implied direct Gulf and US support for al-Qaeda in Syria (al-Nusra Front) from the earliest years of the war, and even said Qatar has “full documents” and records proving that the war was planned to effect regime change.

    In large part al-Thani was at the time seeking to throw the Saudis under the bus for spearheading the whole sordid Syrian regime change saga on behalf of the Gulf Cooperation Council (during the years of the GCC schism and Saudi-Qatar diplomatic war).

    More than this, Hillary’s emails would confirm the gulf allies funded and supported the rise of ISIS.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    So congrats to Joe Biden’s newest declared major non-Nato ally of Qatar, with a confirmed history of supporting ISIS, al-Qaeda, and other terrorists across the region… (though to be fair the same can be said of NATO member Turkey and the US itself)…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The Pentagon is optimistic about the opportunities presented with deeper security ties: “It opens up a whole new range of opportunities — essential relationships — not just with the United States bilaterally but with other allies,” spokesman John Kirby said Monday about Qatar’s impending status.

    But Syria and so-called ‘Arab Spring’ conflicts aside, the new geopolitical standoff which appears to be driving the Biden administration’s deepening energy and security relationship with Qatar is seen in the following:

    Now, with about 100,000 Russian troops massed at the Ukraine border, experts say Qatar — the world’s second-biggest exporter of liquefied natural gas, or LNG — is eager to help Mr Biden again but might only be able to offer limited assistance if Russia further disrupts the flow of energy supplies to Europe.

    Qatar is already producing at full capacity, with much of its supply under contract to Asia. Even if some Pacific allies of the US — including India, Japan and South Korea — are persuaded to divert some contracted LNG orders to Europe, it will only slightly soften the blow, energy analysts say.

    The initiative appears part of broader attempts of team Biden to reach out to countries and energy firms in the Middle East, Asia, and Africa as the administration preps potential far-reaching sanctions against Moscow in the event of an offensive against Ukraine. 

    The expectation is that Putin would use Russia’s ‘energy weapon’ and leverage over Europe – simply he’d “turn off the gas” – as a natural response to any hard-hitting Western sanctions. Washington is now scrambling to put in place plans to mitigate the inevitable extreme natural gas supply crunch that would result, hoping countries like Qatar could be part of contingency plans for assisting Europe in such a nightmare scenario.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/31/2022 – 18:00

  • Cartels Have Operational Control Of US Border, Are "Terrorizing" The US, Says Rep. Chip Roy
    Cartels Have Operational Control Of US Border, Are “Terrorizing” The US, Says Rep. Chip Roy

    Submitted by Charlotte Cuthbertson and Steve Lance of The Epoch Times

    Mexican cartels are making billions of dollars from drug trafficking, human smuggling, and exploiting the U.S. border, said Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas).

    Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) speaks at a news conference at the U.S. Capitol in Washington on September 22, 2021.

    Border Patrol agents apprehended more than 1.3 million illegal immigrants crossing into Texas from Mexico in 2021. Hundreds of thousands more weren’t captured. Seizures of the deadly synthetic opioid, fentanyl, have sharply increased, as have overdose deaths in the United States.

    “We have 100,000 Americans die from opioid poisonings. They’re not really overdoses—they’re poisonings,” Roy told NTD’s Capitol Report on Jan. 28.

    “China is moving it through Mexico, cartels are making money, China is getting empowered, America’s getting hammered—all because this administration refuses to do its job of securing the border.”

    The chemicals to make fentanyl are produced in China and shipped to Mexico, where counterfeit pills are manufactured, heroin is spiked, and other products are laced before being sent across the southern border.

    U.S. Customs and Border Protection reported a 1,066 percent increase in fentanyl seized at south Texas ports of entry during fiscal year 2021.

    Heroin and fentanyl pressed into pill form. (DEA)

    The cartels, which fight over the lucrative territory that abuts the United States, have expanded their reach, profits, and power through a massive increase in human smuggling and trafficking over the past year.

    They often send large groups through in one area of the border to tie up Border Patrol resources, which leaves nearby areas unpatrolled and open for illicit transport, said Rodney Scott, former U.S. Border Patrol Chief.

    “They simply overwhelm agents with those massive numbers, and that creates other areas where there’s no law enforcement at all,” Scott told Capitol Report on Dec. 16.

    “That’s where they’re bringing the narcotics, the criminal aliens, the people that want to avoid arrest, for whatever reason, and they’re just pouring across at will. This is a crisis and it is real.”

    Border Patrol agents apprehend and transport illegal immigrants who have just crossed the river into La Joya, Texas, on Nov. 17, 2021.

    Illegal immigrants have to pay a cartel to cross into the United States, and the amount varies on the country of origin and the destination in the United States. Often, the illegal immigrant doesn’t have the money and will enter the United States indebted to the cartel.

    “These are human beings. They are put into the labor or sex trafficking trade and they’re basically held as slaves to enrich the worst elements of our society—cartels, but also just illegal illicit organizations that are perfectly happy to use the cartel network to get the people that they’re going to abuse. It’s absolutely horrific,” Roy said.

    “One boy thought he was paying $4,000 to go pick grapes in California. Instead he was going to be held for ransom in a stash house in Houston.”

    Recently, eight illegal immigrants were discovered in a vehicle in Boerne, Texas, just north of San Antonio.

    “The driver of the car was an American citizen employee of one of those cartels, moving those eight people—two of whom were bound in the trunk—heading to a stash house in Houston,” Roy said.

    “How is the most powerful nation in the history of the world allowing our borders to be operationally controlled by cartels, while Democrats pat themselves on the back for compassion, using asylum as an excuse for wide open borders that do nothing good for the American people?”

    A Border Patrol agent picks up three illegal aliens after Texas state troopers arrested two U.S. citizen smugglers who were transporting them to San Antonio, in Kinney County, Texas, on Oct. 20, 2021.

    Roy has introduced a bill that seeks to designate two cartels as terrorist organizations in the last two congressional legislative sessions.

    The bill directs the State Department to designate the Reynosa/Los Metros faction of the Gulf Cartel and the Cartel Del Noreste faction of Los Zetas as foreign terrorist organizations. It also requires the state department to produce a report on those cartels, as well as any others that meet the criteria.

    The bill has the support of 45 co-sponsors, all Republicans. But he’s not confident it will get passed during Biden’s administration.

    “They don’t give a rat’s rear end about securing the border or trying to go after cartels,” Roy said. But the bill also faces opposition from some Republicans.

    “You have some Republicans who hand-wring and go, ‘Well, you can’t call them cartels, because you elevate them to something that’s the same as the Taliban, or Al-Qaeda, or ISIS,” Roy said.

    “But to me, they are terrorizing the United States, they’re terrorizing people in Mexico. They’re doing it purposely, they’re doing it for political power, they’re doing it to enrich themselves.

    “They hang people, they bury people alive. They kill people and send videos to their families, so that they can terrorize people.”

    Roy said the United States needs to go after the cartels and reclaim operational control of the southern border.

    Meanwhile, he’s preparing to impeach Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas for dereliction of duty.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/31/2022 – 17:40

Digest powered by RSS Digest