May 01

Today’s News 1st May 2023

  • US Air Force Moves Strategic Air Tankers From Germeny To Poland
    US Air Force Moves Strategic Air Tankers From Germeny To Poland

    Via Remix News,

    Nineteen American in-flight refueling aircraft will be stationed at the Powidz Air Base in western Poland. According to the U.S. magazine Stars and Stripes, this is the latest sign that U.S. Armed Forces are shifting combat resources to strengthen NATO’s eastern flank.

    The U.S. Air Force command in Europe confirmed that on March 10 of this year “American air tankers began working in their new main location in Poland.”

    This was done as part of operation “Copper Arrow,” which demonstrated the efforts of the U.S. military command in Europe to “strengthen security on NATO’s eastern flank through forward deployed and stationed forces.”

    “The cooperation of American air tankers with our NATO allies clearly shows how much we value our partnerships and how important it is to increase our interoperability,” said Colonel Timothy Foery, advisor to the U.S. Air Force Reserve Commander.

    Foery noted that interoperability is evident when looking “at any photo of a KC-135 refueling a Polish F-16 or a KC-46 refueling a Finnish F/A-18.”

    American air tankers KC-135 Stratotanker, KC-10 Extender and the newest in the U.S. Air Force fleet, KC-46 Pegasus, could all be sent to the Powidz Air Base.

    The aircraft currently stationed at the Spangdahlem base in Germany, will be transferred to the Powidz air base as Unit 1. As emphasized by the U.S. Air Force leadership, this relocation also demonstrates “the ability of U.S. command to quickly deploy large, credible combat forces and equipment throughout Europe.”

    The tankers stationed in Powidz can be used for refueling combat aircraft, including the world’s most advanced fighter jet, the F-35A Lightning II, which extends the range of NATO air missions. Stars and Stripes notes that eight F-35 aircraft of the Dutch Air Force have been stationed in the Malbork air base in Poland for several months.

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    Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the presence of U.S. forces in Europe has increased, with the number of U.S. military personnel on the continent growing from 80,000 to 100,000.

    U.S. Ambassador to Warsaw Mark Brzezinski recently stated that over 10,000 American soldiers are in Poland.

    “The U.S. military’s shift to the east is another example of the United States’ efforts to create a permanent presence in the former Warsaw Pact country, an important member of NATO, which has over 300 miles of border with Ukraine,” said reporter Jennifer Svan in Stars and Stripes.

    A month ago, the United States officially established its first permanent base in Poland. The U.S. Army garrison in Poznań, located about 100 kilometers from Powidz, will support the V Corps of the Army, which oversees NATO missions in the east.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/01/2023 – 02:00

  • The Left Has No Intention Of Going Quietly Into The Night
    The Left Has No Intention Of Going Quietly Into The Night

    Authored by Bruce Wilds via Advancing Time,

    Younguns is a folksy term used mainly by people with a few years under their belt to refer to those far younger. Sometimes this term focuses on those under thirty. These people often don’t realize those injuries they see as badges of honor will far too soon turn to aches and pain. Today I find myself at low-ebb, it may be a combination of too much work and a recent birthday taking its toll.

    Adding to this is the reality that we live in a world that has made a mockery of hard work and savings, this is a major disservice to those carrying the load. Many people fail to take into account that the socialist agenda of the far left is in many ways anti-social. As we look around it is easy to see that much of the workforce has gone full “John Galt” and decided not to participate in the job market. Much of this is driven by the notion that hard work does not pay big dividends and we might as well dump our problems off onto those stupid enough to accept them.  

    Society and politicians are rapidly dismantling the rights of ownership. This transfer of rights constitutes a transfer of wealth whether we wish to call it by that name or not. This is the main reason so many of the most capable contributors to our economy are now moving toward the sidelines. Capable and smart people do not have to work hard to make ends meet and are proving this by going out and enjoying life rather than working to support those that won’t. When people decide to remove themselves from a game they see as rigged in favor of those far less deserving it is an indication of greater problems ahead.

    Still, make no mistake, the left claiming it is “progressive” has no intention of melting quietly into the night. I fear those both in the middle and on the right that think things will turn around are overly optimistic. Those on the right often point to California as a failed state. They use as an example drug-infested San Fransisco. At the end of 2021, it was estimated that of the city’s roughly 8,124 people that were at the time “unhoused,” a full 73 percent were “unsheltered.”  This means they sleep out of doors, in tents, and under highway overpasses.

    Catch-22 Is A Real Thing

    What is being cast upon us is breeding a culture that lacks accountability. The legal system is failing. From the smallest to the largest issues we face, it seems few are being resolved in a way most people find uplifting. More often than we would like we are running smack dab into the proverbial catch-22 situations that try our souls. A catch-22 is a paradoxical situation from which an individual cannot escape because of contradictory rules or limitations. The term was coined by Joseph Heller, who used it in his 1961 novel Catch-22.

    While much of the country views high taxes, rampant drug use, and crime as the reason many major retailers are closing stores in the state, its Governor is being touted as a candidate for the Presidency in 2024. The bad news is that if you think it can’t get any worse, you are wrong. Sadly, society has turned onto a fast path to ruin downward. A slew of lightweight JV thinkers have taken us down the rabbit hole when it comes to creating a better future.

    We Need A Hero, But None Is In Sight

    It could be argued that those on the far left have been joined by, or are being egged on and encouraged by those wishing to weaken the United States from the inside. Russia and China are generally painted as the villains in such a scenario. The real problem we face is that true leadership tends not to exist in a vacuum. The fact is that we need a hero and they are in short supply. It has been said, the “pioneers took all the arrows,” meaning it is much safer to travel west today. It also means people of real value will most likely be destroyed if they attempt to move to the front.

    A feeling of hopelessness recently descended upon me when I became a victim of vandalism. How do you protect what can not be protected? The catch-22 here is that you have a very difficult time insuring an empty building but how do you rent it when it is constantly being ripped apart by vandals? While not the economic disaster that will end me, such events are “mentally” troubling. It is also why so many people shy away from owning hard assets, this applies to gold, real estate, and more. Readers of AdvancingTime know not owning “real things” is an investment strategy I consider problematic. 

    The efforts of those in power to paint vandalism of private property as mischief is the reason so many Americans when given the chance, op to live in gated communities. In truth, we cannot “gate off” everything. This reflects society’s inability to make people behave. The failure of people to take responsibility for their actions signals greater problems ahead.

    It does not help that we are facing a toxic mix when it comes to protecting our freedom. Big companies are predatory and big governments are stupid. The thing they have in common is they both want more control and power. In truth, we are the underdog in this ongoing struggle for control of our lives and progressives are promoting policies that empower those that want to control us. Throw in the likelihood of an economic reset or hard landing and you might say, if you think it can’t get any worse, you are wrong. Lowering your expectations may be in order.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 04/30/2023 – 23:30

  • These Are The Most Dangerous Countries To Work In
    These Are The Most Dangerous Countries To Work In

    In many regions of the world, workplace safety has drastically increased over the last couple of decades, ensuring healthy working environments for many employees. As the collapse of Rana Plaza, a nine-story building in Bangladesh housing several garment workshops connected in large part to the fast fashion industry, ten years ago shows, there is still lots of room for improvement though. Research quoted by the International Labor Organization (ILO) suggests that in 2017 alone, 2.8 million people died and a further 374 million people suffered non-fatal injuries in their line of work.

    As Statista’s Florian Zandt details below, according to data from ILO, Costa Rica currently has the highest number of work-related injuries with 9,421 non-fatal as well as 9.7 fatal occupational injuries per 100,000 workers in 2016. For decades, the nation’s economy relied heavily on agriculture and tourism. Since the turn of the millennium, manufacturing and industry have surpassed the agricultural sector, with companies like Intel or Procter & Gamble heavily investing in the country. According to media reports, Intel’s microprocessor facility was responsible for five percent of the total GDP and 20 percent of all Costa Rican exports in 2006.

    Infographic: The Most Dangerous Countries To Work In | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Anecdotal evidence from other countries suggests that the aforementioned focus on industry and manufacturing might also be responsible for the high number of fatal occupational injuries. While Costa Rica doesn’t provide segregated data on fatal injuries by economic activity, Mexico and Turkey, which rank ninth and tenth in terms of non-fatal as well as second and third in terms of fatal occupational injuries, do. In Mexico, for example, out of 806 work-related deaths, 118 people died in the manufacturing, 76 in the construction and 86 in the transportation and storage sectors. Turkey registered 386 deaths in construction, 297 deaths in manufacturing and 258 deaths in transportation and storage out of a total of 1,394.

    Nations known for their textile industries like Pakistan and Portugal also make the top list of the countries with the most occupational injuries per 100,00 workers. While independent auditors regularly check and sign off on labor practices and working conditions in the fashion industries of the aforementioned countries, the reality is often far grimmer than official assessments suggest. A report by NGO Human Rights Watch on Pakistan’s garment workers from 2019, for example, points out companies failing to pay their employees the minimum wage, a lack of written contracts, firings of pregnant women and pay deductions for sick days.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 04/30/2023 – 23:00

  • Welcome To Trading With The New Daily VIX
    Welcome To Trading With The New Daily VIX

    By SpotGamma

    New this Tuesday, the trading world now has a VIX1D (0-1 DTE) index. With HIRO, we give you a multi-day view under the SPX hood by showing how its zero DTE options are moving in real time. We also have this view available for hundreds of major stocks and ETFs. What this new index represents is a balance of zero-DTE and one-DTE options on SPX.

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    Let’s take a look at the first three trading days of the VIX1D.  First, on Tuesday, April 25th, call selling weighed down on the market, as indicated by the green line while the puts were not impactful. Then, on Wednesday, puts were more in control, leading the market up in the morning and then back down in the afternoon.  Lastly, starting with some call buying and then put selling for a doubly bullish lift on the index price, the market trended higher.  You can see the meaningful impact of the 0DTE tool throughout these three days.

    Adding the new VIX1D as a datapoint to your trading arsenal can get you up to par. But if you combine that with our proprietary key levels, then this can really set your trading apart from the crowd.

    One of over a dozen tools we provide specifically for analyzing index products is our interactive chart of Absolute Gamma, as shown here from Thursday night, which identifies call gamma in orange and put gamma in blue. This is across all option chains but you can also filter it down to zero DTE.

    These high gamma levels are structural boundaries which have a statistically-significant influence over price action. The price tends to be attracted to these levels, but price movements also generally slow down near them and reverse direction.

    Alternatively, here is a view of that same Absolute Gamma tool but restricted to the scope of zero DTE option structure. Although the bigger picture of all chains shows an important structural firewall at 4000 for the broader market, that 4000 level is too far away for zero DTE traders to take meaningful interest. What this more focused view clarifies is that zero DTE options have the heaviest market gamma between 4100 and 4150, which is where the market was taking its bets for Friday.

    Below 4100, there are not enough puts to generate substantial gamma.

    This structural backbone provides context which helps to make signals from VIX1D less noisy. We can use key gamma boundaries and levels to set up high-probability trades. In outlier events where the price breaks outside of these ranges, especially if the price is still below the Call Wall  or above the Put Wall, there is less gamma to slow down the price and there can be some very big moves akin to the price escaping from the bottom or top of a volume profile. If breaking above a new level, all the buyers are making money (rather than trying to get it back at resistance), and that trend can easily move beyond expectations.

    As an example of a tactical application, if you see HIRO option flow moving up and leading the price, then you might want to open a covered call (long shares and short a call) to enhance your position and collect some yield if there is not much movement in the underlying price. Or if your outlook is directionally neutral, such as if the price is near our largest Absolute Gamma level and there is positive market gamma, then you could try a credit iron condor: short two options near the middle and long options further out-of-the-money as wingtips. This credit iron condor strategy harvests time premium if realized volatility remains low.

    On the other hand, if you are neutral but you expect volatility to expand, then you could try something like a long straddle, which will have defined risk but uncapped potential profits if there is a large move in either direction. Data suggests that a breach to the downside of our Volatility Trigger would usually be a good time to do that.  

    If you are serious about trading, then we invite you to be on the ground floor of this new VIX1D arena with us and to join us in the discussion on our members-only Discord.

    Start a free trial now to see our daily analysis of these developments and also to have the best tools to get you a head start on this new frontier.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 04/30/2023 – 22:30

  • Not Too Old? Actuaries Chime In After Nikki Haley Says Biden 'Likely' To Die Within 5 Years
    Not Too Old? Actuaries Chime In After Nikki Haley Says Biden ‘Likely’ To Die Within 5 Years

    Last week, Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley said that 80-year-old President Joe Biden is likely to die within the next five years, and that his supporters would have to assume VP Kamala Harris would take his place.

    “He announced that he’s running again in 2024, and I think that we can all be very clear and say with a matter of fact that if you vote for Joe Biden you really are counting on a President Harris, because the idea that he would make it until 86 years old is not something that I think is likely,” the 51-year-old Haley told Fox News.

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    No so fast, according to the Financial Times, which – citing actuaries, say an 82-year-old Biden wouldn’t be too ancient to start a second term, which he would of course finish at the ripe young age of 86.

    According to UK actuarial firm Club Vita, Biden has a life expectancy of another 11 years, taking him to 91, while former President Donald Trump has 14 more years to look forward to.

    The model’s inputs include affluence, marital status, and employment. These key demographics for both Biden and Trump put them in the same favourable categories for the main factors, including addresses in the top category for life expectancy: the analysts used Trump’s Palm Beach address and Biden’s Delaware home.

    Erik Pickett, a New Jersey-based actuary for Club Vita, said a wide range of factors could prove its model wrong, from whether the candidates “are in significantly different health to the average of someone with the same characteristics” to the fact that presidents have “access to higher quality medical treatments” than the typical American. -Financial Times

    The average American male born on the same day as Biden can expect to live another 8.5 years, according to the Social Security Administration. 

    “I would say that both Biden and Trump are likely to have substantially higher life expectancy than the average, for their age, because they have high socio-economic status, access to the best healthcare in the US, and they do not smoke,” said Georgetown University senior research investigator, Dana Glei.

    “The president will have access to the highest-quality medical care and will remain physically, mentally and socially active whilst in the job — all factors that improve lifespan,” said Pickett, adding that this will be “at least partially countered by a high-stress environment and possibly a greater exposure to external risk factors.”

    And of course, Kamala Harris is ready for whatever might come…

    Comforting, no?

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 04/30/2023 – 22:00

  • Federal Bureaucrats (Outside The Pentagon And US Post Office) Are Paid Some $576 Million Per Day
    Federal Bureaucrats (Outside The Pentagon And US Post Office) Are Paid Some $576 Million Per Day

    Submitted by Adam Andrzejewski, author of OpenTheBooks substack

    Our auditors at OpenTheBooks.com recently determined from official Federal Freedom of Information Act filings that we pay Beltway bureaucrats in the federal executive agencies outside of the Defense Department and the U.S. Post Office some $576 million per day.

    That’s more than $210 billion per year for the 1.44 million employees of 125 rank-and-file general administrative, civil enforcement and federal law enforcement agencies.

    Economic uncertainty might surround many taxpayers, but for federal workers, we are funding lavish and perk-filled lifestyles.

    In 109 of the 125 federal agencies in Washington, the average employee salary is more than $100,000.

    According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the average real median wage for the average employee was $54,339 in 2021.

    The average salary at the Census Bureau is $67,656. That’s just a small example of the ‘private-sector’ versus ‘public-sector’ pay disparity.

    GRAPHIC: Unfortunately, President Donald Trump didn’t drain the swamp and President Joe Biden has put the growth on steroids. These are agencies outside of the Pentagon and Post Office.

    After working just three years for the federal government, employees have 44 days of paid time off. Can you skip work for nine weeks and still have a job?

    The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the average number of paid vacation days for U.S. workers is 11 days, or a day more than two weeks.

    Furthermore, most federal employees worked from home for years due to the recently concluded Covid “emergency.” Congress incentivized this with a $570 million “paid-to-stay home” fund at Treasury. If your child wasn’t back to school, you could collect $21,000 over 15 weeks in paid family leave.

    Congressional testimony shows Office of Personnel Management Director Kiran Ahuja still has no clue how many federal employees returned, or where the people we pay actually do their jobs.

    (Watch the answer starting at 3:00.)

    D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser, normally a staunch ally of the Biden Administration, had to call for getting federal employees back to work to revive the city’s economy.

    President Biden suggested he would soon ask workers to report for duty, but many desks remain empty because “flexibility” still prevails.

    Then, President Biden asked for the biggest pay raise in more than 40 years. His 2023 budget includes a 5.2% pay hike for the 1.4 million executive agency employees.

    We all had to pay our taxes when they were due a few weeks ago. For many federal employees, that rule is being flouted.

    In March 2023, the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration found that “The number of delinquent Federal civilian employees has increased by 32 percent from Fiscal Years (FY) 2015 to 2021.” Some 149,000 federal employees owe $1.5 billion in back taxes!

    In the private sector, pay is typically associated with performance. But in the federal government, performance appears not to figure into the compensation equation.

    Take the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). We were all reminded of its importance earlier this year with the implosions of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. The FDIC is there to insure depositors for up to $250,000, helping Americans trust that the banking system is reliable.

    Well, there are 58,000 employees at the FDIC—many of them auditors. Average salary? $160,000. None of them seemed to notice stress on the banking system. The two banks that failed were highly regarded institutions. But in fact, they had veered away from solvency.

    One might ask if we taxpayers – who will pick up the tab for this debacle according to the Administration’s plan — are getting what they we are paying for at the FDIC?

    Such disparities between pay and performance, and they are legion, are making an impact in Congress. Senator Joni Ernst (R.-Iowa) has joined our organization at OpenTheBooks.com in demanding answers to three questions that should be simple: Who is working? Where are they? What on Earth are they doing for us?

    As recent testimony by OPM Director Ahuja shows, the feds just don’t want us to know.

    For example, unlike its predecessors, the Biden Administration has redacted key information on federal workers.

    In the Biden Administration 2022 payroll, 350,861 worker names are redacted. Under the Obama Administration, in FY 2016, that figure was 2,300. Stunning.

    The administration has also redacted 281,656 worker locations.

    Our auditors estimate some $36 billion worth of taxpayer-funded salary, benefits and bonuses are hidden from Americans. Even worse, they are headed to mystery people in mystery locations.

    That means no scrutiny of performance versus pay. It means no oversight by Congress. It means no chance to cut bloat during the budget process.

    We don’t know who these workers are, what they do, where they work, or how much each of them makes.

    Like Senator Ernst, we plan to find out. At $576 million per day, it’s time we knew.

    Additional details found at Newsweek in a co-authored editorial “Where’s Waldo At Club Fed” with U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst and Adam Andrzejewski, CEO, OpenTheBooks.com.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 04/30/2023 – 21:30

  • "Fed Wishes It Had Shut Down Reverse Repo Which Is Making The Bank Run Worse… But It Didn't, And Now It's Too Late"
    “Fed Wishes It Had Shut Down Reverse Repo Which Is Making The Bank Run Worse… But It Didn’t, And Now It’s Too Late”

    By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

    “The Policy on Counterparties for Market Operations has been updated to clarify that, in addition to implementing monetary policy, broader policy goals including fostering financial stability and ensuring bank safety and soundness, are considered when reviewing a prospective or existing counterparty,” wrote the NY Fed on their website.

    And of course, on the surface, that’s the most boring quote I’ve ever opened with. Truly. But how about this?

    “SEC registered 2a-7 funds that, in the sole judgement of the New York Fed, are organized for a single beneficial owner, or exhibit sufficient similarities to a fund so organized, generally will be deemed ineligible to access reverse repo operations.”

    More boring. For sure.

    They concluded with this beauty: “These updates are intended to clarify the New York Fed’s existing counterparty management practices and do not impact the participation of current reverse repo counterparties.”

    My favorite word here is “clarify,” which suggests their policy was misunderstood. In fact, it was perfectly understood.

    So understood that the Fed needed to clarify to investors that accelerating the banking crisis is in nobody’s interest, especially not the Fed.

    But to appreciate such subtleties you must waste decades of the most productive years of your life reading these intentionally mind-numbing statements. Like I have. Do it long enough, you succumb to Stockholm Syndrome.

    So, to save you a life of torture, let me translate: The Fed introduced the reverse repo policy (RRP) in 2014 when they lost control of market operations at the zero lower bound. But after losing control of inflation, they hiked interest rates so fast it sparked a bank run.

    Now, investors are pulling cash from banks to buy money-market funds that invest in risk-free high-yielding reverse repos.

    This exacerbates the bank run, and contracts credit in the economy. Which scares investors into selling risk assets to park more cash in reverse repos.

    And our central bankers wish they’d seen this coming and shut the program years ago. But they didn’t and it’s too late. So instead, they “clarified” their intent, and will probably build another complex program on top of something that should no longer exist. And/or slash interest rates. In the hope of regaining control.

    Even as it slips away.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 04/30/2023 – 20:30

  • World's Top Buyer Of LNG Warns Of Another Price Spike
    World’s Top Buyer Of LNG Warns Of Another Price Spike

    The northern hemisphere experienced higher-than-average temperatures this past winter, which helped alleviate energy crunches and sent liquefied natural gas prices tumbling from record-high levels. Now the world’s largest gas buyer expects another price spike this year. 

    In an interview with Bloomberg, Yukio Kani, the chairman and CEO of Jera Co., expressed his concerns about another potential surge in LNG prices, attributing this to the increasing import capacity in Europe and China, along with potential severe weather risks.

    Here’s part of the interview:

    This winter, with import capacity in Europe rising and China potentially increasing demand after it ended pandemic restrictions, prices could spike again if severe weather strikes, he said. There’s no opportunity for buyers to “let their guards down,” Kani said.

    Jera, a venture between Tokyo Electric Power Co. Holdings Inc. and Chubu Electric Power Co., announced on Friday that it agreed to a 20-year deal to buy LNG from Venture Global LNG Inc.’s proposed terminal in Louisiana. While the company expects Japanese LNG demand to decline over the next decade, it could surprise by staying flat as more data centers and semiconductor factories are built, Kani said.

    “Those two facilities guzzle electricity, making it hard to read the demand outlook,” he said.

    Jera is also working to support Japan’s plans to use ammonia and hydrogen to decarbonize existing thermal power plants. The strategy has gotten pushback from other countries, most recently at the Group of Seven energy and environment ministers meeting. –Bloomberg 

    Kani’s comments come as Asian spot LNG futures are down 83.5% from last September’s high, touching lows not seen summer of 2021. 

    On the other side of the world, US NatGas and European NatGas futures are hovering at multi-year lows. 

    Kani’s prediction of severe weather could be linked to the likely return of the El Nino climate phenomenon this year, which may contribute to higher global temperatures and a subsequent rise in cooling demand, resulting in an increased need for gas. Additionally, as Europe rejiggers its energy supply chain away from Russia and relies more on US LNG shipments, supplies may face further tightening. Moreover, an uptick in China’s economic recovery could also boost LNG demand. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 04/30/2023 – 20:00

  • Death Toll Rises As Ukraine Ramps Up Attacks On Russian Border Towns
    Death Toll Rises As Ukraine Ramps Up Attacks On Russian Border Towns

    Casualties have risen after intense shelling of a Russian village in the Bryansk region near the Ukrainian border, an attack which happened Saturday, with emergency responders initially citing two killed. 

    The casualty count as been revised as rescuers comb through rubble of a residential building. Four civilians have died and another two wounded “as a result of the actions by Ukrainian nationalists,” governor Aleksandr Bogomaz announced Sunday.

    Authorities declared a state of emergency in the village of Suzemka, where the strike took place. It lies a mere 10km from Ukraine.

    The governor further said the wave of Ukrainian strikes hit a residential area, according to CNN: 

    Unverified video posted on Bogomaz’s Telegram channel shows people emerging from a damaged building at night.

    A person can be heard on the video saying, “They pulled a woman out. They’re still checking for a kid. Not sure. Horrible.”

    Attacks, including with drones, on Russian territory have increased of late as Ukrainian forces are reportedly preparing for a spring counteroffensive. 

    The biggest weekend attack was deep inside Crimea. Multiple drones hit a fuel depot early Saturday, unleashing a huge multiple-hours long blaze which could be seen for miles.

    Suzemka

    It appeared a retaliation strike in response to Friday’s major Russian cruise missile and drone attacks against several Ukrainian cities, particularly in the central part of the country.

    Additionally, international reports indicate over the weekend cited Moscow-installed officials in eastern Ukraine who said “Ukrainian shelling had killed nine people, including an eight-year-old girl in the city of Donetsk.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 04/30/2023 – 19:00

  • There Were 70 Major Bankruptcies In Just 4 Months This Year
    There Were 70 Major Bankruptcies In Just 4 Months This Year

    By Mish Shedlock of Mishtalk

    For 2009 there were 118 bankruptcies through April. In Covid-impacted 2020, there were 71 bankruptcies. In 2023 there have been 70.

    This is the third worst start to the year since 2000. Here’s the Tweet.

    2023 Bankruptcy Spotlight 

    • Bed Bath & Beyond: April 2023: Home goods, baby goods
    • David’s Bridal: Date: April 2023: Bridal apparel
    • Boxed: April 2023: An e-commerce platform selling wholesale consumer goods
    • Independent Pet Partners: February 2023: Pet supplies
    • Tuesday Morning: February 2023: Discount home goods
    • Serta Simmons Bedding: January 2023: Bedding and accessories
    • Party City: January 2023: Party supplies
    • Forma Brands: January 2023: Beauty products 

    The bankruptcy spotlight list is condensed from a detailed report by CBInsights. 

    Spotlight Bed Bath and Beyond

    NBC reports Bed Bath and Beyond Prepares for Store Closings

    “Thank you to all of our loyal customers,” Bed Bath & Beyond said in a message posted to social media on Monday. “We have made the difficult decision to begin winding down our operations. Bed Bath & Beyond and buybuy BABY stores remain open to serve you.”

    According to the retailer’s website, “deep discount” store closing sales are expected to begin in stores and online beginning Wednesday, and “all purchases during our store closing sales will be final.”

    According to the retailer, Bed Bath & Beyond websites, along with 360 brick-and-mortar stores and 120 buybuy BABY locations will “remain open and continue serving customers as the Company begins its efforts to effectuate the closure of its retail locations.”

    In Illinois, only eight Bed Bath & Beyond stores remain open, along with five buybuy BABY stores. Earlier this year, Bed Bath & Beyond announced closures of 19 stores across Illinois, many of them in the Chicago area.

    Deep Discounts, No Coupons

    Bed Bath and Beyond is no longer accepting coupons. Gift cards and loyalty certificates are still valid. All sales are final. 

    Spotlight David’s Bridal 

    CNN reports One in four brides wear David’s Bridal to their wedding. Now, it’s filing for bankruptcy

    “An increasing number of brides are opting for less traditional wedding attire, including thrift wedding dresses,” David’s Bridal said in a bankruptcy filing. “These shifting consumer preferences have significantly exacerbated” the company’s financial crunch.

    “The demand for formal wedding dresses, bridesmaid dresses, and related accessories has decreased substantially in the current environment,” the company said in its filing.

    David’s Bridal will keep its nearly 300 stores and website operating and fulfill all customer orders as it searches for a buyer for the company. It will also honor gift cards, returns and exchanges. But if David’s Bridal is not able to find a buyer, it could have to close all stores and liquidate.

    The company has around 10,000 full and part-time employees, but last week it said it was laying off 9,000 workers.

    David’s Bridal, the successor to a bridal retailing business that began as a single bridal salon in Ft. Lauderdale, Florida, in 1950, said approximately 25% of brides in the United States wear one of its gowns at their wedding.

    Nonstore Retail Sales as Percent of Advance Retail Sales

    Data from Commerce Department, chart by Mish.

    To create the chart I subtracted food, gasoline, motor vehicles, and items one does not normally buy online, then took the nonstore percentage of what remained. 

    Not only have consumer preferences shifted on what people buy, preferences have shifted in the way people buy. 

    The percentage of shopping online has been steadily rising but the Covid pandemic goosed the trend. It’s about four percentage points above the prior trend. 

    Amazon was the big beneficiary. It explains Amazon’s earnings report. Nonetheless, not all is well with Amazon.

    Amazon Layoffs

    On April 26, Geekwire reported Latest round of Amazon layoffs begins today, impacting AWS and human resources

    Amazon began notifying Amazon Web Services and human resources employees impacted by its latest round of layoffs on Wednesday, as the company continues to trim headcount to cut costs.

    The layoffs are part of the 9,000-person corporate workforce reduction announced by the company in March. The cuts mostly affect AWS, human resources (which Amazon calls PXT, for People Experience and Technology), Amazon Advertising, and Twitch.

    Amazon in January announced a 18,000-person layoff, the largest in the Seattle company’s history. The additional 9,000 layoffs bring the total to 27,000 job cuts, about 8% of Amazon’s corporate workforce, which previously numbered around 350,000 people.

    The company has trimmed back and eliminated several products, services, and entire businesses over the past year to help cut expenses, including its Scout neighborhood delivery robots, its Amazon Care primary healthcare business, bricks-and-mortar Amazon bookstores, and others. Amazon said Wednesday that it was shutting down its Halo health devices and service.

    M2 Money Supply Declines 8 Straight Months, ODL Down 12 Straight Months

    On April 12, I commented Fed Minutes Now Predict a Recession This Year Along With Higher Unemployment. Also note M2 Money Supply Declines 8 Straight Months, ODL Down 12 Straight Months.

    The economy is slowing fast. A rise in unemployment will follow,

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 04/30/2023 – 18:30

  • New California Gold Rush Coming As Record Snowpack Melts
    New California Gold Rush Coming As Record Snowpack Melts

    Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Gold isn’t raining from the sky in California, but it might be flooding into the rivers by summer.

    Tourists are seen panning gold during a tour with the California Gold Panning. (Courtesy of Nick Prebalick)

    “Nugget Nick” Prebalick expects the record snowpack in northern California to deposit even more gold in Woods Creek in Tuolumne County, where he shares a claim with his father and son near Jamestown. The family has been offering tours to those who want to experience gold mining and learn about the history of the gold rush in the state.

    “I’m already finding more gold,” Prebalick told The Epoch Times. “I’ve been finding gold every tour.”

    The Prebalicks, who own California Gold Panning, usually find about an ounce of gold a day when they take guests to pan for nuggets on their claim. The most he and his father have found was 127 ounces in one day.

    (L-R) Nick Prebalick, Nathania Prebalick, and prospector Terry Prebalick of California Gold Panning. (Courtesy of Nick Prebalick)

    As this year’s snow melts from the Sierra Nevada and other mountains, the runoff will wash away silt and deposit more gold in rivers and streams, prompting some to predict a modern-day gold rush this summer.

    California’s first gold rush in 1848 brought fortune seekers from all over the world. More than 300,000 came to the territory, and gold was worth $20.67 per ounce, according to the National Museum of American History.

    Today, each ounce is worth about $2,000.

    “I think this summer. I’m going to be swamped,” he said. “We’ll probably get 10 groups a day.”

    Mark Keene, who owns the mining equipment company Keene Engineering in Chatsworth—about 30 miles northwest of the city of Los Angeles—with his brother, told The Epoch Times he also anticipates a big increase in gold mining activities when the snow starts to melt.

    “In my lifetime, I don’t remember this much snowpack in the mountains,” Keene said, adding that he expects to see a superflood. Keene sells gold pans, sluice boxes, and other tools used by armatures and professionals.

    “When you have a catastrophic flood like that all the riverbanks and the mountainsides wash down in the river and you see a lot of gold,” he said. “It could be one of the best years in decades for mining.”

    Keene and his family have a secret mining spot and they visit on the weekends, he said.

    Gold flakes are being found in the Klamath River. (Courtesy of the New 49’ers Prospecting Association)

    “It’s not always about the gold,” he said. “It’s about the journey and the adventure of it, too.”

    First-timers need to know the rules before heading out to look for treasures, though, said Dickey Melton, manager of The New 49’ers Prospecting Association, a gold mining club based about 20 south of the Oregon border in Happy Camp, California.

    “What we have now is a whole bunch of hand miners,” Melton said, as state law prohibits any type of mining other than panning, sluice boxes, or shovels.

    Even with restrictions, many people come out to the club’s 63 claims on 83 miles on the Klamath River, which flows more than 250 miles through Oregon and northern California.

    “We get people from all over the world who come here,” Melton said. “Right now, all of that snow is melting, and the rivers are running really high. We’re seeing some hand miners coming in with some pretty good gold.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 04/30/2023 – 17:30

  • "Falsification Of History": Egypt Goes Ballistic On Netflix Over Cleopatra's Race
    “Falsification Of History”: Egypt Goes Ballistic On Netflix Over Cleopatra’s Race

    According to Egypt’s antiquities ministry, an upcoming four-part drama-documentary produced by Netflix has made a serious error regarding the race of one of Egypt’s pharaohs. It appears that ‘woke capital’ is distorting history. 

    “Queen Cleopatra,” released May 10, has Black actor Adele James featured as the legendary leader. The move by Jada Pinkett Smith, the producer and narrator of the series, has infuriated Mostafa Waziri, head of the Supreme Antiquities Council, who said: portraying Cleopatra as Black is “a falsification of Egyptian history.”

    Waziri said nothing was racist about his comments, which were entirely motivated by “defending the history of Queen Cleopatra, an important part of the history of Egypt in antiquity.”

    Egyptian experts insist Cleopatra had “white skin and Hellenistic characteristics.” But don’t tell ‘woke Netflix’ this… 

    An online petition on Change.org titled Cancel Netflix’s “Queen Cleopatra” has nearly 8,000 signatures. It alleges:

    “Afrocentrism is a pseudoscience that is pushing a group’s agenda to claim Egypt’s history and rob the actual Egyptians of it. By using false articles and zero evidence, they are still attempting to falsify history.”

    “Cleopatra was born in Alexandria, Egypt in the Ptolemaic dynasty to Greek descent. She was NOT black. This is in no way against black people, and is simply a wake up call to preserve the history and the integrity of the Egyptians and the Greeks.”

    “The show is clearly done to complement the Afrocentric movement, which claims to be the owner of the ancient Egyptian civilization, and to consolidate what the movement promotes. Egypt was never black and it was never white, Egypt is just Egypt. There are many great African/black civilizations, but Egypt was/is NOT one of them. Sign the petition to stop the falsification of history!” 

    Meanwhile, Egypt has been critical of Netflix’s content. It recently demanded the online streaming platform to drop content that runs counter to its “societal values,” such as Western-produced television shows featuring gay and lesbian characters onscreen. 

    So, in Egypt’s view, woke Netflix is distorting history. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 04/30/2023 – 17:00

  • In Big Win For Gun-Rights Advocates, Federal Judge Enjoins Illinois' Assault Weapons Ban
    In Big Win For Gun-Rights Advocates, Federal Judge Enjoins Illinois’ Assault Weapons Ban

    Authored by Jonathan Turley,

    In a major victory for gun rights advocates, U.S. District Judge Stephen McGlynn has granted a preliminary injunction of Illinois’ ban on assault weapons and large capacity magazines. The decision comes after two other district courts ruled in favor of the law — sending this issue to the United States Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit and potentially the Supreme Court.  These long-awaited challenges will test the Democratic calls for removing all AR-15s and similar weapons, including calls from President Joe Biden.

    I have previously raised doubts over some of these laws, which are based on questionable factual claims and distinctions between weapons. Indeed, President Biden has made dubious constitutional and historical claims about the Second Amendment and AR-15s.

    Illinois and New York have previously supplied gun rights advocates with huge victories by drafting facially unconstitutional laws. Moderate efforts at gun control are often ramped up in the legislative process to become more and more sweeping.

    McGlynn recognized that gun bans are popular in states like Illinois but noted that “even legislation that may enjoy the support of a majority of its citizens must fail if it violates the constitutional rights of fellow citizens.”

    The court tackles the argument made by many gun control advocates that states can ban “non-essential accessories” like magazines because they are not themselves “arms” under the Second Amendment.

    PICA outlaws possession of a “semiautomatic pistol” with a detachable magazine if it is equipped with any of the following: “a threaded barrel,” “a shroud attached to the barrel or that partially or completely encircles the barrel,” “a flash suppressor,” or “arm brace.” PICA further outlaws possession of a magazine for a handgun capable of holding more than 15 rounds of ammunition and of “[a] semiautomatic pistol that has a fixed magazine with the capacity to accept more than 15 rounds.” Defendants contend that such items are not necessary to the functioning of a firearm and are thus not “arms” and therefore not protected by the Second Amendment.

    Defendants’ argument is not persuasive. The Seventh Circuit has recognized the Second Amendment as extending to “corollar[ies] to the meaningful exercise of the core right to possess firearms for self-defense.” It is hard to imagine something more closely correlated to the right to use a firearm in self-defense than the ability to effectively load ammunition into the firearm. The Third Circuit recognized the importance of this corollary and held that “a magazine is an arm under the Second Amendment.”

    McGlynn also stated that it is “bordering on the frivolous” to claim that neither large capacity magazines nor assault weapons are protected because they were not in common use when the Second Amendment was ratified. He cited the long-standing rule that “the Second Amendment extends, prima facie, to all instruments that constitute bearable arms, even those that were not in existence at the time of the founding.”

    The court also rejected the claim that the standard is whether a weapon was in common use for self-defense:

    Bruen clearly holds that the Second Amendment protects “possession and use” of weapons “in common use” not just weapons in common use for self-defense as Defendants’ argued. Even if there was a requirement that the “common use” of an “arm” be self-defense, AR-15 style rifles would meet such a test considering that 34.6% of owners utilize these rifles for self-defense outside of their home and 61.9% utilize them for self-defense at home.

    The court further noted that large capacity magazines are commonly owned and used by sporting enthusiasts and there are more AR-15s than F150s in this country.

    Judge McGlynn also noted that these weapons are commonly used for self-defense and that there are up to 2.5 million instances each year in which civilians used firearms for home defense. He added:

    “In no way does this Court minimize the damage caused when a firearm is used for an unlawful purpose; however, this Court must be mindful of the rights guaranteed by the Constitution. While PICA was purportedly enacted in response to the Highland Park shooting, it does not appear that the legislature considered an individual’s right under the Second Amendment nor Supreme Court precedent. Moreover, PICA did not just regulate the rights of the people to defend themselves; it restricted that right, and in some cases, completely obliterated that right by criminalizing the purchase and the sale of more than 190 “arms.” Furthermore, on January 1, 2024, the right to mere possession of these items will be further limited and restricted Accordingly, the balance of harms favors the Plaintiffs.

    The Court recognizes that the issues with which it is confronted are highly contentious and provoke strong emotions. Again, the Court’s ruling today is not a final resolution of the merits of the cases. Nothing in this order prevents the State from confronting firearm-related violence. There is a wide array of civil and criminal laws that permit the commitment and prosecution of those who use or may use firearms to commit crimes. Law enforcement and prosecutors should take their obligations to enforce these laws seriously. Families and the public at large should report concerning behavior. Judges should exercise their prudent judgment in committing individuals that pose a threat to the public and imposing sentences that punish, not just lightly inconvenience, those guilty of firearm-related crimes.”

    Here is the opinion: 2023-04-28-Order-Granting-MPI

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 04/30/2023 – 16:30

  • The Great American Opt-Out: A Matter Of Willingness, Willfulness, And Will
    The Great American Opt-Out: A Matter Of Willingness, Willfulness, And Will

    Authored by Bob Maistros via American Greatness,

    A Great American Opt-Out, the partition of the world’s foremost superpower into separate red and blue nations, is certainly not a subject to be taken – nor a suggestion to be made – lightly. 
     

    But a superpower won’t remain super when, as Victor Davis Hanson lately lamented, it must “fixate only on the irrelevant that we think we can address while ignoring the existential.” 

    These existential yet insoluble problems? They are self-inflicted wounds like weakened security, economic ruin, dysfunctional cities, nonexistent borders, transgender tyranny, and the weaponization of our justice system. 

    And add as a coup de grace—the ultimate point past the point of no return—Joe Biden’s diktat disappearing the internal combustion engine. This will accelerate a death spiral for automakers and power producers already overwhelmed by renewable mandates. It will accentuate energy poverty, lead to decreased private ownership of soon-to-be-unaffordable automobiles, and ultimately actuate a forced flight from capacious suburbs to cramped spaces in family-unfriendly urbs—and a crimped American Dream.

    Why are these problems insoluble? Because any dissent from the ruling class narrative risks persecution, prosecution, “peaceful” (read riotous) protests, lawsuits, suspensions, canceling, and cutoffs of livelihoods and necessities. 

    Moreover, all meaningful avenues to counter mendacious, monolithic misrule by out-of-touch elites remain stubbornly blocked.

    Today’s executive branch is a pen-and-phone and deep state-dominated operation, utterly disdainful of the people it is ostensibly devoted to serve.

    Our justice system systematically weaponizes itself against that citizenry and the judiciary injudiciously generates inventive subversions of its will (See: Obamacare, DACA, transgender rights). 

    Corporate America co-opts portfolios and pension funds to undermine investors’ and workers’ interests in the service of a woke ideology, an even more woke corporate media colludes with one political party, and our woke culture devalues core American values. 

    We have a solve-nothing, spend-everything (and more) Congresses. 

    We have an electoral process that—whether or not irretrievably tainted by systemic fraud and rigged by an elite “cabal”—dubiously delivered not just the White House but also net midterm senatorial, gubernatorial, and state legislative gains to the party of the most decrepit, degenerate, disdained and disaster-inducing presidential incumbent in history. 

    Stein’s Law (as in Herbert) posits, “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.” America’s paralysis in fixing existential problems cannot go on at all, much less forever, without a ceding of its superpower status—if not a Weimar-level collapse.

    It must stop. Soon. But how? 

    Just as Issues & Insights has documented millions of citizens fleeing blue-state economic, political and social rot, the sole solution for Red America is to simply vote with its feet. 

    That is, walk. Opt out.

    Some suggest the union’s geographically dominant red counties could lead such an exodus. But a more likely route is for red states—perhaps the 18 that unsuccessfully banded together to challenge the 2020 election results—to declare the union dissolved, whether due to that illegitimate outcome or because of the unceasing, extraconstitutional thwarting of sovereignty in the swamp. Perhaps invite red counties in blue jurisdictions to be annexed into neighboring jurisdictions, or even form new states. 

    In either event, it’s not difficult to conceive the formation of a provisional government, pending a new constitution and elections, including current members of Congress and federal judges from departing states, and an executive of existing governors. 

    Nor is it difficult to conceive the negotiation of dissolution terms, as previously suggested, including a joint defense pact and shared assumption of responsibility for unfunded liabilities. (Division of “trust funds?” A mere fiction in a nation $31 trillion in debt.) 

    An overwhelmingly conservative government could otherwise set about dismantling the nanny state in its jurisdictions while instituting the remedies to current maladies Victor Davis Hanson also identified.

    In short, the logistics and implementation of partition are imaginable and manageable. The musts to muster? The willingness to admit that “out” is the only sustainable avenue to making America great again, given the hijacking of its commanding heights. The willfulness to advocate and agitate for that result. And the will to see a separation through. 

    Those elements may seem far off and unattainable given the lack of seriousness with which partition suggestions have been regarded to date, even among conservatives, and its regrettable association with the ill-fated and immoral Confederate cause. 

    But where was the transgenderism now darkly gripping America even a few years back? Who foresaw Black Lives Matter’s rapid rise and the rule of law’s sudden suspension? Or the Green New Deal’s nanosecond-long advance from political punch line to administration policy? 

    Opt-out must proceed, to succeed, with the same insistence, sense of urgency and level of volume as those efforts. Starting with igniting and incessantly fanning a fire in forums like these. Making it a theme of an unceasing series conservative gatherings and marches and hearings. Confronting candidates for every office at every level at every opportunity and thereby choosing and encouraging champions. 

    At America’s accelerated rate of decline, there is not a moment to waste. And with every elite political, economic, social, cultural, and judicial institution mobilized against its citizenry, no further “point of no return” to be passed.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 04/30/2023 – 15:30

  • 200 Years Of Global Gold Production, By Country
    200 Years Of Global Gold Production, By Country

    Although the practice of gold mining has been around for thousands of years, it’s estimated that roughly 86% of all above-ground gold was extracted in the last 200 years.

    With modern mining techniques making large-scale production possible, global gold production has grown exponentially since the 1800s.

    In the infographic below, Visual Capitalist‘s Govind Bhutada and Miranda Smith, using data from Our World in Data, visualizes global gold production by country from 1820 to 2022, showing how gold mining has evolved to become increasingly global over time.

    A Brief History of Gold Mining

    The best-known gold rush in modern history occurred in California in 1848, when James Marshall discovered gold in Sacramento Valley. As word spread, thousands of migrants flocked to California in search of gold, and by 1855, miners had extracted around $2 billion worth of gold.

    The United States, Australia, and Russia were (interchangeably) the three largest gold producers until the 1890s. Then, South Africa took the helm thanks to the massive discovery in the Witwatersrand Basin, now regarded today as one of the world’s greatest ever goldfields.

    South Africa’s annual gold production peaked in 1970 at 1,002 tonnes—by far the largest amount of gold produced by any country in a year.

    With the price of gold rising since the 1980s, global gold production has become increasingly widespread. By 2007, China was the world’s largest gold-producing nation, and today a significant quantity of gold is being mined in over 40 countries.

    The Top Gold-Producing Countries in 2022

    Around 31% of the world’s gold production in 2022 came from three countries—China, Russia, and Australia, with each producing over 300 tonnes of the precious metal.

    North American countries Canada, the U.S., and Mexico round out the top six gold producers, collectively making up 16% of the global total. The state of Nevada alone accounted for 72% of U.S. production, hosting the world’s largest gold mining complex (including six mines) owned by Nevada Gold Mines.

    Meanwhile, South Africa produced 110 tonnes of gold in 2022, down by 74% relative to its output of 430 tonnes in 2000. This long-term decline is the result of mine closures, maturing assets, and industrial conflict, according to the World Gold Council.

    Interestingly, two smaller gold producers on the list, Uzbekistan and Indonesia, host the second and third-largest gold mining operations in the world, respectively.

    The Outlook for Global Gold Production

    As of April 25, gold prices were hovering around the $2,000 per ounce mark and nearing all-time highs. For mining companies, higher gold prices can mean more profits per ounce if costs remain unaffected.

    According to the World Gold Council, mined gold production is expected to increase in 2023 and could surpass the record set in 2018 (3,300 tonnes), led by the expansion of existing projects in North America. The chances of record mine output could be higher if gold prices continue to increase.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 04/30/2023 – 15:00

  • Cash Use Rises As Households Struggle To Cope With High Inflation
    Cash Use Rises As Households Struggle To Cope With High Inflation

    Authored by Bryan Jung via The Epoch Times,

    Cash payments have made a comeback as households struggle to cope with high inflation, according to a new study.

    After decades of falling cash use, the impact of the rapid inflation growth has been reversing the trend toward digital.

    Credit Karma and The Harris Poll conducted a survey last month, which showed that 53 percent of adults in the United States and 46 percent in the United Kingdom are more likely to use cash than a year ago, reported Bloomberg.

    Individuals preferring cash rose 19 and 4 percentage points, respectively, over those who did not use it more.

    Roughly three in five cash users in both countries said using physical money makes them spend less.

    The change in preferences towards cash over digital is also a reaction to the growing dominance of the latter, such as Apple Pay to Venmo to tappable credit cards, which some consumers say make it too easy to spend through their budget.

    Over two-thirds of the 3,171 survey respondents admit that digital payment methods made them spend more than intended.

    Cash Use Rises Among Young

    High inflation rates have made people more self-conscious about what they spend daily, especially in the U.K., where price gains remain above 10 percent.

    “As the world is getting back to normal after the pandemic and prices are going up significantly, we see cash as being one of the most enduring ways of managing money,” said Courtney Alev, an associate director of product management at Credit Karma.

    “It really transcends generations and financial situations.”

    The surge in cash use was especially pronounced among younger generations, such as Millennials and Gen Z, the survey found.

    Younger consumers facing hard times are following the trend towards “cash-stuffing” by watching TikTok videos, that teach people how to separate their cash into different envelopes to use for different expenses, much like their grandparents or great-grandparents might have done during the Great Depression.

    Consumers are also utilizing social media venues like Facebook to avoid businesses that do not accept cash.

    Natalie Ceeney, chairwoman of Cash Access UK, told Bloomberg, “a lot of the theory on payments has been to remove friction,” and that “actually, a lot of people want friction back.”

    Cash Access’s mission is to promote easier access to cash following legislation to stem its decline.

    A woman holds British pound banknotes in this illustration taken on May 30, 2022. (Dado Ruvic/Reuters)

    Ceeney said that studies found a large increase in sales when businesses in personal contact with consumers, such as the sports industry, switch to contactless payments.

    “One of the reasons is people are more likely to just tap and buy things without thinking, ‘Gosh, that’s a lot of money.’”

    Some fintech companies are trying to assist struggling consumers by introducing features that help with setting limits on everyday spending, reported Bloomberg.

    Digital Currency Proposed

    The survey findings suggest that the recovery in payments in cash after pandemic lows might not be temporary, as studies by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England seem to confirm.

    The BOE noted in October that it had seen a “sustained, if partial, recovery in cash use” post-pandemic and that banknotes in circulation have risen close to a historic high.

    The U.K. bank, Nationwide Building Society, reported in January that more than 30.2 million withdrawals were made from its ATMs last year, a 19 percent jump from 2021, likely due to the rising cost of living.

    The British central bank said that the use of paper currency and coins are especially useful for lower-income households that are struggling to deal with inflated costs, ranging from food to rent payments.

    Meanwhile, central banks worldwide, including the BOE, are pushing ahead with plans to introduce digital versions of their currencies, which is a very unpopular move among the public.

    Privacy advocates worry about a loss of privacy and the potential for government surveillance if digital currencies become mandatory.

    The Fed itself published a paper outlining the benefits of a digital dollar, but officials say there will be no “Fedcoin” without any action by Congress.

    The continuous rise in cash use may depend on how the central banks will manage to tame stubbornly high inflation rates in the coming months.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 04/30/2023 – 14:30

  • Vultures Circling: Bearish Bets Against REITs Soar As CRE Meltdown Risks Mount
    Vultures Circling: Bearish Bets Against REITs Soar As CRE Meltdown Risks Mount

    As storm clouds gather over the commercial real estate market, it faces ever-darker prospects by the week. Short-seller vultures are circling above CRE REITs, targeting these investment vehicles with significant exposures to office, retail, and hotel with massive bearish bets on the hope “more borrowers will default on office debt as interest costs increase and property values fall,” as reported by Bloomberg. 

    New data compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence shows short interest in some of the largest REITs with exposure to commercial properties, Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. and Starwood Property Trust Inc., have soared in recent weeks. 

    Hedge funds are making bearish bets in the credit derivatives and equities spaces on the premise remote and hybrid work will continue to paralyze demand for tier 2 and 3 properties and crush landlords. Data from broker Cushman & Wakefield indicates office vacancy rates are rising at alarming rates. 

    The gold-standard measure of office occupancy trends is the card-swipe data provided by Kastle Systems. The average office occupancy nationwide is around 46%, still well off the highs from pre-pandemic levels. 

    The problem now is borrowers lack new tenants, which means default risk increases and negatively impacts REITs. These investment vehicles generate revenue from the spread between their capital costs and the interest rates charged to borrowers for loans. 

    Gavriel Kahane, the co-founder of real estate investment firm Arkhouse, warned there’s mounting concern among top investors about “ballooning defaults on held loans” due partly to higher refinancing costs. He noted:

    “Mortgage REITs in general do better when the Fed funds rate stays constant, and in this hyper-turbulent environment distress bubbles up.” 

    The surge in bearish bets is an ominous sign market participants recognize the CRE space is headed for severe pain. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported a delinquency rate on office loans across all lenders climbed to 2.7% at the end of 2022, up from 1.6% in the previous quarter. We suspect that the rate will continue to rise throughout this year.  

    Bloomberg noted, “Office loans are a minority of the portfolios for the mortgage REITs that are being shorted.” 

    Recall last month, we pointed out that regional banking turmoil would have spillover effects in the CRE space — especially the office sector (Read: New “Big Short” Hits Record Low As Focus Turns To $400 Billion CRE Debt Maturity Wall). And since then, JPM, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs have all joined the CRE gloom parade. 

    We highlighted the next big short: BBB- tranches of CMBX Series 15, due to its outsized exposure to office commercial real estate…

    BBB- tranches of CMBX Series 15 is sliding again. 

    We also cautioned about a large maturity wall in the CRE sector, with $400 billion of debt due this year. Morgan Stanley data shows $2.5 trillion in CRE debt comes due over the next five years.

    Perhaps last week’s Vornado Realty Trust announcement about delaying its dividend is a harbinger of what’s to come. The REIT just hit a 27-year low. 

    Read this: 

    “We expect private equity and commercial real estate to suffer as regional banks were disproportionate funders of these sectors and the crisis has shut leveraged lending primary markets for the time being,” fund managers James Hanbury and Jamie Grimston of Brook Asset Management wrote in a letter to investors seen by Bloomberg.

    The latest BofA Fund Managers Survey (available to pro subs in the usual place) shows institutional players are most bearish on real estate since 2009.

    Meanwhile, CRE Billionaire Sam Zell recently told New York University graduate students that remote work is a “bunch of bullshit” and that they should dismiss the idea of working from home. It might be hard for Zell to persuade folks to return to the office. These work trends seem permanent and will exert pressure on the CRE space, with mounting risks of a default wave. The dominos appear to be already falling. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 04/30/2023 – 14:00

  • MIT Scientists Create New Nanoparticle Sensors To Detect Early Cancer Via Simple Paper Test
    MIT Scientists Create New Nanoparticle Sensors To Detect Early Cancer Via Simple Paper Test

    Authored by Bill Pan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Scientists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) have designed nanoparticle sensors that could diagnose early-stage cancer through a simple urine test on a strip of paper.

    Approximately one-third of cancer deaths are caused by factors such as smoking, high body mass index, alcohol consumption, low intake of fruits and vegetables, and lack of physical activity. Many cancers can be cured if detected early and treated effectively. (Freepik)

    The scientists said these sensors, designed to detect many cancerous proteins, could also distinguish the type of tumor, how it responds to treatment, and whether it has metastasized.

    “We are trying to innovate in a context of making technology available to low- and middle-resource settings. Putting this diagnostic on paper is part of our goal of democratizing diagnostics and creating inexpensive technologies that can give you a fast answer at the point of care,” said Sangeeta Bhatia, a biomedical engineer at MIT and senior author of the study published on April 24 in Nature Nanotechnology.

    Bhatia’s team had initially investigated the concept of detecting naturally occurring cancer biomarkers, such as proteins or circulating tumor cells, in the patient’s blood samples. However, these biomarkers are hard to find, especially at early stages, prompting the team to create “synthetic biomarkers” that could diagnose cancer by amplifying small-scale changes occurring within small tumors.

    Nanoparticles previously created by the team can detect the activity of proteases, biological catalysts that can help tumor cells spread. However, since this equipment is not always available, the researchers developed new nanoparticle sensors that could be analyzed more easily and affordably using a technology that reads repetitive DNA sequences called CRISPR.

    Specifically, the nanosensors are designed so that when they encounter a tumor, they shed short sequences of DNA that will eventually end up in the patient’s urine. The urine sample can be analyzed using a paper strip that recognizes a signal activated by a CRISPR enzyme called Cas12a. When a particular DNA “barcode” is present, Cas12a enhances the signal so it appears as a dark strip on the paper test.

    In a study conducted in mice, the scientists showed that a panel of five DNA barcodes could accurately distinguish tumors that first arose in the lungs from tumors formed by colorectal cancer cells that had metastasized. The team also collaborated with other institutions to build a device to distinguish at least 46 DNA barcodes in a single sample.

    The scientists said they are now working on further developing the nanoparticles, with the goal of testing them in humans.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 04/30/2023 – 13:30

  • Democrat Cities Have Biggest Homicide Rate Problem, Study Finds
    Democrat Cities Have Biggest Homicide Rate Problem, Study Finds

    The Democratic Party aggressively promoted the idea of ‘defunding the police’ after George Floyd was killed by a Minneapolis, Minnesota, police officer in 2020, which was supposed to improve public safety. A few years later, a new study found the homicide rate in Democrat cities is on the rise and a sign progressive policies are failing. 

    In a study published by WalletHub, researchers found “homicide rates have risen by an average of roughly 10% in 45 of the most populated U.S. cities between Q1 2021 and Q1 2023, and are still rising.” 

    The cities with the biggest homicide rate problems include Memphis, Tennesse; New Orleans, Louisana; Richmond, Virginia; Washington, DC; and Detroit, Michigan. Democrat mayors lead all five cities. 

    Researchers pointed out that murders were rising faster in Democrat-led cities than Republican-led cities. 

    Separately, Chidike Okeem, an assistant professor at Western New England University, told the NYPost that defunding the police movements directly correlates with the rise in violence. 

    “As a response to the social unrest, some officers have embraced ‘de-policing,’ which is the idea of not engaging in proactive policing practices in order to avoid increased scrutiny and censure. Without pronounced police presence, violence proliferates,” Okeem said.

    A University of Central Missouri Professor, Gregg Etter, went further and blamed no-cash bail as a significant driver in the alarming rise of homicide rates in major cities. 

    “If you have a problem with police use of force in isolated instances, rather than deal with the problem or the problem officers, defund the police. This results in a less-effective police force, increased response times, lower police morale, and an increasing unwillingness by the police to engage in proactive policing,” Etter said.

    And it’s not just homicide rates that are moving higher. Retail thefts and carjackings are soaring. Democrats have yet to take accountability for their failed social justice reforms. As a result, businesses and people are quickly exiting these dangerous cities for safer places. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 04/30/2023 – 13:00

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