- China Launches Military Exercises In South China Sea As Biden Arrives In Asia
China Launches Military Exercises In South China Sea As Biden Arrives In Asia
Authored by Andrew Thornebrooke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
China launched military drills in the contested South China Sea as U.S. President Joe Biden arrived in South Korea to meet with President Yoon Suk-yeol and promote his forthcoming economic plan for the region.
U.S. President Joe Biden boards Air Force One at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland on May 19, 2022, as he travels to South Korea and Japan. (Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images) Biden is currently touring East Asia to develop better relations with the nation’s partners in the Indo-Pacific and drum up support for his Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, which he is expected to announce in Japan on May 23.
The visits with top leaders in South Korea and Japan also underscore the United States’ efforts to work with allies and partners in the region on countering the rising aggressions from Beijing, which administration officials have described as the leading threat to the United States.
China’s Maritime Safety Administration subsequently announced that it would be conducting exercises in the South China Sea through Monday. It said non-Chinese aircraft and vessels would be prohibited from entering the area but gave no further details.
China claims that it has historic rights throughout virtually all of the South China Sea and has conducted a massive campaign to build artificial islands throughout the region to superficially expand its borders. It has also used the islands to stage military equipment.
The U.S. State Department, drawing upon a 2016 ruling by an international court, maintains that there is “no coherent legal basis” to China’s claims in international law. The United States also maintains that it has the right to operate freely in the sea, which constitutes international waters.
Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Taiwan all also lay claim to parts of the South China Sea.
As such, the region has become something of a flashpoint for conflict.
White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan spoke to reporters aboard Air Force One on the way to South Korea, and reiterated that the United States would continue to uphold international access to the region and seek stability in the nearby Taiwan Strait.
“Our view, as we’ve expressed many times, is that we are concerned about peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and the ratcheting up of tensions,” Sullivan said. “And we believe that China is contributing to the ratcheting up of those tensions through provocative military activities around Taiwan and around the Strait.”
“But we’ve been equally clear that our policy towards Taiwan has not changed … we remain committed to supporting peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and to ensuring that there are no unilateral changes to the status quo.”
Sullivan also said that Biden would likely hold another virtual summit with Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping. The two leaders had last met virtually in March, when Biden warned Xi of unspecified consequences if the Chinese regime were to provide material support to Russia in its war efforts.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if, in the coming weeks, President Biden and President Xi speak again,” Sullivan said.
The national security advisor added that the president would be working to build local relationships with leaders in South Korea and Japan to better develop resources for trade infrastructure, and that there would be significant developments in trade and the possibility of rulesetting for the digital economy.
“We think this event on Monday is going to be a big deal and is going to be a significant milestone in U.S. engagement in the Indo-Pacific,” Sullivan said. “And at the end of the President’s first term, I think we will look back and say this was a moment where the U.S. engagement in the Indo-Pacific got kicked into a different gear.”
Tyler Durden
Sat, 05/21/2022 – 23:30 - These Are The Most-Downloaded Apps So Far In 2022
These Are The Most-Downloaded Apps So Far In 2022
Whether they’re providing a service like ride-sharing or acting as a mere source of entertainment, mobile apps have become an integral part of many peoples’ day-to-day lives.
But which apps are most popular among users?
In the graphic below, Visual Capitalist’s Carmen Ang uses data from a recent report by Sensor Tower to show the top 10 most downloaded apps around the world in Q1 2022 from the Google Play and Apple App Store.
Social Reigns Supreme
According to the report, total app downloads reached 36.9 billion in Q1 2022, a 1.4% increase compared to Q1 2021.
A majority of the top 10 most downloaded apps were social media platforms, with Meta and ByteDance owning six of the top 10.
Meta’s four platforms on the list are Instagram, Facebook, WhatsApp, and Messenger, while ByteDance owns TikTok and video-editing platform CapCut.
Just outside the top 10 are Zoom and WhatsApp Business (yet another Meta-owned app).
TikTok’s Winding Road to the Top
In Q1 2021, TikTok exceeded 3.5 billion all-time downloads, becoming the fifth app (and the first non-Meta app) to reach this milestone. This is impressive considering the app has been banned in India as of June 2020. Prior to the ban, India accounted for 30% of TikTok’s downloads.
India’s not the only country that’s banned the use of TikTok. Pakistan has blocked TikTok multiple times because of concerns over “inappropriate” content. However, it’s worth noting that the bans in Pakistan only lasted a few days before being lifted, and currently, Pakistanis are able to access the platform.
Top 10 Highest Grossing Apps
TikTok isn’t just the most downloaded app in the world—it’s also the highest-grossing non-game app, based on Q1 2022 revenue from the App Store and Google Play:
TikTok generated an impressive $821 million in consumer spending in the last quarter. The video-sharing platform was the top-grossing app on the App Store, and the second-highest-grossing on Google Play, coming just after Google One.
While none of Meta’s platforms made it onto the top 10 list for gross revenue, these platforms make a ton of money that doesn’t necessarily flow through app stores. In 2021, Meta generated more than $117.9 billion in revenue, with over 97% of that coming from ads.
Growth’s on the Horizon
The pandemic had a massive impact on the app market.
In 2020, app spending on things like premium access, in-app purchases, and subscriptions surged by 30% year-over-year to reach $111 billion.
And while COVID-19 restrictions are easing in most places around the world, app spending isn’t likely to taper off anytime soon. By 2025, spending is expected to grow to $270 billion.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 05/21/2022 – 23:00 - "Crop Scouts" Scour Midwest Ahead Of Wheat Harvest Amid Menacing Megadrought
“Crop Scouts” Scour Midwest Ahead Of Wheat Harvest Amid Menacing Megadrought
Droughts, flooding, heatwaves, and even war threaten wheat production worldwide, pushing up the price of bread, pizza crust, pastries, and noodles. Just about every major producer is facing some issue, and the latest is in the US, where ‘crop scouts’ have begun to scour arid fields across the Midwestern US.
Bloomberg reports crop scouts from the wheat industry have begun to examine plants in farm fields in Kansas to Oklahoma to Nebraska. Harvest is just a few weeks away, and there are concerns devastating droughts have caused damage in US wheat country.
Some farmers already are writing off losses from parched grains. The US Department of Agriculture expects lower yields in Kansas, the top-growing state for hard red winter wheat, a staple relied on for bread flour. The shortfall is seen by USDA as pushing national production to the smallest since 1963, fueling fear of global food shortages as war in Ukraine and weather challenges elsewhere puts supplies at risk. -Bloomberg
It’s very clear the world is now looking at North America for robust wheat production, and with that, there need to be optimum conditions and strong yields. However, that may not be the case.
“This is a very challenging year with not a lot of good news,” said crop scout Romulo Lollato, a wheat specialist at Kansas State University. He pointed out that minimal rainfall and freezing temperatures in early April could have damaged crop yields.
Aaron Harries, vice president of research and operations for Kansas Wheat, said, “it’s been a weather roller coaster” across the Midwest.
Some scouts see bright spots after recent rains. Though a megadrought continues to consume large swathes of farmland.
Meanwhile, wheat futures in Chicago are soaring, near all-time highs, as traders are pricing in what could be a year of low harvest production.
Last week, the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report published by the USDA showed wheat production in Ukraine is expected to plunge by one-third this season compared with last year.
AGRICULTURAL MARKETS: The USDA just published its first really detailed look at 2022-23 crop year, painting a tight outlook for corn and wheat, with production down. On the other hand, rice will enjoy a larger — and record high — harvest | #OATT #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/MJgXcZRje4
— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) May 12, 2022
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
There are also concerns in Canada, India, and China about harvest declines due to adverse weather conditions. Then there’s the Black Sea region, plagued by war that will plunge crop production this year and next.
The final production numbers for the US won’t be known for months, though crop scouts will have an idea of what wheat supplies could look like after they wrap up their inspections. USDA’s expected to release its estimate based on hundreds of samples on Thursday.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 05/21/2022 – 22:00 - Feds Halt Sales Of Homemade Guns Before August Rule Is Implemented
Feds Halt Sales Of Homemade Guns Before August Rule Is Implemented
Authored by Beth Brelje via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF) has told one of the nation’s largest homemade firearms parts retailers, JSD Supply, to stop selling its products.
President Joe Biden holds up a ghost gun kit during an event in the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington on April 11, 2022. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images) The move comes more than three months before President Joe Biden’s controversial “ghost gun” regulation goes into effect on Aug. 24, 2022.
The new rule, which is expected to be challenged in court, bans the business of manufacturing unserialized “buy-build-shoot” kits that can be purchased without a background check. The so-called ghost guns contain parts that can be assembled into a gun.
These kits will now be considered firearms under the Gun Control Act.
Pennsylvania-based JSD Supply received a letter from ATF dated May 9, 2022, ordering the company to immediately cease and desist the sale of full sets and parts that could be converted into a functioning firearm.
The letter has caused the company to shut down its operation.
“ATF has held that kits which include all components necessary to produce a functional firearm, including the jig or template used to finish the unfinished frame or receiver, the slide assembly, and the necessary components to complete the frame or receiver are themselves properly classified as firearms under the Gun Control Act,” the letter says.
“Specifically, these kits are a weapon that may be readily converted to expel a projectile by the action of an explosive. These kits are firearms under the gun Control Act and have always been firearms pursuant to statute.”
For years, the ATF has provided guidance on the definition of a gun. Those who sell parts such as 80 percent receivers do not need a Federal Firearms License. But the letter shows the ATF has changed its mind and is following the new regulation before it has gone into effect.
“Those engaged in the business of selling these complete kits, as your company does, are in fact engaged in the business of dealing firearms,” the letter says.
“Further, selling the necessary components to produce a functional firearm to the same person through multiple purchases or structure to transactions at different times instead of a single sale is equivalent to selling the complete kit to the customer. That is, the complete set of component parts necessary to create a firearm need not be packaged or sold in a single container or a single transaction in order to be considered a firearm. These piecemeal sales circumvent requirements of the Gun Control Act and are unlawful.”
Part for a homemade gun as pictured in the 2013 ATF Technical Bulletin, in which it was defined as “not a firearm.” A new rule will require a background check to buy a part like this, and special licensing to sell it. (ATF) JSD Supply has filed a case in the U.S. District Court against ATF and the U.S. Department of Justice, seeking an injunction to remain open.
The court filing says the ATF has recognized and expressly sanctioned, the unregulated sale of every single product that JSD Supply offers for sale.
“ATF has specifically and repeatedly explained that firearm parts such as barrels, triggers and springs are not firearms under federal statutory law including the Gun Control Act,” the company’s complaint says. The ATF also has specifically and repeatedly determined that the 80 percent frames and receivers which the company sells are not firearms under the act and are entirely unregulated by the ATF.
“This court’s intervention to protect the firearms industry and gun owners is necessary to reign in a branch of the federal government that is acting without any legal authority, and return the constitutional lawmaking power to the Congress, the only branch of government to which it was entrusted by Article I of the U.S. Constitution,” the complaint says.
This appears to be the first U.S. case of a company receiving such a letter, but another company in Missouri has now been told by the ATF to stop selling their products, according to Gun Owners of America.
“JSD Supply was just the first domino to fall in the ATF’s latest unwarranted action. Frustratingly, we have confirmed at least one additional company forced to halt sales and we expect more to follow,” Erich Pratt, senior vice president of Gun Owners of America (GOA) said in a statement.
“Make no mistake, this is the beginning of a political crusade against homemade firearms. Forcing small businesses across the country to close their doors with no legal authority to do so, is wrong and a blatant abuse of power,” Pratt said.
GOA is preparing a lawsuit challenging the new regulation.
“With a gun there’s only one regulated part, the frame or the receiver, and you do a background check on the frame or the receiver,” Aidan Johnston, GOA director of federal affairs told The Epoch Times. JSD Supply sells, not the regulated frame, but unfinished frames that are 80 percent complete. The company also sells all the other parts for a gun.
“JSD Supply asked the ATF if they could just stop selling the 80 percent frame and continue to sell all the other gun parts, and ATF won’t let them,” Johnston said.
“But what’s really important is not just the other companies that are selling 80 percent receivers and gun parts, but there are hundreds of websites that sell only gun parts. No regulated part from before or after this final rule. And the question is, if I 3D print the frame and then I order a barrel and a trigger from one of those websites that only sells gun parts, is ATF trying to say that that company illegally helped me complete a firearm?”
The answer is unclear. ATF was unavailable for comment.
“In order to engage in the constitutionally protected activities of keeping and bearing firearms, weapons first must be acquired,” the JSD Supply court complaint says.
“It is thus beyond serious debate that the Second Amendment protects the right of individuals to make their own privately made firearms, and thus to acquire the parts and materials with which to do so. The Constitution protects the corresponding right to sell firearm components, magazines, ammunition, and accessories, just as the freedoms of speech and press protect the right to buy and sell newspapers, books, paper, and ink. Indeed, it would not mean much if there was a right to make a firearm, but no ability to purchase the materials necessary to do so.”
JSD Supply did not respond to the Epoch Times.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 05/21/2022 – 21:30 - "No Quick Fix" – Severe Pilot Shortage Reduces Flights, Sends Ticket Prices Soaring
“No Quick Fix” – Severe Pilot Shortage Reduces Flights, Sends Ticket Prices Soaring
A severe pilot shortage in the US slashed flights just as the travel season ramps up, which will cause ticket prices to skyrocket this summer, according to CNBC.
The origins of the shortage began in the early days of the virus pandemic when pilot hiring, training, and licensing came to a stall. Then airlines forced thousands of pilots into early retirement to slash labor costs as travel demand cratered.
Now lawmakers on Capitol Hill are proposing legislation to increase the retirement age for airline pilots from 65 to 67 to extend pilots’ flight time as the industry scrambles for solutions.
United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby told investors during an earnings call in April that the shortage could last for years.
“The pilot shortage for the industry is real, and most airlines are simply not going to be able to realize their capacity plans because there simply aren’t enough pilots, at least not for the next five-plus years,” Kirby said.
The shortage has hit regional carriers the hardest. Phoenix-based Mesa Air Group, which flies for American and United, lost tens of millions of dollars last quarter because of flight reductions due to the lack of pilots.
“We never fathomed attrition levels like this,” said Mesa CEO Jonathan Ornstein. “If we don’t fly our airplanes, we lose money. You saw our quarterly numbers.”
Ornstein said, on average, it takes five months to replace a pilot. He expressed his airline “could use 200 pilots right now.”
Regional carrier Republic Airways, which flies for American, Delta, and United, requested US government aviation authorities to allow pilots with 750 hours, half of the 1,500 required, to fly for the airline.
The shortage has also caused Alaska Airlines and JetBlue Airways to reduce flights.
Kit Darby, a pilot pay consultant and a retired United captain, said airlines are trying to hire more than 12,000 pilots. Training new pilots take years, and demand might overwhelm the number of flights available, ultimately sending ticket prices higher.
Travel demand is already soaring as the latest TSA checkpoint data traveler throughput returns to pre-COVID levels.
The latest CPI data showed the most significant MoM increase for airline fares, at 18.6% in April.
However, new sales data from Adobe Digital Insights suggests consumers spent $1 billion less on airline tickets in April than in March, a sign that rampant airfare inflation could crimp demand this summer.
Darby said the shortage could indicate flights to small metro areas might be reduced or cut entirely. He also said, “there is no quick fix.”
Add travel by plane becoming increasingly more unaffordable. Forget about traveling by car, gasoline prices are at record highs.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 05/21/2022 – 21:00 - Clinton Supporter Who Led Disinformation Board Until Resignation Says She Wasn’t A Partisan Actor
Clinton Supporter Who Led Disinformation Board Until Resignation Says She Wasn’t A Partisan Actor
Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
The woman who led the Biden administration’s Disinformation Governance Board until resigning this week is claiming she was going about her job in a nonpartisan way despite previously declaring publicly her support for Democrat Hillary Clinton.
“To say that I’m just a partisan actor was wildly out of context,” the woman, Nina Jankowicz, said on MSNBC on May 18.
“There are 250,000 employees at the Department of Homeland Security, I was one of them. We all have different political inclinations. And we all checked them at the door,” Jankowicz added on CBS on May 19.
Official portrait of Nina Jankowicz. (@wiczipedia/Twitter) The board was first disclosed by Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas during a congressional hearing in late April. He said it was aimed at preventing false or misleading information from being used in the electoral process ahead of the midterm elections.
The effort quickly drew criticism, in part due to Jankowicz’s past.
Jankowicz not only has donated to Democrat candidates, but volunteered for Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign. She has also repeatedly praised Democrat officials on social media while denigrating Republican ones.
Jankowicz also in the past promoted dubious claims, including the claim that reports on the laptop computer owned by President Joe Biden’s son Hunter Biden were part of a Russian disinformation scheme.
Mayorkas called Jankowicz a “neutral” and “renowned” expert who was “eminently qualified” to lead the board. Jankowicz worked for the Woodrow Wilson Center, a think tank, before joining the administration. But Mayorkas, under questioning, also said he was not aware of all of Jankowicz’s posts, including statements she’d made defending the dossier compiled by ex-British spy Christopher Steele that has not held up under scrutiny.
“I wasn’t adjudicating on what was true or false, but just trying to equip people with information they could use in issues of national security. I don’t think that my political convictions really come into play here,” Jankowicz said on CBS when asked about the criticism of her social media posts.
“I think it’s quite ironic that Republicans would decontextualized a couple of tweets in a career that has been marked by reasonableness, nuance and bipartisanship.”
She also said that after her position became known, she received an onslaught of violent threats.
The Department of Homeland Security, after reports emerged of Jankowicz’s resignation, confirmed that the board’s work would be “paused” while a group reviewed its mission.
The review is being conducted through the Homeland Security Advisory Council, which includes figures that have also spread misleading claims that some have described as disinformation.
A group of House Republicans, meanwhile, introduced a resolution on Thursday that would compel the Biden administration to turn over documents relating to the creation, implementation, and pause of the board.
“While I welcome the news that the board has been paused, the Administration hasn’t provided the American people with any information on how long this pause will last, let alone how the board was created, which specific activities it is intended to conduct, or what prevents the board from violating the Constitution,” Rep. Dave Joyce (R-Ohio) said in a statement. “I’m proud to introduce a resolution of inquiry to demand answers from the Biden Administration on this un-American creation. We cannot allow the federal government to undermine the First Amendment with political tools that referee free speech.”
Tyler Durden
Sat, 05/21/2022 – 20:30 - Fed Mission Accomplished: Real-Time Indicators Show The Labor Market Just Cratered
Fed Mission Accomplished: Real-Time Indicators Show The Labor Market Just Cratered
How much longer will the Fed keep hammering stocks and pushing the market – and the US economy – lower?
That is the question every trader is asking now that the S&P has brushed against a bear market three times in just the past week and threatening to careen lower, especially as it now appears that the Fed has given up on a soft landing, and is willing to gamble everything to contain inflation, even if it means a hard-landing, which according to a SocGen strategist can only happen if rates rise to 4.5% or higher.
The answer is simple: now that Wall Street is convinced that inflation has peaked, both on the sellside (as this Goldman chart shows)…
… and the buyside, with the latest Fund Manager Survey showing a record 68% of respondents expect inflation to drop in coming quarters…
… with GDP on the verge of a technical recession (just one more negative quarter and you’re out), and with housing about to crater…
… only strong employment remains.
In other words, those who want to know when the Fed will capitulated on its market-crushing tightening are exclusively focused on negative inflections in the labor market, because as even Bank of America’s economists wrote last week (the note is available to professional subscribers), the Fed will be hard-pressed to drive inflation down towards its 2% target without raising the unemployment rate meaningfully, which in turn will require a significant downshift in labor demand. In other words, the Fed wants a mild recession (but certainly not a depression) to hammer labor demand and short-circuit the wage-price spiral.
So what data should traders be looking at? Well, job postings are perhaps the best leading indicator of unfilled labor demand. The official government source is the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) from the BLS, which we profiled every month. As of March, the latest available data, there were a record 11.5M total job postings, nearly double the number of unemployed persons.
A drawback of JOLTS is that the data are rather lagged (it tracks one month behind the latest payrolls report) and, in the current environment, trends can change quickly. To get a more accurate answer,Bank of America has used data from Revelio labs on job postings to get a better sense of incremental labor demand in real-time. Unlike JOLTS, Revelio measures new instead of total job postings, which tracks total job postings closely with a correlation of 93%.
So here is the big news: in April, new job postings fell by 2.0M to 6.6M according to Revelio’s data. This is a huge deal as it represents the largest monthly drop in the available history going back to May 2019!
Furthermore, the decline was broad-based with 146 of the 147 industries – virtually everyone – reported by Revelio recording a sequential decline in new postings. Moreover, the share of industries with a Y/Y decline in new postings rose to 22.5%, highest since last Feb.
In short, as BofA economist Stephene Juneau writes, the drop in job postings is a sign that labor demand is beginning to cool, although there will be a distinct lag between the crack seen by such 3rd party data collectors as Revelio and the US Department of Labor (just like a year ago we warned that housing inflation was about to soar by looking not at lagging government housing data but real-time metrics from Apartment List and Zillow, see our June 2021 article “And Now Prices Are Really Soaring: June Rent Jump Is Biggest On Record“).
Furthermore, the gap between new postings and voluntary separations will likely narrow when we get the April data from JOLTS, but it is unlikely to close completely (unless the BLS kitchen sinks the April/May data ahead of the midterms). The upshot is that we will likely need to see new job postings fall much further in order to cool down the labor market, and subsequently wage and price pressures.
Fine, the skeptics will counter, “this is just one indicator. What about other real-time reads of the job market?”
Well, aside from the Revelio data, there are plenty of other signs of moderating labor demand. Consider the following:
- 1) The share of businesses planning to increase employment in the NFIB small business survey has fallen by 8% since December 2021 to 20% in April.
- 2) Challenger Job cuts increased by 6% Y/Y in April, the first annual increase in fifteen months.
- 3) In an ominous return to the “normlacy” that defined the stagnating Obama presidency, the number of workers with multiple jobs continues to pick up. This is the clearest indicator yet that the “Great Resignation” post-covid trends are now actively in retirement.
- 4) Even clearer proof that “unretirements” continue to rise is the latest data from Indeed, which shows that 3.3% of the workers who “retired” a year ago are once again employed.
5.) It’s not just Revelio seeing a drop in job posting. Bank of America’s own analysts (in this case in a note from Sara Senatore) show that job posting growth across restaurant categories decelerated sharply on a sequential basis. Job postings growth slowed most in Beverages – to +23% y/y from +268% in March. For the remaining categories, y/y growth in postings slowed most in Fast Food (-16% y/y vs +126% in Mar), followed by Full Service (-67% y/y vs +13% in Mar) and Fast Casual (-66% y/y vs +7% in Mar). In April, y/y growth in job postings for engineers increased for Beverages & Snacks and Fast Casual while Full Service categories and Fast Food postings growth decreased (the full BofA note is available to pro subs in the usual place) .
Last but not least, there is growing anecdotal evidence that the labor market just hit a brick wall, with the likes of Amazon, Facebook, Walmart, Target, and Netflix all recently giving negative guidance on employment. Indeed, last week, Bank of America’s trading desk called it “the end of the labor shortage” to wit:
“Did co’s double-order people? WMT and AMZN are the 2 biggest private employers… and both have made comments on their calls… on being “overstaffed.”
The desk’s conclusion: “the ‘labor shortage’ narrative officially died in the past week.” And from there to a spike in the unemployment rate and a collapse in wages it’s at most a few months. Which confirms what we (and Morgan Stanley and BofA’s Michael Hartnett) said previously: the recession will begin in the second half of 2022, with the Fed ending its rate hike cycle well ahead of schedule, and proceeding to cuts rates and launch its latest QE some time in early 2023.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 05/21/2022 – 20:00 - Biden's Job Disapproval Rate Among Hispanics Soars To 60%: Poll
Biden’s Job Disapproval Rate Among Hispanics Soars To 60%: Poll
Authored by Rita Li via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Less than half of Hispanic Americans, compared to a result from last year, told pollsters that they like the job President Joe Biden is doing, against the backdrop of the ongoing baby formula shortage, border crisis, skyrocketing inflation, and fuel crisis.
Hispanic voters go to the polls for early voting at the Miami-Dade Government Center in Miami, Florida on Oct. 21, 2004. (G. De Cardenas/Getty Images) Three-fifths or 60 percent of Hispanics disapprove of Biden’s performance, while 26 percent approve and 13 percent said they did not know or had no opinion, according to a Quinnipiac University poll (pdf) published on May 18.
A similar survey from a year ago found that 55 percent of Hispanic voters—more than twice the current rate—approved of Biden, while only 29 percent disapproved.
Making up about 18 percent of the U.S. population, the group has seen a lean conservative trend, according to the study, as almost half of Hispanic registered voters said they would like to see the GOP take control of the Senate, while 36 percent said they hope Democrats would keep control of the chamber.
It also shows that 48 percent of Hispanic voters want to see Republicans win the House of Representatives if the election were under its way, compared to only one-third who wanted Democrats to seize the power.
The survey interviewed 1,586 adults nationwide, including 1,421 registered voters, with a margin of error of 2.6 percentage points.
“Americans give President Joe Biden a negative 35–57 percent job approval rating with 7 percent not offering an opinion,” according to the findings.
The recent findings come as the November midterm elections are fast approaching as the Biden administration wrestles with a series of crises including the domestic economy and national security.
The poll also shows black Americans are losing faith in the administration.
The 63 percent of polled black Americans who currently approve of the president has seen a year-on-year drop from 85 percent in 2021. By contrast, the 28 percent disapproval rate has soared up from 5 percent.
An April poll (pdf) by the Convention of States Action and Trafalgar Group shows that a majority of U.S. voters, including nearly two-thirds of Hispanic voters, believe that the Biden administration should close the southern border until a solution is reached.
Earlier this month, another poll conducted by ABC News/Washington Post found that less than a third of Americans approve of the way that Biden is dealing with the economy, while 94 percent expressed concerns about spiking prices as inflation hits a 40-year high.
White House officials didn’t respond to a request for comment by press time.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 05/21/2022 – 19:30 - Bill Maher Slams Gender Reassignment For Kids, LGBTQ+ Everything
Bill Maher Slams Gender Reassignment For Kids, LGBTQ+ Everything
Bill Maher slammed the relatively new trend of kids coming out as transgender because it’s ‘trendy’ – as simply being gay ‘is not hip enough.’
The “Real Time” host began by noting that before 1946, just 0.08% of the population identified as LGBTQ, which shot up to 2.6% among Baby Boomers, 4.2% with Gen X, 10.5% among Millennials, and 20.8% among Gen Z.
“It wasn’t that long ago that when adults asked children what they wanted to be when they grew up, ‘They meant what profession,'” Maher joked, after asking why it’s off-limits to even ask if it’s strange that the number of Americans identifying as LGBTQ has doubled with each passing generation.
“If we follow this trajectory, we will all be gay in 2054,” Maher continued.
The HBO host also noted a recent claim by the ACLU that the Roe v. Wade controversy is affecting LGBTQ people more than heterosexual couples – saying that while we should always be respectful of people’s lifestyle choices, “Someone needs to say it – not everything’s about you. It’s okay to ask questions about something very new.”
Maher then brought up hormone therapy for children.
“We’re literally experimenting on children,” he said, adding that we have no idea what the long-term effects will be. “but logic tells you there’s going to be problems” including bone density and fertility.
“It’s not a lifestyle decision.”
“Never forget children are impressionable and very, very stupid,” Maher continued. “A boy who thinks he’s a girl maybe is just gay – or whatever ‘Frazier’ was,” adding “being a girl doesn’t mean you have to act like a Kardashian.”
“There are other solutions than ‘hand me the dick saw.’“
“I understand that being trans is different, it’s innate,” the host said. “But kids do have phases. Kids are fluid about everything. If they know at age 8 what they wanted to be, the world would be filled with cowboys and princesses … I wanted to be a pirate. Thank God no one scheduled me for eye removal and peg leg surgery.”
Watch:
Tyler Durden
Sat, 05/21/2022 – 19:00 - Erdogan Tells Finnish & Swedish Leaders To Get "Serious" About Terrorism In Tense Call
Erdogan Tells Finnish & Swedish Leaders To Get “Serious” About Terrorism In Tense Call
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan raised objections directly with the leaders of Finland and Sweden over their twin bids to join the NATO alliance in separate phone calls on Saturday. Both leaders had met with President Joe Biden at the White House two days prior where they attempted to give assurances that they would “commit to Turkey’s security” if admitted to NATO.
In the calls with Finnish President Sauli Niinisto and Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson, Erdogan stressed that they must get serious about dealing the “terrorist” Kurdish Workers’ Party, or PKK. In prior days both the Turkish president and his foreign minister have issued a firm ‘no’ on the possibility of the Scandinavian countries joining the alliance.
The Turkish presidency’s office said Erdogan conveyed to Sweden that Stockholm must take “concrete and serious steps” against the PKK and other linked Kurdish groups. Ankara has long seen them as ‘terrorists’ despite much of the West allying with the Syrian YPG in Syria, which Turkey sees as but an extension of the PKK.
Via Reuters And additionally he told Finland’s Niinisto “that an understanding that ignores terrorist organizations that pose a threat to an ally within NATO is incompatible with the spirit of friendship and alliance,” according to a statement. Both countries were also asked to lift EU arms restrictions to Turkey imposed in 2019.
Turkey’s Daily Sabah summarized the demands laid out in what were clearly tense phone calls as follows:
Ankara expects Stockholm to take serious steps to address its concerns with regards to the terrorist groups, he said, adding that the claim that PKK/YPG terrorists were fighting the Daesh terrorist group, did not reflect reality.
Sweden’s arms restrictions on Turkey was another subject brought up during the conversation. Erdoğan said Turkey’s cross-border military campaigns in northern Syria were a result of a necessity caused by a terrorist threat in the region, and Ankara expects Stockholm to lift the restrictions.
Erdogan had also reportedly called NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg to convey Turkey’s position, to which the NATO chief said the alliance would take the security concerns seriously.
In response to Turkey’s latest days of official protests and amid the diplomatic maneuvering seeking to smooth its concerns, the US Statement Department described that the dispute is not being approached as a “bilateral issue”.
As Reuters reported, “Turkey’s approach to the NATO accession process of Sweden and Finland is not a bilateral issue between Washington and Ankara, the U.S. State Department said on Friday, but added that Washington was speaking with Ankara and it remained confident that the dispute would be overcome.”
Last week Turkey’s foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu conveyed to a meeting of NATO diplomats that majority of Turkish citizens – which is the country that also happens to possess the alliance’s second largest military – are adamantly opposed to Sweden and Finland’s membership. Thus Erdogan’s AK Party government in its attempt to block their paths to NATO is also playing heavily to its domestic base.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 05/21/2022 – 18:00 - US Drawing Up Plans To Sink Russia's Black Sea Fleet: Ukrainian Official
US Drawing Up Plans To Sink Russia’s Black Sea Fleet: Ukrainian Official
Authored by Kyle Anzalone via AntiWar.com,
Shortly after Reuters published an exclusive story that the White House was looking to move advanced anti-ship missiles to Ukraine, an official in Kiev said that the US is making a plan to sink Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.
Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs adviser Anton Gerashchenko tweeted (and later deleted), “The US is preparing a plan to destroy the [Russian] Black Sea Fleet. The effective work of the Ukrainians on [Russian] warships convinced [the US] to prepare a plan to unblock the [Ukrainian] ports. Deliveries of powerful anti-ship weapons are being discussed.”
Image via Naval News Gerashchenko cited the Reuters report on Washington’s effort to ship Harpoon and Naval Strike Missiles to Ukraine. The missiles have a range of up to 300 km and cost $1.5 million each.
Three US officials and two Congressional sources told the outlet the White House was still working out the details for sending the advanced weapons to Ukraine. Logistical issues and the possibility the US would have to remove a launcher from one of its ships to send to Ukraine are current obstacles to completing the transfer.
Responding to a question from Newsweek, the State Department did not deny it was working on a plan to take out the Russian fleet. “As the conflict is changing, so too is our military assistance to deliver the critical capabilities Ukraine needs for today’s fight as Russia’s forces engage in a renewed offensive in eastern Ukraine,” a spokesperson said.
However, the Department of Defense issued a sharp denial of the claims made by the Ukrainians official. “I can tell you definitively that that’s not true,” Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told reporters Thursday afternoon. The Pentagon denial applied only to the Ukrainian official’s assertion the US was helping sink the Black Sea fleet, and did not refer to the proposed anti-ship weapons transfer.
Gerashchenko said the attack would help to open up Ukraine’s ports. Russia currently controls the Black Sea and maintains a blockade. The UN has called for an easing of restrictions in the sea to allow food exports from Ukraine to help alleviate global food shortages.
Moscow has offered a diplomatic solution to the Black Sea standoff. On Thursday, the Kremlin proposed lifting the blockage in exchange for sanctions relief. The Russian Foreign Ministry said the problem goes beyond the blockade and includes Western sanctions restricting fertilizer exports.
“three U.S. officials and two congressional sources said two types of powerful anti-ship missiles, the Harpoon … and the Naval Strike Missile…were in active consideration for either direct shipment to Ukraine, or through a transfer from a European ally” https://t.co/3oMdbLMCL6
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) May 21, 2022
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
“You have to not only appeal to the Russian Federation but also look deeply at the whole complex of reasons that caused the current food crisis. [Sanctions] interfere with normal free trade, encompassing food products including wheat, fertilizers and others,” Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko said.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 05/21/2022 – 17:30 - "We're In A Crisis": American Farmer Warns Of Impending Food Shortages
“We’re In A Crisis”: American Farmer Warns Of Impending Food Shortages
NewsNation’s Leland Vittert asked one American farmer: “How close are we to the next food crisis?”
The answer: “We are in a crisis right now as far as the food chain goes with the farmer in this country,” John Boyd Jr., the President of the National Black Farmers Association, said.
Boyd points out some farmers are unable to plant because of adverse weather conditions. He said farmers in the Northern Plains haven’t been able to get tractors in the fields because of soggy conditions, and the war in Ukraine has knocked out an entire region of food production.
He warned, “We’re going to see a lot of empty shelves and a lot more high food prices.”
In his forty-year career as a farmer, Boyd said he never imagined he would be “paying $5.63 for a gallon of diesel fuel, $900 a ton for fertilizer, and all-time high prices for soybean seeds.” All of the prices he mentioned are at record highs, pressuring farmers’ margins.
He said the American people need to wake up to the crisis in the farming industry, adding, “farming isn’t Republican or Democratic, it’s food, the land is neutral … this is the time the American people need to support the American farmer and put pressure on the Biden administration to put things in place to help farmers.”
He mentioned that banks need to provide emergency funding to farmers to get their crops in the ground. Out-of-control inflation has left some farmers unable to plant because of soaring costs.
Boyd said, “We only have a short window of opportunity to give farmers funding.”
He stated the worst-case scenario is “a lot of shortages” of food that could materialize later this year.
Boyd’s dire warning comes after the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report published by the USDA last week showed global production of corn and wheat is expected to decline.
Watch the full interview here.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 05/21/2022 – 17:00 - Hillary Clinton's Trump/Russia Media Strategy Revealed In Day 4 Of Sussmann Trial
Hillary Clinton’s Trump/Russia Media Strategy Revealed In Day 4 Of Sussmann Trial
Authored by Techno Fog via The Reactionary,
Yesterday morning we saw the continued testimony of former FBI general counsel James Baker and Hillary Clinton Campaign manager Robby Mook. (As we previously observed, Mook had already admitted to being briefed on “general updates concerning” Fusion GPS findings – though he has denied knowing who Fusion GPS was.)
I’m traveling this weekend and can’t do the deepest dive into yesterday’s testimony – including that of the CIA agent in the afternoon session – but here are the highlights from Baker and Mook.
The Baker examination, continued.
Baker testified that Sussman did not notify him that the discredited Trump-Russia Alfa Bank allegations had been shared with the New York Times. (For a refresher, here are the transcript excerpts from his Thursday testimony.)
Q: Did he [Sussman] tell you anything about whether he had a client when he went to The New York Times?
A: I guess the answer to that question is no.
Q: And you don’t know, sir, whether they were his clients for purposes of attempting to get this story placed in The New York Times, do you?
A: That’s fair. I do not know that, that’s correct.
Q: You don’t know whether he was working with the Clinton Campaign to do that, do you?
A: I do not.
The Robby Mook testimony.
Robert Mook, Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign manager, also testified before the jury Friday. In his testimony, he stated that Hillary Clinton personally approved a plan to spread the lie that Trump was colluding with Russia via secret servers to the media. He also admitted to being briefed on the conspiracy.
Q: Okay. In connection with the general focus on Mr. Trump and Russia, did there come a time when you learned of potential links between the Trump organization, Mr. Trump’s business, and a Russian bank called Alfa-bank?
A: I did. Yes, I was briefed on that.
Q: Approximately when were you first briefed on that, if you remember?
A: I honestly can’t recall.
Q: Who participated in the briefing, if you remember?
A: Myself, Marc Elias, Jen Palmieri, Jake Sullivan, John Podesta. There might have been others, but those are the ones I definitely recall being there.
Mook also admitted that the Clinton campaign was focused on Trump’s relationship with Russia before Summer of 2016.
Q: In the Summer of 2016, was Mr. Trump’s relationship with Russia something that the campaign focused on?
A: Yes. I mean, it was frankly something we were focused on before that time. But absolutely.
Mook however did deny that the Clinton campaign directed Sussman to go to the FBI, despite admitting that Clinton approved the Trump-Russia allegations to be shared with the media.
Q: Were you aware that Mr. Sussman went to the FBI in September of 2016 to give them a heads-up about a New York Times story about Trump and Alfa-Bank?
A: No.
Q: Do you have any recollection of anyone talking to you about going to the FBI on behalf of the campaign on the Trump/Alfa-Bank issue?
A: No.
Q: Did you direct Mr. Sussman to go to the FBI on behalf of the campaign?
A: Absolutely not.
Q: Did you authorize Mr. Sussman to go to the FBI on behalf of the campaign?
A: No.
Q: Did anyone else from the campaign, to your knowledge, direct or authorize Mr. Sussman to go to the FBI on behalf of the campaign?
A: To my knowledge, no.
Mook also said the decision to push the debunked Russia conspiracy to the media was made by himself, Sussman, John Podesta, and Palmeri, and that Hillary Clinton agreed with the decision.
Q: And once you learned about it [the Trump-Russia allegations], you started discussing with the campaign whether the campaign should affirmatively push it in the media, right?
A: Correct.
Q: And you had that discussion with Mr. Sullivan?
A: Correct.
Q: With Mr. Podesta?
A: Just to be clear. This is what – I recall those people, correct.
Q: Okay. You had a discussion with Mr. Sullivan?
A: Yes, I recall, yes.
Q: Whether to push it in the media right?
A: Correct.
Q: With Ms. Palmieri?
A: Correct.
Q: With Mr. Podesta?
A: Correct.
Q: But in any event, the decision to provide this to the media was authorized by the campaign, correct?
A: We authorized a staff member of the campaign to provide it to the media.
Regarding Hillary Clinton, Mook said:
Q: Mr. Mook, before the break you had testified that there was a conversation in which you told Ms. Clinton about the proposed plan to provide the Alfa-Bank allegations to the media; is that correct?
A: Correct.
Q: And what was her response?
A: All I remember is that she agreed with the decision.
Some final thoughts: while this trial is about Sussmann’s false statements to the FBI, it’s also more than that.
This is Special Counsel John Durham telling the public the story of the Clinton opposition research machine, and how the campaign, through their lawyers and contractors (Fusion GPS), developed and spread lies to the media to influence the election. It’s the story of Clinton Campaign lawyers to using the FBI to further that strategy of deception.
With that in mind, do not forget the Igor Danchenko case. Is it the case that Charles Dolan, a Hillary Clinton friend and supporter, was coincidentally feeding false information to Christopher Steele’s primary sub source?
And on that thread, what are the odds that another Clinton ally – Alexander Downer – took his “info” to the FBI? Downer’s tip was referenced in the opening of the Alfa Bank-Trump investigation, seen below. (Note that the FBI misrepresents both the Downer tip and Mifsud’s purported statement to George Papadopolous.)
Are we to believe the Clinton Campaign and it’s agents had nothing to do with Dolan and Downer? When it comes to the broader Trump/Russia matter, there are too many Clinton links to ignore. Let’s hope that Durham is unraveling that thread.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 05/21/2022 – 16:30 - Economic Indicators, Led By Mortgage Rates, Are Flashing Red
Economic Indicators, Led By Mortgage Rates, Are Flashing Red
The signs that the U.S. economy is starting to fall apart are rising to the surface, further indicating that a recession is likely on its way.
In addition to both Target and Walmart plunging this past week on earnings reports that missed Wall Street’s expectations, other indicators that the country is heading toward recession are also starting to surface.
For example, American households are taking on “record amounts of debt”, according to BNN Bloomberg, as higher prices make it tougher for the consumer to pay for staples like gasoline and food. Mortgage rates on the rise are also squeezing the budgets of consumers while businesses both big and small grapple with increased raw material costs.
Ethan Harris, head of global economics research at Bank of America, told Bloomberg: “I don’t think you can have a completely benign soft landing of the economy at this point. We’re either going to have a weak economy or a recession.”
The report notes that many economists believe there is enough momentum and demand in the economy to make it through the end of this year without beginning to falter. But the outlook isn’t as rosy for next year.
For example, JPMorgan Chase & Co. chief US economist Michael Feroli said last week that he sees growth falling to 2.4% in the second half of this year before moving to 1% in the second half of 2023. Economists at Goldman Sachs also downgraded their 2023 outlook last week.
Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi thinks things could wind up being much worse: “We put the odds that the economy will suffer a downturn beginning in the next 12 months at one in three with uncomfortable near-even odds of a recession in the next 24 months.”
“You can still have quite a strong labor market if unemployment were to move up a few ticks,” Jerome Powell said last week, while talking about the economy. He also said that engineering a “soft landing” may rely on events outside the control of the Fed.
One major key in helping determine the future, of course, will be whether or not the Fed holds course on interest rates.
The slowdown in the economy is also being helped along by the housing market. Mortgage rates have risen at the fastest clip in nearly four decades, the report notes.
National Association of Home Builders Chairman Jerry Konter said: “Housing leads the business cycle and housing is slowing.”
Doug Duncan, chief economist at Fannie Mae, said he expects a “modest recession” and sees unemployment rising to 4.4% in 2023.
Goldman Sachs’ Jan Hatzius concluded: “Consumer borrowing supports spending in the short term but ultimately is not going to be a sustainable source of big increases in spending. So it builds in a slowdown, sort of down the road.”
And that’s an iceberg we’re heading straight towards…
Tyler Durden
Sat, 05/21/2022 – 16:00 - Japan Nuclear Regulator Greenlights Radiactive Water Release From Fukushima
Japan Nuclear Regulator Greenlights Radiactive Water Release From Fukushima
Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,
The Japanese Nuclear Regulator Authority has given its initial approval to Tepco to start releasing irradiated water from the Fukushima plant that collapsed during a massive earthquake and tsunami in 2011.
Plans were revealed last year to pour the water from Fukushima into the sea after an assessment that would check whether there were any safety issues with such a plan. According to the Nuclear Regulator Authority, there are none. Final approval will be granted in a month after the public has had the opportunity to comment on the issue.
The UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency will also carry out safety reviews of the water release.
There are about a million tons of contaminated water from Fukushima that Tepco, the operator of the nuclear plant, has been looking for ways to dispose of for several years now.
Releasing the water into the ocean has emerged as the most viable solution to the problem despite opposition both from inside Japan and its neighbors.
Despite the absence of viable options, environmental groups and fishing industry organizations are against the release of the liquid into the sea, even with assurances from scientists that the risk of contamination is low.
The water will be first filtered and then diluted to reduce the concentration of radioactive material 40 times, according to some of the reports from last year that were confirmed this year as well. The release is scheduled to begin this year if the Nuclear Regulator Authority gives its final go-ahead to Tepco.
Back in 2018, official calculations by the Nuclear Damage Compensation and Decommissioning Facilitation Corp pegged the cost of decommissioning the Fukushima nuclear power plant at some $75 billion, which was a sum four times larger than the initial estimate of how much it would cost to put Fukushima out of commission.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 05/21/2022 – 15:30 - Tesla Unsecured? Bluetooth Hack Allows Thieves To Steal Vehicle
Tesla Unsecured? Bluetooth Hack Allows Thieves To Steal Vehicle
Tesla vehicles are some of the most sophisticated driving machines in the world. Owners of the futuristic electric cars don’t use keys but rather their smartphone’s Bluetooth or a backup keycard to gain access. One cybersecurity firm found a way to exploit Tesla’s Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) technology, in which they were able to remotely unlock the vehicle without the owner’s smartphone or keycard, according to Reuters.
UK-based NCC Group researcher Sultan Qasim Khan published a video of him standing in a parking lot next to his 2021 Tesla Model Y. He had a small relay device connected to a laptop. The device could replicate his smartphone’s Bluetooth signature that was in the range of the relay connected to the computer (but out of range of the vehicle) to unlock the car and drive off.
Khan has proved car thieves can remotely unlock and steal a Tesla by exploiting the car’s BLE connection — something that might not be easy to fix with a software patch.
“Model 3 and Model Y vehicles are at risk from a vulnerability in the technology, which is powered by Bluetooth, which allows thieves to unlock a Tesla from 25 meters away,” The Telegraph said.
NCC added: “This research illustrates the danger of using technologies for reasons other than their intended purpose, especially when security issues are involved.”
Tesla owners can prevent criminals from gaining access to their cars by possibly turning off the Bluetooth from the smartphone to the vehicle when exiting. Also, there’s another level of authentication called a PIN, in which a four-digit number must be entered into the vehicle’s main center touchscreen.
And it’s not just the most sophisticated electric cars. Newer vehicles are being outfitted with technology that car thieves have found ways to steal remotely, such as using a high-tech Game Boy. Thieves also place Apple AirTags on vehicles to track and then steal later.
As for the Tesla — each car comes with no physical keys — owners don’t have to fret over someone picking their locks but instead worry about high-tech car thieves.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 05/21/2022 – 15:00 - Five Warning Signs The End Of Dollar Hegemony Is Near… Here's What Happens Next
Five Warning Signs The End Of Dollar Hegemony Is Near… Here’s What Happens Next
Authored by Nick Giambruno via InternationalMan.com,
It’s no secret that China and Russia have been stashing away as much gold as possible for many years.
China is the world’s largest producer and buyer of gold. Russia is number two. Most of that gold finds its way into the Russian and Chinese governments’ treasuries.
Russia has over 2,300 tonnes—or nearly 74 million troy ounces—of gold, one of the largest stashes in the world. Nobody knows the exact amount of gold China has, but most observers believe it is even larger than Russia’s stash.
Russia and China’s gold gives them access to an apolitical neutral form of money with no counterparty risk.
Remember, gold has been mankind’s most enduring form of money for over 2,500 years because of unique characteristics that make it suitable to store and exchange value.
Gold is durable, divisible, consistent, convenient, scarce, and most importantly, the “hardest” of all physical commodities.
In other words, gold is the one physical commodity that is the “hardest to produce” (relative to existing stockpiles) and, therefore, the most resistant to inflation. That’s what gives gold its superior monetary properties.
Russia and China can use their gold to engage in international trade and perhaps back the currencies.
That’s why gold represents a genuine monetary alternative to the US dollar, and Russia and China have a lot of it.
Today it’s clear why China and Russia have had an insatiable demand for gold.
They’ve been waiting for the right moment to pull the rug from beneath the US dollar. And now is that moment…
This is a big problem for the US government, which reaps an unfathomable amount of power because the US dollar is the world’s premier reserve currency. It allows the US to print fake money out of thin air and export it to the rest of the world for real goods and services—a privileged racket no other country has.
Russia and China’s gold could form the foundation of a new monetary system outside of the control of the US. Such moves would be the final nail in the coffin of dollar dominance.
Five recent developments are a giant flashing red sign that something big could be imminent.
Warning Sign #1: Russia Sanctions Prove Dollar Reserves “Aren’t Really Money”
In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the US government has launched its most aggressive sanctions campaign ever.
Exceeding even Iran and North Korea, Russia is now the most sanctioned nation in the world.
As part of this, the US government seized the US dollar reserves of the Russian central bank—the accumulated savings of the nation.
It was a stunning illustration of the dollar’s political risk. The US government can seize another sovereign country’s dollar reserves at the flip of a switch.
The Wall Street Journal, in an article titled “If Russian Currency Reserves Aren’t Really Money, the World Is in for a Shock,” noted:
“Sanctions have shown that currency reserves accumulated by central banks can be taken away. With China taking note, this may reshape geopolitics, economic management and even the international role of the U.S. dollar.”
Russian President Putin said the US had defaulted on its obligations and that the dollar is no longer a reliable currency.
The incident has eroded trust in the US dollar as the global reserve currency and catalyzed significant countries to use alternatives in trade and their reserves.
China, India, Iran, and Turkey, among other countries, announced, or already are, doing business with Russia in their local currencies instead of the US dollar. These countries represent a market of over three billion people that no longer need to use the US dollar to trade with one another.
The US government has incentivized almost half of mankind to find alternatives to the dollar by attempting to isolate Russia.
Warning Sign #2: Rubles, Gold, and Bitcoin for Gas, Oil, and Other Commodities
Russia is the world’s largest exporter of natural gas, lumber, wheat, fertilizer, and palladium (a crucial component in cars).
It is the second-largest exporter of oil and aluminum and the third-largest exporter of nickel and coal.
Russia is a major producer and processor of uranium for nuclear power plants. Enriched uranium from Russia and its allies provides electricity to 20% of the homes in the US.
Aside from China, Russia produces more gold than any other country, accounting for more than 10% of global production.
These are just a handful of examples. There are many strategic commodities that Russia dominates.
In short, Russia is not just an oil and gas powerhouse but a commodity superpower.
After the US government seized Russia’s US dollar reserves, Moscow has little use for the US dollar. Moscow does not want to exchange its scarce and valuable commodities for politicized money that its rivals can take away on a whim. Would the US government ever tolerate a situation where the US Treasury held its reserves in rubles in Russia?
The head of the Russian Parliament recently called the US dollar a “candy wrapper” but not the candy itself. In other words, the dollar has the outward appearance of money but is not real money.
That’s why Russia is no longer accepting US dollars (or euros) in exchange for its energy. They are of no use to Russia. So instead, Moscow is demanding payment in rubles.
That’s an urgent problem for Europe, which cannot survive without Russian commodities. The Europeans have no alternative to Russian energy and have no choice but to comply.
European buyers must now first buy rubles with their euros and use them to pay for Russian gas, oil, and other exports.
This is a big reason why the ruble has recovered all of the value it lost in the initial days of the Ukraine invasion and then made further gains.
In addition to rubles, the top Russian energy official said Moscow would also accept gold or Bitcoin in return for its commodities.
“If they want to buy, let them pay either in hard currency—and this is gold for us… you can also trade Bitcoins.”
Here’s the bottom line. US dollars are no longer needed (or wanted) to buy Russian commodities.
Warning Sign #3: The Petrodollar System Flirts With Collapse
Oil is by far the largest and most strategic commodity market.
For the last 50 years, virtually anyone who wanted to import oil needed US dollars to pay for it.
That’s because, in the early ’70s, the US made an agreement to protect Saudi Arabia in exchange for ensuring, among other things, all OPEC producers only accept US dollars for their oil.
Every country needs oil. And if foreign countries need US dollars to buy oil, they have a compelling reason to hold large dollar reserves.
This creates a huge artificial market for US dollars and forces foreigners to soak up many of the new currency units the Fed creates. Naturally, this gives a tremendous boost to the value of the dollar.
The system has helped create a deeper, more liquid market for the dollar and US Treasuries. It also allows the US government to keep interest rates artificially low, thereby financing enormous deficits it otherwise would be unable to.
In short, the petrodollar system has been the bedrock of the US financial system for the past 50 years.
But that’s all about to change… and soon.
After it invaded Ukraine, the US government kicked Russia out of the dollar system and seized hundreds of billions in dollar reserves of the Russian central bank.
Washington has threatened to do the same to China for years. These threats helped ensure that China cracked down on North Korea, didn’t invade Taiwan, and did other things the US wanted.
These threats against China may be a bluff, but if the US government carried them out—as it recently did against Russia—it would be like dropping a financial nuclear bomb on Beijing. Without access to dollars, China would struggle to import oil and engage in international trade. As a result, its economy would come to a grinding halt, an intolerable threat to the Chinese government.
China would rather not depend on an adversary like this. This is one of the main reasons it created an alternative to the petrodollar system.
After years of preparation, the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) launched a crude oil futures contract denominated in Chinese yuan in 2017. Since then, any oil producer can sell its oil for something besides US dollars… in this case, the Chinese yuan.
There’s one big issue, though. Most oil producers don’t want to accumulate a large yuan reserve, and China knows this.
That’s why China has explicitly linked the crude futures contract with the ability to convert yuan into physical gold—without touching China’s official reserves—through gold exchanges in Shanghai (the world’s largest physical gold market) and Hong Kong.
PetroChina and Sinopec, two Chinese oil companies, provide liquidity to the yuan crude futures by being big buyers. So, if any oil producer wants to sell their oil in yuan (and gold indirectly), there will always be a bid.
After years of growth and working out the kinks, the INE yuan oil future contract is now ready for prime time.
And now that the US has banned Russia from the dollar system, there is an urgent need for a credible system capable of handling hundreds of billions worth of oil sales outside of the US dollar and financial system.
The Shanghai International Energy Exchange is that system.
Back to Saudi Arabia…
For nearly 50 years, the Saudis had always insisted anyone wanting their oil would need to pay with US dollars, upholding their end of the petrodollar system.
But that could all change soon…
Remember, China is already the world’s largest oil importer. Moreover, the amount of oil it imports continues to grow as it fuels an economy of over 1.4 billion people (more than 4x larger than the US).
China is Saudi Arabia’s top customer. Beijing buys over 25% of Saudi oil exports and wants to buy more.
The Chinese would rather not have to use the US dollar, the currency of their adversary, to buy an essential commodity.
In this context, The Wall Street Journal recently reported that the Chinese and the Saudis had entered into serious discussions to accept yuan as payment for Saudi oil exports instead of dollars.
The WSJ article claims the Saudis are angry at the US for not supporting it enough in its war against Yemen. They were further dismayed by the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the nuclear negotiations with Iran.
In short, the Saudis don’t think the US is holding up its end of the deal. So they don’t feel like they need to hold up their part.
Even the WSJ admits such a move would be disastrous for the US dollar.
“The Saudi move could chip away at the supremacy of the US dollar in the international financial system, which Washington has relied on for decades to print Treasury bills it uses to finance its budget deficit.”
Here’s the bottom line.
Saudi Arabia—the linchpin of the petrodollar system—is flirting in the open with China about selling its oil in yuan. One way or another—and probably soon—the Chinese will find a way to compel the Saudis to accept the yuan.
The sheer size of the Chinese market makes it impossible for Saudi Arabia—and other oil exporters—to ignore China’s demands to pay in yuan indefinitely. Moreover, using the INE to exchange oil for gold further sweetens the deal for oil exporters.
Sometime soon, there will be a lot of extra dollars floating around suddenly looking for a home now that they are not needed to purchase oil.
It signals an imminent and enormous change for anyone holding US dollars. It would be incredibly foolish to ignore this giant red warning sign.
Warning Sign #4: Out of Control Money Printing and Record Price Increases
In March of 2020, the chair of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, exercised unfathomable power…
At the time, it was the height of the stock market crash amid the COVID hysteria. People were panicking as they watched the market plummet, and they turned to the Fed to do something.
In a matter of days, the Fed created more dollars out of thin air than it had for the US’s nearly 250-year existence. It was an unprecedented amount of money printing that amounted to more than $4 trillion and nearly doubled the US money supply in less than a year.
One trillion dollars is almost an unfathomable amount of money. The human mind has trouble wrapping itself around such figures. Let me try to put it into perspective.
One million seconds ago was about 11 days ago.
One billion seconds ago was 1988.
One trillion seconds ago was 30,000 BC.
For further perspective, the daily economic output of all 331 million people in the US is about $58 billion.
At the push of a button, the Fed was creating more dollars out of thin air than the economic output of the entire country.
The Fed’s actions during the Covid hysteria—which are ongoing—amounted to the biggest monetary explosion that has ever occurred in the US.
When the Fed initiated this program, it assured the American people its actions wouldn’t cause severe price increases. But unfortunately, it didn’t take long to prove that absurd assertion false.
As soon as rising prices became apparent, the mainstream media and Fed claimed that the inflation was only “transitory” and that there was nothing to be worried about.
Of course, they were dead wrong, and they knew it—they were gaslighting.
The truth is that inflation is out of control, and nothing can stop it.
Even according to the government’s own crooked CPI statistics, which understates reality, inflation is rising. That means the actual situation is much worse.
Recently the CPI hit a 40-year high and shows little sign of slowing down.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the CPI exceed its previous highs in the early 1980s as the situation gets out of control.
After all, the money printing going on right now is orders of magnitude greater than it was then.
Warning Sign #5: Fed Chair Admits Dollar Supremacy Is Dead
“It’s possible to have more than one reserve currency.”
These are the recent words of Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve.
It’s a stunning admission from the one person who has the most control over the US dollar, the current world reserve currency.
It would be as ridiculous as Mike Tyson saying that it’s possible to have more than one heavyweight champion.
In other words, the jig is up.
Not even the Chairman of the Federal Reserve can go along with the farce of maintaining the dollar’s supremacy anymore… and neither should you.
Conclusion
It’s clear the US dollar’s days of unchallenged dominance are quickly ending—something even the Fed Chairman openly admits.
To recap, here are the five imminent, flashing red warning signs the end of dollar hegemony is near.
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Warning Sign #1: Russia Sanctions Prove Dollar Reserves “Aren’t Really Money”
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Warning Sign #2: Rubles, Gold, and Bitcoin for Gas, Oil, and Other Commodities
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Warning Sign #3: The Petrodollar System Flirts With Collapse
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Warning Sign #4: Out of Control Money Printing and Record Price Increases
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Warning Sign #5: Fed Chair Admits Dollar Supremacy Is Dead
If we take a step back and zoom out, the Big Picture is clear.
We are likely on the cusp of a historic shift… and what’s coming next could change everything.
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The economic trajectory is troubling. Unfortunately, there’s little any individual can practically do to change the course of these trends in motion. The best you can and should do is to stay informed so that you can protect yourself in the best way possible, and even profit from the situation. That’s precisely why bestselling author Doug Casey and his colleagues just released an urgent new PDF report that explains what could come next and what you can do about it. Click here to download it now.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 05/21/2022 – 14:30 -
- Russian Media Says Head Of Azov In Custody After 2,439 Total Fighters Surrender At Steel Plant
Russian Media Says Head Of Azov In Custody After 2,439 Total Fighters Surrender At Steel Plant
Late Friday Russia’s Defense Ministry announced that the last Ukrainian fighters holed up in the giant Azovstal steelworks plant emerged, days after there were reports that top Azov commanders still holding out.
The ministry said it counted 2,439 defenders had emerged and surrendered over the past few days. The final holdout group that was last to come out was tallied at 531. The Russian military’s now total control over the sprawling plant and city of Mariupol is considered the be its greatest victory over three months of war.
The final 500+ came out Friday, after Azov regiment commander Denys Prokopenko giving the order to stop defending the city. “The higher military command has given the order to save the lives of the soldiers of our garrison and to stop defending the city.” Prokopenko had said in a video posted to Telegram.
The Ukrainian side has presented it as an end to the “combat mission” while Moscow emphasized the Azov militants, who are neo-Nazi in ideology, were defeated and surrendered. Prokopenko those under him to preserve “life and health … and stop defending the city.”
Russia announced that “The territory of the Azovstal metallurgical plant … has been completely liberated.” Further, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu informed President Putin of the city’s complete ‘liberation’.
Crucially, there are Russian and other international press reports saying that the head of Azov is now in Russian military custody: “The Russian Defense Ministry also confirmed the surrender of Denis Prokopenko, the commander of the so-called Azov battalion – a far-right military unit of neo-Nazi volunteers operating in Ukraine as a reserve force of the country’s Armed Forces,” according to the reports.
Center: Azov Commander Denys Prokopenko Though there’s been little in the way of confirmation, Russia’s Channel One correspondent Irina Kuksenkova said that Azov leaders Denys Prokopenko, Sviatoslav Palamar and Serhiy “Volyna” (Ukrainian Marine commander) have now all surrendered.
The Guardian wrote the following of at least one of these high-level commanders:
Pro-Kremlin telegram channels also released a video with Sergei Volynsky, the commander of the 36th Marine Brigade unit, in which he said that his unit has surrendered. The unit was one of the main forces defending the steelworks.
A number of Ukraine war observers have noted that there’s yet to be visual proof or confirmation, including video, of Prokopenko’s arrest by Russian forces. Additionally there’s speculation he may still be in the plant, or seeking to escape past Russian lines.
Whatever your views on Ukraine, the war and the US role: it’s just amazing that the Western press — which spent a full decade in unison calling the Azov Battalion neo-Nazi fanatics — now speak of them in admiring terms and will only say that their Nazism is a “Russian claim.” https://t.co/izx0ssgdyg
— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) May 20, 2022
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Meanwhile, Western mainstream media has remained silent on the fate of the Azov leaders – likely also as few or none of its correspondents are on the ground at Azovstal, and Kiev has yet to confirm whether or not Prokopenko and others are now in Russian detention.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 05/21/2022 – 14:00 - Dem Rep. Joyce Beatty Blames "White Supremacy Replacement Theorist" For Shooting Carried Out By Black Suspect
Dem Rep. Joyce Beatty Blames “White Supremacy Replacement Theorist” For Shooting Carried Out By Black Suspect
Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,
Dem Rep. Joyce Beatty gave a speech with Nancy Pelosi in attendance during which she blamed a shooting at a hair salon in Dallas on a “white supremacist replacement theorist,” the only problem being the gunman was black.
Whoops!
The chairwoman of the Congressional Black Caucus (CBC) referenced the shooting, which took place at a Korean hair salon, during a press conference yesterday.
After stating the incorrect date on which the shooting took place, Beatty tried to spin a false narrative that the attack was a white supremacist hate crime.
“On Monday, three people in a Korean-owned hair salon in Dallas were gunned by yet another White supremacy replacement theorist,” Beatty told the crowd.
“We are sick of the pipeline from racist rhetoric to racist violence,” she added.
One problem with that – the suspect is a black man.
37-year-old Jeremy Smith walked into Hair World Salon on May 11 and opened fire on the 7 people inside. He has been charged with three counts of aggravated assault with a deadly weapon.
The FBI is investigating the shooting as a hate crime because Smith held a grudge against Asians having been involved in a car accident with an Asian male. He was also fired from a job for attacking his Asian boss.
Beatty has so far failed to comment on the issue and the video of the speech is still posted on her official Twitter account.
As we previously highlighted, the ‘great replacement theory’ is a topic that has been given legitimacy by Democrats, including Joe Biden, on numerous occasions.
From Charleston to Pittsburgh to El Paso to Atlanta to Buffalo to Dallas, we are seeing the pipeline from racist rhetoric to racist violence.
The “great replacement” theory is a hateful lie rooted in old school colorism and eugenics.
We must call it out at every opportunity. pic.twitter.com/XQEO38hV8B
— Rep. Joyce Beatty (@RepBeatty) May 19, 2022
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Tyler Durden
Sat, 05/21/2022 – 13:30
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