Today’s News 27th February 2022

• Elite Capture
  Elite Capture

  Authored by Peter Schweizer via The Gatestone Institute,

  • [Elite capture] is a crucial tool of [China’s] success. The idea is simple enough: by tempting another country’s elite with money, access and favors, you move them to see their interests and China’s interests as intertwined or even the same.

  • [Each] of the individuals we discuss would deny their role in helping China gain access to American capital markets, American military and surveillance technology, or American policy making. Each will say they are merely pursuing business opportunities that the Chinese market has offered them, as any goods capitalist should. They may argue the companies they run are truly international…

  • Ray Dalio, who wrote in his 2017 book, which bears the title Principles, of his “personal hero,” Wang Qishan. “Every time I speak with Wang,” Dalio swooned, “I feel like I get closer to cracking the unifying code that unlocks the laws of the universe.” Wang is the second most powerful man in the Chinese Communist Party and known as Xi’s enforcer. The Economist called him “the most feared man in China.” But not to Dalio. Readers learn, on the very next page of that book that at the same time Dalio was trying to start a new hedge fund in China.

  • Nor are they all as obsequious about it as Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg.

  • Almost everything [Apple] sells is manufactured in China, and the iPhone has more than 23 percent of the market for phones in China. Apple has repeatedly been accused of benefiting from the forced labor of Chinese Uyghurs, which the company denies.

  • As the muckraker and novelist Upton Sinclair wrote, “It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”

  While researching how Americans having been getting rich by helping the Chinese Communist Party achieve its outspoken aim of replacing the US as the “world’s No.1 power,” I came across the phrase “elite capture” — their term to describe the actions of influential people in the US towards China.

  

  “Elite capture” can refer to different things, but to the Chinese Communist Party, China’s intelligence apparatus, or those involved in quasi-private business ventures, it is a crucial tool of their success. The idea is simple enough: by tempting another country’s elite with money, access and favors, you move them to see their interests and China’s interests as intertwined or even the same.

  The Chinese are not subtle about this, and they barely try to hide it. They practice it around the world, most notably in Africa in pursuit of their Belt and Road Initiative. But elites in Western democracies have proved to be a soft touch, particularly among non-governmental elites.

  “Red Handed: How American Elites are Helping China Win,” my latest book, centers on this truth and explores how elites in academia, high-finance, sports and entertainment, and the technology sector became apologists for China’s deplorable human rights record, industrial and military espionage, and increasingly aggressive behavior.

  What separates this from ordinary diplomacy or even the time-honored business slogan that “the customer is always right” is the power wielded by those who succumb to the temptation. The book investigates the public activities and statements of some of the most powerful people in the US. From the world of Silicon Valley, we explore Mark Zuckerberg of Facebook, Tim Cook of Apple, and Bill Gates of Microsoft. From the world of Wall Street, we looked at Ray Dalio of Bridgewater, the largest hedge-fund investment company in the world, and Larry Fink of BlackRock. From academia we explored the actions of Harvard and Yale universities. We surveyed the relationship histories of the Bush family, the Trudeau family of Canada, the Pelosi family, and of course, the Biden family.

  Yet, the news each day is full of still other examples. The way China has co-opted all these people and institutions – and others besides – is alarmingly similar, straightforward, and not hard to piece together. In 30 years of investigative reporting, I am used to having to dig through endless layers of shell corporations, intermediaries, bank records and tax filings to reveal these connections. Yet, the connections between the people and institutions we reviewed, and the Chinese government, fairly glowed on the page once we determined to look at the mechanics of corruption through the lens of Chinese capture of American elites. This is one reason I have said this is the scariest investigation I have ever done.

  Pressed to the wall, each of the individuals we discuss would deny their role in helping China gain access to American capital markets, American military and surveillance technology, or American policy making. Each will say they are merely pursuing business opportunities that the Chinese market has offered them, as any goods capitalist should. They may argue the companies they run are truly international corporations and, as such, obligated to take as neutral a stance on American foreign policy as possible.

  And they are not fully wrong about that.

  Not all of them are as brazen about it as the Sri Lanka-born Chamath Palihapitiya, a billionaire venture capitalist and investor who in an interview last week waved away the issue of China’s genocide against its own Uyghur citizens with the dismissive “nobody cares.”

  Nor are they all as obsequious about it as Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg. At a 2015 state dinner at the White House for visiting Chinese President Xi Jinping, the third-richest man in the world squired his ethnically Chinese, seven-months-pregnant wife over to be introduced to Xi and immediately made a strange request. Would Xi give their unborn child his Chinese name? The communist dictator was shocked by the request and politely declined, explaining it would be “too great a responsibility” to give to a total stranger.

  Nor are they as star-struck about it as Ray Dalio, who wrote in his 2017 book, which bears the title Principles, of his “personal hero,” Wang Qishan. “Every time I speak with Wang,” Dalio swooned, “I feel like I get closer to cracking the unifying code that unlocks the laws of the universe.” Wang is the second most powerful man in the Chinese Communist Party and known as Xi’s enforcer. The Economist called him “the most feared man in China.” But not to Dalio. Readers learn, on the very next page of that book that at the same time Dalio was trying to start a new hedge fund in China.

  Apple Computers is another great example. Almost everything the company sells is manufactured in China, and the iPhone has more than 23 percent of the market for phones in China. Apple has repeatedly been accused of benefiting from the forced labor of Chinese Uyghurs, which the company denies. But, as a tech investor told Vanity Fair recently, “If you’re Apple and you’ve spent 20 years building infrastructure in China, you can’t just press a button and move your entire infrastructure to India,” adding, “Rebuilding your supply chain takes 10 to 15 years. Right now, I just don’t think they have a choice.”

  Of course, Apple’s CEO, Tim Cook, was present at an exclusive meeting at Microsoft’s headquarters in Seattle, where tech titans met Xi even before that 2015 state dinner. When Xi entered the room, a thunderstruck Cook turned to a colleague and said, “Did you feel the room shake?”

  For others it happens similarly with commercial opportunities. No one should have been shocked by basketball player LeBron James’s upbraiding another NBA team’s general manager for tweeting about China’s repression of democratic protests in Hong Kong. James earns millions royalties on jerseys and other items bearing his name and likeness in China, but is apparently also expert on foreign affairs, scolding the Houston Rockets’ then-GM Daryl Morey as “either misinformed or not really educated on the situation” regarding Chinese repression of dissent in the territory.

  Yet the Chinese communists are not absolutists about this. There is a common phrase in Mandarin that roughly translates: “A lot of help, with a little badmouth.” The phrase captures that the practical Chinese know their friends will have to criticize China’s actions from time to time. But so long as those friends are advancing China’s interests on the important things, they will deign to overlook that.

  House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was a harsh critic of China’s human rights abuses. In her first term in Congress, she found herself in Tiananmen Square in 1991 and bravely unfurled a banner inscribed, “To those who died for Democracy in China.” Furious Chinese police seized the banner. “I started running,” Pelosi recalled. “And my colleagues, some of them, got a little roughed up. The press got treated worse because they had cameras, and they were detained.”

  She too has recently evolved. And her husband, Paul, has since made millions of dollars in deals with China as a partner investor in Matthews International Capital Management, a pioneer in the Chinese investment market, and through his other ventures. She has, for two years now, blocked efforts by Congress to investigate the origins of the COVID virus. With much of the evidence pointing to the possibility of a lab leak of the virus in Wuhan, Pelosi ordered the Democrats in Congress not to cooperate with any efforts to investigate the matter.

  The behavior, statements and actions of these and many other people we discuss at length in the book, certainly suggest the intertwining of their interests with China’s interests. And those interests are thick enough to block out the humanitarian and national security concerns that China’s rise is built upon.

  As the muckraker and novelist Upton Sinclair wrote, “It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 02/26/2022 – 23:30

• 4 Historical Maps That Explain The USSR
  4 Historical Maps That Explain The USSR

  The eyes of the world are now fixed on the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

  The motivations of Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, are now the biggest unanswered question of this geopolitical event. One prominent line of thinking is that Putin is looking to reclaim the territory lost after the dissolution of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), and the Russian leader’s own words appear to support this claim:

  Ukraine is not just a neighboring country for us. It is an inalienable part of our own history, culture and spiritual space. Since time immemorial, the people living in the south-west of what has historically been Russian land have called themselves Russians.

  The disintegration of our united country was brought about by the historic, strategic mistakes on the part of Bolshevik and Soviet leaders […] the collapse of the historical Russia known as the USSR is on their conscience.

  For anyone born after the 1970s, memories of that era range from hazy to non-existent, so it’s worth answering the question: What was the USSR anyway?

  Below, Visual Capitalist’s Nick Routley uses historical maps from three specific eras to build context for how the USSR was structured, which modern countries were a part of this sprawling country, and how its history relates to Russia’s present day pushes for territorial expansion.

  Let’s dive in.

  The Early Days of the Soviet Union

  The USSR was first born in 1922, in the aftermath of the fallen Russian Empire. A civil war between the Bolshevik Red Army and anti-Bolshevik forces across the region ended with the former coming out victorious. This resulted in the unification of a number of republics to form the Soviet Union.

  After a number of tumultuous years during the reign of Joseph Stalin, which include a devastating famine which killed millions of people, we arrive at our first snapshot in time: the late 1930s.

  

  For more detail, view the full-sized version of this map

  The USSR was set up as a federation of constituent union republics, which were either unitary states, such as Ukraine, or federations, such as Russia.

  Below, we can see how this organizational structure was laid out.

  

  For more detail, view the full-sized version of this diagram

  While nominally a union of equals, in practice the Soviet Union was dominated by the Russian Republic (RSFSR). This massive republic contained most of the country’s economic and political power, as well as the largest population and landmass. As shown below, its borders weren’t vastly different from the modern day Russian Federation.

  

  For more detail, view the full-sized version of this map

  The geopolitical history of the USSR is inexorably bound with territorial disputes with neighboring regions. In the map above, from 1938, we can see that Soviet troops are clashing with Japan on the eastern edge of the country. On the other end, Stalin had annexed half of Poland, the three Baltic States, and portions of Romania, following the pact with Adolf Hitler.

  This sequence of events set the stage for World War II.

  The Soviet Empire

  The USSR achieved victory in WWII, but at a great cost. An estimated 14% of the prewar population perished in the conflict.

  By the end of the 1950s though, the Soviet Union was riding high on a string of impressive achievements on the world stage, from launching the first satellite into space to developing missiles that were a credible threat to American cities. As well, the country’s GDP growth was outpacing its Cold War rival.

  This map is a snapshot of the USSR just prior to the construction of the Berlin Wall in 1962.

  

  For more detail, view the full-sized version of this map

  Above, in orange, we see how much territory the USSR ended up with after the war. This map is especially informative as it lists the populations of the territories at the time. Large portions of Eastern Europe—including more than 22 million people—were rolled behind the iron curtain.

  The Waning Days of the USSR

  After a prolonged period of stagnation, Mikhail Gorbachev attempted to reform the Soviet political and economic system with perestroika, which literally translates to “reconstruction”. This movement began a slow process of democratization that eventually destabilized Communist control through the late 1980s, hastening the collapse of the Soviet Union.

  The map below is a snapshot of the USSR two years prior to its official dissolution in 1991.

  

  For more detail, view the full-sized version of this map

  Many of the republics, shown in various colors above, were already seeing independence movements and unrest by this time, and would eventually declare independence one by one.

  Here’s a list of the major regions that seceded from the USSR:

  

   

  Since these regions seceded with their borders largely intact, a current map of this part of the world doesn’t look too different from the one above.

  That said, even as borders remain static, the war in Ukraine demonstrates that power dynamics in this region are still very much in flux.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 02/26/2022 – 22:55

• New Zealand High Court: Vaccine Mandate Not "Demonstrably Justified", Breach Of Rights
  New Zealand High Court: Vaccine Mandate Not “Demonstrably Justified”, Breach Of Rights

  Authored by Katabella Robert via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  The New Zealand High Court has upheld a challenge to a vaccine mandate for Police and Defence Force staff, stating that it was not a “demonstrably justified” breach of the Bill of Rights.

  

  Justice Francis Cooke was asked by a group of Police and Defence Force personnel to judicially review the vaccine mandate enacted under the COVID-19 Public Health Response Act in December.

  The mandate required all Defence Force personnel and all Police constables, recruits, and authorized officers to receive two doses of the vaccine by March 1.

  But on Jan. 6, three unvaccinated staff who did not wish to receive the shots sought a judicial review of the mandate. They were supported by affidavits from 37 of their colleagues in the same position.

  The group claims that two rights of the New Zealand Bill of Rights Act 1990 had been limited by the mandate: the right to refuse a medical treatment and the right to manifest religious beliefs.

  Part of the group’s religious objections to the mandate were concerns over the fact that “the Pfizer vaccine had at some point been tested on cells that had been derived from a human foetus.”

  According to UCLA Health, COVID-19 vaccines do not contain aborted fetal cells but Johnson & Johnson did use fetal cell lines when developing and producing their vaccine, and Pfizer and Moderna used them to test their vaccines to ensure they work.

  The group claimed that “requiring vaccination by such a vaccine was in conflict with the religious beliefs of some of the affected persons.”

  Cooke, in a judgment (pdf) released on Friday in New Zealand, did not accept some of the applicants’ arguments but agreed that the mandate “is not a reasonable limit on rights that can be demonstrably justified” and set the order aside.

  “I conclude that the Order does not involve a reasonable limit on the applicants’ rights that can be demonstrably justified in a free and democratic society and that it is unlawful,” Cooke said.

  “The order limits the right to be free to refuse medical treatment recognised by the New Zealand Bill of Rights Act (including because of its limitation on people’s right to remain employed), and it limits the right to manifest religious beliefs for those who decline to be vaccinated because the vaccine has been tested on cells derived from a human foetus which is contrary to their religious beliefs,” Cooke said.

  

  However, he pointed out the court’s decision did not affect any other vaccine mandates or any internal vaccination policies of the police or Defence Force.

  “In essence, the order mandating vaccinations for police and NZDF staff was imposed to ensure the continuity of the public services, and to promote public confidence in those services, rather than to stop the spread of COVID-19. Indeed health advice provided to the government was that further mandates were not required to restrict the spread of COVID-19. I am not satisfied that continuity of these services is materially advanced by the order,” he said.

  Cooke also concluded that the mandate affected only a small number of personnel: just 164 unvaccinated personnel in a police workforce of nearly 15,700. For the New Zealand Defence workforce, the mandate affected 115 of its 15,480 staff.

  “Moreover there is no evidence that this number is any different from the number that would have remained unvaccinated and employed had the matter simply been dealt with by the pre-existing internal vaccine policies applied by police and NZDF. Neither is there any hard evidence that this number of personnel materially effects the continuity of NZDF and police services,” the judge wrote.

  The judge also said it was apparent, based on evidence, that the Omicron variant of COVID-19 was highly transmissible and could affect a large number of New Zealanders including police or Defence temporarily but that the termination of jobs arising from the mandate was permanent.

  “Vaccination has a significant beneficial effect in limiting serious illness, hospitalization, and death, including with the Omicron variant. But it was less effective in reducing infection and transmission of Omicron than had been the case with other variants of COVID-19,” the judge wrote.

  However, Cooke stressed that his decision to set aside the order was not for “the purposes of limiting the spread of COVID-19” but for “the continuity of service of police and Defence.”

  “But the order made in the present case is nevertheless unlawful and is set aside,” he wrote.

  The applicants were awarded costs.

  Associate Professor Helen Petousis-Harris, a vaccinologist at the University of Auckland told Stuff NZ that she was disappointed with the decision and that it legally and morally undermines the mandates.

  “It’s really disappointing. These are temporary mandates. They are for the benefit of our whole community. Communities have always depended on our people cooperating and working together – right through time since we camped outside the caves. It’s an essential component of a successful society,” Petousis-Harris said.

  “This isn’t working together. Right in the middle of a pandemic, it’s not in the spirit of trying to keep us all safe.”

  Spokespersons for both Police and NZDF told The New Zealand Herald that terminations of staff who do not get vaccinated will be suspended while the decision is considered by the government.

  The Epoch Times has contacted New Zealand Police and NZDF for comment.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 02/26/2022 – 22:20

• Workers At Starbucks Cafe In Mesa Vote To Unionize In Latest Threat To Corporate Profits
  Workers At Starbucks Cafe In Mesa Vote To Unionize In Latest Threat To Corporate Profits

  A growing number of Starbucks’ corporate-owned stores are launching unionization efforts, emboldened by a handful of stores in upstate New York.

  The latest effort comes from Mesa, Arizona, where workers at a company-owned cafe located on Power Road and Baseline Road voted 25 to three in favor of unionizing under Workers United, a branch of the Service Employees International Union. A second store in Mesa has already filed for a union election. Ballots from the NLRB were sent out Friday afternoon and will have to be received by March 18.

  

  The store is the first Starbucks cafe outside of the Buffalo, New York area to unionize, and the third overall.

  To date, more than 100 Starbucks locations have filed for union elections, all within the last six months and doubling their count in the last month alone after the first victories in Buffalo. These cafes represent a small fraction of Starbucks’ footprint in the US – the company presently counts almost 9K company-owned restaurants across the US.

  The NLRB’s regional director will now have to certify the ballots from the Mesa vote, a process that could take up to a week. After hte count is confirmed, the union will face its next challenge: negotiating a contract with Starbucks. US labor laws do not require that the union and Starbucks reach a collective bargaining agreement. Workers who lose faith in the union can always petition to decertify after one year.

  Starbucks has insisted it will bargain with unions in “good faith”.

  “We are excited and hopeful to start the bargaining process with Starbucks, but we also know that Starbucks is fighting us tooth and nail,” Liz Alanna, a shift supervisor at the Mesa store, said in a statement. “We’re calling on Starbucks to stop their war against the labor movement and work with us, not against us.”

  Jefferies analyst Andy Barish wrote in a Thursday note to clients that unionizing doesn’t appear to be a major financial risk to Starbucks in terms of large hourly wage increases or benefit demands. However, the chain could suffer damage to its reputation if handled improperly, he said.

  “It is hard to imagine this issue turning into a maelstrom of negative PR for SBUX, but it does surely present near-term ‘headline risk’ for the stock, which has been weak of late,” Barish wrote.

  It certainly doesn’t bode well for the company’s operating profit margin, which came in at 18% during Q1 FY2022. Expensive orders with lots of modifications and add-ons inspired by social media platforms like TikTok have helped bolster margins over the past couple of years, but they have also made workers complain about being treated like “coffee-making robots” and fueled the push for unionization.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 02/26/2022 – 21:45

• The Clinton Campaign's Two-Pronged Plan To Create The Trump–Russia Collusion Narrative
  The Clinton Campaign’s Two-Pronged Plan To Create The Trump–Russia Collusion Narrative

  Authored by Jeff Carlson and Hans Mahncke via The Epoch Times,

  In Oct. 2016, Wikileaks released a little-noticed email exchange involving Clinton communications director Jennifer Palmieri and Democratic strategist Joel Johnson. The exchange, which was dated Feb. 26, 2016, revealed the existence of a Clinton campaign Swift Boat project—a political term used for smear campaigns—aimed at then-presidential candidate Donald Trump. At the time, the email was largely ignored but it has recently gained new relevance through disclosures in court filings by special counsel John Durham.

  

  It appears that the Clinton campaign’s plans revolved around two primary prongs directed at Trump. The first and better known element of that project involved Fusion GPS and Trump-dossier author and former MI6 spy Christopher Steele. The other element involves the efforts of Clinton campaign lawyer Michael Sussmann and his use of data exploited by technology executive Rodney Joffe and a team of IT operatives. Last year, Sussmann came to prominence when he was indicted by Durham for lying to the FBI in connection with his role in passing Joffe’s data to the FBI.

  The two-pronged strategy began to take shape in the Spring of 2016, and those parallel plans would ultimately merge together at the end of July 2016, just two days before the FBI opened its investigation into the Trump campaign.

  Trump Swift Boat Project

  On Feb. 26, 2016, Palmieri was asked in an email by former Bill Clinton adviser Joel Johnson, “Who was in charge of the Trump swift boat project?” Palmieri sarcastically replied: “Gee. Thanks, Joel. We thought we could half-ass it. Let’s discuss.”

  It is not known what steps were taken by the Clinton campaign in the two months that followed the email exchange. At the time, Trump had not yet won the Republican nomination. However, by mid-April 2016, it had become increasingly clear that Trump would be Clinton’s opponent in the general election.

  On April 19, 2016, Trump hired Paul Manafort as his convention manager. Manafort, who was known to be a former adviser to Ukraine’s deposed president Viktor Yanukovich, would become Trump’s campaign manager two months later.

  

  Trump’s primary wins and the hiring of Manafort coincided with a decision in late April by the Clinton campaign to hire Fusion GPS, a firm of political operatives run by former Wall Street Journal staffer Glenn Simpson.

  Around this same time, on April 28, 2016, Amy Dacey, CEO of the Democratic National Committee (DNC), alerted Sussmann, who is also a cyber-security specialist, to the possible hack of the DNC’s computer network. In turn, Sussmann contacted Shawn Henry of Crowdstrike, an IT firm specializing in cybersecurity. It is not known why Dacey’s first point of contact was Sussmann and not an IT firm.

  On May 3, 2016, Trump won the Indiana primary and became the presumptive nominee of the Republican Party.

  That same day, Ukrainian-American Democratic operative Alexandra Chalupa emailed the DNC and claimed that she intended to share sensitive info about Paul Manafort “offline” including “a big Trump component…that will hit in [sic] next few weeks.” Manafort would leave the Trump campaign a few months later after The New York Times claimed that Manafort’s name had appeared on a handwritten ledger in Ukraine in connection with secret cash payments. The ledger was later said to have been fabricated.

  Plan Set in Motion Right After Trump Became Presumptive Nominee

  According to court filings from Durham, on May 4, 2016, the day after Trump became the Republican Party’s presumptive nominee, a cyber group working through Sussmann and Joffe began compiling and curating data that would later be used to create the false appearance of a link between the Trump Organization and the Russian Alfa Bank. That alleged link would later be used by the Clinton campaign to push the narrative that Trump had ties to the Kremlin. Notably, the data compilation was completed on July 29, 2016, the same day that Clinton operatives from both prongs of her planned attack on Trump met in Washington.

  In mid-May 2016, shortly after Sussmann’s cyber group started mining data on Trump, Fusion GPS hired Steele to write the Steele dossier. As Simpson later recounted in his book “Crime in Progress,” he “told Steele that Fusion had been investigating Trump for about eight months on behalf of an unnamed client. That work had ended, but a new client had come along that had deep pockets.” That client was the Clinton campaign.

  

  Steele tasked his primary sub-source, Igor Danchenko, to compile derogatory stories about Trump that could be used in the dossier. Danchenko was dispatched to Moscow in mid-June where he spent time gossiping with old friends over drinks. Those friends were then made into unwitting sources for the dossier. These same individuals have since come forward as part of Alfa Bank’s ongoing defamation lawsuit against Simpson and Fusion GPS to testify under oath that they did not have any information on Trump and never spoke to Danchenko about Trump.

  As Durham has disclosed in court filings, the true source for several of the dossier’s stories, including a story about Manafort, was Clinton operative Charles Dolan. Danchenko concealed this fact from the FBI, according to Durham. In Nov. 2021, Durham indicted Danchenko for lying to the FBI about his sources.

  While Dolan, according to Durham, gave Danchenko stories that appeared in the dossier and helped Danchenko obtain a visa (presumably to remain in the United States), not much is known about his wider role in Clinton’s Swift Boat project. Dolan and the Clintons go back many decades, with Dolan having served on Bill Clinton’s presidential exploratory committee, as well as Clinton’s Virginia state chairman in his 1992 and 1996 campaigns. Dolan also served as an adviser to Hillary Clinton’s first presidential run in 2008. Notably, Dolan was a senior consultant for the Russian government from 2006 to 2014.

  Steele’s first dossier report—which not only contained the notorious pee tape allegation, but also seeded the collusion narrative—was issued on June 20, 2016.

  After Steele had compiled his initial reports he began to reach out to the FBI through Michael Gaeta, an FBI agent and assistant legal attaché at the U.S. Embassy in Rome. Gaeta, who was Steele’s FBI handler, had known Steele since 2010. At Steele’s request, the two men met in London on July 5, 2016. In order to make this trip, Gaeta sought permission from Victoria Nuland, then-Assistant Secretary of State. At some point in early July, either Steele or Gaeta passed Steele’s early dossier reports to Nuland. Nuland later said these documents were passed on to both the leadership of the FBI and then-Secretary of State John Kerry.

  Gaeta, who would receive additional reports from Steele in mid-July and August 2016, emailed an FBI supervisor on July 28, 2016, noting that Steele had personally informed him that Steele’s reports may already be circulating at a ‘high level’ in Washington, D.C.”

  The Clinton Campaign Invokes Russian Interference

  On July 24, 2016, Clinton campaign manager Robbie Mook publicly suggested for the first time that Russia was somehow helping Trump. Mook claimed in an interview with CNN’s Jake Tapper that the Russian government was behind the release of a trove of DNC emails. Those emails showed, in part, that senior DNC officials had been undermining Democratic candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders.

  Mook refused to address the Sanders allegations, instead telling Tapper that “experts are now saying the Russians are releasing these emails for the purpose of actually helping Donald Trump.” Mook claimed that “this isn’t my assertion. There are a number of experts that are asserting this. … That is what experts are telling us.” But Mook failed to address who these so-called “experts” might be. Nor did he explain the source of his supposed information.

  

  Two days after Mook had invoked Russia, on July 26, 2016, Clinton won the Democratic presidential nomination. According to documents released by Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe on Oct. 6, 2020, on the same day as her nomination win, Clinton allegedly approved a proposal from “one of her foreign policy advisors” to “vilify Donald Trump by stirring up a scandal claiming interference by Russian security forces”—the Trump–Russia collusion smear. That foreign policy adviser is rumored to be the current national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, who at the time held the title of senior foreign policy adviser for the Clinton campaign.

  Immediately following the alleged approval from Clinton, Steele hastily produced his undated memo 95—written on or about July 27, 2016—which alleged “a well-developed conspiracy of cooperation” between Trump associates and the Kremlin. Steele’s memo, which echoed the basis of the Clinton campaign’s plan, also claimed that an unknown Trump associate had admitted that the Kremlin was behind the release of the DNC emails.

  On July 28, 2016, CIA director John Brennan briefed President Barack Obama on Clinton’s July 26th plan—including her campaign’s intention to tie Trump to Russian election interference “as a means of distracting the public from her use of a private email server.” FBI Director James Comey may also have been at this meeting as Brennan’s now declassified hand-written notes state that “JC” was at this meeting.

  The Two Prongs Converge

  The day after Brennan briefed Obama, the twin prongs of the Clinton campaign’s smear campaign—Sussmann’s work with Joffe and Fusion’s work with Steele—merged. In a meeting that took place in Perkins Coie offices on July 29, 2016, Sussmann and fellow Perkins attorney Marc Elias met with Fusion GPS principals, including owner Glenn Simpson and Steele, according to the Durham indictment.

  According to Durham’s indictment of Sussmann, the timing of this meeting at Perkins coincides perfectly with the completion of Sussmann’s and Joffe’s data compilation on July 29, 2016.

  

  Steele had previously told a British court that Sussmann informed him at this meeting of the Alfa Bank allegations, stating, “I’m very clear is [sic] that the first person that ever mentioned the Trump server issue, Alfa server issue, was Mr. Sussman [sic].” Steele also testified that he was instructed by Fusion GPS co-founder Simpson to include this information in one of his own dossier reports. Steele, who repeatedly wrote tailor-made reports for Fusion GPS, mentioned Alfa Bank in a report on Sept. 14, 2016.

  Following the meeting at Perkins Coie’s offices, Steele prepared a new memo the next day for his dossier, which falsely alleged an eight-year Russian effort to cultivate Trump.

  The close timing of these events, particularly Brennan’s briefing to Obama, are significant because they came only days before the FBI officially opened its Crossfire Hurricane investigation into ties between the Trump campaign and Russia.

  That FBI investigation was allegedly opened on July 31, 2016, after the Australian ambassador in London, Alexander Downer, gave the U.S. embassy a tip about Trump foreign policy adviser George Papadopoulos.

  According to Downer, he and Papadopolous had met in May 2016 when Papadopoulos supposedly made a suggestion of a suggestion that Russia might have derogatory information on Hillary Clinton that might help Trump. That rumor was already known at the time and had been shared by Judge Andrew Napolitano on Fox News on May 9, 2016, the day before Downer met Papadopoulos.

  

  Downer later confirmed in a 2019 interview on Australian TV that Papadopoulos said nothing out of the ordinary. But despite the flimsiness of Papadopoulos’s statements, the FBI used Downer’s info as a pretext to open a formal investigation into the Trump campaign.

  In the weeks that followed the FBI’s opening of their Crossfire Hurricane investigation, CIA Director Brennan would take a number of actions that appear to have been intended to actively reinforce the basic premise behind Clinton’s plan—that Russia was interfering in the election to help Trump.

  Brennan Pushes Trump–Russia Collusion Despite Knowledge of Clinton’s Plans to Smear Trump

  The twin prongs of the attack against Trump had now been merged by the heads of the intelligence community into a single, unified spear that incorporated government agencies and government action.

  One of the first actions from Brennan took place on Aug. 4, 2016, when Brennan suddenly warned Russia’s FSB head Alexander Bortnikov not to engage in U.S. election interference. Bortnikov reportedly strongly denied any Russian involvement but “said he would take Brennan’s concern to Russian President Vladimir Putin.” Brennan later claimed that he “was the first U.S. official to brace Russia on this issue.”

  

  According to Brennan’s May 23, 2017, congressional testimony, he then began a series of briefings to the Congressional Gang of Eight—the majority and minority leaders of each chamber of Congress as well as the chairmen and ranking minority members of the Intelligence Committees. Brennan testified that, “in consultation with the White House, I personally briefed the full details of our understanding of Russian attempts to interfere in the election to congressional leadership.” Brennan said these briefings, which were done individually, rather than in a group setting, took place between Aug. 11 and Sept. 6, 2016.

  The message that Brennan delivered to these members of Congress was remarkably similar to the details outlined in the Clinton campaign’s alleged plan to smear Trump. According to Brennan’s testimony, he told each member of the Gang of Eight that “Russia’s goals were to undermine public faith in the U.S. Democratic process, denigrate Secretary Clinton and harm her electability and potential presidency. And to help President Trump’s election chances.”

  At no point during Brennan’s testimony did he raise the Clinton campaign’s plan to denigrate candidate Trump and no evidence has been presented to indicate that he informed Gang of Eight members of the alleged plan.

  A Convergence of Russia-Collusion Claims

  After receiving his briefing from Brennan, then-Democratic leader Harry Reid sent a letter on Aug. 27, 2016, to FBI Director James Comey claiming that “the evidence of a direct connection between the Russian government and Donald Trump’s campaign continues to mount,” calling for a public investigation into the matter and asking that the investigation be completed before the November presidential election.

  Three days later, on Aug. 30, House Democrats wrote to Comey asking him to investigate Trump-Russia collusion in the context of the purported DNC hacking. Their letter asked Comey to investigate if “connections between Trump campaign officials and Russian interests may have contributed to these attacks in order to interfere with the U.S. presidential election.”

  

  As Democrats moved forward with the publicization of Brennan’s claims, Hillary Clinton publicly accused Russia of interfering in the U.S. election on Sept. 5, 2016, implying that Putin “viewed a victory by Donald J. Trump as a destabilizing event that would weaken the United States and buttress Russian interests.”

  On Sept. 7, 2016, two days after Clinton’s public claims of Russian interference, Brennan’s CIA sent a memo regarding the Clinton campaign’s plan to vilify Trump to FBI Director Comey and the deputy assistant director of the counterintelligence division, Peter Strzok. At the time the CIA memo was sent the FBI’s Crossfire Hurricane was well underway. Rather than open an investigation into the Clinton campaign, the FBI continued undeterred with their investigation of the Trump campaign.

  Brennan’s briefing to Obama and his memo tipping the FBI off to Clinton’s plans appear to be the only times that Brennan raised the issue of Clinton’s plan. As noted earlier, Brennan’s handwritten notes also demonstrate the possibility that Comey was present during Brennan’s July 28 briefing to Obama, but this is not known with certainty.

  Sussmann’s Alfa Bank Allegations

  One week after Brennan’s memo to the FBI, Steele prepared a sequence of three memos all dated Sept. 14, 2016. One of the three memos referenced the Russian Alfa Bank, misspelled as “Alpha” in his memo. On this same day, according to Durham’s indictment, Sussmann met personally with Joffe in the offices of Perkins Coie.

  The following day, Marc Elias exchanged emails with three Clinton advisers—communications director Palmieri, campaign manager Mook, and foreign policy adviser Sullivan—regarding the Alfa Bank allegations. According to Durham’s indictment of Sussmann, this same information had also been recently shared by Sussmann with The New York Times.

  

  Four days later, on Sept. 19, 2016, Sussmann held a private meeting with James Baker, the FBI’s general counsel. Sussmann provided Baker with a large amount of data, including a white paper and several USB sticks, telling Baker that he had been approached by “multiple cyber experts” concerning the Alfa Bank allegations.

  The FBI dismissed the data within a few days. According to emails among Sussmann’s group that were cited by Durham, Joffe was fully aware that anyone with the requisite technical knowledge would dismiss the data as meaningless. One of the tech staffers in Sussmann’s group privately called the secret communications channel allegation “a red herring.” Another participant added that “the only thing that drive[s] us at this point is that we just do not like [Trump].”

  While it is not known why Sussmann and Joffe proceeded with handing over such flimsy data to the FBI, their objective may not have been to start a comprehensive FBI investigation. Instead, they may have simply wanted to give the media a hook by being able to claim that the data was being looked at by the FBI. This would align with the fact that by August 2016, Sussmann and Joffe were liaising with Fusion GPS, which appears to have been the operational means for coordinating the media strategy for the Clinton campaign’s two-pronged attack.

  Sussmann is charged with having lied to the FBI about who his client actually was. He claimed to not represent any client when, in fact, Sussmann was working for the Clinton campaign, a point that Durham was able to prove through billing records.

  Brennan’s ICA Becomes Cornerstone of Media’s Russia Collusion Narrative

  At the same time that Sussmann was meeting with the FBI, Steele was being directed by Fusion GPS to meet with the media—including The New York Times, The Washington Post, and Yahoo News, who were all verbally briefed by Steele on his dossier.

  It was during this period, at Brennan’s urging, that the Intelligence Community began its efforts to build a narrative that Russia was interfering in the 2016 election. On Oct. 7, 2016, the intelligence community issued a joint statement that claimed the Intelligence Community was confident Russia “directed the recent compromises of emails … including from US political organizations.”

  

  Brennan’s actions to firmly establish a narrative of Russian interference would become even more significant as Brennan was about to embark on his creation of the Intelligence Community Assessment (ICA).

  The ICA would become the cornerstone of the false allegation that Trump colluded with Russia.

  The assessment, which was officially commissioned by Obama after the 2016 election—but appears to have begun earlier—was completed by early January 2017. Crucially, a two-page summary of the Steele dossier was attached to the final version of the ICA.

  As soon as the ICA was published, the entire focus of the media’s attention centered on the Steele dossier, which was published by Buzzfeed on the very same day that the media started reporting about the ICA, Jan. 10, 2017.

  The fact that the dossier was included in Brennan’s ICA effectively gave the dossier the credibility it needed for the media to publish stories based on it, including the infamous pee tape story.

  The media had been in possession of the dossier or its stories since at least September 2016 when Steele began briefing reporters. However, aside from a few notable exceptions, the media did not report on Steele’s dossier because they weren’t able to corroborate any of his stories.

  By legitimizing the dossier, the intelligence community effectively ensured that Trump would be saddled with claims of Russia collusion throughout his presidency.

  Within 14 days of the ICA’s publication, on Jan. 24, 2017, Danchenko was interviewed by the FBI and disavowed many of the dossier’s stories. It was at this point that the intelligence community factually knew that the dossier had been made up by Steele and his associates. They already knew that Sussmann’s Alfa Bank claims were false. Yet, they kept this information to themselves. It is through Durham, as well as the efforts of online researchers, that the truth about the Clinton campaign’s two-pronged Swift Boat project is finally emerging.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 02/26/2022 – 21:10

• LA Is Spending Up To $837,000 Per Unit To House The Homeless
  LA Is Spending Up To $837,000 Per Unit To House The Homeless

  Are you wondering why so many people are defecting from places like California in favor of tax havens like Florida? Look no further for your answer, which likely lies in how states are spending their tax money.

  Take Los Angeles, for example. It was reported last week that the city is paying up to $837,000 per housing unit to try and house the homeless.

  It comes as part of a broader $1.2 billion effort to house the homeless, which KTLA reports is “is moving too slowly while costs are spiking”. 

  So far, about 1,200 units have been built since the spending was approved in 2016. An audit issued by city Controller Ron Galperin, however, calls this number “wholly inadequate” in the context of the homeless crisis, KTLA reported. 

  

  Galperin said that the effort “is still unable to meet the demands of the homelessness crisis.” In the meantime, homeless camps have spread into “virtually ever neighborhood” in LA, the report notes. 

  His audit revealed that prices for the building have, in some cases, soared to “staggering heights.”

  “While future plans have not been finalized, building tens of thousands of additional units using the same model will likely cost billions of dollars and will take far too long to match the urgency of the ongoing homeless emergency,” the audit said. 

  But Democratic Mayor Eric Garcetti has defended the program, stating that it is “producing more units than promised, at a lower cost than expected.” He commented that “There are already 1,200 units online providing critical housing and services. And HHH will deliver over 10,300 units of supportive and affordable housing by 2026.”

  As if the $800,000 price tag wasn’t enough, one observer pointed out how the price has mysteriously risen over the last couple years. Must just be inflation…

  Only Los Angeles could spend $500,000… I mean $600,000… I mean $700,000… I mean $800,000 to build a single shelter unit while simultaneously growing the homeless population exponentially. pic.twitter.com/Atka6WQVWW

  — Kevin Dalton (@NextLAMayor) February 25, 2022

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  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 02/26/2022 – 20:35

• White House Asks Congress For $6.4 Billion For Ukraine Crisis
  White House Asks Congress For $6.4 Billion For Ukraine Crisis

  Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com, 

  On Friday, the White House asked Congress for $6.4 billion for military and humanitarian aid for Ukraine and to help US allies in Europe to bolster their security in response to Russia’s attack on Ukraine.

  According to Bloomberg, $2.9 billion will go towards security and humanitarian assistance for Ukraine, the Baltics, Poland, and other regional countries. The remaining $3.5 billion will go to the Pentagon “to respond to the crisis.”

  

  “In a recent conversation with lawmakers, the administration identified the need for additional US humanitarian, security, and economic assistance to Ukraine and Central European partners due to Russia’s unprovoked and unjustified invasion,” a White House Office of Management and Budget official said, according to Reuters.

  The total amount could change as the White House and Congress work it out. Some members of Congress think more money needs to be spent. Sen. Chris Coon (D-DE) said the US might need to spend around $10 billion to respond to Russia’s attack on Ukraine.

  Over the past year, the US has given Ukraine over $650 million in military aid and $52 million in humanitarian assistance. The Pentagon said Friday it wants to send more weapons to Ukraine and is working out ways to do so.

  Ukraine’s defense minister is asking for Javelin anti-tank missiles and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles.

  “We’re continuing to look for ways to support Ukraine to defend themselves,” Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said. “And we’re very actively engaged in those efforts to help them better defend themselves through both lethal and non-lethal assistance.”

  So much for the rhetorical cudgel that nobody in Washington is even considering let alone advocating the deployment of the US military to Ukraine. Here’s one of the media’s 3 or 4 most popular members of Congress advocating that in the most explicit and dangerous way possible: https://t.co/Z0ziFvLnCt

  — Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) February 26, 2022

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  US military aid to Ukraine used to arrive by plane, but the country’s airspace is no longer safe. “The airspace over Ukraine is contested, the Russians don’t have superiority of it, it’s contested,” Kirby said. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 02/26/2022 – 20:00

• Musk's Starlink Service Now Active In Ukraine After Russia Invasion Causes Internet Disruptions
  Musk’s Starlink Service Now Active In Ukraine After Russia Invasion Causes Internet Disruptions

  Update (1700ET): It appears Elon Musk heard the request and has responded:

  Starlink service is now active in Ukraine. More terminals en route.

  — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 26, 2022

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  We wonder if this will get him an invitation to The White House.

  *  *  *

  Ukraine’s Minister of Digital Transformation, Mykhailo Fedorov, asked SpaceX billionaire Elon Musk for Starlink stations and access to satellite internet as Russia continues its third day of incursions. 

  “@elonmusk, while you try to colonize Mars — Russia try to occupy Ukraine! While your rockets successfully land from space — Russian rockets attack Ukrainian civil people! We ask you to provide Ukraine with Starlink stations and to address sane Russians to stand,” Fedorov tweeted on Saturday. 

  @elonmusk, while you try to colonize Mars — Russia try to occupy Ukraine! While your rockets successfully land from space — Russian rockets attack Ukrainian civil people! We ask you to provide Ukraine with Starlink stations and to address sane Russians to stand.

  — Mykhailo Fedorov (@FedorovMykhailo) February 26, 2022

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  The request for next-generation satellite internet comes as Ukraine’s primary internet provider, GigaTrans, reported a widespread outrage on Friday, according to internet blockage observatory NetBlocks.

  “We currently observe national connectivity at 87% of ordinary levels, a figure that reflects service disruptions as well as population flight and the shuttering of homes and businesses since the morning of the 24th.

  “While there is no nation-scale blackout, little is being heard from the worst affected regions, and for others there’s an ever-present fear that connectivity could worsen at any moment, cutting off friends and family,” Alp Toker, director of NetBlocks, told Reuters

  ⚠️ Update: Some connectivity has returned to #Ukraine internet backbone provider GigaTrans but service remains intermittent at present. The incident comes amid fighting around capital city #Kyiv. It is unclear if connectivity will be sustained.

  📰 Report: https://t.co/S0qJQ7CbNv pic.twitter.com/aoByXRMJLg

  — NetBlocks (@netblocks) February 26, 2022

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  What’s remarkable is to see a top Ukrainian official asking the world’s richest man for internet access on Twitter. Musk has yet to respond to the tweet but could be willing to help as he recently sent a team of SpaceX engineers to the tiny Pacific island nation of Tonga to restore internet connectivity after a nearby eruption of a massive volcano severed undersea communications cables.

  Twitter users called on the billionaire to support Ukraine and help restore the country’s internet. However, it remains to be seen if Musk would get directly involved in picking sides. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 02/26/2022 – 19:30

• "Doesn't Really Add Up": Canadian MPs Grill Public Safety Minister On Use Of Emergencies Act
  “Doesn’t Really Add Up”: Canadian MPs Grill Public Safety Minister On Use Of Emergencies Act

  Authored by Noé Chartier via The Epoch Times,

  MPs grilled Public Safety Minister Marco Mendicino on Feb. 25 at a House committee hearing to examine the public order emergency declared by the government, with some focusing on whether the threshold had been met to call a national emergency, and others looking to find out why the Ottawa occupation lasted so long.

  

  Addressing whether the threshold was met to invoke the Emergencies Act on Feb. 14, Conservative MP and public safety critic Raquel Dancho asked Mendicino if “our safety was in jeopardy with the protests in Ottawa?”

  “Well certainly the size, scope, and scale of the illegal blockades at a number of borders and ports of entry, as well as the illegal occupation in Ottawa, met the threshold under the Emergencies Act,” replied Mendicino as he testified before the House of Commons public safety committee.

  Large-scale protests in Ottawa, dubbed the “Freedom Convoy,” along with Canada-U.S. border blockades had occurred across the country in recent weeks to demand the lifting of COVID-19 mandates and restrictions. Most of the blockades were cleared before the government invoked the act, and the one in Emerson, Manitoba, dispersed on its own on Feb. 16, so Dancho focused on the Ottawa protest.

  “I walked to West Block for two weeks past these protests. If there was such a threat to public safety, how could you have allowed members of Parliament to walk by that protest every day?,” asked Dancho.

  

  Families join the Freedom Convoy protest in downtown Ottawa after police distributed arrest notices to truckers and their supporters occupying Wellington St. and the Parliament Hill area on Feb. 16, 2022. (Richard Moore/The Epoch Times)

  ‘Insinuations’

  Dancho also said Mendicino had previously “insinuated” there were links between the protest organizers in Ottawa and several protesters arrested at the Coutts, Alberta, border who have been charged with conspiracy to commit murder.

  “So again, do you believe that there was a threat to public safety in Ottawa?” asked Dancho.

  Without directly addressing his own allegation about the links, Mendicino responded that “those aren’t just my insinuations. Hundreds of charges and arrests have been carried out by law enforcement throughout the course of the illegal blockades—not only in Ottawa, but as well as in Alberta and British Columbia.”

  Pressed again about the evidence of links, Mendicino said those comments related to “a number of public reports.”

  Mendicino said organizers and leaders of the movement have publicly made statements calling for the overthrow of the government with violence and “through the use of bullets.”

  The minister was likely referring to Pat King, who in a video posted online and supposedly dated Dec. 16, 2021, said “the only way this is going to be solved is with bullets.” It’s unclear what “this” refers to in the video.

  The main organizers of the Freedom Convoy had distanced themselves from King and said their movement is peaceful.

  King, who was active in the Ottawa protest, was arrested on Feb. 18 and charged with mischief, counselling to commit mischief, counselling to commit the offence of disobeying a court order, and counselling to obstruct police. He was denied bail on Feb. 25.

  “I just don’t understand how you could be saying, on one hand, there’s all these strong ties and this is a national emergency for public safety, and I walked every day by these protests. It just doesn’t really add up at all,” repeated Dancho.

  While King has expressed extreme views, the Ottawa protest was peaceful throughout, with multiple dance parties and a children’s area with bouncy castles. But Ottawa residents have also complained about noise due to constant honking and also of harassment.

  

  Crowds of protesters demonstrate against COVID-19 mandates and restrictions in downtown Ottawa on Feb. 12, 2022. (Jonathan Ren/The Epoch Times)

  Existing Powers, Additional Powers

  Liberal MP Taleeb Noormohamed asked Mendicino why it took so long for the federal government to intervene, and Mendicino defended his government’s efforts by saying it had sent three batches of RMCP reinforcements.

  Noormohamed also asked RCMP Commissioner Brenda Lucki why her organization did not “go in there and clear everything out on the first day in Ottawa.”

  Lucki responded that the Ottawa Police Service is responsible for the jurisdiction and that if it needs assistance, then under Ontario’s Police Services Act the first request should go to the Ontario Provincial Police.

  NDP MP Alistair MacGregor pressed Mendicino on whether Ottawa Mayor Jim Watson or Ontario Premier Doug Ford had expressly requested that the federal government invoke the Emergencies Act, with both leaders having themselves declared emergencies a few days apart in their respective jurisdictions.

  As Mendicino continued to avoid answering directly, MacGregor told him, “With respect, Minister, I just need a ‘yes’ or ‘no’ please.”

  Mendicino never provided an answer in the end, only saying that Ottawa and Ontario had expressed challenges dealing with the existing authorities on the issue.

  

  Police confront demonstrators protesting against COVID-19 mandates and restrictions in downtown Ottawa on Feb. 18, 2022. (Ed Jones/AFP via Getty Images)

  Dancho also questioned department officials on whether the existing powers would have been sufficient to handle the issue without resorting to declaration of a public order emergency.

  Samantha Maislin Dickson, assistant deputy minister at Justice Canada, said the question is not whether existing laws are available but whether they are effective.

  “And so the determination as I understand that was made, was that the effectiveness of any statute that may have been on the books to potentially deal with it was not available at the time the declaration was issued,” said Dickson.

  Talal Dakalbab, assistant deputy minister at Public Safety Canada, said “law enforcement was very satisfied with the additional powers” granted by the act.

  These included making it illegal for people to participate in a designated assembly, being able to compel the provision of services (in this case this power was used to force reluctant towing companies to remove the trucks), as well as imposing financial measures, which were used to freeze bank accounts without a court order.

  The next steps in reviewing the use of the Emergencies Act will include forming a dedicated parliamentary committee and launching an inquiry into the act’s declaration and the events leading up to its use.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 02/26/2022 – 19:00

• 150,000 Refugees Flee Across Europe As Ukrainian Fighting Intensifies
  150,000 Refugees Flee Across Europe As Ukrainian Fighting Intensifies

  The United Nations estimates 150,000 Ukrainian refugees have crossed into neighboring countries, half of them to Poland, and many to Hungary, Moldova, Romania due to the Russian invasion, and that number could easily be in the millions if the situation worsens. 

  “More than 150,000 Ukrainian refugees have now crossed into neighboring countries, half of them to Poland, and many to Hungary, Moldova, Romania, and beyond,” UN refugee chief Filippo Grandi tweeted on Saturday.

  More than 150,000 Ukrainian refugees have now crossed into neighbouring countries, half of them to Poland, and many to Hungary, Moldova, Romania and beyond.

  Displacement in Ukraine is also growing but the military situation makes it difficult to estimate numbers and provide aid.

  — Filippo Grandi (@FilippoGrandi) February 26, 2022

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  Shabia Mantoo, the spokeswoman of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, told AP News the number of Ukrainian refugees is “changing by the hour” and remains “a very fluid” situation. 

  

  On Thursday, Russian forces began a full-scale invasion of Ukraine to “demilitarize” the country. A barrage of missiles, artillery, and airstrikes across the country, triggered one of the worst security crises in Europe in more than half a century, as a wave of refugees into Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania is underway. 

  

  United Nations agencies forecast as many as four million could flee the country into neighboring countries if the invasion worsens. 

  On Thursday, hours after Russia’s invasion began, we noted that people fled the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, resulting in massive gridlock on the country’s highways. Days later, people are still trying to flee the capital as Russian forces near. 

  #Ukraine #Lviv #ukraine. In the train station hundreds of people wait for some train to runaway to #Przemysl the Polish border.
  Trains from #Kyiv to #poland now stop in #Lviv. only local trains “electrikshna” go to poland…3h waiting already.#UkraineInvasion #UkraineCrisis pic.twitter.com/Wv2V7szHYu

  — Ukraine live (@berojag59060636) February 26, 2022

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  Ukrainians are waiting for the train to Poland pic.twitter.com/uPQPKPP6OF

  — Tanya Kozyreva (@TanyaKozyreva) February 26, 2022

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  “There is a significant movement of the population, but it is also hard to say whether people are moving permanently or for the short-term,” said Irina Saghoyan, the eastern Europe director for Save the Children, which has been on the ground in Ukraine since 2014.

  For now, central Europe is welcoming Ukrainian refugees with open arms, and Poland is expected to accommodate up to a million new ones. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 02/26/2022 – 18:30

• Want To Stick It To Coastal Elites? Use Bitcoin
  Want To Stick It To Coastal Elites? Use Bitcoin

  Authored by Avik Roy via AmericanMind.com,

  The digital money revolution is happening—which side of it are you on?

  

  Aspiring Republican politicians and conservative opinionators love talking in darkened tones about the malevolence of elites. And yet, for all the fingers wagged and pixels rendered, conservatives have largely ignored the most economically significant way in which elites actually have rigged the game in their favor. The widening gap between elites and the rest of us comes down in large part to the highly abnormal way in which the United States has defined money for the last 50 years.

  Our story begins when Richard Nixon—self-styled tribune of the “silent majority”—tore up the Bretton Woods agreement that had linked the value of the U.S. dollar to the price of gold. In 1944, the Allies had all agreed to fix their own currencies’ exchange rates to the U.S. dollar, based on the American promise that the greenback would maintain its peg to the value of 1/35th of an ounce of gold.

  The problem for Nixon was that, by 1971, the rest of the industrialized world held $64 billion worth of claims on the $10 billion of gold that the U.S. actually held. Nixon solved this problem in banana republic fashion, abruptly prohibiting foreign countries from redeeming their dollars for gold and, eventually, abandoning the dollar-to-gold peg altogether.

  For a period of time, this tactic appeared successful. Nixon got reelected in a landslide in 1972. But within eight years, the dollar’s value in gold terms had declined by 95%, and the greenback’s purchasing power, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, had been cut in half.

  WTF Happened?

  Many of the economic trends that conservatives now decry stem directly from Nixon’s abandonment of the Bretton Woods agreement. A colorful website, wtfhappenedin1971.com, compiles a long list of them: most notably, that while the benefits of economic growth were widely shared among all Americans between 1945 and 1971, after the Nixon Shock, they accrued far more to the wealthy.

  James Grant, the eminent financial commentator, describes interest rates as “the most consequential prices in capitalism.” Low interest rates make it cheaper to borrow money. Cheaper borrowing—“easy money” in financial parlance—may seem like it benefits everyone, but it doesn’t. Instead, it particularly benefits the most creditworthy individuals and institutions, those who already have the ability to borrow in large amounts: banks, investment funds, corporations, and the wealthy.

  And so, contrary to conventional wisdom on the Left and some outliers on the Right, the spectacular growth of wealth inequality is not due to “market fundamentalism.” It’s instead due to unprecedented federal interference in the interest rate market, a form of dirigisme that directly follows from the Nixon Shock.

  In a truly free market, interest rates are determined by billions of independent decisions by lenders and borrowers. Interest rates go up when lenders fear that they won’t get their money back, and interest rates go down when lenders worry less about that problem.

  In contemporary America, interest rates are not determined by the market. They are dictated by the Federal Reserve. And the effects on our economy are profound. When the Fed lends money to banks at near-zero interest, those banks then put the money in investable assets, like bonds, stocks, and real estate. Artificially juicing the demand for such assets benefits those who already have them; that is, those with the biggest homes and the largest investment portfolios. It used to be that every middle-class American could afford to own a home. Not anymore, thanks to the run-up in home prices driven by Fed-fueled real estate inflation.

  The primary method by which the Fed controls interest rates is by manipulating the market for Treasury bonds. These bonds are essentially slices of the federal debt; when you purchase a $100 Treasury bond, you are effectively lending the U.S. $100. The lower the bond price, the higher the interest rate, and vice versa.

  Hence, the Fed artificially lowers interest rates by going into the bond market and buying trillions of dollars’ worth of U.S. debt, making it seem like there is great demand to lend money to America, when in fact that demand is declining among outside investors.

  This artificial manipulation of supply and demand by the Fed leads to a critical question: how does the Fed get the money it needs to buy up all the debt issued by the Treasury department? By printing it out of thin air.

  Cheap Debt

  In case I’ve made your head hurt, I will try to summarize in plainer English.

  The U.S. has incurred $30 trillion of debt. The U.S. borrows money by issuing Treasury bonds. Not enough investors believe that lending money to the U.S. yields an attractive return, and therefore, not enough investors are buying Treasury bonds. In a truly free market, that set of circumstances would lead interest rates to rise.

  But if interest rates rise, the government would face higher borrowing costs to finance its debt. And every economically elite American would also face higher borrowing costs, leading to a contraction of markets where financial institutions and wealthy individuals park their excess borrowed cash: the stock market, the venture capital market, the private equity market, the bond market, and the housing market.

  How does this relate back to Nixon and 1971? Because none of this borrowing would be possible if the U.S. dollar were still pegged to gold. Under a gold peg, the Fed wouldn’t be able to artificially increase the quantity of U.S. dollars in circulation without also increasing the quantity of gold it held in reserve.

  For most of the past 50 years, there was little that the average American could do to protect himself from this vicious cycle. If you did the “responsible” thing, living within your means, but didn’t have enough to invest in the stock market, your savings declined in value. Even if you made enough to put money in a 401(k), rules promulgated by the Securities and Exchange Commission restrict the best investment opportunities to “accredited investors”: those with annual incomes over $200,000 or net worths over $1 million.

  The increasing concentration of capital has enabled an important manifestation of cancel culture, in which coastal elites and the government have increasingly gained the capability to deplatform those whose attributes or views do not comport with those of coastal elites. The most recent example of this phenomenon has occurred in Canada, where citizens have been told that their bank accounts will be frozen if they express support for truckers protesting their government’s vaccine mandates.

  Digital Gold

  Bitcoin, analogous in some important ways to gold, has emerged as a forceful challenger to all of these trends.

  To take one point of comparison: like gold, the amount of Bitcoin is finite and fixed. Unlike the U.S. dollar, whose quantity increases every time the Fed snaps its fingers, Bitcoin’s software architecture prevents its circulating supply from ever exceeding 21 million. Hence, over the long term, Bitcoin is inflation-resistant: its purchasing power is actually increasing relative to the dollar. Since Bitcoin came online in 2009, its Sharpe ratio—a measure of volatility-adjusted returns widely used by investors—exceeds that of every other asset class in the world.

  Much as the dollar is divisible into 100 cents, each Bitcoin—worth approximately $38,000 at the time of writing—is divisible into 100 million “satoshis,” making an investment in Bitcoin accessible to anyone with even a few dollars in savings to spare. And because the federal government has classified Bitcoin as “property,” not a “security” under the jurisdiction of the SEC, anyone in any income bracket can own Bitcoin.

  These two features enable ordinary Americans to protect themselves from the trends that make everyday life more expensive for everyone other than the wealthiest. As the U.S. debt skyrockets, and the Fed prints ever-greater amounts of money to fund it, Bitcoin helps people protect their savings from a government-driven erosion of their purchasing power.

  And it’s not just Americans who benefit from Bitcoin. Alex Gladstein of the Human Rights Forum calculates that over 1.4 billion people around the world are living in countries where inflation exceeds 10% per annum, including citizens of Brazil, Turkey, and Argentina.

  Satoshi vs. the Fed

  Bitcoin skeptics commonly complain that if Bitcoin can do all of these things, then surely the government will ban it. This gets us to one of Bitcoin’s most important qualities.

  Bitcoin is uncensorable, meaning that any person with an internet connection can send it to someone else, irrespective of whether or not the government wants them to. Elizabeth Warren and Janet Yellen have complained vigorously about this “problem,” arguing that only criminals would want to trade in a currency that the government doesn’t control.

  But precisely because governments cannot cancel it, Bitcoin enables regular people and political dissidents alike to protect themselves from governments’ economic mismanagement. That is not to say that governments can’t make it hard to use Bitcoin. The U.S. could tax Bitcoin-driven capital gains at a punitive rate, like 80%, driving many investors away from the asset. The government could make it difficult for Americans to exchange their U.S. dollars for Bitcoin, through restrictive banking regulations.

  Most dangerously, some senior officials in the Biden administration and at the Federal Reserve are considering developing a crypto version of the U.S. dollar, called a “central bank digital currency,” that is exactly the opposite of Bitcoin. A CBDC would enable the federal government to wipe out the private banking sector, because every savings and checking account could reside at the Fed. The federal government would gain the direct authority to add or subtract deposits in those accounts, or even shut them down.

  Some people still send handwritten notes and read the print copy of their local newspaper. But in a CBDC world, there won’t be an option to use plain old paper cash. China is rolling out their own CBDC for the Winter Olympics, with the aim of eventually abolishing paper money.

  In other words, the digital monetary revolution unleashed by Nakamoto is here to stay. The only question is whether or not the money of the future will serve the interests of governments and elites, or of ordinary people. Bitcoin is resolutely on the side of the latter.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 02/26/2022 – 18:00

• Russia's Military Announces Bigger "Advance In All Sectors" As Zelensky Vows Ukrainians Will Fight
  Russia’s Military Announces Bigger “Advance In All Sectors” As Zelensky Vows Ukrainians Will Fight

  Update (12:35 ET): There are breaking reports that in the mid-evening hours Kiev time, Russia’s military has received orders to “advance in all sectors,” according to a fresh statement by Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov.

  • GERMANY WORKING ON WAY TO EXCLUDE RUSSIA FROM SWIFT
  • ADVISER TO UKRAINE’S INTERIOR MINISTER SAYS RUSSIAN TROOPS ARE APPROACHING ZAPORIZHZHIYA NUCLEAR POWER PLANT
  • UKRAINE’S ZELENSKIY SAYS AZERBAIJAN AND TURKEY PRESIDENTS PROPSED TO ORGANISE TALKS WITH RUSSIA
  • GERMANY TO SEND UKRAINE STINGER MISSILES, ANTI-TANK WEAPONS

  Western correspondents on the ground have also observed the additional mustering of tank and armored units now continuing to pour across the border into Ukraine. So far a major aerial and ground assault on Kiev appears to have been paused as there was some level of back-and-forth and confusion over possible ceasefire or “surrender” negotiations. 

  Frederik Pleitgen @fpleitgenCNN reports from Russia-Ukraine border that Russia is moving a lot more heavy equipment across the border into Ukraine today than they have in the past couple of days pic.twitter.com/Iu1MZeY1Tg

  — Steve Lookner (@lookner) February 26, 2022

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  Serious gun battle reportedly ongoing on Kyiv’s left bank (on opposite side of river from main city) pic.twitter.com/sYRi5QoGOq

  — Mike Eckel (@Mike_Eckel) February 26, 2022

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  Of the contradictory signals coming out of the earlier possible ‘opening’ of negotiations which never happened, it was stated…

  “[On Friday], after the Kyiv regime declared its readiness for negotiations, active hostilities in the main directions of the operation were suspended,” Ministry of Defence spokesperson Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov said in a statement on Saturday. “After the Ukrainian side abandoned the negotiation process, today all units were ordered to continue their offensive in all directions in accordance with the operation plan.”

  “A Ukrainian presidential adviser denied in the early hours Saturday that Ukraine had refused to negotiate,” CNN noted. Meanwhile more Western allies of Ukraine have stepped up with further pledges to arm Kiev.

  #Ukrainian soldier celebrating his kill on a #Russian tank, using a British donated NLAW. pic.twitter.com/ZAUjlXoWYF

  — Belt_fed (@not_a_pog) February 26, 2022

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  Bloomberg describes of the latest European countries to make pledges… “Promises of aid for Ukraine poured in. U.S. President Joe Biden authorized the State Department to provide $600 million in immediate aid to Ukraine, including $350 million in military funding.”

  .@SecBlinken has authorized the @DeptofDefense to immediately provide Ukraine with further defensive support, including anti-tank and air defense capabilities. #UnitedWithUkraine https://t.co/m3njzFiRh8

  — Ned Price (@StateDeptSpox) February 26, 2022

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  The report continues, “The Netherlands will send 200 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles as soon as possible, in addition to other military aid approved earlier this month. The Czech Republic will send machine guns, sniper rifles, handguns and ammunition on top of 4,000 artillery shells already agreed. Belgium is dispatching fuel and 2,000 small arms, while Slovakia — which shares a border with Ukraine — is sending shells and fuel.”

  

  * * *

  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has remained defiant as his forces still control Kiev over past multiple hours of explosions and fighting on the outskirts of the capital city. “The fate of Ukraine is being decided now,” he had said in a prior social media address. “Special attention is on Kyiv — we should not lose the capital. The enemy will use all the possible forces they have to break our resistance. They will be mean and hard. Tonight they will begin a full scale storm.”

  “I’m here,” he later said in a Saturday morning post standing near the presidential office in Kiev. Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko also on Saturday said that while the “night was difficult” it remains “there are no Russian troops in the capital” – though many parts are now looking like a war zone. Zelensky followed up by saying that Ukraine has “derailed” Russia’s attack plan.

  #Kiev: Literally a war zone. pic.twitter.com/HgFU3zwpjc

  — Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) February 26, 2022

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  “The enemy is trying to break into the city,” Klitschko said, after local officials confirmed at least 35 injured as of 6am local time. And Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba referenced “horrific Russian rocket strikes” while explaining in a social media statement that the “Last time our capital experienced anything like this was in 1941 when it was attacked by Nazi Germany. Ukraine defeated that evil and will defeat this one. Stop Putin. Isolate Russia. Severe all ties. Kick Russia out of everywhere.”

  The Pentagon has said that Russia now has mechanized forces which were sent via Belarus within 20 miles of Kiev, according to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin who earlier briefed lawmakers. The US has continued vowing to send more weapons in support of Ukraine national forces. 

  Russia’s Defense Ministry is currently disputing that it targeted a residential building in Kiev. The attack on the apartment building has been widely reported within the last hours also as shocking video and photographs emerge showing a chunk of multiple floors having been blown out.

  A residential building has been hit in Kiev. Looks bad pic.twitter.com/KNOm8TfK40

  — Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) February 26, 2022

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  Here’s another view of the residential building hit with what appears to be a missile. 

  this video i was talkin bout
  Looks synced with the missile from the Mig #Ukraine https://t.co/u12i9xzVD4 pic.twitter.com/jrNaTMCXsI

  — ₿ ܡܐܪܝܘ 🇱🇧🇦🇪🇬🇧 (@MarioLeb79) February 26, 2022

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  According to Fox News:

  The Russian Ministry of Defense has denied reports that one of its missiles struck a residential building in Kyiv, claiming the damage was caused by a Ukrainian anti-aircraft projectile, Russian state news agencies reported on Saturday, citing a source at the ministry.

  “The information disseminated on social networks about a Russian missile attack on a residential building on Lobanovsky Avenue in Kyiv is not true,” the defense ministry source said, according to TASS and RIA Novosti. “The nature of the damage to the house indicates that an anti-aircraft missile hit it. This is clearly visible on the video.”

  On Friday there was a showdown in the United Nations Security Council. Russia of course vetoed a formal denunciation of the invasion of Ukraine. The real surprise, however, came when the countries of China, India, and the United Arab Emirates abstained from the vote, with the remaining 11 council members voting in favor. 

  #Sumy: I think this is the first documented use of Molotov cocktail used on Russian equipment in #Ukraine.pic.twitter.com/bkeEpgWmu5

  — marqs (@MarQs__) February 26, 2022

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  Though details or confirmation have remained unclear in the ongoing ‘fog of war’ which makes verification difficult, on Friday Ukrainian forces said they downed a Russian transport plane carrying paratroopers…

  🇺🇦⚡️🇷🇺 General Staff of #Ukraine army said they downed a Russian Il-76 transport plane with paratroopers in the Vasilkov area pic.twitter.com/2W7cch3yF6

  — Ali Özkök (@Ozkok_A) February 25, 2022

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  China, India, and UAE represent an outsized chunk of the global economy and their abstention strongly suggests that it won’t be so easy to gain global adherence to a strong Washington and EU-led sanctions regimen. 

  “The world is united against Russia!” Media barely notice that the two most populous nations on earth–India and China–both abstained in the UN Security Council vote condemning Russia.

  — George Szamuely (@GeorgeSzamuely) February 26, 2022

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  Meanwhile, the Friday assault on Kiev may have been even more severe, but it’s since emerged that Putin ordered a pause on the Russian military advance pending negotiations. Moscow then said it resumed the assault as “Kiev refused the talks” – a narrative which is being disputed by Kiev. 

  Civilians in the capital, Kiev, take up arms to defend their country#Ukraine #UkraineUnderAttack #Russia #UkraineRussiaWar pic.twitter.com/LegDKRWziz

  — UKRAINIAN WAR (@ukrainainwar) February 26, 2022

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  Kremlin spokesman Peskov said, “Yesterday, in the light of pending talks with the Ukrainian leadership, the commander-in-chief, the president of Russia, ordered a suspension of the advance of the main group of Russian armed forces in Ukraine.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 02/26/2022 – 17:40

• Masks Still Required For Air Travel Despite CDC's New Guidance
  Masks Still Required For Air Travel Despite CDC’s New Guidance

  Despite Friday’s announcement from the CDC that federal masking guidance was finally being eliminated for the majority of the US (there are still some areas that qualify as “high risk” for COVID, but 35 states have already abandoned their own masking guidance), air travelers will still need to don masks for the duration of their flights – at least for the next three weeks.

  

  A TSA order enforcing mask mandates on commercial airplanes doesn’t expire until March 18, and there’s even a possibility that it could be extended.

  Rules imposed in the early days of the Biden Administration require mask-wearing across all forms of public transportation, including trains, buses and airplanes. But the TSA order applies only to air travel.

  “The mask requirement remains in place and we will continue to assess the duration of the requirement in consultation with CDC,” said TSA spokeswoman Alexa Lopez on Friday.

  In fact, pretty soon, public transportation could be one of the few remaining settings where people are required to mask up. Thanks to the CDC’s decision yesterday, masking mandates will even be dropped in schools.

  Flight attendants and pilots alike will likely be relieved to see the masking mandates dropped, as enforcing them has led to an unprecedented rash of conflict on commercial airplanes as (often intoxicated) passengers pick fights with other passengers, and staff. Incidents where passengers have been restrained in-flight, and even incidents where planes have been rerouted, have skyrocketed.

  The FAA has said the vast majority of these complaints have been mask-related. More than $1 million in fines have been issued by the FAA, and another $400K have been issued by the TSA.

  The guidance the CDC issued Friday is based around a new approach to measuring viral risk, this one based more on hospitalization numbers than overall case numbers, which are becoming increasingly harder to measure as more Americans rely on at-home testing to confirm COVID infection.

  

  Under these new guidelines, only about 28% of the population lives in areas where the agency currently recommends universal masking.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 02/26/2022 – 17:30

• EU, US Agree To Expel "Selected Russian Banks" From SWIFT, Sanction Russian Central Bank
  EU, US Agree To Expel “Selected Russian Banks” From SWIFT, Sanction Russian Central Bank

  (Update 5:10pm ET): In the latest major escalation, late on Saturday European nations together with the US have issued a joint statement in which they announce the following restrictive economic measuresthings:

  1. Commit to ensuring that “selected Russian banks” are removed from the SWIFT messaging system: “This will ensure that these banks are disconnected from the international financial system and harm their ability to operate globally.”
  2. Commit to imposing “restrictive measures that will prevent the Russian Central Bank from deploying its international reserves in ways that undermine the impact of our sanctions.”
  3. Commit to “acting against the people and entities who facilitate the war in Ukraine” by taking measures to limit the sale of citizenship, so called golden passports, that let wealthy Russians connected to the Russian government become citizens
  4. Commit to launching “a transatlantic task force that will ensure the effective implementation of our financial sanctions by identifying and freezing the assets of sanctioned individuals and companies that exist within our jurisdictions.”
  5. Stepping up or coordination against disinformation and other forms of hybrid warfare.

  EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen broke these down further as follows:

  First, we commit to ensuring that a certain number of Russian banks are removed from SWIFT.⁰
  It will stop them from operating worldwide and effectively block Russian exports and imports.

  — Ursula von der Leyen (@vonderleyen) February 26, 2022

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  Second, we will paralyse the assets of Russia’s central bank.

  This will freeze its transactions.

  And it will make it impossible for the Central Bank to liquidate its assets. pic.twitter.com/8H9eWkNCW9

  — Ursula von der Leyen (@vonderleyen) February 26, 2022

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  And finally, we will work to prohibit Russian oligarchs from using their financial assets on our markets.

  Putin embarked on a path aiming to destroy Ukraine.

  But what he is also doing, in fact, is destroying the future of his own country. pic.twitter.com/bcygxFjeyG

  — Ursula von der Leyen (@vonderleyen) February 26, 2022

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  The full statement can be found here. It wasn’t immediately clear which are the “selected Russian banks” or what “restrictive measures” will be taken against the central bank. It also does not detail whether oil and gas payments will stop (according to Bloomberg’s in house energy expect Javier Blas, the answer is no).

  BREAKING: EU, US, UK and Canada announce that “selected” Russian banks will be disconnected from the SWIFT banking system. The statement doesn’t indicate names of banks, or whether this will stop oil and gas payments (my guess is payments will continue) #OOTT #ONGT #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/IngAC9O8j3

  — Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) February 26, 2022

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  Furthermore, as Blas also notes, the German government has said that the ban only affects the Russian banks that were *already sanctioned* a few days ago, in other words, it is toothless as it merely hits banks that have already been sanctioned by other measures. It also means that the SWIFT measure is being taken merely to placate populist anger at no SWIFT measures.

  UPDATE: The German government says that the ban only affects the Russian banks that were **already sanctioned** a few days ago! (which are big important banks, but obviously already under sanctions) https://t.co/10S2JD7Wsc

  — Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) February 26, 2022

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  It also means that the only impactful measure is the sanctioning of the Russian central bank, which however has likely anticipated this eventuality and has built up a sufficient war chest to withstand even the harshest sanctions, either on its own or with the help of Beijing. Of course, this may come as a surprise which is the hope of the White House, which has stated that “having lost the support of the Russian Central Bank due to the sanctions imposed on it, the ruble will fall into free fall.“

  White House: The US expects that, having lost the support of the Russian Central Bank due to the sanctions imposed on it, the ruble will fall into free fall

  — Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) February 26, 2022

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  “Sanctions against the central bank are the last step,” Oleg Vyugin, a veteran Russian banker and formerly a first deputy chairman at the central bank, told Bloomberg. “It’s a formula tried in Iran, which initially results in the deepest decline in the economy, production, household incomes. And then a country begins to adapt, create its own settlements with those that agree to cooperate.”

  As Bloomberg further notes, full blocking sanctions against some Russian banks should already choke off their ability to conduct dollar payments with U.S. counterparts even if they retain access to the global messaging service.

  Banks can also resort to alternative systems and even communicate via email to send payment instructions, said Julia Friedlander, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.

  Still, “it’s like a kick in the shins,” she said. “Transactions with Russia would be slower and more expensive. A sudden cut-off will also hold a lot of current assets in limbo, for corporations and banks.”

  As for specific individuals being targeted, the Biden administration has reportedly announced a Transatlantic task force to “hunt down and freeze the assets” of Russian companies and oligarchs — including “yachts, mansions, and any other ill-gotten gains that we can find and freeze.”

  In response to these measures, Russia will need to address the population to ensure financial stability and lack of bank runs on Monday as the alternative could have devastating consequences for the Russian economy. Also, expect money-alternatives such as gold and bitcoin, to move higher as Russians scramble to reallocate their savings.

  * * *

  (Update 4:15pm ET): EU ministers together with the US will meet at 6pm on Sunday to draft potentially drastic new sanctions on Russia that could cripple its economy and financial system after initial penalties failed to deter President Vladimir Putin from stepping up the invasion of Ukraine. As Josep Fontelles, the EU’s chief for Security Policy tweeted, a virtual meeting of EU foreign minister will I discuss a package of emergency assistance for the Ukrainian armed forces, to support them in their heroic fight.

  I am convening a virtual meeting of EU Foreign Ministers tomorrow at 18.00 to adopt further measures in support of #Ukraine, against aggression by #Russia.

  I will propose a package of emergency assistance for the Ukrainian armed forces, to support them in their heroic fight.

  — Josep Borrell Fontelles (@JosepBorrellF) February 26, 2022

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  As Bloomberg adds, a meeting of European Union foreign affairs ministers on Sunday will mandate that work begin to cut Russia off from the SWIFT messaging system, after Germany’s government, initially wary of expelling Russia from the network, said it’s looking into ways to achieve a “targeted and functional restriction” of Russia (see below).

  Germany is “working flat out on how to limit the collateral damage of decoupling from SWIFT in such a way that it affects the right people,” Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck said in a statement. The U.S. is considering a similar move. And French President Emmanuel Macron has decided to increase economic sanctions, including action on SWIFT, against Russia in coordination with EU allies and the U.S., a senior Elysee official said.

  Separately, the U.S. is also weighing sanctions on Russia’s central bank, a move which could have devastating consequences for Russia.

  “Sanctioning Russia’s central bank is likely to have a dramatic effect on the Russian economy and its banking system, similar to what we saw in 1991,” said Elina Ribakova, deputy chief economist for the Institute of International Finance. “This would likely lead to massive bank runs and dollarization, with a sharp sell-off, drain on reserves — and, possibly, a full-on collapse of Russia’s financial system.”

  It would likely mean a run on gold and/or cryptos which could soar as billions in savings are converted into a currency that can not be suspended with the flick of a switch.

  The follow-on impact from SWIFT Action, if put forth.

  1. Counterparty risk – other banks in Europe with large exposure to Russian Banks.

  2. Gold – Crypto demand

  *Soc Gen was trading tighter than HSBC this summer, now meaningfully wider. https://t.co/8xMpXi4n8Q pic.twitter.com/UKUudXBHg3

  — Lawrence McDonald (@Convertbond) February 26, 2022

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  * * *

  Earlier:

  Following a full-court press by western nations, the handful of European holdouts – those most reliant on Russian energy supplies and continued Russian capital flows, such as Germany, Hungary, Italy and Cyprus – who have been adverse to expelling Russia from the SWIFT electronic payment-messaging system, are one by one folding on their objections.

  Overnight, Italy joined the growing consensus seeking to kick Russia out of the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication global banking system to punish it for the invasion of Ukraine as the European Union weighs up the impact of such an action. Also on Saturday, Poland’s prime minister said he had spoken again with his Hungarian counterpart, Viktor Orban, who had assured him of Budapest’s support for far-reaching sanctions against Russia.

  “I talked today again with Prime Minister of Hungary V. (Victor – PAP) Orban. Once again he assured me of support for far-reaching sanctions directed towards Russia. Also including blocking the SWIFT system,” Mateusz Morawiecki wrote on Twitter.

  Rozmawiałem dzisiaj ponownie z premierem Węgier V. Orbanem. I po raz kolejny zapewnił mnie o poparciu dla daleko idących sankcji skierowanych wobec Rosji. W tym także o zablokowaniu systemu SWIFT.

  — Mateusz Morawiecki (@MorawieckiM) February 26, 2022

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  Deputy Foreign Minister Pawel Jabłoński also said on Saturday he had spoken to Hungarian Ambassador Orsolya Zsuzsanna Kovacs and that “Hungary will not block any sanctions against Russia, also including concerning the SWIFT system.”

  Meanwhile, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on Saturday that Cyprus, which it was thought may have held out against the move, had confirmed it would not block the decision to withdraw Russia from SWIFT.

  We did it. Cyprus confirmed it will not block the decision to ban Russia from SWIFT. Ukrainian diplomacy keeps working 24/7 to achieve important decisions and protect Ukraine from Russian invaders.

  — Dmytro Kuleba (@DmytroKuleba) February 26, 2022

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  Finally, Bloomberg reports that Germany has “upended years of policy” and agreed to supply weapons to Kyiv and “look into ways” to shut out Russia from the SWIFT financial messaging system, which however is still a long way away from agreeing to expel Russia.

  The German government said in a statement Saturday that it has agreed to the supply of 400 German-made rocket propelled grenades to Ukraine via the Netherlands, along with 14 armored personnel carriers, as well as 1000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger missiles. It will also supply 10,000 tonnes of fuel via Poland. Further supplies to Ukraine are currently being considered, it said.

  The Russian invasion marks a turning point. It is our duty to support Ukraine to the best of our ability in defending against Putin’s invading army. That is why we are delivering 1000 anti-tank weapons and 500 #Stinger missiles to our friends in #Ukraine.

  — Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz (@Bundeskanzler) February 26, 2022

  “After the shameless attack by Russia, Ukraine must be able to defend itself,” German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and Vice Chancellor Robert Habecksaid in the emailed statement. “It has an inalienable right to self-defense.”

  At the same time, the government “is working flat out on how to limit the collateral damage of decoupling from SWIFT in such a way that it affects the right people,” they said. “What we need is a targeted and functional restriction of SWIFT.”

  The German statement indicates that Europe’s most important nation, and top importer of Russian gas…

  

  … is still not on the same page as most of its other European peers realizing that an overnight cutoff of Russian gas (something which a SWIFT expulsion would spark) would lead to a crippling hit to the German economy, and instead is seeking a targeted SWIFT cutoff, which course is impossible for the “all or nothing” system. As for the well-known reasons behind Germany’s opposition Erik Meyersson, an economist at Svenska Handelsbanken, put it best: “The EU isn’t on board with removing Russia from SWIFT for one thing because the EU isn’t on board with letting go of Russian energy.”

  In effect, the latest German statement is hardly surprising in light of what Germany’s finance minister said on Friday afternoon when he shocked more than a few marketwatchers by saying that ‘we are open to cutting Russia off SWIFT’ with a German government advisor telling RND that “banning Russia from SWIFT is manageable.”

  And yet, despite the jawboning Germany is still unwilling (and unable) to pull the plug.

  As a reminder, The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication is the financial-messaging infrastructure that links the world’s banks. The Belgium-based system is run by its member banks and handles millions of daily payment instructions across more than 200 countries and territories and 11,000 financial institutions. Iran and North Korea are already cut off from it, although that has not stopped China from buying millions of barrels of Iranian oil despite US sanctions.

  

  Jumping the shark a but early, Ukraine president Zelensky said he was “grateful to everyone for the decision to cut off Russia from SWIFT”, even though such a decision has not been made (at least not yet).

  Others followed suit, such as hedge fund billionaire Bill Ackman, who said in a tweet on Saturday that any SWIFT action would likely result in a quick bank run in Russia:

  “I wouldn’t want to keep money in a bank that can’t access the SWIFT system. Once a bank can’t transfer or receive funds from other banks, its solvency can be at risk. If I were Russian, I would take my money out now. Bank runs could begin in Russia on Monday.”

  I wouldn’t want to keep money in a bank that can’t access the SWIFT system. Once a bank can’t transfer or receive funds from other banks, its solvency can be at risk. If I were Russian, I would take my money out now. Bank runs could begin in Russia on Monday. #StandWithUkraine

  — Bill Ackman (@BillAckman) February 26, 2022

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  As we reported on Friday, Goldman Sachs’ Allison Nathan asked the question on everyone’s lips: “The removal of Russia from SWIFT – the global electronic payment-messaging system – has been referred to as the “nuclear option” for sanctions. Do you agree with that characterization?”

  Eddie Fishman – the former Russia and Europe Lead in the US State Department’s Office of Economic Sanctions Policy and Implementation – responded in a fascinating way:

  “No – it’s not even close to being the nuclear option… SWIFT is just a messaging service. If the US and Europe decided to cut Russians banks off from SWIFT without imposing full-blocking sanctions on them, they could still transact with US and European financial institutions – they just couldn’t use SWIFT to do so.”

  Fishman went on to point out a potentially even bigger blowback consequence for the West’s actions:

  “…and in a perverse way, that may actually increase the demand for SWIFT alternatives, such as Russia’s own System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS).”

  And while a decision on SWIFT appears to still be pending, Ackman is certainly correct that is a bank run were to take place it would lead to a deep financial crisis overnight, and may be the reason why – in lieu of a SWIFT expulsion – the U.S. is reportedly weighing sanctions on Russia’s central bank, as Bloomberg reported citing “people familiar with the matter”, a move that would target much of the $643 billion in reserves that Russian President Vladimir Putin had amassed ahead of his invasion of Ukraine.

  A final decision hasn’t been made but the Biden administration is urgently considering all options in an attempt to deter Putin from further devastation in Ukraine, the people said, speaking on the condition of anonymity. The U.S. aims to make each move in conjunction with allies across Europe for maximum impact, they said.

  While Russia has been steadily dedollarizing for the past 4 years, and reducing reliance on western foreign currency (while adding to its holdings of yuan and gold), the central bank still held 16.4% of its holdings in dollars at the end of June 2021, according to the latest official data, down from 22.2% a year earlier. The euro’s share was up at 32.2%.

  

  A sanction on the central bank would be “devastating” for Russia, according to Tim Ash, a strategist at Bluebay Asset Management in London. “We would see the ruble crash.”

  As Bloomberg notes, although the decision would be without precedent for an economy the size of Russia’s, the U.S. has previously sanctioned the central banks of adversaries. In 2019, the Treasury Department blacklisted the monetary authorities of Iran and Venezuela for funneling money that supported destabilizing activities in the respective regions. North Korea’s central bank is also blacklisted.

  Losing access to funds abroad could handcuff Russia’s central bank as it tries to shore up the ruble in the foreign-exchange market by selling hard currency. The direct interventions, announced earlier this week after Putin ordered his military to attack Ukraine, mark the first time the Bank of Russia waded into the market since 2014.

  Russia also kept 22% of its hoard in gold, most of which is held domestically and would be out of reach of western sanctions, while about 13% of the central bank’s holdings were in yuan.

  Meanwhile, the Biden administration is also debating whether to push for a directive from the European Union needed to ban Russia from SWIFT, though a U.S. and EU decision isn’t imminent especially with Germany still unable to fully make up its mind.

  “It appears the Biden administration is gradually coming around to adopting the real hard-hitting sanctions that it should have imposed days ago,” said Marshall Billingslea, who served in the Treasury’s sanctions unit during the Trump administration.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 02/26/2022 – 17:26

• Russia, China "Plotting Behind The Scenes" Ahead Of Ukraine Invasion: Congressman
  Russia, China “Plotting Behind The Scenes” Ahead Of Ukraine Invasion: Congressman

  Authored by Eva Fu via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Moscow and Beijing have been keeping each other abreast of their plans in the leadup to the Ukraine attack, according to two lawmakers.

  “I think they have coordinated and I think that China is in a better position letting Russia go first, to evaluate,” Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.) told EpochTV’s “China Insider” program at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) on Feb. 25.

  

  By watching the world’s reaction on Ukraine, China is trying to gauge its next steps on Taiwan, the self-ruled island that the Chinese Communist Party claims as its own territory and long planned to bring under its control, by force if necessary.

  “China has designs on Taiwan,” said the lawmaker during an interview in Orlando, Florida. “And they want to see if the world imposes real sanctions on Russia, and how much it hurts Russian, and what really the willpower is to stop an aggressive nation from gaining further territory.”

  Rep. Steve Chabot (R-Ohio) held a similar view.

  He made a particular note of Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s meeting with China’s Xi Jinping at the Beijing Olympics’ opening day three weeks ago, which ended with the two countries forming a “no limits” partnership.

  “They’ve been plotting behind the scenes,” he told NTD, an affiliate of The Epoch Times, at the CPAC event.

  Ukraine was one subject discussed during “in-depth discussions” between the two nations’ foreign ministers, which took place a day prior to the Xi-Putin meeting. From the Kremlin readout, Moscow also “reaffirms its support” for Beijing’s claim that Taiwan is part of China.

  Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Chinese foreign ministry has been peppered with questions about whether Xi had prior knowledge about the plan and even gave Putin “his blessing,” but its officials had avoided making a direct answer.

  “Russia is an independent major country,” spokesperson Hua Chunying told reporters on Thursday.

  She accused the reporter of having “rich” imagination when asked if the timing of the assault, only days after the Beijing Olympics concluded, was coincidental.

  ‘Distraction’

  The intensifying Ukraine crisis is a boon for Beijing, Buck said. A military conflict would shift the U.S. attention away from its rivalry with China, handing Beijing an opportunity to exploit.

  “If the United States starts pouring troops into Europe to defend Europe and do our part as a NATO partner, we are not going to be able to do what we want to do or need to do in the Pacific,” said Buck.

  “It serves as a distraction,” he added.

  “In China’s view, it serves as a way of siphoning off resources that can be used in other areas,” the congressman said. “China is most interested in making sure that this is prolonged, and that Russia continues to maintain a threat to the Baltics, Poland, to Hungary, to other countries in Europe.”

  

  Beijing has so far refrained from directly labeling Russia’s attack on Ukraine as an invasion, but at the same time has maintained that it respects “all countries’ sovereignty and territorial integrity,” an oblique reference to its insistence that Taiwan is part of China.

  While the United States is not ready to engage in a ground war with Russia over Ukraine, the stakes are different when it comes to Taiwan, said Buck.

  “The will to defend Taiwan is greater than the will to defend Ukraine,” he said.

  “The idea that China and the way they have cheated trade relationships, the way they have stolen intellectual property, the way they have made themselves a military power in recent years, and have tried to affect shipping lanes that are necessary for trade, is different,” he said.

  “Taiwan sits in a position that could impact our ability to trade with Japan, with Korea and other neighbors,” he added. “And to really embolden China to interfere with strategic trading partners … I don’t think the United States wants that to happen.”

  According to a January poll by the Trafalgar Group, an overwhelming majority of Americans are against sending troops or military equipment to Ukraine in the event of a Russian invasion. Only 15 percent of those polled believed that the United States should provide troops, while 30 percent believed it should provide weapons and other supplies only.

  

  By contrast, 58 percent of those polled believed that U.S. military assets should be used to defend Taiwan in the event of an invasion by mainland China.

  To deter China from following Russia’s steps requires stronger action by the United States, both lawmakers said.

  “It’s absolutely critical that they [Beijing] realize if they attack [Taiwan] that will end up in serious military confrontation with the United States,” Chabot said, in calling Washington to change its long standing policy of strategic ambiguity, in which the United States remains deliberate vague on whether it’d come to Taiwan’s defense in the event of a Chinese invasion.

  “China is not being at all helpful,” Chabot added. “But that’s not unexpected because the two chief rivals on the globe right now … the worst of the bad actors are Putin and Xi—Russia and China.”

  David Zhang contributed to this report. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 02/26/2022 – 17:00

• Gundlach Is Moving DoubleLine's $134 Billion Money Management Arm To Florida, From California
  Gundlach Is Moving DoubleLine’s $134 Billion Money Management Arm To Florida, From California

  Jeff Gundlach is the latest in a long line of asset managers that are moving operations to Florida.

  Gundlach’s DoubleLine Capital LP has moved its principal office, according to a report from Bloomberg this week. Formerly located in Glendale, California, the move tp Tampa comes after Gundlach has publicly complained about quality of life and taxes in California. 

  Gundlach isn’t moving to Tampa, however. Regulatory filings this past week noted that “Key decisions impacting the policies and strategy of DoubleLine Capital” and board meetings will now all be made in Florida.

  

  Taxes and quality of life in California have been gripes of the fund manager’s for a while. Florida has served as a popular destination for many asset managers looking to leave major U.S. cities (mostly New York) to escape taxes and lack of law and order. Florida, famously, has no state income tax.

  The company’s employees have mostly been working remotely since Covid and have “flexibility” with regard to use of office space, the report says. 

  The company’s L.A. location will supplement the Florida office with “personnel and resources necessary to support DoubleLine’s routine day-to-day business”. 

  Geoffrey Weinstein, an attorney at law firm Cole Schotz, talked about how easy it is to move a primary resident to Florida to reap the same tax benefits. He told Bloomberg: “The only income tax the partner would have to pay is anything related to California activity. There are probably going to be some major players that move to Tampa.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 02/26/2022 – 16:30

• Watch: Ukrainian 'Tank Man' Trying To Block Russian Military Convoy
  Watch: Ukrainian ‘Tank Man’ Trying To Block Russian Military Convoy

  Authored by Lorenz Duschamps via The Epoch Times,

  A Ukrainian man apparently tried to block a Russian convoy of armored vehicles by stepping in front of the trucks, according to footage of the incident that has since gone viral.

  

  The 28-second video, shared by Ukraine news agency HB, shows an unarmed man running in front of several armed vehicles advancing down a road. The encounter has drawn comparisons to the iconic “tank man” of Tiananmen Square.

  “Ukrainian rushes under enemy equipment so that the occupiers do not pass,” the outlet wrote on Twitter along with the video of an unidentified man attempting to obstruct the convoy.

  ✊🏻Українець кидається під ворожу техніку, щоб окупанти не проїхали pic.twitter.com/cZ29kknqhB

  — НВ (@tweetsNV) February 25, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “Tank man” refers to the man who was pictured standing in front of a line of tanks near Tiananmen Square on June 5, 1989—a day after the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) ordered their troops to roll in tanks and open fire on civilians following weeks of protests centered in Tiananmen Square.

  

  Photographer Jeff Widener’s iconic Tank Man shot, in Tiananmen Square, China, on June 5, 1989. (Jeff Weidner)

  The CCP has never released a full account of the violence. Days after June 4, 1989, the CCP announced a death toll of about 300, most of them soldiers. However, rights groups and witnesses say thousands of people died. Unnamed sources within the CCP say at least 10,000 people were killed, according to a declassified British diplomatic cable and declassified White House documents.

  It’s unclear when and where the Ukrainian man tried to block the convoy. The footage went viral on Friday with many people commenting on the man’s bravery, comparing him to the iconic image of an unidentified Chinese man standing in front of multiple tanks in Beijing.

  “Ukraine just got its very own Tank Man,” one person said on Twitter.

  

  Russian forces advanced an assault on Ukraine early on Thursday, with reports of missile strikes and explosions in major Ukrainian cities. Russian tanks and troops appear to have already entered parts of Kyiv, the country’s capital, on Friday, amid heavy fighting with Ukraine’s military forces.

  Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense claimed on Friday that about 2,800 Russian soldiers had been killed in the first 36 hours of Russia’s invasion. Russia has not released any casualty figures.

  Viktor Liashko, Ukraine’s minister of health, said on Saturday that 198 people were killed and 1115 wounded so far amid Russia’s military operation, including children.

  “Unfortunately, according to operational data, we have 198 dead at the hands of the gunpowder, including 3 children, 1115 injured, 33 of which were children,” Liashko said in a statement on Facebook.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 02/26/2022 – 16:00

• 62% Of Voters Say Putin Wouldn't Have Invaded If Trump Were President; Poll
  62% Of Voters Say Putin Wouldn’t Have Invaded If Trump Were President; Poll

  A new Harvard Center for American Political Studies (CAPS)-Harris Poll survey (conducted between Feb. 23 and Feb. 24 with 2,026 registered voters) released exclusively to The Hill on Friday found that 62% of those polled believed Putin would not be moving against Ukraine if Trump had been president.

  

  The partisan breakdown is even more striking:

  85% of Republicans think Putin wouldn’t have invaded if Trump had been president and 38% of Democrats also believed it.

  A majority of Americans polled – 59% – also said they believed that the Russian president moved on Ukraine because Putin saw weakness in President Biden.

  Of course, the blame for this crisis is already being pitched at the previous administration as, after four years of constant gaslighting over US-Trump collusion the narrative needs to be kept alive. However, as the polls above show, and the following ‘objective’ facts prove, that is entirely false:

  Let’s address this objectively. Prior admin:

  1. Sanctioned NS2
  2. Ended treaties that Russia wanted us in (INF, OST)
  3. Grew military
  4. Annihilated Russian paramilitaries in Syria
  5. Sent lethal aid to Ukraine early as 2017
  6. Struck Syrian chem plants despite Russian presence https://t.co/wHN5pVt1G4

  — John Noonan (@noonanjo) February 24, 2022

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  Let’s address this objectively. Prior admin:

  1. Sanctioned NS2
  2. Ended treaties that Russia wanted us in (INF, OST)
  3. Grew military
  4. Annihilated Russian paramilitaries in Syria
  5. Sent lethal aid to Ukraine early as 2017
  6. Struck Syrian chem plants despite Russian presence https://t.co/wHN5pVt1G4

  — John Noonan (@noonanjo) February 24, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  And this two minute rant over dinner by Trump, blasting NATO leaders (and specifically Germany), should clarify a lot for you – Trump was right… again!

  I know CNN & MSNBC never aired this, so I figured I would. Spot on, don’t you think? pic.twitter.com/6V1vRKxP8p

  — Justin Pulitzer 🍊 (@JustinPulitzer) February 24, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Finally, it appears the ‘rally around the flag’ bump in Biden’s approval rating is already starting to fade already…

  

  Perhaps the imminent $4 gas price is why?

  “On the eve of his State of the Union, the president has hit a new low as inflation and economic anxiety hit new highs. The president is now underwater on every top domestic and foreign policy issue,” said Mark Penn, the co-director of the Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey.

  

  The same poll found that 64 percent of registered voters said Biden is “too lenient” with Russia, while 31 percent said he handles Russia “just right.” Five percent said he’s “too tough.”

  However, as Rick Moran write at PJMedia.com, the news is even worse in the left-leaning Marist poll which found that most Americans see Biden’s first year as a “failure.”

  Majorities of Americans think Biden’s first year in office has been a failure (56%), he is not fulfilling campaign promises (54%), and he is doing more to divide the nation (52%) than to unite it. Americans are more than four times as likely to consider Biden’s first year to be a major failure (36%) than a major success (8%).

  We cannot wait to see how the president spins all this in his State of The Union address next Tuesday (which we note will be followed not just by the usual GOP rebuttal, but Democratic “Squad” member Rashida Tlaib will be making a speech to push the progressive agenda on behalf of the Working Families Party following Biden’s speech).

  Not exactly ‘unifying’.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 02/26/2022 – 15:30

• Shellenberger: Western Elites Are Putin's 'Useful Idiots'
  Shellenberger: Western Elites Are Putin’s ‘Useful Idiots’

  “People think nothing could have been done to prevent Russia from invading Ukraine, but that’s absurd,” bravely writes outspoken realist Michael Shellenberger in a Twitter thread that is bound to get him accused of being ‘treasonous’ or promoting ‘Russian propaganda’, instead of merely opening the forum for discussion of other opinions than the one driven into the West’s citizens by an every-ready establishment media.

  

  As Shellenberger points out (obviously to many), “if Putin thought the costs of invasion outweighed the benefits, he wouldn’t have done it. He’s a rational actor not a madman. And today it’s clear Putin calculated correctly.“

  Via Threadreaderapp.com,

  After Russia invaded, a few people demanded that Europe stop buying its natural gas, but European utilities snatched up long-term Russian contracts…

  

  …and the White House said, “Our sanctions are not designed to cause any disruption to the flow of energy from Russia to the world.”

  

  People who believe that nothing could have been done to prevent Russia from invading Ukraine thus imply that Russia’s chokehold over European energy supplies was inevitable, but it wasn’t. Europe could have easily increased, rather than closed, nuclear plants and natural gas.

  Britain could have increased fracking for nat gas but didn’t. Why?

  Because Russia pumped $95M into anti-fracking advocacy.

  Noted the head of NATO, Russia “engaged actively with environmental organisations… to maintain Europe’s dependence on Russian gas”

  

  Source: The Critic

  Europe could have kept operating and expanded its nuclear power plants but instead, under pressure from climate activists, including Greta Thunberg, shut them down…

  Here is Greta’s statement, which she says she re-wrote to reflect her opinion, and here is the data that contradicts her pic.twitter.com/GJVt8nGYHO

  — Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) March 28, 2019

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  Climate activists even forced nuclear-heavy France to throttle its nuclear plants so order to use more industrial wind energy. The result was significant outages over the last few weeks at a time when French nuclear plants were needed most.

  

  Source: Michael Shellenberg’s Substack

  Efforts to make Europe less energy independent, and thus more dependent on Russian gas imports, were led by powerful banking interests in coordination with climate activists and center-Left parties around the world.

  

  Source: Michael Shellenbergers’ Substack

  Not satisfied with their successful efforts to make Europe dependent on Russia, global elites have sought to deny poor African nations abundant energy.

  All of this happened in plain sight at Davos, the European Commission, and U.N. conferences

  The United Nations is using a talking dinosaur to urge poor African nations to not use fossil fuels while providing information to global elites about which airports in which they can land their private jets for next week’s climate change meeting pic.twitter.com/EolYI97c2t

  — Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) October 30, 2021

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  The ideological justification for energy scarcity long predates climate change. In the 1960s, radical Left activists abusing their authority as scientists claimed that the world was running out of energy, despite the fact that nuclear proved that energy supplies are infinite.

  The reason pro-scarcity “greens” attacked nuclear was because it debunked the idea that we faced resource scarcity and environmental degradation from overpopulation.

  Infinite nuclear energy meant infinite fertilizer, freshwater, and food.

  

  Source: Forbes

  Pro-energy scarcity greens hid their motivations.

  When asked if he had been worried about nuclear accidents, a Sierra Club anti-nuclear activist said, “No, I really didn’t care because there are too many people anyway … I think that playing dirty if you have a noble end is fine” 

  Bankers & renewables companies promote energy scarcity. Three of the largest donors to climate causes are billionaire financial titans Michael Bloomberg, George Soros & Tom Steyer, all of whom have big investments in renewables and fossil fuels.

  Shadow bank BlackRock has long promoted renewables. Its senior climate official @BrianDeeseNEC heads the White House National Economic Council

  Biden’s “Build Back Better” talking points echoed BlackRock’s pitch for “climate resilient” infrastructure

  

  Source: Forbes.com

  Biden and Democrats would like to see the whole of the US follow the California model

  California saw electricity prices rise 7x more than the rest of the US over the last decade, is experiencing blackouts, and intends to shut down its last nuclear plant

  To avoid blackouts for 2.5M Californians, Gov. ⁦@GavinNewsom⁩ issues emergency declaration allowing for burning of diesel, even as he moves forward with his plan to shut down Diablo Canyon nuclear plant, which provides power for 3M https://t.co/kd2Tgzm3yQ

  — Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) August 22, 2021

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  The goal of Western elites is energy scarcity

  The cost of that scarcity is to empower tyrants like Putin who can invade nations like Ukraine with little cost

  Western elites are thus Putin’s useful idiots

  They are the ones now saying nothing could have prevented invasion

  What the US, Canada, Europe, Japan, South Korea, Australia and other Western allies must do is obvious and urgent: we must massively expand nuclear energy and oil and gas production. This will lower energy prices and reduce exposure to Russian use of energy as a weapon of war.

  The public needs to understand that Russia could not have taken Ukraine had the West expanded energy production rather than throttled it by closing nuclear plants and reducing oil and gas production.

  

  Source Michael Shellenberger Substack

  We need @JoeBiden @SpeakerPelosi @GOPLeader @SenSchumer @LeaderMcConnell take immediate bipartisan action to keep nuclear plants operating and expand oil & gas production for domestic use and export to our allies in Europe & Asia.

  We need to see urgent concerted action led by @POTUS Congress & Canada to significantly expand oil, natural gas, and nuclear output from N. America to insure short-and long-term energy security of allies in Europe & Asia, as urged by @pmarca & @esaagar https://t.co/67H5hlWf4k

  — Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) February 24, 2022

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  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 02/26/2022 – 15:00

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