- Russia Readies Test Of Nuclear-Powered "Doomsday-Drone" Torpedo
Russia Readies Test Of Nuclear-Powered “Doomsday-Drone” Torpedo
Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/29/2020 – 02:45As American and Russian military jets operate dangerously close to each other earlier this week, for the third time in months, Russia has just announced, it will launch the Poseidon submarine drone, dubbed the “Doomsday Drone” and or a “Nuclear Torpedo,” with an impressive range that could autonomously traverse the Atlantic Ocean and cause quite a stir in Washington.
Several Russian media outlets are reporting the developments. RIA Novosti said a military source has confirmed the unmanned underwater vehicle, which can carry a nuclear warhead, is scheduled to launch this fall. The source said the launch would be conducted from a K-329 Belgorod nuclear submarine. There was no indication of where the launch site would be.
Powered by a small nuclear reactor, Poseidon has a top speed estimated at between 60 and 100 knots, with an impressive range of 6,200 miles, and when launched from the Barents Sea or somewhere in the Arctic, can autonomously traverse the North Atlantic, an area where Russia, China, and the US are each trying to stake a claim, due mostly to the trillions of dollars of natural resources beneath the ocean floor.
Poseidon drone. h/t Russian Ministry of Defense On Radio Sputnik this week, a military expert, the head of the Center for the Study of Public Applied Problems of National Security, retired Colonel Alexander Zhilin, called Poseidon a “powerful weapon” and spoke about its features:
“A drone has several advantages. A submarine with a crew on board is, of course, a powerful weapon, but there are certain restrictions on the human factor. Poseidon can practically be on alert and perform assigned tasks at any time. The appearance of drones This class, of course, requires a lot of responsibility, because management is through software. It is clear that there are certain risks when, by convention, hackers can try to take control. But, talking with our engineers, designers, I came to the conclusion that protection against external interference is colossal,” said Zhilin.
We first noted the development of the Poseidon when Russian President Vladimir Putin officially confirmed the weapon’s existence in his annual address to the Federal Assembly in 2018.
“We have developed unmanned submersible vehicles that can move at great depths – I would say extreme depths – intercontinentally, at a speed multiple times higher than the speed of submarines, cutting-edge torpedoes and all kinds of surface vessels,” said Putin.
Russia’s Ministry of Defense released a video of Poseidon’s strike capabilities
We noted last year the underwater nuclear drones are capable of devastating enemy coastlines with a tsunami wave up to 1,600 feet that can leave behind radioactive isotopes.
“The U.S. intelligence agencies estimate Status-6 will carry a multi-megaton thermonuclear bomb payload. For comparisons’ sake the bomb dropped on Hiroshima was 16 kilotons, several orders of magnitude smaller. A one megaton bomb is the equivalent of 1,000 kilotons—one one million tons of TNT. Reports from Russia indicate the bomb could be as large as 100 megatons.
Flood model from the wave of 100 Mt explosion near New York City. Clawpack flood modeling (the University of Washington, Norwegian Defence Research Establishment and etc.) “Status-6 is designed to attack enemy coastal cities, ports, shipyards, and naval bases. Once Status-6 arrives at its destination it detonates the bomb, causing an enormous amount of damage through blast and heat. A 100 megaton bomb would generate artificial tsunamis, carrying the destruction far inshore.” -Popular Mechanics
With 16 Poseidon drones ready to launch. There is no adversary of Russia that is capable of overtaking Poseidon at its operating depths and fast speeds.
- US Ambassador Richard Grenell's Legacy Of Success In Exposing German Hypocrisy
US Ambassador Richard Grenell’s Legacy Of Success In Exposing German Hypocrisy
Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/29/2020 – 02:00Authored by Soeren Kern via The Gatestone Institute,
Richard Grenell is stepping down from his role as U.S. ambassador to Germany. The move ends one of the most effective American ambassadorships to Berlin in recent memory.
Grenell arguably has done more than any other American official, with the possible exception of U.S. President Donald J. Trump, to call out the duplicity, hypocrisy and recklessness of Germany’s foreign policy establishment.
On a wide range of geopolitical issues — from relations with China, Iran and Russia to anti-Semitism, climate change, defense spending (NATO), energy dependence (Nord Stream), globalism, Hezbollah, Huawei and mass migration — Grenell embarrassed German leaders by showing that their words and actions do not match.
The greatest point of contention in U.S. relations with Germany is Berlin’s refusal to honor its pledge to spend 2% of its GDP on defense. Germany, the largest and wealthiest country in the European Union, currently lacks a functioning Air Force and Navy and is completely dependent on U.S. security guarantees. Germany’s unwillingness to pay for its own defense has led to charges that it is “free-riding” on American security. Grenell consistently drew attention to this untenable arrangement, much to the anger of German elites.
Closely related to the defense spending issue is Germany’s increasing energy dependency on Russia. Despite opposition from the United States and 15 European countries, Germany is determined to complete the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline, which will further increase Russia’s leverage as an energy supplier to Europe. Grenell placed a spotlight on the inherent contradiction that while the United States is spending billions of dollars annually to defend Europe against growing threats from Russia, German energy policies are increasing Russia’s grip over Europe.
Grenell’s skillful use of Twitter enabled him to bypass Germany’s mainstream media and offer an alternative to the official narratives parroted by Germany’s political and media establishment. German elites frequently responded with ad hominem attacks; Grenell remained above the fray and stayed focused on the policy issues.
Grenell’s greatest achievement during his roughly two years as ambassador was his tireless pursuit of the American interest and his unwillingness to appease Germany’s anti-American establishment.
Cliff Sims, a former advisor to President Trump, encapsulated the essence of Grenell’s diplomatic style:
“The mandate of a diplomat is usually to be diplomatic. Trumpian foreign policy is obviously more confrontational. Ric is willing to be publicly confrontational with his host country if it’s in America’s national interest in a way that is not typical historically but directly reflects the way Trump operates.”
Thomas Jaeger, a political scientist at the University of Cologne, said that Grenell has had an important impact on shaping the public debate in Germany:
“He had no qualms about putting the German government under pressure in public, which might not have always been the smartest thing to do. But everyone knew Trump listened closely to him. I think they could have used that connection a lot better. In any case, Grenell has been highly effective in getting Germany to talk more about defense spending and about the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. The public opinion on those two issues has changed, and Grenell certainly had a role in that.”
Following is a brief selection of Grenell’s tweets, statements and interactions with Germany’s political establishment on a variety of issues:
Iran
On May 8, 2018, Grenell’s first day as U.S. Ambassador to Germany, he made a splash with a tweet that the Trump administration was serious about enforcing sanctions against Iran: “As @realDonaldTrump said, US sanctions will target critical sectors of Iran’s economy. German companies doing business in Iran should wind down operations immediately.”
The tweet, which came after President Trump announced that he was pulling the United States out of the Iran nuclear deal, was greeted with indignation:
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Former German Ambassador to the United States, Wolfgang Ischinger, tweeted: “Ric: my advice, after a long ambassadorial career: explain your own country’s policies, and lobby the host country – but never tell the host country what to do, if you want to stay out of trouble. Germans are eager to listen, but they will resent instructions.”
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Green Party lawmaker Omid Nouripour said: “Good cooperation means that one does not drive a highly aggressive, ruthless policy towards our security interests and before you even arrive here, you threaten the German economy. It’s simply not a tone of cooperation and we have to say so very clearly.”
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The then leader of Germany’s Social Democratic Party, Andrea Nahles, added: “It’s not my task to teach people about the fine art of diplomacy, especially not the U.S. ambassador. But he does appear to need some tutoring.”
Grenell responded by tweeting that what he wrote was “the exact language sent out from the White House talking points & fact sheet.”
After former German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel insinuated that the United States was no a friend of Germany, Grenell tweeted:
“Gabriel is now in Iran meeting with the regime to talk about doing more trade deals…. this after an Iranian ‘diplomat’ was arrested in Germany for giving an explosive device to 2 people on their way to blow up a convention in Paris.”
Grenell also said that months of pressure from the United States led Germany finally to ban Iran’s Mahan Air, which is linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force (IRGC-QF). German officials countered that they took the initiative on their own.
Hezbollah
Grenell was tireless in his efforts to pressure the German government to outlaw Hezbollah — Arabic for “The Party of Allah” — in Germany. On December 19, 2019, the German parliament, known as the Bundestag, approved a three-page resolution — “Effective Action against Hezbollah” — that called on the German government to ban the activities of the Iran-backed Lebanese terrorist group on German territory. According to the Bundestag, a complete organizational ban of Hezbollah is (supposedly) impossible because the group’s structures in Germany are “not currently ascertainable.”
On April 30, 2020, after years of equivocating, the German government announced a compromise measure between German lawmakers who want to take a harder line against Iran and those who do not. The ban falls far short of a complete prohibition on Hezbollah and appears aimed at providing the German government with political cover that allows Berlin to claim that it has banned the group even if it has not.
The ban does not require the closure of Hezbollah mosques or cultural centers, nor does it require that members of the group be deported. The ban also does not prohibit Hezbollah operatives from travelling to Germany.
Israel
Grenell has been an indefatigable supporter of Israel. Germany claims that the security of Israel is a fundamental element of its Staatsräson, or “reason of state.” German foreign policy, however, is decidedly anti-Israel. Grenell frequently reminded German leaders that their words and actions regarding Israel do not match.
In recent years, Germany has approved scores of anti-Israel UN resolutions. In May 2016, Germany voted in favor of an especially disgraceful UN resolution, co-sponsored by the Arab group of states and the Palestinian delegation, that singled out Israel at the annual assembly of the World Health Organization (WHO) as the world’s only violator of “mental, physical and environmental health.”
Much of Germany’s political establishment appears to be fundamentally anti-Israel. In March 2019, for instance, the Bundestag overwhelmingly rejected a resolution by the Free Democratic Party (FDP) to urge Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government to reverse its anti-Israel voting record at the United Nations.
In February 2019, on the 40th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier congratulated, “also in the name of my compatriots,” the Iranian regime, which openly seeks Israel’s destruction. The move was defended by much of the German establishment as “diplomatic custom.”
In February 2020, Grenell rebuked the German government for its plans to celebrate the founding of the Islamic Republic of Iran:
“Germany has a moral responsibility to say to Iran very firmly and clearly that it is unacceptable to deny basic human rights to your people, or kill protesters in the streets or push gay people off buildings. Celebrating the regime’s ongoing existence sends the opposite message.”
In response, Steinmeier’s office announced that it would not send the Iranian regime a congratulatory email on the anniversary of the revolution — but then “accidentally” sent it anyway.
President Trump’s Middle East Peace Plan
On January 28, 2020, the Trump administration unveiled its Middle East peace plan. The proposal was widely criticized in Germany. German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said: “Only a negotiated two-state solution, acceptable to both sides, can lead to a lasting peace between Israelis and Palestinians.”
- Bundestag member Norbert Röttgen tweeted: “The so-called #PeacePlan is to the detriment of #Palestine and presented as an ultimatum depicts a setback in the conflict. It is primarily a contribution to the ongoing election campaigns in the #USA & #Israel and a welcome diversion from domestic crises in both states.”
Grenell replied: “Abbas is in his 15th year of a 4 year term. The US didn’t cause this conflict but we are trying to solve it. Maybe some help?”
- The director of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Volker Perthes, tweeted: “#Trump’s ‘deal of the century’ is essentially a reflection of Netanyahu’s ideas for #Israel’s relation with Palestinians, packaged as a US ‘peace plan’. Don’t take it lightly though. It will shape developments on the ground, as well as international law debates and practice.”
Grenell replied: “Europeans who criticize this good initiative from the sidelines, while failing to offer any ideas of their own should be dismissed and ignored for wanting the failing status quo. Less talk, more action.”
Conservatism
In June 2018, a month after assuming his ambassadorship, Grenell, in an interview with Breitbart, said that he wanted to empower European conservatives:
“I absolutely want to empower other conservatives throughout Europe, other leaders. I think there is a groundswell of conservative policies that are taking hold because of the failed policies of the left.
“There’s no question about that and it’s an exciting time for me. I look across the landscape and we’ve got a lot of work to do but I think the election of Donald Trump has empowered individuals and people to say that they can’t just allow the political class to determine before an election takes place, who’s going to win and who should run.
“That’s a very powerful moment when you can grasp the ability to see past the group-think of a very small elitist crowd telling you you have no chance to win or you’ll never win, or they mock you early on.”
Grenell’s seemingly innocuous comments stoked hyperbolic outrage:
- Martin Schulz, a former leader of Germany’s Social Democratic Party, said: “Grenell does not behave like a diplomat, but like a far-right colonial officer.”
- Left Party lawmaker Sahra Wagenknecht called for Grenell’s expulsion: “Anyone who, like US Ambassador Richard Grenell, thinks that he can determine who governs Europe, can no longer remain in Germany as a diplomat.”
- A parliamentarian for the Social Democrats, Johannes Kahrs, tweeted: “If this is how it was said, then this man should leave the country.”
- Sevim Dagdelen of the opposition Left party described Grenell as Trump’s “regime change envoy.”
Huawei
The Trump administration has repeatedly urged Germany against allowing the Chinese telecommunications company Huawei to participate in its next-generation mobile network. The U.S. government has warned that Beijing could use Huawei technology to conduct espionage or cyber sabotage.
The President of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service, Bruno Kahl, also advised against a role for Huawei. “Infrastructure is not a suitable area for a group that cannot be trusted fully,” he said.
In February 2020, after China threatened to retaliate against German carmakers, German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s ruling conservatives announced a compromise measure that stopped short of banning Huawei.
In response, Grenell tweeted:
“@realDonaldTrump just called me from AF1 and instructed me to make clear that any nation who chooses to use an untrustworthy 5G vendor will jeopardize our ability to share Intelligence and information at the highest level.”
The tweet elicited a series of responses:
- Left Party lawmaker Steffen Bockhahn tweeted: “Mister Ambassador, you should know, that parliamentarians are free in mind and in decision. In old Europe we want it like that and we like diplomatic diplomats. It makes real and open-minded conversation much easier. Regards!”
Grenell replied: “You want a US that doesn’t pressure you to pay your NATO obligation, looks the other way when you buy too much Russian gas, doesn’t demand you take back your Nazi prison guard living in NYC, accepts your higher car tariffs and still sends 50,000 troops to your country.”
- Bundestag member Alexander Graf Lambsdorff tweeted: “Is there a US vendor the President would care to recommend instead? Does he have a list of ‘trustworthy vendors’? Which criteria does he apply to determine ‘trustworthiness’?”
Grenell replied: “It’s odd that you don’t think about European solutions. Do you take any responsibility or just blame the US?”
- A director of the French search engine Qwant, Guillaume Champeau, tweeted: “According to the U.S. ambassador to Germany, the U.S. is threatening to withhold [intelligence] information from states that have Huawei in their 5G infrastructure.”
Grenell replied: “According to this guy, the US doesn’t get to react to policies we find dangerous. I find it offensive that you think the US cooperation must stay the same no matter what you do. We call that taking us for granted.”
- German Economy Minister Peter Altmaier, a close confident of Chancellor Angela Merkel, created a false equivalency between the United States, which guarantees Germany’s security, and China. On a television talk show, he suggested that American telecommunications companies posed just as much of a security threat as ones from China.
Grenell responded that Altmaier’s comparison was “an insult to the thousands of American troops who help ensure Germany’s security and to the millions of Americans committed to a strong Western alliance. These claims are likewise an insult to the millions of Chinese citizens denied basic freedoms and unjustly imprisoned by the CCP [Communist Party of China].”
Defense Spending
At a NATO summit in Wales in 2014, members agreed to meet a goal of spending at least 2% of their GDP on defense within the next decade.
On March 18, 2019, German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz announced that Germany would not be spending two percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) on defense. He said that the share of defense expenditure in GDP would rise to 1.37% in the short term, but decrease to 1.25% by 2023. Chancellor Angela Merkel had pledged to increase spending to 1.5% by 2024.
Grenell responded:
“NATO members have clearly committed to moving towards two percent by 2024 and not moving away from it. The fact that the Federal Government is even considering reducing its already unacceptable contributions to military readiness is a worrying signal from Germany to its 28 NATO allies.”
The deputy speaker of the Bundestag, Wolfgang Kubicki, called for Grenell to be expelled from Germany:
“If a U.S. diplomat acts like a high commissioner of an occupying power, he will have to learn that our tolerance has its limits. It is no longer tolerable that the US ambassador intervenes again in political questions of the sovereign Federal Republic. Germany should not tolerate this improper behavior for reasons of self-respect.”
The SPD parliamentary director, Carsten Schneider, also rejected Grenell’s criticism: “Mr. Grenell is a total diplomatic failure. With his repeated clumsy provocations, Mr. Grenell damages the transatlantic relationship.”
In November 2019, German Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer said that Germany would not meet its NATO defense spending target until 2031.
Nord Stream 2 Gas Pipeline
Grenell worked tirelessly to stop the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline directly linking Russia to Germany. The €9.5 billion ($10.5 billion) pipeline would double shipments of Russian natural gas to Germany by transporting the gas under the Baltic Sea. Opponents of the pipeline warn that it will give Russia a stranglehold over Germany’s energy supply.
On December 20, 2019, President Trump signed into law the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), the annual defense spending bill, which included Nord Stream 2 sanctions language. The measure previously cleared the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate by overwhelming margins. The American sanctions forced Switzerland’s Allseas Group SA, which was laying the sub-sea pipes, to abandon work, throwing the project into disarray.
German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas tweeted: “European energy policy is decided in Europe, not in the US. We reject external interference and extraterritorial sanctions.”
Grenell, in an interview with Bild, the largest-circulation newspaper in Germany, responded:
“This is a longstanding US policy that goes back to the Obama administration. The goal has always been for diversification of Europe’s energy sources and to ensure that not one country or source can build up too much influence on Europe through energy….
“Fifteen European countries, the European Commission and the European Parliament have all expressed their concerns about the project. We have been hearing from our European partners that the United States should support them in their efforts. That is why the sanctions are a very pro-European decision. Currently, there is a lot of talk in Germany about being more for Europe and we believe that when it comes to Nord Stream 2, we have taken an extremely pro-European position. I’ve been hearing all day from European diplomats thanking me for taking this action.”
Richard Herzinger, political correspondent for Die Welt, wrote in support of Grenell:
“U.S. Ambassador Richard Grenell said that the Washington sanction decision against the Russian-German Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline was ‘a very pro-European decision.’
“American interest in the European gas market is certainly not entirely selfless. In principle, however, Grenell is absolutely right when he rejects the accusation that the sanctions are directed against Europe.
“The German government, most recently in the person of Finance Minister Olaf Scholz, incorrectly presents the U.S. punitive measures as an attack on pan-European energy sovereignty. In truth, it is more Berlin itself that isolates itself in Europe with its stubborn adherence to Nord Stream 2.
“A number of EU governments, especially Poland and the Baltic States, welcome U.S. intervention as a long-awaited step against the expansion of German-Russian energy cooperation, which they see as an eminent threat to their security. The German energy special route has also been met with great skepticism from the EU Commission and the European Parliament, which has spoken out explicitly against the construction of Nord Stream 2.
“Incidentally, the U.S. sanctions are by no means a further outflow of anti-European affectations from Donald Trump. Rather, they were imposed by the U.S. Congress — with an overwhelming majority that includes both Democratic and Republican members. Such punitive measures had already been considered at the time of Obama’s presidency.
“Today, many Europeans believe Washington’s intervention is the last hope of stopping the pipeline project that would dramatically increase Europe’s dependence on Putin’s Russia.”
On May 26, Grenell announced that the United States was preparing additional sanctions to prevent completion of the pipeline. “Germany must stop feeding the beast while at the same time it does not pay enough for NATO,” he said. The German financial newspaper Handelsblatt described the new sanctions as Grenell’s “farewell greeting” (Abschiedsgruß).
Nazi War Criminals
In August 2018, Jakiw Palij, a 95-year-old Nazi collaborator who had lived in New York City for decades, was deported to Germany. Despite a court ordering his deportation in 2004, past American administrations were unsuccessful in removing him. Under orders from President Trump, Grenell secured Palij’s deportation to Germany. Palij died six months later.
On January 10, 2019, Grenell tweeted:
“Former Nazi prison guard Jakiw Palij has died in Germany. I am so thankful to @realDonaldTrump for making the case a priority. Removing the former Nazi prison guard from the US was something multiple Presidents just talked about – but President Trump made it happen.”
In an interview, Welt am Sonntag asked Grenell: “You have introduced a very direct way of communicating with your German audience. Are you surprised by the critical reception?” Grenell replied:
“I’m not surprised at all. I think that the American style has always been different from the European one. And it’s OK to have different styles. I’ve always thought that I would be judged by the political class on the progress I make. For too long, we have ignored some problems.
“One example of this is over the Nazi prison guard Jakiw Palij, who had been living in the US and who we wanted to be returned to Germany for a very long time. I was told that the Germans simply didn’t want to make this happen, which I didn’t find to be true — after pushing harder on this topic and after raising it at every meeting across all levels of government. So, is my style more pushy? I believe it is. But it also helps to reform our relationship and make it deeper and stronger.”
In March 2020, a US immigration judge ordered Tennessee resident Friedrich Karl Berger, who served as an armed guard at a Nazi concentration camp during World War II, to be deported to Germany. With Grenell no longer ambassador, it remains unclear if Germany will take Berger back.
North Korea
Grenell was instrumental in closing a hostel in Berlin that is owned by the government of North Korea. The Cityhostel Berlin funneled approximately €450,000 ($500,000) a year into the coffers of the regime of Kim Jong Un in violation of UN Security Council sanctions.
On January 28, 2020, a Berlin Administrative Court ordered the hostel to be shut down. Grenell tweeted:
“US Embassy Berlin has been hard at work getting this hotel shut down. It seems like a no-brainer to us. North Korea is under UN sanctions and the Germans are the Chair of the UN enforcement committee.”
Farewell to Germany
On February 20, 2020, President Trump installed Grenell as the acting director of national intelligence. Grenell was to fulfill his new duties while continuing in his role as ambassador. Almost immediately, German leaders complained that the lack of a full-time ambassador signalled that the United States was downgrading its relationship with Germany.
Bundestag member Alexander Graf Lambsdorff said that the additional post was an “upgrade” for Grenell, but a “downgrade” for Germany: “Even with the greatest effort, it is not possible to coordinate 17 intelligence agencies while maintaining German-American relations.”
Johann Wadephul, Bundestag member for the Christian Democrats, added: “Especially in these times, the transatlantic relationship needs a full-time ambassador.”
A foreign policy spokesman for the Social Democrats, Nils Schmid, said that the fact that Grenell would continue the post of ambassador from Washington was “an expression of a disdain for Germany.” He added: “U.S. President Donald Trump should appoint a successor who does not make one-sided propaganda, but also campaigns for German positions in Washington.”
On May 24, the German newspaper Die Welt, citing the German Press Agency, reported that Grenell would be stepping down. The announcement generated a range of responses, including:
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A fellow at the German Marshall Fund, Noah Barkin, tweeted that Germany would breathe a “sigh of relief” at Grenell’s departure. Grenell replied: “You make a big mistake if you think the American pressure is off. You don’t know Americans.”
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German Bundestag member Andreas Nick, tweeted: “For a generation, each and every US Ambassador I got to know personally – career diplomat or political appointee alike – used to leave his post as a highly respected figure and trusted friend of Germany. Now someone leaves issuing threats as if he were representing a hostile power.”
Grenell responded: “You always wanted me to stop asking you publicly to pay your NATO obligations and calling for an end to Nord Stream 2. But these are US policies. And I work for the American people.”
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Bundestag member Alexander Graf Lambsdorff admitted that Grenell will be missed because of his authenticity and closeness to President Trump: “In Ambassador Grenell, you knew what the American government thinks and how it acts.”
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Julian Röpke, political editor of Bild, Germany’s largest newspaper, tweeted: “With @RichardGrenell, Germany is losing one of the best US Ambassadors to our country ever. Whether it was pressure to stop NordStream2, rethink German-Iranian regime (love) affairs or increase our defense expenditure – he was always on point and acting in the best interest of the United States and Germany. THANKS SO MUCH!”
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- Greece Sends Military To 'Build The Wall' Amid Renewed Turkish 'Migrant Chaos' Threats
Greece Sends Military To ‘Build The Wall’ Amid Renewed Turkish ‘Migrant Chaos’ Threats
Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/29/2020 – 01:00Early this week we took note of the increasingly tense border dispute between historic longtime enemies Greece and Turkey, specifically concentrated along the Evros River which separates the two. Athens charged that Turkish troops had conducted a land grab at a site where the river level went down, altering its course, or essentially orchestrating a quiet military ‘invasion’ of sovereign Greek territory in progress.
Recent images from border crossing at Evros, via Greek City Times. “At the camp there is now a small Turkish flag flying from a tree. Troops have rejected Greek demands to withdraw. It comes weeks after thousands of Syrian refugees failed to break through into Greece,” The Daily Mail has described of the dispute.
This also comes after months of Turkey’s Erdogan threatening to unleash Syrian refugee and migrant chaos on the EU — which he’s already made good on to a limited degree — resulting in clashes between Greek border patrols and an influx of Middle East migrants.
Erdogan’s blackmail targeting Greece and the EU has created soaring tensions between armed forces on each side of the border. In March Greece even began erecting huge concrete barriers at key crossings like the Kastanies crossing, given Turkish guards were letting throngs of asylum seekers pour through their side of the border. Needless to say, the ongoing militarization of what up until now has been a largely diplomatic arena fight presents the potential for a direct major flare-up of a border war.
Recent news footage out of Greece shows military patrols erecting make-shift border barriers:
And broadly, Athens significantly increased its naval and military personnel patrolling land and sea.
And now, as Voice of America observes, the conflict is again getting militarized amid another round of Turkish ‘blackmail’ threats:
Greece is mobilizing forces to boost defenses along its land frontiers with Turkey. The move as Turkey threatens to resume the flow of thousands of migrants to Europe through Greece. The deployment also follows plans by Greece to expand its border fence in the contentious border region.
Officials in Athens say they are deploying more than 400 specially trained officers, including riot police, in the northeast region of Evros.
The report notes there are already 1,100 Greek officers in the area placed on “code-red alert” status at a moment some 100,000 mainly Syrian refugees stand ready to push across the border.
Essentially Greece is moving to “build the wall” to make any near-term Turkish move to push migrants through a costlier, more difficult feat sure to back-fire — given that amid the COVID-19 pandemic crisis it would again result in thousands being stuck in a ‘no man’s land’ border area, with political pressure and spotlight again coming on Ankara to solve a crisis of its own making.
Carlos Latuff cartoon, 2011, when the proposal was first seriously discussed by lawmakers in Athens. It further comes, as VOA emphasizes, just “as lockdown measures are now relaxing across Europe and beyond,” prompting Turkey’s foreign minister to say Tuesday that “migrants and refugees in his country may as well be preparing to make the move anew to Europe — a remark that alarmed officials in Athens.”
Greek Conservative lawmaker Tassos Hadjivassiliou told VOA the massive wall concept as a physical barrier is “a no-brainer” – explaining further that:
“Once this fence goes up, Turkey will be severely compromised of its ability to push through migrants. And if that happens, then Ankara will have lost its most powerful tool of leverage against Europe… and its chances, therefore, of clinching a new deal with Brussels, plus added financial support will fade.”
At the height of the crisis in March, local news crews captured scenes of heavy machinery on the Greek side of a key Evros crossing erecting massive concrete blocks, likely to serve as foundation for a broader, more expansive wall along the porous land border with Turkey.
The push for a border all is nothing new for Athens, first pursued seriously almost a decade ago despite broader EU criticism, but the latest developments related to Syria and Turkey – and the catastrophic 2015 migrant crisis, much of which Greece had to absorb – means Athens appears to now be fast-tracking such a project, given it’s calling up the military to do so under emergency status.
- Escobar Warns India, China Teeter Toward Border Clash As Beijing Flexes Its Muscles
Escobar Warns India, China Teeter Toward Border Clash As Beijing Flexes Its Muscles
Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/29/2020 – 00:05Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Asia Times,
It would be counter-productive for BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organization members India and China to come to blows on account of some extremely remote – albeit strategically important – snowy mountain passes.
But when one looks at the 3,488-kilometer-long Line of Actual Control, which India defines as “unresolved,” that can never be totally ruled out.
As the Hindustan Times reported:
“India has pushed in high altitude warfare troops with support elements to the eastern Ladakh theater to counter [the] Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s aggressive posture designed to browbeat the government to stop building border infrastructure in the Daulat Beg Oldie sector as it may threaten the Lhasa-Kashgar highway in Aksai Chin.”
The highway runs from Tibet to southwestern Xinjiang Province, where the Karakoram Highway – the northern part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor – goes from Kashgar to Islamabad. Thence a road heads through Balochistan to Pakistan’s strategic Gwadar port, as part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
“The specialized Indian troops are familiar with the Tibetan Autonomous Region of China and are tuned for operating at rarefied altitudes,” Hindustan Times reports. “The scale of PLA deployment – two brigades’ strength and more – indicates that the move has the sanction of Beijing and [is] not limited to local military commanders.”
None other than Donald Trump has offered to mediate.
The current flare-up started building in late April, and led to a series of scuffles in early May, described as “aggressive behavior on both sides,” complete with fistfights and stone throwing. The Indian version is that Chinese troops crossed the Line of Actual Control (LAC), with vehicles and equipment, to block road construction by India.
The key area is around a spectacular 135 kilometer-long, 5-7 kilometer-wide lake, Pangong Tso. It’s in Ladakh, which is a de facto extension of the Tibetan plateau. One third is held by India and two thirds by China.
Pangong Lake, on the border between India and China. Photo: AFP / Antoine Boureau / Biosphoto
Mountain folds around the lake are called “fingers.” The Indians say Chinese troops are close to Finger Two – and blocking their movements. India claims territorial rights up to Finger 8, but its de facto holding extends only to Finger 4.
New Delhi has been steadily expanding infrastructure development – and also troop deployments – in Ladakh for nearly a decade. Units now spend longer periods deployed along the LAC than the six months that used to be the standard rotation.
These are called loop battalions: They do a back and forth with the Siachen glacier – which was the theatre of a localized India-Pakistan mini-war in 1999 that I followed closely.
The Indians maintain there are no fewer than 23 “disputed and sensitive” areas along the LAC, with at least 300 “transgressions” by People’s Liberation Army troops every year.
Crossing the line
The Indians are now particularly focused on the situation in the Galwan valley in Ladakh, which they maintain was breached to a distance of 3 to 4 km by PLA troops now in the process of digging defenses.
Diplomatically, it’s all pretty hazy. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs accused Indian troops of “crossing the line” in both Ladakh and Sikkim, as well as “attempting to unilaterally change the status of border control.”
The Indian Foreign Ministry has preferred to maintain that “established mechanisms” should prevail in the end, justifying its relative silence with the explanation that quiet diplomacy between military commanders and officials must take precedence.
That’s in stark contrast with what Indian sources on the ground are stressing: face-off between troops in at least three points in Ladakh and Sikkim; too many Chinese troops at LAC areas patrolled by India; and blocking of Indian patrols in finger areas on the Pangong Tso.
Interestingly, Indian defense sources deny there’s a Chinese troop buildup across the middle sector of the LAC, in Uttarakhand; they see what would qualify as routine “local movements.
India-China border issues are usually settled on the border in meetings between local commanders and officials. Photo: AFP / Indian Defense Ministry / HO
It’s significant that a former Northern Army commander told The Hindu, “Normally stand-offs happen in a local area, but are resolved at the local level.” That pretty much sums up the whole state of affairs along the India-China border and also the India-Pakistan border.
Yet now, added the commander, there seems to be a “higher level in China” in terms of planning, so the skirmishes should be handled diplomatically. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is reviewing the current LAC situation.
Beijing has been mostly quiet about it. Yet the Global Times seems to be distilling the predominant Chinese narrative: India’s poor “are facing an increasingly severe threat of famine.
“Against such a backdrop, it is conceivable that hyping border tensions at this juncture will flare up nationalist sentiment and increase domestic hostility toward Chinese capital, putting unnecessary pressure on bilateral trade and dealing a further blow to the Indian economy already plagued by downturn woes.”
Global Times insists China “clearly has no intention of escalating the border disputes with India,” and prefers to stress the “overall improvement” of their “bilateral economic and trade ties.”
The usual divide-and-rule suspects, for their part, prefer to speculate on the possibility of an India-China LAC mini-war. That’s not likely to happen.
Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, billed as special representatives of India and China, met face to face for the last time in December 2019, discussing an “early settlement of the boundary question.” It looks like they will soon have to meet again.
- Visualizing The COVID-19 Impact On App Popularity
Visualizing The COVID-19 Impact On App Popularity
Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/28/2020 – 23:45Pandemic-induced social isolation has altered the relationship consumers have with technology.
With the physical world now slowly receding, Visual Capitalist’s Katie Jones notes that consumers are suddenly more reliant on apps for communication, shopping, staying healthy, and entertainment.
Today’s graphic pulls data from a new report by MoEngage and Apptopia, and it plots the winners and losers of the pandemic from the app world in North America.
Embracing the App Economy with Open Arms
Consumers are looking for different ways to manage their lives while in lockdown, and in some cases, apps could provide the perfect solution.
In fact, people spent 20% more time using apps in the first quarter of 2020 compared to 2019. During that time, consumers also spent over $23 billion in app stores—the largest spend per quarter recorded to date.
While consumers across the globe lean on apps to support them in times of crisis, what exactly are consumers in North America using?
Climbing to the Top
Given the sheer volume of people working remotely, it’s no surprise to see video chat and online conference apps experiencing explosive growth. In North America, these apps witnessed an astronomical 627% increase in downloads, and a 121% increase in daily active users (DAUs).
Video conferencing app Zoom expanded its worldwide user base by 300% in just under a month. Upwards of 500 participants can attend a meeting at any one time, hence why it has become a popular option for virtual conferences, festivals and even religious sermons. As we adapt to life indoors, the Zoom boom shows no signs of slowing, even despite the app’s recent data privacy and security scandal.
Slowing to a Standstill
Unfortunately, indoor living is not conducive to globetrotting. As travel and hospitality app downloads in North America decline by 12%, this is the harsh reality that the industry needs to come to terms with for the foreseeable future.
Interestingly, airlines in the U.S. did not see a reduction in app downloads until early March, which may be attributed to the later timing of the COVID-19 shutdowns as in comparison to other countries around the world.
In the short-term rentals space, Airbnb has experienced a drastic decline in bookings, and is adopting new cleaning protocols in an attempt to appease both hosts and guests. The tech company has since lowered its internal evaluation, from $31 billion to $26 billion, which could disrupt the company’s plan to go public in 2020.
Emerging Victorious
Because the largest social media networks already boast a significantly large audience, new downloads is not necessarily a metric that could make or break this cohort. Instead, DAUs are a much better indicator of success, and from what the report suggests, people have become more devoted to these platforms.
For U.S. adults, social media usage jumped from 20% of total mobile app usage in the early part of the year, to 25% in mid-March. In fact, between January and March, daily active users on Instagram and Facebook rose to 127 million and 195 million, respectively.
Measuring the Global Impact
When we look at the popularity of apps across different parts of the world, some interesting observations appear. First of all, healthcare apps in South East Asia are categorized as emerging—meaning they show promise, but have minimal active users.
Although DAUs of healthcare apps in South East Asia are declining, fascinatingly, there has been a 110% increase in spend on these apps during the outbreak. The report suggests that this could be attributed to the user base becoming more loyal as a result of trust-building advertising campaigns in this space.
Real estate is a sector seeing a simultaneous increase and decrease in users worldwide. In Middle-East Asia for instance, these apps are exploding in popularity, but in other parts of the world they are experiencing a slowdown. This could be due to restrictions in certain parts of the world slowly starting to lift.
An Unsung Hero
Technology is becoming an increasingly divisive topic. Data security scandals, the spread of false information, and its impact on mental health are just some of the reasons why technology’s role in society regularly comes into question.
However, it has allowed us to remain connected in a time of crisis, and has also been pivotal in facilitating the spread of reliable information during lockdown.
If anything, the pandemic has shown us how vulnerable we are without technology—and how instrumental apps are in keeping us busy, informed, and sane.
- From 9/11 To COVID-19, It's Been A Perpetual State Of Emergency
From 9/11 To COVID-19, It’s Been A Perpetual State Of Emergency
Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/28/2020 – 23:25Authored by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,
“The fundamental political question is why do people obey a government. The answer is that they tend to enslave themselves, to let themselves be governed by tyrants. Freedom from servitude comes not from violent action, but from the refusal to serve. Tyrants fall when the people withdraw their support.”—Étienne De La Boétie, The Politics Of Obedience
Don’t pity this year’s crop of graduates because this COVID-19 pandemic caused them to miss out on the antics of their senior year and the pomp and circumstance of graduation… Pity them because they have spent their entire lives in a state of emergency.
They were born in the wake of the 9/11 attacks; raised without any expectation of privacy in a technologically-driven, mass surveillance state; educated in schools that teach conformity and compliance; saddled with a debt-ridden economy on the brink of implosion; made vulnerable by the blowback from a military empire constantly waging war against shadowy enemies; policed by government agents armed to the teeth ready and able to lock down the country at a moment’s notice; and forced to march in lockstep with a government that no longer exists to serve the people but which demands they be obedient slaves or suffer the consequences.
It’s a dismal start to life, isn’t it?
Unfortunately, we who should have known better failed to maintain our freedoms or provide our young people with the tools necessary to survive, let alone succeed, in the impersonal jungle that is modern America.
We brought them into homes fractured by divorce, distracted by mindless entertainment, and obsessed with the pursuit of materialism. We institutionalized them in daycares and afterschool programs, substituting time with teachers and childcare workers for parental involvement. We turned them into test-takers instead of thinkers and automatons instead of activists.
We allowed them to languish in schools which not only look like prisons but function like prisons, as well—where conformity is the rule and freedom is the exception. We made them easy prey for our corporate overlords, while instilling in them the values of a celebrity-obsessed, technology-driven culture devoid of any true spirituality. And we taught them to believe that the pursuit of their own personal happiness trumped all other virtues, including any empathy whatsoever for their fellow human beings
No, we haven’t done this generation any favors.
Given the current political climate and nationwide lockdown, things could only get worse.
For those coming of age today (and for the rest of us who are muddling along through this dystopian nightmare), here are a few bits of advice that will hopefully help as we navigate the perils ahead.
Be an individual. For all of its claims to champion the individual, American culture advocates a stark conformity which, as John F. Kennedy warned, is “the jailer of freedom, and the enemy of growth.” Worry less about fitting in with the rest of the world and instead, as Henry David Thoreau urged, become “a Columbus to whole new continents and worlds within you, opening new channels, not of trade, but of thought.”
Learn your rights. We’re losing our freedoms for one simple reason: most of us don’t know anything about our freedoms. At a minimum, anyone who has graduated from high school, let alone college, should know the Bill of Rights backwards and forwards. However, the average young person, let alone citizen, has very little knowledge of their rights for the simple reason that the schools no longer teach them. So grab a copy of the Constitution and the Bill of Rights, and study them at home. And when the time comes, stand up for your rights before it’s too late.
Speak truth to power. Don’t be naive about those in positions of authority. As James Madison, who wrote our Bill of Rights, observed, “All men having power ought to be distrusted.” We must learn the lessons of history. People in power, more often than not, abuse that power. To maintain our freedoms, this will mean challenging government officials whenever they exceed the bounds of their office.
Resist all things that numb you. Don’t measure your worth by what you own or earn. Likewise, don’t become mindless consumers unaware of the world around you. Resist all things that numb you, put you to sleep or help you “cope” with so-called reality. Those who establish the rules and laws that govern society’s actions desire compliant subjects. However, as George Orwell warned, “Until they become conscious, they will never rebel, and until after they rebelled, they cannot become conscious.” It is these conscious individuals who change the world for the better.
Don’t let technology turn you into zombies. Technology anesthetizes us to the all-too-real tragedies that surround us. Techno-gadgets are merely distractions from what’s really going on in America and around the world. As a result, we’ve begun mimicking the inhuman technology that surrounds us and have lost our humanity. We’ve become sleepwalkers. If you’re going to make a difference in the world, you’re going to have to pull the earbuds out, turn off the cell phones and spend much less time viewing screens.
Help others. We all have a calling in life. And I believe it boils down to one thing: You are here on this planet to help other people. In fact, none of us can exist very long without help from others. If we’re going to see any positive change for freedom, then we must change our view of what it means to be human and regain a sense of what it means to love and help one another. That will mean gaining the courage to stand up for the oppressed.
Refuse to remain silent in the face of evil. Throughout history, individuals or groups of individuals have risen up to challenge the injustices of their age. Nazi Germany had its Dietrich Bonhoeffer. The gulags of the Soviet Union were challenged by Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn. America had its color-coded system of racial segregation and warmongering called out for what it was, blatant discrimination and profiteering, by Martin Luther King Jr. And then there was Jesus Christ, an itinerant preacher and revolutionary activist, who not only died challenging the police state of his day—namely, the Roman Empire—but provided a blueprint for civil disobedience that would be followed by those, religious and otherwise, who came after him. What we lack today and so desperately need are those with moral courage who will risk their freedoms and lives in order to speak out against evil in its many forms.
Cultivate spirituality, reject materialism and put people first. When the things that matter most have been subordinated to materialism, we have lost our moral compass. We must change our values to reflect something more meaningful than technology, materialism and politics. Standing at the pulpit of the Riverside Church in New York City in April 1967, Martin Luther King Jr. urged his listeners:
[W]e as a nation must undergo a radical revolution of values. We must rapidly begin the shift from a “thing-oriented” society to a “person-oriented” society. When machines and computers, profit motive and property rights are considered more important than people, the giant triplets of racism, materialism, and militarism are incapable of being conquered.
Pitch in and do your part to make the world a better place. Don’t rely on someone else to do the heavy lifting for you. Don’t wait around for someone else to fix what ails you, your community or nation. As Mahatma Gandhi urged: “Be the change you wish to see in the world.”
Stop waiting for political saviors to fix what is wrong with this country. Stop waiting for some political savior to swoop in and fix all that’s wrong with this country. Stop allowing yourselves to be drawn into divisive party politics. Stop thinking of yourselves as members of a particular political party, as opposed to citizens of the United States. Most of all, stop looking away from the injustices and cruelties and endless acts of tyranny that have become hallmarks of American police state. Be vigilant and do your part to recalibrate the balance of power in favor of “we the people.”
Say no to war. Addressing the graduates at Binghampton Central High School in 1968, at a time when the country was waging war “on different fields, on different levels, and with different weapons,” Twilight Zone creator Rod Serling declared:
Too many wars are fought almost as if by rote. Too many wars are fought out of sloganry, out of battle hymns, out of aged, musty appeals to patriotism that went out with knighthood and moats. Love your country because it is eminently worthy of your affection. Respect it because it deserves your respect. Be loyal to it because it cannot survive without your loyalty. But do not accept the shedding of blood as a natural function or a prescribed way of history—even if history points this up by its repetition. That men die for causes does not necessarily sanctify that cause. And that men are maimed and torn to pieces every fifteen and twenty years does not immortalize or deify the act of war… find another means that does not come with the killing of your fellow-man.
Finally, prepare yourselves for what lies ahead. The demons of our age—some of whom disguise themselves as politicians—delight in fomenting violence, sowing distrust and prejudice, and persuading the public to support tyranny disguised as patriotism. Overcoming the evils of our age will require more than intellect and activism. It will require decency, morality, goodness, truth and toughness. As Serling concluded in his remarks to the graduating class of 1968:
“Toughness is the singular quality most required of you… we have left you a world far more botched than the one that was left to us… Part of your challenge is to seek out truth, to come up with a point of view not dictated to you by anyone, be he a congressman, even a minister… Are you tough enough to take the divisiveness of this land of ours, the fact that everything is polarized, black and white, this or that, absolutely right or absolutely wrong. This is one of the challenges. Be prepared to seek out the middle ground … that wondrous and very difficult-to-find Valhalla where man can look to both sides and see the errant truths that exist on both sides. If you must swing left or you must swing right—respect the other side. Honor the motives that come from the other side. Argue, debate, rebut—but don’t close those wondrous minds of yours to opposition. In their eyes, you’re the opposition. And ultimately … ultimately—you end divisiveness by compromise. And so long as men walk and breathe—there must be compromise…
Are you tough enough to face one of the uglier stains upon the fabric of our democracy—prejudice? It’s the basic root of most evil. It’s a part of the sickness of man. And it’s a part of man’s admission, his constant sick admission, that to exist he must find a scapegoat. To explain away his own deficiencies—he must try to find someone who he believes more deficient… Make your judgment of your fellow-man on what he says and what he believes and the way he acts. Be tough enough, please, to live with prejudice and give battle to it. It warps, it poisons, it distorts and it is self-destructive. It has fallout worse than a bomb … and worst of all it cheapens and demeans anyone who permits himself the luxury of hating.”
The only way we’ll ever achieve change in this country is for people to finally say “enough is enough” and fight for the things that truly matter.
It doesn’t matter how old you are or what your political ideology is: wake up, stand up, speak up, and make your citizenship count for something more than just voting.
Pandemic or not, don’t allow your freedoms to be curtailed and your voice to be muzzled.
It’s our civic duty to make the government hear us—and heed us—using every nonviolent means available to us: picket, protest, march, boycott, speak up, sound off and reclaim control over the narrative about what is really going on in this country.
Mind you, the government doesn’t want to hear us. It doesn’t even want us to speak. In fact, as I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, the government has done a diabolically good job of establishing roadblocks to prevent us from exercising our First Amendment right to speech and assembly and protest.
Still we must persist.
So get active, get outraged, and get going: there’s work to be done.
- Volkswagen Goes On Billion Dollar EV Investment Spree In China To Compete Directly With Tesla
Volkswagen Goes On Billion Dollar EV Investment Spree In China To Compete Directly With Tesla
Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/28/2020 – 23:05“Buy when there’s blood in the streets…”
This is likely the adage Volkswagen had in mind during the collapse of China’s car market over the last quarter, as a result of both an auto market mired in pre-virus recession, and the effects of the pandemic and its ensuing lockdowns.
Volkswagen, eager to gain ground on Tesla in the EV space globally, went on an acquisition/investment spree, according to Reuters. The company is now sealing “its largest investments deals with Chinese EV firms”.
Volkswagen will buy 50% of Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Holding, the parent of EV partner JAC Motors for $491 million and will become the largest shareholder of EV battery maker Guoxuan High-tech Co Ltd.
Anhui Jianghuai is fully state owned and has a 25.23% stake in JAC, which has a market value of $1.84 billion. Volkswagen plans to deploy fresh capital with the JV in hopes of building capacity to manufacture with its MEB platform – the company’s architecture for producing EVs efficiently. JAC shares were limit up on the news on Wednesday.
VW will own 27% of Guoxuan via a private placement. The company is valued at $4.3 billion, making the stake worth about $1.16 billion.
The deals make it clear that VW is trying to vertically integrate themselves in order to maintain their title of largest foreign automaker in China, despite Tesla’s efforts. Last year, Tesla became the first foreign automaker to wholly own a car plant in China.
The Chinese government had previously targeted 25% of all car sales to be EV sales by 2025. As we have reported, that goal has been brushed aside momentarily as the Chinese government deals with the consequences of its entire economy shutting down as a result of the coronavirus. The Chinese Passenger Vehicle Association has now estimated that it will not be able to meet its 25% goal in the original timeframe.
VW’s investments make it the latest automaker to increase its ownership in China.
The company said in a statement: “Volkswagen consistently searches for ways to strengthen and deepen our relationships with local partners. In this regard we will explore possible options together with all stakeholders to secure long-term success.”
Recall, just about a week ago, we highlighted the Volkswagen ID 3, the company’s $33,000 entry into the EV market that is expected to compete directly with Tesla.
- What Crypto Is (And Isn't)
What Crypto Is (And Isn’t)
Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/28/2020 – 22:45Authored by Omid Malekan via Medium.com,
The first thing to note about the slide below, which comes from a recent Goldman Sachs presentation that got some crypto enthusiasts in a tizzy, is that all of the listed characteristics of Bitcoin are accurate.
The second thing to note is that it’s just one slide inside a 45 page presentation that’s mostly about gold, and why people shouldn’t invest in either.
If we go back a few years and tell most crypto enthusiasts that come 2020, a major Wall Street outfit would be discussing 10 year old Bitcoin in the same conversation as antediluvian gold, they’d be ecstatic. So most of the complaints on crypto twitter are somewhat misplaced, and betray the inferiority complex that still defines our young industry. Anyone convinced that crypto will go up substantially should celebrate a presentation like this. It gives them something to joke about when they cash out their millions and call Goldman Sachs to open up a private bank account.
That said, I do have a few bones to pick here, starting with the title of the slide.
There is something preposterous about the conclusion that “XYZ is not an asset class.” It’s sort of like saying that a style of painting is not art, or that a certain person is not cool. Who gets to decide such things? Are inverse volatility ETFs prone to the occasional blow up an asset class? How about futures tied to a commodity that may trade deep into negative territory?
Better yet, what about bonds with negative interest rates? The first bullet of the above slide calls out crypto because it “doesn’t generate cash flow like bonds.” Thanks to extreme central bank intervention, neither do an ever growing list of, well, bonds. As with Bitcoin, German Bunds currently “Do Not Generate Cash Flow.” Does that mean European sovereign debt is no longer an asset class?
There are few things in life that I hate more than semantic arguments. They are a waste of my time and never teach me anything. They are also a sign of a lesser mind, a favorite tool of those who can’t engage in a substantive debate and instead distract with pointless arguments over what the meaning of the word is is.
I have no problem with the Consumer and Investment Management division of an investment bank telling its clients not to invest in crypto. It’s probably sage advice given the risk profile and return expectations of their audience. But the reasons given betray a lack of sophistication. For example, consider the following critique found later in the same presentation:
Though individual cryptocurrencies have limited supplies, cryptocurrencies as a whole are not a scarce resource. For example, three of the largest six cryptocurrencies are forks — i.e., nearly identical clones — of Bitcoin (Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, and Bitcoin SV).
True enough – and moronic.
Akin to saying
“though gold itself has limited supplies, metals as a whole are not scarce. For example, aluminum and iron are the third and fourth most abundant elements in the earth’s crust.”
Or better yet:
“though individual social media networks enjoy certain network effects, anyone can start a new social media service by writing a few lines of code. For example, my cousin Joey recently made a knockoff of Instagram called Joeygram”
Bitcoin’s hash rate – the total amount of computing power dedicated to mining – is currently over 30x that of Bitcoin Cash and 50x that of Bitcoin SV. Hash rate is synonymous with security, and security is fundamental to the coin’s scarcity – one reason why Cash and SV both trade at a fraction of the dollar value of Bitcoin (and why cousin’ Joe’s newest venture, Bitcoin Joey, is totally worthless).
There is more cherry picked foolishness within the deck that I won’t spend too much time on, like the “parabolic price appreciation indicates bubble” argument (Zoom stock is up over one million percent since its seed funding round) and the “used in illicit activity” canard (more crime gets committed using dollars in a single day than crypto in a full year).
The biggest takeaway here is the fact that crypto was singled out as something not to invest in, and that this conclusion was communicated by declaring what Bitcoin isn’t. I come across this sort of double-negative analysis in my work within academia and on Wall Street all of the time. The professors say Bitcoin is not money and the bankers announce that crypto is not an asset class. Both remind me of the great Marshall McLuhan, and the observation that the medium is the message.
More telling than what either group believes is how they go about communicating it. It tells us that all of these people, the elites of the old guard, suffer from their own inferiority complex. Some part of them understands that the world is about to change, and that once it does, those who cannot grapple with its unique attributes — things like hash rates, algorithmic scarcity, and the like — will not be as important as they are today. So they perseverate on what the technology isn’t and how the future can’t be.
What they don’t realize is that making something a taboo only accelerates the pace of adoption. There was a time when rap wasn’t music and playing video games wasn’t a career, and it wasn’t that long ago. I don’t know what happened to the experts who said those things, but doubt anyone cares what they have to say about hip-hop or e-sports today.
- "Perfect Storm" Of Auto Thefts Sweeps US During COVID Lockdowns
“Perfect Storm” Of Auto Thefts Sweeps US During COVID Lockdowns
Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/28/2020 – 22:25The link between high unemployment and crime has been realized in a new report that indicates police departments across the country have sounded the alarm on surging auto thefts.
To refresh everyone’s memory, over 38.6 million people have filed for unemployment over a nine-week period, the number of job loss is unprecedented and considered depressionary.
If you take a stroll down main street, it’s littered with commerical “for lease” signs and food banks, as tens of millions of people have fallen into instant poverty.
Before we dish out the shocking crime statistics – the Denver Police Department (DPD) recently said it would be studying crime trends from the last recession to better forecast what could happen during the current economic crash.
“We’re looking at the ebbs and flows that took place to try and anticipate where those challenges would come,” said DPD Chief Paul Pazen. “And more importantly, what are you doing about it?”
Drilling down to specific types of crime, he said spikes in “aggravated assault,” “auto theft,” and “robberies” were seen in the last recession.
A new Associated Press report reveals police data from major cities show auto thefts are surging across the country.
The number of pilfered vehicles soared by a whopping 63% in New York City from January 1 through mid-May, compared with the same period last year. In Los Angeles, the number was 17% during the same period. Salt Lake City saw a 22% rise in car thefts.
“And many other law enforcement agencies around the U.S. are reporting an increase in stolen cars and vehicle burglaries, even as violent crime has dropped dramatically nationwide in the coronavirus pandemic,” AP reported.
In Austin, Texas, auto thefts in April soared 50% over the last year. Austin police Sgt. Chris Vetrano said the virus had created a “perfect storm.”
AP outlined the elements of that storm:
“Drivers are at home and not using or checking their cars regularly. School’s out, so teenagers are trying their luck. Criminals are out of work and have more time on their hands or need fast money to support a drug habit.”
What should be shocking too many is that Baltimore City’s vehicle thefts from autos actually plunged 24% and stolen vehicles dropped 19% over the period when compared to last year (by the way, the numbers from Baltimore are not believable — consider the city is an absolute shithole).
So there you have it, auto thefts surge across the country as coronavirus lockdowns trigger an economic depression with tens of millions of people unemployed. As we’ve outlined in the past, the recovery could take several years, which all suggests, thefts are likely to get worse.
Is this why Americans panic hoarded 9mm ammo earlier this year?
- Thursday Humor: Protestors Criticized For Looting Businesses Without Forming Private Equity Firm First
Thursday Humor: Protestors Criticized For Looting Businesses Without Forming Private Equity Firm First
Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/28/2020 – 22:05Fact… or Fiction?
Calling for a more measured way to express opposition to police brutality, critics slammed demonstrators Thursday for recklessly looting businesses without forming a private equity firm first.
“Look, we all have the right to protest, but that doesn’t mean you can just rush in and destroy any business without gathering a group of clandestine investors to purchase it at a severely reduced price and slowly bleed it to death,” said Facebook commenter Amy Mulrain, echoing the sentiments of detractors nationwide who blasted the demonstrators for not hiring a consultant group to take stock of a struggling company’s assets before plundering.
“I understand that people are angry, but they shouldn’t just endanger businesses without even a thought to enriching themselves through leveraged buyouts and across-the-board terminations.
It’s disgusting to put workers at risk by looting. You do it by chipping away at their health benefits and eventually laying them off. There’s a right way and wrong way to do this.”
At press time, critics recommended that protestors hold law enforcement accountable by simply purchasing the Minneapolis police department from taxpayers.
- Kolanovic "Dials Down" Market Optimism; Warns Of Scenario With "Drastically Lower" Equity Prices
Kolanovic “Dials Down” Market Optimism; Warns Of Scenario With “Drastically Lower” Equity Prices
Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/28/2020 – 21:45One week ago, when JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic laid out a very controversial – to those in the anti-Trump camp – position, that the lockdowns resulting from the coronavirus may have caused more deaths than covid-19 itself, it sparked outrage among liberal circles, and nowhere more so than on CNBC where the JPM quant was literally yelled at by Andrew Ross Sorkin (the former NYT writer must be going through a very stressful period judging by his recent outbursts) for daring to suggest that ending the economy-crippling lockdown – with a presidential election just 6 months away – is the best option.
What is ironic is that in that same note, Kolanovic took a veiled shot at Trump supporters and/or conservatives who actually share Kolanovic’s view, when he wrote that “on the other side of the political spectrum, demagogues and radicals across the world will be tempted to use COVID-19 to blame immigrants, people of different race, or use the pandemic as a pretext to intensify geopolitical tensions.” How amusing then, that none other than one of the young and respected acolytes of liberal media, Andrew Ross Sorkin, ended up screaming at Kolanovic (which judging by the CNBC segment, the JPM quant certainly failed to predict, but then again his crystal ball in the past years has been cloudy on more than one occasion).
In any case, Kolanovic – who as a reminder expects the S&P to hit new all time highs in 2021 – left off his otherwise optimistic note warning cautioning about the emerging political risks, i.e., the politicization of the COVID-19 epidemic, and writing that “blaming the pandemic on an ethnic group or country can provide a convenient excuse for various failings at home, or may provide pretext to push a geopolitical or protectionist agenda. This is perhaps even more dangerous than using the pandemic to further domestic political outcomes.“
Well, fast forward to today, when in yet another note, the JPM quant, perhaps traumtized by his CNBC experience, is decidedly more bearish, and instead of focusing on the reopening of the economy as the base case for his traditionally cheerful outlook, Kolanovic says that he is “dialing down our positive outlook on equities” for two reasons: concerns there won’t be a full reopening of the economy for political reasons, with the same reasons resulting in “geopolitical tensions that could cripple the recovery of global trade.”
The key excerpt from his note is below:
In our last note we highlighted emerging political risks, namely politicization of the COVID-19 epidemic. This could on one side lead to paralysis and delays in reopening the US economy and on the other side to geopolitical tensions that could cripple the recovery of global trade. Reopening the US economy is a complex process that is influenced not just by the virus but also by messages sent by the media and politicians.
We wonder how much of this criticism is geared at Trump and how much at Sorkin.
These can have an impact on consumer behavior. Reopening only half of the economy will not be sufficient to support our current forecast for all-time highs in 2021. On the other side, a complete breakdown of supply chains and international trade, primarily between the two largest economies (US and China), would justify equities trading drastically lower. As the market staged a substantial rally (nearly ~40%) since our out-of consensus bullish call, we are dialing down our positive outlook on equities and would like to see these political risks show signs of normalization.
Ultimately, Kolanovic says that he believes the “abovementioned politicizations of COVID-19 will backfire and will be abandoned, but some self-inflicted damage could perhaps happen first” and while the JPM quant is probably right, but it won’t happen before the elections, and should Trump win the re-election on a anti-China platform, it won’t happen after either.
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- Paul Craig Roberts Asks "Where Did My World Go?"
Paul Craig Roberts Asks “Where Did My World Go?”
Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/28/2020 – 21:25Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,
Change Is Not Always Progress
I remember when there was no tamper-proof and child-proof packaging. That was before multiculturalism and Identity Politics when we could still trust one another and parents accepted responsibility for their children without fobbing it off on a company with a liability claim.
I remember also when there were no state income and sales taxes. States were able to meet their responsibilities without them.
A postage stamp cost one cent. A middle class house was $11,000 and an upper middle class house went fot $20,000. One million dollars was a large fortune. There were no billionaires.
The air museum on the naval base in Pensacola, Florida, has a street reconstructed from the 1940s. The restaurant’s memu offers a complete evening meal for 69 cents.
I was thinking about that as I reviewed a recent Publix supermarket bill: a loaf of bread $3.89, a dozen organic eggs $4.95, a package of 6 hot dogs $5.49, 8 small tomatos $5.19, a package of baby spinach $4.19, a half gallon of milk $4.59, a package of two paper towel rolls $5.99. When I was 5 or 6 years old, my mother would send me to the bakery with a dime for a loaf of bread or to the market with 11 cents for a quart of milk. The Saturday afternoon double-feature at the movie house was 10 cents. A case of Coca-Colas (24 bottles) was one dollar. Ten cents would get you a Pepsi Cola and a Moon Pie, lunch for construction crews. Kids would look for discarded Pepsi Cola bottles on construction sites. In those days there was a two cent deposit on soft drink bottles. One bottle was worth 4 pieces of Double Bubble gum. Five bottles paid for the Saturday double-feature.
Dimes, quarters, and half dollars were silver, and there were silver dollars. The nickle (five cent coin) was nickle, and the penny was copper. FDR took gold away in 1933. The silver coins disappeared in 1965. Our last commodity money, the copper penny, met its demise in 1983. Now they are talking about getting rid of the penny altogether.
Many of us grew up with paper routes for spending money. Other than a paper route, my first employment was the high school summer when I worked the first shift in a cotton mill for $1 an hour. And work it was. After the withholding tax my takehome pay for the 40 hour week was $33.
When I was five years old I could walk safely one mile to school and home by myself without my parents being arrested by Child Protective Services for child neglect and endangerment.
In school we could draw pictures of fighter planes, warships, and guns without being regarded as a danger to our classmates and sent for psychiatric evaluation. Fights were just a part of growing up. The police weren’t called, and we weren’t handcuffed and carted off to jail. Today kids who play cops and robbers or cowboys and Indians and point fingers at one another as pretend guns end up in police custody. A fight means an assault charge and possibly a felony record.
The kind of freedom I had as a child no longer exists except in remote rural areas. When I think about this I wonder if kids today even notice. They live in the virtual world of the video screen and do not know the real world. Catching crawfish in the creek while watching out for cottonmouth moccasins, playing capture the flag over acres of expanse without getting a bad case of poison ivy, organizing a neighbohood ball game, damning up a creek and making a swimming hole. Today these are unknown pleasures.
When it rained we read books. I remember reading Robert Heinlein’s Puppet Masters when I was 12 years old. Do 12 year olds read books today? Can science fiction compete with video games?
I remember when a deal rested on a handshake. Today lawyers tell me even contracts are unenforceable.
We were taught to behave properly so that “you can look yourself in the mirror.” Today you can’t look yourself in the mirror unless you have upstaged or ripped off someone. Character is a thing of the past, as are habits that are today regarded as inappropriate. An older person hoping to get a point across to a younger one would put his or her hand on the younger person’s arm or thigh for attention purposes. Do this today and you get a sexual charge. Both of my grandmothers would probably be locked up as sexual offenders.
Being a tattle-tale was an undesirable and discouraged trait. Today we are encouraged to be tattle-tales. You will hear the encouragement several dozen times while awaiting your flight to be called. Neighbors on quiet cul-de-sacs will call Child Protective Services to report one another’s unsupervised children at play.
I remember when black Americans said they just wanted to be treated like everyone else. That was before racial set-asides in federal government contracts that only black-owned firms can bid on. Once you have special privileges, you don’t want to be like everyone else. Blacks say being white is a privilege. If so, it wasn’t enough privilege for Celeste Bennett’s firm Ultima. Her white privilege and her gender privilege were trumped by black set-aside privilege.
If my parents and grandparents were to be resurrected, they would require a year’s training before it would be safe for them to go about with being arrested. They would have to be educated out of their customary behavior patterns and taught the words and phrases that are today impermissable. They would have trouble comprehending that there are no-go areas in cities. Reading Diana Johnstone’s masterful book, Circle in the Darkness, I remembered the safety of my own youthful years as I read that as a 12 year old she could walk alone around the wharfs of southwest Washington, D.C., in the 1940s unmolested.
I received my new homeowners policy yesterday. It arrived with 89 pages of warnings, definitions, and liability explanations. One can’t really tell if one is insured or not.
I have a 54-year old Jaguar that I have had for 47 years. The owner’s manual tells how to operate and repair the car. A friend showed me the owner’s manual on his 21-year old Porsche. It has more pages of warnings to protect the manufacturer from liability claims than the Jaguar manual has pages of instruction. Today any tool or gadget you buy has more pages of warnings than instruction.
My AARP Medicare supplement insurance policy arrived explaining my meager and expensive covering. It came with a notice letting me know that language assistance services are available for the policy in Spanish, Vietnamese, Tagalog, Russian, Arabic, Haitian Creole, French, Polish, Portuguese, Italian, German, Japanese, Hmong, Llocano, Somali, Greek, Gujarati, and that there is no discrimination because of sex, age, race, color, disability or national origin. The notice provides access to a Civil Rights Coordinator in the event I feel discriminated against. AARP even provides a number to call for help with filing a discrimination complaint.
I do feel discriminated against. But it is not a covered discrimination. I feel like my country has been stolen or that I have been kidnapped and placed in some foreign unknown place that I don’t recognize as home.
I feel the same when I get fundraising appeals from Georgia Tech and Oxford University. Georgia Tech was an all male school consisting primarily of in-state Georgia boys. The Oxford colleges were segregated according to gender—male and female—and the vast majority of the members were British. Today all the colleges except the women’s are gender integrated. White males seldom appear in the photos in the fundraising materials that arrive from Oxford and Georgia Tech. I see lots of women and racial diversity and wonder what university it is. An improvement or not, they are not the schools of which I have memories. The schools I knew have simply been taken away. Something else is there now.
Perhaps it has always been true, but today if you live very long you outlive your world. As your friends die off, no one remembers it correctly but you as you watch your world disappear in misrepresentations to serve present day agendas.
- Will Twitter "Fact-Check" This Tweet From Trump?
Will Twitter “Fact-Check” This Tweet From Trump?
Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/28/2020 – 21:09A few short hours after President Trump unveiled his Executive Order on Social Media censorship and bias, Twitter’s Public Policy Group responded…
This EO is a reactionary and politicized approach to a landmark law. #Section230 protects American innovation and freedom of expression, and it’s underpinned by democratic values. Attempts to unilaterally erode it threaten the future of online speech and Internet freedoms.
— Twitter Public Policy (@Policy) May 29, 2020
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
And just minutes after Twitter dropped that response, President Trump tweeted what can only be described as a ‘test‘ for the newfound freedom of speech lovers at Jack Dorsey’s firm:
MAIL-IN VOTING WILL LEAD TO MASSIVE FRAUD AND ABUSE. IT WILL ALSO LEAD TO THE END OF OUR GREAT REPUBLICAN PARTY. WE CAN NEVER LET THIS TRAGEDY BEFALL OUR NATION. BIG MAIL-IN VICTORY IN TEXAS COURT TODAY. CONGRATS!!!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 29, 2020
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
Basically echoing the exact words that resulted in the social media company’s ‘fact check’ the last time.
So the question is – will they flag his post this time?
Perhaps the executives at Twitter read this post and discovered that Trump is right after all.
- COVID-Coordinators, Restroom-Limits, And Plexiglass-Dividers: How The Largest Hedge Funds Are Preparing To Re-Open
COVID-Coordinators, Restroom-Limits, And Plexiglass-Dividers: How The Largest Hedge Funds Are Preparing To Re-Open
Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/28/2020 – 21:05Hedge funds are going to extreme lengths to try and protect employees returning to work in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic.
Millennium Management is adhering to a lengthy 50 point checklist for re-opening its offices that includes items like air filtration and an application process for staff who want to return to the office, according to Bloomberg. Like their rivals, their plans also include infrared thermometers and plexiglass dividers for between desks.
Staff will be scanned for fever upon walking to the elevator in many buildings. A new type of gloved doorman will await employees, tasked with pressing the buttons on the elevator and making sure that there is a limit to the total number of employees allowed in the building.
The details at Millennium, which has 1,300 employees, also include the details of commuting and vacation planning. Millennium plans on not re-opening some offices until September, at the earliest. Funds are also implementing a longer-term work from home-style approach for many positions.
Barbara Bernstein, chief human resources officer at $12.5 billion Magnetar Capital, said: “You have to rethink all the little things. One thing’s for sure, our offices will look and feel different.”
Her office has been discussing “modular furniture, grab-and-go lunches and foot pedals on stall doors in restrooms”.
Until funds re-open, banks are leading the way in terms of examples, keeping bare-bones crews on board and adopting practices like sanitizing stations to combat the virus. Recall, we noted months ago that Ken Griffith even up and moved his entire office to a makeshift trading floor at the Four Seasons in Palm Beach.
Those same banks are now discussing their measures for re-opening; most of which focus on crowd control. J.P. Morgan, for instance, says it’ll keep offices half full. Citigroup is planning on opening additional offices in New York to spread out its staff.
Offices like Point72 will likely apply the same precautions they used at their Asian offices, like keeping doors open to limit touch areas and increase air flow, and setting up additional sanitizing stations. Millennium will be implementing checkerboard-style seating.
Alifia Doriwala, a managing director at Rock Creek, said: “We’ve bought masks for our staff to wear. We’re thinking of closing the kitchen, and limiting bathroom use to two at a time.”
Firms like Clearbrook Global Advisors have developed a 7 stage plan for re-opening that includes an in-house Covid-19 coordinator and testing the 24 person staff before they return. Employees will also have to take educational training on how to navigate the premises and use masks.
Bridgewater has said it plans on increasing deep cleanings, limit employee mingling (as if there was any at Bridgewater to begin with) and require masks “at least some of the time”.
A survey done in May of more than 50 hedge fund clients found that about 70% of them were starting to look at procedures for re-opening. Many are rearranging floor plans, separating employees and encouraging the use of stairwells instead of elevators. Only 7% of respondents said they would stagger the timing of people coming and going from the building.
Restrooms also remain a problem, since infected particles can linger in the air after a toilet is flushed.
Bernstein concluded: “The pandemic has given us an opportunity to rethink what our office spaces should look like in the future. That includes just how much space we’ll need now that more employees are more likely to work from home.”
- 16 Simple Steps To Deal With Future Respiratory Virus Pandemics
16 Simple Steps To Deal With Future Respiratory Virus Pandemics
Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/28/2020 – 20:45Authored by Koen Swinkels via The Libertarian Institute,
Below are 16 simple steps to deal with future respiratory virus pandemics, crucially without a need for massive government intervention in the form of lockdowns, vaccines, immigration controls, or contact tracing.
In fact, there is no particular reason why people and institutions in a libertarian society would not be able to implement the common sense measures below in a bottom-up way.
Image via Untapped New York Tens of millions of people have already lost their jobs or seen their hours cut, businesses will go under, retirement accounts lose value etc. The economic, financial, political and social consequences of this are devastating and scary to think about.
In addition, the sudden restrictions on civil liberties are unprecedented: People are no longer allowed to take to the streets to protest; many are not even allowed to visit friends or family or go to their job unless government deems that job “essential”.
* * *
Here are 16 simple steps to deal with any major future respiratory virus pandemics that again — could be implemented in a localized, bottom-up way:
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Cancel events with large crowds, especially indoor events (but keep beaches, parks, cities, playgrounds etc open).
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Avoid closed or poorly ventilated spaces where multiple people spend a prolonged period of time, especially when they are laughing, singing, shouting or talking.
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When it’s not possible to do #2 and #3, wear masks in those situations.
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Everybody should wear face masks in public transport & crowds. Everywhere else is up to people’s own discretion.
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Isolate infected patients from others: Create special, isolated facilities either within or outside of hospitals and nursing homes.
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Don’t send infected patients (back) to nursing homes.
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Quarantine carers with (non-infected) nursing home residents & pay >500% overtime.
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Quarantine & protect the vulnerable (the elderly, people with serious other illnesses), and provide them with all the services they need.
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Keep everything else open: Let the young and healthy live their lives.
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Promote spending time outdoors.
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When possible, move activities outdoors.
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Open windows.
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Install or fix ventilation systems.
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Create virus clinics and telemedicine so that suspected virus patients don’t have to go to doctors where they may infect others.
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Everybody who tests positive or is a suspected patient receives a pulse oximeter and a thermometer to continually monitor their oxygen levels and temperature.
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Order ample PPE supplies before the pandemic starts.
That’s it.
So in the end, @NYGovCuomo killed Grandma AND flattened the economy.
With a policy that was at once overinclusive (too broad and long a showdown) AND underinclusive (committing eldercide at nursing homes). https://t.co/lcxzYvZEiS
— Sohrab Ahmari (@SohrabAhmari) May 25, 2020
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For many more suggestions (as well as references to academic research) for reopening the economy while limiting the damage Covid-19 is doing, see here.
But if we implement the 16 measures mentioned above, most of these 58 measures are probably unnecessary.
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- Global Ad Spending Plunges As Hopes For V-shaped Recovery Fade
Global Ad Spending Plunges As Hopes For V-shaped Recovery Fade
Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/28/2020 – 20:25As economic paralysis continues, global advertisement spending is set to collapse this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic, according to WARC, an international marketing intelligence firm.
WARC tracks 96 markets worldwide, expects ad dollars to decline by 8.1% ($49.6 billion) to $563 billion this year. The forecast was initially an expansion of 7.1% for 2020, but those figures were quickly revised for a post-corona world.
The report said traditional media ” will fare far worse than online,” with ad spending set to plunge $51.4 billion (-16.3%) this year. Much of the declines are seen across cinema (-31.6%), out of home (-21.7%), magazines (-21.5%), newspapers (-19.5%), radio (-16.2%) and TV (-13.8%). The good news, online advertising will see a slight expansion (+.06%).
Coronavirus lockdowns have wrecked households in both hemispheres. High unemployment plagues nearly every economy, along with plunging cash flows for businesses, who have now been forced to trim expenses and pull back on ad spending.
One of the hardest-hit areas for estimated ad spending this year is the travel and tourism industry, with an expected decline of 31.2%. Spending will likely remain depressed for several years as consumers avoid airplanes, cruise ships, hotels, casinos, etc., for fears of contracting the virus.
The slump in advertising has yet to surpass the record decline seen in 2009 when the global ad market contracted by 12.7%. The report notes an election year in the US could cushion ad spending.
James McDonald, WARC’s head of data content, said: “We note three distinct phases to the current downturn: firstly, an immediate demand-side induced paralysis for sectors such as travel, leisure, and retail, combined with supply-side constraints for CPG brands. Second, the recessionary tailwind will exert extreme pressure on the financial services sector as well as the consumer, whose disposable income is now heavily diminished.”
“Finally, as the world takes tentative steps towards a recovery, there will be an added emphasis on healthcare and wellbeing credentials among brands not normally associated with the field, aside higher spending within the pharmaceutical sector to leverage the shifting consumer mindset,” McDonald said.
Without an expansion in global ad spending, this all suggests economic activity in every major and emerging economy will remain depressed through this year and into next, thwarting any chance a V-shaped recovery will be seen in the back half of 2020.
- Brazil Reports Another Record Jump In Cases As Global Total Nears 6 Million: Live Updates
Brazil Reports Another Record Jump In Cases As Global Total Nears 6 Million: Live Updates
Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/28/2020 – 20:09Summary:
- Brazil reports another record jump in new cases
- Boston Marathon cancelled
- North Carolina reports 827 deaths
- Premier League soccer to re-start June 17
- NY reports just 74 deaths for the second day in a row.
- Italy reports <100 deaths for 4th time in 5 days
- Trump tweets condolences
- Brazil cases top 400k
- South Korea reports alarming jump in cases
- Blue House mulls reinstating strict social distancing measures
- Philippines President to end Manila lockdown
- Denmark decision to partially reopen schools deemed a ‘success’
- New evidence of ‘Community Spread’ found in certain African countries
* * *
Update (1945ET): As the number of confirmed coronavirus cases draws inexorably closer to the 6 million mark, Brazil has once again proven itself the largest contributor to the daily global total, especially now that the number of cases confirmed daily in Russia has seemingly finally started to cool (relatively speaking).
On Thursday evening, Brazilian public health officials confirmed that the country had added another 26,417 confirmed cases to the national total – yet another daily record – as some experts warned Brazil might already be home to the largest outbreak in the world, or that it’s at least on par with the ~1.7 million confirmed cases in the US.
Like his erstwhile ally President Trump, who recently slapped severe travel restrictions on Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro has sought to distract the public and energize his base by persecuting former allies, including the conservative governor of Rio de Janeiro, whose home was raided by Brazilian federal police in connection with a corruption probe (several of Governor Wilson Witzel’s predecessors were ousted by corruption scandals) earlier this week, and antagonize the country’s judiciary.
Earlier this month, a tape of a cabinet meeting surfaced where one of Bolsonaro’s ministers can be heard calling for the Brazilian judiciary to be imprisoned. Now, Bolsonaro is castigating the Brazilian Supreme Court over a “fake news” investigation into his allies, Reuters reports.
In a rare departure from the partisan rancor that has paralyzed government in the Trump era, a bipartisan group of senators offered a $3 billion plan to prepare for the next global health crisis, or perhaps even a second wave of COVID-19. Senator Jim Risch, Republican chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, and Democratic committee members Chris Murphy and Ben Cardin, introduced the bill. The group said they have “high hopes” about its prospects for becoming a law.
The measure, which was introduced last week but announced on Thursday, would authorize $3 billion to rebuild the US pandemic defense system, invest in global vaccine developments and offer direct aid to help poorer nations build their health-care systems, Reuters said.
* * *
Update (1500ET): For the first time in its nearly 125-year history, the Boston Marathon has been cancelled, and will be replaced by a virtual race in September.
The @BAA has announced that the 124th Boston Marathon will be held as a virtual event, following Boston Mayor Martin Walsh’s cancellation of the marathon as a mass participation road running event due to the COVID-19 pandemic. pic.twitter.com/tlIdvsU9sq
— Boston Marathon (@bostonmarathon) May 28, 2020
All participants who were originally registered for the April 20, 2020 event will be offered a full refund & will be able to use their qualifying time for 2021 Boston Marathon registration next fall. The beginning of the qualifying window for the 2021 Boston Marathon is 9/15/18.
— Boston Marathon (@bostonmarathon) May 28, 2020
In other news: Yesterday, California became the fourth US state to pass 100k infections. It joins Illinois (115,000), New Jersey (157,000) and New York (370,000), with just over 101,000 cases confirmed.
The number of coronavirus cases confirmed around the global surpassed 5.9 million on Thursday, leaving it on track to pass 6 million in the next day or two.
* * *
Update (1400ET): North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper just reported one of the state’s largest one-day jump in deaths – 827 – as it continues to reopen its economy and ramp up testing capacity.
Updates from Gov. Cooper’s COVID-19 briefing: https://t.co/sVKSDa28AI
— Governor Roy Cooper (@NC_Governor) May 28, 2020
As of today, we have 25,412 confirmed cases, 708 people in the hospital and 827 people who have died. Today is one of our state’s highest days of reported deaths and hospitalizations since this crisis began.
— Governor Roy Cooper (@NC_Governor) May 28, 2020
Nationwide, we have passed a grim benchmark with more than 100,000 lost to COVID-19. We continue to pray for the families left behind in the wake of this cruel virus. And we remind ourselves that these aren’t just numbers, they are people who have died.
— Governor Roy Cooper (@NC_Governor) May 28, 2020
In North Carolina, our case count has continued to go up. We know that one reason for this is increased testing, which is critical to reigniting our economy and keeping people safe. We’ve increased our testing significantly.
— Governor Roy Cooper (@NC_Governor) May 28, 2020
The @ncdhhs COVID-19 website now has an interactive tool to find a testing site in your area. It includes more than 300 places where you can go and get tested. And we have more than 30 private companies and hospitals doing the lab work on the samples to get COVID-19 results.
— Governor Roy Cooper (@NC_Governor) May 28, 2020
Today, another private partner, CVS, has announced 55 new drive through testing locations all across North Carolina. We’re glad to have another retail store that offers testing, especially as we work to make testing available to historically underserved communities.
— Governor Roy Cooper (@NC_Governor) May 28, 2020
COVID-19 is shining a bright light on longstanding inequalities in health care. Yesterday, our Department of Health and Human Services launched a radio and video campaign to share important messages about COVID-19 to historically marginalized populations.
— Governor Roy Cooper (@NC_Governor) May 28, 2020
African American and Hispanic communities make up a disproportionate number of our state’s lab-confirmed cases and deaths compared with their percentage of the population. And we must focus on how we can identify these disparities, and most importantly, work to fix them.
— Governor Roy Cooper (@NC_Governor) May 28, 2020
It’s important to keep this gap in mind both for the location of testing sites but also in contact tracing. Community Cares of North Carolina now has hired almost all of the 250 staff members that we need to get more contact tracing help in our local health departments.
— Governor Roy Cooper (@NC_Governor) May 28, 2020
Contact tracing is more effective when that workforce is diverse and representative of the people they serve, and these new hirings show that. This is critical work that’ll help people know if they’ve been exposed to the virus and whether to monitor for symptoms or quarantine.
— Governor Roy Cooper (@NC_Governor) May 28, 2020
Across the globe, our country and our state, we know that this virus has hurt the economy. Today, I’m pleased to announce that North Carolina has received a federal grant from the US Department of Labor to support job training and temporary employment opportunities.
— Governor Roy Cooper (@NC_Governor) May 28, 2020
Our Commerce Department’s Division of Workforce Solutions requested the funds and they will partner with local workforce development boards throughout North Carolina.
— Governor Roy Cooper (@NC_Governor) May 28, 2020
People are eligible to participate if they have been laid off due to COVID-19. The funds can help pay for on-the-job training, temporary positions focused on COVID-19, or short-term training for workers to learn new skills that are now in demand.
— Governor Roy Cooper (@NC_Governor) May 28, 2020
This $6 million grant will help our Commerce Department set up these programs and the state of North Carolina will continue to carry the torch forward as we focus on helping people get back on their feet.
— Governor Roy Cooper (@NC_Governor) May 28, 2020
As we are now six days into Safer At Home Phase 2, please continue to look out for each other. Show respect for those workers still trying to navigate this pandemic to keep their customers safe and keep their businesses open. Be courteous to one another when you’re out and about.
— Governor Roy Cooper (@NC_Governor) May 28, 2020
Remember the 3 Ws – wear a face covering, wash your hands, wait 6 feet apart. Yes, you’ve heard these basic safety steps a lot, but they are mighty tools that each of us has to fight this virus. Never underestimate their importance. And let’s not let our guard down.
— Governor Roy Cooper (@NC_Governor) May 28, 2020
The governor continued to urge his citizens to wear masks and wash their hands, while continuing to social distance.
* * *
Update (1330ET): Premier League soccer is set to restart its suspended season on June 17 with two matches, Aston Villa and Sheffield United, and Manchester City v Arsenal, unless the government decides against the league’s plan.
A full round will follow on the weekend of June 19-21, according to the BBC.
There are still 92 matches to play in the season, and from here on out, all matches will take place behind closed doors and will be broadcast live on Sky Sports, BT Sport, BBC Sport and/or Amazon Prime. BBC Sport said it would air 4 live matches.
“The Premier League and our clubs are proud to have incredibly passionate and loyal supporters,” Premier League chief executive Richard Masters said.
“It is important to ensure as many people as possible can watch the matches at home.”
[…]
Masters added that the resumption date would not be confirmed “until we have met all the safety requirements needed.”
Safety guidelines are yet to be issued by the government and decisions will remain subject to the government’s strategy for suppressing the virus while moving away from lockdown.
Play was suspended on March 13. When it restarts next month, it will have been exactly 100 days since Leicester City’s 4-0 win over Aston Villa on March 9, which marked the last game played in the season before the pandemic forced the suspension of play.
* * *
Update (1200ET): As NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio and Gov Cuomo say the city will likely enter ‘Phase 1’ of the reopening some time in June, Italy has reported its latest results. Across the country, only 70 deaths were recorded over the past 24 hours – fewer deaths than were recorded in the state of New York, which has a population 1/3rd the size of Italy. Officials reported 70 deaths, the fourth time in the past 5 days where fewer than 100 deaths have been reported.
Italy also reported 593 new cases on Thursday, bringing its total to 231,732, while the death toll hit 33,142 deaths.
Cuomo said Thursday that NYC needs to figure out “contact tracing” and “public transit” before it can safely reopen. The city has hired an army of contact tracers.
He also discussed the importance of “uniform standards” across the state. State rules and metrics to reopen New York City are the same rules and metrics to reopen all other regions of the state. “What is safe to reopen is safe, and if it’s safe for your family, it’s safe for my family,” Cuomo says. “I’m not going to reopen any region that I do not believe is safe.”
* * *
Update (1155ET): As scientists parse the effectiveness of lockdowns, here’s another reason to suggest that the more strict, more timely and more short-lived approach has shown compelling results.
India took 118 days to reach 150,000 cases. Much slower than countries like:
Spain- 68 days
Turkey – 68 days
US – 69 days
Italy – 71 days
Brazil – 73 days
France – 86 days
Germany – 86 days
UK – 86 days
Russia – 95 daysAll because of timely lockdown!#IndiaUnitedAgainstCovid
— Amit Malviya (@amitmalviya) May 28, 2020
Still, as the NYT highlighted today in a summary of recent research, there’s little evidence to suggest that the world is anywhere near ‘herd immunity’ levels.
It also designed a nifty chart to illustrate the ‘surveillance’ penetration estimates in various ‘hot spots’
* * *
Update (1140ET): Before we start, remember…
Wear a mask. It’s the right thing to do. https://t.co/vT4hEezgyZ
— Andrew Cuomo (@NYGovCuomo) May 28, 2020
…the CDC recommends people wear masks when indoors or anywhere with poor ventilation, and anywhere people might be around crowds, though, to be sure, research suggests that active copies of the virus don’t linger in the air long enough to be infectious (though being within 6 feet of another might put you at risk of being hit by a stray bit of infectious saliva).
Now, Cuomo is launching into his latest press briefing, laying out plans for more businesses to reopen across the state.
Holding a briefing with updates on #Coronavirus. Watch Live: https://t.co/RZNEHiaWwX
— Andrew Cuomo (@NYGovCuomo) May 28, 2020
For the second straight day, New York State recorded exactly 74 deaths, bringing the total death count above 23,600.
NYS #Coronavirus Update 5/28
People in hospitals: DOWN
Intubations: DOWN
New hospitalizations: DOWN (163)Deaths:
Last 24 hours: 74
Total: 23,7174 consecutive days with daily #Covid19 deaths under 100 #nbc4ny pic.twitter.com/1jXwCDi24t
— Steven Bognar (@Bogs4NY) May 28, 2020
“This is always painful,” Cuomo, who’s holding his briefing in Brooklyn today, acknowledged, as he always does. He also reported that the number of hospitalized patients around the state has fallen to ~4,000, with only 163 new patients admitted over the last day.
Of course, it wouldn’t be a Cuomo presser without him griping about the federal government abandoning NY.
Some states like Alaska & Wyoming got over $2 million in federal relief PER case.
NY got only $23,840 per case.
We are one country. Stop the politics. Fund states based on need.
— Andrew Cuomo (@NYGovCuomo) May 28, 2020
Interestingly, Massachusetts last night said it recorded 527 new coronavirus cases and 74 new deaths. Will mass also report sub-100 deaths for another day on Thursday.
Meanwhile, in the UK, the latest figures have just been released.
As of 9am 28 May, there have been 3,918,079 tests, with 119,587 tests on 27 May.
269,127 people have tested positive.
As of 5pm on 27 May, of those tested positive for coronavirus, across all settings, 37,837 have sadly died. pic.twitter.com/zj0HjOtMDG
— Department of Health and Social Care (@DHSCgovuk) May 28, 2020
As investigations into outbreaks at long-term care homes (including nursing homes) continue across the US and around the world, Virginia has released data on Thursday showing more than half of total COVID deaths in the state involved LTC patients.
Virginia reports. +24 LTC deaths; all others +33. Batch 42.1%.
Totals now 755 LTC all others 583.
56.4% of Virginia COVID deaths are in LTC.
An estimated 1.3% of Virginia’s LTC population has died with COVID.https://t.co/udR43akdhy
— Phil Kerpen (@kerpen) May 28, 2020
* * *
With Johns Hopkins finally confirming that the US death toll had passed the 100k mark…
…President Trump tweeted his condolences to the families of all those who lost loved ones during the pandemic.
We have just reached a very sad milestone with the coronavirus pandemic deaths reaching 100,000. To all of the families & friends of those who have passed, I want to extend my heartfelt sympathy & love for everything that these great people stood for & represent. God be with you!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 28, 2020
With the US temporarily preoccupied by looting in Minneapolis and elsewhere – the focus during the early morning hours was on Asia, as Japanese health officials reported a new cluster: A hospital in Koganei city, located on the outskirts of Tokyo, have confirmed 3 infected patients, with 18 more reporting symptoms, including a fever. South Korea recently uncovered a ‘silent’ cluster after testing tens of thousands of people who had traveled to a popular nightlife district of Seoul one evening after a nightclubber tested positive, raising fears of a new ‘superspreader’ cluster.
With testing ramping up once again, officials are reportedly weighing whether to revive more-strict social distancing rules due to a recent increase in confirmed cases.
The 79 new cases of COVID-19 reported Thursday by SK health officials was the highest single-day total seen in nearly eight weeks. The total number of infections now stands at 11,344 in the country of 51 million.
In the Philippines, President Rodrigo Duterte approved a recommendation to ease the lockdown in the capital Manila beginning on June 1 as he tries to pull his country’s economy back from the brink of what would likely be a bruising recession.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel urged her fellow world leaders to provide more money to multinational NGOs like the UN and WHO in the name of accelerating the global recovery from the virus.
Expanding on that point, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres agitated for more comprehensive sovereign debt relief for the poorest nations, insisting that “relief must be extended to all developing, middle-income countries that request forbearance as they lose access to financial markets” amid the coronavirus pandemic.
Later today, PM Johnson will set out the next steps on easing Britain’s lockdown, describing what will be possible from June 1.
As France and Germany abandon the drugs, Indonesia said Thursday it will continue to prescribe two anti-malarial drugs – chloroquine and its derivative, hydroxychloroquine – for coronavirus patients but monitor their use closely.
UK police have said Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s senior adviser Dominic Cummings did breach the coronavirus lockdown but that it was minor and they will take no further action, the Telegraph has reported.
Though Africa has been largely spared the brunt of the global outbreak, Al Jazeera warned that cases of community transmission of the coronavirus are growing, particularly in Ethiopia, and that a new strategy for testing is needed to prevent further spread.
“We are beginning to see sustained community transmission within Ethiopia and many other countries across Africa. That means we need to increase our public health measures like distancing, wearing of masks, washing of hands,” Head of the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention John Nkengasong told journalists.
Brazil recorded more than 1,000 new deaths from the coronavirus over the past day, officials said Wednesday. The 1,086 new casualties bring the total number of deaths to 25,598. With 20,599 new cases, one of the largest single-day increases yet, the number of infected people has reached 411,821.
And finally, a partial reopening of schools in Denmark has not lead to an increase in coronavirus infections among pupils, a doctor of infectious disease epidemiology and prevention at the Danish Serum Institute said Thursday, citing newly released government data.
Denmark was one of the first countries to reopen, as it allowed some younger students – up to the fifth grade – to return to school on April 15 after a month-long break.
“You cannot see any negative effects from the reopening of schools,” the scientist said. In the US, NJ Gov Phil Murphy said earlier this week that he would allow outdoor high school graduation ceremonies to continue.
- Rioting In Minneapolis Is So Bad, The Fires Show Up On Air Quality Maps
Rioting In Minneapolis Is So Bad, The Fires Show Up On Air Quality Maps
Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/28/2020 – 20:05Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,
The rioting in Minneapolis last night was so bad that the fires from the burning buildings show up on this morning’s air quality control maps.
Looters rampaged through nearby stores having earlier staged violent protests outside the 3rd Precinct police station in response to the death-by-cop of George Floyd.
Target, McDonalds, Dollar Tree, Wendy’s, two liquor stores and AutoZone were all attacked and looted.
Air quality maps from the area of the riots show diminished air quality as a result of the sheer intensity of the fires which engulfed several buildings.
The fires in Minneapolis are so bad that they’re showing up on air quality maps. pic.twitter.com/ZMY3Hvd13M
— Kansas Zoomer (@KansasZoomer) May 28, 2020
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One of the buildings targeted was an affordable housing block under construction that was completely burned to the ground.
“An affordable housing complex under construction near the corner of Lake and Minnehaha caught fire early Thursday, quickly engulfing an entire city block. Smoke from the multi-story building was visible from miles away,” reports the Minneapolis Star-Tribune.
“Dozens stood and filmed the fireball until they realized that adjacent buildings were in danger. People grabbed garden hoses and barrels to try to save their own houses from a similar fate.”
Burning down an affordable housing block to fight systematic racism and police brutality! Incredible.
* * *
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- Here's How 'Rare' Trend Of Pay Cuts For Employed Nationwide Spells Doom For Rapid Recovery
Here’s How ‘Rare’ Trend Of Pay Cuts For Employed Nationwide Spells Doom For Rapid Recovery
Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/28/2020 – 19:45Bloomberg has issued the latest deeply pessimistic report suggesting ‘return to normal’ will be a long way off amid mounting evidence of widespread pay cuts for those Americans managing to hold on to their jobs amid Great Depression level unemployment.
File image via Small Biz Daily Flying in the face of “sticky wages” theory — Keynes’ observation that employee pay doesn’t adjust quickly to either company performance or external economic crises — the growing body of anecdotal evidence points to widespread temporary salary reductions.
Observes Bloomberg:
Outside of “high-demand sectors such as grocery stores,” there are signs of “general wage softening and salary cuts” all over the economy, according to a Fed business survey in April. A study by Thomvest Ventures, which looked at 22 public and private technology companies, found that non-executive employees had seen pay reduced by an average of 10% to 15%.
“The hard numbers won’t be in for months, but anecdotal evidence is piling up. On earnings calls, big businesses including The Container Store Group and Lyft have cited what they say are temporary salary reductions,” the report continues.
“Federal Reserve officials also have found plenty of supporting evidence.”
Via Bloomberg/US Dept. of Labor The obvious concern in terms of broader recovery and its speed amid impending state re-openings is that even among those comfortably still in the workforce, more of their income will go toward fixed obligations like mortgages, car payments, or other debts — leaving them much more conservative in terms of the type of ‘outside’ retail, dining, or entertainment type spending that typically drives economic recovery.
Chief US economist at Barclays Plc in New York, Michael Gapen, told Bloomberg: “It’s one of the reasons why we don’t expect a so-called V-shaped recovery.”
Gaben underscored that employees undergoing pay cuts “might have little, and in some cases maybe nothing, left over after that for discretionary purchases.”
Even as employers let tens of millions of workers go, some companies are choosing a different path, instituting across-the-board salary reductions, especially at senior levels, avoiding layoffs. https://t.co/B51MI2GtmH
— The Seattle Times (@seattletimes) May 27, 2020
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Another insight that helps explain why the traditional sticky wages trend is not holding up amid the corona-crisis is as follows:
The circumstances of a public-health crisis probably make pay cuts more palatable to workers than they’d normally be, according to Bruce Fallick, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland -– at least initially.
“If the state of Ohio tells you you have to shut down, or you can only have customers if they’re spaced by this amount, and they can only come in at this rate, and all that sort of thing, it’s pretty obvious to everybody what’s going on,” he said.
The report concludes further, “And there’s no guarantee salaries will return quickly to pre-crisis levels.”
Combine this also with the potential for Americans exhibiting a slow or hesitantly reluctant return to activities like eating out, going to retail shops, or attending large entertainment venue events like concerts or movie theaters even when these things do reopen to normal capacity.
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