Today’s News 3rd December 2021

• Escobar: The NATOstan Clown Show
  Escobar: The NATOstan Clown Show

  Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Saker blog,

  American hysteria over the “imminent” Russian invasion of Ukraine has exploded every geopolitical Stupid-o-Meter in sight – and that’s quite an accomplishment.

  What a mess. Sections of the U.S. Deep State are in open revolt against the combo that remote controls Crash Test Dummy, who impersonates POTUS. The neocon-neoliberal axis is itching for a war – but has no idea how to sell it to an immensely fractured public opinion.

  

  UKUS, which de facto controls the Five Eyes spy scam, excels only in propaganda.

  So in the end it’s up to the CIA/MI6 intel axis and their vast network of media chihuahuas to accelerate Fear and Loathing ad infinitum.

  Russophobic U.S. Think Tankland would very much cherish a Russian “invasion”, out of the blue, and could not give a damn about the inevitable trouncing of Ukraine. The problem is the White House – and the Pentagon – must “intervene”, forcefully; otherwise that will represent a catastrophic loss of “credibility” for the Empire.

  So what do these people want? They want to provoke Moscow by all means available to exercise “Russian aggression”, resulting in a lightning fast war that will be a highway to hell for Ukraine, but with zero casualties for NATO and the Pentagon.

  Then the Empire of Chaos will blame Russia; unleash a tsunami of fresh sanctions, especially financial; and try to shut off all economic links between Russia and NATOstan.

  Reality dictates that none of the above is going to happen.

  All exponents of Russian leadership, starting with President Putin, have already made it clear, over and over again, what happens if the Ukro-dementials start a blitzkrieg over Donbass: Ukraine will be mercilessly smashed – and that applies not only to the ethno-fascist gang in Kiev. Ukraine will cease to exist as a state.

  Defense Minister Shoigu, for his part, has staged all manner of not exactly soft persuasion, featuring Tu-22M3 bombers or Tu-160 White Swan bombers.

  The inestimable Andrei Martyanov has conclusively explained, over and over again, that “NATO doesn’t have forces not only to ‘counter-act’ anything Russia does but even if it wanted to it still has no means to fight a war with Russia.”

  Martyanov notes, “there is nothing in the U.S. arsenal now and in the foreseeable future which can intercept Mach=9-10+, let alone M=20-27, targets. That’s the issue. Same analytical method applies to a situation in 404. The only thing U.S. (NATO) can hope for is to somehow provoke Russia into the invasion of this shithole of a country and then get all SIGINT it can once Russia’s C4ISR gets into full combat mode.”

  Translation: anything the Empire of Chaos and its NATO subsidiary try in Donbass, directly or indirectly, the humiliation will make the Afghanistan “withdrawal” look like a House of Gucci dinner party.

  No one should expect clueless NATO puppets – starting with secretary-general Stoltenberg – to understand the military stakes. After all, these are the same puppets who have been building up a situation which might ultimately leave Moscow with a single, stark choice: be ready to fight a full scale hot war in Europe – which could become nuclear in a flash. And ready they are.

  It’s all about Minsk

  In a parallel reality, “meddling in 404” – a delightful Martyanov reference to a hellhole that is little more than a computer error – is a totally different story. That perfectly fits American juvenilia ethos.

  At least some of the adults in selected rooms are talking. The CIA’s Burns went to Moscow to try to extract some assurance that in the event NATO Special Forces were caught in the cauldrons – Debaltsevo 2015-style – that the People’s Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk, with Russian help, will concoct, they would be allowed to escape.

  His interlocutor, Patrushev, told Burns – diplomatically – to get lost.

  Chief of the General Staff, Gen Valery Gerasimov, had a phone call with Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Gen Mark Milley, ostensibly to ensure, in Pentagonese, “risk-reduction and operational de-confliction”. No substantial details were leaked.

  It remains to be seen how this “de-confliction” will happen in practice when Defense Minister Shoigu revealed U.S. nuclear-capable bombers have been practicing, in their sorties across Eastern Europe, “their ability to use nuclear weapons against Russia”. Shoigu discussed that in detail with Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe: after all the Americans will certainly pull the same stunt against China.

  The root cause of all this drama is stark: Kiev simply refuses to respect the February 2015 Minsk Agreement.

  In a nutshell, the deal stipulated that Kiev should grant autonomy to Donbass via a constitutional amendment, referred to as “special status”; issue a general amnesty; and start a dialogue with the people’s republics of Donetsk and Lugansk.

  Over the years, Kiev fulfilled exactly zero commitments – while the proverbial NATOstan media machine incessantly pounded global opinion with fake news, spinning that Russia was violating Minsk. Russia is not even mentioned in the agreement.

  Moscow in fact always respected the Minsk Agreement – which translates as regarding Donbass as an integral, autonomous part of Ukraine. Moscow has zero interest in promoting regime change in Kiev.

  This charade has come to a point that – diplomatically – is quite unprecedented: Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov lost his Taoist patience.

  Lavrov was forced, under the circumstances, to publish 28 pages of correspondence between Moscow on one hand, and Berlin and Paris on the other, evolving around the preparation of a high-level meeting on Ukraine.

  Moscow was in fact calling for one of the central points of the agreement to be implemented: a direct dialogue between Kiev and Donbass. Berlin and Paris said this was unacceptable. So yes: both, for all practical purposes, destroyed the Minsk Agreement. Public opinion across NATOstan has no idea whatsoever this actually happened.

  Lavrov did not mince his words: “I am sure that you understand the necessity of this unconventional step, because it is a matter of conveying to the world community the truth about who is fulfilling, and how, the obligations under international law that have been agreed at the highest level.”

  So it’s no wonder that the leadership in Moscow concluded it’s an absolute waste of time to talk to Berlin and Paris about Ukraine: they lied, cheated – and then blamed Russia. This “decision” at the EU level faithfully mirrors NATO’s campaign of stoking the flames of imminent “Russian aggression” against Ukraine.

  Armchair warriors, unite!

  Across NATOstan, the trademark stupidity of U.S. Think Tankland rules unabated, congregating countless acolytes spewing out the talking points of choice: “relentless Russian subversion”, “thug” Putin “intimidation” of Ukraine, Russians as “predators”, and everything now coupled with “power-hungry China’s war on Western values.”

  Some Brit hack, in a twisted way, actually managed to sum up the overall impotence – and insignificance – by painting Europe as a victim, “a beleaguered democratic island in an anarchic world, which a rising tide of authoritarianism, impunity and international rule-breaking threatens to inundate”.

  The answer by NATOstan Defense Ministers is to come up with a Strategic Compass – essentially an anti-Russia-China scam – complete with “rapid deployment forces”. Led by who, General Macron?

  As it stands, poor NATOstan is uncontrollably sobbing, accusing those Russian hooligans – scary monsters, to quote David Bowie – of staging an anti-satellite missile test and thus “scorning European safety concerns”.

  Something must have got lost in translation. So here’s what happened: Russia conclusively demonstrated it’s capable of obliterating each and every one of NATO’s satellites and blind “all their missiles, planes and ships, not to mention ground forces” in case they decide to materialize their warmongering ideas.

  Obviously those deaf, dumb and blind NATOstan armchair warrior clowns – fresh from their Afghan “performance” – won’t get the message. But NATOstan anyway was never accused of being partial to reality.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 12/03/2021 – 00:00

• Singapore Power Prices Spike 1,290% As Energy Crisis Emerges 
  Singapore Power Prices Spike 1,290% As Energy Crisis Emerges 

  The global energy crisis continues to worsen with its latest victim Singapore. Power prices in the Southeast Asian country saw a dramatic surge in wholesale power prices. 

  According to Bloomberg, provisional Uniform Singapore Energy Price jumped S$4,499 ($3,293) per megawatt-hour, the highest on record or about a 1,290% jump in the last few days. Just on Tuesday, prices were S$323.61 ($236.60). 

  

  The dramatic price increase in wholesale power reflects the persistent global energy crisis. It doesn’t help when 95% of the country’s electricity is generated by burning natgas. All of the natgas is imported from neighboring countries.

  With the Northern Hemisphere winter just weeks away, Singapore’s electricity prices are likely to remain elevated as natgas demand continues to strengthen across Europe and the rest of Asia, due in part to La Nina conditions producing unseasonably colder trends.

  There’s word that limited gas supply from Indonesia has already resulted in turbine trips, or emergency shutdown of power generation turbines, at some Singapore power plants. 

  Julius Wiratno, deputy for operations at Indonesia oil and gas regulator SKK Migas, told Bloomberg that gas flows from Indonesia to Singapore are at “minimum demand levels” as supply is limited.

  “Almost all of the independent retailers were forced out of the market, leaving a significant number of consumers previously on fixed price tariffs at the mercy of the spot market,” Whistler said.

  Singapore has resorted to bringing back combined-cycle gas turbine capacity in the event of more turbine trips to mitigate a collapse of its power grid. 

  A spike in power prices might not have a tremendous impact on households, considering a majority of them are under fixed-rate contracts. Still, it could unleash pain for companies that tend to be on variable contracts. 

  Considering Singapore’s power grid is mostly powered by natgas, we suspect this is not the last we’ll hear about soaring power prices as winter fast approaches. We first noted the energy crisis was going globale back in September. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 12/02/2021 – 23:40

• How Migrant Surge At The Border Fuels Massive American OD's From Tiny Grains of This Killer Drug
  How Migrant Surge At The Border Fuels Massive American OD’s From Tiny Grains of This Killer Drug

  By Vince Bielski, published originally in RealClearInvestigations.com

  On a September afternoon, Allyssia Solorio wondered why her energetic young brother hadn’t emerged from his bedroom in their Sacramento, Calif., home. When she opened his door, she saw 23-year-old Mikael leaning back on his bed with his legs dangling over the side. She rushed to her brother and shook him, but to no avail. He was dead. A counterfeit pharmaceutical pill laced with illicit fentanyl had killed him.

  Mikael Tirado was one of an estimated 93,331 overdose fatalities in the United States last year – an all-time high. Nearly five times the murder rate, the deadly overdose toll was primarily caused by fentanyl, a highly lethal synthetic opioid. It’s manufactured mostly by Mexican cartels with ingredients imported from China, and then smuggled over the southwestern U.S. border. Fentanyl has been arriving in larger quantities each year since at least 2016.

  The cartels are taking advantage of law enforcement weaknesses and policy failures to smuggle record amounts of the lethal drug into the United States, according to interviews with half a dozen current and former drug and immigration agents. While a lack of screening technology to find contraband at ports of entry and an inept U.S-Mexico campaign to cripple the cartels are longstanding issues, there’s also a new one: the flood of migrants across the border that the Biden administration has done little to stop.

  Former law enforcement officials say the cartels are orchestrating the surge, overwhelming the capacity of agents to pursue drug smugglers. They can freely enter Texas, New Mexico, Arizona and California carrying fentanyl while agents are diverted to the time-consuming duty of apprehending and processing migrants.

  Frustrated border agents and their union have been calling on Congress to send reinforcements. But help is not on the way. The administration’s upcoming budget request doesn’t include funding for more Customs and Border Protection agents.

  In September, tensions boiled over after President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris lashed out at agents on horseback in response to videos showing them blocking Haitians crossing the border. Harris compared the incident to the mistreatment of slaves, an inflammatory accusation that the union strongly denied, saying no migrants were hit or hurt.

  The administration is pivoting away from law enforcement and embracing a public health approach to the fentanyl crisis. It has proposed spending $11.2 billion – a huge increase over last year – to expand substance abuse prevention, treatment and recovery services. Fewer addicts would mean fewer deaths from fentanyl.

  But curbing opioid addiction is very challenging. The vast majority of substance abusers avoid treatment, according to researchers, and only about one-third of those receiving long-term medical care fully recover. These success stories, however, will be offset if the supply of fentanyl continues to boom and fuel more addiction.

  “Drug treatment is very important, but you can’t treat someone in the morgue who just died from fentanyl poisoning. It’s too late,” says Derek Maltz, the former director of the Drug Enforcement Administration’s special operations division, which primarily targets cartels.

  “We have to vigorously attack the production labs in Mexico and increase border security on our side.”

  Cartels have turned to fentanyl because the super-potent powder is cheap to produce, making it more profitable than heroin, says Eric Triana, an assistant special agent in charge at the DEA division in New York. Two of Mexico’s most powerful crime groups – the Sinaloa and Jalisco New Generation cartels – manufacture the synthetic drug in rustic clandestine labs. In the U.S., the powder is mixed with heroin to stretch supplies.

  To boost sales, cartels have more recently increased production of counterfeit pharmaceuticals. They are made with fentanyl but labeled to look exactly like legitimate medications such as Percocet, Vicodin and Xanax.

  

  The fake pills, which are promoted and sold on social media platforms as real pharmaceuticals, are priced to sell at a discounted rate of about $20 each. They have brought the dangers of fentanyl to mainstream America, with victims belonging to every age, class and racial group. Nationwide, DEA agents seized an unprecedented 9.5 million fake pills — some portion of that total in every U.S. state in the first nine months of 2021, or more than the last two years combined. That prompted the agency to issue a rare public safety alert in September.

  Fentanyl’s potency – at 50 times the strength of heroin – is what makes it so deadly. Two milligrams, which can fit on the tip of a pencil, can kill. But cartels don’t take precautions to make sure the pills aren’t lethal. DEA analysis found that 40% of the seized pills had a potentially deadly dose.

  “I saw the devastation that heroin brought to Baltimore as a young police officer,” Triana says. “But fentanyl is a more potent deadly threat. It’s frightening.”

  Crime groups have gained complete control of the Mexican side of the 1,950-mile border, directing the flow of both migrants and drugs. The Gulf Cartel runs the region around Brownsville, Texas, and moving west to California, the Cartel of the Northeast, Juarez Cartel and the Sinaloa Cartel have staked out turf, says Victor Avila, a former supervisory special agent with Immigration and Customs Enforcement who specialized in human and narcotics trafficking.

  Diversion Game at the Border

  They operate openly as if they were the Mexican military. Jalisco New Generation Cartel, which has recently expanded operations, even slaps a “CJNG” logo in big letters on its military-style trucks and uniforms as part of a show of force.

  

  The surge of migrants that began in 2019 and accelerated after Biden took office has been a boon to these violent enterprises. The migrants are coming from Eastern Europe and Africa as well as Central and South America, lured partly by the administration’s policy that allows unaccompanied children and families to stay in the states while they apply for asylum, according to border agents who have interviewed them. In addition to paying cartels between about $2,000 and $9,000 each to cross, migrants are also used as decoys in drug smuggling operations.

  Equipped with encrypted communications and satellite technologies, crime organizations are precisely orchestrating the timing and location of the border crossings of large migrant groups as part of a diversion tactic, several officers say. Dozens of agents are forced to leave their posts guarding many miles of the border and at checkpoints on roads to assist with apprehensions of the groups.

  The cartels work with spotters in the Halcon network to identify these wide security gaps along the border and send drug smugglers on foot through them undetected.

  A Call for More Agents

  “The illegal alien flows are so big that the Border Patrol has to leave hundreds of miles of border unprotected,” says Avila. “This absolutely means more fentanyl has been entering the country in the last few years.”

  The smugglers make their way across tough terrain to one of hundreds of stash houses located near roads in the border region. The drugs are then placed in cars and driven through often unguarded checkpoints and across the country.

  Rather than pursue these smugglers, many Border Patrol agents are handling the crush of migrants entering the U.S. They apprehended more than 1.7 million this fiscal year, or six times the 2017 number. (That doesn’t include the hundreds of thousands who got away, according to Border Patrol estimates.) Agents deport most of the single adults. But they have to assist in transporting, processing, housing and feeding the unaccompanied children and families who are placed in border patrol facilities for weeks before they are released into the U.S. to pursue asylum claims.

  In the busiest border areas, such as Texas’ Rio Grande Valley and Del Rio, as many as 30% of agents are pulled from the frontlines to deal with the migrant overflow, says Brandon Judd, president of the National Border Patrol Council. Texas is trying to fill the security void by deploying hundreds of state troopers and the National Guard in Operation Lonestar, a $1.8 billion effort. They have seized 127 pounds of fentanyl this year through early September.

  The Trump administration was able to tamp down the number of migrants crossing the border by forcing them to remain in Mexico while they applied for asylum. Biden ended that program, calling it inhumane, and the administration is now fighting a court order to reinstate it.

  Judd says as long as Biden’s asylum policy is in place, the Border Patrol, which has about 14,000 field agents covering both coasts and both land borders, needs thousands more to help secure the Southwest flank. Pleas to congressional leaders for help, made by Judd’s union and former Border Patrol chiefs, have gone unheeded.  

  “If you are not going to change the policy, then give me more manpower to stop the drugs,” Judd says. “But Democrats control Congress, and while some of them are fairly good on border security, it isn’t a priority for a majority of them.”

  So far this year, CBP has redeployed 400 agents from the northern and coastal areas to the southern border – not nearly enough to fill the gaps, Judd says.

  In a statement to RealClearInvestigations, a CBP spokesperson said the agency continues to evaluate the need for more agents and pointed to drug busts as evidence of strong enforcement. Border and customs agents seized 10,000 pounds of fentanyl this fiscal year, according to agency data. That’s five times the catch in 2018. But agents say more seizures actually indicates that more of the deadly drug is entering the country since they have only been capturing an estimated 10% to 15% of the total.

  Most of the fentanyl is pouring over the Southwest border at the U.S. ports of entry, particularly in California, a favorite route for smugglers. The challenge for customs agents at the controlled inspection ports in four states is very different than the cat-and-mouse pursuits of the Border Patrol: How to find illegal contraband in vehicles without slowing trade with Mexico worth hundreds of billions of dollars each year.

  The San Ysidro port in California between San Diego and Tijuana is the busiest land border crossing in the Western Hemisphere. The 70,000 vehicle passengers headed north every day through the port have to wait in long lines of traffic for an hour, on average. Nearby, the thousands of commercial trucks that go through the Otay Mesa port daily have even longer waits.

  

  Customs agents are in a fix. They are under pressure to efficiently clear trucks from Mexico carrying fruits, vegetables, electronics and other goods for entry into the U.S. But that priority to avoid costly commercial delays is in constant conflict with the need to stop and search the vehicles for illicit goods.

  More often than not, smugglers get waved through without a search. “Transnational criminal organizations take advantage of the chaos and clutter at the ports of entry that are dealing with so much legitimate trade and travel,” says Victor Manjarrez, a former Border Patrol supervisor and now a security expert at the University of Texas at El Paso.

  Cartels have the confidence to go big at the border. In August, a Mexican tractor-trailer driver attempted to cross at Otay Mesa with 2.8 tons of methamphetamine and fentanyl hidden among plastic household goods. Agents scanned the cargo using an X-ray-like machine and saw what they described as “anomalies” inside the trailer. Then a canine team sniffed out narcotics worth $13 million. It was the largest ever meth bust along the border.

  Customs agents would arrest more smugglers if they were equipped with basic scanning technology used in the huge Otay Mesa seizure. It helps them quickly make better decisions about which vehicles to inspect manually, a process that can take hours. CBP says it has been deploying more large-scale scanners at ports of entry in the last two years.

  Remarkably, only 15% of trucks were scanned at Southwest ports of entry in 2019, according to a CBP report. And less than half of them received any formal inspection because customs agents have to move too rapidly through the snarl of waiting traffic, says Manjarrez.

  Many of the 328 U.S. ports also need to be expanded and modernized to reduce wait times to allow for more inspections. The Biden administration is asking Congress for $660 million for upgrades, or enough to improve only a handful of the old ports. Otay Mesa’s $144 million expansion plan alone would absorb almost a quarter of this new funding. “It’s really only a down payment for what is needed,” Manjarrez says.

  ‘Hugs, Not Bullets’ in Mexico

  More agents and technology would “absolutely make a bigger dent” in the flow of fentanyl over the border, Manjarrez says, but not stop it. Agents say Mexico also has to begin targeting the hundreds of cartel production labs to further cut the supply.

  “Destroying the labs has to be a top priority because, without them, the cartels can’t continue to kill our kids,” says Maltz, the former DEA organized crime specialist.

  But President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador ended Mexico’s military campaign against cartel leaders two years ago. Soldiers captured and killed many kingpins, but the crackdown also unleashed a reign of violence that Lopez Obrador pledged to blunt.

  The populist president is pushing his “hugs, not bullets” agenda to reduce poverty in the hope that it will eventually curb the appeal of drug smuggling. Meanwhile, the cartels, facing little government resistance, have continued to expand their hold on territory and corrupt lawmakers, according to Vanda Felbab-Brown, a scholar focusing on nonstate armed actors at the Brookings Institution.

  The clout of the cartels was made clear in 2020 when U.S. agents arrested a former Mexican defense secretary for taking bribes to protect the ultraviolent H-2 Cartel. Outraged officials pressured the U.S. to return Salvador Cienfuegos Zepeda to Mexico where prosecutors promptly exonerated him.

  The more lasting damage to drug enforcement came when Mexico passed a law in response to Cienfuegos’ arrest. Maltz says it froze DEA’s operations in Mexico by requiring agents to pass sensitive intelligence through a central foreign affairs office that they believe is corrupt.  

  “The cartels control Mexico. All of it,” says Avila, the former ICE agent who survived gunshot wounds in an ambush with a cartel. “They are running a parallel government.”

  The U.S. Plays Nice

  With the U.S. drug enforcement imperiled, Felbab-Brown has called on the Biden administration to “get tough” with Mexico. In January she urged the administration to use financial support as leverage to compel Mexico to target mid-level cartel operatives and their corrupt government protectors to avoid the bloodshed that comes with taking down bosses.

  But the State Department is taking a conciliatory position, essentially backing Lopez Obrador’s economic development strategy in an agreement between the two countries announced in early October.

  

  At a joint press conference, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the countries had relied too much on security forces to try to weaken the cartels. Over the past decade the U.S. has spent $3 billion to arm and train the Mexican military and police as part of the Merida Initiative. During that time, drug trafficking into the U.S. increased. A new agreement will replace Merida, making job creation in poor communities and drug treatment and prevention top priorities, Blinken said.

  The countries did agree to pursue the cartels, particularly by curtailing the illegal supply of U.S. arms into Mexico and money laundering activities. But the prosecution of cartel members isn’t the priority. Mexico Foreign Secretary Marcelo Ebrard said the success of the agreement won’t be measured by how many drug lords go to jail.  

  The administration’s strategy has plenty of backers in the criminal justice and public health professions. “I’m sympathetic to the argument that Mexico is on the border with the largest consumer of fentanyl and cocaine in the world,” says Bryce Pardo, a drug policy specialist at Rand Corp. “We could do more to reduce our insatiable appetite for drugs.”

  In the meantime, more fentanyl smuggled into the U.S. means more deaths. Triana, the DEA special agent, estimates that the number of overdose fatalities this year will either be on par with or exceed 2020’s.

  Allyssia Solorio, the sister of the Sacramento man who died from fentanyl, has become an activist to raise awareness of the dangers of the illicit drug. The former postal worker says law enforcement must play a larger role.

  “President Biden can do a lot more to shut down the smuggling of fentanyl over the Mexican border,” she says.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 12/02/2021 – 23:20

• New York Crime Figures Return To "The Bad Old Days Of The 1980s"
  New York Crime Figures Return To “The Bad Old Days Of The 1980s”

  A few days ago, we reported that Philadelphia, the City of Brotherly Love, had reported its 500th murder of the year in a case of domestic violence.

  But Philadelphia isn’t the only major American city grappling with a surge in violence. NYC, Philadelphia’s coastal neighbor, has also seen a surge in violent crime in the nearly two years since the start of the pandemic, as we have repeatedly reported.

  Outgoing Mayor Bill de Blasio seems more than happy to let his successor, Mayor-elect Eric Adams, a former police officer and Brooklyn Borough President, deal with the city’s new crime problem. But as overall crime has continued to rise after last year’s surge (while murders have declined only slightly from last year’s extremely elevated rate), a gruesome stabbing in Brooklyn has captured the city’s attention.

  40-year-old Ernest Diaz was found dead late last week outside the lobby of an apartment building on 99th Street in the neighborhood of Bay Ridge. Surveillance footage was enough for police investigating the killing to arrest 56-year-old Vitor Bauza, who was charged Saturday with murder and criminal possession of a weapon.

  Diaz reportedly lived with Bauza, who initially fled the scene, before turning himself in to the police the following day.

  Brooklyn Supreme Court Judge Edgar Walker ordered Bauza to be held without bail until his next court appearance on December 3. Speaking outside of a Brooklyn courthouse on Sunday, Bauza’s lawyer Arthur Aidala confirmed that his client had known Diaz ‘for a very, very long time,’ and called the gruesome murder ‘an aberration’ and ‘so out of character for him.

  CCTV video of the attack was posted online by the Daily Mail:

  Prab Singh, 31, who runs a liquor store nearby, told the New York Daily News that Diaz exited the apartment building naked and covered in blood after being stabbed in the foyer.

  “I looked outside and the guy was just sitting at the front door covered in blood, just red all over,” Singh said. “One of our clients called the police and ran to help him and bring him back inside, but was unsuccessful when she tried to move him.” ‘came out from the apartment building naked.’

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 12/02/2021 – 23:00

• Iran Hails "Fruitful" Vienna Nuclear Talks; Israel Asks Biden To Urgently Suspend Dialogue
  Iran Hails “Fruitful” Vienna Nuclear Talks; Israel Asks Biden To Urgently Suspend Dialogue

  Four days into restarted nuclear deal talks in Vienna, and Iran’s top negotiator, Ali Baqeri-Kani, has issued a rare positive statement Thursday saying that discussions have so far been “fruitful”. Despite complaints alleging that outside entities – Israel in particular – are attempting to “poison” the possibility of reaching a restored Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Baqeri-Kani said the Islamic Republic is determined to see a deal materialize. 

  The top Iranian diplomat said he had “fruitful discussions with Grossi aimed at continuation of technical cooperation between Iran and IAEA” – in reference to the head of the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, Rafael Mariano Grossi. However, he emphasized “now the ball is in the court of the Americans. The Americans must remove the sanctions.”

  

  The Iranian side has still stuck firmly to its up-front demand of immediate US sanctions relief, pointing out that it was the US that unilaterally broke the deal under Trump starting in 2018. Baqeri-Kani was cited in state media and international reports further as confirming “the resolute intention of Iran to actively and positively engage in the talks in Vienna.”

  But Biden administration officials are still expressing deep skepticism, after the recently installed Ebrahim Raisi government was accused of stalling talks which had been off for months since mid-summer, with the charge being it was in order to buy more time to covertly ramp up nuclear development and uranium enrichment.

  Israeli leaders especially have charged Tehran with using the Vienna process as a “cover” to make advances toward nuclear weapons – something which Iran has vehemently rejected. On Thursday Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett told Secretary of State Tony Blinken in a phone call that the Iranian nuclear talks should be immediately halted. 

  While Israel has long been on record as opposing any restored JCPOA deal, this is the first time it’s openly and directly urged the White House to not even enter talks:

  “Iran is engaged in nuclear blackmail as a negotiation tactic — this must lead to an immediate suspension of the talks in Vienna and to harsh retaliation steps by the world powers,” Bennett told Blinken, according to a statement from his office.

  #Israel‘s prime minister told @SecBlinken today, “#Iran is carrying out nuclear blackmail as a negotiating tactic, and this should be answered by the immediate halt to negotiations and the implementation of tough steps by the world powers.”https://t.co/tgDgEJcNlY

  — Jason Brodsky (@JasonMBrodsky) December 2, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Perhaps because of this renewed Israeli pressure, Blinken has been cautious in his assessments: “I have to tell you,” he began from the sidelines of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), “recent moves, recent rhetoric, don’t give us a lot of cause for optimism.”

  He added in the fresh statements: “But even though the hour is getting very late, it is not too late for Iran to reverse course”, referencing that Iran remains in breach of uranium enrichment caps and other steps it took after the US pulled out and ramped up the sanctions pressure.

  “In the very near future, the next day or so, we will be in a position to judge whether Iran actually intends now to engage in good faith,” Blinken added.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 12/02/2021 – 22:40

• Goldman Offering "Burnt Out" Employees New Benefits, Including Sabbatical And Paid Bereavement Leave
  Goldman Offering “Burnt Out” Employees New Benefits, Including Sabbatical And Paid Bereavement Leave

  The latest chapter in the “do anything to make our bankers happy so they don’t quit and/or make another public slide deck” saga comes from the halls of Goldman Sachs.

  The bank is reportedly implementing new worker benefits in order to combat employee burnout, according to a new report from the Wall Street Journal.

  It’s part of a continued push to retain employees at a time when the nation is facing a historic labor shortage and power has shifted to the workers in many industries.

  The investment bank is going to now be offering “paid leave for pregnancy loss” and is “expanding the amount of time employees can take for bereavement leave,” the report says.

  Goldman will also be offering unpaid sabbatical for its long time employees and removing a one year waiting period before matching employee 401(k) contributions.

  Goldman’s head of human resources, Bentley de Beyer, told the WSJ: “We wanted to offer a compelling value proposition to current and prospective employees, and wanted to make sure we’re leading, not just competing.”

  Peter Cappelli, director of the Center for Human Resources at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, commented: “Taking a sabbatical is not the kind of thing that super-engaged executives do.” But, he says, it might help give employees “peace of mind” to have, even if they don’t use it. 

  But while some banks are still coddling their employees, others are starting to pump the brakes. Recall, just days ago we wrote that Morgan Stanley executives were pushing their junior bankers to get back into the office. 

  

  Chris O’Dea, a Morgan Stanley managing director, said on a conference call to employees last week: “If you’re 21 to 35, you are nuts not to be in the office all the time.”

  Executives at the bank are pushing for their younger employees to ditch Zoom in favor of suiting up like the old days and getting into the office, the NY Post reported this week. 

  Gorman said earlier this year he would be “disappointed” if staff wasn’t back at their desks by Labor Day. He also threatened a pay cut for those who didn’t come back to the office.

  This year, we have been writing extensively about the effort Wall Street banks have gone to in order to try and retain talent. Earlier this year, we noted that Evercore was now paying its junior bankers up to $120,000 per year. Second year analysts at Evercore will make $130,000 and third year analysts will make $140,000. 

  Guggenheim has also raised its first year analyst pay to $110,000. First-year analysts across the global corporate and investment banking, markets, and research at Bank of America will now receive $100,000 per year, up from $95,000. Second year analysts will make $105,000 per year and third year analysts will make $110,000. 

  Months ago we also noted that Jefferies announced it was going to be raising pay for its first year analysts in the U.S. to $110,000. The bump in pay is a raise of $25,000 from their previous starting salary of $85,000 per year. Second year analysts will make $125,000, up from $95,000 and third year analysts, called associates, will move up to $150,000 per year from $125,000. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 12/02/2021 – 22:20

• SEC Chair Gensler: Bitcoin Competes With The US Banking System
  SEC Chair Gensler: Bitcoin Competes With The US Banking System

  Authored by ‘NAMCIOS’ via BitcoinMagazine.com,

  • Bitcoin is an “off-the-grid” alternative to the traditional financial system, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler said.

  • Gensler joined former SEC chairman Jay Clayton on Wednesday to talk about Bitcoin, cryptocurrency, and ETFs.

  • Issuers should “come within the investor protection remit” to launch a spot BTC ETF in the U.S., Gensler said.

  

  Bitcoin is a competitor to the U.S. banking system and its worldwide consensus, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler said on Wednesday.

  “We layered over our digital money system about 40 years ago with money laundering and various sanctions and regimes around the globe; we layered that over a digital currency system called our banking system,” Gensler said.

  “In 2008, Satoshi Nakamoto wrote this paper in part as a reaction, an off-the-grid type of approach. It’s not surprising that there’s some competition that you and I don’t support but that’s trying to undermine that worldwide consensus.”

  Gensler’s remarks came during the DACOM Summit 2021, a compliance and market integrity event live-streamed on Wednesday. The SEC chairman joined Jay Clayton, who was in Gensler’s shoes as the commission’s head a few years past, for a conversation around Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, digital assets, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and decentralized finance.

  BITCOIN, THE DOLLAR, AND DIGITAL ASSETS

  Throughout the conversation, the SEC chairman kept drawing a dividing line between Bitcoin and digital assets. While Gensler did not vouch for one or the other, he acknowledged their differences, highlighting the securities-like nature of many projects.

  “These have largely been about raising money for entrepreneurs, and as such, meet the time-tested definition of an investment contract and thus falls under the securities laws,” Gensler said, referring to the many tokens being created and traded worldwide outside of his regulatory scope.

  Gensler has said time and again how he views the cryptocurrency sector as a “Wild West.” He urged the “gatekeepers” of the many cryptocurrency projects in existence to “find a path to register and get within the investor protection remit.” Such projects, “whether it’s a trading platform or token,” he added, are “not going to evolve well outside of the tenets of public policy.”

  When talking about digital assets, Gensler commented how, in his opinion, such developments already exist and don’t demand decentralization to function. The SEC chairman also drew a parallel between the U.S. dollar and the concept of digital currency, downplaying their differences.

  “The U.S. dollar, the euro and the yen, and most of the public companies, are digital,” he asserted.

  “You buy and sell stocks that are digital, you buy and sell treasuries that are digital; there is no physical treasury debt any longer. I tend to call these digital assets.”

  However, Gensler didn’t outright remove the right of other digital assets to exist. Ultimately, he said, investors should decide what’s worthy of investing their money in. Still, he demands clear and straightforward information on each project’s objectives with their offerings.

  “At the core of our bargain in the securities markets is: investors get to decide what risks they want to take. But the people raising the money, the issuers, should share full and fair disclosure,” he said, adding that while the value proposition is “for the market to decide,” it must be “within public policy frameworks.”

  Gensler highlighted the importance of “full and fair disclosure” in the perspective of “investor protection and fraud prevention.” If these digital assets fail to come under the regulatory umbrella of the SEC, he added, there could be financial instabilities in the future.

  “We’re gonna have a ‘spill in Aisle 3’ and…it might be a financial instability event, or come from stablecoins, or by the investing public getting hurt by fraudsters or good-faith actors promoting and raising money,” the commission’s chairman said. “And the investing public didn’t, in hindsight, get enough information.”

  “The innovations around DeFi could be real, but they won’t persist if they stay outside of the public policy frameworks,” he added.

  On stablecoins, Gensler equated them to “poker chips at the casinos,” highlighting how the majority of the movement in that sector has been done inside trading platforms.

  “They were initially brought forward to make the trading platforms more efficient, but it also allowed people around the globe to avert money laundering and tax compliance in jurisdictions,” he said.

  The SEC chairman also shared that his commission is collaborating with sibling agencies such as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in figuring out how different tokens should be treated by U.S. markets and its regulatory body.

  “We’re working together to sort through that,” Gensler said.

  “But right now the public is not protected as it could be and as I believe it ought to be in this space. Technologies don’t long persist outside of public policy norms; people get hurt, trust is diminished. It’s far better to bring it inside the policy frameworks, and that’s what we’re going to try to do at the SEC.”

  WHEN WILL THE SEC APPROVE A SPOT BITCOIN ETF?

  When asked about bitcoin ETFs and the double standards being applied by the SEC to such products, Gensler declined to comment, saying he couldn’t discuss matters the commission is currently evaluating. But he did shed some light on what issuers need to do to have a spot bitcoin ETF approved in the U.S., although he said they already know what the SEC’s demands are.

  “These platforms need to come in, get registered, come within the investor protection remit, ensure for the appropriate anti-manipulation and transparency, and deal with the custody issues,” Gensler said.

  On November 29, asset manager Grayscale Investments sent a letter to the SEC outlining discrepancies in the agency’s rejection of spot ETFs and acceptance of derivatives-based offerings.

  “The Commission has no basis for the position that investing in the derivatives market for an asset is acceptable for investors while investing in the asset itself is not,” the letter said.

  The SEC had denied VanEck’s spot bitcoin ETF proposal earlier that month, and a few more deadlines are coming up on its schedule. The commission has nearly ten filings lined up on its desk, awaiting approval.

  

  Spot bitcoin ETF applications on the SEC’s desk. Source: Arcane Research.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 12/02/2021 – 22:00

• November Payrolls Preview: Strong Enough To Justify The Accelerated Taper?
  November Payrolls Preview: Strong Enough To Justify The Accelerated Taper?

  With Powell’s Fed having telegraphed it will accelerate the taper at this month’s meeting so it can start presumably start hiking as soon as June of 2022, the November payrolls report may be moot although traders will be looking for barbell signs: will it be strong enough to validate an accelerated taper, or could it come so far below expectations that the Fed will be forced to delay its taper-boosting plans.

  Looking at the expectations, Newsquawk reminds us that analysts look for 550k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in November, similar to October’s 531k; the jobless rate is seen falling by one-tenth of a percent to 4.5%. While as noted above the Fed appears almost certain to announce a quickening in the pace of QE tapering, analysts will be carefully watching measures of labor market slack to gauge the progress towards the Fed’s ‘three tests’ for rate hikes: i) Participation was unchanged in October, ii) employment-population ticked up by 0.1ppts, while iii) the U6 measure of underemployment fell 0.2ppts.

  With the inflation tests met, the labor market data will form a key part of the Fed’s arguments for rate hikes, and any significant  improvement in these metrics may see markets further price in tighter rates next year. Meanwhile, labor market gauges have generally been constructive in November: the rate of initial jobless claims going into the November survey period improved relative to the October window; ADP’s gauge of payrolls was in line with expectations, though the pace eased vs October; business surveys saw employment sub-indices improve and are alluding to a very tight labor market, while today’s Challenger job cuts fell to the lowest since 1993.

  Here is a summary of expectations:

  • Nonfarm payrolls are expected to print 550k in November vs 531k in October (private payrolls expected at 530k vs 604k prior,
  • manufacturing payrolls expected at 45k vs prior 60k);
  • the 3-month average nonfarm payrolls trend rate eased to 442k in October (vs 629k in September),
  • the 6-month average rose to 666k (from 622k) and the 12-month average eased to 481k (from 494k).
  • The unemployment rate is seen declining by 0.1ppts in November to 4.5%;
  • Labor market participation was unchanged at 61.6% in October (vs 63.6% in February 2020),
  • U6 underemployment declined by 0.2ppts to 8.3% (vs 7.0% in February 2020), and the employment-population ratio rose 0.1ppts to 58.8% (vs pre-pandemic 61.1%).
  • Average hourly earnings are seen rising 0.4% M/M, with the annual measure expected to rise by 0.1ppts to 4.0% Y/Y,
  • Average workweek hours are likely to be unchanged at 34.7hrs.

  POLICY FOCUS: Fed Chair Powell this week delivered hawkish testimony to lawmakers, where he stated that the economy had continued to strengthen, the labor market had continued to improve, and he sees inflation moving down significantly over the next year. He added that it was appropriate to consider wrapping up the tapering of asset purchases a few months sooner, which participants will discuss at the December FOMC. Powell telegraphing the debate in advance may have taken some of the sting out of incoming economic data — the rationale being that the Fed is set to accelerate the taper barring any significant deterioration in labor market and inflation data before the December 15th confab — but Powell still suggested that there was a three-part test for raising rates (economy at maximum employment, inflation at 2%, inflation on track to moderately exceed 2% for some time);

  Fed officials have attempted to break the link between tapering and eventual rate hikes, but forward-looking markets will be assessing incoming data within the context of the three tests, and will price expectations of the Fed rate hike trajectory accordingly. The inflation test has been met, but Powell said there was still ground to cover to reach maximum employment, though he has previously said that could be achieved by the middle of next year; this week’s labor market data, therefore, remains a key part of the eventual rate hike debate.

  SLACK: Taking an aggregate of the headline since March 2020, there are still some 4.44mln nonfarm payrolls to be recouped to get back to pre-pandemic levels. Goldman Sachs explains that it has been childcare constraints and elevated fiscal transfers which have likely weighed on participation, but these factors should have only a small effect going forward, but it may still take some time for some people to feel comfortable in returning to work, leaving some potential for longer-lasting drags. “We continue to expect that the labor force participation rate will increase in the nearterm, but we have nudged down our participation rate forecast to 1ppt below trend at end-2021 (61.9%) and 0.5ppts below trend at end-2022 (62.1%),” the bank says, “but because jobs are abundant and residual weakness in participation in mid-2022 will likely be due to changes in fiscal policy, wealth, and worker preferences, we expect that the FOMC will judge any participation shortfall that remains at that point to be structural or voluntary and will update their maximum employment goal accordingly.”

  JOBLESS CLAIMS: In the week that traditionally coincides with the BLS survey window for the jobs report, initial jobless claims were little changed at 270k from the prior week’s 269k; but since the October jobs report survey window, claims have eased from 351k. Continuing claims, meanwhile, printed 2.049mln in the survey week, down from 2.11mln in the prior week, and lower than the 2.81mln in the October survey period. Pantheon Macroeconomics said that the trend in initial jobless claims remains firmly downward, but the read may not be clear in the holiday season: “Unfortunately the numbers will be volatile over the holidays, as usual, and the next clean read on the data will be in mid-January,” and by then, “we think claims will be close to the lows seen in the pre-COVID cycle, about 210K.”

  ADP: The ADP’s national employment gauge saw 534k job additions to the US economy in November, more or less in line with the 525k forecast; the prior was revised down trivially by 1k to 570k. ADP’s economists noted that the labor market recovery continued to “power through” its challenges last month. “Job gains have eclipsed 15 million since the recovery began, though 5 million jobs short of pre-pandemic levels,” ADP said, “service providers, which are more vulnerable to the pandemic, have dominated job gains this year.” On the pandemic, ADP’s economists said it was too early to tell if the Omicron variant could potentially slow the jobs recovery in coming months.

  BUSINESS SURVEYS: Within the ISM manufacturing report, the employment index rose by 1.3 points to 53.3, remaining in expansion for a third month, with the report noting some indications that the ability to hire is improving, though this is being partially offset by the challenges of turnover and backfilling. “Survey panellists’ companies are still struggling to meet labour-management plans, but there were modest signs of progress,” ISM said, “an increasing share of comments noted improvements regarding employment,” where “an overwhelming majority of panellists indicate their companies are hiring or attempting to hire.” 51% of those surveyed were expressing difficulties in filling positions, with the situation becoming more acute in the month. Meanwhile, the services ISM is released after this month’s jobs data, but using the IHS Markit flash November PMIs as a proxy, similar themes have been seen. IHS Markit said that pressure on capacity persisted amid labour shortages, with backlogs of work rising at the second-fastest pace on record. “Firms sought to expand their workforce numbers, but employment growth was held back by challenges finding suitablecandidates.”

  JOB CUTS: Challenger’s November report said that announced job cuts had dropped to 14,875 from the 22,822 in October, the lowest monthly total since May 1993. Year-to-date, employers have announced plans to cut 302,918 jobs from their payrolls, the lowest January-November total on record, and vs 2,227,725 vs the same period in 2020. Challenger said that “with the Omicron variant emerging and the unknowns that come with its spread, coupled with the ongoing difficulty hiring and retaining workers, it’s no surprise job cuts are at record lows,” adding that “employers are spread thin, planning best- and worst-case scenarios in terms of COVID, while also contending with staff shortages and high demand.”

  Speaking of Goldman, the bank is more optimistic than consensus and estimates nonfarm payrolls rose 575k in November, above the 531k gain in October and higher than the bank’s initial forecast of +550k (which is in line with consensus). The bank expects no change in government payrolls, and thus private payrolls will also rise +575k in November (vs. consensus +525k).  According to the bank, the summer expiration of federal unemployment insurance benefits in some states boosted job-finding rates there, and the programs expired in the remaining states on September 5th. Over 4.6mn people have dropped off the unemployment benefit rolls since early September, and we assume 300-400k found new jobs during the November payroll month.

  Goldman also believes upward revisions to prior-month nonfarm payrolls are fairly likely in tomorrow’s report. The chart below reveals a trend of increasingly large upward revisions over the course of the year, with prior-month job growth revised up on net in each of the last six reports (including +235k with last month’s release). There are two potential explanations, both of which could potentially lead to upward revisions in tomorrow’s report as well.

  • First, some reopening establishments may respond to the BLS survey with a lag (e.g. 1-2 months after reopening). This would result in positive revisions to the not-seasonally-adjusted data that occurred in May, July, August, and September (dark blue bars below).
  • Second, the seasonal factors may be overfitting to the advance releases, mistakenly attributing some of the strong job creation to an evolution of seasonality (light blue lines below).

  

  ARGUING FOR A STRONGER REPORT:

  • End of federal enhanced unemployment benefits. The expiration of federal benefits in some states boosted job-finding rates over the summer, and all remaining such programs expired on September 5. The 239k pickup in job growth in October relative to September is consistent with a boost from improved labor supply, and with 4.6 mn individuals no longer receiving benefits versus in early September, this tailwind is expected to continue in tomorrow’s report and beyond.
  • Public health. The Delta wave coincided with a late-summer slowdown in job growth, with leisure and hospitality employment growth slowing sharply in September and October (see Exhibit 1). With covid infection rates falling since September, restaurant seatings on OpenTable have rebounded,and economists expect strong gains in leisure and hospitality and in other services.

  

  • Job availability. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between nthe percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hard to get—increased to a record-high of 46.9. JOLTS job openings decreased by 191kin September to 10.4mn but remained significantly higher than the pre-pandemic record.
  • Jobless claims. Initial jobless claims fell during the November payroll month, averaging 257k per week vs. 320k in October. Continuing claims in regular state programs decreased 283k from survey week to survey week.
  • Education seasonality. Education payrolls weighed on the previous two reports, declining 170k cumulatively in September and October (public and private). This reflects some janitors and support staff declining to return for the fall school year. While schools will eventually fill these open positions, the start-of-year catalyst for a large rise in education jobs has passed, and we are assuming only second derivative improvement in tomorrow’s report, such as a flat reading or a modest gain (mom sa).
  • Employer surveys. The employment components of business surveys generally increased in November. Goldman’s services survey employment tracker increased 0.5pt to 55.1 and its manufacturing survey employment tracker increased 0.7pt to 59.6. The Goldman Sachs Analyst Index (GSAI) increased 4.3pt to 77.2 in November, and the employment component rose 1.6pt to a record-high of 75.6.
  • Job cuts. Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray & Christmas declined by 10% month-over-month in November after increasing by 18% in October (SA by GS),and remain near their three-decade low.

  ARGUING FOR A WEAKER REPORT:

  • Supply constraints in retail. Labor supply constraints may have weighed on pre-holiday hiring in the retail industry, for which the BLS seasonal factors anticipate net hiring of around 350k. If so, retail payroll could fall on a seasonally adjusted basis.
  • Vaccine mandates. The vaccine mandates announced by the Biden administration nin September apply to roughly 25mn unvaccinated workers, and may have weighed on November job growth in healthcare and government. While the federal deadline for compliance is generally not until early January and faces an uncertain future in the court system, early adoption in some states may have reduced job growth at the margin in tomorrow’s report.

  NEUTRAL FACTORS

  • Big Data. High-frequency data on the labor market were mixed. Three of the four measures available this month indicate another sizeable gain. However, the Homebase data that directionally flagged the September payroll missindicates an outright decline

  

  • ADP. Private sector employment in the ADP report increased by 534k in November, in line with consensus expectations for a 525k gain and consistent with strong growth in the ADP panel.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 12/02/2021 – 21:40

• Another Shutdown Averted After Senate Passes CR
  Another Shutdown Averted After Senate Passes CR

  Update (2130ET): The Senate on Thursday night passed the Continuing Resolution (CR) passed earlier in the day by the House, thus averting another government shutdown which would have taken effect Friday at midnight.

  The measure passed by a vote of 69-28, ending a brief yet tense period of negotiations until February 18 – at which time lawmakers must either kick the can down the road with yet another CR, or pass a dozen long-stalled appropriations bills to fund the government through September, the end of the 2022 fiscal year.

  🎉 Shutdown officially thwarted 🎉

  Senate passes the CR, 69-28.

  Happy stopgap to all those who celebrate.

  — Caitlin Emma (@caitlinzemma) December 3, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  *  *  *

  House Democrats have reached a spending deal to fund the government through Feb. 18 in yet another can-kick that avoids a shutdown on Friday at midnight.

  

  House Appropriations Committee Chair Rosa DeLaurio (D-CT) announced the deal early Thursday, saying that an agreement had been reached on a continuing resolution (CR) which would maintain funding at the most recent level until a larger bipartisan agreement is eventually reached.

  According to DeLaurio, the legislation “includes virtually no changes to existing funding or policy” – which will instead be included in a spending omnibus in the months ahead, according to The Hill. “However, Democrats prevailed in including $7 billion for Afghanistan evacuees. The end date is February 18. While I wish it were earlier, this agreement allows the appropriations process to move forward toward a final funding agreement which addresses the needs of the American people,” she added.

  Given the Friday night deadline, House Democrats plan to put it to a vote later Thursday, with a Senate vote soon to follow.

  🚨🚨CR DEAL REACHED: feb 18 end date. This is in line what rs have been pushing for. $$ for refugees from Afghanistan., a Dem win.

  Have to imagine a house vote today. pic.twitter.com/t6bFcXfpiJ

  — Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) December 2, 2021

  As Bloomberg notes, the stopgap measure ‘puts agencies on autopilot, freezing in place program funding levels and forbidding new contracts, with few exceptions, one of which being $7 billion in funding to aid Afghan evacuees.’

  Meeting the fast-approaching end-of-week deadline will require cooperation by Senate Republicans, who have the power to drag out the process. 

  One potential impediment is a threat by a group of conservative Republicans to tie up the vote on a temporary government funding measure over their objections to federal Covid-19 vaccine and testing mandates. 

  Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and his Republican counterpart, Mitch McConnell, gave repeated assurances throughout the day Wednesday that negotiations were making progress and a deal was near.

  “I think we’re going to be OK,” McConnell told reporters. -Bloomberg

  Some Republicans, however – including Marjorie Taylor Greene – have called on the GOP to shut down the government in order to prevent the implementation of a federal vaccine requirement. Unfortunately for MTG, she doesn’t have the votes.

  The new stopgap bill is required because Congress was unsuccessful at passing any of the 12 annual appropriations bills required to keep the lights on.

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 12/02/2021 – 21:29

• It's Make-Or-Break Moment For Property Junk Bonds
  It’s Make-Or-Break Moment For Property Junk Bonds

  By Ye Xie, Bloomberg Markets live commentator and analyst

  Thursday’s news of another missed bond payment by a Chinese developer reminded investors of the struggle homebuilders face, even as the worst of the regulatory tightening is behind. Debt issued by property developers, most of them junk-rated, may soon start to diverge — with the strong credits swimming and the weaker ones sinking. In fact, an S&P Global study shows half the B-rated private developers won’t survive a stress test in the worst-case scenario.

  China’s government advisers are proposing a 2022 growth target that’s lower than the 2021 one of “above 6%,” Reuters reported, adding that the new objective could be as low as 5% to 5.5%. While comments from senior leaders call for stabilizing house prices, they fall short of rolling back curbs. All point to a tight lid that will remain on housing markets and any relaxation or easing will be in a gradual, piecemeal manner.

  Moody’s cut China’s property sales forecast on Thursday and reiterated a negative outlook for the nation’s housing sector, blaming “strict regulatory controls” that will “constrain … onshore and offshore funding access” and lead to “defaults, declining sales and rising investor aversion.” Contracted property sales are expected to fall 5%-10% in 2022 versus a prior projection range of flat to a 5% drop.

  

  Against such a policy backdrop, developers’ fortunes could soon start to diverge. Some Chinese developers are seeing the light at the end of the tunnel, rushing to raise funds in the onshore bond market after private-sector homebuilders issued the least amount of yuan notes in five years. Investors including T. Rowe Price Group Inc., Allianz Global Investors and Goldman Sachs Asset Management are starting to tap opportunities selectively.

  Meanwhile, those with poor finances continue to suffer. The latest victim is Shenzhen-based Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd., which has yet to pay interest due Wednesday on a dollar bond, two note holders said. The firm had to make a $17.5m coupon payment on $300m note due 2026, Bloomberg data shows. There’s a 30-day grace period before a default can be declared.

  S&P’s research showed that half of the B-rated developers cannot meet their debt obligation within a year.

  The default rate for Chinese junk bonds is expected to fall from 13.6% this year, but will remain high at 9.7% in 2022 due to property sector troubles, JPMorgan wrote in a client note. JPMorgan favors BB-rated high-yield bonds, betting that the developers will survive and yields in mid-teens are juicy enough. For B-rated notes, the bank sees markets mostly pricing in “selected defaults” and others should eventually recover once the fear subsides.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 12/02/2021 – 21:20

• While Short-Term Rates Flatline, Long-Term Ocean Freight Rates Are Soaring
  While Short-Term Rates Flatline, Long-Term Ocean Freight Rates Are Soaring

  Shippers looking to lock-in long term contracts for ocean freight are in for some serious sticker shock this month, according to shipping data consultancy Xeneta.

  While some adherents to the now discredited “transitory” inflation camp point to the recent flatlining in short-term containership rates – or even decline in the case of core transpacific trades…

  

  … long-term contract rates are still going up. According to Xeneta’s statistics compiled by the Maritime Executive website, global average long-term contracted ocean freight rates went up by 16% in November alone, for a cumulative rise of 121% year-on-year. This follows after a record-setting increase of 28% in July, when all of the major shipping corridors saw significant long-term rate hikes.

  “The continued perfect storm of high demand, maxed-out capacity, port congestion, changing consumer habits, and general supply chain disruption is fueling a rates explosion that, quite frankly, we’ve never seen the like of,” said Patrik Berglund, the CEO of Xeneta. “What’s more, it’s difficult to see a change of course ahead, with the fundamentals stacked very much in favor of the carrier community. In short, they’ve never had it so good, while many shippers, unfortunately, are well and truly on the ropes.”

  The long-term rate hikes are most pronounced for routes to and from the United States. Xeneta calculated the increase for long-term import rates for the U.S. market at 39% for November, up 122 percent year-on-year. U.S. export rates also rose 9% for the month.

  The soaring rates are driving tremendous profitability at the top container lines, many of which have doubled (or even tripled) their revenue year-on-year. Analysts with Blue Alpha Capital estimate that container lines took in a cumulative $48 billion in profit in the third quarter alone, and more than $100 billion over the first nine months of the year. This is more than the combined earnings of the last five years for the entire industry. According to third-ranked carrier CMA CGM, the fourth quarter may be even more profitable, and the first half of 2022 is looking strong as well.

  “2021 will be a year to remember for carriers and one to forget, if that’s possible, for the shipper community,” said Berglund. “What lies ahead is unclear, but we can see there’s action planned to try and ease congestion at major US ports . . . while newbuilds, potential new players and the growing trend of shippers chartering their own vessels might [have an effect].”

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 12/02/2021 – 21:00

• Centers For Medicare And Medicaid Services Suspends Vaccine Mandate Enforcement
  Centers For Medicare And Medicaid Services Suspends Vaccine Mandate Enforcement

  Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

  The federal Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) suspended enforcement of its vaccine mandate for healthcare workers after two court orders earlier this week.

  A memo issued by the agency, posted by Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt on Twitter Thursday, said that CMS “remains confident” it will prevail in court but is “suspending activities related to the implementation and enforcement of this rule pending future development in the litigation.”

  

  “While these preliminary injunctions are in effect,” it continues to say, “CMS surveyors must not survey providers for compliance with the requirements” with the rule.

  The memo is referring to federal government officials conducting checks of whether Medicare- or Medicaid-funded facilities are complying with the Biden administration’s mandate that healthcare staff gets fully vaccinated for COVID-19 by Jan. 4.

  The CMS rule allows for religious and medical exemptions to the vaccine.

  Schmitt, a Republican who is running for Missouri’s U.S. Senate seat, hailed CMS’s memo as a victory in a Twitter post.

  This week, the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Missouri and the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Louisiana issued preliminary injunctions against the CMS vaccine rule, which was unveiled on Nov. 4 alongside federal rules that mandate either testing or vaccines for employers with 100 or more workers.

  “Between the two of them, these injunctions cover all states” as well as Washington, D.C. and U.S. territories, the memo said.

  CMS has appealed the two federal court decisions.

  The rule for private businesses, which is being enforced by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration, was dealt a blow last month when a U.S. Fifth Court of Appeals issued an injunction that blocked its enforcement.

  The same court affirmed its previous decision several days later, which is currently being challenged by the Biden administration.

  On Nov. 29, the Biden administration’s Office of Management and Budget federal told agencies in a memo that they can wait to terminate or suspend their employees who won’t get vaccinated until the holidays are over.

  OMB Deputy Director for Management Jason Miller and Office of Personnel Management Director Kiran Ahuja wrote that “no subsequent enforcement actions, beyond that education and counseling” is mandated for federal workers “who have not yet complied with the vaccination requirement until the new calendar year begins in January.”

  Later, White House Jen Psaki downplayed the memo and said that “nothing has changed” regarding enforcement, claiming it is “inaccurate” to say that the White House has “delayed anything, or changed” enforcement of the rule. In September, Biden announced he would require all federal employees to receive the shot.

  The Epoch Times has contacted CMS for comment.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 12/02/2021 – 20:40

• Russia Deploys Anti-Ship Missiles Near Japan On Disputed Kuril Islands
  Russia Deploys Anti-Ship Missiles Near Japan On Disputed Kuril Islands

  Russia has just seriously escalated the ongoing historic dispute with Japan over the Kuril islands, which Tokyo calls the Northern Territories. The status of ownership of the islands, which Russia de facto currently controls and has small bases on, is still unresolved since the end of WWII as a treaty regarding their status is still being negotiated.

  On Thursday the Russian Defense Ministry announced the military stationed has stationed its Bastion coastal missile defense system on a remote part of the island chain near Japan, identified as the island of Matua. These are considered “shore-based anti-ship missile systems” – seen as also potentially threatening to Japan’s Western allies, given for example US warships have recently traversed nearby waters.

  

  This marks the third Bastian defense system deployed to the islands, amid a major push to beef up Russia’s military infrastructure there.

  The Bastion has a reported range of up to 450 kilometers, and while deemed “defensive” in nature, there’s little doubt Tokyo will take it as an unnecessary and threatening posture regarding the islands’ ownership. 

  Russia has defended the missile deployments so near Japan, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov saying in fresh statements, “Russia is free to place on its territory those objects that it considers (necessary), and in those areas of our country in which it considers appropriate. This is our sovereign right, this is the right of any state, it is unlikely that it can be challenged by anyone.” Peskov added: “And we retain the political will to continue a comprehensive dialogue with our Japanese partners in order to find ways to resolve this fundamental problem.”

  Russia (at that time as the Soviet Union) has exercise de facto control over the Kurils since it seized them in the final days of World War II. The United States recognizes Japan’s sovereignty over the islands, however.

  

   Russia’s near-future plans for continuing to build-up defense on the islands were described in The Moscow Times as follows: 

  The Pacific Fleet has erected a special “autonomous military town” on the uninhabited volcanic island to provide operational maintenance for the Bastion, which has a range of up to 450 kilometers. 

  According to Interfax, the Russian military has previously announced plans to build an airfield for light military transport aircraft and a base point for Russian Navy ships on Matua. 

  Japan’s Foreign Ministry has in the recent past frequently protested Russia’s military build-up just to its north stressing in prior statements: “We are constantly gathering information about the Russian military’s actions in the Northern Territories.” This has served to stall any final negotiated settlement, with no final resolution in sight.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 12/02/2021 – 20:20

• Watch: Joe Rogan Eviscerates Media For Reporting Waukesha Massacre As An "Accident"
  Watch: Joe Rogan Eviscerates Media For Reporting Waukesha Massacre As An “Accident”

  Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

  Joe Rogan once again tore the legacy media apart on his podcast, this time over its coverage of the Waukesha attack after several outlets referred to the murderous rampage as an accident.

  

  “The guy in Wisconsin had tried to run over his f****** girlfriend and he was out on only $1000 bail. He tried to kill someone with his car, he was out on $1000 bail, and then he runs over 50 people in a car,” Rogan explained.

  “Here’s the f***** up part: the way they’re covering that story in the news. It’s not the ‘man who killed those people,’ it was an accident that was caused by an SUV,” Rogan said, referring to NBC, CNN, CBS and others calling the attack a ‘crash’ and an ‘accident’.

  Rogan continued, “A f****** SUV caused an accident? what are you saying? Did the car go haywire? Did the auto-driving feature go nuts? No this evil man with real problems… a psychologically f***** up human being drove into a crowd of strangers.”

  

  Watch:

  The Washington Post reported that the attack was ’caused by a SUV’:

  According to the Washington Post, the Christmas parade attack was actually “caused by a SUV.”https://t.co/VQxIfv1bhw

  — Paul Joseph Watson (@PrisonPlanet) November 25, 2021

  The New York Times reported the “SUV” incident on page 22:

  One wonders if a white supremacist (whether deliberately or not) had ploughed into a BLM parade that the New York Times would put the report on page 22. pic.twitter.com/R9k2Sb3I68

  — Paul Joseph Watson (@PrisonPlanet) November 22, 2021

  The media also lied and suggested that suspect Darrell Brooks was fleeing another crime scene and just happened on the Christmas parade.

  *  *  *

  Brand new merch now available! Get it at https://www.pjwshop.com/

  In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch. We need you to sign up for our free newsletter here. Support our sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown Also, we urgently need your financial support here.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 12/02/2021 – 20:00

• FAA & Army Probe Dangerously Low NFL Game Flyover: "Could've Been A Disaster"
  FAA & Army Probe Dangerously Low NFL Game Flyover: “Could’ve Been A Disaster”

  The US Army has opened a rare investigation of a military flyover of an NFL game. Several helicopters from the 101st Airborne Division’s Combat Aviation Brigade, based at Fort Campbell, Tennessee, conducted what’s being described as a dangerously low flyover of Nashville’s Nissan Stadium on Nov.14 for the Tennessee Titans game that night. Over 69,000 people were in attendance.

  The low pass included a pair of AH-64 Apache helicopters, a UH-60 Blackhawk, and a CH-47F Chinook which were conducting a “Salute to Service” tribute for active duty service members and veterans. While this sort of thing has become routine for NFL games in recent years, it immediately sparked an inquiry from the FAA given the federal agency’s requirement that military flyovers must happen at least 1,000 feet above the highest obstacle.

  Epic flyover at Tennessee Titans game above Nissan Stadium. AH-64 Apache, UH-60 Blackhawk, CH-47F Chinook. 😎 pic.twitter.com/14LNVCNaYG

  — Thenewarea51 (@thenewarea51) November 23, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  In the Nov.14 example the military helicopters seemed literally eye-level with fans in the upper decks. Further, one local CBS affiliate cited a fan to say the aircraft actually “came close to knocking down an American Flag and a camera.”

  Based on the initial FAA probe, the 101st Airborne Division “has directed [a] preliminary inquiry into this event,” according to Army spokesman Lt. Col. Terence Kelley.

  The incident has sparked controversy, with a number of current military pilots coming forward to defend the low-pass of the packed stadium as perfectly safe and nothing to worry about. However one former FAA official slammed the maneuver as irresponsible – which could have led to “disaster”…

  But Larry Williams, a retired aviation safety inspector with the FAA, told NewsChannel 5 that the incident could “have been a disaster.”

  “General reaction, yeah, it was unsafe,” Williams told the news outlet. “It was very dangerous.”

  From inside the @101stAASLTDIV military flyover #SaluteToService 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/aErsRxfR17

  — Tennessee Titans (@Titans) November 16, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  And some fans had also expressed concern, with one posting to social media – and cited in local reports as saying, “Altitude was concerning as I stood and watched from the top row of the stadium. I was above these guys. I had a mini heart attack.”

  Some observers said the helicopters dipped in to the stadium, and not just flew over it…

  A 101st Airborne Division flyover of Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee, last month is being probed by the FAA. But military helicopter drivers have shrugged, saying they train extensively to operate at low altitudes, Task & Purpose reports. https://t.co/hbEEwSzDW5

  — The War Horse (@thewarhorsenews) December 1, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Channel 5 News suggested the choppers may have flown under a hard to spot cable, though this is in dispute.

  When NewsChannel 5 Investigates slowed down the video, the helicopters pass right beneath what appears to be a cable of some sort stretched across the stadium.

  “They went under that cable,” Williams said. “It appeared just a few feet from there. So if they had just gotten off from altitude a few feet, it would have been a disaster.”

  From another angle, the cable is clearly visible.

  But from the cockpit camera, it’s not as easy to see.

  “I wonder whether they saw the cable before they got there,” Williams said.

  NewsChannel 5 Investigates asked, “What is the potential with that cable across the stadium?”

  “Well,” Williams answered, “if you hit the cable, especially with a helicopter, more than likely it would crash.”

  Video from near ground level showing what appears to be the cable in question:

  And more: 

  According to Nashville’s News Channel 5, videos of the event are “raising concerns (that) some…appeared to show the choppers passing just beneath some sort of cable. The Titans said it was actually cables used to hold the field goal nets.”

  However, the Nashville station also says that their own videos show “those cables are connected to the bottom of the top deck, which means the Army helicopters would have flown above them.”

  An update to that report, however, quoted a Titan spokesperson who said the position of the cable in question was an “optical illusion”, and that it represented no danger to the inbound helicopters or people seated below.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 12/02/2021 – 19:40

• Iran Says Israel Is Spreading Lies To "Poison" Nuclear Deal Talks
  Iran Says Israel Is Spreading Lies To “Poison” Nuclear Deal Talks

  Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

  As negotiations to revive the Iran nuclear deal concluded their third day in Vienna, on Wednesday Iran said Israel is stoking tensions and spreading lies to “poison” the talks.

  “Israeli regime whose existence relies on tension is at it again, trumpeting lies to poison Vienna talks,” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh wrote on Twitter. “All parties in the room now face a test of their independence & political will to carry out the job — irrespective of the fake news designed to destroy prospects for success.”

  

  For decades now, Israel has been falsely claiming Iran is developing nuclear weapons, but the warnings never come true. On Monday, when the negotiations first resumed, Israeli media reported that Israel warned the US Iran is preparing to enrich uranium at the 90 percent level needed for weapons-grade, and the reports offered no evidence to back up the claim.

  Since the JCPOA talks have resumed, Israeli officials have made their opposition to the process known and claim Iran is only trying to buy time to make a bomb. On Tuesday, Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid called for more sanctions on Iran and a “credible military threat” to deter Tehran.

  But sanctions from the US and covert attacks from Israel have only led to Iran making the nuclear advancements that Israel is complaining about.

  The JCPOA limits Iran’s uranium enrichment to 3.67 percent and makes its nuclear program subject to the most stringent inspections in the world. If Israel really cared about Iran’s nuclear advancements, it would favor a JCPOA revival instead of doing everything to sabotage the agreement.

  #Iran accused #Israel of “trumpeting lies to poison” the Vienna talks on reviving Tehran’s 2015 nuclear agreement

  “Israeli regime whose existence relies on tension is at it again, trumpeting lies to poison Vienna talks”Iran FM spokesman posted on Twitter https://t.co/EDW86yRbPA

  — Randa HABIB (@RandaHabib) December 1, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Even without the JCPOA, Iran still vows not to develop a nuclear bomb and is a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, which Israel refuses to sign due to its secret nuclear weapons program.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 12/02/2021 – 19:20

• Democrats Blocking Senate Bill That Bans Imports Made With Uyghur Slave Labor
  Democrats Blocking Senate Bill That Bans Imports Made With Uyghur Slave Labor

  GOP China hawks are lashing out at Senate Democrats for their latest “concessions to the Chinese Communist Party” – which also threatens to halt Congressional approval for the $740 billion National Defense Authorization Act.

  Sen. Marco Rubio wants to see a “controversial” amendment added, which his office is saying Dems are blocking based on false pretenses based on procedural issues, that would ban any imports from China that are suspected of being produced with Uyghur slave labor. However supporters say it shouldn’t be a source of controversy at all given several human rights groups support it, and it should be consistent with the Biden administration’s general human rights stance on China. “Today we have American corporations using slaves in China,” Sen. Rubio told Fox News on Thursday, highlighting the fundamental issue.

  

  The Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act targets “Goods manufactured or produced in Xinjiang” which “shall not be entitled to entry into the United States unless Customs and Border Protection (1) determines that the goods were not manufactured by convict labor, forced labor, or indentured labor under penal sanctions; and (2) reports such a determination to Congress and to the public,” according to the bill summary.

  The action springs from widespread reports over the past couple years that the Chinese state has placed some one million ethnic Uyghur Muslims in a network of Communist ‘reeducation’ and forced labor camps. Beijing officials have admitted to the existence of such facilities, but while US leaders have condemned the “slave camps” – China’s government has presented them as merely tantamount to job training and assistance programs, or a halfway house of sorts. 

  According to details of a last minute blockage of the human rights amendment, the Free Beacon writes, “But Democrats excluded the amendment from a vote late Wednesday night, after members of the party privately objected to it, sources told the Free Beacon. Earlier in the evening, Democrats tried to use a procedural mechanism that would have allowed a vote on the act but stripped it from the final appropriations bill, according to a hotline memo from Senate leadership.

  Ironically, the move appears connected to the Biden admin trying to preserve it’s futile “climate agenda”, which in the end will sacrifice the United States’ human rights stance in China: 

  The pushback from Senate Democrats comes amid efforts by senior Biden administration officials to quietly kill the bill over concerns it will hinder the White House’s climate agenda and limit solar panel imports from China. Presidential climate envoy John Kerry, among others, has been lobbying House members against the bill, the Free Beacon reported last month.

  Senator Rubio on @FoxNews: Today we have American corporations using slaves in China pic.twitter.com/ce5L75FdoS

  — Senator Rubio Press (@SenRubioPress) December 2, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  However, each side is now blaming the other amid conflicting accounts of precisely why it’s being blocked, with Democrat leaders downplaying their actions as merely based on technicalities, blaming improper Republican procedural methods and rule-breaking.

  Importantly, as the report underscores of the Uyghur dominant Xinjiang province, “The region is also the world’s largest producer of solar panel components, an industry that human rights groups say is rife with Uyghur slave labor.”

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 12/02/2021 – 19:00

• Futures Slide After Five "Mild" Cases Of Omicron Variant Detected In New York
  Futures Slide After Five “Mild” Cases Of Omicron Variant Detected In New York

  It’s an outcome that could be seen from a mile away – and we made sure everyone following us would see it this morning, when we said to “expect a cluster of NYC cases in the next 24 hours” after it was reported that the 2nd identified US case in Minneapolis had attended the Anime NYC 2021 convention at the Javits Center from Nov. 19-21…

  Expect a cluster of NYC cases in the next 24 hours.

  “The person spoke with MDH case investigators and reported traveling to New York City and attended the Anime NYC 2021 convention at the Javits Center from Nov. 19-21”

  We will know just how benign Omicron is within 72 hours

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 2, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  … but apparently the news that more cases are emerging in NYC has come as a total shock to the algos programmed by 19 year old math PhD’s.

  Moments ago, during a press conference by New York Gov. Kathy Hochul with NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio, the two announced that at least five cases of the COVID-19 omicron variant were reported in New York, just hours after the Minnesota Department of Health (MDH) announced a case in a resident with a recent travel history to New York City.

  #BREAKING: In a joint press conference with @NYCMayor Bill de Blasio, @GovKathyHochul announced that a total of 5 known cases of the #OmicronVarient of the coronavirus have been confirmed in the state of New York. pic.twitter.com/L5gtpFB3nN

  — Moshe Schwartz (@YWNReporter) December 2, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The five confirmed cases in the state of New York include:

  1. 67-year-old woman in Suffolk County – some vaccination history present, unknown how many doses she received
  2. Queens based case – unknown gender – unknown if vaccinated
  3. Queens based case – unknown gender – unknown if vaccinated
  4. Brooklyn based case – unknown gender – unknown if vaccinated
  5. Just received word of a 5th suspected case – no further info

  What is far more important – because by now everyone knows that the omicron variant is highly transmissible – is that all of the cases are said to be “mild” and everyone recovered at home. In other words, while we collect more and more data point, every incremental observation validates the optimistic take that omicron may spread faster but is indeed, as the South African doctor who first identified it, “extremely mild.”

  Gov Hochul confirmed as much, saying that “while [Omicron] may be highly transmissible we want people to know that the early cases that arise are not life threatening, they seem to be minor cases”

  Of course, all the nuances was wasted on the headline scanning algos, and futures which had levitated after the close to trade near session highs in today’s torrid short covering session, dropped on the news, and were down about 15 points…

  

  … or about 3 spoos for every new case. We can’t wait for the algos to learn that there are over 8 million New Yorkers (actually probably less than that now that so many are fleeing de Blasio’ socialist paradise).

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 12/02/2021 – 18:48

• Today's Inflation Trivia: Carbon Offsets
  Today’s Inflation Trivia: Carbon Offsets

  Submitted by Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

  What “commodity” is up 350% since May and up 22% since November 1? The Global Emissions Offset Futures:

  

  So the one inflation literally no one is talking about, is the cost of buying carbon offsets?

  What we need to understand is how many of the offsets are new (someone created an offset) which would be good, or how much is people who already had offsets just selling them?

  Clearly winners and losers in this market, but fascinating.

  This topic came up because I’m told, at least in Europe, despite high gasoline prices, refiners are seeing less profitability, in part, because the rise in carbon offsets has outpaced all else.

  Probably not a bad thing, if it is getting us to the goal of carbon neutral (which somehow I think depends on whether this is new offsets created, or shifting of existing offsets, that previously weren’t monetized), but I suspect it is inflationary, especially since of all the inflation complaints I hear and read about, this one isn’t mentioned.

  Anyways, I found this one really curious and have to admit it had been off my radar screen until recently.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 12/02/2021 – 18:40

Digest powered by RSS Digest