- Macau Gaming Revenue Collapses 87.8% In February
Macau Gaming Revenue Collapses 87.8% In February
Just as we saw happen with auto sales in China, Macau’s gaming revenue collapsed in February as a result of China grinding to a halt while the entire country remains mostly in lockdown as a result of the coronavirus spread.
Macau businesses closed for 15 days to help control the spread of the virus, but it cost them. Gross gaming revenue for February was just 3.1 billion patacas ($386.5 million), a 87.8% fall from 2019. Analysts were predicting the pain ahead of time, estimating for a median of a 90% drop, according to Bloomberg.
Macau, the world’s largest gambling hub, had its government suspend casino operations from February 5th to about February 19th. The epicenter was already dealing with falling revenue numbers from 2019 – and this closure just adds insult to injury. It was the longest closure on record, second only to a 33 hour shutdown that occurred as a result of a typhoon in 2018.
When business resumed around February 20th, foot traffic at casinos was still weak. China continued to halt visas to Macau and transportation remained restricted.
Analysts continue to see the near-term outlook as “murky”. JP Morgan estimates a 24% decrease in gross gaming revenue for the year, based on a 70% drop in March and a 35% decline in the second quarter.
The same analysts said in a March 1 note: “We do not think COVID-19 will curb gamblers’ enthusiasm in a sustainable way, so its impact on the industry’s sustainable earnings power should be limited.”
It continued: “Looking at the glass half-full, we feel it could have been worse given the extensive level of disruption suffered.”
Yeah, good thinking. After all, revenues could have been down 100%.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 03/03/2020 – 01:00 - Why The Coming Economic Collapse Will Not Be Caused By Covid-19
Why The Coming Economic Collapse Will Not Be Caused By Covid-19
Authored by Matthew Ehret via Off-Guardian.org,
With last week’s collapse in the stock market, the internet has been set ablaze with discussion of a new crash looming on the horizon (even with today’s record-breaking point-gain in the Dow). The fact that such a chain reaction collapse was only kept at bay due to massive liquidity injections by the Federal Reserve’s overnight repo loans should not be ignored.
These injections which began in September 2019, have grown to over $100 billion per night… all that to support the largest financial bubble in human history with global derivatives estimated at $1.2 quadrillion (20 times the global GDP!).
Sadly economic illiteracy is so pervasive among today’s modern economists that the real reasons for this crisis have been entirely misdiagnosed with financial experts from CNN, to Forbes blaming the volatility on the spread of the Corona virus!
NOT THE CORONA VIRUS: THE REAL CAUSE OF THE ONCOMING FINANCIAL COLLAPSE.
As refreshing as it is to hear candid criticisms of the system’s failure and even support for the restoration of Glass-Steagall bank separation from presidential candidates like Bernie Sanders, Tulsi Gabbard or even the lame Elisabeth Warren… we find that in each case, those candidates are on record supporting policies cooked up by the very same oligarchs they appear to despise in the form of the Green New Deal.
In spite of what many of its progressive proponents would wish, such a global green reform would not only impose Malthusian depopulation upon nation states globally were it accepted, but would establish a the supranational authority of a technocratic managerial elite as enforcers of a “de-carbonization agenda”.
Due to the rampant lack of comprehension of how this crisis was created such that such idiotic proposals as “green new deals” are now seriously being suggested as remedies to our current ills, a bit of history is in order.
SOME NECESSARY BACKGROUND
“The money changers have fled from their high seats in the temple of our civilization. We may now restore that temple to the ancient truths. The measure of the restoration lies in the extent to which we apply social values more noble than mere monetary profit.”
– Franklin Delano Roosevelt, first Inaugural Address 1933
Knowing that the “money changers” had only been able to create the great bubbles of the 1920s via their access to the deposits of the commercial banks, Franklin Roosevelt made the core of his battle against the abuses of Wall Street centre around a 1933 legislation entitled “Glass-Steagall”, named after the two federally elected officials who led the reform with FDR.
This was a bill which forced the absolute separation of productive from speculative banking, guaranteeing via the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) only those commercial banking assets associated with the productive economy, but forcing any speculative losses arising from investment banking to be suffered by the gambler. The striking success of this law inspired other countries around the world to establish similar bank separation.
Alongside principles of capital budgeting, public credit, parity pricing and a commitment to scientific and technological development, a dynamic had been created that would express the greatest hope for the world, and the greatest fear for the financial empire occupying the City of London and Wall Street.
The death of John F. Kennedy ushered in a new age of pessimism and cultural irrationalism from which our society has never recovered. The destruction of a long term vision as exemplified by the space program, the St. Lawrence Seaway and the New Deal projects had resulted in a tendency within the population to increasingly look upon present pleasures as the only reality, and future goods as the mystical expression of the sum of present pleasures.
In this new philosophical setting, so alien in previous epochs, money was permitted to act as a power unto itself for short term gains instead of serving the investments into the real productive wealth of society. With this new paradigm shift into the “now”, a new economic model was adopted to replace the industrial economic model which had proven itself in the years preceding and following World War II.
The name for this system was “post-industrial monetarism”. This would be a system ushered in by Richard Nixon’s announcement of the destruction of the fixed-exchange rate Bretton Woods system and its replacement by the “floating rate” system of post 1971 fame.
During that same fateful year of 1971, another ominous event took place: the formation of the Rothschild Inter-Alpha Group of banks under the umbrella of the Royal Bank of Scotland, which today controls upwards of 70% of the global financial system.
The stated intention of this Group would be found in the 1983 speech by Lord Jacob Rothschild:
“two broad types of giant institutions, the worldwide financial service company and the international commercial bank with a global trading competence, may converge to form the ultimate, all-powerful, many-headed financial conglomerate.”
This policy demanded the destruction of the sovereign nation-state system and the imposition of a new feudal structure of world governance through the age-old scheme of controlling the money system on the one side, and playing on the vices of credulous fools who, by allowing their nations to be ruled by the belief that hedonistic market forces govern the world, would seal their own children’s doom.
All the while, geopolitical structures foreign to the United States constitutional traditions were imposed by nests of Oxford-trained Rhodes Scholars and Fabians who converted America into a global “dumb giant” enforcing a neo colonial program under a “Anglo-US Special Relationship”. The Dulles brothers, McGeorge Bundy, Kissinger, and Bush all represent names that advanced this British directed plan throughout the 20th century.
LONDON’S ‘BIG BANG’
The great “liberalization” of world commerce began with a series of waves through the 1970s, and moved into high gear with the interest rate hikes of Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker in 1980-82, the effects of which both annihilated much of the small and medium sized entrepreneurs, opened the speculative gates into the “Savings and Loan” debacle and also helped cartelize mineral, food, and financial institutions into ever greater behemoths.
Volcker himself described this process as the “controlled disintegration of the US economy” upon becoming Fed Chairman in 1978. The raising of interest rates to 20-21% not only shut down the life blood of much of the US economic base, but also threw the third world into greater debt slavery, as nations now had to pay usurious interest on US loans.
In 1986, the City of London announced the beginning of a new era of economic irrationalism with Margaret Thatcher’s “Big Bang” deregulation. This wave of liberalization took the world by storm as it swept aside the separation of commercial, deposit and investment banking which had been the post-world war cornerstone in ensuring that the will of private finance would never again hold more sway than the power of sovereign nation-states.
After decades of chipping away at the structure of regulation that FDR’s bold intervention into history had built, the “Big Bang” set a precedent for similar financial de-regulation into the “Universal Banking” model in other parts of the western world.
THE DERIVATIVE TIME BOMB IS SET
In September 1987, the 20-year foray into speculation resulted in a 23% collapse of the Dow Jones on October 19, 1987. Within hours of this crash, international emergency meetings had been convened with former JP Morgan tool Alan Greenspan introducing a “solution” which would have the future echoes of hyperinflation and fascism written all over it.
“Creative financial instruments” was the Orwellian name given to the new financial asset popularized by Greenspan, but otherwise known as “derivatives”.
New supercomputing technologies were increasingly used in this new venture, not as the support for higher nation building practices, and space exploration programs as their NASA origins intended, but would rather become perverted to accommodate the creation of new complex formulas which could associate values to price differentials on securities and insured debts that could then be “hedged” on those very spot and futures markets made possible via the destruction of the Bretton Woods system in 1971.
So while an exponentially self-generating monster was created that could end nowhere but in a meltdown, “market confidence” rallied back in force with the new flux of easy money. The physical potential to sustain human life continued to plummet.
NAFTA, THE EURO AND THE END OF HISTORY
It is no coincidence that within this period, another deadly treaty was passed called the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). With this Agreement made law, protective programs that had kept North American factories in the U.S and Canada were struck down, allowing for the export of the lifeblood of highly skilled industrial workforce to Mexico where skills were low, technologies lower, and salaries lower still.
With a stripping of its productive assets, North America became increasingly reliant on exporting cheap resources and services for its means of existence.
Again, the physically productive powers of society would collapse, yet monetary profits in the ephemeral “now” would skyrocket. This was replicated in Europe with the creation of the Maastricht Treaty in 1992 establishing the Euro by 1994 while the “liberalization” process of Perestroika replicated this agenda in the former Soviet Union. While some personalities gave this agenda the name “End of History” and others “the New World Order”, the effect was the same.
Universal Banking, NAFTA, Euro integration and the creation of the derivative economy in a space of just several years would induce a cartelization of finance through newly legalized mergers and acquisitions at a rate never before seen. The multitude of financial institutions that had existed in the early 1980s were absorbed into each other at great speed through the 1990s in true “survival of the fittest” fashion. No matter what level of regulation were attempted under this new structure, the degree of conflict of interest, and private political power was uncontrollable, as evidenced in the United States, by the shutdown of any attempt by Securities and Exchange Commission head Brooksley Born to fight the derivative cancer at its early stages.
By 1999 a politically castrated Bill Clinton found himself signing into law a treaty authored by then Treasury Secretary Larry Summers known as the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, which would be the final nail in the coffin for the Glass-Steagall separation of commercial and investment banking in the United States.
The new age of unregulated trading and creation of over-the-counter derivatives caused these strange financial instruments to grow from $60 trillion in 2000 to $600 trillion by 2008.
THE 2000-2008 FRENZY
With Glass-Steagall now removed, legitimate capital such as pension funds could be used to start a hedge to end all hedges. Billions were now poured into mortgage-backed securities (MBS), a market which had been artificially plunged to record-breaking interest rate lows of 1-2% for over a year by the US Federal Reserve making borrowing easy, and the returns on the investments into the MBSs obscene.
The obscenity swelled as the values of the houses skyrocketed far beyond the real values to the tune of one hundred thousand dollar homes selling for 5-6 times that price within the span of several years.
As long as no one assumed this growth was ab-normal, and the unpayable nature of the capital underlying the leveraged assets locked up in the now infamous “sub-primes” and other illegitimate debt obligations was ignored, then profits were supposed to just continue infinitely. Anyone who questioned this logic was considered a heretic by the latter-day priesthood.
The stunning “success” of securitizing housing debts immediately induced a wave of sovereign wealth funds to come into prominence applying the same model that had been used in the case of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and collateralized debt obligations (CDO) to the debts of entire nations.
The securitizing of bundled packages of sovereign debts that could then be infinitely leveraged on the de-regulated world markets would no longer be considered an act of national treason, but the key to easy money.
CONCLUSION
This is the system which died in 2008. Contrary to popular belief, nothing was actually resolved. For all the talk of an “FDR revival” under Obama, speculation wasn’t actually regulated under the Dodd-Frank Act or the Volker Rule of 2010. No productive credit was created to grow the real economy under a national mission as was the case in 1933-1938.
Banks were not broken up while derivatives GREW by 40% with the new bubble concentrated in the corporate/household debt sector now collapsing. During this time, nation states continued to be stripped, as austerity was rammed down the throats of nations.
It should be no surprise that in the midst of this despair, a creative alliance was consolidated in defense of the interests of sovereign nation states and humanity at large led by the leadership of Russia and China.
This leadership took the form of the China-led Belt and Road Initiative which has grown to embrace over 130 countries today and looking more and more like an Asian-led version of the New Deal of the 1930s.
Indeed, China’s capacity to unleash long term credit for thousands of international long term infrastructure projects was made possible by the fact that it was the only country on the globe which had not given up the principles of bank separation which were destroyed in every other nation.
Very few western figures stood up to this self-induced destruction over the decades, but one notable exception here worth mentioning is the figure of the late American economist Lyndon LaRouche (1922-2019) who not only resisted this process for over four decades, but fought alongside the Schiller Institute to promote New Silk Road as early as 1996.
With the 2016 Brexit and election of President Trump, a new wave of nationalist spirit has become a fire which the technocrats have lost their capacity to snuff out.
Increasingly, the idea that nation-states have a power over the private banking system has become revived and discussion for reforming the now dead Trans-Atlantic system is increasingly shaped not by the calls for a “New World Order” as Sir Kissinger would have liked, but rather for a New Silk Road and a true New Deal.
The Eurasian nations are already firmly committed to this new system, and if the west is to qualify morally to take part in this new epoch, then the first step will be a return to a Glass-Steagall.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 03/03/2020 – 00:00 - "It's Sad" – First Chinatowns, Now LA's Koreatown, 'Asianphobia' Crashes Food Sales Amid Coronavirus Fears
“It’s Sad” – First Chinatowns, Now LA’s Koreatown, ‘Asianphobia’ Crashes Food Sales Amid Coronavirus Fears
Pandemic fears grip the world as cases and deaths surge ex-China. Last month, we reported that Chinatowns around the globe were struck with a demand shock as consumers ditched Chinese restaurants for fear they could catch Covid-19. Eater LA says Los Angeles’ Koreatown has also seen plunging food sales as ‘Asianphobia’ rises with increasing virus cases in the US.
General Tso’s chicken has left a sour taste among consumers’ mouths as eating habits rapidly shift because of virus fear. From Australia to New York City to Toronto to England to San Francisco, Chinatowns around the world have had their food sales halved in the last month. Some restaurants warned if low traffic continues into the next quarter, their operations would have to be shuttered.
It’s not just Sinophobia that has consumers absolutely terrified that they could contract the virus if they are near a Chinese person, it’s now anyone who looks Asian, otherwise known as ‘Asianphobia.’
Eater LA notes that on Friday a KBS America’s news story on Tuesday detailed how a Korean Airlines flight attendant with symptoms of the virus recently visited LA’s Koreatown turned out to be entirely false. Though, in the wake of the story, food sales of restaurants in the Central LA neighborhood centered near Eighth Street and Irolo Street, west of MacArthur Park, plunged.
LA County Public Health Department stated in a presser on Thursday that no information suggests the flight attendant visited Koreatown.
Food sales at Han Bat Shul Lung Tang were halved last week because of the rumor. Hangari Kalguksu, a popular restaurant offering various noddle dishes, made a statement on Instagram that they hired a professional cleaning company to sanitize the restaurant, dismissing the virus rumor.
A trade group representing LA’s Koreatown restaurants said business conditions deteriorated last week on the rumor, contributed to a 50% decline in food sales.
“In the Korean American community here, it [the rumor] went like wildfire,” Alex Won told AP News on Friday as he chowed down on a bowl of beef brisket soup at Han Bat Shul Lung Tang. “It’s sad.”
Restaurants in LA’s Koreatown Reel Amid Coronavirus Rumor In a Koreatown restaurant known for its beef bone broth soup, the lunchtime crowd Friday was half its normal size. The reason was a virulent rumor about a customer with coronavirus. Han Bat Shul Lung Tang was one of fi… pic.twitter.com/yampUBGFb0
— Punjabi Radio Los Angeles (@lapunjabiradio) February 29, 2020
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
Won said he’s never seen Han Bat Shul Lung Tang “this empty, “adding that “there are always people here.”
AP News notes that their interactions with various shop owners in Koreatown said business died overnight because of the rumor.
“It’s a bad rumor, but people like bad rumors,” said Jay Choi, manager of Hanshin Pocha.
The streets of Koreatown last week and this weekend had people wearing masks, out of fear the virus is stealthily spreading on the West Coast.
State Assemblyman Kansen Chu, D-San Jose, said Chinatowns had taken severe economic losses as a result of Sinophobia. Now it appears, Asianphobia has claimed its next victim: LA’s Koreatown.
If community spreading across the US erupts, could the virus lead a bust of Asian eateries?
Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/02/2020 – 23:40 - The Threat Of Nuclear War Between US & Russia Is Now At Its Greatest Since 1983
The Threat Of Nuclear War Between US & Russia Is Now At Its Greatest Since 1983
Authored by Scott Ritter, op-ed via RT.com,
When the Commander of NATO says he is a fan of flexible first strike at the same time that NATO is flexing its military muscle on Russia’s border, the risk of inadvertent nuclear war is real.
US Air Force Gen. Tod D Wolters told the Senate this week he “is a fan of flexible first strike” regarding NATO’s nuclear weapons, thereby exposing the fatal fallacy of the alliance’s embrace of American nuclear deterrence policy.
It was one of the most remarkable yet underreported exchanges in recent Senate history. Earlier this week, during the testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee of General Tod Wolters, the commander of US European Command and, concurrently, as the Supreme Allied Commander in Europe (SACEUR) also the military head of all NATO armed forces, General Wolters engaged in a short yet informative exchange with Senator Deb Fischer, a Republican from the state of Nebraska.
Following some initial questions and answers focused on the alignment of NATO’s military strategy with the 2018 National Defense Strategy of the US, which codified what Wolters called “the malign influence on behalf of Russia” toward European security, Senator Fischer asked about the growing recognition on the part of NATO of the important role of US nuclear deterrence in keeping the peace.
“We all understand that our deterrent, the TRIAD, is the bedrock of the security of this country,” Fischer noted.
“Can you tell us about what you are hearing…from our NATO partners about this deterrent?”
Wolters responded by linking the deterrence provided to Europe by the US nuclear TRIAD with the peace enjoyed on the European continent over the past seven decades. Fischer asked if the US nuclear umbrella was “vital in the freedom of NATO members”; Wolters agreed.
Remarkably, Wolters linked the role of nuclear deterrence with the NATO missions in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere outside the European continent. NATO’s mission, he said, was to “proliferate deterrence to the max extent practical to achieve greater peace.”
Then came the piece de resistance of the hearing.
“What are your views, Sir,” Senator Fischer asked, “of adopting a so-called no-first-use policy. Do you believe that that would strengthen deterrence?”
General Wolters’ response was straight to the point.
“Senator, I’m a fan of flexible first use policy.”
Under any circumstance, the public embrace of a “flexible first strike” policy regarding nuclear weapons employment by the Supreme Allied Commander in Europe should generate widespread attention. When seen in the context of the recent deployment by the US of a low-yield nuclear warhead on submarine-launched ballistic missiles carried onboard a Trident submarine, however, Wolters’ statement is downright explosive. Add to the mix the fact the US recently carried out a wargame where the US Secretary of Defense practiced the procedures for launching this very same “low yield” weapon against a Russian target during simulated combat between Russia and NATO in Europe, and the reaction should be off the charts. And yet there has been deafening silence from both the European and US press on this topic.
There is, however, one party that paid attention to what General Wolters had to say–Russia. In a statement to the press on February 25–the same date as General Wolters’ testimony, Sergey Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister stated that “We note with concern that Washington’s new doctrinal guidelines considerably lower the threshold of nuclear weapons use.” Lavrov added that this doctrine had to be viewed in the light “of the persistent deployment of US nuclear weapons on the territory of some NATO allies and the continued practice of the so-called joint nuclear missions.”
Rather than embracing a policy of “flexible first strike”, Lavrov suggested that the US work with Russia to re-confirm “the Gorbachev-Reagan formula, which says that there can be no winners in a nuclear war and it should never be unleashed.” This proposal was made 18 months ago, Lavrov noted, and yet the US has failed to respond.
Complicating matters further are the ‘Defender 2020’ NATO military exercises underway in Europe, involving tens of thousands of US troops in one of the largest training operations since the end of the Cold War. The fact that these exercises are taking place at a time when the issue of US nuclear weapons and NATO’s doctrine regarding their employment against Russia is being actively tracked by senior Russian authorities only highlights the danger posed.
On February 6, General Valery Gerasimov, the Russian Chief of Staff, met with General Wolters to discuss ‘Defender 2020’ and concurrent Russian military exercises to be held nearby to deconflict their respective operations and avoid any unforeseen incidents. This meeting, however, was held prior to the reports about a US/NATO nuclear wargame targeting Russian forces going public, and prior to General Wolters’ statement about “flexible first use” of NATO nuclear weapons.
In light of these events, General Gerasimov met with French General Fançois Lecointre, the Chief of the Defense Staff, to express Russia’s concerns over NATO’s military moves near the Russian border, especially the Defender 2020 exercise which was, General Gerasimov noted, “held on the basis of anti-Russian scenarios and envisage training for offensive operations.”
General Gerasimov’s concerns cannot be viewed in isolation, but rather must be considered in the overall historical context of NATO-Russian relations. Back in 1983, the then-Soviet Union was extremely concerned about a series of realistic NATO exercises, known as ‘Able Archer ‘83,’ which in many ways mimicked the modern-day Defender 2020 in both scope and scale. Like Defender 2020, Able Archer ‘83 saw the deployment of tens of thousands of US forces into Europe, where they assumed an offensive posture, before transitioning into a command post exercise involving the employment of NATO nuclear weapons against a Soviet target.
So concerned was Moscow about these exercises, and the possibility that NATO might use them as a cover for an attack against Soviet forces in East Germany, that the Soviet nuclear forces were placed on high alert. Historians have since observed that the threat of nuclear war between the US and the USSR was at that time the highest it had been since the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962.
US and NATO officials would do well to recall the danger to European and world security posed by the “Able Archer ‘83” exercise and the potential for Soviet miscalculations when assessing the concerns expressed by General Gerasimov today. The unprecedented concentration of offensive NATO military power on Russia’s border, coupled with the cavalier public embrace by General Wolters of a “flexible first strike” nuclear posture by NATO, has more than replicated the threat model presented by Able Archer ’83. In this context, it would not be a stretch to conclude that the threat of nuclear war between the US and Russia is the highest it has been since Able Archer ’83.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/02/2020 – 23:20 - Here Are The 5 Richest Men Of The 20th Century
Here Are The 5 Richest Men Of The 20th Century
Nikolai Romanov. Muammar Ghaddafi. John Rockefeller…
What do these three men have in common? As it turns out, they were all three recently included in a list of “Five Richest Men of the 20th Century” following a quick study by LearnBonds.com.
The total list is as follows: 5) Ghaddafi, 4) Mir Osman Ali Khan, 3) Romanov, 2) John D Rockefeller, 1) Andrew Carnegie.
Their aggregate net worth, adjusted for inflation, would amount to $1.62 trillion in 2019 dollars. In 1913, that would have worked out to a fortune of $63 billion – an unimaginable sum at the time. To arrive at these numbers, LearnBonds used the CPI index.
The valuation was arrived at by incorporating the consumer price index change over the years as provided by the Usinflationcalculator.com. To calculate 1913 wealth in US dollars the formula 2020 Price x (1913 CPI / 2020 CPI) was used.
Historical records show that Andrew Carnegie, a Scottish-American industrialist, was the richest man in the world back in 1913. But if his wealth were adjusted into today’s dollars, he would still occupy the top spot with a net worth of $419.8 billion. His vast fortune was credited to his legendary decision to sell Carnegie Steel Company to JP Morgan for $480 million in 1901. From the sale, Carnegie also received $230 million in gold bonds. Carnegie left most of his estate to charity after his death in 1919.
Since wealth inequality is such a big theme in this year’s presidential election (everybody who watched Wednesday’s debate probably remembers the drubbing Bloomberg took just for being a humble self-made billionaire), LearnBonds also thought it would be informative to compare the wealth of America’s ‘Robber Barons’ to their contemporary counterparts – the tech barons who dominate Silicon Valley and the American economy.
Though there’s little doubt that the wealth gap has grown since the financial crisis thanks, in large part, to the Fed’s monetary stimulus which heavily inflated asset prices from their post-crisis lows.
But for everybody who complains about Jeff Bezos, just remember: wealth concentration still hasn’t reached ‘Gilded Age’ levels.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/02/2020 – 23:00 - All Of A Sudden, People All Over America Are Prepping Like Crazy
All Of A Sudden, People All Over America Are Prepping Like Crazy
Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,
I can’t remember a time when we have seen such widespread “panic buying” all over the nation. Today I spoke with someone that just visited the closest Wal-Mart in this area, and I was told that there are empty shelves all over the store. There are very few canned goods left, some of the most essential medications have been cleaned out, and there was nothing left in the long-term storable food section at all.
Of course similar things are being reported at major retail stores all across the United States. All of a sudden, fear of COVID-19 has motivated thousands upon thousands of Americans to start prepping like crazy. But most of the population is still not taking this crisis seriously enough.
As the number of confirmed cases all over the world continues to rise at an exponential rate, what are the stores going to look like when most of the country finally realizes that they should be prepping for an extended pandemic?
Over the past several days, this coronavirus outbreak has escalated significantly.
From Saturday to Sunday, the number of confirmed cases in Italy jumped by 50 percent…
Italy reported a 50% increase in coronavirus cases Sunday, as the US further restricted travel and the famed La Scala opera house closed.
Italy’s Civil Protection Authority reported the country now has 1,694 confirmed coronavirus cases, up from 1,128 confirmed cases on Saturday. Thirty-four people have died.
And in Germany, the number of confirmed cases actually doubled in just 24 hours.
Here in the United States, confirmed cases are now popping up all over the nation, and we are being warned to brace for a “boom” of confirmed cases…
A “boom” of confirmed cases of the coronavirus that has now killed more than 3,000 people around the world — including two in the U.S. — could already be racing across America despite ramped-up efforts to contain the outbreak, experts say.
The spread of the virus by “community transmissions” is an indication that we could indeed be looking at the tip of the iceberg,” Ogbonnaya Omenka, an assistant professor and public health specialist at Butler University’s College of Pharmacy and Health Sciences, told USA TODAY on Sunday.
Overall, the number of confirmed cases outside of China has more than tripled over the past week. If we continue to see that sort of a growth rate, there will be more than a million confirmed cases outside of China just five weeks from now.
I don’t think that it will happen that quickly, and let us pray that we don’t hit that number at all, but right now this outbreak is starting to spiral out of control.
As fear of this virus rises, grocery stores from coast to coast are stocking up on essential supplies in an effort “to prevent shortages”…
Now grocers are working to prevent shortages and preparing for a spike in demand for disinfectants and long-lasting items such as pasta and canned food. Some are ramping up orders from suppliers.
“This is like a natural disaster, but it’s an illness,” said Doug Baker, vice president of industry relations at FMI, a trade group for food retailers.
In the short-term, hopefully things won’t be too bad.
But without a doubt global supply chains are becoming extremely strained due to the widespread shutdowns inside of China, and that has led one analyst to predict “empty shelves in Target and Walmart as early as April”…
“Literally, empty shelves in Target and Walmart as early as April,” predicts David Iwinski, a local China business consultant who once ran a factory in China.
Most retail stores are likely to have shortages because the coronavirus in China is hampering the manufacture of products shipped to America.
If there are things that you need to go buy, you need to do it now, because thousands upon thousands of Americans are already storming the stores.
In Los Angeles, a local Costco was quickly raided of the most essential supplies when the store opened on Saturday morning…
At a Costco Wholesale market in Los Angeles Saturday morning, a swarm of shoppers loaded up carts with essential items to prepare for a possible period of quarantine.
According to the chain, water, paper towels and Clorox disinfecting wipes were the most in-demand products.
And up in northern California, photos of completely empty shelves over the weekend were rapidly shared on social media…
On social media, residents further north shared shocking photos and videos from Costco centers in San Francisco.
Shelves were depleted of tinned food, while some shoppers climbed up onto shelving in order to reach remaining supplies of rice.
Of course the exact same thing is happening in other states as well.
In Washington, one local resident claimed that “thousands of people” have been descending on the local Costco centers…
I live in the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak in Washington State. My advice for those elsewhere – go to Costco now. Thousands of people at local stores yesterday – not where you want to be if there is a virus spreading. Glad I went a week ago.
And one video that has been very widely shared shows hundreds of people lined up at a Costco in Brooklyn before it even opened in the morning.
Up to this point, only six people have died from the virus in the United States.
So what will things look like if thousands of people start dying?
Already, there is a worldwide shortage of protective face masks. In fact, things have gotten so bad that Surgeon General Jerome Adams posted a tweet demanding that people stop buying them…
The surgeon general has a message for people who want to run out and stockpile masks to combat the coronavirus – don’t.
“Seriously people – STOP BUYING MASKS!” Surgeon General Jerome Adams tweeted. “They are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus, but if healthcare providers can’t get them to care for sick patients, it puts them and our communities at risk!”
Personally, I don’t understand his logic. If the masks are not effective, then why do healthcare providers need them?
Yes, the masks have limited effectiveness against a virus that is so easy to catch. But at least they are better than nothing.
The time of “the perfect storm” is here, and this virus has the potential to greatly accelerate our problems.
We still don’t know if this will be the great global pandemic that so many have warned about, but Bill Gates certainly seems to believe that this may be the “once-in-a-century pathogen we’ve been worried about”…
Billionaire and Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates said the coronavirus that has killed at least 2,859 people and infected more than 83,700 globally may be the “once-in-a-century pathogen we’ve been worried about.”
“I hope it’s not that bad, but we should assume it will be until we know otherwise,” Gates wrote in an article published Friday in The New England Journal of Medicine.
Personally, I am still hoping that this outbreak will start to subside once warmer weather arrives.
But so far nothing is slowing this virus down. As I mentioned above, the total number of cases outside of China has more than tripled over the last seven days, and that is a huge red flag.
If you need to get to the store, do it now. Because at the rate that people are raiding the stores, there could soon be shortages of some of the most important supplies.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/02/2020 – 22:40 - Fox News Crushes Prime-Time With Highest Ratings In 24-Year History
Fox News Crushes Prime-Time With Highest Ratings In 24-Year History
Fox News dominated the basic cable news industry in February, according to a new report, which specifies the conservative news network hit the highest ratings in its 24-year history.
A meltdown of leftist cable news networks has allowed Fox News to obtain the highest ratings ever to become the most-watched channel in all of basic cable for the 44th consecutive month, reported Nielsen Media Research.
Fox averaged 3.53 million viewers, followed by MSNBC’s 1.78 million, and CNN’s 1.05 million for the month.
Fox’s prime time hosts, Sean Hannity, Tucker Carlson, and Laura Ingraham, had the top shows in all of cable.
Hannity had the most-watched show, finishing the month with about 4.3 million viewers, while Carlson was second with 4.115 million and Ingraham third with 3.6 million.
Ingraham is the first woman in all of cable news to reach an average viewership of more than 3 million views on any given month.
Coverage of President Trump’s State of the Union address on Feb 4 was impressive for Fox, averaged an audience of more than 11.6 million viewers.
Fox had 13 of the highest-rated shows for the month in all of cable.
Year-over-year trends show Fox’s viewership increased by 35% this month while CNN fell 3%, and MSNBC plunged 9%.
The increase in viewership for Fox suggests more and more people are turning off liberal media and gravitating towards conservative networks.
Fox is dominating all of cable news as its primary left-leaning competitors are imploding.
“CNN is suffering a credibility crisis as viewership is in a mass exodus, fleeing the fake news network to more conservative networks, such as Fox News. There appears to be no plan of action by CNN or liberal media to fix the hemorrhaging of viewership, indicating the trend will persist through 2020,” we noted several months ago.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/02/2020 – 22:20 - This Video Shows How Far Those In Power Will Go To Maintain Control Of A Quarantine
This Video Shows How Far Those In Power Will Go To Maintain Control Of A Quarantine
Authored by J.G.Martinez G. via The Organic Prepper blog,
In our modern world, information is power. We know all that. Whether if some information we find allows us to sleep at night, that´s a different question.
Technology has made readily available information we never thought could be possible. This has allowed the shaping of our society in ways we never imagined.
Under severe circumstances, those in control will take extreme measures to keep it. This is, has been, and very likely will continue being a norm. Losing control is the worst nightmare for politicians. They know, that once public law enforcement organizations have been overrun, they will be targeted. Should they have their conscience clean, that wouldn´t happen. But in every society of the world, with the extremely few exceptions, the norm seems to be these politicians don´t have it so clean. Therefore, they will do whatever they have to do, to avoid losing their grip.
How is China maintaining control?
Now let´s analyze Chinese idiosyncrasy. Their culture has been going on for thousands of years. They are right to be proud. Whether that strange and modern concept of “human rights” was respected, it´s not part of the equation. Poor people had “human” rights thousands of years ago? I am not by any means an expert in history; but I would say, most of the actual “empires” are on a basis of total lack of respect for individual rights.
How is it possible that 1.5 billion people are kept under control so they don´t take over the status quo? It´s a mystery for me. But the future is unpredictable and can be really surprising. Things can change. The only constant is change.
We never can underestimate how far the system can go, just to avoid that huge beast called “the masses” getting out of control. This being said, I am going to describe what is in the videos of the link I submit here. This is my personal opinion, strictly. I´m totally responsible.
Warning: The video has some strong violent scenes including female mistreating.
Expect violent measures
Never been in the military, but I know most of the uniformed forces all over the world some kind of protocol to counterattack every possible contingency. That is something great. Law-abiding citizens will applaud this. Including me of course. But things are different when the contingency is becoming increasingly…threatening.
And this is exactly what seems to be happening. The reactions are extremely violent. The actions are extreme, and it´s hard to understand, if everything is under control, then why this footage is online? Despite all the censorship? These are the dystopian methods used by a desperate government.
Remember, the doctor who first alerted about this outbreak was thrown in a corner to die. It was a plain death sentence. I don´t know in China, but in Venezuela, the time and effort needed to provide someone with the means to be a real, prepared and competent doctor in medicine (not like those posers in Cuba who just want to get off the island to ask for asylum and going to work in someone´s restaurant) is huge: 7 years, and 10 years with an specialty. This shameless contempt for human life, once the owner of such life decides to make a move against whatever affects the interests of the totalitarian regime in charge, is a trait that sooner or later will be the nemesis of such soulless machinery of propaganda, built to feed decadent bureaucrats. Those who have seen how creepy the uniformity of certain “party leadership” is, will understand perfectly what I intend to say.
Maybe some of those watching this video could understand the methodology.
I don´t, and please don´t ask me to do so. They act so violently, for being authorities, that one could think they seem to be on the verge of collective hysteria.
The video shows, in the first 20 seconds officers with masks dragging people out and immobilizing people on the floor. People are chased on the streets, by officers with sticks. Carried on hanging from legs and arms, by personnel with full-body hazmat suits.
An “officer” hits with both fists several times to a woman. Obviously he loses it after the woman reacts badly to his requests, and he starts throwing fists like a little girl. Shame on him.
Incredibly, a building gets its steel gates welded, shutting it closed for good. Officers in white hazmat suits barricade (on the outside!) a building gate. A pile of dirt and debris is found burying another gate. All of these buildings were suspicious of being infected with the disease.
Officers are seen fighting over people on the floor. They even kick the faces of some citizens. I know people can be annoying, but these officers don´t act like they´re controlling a disease: they look like thugs mobbing someone. I mean, how much time a trained officer lasts getting someone handcuffed? Dragging people on the streets is their idea of “crisis management”?
Another outrageous image is several people handcuffed, but chained by the waist to each other, just like circus monkeys. Jeez, I don´t even like monkeys being chained like that.
Desperate authorities are dangerous
Just to be clear, this is NOT a political article, God forbid it. This is a small exhibition of how the desperation of authorities can lead to very dangerous situations for us citizens. No matter where you are. Or even who you are.
Just imagine why I´m so concerned. I´m a foreigner in this country. The only person I care about, and the reason I am here, is a kid. I don´t have a fridge. I have to eat outside, or open a can otherwise.
Just think someday an outbreak makes its way here, and some sort of quarantine is enforced. What the heck am I going to do? Of course, I have some cans and water stored. A small couple of flashlights, and some other stuff. But I won´t be able to make it more than a week, and that is with luck.
What would happen if I have to defy the quarantine, get out the 7 blocks to the next supermarket, to buy some food (if there even is food left)…and a bunch of police throws me in a patrol car with other (possibly infected) guys?
If I never was exposed or contaminated, now I´m done. My only way to escape would be, to fight back (and with the risk they take my papers off me) and run. No one is going to get to look for me in any hospital or some other place. I would be on my own. (This book is an excellent guide to being prepared for quarantines so you can stay out of harm’s way.)
This is starting to be a situation that has been slowly occupying spaces in my mind. After all, 5 years ago I was sitting in my living room, enjoying a cold beer while playing videogames with my kiddo and torturing my annoying neighbors with the full power of my home theater.
5 months from here, God knows what will happen.
Do you see why I´m so concerned about this stuff? It´s amazing this has not made viral yet. The rest of the world (especially some countries in Latin America) seems not to give a f*** about the virus.
My brother-in-law is a really, really nice guy. I appreciate him a lot. I´m almost 20 years his senior but I see him as my (another) younger brother, indeed. He´s a simple man, a country boy now living in a huge city. Sent him the video and he said, immediately “Jose, this is serious. We will have to look for a place without so many people around! Your cottage would be the ideal place!! If you have some plan let me know.”
Thanks for your reading, and I look forward to your comments.
Be safe.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/02/2020 – 22:00 - China Warns Of Looming "Locust Invasion" As Coronavirus Outbreak Fades
China Warns Of Looming “Locust Invasion” As Coronavirus Outbreak Fades
Is the world’s largest constitutionally atheist state facing a revival of the 10 biblical plagues of Egypt? It’s starting to look that way.
Just days after Beijing promised to send a a 1,000-duck “army” to Pakistan to help farmers fend off one of the largest locust swarms in decades, senior government officials warned that China could soon face an “invasion” of desert locusts and urged local authorities to prepare for battle, even as the country struggles to get back on its feet after being shut down for so long.
The locusts are reportedly approaching China via Pakistan and India. Swarms could enter Tibet from Pakistan and India, or the southwestern province of Yunnan through Myanmar, depending on climate conditions, the notice said. Swarms could also fly across Kazakhstan and into China’s Xinjiang region, according to Reuters.
To be sure, the National Forestry and Grassland Administrations said on its website that the risk of the swarm entering China and attacking farms is “low”. But if the swarms do arrive, Beijing will be limited by a paucity of knowledge about the locusts’ migratory patterns and techniques to fight them (aside from the ducks, apparently).
Swarms could also attack the southwestern province of Yunnan via Myanmar. It all depends on climate conditions. Swarms could also fly across Kazakhstan and into China’s Xinjiang region.
Chinese customs officials at Khunjerab, a crossing between China and Pakistan in southwestern Xinjiang, have started monitoring the surrounding 2 km for locusts. They inspect vehicles crossing the border and, if they find locusts or locust eggs hidden, they destroy them.
The desert locusts have already ravaged crops and pastures in several countries in Africa, as well as India and Pakistan.
Thankfully, as we mentioned above, Beijing has a secret weapon:
Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/02/2020 – 21:40 - Google's Creepy Line Exposed
Google’s Creepy Line Exposed
Authored by M G via The Burning Platform blog,
The Creepy Line is a particularly sinister term used in an unguarded remark by former Google CEO Eric Schmidt in 2010. In hindsight, what is most disturbing about the comment is how casually he explained Google’s policy regarding invading the privacy of its customers and clients.
“Google policy on a lot of these things,” Schmidt says about 45 seconds into the introduction, “is to get right up to the creepy line and not cross it.” Time pointer needed.
The Creepy Line is an 80-minute documentary available through several options available here.
For now, it is available for free at Amazon Prime, but I’m not sure how long it will be offered there considering many current concerns regarding censorship of anti-establishment themes on various social media platforms.
This film offers a very frank look at the number one source of news in our country: Facebook and Google.
Early in the film, you will discover how Google acquired an enormous and permanent cache of data about users. Initially, the data was used to refine search algorithms used to help index the websites and information uploaded to the world wide web. Now, however, it is used to fine-tune ads and content that most suits your interests, storing the information to better provide content suggestions for you. But, this film will give you a really disquieting idea (at least it should) about what else they may be doing with that data.
Initially, Google was simply the most popular Search engine, basically the largest available “indexing” algorithm on the net. Then, Google came up with Google Chrome, a browser, to track and log not only what you look for but also where you go and every keystroke you make while there. In fact, Google realized they could serve you best if they know what you are doing even when offline, which is why the the Android system can track you everywhere you take your phone. With all the free apps available and used globally, Google has a very accurate picture of what everyone’s daily life looks like anywhere in the world.
At intervals during the presentation, Professor Jordan Peterson offers insight from his own experience with social media and agenda setting. For those unfamiliar with Peterson, he was propelled into fame when he very publicly refused to use the new gender pronouns approved by Canada’s Political Correct Policy. Peterson’s outspoken refusal to yield to the thought police led to him being interviewed as being a spokesman for the Millennial Mindset, especially their willingness to accept new technology without questioning it.
“These are all free services but obviously they’re not,” notes Peterson, during his commentary, as he discusses the impact upon his life his sudden notoriety and the negative publicity Google and You Tube caused for him. He discusses his own battle with depression as well as insights into his daughter’s experiences with social media, which gives him special psychiatric insight into teenage (millennial) angst, perhaps. Some may find his frank openness about the issues off-putting, but he comes across to me as a man who has walked through hell and doesn’t want to talk about it, but has decided he will do so, if you are interested. I find Peterson’s point of view extremely relevant, especially in light of the the news regarding Peak Prosperity’s de-platforming today and the implications for our own sources of information going forward.
He is not the main speaker during the film, but Peterson does an excellent job explaining how the surveillance business model works. This leads to a discussion of how Google Maps, Google Docs, and the use of Gmail (even drafts of emails you don’t send!) combine together to form and shape your thoughts and behavior, similar to a bunch of people in a control room with dials which monitor and control your every interaction with the world. (15:28)
Less than ten minutes into the movie, you might have already decided to turn to non-Google search engines, but there is no hope of your retrieving any information they already have on you. It belongs to them, a legal point discussed several times during the presentation.
We already know Facebook censors conservative views and downplays trending stories favorable to conservatives, and the movie assures us Google and You Tube work on similar algorithms. Algorithmic choices must be based on something, but to remain supposedly objective, nothing should be completely filtered out, only put into some sort of rational order. Rational could be chronological, or most viewed, or relevant, for instance, but for that rational variable in the algorithm, something will come first.
As long as nothing is excluded, albeit, as long as you can find them on the list somewhere, there is at least a rational reason for their placement and the semblance of objectivity is retained. Whether you agree with the rationality is not relevant at this point. Except, that we know filters are restricting information for very irrational reasons.
In the discussion, we discover Facebook Social Engineers insert stories into news feeds which they want people to see. This means not only is Facebook a gatekeeper for your news, they are also propaganda pushers. The concerns that Facebook could easily influence elections by sending messages to certain types of individuals most likely to be influenced deserves at least some discussion by some governmental agency, doesn’t it?
Well? the discussion with Zuckerberg during the film shows his disregard for users’ privacy concerns. That CYA attitude is obvious throughout when we are reminded of all the “terms of use” we have agreed to over the years.
Facebook and these other internet entities claiming company rights without accountability are communities without voting citizens. Since the majority of voters claim to get their news from Facebook or Google associated sources, this is an issue people should realize really will impact our ability to use social media for reliable news. We have no access to details concerning how decisions are made regarding censorship on any of these platforms. We have every reason to believe they are not necessarily rational or definitely are not ethical. While Facebook seemed at one time to be a wonderful way to connect humanity across the world, it brought with that connection an overabundance of unintended consequences which may introduce a new Dark Age.
Google and Facebook are a kind of corporate partnership which has unprecedented power and influence over public opinion. Psychologist and Google critic Robert Epstein (a large contributor to the documentary) found that, by sheer coincidence, the day after he wrote an article called “Could Google Tilt a Close Election?” he couldn’t access the Internet through any browser. If you are time-constrained and hope for the meat of the matter, around the 34-minute point, Peterson discusses his reaction to Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt’s comment about getting close to the creepy line but not crossing it. He suggests cultures once taught children to stay away from the creepy line, but that somehow, digital capability has altered the understanding of what the creepy line represents.
The movie discusses the concepts behind Search Engine Manipulation Effect (SEME) which has powerful implications since 90% of searchers select the first on the list. At 38:30 a good introduction to the impact of Negativity Bias helps explain the ability to suppress ideas deemed “negative” in public opinion.
“If they have this kind of power then democracy is an illusion,” says Roger Epstein.
“There have to be in place numerous safeguards to make sure not only that they don’t exercise these powers but that they can’t exercise these powers.”
At 44:28, you will discover that the Federal Government runs on Google and when you learn how much of our nations classified data is trusted to Google, it should make most of us even more aware of our lapses in internet discernment in days gone by.
I believe, it is vital to note the film was made by the makers of “Clinton Cash.”
And Google executive Eric Schmidt, infamous for his “creepy line” comment, became part of the Clinton campaign in 2016 but by then, we’d all come to realize there was something a little creepy about Google, anyway, hadn’t we? While the video does provide a lot of anecdotal evidence with some scientific (social statistics) analysis to support the idea that internet gatekeepers introduce liberal bias, the evidence is sketchy about how internet platforms are monetized and what we might do to resist the influence these tech giants possess in our government institutions.
This is a discussion we should force our federal servants to have because those agencies have become part of the hiring grounds for big tech companies. They simply hire influence. It is a discussion we do need to have as we face the direction technology is pushing us toward: Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Artificially Intelligent Decisions.
Instead of War Games’ discovery there is no way to win, AI may decide nobody really has a need to know who won. Google got caught before favoring its own commercial services by antitrust regulators, which is discussed in the movie. Assuming those who control Google might very well show favor in politics is a valid worry when considering the ability of many of their hired “monitors” to delete or insert content based on their own bias at will. (The video discusses several known instances of this happening.)
Unfortunately, there is not an obvious solution, but one suggestion is that Google, Facebook, YouTube, et al be legally defined as media companies and be subject to the same legal burdens which apply to mainstream media corporations. In other words, the suggestion is that they be held accountable for their actions. These enormous companies have created algorithms that in turn have created sorting systems that attempt to direct and control (quite successfully) every aspect of our lives, without our even being fully aware of their impact on our decisions.
It is time we educate ourselves before we become “re-educated.”
Overall, I think The Creepy Line is a good way to begin a much needed public debate, but it is at least a way to get yourself educated a bit about why you should send a donation to The Burning Platform today and thank Jim Quinn for continuing to host a wide variety of contributors here at this page while he can.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/02/2020 – 21:20 - Boeing Bets Big On Max Production Restart By Mid-Year With New Hires
Boeing Bets Big On Max Production Restart By Mid-Year With New Hires
Boeing is making a massive bet with the hiring of new mechanics for its shuttered 737 Max production line that a restart could begin imminently, reported Bloomberg.
Max production lines were suspended last month as there was no clear pathway for the planes to return to the skies via the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).
Boeing started hiring hundreds of new employees late last year with the expectation production would resume by mid-2020. In early December, Boeing hired 115 new mechanics to its Pacific Northwest manufacturing hub. Another 122 were brought on in early January and another 143 by mid-month. IAM District 751, Boeing’s largest labor union, said the plane manufacturer had hired 730 new workers, a figure that is entirely net increases, despite 31 mechanics leaving.
Boeing’s labor and supply chain management expenses related to the Max have been soaring since the planes were grounded about a year ago, and the company incurred even higher costs associated with production shutdowns last month. About 3,000 employees remain on payroll to avoid a fracturing of its supply chain.
Boeing’s timetable for a mid-year production restart could be a little too optimistic with planes grounded. The FAA has provided limited details on when the aircraft will return to the skies.
There are some signs that Boeing’s restart could be nearing, or maybe it’s just more gambling by its suppliers: Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc., Boeing’s top supplier with 3,200 employees, said it would resume Max fuselage production at the end of March.
Ken Herbert, an analyst with Canaccord Genuity, said 200 of the recent Boeing hiring’s had been mechanics for the Max production line. Herbert said other workers had been shifted to other product lines but would be diverted back to Max production when restart occurs.
Doug Alder, a Boeing spokesman, told Bloomberg that “we’ve maintained our staffing levels on the 737 program to focus on factory initiatives, while temporarily assigning some employees.”
Getting Max production off the ground by mid-year could be a difficult task for Boeing, and the number of resources it’s allocating into its supply chain for immediate restart could prove disastrous if delays continue.
Hints of new delays are coming from Southwest and United Airlines, who have extended Max cancelations until late August to the early September timeframe.
And more issues are developing, with about half of undelivered Max planes have foreign-object debris (FOD) in their fuel tanks.
Boeing’s big bet on mid-year production restart could prove disastrous if more delays are seen.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/02/2020 – 21:00 - Is China's Economy Finally Starting To Recover? Here Is What The Real Data Shows
Is China’s Economy Finally Starting To Recover? Here Is What The Real Data Shows
Over the weekend, China-watchers – or at least the ones who don’t really watch China all that closely and instead rely on others’ “hot takes” – were shocked to learn that in February both the Chinese manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs had crashed far below consensus expectations, tumbling to record low levels, surpassing even the economic contraction observed at the peak of the global financial crisis.
Meanwhile, anyone who was following out periodic updates of China’s “alternative”, high-frequency indicators demonstrating the real state of the economy was hardly surprised, because as we showed over the past few weeks, after China’s catastrophic post-Lunar New Year collapse the economy has yet to stage a material rebound as profiled previously:
- China Has Ground To A Halt: “On The Ground” Indicators Confirm Worst-Case Scenario
- China Is Disintegrating: Steel Demand, Property Sales, Traffic All Approaching Zero
- Terrifying Charts Show China’s Economy Remains Completely Paralyzed
And yet, judging by the market’s torrid surge on Monday, it appears that – as so often happens – traders took China’s latest numbers in stride, and specifically as an indication of Beijing “kitchen sinking” the collapse in February, with a V-shaped recovery sure to follow.
Or maybe not, because while not only has China’s economy not picked up even modestly, but it is only a matter of time before Beijing, which has forced people to go to work against their will, succumbs to a second wave of coronavirus infections, one which will result in an even worse economic slump than the current one, which incidentally has yet to show any actual recovery!
So what do the latest high-frequency economic indicators show? It may come as a surprise to some that not only has China’s economy barely posted any improvement since our last update on this topic a week ago, but it has in fact lost ground in some metrics. Courtesy of Goldman, here is the latest “alternative” data:
First, daily coal consumption has barely rebounded from the recent lows, and is in fact where it was when the Lunar Near Year started, and tracking almost 30% Y/Y:
In line with the reduced daily coal consumption, railway-loaded coal volumes are also tracking substantially below the average level of the past three years, and what’s worse, the 2020 series appears to have slowed down in recent days.
An even more ominous indicator is China’s traffic congection index – a proxy of overall trade and commerce – which has barely budged since its new year lows and remains far below the same period in previous years.
With commerce frozen and amid fears that the government is lying about the true extent of the coronavirus spread, it will hardly come as a surprise that passenger traffic has failed to stage even a modest rebound from its new year lows, and is about a quarter of where it was one year.
One of Wall Street’s favorite real-time indicators, traffic congestion in major Chinese cities, has seen a modest rebound in recent days, however even it remains just barely above its level at the start of the lunar new year, and is below half where it has been in recent years.
It’s not just passenger traffic that is moribund: the load factor on domestic flights remains a fraction of where it has been in recent years.
Even the one area where there was been a modest rebound in recent days, daily property sale, remains in dire territory, or about 68% down compare to last year.
Looking at end markets for commodities used in construction, the operating rate of rebar slumped further on both weak demand and high inventories. Likewise, the operating rate of HRC and galvanized steel, mainly used in the manufacturing sector, is now at just 50% of capacity and shows no signs of recovery.
And, as Goldman points out, while the bank has found increased orders from cable and wires fabricators while, operating rate of copper rod producers remained as low as 50% for big companies and 30% for medium-sized producers. What’s more, some small producers have not restarted yet at all, according to a Goldman survey with onshore contacts.
There is a silver lining to China’s ongoing economic paralysis: anyone who ventures into one of the country’s thousands of cinemas will have the building all to themselves.
The failure of China’s economy to reboot comes even as authorities have ordered owners of closed factories – whose employees are scared to return to work – to boost electricity usage to pretend that the economy is back to normal, and to fool those people who look at the charts above, into getting the impression that China’s economy is humming again. We described this bizarre example of central planning on Saturday, and here is Rabobank’s Michael Every commenting on this very phenomenon on Monday morning:
Saturday’s China PMI data were frankly shocking. Manufacturing was at 35.7 and services at 28.9: these are not recessionary levels, but outright depressionary. The private Caixin PMI was also awful at 40.3, again saying a deep downturn is biting. Of course, the real issue is if we get a V-shaped recovery in output – or in virus infections. Optimists, and Chinese stocks this morning, are cheering the former – and Chinese stocks are always freely traded and never, ever manipulated by the authorities, as well all know. Realists, and NASA satellite imagery of no pollution over China, lean towards the latter: as does one anecdotal, unsubstantiated report trending over the weekend that China has been ordering factories to leave the lights on to make them look busier from space and to boost electricity output in case pesky foreigners start trying to use that as a GDP proxy.
Finally, for all those expecting that Beijing will unleash another massive stimulus to kick-start the economy which remains paralyzed at a time when most analysts said activity would be back to normal by the first week of March, we give the last word to Nomura’s China economist Ting Lu, who not only correctly predicted the plunge in PMIs, but also said that “the likelihood of another round of massive stimulus appears low as policy space remains limited.””
“We believe markets might underestimate the scale of the current growth slump. Due to a slower-than-expected rate of business resumption, we have cut our year-on-year Q1 real GDP growth forecast to 3.0% and expect Beijing to ramp up policy easing measures in coming months. That said, the likelihood of another round of massive stimulus appears low as policy space remains limited.”
In short, for China – which was the world’s growth dynamo during the global financial crisis and helped the world rebound from the 2009 global depression while raking up tens of trillions in debt – the end of the economic road may finally be here.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/02/2020 – 20:40 - Forced Labor? – China Pushes 1000s Of Uyghur Muslims To Work In Factories
Forced Labor? – China Pushes 1000s Of Uyghur Muslims To Work In Factories
The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) published a new report that says at least 27 factories in nine Chinese provinces are using forced labor of at least 80,000 Muslim Uyghur minority from the western Xinjiang autonomous region.
“Under conditions that strongly suggest forced labour, Uyghurs are working in factories that are in the supply chains of at least 83 well-known global brands in the technology, clothing and automotive sectors, including Apple, BMW, Gap, Huawei, Nike, Samsung, Sony, and Volkswagen,” ASPI’s report said.
After several years of intense international criticism of China’s Uyghur re-education camps of more than one million people, many of these folks have graduated and been funneled into government-directed factories around the country.
The report said, “It is extremely difficult for Uyghurs to refuse or escape these work assignments, which are enmeshed with the apparatus of detention and political indoctrination both inside and outside of Xinjiang. In addition to constant surveillance, the threat of arbitrary detention hangs over minority citizens who refuse their government-sponsored work assignments.”
It added that “local governments and private brokers are paid a price per head” by the Xinjiang provincial government to “organise the labour assignments,” which ASPI says a new phase of government “repression” of Uyghurs is underway in forced labor factories making products for Western consumers.
The Shandong-based Taekwang factory is one of many factories Uyghurs have been forced into labor. Taekwang is owned by South Korean chemical and textile conglomerate (chaebol), is one of the largest manufacturers of shoes for Nike, turning out upwards of eight million pairs per year.
ASPI said hundreds of Uyghurs workers did not choose to work at the factory; they were assigned by the government.
“The Chinese government is now exporting the punitive culture and ethos of Xinjiang’s ‘re-education camps’ to factories across China,” said Vicky Xiuzhong Xu, the report’s lead author.
It was seen in some cases that Uyghurs were transferred from re-education camps directly to factories.
“For the Chinese state, the goal is to ‘sinicise’ the Uyghurs; for local governments, private brokers and factories, they get a sum of money per head in these labour transfers,” Xu added.
And while the appeal of cheap slave labor is enticing for Western companies, the Chinese government promotes Uyghurs integration in factories as their strong efforts at ‘multicultralism’…
“By ‘encouraging’ ethnic minorities in Xinjiang to ‘interact and develop themselves,'” Wang Yang, an official in charge of Xinjiang labor policies, recently said. “China has immensely promoted interaction and integration among different ethnicities.”
As China attempts to restart its manufacturing base, specifically in the Hubei region, where shortages of workers remain because of the virus outbreak, it’s only a matter of time before the government sends in Uyghurs to pick up the broken pieces.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/02/2020 – 20:20 - Did CDC Stop Disclosing How Many Americans Are Being Tested For Covid-19? – Live Updates
Did CDC Stop Disclosing How Many Americans Are Being Tested For Covid-19? – Live Updates
Summary:
- US death toll climbs to 6; all in WA, which has 18 cases
- 2 new cases confirmed in Tampa Bay
- 1st case reported in New Hampshire
- Hubei reports 114 new cases, 31 new deaths
- South Korea case total hits 4,812 as nearly 500 new cases reported; death toll hits 34
- Santa Clara County confirms 2 more cases, bringing county total to 9
- Gottlieb warns US cases likely in ‘low thousands’
- Illinois announces 4th case
- Boris Johnson: “A very significant expansion” of the virus is “clearly in the cards”
- Italian death toll climbs 18 to 52 while total cases surpasses 2,000
- BMW tells 150 to quarantine after Munich employee infected
- Algeria total hits 5
- Senegal becomes 2nd sub-Saharan country to confirm virus
- WHO’s Tedros: Virus is “common enemy” of humanity so don’t focus on blame
- Jordan reports first two cases
- French death toll revised to 3, total cases climb to 191
- Tunisia reports first case
- UK total climbs to 40
- OECD warns global growth could fall by half
- Indonesia reports first cases
- “Progress is being made” toward a vaccine
- Cuomo says NY expects more cases
- India confirms 2 more cases
- ‘Official’ Iran death toll hits 66
- EU confirms 38 deaths across 18 members
- First cases confirmed in Fla.
- 2 Amazon employees test positive in Milan
- Virus now in 8 US states: Washington, California, Illinois, Rhode Island, New York, Florida, Oregon and New Hampshire
- San Antonio virus patient re-hospitalized after testing positive
- China warns it could face ‘locust invasion’
* * *
Update (2015ET): Health officials in South Korea have reported the first batch of numbers for Tuesday: 477 new cases, bringing the total to 4,812.
Three more deaths in South Korea, bringing death total to 34 in South Korea, still behind Italy’s 52.
* * *
Update (1920ET): Hubei has reported 114 newly confirmed cases of the virus, along with 31 new deaths, the Global Times reports. That’s the lowest daily case total since Jan. 21, as Beijing tries to convince its citizens now that they’ve returned to work that everything is all right and there’s no need to fear the virus anymore.
#Hubei reports 114 new confirmed cases of #coronavirus infections on Mar 2, with 31 new deaths. The total number of infections in the province climbed to 67,217, with 2,834 deaths. pic.twitter.com/8617nYz3nZ
— Global Times (@globaltimesnews) March 3, 2020
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Outside of Hubei, officials reported just 11 additional cases, and no deaths.
Glancing through the Global Times twitter feed is an always-rewarding activity, and on Monday evening, we noticed this gem: the GT reports that South Korea is struggling to contain the outbreak because of “high levels of religious fanaticism” in the country.
In S.Korea, a country with high religious fanaticism, virus prevention is a challenge as it is not easy for believers to follow and listen to the scientific advice and instructions, so China should also be careful to prevent virus re-import from SK: expert https://t.co/fybeDGDOyA pic.twitter.com/ZYCHcVoFeA
— Global Times (@globaltimesnews) March 2, 2020
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* * *
Update (1850ET): Washington Governor and former Democratic presidential candidate Jay Inslee said Monday that Washingtonians shouldn’t be surprised when authorities start cancelling “big public events” – though he assured the public that he wasn’t requesting a mass cancellation right now(despite the fact that 6 people are dead in his state).
Gov @JayInslee, in an update on the coronavirus, says people should be ready if authorities move to cancel big public events in Washington:
“We are not making a request formally right now…But people should be prepared for that possibility and need to be thinking about it.”— Matt Day (@mattmday) March 2, 2020
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* * *
Update (1845ET): UK PM Boris Johnson is reportedly planning to unveil a “plan” to help combat the outbreak in Britain as the total number of cases nears 30, amid signs of ‘community transmission’ inside its borders.
* * *
Update (1805ET): During VP Pence’s virus press conference, FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn confirmed that the US will be able to perform around 1 million tests by the end of the week. What this means is simple – more tests, more positives. And we wonder – absent G& actual action, not just talk – if this will take the shine back off stocks.
However, there is one more concerning thing as US authorities appear to take a page out of communist China’s authoritarian playbook. As Jedd Kegum noted on Twitter, the CDC has stopped disclosing the number of Americans tested for coronavirus.
On the left is how the website looked last night. On the right is what it looks like now, with the testing info removed.
Coming right as CDC says it will be massively expanding testing, Legum warns: “The lack of testing is a scandal…This is the coverup.”
* * *
Update (1550ET): State officials announced the first case of coronavirus in New Hampshire Monday, according to a local TV station.
Dr. Benjamin Chan, a New Hampshire state epidemiologist, said during a press conference that one of four people reently tested for coronavirus came back positive. The individual had recently traveled to Italy.
The individual is an adult from Grafton County in the northwestern part of the state. They are not sick enough to be hospitalized, but have been asked to self-quarantine at home. The person is reportedly an employee of Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center. The hospital has reportedly set up an incident command center.
“We will be working very closely with healthcare providers in the community and the hospital system involved in order to investigate this case of COVID-19 and try and prevent further transmission in our community,” Chan said.
Health officials in the state said they have no reason to suspect a community outbreak since the history of transmission is clear.
“We will be working tirelessly to investigate this most recent identification and to identify any potential susceptible contacts who may need themselves to be placed under self quarantine,” Chan said.
In an interview that will air tonight, Dr. Anthony Fauci of the CDC said the outbreak in the US has “reached outbreak proportions and likely pandemic proportions.
Dr. Fauci to @RichardEngel: Coronavirus has “reached outbreak proportions and likely pandemic proportions” — tonight on @NBCNightlyNews
(via @NBCNewsPR) #covid19 pic.twitter.com/m1PqioLdqZ
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) March 2, 2020
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Eight US states have no confirmed cases of the coronavirus: Washington, California, Illinois, Rhode Island, New York, Florida, Oregon and New Hampshire
During a short, impromptu briefing with reporters after his meeting with drug company CEOs at the White House on Wednesday, Trump hinted at tightening travel restrictions, something critics have been demanding.
In other news, critics slammed VP Mike Pence after the CDC abruptly delayed a Monday briefing.
“A White House spokesperson later said the CDC would participate in an afternoon briefing today on the coronavirus response with Vice President Mike Pence.”
The stock market and Trump’s political fortunes matter more than making timely information public. https://t.co/IZySY7gEdN
— subscribe to my newsletter (@brianbeutler) March 2, 2020
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* * *
Update (1540ET): Now that France’s confirmed cases have more than doubled over the past two days, French drug giant Sanofi said it is producing an experimental lot of the vaccine. We assume the experimental doses will be distributed to the most in-need patients.
* * *
Update (1455ET): In his latest comment of the day, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said “we are ready for potential economic downsides from coronavirus”.
Most of Google’s 8,000 employees and contractors in Ireland have been told to work from home tomorrow after a member of staff reported flu-like symptoms.
* * *
Update (1440ET): The US death toll is now changing by the minute.
Washington State authorities are now saying six patients have died from the virus (presumably all of them were elderly or sick, as the first patients who died were), and the total number of patients in the state has climbed to 18, with all of the new cases of “unknown origin” as experts warn there could be hundreds, possibly thousands, of infections in the state.
And US stocks are moving further off their highs as yet another intraday rally fizzles.
Over in Australia, which confirmed its first case of community transmission on Monday, organizers said the Formula One season-opening Australian Grand Prix will be held as scheduled on March 15, despite the looming virus threat. The number of cases in Qatar, meanwhile, has climbed to 7.
* * *
Update (1420ET): Washington State health officials announced Monday that three more coronavirus patients in King County have died, bringing the US death toll to 5. The new cases announced brings the total cases in the county to 14.
Jeffrey Duchin, a health officer for Seattle and King County, said during a press conference that the county had confirmed 4 new cases on Monday, bringing its total to 14. Of these 4 new cases, two had died, while 1 previously reported patient had also passed away.
There are the newly confirmed patients who passed away:
- A male in his 50s, hospitalized at Highline Hospital. No known exposures.
- A male in his 70s, a resident of LifeCare, hospitalized at EvergreenHealth in Kirkland. The man had underlying health conditions, and died 3/1/20.
And the previously confirmed who have died:
- A female in her 70s, a resident of LifeCare, hospitalized at EvergreenHealth in Kirkland. The woman had underlying health conditions, and died 3/1/20.
- A female in her 80s, a resident of LifeCare, was hospitalized at EvergreenHealth.
- In addition, a woman in her 80s, who was already reported as in critical condition at Evergreen, has died. She died on 3/1/20
The Seattle Times reported that the F5 Office Tower in downtown Seattle had closed for cleaning after an employee had contact with a coronavirus patient.
Circling back to the press conference, officials promised to do everything they could for our health workers. They added that the people of Washington State can help by “saving masks” for medical workers and people who really need them, which is a surprising thing to say considering the outbreak is obviously accelerating.
Masks are not recommended for healthy people to prevent infection, but they are so important for our health care workers to have.
King County Chief Executive Dow Constantine confirmed during an 11 am (local time) press conference that his county is in final negotiations to buy a motel and convert it quickly into modular housing.
That presser is ongoing for whoever wants to watch:
Live now: https://t.co/yLzA6GH8td
— King County Council (@KCCouncil) March 2, 2020
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In other recent news, Oman has become the latest Middle Eastern state to ban travelers from coronavirus-impacted countries, joining Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Senegal has become the second country in sub-Saharan Africa to confirm a coronavirus case, joining a growing list of countries and cities that have reported their first cases on Monday. In Northern Africa, Algeria reported two new cases, bringing its total to 5.
* * *
Update (1400ET): French officials just confirmed their country’s 191st case as of Monday, with confirmations doubling in two days. They also reported that earlier figures were incorrect, and that France’s death toll had been reduced to 3, down from 4. The most recent death was an 89-year-old woman who was confirmed post-mortem.
In other news, the UAE is evacuating its citizens in Iran as the coronavirus spreads.
The CDC just announced that it has confirmed Florida’s first two coronavirus cases confirmed late Sunday night.
One Washington County is also reportedly devising a plan to buy a motel to start housing coronavirus patients.
* * *
Update (1345ET): Public health officials in Santa Clara County have confirmed two new cases of COVID-19 on Monday.
This brings the total number of cases in the county to 9. The state added that the increase in cases is “not unexpected.”
Read the full media statement below:
- Media Statement: County of Santa Clara Public Health Department Reports Two New Cases of COVID-19
- The County of Santa Clara Public Health Department confirms two new cases of COVID-19 in Santa Clara County. This brings the total number of cases to nine.
- The eighth case is an adult male household contact of a confirmed case in another county. He is under home isolation.
- The ninth case is an adult male household contact of a previously confirmed case in Santa Clara County. He is also under home isolation.
- Due to medical privacy requirements and to protect their identity, further information about these cases will not be released.
- An increase in cases is not unexpected. The Public Health Department will continue to identify anyone who has come into contact with these cases. The department will also be conducting community surveillance to determine the extent of possible disease spread in our community.
- Individuals and organizations need to take action to help slow down the spread of the disease. For individuals, the recommendations are simple, but very important:
- Keep your hands clean by washing them frequently, especially after you touch common surfaces, such as doorknobs, elevator buttons, handrails, light switches, countertops, and tables. It is one of the most important steps you can take to avoid getting sick and spreading germs to others. Always cover your cough and stay home when you are sick.
- Stay away from people who are sick, and stay home if you are sick.
- Work on not touching your face because one way viruses spread is when you touch your own mouth, nose or eyes. If you do need to touch your own mouth, nose or eyes, wash your hands before you do so.
- Start thinking about family preparedness, how to take care of sick family members while not getting infected. Think about a room to isolate a sick person.
- There are practical measures that can help limit spread by reducing exposure in community settings:
- Schools: should plan for absenteeism and explore options for learning at home and enhance cleaning of surfaces.
- Businesses: whenever possible, can replace in-person meetings with video or telephone conferences and increase teleworking options, as well as modify absenteeism policies and enhance cleaning of surfaces.
Shortly after, Fox News reported that officials in Tampa Bay confirmed two more cases, marking the 3rd and 4th cases in the state of Florida.
Of course, thanks to Florida’s reputation as a haven for retirees, a reputation that’s bolstered by the fact that Florida has the largest population of senior citizens in the US, the state is particularly vulnerable, as many members of vulnerable communities also live in close proximity to one another.
* * *
Update (1305ET): Boris Johnson said Monday that “a very significant expansion” of the virus is “clearly in the cards.”
* * *
Update (1300ET): Public health officials in Illinois have announced another “presumptive positive” case of coronavirus. Like the prior cases, Illinois case No. 4 is also in Cook County.
.@IDPH and @CookCoHealth report 4th coronavirus case in Illinois. Woman in her 70s who is the spouse of the third case pic.twitter.com/mssAgf8dHG
— Ben Orner (@Ben_Orner) March 2, 2020
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The total number of coronavirus cases confirmed in Italy has climbed to more than 2,000 on Sunday, according to a statement from Italian public health officials. The country’s death toll climbed by 18 to 52.
The march of first-cases continues, with Saudi Arabia becoming the latest to announce its first case on Monday.
In Washington, 34 firefighters and police are being quarantined after visiting the nursing home in Kirkland where two cases were confirmed over the weekend.
* * *
Update (1130ET): Toward the end of the Q&A with reporters following Monday’s press briefing, Dr. Tedros told a reporter that humanity now has a “common enemy” and should focus on fighting it instead of apportioning blame. The WHO Director-General made the remark in response to a question about the culpability of certain governments for the global spread of the coronavirus.
The outbreak only kills roughly 2% of those it infects, Dr. Tedros said. Because of this, he said, Dr. Tedros believes that “the stigma to be honest is more dangerous than the virus itself,” he said. “Let’s really underline that. The stigma is the most dangerous enemy, for me it’s more than the virus itself.”
Translation: The WHO is prioritizing defending Beijing’s actions – i.e. ‘battling racism’ – over its responsibility to combat the virus.
“Concerns and worries are understandable. It’s fine to be concerned and worried, but let’s calm down and do the right thing,” he added later before ending the briefing.
- WHO’S TEDROS SAYS HUMANITY NOW HAS A COMMON ENEMY
- WHO’S TEDROS SAYS STIGMA IS MORE DANGEROUS THAN VIRUS ITSELF
Dr. Tedros then launched into a defense of the WHO’s decision to delay the decision to declare the virus a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC), before pointing out the fact that in 55 countries have confirmed less than 100 cases.
“Even if it’s more, it can be contained.”
So, Dr. Tedros started the press conference explaining why it’s not appropriate to describe the outbreak as a pandemic, before declaring it a “common enemy” of the human race.
We seem to have lost the thread.
* * *
Update (1100ET): The WHO’s daily presser is still ongoing. Meanwhile, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said Monday after two people were diagnosed with the virus that 23 Floridians have now been tested, and 184 are under monitoring by publi health officials.
California has warned about how the virus could impact its finances.
* * *
Update (10:55ET): Mary Lou McDonald, the leader of Ireland’s Sinn Fein, has revealed that her children attend the Dublin school that has been temporarily shuttered after a student who recently returned from Italy was diagnosed with the virus, according to the Guardian.
The roughly 400 students and staff at the school have been advised to ‘stay home’ and ‘restrict their movements’.
* * *
Update (1045ET): WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said Monday that he wouldn’t call the outbreak a pandemic until “evidence warrants” – adding that right now, 90% of cases are in China (even as the virus as been confirmed in nearly 70 countries).
- WHO’S TEDROS SAYS WILL CALL IT A PANDEMIC IF EVIDENCE WARRANTS
- WHO’S RYAN SAYS STILL HOPEFUL CONTAINMENT IS RIGHT STRATEGY
- TRUMP SAYS HE ASKED TO ACCELERATE WORK ON VIRUS VACCINES
- WHO’S TEDROS STILL URGES CONTAINMENT FOR KOREA, CHINA, ITALY
- CHINA HAS SENT TECHNICAL TEAM TO AID RESPONSE IN IRAN
In other news, Qatar’s public health officials have announced 4 new cases of the virus.
* * *
Update (1030ET): Tunisia has reported its first case of coronavirus, joining a growing list of major cities and countries that have reported their first cases of the virus on Monday, drawing even more scrutiny to the WHO and its unwillingness to call the outbreak a ‘pandemic’.
Meanwhile, the WHO will hold its daily press breifing at 10:30 am ET.
Watch live below:
* * *
Update (0900ET): Here’s a funny headline about the G7 emergency coronavirus meeting.
- FRANCE’S FINANCE MIN. LE MAIRE: G7 CORONAVIRUS MEETING IS TO BE HELD BY TELEPHONE TO LIMIT TRAVEL.
The ECB, meanwhile, called off a joint event with the European Commission that was supposed to happen on Tuesday because several participants cancelled because of the outbreak.
In the UK, the total number of cases has climbed to 40.
In other news: As fear spreads in Washington State, six schools and one university have closed Monday for a ‘deep clean’.
* * *
Update (0845ET): Echoing the news out of San Antonio, Rajasthan Health Minister Raghu Sharma warned Monday morning in the US that one of India’s first cases was a passenger who landed in Jaipur from Italy on Feb 29. He was admitted to the isolation ward at a hospital after he showed symptoms of COVID-19 in the screening and at first he tested negative, and he was sent home.
However, a later confirmatory test later showed he was positive.
It just underlines the notion that the most dangerous thing about the novel coronavirus is it’s ability to remain undetected for lengths of time.
* * *
Update (0820ET): The French death toll doubled Monday morning when health officials reported 2 new deaths, bringing the total to four.
* * *
Update (0800ET): Former FDA Director Scott Gottlieb, who has been far more vocal than the current FDA director thanks to his regular appearances on CNBC and other cable news channels, warned during an interview on CNBC Monday morning that the public shouldn’t trust the administration’s rhetoric.
The fact is, things are far from ‘okay’, Gottlieb said. Now that the government is expanding testing, the US case count will ‘grow rapidly’. The public should start stocking up on supplies and preparing for widespread disruptions. Gottlieb warned that the number of cases in the US has probably already reached the ‘low thousands’. Hundreds could be confirmed by the end of the week.
Scott Gottlieb
As the GT pointed out earlier, the CDC is telling Americans that wearing facemasks in public right now isn’t necessary. We suspect Gottlieb would beg to differ.
Meanwhile, Jordan has reported its first 2 cases as the coronavirus outbreak in the Middle East spreads.
BMW has reportedly told 150 R&D employees to quarantine at home for two weeks ater coming into contact with an employee in Munich contracted the virus. The Munich case was sent home to self-quarantine. Large companies that have now confirmed employees have been infected include Amazon, Nike, Google and BMW.
Before we go, we’d just like to point out: In the past 24 hours, Moscow, New Delhi, NYC, Berlin, Rome and Brussels have all confirmed their first cases, as have Indonesia, Portugal and now Jordan on Monday morning.
And yet…
And the World Health Organization still won’t call this a pandemic. https://t.co/y4Y3cbAw30
— Ben Hunt (@EpsilonTheory) March 2, 2020
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Earlier, European Commission President Von der Leyen followed the OECD’s breakthrough warning by saying the risk in the EU had risen from “moderate” to “high.”
* * *
Update (0730ET): As we reported last night, a group of drug company CEOs are on their way to meet with President Trump at the White House.”Progress is being made” toward a vaccine, Trump said.
I am meeting with the major pharmaceutical companies today at the White House about progress on a vaccine and cure. Progress being made!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 2, 2020
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Meanwhile, NY Governor and Trump nemesis Andrew Cuomo told CNN Monday that he expects more cases to be confirmed in New York. NYC’s first patient is a woman in her late 30s who contracted the virus while traveling abroad in Iran.
Amazingly, despite all of Cuomo’s boasts about his state’s state of the art labs and medical resources, the woman is apparently “isolated in her home.”
* * *
Update (0715ET): A Reuters headline from late Sunday just caught our eye, and we felt obligated to share: China’s State Forestry and Grasslands Administration has warned that the world’s second-largest economy could face a devastating “Locust Invasion”.
- CHINA FACES RISK OF LOCUST INVASION – FORESTRY AND GRASSLAND ADMINISTRATION
Last month, we reported that China was deploying an “army of ducks” to help Pakistan fight an invasion of locusts, a plague that is also hurting farmers across Africa.
Looks like Beijing is going to need its ducks back.
The Global Times, meanwhile, is now mocking the CDC for refusing to recommend that Americans should wear facemasks.
Suggesting people not wear face mask is seriously misleading. All of the Chinese experts have advised people to wear face mask when in contact with others during time of epidemic and consider it one of the most effective measures. Please heed suggestion of Chinese experts. pic.twitter.com/xUxq11m7Bg
— Hu Xijin 胡锡进 (@HuXijin_GT) March 2, 2020
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* * *
Update (0640ET): Japan reports 15 new coronavirus cases, Reuters reports, bringing the country total to 271, excluding the 705 from the Diamond Princess.
* * *
Update (0615ET): Stella Kyriakides, the European Commissioner for Health and Food Safety, confirmed on Monday that the EU Has 2,100 confirmed cases and 38 confirmed deaths across 18 member states. The bloc has also raised its risk alert level from “moderate” to “high”.
Yet all the borders remain open…
Shortly after South Korea reported 599 new cases of coronavirus raising its total to 4,335 and death toll to 22, South Korea’s transport ministry said flights from South Korea to the US would begin screening all passengers with mandatory temperature checks – techniques that have already been shown to be not entirely effective.
Trump has seemed hesitant to slap South Korea and Italy with the same travel restrictions he used on China. If he cares about being reelected, he might want to reconsider.
China reported 202 additional coronavirus cases and 42 additional deaths last night, as we reported. This morning in the US, Chinese Premier Li said the coronavirus outbreak was at a crucial stage and that positive trends outside Hubei mean strict control measures must be maintained.
* * *
Update (0600ET): After six weeks of speculation about how Indonesia had managed to avoid an outbreak, especially considering the thousands of travelers from Hubei that visited the country, the government of the world’s fourth-largest country had confirmed that two patients had tested positive on Monday, Reuters reports.
In other news, Goldman Sachs has postponed all non-essential travel for its staff “effective immediately” according to a memo seen by Reuters.
* * *
Meanwhile, here’s the State Department’s ‘Travel Advisory’ map. Areas marked ‘red’ indicate ‘Do Not Travel’, areas in yellow or yellow-black stripes are ‘exercise increased caution’ (it’s not clearly visible, but Italy has yellow-black stripes).
The CDC has its own travel advisory map (courtesy of NPR):
* * *
As the wild swings in US equity futures over the last few hours would suggest, we’re headed for another insane week of coronavirus news as America comes to grips with the outbreak as it claims a second life and spreads to the country’s largest city.
The American coronavirus outbreak accelerated rapidly over the weekend, as health officials confirmed the first virus-linked death on Saturday, before confirming a second death of a US citizen – this time a 70-year-old man – in the same area of Washington State.
As we explained last night, state and federal public-health officials are focusing on what appears to be a cluster of confirmed cases in Washington, where both deaths have occurred, as well as outbreaks in Oregon and California where patients had no clear path of transmission for the virus, leading officials to suspect that a more widespread outbreak has already begun. Late Sunday night, Gov. Cuomo confirmed the first case in Manhattan, involving a woman who had recently traveled to Iran. The news followed a seemingly unceasing stream of scares and negative tests in America’s largest city, according to the New York Times.
As we pointed out, the global death toll climbed above 3,000 last night as China reported another 42 deaths.
“Coronavirus Czar” and Vice President Mike Pence reiterated promises to make more testing kits available to state officials, reiterating promises made over the weekend. President Trump and other administration officials are also scheduled to meet with drug company execs on Monday.
The cases confirmed over the weekend were found in seven states: Washington, California, Illinois, Rhode Island, New York, Florida and Oregon, and included a mix of people who had traveled to high-risk countries, and others believed to have contracted the virus in the US.
Republican-controlled Florida defied Pence’s urges to ‘remain calm’ and declared a state of emergency on Sunday after the governor’s office confirmed 2 “presumptively positive” cases late Sunday, according to a Florida TV station.
Russia reported the first case of the virus in Moscow in a man who returned from Italy on Feb. 23, local newswires reported.
The cases were discovered in Florida’s Manatee County and Hillsborough County.
A patient in San Antonio, one of the evacuees, appeared to recover from the coronavirus illness and had been released from a health care facility after having tested negative twice in more than 24 hours was placed back into isolation, even after the CDC’s Dr. Anthony Fauci insisted that there was no evidence that people could be ‘reinfected’ after recovering from the virus.
Mayor of San Antonio. #covid19 https://t.co/pIm1vxROFD
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) March 2, 2020
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India’s health minister confirmed 2 new cases as the virus spreads in India and neighboring Pakistan. Health authorities in Portugal confirmed the first 2 cases in the country early Monday as the virus continues its spread across Europe. And Iran reported 523 new cases of coronavirus Monday morning and 11 new deaths, bringing the total to 1,501 cases confirmed and 66 dead.
After advising employees to stop non-essential travel over the weekend, Amazon said late Sunday that two of its employees in Milan have contracted the virus and are now under quarantine, the NYT reports.
“We’re supporting the affected employees who were in Milan and are now in quarantine,” company spokesman Dan Perlet said.
The world’s biggest online retailer said it was unaware of any U.S. employees who had contracted the virus. On Friday, Amazon told employees to stop non-essential travel, within the United States and beyond. The company also confirmed on Sunday it is moving some recruiting interviews to video rather than in person.
Over in China, on-the-ground reports claim that most Chinese have returned to work at this point. However, in the rush back to work, the CCP appears to have overlooked a few things…like worker-safety standards.
Chinese workers are working under these kinds of conditions to boost #CCP‘s GDP, which they are very proud of.
中共的 #GDP 有多少是底层民众的血与汗与命换来的。 pic.twitter.com/Hx0q7YulBW— 曾錚 Jennifer Zeng (@jenniferatntd) March 1, 2020
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As Chinese officials continue their campaign to convince the world, and the Chinese population, that the outbreak is subsiding and that everything will soon return to normal, State TV reports the first of 16 hospitals specially built in Wuhan to tackle the coronavirus epidemic.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/02/2020 – 20:19 - Friday's Dip Buying By Hedge Funds Was The Most Extreme In The Past Decade: Why This Is Worrying Morgan Stanley
Friday’s Dip Buying By Hedge Funds Was The Most Extreme In The Past Decade: Why This Is Worrying Morgan Stanley
Amid the broader market carnage which culminated with the fastest 10% S&P correction from an all time high, last week also we observed the biggest one-day point drop in the Dow Jones ever (this in turn was followed by the biggest one-day Dow point surge ever on Monday). But more notably, following several days of freefall, on Friday equity long/short hedge funds finally stepped up, and whether it ends up being the “best trade”, the “worst trade”, or something in between, Morgan Stanley’s prime brokerage writes that “the buying of US equities among Equity L/S funds on Friday was the biggest we’ve seen in the past decade.” And while Monday’s ramp certainly eased some concerns about another year of woeful hedge fund performance, Morgan Stanley cautions that depending on what happens to stocks from here, it “raises the risks that we could see a rotation and alpha drawdown, should these flows look to reverse in the future.”
As we first observed two weeks ago, the record high leverage, crowding, and factor risks among the hedge fund community have raised the risk for future violent hedge fund rotations.
And while we have not yet seen these risks realized in the sharp sell-off over the past weeks, the recent behavior and mixed performance among HFs has made Morgan Stanley more concerned that we could be getting closer to a sharp rotation. In particular, three of the things the bank is watching have changed recently and are driving its greater concern:
- HFs have been actively adding to gross leverage, particularly by adding longs in the largest amounts of the past decade last Thurs and Fri. This is concerning because in 3 of the 4 similar past episodes since 2014, large long selling has followed afterwards and has coincided with negative HF alpha (see Figure 1 below)
- L/S funds bought large amounts of Momentum last week (and sold Value), once again crushing Marko Kolanovic’s argument that a rotation out of momentum/low-vol and into value stocks is imminent.
- Performance (while good relative to the markets) has declined in absolute terms into negative territory and crowded stock performance has been mixed
So was Friday’s record dip buying a sign that hedge funds have finally gotten their mojo back and are again able to time market inflection points? According to Morgan Stanley that is hardly the case, and instead last week’s flush into risk assets merely underscores the top three rotation risks, which are as follows:
Rotation Risk Consideration #1: Largest Long Buying of Past Decade
Throughout the sharp sell-off last week, HF activity showed almost no signs of active de-grossing. In fact, the opposite was largely the case as L/S funds bought longs throughout last week and Quant funds generally added to both sides of their books to keep their leverage from falling as fast as it would simply due to the falling markets. Put simply, there were no real signs of capitulation among Hedge funds.
While this behavior of buying dips and adding to gross exposure is fairly common during market pullbacks, the magnitude of the long buying among L/S funds spiked to unprecedented levels on Friday. For context, the long buying on Thursday was in line with the prior high from 2010-2019 and Friday’s buying was ~75% higher than that. Similarly, large long buying has often come near short term market troughs, aside from what happened in late 2018 (i.e. HFs generally exhibited good timing from a broad market perspective). Looking at the peak long buying within the green ovals in Figure 1, they peaked on the following dates:
- Feb 6, 2014
- Aug 27, 2015
- Feb 9, 2018
- Oct 17, 2018
However, this behavior raises the rotation risk that Morgan Stanley’s Prime Brokerage has been getting more concerned about for a while. Essentially, the concern is that HFs have tended to sell longs afterwards (often as markets rebounded) and this selling coincided with negative alpha from L/S funds.
Notably, the one time there wasn’t a subsequent alpha drawdown in the next few months was early 2018. But as one can see from the next chart below, the long buying then was a reversal from long selling into the Jan ’18 peak, rather than an acceleration of long buying as we’ve seen recently. The chart below tracks the trend in the cumulative long activity over time to help show when longs have been built up or reduced. To be clear, HFs were covering shorts aggressively from 4Q17 to early ’18 so nets were going higher, but L/S funds weren’t arguably pressing their longs into the market high.
In addition, this chart shows that, while the long buying in Jan 2016 and Aug 2019 were not quite as extreme over a short period of time (as highlighted in the green rectangles in Figure 1), the long risk had been building for months leading up to the drawdowns in 1Q16 and Sep-Oct 2019.
Rotation Risk Consideration #2: Increased Momentum Buying (and Value Selling)
It’s not just that L/S funds were adding risk by buying the dip last week, what’s also notable is what they were buying. From a sector/industry perspective, they were mostly buying areas they’re already quite long: Software, IT Services (payments), Aero & Defense, Semis, Internet Retail, Hotels Restaurants & Leisure, and Entertainment.
From a factor standpoint, this manifested itself in one of the largest weeks of buying of Momentum in many years. It was the largest since last Sep (during the brief rebound after the sharp drawdown) and last Aug. In addition, it was the largest selling of Value in years. From a net exposure standpoint, L/S fund Momentum exposure is around the 50th %-tile since 2010 (and similar to where it stood prior to the selloff last Sep) while Value is around the 10th %-tile since 2010.
Rotation Risk Consideration #3: Performance Declines
For many HFs that are net long the market, there were few places to hide last week. Thus, it’s not surprising that funds lost about 4-5% gross last week as markets were down about 10%. This shifts returns into negative territory on a YTD basis. Needless to say, dipping into negative territory on a YTD basis early in the year is very different from doing so late in the year and leads to different investing behavior. Thus, being down about 2% hasn’t apparently triggered large de-grossing, especially as equity markets are now down 8-9% on the year.
For those looking for a performance trigger, Morgan Stanley suggests that one reference point might be early 2016. As the S&P sold off 9% from Dec 31 to Jan 20, L/S funds were down about 4-5%. However, the tipping point was that as the S&P rallied towards the end of Jan to be down only 5%, L/S were still down about 3.5-4% (i.e. there was little upside capture on the rebound). When markets started to sell-off again in early Feb and funds went back to being down closer to 5% on the year, they aggressively switched to de-grossing.
So while performance has held up so far, the concern is that a breakdown in returns could cause risk appetite to decline and de-grossing to increase. Two things to note on this front are:
- The crowded longs in the US have held in relatively well lately, but the 2 best days last week were last Thurs & Fri, which coincided with outsized long buying among HFs
- The crowded shorts have not been working well, which may suggest less cushion if the longs start underperforming
In conclusion, Morgan Stanley reminds us that a few weeks ago that the Combined Risk Metric of leverage-crowding-factors was back at highs, BUT that we had not yet seen aggressive HF behavior at that point and the rotations usually came a couple months after the metric hit highs. As such, “with the changes in behavior last week and more time passing, the risks of a rotation appear to be greater now and if capitulation (i.e. de-grossing) does play out among HFs, this would likely be fairly painful.”
Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/02/2020 – 20:05 - Beto O'Rourke Becomes Third Former Democratic Rival To Endorse Biden As 'Super Tuesday' Looms
Beto O’Rourke Becomes Third Former Democratic Rival To Endorse Biden As ‘Super Tuesday’ Looms
Update (2010ET): Buttigieg is looking like a strong contender in the nascent race to become Joe Biden’s VP pick.
Buttigieg and Biden enter Dallas’ Chicken Scratch restaurant pic.twitter.com/ZNkuxcYDfx
— Jennifer Epstein (@jeneps) March 3, 2020
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“I am delighted to endorse and support Joe Biden,” Buttigieg says with Biden in Dallas. pic.twitter.com/UCjwM4umfI
— Jennifer Epstein (@jeneps) March 3, 2020
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Beto O’Rourke will be the third former Democratic presidential contender to endorse Vice President Joe Biden Monday night during a rally in Dalls, the New York Times reports.
Former Representative Beto O’Rourke of Texas, who became a progressive star in his spirited race against Senator Ted Cruz before mounting a less-successful presidential campaign, will endorse Joseph R. Biden Jr. and appear with him in Dallas Monday night, according to two Democratic officials familiar with his plans.
Mr. O’Rourke, who dropped out of the primary last fall, has returned to his native El Paso and largely stayed out of the campaign.
But one night before the Texas primary, he will line up with his fellow former candidates, Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar, in their effort to coalesce behind Mr. Biden and slow the momentum of Bernie Sanders.
The shock-and-awe message is clear: Despite his innumberable stumbles and the fact that his campaign was on life-support just days ago (though he still has tens of millions in his campaign war chest), the DNC has anointed Joe Biden the winner of the primary.
At this point, the only non-Bernie frontrunner who hasn’t dropped out is Elizabeth Warren, who was probably busy Monday night celebrating the demise of Chris Matthews’ career, just the latest ‘scalp’ on Warren’s wall.
You shouldn’t have to be a billionaire with a concierge service to get tested, treated, and vaccinated for coronavirus. My plan will let every American get the coronavirus protections they need for free. https://t.co/JPsaw6Gvnq
— Elizabeth Warren (@ewarren) March 3, 2020
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On Twitter, Warren was busy sharing one of the several stories published Monday bashing the rich over imaginary resource hoarding that isn’t even happening.
You shouldn’t have to be a billionaire with a concierge service to get tested, treated, and vaccinated for coronavirus. My plan will let every American get the coronavirus protections they need for free. https://t.co/JPsaw6Gvnq
— Elizabeth Warren (@ewarren) March 3, 2020
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Still, Robyn Kanner’s 72 hours aren’t yet up.
I think we’re only 72 hours out from an overwhelming majority of Presidential candidates dropping out. It’s been a hell of a race. Proud of all the staffers on campaigns. Let’s unite. Let’s beat Trump.
— Robyn Kanner (@robynkanner) March 1, 2020
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Here’s Buttigieg endorsing Biden live. We expect to see Beto and Amy shortly.
HAPPENING NOW: Pete Buttigieg endorses Joe Biden at campaign rally in Dallas https://t.co/H9n7JKbYS7 pic.twitter.com/faHkxRmbuq
— CBS News (@CBSNews) March 3, 2020
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Though Bloomberg is stubbornly hanging on (for now), unless something incredibly shocking happens tomorrow, it’s pretty much down to Biden vs. Bernie. Although, as Trump argued earlier, it’s not really a race – it’s a coup.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/02/2020 – 20:04 - Matthews Out At MSNBC After Sexism, Bigotry, Racism, & Senior Moments
Matthews Out At MSNBC After Sexism, Bigotry, Racism, & Senior Moments
Oh, the perfect irony that after almost four years of abusing Donald Trump (during his campaign and presidency) for endless character flaws, it will be President Trump that outlasts the MSDNC anchor.
At the beginning of tonight’s show – ‘Hardball’ – Chris Matthews abruptly announced his retirement after a tumultuous month that included calls for his firing.
“I’m retiring. This is the last ‘Hardball’ on MSNBC, and obviously this isn’t for lack of interest in politics,” the 74-year-old said in addressing the audience in scripted remarks.
“As you can tell, I’ve loved every minute of my 20 years as host of Hardball. Every morning I read the papers and gung-ho to get to work. Not many people have had this privilege.”
— Hardball (@hardball) March 3, 2020
“Retired” is one way of calling it…
Matthews was notably absent from the network’s live coverage of the South Carolina primary on Saturday, one day after being accused of sexual harassment by GQ columnist Laura Bassett (lambasting Matthews for comments made to a variety of women during his MSNBC career).
“I was afraid to name him at the time for fear of retaliation from the network; I’m not anymore. It was Chris Matthews. In 2016, right before I had to go on his show and talk about sexual-assault allegations against Donald Trump, Matthews looked over at me in the makeup chair next to him and said, ‘Why haven’t I fallen in love with you yet?’
So he is a sexist?
“Another time, he stood between me and the mirror and complimented the red dress I was wearing for the segment. ‘You going out tonight?’ he asked,” Bassett wrote, adding that Matthews told the makeup artists at the time, “Make sure you wipe this off her face after the show. We don’t make her up so some guy at a bar can look at her like this.”
And a bigot?
Then things got super awkward during coverage of President Donald Trump’s rally in South Carolina on Friday evening when Matthews thought Republican South Carolina Senator Tim Scott was Jaime Harrison, a Democrat running against the other senator from that state, Lindsey Graham.
The exchange between Matthews and Harrison occurred after the two had already spoken several minutes prior. Later, when Matthews saw Scott standing next to Graham, he mistook the junior South Carolina senator for Graham’s black Democratic opponent.
“Jaime, I see you standing next to the guy you’re gonna beat right there, maybe, maybe maybe, Lindsey Graham,” Matthews quipped.
“That’s Tim Scott, Tim Scott,” a female voice said off-camera.
“Jaime?” Matthews said.
“Who is that?” said the obviously confused MSNBC anchor after another correction.
“That’s Tim Scott,” Harrison said, smiling.
And is having senior moments?
Confusing two Americans because they have the same skin color?
Omg Chris Matthews Just confused Jamie Harrison for Tim Scott!
But don’t worry about it Chris I think all you old white men with toupees all look alike too! #hardball pic.twitter.com/83OGMX6sP3— Mayday Mindy🌹🌊 (@maydaymindy9) February 29, 2020
Or is he racist?
Perhaps he should have ‘removed from office’ sooner?
In fact after his statement of retirement, Matthews attempted to address some of the recent controversies and allegations around him, trying to offer an apology.
“After my conversation with NBC, I decided tonight will be my last ‘Hardball.’ I’ll tell you why. The younger generations are ready to take the reigns. We see them in Politics, the media, they have proven in the workplace. They grew up with better standards, fair standards.”
“Compliments on a woman’s appearance some men, including me, might have once incorrectly thought were okay were never okay. Certainly not today. For making such comments in the past, I’m sorry.”
Have a great retirement Chris. Watching Trump win in November.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/02/2020 – 19:40 - The Nobility Of Tulsi Gabbard
The Nobility Of Tulsi Gabbard
Authored by W.J.Astore via BracingViews.com,
In the South Carolina primary won on Saturday by Joe Biden, Tulsi Gabbard earned only 1.3% of the vote. Her poor showing was due in part to her outcast status among the Democratic establishment joined by mainstream media outlets like MSNBC and CNN.
Speaking of CNN, I caught a few minutes of coverage over the weekend during which its commentators confessed they couldn’t understand why Tulsi was still running. One person (Anderson Cooper, the weasel) suggested she was angling for a job with Fox News.
Of course, Tulsi’s principled opposition to regime-change wars and other disastrous U.S. foreign policy decisions went unmentioned. When her name is mentioned by the corporate-owned media, it’s usually in the context of the candidate most likely to succeed – in Russia.
By running in the election, Tulsi Gabbard continues to make an invaluable contribution:
She highlights the power of the military-industrial-Congressional-media complex and its rejection of any candidate willing to challenge it.
Gabbard’s status as a major in the Hawaii Army National Guard, her service in Congress on the House Armed Services Committee, her military deployments to Iraq: all of this is downplayed or dismissed. Meanwhile, Mayor Pete’s brief stint in Afghanistan is celebrated as the height of military service. What’s the difference between them? Mayor Pete plays ball with big donors and parrots talking points of the Complex – Tulsi doesn’t.
In a recent op-ed for The Hill, Tulsi yet again does America a service by calling out red baiting in America’s elections. Here’s how her op-ed begins:
Reckless claims by anonymous intelligence officials that Russia is “helping” Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) are deeply irresponsible. So was former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s calculated decision Tuesday to repeat this unsubstantiated accusation on the debate stage in South Carolina. Enough is enough. I am calling on all presidential candidates to stop playing these dangerous political games and immediately condemn any interference in our elections by out-of-control intelligence agencies.
A “news article” published last week in The Washington Post, which set off yet another manufactured media firestorm, alleges that the goal of Russia is to trick people into criticizing establishment Democrats. This is a laughably obvious ploy to stifle legitimate criticism and cast aspersions on Americans who are rightly skeptical of the powerful forces exerting control over the primary election process. We are told the aim of Russia is to “sow division,” but the aim of corporate media and self-serving politicians pushing this narrative is clearly to sow division of their own — by generating baseless suspicion against the Sanders campaign.
Tulsi is right here – and she’s right when she says that:
The American people have the right to know this information in order to put Russia’s alleged “interference” into proper perspective. It is a mystery why the Intelligence Community would want to hide these details from us. Instead it is relying on highly dubious and vague insinuations filtered through its preferred media outlets, which seem designed to create a panic rather than actually inform the public about a genuine threat.
All this does is undermine voters’ trust in our elections, which is what we are constantly told is the goal of Russia.
She also accurately notes how the “corporate media will do everything they can to turn the general election into a contest of who is going to be ‘tougher’ on Russia. This tactic is necessary to propagandize the American people into shelling over their hard-earned tax dollars to the Pentagon to fund the highly lucrative nuclear arms race that the military-industrial complex craves.”
Tulsi Gabbard may not be in the democratic race much longer, but that’s not because she lacks guts. Indeed, her willingness to buck the system – and her commitment to making the world a less militaristic place – make her a notable candidate. She’s been a noble voice crying in a corrupt and self-serving wilderness.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/02/2020 – 19:20 - Bill Fleckenstein: Coronavirus Will Cause A "Confidence Crisis" In The Fed
Bill Fleckenstein: Coronavirus Will Cause A “Confidence Crisis” In The Fed
Money manager and metals specialist Bill Fleckenstein appeared on the Quoth the Raven Podcast on Sunday to give his thoughts about gold, the market’s reaction to coronavirus and the Fed’s coming “confidence crisis”.
Gold
First, talking about last week’s move in gold, Fleckenstein says he doesn’t attribute the move to margin calls, as many had speculated. He instead says that gold likely just fell victim to “hot money”, which he noted often happens when gold spot rallies hard and the miners don’t follow – exactly what happened last week.
Bill said:
“Gold has gone up, but the mining stocks really didn’t participate. That concerned me because when the mining stock sputter and gold keeps going, then gold gets hit,” he says.
He continued:
“When gold was spiking on the coronavirus news, it didn’t quite act right in conjunction with other things, and I was a little nervous. Then, of course, it got destroyed on Friday. I suspect there was a lot of trend following money in gold. A lot of hot money. Hot money because it’s going up.“
The Market’s Volatility
The rally late last week was because people thought the “Fed was going to save them”. Fleckenstein says he doesn’t believe it to be the case that the Fed is going to give the market a rate cut anytime soon. He thinks the market will have to crash further before central banks intervene.
He also doesn’t think we’ve seen real panic in the equity markets yet.
“When I look at the personalities of some of the absolute crap, like Tesla, they’re still valued like a total joke. I don’t think we saw a hell of a lot of panic,” he says.
“This was not about illiquidity”.
The Fed’s Coming Crisis
Bill continued: “The Central Banks are going to get panicked. They’re panic prone because they’re so stupid,” he says.
He also thinks the market is eventually going to wise-up to what the Fed is doing:
“This is the moment in time we have been waiting for. Those of us who think these central bank policies are no good. We’re at the moment in time where they could lose credibility to a certain degree,” he says of the Federal Reserve.
“Slowly but surely people could realize it’s not working.”
He continued: “The Fed probably won’t cut today and the market’s going to keep getting tatered until the Fed does. But the real opportunity on the short side will be the big rally after when the Fed cuts. That rally ought to fail. If that failed rally occurs and they start down again, they will accelerate a lot, and you will have broken the psychology of the ‘The Fed can rescue us’.”
“Then you can have much more of the crash. That’s kind of the road map that I see,” he says.
You can listen to the entire podcast here:
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Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/02/2020 – 19:00
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