- The Myth Of Moderate Nuclear War
The Myth Of Moderate Nuclear War
Authored by Brian Cloughley via The Strategic Culture Foundation,
There are many influential supporters of nuclear war, and some of these contend that the use of ‘low-yield’ and/or short-range weapons is practicable without the possibility of escalation to all-out Armageddon.
In a way their argument is comparable to that of the band of starry-eyed optimists who thought, apparently seriously, that there could be such a beast as a ‘moderate rebel’.
In October 2013 the Washington Post reported that “The CIA is expanding a clandestine effort to train opposition fighters in Syria amid concern that moderate, US-backed militias are rapidly losing ground in the country’s civil war,” and the US Congress gave approval to then President Barack Obama’s plan for training and arming moderate Syrian rebels to fight against Islamic State extremists. The belief that there could be any grouping of insurgents that could be described as “moderate rebels” is bizarre and it would be fascinating to know how Washington’s planners classify such people. It obviously didn’t dawn on them that any person who uses weapons illegally in a rebellion could not be defined as being moderate. And how moderate is moderate? Perhaps a moderate rebel could be equipped with US weapons that kill only extremists? Or are they allowed to kill only five children a month? The entire notion was absurd, and predictably the scheme collapsed, after expenditure of vast amounts of US taxpayers’ money.
And even vaster amounts of money are being spent on developing and producing what might be classed as moderate nuclear weapons, in that they don’t have the zillion-bang punch of most of its existing 4,000 plus warheads. It is apparently widely believed in Washington that if a nuclear weapon is (comparatively) small, then it’s less dangerous than a big nuclear weapon.
In January 2019 the Guardian reported that “the Trump administration has argued the development of a low-yield weapon would make nuclear war less likely, by giving the US a more flexible deterrent. It would counter any enemy (particularly Russian) perception that the US would balk at using its own fearsome arsenal in response to a limited nuclear attack because its missiles were all in the hundreds of kilotons range and ‘too big to use’, because they would cause untold civilian casualties.”
In fact, the nuclear war envisaged in that scenario would be a global catastrophe — as would all nuclear wars, because there’s no way, no means whatever, of limiting escalation. Once a nuclear weapon has exploded and killed people, the nuclear-armed nation to which these people belonged is going to take massive action. There is no alternative, because no government is just going to sit there and try to start talking with an enemy that has taken the ultimate leap in warfare.
It is widely imagined — by many nuclear planners in the sub-continent, for example — that use of a tactical, a battlefield-deployed, nuclear weapon will in some fashion persuade the opponent (India or Pakistan) that there is no need to employ higher-capability weapons, or, in other words, longer range missiles delivering massive warheads. These people think that the other side will evaluate the situation calmly and dispassionately and come to the conclusion that at most it should itself reply with a similar weapon. But such a scenario supposes that there is good intelligence about the effects of the weapon that has exploded, most probably within the opponent’s sovereign territory. This is verging on the impossible.
War is confusing in the extreme, and tactical planning can be extremely complex. But there is no precedent for nuclear war, and nobody — nobody — knows for certain what reactions will be to such a situation in or near any nation. The US 2018 Nuclear Posture Review stated that low-yield weapons “help ensure that potential adversaries perceive no possible advantage in limited nuclear escalation, making nuclear employment less likely”. But do the possible opponents of the United States agree with that? How could they do so?
The reaction by any nuclear-armed state to what is confirmed as a nuclear attack will have to be swift. It cannot be guaranteed, for example, that the first attack will not represent a series. It will, by definition, be decisive, because the world will then be a tiny step from doomsday. The US nuclear review is optimistic that “flexibility” will by some means limit a nuclear exchange, or even persuade the nuked-nation that there should be no riposte, which is an intriguing hypothesis.
As pointed out by Lawfare, “the review calls for modification to ‘a small number of existing submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) warheads’ to provide a low-yield option.
It also calls for further exploration of low-yield options, arguing that expanding these options will ‘help ensure that potential adversaries perceive no possible advantage in limited nuclear escalation, making nuclear employment less likely.’ This is intended to address the argument that adversaries might think the United States, out of concern for collateral damage, would hesitate to employ a high-yield nuclear weapon in response to a ‘lower level’ conflict, in which an adversary used a low-yield nuclear device. The review argues that expanding low-yield options is ‘important for the preservation of credible deterrence,’ especially when it comes to smaller-scale regional conflicts.”
“Credible deterrence” is a favourite catch-phrase of the believers in limited nuclear war, but its credibility is suspect. Former US defence secretary William Perry said last year that he wasn’t so much worried about the vast number of warheads in the world as he was by open proposals that these weapons are “usable”. It’s right back to the Cold War and he emphasises that “The belief that there might be tactical advantage using nuclear weapons – which I haven’t heard being openly discussed in the United States or in Russia for a good many years – is happening now in those countries which I think is extremely distressing.” But the perturbing thing is that while it is certainly being discussed in Moscow, it’s verging on doctrine in Washington.
In late February US Defence Secretary Esper was reported as having taken part in a “classified military drill in which Russia and the United States traded nuclear strikes.” The Pentagon stated that “The scenario included a European contingency where you’re conducting a war with Russia and Russia decides to use a low-yield, limited nuclear weapon against a site on NATO territory.” The US response was to fire back with what was called a “limited response.”
First of all, the notion that Russia would take the first step to nuclear war is completely baseless, and there is no evidence that this could ever be contemplated. But ever if it were to be so, it cannot be imagined for an instant that Washington would indulge in moderate nuclear warfare in riposte.
These self-justifying wargames are dangerous. And they bring Armageddon ever closer.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/04/2020 – 00:05 - China's Rare Earth Monopoly Is Diminishing
China’s Rare Earth Monopoly Is Diminishing
Some while ago, rare earth metals important in the production of microchips, electronics and electric motors were almost exclusively sourced in China. However, as Statista’s Katharina Buchholz notes, in recent years, several nations have picked up production again while new players entered the market, diversifying it at least to some degree.
You will find more infographics at Statista
China was still responsible for almost two thirds of global production in 2019, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. But as many countries are wary of depending on China, especially when it comes to technology products, countries with rare earth deposits are likely to exploit them further. The U.S., however, is still shipping its rare earths to China for processing, but a first processing plant on American soil is in the planning stages with funding help from the U.S. army.
China also has the largest know deposits of rare earths, but Brazil, Vietnam and Russia also have a lot of (largely) untapped potential in the sector. The United States and Australia ramped up production of rare earths after 2010 and most recently, Myanmar has been mining considerable amount. As seen in the chart above, the U.S. had in the past mined and produced rare earths for military uses and re-entered the market as rare earths were getting more important as a part of the implementation of crucial technologies.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 03/03/2020 – 23:45 - What Is An SDR And Will It Be The Next World Reserve Currency?
What Is An SDR And Will It Be The Next World Reserve Currency?
Submitted by Jan Nieuwenhuijs for Voima Insight.
Courtesy Users’ Guide To The SDR: A Manual of Transactions and Operations in SDRs.
But because a unit of gold is more expensive, and its price has gone up since 2009, the amount of gold added by the PBoC since then is worth 50 billion SDRs at today’s prices, which is 9,491% more than the 50 million in SDR reserves increment.
The views expressed on Voima Insight are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official views or position of Voima Gold.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 03/03/2020 – 23:25 - Bernie-Supporting Denver Councilwoman Encourages Coronavirus Patients To Attend MAGA Rallies
Bernie-Supporting Denver Councilwoman Encourages Coronavirus Patients To Attend MAGA Rallies
A Denver councilwoman has come under fire for praising a now-deleted tweet from a user who said they would attend “every MAGA rally I can” if they are infected with the new coronavirus.
Candi CdeBaca (D) tweeted “#solidarity Yaaaas!!” in support of the message:
And surprise, she’s a supporter of Bernie Sanders – whose staffers were caught on hidden camera espousing the virtues of throwing rich people in literal gulags while they redistribute their wealth.
The Denver city councilwoman who’s encouraging people with coronavirus to go to Trump rallies to spread the virus is a… Bernie Sanders supporter. I bet you’re all shocked. 🙄
This is what so many socialist Democrats like her really want, to kill Republicans. Absolutely sick. pic.twitter.com/L5H2IT5QCu
— Robby Starbuck (@robbystarbuck) March 3, 2020
In response to the tweet, CdeBaca’s office said: “Councilwoman CdeBaca made a sarcastic tweet on Twitter to call attention to the Trump administration’s downplaying of the Coronavirus outbreak as a “hoax” no more dangerous than the common flu. Rather than conservative outlets making a four-day-old Tweet their focus on Super Tuesday, they should focus their energy on demanding a competent Federal response to this public health crisis instead.”
The Colorado Republican Party, meanwhile, said in response: “Councilwoman CdeBaca praising a social media post calling for Trump supporters to be infected with the coronavirus is simply disgusting. There can be no room in our politics for wishing harm on Americans who have different political beliefs. Democrats in Colorado and across the country need to condemn this evil statement,” “In light of these comments, the Colorado Republican Party is calling on Councilwoman CdeBaca to resign immediately.”
Tyler Durden
Tue, 03/03/2020 – 23:05 - The Syria Deception
The Syria Deception
Submitted by the Swiss Propaganda Research organization
Understanding the geopolitical and psychological war against Syria.
What is the Syria war about?
Contrary to the depiction in Western media, the Syria war is not a civil war. This is because the initiators, financiers and a large part of the anti-government fighters come from abroad.
Nor is the Syria war a religious war, for Syria was and still is one of the most secular countries in the region, and the Syrian army – like its direct opponents – is itself mainly composed of Sunnis.
But the Syria war is also not a pipeline war, as some critics suspected, because the allegedly competing gas pipeline projects never existed to begin with, as even the Syrian president confirmed.
Instead, the Syria war is a war of conquest and regime change, which developed into a geopolitical proxy war between NATO states on one side – especially the US, Great Britain and France – and Russia, Iran and China on the other side.
In fact, already since the 1940s the US has repeatedly attempted to install a pro-Western government in Syria, such as in 1949, 1956, 1957, after 1980 and after 2003, but without success so far. This makes Syria – since the fall of Libya – the last Mediterranean country independent of NATO.
Thus, in the course of the “Arab Spring” of 2011, NATO and its allies, especially Israel and the Gulf States, decided to try again. To this end, politically and economically motivated protests in Syria were used and were quickly escalated into an armed conflict.
NATO’s original strategy of 2011 was based on the Afghanistan war of the 1980s and aimed at conquering Syria mainly through positively portrayed Islamist militias (so-called “rebels”). This did not succeed, however, because the militias lacked an air force and anti-aircraft missiles.
Hence from 2013 onwards, various poison gas attacks were staged in order to be able to deploy the NATO air force as part of a “humanitarian intervention” similar to the earlier wars against Libya and Yugoslavia. But this did not succeed either, mainly because Russia and China blocked a UN mandate.
As of 2014, therefore, additional but negatively portrayed Islamist militias (“terrorists”) were covertly established in Syria and Iraq via NATO partners Turkey and Jordan, secretly supplied with weapons and vehicles and indirectly financed by oil exports via the Turkish Ceyhan terminal.
ISIS: Supply and export routes through NATO partners Turkey and Jordan (ISW / Atlantic, 2015)
Media-effective atrocity propaganda and mysterious “terrorist attacks” in Europe and the US then offered the opportunity to intervene in Syria using the NATO air force even without a UN mandate – ostensibly to fight the “terrorists”, but in reality still to conquer Syria and topple its government.
This plan failed again, however, as Russia also used the presence of the “terrorists” in autumn 2015 as a justification for direct military intervention and was now able to attack both the “terrorists” and parts of NATO’s “rebels” while simultaneously securing the Syrian airspace to a large extent.
By the end of 2016, the Syrian army thus succeeded in recapturing the city of Aleppo.
From 2016 onwards, NATO therefore switched back to positively portrayed but now Kurdish-led militias (the SDF) in order to still have unassailable ground forces available and to conquer the Syrian territory held by the previously established “terrorists” before Syria and Russia could do so themselves.
This led to a kind of “race” to conquer cities such as Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor in 2017 and to a temporary division of Syria along the Euphrates river into a (largely) Syrian-controlled West and a Kurdish (or rather American) controlled East (see map above).
This move, however, brought NATO into conflict with its key member Turkey, because Turkey did not accept a Kurdish-controlled territory on its southern border. As a result, the NATO alliance became increasingly divided from 2018 onwards.
Turkey now fought the Kurds in northern Syria and at the same time supported the remaining Islamists in the north-western province of Idlib against the Syrian army, while the Americans eventually withdrew to the eastern Syrian oil fields in order to retain a political bargaining chip.
While Turkey supported Islamists in northern Syria, Israel more or less covertly supplied Islamists in southern Syria and at the same time fought Iranian and Lebanese (Hezbollah) units with air strikes, but ultimately without success: the militias in southern Syria had to surrender in 2018.
Ultimately, some NATO members tried to use a confrontation between the Turkish and Syrian armies in the province of Idlib as a last option to escalate the war. In addition to the situation in Idlib, the issues of the occupied territories in the north and east of Syria remain to be resolved, too.
Russia, for its part, has tried to draw Turkey out of the NATO alliance and onto its own side as far as possible. Modern Turkey, however, is pursuing a rather far-reaching geopolitical strategy of its own, which is also increasingly clashing with Russian interests in the Middle East and Central Asia.
As part of this geopolitical strategy, Turkey in 2015 and 2020 even used the so-called »weapon of mass migration«, which may serve to destabilize both Syria (so-called strategic depopulation) and Europe, as well as to extort financial, political or military support from the European Union.
What role did the Western media play in this war?
The task of NATO-compliant media was to portray the war against Syria as a “civil war, the Islamist “rebels” positively, the Islamist “terrorists” and the Syrian government negatively, the alleged “poison gas attacks” credibly and the NATO intervention consequently as legitimate.
An important tool for this media strategy were the numerous Western-sponsored “media centres”, “activist groups”, “Twitter girls”, “human rights observatories” and the like, which provided Western news agencies and media with the desired images and information.
Since 2019, NATO-compliant media moreover had to conceal or discredit various leaks and whistleblowers that began to prove the covert Western arms deliveries to the Islamist “rebels” and “terrorists” as well as the staged “poison gas attacks”.
But if even the “terrorists” in Syria were demonstrably established and equipped by NATO states, what role then did the mysterious “caliph of terror” Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi play? He possibly played a similar role as his direct predecessor, Omar al-Baghdadi – who was a phantom.
Thanks to new communication technologies and on-site sources, the Syria war was also the first war about which independent media could report almost in real-time and thus for the first time significantly influenced the public perception of events – a potentially historic change.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 03/03/2020 – 22:45 - Tesla Downgrades Hardware On "New" Model 3s In China, Then Delivers Them Anyway To Unsuspecting Customers
Tesla Downgrades Hardware On “New” Model 3s In China, Then Delivers Them Anyway To Unsuspecting Customers
It looks like Tesla may have finally found a way to use up all of that old, unused inventory that’s been sitting on the company’s balance sheet: make new cars with old parts, and blame the coronavirus.
At least, that’s exactly what it appears the company is doing in China, according to a recent report by Xinhua.
On Tuesday, the news broke that Tesla was “downgrading” hardware on its China made Model 3 due to “supply chain status amid the epidemic” and it then promised free upgrades to its customers. Instead of just doing the right thing, which would be suspending production until you can make the product property, Tesla is doing what it does best: half assing it.
The report points out that some Chinese consumers were noticing that the hardware in their newly delivered Tesla vehicles was inconsistent with their orders. Tesla responded by saying that Hardware 2.5 had been installed in some vehicles that were promised Hardware 3.0.
Isn’t that a nice way to find out, as a consumer, that you’re not getting what you ordered?
Elsewhere, this would look suspiciously like a bait and switch. And it appears from Xinhua’s report that Tesla only fessed up after consumers started to take notice. We’d also be extremely interested in finding out when and how Tesla delivers on the promise of “free upgrades” for the customers taking delivery of their vehicles, with the wrong hardware, now.
The company’s Gigafactory in China resumed work on Feburary 10.
People on social media were skeptical – to say the least. But it seems as long as Tesla’s stock holds up, Elon Musk will continue to get away with things like this. It’s when the tide goes out on the stock that we’re most interested in finding out what bubbles to the surface:
Imagine Ford pulling a stunt like this?
“Here’s your new F150. We ran out of V8 engines, so we put a 4-cylinder in for now.”$TSLA $TSLAQ $F $GM https://t.co/GHay1wGwah
— passthebeano (@passthebeano) March 3, 2020
Tyler Durden
Tue, 03/03/2020 – 22:25 - Physicist Says Parallel Universes Definitely Exist And We May Soon Explore Them
Physicist Says Parallel Universes Definitely Exist And We May Soon Explore Them
Authored by Aaron Kesel via TheMindUnleashed.com,
Theoretical physicist Sean Carroll expressed that clues in the small-scale structure of the universe point to the existence of numerous parallel worlds.
The shocking comments were made on the Jeff Rogan Experience (JRE) podcast last year. Carroll says that the fact that tiny particles like electrons and photons don’t have one set location in the universe is evidence that there are many parallel universes.
Recently, in a follow up interview with News.com.au, Carroll expanded his thoughts.
“But there’s a lot more going on,” Carroll told News.com.au. “Not every world you imagine actually comes true.”
The common sense rules of physics that rule our lives everyday make sense to us but at very minuscule scales common sense breaks down altogether. At the quantum level, the empty vacuum of space is filled with tiny particles constantly popping in and out of existence.
Bell’s theorem, a fundamental construct in quantum mechanics, may prove that multiverses exist.
This theorem deals with situations where particles interact with each other, become entangled, and then go their separate ways, according to New Scientist.
“There are still equations, physical rules, patterns that must be obeyed. Some possible alternate worlds can come true. But not all of them,” Carroll said.
In the past, Carroll has advanced some groundbreaking yet controversial theories on topics such as the Big Bang theory and the nature of time.
He has said that the universe didn’t start in a huge explosion as most people now believe, but instead it is an infinitely old, constantly inflating entity in which time can run both forward and backward.
For Carroll quantum physics is not something that can be broken down and explained in simpler terms.
“As far as we currently know,” he writes.
“Quantum mechanics isn’t just an approximation to the truth; it is the truth.”
“Physics is stuck trying to understand the fundamentals of nature and the Big Bang,” Carroll said.
“It’s time to take a step back and understand its foundations. It’s time to tackle our understanding of the quantum world.”
In 2011 physicist Brian Greene wrote a book exploring the possibility called The Hidden Reality: Parallel Universes and the Deep Laws of the Cosmos.
“You almost can’t avoid having some version of the multiverse in your studies if you push deeply enough in the mathematical descriptions of the physical universe,” Greene told NPR.
“There are many of us thinking of one version of parallel universe theory or another. If it’s all a lot of nonsense, then it’s a lot of wasted effort going into this far-out idea. But if this idea is correct, it is a fantastic upheaval in our understanding.”
Even Stephen Hawking suggested that, thanks to quantum mechanics, the Big Bang supplied us with an endless number of universes, not just one.
Up until this point understanding quantum physics and its realms has been impossible, but Carroll hopes that is changing thanks to technology.
“Now we’re getting better at that,” Carroll says. “Technology has improved. Maybe things are going to change.”
Greene, Carroll, and Hawking may be right, and researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee want to find out if there are multiverses or mirror images of our own reality. The team was set to record experiments last year sending a beam of subatomic particles down a 50-foot tunnel, past a powerful magnet and into an impenetrable wall.
“If it exists, it would form a bubble of reality nestling within the fabric of space and time alongside our own familiar universe, with some particles capable of switching between the two,” lead researcher Leah Broussard told New Scientist.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 03/03/2020 – 22:05 - "No Child Should Feel Stigmatized": California Bill Would Punish Retailers With Separate Boys And Girls Departments
“No Child Should Feel Stigmatized”: California Bill Would Punish Retailers With Separate Boys And Girls Departments
A bill introduced by a California Democratic lawmaker would punish stores that separate toys, clothing and other children’s items into separate boys and girls sections – forcing them to pay a $1000 fine, according to The Federalist Papers.
“I was inspired to introduce this bill after 8-year-old Britten asked, ‘Why should a store tell me what a girl’s shirt or toy is?” said California State Assembly member Evan Low of Silicon Valley, who unveiled AB 2826 last week. “Her bill will help children express themselves freely and without bias. We need to let kids be kids.”
Via a press release by Low:
Clothing and toys sections of department stores that are separated along gender lines pigeonhole children. No child should feel stigmatized for wearing a dinosaur shirt or playing with a Barbie doll, and separating items that are traditionally marketed for either girls or boys makes it more difficult for the consumer to compare products. It also incorrectly implies that their use by one gender is inappropriate.
The bill states:
This bill would require a retail department store with 500 or more employees to maintain undivided areas of its sales floor where, if it sells childcare articles, children’s clothing, or toys, all childcare items, all clothing for children, or all toys, regardless of whether a particular item has traditionally been marketed for either girls or for boys, shall be displayed. Beginning on January 1, 2023, the bill would make a retail department store that fails to correct a violation of these provisions within 30 days of receiving written notice of the violation from the Attorney General liable for a civil penalty of $1,000, as provided.
…
(a) A retail department store shall maintain one, undivided area of its sales floor where, if it sells childcare articles, all childcare articles, regardless of whether a particular item has traditionally been marketed for either girls or for boys, shall be displayed.
(b) A retail department store shall maintain one, undivided area of its sales floor where, if it sells children’s clothing, all clothing for children, regardless of whether a particular item has traditionally been marketed for either girls or for boys, shall be displayed.
(c) A retail department store shall maintain one, undivided area of its sales floor where, if it sells toys, all toys, regardless of whether a particular item has traditionally been marketed for either girls or for boys, shall be displayed.
Yet another ‘quirk’ for California retailers to love about the Golden State.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 03/03/2020 – 21:45 - How James Madison Lay The Ground For American Paranoia
How James Madison Lay The Ground For American Paranoia
Authored by Daniel Lazare via The Strategic Culture Foundation,
People have always wondered what makes America so paranoid. The historian Richard Hofstadter wrote about it in 1964 in a famous Harper’s essay, “The Paranoid Style in American Politics,” that he later expanded into a book. He took aim at all the usual suspects: Joe McCarthy going on about “a great conspiracy on a scale so immense,” turn-of-the-century Populists warning of international bankers seeking to crucify Americans on a cross of gold, antebellum Know-Nothings raving about Catholics and the Pope, and so on.
But one aspect Hofstadter didn’t address is why.
Why is it that Americans are so quick to blame their problems on others instead of themselves? Rather than analyzing their society in a calm and sensible way, why do they continually go in search of mysterious foreign cabals?
The question has never been more relevant than in an age of Russia, Russia, Russia. If Joe Biden is sagging at the polls, if Bernie Sanders is surging, or if Donald Trump is seemingly headed for a second term, then it can only mean one thing: the Kremlin is at it again. As the New York Times declared in all seriousness in explaining why Sanders and Trump are benefiting at Biden’s expense, it’s because they “represent the most divergent ends of their respective parties, and both are backed by supporters known more for their passion than their policy rigor, which makes them ripe for exploitation by Russian trolls, disinformation specialists, and hackers for hire seeking to widen divisions in American society.”
Since Russia finds it easier to manipulate Americans when they gravitate to the extremes, that’s where it somehow causes them to wind up.
Or so corporate media assure us. But where does such paranoid nonsense come from and why does the press bombard us with it night and day?
Although Hofstadter traced the problem back to the mid-nineteenth century, we can trace it back even farther – all the way, in fact, to the nation’s founding. Indeed, we might argue, with only slight exaggeration, that it began with a single individual: James Madison.
Madison, of course, is the wealthy Virginia slaveowner who played a leading role in the Constitutional Convention in 1787 and was an equally important figure in the great ratification debate that followed immediately after. He wrote 29 of the 85 newspaper articles known as the Federalist Papers, which expounded the new plan of government to his fellow countrymen.
And he authored the all-important Federalist No. 10, the essay that political scientists never tire of quoting, which argues that democracy must be endlessly checked and balanced against itself in order to prevent Americans from coming together in “a rage for paper money, for an abolition of debts, for an equal division of property, or for any other improper or wicked project.”
A Bernie supporter he was not. But Madison was even pithier in an October 1787 letter to Thomas Jefferson in which he summed up the meaning of checks and balances and separation of powers in a single sentence.
“Divide et impera,” he wrote, “the reprobated axiom of tyranny, is under certain qualifications, the only policy, by which a republic can be administered on just principles.
These twenty-five words tell you everything you need to know about American politics, including why they’re now in such trouble. Divide et impera, Latin for “divide and conquer,” is Madison’s ironic justification for dividing government up into separate executive, legislative, and judicial functions and then pitting them against one another so as to neutralize democracy’s most dangerous tendencies.
The idea is to structure the polity in such a way that it ends up more rational and moderate than any of its components. But divide et impera leads to a paradox. If, as the Preamble to the Constitution states, “we the people” are the prime movers in the new republic, able to “ordain and establish” new constitutions and destroy old ones in the bargain like the 1783 Articles of Confederation, then what happens once they undergo the self-division and conquest that Madison describes? Are they still “we the people”? Or are they now an agglomeration of splintered sub-groups without any sense of collective democratic identity or will?
Anyone who studies American fragmentation will suspect it’s the latter. But that leads to another question. Psychologists tell us that a healthy, well-balanced adult is one whose intellect, emotions, and drives come together to form a balanced and integrated whole. Since the individual is in charge of all his faculties, he’s able to marshal his resources so as to solve problems, work creatively, and process information clearly, logically, and accurately.
But if those same faculties are fragmented and mutually at odds, the opposite occurs. Instead of marshalling his resource, the individual is paralyzed and confused. Instead of seeing the world as it is, he shies at phantoms of his own making. As a Bosnian psychologist named Vito Zepinic explained a few years ago, “the vulnerable self-structure of traumatized individuals” leads to “difficulties in self-regulation (self-esteem maintenance, lower tolerance levels, and the sense of self-discontinuity)” and “frequent upsurges of anxiety/fear, depression, and specific fears or phobias regarding the external world…”
What holds for individual patients also holds for a collective personality like the United States. Since 2000, it has suffered repeated traumas in the form of war, terrorism, military defeat, financial crisis, and stolen elections, the effect of which has been to take Madisonian self-disintegration and render it even more debilitating. “Difficulties in self-regulation” are what happens after decades of corruption and gridlock. Problems with “self-esteem maintenance” lead to an obsession with making America great again. “Lower tolerance levels” give rise to fears of alien hordes overrunning the border. “Phobias regarding the external world” are another term for mass paranoia about Russian agents lurking behind every bush and beneath every bed.
The upshot is a country that is lost, disoriented, and unable to tell where reality begins and fantasy leaves off. When the Washington Post recently reported that Russia is working behind the scenes to boost the Sanders campaign, a sensible person would have demanded to see the evidence. But not Bernie. To the contrary, he snapped to attention even though there was no evidence to be had and denounced Putin as an “autocratic thug” who should “stay out of American elections.”
Similarly, when CBS News asked Biden why he was doing so poorly, he replied that it’s because “the Russians don’t want me to be the nominee … they like Bernie.” When a reporter asked Pete Buttigieg what the Russias were looking to accomplish in the 2020 election, he explained with equal confidence: they “want chaos.”
They can’t process information concerning what Russia is really up to and therefore make up horror stories to scare themselves in the dark. Instead of exposing a petty imperialist like Jeff Bezos, the Washington Post’s owner, they allow themselves to be manipulated.
The upshot is a democracy that is too weak and fragmented to govern itself effectively. The big question is how to overcome Madisonian self-division so as to render democracy coherent and whole. But that’s a subject for another essay.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 03/03/2020 – 21:25 - "Ground Zero For Trade" – Port Of Long Beach Warns Of Shipping Slump From China
“Ground Zero For Trade” – Port Of Long Beach Warns Of Shipping Slump From China
Investors are grossly underestimating the potential economic impact of Covid-19 as the first signs of China’s supply chain meltdown are now washing ashore on US West Coast ports.
The Port of Long Beach, the second-largest containerized port in the US, has had two top officials warn in the last several weeks of chilling effects of supply chain disruptions from China.
Last week, the Deputy Executive Director of Administration and Operations for the Port of Long Beach Noel Hacegaba warned China’s economic paralysis led to the increase of blank sails between China and the US. He said port activity plunged in January and February, with expected weakness to continue through March.
Hacegaba said the slowdown at Long Beach is starting to hit the local economy around the port. He said it could only be a matter of time before it triggers a broader slowdown in the region, and even maybe in the overall US economy.
As we’ve noted in many pieces of creaking global supply chains fast emerging in China and spreading outwards, Deutsche Bank’s senior European economist Clemente Delucia last month pointed out in a report titled “The impact of the coronavirus: A supply-chain analysis” that the US is overly exposed to a crashing China economy.
As for the second Long Beach official, Bloomberg quoted Mario Cordero, executive director of the port, who said cargo volumes are expected to slump 9% YoY in February due to declining shipments from China.
Cordero said February’s YoY loss is nearly double of 2019’s decline of 5.4%, which has already resulted in a 50% reduction in labor at the port. He said the East Asia shipping route accounts for 90% of shipments through the port.
“The port of Long Beach is ground zero for trade,” warns Cordero. “There was uncertainty with the trade war, but the coronavirus has taken it to chaotic.”
Downward pressure from supply chain disruptions in China has now spilled over into the rest of the world. The transmission mechanism to the US is West Coast ports. The port Long Beach handles $200 billion in trade annually and supports 2.6 million trade-related jobs across the country, including almost 600,000 in Southern California.
As for other West Coast ports, reports of a containerized volume declines from China are inevitable. These ports are a critical artery of the US economy’s transportation infrastructure and essential for the flow of imports and exports, representing about 12.5% of US GDP.
A slowdown of containerized volume at Long Beach and other West Coast ports could suggest a broader economic downturn is ahead for the US economy.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 03/03/2020 – 21:05 - China Composite PMI Crashes To Record Lows As Services Economy Implodes
China Composite PMI Crashes To Record Lows As Services Economy Implodes
Stagnating consumption amid the coronavirus epidemic has had a great impact on China’s service sector in February, as one would expect.
February PMI data signalled the first reduction in business activity across China’s service sector on record due to restrictions implemented to contain the recent coronavirus outbreak. Firms across all sectors reported on the damaging effect that the virus was having on the economy via company closures and travel restrictions, with total new orders also falling at a record pace. Restrictions around travel also impacted firms’ ability to source workers, leading a renewed fall in staff numbers. Consequently, backlogs of work rose at a substantial pace.
Commenting on the China General Services and Composite PMI data, Dr. Zhengsheng Zhong, Chairman and Chief Economist at CEBM Group said:
“The Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index fell to 26.5 in February, about half the reading of the previous month, marking its first drop into contractionary territory since the survey launched in November 2005. Stagnating consumption amid the coronavirus epidemic has had a great impact on the service sector.
1) Demand for services shrank sharply. Both the gauges for total new business and new export business dropped to their lowest levels on record.
2) It was difficult for service providers to recruit workers, and backlogs of work climbed. The drop in the employment gauge was relatively small, but its February reading marked the lowest point on record. The measure for outstanding orders surged to a record high. Supply capacity across the service sector was insufficient amid restrictions on the movement of people.
3) The measure for input costs dropped at a steeper rate than that for prices companies charged customers, because of a sharp decline in supply capacity.
4) Business confidence also fell to a record low. Although policies have been introduced to provide tax and financing support for industries and small businesses heavily impacted by the epidemic, service companies were still concerned about uncertainties resulting from the epidemic.
In sum, Goldman concludes that the Caixin and NBS PMI surveys suggest activity growth in February was extremely weak. We expect service activity to partially recover in March, but in absolute level, it might take longer for services activities to normalize than manufacturing activities.
Additionally, the Composite Output Index signaled the sharpest decline in total Chinese business activity on record in February, as company closures and travel restrictions were put in place due to the coronavirus outbreak.
“The Caixin China Composite Output Index dropped to 27.5 in February from 51.9 in the previous month. While the gauges for new orders, new export orders and employment all weakened to their lowest levels on record, the gauge for backlogs of work rose to a record high. The decline in input costs was greater than that in output prices because upstream industries’ supply capacity was less affected.
“The coronavirus epidemic has obviously impacted China’s economy. It is necessary to pay attention to the divergence of business sentiment between the manufacturing and the service sectors. While recent supportive policies for manufacturing, small businesses and industries heavily affected by the epidemic have had a more obvious effect on the manufacturing sector, it is more difficult for service companies to make up their cash flow losses.“
And as China’s Composite PMI collapses, US and Japan are also in contraction with Europe – for now – somehow managing to cling to expansion…
But the funniest thing of all is the fact that Chinese stocks are dramatically outperfoming US and European since the start of the crisis…
Thanks National Team for making it all seem awesome!
Tyler Durden
Tue, 03/03/2020 – 20:57 - School In Brooklyn Hands Out "Drag Queen In Training" Stickers To 4-Year-Old
School In Brooklyn Hands Out “Drag Queen In Training” Stickers To 4-Year-Old
Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,
A school in Brooklyn reportedly handed out stickers to 4-year-old children during a ‘drag queen story time’ event that said “drag queen in training.”
According to Twitter user @beyondreasdoubt, the stickers were handed out by the unnamed private school during a “family day” that included the appearance of drag queens.
Private school in Brooklyn had family day today with drag queen story time and they gave these out to 4 year olds pic.twitter.com/OYL5Kcb6yy
— LB (@beyondreasdoubt) March 1, 2020
While leftists continue to deny that ‘drag queen story time’ is sexual in nature, despite the very performative nature of drag queens being similar to burlesque dancers, examples proving it is sexual continue to emerge.
As we highlighted yesterday, a video clip out of the UK showed a drag queen teaching toddlers how to twerk, a sexual dance where the participant repeatedly gyrates their butt in the air.
Drag queen teaches toddlers how to twerk. Completely normal. pic.twitter.com/9wMvTNjlN6
— Paul Joseph Watson (@PrisonPlanet) March 1, 2020
As we highlighted last week, many drag queens have engaged in sexually explicit behavior, including one called ‘Flowjob’ who visited a primary school in Scotland after posting pictures of himself on Twitter using a dildo and a ball gag.
A separate video that caused controversy last week also showed a drag queen dancing suggestively in front of a little girl while adults in the room cheered and applauded.
Here’s a drag queen dancing suggestively for a young girl while the adults look on and cheer
— Matt Walsh (@MattWalshBlog) February 28, 2020
Last year during a speech in front of the Lafayette Library Board of Control in Louisiana, drag queen Dylan Pontiff candidly admitted the true purpose of drag queen story time.
“This is going to be the grooming of the next generation,” he said.
An admitted pedophile and convicted child porn peddler also wrote an article in which he describes ‘Desmond is Amazing’ – the 12-year-old drag queen kid – as “hot”.
Reacting to concerns over Desmond’s performance at a gay night club in New York where attendees threw money at the child, his mother defended the decision, telling an Australian TV show, “I don’t understand what the controversy is.”
Desmond was previously involved in ‘drag queen story time’ – in which drag queens visit schools and libraries across America to read to children.
One of the participants at a drag queen story time event in Houston, 32-year-old Albert Garza, later turned out to be a registered sex offender who was convicted of assaulting an eight-year-old boy in 2008.
* * *
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Tyler Durden
Tue, 03/03/2020 – 20:45 - Japanese Official Says Olympics Can Be Postponed As Virus Fears Surge
Japanese Official Says Olympics Can Be Postponed As Virus Fears Surge
A week after Japan started canceling sport and cultural events amid the broadening of the Covid-19 outbreak, Seiko Hashitomo, Japan’s Olympic minister, raised the very real prospect of postponing The Olympic Games.
With deaths and cases soaring in Japan (now at almost 300 cases – ex Diamond Princess – and 12 deaths, though the numbers are widely questioned), Fox News reports that Hashimoto told the upper house of parliament:
“The IOC has the right to cancel the Games only if they are not held during 2020,” she
“This can be interpreted to mean the games can be postponed as long as they are held during the calendar year.”
Asked whether she believed the Games would be held if the coronavirus outbreak worsened, she replied:
“We are making the utmost effort so that we don’t have to face that situation.”
Notably, Japan’s Olympic Minister’s position is at odds with International Olympic Committee (IOC) member Dick Pound, who told AP News last Wednesday that the Games would most likely be canceled, rather than postponed if the outbreak continued to worsen in the months ahead.
Pound said there’s a three-month window to decide the fate of the Games:
“You could certainly go to two months out if you had to,” he said, which would mean the decision would come around late May.
“A lot of things have to start happening. You’ve got to start ramping up your security, your food, the Olympic Village, the hotels, the media folks will be in there building their studios.”
He noted that if the virus outbreak continued to deteriorate, then “you’re probably looking at a cancellation.”
“This is the new war, and you have to face it. In and around that time, I’d say folks are going to have to ask: ‘Is this under sufficient control that we can be confident about going to Tokyo, or not?'” he said.
He added:
“You just don’t postpone something on the size and scale of the Olympics. There are so many moving parts, so many countries and different seasons, and competitive seasons, and television seasons. You can’t just say, we’ll do it in October.”
Pound said, moving the Games to another city is highly unlikely.
“To move the place is difficult because there are few places in the world that could think of gearing up facilities in that short time to put something on,” he said.
Since 1896, the Olympics have only been canceled during wartime. And in 1976, 1980 and 1984 faced boycotts.
The longer the outbreak continues, the more uncertainty it would create for Olympic organizers. All eyes on May.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 03/03/2020 – 20:25 - There Are Now Over 7,000 Cryptocurrency ATMs Worldwide
There Are Now Over 7,000 Cryptocurrency ATMs Worldwide
Authored by Benjamin Pirus via CoinTelegraph.com,
The number of crypto ATMs across the globe has grown to over 7,000, with machines in 75 countries.
image courtesy of CoinTelegraph
At press time, CoinATMRadar listed 7,014 cryptocurrency ATMs in existence. This number also includes machines hosting digital currencies other than Bitcoin (BTC), including assets such as Bitcoin Cash (BCH), Ether (ETH), Dash (DASH) and Litecoin (LTC).
Crypto ATMs have come a long way
The world saw its first Bitcoin ATM in 2013, when a company called Robocoin placed a machine in a Vancouver coffee shop. Allowing customers to trade Bitcoin for cash, and vice versa, the machine saw $10,000 in BTC transacted on its launch day.
At present, 42 different manufacturers are responsible for the 7,000 global crypto ATMs.
Only two locations host Robocoin ATMs, CoinATMRadar data showed. Genesis Coin sits in the lead with machines in 2,348 locations.
Digital asset ATMs keep coming
The world now sees 11.7 new crypto ATMs installed per day, according to CoinATMRadar’s data from the past seven days.
Last fall, Bitcoin ATM company Bitstop teamed up with massive United States-based mall operator Simon Malls, spurring the installation of five machines in five separate malls run by the operator.
Florida’s Miami International Airport also received a Bitcoin ATM from Bitstop in the latter half of 2019.
Crypto ATMs only recently surpassed the 6,000 landmark in November 2019, showing a growing public demand for cryptocurrency availability. This type of data shows digital asset adoption and presence continues waging forward, one step at a time.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 03/03/2020 – 20:05 - Americans Will Soon See More US Military Members In Turbans, Beards & Hijabs
Americans Will Soon See More US Military Members In Turbans, Beards & Hijabs
Americans could soon begin seeing the unusual sight of US military service members walking around in Islamic hijab and other religious garb like turbans.
This after the United States Air Force dramatically changed its dress code policy last month to allow airmen to wear religious apparel so long as it presents an overall “professional and well-groomed appearance.”
US Air Force/Army photographs According to the newest update to the “Dress and Personal Appearance of Air Force Personnel” code, material used for religious headwear must fit the assigned uniform color, including camouflage.
Furthermore, beards will be allowed for religious reasons. Individual members must request permission for unshorn hair and facial hair, but upon exceeding two inches the regulations call for it to be “rolled and/or or tied” to meet the new standards.
US Air Force adherents to the Muslim and Sikh faiths are those most likely to take advantage of the loosening uniform changes — the latter which are now also authorized to wear under-turbans or patkas even in indoor areas (where headwear is typically removed).
Image via ACLU But a couple of military members identifying with “Norse Heathen faiths” have already stepped up to claim a religious exemption for their beards, as The Air Force Times explains:
Airman 1st Class Harpreetinder Singh Bajwa in June 2019 became the first active-duty Sikh airman allowed to wear a turban, beard and long hair, which Sikhs tie in a bun and then cover with the turban.
And at least two airmen who follow the Norse Heathen, or pagan, faiths have been granted permission to wear a beard.
The new uniform regulations note, however, that the individual’s chain of command can order the removal of religious headgear in various circumstances if it “furthers a compelling governmental interest.”
Image via ACLU/FOX News One example would be for exercises involving the necessity of donning a chemical/biological gas mask, which must fit snuggly over the head.
For years the US armed services resisted such religious accommodation, emphasizing standard “clean cut” uniformity and appearance across the board — but various “religious freedom” lawsuits were recently brought by the ACLU, which began to drive limited policy changes.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 03/03/2020 – 19:45 - Super Tuesday: Biden Wins VA, NC, AL, OK, TN, MN, AR, MA; Bernie Wins CA, VT, CO, UT; Bloomberg Wins American Samoa
Super Tuesday: Biden Wins VA, NC, AL, OK, TN, MN, AR, MA; Bernie Wins CA, VT, CO, UT; Bloomberg Wins American Samoa
Fourteen states, one territory and Democrats abroad are voting in the Super Tuesday presidential primaries, with 1,357 delegates to the Democratic National Convention up for grabs.
The big question remains – How will the coronavirus affect the turnout of millions of voters.
And the results begin:
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Biden wins Virginia, North Carolina, Alabama, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Minnesota, Arkansas, Massachusetts
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Bernie wins Vermont, Colorado, Utah, & California
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Bloomberg wins American Samoa?
The projected delegate count is:
The Trump campaign puts out a statement:
“The results only increase the likelihood that no candidate will have enough delegates for a first ballot victory at their convention, which only means more chaos! The media is hyperventilating about Joe Biden but everyone should remember that he is just as terrible a candidate right now as he was a few days ago.”
“Even if Bernie is not on November’s ballot, his big government socialist ideas will be because they have become mainstream in today’s Democrat Party. President Trump will wipe the floor with whatever Democrat is unlucky enough to be the nominee.”
Details:
VIRGINIA (99 delegates)
Winner: Joe Biden
The former VP got 66% of the black vote. Bloomberg was a distant third which is a major blow given the time and effort he focused in that state.
VERMONT (16 delegates)
Winner: Bernie Sanders
100% expected to clinch his home state. Mike Bloomberg in 4th behind Warren
NORTH CAROLINA (110 delegates)
Winner: Joe Biden
NBC’s Kornacki showing exit polls showing “a landslide” for Joe Biden in North Carolina. He’s crushing among African Americans and winning by double digits among white voters too.
AMERICAN SAMOA (6 delegates)
Winner: Mike Bloomberg
“A decisive victory, we are led to believe, over Tulsi Gabbard…” says MSNBC’s Brian Williams on Bloomberg’s win in American Samoa.
ALABAMA (52 delegates)
Winner: Joe Biden
Exit polls again showing huge support among African Americans powering Biden to a big win in Alabama, per MSNBC.
OKLAHOMA (37 delegates)
Winner: Joe Biden
Fox is calling it for Joe – With 413 of 1,948 precincts reporting, Biden 32%, Sanders 23%, Bloomberg 17%, Warren 14%, Gabbard 2%.
COLORADO (67 delegates)
Winner: Bernie Sanders
NBC project Bloomberg finishing second in Colorado.
TENNESSEE (64 delegates)
Winner: Joe Biden
MINNESOTA (75 delegates)
Winner: Joe Biden
Biden winning Minnesota is first genuine whoa of the night, apparently after he was endorsed by Amy Klobuchar. Bernie Sanders carried the state in 2016.
ARKANSAS (31 delegates)
Winner: Joe Biden
UTAH (29 delegates)
Winner: Bernie Sanders
Fox projects Sanders as the winner, Biden is 4th.
MASSACHUSETTS (91 delegates)
Winner: Joe Biden
“They don’t call it Super Tuesday for nothing,” Biden says. Warren finishes 3rd in her home state.
CALIFORNIA (415 delegates)
Winner: Bernie Sanders
Worth noting the significance of AP feeling confident enough to call Sanders winning California, the state with the largest number of delegates, immediately after polls closed. Sanders is polling 12 points ahead of Biden in California, according to Real Clear Politics average of polls.
Developing…
By the way, Donald Trump has a big lead in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. With 1,276 bound delegates needed to win, Trump has 548 delegates right now, versus former Massachusetts Gov. William Weld, with 1.
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Biden is screaming ahead of Bernie in the prediction markets…
The market is bid on the back of Biden’s gains for now…
When asked if Mike Bloomberg will drop out tonight, Bloomberg Campaign Manager Kevin Sheekey says, “absolutely not.” President Trump has other ideas..
The biggest loser tonight, by far, is Mini Mike Bloomberg. His “political” consultants took him for a ride. $700 million washed down the drain, and he got nothing for it but the nickname Mini Mike, and the complete destruction of his reputation. Way to go Mike!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 4, 2020
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Hillary Clinton tells NPR she doesn’t plan to endorse anyone.
“I am going to say the same thing I’ve been saying from the beginning of this vigorous primary contest: I hope the voters will pick the person that is most able to beat Donald Trump in the electoral college. At the end of the day, that is all that matters.”
It appears The DNC have pulled out all the dirty tricks to defeat Bernie…
@BernieSanders got BURIED on the #Californiaprimary2020 I almost didn’t think they even put him on there! #FeelTheBern2020 pic.twitter.com/pCWj0P5EP2
— Dj Saint Julian (@DjSaintJulian) March 4, 2020
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But, Sanders strikes a defiant tone.
“Tonight I can tell you with absolute confidence we are going to win the Democratic nomination.”
Trump tweets Warren was the loser of the night, other than Bloomberg, he says…
Elizabeth “Pocahontas” Warren, other than Mini Mike, was the loser of the night. She didn’t even come close to winning her home state of Massachusetts. Well, now she can just sit back with her husband and have a nice cold beer!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 4, 2020
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Lots more to come.
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MAINE (24 delegates): Polls close at 8 p.m.
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TEXAS (228 delegates): Polls close at 8 p.m.
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DEMOCRATS ABROAD (13 delegates): Voting continues through March 10.
* * *
The Democratic presidential contenders are poised to face off on Tuesday in one of the most consequential contests of the primary race so far, with 14 states set to vote and 1,300 delegates up for grabs.
As The Hill reports, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) heads into the contests as the front-runner after wins in New Hampshire and Nevada, as well as a virtual tie in Iowa, but former Vice President Joe Biden got a major boost after decisively winning South Carolina.
However, it appears the money is piling into Biden as prediction markets now have him at 54% chance of getting the nomination (vs Bernie, who has plunged to 40%)…
Super Tuesday will also mark the debut of former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg on the ballot. He will join a race that has significantly winnowed over the past three days with Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and billionaire Tom Steyer all dropping out.
The Primary Voters are considerably more diverse than recent primaries. Roughly four in 10 voters in today’s Democratic presidential primaries are people of color, according to the NBC News Exit Poll conducted in 12 of the 14 Super Tuesday states but today’s voters are on the older side – 64% of today’s Democratic voters are 45 or over, including the 29% of voters who are age 65 or over.
Here are the most crucial states to watch out for on Tuesday, according to The Hill:
California
California is the biggest prize of the evening, with 415 delegates up for grabs.
Sanders is currently the clear favorite to win the Golden State, but Biden has an opportunity to put a dent in his support. The RealClearPolitics average from the Democratic primary’s California polls shows Sanders with a nearly 17 point lead over his rivals, but Biden’s support has ticked up in a few recent polls. A CBS News/YouGov poll released Monday showed Sanders with 31 percent support in the state and Biden at 19 percent support, with Warren at 18 percent. Biden also stands to benefit in the state if he receives the support of former Buttigieg and Klobuchar voters. That would give him a better chance of reaching the 15 percent viability threshold in the state, providing him with a share of the delegates even if he does not win the state as a whole. “We’re no longer dividing the pot between four, five or six people. We’re dividing it between three people,” said Kelly Dietrich, the founder and head of the National Democratic Training Committee, which trains Democrats to run for public office. However, it still remains to be seen what influence Bloomberg will have in the state where he’s spent $36 million on advertising alone. “I think he’s going to have trouble competing in California,” Democratic strategist Brad Bannon said. “The fact that Joe Biden is a stronger candidate than he was three days ago hurts Bloomberg, who is also in the moderate lane.” “Part of Bloomberg’s vote strategy was associated with [Biden’s] weakness, and Biden is now a stronger candidate,” he said.
Texas
The Lone Star State has the second-most delegates up for grabs, at 228. Sanders is leading in the state, but by a much narrower gap than in California.
The RealClearPolitics polling average in Texas’s Democratic primary puts Sanders six points ahead of Biden. Sanders is relying on his strong support among the Latino community in the state after he was propelled to victory in Nevada thanks in large part to Hispanic voters. A poll conducted by the firm Latino Decisions for Univision and the University of Houston’s Center for Mexican American Studies, shows Sanders polling at 31 percent support among Texas Hispanics, while Bloomberg and Biden trailed at 23 and 19 percent, respectively. The poll was released before South Carolina’s primary. Moe Vela, a Democratic strategist and White House adviser in the Clinton and Obama administrations, said Biden will need to improve his standing among the Hispanic community in order to perform well in states like Texas. “As much credit as you have to give Bernie Sanders, I also have to say the vice president’s campaign needs to get their act together when it comes to the Latino electorate,” Vella, who sits on the board of Transparent Business, told The Hill.
Massachusetts
The Bay State could prove to be a death knell for Warren’s campaign if she does not perform well.
Despite her high name recognition and endorsements from some of the state’s progressive lawmakers, including Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) and Rep. Joe Kennedy (D-Mass.), recent polling shows Warren slipping in her home state. Suffolk University/Boston Globe/WBZ-TV poll released on Saturday shows Warren’s fellow New Englander Sanders leading with 24 percent support in the state, while she trailed at 22 percent, within the survey’s 4.4-percentage point margin of error. A WBUR survey released earlier last week showed an even wider gap, with Sanders at 25 percent support and Warren at 17 percent support. That poll’s margin of error was plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Warren’s performance in New Hampshire could offer some insight into how well she will perform in Massachusetts. The Granite State is famous for choosing New England candidates, voting for Sanders in 2016 and 2020. Warren, by contrast, came in fourth in New Hampshire, behind Midwesterners Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar. “I think she definitely has to win Massachusetts tomorrow, in part to go out to the next wave of states,” Bannon said. [How] can you make a plea for votes there when you can’t win your own state?”
Virginia
Virginia has the fourth largest share of delegates of the Super Tuesday contests and Bloomberg has paid close attention to the state.
Bloomberg has visited Virginia seven times, more than any other Super Tuesday state. The campaign has eight offices across the commonwealth, including in the Republican-leaning strongholds of Danville and Roanoke. More than 80 Bloomberg staffers are dispersed throughout Virginia. His campaign cites the need to keep the state blue after the legislature flipped to Democrats in 2019 and points to his heavy investment in advocating for stronger gun control measures in Virginia. The issue has played a central role in the state’s political discourse since the 2007 Virginia Tech shooting. “Virginia is a microcosm of one part of the future of the party, you know the moderate, progressive and suburban voters,” senior Bloomberg adviser Tim O’Brien told The Hill. Bloomberg himself touted his own work in the state’s 2019 elections during a get-out-the-vote event in McLean on Saturday. “It [was] so important to help flip the Virginia legislature blue this fall, and I was glad to help get it done,” Bloomberg said to a boisterous crowd. However, a number of recent polls show Bloomberg trailing Sanders and Biden in the state. Biden, in particular, could hurt Bloomberg’s chances in the state after a big win in South Carolina.Biden was also endorsed by a number of notable Democratic figures in Virginia recently. Former Gov. Terry McAuliffe, Sen. Tim Kaine, Rep. Elaine Luria, and Rep. Bobby Scott were all on hand for a Biden rally in Norfolk on Sunday evening where the former vice president received a rock star-like reception.
Alabama
African American voters make up a large share of the Democratic vote in Alabama, making the state critical for candidates looking to appeal to a voting group that is widely considered the backbone of the Democratic Party.
Five Thirty-Eight’s forecast shows Biden with a 61 percent chance of winning the state. The former vice president stands to perform well with African American voters after an overwhelming win in South Carolina. Biden received a warm welcome in Selma on Sunday at an event marking the anniversary of the civil rights march. “The moderate African Americans tend to be the majority of the Democratic Party, or at least a large part,” Democratic strategist Jamal Simmons told The Hill. “Older African Americans who tend to be the leadership of these big parties in the states like Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, they tend to be very pragmatic, if not more moderate. So that means they’re more likely to be Joe Biden voters.” While Sanders has relied on younger voters of color for support, he and Biden appeared to split the black youth vote in South Carolina, which might not bode well for the progressive senator in Alabama. “Bernie didn’t have his over performance with young African-Americans that he had in other places,” Simmons said, referring to South Carolina.
Who would Trump prefer? For now, prediction markets appear confident that whoever it is, Trump will win…
Tyler Durden
Tue, 03/03/2020 – 19:43 -
- The Places In America With The Best (And Worst) Hospitals
The Places In America With The Best (And Worst) Hospitals
Medical outcomes and the quality of healthcare are incredibly difficult to measure in America.
Patients often see many different doctors and hospitals and each of them administering small parts of the patient care. Getting the data from these disparate providers and assessing their relation to patient outcomes is next to impossible. Not only that, but how do you measure patient outcomes exactly? If a patient dies, is it because they got bad care or because they were extremely sick.
Amidst this chaos, there is one data source attempting to rate the quality of healthcare, particularly in hospitals — Medicare. Medicare, for those who are not familiar, is the federally funded insurance organization for senior citizens. Because virtually all spending and treatment for this population flows through Medicare, it’s in a unique position to measure hospital quality.
Starting April 2015, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS.gov) started releasing hospital quality rankings. This data was most recently updated in January 2020. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, CMS.gov, is part of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS.gov).
Along with Priceonomics customer PsyDPrograms.org, we decided to analyze this Medicare hospital quality data to see the states and cities with the best (and worst) hospitals in America.
On the state level, Wisconsin, South Dakota and Utah have the best hospitals on average while Washington DC, New York, and Nevada have the worst-rated ones. Among the major cities we looked at Cincinnati, Austin and Indianapolis ranked as having the best hospitals, while Las Vegas, Brooklyn, and Washington DC ranked as having the worst.
* * *
Before diving into the data, it’s worth spending a moment on the methodology.
For this analysis we looked at the CMS “Overall Hospital Quality Star Ranking” made most recently available in January 2020. In this data set, 3,698 hospitals were scored on a rating from 1 to 5 stars, with 5 stars being the best.
The CMS outlines their methodology for creating and the scoring hospitals here, which includes 57 different measures in categories such as patient experience, mortality, and safety of care. While this data is for Medicare and Medicaid patients, these hospitals tend to service patients of all age groups and income levels.
To begin, let’s look at which states have the highest rated hospitals on average according to the CMS. We group all hospitals by state and then calculate the average among hospitals that were given a star rating by the CMS. Below are all 50 states plus Washington, DC, ranked from states with the highest score to the lowest:
Wisconsin hospitals rank as the top in the country, with a 3.9 average quality score. Part of the reason for the state’s success is that it has a high number of Mayo Clinic hospitals in the state, all of which got over 5 stars. In South Dakota the Avera hospital network has five hospitals attaining the 5 star ranking.
Washington DC ranks as the area with the worst rated hospitals with a 1.4 star rating on average. While better rated hospitals are available in nearby Maryland and Virginia, DC hospitals have been criticized for failing at patient safety and maternal health. New York has the second worst CMS hospital ratings, despite spending more than any other state on healthcare.
Next, let’s extend this analysis to determine which cities have the best and worst rated hospitals according to the CMS. The chart below shows the average star quality in cities with at least 7 rated hospitals. Cities are ranked from highest average score to lowest:
Cincinnati ranks as the city with the highest rated hospitals in the United States, just beating out Austin and Indianapolis. Each of the top cities have mostly 5 and 4 star hospitals. On the other end of the spectrum, Las Vegas ranks as the the city with the worst rated hospitals in the country. Nearly every hospital in Las Vegas attains a 1-star rating, the lowest score given by the CMS. Part of this low score can be attributed to a shortage of doctors in the state of Nevada.
Lastly, is there any difference in quality score based on who owns the hospital? Do non-profits provide better quality of care over for-profits? Or are government organizations more effective? The chart below shows the average rating by ownership type:
By a considerable margin, physician-owned properties have the highest rating with a 3.9 average quality score. While there were only 34 of these types of properties rated by the CMS (approximately 1% of rated hospitals), it may be worth exploring if physician-owned hospitals have the promise to deliver better healthcare. State and Federal hospitals rank last when it comes to quality, just beating out proprietary (private hospitals).
* * *
The CMS hospital data reveals there are huge disparities in the quality of care across America. For example, if you live in Las Vegas, almost every single hospital available is rated one-star. Other places like Cincinnati or Austin are virtually all four or five-star hospitals. While measuring health care quality is a challenging effort, the CMS data is a great starting point for finding out which hospitals are offering quality care and which ones are not. As the old adage goes, you can’t improve what you don’t measure.
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If you’re a company that wants to work with Priceonomics to turn your data into great stories, learn more about the Priceonomics Data Studio.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 03/03/2020 – 19:25 - "It's Life Or Death For Us" – Maryland's Seafood Industry In Crisis Over H-2B Visa Program Cap
“It’s Life Or Death For Us” – Maryland’s Seafood Industry In Crisis Over H-2B Visa Program Cap
Acting Homeland Security Secretary Chad Wolf said last week that there’s no decision yet to raise the cap on the H-2B visa program for seasonal workers, and this could complicate things for Maryland’s seafood industry heading into crab season.
There are at least nine crab picking houses scattered in Dorchester County, Maryland, which produce about 95% of the state’s crab meat. Many operators are now warning the state government that they will have to scale back operations without an ample supply of seasonal workers from the H-2B visa program, reported the Maryland Department of Agriculture.
“Blue crabs are an integral part of our state’s heritage and our economy,” said Secretary of Agriculture Joe Bartenfelder. “The world-class crabmeat produced by Maryland processors relies heavily on the availability of seasonal labor via the H-2B visa program. This survey reinforces what we have learned in previous years: a lack of reliable access to H-2B workers poses a major threat to the future of this iconic industry.”
Many of these crab picking businesses are family-owned and operated and are now on the brink of shuttering their doors without the proper access to cheap labor.
“It’s life or death for us,” said Bryan Hall, with W Hall & Son Hand Picked.
CBS Baltimore said seafood operators along the Chesapeake Bay heavily rely on the temporary work visa program to supply cheap labor.
“Right now, there are six of us in danger of not opening up at all this year,” said John Walker, with Phillips AE Sons.
Walker said after a century in business, there’s the uncertainty that operations in 2020 could remain closed as labor shortages persist.
“If we do not get these pickers, we’re closed,” Walker said.
The Department of Agriculture warned that if additional help is not seen on the Chesapeake Bay during the start of the crab season, the industry could lose as much as $150 million.
“If you take 2.54 American jobs created by each one of these folks that come here, we’re looking at over 1,000 jobs, American jobs, that are dependent on these visas,” said Jack Brooks, with the Chesapeake Bay Seafood Foundation.
Crab season starts on April 1, and if cheap labor isn’t supplied to crab pickers via the H-2B program in the next couple of weeks, it could turn out to be a disastrous year for Maryland’s beloved seafood industry.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 03/03/2020 – 19:05 - Majority Of Coronavirus Deaths Reported Outside China For First Time Since Outbreak Began: Live Updates
Majority Of Coronavirus Deaths Reported Outside China For First Time Since Outbreak Began: Live Updates
Summary:
- US virus death toll hits 9
- 2nd case confirmed in NY
- Oregon officials warn up to 500 cases may be in state already
- US now screening everyone aboard flights from SK and Italy
- Spain reports 1st death
- 1st case confirmed in North Carolina
- Westchester Temple closes
- Italy mulls cancelling all sporting events for a month
- 2nd NY case commuted to Manhattan, traveled to Miami
- Chile, Argentina report first cases
- Germany reports 46 new cases
- 2nd case confirmed in New Hampshire
- Santa Clara confirms 11th case
- 1st case reported in Berkeley
- Third case possibly identified in Fla.
- Stocks surge, then fade, after surprise 50 bp rate cut
- 4th person dies in France
- Fauci says we should know soon whether Gilead’s vaccine will work
- Son of Westchester corona case attended NYC school that closed
- Pope tests negative for coronavirus
- NYC high school closes over ‘suspected case of coronavirus’
- Global case total passes 91,000
- UK case total hits 51
- US case total tops 100 across 15 states (including evacuees)
- South Korea case total passes 5,000; death toll hits 34
- Italian death toll surpasses Iran
- Iran confirmed cases pass 2,000, 70+ dead
- Head of European football says Euro 2020 will go on
- 9 new cases confirmed in Japan
* * *
Update (19305ET): Here are a few late-breaking virus stories we’d like to add before we starting winding down for the day.
Alphabet became the latest tech giant to cancel its developer conference (following Facebook’s lead): the annual Google I/O event has been cancelled over coronavirus fears.
Meanwhile, the Italian government is about to release a series of recommendations to try to halt the coronavirus outbreak, the Guardian reports.
The tips are contained in a document issued by the the country’s scientific committee that will be released within the next few hours. They include:
Social distancing: remaining away from crowded environments and maintaining a distance of two meters from other people; especially within enclosed spaces.
Greetings: avoiding kisses and hugs when greeting people.
Elderly population: people older than 75 years with underlying health conditions are advised to remain at home and avoid social events.
Moreover, the Juventus and Milan’s upcoming Italian Cup semi-final second leg match has been postponed. The match was meant to be held on Wednesday night and would have followed the 1-1 first-leg draw in Milan’s San Siro. The committee has called for all sporting events to be held behind closed doors.
The death toll from Covid-19 in Italy has risen to 79 and confirmed cases to 2.263, the emergency commissioner and civil protection chief Angelo Borrelli has said.
According to Reuters, Irish authorities have confirmed a second case of coronavirus, a woman in the the country’s east who just returned from Italy – yet another example of how the virus has spread from Italy all across Europe, as European bureaucrats have opted to leave their borders open.
“Today we are confirming that Ireland has diagnosed one new case of COVID-19. The case arises in a female in the east of the country and is associated with travel from Northern Italy,” Dr Tony Holohan, Chief Medical Officer with the Department of Health told a news briefing.
Earlier, Ford became the latest company to limit travel for employees after two in China caught the virus, per Reuters.
Meanwhile, Lyft CEO Brian Roberts told his audience at the KeyBanc Capital Markets 15th Annual Emerging Technology Summit in San Francisco that the outbreak had not yet impacted demand for Lyft’s ride-hailing services, per Reuters. The bulk of the company’s business is US focused.
Earlier we reported that deaths in Italy climbed to 79 on Tuesday as health officials reported 27 new deaths tied to the virus, surpassing the 77 on Iran’s official death toll.
The total number of cases in Europe’s worst-hit country climbed to 2,502 from 2,036 on Monday.
* * *
Update (1845ET): Santa Clara County reported 2 additional cases on Tuesday afternoon, increasing the number of cases in the county to 11, according to KTVU.
Santa Clara County announces 2 new cases of COVID-19 Total now 11. 3pm press cnference will be streamed live on KTVU App
Download the APP: https://t.co/CxvuMo9b2J
— KTVU (@KTVU) March 3, 2020
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Both of the new cases are still under investigation to determine the source of transmission, the health department said in a news release. Currently, of the total, only two have been determined to be transmited from person to person, four are travel-related; three are close contacts to known cases; and the two new cases remain under investigation, health officials said.
In other news, a Berkeley resident who recently returned from traveling in Europe has become the first confirmed patient in Berkeley.
JUST IN: First coronavirus case confirmed in Berkeley possibly linked to recent travel https://t.co/2YBDDkDeax pic.twitter.com/aqaOInAQst
— KTVU (@KTVU) March 3, 2020
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It sure has been an eventful 24 hours…
First cases of coronavirus in last 48 hours:
– Chile
– Argentina
– Liechtenstein
– Ukraine
– Gibraltar
– Morocco
– Senegal
– Tunisia
– Latvia
– Jordan
– Andorra
– Portugal
– Indonesia
– Saudi Arabia— Norbert Elekes (@NorbertElekes) March 3, 2020
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* * *
Update (1835ET): Germany has reported another 46 cases, increasing its total to 196.
JUST IN: Germany reports 46 new cases of coronavirus today, 196 cases in total.
Patients ranging from 2 to 69 years old.
— Norbert Elekes (@NorbertElekes) March 3, 2020
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How much more will it take before they stop jawboning and start spending?
Meanwhile, the US is tightening border controls.
PENCE SAYS WE ARE NOW SCREENING ALL TRAVELERS COMING TO U.S. ON DIRECT FLIGHTS FROM ITALY AND SOUTH KOREA
— FXHedge (@Fxhedgers) March 3, 2020
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* * *
Update (1810ET): As investors turn their attention to the 14 Super Tuesday primaries, with bulls everywhere pulling for a strong showing from Joe Biden, who appears to have prevailed over his challengers. For somebody who was considered the ‘presumptive’ nominee at the beginning of the contest, Biden almost didn’t make it, and if it wasn’t for Mike Bloomberg’s debate implosion, he would likely be where Bloomberg is now (except, without the limitless funds, Biden would be forced to concede a whole lot earlier).So let’s review: Around the world, about 40 deaths have been attributed to the virus in the past 24 hours outside mainland China, while only 31 deaths were reported in China during the same period, marking the first time that deaths ex-China surpassed deaths in mainland China, according to NBC News.
With three more deaths in Washington State confirmed on Tuesday, the US is stealing the spotlight from South Korea, which, thanks to its much smaller economy, doesn’t have the same kind of influence over global markets. Around the world, some 3,100 people have died from the virus since the outbreak began.
New Hampshire confirmed the most recent case at around 6 pm ET.
Almost equally alarming: The New Hampshire Department of Health and Human Services reported that the state’s first infected patient attended an invitation-only private event on Friday, Feb. 28, despite being told to remain in isolation. That patient was identified only as an employee of Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center. It’s unclear whether the second patient was exposed as a result.
For anybody in the US who hasn’t voted, the CDC has issued some tips for how to not catch the virus while voting.
Working at a polling station? Help reduce the risk of exposure to respiratory diseases, like #COVID19, by routinely cleaning and disinfecting frequently touched surfaces & voting associated electronics. Learn more: https://t.co/ZjeKiqous8. #SuperTuesday pic.twitter.com/P58uVQiyqo
— CDC (@CDCgov) March 3, 2020
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Here’s a map of US cases so far, courtesy of NBC News:
* * *
Update (1740ET): The confirmation that a Westchester lawyer from New Rochelle who works at an office near Grand Central is New York’s second coronavirus case has set off a wave of quarantines, including a school where the infected is part of the ‘feeder network’ – he doesn’t even have a kid currently going there.
BREAKING – New Rochelle synagogue ordered to halt services and approx 600 people told ordered to quarantine due to potential #COVID19 #NovelCoronavirus exposure. pic.twitter.com/9PYvfmgpEt
— Tony Aiello (@AielloTV) March 3, 2020
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Now, Temple Young Israel in New Rochelle is closing temporarily, and guests who attended two events at the temple late last month have been asked to self-quarantine.
The health department of Westchester County, New York, ordered Temple Young Israel in New Rochelle to halt all services immediately due to potential coronavirus exposure connected to a member of the congregation. The congregant, an attorney who tested positive for the virus Tuesday, was reported in serious condition at New York Presbyterian Hospital.
Congregants who attended services on Feb. 22 and a funeral and a bat mitzvah on Feb. 23 must self-quarantine until at least March 8, Westchester health officials said. Those who don’t comply will be required to do so, officials said.
The synagogue has 380 member families, according to its website.Oh, and just as we suggested earlier, it’s believed that the patient did travel on Metro North, the most obvious public-transit route between his home and office, according to the New York Post.
The patient has two kids, one who attends the high school in Riverdale, and the other who attends college in the city.
* * *
Update (1700ET): Most of the focus on Tuesday has lingered on Washington and New York State. But officials in Oregon are reportedly warning that there could be between 300 and 500 Oregonians who were unknowingly exposed to the virus, according to Dr. Dean Sidelinger, the state health officer and epidemiologist, the Oregonian reports.
The advance of coronavirus to a remote town more than 200 miles from Portland means the virus “is fairly widespread in our community.” On Monday, officials announced Oregon’s third presumptive coronavirus case. The person is a casino worker who attended a youth basketball game at a Umatilla County middle school.
Also, officials have confirmed that deceased patients No. 8 and No. 9 were both diagnosed with the virus postuhumously, helping to explain some of they mystery surrounding their cases. Two of the three deaths reported Tuesday died last week.
* * *
Update (1610ET): Some footage of President Trump from a press conference earlier in the day, where he said “anything can happen” with the virus, sounding slightly less dismissive of the risks.
Trump on people w/o health insurance w/ coronavirus: “They have a big problem & we’re going to look at the uninsured people that, you know, this came out as a surprise to all of us. It just happened. It shows what can happen in life … [we’re gonna] see if we can help them out” pic.twitter.com/nolTXDpdPU
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 3, 2020
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Meanwhile, for American stocks, it was a “not-so-super Tuesday” as the risk of a prolonged pandemic in the US and across the world appeared to climb.
Trump added during a brief meeting with reporters after the market closed that he felt the Fed wouldn’t do more and “that’s unfortunate”, he added that the economy is in “great shape” and added that one vaccine is heading to trials and other remedies are being tested – he even mentioned the possibility of a middle class tax cut.
* * *
Update (1535ET): A special committee guiding Italy’s virus response has reportedly recommended that the government force the cancellation of every sporting event in the country for a month, stopping football just weeks before Euro 2020.
Earlier, the organizers of Euro 2020 said the virus wouldn’t stop the tournament.
As the virus spreads across the US, one notable standout is Hawaii, which hasn’t confirmed a single case despite facing several scares early on. On Tuesday, local media reported that the annual Honolulu Festival has been cancelled over virus fears, according to Hawaii News Now.
Meanwhile, we’re hearing reports that the lawyer who is the second case of the virus in New York worked at a firm based in Grand Central, increasing the probability that he took public transit, like the Metro North commuter train on the New Haven line that passes through his home town of New Rochelle.
On Capitol Hill, an emergency funding bill to finance the fight against the coronavirus could be completed and ready for the signature of the US president Donald Trump by Friday evening, Senator Patrick Leahy said.
Mike Pence and Chuck Schumer met on Tuesday, and talks were reportedly productive, with a deal possible in the near future.
Algeria has confirmed three new cases, bringing the country’s total to eight, according to the nation’s health ministry.
Ireland has confirmed a second case on Tuesday; like the first, it was tied to travelers to Italy, something that’s becoming a theme as the virus spreads from Italy across the continent.
* * *
Update (1530ET): Officials have confirmed the first case of the virus in North Carolina, Reuters reports. This comes after state officials in Georgia, New Hampshire and Florida among others have confirmed their first cases as the virus nears the point of spreading to half of the 48 states in the Continental US (though, importantly, Hawaii has had some close calls).
Meanwhile, here’s a handy breakdown of the cases in Washington State, the hardest hit state so far.
All 27 cases are clustered in two counties considered to be ‘suburban Seattle’, making the Washington outbreak the largest concentration detected to date by the US public health system.
* * *
Update (1520ET): The WHO said during its Tuesday press conference that the death rate for Covid-19 is higher than the 2% previously believed.
“More people are susceptible to infection and some will suffer serious disease. Globally about 3.4 percent of COVID-19 cases have died,” he said. “By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1 percent of those infected.”
By comparison, the flu kills 0.1% of those infected. The WHO credited the “rapidly growing insight” into the virus thanks to the research that has been carried out since the outbreak began.
* * *
Update (1455ET): Reuters has confirmed two additional deaths in Washington State on top of the one reported earlier by the NYT.
- WASHINGTON STATE DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH REPORTS TOTAL NUMBER OF CONFIRMED CORONAVIRUS CASES NOW STANDS AT 27, INCLUDING 9 DEATHS, UP FROM 18 CASES AND 6 DEATHS ON MONDAY
As BNO pointed out, we were also initially confused about whether these were two additional deaths, or if there was an overlap with the case reported earlier by NYT.
Turns out, there wasn’t.
We weren’t sure if the 2nd death mentioned here was the death reported earlier today, but it turns out they are both in addition to it. So we now have 9 deaths in the U.S. https://t.co/AEbJ2zMHzz
— BNO Newsroom (@BNODesk) March 3, 2020
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In addition, there are now 27 confirmed cases in Washington alone, nearly double the number in the entire US (outside the evacuees) a week ago. The death toll in the US has climbed to 9, all in Washington State. At this rate, the state’s death toll is climbing faster than the 10-year yield is falling.
By BNO’s count, the US case total has climbed to 111.
Meanwhile, as more patients report being unable to receive coronavirus tests, or of being hit with a hefty medical bill after receiving a negative test, President Trump said Tuesday that he would look into getting insurance companies to cover coronavirus-related costs.
* * *
Update (1420ET): A seventh individual has died of the coronavirus in the suburban Seattle. This time, the case wasn’t identified until long after the patient died, according to the NYT. Since the individual died last week, they are technically the earliest known fatality from the infection.
The person was brought to Seattle’s Harborview Medical Center on Feb. 24 and died two days later, before the outbreak really hit the state.
A spokeswoman for the hospital said on Tuesday that test samples from the person, who was a resident of the same nursing home that has had a number of coronavirus cases and deaths, have tested positive for the virus.
“In coordination with Public Health, we have determined that some staff may have been exposed while working in an intensive care unit where the patient had been treated,” said Susan Gregg.
BREAKING: A 7th person with coronavirus has died in the Seattle area. This time, the infection wasn’t identified until well after the person’s death.
The death was 6 days ago at Harborview Medical Center. https://t.co/IvVpdiScaM
— Mike Baker (@ByMikeBaker) March 3, 2020
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The Dow is about to be down 1,000 on the day once again, despite the Fed’s emergency 60 bp rate cut.
In Iran, officials will release 54,000 inmates to curb the spread of the coronavirus in its prisons.
How could things get any worse? Maybe if officials confirm a slate of already-dead individuals actually died from the virus.
Elsewhere, officials in Spain reported the country’s first death, after reporting 129 cases earlier on Tuesday. Chile and Argentina have also reported their first cases as the virus spreads in Latin America. Reporters also confirmed that the 2nd case identified in NY state is an example of “community transmission”, having no obvious source of infection.
* * *
Update (1325ET): Following reports last night about a Miami woman who was denied proper testing despite suspicions she might be infected, state officials have identified a third coronavirus case in Florida, according to local media reports.
Mirroring the situation in the states, Boris Johnson has been accused of playing down the coronavirus emergency in the UK. Two hours after he delivered a speech claiming the government’s No. 1 priority is containing the virus, about which he said there’s no need to panic, the NHS declared the outbreak a “Level 4 incident”, its possible alert level.
In other news, Bloomberg reports that a Florida student whose classmates shook hands last Friday with the vice president has been quarantined after his mother came into contact with a coronavirus patient.
Put another way: BBG is essentially reporting that Pence shook hands with someone, who knows someone, who knows someone who interacted with a coronavirus patient. How did they even figure that out?
* * *
Update (1250ET): As we reported yesterday, the IMF and World Bank have apparently confirmed rumors that they will hold their annual meetings ‘virtually’, instead of holding the annual massive gatherings in Washington.
IMF, WORLD BANK EXPECTED TO ANNOUNCE SHORTLY THAT SPRING MEETINGS WILL BE HELD VIRTUALLY, NOT IN PERSON, DUE TO CORONAVIRUS – SOURCE
— FXHedge (@Fxhedgers) March 3, 2020
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* * *
Update (1155ET): Italian health officials have confirmed another rash of cases and deaths: The Italian death toll of patients who have tested positive for the virus has risen to 79 from 52, surpassing the ‘official’ death toll in Iran (though most suspect the real numbers are far higher in Iran).
Meanwhile, the total number of cases has climbed to 2,502, up from 2,036 late Monday.
- ITALIAN DEATH TOLL OF PATIENTS WHO TESTED POSITIVE FOR CORONAVIRUS RISES TO 79 FROM 52
- TOTAL NUMBER OF CASES IN ITALY RISES TO 2502 FROM 2036 ON MONDAY
Most of the cases have been diagnosed in Lombardy, a region in the north that’s been the hardest hit (it’s also a major contributor to Italian GDP).
* * *
Update (1035ET): The WHO is holding its daily press conference, though they’ve been thoroughly upstaged by the Fed:
CORONAVIRUS CONTINUES TO SPREAD RAPIDLY: The World Health Organization holds their daily news briefing on coronavirus. https://t.co/Heny51Q7cZ
— NowThis (@nowthisnews) March 3, 2020
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* * *
Update (1030ET): Some comments from Treasury Secretary Mnuchin during his testimony before the House:
- MNUCHIN SAYS NOT CONSIDERING CHINA TARIFF ROLLBACK AT THIS TIME
- MNUCHIN SAYS NOT ENOUGH INTEREST TO ISSUE 50 YR BOND
- MNUCHIN: ‘THERE WILL BE SOME ISSUES’ FOR U.S. GDP THIS YEAR DUE TO CORONAVIRUS
- MNUCHIN: CORONAVIRUS WILL BE WORSE THAN FLU
Some comments from Dr. Anthony Fauci are also hitting the tape:
- NIH OFFICIAL FAUCI SAYS WE SHOULD KNOW WITHIN SEVERAL MONTHS WHETHER OR NOT GILEAD’S ANTIVIRAL CORONAVIRUS TREATMENT WORKS, IMPLEMENTATION COULD BE IMMINENT AFTERWARD
- NIH OFFICIAL FAUCI SAYS IT WILL BE AT LEAST A YEAR OR A YEAR AND A HALF UNTIL A CORONAVIRUS VACCINE IS READY TO BE DEPLOYED
In other virus-related news, Al Jazeera reports that a fourth person in France has died from the virus. Yesterday, French officials confirmed a fourth death, before revising the death toll down to three blaming a reporting error. 6 new cases were confirmed earlier in Oman, while the Ayatollah urged Iranians to fight the virus’s spread by washing their hands.
“Don’t violate the recommendations and instructions of the responsible authorities in terms of prevention, in terms of keeping hands, face and living environment clean and not infecting these and preventing the infection of these,” he said. Khamenei also said the outbreak should not be overblown.
“The issue is an issue that will pass. It’s not something extraordinary,” he said. “I don’t want to minimize the issue but let’s not make it very big either.
Let’s hope the Iranians are developing a more elaborate containment strategy.
* * *
Update (1012ET): The Fed sucker-punched shortsellers in the face Tuesday morning with a “surprise” emergency 50 bp rate cut, acquiescing to President Trump’s demands after the president went on a tear bashing Powell during last night’s Trump rally in NC.
The news sent stocks AND gold higher. But amazingly, the rally in stocks is already starting to fade.
But…but…but we though the only reason stocks were selling off is because the G7 suggested there wouldn’t be any cuts, which has now been exposed as part of an elaborate head-fake by central bankers to prime markets for maximum impact.
And even after all that…clearly worries about a wealthy lawyer spreading the virus among the denizens of NYC’s white-shoe law firms and their clients is an image that traders can’t seem to escape.
Looks like we’re gonna need another rate cut, Jerry.
Before we go, we’d like to highlight some thoughts from WSJ editor Michael Derby.
So, is this the Powell Put?
— Michael S. Derby (@michaelsderby) March 3, 2020
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Given that we’re pretty likely to be testing the zero bound again, maybe even this year, I wonder if the Fed should have moved a little faster on the policy review. May need that new toolkit sooner than expected.
— Michael S. Derby (@michaelsderby) March 3, 2020
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The Fed launched the review back in November 2018, following the first bout of Q4 volatility.
And if ever there was a time for bold new thinking from the Fed, this is it. Because, as the market’s erratic response suggests, the same old policy prescription of rate cuts and QE isn’t going to cut it. Start buying stocks and doling out cash to the people like they did in Hong Kong, or log off.
* * *
Update (0950ET): Here are some more details from Cuomo’s presser, including announcing that the city is keeping two families in the Buffalo region ‘under observation’ and that the state legislature has approved a $40 million emergency aid package on Monday night.
Governor Cuomo said the news of the second New York patient should not be a cause for alarm, reiterating that health officials had expected that the disease would be found in multiple locations around the state and would be likely to spread.
“Yes, people are going to get infected,” the governor said, in an interview on Long Island News Radio, adding that “80 percent self-resolve,” referring to the estimated recovery rate for mild or asymptomatic cases.
Mr. Cuomo said that the new patient is hospitalized and that he works in Manhattan, and had an underlying respiratory illness. The governor, a Democrat, said the state is also monitoring two families in the Buffalo region who had recently traveled to Italy, one the centers of Europe’s outbreaks.
“The real issue is how many people will get seriously ill,” Mr. Cuomo said. “How many people, God forbid, could lose their lives.”
Acting on a proposal by Mr. Cuomo, the state legislature approved on Monday night a $40 million emergency aid package to help the state Department of Health hire additional staff and equipment to help track and fight the disease.
The NYT also reported that a high school in Westchester County had closed as a precautionary measure. The patient didn’t have any children at the school, but it said he’s a part of its feeder program. The patient is said to be a lawyer, and has been hospitalized at a hospital in Bronxville. He also reportedly recently visited Miami. The patient is said to have an “underlying respiratory illness” (he’s been transferred to New York-Presbyterian Hospital in Manhattan for maximal care). It’s unclear if he ever took public transportation.
* * *
Update (0920ET): In a statement, NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio revealed that the Westchester resident who became NY’s second coronavirus case was diagnosed in a city hospital. Their test was confirmed in a city lab during its first day of coronavirus operation.
Recent media updates also claimed that the Westchester man works in Manhattan.
statement from @NYCMayor on new coronavirus case, tested & confirmed in NYC lab pic.twitter.com/SCfS1o8gBM
— Ben Max (@TweetBenMax) March 3, 2020
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Additionally, Cuomo confirmed that the man recently traveled to Miami. Florida has confirmed more than 4 cases in different parts of the state. Later during the presser, Cuomo confirmed that the Riverdale school that closed was attended by the son of the Westchester patient, and that other schools might close as a precaution.
In addition to the Riverdale school where one of the patient’s children attended closing, the Westchester Day School, a private Jewish day school in Mamaroneck, has closed out of an “abundance of caution” because the still-unidentified patient is part of its feeder program.
The man was said to be a lawyer from New Rochelle, who is currently hospitalized at Lawrence Hospital in Bronxville.
We still haven’t learned the identity of the woman who tested positive after visiting Iran, it’s unclear if we’ll ever learn this patient’s name.
* * *
Update (0855ET): During this morning’s press conference, Gov. Cuomo announced that New York public health officials have confirmed the second case of the coronavirus in the state, this time in a man in his 50s from Westchester County.
Per the NYT, the patient was confirmed overnight via a state lab in Albany. Cuomo added that the two cases, which have no obvious connection to cases abroad, suggest that the virus may be “spreading in communities with no known connection to hot spots for the disease.”
Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo announced on Tuesday morning a second confirmed case of coronavirus in New York, a man in his 50s in Westchester County, just outside of New York City, suggesting that it was spreading in communities with no known connection to hot spots for the disease.
The patient, whose test was confirmed overnight by a state lab in Albany, had no direct connection with any known center of the contagion, which was first identified in China in late December.
On Sunday, officials announced the state’s first case, a 39-year-old woman in Manhattan, a health care worker who had been visiting Iran, one of the epicenters of the virus’s rapid worldwide spread.
Governor Cuomo said the news of the second New York patient should not be a cause for alarm, reiterating that health officials had expected that the disease would be found in multiple locations around the state and would be likely to spread.
“We don’t see any direct connection,” Mr. Cuomo said, noting that the patient is hospitalized.
So that’s one case in Manhattan (a woman who visited Iran) and one case in Westchester (with no obvious link to anyone) plus a school in Riverdale (right on the border of Westchester) closing because some may have been exposed to the virus.
Also, more details on the school closing, per Reuters: The SAR Academy and SAR High School in Riverdale, in the Bronx ,is the school that will close to Tuesday.
“At this time it important to remain calm,” according to the statement, which didn’t provide any more details.
Readers who are too young to remember the 2003 SARS outbreak might not remember, but NYC narrowly avoided an outbreak when a doctor from Singapore who had been infected by a patient flew to NYC for a conference. He grew increasingly ill while in New York, eventually cutting short his trip and boarding a flight for home, as the NYT reminds us.
Fortunately, the city already has MTA workers out in force disinfecting the subway.
Coronavirus In NYC: Disinfecting Subways & Buses – https://t.co/IlJ6nxCONB
— Kloud ☁️ (@_live_k) March 3, 2020
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* * *
Update (0840ET): With only one case confirmed in NYC, the hysteria is already descending, and it’s not limited to the Brooklyn Costco.
An NYC high school said it will close Tuesday due to a “suspected case of coronavirus in its community.”
- NEW YORK CITY HIGH SCHOOL SAYS CLOSED TUESDAY AFTER SUSPECTED CASE OF CORONAVIRUS IN ITS COMMUNITY – STATEMENT
Stocks aren’t going to like that.
Gov. Cuomo said he would hold a press conference to update the public at 9 am in New York.
Last night, Cuomo tweeted that he would require NY health insurers to cover coronavirus-related costs for New Yorkers.
BREAKING: I am announcing a new directive requiring NY health insurers to waive cost sharing associated with testing for #coronavirus, including emergency room, urgent care and office visits.
We can’t let cost be a barrier to access to COVID-19 testing for any New Yorker.
— Andrew Cuomo (@NYGovCuomo) March 3, 2020
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New Yorkers receiving Medicaid coverage will not have to pay a co-pay for any testing related to #coronavirus.
Currently all COVID-19 tests being conducted at the State’s Wadsworth Lab are fully covered.
— Andrew Cuomo (@NYGovCuomo) March 3, 2020
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We suspect we’ll know more soon.
* * *
Update (0800ET): UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock has confirmed 11 new cases in the UK, raising the total to 51.
* * *
Following the longest publicly-disclosed illness of Pope Francis’s papacy, the Vatican has confirmed that the leader of 1 billion Catholics has tested negative for the coronavirus. After days of insisting that the pope didn’t have the virus…somebody at the Vatican was clearly worried that the Pope might have been exposed.
Pretty soon, millions of Americans and Europeans will know that feeling, if they don’t already.
Yesterday, the death toll in the US climbed to 6, while the death toll across Europe has moved closer to 100. Late last night, officials in Washington State confirmed what many probably already suspected: 4 of the six deceased were either patients or staff at a nursing home in Kirkland, suburban Seattle.
Yesterday, the Dow posted its biggest one-day rebound in points as an endless parade of strategists and talking heads on CNBC jawboned hopes of ‘coordinated central-bank intervention’ into reality, though in the hours since Monday’s close, though hopes have dimmed somewhat, thanks in part to this Reuters report. As G7 finance minister and central bankers prepare for Tuesday morning’s conference call, it seems traders around the world have suddenly remembered that there’s not much central banks can do, even after the OECD called for a mix of monetary and fiscal stimulus to rescue global growth.
In the span of days, the number of confirmed coronavirus cases in the US has climbed to more than 100 across 15 states if we include the evacuees, along with six deaths so far. the White House, and other governments, are shifting their focus, according to the New York Times, to distributing tests and focusing on early identification and containment instead of trying to keep the virus out.
This comes as the number of cases worldwide surpassed 90,000 on Tuesday.
In China, Communist Party officials are luxuriating in their success, or at least a convincing image of success, in suppressing the outbreak: Now that the novel coronavirus appears to be on the decline, vindicating Beijing’s heavy handed tactics (for weeks, 760 million were subjected to some form of restriction on their movements, while 100 million faced punishment for leaving their homes without permission).
On Tuesday, Shanghai and Beijing instituted ‘travel bans’ directed at travelers from hot zones including Italy, South Korea and – of course – the US, turning President Trump’s ‘racist’ travel restrictions on their head. Here’s more from the NYT:
Major cities across China have announced new travel restrictions on people who have recently visited countries where coronavirus infections are on the rise.
On Tuesday, the authorities in Shanghai said that all travelers entering the city who had visited countries with significant outbreaks within the last two weeks must undergo a 14-day quarantine at home or at an approved isolation center. Officials in Guangdong Province announced similar measures, the state news media reported on Tuesday.
And a city official in Beijing announced on Tuesday that all arrivals into the capital from countries struggling with outbreaks — including Iran, Italy, Japan and South Korea — would be subject to a 14-day quarantine.
At least 13 people in China were found to be infected with the coronavirus after returning from countries such as Iran and Italy, two places that have seen some of the most severe outbreaks outside of Asia in recent days, according to the authorities.
A 31-year-old Chinese woman had worked in a restaurant in the Italian city of Bergamo before returning home to Qingtian County, in the southeastern province of Zhejiang, where she tested positive for the virus. Seven more people who worked at the same restaurant in Bergamo were later found to be infected after they returned to Zhejiang, the local authorities said.
In recent days, county officials in Qingtian have urged overseas residents to reconsider any plans to return home, citing the challenges they could pose to China’s efforts to control the epidemic.
Minutes ago, South Korean health officials released their second coronavirus update for Tuesday: Another 974 confirmed cases raised the country’s total to 5,186. Meanwhile, South Korea’s death toll climbed to 34.
Public fury in SK so far has been directed at a strange, cult-like church called Shincheonji. Its leader issued an apology yesterday following reports that public prosecutors were being pressed to charge him and 11 other church leaders with murder. Now, investigators are looking into two church members who traveled to South Korea in January from Wuhan. One of them have tested positive, while the other tested negative, according to CNN.
In Japan, another case was reported in Tokyo Tuesday, along with two additional cases in Osaka, and six cases between Nagoya and Kyoto.
Over in Europe, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said “we are ready for potential economic downside” as the UK faces a “national challenge” in defeating the virus.
Johnson added: “I am very confident that Britain will get through it in good shape.”
Asked about school closures, Johnson said “we don’t think schools should be closing in principle – they should stay open,” he said. But the public must follow the advice of Public Health England. However, given that children are actually considered “low risk” for COVID-19, Johnson said school closures might not fit into the government’s strategy. On Tuesday, cases in the UK climbed to 40.
In France, the increasingly unpopular “President for the Rich” Emmanuel Macron has become the latest victim of coronavirus rumors, after the president reportedly caught a cold and tried to pull out of an event. He has now reportedly been cajoled into visiting a hospital ward in Paris to try and dispel rumors that he’s dying of pneumonia.
In Iran, where the virus has killed at least 77 people (and more than 200 according to some reports), public health officials (at least those who haven’t already succumbed to the virus) confirmed that 2,336 cases have been counted. As case totals in Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Qatar, Oman, the UAE and Egypt climb, Iran’s regional neighbors have shut their borders and severed travel and trade links with the Islamic Republic. The head of Iran’s emergency medical services has become at least the fifth senior government official to be diagnosed with the virus after a senior advisor to the Ayatollah died yesterday. Additionally, 23 Iranian MPs were among the new cases on Tuesday.
As more companies restrict employee travel, Google on Tuesday told the bulk of staff at its European headquarters in Dublin have been asked to work from home after a staffer reportedly caught the flu.
As more countries cancelled cultural and sporting events across Europe, the head of European football’s government body said Tuesday that the Euro 2020 soccer tournament would move ahead as planned.
“You don’t know how many concerns we have when we organize a big competition […] We have security concerns, we have political instability concerns and one of those concerns is the virus. We are dealing with it and we are confident that we can deal with it,” said UEFA President Aleksander Čeferin at a presser in Amsterdam.
As the total number of cases in Spain climbs to 129, a person in Gibraltar has tested positive, the first case identified in the British territory on the southern coast of Spain.
Thailand has imposed compulsory self-quarantine on travelers arriving from hot zones in Asia, the Middle East and Europe following a spate of deaths in the country.
But now that the G7 communique has dashed the market’s hopes, get ready for another wild day.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 03/03/2020 – 18:48
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