Today’s News 7th July 2021

  • EU Proposes To Exempt Private Jets, Cargo From Jet Fuel Tax
    EU Proposes To Exempt Private Jets, Cargo From Jet Fuel Tax

    And so the oligarch and ruling class hypocrisy comes full circle…

    According to Argus Media, the European Commission – that murder of career bureaucrats – has proposed exempting private jets and cargo flights, two of the most polluting forms of transportation, from the planned EU jet fuel tax. A draft indicates that the tax would be phased-in for passenger flights, including ones that carry cargo.

    The draft, which the commission will on 14 July present with its proposed revisions to the bloc’s 2003 energy-taxation directive, indicates there could be an exemption from taxation for energy products and electricity used for intra-EU air navigation of cargo-only flights. It proposes allowing EU states to only tax such flights either domestically or by virtue of bilateral or multilateral agreements with other member states.

    The commission is worried that taxing fuel for cargo-only flights would adversely affect EU carriers, Argus reports adding that third-country carriers, also with a significant share of the intra-EU cargo market, have to be exempted from taxation due to aviation services agreements, the commission argues.

    Meanwhile, private jets will enjoy an exemption through classification of “business aviation” as the use of aircraft by firms for carriage of passengers or goods as an “aid to the conduct of their business”, if generally considered not for public hire. It gets better: a further exemption is given for “pleasure” flights whereby an aircraft is used for “personal or recreational” purposes not associated with a business or professional use.

    Non-governmental organization Transport & Environment (T&E) called the proposal “generally good”.

    “The downside, though, is the commission is considering exempting cargo carriers that are often US-run,” said its aviation director Andrew Murphy, who noted “multiple” solutions for taxing jet fuel used by cargo carriers that “tend to use older, dirtier aircraft”.

    Hilariously, none other than Murphy recently co-authored a report indicating that private-jet CO2 emissions in Europe rose by 31% between 2005 and 2019, with flights to popular destinations up markedly during summer holiday seasons. He has argued for a fuel tax for this “leisure-driven” private jet sector.

    But, naturally, the very rich people who use private jets, pulled just enough strings within Europe’s bureaucracy to avoid paying the tax.

    Of course, in a world of fake concerns about climate change and ESG poseurs galore, there needed to be some excuse for this glaring exemption, and sure enough Airlines for Europe (A4E) came up with on, saying that it feared setting minimum tax rates for intra-EU flights could lead to distortion of competition. The industry association, which counts 16 airline groups as members including Ryanair, Air France/KLM, Lufthansa, IAG, easyJet and Cargolux, indicated that the commission’s proposal could lead to aircraft deliberately carrying excess fuel bought outside the EU specifically to avoid the bloc’s jet fuel tax.

    So it’s best to just do away with the tax altogether.

    The draft may change before 14 July, and does not contain the all-important annexes with tax rates. To enter into force it must be approved by all 27 EU member states, and it may change markedly over the coming months. A commission proposal made in April 2011 to update EU energy taxation rules failed after finance ministers could not agree by unanimity in 2014.

    The commission wants to align energy taxation with EU climate goals, meaning that taxes should be based on the net calorific value of the energy products and electricity and that minimum levels of taxation across the EU would be set out according to environmental performance and expressed in €/GJ. These minimum levels should be aligned annually on the basis of the EU’s harmonised index of consumer prices, excluding energy and unprocessed food.

    Next week, the commission will propose changes to the EU’s emissions trading system (ETS). A draft of these did not detail how aviation will be treated, but no free allocations are envisaged for maritime, road transport and buildings sectors. Officials will also present the commission’s mandate for sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), whereby all firms could be expected to fill up with blended jet fuels at EU airports.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/07/2021 – 02:45

  • UK Government Launches Multi-Front Attack On Freedom Of Expression Under Guise Of National Security
    UK Government Launches Multi-Front Attack On Freedom Of Expression Under Guise Of National Security

    Authored by Patrick Cockburn via Counterpunch.org,

    Matt Hancock’s bungling effort to conceal his affair with Gina Coladangelo may give hope to some that all government attempts to keep information from the public will be equally futile.

    Unfortunately, the government has launched a carefully targeted multi-front offensive to hide its activities more effectively. Among measures being considered or already under way are a reformed Official Secrets Act that will conflate investigative journalism and whistleblowing with espionage. On another front, the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) is being crippled by rejecting requests and under-resourcing. At an individual level, ministers and senior officials escape scrutiny by using encrypted messaging services that can make conversations disappear from the record.

    Hancock himself was apparently so concerned over the contents of his emails that he used a private email account. Any enquiry into the test and trace debacle or the mass deaths in care homes may find it difficult to discover with whom the former health secretary was in contact.

    In the last year, the rejection of requests for information from central government under the FOIA have soared to 50 per cent compared to 15 per cent when it was first introduced.

    “The importance of FOIA is that it is a symbol of transparency which is why politicians hate it so much,” says Ben Worthy, a senior lecturer at Birkbeck specialising in transparency and freedom of information.

    He says that governments do not dare to abolish the act, but they can defang it by across-the-board rejections, deliberately long delays or simple non-compliance.

    Most threatening of all to the public knowing what the government is doing are proposed changes in the Official Secrets Act which would treat journalists, whistleblowers and leakers as if they were spies. A little-noticed 67-page consultative paper issued in May by the Home Office and titled Legislation to Counter State Threats (Hostile State Activity)says anybody revealing information that the government chooses to label as a state secret would be liable for prosecution. The papers defines espionage particularly broadly as “the covert process of obtaining sensitive confidential information that is not normally publicly available”.

    Critics say the proposed legislation would leave journalists and others facing the threat of 14 years in prison for publishing whatever the government may say is damaging to national security. The burden of proof for a successful prosecution would be reduced and juries would not necessarily be told why some disclosure poses such a serious threat.

    In Priti Patel’s introduction to the document, the home secretary portrays Britain as beset by enemies at home and abroad who pose a mounting danger to the nation. Her declared purpose is “to empower the whole national security community to counter the insidious threat we face today”.

    Supposing all these proposals are implemented then Britain will be well on the way to joining those countries where the disclosure of any information damaging to the government is punishable. Offences range from revealing war crimes to disclosing trivial failures. The Indian government would like to silence anybody revealing the true death toll in the Covid-19 epidemic; Turkey has jailed journalists for writing that it had supplied weapons to al-Qaeda-type organisations; the Egyptian government once stopped an academic from publishing a paper showing that more Egyptian farmers were going blind because of the spread of a waterborne parasite.

    Britain does not have the same tradition of authoritarian censorship, but freedom of expression here is more fragile than it looks for two reasons. The Johnson administration has been more moderate than many nativist populist governments that have taken power around the world over the last decade. But it shares with them a strategy of systematic threat-inflation, frequently modelled on the agenda of the Republican Party in the US. In the paper cited above, Patel speaks of the necessity of introducing voter IDs and combating foreign powers interfering in British elections.

    A second feature of British culture makes the country particularly open to the belief that somewhere in the heart of government lie informational crown jewels, well-guarded secrets so important that their disclosure would pose an existential threat to us all. Such a myth is central to the plot of thousands of spy novels and films. But in my experience as a journalist few such earth-shaking secrets exist and what many people think of as a secret is either trivial or can be deduced by any reasonably well-informed person.

    The disclosures by Dominic Cummings, recently in the top ranks of government as Boris Johnson’s chief of staff, are a good example of what might be termed “the fallacy of the state secret”. For more than seven hours he testified to a parliamentary committee about the inner workings and personal likes and dislikes within the Johnson government. He made damaging allegations about Hancock, Johnson, inadequate preparations for the Covid-19 pandemic, the failure to protect care homes and shambolic mistakes in calling the second lockdown.

    Yet none of these revelations were “secrets” in any sense of the word since the facts about these disastrous decisions and decision-makers had long been obvious. What made Cummings’s testimony so fascinating was that it provided eye-witness confirmation of what most people already knew.

    Much the same is true of the Wikileaks publication of hundreds of thousands of classified US diplomatic and military cables in 2010 for which Julian Assange is currently incarcerated in Belmarsh high security prison in London. Despite the best effort of the US government to prove the opposite, these supposed “secrets” revealed little that was not known previously, deeply embarrassing though it was for the US government to see proof that its helicopters were machine-gunning civilians in the streets of Baghdad.

    To try to maintain the classic spy movie narrative that secrets betrayed means that there is blood on the hands of the betrayers, the US army set up a task force to try to find a US agent who had died because of the Wikileaks revelations. But after long researches the team of 120 counterintelligence officers failed to find a single person, among the thousands of American agents and secret sources in Afghanistan and Iraq, who could be shown to have died because of the revelations.

    The real reason why governments fight so hard to maintain their monopoly control over information is not to keep security secrets vital to the nation, but to use or leak that information themselves.

    They know that it is one of the key levers of their power and will persecute and punish anybody who tries to take it from them.

    As Ben Worthy puts it, the struggle, which people imagine is about keeping secrets, is really about who discloses them and is consequently “a battle to control the news agenda”.

    *  *  *

    Patrick Cockburn is the author of War in the Age of Trump (Verso).

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/07/2021 – 02:00

  • Pressed For Answers On Syria Cover-Up, OPCW Chief Offers New Lies And Excuses
    Pressed For Answers On Syria Cover-Up, OPCW Chief Offers New Lies And Excuses

    Authored by Aaron Maté via TheGrayZone.com,

    Facing growing outcry, OPCW Director General Fernando Arias went before the UN and told new falsehoods about his organization’s Syria cover-up scandal – along with more disingenuous excuses to avoid addressing it.

    Part 1 of 2…

    In the two years since the censorship of a Syria chemical weapons investigation was exposed, the head of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), Fernando Arias, has vigorously resisted accountability.

    Arias has refused to investigate or explain the extensive manipulation of the OPCW’s probe of an alleged April 2018 chlorine attack in Douma. Rather than answer calls to meet with the veteran inspectors who protested the deception, Arias has disparaged them. The OPCW Director General (DG) has even resorted to feigning ignorance about the scandal, recently claiming that “I don’t know why” the organization’s final report on Douma “was contested.”

    Facing growing pressure to address the cover-up – most prominently in a “Statement of Concern” from 28 notable signatories, including five former senior OPCW officials – Arias came before the United Nations Security Council on June 3rd to answer questions in open session for the first time.

    In a nod to the public outcry, Arias backtracked from a previous statement that the Douma controversy could not be revisited. But while appearing to suggest that the investigation could be reopened, Arias offered more falsehoods about the scandal, and new disingenuous excuses to avoid addressing it.

    This two-part report summarizes Arias’ latest evasions and distortions, which include the following:

    • Rejecting proposals for resolving the Douma controvery, Arias invoked restrictions that do not appear to exist. Arias falsely claimed that the OPCW’s Scientific Advisory Board (SAB) has “no authority” to examine the suppressed Douma evidence. Arias also claimed that he personally has “no authority whatsoever to reopen this investigation,” even though the OPCW’s regulations contain no such limits.

    • To discredit the vast quantity of work that was done for the investigation’s original report, which found no evidence of a chlorine attack, Arias falsely stated that the “bulk” of analysis was conducted after its chief author was no longer involved. To advance this falsehood, Arias cited a fabricated figure.

    • Arias tacitly retracted a previous false claim that no state has challenged the Douma report’s conclusions. But instead of acknowledging that prior falsehood, he replaced it with a new one.

    • Arias did not answer direct questions about the documented scientific fraud in the Douma probe, and how he plans to address it. The DG ignored a question from the Russian delegation about why the Final Report omitted the conclusions of NATO member state toxicologists who ruled out chlorine gas as the cause of death. And for the third time, Arias did not respond to a question asking whether he will agree to meet with the dissenting inspectors.

    • A recent BBC podcast interviewed a purported OPCW source who discussed sensitive information and criticized the Douma whistleblowers, as well as the organization’s first Director General, José Bustani. Arias offered an absurd excuse to avoid launching an investigation, stating that he would only probe the breach of confidentiality if the BBC’s source “is identified.”

    • Arias continued to deceptively minimize the role of the key dissenting inspector, Dr. Brendan Whelan. Arias downplayed the fact that Whelan was the scientific coordinator and chief author of the team’s original report, and falsely claimed that he was only involved “in a limited capacity.”

    • Arias also continued to falsely downplay the role of the second known whistleblower, Ian Henderson. Arias’ latest distortions about Whelan and Henderson are addressed in the second part of this report.

    Arias’ UN appearance was the latest chapter in a saga that has upended the world’s chemical weapons watchdog. In April 2018, the US, UK and France bombed Syria after accusing its government of committing a chemical attack in Douma. In March 2019, the OPCW released a final report that aligned with the US narrative that Syria was guilty of dropping chlorine gas cylinders on a pair of apartment buildings, including one where dozens of dead bodies were filmed. But an extraordinary trove of leaks soon exposed that the OPCW had published a whitewash.

    Internal OPCW documents showed that the inspectors who investigated the Douma incident had found no evidence of a chemical weapons attack. The files also revealed gross inconsistencies in the prevailing narrative that chlorine was the cause of death. These findings, if released, would have reinforced strong indications that extremist insurgents who controlled Douma had staged the incident, just as Syrian forces were set to retake control. But the Douma evidence was concealed in a multi-stage cover-up.

    Unknown senior OPCW officials were caught trying to doctor the team’s original report to falsely suggest evidence of a chemical attack. A delegation of US officials also visited the Hague and, in a highly irregular move, tried to convince the team that chlorine gas was used by the Syrian government. The bulk of the original team who deployed in Douma was sidelined, replaced by officials who, for the most part, had not even set foot in Syria. The result was a deceptive final report that erased the key findings of the censored original.

    Although the OPCW leaks first surfaced in May 2019, Arias did not face direct questioning about the controversy until December of last year, when he came before the United Nations Security Council. However, Arias refused to answer in open session, and reportedly gave vague, non-substantive answers in private.

    The Director General’s decision to return to the UN to answer questions in open session followed growing public pressure, led by former senior UN official Hans von Sponeck, as well as Bustani, the former OPCW chief. Arias’ reliance on falsehoods and hollow excuses offered the most stark display yet that his handling of the Douma cover-up cannot be defended in good faith.

    OPCW chief falsely claims “no authority whatsoever” to address Douma cover-up

    Just weeks before his UN appearance, Arias told the European Parliament on April 14th that when it comes to the OPCW’s Douma scandal, “the matter is closed.”

    But when he came before the UN Security Council on June 3rd, Arias changed his tune. Rather than personally closing the door on revisiting the probe, Arias now claimed that he does not have the authority to re-open it. Arias did so by citing OPCW rules and restrictions that do not appear to exist.

    Arias’ fallacious excuse came in response to a new proposal to break the impasse. In April, the Berlin Group 21 – established by former UN assistant secretary general Hans von Sponeck, former OPCW chief Jose Bustani and Richard Falk, an eminent Princeton Law Professor – put forward a way to address the dispute over the Douma report. They urged Arias to allow the OPCW’s own Scientific Advisory Board (SAB) — a subsidiary body made up of 25 independent scientific and technical experts who serve in their personal capacities — to assess the claims of the dissenting inspectors.

    “The SAB possesses the necessary scientific and technical expertise,” the Berlin Group 21 statement said.  “[We] believe that leaving the scientific debate to the scientists, who best understand the issues at hand, would provide a more objective and rational approach to begin resolving this unfortunate and highly damaging controversy that surrounds the OPCW and indirectly endangers global security by eroding confidence in future findings relevant to alleged uses of chemical weapons.”

    At the UN Security Council, Arias rejected this proposal, claiming that his hands are tied by the OPCW’s own regulations:

     The goal of the Scientific Advisory Board is written, in the terms of reference, is to enable the Director-General to render specialized advice in connection with very sophisticated, very complicated matters and issues related to chemicals and chemical weapons.  Which means that the SAB has no role to assess the findings of the FFM.  The FFM is entrusted to investigate and activate an investigation to produce a report.  And this report—I sign the report, I don’t touch it—it goes directly to the policymaking organs, in this case the Executive Council.  Which means that the SAB has no authority to reassess the investigation of the FFM or to assess any opinion of the inspectors produced on a personal basis.

    In claiming that the SAB “has no authority to reassess” the Douma FFM’s findings, Arias is invoking a restriction that does not exist.

    In citing the SAB’s terms of reference (ToR), Arias failed to mention that it – along with the Chemical Weapons Convention — explicitly allows for the establishment of a temporary working group of scientific experts to provide recommendations on “specific issues” – exactly as the Berlin Group 21 proposed. Paragraph 9 of the SAB’s ToR states:

    In consultation with members of the [Scientific Advisory] Board, the Director-General may establish temporary working groups of scientific experts to provide recommendations within a specific time-frame on specific issues, in accordance with Article VIII, paragraph 45 of the [Chemical Weapons] Convention.

     Contrary to Arias’ claim, there is nothing preventing him from convening a working group of scientific experts to review the particularly “specific issue” that is the Douma investigation – arguably the most internally contested specific issue in the OPCW’s history. Yet Arias is claiming that he is somehow hindered by regulations that, in reality, explicitly grant him the authority to do exactly what he now claims he cannot.

    In stating this excuse, Arias also dismissed the work of the dissenting inspectors as having been “produced on a personal basis”, and therefore not subject to reevaluation. Yet there was nothing “personal” about the Brendan Whelan authored-original report, completed in June 2018 and reviewed and sanctioned by other inspectors, including the team leader. What remains unknown is who exactly were the senior OPCW officials who personally doctored its contents – a question that Arias has refused to investigate.

    Arias also offered another hollow excuse. The OPCW chief claimed that he can no longer revisit the Douma investigation because it is no longer “in the hands” of his office, but instead the policy-making organizations of the OPCW. According to Arias, that power now lies in the hands of the Executive Council, (the rotating group of 41 member states who govern the OPCW), and the full Conference of State Parties (all OPCW member states):

     I have to say that the report of the FFM directed to Douma is in the hands of the Executive Council and the Conference.  The Director-General has no authority whatsoever to reopen this investigation that concluded and was reported to the Executive Council, and through the Executive Council to the Conference.  The matter is in the hands of the policymaking organs and not of the Director-General.  The Executive Council was already seized of the matter in March 2019.

     This is the first time that the Director General has claimed that the report is out of his control, and instead “in the hands” of a higher body. In introducing this escape-hatch, Arias is now giving the appearance that in principle he no longer objects to a reopening of the investigation. In reality, he is skirting responsibility for that decision by passing it to executive bodies that have blocked any efforts to discuss the cover-up right from the start. Upon the release of the Douma final report in March 2019, the Executive Council immediately voted down a proposal to hear from all of the experts who worked on the Douma case. The US delegation lobbied to block the vote by reportedly arguing that such a hearing would be akin to “Stalinist trials.”

    Contrary to Arias’ assertions, the Chemical Weapons Convention does not support his claim that once a final report is issued, it becomes “in the hands of the Executive Council and Conference.” The relevant passage of the CWC simply states that the “Director General shall promptly transmit the preliminary and final reports to the Executive Council and to all States Parties.” (Part XI of the Verification Annex to the CWC, Investigations of Alleged Uses of Chemical Weapons, Section D [Reports], paragraph 23.)

    There is nothing to suggest here that the Executive Council – or the State Parties — becomes the custodian of these reports, or that the Technical Secretariat (TS), which the Director General oversees, somehow loses control over them.

    This is indeed borne out by past practice. It is common for the TS to make amendments to final reports and issue them without the Executive Council’s permission. Such amendments, which are issued as official TS “Addendums” to published reports, can be minor technical or typographic corrections, but also major substantive additions.

    This practice includes a previous OPCW investigation in Syria. After publishing a final report on alleged chemical attacks by insurgents in Syria in December 2015 (S/1318/2015/Rev.1), Syrian authorities invited the OPCW to return in order to collect further evidence that the report claimed was lacking. The FFM team paid a second visit to Syria one month later and published an Addendum to the final report — with details of its additional deployment — in February 2016. (S/1318/2015/Rev.1/Add.1).

    The Addendum contains no mention of the Executive Council, and there is no record of any EC vote to authorize it. The opening paragraph reads:

     This addendum provides information further to “The Report of the OPCW Fact-Finding Mission in Syria Regarding the Incidents Described in Communications from the Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs and Expatriates and Head of the National Authority of the Syrian Arab Republic” (S/1318/2015/Rev.1, dated 17 December 2015’).

     In the case of Douma, no one is even proposing that the OPCW return to Syria, as it did after issuing that final report of December 2015. The OPCW is simply being asked to hear from the Douma probe’s own inspectors, and address their complaints, including the doctoring of the mission’s original reportArias is passing the buck to a concocted higher authority in order to avoid exercising his own.

    Disparaging whistleblowers, OPCW chief cites a fabricated figure

    In one of his few attempts to make a substantive claim in defense of the Douma investigation, OPCW Director General Ferando Arias has repeatedly asserted that “most of the analytical work took place” in the last six or seven months, when the dissenting inspectors were no longer part of the Douma Fact-Finding Mission (FFM). Because of this, Arias has claimed that the whistleblowers “had manifestly incomplete information on the Douma investigation,” rendering their protests “egregious.”

    At the UN Security Council, Arias doubled down on this argument by adducing, for the first time, a purported figure to substantiate it. According to Arias, 70 samples were analyzed by the OPCW in the last six months of the investigation, when the dissenting inspectors were no longer involved. Arias made this claim twice:

    The FFM, after Inspector B departed, worked for more than six months, during which the bulk of the results of the investigation was got by the team.  For instance, out of the more than 100 samples, around more than 70 results were brought in those last six months of the investigation.

     Of course, the bulk of the investigations related to Douma came after I arrived to the Organisation after July 2018.  Of the more than 100 samples, more than 70 good samples were analyzed after the summer of 2018.  The bulk of the investigation, the bulk of information, the bulk of analysis, of all the information that had been gathered came after the two inspectors left.” 

    Arias’ claim that “more than 70” samples “were analyzed after the summer of 2018” in the “last six months of the investigation” is a demonstrable falsehood. Unless the OPCW somehow failed to report dozens of analyzed samples until now, the claim of 70 samples is a fabricated figure. In reality, the final report on Douma shows that just 44 samples were analyzed throughout the entire probe. And just 13 of those samples were analyzed after the issuing of the interim report — i.e., after the dissenting inspectors were out of the picture.

    With just 44 samples analyzed for the entire probe, and just 13 new samples analyzed in the final six months, this means that 70% of the Douma investigation’s total sample analysis was in fact conducted in its first month.

    Completely inverting that reality, Arias has now produced a phony figure that paints a false picture of the work conducted in the six months after the dissenting inspectors were sidelined.

    According to the Final Report, 70% of the total chemical samples analyzed were analyzed in the probe’s first month. Just 13 samples were analyzed in the last seven months, undermining OPCW DG Arias’ new claim that 70 samples were analyzed in that period. (Excerpt of Aaron Maté’s UN presentation, April 16 2021)

    By claiming that the “bulk of the investigation” was conducted after the whistleblowers were no longer involved, Arias is also erasing other critical areas of work conducted in the first two months and included in the suppressed original report.

    As I recently detailed in a UN presentation, a comparison between the interim report of July 2018 and the final report of March 2019 shows that the vast majority of the investigation was already done in the first two months in multiple key areas: 100% of the research of the scientific literature; 87% of the total interviews had been conducted and analyzed; a meeting with four NATO toxicologists had been convened, and 98.5% of the metadata analysis of media files from Douma was undertaken. In addition, a complete epidemiological study was reported in the original report, much of which was expunged from the final report.

    This means that, contrary to Arias’ claim, the bulk of the work was in fact carried out in the probe’s first two months.

    Retracting one falsehood, Arias replaces it with another

    At the European Parliament in April, Arias falsely claimed that no state party has challenged any of the Douma report’s conclusions, and that Russia even “agrees” with them:

    The conclusions of the report, paradoxically, have never been disputed by a state party. Even the Russian delegation agrees with the conclusions.

    Arias’ implausible contention was that, despite the heated two-year public dispute over the Douma investigation, no member state has challenged it. Yet Syria and Russia have vigorously challenged the report’s findings, within the OPCW itself and in a series of UN Security Council debates.

    As The Grayzone has previously reported, this phony talking point was first put forward by the NATO-tied website Bellingcat last year. Bellingcat produced excerpts of a letter that it claimed was sent by Arias in June 2019 to Dr. Brendan Whelan, the key dissenting inspector. This letter, Bellingcat declared, “reveals that at a diplomatic level behind closed doors, the Russian and Syrian governments have both agreed with the conclusions of the OPCW report.”

    But The Grayzone then revealed that not only was this claim ludicrous, but based on a “letter” that was never actually sent. The Grayzone obtained and published Arias’ actual letter to Whelan, which contained none of Bellingcat’s text.

    In a sign that he has now recognized the fallacy of the Bellingcat-promoted talking point, Arias tacitly walked it back in his June 3rd UN appearance. But instead of acknowledging his previous error, he replaced it with a new one. Arias now claimed:

    None of the 193 Member States of the OPCW have challenged the findings of the FFM that chlorine was found on the scene of the attack, in Douma.

     To support his claim about chlorine found at the scene, Arias cited a note verbal (diplomatic correspondence) from Russia:

    I have here in front of me a note verbal of the Russian Embassy, dated the 26th of April 2019, note #759 that includes an attachment.  Its a Russian Federation paper, based on the conclusions of the report of the FFM in Douma.  And this note required me to disseminate this report. This note, or report attached to the note by the Russian Embassy in The Hague said, Conclusion.  The Russian Federation does not challenge the findings contained in the FFM report regarding the possible presence of molecular chlorine in the cylinders, etc.”  This is on the web page from the Organisation.

     Arias’ own source undermines his claim. Whereas Arias told the UN that no state has “challenged the findings of the FFM that chlorine was found on the scene,” his evidence for that statement – a Russian note verbal – simply states that Russia “does not challenge” that there was a “possible presence of molecular chlorine in the cylinders.”

    The Russian correspondence goes on to explain why it explicitly does challenge the final report’s conclusion that chlorine was likely used as a chemical weapon. Responding to Arias at the UN, Russian Ambassador Vasily Nebenzya read the relevant passage in full:

    The Russian Federation does not challenge the findings contained in the FFM report regarding the possible presence of molecular chlorine on the cylinders.  However, the parameters, characteristics and exterior of the cylinders, as well as the data obtained from the locations of those incidents, are not consistent with the argument that they were dropped from an aircraft. The existing facts more likely indicate that there is a high probability that both cylinders were placed at Locations 2 and 4 manually rather than dropped from an aircraft. Apparently the factual material contained in the report does not allow us to draw a conclusion as to the use of a toxic chemical as a weapon. On that basis, the Russian Federation insists on the version that there was false evidence and on the staged character of the incident in Douma.

    Therefore, the only contention that Russia did not challenge is that of a “possible” presence of molecular chlorine in the cylinders found in Douma. That is for obvious reasons.

    No one has argued that there was no possibility of a chlorine presence. There were, after all, two chlorine cylinders found at the scene, so traces of chlorine could be expected. In reality, the OPCW did not even report any finding of chlorine gas on the cylinder. They found chloride, a breakdown product of chlorine gas but also a very common substance in the environment, and in household products like table salt and other chloride salts. Chloride theoretically could have been dispersed around the cylinders.

    Other possible evidence of chlorine gas use came from very low traces of various chlorine-containing organic compounds (CLOCs) found at the scene — most, if not all, of which can be present in the environment. Because the OPCW failed to test background samples – an oversight or deliberate omission that Whelan later described as scientifically indefensible – it could not determine if these trace quantities of CLOCs found at the scene pointed to chlorine gas use, or if they came from benign sources.

    When challenged at the UN on his misrepresentation of the Russian note verbal, Arias did not offer a rebuttal. He instead tersely stated: “The Russian note verbale is published and that is what they have to say.”

    Arias’ willingness to deceive the UN on the details of the Douma probe and the OPCW’s own capacity to address it also extends to his portrayal of the whistleblowers, as we will explain in detail in the second part of this report.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/06/2021 – 23:40

  • CDC Insists Benefits Of mRNA Vaccines Still "Clearly Outweigh" Risks Of Dangerous Side Effects
    CDC Insists Benefits Of mRNA Vaccines Still “Clearly Outweigh” Risks Of Dangerous Side Effects

    With a new round of data out of Israel seemingly confirming what we have been reporting for weeks now, fresh questions are emerging about the efficacy of the mRNA vaccines (those produced by Pfizer and Moderna) and whether they’re truly 90%+ effective, as advertised.

    As the number of confirmed COVID cases topped 184MM, the Israeli health ministry shared preliminary data appearing to confirm that these vaccines are less effective at preventing infection via the Delta variant. Although the data must still be peer reviewed, the Israelis went so far as to proclaim that the true efficacy number is closer to 64%. To be sure, the vaccines continue to mostly prevent severe infection and death (though they’re only 93% effective at this, less than the 100% number initially touted by their corporate parents).

    Now, with President Joe Biden publicly addressing the administration’s ongoing effort to combat COVID as case numbers continue to creep higher in the US, the CDC has chimed in – right on cue – to remind the world that the benefits of everybody taking the vaccine still far outweigh the risks posed by the rare (but sometimes deadly) side effects that have now also been documented.

    As we reported, the FDA now recognizes that the rare heart inflammation seen in some patients, including members of the military, have been linked to mRNA vaccines. So, with criticism and skepticism directed at the US-made vaccines mounting, the CDC on Tuesday tried its hand at a little damage control.

    Per Bloomberg:

    The benefits of messenger RNA Covid-19 vaccines clearly outweigh the risks despite heart complications seen in a relatively small number of mostly young men, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Roughly 1,200 cases of myocarditis, or inflammation of the heart wall, were reported in people who received mRNA vaccines, the CDC said in its Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report on Tuesday. But with about 296 million doses of mRNA vaccines having been administered as of June 11, the benefit is clear in all populations, including adolescents and young adults, the researchers reported.

    For the Biden Administration, the stakes have never been higher. COVID cases are rising, and many are blaming Southern and western states with lower vaccination rates as a potential vulnerability that could ignite another wave of COVID.

    Meanwhile, in the UK, PM Boris Johnson just confirmed that he plans to relax the last remaining COVID restrictions in England on July 19. But already, public health advisers and other “experts” are pressuring him to reconsider.

    And in the US, the daily case numbers have started to creep higher, while the pace of vaccinations has slowed dramatically. Still, just under 70% of American adults have received at least one dose.

    While the Biden Administration has already given employers the green light to pressure employees to get vaccinated, and will undoubtedly continue to do whatever it can to pressure more adults to accept the vaccine, Dr. Scott Gottlieb points out that most Americans will eventually acquire immunity either through natural infection, or the vaccine.

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    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/06/2021 – 23:20

  • Dershowitz Predicts Charges Against Trump Org's CFO Will Be Tossed
    Dershowitz Predicts Charges Against Trump Org’s CFO Will Be Tossed

    Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

    Harvard Law professor emeritus Alan Dershowitz says he believes federal tax fraud charges filed in New York City against The Trump Organization’s longtime finance chief will end up being dismissed.

    “You can’t get a city district attorney indicting somebody for failing to pay federal income taxes when the IRS hasn’t even gone after him,” Dershowitz said in a July 3 interview with Newsmax.

    “One of the charges, a major charge, is grand larceny against the United States government.

    “That shows the extent to which they are prepared to stretch existing law and the Constitution to give them authority over federal taxes. It’s absurd.

    Allen Weisselberg, Trump Organization CFO, leaves Manhattan Criminal Court after his arraignment in State Supreme Court in Lower Manhattan on July 1, 2021. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)

    On July 1, The Trump Organization and its chief financial officer, Allen Weisselberg, were charged in what New York prosecutors called a “sweeping and audacious” tax fraud scheme in which Trump’s company and Weisselberg allegedly cheated the state and city out of taxes by conspiring to pay senior executives off the books by way of fringe benefits, such as apartment rent and car payments.

    Prosecutor Carey Dunne said in court that the alleged scheme was “orchestrated by the most senior executives” at the firm and got “secret pay raises at the expense of state and federal taxpayers.”

    Weisselberg and attorneys for The Trump Organization have pleaded not guilty.

    Ahead of the unsealing of the criminal indictment on July 1, The Trump Organization criticized Manhattan prosecutors for what they claimed was a partisan criminal investigation designed to hurt Trump politically. In a July 1 statement, The Trump Organization said the probe “is not justice; this is politics.”

    Dunne pushed back on the claim, saying that “politics has no role in the jury chamber, and I can assure you it had no role here.”

    Alan Futerfas, a member of The Trump Organization’s defense team, disagreed.

    “I believe the political forces driving today’s events are just that. It’s political, politically driven, notwithstanding the statements by my colleague at the DA’s office in court today,” Futerfas said.

    Weisselberg himself has been accused of defrauding the federal government—along with New York state and New York City—of more than $1 million in unpaid taxes and tax refunds for which he was ineligible.

    The most serious charge against Weisselberg, grand larceny, carries a sentence of between 5 and 15 years behind bars.

    Attorney Alan Dershowitz, then member of President Donald Trump’s legal team, speaks to the press in the Senate Reception Room during the Senate impeachment trial at the Capitol in Washington on Jan. 29, 2020. (Mario Tama/Getty Images)

    Dershowitz told Newsmax he believes the charges against Weisselberg, who has intimate knowledge of The Trump Organization’s financial dealings, are a pressure tactic to get him to testify against Trump’s company.

    “If he doesn’t turn, they will sentence him to prison, probably will not be a long prison term. Generally for crimes like this relating to a relatively small amount of taxes, there’s either no prison time or a small amount in prison time,” Dershowitz told the outlet.

    “That’s the goal, to try to get people like him to testify against the higher-ups,” Dershowitz said.

    “The ultimate goal here obviously, is Donald Trump. And the question is, will they get people to turn on him?”

    This comes as Trump has been discussing a possible comeback run for president in 2024.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/06/2021 – 23:00

  • Japan's No.2 Says US & Japan "Must Defend Taiwan Together" 
    Japan’s No.2 Says US & Japan “Must Defend Taiwan Together” 

    Washington appears to be successfully wooing Japan to its side after urging a more united ‘standing up’ against China when it comes to Taiwan and other contested sovereignty issues in the South China Sea. 

    Japanese Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso on Monday made some surprising statements, saying that any future Chinese invasion of Taiwan would likely be interpreted in Tokyo as a “threat to Japan’s survival” – allowing the government to deploy its Self-Defense Forces for collective self-defense.

    Taro Aso, Japan’s deputy prime minister, Getty Images

    While not necessarily a new policy given recent updates to Japan’s post-World War II constitution allow the country to deploy armed forces only in instances it’s under attack,  Aso’s choosing to specifically invoke the hotly contested Taiwan issue alongside an expressed willingness to defend the island with the United States will be taken as especially bellicose and brazen in Beijing. 

    “If a major incident happened [in Taiwan], it would not be strange at all if it touches on a situation threatening survival,” Aso said. “If that is the case, Japan and the US must defend Taiwan together.” The number two highest Japanese official further noted “the situation over Taiwan is becoming extremely intense” – especially following a Xi speech days ago wherein he vowed to enforce Chinese sovereignty over the island. 

    At the moment Japan is actually locked in its own direct standoff with China over the uninhabited Senkaku Islands, recently giving its coast guard looser rules of engagement in dealing with Chinese fishing vessels, believed used of China to attempt a quiet de facto takeover of the disputed territory.

    Recall that in the very first phone call early this year between Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Japan’s Defense Minister, the Biden administration had reaffirmed a previously agreed upon US commitment to defending Japanese sovereignty over the Senkakus.

    Meanwhile as was revealed last week…

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    “Secretary Austin further affirmed that the Senkaku Islands are covered by Article V of the US-Japan Security Treaty, and that the United States remains opposed to any unilateral attempts to change the status quo in the East China Sea,” the late January call readout had stated. 

    Later in April Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga and President Biden issued a joint statement that urged “peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait” – however at that time it’s likely the American side had pressed for more specific and assertive language.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/06/2021 – 22:40

  • Weimar Los Angeles: "You Can't Go Home Again"
    Weimar Los Angeles: “You Can’t Go Home Again”

    Authored by Roger Simon, op-ed via The Epoch Times,

    When I saw video online of Antifa attacking demonstrators in front of the Wi Spa in Los Angeles’ Koreatown, I realized why, in the immortal words of Thomas Wolfe, “You Can’t Go Home Again.”

    But unlike Wolfe, who, in his famous novel, was loath to return to his native Asheville, North Carolina, I am in the south, resistant to returning to California where I lived most of my adult life.

    It was the homeless coming down in the morning from Mulholland Drive on the way to free food and not-so-free drugs, making even walking the dog a perilous activity, that had initially propelled our family out—at least in part.

    But things have apparently only gotten worse since, considering what transpired at the Wi Spa. That was a place I knew because, in the eighties and nineties and into the first few years of this century, I had become an occasional habitué of LA’s Korean spas, excellent places to relax in the hot water, although I can only recall patronizing Wi once.

    Nothing happened there then remotely similar to what occurred the other day—a man walking buck naked into the women’s only side, declaring his “gender identity” female, while not bothering to hide the contrary evidence in front of the assembled biological women and their children.

    Later, a black woman expressed her justifiable anger at this display before management only to be herself confronted by a particularly obnoxious “woke” individual defending the right of the gender dysphoric to freak out kids. (This is also on video at the link, if you haven’t seen it.)

    The next chapter had defenders of traditional human privacy (aka “normals” as my friend Kurt Schlichter calls them) protesting in front of the spa when they are confronted by the violent Antifa psychos who are apparently immune to any kind of serious prosecution by the district attorneys of Los Angeles, Portland and Seattle or, for that matter, our Department of Justice.

    What are we to make of this other than it is all too predictable by now?

    America, in its blue states at least, and they are doing their best to spread the poison elsewhere, has turned us into a land of the “woke” where near-total conformity rules the day, the populace terrified to speak up against the real intention behind this basic Marxist behavior—the destruction of the family as we know it.

    When you look at the silent faces standing in the lobby of the Wi Spa while the “woke” spokesman pontificates, you see this fear and all you can say is “Welcome to Weimar Los Angeles.”

    Indeed, the direction of our republic is eerily similar to that of Weimar, Germany, in everything from social mores to inflation.

    One of the more interesting books that gives a sense of what it was like then is—doubly apropos since we are in the middle of Wimbledon—“A Terrible Splendor” about the epochal 1937 Davis Cup duel between America’s Don Budge and Germany’s Baron von Cramm—a handsome gay man who was under the thumb of the Gestapo at that time for his proclivities so that he would win against the Yankee.

    Meanwhile, license prevailed for others in 1930s Berlin beyond anything we would even conceive of today.

    What the self-described “progressives” of LA and elsewhere have to learn is this is not about whether you are pro or anti gay. There are plenty of gays on the right these days. Or how you feel about the transgendered. Personally, I’m live and let live.

    It is about something much more basic we all learned in school when school really was school and not a Cultureal Revolution indoctrination camp. I’m going to put it in caps, lest it be forgotten:

    RESPECT THE RIGHTS OF OTHERS!

    Disrespecting others is what Antifa, BLM and virtually everyone else on the left is doing now at a level unknown since the Weimar Republic.

    We all know how that ended.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/06/2021 – 22:20

  • Texas AG: Biden Administration 'On The Side Of Cartels' When It Comes To Southern Border
    Texas AG: Biden Administration ‘On The Side Of Cartels’ When It Comes To Southern Border

    President Biden’s southern border crisis is growing increasingly grave by the week. A flood of migrants continues to pour into the country as the president, earlier this year, reversed many of his predecessor’s immigration policies, including having asylum seekers remain in Mexico instead of in the U.S. and ending border wall construction.

    Speaking first hand about the border crisis, because frankly, the mainstream media continues to ignore the issue, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton recently appeared on the Sara Carter Show podcast to discuss immigration. 

    “Not only are we fighting illegal immigration and the cartels,” Paxton said, “but we’re fighting the Biden administration.” Instead of lending a hand to the Lone Star state, “They’re on the side of the cartels literally helping them to transport human beings into our state.”

    As a result, the attorney general admits he’s afraid of his own federal government. “Look, I’ve never been more afraid of our own government than I am right now. I’ve never been more afraid of law enforcement,” Paxton told Carter. “These are people that we expect to hold to a very high standard, whether it’s whether it’s you know, the FBI or the CIA, these national federal organizations have become very political.”

    Every passing day, the Biden administration continues to mishandle the border crisis. The reversal in former President Trump’s policies has resulted in a massive surge in migrants, including unaccompanied minors, which has overwhelmed capacity at immigration facilities. 

    Paxton’s only solution to combat the administration is through a barrage of lawsuits:

    “We are definitely in the fight with the Biden administration. We have 11 lawsuits right now, that’s in the first six months of his administration,” he said. “They matter because we have to fight, we have to hold them accountable for violating federal law, for not following the President’s constitutional duty.”

    With the administration’s unwillingness to secure the border, South Dakota is sending their National Guard members to defend Texans from border chaos. 

    On Tuesday,  Fox News’ Bill Melugin snaped images of at least 100 migrants in La Joya, Texas, who just crossed the border. 

    He said this is the “largest single group of migrants I’ve ever seen is currently being apprehended here in La Joya, TX. At least 100+ and more still coming down the road. Many children coughing, some moms breastfeeding. Some I talked to are from Nicaragua, Honduras, & Guatemala.” 

    One of Melugin’s images shows the +100 group of migrants lined up alongside U.S. Customs and Border Protection trucks. Agents appeared to be interviewing the migrants. There was no word on what agents were discussing. 

    Here are other images of the large group. 

    On Monday, former Acting Director of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) Ron Vitiello told “Fox & Friends First” that the “root cause of the chaos” at the southern border is Biden’s quick reversal of former President Trump’s immigration policies. 

    Listen to the entire interview or skip to the 32-minute mark where Carter and Paxton talk about the border crisis. 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/06/2021 – 22:00

  • Fake Chips Flood China Market, Fill Overseas Supply Chains
    Fake Chips Flood China Market, Fill Overseas Supply Chains

    Authored by Winnie Han via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Counterfeit products have been circulated in China’s electronics market for a long time. However, as the global chip shortage intensifies, a large amount of refurbished, substandard fake chips are flood the market, exposing major deficiencies in China’s quality control standards.

    A chip the size of a coin, used in central processing units and a graphic processing units developed by the US-headquartered Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is displayed during a press conference held in Taipei on May 24, 2011. (Sam Yeh/AFP via Getty Images)

    China Economic Observer reported a chip agent revealed that to meet the growing demand, suppliers were no longer keeping their counterfeiting practices secret. Instead, they are openly creating separate production lines to expedite the sales of counterfeit or refurbished chips. Furthermore, businesses are no longer offering the shoddy products at half price. Many are being sold at full market value.

    The agent identified two types of counterfeit chips. The first involves recycling used chips from e-waste by removing the logo and cleaning them for resale with new packaging. The second involves packaging the substandard chips from the regular production line and selling them as good products.

    Not surprisingly, customers were often dissatisfied with the product’s performance, reliability, and durability. However, the deficiencies were not immediately evident until after the chips were used over time or under extreme conditions. At which point, it would be the customers or manufacturer of the final products who suffer a loss, while the fake chip providers often avoid troubles, according to the chip agent.

    Small and Medium-sized Enterprises Are Most Affected

    China has long relied on imported chips. Small and medium-sized enterprises are unable to directly order from overseas manufacturers due to the small quantities, and can only purchase through third-party distributors. Thus, small and medium-sized enterprises in China have become the largest buyers of fake chips, and also the largest group of victims.

    For example, a small company once designed a simple data acquisition card. The debugging stage always showed abnormal results. It raised concerns about the design. But through the help of a chip disassembly company that compared it with an authentic chip purchased through proper channels, they found that the problem stemmed from the chip being fake.

    Some of the Fake Chips Flowed Overseas

    The commercial district of Huaqiangbei in Shenzhen, Guangdong, is well known for its counterfeit chip dealers. It has become the largest distribution center for integrated circuit products in Asia. While most of the chips produced there stay in China, many are believed to be filling overseas supply chains, especially through the exporting of Chinese electronic products. It prompts legal liability concerns that rarely get resolved.

    Zhu Yicong, a senior equity partner at Yingke (Shenzhen) Law Firm, told Chinese state media that legal actions are rarely taken against China’s questionable chip manufacturers. This is despite how China’s laws consider it illegal to offer “substandard”  or counterfeit products. But because the term “substandard” is ambiguous, independent examiners may be needed to prove the chips being sold are not genuine and reliable.

    Another reason is that some buyers, due to supply shortages or cost-cutting, take a tacit attitude towards illegal chips, and deliberately mix the genuine chips with the fake ones, which encouraged the formation of a counterfeit industrial chain. Unfortunately, the end-users and consumers have to bear all the risks.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/06/2021 – 21:40

  • Iran: Major Electricity Blackouts During Hot Summer Lead To Growing Anti-Regime Protests
    Iran: Major Electricity Blackouts During Hot Summer Lead To Growing Anti-Regime Protests

    Widespread power outages in Iran which have continued this week have plunged entire cities into darkness and is fueling growing anti-government protests less than a month before hardline judiciary cleric Ebrahim Raisi enters office as president. Frequent power cuts have also high neighboring Iraq, given it’s currently reliant for much of its electrical supply on Iran’s infrastructure. 

    Multiple social media videos have spread across the internet which show Iranians chanting “death to the dictator” and other anti-Ayatollah slogans, though the footage can’t be verified. 

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    Iranians have over the past months come to expect such disruptions, but starting late Saturday unusually long power outages impacted large swathes of Tehran and nearby Karaj, among others. 

    The weekend Tehran outage had been unannounced (after for months the country has implemented scheduled power cuts over a severe supply shortage and rising demand), and sparked widespread anger. It went from 11pm Saturday night through early the next morning in the middle of a hot summer.

    Iran hawks in the West are seizing upon the protests in an attempt to argue against restoring the JCPOA nuclear deal

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    The regional news source Iran International explained that the country’s power consumption this summer “has topped 60,000 megawatts per day, a more than ten percent increase compared with last year, while electricity generation has remained the same at 50,000-56,000 megawatts.” And further the report notes:

    As electricity remains subsidized and cheap, there is no incentive for people to limit its use. It also makes Iran a magnate for cryptocurrency mining by huge computer farms that are consume perhaps up to ten percent of electricity supplies in the country.

    In recent months authorities have vowed to disrupt all illegal crypto mining, despite it once being a key way for the country to offset the severe US sanctions blow under the past Trump administration. 

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    The hotter temperatures and growing broad-level frustration has resulted in rare acts of self-criticism by the government, starting with speaker of the parliament Mohammad Qalibaf, who began this week with a written statement acknowledging thefrequent power outages throughout the country and disruption of people’s lives and businesses require planning and management.

    “If the increase in consumption and excess demand is not compensated in the short term for any reason, at least stick to the announced blackout schedule so that people can plan for problems,” he continued in unusually blunt recognition of the crisis.

    And this was followed Tuesday with an unprecedented apology from outgoing president Hassan Rouhani:

    In a government meeting broadcast live on state TV, Rouhani acknowledged that chronic power outages over the past week have caused Iranians “plenty of pain” and expressed contrition in an unusually personal speech.

    “My apologies to dear people who have faced these problems and pain,” he said.

    Some Iranian towns are actually experiencing water supply cut offs to boot, given in some places it relies on power to pipe supply.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/06/2021 – 21:20

  • US Forces Are Under Constant Rain Of Fire In Both Syria And Iraq
    US Forces Are Under Constant Rain Of Fire In Both Syria And Iraq

    By SouthFront.org,

    The United States seems to have stepped in a wasp’s nest after their most recent strikes on ‘resistance’ positions along the Syrian-Iraqi border. The US strike took place on June 27th. The response from the resistance came on the very next day.

    The largest American base in Syria – at the al-Omar Oil Field came under fire by at least 8 rockets, which resulted in no casualties but significant material damage. Exactly a week later, reports surfaced of another rocket attack on al-Omar, this time the rumors were first spread by a US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) spokesman.

    The reports of an attack were subsequently denied by both the US and the SDF. Other reports, however, said the blasts were caused as a result of “training” activity taking place among foreign forces there.

    Alongside all of this, US convoys in Iraq are subject to daily IED attacks, with the most recent one taking place on July 5th, in the Baghdad governorate.

    There is no single area of focus for these attacks, as they happen all across Iraq’s provinces.

    In the very early hours of July 6th, another attack took place in Iraq – this time in Baghdad’s “Green Zone” which hosts various important buildings, such as the US Embassy. The Union 3 US base is located there, and C-RAM air defense systems were activated in response to a suicide drone attack on the compound. In the middle of the night air raid sirens sounded and then the air defenses were activated and began hunting for the UAV, successfully downing it judging by footage that’s available online.

    A more successful attack was aimed at al-Asad Air Base, also located in Iraq.

    On July 5th, at least three rockets landed on the base, not causing any casualties and undisclosed material damage. Ain al-Asad has been the frequent target of rocket attacks attributed to Iran-backed Shiite militias operating both in Iraq and Syria. The base was also targeted by Iranian ballistic missiles in January of 2020, after the US killed Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad with an air attack. Soleimani was Tehran’s top Middle East operator.

    The United States accuses Iranian-backed militia groups of launching regular rocket attacks against its troops in Iraq. The American punitive air strikes on bases operated by these militias along the Syrian-Iraqi border come in response to these “violations”. The Hashed-al-Shaabi, an Iraqi paramilitary alliance that includes several Iranian proxies and has become the main power broker in Baghdad, said the raids killed four of its fighters in the Qaim region near the border with Syria.

    As such, it is likely that the response against Washington’s forces is far from over.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/06/2021 – 21:00

  • As Pandemic Restrictions In India Ease, The Price Of Gold Swings From A Discount To A Premium
    As Pandemic Restrictions In India Ease, The Price Of Gold Swings From A Discount To A Premium

    The price of gold has swung to a premium in India, one of the countries that helps drive the most demand for the precious metal. It marks the first time in more than two months it has sold for a premium, according to a new report from Reuters featured on Mining.com. 

    The demand comes after pandemic restrictions in the country were slightly relaxed over the last 60 days. This has catalyzed a bump higher in retail demand, as people make purchases for weddings, the report says. 

    Local gold futures on Friday of last week traded at about 47,400 rupees per 10 grams of gold and dealers were charging a premium of up to $3 per ounce this week compared to last week’s discount of $12. 

    One dealer based in Mumbai said: “There is slight improvement in demand from jewellers as some of them think prices could rise above $1,800 and want to stock up.”

    Meanwhile premiums in China – another major driver of gold demand – narrowed to between $3 and $4 per ounce versus between $3 and $6 per ounce last week. The report also notes that a growth in shipments from Switzerland in April and May was due to local prices trading at a premium, rather than an improvement in demand. 

    In Hong Kong, premiums were at $1 versus $0.70-$1 an ounce in the week prior. In Japan, demand was quiet, with premiums at $0.50 per ounce. 

    Vincent Tie, sales manager at Singapore dealer, Silver Bullion, concluded: “Investors’ demand for gold has marginally increased since May as they are back in the market buying the dip, seeing current prices as a good opportunity.”

     

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/06/2021 – 20:40

  • Why Is NASA Working So Hard To Learn How To Defend The Earth From Giant Asteroids?
    Why Is NASA Working So Hard To Learn How To Defend The Earth From Giant Asteroids?

    Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

    Did you know that NASA is going to send a spacecraft on a suicide mission in an attempt to change the trajectory of a massive space rock?  The good news is that the space rock that NASA will be crashing this spacecraft into is not on a collision course with Earth.  It is only a test.  But why has NASA suddenly become so concerned with figuring out how to defend the Earth from giant asteroids?  Could it be possible that there is something heading toward Earth in the future that they haven’t told us about yet?

    According to NASA, there are more than 26,000 asteroids that pass near Earth, and more than 2,000 of them are classified as “potentially dangerous” asteroids.

    Most of those “potentially dangerous” asteroids aren’t that large, but 158 of them do have a diameter of more than one kilometer.

    If one of those monsters were to hit us, it would be a disaster of cataclysmic proportions.

    Of course there are countless other space rocks that our scientists have not discovered yet, and those probably represent the greatest threat.  Because if you don’t see a threat coming, you can’t get prepared for it in advance.

    These days, NASA officials have become quite preoccupied by the threat that giant space rocks potentially pose, and we are being told that “scientists are at work on a plan to avoid the destruction of Earth by an errant asteroid”.  The following comes from an article that was just published by the Boston Globe

    NASA and a cadre of the world’s leading engineers and space scientists are at work on a plan to avoid the destruction of Earth by an errant asteroid like the one 65 million years ago that wiped out the dinosaurs, created a cloud of dust so impenetrable that it blocked out the sun, and plunged the planet into a prolonged winter that sent half of all plant life into extinction.

    Personally, I think that this is something that NASA should definitely be focusing on, because the threat is very real.

    Most people don’t realize this, but our planet is actually being pelted by space debris on a constant basis at this point.  In fact, NASA says that we are being hit by very small objects “every day”

    Every day, Earth is bombarded by tons of dust and sand-sized particles from the solar system. Meteoroids burn up as they enter the Earth’s atmosphere causing little or no damage. They are easy to spot, streaking across the night sky in brilliant, short-lived bursts of light. Of more concern are the asteroids that pass by Earth unnoticed; they are difficult to detect and track as observers depend on reflected sunlight to spot them.

    Thankfully, the vast majority of the objects that we encounter are too small to do any damage.

    But it is just a matter of time before a really big space rock comes along.

    NASA officials like to give the impression that they have a really good idea of what is going on up there, but the truth is that our ability to detect large space rocks is still quite limited.  In May, a “potentially hazardous” asteroid that came close to Earth was only discovered about a week before it arrived

    The reason why 2021 KT1 is news is that NASA estimates that it’s between 492 feet/150 meters and 1,082 feet/330 meters in diameter. It wasn’t observed until late in May 2021 just a week before its closest pass.

    And late last year a fairly large asteroid was not discovered until it had already buzzed dangerously close to our planet

    Wow. A low-flying space rock set a record last Friday (appropriately, the 13th), when 2020 VT4 passed just under 400 kilometers (250 miles) over the Southern Pacific.

    The asteroid was spotted by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) survey at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii in the early morning hours of Saturday, November 14th, just 15 hours after approach. This is not uncommon for fast-movers, especially asteroids that are coming at the Earth from our sunward blind-spot, like 2020 VT4.

    So if a major threat is headed our way, we may or may not see it coming in advance.

    If we do have advance warning that a huge asteroid is coming, obviously we would want to try to do something about it.  With such a scenario in mind, NASA will soon be crashing the DART spacecraft into a giant space rock called Dimorphos

    Developed by a team of scientists from the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory and NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office, DART is an unmanned, remotely controlled astronomical suicide mission designed to nudge an asteroid that is half a mile in diameter out of its orbit. Doomsayers take note: This is only a test. The asteroid in question, Didymos — Greek for “twin,” and so named because it was discovered to be paired with its own small moon — is not actually on a collision course with Earth.

    Sometime between Thanksgiving week (perhaps as soon as the evening of Nov. 23) and February 2022, the team behind DART will launch it from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket. The spacecraft will, if all goes according to plan, travel 6.8 million miles to reach and collide with Didymos’s moonlet, Dimorphos, which is 525 feet in diameter.

    Is NASA testing out technology that they plan to use on another giant space rock at a later date?

    Some have suggested that an asteroid known as Apophis could hit us on April 13th, 2029

    On April 13, 2029 (which happens to be Friday the 13th), something unsettling will happen.

    A decent-sized asteroid, the 1,100-foot-wide Apophis, will pass so close to Earth it’ll be visible in the sky from certain places. Crucially, the giant rock will not strike our humble planet. But it will pass closer than 20,000 miles from the surface, which is closer than where some of the United States’ most prized weather satellites orbit.

    But NASA insists that Apophis will not hit us “for at least a century”

    After its discovery in 2004, asteroid 99942 Apophis had been identified as one of the most hazardous asteroids that could impact Earth. But that impact assessment changed as astronomers tracked Apophis and its orbit became better determined.

    Now, the results from a new radar observation campaign combined with precise orbit analysis have helped astronomers conclude that there is no risk of Apophis impacting our planet for at least a century.

    Estimated to be about 1,100 feet (340 meters) across, Apophis quickly gained notoriety as an asteroid that could pose a serious threat to Earth when astronomers predicted that it would come uncomfortably close in 2029. Thanks to additional observations of the near-Earth object (NEO), the risk of an impact in 2029 was later ruled out, as was the potential impact risk posed by another close approach in 2036.

    The orbit of Apophis is now very well known by astronomers all over the globe.  To me, all of the giant space rocks that are floating around up there that we don’t know about represent a much greater threat.

    Unfortunately, the number of large space rocks going by our planet has been steadily increasing, and I believe that there is a good chance that we could see an asteroid impact long before 2029 ever rolls around.

    If NASA officials know about such a threat, for now they aren’t admitting that to the public.

    But they are admitting that they are trying to figure out how to deflect a very large asteroid, and that should definitely be getting our attention.

    *  *  *

    Michael’s new book entitled “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/06/2021 – 20:20

  • Eric Adams Wins New York Democratic Primary After Mail-In Ballots Tallied
    Eric Adams Wins New York Democratic Primary After Mail-In Ballots Tallied

    Former NYPD police captain Eric Adams has officially won the New York City Democratic mayoral primary despite a vote-counting ‘discrepancy’ last week which – had it not been caught – would have likely resulted in former sanitation commissioner Kathryn Garcia clinching the win.

    The Associated Press called the race for Adams shortly after the most recent batch of results were released in New York’s ranked-choice primary on Tuesday afternoon, setting him up as the overwhelming favorite to win the general election in November, according to The Hill.

    Adams, a former police captain who entered primary voting as the frontrunner, bested a crowded field of Democrats, including former New York City Sanitation Commissioner Kathryn Garcia, former presidential candidate Andrew Yang and civil rights lawyer Maya Wiley. -The Hill

    Adams will face Guardian Angels founder Curtis Sliwa, who sailed to an easy win over restaurateur Fernando Mateo in last month’s Republican mayoral primary, receiving 68.9% of the Republican vote.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/06/2021 – 20:05

  • Pelosi's Husband Bought Amazon Calls Before Pentagon JEDI Shakeup Sent Shares Soaring
    Pelosi’s Husband Bought Amazon Calls Before Pentagon JEDI Shakeup Sent Shares Soaring

    House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) disclosed from her ivory tower late last week that her investor husband, Paul Pelosi, made several now-profitable trades in various securities.

    For starters, Pelosi bought Amazon calls on May 21 when it closed at $3,259.05. Fast forward six weeks and great news for Amazon after the Pentagon pulled the rug out from Microsoft’s $10 billion JEDI cloud computing deal (opening the door for Bezos), and the trade is looking great.

    That’s not all;

    Paul Pelosi on May 21 spent up to $250,000 on 50 Apple calls that have a strike price of $100 and that expire on June 17, 2022. He also bought 20 Amazon calls, costing up to $1 million, that have a strike price of $3,000 and that also expire on June 17, 2022. 

    On June 18, Paul Pelosi, exercised his Alphabet call options giving him the right to buy 4,000 shares at a price of $1,200 apiece, or $4.8 million. The Alphabet call options were originally purchased on Feb. 27, 2020. 

    The transactions were disclosed in a filing on Friday, July 2. –Fox Business

    According to Fox Business, “The speaker has no involvement or prior knowledge of these transactions,” adding “The speaker does not own any stock.”

    The Pelosis have at least one ardent defender in former Rep. Jill Long Thompson (D-IN), who insists that even though Paul is married to the House Speaker, it’s unlikely that he would “have any information that someone else wouldn’t,” adding “Members of Congress make it clear what their positions are on these issues and the fact that they’re working on a piece of legislation that would be public information.”

    On June 11, the House Judiciary Committee advanced several bills with bipartisan support which would limit the powers of FAANG companies. The bills, which passed through committee by slim margins, have yet to be voted on by the House.

    This is not the first time that investments made by Paul Pelosi have been made in close proximity to happenings in Congress. 

    Paul Pelosi in March exercised $1.95 million worth of Microsoft call options less than two weeks before the tech stalwart secured a $22 billion contract to supply U.S. Army combat troops with augmented reality headsets. 

    In January, he purchased up to $1 million of Tesla calls before the Biden administration delivered its plans to provide incentives to promote the shift away from traditional automobiles and toward electric vehicles. –Fox Business

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    Meanwhile, Congressional Democrats are going after Redditors who’ve banded together to squeeze meme stocks.

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    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/06/2021 – 20:00

  • Critical Race Theory Should Be Banned, And A Black Parent Explains Why
    Critical Race Theory Should Be Banned, And A Black Parent Explains Why

    Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

    The best case ever against critical race theory is in the following video, sure to go viral.

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    Partial Transcript – Emphasis Mine

    I’ve got two children her in the school district. It’s very apparent here by all the parents who have spoken, that this board and the school district is failing. More importantly, about Critical Race Theory, this theory was never meant to be brought into grade schools, high schools at all. 

    It’s actually taught in the collegiate atmosphere, more importantly, the legal portion of the collegiate atmosphere to see different laws through the lens of race from an ethics and ethical standpoint, not for grade schools and high schools.

    The problem in bringing it up at the high school and grade school level is we do not have the educators to properly teach the kids. 

    Instead, educators use it as their own agenda, to indoctrinate the kids to hate each other. And whether you believe that or not, the reality is that is what’s happening. 

    Critical Race Theory is teaching us that white people are bad. That’s not true. That would teach my daughter that her mother is evil.

    You have an educator within your staff that has pulled my daughter aside and said ‘You’re a minority. So you know better than to engage in certain things.’ [Audience gasps, wow, whoa, etc.]

    When I brought this to the school’s attention, nothing happened to that educator. Instead, my daughter was brought in, and she was ridiculed. [Again audience gasps].

     So my question is now, with Critical Race Theory being brought in, what is your criteria to educate the educators? And who are you to educate my children, or any of our children on life issues? That’s our job.

    Your job is to teach them math and science. Our job is to teach them about life. 

    I believe racial issues and tensions across the US are nowhere near what they used to be decades ago. Do we have a long way to go? Sure. Do we have individuals who need to be taught? Absolutely. 

    But people here do not look at me as a black man. They look at me as a man coming in front of you, addressing an issue that we all are passionate about. [applause!] 

    End Transcript

    That video is not an isolated event. You can find dozens of articles.

    Furious Mother Slams School Board 

    Mother Demolishes School Board Forcing Critical Race Theory

    To Promote Equality, California Proposes a Ban on Advanced Math Classes

    Please note To Promote Equality, California Proposes a Ban on Advanced Math Classes

    Adversity scores are the Latest in Dumbing Down of US Education.

    Bill Maher on Critical Race Theory

    Even the Left has serious issues. 

    In a must see video, comedian Bill Maher blast wokes who have no sense of massive progress on many liberal and Libertarian fronts.

    To play the video and for a partial transcript as well, please see The Woke Liberals Have a Bad Case of Progressophobia

    Backlash Coming

    This should have a major impact in the midterm elections, and I believe it will if Republican can put aside infighting.

    CRT is not (or at least should not) be a Left vs Right issue. Instead, it is a right vs wrong issue. 

    School boards, typically liberal progressives, are on the very wrong side of this debate.

    “Your job is to teach them math and science. Our job is to teach them about life!”

    Indeed. And a huge majority of the public would agree. Unfortunately, grade school kids are caught in the crossfire of Woke indoctrination and a Woke debate and that belongs in a collegiate law class.

    *  *  *

    Like these reports? I hope so, and if you do, please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/06/2021 – 19:40

  • The Peak Is In For Global Manufacturing PMI
    The Peak Is In For Global Manufacturing PMI

    Two months ago, a forward-looking Wall Street responded to the Bank of America Fund Manager Survey for the month of May, and concluded that the peak of the post-covid expansion was now behind us, whether looking at growth expectations…

    … profit margins expectations (46% to 26%)…

    … capex spending plans (54% to 51%)…

    … and inflation (93% to 83%).

    Of course, these “forward-looking” expectations needed some hard data validation which they got today when the latest data confirmed that the Global Manufacturing PMI has now peaked.

    As DB’s Frances Yared writes, the Global Manufacturing PMI was running ahead of leading indicators (key exporters such as Taiwan, Chile and South Korea). Well, the latter indicators had been consistent with the Global PMI Manufacturing at 54 rather than the 56 observed at the peak last month. But the reversal is finally here, and the latest Global PMI print declined by 0.5pt in July and, based on the aforementioned leading indicators, should decline another 1.5 points.

    The good news: as Yared notes, a PMI at 54 would still be very high from a historical perspective and leading indicators are so far stable. “Thus, the decline from the peak should be seen as a correction from an overshoot rather than a trend at this stage.”

    The bad news: today’s peak PMI data definitively confirms that we are now “mid-cycle” as Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson has been warning for months.

    For those wondering what that means for market, we republish some of our observations from our May 12 article looking at just this question:

    Just days after Morgan Stanley said that it “rather than getting excited about the reopening, we are getting more concerned” pointing to the infamously volatile mid-cycle transition, when the the peak rate of change reverses and execution risk jumps as visualized by the following chart showing headline Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index and Prices Paid component…

    … BofA has jumped on board the mid-cycle bandwagon, and in a note from the bank’s chief quant, Savita Subramanian, she writes that the bank’s regime Indicator rose to highs seen only once before in the last 30+ years: in Feb. 2004, after which Mid-Cycle continued for four more months.

    Does this mean that the end-cycle – which is quickly followed by recession – is imminent?

    According to the BofA quant, “historically Mid-Cycle has lasted for 12 months, but today we are just four months in. Thus, the current phase could extend at least through summer and potentially beyond.”

    What does this mean for investing? Mid-Cycle is usually accompanied by rising interest rates and capex: thus valuation metrics which account for the firm value to incorporate more expensive debt, and profitability that reflects capex are important. P/E and Price to Book are less effective, but EV/EBITDA has outperformed the index 75% of the time in this phase (and today EV/EBITDA positioning is close to a record underweight.) Additionally, “quality value” tends to outperform “deep value” in this phase. And if we have reached peak stimulus, quality should outperform from here to the detriment of other factors.

    Picking up on this, Leuthold Group’s Jim Paulsen, who has analyzed bull cycles of the past 40 years, notes that while every bull market is different, “the pattern they follow is usually the same: a strong run at the start of the cycle, a period of hesitancy that lasts a year or more, then the resumption of the advance”, or a crash, of course, assuming no Fed bailouts. While we don’t know what the endgame is, we agree with Bloomberg that are now “at the pause stage of the current cycle right now.”

    In any case, describing the Mid-Cycle, or as he calls it the Revaluation phase, Paulson notes that’s when corporate performance continues to improve but valuations get stretched and the pressure of rising yields intensifies. That’s when stocks go nowhere for a year at best or decline by low-double digits at worst. And sure enough, as Bloomberg notes, the checklist of signals that led to prior swoon periods is here: rising valuations that have almost doubled from a trough, improving corporate performance and yields.

    Some examples:

    • In 1982, the stock market posted a sharp rally as profits and bond yields continued to decline. A 15% correction into mid-1984 followed, leaving the S&P 500 essentially flat for that year. The next year, earnings started to recover and bond yields went up.
    • In 1992, earnings and yields declined heading into the 1994 mid-cycle, when the S&P fell by nearly 10% in early 1994 and stayed flat until 1995.
    • A similar pattern occurred in 2004, when the S&P 500’s multiple declined from 22 times earnings in late 2003, to less than 17 times by late 2004.
    • After an initial recovery in the spring of 2009, the S&P 500 stumbled as stocks underwent a 15% correction in the second quarter of 2010.

    Finally, how did economically-sensitive sectors fare during the revaluation period? As Bloomberg notes, small-cap stocks gained in three out of four pause stages, adding on average 5.6%, after falling more than 7% during a pause period between the spring of 1983 and summer of 1984. Cyclicals gained in two out of four instances — in 2004 and 2010, when they posted a modest advance that exceeded the broader peers.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/06/2021 – 19:20

  • A "Great Listener And Collaborator": Stalinist Professor Under Fire For Praising Genocidal Soviet Leader
    A “Great Listener And Collaborator”: Stalinist Professor Under Fire For Praising Genocidal Soviet Leader

    Authored by Jonathan Turley,

    Asatar Bair, an assistant professor of economics at Riverside City College, is under fire this week for his praise of one of the most blood-soaked, tyrannical figures in history: Joseph Stalin.  Bair is a self-described Marxist but most communists draw a line well clear of Stalin who was responsible for killing millions. As will come as little surprise to many on this blog, I strongly support Bair’s right to espouse his Stalinist views even though I find them utterly absurd and offensive.

    In tweets, Bair expressed his support for Stalin as “a very successful revolutionary, a great contributor to Marxist theory” and “one of the great leaders of the 20th [Century].”  He added Stalin was also a “great listener and collaborator during discussions.”

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    He may also have been a great dancer . . . in between sending millions to their deaths, murdering opponents, and destroying any semblance of freedom. Yet, Bair also heaped praise in tweets for the Chinese Communist Party.

    His Stalinist support is due to what he sees as tremendous improvements of health care for citizens.

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    Yet, Bair ignores the millions who were killed. The Stalin health care plan was a bit more lethal for them. Certainly Leon Trotsky found Stalin’s ice-axe remedies less than optimal. He also ignores that there were improvements throughout the industrial world after World War II and that such changes could have occurred without Stalin. Indeed, Stalin is blamed for a series of moronic plans that devastated the Soviet agriculture and economy due to his one-man rule.

    Putting aside the millions who were killed or sent to Siberia, consider just the Soviet famine of 1932-33 which killed many millions, including an estimate of 7.5 million in the Ukrainian population alone. Stalin ordered the eradication of the wealthy peasant or “Kulak” class. It wiped out agricultural production. The life expectancies of the millions who died was hardly a victory for the working class or a model of public health policy.  He has been accused of mass murder and genocide.

    Stalin was also responsible for leaving his country vulnerable to the German invasion after he conspired with Hitler as an ally against other countries. Stalin’s purges included wiping out the officer corp, leaving the Soviet Army without sufficient leadership and experience. When Hitler betrayed him, the Soviet Army effectively collapsed in disarray. Tens of millions were killed by the end of the war.

    Stalin relished murder on a grand scale. He famously stated “The death of one man is a tragedy. The death of millions is a statistic.” His health care plan was summed up in his declaration that “death is the solution to all problems. No man – no problem.”

    Nevertheless, Riverside college district’s Chancellor Wolde-Ab Isaac told Fox News that while Bair’s “statements and ideas may be unpopular or even controversial, his right to express himself is constitutionally protected.” That is absolutely correct.

    My only concern, again, is the consistency of universities in protecting controversial speakers on the left as opposed to those on the right. I have defended faculty who have made similarly disturbing comments denouncing policecalling for Republicans to suffer,  strangling police officerscelebrating the death of conservativescalling for the killing of Trump supporters, supporting the murder of conservative protesters and other outrageous statements. These comments were not protested as creating an “unsafe environment” and were largely ignored by universities. However, professors and students are routinely investigated, suspended, and sanctioned for countervailing views.

    As we have previously discussed (with an Oregon professor and a Rutgers professor), there remains an uncertain line in what language is protected for teachers in their private lives. The efforts to fire professors who voice dissenting views on various issues including an effort to oust a leading economist from the University of Chicago as well as a leading linguistics professor at Harvard and a literature professor at Penn. Sites like Lawyers, Guns, and Money feature writers like Colorado Law Professor Paul Campus who call for the firing of those with opposing views (including myself).  Such campaigns have targeted teachers and students who contest the evidence of systemic racism in the use of lethal force by police or offer other opposing views in current debates over the pandemic, reparations, electoral fraud, or other issues.

    A conservative North Carolina professor  faced calls for termination over controversial tweets and was pushed to retire. Dr. Mike Adams, a professor of sociology and criminology, had long been a lightning rod of controversy. In 2014, we discussed his prevailing in a lawsuit that alleged discrimination due to his conservative views.  He was then targeted again after an inflammatory tweet calling North Carolina a “slave state.”  That led to his being pressured to resign with a settlement. He then committed suicide. We are approaching the one year anniversary of his death.

    Riverside College should be praised for its support of free speech for Bair. He is part of a diversity of opinion that should be cherished on college campuses. While Stalin was a tyrant to killed those with opposing views, we value such freedoms.

    The question is whether such tolerance would be shown those on the other end of the political spectrum.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/06/2021 – 19:00

  • The Central Banks New Mandate: Social Justice, Race, Gender Issues, Climate Change And Inequality
    The Central Banks New Mandate: Social Justice, Race, Gender Issues, Climate Change And Inequality

    One upon a time, when central bank “independence” first materialized – even though as we have noted in the past central banks are anything but independent (see “Who Owns The World’s Central Banks“)…

    Source: Based on de Kock (1965), Rossouw (2018) and information from central banks websites

    … their mandate was to control inflation and generally this was their absolute priority.

    However, as DB’s Jim Reid writes today, recent years have seen central banks increasingly enter the debate on numerous other topics including fiscal policy, social justice, race, gender issues, climate change and inequality.

    Enter Reid’s “chart of the day”, which shows a snapshot of this in terms of mentions of inequality over time in speeches from developed market central bank officials.

    As Reid says, while “these are all admirable and crucial topics to discuss and could help make the world a better place” it does however show “how central bank power and influence has changed and also how they seem to be giving governments cover to spend on these issues.”

    He also adds that this is one of the reasons an increasingly vocal minority of the DB Research staff thinks inflation is more likely going forward (see DB’s thoughts on why Inflation Is About To Explode “Leaving Global Economies Sitting On A Time Bomb“). As Reid concludes, governments want to spend more to deal with the issues above and central banks seem increasingly comfortable to support them in that aim. As a result, co-ordinated monetary and fiscal policy is more likely going forward. It’s also time to ask just who elected these “independent” central bankers, and demand independence from their ideological bias.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/06/2021 – 18:40

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