Today’s News 7th September 2021

  • Heads Of Major German Auto Manufacturers Say Semi Shortage "May Not Just Disappear" In 2022
    Heads Of Major German Auto Manufacturers Say Semi Shortage “May Not Just Disappear” In 2022

    As if the auto industry needed more bad news about the ongoing semiconductor bottleneck, heads of major German automakers are speaking out and predicting that the shortage may not just disappear in 2022. 

    Volkswagen Chief Executive Officer Herbert Diess said on Bloomberg TV last week: “Probably we will remain in shortages for the next months or even years because semiconductors are in high demand. The internet of things is growing and the capacity ramp-up will take time. It will be probably a bottleneck for the next months and years to come.”

    Ola Kallenius at Daimler and Oliver Zipse of BMW also added to the pessimism. Kallenius said that the shortage “may not entirely go away” in 2022, according to Bloomberg. Zipse said there could be another 6 to 12 months left in the shortage.

    Kallenius noted that some are holding out hope for the shortage to let up in the fourth quarter. However, he also predicts that a “structural” demand issue will affect the industry in 2022. 

    Deiss said dealing with the Covid outbreak in Malaysia comes first, and that it may resolve “toward the end of this month, probably next month, and then recover in the last quarter of this year.” 

    Recall, we wrote days ago about how the Delta variant was stinging production in Malaysia. Malaysia is home to names like Infineon Technologies AG, NXP Semiconductors NV and STMicroelectronics NV, who all have operating plants in the country. With Covid infections soaring locally, plans for lifting lockdowns and re-opening production look as though they could fall by the wayside, according to Bloomberg.

    Daily infections are up to 20,000 per day, up from just 5,000 per day in late June. 

    Just last week, Ford cited “a semiconductor-related part shortage as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic in Malaysia” as a reason for temporarily suspending production at one U.S. plant. 

    Malaysian companies were allowed to operate at 60% of capacity during June lockdowns and they will be able to move to 100% capacity when more than 80% of their workforce is vaccinated, the report says.

    Despite this, factories have shuttered for weeks at a time for sanitation guidelines and the Delta variant is proving “difficult to stop”. 

    Samuel Tan, a semiconductor analyst with Kenanga Investment Bank, told Bloomberg: “This could be very disruptive for Infineon and other companies that have plants of a few thousand workers.”

    Lead times for chips increased by more than eight days to 20.2 weeks in July, from June. It is the longest wait time since Susquehanna Financial Group began tracking the data. 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 09/07/2021 – 02:45

  • UK Ticket Sales "Flatlining" As Rebellion Against Vaccine Passports Grows
    UK Ticket Sales “Flatlining” As Rebellion Against Vaccine Passports Grows

    Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

    Ticket sales for events in the UK that could require vaccine passports are “flatlining” according to industry insiders, as the rebellion against the onerous system grows.

    The government has asserted that it will continue to pursue the policy despite multiple warnings that it will create a two tier society and put countless venues out of business.

    From the end of the month, people seeking to enter a nightclub in the UK will have to prove that they have been double jabbed.

    Proof of a negative test will no longer be accepted despite the fact that vaccinated people can still carry and pass on the virus.

    With nightclubs operating at a net profit margin of 15 per cent, and with around 25 per cent of young adults in the UK remaining unvaccinated, the industry faces potential financial ruin.

    The scheme is also expected to cover all venues where crowds of over 500 people gather, which includes some of London’s larger west end theatres.

    “There is a significant proportion of people who don’t want to use passports or are not vaccinated. It has settled at 20 per cent in France. We expect something similar here,” said Kate Nicholls, the chief executive of Hospitality UK.

    Nicholls noted that with the industry already struggling desperately as a result of lockdowns, the administrative costs combined with the loss of income as a result of people staying away will deliver “a further nail in the coffin of returning for many venues.”

    According to Michael Kill, of the Night Time Industries Association, ticket sales for events at the end of September and beyond are already “flatlining.”

    “We are seeing a lot of pushback from people who don’t want to come and have to show their health status on entry,” he told the Telegraph.

    Plans to introduce the passports are also going ahead despite Israel, which was the first major country to launch a similar scheme, now experiencing its highest COVID wave since the start of the pandemic.

    Numerous major European countries have also been rocked by weeks of protests and rioting against the measures, while many businesses in France have simply stopped enforcing them.

    As we highlighted earlier, the BBC is already reporting that vaccine passports are going to be rolled out with no mention of the fact that in a democratic society, such a scheme would require a Parliamentary vote.

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    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 09/07/2021 – 02:00

  • The Houthis Are Pounding Riyadh's Positions As Fighting For Marib Continues
    The Houthis Are Pounding Riyadh’s Positions As Fighting For Marib Continues

    Submitted by South Front,

    The escalation of hostilities in Yemen is a fact, as Ansar Allah are attempting to capture Marib city once again. On September 5th, the Houthis (as Ansar Allah are known) claimed they had attacked several targets in eastern, western and southern Saudi Arabia as part of a large-scale operation.

    A total of 16 missiles and drones were launched during the course of the operation. Specifically, eight Samad-3 suicide drones and a Zulfiqar ballistic missile targeted vital facilities of oil giant Aramco at Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia’s main oil port on the Persian Gulf, in the Eastern province.

    Two Samad-3 suicide drones and five Badir artillery rockets were fired at different facilities of Aramco in the western Saudi province of Makkah as well as in the southern provinces of Jizan and Najran.

    The Saudi-led coalition claimed that its air-defenses had interpreted three ballistic missiles and three suicide drones, footage allegedly proving this fact was released.

    Still, explosions were reported on the ground in several areas. The usual, regular Houthi attack includes just a few missiles or one drone, but this is much more significant, after a lull in a fighting in August. The previous such operation took place in March 2021 and also boasted more than a dozen missiles and drones being launched by Ansar Allah.

    Meanwhile, in southern Yemen’s Aden, which serves as the capital of Yemen’s puppet government, a Saudi-led coalition commander was assassinated by an IED that struck his vehicle.

    It is unknown who was behind the attack that killed Major General Musa Mohsen al-Mashdali on September 4. Suspicions either point towards the Houthis or the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC). The STC is conditionally part of the Saudi-backed coalition but mostly operates towards its own interest and those of the UAE, as such clashes of interests and of forces have happened in the past.

    A final option is that an ISIS attack left him killed, as a result of the poor security measures in the areas under Saudi control.

    Around Marib city, fighting is almost constant, with a back-and-forth on the ground between Ansar Allah and the Saudi-led coalition. Riyadh’s forces continue carrying out at least 10 airstrikes on various Houthi positions each day, while Yemen’s movement responds with frequent drone and missile attacks on targets within the Kingdom.

    Neither are quite successful, as the airstrikes usually cause no casualties, while Saudi Arabia boasts of intercepting most, if not all of the Houthis projectiles.

    It is now just a matter of time until various international organizations, as well as NGOs begin calling for the Houthis to halt their attacks as a “humanitarian disaster” is looming over Yemen each time Ansar Allah has any success.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 09/07/2021 – 00:05

  • Inside Lockheed's Super-Secret Skunk Works Factory
    Inside Lockheed’s Super-Secret Skunk Works Factory

    Over the years, we’ve mentioned Lockheed Martin’s Skunk Works Advanced Development Programs (ADP), formerly called Lockheed Advanced Development Projects, for its production of highly classified war machines. Engineers at this top-secret campus have developed the U-2, SR-71 Blackbird, F-117 Nighthawk, F-22 Raptor, F-35 Lightning II, and there are rumors of sixth-generation fighter jets in development. 

    Located sixty-two miles north of Los Angeles, Skunk Works in Palmdale, California, opened its doors to a select group of reporters on Aug. 10, for the first time in eight years, according to Air Force Magazine (AFM). 

    For defense and aviation journalists, having the ability to tour the state-of-the-art factory was equivalent to receiving a Golden Ticket to Willy Wonka’s factory. 

    Skunk Works opened its doors to a select group of reporters during a ribbon-cutting ceremony of a new factory on its massive 539-acre campus. 

    AFM quoted Skunk Works Vice President and General Manager Jeff Babione, who expects the new facility will build “fighters; intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance aircraft; hypersonic missiles; and other advanced projects, with possibly more than one project in series production at a time.” 

    Babione wouldn’t say if Lockheed would build Next-Generation Air Dominance fighters at the new plant.

    “This is a one-of-a-kind facility,” he told reporters, adding that: 

    One of four new factories to be opened by Lockheed Martin nationwide this year, it is an “intelligent, flexible” facility where there are “no permanent structures… there’s nothing drilled into the floor,” he said, allowing the plant to be reconfigured at will for efficient, flexible manufacturing. This flips the concept of most factories—such that for Lockheed Martin’s F-35 fighter in Fort Worth, Texas—designed specifically to produce a particular product.

    “We have flexibility about where to put what you’re building within this massive floorplan,” he said. “Rather than the work coming to the robot, the robot will go to the work.” Robots will be able to perform one operation “on one end of the factory in the morning, and a completely different operation at the other end in the afternoon. So you’re going to see a significant increase in automation.”

    The robots are commercial machines that Lockheed Martin will program. The software to make them do an operation “does not have to be resident” in the system, Babione said. This reduces cost because the same equipment is not dedicated solely to a particular function or program but has application to many projects.

    The robots “will talk to each other,” Babione added. “How are we doing with cutter speed? Cutter sharpness … do we need to change things? How is the quality of the holes [being drilled]?” Other innovations include advanced test capabilities for wire bundles and laser systems that can spot out-of-tolerance part thicknesses to the thousandths of an inch.

    “This will be the first factory at the highest level of classification but has Wi-Fi inside,” to enable the speed of information and allow the “men and women working in that environment” to know the status of the equipment and processes at all times, he said.

    The new plant is a final assembly factory with parts from other campus areas and vendors infused by robots to produce war machines. 

    Byron Callan, managing director at Capital Alpha Partners, told Politico one of the main reasons Lockheed showed off its new facility is to one-up its competitors: Boeing and Northrop Grumman, all of which bid for Air Force contracts.

    “So many of these things are being done in classified program settings,” Callan said. “It’s probably really just a way to say, ‘Hey, we’re competitive, we’ve made investments in some of these areas.'”

    The reporters were escorted around the new facility and across the campus, sometimes in vans that moved in an underground network of tunnels. About 85% of the work completed on the campus is classified. One project where Skunk Works is open and is not considered unclassified is NASA’s X-59 supersonic flight demonstrator

    Like other companies, Lockheed is revamping how they do business to continue advancing their capabilities, such as fifth-generation aircraft, drones, and hypersonic weapons, to keep America dominant on the world stage. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/06/2021 – 23:30

  • Goldman Cuts Its US GDP Forecast For The Third Time In The Past Month
    Goldman Cuts Its US GDP Forecast For The Third Time In The Past Month

    It’s official: while Q2 was the best quarter for the economy in decades, in Q3 it is now widely accepted that as we wrote a month ago, the wheels came off as a result of a “sudden negative change.”

    One doesn’t have to look too hard to find out why: between Friday’s catastrophic jobs report, the near record plunge in consumer confidence, the sharp contraction in retail sales where reports have missed expectations for 3 months in a row, whether it is due to the end of stimmies or the recent restrictions from the Delta variant, one bank after another took a machete, or in the case of Morgan Stanley, a nuke to their GDP Q3 forecast, with he bank on Thursday cutting its Q3 GDP to just 2.9% from 6.5% previously.

    It got so bad that the NY Fed on Friday unexpectedly announced that it was suspending its GDP Nowcast tracker, as the underlying numbers had gotten so bad volatile, the central bank’s economists were ashamed to use them for analysis as the product would have been ugly for the Biden admin:

    The uncertainty around the pandemic and the consequent volatility in the data have posed a number of challenges to the Nowcast model. Therefore, we have decided to suspend the publication of the Nowcast while we continue to work on methodological improvements to better address these challenges.

    But while the US central bank can pretend away bad numbers as if they simply don’t exist – or are “too volatile” – especially if their discussion would impair the fake recovery narrative said central bank is busy constructing, investment banks don’t have that luxury, and late on Monday – with the US on holiday – Goldman did precisely what we said it would do last week, and in a note titled “A Harder Path Ahead” published by its economics team, cut its Q3 GDP forecast for the third time in the past month. As a reminder, this is how Goldman reached the “startling” conclusion that the US economy was headed for a brick wall, which we first revealed to our readers back on August 13 when we said that “A Sudden Negative Change In The Economy”, something the big banks would then proceed to realize in the coming days, to wit:

    • On August 18, Goldman cuts its laughable Q3 GDP forecast from 8.5% to 5.5%, while expecting a “bigger inflation surge” (a clear warning that stagflation is coming), as “the impact of the Delta variant on growth and inflation is proving to be somewhat larger than we expected.” Yes, it’s al Delta’s fault that US consumers were all tapped out, as we warned one week earlier.
    • On Thursday, Sept 2, Goldman cuts Q3 GDP estimate for the second time from 5.5% to 3.5%, “to reflect the slower pace of manufacturing and trade inventory growth in July as well as the implications of sharply lower Auto SAAR in August.”
    • And then just 4 days later, on Sept 6, under the cover of the Memorial Day holiday, Goldman just cut its Q3 GDP forecast for the third time, and while the bank kept its Q3 GDP forecast at 3.5%, it is now starting to cut its outer forecasts, starting with Q4 GDP which it now sees at 5.5%, down from 6.5%, which means that on annual average basis, the bank’s GDP growth forecast is now 5.7% (vs. 6.2% consensus) in 2021 and 4.6% (vs. 4.3% consensus) in 2022, but as Goldman’s Jan Hatzius notes, “the annual average masks a sharp deceleration to below trend by end-2022.”

    While it hardly matters – after all, the bank will just find another goalseeked justification to cut its projections even more in a few weeks time as the economy slows down even more – here, for the first time, Goldman admits that it expects the Delta setback “to be brief”, while two longer-standing concerns pose challenges for consumption growth over the next few quarters:

    First, as we have been warning repeatedly in recent weeks, Goldman warns that “the fiscal impulse will fade sharply from its Q2 peak through end-2022.” Translation: no more stimmies. Fiscal support boosted disposable income to 9% above the pre-pandemic trend on average in 2021H1, but has already dropped off substantially. This decline will weigh on spending, though the impact should be offset by strong gains in labor income – which should keep disposable income modestly above its pre-pandemic trend- and by spending of excess savings built up during the pandemic, which amount to 18% of a year’s consumption.

    Second, consumers will need to rotate from a very elevated level of spending on goods back to a normal level of spending on services. Spending on goods will continue falling, though delayed purchases due to shortages of items such as new cars should slow the decline. But the rest of the service sector recovery will be much slower than the easy phase that followed vaccination, and with Covid fears likely to persist through the winter virus season, Goldman warns that it might take a while for spending to recover in still-depressed categories such as very high-contact and office-adjacent services.

    Bottom line, sophisticated sounding econobabble aside, simply judging by the frequency of its forecast “revision”, Goldman is totally clueless about what happens next and will thus keep revising its forecasts to comply with the narrative du jour. One thing we do know however is that stimmies are over, extended benefits are done, $2 trillion in excess savings have been mostly spent, profit margins are at all time highs and with stagflation on deck, can only slide, which means that either the Fed will soon do even more QE (it may of course taper first but that will simply accelerate the coming easing), or else we are looking at a major hit to both the economy and also the fake capital markets that now reflect just the Fed’s daily CTRL-P.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/06/2021 – 22:55

  • NATO Chief Blasts China's Nuclear Arms Development "Without Any Limitation Or Constraint"
    NATO Chief Blasts China’s Nuclear Arms Development “Without Any Limitation Or Constraint”

    At NATO’s annual arms control conference on Monday Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg urged China to join international arms control talks, which would bring it into nuclear limitations dialogue with the United States and other major armed powers. 

    “China is building a large number of missile silos, which can significantly increase its nuclear capability. All of this is happening without any limitation or constraint. And with a complete lack of transparency,” Stoltenberg said

    Getty Images

    He also said Beijing must take full responsibility for arms control, which it so far has refused to do. “As a global power, China has global responsibilities in arms control. And Beijing, too, would benefit from mutual limits on numbers, increased transparency, and more predictability,” Stoltenberg added. “These are the foundations for international stability.”

    While praising the US and Russia’s agreeing to extend their ‘New START’ agreement on limiting strategic nuclear arms, he underscored that future agreements will have to take into account rapidly developing and possibly unpredictable technologies, like A.I.

    Most Western estimates put China’s arsenal at about 320 warheads at the high estimate range, while the US and Russia each have over 1,500 deployed; however, the US is believed behind in terms of modernizing and updating its nuclear weapons systems, including ICBM capabilities. 

    Earlier this year the Pentagon briefed Congress on the faster than expected modernization rate of both China and Russia’s nuclear arsenals, strongly suggesting that Washington’s own modernization efforts have been outpaced

    Jens Stoltenberg, AFP via Getty Images

    Recall that during the prior Trump administration the former president had resisted quick extensions of landmark Cold War era treaties with Russia. The main rationale as expressed by the State Department at the time was that the old treaties didn’t account for new leaps in missile delivery technology possessed of Moscow and Beijing, and that they didn’t at all involve China.

    More recently, under the Biden administration the US disarmament Ambassador Robert Wood had accused China of “resisting” nuclear talks: “Despite the PRC’s dramatic build-up of its nuclear arsenal, unfortunately it continues to resist discussing nuclear risk reduction bilaterally with the United States,” Woods told a UN conference in May.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/06/2021 – 22:20

  • The Appeal Of Chaos: How Politicians & Pundits Are Misconstruing The Supreme Court's Order On The Texas Abortion Law
    The Appeal Of Chaos: How Politicians & Pundits Are Misconstruing The Supreme Court’s Order On The Texas Abortion Law

    Authored by Jonathan Turley,

    Below is my column in The Hill on reaction to the refusal of the Supreme Court to enjoin the Texas abortion law. The order of the Court expressly did not reach the merits and certainly did not, as claimed, overturn Roe v. Wade. The Texas law is not even the greatest threat to Roe. Not only is there a pending case on the docket of the Court that has long been viewed as a serious threat to Roe, but the White House and the House of Representatives are threatening immediate actions that could also create new challenges for pro-choice litigants.

    Here is the column:

    It is often said that “in the midst of chaos, there is opportunity.” Widely attributed to Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu, that saying came to mind when President Biden declared this week that the Supreme Court “unleashed unconstitutional chaos” by declining to enjoin a Texas abortion law. In this self-described chaos, Democratic leaders moved to renew efforts to pack the court with a liberal majority, end the filibuster and federalize abortion laws.

    The problem with chaos, however, is that it can be easier to fuel than control. Indeed, Democrats may undermine abortion rights with plans for ill-conceived federal regulations and legislation.

    Just before midnight on Wednesday, the Supreme Court voted 5-4 not to grant an emergency injunction of a Texas law allowing citizens to enforce a highly restrictive abortion law. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) promptly declared that the court “overturned” Roe v. Wade, and she demanded immediate action; many media flogged the same narrative that conservative justices killed Roe in a midnight attack.

    Both were legally and factually wrong.

    The Texas law was enacted in May — but challengers waited until shortly before it was to take effect on Sept. 1 to demand emergency court intervention. It was a gamble that backfired when the court refused to intervene. However, the decision neither upheld Texas’s law nor reversed Roe.

    Not only was the court’s order removed from the actual merits of the law, but the majority expressly acknowledged that “the applicants now before us have raised serious questions regarding the constitutionality of the Texas law at issue.” The rejection of the injunction was because the challengers are suing a state judge and clerk who are not actually tasked with enforcing the law. They were virtually randomly selected in a challenge that seemed more improvisational than procedural. The majority stated that “federal courts enjoy the power to enjoin individuals tasked with enforcing laws, not the laws themselves.” Even in his dissent, Chief Justice John Roberts admitted it is unclear “whether, under existing precedent, this Court can issue an injunction against state judges asked to decide a lawsuit under Texas’s law.”

    It also is untrue that the court’s decision prevents the law from being challenged. The law can — and will — be challenged in both state and federal courts. (Indeed, it has already been enjoined by a state judge). If anyone seeks to use this law, it will be challenged and likely expedited on review. Moreover, lower courts are likely to find the law unconstitutional under existing law.

    The law’s drafters knew that setting the cutoff date before “viability” would conflict with the case law building on Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. CaseyIt was designed to force a new review by the Supreme Court, the only body that can set aside or reverse its prior rulings.

    Future abortion rights do not run through Texas or Congress. Challenges to the Texas law will take months. But the most immediate threat to Roe is already on the docket.

    When Texas was enacting its law in May, the Supreme Court accepted a Mississippi case with a fundamental challenge in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization. The case was accepted for one unambiguous question: “whether all pre-viability prohibitions on elective abortions are unconstitutional.” That case will allow the court a direct, clear case to reconsider the basis for abortion. The final decision in Dobbs will likely long precede any final decision on Texas’s law.

    Of course, in some ways, the legacy of Roe is one of chaos.

    After that decision in 1973, there were widespread protests.

    Indeed, the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg was a critic of Roe who saw it as too sweeping in supplanting state laws. She later blamed the case for reversing the trend toward more pro-choice states as the issue became a national political rallying cry.

    Ginsburg’s criticism is reflected in polls showing the country still deeply divided on the issue; Gallup’s most recent polling shows 49 percent for to 47 percent against abortion — largely unchanged from 2019, when it showed 49 percent to 46 percent. (Notably, the number of citizens who want to see Roe overturned is lower.)

    It is not just citizens but jurists and legal experts too who remain divided. For 50 years, the court has faced close votes on the issue. In 1989, a fractured court upheld a restrictive Missouri abortion law in Webster v. Reproductive Health Services. In 1992, Roe was barely saved by a simple plurality of the court in Planned Parenthood v. Casey. In 2000, a 5-4 vote in Stenberg v. Carhart struck down a partial-birth abortion law in Nebraska. But in 2007, the court voted 5-4 to uphold a ban on partial-birth abortion.

    Throughout this history, when abortion rights were upheld by a core of five liberal justices, it was called pure constitutionalism. Now, when a core of conservative justices threatens such rights, it is called pure chaos. When the court voted for pro-choice litigants, it was deemed “balanced.” Now, with a possible majority willing to curtail such rights, Biden is calling for action to “restore balance” to the court.

    That brings us to the pledge by Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) to codify Roe. Pelosi denounced the “Supreme Court’s cowardly, dark-of-night decision to uphold a flagrantly unconstitutional assault on women’s rights and health.” Putting aside that there was no vote on the merits of the law, Pelosi could be creating an opportunity for pro-life advocates in such a move. The House already has moved to federalize elections. This move could effectively federalize abortions if it mandated a single standard for abortions.

    Roe affirmed a federal constitutional right to an abortion. Yet the court has always recognized that states continue to exercise authority over abortion services subject to that constitutional standard. If the House just affirms the constitutional standard, it would be a meaningless exercise. Presumably, the House would federally enforce that standard, which could create a new basis for challenge. It could create additional federalism issues that might alienate some on the court, including Chief Justice Roberts, and improve the strategic position of pro-life litigators.

    Following a poorly crafted federal lawsuit with a poorly crafted federal law is hardly an improvement for pro-choice voters.

    Biden may magnify those problems by pledging a “whole-of-government response” to the court’s order. There is a real possibility that Democrats could lose ground in Dobbs. Moreover, the civil abortion provision may indeed be replicated in other states. However, the range of permissible state action is likely to be decided not by Congress but by the court, based not on a Texas law but on a Mississippi statute.

    Roe has long been the battlefield described by Napoleon as “a scene of constant chaos” in which “the winner will be the one who controls that chaos, both his own and the enemies.” The problem is that Biden cannot control that chaos any more than his predecessors and may, in fact, make it far worse.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/06/2021 – 21:45

  • "A Big Extended Family": Oil Boom Turns Tiny North Dakota County Into Nation's Fastest Growing Populace
    “A Big Extended Family”: Oil Boom Turns Tiny North Dakota County Into Nation’s Fastest Growing Populace

    Maybe someone should alert the Biden administration that oil and gas isn’t 100% evil after all. 

    In fact, the industry has singlehandedly turned around a county in North Dakota, making it one of the fastest growing counties in the country, according to AP.

    In fact, after the motels of McKenzie County filled up, workers looking for steady wages and steady work “began sleeping in cars, tents, trailers”, just so they could make their way to the county. Families followed, helping boost the county to “the nation’s fastest-growing county during the past decade”.

    “Our little town just blew up at the seams,” said resident Dana Amon. The empty space Amon remembers as where she used to ride her horses is now “mile after mile of worker camps, shopping centers, subdivisions, hotels, truck yards and warehouses”.

    The county has been growing non-stop over the last decade, despite the fluctuations in oil prices. 

    Crude produced in the county was up 1,800% from 2010 to 2014. Over the course of the decade, the county’s population more than doubled to over 14,000 residents. 

    The median age over the county is 30, down from 39 in 2010. Median household income is up 61% to almost $78,000 over the same period of time. 

    The locals and the “imports” have started to co-exist, a decade later. Yolanda Rojas, an Arizona, native who followed her husband with their five children a year after he got a job in the oil fields, told AP: “I tell the locals, ‘If you guys kick me out, I’m not leaving. It’s my town,’”

    Rojas saved enough money to open a Mexican restaurant at the same time Covid hit. People in the community kept the restaurant afloat during Covid by ordering takeout. 

    10% of the county’s population is now Hispanic and about 10% is American Indian. Oil was first discovered in the area in the 1950s,  but the transition to fracking helped unlock crude reserves in North Dakota that were once inaccessible. 

    Howdy Lawlar, who chairs the McKenzie County Commission and has been in the area for five generations, said: “I feel like we’re becoming a big, extended family. It’s a good thing.”

    Farmhand Charlie Lewis, who came for oil field work but stayed to work on a farm, concluded: “People come for the work and stay for the community. The only time I think of going back is when it’s 40 below.”

    You can read AP’s full writeup here.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/06/2021 – 21:10

  • World's Dirtiest Cities List Raises Issue: Why Don't Politicians Call Out China?
    World’s Dirtiest Cities List Raises Issue: Why Don’t Politicians Call Out China?

    Authored by David Holt via RealClearEnergy.org,

    Ponder this: A new tally of global cities’ emissions finds that the top 25 are responsible for 52% of the planet’s urban greenhouse gas emissions. Twenty-three of those are in China.

    New York City is the first American city to appear, at No. 26.

    Out of the top 75, just four other American cities are listed – San Diego, Houston, Chicago and Los Angeles – all of them ranked 41 or higher.

    In other words, the U.S. – including each of our major cities – is outperforming the world when it comes to emissions. 

    All this data begs a question of our elected leaders who say we have to do more for our environment, banking on the fact that many Americans hear “environment” and think only locally, as in their state or nation. The fact is that the environment – including carbon emission – is global, so what we do here matters but what happens globally matters as much, if not more.

    Unless we can use our U.S. innovation and leadership to spur other nations to make meaningful progress, then global environmental improvement will not happen. This is an indisputable fact.

    What we in the U.S. have been doing for the global environment is working, but trying to do more without the help of other nations will only hurt our economy and make life harder for families and small businesses – especially those in inner cities, on fixed incomes or at or below the poverty level. Many of have heard about environmental justice; well, energy justice is real and it has far-reaching consequences.

    Without a doubt, the U.S. must maintain its progress, which includes reducing emissions by more than any other nation for the last two decades – even as our record energy output made the U.S. the world’s largest producer of oil and natural gas.

    There are those who argue, as they always do, that “we must do more” to show American environmental leadership to the rest of the world. For one, we could start by touting our current successes, and not self-flagellate to please a narrow world-view that starts with blaming America and relies heavily on socialist principles.

    We are already leading the world in terms of environmental regulations and controls, and again, we’ve – by far – reduced our emissions more than any country year after year for more than 20 years. By 2025, we will be more than two-thirds of the way to reaching our targeted emissions reduction of 28% from 2005 levels under the Paris Climate Agreement, according to Bloomberg Philanthropies. Part of that is owing to the good work we’ve done in our cities to reduce emissions.

    Contrast this with the facts about China, which recently won plaudits from many in the “we must do more” crowd for promising to stop increasing emissions before 2030. While we’re cutting our emissions, China’s pollution by then will have surged an estimated 14%-25%. On top of that, China’s greenhouse gas emissions in 2019 exceeded those of the entire developed world.

    Say that again: more than the entire developed world.

    Those are facts, undisputed by even the most hardcore anti-business zealot masquerading as an environmentalist.

    When facts don’t add up, you can count on activists and allied political figures to turn to fear as a sales tactic. Just look at the about-face on natural gas. After talking up natural gas as a “bridge fuel,” the big-money environmental lobby turned on it and, struggling to find a plausible reason for the 180-degree turn, warned of calamity over methane. The obvious solution, they posited in a fact-free manner, was stopping natural gas production and transportation.

    Natural gas is in large part responsible for our emissions reductions, as is our more recent and growing wind and solar power deployment. All of this ought to be applauded, not derided. It’s all good for our families, small businesses and farmers, and our economy. Energy is fundamental to a modern life, and it is essential to a healthy economy and population.

    Yet the “we must do more” gang is silent on China’s rapidly increasing emissions. This comes while the U.S. continues to rapidly reduce our emission – including carbon, volatile organic compounds, nitrogen oxides, and many, many more.

    However, the U.S. anti-energy activists are not so silent when it comes to asking the American government to go easy on China.

    More than 50 environmental groups recently sent a letter urging President Biden to be less aggressive toward Beijing, because it could risk Chinese cooperation. The groups, with no apparent sense of irony, wrote that doing so would build a “global economy that works for everyday working people.”

    We applaud their notion of supporting working people. But attempting to force the United States to curtail its affordable and reliable sources of energy is not supporting working people. It is harming them and taking away energy that ought to be the right of every American and indeed, everyone in the world. 

    If we want a forecast of the future as advocated for by activists, let’s look at our recent history. Barely eight months since a new presidential administration took over, we have seen what constraining American energy production does, through a moratorium on federal energy leases and the shutdown of the Keystone XL pipeline. Just look at the higher gas prices, lost jobs, proposed tax increases, and rising inflation and try not to have a flashback to the 1970s.

    American families, farmers and small businesses all benefit from safe, abundant, affordable, reliable and environmentally responsible energy. Without energy, we face job losses, economic opportunities and, some cases, the loss of life when energy is needed but not there.

    Government policies ought to start with the principle of delivering energy reliably and affordably to homes and businesses. The policies advanced by elected leaders who are expecting Americans to get used to going without energy – think planned blackouts due to inadequate energy supply – or to pay more for it when they need it most are wrong.

    When political leaders tell us we must ban certain energy sources to meet our emissions reduction goals, we should ask them why. Ask them about what they are doing about other countries, before they ask us to send our electrical grid backwards to the reliability and affordability levels experienced in the developing world.

    Americans should demand reliable, affordable and environmentally superior energy. We must accept nothing less, and tell our leaders we are watching what is happening in the rest of the world.

    We cannot meet our global environmental goals unless others follow America’s lead, not the other way around.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/06/2021 – 20:35

  • 'AntiVaxMomma' Sold Fake Vaccination Cards That Got Verified In NY State Database
    ‘AntiVaxMomma’ Sold Fake Vaccination Cards That Got Verified In NY State Database

    In but the latest in the growing trend of fake vaccination card schemes and busts nationwide, a woman in New Jersey who was known to clients as “AntiVaxMomma” – which she goes by on Instagram – has been charged by police with offering false documents, criminal possession of a forged instrument and conspiracy.

    Police say she’s known to have sold some 250 fake COVID-19 vaccine cards over the past months for about $200 each in the New York City area. Communications were reportedly mainly done via Instagram direct messages.

    AP image of a prior fake card scheme out of California.

    The scheme may have been one of the more elaborate ones uncovered of late, given that customers could offer $250 more for someone she was working with to enter the card buyer’s name into a New York state vaccination database, according to ABC News. This would then grant the ‘fake’ card verification status if checked against state health systems.

    New York state police had busted the pair by setting up a sting, which resulted in delivery of a fake vaxx card

    A New York state police investigator who became aware of the scam a few weeks later tested it by contacting Clifford to order a fake card and to be added to the state vaccine database, prosecutors said.

    In July, the investigator said in court papers, he received a package containing a CDC COVID-19 vaccination card marked with the name and date of birth he provided and a cellphone screenshot showing that the information he provided had also been added to the state database.

    Prosecutors said that among AntiVaxMomma’s clients included staff working in hospitals, nursing homes, and other health facilities who were attempting to dodge vaccine mandates for such facilities. It’s also believed the recent public school teacher mandate to get a first shot by September 27 is further fueling the black market demand for fake vaccine documents.

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    The arrested woman, Jasmine Clifford, was said to be working with Nadayza Barkley, the latter who had access to state databases as a staffer for a Long Island medical clinic

    The case could suggest an increasing sophistication in how forgery and fake schemes operate, particularly given the conspirators had access to state shot records and could manipulate them from the inside. It appears the main reason they got caught was due to how prominently the schemers advertised the service on Instagram.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/06/2021 – 20:00

  • Sky News Boss Lambasts YouTube For Suspension, "Opaque" Guidelines
    Sky News Boss Lambasts YouTube For Suspension, “Opaque” Guidelines

    Authored by Daniel Yang via The Epoch Times,

    Claims that Sky News Australia is spreading COVID-19 misinformation are “frankly ridiculous,” according to CEO Paul Whittaker, who issued a stinging criticism of video-sharing giant YouTube, at a parliamentary inquiry on Monday.

    Fronting the Standing Committee on Environment and Communications, Whittaker questioned why the Google-owned tech giant could be an arbiter of content.

    “There is no expectation that our viewers agree with every opinion expressed by every host, guest, or panellist,” he said.

    “But it now appears commonplace to discredit any debate on contentious issues as ‘misinformation’.”

    “YouTube’s actions make clear that it is not a neutral platform, but a publisher selectively broadcasting content and censoring certain views, while allowing videos that are patently false, misogynistic, and racist to proliferate,” Whittaker said.

    “Why does a tech giant, YouTube, and faceless, nameless individuals backed by an algorithm, based in California, get to decide that holding governments and decision-makers to account is ‘misinformation’? Why do they get to decide what is and isn’t allowed to be news?” he said.

    Paul Whittaker, CEO of Sky News Australia appearing via video link at a parliamentary inquiry into media diversity on Sept. 6, 2021 (Screenshot)

    The committee is investigating the state of media diversity and concentration in Australia.

    The inquiry was launched following a petition spearheaded by former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd to investigate the influence of Rupert Murdoch’s News Corporation.

    In early August, YouTube suspended Sky News’ for one week for allegedly posting “COVID-19 misinformation,” issuing a “first strike” against the 24-hour news channel—akin to a warning under its three strikes policy.

    Lucinda Longcroft, Google Australia’s director of government affairs and public policy, told the inquiry earlier that the tech giant enforced its own code on COVID-19-related content, claiming to work with health and media authorities to combat false and harmful content.

    “Where there are videos that, without further context, assert that those drugs [ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine] are effective we remove them because of the danger and medical harm that could be caused to users,” Longcroft said.

    Over 5,000 “dangerous and misleading” videos were traced to Australian IP addresses and removed by YouTube between February 2020 to March 2021, including 23 videos posted by Sky News.

    Longcroft said Sky News’ content was removed due to violations of the code as well as two breaches of political integrity guidelines.

    However, Whittaker countered by saying that it was in the public interest for alternative drugs to be discussed, especially because no vaccines were available last year.

    A woman with a smartphone walks past a billboard advertisement for YouTube in Berlin on Sept. 27, 2019. (Sean Gallup/Getty Images)

    “Sky News Australia strongly supports vaccination. Any claims to the contrary are false and a blatant attempt to discredit and harm our news service,” he said.

    “It’s a scientific debate that continues to this day.”

    The CEO also said YouTube’s review process lacked transparency and was “incapable of compliance.”

    “Unlike other publishers’ policies, YouTube’s process for review and removal of content lacks transparency and a clearly articulated process which affords channel operators the opportunity to address concerns or to challenge an assessment prior to a suspension occurring,” he said.

    He claimed Sky News had attempted to seek confirmation from YouTube on whether historical content would trigger any further action but said no response was given.

    “With no transparency provided, Sky News took the proactive approach of removing a batch of videos all published during 2020 from online platforms to ensure ongoing compliance with YouTube’s arbitrary editorial guidelines,” Whittaker said, noting it was not an admission of failure to comply with YouTube’s regulations, but “merely an attempt to navigate opaque polices.”

    He also raised comparisons with authoritarianism.

    “If we’re saying that YouTube is the model that we want our regulator to abide by. That means we are saying they should be able to shutdown a major TV network with 30 minutes notice, with no complication, no explanation, no written justification, no procedural fairness. That to me sounds more like authoritarianism or a totalitarian state, rather than a liberal democracy.”

    Silhouettes of mobile device users are seen next to a screen projection of YouTube’s logo in this picture illustration taken March 28, 2018. (Dado Ruvic/Illustration/Reuters)

    Whittaker said it was “beyond debate” that YouTube should be deemed a publisher that selectively edited content for political and commercial reasons.

    “But unlike traditional media it does not accept any of the regulatory or legal burdens that being deemed a ‘publisher’ carries with it,” he said, calling for “vigorous debate” on treating YouTube as a publisher.

    Sky News has uploaded over 50,000 hours of content on YouTube and has garnered over 1.98 million followers.

    The channel has consistently covered updates on global efforts to track down the origins of COVID-19, some of which were initially dismissed as “conspiracy theories,” however, other news outlets have since recognised the viability of these explanations.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/06/2021 – 19:25

  • End Of Summer? Above Average Temperatures This Week But Cooler Weather Ahead 
    End Of Summer? Above Average Temperatures This Week But Cooler Weather Ahead 

    This week, the US Lower 48 temperature outlook forecasts summer is not over for some parts of the country. 

    For the week ending Sept. 11, cooling degree days (CDD) are estimated to be around 60 CDD, 14 CDD above the 30-year long-term trend for this year, which is approximately 44 CDD, according to new data from the NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS).

    For readers who aren’t familiar with CDD, it’s a measure of demand for energy needed to cool a building structure. It’s the number of degrees that a day’s average temperature is above 65F. 

    CDD is generally used as a risk management tool for agriculture, construction, utility, and other firms that hedge activities dependent on weather activities. 

    In NOAA’s weekly CDD forecast, the most significant outliers on a regional and state basis were: 

    Regional: 

    • Mountain: 89 forecasts versus 47 normal
    • Pacific: 74 forecasts versus 34 normal
    • West South Central: 118 forecasts versus 95 normal

    States 

    • Utah: 93 forecasts versus 21 normal
    • Nevada: 145 forecasts versus 75 normal
    • California: 86 forecasts versus 44 normal

    By the second half of the month, around 17-19, the US Lower 48 temperature outlook is expected to revert to the 30-year mean. Looking at it another way, temperature highs are expected to begin plunging in the second half of the month. 

    As temperatures are expected to drop later this month, forecasted heating degree days are also rising, showing that colder weather may force some Americans to turn off their air conditioners for the year and turn up the thermostats. This would imply a rise in energy and electricity prices.  

    Already, the search term “propane heater” across the US has reached a new 30 day high.

    So expect above-average temperatures this week, but realize that cooler temperatures are on the way, may begin as early as Sept. 17-19. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/06/2021 – 18:50

  • State Department, Then Taliban, Reportedly Blocking Private Rescue Planes From Departing Afghanistan
    State Department, Then Taliban, Reportedly Blocking Private Rescue Planes From Departing Afghanistan

    Several reports began to trickle in over the weekend about planes stuck in Afghanistan which are trying to evacuate stranded Americans and Afghan allies.

    In this satellite image taken on Friday, planes can be seen near the main terminal of the airport in Mazar-i-Sharif, Afghanistan.Credit…Maxar Technologies/Reuters

    While a ‘senior Congressional source’ told CBS News on Sunday that ‘the Taliban won’t let them leave,’ several new sources have come forward to blame the Biden State Department for preventing the flights from leaving earlier in the weekend.

    According to Fox News and former Trump admin official Emily Miller – both of whom have been in direct contact with Americans involved in a private rescue effort – including leader Rick Clay – the Biden administration put up red-tape roadblocks.

    The State Department is the sole entity preventing their charter flights from leaving Afghanistan,” one of the rescuers told Fox.

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    This is zero place to be negotiating with American lives. Those are our people standing on the tarmac and all it takes is a f****ing phone call,” one of the rescuers told Fox News. “If one life is lost as a result of this, the blood is on the White House’s hands. The blood is on their hands,” that individual said, adding: “It is not the Taliban that is holding this up – as much as it sickens me to say that – it is the United States government.” 

    That individual suggested that the State Department’s obstruction is motivated in part by embarrassment that private individuals are rescuing Americans that the U.S. government left behind

    Military command over Al Udeid Air Base in Doha, Qatar, have informed those seeking clearance to land that they must first go through the State Department to gain approval, an email reviewed by Fox News shows. 

    Clay has a manifest of 4,500 names of U.S. citizens, green card holders, SIVs and refugees trying to get state-side. So far, they’ve given the State Department 800 names for a first round of flights. Fox News has reviewed that manifest, which confirms Clay’s account.

    Clay told Fox News that his organization is “having problems getting permission” from the Biden State Department “to land on the return flight” from Afghanistan in a neighboring country. Fox News

    According to Clay, the State Department “is not allowing any private charters carrying refugees [to] land anywhere” in nearby countries, and has provided several “excuses” as to why – including a supposed lack of air traffic controllers and ‘radar issues.’

    “We still have Americans we can get out,” he added.

    The State Department, meanwhile, showed CBS News an email which allegedly says the flights out of Afghanistan can leave “if and when the Taliban agrees to takeoff.”

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    Former Trump admin official Emily Miller, who first reported the stranded rescue effort on Thursday, has been keeping a running blog of her direct communications with several individuals involved who are on the ground in Afghanistan, as well as provided a page with information for people who want to leave Afghanistan.

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    On Saturday, Miller wrote: “Sam in Project Exodus still says the planes aren’t leaving because the airline hasn’t gotten documents from the State Department for destination airfield. “I’ve been told things are stalled,” he texted me tonight.”

    There is no way they are not letting these people leave. They have no reason to detain them (other than money and negotiating leverage).

    With there already being internal fighting between Taliban leadership, Afghanistan bankrupt, inflation 80%, people starving; etc.; TB know they need legitimization and foreign aid. They are savages but they are not stupid.

    Here are the latest updates via Emily Posts News:

    Six planes Sunday — Status update from Sam, who is the only source that has been accurate throughout this saga!

    KAMAir is still grounded. I’m first on the list to call as soon as things get moving – so I’m told. I haven’t seen the news, so I’m not sure what’s being put out or if it’s helping/hurting.

    Nobody is actually sitting on the planes right now.

    I don’t have facts as to why the Taliban are delaying, but I’ve been told they want to verify manifests and don’t have the horse power to do so.

    My guess is they are coordinating with Turkey to help them run tower operations to activate the runway.

    Again, I’m drawing that conclusion by stitching several different sources together. As soon a people start getting up here, I’ll dig some more

    Six airplanes in the news— Today, the media elite finally decided to publicly report about the six charter planes and Americans that can’t get out of Afghanistan. I reported it first on Sept. 2 at 2:30 pm ET.

    The corporate media knew about the planes — at least since I reported it. They asked the White House and State Department about it. They were told information to keep “confidential”, and they obeyed the government.

    I spoke to the State Department Spokesman directly. His “confidential” information was not being withheld for safety of the people in the airport. It just shows that the government was incapable of getting Americans out of the country. The media elite withheld that from the public for that reason only.

    Money- Toward the end of last week, people in Afghanistan who need to escape started running out of cash. Today, Mark went to Western Union to send $350 to one of the Afghan Special Forces who he has worked with for years. Western Union told him that, as of today, it is no longer authorized to send any wire transfers to Afghanistan.

    It costs just $200 for airline ticket to fly his whole family to fly within the country to a safer city. But the Afghanistan military stopped paying its forces two months ago so they don’t have cash.

    Also, the banks in Afghanistan put a limit on ATM withdrawals to just $200 a week.

    Big picture— I went on a twitterant today because I’m so frustrated with the incompetence and lies from the U. S. Government. Click below to read the thread.

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    Follow along at Emily Posts News.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/06/2021 – 18:37

  • Aussie Health Chief: COVID Will Be With Us "Forever", People Will Have To "Get Used To" Endless Booster Vaccines
    Aussie Health Chief: COVID Will Be With Us “Forever”, People Will Have To “Get Used To” Endless Booster Vaccines

    Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

    Australian health chief Dr. Kerry Chant says that COVID will be with us “forever” and people will have to “get used to” taking endless booster vaccines.

    The New South Wales Chief Health Officer made the alarming comments during a recent press conference.

    “We need to get used to being vaccinated with COVID vaccines for the future … I can’t see COVID is not going to be with us forever,” said Chant said during a press conference last week.

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    “As a public health doctor we always want to have diseases go, to be totally eliminated, but that is not on the horizon in the near future,” she continued. “Booster doses and repeat doses will be part of it.”

    “I can assure you that the commonwealth government has purchased large quantities of vaccine into 2022 and this will be a regular cycle of vaccination and revaccination as we learn more about when immunity wanes.”

    In a separate answer to a reporter, Chant again asserted that people “will be getting vaccinated regularly” against COVID.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Given that Australians were previously told authorities “wouldn’t hesitate” to go door to door to carry out COVID tests, what’s to stop them doing the same thing for vaccines?

    As we previously highlighted, the infamously stern-faced Chant previously warned Aussies that they shouldn’t even be talking to their own friends and neighbors, even if they’re wearing a mask.

    “Whilst it’s human nature to engage in conversation with others, to be friendly, unfortunately this is not the time to do that,” said Chant.

    “So even if you run into your next door neighbor in the shopping center…don’t start up a conversation, now is the time for minimizing your interactions with others, even if you’ve got a mask, do not think that affords total protection,” she added.

    Australia continues to pursue a disastrous ‘zero COVID’ policy enforced via endless lockdowns that have characterized the country as a “prison island” with no escape anywhere on the horizon.

    Anyone who challenges the policy via protests faces fines of up to $11,000 dollars while police have also carried out home visits to people who merely promote anti-lockdown demonstrations via social media.

    *  *  *

    Brand new merch now available! Get it at https://www.pjwshop.com/

    In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch. I need you to sign up for my free newsletter here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown. Get early access, exclusive content and behinds the scenes stuff by following me on Locals.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/06/2021 – 18:15

  • NYC Home Made Out Of 21 Shipping Containers Sells For $5 Million
    NYC Home Made Out Of 21 Shipping Containers Sells For $5 Million

    It’s looking like the shipping container shortage is far more real than anyone could have imagined.

    That’s because a “green” house made of shipping containers in Williamsburg just sold for $5 million. The house is made only of 21 shipping containers, according to the NY Post.

    It was completed in 2016 after being commissioned by Brooklyn-based restaurateurs Joe and Kim Carroll.

    Containers were “cleverly stacked” to create a slanted shape, which gives the home its unique shape. 

    “To assemble the dwelling on the 25-by-100-foot corner lot, the architects placed three containers side by side, and sliced them at an angle before they cleverly stacked them together in a manner that formed the four-floor home’s slanted shape,” the site notes state.

    The home is 3,500 square feet and sports five bedrooms.

    The listing for the home says it sports “New York City’s last permitted wood-burning fireplace,” and that it also comes with two driveways and a garage. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/06/2021 – 17:40

  • Investigating The Mass Hysteria Over 1 Degree In Climate Change Since 1850
    Investigating The Mass Hysteria Over 1 Degree In Climate Change Since 1850

    Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

    Let’s discuss the Physical Science Basis for Climate Change and the media hype over the report.

    Inquiring minds are diving into the latest report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

    Please consider the Climate Change 2021 Report, the Physical Science Basis.

    Key Snips 

    1. Global surface temperature was 1.09 [0.95 to 1.20] °C higher in 2011– 2020 than 1850–1900, with larger increases over land (1.59 [1.34 to 1.83] °C) than over the ocean (0.88 [0.68 to 1.01] °C). The estimated increase in global surface temperature since AR5 is principally due to further warming since 2003–2012 (+0.19 [0.16 to 0.22] °C). Additionally, methodological advances and new datasets contributed approximately 0.1ºC to the updated estimate of warming in AR6  

    2. The likely range of total human-caused global surface temperature increase from 1850–1900 to 2010–2019 is 0.8°C to 1.3°C, with a best estimate of 1.07°C

    3. Global mean sea level increased by 0.20 [0.15 to 0.25] m between 1901 and 2018. The average rate of sea level rise was 1.3 [0.6 to 2.1] mm yr between 1901 and 1971, increasing to 1.9 [0.8 to 2.9] mm yr between 1971 and 2006, and further increasing to 3.7 [3.2 to 4.2] mm yr between 2006 and 2018 (high confidence). 

    4. In 2011–2020, annual average Arctic sea ice area reached its lowest level since at least 1850 (high confidence). Late summer Arctic sea ice area was smaller than at any time in at least the past 1000 years (medium confidence). The global nature of glacier retreat, with almost all of the world’s glaciers retreating synchronously, since the 1950s is unprecedented in at least the last 2000 years (medium confidence).

    5. It is likely that the global proportion of major (Category 3–5) tropical cyclone occurrence has increased over the last four decades, and the latitude where tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific reach their peak intensity has shifted northward; these changes cannot be explained by internal variability alone (medium confidence). There is low confidence in long-term (multi-decadal to centennial) trends in the frequency of all-category tropical cyclones

    6. Global surface temperature will continue to increase until at least the mid-century under all emissions scenarios considered. Global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C will be exceeded during the 21st century unless deep reductions in CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions occur in the coming decades.

    7. It is very likely that heavy precipitation events will intensify and become more frequent in most regions with additional global warming. At the global scale, extreme daily precipitation events are projected to intensify by about 7% for each 1°C of global warming (high confidence).

    8. It is virtually certain that global mean sea level will continue to rise over the 21st century. Relative to 1995-2014, the likely global mean sea level rise by 2100 is 0.28-0.55 m under the very low GHG emissions scenario (SSP1-1.9), 0.32-0.62 m under the low GHG emissions scenario (SSP1-2.6)0.44-0.76 m under the intermediate GHG emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), and 0.63-1.01 m under the very high GHG emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by 2150 is 0.37-0.86 m under the very low scenario (SSP1-1.9), 0.46- 0.99 m under the low scenario (SSP1-2.6), 0.66-1.33 m under the intermediate scenario (SSP2-4.5), and 0.98-1.88 m under the very high scenario (SSP5-8.5) (medium confidence).

    Changes in Global Surface Temperatures

    Key Snip Synopsis

    • Temperatures have risen a a best estimate of 1.07°C since 1850 due to man-made causes.

    • The sea rise between 1971 and 2006 was 1.3 mm per year. That’s 0.0511811 inches per year. 

    • The sea rise between 2006 and 2018 was 3.7 mm per year. That’s 0.145669 inches per year.

    • Under all emissions scenarios, global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C will be exceeded during the 21st century.

    Future Emissions Projections 

    Future Emissions Projections Table

    Future Emissions “What If?”

    • If by some miracle we follow the SSP 1-1.9 row in the table, the current best estimate is temperatures will rise anyway until 2100 by 1.4 degrees.

    • According to row SSP 2-4.5, if there is no further progress at all until 2050, temperatures would only rise an additional 1.3 degrees vs SSP 1-1.9.

    • Under SSP 1-2.6, there’s a mere 0.4 degrees difference from a very radical effort to cut emissions to 0 by 2050!

    Media Can’t Handle the Climate Truth

    Please consider the WSJ Op-Ed Media Can’t Handle the Climate Truth

    After 41 years of promoting a fuzzy and unsatisfying estimate of how much warming might result from a doubling of atmospheric CO2, the world’s climate science arbiter has finally offered the first real improvement in the history of modern climate science.

    The U.N. panel now says the dire emissions scenario it promoted for two decades should be regarded as highly unlikely, with more plausible projections at least a third lower.

    The report also notes, as the press never does, the full impact of these emissions won’t be manifested until decades, even a century, later. The ultimate likely worst-case effect of a doubling of CO2 might be 4 degrees, but the best estimate of the “transient climate response” this century is about 2.7 degrees, or 1.6 degrees on top of the warming experienced since the start of the industrial age.

    You might not wish this on your least-favorite planet, but compare it with media coverage of the U.S. National Climate Assessment in 2018, which paraded as a nearly foregone conclusion a temperature increase of 6.1 degrees.

    This week’s massive rainstorm in the Northeast reflexively was described as a consequence of climate change. Never mind that heavy rains always happened and, in any case, climate policy can’t be a solution for a New York City storm-drain system designed not to withstand a five-year storm, let alone a 100-year storm.

    Or take the U.S. government’s claim that July was the hottest month on record. Unmentioned in any news report that I could find, the margin of error in this measurement was 10 times as large as the purported difference over the previously claimed hottest month of July 2016.

    Code Red For Humanity?

    The words most quoted in the press weren’t found in the U.N. report or even its executive summary. They were the claims of a pair of U.N. officials that the report heralded a “code red for humanity” and, even more devoid of meaning, that “no one is safe” from a warming planet.

    Even if you believe the science, the one thing neither the media nor any panels like to discuss is costs.

    Economically Crazy

    Stunningly Absurd Green New Deal

    On February 7 2020, AOC unleashed her Stunningly Absurd “New Green Deal”.

    1. Upgrade all existing buildings in the US

    2. 100% clean power

    3. Support family farms

    4. Universal access to healthy food

    5. Zero-emission vehicle infrastructure

    6. Remove greenhouse gasses form the atmosphere

    7. Eliminate unfair competition

    8. Affordable access to electricity

    9. Create high-quality union jobs that pay prevailing wages

    10. Guaranteeing a job with a family sustaining wage, adequate family and medical leave, paid vacations, and retirement security to all people of the United States

    A think-tank led by a former Congressional Budget Office director has come up with a price of the New Green Deal: AOC’s Green New Deal Price Tag of $51 to $93 Trillion vs. Cost of Doing Nothing

    More $90 Trillion Solutions

    In 2015, Business Insider noted A Plan Is Floating Around Davos To Spend $90 Trillion Redesigning All The Cities So They Don’t Need Cars

    The $90 trillion proposal came from former US vice president Al Gore, former president of Mexico Felipe Calderon, and their colleagues on The Global Commission on the Economy and Climate. 

    50 Years of Dire Climate Forecasts

    Let’s review 50 Years of Dire Climate Forecasts and What Actually Happened

    1. 1967 Salt Lake Tribune: Dire Famine Forecast by 1975, Already Too Late

    2. 1969 NYT: “Unless we are extremely lucky, everyone will disappear in a cloud of blue steam in 20 years. The situation will get worse unless we change our behavior.

    3. 1970 Boston Globe: Scientist Predicts New Ice Age by 21st Century said James P. Lodge, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

    4. 1971 Washington Post: Disastrous New Ice Age Coming says S.I. Rasool at NASA.

    5. 1972 Brown University Letter to President Nixon: Warning on Global Cooling

    6. 1974 The Guardian: Space Satellites Show Ice Age Coming Fast

    7. 1974 Time Magazine: Another Ice Age “Telling signs everywhere. Since the 1940s mean global temperatures have dropped 2.7 degrees F.”

    8. 1974 “Ozone Depletion a Great Peril to Life” University of Michigan Scientist

    9. 1976 NYT The Cooling: University of Wisconsin climatologist Stephen Schneider laments about the “deaf ear his warnings received.”

    10. 1988 Agence France Press: Maldives will be Completely Under Water in 30 Years.

    11. 1989 Associated Press: UN Official Says Rising Seas to ‘Obliterate Nations’ by 2000.

    12. 1989 Salon: New York City’s West Side Highway underwater by 2019 said Jim Hansen the scientist who lectured Congress in 1988 about the greenhouse effect.

    13. 2000 The Independent: “Snowfalls are a thing of the past. Our children will not know what snow is,” says senior climate researcher.

    14. 2004 The Guardian: The Pentagon Tells Bush Climate Change Will Destroy Us. “Britain will be Siberian in less than 20 years,” the Pentagon told Bush.

    15. 2008 Associate Press: NASA Scientist says “We’re Toast. In 5-10 years the Arctic will be Ice Free”

    16. 2008 Al Gore: Al Gore warns of ice-free Arctic by 2013.

    17. 2009 The Independent: Prince Charles says Just 96 Months to Save the World. “The price of capitalism is too high.”

    18. 2009 The Independent: Gordon Brown says “We have fewer than 50 days to save our planet from catastrophe.”

    19. 2013 The Guardian: The Arctic will be Ice Free in Two Years. “The release of a 50 gigaton of methane pulse” will destabilize the planet.

    20. 2013 The Guardian: US Navy Predicts Ice Free Arctic by 2016. “The US Navy’s department of Oceanography uses complex modeling to makes its forecast more accurate than others.

    21. 2014 John Kerry: “We have 500 days to Avoid Climate Chaos” discussed Sec of State John Kerry and French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabious at a joint meeting.

    World Will End in 12 Years 

    Also recall AOC’s shocking revelation World Will End in 12 Years if we don’t act on climate change.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    AOC says that was “hyperbole”. Play the clip. She sure sounded serious, and got a huge round of applause to boot.

    Moreover, look at the absurd details of her plan that I outlined above. She sure acts serious as well.

    Cost Comparison

    The cost of following scenario SSP 1-1.9 would be in the tens of trillions of dollars if not higher. The alleged benefit is 0.4 degrees by 2100, phased in over roughly 80 years.

    The cost of following SSP 1-2.6 is arguably little. We may very well already be on a path to reduce emissions by 50% by 2050. 

    AOC wants an 80% reduction by 2030 and 100% by 2035. That is far more radical than SSP 1-1.9.

    It’s also economically crazy. I believe, anything beyond SSP 1-2.6 is economically crazy.

    New Prophets of Doom 

    Al Gore, AOC, president Biden, John Kerry, and Gretta are the new prophets of doom.

    Every decade has them. 

    AOC and Gretta are the new torch bearers.

    Mainstream media always goes along with the hype and the new torch bearers, no matter what the story.

    Code Red for the Opportunists!

    Code Red” is the drumbeat of of the progressives and those who stand to stand to benefit from trillions of dollars of spending thrown at the impossible idea stopping of climate change

    The media is behind every “Code Red” story because it attracts eyes. “Code Red” on Iraq led most into believing the nonsensical “weapons of mass destruction” story got got us into Iraq and Afghanistan for 20 years.

    If we follow this “Code Red”, costs of everything will soar and GDP will sink. 

    How to Avoid a Carbon-Based Global Trade War in Simple Steps

    There are two plans that address how to avoid a carbon-based global trade war. 

    In How to Avoid a Carbon-Based Global Trade War in Simple Steps, World Trade Online presents one idea. I present another, far simpler idea.

    Stagflation Threat of Climate Hysteria

    The Stagflation Threat of Climate Hype is very real but Congress holds the key.

    Only two Democratic Senators, Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona stand in the way of a real disaster. 

    Fortunately, Senator Manchin Seeks “Strategic Pause on Reconciliation” 

    Did Biden’s Green New Budget Just Die?

    Let’s hope so.

    Meanwhile, it’s futile to attack the science whether you believe it or not, so just accept it. 

    Instead, openly embrace the idea of 0.4 degrees by 2100. Alternatively, point to the chart of what happens if we delay further progress until 2050.

    Then attack the obvious economic stupidity of what those like AOC propose to do about it.

    *  *  *

    Like these reports? If so, please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/06/2021 – 17:05

  • United Nations Vows To Keep Afghan Aid Flowing After Meeting With Taliban
    United Nations Vows To Keep Afghan Aid Flowing After Meeting With Taliban

    After a meeting between top UN officials and Taliban leaders on Sunday, including Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar – who is expected to be Afghanistan’s next president, the Taliban said the UN has vowed to keep aid flowing to the country, which ultimately means at least in part to the Taliban itself

    Representing the UN side was Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Martin Griffiths. A Taliban spokesman said, “The UN delegation promised continuation of humanitarian assistance to the Afghan people, saying he would call for further assistance to Afghanistan during the coming meeting of donor countries.” 

    The UN’s Martin Griffiths with Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, via ANI

    “The IEA delegation thanked the UN delegation, assuring them of cooperation and provision of needed
    facilities,” the spokesman Suhail Shaheen added.

    The UN’s Griffiths at the meeting “reiterated the humanitarian community’s commitment to deliver impartial and independent humanitarian assistance and protection to millions of people in need.”

    The UN also urged the Taliban to uphold gender equality and the rights of minorities: “He emphasized the critical role of women in the delivery of aid and called on all parties to ensure their rights, safety and well-being. He called for all civilians – especially women and girls and minorities – to be protected at all times. Mr. Griffiths expressed his solidarity with the people of Afghanistan,” a UN statement said.

    “Now more than ever, the people of Afghanistan need the support and solidarity of the international community,” the UN added. 

    The UN statement called the humanitarian catastrophe still gripping the country after two decades of war a “grim situation” and described the future bleak outlook for children as follows: “…more than half of all children under-five are at risk of acute malnutrition as the second severe drought in four years threatens to spark further hunger in the months ahead.”

    The UN delegation had been invited to speak to Baradar in Kabul, also at a moment the European Union is considering reestablishing offices inside the Afghan capital for the purpose of EU-wide representation to the Taliban.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/06/2021 – 16:30

  • Economic War Comes Home: Portland Urges Imposition Of Sanctions Against Texas
    Economic War Comes Home: Portland Urges Imposition Of Sanctions Against Texas

    Via Southfront.org,

    The infamous U.S. sanction strategy in foreign policy now is now being used to ‘deal with’ internal issues

    The controversial Texas law, that bans abortions as early as six weeks is now in effect.  It was signed into law back in May by Gov. Greg Abbott. It was widely criticized not only by women’s rights advocates, abortion activists and abortion providers, but also by other states’ officials.

    The Portland City Council is going to consider to adopt an emergency resolution next week that will be aimed to ban goods and services from Texas, because of the new abortion law there.

    The council will take up the emergency resolution on September 8.

    On September 3, Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler claimed the intent “to ban the city’s future procurement of goods and services from, and city employee business travel to, the state of Texas.” 

    It should be in effect until Texas “withdraws it unconstitutional ban on abortion or until it is overturned in court.”

    “The Portland City Council stands unified in its belief that all people should have the right to choose if and when they carry a pregnancy and that the decisions they make are complex, difficult, and unique to their circumstances. Nearly 50 years ago, the Supreme Court ruled to protect safe, legal abortion. Late Wednesday night, the Supreme Court declined to block a Texas law banning abortions after only 6 weeks of pregnancy. This 5-4 decision allows Texas to outlaw an estimated 85% of all abortion procedures in the state.” – the mayor’s statement reads.

    He also called on other U.S. leaders join Portland’s effort to punish the state of Texas.

    Texas is one of the most conservative states in the U.S., which has not voted for a Democrat for president since 1976. The political split in the U.S. is deepening and the sides are close to using economic warfare.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/06/2021 – 15:55

  • Singapore Braces For "Exponential Rise" In COVID Cases As More Asian Countries Embrace Incentives For Vaccinated
    Singapore Braces For “Exponential Rise” In COVID Cases As More Asian Countries Embrace Incentives For Vaccinated

    Finally, after a long summer of tight restrictions on movement and frantic vaccination campaigns, the COVID outbreak that accelerated rapidly across East Asia appears to be breaking. Cases have been falling in Japan, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia (which has seen perhaps the most progress) for at least a week, while outbreaks in Singapore, the Philppines and Vietnam remain at or near their peak levels.

    With cases reaching a new daily peak, Singapore authorities – who have struggled to suppress the virus across the city state, where dormitories for migrant workers have proven potent staging areas for the virus – said they needed to “take quick action” to dampen the increasing likelihood of an “exponential rise” in COVID-19 cases, according to the Ministry of Health.

    Speaking to reporters on Monday, Lawrence Wong, co-chair of Singapore’s COVID multi-ministry task force, said the transmission rate of COVID-19 has to be slowed down.

    But first, Singapore will attempt to do so without going into another phase of heightened alert, he said.

    “What is of concern to us is not just the absolute number of cases, but the rate at which the virus is spreading. And that’s the reproduction rate, or R.”

    “Currently, the R is more than one. Cases are doubling every week. And if we continue on this trajectory of infection, it means we could have 1,000 cases in two weeks, or possibly 2,000 cases in a month.”

    Wong’s announcement comes three days after he said the country would start moving into a phase of “living with COVID” and there is no need to impose more restrictions, while also not immediately easing them, given the recent rise in cases.

    In other news, with the Paralympic Games now over, Tokyo authorities said they found 968 new coronavirus cases on Monday. That’s down by 947 cases (50%) from a week earlier. The number also shows cases falling below 1,000/day for the first time since July 19. However, the number of “serious cases” rose by 3 to 267. 6 of these cases were related to the Games, with volunteers set to leave on Monday. In all, 316 people have tested positive during the Paralympics, far less than what Japan saw during the main event.

    With the Olympics finally over, Japan’s Business Federation issued a set of proposals on Monday aimed at normalizing the nation’s economic activity now that vaccinations are making steady progress. They’re proposing that the vaccinated be excused from following quarantine lockdown rules. Then again, remember how well that worked out in the US?

    The Philippines government has faced growing pressure from the business community as cases have continued to rise. So, in order to try and experiment with a different strategy, authorities in Metro Manila, home to 13MM people, are preparing to try “localized lockdowns”, according to Nikkei.

    Metro Manila, home to 13 million people, has been under stricter community quarantine restrictions since Aug. 6 to fight the spread of the delta variant. The government has imposed stay-at-home orders, while businesses like salons and gyms have been forced to close and restaurants are limited to delivery service.

    The Department of Health on Monday also reported that the daily infection tally hit a record 22,415, the fourth consecutive day that daily cases have moved above 20,000. This brings the total cases to 2.1MM with 34,337 deaths. The department also reported increase in the 7-day moving average in Metro Manila. Guidelines for the lockdowns will be released Tuesday.

    Vaccination campaigns continue in all the aforementioned countries, with Japan and Malaysia administering the most jabs per day relative to their population.

    When it comes to offering more incentives to the vaccinated, a growing share of the ASEAN nations reopen their economies as the delta variant continues to drive new infections. Like in France and in certain parts of the US, vaccination status checks have become commonplace in Singapore. Indonesia and Malaysia are also hoping that more privileges for the vaccinated will help drive up vaccination rates.

    And as Singapore and its neighbors explore alternatives to economy-crushing lockdowns, some novel solutions are being considered – like Singapore’s new “robocop” that’s programmed to root out “undesirable behavior”.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/06/2021 – 15:20

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