- France's Lone Aircraft Carrier Cuts Mission Short Due To 40 Likely COVID-19 Cases
France’s Lone Aircraft Carrier Cuts Mission Short Due To 40 Likely COVID-19 Cases
After the American nuclear carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt was forced to dock in Guam while in the Western Pacific, unleashing a storm of controversy over what to do with its crew under urgent need of immediate quarantine — and now with at least 230 sailors confirmed for COVID-19 — another carrier’s mission has been cut short, this time belonging to a close US ally.
France’s lone nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, the Charles de Gaulle, will return home early from deployment in the Atlantic after some 40 sailors have been put under medical observation for coronavirus, the defense ministry said Wednesday.
French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle. AFP via Getty The Charles de Gaulle has also put the suspected cases in isolation, believing them likely sick with COVID-19, the French defense ministry statement continued. However, serious or critical illness aboard the ship has yet to be reported.
“The first cases showed symptoms recently,” the ministry said. “There are no signs of aggravated cases among the patients.”
“As of today, a screening team with test means will be sent aboard the aircraft carrier to investigate the cases that have arisen and to hinder the spread of the virus on board the ship,” the statement said.
“It was decided to bring forward its return to Toulon, initially scheduled for 23 April,” the ministry said.
Via French Navy/US Naval Institute The ship has a crew of almost 1,800 sailors and recently participated in NATO exercises, after which it was slated to return to the Mediterranean.
Specifically it was to continue France’s Operation Chammal in support of anti-ISIL missions in the Middle East, which has now been cut short.
No doubt enemies of the United States and Europe are taking note of the ease with which this virus took out multi-billion dollar state-of-the-art aircraft carriers, which up to now appeared unbeatable and unable to be thwarted from their missions.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 04/09/2020 – 02:35 - Himalayas Visible For First Time In 30 Years As India Lockdown Sparks Stunning Drop In Pollution
Himalayas Visible For First Time In 30 Years As India Lockdown Sparks Stunning Drop In Pollution
Authored by Elias Marat via TheMindUnleashed.com,
For many residents, the sight is something which they have never witnessed in their entire lives…
For the first time in 30 years, India’s snow-covered Dhauladhar mountain range has become visible to locals as a result of plunging pollution levels resulting from measures taken to check the spread of the novel coronavirus.
For many residents, the sight of the Dhauladhar Range—which translates to “White Range” and forms part of the Himalayas—is something which they have never witnessed in their entire lives, reports SBS.
Many have been eager to share their feelings about it on social media, including former Indian cricket player Harbhajan Singh, who wrote:
“Never seen Dhauladar range from my home rooftop in Jalandhar. Never could imagine that’s possible. A clear indication of the impact the pollution has done by us to mother earth.”
Never seen Dhauladar range from my home rooftop in Jalandhar..never could imagine that’s possible..clear indication of the impact the pollution has done by us to Mother Earth 🌍.. this is the view pic.twitter.com/laRzP8QsZ9
— Harbhajan Turbanator (@harbhajan_singh) April 3, 2020
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While anti-pollution activist Sant Balbir Singh Seeechewal told SBS:
“We can see the snow-covered mountains clearly from our roofs. And not just that, stars are visible at night. I have never seen anything like this in recent times.”
India, a country with upwards of 1.3 billion residents, has been placed under a strict nationwide lockdown from March 22 until at least April 14. The draconian move limits the movement of the entire population, and has been criticized by rights groups as well as figures from private industry who claim that the measure is arbitrary and damages the country and its economy.
On Tuesday, the Economic Times published an opinion piece by auto company executive Rajiv Bajaj arguing that “virtually no country has imposed such a sweeping lockdown as India has; I continue to believe this makes India weak rather than stronger in combating the epidemic.”
However, the lockdown—which shut down factories, marketplaces, small shops, places of worship, most public transportation and construction projects—has also provided a temporary respite from the suffocating pollution levels India is known for. No less than 21 of the world’s 30 most polluted cities are in the South Asian giant.
This is from Jalandhar. Dhauladar Range approx 200-250km pic.twitter.com/eHBdK3UW8x
— Aditya (@aapkaditya) April 5, 2020
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Seechewal explained:
“Not just normal traffic is off the roads, but most industry is also shut down. This has helped bring the pollution level to unbelievably low levels.”
According to CNN, government data has shown that India’s capital New Delhi has seen a 71 percent plunge of the harmful microscopic particulate matter known as PM 2.5. The particulate matter, which lodges deep into the lungs and passes into vital organs and the bloodstream, causes a number of serious risks to people’s health.
In the meantime, nitrogen dioxide spewed into the air by motor traffic and power plants has also fallen by 71 percent from 52 per cubic meter to 15 in the same period.
Similar drops in air pollutants have been registered in major cities like Bangalore, Chennai, Kolkata, and Mumbai.
Today’s best news should be that Dhauladar Range,Himachal Pradesh, Himalayas have started to be visible from Jalandhar ( approximately 300 Kms). This has never happened in our lifetime. Loving Views…… pic.twitter.com/D8IBeC4cao
— Shailen Pratap शैलेन्द्र 🇮🇳 (@shailen_pratap) April 4, 2020
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Jyoti Pande Lavakare, the co-founder of Indian environmental organization Care for Air, told the network:
“I have not seen such blue skies in Delhi for the past 10 years …It is a silver lining in terms of this awful crisis that we can step outside and breathe.”
India is hardly alone in experiencing a vast improvement of air quality in association with government clampdowns meant to curb the spread of the pandemic.
From China to Europe and even the notoriously smoggy Los Angeles, business shutdowns and restrictions on movement have seen similar falls in nitrogen dioxide concentrations.
Seechewal is floored by the sharp drop in air pollution. He said:
“I had never imagined I would experience such a clean world around me. The unimaginable has happened. It shows nothing is impossible. We must work together to keep it like that.”
Tyler Durden
Thu, 04/09/2020 – 02:00 - Russia Accuses Trump Of Trying To Conquer The Galaxy
Russia Accuses Trump Of Trying To Conquer The Galaxy
President Trump took a giant leap for America this week by signing an executive order outlining US policy on commercial mining in space.
Upon Trump signing the order, entitled “Encouraging International Support for the Recovery and Use of Space Resources,” which gives Americans the “the right to engage in the commercial exploration, recovery, and use of resources in outer space,” the Russian space agency, Roscosmos, accused the US of attempting to conquer the galaxy.
Roscosmos said in a statement Tuesday that “Attempts to expropriate outer space and aggressive plans to de facto seize the territories of other planets will hardly encourage other nations to participate in fruitful cooperation.”
Sergey Savelyev, Roscosmos deputy director responsible for international cooperation, insisted President Trump’s space ambitions were tantamount to space colonialism:
“There have already been examples in history when one country decided to start seizing territories in its own interests and everyone remembers how that turned out,” Savelyev said.
The Kremlin said colonization of space would be “unacceptable.”
This is not the first time Washington has outlined the need to harvest resources from space. In 2015, Congress signed a law permitting companies to extract resources from asteroids and the moon.
After 50 years, NASA has recently released plans of returning to the moon by 2024. On the other hand, Roscosmos has said it will land Russians on Earth’s only natural satellite by 2030. As it appears, both space agencies are locked in a moon race for this decade.
It becomes quite apparent at this point why President Trump signed the National Defense Authorization Act in late 2019 to usher in the Space Force — the newest and sixth branch of the military — the first since the last branch, the US Air Force was established in 1947. That is because resource wars on other planets or the moon could be the next domain in warfare.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 04/09/2020 – 01:00 - Paul Craig Roberts: A New World Is Being Born, What Will It Be?
Paul Craig Roberts: A New World Is Being Born, What Will It Be?
Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,
We are hearing from many that the world after Covid-19 will be different.
The question is: Different in what way? Will it be better or worse?
Elites are working to make it better for them, and worse for the rest of us. About that the evidence is clear. The Big Boys are being bailed out and their debts covered. Everyone else, except those already marginalized and without a recent work record and fixed address, got a month’s rent and extended unemployment benefits.
Big Pharma sees massive profits in the virus, Government sees more power to control
But the disparity in economic benefits is only a part of it. Powerful vested interests, such as Bill Gates and Big Pharma, are determined to vaccinate us all, and to control our movements with an internal passport called “vaccinated, health cleared” or other words to that effect. New tracking procedures and technologies are to be put in operation reminiscent of the “mark of the beast” to police the access of varous categories of people to various areas and benefits.
Experts point out that just as we cannot be vaccinated against the common cold, except perhaps for the past year’s version we cannot be vaccinated against Covid-19 and other mutating viruses, but the experts are already being shouted down. No expert opinion is to be permitted to stand in the way of vaccination profits.
Neither will nutrition and vitamin advocates be allowed to get in the way. Bill Sardi predicts that orchestrated scares generated by mandatory recalls of “toxic” vitamins await us. Big Pharma is determined to acquire control over vitamins and homeopathic remedies, and the FDA is Big Pharma’s likely pawn.
Vaccination has been elevated above cure, as Big Pharma and its shills such as CNN shout down the positive experience doctors report of successful treatments with Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin, and the effectiveness of Vitamin C, Vitamin D3, and Zinc in strengthening the ability of immune systems to fight off the virus. Big Pharma-influenced medical orthodoxy cannot get out of the box it has been put into. When new thinking and experimentation are needed, those capable of thought are hasseled and even blocked by FDA regulations and dogmatism.
The permanent government and its security agencies see in the population’s fear and confusion opportunities to put into place more tyrannical measures, more set-asides of Constitutional Rights, more impairments on free speech. The ability of freedom to resist oppression is ever diminished.
Various descriptions of the expected dystopia are offered on the Internet. But it does not have to turn out this way. It is up to us. Demoralized and fearful, we can accept more government power as we did after 9/11. Instead, we can collectively recognize the massive failure everywhere of Western leadership and construct a more liveable and sustainable society.
The failure of leadership is an opportunity for real change
CNN, the New York Times, and the rest of the controlled media tell us every day that President Trump represents the failure of leadership. But the failure of leadership goes beyond all the leaders of the last 30 years and resides in the system itself. Global, “self-regulating,” greed-driven, financialized, soulless capitalism cannot unite people into a sustainable community.
The failure of leadership resides in the long-term failure of leadership that made Western societies vulnerable by moving high-productivity, high-valued jobs offshore in order to raise corporate profits at the expense of domestic consumer incomes. It means the movement offshore of the ability to produce medicines, N95 masks, and other needed resources for national survival. It means dependency on foreign powers. It means the inability to function without massive imports. However you look at it, globalism is a death sentence. Its only advantage is to the rich, and the advantage comes to them in the form of cheap labor that swells their profits while it shrinks domestic incomes and the purchasing power of the population.
Without incomes to drive the economy, the elites provided loans and expanded credit in order to provide spending power based in personal debt to absorb the offshored production brought home to sell in American markets. The cost of college education soared as its quality declined. Education subsidies were cut and student debt substituted in its place. Inflation was understated in order to deny Social Security pensioners cost-of-living increases. Medicare payments to health care providers were squeezed down. The social safety net was ripped again and again. More and more people fell out, and homeless populations grew providing fertile breeding grounds for Covid-19.
The income and wealth distribution in the US went from fair to extremely unequal in a short time as the rich profited from the Federal Reserve pumping trillions of dollars into the prices of financial assets and from corporations buying back their own stock, thus decapitalizing the corporation while taking the company into debt, all for the temporary benefit of higher bonuses for executives and more capital gains for shareholders. The elites killed the economy for short-run benefits to themselves.
These destructive polices were the work of greed-driven short-term thinkers—people whose only vision was “I want even more.” And it is these unworthy people, not their victims, that Uncle Sam is now rescuing. The massive unpayable debt bubble that already overhung the economy is being blown larger. The Federal Reserve and the US Treasury are in the process of destroying the US dollar in futile efforts to save the super-rich from their own greed-driven misbehavior.
In place of this insane approach to the economic crisis, there is a sane approach. The bailed out corporations and banks are in effect being purchased by the government. Therefore, they should be treated as the nationalized corporations that they are. Once nationalized, the government, unlike the corporations, can create the money to pay the salaries and health premiums. The predicted 30 or 40 percent unemployment can be avoided. It is better to pay salaries than to pay unemployment benefits. The psychological difference alone is worth a vast amount.
The inability of the high-cost American private health care system to cope with the present medical crisis is apparent. A profit-driven health care system is the highest cost system to have.
Profit is built in at every level, which raises costs to levels that private insurance and Medicare refuse to reimburse. The result is shrinkage, not expansion of the system. Just look, for example, at the number of hospitals, especially in rural areas, that have recently closed.
Moreover, the coverage of a private system—and Medicare itself—has massive gaps. The resistance to a nationalized health service is ridiculous, especially as a nationalized service can coexist with a privatized one. Two are clearly better than one.
Nationalization has numerous benefits. It permits the large unwieldly enterprises, created, for example, by the mergers of giant banks like Chase Manhattan and J.P. Morgan, to be broken up and to reestablish the separation of commercial from investment banking. The repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act and the suspension of enforcement of the anti-trust laws were ignorant policymaking at its worse. Nationalization permits the government to bring home the offshored production of global US corporations and to put the US workforce back to work in middle class jobs. It is win-win for the American people.
Once the giant monopoly corporations are broken up, they can be privatized and returned to private ownership on a fair value basis, not on the giveaway basis of a pennies on the dollar sale. The money the government receives from their sale can be used to retire government debt.
For individuals, the life- and economy-suffocating heavy debts should be written down to levels that can be serviced by their incomes. Michael Hudson and I proposed a “debt jubilee” as a solution. Others have taken up our call.
Currently the Federal Reserve is socializing debt without writing it down. This is nonsensical as it bails out debt by expanding it.
In the US there is so much dogmatic prejudice against anything that has a tint of socialism, even as a temporary expedient measure, that thought and sensible action face strong barriers. If we cannot overcome these barriers, we are destined for far more difficult times.
Can community be restored or will nationality degenerate into the clans and tribalism of Identity Politics?
The greatest challenge we face is to restore the concept of community. There was a time when the United States was a community, a unique one as it consisted of a multitude of ethnicities. As each wave of ethnic immigrants arrived, they passed a test on the Constitution, learned the national language, and became assimilated into the American community.
This community has been destroyed by a variety of forces, the latest being Identity Politics. Identity Politics prohibits community by breaking down the population into mutually hostile groups by gender, sexual preference, race, and whatever classification can be invented or imagined. The result is a Tower of Babel. A Tower of Babel is not a community.
Instead of community, the US is a place where hatreds are cultivated with those claiming the status of victims doing the most hating and those assigned the status of victimizer being most hated. Initially, white hetereosexual males were the primary hate objects, but lately we have the transgendered hating the feminists who say that a woman is a woman, not a man who claims to be a woman. The transgendered attacks on well-known feminist leaders are violent in their language and are likely to progress into violent deeds. Various unassimilated immigrant groups battle each other over who controls disputed territory. Israel’s inhumane treatment of Palestinians has enraged Muslim immigrants against Jews. Violent racial attacks on white people are becoming more common.
For decades Women’s Studies have taught hatred of men, and Black Studies have taught hatred of Whites. This taught hatred is now supplemented by the New York Times 1619 Project. In place of assimilation, we now have mutual hatreds. How do we escape from this?
Perhaps the challenge from Covid-19 will force us to come together again in order to prevail over the virus, which in mutated versions might be with us forever. A coming together would be helped by an economic bailout perceived as fair rather than as the one-sided approach that has been taken. A debt jubilee provides the necessary fairness.
The elites by thinking only of their interests are in the way of the opportunity that crisis provides to bring people together. If we can’t be brought back together, we can forget about unity beyond the boundaries of our own victim or identity group. In place of community, we will be organized in clans of separate identities. The absence of unity at home will make us a sitting duck for enemies abroad.
We know what the Dystopian Wish List is. Can we come together with an anti-dystopian wish list as a mutually supportive community or have the elites succeeded in atomizing us into disparate tribal hate groups?
Tyler Durden
Thu, 04/09/2020 – 00:00 - NBA Wants Players To Cut Salaries In Half To Offset $1.2BN In Lost Revenue
NBA Wants Players To Cut Salaries In Half To Offset $1.2BN In Lost Revenue
Following the March 11 decision by Commissioner Adam Silver to suspend the NBA season, among the first professional sports leagues to take the drastic action after Utah Jazz players began contracting COVID-19, analysts predicted an immediately felt $1.2 billion loss in NBA revenue.
As Bleacher Report broke it down days ago, this translates to a $600 million hit to the players.
League leadership has been under pressure to compensate for the massive losses, first by the controversial question of obtaining returned pay from players, ahead of player contract expiration (or also roll over to the 2020-21 season).
NBA players Andrea Bargnani and Luis Scola file image, Getty. Amid ongoing negotiations with agents, the NBA is reportedly pushing for a 50% player pay cut to offset losses based on suspending all games this season, The Athletic reports.
The NBA Players Association (NBAP) meanwhile has countered with a 25% pay cut plan, to take effect by mid-May.
Like other sectors across the US, the league quickly felt the severe impact of coronavirus devastation:
The Philadelphia 76ers were one of the first organizations to enforce a 20 percent pay cut across the organization, but the team backtracked after criticism from fans, media, and people within the franchise.
On Friday, the Utah Jazz announced layoffs to non-basketball staff due to the coronavirus. Other employees agreed to reduce their compensation just so they could keep their employment with the team.
This after three weeks of games have been canceled thus far, with Commissioner Silver planning to decide on a season restart by the beginning of May, which could witness games played in strict isolation, only televised.
NBA Commissioner Adam Silver, via NBA.com Starting two weeks ago it was announced top NBA executives, including Adam Silver, would take a 20% pay cut.
This also as teams began furloughing much of their staff, especially non-basketball personnel, such as logistics and marketing employees.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/08/2020 – 23:40 - Expect (At Least) Another 6.5 Million In Jobless Claims
Expect (At Least) Another 6.5 Million In Jobless Claims
Two weeks ago it was a record 3.3 million initial claims; last week it was an additional 6.6 million in initial claims for a two-week total of 10 million Americans having just lost their jobs.
Tomorrow, Wall Street consensus expects another 5.5 million in initial claims to have been filed although the truth is that nobody has any idea how to quantify and estimate what is essentially the US economy sliding into an economic depression (supposedly a short one, but again, who knows). For the second week in a row, Pictet analyst Thomas Costerg remains the most bearish with a 7.5 million forecast, which if accurate would mean that approximately 18 million Americans – 11% of the labor force – have filed for unemployment benefits in the past three weeks.
Drilling down into the number we use BofA’s forecast which is inbetween the median and the high at 6.5 million. According to the bank, “local news covering developments in various states point to national claims remaining near record levels” although as the bank notes, “risks are tilted to the upside given Google Trends data and the CARES Act. Seasonal adjustment will be a negative offset.”
Some more details:
After reviewing data from local news reports to gather an assessment by state, BofA thinks that 6.5 million claims is a reasonable forecast. For 16 states, the bank found either specific information or enough to back out an implied number, calculating a total of 2.3mn for the upcoming report which matches the week ending March 28 for these 16 states.
Assuming the other states come in similar to the week prior, we are on track for close to 6.5 million jobless claims.
That said, the risks are clearly tilted to the upside (i.e., a much higher claims print). There were broad signs that state governments were increasing hiring or shifting resources to better process filings for unemployment benefits given the deluge in recent weeks. Some states believed the worst was yet to come. Picking up on our analysis from last week, BofA notes that data from Google Trends reveals further pickup in searches for “unemployment benefits” and “filing for unemployment,” which could argue for upside.
There is one potential negative offset: seasonal adjustment. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases seasonal factors in advance and for the week ending April 4 there is a 6.5% positive adjustment to non-seasonally adjusted claims, which is 7.7pp lower than the +14.2% seasonal adjustment in the last report.
To put this in context, combining last week’s non-seasonally adjusted figure of 5.8mn with this week’s lower seasonal factor would result in seasonally adjusted claims of 6.2mn instead of 6.6mn that was actually reported.
That said, the actualy number will likely be even higher due to the bailout itself: as a reminder, the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, passed on March 27, could contribute to new records being reached in coming weeks as it increases eligibility for jobless claims to self-employed and gig workers, extends the maximum number of weeks that one can receive benefits, and provides an additional $600 per week until July 31. A recent WSJ article noted that this has created incentives for some businesses to temporarily furlough their employees, knowing that they will be covered financially as the economy is shutdown. Meanwhile, those making below $50k will generally be made whole and possibly be better off on unemployment benefits.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/08/2020 – 23:20 - Americans Not Making Their Mortgage Payments Soar By 1064% In One Month
Americans Not Making Their Mortgage Payments Soar By 1064% In One Month
Earlier today we reported that the “The Liquidity Crisis Is Quickly Becoming A Solvency Crisis“, and nowhere is this more true than for US homeowners (their servicers, and their lenders).
According to the latest Mortgage Bankers Association Forbearance and Call Volume Survey which highlights the “unprecedented, widespread mortgage forbearance already requested by borrowers affected by the spread of the coronavirus”, the total number of loans in forbearance grew to 2.66% as of April 1; just one month ago, on March 2, the rate was 0.25%, or a 1,064% increase in just one month.
For loans backed by Ginnie Mae, which serves low- and moderate-income borrowers, the surge was much greater, with total loans in forbearance soaring to 4.25% from 0.19% one month ago.
Overall, the MBA reports that total forbearance requests grew by 1,270% between the week of March 2 and the week of March 16, and another 1,896% between the week of March 16 and the week of March 30.
According to Bloomberg, borrowers with relatively low credit scores, many of whom live paycheck to paycheck, are most likely to seek relief. Over the past two years, Ginnie Mae has guaranteed $583 billion of 30-year mortgages with FICO scores below 715, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. However, the longer the coronavirus shutdown lasts, the higher the FICO cutoff for those borrowers unable (or unwilling) to make mortgage payments.
“MBA’s survey highlights the immediate relief consumers are seeking as they navigate the economic hardships brought forth by the mitigation efforts to stop the spread of COVID-19,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “The mortgage industry is committed to providing this much-needed forbearance as mandated by law under the CARES Act. It is expected that requests will continue to skyrocket at an unsustainable pace in the coming weeks, putting insurmountable cash flow constraints on many servicers – especially IMBs.”
The surge in nonpayments comes as the U.S. economy has largely shut down to stem the spread of the coronavirus. The government is requiring lenders handling payments on federally backed loans to give borrowers grace periods of as much as six months at a time with no penalties. Predictably, loan servicers have been flooded with borrowers requesting help.
As the tide of requests to stop mortgage payments come in, the MBS reported that according to mortgage servicer call centers, the wait times increased to 17.5 minutes from under two minutes three weeks prior, and the abandonment rates grew to 25% from 5%. It could get worse: as Americans lose jobs by the millions, mortgage companies say they’ll soon get overwhelmed.
Of course, the problem with a solvency crisis is that it creeps up along the financial chain and loan servicers, which are required to pay bondholders whether or not borrowers pay, are themselves facing a liquidity shortfall that could be devastating for some independent mortgage companies. The MBA said that 3.45% of loans held by nonbanks have gone into forbearance. What’s worse is that while it is easy for people to stop paying their mortgage, it will take months if not years to get all those who stopped paying to restart again.
* * *
Unfortunately, this is just the beginning. As we reported last week, according to Moody’s Analytics, as much as 30% of homeowners – about 15 million households – could stop paying their mortgages if the U.S. economy remains closed through the summer or beyond.
“This is an unprecedented event,” said Susan Wachter, professor of real estate and finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. She also points out another way the current crisis is different from the 2008 GFC: “The great financial crisis happened over a number of years. This is happening in a matter of months – a matter of weeks.”
Meanwhile lenders – like everyone else – are operating in the dark, with no way of predicting the scope or duration of the pandemic or the damage it will wreak on the economy. If the virus recedes soon and the economy roars back to life, then the plan will help borrowers get back on track quickly. But the greater the fallout, the harder and more expensive it will be
Meanwhile lenders – like everyone else – are operating in the dark, with no way of predicting the scope or duration of the pandemic or the damage it will wreak on the economy. If the virus recedes soon and the economy roars back to life, then the plan will help borrowers get back on track quickly. But the greater the fallout, the harder and more expensive it will be to stave off repossessions.
“Nobody has any sense of how long this might last,” said Andrew Jakabovics, a former Department of Housing and Urban Development senior policy adviser who is now at Enterprise Community Partners, a nonprofit affordable housing group. “The forbearance program allows everybody to press pause on their current circumstances and take a deep breath. Then we can look at what the world might look like in six or 12 months from now and plan for that.”
But if the economic turmoil is long-lasting, the government will have to find a way to prevent foreclosures – which could mean forgiving some debt, said Tendayi Kapfidze, Chief Economist at LendingTree. And with the government now stuck in “bailout everyone mode”, the risk of allowing foreclosures to spiral is just too great because it would damage financial markets and that could reinfect the economy, he explained.
“I expect policy makers to do whatever they can to hold the line on a financial crisis,” Kapfidze said hinting at just a trace of a conflict of interest as his firm may well be next to fold if its borrowers declare a payment moratorium. “And that means preventing foreclosures by any means necessary.”
Take for example Laura Habberstad, a bar manager in Washington, D.C., who got a reprieve from her lender but needs time to catch up. The coronavirus snatched away her income, as it has for millions, and replaced it with uncertainty. The restaurant and beer garden where she works was forced to temporarily shut down. Laura has no idea when she’ll get her job back, nor does she have any idea how to look for a new job. After all, how do you search for another hospitality job during a global pandemic? Now she’s living in Oregon with her mother, whose travel agency was also forced to close.
“I don’t know how I’m going to pay my mortgage and my condo dues and still be able to feed myself,” Habberstad said. “I just hope that, once things open up again, we who are impacted by Covid-19 are given consideration and sufficient time to bring all payments current without penalty and in a manner that does not bring us even more financial hardship.”
Borrowers must contact their lenders to get help and avoid black marks on their credit reports, according to provisions in the stimulus package passed by Congress last week. Bank of America said it has so far allowed 50,000 mortgage customers to defer payments. That includes loans that are not federally backed, so they aren’t covered by the government’s program.
Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has convened a task force to deal with the potential liquidity shortfall faced by mortgage servicers, which collect payments and are required to compensate bondholders even if homeowners miss them. The group was supposed to make recommendations by March 30.
“If a large percentage of the servicing book – let’s say 20-30% of clients you take care of – don’t have the ability to make a payment for six months, most servicers will not have the capital needed to cover those payments,” QuickenChief Executive Officer Jay Farner said in an interview. But not Quicken, of course.
Quicken, which serves 1.8 million borrowers, and in 2018 surpassed Wells Fargo as the #1 mortgage lender in the US, has a strong enough balance sheet to serve its borrowers while paying holders of bonds backed by its mortgages, Farner said, although something tells us that in 6-8 weeks his view will change dramatically. Until then, the company plans to almost triple its call center workers by May to field the expected onslaught of borrowers seeking support, he said.
Ironically, as Bloomberg concludes, “if the pandemic has taught us anything, it’s how quickly everything can change. Just weeks ago, mortgage lenders were predicting the biggest spring in years for home sales and mortgage refinances.” Instead, just a few weeks later the US housing market has fallen into an abyss that could be far worse than the Great Depression.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/08/2020 – 23:05 - Symbol Of The Times: Tokyo Olympic Flame 'Hidden' Indefinitely To Prevent Crowds
Symbol Of The Times: Tokyo Olympic Flame ‘Hidden’ Indefinitely To Prevent Crowds
Last month’s news that the Tokyo Olympics has been postponed until 2021 was a big enough blow to athletes, fans and organizers — but this is just as heavy on symbolism in terms of the state of the world, much of it on ‘lockdown’, after months of the coronavirus pandemic:
“The Tokyo Olympic flame has been taken off public display in Japan. And it’s not clear when it will reappear again or where — or under what conditions,” AP reports.
Via AP The torch had been on display in Fukushima since arriving from Greece late last month. Though it was supposed to remain on display through April, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Tuesday issued a state of emergency for the whole country, banning large gatherings and crowds, after COVID-19 cases soared past 4,000 – and approaching 100 deaths.
This prompted officials to essentially hide the flame “in an undisclosed location” to ensure crowds don’t gather in front of it.
“Tokyo 2020 will now keep the flame in an undisclosed location to prevent people from gathering,” Tokyo Olympic organizers told the AP.
Later the International Olympic Committee (IOC) plans to use it as a public symbol of world hope amid the pandemic. “The idea will be to keep this flame burning and showing it to the world,” an IOC official said. “The Olympic flame burning will provide a very powerful inspiration, a bright light as the world goes through these difficult times.”
File image of 2018 torch lighting ceremony in Olympia, Greece. Via Reuters But the flame could remain ‘hidden’ through much of this year, as it’s not expected to resume it’s originally planned torch relay schedule until 2021, just ahead of the now delayed Tokyo Olympics.
The torch ceremony ahead of each modern olympics begins in Olympia, Greece – where the ancient games were held. The practice was revived in modern times for the 1936 Olympics held in Berlin, Germany.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/08/2020 – 23:00 - Bill Gates Crosses The Digital Rubicon, Says "Mass Gatherings" May Not Return Without Global Vaccine
Bill Gates Crosses The Digital Rubicon, Says “Mass Gatherings” May Not Return Without Global Vaccine
Authored by Robert Bridge via The Strategic Culture Foundation,
A recurring theme among conspiracy theorists is that the elite are just waiting for the right moment to roll out their ‘mark of the beast’ technology to remotely identify and control every single human being on the planet, thus sealing their plans for a one world government. And with many people willing to do just about anything to get back to some sense of normalcy, those fears appear more justified with each passing day.
In the Book of Revelation [13:16-17], there is a passage that has attracted the imagination of believers and disbelievers throughout the ages, and perhaps never more so than right now: “And he causeth all, both small and great, rich and poor, free and bond, to receive a mark in their right hand, or in their foreheads: And that no man might buy or sell, save he that had the mark…”
Was John of Patmos history’s first conspiracy theorist, or are we merely indulging ourselves today with a case of self-fulfilling prophecy? Whatever the case may be, many people would probably have serious reservations about being branded with an ID code even if it had never been mentioned in Holy Scripture. But that certainly has not stopped Microsoft founder Bill Gates, who has been warning about a global pandemic for years, from pushing such controversial technologies on all of us.
In September 2019, just three months before the coronavirus first appeared in China, ID2020, a San Francisco-based biometric company that counts Microsoft as one of its founding members, quietly announced it was undertaking a new project that involves the “exploration of multiple biometric identification technologies for infants” that is based on “infant immunization” and only uses the “most successful approaches”.
In a new interview, Bill Gates authoritatively states that mass public gatherings will not come back “at all” until we have mass vaccination. Who made him king of the world? https://t.co/siW7bZ9yGc … pic.twitter.com/ivaCI8eAEl
— Alternative News (@NewsAlternative) April 4, 2020
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For anyone who may be wondering what one of those “most successful approaches” might look like, consider the following top contender for the contract. Researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) have developed what is essentially a hi-tech ‘tattoo’ that stores data in invisible dye under the skin. The ‘mark’ would be delivered together with a vaccine, most likely administered by Gavi, the global vaccine agency that also falls under the umbrella of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
“The researchers showed that their new dye, which consists of nanocrystals called quantum dots… emits near-infrared light that can be detected by a specially equipped smartphone,” MIT News reported.
And if the reader scrolls to the very bottom of the article, he will find that this study was funded first and foremost by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.
Today, with the global service economy shut down to prevent large groups of infectious humans from assembling, it is easier to imagine a day when people are required to have their infrared ID ‘tattoo’ scanned in order to be granted access to any number of public venues. And from there, it requires little stretch of the imagination to see this same tracking nanotechnology being applied broadly across the global economy, where it could be used to eliminate the use of dirty money. After all, if reusable bags are being outlawed over the coronavirus panic-demic, why should reusable cash get special treatment?
Writing earlier this month in these pages, geopolitical analyst Pepe Escobar provided a compelling argument that the coronavirus, which is driving the world towards a New Great Depression, is “being used as cover for the advent of a new, digital financial system, complete with a forced vaccine cum nanochip creating a full, individual, digital identity.
As one possible future scenario, Escobar imagined “clusters of smart cities linked by AI, with people monitored full time and duly micro-chipped doing what they need with a unified digital currency…”
Those fears took on greater significance when Bill Gates sat down over the weekend for a breathtaking interview with CBS This Morning. Gates told host Anthony Mason that mass gatherings might have to be prohibited in the age of coronavirus unless and until a wide scale vaccination program is enacted.
“What does ‘opening up’ look like,” Gates asked rhetorically before essentially changing the entire social and cultural makeup of the United States in one fell swoop.
“Which activities, like schools, have such benefit and can be done in a way that the risk of transmission is very low, and which activities, like mass gatherings, maybe, in a certain sense more optional. And so until you’re widely vaccinated those [activities] may not come back at all”
[The interview can be watched in its entirety here].
According to Gates, anything that could be defined as a “mass gathering” – from spectators packed into a stadium for a sporting event, to protesters out on the street in demonstration – would be considered an act of civil disobedience without a vaccine. Little surprise that Gates chose the concept of “mass gathering” to snag all of us, for what is modern democratic society if not one big mass event after another? Indeed, since nobody will want to miss the next big happening, like the Super Bowl, or Comic-Con, or, heaven forbid, Eurovision, millions of people would predictably line up for miles to get their Microsoft-supported inoculation, even if it contains tracking technologies.
MIT is working on a “quantum tattoo” that will mark you with an invisible identifier while also delivering a vaccine. Can you guess who is the premiere donor of the project? https://t.co/ZEWqCUVGwI pic.twitter.com/jFVip4DaqZ
— Roosh (@rooshv) April 4, 2020
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All of this seems like sheer madness when it is remembered that there are other options for defeating the coronavirus than a mandatory global vaccine regime.
Just last month, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director, told a Senate Subcommittee that over 80 percent of the people who get infected by the coronavirus “spontaneously recover” without any medical intervention. This makes one wonder why the global lockdown was designed for everyone instead of just the sick and elderly. Meanwhile, the drug hydroxychloroquine, which has been downplayed in the media despite being named as the most effective coronavirus treatment among physicians in a major survey, is starting to get a fresh look.
Just this week, following Nevada’s lead, Michigan just reversed course and is now the second democratic state to request the anti-malarial drug from the Trump administration.
Michigan reverses course, requests anti-malarial drugs from feds to treat coronavirus. Second Democratic governor to change mind this week, following Nevada. https://t.co/TkZyXEqs9l
— John Solomon (@jsolomonReports) April 3, 2020
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So now it looks as though we are off to the races to see what will become the approved method of fighting the global pandemic – a hastily developed vaccine that may actually worsen the effects of the disease in those who contract it, or the already proven inexpensive drug hydroxychloroquine.
If the winner turns out to be a global vaccine, possibly one that carries ID nanotechnology, don’t expect the wealthy to be lining up with their kids to be the first to get it. In 2015, The American Journal of Public Heath surveyed some 6,200 schools in California – the epicenter of biometric ID research – and found vaccine exemptions were twice as common among kindergartners enrolled in private institutions.
It seems that the elite are betting heavily on the development of an ID-tracking vaccine that would bring all races and institutions together under one big happy roof, but clearly they will continue living in their own fenced-off neighborhood in this one world government. Whether or not they will get a ‘special pass’ from receiving the new-age mark is another question.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/08/2020 – 22:40 - Over 30% Of US Renters Didn't Pay April Apartment Rent
Over 30% Of US Renters Didn’t Pay April Apartment Rent
Landlords across the country have been left in the lurch after nearly one-third of apartment renters in the US didn’t pay any of their April rent during the first week of the month, according to new data from the National Multifamily Housing Council to be released Wednesday.
The shocking figure comes as 10 million new unemployment claims were filed in the past three weeks due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
According to the report cited by the Wall Street Journal, just 69% of tenants paid any rent between April 1 and 5 vs. 81% the same week in March and 82% in April 2019.
The count includes renters who only made partial payments. Many renters who haven’t yet paid may still pay later this month, NMHC said, and an uptick in paperless payments over the weekend may not be reflected in this initial count.
The data come from 13.4 million rental apartments analyzed by several real-estate data firms, including RealPage, Yardi and Entrata. The properties included are considered investment grade with a tenant base that may skew higher-income than the median renter. The data don’t include single-family homes, and the apartments counted exclude public housing and other subsidized affordable housing. –Wall Street Journal
The Journal also notes that some tenants will receive temporary protection from evictions “by a patchwork of federal and local laws,” but the reality is that as unpaid rents pile up, so will mortgage defaults as landlords struggle to satisfy their obligations – which will in turn affect fixed-income investments backed by said mortgages.
Standing in the way of this cascade is a promise by the federal government which will allow apartment building owners to defer their government-backed mortgage payments, while the Federal Reserve has also vowed to buy bonds tied to certain multifamily loans, according to the report.
That said, the measures don’t address loans held by banks without a government guarantee – leaving over 2/3 of financed rental units subject to foreclosure.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/08/2020 – 22:20 - New Projections Show Virus Spreading Twice As Fast As Expected
New Projections Show Virus Spreading Twice As Fast As Expected
Trying to project the path and velocity of an outbreak is difficult, even when it’s being done on a relatively small scale like, say, within one country, or a handful of countries, like the last few major outbreaks (for example, ebola). Trying to project the arc of an unprecedented pandemic is educated guesswork, at best.
Projections, and the differences in their outcomes depending on the variance in inputs, have become something of an obsession for traders and politicians alike. Since the US government doesn’t produce its own projections, the most popular data cited in the US are projections produced by an institute at the University of Washington. The IMHE projections have been cited by Cuomo, de Blasio and Trump alike.
Any traders who weren’t familiar with the projections before Tuesday or Wednesday probably are now: a revision published last night produced a moderate swing downward in expected deaths across the US, to just 60,400 by August. Previously, the model projected around 90k before.
Of course, around the world, there are probably dozens of sets of projections, all produced by “credible” researchers, all saying slightly different things. And now, one of those researchers has caught the attention of Bloomberg by announcing that it may have underestimated the virus’s velocity by half, meaning it’s been spreading twice as quickly through China – and will therefore likely follow (or has followed) a similar pattern in the US.
This set of projections was produced by researchers at Los Alamos, BBG said.
As the CPC lifts travel restrictions on “healthy” residents of Wuhan – sending tens of thousands scrambling to escape the city – the team of researchers has determined that the virus likely spread through the country twice as quickly as initially believed.
New assumptions produced by the team including the average number of people infected in the early days of the epidemic in Wuhan: they have been revised to 5.7, more than twice the number the WHO has projected.
Of course, the team’s results are specific to the Chinese outbreak. But although Beijing hesitated during the early days of the outbreak, it’s heavy handed response likely won’t be mimicked by the West, meaning if the virus spread more quickly in China, it’s reasonable to expect that it could travel through the US at around the same speed.
At any rate, with this new rate of spread, researchers determined that some 82% of the population would need to be immune, either via a vaccine or because they’d already had the disease, in order to stop the virus from spreading. Without such protection, high levels of social distancing would be needed, since as many as 1/5 people infected present as asymptomatic, a factor that has terribly complicated the response to the virus.
While some parts of China begin instating restrictions over fears of the second wave (which we’ve noted is likely coming now that Beijing has unleashed a flood of Wuhan residents on the country), Germany and Austria are trying to figure out how to start reopening the economy, as is the White House.
Notably, the Los Alamos report, which was initially published in Emerging Infectious Diseases, relied on anonymized mobile phone travel data and case reports of coronavirus outside the early epicenter in China’s Hubei province to calculate the spread, all things considered, that should be some pretty accurate data, if the authorities haven’t tampered with it. Then again, if they had, the numbers would probably look a lot better than they do.
Unless…
Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/08/2020 – 22:00 - Global Coronavirus Cases Top 1.5 Million, Deaths Approach 90k: Live Updates
Global Coronavirus Cases Top 1.5 Million, Deaths Approach 90k: Live Updates
Summary:
- Confirmed cases across Africa pass 10k
- China reopens Wuhan
- Global case total passes 1.4 million
- Russia reports another record daily jump in new cases
- UK reports another record jump in deaths
- France extends lockdown after April 15
- Global case total tops 1.5 million while deaths near 90k
- Mnuchin reportedly tells Dems $98 billion loans approved
- Germany, Spain, France report latest numbers
- Christine Lagarde urges Eurogroup to work together
- EU extends border closure until May 15
- Italy reports slight acceleration in cases as deaths, ICU patients fall
- Sunak says Johnson “improving”
- NJ Gov’s chief counsel tests positive
- NYC reportedly has enough ventilators to get through this week
- Scientists find evidence some recovered don’t have antibodies
- Swss gov’t sees GDP contracting as much as 10.4 % in 2020
- LA mayor orders businesses to enforce social distancing
- WHO’s Dr. Tedros responds to Trump
- WHO again insists lockdowns must stay in effect
- Iraq extends border closure with Iran
- Indonesia outbreak continues to accelerate
- Ethiopia joins growing list of African states by declaring state of emergency
* * *
Update (1900ET): France, Spain and Germany have all reported new numbers over the past couple of hours.
Spain reported 6,278 new cases and 747 new deaths for a total of 148,220 cases and 14,792 deaths.
Germany 5,118 new cases and, 230 new deaths for a total of 112,781 cases and 2,246 deaths. And in France, the health ministry reported 3,881 new cases, and 541 new deaths, for a total of 112,950 new cases and 10,869 deaths.
The data mostly confirm the recent trend, that the outbreak in Continental Europe is ‘peaking’.
Meanwhile, as Christine Lagarde at the ECB called on the Eurogroup to get it together and agree on a sufficiently forceful fiscal response to this crisis, while the European Commission, which just a month ago opposed border closures, announced Wednesday evening that it would extend its closure of the EU outer border until May 15.
In Germany, health officials have reached a new testing milestone: 1.3 million tests have been conducted since the beginning of the outbreak. The country is now testing more than 50k a day, while it’s unclear what the comparable number is in the US (though at the rate new cases are being confirmed, it appears the administration has come a long way in ramping up testing after their initial fumbles).
Meanwhile, the big news out of Wednesday night’s press conference is that pharmacists are now allowed to order coronavirus tests, said DHHS Secretary Alex Azar.
“Giving pharmacists the authorization to order and administer Covid-19 tests to their patients means easier access to testing for Americans who need it,” he said.
In other news, passenger traffic at Europe’s airports fell a staggering 97% at the end of March thanks to the outbreak.
* * *
Update (1730ET): NJ Gov. Phil Murphy’s chief counsel, Matt Platkin, recently tested positive for the virus. He remains asymptomatic, but is isolating at home, according to a statement from the governor’s office.
* * *
Update (1530ET): BNO News reports that the global number of confirmed coronavirus cases has surpassed 1.5 million, while the death toll approaches 90k. BNO’s numbers are slightly higher than Johns Hopkins University, another chronicler of news and information concerning the outbreak. Of the global total, the US, with roughly 419k cases, makes up about 25%.
BREAKING: 1.5 million confirmed cases of coronavirus worldwide, death toll approaching 90,000 https://t.co/ACTvkkQ0g2
— BNO Newsroom (@BNODesk) April 8, 2020
And with China opening the floodgates in Wuhan, we suspect that number is about to start growing a lot more quickly.
Looking at the global curve, the pace of the acceleration in recent weeks is staggering, and has been driven in large part by the US, which has the largest share of confirmed cases. WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, responding to Trump’s criticism, insisted that now isn’t the time to talk about money.
“For God’s sake,” he said, noting the more than 80,000 confirmed deaths so far. “Even one person is precious.” He added, “if you don’t want more body bags, don’t politicize this,” he said.
“If you don’t want many more body bags than you refrain from politicizing it.”
In other words, don’t criticize the obvious conflict of interest involving China, or the price will be bodies.
* * *
Update (1515ET): Johns Hopkins just reported that the number of confirmed cases of the virus is 1,475,976…drawing ever closer to the 1.5 million milestone.
Meanwhile, here’s a clip from Cuomo’s press conference earlier this afternoon.
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo says the state saw its highest single-day coronavirus death toll of 779 people. He ordered all flags in New York to be flown at half-mast https://t.co/jvPgtcR2wC pic.twitter.com/t2wNrNZ5ZH
— Reuters (@Reuters) April 8, 2020
* * *
Update (1450ET): American companies including Ford and GE have worked together to rearrange their supply chains to start producing ventilators, the first of which likely won’t be ready until months after they’re needed. Now, GM has joined them.
The $490 million deal will provide the Department of Health and Human Services with another 30k in ventilators, at a price of $17,000 apiece.
Meanwhile, Cali Gov Gavin Newsom’s news briefing for Wednesday is about to begin.
Governor @GavinNewsom provides an update on the state’s response to the #COVID19 outbreak. #StayHomeSaveLives https://t.co/MtPuM5eXrV
— Office of the Governor of California (@CAgovernor) April 8, 2020
* * *
Update (1440ET): The Presidential Palace has just confirmed that President Emmanuel Macron will extend France’s lockdown past April 15.
In other news, the Mnuchin PPP loan-approval ticker continues: A leak that just hit the wires claims Mnuchin told Dems that $98 billion in loans have already been approved, more than a quarter of the total amount allotted by Congress.
We’ll believe it when we see it.
* * *
Update (1245ET): Cuomo on Wednesday reported 779 new COVID-19-linked deaths across the state, another single-day record jump in what has been a mostly rocky few days for the state in terms of new deaths (while reports about potentially temporarily burying bodies in city parks sent a shiver through America’s collective spine).
During the briefing, Cuomo said the state would extend unemployment benefits for workers, and added that the state seems to be well equipped with enough ventilators and even some BPAP machines (which can be modified to work like ventilators). He said that he it appears that cases have continued to plateau, continuing a trend that supposedly began this weekend (though some have raised issues about the way the data is collected, while others have warned about undercounting of deaths).
Though some might consider Cuomo’s interpretation a tad too rosy, the governor insisted that “we’re not out of this yet” and warned people to stay vigilent.
All voters will be allowed to vote by absentee ballot during New York’s June primary, Cuomo said, while ordering flags in the state to be flown at half-staff, following in the footsteps of NJ Gov. Phil Murphy. Cuomo added that objections to this practice are “total nonsense,” despite the fact that voter fraud is more prevalent than many suspect. Finally, Cuomo told viewers that we might see more days with high death tolls like today’s – perhaps even higher – as deaths peak.
Cuomo started his presser with a soliloquy about how “the poorest always pay the highest price” in a crisis, and promised to do everything possible to combat this, including getting money in their pockets faster by giving workers an extra $600 for everyone filing for unemployment. When questioned by a reporter if he was considering closing any more front-line businesses to help protect minorities, Cuomo said it was an issue that he had given some thought to (though if anything, NYC probably should thinking about opening more essential businesses as the government whiffs the bailout and shortages of consumer products like TP persist).
Here’s a breakdown of NY deaths, which shows that older Americans have been dying in the largest numbers, but still 20% of those who died were part of age groups who might be considered ‘still young’.
Later, Cuomo warned that while NYC and Westchester are on the downward slope, he warned that we would “almost certainly” see a jump in cases on Long Island. New York State reported 149,316 total cases statewide, including 10.480 new addigiotns, equivalent to a 7.5% increase, indicating a slight acceleration compared to yesterday. While the state reported 6,268 dead, including 779 deaths (its highest one-day jump yet), that’s larger than the ‘peak’ death number that is supposed to come Wednesday, according to the IMHE model. Then again, these models merely projections, intended to hopefully be close, but likely not exact.
However, as WaPo pointed out earlier, various models have differed dramatically as the unprecedented scale of this outbreak has forced epidemiologists to try and customize their typical coronavirus outbreak model playbook. And especially when it comes to medical equipment, the IMHE (part of the University of Washington) models tend to be significantly rosier than state models, leaving some governors and Washington DC to essentially pray that intubations hem closer to IMHE.
Most importantly, following reports that thousands of ‘home deaths’ have gone uncounted in official statistics, Cuomo said he’s looking at “other models” to help more accurately “adjust” figures to account for those home deaths.
Before we go, it’s worth pointing out: New York reached another important milestone today: It has surpassed Italy in terms of total cases, meaning New York State now has more cases than any single country ex-US.
* * *
Update (1225ET): New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s Wednesday press briefing is slated to start at 12:30.
* * *
Update (1208ET): The market is running away with its optimistic view as Dr. Fauci claims new cases being reported in the US will likely start to fall next week and NYC Mayor de Blasio claims the city has enough ventilators on hand to ensure no unnecessary deaths, but more disturbing data has been reported out of the UK that would appear to undermine the narrative of a Europe-wide deceleration.
Once again, the UK reported its largest death toll yet, with 938 new deaths, bringing the total to 7,097. It also reported nearly 8k new cases, bringing the national total to 60,733.
In other news, in the latest update on PM Johnson, Chancellor Rishi Sunak said the PM is “improving”. The jump in UK deaths brought the mortality rate to a new high of 11.7%.
Meanwhile, after a 3-day streak of declining new cases, Italy reported a jump on Wednesday, with 3,836 new cases, bringing the country’s total to 139,422. Of these, 53,414 cases were reported in Lombardy.
Though new cases saw a slight acceleration, Italy reported another encouraging drop in deaths, and a drop in ICU patients. Deaths reported were 542, bringing the total to 17,662. Of these, 9,772 were in Lombardy.
Italy’s 🇮🇹 data today is very much in line with yesterday. There are fewer new registered deaths (542 vs 604), and the number of patients in intensive care continues to fall (-2.6%). However, there is a very slight acceleration in total registered cases (+2.8% vs +2.3%). #COVID19
— Ferdinando Giugliano (@FerdiGiugliano) April 8, 2020
* * *
Update (1045ET): Russia reported another record number of new cases on Wednesday, with 1,175 confirmations, bringing its total to 8,672 cases.
Meanwhile, as more cases are reported across East Asia, Hong Kong has extended social distancing measures to April 23 from April 11, while ordering the closure of beauty parlors and massage parlors.
* * *
Update (1020ET): According to prior projections, the’peak’ in NYC’s coronavirus outbreak was supposed to arrive on Thursday. And in keeping with the optimistic turn in the official projections, NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio said his city now has enough ventilators to “get through this week”, which suggests the city might be able to weather the storm without needing substantially more ventilators.
Join us at City Hall with the latest updates on COVID-19 in New York City. https://t.co/1oJmdWgZ6G
— Mayor Bill de Blasio (@NYCMayor) April 8, 2020
While we’d like to take this as good news, the mayor’s history of playing down the dangers of COVID-19 suggests he could be playing down the risks once again.
Offering a racial breakdown of COVID-19 deaths, de Blasio said 34% of patients who die from the virus are white, 27% black, 28% Hispanic, and 7% Asian, the remaining 4% were a mix of other nationalities.
In LA, meanwhile, Mayor Garcetti has ordered all still-open (ie “essential”) businesses to enforce social distancing for employees and customers, or face civil fines.
Meanwhile, over in Europe, the Swiss government has released its latest projections: it now sees GDP contracting by as much as 10.4% this year according to its worst-case scenario.
* * *
Update (0948ET): As Indonesia becomes the latest East Asian country to report an acceleration in new cases, disturbing new videos purporting to show patients collapsing in public have been shared by the Epoch Times. After resisting a shutdown for weeks, the country’s president, Joko Widodo, has ordered schools shut and other businesses shut in the country’s capital, densely populated Jakarta.
Indonesia reported another 218 new cases of coronavirus on Wednesday, bringing its total to 2,956 cases. The country has also reported 240 deaths, while 222 patients have recovered.
The problem with that 218 number is that Indonesian health authorities in Jakarta are only able to run 240 tests a day at max capacity. That means there’s a chance that everybody, or nearly everybody, tested in Indonesia has tested positive. This is not good, as it signals that the outbreak is almost definitely much larger than the government realizes.
An increase in burials around Jakarta raised alarms in Indonesia, which is the largest Muslim-majority nation in the world, with ~265 million people, as health authorities suddenly realized that the virus had probably been spreading undetected for weeks. This comes after the government has already admitted to lying about positive case numbers, after insisting for weeks that it had zero detected cases.
And here’s that video:
#Indonesia Under Attack by #CCPVirus (#COVID19) #中共病毒 肆虐 #印尼
Click here for more 更多视频: https://t.co/fSwmxEsPYp#CCPVirus #COVID2019 #Coronavirus #CoronavirusOutbreak #CoronavirusPandemic #CoronaVirusChallenge #DownWithTheCCP#新冠肺炎 #新冠病毒 #武汉肺炎 #打倒共产党 pic.twitter.com/z6qp2nTF4v— Jennifer Zeng 曾錚 (@jenniferatntd) April 4, 2020
* * *
Update (0830ET): With one hand, Germany’s Department of Health is pushing an app that will rely on cellphone location data to track contacts of people who test positive. Meanwhile, the Foreign Ministry is taking action to restrict the use of the conferencing app Zoom over security concerns.
Meanwhile, Zoom just hired Alex Stamos, the former security chief at Facebook who spoke out against his former employer during that whole Internet privacy debacle, as it tries to rebuild its reputation before everybody
* * *
Though the coronavirus outbreak figures reported out of Europe yesterday were probably more mixed than health officials would have liked, there was, apparently, enough to keep the resurgence of optimism that has fueled market gains in recent days alive. While China blithely prepares to unleash its second wave on itself and the world in what seems like an almost deliberate act, the Washington Post reported overnight that the main epidemiological model being followed by the federal government has just revised down the need for ventilators, beds and other equipment as the world seems to have convinced itself that a lull is underway.
Across the US, chatter on social media about the need to get at least some of the shut-down economy back online has intensified in recent days, as political commentary as inspired heated discussions as opponents accuse Republicans and many regular Americans of callously placing the economy and their own self-interest above protecting society’s most vulnerable. Meanwhile, the global case total has surpassed 1.4 million, with 83k+ deaths.
But as JPM projected, and as was the case during SARS and other prior pandemics, even if the novel coronavirus does begin to recede heading into the summer, remember: this is only part one.
At this point, it’s not like anybody is going to snap their fingers and suddenly turn the clock back to Dec. 31, 2019. Many Americans – especially those at high risk – will likely cut down on leisure air travel, as pundits are already talking about the death of the “one-flight meeting”.
But as we begin to weigh the pros and cons, and the Trump Administration reportedly weighs a plan to reactivate parts of the economy and allowing some people to get back to work if they can demonstrate that they’re healthy, the SCMP late last night highlighted some new scientific evidence that is extremely disturbing.
As we explained above, by lifting restrictions on Wuhan, China is potentially unleashing hundreds, maybe even thousands, of asymptomatic carriers on the rest of the country. But scientists believe the ‘herd immunity’ that has supposedly been built up during the first wave should blunt the impact of ensuing waves somewhat. Well, unfortunately, it looks like that thesis needs to be reexamined.
Since the early days of the outbreak, we’ve seen reports about people being reinfected with the virus (though in some cases there were doubts about whether the virus ever really left). Well, now, a team of researchers at Fudan University in Shanghai has discovered that an alarmingly high number of recovered patients whom they’ve tested show low, or no, levels of the virus antibodies in their blood. That means a sizable chunk of those who are infected will be vulnerable to reinfection.
In other words, if these findings are confirmed, the hoped-for “herd immunity” that is supposed to help us get things back to normal in the time between now and however long it takes researchers to mass produce a vaccine simply isn’t going to materialize: Instead of diluting the density and acting as blockers for spread, many will be reinfected, and go on to spread the virus to others, all over again. It’s just the latest reason to worry that the second wave of the virus could be larger than the first.
Some countries are already seeing the first stirrings of a second wave: On Wednesday, Tokyo reported a record 144 new cases on Wednesday as Japanese PM Shinzo Abe’s lockdown (which is legally toothless but has inspired most businesses to close nonetheless) took effect in Tokyo and six other districts across Japan. And now that the Tokyo Games have officially been suspended, the Olympic flame has been taken off public display in Japan. And it’s not clear when it will reappear again or where — or under what conditions.
But and China and Japan aren’t the only Asian nations fearful of a full-blown second wave: Hong Kong on Wednesday announced plans for an “unprecedented” $18 billion virus stimulus package to support Hong Kong’s rapid;y deteriorating economy, according to Bloomberg.
As the virus continues its woefully underreported spread across Africa – or so public health experts fear – Ethiopia announced on Wednesday that it’s joining a growing list of African nations – already including Botswana, Congo, Ivory Coast, Senegal, South Africa and others – by declaring a state of emergency over the virus. The country’s 110 million people have been relatively unscathed, reporting just 52 cases so far, though some fear that the country’s close ties to Beijing and commerce between the two nations means many more cases have gone unreported. This comes as the number of confirmed cases across Africa has finally passed 10k.
Iraq also extended the closure of its main border crossing with Iran as the ‘official’ death toll in that country passes 10k. Much to Trump’s delight, the decision will put added economic pressure on Tehran, as it will disrupt trade between the two nations, something upon which Iran’s sanctions-starved government greatly relies.
Certain progressive media outlets in the US will likely never forget that certain conservative pundits and even – to a much lesser degree – President Trump, Mitch McConnell and other Republican leaders played down the coronavirus as the first cases were confirmed in the US. While President Trump likes to brag about his decision to shut down travel from China, in reality, that was a half-measure (he should have shut down travel from Europe, as certain senior advisors reportedly urged). And while they’re not wrong, they’re only telling part of the story. A lot of people in positions of power – including, as the Intercept notes, NYC’s Democratic mayor – either underestimated the outbreak, or have changed views on subjects like drugs, whether shutting down schools makes sense, whether a partial shutdown that preserves more of the economy might be a more appropriate response – the list goes on and on.
Going through this list, it appears to us that nobody is more guilty than the WHO, which is partly why President Trump is insisting that the US reexamine the WHO’s funding, and has mocked the WHO for ‘totally blowing it’.
Of course, anybody who has only just started paying attention in the past few weeks (ie most of America) probably doesn’t remember the WHO dragging its feet on the global threat and pandemic designations (those were two separate declarations), while also insisting that travel restrictions and border closures weren’t appropriate at a time when those decisions could have gone a long way toward suppressing the spread.
Because as the White House reportedly prepares a plan to get some healthy people back to work in the not too distant future, the WHO is now urging that countries considering a lifting of their lockdowns should probably reconsider (even as China prepares to send legions of infected Wuhan residents across its own country, and the world).
The WHO said Wednesday that “we have a long way to go” to defeat the pandemic, said Dr Hans Kluge, the WHO regional director for Europe, adding that now is “not the time to relax [lockdown] measures,” and all countries must “double and triple our collective efforts”. “We still have a long way to go,” he said. “The progress we have made so far in fighting the virus is extremely fragile.” Any relaxation of social distancing measures requires “very careful consideration,” he added. “We need to remain committed.”
His remarks were clearly directed at the West (after all, he was speaking in English), but would the WHO, which has come under fire for refusing to criticize Beijing, say the same about Wuhan?
If you, dear reader, happen to be a billionaire like Microsoft founder Bill Gates, or at least wealthy enough to perhaps be insulated from the vicissitudes of the combined economic and public health crises which have caused the economy to literally grind to a halt, then maybe you really do lack the self-awareness to really compare (after all, the stock market has really bounced back over these last few days). For those who still believe most Americans could survive a ten week total economic shutdown, the OECD would just like you to know: Most of the world is already officially in a deep recession. A leading indicator published by the Paris-based NGO showed its biggest drop on record.
Just in case you weren’t aware, the global economy is a giant dumpster fire right now. And while people with comfortable white collar jobs are shouting at everybody to “stay indoors!!!!”, there are millions of people are this country who are still waking up every day trying to figure out how they’re going to eat, or take care of other essential needs, in the middle of a lockdown. That doesn’t mean people should just flout the lockdown when they feel like it, it’s just a reminder that everybody deserves the benefit of the doubt.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/08/2020 – 21:45 - US Treasury Cash Balance Hits Record $750 Billion After Historic Flood Of Bill Issuance
US Treasury Cash Balance Hits Record $750 Billion After Historic Flood Of Bill Issuance
It may not quite be last week’s $563 billion T-bill deluge, but it will do.
After a tsunami of new T-Bill and Cash Management Bill issuance last week, which saw no less than $85 billion in new short-term debt issued every every day except Friday, sending the Treasury’s cash balance soaring to new all time highs, in the first three days of the current week the Treasury has been just as busy and has continued to flood the market with new short-term debt, in a dramatic reversal of the T-Bill shortage we reported two weeks ago.
As shown in the chart below, after the $563BN in Bills and CMBs issued last week, this week the Treasury has continued its T-bill firehose and in just the past 3 days has issued, in addition to the regularly scheduled 3-Month and 6-Month Bills, also 154 Day, 119 Day, 69 Day, 43 Day, 103 Day and 40 Days Cash Management Bills, for a total of $369BN in just the first three days of the week as shown in the chart below:
And while a portion of this $369BN gross issuance went to offset current maturities, the net effect was massive nonetheless, and nowhere more so than the Treasury’s cash balance (i.e. the Federal Reserve Account).
As shown in the next chart, the result of the Bill issuance flood from the last two weeks is that the cash balance of the Treasury (i.e. the US government) just hit a record $750 billion, up $235 billion from last week, and the highest on record.
Why this flood of new issuance?
Because we are now three days since the crisis response officially began as hundreds of billions in small, medium and very large business bailout demands will soon hit the Treasury as up to $2 trillion in funds are handed out across the economy over the coming weeks.
As such, the three quarters of a trillion dollars held electronically at the US Treasury is just the beginning.
And here a quick aside: consider the path the money is taking before ending up in Joe Sixpack’s pocket: a desk worker at the Treasury punches a few buttons and sells electronic certificates which mature in a few weeks and are backstopped by the US government and which in turn fund the Treasury’s account with electronic dollars which were paid by some investor who similarly punched a few buttons on his computer and in hopes of parking his cash somewhere safe, handed over his electronic money to the Treasury desk worker. As a result of this transaction, hundreds of millions will receive a small amount of electronic ones and zeros in the next few days, which for countless people will mean the difference between disaster and survival.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/08/2020 – 21:40 - Michigan ER Nurses Ordered To Leave Hospital For Work Stoppage Over 'Unsafe Patient Load'
Michigan ER Nurses Ordered To Leave Hospital For Work Stoppage Over ‘Unsafe Patient Load’
Metro Detroit hospitals began to get overwhelmed with a surge of coronavirus patients starting last month. Local media at that time documented an increasingly chaotic situation at the city’s Sinai-grace Hospital where patient rooms were filled with gowns and trash strewn across dirty floors — this as even cleaning crews weren’t allowed in rooms, fearing exposure.
Already at that point emergency room nurses said they were “exhausted” and feared they and their families would get infected. But this week things came to a head with hospital administration when ER nursing staff demanded more nurses be added to their overrun facilities. They say in some instances only two nurses care for 26 patients, including ten on ventilators.
CNN reports that a dramatic standoff endued: “The night shift ER nurses at Sinai-Grace Hospital refused to leave the break room until hospital administrators brought in more nurses to help out, a physician at the hospital told CNN.”
Treating COVID-19 patients, via The Independent “Hospital administrators decided, after four hours of deliberation, they would not be bringing in any more nurses to help and that the nurses could get to work or leave the hospital, the doctor said,” the report continues. Some did depart at that point, though it’s unclear if the hospital will terminate their employment – it’s presumed so.
One of the nurses later described of the confrontation with their bosses, “Tonight, it was the breaking point for us” — after for three straight weeks the ER had over 110 patients, at max capacity or more every night.
“Because we cannot safely take care of your loved ones out here with just six, seven nurses and multiple (ventilators) and multiple people on drips. It’s not right. We had two nurses the other day who had 26 patients with 10 (ventilators),” ER nurse Sal Hadwan said.
Sinai-Grace hospital leaders fired back, however, saying in a statement:
“We are disappointed that last night a very small number of nurses at Sinai-Grace Hospital staged a work stoppage in the hospital refusing to care for patients,” Detroit Medical Center Communications Manager Jason Barczy told CNN. “Despite this, our patients continued to receive the care they needed as other dedicated nurses stepped in to provide care.”
The statement placed the blame on the nurses for “refusing to care for patients,” which is likely to add fuel to the fire.
DMC Sinai-Grace Hospital. Image source: Detroit Free Press The nurses claim that in some instances shift nurses work for a 24-hour period, due to a shortage of necessary personnel for any given day or night crew. Sinai-Grace is located in Detroit’s hardest-hit northwest section of Detroit.
The incident prompted the Michigan Nurses Association to weigh in, saying in a statement, “Eventually, a tipping point is reached where the best thing any RN can do for their patients, their families, and their coworkers is to speak out rather than remain silent.”
Controversy ensued over whether the nurses essentially abandoned their patients or legitimately feared existing dangerous conditions make it impossible to continue.
Social media video reportedly showing some of the nurses who had walked out after the “sit-in” confrontation:
Sinai Grace Detroit night nurses were told to leave because they refused to work under unsafe conditions. Please stop spreading false information about those hardworking people. #Covid19 #CoronaVirus https://t.co/Q9HloUm81C
— Anu (Mary) (@HechoEnAfrica) April 6, 2020
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The largest union for registered nurses in the state continued in its statement: “Until hospitals start taking the concerns of nurses seriously, it’s only a matter of time before more actions like these occur. It is absolutely essential that hospitals start working with nurses and stop silencing our voices.”
This would indeed be a tipping point, also as hospitals and clinics face an unprecedented shortage in personal protective equipment, making the risk to front line responder even more difficult.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/08/2020 – 21:40 - Pentagon Considers Dreaded 'Stop Loss' To Retain Troop Numbers Amid COVID-19 Crisis
Pentagon Considers Dreaded ‘Stop Loss’ To Retain Troop Numbers Amid COVID-19 Crisis
The Pentagon is reportedly considering implementing its controversial “stop-loss” policy amid the coronavirus outbreak, which is impacting defense readiness due to growing numbers of troops in self-isolation and quarantine.
Coronavirus is also reducing the number of new recruits and incoming personnel, given the Army, Marines, and other branches have begun halting sending new members to boot camps.
Image via US Army/FOX The US Army announced Monday plans to immediately “stop sending new recruits to basic training in an attempt to slow the spread of the coronavirus in the military – a dramatic decision that Pentagon leaders fear could undermine national security and affect their ability to field forces for months if not years to come.”
This after the Marines made a similar decision. The pause in the new recruit pipeline is “conditional” based on two weeks at a time followed by a reassessment, the Army said.
The “stop-loss” goes back to Vietnam, but was last activated during the Bush administration, and was designed to prevent severe strain on DoD-wide troop numbers and force readiness during the so-called ‘war on terror’. Once in effect it forcibly retains enlisted troops beyond their planned departure date; it also delays officers’ retirement dates.
Defense Department spokeswoman Lisa Lawrence said in a statement:
“Given the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the nation as a whole and on the military’s ability to recruit and train new service members, the Department is looking at a wide range of options that will ensure enduring national security mission capability.”
However, Lawrence added it will “only be considered if absolutely necessary and is an alternative that we will work diligently to avoid.”
The #USArmy has temporarily delayed the movement of future Soldiers to Basic Combat Training effective April 6.
Release: https://t.co/KGOTntOWMI
Photo by Terrance Bell#ArmyCOVID19Fight pic.twitter.com/r2i4pXLbTl
— U.S. Army (@USArmy) April 6, 2020
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Currently over 1,500 uniformed service members have tested positive for COVID-19; however, contractors and military dependents have also been infected – making the actual numbers higher DoD-wide.
The stop-loss came to be so dreaded among US enlisted ranks — as it mandates they stay active duty beyond their contracts — that a 2008 Hollywood movie called Stop-Loss was made, detailing its negative effects on troop morale during the Iraq war.
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“You’ve been stop-lossed…”
Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/08/2020 – 21:20 - While The Masses Panicked Over A Virus: US House Wrote A Bill Will Ban "Assault Weapons"
While The Masses Panicked Over A Virus: US House Wrote A Bill Will Ban “Assault Weapons”
Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,
While the majority of the country has been laser-focused on the coronavirus, stocking up on decades worth of toilet paper, and mass purchasing Clorox wipes, the United States House of Representative wrote a bill that will ban “assault weapons.”
Representative Hank Johnson, a Georgia Democrat who sits on the House Judiciary Committee, introduced H.R. 5717 on January 30, which would, among other items, ban the purchasing and possession of assault weapons, according to USA Today. Senator Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., introduced in February the Senate version of the bill, S.3254. Not long after, the coronavirus hype was all over mainstream media burying the news of this draconian legislation.
The legislation introduced a variety of reforms with the intent to “end the epidemic of gun violence and build safer communities by strengthening Federal firearms laws and supporting gun violence research, intervention, and prevention initiatives.”
It would require state law enforcement authorities to be notified when a background check is denied and mandate the attorney general to issue an annual report to Congress detailing the number of background check denials.
It would also necessitate all firearm owners to obtain a federal firearms owner’s license, although purchases made before the enactment of the bill are exempt.
And the bill, as correctly stated by the Military Arms Channel, would make it illegal “to import, sell, manufacture, transfer, or possess, in or affecting interstate or foreign commerce, a semiautomatic assault weapon.”
The bill defines a semiautomatic assault weapon as any firearm with the capability to “accept a detachable magazine” and either a pistol grip, forward grip, grenade launcher, barrel shroud, threaded barrel or a folding, telescoping or detachable stock.
The government is, of course, exempted from the assault weapons ban. Law-enforcement officers (and other state agents) can possess these firearms as can those who are providing security at nuclear energy facilities. Firearms that are “manually operated by bolt, pump, lever or slide action,” have “been rendered permanently inoperable” or are antique are exempt from the ban as well.
Neither bill has passed, and it would still be needing President Donald Trump’s signature to become law. However, we thought it important to let you all know what’s going on behind the screens while we direct our attention to a viral outbreak. If you thought things were totalitarian now, just wait…it could get much uglier.
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GOOGLE Is Doing Whatever It Can To De-Monetize SHTFplan.com And Shadow-Ban us. During these TOUGH financial times, we ASPIRE to stay completely independent and pay our full staff, so we can continue to deliver VALUE to you. It is possible for you to HELP us, by supporting our COVID-19 expert survival report HERE! Thank You, ShtfPlan.com Staff
Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/08/2020 – 21:00 - Calls For Global Debt Jubilee Grow Louder As 'Anything Goes' Policy Mania Takes Over
Calls For Global Debt Jubilee Grow Louder As ‘Anything Goes’ Policy Mania Takes Over
About 140 global organizations and charities are calling for a worldwide Debt Jubilee to avoid some of the world’s poorest countries from collapsing into chaos amid the COVID-19 crisis, reported BBC News.
The British-based Jubilee Debt Campaign is leading the movement ahead of the G20 meeting this week.
“Developing countries are being hit by an unprecedented economic shock, and at the same time face an urgent health emergency,” said Sarah-Jayne Clifton, director of the Jubilee Debt Campaign.
“The suspension on debt payments called for by the IMF and World Bank saves money now, but kicks the can down the road and avoids actually dealing with the problem of spiraling debts.“
Clifton is urging for the immediate cancellation of 69 of the world’s poorest countries’ debt payments this year, which would free up at least $25 billion for the countries in 2020, and up to $50 billion if the jubilee was extended to the end of 2021.
“This is the fastest way to keep money in countries to use in responding to Covid-19, and to ensure public money is not wasted bailing out the profits of rich private speculators,” added Clifton.
The latest call for a Debt Jubilee should come as no surprise to ZeroHedge readers.
Over the last several decades, governments across the world have added insurmountable debts, leadingBill Buckler via The Privateer to say back in 2012 that the world has dived down a deep hole and into a trap that has “ensnared Japan more than two decades ago.”
And maybe Buckler’s Japanification fears for the rest of the world were right, because eight years later in 2020, central banks across the globe are still trying to print themselves out of a recession and or depression and into prosperity. And look at how it turned out for Japan, quantitative easing has failed and will continue to fail.
The problem today is that can-kicking yesterday’s problems has reached its limit.
Over the last several decades, governments across the world have added insurmountable debts. Sprott Money points out that debt-loads exceed 100% of GDP in many countries. The “ever-worsening indebtedness, and ever-larger interest payments on these unpayable debts, the precise definition of Debt Slavery. Throughout virtually the entire Western world, we are now well past this point-of-no-return,” warned Sprott Money.
This debt slavery has also become evident in emerging markets where countries are experiencing collapsing currencies, commodity prices, export earnings, and service and tourism revenues threaten to send many governments into default.
But calls for a Debt Jubilee are not limited to just emerging markets, but also developed economies. We noted several years ago that over the last 15 years, American consumers have taken out student loan debt, credit card debt, medical debts, personal loan. On a sovereign scale, the national debt is exploding, underfunded pension liabilities are rising, and Medicare costs are soaring.
The issue with both emerging and developed markets is how to manage all this debt as the virus has exposed the fragility of the financial system, with possible financial Armageddon nearing as world trade collapses.
And after decades of “kicking the can down the road” – it appears the piper finally wants his money. And why the talk of Debt Jubilee is starting to gain traction.
For some historical context of a Debt Jubilee, here is The Hutch Report’s take:
“Historians have counted around thirty episodes of general debt cancellations from 2400 to 1400 BC, noting they were occasions of great festivity which often involved the physical destruction of the tablets on which liabilities were recorded. One of the most famous episodes of debt forgiveness comes from ancient Babylon (modern-day Iraq). In 1792 BC, the self-proclaimed King Hammurabi of Babylon forgave all citizens’ debts owed to the government, high-ranking officials, and dignitaries.”
“Debt forgiveness was also practiced during the time of the Old Testament. In Jewish Mosaic Law, every seventh Sabbath year saw the wiping away of all debts, where creditors cancelled all the obligations of their fellow Israelites. Every 49th year (seven Sabbath years) was the ‘Year of the Jubilee’ when freedom from all debt and servitude was proclaimed throughout the land.”
Paul Craig Roberts has routinely pointed out that America is in dire need of a Debt Jubilee as wealth inequality is at extremes and insurmountable debts are mounting, rendering society unstable. In periods of economic collapse, like what is unfolding across the country today, the risk of a “social bomb” could be imminent.
To resolve the possibility of a nation imploding, Buckler, in 2012, said a modern Debt Jubilee is characterized as “quantitative easing for the public.” And now that MMT and helicopter money has become de rigueur, why not push the endgame of monetary malarkey – a global debt jubilee.
Oh, and remember the trillion-dollar-platinum-coin idea…
Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/08/2020 – 20:40 - Morgan Stanley Was One Of The Biggest Margin-Loan Providers To Luckin Coffee's Founder
Morgan Stanley Was One Of The Biggest Margin-Loan Providers To Luckin Coffee’s Founder
Among the banks who made margin loans to Luckin Coffee’s founder, one stands out in particular: Morgan Stanley.
Morgan Stanley was part of a consortium of banks that extended loans to Lu Zhengyao across three different funding rounds. Morgan Stanley is said to have put up about $100 million of a total of over $340 million in loans. Credit Suisse Group AG and Haitong International Securities Group were also named as lenders.
The recent fraud allegations at the company caused the loans to default, according to Bloomberg.
Additionally Goldman Sachs said that an entity controlled by Lu’s trust reneged on $518 million of margin debt and that lenders had seized up to 76.4 million LK shares as a result. It’s unclear whether or not the shares have been sold yet.
Goldman and Barclays’ were said to have about $70 million in exposure, each, to the loans. Credit Suisse and other banks that helped the company IPO and subsequently helped it raise convertible debt, have been sued as a result of the stock plunge.
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley is also one of the largest lenders to Elon Musk, with the Tesla CEO taking $50 million from the bank and mortgaging five homes with their help back in early 2019. The bank was also part of a consortium of lenders to Alibaba’s Chairmen back in 2015.
Recall, on April 2, we reported that Luckin Coffee had brought to the attention of the board information indicating that COO Jian Liu and several employees engaged in certain misconduct, including fabricating certain transactions, starting in Q2 of last year. It was estimated that total ‘fake’ revenue was around $310 million.
Shares immediately crashed:
Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/08/2020 – 20:20 - We Won't Be Getting "Back To Normal"… Not Soon… Not Ever!
We Won’t Be Getting “Back To Normal”… Not Soon… Not Ever!
Authored by Daisy Luther via The Organic Prepper blog,
When will we get back to normal?
If you yearn for the days before COVID-19 swept across the planet, I regret to inform you that those days are gone.
This isn’t a warm and fuzzy blog post telling you that everything is going to be all right. If you’re looking for reassurance that “we’ve got this,” I’m afraid I can’t provide it. This article wasn’t written to console or coddle you, so if that’s what you’re seeking, you’re going to want to stop reading right now.
If, however, you want a reality check on what I believe we’re really facing, I’m not going to hold back. You’ve been warned.
We’re not even halfway through.
You may have seen some optimistic reports recently that the “worst” is behind us. It would certainly be lovely if that’s the case, but in my opinion, this ordeal is just getting started. I wrote an article previously about how long we could expect our current state of lockdown to last using the timelines of China and Italy as points of comparison, and based on that, we are 17 days in as of the writing of this article on April 8.
The lockdown of Wuhan is expected to last 77 days. If our own timeline continues to echo that of China, then we’re not even halfway there. We have at least 2 months left and this doesn’t include any new clusters when the lockdowns are totally lifted or any second waves. We’ve barely begun living in our current state of purgatory and this will continue (and most likely worsen) for quite some time.
So if you’re seeing this as a little break after which you’ll pick up with your life exactly where you left off, you’re going to be extremely disappointed. You need to adapt now because if you don’t, the future is going to be very hard on you mentally.
Use this time to think about the changes you can make to meet the needs of your family. Learn new skills, practice old ones, and get your head in the game.
The supply chain may never be the same.
Nearly every store in America (the ones that are still open, anyway) has glaring bare spots on their inventory. Who would have expected paper products to be the “gold” of our apocalypse? There was an original run on supplies back in early March when the general public realized, “Hey, this is for real!” and razed store shelves bare. Even though preppers already had most of their supplies put back by the time this happened, we were no less vilified by the media as panicked shoppers got into physical altercations over toilet paper and macaroni.
Government officials told everyone to “calm down” and “just shop for the week.” They promised that if we did, everything would be back in stock in no time. Many of us knew even then that this wasn’t true. The ports in California were empty of shipping containers from China where many of our essential goods are produced. There’s no inventory with which to replenish the inventory.
It’s been more than a month since that first shopping frenzy and unfortunately, supplies are still limited in most parts of the country. A reasonably-sized package of toilet paper can’t be had for love or money, nor can one easily locate cleaning wipes, paper towels, 20-pound bags of rice, and bottles of bleach. Other supplies are available, but sparsely and often in limited quantities: meat, eggs, butter, dried goods like pasta and rice, and canned goods. Prices have approximately doubled on many items.
Don’t expect this to clear up any time soon. Abundant inventory may well be a thing of the past. Many of the products sold in American stores are made in China. Even much of our meat that is a “product of the USA” is processed in China. Obviously, China is going to replenish its own inventory before exporting goods to us. Here’s a list of goods that we import from China that we may not be receiving in the same quantities in the future.
As well, the days of just “running to the store” to replace things or pick up a single ingredient are gone. Now, in many parts of the country, you have to walk through a cordoned off maze to enter a Walmart or Costco store. Only a certain number of people can be there at a time. Shopping means you’re risking your own health if someone else is ill, or you are ill and don’t realize it, you’re risking the health of others. It’s no longer quick, easy, inexpensive, or pleasant in any way.
And the generous offerings of days gone by are disappearing. In some areas, the store may have things you want but because the government there doesn’t consider them “essential,” you won’t be allowed to buy them. Ordering online may soon be your only option for things like craft supplies, clothing, decorative items, and shoes. And even when you order online, it may take quite some time before the goods arrive. Amazon has said it is prioritizing necessities, leaving people with uncertain shipping times.
And it could get even worse. What happens if the US Postal Service stops running? A House committee has warned the USPS could actually be forced to cease operations by June. So, if you think it’s hard to get supplies now, just wait.
The rules will get more restrictive and violence will ensue.
Every state with some form of movement restriction (lockdown for lack of a better word) has its own set of rules which are handed down by the respective governors in the form of an executive order. Some states are more restrictive than others and a small handful of states have no restrictions whatsoever.
The other difference between states is the methods of enforcement. Some states have the rules on the books but do little to enforce them. Others are levying fines. One municipality in Louisiana found it amusing to announce the beginning of the curfew with the Purge siren, terrifying people who were already on edge.
Don’t expect this gentle approach to continue. While I don’t think we’ll go full-Wuhan and weld people into their apartments, our Constitutional rights are already being trampled in numerous ways.
Texas and Florida have checkpoints where they’re testing travelers for health problems, escorting them to quarantine, or turning them away. Rhode Island police went so far as to go door-to-door with the National Guard, searching for “New Yorkers” who had fled the virus in their home state.
Most states have closed non-essential businesses and schools for the foreseeable future. Local authorities are beginning to crack down on groups of people and innocent Americans risk being questioned when they leave their homes to walk the dog or go to the store. Last week, thousands of Americans considered essential workers were given “travel papers” to show the authorities if they’re stopped when they are going to work. Travel papers. In the United States of America.
If you can’t satisfy the requirements laid out by your state or local government, you could face fines and even misdemeanor charges for breaking stay-at-home orders. (source)
Expect as the rules and enforcement efforts become more stringent for people to balk. As the money being dished out by the government dwindles to a trickle and as promises made by the government get broken, people will become more and more desperate.
Imagine. Your ability to make a living was suddenly taken away through no fault of your own. You’re all but under house arrest. Your government is threatening you with fines, incarceration, and even possible violence. Your family is hungry and you have nothing to feed them. What would you do in that situation?
There’s virtually no way this continues without violence ensuing, either out of rebellion or hunger or possibly both. Fewer and fewer police officers are available to respond as more of them get diagnosed with COVID-19. In New York City, nearly ten thousand first responders are ill. When you put all this together, it’s a recipe for violent crime.
The economy will be devastated.
We’re already watching our economy get destroyed right in front of our eyes. Never in history – including the Great Depression – have so many Americans been unemployed. And the fact that they all became unemployed at once is even worse. By the end of March, 7.1 million people had filed for unemployment due to COVID-19.
Many of the people who lost their jobs are the ones who are least able to afford it – hourly workers. Those who work at or around minimum wage are less likely to have a savings account to see them through the rough spot.
Then there’s the fact that the government appears to have lied. Others who became unemployed were initially told they qualified, but now the application process is proving impossible. Gig workers, such as drivers for Uber, Lyft, and Doordash, are being asked to supply pay stubs, something they just don’t have. It just isn’t how it works.
Those who have applied are waiting weeks to hear back from state unemployment programs. Their applications will likely be rejected, leaving them without any income for an indefinite amount of time. The advice for these workers?
A spokesperson for the New York State Department of Labor says the guidance requires workers who are not usually eligible for unemployment benefits to apply to state programs, get rejected, and then apply again for the federally funded pandemic assistance. (source)
So for all the big talk about making unemployment easy to get and simple to apply for, it isn’t working out that way at all for many people.
And of course, the economic issues are bigger than that. Small businesses are in big trouble. Those who are not able to find a way to operate during these difficult times still have overhead and bills. They have rent and utilities for their place of business. Many have inventory payments that were due net-30. Restaurants that can’t make the conversion to takeout and delivery, fitness studios, gyms, clothing stores, and many more independent businesses may never reopen after the government-imposed hiatus.
One by one, families across America are looking at disappearing income, higher prices, and with shelter-in-place orders nearly everywhere, no real way to seek new employment. Unemployment, if and when it comes, is only a short term solution. If ever there as a chance to usher in Universal Basic Income and see people welcome it with open arms, this crisis would be it. Of course, UBI brings with it many problems, not the least of which is a lord-and-serf relationship and a slippery slope toward the social credit system, also brought to us by China just like the COVID-19 outbreak.
Right now we’re looking at short-term effects, but we will feel the effects of this situation for a very long time. In fact, it’s likely to change the economy forever.
As the economy continues to plummet because people are only purchasing the bare necessities, we’ll see other issues arise. How will you pay your rent or mortgage if your job qualifications are in a field that is now considered a luxury? How will you keep your utilities on when you’re not making any money? How will you feed your family, keep a roof over your head, pay for medical care, and maintain a vehicle?
If you’ve never been through personal financial hardship before, you could be in for a terrible reality check when the cost of your most basic essentials is out of reach. But many of us have been there. We can tell you that it often makes you feel powerless – it’s difficult and humiliating, but you can get through it.
If you’re a business owner, how will you keep operating if you have no working capital? How can you hire people if you don’t know whether you’ll be able to keep them on board for more than a couple of pay periods? How can you buy more inventory and can you even acquire that inventory anymore? Will you be able to get the parts you need to repair items if you run a repair service business?
As you can see, there are more questions than answers. (source)
We’re just at the beginning of this bumpy ride, and there’s really no place that it leads except to an economic depression even worse than the one that took place in the 1920s.
We’ll never “get back to normal.”
For all the people wondering when we’re going to get back to normal, I’m very sorry to say, the answer to that is “never.”
There are jobs lost that are never coming back. Businesses that were successful may never reopen, and if they do, unless they can pivot to cater to necessities, they won’t last long in an economy with widespread unemployment.
And medically speaking, we are a long way from “normal” too.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told a coronavirus press briefing on Monday that the world may never return to the “normal” that was known before the outbreak.
…”When we get back to normal, we will go back to the point where we can function as a society,” he said. He continued, “If you want to get back to pre-coronavirus, that might not ever happen in the sense that the threat is there.” (source)
What’s more, the virus will be back for another wave.
Fauci said Sunday that people must be prepared for a resurgence next year, which is why officials fighting the pandemic are pushing for a vaccine and clinical trials for therapeutic interventions so “we will have interventions that we did not have” when this started. (source)
We could be looking at on and off periods of social distancing for eighteen months to two years before this is over. Here’s what the models suggest:
Under this model, the researchers conclude, social distancing and school closures would need to be in force some two-thirds of the time—roughly two months on and one month off—until a vaccine is available, which will take at least 18 months (if it works at all). They note that the results are “qualitatively similar for the US.”
Eighteen months!? Surely there must be other solutions. Why not just build more ICUs and treat more people at once, for example?
Well, in the researchers’ model, that didn’t solve the problem. Without social distancing of the whole population, they found, even the best mitigation strategy—which means isolation or quarantine of the sick, the old, and those who have been exposed, plus school closures—would still lead to a surge of critically ill people eight times bigger than the US or UK system can cope with…
…How about imposing restrictions for just one batch of five months or so? No good—once measures are lifted, the pandemic breaks out all over again, only this time it’s in winter, the worst time for overstretched health-care systems.
And what if we decided to be brutal: set the threshold number of ICU admissions for triggering social distancing much higher, accepting that many more patients would die? Turns out it makes little difference. Even in the least restrictive of the Imperial College scenarios, we’re shut in more than half the time.
This isn’t a temporary disruption. It’s the start of a completely different way of life. (source)
For the foreseeable future, it appears that this is our life.
What will the future look like?
At this point, it’s pretty difficult to imagine what a future filled with waves of a pandemic virus, a devastated economy, and great loss will look like.
But some of the things we can expect are intermittent periods of social distancing, periods of interaction. Businesses like restaurants, movie theaters, bars, malls, travel experiences, and sports venues will never be the same and if they survive, will only be able to operate intermittently.
Homeschooling will be a long-term thing – children will not be able to be in a regular school setting during outbreaks.
We’re going to be looking at an entirely different world, one full of six-foot distances, immunity passports, and dystopian tracking methods using our phones.
One particularly unsettling possibility is a picture is painted by Technology Review.
We don’t know exactly what this new future looks like, of course. But one can imagine a world in which, to get on a flight, perhaps you’ll have to be signed up to a service that tracks your movements via your phone. The airline wouldn’t be able to see where you’d gone, but it would get an alert if you’d been close to known infected people or disease hot spots. There’d be similar requirements at the entrance to large venues, government buildings, or public transport hubs. There would be temperature scanners everywhere, and your workplace might demand you wear a monitor that tracks your temperature or other vital signs. Where nightclubs ask for proof of age, in future they might ask for proof of immunity—an identity card or some kind of digital verification via your phone, showing you’ve already recovered from or been vaccinated against the latest virus strains.
We’ll adapt to and accept such measures, much as we’ve adapted to increasingly stringent airport security screenings in the wake of terrorist attacks. The intrusive surveillance will be considered a small price to pay for the basic freedom to be with other people.
As usual, however, the true cost will be borne by the poorest and weakest. People with less access to health care, or who live in more disease-prone areas, will now also be more frequently shut out of places and opportunities open to everyone else. Gig workers—from drivers to plumbers to freelance yoga instructors—will see their jobs become even more precarious. (source)
Never let a good crisis go to waste, right?
This is necessarily how it’s going to happen – it’s only one possible scenario of the many unpalatable futures that are currently emerging. None of them are scenarios that embrace freedom or the joy of anonymity.
The life we knew is not coming back. But it’s better to know this and begin to think about how to mitigate these changes. Think about how you can earn a living, how you can teach your children about freedom in an unfree world, and how you can resist being a figure on a screen, constantly monitored for a spike in temperature.
And who knows? Maybe Americans will return to their independent ways and say, “No more.” But the changes that took place after 9/11 suggest otherwise. Unless a fearful populace can be convinced that freedom is more important than safety, this will lead to more restrictions and some kind of Pandemic Patriot Act 2.0.
We don’t know what’s coming, but it will be different.
Facing uncertainty is always difficult. But by focusing on the things you can do, it can be managed.
I can’t tell you exactly what the future holds. But I can tell you that the lives we lived prior to COVID-19 are not going to re-emerge like nothing ever happened. And every day the lockdowns continue lessens the possibility of that even more.
You need to accept that now so you can best figure out how to navigate the post-COVID world that awaits. This doesn’t mean you’ll never be able to be happy again. It doesn’t mean you’ll lose everything. It means that things are going to be different and if you don’t accept that, your acclimation period will be dangerously long. As Selco always says, the sooner you understand the new rules, the better off you’ll be.
Things will be different.
We will adjust. We will adapt. We will survive.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/08/2020 – 20:00
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