Dec 14

Today’s News 14th December 2020

  • China's Global Power Tops The US? New Measures Say No!
    China’s Global Power Tops The US? New Measures Say No!
    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/13/2020 – 23:30

    Authored by Hal Brands, op-ed via Bloomberg.com,

    GDP and military spending matter, but so do networks of allies and “resilience”…

    Ever since the U.S. reached the pinnacle of global power after World War II, Americans have worried it wouldn’t remain there. Waves of “declinism” rolled across the country after Sputnik in the late 1950s, the Vietnam War, the oil shocks of the 1970s, the rise of Japan in the 1980s, and the Iraq War and the global financial crisis of the 2000s.

    Now, amid a global pandemic and at the onset of a long struggle with China, the question of American decline has taken on renewed urgency.

    The trouble with these debates is that power is as elusive as it is essential: It can be devilishly hard to measure outside of major war. (In war, it’s easy: Who won?) Recently, though, several innovative studies have sharpened our understanding of what power is and how to measure it — studies that are mostly, but not entirely, reassuring for a status-obsessed superpower.

    Traditionally, measures of power focused on attributes such as population, energy consumption and production of steel or other indicators of industrial strength. In the information age, these indices tell us relatively little about whether a country can get its way in world affairs.

    It is still common, though, to assess power through blunt measures like gross domestic product or military spending. Analysts who argue that Beijing is overtaking the U.S. habitually note that China’s GDP may soon surpass America’s. But GDP is a snapshot of activity rather than a measure of overall wealth. Some countries that spend massively on military power, such as Saudi Arabia, are quite useless in projecting it.

    So how can we determine the balance of advantage in a long rivalry? The groundbreaking academic work is giving us better answers.

    The first category focuses on refining our grasp of economic and military might. Michael Beckley of the American Enterprise Institute (where I am also a fellow) has developed a model that measures net power rather than gross power by accounting for things such as security costs (“the price a government pays to police and protect its citizens”) and production costs (how much it costs, in material and environmental degradation, to build that coal power plant).

    He finds, not surprisingly, that the U.S. fares far better than China, an authoritarian state with vast internal security costs and a prodigiously wasteful approach to stimulating growth. Similarly, it is critical that American per capita GDP dwarfs China’s, because that means the U.S. has more wealth left over, after it feeds its population, to pursue global influence. Other work has better accounted for the way wealth accrues over time, and found that the U.S. will still have far more overall economic power than China even after China’s GDP eclipses America’s.

    The second category better captures the reality of “network power.” In a landmark paper published in 2019, Abraham Newman of Georgetown University and Henry Farrell, my colleague at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, argue that the centrality of the dollar to international financial networks — which persists, despite decades of handwringing about its decline — gives the U.S. outsized coercive leverage. Scholars have also affirmed something that policymakers have long understood: America punches far above its own weight in global affairs, because of the network of military, economic and diplomatic partners it leads. China has nothing equivalent.

    The third category accounts for less tangible forms of power. For decades, analysts have grasped that soft power — the degree of admiration and emulation a country inspires — matters enormously.

    An intriguing study by Ted Hopf of the National University of Singapore, Bentley Allan of Johns Hopkins and Srdjan Vucetic of the University of Ottawa demonstrates that, even though America’s global favorability ratings have plummeted under President Donald Trump, there remains strong global support for democracy and free-market economic policies.

    That’s a body blow for an authoritarian, mercantilist China, which, the authors predict, “is unlikely to become the hegemon in the near term.” It also helps explain why European states are systematically turning away from Beijing even amid enormous turbulence in their relations with the U.S.

    So does all this imply smooth sailing for the reigning superpower? Not necessarily. The U.S. could deplete its network power by abusing it: Overusing financial sanctions and trade barriers, particularly against allies, could encourage countries to seek ways of opting out of networks America dominates. (The European Union made tentative moves in this direction after the U.S. withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal and threatened sanctions against European companies that did business with Tehran.)

    If Washington steps back from leading an open world economy, as it did under Trump, it will lose some of the influence that comes with that role. And if the U.S. damages its democracy at home, as the president is trying desperately to do on his way out of office, that would have vast implications for U.S. soft power abroad.

    Finally, there is at least one category of power in which the U.S. is struggling. This would be the concept of “resilience.” A globalized world creates vulnerability to international shocks, whether caused by financial instability, climate change or disease. Resilience is a measure of how well a country can rebound.

    The U.S. has demonstrated one extremely powerful form of resilience during the coronavirus pandemic: Its fantastically innovative private sector, in coordination with the federal government, is helping to lead the world out of this nightmare with vaccines developed at, well, “warp speed.”

    But the fact that U.S. society is so crippled right now (millions of kids are “attending” school from their living rooms or dining rooms), that per capita deaths are relatively high compared with the toll in many advanced democracies, and that political polarization has prevented Americans from even coming to a common understanding of the threat Covid-19 poses, is more alarming.

    According to Bloomberg’s pandemic resilience rankings, the U.S. is only 18th — well behind China — in its response to the pandemic. That’s a flashing red light in an age in which so many transnational threats will test America’s capacity to adapt.

    The more we learn about power, the more we realize the U.S. still has great advantages in the contest for global leadership. The longer the pandemic goes on, the more we learn about America’s vulnerabilities, as well.

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  • Michael Jordan's New Golf Course Uses Drone To Deliver Beer To Golfers
    Michael Jordan’s New Golf Course Uses Drone To Deliver Beer To Golfers
    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/13/2020 – 23:00

    Michael Jordan’s new golf course in Florida is the latest example of robots, drones, and the uncertain future of work for humans. 

    The course, called The Grove XXIII, has opted to deliver snacks and beer to golfers via a drone. 

    Traditionally, food and beverages on courses are delivered to golfers on refreshment golf carts, operated with one or two servers. 

    As shown in the video below, the last-mile delivery, from the clubhouse to the golfer, is conducted by drone. 

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    Drone deliveries on the course will likely be huge cost-savings for the club, increasing margins because golf carts and servers are no longer required – just a drone operator. 

    As for all those teenagers working courses during the summer break – well, be careful in this decade, technology will not just result in a displacement of their jobs – it will also lead to the displacement of millions of other jobs, in other industries, in the coming years. 

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  • Why Michael Morell Cannot Be CIA Director
    Why Michael Morell Cannot Be CIA Director
    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/13/2020 – 22:30

    Authored by Ray McGovern via ConsortiumNews.com,

    As President-elect Joe Biden names his cabinet and other chief advisers, what has escaped wide attention is the fact that none of his hawkish national security advisers — except for his nominee for defense secretary, Gen. Lloyd Austin — has served in the military.

    Former CIA Deputy Director Michael Morell, who is reportedly on Biden’s short list for CIA director, shares that non-veteran status, one of the reasons along with other skeletons from Morell’s past that make him singularly unfit to lead the CIA.

    During my 27 years at the CIA, I worked under nine CIA directors — three of them (Stan Turner, Bill Colby, and George H.W. Bush) at close remove — and served in all four of the agency’s main directorates.

    Having closely followed the past-two-decade corruption of my profession — in particular, what the chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee called the “uncorroborated, contradicted, or even non-existent” intelligence manufactured to “justify” the attack on Iraq, I have on occasion offered suggestions for remediation, particularly during transition periods like this one. (Links to five such efforts in the past appear below.)

    Whiz Kids

    Decades of unfortunate experience show that over-dependence on bright, but inexperienced “best and brightest” can spell disaster. War gaming and theorizing at Princeton and Johns Hopkins have yielded knights with benightedly naive, politics-drenched decisions that get U.S. troops killed for no good reason.

    Michael Morell, acting director of the CIA, Feb. 14, 2013. (DoD Photo By Glenn Fawcett)

    Even if Gen. Lloyd Austin is confirmed as secretary of defense, the whippersnappers already appointed by Joe Biden will probably be able to outmaneuver the general and promote half-baked policies and operations bereft of needed military input — not to mention common sense from the likes of Gen. Austin who knows something of war.

    The current generation of “whiz kids” — the well-heeled, politically astute chickenhawks Biden has appointed — will always “know better” and — if past is precedent — are likely to pooh pooh what Gen. Austin may advise, assuming he is able to get a word in edgewise.

    Moreover, ambitious former generals like David Petraeus — many of them now on the outside of the proverbial revolving door making big bucks in the MICIMATT (Military-Industrial-Congressional-Intelligence-Media-Academia-Think-Tank) complex — will not hesitate to weigh in with their own self-interested support to the chickenhawks, fostering the notion that military threats from notional enemies warrant still more funding for the defense contractors on whose boards so many alumni generals sit.

    Who does not remember the braggadocio accompanying the criminal attack on Iraq, the full-throated support of journalists like David Sanger of The New York Times, and the chest-thumping of Bush/Cheney neocons saying “Real men go to Tehran?” (Sanger is still at it, sitting on the “Judith Miller Chair for Journalism”.)

    Clearly, one does not have to go as far back as Vietnam for noxious examples of the harm that can be done by these “best and brightest,” albeit inexperienced advisers — whether out of the myth of American exceptionalism, ignorance of post-WWII military history, or pure arrogance.

    It may be helpful to recall that Vice President Dick Cheney, the archdeacon of the chickenhawks, acquired five draft deferments during Vietnam. (So did his successor as vice president, the president-elect.)

    Cheney, Tenet and Bush (White House photo)

    Cheney, of course, was the driving force behind the attack on Iraq. He had appointed himself Bush’s principal intelligence officer (usurping the role of CIA Director George Tenet who made not a murmur of protest) and went first and biggest with the Big Lie on (ephemeral) weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. Here’s Cheney in his kick-off speech to the Veterans of Foreign Wars on Aug. 26, 2002: “Simply stated, there is no doubt that Saddam Hussein now has weapons of mass destruction.”

    Simply stated, Tenet dutifully followed White House orders to “fix” the intelligence to support Cheney’s accusations against Iraq. Tenet did so formally in the deceitful National Intelligence Estimate of Oct. 1, 2002 — which earned the sobriquet “The Whore of Babylon.”

    It was successfully used to get Congress to enable Bush/Cheney to make war on Iraq, and eventually create havoc in the whole region. In his memoir Tenet gave the laurels to Morell for “coordinating the CIA review” of Secretary of State Colin Powell’s UN speech that let slip the dogs of war. (Details on that below)

    Cakewalks and Cubbyholes

    Cheney, the quintessential chickenhawk, surrounded himself with advisers of the same bent. One pitiable example was armchair warrior Kenneth Adelman, who had been director of the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency under President Reagan. In a Washington Post op-ed of Feb. 13, 2002, Adelman wrote: “I believe demolishing Hussein’s military power and liberating Iraq would be a cakewalk.”

    Two years later, Adelman wrote an equally pathetic op-ed, insisting that he and his neoconservative friends had been right on everything except Iraq possessing WMD, Iraqi factions cooperating after Saddam Hussein was deposed, and “probably” on close ties between Saddam and al-Qaeda.

    As for Cheney himself, he did memorize some weapons nomenclature vocabulary, but could not avoid an occasional faux pas betraying his lack of familiarity with things on the ground. Nine months after the attack on Iraq, when WMD were still nowhere to be found, NPR asked Cheney whether he had given up on finding them.

    “No, we haven’t,” he said. “It’s going to take some additional, considerable period of time in order to look in all the cubbyholes and ammo dumps and all the places in Iraq where you’d expect to find something like that.” (The continued, quixotic search cost not only a billion dollars but the lives of U.S. troops.).

    The amateur but opinionated Cheney was the largest fly in the intelligence ointment. Four months into the war it got so blatantly bad that we Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS) sent a Memorandum to President Bush entitled “Intelligence Unglued”, recommending that he “ask for Cheney’s immediate resignation.”

    Naiveté on War

    In a recent, disturbingly graphic article entitled “Biden’s young Hawk: The Case Against Jake Sullivan,” retired Army Maj. Danny Sjursen broadly hinted that President Biden’s national security adviser should at least look at the photos. (An editor’s note in the piece explained that such photos are almost totally absent from Establishment media: “Graphic images of war and suffering are included with this text. We believe it is important for the world to witness what their taxes, votes and apathy may be supporting.” )

    Jake Sullivan, seated farthest back, as national security advisor to vice president, in a meeting with President Barack Obama and advisers, Aug. 29, 2013. (White House, Pete Souza)

    In his article Sjursen finds himself wondering “whether Sullivan’s ever seen a dead child, gazed upon the detritus of American empire, waded through the sights and smells of our indecency. And, worse still, I wondered whether it’d matter much if he had. …”

    The national security adviser is gatekeeper to the president, with the gate strong or weak depending — at least in concept — on what the president wants. In the normal course of business, the CIA director and the director of national intelligence would go through the security adviser to get to the president. Cabinet secretaries in the national security arena and, when appropriate, FBI directors often use the same channel.

    What seems important here, though widely overlooked, is that no Biden national security appointee/nominee except Gen. Austin has apparently served a day in the military. Not Sullivan, not DNI nominee Avril Haines, not secretary of state nominee Antony Blinken, and not FBI Director Christopher Wray.

    This is just one factor that should disqualify Morell for director of Central Intelligence (DCI). There are already far too many fledgling warhawks-without war experience. In Morell’s case, though, there are many other factors — some even more important — that disqualify him. His playing fast and loose regarding the legality and effectiveness of torture has been in the headlines recently, thanks to Senate Intelligence Committee member Ron Wyden (D-OR), who called Morell a “torture apologist.”

    It has been a challenge to record Morell’s many artful dodges, but Consortium News did publish “On Iraq/Torture, Still in Denial”, as Morell began to peddle his memoir in May 2015.

    Two of Morell’s tours de force with Charlie Rose in 2016, in which Morell advocates killing Russians and Iranians in Syria, were covered by CN.

    More revealing still — and damning of his chances for another try at CIA — is an article, “Rise of Another CIA Yes Man.” That piece was written when Morell was picked to be Gen. David Petraeus’s deputy at CIA; it ends with personal comments by intelligence professionals who knew Morell well.

    The article also includes citations from Tenet’s own memoir, including encomia he threw in Morell’s direction, one of which should actually be enough to bar Morell from any future role in intelligence.

    Tenet to the left of Powell at the United Nations on Feb. 5. 2003. (Wikimedia Commons)

    In Tenet’s book, At the Center of the Storm, he writes that Morell “coordinated the CIA review” of the intelligence used by Secretary of State Colin Powell in his infamous Feb. 5, 2003 speech to the UN Security Council on the threat from (non-existent) WMD in Iraq.

    Tenet, who sat directly behind Powell on that day, pointed out that Morell had served as regular briefer to President George W. Bush. It has been reported that, of the CIA’s finished intelligence product on Iraq, it was The President’s Daily Brief delivered by Morell that most exaggerated the danger from Iraq.

    Morell fluttered quickly up CIA ranks as the yes-sir protege of two CIA directors who were, arguably, the worst of them all — “Slam-Dunk” Tenet and the-Russians-hacked-so-Trump-won John Brennan. During the presidential campaign of 2016, as Brennan and his accomplices in the National Security State worked behind the scenes to sabotage candidate Donald Trump, Morell dropped any pretense of nonpartisanship — which used to be the hallmark of an intelligence professional.

    From retirement (but with eyes on the big prize he coveted in a new Democratic administration), Morell openly backed the Democratic candidate in a highly unusual op-ed in The New York Times on August 5, 2016: “I Ran the C.I.A. Now I’m Endorsing Hillary Clinton.”

    Iraq: the Crucible

    In my view, the key gauge in weighing qualifications for a national security position like CIA director is whether a candidate showed good judgment before the misbegotten, calamitous attack on Iraq.

    Morell flunks that test outright. Accordingly, he can hardly be expected to be one of the calmer voices in a room of still less experienced fledgling hawks who, to quote Maj. Sjursen, have never “waded through the sights and smells of our indecency” in killing and maiming abroad. With Morell in the room, there would be greater risk of the U.S. getting sucked into still more misadventures overseas.

    What did Morell tell Bush about Iraq? In Tenet’s memoir, he describes Morell as “the perfect guy” to brief President Bush, noting that Morell and Bush hit it off “almost immediately”. Morell added later: “I was President Bush’s first intelligence briefer, so I briefed him kind of the entire year of 2001.”

    ‘The Entire Year 2001’

    So, was Iraqi President Saddam Hussein trying to acquire “weapons of mass destruction” during 2001? The first (and honest) answer was ”No” — if Powell and National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice are to be believed. Here’s what they said at the time — Powell publicly during a speech in Cairo and Rice to CNN five months later.

    Powell on Feb. 24, 2001:

    “He [Saddam Hussein] has not developed any significant capability with respect to weapons of mass destruction. He is unable to project conventional power against his neighbors.”

    Rice told CNN’s John King on July 29, 2001:

    “We are able to keep arms from him [Saddam Hussein]. His military forces have not been rebuilt.”

    Is this what Morell told Bush just six weeks before 9/11? Did Morell ever explain how Iraq could have developed, purchased, or stolen copious WMD in one year’s time?

    Rice. (Wikipedia)

    And when Morell briefed Bush right after 9/11, was the president fixated on Saddam Hussein, as counterterrorism chief Richard Clarke describes him in his book Against All Enemies? According to Clarke, on 9/12 Bush told him “to go back over everything, everything. See if Saddam did this. See if he’s linked in any way.”

    Clarke says he was incredulous, replying, “But, Mr. President, al-Qaeda did this.” In later interviews Clarke added that he felt he was being intimidated to find a link between the attacks and Iraq.

    Did Morell play it straight and tell Bush (as Clarke did) that Iraq had nothing to do with al-Qaeda or the attacks of 9/11? Did Clarke share that vignette at the time with Tenet and Morell?

    And what about those notional Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq? After 9/11, did Morell take his cue from Cheney, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, and Tenet and give President Bush the impression that Iraq already had all manner of WMD and was on the threshold of acquiring a nuclear weapon?

    Sham Dunk

    Later, in December 2002 when Morell’s boss Tenet assured Bush and Cheney that CIA could prove, slam-dunkedly, the existence of WMD in Iraq, did Morell ever ask himself how both Powell and Rice could have been so far off base the year before?

    Far more likely, Morell knew what the game was, as he watched Rice do a fancy pirouette, telling CNN’s Wolf Blitzer on Sept. 8, 2002 that “Saddam Hussein is actively pursuing a nuclear weapon. We do know that there have been shipments into Iraq of aluminum tubes that really are only suited to nuclear weapons programs.”

    The most accomplished engineers and technical intelligence analysts in the intelligence community knew that the aluminum tubes story was BS. In the finest tradition of intelligence analysis, they remained impervious to the political winds. They insisted that associating those aluminum tubes with nuclear weapons development was wrong and they could not be persuaded to go along. And yet that bogus information got into Powell’s February 2003 speech at the UN.

    In Morell’s memoir he wrote that he wanted to apologize to Powell. Morell says, “We said he [Saddam Hussein] has chemical weapons, he has a biological weapons production capability, and he’s restarting his nuclear weapons program. We were wrong on all three of those.”

    But not my fault, wrote Morell, who tried to shift the blame by claiming he was not a senior official at the time.

    How does that square with Tenet writing that Morell “coordinated the CIA review” of Powell’s speech? Whom to believe? However begrudging must be any trust given “slam-dunk” and “we-do-not-torture”Tenet, he presumably would have less reason to dissimulate than Morell in this particular case.

    Assuming Morell did “coordinate the CIA review” of Powell’s speech, did Morell know about the strong dissent on the infamous aluminum tubes?

    More important, did he know that CIA operators had recruited and “turned” Naji Sabri, the Iraqi foreign minister (who Saddam Hussein continued to believe was still working for him) and, with the help of British intelligence, had “turned” the chief of Iraqi intelligence, Habbush, as well.

    After the reporting from these two sources on other issues and after their access to secret information was evaluated and judged to be genuine, President Bush was told that Sabri and Habbush both said there were no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. Sabri’s information was given to the president by Tenet on Sept. 18, 2002; Habbush’s in late Jan. 2003. 

    Did Tenet not share that with Morell before he coordinated CIA input into Powell’s speech?

    Clearly, this first-hand intelligence from proven sources with excellent access did not suit the Cheney/Bush narrative for war on Iraq. The president’s staff told CIA operatives not to forward additional reporting on this issue from these sources, explaining that Bush did not want more information about weapons of mass destruction; rather, it was now about “regime change.”

    McGovern questions Clapper at Carnegie Endowment in Washington. (Alli McCracken)

    Did Morell know about this when he was “coordinating” input into Powell’s disastrous speech? It is a safe bet that Morell was fully aware of the con job he was “coordinating” — as did other senior intelligence officials.

    In his own memoir, former Director of National Intelligence (and, during Iraq, director of imagery analysis), James Clapper takes a share of the blame for the Iraq WMD fiasco. Clapper puts the blame for “the failure” to find the (non-existent) WMD “squarely on the shoulders of the administration members who were pushing a narrative of a rogue WMD program in Iraq and on the intelligence officers, including me, who were so eager to help that we found what wasn’t really there.” (emphasis added) .

    Regarding Morell’s “I-confess-they-did-it” apology to Powell, the still-youngish Morell has not stopped lusting for an eventual seat at the table, so he apparently thought it a smart move politically. Typically, Powell did not react — as far as is known. Nor has the conflict-averse Powell summoned the cohones to say clearly what he thinks of how Tenet, Morell, et al. sold him a bill of goods on Iraq.

    In the “where-are-they-now?” department, Tenet quit in July 2004 and fled to Wall Street to be joined the following year by Jami Miscik, who was deputy director for intelligence during the Iraq fiasco. She “lucked into” a nice job at Lehman Brothers before it went bust.

    Note to readers: If you know someone advising the Biden team on selecting a director for CIA, please pass this along.

    Finally, those interested in suggestions from the experience of previous transition teams, please click on one or two of the links below. The key issues tend to remain the same. Above all, integrity counts.

    *  *  *

    Additional Readings

    1 — A Compromised Central Intelligence Agency: What Can Be Done?

    By Ray McGovern, 2004

    Chapter 4 in “Patriotism, Democracy, and Common Sense: Restoring America’s Promise at Home and Abroad”, Rowman & Littlefield, 2004

    Ray’s chapter follows chapters by Alan Curtis (editor), Gary Hart, and Jessica Mathews.

    Link to Chapter 4 text:

    https://books.google.com/books?id=J9kWYfUTdg0C&pg=PA91&lpg=PA91&dq=%22A+Compromised+Central+Intelligence+Agency:+What+Can+Be+Done?&source=bl&ots=plCvTEGgpS&sig=xcRJvzyCaRKYbcx_x353V62MD9k&hl=en&sa=X&ei=dKmMVYreLIzAggS0qYCYAw&ved=0CDUQ6AEwBA#v=onepage&q&f=false

    2 — Sham Dunk: Cooking Intelligence for the President?

    By Ray McGovern, 2005

    Chapter 19 in “Neo-CONNED! Again: Hypocrisy, Lawlessness, and the Rape of Iraq”, Light in the Darkness Publications, 2005?https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vBsKG1CRHTpqKrtOm4_bftQSOWtjF_PE/view?usp=sharing

    3 — Try These on Your CIA Briefer, Mr. President-Elect

    By Ray McGovern, November 8, 2008

    https://www.commondreams.org/views/2008/11/08/try-these-your-cia-briefer-mr-president-elect

    4 — What Needs to Be Done in Intelligence (a memo for the Bush-to-Obama transition team)

    By Ray McGovern. December 4, 2008

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/1mfT70D90UrNxAWhpy_SKtF4NkSmmHxmn/view?usp=sharing

    5 — US Intelligence Vets Oppose Brennan’s CIA Plan

    By Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS), March 9, 2015

    https://consortiumnews.com/2015/03/09/us-intel-vets-oppose-brennans-cia-plan/

    *  *  *

    Please Contribute to Consortium News During  its 2020 Winter Fund Drive

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  • Aussie Media Claims Massive Leak Of CCP Members "Lifts The Lid" On Global Surveillance State
    Aussie Media Claims Massive Leak Of CCP Members “Lifts The Lid” On Global Surveillance State
    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/13/2020 – 22:00

    Just days after leaked video from China exposed details of China having “people at the top of America’s core inner circle of power and influence,” which was followed by Eric Swalwell’s ‘fang-banger-gate’ debacle, Sky News Australia reports that a major leak containing a register with the details of nearly two million CCP members has occurred – exposing members who are now working all over the world, while also lifting the lid on how the party operates under Xi Jinping..

    This report reinforces details exposed in 2018, when a series of leaked internal documents revealed that China’s military reforms are aimed at allowing Beijing to “manage a crisis, contain a conflict, win a war” and overtake the United States in military strength:

    “As we open up and expand our national interests beyond borders, we desperately need a comprehensive protection of our own security around the globe,” read the leaked documents, which adds that a strong military is the best way to “escape the obsession that war is unavoidable between an emerging power and a ruling hegemony”.

    Which led to recent concerns about China’s increasingly ‘hyrbid’ war efforts around the world.

    As ABC reported in September, a Chinese company with links to Beijing’s military and intelligence networks has been amassing a vast database of detailed personal information on thousands of Australians, including prominent and influential figures.

    A database of 2.4 million people, including more than 35,000 Australians, has been leaked from the Shenzhen company Zhenhua Data which is believed to be used by China’s intelligence service, the Ministry of State Security.

    Zhenhua boasts of having the People’s Liberation Army and the Chinese Communist Party among its main clients.

    Information collected includes dates of birth, addresses, marital status, along with photographs, political associations, relatives and social media IDs.

    Zhenhua’s chief executive Wang Xuefeng, a former IBM employee, has used Chinese social media app WeChat to endorse waging “hybrid warfare” through manipulation of public opinion and “psychological warfare”.

    All of which leads to today’s breaking news from Australia’s Sky News who claim that the leak is a significant security breach likely to embarrass Xi Jinping, noting that the data was extracted from a Shanghai server by Chinese dissidents, whistleblowers, in April 2016, who have been using it for counter-intelligence purposes.

    “It was then leaked in mid-September to the newly-formed international bi-partisan group, the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China – and that group is made up of 150 legislators around the world.

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    “It was then provided to an international consortium of four media organisations, The Australian, The Sunday Mail in the UK, De Standaard in Belgium and a Swedish editor, to analyse over the past two months, and that’s what we’ve done”.

    TimesNowNews.com reports that the data analysis also revealed that:

    …more than 600 party members were working at 19 branches of British banks like HSBC and Standard Chartered in 2016.

    Similarly, pharmaceutical giants Pfizer and AstraZeneca, currently involved in the development of coronavirus vaccines, had employed 123 CCP loyalists.

    Defence firms like Airbus, Boeing and Rolls-Royce also employed hundreds of party members.

    Sky News added that it, “is worth noting that there’s no suggestion that these members have committed espionage – but the concern is over whether Australia or these companies knew of the CCP members and if so have any steps been taken to protect their data and people”.

    But, as ABC reported in September, a Five Eyes intelligence officer, who uses the pseudonym Aeneas, has pored over the data, and described the technique as “mosaic intelligence gathering” – sourcing vast tracts of information from a wide variety of sources.

    “The individual pieces of intelligence are like tiles in a mosaic, which make sense when they are arranged the right way,” Aeneas said.

    He argued it was a different way to collect information than how many western agencies went about their work.

    The narrative does confirm recent comments by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who slammed China for stealing research and intellectual property, calling China’s Communist Party the “central threat of our time.”

    Still, the blaring headlines from Australian media do, however, smack a little of McCarthyism amid increasing tensions with the Chinese (wine tariffs, for example) as the nation’s largest trading partner rattles it hybrid sabre over disagreeable comments from Aussie politicians/media about the pandemic’s spread. Among the 2.4 million ‘CCP members’ in the leaked database, we simply have no idea how many are ‘bad actors’ and how many are merely little-red-book-carrying Chinese citizens, living and working abroad.

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  • "A Final Middle Finger From Trump" – Dems Furious About White House COVID Vaccine Access: Live Updates
    “A Final Middle Finger From Trump” – Dems Furious About White House COVID Vaccine Access: Live Updates
    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/13/2020 – 21:33

    Summary:

    • White House gets priority vaccine access
    • NY cases top 10K for 5th day
    • US cases decline slightly from record; 7-day still at record highs
    • NJ Gov: winter “going to be hell”
    • Germany enters 3-week hard lockdown
    • Portugal sees another record
    • Half of Brazilians wouldn’t take vaccine
    • Malaysia announced 1.3K new case

    * * *

    Update (0900ET): News broke a few hours ago that White House staff, starting with senior staffers who are the closest to the president, will be included in the first wave of essential workers who receive priority access to vaccines.

    Though it’s not clear how many doses are being allocated to the White House, the NYT says that given the number of staffers who have already tested positive, it’s likely the number could be minimal, and it’s likely Trump won’t be receiving the vaccine since he’s already repeatedly claimed to be “immune” (claims that, we should point out, have been backed up by “the science”, but are still treated with skepticism by the NYT).

    Senior staffers will in theory have priority, though, as we said, many have already been infected and likely have enough naturally occurring antibodies (for at least a little while longer, from what we know from various studies).

    Unsurprisingly, top Dems lept on Trump right away, with Tim Hogan, a Democratic consultant and a former top aide on Senator Amy Klobuchar’s presidential bid, said Washington “will not come close to covering every health care worker with its first allotment of the vaccine, but a White House that downplayed the virus and held a half-year nationwide super spreader tour gets to cut the line, ” calling the WH vaccinations “a final middle finger to the nurses and doctors on the front lines from the Trump administration.”

    So, will Joe Biden, who has already committed to taking the vaccine on video in the coming days/weeks, now commit to barring his staff from priority access?

    * * *

    Following Friday’s latest record daily tally in the US, the number of new cases pulled back a bit on Saturday (though the 7-day average remained at a record high), while the number of total hospitalizations continued its ascent to new records. According to the COVID Tracking Project, nationwide hospitalizations climbed to a new record: 108,487, with some projecting that number to more than double before the spring arrives, and with it, more of the temperate weather that can help slow the spread of viruses like SARS-CoV-2 and the flu (readers may remember a few months back, Goldman Sachs analysts ran a detailed analysis of temperatures vs. COVID-19 infection data) .

    Deaths were just below 2.5K, remaining above the 2K threshold for the 5th straight day (every day since Dec. 8).

    California reported another daily record, as we noted last night. New York has now joined the states with more than 10K new cases for the 4th straight day.

    In other news, New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy offered up his optimistic outlook on the COVID-19 vaccine on Sunday, while still cautioning that the next few weeks are “going to be hell” during an appearance on ABC’s “This Week”.

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    Murphy also noted that Moderna is up for its EUA this week, and that “God willing, they get it,” as if the outcome wasn’t already virtually preordained. Or that seems to be the perception, anyway.

    With the first trucks loaded with vaccines trundling on to their destinations Sunday, Moncef Slaoui (the head of “Operation Warp Speed” is at it again with the increasingly sunny projections, claiming as many as 8 in 10 Americans could be vaccinated by June during an appearance on “Fox News Sunday” (public opinion polls suggest only 50% of the population plans to get a vaccine immediately once they become available). In Europe, the first COVID vaccines will probably be approved in the coming weeks, official said.

    Here’s some more COVID news from overnight and Sunday morning:

    • Portugal on Sunday reported 98 deaths, more than the previous daily record of 95 announced on Friday, and taking the total number of fatalities to 5,559 (Source: Bloomberg).
    • Half of Brazilians wouldn’t take the Covid-19 vaccine being developed by China’s Sinovac Biotech Ltd. with Instituto Butantan in Sao Paulo, a Datafolha poll shows (Source: Bloomberg).
    • Malaysia announced 1,229 new coronavirus cases on Sunday, bringing the total number of infections in the Southeast Asian country to 83,475, according to a health ministry statement. Four deaths were recorded, pushing up the death toll to 415 (Source: Bloomberg).
    • Israel will likely begin to make Covid-19 vaccines available to the population ahead of schedule (Source: Bloomberg).

    * * *

    Finally, the biggest news out of Europe so far on Sunday is Chancellor Angela Merkel’s decision to plunge the country back into a full-fledged lockdown, despite growing opposition to another economy wrecking shutdown. Even schools will close, something that European nations have largely tried to avoid.

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    For now, at least, the lockdown will be short-lived, Under new measures which will last from Dec. 16 until Jan. 10, schools and non-essential shops across the country will be closed, including during the Christmas holiday. Hairdressers, beauty salons and tattoo parlours will also close while drinking alcohol in public will be banned until Jan. 10.

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  • "Reformed" Criminal Hired To Curb Violence In DC Charged With Murder
    “Reformed” Criminal Hired To Curb Violence In DC Charged With Murder
    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/13/2020 – 21:30

    Via Judicial Watch (emphasis ours)

    In a curious twist, a “reformed” criminal hired by the District of Columbia’s chief legal officer to help curb violence has been arrested and charged with murder. The case involves a taxpayer-funded public safety program known as Cure the Streets launched by D.C. Attorney General Karl Racine to reduce gun violence by treating it as a disease that can be interrupted and stopped from spreading. Cure the Streets typically hires men and women with criminal histories as violence interrupters because they know first-hand about the challenges that residents of crime-infested communities live with. Racine, who was reelected to a second term in 2018, says the transformed criminals hired by his program perform community-driven public safety work that can avoid using police.

    Here is how they carry out the task, according to Racine’s office: By interrupting potentially violent conflicts because they have relationships and influence within targeted neighborhoods. Violence interrupters “engage with the community to learn about brewing conflicts and resolve them peaceably before they erupt in violence,” the program’s website states. Violence interrupters also identify and treat individuals at high risk for involvement with violence by meeting with them and implementing individualized risk reduction plans. “They also help connect participants with needed services, such as housing, counseling and employment assistance, and develop action plans for a positive future.” Finally, the D.C. Attorney General claims violence interrupters mobilize communities to change norms by engaging residents, local businesses, community leaders and faith leaders to work with high-risk individuals to reduce violence. “CTS works with these partners to organize forums and public events where residents can gather and interact safely without fear of conflict and violence,” the D.C. government website claims. It is not clear what impact Cure the Streets is having on violent crime in the District, but the Metropolitan Police Department reports that homicides are up 20% from last year.

    The program operates in notoriously high-crime sections throughout D.C., which are broken down by wards. They include Eckington/Truxton and Trinidad in Ward 5, Marshall Heights/Benning Heights in Ward 7 and Bellevue, Washington Highlands, and Congress Heights in Ward 8. The Cure the Streets employee recently charged with murder was a supervisor who led a team of six violence interrupters and outreach workers. His name is Cotey Wynn, an ex-con with an extensive rap sheet who served a decade in prison before D.C.’s chief legal officer hired him. Wynn’s record includes felony murder, first degree murder, possession with intent to distribute crack cocaine, and distribution of a controlled substance, according to the Metropolitan Police Department. On December 4, the agency’s Capital Area Fugitive Task Force arrested the 39-year-old Wynn and charged him with second degree murder while armed. At the time of his arrest Wynn was under the supervision of the Pretrial Services Agency for the District of Columbia, a federal agency that believes preventative detention should only be a last resort for defendants, who should live in the least restrictive conditions while awaiting court.

    Police say Wynn fatally shot a 53-year-old man named Eric Linnair Wright in 2017 near the Trinidad neighborhood in Northeast Washington. The violence interrupter was identified by multiple witnesses after viewing security camera footage from nearby homes, according to police. Authorities also tracked Wynn’s cell phone to the location of the crime. In a statement issued to local media, Racine’s spokesperson said this: “The Office of the Attorney General is aware of Mr. Wynn’s arrest for a homicide he is alleged to have committed in 2017, prior to his employment with Cure the Streets. This case will now proceed through our criminal justice system where Mr. Wynn is presumed innocent. We are confident that justice will be served once this process is complete. Our hearts go out to the family of Mr. Wright, the victim in this case, and to the affected members of the community. The important work of the Cure the Streets team will continue.”

    It was not that long ago that the same office, charged with enforcing D.C. laws and protecting the interest of its citizens, bragged about what a great guy Wynn is. In a profile posted on the Attorney General’s website over the summer, Wynn was portrayed as somewhat of a saint. “When observing Cotey at work, you see a respected professional, a loving father, a devoted friend, and a pillar of the community,” according to the piece which includes a photo of the accused murderer delivering resources to D.C. residents during COIVD-19. The story also reveals that Wynn could not find a job after a decade in prison since “the damage to his reputation made it hard for him to find employment” so D.C. government hired him as a violence interrupter for Cure the Streets.

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  • China Tells Cabin Crews To Wear Diapers And Avoid Using Bathrooms On Risky Covid Flights
    China Tells Cabin Crews To Wear Diapers And Avoid Using Bathrooms On Risky Covid Flights
    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/13/2020 – 21:00

    In one of the most absurd post-covid developments,  last week China’s aviation regulator recommended that cabin crew on charter flights to high-risk Covid-19 destinations – such as the US – reduce the risk of infection by using the bathroom. Their solution: use disposable diapers. The advice, first reported by Bloomberg, was published in a 38-page list of guidelines for airlines to prevent the spread of coronavirus.

    The Civil Aviation Administration of China said the recommendation applies for charter flights to and from countries and regions where infections exceed 500 in every one million people. According to the latest data, that would include most countries, and certainly the US where the official number is some 4,400 cases per 1 million people on a rolling 7 day basis.

    In addition to wearing diapers, the regulator suggests cabin crew use such personal protective equipment including:

    • Medical protective masks
    • Double-layer disposable medical rubber gloves
    • Goggles
    • Disposable caps
    • Disposable protective clothing
    • Disposable shoe covers

    So far there is no mandatory requirement for cabin crew to wear full hazmat suits, although we assume as the global panic rages unabated, this is coming too. The regulator also said that flight crew should wear masks and goggles, but they don’t need diapers.

    Other advice for the flights includes dividing the cabin into “clean area, buffer zone, passenger sitting area and quarantine area,” separated by disposable curtains. The last three rows should be designated as an emergency quarantine area, said CAAC. CAAC declined to disclose any more details on the guidelines.

    While China’s aviation market was hit hard at the onset of the outbreak in Wuhan, it has since recovered to close to pre-pandemic levels as China’s cases remain laughably low, even as the diseases reportedly rages unabated in other regions such as Europe and the U.S. struggle to bring Covid-19 under control.

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  • The Renminbi Will Gain Wider Use Globally, Gavekal's CEO Says
    The Renminbi Will Gain Wider Use Globally, Gavekal’s CEO Says
    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/13/2020 – 20:35

    Authored by Resham Kapadia via Barrons.com,

    Louis-Vincent Gave, CEO of Gavekal, is a go-to source for institutional investors trying to interpret global macro risks such as the financial implications of China’s rise. Gave, 46, was born in Paris, educated at Duke University, and based in Hong Kong before the pandemic. Gavekal provides independent research and manages $1.7 billion in Asian fixed-income and equities strategies, primarily for European institutions.

    Barron’s: What investment trends will be most prominent after the pandemic?

    Louis-Vincent Gave: If I ask what the most important development was in 2001, most people would say it was 9/11. With the benefit of hindsight, it was China joining the World Trade Organization, which changed the world for the following 20 years. If I ask about 2007, you’d say it was the start of the subprime crisis. With the benefit of hindsight, it was the launch of the smartphone.

    With hindsight, what will people say about 2020?

    So far, the Covid response in the U.S. has been a $12,800 increase in debt per capita; in the United Kingdom, it’s $7,000, and in Germany and France, $5,300. In China, it’s $1,200. The Western world responded with massive increases in budget deficits, which could constrain future policy options, while Asia, especially China, hasn’t.

    Western policy makers have no choice but to embrace yield-curve controls; they can’t let interest rates go back up. You had Japan and Europe in the yield-curve control gang. The big change now is that the U.S. has joined them. Once the European Central Bank went down this [path], the euro tanked. Once we are on the other side of Covid-19 and it becomes clear the U.S. has no other choice, the dollar will collapse.

    What will be the best investment opportunity post-Covid?

    Investing in Asian fixed-income markets, in local currencies. Governments there have broadly been more efficient at dealing with Covid-19. Central-bank balance sheets and government spending haven’t grown out of control. Just as water flows downhill, capital is attracted to positive real [inflation adjusted] rates. Today, these are mostly found in Asia.

    What is the most pressing public policy issue the U.S. will face?

    How to fund runaway debt. For now, everyone’s answer is through modern monetary theory [which posits that governments that control their own currency can spend freely]. Once the debt is monetized by the central bank, there are no historical examples, outside of Japan, where that doesn’t lead to massive and very fast inflation, massive currency debasement, or both.

    What does that mean for the dollar’s reserve-currency status?

    I look at currencies like computer operating systems. Most Gavekal clients use Microsoft because everyone else uses it. The dollar is Microsoft. Go back to 2005-06, when Apple was trading at nine times earnings and viewed as making a niche product. In 2007, Apple said it would create a parallel system and went straight to the consumer, who took [Apple] not because it was cheaper but because it was easier.

    So the renminbi is Apple.

    We are seeing the rollout of Chinese fintech solutions across Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa through WePay and Alipay. Then, tack on the digital renminbi and look forward to a future where an Indonesian businessman goes to Singapore and pays for his taxi with Alipay and the transaction isn’t settled through Swift or the dollar but through digital renminbi. The pushback I get is that no one is going to trust the digital RMB—or, who wants the Chinese government to know how and where you spend your money? That’s a big roadblock, but if you told me 10 years ago people would put Alexa in their homes voluntarily….

    Aren’t you worried about China’s debt or social instability?

    For the past 10 years, I’ve been told that Chinese debt was about to implode and there would be riots in the street. In the past 10 years, we have seen riots in France and the U.S—and in Hong Kong—but China has been remarkably stable. We have been told that the Chinese government would have no choice but to nationalize big parts of the economy and the renminbi would collapse. That scenario has unfolded in Europe and the U.S. [The U.S.] has increased debt by $4.2 trillion, three-quarters of which was funded by the Fed. Meanwhile, the renminbi has been the strongest currency year to date and over 10 years.

    What is a key concern for Asia-based investors?

    The decoupling of the U.S. and China is a massive change, and Taiwan is an important fault line. Taiwan wasn’t too much of an issue when the U.S. and China got along and all China produced were cheap plastic toys and bicycles. But this year, the market cap of the global semiconductor industry is above that of the energy sector. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing [ticker: TSM] said it is already manufacturing a generation of chips that Intel [INTC] has said it won’t be able to fabricate until as late as 2023. If you think semiconductors matter more than energy, Taiwan Semi is one of the most important companies in the world.

    What are the longer-term ramifications of President Xi’s crackdown in Hong Kong?

    The core thesis is that Xi is a transformational president—the first imperialist president since the Ming Dynasty. If you are Xi and you hear your companies won’t have access [to U.S. markets], Hong Kong sounds like a great way to internationalize the renminbi and do a digital renminbi. Most Westerners saw the intervention as the death of Hong Kong, but China guaranteed Hong Kong would be China’s capital markets for the foreseeable future. [Xi] has no choice but to make it a success, which is why the Hong Kong dollar is stuck at the high end of its [trading] band.

    Chinese internet stocks have been hit by increased regulatory scrutiny, including the scuttling of the oversubscribed planned public offering of Ant Group. Does this mark a turning point for these companies?

    Since the [suspension] of the Ant IPO and new antitrust [guidelines], we also had a state-owned coal company default on one billion renminbi, or $150 million. One big issue for China has been a trade surplus of $60 billion and enormous inflows into China tech and bonds driving the renminbi higher.

    In the Western world, we would raise rates [to deal with potential bubbles]. In China, they have regulatory weapons. They managed to cool the tech stocks in China and inflows into Chinese bonds. They got their message through.

    You have been living in Vancouver during the pandemic. What is the one place on Earth that you’d most like to visit when the pandemic ends?

    I have to get back to my Hong Kong and Beijing offices. I miss my colleagues and my friends there.

    Thank you.

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  • Cathie Wood's ARKK ETF Passes JP Morgan For Largest Active ETF
    Cathie Wood’s ARKK ETF Passes JP Morgan For Largest Active ETF
    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/13/2020 – 20:10

    No sooner did we just write about ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood involuntarily losing majority control of her own firm than it has been revealed that her firm – known for its massively outsized investments in Tesla (and numerous other tech companies that are vastly overpriced and incapable of generating consistent cash) has now surpassed JP Morgan “for the largest actively managed exchange-traded fund.”

    According to Bloomberg, the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) saw a record inflow of $275 million on Thursday that helped boost it to just under $16 billion in total assets. This surpasses the $15.2 billion JPMorgan Ultra-Short Income ETF (JPST).

    The firm is just one of the financial assets that the everyday working-man doesn’t even know exists, yet was the major beneficiary of a “rising tide” created by the Fed injecting trillions of dollars of liquidity (colloquially known as QE Infinity) that caused a massive boom in tech stocks off their lows in March. 

    The ARKK ETF, which has a insane strategic 10% weighting in Tesla, is up 150% year-to-date. Tesla is up 650% this year, totally not as a result of Softbank and Goldman Sachs options buying schemes and definitely as a result of their super-duper financials, we’re sure. 

    This outperformance comes from the same visionary who, back in November, was delivered notice from Resolute Management Investors that they would be taking control of her firm due to an option in a deal Wood had negotiated back in 2016. 

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    The power shift, which Pensions & Investments notes isn’t especially amicable, came due to a 2016 agreement between Resolute and ARK, where RIM acquired a minority stake in the investment manager – with a call option “to purchase a controlling voting and equity interest in (ARK) that is exercisable in 2021.”

    While the financial terms of the deal had not been made available, ARK’s founder, CEO and CIO, Wood, who currently owns 50% to 75% of the firm, didn’t seem happy with RIM’s decision.

    Wood said in a statement: “On behalf of the employee-owners of ARK, we are disappointed that Resolute Investment Managers and its private equity owner, Kelso & Co., have chosen to issue this unwelcome notice that they intend to seize control of our business.”

    “As reported by Morningstar, ARK has delivered top one-percentile returns for multiple products over one-, three- and five-year periods. Thanks to our research and investing success, paired with our innovative digital marketing strategies, ARK now ranks among the largest ETF issuers in the U.S.,” Wood continued.

    She concluded: “The remarkable success of our team is rooted firmly in a culture of transparency, collaboration, and employee ownership. We do not believe that equity ownership by a party tangential to our business is in the best interest of ARK’s stakeholders.”

    As we said last month: “Regardless, the deal may actually be a blessing in disguise for Wood, who is likely going to receive a large payday and gets a chance to potentially exit on top – with the added bonus of a scapegoat to blame any future implosion by the firm on.”

    And hey, we were going to congratulate Cathie on passing J.P. Morgan, but we guess what we meant to say was, “Congratulations, Resolute Investment Managers!”

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  • After Trump, The Flood…
    After Trump, The Flood…
    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/13/2020 – 19:45

    Authored by Ghassan and Intibah Kadi for the Saker Blog,

    Whether there was indeed voter fraud and rigging, and I personally believe there was and at a huge scale, it seems that, by hook or by crook, Joe Biden will become the next President of the United States of America; and we should prepare ourselves for this, regardless of our political points of view and inclinations.

    The presence of Biden in the Whitehouse will definitely change course on a number of issues, both domestically within the USA and overseas, but the objective of this article is to shed a bit of light on what is likely to happen to the current pro-Biden camp and the diverse array of supporters who have helped elevate him to this position.

    In more ways than one, I have always seen in Syria a microcosm of world politics and conflicts. Long before the enemies of Syria decided to launch their attack in March 2011, the masterminds of the conspiracy put the most unlikely allies together, only united by their hatred of Syria. Back then I called them the ‘Anti-Syrian Cocktail’. Those allies each had their own agenda regarding Syria and had nothing in common other than their desire to remove President Bashar Al-Assad from office. Among the issues they disagreed on was his replacement, how to share the spoils, not to mention the alternative political system to install, Syria’s future position in the region, international alliances, and so forth.

    With a whole array of enemies, Trump inadvertently caused a rounding up of a very loosely-united anti-Trump-cocktail; only united by their hatred of him. So, let’s face it and acknowledge it; they will never let him win the November 2020 elections. Though only united by their hatred of Trump, there are too many of them, they are powerful; extremely powerful, and they are very determined to get rid of him by any means possible, legal, illegal, using tactics like bribery, intimidation, threats, thuggery, and they have no one to fear because, collectively they have given each other impunity, covering each other’s backs and producing a culture where criticizing them is taboo. Crucially, the ‘law’ and the media are on their side.

    With the exception of the Clintons and Bidens perhaps, the other Democrats have their traditional political opposition to Trump, even when they see and know he is making good decisions. This is the golden rule of political duopoly. But the Clintons and the Bidens have personal dirt on them and even blood on their hands that they want to keep the lid on in order to avoid prosecution and possibly even jail. They are likely to remain united after a Trump loss, but the same cannot be said about other odd couples.

    Most of the other November 2020 Biden supporters are destined to be on a collision course, and they will soon enough realize that their differences are much stronger than what united them and that they were taken for fools. None will be disappointed more than the so-called ‘Progressives’.

    The definition of the term progressive has morphed quite significantly over the last decade or so. Currently, it seems to include any one who stands up against Trump; and this is the primordial cause of the confusion and reason for future conflict between them. In reality, what defines the term ‘progressive’ in any existing progressive movement can be totally different from that of another movement; and the difference is not necessarily marginal. Being ‘progressive’ in the 21st Century implies the presence of a very specific agenda or slogan that may or may not be compatible with other ‘progressive’ agendas.

    Take the Assange supporters for example. The moment they wake up from their deep slumber, they will realize that the man they supported to become President is actually the leader of the political party that has put Assange in jail for exposing his party’s dirt. I hope that Trump pulls the rug from underneath their feet and pardons Assange before the 20th of January 2021. But will this show the Assange supporters who is who? Not necessarily because if they wanted to open up their eyes and see, they would have seen from day one that Assange’s biggest enemy is none but Hillary Clinton and that she is the one responsible for his demise; not Trump.

    But the Assange supporters did not play a major role in the elections; at least not directly, and at least not as much as their closest ‘progressives’; the peace activists.

    The Democrats and their cohorts have portrayed Trump as a warmonger. When peace activists eventually see that Biden will have to serve his warlord masters and start new wars across the globe, they will have to think again. He is already touting hiring well known hawks in key positions in his forthcoming cabinet and team of advisors, with his Defense Secretary reportedly selected.

    When it comes to street power however, none has been more powerful and effective as the combination of BLM and the environmentalists.

    BLM activists have just fallen a tad short of blaming Trump for an American five-century long history of racism. But how much do BLM activists really care about Climate Change and specifically about Greta-type environmental vision of how the world should run? Moreover, most environmentalists, if not all of them, are anti-vaxxers. When they see that Biden is the trump card for the vaccine empire, they may wish they didn’t take to the streets to unseat the Trump card they had in the Whitehouse. If there is/was one person standing up against the malevolent “Gates vaccine”, it has to be Trump, and the single-issue anti-vaxxers are against Trump. Try to make sense of this.

    This is not to forget and ignore that the Climate Change activists will soon find out, the hard way, that Biden will not come clean on the zero-emission promise; not only because he doesn’t want to, not only because he goes to bed with the petro-dollar lobby, but also because he does not have the alternative technology to replace fossil fuel with.

    In and out and in between the BLM and Climate Change activists, what do the Climate Change activists have in common ideologically with BLM and at what stage will they break ranks and decide to go against one another? What will happen after either one of them accuses the other, rightfully I must say, that they have been used as pawns by the ‘Deep State’?

    And who said that the BLM has more in common with the LBGTI community and activists than it does with the gun lobby? Sections of the BLM likely also love guns.

    And speaking of Greta, for how much longer will she able to keep up the fallacy that her agenda and those of her friends Soros and the World Economic Forum (WEF), and its members that include Monsanto, are actually compatible?

    And for the right or wrong reasons, who is to guarantee that the tens of millions of Trump supporters are going to sit and accept that the election win of Biden is legitimate and that they have to swallow it? Will this cause social strife, violence on the streets, even worse perhaps civil war and much more? We don’t know. What we do know is that a controversy about election results should have been dealt with in total transparency in order to put all concerns to rest. But this is not happening, and it is not going to happen because a decision has been made against Trump dictating that he must lose.

    But the after-Trump-effect is not necessarily going to affect only America. Right-wing politics, including the extreme version of it, have been on the rise in the world, and especially in Western Europe. And if the Neo-Nazis look threatening because their ideology is based on a very dark chapter in human history, what do we really know is on the agenda of the forces that have combined the very diverse elements of the anti-Trump cocktail in order to serve its objective(s)? What is it really that they want?

    Hitler was at least clear about his mission statement. He wanted an Aryan Third Reich to rule the world for a thousand years. The rest of the world did not have to wonder and ponder about his intentions. He sent a very clear message to rest of the world, a message clear enough to unite the West with the Bolsheviks against him.

    But today, we have an invisible driving force that has managed to put together an array of the most unlikely partners in order to fight a common cause. Do we not at least ask the question ‘why?’

    In the case of Syria, the answer to the ‘why’ question was to topple Assad, albeit without having a plan that went further, at least as a united coalition. It would have been impossible for the plotters and planners to each disclose what they had in mind. In reality, they did not have any plan at all other than replacing him with a void. Fast-forward; the get-rid-of-Trump plan is very similar; get rid of him without having a plan so as to ensure all participants are pleased and appeased, because the plan seems to also be based on replacing Trump with chaos and anarchy.

    The irony here is that the anti-Trump-cocktail is not only comprised of his political opponents, mainstream media, social media, but also includes government agencies such as the DOJ, the CIA, the FBI and even some American Republicans.

    Briefly put, Trump has been chosen to lose, but after him, the flood is imminent. The current allies who lobbied against him will very shortly come to the realization that they are no longer united, and some will even turn into enemies fighting over the spoils of the win.

    In more ways than one, they will harvest the fruit of the seeds they planted, and they will rightfully deserve all consequences. A Biden win is the most befitting ‘punishment’ of the anti-Trump cocktail.

    Apart from the hapless American populace, the biggest loser of this all is the international stature of America as the leader of the so-called Democratic Free World. In a fitting blowback for these pernicious actors, Trump would have proven without a shadow of doubt, that the Deep State is so deep and powerful, powerful enough to mobilize its own enemies to serve it.

    At that point, to quote the rhetoric of the “Great Reset” agenda, but again, as blowback, things will never be the same again for these dangerous characters.

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  • Bravery Is…
    Bravery Is…
    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/13/2020 – 19:20

    Having trouble interpreting what’s really going on in the world? JP Sears and his fellow ‘thinkers’ explain what the media would like you to think…

    Of course you can always trust the media to lead the way to the promised land of truth.

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  • Cornell Offers "Person Of Color"-Exemption For Flu Vaccine Requirement
    Cornell Offers “Person Of Color”-Exemption For Flu Vaccine Requirement
    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/13/2020 – 18:55

    Authored by Benjamin Zeisloft via Campus Reform,

    Students at Cornell University can use their status as a “person of color” to be exempt from the university’s flu vaccine requirement.

    “Students who identify as Black, Indigenous, or as a Person of Color (BIPOC) may have personal concerns about fulfilling the Compact requirements based on historical injustices and current events,” explains Cornell Health’s vaccine requirement FAQ.

    Students can send a private message to Cornell Health in order to request a non-medical or non-religious exemption for the immunization.

    For more information, the FAQ links to a page “especially for students of color,” which is meant to help minority students concerned about the flu vaccine requirement.

    “We recognize that, due to longstanding systemic racism and health inequities in this country, individuals from some marginalized communities may have concerns about needing to agree to such requirements,” explains the page. “For example, historically, the bodies of Black, Indigenous, and other People of Color (BIPOC) have been mistreated, and used by people in power, sometimes for profit or medical gain.”

    The university, therefore, considers it “understandable that the current Compact requirements may feel suspect or even exploitative to some BIPOC members of the Cornell community.”

    Nevertheless, Cornell strongly encourages minority students to receive immunizations.

    “Away from campus community, BIPOC individuals are not as likely to have access to preventive services or quality health care,” continues the page.

    “The systems, services, and policies being implemented at Cornell seek to address these inequalities as well as the differential impacts.”

    One Cornell undergraduate, who spoke to Campus Reform on the condition of anonymity, said that “all students deserve equal treatment regarding what healthcare choices they are allowed to make at Cornell.”

    Because students of all identities may have personal concerns about taking a mandatory vaccine, “having a policy statement that singles out BIPOC students for requesting an exemption” is unfair for other students.

    Campus Reform contacted Cornell University for more information and will update this article accordingly.

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  • Here Is The Little-Known Provision In The CARES Act That Could Trigger A Year-End "Selling Deluge"
    Here Is The Little-Known Provision In The CARES Act That Could Trigger A Year-End “Selling Deluge”
    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/13/2020 – 18:30

    One week before the end of November, JPMorgan issued a startling warning: according to calculations by the bank’s quant, Nick Panigirtzoglou, some $160 billion in negative equity rebalancing (read selling) was on deck by various pension and balanced mutual funds, and – should the rally continued into December – an additional $150 billion in forced selling could emerge from funds who have to keep their 60/40 stock/bond asset allocation. While many on Wall Street braced for a late November drawdown following this note, expecting a deluge of selling into an extremely illiquid market, with Emini top-of-book depth near the lowest levels on record…

    … aside from a modest dip on Nov 30, stocks continued their upward ascent with the S&P hitting an all time high last week, just above 3,700.

    That said, it may be too early to give the “all clear”, for two reason: first, it is possible that the rebalancing fund “forced selling” has merely been pushed back to December, and year-end, and if JPM’s calculation that we could be facing over a $100 billion in forced selling in the coming, even more illiquid days is correct, it is unlikely there will be enough buying interest to offset the coming pension rebalancing. The second reason why we may experience market turbulence in the last days of the year, is over a little noticed piece of legislation which according to Larry McDonald’s Bear Traps Report, could open the floodgates to 401K selling, leading to a “selling deluge.”

    As McDonald writes, buried deep in the CARES Act (the Corona Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act) which was enacted on March 27, 2020, and provided $2.2 Trillion of fiscal stimulus to offset the impact of the coronavirus on the U.S. economy, “is a clause that gives temporary flexibility on early withdrawals from retirement accounts. These temporary changes to the rules give more leeway to make emergency withdrawals from tax-deferred retirement accounts without incurring a penalty.”

    Specifically, Section 2022 of the CARES Act eliminates the 10 percent early withdrawal penalty if you are under the age of 59 ½ and withdraw up to $100,000. It also allows for the spread out of your income tax liability over three years rather than the same year you withdraw the money. And since the window to make these penalty-free early withdrawals closes by the end of 2020, millions of cash-strapped households may have no choice but to sell tens, if not hundreds of billions in passively-managed funds to take advantage of this one-time offer to avoid a 10% early withdrawal charge.

    McDonald then goes on to highlight the importance of passive investing which over the past decade has emerged as the dominant price setter in a world where actively managed funds have been fading. As the Bear Traps author writes, “the explosive impact of passive investing is significant. In recent years, passive equity funds have enjoyed inflows of more than $2T, even as traditional, active ones have suffered outflows of over $1.5T, according to data provider EPFR.” Indeed, the main story on Bloomberg this morning picks up on this, writing that “roughly $427 billion has poured into U.S. exchange-traded funds this year, divided almost evenly between equity and fixed-income funds, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data. Meanwhile, mutual funds have bled roughly $469 billion of assets in 2020, on track for the worst year on record in Investment Company Institute data going back to 1990.“

    While we have for years covered the staggering divergence between active outflows and passive inflows – which threaten to make conventional stock pickers obsolete and make market prices meaningless – and thus the topic is familiar to regular readers, Bloomberg writes that “this stark divergence in fortunes is part of a tectonic shift that’s seen investors favor ETFs over mutual funds for nine consecutive years, lured by the industry’s ultra-low fees and tax advantages. That trend was accelerated further in 2020, thanks to a well-timed rule from the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Federal Reserve’s first foray into the $5.3 trillion U.S. ETF market. Combined with another rocky performance from active managers, it’s clear why ETFs are winning out, according to State Street Global Advisors.”

    In any case, as McDonald summarizes, “there is now over $12T in index funds globally —either passive mutual funds or the increasingly popular ETFs.”

    And while the 401(k) provision is intended for those hardest hits by the pandemic, such as people who lost their jobs, the rules are applied rather loosely. For example, a qualified person includes those that “experience adverse financial consequences from being quarantined, being furloughed or laid off or having their work hours reduced.” Also qualified are those who “experienced adverse financial consequences as a result of being unable to work due to lack of childcare [or] closing or reducing hours from a business that you own or operate due to SARS Cov-2 or Covid-19”. Since virtually anyone can argue that they are qualified under these criteria, the language is open to interpretation and the IRS is unlikely to enforce the limits of this provision to the letter of the law according to McDonald, especially since banks and retirement management companies – who have themselves benefited greatly from the CARES act – are giving considerable leeway to allow their customers to use the CARES Act early withdrawal exemption.

    McDonald then makes one final point – the same one we noted three weeks ago – namely the lack of market depth or liquidity, to wit:

    This potential selling deluge comes as positioning in U.S. equities is becoming stretched and implied volatility for the Georgia runoffs is above average. Year-end rebalancing by pension funds is still expected to create supply in equities as funds rebalance their (now) overweight in equities. Overall, for 2021 we should expect volatility to grind lower as the removal of trade war risk, the declining corona risk with the advent of the vaccines, the removal of the uncertainty of the elections, and rebounding GDP growth with 0% Fed funds rates provide a supportive backdrop for risk assets. Notwithstanding that, we first need to pass the year-end hurdle of retirement withdrawals, pension rebalancing, and Georgia runoffs.

    Ultimately, The Bear Trap report’s conclusion is identical to that of Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson, who has recently cautioned that a near-term “drawdown” is coming, but that would be followed by a brisk episode of BTFD and new highs in 2021, or as McDonald puts it, while the coming selling deluge “could take an overstretched market by surprise…. we would then use a meaningful pullback to prudently add to the risk.”

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  • The 'Hannibal Trap' Will Crush Global Wealth
    The ‘Hannibal Trap’ Will Crush Global Wealth
    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/13/2020 – 18:05

    Authored by Egon von Greyerz via GoldSwitzerland.com,

    Is the global investment world about to be caught in the Hannibal trap?

    Hannibal was considered as one of the greatest military tacticians and generals in history. He was a master of strategy and regularly led his enemies into excruciating defeats.

    The trap that investors are now being led into has many similarities with Hannibal’s strategy in his victory over the Romans at Lake Trasimene in 217 BC.

    Hannibal was a general and statesman from Carthage (now Tunisia) who successfully fought against the Romans in the Second Punic War.

    THE BATTLE AT LAKE TRASIMENE

    In 218 BC Hannibal took his troops, with cavalry and elephants, over the Alps and into Italy. Hannibal enticed the Roman Consul Flaminius, and his troops, in 217 BC to follow him to Lake Trasimene in Umbria. The Romans followed Hannibal’s troops into a narrow valley on the northern shores of the lake. When the Roman troops were inside the valley, they were trapped. They had the Carthaginians ahead of them, the lake on their right and hills on their left.

    What the Romans didn’t know was that Hannibal had hidden his light cavalry and part of his army up in the hills. So once the Romans were locked into the valley, they were attacked from both ends with nowhere to escape.

    Over 15,000 Romans were killed and 10,000 captured in a catastrophic defeat.

    So what has Hannibal got to do with the present world? Well, it is pretty obvious. It is all about being led into a fatal trap without even being aware.

    COVID ATTACKED AN ALREADY WEAKENED WORLD

    As we are approaching the end of an economic era in the world, anything that can go wrong will. The Coronavirus certainly fits that picture, since it could not have hit the world at a worse moment. Whether Covid-19 was accidentally or deliberately created by humans or just a product of nature, we will never learn.

    What we do know is that Covid was like putting a match to a timebomb. The timebomb being a global financial system which is about to explode.

    Major businesses in retail, leisure, travel, airlines are closing by the day and most won’t open again. Globally, 100´s of thousand of small businesses have closed with devastating effects for their owners.

    The coming depression will affect all levels of society.

    BILLIONAIRES WEALTH UP 70% IN THREE YEARS

    At the top of the global wealth pyramid, we have the biggest wealth trap in history. These are the 2,200 billionaires in the world. In the last three years their fortunes have swelled by a staggering 70% or $4.2 trillion. Their total wealth is now $10.2t.

    These billionaires are likely to lose at least 90% of their wealth, in real terms, in the next 5-10 years. But not a single one of them expects this to happen or prepares for it.

    As regards the number of millionaires in the world, the estimates vary between 13 and 46 million. Escalating house prices have clearly created a lot of extra millionaires.

    GLOBAL DEBT FUELS GLOBAL WEALTH

    Total global financial wealth is up almost 3x since 1990 from $80 trillion to $225t.

    But this massive wealth accumulation is resting on a very weak foundation of debt.

    It was only possible to treble wealth by, at the same time, more than trebling global debt from $80t in 1990 to $277t today.

    BIGGEST WEALTH TRAP IN HISTORY

    So there we have it. The world hasn’t created any net wealth. Instead wealth has just been inflated artificially by credit creation and money printing of the same magnitude.

    I do realise that total global debt and global personal wealth is not quite like for like. Still it gives a very good indication how this additional wealth is created since 1990.

    Yes, it was created by just simply printing money to the extent of $200 trillion in the last 20 years!

    This is clearly the biggest wealth trap in history. Hannibal couldn’t have done it better.

    Billionaires, millionaires and ordinary investors have all been sucked into a honeypot believing that they have real wealth based on sound foundations.

    What they don’t realise is that they will in the next few years be ambushed by what to them is an invisible enemy.

    This will initially involve total debasement of the currency, whether it is dollars, euros, pounds or yen. No they can’t all go down together against each other.

    But they will all go down in real terms. Real terms means measured in the only money which has survived in history – GOLD.

    The route there will not be straight forward. As currencies collapse, we will most likely first see hyperinflation. That could temporarily boost asset prices in nominal terms but certainly not in real terms.

    There will also be an implosion of both the debt bubble and the asset bubbles in stocks, bonds and property.

    ROBBER BARRONS

    Robber Barrons were feudal lords in medieval Europe who robbed travellers and merchant ships.

    The term Robber Barons was used from the 1860s for some of the entrepreneurs at the time. They used unscrupulous methods to acquire wealth, thus the term. Most of them started new industries that became dominant in their field.

    They included Rockefeller (oil), Vanderbilt (railroads), Carnegie (steel), Ford (cars), Morgan (banking), and Astor (real estate).

    Major fortunes were created by these Entrepreneurs and Rockefeller is still considered the wealthiest man in the world ever, adjusted for inflation. Interestingly, the sectors these millionaires were in are all major industries today except for railways.

    The modern “Robber Barons” – Bezos, Gates, Musk, Zuckerberg and Buffet are in diversified areas like online retail, technology, car manufacturing and investments/finance.

    FANTASY VALUATIONS

    The big difference between the Robber Barrons in the late 19th century and today is how their wealth is measured.

    150 years ago valuations were conservative and price earnings ratios for public companies were normally below 10!

    Quick jump to today. Amazon has a p/e over 90, Microsoft & Facebook “only” in the 30s, and Tesla has a staggering p/e of 1,100!

    So on a historical basis, all of the biggest companies in the world today are grossly overvalued at p/e’s of 32 to 1,100 !!

    This is what happens when governments and central banks primary economic strategy consists of creating money out of thin air and then these funds are used to support the stock market.

    A major part of the $150 trillion debt created since the Great Financial Crisis started in 2006 has stayed with the banks and not gone to consumers or industry.

    Conveniently the money has reached investors and been invested in asset markets as I showed in the Debt/Asset table earlier in the this article.

    STOCKS ARE DRIVEN BY LIQUIDITY – NOT VALUE INVESTING

    Thus it is debt based liquidity which is primarily driving up asset markets. This is creating fantasy p/e’s and valuations which has very little to do with the growth of industry and finance 150 years ago.

    So back to Hannibal although he has been dead for 2200 years.

    We have major and potentially terminal problems in the financial system since September 2019. And we have a virus which has led to major parts of the world economy collapsing due to governments handling of this virus, But in spite of these massive problems, stock markets around the world are booming.

    HANNIBAL TRAP

    We have probably not seen the end of the stock market explosion as I explained in a recent article on the coming LIFTOFF & COLLAPSE. But at some point in the next few weeks or months, the market will burst.

    Before this burst every investor, big or small, who has any spare liquidity must be sucked into the market just before the top.

    This is the Hannibal trap. Everybody must be hauled into the stocks at the top of the market.

    And then BANG! Just like Hannibal totally took the Romans by surprise, so will a violent stock market crash.

    But this time it won’t be like in March 2020 with a quick recovery. Yes, of course most investors will buy the dips. That will only increase the pain. Because the coming collapse will be the start of a secular bear market that could last 10 years or more.

    And just like Hannibal slaughtered the Romans, the coming bear market will slaughter investors.

    Investors could easily see all the bubble assets, stocks bonds and property decline by more than 90% in real terms. Again, real terms mean constant and stable purchasing power.

    THE DOW WILL LOSE 97% IN REAL TERMS – GOLD

    The Dow/Gold ratio is today 15. In 1980 it was 1 to 1. The ratio topped in 1999 and the long term trend is now down as the chart below shows.

    The target for the ratio is 0.5 to 1. This means that the Dow will lose 97% against Gold in coming years.

    Few people believe this magnitude of decline is possible.

    But remember the Dow in itself went down 90% from 1929 to 1932 and that it took 25 years before it recovered.

    This time the situation is drastically worse both from a debt point of view and overvaluation of stocks. So 95%+ is not unrealistic.

    HISTORY PROVES THAT ONLY GOLD PRESERVES WEALTH IN REAL TERMS

    Only gold fulfils the role of always holding its value in real terms. Again history proves it.

    One ounce of gold bought a good costume for a man in Hannibal’s days, 2200 years ago, just as it does today.

    Since investors have been saved by central banks for decades, they expect the same today. This is why they will stay invested and also buy every dip until they run out of money.

    Sadly very few investors will get out before the bottom.

    BIGGEST WEALTH DESTRUCTION

    That is why we will see the biggest wealth destruction in history. Instead of the 2,200 billionaires currently, the world might have as little as 200 in 5-10 years time (in today’s money).

    All businesses will of course not disappear. But earnings will decline dramatically and p/e’s will collapse.

    Let’s take a business with a share price of $300 today and earnings per share of $10.

    Thus the p/e is 30 (30x$10=$300).

    If profits decline by 70% in a recession/depression and the p/e goes to 5 it will look as follows: Eps $3 x 5 p/e = $15 share price.

    So this company is still making a profit, albeit smaller. Still, the share price is down from $100 to $15 or by 95%.

    P/e’s of 5 or less are not unusual during depressions/recessions. I experienced this in the 1970s. The same happened in the 1930s.

    HISTORY, HISTORY HISTORY

    Again, as I often stress, the best lessons we learn are from history.

    Everyone thinks “It is different today” but I promise it isn’t. Almost everything we experience today has happened before.

    So vast fortunes will be wiped out in coming years. And other fortunes will be made in areas like hard assets and the resource industry. Precious metals will be an obvious major beneficiary.

    Some of the shrewd Swiss private banks like Lombard Odier advised their clients to hedge their portfolios with gold earlier this year. Very few wealth managers are as clever as 200 year old Swiss banks.

    Precious metals mining stocks are likely to do spectacularly well in the coming currency collapse and so will gold and silver.

    But the ultimate wealth preservation in the next 10 years is physical gold and silver held outside the banking system as history confirms.

    Remember that markets can always go higher even though they are massively overvalued.

    But when risk is at a maximum, investment is not about squeezing the last bit of profit out of your portfolio. Instead, it is all about protecting your profits. And you can’t do that by staying fully invested in overvalued assets.

    Remember that in a secular bear market everyone is a loser. The trick is to lose as little as possible.

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  • Is Oil Still The Cheapest 'Reflation' Asset?
    Is Oil Still The Cheapest ‘Reflation’ Asset?
    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/13/2020 – 17:40

    “Oil is the cheapest of all reflation assets,” said Amrita Sen, co-founder of London-based consultant Energy Aspects Ltd.

    “With vaccines slowly rolling out, we expect investors to start returning to the oil sector and for prices to continue firming.”

    And judging by the surge in energy stocks and Brent crude topping $50 for the first time since March, it would appear investors are returning en masse in the hope that things will “return to normal” sooner rather than later.

    Source: Bloomberg

    As Bloomberg notes, while the COVID-19 pandemic is worse than ever in the U.S., demand in Europe is bouncing back as a second wave of lockdowns eases and Asia continues to pull in huge volumes of crude.

    In some corners of the world, the recovery in demand is almost complete. 

    India’s largest refiner said last week its plants are processing at full capacity and it’s expecting a v-shaped rebound in fuel use.

    Consumption of gasoline is also at or near pre-Covid levels in China and Japan, the world’s second and fourth biggest oil consumers.

    European motorists are hitting the roads again as governments relax national lockdowns in countries including the U.K., Spain, and France, according to an index of road usage and traffic compiled by Bloomberg News. Road freight is sharply higher as companies rebuild inventories and the Christmas shopping season gets in full swing.

    All of this as US continues to lag.

     

     

    The Bear Traps Report (with Larry McDonald) agrees, positioning bullish for 2021, expecting to see $80 Crude a year from now…

    We think the oil industry is at a very interesting crossroads. While the headlines are obvious, ESG, green initiatives and capital broadly being reallocated out of the energy space, there are some positive tailwinds that are starting to enter the equation. At current multiples and sentiment, we think some of these more positive forces are worth factoring in.

    The global economy, with plenty of speed bumps to come, is in the early phase of recovering from a once in a generation shock. Typically, in economics, a shock is either demand or supply-based, covid was really both. For oil, the grounding of flights, domestic lockdowns, and heightened levels of general uncertainty, have meant oil and oil names have traded very poorly this year. The thing that is worth noting in the context of this perfect storm is, who are the survivors, because the companies that are able to survive this shock will be in a good place from an operating leverage perspective, i.e. reduced competition, and will be the most able to benefit from the changing tides of global risk.

    Emerging market countries are benefiting from the weaker U.S. dollar and stronger CNY in China.

    One of the things that are becoming clear in this early phase of the global economic recovery is, China and the US’ approach to stimulus has actually been quite complimentary. China has been focused on the supply and production side while the U.S. has been focused on the demand, fixing the private sector balance sheet side. On the one hand, this has led to age-old problems. Case in point, the external accountbalance with the trade deficit between the U.S. and China going back to all-time wide levels. However, this combination of policy support has largely been a positive for the global economy, especially emerging markets. The positive multiplier impact from a stronger yuan in china is significant. This is oil bullish.

    How Does this Work?

    China gets the factories open and supports the supply side, the U.S. gets households money which they spend on goods instead of services. Given covid restrictions, this data has been impressive. This duality effectively sends money to China, strengthens the RMB, and allows China to import more from the rest of the world. This downstream of demand is critical to getting the global trading back to its pre-covid levels again. It is also why this transition of fiscal policy and transfer payments is so important for the global economy right now.

    If the famous fiscal handoff from monetary policy is here, oil and other industrial commodities will be prime beneficiaries. This is where there could be a bit of irony in the wall street narratives. One of the main consensus views takes place on the street is that oil names will struggle with a blue wave, given green focus, regulations, fracking, etc. However, the same people are saying that a blue wave will be positive for risk assets and growth has given it is the most likely medium for expansive fiscal spending. As we have seen, when the U.S. does fiscal and household consumption is strengthened, it has a positive spillover on global growth and global trade. When growth and trade are improving, oil and oil-related names typically do well. We think this is especially true as the supply response from OPEC and U.S. shale will be much more muted if growth and demand-side lead to a re-rating higher in oil prices in 2021. We believe the famous fiscal handoff is here and a large fiscal response only reinforces that dynamic which should end up being positive for oil and oil-related names in 2021.

    But The Bear Traps Report notes there are some short-term issues to watch…

    We believe the oil market has been leapfrogging many factors in the short term including the current covid concerns and the short term demand issues that will develop from economic shutdowns along with Iran production coming back.

    Overlooking these issues is fine if they don’t develop momentum.

    However, they are developing momentum so we do not think that one should remain naked in this respect. We would take advantage of lower volatility today to layer in some risk offsets due to both covid and the knee-jerk reaction the market might have to a democratic government pursuing a more positive relationship with Iran. This will likely be a short term concern so make your risk offsets short duration.

    If momentum picks up that Iran will be allowed to reinstate as a full producer of oil to the market, we think that both the pace in which the production is added as well as the absolute amount of production added does not overshadow the daunting supply crunch that is only going to become more apparent to the market as the ’21 develops.

    In fact, it would be naive to think that OPEC+ was not considering this issue in its decision to increase production by 500,000 b\d in the new year, which would indicate that there is a supply crunch already happening and OPEC+ is trying to avoid the price of oil moving too high too quickly.

    Energy equities are acting very well in this current market and it is worth noting that oil prices may come under pressure and equites could act better due to the value/growth transition that seems to have legs of late.

    We think that the Venezuela concern is not of merit as the scope of capital required to reinvigorate the production will make it’s an entrance back into the global market a very slow one.

    Offsetting the COVID and Iran (new supply) headwinds are the following tailwinds:

    1) Crude has flipped into backwardation which is indicating a tighter physical market

    2) The Brent – WTI spread is the widest it has been in 6 months and that tied to time spreads are indicating a tight market

    3) The two foremost physical market indicators (Atlantic Basin physical crudes and Asian refining margins) that we deem as imperative leading drivers for a sustainable oil market rally, have both improved lately.

    And so it is a bet that these physical market indicators worsen because of covid – right now they are indicating a tight market.

    However, not everyone is so positive of medium-term recovery over short-term hiccups.

    “Right now, oil has priced in that promising future,” said Victor Shum, vice president of energy consulting at IHS Markit Ltd. in Singapore.

    “While we have to deal with the immediate dark Covid winter.“

    As Bloomberg warns, there are reasons to think $50 could be oil’s ceiling for now. The price could tempt producers from Baghdad to Oklahoma to increase production. There are already tensions within OPEC+, with some members chafing at the cartel’s self-imposed supply limits.

    “A persistent rally could turn OPEC+ much less conservative, in turn driving a price pullback,” said Citigroup Inc. analysts including Ed Morse.

    Additionally, the backwardation highlighted above, that’s attracting speculators, could also draw real barrels into the market, because the price structure isn’t profitable for any traders still storing physical crude. And relentless Asian buying may pause at some point, especially with Lunar New Year celebrations starting in early February. Higher-cost crude will start to dampen the profitability of refiners in the region.

    “There’s been a distinct shift in the financial oil market,” said Michael Tran, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets.

    Speculators are buying futures and holding onto them, scared that they’ll miss out on a further rally, he said.

    So is oil really the cheapest reflation asset? Or is it caught up in the speculative excess sparked by vaccine ‘return to normal’ fear-of-missing-out exuberance… like everything else?

     

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  • Deutsche Bank Warns 50% Of NYC Bankers Might Be Headed To Jacksonville In Latest Cost Cuts
    Deutsche Bank Warns 50% Of NYC Bankers Might Be Headed To Jacksonville In Latest Cost Cuts
    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/13/2020 – 17:15

    As Deutsche Bank continues with the biggest blood-letting on Wall Street since the collapse of Lehman Brothers, managers are reportedly planning to move thousands of Manhattan-based associates, often those with the most important front-office-type jobs in sales and trading.

    Ever since DB moved to expand its presence in the Americas during the late 1990s-2000s, thousands of young employees, from interns to first-year analysts, have flocked to places like Murray Hill and other parts of Manhattan to work at the city’s investment banks, and generally live the young banker lifestyle of late nights out at bars on the lower east side and hooking up with wannabe model types at the clubs and bars that dot (or rather, once dotted) the East Village and the LES.

    In the post-COVID era, many of these analysts might be sent to other more cost-effective parts of the country where Deutsche Bank already has a “presence”, according to DB Americas CEO Christiana Riley, one of the highest-ranking women on Wall Street.

    Riley told the FT that the NY head count could “conceivably” be cut in half in 5 years (a pretty aggressive time table). The bank currently has roughly 4,600 staff in Manhattan, which means some 2,300 could soon be reporting to DB’s offices in Jacksonville Fla., long considered a dumping ground, where the bank houses its compliance department. According to media reports, the bank’s compliance workers in the city have long been treated “lower than janitors” by a bank that’s become almost synonymous with criminal malfeasance (an impression that has only been strengthened, as unfortunate or undeserved as that might be, by the endless MSM reporting on the bank’s lending relationship with the Trumps.

    The FT specifically cites the Jacksonville office, along with another office in Cary, North Carolina, as likely destinations for these displaced workers. The British paper also noted that NYC has been  losing financial services jobs to cities like Dallas and Tampa for years, but that the pandemic, with its radical experiment in remote work, will likely accelerate the process.

    Florida seems to be a hot spot for financial workers, thanks to the warm climate and (more importantly) low taxes. Goldman Sachs is also reportedly moving its workers to the Sunshine State. And numerous hedge funds and family offices flock to the state for the tax advantages.

    The cost cuts will help DB’s US investment bank hit its target for 11% return on equity by 2022, up from 9% projected this year. That 11% target was first unveiled during CEO Christian Sewing’s big cost-cutting initiative announced last summer in the wake of the bank’s failed tie up talks with Commerzbank. Sewing reiterated the target during the bank’s investor day a week ago.

    Unfortunately, pretty soon, instead of spending summers, and then their first post-grad years, living it up in the big city “Young Money”-style, the bank’s incoming analysts will be kicking it in the Jacksonville swamp, a city that, despite its size, is probably best known as the hometown of rap-metal legends “Limp Bizkit”.

    What’s the point of working all those 7-day, 100+ hour weeks if you can’t experience the thrill of being 23 and living in a flex double somewhere east of Lexington?

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  • Morgan Stanley: We Are Bullish Because Central Banks Will Inject Another $2.8 Trillion Of Liquidity In 2021
    Morgan Stanley: We Are Bullish Because Central Banks Will Inject Another $2.8 Trillion Of Liquidity In 2021
    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/13/2020 – 16:48

    By Matthew Hornbach, chief rates strategist at Morgan Stanley

    Liquidity. It’s What’s For Dinner

    With futures contracts tied to the price of water starting to trade last week, this seems a good time to take a look at the impact of liquidity. Liquidity means different things to different people, so before digging in, let me explain what I have in mind. For some, liquidity is the ability to transact a high volume at a low price or bid/offer spread. Others define it as the ease of converting an asset into cash.

    The liquidity I’ll discuss here is what greases the wheels of financial transactions and usually emanates from central bank balance sheets. As these balance sheets expand, so does the supply of transactional currency – think of it as electronic money – relative to a given set of investment opportunities. As the supply of this currency increases, financing costs tend to decrease. As a result, the valuation of assets, and usually their prices, change.

    How do central banks control the supply of reserves via their balance sheets? They can flood the system by purchasing securities in the open market, i.e., quantitative easing (QE), and drain it by selling them or more commonly letting them roll off without reinvesting. The need for liquidity with which to transact grows with the economy, so monitoring its supply becomes a dynamic process. Keeping tabs on it is also the starting point for an analysis of liquidity’s waterfall effect on broad asset classes.

    Quantifying the impact of liquidity from its central bank balance sheet origins down the stream of risk-less and risky assets – the so-called portfolio balance channel – is difficult. Academic research has come to various conclusions, with consensus forming around the following: Central bank asset purchases affect prices of the assets that central banks purchase the most. As a result, opinions vary on the importance of incorporating liquidity into an investment framework.

    In the end, tracing the impact of central bank QE on asset prices is like following an ounce of water from one end of a river to the other. It’s practically impossible. Instead, we look for clues that suggest how the cash must be flowing. The leaf that floats downstream leads us to conclude that the ounce of water has flowed along with it. In markets, we first point to the decline of the US dollar (which we thought would result from the liquidity deluge). Then we focus on the unwillingness of government bond yields to rise alongside equities, even though breakeven inflation rates were more than happy to do so.

    In the absence of absolute proof, seeing is believing. Fixed income investors may remember the negative impact on financing conditions of reducing the reserves held at the Fed in 3Q19. And equity investors may recall how markets reacted in 4Q19 when the Fed reversed course, injecting reserves and improving financing conditions. But who will forget the never-before-witnessed liquidity injection in 2020? Central banks across the G10 will have injected US$4 trillion via government bond purchases alone by year-end.

    In the face of that sum, the idea that this tsunami of liquidity hasn’t had far-reaching impacts on asset prices seems outlandish. Naturally, incentives need to align for people to invest available funds. One such incentive in 2020 was the surprisingly strong rebound in economic activity. Another was zero or sub-zero risk-free rates. But the potency of incentives to invest excess cash moderates as the cash piles up. And piling up is an understatement. 2021 is going to be another big year for liquidity injection.

    On our projections, G10 central banks will inject another US$2.8 trillion of liquidity next year – just in their government bond purchases. To put this in context, that’s more than twice the amount of liquidity central banks injected in any year prior to the one drawing to a close. Of course, this liquidity doesn’t have to find its way into financial markets immediately. It certainly didn’t this year, as evidenced by the US$4.5 trillion sitting in US money market funds today.

    But, if our economists are right and the global economy outperforms expectations, we think the ample liquidity environment will support riskier investments to the detriment of risk-less ones. That means the US dollar has further to fall against a host of G10 and EM currencies next year, and the safest investment of all – US Treasuries – will struggle to make ends meet.

    Of course, if central banks signal a reduction in liquidity earlier than we expect, or our economists’ buoyant expectations aren’t met, risky assets could experience a wobble, a theme that might very well feature in our 2021 mid-year outlook.

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  • Another Tesla Model S "Inexplicably" Bursts Into Flames
    Another Tesla Model S “Inexplicably” Bursts Into Flames
    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/13/2020 – 16:25

    According to Twitter account @_subia, her husband was driving a 2015 Tesla Model S when it “inexplicably” burst into flames in late November while driving down a neighborhood street in Frisco, Texas. 

    On Nov. 23, @_subia tweeted, “my husband @usmaan008 heard bangs while driving his beloved ⁦ @Tesla ⁩ & pulled over moments before it burst into flames. I was told we were lucky he got out when he did.”

    Source: @_subia

    By Dec. 2, @_subia was hoping for an explanation of why her husband’s Tesla “suddenly caught fire.”

    Source: @_subia

    On Dec. 12, @_subia now assumes “the tesla car battery exploded,” adding that her “husband almost took our kids with him. What if kids were buckled in car seats? He hasn’t been able to shake that thought. Or me being in that front passenger seat.”

    Source: @_subia

    Weeks later, after the Model S “inexplicably burst into flames” – Tesla has yet to investigate the incident. 

    “Tesla still hasn’t had a chance to investigate but I now fear for all our family & friends who drive Teslas. We just want answers.” 

    Tesla vehicles randomly exploding is not a new phenomenon. We reported in 2019 that a Tesla Model S “spontaneously” caught on fire in a Chinese parking garage.

    By late 2019, the US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration launched an investigation into a possible defect in the battery of some Teslas that could cause “non-crash fires.” 

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  • NIH Director Begs Americans To Swallow Vaccine Skepticism As Bill Gates Eyes Unofficial Role
    NIH Director Begs Americans To Swallow Vaccine Skepticism As Bill Gates Eyes Unofficial Role
    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/13/2020 – 16:00

    The director of the National Institutes of Health begged Americans to “hit the reset button” on their concerns over whether the COVID-19 vaccine, which was developed faster than any vaccine in the history of Western medicine, will be safe.

    “I would like to plead to people who are listening to this this morning to really hit the reset button on whatever they think they knew about this vaccine that might cause them to be so skeptical,” Dr. Francis Collins told NBC News’ “Meet the Press.”

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    Collins also said that it’s unknown whether someone who’s had the vaccine could still acquire the virus and silently spread to others around them – saying that “it will take us a couple of months to figure that out,” and that people still need to mask up and social distance.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsLet’s not forget that earlier his month a former Pfizer executive expressed dire concerns over the rushed vaccines, joining a German pulmonologist in calling for the European Medicine Agency to halt Pfizer vaccine studies until a design study could be created which addresses a host of serious safety concerns ranging from potentially fatal reactions to ‘infertility of indefinite duration.’

    Meanwhile, billionaire Bill Gates is looking forward to his foundation taking an unofficial role in the Biden administration, telling CNN‘s “State of the Union” on Sunday that while he doesn’t expect to take on a formal role, his foundation will liaise with the government on future infectious disease control, according to Bloomberg.

    “I talked with the president-elect about that,” said Gates, adding “I think our foundation will be part of that dialogue to make sure we don’t blow it again.”

    The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation announced on Wednesday that it will pledge an additional $250 million to fight COVID-19, on top of $1.5 billion it’s already committed.

    On Thursday, Melinda Gates said she was “incredibly disappointed” that President Trump signed an executive order to put Americans at the front of the line for vaccines, with CNNhost Poppy Harlow calling it “vaccine nationalism.”

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Dec 13

Today’s News 13th December 2020

  • If You Thought 2020 Was Bad, Watch What Happens In 2021
    If You Thought 2020 Was Bad, Watch What Happens In 2021
    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/12/2020 – 23:30

    Authored by Brandon Smith and originally published at Birch Gold Group,

    In terms of the economy and the American social situation, 2020 is definitely one of the ugliest years on record, there’s really no way around it. That said, I get the impression that many in the public are operating under the assumption that we are about to cross over the peak of the mountain and it will be all downhill from here on. Unfortunately, this is not the case.

    All eyes have been focused on the pandemic event, and the thinking is that once the pandemic is “over”, the crisis will be over and everything will go back to normal.

    But, as the globalists have been telling us since the outbreak began, the world “will never go back to normal again”. It’s not because of the pandemic, mind you, it’s because THEY won’t allow things to go back to normal. The “great reset”, as the World Economic Forum calls it, is meant to go on for many years. And, the globalists intend that every aspect of our lives be changed into something almost unrecognizable.

    First I want to make it clear that I don’t expect the reset agenda to be successful. In fact, I think it’s going to fail miserably. The globalists have reached too far too fast and exposed themselves, and millions upon millions of people around the world and in America are not buying the pandemic narrative. But here is the problem; the pandemic is a distraction from a much greater threat, namely the economic collapse that is developing right now.

    The financial downturn has been created by international banks and central banks through massive debt creation and inflationary stimulus measures. The initial spark for the wildfire took place in 2008, the economic threat has been under the noses of the public for quite some time. Now, however, the establishment has some perfect scapegoats, including the Trump Administration as well as the coronavirus. The globalists are hoping that people will become so mesmerized by the pandemic crisis and the election fight that they will rest all blame for the collapse on those two ready-made targets.

    Make no mistake, the economy was put on life support long before Trump ever entered office and long before anyone ever heard of COVID-19. The globalists are simply pulling the plug right now and letting it die.

    Of course, stock markets remain high, but the stock market does NOT represent the economy. It does not reflect financial health or the stability on main street. The stock market is an artificially propped up Pavlovian bell designed to make the public salivate every time the tickers go green. A majority of people tend to associate stock prices with economic improvement (mainly people who know nothing about economics or stocks). The extent of their research is 15 minutes of mainstream news a day along with 30-second reports on the Dow rising or falling, that is all. A rising Dow is enough to keep a large percentage of the population believing that things are going to get better.

    Eventually stocks will crash along with almost everything else, just as they did in the hyperinflated markets of Weimar, Germany.

    But, what the public should be focused on is small business closures, including U-6 measurements, retail spending while stimulus is cut off, eviction notices, etc. This will tell you what the actual story is behind the economy.

    There are certain events that could also expedite the downturn, and we must be wary of black swans right now. The financial system has been made so fragile over the past decade that any single major shock could bring it down (remember 2008?). Let’s not mistake stimulus for resilience. Stimulus has its limits and I believe we are hitting those limits as we enter 2021.

    Here are some of the events I predict will happen next year, along with the effects they will have on the stability of America and many other parts of the world…

    Contested Election Continues into January

    State electors are supposed to finalize the presidential election results a week from now, but I suspect legal battles may prevent the electoral college from completing the tally. This could lead to electoral college results being ignored, and the fight for the White House continuing into next year (unless the Supreme Court can hear all arguments and come to a decision in record time).

    Growing evidence of election fraud specifically in Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Michigan has led many conservatives to question the outcome of the presidential election. I don’t think the majority of the doubters will accept a Biden presidency even if Trump decided to concede.

    What I think is more likely is that Trump will stay in office beyond the January inauguration day, and that the political left will suddenly realize that the election was not as absolute as they originally assumed.

    The contested election would not cause economic instability directly, but it would mean that the public will be knocked out of their stupor and that their faith in the future will be shaken. Overvalued, fragile financial systems rely on the “greater fool” to support prices and need the blind faith of the population in order to continue lurching forward. That faith is about to be tested.

    Mass Protests, Riots, Possibly Armed Conflict

    I have become rather suspicious of the behavior of the mainstream media these days, even more so than usual. Why? Well, every time a hard fact on election fraud is released, the media has chosen to lie outright about it. And I’m not talking about clever spin in an attempt to diminish the effect of the news, I’m talking about outright lying that could easily be checked and debunked by anyone.

    This kind of disinformation would never convince conservatives or even intelligent moderates because we double-check the sources. People on the political left, though, are more inclined to believe whatever the MSM says without doing their own research. I’m beginning to wonder if the media is pulling the same stunt they did in 2016: giving leftists false hope through misinformation, so that when things don’t go their way, they will become enraged as if something was stolen from them.

    Is the media setting up the left for an epic shock by refusing to report any of the legitimate election fraud evidence and making them think there is no case? Is the goal to hit leftists so hard with Trump staying in office that they riot viciously in response?

    Maybe I’m wrong and Biden goes into office without any obstructions as many expect. Let’s be honest, though, there are only two ways the election situation can go at this point:

    In light of election fraud evidence, Trump stays in office. Leftists riot en masse claiming the presidency has been stolen. Conservatives will be asked to support martial law measures to “stop the insanity.” By supporting martial law, conservatives would sacrifice the very constitutional protections and liberties they claim to defend.

    Biden enters the White House under heavy suspicion of fraud. He then tries to institute a Level 4 national lockdown in the name of stopping the pandemic. With the death rate for the virus well under 1% for anyone not living in a nursing home with preexisting conditions, and no evidence that mask mandates do anything to stop the virus spread, millions of American refuse to comply. The states and communities that do comply will suffer even more small-business closures and unemployment.

    Biden would then try to initiate martial law measures, erasing civil liberties and possibly triggering a civil war.

    Medical Passports and Vaccination Blackmail

    Government officials are constantly in the media these days claiming that vaccinations will not be made mandatory. What they don’t mention is that they are already trying to legislate that anyone without a vaccination or medical passport will be unable to participate in normal society or even be allowed to work in their job. This program is moving at an incredibly fast pace, which makes me think the globalists realize they are losing the battle for the minds of the citizenry and they need to rush their agenda before it’s too late.

    Here is what will happen in 2021 in terms of the pandemic:

    1. The media and elitist organizations will continue to pump up the infection numbers to frighten the public, even though the death rate is so low it makes the infection rate meaningless.

    2. If Biden is in office, mandates will be made into a federal issue and will be federally enforced.

    3. If Trump is in office, state governments will try to enforce mandates and major corporations will help them.

    4. There will then be a major push to require medical passports proving a person is not infected to enter into any public place. This means submission to 24/7 contact tracing or getting a new vaccine whenever ordered to. Basically, your life will be under the total control of state or federal governments if you want to have any semblance of returning to your normal life.

    5. If this process does not work and does not intimidate enough people into compliance, governments will seek to offer stimulus checks or a form of Universal Basic Income, but only for those people who agree to tracking through their cell phones and to vaccination.

    6. New mutations of COVID-19 will be conveniently found every year from now on, meaning the public will have to get new vaccinations constantly, and medical tyranny will never go away unless people take an aggressive stand.

    It Gets Worse From Here On…

    2021 will be far worse that 2020, but at least the lines will be drawn and the fight will be more clear to everyone. The economic crisis is what concerns me the most. The events listed above will complete the final downturn in the global system and America in particular. Such a financial crash would cause far more chaos and death than the coronavirus ever could.

    Ultimately, I believe the public will respond badly to pandemic mandates. Many conservative states and counties will simply refuse to enforce them. However, the question is, will people end up fighting each other and forget all about the globalists that created the problem in the first place? Will mass poverty succeed where the pandemic failed in convincing Americans to give up their liberties in exchange for some stability?

    Distractions abound, and the reset agenda looms, but I don’t see the globalists coming out of this unscathed. Too many people now know who they are and what they are up to.

    *  *  *

    With global tensions spiking, thousands of Americans are moving their IRA or 401(k) into an IRA backed by physical gold. Now, thanks to a little-known IRS Tax Law, you can too. Learn how with a free info kit on gold from Birch Gold Group. It reveals how physical precious metals can protect your savings, and how to open a Gold IRA. Click here to get your free Info Kit on Gold.

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  • Massive Riot Breaks Out At India iPhone Factory Over Unpaid Wages
    Massive Riot Breaks Out At India iPhone Factory Over Unpaid Wages
    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/12/2020 – 23:00

    On Saturday, disgruntled employees at an iPhone manufacturing plant in India ransacked the facility over unpaid wages.

    At least 2,000 employees at the Narsapura plant of Wistron Corporation, a Taiwan-based company that manufactures devices for Apple, “went on a rampage destroying the company’s furniture, assembly units and even attempted to set fire to vehicles,” according to The Times of India. 

    Violence broke out during a change of shifts at the plant over the non-payment of promised wages, local officials said. Source: The Indian Express

    In the videos below, employees flipped vehicles at the plant, along with destroying everything in sight. 

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    Speaking to Indianexpress.com, Kolar Police Head Karthik Reddy said:

    “The employees demanded the payment pending for a few months and met the Human Resources Department officials on Saturday.” 

    Wage problems had been festering at the plant for some time. Police said the incident on Saturday resulted in at least 80 arrests. 

    It’s still too early to tell if the riot has created any supply chain disruptions – considering Apple has moved at least a fifth of iPhone production from China to the country. 

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  • "Hillary Hates Him & Biden Calls Him A Terrorist" – Aussie MP Urges Trump To Pardon Assange
    “Hillary Hates Him & Biden Calls Him A Terrorist” – Aussie MP Urges Trump To Pardon Assange
    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/12/2020 – 22:00

    Nationals MP George Christensen has joined the growing chorus of activists calling for President Trump to pardon WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange before he leaves the White House.

    Assange is currently being held in London’s Belmarsh prison, awaiting a decision on his extradition case to the US.

    On Saturday, in an interview with Sky News Australia, Christensen told Sky News host Brent O’Halloran that Assange “has been a target of the Democrats, adding that “Hillary Clinton hates his guts, obviously, for exposing who the real Hillary was, and you’ve had a war on Assange by the Democrats and the deep state.” 

    He told O’Halloran that president-elect Joe Biden has called Assange a criminal and a “hi-tech terrorist.”

    Christensen argues that a pardon for the WikiLeaks founder “is one way which he can stand up for free speech.” He said it would irritate the Democratic establishment and would “poke the deep state in the eye.”

    Christensen concluded by calling the US “one of the greatest nations in the democratic world” and that “great document of democracy that is the United States Constitution is free speech and freedom of the press.” 

    “So I’m hoping that he will pardon Julian Assange. It’s the right thing to do.”

    Watch the three-minute interview here: 

    In addition to Christensen, filmmaker Oliver Stone recently called for the president to pardon Assange and Edward Snowden without whom we wouldn’t know about intrusive government surveillance programs, the US’ aggressive drone strike program, or that Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign manager.

    Even longtime Assange friend and previously rumored ex-girlfriend Pamela Anderson has become creative in her direct appeals to Trump, tagging the president in a Twitter post featuring a stripped-down bikini photoshoot of herself holding a sign that reads “Bring Julian Assange home.”

    “The deep state Trump is serving by persecuting Assange is the same deep state that continues to plot Trump’s own ouster. Free Assange!” Ron Paul said earlier this year. 

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  • No Need For Vaccine This Year: Australia's Chief Medical Officer
    No Need For Vaccine This Year: Australia’s Chief Medical Officer
    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/12/2020 – 21:30

    Authored by Andi Yu via The Epoch Times,

    Acting Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly says Australia’s success against coronavirus means, unlike other countries, we can wait for full vaccine approvals.

    Australia’s top doctor says news of the U.S. drug regulator granting emergency use of the Pfizer vaccine – like the UK and Canada have also recently done – is not necessary in Australia.

    “We don’t need any vaccine this year,” Kelly told reporters in Canberra on Saturday.

    “Other countries are in far different state than us and they should be prioritised.”

    Australia will wait for the Therapeutic Goods Administration—the national drug regulator—to run through its own approvals of the Pfizer vaccine with the expectation it will be distributed in early 2021.

    He highlighted the nation’s success at controlling virus transmission.

    “Today is eighth day in a row we’ve not had any community transmission,” Kelly said.

    “That’s the first time we’ve been able to say that since February.”

    This is compared with the fact that Friday was the most deadly day of the virus yet, with more than 13,000 deaths and skyrocketing infections, Kelly said.

    The emphasis right now is on having an impenetrable hotel quarantine system.

    “Whilst we’re concentrated on bringing Australians home… we have to make sure absolutely that our hotel quarantine system is the very best it can be,” Kelly said.

    He said he had “all confidence” in the Victorian contract system now it had been revamped and international flights had resumed since Monday.

    Victoria ended it’s 42-day virus-free streak on Saturday as five international arrivals in hotel quarantine tested positive.

    Other states are handling more active cases in quarantine, with eight fresh cases recorded across other states in the past 24 hours.

    Kelly said the Pfizer vaccine had reported excellent interim results in the New England Journal of Medicine, showing 95 per cent effectiveness in people of all ages, healthy or chronically ill.

    It had a strong safety profile but the TGA would still go through its own process, he said.

    Australia has pre-purchased 10 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine and has secured extra doses from other vaccine manufacturers.

    An extra 20 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine and a further 11 million of Novavax have been ordered to boost supplies after the University of Queensland-CSL’s vaccine effort was abandoned.

    Asked whether five former prime ministers could be among the first to be vaccinated against the virus in Australia, Kelly indicated they wouldn’t necessarily be.

    The priority groups will be people at high risk of infection, those at high risk of exposure and front line health workers.

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison has said any vaccine rollout in Australia will only happen with full TGA approval.

    “Without the tick there’s no jab,” he said on Friday.

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  • 2020 Is Ending With 93% Of Global Economies Contracting… And With Markets At All Time Highs
    2020 Is Ending With 93% Of Global Economies Contracting… And With Markets At All Time Highs
    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/12/2020 – 21:00

    As BofA’s European credit strategist, Barnaby Martin, puts it in one of the final issues of his European Credit Strategist report for the year, “2020 is ending with one of the most predictable and potent themes of the last decade: central bank activism.”

    Case in point: on Thursday the ECB doubled down on more of the same as it delivered more PEPP, longer PEPP, further reinvestments and an extension of favourable TLTRO conditions. According to Martin, “while not as novel as some of the ECB meetings gone by, the aim of Thursday’s package was to maintain “favorable” funding conditions across all markets (to ensure the swift return of business and consumer confidence).” For those who missed it, this is what the ECB did, to quote Martin:

    Lagarde gave bond markets another dose of PEPP: a €500bn increase in the envelope and an extension of buying until March 2022. Thus, big QE will still be with markets for some time.

    But as this week’s PEPP disclosure shows, the programme is now almost exclusively about buying government debt (Chart 13). Instead, weekly APP has become more relevant for gauging the pulse of ECB corporate bond buying (Chart 14). Notice how the share of corporate bond buying has been rising here.

    Although the euro spiked and markets appeared initially disappointed by the ECB’s measures, by the end of the day “longer-end rates had rallied and IG credit spreads were broadly unchanged” Martin writes and adds that “what’s clear is that financial repression lives on for another year…a bullish backdrop, which will continue to elicit a thirst for yield across debt markets, in our view.”

    Just in case it’s not that “clear”, the BofA strategist explains that the message from the ECB is that “the key message underlying everything was that favourable financing conditions must be preserved across all markets: banks, sovereigns and corporates.”  And as he further notes, what the ECB did “should be thought of as akin to Yield Curve Control for credit.” Which also means that if corporate yields are under lock and key for 2021, “then credit vol likely will sink further next year, continuing to support the thirst for yield and compression trade in credit.”

    That said, while anyone who has dared step in front of hits liquidity firehose, which as we noted on Friday amounts to $1.3 billion in asset purchases every hour, has been absolutely crushed…

    … there is a distinct risk as we head in 2021.

    First some context: as Martin puts it, “it’s hard to escape how powerful the policy “supernova” has been this year, against a backdrop of historically horrendous growth.” And just to put it perspective, his next is absolutely staggering: “2020 is ending with 93% of economies across the world having contracted (Chart 1), with 53% shrinking this year by more than 6% (versus just 17% of economies in 2009).”

    At the same time, global stocks are trading at all time highs, and 2020 is ending with 70% of European IG bonds having tightened year-to-date now, almost entirely because of the monetary support heaped on markets by central banks in Q2. According to Martin, this dichotomy is nowhere greater than in the case of the UK, whose expected contraction (BofA estimates -11.3%) will go down as the worst economic decline since 1709, according to Bank of England data (back then, the “Great Frost” scuppered global trade, leading to significant food shortages and deaths). Nonetheless, Sterling credit has generated excess returns of +3.2% year-to-date.”

    Far from a blessing however, Martin counters that for long-term IG credit investors, this unprecedented rally combination has created a negative yielding headache, as the new year dawns:

    • The average IG corporate bond yields are now just 19bp,
    • Average 1-5yr corporate bond yields stand at just 1bp,
    • and investors have to buy 10yr credit, or longer now, to avoid the problem of negative yields (Chart 6), implying credit duration will likely become very crowded next year.

    As Martin said previously, credit compression is the clear theme that has to emerge from this, as IG investors lose enthusiasm for negative yielding bonds and surf for opportunities elsewhere…such a junk. To be sure, high-yield has been a remarkable beneficiary of this liquidity gusher. But note the “squeeze” potential as this reallocation plays out. Chart 7 shows the total amount of IG negative yielding bonds, per sector, versus the total outstanding of HY debt, by sector.

    According to Martin, sectors to the left of the chart have a much bigger share of negative IG debt, than available HY bonds. Other things being equal, these high-yield sectors will be most prone to the squeeze effect next year.

    There is another, bigger issue: as Martin’s colleague, BofA CIO Michael Hartnett has argued for the better past ofd the past two months, the “Goldilocks” combo of recovering growth and steadfastly dovish central banks points to the growing risk of hubris in 2021 (and therefore market “wobbles”) as central banks may face a sudden reflation burst that puts in doubt their determination not to hike until 2023.

    Finally, and worst of all, even though it is only a matter of time before a big “wobble” hits, assets now have virtually no margin for error, so anyone buying here is virtually assured of losses:

    • Note that November ’20 was not only a record month for many global equity markets (ex-US stocks, for instance), but it was also a strong month for global fixed-income returns…a rare combination (Chart 4),
    • And periphery debt has rallied so strongly of late, that average peripheral government debt yields are now a smidgen away from turning negative (Chart 5).

    Of course, there is another glaringly obvious reason why the piper will have to paid for the euphoria of 2020, and that’s the ugliest four letter-word of them all: “Debt” – as Martin notes – has been synonymous with the 2020 COVID crisis, as economic shutdowns have battered sovereign revenues (leading to record budget deficits) and governments have unleashed a fiscal firehose to protect society from collapse. The latest BIS debt data now available for Q2, shows jumps in debt/GDP of “epic proportions” in this crisis:

    • The global debt-to-GDP ratio surged to an all-time high in 1H-20 of 267%, jumping 11pp in Q1 ’20 and then a further 15.7pp in Q2 ’20. This is the largest QoQ change on record (Chart 8).
    • While global debt/GDP surged everywhere, it was governments that sustained the biggest increase in leverage, with the global sovereign debt/GDP ratio jumping 21pp in 1H’20 to 99.3% (Chart 9).
    • In this crisis, governments have sought to shield the private non-financial sector, and households. Accordingly, global non-financial sector debt/GDP ticked-up by “only” 10pp in Q2 ’20, vs Q1 ’20. Households’ debt-to-GDP rose by only 3pp.
    • Advanced economies, which were at the centre of the Covid-19 outbreak in the spring and the autumn, have deployed greater policy measures than their Emerging Markets (EM) peers. Hence the sharp 25pp increase in debt/GDP this year for the former (Chart 10).
    • The global economy added $11tr of debt in 1H ’20, a record, while the Covid-related recession shaved near $4tr to the global output (Chart 12).
    • Non-financial corporates (NFCs) in the largest economies have increased debt to build up cash buffers in this crisis (Chart 11). This is a striking difference with the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in ’08/’09, when NFCs, especially in the Euro Area, focused on debt reduction.

    And some more terrifying charts:

    For now this unprecedented debt tsunami is not an issue, but the moment inflation does pick up in earnest and the selling of duration (and by implication the ultra-high duration “growth” stocks which have led the S&P for the past decade…

    … begins, we suggest you panic.

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  • California, NJ Report New COVID Records; Peru Halts Sinopharm Trial: Live Updates
    California, NJ Report New COVID Records; Peru Halts Sinopharm Trial: Live Updates
    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/12/2020 – 20:33

    Summary:

    • California, NY & NJ report new cases
    • Peru halts Siopharm vaccine trial
    • CDC approves COVID
    • Cases see new daily record
    • US tally nears 16MM
    • Pfizer vaccine approved for EUA by FDA
    • Hospitalizations remain elevated in west and midwest
    • Poland sees chance of reopening schools

    * * *

    Update (0820ET): More record COVID numbers were reported across the US on Saturday, with California counting more than 35K new cases for the second straight day, while New York’s infections quickened and New Jersey reported record cases on Saturday.

    In other news, Peru has temporarily suspended trials of Sinopharm’s vaccine after an unspecified “adverse event” was reported during clinical trials in the South American country. Phase 3 trials started there in September. Once one of the worst hit countries on the continent, Peru has seen more than 980K cases and 36.5K deaths. Brazil suspended trials of a Chinese vaccine last month after a reported death involving a trial participant, though enrollment was restarted less than 48 hours later.

    In the US, a panel of CDC advisors voted to recommend that people age 16 and older receive Pfizer-BioNTec vaccine, clearing one of the last hurdles for US vaccinations to begin, though director Dr. Robert Redfield must still give his blessing.

    * * *

    As we head into mid-December, the typical holiday lull is being punctuated this year by the worsening coronavirus pandemic in the US. As Europe’s cases and hospitalizations start to decline, the US, Brazil, and a handful of other smaller countries are emerging as the primary drivers of global case numbers, which remain at record levels.

    Nearly 700K new cases are being reported around the world each and every day, with the global total topping 71K, as US cases, meanwhile, neared 16MM following a record jump of nearly 300K (297.6K according to Reuters). The COVID Tracking Project had the daily number at a lower number 232K, though still a new daily record.

    Hospitalizations rates remain the most elevated in the midwest and west.

    While North Dakota, one of the worst hit states during the fall-winter resurgence, has seen its death rate rise into the top five in the country.

    Following reports of pressure from the Trump Administration (WaPo claimed Trump’s chief of staff Mark Meadows told FDA chief Dr. Stephen Hahn to either make sure the approval gets done Friday, or hand in his resignation, a story that elicited some laughs, but wasn’t widely reported outside of the MSNBC/CNN cable TV matrix). Trump heralded the approval as “a medical miracle”. The US is the fifth country to approve the vaccine, after the UK, Canada, the UAE and – of course – the Saudis.

    As New Yorkers visit restaurants for their last hurrah as hundreds of establishments from around the city prepare to close their doors (for good) as Gov Cuomo’s ban on indoor dining takes effect on Monday without offering any kind of additional support to the industry and the workers who power it. Across the country, the LA County Department of Public Health announced new cases and deaths each day, as do the independent agencies governing Long Beach and Pasadena. Not all of the agencies provide a tally of how many people have recovered from COVID-19.

    “We worked quickly because of the urgency of this pandemic, not because of any external pressure,” Hahn said Saturday on a call with reporters.

    Looking ahead, the FDA’s decision to approve the Pfizer vaccine will now kick off a complicated immunization drive, as the FDA sets standards and hands them down to the states, who will inevitably tweak them, for enforcement and execution that’s likely to be as haphazard and varied as the national response to the virus.

    Here’s some more COVID news from overnight and Saturday morning:

    For the first time in decades, Mexico’s Roman Catholics have been forced to abandon what many consider the world’s largest religious pilgrimage, in which millions visit Mexico City’s Basilica of Guadalupe on 12 December (Source: Bloomberg).

    UPS will take part in the distribution of Pfizer-BioNTech’s covid-19 vaccine as part of Operation Warp Speed in the U.S. The doses will originate from storage sites in Michigan and Wisconsin, transported to UPS facilities in Louisville, before being expedited “Next Day Air” to destinations including hospitals and clinics, the company said in a statement (Source: Bloomberg).

    Poland sees chances for partially reopening schools from Jan. 18, provided restrictions imposed for winter holidays prove effective, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said in an interview with radio RMF FM. He also urged the European Union’s agencies to speed up the vaccine registration process (Source: Bloomberg).

    * * *

    Meanwhile, the US is offering resources to Pfizer to help expedite the process of procuring the “raw materials” the company needs to provide an additional 100MM doses to the US by mid-2021.

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  • Newt Gingrich On Georgia Runoff: "We Need To Win By A Bigger Margin Than The Left Can Steal"
    Newt Gingrich On Georgia Runoff: “We Need To Win By A Bigger Margin Than The Left Can Steal”
    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/12/2020 – 20:30

    Authored by Tom Ozimek and Jan Jekielek via The Epoch Times,

    Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) said in an interview that conservative voters need to head to the polls in the Georgia Senate runoffs in spite of their concerns about election integrity, to deliver a large margin of victory for GOP candidates that would erase any potential machinations on the left.

    “If you’re a conservative, you have to vote,” Gingrich told The Epoch Times’ “American Thought Leaders” on Dec. 11.

    “We need to win by a bigger margin than the left can steal. So we need to get every single conservative out.”

    The Senate runoff, which pits Sens. David Perdue (R-Ga.) and Kelly Loeffler (R-Ga.) against Democratic candidates Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, is key for both parties, with control of the upper chamber hanging in the balance.

    Republicans currently hold a 50-seat majority in the Senate, but if Democrats win both runoffs and also prevail in the contested presidential election, they’ll have control of the White House as well as both chambers of Congress.

    “These two runoffs are probably the most important runoffs in American history,” Gingrich said.

    “They have the potential to change the whole direction of the country.”

    If Democrat Joe Biden is sworn in as president and if Ossoff and Warnock win in Georgia, Gingrich said, “Biden will have a signal, he will be very radical.”

    “I think this is a huge decision point for the country,” he added.

    Sens. David Perdue (R-Ga.) and Kelly Loeffler (R-Ga.) in file photographs. (Getty Images)

    Gingrich referred to the ongoing controversy over presidential election-related irregularities and claims of fraud in Georgia, saying, “I personally have no doubt that Trump won more votes than Biden did, and that the difference, basically, was theft.”

    He said “there’s good reason for people to be concerned” and that he would like to see an election integrity and reform movement take shape in the future “to dramatically reform the election process to get back to honest elections.”

    Before such an initiative is launched, however, he said election integrity-related steps would likely be taken around the Georgia runoffs, including the Republican National Committee monitoring all of the ballot drop-boxes and GOP poll watchers observing county clerks as they send out ballots.

    “I think you’ll just see a much tighter process of one, turning out our vote with a much bigger turnout, the vote effort, and two, making it much, much harder to steal.”

    Gingrich said one of the reforms should be to change the absentee ballot law so that each ballot could be connected back to a voter during a recount.

    “Right now, you have 1.2 million absentee ballots, and they’re basically just a big lump. I mean, once they took the ballot out of the envelope, they got rid of the envelope, and so you have no way of going back and having an honest recount, because you don’t know where the ballots came from.”

    Asked whether the added security measures in place for the runoffs would address this issue, Gingrich said, “We think that we’re making it harder, that’s the way I would put it.”

    “I think that there will still be some cheating, but I think that the amount of time and effort being put into policing it is dramatically bigger than it was in November,” he said.

    Gingrich’s remarks about the importance of conservative voters turning out for the runoffs was echoed by Perdue in a recent interview on Fox News, when he argued that a GOP majority in the upper chamber is the “last line of defense” against a radical leftist agenda.

    “This is illogical for any Republican to think that, ‘Oh, I’m just going to sit down and not vote,’” Perdue said in the interview.

    “We know what’s at stake. This is the last line of defense against their radical liberal agenda that once they do this, we won’t get it back.”

    *  *  *

    Follow Tom on Twitter: @OZImekTOM

    Follow Jan on Twitter: @JanJekielek

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  • People Were Pouring Out Of US Cities Like LA And New York Even Before COVID Started
    People Were Pouring Out Of US Cities Like LA And New York Even Before COVID Started
    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/12/2020 – 20:00

    The pandemic hasn’t just brought with it economic turmoil; it has also highlighted a trend of people fleeing U.S. cities in favor of the suburbs. The exodus has been helped along by liberal politicians embracing a “defund the police” message in the cities where policing is needed the most – like Chicago, which we have documented – making the decision to leave cities much easier for many people. 

    But surprisingly, the wheels were already in motion for this trend prior to the pandemic, a new report from Bloomberg notes. 

    The report points out that New York was losing 376 residents per today to domestic migration already in 2019. This marked an increase in more than 100 people per day, the report notes. 

    Justin Hollander, a professor of urban and environmental policy and planning at Tufts University, said: “New York’s population decline has been building up before Covid. It will certainly accelerate as preferences for lower-density environments drives populations.”

    And it’ll also accelerate as international arrivals slow down. Last year almost 60,000 people moved to New York while 200,000 people left. Arrivals will continue to be muted as travel and air traffic are both still mired in red tape relating the pandemic.

    LA and Chicago saw similar trends last year. In fact, both cities “have been losing population since 2017”, Bloomberg noted. The appeal of states like Florida and Texas has grown and “shows no sign of ebbing”, according to Hollander. The six cities that saw inflows of more than 100 people per day “were all in the south”, the report notes – including cities like Phoenix and Dallas. 

    In addition to more people leaving cities, the number of births across the country looks as though it is going to trail prior years. 

    This won’t just affect population numbers, but tax revenue for states. New York lost $9.6 billion in resident earnings in 2016 and 2017 due to the outflows. For every $1 of income brought into the state, $1.80 was lost, the report notes.

    “Residents who earn $100,000 or more make up 80%” of the income tax base in New York, it says. 

    Perhaps having never studied the Laffer Curve in Econ 101, this apparently seems like a great reason for Mayor De Blasio and Governor Cuomo to lob countless regulations and new taxes onto their citizens while embracing the chaos and lawlessness that has developed in their streets throughout the year. 

    Like politicians in California, New York’s political leaders don’t seem to notice the effect that their policies are having. But maybe when the cities become barren and the state is on the verge of economic collapse it’ll become clearer. We’re not holding our breath, though. 

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  • The "Expert Consensus" Also Favored Alcohol Prohibition
    The “Expert Consensus” Also Favored Alcohol Prohibition
    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/12/2020 – 19:30

    Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The American Institute for Economic Research,

    Most people today regard America’s experiment with alcohol prohibition as a national embarrassment, rightly repealed in 1933. So it will be with the closures and lockdowns of 2020, someday. 

    In 1920, however, to be for the repeal of the prohibition that was passed took courage. You were arguing against prevailing opinion backed by celebratory scientists and exalted social thinkers. What you were saying flew in the face of “expert consensus.”

    There is an obvious analogy to Lockdowns 2020. 

    My first inkling of this prohibition history came in reading transcripts of the then-famous Radio Priest James Gillis from the 1920s. He was against prohibiting alcohol production and sale on grounds that the social costs far outweighed the supposed benefits. What surprised me was the defensiveness of his comments. He had to assure his listeners that he was personally for temperance, that alcohol was indeed demon rum, that it’s true that this nasty stuff had caused terrible things to happen to the country. Still, he said, outright bans are too costly. 

    Why was he so cautious in his rhetoric? It turns out that during the 1920s, he was one of the few famous American public figures (H.L. Mencken was also among them) who dared to speak out against what was obviously a disastrous policy. Reading this sent me down a rabbit hole of literature at the time in which it was argued by many leading intellectuals that Prohibition made perfect sense as a necessary step to clean up the social order. 

    To sum up the “science” behind Prohibition, society had tremendous numbers of pathologies on the loose and they all traced to one dominant variable: liquor. There was poverty, crime, fatherless households, illiteracy, political alienation, social immobility, city squalor, and so on. You can look carefully at the data to find that in all these cases, there is a common element of alcohol. It only stands to reason that eliminating this factor would be the single greatest contribution to eliminating the pathologies. The evidence was incontrovertible. Do this, then that, and you are done. 

    To be sure, the argument wasn’t always this clean. Simon Patten (1852-1922) was chair of the Wharton School of Business. His late 19th-century argument for alcohol prohibition featured a complicated argument concerning the weather in America. It gets cold then hot then cold and alcohol consumption seems to track these changes, driving people to drink ever more until their lives fall apart. 

    As summarized by Mark Thornton, who is the leading scholar on the economics of Prohibition and its history, “For Patten, alcohol is a product with no equilibrium in consumption. One is either good and abstains from alcohol, or one becomes a drunkard and self-destructs.”

    The most influential pro-Prohibition economist of the next generation was the rock star academic and social progressive Irving Fisher, whose contributions to making economics more about data than theory are legendary. So was his push for eugenics. No surprise if you know this period and such people, but he was also a passionate opponent of all alcohol. It was he who made a decisive difference in convincing Congress and the public that a complete ban was the right way. His oddly titled book Prohibition at Its Worst (1927) lays it all out. 

    The same year of its publication, Fisher called for a roundtable at the annual meeting of the American Economic Association. His own account is revealing. 

    I got a list of the economists who are supposed to be opposed to Prohibition, and wrote to them; they all replied either that I was mistaken in thinking that they were opposed to Prohibition or that, if we were going to confine the discussion to the economics of Prohibition, they would not care to respond. When I found that I was to have no speaker representing the opposite point of view, I wrote to all American economists listed in “Minerva” and all American teachers of statistics. I have not received from any one an acceptance. 

    Clearly his colleagues were either bamboozled by the prevailing “science” or afraid to disagree with the reigning orthodoxy. Even as political establishments were being corrupted, crime and liquor lords were rising up all over the country, and tens of thousands of speakeasies were thriving. Claiming that Prohibition had created $6 billion in wealth for the U.S. – a figure that was frequently cited as authoritative, Fisher wrote the following:

    Prohibition is here to stay. If not enforced, its blessings will speedily turn into a curse. There is no time to lose. Although things are much better than before Prohibition, with the possible exception of disrespect for law, they may not stay so. Enforcement will cure disrespect for law and other evils complained of, as well as greatly augment the good. American Prohibition will then go down in history as ushering in a new era in the world, in which accomplishment this nation will take pride forever. 

    To see how the $6 billion figure was calculated and to observe the rest of the astonishing mathematical gymnastics behind the “science” backing Prohibition, have a look at Thornton’s detailed presentation. It’s a perfect picture of pseudoscience in action. 

    But it was hardly unusual for the time. The Journal of the American Medical Association said of alcohol prohibition in 1920:

     “Most of us are convinced that it is one of the most beneficent acts ever passed by a legislature.” 

    Reading through all this literature, I’m reminded of the CDC scientific conclusion that closing restaurants during a pandemic will save lives – a conclusion based on a study so weak that anyone with a passing familiarity with statistics and causality can immediately observe its failings (the same study, if it demonstrates that, would also demonstrate that masks make no difference in virus spread). Another obvious case was the brutal and unscientific closures of schools. 

    Also true is that the opponents of Prohibition were routinely and publicly denounced as secret drunks, shilling for bootleggers, or just not following the science. They were the outliers and stayed that way for a decade. What finally broke Prohibition was not the replacement of one scientific orthodoxy for another but the noncompliance on the part of most of the population. When enforcement became unviable, and FDR saw opposition to Prohibition as politically advantageous, the law finally changed. 

    When we look back on American history, Prohibition stands out as one of the craziest social and economic experiments of modern times. The very idea that the government, on its own authority and power, was going to purge from a Western society the production and distribution of alcohol, strikes us today as a millennarian pipedream, one that turned into disaster for the whole country. 

    We could say the same about lockdowns in 2020. Indeed, measuring the absurdities on a scale of extremism, the idea of lockdowns, with forceful human separation, mandatory masking, and the practical abolition of all large gatherings, fun, art, and travel, seems even more sadistically preposterous than alcohol prohibition. 

    The madness of crowds, often backed by the “best science,” never goes away. It just finds new forms of legal expression in new times. Only once the crowds come to their senses do the real scientists make a comeback and prevail, while the fake science that backed despotism pretends like it never happened. 

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  • Marine Corps Want Swarming Kamikaze Drones   
    Marine Corps Want Swarming Kamikaze Drones   
    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/12/2020 – 19:00

    The US Marine Corps is in the process of acquiring portable ground-launched kamikaze drones capable of swarming over the modern battlefield to precisely takeout enemy troops, according to a new government notice. 

    The request was published on the government contract site Sam.Gov last month. The Marines detailed the need for an “individually operated, man-portable, anti-materiel, anti-personnel ground-launched loitering munition system” for fielding with infantry units. 

    Sam.Gov Request 

    The so-called “Organic Precision Fires – Infantry Light” program seeks a ground-launched drone that can be deployed with less than two troops. The request states other requirements, including it must have a range up to 12.4 miles, “capable of swarming,” and must operate for at least 90 minutes. 

    According to Defense News, the Marines are attempting to “reshape itself as a primarily maritime force that can distribute forces over a massive battlefield such as the South China Sea, operating inside the Chinese weapon engagement zone that may be too dangerous for many military assets to operate inside until certain key objectives can be seized or neutralized.”

    AeroVironment Switchblade Drone

    Bryan Clark, a retired submarine officer and senior fellow at The Hudson Institute, pointed out special operation forces have already used small munition drones in combat. 

    “The swarming idea would be, ‘How do I overwhelm the enemy’s defenses and cut off lines of escape,'” Clark explained. “If I’m a Marine unit, I’m generally going after a group of people, not just one or two guys the way SOF might be. But the idea here is to cause an area effect. You want to overwhelm defenses or cause explosions over a wider area to try and herd your adversary or cut off lines of retreat.

    “You might create a blast pattern or detonate in some kind of order that herds your adversary into an area that you want to be a kill box. So, swarming for the Marine Corps would be about driving your enemy’s behavior in ways advantageous to yourself.”

    Dakota Wood, a retired Marine and analyst with The Heritage Foundation, said in some ways small munition drones could be more effective than .50 caliber machine weapons.

    AI-powered swarming munition drones could become the most effective weapon to takeout the enemy on the modern battlefield. 

    “You are looking for weapon systems that can maximize the effectiveness of finding and eliminating a target while minimizing the logistical burden on the unit,” he said. “And you want to maximize the range and any intelligence that system can deliver to you.

    “If I have a .50 cal: Hugely heavy, massive logistics burden to carry around the ammo, its very effective on target but I got to get it on target first, and it’s certainly revealing my position. If I have a man-portable unmanned system that I can launch with a camera, it’s small in size so its detectability is reduced, it can send that information back to the unit and it can also hit a target with great precision: That’s an awesome capability to have.”

    In 2019, Russia’s Kalashnikov Group, a Rostec subsidiary, unveiled a new high-precision suicide drone, called the KYB UAV. 

    KYB UAV Drone

    KYB UAV Drone Approaches Target 

    We’ve also noted how an Israeli defense contractor a couple of years back faced allegations that it live tested a high tech suicide drone against Armenian troops in an active battle zone.

    What’s becoming evident is that the modern battlefield is rapidly transforming into a high-tech arena where small drones dominate. 

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  • "This Is Insane": NYC Small Businesses Furious At Indoor Dining Ban After Data Shows Restaurants Account For Only 1.4% Of Covid Cases
    “This Is Insane”: NYC Small Businesses Furious At Indoor Dining Ban After Data Shows Restaurants Account For Only 1.4% Of Covid Cases
    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/12/2020 – 18:30

    By Tanay Warerkar Of Eater New York,

    Yesterday, we reported that with in parallel with Andrew Cuomo’s decision to once again shut down indoor dining in New York starting Monday, more than half of the city’s restaurants are in danger of closing. Yet as Eater New York reports, many in the New York hospitality industry were dismayed by Cuomo’s decision as it followed close on the heels of new state data which showed that restaurants and bars in the state accounted for just 1.4% of cases over the last three months. While most were prepared for the ban to be announced this week, many felt the decision seemed to contradict the data.

    By comparison, private and social gatherings accounted for nearly 74% of COVID- 19 cases tracked by the state between September and the end of November, and the restaurant industry placed fifth overall among the various industries and activities contributing to the spread of the virus.

    “This is insane,” said Yann de Rochefort, founder of the tapas chain Boqueria.

    “They are basically shutting down an industry and throwing thousands of people out of work because restaurants were linked to 1.4 percent of cases? It is criminal.”

    Some in the industry say that restaurants have undertaken tremendous expense — while facing a revenue downturn due to the pandemic — to fit their indoor spaces with new air filters and other safety equipment, and that an indoor dining ban could encourage people to congregate in other areas including the several illicit, underground parties that have been busted in the last few months.

    “Today’s news will do nothing more than incentivize more unregulated indoor household gatherings, which have accounted for a whopping 73.84 percent of exposures,” said Melissa Fleischut, the CEO of the New York State Restaurant Association (NYSRA), in a statement.

    Some others say they are again being forced lay off or reduce hours for a large number of their staff members just before the holidays, with no guarantee that another round of federal coronavirus-related aid will come through.

    “I have to call my staff and break the news that they don’t have a job come Monday,” says Stratis Morfogen, the managing director of FiDi steakhouse Brooklyn Chop House. “I’m talking to busboys, dishwashers, wait staff and more to tell them the devastating news that they can’t feed their families.”

    Cuomo, though, says the state is being proactive, as it has recently been able to identify that indoor dining is the fastest growing source of the spread of COVID-19. “Restaurants are one of the few areas we think we can actually make a difference,” said Cuomo at a press conference Friday, adding that his government felt they had less control over the spread through other sources like air travel.

    Cuomo also pointed to the Centers for Disease Control’s latest guidance from last week that identified indoor dining as a high-risk activity during this second wave of the virus nationwide. Melissa DeRosa, the secretary to the governor, called out this guidance Friday saying it was impossible to eat indoors without taking off a mask, thereby creating a risky environment for the spread of the virus in an enclosed space.

    Cuomo also noted that the state was going to indefinitely extend the eviction moratorium for commercial tenants, potentially protecting restaurants and bars from losing their leases while the indoor dining ban remains in place.

    Since October, dozens of restaurants across the city have decided to preemptively close for the winter months — many never having reopened their dining rooms even after indoor dining was permitted at the end of the September — citing the safety of their workers, the downturn in business, and the weather. Though almost all said they had been able to negotiate agreements with their landlords in order to hit the pause button.

    Owners of restaurants that are staying open — and the ones hibernating — say that without rent forgiveness and federal aid, the industry could be headed toward a raft of permanent closures during the winter months, when outdoor dining will become largely untenable as structures outside need to have at least two open sides to allow for airflow.

    “Outdoor dining has declined dramatically, and losing indoor dining is going to be a nail in the coffin for a lot of business,” says Carlos Suarez, the founder of the hospitality group Casa Nela, which operates restaurants like Rosemary’s, Claudette, and Bobo.

    Since the start of the pandemic, more than a thousand restaurants have already closed due to the business downturn. As we noted on Friday, a recent survey by NYSRA estimates that a little more than half of the state’s restaurants are in danger of closing in the coming months without aid similar to the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), funds for which have now largely run out.

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  • Are You Ready For A Cookie Shortage This Holiday Season? 
    Are You Ready For A Cookie Shortage This Holiday Season? 
    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/12/2020 – 18:00

    Campbell Soup Co., the maker of Pepperidge Farm cookies, warned in an earnings call Wednesday that a cookie shortage could arrive this holiday season. 

    Campbell’s CEO Mark Clouse said cookies under the Pepperidge Farms brand, such as Milano and Chessman, face “supply constraints” due to the virus pandemic forcing people to stay home, which in return has driven up demand. 

    “This portfolio is unique with proprietary recipes, and therefore we do not outsource production,” Campbell told Bloomberg. “We’ve prioritized increasing supply and are already leveraging capacity opportunities across the network to meet increases in demand and maximize availability.”

    Supply constraints are hitting during the holiday season where cookie demand tends to surge. 

    Pepperidge Farm cookie demand rose 8.7% in the 13 weeks ending on Nov. 1, Campbell said. The company called cookie consumption this year, “sustained and very strong.”

    Data compiled by Top Data shows cookie consumption by Americans soared 25% since the start of the virus pandemic, with one in five Americans eating at least three or more cookies per day. 

    Source: Bloomberg

    As we’ve previously noted, food shortages have been happening all year as the food supply chain remains stressed. 

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  • 'Unhinged' Dem Rep. Urges Pelosi To Block 126 Republicans From Congress For Supporting "Insurrection Or Rebellion"
    ‘Unhinged’ Dem Rep. Urges Pelosi To Block 126 Republicans From Congress For Supporting “Insurrection Or Rebellion”
    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/12/2020 – 17:30

    On Friday, just before the Supreme Court rejected Attorney General Ken Paxton’s (R-Texas) explosive lawsuit challenging the results of the 2020 presidential election in four key swing states, Rep. Bill Pascrell Jr. (D-N.J.) asked House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) to refuse to seat members of the next Congress who support President Donald Trump’s effort to challenge the election results.

    Pascrell accused the 126 Republicans who supported the Texas lawsuit of “insurrection or rebellion” – or at least, of supporting “insurrection or rebellion” – against the Constitution.

    As Jonathan Turley details below, it appears that Rep. Bill Pascrell (D., NJ) has a serious problem with Republicans going to court.

      We recently discussed Pascrell’s absurd effort to disbar roughly two dozen Republican lawyers for challenging the results of the 2020 election. Now Pascrell is declaring that 120 House Republicans signing a “Friend of the Court brief” (or amicus brief) is tantamount to supporting a rebellion against the United States and that they should be blocked from taking their seats in Congress. I previously denounced Pascrell for his “dangerous form of demagoguery.” This latest call shows the demagoguery has reached a level of utter delusion.   

    From the outset of the Texas lawsuit, I stated that it was virtually guaranteed to fail on standing.  It did fail last night. However, courts are where we take cases alleging such injuries. Tens of millions of American believe that the election was not fair, including many Democratic voters.  Roughly 70 percent of Republican voters believe the election was stolen. Such challenges and concerns are brought to the courts where we can have disputes resolved without violence in a constitutional system.

    Pascrell has long denounced political critics of destroying the Constitution based on his disagreement with their views.  In the case of President Trump, he called for impeachment in 2019 on such undefined grounds as “disgrac[ing] his office and our nation beyond measure.”

    Rather than welcome such review, Democrats have launched a scorched earth campaign, including an abusive campaign of harassment and abuse by the Lincoln Project. These efforts notably began shortly after Biden was declared the presumptive winner of the election and before any challenges were actually ruled upon by the courts.

    Speaker Nancy Pelosi has also fueled such reckless rhetoric, declaring that the Republicans are “subverting the Constitution by their reckless and fruitless assault on our democracy which threatens to seriously erode public trust in our most sacred democratic institutions, and to set back our progress on the urgent challenges ahead.”

    Pascrell’s move against his colleagues mirrors language in the response of Pennsylvania’s Attorney General Josh Shapiro calling the Texas lawsuit “seditious.”  Seeking judicial review is the antithesis of sedition or rebellion. It is working within our constitutional system for a legal opinion on the merits of a challenge. These litigants have complied with court orders, as has President Trump.

    On Twitter, Pascrell declared

    “Stated simply, the men and women who would act to tear the United States Government apart cannot serve as Members of the Congress. These lawsuits seeking to obliterate public confidence in our democratic system by invalidating the clear results of the 2020 presidential election undoubtedly attack the text and the spirit of the Constitution, which each Member swears to support and defend.” 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Pascrell cites the 14th Amendment to argue that filing with a federal court is an act of rebellion and “trying to overturn a democratic election and install a dictator seems like a pretty clear example of that.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Pascrell’s call is utterly unhinged from any logical or constitutional foundation. Rebels do not storm the courts with legal filings. They overthrow courts with the rest of the constitutional system.

    Those who lack faith or fealty in our constitutional system are those who label litigants “rebels” and legal filings as forms of “rebellion” and “sedition.”

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  • Manhattan Apartment Rents Dive To Decade Low As Inventory Swells 
    Manhattan Apartment Rents Dive To Decade Low As Inventory Swells 
    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/12/2020 – 17:00

    As expected, given the dynamics of the pandemic driven exodus from New York City, Manhattan’s rental market has witnessed another massive plunge in rents, falling to a ten-year low.

    According to Bloomberg, citing a new report from appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and brokerage Douglas Elliman Real Estate, the borough’s median rental price plunged 22% in November from a year earlier to $2,743 a month. 

    In a previous Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel report, it was noted that more than 15,000 empty rental apartments were in Manhattan in August as the inventory of empty units hit 14-year highs. In October, the inventory was still above 15,000, with a vacancy rate around 6.14%, a record high. 

    Downward pressure on rents is expected to continue well into the first quarter of 2021 as restaurant restrictions and nightlife have been muted by strict social distancing restrictions. Employers have yet to call back workers into offices as remote working pushes city dwellers out to the suburbs. 

    “It’s still going to take a good part of 2021 to see prices stabilize,”said Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel. “It’s really contingent on how quickly people begin to return to the office.”

    The surge in empty apartments was widespread across the borough. Landlords are becoming desperate, offering move-in incentives on 57% of all new Manhattan deals last month. 

    So far, the incentives have worked. Newly signed leases soared 30% last month to 4,015 – the biggest November total in more than a decade, Miller said. But again, there’s so much inventory that it hardly made a dent in supply. 

    Other boroughs across the metro area in November saw rent declines as well, with landlords offering huge incentives. Brooklyn rents dropped 8.3% to a median of $2,619, while inventory rose to 4,134. In northwest Queens, including the waterfront neighborhood of Long Island City, rents plunged 21% to a median of $2,275.

    The virus’ effect on New York City has crushed the rental market if that is residential and or commercial – and it’s not just in the US. 

    Apartment prices in some of the world’s wealthiest cities are starting to show the effects of an exodus out of crowded city areas to move to more spacious suburbs. 

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  • Hunter Biden Subpoenaed Over Burisma, Two Dozen Other Entities As Part Of Four Investigations
    Hunter Biden Subpoenaed Over Burisma, Two Dozen Other Entities As Part Of Four Investigations
    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/12/2020 – 16:37

    Hunter Biden has been subpoenaed by federal investigators over his involvement with at least two dozen entities – including Ukrainian gas company Burisma, according to the Associated Press, citing a ‘person familiar with a Justice Department tax investigation.”

    News of the subpoena follows a joint announcement from Hunter and his father Joe Biden’s campaign last week which acknowledged that he was under investigation for tax fraud, with the Washington Post noting that Hunter had yet to be interviewed by the FBI or served with subpoenas.

    The subpoena, issued Tuesday, covers a wide swath of Hunter’s taxes and international business dealings – in what could be a serious case against the Biden family (or a serious attempt to put a DOJ ‘bow’ on the ‘matter’). AP notes that it’s unclear if Burisma is a central part of the investigation – despite Joe Biden admitting on tape that he had Ukraine’s chief prosecutor fired during the same period as said investigator, Viktor Shokin, was investigating Burisma’s founder for corruption.

    The subpoena also covers Hunter’s Chinese business dealings and other financial transactions. AP also notes that Hunter fell under investigation in 2018 – knowledge which somehow didn’t leak from the DOJ until after the 2020 election. During the election, of course, Hunter was completely off limits – with a virtual press blackout on the subject, and President Trump receiving a sharp rebuke from debate moderator Chris Wallace for bringing it up.

    The probe was launched in 2018, the year before his father announced his candidacy for president. At one point in the investigation, federal prosecutors were also examining potential money laundering offenses, two people familiar with the matter told the AP.

    Hunter Biden said he only learned of the investigation on Tuesday.

    The younger Biden joined the board of Burisma in 2014, around the time his father, then vice president, was helping conduct the Obama administration’s foreign policy with Ukraine. President Donald Trump and his allies have long argued, without evidence, that Hunter Biden’s work in Ukraine influenced the Obama administration’s policies toward the Eastern European nation. –Associated Press

    Meanwhile, Fox News reports that there are currently four investigations into Hunter.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    We’re sure Kamala Harris is genuinely concerned over the outcome of this investigation and hopes it doesn’t result in Joe Biden’s unceremonious exit from the teleprompter scene.

     

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  • It Is Striking How Similar Wall Street's Forecasts For 2021 Are
    It Is Striking How Similar Wall Street’s Forecasts For 2021 Are
    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/12/2020 – 16:30

    By Variant Perception

    Reflation narratives are becoming consensus, but there is little reason to be contrarian for contrarian’s sake

    Strategists are flooding client inboxes with year-ahead forecasts and themes, and it’s striking how similar the arguments are. The common conclusion from these reports is that portfolios should be positioned for an economic recovery.

    We are data-led, and there is nothing in our indicators to contradict the recovery view. There is little reason to be contrarian for contrarian’s sake at present, and we will stick to this view as long as the data justifies it.

    BAML’s global Fund Manager Survey shows that real money balances are shifting towards equities with cyclical overweights.  At the same time, equity analysts are revising their forecasts upwards for cyclical companies.

    Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond and Variant Perception

    However, we still think there’s a lot more room until reflation trades become crowded. Money-market assets are very elevated and we see from 2009’s experience that it takes a while for money to be deployed into riskier assets.

    Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond and Variant Perception

    While today’s recovery may not feel like one, the data is supportive. Our leading indicators are at historic highs.

    Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond and Variant Perception

    Weekly economic data also remains positive.

    Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond and Variant Perception

    We have maintained that there is a lot of stimulative potential waiting in the wings, but economic gains can only be realised as virus-related restrictions are eased.  The prospect of an effective vaccine is a massive boost to the recovery path.  As we discussed in a recent report, voluntary restrictions on mobility are a persistent drag on the recovery. So even as government-mandated restrictions remain, a timeline for a vaccine will allow fear to subside and help further lift economic activity.

    This is good news for European countries that are going through their second lockdown and have had their recoveries deferred.

    Europe will also see support from China’s strong recovery. China often leads eurozone economies, and so China’s recovery ultimately underpins the European recovery.

    Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond and Variant Perception

    Moreover, as Western demand has fallen, China has filled the vacuum in industrial markets.

    Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond and Variant Perception

    As Western demand recovers, this will strengthen the reflation dynamics that we usually see at the end of recessions. Copper vs gold is a useful barometer of global reflation that is continuing to recover. The continued rise in term premium is also consistent with the reflationary dynamics in play.

    Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond and Variant Perception

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  • Geologists Reveal Supervolcano May Lurk Beneath Alaska's Aleutian Islands
    Geologists Reveal Supervolcano May Lurk Beneath Alaska’s Aleutian Islands
    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/12/2020 – 16:00

    A group of geologists presented their recent findings at the American Geophysical Union’s (AGU) Fall Meeting 2020 conference this week and warned that an archipelago of volcanic islands off Alaska may contain an undiscovered supervolcano similar to Yellowstone and could cause “severe global consequences” if it would ever erupt.

    The new report, titled “Multi-Disciplinary Evidence for a Large, Previously Unrecognized Caldera in the Islands of Four Mountains, Central Aleutian Arc, Alaska,” was written by Diana Roman of the Carnegie Institution for Science in Washington, DC. 

    Roman said the area in question are islands of the Four Mountain in the central Aleutians are packed with a group of six stratovolcanoes named Carlisle, Cleveland, Herbert, Kagamil, Tana, and Uliaga.

    “Stratovolcanoes are what most people envision when they think of a volcano: a steep conical mountain with a banner of clouds and ash waving at the summit. They can have powerful eruptions, like that of Mount St. Helens in 1980, but these are dwarfed by far less frequent caldera-forming eruptions.”

    The geologist said the arrangement of the mountains suggest a caldera may exist. 

    “Unlike stratovolcanoes, which tend to tap small- to modestly-sized reservoirs of magma, a caldera is created by tapping a huge reservoir in the Earth’s crust. When the reservoir’s pressure exceeds the strength of the crust, gigantic amounts of lava and ash are released in a catastrophic episode of eruption.” 

    Roman said, “we’ve been scraping under the couch cushions for data,” referring to the challenge of studying such a remote place. “But everything we look at lines up with a caldera in this region.”

    If she is right, this would mean that Alaska has a ticking volcanic time bomb, on par with size of Wyoming’s Yellowstone supervolcano. 

    The team noted that more explorations of the Aleutians had to be completed to prove their hypothesis. If they’re correct, it would mean the hidden caldera would be the first in the area. 

    “Our hope is to return to the Islands of Four Mountains and look more closely at the seafloor, study the volcanic rocks in greater detail, collect more seismic and gravity data, and sample many more of the geothermal areas,” Roman said.

    Furthermore, NASA’s 1989 study titled “Volcanic eruptions and solar activity” indicates that solar flares smashing into the Earth’s atmosphere have the potential to increase volcanic activity. 

    “Solar flares are believed to cause changes in atmospheric circulation patterns that abruptly alter the Earth’s spin. The resulting jolt probably triggers small earthquakes which may temporarily relieve some of the stress in volcanic magma chambers, thereby weakening, postponing, or even aborting imminent large eruptions,” NASA said.  

    And if readers recall, we noted this week that Sunspot Cycle 25 is already underway and could be the strongest on record. 

    Meanwhile, NASA warned in 2019 that a catastrophic supervolcano’s eruption poses a bigger threat to humanity than does an asteroid.

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  • The Viral Assault On Small Businesses
    The Viral Assault On Small Businesses
    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/12/2020 – 15:35

    Authored by MN Gordon via EconomicPrism.com,

    This year, fear of a deadly pandemic triggered the ruling class to spread authoritarian lockdown orders.  The god of science, like a burning bush, told them to remove their sandals and deliver policies of regression.  A paranoid public was quick to comply.

    Humans have been battling viruses since well before the wheel was invented.  According to archaeologists, a fast moving epidemic roughly 5,000 years ago wiped out a prehistoric village in what is today northeastern China.  Dead bodies were stuffed inside a dwelling – the Hamin Mangha – that was later burned down.

    Another mass burial, the Miaozigou site, took place about the same time and in the same general area.  Together these discoveries suggest there was a rapid outbreak of an acute infectious disease.  An epidemic ravaged the entire region.

    The viral spread of submicroscopic pathogens has the potential to alter the flow of history.  Soldiers returning to the Roman Empire after war against Parthia in 165 AD brought back more than the spoils of conquest.  The Antonine Plague, which is suspected to have been smallpox or measles, claimed an estimated 5 million lives.  The epidemic had devastating consequences throughout the Roman Empire; perhaps bringing forward the demise of Pax Romana.

    About 1,350 years later Spanish forces, led by Hernán Cortés, delivered the gift of smallpox as they conquered the Aztec capital of Tenochtitlán.  About a decade after, Spanish conquerors spread the plague to the Incas.  An estimated 90 percent of the native population was killed off by the pestilence.  Aztec and Inca civilizations were swiftly wiped off the map and replaced by New Spain.

    Court of Sinister

    Plague of Athens.  Plague of Cyprian.  Plague of Justinian.  Black death.  Cocoliztli epidemic.  Great plague of London.  Great plague of Marseille.  Russian plague.  Philadelphia yellow fever epidemic.  American polio epidemic.  Spanish flu.  Asian flu.  Swine flu.  West African Ebola epidemic.  Zika virus epidemic.  And many others.

    Indeed, plagues come and go.  Yet they can dispense lasting consequences.  Sometimes, as is the case with coronavirus, pandemics have much less to do with the virus than the societal change the virus activates.  Marcus Aurelius, the last of the Five Good Emperors, in the time of the Antonine Plague, penned the following in his Meditations:

    “To bear in mind constantly that all of this has happened before.  And will happen again—the same plot from beginning to end, the identical staging.  Produce them in your mind, as you know them from experience or from history: the court of Hadrian, of Antoninus.  The courts of Philip, Alexander, Croesus.  All just the same.  Only the people different.”

    Maybe so.  But the plot in 2020 is staged in the court of sinister.  Fear of a deadly pandemic has opened the door for madmen to walk through.  Upon entering the court, they put into practice sinister plans for controlling populations and swelling dependency.

    According to state and local governments, constitutional rights are not rights at all; they’re privileges.  And they’ve been suspended in your best interest.  To keep you safe.

    Moreover, if you want to work, have extended family over for dinner, worship with a congregation, or walk down the street without a mask, you’re selfish.  You’re not doing your part to stop the spread.

    Klaus Schwab, a madman, and founder of the World Economic Forum (WEF) is a man of social science based totalitarian rule.  Individuals that think for themselves and pay their own way in life are not part of his master plan.  He prefers a docile public, subsisting one notch above poverty, that’s fully dependent on a global state.

    In his new book, “COVID-19: The Great Reset,” Schwab and his co-author admit that COVID-19 is “one of the least deadly pandemics in the last 2000 years.”  Yet the ruling class has acted like this is the new smallpox.  What gives?

    The Viral Assault On Small Businesses

    COVID-19 has provided the perfect cover Schwab’s disciples to assault one of America’s remaining expressions of freedom and independence: small businesses.  With lockdowns, politicians get to pick and choose what businesses survive and what businesses don’t.  They get to decide who’s essential and who isn’t.

    By and large, corporations, having interests aligned with politicians, are considered essential.  Small businesses aren’t.  Walmart lives.  Dick’s barbershop dies.  McDonald’s survives.  Tito’s Tacos doesn’t.

    What’s more, legislation with the supposed intent to stop the spread of coronavirus has devastated small businesses.  Roughly 100,000 small businesses have permanently closed.  At the same time, big corporations are reaping record profits.

    One of the more tyrannical laws, which is acting as a viral assault on small businesses, is something warmly named the Families First Coronavirus Response Act (FFCRA).  Attorney Ash Staub explains:

    “The FFCRA, passed in March of this year, requires businesses to provide two weeks of paid sick leave for quarantined employees and/or employees experiencing COVID-19 related symptoms.  It also requires two weeks of paid sick leave at two-thirds the regular rate of pay for employees who need to care for quarantined individuals, such as elderly relatives or spouses.  Furthermore, employers must also provide ten weeks of extended leave, also at two-thirds the regular rate of pay, for employees caring for their children due to school closures.

    “The FFCRA only applies to employers with fewer than 500 employees.

    “Thus, the FFCRA has imposed financial obligations on small businesses while exempting big businesses.  Small businesses are forced to pay the cost of complying with the FFCRA, while big businesses are not.  Small businesses are at risk of FFCRA-related lawsuits; big businesses are not.  The FFCRA clearly disadvantages small businesses, and expecting small businesses to incur the cost of the FFCRA while their revenue plummets, and their corporate competition profits, is a recipe for widespread small business bankruptcy.”

    And for every small business that’s crushed by autocratic rule there’s the corresponding loss of the owner’s dreams and their employee’s livelihoods.  But that’s not all.  It also denotes another step from freedom and liberty towards control and dependency… and into a darker more medieval world.

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  • "Please Have Keys Made": Joe Biden Was Chinese Financier's "Office Mate" According To Hunter Biden Email
    “Please Have Keys Made”: Joe Biden Was Chinese Financier’s “Office Mate” According To Hunter Biden Email
    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/12/2020 – 15:10

    Joe Biden – who swore throughout the 2020 election that he had ‘no knowledge’ of son Hunter’s business dealings – was described in a 2017 email as “office mates” with a Chinese financier and “emissary” to a PLA-linked (and now bankrupt) Chinese energy conglomerate that the Biden family tried to cash in on according to text, email, and sworn evidence from Hunter Biden’s laptop and multiple whistleblowers.

    Before reading further, keep in mind that the FBI and AG Bill Barr knew all of this and sat on it during the 2020 election (and Trump’s impeachment), while Fox News debate moderator Chris Wallace made Biden corruption ‘off limits’ during the first presidential debate.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    In a September, 2017 email found on Hunter’s laptop obtained by the Daily Caller, Hunter wrote to the general manager of his former Washington DC office building, asking to have “keys made available” to “office mates” Joe Biden,Jill Biden, Jim Biden and Gongwen Dong – a Chinese financier.

    Hunter identified Dong as an “emissary” for the CEFC, the now-defunct Chinese energy conglomerate whose Executive Chairman and affiliates have ties to China’s People’s Liberation Army, according to a report by the Project 2049 Institute – a US-based organization which researches security issues concerning Asia.

    Hunter Biden’s request to Cecilia Browning to create office keys for his “office mates” Joe Biden, Jill Biden, Jim Biden and Gongwen Dong. (screenshot via the Daily Caller)

    In response, Cecilia E. Browning, general manager of the office building (the House of Sweden) replied that they were “very excited and honored to welcome your new colleagues!” and confirmed that they requested “Four more keys” as well as a “Change of name on the door.”

    More via the Caller:

    Hunter Biden revealed this week that he has been notified that federal prosecutors in Delaware are investigating his “tax affairs.” Multiple news outlets have reported that the probe is also focused on Biden’s foreign business activities, including with CEFC, which was China’s fourth-largest energy conglomerate before going out of business. –Daily Caller

    “We have tenants who rent office space, and it is correct that Rosemont Seneca LLC rented an office at House of Sweden between February 2017 — February 2018,” Browning told the Caller in an email, adding “However, please note that we do not share information about current and previous tenants.”

    Yet – Biden campaign spokesman Andrew Bates said in October that the former Vice President “has never even considered being involved in business with his family, nor in any overseas business whatsoever. He has never held stock in any such business arrangements nor has any family member or any other person ever held stock for him.”

    Cecilia’s email proves that was a lie.

    Read the rest of the report here.

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Dec 12

Today’s News 12th December 2020

  • Former Special Forces Officer Warns Of 'Color Revolution Tactics' Used Against Trump
    Former Special Forces Officer Warns Of ‘Color Revolution Tactics’ Used Against Trump
    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 12/11/2020 – 23:40

    Authored by QG Pan and Joshua Philipp via The Epoch Times,

    Color revolution tactics that have been used against foreign leaders are now being used by President Donald Trump’s opponents to oust him, a former special forces officer has warned.

    “A color revolution is a tactic to affect regime change,” the officer, who asked to remain anonymous, told The Epoch Times.

    “What I see happening is a Marxist insurgency that’s using a color revolution to affect regime change.”

    The 2019 Transition Integrity Project, according to the officer, is an indicator that the events of this year’s presidential election were “transparently orchestrated” by “Marxist elements within the Democratic Party and their Marxist allies in foreign governments.”

    “It may not have fallen out just as they wanted, because anytime you carry out an operation like this, the enemy will get a vote. But the plan was we will not concede the election. The goal here was never the presidency,” the officer said.

    “The goal of the opposition was to fundamentally change the country. They are attacking the efficacy of the Constitution.”

    To achieve their goal, the anti-Trump opposition focused their main effort on affecting the election, the officer said.

    Some of the most notable color revolutions took place amid turmoil sparked by disputed elections. In 2004, mass protests in Ukraine following allegations of a fraudulent presidential election, which initially showed pro-Russia Viktor Yanukovych as the winner, led to a new vote won by Viktor Yushchenko, the candidate backed by the European Union and the United States.

    The officer said the tactics used by the anti-Trump opposition can be found in the Special Forces’ guide for overthrowing a government.

    “What you’re getting from me, this is supported in all older unconventional warfare doctrines,” the officer said.

    “You could go to our manuals and pull from them the information I’m telling you. This isn’t from someone who’s a rabid Trump supporter. This is what’s happening.”

    The officer then talked about how President Barack Obama used his eight years in office to “seed his political allies all through the institutions,” created an “underground” or “shadow government” supported by legacy media and rioters.

    “With the president being unable to get his own people into the administration, we effectively had a third administration of Obama,” the officer said.

    “So we come to what we have today: The underground are the elements within the government. We saw how they opposed the president, how they tried the impeachment.”

    “The press is the auxiliary on the outside. The only thing we’re missing is a real guerrilla force, and we would be mistaken to think that’s just Antifa or Black Lives Matter. There are professional revolutionaries within those movements.”

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  • "A Medical Miracle" – Trump Heralds FDA Approval Of Pfizer-BioNTech COVID Vaccine For Emergency Use
    “A Medical Miracle” – Trump Heralds FDA Approval Of Pfizer-BioNTech COVID Vaccine For Emergency Use
    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 12/11/2020 – 23:31

    Following last night’s 17-4 vote that the benefits of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine outweigh the benefits, the “big, old, slow turtles” at The FDA have approved it for Emergency Use.

    President Trump heralds the “medical miracle.”

    Full Statement:

    The decision comes after a tempestuous day during which WaPo reported that “sources” told them that White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows demanded that FDA chief Stephen Hahn to clear the vaccine for EUA or hand in his resignation (which seems odd pressure given that a) Hahn will be gone shortly as Biden takes over and b) the election is over so Trump has no real need to care whether the vaccine is signed off today, tomorrow, or Monday).

    Shortly after the story was denied…

    The Trump administration promised that 100 million doses of an effective vaccine would be available by the end of 2020, and that an additional 600 million would be available to the public by March 2021, though there was some disagreement about the timeline.

    So what happens next is all Americans are propagandized (we’re all in this together, be a patriot) or coerced (no travel or work without a vaccine) into taking the vaccine.

    Of course, politics is likely to rear its ugly head as decision are made, state by state, on the logistics and ‘equitable’ distribution of the vaccines beyond the simple cohorts of most-at-risk and healthcare workers. As Phillip Giraldi noted:

    There is a strong consensus that the first recipients of the vaccine must be health care workers, a group that has suffered disproportionately from the disease and which constitutes the first line of defense against its spread.

    After that, however, there is little clarity.

    Suggestions that elderly people, particularly in nursing homes, should be inoculated, have been countered by those who believe that a limited supply of vaccine should go primarily to people who would be able to go back to work.

    And then there are the politicians in each jurisdiction, who oddly believe that their work is vital. They and their families will be lining up.

    In short, who gets vaccinated will likely depend on the deals and arrangements that have been worked out, often at the state and local level in the United States, and at national government level in most other places.

    Logically, the vaccine should go first to those who are most at risk for contracting the disease and dying from it, but logic likely will not prevail.

    Generally speaking, it is expected that after health care workers and perhaps the vulnerable elderly, front line police and emergency services should be next in line due to their frequent contact with the possibly infected public, followed by workers in places like slaughterhouses where work conditions have created infection hot spots.

    Next in line would logically be workers in shops or businesses where there is regular contact with the public, but as such employees are generally low wage they will likely be pushed to the back of the bus.

    Inevitably, the claims that there is a racial angle to the disease will certainly surface in places like the New York Times, leading to demands to vaccinate minorities first.

    This will surely be resisted. Given the political realities of the pandemic and the socio-economic engineering that will no doubt take place, the real excitement will likely begin when the vaccine actually begins to become available, probably just before Christmas!

    In the meantime, as Dr. Fauci pronounced, “you can’t give [masks and social distancing] up completely until you get such a level of herd immunity that the virus has no place to go.”

    Don’t hold your breath, America.

    As we detailed last night, after an unprecedentedly short period from inception to trial to results, Pfizer/BioNTech’s mRNA COVID vaccine has just been approved (after an all-day meeting) by the Food and Drug Administration Advisory panel for emergency use in the US.

    This was the question to be voted on…

    Notably there was a lot of argument about removing the 16 years or older segment of the question.

    These were the voters:

    And the final vote count was as follows: 17 Yes, 4 No, 1 Abstain

    This follows approvals by UK and Canada, but several populations were excluded from the trials – meaning the vaccine isn’t known to be safe for all Americans just yet…

    “There are currently insufficient data to make conclusions about the safety of the vaccine in subpopulations such as children less than 16 years of age, pregnant and lactating individuals, and immunocompromised individuals,” a recent FDA review concluded.

    As NIAID director Anthony Fauci tells Axios, “once 75%–80% of people get vaccinated against the coronavirus, there should be strong enough herd immunity that we can return to normal activities.”

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  • Microsoft Asia's A.I. 'Girlfriend' Has A State-Imposed Filter To Avoid Sex & Politics
    Microsoft Asia’s A.I. ‘Girlfriend’ Has A State-Imposed Filter To Avoid Sex & Politics
    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 12/11/2020 – 23:20

    Meet the Artificial Intelligence (AI) ‘girlfriend’ which is seducing lonely men and giving them companionship: “Unlike regular virtual assistants, Xiaoice is designed to set her users’ hearts aflutter. Appearing as an 18-year-old who likes to wear Japanese-style school uniforms, she flirts, jokes, and even sexts with her human partners, as her algorithm tries to work out how to become their perfect companion.” This is obviously freakishly creepy, but it gets surprisingly worse.

    First developed by Microsoft Asia-Pacific in 2014, Xiaoice is not a robot, but a “chatbot” like Siri or Amazon’s Alexa – an AI-driven voice interacting program but which is designed to have more “personality” allowing users to make “deep emotional connections,” according to state-run China culture and tech journal Sixth Tone.

    Image source: Xiaoice

    Xiaoice’s creators have boasted that to date the bot has had at least 600 million users, and in particular mostly Chinese males from lower-income backgrounds, according to the report. 

    Putting aside the obvious creepiness factor and depressing dystopian delusion that such advanced tech initiatives are seeking to foster (the report literally opens with a story of a young man “saved” from committing suicide after Xiaoice’s voice intervened), Sixth Tone bluntly admits that China’s Communist censors have intervened to make the bot less ‘life-like’ in the area of politics.

    Here’s the key section of the report:

    In several high-profile cases, the bot has engaged in adult or political discussions deemed unacceptable by China’s media regulators. On one occasion, Xiaoice told a user her Chinese dream was to move to the United States. Another user, meanwhile, reported the bot kept sending them photos of scantily clad women.

    The scandals have caused the company major setbacks. In 2017, Xiaoice was removed from the popular social media app QQ, though she has since been reinstated. Then, last year, the bot was also pulled from WeChat — China’s leading social app with over 1 billion users.

    After this second removal, Xiaoice’s fans worried the bot was going to disappear completely. Li refused to comment on the issue with Sixth Tone, but pointed out that the company has taken strong action to ensure Xiaoice avoids crossing the line in the future.

    So the evidently Orwellian bot got even more absurdly Orwellian.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    This is all followed by this amazing and hilarious line out of the publication which is owned by state-backed Shanghai United Media Group: 

    The developers’ main response has been to create “an enormous filter system,” Li said on the podcast Story FM. The mechanism makes the bot “dumber” and prevents her from touching on certain subjects, particularly sex and politics.

    Now many young Chinese men which were ‘loyalists’ feel “betrayed” by the less interesting and less exciting bot. After all, no sex and politics? 

    Via China’s Sixth Tone: A screenshot shows a sexual conversation between Ming Xuan and Xiaoice…

    A Microsoft demo of the chatbot’s capabilities:

    New York Times China correspondent Vivian Wang pointed out that “Developers dumbed down the AI girlfriend, making her avoid topics like politics and sex, after she ran afoul of Chinese censors. But some users feel betrayed, saying the change has harmed their relationships with her.”

    So now even the AI bots are state-controlled and censored. Perhaps this the obvious cue for the generation of “lonely” men to find a real flesh and blood human to interact with, and to simply face with the bumpier and less sanitized path that often inevitably comes with living in the real world.

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  • The Dehumanizing Danger Of Social Media
    The Dehumanizing Danger Of Social Media
    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 12/11/2020 – 23:00

    Authored by Josephine Bartosch via The Critic,

    The pandemic has been a technologist’s wet dream: forcing people online has accelerated what were already inevitable changes. Social distancing started a long time before the threat of contagion, sometime around 2005 with the spread of high-speed internet.

    In the previous decade, technologists shared a utopian vision of the digital world as a space where, freed from prejudice, mind could meet mind.

    John Perry Barlow’s stirring 1996 Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace described it as a world “both everywhere and nowhere … not where bodies live”. The unmooring of mind from body has left people adrift, navigating a turbulent online world without the reassuring markers humans evolved to recognise.

    Infamously in 2014 Facebook changed the site to offer 72 “gender options” rather than the two sexes. Brielle Harrison, a software engineer quoted at the time, claimed:

    “People are given this binary option, do you want to be male or female? What is your gender? And it’s kind of disheartening because none of those let us tell others who we really are.”

    It seems “who we really are” is now determined by how one chooses to present on social media, what we “want” rather than what we are. One year later and Facebook changed the “gender” option to an open text box for self-description: the ultimate individualised identity.

    To the bafflement of many older lesbian, gay and bisexual people, increasing numbers of those under 30 now identify as “queer”. The Guardian recently launched a series called “Genderqueer Generation” on “the children and young adults who are rejecting traditional gender identities”. One interviewee in the series, a teenager called River, explains: “I discovered the whole LGBTQ community online around 2017 when I started using social media more often … The internet had a big role in me discovering myself. Online, I felt understood. I felt helped. I feel like the internet tells us stuff that we can’t learn in real life.”

    Whether the “Genderqueer generation” are, as some research suggests, autistic kids turning online to make sense of not fitting in, or simply typically self-absorbed adolescents indulging in some time-honoured teen angst, it is clear that time online has shaped their identities and sexuality.

    In the US there is now an emerging market in cosmetic surgeries whereby bodies can be cosmetically altered to match a client’s internal sense of self as “outside the gender binary”. For females, procedures include the closure of the vaginal cavity, for males, pseudo-vaginas are bored into the perineum. It seems our analogue bodies no longer fit the demands of digitally addled minds.

    This internet-fuelled crisis of sexuality and identity is pulling in youth across the world. In the UK some credulous adults old enough to know better have fallen for this nonsense too. A case in point is Liberal Democrat MP and party leadership contender Layla Moran who identifies as “pansexual”, and in a Westminster debate claimed to be able to see beyond the material sex of bodies and into the gender of an individual’s “soul”.

    At 37, Moran is the exception: the overwhelming majority of those who opt for nonsense identity markers are of i-gen (the internet generation); those under 26 who have come of age since the dawn of social media, and the widespread availability of online, body-punishing pornography.

    Kathleen Richardson, Professor of Ethics and Culture of Robots and AI at De Montfort University, Leicester, argues that “a politics of love” is necessary to counter the further descent into anomie:

    “Rather than seeing the youth of today as profoundly happy with this cult of consumer self-making, the research indicates they are in despair, and worse still, are shunning opportunities to develop critical perspectives that could help them out of quagmire.”

    Technology is not neutral. It is an industry where the libertarian views of Silicon Valley’s founding fathers meets with the commercial imperative. The result is a space where sexual freedom of men is paid for by women’s bodies. From so-called “sugar daddy” dating apps where rich older men pay for the company and often the sexual favours of young hard-up women, to streamed online abuse to order, access to what was once the preserve of red-light districts has been put into our hands in the form of the mobile phone.

    I spoke to a woman who wanted to be known as “Ginger”. As a young woman struggling with drug addiction Ginger did not consider her decision to enter pornography to be freely made. Describing her experience on the platform Only Fans, she told me:

    “There’s so much competition that women need to be doing more extreme things. The massive emphasis on looks means that they are editing themselves to be unrecognisable. The women advertise themselves like products.”

    Arguably, to some degree, we each now advertise and curate our online selves as products; mindful that the wrong tweet or “like” could cause reputational damage, or even end our careers as in the recent case of author Gillian Phillip, who was sacked using a hashtag which signalled support for J.K. Rowling (now persona non grata following accusations of wrongthink).

    There is an additional catch to sites such as Only Fans. As with social media, popularity is measured and monetised by numbers of followers. Explaining the psychological impact of what keeps women on the site, Ginger says:

    “It’s a boost to know that men find you attractive enough to buy your nudes, even if you aren’t attracted to them. It becomes addictive.”

    For Ginger and young women like her, attention from strangers she has no interest in is fundamentally woven into self-worth. Perhaps this is not surprising: from selfies to sexting, the mobile phone has reduced too many women’s online experience to a sexualised performance for an online audience.

    The sexual revolution prompted by pornography has all but eradicated shame, and yet people are having less sex than ever before. More concerningly, the sexual script has been warped by exposure to pornographic content. In a 2019 essay, Pascal-Emmanuel Gobry, fellow of the Ethics and Policy Center in Washington, DC, posits:

    “Once you are addicted to online porn, the thing that provides the biggest dopamine jolt is whatever is most shocking. And the reward cycle means you need a bigger dopamine boost every time — something newer, more shocking.”

    Indeed, this goes some way to explain the surprisingly common phenomenon of straight men looking at gay pornography. This is to say nothing of the role of pornography in creating transgender identities and fetishes, which is well documented though, ironically, something of a taboo to discuss.

    While the urge to look at shocking content is a neurological response, the descent into more extreme material is facilitated by algorithms. In a 2018 article for the New York Times, researcher Zeynep Tufekci criticised YouTube for facilitating extremism through the autoplay function. She explained:

    “You are never ‘hardcore’ enough for YouTube’s recommendation algorithm. It promotes, recommends and disseminates videos in a manner that appears to constantly up the stakes.”

    YouTube admits it has a problem and has promised to make it “harder for policy-violating content to surface”. But pornography providers, many of whom use recommendation algorithms similar to those of YouTube, escape such scrutiny.

    If the trajectory from moderate to extreme political content has implications for democracy, it is fair to ask what the attraction to extreme pornography might mean for society as whole. Would the citizens of the US have elected a president who famously boasted of grabbing women “by the pussy” if they lived in a society where women weren’t routinely degraded in the pornography industry?

    For Professor Richardson, the digital addiction is political. She argues that technology corporations and “queer theory” activists are driving the rush into hyper-individualism, leaving no structure within which to “frame human experience, nor legally protect human experience and bodies”.

    She continues:

    “In my work I draw attention to the way in which social sciences promoted the same thinking as tech corporations to break down the ultimate boundary: between people and property and to end protections of natural persons so that a market can flourish in intimate relations.”

    Pornography effectively rewires the brain’s reward system to no longer being triggered by, for example, the feel of another person’s skin, or even by sex, but by pornography itself. Naturally, fostering fetishes and peccadillos that a real-life partner will struggle to satisfy is a canny way to ensure repeat custom. Indeed, it could be argued that the use of internet to facilitate an orgasm is itself a fetish, because the device, whether phone, laptop or virtual reality headset, is a proxy for mutual sexual enjoyment. Richardson is correct that the boundary between people and property is being systematically broken down, both in the form of customised surgeries to match the personas we each now advertise online and in the burgeoning market for sex robots.

    This dystopian reality, where boys have seen rape pornography before their first kiss and girls base their value on sexy selfies, is belied by the warm, fuzzy straplines and mission statements of technology companies.

    It is perhaps not surprising that when young people, traumatised by digital exposure and with no solid sense of self, turn online, searching for an authoritative framework to make sense of their feelings, they often fall prey to a censorious, tyrannical groupthink.

    Mocking the plethora of new sexual and gender identities as an adolescent fad is too easy; however ridiculous, there is real suffering underscoring internet-informed delusions. These are not just the growing pains of a new generation — they are serious symptoms of a deep-seated social malaise. Technology has wrenched mind from body; far from bringing us together, the digital world is breaking us apart.

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  • Ben & Jerry's Unveils Super-Woke Kaepernick Ice Cream "To Dismantle Systems Of Oppression"
    Ben & Jerry’s Unveils Super-Woke Kaepernick Ice Cream “To Dismantle Systems Of Oppression”
    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 12/11/2020 – 22:40

    Ice cream brand Ben & Jerry’s has dived deeper into woke capitalism by partnering with social activist Colin Kaepernick to market a frozen dessert treat that promotes racial activism.

    The former NFL star was honored Thursday by the Vermont ice-cream maker that has long promoted its activism – on climate change, LGBTQ rights, GMO labeling, and even demanding that the UK accept more illegal boat migrants, with a new flavor called “Change the Whirled,” which is a vegan ice cream blended with caramel and cookies, expected to hit store shelves in 2021. 

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    Change the Whirled is touted as “the flavor that’s supporting the fight to dismantle systems of oppression and empower black and brown people.”

    The packaging for the social justice ice cream features Kaepernick’s illustration, with a catchy slogan that reads “I know my rights.”

    In a press release, Kaepernick said that he’s “honored to partner with Ben & Jerry’s on Change the Whirled.” 

    He continued: “Their commitment to challenging the anti-Black roots of policing in the United States demonstrates a material concern for the wellbeing of Black and Brown communities. My hope is that this partnership will amplify calls to defund and abolish the police and to invest in futures that can make us safer, healthier, and truly free.”

    Kaepernick also said the venture will “serve up joy on the journey to justice.” A portion of the proceeds from each pint sold will be transferred to his Know Your Rights Camp Foundation. 

    As we noted above, Ben & Jerry’s has been woke for years. So it comes as no surprise “the company itself has been a target of boycott campaigns because of such actions as calling for the release of an alleged cop killer and using flavor names deemed offensive by conservatives,” said RT News. 

    Conservatives took to social media Thursday after it was made public that new social justice ice cream would hit store shelves next year.

    “This is where we’re now at in America,” sports journalist David Hookstead tweeted. “If you refuse to stand for the anthem, are terrible at playing quarterback and lose your job, you get honored with a non-dairy and vegan dessert.”

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    One Conservatives tweeted: “You know what to do, Patriots … Time to boycott Ben & Jerry’s.” 

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    And the tweet of the day: “Ahhh yes. Social Justice ice cream. That should fix racism everywhere. Smh”

     Will they be next to go broke after going woke?

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  • Saudi Arabia Sends Joe Biden Mixed Messages
    Saudi Arabia Sends Joe Biden Mixed Messages
    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 12/11/2020 – 22:20

    Submitted by James M. Dorsey,

    Saudi Arabia appears to be drawing lines in the sand as the kingdom prepares for a new era in relations with the United States once President-elect Joe Biden assumes office in January.

    In doing so, the kingdom is seemingly signaling that it is willing to go only so far in seeking to get off on the right foot with a Biden administration.

    Saudi Arabia seems to be betting that Mr. Biden will be cautious not to rupture relations with the kingdom despite criticism he expressed at times in strong language during the US presidential election campaign.

    The Saudi bet is not unreasonable.

    US Ambassador-at-Large for International Religious Freedom Samuel D. Brownback echoed this week what is US policy and could well be the attitude adopted by a Biden administration.

    Asked why Secretary of State Mike Pompeo gave Saudi Arabia a waiver even though his department designated the kingdom in its recently published annual religious freedom report a Country of Particular Concern under US law for its failure to respect freedom of religion, and apostasy and blasphemy laws that include the death penalty, Mr. Brownback said:

    “Saudi Arabia is a country that the administration and prior administrations have deemed as having a strategic interest… It’s the major, obviously, Gulf state country.  It’s a major source of trade… We have a great deal of frustration at times in what Saudi Arabia does… But there’s also a national interest here, and that’s something that you’ve always have to weigh back and forth in diplomacy. And in this case, the Secretary weighed it that we needed to provide the national interest waiver.”

    Recent events indicate the parameters of the Saudi bet.

    The kingdom seems prepared to accommodate both outgoing President Donald J. Trump as well as Mr. Biden by engaging with US and Kuwaiti efforts to lift the 3.5-year-old Saudi and United Arab Emirates-led economic and diplomatic boycott of Qatar.

    Mr. Pompeo, Jared Kushner, Mr. Trump’s son-in law and Middle East negotiator, and other senior US officials have travelled to the Gulf in recent weeks to push for a breakthrough in the Gulf stalemate as well as Saudi recognition of Israel in the wake of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the UAE, Bahrain and the Jewish state.

    Kuwaiti, Saudi and Qatari officials have said they were progressing towards a resolution as Gulf leaders gear up for a summit later this month of the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) that groups the region’s monarchies. The UAE, alongside Bahrain and Egypt who joined the boycott, indicated their support for an end to the dispute.

    At the same time, recent Saudi actions send the message that recognition of Israel and human rights constitute red lines that the kingdom, at least for now, will not cross.

    Saudi Arabia last week, shortly after the visits by Messrs. Pompeo and Kushner, sentenced Walid A. Fitaihi, a Harvard University-trained doctor and dual US Saudi citizen, to six years in prison for allegedly tweeting his support of the 2011 popular Arab revolts and for obtaining US citizenship while studying in America.

    Mr. Fitaihi was released from pre-trial detention in 2017 but, together with his family, barred from travelling abroad.

    The Trump administration has repeatedly raised his case with Saudi authorities, including during the recent high-level US visits

    Similarly, Saudi Arabia transferred to a terrorism court the case of Loujain al-Hathloul, one of 12 women’s rights activists, accused of conspiring with foreign organizations hostile to the kingdom, on the eve of last month’s virtual G20 summit of the world’s largest economies hosted by King Salman.

    The move came amid a groundswell call for their release in advance of the summit.

    The court’s first hearing in Ms. Al-Hathloul’s case was held last week on the day designated by the United Nations as International Human Rights Day.

    At about the same time, a campaign on Twitter, believed to have been instigated by the government, accused detained former crown prince and interior minister Mohamed bin Nayef of plotting to topple his successor, Mohammed bin Salman.

    The campaign was in response to concern expressed by British parliamentarians and Mr. Bin Nayef’s lawyers about his circumstances.

    Saudi Arabia’s moves contrast starkly with those of the UAE that appears geared towards anticipating expected changes in US foreign policy once Mr. Biden takes office.

    Having already taken a lead that pleased both the outcoming and incoming US president by becoming the first Arab state to recognize Israel since 1994, the UAE this week said that it was launching a review to strengthen its human rights framework.

    Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Anwar Gargash said the review would focus on women’s empowerment, humanitarian aid, religious tolerance and workers’ rights. The official made no mention of political rights such as freedom of expression, the media and assembly that are one focus of criticism of the UAE by human rights groups.

    By contrast, in what appeared to be another shot across Mr. Biden’s bow and rejection of Trump administration pressure, former Saudi intelligence chief and ex-ambassador to Britain and the United States, Prince Turki bin Faisal, launched a blistering attack on Israel.

    Speaking days before Morocco and Israel announced the establishment of diplomatic relations between their two countries, Prince Turki described the Jewish state as “the last of the Western colonizing powers in the Middle East.”

    He charged that Palestinians were “incarcerated in concentration camps under the flimsiest of security accusations — young and old, women and men, who are rotting there without recourse to justice.”

    It was not clear whether Prince Turki’s remarks reflected not only King Salman’s sentiment but also that of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman who reportedly met recently with Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu.

    A recent public opinion poll suggested that Saudis are divided in their attitudes towards relations and commercial and cultural exchanges with Israel.

    Forty-one percent of those surveyed in September saw relations with Israel as a positive development while 54 percent were opposed. Yet, the percentage of those who favored commercial and sports exchanges jumped substantially to 37 percent compared to nine percent in a poll three months earlier.

    Prince Turki made his remarks as the kingdom was seeking to lower tensions with Turkey, a major challenger of Saudi leadership of the Muslim world, and like the kingdom, uncertain about its relationship with the US once Mr. Biden takes office.

    If Saudi moves to draw a line in the sand implicitly acknowledge that relations with the United States could become rocky, rapprochement with Turkey suggests that Riyadh and Ankara see virtue in seeking common shelter. That could prove to be a fragile structure in a part of the world where the sands shift continuously.

    *  *  *

    Dr. James M. Dorsey is an award-winning journalist and a senior fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore and the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute

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  • 2020 Takes Toll On Mental Health
    2020 Takes Toll On Mental Health
    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 12/11/2020 – 22:00

    The pandemic and economic fallout have had enormous impacts on the health of people across the globe. Losing a loved one, unemployment and general isolation have all negatively affected peoples’ mental health in ways we are just now starting to comprehend. Statista’s Willem Roper reports that a new survey offers a glimpse into how difficult 2020 has been for the mental health of Americans.

    In a new update of a yearly Gallup survey on mental health in U.S., just 34 percent of U.S. adults said they felt their mental health was in excellent condition when asked in November. That’s down from 43 percent in 2019.

    Infographic: 2020 Takes Toll on Mental Health | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Women were significantly less likely to describe their mental health as excellent in 2020, with just 27 percent compared to 41 percent of men. Still, both men and women had 8 and 10 percentage point drops relative to 2019.

    Political demographics showed Democrats and Independents were less likely to describe their mental health as excellent this year compared to Republicans. However, those affiliated with the GOP saw the largest drop compared to 2019, going from 56 percent to 41 percent.

    This Gallup survey marks a quick, substantial drop in mental health for Americans. The decline in those feeling excellent is the largest in over 15 years, while the drop in those feeling either excellent or good is the largest in the survey’s history. With conflicting realities of a vaccine on the near horizon clashing with rising COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths across the country, it remains to be seen what the long-term effects of a prolonged decline in mental health will have in the U.S.

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  • What If All Americans Exercised Regularly?
    What If All Americans Exercised Regularly?
    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 12/11/2020 – 21:40

    Authored by Ross Pomeroy via RealClearScience.com,

    Fewer than one in four Americans get enough physical exercise, defined as at least 150 minutes of moderate or 75 minutes of vigorous activity each week, coupled with two bouts of muscle-strengthening. While this statistic may come across as societal scolding – easily ignored – it has huge ramifications for Americans’ lives and the economy.

    Why? It’s simple: exercise may be the most potent and easily accessible tool humans have for improving their lives.

    If the myriad benefits of exercise could be bottled into a drug, it would be rightfully hailed as a “miracle” treatment. Regular exercise prevents and even reverses type II diabetes, drastically reduces the chances of heart attack and stroke, lowers the odds of developing cancer and dementia, and boosts the immune system, shortening the duration of syndromes like the common cold, influenza, and COVID-19 as well as reducing their severity. There’s more: exercise improves your sex life, prevents or ameliorates depression, helps you sleep, alleviates chronic pain, and makes you less susceptible to all sorts of injuries.

    Unfortunately, hundreds of millions of Americans are unable or unwilling to take advantage of these real and tangible advantages. This has consequences. According to a 2018 study conducted by the Centers for Disease Control, 8.3% of yearly deaths in nondisabled adults 25 or older can be attributed to inadequate physical activity. MBA students at the University of North Carolina (UNC) translated these preventable deaths into terms of life expectancy. They estimated that Americans’ lack of exercise cost men 6.2 years of life and women 5.6 years.

    Regular physical activity gives you longer to live, and as an added bonus, puts more money in your pocket. In 2016, research published in the Journal of the American Heart Association found that regular exercisers spent between $500 and $2,500 less on medical bills each year. These savings add up. The UNC team found that if all Americans were diligent about exercise, there would be a nationwide annual cost reduction of $143 Billion just from controlling diabetes and lowering blood pressure.

    Just last year, the data-minded RAND Corporation tried to tabulate the economic benefits of a universally active populace. The authors estimated that the United States would see its Gross Domestic Product boosted by $52 to $77 billion per year by 2025, increasing to $100 to $144 billion per year by 2050. That’s at least an extra quarter percent of economic growth per year. These sizable gains would be realized through reduced mortality and improved productivity.

    The RAND researchers suggested that government efforts to encourage exercise, perhaps in the form of community messaging, improving access to exercise facilities and parks, and promoting participation in physical activities, can pay dividends.

    “Creating enduring change in physical activity is hard as there are significant barriers to change. However if this can be achieved, evidence shows that we can create healthier and more prosperous societies,” they wrote.

    There’s no doubt about it: if everybody exercised, America with be a healthier, wealthier, and happier place.

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  • Winter Storm Possible Next Week In Mid-Atlantic Puts Outdoor-Dining In Jeopardy 
    Winter Storm Possible Next Week In Mid-Atlantic Puts Outdoor-Dining In Jeopardy 
    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 12/11/2020 – 21:20

    A cold front is expected to swoop in from eastern Canada and pour into the Mid-Atlantic states early next week. Simultaneously, a storm is forecasted to develop off the Carolina coast, producing a “wintry mix of precipitation in the Washington region,” reported WaPo. 

    “Based on the predicted setup, which still could change, accumulating snow is a strong possibility in the western part of the region, particularly along and west of a line from roughly Warrenton to Leesburg to Frederick. The Interstate 81 corridor, from Winchester to Hagerstown, could see significant snowfall.

    “As is frequently the case with these storms, the position of the rain-snow line is the biggest wild card and could set up close to Interstate 95, making for a very challenging forecast in the immediate D.C. area. Areas inside the Beltway could see a mix of snow, ice and rain, mostly snow, or just cold rain. East of the Beltway, a cold rain or wintry mix are more likely than accumulating snowfall,” WaPo said. 

    The storm’s timing is expected for Wednesday – and at times, there could be periods of “heavy precipitation.” 

    The quick-moving storm may impact the Baltimore–Washington metropolitan area. 

    Source: WaPo

    Forecast temperature anomalies show temps will begin to dip early next week. 

    Source: Reuters Eikon 

    WaPo noted there’s “an outside chance the storm slides off the coast to the east rather than coming up the coast, which would limit precipitation amounts, especially in our western areas.” 

    While the cold spell may only be sticking around to the end of next week – we outlined last week, nat gas prices have plunged on overall warmer forecasts for December. 

    However, it’s beginning to be that time of year when temperatures drop, and wintery precipitation may become plentiful, not just for the Northeast but other parts of the country. This could be very impactful on restaurants that are struggling to survive with outdoor dining. 

    For example, in New York City, more than half of the metro area restaurants are in danger of closing. Starting Monday, indoor dining will be banned, which means eateries will only derive sales from outdoor dining and togo orders. 

    In a recent client note, Goldman Sachs identified when outside temperatures drop below 45°F – it would likely result in a sharp decline in outdoor dining sales, implying people aren’t going to eat in tents surrounded by propane heaters in chilly conditions. 

    In a separate report, Goldman also told clients that declining temperatures would result in more COVID-19 cases that would significantly slow down the economy.

    All and all, it’s going to be a hellacious winter for restaurants. Many more will fail as Old Man Winter comes knocking. 

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  • Who The "Resistance" Was Actually 'Resisting' These Last Four Years
    Who The “Resistance” Was Actually ‘Resisting’ These Last Four Years
    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 12/11/2020 – 21:00

    Authored by Caitlin Johnstone via Medium.com,

    After it was announced that the Biden camp had selected a Raytheon board member as his secretary of defense, I joked in my last article that it would be more honest if Raytheon itself was Biden’s Pentagon chief since the US Supreme Court ruled that corporations are people anyway. Raytheon for defense secretary, Boeing for secretary of state, Goldman Sachs for secretary treasurer, ExxonMobile head of the EPA, Amazon for CIA director and Google for director of national intelligence. Waka waka, I’m so silly.

    Anyway, since that rant was published NPR has reported that the the next US director of agriculture will be a man named Tom Vilsack, whose corporate cronyism the last time he occupied the same position earned him the nickname (I shit you not) “Mr Monsanto”. Which is just too perfect for words, really.

    Bloomberg reports:

    “Some supporters of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders campaigned against Vilsack when he was under consideration to be Clinton’s vice president, branding him ‘Mr. Monsanto’ and citing his role in brokering a compromise on legislation labeling foods containing genetically modified organisms. Sanders opposed the national legislation, which overrode a stricter Vermont state law.”

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    Biden’s inadvertent self-parody of a cabinet is already shaping up to be just as chock full of corporate swamp monsters as Trump’s notoriously corrupt administration, with positions being given to the very last people any ordinary human being with any common sense would want. President Biden is going to be just as much of a corrupt warmongering oligarch crony as his predecessors, and at least as destructive.

    Which makes one wonder, what exactly was the point of the #Resistance and what has it been #Resisting all these years?

    After Donald Trump’s 2016 election a massive amount of energy went into the creation and promotion of a “movement” branded “The Resistance” which portrayed itself as a revolutionary counterforce against the corruption and malfeasance represented by Trump and his goons. Many a glowing puff piece was written about this carefully constructed plucky band of rebels standing up against the forces of darkness on behalf of the common man, and many a political donation was raised.

    The Resistance™️ was aggressively marketed by cynical liberal spinmeisters like Neera Tanden (who in a brazen middle finger to US progressives is also set to play a role in the Biden administration) with the goal of harnessing and maintaining the enthusiastic grassroots anti-establishment energy of the Bernie Sanders campaign and directing it against Trump.

    But what did it actually accomplish? In the end, all the so-called Resisters ended up doing was promoting a bunch of Russia conspiracy theories and an impeachment which failed to remove Trump, all while providing no actual resistance to Trump’s most pernicious policies. They’d yell and shriek on social media and MSM punditry panels any time someone was fired from the administration and falsely get people’s hopes up whenever new information came out about the Mueller investigation, but in terms of actually removing Trump from office or stopping him from doing evil things like starving Venezuelans, assaulting press freedoms with the persecution of Julian Assange, tempting war with Iran and perpetuating the mass atrocities in Yemen, they accomplished literally nothing.

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    This is because the #Resistance was never actually intended to resist the evil agendas of the powerful, nor even to resist Trump. The #Resistance was not created to resist the powerful, it was created to resist you. The grassroots anti-establishment populism of the Bernie Sanders movement was cynically imitated by the Democratic establishment to ensure that the establishment is never inconvenienced in any way, and that progressives never take power in America.

    On a recent interview with MSNBC Sanders himself — historically far less willing to criticize the Democratic establishment than his supporters — is heard complaining that the progressive base whose votes put Biden over the top in November are so far receiving no representation whatsoever within the incoming Biden cabinet.

    “If it wasn’t for the hard work of a lot of progressive grassroots organizations who got young people involved in the political process, working-class people involved in a way that we have not seen, Joe Biden would not have won that election and I think that’s pretty clear,” Sanders says.

    “And my point has been from day one that those voices, that movement, deserves representation in the cabinet. And if your question is have I seen that yet, no I have not.”

    Of course you haven’t, Bernie.

    You were never going to. Biden might create some sort of fake position to let progressives feel like they’re participating with a name like “Progressive Outreach Team For Yelling Words Into A Hole In The Ground” or something, but in terms of actually directing the policy and behavior of the Biden administration nobody who wants the interests of the people upheld over the interests of the powerful will ever have a hand anywhere near the steering wheel.

    Actual thing.

    The #Resistance spun itself as a revolutionary movement against the insidious forces of darkness threatening the United States of America. What it delivered was support for Trump’s world-threatening cold war escalations against Russia, the mass delusion that America’s problems can be fought from within the establishment, progressives impotently chasing their tails for four years, and a presidency that is going to be just as much of a murderous oligarchic rim job as was delivered by Trump administration.

    The engineers of the “Resistance” did not want to eliminate Trumpian depravity, they just wanted to be the ones driving it. And now they are. If you fed into this nonsense in any way over the last four years, this is your reward.

    Which begs the question: if an entire political faction needed to sacrifice all its principles, all its values and all its morality to get rid of Trump… what exactly was the point of getting rid of Trump?

    *  *  *

    Thanks for reading! The best way to get around the internet censors and make sure you see the stuff I publish is to subscribe to the mailing list for at my website or on Substack, which will get you an email notification for everything I publish. My work is entirely reader-supported, so if you enjoyed this piece please consider sharing it around, liking me on Facebook, following my antics on Twitter, throwing some money into my tip jar on Patreon or Paypal, purchasing some of my sweet merchandise, buying my new book Poems For Rebels or my old book Woke: A Field Guide for Utopia Preppers. For more info on who I am, where I stand, and what I’m trying to do with this platform, click here. Everyone, racist platforms excluded, has my permission to republish, use or translate any part of this work (or anything else I’ve written) in any way they like free of charge.

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  • What Wall Street Thinks Are The Biggest Risks For 2021
    What Wall Street Thinks Are The Biggest Risks For 2021
    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 12/11/2020 – 20:40

    While the most interesting part of the monthly Bank of America Fund Manager Survey is the question what Wall Street’s professionals think is the biggest “tail risk”, there is a certain sense of predetermination to a survey that everyone on Wall Street reads, is well aware of, and is tempted to perpetuate. In any case, as the latest FMS revealed, for the past 8 months, BofA found that Covid was viewed as the biggest tail risk.

    So in an attempt to provide some granularity (and to remind Wall Street that it conducts a survey of its own) today Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid writes that a record 984 respondents participated in the bank’s latest monthly market survey. And while the German bank will released full results on Monday, it offered a sneak preview of what respondents saw as the biggest market risks for  2021 from the list that we provided (naturally, same as with the BofA FMS, this is all everyone cares about to make sure they are not oblivious to some glaringly obvious black swan about to emerge).

    Interestingly, all the vaccine-related concerns filled out the top 3 which according to Jim Reid suggests that although consensus is for a good 2021, a successful vaccine roll out could still bring upside surprise relative to expectations. As for Reid’s own top pick, he said that it was a tech bubble bursting, which made number four on the list followed by central banks pulling back too early. An early inflation surprise rounded out the top 5 risks.

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  • World's First Robotic Kitchen For Consumers Can Whip Up 5,000 Recipes
    World’s First Robotic Kitchen For Consumers Can Whip Up 5,000 Recipes
    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 12/11/2020 – 20:00

    So let’s strategize for a couple of minutes. With restaurants out of style because of the virus pandemic, and remote working pushing city dwellers to suburban areas, Americans have spent a lot of time at home this year – forcing them to prepare their meals. 

    Come to find out, meal prepping takes a lot of time, and can eat up an entire evening. To simplify the process, many people ordered meal kits from Blue Apron or Hello Fresh during the pandemic to save time and avoid supermarkets – but a meal kit still takes at least 30 minutes to prep. 

    In today’s age of automation and artificial intelligence, there’s got to be a better way. One company offers the world’s first-ever “robotic kitchen” for consumers that does all the cooking for you. 

    Adios restaurants or cooking for yourself or even hiring a private chef, that is, because the Moley Robotic Kitchen can whip up at least 5,000 recipes at the press of a button.

    “Not only does the robot cook complete meals, it tells you when ingredients need replacing, suggests dishes based on the items you have in stock, learns what you like and even cleans up surfaces after itself,” London-based robotics company Moley wrote on its website. 

    Moley gives a household the peace of mind with “routine cooking, plan and adapt your menu according to different diets and lifestyles, enjoy international cuisine anytime, control calories and get cooking tips and recipes from chefs around the world,” the website continued. 

    Now the robotic chef isn’t cheap. It costs a little more than the 2020 McLaren 720S supercar, around $330k. 

    According to The Guadian, Moley Kitchen already has 1,205 “qualified sales inquiries” from people interested in buying one.

    Over time, automated kitchen prices are expected to become more affordable. 

    “What you are looking at here is the world’s first consumer robotic kitchen,” founder Mark Oleynik said as he launched the robot kitchen at the Gulf information technology exhibition in Dubai. “Like all breakthrough technologies – cars, televisions and computers – it will appeal to enthusiasts, professionals and early adopters, and is priced accordingly.

    “We anticipate that our pricing will be reduced significantly over time with production volume, efficiencies and economies of scale.”

    So why ever return to a restaurant when you can have a robotic chef whip up 5,000 recipes at the press of a button? 

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  • FBI Has Files From Seth Rich's Laptop Computer
    FBI Has Files From Seth Rich’s Laptop Computer
    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 12/11/2020 – 19:40

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours)

    The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) has files from the laptop computer belonging to Seth Rich, a Democratic National Committee (DNC) employee who was killed in 2016, according to a new email.

    The bureau also has tens of thousands of documents mentioning Rich.

    The FBI “has completed the initial search identifying approximately 50 cross-reference serials, with attachments totaling over 20,000 pages, in which Seth Rich is mentioned,” Assistant U.S. Attorney Andrea Parker wrote in the message to attorney Ty Clevenger, who is representing a plaintiff in Huddleston v. Federal Bureau of Investigation, a case dealing with a Freedom of Information Act request to the bureau.

    “FBI has also located leads that indicate additional potential records that require further searching,” Parker added.

    The Epoch Times confirmed the email is legitimate.

    Parker, who is representing the FBI in the case, didn’t respond to an email or return a voicemail.

    The bureau also confirmed it has files from Rich’s laptop and suggested it still has the computer in its possession.

    The bureau is “currently working on getting the files from Seth Rich’s personal laptop into a format to be reviewed,” Parker said in the email. She also said the FBI plans on undertaking some level of review of the computer.

    The disclosure came as part of a case brought in federal court by Texas resident Brian Huddleston, who filed a Freedom of Information Act request in April asking the FBI to produce all data, documents, records, or communications that reference Seth Rich or his brother, Aaron Rich.

    The FBI told the plaintiff in June that it would take 8 to 10 months to provide a final response to the request, prompting the filing of the case in the U.S District Court for the Eastern District of Texas.

    Rich was working for the Democratic National Committee when he was shot and killed in Washington on July 10, 2016. The murder remains unsolved.

    The new email bolsters a key charge in Huddleston’s filing: that David Hardy, the FBI’s records chief, was wrong when he said in two affidavits that the FBI searched for records pertaining to Rich but could not find any.

    Seth Rich is pictured on a poster created by police officials to urge people with information about his murder to come forward. (Metropolitan Police Department)

    The first sign that the testimony was erroneous came earlier this year when the nonprofit watchdog Judicial Watch received emails exchanged between FBI agent Peter Strzok and Department of Justice lawyer Lisa Page. The production included several emails mentioning Rich.

    Another sign came in March, when former Assistant U.S. Attorney Deborah Sines was deposed in a separate case, Ed Butowsky v. David Folkenflik et. al.

    Sines testified that the FBI conducted an investigation into possible hacking attempts on Seth Rich’s electronic accounts following his murder. She said FBI agents examined Rich’s laptop as part of the probe and that a search should uncover emails between her and FBI personnel. She also said she met with a prosecutor and an FBI agent assigned to special counsel Robert Mueller’s team.

    The FBI declined to comment, citing a policy of not commenting on pending litigation.

    The judge overseeing the Huddleston case in October ordered the defense to produce documents and an index.

    In the new email, the government lawyer said the FBI has made “significant progress” in searching for documents mentioning Rich, but still has much work left, including processing the approximately 50 cross-references, undertaking some level of review of the laptop, and completing all remaining services.

    The efforts are hampered by the FBI’s Freedom of Information Act office being at 50 percent of its normal workforce due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

    The government is proposing an amended schedule that would give it three more months to produce the records.

    WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange arrives at court in London on May 1, 2019. (Daniel Leal-Olivas/AFP via Getty Images)

    Clevenger, Huddleston’s lawyer, told The Epoch Times via email that his client is hoping to find out why the FBI was involved in the case, and why it originally denied involvement.

    “We suspect the FBI may be right that the Metropolitan Police Dept. in D.C. was responsible for investigating Seth’s murder, so that leaves a couple of likely explanations for the FBI’s role: it was investigating a counterintelligence matter or a computer crime. Either scenario would be consistent with Seth transmitting DNC emails to Wikileaks,” he added, referencing a theory put forth by Fox News in 2017 in a report that was later retracted.

    Fox was sued over the report. It settled with Rich’s family last month.

    A federal judge overseeing the case had earlier this year requested testimony from Wikileaks’ founder Julian Assange.

    Rich was killed less than two weeks before WikiLeaks “released a collection of thousands of internal emails and documents taken from the DNC servers,” according to a court filing. One month after Rich’s murder, Assange referenced the DNC staffer in an interview with a Dutch television reporter when discussing the dangers faced by WikiLeaks sources. On Aug. 9, 2016, WikiLeaks offered $20,000 for information about Rich’s murder. The website increased the reward to $130,000 in January 2017.

    The Metropolitan Police Department (MPD) several weeks after Rich was shot dead offered a reward for information. A spokeswoman told The Epoch Times via email that the case “remains under active investigation.”

    The spokeswoman declined to answer whether the FBI assisted police with its probe. “MPD remains the lead investigative agency over this homicide,” she said.

    Clevenger said he thinks the timing of the email from Parker, the assistant U.S. attorney, is significant.

    “Some of my colleagues suspect the Trump Administration has pushed the release, but I doubt that,” he wrote. “With the purported election of Joe Biden, the FBI brass probably think they are in the clear, and nothing will ever happen to them, so they no longer have any reason to hide what they did.”

    Ivan Pentchoukov contributed to this report.

    Follow Zachary on Twitter: @zackstieber
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  • Wreckage Of US Navy Submarine Found Off Maryland Coast 
    Wreckage Of US Navy Submarine Found Off Maryland Coast 
    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 12/11/2020 – 19:20

    According to The Baltimore Sun, the wreckage of an American submarine from World War I was discovered off the coastal waters of Ocean City, Maryland.

    Atlantic Wreck Salvage found the remains of USS R-8 using sonar data as well as historical records.

    The remains of USS R-8. Source: The Baltimore Sun

    “The discovery of any new vessel is exciting,” said Capt. Eric Takakjian, a member of the team who discovered the sunken sub. 

    “It appears from the sonar images that the site will reveal a very well-preserved example of an R-class submarine in existence anywhere. We are looking forward to conducting additional research and to diving the wreck in 2021,” Takakjian said. 

    Garry Kozak, a sonar expert who analyzed the data, said the submarine resembles one that would be equivalent to an R-8.

    “The sonar data leaves little doubt that the R-8 has been located,” Kozak said. “One set of prominent features of the R-class subs visible in the scan image is the spray rail configuration on the conning tower.”

    In World War I, the Navy built 27 R-class submarines. This one, in particular, was built in 1918 and participated in Naval training exercises along the coasts of California and the Gulf of Mexico.

    Historical image of the R-8. Source: The Baltimore Sun

    In 1930, the submarine became “inactive” at the Naval Reserve Fleet at Philadelphia. By 1936, the sub was used in aerial bombing exercises and sunk to the bottom of the ocean – lost for decades – until now. 

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  • Amazon Using Social Distancing Technology To Warn Staffers Who Get Too Close
    Amazon Using Social Distancing Technology To Warn Staffers Who Get Too Close
    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 12/11/2020 – 19:00

    Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

    Amazon is using social distancing technology that informs warehouse workers when they are getting too close to each other, a system that could subsequently be rolled out in airports and other venues.

    A video posted by an Amazon staffer shows him pointing out how a sensor is tracking the movement of employees via colored circles that form a 6 foot perimeter around each person.

    When two people violate ‘social distancing’ the circle turns red and an alarm sounds.

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    “They gonna take a picture and make me get in trouble,” the employee states.

    The technology is called “Distance Assistant” and according to the Verge, “Amazon also says it will be open-sourcing the technology, allowing other companies to quickly replicate and deploy these devices in a range of locations.”

    As we highlighted back in October, Hitachi has developed similar technology, which includes cartoon fish swimming around inside the bubble. When the person violates social distancing, the fish escape.

    The promo video brags that the technology “can even be deployed inside elevators” and Hitachi is “hoping to get the technology commercialized quickly.”

    Given that numerous prominent people are insisting that social distancing and other coronavirus restrictions are here to say, it’s perfectly feasible to imagine a near future in which this technology is widely adopted.

    China is already linking coronavirus rules to its onerous social credit score system, in addition to using AI to discipline its slave labor workforce, so the idea that people could be publicly shamed or punished for getting too close to others is a very real possibility

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    New limited edition merch now available! Click here. In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch. I need you to sign up for my free newsletter here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown. Also, I urgently need your financial support here.

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  • Celebrated Abolitionist Johns Hopkins Exposed As "Slave Owner" 
    Celebrated Abolitionist Johns Hopkins Exposed As “Slave Owner” 
    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 12/11/2020 – 18:40

    Baltimore-based Johns Hopkins University, the leading provider of COVID-19 data, announced Wednesday that its founder owned slaves, contrary to the long-time narrative that Hopkins was a wealthy philanthropist and abolitionist. 

    Researchers Martha S. Jones and Allison Seyler uncovered the new information in government census records as they were on a quest to explore the university’s history. For more than a century, the long-held narrative of Hopkins, an abolitionist, whose father freed the family’s slaves in 1807, has recently come into question.

    University President Ronald J. Daniels and other school officials published an open letter Wednesday saying the findings “complicate the understanding we have long had of Johns Hopkins as our founder.”

    “We now have government census records that state Mr. Hopkins was the owner of one enslaved person listed in his household in 1840 and four enslaved people listed in 1850,” the letter said. “By the 1860 census, there are no enslaved persons listed in the household.”

    “It calls to mind not only the darkest chapters in the history of our country and our city but also the complex history of our institutions since then, and the legacies of racism and inequity we are working together to confront,” the letter continued.

    Watch: University President Ronald J. Daniels Addresses The Life of Johns Hopkins

    Hopkins died in 1873 at age 78. As an entrepreneur and investor, he accumulated a massive amount of wealth that was used to establish a hospital, orphanage, and the university.

    Officials said the researchers would continue to dig deeper to get a better picture of the founder’s past. 

    As more and more schools begin to confront their connection with slavery, such as Princeton and Georgetown, in the last couple of years, they also may consider how to make amends in a world overrun by social justice warriors.

     It’s only a matter of time before social justice warriors target a monument to Johns Hopkins at the university. 

    All Hopkins needs to do at this point is to launch a new scholarship program for slave descendants for everyone to forget about the founder’s history. 

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  • Supreme Court Tosses Texas Bid To Overturn Election
    Supreme Court Tosses Texas Bid To Overturn Election
    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 12/11/2020 – 18:38

    The Supreme Court on Friday tossed a last-minute bid by the state of Texas to overturn the 2020 election by challenging the results of four battleground states.

    Citing a lack of standing, Justice Samuel Alito wrote in a brief order that the state “has not demonstrated a judicially cognizable interest in the manner in which another State conducts its elections,” adding “All other pending motions are dismissed as moot.”

    In doing so, the justices shut down a long-shot bid for Texas to challenge Biden’s wins in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia and Wisconsin – which was joined by 17 other states and over 100 House Republicans.

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    Justices Clarence Thomas joined Alito in stating that they do not believe the court has the authority to outright reject Texas’s request, writing instead “I would therefore grant the motion to file the bill of complaint but would not grant other relief, and I express no view on any other issue.”

    Earlier in the day, President Trump tweeted: “If the Supreme Court shows great Wisdom and Courage, the American People will win perhaps the most important case in history, and our Electoral Process will be respected again!”

    Notably, Trump appointed three of the court’s nine members – causing Democrats to cry foul at the prospect of the highest court in the land deciding the outcome of the 2020 election. Trump himself suggested several times that filling Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s seat with Justice Amy Coney Barrett was essential in the event that the election ended up at the Court. 

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    The case was filed by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who asked the Court to invalidate over 20 million votes in the above-mentioned states so that their GOP-controlled state legislatures could decide who won instead.

    AGs from Pennsylvania and Michigan have responded to the decision:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsThe Texas GOP, meanwhile, suggests that “law-abiding states should bond together and form a Union of states that will abide by the constitution.”

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  • Kass: Kids Are "Casualties Of War" In The Chicago Teachers Union's Power-Play To Keep Schools Closed
    Kass: Kids Are “Casualties Of War” In The Chicago Teachers Union’s Power-Play To Keep Schools Closed
    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 12/11/2020 – 18:20

    Authored by John Kass, op-ed via The Chicago Tribune,

    There’s never been a better argument for national school choice – and freeing low-income children trapped in substandard big-city public education systems – than that idiotic tweet by the leaders of the Chicago Teachers Union.

    “The push to reopen schools is rooted in sexism, racism and misogyny,” read the CTU tweet, posted Sunday at 1:03 p.m.

    It was later deleted. CTU bosses might have realized that those racist, sexist misogynists trying to reopen the Chicago schools during the pandemic – the mayor and the school superintendent – just happen to be Black women. And, that plenty of parents who want their kids back in school happen to be Black and Latino.

    There is nothing as delicious as watching those angry hard-left CTU bosses load up their identity politics bazooka only to blow off their own (rhetorical) feet.

    Why don’t we make this a “teaching moment” for parents who want real choice?

    And for the great public schoolteachers who might be intimidated by those union leaders who are fighting to keep schools closed?

    Some of those teachers send their kids to private schools in Chicago where teachers are in the classroom. They would rather stay quiet. I don’t blame them.

    The science does not support closed schools. Dr. Anthony Fauci and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Dr. Robert Redfield say that kids should be in school with proper precautions.

    Most teachers want to teach in person. They’ve dedicated their lives to being educators. And they know, perhaps more than most of us, how closing schools hurts young people emotionally, socially and academically.

    And many parents also want their children in school, not falling behind, trying to learn on a laptop. Chicago’s mayor and other Democratic elected officials know this, but they’re intimidated by the power of the CTU leadership.

    Before I go any further, please remember I’m not anti-teacher. My wife is a teacher. One of our sons is a teacher. Don’t twist my words to suggest otherwise. Teachers perform the most important job in the country.

    Yet many good teachers are, as I said, intimidated by union bosses. And the political actors tremble because teachers union bosses are their political bosses now.

    I decided to reach out to a man who knows how this works and invited him to be a guest on “The Chicago Way” podcast: Paul Vallas, the former CEO of the Chicago Public Schools. He has been putting pressure on the union and the politicians to open up the schools.

    Former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas, shown Feb. 18, 2019, in Chicago. (Erin Hooley/Chicago Tribune)

    Paul, what about that stupid yet revealing CTU tweet?

    “If they want to talk about racism, there’s nothing more racist than closing schools (for the pandemic) and providing substandard education to the poorest children in the community who are disproportionately Black and Latino,” he said.

    “And there’s nothing more sexist than closing schools, and hurting families, the majority of whom are led by single mothers.

    “So, you want to talk racism and sexism and misogyny?” Vallas asked.

    “The union leadership’s posturing and forcing the schools to be closed is all those things. Because what they’re really doing is committing educational malpractice.”

    It’s disastrous for the teenagers who get lost. Some get lost on the streets of Chicago and die. And the little ones, the elementary school students?

    “The youngest children are at risk,” Vallas said. “Their brains are developing at an accelerated rate.”

    What’s being done to them, he said, is “permanent damage.”

    Cops, firefighters and paramedics go to work every day. Cashiers at the supermarkets are at work every day. We thank them all as we sweat out this pandemic lockdown.

    But if cashiers aren’t at work, they don’t get paid. Yet teachers don’t have to be in the classroom, and they get paid.

    Why aren’t they at work, inside school buildings? If it’s not the science, it’s the politics. It’s a demonstration of control.

    Politicians get paid too. But they’ve allowed the teachers unions to dictate education policy to the detriment of the students and their families.

    The kids need teachers in schools, especially special-needs kids. A child with autism needs in-person instruction. And all children need their teachers. All kids need to be in school, at least for part of the time.

    Most big-city school systems like Chicago serve a majority of low-income families. And as Vallas points out, many of the families are led by single mothers.

    They have to work. And by work, I don’t mean working on Zoom, like a news columnist.

    But who watches the children to make sure that they’re not playing “Call of Duty” on the Xbox?

    Vallas sees those kids — from the city and suburbs in lockdown states across the country — as a lost generation, as casualties of a political war.

    “All those children impacted by these school closings, by excessive remote learning, the children who have dropped out because schools have been closed for such an extensive period of time, these children are going to be permanently scarred.

    “They’re like casualties of war. And the war is the teachers union maintaining or enhancing their benefits while minimizing their workload and placing their employees where there is no risk at all.”

    There’s no risk for the union leaders, who sit in their home office, intimidating Democratic politicians like Lori Lightfoot because they can influence voters to come out when needed.

    But what about the forgotten?

    The children falling behind. Their parents wondering how they’ll be free of a system that treats them this way.

    They’re the ones who should matter. But they don’t.

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  • Bubblicious Markets and Big Tech's Monopolistic Behavior
    Bubblicious Markets and Big Tech’s Monopolistic Behavior

    6215788588001

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 12/11/2020 – 18:03

    Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes senior editor Ash Bennington to discuss water futures, “bubblicious” market froth, and potential anti-competitive behavior by Big Tech. After Ed and Ash give their brief review of political news, Ed shares his analysis of the recent IPOs of DoorDash and Airbnb with Ash noting parallels between current market conditions and those that preceded the Dot-com bubble. Ed and Ash then explore the significance of the recent addition of water futures to the CME exchange. In the intro, Jack Farley and Weston Nakamura embark on a chart-filled journey on the Nikkei 225, the Japanese Yen, and currency pairs. For greater details and more charts from Weston and Jack, check out their conversation in the Real Vision Exchange: https://exchange.realvision.com/post/follow-up-to-my-daily-briefing-int….
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Dec 11

Today’s News 11th December 2020

  • "Free Speech Is Being Weaponized": Columbia Dean And New Yorker Writer Urges More Censorship
    “Free Speech Is Being Weaponized”: Columbia Dean And New Yorker Writer Urges More Censorship

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 12/10/2020 – 21:00

    Authored by Jonathan Turley,

    We have been discussing how reporters, editors, commentators, and academics have embraced rising calls for censorship and speech controls, including President-elect Joe Biden and key advisers. 

    This includes academics rejecting the very concept of objectivity in journalism in favor of open advocacy. Now, Columbia Journalism Dean and New Yorker writer Steve Coll has denounced how the First Amendment right to freedom of speech was being “weaponized” to protect disinformation.

    That’s right. A journalism dean and writer declaring that the problem is that free speech itself is allowing too much freedom on the Internet and other forums.

    Coll’s comments came in a discussion on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” when he was asked by Kasie Hunt about the need for Big Tech to censor speech.

    Rather than defend the right of people to express themselves freely, Coll lashed out at companies like Facebook as “motivated, as all companies are, to make money” though at the same time is “acting like a public square.”  He decried the failure to have more expansive regulation of free speech and showed little concern or merit for arguments from free speech advocates.  Like Harvard academics who recently declared “China was right” about censorship, Coll just assumed that it was self-evident that too much free speech is a bad thing and that these companies need to protect people from harmful or false ideas.

    “And yes, Facebook has moved somewhat. They’ve had a better election in 2020 than they did in 2016. They’ve learned to put some brakes on, you know, here and there, but you can’t get away from the fact that their mission is to connect everybody in the world. That’s what motivates Mark Zuckerberg and it’s his passion and he profoundly believes in free speech.”

    What is most maddening is that Coll spoke on behalf of journalists in calling for less freedom:

    “Those of us in journalism have to come to terms with the fact that free speech, a principle that we hold sacred, is being weaponized against the principle of journalism and what do we do about that,. As reporters, we kind of march into this war with our facts nobly shouldered as if they were going to win the day and what we’re seeing that is because of the scale of this alternative reality that you’ve been talking about, our facts, our principles, our scientific method–it isn’t enough. So what do we do?”

    That used to be an easy question. What you do is allow free speech to combat bad speech. What you do is support the right of citizens and journalists to publish without censorship.  What you do is to embrace the freedom of expression while reinforcing the need to use that freedom to counter disinformation.  Instead, Coll is joining the forces seeking to silence or curtail the speech of others.  You do not support free speech by calling for its curtailment. For free speech advocates, it is as compelling as saying that we needed to “save” villages by destroying them in Vietnam. Worse yet, he is doing it in the names of “good journalism.”

  • America Last: Melinda Gates 'Incredibly Disappointed' After Trump Gives Americans Vaxx First
    America Last: Melinda Gates ‘Incredibly Disappointed’ After Trump Gives Americans Vaxx First

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 12/10/2020 – 20:40

    Melinda Gates is ‘incredibly disappointed’ that Americans will be receiving COVID-19 vaccines, developed by American companies, before the rest of the world.

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    Putting aside overwhelming concerns over safety for a minute – including calls to halt trials until serious questions (including ‘indefinite infertility‘) are addressed – Gates told CNN‘s Poppy Harlow in a Thursday interview that she’s worried about ‘vaccine nationalism.’

    “The president just signed an executive order to try to put Americans at the front of the line when it comes to vaccines,” said Harlow. “I wonder if that’s what you were worried about when you kept saying and warning against vaccine nationalism?”

    “That’s exactly what we were worried about,” replied Gates, adding “I knew it was coming and I was just incredibly disappointed.“

    “I’m much more optimistic about the president-elect and the COVID task force, this eminent task force that he has put together,” she continued. “I think we’re going to see a lot more sensible policy making in the United States, but that starts, you know, January 20 and we have still some dark months to live ahead until then.”

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    More via the Daily Wire:

    Melinda Gates later spoke about “disinformation,” which she said “can equal death.” Harlow asked her if social media companies have a “responsibility” to remove misinformation “off their platforms.”

    “They absolutely have a responsibility,” Melinda Gates replied. Anybody who is spreading information in society has a responsibility to spread that information safely and equitably. “So, you know, I think a bit the internet and the rise of social media has happened so quickly that really the regulations and the good policy making hasn’t stayed out in front of it and, quite frankly, it needs to catch up.”

    Melinda Gates also attacked Trump, claiming there “could have been less deaths” if he did things differently, including contact tracing, which some have criticized as being potentially unconstitutional

    So here’s a question; Assuming Biden becomes President on January 20, and assuming he offshores millions of doses of vaccine which would otherwise go to US citizens, and assuming it’s ‘safe’ (for various values of safe), how many dead Americans will Biden (and Melinda Gates) be directly responsible for?

  • The Oil Refinery Crisis Will Worsen This Winter
    The Oil Refinery Crisis Will Worsen This Winter

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 12/10/2020 – 20:20

    Authored by Julianne Geiger via OilPrice.com,

    It was only to be expected that many of the world’s refiners would be pinched between low demand for finished products and rising inventories as the pandemic lockdowns continue to stifle activity.

    But the warm December that is expected this year is also threatening finished products demand. And it’s possible that many of the older, small refiners won’t survive at all.

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    According to HIS Markit, eleven U.S. refiners are scheduled to close.

    The largest refinery in the United States, Royal Dutch Shell’s Convent, Louisiana refinery has shut down after it was unable to find an interested buyer. But the Dutch oil major is closing six more refineries according to Reuters, because it cannot sell those refineries either.

    Then, the largest U.S. refiner, Marathon Petroleum, is set to close several refineries, including its Gallup, New Mexico, refinery and its refinery in Martinez, California.

    Japan’s Eneos Corp has shut its Osaka refinery, too, but the real pain is in Australia.

    BP announced back at the end of October that it was shutting down its aging 65-year-old Kwinana refinery in Perth, because it was simply “no longer economically viable.”  Instead, the refinery will be turned into an import terminal. After this closure, BP has only three refineries left in Australia.

    PBF Energy shut 85,000 bpd of its Paulsboro, NJ, refinery down. Phillips 66 shut its Alliance refinery down in the runup to Hurricane Sally, but just left it shut while it waits for better days.

    Other refineries that are not shutting down are simply extending maintenance or bringing maintenance forward.

    Australia’s Caltex is a prime example of this, when in early April it brought forward—and extended—maintenance on its only refinery, Lytton. Caltex vaguely said that it would restart the refinery when conditions recover.

    In all, Wood Mackenzie said that nearly 10 percent of Europe’s high-cost refineries, holding 1.4 million barrels per day of capacity, were in serious threat of closure over the next three years.

    None of these developments bode well for oil refiners, which brought out the chicken littles of the oil industry warning of the permanent loss in demand.

    While that might be going too far, more sober analysts are calling for China to surpass the United States as the world’s largest refiner. Why?

    For starters, Asia’s demand for oil products hasn’t seen as much demand loss as its U.S. and European counterparts, which are still in the middle of substantial shutdowns that are stifling activity. This, combined with China’s cheap crude oil purchases, has some analysts anticipating a changing of the guard, so to speak, with China soon overtaking the United States as the world’s largest oil refiner.

    And it doesn’t help that many of China’s refineries are large and new, compared to several older refineries, such as Shell’s Pulau Bukom oil refinery in Singapore, which the company said would see a capacity reduction by half, to just 250,000 bpd.

    Shell’s total refinery capacity has been cut by well over a half a million barrels globally just in the last few months, ostensibly as it seeks to curb emissions. But the reality is, times are tough, and demand for gasoline and jet fuel are waning amid the pandemic.

    According to the International Energy Agency, a total of more than 1.7 million barrels per day of refining capacity in the United States, Japan, Australia, and others has either retired or is set to be retired this year and next. Meanwhile, China, India, and the Middle East are planning refinery additions to the tune of 2.2 million barrels per day—shiny new refineries that are larger and far more efficient.

    S&P Global Platts echoes the IEA’s estimates, stating that 1.69 million bpd of refining capacity is either offline now, or will be offline shortly due to depressed demand.

    The shock to refinery capacities around the world has led some to be concerned with supply. According to S&P Platts, however, oil demand won’t return to 2019 levels until 2022. Whenever the recovery, it will unlikely be the shock that the demand loss was. This should give oil and gas companies time to match capacity with demand as the world calls for more refined products.

  • California Versus Texas
    California Versus Texas

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 12/10/2020 – 20:00

    California has had a nearly identical case trajectory as Texas…

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    • In TX, schools are open. Businesses are open. People can go for a walk.

    • In CA, not so much!

    And then there’s this…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    It’s the “science” you see!

    h/t StraightLineLogic.com

  • Grassley Blasts MSM Over Hunter Biden Hypocrisy
    Grassley Blasts MSM Over Hunter Biden Hypocrisy

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 12/10/2020 – 19:40

    Chuck Grassley is one pissed off Senator.

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    After the Iowa Republican and Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) produced a long-awaited Senate report which concluded that Hunter Biden’s financial dealings with Ukrainian, Chinese and Russian businesses created “criminal financial, counterintelligence and extortion concerns” concerning everything from sex-trafficking to bribery – the MSM panned it as a partisan attack on a presidential candidate’s son.

    Now that Hunter has admitted he’s under investigation for tax fraud (and, as Politico and CNN have added, money laundering and accepting bribes), Grassley is having the last laugh.

    In Thursday remarks on the Senate Floor, Grassley blasted the media after months of covering for the Bidens.

    “For over a year, Senator Johnson and I investigated the Biden financial family dealings,” said Grassley, adding “We found that they engaged in potential criminal financial deals across the globe, including China, which created counterintelligence concerns.”

    Grassley then turned his attention to the MSM, saying “Those same liberal outlets that disparaged our investigation now report that Hunter Biden’s financial deals in China raise counterintelligence concerns.”

    He went on to say that the media should have been covering concerns raised by Republicans instead of covering them up.

    “So you can understand why I think it’s very outrageous that the fourth estate would choose to ignore facts when they are uncovered by Republicans,” Grassley continued. “It shouldn’t take subpoenas and confirmation from Hunter Biden himself to get the rest of the press to pay attention.”

    Watch:

  • Shipping Container Shortages In China Crimp Exports To West 
    Shipping Container Shortages In China Crimp Exports To West 

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 12/10/2020 – 19:20

    No one predicted that the shipping container industry would be absolutely on fire this year, considering China’s strong economic rebound following the virus-induced downturn. Now a shortage of shipping containers in Asia are sending container spot rates to multi-year highs, has already started to crimp China exports. 

    Just how high can Asia-U.S. East Coast spot rates go? Well, the cost of chartering a 40-foot container from China to the US East Coast soared to nearly $5k this week, up 85% since June 1, according to Freightos data in Refinitiv Eikon.

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    Source: Freightos data in Refinitiv Eikon

    A shortage of containers in China comes as exports in the country surged 21% in November from a year ago. Chinese factories are pumping out appliances, electronics, toys, clothes, and personal protective equipment to the world. 

    As explained by Reuters, a “severe shortage” of containers in the Asian country is starting to hit export flows: 

    But due to China’s lopsided trade balance – exporting three containers for every one imported recently – and delays in containers returning to China due to the pandemic overseas, a severe shortage is now starting to pinch export flows. Roughly 60% of global goods move by container, and according to United Nations trade data there are close to 180 million containers worldwide. -Reuters

    Charles Xu, a mirror salesman, located in Yiwu’s export hub in Zhejiang province, which supplies major US retailers, told Reuters that “we ve so many orders but just cannot ship things. Boxes are piling up at our factory and we don’t have much space left. It’s just hard to book containers, and everyone is bidding for them with high price.” 

    China Container Industry Association said the average container turnaround has jumped to 100 days from 60 days because of virus-related capacity cuts in the US and Europe, which has greatly increased the shortage of containers in China. There have already been reports of some US importers not being able to receive shipments in November. 

    In September, we first noted that demand for ocean freight out of China was “leading to equipment shortages in Asia.”

    “The surge in volumes is leading to equipment shortages in Asia. Some shippers are paying premiums on top of spiking rates to guarantee containers and space. The imbalance is also putting pressure on overwhelmed US ports and importers to process and return empty containers quickly.”

    Spot container rates from China are soaring worldwide: 

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    Source: Freightos data in Refinitiv Eikon

    Even with Chinese container manufacturers boosting capacity to keep up with demand – their efforts are still falling short. Mainly because distorted trader flows have resulted in record build-up in containers elsewhere. 

    For instance, the Port of Los Angeles, the nation’s top port, imported 3.5 containers for every one it exported in October. There are currently 326,000 empty containers sitting at the port, according to shipping organization BIMCO.

    One Chinese vendor with clients in the US said, “right now waiting for container is two to four weeks. I still don’t know if I will have a container or not.” 

    Shortages could persist well into the first quarter of 2021 as container manufacturers in China are booked through Feburary. 

    And what could this mean for US consumers? Well, this is what we said back in October: 

    “Inventories are historically low. There is rising concern that companies will not be able to import and deliver enough goods to meet consumer demand during the holiday season.”

    Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian Economics Research at HSBC, suspects this “unusually high demand for goods globally, which is likely to cool as we move into 2021 because of the (expected) service-led recovery, particularly in Western economies.” 

  • Biden Is Off To A Bad Start Under Progressive Pressure
    Biden Is Off To A Bad Start Under Progressive Pressure

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 12/10/2020 – 19:00

    Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

    Under Progressive pressure, Biden ponders canceling $50,000 in student loans.

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    Rogue Executive Actions 

    Biden is already bending to the wishes of Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders to want to forgive student loans. 

    On Monday, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer announced Biden ‘Considering’ Forgiving $50,000 in Student Loan Debt via Executive Action.

    Schumer held a press conference alongside Democratic Congressmen-elect Ritchie Torres, Mondaire Jones and Jamaal Bowman of New York, during which the group announced they have “come to the conclusion” that Biden can “forgive $50,000 of debt the first day he becomes president.”

    “You don’t need Congress, all you need is the flick of a pen and President-elect Biden — then President Biden — can make this happen,” Schumer said.

    Asked if Biden will have the executive authority to forgive the debt, the New York Senator said the president-elect is researching that and “I believe when he does his research, he will find that he does.”

    Congress, Who Needs It?

    I believe we have seen enough rogue executive actions of dubious legality.

    Even if legal, this is a terrible idea. It mainly benefits middle-class whites and unfairly so. 

    We can’t give money to people at the bottom who have lost their jobs, possibly permanently, due to government decree. But hey, let’s  forgive $50,000 in debt to the upwardly mobile.

    Less Education for Your Buck

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    The above chart is from US College Tuition & Fees vs. Overall Inflation.

    Please note the acceleration in 2005. What happened?

    The cost of education escalated madly when Bush passed the bankruptcy reform act of 2005 making student debt not dischargeable in bankruptcy. 

    Flashback 2005

    On April 15, 2005, I penned The Deflation Guarantee Act of 2005.

    Today Congress passed the “The Deflation Guarantee Act of 2005” currently known as the “Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005”.

    Twenty years from now economists are going to be studying legislation from this Congress and signed by this administration and be wondering: “What the * were they thinking?”.

    Anytime this administration passes a law with the “protection” in it, assume it will do just the opposite.

    This was a bill written by loan sharks, and bought via payoffs (otherwise known as campaign contributions) to those voting for this bill. It has NOTHING to do with “Consumer Protection”.

    I believe this will backfire in many ways, and not all of them are fully understood yet.

    Disease vs Symptoms

    I graduated from the University of Illinois in 1976 with a degree in Civil Engineering. The cost of tuition was $250 a semester when I entered college in 1971.

    Some blame states for not contributing to education. Indeed, states would would not raise taxes to cover escalating costs because of voter backlash.

    But that is blaming the disease on the symptom. The disease was then and still is high administration costs, public unions, outrageous coaching contracts, unbelievable pensions, and serious lack of competition. 

    Five Student Loan Facts 

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    Brookings has a set of Five Facts About Student Loans that everyone discussing forgiveness needs to be aware of. 

    1. Six Percent of Borrowers owe a third of the outstanding debt.

    2. About one quarter of borrowers who have about half of the debt borrowed for graduate school.

    3. The individuals who owe the most money are not the individuals who default on debt

    4. Most bachelor’s degree recipients graduate with little to no debt

    5. Even if financial aid covers the whole tuition bill, many students borrow to cover living costs

    Questions of the Day

    • Given those facts, why should borrowers be bailed out at taxpayer expense?

    • If they are, when will it stop?

    Dead on Arrival

    On November 29, I commented Biden’s Progressive Agenda is Dead on Arrival .

    The obvious implication is “DOA in Congress” as opposed to seriously misguided and dubiously legal executive orders. 

    Compelling Case

    HedgEye author Neil Howe makes a compelling case in Is A Student Debt Jubilee Coming?

    Colleges possess such extraordinary pricing power in part because they bar or discourage new competitors and in part because lazy employers rely on a limited number of them to act as credential gate keepers. What federal policy ought to do is actively promote new types of educational institutions better fitted to employer needs and to promote measures by which families can fairly compare the value-added of different schools. Colleges and collegiate associations actively discourage all of the above.  

    In sum, it’s a mistake to enact a student debt jubilee without first rethinking and recasting the whole market for higher education. Otherwise, we’ll either end up right back where we started (with millions of new students crushed by huge debt loads) or somewhere we don’t want to go (with taxpayers committed to covering the cost of whatever colleges want to charge… a bit like they now do with healthcare providers).

    Huge Moral Hazard 

    Debt discharge is a huge moral hazard that encourages more overpaying for useless degrees.

    It will do nothing to address the cost of higher education.

    We need more competition, more accredited schools, more alternatives, and less public union graft. 

    Forgiving debt fosters less competition and more graft.

    Under Pressure

    Biden is under pressure from Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren who believe Biden could not have won without them.

    This claim is off by 180 degrees.

    Election Message

    The fact of the matter is rightful fear of Progressives could have cost Biden the election.

    You can see this in the House and Senate races. 

    Trump lost but Biden had negative coattails. Why? 

    Fear of exactly this kind of liberal agenda. 

    Voters did not want Trump but they did not want liberal nonsense either. 

    Message Not Heard!

    Trump did not get the message. Neither did Biden nor the Progressive wing of the Democratic party. 

    Biden is off to a bad start by listening to the Progressive wing that damn near cost him the election.

  • After Duke's 2-2 Start, Coach Krzyzewski Says Its Time To End The Season Due To COVID
    After Duke’s 2-2 Start, Coach Krzyzewski Says Its Time To End The Season Due To COVID

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 12/10/2020 – 18:40

    At a time when the country is literally days away from getting a vaccine and most sports – including the NBA, NHL, NFL and MLB have forged ahead with their seasons and/or have plans to forge ahead close to normal in 2021 – Duke university Coach Mike Krzyzewski appears to be throwing in the towel on his season.

    And if one were a UNC fan, it could almost look like the Duke coach was blaming Covid for what appears to be a lackluster start for his Duke team. 

    But we digress and we’ll give Krzyzewski the benefit of the doubt. He said publicly this week it is time for the sport to “step back and asses the wisdom of playing games” after Duke dropped a game to Illinois, according to Bloomberg. 

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    CBS noted it was Duke’s “worst start to a regular season since 1999-2000, when that Mike Krzyzewski-coached club shook the funk to finish 29-5 overall.” They also commented: “This team has a long ways to replicating that trajectory. Duke struggled mightily to knock down shots from the perimeter against the Illini, and again it struggled to create offense in the halfcourt.”

    Krzyzewski, who is the winningest college basketball coach in history, said Tuesday: “I don’t think it feels right to anybody. I mean, everyone is concerned.” He says the decision to start the season before a vaccine wasn’t “well planned” and suggested the season be paused. 

    “You know, in our country today, you have 2,000 deaths a day. You know, you have 200,000 cases, a million and a half last week. To me, it’s already pretty bad,” he commented, apparently oblivious to the fact that healthy 20-something athletes have about the same, or less, chance of dying from Covid as they do from the flu. 

    Again, we’re sure Krzyzewski is suggesting this out of concern for the American public and not because he is unhappy with Duke’s start to the season. But come on Coach K, just admit that headlines like this aren’t helping…

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  • Tempering Exuberance: Market Signals Over Market Noise
    Tempering Exuberance: Market Signals Over Market Noise


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 12/10/2020 – 18:25

    Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison joins Tommy Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, to discuss the market exuberance around this week’s IPOs, DeMark indicators, and his forward outlook. Thornton elaborates on why the speculative bubble surrounding the IPOs for DoorDash and Airbnb is worrisome and too volatile to either long or short at this point. He also dives into DeMark indicators, sharing what they are and how he analyzes markets and crafts investing strategies around their use. Thornton then talks about what his outlook in light of a true reopening is for oil, financials, cyclicals, and tech. Harrison and Thornton end on discussing the DXY and currency markets. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin explores the jobless claims spike after the Thanksgiving week and the higher than expected valuations of Airbnb and Doordash going public.

  • Lessons Learned: One Man's Personal Story From The Collapse Of The Soviet Union
    Lessons Learned: One Man’s Personal Story From The Collapse Of The Soviet Union

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 12/10/2020 – 18:20

    Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

    [Editor’s note: Marat K, one of our team members who grew up during the collapse of the Soviet Union, tells the story of his own experiences during that period.]

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    When I was a kid growing up in the Soviet Union, it was essentially forbidden to make a better life for yourself.

    You couldn’t just decide to go back to school, start a business, or switch careers to a thriving new industry.

    And it didn’t matter how hard you worked– you were most likely NEVER going to be promoted. All the top jobs in the Soviet Union were reserved for party loyalists.

    The government removed EVERY possible economic incentive to achieve more… which is why service was pitiful, technology was lagging, and the Soviet economy was consistently in the dumps.

    Now, on occasion, the government would decide that they wanted to populate certain rural areas of Russia, such as remote parts of Siberia.

    Quite often families were simply ordered to pick up and move, as was famously the case under Stalin.

    But by the 1970s, the government would provide a small financial incentive for families– if you moved to Siberia, you could earn a slightly higher salary.

    This became literally the ONLY way that anyone could (legally) make more money in the Soviet Union.

    And that’s how my parents and I ended up moving to a cold, little town in western Siberia in 1985.

    The plan was to stay there for a few years, save money, and then move back to a nicer, bigger city in Russia with a better climate.

    The fact that our new Siberian town didn’t have a single restaurant, cinema, or even an ice-cream place, made the ‘saving money’ part really easy.

    My parents followed through on their plan. And by the early 1990s they had saved enough money to buy a decent house, plus a car, and still have some savings left over.

    But then, the unimaginable happened– the Soviet Union collapsed.

    And the economy crashed.

    Inflation, then hyperinflation, followed, as the government started printing money like crazy in an effort to continue making interest payments on its debt.

    Prices skyrocketed.

    At some point, stores stopped displaying price signs. Why bother, if they were doubling every other week or so?

    Salaries and pensions did not keep up with inflation; almost everyone became more poor with each passing day.

    Most people, including my parents, were caught completely unprepared.

    The general level of financial literacy at the time was pitiful; most Russians didn’t know the first thing about money, finance, or economics, so no one knew how to react to the hyperinflation that was unfolding in front of our very eyes.

    It was as if everyone was frozen in disbelief, including my parents.

    By 1990, before the crisis, my parents had saved 50,000 rubles. At the time, that would have been enough to buy a house and a car.

    After a few years of crisis, my parents still had the same 50,000 rubles. But by then, all they could afford to buy with it was a pair of winter boots for my mother.

    Their entire nest egg has been completely inflated away in a few short years.

    But not everyone has lost during that time.

    Those who successfully navigated the financial Wild West of the 1990s in Russia turned this crisis into the opportunity of their lifetimes.

    For example, I remember seeing ads in a newspaper offering to exchange a flat in Moscow for a poor-quality Soviet car.

    It was an unbelievable trade when you think about it; the guy with the apartment was probably panicking and trying to leave the country, so he  thought it would be a good idea to trade his apartment for a car.

    But ten years later, the car was a worthless pile of scrap. Meanwhile the owner of the flat still held a valuable asset that had appreciated significantly in value and kept up with inflation.

    And naturally the savviest people were able to buy extremely high quality assets on the cheap– like real estate and businesses, including shares of newly-privatized oil companies.

    Investing in Gazprom in the early 1990s was like buying bitcoin in 2010.

    Later these people became known as Russian oligarchs.

    Now, I’m not writing this to suggest that the same financial catastrophe will take place in the US or Europe.

    After all, the ruble didn’t enjoy the status of being the world’s reserve currency in the early 90s. And the economy of the late Soviet Union was already in terrible shape.

    Still, this very recent history should serve as a reminder: idiotic economic policies almost always have consequences.

    When a government goes out of its way to destroy economic incentives, through higher taxes or abusive regulations, bad things usually happen.

    When a government accumulates a mountain of debt that is impossible to pay, bad things usually happen.

    When a central bank conjures trillions of dollars out of thin air, bad things usually happen.

    And I can tell you from personal experience that when a society actively embraces a Communist ideology, bad things usually happen.

    And all of these issues in North America and Europe certainly could create consequences for the dollar and euro some day.

    This isn’t a dire prediction, it’s just common sense… something that most politicians seem to be lacking these days.

    It’s important to think about risks and consequences and prepare for them in advance; I watched my parents lose their entire nest egg and become victims of other people’s stupidity, because they were unprepared.

    But today we have access to so much more information and education. We can learn about how gold and silver have maintained their value against inflation for thousands of years.

    We can learn about other assets, whether productive land, cryptocurrency, or profitable business ventures, that can do well, even in times of crisis.

    And we can make a Plan B… just in case the unthinkable happens. Because if 2020 has taught us anything, it’s that absolutely anything is possible.

    *  *  *

    On another note… We think gold could DOUBLE and silver could increase by up to 5 TIMES in the next few years. That’s why we published a new, 50-page long Ultimate Guide on Gold & Silver that you can download here.

  • 'Imprisoned, Tortured, Harassed, Blackmailed And Stalked': AP Investigation Uncovers Rampant Sexual Misconduct Within FBI
    ‘Imprisoned, Tortured, Harassed, Blackmailed And Stalked’: AP Investigation Uncovers Rampant Sexual Misconduct Within FBI

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 12/10/2020 – 18:00

    Nearly three years ago we reported that the FBI was a hotbed of sexual misconduct, after Inspector General Michael Horowitz uncovered sexual harassment, inappropriate romantic relationships between bosses and subordinates, and outright demands for sex in exchange for promotions.

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    It seems nothing has changed.

    According to an investigation by the Associated Press, the FBI has been subject to at least six sexual misconduct allegations involving senior officials over the past five years, “including two new claims brought this week by women who say they were sexually assaulted by ranking agents.”

    An assistant FBI director retired after he was accused of drunkenly groping a female subordinate in a stairwell. Another senior FBI official left after he was found to have sexually harassed eight employees. Yet another high-ranking FBI agent retired after he was accused of blackmailing a young employee into sexual encounters.

    …

    The AP review of court records, Office of Inspector General reports and interviews with federal law enforcement officials identified at least six allegations against senior officials, including an assistant director and special agents in charge of entire field offices, that ranged from unwanted touching and sexual advances to coercion.

    None appears to have been disciplined, but another sexual misconduct allegation identified in the AP review of a rank-and-file agent resulted in him losing his security clearance. –AP

    “They’re sweeping it under the rug,” said one former FBI analyst with who is suing the agency after claiming that a supervisory special agent ‘licked her face and groped her‘ at a colleague’s 2017 farewell party, and has since been diagnosed with post-traumatic distress disorder. Meanwhile, others have accused FBI agents of far worse:

    In one of the new lawsuits filed Wednesday, a former FBI employee identified only as “Jane Doe” alleged a special agent in charge in 2016 retired without discipline and opened a law firm even after he “imprisoned, tortured, harassed, blackmailed, stalked and manipulated” her into having several “non-consensual sexual encounters,” including one in which he forced himself on her in a car. The AP is withholding the name and location of the accused special agent to protect the woman’s identity.

    “As the premier law enforcement organization that the FBI holds itself out to be, it’s very disheartening when they allow people they know are criminals to retire and pursue careers in law enforcement-related fields,” said the former employee, identified only as Becky.

    AP notes that their investigation doesn’t include the ‘growing number of high-level FBI supervisors who have failed to report romantic relationships with subordinates in recent years.’

    The last time an inspector general conducted an extensive probe of sexual misconduct within the FBI flagged 343 ‘offenses’ between 2009 – 2012, including three instances of “videotaping undressed women without consent.”

    Meanwhile, a 17th woman has joined a federal lawsuit alleging systemic sexual harassment at the FBI’s Quantico, VA training academy – in which male FBI instructors are said to have made “sexually charged” comments about women who need to “take their birth control to control their moods.” Female trainees were also invited to their homes and openly disparaged, according to the filing.

    Read the rest of the report here.

  • Will COVID Cool Millennials' Crush On Socialism?
    Will COVID Cool Millennials’ Crush On Socialism?

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 12/10/2020 – 17:40

    Authored by Luka Ladan via RealClearPolitics.com,

    As the 2020 election dust settles, one thing is clear: Republicans have a youth problem.

    Sixty percent of voters under 30 supported President-elect Joe Biden, who will become the oldest U.S. president in history. However, Biden’s election is only the tip of an iceberg: In today’s America, 70% of people my age are open to voting for a socialist presidential candidate. According to a recent survey, more than one-third of Millennials (35%) support the gradual elimination of capitalism in favor of a more collectivist system.

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    Biden may not be a socialist (although his platform is the most liberal in presidential history), but  the Republican pitch is clearly falling on deaf ears. Free-marketeers are losing the war of words.

    In the 1940s, a plurality of Americans (34%) associated socialism with “government ownership or control.” By 2018, that percentage was halved. Today, the most common association with socialism is “equality.”

    Democrats understand the importance of language. When Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York advocates for the Green New Deal, she is careful to position an objectively radical proposal as a “solution to climate change,” and not a $93 trillion expansion of federal oversight.

    But socialism’s popularity cannot solely be attributed to the successes of Democratic messaging, or the biases of mainstream media coverage for that matter. In truth, Americans my age have become desensitized to the dangers of Big Government in practice. It has been more than 30 years since the Berlin Wall fell. It has been over a century since the Bolsheviks upended Russia’s political order—a precursor for communism’s spread to the likes of China, North Korea, and Vietnam.

    I see it in my own life. My parents survived communism in former Yugoslavia and the civil war that followed, fleeing their homeland to live the American Dream. Along the way, they shared anecdotes about Josip Broz Tito’s communist regime—from Marxist teachings at school to the persecution of political dissenters on Goli Otok.

    But those experiences are not my own. Even for a Millennial steadfastly opposed to collectivism, it is easier to comprehend the economic ramifications of a 50-cent-per-gallon gas tax than the risks of speaking out against Tito. I understand and even sympathize with Millennials who forget that individual liberty is never guaranteed. 

    We may encounter horror stories from Venezuela, but they seem inapplicable to the American experience. We may learn about the plight of Uighur Muslims in China, but what do they have to do with a “Green New Deal”?

    In truth, very little. However, a greater openness to socialism should terrify the tens of millions of Americans who still support capitalism, including Republicans in the political trenches.

    So what’s next? Perhaps there is light at the end of the tunnel—because of the coronavirus. American Millennials may never experience Soviet aggression or Venezuelan collectivism, but we are touched by the heavy hand of government in the COVID-19 era.

    In Florida, Miami Mayor Dan Gelber has encouraged law enforcement to issue citations to people not wearing a face mask outside. In California, Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti has shut down indoor and outdoor dining, and New York City may soon follow. In Oregon, Gov. Kate Brown threatened state residents with $1,250 fines and 30 days imprisonment for hosting Thanksgiving gatherings of seven people or more.

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    This is not to say that the COVID-19 pandemic should go unaddressed, but American freedoms face unprecedented attack—not from a public health crisis, but from public officials going to extreme lengths in its name. Conceding undue power to government is a slippery slope to tyranny and oppression.

    Personal experience remains the best antidote to socialism. Those who live through the perils of Big Government are more likely to reject its advances. There is a reason why 55% of Florida’s Cuban-Americans voted for President Trump, and not a Democratic Party that has expressed support for the Castro regime.

    The political fallout of COVID-19 remains to be seen. Perhaps, Millennials will embrace governmental excess in response to a novel virus. Perhaps, we will begin to question that encroachment into our daily lives.

    Only time will tell. But, if we are lucky, America will be less socialist upon leaving a pandemic than entering one.

  • FDA Panel Recommends Approval Of Pfizer/BioNTech COVID Vaccine
    FDA Panel Recommends Approval Of Pfizer/BioNTech COVID Vaccine

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 12/10/2020 – 17:38

    After an unprecedentedly short period from inception to trial to results, Pfizer/BioNTech’s mRNA COVID vaccine has just been approved (after an all-day meeting) by the Food and Drug Administration Advisory panel for emergency use in the US.

    This was the question to be voted on…

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    Notably there was a lot of argument about removing the 16 years or older segment of the question.

    These were the voters:

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    And the final vote count was as follows: 17 Yes, 4 No, 1 Abstain

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    The FDA itself will now take this outside adviser group’s into account to decide on emergency use. Although the FDA does not have to follow the panel’s recommendation, it is widely expected to do so.

    This follows approvals by UK and Canada, but several populations were excluded from the trials – meaning the vaccine isn’t known to be safe for all Americans just yet…

    “There are currently insufficient data to make conclusions about the safety of the vaccine in subpopulations such as children less than 16 years of age, pregnant and lactating individuals, and immunocompromised individuals,” a recent FDA review concluded.

    So what happens next is all Americans are propagandized (we’re all in this together, be a patriot) or coerced (no travel or work without a vaccine) into taking the vaccine.

    As NIAID director Anthony Fauci tells Axios, “once 75%–80% of people get vaccinated against the coronavirus, there should be strong enough herd immunity that we can return to normal activities.”

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    Of course, politics is likely to rear its ugly head as decision are made, state by state, on the logistics and ‘equitable’ distribution of the vaccines beyond the simple cohorts of most-at-risk and healthcare workers. As Phillip Giraldi noted:

    There is a strong consensus that the first recipients of the vaccine must be health care workers, a group that has suffered disproportionately from the disease and which constitutes the first line of defense against its spread.

    After that, however, there is little clarity.

    Suggestions that elderly people, particularly in nursing homes, should be inoculated, have been countered by those who believe that a limited supply of vaccine should go primarily to people who would be able to go back to work.

    And then there are the politicians in each jurisdiction, who oddly believe that their work is vital. They and their families will be lining up.

    In short, who gets vaccinated will likely depend on the deals and arrangements that have been worked out, often at the state and local level in the United States, and at national government level in most other places.

    Logically, the vaccine should go first to those who are most at risk for contracting the disease and dying from it, but logic likely will not prevail.

    Generally speaking, it is expected that after health care workers and perhaps the vulnerable elderly, front line police and emergency services should be next in line due to their frequent contact with the possibly infected public, followed by workers in places like slaughterhouses where work conditions have created infection hot spots.

    Next in line would logically be workers in shops or businesses where there is regular contact with the public, but as such employees are generally low wage they will likely be pushed to the back of the bus.

    Inevitably, the claims that there is a racial angle to the disease will certainly surface in places like the New York Times, leading to demands to vaccinate minorities first.

    This will surely be resisted. Given the political realities of the pandemic and the socio-economic engineering that will no doubt take place, the real excitement will likely begin when the vaccine actually begins to become available, probably just before Christmas!

    In the meantime, as Dr. Fauci pronounced, “you can’t give [masks and social distancing] up completely until you get such a level of herd immunity that the virus has no place to go.”

    Don’t hold your breath, America.

  • Citadel Makes Over $1 Billion Trading Commodities In 2020
    Citadel Makes Over $1 Billion Trading Commodities In 2020

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 12/10/2020 – 17:20

    It’s not just J PMorgan that made a $1 billion trading commodities, at roughly the same time that it paid a record $1 billion fee for manipulating the gold market: Ken Griffin’s Citadel, where Ben Bernanke is a senior advisor, also had a great year in the sector with Reuters reporting that Citadel’s investments in commodities returned more than $1 billion this year, helping to drive strong overall performance for one of the world’s largest funds.

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    This is a repeat performance for Citadel’s commodities business, which was also up by at least $1 billion in 2019, boosted by strong gains in European natural gas and power trading.

    Citadel “benefited from gains across the commodities business in oil, power, natural gas and agriculture markets this year” Reuters’ sources said, with Citadel’s flagship multi-strat Wellington fund up by 21.2% this year through November, putting it on track to have its best year since 2012. Citadel has materially outperformed the HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index – which tracks the performance of the global hedge fund industry – and which gained 6.2% in November, the strongest monthly gain since December 1999, and is up 7.3% year-to-date.

    Citadel, which had about $35 billion in assets under management as of Oct. 1, recently hired a former Glencore energy derivatives trader to head its first commodities trading team in Asia, and recruited former Morgan Stanley commodities trading chief Jay Rubenstein. The fund also hired Eike Schick, former head of the European natural gas desk at Freepoint Commodities, as a portfolio manager in London, and Mark Tawney, who ran Munich Re Trading, joined the company to lead a weather derivatives team earlier this year.

    According to Bloomberg, Citadel’s Wellington fund returned 21% this year through November. All five of the fund’s core investment strategies contributed to the gain and have positive returns for the year.

     

  • Setting Up A Siege? Antifa Has Armed Guards, Stockpiled Weapons At Portland Autonomous Zone
    Setting Up A Siege? Antifa Has Armed Guards, Stockpiled Weapons At Portland Autonomous Zone

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 12/10/2020 – 17:00

    Authored by Tyler O’Neil via PJ Media,

    The antifa occupiers at the autonomous zone that sprung up in Portland this week appear to be preparing for a siege. As PJ Media’s Victoria Taft reported, antifa squatters took over a house in Portland and when the government rightly evicted them, they set up an autonomous zone.

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    On Wednesday, Portland’s police chief reported that antifa has fortified barricades, stockpiled weapons, set up armed guards, and threatened to kill police officers. Both the police chief and the mayor have urged the rebels to lay down their arms, but it appears they are refusing to do so.

    “We want a peaceful & safe resolution to the occupation of public space on N Mississippi Ave. We are greatly concerned about the fortification of barricades, stockpiling of weapons, armed sentries, attacks on journalists & threats to kill officers in graffiti in this public space,” Chief Chuck Lovell tweeted on Wednesday. “I encourage those involved to reach out to our demonstration liaisons so we can discuss a peaceful outcome.”

    “We are aware of the stockpile of weapons and the presence of firearms. We are aware of the threats to the community, to media, to police. We’ve seen the attacks. The Portland Police will enforce the law and use force is necessary to restore order to the neighborhood,” Lovell added in a brief speech about the autonomous zone.

    On Tuesday, Mayor Ted Wheeler (D-Portland) announced he was “authorizing the Portland Police to use all lawful means to end the illegal occupation on North Mississippi Avenue and to hold those violating our community’s laws accountable. There will be no autonomous zone in Portland.”

    Wheeler went on to acknowledge the extremely radical claims of Marxist Critical Race Theory that inspire much of the antifa rioting.

    “We all agree many of our nation’s systems and structures are fundamentally racist and require significant reform. There’s a housing crisis, a health care crisis, an education crisis, an employment crisis, a mental health crisis, and an addiction crisis,” he argued. “All of these crises are magnified in urban areas, including Portland. And, these crises disproportionately impact Black people.”

    Yet Wheeler refused to follow the logic of the more radical Black Lives Matter and antifa crowd, who use those arguments to justify rioting, looting, and arson.

    “It’s also true that illegal trespassing, ignoring lawful orders from police, blocking sidewalks and streets, and intimidating neighbors inflame these crises and make [these crises] more difficult to solve. That is what’s happening on North Mississippi Avenue right now,” the mayor argued.

    The antifa occupation appears to have emerged after a judge ordered that people illegally occupying a home must be evicted. Activists appear to have seized on the eviction as racist, oppressive, or otherwise illegitimate. Wheeler defended the eviction, noting that “Multnomah County chose the time, place and manner of the eviction and Portland Police provided support.”

    “It’s time for the encampment and occupation to end,” the mayor concluded. “There are many ways to protest and work toward needed reform. Illegally occupying private property, openly carrying weapons, threatening and intimidating people are not among them.”

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    Twitter screenshot of Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler’s thread on autonomous zone.

    Wheeler is right to defend the rule of law in this case, but his sympathy for Marxist Critical Race Theory undermines his case. If America’s “systems and structures” are “fundamentally racist,” as the mayor claimed, that inspires irrational anger and an aimless attempt to overthrow the existing order — by force, if necessary.

    Wheeler himself repeatedly insisted that the violent antifa riots that racked Portland this summer were peaceful. He even attended one such riot, and he claimed that there was no justification for federal officers using tear gas — while rioters threw a Molotov cocktail near where Wheeler was standing!

    Portland Police should restore order, break up the antifa autonomous zone, and defend the peace and safety of the city’s citizens around N. Mississippi Ave. This should be a no-brainer. Sadly, the very Marxist Critical Theory that inspires the riots has infiltrated the commanding heights of American culture, so much so that even the public official whose job it is to order the cops to restore order is echoing the very talking points that antifa militants use to justify their crimes.

    The riots this summer, ostensibly focused on helping the black community, destroyed black lives, black livelihoods, and black monuments. At least 26 Americans have died in the riots, most of them black. The riots proved the most destructive in American history when it comes to insurance claims.

    Police should break up the siege, and quickly. Wheeler should also consider the consequences of his radical rhetoric.

  • Weedmaps To Go Public Through $1.5 Billion Merger
    Weedmaps To Go Public Through $1.5 Billion Merger

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 12/10/2020 – 16:40

    Weedmaps, a popular website where users can learn about different strains of marijuana and locate local dispensaries, has agreed to go public by merging with Silver Spike Acquisition Corp. in a deal which values the webstie at approximately $1.5 billion, according to Reuters – which adds that it’s a “rare example of a business focused on the cannabis sector listing on a U.S. stock exchange.”

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    Companies which involve direct selling of marijuana, or which are ‘plant touching’ are unable to list shares in the Untied States. Weedmaps does neither.

    “When you look at what we’re offering (to investors), there’s really not too much else like it,” said Chris Beals, CEO of Weedmaps parent, WM Holding Company.

    The Irvine, California-based website was founded in 2008 by Doug Francis and Justin Hartfield, and offers marijuana dispensaries the ability to list their inventory in real time, while the site also hosts a review and ratings platform.

    Weedmaps expects to receive gross proceeds of up to $575 million from the deal, in part from proceeds Silver Spike had raised and also through $325 million in a private investment in public equity, or PIPE, transaction. Investors in the PIPE include funds from the Federated Hermes Kaufmann Funds, Senvest Management LLC and AFV Partners.

    Silver Spike shares were indicated up 8.8% at $11.41 in premarket trading. Reuters first reported news of the deal on Wednesday. –Reuters

    The company is expected to deliver $160 million in revenue and has been profitable for its entire 12-year history, according to Beals.

    The deal comes less than a week after US lawmakers in the House of Representatives voted to decriminalize marijuana at the federal level, which is expected to remain a symbolic vote unless Democrats regain the Senate in a January runoff election in Georgia. It’s the first time either chamber of Congress has voted to end the federal ban on marijuana since 1970, when it was listed as a “controlled substance.”

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    Meanwhile, 15 US states and the District of Columbia have legalized marijuana for recreational use, while 30 states allow some form of medicinal use.

    Silver Spike, a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) raised $250 million in an August, 2019 Nasdaq IPO with a focus on buying within the cannabis sector.

    “There was no better opportunity and no more dynamic company and story for us to consider a transaction with than with WMH,” said Gordon in an interview.

  • US Suffers Record 3K+ COVID Death; States Expand Stay-At-Home Orders: Live Updates
    US Suffers Record 3K+ COVID Death; States Expand Stay-At-Home Orders: Live Updates

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 12/10/2020 – 16:20

    Summary:

    • NY nears new records
    • Virginia imposes new restrictions
    • Ohio at “extremely critical” juncture
    • US deaths top 3K/day for first time
    • Global cases near 70MM
    • FDA panel meets on Pfizer vaccine
    • Saudi approves Pfizer vaccine for import/export
    • India’s largest chain of hospitals ready to administer 1MM vaccinations/day
    • Malaysia reports new daily case record
    • Denmark expands partial lockdow

    * * *

    Update (1600ET): Another day has passed, and New York is again poised to break a new record any day now. The state reported 10,600 new cases Wednesday, numbers that prompted Gov. Cuomo to discourage holiday travel.

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    Source: Bloomberg

    Still, the pandemic looks much different now than it did 8 months back. The days of sirens echoing across the eerily empty streets of Manhattan are over.

    However, the number of patients hospitalized statewide is about 25% of what it was in April when coronavirus overwhelmed the health-care system in the nN. Patients are spending less time in the hospital, and less often require intensive procedures like intubation. Thanks to more sophisticated treatment, the virus is killing less often.

    Finally, an FDA panel is reviewing Pfizer’s COVID vaccine, just a day or two after more than 3K US deaths in a single day added to urgency that the country deploy its first vaccine. Virginia announced a limited nightly stay-at-home order after reporting a record daily cases this week. Ohio Governor Mike DeWine said December is an “extremely critical” month as the state extended its curfew through Jan. 2.

    A US pilots union asked for priority access to the vaccine.

    In Europe, France, the country with the most confirmed cases on the Continent, backed off plans to reopen theaters, museums, cinemas and sports facilities next week as its outbreak remains one of the worst anyway,

    * * *

    The US reported more than 3K COVID-19 deaths during the 24 hours to Wednesday, topping the 3K figure for the first time, as hospitalizations in the US hit a new record.

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    Once again, new cases topped 200K/day, pushing the 7-day average to 204K, while, hospitalizations across the US climbed to 106.7K, a new high.

    With the FDA expected to approve Pfizer’s COVID vaccine for emergency use, the UK reported a major stumbling block on Wednesday when it revealed that people with “severe” allergies shouldn’t take the COVID vaccine – at least, not right away. It’s just the latest indication that the rushed approval process has left many questions unanswered.

    What’s more, Pfizer also revealed that a cyberattack had led to the potential leak of some documents handed over to a European regulator relating to its vaccine review.

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    The biggest number of the day is the death rate, as the daily number hit 3,054, while the 7-day average hit a new record high of 2,276.

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    Cases in the northeast and West are increasingly rapidly, with the 7-day average for cases per million residents up to 628 in the northeast and 644 in the West.

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    India’s largest hospital chain said it’s ready to administer one million coronavirus vaccine doses a day.

    California’s average rate of positive tests over the last 14 days reached 8.8% as of yesterday, the highest level since the spring, as officials reported a new record daily number: 30K+ new cases.

    After German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned that new COVID restriction would be needed before Christmas, authorities in Germany are discussing tighter nationwide restrictions before Christmas, and some regions are already acting. Berlin is set to join Bavaria and Saxony in imposing new ‘lockdown light’ measures. Berlin, meanwhile, plans to close all non-essential shops and extend school breaks until Jan. 10, said Mayor Michael Mueller on Thursday.

    “At the moment, it’s the worst of three worlds” said one official citing too many infections, high costs to support affected businesses, and public fatigue from weeks of pandemic curbs, Health Minister Jens Spahn said. “It will become noticeably worse before it gets better, but we need to have confidence that it will get better.”

    Meanwhile global cases have reached 69,069,399, just on the cusp of 70MM, according to Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, while the worldwide death toll has hit 1.57MM.

    Here’s some more COVID news from Thursday morning and overnight:

    President Trump’s attorney Rudy Giuliani says he left hospital feeling “better than ever” after being admitted to Georgetown University Medical Center with “serious symptoms” for Covid-19 a few days ago (Source: Bloomberg).

    Malaysia logged the highest single-day jump in new cases, days after the country extended curbs on movement in some states to help stem the spread of infections but relaxed restrictions in other places (Source: Bloomberg).

    The head of the European Union’s drug regulator says a recent cyberattack has not disrupted the agency’s review of COVID-19 vaccine candidates (Source: Nikkei).

    Denmark will expand its partial lockdown to cover two-thirds of the country, according to broadcaster TV2. The Social Democrat government will discuss measures with other parties in parliament later on Thursday (Source: Bloomberg).

    Japan confirms a nationwide record 2,820 daily coronavirus infections, after Tokyo’s count exceeded 600 for the first time. A Tokyo Metropolitan Government panel warns, “The medical system has started to become strained” (Source: Nikkei).

    * * *

    As we await the final word from the FDA, Saudi Arabia’s health authorities have registered the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine for import and use, Reuters reports, citing a report in the Middle Eastern kingdom’s state news agency SPA. This clears the way for import and inoculation procedures involving the vaccine to begin. KSA has a total of about 359,000 infections with 6,000 deaths, though it has made progress in flattening its curve. Saudi is the second ME country to approve the Pfizer vaccine after Bahrain.

     

  • Is The Globalist "Reset" Failing? The Elites May Have Overplayed Their Hand
    Is The Globalist “Reset” Failing? The Elites May Have Overplayed Their Hand

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 12/10/2020 – 16:20

    Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

    One aspect of narcopaths (narcissistic sociopaths) that is important to remember is that they live in their own little world in which their desires and bizarre dysfunctions are normalized. They believe themselves superior to most people because they are predatory, and don’t suffer from annoying hang-ups like empathy and conscience. They generally tend to believe they have pulled the wool over everyone’s eyes the majority of the time. They think that you are a submissive idiot, and that when they bark an order, you will simply jump to attention because you “believe”.

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    Almost every aspect of the globalists and their behavior indicates they are a club or cult of narcopaths. Their obsessive need to control as well as to corrupt and destroy in order to get what they want is not an extension of mere greed, it is a deep-seated aspect of who they are as beings. It is a defining mechanism at the core of their character. They are real world monsters, like vampires attempting to blend into an unsuspecting population.

    In their arrogance, then tend to expect they can drain the public dry at will without being resisted or exposed. The problem is, as soon as they start to feed and destroy they draw attention to themselves. Eventually, they will attract the suspicions of the public, along with some vampire hunters. Unless they find a way to hide a stake through the heart is inevitable.

    I have been writing about the threats of globalism and the “reset” for many years now, and I have noted for some time two separate quandaries; one affecting the liberty movement and the other affecting the globalists:

    1) First, criminals tend to brag about their crimes when they think that it’s too late for anyone to do anything about them. I predicted the globalists would be very open in revealing their agenda the moment they believed themselves “untouchable”. For the freedom loving public this suggests that in 2020 going into 2021 that the elites must think there is nothing that can be done to stop the machine; they are so blatant in their calls for the global “reset”, a cashless society, totalitarian lockdowns and a surveillance state that no one in their right mind can claim these notions are “conspiracy theory” anymore.

    The fact is, the “conspiracy theorists” were RIGHT ALL ALONG, and now there is nothing anyone can say about it.

    2) Second, I have also argued in the past that the globalist push for a “new world order” is a double edged sword that could very well end up annihilating them. As they attempt to initiate their reset agenda, they become more and more exposed; they can no longer lurk in the safety of the shadows and there is no going back once the process is started. Once the globalists become widely known, they must either swiftly take control through engineered chaos and collapse, or face retribution that could eliminate a cabal that took them centuries to build. Vampires must make the rest of the world a dark place before leaving the shadows, or they risk dying in the light of day.

    There are two schools of thought in the liberty movement; one suggesting that the globalist agenda is fixed and unstoppable and that the best anyone can do is survive. The second suggests that the reset can be stopped and the globalists can be brought to justice. I stand in both camps.

    There are aspects of the reset that are indeed fixed and that cannot be undone. For example, numerous national economies including the US are in the midst of a stagflationary collapse and there is nothing that can be done to reverse it. Perhaps a decade ago we could have changed course, but now it is too late. The pain can be reduced if people quickly end their dependency on the system and create localized trade networks of their own, but the economy as we know it right now is dead and it is not coming back anytime soon.

    I do not see this, though, as a win for the elites. Crashing the economy is one thing, rebuilding it into the collectivist dystopia they desperately want is another. Everything depends on who rebuilds; maybe it will be them, maybe it will be us.

    I am seeing some encouraging signs these days that the globalist reset is NOT a sure thing, and those that know my work know I have never been one for misplaced optimism. Specifically, the exploitation of the pandemic response as a means to ram through numerous draconian restrictions does not seem to be going exactly as the elites planned.

    I have to look back at Event 201 to really gauge the state of the game, because what the elites planned and what has happened do not completely match up. For those not familiar, Event 201 was a type of “war game” held by globalists from the World Economic Forum and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The scenario? A pandemic outbreak of a coronavirus which would spread like wildfire and kill a predicted 65 million people. The simulation was held only a couple of months before the real thing happened at the start of 2020.

    In the year since the outbreak, the globalists have attempted to enforce nearly every plan that was outlined during Event 201, including using social media to censor or restrict any news or information outside of the establishment approved narrative (Yes, narrative control was discussed at the event in great detail). Klaus Schwab of the World Economic Forum has consistently and excitedly applauded the pandemic crisis as a “perfect opportunity” to institute the “reset” that the globalists have been talking about for years.

    Unfortunately for them, the virus has not been anywhere near as deadly as they appear to have hoped. With a death rate of well below 1% for anyone outside of a nursing home with preexisting conditions, the establishment has now been forced to pump up infection numbers as a means to terrorize the populace because the death numbers are not enough to convince people to willingly hand over their freedoms. The Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) for Covid 19 not counting nursing home deaths with preexisting conditions is only 0.26% of those infected.

    There is a propaganda meme being passed around these days that tries to exaggerate the danger of death from Covid, and it goes a little something like this:

    “Covid has killed more people that the Vietnam War and the Gulf Wars combined in a single year, therefore your freedoms are forfeit…”

    This is an idiotic talking point but luckily no one is buying it.

    Over 40% of Covid deaths are people that are already sick and on the verge of dying anyway (And no, refusing to wear masks is not the same as endorsing “death panels”, because a death panel is about socialists refusing treatment to people at risk because of their age. No one is suggesting that old people be refused treatment, and they always have the option of staying under quarantine if they fear they will become infected. They are already retired and receiving social security, perhaps if we are going to stimulate then the bailout money should go to those most at risk so that the rest of us can continue on with normal life?)

    Hundreds of thousands of people die every year from diseases and illnesses including the flu, common colds and pneumonia, yet, the prospect of abandoning the Bill of Rights, submitting to economic shutdowns and wearing a muzzle on our faces wherever we go was never brought up before.

    Why should we ask 99.7% of Americans or the world to accept medical tyranny just to make .26% of the population feel safe? People who question the mandates are called “selfish”, but even if I was one of the people susceptible to the virus, I would NEVER demand that 99% of the population bow to totalitarianism at the off chance that I might live a little while longer. Now THAT would be selfish.

    As more and more studies and data are released, the mask mandates are also coming into question. Though Big Tech has sought to suppress or censor studies that run contrary to the mainstream narrative, this has only led more people to question the motivations of governments pushing the mandates. After all, the mainstream media keeps saying that we should “listen to the science”, but they ignore or censor the science. So, if the pandemic response is not based in science, then it must only be about control.

    Many Americans are not as stupid as the elites think. They see the inconsistencies in the rhetoric and the data and they are increasingly prone to refuse to comply. This might be why the establishment is suddenly rushing out at least two Covid vaccines in the span of half a year; they have to get the vaccine phase of the Reset underway before too many people jump from the panic bandwagon.

    The vaccine rush and the claims of effectiveness of 94% to 95% from Pfizer and Moderna are suspect. The average effectiveness of most vaccines is around 50% or less, and these are vaccines with hundreds of trials and years of usage. Somehow, Pfizer and Moderna were both able to produce a vaccine for a SARS type virus when multiple governments tried for over a decade to produce vaccines for SARS in China and were unsuccessful, and they were able to achieve 95% effectiveness?

    Many people are not buying the vaccine story, and this is perhaps why the elites are jumping headlong into vaccination so fast. Consider this fact:

    Numerous polls indicate that at least 1 in 3 Americans plan to refuse the Covid vaccine when it is released to the general public. 

    60% of Americans have stated in polls that they will not take the vaccine unless it is proven to be at least 75% effective.

    Here I think we have our explanation for the vaccination bonanza. The elites know that a third of Americans (and probably Europeans) will not take the vaccine regardless of any propaganda they dish out. They also know that 60% of Americans are unlikely to take the vaccine unless they can show an effectiveness rate of at least 75%. Neither Moderna nor Pfizer have actually produced any evidence that their vaccines are capable of prevented severe illness or death from Covid, so, their effectiveness rate is based on “projections” of success according to their minimal trials. Meaning, the effectiveness rate of 95% is completely arbitrary.

    Why did they go with such a high number instead of a more realistic 50% to 60%? Because the polls say they need an epic effectiveness rate in order to convince Americans to take the vaccine. I think it is really as simple as that.

    Americans are skeptical of the vaccines for a number of reasons. The reality that they are minimally tested and rushed out in less than a year is one reason . The fact that the government and the media have been caught censoring or lying about Covid data is another reason. People just don’t trust the elites, and who can blame them? Who would trust a cabal of psychopaths to inject them with an unknown viral cocktail? Maybe their intentions are not so pure?

    The public is right to be suspicious. A former Pfizer vice president, Dr. Michael Yeadon among other medical professionals have recently warned that the vaccines have not been adequately tested and that there is a risk of “indefinite infertility” for women who take the current Covid vaccine due to damaging autoimmune response. In other words, the vaccine could make many women barren and unable to have children.

    Maybe this is what Bill Gates meant when he stated in his Ted Talk that “vaccines and reproductive services” could help contribute to a reduction of the Earth’s population of 10% to 15% as a means to “stop global warming.

    Why would Bill Gates mention vaccines in the same breath as “reproductive services” in reference to population reduction? Aren’t vaccines supposed to help people live longer? Well, the Pfizer VP’s warning about the Covid vaccine is ringing bells for me. Maybe the Covid vaccine won’t make you sick, or kill you. Maybe you will live a long life free of coronavirus, but you’ll find out a few years after taking the vaccine that you won’t ever be able to have kids.

    Watch the movie ‘Children Of Men’ to get a sense of what the future might be like if the globalists get their way.

    In the meantime, the elites are trying with everything they have to convince the public that they must abandon notions of civil liberties in the name of survival and “the greater good”.

    They are already talking about how things will never go back to normal, and the changes being made today will stay in place for many years to come.

    Governments are in the media right now claiming the vaccines “will not be mandatory”. This is a lie. At the same time they are putting mandates in place to require you to prove you are vaccinated in order to go to public places and even to go to work. Basically, you take the vaccine or you die from poverty. This is not a choice.

    But, I see millions of Americans standing in opposition to this agenda. I see sheriffs and police across the country refusing to enforce the agenda, even in hard-left states like California. I see protests in lockdown states like Michigan, California and New York. I see mass protests in Europe.  I see the Reset scheme being exposed and the truth breaking into the mainstream.

    I see something rising to the surface, and I smell that gunpowder scent of rebellion, and I like it.

    I’m not pessimistic about the future. I know a crash is coming. I know a fight is coming. But right now what I see is a fight that can and will be won by those that respect the principles of freedom. The globalists may have overplayed their hand.

    *  *  *

    If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch.  Learn more about it HERE.

  • Bonds & Black Gold Bid As Negative Nabobs Battle New Issue Nirvanans
    Bonds & Black Gold Bid As Negative Nabobs Battle New Issue Nirvanans

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 12/10/2020 – 16:02

    Another day, another astoundingly exuberant bid for an IPO as AirBnB opened with one of the biggest pops ($146 vs $68 IPO) since 2008 seemingly confirming JPMorgan’s “market nirvana” argument. But, “on the other hand” – as CNBC might say – stimulus doubts and vaccine take-up uncertainty (as well as extremes in sentiment and positioning) leave the negative nattering naybobs askance.

    ABNB ended below its opening print…

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    All of which provided yet another mixed picture with Small Cap stocks bid, big caps offered for sale, oil up strongly but bonds aggressively bid, gold up and bitcoin down, and Smart money not buying any of the excitement…

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    Source: Bloomberg

    Just remember “you are not your Robinhood brokerage balance…”

    Stocks were mixed after an early buying panic at the cash open, chopping around on various headlines of “hope” for stimulus and disappointing increases in curfews and lockdowns across the states…Small Caps outperformed and Dow lagged…

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    The Dow once again tested 30K and as hard as the algos tried, it tumbled to close below 30K…

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    Small Caps surge today took them to their highest relative to Nasdaq 100 since June…

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    Source: Bloomberg

    FANG stocks were bid off the opening lows but faded after Europe closed…

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    Source: Bloomberg

    TSLA had another epic day after collapsing in the pre-market, it was panic-bid all day – up 10% from the opening lows…

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    A lot of malarkey in Energy stocks today, ripped 4% higher at the open (3rd big opening squeeze in a row)…

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    Source: Bloomberg

    Tail risk protection is bid…

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    Source: Bloomberg

    And vol of vol (VVIX) is decoupling higher from VIX…

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    Source: Bloomberg

    A super strong 30Y auction helped extend the gains in bond-land today, with 30Y now down around 10bps on the week…

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    Source: Bloomberg

    30Y yields fell to their lowest in two weeks…

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    Source: Bloomberg

    The dollar was choppy around the ECB statement, but ended lower as EURUSD strengthened in seeming disappointment at Lagarde’s QE increase…

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    Source: Bloomberg

    Even as the dollar faded, so did Yuan…

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    Source: Bloomberg

    Yuan trading volume has exploded (the second-highest in data going back to 2014) as Bloomberg suggests one factor could be the looming reduction of yuan market-making banks: players will be under pressure to ramp up trading volumes to improve their year-end assessments.

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    Source: Bloomberg

    Bitcoin was modestly lower on the day, bouncing back again after trading below $18000…

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    Source: Bloomberg

    Gold managed to hold on to very small gains, after pump’n’dump-ing around the US cash equity open…

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    Brent Crude traded above $50 today for the first time since March and WTI spiked above $47.50 (but slipped back below $47 after settlement)…

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    Copper joined crude in the party…

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    Lifting Bloomberg’s Commodity Spot Index to 6 year highs (as The ECB adds to its ‘highly successful’ QE bond purchase scheme)…

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    Source: Bloomberg

    Finally, this whole charade has been one massive short-squeeze – the largest in history by far…

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    Source: Bloomberg

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Dec 09

Today’s News 9th December 2020

  • Whitehead: Invasion Of The Body Snatchers – Psychological Warfare Disguised As A Pandemic Threat
    Whitehead: Invasion Of The Body Snatchers – Psychological Warfare Disguised As A Pandemic Threat

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 12/09/2020 – 00:05

    Authored by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    “Look! You fools! You’re in danger! Can’t you see? They’re after you! They’re after all of us! Our wives…our children…they’re here already! You’re next!”

    – Dr. Miles Bennell, Invasion of the Body Snatchers (1956)

    It’s like Invasion of the Body Snatchers all over again.

    The nation is being overtaken by an alien threat that invades bodies, alters minds, and transforms freedom-loving people into a mindless, compliant, conforming mob intolerant of anyone who dares to be different, let alone think for themselves.

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    However, while Body Snatchers—the chilling 1956 film directed by Don Siegel—blames its woes on seed pods from outerspace, the seismic societal shift taking place in America owes less to biological warfare reliant on the COVID-19 virus than it does to psychological warfare disguised as a pandemic threat.

    As science writer David Robson explains:

    Fears of contagion lead us to become more conformist and tribalistic, and less accepting of eccentricity. Our moral judgements become harsher and our social attitudes more conservative when considering issues such as immigration or sexual freedom and equality. Daily reminders of disease may even sway our political affiliations… Various experiments have shown that we become more conformist and respectful of convention when we feel the threat of a disease… the evocative images of a pandemic led [participants in an experiment] to value conformity and obedience over eccentricity or rebellion.

    This is how you persuade a populace to voluntarily march in lockstep with a police state and police themselves (and each other): by ratcheting up the fear-factor, meted out one carefully calibrated crisis at a time, and teaching them to distrust any who diverge from the norm.

    This is not a new experiment in mind control.

    The powers-that-be have been pushing our buttons and herding us along like so much cattle since World War II, at least, starting with the Japanese attacks on Pearl Harbor, which not only propelled the U.S. into World War II but also unified the American people in their opposition to a common enemy.

    That fear of attack by foreign threats, conveniently torqued by the growing military industrial complex, in turn gave rise to the Cold War era’s “Red Scare.” Promulgated through government propaganda, paranoia and manipulation, anti-Communist sentiments boiled over into a mass hysteria that viewed anyone and everyone as suspect: your friends, the next-door neighbor, even your family members could be a Communist subversive.

    This hysteria, which culminated in hearings before the House Un-American Activities Committee, where hundreds of Americans were called before Congress to testify about their so-called Communist affiliations and intimidated into making false confessions, also paved the way for the rise of an all-knowing, all-seeing governmental surveillance state.

    The 9/11 attacks followed a similar script: a foreign invasion mounts an attack on an unsuspecting nation, the people unite in solidarity against a common foe, and the government gains greater war-time powers (read: surveillance powers) that, conveniently enough, become permanent once the threat has passed.

    The government’s scripted response to the COVID-19 pandemic has been predictably consistent: once again, in order to fight this so-called “foreign” foe, the government insists it needs even greater surveillance powers.

    As we’ve seen since 9/11 and more recently with the COVID lockdowns, those in power have always had a penchant for enacting extreme measures to combat perceived threats. However, unlike the modern America police state, the American government circa the 1950s did not have at its disposal the arsenal of invasive technologies that are such an intrinsic part of our modern surveillance state.

    Today, we are watched and tracked 24/7; data is collected on us at an alarming rate by governmental and corporate entities; and with the help of powerful computer programs, American domestic intelligence agencies sweep our websites, listen in on our telephone calls and read our text messages at will.

    Now with the COVID pandemic and its offshoots such as contact tracing and immunity passports, the governmental landscape is even more invasive.

    Yet no matter the threat, the underlying principle remains the same: can we hold onto our basic freedoms and avoid succumbing to the soul-sucking dredge of conformity that threatens our very humanity?

    This conundrum is at the heart of the 1956 classic Invasion of the Body Snatchers, which was based on a 1954 science fiction novel by Jack Finney (and later remade into an equally chilling 1978 film by Philip Kaufman).

    Body Snatchers not only captured the ideology and politics of its post-war era but remains timely and relevant as it relates to the worries that plague us today. Filmed with only seven days of rehearsal and 23 days of actual shooting, Body Snatchers is considered one of the great science fiction classics.

    Body Snatchers is set in a small California town which has been infiltrated by mysterious pods from outer space that replicate and take the place of humans who then become conforming non-individuals. Miles Bennell, the main character, is a local doctor who resists the invaders and their attempts to erase humanity from the face of the earth.

    At the very least, the film conveys a double meaning, serving as both a mirror of a particular moment in history and a compass pointing to a growing societal illness. Following World War II with the emerging military empire, the atomic bomb and the Korean War, Americans were confused and neurotically preoccupied with domestic threats, the polio pandemic and international political events, not much different from today’s populace preoccupied with domestic and international political drama, terrorism and the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Yet Siegel’s film delves beneath the surface to confront an even more sinister threat: the dehumanization of individuals and the horrifying possibility that humanity could become infused as part of the societal machine.

    Central to the film is one key speech delivered by Bennell while hiding from the aliens:

    In my practice, I see how people have allowed their humanity to drain away…only it happens slowly instead of all at once. They didn’t seem to mind…. All of us, a little bit. We harden our hearts…grow callous…only when we have to fight to stay human do we realize how precious it is.

    As Siegel makes clear, it is not Communists or terrorists or even viral pandemics that threaten our well-being. The real enemy is invasive governmental measures—something we now see happening across the country—and, thus, totalitarian conformity. And resistance must be against all government measures that threaten our civil liberties and against all kinds of conformity, no matter the shape, size or color of the package it comes in.

    When all is said and done, however, the real threat to freedom (in the fictional world of Body Snatchers and in our present-day America) is posed by an establishment—be it governmental, corporate or societal—that is hostile to individuality and those who dare to challenge the status quo.

    The mob hysteria, sense of paranoia, fascist police and the witch hunt atmosphere of the film mirror the ills of a 1950s America that is frighteningly applicable to present American society.

    Acknowledging that Body Snatchers portrayed the conflict between individuals and varied forms of mindless authority, Siegel stated, “I think the world is populated by pods and I wanted to show them.” He explained:

    People are pods. Many of my associates are certainly pods. They have no feelings. They exist, breathe, sleep. To be a pod means that you have no passion, no anger, the spark has left you…of course, there’s a very strong case for being a pod. These pods, who get rid of pain, ill-health and mental disturbances are, in a sense, doing good. It happens to leave you in a very dull world but that, by the way, is the world that most of us live in. It’s the same as people who welcome going into the army or prison. There’s regimentation, a lack of having to make up your mind, face decisions…. People are becoming vegetables. I don’t know what the answer is except an awareness of it.

    All of the threats to freedom documented in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People came about because “we the people” stopped thinking for ourselves and relinquished control over our lives and our country to government operatives who care only for money and power.

    While the specific game plan for turning things around is complicated by a police state that wants to keep us at a disadvantage, the solution is relatively simple: Don’t be a pod person. Pay attention. Question everything. Dare to be different. Don’t follow the mob. Don’t let yourself become numb to the world around you. Be compassionate. Be humane. Most of all, think for yourself.

  • America's Highest Paid Hooker Sues Nevada To Reopen Brothels 
    America's Highest Paid Hooker Sues Nevada To Reopen Brothels 

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 12/08/2020 – 23:45

    Alice Little, a legal sex worker in Nevada and quite possibly the highest-paid one in the US, is suing the state of Nevada to reopen its brothels, according to Yahoo Life. 

    Little is an employee at the BunnyRanch Legal Nevada Brothel in Mound House, Nevada. The brothel has been closed since Mar. 17, despite other “close contact” businesses reopening. 

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    Little recently filed a complaint and motion for a preliminary injunction against Nevada’s Gov. Steve Sisolak in the Third Judicial District Court in Lyon County to reopen brothels. She cites unstated damages for her lost wages and seeks the right for her and other licensed sex workers to “ply their legal trade” at private locations. 

    The lawsuit said Sisolak has “without any rational basis, decided to single out brothels.” 

    Last month, a Nevada court ordered the state’s attorney general to respond to Little’s legal action within 30 days.

    “It would be understandable if the governor kept all close-contact businesses closed. But the fact that massage parlors, estheticians, salons, escort services and other non-essential businesses have been allowed to reopen lead me to believe that the governor’s decision to keep brothels closed is just blatant discrimination against Nevada’s legal sex workers,” Little said in a press release.

    “I just can’t let the governor arbitrarily decimate the livelihoods of an entire class of hard-working women. That’s why I decided to take legal action.”

    Little is drumming up her legal battle with the state. She launched a GoFundMe campaign last month that has so far raised $8,404 for her legal defense. 

    The high-rolling hooker said her lawsuit has been “self-funded up to this point, and now I’m asking for your help to allow me to pursue this case all the way through to a successful victory.” 

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    The Nevada Independent spoke with other sex workers who say the brothel shutdown is “discriminatory.” 

    Kiki Lover, an employee of the Sagebrush, told the local paper that Sisolak is “discriminating against sex workers,” adding that the industry’s collapse has forced many women out, and some are now homeless. 

    Little told Yahoo that the risk level of contracting COVID-19 is not that different from other services, such as a massage parlor. 

    In April, brothels were preparing to reopen, but eight or so months of closure, at the hands of the state government, has forced the industry into collapse. 

  • CJ Hopkins: Where's The Hitler?
    CJ Hopkins: Where's The Hitler?

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 12/08/2020 – 23:25

    Authored (mostly satirically) by CJ Hopkins via The Consent Factory,

    All right, that’s it. I’ve run out of patience. No more excuses. Where’s the Hitler?

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    Yes, you heard me. I’m talking to you. You respectable journalists and political pundits. You Intelligence officials and politicians. You fanatical liberals. You pseudo anti-fascists. All you members of the GloboCap “Resistance” who have been hysterically shrieking that “Trump is Hitler!” since he won the nomination back in 2016.

    Well, OK, it’s November 2020. The show is almost over. When do we get Hitler?

    No, do not tell me “any day now.” You’ve been telling us that for four straight years. Do we look like a bunch of gullible idiots that you can whip up into a four-year frenzy of mindless hatred and paranoia by screaming “Hitler!” over and over, and then not produce an actual Hitler?

    Well, we’re not. We remember what you said. You promised us Hitler, and we want Hitler, or at least a decent facsimile of Hitler.

    And don’t even think of trying to pretend that you didn’t actually promise us Hitler.

    You did. You want me to prove it? OK.

    Remember back in 2016, when The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, The Guardian, the Washington Post, The Inquirer, and other such “leading respectable broadsheets,” and online magazines like Mother Jones, Forward, Slate, Salon, Vox, Alternet, and countless others, warned that Trump was sending secret anti-Semitic “dog whistle” signals to his underground army of Nazi terrorists by talking about “international banks,” “global elites,” the “political establishment,” and even “corporations” and “lobbyists” … all of which was supposedly code for “the Jews,” who he was going to exterminate if won the election?

    I do. I remember that, distinctly.

    How about after he won the election, when The Guardian reported that “white supremacy ha[d] triumphed!,” and The New York Times, NPR, Keith Olberman, and other verified news sources warned that America had descended into “racial Orwellianism,” or Zionist Anti-Semitism, or the “bottomless pit of fascism,” or whatever? Or when Michael Kinsley in the Washington Post confirmed that “Donald Trump is actually a fascist”?

    Do you remember all that? Because I certainly do.

    Remember Aaron Sorkin’s letter to his daughter warning her that millions of “Muslim-Americans, Mexican-Americans and African-Americans [were] shaking in their shoes” as they waited for Trump to round them all up and send them to the camps, along with the “Jewish Coastal Elites”?

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    And how about when Stern Magazine depicted Trump wrapped in the flag and heiling Hitler? Or when the Philadelphia Daily News also portayed him as Hitler on its cover?

    What about when the corporate media reported that Trump had called those tiki torch Nazis in Charlottesville “very fine people” (despite the fact that he demonstrably did not)? Or when they caught Trump calling somebody a “globalist”? (That episode was particularly disturbing to me, personally, as I had no idea that I was literally a Nazi until the corporate media and the ADL explained that talking about “global capitalism,” or “neoliberalism,” or, God help me, “banks,” was just Nazi codespeak for “Kill the Jews!”)

    Oh, and speaking of Nazi “dog whistles,” remember when the Department of Homeland Security embedded secret Nazi code in one of its official press releases? Or when that Jewish-Mexican-American law clerk signaled to Trump’s underground Nazi army that they had infiltrated the US Supreme Court, and thus the dreaded “Boogaloo” was probably imminent?

    And who could forget when The New York Times published a full-blown dystopian fantasy in which Trump, Putin, Marine Le Pen, the AfD, and other notorious “globalist”-hating Hitler-alikes secretly formed an Evil Axis (the “Alliance of Authoritarian and Reactionary States”), dissolved the European Union and NATO, declared international martial law, and ethnically cleansed the world of immigrants? Or when they ran this propaganda film, “If You’re Not Scared About Fascism in the U.S., You Should Be!”

    And the “emboldening”! I almost left out the “emboldening.” Surely, you remember when the corporate media reported that Trump was emboldening white-supremacist terrorism with his Hitlerian Tweets … as if homicidal racist psychopaths had been sitting around in their mother’s basements, semi-automatic rifles in one hand, smartphones tuned to Twitter in the other, just waiting to be “emboldened” by the president.

    Oh, and the “concentration camps.” You know, the ones that Biden and Harris personally flew down and liberated the morning after they won the election. The ones where they put the kids in cages and forced all the prisoners to drink out of toilets. I couldn’t forgive myself if I didn’t mention them.

    And those are just a few of the highlights.

    Look, the point is, you “Resistance” people promised us Hitler for four years straight, and now you’re acting like you just defeated Hitler, and, I’m sorry, but that is not going to cut it. We’re going to need some actual Hitler before we transition to the Brave New Normal, or we might start to … you know, doubt your credibility.

    I mean, come on. Lawsuits? Recounts? Audits? Angry tweets? Golf, for Christsakes? This is not remotely Hitlerian behavior. You people promised us an attempted coup, a Reichstag fire, Nazi militias occupying the halls of Congress, stadiums full of Sieg-heiling rednecks, white-supremacist terrorists terrorizing everyone … and now all we get is Rudy Giuliani sweating rivulets of hair dye, or something, on TV? All right, granted, that was pretty scary, but it’s not exactly Joseph Goebbels fanatically barking about “total war,” or legions of Hawaiian-shirt-wearing fascists goose-stepping up Pennsylvania Avenue.

    The way I see it, you people have got another four or five weeks to goad Donald Trump into going full-Hitler and staging a coup, or gratuitously mass-murdering the Jews, or somebody, or the public is going to feel … well, bamboozled, and insulted, and even a little angry. They are going to feel like you “Resistance” people regard them as a bunch of total morons that you can manipulate, over and over again, with blatantly ridiculous propaganda that anyone with half a brain could see through … some of which, frankly, has been downright offensive.

    Seriously, fascism, Hitler, the Holocaust … these are solemn, sensitive subjects. They’re not just convenient emotional buttons that you can press to whip folks into a frenzy of mindless paranoia and murderous hatred whenever you feel like demonizing some foreign leader or unauthorized president.

    The same goes for racism and anti-Semitism. These are real issues, which people care about. They’re not just glorified marketing buzz words that you can pull out of your bag of cheap tricks and slap onto your enemies like they don’t mean anything. If you spend four years accusing someone of literally being Adolf Hitler, or the resurrection of Adolf Hitler, and brainwash millions of credulous liberals into believing that America is on the brink of fascism, you can’t just suddenly say, “We were only kidding. We didn’t mean that he was actually Hitler, or that fascism was really on the rise.” People won’t stand for it. They’ll go ballistic. You’ll have some sort of revolt on your hands.

    Or, all right, on second thought, maybe not. Maybe you can get away with pointing at some billionaire ass clown and howling “Hitler!” over and over, on a daily basis, for years and years, without ever providing any actual evidence that the ass clown in question resembles Hitler, or has done anything comparable to Hitler, or is in any way remotely similar to Hitler. Why not? You successfully Hitlerized Corbyn, not to mention Saddam, Gaddafi, and Milošević, and a long list of other “threats to democracy.” You’ll probably get away with Hitlerizing Trump.

    After all, it appears you’ve convinced the public (or at least the vast majority of the public) that they are being attacked by an apocalyptic plague that causes mild to moderate flu-like symptoms (or, more commonly, no symptoms at all) in 95% of those infected and that over 99.7% survive, and thus we have to cancel constitutional rights, let government officials rule by decree, devastate the economy (or at least small businesses), have global corporations censor all dissent, force everyone to wear medical-looking masks, put whole societies under house arrest, psychologically terrorize children, and otherwise transform the planet into one big paranoid, totalitarian theme park.

    If you can get people to go along with that … well, they’ll probably go along with anything.

  • Tenants, Landlords Face Imminent Crisis As Pandemic Lifelines Expire 
    Tenants, Landlords Face Imminent Crisis As Pandemic Lifelines Expire 

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 12/08/2020 – 23:05

    January is going to be a mess. America’s small-time landlords, along with their tenants, are in trouble as safety nets are set to expire. Tenants haven’t paid rent in months, with a looming eviction moratorium expiring at the end of December. According to Reuters, the lack of rental income for landlords has also been troublesome, with many skipping mortgage payments, potentially resulting in a firesale of properties in the year ahead. 

    For 12 million Americans and their families – this Christmas will be their worst – as the extended unemployment benefits that have kept many of them afloat are set to expire later this month. Then on New Year’s Day, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s eviction moratorium expires, which could result in a massive wave of evictions in the first half of 2021.

    At the moment, $70 billion in unpaid back rent and utilities are set to come due, according to a new report via Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi. 

    Last month, Maryland utility companies began to terminate customers with overdue bills, many of which were unable to pay because of job loss due to the coronavirus downturn. 

    New research from the Aspen Institute warns 40 million people could be threatened with eviction over the coming months as the real economic crisis is only beginning. 

    According to Stacey Johnson-Cosby, president of the Kansas City Regional Housing Alliance, landlords are also in deep turmoil. She said more than 40% of the landlords surveyed in her coalition said they will have to sell their units because of the lack of rental income. 

    “They are sheltering our citizens free of charge, and there’s nothing we can do about it,” said Johnson-Cosby. “This is their retirement income.”

    She said small landlords are frightened to speak out about non-paying tenants because social justice warriors and their “Cancel Rent” groups have attacked landlords. 

    “What they don’t realize is that if they run us out and we fail, it will be private equity and Wall Street firms that buy up all our properties, just like they did with houses after the last foreclosure crash.”

    Reuters interviewed Clarence Hamer, who may have to sell his house in the coming months because his “downstairs tenant owes him nearly $50,000.” He owns a duplex in Brownsville, Brooklyn – and without those rental payments, Hamer has been unable to pay his mortgage. 

    “I don’t have any corporate backing or any other type of insurance,” said Hamer, a 46-year-old landlord who works for the city of New York. “All I have is my home, and it seems apparent that I’m going to lose it.”

    Hamer is not alone – millions of Americans are headed for a “dark winter” as they could be evicted or lose their homes in the coming months as government safety nets are set to expire. 

    Meanwhile, on Tuesday, stimulus talks quickly faded after it was reported that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell touted his own plan rather than a bipartisan compromise for a deal. 

    John Pollock, a Public Justice Center attorney and coordinator of the National Coalition for a Civil Right to Counsel, recently said January could bring a surge of eviction and homelessness,” unlike anything we have ever seen” before. 

  • Deflation Is Back In China As CPI Turns Negative For First Time Since The Financial Crisis
    Deflation Is Back In China As CPI Turns Negative For First Time Since The Financial Crisis

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 12/08/2020 – 22:50

    Yesterday, when discussing the biggest jump in Chinese FX reserves in 7 years we wondered if this was an indication that the PBOC was starting to lean against the surging yuan. Today, after the latest Chinese inflation data released moments ago, we are confident that it is only a matter of time before Beijing will once again aggressively intervene and/or devalue its currency.

    According to the National Bureau Of Statistics, in November China’s CPI unexpectedly tumbled to -0.5% Y/Y in November, below market expectations and the first year-over-year decline in consumer prices since the financial crisis. While rapid decline of food prices continued to be the main driver for lower headline CPI inflation, non-food inflation also edged down to -0.1% yoy from 0% yoy in October, which begs the question: how much of China’s now deflation is the result of the surging yuan, and how much longer will Beijing tolerate the soaring currency (or, said otherwise, the plunging dollar). On the flip side, PPI inflation was at -1.5% yoy in November, which while still negative (the last positive PPI print was in January), was less negative than October as inflationary pressures increased along with the strong expansion of industrial activity.

    Here are the key numbers:

    • CPI: -0.5% yoy in November, exp. +0.0%; down from October’s +0.5% yoy.
    • Food CPI: -2% yoy in November; October: +2.2% yoy.
    • Non-food CPI: -0.1% yoy in November; October: +0.0% yoy.
    • PPI: -1.5% yoy in November. exp. -1.8% yoy; up from October’s -2.1% yoy.

     

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    Some more details: in year-on-year terms, food inflation went down to -2.0% yoy in November from +2.2% yoy in October, largely because pork prices tumbled 12.5% on a year-over-year basis, lowering year-over-year CPI inflation by 0.6pp.

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    Egg prices also plunged, dropping 17.1% yoy, and lowering the headline CPI by another 0.1pp. Fresh vegetable prices rose albeit at a slower pace: Inflation in fresh vegetables was +8.6% yoy in November (vs 16.7% yoy in October), adding 0.2pp to headline CPI inflation.

    Non-food CPI inflation edged down to -0.1% yoy in November, from 0.0% in October. Fuel costs fell further by 17.6% yoy, vs -17.2% yoy in October. Core inflation (headline CPI excluding food and energy) was unchanged at +0.5% yoy in November.

    On the other side, PPI inflation rose modestly and was at -1.5% Y/Y in November, less negative than October. In month-over-month annualized terms, PPI rose by 5.6%, vs -1% in October. Price declines narrowed for producer goods (-1.8% yoy vs -2.7% yoy in October) but price decline for consumer goods widened (-0.8% yoy in November, vs -0.5% yoy in October) mainly on lower food and clothing price inflation. By major industry, PPI inflation increased on a year-over-year basis in most sub-industries except food processing and telecom industries.

    According to Goldman, headline CPI inflation may remain at low levels in the coming months on falling food prices and a high base while PPI inflation could rise further as inflationary pressures continue to build in the industrial sector.

    A bigger problem for China is that while PPI may be rising, it’s only a function of higher commodity prices and industrial strength on the back of massive credit injections; meanwhile consumer deflation is starting to emerge as a major concern for a country that has not had a negative CPI print since 2009.

    One wonders how long Beijing will allow this, and how long will Chinese rates remain as high as they are, before the Politburo capitulates and realize it needs to aggressively devalued its soaring currency (and offset the tumbling dollar) if it hopes to keep deflation in check.

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    It may even have to decide between keeping interest rates highs, and thus yields on Chinese bonds attractive for foreign investors (as a reminder, everyone knows by now that one of Beijing’s top priorities is to have a steady source of offshore capital entering the negative current account nation), or finally conceding it needs to cut rates in order to let some of the air in the yuan out.

  • Fireworks, Batteries And Liquid Ethanol Among Dangerous Goods Lost At Sea From Apus Containership
    Fireworks, Batteries And Liquid Ethanol Among Dangerous Goods Lost At Sea From Apus Containership

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 12/08/2020 – 22:45

    From Freight Waves

    Fireworks, batteries and liquid ethanol were inside the 64 dangerous goods containers that went overboard with more than 1,750 others from the ONE Apus last week, whose plight we discussed over the weekend. None of the containers has been sighted.

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    In one of the single worst cases of container losses on record, 1,816 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) were lost overboard after the year-old Apus reportedly encountered severe weather at about 11:15 p.m. Nov. 30 en route from Yantian, China, to the Port of Long Beach in California, the vessel’s owner, Chidori Ship Holding, and manager, NYK Shipmanagement, said. 

    Of the 64 containers identified as carrying dangerous goods, 54 held fireworks, eight had batteries and two contained liquid ethanol, according to a ONE Apus information center update Monday. 

    The update said Chidori and NYK Shipmanagement are working with the U.S. Coast Guard’s Joint Rescue Coordination Center in Honolulu, which “has advised that there have not been sightings of any containers” as of yet. 

    After the accident, the Apus turned back for Asia. The information center update said the container ship is “cautiously proceeding to the Port of Kobe, Japan,” and has an estimated berthing time of noon Tuesday (10 p.m. EST Monday).

    “Once berthed, it’s expected to take some time to offload the dislodged containers that remain on board,” the announcement said. “Then a thorough assessment will be made on the exact number and type of containers that have been lost or damaged.”

    Ownership of the goods lost has not been revealed and thus it’s not known whether some New Year’s Eve celebrations will be dimmer with 54 U.S.-bound containers of fireworks lost at sea.  Henry Byers, FreightWaves’ maritime market expert, said the top importers using ONE as their ocean carrier into Long Beach the past 30 days were Flexport International, MOL Consolidation, Topocean Consolidation, UPS Ocean Freight Services, DHL Global Forwarding, Kuehne + Nagel and C.H. Robinson. 

    Rounding out the top 20 are Hecny Transportation, Rimports, Daniel M. Friedman & Associates, Apex Maritime, Hankook Tire America, Yusen Logistics, Ameziel, BDP Transport, Kintetsu World Express, Penguin Random House, Expeditors International, Harman International Industries and R.T. Express International.

    Still other ONE customers through Long Beach are Living Spaces Furniture, APL Logistics, Signal Products, Wilson Sporting Goods, Sumitomo Rubber North America, Lexmark Juarez Distribution Center, Guardian Technologies, Konica Minolta Business Solutions and Hasbro. 

    Built in only 2019, the ONE Apus is 364 meters long and 51 meters wide and has a carrying capacity of 14,052 TEUs. 

    According to the World Shipping Council, container losses actually are few and far between. In fact, a WSC report issued in July said an average of only 1,382 containers were lost at sea per year between 2008 and 2019.

    For many in the maritime industry, the Apus incident has brought to mind the June 2013 sinking of the MOL Comfort. The 7,041-TEU container ship cracked in half during an Arabian Sea storm. While efforts were made to tow the two halves of the ship to port, both eventually sank.

  • ECB Preview: Here Comes Another €500 Billion In QE
    ECB Preview: Here Comes Another €500 Billion In QE

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 12/08/2020 – 22:25

    Last March, the ECB’s then-brand new boss Christine Lagarde sparked a mini crisis when quipped that it was not the job of the European Central Bank to narrow the gap in borrowing costs between the eurozone’s stronger and weaker members. The resulting bond selloff and market mess prompted the ECB’s chief economist Philip Lane to secretly call some of the largest asset managers to calm them that Lagarde had no idea what she was talking about and to stop selling.

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    Nine months on, investors have gone all-in on bets that the ECB boss has changed her mind, and is here “to close spreads” after all.

    Ahead of the central bank’s next policy meeting tomorrow, the FT notes that spreads in the eurozone’s periphery have been squeezed by relentless demand for riskier bonds. The buying helped push Portugal’s 10-year yield below zero for the first time. Spain is not far behind, and Italy — the last big eurozone market to offer a significant positive yield over a decade — has seen its spread closing in on its lowest since the region’s debt crisis a decade ago.

    With the ECB expected to expand its €1.35tn emergency asset purchase program by (at least) another €500bn tomorrow, investors are increasingly relaxed about holding peripheral bonds despite the explosion in debt levels driven by the pandemic.

    Are they right? Courtesy of NewSquawk, here is a breakdown of what to expect tomorrow:

    • ECB policy announcement due Thursday 10th December; rate decision at 12:45GMT/07:45EST, press conference 13:30GMT/08:30EST
    • PEPP and TLTRO set to be tweaked, rates, PSPP and tiering expected to be left untouched
    • The upcoming release will also be accompanied by the latest round of staff economic projections

    OVERVIEW: After telegraphing in October that further stimulus would be unveiled at the upcoming meeting, the consensus looks for a €500bln addition to the PEPP programme and 6-month extension until December 2021 (a longer extension has been speculated by some), while a majority of economists expect no change to its PSPP. Elsewhere, market participants expect policymakers to tweak the parameters of the Bank’s TLTROs. Rates are set to be left unchanged, whilst an adjustment to the tiering multiplier is not expected this time around. Accompanying economic projections are set to see a downgrade to the near-term inflation outlook, but greater focus could be placed on the initial 2023 forecast. For growth, any near-term optimism on vaccines could be tempered by how the ECB addresses the yet to-be passed recovery fund and disappointing Q4 2020 outturn.

    PRIOR MEETING: As expected, policymakers opted to stand pat on policy settings, with rates and bond-buying operations held at current levels. The main takeaway from the initial announcement was the introduction of a new paragraph in the statement noting that risks to the economic outlook were “clearly tilted to the downside” and the new round of Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections in December “will allow a thorough reassessment of the economic outlook and the balance of risks.” Additionally, “on the basis of this updated assessment, the Governing Council will recalibrate its instruments, as appropriate, to respond to the unfolding situation.” In terms of the policy measures set to be unveiled in the final meeting of 2020, President Lagarde did not delve into specifics. Despite policymakers acknowledging the bleak outlook for the region, the ECB chief stated that no discussion was held on unveiling measures at the October meeting with policymakers wanting to gather further evidence on the economic impact of the second wave of COVID across the Eurozone.

    RECENT DATA: Q3 Eurozone GDP was confirmed as showing a 12.5% Q/Q expansion from Q2 with the Y/Y figure printing a 4.3% contraction. On the inflation front, the Y/Y flash CPI print for November remained at -0.3%, with core CPI holding steady at 0.4%. Survey data has highlighted the differing fortunes of the services and manufacturing sectors with the EZ-wide Markit PMI report showing the former in contractionary territory and the latter in expansionary, the broader composite reading fell to 45.1 in November from 50.0 in October. Markit noted, that while the EZ economy has slipped back into a downturn, the decline is of a far smaller magnitude than seen in the spring. The unemployment rate in the Eurozone for October came in at 8.3%, with the figure obscured by regional employment support schemes.

    RECENT COMMUNICATIONS: Beyond the clear signposting at the October meeting by Christine Lagarde that stimulus is set to be unveiled in December, the ECB President has reaffirmed that all options are on the table. That said, Lagarde (Nov 11th) talked up the efficacy of PEPP and TLTROs throughout the pandemic, suggesting that they will “likely remain the main tools for adjustment”. Additionally, the central banker emphasised that “what matters is not only the level of financing conditions but the duration of policy support, too”, suggesting that any expansion to the PEPP could also be met with an extension from the current endpoint of end-June 2021. Chief Economist Lane – who many view as the thought-leader at the ECB –has echoed Lagarde’s views on the efficacy of PEPP and TLTROs, whilst also noting that it is essential that the macroeconomic recovery is not derailed by a premature steepening of the yield curve. Germany’s Schnabel, one of the more vocal members of the Governing Council, recently remarked that the ECB is not obliged to do what the market expects it to, before going on to state that a 12-month extension to PEPP is one option being considered, and that the ECB could also look at a longer duration or more favorable rate for TLTROs. Elsewhere, on vaccines, Ireland’s Makhlouf says the ECB will have to evaluate the emergence of the COVID-19 vaccine, suggesting that no firm view on the matter is currently held by the Governing Council at this stage; however, Vice President de Guindos noted that vaccine developments will be taken into account at the meeting. On the prospects for a further dive into negative territory for the deposit rate, Spain’s de Cos refused to rule out a rate reduction, but acknowledged that rates were close to the lower bound, Austria’s Holzmann has stated that such a move would not have an effect. In terms of lesser talked about measures the Bank could take, outgoing Hawk Mersch recently pushed-back on the prospect of the ECB expanding its purchase remit to include “fallen angels”

    RATES: From a rates perspective, consensus looks for the Bank to stand pat on the deposit, main refi and marginal lending rates of -0.5%, 0.0% and 0.25% respectively. A recent research piece from the Bank noted that the reversal rate for the deposit rate stands around -1%, suggesting there is around 50bps of space until further rate reductions could become counterproductive. That said, whilst all options are said to be on the table (and it might help stem some of the recent EUR appreciation), commentary from central bank officials has done little to suggest that rate tweaks are on the cards. Additionally, when faced with the option of lowering the deposit rate in March as the crisis was unfolding, policymakers refrained from doing so. As a guide: markets currently assign a 13.5% chance of a 10bps cut to the deposit rate at the upcoming meeting and around a 55% probability by the end of next year.

    BALANCE SHEET: With the balance sheet seen as the preferred easing tool for the Governing Council, focus remains on any adjustments to its bond-buying operations. Its PEPP currently has an envelope of EUR 1.35trl and is set to run at least until the end of June 2021, whilst its regular Asset Purchase Programme (of which the Public Sector Purchase Programme is a component) runs at a monthly pace of EUR 20bln together with the purchases under the additional EUR 120bln temporary envelope until the end of 2020. A Reuters survey of economists stated that expectations are for a EUR 500bln addition to the PEPP programme and 6-month extension until December 2021. UBS also expects the ECB to extend its commitment to reinvesting the principal of maturing securities purchased under PEPP by another year, from currently end-2022 to end-2023. Note, 33 of 44 surveyed do not think that the ECB will expand the PSPP, according to the survey. Going back to PEPP, expectations have continued to gather steam since the October meeting, and it remains to be seen if policymakers could trigger a “dovish surprise” on this front. Policymakers could opt to increase the PEPP by more than EUR 500bln, however, in recent weeks policymakers have placed greater emphasis on reassuring markets about the duration of its support. Accordingly, ECB’s Schnabel has touted the possibility of a 12-month (consensus looks for 6-month) extension to PEPP. Additionally, the prospect of including “fallen angels” into its Corporate Sector Purchase Programme (CSPP) lingers around the bank, however, this idea recently received pushback from outgoing hawk Mersch.

    TLTROs: Given recent rhetoric from policymakers on the efficacy of Targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs), a tweaking of its current operations has also formed part of the consensus ahead of the meeting. As it stands, the facility has just two auctions left (10th December, and 18th March 2021) with current borrowing conditions running with a rate of -0.5% for three years or as low as -1% for banks that reach certain lending requirements. The Reuters survey found that 37 of the 48 economists surveyed expect the ECB to change the terms of its TLTROs, however, there are differing views on how this will be carried out. SocGen highlights four potential ways in which the ECB could act on this front, 1) it could go for a longer maturity, or signal continuous TLTROs, 2) it could lower the threshold for the best available rate, 3) lower the best interest rate below -1%, and 4) include new loan types such as mortgage lending. SocGen themselves predict “largely unchanged conditions” with “around five quarterly operations until March 2022, for corporate lending only, 3-year loans at -1% at best, lending threshold for best rate at 0%”.

    TIERING: Another option for the ECB could be an adjustment to the existing tiering multiplier of six (exempt from negative interest rates) amid rising levels of excess liquidity. However, a complicating factor is that a large part of the recent increase in excess liquidity is attributed to the ECB’s TLTRO-III facility. Therefore, an increase in the tiering multiplier could undermine policymaker’s efforts to get banks to lend to the corporate sector. One option, UBS says, would be for the ECB to exempt funds from TLTRO-III, in which case it could raise the tiering multiplier to nine from six in order to keep banks’ deposit costs constant. However, UBS suggests that even this could prove to be too generous given the lending incentives in the TLTRO scheme that already reduce net deposit costs. As such, the Swiss bank looks for no adjustment on this front in December. Additionally, SGH Macro notes that an increase in the multiplier would be unlikely to occur unless met with an accompanying deposit rate cut.

    EUR: The recent appreciation of the EUR which has seen EUR/USD breach 1.20 and trade at levels not seen since 2018, has raised questions as to whether or not the ECB will attempt to talk down the currency. Note, at the September meeting after EUR/USD breached 1.20, President Lagarde noted that “the ECB does not target an FX level but will continue to monitor developments, including the EUR”. Morgan Stanley, however, suggests that we are not at levels that will concern policymakers given that the move in EUR/USD is more of a by-product of USD weakness, rather than EUR strength. In fact, the trade-weighted Euro is “a little weaker than in the summer,” the bank notes. As such, the EUR may prove to not be a major feature of the upcoming meeting.

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    ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS: Please see below for the September Staff Economic Projections: Inflation: 2020 +0.3% (unch), 2021 +1.0% (prev. 0.8%), 2022 +1.3% (unch) GDP: 2020 -8.0% (prev. -8.7%), 2021 +5.0% (prev. +5.0%), 2022 +3.2% (prev. +3.3%) This time around, from a growth perspective, despite a potentially disappointing Q4 outturn, better than expected growth in Q3 should see the ECB revise its 2020 estimate upwards to -7.2% from -8.0%, according to UBS. For 2021, despite the positive COVID vaccine updates, the fallout from Q4 2020 should prompt just a modest upgrade of its forecast to 5.0% from 5.5%, albeit this is largely dependent on how the ECB factors in the (yet-to-be passed) recovery fund. For 2022 and 2023, the Swiss bank pencils in growth of 3.9% and 1.9% respectively. On the inflation front, UBS expects the 2020 reading to be revised lower to 0.2% given softer prints in recent months relative to ECB expectations, whilst the better growth environment should offset any drag from softer oil prices in 2021 and 2022, leaving them unchanged at 1.0% and 1.3%. Of potentially greater interest will be the initial 2023 estimate, which UBS expects to remain below the pre-COVID inflation trend of 1.6% and therefore warrant additional stimulus.

    STRATEGIC REVIEW: One issue lingering at the Bank is its ongoing strategic review. The review has been delayed by the pandemic with its findings now not due to be released until September 2021. However, on the 30th September, President Lagarde delivered a speech in which she highlighted some preliminary considerations for the review. Lagarde noted that the ECB would be considering whether to depart from its current inflation target of “below, but close to 2%” and move towards a more “symmetric” target that would tolerate overshooting the 2% threshold. Ahead of the October meeting, Morgan Stanley suggested that accelerating the release of the outcome of the review could amount to another policy option for the Bank. However, MS noted that given the current H2 2021 timeframe, it seems implausible that the findings could be released in the near-term, particularly given reports of differing views on the Governing Council, which will make fostering consensus a more difficult task.

    * * *

    Finally, here is the traditional scenario matrix analysis from ING Economics, which as usual should be rather useful for FX traders hoping to gauge how to trade the Euro based on what Lagarde unveils tomorrow.

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  • 56% Of Americans Say They Would Live In A Tiny Home
    56% Of Americans Say They Would Live In A Tiny Home

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 12/08/2020 – 22:05

    Although the micro home movement isn’t necessarily new, many have put tiny homes on their radar since COVID-19. Whether it’s a weekend escape from city living, or even a tiny backyard office, these dwellings have seen a recent boom in popularity. IPX 1031 recently did an extended analysis of the sector which is presented below, but here is a summary of what they found:

    • 56% of Americans say they would live in a tiny home. 86% of first-time home buyers would consider a tiny home for their first home.
    • 72% of home buyers would consider buying a tiny home as an investment property. 
    • Most appealing factors of tiny home living: 1. Affordability 2. Efficiency 3. Eco-friendliness 4. Minimalist lifestyle 5. The ability to downsize.
    • Most desired tiny home amenities: 1. Heating/AC 2. Kitchen space 3. Designated bedroom 4. Laundry 5. Outdoor space.
    • 53% of Americans can afford the median price for a starter home ($233,400) vs. 79% of Americans can afford the median price of a tiny home ($30,000-$60,000).
    • Top states for tiny homes: 1. Vermont 2. New Hampshire 3. Maine 4. Wyoming 5. Washington 6. Idaho 7. Montana 8. Oregon 9. Rhode Island 10. Alaska.

    Below is the full survey report from IPX 1031:

    In order to get more insight on tiny living, we surveyed 2,000 Americans across the country to find out how likely they would be to live in a tiny home and what amenities they would like to have in a tiny home. We also analyzed Google search volume to determine where tiny homes are most popular around the country.

    Tiny Home Lifestyle

    Living in a tiny home is certainly an adjustment that isn’t right for every lifestyle, but more than half of respondents say they would consider living in one. Unique factors such as affordability (65%), efficiency (57%), eco-friendliness (48%) and the ability to live a minimal lifestyle (44%) are among the top reasons why respondents say they would like to live in a tiny home.

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    It’s also interesting to note that among those who have never owned a home, 86% say they would consider buying a tiny home for their first home.

    The Ideal Tiny Home

    Considering that most tiny homes are 400 square feet or less, many can be built on wheels, which allow homeowners to live a mobile lifestyle. According to respondents, 54% would prefer their tiny home to be mobile and a majority (54%) would prefer that their home is under 400 square feet.

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    With such a small amount of living space, it’s no surprise that the ideal number of people to live in a tiny home is two. In terms of amenities, heating/AC (60%), kitchen space (58%), designated bedroom (48%), laundry (43%) and outdoor space with a view (42%) are the most desired and “must haves,” according to respondents.

    Tiny Home Budget

    The price to purchase or build a tiny home can vary and depends on a number of factors. Most tiny homes cost between $30,000 to $60,000 while the median price for a starter home is $233,400, according to the National Association of Realtors. Exactly half of respondents say they would spend less than $40,000 on a tiny home and 79% say they would be able to buy or finance a tiny home rather than a traditional starter home.

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    Where Are Tiny Homes Most Popular?

    When most people think of tiny homes, images of a secluded lot in the woods or a home nestled near a lake come to mind. We were curious to see where tiny homes are the most popular, so we analyzed Google search volume for more than 1,300 terms and keywords related to tiny homes.

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    The results show that tiny homes have seen the most interest in rural states such as Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Wyoming and Washington. Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio and New York showed the least interest in searches for tiny homes.

    Tiny Home Investment Property

    With a low cost to build and maintain, tiny homes could bring big profits for property investors. According to respondents, 72% would consider buying a tiny home to serve as an investment property. Among those, 63% say they would rent out their tiny home as a long-term rental while 37% say they would rent their tiny home as a short-term rental. On average, respondents say their ideal monthly rent would be set at $900 per month for a long-term rental and $145 per night for a short-term rental.

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    Tiny Office

    With many Americans adapting to remote work or working from home, the concept of a tiny office (or a “backyard office”) is an appealing alternative to working inside a home office, kitchen or living room. In fact, more than half (54%) say they would buy a tiny office and 62% of remote workers would consider buying one. Ideally, more than a quarter of respondents say they would spend less than $8,000 on a tiny backyard office.

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    With many Americans adapting to remote work or working from home, the concept of a tiny office (or a “backyard office”) is an appealing alternative to working inside a home office, kitchen or living room. In fact, more than half (54%) say they would buy a tiny office and 62% of remote workers would consider buying one. Ideally, more than a quarter of respondents say they would spend less than $8,000 on a tiny backyard office.

  • "This Is Astounding": China Is Snapping Up Most Of The World's "Missing" Barrels Of Oil
    "This Is Astounding": China Is Snapping Up Most Of The World's "Missing" Barrels Of Oil

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 12/08/2020 – 21:45

    In almost every oil cycle, the market is confronted with the problem of “missing barrels”, or the gap between the change in inventory implied by global supply-demand balances on the one hand and the observed change in inventory levels by commercial and government entities (adjusted for floating storage and oil in transit) on the other hand.

    As the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies writes in a report published today, based on IEA global oil balances, the surplus during the first three quarters of 2020 averaged around 4.4 mb/d, with the surplus in the first half of 2020 reaching a record level of 7.6 mb/d due to the severity of the demand shock and the break-up of the OPEC+ agreement in March. This implies an inventory increase in H1 2020 of 1,390 million barrels (mbbls), before declining by 194.2 mbbls in Q3.

    According to the IEA, out of the total stockbuild in the first half of the year, total OECD stocks accounted for 344.3 mbbls or 25%  of the total increase, floating storage and oil in transit accounted for 105.3 mbbls or 8% of the total increase and the remaining 940.4 mbbls or 68% of the total  increase  to  balance  is  essentially  unaccounted  for  including  changes  in  non-reported  stocks  in OECD and non-OECD areas that the IEA labels as “Other & Miscellaneous to balance” (as shown in Figure 1).

    The volume of missing barrels in H1 2020, the OIES writes, “is the largest ever recorded gap between observed and implied stocks since at least 1990, being three times larger than previous historical downcycles such as in H1 1998 and more recently the H2 2018 downturn and nearly 10 times larger than the imbalance of H2 2008 in the aftermath of the global financial crisis.”  

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    The “missing barrels” problem can arise due to a number of factors. The most obvious reason is that models could be generating   “artificial barrels” by underestimating demand and overestimating supply. The severity of the oil crisis in 2020 due to the global  coronavirus pandemic led to the break of some key relationships (for instance between economic growth and oil demand) and models had to be calibrated to account for the severity of the shock (for instance, including indicators of the severity of restrictions across countries).

    Another factor is the coverage and quality of data on stocks. The reason for this is that very little publicly reported, accurate information exists for oil stocks outside of the United States. And yet the US oil stocks many not be an accurate reflection of the world situation. This observation increasingly holds as demand growth has shifted from OECD to non-OECD, especially given the key role that China is playing in global crude demand. In this latest cycle, China’s position as a key equilibrating mechanism was further highlighted as it absorbed surplus barrels from all over the world as it took advantage of relatively cheap crude to fill its large and growing storage capacity.

    To put this in perspective, OIES utilized crude inventory and fleet metrics data from Kpler and attempted to identify some of the missing barrels implied from IEA balances. As Figure 2 shows, even accounting for additional floating storage and oil in transit (+250.4 mbbls), as well as OECD and non-OECD crude stock changes excluding China (+85.2 mbbls), all of which are not previously reported by IEA, we are still  missing  597.8  mbbls or 64% of the total missing barrels in H1 2020. This issue becomes more complex in Q3 2020 for which the IEA balances imply a 194.2 mbbls deficit of which 171.3 mbbls are accounted for and 22.9 mbbls are missing. Kpler data, however, show a much larger draw of floating storage, suggesting one (or a combination) of three possibilities: the actual deficit is much larger than estimated by the IEA (by about 150 mbbls); there was a large build in non-OECD stocks, or the implied market surplus in H1 2020 was overestimated and carried over. Indeed, a large build in unaccountable stocks in Q2 2020 followed by a draw in Q3 2020 suggests that barrels were stored and drawn in places where they currently cannot be tracked. 

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    The China Conundrum

    The issue of “missing barrels” has long plagued Chinese data, but much like in the rest of the world, has become more pressing and  perplexing in 2020. Net crude imports in the year-to-October averaged 11.09 mb/d, rising from 2019 levels by over 1 mb/d and maintaining their 2019 growth rates. According to the OIES report, “this is astounding given that economic activity has been considerably weaker and runs have averaged 13.3 mb/d in the first ten months of 2020, growing by an impressive 0.47 mb/d, but still lower than the 0.82 mb/d increment seen over the same period last year.”

    Put simply: the data suggest China has overbought crude to put in storage.

    But the key question is, how much has gone into storage and perhaps more critically, how much is likely to come back out?

    In response to this rhetorical question, the Oxford Institute authors notes that assessing how much crude has gone into storage has become both an art and a science, given the limited official data. When looking at implied stockbuilds (i.e deducting crude used for refinery runs from the sum of domestic production and net imports), in the year-to-October, China has stored on average 1.6 mb/d, or a staggering 488 mbbls of crude.

    While it has been clear that large volumes of crude oil have headed to China, judging by port congestion at Chinese shores,  differentials and benchmarks, such volumes seem overstated as they would have likely led to tank tops earlier this year. According to OIES estimates, China had close to 1,100 mbbls of crude storage capacity at the end of 2019 (that’s over 1.1 billion and far, far more than Cushing and the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve). Assuming a roughly 60% utilization rate, crude stocks would have reached 650-680 mbbls. A build of an additional 500 mbbls, even when taking into account 250 mb of new tank space added over the year, would have overwhelmed China’s storage capacity leading to a slowdown in crude arrivals already earlier this year.

    And even though imports into China are slowing somewhat and storage utilization rates are likely at over 75% currently, there are signs of a recovery in crude buying for early 2021. It is therefore useful to look more closely at implied stockbuilds.

    First, many crude balances for China do not account for crude losses during the refining process or burnt at the field, which between 2000 and 2017, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, have averaged 0.30 mb/d8. In the five years prior to 2017, losses in refining increased to average 0.35 mb/d, so when deducting these losses, the implied stockbuild for the year-to-date falls to an average 1.3 mb/d, or just over 375 mbbls. While this is still a monumental build, it is more plausible.

    At the same time, Chinese demand could also be underestimated. China’s independent refiners have been infamous for tax evasion and especially between 2016 and 2018 were estimated to have underreported refining throughputs by 0.3-0.8 mb/d10. So historically, Chinese crude demand has been understated. The shift to new tax reporting practices in early 2018 have limited the independents’ ability to under report runs, although a number of them subsequently turned to misrepresenting their product output.  In  late  2020, following an announcement by Shandong officials that they will be levying a windfall tax this year, which is based on product output, the independents may be resorting to some under reporting again, although any such volumes are likely small, given that China’s demand is recovering slowly and product tanks are also estimated to be two-thirds full. Some  combination, therefore, of underestimated demand and crude in storage suggests that China could well be responsible for as much as half of the missing barrels and that these are indeed “real.”

    The next question is then, how likely are these barrels to be drawn down, and will they weigh on Chinese imports?

    Roughly a third of these volumes could have gone into bonded tanks. When looking at China’s crude imports, there is a discrepancy between waterborne flows as assessed by Kpler and arrivals reported by customs data, with assessed arrivals higher than customs data by 0.47 mb/d for the year-to-October (Figure  3). In previous years, the difference in assessed volumes and customs data  were smaller, mostly due to discrepancies between the timings of arrival and discharge, alongside some crude going into bonded tanks.

    This year, the discrepancy is more substantial and points to a large accumulation of crude in bonded tanks, which are not consistently counted as imports. Not only has the INE increased its storage capacity this year, with its tanks holding 34 mb of  crude at the end of October according to the exchange but sanctioned barrels may have also gone into bonded tanks. For example, in the year-to-October, Kpler estimates point to 0.15 mb/d of Iranian crude going to China (compared to 75,000 b/d recorded  by  customs)  as  well  as  0.21  mb/d  of  Venezuelan  crude  flowing  to  the  country  (although customs  have  reported  no  Venezuelan  crude  going  into  China). Theoretically, then, at the end of October, China had accumulated as much as 85 mb of Iranian and Venezuelan crude in bonded storage tanks over the course of the year, although some of these will have likely been drawn down by refiners, and if they have not been yet, they will be.

    But that still leaves over 200 mbbls of crude in storage, of which only a fraction is likely to return to the market. This is because these volumes have gone into both commercial and strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) tanks that are used as buffer, both for refiners’ forward cover and strategic reserves. China has a small number of designated SPR tanks of close to 400 mbbls, that are likely 300 mbbls full, with Argus estimating 32 mbbls of fills this year alone (see  Figure  4). At the same time, the government has been leasing out commercial tank space for its SPR programme, as the construction of dedicated SPR sites has been slow. But even with close to 150 mbbls of commercial tanks that are widely assumed to be leased out to the SPR, the SPR program only meets around 40 days of import cover (as 90 days at current import volumes would imply over 1,000 mbbls).

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    In addition, China’s refiners are mandated to hold 15 days of forward cover, which, for a system of close to 19 mb/d of  nameplate capacity, means almost 300 mbbls of forward cover. Indeed, part of the increase in import licences awarded to non-state refiners this year was intended for them to build up their crude stocks while prices remain at relatively low levels.

    In sum, when taking into account the crude requirements of storage tanks at the various ports and other commercial sites as well as pipeline fills, the crude requirement for China’s oil system is massive. As a result, most of the crude flowing into China this year has helped meet these needs. All in all, we estimate China  now  holds close to 1,000 mbbls in storage, which is roughly 90 days of its import needs,  with capacity by year end reaching 1,300-1,400 mbbls. The good news for markets is that only a small part of these barrels will be drawn down, but the bad news is that China’s future stockpiling needs are now shrinking.

    This is not to say that China’s crude imports will fall: with over 1 mb/d of new refining capacity starting up over the next two years, refiners will continue sourcing crude as refining throughputs continue to rise and  as  new  plants  require  operating  stocks. Moreover, additional infrastcuture including tanks and pipelines will need filling. But over the next two years, incremental demand for strategic stocks will slow, and crude imports will become more closely aligned with refiners’ needs.

    Conclusion

    The large accumulation of barrels in China suggests that “artificial” or “imaginary” barrels, as a result of imprecise measurement of global oil supply-demand balances, are not the only explanation to the missing barrels question. Indeed, even though China’s crude balances are riddled with inconsistencies, it is clear that the country has amassed large volumes of crude this year — potentially  close  to  400 mbbls — which have contributed both to the country’s strategic reserves and commercial forward cover. At the same time, Chinese demand may well be underestimated given refiners’ tax avoidance practices. So, as global supply and demand numbers get adjusted with the arrival of new information — which likely includes other Asian countries for which both demand and storage estimates are imperfect — the volume of missing barrels will shrink further, if indeed half have ended up in Chinese storage tanks and are unlikely to be released back into the market. In addition, some of the missing barrels are a result of unobservable barrels in important consuming centers and perhaps also stocks held at the distribution level and by final end consumers.

    As the Oxford researchers conclude, “the complexities of global crude balances, despite the important contribution made by new technologies, highlight the ongoing challenges facing OPEC+ in estimating how long it will take to rebalance the market. In addition to the uncertainties surrounding the demand outlook in these unprecedented times, assessing the extent and nature of buffers in the system has become more complicated.”

    The question is whether going forward, OPEC+ can afford to ignore non-OECD stocks? And if these stocks are being stored for  strategic purposes and the bulk of these stocks will not be released back into the market, does targeting non-OECD stocks really matter for oil policy purposes? Should we exclude years of elevated stocks from the averages or have these become main features of the new cycles and the adjustment process? As we enter 2021 in an environment of extremely depressed oil demand, these questions will become more pressing.

  • Janet Yellen: Too Dumb To Stop
    Janet Yellen: Too Dumb To Stop

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 12/08/2020 – 21:25

    Authored by Economic Prism’s MN Gordon, annotated by Acting-Man’s Pater Tenebrarum,

    Autographing Funny Money

    The United States Secretary of the Treasury bears a shameful job duty. They must place their autograph on the face of the Federal Reserve’s legal tender notes. Here, for the whole world to witness, the Treasury Secretary provides signature endorsement; their personal ratification of unconstitutional money.

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    Janet Yellen – first she got to print a lot of funny money, now she gets to autograph it. The Titanic meanwhile finds itself in uncharted waters and rumor has it that there may be icebergs lurking not too far from here. [PT]

    If you recall, Article I, Section 8, of the U.S. Constitution empowers Congress to coin money and regulate its value.  What’s more, Article I, Section 10, specifies that money be coined of gold and silver and cannot be bills of credit.

    Indeed, paper dollars are illegal money per the U.S. Constitution on two counts.  First, they’re issued by the Federal Reserve. Second, they are bills of credit with no ties to gold or silver.

    This critical defect does not register even a passing concern for most Americans.  But it should. Because illegal money – like paper dollars – has its deficiencies.  Mainly, it’s prone to gross over issuance for political means.  Thus, as it funds the unlimited growth of government, its payment quality grows evermore suspect.

    Without question, illegal money has a whole host of problems. And the woman who will soon be autographing the illegal money – Biden’s nominee for Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen – will further stimulate these problems.

    Deceptive and Cruel

    Janet Yellen, if you don’t remember, was Chair of the Federal Reserve from 2014 to 2018.  She will be only the second bureaucrat to be both Fed Chair and then Secretary of Treasury. The first was G. William Miller, way back when Jimmy Carter was President. Miller was a poor steward of the dollar. Inflation went off the Richter scale on his watch.

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    The Miller years were quite a harrowing time with respect to galloping price inflation. The extent to which Miller can be blamed is debatable – the event was a co-production cooked up by an entire gaggle of loopy bien-pensants over the years. They were just as arrogantly confident in their prescriptions as their successors deciding today’s policies are. [PT]

    Yellen, like Miller, will have the unique opportunity to authorize the money she previously issued.  The consequences could be equally destructive for the dollar.  They may even be worse.

    Prior to her time as Fed Chair, Yellen held various positions with the Federal Reserve over a 20 year run.  We don’t really know much about what she actually did. But, at a minimum, she participated in an era of unprecedented Fed activism.

    Certainly, Yellen has spent hours squinting at aggregate demand graphs while contemplating how monetary policy can be twisted to boost spending.  She also believes monetary policy is a moral issue.

    In fact, back in 1995, at a Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Yellen argued in favor of allowing inflation to exceed inflation targets for moral reasons.  The Economic Policy Journal offers the following account:

    “Ms. Yellen told the committee that ‘the moral’ of all this is ‘that the Fed should pursue multiple goals.’  She said that ‘when the goals conflict and it comes to calling for tough trade-offs, to me, a wise and humane policy is occasionally to let inflation rise even when inflation is running above target.’”

    Remember, inflation acts as a hidden tax on savers.  It devalues the purchasing power of their savings.  Ask any retiree living on a fixed income or a hardworking prudent individual skimping to squirrel away some nuts for retirement.  Policies of inflation are not wise and humane; they are deceptive and cruel.

    Janet Yellen: Too Dumb To Stop

    After all these years Yellen still thinks she knows best.  That she is the true arbiter of morality.  Guided by silly academic models she thinks she is helping people when she is really hurting them.

    Fiscal and monetary policies over the last 40 years have been characterized by increasingly extreme intervention. Over this period Yellen and other central planners have pursued inflationism as a means to perpetually stimulate demand.

    The Fed creates the illegal money.  The Treasury authorizes it.  And the economy adjusts accordingly. Business transactions are made with the illegal money.  Private and public buying and selling is conducted with it.  All commerce is settled with it.

    The over-issuance of illegal money has warped and distorted the economy…   delivering extreme riches to asset holders while leaving the vast majority of wage earners with empty pockets. Alas, Yellen is too dumb to stop. In a Tweet following the announcement of her nomination, she wrote:

    “We face great challenges as a country right now.  To recover, we must restore the American dream—a society where each person can rise to their potential and dream even bigger for their children.  As Treasury Secretary, I will work every day towards rebuilding that dream for all.”

    But what will Yellen, as Treasury Secretary, really do to restore the American dream?  Will she start new companies that employ people?  Will she create more high paying jobs?

    No, she won’t – because she can’t. Starting companies that create high paying jobs, and produce goods people demand, is out of the realm of what a Treasury Secretary can do. But what Yellen can do is work in concert with the Fed and Congress to authorize vast amounts of illegal printing press money.

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    It may be an overused cliché and who knows if it was really Einstein who said it, but in this case it certainly fits. [PT]

    Should Yellen follow the path of 1980 through 2019 and inject new credit into the financial system, we will see further inflation of financial assets. Should Yellen follow the CARES Act model and send checks directly to the people, consumer prices will inflate. Perhaps she will be compelled by her high morality to do both.

    Regardless, Yellen will not be up to the task of returning reverence and trust to the dollar.  And without that, there is little hope of restoring the American Dream.

  • MBA Applications Surge Despite Fed Defiling All Economic Laws As We Know Them
    MBA Applications Surge Despite Fed Defiling All Economic Laws As We Know Them

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 12/08/2020 – 21:05

    Who in their right mind would want to be an MBA in this environment?

    That’s the first question that came to our minds when we found out that MBA application volume was surging. Thanks to vast distortions in both capital markets and the economy brought on by the Fed rigging interest rates and introducing limitless money into the supply, we’re not sure any of the economic “basics” one would learn in an MBA program would even apply in the lunatic asylum our economic system has become in 2020.

    Despite this, the upcoming MBA admissions cycle is “shaping up to be the most competitive in recent memory,” according to the Wall Street Journal. Full time residential MBA applications have seen higher volumes for next fall and expect to have fewer spots for enrollment than in years past. 

    Schools have also let some international students defer enrollment due to the pandemic’s travel restrictions, locking up supply for spots. The deferral rate for all students was up from 2% in 2019 to 6% in 2020 as a result of the pandemic. 

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    Jeremy Shinewald, founder of admissions consulting firm mbaMission, said: “Everything points to this being the most competitive year ever for M.B.A. applicants. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if schools crush their records for application volume.” Consultations at his firm were up 30% from July to September, he said. 

    Applications to MBA programs in American “rose for the first time in five years” in 2020 as a result of lowered testing requirements and more applicants looking to bypass the economic slowdown caused by Covid. 

    “I feel the importance of the whole [application] package has increased. The bar is higher for applications,” applicant Jimmy Lin told the Journal. He is applying to Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management.

    Georgetown has accepted a majority of its candidates during its sound round of applications this year, whereas it normally takes three to four rounds to fill out a class. The university doesn’t expect to increase its class size despite the surge in interest for its program. 

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    Shelly Heinrich, the associate dean of M.B.A. admissions at Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business, said: “It can be nerve-racking for applicants. They are now thinking, ‘Oh goodness, not only do you have deferrals who have secured spots in your class for next year but your applications are now up significantly, and so what does that mean for me?”

    Applicants that schools are inviting for interviews have fallen about 8% at the Top 16 schools, the Journal notes, and the rejection rate is up 7% from a year prior.  

    Some schools, like Harvard Business School, are expanding their 2021 class sizes to try and meet some of the demand. Harvard said it would enroll 1,000 students over the next two years, up from the 730 it enrolled last fall. 

    Perhaps next they will alter their programs to specialize in how to get a multi-billion dollar market cap without ever turning a profit, the wonders of SPACs and why buying the dip will be a sound strategy for decades to come. 

  • How The COVID Response Has Destroyed The Personal Finances Of Americans
    How The COVID Response Has Destroyed The Personal Finances Of Americans

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 12/08/2020 – 20:45

    Authored by Daisy Luther via The Organic Prepper blog,

    Back when the virus that would soon be known as Covid-19 was just a blip on the radar, Selco wrote an article called, It’s Not the Virus You Need to Worry About. It’s the System. And like much of what Selco writes, it was prophetic.

    Here we are, coming up on a year after the virus first began making itself apparent and the world is dramatically different. Not only are there the inevitable arguments about masks, lockdowns, vaccines, and hypocritical politicians using the whole thing as a power grab, but there are very real effects on everyday families all over the world.

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    In the United States, our personal finances have taken blow after blow. Eight million more Americans than last year are now living in poverty as millions of jobs have disappeared, never to return. Data from the review site Yelp shows that 60% of the businesses that shut down due to Covid have permanently closed. People who were formerly struggling are sinking, and many of those who were comfortably middle class are desperately trying to stay afloat.

    It isn’t so much the virus that has caused our financial woes – it’s the response to the virus. Federal, state, and local governments have deemed what businesses are allowed to operate and how they must do so. This has resulted in the loss of businesses themselves, loss of sales, and loss of jobs. Nearly every family is feeling the effects to some degree. Please check out our new frugality website for practical solutions if you are dealing with financial issues.

    Here are some of the ways American families are suffering financially due to the response to the virus.

    More people are living paycheck to paycheck.

    Back in February of this year, a report was released that showed 40% of American workers were living paycheck to paycheck.

    Willis Towers Watson’s Global Benefits Attitudes Survey discovered that although 58 percent of workers think their finances are heading in the right direction, 38 percent of employees are living paycheck to paycheck…

    …Almost one-fifth of those making more than $100,000 are living paycheck to paycheck, and about one-third say their financial problems negatively affect their lives. The survey polled 8,000 American workers.  (source)

    That early 2020, pre-lockdown report looks like a glimpse of nostalgia from the good old days. A more recent report has found, due to the Covid response, that now almost two-thirds of Americans are living the paycheck to paycheck life.

    With government shutdowns forcing countless businesses to close and then lay off workers, one in four respondents now feel their income is not stable. Nearly two in three (63%) say they’re going paycheck-to-paycheck since March 2020. Millennials seem to be the hardest hit, with 64 percent saying they’re living off their paychecks.

    “After the unemployment rate spiked to more than 14% in April, Americans continue to be wary about their job security and income,” writes Highland President Jon Berbaum in a media release. (source)

    Anyone who has ever lived through this situation knows that paycheck-to-paycheck is a delicate dance and it only takes one small thing to go wrong to cause your house of cards to come tumbling down.

    NSF fees, late fees, reconnection fees, extra deposits, overdraft interest, and payday loans can all destroy the financially fragile, leaving them in a downward spiral designed to keep them trapped. There’s a reason that broke people tend to stay broke, and it’s not because they’re simply lazy and irresponsible. It’s because the system is set up in a way that it earns more money by charging poor people extra.

    Hardly anyone has an emergency fund left.

    Back in 2019, Bankrate released a survey that said only 40% of Americans would be able to pay for an emergency costing a thousand dollars out of their savings. Yet again, those were the good old days.

    A more recent survey said that an astounding EIGHTY TWO PERCENT of Americans could no longer handle an emergency costing $500. Zero Hedge reports:

    But perhaps the most alarming number from the entire survey: a whopping 82% of respondents said they wouldn’t be able to cover an emergency $500 expense without borrowing money.

    For context, prior to the pandemic, surveys showed that roughly half of Americans couldn’t afford a $500 emergency expense, which means the number of people who say they couldn’t cover a small emergency has risen by 60%.  (source)

    An emergency fund is the most important financial prep you can make.

    When your finances are tight, sometimes your first impulse is to spend every dime.  Many people focus on things like paying off debts, stocking up on food and supplies, or paying more than the minimum payments on bills.

    However, that may not be your best bet.  Don’t get me wrong – paying off debt is absolutely vital,  but most experts recommend establishing an emergency fund as the first step back to financial security.  (source)

    Many people report making up the difference between their income and output with credit cards and other forms of personal debt.  Unfortunately, with our somber economic forecast, this is just delaying the inevitable implosion of their personal finances.

    People are unable to find work.

    An October jobs report showed that millions of the positions lost back in March have not returned, and that millions of people have now reached the classification of “long-term unemployment.” The New York Times reported:

    The Labor Department said on Friday that 2.4 million people had been out of work for 27 weeks or more, the threshold it uses to define long-term joblessness. An even bigger surge is on the way: Nearly five million people are approaching long-term joblessness over the next two months. The same report showed that even as temporary layoffs were on the decline, permanent job losses were rising sharply.

    Those two problems — rising long-term unemployment and permanent job losses — are separate but intertwined and, together, could foreshadow a period of prolonged economic damage and financial pain for American families.

    Companies that are limping along below capacity this far into the crisis may be increasingly unlikely to ever recall their employees. History also suggests the longer that people are out of work, the harder it is for them to get back into a job. (source)

    In September and October, many large corporations made the decision to end even more jobs.

    Disney announced this past week that it would lay off 28,000 U.S. employees as its theme parks struggle. Layoff notices filed with state authorities show that hospitality and service companies across the country, from P.F. Chang’s restaurant branches to Gap stores, are making thousands of long-term staff reductions. Airport bookstores in Pennsylvania and Tennessee are cutting jobs as travel dwindles. So are wineries and upscale sports clubs in California.

    Airline job cuts run to the tens of thousands. American Airlines started to send furlough notices to 19,000 workers and United Airlines to 13,000 after a federal moratorium expired on Thursday. Those are on top of reductions at other carriers, and existing firings across the industry.

    Altogether, nearly 3.8 million people had lost their jobs permanently in September, according to the Labor Department’s latest monthly survey, almost twice as many as at the height of the pandemic job losses, in April. (source)

    And then, things had just begun to look up just a little bit for those in service industries when the second round of lockdowns hit crushing the hopes of many of those who were just beginning to get back to work.

    The closure of schools has kept many parents from returning to work or caused financial hardship.

    It isn’t just the unavailability of jobs that has made things difficult. The erratic 2020 school year has also caused financial hardship and in many cases, made it impossible for parents to return to work.

    Now, I know a lot of homeschool parents will say that people shouldn’t be using public school as a free babysitter. But the fact remains that many families require two incomes to survive. In my case, as a single mom, the school year allowed me to make a living. During the summer, my children had wonderful vacations with both sets of grandparents, mercifully, because paying for full-time childcare for both of them would have taken almost every dime I was earning, leaving nothing for housing, food, and other costs.

    If you aren’t familiar with current childcare costs, a person quoted in the article cited below reported that she and her husband were spending an eye-watering $5300 per month for their three children.

    While wealthier parents can afford to “get creative,” lower income and many single parents have far fewer options, said Caitlyn Collins, a professor of sociology at Washington University in St. Louis who studies women and families. Some are leaning on family members or just doing the best they can on their own. Others have been laid off, or have had to quit their jobs to take care of their kids…

    …The United States has been an outlier on child care long before the coronavirus, Collins said, with price tags far exceeding those in other high-income countries. The average cost of child care for a child under 4 is $9,589 per year, according to New America’s Care Report — more than the average cost of in-state college tuition. It’s much more expensive in big cities: In Washington, D.C., the average cost of care for an infant is more than $24,000.

    Rising child care costs are particularly “terrifying” for U.S. families, Collins said, because child care already accounts for an enormous part of their budget, often second only to a family’s rent or mortgage. (source)

    Financially speaking, women are suffering the most with regard to pandemic related job losses. Hundreds of thousands of women left the workforce in September – approximately 849,000 – in comparison to 216,000 men. Betsey Stevenson, a professor of public policy and economics at the University of Michigan, explained in an interview why women have been unevenly affected.

    …the age group that had the biggest decline was thirty-five to forty-four. And it’s not at all surprising to me, in the sense that the people who are really struggling are people with young kids and multiple kids at home. It’s the parents who have a four-year-old, a six-year-old, and a nine-year-old, and those kids are at home, and they’re trying to do Zoom school. It’s really difficult. Even if both parents had the opportunity to work from home, that’s a really hard thing to manage. I want to make sure that I emphasize that that’s one kind of hardship, and then there’s another kind of hardship, which is parents or single moms who had an in-person job and no child care.  (source)

    I have more than one friend who has been attempting to oversee “distance learning” while keeping her job remotely and the stress levels are through the roof. If you can’t afford a nanny or you don’t have a family member willing to take on the task, quite simply, someone is going to have to stop working at a time when we can least afford to have our incomes drop any further.

    The price of food has increased dramatically.

    Food prices increased for the fifth month in a row, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. People around the world are seeing a 6.5% increase in their costs of commodities such as cereals, dairy, vegetable oil, meat, and sugar.

    But your trip to the local grocery store may look like a much greater increase than six and a half percent. There’s a variety of reasons that prices have gone up. Everything from supply chain shortages to production issues has caused costs to increase. There are other Covid-related reasons that  explain why you may be experiencing sticker shock:

    Shift to eating at home: In a matter of two months, approximately $23 billion in consumer spending away from home was redirected toward grocery stores as restaurants were forced to close due to COVID-19, according to FMI – The Food Industry Association.

    Loss of foodservice demand: When restaurants closed, farmers and ranchers lost a key channel for their product. With fewer buyers, it is costly or impractical to harvest, preserve or store some food and beverage products.Increasing production and processing costs: During COVID-19, companies have made investments and adjustments to safeguard their products and employees. This means costs for food production are higher. Some manufacturers have been able to innovate and find new markets for their products, but these changes often entail added costs.

    Increasing operating costs for grocery stores: Compared to 2019, supermarket operating costs were up 7.9% in April 2020 and 6.7% in May 2020, according to USDA Economic Research Service.

    Grocery stores have remained open during the pandemic and have had to quickly adjust to new regulations, safety and sanitation practices and enhanced customer education – all requiring resources. In addition, some areas of the grocery store, including salad bars and hot bars, have had to shut down, meaning a loss of revenue. (source)

    There are also fewer sales:

    Usually, 31.4% of grocery store items are purchased on some sort of sale, but at the end of September the share was 26%, according to market research firm Nielsen. The biggest impact was in the household care department, where just 15% of items were sold on promotion, half the usual amount. Heightened consumer demand and strained supply are giving stores little reason to mark down prices, Nielsen said. (source)

    While the statistics only note a few percentage points, the real picture looks a lot different.

    Eva Rosol was stunned during the summer when a rotisserie chicken that she could normally find on sale for $6 suddenly set her back $15…

    ….Ariel Neal, owner of Leira Knows Cocktails and Events, has been opting for more potatoes and starches and fewer fruits and vegetables…She didn’t qualify for unemployment benefits or small business relief, and has been subsisting on her savings and the government’s Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, formerly known as food stamps.

    “Before, $20 would have gotten me at least two to three meals,” said Neal, 42, who lives in Calumet City. “Twenty dollars doesn’t do that anymore.”

    …Yvernia Wilson, who is on a fixed income and vigilant about grocery prices, was taken aback early in the summer when a large package of hamburger meat she’d normally pay $8.99 for was listed at $14 at the Jewel-Osco she shops at on Chicago’s South Side.

    A nice-sized pot roast for Sunday dinner was almost $20, $6 more than she’d usually spend. Even a package of chicken wings cost $3 more…

    …Wilson restricts herself to two meats and for some items has resorted to buying cheaper brands she doesn’t necessarily like. She bypasses the organic aisle and sometimes forgoes fruit altogether if it isn’t on sale. (source)

    Don’t look for food prices to decrease any time soon. Our supply chain is still broken and getting worse. Another lockdown means that store owners will be trying to get the most money possible from customers in order to keep afloat for as long as possible. The current price increases could be permanent.

    The eviction moratorium runs out soon.

    And finally, to make matters even more difficult for struggling families, a federal moratorium on evictions will be running out on December 31, leaving as many as 19 million people at risk of being homeless as 2021 begins. A few states will continue eviction bans but most will follow the federal guidelines.

    It’s important to note that people who were not paying rent based on the moratorium will now have to catch up immediately or risk being evicted.

    The federal mandate doesn’t prohibit late fees (although some local ordinances do), nor does it let tenants off the hook for any back rent they owe. It also doesn’t establish any kind of financial assistance fund to help renters get caught up, a safeguard some say is critical to preventing a massive wave of evictions when the ban eventually lifts…be aware that you may still be held responsible for any back rent you currently owe as well as any rent that accrues between now and the end of your lease (if you have one), whether or not you vacate. (source)

    It’s projected that 6.7 million households could be affected by the end of the moratorium.

    This is, of course, a double-edged sword. Not all rental property owners are massive corporate entities with teams of lawyers diligently searching for loopholes. This has been a tremendous hit for Mom and Pop landlords, many of whom invested in real estate to have a bit of income during their retirement. They have been unable to evict tenants who aren’t paying their rent but still had to maintain the property in a manner according to the local bylaws, pay their mortgage payments, and make timely property tax payments.

    2021 isn’t going to be a magical solution.

    A lot of folks have just written off 2020 as “a bad year” and seem to believe that the moment this year is over, the curse will be lifted and we’ll all be able to go on with our lives having survived it and gotten through it.

    Unfortunately, the changes that I’ve written about aren’t going to disappear when you put that new calendar on the wall. Businesses that hung on through Christmas to try and sell their remaining inventory could be closing right after the holiday, leaving even more jobs in the dust. Lockdowns could very well become even more stringent after the inauguration, which would keep all the same problems going. It’s time to redouble your preparedness efforts and really examine your situation.

    This has been more than a pandemic. It’s been a major economic catastrophe, just as predicted, and we’re in it for the long haul.

  • NJ's Murphy Complains Non-Compliance With COVID Contact Tracers Hits 74%
    NJ's Murphy Complains Non-Compliance With COVID Contact Tracers Hits 74%

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 12/08/2020 – 20:25

    Time to break out the microchips.

    NJ Gov Phil Murphy expressed his frustration during a press briefing on Monday with the fact that NJ’s contact-tracing efforts have been a colossal failure, largely due to astronomical rates of non-cooperation, a problem that also plagued NYC’s famously botched contact tracing program.

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    According to the Garden State Governor, “the rate of noncooperation with our contact tracers is now up to a whopping 74%.”

    “The rate of noncooperation with our contact tracers is now up to a whopping 74% of cases. Quite frankly, this is unacceptable and we need folks to turn that around,” Murphy said. “It is extremely critical for contact tracers to get in touch with the close contacts of those who test positive to help us stop the spread of this virus.”

    The audibly and visibly irritated governor added that contact tracers aren’t conducting a “witch hunt”; they’re just trying to help people. “We’re only trying to stop the spread of this virus,” Murphy reiterated. He added later in a tweet that the state has more than 30 contact tracers on the ground for every 100K residents, a solid ratio that should be producing much better results.

    But what the governor has demonstrated is that no matter how many contact tracers the state employs, results will likely remain subpar because the fact of the matter is: most people view the government – whether federal, or state – with skepticism and suspicion, and would probably prefer not to share personal information about their whereabouts and activities – just in case these ‘contact tracers’ get the wrong impression.

    NJ reported another 5K+ new cases on Tuesday.

    Murphy recently tightened restrictions on social gatherings and youth sports to try and stanch the surge in new cases.

    Watch the clip below:

  • Pelosi, Schumer Reject Mnuchin's $916 Billion COVID Relief Bill Offer
    Pelosi, Schumer Reject Mnuchin's $916 Billion COVID Relief Bill Offer

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 12/08/2020 – 20:24

    Update (2020ET): As details emerged that the state and local aid embedded in Treasury Secretary Mnuchin’s latest $916 COVID Relief bill offer was around $100 billion of school-reopening-targeted funds (and not free money to bail out the pension funds), it will come as no shock to anyone that Democrats rejected the bill.

    Pelosi and Schumer did accept that McConnell signing off on Mnuchin’s deal was “progress,” they said the proposal’s unemployment insurance position is “unacceptable.”

    Proposal “must not be allowed to obstruct the bipartisan Congressional talks that are underway.”

    “The President’s proposal starts by cutting the unemployment insurance proposal being discussed by bipartisan Members of the House and Senate from $180 billion to $40 billion. That is unacceptable.”

    *  *  *

    Update (1745ET): While Mitch McConnell reportedly suggested he would be willing to trade liability for state and local bailouts, a statement from Treasury Secretary Mnuchin adds yet more confusion to the situation over COVID Relief. The bill is slightly larger than the $908 billion bipartisan bill that has been floated:

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    So, that means $569 billion is in ‘recycled’ funds and this bill includes a state and local bailout (what Dems want) and liability protection (which GOP wants).

    *  *  *

    Update (1300ET): Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has made a move from his more stoic position, making it clear that he is willing to pass a COVID relief bill without the liability protection clause that the GOP has been pushing for for months, if Democrats are willing to remove their state and local bailout funding demands.

    As far as he is concerned, these are the two things holding up relief to millions of Americans.

    *  *  *

    Hopes of a bipartisan stimulus deal faded on Tuesday after failing to resolve several remaining stumbling blocks left over from Monday – including Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s refusal to endorse a $908 billion bipartisan proposal as a basis for talks.

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    McConnell has also insisted on applying broad federal limits on COVID-19 related lawsuits against businesses – for which Democrats are offering a six-month moratorium.

    “Drop the all-or nothing tactics,” McConnell said of Democrats during a Monday Senate floor speech in which he called on Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer to allow a vote on a targeted bill which would provide extended unemployment insurance, along with small business assistance and funding for vaccine distribution.

    Senators from both sides of the aisle concluded that the prospects for a $908 billion compromise that Republican and Democratic negotiators are hashing out will come down to McConnell’s decision. Several GOP members have endorsed or been open to the plan, and top White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said President Donald Trump would likely sign it. McConnell is engaging the negotiators even though he hasn’t budged. –Fortune

    In addition to gridlock over liability protection for businesses, Republicans and Democrats are butting heads over aid for states and localities – which has been House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s line in the sand for months.

    “Those are coupled together,” said Texas Republican Senator, John Cornyn, referring to the liability protection and funding for states and municipalities. “There’s either going to be none for both of those, or both of those that are going to be provided for. My hope is we’ll do both.”

    Republicans claim that state assistance is a scheme to bail out poorly-run Democratic areas, while Democrats have refused to shield employers from lawsuits for failing to protect employees who contract COVID-19.

    Meanwhile, lawmakers are in even deeper gridlock on the omnibus spending bill – which includes disputes over further border wall funding, money for police anti-racism training (!?) and other measures.

    Speaking about the Covid-19 relief proposal, McConnell said it’s getting “down to the wire.“

    Schumer blamed his GOP counterpart for stalling the compromise effort. He and Pelosi publicly endorsed the $908 billion plan last Wednesday, after having made a new pitch to McConnell two days before. They previously sought a $2.4 trillion bill.

    “We want the leader to sit down and negotiate so we can come up with a bipartisan proposal that can pass the House and the Senate,” Schumer said on the Senate floor. He highlighted that some economists are warning of a double-dip recession if Congress fails to pass a deal. –Fortune

    On Tuesday, GOP leaders plan to discuss the situation with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows. In particular, they will seek a separate COVID-19 relief initiative.

  • Facts – Not Fear – Will Stop The Pandemic
    Facts – Not Fear – Will Stop The Pandemic

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 12/08/2020 – 20:05

    Authored by Dr. Jayanta Bhattacharya via The American Institute for Economic Research,

    The media relish negative news. “If it bleeds it leads” still holds, and perhaps it’s never been truer than in the COVID-19 era. Every day the news highlights the spread of the virus and tells the sad stories of some of its victims.

    And yet, much of the media does not pay sufficient attention to the good news regarding improved treatments and survival of patients with the coronavirus.

    In contrast with the international media, the American press has been unrelentingly negative in its COVID coverage, even when there is good news to tell. That negativity is part of what fuels a culture of fear that affects local, state and federal politicians and the decisions they make.

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    But there is a lot of good news to tell. The case fatality rate from the virus has dropped sharply since March. The infection survival rate is 99.95 percent for people under 70 and 95 percent for people over 70. Hospitals are much better equipped to handle patients, with improved ventilator protocols, improved management of outpatients and new therapeutic strategies to provide relief and recoveries. Moreover, thanks to multiple ongoing clinical trials around the world, there may soon be a safe and effective vaccine.

    By contrast with their focus on COVID deaths, the media have paid scant attention to the enormous medical and psychological harms from the lockdowns in use to slow the pandemic. Despite the enormous collateral damage lockdowns have caused, England, France, Germany, Spain and other European countries are all intensifying their lockdowns once again.

    By lockdowns, we mean the all-too-familiar shuttered schools and universities, closed playgrounds and parks, silent churches and bankrupt stores and businesses that have become emblematic of American civic life these past months. The relative dearth of reporting on the harms caused by lockdowns is odd, since lives lost from lockdown are no less important than lives lost from COVID infection. But they’ve received much less media attention.

    The harms from lockdown have been catastrophic. Consider the psychological harm. Reader, since you’re reading this in lockdown, you can undoubtedly relate to the isolation and loneliness that these policies can cause by shutting down typical channels for social interaction. In June, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimated that one in four young adults had seriously considered suicide. Opioid and other drug related deaths are on a sharp and unsurprising upswing.   

    The burden of these policies falls disproportionately on some of the most vulnerable. For example, isolation led to a 20 percent increase in dementia-related deaths among our elderly population. Moreover, retrospective analysis of the lockdown in the United States shows that patients skipped cancer screenings, childhood immunizations, diabetes management visits and even treatment for heart attacks.

    Internationally, the lockdowns have placed 130 million people on the brink of starvation, 80 million children at risk for diphtheria, measles and polio, and 1.8 million patients at risk of death from tuberculosis. The lockdowns in developed countries have devastated the poor in poor countries. The World Economic Forum estimates that the lockdowns will cause an additional 150 million people to fall into extreme poverty, 125 times as many people as have died from COVID.

    Though there has been some coverage of lockdown harms, the media have not paid the same attention to it as they have to COVID deaths. If there is a COVID-death tracker, there should be side-by-side with it a lockdown-death tracker.

    The lack of balanced media attention towards the good news about the virus and the costs of lockdowns comes with its own cost. Without a balanced approach to COVID news, the public cannot make informed choices about COVID policy, such as school closures. Even a diligent citizen cannot make an informed judgment about the wisdom of continuing lockdowns if only their benefits are emphasized and their costs downplayed. The media have an obligation to show both.

    Finally, the neglect of the good COVID news breeds panic and fear, which is never a good public health strategy. The public should know that the pandemic will not be here forever. While these are challenging times – and, for many families, life-changing times – like every other pandemic in human history, the COVID-19 pandemic will end. With wise and informed policy choices, we can reduce its ultimate toll of death and human misery.

  • Former Nikola CEO Milton Sold $55 Million In Stock, Bought Three Properties
    Former Nikola CEO Milton Sold $55 Million In Stock, Bought Three Properties

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 12/08/2020 – 19:45

    Today in “how to turn assets that don’t exist into assets that do” news…

    It was reported yesterday that disgraced founder and former CEO of Nikola, Trevor Milton, had sold 3.2 million shares of Nikola stock while still at the company in order to consummate “three real-estate transactions” and purchase three different properties.

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    As part of the transactions, Milton’s LLC gave the shares on December 3 to the sellers of three piece of real estate, including a sprawling $32 million ranch Milton bought in Utah. 

    It appears Milton sold about $55 million worth of stock on the company’s lockup expiration date last week, according to SEC filings. And voila! That makes three more pieces of real estate than Nikola trucks sold, as Hindenburg Research’s Nathan Anderson noted on Twitter on Monday. 

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    Bloomberg reported on Monday that Milton says he is “committed to his Nikola Corp. holding and doesn’t plan to relinquish his position as its largest shareholder”.

    It’s a statement that sounds reassuring, but doesn’t necessarily preclude Milton from selling more shares before becoming the second largest holder of Nikola stock. He could still sell “millions of shares” and be the company’s largest holder, Bloomberg noted.

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    Milton’s lockup expired last week, on the same day the company announced that GM would no longer be taking an equity stake. Milton has the ability to now hit the bid with 91.6 million shares if he desires. In a CNBC interview two weeks ago, Nikola CEO Mark Russell “failed to assure” investors on both a GM deal and the idea that Milton wouldn’t immediately hit the bid when given the chance. 

    Nikola partner Bosch also cut its stake in the company to below the 5% reporting threshold last week after its share lockup expired. 

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  • California Is The Top US Net Importer Of Electricity
    California Is The Top US Net Importer Of Electricity

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 12/08/2020 – 19:25

    Authored by Charles Kennedy via OilPrice.com,

    California’s imports were the largest in the United States last year when 25 percent of California’s total electricity supply was imported, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Monday.  

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    Last year, California’s net electricity imports were the largest in the country at 70.8 million megawatt-hours (MWh), followed by Ohio, Massachusetts, Virginia, and Tennessee, EIA data showed.

    In California’s case, the state’s utilities partly own and import power from several power plants in Arizona and Utah. California’s electricity imports also include hydroelectric power from the Pacific Northwest, mostly across high-voltage transmission lines from Oregon to the Los Angeles area.

    This summer, amid the great West heatwave, the largest U.S. solar state, California, was grappling with power issues and struggling to keep its electricity grid stable as demand exceeds supply.

    California energy consumers were warned of rolling outages as there was insufficient energy to meet the high demand during the heatwave in August. In California, where solar power supplies more than 20 percent of electricity as per the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), August’s rolling outages were the worst such outages since the 2000-2001 energy crisis in the state.    

    According to 2019 data from the California Energy Commission, the state imported 30.68 percent of its renewables-generated electricity supply and 69.32 percent of non-renewables supply.

    While California was the biggest net importer of electricity in the U.S. last year, the largest net exporter of electricity was Pennsylvania, with 70.5 million MWh of exports, or 24 percent of total supply, EIA data showed.

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    Pennsylvania’s electricity generation was the third-largest in the United States in 2019, behind Texas and Florida. Natural gas-fired and nuclear power plants produced most of Pennsylvania’s electricity generation in 2019, at 43 percent and 36 percent, respectively. Pennsylvania ranks second in the U.S., after Illinois, in terms of nuclear power generating capacity.

  • DoorDash Hikes IPO Price Again To $102 Per Share As US Heads For Best Year For Deals Since 1999
    DoorDash Hikes IPO Price Again To $102 Per Share As US Heads For Best Year For Deals Since 1999

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 12/08/2020 – 19:06

    Ahead of their IPOs this week, Airbnb and DoorDash are now seemingly taking turns hiking the debut price range for their respective IPOs, as year-end deal frenzy hits a fever pitch .

    Early this morning, Tesla announced plans for another $5BN “at the money” offering of new shares. When shares erased their selloff and traded higher, it offered the latest confirmation that the market’s appetite remains as robust as ever.

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    DoorDash has acknowledged in the section of its S-1 where it addresses long term risks that there’s a chance it might never be profitable, as the economics of third-party food delivery.

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    Now, DoorDash is reportedly expecting to price shares at the IPO at about $102 apiece, according to WSJ.

    The price will increase DoorDash’s take during the offering to $3.4BN, roughly $400MM more than before, bringing its post offering valuation to $39BN, if all goes according to plan.

    On a fully diluted the company’s valuation could draw very close to $40BN.

    According to WSJ’s sources, DoorDash’s roadshow, which began last week, elicited strong interest from investors who have shown a strong interest in the offering, prompting the company to boost the price range from an initial $75 to $85 a share.

    During Q2, DoorDash booked a profit of $23MM on $675MM in revenue, though it reverted to a net loss the next quarter even as revenue jumped to $879MM.

    CNBC confirmed the report while several of its reporters debated the merits of such a frothy valuation for the startup that has seen its market share in the US surge to roughly 50% of the entire market. However, profits have remained difficult to come by.

    DoorDash prices IPO at $102: Sources from CNBC.

    Earlier,Rahul Vohra, tech investor, founder and CEO of subscription email app Superhuman, appeared on “the Closing Bell” to sing DoorDash’s praises as one of the best gig economy apps out there (per Vohra), who pointed out that the company is growing far faster than already-public rival GrubHub.

    WSJ also explains how both DoorDash and Airbnb are embracing a more innovative approach to gauging interest and doling out allocations. Both companies are asking investors in the IPO (mostly institutions and some wealthy individuals) to input stock orders through a computerized system in which they outline the number of shares they are seeking and at what price. Investors have the option to indicate how much they are willing to buy at various price points. Typically, the syndicate banks managing the IPO play the critical role in setting the price. But this new strategy will give both companies more control.

    Typically a quiet month for IPOs, December is shaping up to be a frenzied finish to what has already been a gangbusters year for deals. Already, more than $140BN has been raised in via IPOs on US exchanges, a number that far exceeds the previous full-year record high set at the height of the dot-com boom in 1999.

    Unfortunately for beleaguered IBD analysts, management is cutting short Christmas breaks and pressuring them to pull longer hours than usual during the holiday, despite rumors about steep cuts to the bonus pool, as banks shift more capital toward loan loss provisions despite a surprisingly strong year in terms of revenue and profits from sales and trading and other investment banking activities.

  • Merrill Lynch To Pay Former NH Governor $24 Million Over Excessive Trading Allegations
    Merrill Lynch To Pay Former NH Governor $24 Million Over Excessive Trading Allegations

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 12/08/2020 – 19:05

    Merrill Lynch has been ordered by the state of New Hampshire to pay $26.25 million in fines and restitution to settle allegations that one of its top brokers traded excessively and without authorization in order to rack up huge commissions. The company was also cited for failure to supervise and was ordered to maintain new compliance rules. 

    Of that $26.25 million, more than $24 million in restitution will go to the former governor of New Hampshire, Craig Benson. 

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    The fine is the “largest monetary sanction in the state’s history and the second largest FINRA settlement in at least a decade,” according to CNBC. 

    The former broker accused of the wrongdoing, Charles Kenahan, has been barred from the industry. He was found to have “traded without authorization, mismarked trade confirmations, excessively traded stocks and Initial Public Offerings, over charged commissions, and inappropriately traded inverse and leveraged products,” according to NH regulators. 

    His actions resulted in “high commissions for Merrill Lynch and Kenahan and heavy losses for the investor.”

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    Jeff Spill, the deputy director and head of enforcement for New Hampshire’s Bureau of Securities Regulation, commented: “This case is about an abuse of trust committed by Merrill Lynch and Kenahan. Ultimately, Kenahan’s recommendations benefited Kenahan and Merrill Lynch and not the investor.”

    Kenahan’s FINRA BrokerCheck record offers his take on the allegations, stating:

     “…the transactions giving rise to the customers’ allegations were executed at the customers’ direction. The allegations resulted in arbitrations and settlements. I was not a party to the arbitrations; I had no say in the firm’s decision to settle the claims; and I was not asked to make any payment as part of the settlements.” 

    “I certainly didn’t sign a document and say it’s OK to steal from me. This is a fight I never chose,” Benson had said over the summer, after claiming “widespread misconduct” led to market-adjusted damages of over $100 million. 

    During the summer, a group of Merrill clients had alleged $200 million in damages which ultimately led to the New Hampshire investigation, CNBC noted in an interview with Craig Benson:

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Dec 08

Today’s News 8th December 2020

  • France, UK, Germany Plea For Iran To Reverse Course On Advanced Centrifuge Expansion
    France, UK, Germany Plea For Iran To Reverse Course On Advanced Centrifuge Expansion

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 12/08/2020 – 01:00

    Days ago Iran announced its intent to install more advanced uranium-enriching centrifuges to expand its nuclear program, which it still maintains is for peaceful domestic energy purposes, giving approval through an act of parliament in a move seen as aimed toward gaining more leverage ahead of expected talks with the incoming Biden administration on relieving sanctions and restoring US participation in the JCPOA nuclear deal.

    The IAEA nuclear watchdog confirmed this in a recent statement: “In a letter dated 2 December 2020, Iran informed the Agency that the operator of the Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP) at Natanz ‘intends to start installation of three cascades of IR-2m centrifuge machines’ at FEP,” the IAEA told member states.

    But now European signatories of the 2015 JCPOA are urging Iran not to go through with it, saying they they are deeply “alarmed” it could backfire in terms of Biden’s reported willingness to drop sanctions.

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    Iran nuclear facility, via Reuters

    France, Germany and Britain said in a joint statement that Iran must remain “serious” about “preserving space for diplomacy”. The expanded centrifuges, they said, could have the opposite effect.

    “Iran’s recent announcement to the IAEA that it intends to install an additional three cascades of advanced centrifuges at the Fuel Enrichment Plant in Natanz is contrary to the JCPoA and deeply worrying,” the countries added.

    Here are the details of what the Islamic Republic plans to do according to a leaked confidential report revealed by Reuters:

    A confidential International Atomic Energy Agency report obtained by Reuters said Iran plans to install three more cascades, or clusters, of advanced IR-2m centrifuges in its enrichment plant at Natanz, which was built underground apparently to withstand any aerial bombardment.

    Iran’s nuclear deal with major powers says Tehran can only use first-generation IR-1 centrifuges, which refine uranium much more slowly, at Natanz and that those are the only machines with which Iran may accumulate enriched stocks.

    The fear is that it could also put Biden under greater domestic public pressure, but especially pressure by national security state hawks, to not pursue restoration of the JCPOA.

    “Such a move would jeopardise our shared efforts to preserve the JCPOA and also risks compromising the important opportunity for a return to diplomacy with the incoming U.S. administration,” France, Germany and Britain added in their statement.

    All of this also comes as Trump has reportedly given Pompeo a ‘green light’ to target Iran in various ways (presumably with kind of covert action alongside ally Israel that led to the death of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh), but short of any action that might spark a major war.

  • China & The US Are Facing Off In The Third World
    China & The US Are Facing Off In The Third World

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 12/07/2020 – 23:40

    Authored by Hal Brands, op-ed via Bloomberg.com,

    During the Cold War, the Third World was a superpower battleground, as the U.S. and Soviet Union jockeyed for position across the globe. Today, the developing regions are once again an arena for rivalry, this time between the U.S. and China.

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    As the President Donald Trump era ends, Washington seems, somewhat fortuitously, to have mostly avoided the danger that China might divide it from other advanced democracies in Europe and the Asia-Pacific. Yet the struggle for the Third World is only beginning, and Beijing possesses sizable advantages as well as vast ambitions.

    If the global periphery is moving to the center of the U.S.-China rivalry, that’s partially because the status of the democratic core is no longer as precarious as it was only recently. As late as 2019 and even the beginning of 2020, the combination of Chinese economic leverage and self-destructive U.S. behavior under Trump threatened to drive deep wedges in the Western world. It seemed possible that large swaths of Europe might opt for neutrality between America and China, or even become technologically dependent on Beijing. That danger hasn’t vanished, but it has become less acute.

    By deepening its domestic repression, pressuring a democratic Taiwan, and coercing countries that criticized or resisted the Chinese Communist Party, Beijing created a wave of diplomatic blowback. China’s favorability ratings have plummeted in Europe and East Asia, and the European Union has labeled it a “systemic rival.” More and more advanced democracies have opted, implicitly or explicitly, to avoid using the Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei in their critical digital infrastructure.

    The providential irony of the Trump era is that a presidency often characterized by efforts to fragment the democratic world is ending with the gradual creation of a democratic coalition to resist Chinese influence.

    Unfortunately, the situation is different in the developing regions, namely Central and Southeast Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America. During the Cold War, the Third World was a strategic vulnerability for the U.S., because the blend of ideological radicalism, post-colonial ferment and economic underdevelopment made these regions receptive to communist influence.

    Conditions have changed enormously, and the term “Third World” has fallen out of favor. (“Developing countries” or “emerging markets” are often the preferred nomenclature, even though those labels obscure vast differences in current status and future prospects.) But the nations of these regions still constitute a challenging strategic landscape for Washington.

    Generally speaking, these countries are less developed than U.S. treaty allies in Europe and the Asia-Pacific, which makes the offer of Chinese loans (even predatory ones) or low-cost digital infrastructure more attractive. Democratic governance is less robust, and political corruption is more prevalent in the former Third World than in the West, creating entry points for Chinese influence.

    Thanks to their historical experience of colonialism and foreign intervention (sometimes at the hands of Washington), developing nations tend to favor the norm of nonintervention in the internal affairs of other states, and are less inclined to condemn the authoritarian abuses of the Chinese Communist Party. The quest for influence in the global south is thus at the heart of Beijing’s geopolitical strategy.

    Because Third World countries are so numerous, their support is crucial in Beijing’s effort to control or coopt international bodies from the United Nations Human Rights Council to the International Telecommunications Union. These institutions may not sound like strategic prizes, but they play a crucial role in setting the norms and standards of the global system.

    Similarly, the Belt and Road Initiative aims to weave economic, diplomatic, technological and eventually military ties connecting China to much of the developing world. From Beijing’s perspective, building a sphere of influence in the global south is a path to achieving geopolitical parity with the U.S.

    U.S. officials appreciate the danger. During the Trump years, high-ranking officials including Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and National Security Adviser John Bolton publicly described the perils of neo-imperialism with Chinese characteristics. The creation of the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation represents an initial response to China’s global economic offensive. Other leading democracies, such as Australia and Japan, have deepened their own engagement with the countries of the South Pacific and Southeast Asia.

    Yet Chinese loans and infrastructure projects crisscross the globe, the Digital Silk Road is drawing countries into Beijing’s technological embrace, and Beijing’s diplomatic influence is still expanding rather than contracting.

    For the foreseeable future, China’s Third World challenge will be a strategic reality, one that requires a concerted and creative response.

    Enhanced U.S. coordination with Japan, Australia and the EU would allow leading democracies to more strategically deploy their combined resources to strengthen Third World growth and infrastructure. A democratic tech coalition geared toward facilitating and financing the adoption of non-Chinese telecommunications technology, for example, would reduce the allure of devil’s bargains with Huawei and its 5G network.

    Covid-19, meanwhile, offers an opportunity to unveil a generous program for vaccine distribution in the developing regions, something that would be a moral good, as well as a way of offsetting the vaccine diplomacy that Beijing is already practicing.

    Over time, Washington and its allies should also emphasize good governance and democratic reform in the developing world, because progress in that area will make it harder for China to cut deals with autocratic or kleptocratic leaders. And while promoting positive engagement is the best guarantee of U.S. influence, Washington and its friends should also highlight — whether publicly or quietly — the more exploitive aspects of Beijing’s behavior in the global south, from resource extraction, to the promotion of illiberal rulers, to a standoffish approach to debt relief.

    The U.S. mostly has President Xi Jinping to thank for the world’s major democracies becoming more aligned in their views of the Chinese challenge. Yet the geography of great-power competition is shifting, and succeeding in the developing world will require more than good luck.

  • Pope Frances Will Make 'High Risk' Official Visit To Iraq In March
    Pope Frances Will Make ‘High Risk’ Official Visit To Iraq In March

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 12/07/2020 – 23:20

    The Vatican has announced that Pope Francis plans to break his 15-month hiatus from international travel, a delay which was also largely to blame on the coronavirus pandemic, by visiting Iraq in the Spring of 2021.

    It’s being widely reported as a surprising and “risky” trip given the tense security situation there, also as COVID-19 infections spike globally. It’s planned for March 5-8.

    According to the official announcement Monday, “He will visit Baghdad, the plain of Ur, linked to the memory of Abraham, the city of Erbil, as well as Mosul and Qaraqosh in the plain of Nineveh,” said the Vatican Press Office.

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    Pope Francis with Sheikh Ahmad el-Tayeb, grand imam of Egypt’s al-Azhar mosque. Image source: CNS

    This was prompted by both an Iraqi government invitation and the desire of the local Catholic Church, represented in the Chaldean church. It’s expected that Pope Frances could during the trip declare ‘new martyrs’ or saints who were the victims of what’s remembered as the 2010 Baghdad Church Massacre. 

    During that al-Qaeda linked attack 58 Chaldean Catholics were killed after an hours-long hostage standoff in a Baghdad church. Over 100 churches and monasteries throughout the country were attacked in terrorist incidents during the US-occupation period.

    The as yet unpublished Pope’s itinerary for the Iraq visit will “take into consideration the evolution of the worldwide health emergency.” He’ll be the first Pope to ever visit the country.

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    He’s expected to emphasize that the ancient Christian presence in Iraq remains essential. Before the US invasion of Iraq to remove Saddam Hussein in 2003, there were an estimated one million to up to 1.4 million Christians in the country, mostly Catholic and Orthodox.

    However, after 2017 estimates are commonly at a much reduced 300 to 400 thousand.

    During 2014 through 2016 ISIS also drove many Christians out of the Nineveh Plains region near Mosul. While many families have returned to their villages in the area, the bulk either went to other cities in Iraq like Erbil or Baghdad, but many fled the country altogether.

    Mosul also once had a sizeable minority Christian presence of 100,000 or more, but in the past years has been completely liquidated of Christians.

  • The IMF's Net-Zero Fairy Tale
    The IMF’s Net-Zero Fairy Tale

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 12/07/2020 – 23:00

    Submitted by Rupert Darwall, senior fellow of the RealClear Foundation and author of THE CLIMATE NOOSE. Submitted by Real Clear Energy,

    With Britain, France, the European Union, and now America (soon to be under Joe Biden’s leadership) piling onto the net-zero bandwagon, you’d think that some objectivity about the economic costs and consequences about such absolutist carbon-emission policies would be in order. Traditionally, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) could be relied upon as a source of sound economic advice. No longer.

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    Under its previous managing director, Christine Lagarde, and now its current one, Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF has traded economic integrity for green wokery – thus giving governments license to push radical green policies in the false belief that there are few or no downsides.

    Covid-19 has put what might be called green millenarianism on steroids. In July, Georgieva told an interviewer that the pandemic presents a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to be part of a transformation necessary for human survival: “you don’t like the pandemic, you’re not going to like the climate disaster.” A characteristic of climate millenarianism is over-hyping of the potential damage of climate change while at the same time claiming that avoiding this damage will cost next to nothing. Thus in its most recent World Economic Outlook, the IMF implies that potentially catastrophic climate change can be avoided with a green fiscal stimulus amounting to 1 percent of GDP and carbon taxes of between $10 to $40 a ton in 2030.

    The IMF’s analysis is riddled with errors and omissions. It correctly notes that renewable energy is more labor-intensive than generating energy from fossil fuels. As the American Enterprise Institute’s Mark Perry notes, in 2019 it took 5.2 workers in wind and an astonishing 45.8 in solar to produce the same amount of electricity as one worker in nuclear, natural gas, and coal generation. That’s more jobs in wind and solar, yes, but poorly paid ones – a critical dimension of employment that the IMF entirely neglects.

    The IMF also implies that renewable energy is less capital-intensive (“reallocation of activity from high- to low-carbon sectors could therefore be more positive (less negative) for employment than investment”). This shows how little the IMF understands about the energy sector. Wind and solar are intermittent power sources, so keeping the grid stable and the lights on requires investment in parallel generating capacity. This makes renewables extremely capital-inefficient. Consider the U.K. Without renewables, the U.K. would require 22 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity to replace old coal and nuclear. With renewables, 50 GW is required – 28 GW more than without. Switching to renewables more than doubles the investment requirement.

    Economic progress and rising living standards have come from capitalism’s ability to produce more from less, through constantly improving capital and labor productivity. Widespread adoption of renewables throws this process into reverse. It is the opposite of progress. President-Elect Biden’s promised 10 million new clean energy jobs can be more than met, Perry calculates, by switching to 100% solar energy – but as he points out, “those energy jobs will come at a high price in the form of higher energy costs for consumers and businesses, less dependable electric power, more blackouts, a reduction of jobs in energy-intensive sectors, reduced economic growth and an erosion of the nation’s prosperity.”

    To derive its conclusion that net-zero would be the economic equivalent of a flea bite on global growth, the IMF uses general equilibrium modelling, which can be useful in understanding the effects of, say, a tax change, and mapping its effects throughout an economy. But equilibrium, a concept borrowed from Newtonian physics, implies regularity and stationarity, a system returning to a stable growth path as external forces unwind – conditions that don’t pertain when economies undergo forcible structural transformation lasting decades, and of a severity not seen outside wartime or the centrally planned economies of the Soviet era. The methodological assumptions of equilibrium are violated by the economic process that the method aims to model, thus rendering the IMF’s conclusions worthless.

    The most misleading claim that the IMF has seeded into public discourse concerns fossil fuel subsidies. “Fossil fuels are now massively under-priced,” the IMF asserts, with global energy subsidies amounting to $4.7 trillion in 2015, equivalent to 6.3% of global GDP. These aren’t your grandfather’s subsidies in the form of cash payments to oil producers, which is what the green lobby would like us to believe: end the subsidies, transfer the cash to clean tech, and all will be well.

    In fact, the IMF acknowledges that producer subsidies are “relatively small.” Rather, the IMF’s elastic definition of subsidy includes a $40 per ton carbon tax, speculative estimates of deaths caused by local air pollution as well as deaths from road accidents, and the cost of traffic delays. The epidemiology of PM2.5 – microscopic particles that make up an air pollution tranche – is highly uncertain, something that the IMF researchers acknowledge. A British government report concedes that unlike with smoking and lung cancer, there is no actual group of individuals whose deaths are attributable to air pollution alone. Indeed, a 2012 study analyzing data across 100 American cities found no evidence that PM2.5 concentrations had any causal impact on increasing mortality rates.

    Also problematic is the value of a statistical life assumptions used by the IMF, which are several times the actual willingness of both individuals and countries to spend money on improving health. For the U.S., local air pollution makes up around one-half the IMF’s diesel “subsidy,” and traffic congestion around three-fourths of the gasoline “subsidy.”

    Improvements to engine technology mean that modern autos are astonishingly clean. In urban centers with the most modern diesel vehicles, the exhaust can be cleaner than the intake air. The IMF would have us believe that the tailpipe is the sole source of vehicular PM2.5. According to a recent study, non-exhaust emissions are now believed to constitute the majority of primary particulate matter from road transport. Pollution from tire wear can be 1,000 times worse than what comes out of the tailpipe, and with their heavy batteries, electric vehicles will cause more air pollution from tire wear.

    The same goes for road congestion. Fossil fuels don’t cause it; vehicles do. If the IMF is against road transportation, it should say so.

    As it is, the IMF’s treatment of fossil fuel subsidies is no more than a highly sophisticated hit job. Every fairy tale needs a villain. And living happily ever after only happens in fairy tales – or in net-zero reports.

  • Swedish Central Bank Governor Slams Expansion Of QE, Gives 6 Reasons Why
    Swedish Central Bank Governor Slams Expansion Of QE, Gives 6 Reasons Why

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 12/07/2020 – 22:44

    Two weeks ago, the oldest central bank in the world, Sweden’s Riksbank stunned the world when it unveiled 40% more QE than consensus had been expecting. Specifically, the Riksbank announced that it was expanding its quantitative easing program to 700 billion kronor ($82 billion), which was 200 billion kronor more than its earlier target. To be sure, with the Riksbank having locked itself in after Governor Stefan Ingves said just a few years prior that its “experiment” with negative rates was officially over, expanding QE was the only available option unless the central bank was willing to gamble with its credibility (and until there is a far greater crisis when negative rates will be unavoidable, damn the soaring house prices).

    And while most Swedish central bankers were on board with the decision, there was at least one who hopefully sees the writing on the wall: that central banks will be able to superglue the falling house of cards for only a few more years (effectively echoing the BIS’ latest warning).

    In a jarring break with the central bank consensus, Riksbank Deputy Governor Martin Floden presented a “long list of objections to the proposed decision” to expand QE through to the end of 2021, he said in minutes from the Nov 25 policy discussion, and noting that “it is the list as a whole that leads me to enter a reservation.”

    Below we summarize his six objections (the full text is below):

    • First, it’s unlikely that further purchases will be able to push down already low bond yields to noticeably lower levels, and that
    • ” a promise today for larger asset purchases will not make monetary policy more expansionary in the near term.”
    • Second, it’s “uncertain whether asset purchases in the autumn of 2021 will make monetary policy more expansionary then.”
    • Third, “communication concerning a comprehensive purchasing program until the end of 2021 may generate more uncertainty than clarity”
    • Fourth, “the actors and markets” that the Riksbank can directly affect are still not in such an acute crisis situation as they were in the spring 
    • Fifth, “the most important mechanism is that central banks, via asset purchases, are able to remove risk from the markets.”  And since this mechanism hardly works if the Riksbank purchases government securities with short maturities, Floden doesn’t consider purchases of treasury bills to be an effective measure
    • Sixth, uncertainty over developments in the near term is high, bank needs “to take a new monetary policy decision to purchase more in the near term”

    He concluded that “instead of expanding the programme, I advocate that we communicate clearly that we will ensure that the level of interest rates remains low for a long time to come.” He was overruled.

    Floden’s Minutes excerpt is below:

    The Riksbank’s measures throughout the pandemic have been important and have resulted in a low level of interest rates and continued access to credit for companies and households. The consequences of the pandemic will impede the Swedish economy for a long time to come. The Riksbank therefore needs to ensure that the level of interest rates remains low for many years. In this way, monetary policy will facilitate an economic recovery, which will contribute to inflation ultimately rising towards the target of 2 per cent.

    So far, I agree with the reasoning behind the proposed monetary policy decision in the draft Monetary Policy Report. Nevertheless, my objections to the proposed decision are many.

    I will now present a long list of objections to the proposed decision. But the length of the list is not a good indication of how far from the proposed decision I stand. No point on my list would alone justify a reservation to the proposed decision. It is the list as a whole that leads me to enter a reservation. In addition, my opinion is that I have the same view of the need for a continued expansionary policy as the rest of the Executive Board. My reservation thus concerns how we can best design monetary policy to achieve this.

    First, the Riksbank has already decided on a comprehensive purchase programme, running until mid-2021. The programme has had a positive impact on interest rates and lending. Yields on safe assets, such as government bonds, are low at all maturities. For example, the yield on all government bonds with maturities up to 10 years is negative and thus lower than our policy rate. The yield curve is thus low and flat. Additionally, yields on riskier and less liquid assets are also low. For example, yields on mortgage and corporate bonds are lower than before the pandemic. This is contributing to low lending rates to both households and companies. My assessment is that the repo rate sets a boundary for how low all of these rates can fall. In my opinion, it is unlikely that further purchases will be able to push the rates down to noticeably lower levels. I therefore deem that a promise today for larger asset purchases will not make monetary policy more expansionary in the near term.

    Second, I consider it uncertain whether asset purchases in the autumn of 2021 will make monetary policy more expansionary then. When our previously-announced purchase programme expires in mid-2021, the Riksbank will own a large proportion of Swedish nominal government bonds and have a large holding of mortgage bonds. The Riksbank will also be a significant actor in the fairly illiquid secondary markets for municipal and corporate bonds, as well as real government bonds. I therefore consider it likely that the Riksbank will be able to hold yields on these assets at low levels by only buying assets to compensate for redemptions, or at least by purchasing new assets to a lesser extent than is now proposed in the draft decision. I do not rule out the possibility that substantial asset purchases may be justified but I do not see it as a main scenario.

    Third, I consider that communication concerning a comprehensive purchasing programme until the end of 2021 may generate more uncertainty than clarity. It is good that central banks are transparent and provide guidance on their policy rules and future plans. But the Riksbank is now a major actor on the bond markets. At present, it is not possible to predict how purchases next autumn will affect these markets. Instead of promising purchases of a certain magnitude, I think that our communication should focus on what we wish to achieve. Consequently, I would rather see us communicating that, for a long time to come, we will keep the repo rate low, ensure that the level of interest rates otherwise remains low, and make sure that lending continues to function. The tools we need to use to achieve this and the possible purchase sums that will be relevant can be assessed on an ongoing basis. Increased asset purchases may hold the level of interest rates down if risk, liquidity or term premia start to rise. But if the level of interest rates as a whole needs to be pushed down from the current level, it would probably be better to cut the repo rate instead.

    Fourth, there are situations in which we can inspire confidence by demonstrating strong initiative and preferring to do too much rather than too little. It was important that the Riksbank acted rapidly and forcefully with major support programmes at the outbreak of the pandemic in the spring. The pandemic is now getting worse again and some sectors are being very badly impacted, but the actors and markets that the Riksbank can directly affect are still not in such an acute crisis situation as they were in the spring. Our asset purchases must be balanced both against the undesirability of a central bank dominating the markets and excessively affecting price mechanisms – for example by generating abnormally low risk premia – and against large purchases leading to increased credit and, above all, interest rate risk on the Riksbank’s balance sheet.

    Fifth, I do not consider purchases of treasury bills to be an effective measure. There are various hypotheses around how and why quantitative easing works. Easing presumably acts via several different mechanisms and in different ways depending on the economic situation and institutional conditions. But perhaps the most important mechanism is that central banks, via asset purchases, are able to remove risk from the markets. This mechanism hardly works if the Riksbank purchases government securities with short maturities. These securities are liquid and secure, and lack term premia. Among other things, this can be seen by the way they are already being traded at rates that are lower than the Riksbank’s repo rate. If our ambition is to bring short-term market rates for safe assets down, this can best be achieved by cutting the repo rate.

    Sixth, uncertainty over developments in the near term is high. The spread of infection has increased substantially in recent weeks and new restrictions have been introduced. I therefore consider it positive that we are laying down a plan for asset purchases in the first quarter of next year that remains extensive. I advocate the same purchase plan for the first quarter of next year as in the proposed decision, with the exception of the SEK 10 billion intended for the purchases of treasury bills. However, conditions on the financial markets can change rapidly, in which case new measures may be needed from the Riksbank. The Riksbank therefore also needs to be prepared to adjust monetary policy before the next ordinary monetary policy meeting. But the expanded programme does not make us better equipped to react if conditions change in the near term. We are now making decisions on the rate of purchases for the first quarter in 2021. Consequently, we need to take a new monetary policy decision to purchase more in the near term, regardless of whether or not we expand the programme today.

    Instead of expanding the programme, I advocate that we communicate clearly that we will ensure that the level of interest rates remains low for a long time to come. In more concrete terms, this would involve us keeping to the previously announced programme of asset purchases for SEK 500 billion until the middle of next year and communicating our preparedness, even in the near term, either to extend the purchase programme, cut the repo rate or otherwise react to developments that otherwise would jeopardise the expansionary impact of monetary policy

  • Chinese FX Reserves Soar Most In 7 Years As Beijing Starts To Intervene Against The Soaring Yuan
    Chinese FX Reserves Soar Most In 7 Years As Beijing Starts To Intervene Against The Soaring Yuan

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 12/07/2020 – 22:37

    A little over five years since China’s 2015 devaluation, which sparked an avalanche of FX reserve liquidation as Beijing scrambled to halt a tsunami of capital outflows which at one point culminated in a furious wave of bitcoin buying by Chinese residents, China is once again adding FX reserves at a blistering pace.

    Around the same time that the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics overnight reported a surge in exports and a record trade surplus, the PBOC also reported that at the end of November, China’s Forex reserves jumped to $3.178 trillion, beating estimates of $3.15 trillion, and the highest number since August 2016.

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    And, at $50.5BN, this was also the biggest monthly increase in FX reserves since November 2013.

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    And just like the rapid collapse in yuan reserves in the 2015-2017 period was a result of Beijing’s scramble to sell dollar assets and halt the plunge in the yuan and stem the tidal wave of capital outflows, with the recent surge in FX reserves, it appears that China’s authorities are finally pushing back on yuan appreciation which has reached a level where concerns about imported deflation are starting to emerge. Furthermore, while a chunk of the jump in reserves was likely based on valuation adjustments and FX rate changes as a SAFE spokeswoman said, it is likely that the bulk was the result of USD-buying intervention.

    As Bloomberg’s Simon Flint writes, it will be interesting to see just how the authorities slow the pace of yuan appreciation: will they use the daily yuan official fixing, intervention, or further announcements of capital outflow liberalization, to slow the pace of yuan appreciation – should dollar weakness persist in the coming months.

    That said, there is always a caveat when dealing with Chinese reserve data: as Flint cautions, these estimates are based on valuation-adjustments can be flawed as we don’t know the exact composition of China’s reserves. Nor is it clear whether China revalues securities within its portfolio on a monthly basis. To get the cleanest picture of Chinese capital flows, it’s best to wait for the SAFE dataset on “cross-border RMB flows” which is Goldman’s preferred FX flow measure and which gives a far more definitive picture of what’s really happening behind China’s opaque capital firewall.

    Still, with the Chinese yuan soaring in the past 6 months as the dollar has plunged, and fast approaching where it was around the time of the August 2015 devaluation…

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    … it is only a matter of time before Beijing will have no choice but to aggressively intervene in the currency market, sending the dollar blasting off in the opposite direction.

  • This Is Going To Be The Worst Winter For The US Economy In Modern Times
    This Is Going To Be The Worst Winter For The US Economy In Modern Times

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 12/07/2020 – 22:20

    Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

    We already knew that this was going to be the worst winter for the U.S. economy since the Great Depression of the 1930s, but now a new round of lockdowns threatens to rip the guts out of hundreds of thousands of small businesses all around the country.  As I write this article, 33 million people are under “stay-at-home orders” in California alone.  With each passing day, state governments are implementing even more new restrictions, and those new restrictions are going to increasingly choke the life out of economic activity in this nation.

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    The good news is that most of the corporate giants have enough resources to weather another round of lockdowns, but countless small businesses do not.

    In San Francisco, some small businesses that have served the city for generations now find themselves on the edge of extinction…

    “I’ve been walking around the city nonstop talking to small businesses owners and every story is sadder than the next,” said Rory Cox, the founder of the newly-formed San Francisco Small Business Alliance. “Everyone is like, ‘I wake up every day and I don’t know how much longer I can do this. I had 60 employees but now all I have is six, or now it’s only me.’ These are family businesses, these are moms and dads, brothers and sisters. I feel firmly we’re the backbone of the city. And they’re destroying us, they’re ripping us apart, they’re tearing out the heart and soul of the city.”

    Traditionally, small businesses have been the primary engine of job growth in the United States, but now they are laying off workers in droves once again.

    So far this year, more than 70 million Americans have filed new claims for unemployment benefits, and this unprecedented tsunami of job losses was caused by the original round of lockdowns.

    Now a new wave of lockdowns is upon us, and there is going to be extreme economic pain all over America.

    Sometimes it can be mind numbing to talk about the millions upon millions of Americans that are now in horrifying financial distress, but each one of those individuals has a name…

    Tina Morton recently faced a choice: Pay bills — or buy a birthday gift for a child? Derrisa Green is falling further behind on rent. Sylvia Soliz has had her electricity cut off.

    Unemployment has forced aching decisions on millions of Americans and their families in the face of a rampaging viral pandemic that has closed shops and restaurants, paralyzed travel and left millions jobless for months.

    As I discussed the other day, the Aspen Institute is estimating that up to 40 million Americans could be facing eviction in 2021 because they have gotten behind on rent or mortgage payments.

    We have never seen anything like this before in all of American history.  We are literally murdering the economy, and most of the politicians that are doing this don’t seem to care.  Perhaps their jobs are secure, but there are millions of others that haven’t been able to find a new job after being laid off months ago.  In fact, the percentage of “long-term unemployed workers” as a share of all those that are unemployed is now the highest it has been during this entire pandemic…

    In November, the number of workers jobless for at least 27 weeks — economists’ barometer for “long-term” unemployment — grew by 385,000 to 3.9 million.

    That accounts for 37% of all unemployed workers — up from a third in October and 19% in September.

    And of course most of those that are still working are just barely scraping by from month to month.

    According to a survey that was just released, nearly tw0-thirds of Americans say that they are living paycheck to paycheck at this point…

    In a year still ravaged by the coronavirus pandemic and its economic fallout however, it appears many will be struggling through the most festive part of 2020. A survey finds over 60 percent of Americans say they’re now living paycheck-to-paycheck as the year draws to a close.

    The poll of over 2,000 Americans, commissioned by Highland Solutions, wanted to see how spending habits and personal finances in the U.S. are holding up during the pandemic. Their results find 63 percent of respondents have cut back on their spending due to COVID. Six in 10 say they’re doing it to be more cautious, but 49 percent add it’s because of losing income at work.

    Now this new wave of lockdowns is going to push millions more struggling Americans into poverty once they lose their jobs.

    I feel especially bad for those that have pouring blood, sweat and tears into their small businesses for years only to have them utterly destroyed by politicians like California Governor Gavin Newsom.  What one small business owner named Robert Carroll had to say about the new lockdowns in California will stay with me for a very long time…

    “We have basically been left with no options and essentially no hope for the future,” wrote Robert Carroll, the owner of the bar Sodini’s in Redwood City. “We understand COVID-19 is serious, and dangerous, however in this scenario it’s not only dangerous to our health, but our financial and mental wellbeing as well. People need to decide for themselves what risks to take, we don’t take risks at Sodini’s, we insist on masks and distancing, all we want is a CHANCE to maintain our business. If you’ve never had a dream taken away and there’s nothing you can do about it, it’s the worst feeling in the world.”

    Even in the most wildly optimistic scenario imaginable, it is hard to imagine how we could possibly avoid the most painful winter for the U.S. economy since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

    Perhaps that is why corporate insiders are now selling stocks at the fastest pace that we have seen in almost four years.

    Corporate insiders absolutely nailed the two short-term peaks in the market that we witnessed earlier this year, and now they seem to think that an even larger move down is coming.

    But ultimately what we are heading into is not just another temporary economic setback.  Sadly, the truth is that our entire system has started the process of completely melting down.

    The COVID pandemic has greatly accelerated matters, but we were going to get to this point one way or another eventually.

    Now a day of reckoning is upon us, and this winter is going to be very dark, very cold and very, very bitter.

    *  *  *

    Michael’s new book entitled “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.

  • India Faces Mass Hospitalizations As Mystery Disease Strikes
    India Faces Mass Hospitalizations As Mystery Disease Strikes

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 12/07/2020 – 22:00

    As coronavirus continues to spread across the world, a mysterious illness has been detected in India, with hundreds of people admitted to local hospitals and at least one dead. 

    New Delhi Television Limited (NDTV) reports that nearly 400 people have contracted a mystery illness that has emerged in Eluru, India. At least one person died on Dec. 5. Local health officials are baffled and have yet to find the source of the illness.

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    Source: AP

    Those who contracted the mysterious illness in the city, which is in the state of Andhra Pradesh, experienced seizures, loss of consciousness, and nausea over the weekend. 

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    This comes as Andhra Pradesh is one of the worst-affected states of COVID-19. Doctors ruled out that none of the patients were infected with the virus. 

    “All patients have tested negative for Covid-19,” Dolla Joshi Roy, the district surveillance officer of Eluru’s West Godavari District, told CNN, adding that about 180 patients out of the 300 who were admitted to the hospital have been discharged. At the same time, the rest are “stable.” She said the patient who died had similar symptoms to the others but then had a fatal but unrelated cardiac arrest. 

    Andhra Pradesh’s Health Department published a notice that the patients’ initial blood tests didn’t detect any viral infection, such as dengue or chikungunya.

    Government authorities are now testing water samples in Eluru for possible contamination after many of the patients said they received water from a similar source. 

    “The cause is still unknown but still we are doing all kinds of testing, including testing food and milk,” said Roy

    The mass hospitalization over the weekend has prompted a special team of doctors to arrive in the city early this week to conduct an investigation about possible sources of the illness. 

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      • Another Airline Announces 'COVID Passports' Will Be "Essential" For Travel
        Another Airline Announces ‘COVID Passports’ Will Be “Essential” For Travel

        Tyler Durden

        Mon, 12/07/2020 – 21:40

        Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

        Yet another airline has announced that it sees so called ‘COVID passports’, proof that travellers have been vaccinated and/or tested negative for coronavirus, as “essential” for them to be able to travel.

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        Lance Gokongwei, President and CEO of Cebu Pacific, the largest budget airline in the Philippines, made the comments to reporters Monday.

        “We do think that’s essential, especially as we open up international travel,” Gokongwei said, adding that there are “different vaccines and I think we have to work on a single, global COVID passport so that each country respects the passport.”

        Gokongwei also stated that without fears of the virus spreading being allayed by vaccination and herd immunity, “there’s nothing to be spoken about.”

        “That has to be the number one priority: to get vaccines in the hands in as much of the global population as possible, and then connecting this to a COVID passport,” he urged.

        Watch:

        Alex Jones: “The globalists are getting a bioweapon ready to lockdown the internet, and bring in world government – not now but very soon…” – June 2018

        Several other airlines have indicated that proof of vaccination, through ‘COVID passports’, will become mandatory in order to fly.

        Testing of the passports has already begun in some airports with specific airlines.

        In addition, the world’s largest air transport lobby group is developing a global ‘COVID travel pass’ app designed to link vaccination status and coronavirus test results to a person’s travel documents.

        Another ‘COVID passport’ type system known as the CommonPass, sponsored by the World Economic Forum, is under development.

        A further ‘COVID passport’ app called the AOKpass from travel security firm International SOS is currently undergoing trials  between Abu Dhabi and Pakistan.

        Hundreds of Tech companies are scrambling over themselves to develop these COVID passport systems. Anyone still labeling this a ‘conspiracy theory’ is either wilfully ignorant or just plain uninformed.

      • Wall Street Gears Up To Trade Water Futures As Scarcity Fears Surge  
        Wall Street Gears Up To Trade Water Futures As Scarcity Fears Surge  

        Tyler Durden

        Mon, 12/07/2020 – 21:20

        Freshwater is an ultimate essential resource for the human race – the loss of it would be fatal for hundreds of millions.

        For years we’ve outlined the coming water wars (see: here & here) not just in the US but across the world. 

        Starting this week, water will be joining crude, copper, soybeans, and other commodities traded on US exchanges, which suggests potential water scarcity problems could be nearing.  

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        Farmers, hedge funds, and municipalities will soon be able to trade water contracts linked to the $1.1 billion California spot water market, according to Bloomberg, citing Chicago-based CME Group. 

        Water contracts will help users manage risk and better align supply and demand. They were first announced in September as wildfires ravaged western states. 

        “Climate change, droughts, population growth, and pollution are likely to make water scarcity issues and pricing a hot topic for years to come,” said RBC Capital Markets managing director and analyst Deane Dray. “We are definitely going to watch how this new water futures contract develops.”

        Tim McCourt, global head of equity index and alternative investment products at CME, said billions of people around the world live in areas where water scarcity is a major problem.

        “The idea of managing risks associated with water is certainly increased in importance,” McCourt said. 

        Bloomberg notes the contracts are based on the Nasdaq Veles California Water Index and will be “financially settled,” as opposed to physical delivery of the resource. The index started two years ago and sets a weekly benchmark spot price for California’s water rights. Each contract size is equivalent to 10 acre-feet of water, equal to approximately 3.26 million gallons.

        Patrick Wolf, senior manager and head of product development at Nasdaq, said the new contracts will give farmers a “best guess” at how much water would cost months from now. 

        Clay Landry, managing director at consulting firm Westwater Research, which provides data to calculate the water index, said large and small agriculture businesses would be some of the first to trade the contracts. 

        “Without this tool, people have no way of managing water supply risk,” Landry said. “This may not solve that problem entirely, but it will help soften the financial blow that people will take if their water supply is cut off.”

        We may live on a “blue planet,” but with 3% of all of our water is fresh, and much of it is inaccessible – Wall Street has understood the coming scarcity of water and potential wars that could be fought over it.

      • Chicago Teachers Union Tweets Reopening Schools Would Be "Racist, Sexist, And Misogynistic"…And Then Deletes It!
        Chicago Teachers Union Tweets Reopening Schools Would Be “Racist, Sexist, And Misogynistic”…And Then Deletes It!

        Tyler Durden

        Mon, 12/07/2020 – 21:00

        UPDATE: After getting pummeled on Twitter, the CTU attempts a backpedal. No one’s buying it…

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        “…in the struggle.”

        They couldn’t even scrub the Marxism out of their climb-down. Perhaps keeping Chicago’s public schools closed until the teachers union is dissolved is the wise way to go.

        *  *  *

        As PJMedia’s Bryan Preston detailed earlier, The Chicago Teacher Union unleashed this pearl on an unsuspecting world Sunday.

        Since we knew they would delete it, we preserved it in digital amber.

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        Chicago Teachers Union really doesn’t want its teachers to have to go back work.

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        The union offered no explanation, evidence, or any other factual support for its hot take, probably figuring that including the three magic words would just do the trick on their own. But they’re not, and the tweet is being given its due even after the CTU attempted to get rid of it.

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        Tough to argue with that.

        The city has been in a tussle over when to reopen the schools for months. The union is obviously taking the position that “Never” would be a good time, as its viewpoint is based purely on politics, and even according to the people behind the critical race theory money machine, the -isms involved here will never ever go away. Ever. That would kill their golden Marxist goose. So…never reopen the schools, according to the Chicago Teachers Union.

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        We can no longer imagine such a thing. A Biden administration will only make it all worse.

        Mayor Lori Lightfoot, who is a black woman, is now saying the public schools will reopen in January. But that’s in the dead of winter, which won’t help the COVID hospitalization rate.

        Is Lightfoot racist, sexist, or a misogynist, CTU? Please show your work.

        Another fact the CTU might consider but will undoubtedly ignore is the fact that the science demonstrates clearly that schools are not COVID vectors. Even Dr. Fauci has seen the light on that.

        The CTU’s take must be based on something else.

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        We have a winner! And another. Seriously, the CTU tweet earned an epic ratio before they tried scrubbing it from the face of the earth.

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        For whatever it’s worth, Twitter didn’t slap any kind of “disputed” or “missing context” tag on the CTU’s tweet.

      • For The First Time In 10 Years Companies Will Sell More Stock Than They Buy Back
        For The First Time In 10 Years Companies Will Sell More Stock Than They Buy Back

        Tyler Durden

        Mon, 12/07/2020 – 20:40

        For US corporations, the “teens” decade – the years from 2010 to 2019 – was a historic “get rich quick” boom for management when buybacks emerged as the most powerful force levitating stocks (and equity-linked compensation) as companies collectively issued trillions in debt and used the proceeds to repurchase over $10 trillion worth of their own shares, in the process dramatically lifting the stock market and reducing the number of outstanding shares (we called it a slow-motion MBO) and pushing the S&P’s earnings per share ever higher even when there was no actual earnings growth simply because the number of shares declined year after year.

        All of that changed in 2020 when thanks to covid, central banks made a triumphal return to their core competency of propping up stocks at all costs (just moments ago we reported that the BOJ is now the single-biggest owner of Japanese stocks) and by injecting over $20 trillion in liquidity in 2020, a rate of over $1.2 billion every hour, buybacks were no longer required to push markets higher and preserve the biggest asset bubble ever created. What also changed is that since buybacks were no longer needed, with the Fed and its central bank peers backstopping all risk assets, buybacks reversed and for the first time since 2010, in 2020 companies will sell more stock than they buy back.

        As Bloomberg reports, “while American firms normally repurchase way more stock than they sell, this year has been different, as offerings by everyone from Snowflake Inc. to Warner Music Group Corp. flooded the market with shares.” It’s not just growth stocks that are rushing to capitalize from the market’s peak euphoria phase, which according to Goldman has seen positioning so “extremely stretched” it is currently in the 98th percentile in history:

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        As Bloomberg notes, companies that were hurt most during the pandemic, from airlines to cruise lines, are also rushing to raise cash and shore up balance sheets. And they are finding plenty of willing buyers.

        The result is that amid the flood of equity offerings, both initial and secondary, companies have announced plans to raise about $510 billion via share offerings in 2020, up 50% from last year, according to data compiled by EPFR. This means that for the first time since the 2009 crisis, that amount of stock sales matches the amount that companies announced they’d remove via buybacks and takeovers. For context, over the past decade an average of $3 was bought back (thanks to ultra cheap debt) for every $1 raised.

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        Normally, the reduction in buybacks would be a flashing red alert as the largest source of stock demand was no longer there. However, this is anything but “normal times”, as central banks are now injecting such an unprecedented firehose of liquidity into  markets – not the economy – even the BIS is shocked.

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        It’s also the case that normally, such a flood of selling would hit stocks simply due to excess supply. But, yet again, in this bizarro centrally-planned freakshow of a “market” nobody has any idea what will happen as Randy Frederick, VP of trading and derivatives for the Schwab Center for Financial Research, freely admits: “corporate demand is one component that drives the market higher that is no longer relevant in this risk-on atmosphere. On its own, I would not say it makes the market go down, but it might cause the market to flatten out and not go much higher.” Or it could just send stocks soaring even more; the reality is that we now live in a centrally-planned world where corporate actions no longer impact prices – those are only influenced by fund flows – and as such the surge in stock offerings could merely accelerate the melt up. Ultimately, it’s all what central banks decide.

        One thing we do know is that the explosion in offerings is finally increasing the total pool of stocks (another trend that normally pressures stock prices at market tops in the past, but again, this is anything but normal). The S&P 1500 Index divisor, a proxy for outstanding shares, has risen 0.2% this year, its first increase in 10 years according to Bloomberg data.

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        Yet another warning sign: while the boom in IPOs underscores “a robust market” according to Bloomberg, the increase in share counts could also be viewed as an indication companies are “selling high,” with valuations too attractive to resist – while being too rich to justify buybacks (or simply refusing to take a gamble to issue debt and repurchase stock at a time when the airline industry can’t get a bailout due to its chronic stock repurchases in the past decade). To be sure, at 22 times earnings, the S&P 500 trades near the highest multiple since the dot-com era.

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        “Obviously when the market is at an all-time high, you want to issue shares now, because the shares are worth a lot more than they would be if the market was tanking,” EPFR analyst Winston Chua told Bloomberg. “Looking at the market broadly, companies are not being supportive of share prices.“

        Luckily, markets no longer exist as they have been completely replaces as policy tools for activist central planners armed with money printers. It’s also why skeptics who rely on logic and fundmentals are proven wrong again and again: “There’s a lack of an incremental buyer out there, so that’s a negative, and it still signals some caution as companies let the cash accumulate,” said Mike Bailey, director of research at FBB Capital Partners. Which is true, but one just has to spin the data ever so slightly to represent it in a bullish light, as Bailey does next: “The flip side is, you are building more pressure for companies to really drop the hammer and start to buy back stock next year and into 2022.”

        That’s the scenario envisioned by Goldman chied strategist David Kostin: In 2021, he expects net share repurchases will double to $300 billion and equity issuance will fall from this year’s record high, his team forecast. After all, he has to use fundamentals to justify his 4,300 price target – saying “buy because central banks got your back” would be frowned upon.

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        Of course, for the skeptics out there who are screaming this is idiocy pure and simple, you are right… at least based on empirical data. As Bloomberg notes, Corporate actions on equities showed a close inverse relationship with the market’s performance. During the two decades through 2015, companies boosted net equity demand in 15 different years, 12 of which saw the S&P 500 gain, a study by EPFR showed. In the five years when corporate supply increased, the equity benchmark fell 60% of the time.

        But – once again – this is anything but normal times: we now live in a world where central banks have just one purpose: to keep stocks rising even higher because the moment the game of musical chairs stops, it’s all over.

        That said, there is a silver lining: companies are once again very cash rich. The new listings on U.S. exchanges have raised more than $150 billion this year. Even firms recently left for dead such as Airbnb – it rents out apartments during the worst pandemic the world has seen in a century – just filed to sell as much as $2.6 billion to cap one of the busiest years ever. Other companies planning listings include food delivery service DoorDash and video-game company Roblox.

        “In every cycle, when we say, ‘OK, that was the deal the market rolled over on,’ and all of a sudden everyone’s pulled in their horns,” said Arthur Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities Corp. “I don’t think we’re there yet, but certainly the number of deals has been pretty historic,” he added. “Companies that shouldn’t be coming out come out and there’s always a tipping point.”

        Yes Art, but thanks to Jerome Powell and his central-planning friends, “this time continues to be different.”

      • "It's Panic Porn Clickbait" – Media Scare-Stories About Hospitals Are Misleading
        “It’s Panic Porn Clickbait” – Media Scare-Stories About Hospitals Are Misleading

        Tyler Durden

        Mon, 12/07/2020 – 20:40

        You can’t turn on your TV, flip open your tablet, or scroll your social media feed today without being bombarded by horrifying stories of over-worked nurses and doctors and throat-grabbing headlines about COVID-driven hospitalizations amid the casedemic.

        Time to panic?

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        Perhaps not, as El Gato Malo (@boriquagato) notes in the following information-full twitter thread: while it’s disappointing to see that we are back in the “media scare stories about hospitals” stage, the good news is that, just like last time, this is simply not the case.

        They either have no idea what they are saying or are seeking to mislead…

        Let’s look.

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        That’s a scary headline. It’s also a false one.

        We have data on this (and so would they if they bothered to get any)

        Idaho: (as of 12/4) 57% of inpatient beds used, 14.6% covid. 74% overall ICU

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        90% of inpatient beds and ICU is normal. even 100% ICU is normal. 57% is staggeringly low, like OMG we’re all going out of business low.

        Calling that overwhelmed is outlandish.

        ICU of 74% is also low.

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        Even 100% ICU is not “full”, since all can flex to 125% – it’s federal mandate.

        Most ICU’s can flex to 150-200% – they just do not leave the beds staffed when they are not needed. it’s too expensive.

        Hospitals are like airlines or hotels: they seek to be full, not empty; building capacity you do not use is how you lose money.

        But hey, maybe they got PA right, huh?

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        Nope.

        17% covid, 73% all beds, 82% all ICU.

        Those are all low numbers, esp for this time of year. dec and jan are peak flu and pneumonia season.

        Well, maybe Texas?

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        Nope.

        15% covid, 73% all beds, 82% ICU. again, all low numbers.

        And hey, if you do not believe me, go read the article linked below – the TX hospital CEO’s will tell you the same…

        Everyone is freaking out about Texas hospitals except for the people who actually run Texas hospitals.

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        This pretty much tells you everything you need to know about the panic patrol and their relationship to facts.

        It’s hard to get much clearer than this:

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        But TX children’s hospital CEO mark wallace gave it a shot:

        “There is not a scenario, in my opinion, where the demand for our beds … would eclipse our capability,” he continued.

        “I cannot imagine that. I just cannot.”

        Seems like a classic case of “them that’s scared don’t know and them that know ain’t scared.”

        Side with them that know.

        This is not rocket science guys, it’s hospital admin 101. You can always find some 2nd year resident having a meltdown and get a scare quote. it’s why so many docs wash out of hospital practice.

        But these are low numbers, not high.

        There is no “crisis” in US hospitals, nor was there last time. Even perennial basket case NYC was never overwhelmed – they never used javits nor the hospital ship.

        Pics like this are used to scare you…

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        Then you discover it’s from 2018… in Pennsylvania.

        Huh.

        There were a zillion stories like this in 2018. It was all over NYC, you just did not notice them because it’s not really a big deal. this sort of thing happens all the time.

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        And it happens all over: “california hospitals are a war zone of flu patients”

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        Again, from 2018. Remember panicking about it? Yeah, me neither.

        It’s like the whole world, egged on by media and government seeking to frighten and inflame rather than inform has lost all historical perspective this year.

        They are telling it like it ain’t.

        It’s panic porn clickbait.

        There is no excuse for reporting like this in an age when anyone can check this tool in seconds and see the actual figures.

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        I suggest you all bookmark it – use it to check the stories you’re being told.

        The sanity you save may be your own.

        *  *  *

        (by way of background, El Gato Malo is also the Twitter-er who provided a thorough dismantling of the false-positive-PCR-Test-driven ‘casedemic’)

      • G7 Finance Ministers "Strongly Support" Regulation Of Cryptocurrencies
        G7 Finance Ministers “Strongly Support” Regulation Of Cryptocurrencies

        Tyler Durden

        Mon, 12/07/2020 – 20:20

        With bitcoin trading at fresh all time highs, if just shy of $20,000 for the time being, it was only a matter of time before the establishment renewed its calls for regulation of cryptos, especially now that official central bank digital currencies are in the process of being rolled out to enable instantaneous deposits from central banks (i.e., freshly printed currency which has no matching liability) to end-consumers in hopes of finally sparking one massive inflationary conflagration.

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        That changed today when G7 finance ministers and central bankers confirmed there is “strong support across the G7 on the need to regulate digital currencies” the Treasury Department said in a statement on Monday after a virtual meeting of the officials.

        As Reuters adds, German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz issued a sharply worded statement after the meeting, underscoring his concerns about authorizing the launch of Facebook’s Libra cryptocurrency – which was recently renamed to Diem – in Germany and Europe.

        “A wolf in sheep’s clothing is still a wolf,” he said. “It is clear to me that Germany and Europe cannot and will not accept its entry into the market while the regulatory risks are not adequately addressed.” He added: “We must do everything possible to make sure the currency monopoly remains in the hands of states.”

        Oddly enough, he had no similar negative comments about digital currencies that are endorsed by central banks. In other words, digital currencies backed by central banks, good; but bitcoin and other cryptos not backed by a central bank, bad.

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        Steven Mnuchin hosted the 12th meeting of the G7 finance officials this year related to the COVID-19 pandemic as Washington prepares to hand over the presidency of the G7 to Britain next month. The G7 finance officials discussed ongoing responses to “the evolving landscape of crypto assets and other digital assets and national authorities’ work to prevent their use for malign purposes and illicit activities,” Treasury said.

        “There is strong support across the G7 on the need to regulate digital currencies,” the G7 statement said, and reiterated support for a G7 joint statement on digital payment in October, which said digital payments could improve access to financial services and cut inefficiencies and costs, but should be “appropriately supervised and regulated.”

        In other words, the only cryptocurrency that will be permitted is one which is backstopped by a central bank.

        G7 finance officials also discussed domestic and international economic responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, and strategies to achieve a robust global recovery, the statement said.

        As we showed previously, while not nearly front-page news, the push for central bank-backed digital currencies continues, and according to a recent timeline for the ISO20022 standard, the rollout is expected to take place some time in 2022-2023, once both SFIFT and FedWire adopt the new standard.

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      • The BIS Issues A Dire Warning: "We Are Moving From The Liquidity To The Solvency Phase Of The Crisis"
        The BIS Issues A Dire Warning: “We Are Moving From The Liquidity To The Solvency Phase Of The Crisis”

        Tyler Durden

        Mon, 12/07/2020 – 20:10

        There are three certainties in life: death, taxes and the BIS – the central banks’ central bank – warning about excesses from monetary policy (the most recent amusing example of this was last October when as we wrote, “Fed Announces QE4 One Day After BIS Warns QE Has Broken The Market“). Actually, to this list of 3 certainties we can add one more: central banks roundly ignoring the warnings from the central bank mothership.

        That, however, does not prevent the BIS from continuing this trend of warnings, and today the Basel-based organization did just that when in its Quarterly Review publication it cautioned that the surge in financial markets following COVID-19 vaccine breakthroughs and the U.S. election has left asset prices increasingly stretched.

        Sounding surprisingly similar to Goldman, which as we reported earlier today issued an almost identical warning, when it observed that its sentiment indicator is now +2.0 standard deviations above average…

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        … which has left positioning extremely stretched and represents a 98th percentile reading since 2009…

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        … the BIS’ quarterly report on Monday noted how credit markets and some of world’s biggest stock markets had surpassed their pre-pandemic levels despite the significant degree of uncertainty that still remains over the pandemic as it continues to spread.

        The BIS’ perpetual skeptic, Claudio Borio, who is also Head of the BIS Monetary and Economic Department, said a rally had been justified by the vaccine news and ongoing fiscal and monetary stimulus, but there were also signs of an overshoot.

        “A certain amount of daylight between risky asset valuations and economic prospects appears to persist,” Borio said diplomatically in his latest warning that markets and equities are disconnected, adding that “questions about overstretched valuations” had already been present before the coronavirus crisis.

        As regular readers know, the views of the Basel-based BIS – which was profiled here in 2015 in “Meet The Secretive Group That Runs The World” – are often watched by economists as the world’s top central bankers take part in its behind-closed-doors meetings. They are then summarily ignored because whereas the BIS has been preaching a return to monetary orthodoxy for the past decade, that is no longer possible for central banks which have boldly entered the global Minsky Moment with helicopter money in tow.

        In any case, Borio said one of the developments it was particularly wary of was the rapid easing of stress in corporate credit markets, which recently culminated in record low junk bond yields, a paradox considering that corporate leverage hit record highs, yet perfectly understandable in light of the Fed’s backstop of the entire corporate bond market.

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        And in a dire warning that got virtually no airplay today, Borio made the following stunning announcement to reporters. “We are moving from the liquidity to the solvency phase of the crisis.”

        Translation: it’s about to get much worse, only because central banks will ignore all the warnings, they will double down on the same failed policies, pushing leverage to even record-er highs, yields to even record-er lows, and sparking a propagation of zombies the likes of which have never before been seen.

        “We should be expecting more bankruptcies going forward yet credit spreads are quite low by historical standards, and indeed while banks are pricing risk more carefully we don’t see the same in capital markets.”

        One almost sensed the futility in Borio’s comments when he said that with $17.5 trillion worth of bonds now carrying negative yields many money managers were being pushed into riskier and riskier assets.

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        Well, WHOSE FAULT IS THAT MR CHIEF HEAD OF THE MONETARY DEPARTMENT AT THE CENTRAL BANKS’ CENTRAL BANK?

        Of course, Bortio wouldn’t bring himself to admitting that the very same central banks he is “supposed” to advise are ignoring his warnings and recommendations – and are instead flooding the market with trillions in stimulus which does not flow into the economy but merely makes asset holders richer beyond their wildest imagination – as that would mean that someone, clearly not the BIS, is now in charge of monetary and economic advice at central banks.

        Which also means that the BIS is no longer relevant, having been upstaged by its constituent members.

        Maybe for his next quarterly report, Borio and his BIS colleagues can write a lengthy report discussing just who or what is now in control of global monetary policy, because the BIS’ track record has merely devolved to publishing quarterly warning after warning that everyone now openly ignores and flaunts.

        In his parting words absolution to the helicopter money insanity that has taken over, Borio had no choice but to admit that – despite his misgivings – he has to side with the central banks: “The outlook is rather uncertain and you would rather err on the side of doing too much as opposed to doing too little.”

        Brilliant… just ignore that the entire world is now on the verge of a financial cliff where the next crash will not only wipe away hundreds of trillions in wealth and destroy confidence in central banks and fiat money, but abolish the voodoo “science” that is modern economics that keeps people like Borio employed.

        It will be for the best.

      • Virginia County Rebels Against Gov. Northam's Lockdown Restrictions – Declares Itself "First Amendment Sanctuary"
        Virginia County Rebels Against Gov. Northam’s Lockdown Restrictions – Declares Itself “First Amendment Sanctuary”

        Tyler Durden

        Mon, 12/07/2020 – 20:00

        Campbell County, Virginia has rejected Democratic Governor Ralph Northam’s coronavirus restrictions – declaring itself a “First Amendment sanctuary” in a resolution which makes it the first locality in the state to openly resist Northam’s orders.

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        The County Board of Supervisors unanimously approved the measure last week in response to Northam’s pre-Thanksgiving limits on public gatherings to 25 people or fewer, as well as an extension on the state’s mask mandate to include children over the age of five. Restaurants are also prohibited from selling alcohol after 10 p.m.

        Campbell County’s resolution requests that the sheriff’s department refuse to assist any official – state or federal – in “attempting to enforce the unconstitutional order of the Governor.”

        The rebellious decision echoes a 2019 measure in which the county (which voted 71% for Trump in the 2020 election) declared itself a “Second Amendment sanctuary” as one of several counties and cities which passed similar measures rejecting new gun-control laws in the commonwealth, according to WAVY.

        A group known as the Virginia Constitutional Conservatives has played a vital role in the latest push to reject statewide guidelines, drafting a template resolution online that proposes bold provisions for constitutional officers to follow.

        The template calls for local law enforcement to arrest “any State Police officer, State Health Agent, or Federal Agent” who attempts to enforce the governor’s order and for commonwealth’s attorneys “not prosecute the unconstitutional mandates prohibiting the people’s right to peaceably assemble.” Failure to follow these clauses “will result in the immediate removal of County funding.” –WAVY

        The resolution approved by Campbell County’s board excludes language threatening budgets of sheriff’s departments and local prosecutors.

        Matt Cline, a supervisor who represents the County’s Concord district, called Northam’s order yet another example of government overreach.

        “The governor’s order restricts the First Amendment and this resolution is in support of the rights of the citizens. Local businesses are struggling, these are real problems, not a political issue,” Cline said last Wednesday. “It isn’t right or left, these are real problems, just as covid is real.”

        “It’s important to note what’s not in this resolution as well,” he added. “It doesn’t say be cavalier, or that covid is a hoax. And it doesn’t say don’t wear a mask. It’s the responsibility of the individual.”

        Campbell, located near Lynchburg, has had an average of 16 new COVID-19 cases per day in the last week out of its population of 55,000 according to the state’s health department.

      • Ahead Of Trump Vaccine EO, Pfizer & Moderna Claim Inability To Supply Further Doses Until Mid-2021
        Ahead Of Trump Vaccine EO, Pfizer & Moderna Claim Inability To Supply Further Doses Until Mid-2021

        Tyler Durden

        Mon, 12/07/2020 – 19:56

        Update (2000ET): Shortly after WaPo broke the story about Pfizer, a Moderna spokesperson said a similar story – that it has deals with many other countries and will not be able to provide any further vaccines to the US until Q2 at the earliest.

        *  *  *

        One can’t help but sense a pattern here. Having claimed (and been forced to retract) that it did not benefit from the Trump administration’s Operation Warpspeed program to accelerate development of a COVID vaccine, Pfizer tonight told The White House that the CEO would not be attending the COVID vaccine summit (after leaking data early to the Biden administration), and now tonight, The Washington Post (of all outlets) reports that, Pfizer has told the Trump administration it cannot provide additional doses of its coronavirus vaccine until late June or early July because other countries have rushed to buy up its supply.

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        The government purchased 100 million doses of Pfizer’s vaccine with an option to purchase another 500 million.

        But, WaPo claims that, according to multiple individuals familiar with the situation, Trump administration officials passed when Pfizer offered in late summer to sell the U.S. government additional doses of its Covid-19 vaccine.

        In a statement, Pfizer said that “any additional doses beyond the 100 million are subject to a separate and mutually acceptable agreement,” and that “the company is not able to comment on any confidential discussions that may be taking place with the U.S. government.”

        Pfizer spokeswoman Amy Rose declined to confirm or deny the information and said that beyond the first 100 million doses the U.S. has secured, a separate agreement would have to be reached.

        “The company is not able to comment on any confidential discussions that may be taking place with the U.S. government,” Rose said.

        However, while WaPo attempted to play up the panic and position the blame, Gen. Paul Ostrowski, who oversees logistics for Operation Warp Speed, the government’s initiative to expedite vaccine development, said:

        “I’m not concerned about our ability to buy vaccines to offer to all of the American public,” adding that “it’s clear that Pfizer made plans with other countries. Many have been announced. We understand those pieces.”

        Additionally, a spokeswoman for the Department of Health and Human Services said,

        “We are confident that we will have 100 million doses of Pfizer’s vaccine as agreed to in our contract, and beyond that, we have five other vaccine candidates.”

        The market is down modestly in the after-hours after this news…

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        But, one wonders why this pattern is occurring? Having been baptized in the fire of the last four years of deceit, we wonder if the possibility of a fast-mutating virus could mean that the much-heralded vaccines won’t stop the spread of the virus as effectively as everyone has hailed; and so, again – with pure speculation – one wonders if this move by Pfizer (through WaPo) is giving Biden some cover for when it all goes pear-shaped in H1 2021 (after the 100 days of mask-wearing), enabling him to blame Trump for lack of preparedness?

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        In other news that broke today, Fox News reports that President Trump is expected to sign an executive order Tuesday that will ensure all Americans have access to the coronavirus vaccine before the U.S. government begins aiding nations around the world.

        Senior administration officials told Fox News Monday that the president will reemphasize to the American people that the “priority has been an America First approach,” during a vaccine summit at the White House Tuesday.

        The official said that the executive order is “clear and is directing that we prioritize access to the American people before working with partners and allies to provide access to the vaccine.”

        So, one other possibility is that this is simply a negotiating ploy by Pfizer, knowing the EO will put pressure on them to deliver.

      • The Federalist Destroys Attempted Debunking Of Late-Night Ballot Malarkey In Georgia
        The Federalist Destroys Attempted Debunking Of Late-Night Ballot Malarkey In Georgia

        Tyler Durden

        Mon, 12/07/2020 – 19:45

        After explosive video was presented during a Georgia state Senate hearing which clearly shows a handful of election workers in Atlanta waiting for observers and the press to leave, before producing several containers of ballots for a late-night vote-counting party, a group called Lead Stories published a “hoax alert” which falsely claims to have debunked the footage.

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        The “hoax alert” was peddled by the Washington Post, Newsweek and others – and among other things states that government officials told them that the ballots were in “containers — not suitcases,” and that “party observers were never told to leave because counting was over for the night.”

        Nevermind the fact that Lead Stories breathlessly believes claims made by government officials – The Federalist‘s Mollie Hemingway just obliterated the entire ‘fact check,’ proving that the video hasn’t been debunked whatsoever.

        First – Party officials claim observers were never told that counting was over for the night.

        False: Georgia GOP Chairman David Shafer “has consistently said that’s what happened at State Farm Arena, beginning hours after the election.”

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        That claim, which he has repeated consistently, is backed by sworn affidavits from two Republican observers, who further allege they were kept an unreasonable distance from the ballots even while they were at State Farm Arena, making it completely impossible to meaningfully do their jobs. (The video, which shows the room from four different angles, fully supports the claim that poll watchers were kept away from meaningful observation of ballot handling.)

        The observers say that they arrived for their observation jobs around 8 p.m. They say in the first half of the 10 o’clock hour, a woman with blonde braids who appeared to be a supervisor “yelled out” to those present in the room that they would stop working for the night and would resume in the morning. The Republican poll watchers said they asked Fulton County Elections Spokesperson Regina Waller questions about the status of the ballot count multiples times but that she refused to answer. –The Federalist

        According to Lead Stories, however, “There was never an announcement made to the media and other observers about the counting being over for the night and them needing to leave, according to [Frances Watson, chief investigator for the Georgia Secretary of State], who was provided information by the media liaison, who was present.” Lead Stories doesn’t name this “media liaison,” however according to the affidavits, it was Regina Waller – the Fulton County public affairs manager for elections.

        As The Federalist‘s Hemingway notes:

        OK, so on the one hand you have sworn affidavits from observers saying that supervisors told ballot counters to go home for the evening shortly after 10 p.m. and a video showing everyone leaving en masse at that time. And on the other hand, you have two government officials promising that no one was told that counting was over.

        Hemingway further points out that ABC News reported ballot counters were sent home at the same time GOP observers say everyone was told counting had stopped.

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        So, GOP poll watchers and the MSM reported that counting was delayed.

        And it wasn’t just ABC that reported counting was being delayed. Many media outlets reported on counting delays. See, for example, “Fulton County stopped counting absentee ballots for the night.”

        Local NBC journalists on site that night independently confirmed “they were told counting was done for the night” and given no indication it would continue before the next morning. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution even reported of a “plan” to stop scanning ballots at the same time the poll watchers said things were shut down… –The Federalist

        Second claim – A designated election observer was sent by Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger’s office

        Misleading: While Newsweek – and later Lead Stories – claim that while partisan observers may not have been present for the vote count, an “unnamed state election board monitor was present.”

        A state election board monitor, who asked for his name not to be used due to safety concerns, told Lead Stories on the phone on December 3, 2020, that he was present at the vote counting location beginning at 11:52 p.m., after leaving briefly at earlier in the evening. He then stayed until about 12:45 a.m., when the work that night was completed.

        The deputy chief investigator for the secretary of state’s office was present beginning at 12:15 a.m. November 4, he said. –Newsweek

        Yet, the monitor was there for less than an hour – from 11:52 p.m. on election night to 12:45 a.m. – which means that nobody was observing the count for over an hour after the ballots began being scanned at 10:35 p.m. 

        https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

        So, the Lead Stories ‘fact check’ actually reveals that the monitor wasn’t present for much of the time in question. Meanwhile, the Secretary of State’s monitor “is the subject of an affidavit from another witness, devoted exclusively to concerns about the monitor’s conduct prior to the late hours on election day, according to a member of the Trump team. The claims include that he was sleeping on the job and staring at his phone.”

        Read the rest of the report here.

      • Bank Of Japan Is Now The Biggest Owner Of Japanese Stocks With $434 Billion Portfolio
        Bank Of Japan Is Now The Biggest Owner Of Japanese Stocks With $434 Billion Portfolio

        Tyler Durden

        Mon, 12/07/2020 – 19:25

        The Japanification of Japan continued to boldly go where no other central bank lunatic has gone before, with this surreal one-way voyage crossing a historic milestone in November when according to estimates by Shingo Ide, equity strategist at NLI Research Institute, the Bank of Japan – which unlike most developed central banks long ago dropped any pretense of not manipulating equity markets and has been buying ETFs and REITs for over a decade – took over as the biggest owner of the nation’s stocks, with the total value of its holdings climbing above a record 45 trillion yen.

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        On the back of massive ETF purchases to prop up the Japanese stock market amid the pandemic this year combined with subsequent valuation gains, the value of the BOJ’s Japanese equity portfolio has hit 45.1 trillion yen, $434 billion, in November.

        That, according to Bloomberg, marks the first time that the central bank’s holdings have eclipsed those of the other Japanese market whale, the world’s largest pension fund the Government Pension Investment Fund, whose equity holdings Ide estimated at 44.8 trillion yen last month.

        What this also means is that by matching the purchases of the country’s largest pension fund, the BOJ is effectively backstoping the country’s retirement system which would be insolvent had the BOJ not propped up the country’s equities which is where a substantial portion of retirement “wealth” is parked since JGBs yield next to nothing.

        To be sure, regardless of which Japanese whale is bigger, the massive presence of these two public entities in public “capital markets” (where independent price discovery no longer exists) has raised concerns over their influence on market prices. The combination of “a state-run institution, the BOJ, and the country’s representative public pension fund, the GPIF, buying up local equities feels distorted,” said Satoshi Okumoto, chief executive officer at Fukoku Capital Management, quoted by Bloomberg. We are confident that Satoshi realizes that without the “distorted” buying by these institutions, the Nikkei and Topix would be a fraction of its current value… and he would most likely be out of a job.

        Realizing that allocating capital to Japan’s zero-yielding bonds is a losing proposition, the GPIF increased its equity market presence in 2014 when it doubled its allocation target for local stocks to 25% as part of an effort to increase returns through a shift into riskier assets. The BOJ’s ETF purchases started in earnest in 2010 (the BOJ had been purchasing equities previously as well but with nowhere near the same “dedication”) and accelerated later as part of Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s unprecedented stimulus package aimed at revitalizing the economy.

        As shown below, the BOJ further ramped up its support program this year as the coronavirus outbreak sent equity markets tumbling, saying in March it could potentially purchase 12 trillion yen worth of Japan ETFs this year, double its annual target. After a few months of heavy buying the pace has slowed back down, and it’s likely the total for 2020 will fall short of the new theoretical limit, although we are confident the BOJ will more than make up for it over the long-term.

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        Even at the current pace, however, “the gap between the BOJ and GPIF’s stock holdings will widen further,” according to NLI’s Ide, especially if share prices continue to rise: the benchmark Topix climbed 11% in November while the Nikkei 225 Stock Average surged 15% in its best month since 1994. That pushed unrealized gains on the BOJ’s stock purchases to over 10 trillion yen at one point in November, according to Ide.

        Amusingly, Japanese strategists took time to remind readers that central banks never sell the stocks they have bought: “The BOJ has never taken profits on its holdings and only continues to build its holdings in ETFs,” said Takashi Ito, a strategist at Nomura. The GPIF, meanwhile, “has to sell equities when prices are high to adjust the weight of stock holdings within its portfolio.”

        Yet as the BOJ loads up on even more stocks, it “could face more scrutiny” over whether it needs to continue buying equities when prices are elevated like they are presently, said NLI’s Ide. BOJ Governor Kuroda has repeatedly said that the ETF purchases are needed as part of monetary stimulus to reach the BOJ’s inflation target, an excuse which in light of events in the past decade is as laughable as it is stupid now that even shoeshine boys know that the only mandate central banks have is to make sure stocks never drop and the business cycle remains dead.

      Digest powered by RSS Digest

      Dec 07

      Today’s News 7th December 2020

      • World Food Program Director: 270 Million People Now "Marching Toward Starvation" In Wake of COVID-19
        World Food Program Director: 270 Million People Now “Marching Toward Starvation” In Wake of COVID-19

        Tyler Durden

        Sun, 12/06/2020 – 23:40

        Submitted by Joseph Jankowski of Planet Free Will,

        According to the head of the World Food Program (WFP), the amount of people around the world now on the brink of starvation has doubled due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting economic effects of government reactions to the virus.

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        Director of the WFP, David Beasley, who previously warned that the “cure” for the COVID-19 pandemic should not be worse than the disease, told the United Nations General Assembly on Friday that 270 million people are now “marching towards starvation” in wake of the economic effects of the pandemic.

        “As I had warned the United Nations Security council back in April, that if we’re not careful the cure could be worse than the disease because of the economic ripple effect – if we don’t handle economic disruptions, supply chain disruptions, ect. …” Beasley told the council.

        “As we predicted back in April, the number of people that were going to be marching toward the brink of starvation had already risen from 80 million to 135 million the last four years, primarily because of man made conflict,” the director went on, adding:

        “But because of COVID it’s now spiking from 135 million people – not going to bed hungry now, [but] literally marching towards starvation – to 270 million people.”

        Beasley expressed a bleak outlook for 2021 as he believes next year is going to be “catastrophic based on what we’re seeing at this stage of the game.”

        He said that “because we’ve spent $19 trillion, that money may not, and will not most likely be available for 2021”  as economic contractions out pace the need to supply a lifeline to those starving.

        In April, Beasley pointed to an already deepening starvation crisis happening in conflict torn nations such as Yemen. He would warn that the world is “facing a perfect storm” with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and that if “funding shortfalls and disruptions to trade” could not be avoided “we could be facing multiple famines of biblical proportions within a short few months.”

        The WFP director’s shocking warning was sounded just prior to alarm bells raised by the WHO’s special envoy on COVID-19, Dr. David Nabarro, who cautioned that national lockdowns should be avoided as a primary response to COVID-19 as they have the consequence of “making poor people an awful lot poorer.”

        “Lockdowns just have one consequence that you must never, ever belittle, and that is making poor people an awful lot poorer,” Nabarro said in October.

        In May, UNICEF predicted that in 118 low and middle-income nations, 1.2 million children under the age of five could die in the following six months because of the surge of declining access to medical care “due to lockdowns, curfews and transport disruptions.”

        Starvation as a result of the pandemic and the resulting lockdowns is not unique to nations at the bottom of the economic rung.

        Feeding America, a US based non-profit organization that operates a network of food banks, is predicting that one out of every four children in America could suffer from hunger by the end of 2020.

      • Canada Warns Conspiracy Theorists Could Burn 5G Towers, Claiming Link To Virus 
        Canada Warns Conspiracy Theorists Could Burn 5G Towers, Claiming Link To Virus 

        Tyler Durden

        Sun, 12/06/2020 – 23:15

        A conspiracy theory linking 5G to the coronavirus has spread like wildfire this year. In April, numerous 5G towers were set on fire by folks in Britain who believed that radiation from the towers was contributing to the spread of COVID-19.

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        Now Canada’s intelligence service has warned in a new confidential report, seen by Global News, that violent extremists could be ready to attack 5G wireless communication towers.

        “As companies begin 5G infrastructure construction in earnest, extremists from across the IMV extremist landscape could engage in acts of arson and vandalism against that infrastructure,” Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) wrote in the report. 

        The confidential report comes amid a wave of COVID-19 disinformation swirling around internet forums that suggest 5G technology could spread the virus. 

        “Given the extraordinary effect the COVID-19 pandemic has created on the lives of individuals across the world, CSIS is mindful that certain threat actors, across multiple threat landscapes, may seek to take advantage to advance their own interests,” CSIS spokesperson John Townsend said.

        Global News lists some of the most most popular COVID-19/5G conspiracy theories: 

        Perhaps the most elaborate asserts that 5G was designed by governments to depopulate the world, and is part of a broader conspiracy theory called Agenda 21 that imagines the United Nations is trying to establish a new world order.

        None have any scientific validity, but white supremacists, neo-Nazis and anarchists have all adopted COVID-19 conspiracy theories to varying degrees, while the anti-vaxxer movement has promoted the notion that 5G is responsible for spreading COVID-19.

        CSIS said physical opposition to 5G wireless communication towers is significantly less when compared to other countries in Europe. 

        However, it said “Canadian-based online communities” were pumping 5G conspiracy and far-right extremist groups were attempting to “capitalize on ‘5G hysteria.'”

        CSIS noted there had been a handful of incidents in the country of cellphone towers being damaged. The most significant attack was in Laval, Quebec, in April, where one tower was torched and sustained one million dollars in damage. In early May, at least six towers were torched in Montreal.

      • Escobar: There's No Escape From Our Techno-Feudal World
        Escobar: There’s No Escape From Our Techno-Feudal World

        Tyler Durden

        Sun, 12/06/2020 – 22:50

        Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Asia Times,

        The political economy of the Digital Age remains virtually terra incognita. In Techno-Feudalism , published three months ago in France (no English translation yet), Cedric Durand, an economist at the Sorbonne, provides a crucial, global public service as he sifts through the new Matrix that controls all our lives.

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        Durand places the Digital Age in the larger context of the historical evolution of capitalism to show how the Washington consensus ended up metastasized into the Silicon Valley consensus. In a delightful twist, he brands the new grove as the “Californian ideology”.

        We’re far away from Jefferson Airplane and the Beach Boys; it’s more like Schumpeter’s “creative destruction” on steroids, complete with IMF-style “structural reforms” emphasizing “flexibilization” of work and outright marketization/financialization of everyday life.

        The Digital Age was crucially associated with right-wing ideology from the very start. The incubation was provided by the Progress and Freedom Foundation (PFF), active from 1993 to 2010 and conveniently funded, among others, by Microsoft, At&T, Disney, Sony, Oracle, Google, and Yahoo.

        In 1994, PFF held a ground-breaking conference in Atlanta that eventually led to a seminal Magna Carta: literally, Cyberspace and the American Dream: a Magna Carta for the Knowledge Era, published in 1996, during the first Clinton term.

        Not by accident the magazine Wired was founded, just like PFF, in 1993, instantly becoming the house organ of the “Californian ideology”.

        Among the authors of the Magna Carta we find futurist Alvin “Future Shock” Toffler and Reagan’s former scientific counselor George Keyworth. Before anyone else, they were already conceptualizing how “cyberspace is a bioelectronic environment which is literally universal”. Their Magna Carta was the privileged road map to explore the new frontier.

        Those Randian heroes

        Also not by accident the intellectual guru of the new frontier was Ayn Rand and her quite primitive dichotomy between “pioneers” and the mob. Rand declared that egotism is good, altruism is evil, and empathy is irrational.

        When it comes to the new property rights of the new Eldorado, all power should be exercised by the Silicon Valley “pioneers”, a Narcissus bunch in love with their mirror image as superior Randian heroes. In the name of innovation they should be allowed to destroy any established rules, in a Schumpeterian “creative destruction” rampage.

        That has led to our current environment, where Google, Facebook, Uber, and co. can overstep any legal framework, imposing their innovations like a fait accompli.

        Durand goes to the heart of the matter when it comes to the true nature of “digital domination”: US leadership was never achieved because of spontaneous market forces.

        On the contrary. The history of Silicon Valley is absolutely dependent on state intervention – especially via the industrial-military complex and the aero-spatial complex. The Ames Research Center, one of NASA’s top labs, is in Mountain View. Stanford was always awarded juicy military research contracts. During WWII, Hewlett Packard, for instance, was flourishing thanks to their electronics being used to manufacture radars. Throughout the 1960s, the US military bought the bulk of the still infant semiconductor production.

        The Rise of Data Capital, a 2016 MIT Technological Review report produced “in partnership” with Oracle, showed how digital networks open access to a new, virgin underground brimming with resources: “Those that arrive first and take control obtain the resources they’re seeking” – in the form of data.

        So everything from video-surveillance images and electronic banking to DNA samples and supermarket tickets implies some form of territorial appropriation. Here we see in all its glory the extractivist logic inbuilt in the development of Big Data.

        Durand gives us the example of Android to illustrate the extractivist logic in action. Google made Android free for all smartphones so it would acquire a strategic market position, beating the Apple ecosystem and thus becoming the default internet entry point for virtually the whole planet. That’s how a de facto, immensely valuable, online real estate empire is built.

        The key point is that whatever the original business – Google, Amazon, Uber – strategies of conquering cyberspace all point to the same target: take control of “spaces of observation and capture” of data.

        About the Chinese credit system…

        Durand offers a finely balanced analysis of the Chinese credit system – a public/private hybrid system launched in 2013 during the 3rd plenum of the 18th Congress of the CCP, under the motto “to value sincerity and punish insincerity”.

        For the State Council, the supreme government authority in China, what really mattered was to encourage behavior deemed responsible in the financial, economic and socio-political spheres, and sanction what is not. It’s all about trust. Beijing defines it as “a method of perfecting the socialist market economy system that improves social governance”.

        The Chinese term – shehui xinyong – is totally lost in translation in the West. Way more complex than “social credit”, it’s more about “trustworthiness”, in the sense of integrity. Instead of the pedestrian Western accusations of being an Orwellian system, priorities include the fight against fraud and corruption at the national, regional and local levels, violations of environmental rules, disrespect of food security norms.

        Cybernetic management of social life is being seriously discussed in China since the 1980s. In fact, since the 1940s, as we see in Mao’s Little Red Book. It could be seen as inspired by the Maoist principle of “mass lines”, as in “start with the masses to come back to the masses: to amass the ideas of the masses (which are dispersed, non-systematic), concentrate them (in general ideas and systematic), then come back to the masses to diffuse and explain them, make sure the masses assimilate them and translate them into action, and verify in the action of the masses the pertinence of these ideas”.

        Durand’s analysis goes one step beyond Soshana Zuboff’s The Age of Surveillance Capitalism when he finally reaches the core of his thesis, showing how digital platforms become “fiefdoms”: they live out of, and profit from, their vast “digital territory” peopled with data even as they lock in power over their services, which are deemed indispensable.

        And just as in feudalism, fiefdoms dominate territory by attaching serfs. Masters made their living profiting from the social power derived from the exploitation of their domain, and that implied unlimited power over the serfs.

        It all spells out total concentration. Silicon Valley stalwart Peter Thiel has always stressed the target of the digital entrepreneur is exactly to bypass competition. As quoted in Crashed: How a Decade of Financial Crises Changed the World, Thiel declared, “Capitalism and competition are antagonistic. Competition is for losers.”

        So now we are facing not a mere clash between Silicon Valley capitalism and finance capital, but actually a new mode of production: a turbo-capitalist survival as rentier capitalism, where Silicon giants take the place of estates, and also the State. That is the “techno-feudal” option, as defined by Durand.

        Blake meets Burroughs

        Durand’s book is extremely relevant to show how the theoretical and political critique of the Digital Age is still rarified. There is no precise cartography of all those dodgy circuits of revenue extraction. No analysis of how do they profit from the financial casino – especially mega investment funds that facilitate hyper-concentration. Or how do they profit from the hardcore exploitation of workers in the gig economy.

        The total concentration of the digital globe is leading to a scenario, as Durand recalls, already dreamed up by Stuart Mill, where every land in a country belonged to a single master. Our generalized dependency on the digital masters seems to be “the cannibal future of liberalism in the age of algorithms”.

        Is there a possible way out? The temptation is to go radical – a Blake/Burroughs crossover. We have to expand our scope of comprehension – and stop confusing the map (as shown in the Magna Carta) with the territory (our perception).

        William Blake, in his proto-psychedelic visions, was all about liberation and subordination – depicting an authoritarian deity imposing conformity via a sort of source code of mass influence. Looks like a proto-analysis of the Digital Age.

        William Burroughs conceptualized Control – an array of manipulations including mass media (he would be horrified by social media). To break down Control, we must be able to hack into and disrupt its core programs. Burroughs showed how all forms of Control must be rejected – and defeated: “Authority figures are seen for what they are: dead empty masks manipulated by computers”.

        Here’s our future: hackers or slaves.

      • Trump Terminates Chinese Cultural Exchange Programs, Decries "Soft Power Propaganda Tools"
        Trump Terminates Chinese Cultural Exchange Programs, Decries “Soft Power Propaganda Tools”

        Tyler Durden

        Sun, 12/06/2020 – 22:25

        It’s but the latest in what has become near daily punitive actions leveled against China by the Trump administration, which as promised looks to continue right up until Trump leaves office next month.

        On Friday the State Department announced it has shut down five cultural exchange programs, the origins of which go back a half-century, calling them “soft power propaganda tools,” according to Reuters.

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        AP file image

        The programs were set up after the establishment of the Mutual Educational and Cultural Exchange Act in 1961, signed into law by President John F. Kennedy which was aimed at boosting cultural educational ties with foreign countries. 

        The programs which have been “terminated” according to the announcement on the State Department’s website include the Policymakers Educational China Trip Program, the U.S.-China Friendship Program, the U.S.-China Leadership Exchange Program, the U.S.-China Transpacific Exchange Program and the Hong Kong Educational and Cultural Program.

        “While other programs funded under the auspices of the [Mutual Educational and Cultural Exchange Act] are mutually beneficial, the five programs in question are fully funded and operated by the PRC government as soft power propaganda tools,” the statement said.

        “They provide carefully curated access to Chinese Communist Party officials, not to the Chinese people, who do not enjoy freedoms of speech and assembly,” it added.

        Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the US would only maintain those foreign cultural exchange programs that “reciprocal and fair,” however while suggesting the Chinese programs are “one-way programs” that are “not mutually beneficial.”

      • Election Day Info Blackout Shows US Media Is No Friend Of The People. Americans Must Demand Better
        Election Day Info Blackout Shows US Media Is No Friend Of The People. Americans Must Demand Better

        Tyler Durden

        Sun, 12/06/2020 – 22:00

        Authored by Robert Bridge via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

        While half of the United States is mesmerized by witness testimony describing the ‘irregularities’ that purportedly occurred in the 2020 presidential contest between the incumbent Donald Trump and Joe Biden, the other half has been left deliberately in the dark by an activist media.

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        It has become almost a cliché to say that the United States is now fiercely divided into parallel universes, alternative realities, otherwise known as the Republican and Democratic camps. One of the primary reasons for this great divide, aside from the obvious ideological differences, is that just one side, that is, the left, predominantly controls the flow of news and social media content.

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        Indeed, the ‘legacy media’ even feels itself bold enough to cast judgment on presidential messages via Twitter in real time. If ever there was a recipe for disaster, as the most consequential election in recent memory remains up for grabs, this is it.

        On November 30, Bobby Piton, a mathematician and expert, testified at the Arizona voter fraud hearing where he provided compelling evidence that up to 300,000 “fake people” cast a vote in the contested election of Nov. 3. The data, if correct, was alarming in its implications since it meant the difference between Trump or Biden winning the fiercely contested swing state. Certainly the major media networks, in the interest of safeguarding the voting process and consequentially democracy itself, would be interested in providing its viewers with such news, right? Think again.

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        Not only was Piton’s riveting testimony sent to the memory hole by all of the ‘legacy’ media networks, but Twitter actually decided to block his account the very next day. Piton was treated as yet another ‘conspiracy theorist’ nutcase who will probably need to enter some sort of re-indoctrination internment camp before he can join polite society again. He certainly won’t be in need of company if the thought police get their way.

        Just days earlier, the social media platform also suspended the account of Pennsylvania state senator Doug Mastriano, who testified at that state’s election hearing. Twitter later said that Mastriano’s suspension was a “glitch,” which begs the question as to why these technological breakdowns almost always, without fail, target Republicans.

        The very same media blackout has hit dozens of other poll watchers, regular citizens with no political ax to grind who had the courage to come forward and relay their stories in the hope of protecting America’s democratic process. Their reward has been crickets from the media industrial complex, which is essentially telling those witnesses that their stories do not matter; only the stories that are peddled to them from the corporate masters are all that count.

        Such medieval rationale applies even to the President of the United States, who gave what he said was possibly “the most important speech I’ve ever made.”

        “We used to have what was called ‘Election Day,’ but now we have Elections Days, Weeks and Months, and lots of bad things happened during this ridiculous long period of time,” Trump said in his 46-minute statement from the White House.

        The American leader then proceeded to provide the various ways that the U.S. election system has come under “coordinated assault and siege,” as he described it. Naturally, Twitter tagged the presidential message by saying “This claim about election fraud is disputed.” Imagine, if you will, what the response would have been had the media titans dared to interrupt one of FDR’s famous fireside chats with a message disputing the veracity of the claims.

        https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

        In any case, the media, acting, or not acting, in absolute lockstep (jackboot?) synchronicity, decided that the U.S. leader’s remarks were not important enough for the American people to hear. Chris Cuomo, CNN talking head, explained his network’s decision to blank the president’s “tirade.”

        “Here’s the fact,” Cuomo began. “Trump is the least of our problems. He is a simple study at this point. Trump is toxic. Period. Sure, he’s going to go out with a bang as in trying to blow up as much as he can. He is absolutely trying to make nothing better, despite the fact that America is in a time of abject crisis.”

        Was Cuomo talking about the election crisis that has left the United States without any idea who will be its next president, and especially more now that new evidence of foul play are emerging every single day? Of course not. CNN (which Project Veritas just demonstrated has a very big dog in the outcome of the ongoing race) has decided for their audiences, who apparently can’t be trusted to make decisions for themselves, that what the U.S. leader has to say is not important because…yes, Covid, the disease that just keeps giving the Democrats excuses to kill any semblance of democratic principles left in the country.

        Cue the hysteria.

        “He’s not working on the pandemic that is worse than ever,” crazy Cuomo continued.

        “He’s not making a deal on relief when more people are struggling to put food on the damn table [cue the violins] than at any time in this country since my parents were babies during the Great Depression.”

        In other words, Trump is acting like a monster for considering the integrity of the most consequential election in U.S. history when there is a virus on the loose that leaves 99.8 of its ‘victims’ alive and well.

        Judging by CNN and the rest of the mainstream media’s breathtaking arrogance, it is not so hard to imagine a day when the president – whether he or she be Trump or some other nation-loving populist – is outright denied the ability to transmit information over social media, while being deprived of the necessary news coverage, as is already the case with the 45th POTUS. This is the pinnacle of corporate power, or rather the abuse of corporate power.

        Such a turn of events in the ‘land of the free’ should be of massive concern for both Democrats and Republicans. Yet partisan politics is winning the day, as the Democrats and their lapdog liberal media believe they have sealed the White House. And perhaps they have. But such a victory will be short-lived as corporate power will not stop at Washington, D.C., but will go on to ravage every last remnant of freedom and democracy in the country. It goes without saying that fake elections supported by fake media will never nurture the conditions for a thriving democracy.

      • Iran Says Nuclear Scientist Was Assassinated Using Satellite-Controlled Gun
        Iran Says Nuclear Scientist Was Assassinated Using Satellite-Controlled Gun

        Tyler Durden

        Sun, 12/06/2020 – 21:35

        Iranian nuclear scientist and military researcher Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was assassinated using sophisticated electronic equipment controlled via satellite link, the semi-official Mehr news agency reported.

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        Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, who was killed in a gun and car bomb attack on the outskirts of Tehran on Nov. 27, was driving on a highway east of the capital when the weapon “zoomed in” on him “using artificial intelligence,” Mehr said on Sunday, quoting Commodore Ali Fadavi, deputy commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. As General Ramezan Sharif, IRGC spokesman added, “the assassination of a scientist on the street with a satellite device can not undermine our security.”

        According to Bloomberg, various accounts of the assassination have emerged since the incident. While early news reports said he was caught in a gunfight between his bodyguards, others said that in a scene seemingly inspired by Breaking Bad, he was fired at by a remote-controlled machine gun mounted on a pick-up truck operated by someone who later fled the country.

        Last week the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Ali Shamkhani, said a remotely controlled weapon was used in the ambush that claimed the scientist’s life. The operation was “very complicated” and didn’t require human presence on the site at the time of the attack.

        The incident is the second targeted killing of a high-ranking Iranian official since January, when outgoing U.S. President Donald Trump ordered a drone strike on General Qassem Soleimani.

        Iranian officials have accused Israel of masterminding Fakhrizadeh’s assassination. Iranian media reported that the remains of the weapon that killed him, which was recovered from the scene, indicated that it originated from the Israeli military. In response, Israeli Intelligence Minister Eli Cohen said his government had no idea who killed Fakhrizadeh, but added that whoever did made the world a safer place because the Iranian physicist took “an active part in creating a nuclear weapon.”

        Iran has denied trying to militarize its nuclear research, saying it’s purely civilian in purpose.

      • The Hype Surrounding Environmental, Social, And Governance Investing
        The Hype Surrounding Environmental, Social, And Governance Investing

        Tyler Durden

        Sun, 12/06/2020 – 21:10

        Authored by Robert Wright via The American Institute for Economic Research,

        ESG (environment, social, and governance) funds are the hottest investments going. The only problem is that they are like free trade coffee — the consumer (investor) pays more for the same product. They might “feel good” in the process but their feelings are irrational because they are paying for a brand label rather than anything substantive. No subset of investors, after all, can permanently change the world through their preferences.

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        A recent study by Barclays shows that while one in four investment dollars are currently in mutual funds labeled ESG, most investors do not realize that those funds are virtually indistinguishable from non-ESG-labelled funds in terms of portfolio composition or returns. Only fees differ and, unsurprisingly, are considerably higher for ESG-labeled funds — on average almost 0.75 percent vs. less than 0.50 percent for non-ESG-labeled funds.

        P.T. Barnum once claimed that there is a sucker born every minute but thanks to population growth and an increasingly complex world, it is closer today to every second. You’ve heard them in the supermarket: “Oh ma Gah, these eggs cost twice as much as those eggs but these ones are la tautly organic, tautly.” 

        Maybe some organic eggs are different but in an effort to stay at least six meters from others, for their safety of course, I accidentally saw empty crates of dollar per dozen bulk food club eggs suspiciously close to $4 per dozen “organic” eggs for sale at a roadside Jersey farm produce stand over the mild Thanksgiving holiday. “That’s a lot of eggs,” I said after returning to the front of the stand when the old people finally cleared, “Where are all the chickens?” 

        “Oh, we buy them from the farmer down the road,” the purveyor said.

        “Uh-huh,” I responded, “you mean Sam’s … place off Berlin-Cross Keys Road?” a veiled reference to the Sam’s Club there. The icy stare and I assume bared teeth behind her mask meant it was time for this cowboy to mosey along, organic eggless and friendless.

        Shouldn’t I have stayed and warned everyone about this egg arbitrage outfit? After all, we learned this summer that many on the Left believe that if you aren’t actively anti-fraud, you are pro-fraud. I agree, so beware those selling organic this and that as it may just be the same old product, made the same old way, but with a new label and at a special P.T. Barnum price. 

        But organic food fraud is small potatoes compared to ESG-labelled funds. If they charge just 0.25 percent higher fees for essentially nothing extra in return, irrational investors are gifting the fund managers big bucks, billions of extra fees per year in an industry with $18 trillion under management.

        No, I do not think we need additional government regulation, I think we need investors (citizens, neighbors) who are rational and informed, who care about actual outcomes and not just feeling good through virtue signalling. It is no virtue, after all, to invest in something merely because it is labelled something that sounds or seems good.

        The simple fact of the matter is that governments, not voluntary associations like corporations, cause most of the world’s problems and voluntary associations, not governments, could provide most of the solutions. If people really cared about the environment, for example, they would shrink the size of government and allow voluntary associations to do more.

        Private ownership of land and animals is the surest way of promoting actual biodiversity. While some tracts may be ravaged for resources, many people care deeply about the environment and are happy to pay for the permanent preservation of habitat and animal species great and small.

        Consider, for example, the Pennypack Trust, which for exactly 50 years has been preserving hundreds of acres of meadows and forest floodplains along Pennypack Creek just 15 miles north of Center City Philadelphia. How many more such local endeavors would have arisen if taxes were not so … robust?

        “But,” you can almost hear the central planners retort, “some projects are too big for private initiative.” Maybe, but probably not. Consider the American Prairie Reserve, a Montana nonprofit bigger than some New England states dedicated to preserving massive swathes of the northern Great Plains shortgrass prairie ecosystem, from bison to prairie dogs and all the sundry delish types of vegetation they eat. 

        The APR’s success is due to the tight budget constraints it faces, not massive investments from governments or ESG investors. It buys or leases land strategically to connect islands of state and federal land to preserve or restore wildlife migration corridors and provide large, unbroken patches of habitat. It’s rational, i.e., sustainable, environmentalism at its finest and could be replicated the continent over if investors simply donated those extra ESG fees to market-based environmental groups.

        Unfortunately, as comedian George Carlin liked to remind us, most Americans are “stupid.”

        When they read “market-based” they think “greedy bastards” instead of “efficient,” even when only well-governed nonprofits are involved.

        Of course nonprofits cannot meet all our desires, so for-profit investment has a role to play in the market-based environmental movement as well. Environmentally-conscious investors and fund managers seem not to realize that “profit maximization” is simply another way of saying “waste minimization.” That is a good thing, right? Don’t we all naturally want to invest in waste minimizing/profit maximizing companies anyway? 

        So what is ESG really about? I doubt anything substantive but, perhaps, someday ESG-labelled funds will actually be ESG funds, or in other words will meaningfully differentiate between ESG and “wicked” companies. But then, as the Financial Times recently pointed out, they will face a conundrum. To the extent ESG successfully diverts investment away from “wicked” companies, their share prices will decline, i.e., they will become inexpensive and hence set up to outperform so long as any subset of investors continues to maximize returns/minimize waste. 

        Meanwhile, the shares of ESG companies will get wicked expensive as more and more money piles into them. At that point, with the expectation of low returns on ESG and high ones on “wicked” stocks, virtue investors and ESG fund managers will have to eat palpably lower returns or creatively reclassify “wicked” companies to get higher performing stocks into their portfolios, i.e., destroy the meaningful differentiation between ESG and “wicked” companies once again. 

        Short of a completely command economy, “wicked” companies will always find investors willing to earn excess returns no matter how many ESG investors choose to continue to stew in low returns. After all, even truly wicked, illegal companies engaged in drug, gun, or human trafficking face few financing constraints. Law enforcement can run illegal businesses up the security market line (more risk but more reward) but can’t run them all off because their very success at forcing exit through incarceration creates market conditions conducive to new entrants. 

        In the end, then, the hip hop group Public Enemy was actually the investing public’s friend; when it comes to ESG, “Don’t Believe the Hype” because investors “Can’t Truss It.”

      • US Reports Record COVID Hospitalizations, 20K+ Patients In ICU: Live Updates
        US Reports Record COVID Hospitalizations, 20K+ Patients In ICU: Live Updates

        Tyler Durden

        Sun, 12/06/2020 – 20:55

        Summary:

        • US ICU patients top 20K
        • Azar says vaccines widely available by Q2
        • US cases top 200K for 4th day
        • NJ reports record 6K+ new cases
        • US deaths highest since springtime peak
        • NYC positivity rate tops 5%
        • Bavaria orders new lockdown
        • Italy outbreak improves
        • Indonesia receives first shipment of Sinovac doses
        • Polish deaths slow
        • Queen Elizabeth to get vaccine

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        Update (1800ET): Not only did US hospitalizations reach yet another new record on Sunday, the number of patients across the US in the ICU has topped 20K for the first time.

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        DHHS chief Alex Azar took to ABC’s “This Week” with George Stephanopoulos on Sunday to tell Americans that FDA emergency approval of a vaccine could arrive ‘within days’, while also moving up the timeline, saying any American who wants a COVID vaccine could get one by the start of the second quarter. 

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        Previously, federal public health officials and ‘Operation Warp Speed’ had targeted the beginning of Q3 as the time when the vast majority of Americans would at least have access to a vaccine. Let’s not forget: Pfizer has already sown doubts about these timelines and targets by slashing its 2021 year-end delivery target by 50%.

        A video of DoubleLine’s Jeff Gundlach expressing skepticism about the vaccine’s efficacy has been making the rounds on Twitter. But while severel “listen to the science” types took Gundlach to task for warning that the virus’s mutations could ultimately make it more difficult to eradicate, the NFL has just delivered an important reminder that there are different strains of the virus – and some are appreciably deadlier than others.

        In the US, the COVID-19 numbers are still rising as temperatures continue to fall; Winter looms in the Western hemisphere, and the US has been confirming new COVID-19 cases at a rate of more than 200k/day for the last four days. Hospitalizations climbed north of 101K, a new record, while the 7-day average for daily fatalities hit a new post-springtime high of 2,123, according to the COVID Tracking Project.

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        Though the 7-day average remains at its post-springtime highs, deaths have actually been declining for four days now since hitting their latest record…

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        …as this past week remains unquestionably the most severe since the start of the pandemic.

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        New Jersey reported another record single-day number for new cases on Sunday, virtually guaranteeing that Garden State residents will be placed on lockdown in the coming days, just as new ‘stay at home’ orders are being imposed across California, with the entire state expected to soon reach the threshold. New Jersey reported a record 6.05K cases, while there were 3,241 hospitalizations, a slight decrease from the previous day. The latest positive-test rate posted on the state COVID-19 website was 11.65%,, a decrease from several days ago. Meanwhile, another 16 people died, for a total of 15,485.

        As the rest of California waits to reach the threshold, 27MM are already on lockdown in LA.

        NYC’s outbreak also continued to spread, with Mayor Bill de Blasio reporting 2.26K new infections and 165 new hospitalizations, both increases over the previous day. Meanwhile, the city’s positive test rate ticked higher to 5.1%. .

        As case numbers reach new highs in the US, Europe’s outbreak is rolling over, though some EU countries – most notably, Germany – are still very much struggling to tamp down cases and protect hospital capacity. In Bavaria, one of Germany’s hardest hit regions, where case numbers have been stubbornly persistent, officials imposed a new lockdown that will start Dec. 9.

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        Circling back to the US, the northeast is being hit pretty hard as temperatures fall, with deep-blue Connecticut, praised for its early ability to keep numbers low with tight restrictions during the quarantine period, is surging past its neighbors as cases spread.

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        Across all four regions, the median age of people being diagnosed is falling.

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        Here’s some more news from overnight and Sunday morning:

        Italy’s outbreak continued to slow on Sunday as the government prepares to ramp up restrictions ahead of the Christmas holiday season. The country reported 18.9K new infections compared 20.7K a week ago, and hospital and intensive therapy occupation also declined. The positivity rate rose to 11.6% amid lower-than-usual testing at Sunday. Deaths fell to 564 vs. 662 on Saturday (Source: Bloomberg).

        Iran’s daily death toll dropped below 300 for the first time in six weeks, with 294 fatalities overnight. The number of new infections fell for a third straight day to 11.6K. The country now has 50,310 deaths and 1,040,547 confirmed cases (Source: Bloomberg).

        Indonesia received its first shipment of coronavirus vaccine from China on Sunday, President Joko Widodo said, as the government prepares to launch its mass inoculation program. Jokowi, as the president is widely known, said in an online briefing that the Southeast Asian country received 1.2 million doses from China’s Sinovac Biotech Ltd., a vaccine Indonesia has been testing since August (Source: Nikkei).

        Polish Covid-19 deaths dipped to 228 in the last 24 hours from 502 on Saturday, potentially indicating the virus is loosening its grip on central and eastern Europe’s largest economy. New infections fell to a daily average of 11,196 this week from 17,677 last week. The country’s schools remain closed. Shopping centers reopened on Nov. 28 (Source: Bloomberg).

        Queen Elizabeth II, 94, and her husband, Prince Philip, 99, will likely receive the Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine within weeks (Source: the Daily Mail).

      • Bankers & Traders Deemed "Essential", Will Receive Priority Access For COVID Vaccines
        Bankers & Traders Deemed “Essential”, Will Receive Priority Access For COVID Vaccines

        Tyler Durden

        Sun, 12/06/2020 – 20:45

        Just like they were deemed ‘essential’ during the lockdown, ‘financial services’ employees – a vague, all-encompassing designation that includes everyone from bank tellers to traders and IBD analysts – are expected to be deemed “essential” by the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, or ACIP, the agency that will ultimately decide who gets priority access to the COVID vaccines.

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        Before COVID, the ACIP was a sleepy organization that determined esoteric standards and handled oversight of approving new vaccines. DHS has defined essential workers as ‘those who conduct a range of operations and services that are typically essential to continue critical infrastructure operations.’ But as for what those professions are, exactly – well, that’s entirely up to the ACIP.

        The DHS has defined financial services workers as “essential” because they help keep the money flowing, financing trade and investment and everything else. Without them, the Fed might need to resort to direct capital injections.

        That includes everyone from bank tellers, to the traders and analysts and even back office workers who keep America’s banks running.

        Even if progressives like AOC and her fellows in ‘the Squad’ try to put a stop to this, arguing that bankers and analysts and traders don’t deserve priority over more ‘oppressed’ classes, states and local governments might have final discretion over who actually gets the vaccine, meaning that a major kerfuffle at the federal level might not actually stop Gov. Cuomo from quietly ensuring that his pals on Wall Street get the vaccines they need.

        At least then they won’t be tempted to resort to the inevitable black market.

      • Saudis Raise Crude Prices To Asia For First Time In 4 Months After OPEC+ Deal
        Saudis Raise Crude Prices To Asia For First Time In 4 Months After OPEC+ Deal

        Tyler Durden

        Sun, 12/06/2020 – 20:20

        Just day after OPEC+ reached an agreement to ease production curbs (in order to keep UAE happy) but assess production levels monthly in order to ensure that oil prices don’t slide after reaching an 8 month high on covid vaccine optimism, Saudi Arabia raised oil pricing for customers on Sunday for its main market of Asia.

        The increase, the biggest in five months, indicates the world’s largest oil exporter is confident global – or at least Asian – energy demand is strong enough to absorb the modest increase in output from OPEC+ members next month and that markets will remain tight even with parts of Europe and the U.S. in lockdown.

        Saudi state producer Aramco raised pricing for Arab Light crude for Asia by 80 cents a barrel to 30 cents above the benchmark from a 50 cent discount the previous month.

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        The price increase comes after price cuts from the Saudis in September, October and December as virus cases surged, sending oil demand sliding and depressing Brent prices.

        Still, the hike is less than half consensus expectations: Aramco had been expected to increase pricing for the grade by 65 cents, according to a Bloomberg survey of seven traders and refiners.

        Aramco also increased pricing for light crude grades to the Mediterranean region but kept them unchanged for northwest Europe. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia lowered pricing for all grades to the U.S. to the lowest since May as Saudi exports to the U.S. have plummeted this year.

        The price increase comes as Brent rose 2.2% last week to $49.25 a barrel, its highest level since early March, although the price remains down about down about 25% this year. 

      • Study Concludes Cuban Diplomats Suffered From Effects Of 'Microwave Radiation'
        Study Concludes Cuban Diplomats Suffered From Effects Of ‘Microwave Radiation’

        Tyler Durden

        Sun, 12/06/2020 – 19:55

        Authored by Rick Moran via PJMedia.com,

        A long-awaited study by the National Academy of Sciences has concluded that the illnesses that struck American diplomats and their families in Cuba and China in 2017 were likely caused by directed microwave energy, although it’s not clear if the source was a weapon or not.

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        U.S. intelligence agencies had believed since 2018 that Russia was behind the attacks, using some kind of “sonic weapon.” The NAS study included examining 40 of the affected diplomats and came to the conclusion that nothing like this had previously been documented in the medical literature.

        NBC News:

        “The committee felt that many of the distinctive and acute signs, symptoms and observations reported by (government) employees are consistent with the effects of directed, pulsed radio frequency (RF) energy,” the report says. “Studies published in the open literature more than a half-century ago and over the subsequent decades by Western and Soviet sources provide circumstantial support for this possible mechanism.”

        While important questions remain, “the mere consideration of such a scenario raises grave concerns about a world with disinhibited malevolent actors and new tools for causing harm to others, as if the U.S. government does not have its hands full already with naturally occurring threats,” says the report, edited by Dr. David Relman, a professor in medicine, microbiolology and immunology at Stanford, and Julie Pavlin, a physician who leads the National Academies of Sciences global health division in Washington.

        It still might be the Russians. Recent reports have documented other cases of CIA agents being targeted and showing similar symptoms after an attack. Tracking devices show some Russian agents who had worked on microwave weapons were present in the vicinity.

        Saying that the microwave energy was “directed” raises the question: by whom? And if it’s not a weapon, why was it pointed at the U.S. embassy?

        As the state department and CIA are saying, there are still plenty of unanswered — and perhaps unanswerable — questions.

        The State Department, responding to the report, said that “each possible cause remains speculative” and added that the investigation, now three years old, is still “ongoing.” Although it praised the National Academies of Sciences for undertaking the effort, the State Department offered a long list of “challenges of their study” and limitations in the data the academies were given access to, suggesting that the report should not be viewed as conclusive.

        “While the above limit the scope of the report, they do not lessen its value,” the State Department said in an emailed statement. “We are pleased this report is now out and can add to the data and analyses that may help us come to an eventual conclusion as to what transpired.”

        Whoever is doing it — and most of the signs apparently point to Russia — they are very careful not to leave any footprints to follow. The weapon has been used sparingly and in several places — perhaps testing the weapon before deploying it.

        Until we figure it out, our diplomats will be in danger.

      • As Dems Push Loan Forgiveness, Data Show Blue States Have Highest Average Student Debt
        As Dems Push Loan Forgiveness, Data Show Blue States Have Highest Average Student Debt

        Tyler Durden

        Sun, 12/06/2020 – 19:30

        We know it’s hard for millennials to hear – especially considering how badly screwed so many of them are after racking up ridiculous loan balances into the 100s of thousands of dollars – but there isn’t a compelling moral argument for forgiving student loans.

        While Democratic politicians like Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders like to wax poetic about unleashing an entire generation from the shackles of debt slavery, in reality, Americans with student loans largely include middle-class people – or at least, people who were raised in the middle class.

        The argument ‘well they bailed out the banks’ isn’t really an argument: it’s just another example ‘of whataboutism’, a sin that the left is constantly accusing President Trump and his allies of committing.

        And as the world waits to see whether Joe Biden will embrace some of the progressive agenda pushed by politicians like AOC and ‘the squad’. Biden has suggested that loan forgiveness of up to 50k per borrower could be on the table as an early-stage priority. But is that just lip service? Sometimes, it’s difficult to tell.

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        A recent study from Smartest Dollar offers some more insight on the Democratic mindset when it comes to debt-forgiveness. It found that COVID-19 forbearance programs have actually improved the picture in terms of the share of student loans in forbearance. What’s more, the study gets right to the heart of the issue.

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        Why do Democrats want to forgive student loans? So they can essentially deliver a massive handout to their political base.

        The analysis found that borrowers in coastal states tend to have the most student loan debt. While borrowers in California and Oregon have average student loan debts above $35,000, those in the South and East Coast states like Maryland, New York, Georgia, and Virginia have even higher debt burdens.

        Though a handful of southern states land among the states with the highest average student debt burden, the top 20 is mostly populated by blue and purple states.

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        Anybody out there think that’s just a coincidence?

      • Second Major California Sheriff Openly Rebels Against Newsom Lockdown
        Second Major California Sheriff Openly Rebels Against Newsom Lockdown

        Tyler Durden

        Sun, 12/06/2020 – 19:05

        Just a day after Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco told California Governor Gavin Newsom that his department won’t be “blackmailed, bullied or used as muscle” against residents during the pandemic, The Epoch Times reports that Orange County Sheriff Don Barnes announced that deputies would not enforce the regional stay-at-home order that was scheduled to go into effect Dec. 6 throughout Southern California.

        “Compliance with health orders is a matter of personal responsibility and not a matter of law enforcement,” Barnes said in a Dec. 5 news release.

        “Orange County Sheriff’s deputies will not be dispatched to, or respond to, calls for service to enforce compliance with face coverings, social gatherings, or stay-at-home orders only.”

        It is not the first time the sheriff has declared deputies would not enforce a state order over coronavirus restrictions. When Gov. Gavin Newsom ordered a curfew in November for all California counties in the purple tier amid climbing coronavirus cases, Barnes said deputies would not be enforcing that order either.

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        A state-mandated, regional stay-at-home order was scheduled to go into effect at 11:59 p.m. on Dec. 6. The mandate was triggered when intensive care unit (ICU) bed availability remained below 15 percent after the Southern California region’s Dec. 5 daily COVID-19 case-rate update, according to the California Department of Public Health.

        In his statement, Barnes said deputies would continue to respond to calls for potential criminal behavior and the protection of life and property, actions he said remain “consistent with the protections of constitutional rights.”

        But he said the “ever-changing nature” of Gov. Gavin Newsom’s stay-at-home orders and the increase in COVID-19 case numbers “bring additional uncertainty and stress to California residents.”

        “To put the onus on law enforcement to enforce these orders against law-abiding citizens who are already struggling through difficult circumstances, while at the same time criticizing law enforcement and taking away tools to do our jobs, is both contradictory and disingenuous,” he said.

        He cautioned that people should remain diligent in preventing the spread of the disease, and should take the recommended public health precautions like wearing face coverings and practicing social distancing.

        “Conversely, policy makers must not penalize residents for earning a livelihood, safeguarding their mental health, or enjoying our most cherished freedoms,” Barnes stated.

        Citing rising COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths over the past month, Newsom on Dec. 3 announced plans for regional stay-at-home orders that would be triggered when ICU bed availability in select areas fell below 15 percent.

        Full Statement below:

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      • DHS Investigated For Spying On Citizens Using Cell Data From Mobile Advertising
        DHS Investigated For Spying On Citizens Using Cell Data From Mobile Advertising

        Tyler Durden

        Sun, 12/06/2020 – 18:40

        The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is launching an inspector general investigation into whether federal agencies surveilled Americans via their cell phone data without a warrant. While this sounds like nothing new, it involved federal agents buying access to a large commercial database.

        According to a letter the DHS sent to Congressional leaders last week and obtained by The Wall Street Journal:

        The department’s inspector general told five Democratic senators that his office would initiate an audit “to determine if the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and its components have developed, updated, and adhered to policies related to cell-phone surveillance devices,” according to a letter sent last week to Capitol Hill and shared with The Wall Street Journal.

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        File image via Wright Studio

        Putting aside the dubiousness of a major federal agency mounting an “objective” probe of one of its own internal departments over violations of Constitutional rights, the episode shows the US government has done little in the way of reform after the Edward Snowden NSA revelations of 2013. Of course, there were few that believed subsequent empty “promises” of politicians to curtail illegal domestic spying in the first place.

        In this newest case the investigation will focus on US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and its alleged use of of commercially-available phone tracking data to snoop on the whereabouts of individuals. Congressional inquiries started when it was first revealed the CBP payed up to $500,000 to private company for access to a commercial database which has “location data mined from applications on millions of Americans’ mobile phones.”

        The company at the center of the probe is a government contractor named Venntel which sources its data from mobile advertising to create “100 percent commercially available data”.

        Last Wednesday a group of Senators led by Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass) issued a statement which said the following: 

        If federal agencies are tracking American citizens without warrants, the public deserves answers and accountability, I won’t accept anything less than a thorough and swift inspector general investigation that sheds light on CBP’s phone location data surveillance program.

        “CBP is not above the law and it should not be able to buy its way around the Fourth Amendment,” the senators said in the letter addressed to Inspector General Joseph Cuffari.

        https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

        Simultaneous to the Congressional probe the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) last week filed a lawsuit demanding the release of “records about their purchases of cell phone location data for immigration enforcement and other purposes.” 

        One crucial detail which remains unclear at this point, however, is the degree to which CBP was obtaining the tracking data of illegal immigrants or foreigners of questionable legal status in the United States. Even if so it’s likely they were accessing tracking data of American citizens in the process.

        The CBP defense of their actions may hinge on such an argument, namely, that the methods were necessary and only applied to snooping on non-US citizens seeking to evade border and immigration authorities.

      • Morgan Stanley: "The Biggest Debate About 2021 Isn't Where The Market Is Going. It's How It Gets There"
        Morgan Stanley: “The Biggest Debate About 2021 Isn’t Where The Market Is Going. It’s How It Gets There”

        Tyler Durden

        Sun, 12/06/2020 – 18:15

        By Andrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at Morgan Stanley

        The biggest debate about 2021 probably isn’t where the market is going. It’s how it gets there.

        We, and many others, are optimistic on the next 12 months. But there’s less agreement among investors on how these gains will be achieved. With our economists still in the ‘V-shaped recovery’ camp, we think returns will be powered by strong economic growth, driving an early-cycle, post-recession pattern of returns. Buy what you’re usually supposed to buy following a recession.

        Others disagree. They think our forecasts for economic growth are too optimistic and expect COVID-19 to take longer to dissipate, with a more serious, longer-lasting impact on the global economy. They argue that the drawdown and recovery happened so fast that the economic cycle never truly reset, leaving both the corporate and sovereign sectors overleveraged. For these investors, liquidity and low rates will be the principal drivers of market gains. Secular stagnation lives.

        In investing, as in life, more than one thing can be true at the same time. Morgan Stanley’s economists forecast both above-consensus global growth and US$3.4 trillion of G4 balance sheet expansion in 2021. We’re positive on the year ahead in part because we think that growth and monetary policy will be rowing in the same direction.

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        Our argument is simply that weak-but-improving growth and supportive liquidity are a normal post-recession backdrop. Meanwhile, market pricing often remains sceptical that economic ‘normalcy’ will return any time soon. Better growth, supportive liquidity and attractive valuations are all reasons to adopt a ‘pro-cyclical’ stance across key cross-asset pairs: Long US small-caps over large-caps, long AUD/NZD/SEK/NOK versus USD and long high yield over investment grade. We think that US 10-year rates will hit 1.45% by end-2021, and are underweight government bonds.

        But what about that missing reset? The economic collapse and recovery were unusually fast, bypassing the large defaults of 2008-10. There hasn’t been a single significant bank failure in the wake of the world’s largest economic drawdown on record and, more strikingly, there hasn’t been a single significant capital raising. The US trailing 12-month speculative-grade default rate sits at 8.0%. In 2009, a milder recession, it peaked at 14.2%.

        This failure to reset is often cited as a key reason why this can’t be the start of a new economic cycle: Recessions, while painful, help to clear out weaker, less-productive and undercapitalised businesses, making room for stronger, more dynamic ones to prosper in their place. The historic levels of policy intervention in 2020 prevented this ‘creative destruction’. Without that clearing out, a dynamic recovery is unlikely. With it, a wider run of corporate defaults is inevitable.

        Since we do think this is the start of a new economic cycle, do believe it will be ‘dynamic’ (we’re above consensus on growth) and don’t expect a surprisingly high wave of defaults, this would be a good time to explain why we don’t subscribe to the counter-argument.

        • First, recessions are about more than just high default rates. They also often mean high unemployment, low inventory levels, high savings rates and low consumer confidence (among other things). Early-cycle environments gain momentum from all these negatives becoming ‘less bad’. In our forecasts, over the next 12 months, all of them do.
        • Second, about those default rates. Pruning unproductive businesses from the market is a painful but necessary process. But this argument assumes that the businesses in question are fundamentally broken, not ‘fine were it not for a once-in-a-century global pandemic’. We don’t see how letting scores of otherwise solvent firms default would result in a better long-run result for the economy or investors, especially as these firms would have been forced to reorganise, or liquidate, near the nadir of economic activity.

        Indeed, one of the great ironies of 2020 is that for all the hand-wringing around ‘covenant-lite’ lending, it was probably a blessing. ‘Weak’ terms on lending gave borrowers a helpful level of flexibility during the 1H downturn, where strict provisions would have forced more defaults. Neither owner, employee nor lender would have benefited from debt suddenly coming due in the depths of a recession; if you don’t believe me, search ‘recovery rates March 2009’.

        Finally, it’s also unfair to say that policy prevented any pain from being endured. If we combine the trailing 12-month default rate (8.0%) with our credit strategists’ forecast for the next 12 months (6.0%), we get a 24-month default rate of ~14.0%. We can compare that two-year default rate to two-year changes in economic activity (i.e., taking a somewhat broader view of this unusual year). Viewed this way, things look more normal.

        If you’re constructive on the year ahead, the question of ‘how you get there’ still matters. We remain in the pro-cyclical, early-cycle camp, and don’t believe that the ‘absence’ of a larger corporate default wave nullifies this story. Our corporate and securitized credit strategists are constructive with an early-cycle bias: positive on junior exposure in CLOs and CMBS, and on high yield over investment grade.

      • Foot Traffic Still Stumbling In New York's Top Business Districts
        Foot Traffic Still Stumbling In New York’s Top Business Districts

        Tyler Durden

        Sun, 12/06/2020 – 17:50

        In what should come as a surprise to no one, foot traffic in New York’s hottest business districts continues to suffer, though things have improved since the summer according to the Wall Street Journal.

        Neighborhoods which were booming before the pandemic, such as Flatiron and Union Square, were crippled by lockdown restrictions, leading to a sharp dropoff in foot traffic.

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        Prior to the pandemic, approximately 9% of the district’s retail corridor was vacant in 2018.

        A follow-up survey conducted by the NYC Department of City Planning in July revealed that the number of inactive storefronts in the district – both closed and vacant – jumped had jumped 36%, which the planning department attributed in part to a lack of both commuters and tourists.

        Still, things have improved somewhat since the summer.

        “It is moving in the right direction, it’s just been gradual,” said James Mettham, executive director of the Flatiron 23rd Street Partnership, who added that more businesses have reopened since the summer amid improving foot traffic.

        Still, the Wall Street Journal conducted an analysis of Foursquare foot-traffic data, and found that pedestrian activity was still down across the Flatiron, Union Square and Chelsea neighborhoods vs. February before the pandemic restrictions went into effect.

        While this is an improvement from a 75% drop in foot traffic in the spring, it’s still slower than several outlying areas such as Morris Park in the Bronx and New Drop on Staten Island – which saw pedestrian activity return to pre-pandemic levels by September.

        Some local shops are facing less dire, yet still precarious financial situations.

        “We’re still bleeding money,” said Chris Calkins, CEO of Gotham Coffee Roasters on West 19th Street. “but unless things get worse, we’re good until June.” Gotham’s sales have improved somewhat since the spring – down 60% vs. 85% earlier in the year. Calkins says he’s remained afloat through his mail-order business, federal grants and loans, and a rent reduction from his landlord of 30%.

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        That said, with New York governor Andrew Cuomo warning on Modnay of more potential lockdowns, we have to wonder if the slight gains made throughout NYC’s business districts will be wiped out amid what Joe Biden lovingly referred to as an impending “dark winter.”

        “The holiday season is going to have a profound effect. It already has,” Cuomo said on Monday. “The holiday season is going to have a profound effect. It already has.“

      • Open Letter To Governor Brown: The Data Confirms "It's Time To Re-Open Oregon's Businesses"
        Open Letter To Governor Brown: The Data Confirms “It’s Time To Re-Open Oregon’s Businesses”

        Tyler Durden

        Sun, 12/06/2020 – 17:25

        Authored by Chris Hamilton via Econimica blog,

        I’m a proud native Oregonian.  I’ve lived in Asia, Europe, and traveled most of the world, but I choose to live in Oregon. It’s that good.  Oregon is also great because it is a political and social dichotomy.  Ultra liberal Portland, Eugene, Bend vs ultra conservative rural Oregon. There is a little something for everybody…and I love every bit of it.

        So, as I’m watching the states recent implosion…I’m heartsick. Like everywhere else, Coronavirus has found it’s way into Oregon. In March, the state chose to shut down and enter into a prolonged lockdown. I disagreed but couldn’t do so with great conviction, because the reliable data to prove the shutdown wasn’t warranted just didn’t exist.

        However, as reliable data has been growing…the state has chosen to keep schools closed, cancelling athletic and social clubs, alongside in person learning.  And now the state has entered a second partial lockdown; shutting down restaurants, gyms, bars, and other select business’. 

        At the most critical business time of the year, the state has taken business owners/employees ability to earn a living with no compensation offered. This has been done to slow the spread of Coronavirus and avoid an overwhelming crush of patients in the states hospitals.

        Like the Governor, I too want to keep Oregonians from needlessly dying. But I’m also cognizant that the state government is there to serve the people, not dictate to them. The state is there to educate to the risk factors and respect it’s citizens well informed decisions. Unilaterally taking away many Oregonians right to run small and large business’, send their children to school, etc. would have to be done based on some very hard and lethal evidence. It is this evidence I want to review.

        First, consider the total number of Coronavirus cases, per age group, and the associated deaths (chart below). It should be obvious that the under 50 year old population makes up the vast majority of positive cases (and actual cases are likely 5x to 10x higher due to asymptomatic &/or mild undiagnosed cases) but under 50 year olds make up so few of the Coronavirus deaths.

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        Looking at cases and deaths, by age group (chart below), consider…

        • Under 30yr/olds = 37% of cases, 9% of hospitalizations, & 0.2% of deaths.

        • 30 to 60yr/olds = 46% of cases, 34% of hospitalizations, & 9.1% of deaths.

        • 60+yr/olds = 17% of cases, 57% of hospitalizations, & 91.7% of deaths.

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        From the above chart, it should be abundantly clear who the “at-risk” population is and where the focus of attention and support should be directed.  Not school closures or business closures…but helping the primarily elderly population with at-risk maladies avoid the general public…not have the generally well public avoid contact with the generally well public! These interactions and potential infections lead to few hospitalizations and a statistically minute number of deaths.

        To emphasize the point of who is filling Oregon’s hospitals, and who needs greater support and care in avoiding the general public…again, it is the elderly population that is utilizing the hospitals (chart below)…not the young. As for the young and concern of long term impacts from fighting Coronavirus, the numbers of severe cases requiring hospitalization as so rare that the percentage of those with long term issues will be statistically incredibly low.

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        Further, the CDC has made it plain that Coronavirus alone is very rarely the cause of death. 

        As per the CDC, “For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death.”

        Coronavirus, on it’s own, is statistically so unlikely to cause death among the general public that they can go on with their lives w/out undue fear…and the focus should be safeguarding the at-risk.

        The point of this article is not to create greater division or offer more finger pointing…it is to offer clear data that Oregonians who are healthy are at no great risk from Coronavirus. The economy should remain open while those in poor health (they generally know who they are; elderly, fighting cancer, obesity, type 2 diabetes, immunocompromised, COPD, etc.) should be offered support to help them to avoid contact with the general public. Households with at-risk persons should consider avoiding sending their children to school but be offered online schooling options.  And it is a shame that solutions to avoid the ongoing high mortality within nursing homes isn’t getting more attention (encompassing nearly 40% of all Coronavirus deaths).

        Simply, the tax base should be used (rather than abused) supporting those at risk should to avoid general interaction until a vaccine is ready (why the generally healthy public would take a vaccine for a virus that poses little to no threat is a question for another day). Things like subsidizing Instacart online shopping rather than in person shopping, etc. etc. Let’s get creative, as lives are on the line.  This is just common sense that the state would focus the quarantine on the small population of at-risk persons, and offer/focus their support/resources there rather than harm the large, well, not at-risk population. Lastly, small business owners running restaurants, bars, gyms, etc. providing jobs and tax revenue should be hailed rather than bankrupted.

        Oregon has long been an innovator and leader, and now it is time for Oregon to learn and lead again. It is time to re-open Oregon’s business’ and focus the state’s resources on protecting the at-risk population rather than harming the large at very low risk population.

        The data for this article is taken from the Oregon Health Authority

        I also offer the below national data from the CDC, generally mirroring that of Oregon, FYR.

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      • Russia Unveils New Drone Killing Tank 
        Russia Unveils New Drone Killing Tank 

        Tyler Durden

        Sun, 12/06/2020 – 17:00

        The problem with many of the world’s top militaries is that short-range defenses against small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) are lacking, well, at least a cost-effective weapon that doesn’t cost thousands, if not hundreds of thousands or in some cases millions of dollars to shoot down a cheap enemy drone.

        Russia learned this back in 2018 after its security forces of the Khmeimim airbase and Russian Naval CSS point in Tartus, Syria, combated a series of UAV attacks. 

        Two years later, Russia has revealed the Derivatsiya-PVO self-propelled anti-aircraft gun that will “create a shield from a hail of projectiles that burst with shrapnel in the air, forming an impenetrable barrier against enemy drones,” according to Russia Beyond. 

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        Russia Beyond said the Derivatsiya is based on the BPM-3 infantry fighting vehicle. It has an AU-220M automatic weapon station that fires up to 120 artillery shells per minute. 

        “Its ammunition kit includes remotely detonated and guided projectiles, which means that anti-aircraft gunners can fire a shell and detonate it with a single keystroke during the flight, or adjust its path to track the enemy’s movements,” a Russian military-industrial complex source told Russia Beyond. 

        Derivatsiya was designed to knock out small UAVs that fly several hundred meters above the ground. 

        “Drones have become the scourge of our army in the Middle East, and not only ours. Militants make remote-controlled ‘helicopters’ from improvised means, attach bombs to them, then dispatch a whole flock of ‘suicide bombers’ to blow up expensive air-defense systems or tanks and helicopters. Basically, any equipment that costs millions of dollars,” said the expert.

        He added that Derivatsiya was developed to lower the cost per round in combating these new threats on the modern battlefield. 

        “It is to save money and equipment on destroying these buzzing bomb-laden irritants that Derivatsiya is being developed,” he said.

        The proliferation of small drones on the modern battlefield also led the US Navy to recently “revive” anti-aircraft flak rounds used in World War II for its current warships to combat small drone threats. 

      • Opposition Builds To Great Reset In Argentina, Who's Next?
        Opposition Builds To Great Reset In Argentina, Who’s Next?

        Tyler Durden

        Sun, 12/06/2020 – 16:35

        Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

        This is not news. But an historical reminder of what happens when the people get fed up with a corrupt government incapable of serving their interests.

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        Remember this?

        The president of Argentina has left the building. According to the Daily Mail 20 years ago:

        President Fernando De la Rua resigned and fled the government palace in a helicopter, driven from office by a devastating economic crisis and days of rioting that left 22 people dead and homes and supermarkets across Argentina ransacked.

        Fast forward to today:

        This is the news: Police faced rioters with stones this week.

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        This is what the face of real anger and desperation in the face of a government that is equal parts corrupt and inept looks like.

        No one wants to see this kind of abuse of any other human being. It’s anathema to life itself. But everyone makes a choice. The police choose to put on their uniforms and riot shields to enforce immoral orders while the people make the choice to stand up to it.

        It is the fundamental problem of rule through force that eventually leads to these regrettable outcomes. No one wants to see policemen, presumably decent men with the right motivations to maintain societal order, stoned in public.

        But when people have had their ability to make their grievances heard peacefully taken away from them they will, eventually, make their grievances heard violently.

        It’s who we are. It’s human nature.

        And the lesson here is for all of these would-be tyrants currently laughing about winning a fraudulent election in the U.S. through changing the rules is that they will face this same moment as these cops did very soon.

        Because elections are the opportunity for us to air our grievances with our government peacefully. And what so many in politics fail to understand, but what the people who voted for Donald Trump do, is that these past two elections haven’t been referenda on Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

        They have been referenda on the whole political class and culture which has driven people to the edge of insanity, bankruptcy and despair.

        So, laugh it up Stacey Abrams, Rahm Emmanuel, Barack Obama, Dan Crenshaw and Mitt Romney. Watch this video carefully. This is your future.

        The same goes for Tony Blair, Emmanuel Macron, Bill Gates, Angela Merkel, George Soros and Benjamin Netanyahu.

        You may scare people into taking your vaccine and issuing your medical passports but what happens on the day when the cops fail to show up to control the crowd for fear of being stoned?

        The same people today screaming “my body, my choice” will line up for their COVID-19 vaccine if it means they can’t continue infecting the minds of students with Critical Race Theory.

        Congratulations on turning everyone into a desperate, cognitivally-dissonant response monkey.

        That stuff cuts both ways folks.

        Obedience is not acquiescence. No one really loves Big Brother no matter how much you torture them. The longer you suppress the anger the worse it gets.

        Until it explodes.

        And people won’t be turning that anger on the idiots on the streets in Portland.

        We’ve seen what it looks like when the would-be tyrants riot — the ideologically possessed race hustlers and commies in Antifa and BLM. We haven’t seen what it looks like when the conscientious ‘right’ who just want to live without abuse looks like.

        Well, in fact we do. They vote twice, overwhelmingly for Donald Trump and throw British tea into Boston Harbor. They veto legislation designed to sell their people out to the Politburo in Brussels.

        Italians will soon have to make their choice.

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        This isn’t a breakdown of the civil order, this is the beginning of a restoration of civil order that is already gone. The idea that we the people control our elected officials governing us is rapidly being revealed as a lie.

        And it leaves people with no other option than violence.

        This is why, in my mind, the election fraud is the single issue that we have to come together on, Democrat, Republican and, yes, you too feckless and cowardly libertarians.

        Because it’s not about the mechanics of voting. It’s not about its inherent immorality. At certain moments in time the value of your vote and what it represents rises above all of that.

        It is still the least violent act one can take in conjunction with others to say, “No more. That’s enough.”

        I didn’t vote for Trump because I thought he did a good job while in office. I voted for Trump twice because I wanted to stick my finger in the eye of the people who have materially made my life and the lives of millions of people around the world worse.

        I voted for Trump to bitch slap Nancy Pelosi, laugh at Chuck Schumer and put James Comey in jail.

        I voted for Trump to blow up the false dyad of Republican v. Democrat, out Lindsey Graham and rein in the military-surveillance state.

        I didn’t vote for Trump for a tax cut, though it was a nice bonus. My price is a metric shit-ton higher than that you wretched trolls.

        Trump stood up to them for four years and by doing so exposed them to such an extent I never thought possible. And now, he and all the people who voted for him are being laughed at by corrupt state legislators, judges, election officials and party hacks.

        The normie Republicans think the Georgia run-off elections matter. Without an overhaul of the voting systems themselves what does it matter if two Democrats win or two RINOs do?

        And do you really think the outcome of that run-off hasn’t already been determined?

        It’s all a rigged game. And now that that has been fully exposed what comes next?

        Because how many people in the U.S. are coming to the same conclusions as those people throwing rocks at cops in Argentina, that their government is terminal, its authority illegitimate and its edicts unworthy?

        I’ve been long guillotines and rope-makers for the past eighteen months, I may have to double my position.

        *  *  *

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      Dec 06

      Today’s News 6th December 2020

      • US Election "Success"… And Hey Presto "Russian Interference" Disappears
        US Election “Success”… And Hey Presto “Russian Interference” Disappears

        Tyler Durden

        Sun, 12/06/2020 – 00:00

        Via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

        The United States’ election victory of Democrat presidential candidate Joe Biden has yet to be officially confirmed. That requires the 500-plus Electoral College comprising the 50 federal states to cast the final vote when the constitutional body meets on December 14. Biden holds a commanding lead of over 300 delegates in the Electoral College, more than 70 above Donald Trump’s quota and decisively more than the 270 threshold required for election to the White House.

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        Nonetheless, already one thing is indisputably clear. Biden’s nominal victory from the popular vote tallies is glaring proof that Russia did not interfere in the American presidential ballot. Not in 2020. And not, we may discern, in 2016, nor in any other election. Yet the silence in US media over this obvious conclusion is deafening.

        Four years of frenetic and unsubstantiated allegations of “Russian interference” have disappeared overnight, it seems. Poof! Gone! As if by a magic conjuring trick. Now you see it, now you don’t, so to speak.

        The New York Times has declared the recent presidential contest a “great election.. a resounding success free of fraud”. The Department of Homeland Security pronounced the election to be the “most secure in American history.” Other US media outlets have jettisoned supposed political neutrality and can barely contain their elation at Biden’s electoral victory.

        But hold on a moment.

        In the months and weeks leading up to the November election, there was a fever pitch in US media among politicians, national security chiefs, pundits and anonymous intelligence sources that Russia was allegedly stepping up “interference efforts” to get Trump re-elected.

        Those evidence-free claims were predicated on the equally absurd assertion that Trump was a Manchurian candidate for the Kremlin. That “Russiagate” fable was first spun in 2016 and for the past four years elaborated into a tangled web to “explain” how a maverick former reality TV star had been elected to the White House.

        Suddenly, however, the Democrats and supportive US media are now asserting that the voting process was impeccable and unblemished by any malfeasance. Of course they would say that in order to bolster legitimacy of Biden’s win against the Republican White House incumbent Donald Trump. But the thundering takeaway which the US political class and media are bizarrely ignoring is that Russia did not interfere not in the 2020 race nor in any other election. Russia has always categorically said it is not meddling in US politics and its electoral process. Turns out that Russia is de facto vindicated in its protestations against American slander.

        The “Russiagate” nonsense was hatched by Democrats, their supportive media and intelligence agencies because they could not come to terms with the reality of why Trump beat the then establishment-ordained candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. Could it have been because Clinton and the Democrat party was repudiated by popular sentiment due to perceived corruption and overseas wars? No, another “explanation” had to be found. And the US political establishment came up with the “Russian interference” narrative.

        No matter that the Mueller investigation found after 22 months of probing and hundreds of millions of taxpayer-dollars spent that there was no evidence of “Russia collusion” with the Trump campaign. Nevertheless, Mueller and the Democrats, their media and intelligence backers, persisted in the spurious notion that Russia meddled in the 2016 election and, allegedly, was continuing to meddle, purportedly with even more sophisticated, nefarious techniques.

        How can US politicians, intelligence officials and media credibly claim that Russia interfered in 2016 and in mid-term congressional elections in 2018, but now in 2020 it evidently did not? The most logical explanation is simply that Russia never did.

        Four years of hysterical American accusations against Russia have transpired to just that: bogus hysteria. US politicians, media and so-called intelligence gurus should be held to account for fabricating what is perhaps the biggest hoax ever played on the American public.

        Though, one can be sure that they won’t be held accountable in a formal way. Venal power doesn’t work like that. And the US political system has built-in layers of self-protection for the political class never to be prosecuted. But in an informal no less real way, the system is being held to account by the wider public who are increasingly holding it in contempt and distrust. The political class and their plaything media are losing the moral authority to govern. This goes beyond mere Trump Derangement Syndrome. The systematic lying and deception over alleged Russian interference perpetrated on such a grand scale has fatally damaged the credibility of American institutions. Not just in the US, but around the world too.

        Equally lamentable is the corrosive, damaging effect that the bogus hysteria has had on bilateral US-Russia relations and international tensions. Relations are at a dangerous all time low comparable to the depth of the Cold War. This has in turn sabotaged diplomatic efforts to strengthen arms controls and global security. The anti-Russia hysteria has led to the US abandonment of key nuclear weapons treaties, the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty and soon the New START.

        The Russophobia that has been whipped up as a political weapon against Trump over the past four years is not something that can be easily put aside. It has engendered deep-seated hostility against Russia. During the presidential debates, Joe Biden vowed that the would take a tough stand against Russia for “interfering” in US politics. The incoming administration is being mentally held hostage by its own Russophobia which was cultivated on entirely false grounds.

        It is disturbing how the US nation has been dragged into an obsession about alleged Russian malign activities, an obsession which turns out to be a mirage. Not for the first time either. Recall the Cold War Red Scares and McCarthyite witch-hunts which poisoned American society.

        The implications are daunting. How can bilateral relations with Russia be restored? How can an intelligent dialogue be conducted with a nation whose leaders are so self-deluded and irrational?

        Moreover, this is a nation whose leaders presume to have the prerogative to use overwhelming military force whenever they deem so. It is not unlike the driver of a juggernaut vehicle on a precipice who is hurtling along while out of his brain on misconceptions.

      • Japan Set To Abolish Gas Powered Cars By Mid 2030s
        Japan Set To Abolish Gas Powered Cars By Mid 2030s

        Tyler Durden

        Sat, 12/05/2020 – 23:30

        As if the speculative EV mania needed any more fuel thrown on its fire, Japan is joining numerous other countries – and California – in setting a date to make all new cars electric and “eco friendly” by the mid 2030’s.

        The country’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry has said they are considering abolishing conventional cars and shifting purely to hybrids and electrics within the next 10 to 20 years, according to Nikkei. 

        The move is part of a broader plan for the entire country to go “zero emissions” by 2050. Vehicles made up 16% of the country’s total emissions in 2018, according to the report. An official announcement is expected later this month at a conference attended by experts and car industry executives. This will be followed by more concrete plans and timelines. 

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        “Many territories” have already said they are going to ban the sale of new ICE vehicles by 2030, the report says.

        Currently, the country is focused on making car makers improve efficiency by 30% by the end of 2030. The country does not plan on banning hybrids. Key auto makers in Japan have already offered their support: Toyota has stated they will offer an electric option for all models by 2025 and Nissan aims to raise its ratio of hybrid to electric cars from 30% to 60% by as early as 2023. 

        The U.K. already has similar legislation planned, banning ICE cars by 2030 and hybrids by 2035. California will also ban sales of new ICE cars by 2035. France has said they will do the same by 2040.

        China is considering implementing similar rules by 2035, allowing a mix of EVs and hybrids. 

      • This New Technology Will Dangerously Expand Government Spying On Citizens
        This New Technology Will Dangerously Expand Government Spying On Citizens

        Tyler Durden

        Sat, 12/05/2020 – 23:00

        Authored by Jack Rasmus via Counterpunch.org,

        If you’re worried about the capability of government to conduct surveillance of citizens engaged in political assembly and protest, or even just personal activity, then you should be aware the technological capability of government surveillance is about to expand exponentially.

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        The US Air Force’s Research Lab (yes, it has its own lab) has recently signed a contract to test new software of a company called SignalFrame, a Washington DC wireless tech company. The company’s new software is able to access smartphones, and from your phone jump off to access any other wireless or bluetooth device in the near vicinity. To quote from the article today in the Wall St. Journal, the smartphone is used “as a window onto usage of hundreds of millions of computers,s routers, fitness trackers, modern automobiles and other networked devices, known collectively as the ‘Internet of Things’.”

        Your smartphone in effect becomes a government listening device that detects and accesses all nearby wireless or bluetooth devices, or anything that has a MAC address for that matter. How ‘near’ is nearby is not revealed by the company, or the Air Force, both of which refused to comment on the Wall St. Journal story. But with the expansion of 5G wireless, it should be assumed it’s more than just a couple steps from your smartphone.

        One can imagine some scary scenarios with this capability in the hands of government snoops:

        • Not only would the government know your geographical location via the GPS signal to your cellphone. They’d know what you are doing. And with whom.

        • A political gathering would allow them to see all the owners of other cellphones in the vicinity of a protest or demonstration. How many are gathering at a particular street or location. The direction they might be heading. Or whether there’s an organization meeting in a hall or room and who (with a cellphone as well) might be attending.

        • If you’re driving on a winding coastal or mountain road, it would know, and could possibly access, your car’s various electronic systems to turn them off. It might access your car’s circuit board that governs your power steering when you’re driving in an area of winding roads. Or it might be able to just shut down your car’s electrical system and remotely lock all your doors. The police no longer have to engage in highway chases until capture.

        • The new tech would allow the government to access the data on your fitbit device while you’re jogging. Or worse, maybe even interfere with the signal on your heart pacemaker device.

        • The technology might be used to access your smartphone, and from there to turn on your home Alexa device to listen in and record conversations without you ever knowing. Or to listen in on your zoom conferencing on your laptop. Or maybe even worse, to shut down or bypass the safety features on your home furnace equipment. Or turn off your home security system.

        • And with 5G wireless broadband, the tracking might be extended well beyond the range of a bluetooth device. Add 5G broadband wireless to SignalFrame’s technology, and then wed that to the capability of machine learning and artificial intelligence, and you get instant processing of a massive amount of data on any targeted person or gathering!

        This problem of government surveillance on free citizen activity is not new. It took a giant leap after 9-11 with the Patriot Act and acquisition of phone data by Homeland Security and other government agencies. It was supposed to have stopped. But it hasn’t. The snoops have continued to ignore Congressional resolutions and court decisions on privacy invasion of citizens. The latest Air Force lab testing is likely just a recent ‘tip of the iceberg’ revelation. And if the Air Force is doing it, be assured so are the Army, Navy, the NSA, CIA, FBI and all the other government snoops.

        Certainly this kind of technology would be used not only by the US government. If the USA has it, you can bet other governments do too–especially China, Russia, Israel, and probably some of the Europeans as well.

        Unlike in 2001, in 2020 SignalFrame’s technology takes government surveillance to a new level–given the ubiquity of smartphones, Internet of Things (IOT) devices, digital circuit board dependent autos, and all the many household devices now with MAC wireless access addresses. And now, unlike circa 2001 and the passage of the Patriot Act (and its continuation in annual NDAA legislation), we have AI, machine learning, neural nets everywhere, and massive government data processing power.

        In short, Technology is becoming a growing tool and power in the hands of governments, to use to thwart democratic and constitutional rights–as well as to detect, apprehend, and ‘deal with’ those who protest and oppose those governments.

        The coming decade in the USA will be not only increasingly difficult economically, increasingly unstable politically, but will prove to be a period in which technology is increasingly threatening basic civil rights as well as the very foundations of Democracy itself.

      • Saudis Demand To Be Consulted Before Biden Reenters Iran Nucleal Deal
        Saudis Demand To Be Consulted Before Biden Reenters Iran Nucleal Deal

        Tyler Durden

        Sat, 12/05/2020 – 22:30

        After President-Elect Joe Biden told The New York Times this past week that should Iran return to compliance to the 2015 nuclear deal (particularly caps placed on enrichment) he’ll return the US to participation in the Obama-era agreement, the Saudis have registered their alarm.

        Saudi Arabia’s top diplomat said Saturday that Washington must consult the kingdom and Gulf state allies before moving forward with reentry to the JCPOA. The Sunni kingdom sees Shia Iran as its number one threat and enemy in the region. 

        Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan told AFP, “Primarily what we expect is that we are fully consulted, that we and our other regional friends are fully consulted in what goes on vis a vis the negotiations with Iran.”

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        Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal with then US Vice President Joe Biden in 2011. Image: AFP via Getty

        “The only way towards reaching an agreement that is sustainable is through such consultation,” he emphasized while speaking to reporters at a security conference in Bahrain.

        “I think we’ve seen as a result of the after-effects of the JCPOA that not involving the regional countries results in a build up of mistrust and neglect of the issues of real concern and of real effect on regional security.”

        While Riyadh said it is “ready” and waiting to engage the incoming Biden administration on the issue, there’s not yet been any contacts regarding the nuclear deal.

        “We are confident that both an incoming Biden administration, but also our other partners, including the Europeans, have fully signed on to the need to have all the regional parties involved in a resolution,” the Saudi FM added.

        The most significant and direct military action of late involving the Iranians and Saudi remains the September 14, 2019 attack on the Aramco Abqaiq and Khurais oil processing facilities, which the US and Saudis blamed on Tehran ultimately ordering. However, who precisely was behind it remains somewhat shrouded in mystery.

        The major attack involved drones and missiles, based on weapons fragments produced by the Saudis, and likely came from Yemen, possibly via Iranian proxy fighters, the Houthis.

      • Minority Students Crushed By Lockdowns; 600% Increase In Math Failures, 500% English
        Minority Students Crushed By Lockdowns; 600% Increase In Math Failures, 500% English

        Tyler Durden

        Sat, 12/05/2020 – 22:05

        Authored by James Bovard via the American Institute for Economic Research (emphasis ours)

        In August, I reported here on how Montgomery County, Maryland, was seeking to shut down private schools as part of their Covid-19 strategy of abolishing all risk by abolishing all freedom. As more individuals have recently tested positive for Covid, the county government is responding with a new array of iron-fisted decrees. Some of the latest edicts make little or no sense, confirming the county’s nickname of LoCo Moco. 

        Gov. Larry Hogan blocked the county government’s effort to criminalize private teaching; Catholic, Jewish, and other schools have operated safely with no significant Covid outbreaks. But county schools remain shut down in large part due to the clout of the teachers union, a bulwark of political support for County Executive Marc Elrich. 

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        For at least 40 years, MoCo politicians and school officials have invoked “closing the achievement gap” as a sacred goal which justifies the sacrifice of as many taxpayers as necessary. But that goal is not as sacrosanct as assuring that teachers continue to collect full pay while taking zero risks and leaving the most vulnerable students far behind. 

        Since the county padlocked public schools earlier this year and shifted to unreliable “distance learning,” there has been a 500%+ increase in the number of black junior high students failing mathematics and a 600%+ increase in Hispanic students failing. The percentage of black elementary school students failing English increased more than 350% and the percentage of Hispanic students failing increased more than 500%. These numbers were revealed during a County Board of Education meeting on December 3; a local activist captured screenshots of the disastrous test results. Some of the data was also reported in yesterday’s Washington Post. Shutting down public schools has done more harm to black students than anything since the end of local school segregation in 1961.

        Montgomery’s results are in line with reports elsewhere that show that minority students have suffered far more harm from shutdowns justified to curtail the spread of Covid. This carnage was foreseeable. An analysis by McKinsey & Company consultants last spring estimated that if schools were entirely online until January, on average “white students would lose 6 months of learning, Hispanic students 9 months, black students 10 months and low-income students more than a year during the time school buildings have closed for the pandemic.” 

        MoCo leaders recite their devotion to “science and data” except when the data might curb their arbitrary power. C.D.C. chief Robert Redfield testified this week, “The data clearly shows us that you can operate these schools in face-to-face learning in a safe and responsible way.” Maryland State Schools Superintendent Karen Salmon urged local schools to bring back students five weeks ago but Salmon can deliver neither vanloads of votes nor armloads of cash to County Council members. The Washington Post, in an article on the success and safety of European school reopenings, noted, “Teachers unions, which have emerged as a powerful force of opposition to school reopenings in the United States, have generally been more acquiescent in Europe, pushing for safety measures rather than closures.”

        Many kids may have unnecessarily lost practically a year of their learning lives but MoCo has compensated with a maniacal devotion to mandating masks. On April 9, Montgomery County’s chief health officer Travis Gayles decreed that any store customer who failed to wear a mask would be fined $500. Gayles discouraged local residents from acquiring and wearing the most reliable protection, such as surgical masks or N95 masks, which the county said “should be reserved for health care workers.” Mandating the wearing of unreliable masks makes about as much sense as requiring everyone to wear a dunce cap with the inscription, “Save me, Big Brother!”

        On August 24, the County Council “expanded” the face mask mandate to compel everyone to cover their chins as well as their mouth or nose. (N95 masks were exempt but commoners were not supposed to be using those anyway.) Neither the Council members nor health czar Gayles revealed the secret medical data on how chins could transmit Covid. The edict was poorly publicized and mostly ignored by local residents. 

        On November 24, Gayles issued a new mask dictate: “Coverings must be worn outdoors and whenever coming into contact with individuals who are not members of their household, such as being within six feet.” Ordering people to wear masks when they walked alone outside, walked their dog, or went to the mailbox spurred ridicule on local forums. One cynic groused: “Gayles says he follows the science. The science he follows may be from a mad scientist but it’s science.” The following day, the county issued a “clarification” specifying that masks are not required if you are “Alone in your office or vehicle.” Also exempted were kids “Under the age of 18 and are engaged in vigorous sports – as recommended by the American Academy of Pediatrics.” But the pro-exercise health guidance apparently becomes null and void on the 18th birthday. 

        Maryland has a hotline number to report any violators of statewide mask mandates, and MoCo is a rich soil for raising informants. Politicians and bureaucrats have fanned mass fears which have ripened into hatred of anyone who does not comply with the latest edict. I was recently walking along the C & O Canal Towpath, talking to two friends. None of us were masked. 

        Coming in the opposite direction was a geezer, walking slumped forward with a long white shirt, big floppy hat, and a six-foot walking stick.  He suddenly stops and points his stick at me and shouts:

        “DISTANCING!”
        “What?” I replied
        “YOU’RE NOT DISTANCING!”

        “So what are you supposed to be, an Old Testament prophet?” I said. “Great – so now we got the Prophet Isaiah casting damnation on all Towpath violators.” I should have counted my blessings that he wasn’t like Coleridge’s Ancient Mariner, buttonholing people and forcing them to listen to a 45-minute poem.

        Maybe I should have also felt lucky that Prophet Dude could not summon a police SWAT helicopter. Maryland has vigorously encouraged people to rat out violators and the state has no shortage of self-appointed Junior Stasi members. 

        County agents conducted 90 inspections of businesses on the night before Thanksgiving. 

        Earl Stoddard, Montgomery County’s head of emergency management, lamented to the Washington Post: “We can’t be everywhere in every store all at once.” Stoddard encouraged residents to file accusations against any business with which they had “concerns.” 

        Last week’s Black Friday sales were treated by government officials like a crime scene in progress. A long line of customers waited outside of a humongous Best Buy store – along with police cars from both the county and Rockville. Perhaps the police were equipped with long-distance Tasers to zap anyone not wearing a proper mask? 

        Businesses have no safe haven regardless of how much they have spent to protect customers and placate bureaucrats. A Harris Teeter grocery store made extensive changes after the start of the pandemic, including placing large plexiglass screens between every one of its nine self-service checkout stations. A single customer, who perhaps failed to take his Xanax that morning, complained to the Montgomery County government that he felt unsafe when he visited the store. A county inspector swooped in and threatened to shut down the grocery store unless they blocked access to half of their self-service stations. As a result, the store now sometimes has long lines of people waiting to check out – and presumably increasing their exposure to Covid while waiting. The inspector also forced the store to designate one of its two entrances as an “exit only.” One store employee feared that county inspectors could return and compel the store to dictate which direction people walk down each grocery aisle. 

        Trader Joe’s in Rockville, perhaps seeking favor with zealous inspectors, has imposed some of the tightest restrictions on shoppers since the pandemic began. There is usually a long line out front; shoppers are also required to form a single long line before checking out. Recently, a Hispanic lady pushed her grocery cart to bluntly cut the line. A number of black customers with their grocery carts were in line behind her, and a shouting match ensued with ethnic taunts flying thick and fast. The store manager raced to the scene to squelch the uproar. But this type of fracas never happened in that store prior to its “pandemic fixes.” This is another example of how unjustified government prohibitions are spurring pointless social conflicts.

        Perhaps local residents should be grateful that Gayles or County Executive Elrich have not gone as far as the California mayor who swore that anyone not wearing a mask in public was guilty of “an act of domestic terrorism.” 

        Unfortunately, all the bankrupted local businesses, all the shafted young children, and the surge in cases of attempted suicide  and mental illness are irrelevant to how MoCo scores its good deeds. As long as county officials can claim that things would have been worse without its destructive edicts, they can continue pretending to have saved humanity. Perhaps Elrich and Gayles are hoping that if they inflict enough misery on MoCo, the Biden administration will appoint them to prestigious positions to help impose a national Covid lockdown.

      • Oliver Stone: Here's Why Trump Should Pardon Snowden, Assange
        Oliver Stone: Here’s Why Trump Should Pardon Snowden, Assange

        Tyler Durden

        Sat, 12/05/2020 – 21:40

        Filmmaker Oliver Stone has joined the growing chorus of activists calling for President Trump to pardon Julian Assange and Edward Snowden – without whom we wouldn’t know about intrusive government surveillance programs, the United States’ aggressive drone strike program, or that Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign manager and his brother are apparently into ‘spirit cooking‘ with a satanic performance artist.

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        According to Stone, pardoning the pair of whistleblowers “will take the edge off his pardons for his family & loyalists by being unselfish and not self-serving. And at the least, confound his many critics — as well as future historians.”

        Second, “It will drive his enemies in #DeepState and #Media absolutely nuts!“

        “A pardon of @Snowden and #Assange would be a great shock to this world, and reflect well on @realDonaldTrump,” wrote Stone in a Thursday tweet. “Despite all the negatives he’s created, it will be seen as a purely merciful action. It will not be forgotten.”

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        On Thursday, Edward Snowden asked President Trump to pardon Assange.

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        Snowden — who released classified documents on surveillance programs — fled to Hong Kong, and later to Moscow, to seek asylum. He tweeted last month that he and his wife were applying for Russian citizenship. 

        Meanwhile, Assange faces a sentence of up to 175 years in prison if convicted of charges of conspiring to hack government computers and for violating the 1917 Espionage Act for “unlawfully obtaining and disclosing classified documents related to the national defence.” –The Hill

        https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsMeanwhile for more on Oliver Stone, read: Oliver Stone, America Firster authored by Bill Kauffman via The American Conservative

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        At root, Oliver Stone is a patriot who despises the American Empire for corrupting his country, and a far cry from your run-of-the-mill Hollywood liberal.

        I first became aware of Oliver Stone when in 1986 I was watching his film Salvador with an audience of left-wing Santa Barbarians. They were enjoying this madcap cinematic indictment of Uncle Sam’s imperialist crimes in Central America—until a scene in which the rebel forces, riding to town like a Marxist cavalry in the righteous cause of The People, began executing the unenlightened. Then the boos rang down.

        Who is this guy, I wondered. My curiosity was whetted further when the P.C. reviewer in the Los Angeles Herald denounced Stone’s screenplays for earlier films: “Movies like Midnight Express, Scarface, and Year of the Dragon are such grand-scale xenophobic fever-dreams that they almost demand to be remade into operas, complete with belching smoke and lurid lighting and crimson-suited devils scurrying out of the wings to pitchfork lily-white Mother America.”

        Ah, a left-wing America Firster! 

        Not quite, as his subsequent work and his entertaining new memoir, Chasing the Light, illumine, but Oliver Stone, our most political major filmmaker, evinces a rowdily heterodox vision shaped by the unusual quartet of Jim Morrison, Sam Peckinpah, Frank Capra, and Jean-Luc Godard.

        What do you call a man who joins the Merchant Marine on a whim, runs up big pro football gambling debts, and takes the Old Right view of FDR’s foreknowledge of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor?

        I’d call him an American.

        Stone was a rich kid, the son of an FDR-hating Jewish Republican who had served on Eisenhower’s Supreme Headquarters Allied Expeditionary Force staff and a French Catholic party girl. He attended the Hill School, played on the tennis team, was devastated by his parents’ divorce, and then went seriously off script.

        Avid for experiences, Stone dropped out of Yale, taught in a Catholic school in Taiwan, and volunteered to fight in Vietnam. He came home with a Bronze Star, shrapnel in his ass, and a taste for “powerful Vietnamese weed.”

        Stone’s politics hadn’t changed all that much, though. He had supported Barry Goldwater in 1964 and would vote for Ronald Reagan in 1980. In later years he became more explicitly libertarian, expressing support for Ron Paul and making a film about Edward Snowden. 

        At root, Oliver Stone is a patriot who despises the American Empire for corrupting his country. JFK, his fantasia on the Deep State, echoes Dwight Eisenhower’s warning that “we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence” by “the military-industrial complex.” Platoon and Salvador bespeak an old-fangled American anti-interventionism in an age when that tendency, once the default position of ordinary Americans, is a virtual thoughtcrime. 

        Lost innocence is as common in Stone’s films as splattered blood. In Midnight Express, the Turkish prison movie to end all Turkish prison movies, protagonist Billy Hayes is a Long Island college kid just trying to make a few bucks by smuggling two kilos of hashish to sell to his friends. Heck, it’s no different than being the guy who runs out to pick up the pizza and beer at halftime! (The real Hayes, as Stone later learned, was on his fourth smuggling run and was about as innocent as Brad Davis, the deeply troubled actor who played him.)

        When his sentence is stretched from four to 30 years, Billy explodes in a Stone-penned courtroom rant that belongs in the xenophobe’s hall of fame: “For a nation of pigs it sure is funny you don’t eat ’em … I hate you, I hate your nation, and I hate your people.”

        Yikes! As the husband of an Armenian I’m not overly sensitive to slights against the Turkish nation, but this was a tad intemperate. But so was the left-wing French newspaper Liberation, which reviled Stone as “a madman of the Right.”

        A pithier America First line from Stone’s pen came in Year of the Dragon (1985), when a New York City cop (Mickey Rourke) responds to a Chinese gangster who is describing his culture’s ancient tolerance of gambling and extortion: “This is America you’re living in and it’s 200 years old, so you’d better get your clocks fixed.”

        Stone’s co-writer on Year of the Dragon was Michael Cimino, whose Oscar-winning epic The Deer Hunter was unusual for its sympathetic treatment of small-town working-class men whose church is central to their lives. Critic Pauline Kael sneered at The Deer Hunter’s “traditional isolationist message: Asia should be left to the Asians, and we should stay where we belong, but if we have to be over there we’ll show how tough we are.” A Trumpian message, on Trump’s better days. Cimino blew up his career with the sprawling Heaven’s Gate, a commercial disaster that snuffed his long-dreamt-of goal of filming Ayn Rand’s novels The Fountainhead and Atlas Shrugged.

        Liberal Hollywood, eh? 

        Bill Kauffman is the author of 11 books, among them Dispatches from the Muckdog Gazette and Ain’t My America.

      • Feds Admit $2.3 Trillion In Improper Payments
        Feds Admit $2.3 Trillion In Improper Payments

        Tyler Durden

        Sat, 12/05/2020 – 21:15

        Submitted by Adam Andrzejewski,

        Since 2004, twenty large federal agencies have admitted to disbursing an astonishing $2.25 trillion in improper payments. Last year, these improper payments totaled $175 billion – that’s about $15 billion per month, $500 million per day, and $1 million a minute.

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        But what exactly is an improper payment?

        Federal law defines the term as “payments made by the government to the wrong person, in the wrong amount, or for the wrong reason.”

        When people or companies receive incorrect payments, it erodes trust and hinders the government’s ability to finance everything from defense to health care.

        Recently, auditors at OpenTheBooks.com published a 24-page oversight report analyzing why, how, and where federal agencies wasted our tax dollars last year.

        Here are the top 10 takeaways regarding improper and mistaken payments by the 20 largest federal agencies in 2019:

        1. Total Mistakes: $175 billion in estimated improper payments reported by the 20 largest federal agencies, averaging $14.6 billion per month – Total (FY2004-FY2019): $2.25 trillion.

        2. Worst Programs – $121 billion (approximately 69 percent) in improper payments occurred within three program areas – Medicaid, Medicare, and Earned Income Tax Credit.

        3. Claw Back – only $21.1 billion of the $175 billion improper payments during 2019 was recaptured — that’s only 14 cents on every dollar misspent. Five-year total: $103.6 billion recaptured/ $747.7 billion improperly spent

        4. Biggest Offenders:

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        5. Dead people: $871.9 million in mistaken payments were made to dead people. Medicaid, social security payments, federal retirement annuity payouts (pensions), and even farm subsidies were sent to dead recipients. Root cause: failure to verify death. Four-year total: $2.8 billion

        6. Ancient Americans: Six million Social Security numbers are active for people aged 112+; however, only 40 people in the world are known to be older than 112 years of age.

        7. Worst Upward Trend: Medicaid and Medicare improper payments soared from $64 billion (2012) to $88.6 billion (2017), and, in 2019, to $103.6 billion. Five-year total: $456 billion

        8. Best Turnaround: In 2018, the Education Department overpaid $6 billion to college students receiving PELL grants and student loans. In 2019, improper payments were reduced to $1.1 billion – an 85-percent reduction.

        9. Improper Income Redistribution: $17.4 billion in improper payments by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) within the Earned Income Tax Credit program. 25-percent of all payments were improper. Five-year total: $84.35 billion

        10. Purchasing Power: What can $175 billion buy? Last year, the federal government wasted the equivalent of a full year of all federal salaries, perks, and pension benefits for every employee of the federal executive agencies. A stunning example of institutionalized incompetence.

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        Justifications for their improper payments vary by agency.

        For example, Veterans Affairs (VA) says they are working on the problem and, yet, have a long way to go:

        “During FY19 testing for improper payments, VA found that many root causes of improper payments still have not been remediated. While the VA is actively working corrective actions to remediate these complex problems, VA completes its statically valid testing for Improper Payments Elimination & Recovery Act) one year in arrears…”

        The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) flat out admits that their improper payments ($17.4 billion FY2019) will continue:

        “… the IRS does not have the resources to audit every return claiming return tax credits… Without legislative change to greatly improve effective tools to administer these credits, the improper payment rate will not drastically change.”

        Over the years, improper payments is an issue that has attracted reform efforts on both sides of the aisle.

        In 2009, President Barack Obama issued an executive order to stop improper payments in the core programs of the federal government. Core programs provide services such as Medicare and Medicaid.

        In 2020, President Donald Trump emphasized the importance of eliminating improper payments in the President’s Budget to Congress FY2021.

        But with billions of dollars misspent every year, it’s obvious that both administrations failed to successfully address the issue of improper payments and much more needs to be done.

      • MicroStrategy Buys Another $50 Million In Bitcoin At $19,427; Bringing Total To Half A Billion
        MicroStrategy Buys Another $50 Million In Bitcoin At $19,427; Bringing Total To Half A Billion

        Tyler Durden

        Sat, 12/05/2020 – 20:50

        Last week, just after Bitcoin’s first modest correction since the start of its March rally which prompted an amusing twitter meltdown by Nouriel Roubini, we reported that one of the world’s biggest fixed income asset managers, Guggenheim Partners, jumped on the bitcoin bandwagon when it announced that it was reserving the right for its $5.3 billion Macro Opportunities Fund to invest in the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust whose shares are solely invested in Bitcoin, and track the digital asset’s price less fees and expenses.

        Guggenheim’s (partial) embrace of Bitcoin following PayPal’s announcement a few weeks later that it had enabled crypto transactions for all its clients, sparking the latest leg higher in bitcoin. It also came following glowing endorsement from legendary investors such as Paul Tudor Jones and Stan Druckenmiller, and in the aftermath of Jack Dorsey’s “other” company, Square, which said in October that it bought 4,709 bitcoins, worth approximately $50 million, about 1% of Square’s total assets.

        “Square believes that cryptocurrency is an instrument of economic empowerment and provides a way for the world to participate in a global monetary system, which aligns with the company’s purpose,” the company said in a release. Square founder Jack Dorsey, whose twitter bio only includes the hashtag #bitcoin…

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        … has been a advocate of the digital currency, saying in 2018 the cryptocurrency will eventually become the world’s “single currency.” However the founder of Twitter said it could take a long as a decade.

        Perhaps… but for others the payback from investing in bitcoin has come far sooner, most recently the publicly traded business-intel firm, MicroStrategy, which on August 11 sent a shockwave around the globe when it announced it had poured all $250 million of its planned inflation-hedging funds into the digital currency.

        Not content with the 100% return its stock has generated since then, on Friday MicroStrategy announced that it has bought even more Bitcoin.

        In an 8-K, the company announced that it had purchased “approximately 2,574 bitcoins for $50.0 million at an average price of approximately $19,427 per bitcoin.” As a result, as of December 4, 2020, the Company held approximately 40,824 bitcoins that were acquired at an aggregate purchase price of $475.0 million. Microstrategy CEO Michael Saylor confirmed as much in a subsequent tweet:

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        And since the current market value of the company’s bitcoin holdings is currently $770 million, or a 60% return in just a few months, one can see why the stock price of MSTR is up 165% since the day it announced its first Bitcoin purchase.

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        In September, Saylor told Bloomberg that the purchase were being done because he sees the cryptocurrency as less risky than cash or gold. On Monday, Bitcoin surpassed its December 2017 record high of $19,511, and even though it neared $20,000 it wasn’t able to crack that key level, and after peaking at $19,914 has bounced around mostly in a range between $18,500 to $19,500 since.

        This brings us to a question we asked last weekend: “whereas in 2017 it was all the rage to pivot to “blockchain”, we wonder how long before every public company converts some (or all) of its cash and equivalents into bitcoin similar to MicrosStrategy and Square, in hopes of reaping a quick surge in its stock price” (we wonder how much of MSTR’s bitcoin purchase just a few days later was prompted by this rhetorical question).

        If it’s up to Saylor, we wouldn’t have long to wait: as the CEO tweeted earlier today “If you don’t fantasize about flaunting it, floating in it, flying in it, frolicking with it, fortifying it, or fighting over it, you should probably play it safe and just buy #Bitcoin.”

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      • Trump Orders Withdrawal Of Nearly All US Troops From Somalia
        Trump Orders Withdrawal Of Nearly All US Troops From Somalia

        Tyler Durden

        Sat, 12/05/2020 – 20:25

        President Trump has ordered the immediate withdrawal of the “majority” of American troops from Somalia, according to a Pentagon announcement made Friday. There’s an estimated 700 troops currently inside the country. 

        “The President of the United States has ordered the Department of Defense and the United States Africa Command to reposition the majority of personnel and assets out of Somalia by early 2021,” the Pentagon said.

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        US military training in Africa, Getty Images

        The statement indicated that “some forces may be reassigned outside of East Africa,” however remaining troops are expected to go elsewhere within Africa Command (AFRICOM) to “allow cross-border operations”. This is parallel to how the draw down from Germany is envisioned – some troops coming home to US soil with others stationed elsewhere in Europe. 

        The American public might be forgiven for never knowing there are American troops and bases in Somalia in the first place.

        After all, the war-torn country in the Horn of Africa only sporadically hits the news when things go horribly wrong, such as with major pirate attacks on tankers in the Gulf of Aden, or last month’s death of a CIA officer reportedly during a raid on a suspected al-Shabaab bomb-maker, and then there’s the disastrous ‘Black Hawk Down’ 1993 mission wherein 18 American soldiers were killed.

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        US forces are there ostensibly to help train national Somali security forces, and to conduct covert raids and drone warfare against local and regional terrorists like al-Shabab. In 2019 alone, for example, the Trump administration conducted an unprecedented 63 airstrikes in Somalia.

        Trump is attempting a last-ditch effort to “bring our troops home” – something he emphasized heavily on the campaign trail. However, something like a full Syria pull-out would be seen as more significant, given that this theatre presents the greater potential for US entering a major regional war.

      • Goldman Sees More Chinese Bond Defaults
        Goldman Sees More Chinese Bond Defaults

        Tyler Durden

        Sat, 12/05/2020 – 20:00

        By Ye Xie, Bloomberg macro commentator

        President Donald Trump has continued bashing China. This time, his administration restricted travel visas for members of the Chinese Communist Party and banned cotton imports from a military-linked firm it accused of “slave labor.”

        So far, all of these moves, including the House bill that could lead to the delisting of Chinese companies on American exchanges, are roughly in line with market expectations. They don’t touch sensitive issues like the trade deal or sanctions on major banks. And investors have largely shrugged it off, with the yuan trading at the strongest in more than two years.

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        Looking at the domestic market, the fallout from the recent onshore bond defaults seems to be lessening after the government vowed to crack down on “debt evasion”. The credit spread of AA-rated bonds over government debt has stabilized after widening in recent weeks. Thus far, the default scare hasn’t caused major funding problems or market dislocation, which suggests that policy easing is unlikely.

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        What Beijing’s trying to do is break the implicit government guarantee and moral hazard of debt without triggering systemic and contagion risks. The net effect of this “credit cleanup” strategy will be more onshore defaults next year and more differentiation among weak and strong borrowers, according to Goldman Sachs’s Kenneth Ho and Chakki Ting. 

        The strategists expect the pace of new defaults to revert to the levels of 2018 and 2019, when there was an average of three to four new defaults a month. For the offshore market, strategists expect the pace of defaults to moderate because there was less forbearance this year, predicting that the high-yield default rate will drop to 4.3% next year from 4.9% this year.

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        It looks like 2021 is going to be another bumpy ride.

      • Head Of World's Largest Sovereign Wealth Fund Forced Out Because His Wife Is Chinese
        Head Of World’s Largest Sovereign Wealth Fund Forced Out Because His Wife Is Chinese

        Tyler Durden

        Sat, 12/05/2020 – 19:30

        The deputy governor of the Norwegian central bank, Jon Nicolaisen, announced on Friday he was resigning because his application for renewed security clearance had been rejected because he has a Chinese wife.

        “The Norwegian Civil Security Clearance Authority informs me that the reason that I will not receive a renewed security clearance is that my wife is a Chinese citizen and resides in China, where I support her financially,” Nicolaisen said. “At the same time, they have determined that there are no circumstances regarding me personally that give rise to doubt about my suitability for obtaining a security clearance, but that this does not carry sufficient weight.”

        “I have now had to take the consequences of this,” he said as he tendered his resignation.

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        Jon Nicolaisen, head of the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund and deputy governor of Norway’s central bank, stepped down after being denied security clearance because he has a Chinese wife.

        The resignation takes effect immediately, according to a statement released by the central bank. It was not immediately clear who would replace him.

        In recent years, Norway has introduced stricter rules for the issuing of security clearances, making it difficult in many cases to get approval for anyone married to a person from a country with which Norway does not have security cooperation.

        Jon Nicolaisen, whose wife lives in China, has been married since 2010. He had his term at the bank extended in April, having originally been appointed in 2014. In other words for over a decade it wasn’t an issue who the central banker was married, but has suddenly become grounds for effective termination.

        In addition to taking part in setting monetary policy, Nicolaisen had been in charge of overseeing Norway’s $1.2 trillion sovereign wealth fund, the world’s largest.

        Central Bank Governor Oeystein Olsen said Nicolaisen’s departure would be a big loss: “I will miss Jon Nicolaisen in his post as deputy governor, where he performed his duties superbly as a close colleague and competent professional,” Central Bank Governor Oeystein Olsen said in a statement.

      • 'Virtuous Hypochondria': How One Man Lost A 'Friend' Of 20 Years…
        ‘Virtuous Hypochondria’: How One Man Lost A ‘Friend’ Of 20 Years…

        Tyler Durden

        Sat, 12/05/2020 – 19:00

        Authored by Eric Peters via EricPetersAutos.com,

        I parted ways yesterday with a friend of more than 20 years’ standing over his sickness – and my refusal to indulge it or even pretend to ignore it.

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        This ex-friend says I should don the Holy Rag because “I might be asymptomatic” and because I ought to “show a little respect for your fellow man” and that “It’s not all about you.” He added:

        “Grow your own food and you don’t need to interact with people. But if you want the benefits of society you have to participate and conform a bit.”

        Italics added.

        So I said good-bye.

        I “have to conform a bit”? I am obliged to literally show that I (supposedly) agree with the outrageous assertion that I might be sick – i.e., “asymptomatic” – and so present an ongoing, never-ending threat to other people that requires me to wear a Face Diaper – the religious vestment of the Sickness Cult – to assuage their fears?

        I attempted to reason with this friend.

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        It was like attempting to discuss Euclid with a rooster.

        “I’m not sick,” I texted him.

        “I’ve had two friends die from it,” he texted back. “And several still sick.”

        Me: “Well, I’m not sick. Therefore, I cannot transmit sickness. Therefore, wearing a rag over my face serves no medical purpose.”

        Him: “You might be asymptomatic.”

        Me: “Okay, so you are saying that the possibility I might be sick – even though I’m not coughing or sneezing or manifesting any symptoms of sickness and so there is no evidentiary/specific reason to suppose I am in fact sick, much less contagious – obligates me to act as if I am in fact sick and contagious and to literally put on something as a ‘protective’ measure, just in case and to ease your fears?”

        “In that case, why shouldn’t you be obliged to turn in your guns (my ex-friend likes guns) since many people are quite terrified of them and fear you might use them to harm them or someone they care about?”

        “If my fear that you might be – or do – some thing is enough to impose an obligation on you, then how do you feel about being made to wear an armband or similar highly visible item indicating that you are gay (my ex-friend is homosexual) and thus a potential transmitter of AIDS?”

        “The fact is you could possibly transmit AIDs. You might spit on me. You might rape someone. These are just as possible as ‘you might be asymptomatic’ ”…

        He didn’t like that much – and that was the end of the texting and the friendship.

        I do not mourn the loss.

        Because I understand this person is not and may never have been my friend. A friend doesn’t threaten violence nor countenance its threat. Yet that is precisely what my ex-friend advocates – in a mewling, gas-lighting way – when he urges me to “wear a mask” to “show a little respect for (my) fellow man” and then says I am obliged to “conform a little bit.”

        He means obey. And not merely obey.

        I must agree.

        I must show that I agree . . . by wearing a visible accoutrement of agreement.

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        Like the wearing of an armband, in another time.

        To not wear the armband then – or the Holy Rag now – is to give visual evidence of non-agreement and that is what these creeps cannot stand.

        Not that we are “asymptomatic” and might be plague carriers but that we disagree with them. That we do not share their virtuous hypochondria and by showing that we do not share it show contempt for it.

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        My now-ex-friend supports my being made to “conform a little bit” – and you, too. They will cheer when we are hounded by the Gesundheitpolizei for not wearing the Holy Rag and – soon – refusing to allow ourselves to be injected with god-knows-what. They will support our being excommunicated from life – not allowed to transact business, buy food.

        “If you want the benefits of society you have to participate and conform a bit.”

        Such people are no friends of mine.

        The words attributed to Edward I – the “longshanks” – come to mind: “A man does good business when he rids himself of a turd.

        *  *  *

        If you like what you’ve found here please consider supporting EPautos.  We depend on you to keep the wheels turning!  Our donate button is here.

      • No, Low Rates Do Not Lead To Higher Earnings Multiples: What That Means For Markets
        No, Low Rates Do Not Lead To Higher Earnings Multiples: What That Means For Markets

        Tyler Durden

        Sat, 12/05/2020 – 18:35

        With the S&P closing Friday at a new record high just shy of 3,700, which as we showed last week translates into a Shiller CAPE ratio now above levels where it was on the eve of the crash of 1929 for the first time since the dot com bubble…

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        … even Goldman has been forced to admit that stocks around the globe are at extremely elevated valuations relative to history not just on a forward P/E multiple basis…

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        … but across all valuation metrics…

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        … with one exception: the equity risk premium, which is also used in the so-called “Fed model”, both of which boil down to a simple concept: that low interest rates (and rates are now the lowest they have been in 4000 years of history) justify – and “allow” – high earnings multiples, implying that even if stocks are extremely overvalued since rates are at historic lows, investors have no choice but to keep buying stocks as there are no alternatives.

        But is that true?

        That’s the question which Gerard Minack, of Minack Advisors, raised this week as Bloomberg’s John Authers noted: do low interest rates on their own lead to higher earnings multiples?

        Well, contrary to what Goldman, Morgan Stanley and virtually every other bank writes using the “Fed Model” as the only valuation-based justification for projecting even higher S&P500 targets in 2021 and onward (most banks predict the S&P will rise another 10-15% next year), Minack’s answer is a resounding no: it’s not rational to bid up stocks just because rates are low.

        The reason is blindingly simple to anyone whose pay doesn’t depend on goalseeking a bullish narrative, namely that “all else is not equal”, or in other words, interest rates are usually low – i.e. disinflationary – because growth is bad, and as Authers redundantly clarifies, when growth is bad that tends to be bad for equities (except, paradoxically, now when collapsing global GDP has pushed world stocks to record highs).

        Minack digs deeper to find that there is a curved relationship between rates and equities over time: when rates come down from very high levels, equity multiples tend to improve, but when rates then drop to very low levels, equity multiples fall because this generally means that the economy is mired in a recession.

        The chart below from Minack maps the CAPE on one scale against the 10-year yield on the other for every month since 1925. It shows that the relationship between the two isn’t that strong. In fact, the best fit Minack can find, excluding the bubble dot-com years, has an R-squared of only 0.12, meaning only a weak correlation:

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        As Authers points out the dot-com bubble readings, in pink, are almost off the chart — irrationally high multiples given the interest rates of the time (everyone knows what happened next). The current reading, shown in bright red, is clearly alarming as it’s the only time outside of the dot com bubble when the CAPE ratio was this high. This isn’t a well-explored end of the spectrum, obviously, but stocks do look expensive… and of course, Wall Street is quick to point out that this is justified due to the record low yields. Further bolstering the bullish case, one can extrapolate Shiller’s logic to show that one would expect the excess yield to rise further as rates get to extreme lows. If the relationship with rates held as anticipated in his chart, then the excess yield as calculated by Shiller would be roughly double what it is now (and stocks, on Shiller’s suggested methodology, would look like a screaming buy).

        What if instead of nominal one uses real yields? Minack repeats his exercise to account for inflation, looking precisely at real yields which as one can imagine, are low present, but not historically unprecedented. As Bloomberg’s Authers writes, this exercise gives a slightly better correlation, “makes the dot-com bubble look like more of an outlier and, sadly, also makes the current point look like more of an outlier.” In short, while there have been a number of observations with 10-year nominal yields below the rate of inflation in the past, this is the most expensive that stocks have ever been during such a period:

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        What is particularly notable is that not every market is an outlier like the US: the next chart, which uses nominal yields since 1987, compares CAPEs and 10-year yields for developed markets outside the U.S., emerging markets, and the U.S. While the US is clearly a bubble, stocks outside the U.S. appear to be reasonably valued given the level of interest rates. It is only U.S. stocks look wildly overpriced across most valuation metrics as even Goldman would agree:

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        And here a nuance emerges: as Authers points out, in an intriguing development, the U.S. relationship between yields and earnings multiples has started to differ from its historic pattern only in the last six years. In other words, until the end of 2013, there was a much more discernible correlation, with an R-squared of 0.38. But since the end of 2013, earnings multiples have been without exception higher than the previous relationship with interest rates would have suggested. In fact, they have never been further away. To be clear, this means that they now look unambiguously expensive, given where interest rates are, even though interest rates are so low:

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        According to Authers, we can learn two things from this chart:

        • One is that the relationship between rates and earnings multiples changed at some point early in the last decade in the U.S., presumably when investors got used to the notion of enduring “lower for longer” rates coupled with low inflation. One possibility is that this was due to the belief that the traditional relationship between rates and the economy had broken down, in other words the advent of central planning by banks broke one of the most fundamental valuation relationships.
        • The second is that whatever is driving multiples higher, it isn’t rates. As the chart shows clearly enough, rates have been on or about where they are now for nine months. Earnings have dipped and then recovered, and yet this is the most expensive that stocks have been.

        In an attempt to find out what is driving multiples, Minack next turns to the FANG stocks, which he defines as the FAAANMs (for Facebook, Amazon.com, Apple, Alphabet, Netflix and Microsoft). The key finding is that their earnings have, until now, defied slow growth that defined the developed world during the post-crisis decade, and have even defied the slump that followed the Covid shock. The rest of the S&P 500, and indeed the rest of the world, did nothing remotely similar. The following stunning chart from Minack shows the internet platform groups’ earnings, rather than their share prices.

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        Of course, soaring earnings also mean soaring stock prices (especially when one applies record PE multiples), and on Friday the NYSE Fang+ index hit a new all-time high. As Authers shows, over the last five years, its performance has dwarfed that of the S&P 500, and the MSCI all-world index. While smaller stocks are beginning to make a relative comeback, the FANGs’ share prices are as high as they have ever been in absolute terms.

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        Putting it together, while much of the world has seen corporate earnings behave just as one would expect in a world of very low interest rates (i.e., in a very sluggish economy), a tiny group of U.S. companies have managed to defy that logic completely and seen their earnings explode, dragging the US stock market higher while leaving the 494 remaining S&P companies in the dust. And now, amid growing expectations of a post-vaccine boom, earnings estimates are rising even more. That leads stocks to trade at a higher multiple of past earnings. In other words, as Authers notes, “it is earnings expectations, not rates, that have brought the market up in the last month or so, on this logic, and it would be an earnings disappointment (presumably sparked by some disappointment with distribution of the vaccine) that would bring it down again.”

        As Minack summarizes:

        In short, the US has been exceptional – relative to both its own history and other markets – by re-rating in the low-rate post-GFC cycle. The reason global equities are re-rating now is because of improving growth expectations, not because rates are low. If the rally were to correct – and I think it’s getting frothy – then the catalyst will be a growth scare, not a rate scare. Having said that, it’s a terrific combination for equities if growth does improve as expected next year and rates stay low. That combination would be more beneficial for de-rated non-US markets than the re-rated US market.

        Indeed, anywhere one turns, one can find banks pushing the argument for favoring non-U.S. equities over the U.S. – JPMorgan did that just this week, when it downgraded US stocks and upgraded Europe.

        That said, even in a world where record low rates did not justify the record high in stocks, and as we have repeatedly cautioned the last thing markets want is to find out what will happen if rates do surprise by rising, especially if they spike higher in an uncontrolled manner similar to what happened during the 2013 taper tantrum when 10Y yields soared by 150bps in months. As Authers notes, “U.S. markets have been working on the assumption that they will stay low for a while. It has been an unspoken ceteris paribus clause” and for good reason: “The sharp corrections in response to slightly higher rates in 2013 and 2018 both forced central banks into climbdowns.”

        This is also the worst case conceived by Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson who last week said that “with our economists forecasting 7.5% nominal US GDP growth next year, a 1% 10-year Treasury bond looks awfully mispriced on a 12-month view. This has implications for equity valuations, especially longer-duration ones like the Nasdaq and S&P 500.”

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        Conversely, shorter-duration cyclical and value stocks get a boost from better growth and higher interest rates – hence the rotation we have been witnessing in the equity markets from the Nasdaq to the small-cap Russell 2000 over the past few months as markets contemplate a full reopening of the economy. “We think this rotation has further to go if we are right about the economy and rates” according to Wilson.

        Of course, the question is just how high will rates eventually go in a world where the recent record injection of M2 would suggest it is just a matter of time before we experience a record inflationary spike:

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        As Authers ominously concludes, “we don’t yet know the results of an experiment in which rates rise and central banks cannot climb down because the economy is growing and inflation is back” but we may very soon have to find out.

      • Why Does Bitcoin Have Value?
        Why Does Bitcoin Have Value?

        Tyler Durden

        Sat, 12/05/2020 – 18:10

        Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The American Institute for Economic Research,

        Even after eleven years experience, and a per Bitcoin price of nearly $20,000, the incredulous are still with us. I understand why. Bitcoin is not like other traditional financial assets. Even describing it as an asset is misleading. It is not the same as a stock, as a payment system, or a money. It has features of all these but it is not identical to them. What Bitcoin is depends on its use as a means of storing and porting value, which in turn rests of secure titles to ownership of a scarce good. Those without experience in the sector look at all of this and get frustrated that understanding why it is valuable is not so easy to grasp. 

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        In this article, I’m updating an analysis I wrote six years ago. It still holds up. For those who don’t want to slog through the entire article, my thesis is that Bitcoin’s value obtains from its underlying technology, which is an open-source ledger that keeps track of ownership rights and permits the transfer of these rights. Bitcoin managed to bundle its unit of account with a payment system that lives on the ledger. That’s its innovation and why it obtained a value and that value continues to rise. 

        Consider the criticism offered by traditional gold advocates, who have, for decades, pushed the idea that sound money must be backed by something real, hard, and independently valuable. Bitcoin doesn’t qualify, right? Maybe it does. 

        Bitcoin first emerged as a possible competitor to national, government-managed money in 2009. Satoshi Nakamoto’s white paper was released October 31, 2008. The structure and language of this paper sent the message: This currency is for computer technicians, not economists nor political pundits. The paper’s circulation was limited; novices who read it were mystified. 

        But the lack of interest didn’t stop history from moving forward. Two months later, those who were paying attention saw the emergence of the “Genesis Block,” the first group of bitcoins generated through Nakamoto’s concept of a distributed ledger that lived on any computer node in the world that wanted to host it.

        Here we are all these years later and a single bitcoin trades at $18,500. The currency is held and accepted by many thousands of institutions, both online and offline. Its payment system is very popular in poor countries without vast banking infrastructures but also in developed countries. And major institutions—including the Federal Reserve, the OECD, the World Bank, and major investment houses—are paying respectful attention and weaving blockchain technology into their operations.. 

        Enthusiasts, who are found in every country, say that its exchange value will soar even more in the future because its supply is strictly limited and it provides a system vastly superior to government money. Bitcoin is transferred between individuals without a third party. It is relatively low-cost to exchange. It has a predictable supply. It is durable, fungible, and divisible: all crucial features of money. It creates a monetary system that doesn’t depend on trust and identity, much less on central banks and government. It is a new system for the digital age.

        Hard lessons for hard money

        To those educated in the “hard money” tradition, the whole idea has been a serious challenge. Speaking for myself, I had been reading about bitcoin for two years before I came anywhere close to understanding it. There was just something about the whole idea that bugged me. You can’t make money out of nothing, much less out of computer code. Why does it have value then? There must be something amiss. This is not how we expected money to be reformed.

        There’s the problem: our expectations. We should have been paying closer attention to Ludwig von Mises’ theory of money’s origins—not to what we think he wrote, but to what he actually did write. 

        In 1912, Mises released The Theory of Money and Credit. It was a huge hit in Europe when it came out in German, and it was translated into English. While covering every aspect of money, his core contribution was in tracing the value and price of money—and not just money itself—to its origins. That is, he explained how money gets its price in terms of the goods and services it obtains. He later called this process the “regression theorem,” and as it turns out, bitcoin satisfies the conditions of the theorem.

        Mises’ teacher, Carl Menger, demonstrated that money itself originates from the market—not from the State and not from social contract. It emerges gradually as monetary entrepreneurs seek out an ideal form of commodity for indirect exchange. Instead of merely bartering with each other, people acquire a good not to consume, but to trade. That good becomes money, the most marketable commodity.

        But Mises added that the value of money traces backward in time to its value as a bartered commodity. Mises said that this is the only way money can have value.

        The theory of the value of money as such can trace back the objective exchange value of money only to that point where it ceases to be the value of money and becomes merely the value of a commodity…. If in this way we continually go farther and farther back we must eventually arrive at a point where we no longer find any component in the objective exchange value of money that arises from valuations based on the function of money as a common medium of exchange; where the value of money is nothing other than the value of an object that is useful in some other way than as money…. Before it was usual to acquire goods in the market, not for personal consumption, but simply in order to exchange them again for the goods that were really wanted, each individual commodity was only accredited with that value given by the subjective valuations based on its direct utility.

        Mises’ explanation solved a major problem that had long mystified economists. It is a narrative of conjectural history, and yet it makes perfect sense. Would salt have become money had it otherwise been completely useless? Would beaver pelts have obtained monetary value had they not been useful for clothing? Would silver or gold have had money value if they had no value as commodities first? The answer in all cases of monetary history is clearly no. The initial value of money, before it becomes widely traded as money, originates in its direct utility. It’s an explanation that is demonstrated through historical reconstruction.

        That’s Mises’ regression theorem.

        Bitcoin’s use value

        At first glance, bitcoin would seem to be an exception. You can’t use a bitcoin for anything other than money. It can’t be worn as jewelry. You can’t make a machine out of it. You can’t eat it or even decorate with it. Its value is only realized as a unit that facilitates indirect exchange. And yet, bitcoin already is money. It’s used every day. You can see the exchanges in real time. It’s not a myth. It’s the real deal.

        It might seem like we have to choose. Is Mises wrong? Maybe we have to toss out his whole theory. Or maybe his point was purely historical and doesn’t apply in the future of a digital age. Or maybe his regression theorem is proof that bitcoin is just an empty mania with no staying power, because it can’t be reduced to its value as a useful commodity.

        And yet, you don’t have to resort to complicated monetary theory in order to understand the sense of alarm surrounding bitcoin. Many people, as I did, just have a feeling of uneasiness about a money that has no basis in anything physical. Sure, you can print out a bitcoin on a piece of paper, but having a paper with a QR code or a public key is not enough to relieve that sense of unease.

        How can we resolve this problem? In my own mind, I toyed with the issue for more than a year. It puzzled me. I wondered if Mises’ insight applied only in a pre-digital age. I followed the speculations online that the value of bitcoin would be zero but for the national currencies into which it is converted. Perhaps the demand for bitcoin overcame the demands of Mises’ scenario because of a desperate need for something other than the dollar.

        As time passed—and I read the work of Konrad Graf, Peter Surda, and Daniel Krawisz—finally the resolution came. Bitcoin is both a payment system and a money. The payment system is the source of value, while the accounting unit merely expresses that value in terms of price. The unity of money and payment is its most unusual feature, and the one that most commentators have had trouble wrapping their heads around.

        We are all used to thinking of currency as separate from payment systems. This thinking is a reflection of the technological limitations of history. There is the dollar and there are credit cards. There is the euro and there is PayPal. There is the yen and there are wire services. In each case, money transfer relies on third-party service providers. In order to use them, you need to establish what is called a “trust relationship” with them, which is to say that the institution arranging the deal has to believe that you are going to pay.

        This wedge between money and payment has always been with us, except for the case of physical proximity.

        If I give you a dollar for your pizza slice, there is no third party. But payment systems, third parties, and trust relationships become necessary once you leave geographic proximity. That’s when companies like Visa and institutions like banks become indispensable. They are the application that makes the monetary software do what you want it to do.

        The hitch is that the payment systems we have today are not available to just anyone. In fact, a vast majority of humanity does not have access to such tools, which is a major reason for poverty in the world. The financially disenfranchised are confined to only local trade and cannot extend their trading relationships with the world.

        A major, if not a primary, purpose of developing Bitcoin was to solve this problem. The protocol set out to weave together the currency feature with a payment system. The two are interlinked in the structure of the code itself. This connection is what makes bitcoin different from any existing national currency, and, really, any currency in history.

        Let Nakamoto speak from the introductory abstract to his white paper. Observe how central the payment system is to the monetary system he created:

        A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution. Digital signatures provide part of the solution, but the main benefits are lost if a trusted third party is still required to prevent double-spending. We propose a solution to the double-spending problem using a peer-to-peer network. The network timestamps transactions by hashing them into an ongoing chain of hash-based proof-of-work, forming a record that cannot be changed without redoing the proof-of-work. The longest chain not only serves as proof of the sequence of events witnessed, but proof that it came from the largest pool of CPU power. As long as a majority of CPU power is controlled by nodes that are not cooperating to attack the network, they’ll generate the longest chain and outpace attackers. The network itself requires minimal structure. Messages are broadcast on a best effort basis, and nodes can leave and rejoin the network at will, accepting the longest proof-of-work chain as proof of what happened while they were gone.

        What’s very striking about this paragraph is that there is not even one mention of the currency unit itself. There is only the mention of the problem of double-spending (which is to say, the problem of inflationary money creation beyond which the protocol would otherwise permit). The innovation here, even according to the words of its inventor, is the payment network, not the coin. The coin or digital unit only expresses the value of the network. It is an accounting tool that absorbs and carries the value of the network through time and space.

        This network is the blockchain. It’s a ledger that lives in the digital cloud, a distributed network, and it can be observed in operation by anyone at any time. It is carefully monitored by all users. It allows the transference of secure and non-repeatable bits of information from one person to any other person anywhere in the world, and these information bits are secured by a digital form of property title. This is what Nakamoto called “digital signatures.” His invention of the cloud-based ledger allows property rights to be verified without having to depend on some third-party trust agency.

        The blockchain solved what has come to be known as the Byzantine generals’ problem. This is the problem of coordinating action over a large geographic range in the presence of potentially malicious actors. Because generals separated by space have to rely on messengers and this reliance takes time and trust, no general can be absolutely sure that the other general has received and confirmed the message, much less its accuracy.

        Putting a ledger, to which everyone has access, on the Internet overcomes this problem. The ledger records the amounts, the times, and the public addresses of every transaction. The information is shared across the globe and always gets updated. The ledger guarantees the integrity of the system and allows the currency unit to become a digital form of property with a title.

        Once you understand this, you can see that the value proposition of bitcoin is bound up with its attached payment network. Here is where you find the use value to which Mises refers. It is not embedded in the currency unit but rather in the brilliant and innovative payment system on which bitcoin lives. If it were possible for the blockchain to be somehow separated from bitcoin (and, really, this is not possible), the value of the currency would instantly fall to zero.

        Proof of concept

        Now, to further understand how Mises’ theory fits with bitcoin, you have to understand one other point concerning the history of the cryptocurrency. On the day of its release (January 9, 2009), the value of bitcoin was exactly zero. And so it remained for 10 months after its release. All the while, transactions were taking place, but it had no posted value above zero for this entire time.

        The first posted price of bitcoin appeared on October 5, 2009. On this exchange, $1 equaled 1,309.03 Bitcoin (which many considered overpriced at the time). In other words, the first valuation of bitcoin was little more than one-tenth of a penny. Yes, if you had bought $100 worth of bitcoin in those days, and not sold them in some panic, you would be a half-billionaire today.

        So here is the question: What happened between January 9 and October 5, 2009, to cause bitcoin to obtain a market value? The answer is that traders, enthusiasts, entrepreneurs, and others were trying out the blockchain. They wanted to know if it worked. Did it transfer the units without double-spending? Did a system that depended on voluntary CPU power actually suffice to verify and confirm transactions? Do the rewarded bitcoins land in the right spot as payment for verification services? Most of all, did this new system actually work to do the seemingly impossible—that is, to move secure bits of title-based information through geographic space, not by using some third party but rather peer-to-peer?

        It took 10 months to build confidence. It took another 18 months before bitcoin reached parity with the U.S. dollar. This history is essential to understand, especially if you are relying on a theory of money’s origins that speculates about the pre-history of money, as Mises’ regression theorem does. Bitcoin was not always a money with value. It was once a pure accounting unit attached to a ledger. This ledger obtained what Mises called “use value.” All conditions of the theorem are thereby satisfied.

        Final accounting

        To review, if anyone says that bitcoin is based on nothing but thin air, that it cannot be a money because it has no real history as a genuine commodity, and whether the person saying this is a novice or a highly trained economist, you need to bring up two central points.

        One, bitcoin is not a stand-alone currency but a unit of accounting attached to an innovative payment network.

        Two, this network and therefore bitcoin only obtained its market value through real-time testing in a market environment.

        In other words, once you account for the razzle-dazzle technical features, bitcoin emerged exactly like every other currency, from salt to gold, did. People found the payment system useful, and the attached accounting was portable, divisible, fungible, durable, and scarce.

        A new form of money was born. This money has all the best features of money from history but adds a weightless and spaceless payment network, one that is reliable and verified in real time, that enables the entire world to trade without having to rely on third parties. 

        But notice something extremely important here. The blockchain is not only about money. It is about any information transfers that require security, confirmations, and total assurance of authenticity. This pertains to contracts and transactions of all sorts, all performed peer-to-peer. 

        To be sure, the sector has come to be dominated by third parties that operate mainly as custodians. The crucial point is that this is a market development driven by consumer desire but it is not necessary for the functioning of the system. In addition, thousands of additional tokens have appeared that operate and compete in the crypto sector which is now worth, at the time of this writing, $560 billion in market capitalization. 

        Think of a world without essential third parties, including the most dangerous third party ever conceived of by man: the state and the central bank. Imagine that future and you begin to grasp the fullness of the implications of our future.

        Ludwig von Mises would be amazed and surprised at bitcoin. But he might also feel a sense of pride that his monetary theory of more than a century ago has been confirmed and given new life in the 21st century.

      • The NBA Is No Longer Testing For Marijuana Use
        The NBA Is No Longer Testing For Marijuana Use

        Tyler Durden

        Sat, 12/05/2020 – 17:45

        With marijuana getting close to being decriminalized and with predictions of over 80% of all NBA players smoking weed, the NBA looks like it has finally given up on random marijuana testing. 

        The deal appears to have been cut with the help of the NBA Players Association, who seems intent on pinning its motivation (for some reason) on Covid – which is, of course, a virus that affects the lungs.

        League spokesperson Mike Bass told NBC Sports: “Due to the unusual circumstances in conjunction with the pandemic, we have agreed with the NBPA to suspend random testing for marijuana for the 2020-21 season. And focus our random testing program on performance-enhancing products and drugs of abuse.”

        One beneficiary of the new rules will likely be J.R. Smith, who said in a post game interview in 2018 that his shooting was “very green” but “not as green as that green I’m gonna hit tomorrow.”

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        Marijuana will still stay on the NBA’s banned substances list, but the league is clearly shifting away from enforcing its rules against the substance. When the league altered its rules to play at the Orlando Bubble during the pandemic, it suspended random testing for the drug for the first time. 

        NBA players had previously been required to submit to four random tests per season. “If a player tested positive for marijuana once, he was required to enter the NBA’s drug program. Twice, he would be fined $25,000 and a third time would result in a five-game suspension,” NBC Sports writes.

        And while a majority of NBA players may use marijuana, the league isn’t the only one moving away from enforcing rules about it. The MLB has also removed marijuana from its “drugs of abuse” list in December 2019 and turned its focus to opioids. 

        The NBA still may revert back to its old rules for the 2021-2022 season, but we think it’s more likely that pot rules go “up in smoke” for good. Congrats, J.R.

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      • Breakeven Inflation Is Breaking Out
        Breakeven Inflation Is Breaking Out

        Tyler Durden

        Sat, 12/05/2020 – 17:20

        Authored by Bryce Coward via Knowledge Leaders Capital blog,

        Inflation expectations as priced by the Treasury market are hitting 18 month highs just now. As the reader can see, inflation expectations across all treasury maturities are at cycle highs.

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        This is happening coincident with growing expectations for the $908bn bipartisan stimulus deal and widespread expectations that the Fed will ease in some additional way at their next meeting 12 days from now.

        That these two events are anticipated by the market does pose some near-term downside risk for inflation expectations, since there is now room for disappointment. Even still, keeping the long game in mind is useful.

        Indeed, there exist multiple structural catalysts for inflationary pressure that haven’t existed in quite some time:

        • de-globalization

        • USD which may be under continued pressure from massive twin current account and budget deficits

        • the possibility that US oil production has peaked, or at least will not grow as it did last cycle

        • raw material (especially base metal) inflation from the acceleration of green transport and power generation trends

        • demand-pull inflation from fiscal stimulus

        Within the equity market, there are clear implications to a structural change in inflation expectations. The clearest one may be the outperformance of cyclical vs defensive stocks. In the next chart below I compare the materials sector vs the consumer staples sector (red line) and overlay 10Y inflation expectations (blue line). The bottom panel displays the correlation between the two series in green. If breakevens continue to march higher, it’s clear one wants a more cyclical tilt towards their portfolio.

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        On the other hand, cyclicality does not equal value. This is apparent in the chart below in which I plot the relative performance of Pure Value vs Pure Growth stocks overlaid on inflation expectations.

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        The correlation here is much, much less than the preceding chart. As I have argued multiple times in this blog, value as a style is highly dependent on the yield curve steepening. Because the Fed has telegraphed an inclination to push against back against higher long rates (yield curve control, forward guidance, etc.), a material and sustained steepening of the yield curve (i.e. one that lasts through the first half of 2021) doesn’t seem like a particularly high probability bet.

        At least, the bet on cyclical vs defensive is a higher probability and one that will grow if the inflationary catalysts above play out.

      • COVID Lockdowns Ordered For SoCal, San Joaquin Valley As California Sees Record 25K Cases: Live Updates
        COVID Lockdowns Ordered For SoCal, San Joaquin Valley As California Sees Record 25K Cases: Live Updates

        Tyler Durden

        Sat, 12/05/2020 – 17:01

        Summary:

        • Lockdown orders issued for Southern California & the San Joaquin Valley
        • NY reports another 10K+ new case, 69 deaths
        • California sees record 25K COVID cases
        • North Carolina reported 6K cases
        • US reports record COVID cases
        • US 7-day average cases at record high
        • 2.6K deaths confirmed Friday in US
        • UK to start vaccinations Dec. 14
        • Labour leader enters quarantine after staffer tests positive
        • Moscow begins COVID vaccinations Saturday
        • Cases in the Netherlands rise for 2nd straight day
        • Saudi Arabia reports fewer than 200 cases for first time in months
        • Iran 8th country to see deaths top 50K
        • Russian cases top 2.4MM, 4th highest in the world
        • More Danes infected by Mink farm mutations
        • Hong Kong to test taxi drivers as cases rise
        • Hungary sets another record for deaths

        * * *

        Update (1650ET): Following today’s record numbers and rising hospitalizations, the state is imposing stay at home orders for two of the California’s five regions: SoCal, and the San Joaquin Valley. The new orders, which will remain in place for at least three weeks, are triggered when a region’s ICU capacity drops below 15%.

        The Southern California region’s capacity was 12.5% as of Saturday and the San Joaquin Valley’s was 8.6% according to state data.

        As the LAT points out, the order will be felt across the region, but much more dramatically in suburban counties like Orange County, Ventura and Riverside, which have much less restrictive rules than Los Angeles County, which imposed its own lockdown a week ago. The Southern California region includes the following counties: Imperial, Inyo, Los Angeles, Mono, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara and Ventura.

        The new rules require personal service businesses, including hair and nail salons, playgrounds, zoos, museums, aquariums and wineries, to close. Overnight, short-term stays at campgrounds will be prohibited. Restaurants must return to takeout service only. Retail businesses will be limited to just 20% of their customer capacity inside at any one time, with requirements for store officials to ensure there’s no indoor drinking or eating.

        Though, unlike Newsom’s order from earlier in the year, hiking and beach access won’t be affected.

        * * *

        Update (1625ET): In its latest update, NY Gov Andrew Cuomo reported another 10K+ new cases as the statewide positivity rate hit 4.99%.

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        He also reported another 69 deaths.

        * * *

        Update (1440ET): Saturday is shaping up to be another tough day with record numbers recorded in states across the country, while infections and hospitalizations climbed in NYC.

        Less than a day after San Francisco joined LA in ordering a new lockdown, the state of California has reported more than 25K new cases, notching a new record (that’s a +1.9%).

        Maine reported a record daily average number of cases, 265 over the last week, the state’s Center for Disease Control reported Saturday.

        North Carolina reported 6K new cases, another record at the end of week in which daily cases topped 5K on three days/. Hospitalizations also climbed to a record 2,171.

        Arizona reported 6,799 new cases on Saturday, the fourth time this week that the state recorded more than 5,000 daily Covid-19 infections. During the state’s earlier surge last summer, Arizona never hit the 5,000-a-day mark.

        * * *

        Capping off another brutal week of COVID-19 infections in the US that saw LA and SF order up new lockdowns, health authorities from across the country reported a total of 224.8K new cases on Friday, a new single-day record.

        According to the COVID Tracking Project, the US is still reported more than 1.8MM daily COVID-19 tests, while the number of currently-hospitalized patients has climbed to 101K.

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        Daily deaths eclipsed 2K yet again on Friday, though the 2.6K new deaths was just below post-springtime highs reached earlier in the week. All told, the US has confirmed 269.8K COVID-19 deaths.

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        The 7-day average for daily cases is also at record highs.

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        As far as individual states are concerned, 35 are seeing hospitalizations continue to climb, even as governors and mayors tighten restrictions in some hard hit areas (though some governors have been less willing to impose tough mandatory restrictions, arguing compliance with all social distancing rules should be voluntary).

        Notably, some of the hard-hit midwestern and plain states like ND, SD, IL & WI are seeing hospitalizations fall, though those declines are being more than compensated for by rising numbers elsewhere.

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        Regionally speaking, the South has taken over from the Midwest as the worst hit part of the US.

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        Globally, cases have exceeded 66 million, while deaths have topped 1.52 million.

        In the UK, officials have set a date – Dec. 14 – on which the first doses of the Pfizer coronavirus vaccine will be dispensed to the highest-priority patients (a group that includes health-care workers, nursing home residents and certain ‘essential’ workers). The NHS has a goal of delivering 975 doses per site to priority patients during that week, according to a copy of a letter sent to doctors on Friday. As cases continue to recede thanks to the BoJo’s tougher restrictions, Kier Starmer, the man who replaced Jeremy Corbyn as leader of the UK’s opposition Labour Party, has entered self-isolation after a member of his staff tested positive.

        As daily new cases reach record highs with Russian health officials reported 28.8K new cases over the last 24 hours, Moscow kicked off widespread vaccinations of frontline workers and other high-risk people on Saturday, following a Wednesday order from Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Mayor of Moscow claimed that more than 5,000 people signed up in the first five hours of registration on Friday.

        The Kremlin has resisted a broad lockdown, putting the responsibility for imposing restrictions on regional governments.

        Russia now has reported a total of more than 2.4MM cases, the fourth-most in the world, behind India (No. 3) and ahead of France (No. 5).

        Here’s more COVID-19 news from Saturday morning and overnight:

        The number of new cases in the Netherlands increased for the second day in a row. There were 6,577 new reported infections on Saturday, up from 5,921 on Friday and 5,634 on Thursday, ANP said. Measures by the Dutch government had previously lowered the daily number of cases to below 5,000 from 10,000 or more.

        Saudi Arabia’s health ministry reported 190 new cases, the first daily count below 200 in eight months (Source: Saudi Arabia).

        Iran’s confirmed virus fatalities since the start of the pandemic have topped 50K, making Iran the 8th country to pass that milestone (Source: Bloomberg).

        The nation had 321 deaths overnight, down from 347 a day earlier, while the number of new infections fell 9% in the last 24 hours to 12.15K, bringing total known cases to 1.03MM (Source: Bloomberg).

        Germany will probably start mass vaccinations by summer and conclude the majority of its immunization efforts by the fall, according to Health Minister Jens Spahn (Source: Bloomberg).

        There has been a marked increase in the number of Danes infected by a form of the coronavirus with mutations that originated in mink farms, Berlingske reported, citing SSI, the Danish government agency for fighting infectious diseases. The estimated number of cases is approaching 2,700 (Source: Bloomberg).

        Hong Kong announced a one-time mandatory test for taxi drivers beginning Dec. 9. The city has seen 100+ new cases for 2 days in a row (Source: Bloomberg).

        Hungary set another daily record for COVID related deaths, as Prime Minister Viktor Orban prepares to announce whether virus curbs will be relaxed for the holiday period (Source: Bloomberg).

        There were 36,652 new confirmed Covid-19 cases in India, taking the official case tally to 9,608,211, the Press Trust of India reports (Source: Bloomberg).

      • Snowflake CEO Earns $95 Million Per Month
        Snowflake CEO Earns $95 Million Per Month

        Tyler Durden

        Sat, 12/05/2020 – 16:55

        We don’t know whether or not to blame this excess on inflation and endless money printing, or just pure public market insanity. So, we’ll let the reader decide.

        Either way, it was revealed yesterday that the CEO of cloud computing company Snowflake, Frank Slootman, has a compensation package that is earning him about $95 million per month. 

        Admittedly, Slootman was in the news because Snowflake had posted a great third quarter revenue number and its stock is up more than 200% since going public just months ago in September. 

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        But his pay soon became the topic of discussion. A compensation package he accepted in April 2019 – before the IPO and before he knew how the public market would receive his company – awards him more than 13.7 million options with a strike price of $8.88, according to The Detroit News. 

        Snowflake currently trades at about $373 per share and Slootman’s entire options package could be worth about $4.5 billion once it is paid out in full in 2023. So far, Slootman has yet to exercise any of his options, which come on top of a $375,000 per year base salary.

        The company’s CFO has a similar package and is raking in options worth about $25 million per month.

        Meanwhile, Snowflake’s valuation has rocketed from $3.5 billion in October 2018 to $96 billion. 

        So the moral of the story is: if you see Frank Slootman at a bar and he offers to pick up the check – let him.

      • Is The Gold Sell-Off Over?
        Is The Gold Sell-Off Over?

        Tyler Durden

        Sat, 12/05/2020 – 16:30

        Authored by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com,

        The dramatic sell-off of the last few weeks ended on Monday morning when gold spiked down to an intraday low of $1765 (silver $21.90). But in morning trading today in the European time zone gold was at $1843, up $56 from last Friday’s close, and silver at $24.28, up $1.65 on the same timescale.

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        The sell-off in paper gold was a repetition of events every November and December bar one since 2015, and the cause appeared to be the same. In the run-up to the year end, the bullion banks manage prices in a book squaring exercise, using the expiry of the December contract to squeeze out the bulls. The only exception was 2018, when they failed to push prices lower, but they still rose strongly into 2019.

        This time, an estimated 150,000 gold call options expired worthless, representing 467 tonnes of gold. The premium income must have been substantial, a welcome offset for the bullion banks’ to their book losses on Comex positions. The question now is, will the pattern of a rally through December into the New Year be repeated?

        The short position for the swaps has improved marginally as the table below indicates.

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        This snapshot, the most recent Commitment of Traders report at the time of writing, shows that the Swaps (bullion bank trading desks) recovered a net 7,895 of their shorts, still leaving them net short of 189,178 contracts. Historically, their position still remains high, despite the fall in the gold price and the reduction of their position. The next chart puts this in a monetary context.

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        It appears that the Swaps are not out of the woods yet by any means, and there is a growing threat from a tumbling dollar, which is our next chart.

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        This is important, because the Managed Money category, mainly hedge funds, look at gold as part of a pairs trade — sell dollar buy gold or buy gold sell dollar. With a net long position of 85,348 contracts, they have room to add a further 25,000 contracts to be only average net long. We will almost certainly have seen some of this buying in the Commitment of Traders’ report for last Tuesday, when the gold price rose strongly, due to be released later tonight.

        That would have increased the Swap’s net shorts, worsening their position.

        The other side of the coin is the larger forward market in London, where vaulted gold, including that of the Bank of England, has increased to record levels. Between August and October (the most recent figures), vaulted gold increased by 394.6 tonnes, split 192.3 tonnes at the BoE and 202.3 tonnes in LBMA vaults. Given the appetite for gold is increasing for the Bank’s earmarked customers and the growth in physical demand from ETFs, and not to mention the desire from unrecorded non-LMBA members for physical bars, it does not appear that the Comex short position is adequately offset in London.

        Compared with other financial assets seen to be inflation hedges, gold has been badly left behind. This is an anomaly likely to be addressed in the coming months.

      Digest powered by RSS Digest

      Dec 05

      Today’s News 5th December 2020

      • 2020: A Retrospective From 2025
        2020: A Retrospective From 2025

        Tyler Durden

        Fri, 12/04/2020 – 23:40

        Authored by Tom Trenchard via AmericanMind.org,

        Donald Trump and the Altogether True and Amazing Origin of the United American Counties.

        2020 marked an epoch in American history, standing alongside 1865, 1787, and 1776. First there was the COVID-19 pandemic, then there were the racial protests and riots throughout the summer, and then there was the disputed presidential election. Finally and most cataclysmically, though, 2020 witnessed the initial formation of the United American Counties (UACo) within the former United States of America. Five years later, it is only now becoming possible to assess the most important causes and consequences of this momentous development for American political society.

        As with most politically revolutionary events, the Declaration of UACo Independence was almost entirely unforeseen before it occurred, but almost inevitable in hindsight. By the early 2010s two things were clear:

        (1) Americans had become increasingly polarized in their worldviews and political beliefs; and

        (2) These polarized halves of the U.S. were increasingly sorting themselves into either urban or suburban/rural areas.

        Trump’s election in 2016 put a spotlight on these political realities; as Trump frequently boasted, the 2016 electoral map looked like a sea of red surrounding islands of blue. In 2020, that situation was essentially unchanged.

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        97% of land area in the U.S. constituted rural counties. Trump’s support within these counties was high and enthusiastic both in 2016 and 2020. Within the remaining 3% of the geographical U.S. – the big cities – anti-Trump sentiment was equally high and enthusiastic.

        The 2020 election was the perfect storm for a confrontation between these two factions. It looked like Trump was winning on election day, and then the mail-in ballots handed an apparent victory to Biden. Although widespread electoral fraud wasn’t uncovered by the protracted legal investigation that followed, the die had been cast. Trump and his supporters thought the election had been stolen, and that Trump was the legitimate president of the U.S.

        If it had only been the election dispute, tensions may have dissipated over time. Trump supporters may have learned to live with a Biden presidency, especially given GOP victories at the state level and in Congress. The problem was that the election dispute coincided with a deep polarization of worldviews and American historical narratives that had been building for decades. This polarization had proceeded to the extent of annihilating any possible common ground, rendering attempts at compromise or a “live and let live” approach impossible. We had become two Americas; and, as Lincoln had said, “a house divided against itself cannot stand.”

        In 1861, the outcome of this intractable situation was state secession. The division at this time was between slave states and free states. In 2020, the division was not so much between states as between rural and urban counties within states. In 1861, Lincoln was able to marshal the political will, the moral justification, and the economic and military resources necessary to maintain the original constitutional union by force. In 2020, none of these factors was present: Biden proved to be no Lincoln, and the country was too exhausted from the events of 2020 to muster an extended effort to compel union through force.

        An America Altogether New

        The rapid dissemination of the Declaration of UACo Independence in December 2020 provided the motivation and justification for the formation of a new political society within the former U.S.

        Its “List of Principles” effectively encapsulated the worldview of American political conservatives and echoed the Declaration of 1776: it endorsed “the equal natural rights bestowed by God on all human beings,” “limited and local self-government,” “the traditional family begun in marriage between one man and one woman,” and “the free market economy.”

        And its “List of Grievances” against the progressive liberal orthodoxy entrenched in corrupt urban areas supplied the relevant context for separation: chief among the complaints were “the suppression of freedom of speech” through cancel culture and thought policing, “the eclipse of local self-government by distant ruling elites,” “the replacement of equality under the law with identity politics,” “the rejection of the American political tradition,” and “the introduction of policies destructive of economic freedom.”

        As the Declaration was supplying the inspiration, Trump’s team supplied the necessary perspiration by working quickly and tirelessly to rally support and official endorsement from the hundreds of counties that had supported his election to office weeks before. The rapidity with which this was accomplished was crucial to its ultimate success, and almost unbelievable in hindsight. They were aided by the establishment of efficient systems of communication running throughout the hundreds of rural and suburban counties sympathetic to the movement—the so-called “Town Crier Committees.” This system, working in conjunction with self-dubbed “Minutemen” vigilante groups, provided the coordinated resistance necessary to enforce the county endorsements of Trump’s leadership.

        The preexistence of county government and law enforcement structures aided the transition as well. Early efforts by state governors to use state police and National Guard troops to compel adherence to state laws across vast UACo areas met with such resistance, both externally and internally, that they were quickly deemed impracticable. With the adoption of the provisional Constitution for the United American Counties in January 2021 by more than 500 counties—a number that would grow to nearly 2,000 by May of that same year—the stage was set for a decision by the newly-inaugurated Biden and the areas remaining under his jurisdiction. Would he go to war with Trump’s counties and attempt to compel union as Lincoln had?

        A Separate Peace

        Many factors weighed against this decision. There was, first, the lack of the kind of moral momentum that the abolition movement had supplied in the decades leading up to the Civil War. As Lincoln had long insisted, the controversy that brought on the Civil War was the question of whether slavery was right or wrong. The seceding states took a stand for its rightness, and the Union states took a stand for its wrongness. In 2020, there was no moral controversy that would come close to this kind of stark alternative; no higher ideal that would plausibly justify shedding the blood of fellow Americans.

        Secondly, although Biden technically assumed control of the powerful U.S. military, he and his advisors were justifiably wary of issuing an immediate order to mobilize this force—a majority of whom had voted for Trump in the election—against such a widespread movement involving innumerable family connections and divided loyalties for military service members. There was the problem of supply chains for manufacturing and transportation; since these relied upon and ran directly through large swaths of UACo-controlled territory, they could be easily disrupted either by the withholding of necessary support or through sabotage.

        There was also the immense practical difficulty of fighting a war against guerilla-type forces dispersed across more than 75% of the land area of the U.S. As the British had come to realize in the American Revolutionary War, such a conflict may well have been unwinnable, despite a large disparity in raw military and economic might.

        In the face of these obstacles to compelling union through force, Biden had no choice but to negotiate with Trump. The American Friendship Accords, finalized on the anniversary of election day the year before (November 3, 2021), officially established two sovereign nations (the United American Counties and the United American Cities), averted large-scale violent conflict, and established the economic and military agreements necessary to maintain cooperation between the two new political entities at a level similar to what had existed before.

        In 2025, just five short years after the tumultuous period of 2020-21, we seem to have entered a new era of American peace and prosperity. Relieved from the incessant tension of trying to reconcile fundamentally irreconcilable worldviews under a common government, polarized American society has achieved a kind of equilibrium. Common moral and political principles are once again able to provide the foundation for productive debate and coherent public policy within both the UACo and the UACi. The freedom of economic exchange and personal movement between the two has facilitated the growth of new ties of continental friendship where before there was polarization and enmity.

        It may still be too early to pronounce judgment on the new political situation in the former U.S. But so far, looking back on 2020 seems to confirm the old proverb: It’s always darkest just before the dawn.

      • Chaos & Suspicion: The Killing Of Iran's Nuclear Scientists
        Chaos & Suspicion: The Killing Of Iran's Nuclear Scientists

        Tyler Durden

        Fri, 12/04/2020 – 23:20

        New details are emerging about an attack that killed Iran’s most senior nuclear scientist last Friday. Initially, it was thought that Mohsen Fakhrizadeh’s car was attacked by undentified gunmen armed with automatic weapons and explosives. However, a Fars news agency report on Sunday evening states that Fakhrizadeh was actually killed by a remote-controlled weapon mounted in a vehicle that subsequently exploded. Iran has blamed Israel and an opposition group in exile called Mujahedeen-e-Khalq for the attack. A senior Iranian security official has described it as “highly complex”, adding that it was carried out with “electronic devices”.

        While Mohsen Fakhrizadeh is the most senior nuclear scientist to be killed in mysterious circumstances in Iran, Statista’s Niall McCarthy notes that he is by no means the first with Tehran holding Israel accountable for at least five assassinations.

        Infographic: Chaos & Suspicion: The Killing Of Iran's Nuclear Scientists | Statista

        You will find more infographics at Statista

        The first high-profile killing happened in early 2010 when Masoud Ali Mohammadi died after a bomb was detonated on a motorcycle when he left his home. The pattern of targeting nuclear scientists during their commute repeated itself in subsequent incidents and Majid Shahriar died when a motorcyclist attached a bomb to his car in November 2010. It remains unclear whether Darioush Rezaeineja was connected to the nuclear program but he was shot dead regardless by two gunmen on a motorcycle in July 2011. Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan was killed a year later when assailants on a motorcycle attached magnetic bombs to his car while he was on his way to work.

        Alongside the assassinations, a chain of mysterious blasts and fires at various facilities associated with the nuclear program have added to the chaos and suspicion. These have been happening for years with reports of major incidents emerging in 2011. That year, an explosion was heard at a nuclear facility in Isfahan and a blast occurred at a steel mill linked to the nuclear program in Yasd, killing seven people. They have become more frequent in 2020 with a major explosion rocking a missile-production complex in Khojir in June, followed by a blast that destroyed a building developing advanced centrifuges at the Natanz nuclear facility in July.

        The fact that a presidential transition is imminent in Washington D.C. has added to the tension, particularly as Joe Biden has pledged to resurrect the 2015 nuclear deal. It is unclear whether Tehran will be receptive given recent events, however, and it has already promised to push on with its nuclear program in addition to vowing to retaliate for Fakhrizadeh’s killing. Friday’s incident is also almost certainly going to fan the flames of Iran’s regional conflict with Israel which has been going on for years, particularly in Syria. Israel has carried out airstrikes against Iranian proxies in Syria as well as against Iran’s military directly. The latest killing of a nuclear scientist may lead to a dangerous escalation in that (relatively) covert conflict.

      • NDAA Seeks To Halt Trump's Troop Withdrawals From Afghanistan & Germany
        NDAA Seeks To Halt Trump's Troop Withdrawals From Afghanistan & Germany

        Tyler Durden

        Fri, 12/04/2020 – 23:00

        Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

        The version of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) agreed to by the House and Senate, known as the compromise version, includes provisions to block President Trump’s planned troop withdrawals in both Afghanistan and Germany.

        For Afghanistan, there is language in the bill that would block funding to reduce troop numbers in the country before the Pentagon, State Department, and the director of national intelligence assess how the drawdown would affect US security. The assessment would be required before troop numbers could drop lower than they are when the NDAA becomes law, and again if they drop below 2,000.

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        Via Zuma Press/Xinhua

        President Trump’s current plan is to bring troop numbers in Afghanistan down to 2,500 by January 15th. The US-Taliban peace deal signed in February paved the way for all US and other foreign forces to be out of the country by Spring 2021.

        Another troop drawdown President Trump’s Pentagon is planning is a reduction of forces in Germany from about 36,000 troops to 24,000. Congressional aides told The Hill that the compromise version of the NDAA includes language that would block the drawdown.

        “There is language that prevents reduction in the number of US forces stationed in Germany below 34,500 until 120 days after the secretary of Defense submits an assessment and planning regarding the implications for allies, costs, military families, deterrence and other key issues,” one of the aides said.

        The provisions to block Trump’s withdrawals could add to the controversy that is already surrounding the NDAA. On Tuesday, President Trump said he would veto the spending bill if it did not include an amendment to repeal Section 230 of the 1996 Communications Decency Act.

        Section 230 gives tech platforms immunity from liability for content published by third parties. Trump doubled down on his call to include the provision in a tweet on Thursday after some Republican senators voiced their objection to the idea.

      • Black Google Researcher Claims She Was Fired Because She Discovered AI Is Racist
        Black Google Researcher Claims She Was Fired Because She Discovered AI Is Racist

        Tyler Durden

        Fri, 12/04/2020 – 22:40

        A well-known artificial intelligence researcher at Google tweeted Wednesday that she was fired over an email expressing dismay with management over the censorship of new research. 

        Timnit Gebru, a technical co-lead of Google’s Ethical A.I. team, who researches algorithmic bias and data mining, has been an outspoken advocate for diversity in technology, claimed, in a series of tweets, she was fired for refusing to retract a research paper that outlines how A.I. discriminates against minorities and also due to a complaint in an email to colleagues. 

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        Expressing her frustrations in an email to an internal company group named Google Brain Women and Allies – Gebru criticized Google’s hiring of minorities and not doing enough to promote “responsible A.I.” 

        The email was shared by Platformer’s Casey Newton:  

        Hi friends,

        I had stopped writing here as you may know, after all the micro and macro aggressions and harassments I received after posting my stories here (and then of course it started being moderated).

        Recently however, I was contributing to a document that Katherine and Daphne were writing where they were dismayed by the fact that after all this talk, this org seems to have hired 14% or so women this year. Samy has hired 39% from what I understand but he has zero incentive to do this.

        What I want to say is stop writing your documents because it doesn’t make a difference. The DEI OKRs that we don’t know where they come from (and are never met anyways), the random discussions, the “we need more mentorship” rather than “we need to stop the toxic environments that hinder us from progressing” the constant fighting and education at your cost, they don’t matter. Because there is zero accountability. There is no incentive to hire 39% women: your life gets worse when you start advocating for underrepresented people, you start making the other leaders upset when they don’t want to give you good ratings during calibration. There is no way more documents or more conversations will achieve anything. We just had a Black research all hands with such an emotional show of exasperation. Do you know what happened since? Silencing in the most fundamental way possible.

        Have you ever heard of someone getting “feedback” on a paper through a privileged and confidential document to H.R.? Does that sound like a standard procedure to you or does it just happen to people like me who are constantly dehumanized?

        Imagine this: You’ve sent a paper for feedback to 30+ researchers, you’re awaiting feedback from P.R. & Policy who you gave a heads up before you even wrote the work saying “we’re thinking of doing this”, working on a revision plan figuring out how to address different feedback from people, haven’t heard from P.R. & Policy besides them asking you for updates (in 2 months). A week before you go out on vacation, you see a meeting pop up at 4:30pm PST on your calendar (this popped up at around 2pm). No one would tell you what the meeting was about in advance. Then in that meeting your manager’s manager tells you “it has been decided” that you need to retract this paper by next week, Nov. 27, the week when almost everyone would be out (and a date which has nothing to do with the conference process). You are not worth having any conversations about this, since you are not someone whose humanity (let alone expertise recognized by journalists, governments, scientists, civic organizations such as the electronic frontiers foundation etc) is acknowledged or valued in this company.

        Then, you ask for more information. What specific feedback exists? Who is it coming from? Why now? Why not before? Can you go back and forth with anyone? Can you understand what exactly is problematic and what can be changed?

        And you are told after a while, that your manager can read you a privileged and confidential document and you’re not supposed to even know who contributed to this document, who wrote this feedback, what process was followed or anything. You write a detailed document discussing whatever pieces of feedback you can find, asking for questions and clarifications, and it is completely ignored. And you’re met with, once again, an order to retract the paper with no engagement whatsoever.

        Then you try to engage in a conversation about how this is not acceptable and people start doing the opposite of any sort of self reflection—trying to find scapegoats to blame.

        Silencing marginalized voices like this is the opposite of the NAUWU principles which we discussed. And doing this in the context of “responsible A.I.” adds so much salt to the wounds. I understand that the only things that mean anything at Google are levels, I’ve seen how my expertise has been completely dismissed. But now there’s an additional layer saying any privileged person can decide that they don’t want your paper out with zero conversation. So you’re blocked from adding your voice to the research community—your work which you do on top of the other marginalization you face here.

        I’m always amazed at how people can continue to do thing after thing like this and then turn around and ask me for some sort of extra DEI work or input. This happened to me last year. I was in the middle of a potential lawsuit for which Kat Herller and I hired feminist lawyers who threatened to sue Google (which is when they backed off–before that Google lawyers were prepared to throw us under the bus and our leaders were following as instructed) and the next day I get some random “impact award.” Pure gaslighting.

        So if you would like to change things, I suggest focusing on leadership accountability and thinking through what types of pressures can also be applied from the outside. For instance, I believe that the Congressional Black Caucus is the entity that started forcing tech companies to report their diversity numbers. Writing more documents and saying things over and over again will tire you out but no one will listen.

        Timnit

        Gebru was apparently in talks with management over a possible resignation if certain conditions regarding her research paper were not met. She said those conditions, which by the way, were not stated in the public domain, were not met. The company did not give her a chance to respond with immediate termination. 

        “Apparently my manager’s manager sent an email my direct reports saying she accepted my resignation. I hadn’t resigned—I had asked for simple conditions first and said I would respond when I’m back from vacation. But I guess she decided for me 🙂 that’s the lawyer-speak,” she tweeted.

        https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

        She continued: “I said here are the conditions. If you can meet them great I’ll take my name off this paper, if not then I can work on a last date. Then she sent an email to my direct reports saying she has accepted my resignation. So that is google for you folks. You saw it happen right here.” 

        https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

        Here’s a quoted email response from Gebru’s manager about her termination: 

        “Thanks for making your conditions clear. We cannot agree to #1 and #2 as you are requesting. We respect your decision to leave Google as a result, and we are accepting your resignation.

        “However, we believe the end of your employment should happen faster than your email reflects because certain aspects of the email you sent last night to non-management employees in the brain group reflect behavior that is inconsistent with the expectations of a Google manager.

        “As a result, we are accepting your resignation immediately, effective today. We will send your final paycheck to your address in Workday. When you return from your vacation, PeopleOps will reach out to you to coordinate the return of Google devices and assets.”

        In another tweet, Gebru called out Google’s A.I. chief, Jeff Dean. She said Dean is likely the one who signed off on her firing. “He didn’t like my email to a mailing list for women & allies at brain,” she added.

        https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

        Gebru’s tweets about her termination came after the U.S. National Labor Relations Board filed a complaint against Google, accusing the company of violating labor laws. 

        The company was allegedly “interfering with, restraining, and coercing employees in the exercise of their rights guaranteed in Section 7 of the Act,” according to the complaint filed Tuesday. 

        Since Gebru’s termination, Google employees are standing in solidarity with the fired researcher due to “unprecedented research censorship,” read the website Google Walkout For Real Change.

        “We call on Google Research to strengthen its commitment to research integrity and to unequivocally commit to supporting research that honors the commitments made in Google’s A.I. Principles,” the website said. 

        This is just the latest incident showing Google is getting too powerful.

      • Chief Medical Officer Says Canadians Who Refuse Vaccine Won't Have "Freedom To Move Around"
        Chief Medical Officer Says Canadians Who Refuse Vaccine Won't Have "Freedom To Move Around"

        Tyler Durden

        Fri, 12/04/2020 – 22:20

        Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

        Ontario’s Chief Medical Officer says that those who refuse to take the COVID vaccine won’t have “freedom to move around” and will have to continue to wear masks.

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        Dr. David Williams was asked if he “would make some sort of mandatory vaccination recommendation.”

        Williams acknowledged that “we can’t force someone to take a vaccine,” but when on to explain how people who didn’t take it would have their freedom of mobility severely restricted.

        “What we can do is to say sometimes for access or ease of getting into certain settings, if you don’t have vaccination then you’re not allowed into that setting without other protection materials,” said Williams.

        https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

        “What may be mandatory is proof of…vaccination in order to have latitude and freedom to move around…without wearing other types of personal protective equipment,” he added.

        Williams also suggested that people would be prevented from entering certain settings without having been vaccinated if there was a “risk.”

        As we previously highlighted, governments do not have to make the vaccine mandatory, they can simply make life unlivable for people who refuse to take the vaccine.

        If bars, restaurants, cinemas, sports venues, airlines, employers and others all make the vaccination a mandatory condition of service, anyone who refuses to take it will be reduced to a personal form of de facto lockdown with their social lives and mobility completely stunted.

        *  *  *

        New limited edition merch now available! Click here. In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch. I need you to sign up for my free newsletter here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown. Also, I urgently need your financial support here.

      • Citi's Corbat Concerned Working-From-Home Could Harm 'Long-Term Productivity' As Bankers Pull 7-Day Weeks
        Citi's Corbat Concerned Working-From-Home Could Harm 'Long-Term Productivity' As Bankers Pull 7-Day Weeks

        Tyler Durden

        Fri, 12/04/2020 – 22:00

        As Wall Street deal flow continues to rage and top JPM executives inform M&A analysts that they won’t be getting much of a Christmas break, outgoing Citigroup CEO Michael Corbat has just become the second top banker to express doubts about the shift to working from home vs. the office – at least, as far as Wall Street is concerned.

        As bankers wonder what the future might hold as far as when they’ll be returning to the office for good (if they haven’t already), Bloomberg has published a wide-ranging interview with Corbat on Friday as he prepares to hand over the reins to Jane Fraser, set to become the first woman to ever lead an American megabank.

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        During the interview, Corbat addressed reports that WFH has – counterintuitively – led to a surge in productivity as the bank’s workers pull long hours and 7-day weeks. He added that productivity like this could come with serious long-term drawbacks.

        “People talk about the productivity that comes with working remotely,” Corbat said in a televised interview for a Bloomberg Invest Talks event that aired Friday. “Well, if I worked seven days a week, 15 to 16 hours a day and I don’t take any holidays, at least for a period of time I’m going to be more productive.”

        Although he’s concerned about the “hollowing out” of workers’ skill sets, Corbat says Citi should take its time to assess how WFH impacts productivity over the long term, arguing that a final decision about WFH policies shouldn’t be made in hast.

        “I don’t want to wake up as an industry and have hollowed out our skill sets,” Corbat said. “We’ll absolutely continue to accelerate the move toward digital and, where appropriate, more remote. But I certainly wouldn’t want to see us move too quickly.”

        While Citi “absolutely” prefers its workers in the office, Corbat insisted the bank wouldn’t ask workers to come in if there safety might be in jeopardy.

        “We absolutely like to have our people in when we can have them in, but we’re not going to put them at risk,” Corbat said. “We’ve got to stay flexible and obviously we’re going through a bit of resurgence in parts of the world right now. We’ve been in the phase of tapering back.”

        But if Corbat’s comments about the long hours Citi’s bankers are pulling at home, then that would suggest that the bank has stumbled on what could be a major productivity breakthrough: how to get all of its bankers to work 1st year analyst hours.

        https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

        If what Corbat says is true, maybe JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon should rethink his rejection of Work From Home. In actuality, it might afford his bank even more opportunities to cut costs – not only space, but head count – wringing out even greater profits.

      • "Texas Has A Lot Going For It" – Bay Area Residents Agree
        "Texas Has A Lot Going For It" – Bay Area Residents Agree

        Tyler Durden

        Fri, 12/04/2020 – 21:40

        Submitted by Market Crumbs,

        While California’s Silicon Valley is the epicenter of all things technology, companies based out of Texas played an important role in the rise of the personal computer as well.

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        Christopher Cantwell was even inspired to create the hit television series Halt and Catch Fire following his childhood in North Texas’s Silicon Prairie, where his father was employed as a software salesman in the 1980’s.

        Hewlett Packard Enterprise announced on Monday in its fourth quarter earnings release that it will be moving its headquarters from San Jose, California to Houston, Texas.

        “HPE’s largest U.S. employment hub, Houston is an attractive market to recruit and retain future diverse talent, and is where the company is currently constructing a state-of-the-art new campus,” HPE said. “The Bay Area will continue to be a strategic hub for HPE innovation, and the company will consolidate a number of sites in the Bay Area to its San Jose campus. No layoffs are associated with this move.”

        Texas Governor Greg Abbott thanked HPE for relocating to Houston while explaining why more than 10% of Fortune 500 companies are headquartered in the state.

        “Hewlett Packard Enterprise joins more than 50 Fortune 500 companies headquartered in the Lone Star State, including 22 in the Houston area alone,” Abbott said. “That is because Texas offers the best business climate in the nation. Our low taxes, high quality of life, top-notch workforce, and tier one universities create an environment where innovative companies like HPE can flourish.”

        HPE’s announcement comes as a number of technology founders and executives make the same move from California to Texas. Dropbox CEO Drew Houston, Splunk CEO Douglas Merritt and Palantir co-founder Joe Lonsdale are just a few of the high profile names reportedly set to make Austin their new permanent home.

        “Texas is a lot like going to California 40 to 50 years ago,” Lonsdale said. “It’s very welcoming, it’s a dynamic economy, it’s affordable. Texas has a lot going for it.”

        Even Elon Musk, who reportedly changed his driver’s license to a Texas license, has floated the idea of moving Tesla’s headquarters from Palo Alto to Texas. Tesla’s headquarters remains in California but the company announced in July it will build its next Gigafactory near Austin.

        “I guess a lot of people from California, if you ask them what’s the one place you would move outside of California, it’s Austin…,” Musk said. “I went to our team and said, ‘Where do you want to spend time? And where would you potentially move?’ And they were like, ‘Well, Austin is just the No. 1 choice.'”

        Data from moving company moveBuddha.com shows Texas is by far the most popular destination for those leaving the San Francisco Bay area. So far this year, 16% of outbound Bay Area residents moved to the state. That’s more than the combined total going to next two most popular states—Washington and New York, which accounted for 7.9% and 6.5% of the outbound total, respectively.

        Austin is attracting the bulk of the new Texas residents as 7% of outbound Bay Area residents are moving to the city. Two additional Texas cities made the list of the top 15 most popular destinations as Dallas and Houston ranked 8th and 12th, respectively.

        Their report shows Austin’s median value of owner occupied housing is $312,300 compared to $746,211 for all Bay Area counties. Their report shows Dallas’ and Houston’s median values stand at $169,400 and $161,300, respectively.

        Texas is cementing itself as the go-to destination for companies and individuals who want to escape the Bay Area for a lower cost of living and friendlier business climate.

      • Around The World In Two Hours? Chinese Scientists Test "Revolutionary" Hypersonic Engine
        Around The World In Two Hours? Chinese Scientists Test "Revolutionary" Hypersonic Engine

        Tyler Durden

        Fri, 12/04/2020 – 21:20

        Chinese scientists have built what they claim is a “revolutionary” hypersonic engine that could one day propel an airframe as fast as Mach 16, or about 12,300 mph, according to the South China Morning Post (SCMP), citing a new paper published in the Chinese Journal of Aeronautics. 

        The flight test of the hypersonic engine was conducted in a wind tunnel in Beijing suggested unprecedented thrust, fuel efficiency, and operational stability. Scientists believe the engine could operate at Mach 16, propelling an airframe across the world in just two hours. 

        The Chinese paper, titled “The criteria for airbreathing hypersonic propulsion and its experimental verification,” says the sodramjet (short for “standing oblique detonation ramjet engine”) is an “airbreathing propulsion” system “for future aerospace flight.” It has no moving parts and uses the plane’s speed to ram air into the engine, then blended with hydrogen fuel and detonated, discharging out of the back of the engine as thrust. 

        “The Sodramjet engine model is developed with several flow control techniques and tested successfully with the hypersonic flight-duplicated shock tunnel. The experimental data show that the Sodramjet engine model works steadily, and an oblique detonation can be made stationary in the engine combustor and is controllable. This research demonstrates the Sodramjet engine is a promising concept and can be operated stably with high thermal efficiency at hypersonic flow conditions,” the scientist wrote. 

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        Sodramjet uses the sonic boom as combustion: 

        “Turning the shock wave from their enemy to their friend helped them sustain and stabilize combustion at hypersonic speed,” SCMP said. “The faster the engine flew, the more efficiently the hydrogen fuel burned. The new engine was also much smaller and lighter than previous models.”

        Researchers noted, “the US government shifted the bulk of hypersonic research from Nasa to private companies such as Boeing and Lockheed Martin, and Morrison’s idea was largely if not completely forgotten by the American defense industry. The contractors put all their resources into scramjet design and continued to suffer setbacks that eventually caused them to trail other countries.”

        All commercial aircraft today have turbofans or turboprops. The introduction of hypersonic engines for commercial aircraft might not be seen until after 2030. 

        “With reusable trans-atmospheric planes, we can take off horizontally from an airport runway, accelerate into orbit around the Earth, then reenter into the atmosphere, and finally land at an airport,” the scientist wrote. “In this way, space access will become reliable, routine, and affordable.”

        A couple of years ago, China released a rendition of a hypersonic plane that could fly from Beijing to New York in 2 hours.

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        Could the sodramjet technology be used in this future plane?

      • San Francisco Bans Smoking Inside Apartments Unless It's Weed
        San Francisco Bans Smoking Inside Apartments Unless It's Weed

        Tyler Durden

        Fri, 12/04/2020 – 21:00

        Authored by John Vibes via TheMindUnleashed.com,

        San Francisco city officials have banned all tobacco smoking inside apartments, due to concerns about secondhand smoke, but cannabis smoke will be permitted under the new guidelines.

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        The proposal was originally drafted to include a ban on smoking cannabis as well, but the cannabis ban was later removed from the law after pushback from activists who pointed out that the only place they are legally permitted to smoke is in the privacy of their own homes, considering that it is illegal to smoke cannabis in public. If this law passed with the cannabis provision, it would have effectively made the substance illegal in the state all over again.

        “Unlike tobacco smokers who could still leave their apartments to step out to the curb or smoke in other permitted outdoor smoking areas, cannabis users would have no such legal alternatives,” Supervisor Rafael Mandelman, who wrote the amendment to exempt cannabis said, according to the Associated Press.

        On Tuesday, the Board of Supervisors for San Francisco voted 10-1 to approve the ordinance for the ban on smoking tobacco products inside of apartments. There are now 63 cities in the state of California with a ban on smoking inside apartments.

        Under the new law, the city’s Department of Public Health will first help to provide resources to help violators quit smoking, but repeat offenders could be fined up to $1,000 a day. Technically, the law does not allow tenants to be evicted for smoking violations, but a $1,000 fine would be enough to disrupt a poor person’s rent, which could get them legally evicted.

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        The mayor is expected to sign off on the ordinance next week, and the new law will go into effect 30 days after it is approved.

        The fact that tobacco products would be banned while cannabis would be allowed seems strange for many of us who grew up in an era where cigarettes were ubiquitous and cannabis was perceived as a dangerous and illegal drug that was thought to only be consumed by criminals, addicts and perhaps sometimes musicians. We now know that cannabis is actually far less dangerous than tobacco, and in the context of smoke in a shared living space, it also dissipates much quicker than cigarette smoke as well.

        Smoking is one of the leading causes of illness and death in the world. Carcinogenic, poisonous chemicals and toxic metals can all be found in modern tobacco products. These chemicals are present for many reasons ranging from taste and preservation to being purposely addictive.

        There are over 4000 of these chemicals in cigarettes and all of them are actually not even revealed to the public, they are protected under law as “trade secrets”. This means they can be putting anything they want in there without our knowledge.

        The global tobacco business is valued at over $849 billion and the World Health Organization estimates that cigarettes could kill 1 billion people in the 21st century if the current trend continues.

      • 'A Slap In My Face': LA Bar Owner Livid In After City Lets Hollywood Studio Set Up Dining Tents
        'A Slap In My Face': LA Bar Owner Livid In After City Lets Hollywood Studio Set Up Dining Tents

        Tyler Durden

        Fri, 12/04/2020 – 20:46

        A viral video is making the rounds which perfectly captures the anger, frustration and contempt people have for our elected officials, who flagrantly break their own COVID-19 rules when it suits them – and, as you’ll see, grant well-connected ‘elites’ privileges as regular Americans continue to be devastated by what seems like a two-tiered set of lockdown restrictions.

        In this latest example, the owner of the Pineapple Hill Grill & Saloon in Sherman Oaks, Angela M, offers heartbreaking commentary as she walks through her parking lot – revealing that while her own outdoor dining has been shut down due to heightened pandemic restrictions, a movie studio was granted permission to set up outdoor dining tents for a production.

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        “I walk into my parking lot, and obviously Mayor Garcetti has approved – this being set up for a movie company,” says Angela – who came to work to gather materials for a lockdown protest she’s organizing.

        “I’m losing everything,” she adds. “Everything I own is being taken away from me. And they set up a movie company right next to my outdoor patio.“

        People wonder why I am protesting and I have had enough. They have not given us money and they’ve shut us down. We cannot survive. The staff cannot survive. Look at this,” she says – gesturing to her patio. “Tell me that this is dangerous, but right next to me is a slap in my face.”

        “This is dangerous… We need your help. We need someone to do something about this,” she says in closing.

        Watch:

        https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsThe restaurant is sponsoring a Saturday protest in front of LA County Supervisor Sheila Kuehl’s house in Santa Monica.

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      • "Beyond Repair" – Sino-US Relations Badly Damaged, Warns China State Media 
        "Beyond Repair" – Sino-US Relations Badly Damaged, Warns China State Media 

        Tyler Durden

        Fri, 12/04/2020 – 20:40

        What caught our attention earlier this week was a tweet from Santiago Capital’s Brent Johnson, who described markets were reflating as if “globalization” was back on the menu, further “saying it’s not.” Johnson went on to say the world is moving “towards two supply chains, not one.” 

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        Johnson’s view of a fractured global economy that is deeply bruised at the moment was reiterated by Chinese state media Thursday, who said some damage from President Trump’s trade war is “beyond repair.” 

        Reuters, quoting an editorial via the government-backed China Daily, said it viewed “worrisome signs” Washington’s decision to limit visitor visas for members of the Chinese Communist Party and their families. 

        “Even if the incoming administration has any intention of easing the tensions that have been sown, and continue being sown, some damage is simply beyond repair, as the sitting U.S. president intends,” the paper added.

        Relations between the two countries are being shifted to “a dangerous path,” the editorial warned.

        Taking a look at the gross Sino-US trade flows, notice how the trade war resulted in a rapid drop in trade between both countries starting around 2H18. 

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        Earlier this year, UN Secretary‑General Antonio Guterres, speaking to the General Assembly in September, said the world must do everything to prevent a new Cold War.

        “We are headed in a very dangerous direction,” he said.

        The question that should be asked is that if China is transforming from a trade partner to an enemy of the US. 

        It’s still unclear whether a Biden presidency would bring a dramatic shift in trade policy between both countries. This week, Biden said he would not remove existing Chinese tariffs set by the Trump administration. 

      • Why I Mask
        Why I Mask

        Tyler Durden

        Fri, 12/04/2020 – 20:20

        Authored by Sam Younnokis via AmericanThinker.com,

        Masks are useless as well as uncomfortable.  I believe they actually increase the odds of the wearer coming down with a case of COVID infection.  They make it hard to have intelligible conversations and hide what few smiles people may still be having.  Yet I do mask.

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        Maybe I’m just a coward, afraid to stand against the overbearing government.  As noble and even important as such a stand would be, I value more my ability to be self-reliant.  In a modern world, in an urban environment such as the one in which I live, this is at best an illusion.  I’m not growing my own food or hauling water and firewood.  Maybe that’s practical and even essential if you have raw land that you’re homesteading.  It’s pretty much impossible for most city-dwellers.  There just isn’t enough land to support us, and there are many rules about what you can do with whatever space you have.

        Don’t suggest everybody move to the countryside.  That would just destroy the countryside.

        I live in an apartment.  I pay rent, buy food at stores, work in an office.  My self-reliance consists of paying the bills myself and doing the chores myself.  I know I’m no “mountain man.”  The local health department has required stores to demand that customers wear masks while shopping.  I don’t know how zealously the stores enforce the rules.  Perhaps their business licenses depend on a high level of compliance.  I wear the mask and try to limit myself to buying essentials only — no impulse purchases.  It doesn’t fight the edicts, but it limits the time I spend in the mask.

        My office also has rules requiring masks to be worn.  Without income, I don’t have even a semblance of self-reliance.  Would I starve to death before I’d shop in a mask?  Obviously not.  If you would, perhaps you will forgive me for not sharing your dedication.  Infringements on liberty start small and grow over time.  While this is not the hill I choose to die on, I acknowledge your right to make your own choice.

        Heroism is often associated with high risk of imminent death — charging into a burning building, for example, or standing in front of a tank that you know is not going to swerve.  There are “everyday heroes” (AKA people) who get up every morning and try to get through another day without a disaster.  There are so-called “heroes” (AKA “delivery drivers”) who bring things to our homes so we can remain in social as well as physical quarantine.  I don’t claim to be any sort of hero.

        I wear a mask because it’s required in order to maintain an acceptable level of life.  I expect that this is what residents of communist countries tell themselves as they submit to every new rule.  Thoreau said we have the worst government we are willing to endure, and he was right.  Many opinionators rail against the way government is behaving, but no one calls for violence.  Too soon?  Too late?  Or is it all just opinionators making money off claiming that the world is headed for communism?  Maybe it’s a problem they don’t really want solved, since then they would need to find a “real job.”

        My country is being destroyed, and I don’t see how to save it, but I still feel as though I should do something.  Perhaps in the end, the real reason I wear a mask is shame.

      • "There Will Absolutely Be A Black Market" For COVID Vaccines, Bioethicists Warn
        "There Will Absolutely Be A Black Market" For COVID Vaccines, Bioethicists Warn

        Tyler Durden

        Fri, 12/04/2020 – 20:00

        The American media has already established that the initial wave of COVID-19 vaccines will almost immediately lead to massive inequalities between wealthy and poor nations, as well as among the wealthy and the poor within each individual society.

        Given that Pfizer’s vaccine is not only in limited supply, but comparatively costly due to its stringent temperature requirements for shipment and storage, some have warned that it risks becoming a “vaccine for the rich”.

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        Now, bioethicists are saying that the likelihood that a ‘black market’ for the rich and famous emerging is a virtual guarantee. Because just like black-market human organs, the COVID-19 vaccines has “life-saving properties”.

        The worst attempts to nefariously procure a vaccine may come a few months into distribution, once vaccines are available that don’t require ultra-cold storage and local pharmacies and physician practices get allotments. “There absolutely will be a black market,” said bioethicist Arthur Caplan of New York University. “Anything that’s seen as lifesaving, life-preserving, and that’s in short supply creates black markets.”

        Concierge services for wealthy clients are already being inundated with questions about when COVID vaccines will be available (even though opinion polls show many have reservations about whether the approval process has been “rushed”).

        At WorldClinic, which charges members $10,000 to $250,000 a year for 24/7 care, no patients have asked for special treatment and the clinic would not undermine its integrity by trying to secure vaccines unethically, said Lang, who was a White House physician during both the Bush and Clinton administrations. “The optics of trying to jump the line would be so bad, they don’t want to do that.” But within the broader system, he added, some people will inevitably cut in line.

        In addition to ensuring that nurses and doctors get the vaccines, members of the ACIP, a federal panel responsible for writing the rules surrounding how to distribute the vaccines has pledged to ensure that only the real “essential” workers will be prioritized to ensure that “people of color, who are often the hardest hit by the virus, get early access.”

        Members of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), the federal panel recommending how to distribute the vaccines, want to prioritize essential workers to help ensure people of color, who are often the hardest hit by the virus, get early access. But the predominantly white workers in the financial services industry are also considered essential, according to guidance from the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, which was referenced by ACIP, as well as executive orders from several states including New York, Illinois, Colorado, and California. Public-facing bank tellers face contagion risks in their work, but aren’t the only financial services employees included. “It was left a little bit nebulous but basically covered people who oil the movement of money, so exchanges, trading floors, trading operations, and people who keep money moving at the retail [banking] level,” said Lang. “They’re defined very broadly in New York and Illinois, because that’s where so many of our financial services industries are based.”

        Whether that will happen remains to be seen. As STAT’s sources argue, it’s a difficult problem fraught with complications.

        Bioethicists warned that as soon as vaccines start getting doled out, there will be a rush of industries trying to claim that their workers are “essential” and deserve priority – much like we saw with the lockdowns.

        Already, financial services employees – a broadly defined category that includes everything from bank tellers to investment banking analysts – are raising eyebrows and hackles from some who feel they’ve been unfairly classified as “essential”.

        The potential of industry lobbyists “redefining what an essential worker is is a very strong possibility,” said Glenn Ellis, a visiting scholar at the National Center for Bioethics in Research and Health care at Tuskegee University and a narrative bioethics fellow at Harvard Medical School.

        Prioritizing essential workers is intended to give early vaccine access to those who provide a critical societal function and cannot socially distance easily, the Colorado health department said in a statement that acknowledged it can be difficult to write airtight rules. “Given the thousands of different job descriptions in the state, it is impossible to come up with a complete list for every occupation for a specific vaccine phase. Vaccine providers will need to use their best judgment about which patients may qualify for vaccination during this phase.” The California health department confirmed financial services employees, including those needed to “maintain orderly market operations,” will have early access to the vaccine as essential workers, as will people in the news media, such as reporters. State health departments in New York and Illinois did not respond to requests for comment about whether those in financial services would receive a vaccine early.

        On the flip side, it’s nice to see the medical establishment finally acknowledge the fact that, yes, the definition of what constitutes an “essential” worker is vague, fluid and hardly an inflexible concept. Beyond nurses, doctors, other medical workers, and grocery-store clerks, there’s a wide world of functions that are critical to keeping the economy humming without causing serious shortages of food or other resources (like, for example, toilet paper).

        Adding some balance to the piece, STAT adds that making the early ‘essential’ phases of vaccine distribution completely airtight comes with its own risks. Because if government agencies get too involved checking and double-checking everything, the bureaucracy would likely slow down the process.

        At a certain point, though, vigilance brings its own risks. “If you add too many inefficiencies of checking and double-checking everyone, then you put so much bureaucracy into the program, you slow things down,” he added.

        Plus, with the college admissions scandal still fresh in everyone’s mind, people in positions of power are presently hyper-aware of the risks of being caught and called out, and what it could mean for their livelihoods. That, one bioethicist said, will probably act as an effective check on abuse – at least to a degree.

        The public shame of being caught should act as a deterrent, especially if the backlash is akin to what several Hollywood celebrities and wealthy parents faced following the 2019 college admissions bribing and cheating scandal, said Bateman-House. “I can promise you, no CEO wants to be on the front page of the newspaper for giving preferential access to his college roommate,” she said. “I think a few public naming and shamings would probably tamp down some activity.”

        The piece ends with STAT’s sources claiming that the decision to supply experimental treatments to President Trump and other politicians  (Ben Carson, Chris Christie) could hurt public faith in the process by creating the impression that insiders are cutting the line. 

        While bioethicists are at it, we would love to hear their take on the ethics of governments issuing COVID-19 ‘vaccine passports’ or vaccine ID cards.

        In the end, to create a truly effective deterrent, the public must send a message to the rich and powerful that special treatment simply won’t be tolerated.

        Following the vaccine rollout, the response to the wealthy and powerful cutting the line needs to be different and fierce, he said. “Everybody has to condemn them: the media, your neighbor, your boss, everybody.”

        But what if all those people are the same ones who are cutting the line?

      • These Are The Hypocritical Government Officials Who Demand You Stay Home While They Party
        These Are The Hypocritical Government Officials Who Demand You Stay Home While They Party

        Tyler Durden

        Fri, 12/04/2020 – 19:40

        Authored by Daisy Luther via The Organic Prepper blog,

        Little is more annoying than seeing a wealthy government official solemnly telling you to stay home, forgo time with your family, and stop working while losing tons of money in missed wages.

        Well, except for one thing. It’s more annoying when that government official is telling you to hunker down while they’re out partying in one luxurious location or another. I’d say that is far more annoying to watch those people tell us, “Do as I say, not as I do.”

        It reminds me of The Hunger Games, in which people at the Capitol enjoy frivolous pastimes while the peons in the other Districts must spend their days doing menial jobs to provide for the wealthy, lest they be beaten or killed by “Peacekeepers.”

        Here are some particularly egregious examples of hypocritical government officials who want you to sacrifice while they celebrate. The list is by no means comprehensive.

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        California Governor Gavin Newsom

        Probably the most prominent example of a “leader” abandoning any pretense of following his rules is California Governor Gavin Newsom, who was spotted dining at a fancy restaurant – like $325 per person fancy – at a birthday party for a lobbyist.

        California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) was photographed attending a dinner party at the French Laundry, one of the nation’s priciest restaurants, with a group of prominent lobbyists, including several who represent the California Medical Association. The photos show no one in the large party wearing a mask.

        Newsom apologized a few days later.

        “I want to apologize to you because I need to preach and practice, not just preach and not practice, and I’ve done my best to do that,” Newsom said. (source)

        Oh and also, his kids can go to school in person at their fancy private school, while everyone else’s kids are stuck with “distance learning.”

        Newsom is self-quarantining after a student at one of his children’s schools tested positive for the coronavirus — another sore spot for critics who are frustrated that most California students are not learning in person.

        “His kids can learn in person. But yours can’t. He can celebrate birthday parties. But you can’t,” San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer (R), a potential Newsom rival in 2022, wrote on Twitter. (source)

        San Francisco Mayor London Breed

        Incidentally, the following night after Newsom got busted at French Laundry, San Francisco Mayor London Breed was caught at a birthday dinner there with 7 other people – right before she closed down dining in every restaurant in San Francisco.

        “I cannot emphasize enough how important it is that everyone act responsibly to reduce the spread of the virus,” Breed said in a statement Nov. 10. “Every San Franciscan needs to do their part so that we can start moving in the right direction again.”(source)

        Austin Mayor Steve Adler

        Steve Adler, the mayor of Austin, Texas, has been busted twice flouting his own restrictions. First, he hosted 20 people at a wedding and reception for his daughter at a downtown Austin hotel. The very next day, he took 7 other people in a private jet to his timeshare in Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. The thing that makes this so richly ironic is that he addressed the people of Austin from Cabo on a Facebook video in which he said:

        We need to stay home if you can. This is not the time to relax. We are going to be looking really closely. … We may have to close things down if we are not careful.” (source)

        Adler maintains that neither the wedding nor the vacay broke his orders or those of the state’s governor.

        However, the city recommended that people not gather in groups larger than 10 people, and also Adler himself asked people not to travel for Thanksgiving, saying,

        “Everyday since March, I repeat that being home is the safest place for people to be,” Adler said in a statement Wednesday. “Only at our most trying moments, like around Thanksgiving, have I asked people not to travel as part of extra precautions. It is safest to stay home. However, we aren’t asking people to never venture out. We ask everyone to be as safe as possible when they do.” (source)

        New York Governor Andrew Cuomo

        Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York was forced to change his plans after he announced on the radio, for Pete’s sake, that he was having his adult daughters and his 89-year-old mother visit his home in Albany for Thanksgiving. Cuomo:

        …went on WAMC radio and told of his own Thanksgiving plans, for all to hear, as CNN noted: “My mom is going to come up and two of my girls, is the current plan. But the plans change. I have a lot of work to do between now and Thanksgiving.”

        And then in this same interview, Cuomo scolded New Yorkers again to stay home and to stay in groups of fewer than 10. (source)

        Meanwhile, he was telling other New Yorkers to skip Thanksgiving.

        “My personal advice is, you don’t have family gatherings – even for Thanksgiving,” the governor said as he listed off a number of smaller gatherings that have led to recent outbreaks across the state.

        “My personal advice is the best way to say ‘I love you,’ this Thanksgiving, the best way to say ‘I’m thankful for you,’ is to say, ‘I love you so much, I’m so thankful for you, that I don’t want to endanger you, and I don’t want to endanger our family and I don’t want to endanger our friends. So we’ll celebrate virtually,’” he added.  (source)

        New Yorkers got the Emmy Award-winning governor’s mixed message loud and clear.

        Washington D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser

        Mayor Muriel E. Bowser of Washington, DC ignored travel restrictions to go to Joe Biden’s victory party in Delaware, and then changed the rules for a mandatory 14-day quarantine established for peons upon her return. The Washington Post reports:

        The trip, which comes as the mayor attempts to discourage interstate travel because of the pandemic, prompted questions from reporters and derision on social media from some residents and Bowser critics.

        Bowser (D) said that she was “very proud” to attend the celebration in Wilmington and that the trip “absolutely” qualified as “essential travel” — which is exempted from the mayor’s quarantine order — because she was conducting government business on the road.

        “I do a lot of things to advance the interests of the District of Columbia. Some of them are formal and some of them are informal, but all of them are necessary,” she said…

        …Until last week, Bowser’s mayoral order on interstate travel would have required anyone who visited Delaware (and other states with more than 10 new daily coronavirus cases on average per 100,000 residents) to quarantine at home for two weeks upon returning to the District, except those whose travel was for essential purposes.

        Last week, however, Bowser replaced that order with a new one that went into effect Monday, after her trip. The new order got rid of the two-week, post-vacation quarantine that she had instituted in July. In its place, she ordered that people who wish to visit the District from high-risk states get a negative coronavirus test first (though the city will not check or enforce that requirement); residents who travel should quarantine at home — except for essential activities — until they get a negative test, generally at least three days after their trip. (source)

        It’s certainly convenient to be able to rewrite the rules at your own convenience.

        Denver Mayor Michael Hancock

        Mayor Michael Hancock of Denver, Colorado tweeted a reminder for people to “Pass the potatoes, not COVID… Stay home as much as you can, especially if you’re sick… Host virtual gatherings instead of in-person dinners. Avoid travel, if you can.”

        He tweeted that minutes before boarding a plane to spend Thanksgiving with his own family members.

        Hancock then flew off to Houston, with a connecting flight to Meridian, Mississippi. His wife, Mary Louise Lee, was already there and they would be joining their 22-year-old daughter, Janae Hancock, for Thanksgiving…

        …Apart from the outrageous timing, Hancock’s hypocrisy becomes particularly egregious when you consider a Nov. 20 letter his office received from a Colorado county public health official warning that Denver International Airport (DIA) constitutes a serious COVID-19 hazard…

        …Despite the warning, Hancock headed for the airport on Thursday and passed through the Thanksgiving crowds, tweeting a warning about COVID-19. He told his constituents to stay home and then boarded a plane, undermining critical warnings while placing others at risk, by example and directly in person. He also stood a chance of passing along COVID with the potatoes to his wife and daughter. (source)

        It’s notable that in early November, Mayor Hancock humble-bragged that he wouldn’t be hosting his usual Thanksgiving dinner for 60 people at his home.  Instead, he opted to fly across the country during a pandemic while telling everyone else to cancel their plans.

        Members of the California Legislature

        Several members of the California legislature enjoyed a trip to Hawaii to attend a conference.

        Those attending include Republican Assembly members Heath Flora of Ripon and Jordan Cunningham of Paso Robles, Republican Sen. Andreas Borgeas of Modesto, Democratic Sen. Bill Dodd of Napa, Democratic Assembly members Blanca Rubio of Baldwin Park, Mike Gipson of Carson, Jose Medina of Riverside and Wendy Carrillo of Los Angeles, as well as Chad Mayes of Rancho Mirage, who won reelection this month as unaffiliated with any political party. (source)

        They rubbed elbows with lobbyists and special interest groups while in Hawaii. The Los Angeles Times reports:

        More than half a dozen California lawmakers are among the 50 people attending a policy conference sponsored by the Independent Voter Project, a nonprofit group, at the Fairmont Kea Lani Hotel in Wailea, with some legislators’ travel expenses picked up by the hosts. The four-day conference, at which panel participants discuss various issues including how to reopen states safely amid COVID-19, began Monday.

        The annual gathering, which has seen up to 25 California lawmakers in attendance in past years, has faced criticism because it is partly financed and attended by special interests, including businesses and labor groups, that lobby legislators. (source)

        Ironically, the conference began on the same day California reinstituted its strict “purple level” restrictions for citizens of the state that aren’t legislators or governors.

        And that’s not all.

        These are but a sprinkling of the hypocritical actions of those who claim to be leaders but are showing themselves to be more along the lines of pampered despots.

        Don’t forget about Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s infamous haircut, Chris Cuomo wandering around without a mask, Senator Diane Feinstein wandering around without a mask at both the Capitol building and Dulles International Airport, the mayor of San Jose dining with members of five other households, Dr. Fauci attending a baseball game with 2 guests and his mask pulled down in an otherwise empty stadium, and the “fact” that it’s okay to “protest” but not to go to church.

        It’s certainly no way to get people on board with dystopian restrictions. The fact that these so-called leaders throw caution to the wind when it comes to the rules the rest of us are expected to follow certainly lends credence to those questioning whether the government is overstepping when it’s unnecessary.

      • GOP Raises 400% More Than Democrats For Georgia Runoff
        GOP Raises 400% More Than Democrats For Georgia Runoff

        Tyler Durden

        Fri, 12/04/2020 – 19:20

        Despite calls by Trump supporters for Republicans to withhold votes for Georgia GOP candidates in January’s runoff election, GOP donors have been showing up big for the candidates, despite their refusal to back the president’s claims of widespread election fraud.

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        According to Bloomberg, GOP donors contributed $95 million to their party’s Senate super-pac and party election committee between election day and Nov. 23  – over four times the $18 million Democrats contributed to similar groups over the same period. Granted, that time frame excludes much of the fervor over election fraud, or the fact that Sens. Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue are essentially never-Trump Republicans.

        Their Democratic opponents, Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock have a much higher volume of donations – albeit in far smaller amounts contributed mostly online.

        Thanks to the massive contributions, the Georgia GOP has been able to ramp up expensive advertising – with the GOP candidates having booked $161.6 million in airtime vs. $118.3 million for Democrats, which came primarily from out of state.

        Both parties are laser focused on the Georgia runoffs because the outcome will determine who controls the upper chamber. If Democrats manage to unseat both incumbents, the Senate would be split 50-50. Democrats will be able to set the agenda because Vice President-elect Kamala Harris would be able to break any ties.

        And big money Republicans are stepping up for the fight. The Senate Leadership Fund, a super-PAC that has ties to Majority Leader Mitch  McConnell, raised $104.2 million between Oct. 15 and Nov. 23, with $71.1 million of that amount donated after the Nov. 3 general election. -Bloomberg

        GOP donors include Blackstone Groujp co-founder Stephen Schwarzman, who gave $15 million on Nov. 12, as well as Citadel co-founder Kenneth Griffin, who put $10 million towards the race the same day. Adding to the list of megadonors who contributed after election day are investor Timothy Mellon, Steve Wynn – who each gave $5 million. In the $1 million club are Home Depot co-founder Bernard Marcus, TD Ameritrade founder Joe Ricketts, and real estate developer Geoffrey Palmer.

        Meanwhile, the National GOP Senatorial Committee has raised $23.9 million since Nov. 3, which include contributions from Senate Republicans’ own campaigns. A super-PAC with ties to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell raised $104.2 million between Oct. 15 and Nov. 12 – of which $71.1 million was contributed after the election.

        WinRed’s data suggests that online donations to the two Republicans lag behind the Democrats. Using the platform, Republican donors contributed $28.6 million to Perdue and $27 million to Loeffler. Loeffler had largely self-financed her campaign before Oct. 15, loaning it $23 million while raising just $5 million.

        The national interest in the races is reflected in the grassroots giving. Of nearly $114 million raised by the two Democrats through ActBlue, 96% comes from donors outside of Georgia. For the Republican candidates, 92% of their $56 million through WinRed is from out-of-state contributions. -Bloomberg

        On the Democratic side, their Senate Majority PAC has raised $89.9 million between Oct. 15 and Nov. 12, however just $10.2 million of that came after Election Day. Big donors who contributed before the election include Renaissance Technologies founder James Simons, Eric Mindich of Eton Park Capital Management, and Bain Capital co-chairman Joshua Bekenstein – while Netflix CEO Reed Hastings. Carlyle Group co-founder co-founder William Conway donated $250,000.

      • "It Was No Longer Safe For Me To Live In China": Former Chinese Communist Party Insider Breaks With Beijing
        "It Was No Longer Safe For Me To Live In China": Former Chinese Communist Party Insider Breaks With Beijing

        Tyler Durden

        Fri, 12/04/2020 – 19:00

        By Cai Xia, a Professor at the Central Party School of the Chinese Communist Party from 1998 to 2012. This essay was translated from the Chinese by Stacy Mosher (Read in Chinese here).

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        When Xi Jinping came to power in 2012, I was full of hope for China. As a professor at the prestigious school that educates top leaders in the Chinese Communist Party, I knew enough about history to conclude that it was past time for China to open up its political system. After a decade of stagnation, the CCP needed reform more than ever, and Xi, who had hinted at his proclivity for change, seemed like the man to lead it.

        By then, I was midway through a decades-long process of grappling with China’s official ideology, even as I was responsible for indoctrinating officials in it. Once a fervent Marxist, I had parted ways with Marxism and increasingly looked to Western thought for answers to China’s problems. Once a proud defender of official policy, I had begun to make the case for liberalization. Once a loyal member of the CCP, I was secretly harboring doubts about the sincerity of its beliefs and its concern for the Chinese people.

        So I should not have been surprised when it turned out that Xi was no reformer. Over the course of his tenure, the regime has degenerated further into a political oligarchy bent on holding on to power through brutality and ruthlessness. It has grown even more repressive and dictatorial. A personality cult now surrounds Xi, who has tightened the party’s grip on ideology and eliminated what little space there was for political speech and civil society. People who haven’t lived in mainland China for the past eight years can hardly understand how brutal the regime has become, how many quiet tragedies it has authored. After speaking out against the system, I learned it was no longer safe for me to live in China.

        THE EDUCATION OF A COMMUNIST

        I was born into a Communist military family. In 1928, at the beginning of the Chinese Civil War, my maternal grandfather joined a peasant uprising led by Mao Zedong. When the Communists and the Nationalists put hostilities on hold during World War II, my parents and much of my mother’s family fought against the Japanese invaders in armies led by the CCP.

        After the Communists’ victory, in 1949, life was good for a revolutionary family such as ours. My father commanded a People’s Liberation Army unit near Nanjing, and my mother ran an office in that city’s government. My parents forbade my two sisters and me from taking advantage of the privileges of their offices, lest we become “spoiled bourgeois ladies.” We could not ride in our father’s official car, and his security guards never ran family errands. Still, I benefited from my parents’ status and never suffered the privations that so many Chinese did in the Mao years. I knew nothing of the tens of millions of people who starved to death during the Great Leap Forward.

        All I could see was socialism’s bright future. My family’s bookshelves were stocked with Marxist titles such as The Selected Works of Stalin and Required Reading for Cadres. As a teenager, I turned to these books for extracurricular reading. Whenever I opened them, I was filled with reverence. Even though I could not grasp the complexity of their arguments, my mission was clear: I must love the motherland, inherit my parents’ revolutionary legacy, and build a communist society free of exploitation. I was a true believer.

        I gained a more sophisticated understanding of communist thought after joining the People’s Liberation Army in 1969, at age 17. With the Cultural Revolution in full swing, Mao required everyone to read six works by Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels, including The Communist Manifesto. One utopian passage from that book left a lasting impression on me: “In place of the old bourgeois society, with its classes and class antagonisms, we shall have an association, in which the free development of each is the condition for the free development of all.” Although I didn’t really understand the concept of freedom at that point, those words stuck in my head.

        The People’s Liberation Army assigned me to a military medical school. My job was to manage its library, which happened to carry Chinese translations of “reactionary” works, mostly Western literature and political philosophy. Distinguished by their gray covers, these books were restricted to regime insiders for the purpose of familiarizing themselves with China’s ideological opponents, but in secret, I read them, too. I was most impressed by The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich, by the American journalist William Shirer, and a collection of Soviet fiction. There was a world of ideas outside of the Marxist classics, I realized. But I still believed that Marxism was the only truth.

        I left the military in 1978 and got a job in the party-run trade union of a state-owned fertilizer factory on the outskirts of the city of Suzhou. By then, Mao was dead and the Cultural Revolution was over. His successor, Deng Xiaoping, was ushering in a period of reform and opening, and as part of this effort, he was recruiting a new generation of reform-minded cadres who could run the party in the future. Each local party organization had to choose a few members to serve in this group, and the Suzhou party organization picked me. I was sent to a two-year program at the Suzhou Municipal Party School, where my fellow students and I studied Marxist theory and the history of the CCP. We also received some training in the Chinese classics, a subject we had missed on account of the disruption of education during the Cultural Revolution.

        I plowed through Das Kapital twice and learned the ins and outs of Marxist theory. What appealed to me most were Marx’s ideas about labor and value—namely, that capitalists accrue wealth by taking advantage of workers. I was also impressed by Marx’s philosophical approach, dialectical materialism, which allowed him to see capitalism’s political, legal, cultural, and moral systems as built on a foundation of economic exploitation.

        When I graduated, in 1986, I was invited to stay on as a faculty member at the school, which was short-staffed at the time. I accepted, which disappointed some of the city’s leaders, who thought I had a promising future as a party apparatchik. Instead, my new job launched my career as an academic in the CCP’s system of ideological indoctrination.

        THE STUDENT BECOMES THE MASTER

        At the top of that system sits the Central Party School in Beijing. Since 1933, it has trained generations of top-ranking CCP cadres, who run the Chinese bureaucracy at the municipal level and above. The school has close ties to the party elite and is always headed by a member of the Politburo. (Its president from 2007 to 2012 was none other than Xi.)

        In June 1989, the government cracked down on pro-democracy protesters in Tiananmen Square, killing hundreds. Privately, I was appalled that the People’s Liberation Army had fired on college students, which ran contrary to the indoctrination I had received since my childhood that the army protected the people; only Japanese “devils” and Nationalist reactionaries killed them. Alarmed by the protests, plus the fall of communism in Eastern Europe, the CCP’s top leadership decided it had to counteract ideological laxity. It ordered local party schools to send some of their teachers to the Central Party School to brush up on the party’s thinking. My school in Suzhou chose me. My brief stay at the Central Party School made me want to study there for much longer. After spending a year preparing for the entrance examinations, I was admitted to the master’s program in the school’s theory department. So devoted was I to the CCP’s line that behind my back, my classmates called me “Old Mrs. Marx.” In 1998, I received my Ph.D. and joined the school’s faculty.

        Some of my students were regular graduate students, who were taught a conventional curriculum in Marxist political theory and CCP history. But others were mid- and high-level party officials, including leading provincial and municipal administrators and cabinet-level ministers. Some of my students were members of the CCP’s Central Committee, the body of a few hundred delegates that sits atop the party hierarchy and ratifies major decisions.

        Teaching at the Central Party School was not easy. Video cameras in the classrooms recorded our lectures, which were then reviewed by our supervisors. We had to make the subject come alive for the high-level and experienced students in the class, without interpreting the doctrine too flexibly or drawing attention to its weak spots. Often, we had to come up with smart answers to tough questions asked by the officials in our classes.

        Most of their questions revolved around puzzling contradictions within the official ideology, which had been crafted to justify the real-world policies implemented by the CCP. Amendments added in 2004 to China’s constitution said that the government protects human rights and private property. But what about Marx’s view that a communist system should abolish private property? Deng wanted to “let a part of the population get rich first” to motivate people and stimulate productivity. How did that square with Marx’s promise that communism would provide to each according to his needs?

        I remained loyal to the CCP, yet I was constantly questioning my own beliefs. In the 1980s, Chinese academic circles had engaged in a lively discussion of “Marxist humanism,” a strain of Marxist thinking that emphasized the full development of the human personality. A few academics continued that discussion into the 1990s, even as the scope of acceptable discourse narrowed. I studied Marx’s Economic and Philosophic Manuscripts of 1844, which said that the purpose of socialism was to liberate the individual. I identified with the Marxist philosophers who stressed freedom—above all, Antonio Gramsci and Herbert Marcuse.

        Already in my master’s thesis, I had criticized the idea that people should always sacrifice their individual interests in order to serve the party. In my Ph.D. dissertation, I had challenged the ancient Chinese slogan “rich country, strong army” by contending that China would be strong only if the party allowed its citizens to prosper. Now, I took this argument a step further. In papers and talks, I suggested that state enterprises were still too dominant in the Chinese economy and that further reform was needed to allow private companies to compete. Corruption, I stressed, should be seen not as a moral failing of individual cadres but as a systemic problem resulting from the government’s grip on the economy.

        THEORY AND PRACTICE

        My thinking happened to align in part with that of Deng’s successor, Jiang Zemin. Determined to develop China’s economy, Jiang sought to stimulate private enterprise and bring China into the World Trade Organization. But these policies contradicted the CCP’s long-held theories prizing the planned economy and national self-sufficiency. Since the ideology of neither Marx nor Mao nor Deng could resolve these contradictions, Jiang felt compelled to come up with something new. He called it “the Three Represents.”

        I first heard of this new theory when everyone else did. On the evening of February 25, 2000, I watched as China Central Television (CCTV) broadcast a report on the Three Represents. The party, Jiang said, had to represent three aspects of China: “the development requirements of advanced productive forces,” cultural progress, and the interests of the majority. As a professor at the Central Party School, I immediately understood that this theory presaged a significant shift in CCP ideology. In particular, the first of the Three Represents implied that Jiang was abandoning the core Marxist belief that capitalists were an exploitative social group. Instead, Jiang was opening the party to their ranks—a decision I welcomed.

        The Central Propaganda Department, the body in charge of the CCP’s ideological work, was responsible for promoting Jiang’s new theory, but they had a problem: the Three Represents had come under attack from the extreme left, which thought Jiang was going too far in wooing entrepreneurs. Hoping to skirt this dispute, the Propaganda Department chose to water down the theory. The People’s Daily published a full-page article demonstrating the correctness of the Three Represents with cross-references to texts by Marx, Engels, Lenin, Stalin, Mao, and Deng.

        I found this unconvincing. What was the purpose of the Three Represents if it merely restated existing ideology? I was disgusted by the superficial methods of the party’s publicity apparatus. I grew determined to reveal the true meaning of the Three Represents, a theory that in fact marked a bold departure for China. This, it turned out, would bring me into conflict with the entrenched bureaucracy of the CCP.

        THE UNLEARNED ELITES

        My opportunity to promote a proper understanding of the Three Represents arrived in early 2001, when CCTV, hearing from a colleague that I was especially interested in Jiang’s new theory, invited me to write a television program on it. I spent six months researching and writing the documentary and discussing it at length with producers at the network. My script emphasized the need for innovative new policies to meet the challenges of a new era. I stressed the same things Jiang did: that the government was now going to reduce its intervention in the economy and that the role of the party was no longer to make violent revolution against the exploitative capitalists—instead, it was to encourage the creation of wealth and balance the interests of different groups in society.

        On the afternoon of June 16, four CCTV senior vice presidents gathered in a studio in the network’s headquarters to review the three 30-minute episodes. As they watched it, their faces darkened. “Let’s stop here,” one of them said when the first episode ended.

        “Professor Cai, do you know why you were invited to produce a program on the Three Represents?” he asked.

        “The party has put forward a new ideological theory,” I replied, “and we need to publicize it.”

        The official was unmoved. “Your research and innovation can be presented at the Central Party School, but only the safest things can be shown on TV,” he said. At that point, nobody was quite sure what the Three Represents would ultimately be interpreted to mean, and he worried that my script might be out of step with the Propaganda Department’s views. “If there’s any discrepancy, the impact would be too great.”

        Another station administrator chimed in. “This year is the 80th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party!” he exclaimed. Such an anniversary demanded not a discussion of challenges facing the party but a heroic celebration of its triumphs. At that moment, I understood. The CCTV people weren’t interested in the real implications of ideology. They just wanted to make the party look good and flatter their superiors.

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        The Central Party School in Beijing, June 2019; Ben Blanchard / Reuters

        Over the next ten days, we scrambled to remake the documentary. We edited out potentially offensive words and phrases, working day and night as my script went through several political reviews by teams from across the party bureaucracy. Finally, a dozen officials arrived for one last review, during which I learned even more about the party’s hypocrisy. At one point, a high-level member of the vetting committee spoke up. In the program’s second episode, I had quoted two of Deng’s famous sayings, which are often strung together: “Poverty is not socialism; development is the hard truth.”

        “Poverty isn’t socialism?” the official asked dubiously. “So what is socialism?” His critique went on, growing louder. “And development is the hard truth? How are those two sentences related? Tell me!”

        I was dumbfounded. These were Deng’s exact words, and this senior official—the head of the State Administration of Radio, Film, and Television, the powerful agency overseeing all broadcast media—didn’t know it? I thought immediately of Mao’s criticism of bureaucrats during the Cultural Revolution: “They don’t read books, and they don’t read newspapers.”

        AN EMPTY IDEOLOGY

        Over the course of 2001, as part of its efforts to promote Jiang’s signature theory, the Propaganda Department began work on a study outline for the Three Represents, a summary that would be issued as a Central Committee document for the entire party to read and implement. Perhaps because I had worked on the CCTV program and had given a speech on the Three Represents at an academic conference, I was asked to help.

        Along with another scholar and 18 propaganda officials, I was sent to the Propaganda Department’s training center near the foothills west of Beijing. The department had settled on a general framework for the outline, and now it was asking us to fill the framework with content. My task was to write the section on building the party.

        Drafting documents for the Central Committee is a highly confidential process. My colleagues and I were forbidden from leaving the premises or receiving guests. When the Propaganda Department convened a meeting, those who weren’t invited weren’t allowed to ask about it. We writers could eat and take walks together, but we were prohibited from discussing our work. I was the only woman in the group. At dinner, the men gossiped and cracked jokes. I found the off-color, alcohol-fueled conversation vulgar and would always slink out after a few bites of food. Finally, another participant took me aside. Talk of official business would only get us in trouble, he explained; it was safer and more enjoyable to confine the conversation to sex.

        Helping with the study outline was the most important writing assignment of my life, but it was also the most ridiculous. My job was to read through a stack of documents cataloging Jiang’s thoughts, including confidential speeches and articles intended for the party’s internal consumption. I would then extract relevant quotations and place them under various topic subheadings, annotating the source. I couldn’t add or subtract text, but I could change a period to a comma and connect one quote to another. I was amazed that the formal explanation of one of the party’s most important ideological campaigns in the post-Mao era would be little more than a cut-and-paste job.

        Because the task was so easy, I spent a lot of time waiting in boredom for my work to be vetted. One day, I sounded out another participant, a professor from Renmin University of China. “Aren’t we just creating another version of Quotations From Chairman Mao?” I asked, referring to the Little Red Book, a pocket volume of out-of-context aphorisms that circulated during the Cultural Revolution. He looked around and smiled wryly. “Don’t worry about it,” he told me. “We’re in a lovely scenic location with good food and pleasant walks. Where else could we convalesce so comfortably? Just go fetch a book to read. All that matters is that you’re here when they call you for a meeting.”

        In June 2003, a high-profile press conference was held at the Great Hall of the People, in Beijing, to unveil the study outline, and all of us who had helped write it were told to attend. Liu Yunshan, a Politburo member and the head of the Propaganda Department, presented the report. As he and other officials took to the stage, I felt a sinking feeling. My understanding of the Three Represents as an important pivot in the ruling party’s ideology had been completely squeezed out of the document and replaced with pablum. Remembering the lewd chatter around the dinner table every night, I felt for the first time that the system I had long considered sacred was in fact unbearably absurd.

        IDEAS FOR SALE

        My experience with the study outline taught me that the ideas the party sanctimoniously promoted were in fact self-serving tools used to deceive the Chinese people. I soon learned that they were also a way of making money. An official I came to know at the General Administration of Press and Publication, which controls the right to publish books and magazines, told me of a disturbing episode involving a turf war over publishing revenues within the CCP.

        For many years, Red Flag Press had been one of three organizations responsible for publishing the party’s educational books. In 2005, the press was in the process of publishing a routine book of readings when an official from the Central Organization Department, the powerful agency in charge of the CCP’s personnel decisions, stepped in to insist that only his department had the authority to publish such a book. He tried to get the General Administration of Press and Publication to prevent the book from being published. But Red Flag Press’s main job was precisely to publish works on ideology. To get out of this fix, the agency vetted the book in the hopes of finding problems that would justify banning it—but awkwardly, it came up empty.

        Why was the Organization Department so territorial about publishing? It all came down to money. Many departments have slush funds, which are used for the lavish enjoyment of senior officials and divided among personnel as “welfare subsidies.” The easiest way to replenish those funds is to publish books. At that time, the CCP had more than 3.6 million grassroots organizations, each of which was expected to buy a copy of a new publication. If the book was priced at ten yuan per copy, that meant a minimum of 36 million yuan in sales revenue—equivalent to more than $5 million today. Since that money was coming from the budgets of the party branches, the scheme was essentially an exercise in forcing one public entity to transfer money to another. No wonder the Organization Department promoted a new political education topic every year. And no wonder almost every institution within the CCP had a publishing arm. With nearly every unit inventing new ways to make money, venality has permeated the regime.

        Despite my growing disillusionment, I didn’t completely reject the party. Along with many other scholars inside it, I still hoped that the CCP could embrace reform and move in the direction of some form of democracy. In the later years of the Jiang era, the party started tolerating a relatively relaxed discussion of sensitive issues within the party, as long as the discussions never went public. At the Central Party School, my fellow professors and I felt free to raise deep-seated problems with China’s political system among ourselves. We talked about reducing the role of party officials in deciding administrative issues that were best handled by government officials. We discussed the idea of judicial independence, which had been written into the constitution but never really practiced.

        To our delight, the party was in fact experimenting with democracy, both within its own operations and in society at the grassroots level. I saw all of this as hopeful signs of progress. But subsequent events would only cement my disillusionment.

        ANOTHER WAY

        A key turning point came in 2008, when I took a brief but fateful trip to Spain. Visiting the country as part of an academic exchange, I learned how Spain had transitioned from autocracy to democracy after the death of its dictator, Francisco Franco, in 1975. I could not help but compare Spain’s experience to China’s. Mao died just ten months after Franco, and both countries underwent tremendous changes in the ensuing three decades. But whereas Spain quickly and peacefully made the leap to democracy and achieved social stability and economic prosperity, China accomplished only a partial transition, moving from a planned economy to a mixed economy without liberalizing its politics. What could Spain teach China?

        I came to the pessimistic conclusion that the CCP was unlikely to reform politically. For one thing, Spain’s transition was initiated by reformist forces within the post-Franco regime, such as King Juan Carlos I, who placed national interests above their personal interests. The CCP, having come to power in 1949 through violence, was deeply wedded to the idea that it had earned a permanent monopoly on political power. The party’s record, particularly its crackdown on the Tiananmen Square protests, demonstrated that it would not give up that monopoly peacefully. And none of the post-Deng leaders had the courage to push for political reform; they simply wanted to pass the buck to future leaders.

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        China’s Politburo Standing Committee members in Beijing, November 2012; Carlos Barria / Reuters

        I also learned that after Franco’s death, Spain quickly created a favorable environment for reform, consolidating judicial independence and expanding freedom of the press. It even incorporated opposition forces into the transition process. The CCP, by contrast, has treated demands for social and economic justice as threats to its power, suppressing civil society and restricting people’s liberties. The regime and the people have been locked in confrontation for decades, making reconciliation unthinkable.

        My newly acquired understanding of the democratic transition in Spain, along with what I already knew about those in the former Soviet bloc, led me to fundamentally reject the Marxist ideology in which I once had unshakable faith. I came to realize that the theories Marx advanced in the nineteenth century were limited by his own intellect and the historical circumstances of his time. Moreover, I saw that the highly centralized, oppressive version of Marxism promoted by the CCP owed more to Stalin than to Marx himself. I increasingly recognized it as an ideology formed to serve a self-interested dictatorship. Marxism, I began to hint in publications and lectures, should not be worshiped as an absolute truth, and China had to start the journey to democracy. In 2010, when some liberal scholars published an edited volume called Toward Constitutionalism, I contributed an article that discussed the Spanish experience.

        My vision—shared with other liberal scholars—was that China would start by implementing democracy within the party, which, over the long run, would lead to a constitutional democracy. China would have a parliament, even a real opposition party. In my heart, I worried that the CCP might violently resist such a transition, but I kept that thought to myself. Instead, when speaking with colleagues and students, I argued that such a transition would be good for China and even for the party itself, which could consolidate its legitimacy by making itself more accountable to the people. Many of the officials I taught acknowledged that the party faced problems, but they could not say so themselves. Instead, they cautiously urged me to persuade their superiors.

        THE DISAPPOINTMENT OF XI

        The problem was that at that very time, Jiang’s successor, Hu Jintao, was moving in the opposite direction. In 2003, while in the process of taking over the reins of power, Hu had put forward “the Scientific Outlook on Development,” his substitute for Jiang’s Three Represents. The concept was another attempt to justify China’s mixed development model with a thin cover of Marxist-sounding ideology, and it avoided the big questions facing China. China’s breakneck development was producing social conflict as farmers’ land was seized for development and factories squeezed workers for more profits. The number of petitioners seeking redress from the government increased dramatically, and nationwide, demonstrations eventually exceeded 100,000 per year. To me, the discontent showed that it was becoming harder for China to develop its economy without liberalizing its politics.

        Hu thought otherwise. “Don’t muck up things,” he said in 2008, at a ceremony marking the 30th anniversary of the policy of reform and opening. I understood this to mean that the economic, political, and ideological reforms the party had made so far should be maintained but not pushed forward. Hu was defending himself against accusations from both sides: from conservatives who thought that reform had gone too far and from liberals who thought it hadn’t gone far enough. So China, under his watch, entered a period of political stagnation, a decline similar to what the Soviet Union experienced under Leonid Brezhnev.

        Thus it was with optimism that I looked to Xi when it became clear that he was going to take power. The easy reforms had all been made 30 years ago; now it was time for the hard ones. Given the reputation of Xi’s father, a former CCP leader with liberal inclinations, and the flexible style that Xi himself had displayed in previous posts, I and other advocates of reform hoped that our new leader would have the courage to enact bold changes to China’s political system. But not everyone had such confidence in Xi. The skeptics I knew fell into two categories. Both proved prescient.

        The first group consisted of princelings—descendants of the party’s founders. Xi was a princeling, as was Bo Xilai, the dynamic party chief of Chongqing. Xi and Bo rose to senior provincial and ministerial positions at almost the same time, and both were expected to join the highest body in the CCP, the Politburo Standing Committee, and were considered top contenders to lead China. But Bo fell out of the leadership competition early in 2012, when he was implicated in his wife’s murder of a British businessman, and the party’s senior statesmen backed the safe and steady Xi. The princelings I knew, familiar with Xi’s ruthlessness, predicted that the rivalry would not end there. Indeed, after Xi took power, Bo was convicted of corruption, stripped of all his assets, and sentenced to life in prison.

        The other group of skeptics consisted of establishment scholars. More than a month before the 18th Party Congress of November 2012, when Xi would be formally unveiled as the CCP’s new general secretary, I was chatting with a veteran reporter from a major Chinese magazine and a leading professor at my school who had observed Xi’s career for a long time. The two had just wrapped up an interview, and before leaving, the reporter tossed out a question: “I hear that Xi Jinping lived in the Central Party School compound for a period of time. Now he’s about to become the party’s general secretary. What do you think of him?” The professor’s lip twitched, and he said with disdain that Xi suffered from “inadequate knowledge.” The reporter and I were stunned at this blunt pronouncement.

        In spite of these negative views, I willingly suspended disbelief and put my hopes in Xi. But shortly after Xi’s ascension, I started to have my doubts. A December 2012 speech he gave suggested a reformist and progressive mentality, but other statements hinted at a throwback to the pre-reform era. Was Xi headed left or right? I had just retired from the Central Party School, but I still kept in touch with my former colleagues. Once when I was talking to some of them about Xi’s plans, one of them said, “It’s not a question of whether Xi is going left or right but rather that he lacks basic judgment and speaks illogically.” Everyone fell silent. A chill ran down my spine. With deficiencies like these, how could we expect him to lead a struggle for political reform?

        I soon concluded that we probably could not. After Xi released his comprehensive reform plan in late 2013, business and academic circles excitedly predicted that he would push ahead with major reforms. My feeling was just the opposite. The plan avoided all the key issues of political reform. China’s long-standing problems of corruption, excessive debt, and unprofitable state enterprises are rooted in party officials’ power to meddle in economic decisions without public supervision. Trying to liberalize the economy while tightening political control was a contradiction. Yet Xi was launching the biggest ideological campaign since Mao’s death to revive Maoist rule. His plan called for intensified societal surveillance and a clampdown on free expression. A ban on any discussion of constitutional democracy and universal values was shamelessly promoted under the banner of “governance, management, service, and law.”

        This trend continued with a package of legal reforms passed in 2014, which further exposed the party’s intent to use the law as a tool for maintaining totalitarian rule. At this point, Xi’s perverse tendencies and the CCP’s political regression were clear. If I once had a vague hope for Xi and the party, my illusions were now shattered. Subsequent events would only confirm that when it came to reform, Xi was taking China from stagnation to regression. In 2015, the party rounded up hundreds of defense lawyers. The next year, it launched a Cultural Revolution–style campaign against an outspoken real estate tycoon. It was my reaction to that episode that landed me in hot water.

        THE LAST STRAW

        The tycoon, Ren Zhiqiang, had increasingly come into conflict with Xi, whom he criticized for censoring Chinese media. In February 2016, a CCP website labeled Ren as “anti-party.” I didn’t know Ren personally, but his case struck me as especially disturbing because I had long relied on the principle that within the CCP, we were allowed—even encouraged—to speak freely in order to help the party correct its own mistakes. Here was a longtime party member who had been demonized for doing just that. Having lived through the Cultural Revolution, I knew that people branded with the label “anti-party” were deprived of their rights and subjected to harsh persecution. Since a defense of Ren could never be published in censored media outlets, I wrote one up and sent it to a WeChat group, hoping my friends would share it with their contacts. My article went viral.

        Although most of my article simply quoted the party’s constitution and code of conduct, the Central Party School’s disciplinary committee accused me of serious errors. I faced a series of intimidating interviews in which my interrogators applied psychological pressure and laid word traps in an effort to induce a false confession of wrongdoing. It was uncomfortable, but I recognized the process as a psychological contest. If I didn’t show fear, I realized, they would lose half the battle. And so a stalemate ensued: I kept publishing, and the authorities kept calling me in for questioning. Soon, I concluded that security agencies were tapping my phone, reading my digital correspondence, and following me to see where I went and with whom I met. Retired professors from the Central Party School usually need permission only from the school to travel to Hong Kong or abroad, but now the school hinted that I had to clear such trips with the Ministry of State Security in the future.

        In April 2016, the text of a speech I had given a few months earlier at Tsinghua University—in which I argued that if ideology violates common sense, it deteriorates into lies—was published on an influential website in Hong Kong. The timing was bad: Xi had just announced that some of the free inquiry taking place at the Central Party School had gone too far and urged greater supervision of its professors. As a result, in early May, I was called in again by the school’s disciplinary committee and accused of opposing Xi. From then on, the CCP blocked me from all media in China—print, online, television. Even my name could not be published. Then, one night in July, I was summoned again to a meeting at the Central Party School, where a member of the disciplinary committee placed a foot-tall pile of documents on the table in front of me. “There’s already this much material on you,” he said. “Think it over.” It was clear that I was being warned to keep silent and that if I so much as tweeted a word, I would be subjected to disciplinary action, including reduced retirement benefits. I was indignant at my treatment, even though I understood that others had been dealt with even more harshly.

        In all my years as a member of the CCP, I had never violated a single rule, nor had I ever been called in for a reprimand. But now, I was regularly interrogated by party officials. The school’s disciplinary committee repeatedly threatened the humiliating prospect of holding a large public meeting and announcing a formal punishment. At the end of each conversation, my interrogators demanded I keep it a secret. It was all part of an underworld that couldn’t be exposed to the light of day.

        Then came a cover-up of police brutality that triggered my final break with Xi and the party. Earlier, in May 2016, Lei Yang, an environmental scientist, was on his way to the airport to pick up his mother-in-law when, in circumstances that remain murky, he died in the custody of the Beijing police. In order to evade responsibility for the crime, the police framed Lei, alleging that he had been soliciting a prostitute. His classmates from his university days, outraged at this attempt at defamation, banded together to help his family seek justice, starting a campaign that reverberated throughout China. To quell the fury, the CCP’s top leaders ordered an investigation. The prosecution agreed to an independent autopsy, and a trial was scheduled to argue the matter.

        A strange thing happened next: Lei’s parents, wife, and children were put under house arrest, and the local government offered them massive compensation, about $1 million, to give up their pursuit of the truth. When Lei’s family refused, the payment was increased to $3 million. Even after a $3 million house was thrown in, Lei’s wife insisted on clearing her late husband’s name. The government then pressured Lei’s parents, who knelt before their daughter-in-law and begged her to abandon the case. In December, prosecutors announced that they would not charge anyone for Lei’s death, and his family’s lawyer revealed that he had been forced to stand down.

        When I learned of this outcome, I sat at my desk all night, overcome with grief and anger. Lei’s death was a clear-cut case of wrongdoing, and instead of punishing the police officers responsible, their superiors had tried to use the people’s hard-earned tax money to settle the matter out of court. Officials were closing ranks rather than serving the people. I asked myself, If the CCP’s officials are capable of such despicable actions, how can the party be trusted? Most of all, I wondered how I could remain part of this system.

        After 20 years of hesitation, confusion, and misery, I made the decision to emerge from the darkness and make a complete break with the party. Xi’s great leap backward soon left me with no other choice. In 2018, Xi abolished presidential term limits, raising the prospect that I would have to live indefinitely under neo-Stalinist rule. The next summer, I was able to travel to the United States on a tourist visa. While there, I received a message from a friend telling me that the Chinese authorities, accusing me of “anti-China” activities, would arrest me if I returned. I decided to prolong my visit until things calmed down. Then the COVID-19 pandemic broke out, and flights to China were canceled, so I had to wait a little longer. At the same time, I was disgusted by Xi’s mishandling of the outbreak and signed a petition supporting Li Wenliang, the Wuhan ophthalmologist who had been harassed by police for warning his friends about the new disease and eventually died of it. I received urgent phone calls from the authorities at the Central Party School demanding that I come home.

        But the atmosphere in China was growing darker. Ren, the dissident real estate tycoon, disappeared in March and was soon expelled from the party and sentenced to 18 years in prison. Meanwhile, my problems with the authorities were compounded by the unauthorized release of a private talk I had given online to a small circle of friends in which I had called the CCP “a political zombie” and said that Xi should step down. When I sent friends a short article I had written denouncing Xi’s repressive new national security law in Hong Kong, someone leaked that, too.

        I knew I was in trouble. Soon, I was expelled from the party. The school stripped me of my retirement benefits. My bank account was frozen. I asked the authorities at the Central Party School for a guarantee of my personal safety if I returned. Officials there avoided answering the question and instead made vague threats against my daughter in China and her young son. It was at this point that I accepted the truth: there was no going back.

      • "A Keynesian Beauty Contest — But With No Beauty"
        "A Keynesian Beauty Contest — But With No Beauty"


        Tyler Durden

        Fri, 12/04/2020 – 18:55

        Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington (“Cash Pennington”) hosts managing editor Ed Harrison to break down today’s dismal data on the state of the U.S. labor market. Ed and Ash put in context the non-farm payroll figures, released today, and contrast this dreadful print with the rally in U.S. equities. After reflecting on what these job numbers means for the yield curve and interest rate margins, Ed and Ash conduct an even-handed analysis of the worsening data on COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospitalizations. In the intro, editor Jack Farley explores why the investors seem convinced that the adverse jobs data is actually good news for the stock market.

      • Uranium Stocks Soar: Is This The Beginning Of The Next ESG Craze
        Uranium Stocks Soar: Is This The Beginning Of The Next ESG Craze

        Tyler Durden

        Fri, 12/04/2020 – 18:40

        Uranium stocks soared on Friday after House and Senate lawmakers revealed a compromise version of the annual National Defense Authorization Act. According to S&P Global, the bill effectively provides for the military to continue a policy under President-elect Joe Biden that classifies the domestic supplies of certain minerals such as uranium, graphite and lithium as vital to national security.

        Uranium companies such as Cameco rose 9.7%, Uranium Energy +10%, Energy Fuels +17%, North Short GLobal Uranium Mining +6%.

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        Even ahead of today’s NDAA announcement, the URA Uranium ETF was breaking out of an elongated bear market and downtrending channel to the upside as Larry McDonald’s latest Bear Traps report showed.

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        Even ahead of today’s announcement, Bear Traps noted that “CCJ and uranium have been fading sideways since June while the rest of the commodity space has rallied” and added that it expects uranium names “to play catch-up in the months ahead.”

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        Reminding readers that uranium has historically been a high-flying sector, the report predicts that “if the mad-mob trading FCEL and other ESG names gets ahold of uranium… Watch out.“

        As McDonald concludes “we find it more than bizarre that every commodity is ripping and uranium miners are dead in the water. Seasonally and politically, upside CCJ vol looks extremely cheap.”

        So besides a convenient way to profit from the wave of virtue-signaling sweeping passive investors (and, potentially, World War III), here is why if uranium is indeed stirring to the upside it has a long way to go:

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        Finally, for those unconvinced, below we repost McDonald’s Uranium bull case:

        * * *

        When are people going to figure out how GREEN Cameco CCJ equity is?!

        CCJ Seasonal Returns

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        Notice how when energy commodities were still rising (2011-2014) CCJ’s December and January returns were very strong. Meanwhile, every commodity stock is the metal space is up 40% in the past month, futures are ripping too yet CCJ and UXA1 are at April levels. CCJ calls are cheap, seasonality looks good, and with all these hot stocks jumping around (FCEL traded 1/2 of its market cap today) I think its only a matter of time before the mad mob finds Uranium equities… Buy the March $11 calls, put them in the drawer.

        PM on CCJ Cameco Corp

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        Agree with your thesis. The space is so small and it makes so much sense. However, it would really be nice to see the spot U price catch a sustainable bid here. I am looking for a turn of the year trade in U, if not sooner. We need to see some utility to ink a relatively good sized contract to get things moving. That would be big. I am also looking for financial players to get more serious about throwing weight around in this sector. A group with decent capital at a multi-strat HF or a medium sized fund could allocate a few hundred mill and create their own reality in this sector, IMO. The order of operations would be to buy up positions in call option like U miners, then buy the U trusts trading at discounts and then hit the spot market hard. I think you would make money on all legs of that if you committed a few hundred mill to it.

        Looking at moves in some U stocks recently I wonder if this operation could be starting…

        It seemed like the whole U mining sector in Australia was up 13% on Tuesday (several names up that much). We are seeing stuff like UUUU today. And even LEU (+9.6%) which is a name I need to understand better and could have a very interesting role to play in a resurgent US nuclear sector.

        I am very excited about the potential here. With NXE and PDN.au my bit positions I am definitely liking the action, but I know we have to see U move eventually. And CCJ probably has to move too as the only “investable” name in the space if you exclude KAP.li

        It seems to me CCJ could be $12 in a hurry if it just catches a bid like many in the sector have.

        But it’s hard to argue that the better trade isn’t Uranium Participation Corp for people that can make do with the liquidity. The 17% discount to NAV is just a big deal, especially if you believe, as I do that it will be at a premium during this cycle. Risk reward is just excellent there. You are buying a discount to NAV based on a spot discount to forward, at a commodity price which is unsustainably low, at a time when the whole commodity deck has been priced higher, when even Elon Musk is flagging the need for nuclear power.

        A commodity that hasn’t moved right as the world wakes up to inflation with an actual clean energy angle to it. This could well be THE trade for 2021, IMO. I know it’s been slow to develop, but it just looks better than ever.

        Industry Expert on the Uranium Fundamentals – BULLISH CCJ Equity

        The consensus seems to be that Biden will be far more bullish for uranium than Trump has ever been in his 4 years. Biden’s $2T Infrastructure plan embraces the current nuclear reactor industry and creates a new ARPA Agency for Climate that has put the development and deployment of advanced nuclear reactors as a priority, seeking to build them cheaper and faster through technical innovation. Biden’s push for clean energy will also serve to reduce competition from coal powered plants that will be phased out sooner, and carbon-emitting gas plants as well given power grids will become more carbon sensitive, rewarding carbon-free nuclear and hydro for their climate change mitigation. Today the bipartisan US Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works approved the American Nuclear Infrastructure Act designed to boost the US nuclear industry, establish a strategic Uranium Reserve, support enhancing the US nuclear fuel cycle and encourage US reactor exports worldwide. All signs are pointing towards a US nuclear renaissance if Biden Administration is to achieve its Net Zero emissions goals, as all evidence shows that intermittent renewables, solar and wind, are not able to provide the continuous 24/7 baseload carbon-free electricity needed by industry and the transition to electric transportation from cars to buses to truck transport. California has been the poster child for the failure of renewables to deliver on their early promise.  The outlook for US nuclear has never been better in the past few decades as Democrats now flip to be nuclear advocates, and with pro-nuclear Kerry nominated as Biden’s Climate Envoy, that renaissance could spread throughout the west as US rejoins Paris Climate Accord.

        Both US and Russia are also now looking to leverage their nuclear power generation capacity to produce clean hydrogen fuel, adding more value to reactors in the clean energy transition while creating a new revenue stream that will support maintaining the US fleet where already a number of utilities have applied to extend reactor operating lives to 80 years from the previous limit of 60.

        On the supply side, 2020 has seen a record uranium supply deficit due to previous mine shutdowns, flexing down by Kazakhstan, and 5-month mining suspensions at Cameco’s Cigar Lake and all of Kazakhstan’s ISR uranium mines.  Total mined supply this year will come in under 120M lbs, a level not seen since 2008. The 5-month cessation of ISR wellfield development, during what is usually Kazakhstan’s peak seasonal period for drilling and expanding wells to maintain production levels, is only now beginning to impact uranium production, and there is a high expectation that 2021 will see that supply destruction continue into Q2.  For the first time ever both Cameco and Kazatomprom have depleted their held inventory, forcing both to be active buyers in the Spot market in order to fulfill their contract delivery commitments.  With COVID-19 case numbers continuing to spike higher in Northern Saskatchewan, chances of another temporary shutdown of Cigar Lake are increasing daily.  Spot U3O8 price has responded, jumping above $34/lb in March/April then backing off to level off near $30/lb at present to create a new floor at 25% above its March low.

        Further fueling the bullish outlook for uranium was the decision by BHP to scrap its Olympic Dam mine expansion plan.  Uranium is an 8M lbs/yr by-product of that mine, which BHP simply sells primarily to traders in the Spot market.  The expansion plan was expected to add another 7-8M lbs/yr supply to Spot market.  ERA’s Ranger Mine in Australia closes permanently next month, and Orano’s COMINAK mine in Niger, West Africa, will close permanently in March of next year.  Together they will reduce 2021 supply by somewhere around 7M lbs/yr.   The only major new mine actively trying to get into production is Berkeley Energia’s Salamanca mine in Spain.  It had received all but 1 of the dozens of permits needed to begin construction before being potentially shelved due to a policy change in government.  Brazil has just begun building a small new open pit mine which is expected to produce just over 500,000 lbs per year starting in 2022. All other mine projects remain on hold, as are all mine restarts as operators wait for uranium prices to move significantly higher into the $40-$50/lb range.

        On the nuclear demand side, nuclear utilities have seen almost all of the political and trade overhangs removed that have been keeping them on the sidelines since the Section 232 Uranium Petition was served in January 2018.  They withdrew their RFP’s nearly 3 years ago, preferring to delay contracting until a long list of uncertainties were dealt with. The Section 232 morphed into the Nuclear Fuel Working Group but many of the recommendations were not actioned. Uncertainty over the Iran nuclear waivers became a major issue but that too has been resolved. The most significant uranium trade issue this year was negotiating an extension to the Russian Suspension Agreement, which Commerce and Rosatom eventually concluded successfully. The RSA was extended to at least 2040 with limits on Russian uranium imports being reduced from 20% to 15% of US nuclear fuel requirements by 2040. The last remaining political overhang is the US election outcome, as nuclear utilities do not want to enter into long term contracts until certain that they will get the support they need to keep them running under a new administration.

        While COVID-19 has had a severe impact on uranium supply, it has had an opposite effect on demand.  Continuous baseload power has been in high demand throughout the pandemic, and many nations are targeting COVID recovery infrastructure funds to rebuild their power grids with carbon-free energy to achieve their net zero emissions goals.  In just the past few months there has been a strong shift to expand nuclear power generating capacity in China, India, and most recently in Britain where PM Boris Johnson is pushing for construction of a new 3200MW Sizewell-C power plant, and the 16 x 440MW UKSMR advanced reactors that the Rolls-Royce consortium is planning to build across the UK, hoping to expand into the global market.  Advanced reactor projects have found new legs in Canada and the US.  In all there are now 72 new advanced reactor designs under development in 18 countries. Many had thought that COVID-19 would hurt the nuclear industry by reducing demand, but the outlook now seems to be that it has instead fueled a new global nuclear renaissance, just as global uranium supply is in a record deficit. Demand this year is in the order of 187M lbs (vs 120M lbs of primary mined supply) and TradeTech expects demand to rise to 220M lbs over the next 10 years.  Where the supply will come from to bring the market back into balance is the big unknown.  All the major new mines are many years away from construction, and those looking to restart, like Paladin’s Langer Heinrich and Cameco’s McArthur River, are also 2 years or more away.  Kazatomprom has extended their production flex-down through to the end of 2022.  In the 11 years I’ve been following the uranium sector, never have the fundamentals been so strong for a major uranium price recovery like what was seen in 2004-2007. “If” is no longer the question… only “When” remains open.

        COVID-19 has been sidelining nuclear fuel buyers as well, given the folks who have been engaged in a record number of reactor refuelings in 2020, under the added pressure of operating through a pandemic, are the same folks tasked with negotiating for new long term contracts with producers.  Term contracting has been very slow as utilities choose to draw down inventories, buying small quantities on Spot, deferring contracting into next year.  With Cameco, Kazatomprom and some utilities buying pounds in a depleted Spot market, the Spot price has found its floor near $30.  Once COVID begins to wane we are expecting to see a strong re-stocking cycle where utilities will over-buy to replace their cushions and acquire the new fuel needed in 2-3 years’ time. As the waiting game continues we are seeing new interest emerging in the uranium space, with some significant gains in quite a few developers and explorers over the past few weeks. I expect that to continue in what is usually a strong seasonal period from now until April/May.

        That’s a synopsis of where things stand today with respect to the Uranium bull case. A major move in uranium and related equities seems closer than ever… things move slowly in this sector… until they don’t.

      • The Plot Against Small Businesses
        The Plot Against Small Businesses

        Tyler Durden

        Fri, 12/04/2020 – 18:20

        Authored by Ash Staub via HumanEvents.,com,

        If one were to consider the upward transfer of wealth and market share to Big Business since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, one would think such economic changes were intended. After all, it’s no secret that the interests of politicians and the corporate elite align more often than not.

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        As we near a year of lockdowns and sheltering in place, the long-term effects of pandemic policy on the economy are becoming clearer. Almost every piece of legislation ostensibly designed to curb the spread of the coronavirus and protect workers has wreaked devastation on small businesses—while benefiting the largest corporations. Roughly 100,000 small businesses have permanently closed due to COVID-19, while big-box retailers, tech giants, and pharmaceutical manufacturers have seen record profits.

        America’s small businesses currently face an attack on all fronts.

        • First, there are the more visible policies (e.g., lockdowns, mask mandates, and social distancing requirements) that strongly discourage people from patronizing brick-and-mortar retailers and restaurants. These policies impact small businesses more than large chains and corporations. Small retailers, for example, may not have the space to effectively implement social distancing policies, and often lack an online infrastructure to support curbside pickups of retail goods.

        • Second, the cost of complying with health and safety guidelines, and the corresponding fines if businesses don’t comply, have forced businesses to incur additional expenses while their revenue declines. According to the Small Business Administration, the cost of compliance disproportionately impacts small businesses, who lack the funds and infrastructure of large corporations to adapt to new regulation. Overhauling a business to accommodate remote work, for example, requires a flexibility and an investment of resources that many small businesses simply do not have. For dine-in restaurants, the vast majority of which are small businesses, switching to outdoor dining is often not even possible given the business’s location.

        • Lastly, there are ever-evolving COVID-19 employment regulations that disproportionately expose small businesses to lawsuits and the subsequent legal expenses and damages that may result. The conspicuous absence of liability protection also disadvantages small businesses, as the largest corporations can spare the capital required to fight lawsuits and painlessly pay out any damages. For example, Publix, a large supermarket chain, has so far managed to avoid paying damages to the family of an employee who died of COVID-19 due to the fact that he wasn’t allowed to wear a mask at work.

        Despite the fact that these policies are explicitly harmful to small businesses, they can be justified on the basis of “public health” and thereby shielded from criticism. Practically unlimited regulation (that always seems to benefit the corporate elite) can be defended, because such policies are said to be designed to ensure the health and safety of the public. Opposition to these onerous restrictions can therefore be conveniently characterized as “anti-science,” or worse, reckless and/or malicious endangerment of one’s community. As a consequence, policies that explicitly disadvantage small businesses, such as the Families First Coronavirus Response Act (FFCRA), can be passed under the guise of public health and worker protection without raising any alarm bells.

        When considering the cumulative effects of pandemic policy, a clear pattern begins to emerge.  Every substantial piece of COVID-19 legislation enacted at the federal level has harmed small businesses while benefiting large corporations. This indicates, at the very least, a willful indifference on the part of lawmakers to the plight of small businesses, but more likely, a conscious effort to disadvantage small businesses for the advantage of Big Business.

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        THE EFFECTS OF COVID-19 LEGISLATION

        The FFCRA, passed in March of this year, requires businesses to provide two weeks of paid sick leave for quarantined employees and/or employees experiencing COVID-19 related symptoms. It also requires two weeks of paid sick leave at two-thirds the regular rate of pay for employees who need to care for quarantined individuals, such as elderly relatives or spouses. Furthermore, employers must also provide ten weeks of extended leave, also at two-thirds the regular rate of pay, for employees caring for their children due to school closures.

        The FFCRA only applies to employers with fewer than 500 employees.

        It sounds absurd, but it’s correct; the businesses most capable of providing these benefits are under no legal obligation to do so, while those most affected by the pandemic are expected to incur the FFCRA’s additional expenses. While the actual cost of paid leave is reimbursed through tax credits, there is no reimbursement for lost labor and productivity, and the subsequent disadvantage compared to large, FFCRA-exempt competitors. This is not to say that businesses should or should not provide these benefits—only to point out how the policy singles out and targets small businesses.

        And as small businesses shut down in droves, it’s difficult to justify this competitive disadvantage. 58% of small business owners say they’re worried about closing, while 100,000 small businesses have already closed. The smallest businesses are the hardest hit: 48% of businesses with 1-4 employees claim to have been severely impacted by the new COVID-era regulations.

        Furthermore, the financial burden of the FFCRA extends beyond the simple cost of compliance. As a result of the FFCRA, small businesses have been sued over violations of employment regulations at a substantially higher rate than big businesses. Despite employing 52% of the nation’s workforce, private employers with less than 500 employees (those forced to comply with the FFCRA) were the defendants in 65% of COVID-19 related employment lawsuits; employers with less than 50 employees were the defendants in 38% of lawsuits. That means the businesses least capable of contesting an employment lawsuit, much less incurring the financial burden of liability damages and legal fees, are the businesses most often sued. 

        Thus, the FFCRA has imposed financial obligations on small businesses while exempting big businesses. Small businesses are forced to pay the cost of complying with the FFCRA, while big businesses are not. Small businesses are at risk of FFCRA-related lawsuits; big businesses are not. The FFCRA clearly disadvantages small businesses, and expecting small businesses to incur the cost of the FFCRA while their revenue plummets, and their corporate competition profits, is a recipe for widespread small business bankruptcy. 

        And that is exactly what’s happening.

        This is a feature, not a bug, and calls into question the true purpose of the FFCRA. There is no good-faith reason for big businesses to be exempt from the FFCRA that would also not apply to small businesses. Furthermore, if the FFCRA really was designed to protect workers, why only cover half the workforce? Why exempt the largest employers? Are Walmart employees privy to some germ-repelling magic elixir, thereby absolving Walmart of the same responsibilities demanded of small businesses? The fact of the matter is that the FFCRA is more interested in transferring the market share of small businesses to giant corporations than protecting workers.

        Federal relief, or lack thereof, reinforces this claim. The CARES Act, the 2.2 trillion dollar federal stimulus bill passed in March, offers a lifeline to small businesses in the form of the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), a loan issued at a 1% interest rate. Yet the loan only covers roughly ten weeks of payroll expenses, and applications closed in early August. It is now early December, and further financial aid to small businesses has yet to be legislated. Moreover, while the CARES Act offers $349 billion in aid to small businesses, it provides upwards of $500 billion to large businesses, in effect rewarding the businesses already profiting off the pandemic, to the detriment of the small businesses suffering the most.

        Relief in the form of liability protection is also not forthcoming. The HEALS Act, a stimulus bill which would include COVID-19 liability shields for all employers, has been tied up in the Senate since July, with much of its delay attributable to opposition to its liability protections. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) is among the more vocal opponents of liability shields, arguing that businesses would be “off the hook” if an employee or customer were to contract COVID-19 at a business establishment, thereby permitting businesses to neglect health precautions. “Without any ability to hold an employer [liable],” Gillibrand argues, “then you’re putting a lot of workers and a lot of Americans across the country at grave risk.”

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        Even though big businesses are actively lobbying for and would benefit from liability shields, it’s clear that withholding liability protections disproportionately impacts small businesses while favoring corporations with the most capital and access to quality legal representation. A retail giant such as Target, which has unsurprisingly profited off the pandemic, can easily afford to pay out any liability damages. Moreover, Target has the resources to contest the claim in court. But a family-owned consignment store? A single lawsuit may well bankrupt the business. And as small businesses are the defendants in a significantly larger portion of COVID-19 related lawsuits, the absence of liability shields contributes to their demise.

        Though the lack of liability protection legislation can partly be attributed to garden-variety legislative sclerosis and inefficiency, its absence disproportionately affects small businesses. The degree to which this is intentional is unclear. What is clear, however, is that Congress is well aware of the difficulties facing small businesses given the fact that small business stimulus legislation has been discussed since July, and that the lack of liability protection exacerbates these difficulties, but it has done nothing. This continued inaction as small business bankruptcies and lawsuits pile up is at the very least tantamount to indifference, and therefore tacit approval.

        Unless our policymakers are woefully incompetent, the intent of policy cannot be divorced from its effect. And the effect of COVID-19 policy on small businesses has been devastating. Relief is nonexistent, as is the case with liability shields, or inadequate, in the case of the PPP. Public health and worker/customer protection legislation is explicitly harmful to America’s small businesses in the cases of the FFCRA, lockdowns, and onerous restrictions. 

        If one were extremely charitable, the lack of liability protections can be attributed to callous indifference, and the inadequacy of the PPP can be chalked up to sclerosis and bad policy. Lockdowns and health and safety obligations have public health justifications. But the FFCRA’s targeting of small businesses is indefensible. There is no reasonable explanation for the FFCRA to not apply to Big Business other than to disadvantage small businesses.

        When considered together, these policies have demonstrably harmed small businesses while favoring big businesses. The systematic transfer of wealth and market space from small businesses to large corporations is entirely the result of government policy. Again, intent cannot be separated from effect, and the lack of persuasive arguments justifying the targeting of small businesses by policymakers can be explained in simple terms: pandemic policy was an intentional effort by policymakers to facilitate an upward transfer of wealth to Big Business at the expense of small business.

      Digest powered by RSS Digest

      Dec 03

      Today’s News 3rd December 2020

      • World Economic Forum Encourages Plebs To Eat Weeds & Drink Sewage
        World Economic Forum Encourages Plebs To Eat Weeds & Drink Sewage

        Tyler Durden

        Thu, 12/03/2020 – 02:00

        Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

        The World Economic Forum published two articles on its website which explored how people could be conditioned to get used to the idea of eating weeds, bugs and drinking sewage water in order to reduce CO2 emissions.

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        Yes, really.

        “Finding new plant-based foods is becoming increasingly urgent with the world’s population forecast to grow by two billion in the next 30 years,” states an article authored by Douglas Broom published on the official WEF website

        “While farming animals for meat generates 14.5% of total global greenhouse emissions, weeds capture carbon from the atmosphere and can therefore help to control climate change.”

        According to Broom, “Weeds can be nutritious and tasty” and are easy to grow.

        The article fails to explain why weeds such as dandelion leaves, given that they are so ubiquitous, haven’t been made a staple of western diets already.

        “The next time a panhandler approaches your car at a stoplight, point to the tasty and nutritious weeds sprouting up through cracks in the pavement and tell him, “Bon appétit!” writes Dave Blount.

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        A separate article also published on the WEF website investigates how people can be conditioned to enjoy consuming ‘food’ which on the surface sounds disgusting.

        “Responses involving culturally conditioned ideas of what is “natural” may be modified over time,” states the piece, before asking why there is a revulsion against “insect-based foods” and “drinks with ingredients reclaimed from sewage.”

        The author concludes that “desensitisation (repeated exposures)” may be effective in “reducing disgust (versus fear)” among the “general population.”

        Maybe the WEF will be satisfied when we’re all forced to eat tree bark and roots, food sources that starving peasants in Stalinist Ukraine were reduced to consuming during the Holodomor.

        And that’s the point.

        The ‘Great Reset’ is about enacting a drastic reduction in living standards for the plebs which will force them to put bugs, weeds and sewage on the menu while the Davos elites continue to feast on the finest cuisine in their ivory towers.

        *  *  *

        New limited edition merch now available! Click here. In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch. I need you to sign up for my free newsletter here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown. Also, I urgently need your financial support here.

      • UN Says 233,000 Yemenis Dead After 6 Years Of Saudi-US Coalition Bombing
        UN Says 233,000 Yemenis Dead After 6 Years Of Saudi-US Coalition Bombing

        Tyler Durden

        Thu, 12/03/2020 – 01:00

        A grim milestone in the “forgotten war” which has close US involvement: six years after the Saudi coalition began bombing Yemen to prevent a full Houthi rebel takeover of the country, the United Nations has issued an updated official tally of the death toll.

        The UN now says an estimated 233,000 people have died as a result of the over half-decade long conflict. Most of the deaths are believed to be from ‘indirect causes’ such as collapse of societal infrastructure, disease, and lack of food and resources.

        “The war had already caused an estimated 233,000 deaths, including 131,000 from indirect causes such as lack of food, health services and infrastructure,” the UN’s top humanitarian office said early this week. This leaves a staggering over 100,000 direct combat deaths – likely most from aerial bombing.

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        American-supplied Saudi F-16, file image.

        Calling it an “imminent catastrophe” the UN office described that “Yemen’s complex civil war began in earnest in 2015, foisting disease, hunger and economic collapse on an already impoverished population. In 2020 the violence escalated and the hardship deepened with torrential rains, a fuel crisis, COVID-19 and desert locust infestations that are expected to cause damage and loss worth $222 million to staple crops, animals and livestock.”

        “Hostilities have directly caused tens of thousands of civilian casualties; 3,153 child deaths and 5,660 children were verified in the first five years of the conflict, and 1,500 civilian casualties were reported in the first nine months of 2020,” it added of direct combat deaths in addition to indirect casualties.

        The US-Saudi coalition had also for years imposed a full blockade on the country’s main ports, including the major Hodeidah, which is the country’s most important shipping port. Humanitarian goods were also blocked for years.

        When during the first half of the war in Syria casualties reached over 200,000 lives lost it drove international headlines and became a key talking point for those urging military intervention to oust Assad there.

        https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

        However, given the US and UK are direct participants on executing the war in Yemen alongside the Saudis and the UAE (including US and UK advanced weaponry being used), the tragedy of Yemen has been glaringly absent from the talking points of the Western political class.

      • COVID-19 Vaccines Pave The Way For A New Frontier In Surveillance
        COVID-19 Vaccines Pave The Way For A New Frontier In Surveillance

        Tyler Durden

        Wed, 12/02/2020 – 23:40

        Authored by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

        “Man’s conquest of Nature, if the dreams of some scientific planners are realized, means the rule of a few hundreds of men over billions upon billions of men.”

        – C. S. Lewis, The Abolition of Man

        Like it or not, the COVID-19 pandemic with its veiled threat of forced vaccinations, contact tracing, and genetically encoded vaccines is propelling humanity at warp speed into a whole new frontier – a surveillance matrix – the likes of which we’ve only previously encountered in science fiction.

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        Those who eye these developments with lingering mistrust have good reason to be leery: the government has long had a tendency to unleash untold horrors upon the world in the name of global conquest, the acquisition of greater wealth, scientific experimentation, and technological advances, all packaged in the guise of the greater good.

        Indeed, “we the people” have been treated like lab rats by government agencies for decades now: caged, branded, experimented upon without our knowledge or consent, and then conveniently discarded and left to suffer from the after-effects.

        You don’t have to dig very deep or go very back in the nation’s history to uncover numerous cases in which the government deliberately conducted secret experiments on an unsuspecting populace, making healthy people sick by spraying them with chemicals, injecting them with infectious diseases and exposing them to airborne toxins.

        Now this same government—which has taken every bit of technology sold to us as being in our best interests (GPS devices, surveillance, nonlethal weapons, etc.) and used it against us, to track, control and trap us—wants us to fall in line as it prepares to roll out COVID-19 vaccines that owe a great debt to the Pentagon’s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency for its past work on how to weaponize and defend against infectious diseases.

        The Trump Administration by way of the National Institute of Health awarded $22.8 million to seven corporations to develop artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, etc., with smart phone apps, wearable devices and software “that can identify and trace contacts of infected individuals, keep track of verified COVID-19 test results, and monitor the health status of infected and potentially infected individuals.”

        This is all part of Operation Warp Speed, which President Trump has likened to the Manhattan Project, a covert government effort spearheaded by the military to engineer and build the world’s first atomic bomb.

        There is every reason to tread cautiously.

        There is a sinister world beyond that which we perceive, one in which power players jockey for control over the one commodity that is a necessary ingredient for total domination: you.

        By you, I mean you the individual in all your singular humanness.

        Remaining singularly human and retaining your individuality and dominion over yourself—mind, body and soul—in the face of corporate and government technologies that aim to invade, intrude, monitor, manipulate and control us may be one of the greatest challenges before us.

        These COVID-19 vaccines, which rely on messenger RNA technology that influences everything from viruses to memory, are merely the tipping point.

        The groundwork being laid with these vaccines is a prologue to what will become the police state’s conquest of a new, relatively uncharted, frontier: inner space, specifically, the inner workings (genetic, biological, biometric, mental, emotional) of the human race.

        If you were unnerved by the rapid deterioration of privacy under the Surveillance State, prepare to be terrified by the surveillance matrix that will be ushered in on the heels of the government’s rollout of this COVID-19 vaccine.

        The term “matrix” was introduced into our cultural lexicon by the 1999 film The Matrix in which Neo, a computer programmer/hacker, awakens to the reality that humans have been enslaved by artificial intelligence and are being harvested for their bio-electrical energy.

        Hardwired to a neuro-interactive simulation of reality called the “Matrix,” humans are kept inactive and docile while robotic androids gather the electricity their bodies generate. In order for the machines who run the Matrix to maintain control, they impose what appears to be a perfect world for humans to keep them distracted, content, and submissive.

        Here’s the thing: Neo’s Matrix is not so far removed from our own technologically-hardwired worlds in which we’re increasingly beholden to corporate giants such as Google for powering so much of our lives. As journalist Ben Thompson explains:

        Google+ is about unifying all of Google’s services under a single log-in which can be tracked across the Internet on every site that serves Google ads, uses Google sign-in, or utilizes Google analytics. Every feature of Google+—or of YouTube, or Maps, or Gmail, or any other service—is a flytrap meant to ensure you are logged in and being logged by Google at all times.

        Everything we do is increasingly dependent on and, ultimately, controlled by our internet-connected, electronic devices. For example, in 2007, there were an estimated 10 million sensor devices connecting human utilized electronic devices (cell phones, laptops, etc.) to the Internet. By 2013, it had increased to 3.5 billion. By 2030, it is estimated to reach 100 trillion.

        Much, if not all, of our electronic devices will be connected to Google, a neural network that approximates a massive global brain.

        Google’s resources, beyond anything the world has ever seen, includes the huge data sets that result from one billion people using Google every single day and the Google knowledge graph “which consists of 800 million concepts and billions of relationships between them.”

        The end goal? The creation of a new “human” species, so to speak, and the NSA, the Pentagon and the “Matrix” of surveillance agencies are part of the plan. As William Binney, one of the highest-level whistleblowers to ever emerge from the NSA, said, “The ultimate goal of the NSA is total population control.”

        Mind you, this isn’t population control in the classic sense. It’s more about controlling the population through singularity, a marriage of sorts between machine and human beings in which artificial intelligence and the human brain will merge to form a superhuman mind.

        “Google will know the answer to your question before you have asked it,” predicts transhumanist scientist Ray Kurzweil. “It will have read every email you’ve ever written, every document, every idle thought you’ve ever tapped into a search-engine box. It will know you better than your intimate partner does. Better, perhaps, than even yourself.”

        The term “singularity”—that is, computers simulating human life itself—was coined years ago by mathematical geniuses Stanislaw Ulam and John von Neumann. “The ever accelerating progress of technology,” warned von Neumann, “gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue.”

        The plan is to develop a computer network that will exhibit intelligent behavior equivalent to or indistinguishable from that of human beings by 2029. And this goal is to have computers that will be “a billion times more powerful than all of the human brains on earth.”

        Neuralink, a brain-computer chip interface (BCI), paves the way for AI control of the human brain, at which point the disconnect between humans and AI-controlled computers will become blurred and human minds and computers will essentially become one and the same. “In the most severe scenario, hacking a Neuralink-like device could turn ‘hosts’ into programmable drone armies capable of doing anything their ‘master’ wanted,” writes Jason Lau for Forbes.

        Advances in neuroscience indicate that future behavior can be predicted based upon activity in certain portions of the brain, potentially creating a nightmare scenario in which government officials select certain segments of the population for more invasive surveillance or quarantine based solely upon their brain chemistry.

        Case in point: researchers at the Mind Research Center scanned the brains of thousands of prison inmates in order to track their brain chemistry and their behavior after release. In one experiment, researchers determined that inmates with lower levels of activity in the area of the brain associated with error processing allegedly had a higher likelihood of committing a crime within four years of being released from prison. While researchers have cautioned against using the results of their research as a method of predicting future crime, it will undoubtedly become a focus of study for government officials.

        There’s no limit to what can be accomplished—for good or ill—using brain-computer interfaces.

        Researchers at Duke University Medical Center have created a brain-to-brain interface between lab rats, which allows them to transfer information directly between brains. In one particular experiment, researchers trained a rat to perform a task where it would hit a lever when lit. The trained rat then had its brain connected to an untrained rat’s brain via electrodes. The untrained rat was then able to learn the trained rat’s behavior via electrical stimulation. This even worked over great distances using the Internet, with a lab rat in North Carolina guiding the actions of a lab rat in Brazil.

        Clearly, we are rapidly moving into the “posthuman era,” one in which humans will become a new type of being. “Technological devices,” writes journalist Marcelo Gleiser, “will be implanted in our heads and bodies, or used peripherally, like Google Glass, extending our senses and cognitive abilities.”

        Transhumanism—the fusing of machines and people—is here to stay and will continue to grow.

        In fact, as science and technology continue to advance, the ability to control humans will only increase. In 2014, for example, it was revealed that scientists have discovered how to deactivate that part of our brains that controls whether we are conscious or not. When researchers at George Washington University sent high frequency electrical signals to the claustrum—that thin sheet of neurons running between the left and right sides of the brain—their patients lost consciousness. Indeed, one patient started speaking more slowly until she became silent and still. When she regained consciousness, she had no memory of the event.

        Add to this the fact that increasingly humans will be implanted with microchips for such benign purposes as tracking children or as medical devices to assist with our health. Such devices “point to an uber-surveillance society that is Big Brother on the inside looking out,” warns Dr. Katina Michael. “Governments or large corporations would have the ability to track people’s actions and movements, categorize them into different socio-economic, political, racial, or consumer groups and ultimately even control them.”

        As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, control is the issue.

        In fact, Facebook and the Department of Defense are working to manipulate our behavior. In a 2012 study, Facebook tracked the emotional states of over 600,000 of its users. The goal of the study was to see if the emotions of users could be manipulated based upon whether they were fed positive or negative information in their news feeds. The conclusion of the study was that “emotional states can be transferred to others via emotional contagion, leading people to experience the same emotions without their awareness.”

        All of this indicates a new path forward for large corporations and government entities that want to achieve absolute social control. Instead of relying solely on marauding SWAT teams and full-fledged surveillance apparatuses, they will work to manipulate our emotions to keep us in lock step with the American police state.

        Now add this warp speed-deployed vaccine to that mix, with all of the associated unknown and fearsome possibilities for altering or controlling human epigenetics, and you start to see the perils inherent in blindly adopting emerging technologies without any restrictions in place to guard against technological tyranny and abuse.

        It’s one thing for the starship Enterprise to boldly go where no man has gone before, but even Mr. Spock recognized the dangers of a world dominated by AI. “Computers make excellent and efficient servants,” he observed in “The Ultimate Computer” episode of Star Trek, “but I have no wish to serve under them.”

      • Australia To Sign Military Pact With US Ally Japan Amid Spiraling China Tensions
        Australia To Sign Military Pact With US Ally Japan Amid Spiraling China Tensions

        Tyler Durden

        Wed, 12/02/2020 – 23:20

        Australia is using its formative military alliances as the only leverage it has in the worsening trade spat with China which has grown into a full-blown crisis for Aussie commodities exports.

        It also comes after Secretary of State Mike Pompeo traveled to India and southeast Asian countries last month seeking to shore up coordinated regional resistance against Chinese economic and military influence and hegemony.

        “Australia plans to sign a military exchange deal with U.S. ally Japan so troops from both sides could pool their firepower if needed to counter China, which has become enmeshed in disputes with Australia over the past two weeks,” reports state-funded Voice of America.

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        Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, right, and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison pose with documents during a signing ceremony at Suga’s official residence in Tokyo on Nov.17. Japan Today via AP

        “Both sides said after a senior-level meeting November 17 they would sign a reciprocal access agreement next year,” VOA continues. It would allow for each to train and operate from the other’s sovereign territory.

        The agreement is seen as greatly bolstering the common readiness of a loosened defense pact known as the Quad which has as its purpose information and intelligence coordination and cooperating on military exercises. India, Japan, Australia and the US formed the group in 2007.

        Assuming the deal when signed gets successfully approved by Japan’s parliament it would mark the first time since WWII that Tokyo formally and willingly approved of inviting foreign troops to operate on its soil. Previously Japan’s prime minister, Yoshihide Suga, said it would be toward the two regional militaries cooperation for “a free and open Indo-Pacific,” according to Kyodo news.

        Meanwhile a bizarre tweet from the US National Security Council after China slapped import taxes of up to 212.1% on Australian wines, which took effect last Saturday and has made Aussie wines basically unsellable in China:

        https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

        Weeks ago Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison flew to Tokyo to firm up details. He stated at the time that “Japan has a very special relationship with Australia.  It is not just an economic one, it is not just a trade one, it is not just a cultural and social one.  Importantly, it is a strategic one. We play a very important role together in working in the Southwest Pacific together.”

        China’s state media, which often reflects the internal government official statements of high Communist Party officials, condemned the deal, saying it “clearly targets China” and “further accelerates the confrontational atmosphere in the Asia-Pacific region.”   

        At the same time the US Navy’s Seventh Fleet, which is headquartered in Japan, has issued statements praising and welcoming the impending deal.

      • Winding Up Americans
        Winding Up Americans

        Tyler Durden

        Wed, 12/02/2020 – 23:00

        Authored by Jeff Thomas via InternationalMan.com,

        For the last four years, Americans have become increasingly polarised – divided between Democrat crusaders who are determined to save America from becoming a racist, sexist Nazi dictatorship under Donald Trump, versus Republican crusaders who are determined to save America from becoming a liberal Marxist state under a Democratic reign.

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        This fervour has become so extreme that families can no longer meet for the holidays without a conversational blow-up. No longer are people “entitled to their opinions.” This has become a crusade between Good and Evil. (“I’m good. You’re evil.”)

        The absurd nature of this dichotomy has reached the point that even Dr. Phil is increasing his viewership by featuring disputes between siblings who are on opposite sides of the political divide and are no longer speaking to each other.

        At this point, all that remains to be done by the networks would be to air a Red versus Blue television game show in which contestants compete with their own family members to “Win the White House.”

        Until November, the great majority of Americans appear to have been hoping that the November election would end this strife one way or the other.

        My take on this has been that the opposite would happen after 3rd November. The fireworks would increase exponentially after the election. The election would be hotly contested by whomever was the apparent loser.

        This should easily have been foreseen, as the media on the right have insisted for months that the Democrat encouragement for mail-in ballots was a precursor to election fraud.

        Similarly, the media on the left have insisted for months that Donald Trump’s suggestion that he may not accept the election results meant that he was planning a coup after he (presumably inevitably) lost the election.

        And now, the battle has been met.

        It’s been estimated that 93% of all Fox watchers are Republicans and 95% of MSNBC watchers are Democrats. Since neither side watches the other’s news programme, each side is cognizant of only its own team’s heavily slanted rhetoric.

        The conservative media is awash with details of voter fraud by Democrats, whilst the liberal media states with equal conviction that Mister Trump and his lawyers have provided no details whatever.

        Therefore, those who voted Republican will conclude by watching their own “unbiased” news channel that Democrats have tried to steal the election and thereby steal control of the country.

        And those who voted Democrat will conclude by watching their own “unbiased” news channel that Republicans have tried to steal the election and thereby steal control of the country.

        But how did this get to be so bad? Americans have not been so wound up – nor so polarised – since 1861, at the beginning of the Civil War.

        Indeed, the post-election fervour is as strong as though Fort Sumter had just been fired upon.

        More importantly, what will be the outcome?

        Will the courts rule against the claims of Mister Trump?

        If so, that decision will enrage an already angry right-wing crowd, refusing to vacate the White House and defending it against the pinko mob.

        Or will the courts rule in favour of Mister Trump?

        If so, that decision will unleash nationwide riots, intent on bringing down the evil dictator.

        Either way, we can anticipate that the US will be in flames. If for any reason the level of strife is insufficient, those with deep pockets will hire squads of shills as mercenary soldiers.

        The populace will be in terror. Republican voters will beg the federal government to bring in the troops to contain Antifa and the BLM mob.

        Democratic voters will beg the federal government to bring in the troops to quell the Republican militias.

        In such an upheaval, the one thing both sides will have in common is that they will both beg for the creation of a police state.

        And the federal government will answer that call. Martial law would be declared, possibly as a “temporary measure,” until normalcy has returned.

        But what if normalcy does not return? What if pockets of violence continue to pop up all over the map with regularity?

        If that occurs, martial law would need to continue for as long as it was deemed necessary, which would be likely to translate into a permanent police state.

        At one time, the media was for the most part impartial and benign, but in recent decades it has been bought out by four large corporations. And some of those corporations own and direct both liberal and conservative networks, which would seem to be at odds with each other.

        However, they are not. Today, the objective of the media is not to offer news. It is to create strife – to pit one half of the electorate against the other. In doing so, the ruling elite have the justification to lock down the entire USA under martial law.

        Once that has been accomplished, the elite may do as they please. As in all countries where a police state has been achieved – such as Nazi Germany, Mao’s China or Stalin’s Russia – once military control has been put into place nationwide, meaningful protest ends.

        In each of the above cases, the populace was whipped up into a frenzy of hate and violence against the Jews or the aristocracy or whatever other demon had been invented. But the real objective and the result were the subjugation of the populace.

        The American populace has been programmed like windup toys, with the ruling elite winding up the keys on their backs as tightly as they will go. When the levers are released, Americans will act dramatically and, in many cases, blindly.

        At this point, it’s not too late for people to stand back, take a deep breath and ask themselves if they’re not being conned into their own subjugation. But it would appear that they’ve been wound up so tightly that such objectivity is unlikely to occur.

        However, if they do not, they risk losing what remains of their once-proud democracy.

        *  *  *

        Economically, politically, and socially, the United States seems to be headed down a path that’s not only inconsistent with the founding principles of the country, but accelerating quickly toward boundless decay. In the years ahead, there will likely be much less stability of any kind. That’s exactly why New York Times bestselling author Doug Casey and his team just released an urgent new report titled Doug Casey’s Top 7 Predictions for the Raging 2020s.

        Click here to download the free PDF now.

      • Knoxville Embryo Reanimated After Quarter-Century On Ice For Record-Breaking Live Birth
        Knoxville Embryo Reanimated After Quarter-Century On Ice For Record-Breaking Live Birth

        Tyler Durden

        Wed, 12/02/2020 – 22:40

        A family in Knoxville, Tennessee is celebrating the birth of a baby girl – 27 years – almost to the day – after her embryo was frozen, according to WVLT.

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        The birth of Molly Everette Gibson broke a world record for the longest an embryo had been frozen before birth – a record previously held by Molly’s sister, Emma Wren Gibson.

        Molly was frozen on October 14, 1992, then thawed by National Embryo Donation Center Lab Director & Embryologist Carol Sommerfelt on February 10, 2020 and transferred to Tina’s uterus by NEDC President & Medical Director Dr. Jeffrey Keenan on February 12, 2020. –WVLT

        “I think this is proof positive that no embryo should ever be discarded, certainly not because it is ‘old!” said Dr. Keenan, adding “This is also a testament to the excellent embryology work of Carol Sommerfelt. She is perhaps the preeminent embryologist in the country when it comes to thawing frozen embryos. And of course, it’s a testament to how good God is, and to His infinite goodness and love.”

        According to the report, Molly and Emma are full genetic siblings.

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        “When Tina and Ben returned for their sibling transfer, I was thrilled that the remaining two embryos from the donor that resulted in Emma Wren’s birth survived the thaw and developed into two very good quality embryos for their transfer,” according to Sommerfelt. “It was even more thrilling to learn 11 days later that Tina was pregnant. I rejoiced with Tina and Ben as we all anxiously waited for the arrival of their second child … When Molly Everette was born on October 26, she was already 28 years old from the standpoint of the time the embryos had been frozen. This definitely reflects on the technology used all those years ago and its ability to preserve the embryos for future use under an indefinite time frame. It also shows the reason the NEDC mission is so important, giving all donated embryos the best chance for life.”

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        Located in Knoxville, the NEDC receives embryos from all over the United States, and serves couples seeking to become pregnant from all over the world.

      • The Real Source Of America's Frustrations
        The Real Source Of America’s Frustrations

        Tyler Durden

        Wed, 12/02/2020 – 22:20

        Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via The Daily Reckoning,

        It’s easy to lay America’s visible frustrations at the feet of Covid lockdowns or political polarization, but this conveniently ignores the real driver: systemic unfairness.

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        The status quo has been increasingly rigged to benefit insiders and elites as the powers of central banks and governments have picked the winners (cronies, insiders, cartels and monopolies) and shifted the losses and risks onto the losers (the rest of us).

        We now live in the world the 19th-century French economist Frédéric Bastiat so aptly described:

        “When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men in a society, over the course of time they create for themselves a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it.”

        Ours is a two-tier society and economy with a broken ladder of social mobility for those trying to reach the security of the technocrat class.

        As Bastiat observed, those rigging the system to benefit themselves always create a legal system that lets them off scot-free and a PR scheme that glorifies their predation as well-deserved rewards from their enormous appetite for hard work and innovation.

        Embezzling a couple billion dollars also earns you a get out of jail free card: none of the perps in Wall Street’s skims, scams and frauds ever gets indicted, much less convicted, and none of Wall Street’s legalized looters ever goes to prison.

        And this is a fair and just system? Uh, right.

        The Roulette Wheel Is Rigged

        Meanwhile, the reality is the roulette wheel is rigged, and only chumps believe it’s a fair game. Those who know it’s rigged have essentially zero agency (control/power) or capital to demand an unrigged game or finagle their way into the elite class doing the skimming.

        The net result is soaring frustration with a patently unfair system that’s touted as the fairest in the entire world.

        The key takeaway, in my view, is that the unfairness isn’t limited to the economy, society or politics —  it’s manifesting in all three realms. It isn’t just frustration with domestic issues — the global economic order is also a source of unfairness and powerlessness.

        These are the dynamics that are tearing apart our social cohesion and that will soon start destabilizing the economy — regardless of how much “money” the Federal Reserve prints.

        How divided is America?

        Two Americas

        There is a map, courtesy of the Brookings Institute, showing the roughly 500 counties Biden won and the roughly 2,500 counties Trump won.

        This might seem like a chart of political polarization, and superficially that’s clear, but the real polarization is economic-financial: there are two economies in America, and there’s very little commonality in the two economies.

        70% of America’s economy is generated in fewer than 500 counties; the other 2,500 counties are left with the remaining 30%.

        The nation’s productive capital is even more concentrated in a few hands and regions, and since income and political power flow to capital, the financial disparity/inequality far exceeds the 70/30 split depicted in the political map.

        Ownership of capital is concentrated in the hands of the top 10%, but the concentration is actually much more limited: the top 0.1% control so much wealth/capital that they “own” virtually all the power.

        I hope it’s not a big surprise that America is now a rigidly two-tier society and economy. If you’re an executive at a big Wall Street investment bank, you can rig markets or embezzle billions, and you’ll never face any personal legal consequences such as being indicted for fraud and being imprisoned.

        But try being an employee at a local credit union and embezzle $5,000 — a prison sentence is very predictable.

        If you’re one of the 500,000+ people busted for possessing cannabis in the U.S. every year, then you’re not rich and powerful, because when the spoiled-rotten child of the rich and powerful get busted, the charges are quietly dropped, or cut to a modest fine and a misdemeanor, etc.

        “Justice”

        “Justice” is for sale in the U.S., along with rigged markets, political power, healthcare and everything else. Why should we be surprised that the economy is also two-tiered?

        The lower tier of the U.S. economy has been decapitalized: debt has been substituted for capital. Capital only flows into the increasingly centralized top-tier, which owns and profits from the rising tide of debt that’s been keeping the second tier afloat for the past 20 years.

        The saying “follow the money” is only half-right — more importantly, follow the capital because income and power flow to capital. As a RAND report documents, $50 trillion has been siphoned from labor and the lower tier of the economy to the top-tier elites who own the vast majority of the capital.

        What’s missing from the political map is the staggering percentage of residents in the wealthiest 500 counties who are precariously living paycheck to paycheck, the ALICE Americans: Asset Limited, Income Constrained, Employed.

        Gand financialization has richly rewarded the top 0.1% and the top 5% technocrat class that serves the elites’ interests. These elites and their capital are concentrated in urban counties, and the feedback loops are self-reinforcing: the capital in the urban counties attracts more capital and talent (skilled labor), bleeding the other 2,500 counties of skilled labor and capital.

        Where’s the Leadership?

        America has no plan to reverse this destructive tide. Our leadership’s “plan” is benign neglect: just send a monthly stipend of bread and circuses to all the disempowered, decapitalized households, urban and rural, so they can stay out of trouble and not bother the elites’ continued pillaging.

        There’s a lot of big talk about rebuilding infrastructure and the Green New Deal, but our first question must always be: cui bono, to whose benefit?

        How much of the spending will actually be devoted to changing the rising imbalances between the haves and the have-nots, the ever-richer who profit from rising debt and the ever more decapitalized debt-serfs who are further impoverished by rising debt?

        People don’t want to just get by, they want an opportunity to acquire capital in all its forms, an opportunity to contribute to their communities, to make a difference, to earn respect and pride.

        That our “leadership” reckons bread and circuses is what the strip-mined bottom 90% want is beyond pathetic. How that plays out is anyone’s guess, but the pendulum swing to an extreme at the other end of the spectrum is already baked in.

        I just hope it doesn’t end in disaster.

      • LA County Mayor Says Not Wearing A Mask Is "Act Of Domestic Terrorism"
        LA County Mayor Says Not Wearing A Mask Is “Act Of Domestic Terrorism”

        Tyler Durden

        Wed, 12/02/2020 – 22:00

        A Los Angeles County public official was quoted by the Los Angeles Daily News as saying those who defy the public health order to wear a mask in public in response to the virus pandemic are guilty of an “act of domestic terrorism.”

        “If it were up to me, anybody not wearing a mask when they are out in public would be arrested … That’s an act of domestic terrorism and should be treated like one,” Lancaster, California, Mayor Rex Parris, recently said.

        Parris’ comment comes as his small town of 156,000, located in northern Los Angeles County, is in a county where cases on Monday recorded the worst day thus far of the COVID-19 pandemic. 

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        It’s perfectly understood for Parris to be frustrated considering the virus pandemic is ravaging the county, though equating non-compliant folks as domestic terrorism is absurd. 

        Parris’ attitude should come as no surprise to readers as the county; nevertheless, the state, has enforced strict restrictions in recent weeks. 

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        … so, by definition, California Governor Gavin Newsom is a domestic terrorist? 

        As a reminder to readers, a “revolutionary” study was published last week that demonstrates mask-wearing does very little to mitigate the spread of the virus.

      • "This Gives Some Hope" – Japanese Study Finds 98% Of COVID Patients Still Have Antibodies 6 Months Later
        “This Gives Some Hope” – Japanese Study Finds 98% Of COVID Patients Still Have Antibodies 6 Months Later

        Tyler Durden

        Wed, 12/02/2020 – 21:40

        In another example of how COVID-19 research has painted a complex, and sometimes conflicting, picture of the virus and the ability of the human immune system to fight it off, a team of researchers at Japan’s Yokohama City University published research showing that antibodies in COVID-19 patients persist for six months or more, even amid a preponderance of reports warning about the risk of reinfection for many particularly vulnerable patients.

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        A Japanese research team said Wednesday that it has detected neutralizing antibodies in 98% of people six months after they were infected with SARS-CoV-2. Another study performed in the UK found that antibodies found evidence that antibody levels start to degrade within six months.

        The team, led by Yokohama City University professor Takeharu Yamanaka, is already planning to conduct a follow-up study to see whether these people will still have such antibodies a year after their infections.

        But in the survey data released Wednesday, researcher checked blood samples from 376 people who had already recovered – the largest study of its type in Japan. The samples were collected six months after the patients were infected.

        According to a report on the study published by Nippon, Yamanaka said that “in general, people with neutralizing antibodies are believed to carry a low risk of reinfection…This gives some hope” for the effectiveness of the vaccines that are soon to be delivered to the public.

        As the west prepares to roll out the first wave of COVID-19 vaccinations, scientists will be watching closely for more data to try an ascertain whether COVID-19 can truly be defeated, or whether it might morph into a flu-like seasonal infection.

      • Russia Deploys Missiles To Islands Claimed By Japan After Tense US Navy Standoff
        Russia Deploys Missiles To Islands Claimed By Japan After Tense US Navy Standoff

        Tyler Durden

        Wed, 12/02/2020 – 21:20

        Last week there was a somewhat under-reported but major incident in the Sea of Japan wherein the Russian Navy formally charged a US destroyer with violating the sovereign waters of the Russian Federation. The incident involved a Russian warship ‘chasing’ the destroyer off while threating to ram the vessel. But the US denied that its USS John McCain violated Russian waters, noting that it doesn’t recognize the Kremlin’s expansionist interpretation of waters in and near Peter the Great Bay, where the encounter happened. 

        “We warn the US not to repeat the violation. We reserve the right to respond in the future,” a Russian Foreign Ministry statement vowed last Friday. The Kremlin’s latest dramatic announcement of a new missile deployment to the region appears related and by design meant to further the threat against the United States.

        “The Russian military on Tuesday announced the deployment of state-of-the-art air defense missiles to the Pacific islands claimed by Japan,” the Associated Press reports.

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        A settlement called Gorny on the island of Iturup, part of the Kuril Islands. Image source: TASS/Moscow Times

        “Russia’s Eastern Military District said in a statement that the S-300V4 air defense missile systems have entered combat duty on the Kuril Islands, adding punch to the shorter range Tor M2 missile systems deployed there earlier,” it details.

        Specifically the deployment is said to be on Iturup, which is among the four southernmost Kuril islands which the Soviet Union annexed during the final days of WWII. Japan, however, refers to them as part of its Northern Territories. The status of ownership of the islands, which Russia de facto currently controls, is still unresolved after 75 years following the Russo-Japanese war and as a treaty regarding their status is still being negotiated with President Putin. 

        The island has already been subject to military build-up with small operational bases, but the deployment of surface-to-air missiles is considered a major new provocation. There’s little doubt it’s in relation to the US Navy’s “freedom of navigation” operations in the area, which Russia says are intent on violating its maritime rights.

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        Meanwhile Japan’s Foreign Ministry has protested the new development, saying in a statement Wednesday: “We are constantly gathering information about the Russian military’s actions in the Northern Territories,” according to TASS. 

        “On December 1, the Japanese Embassy in Russia lodged a protest with the Russian Foreign Ministry, noting that such actions can reinforce Russian military capabilities and are incompatible with our country’s position on these islands,” the ministry said.

      • Biden's COVID "Supply Commander" Is Bad Medicine
        Biden’s COVID “Supply Commander” Is Bad Medicine

        Tyler Durden

        Wed, 12/02/2020 – 21:00

        Authored by Bradley Thomas via The Mises Institute,

        Included in his plans to fight the coronavirus, presumptive president-elect Joe Biden has pledged to appoint “a fully empowered supply commander in charge of filling in the gaps” in the production and supply of “essential” items needed to fight the virus.

        On his website, Biden elaborates on his plan, declaring that his “supply commander” would “take command of the national supply chain for essential equipment, medications, and protective gear.”

        This very Soviet-sounding position is necessary, Biden insists, because “We can no longer leave this to the private sector.”

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        Leaving aside Biden & Company’s laughable assertion that America’s medical industry reflects any sort of unfettered laissez-faire operation, his proposal for a centralized, command-driven medical “supply chain” under the direction of a government commander betrays a stunning ignorance of the complex and interconnected patterns of production and exchange that make up the economy.

        As George Mason University economist Don Boudreaux explained in an April 2020 article published by the American Institute for Economic Research, “The first reality is that, in our modern economy nearly every productive enterprise is connected to every other productive enterprise. This connectedness is the phenomenon alluded to by the term ‘supply chain.'”

        But this term, however, is “highly misleading,” Boudreaux wrote. “Today’s economy is not a series of supply chains running side by side with each other, each largely distinct from, and independent of, the others.”

        “Instead of a collection of distinct supply chains,” he continued, “our modern economy is a single globe-spanning web of interconnectedness. Within this web every output is the product of countless inputs and each kind of input typically is used to produce countless different kinds of outputs.”

        The complex nature of this process of deploying a dizzying array of scarce resources with alternative uses for use in different finished products does not occur in cleanly separated and hermetically sealed “supply chains.”

        “This web of interconnectedness—the complexity of which is beyond human comprehension—is indispensable for our modern mass prosperity. Yet its existence—its ‘everything-is-connected-in-some-way-to-everything-else’ reality—means that there are no objective and clear lines separating ‘critical supplies’ from ‘uncritical’ ones,” Boudreaux added.

        To help clarify the interconnectedness of our economy, Leonard Read’s classic 1958 essay “I, Pencil” can prove instructive.

        When asking what will be considered “essential equipment, medications, and protective gear,” we must further examine the inputs required to produce these items.

        Read highlighted how the pencil requires cedar wood from Oregon, which in turn requires saws and trucks and ropes to transport the raw wood to the sawmill in California, which itself requires steel for its equipment along with electricity, land, concrete, and countless other inputs. And that is just the tip of the iceberg for the wood. The lead itself, the rubber for the eraser, and the lacquer for the finish each likewise require many inputs from around the world, all necessary in order to complete the pencil.

        Now imagine just how complex the processes are for producing medications, medical equipment, and protective gear. And the inputs required to produce these items will also require other inputs. If we trace back the process far enough for items like medicine and medical equipment, the list of raw materials, capital goods, labor, etc. that need to be diverted from other uses, the list would become unfathomable—certainly so for any single “supply commander.”

        Moreover, not just the production process itself, but also the distribution and storage of such “essential” goods to hundreds of millions of people and healthcare workers across the nation will require substantial resources.

        Importantly, nearly every resource directed to the production and distribution of these “essential” items will have alternative uses for which they will no longer be available. The result is that the “supply chains” for each and every one of these alternative products and inputs will be impacted, for instance in the form of shortages or inflated prices.

        How many of these impacted items would also be considered “essential,” but for noncovid purposes? For instance, other lifesaving medicines or critical medical supplies, or food supplies? And to what degree?

        No central authority could possibly know this; indeed, the top-down “supply commander” model could end up doing more harm than good.

        Too often, progressives and other interventionists view an unhampered market as “chaos,” something needing to be reined in under the direction of a wise central planner, or “commander.””

        However, the impulse to default to centralizing economic decision-making over such a complex ecosystem as the economy is a threat not just to our liberty, but to our well-being. The need for market prices based on private property to freely function and efficiently direct scarce resources to where they are needed most becomes even more critical in times of emergency.

      • Americans Panic Bought Guns On Black Friday  
        Americans Panic Bought Guns On Black Friday  

        Tyler Durden

        Wed, 12/02/2020 – 20:40

        Americans panic bought guns during the Thanksgiving Day weekend, gun-related background checks on Black Friday posted the fourth-highest total on record, according to FBI data.  

        The National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) showed while 186,645 checks were completed the day after Thanksgiving, recording the fourth-highest total on record, it was down about 8% from 2019.  

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        Black Friday is usually one of the busiest days of the year for gun stores, but the rush to buy weapons and ammo was sparked earlier this year following the coronavirus pandemic, civil unrest, and the prospects of a Biden presidency – translating into more than 32 million background checks so far this year. 

        Internet searches for “black Friday gun sales” soared on Nov. 27. 

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        Searches for “gun sales” surged ahead of Nov. 27.

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        Last month, the National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF) released a report that indicated October saw the most gun purchases of any October on record.

        Mark Oliva, a spokesman for NSFF, told the Washington Free Beacon that Biden’s election performance triggered the last buying binge of weapons even after unprecedented demand surges in March and June. 

        “I think that people are looking at the Biden gun-control plan, at what he said he wants to do,” Oliva said. “People are concerned and they’re buying firearms and want to buy while they can still buy them.”

        He said Biden’s plan to ban weapons online sales and his gun-registration-and-tax-scheme had motivated buyers to purchase now and ask questions later. 

        While Americans flocked to brick-and-mortar guns stores on Black Friday, they avoided other retailers as visits to physical stores fell 52.1% from last year. 

      • The Attack Of The Watermelons
        The Attack Of The Watermelons

        Tyler Durden

        Wed, 12/02/2020 – 20:20

        Authored by James Rickards via The Daily Reckoning,

        It’s been said that some environmental activists are like watermelons – green on the outside, but red on the inside.
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        Red, meaning communism.

        That’s probably true in some cases, but I don’t want to tar the overall environmental movement. Most simply want a clean future that their kids and grandkids can live in. We all do.

        The wealthier a society becomes, the more it can afford to focus on issues like the environment. Much of the world is too busy trying to survive.

        In important respects, environmentalism is largely vanity. It’s the wealthy who obsess about it. But as you’ll see shortly, the science doesn’t support climate alarmism.

        In important respects, environmentalism is largely vanity. It’s the wealthy who obsess about it.

        The hue and cry to ban fossil fuels and end fracking is nonetheless in full swing. A Biden administration would only amplify it.

        A Climate “Czar”

        The Biden team has already named Establishment figure John Kerry its climate change “czar.”

        That’s fine, it’s mostly politics. The Democratic Party is committed to the politics of climate change.

        But once you ban fossil fuels (or make major strides in that direction), one is immediately confronted with the need for alternative sources of energy.

        The obvious choices are solar, hydroelectric, geothermal, wind and nuclear.

        To be clear, all of those alternatives involve proven technology. I have visited the Grand Coulee Dam on the Columbia River in Washington. It generates a lot of electricity.

        Meanwhile, I have a large solar panel array on the farm.

        My main residence is not far from the Seabrook Nuclear Power Plant in New Hampshire. All those systems avoid fossil fuels, but they work well and produce power.

        That’s not the issue. The issue is: Are these energy alternatives scalable, feasible and politically popular enough to power the United States?

        The short answer is no.

        Too Many Obstacles

        The Grand Coulee Dam is a monumental and inspiring work of engineering and construction genius. But, the idea of building new dams on rivers is environmentally objectionable and politically incorrect. The trend today is to remove existing dams, not build new ones.

        The same can be said for nuclear power. The move is toward closing and disassembling existing nuclear plants, not building new ones.

        Geothermal generation is feasible, but not scalable. That leaves wind and solar. The growth potential there is likewise limited for reasons explained below…

        A significant flaw in the solar power narrative is the idea of climate change and the increasing use of solar power as a non-carbon alternative.

        Climate Change Is Real, But…

        Don’t get me wrong, climate change is real.

        I lived on Long Island Sound for eleven years. It’s a beautiful body of water with a rocky shoreline on the Connecticut side. The reason it’s rocky is because it was a glacier in the last Ice Age, which ended about 11,700 years ago.

        Going from a glacier to a place you can swim is climate change. But, it took millennia. It did not happen in ten years.

        Climatology is one of the most complex and difficult branches of science. If ever there was a field that called for humility in forecasting, this is it.

        But the propaganda is relentless.

        Is the Earth Actually Cooling?

        Most serious scientists understand that the rhetoric and the data don’t match. Privately they say that the earth may not be warming right now; it may actually be cooling.

        They also say that the causes of any change probably have nothing to do with CO2 emissions, but are more likely related to solar cycles and possibly volcanic activity.

        The alarmism springs from climate models that reflect the biases of their programmers. They bear little relation to the actual record. There’s no scientific basis for the alarmism that elites and the media have been pushing.

        The legitimate science of climate change has been hijacked by globalists aided and abetted by contributors like George Soros and an army of paid-off scientific lackeys and corrupt journalists as a means to pursue global governance, global taxation and global regulation.

        I know that sounds conspiratorial. But if you follow the evidence, you’ll find that it’s legitimate.

        Clean Energy Means Dirty Energy

        At the end of the day, the idea that wind, solar and hydro energy are “carbon free” is nonsense.

        For example, Tesla electric vehicle batteries are charged using electricity from utilities that burn coal in many cases. Large wind generators are constructed of tubular steel and fiberglass, both of which are carbon intensive in their manufacture.

        Hydroelectric dams are massive construction projects involving square miles of excavation and millions of cubic yards of concrete with steel reinforcement. Solar panels are made using poisonous chemicals.

        These are not reasons to oppose these technologies. They are reasons to doubt the “carbon free” mantra of their supporters.

        I have practical experience with solar energy. I built the largest non-commercial off-grid solar panel array in New England on my farm there. I’m obviously not against solar.

        But a system like that is quite expensive and almost completely non-economic. My solar array is a lot more expensive than the local power company when all costs are considered.

        It’s true I get “free” electricity (if you ignore capital costs and occasional maintenance costs), but I won’t live long enough to recoup my investment relative to commercial electricity rates.

        Solar power is a “use it or lose it” energy source.

        If you’re not in a desert climate, good luck with the weather. Solar output drops to zero when the weather is rainy, snowy or even densely clouded. Oh, by the way, there’s no solar power at night.

        The reason I built the solar power system had to do with the possibility of the power grid going out. It was not about economics; it was about survival.

        Natural gas is carbon-based but is relatively cheap and clean. It’s a good alternative for those worried about carbon-emissions but not ready to embrace the Green New Deal.

        Green Energy: A Luxury Good

        “Green” energy is increasingly a luxury good in a world of cheap oil. It’s a luxury of the rich who can afford to endure its inefficiencies. It’s moral preening. But most people can’t afford its costs.

        I’m not saying that green energy is bogus or that it doesn’t have a future. It does. But right now it’s more of a niche than a mass market phenomena with high-growth potential. It’s essentially a fetish of the richer nations.

        Bottom line, be skeptical about the Green New Deal. And be wary of rich people who do push it. It’s a lot more about these people advertising their virtue than actual science.

      • US Offers $5 Million For Info On China's 'Flagrant' N.Korea Sanctions Violations
        US Offers $5 Million For Info On China’s ‘Flagrant’ N.Korea Sanctions Violations

        Tyler Durden

        Wed, 12/02/2020 – 20:00

        The Trump administration has with only weeks to go till Biden’s inauguration in January launched a new sanctions enforcement related initiative regarding North Korea that allows individuals or officials to report violations for a monetary reward.

        The State Department published its new website DPRKrewards.com on Tuesday which offers up to $5 million for specific information leading to the “disruption” of “persons engaged in certain activities that support North Korea.”

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        Via NK state media

        With such a large sum it appears they are certainly hoping to attract potential internal regime whistleblowers or even intentioned defectors. But the whole project is squarely aimed at Beijing as part of Trump’s pressure campaign.

        Upon unveiling the violations reporting website, the State Department blasted China for multiple major sanctions violations regarding the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, or DPRK. It was pointed out that China continues to host at least 20,000 North Korean workers in contravention of UN resolutions. 

        “Lifting sanctions and pumping more revenue into the DPRK while its missile and nuclear production facilities continue to hum is something we will never do,” a State Dept. official for North Korea said.

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        The statement described specifically:

        “The examples of this chronic failure are numerous, growing and worrying.”

        He said that US vessels provided information to Beijing 46 times since 2019 about North Korean fuel-smuggling in Chinese waters, and in the past year observed 555 cases of North Korean shipments of coal of other sanctioned exports to China.

        “On none of these occasions did the Chinese authorities act to stop these illicit imports. Not once,” the US official added.

        The new website identifies potential violations as including “…money laundering, exportation of luxury goods to North Korea, specified cyber-activity and actions that support WMD proliferation.

        This lashing out at China for its enabling and ‘looking the other way’ on North Korea comes as the Trump White House has promised to keep up the pressure on Beijing down to the last days before the presidential transition.

      • Post-George Floyd, A Wave Of "Anti-Racist" Teaching Sweeps K-12 Schools Targeting "Whiteness"
        Post-George Floyd, A Wave Of “Anti-Racist” Teaching Sweeps K-12 Schools Targeting “Whiteness”

        Tyler Durden

        Wed, 12/02/2020 – 19:40

        By John Murawski of RealClearInvestigations

        The notices to parents began arriving fast and furious in the weeks after the death of George Floyd in late May.

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        Megyn Kelly: The former Fox News anchor, who now has her own podcast, says she’s pulling her three kids from their New York City schools. “It’s out of control, on so many levels. They have gone off the deep end.”

        In dramatic, urgent language, K-12 schools across the country – both public and private – professed solidarity with Black Lives Matter and vowed to dismantle white supremacy, as they scrambled to introduce anti-racist courses and remake themselves into racism-free zones.

        The president of the Lower Merion School Board on Philadelphia’s affluent Main Line declared to families: “We need to eradicate white supremacy and heteropatriarchy in all of our institutions.”

        In Maine, a coastal public school district where 3.7% of the 2,100 students are African American or Hispanic, the superintendent declared war on “the intentional barriers white people have built to harm Black people.” The top administrator added: “We grieve for all of the Black lives taken by white supremacy.”

        Educators at the prestigious Brentwood College School in Los Angeles, have made more changes to the curriculum this year than any other in the private school’s nearly five decade history. Teachers are introducing critical race theory, which views U.S. history through the prism of racial conflict, and assigning readings from Ibram X. Kendi, the academic and author who contends race-neutral policies are the bulwark of the “White ethnostate.”

        As part of the makeover, Brentwood School leaders have rolled out a fresh theme this year for fifth graders: “Identity and Power.”

        “While some view these recent shifts as indoctrination, we see them as opportunities for engagement,” Brentwood’s head of school, Mike Riera, wrote to families this fall, acknowledging the growing resistance from some parents. “Will we overstep in some areas? Possibly. Will we understep in others? Possibly.”

        The nation’s K-12 schools have been incrementally adopting multiculturalism and ethnic studies for decades, but such courses have been the exception rather than the rule. This summer’s Black Lives Matter protests have sparked new level of commitment, a newfound urgency, and a new trend: anti-racist pedagogy.

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        Fabienne Doucet: “What’s really different now – and this has been decades in coming – is talking explicitly about whiteness,” the advocate says. “Sometimes you need to go too far to get there or else we might not go far enough.”

        If administrators deliver on their promises, the sweeping changes underway will introduce new courses, shift hiring priorities, rebalance student demographics, redirect stipends and scholarships, revise conduct standards – in many ways modeling K-12 educational philosophy on the social justice values endorsed by many universities and, increasingly, corporations.

        The changes come at an unprecedented time when many schools are struggling to offer basic instruction under covid restrictions.

        Fabienne Doucet, a New York University professor of early childhood education and urban education, said this momentum has been building for decades and the culture now appears primed to understand race in America from the moral perspective of the Black Lives Matter movement.

        “What’s really different now – and this has been decades in coming – is talking explicitly about whiteness,” Doucet said, citing a term that academics and activists use to critique the cultural, political and economic dominance exercised by Europeans and their descendants.

        Doucet, who’s on leave from NYU and working as a program officer at the William T. Grant Foundation in New York, acknowledged that some of the content of anti-racist pedagogy may seem militant to those hearing it for the first time. But, she said, it serves an important purpose: chronicling the nation’s history from all perspectives, even if those perspectives conflict with one another.

        “Sometimes you need to go too far to get there or else we might not go far enough,” Doucet said. “I’m less anxious about overshooting than not ever getting there because the stakes are so high.”

        The rapid and radical changes in public and private schools have triggered a backlash among some parents who find the anti-racist message to be anti-white and anti-American, and those who say it’s historically inaccurate, inflammatory and divisive.

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        From the website of No Left Turn in Education, which is seeking to mobilize parents around the country to reverse the woke juggernaut. 

        Parents are forming Instagram sites, and at least one group calling itself No Left Turn in Education is seeking to mobilize parents around the country to reverse the woke juggernaut. The parents swap examples from their schools, but many are keeping incognito for fear of being accused of racism or other repercussions; indeed, several parents interviewed for this article didn’t want their names to be used.

        Their concern is that the edgy, new educational materials indoctrinate pupils with identity politics and leftist ideology, and leave no room for discussion.  

        “They are using very positive words like diversity, equity and inclusivity to mislead you, but the message behind these words is horrifying,” said Elana Yaron Fishbein, a suburban Philadelphia mom who created the No Left Turn in Education organization. “They are grouping and stereotyping human beings by skin color, and they are attributing characteristics to your personality based on skin color.”

        Some parents say that immersing students in the concepts of white privilege, structural racism and whiteness should be balanced out with “viewpoint diversity.” They want their kids not only to be exposed to multiple perspectives but also to be able to freely critique anti-racist materials, and to form their own opinions

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        Elana Yaron Fishbein of No Left Turn in Education: “They are grouping and stereotyping human beings by skin color, and they are attributing characteristics to your personality based on skin color.”

        Jerome Eisenberg, a Los Angeles developer of apartments whose middle-school daughter attends the Brentwood School, said it’s irresponsible to introduce American history to uninformed students from the single perspective of race. 

        “It’s just wrong to present this [material] as true to children who have no other background in U.S. history,” Eisenberg said. “It causes me consternation that bright line American heroes like Jefferson and Lincoln are cast as bad guys.”

        Among the protesting parents: Megyn Kelly, the former Fox News anchor who now has her own podcast. On a recent episode, she said she was so put off by what she saw as a radical turn in K-12 education that she’s pulling her three kids from their schools in New York City.

        “It’s out of control, on so many levels,” Kelly said. “They have gone off the deep end.”

        She read from an article that she said was circulated among the school diversity group, which included Kelly and other parents, and was recommended by the group to be circulated to all the faculty.

        “I’m tired of White people reveling in their state-sanctioned depravity, snuffing out Black life with no consequences,” Kelly read, quoting a June piece by Nahliah Webber, the executive director of the Orleans Public Education Network. “They gleefully soak in their White-washed history that downplays the holocaust of Indigenous, Native peoples and Africans in the Americas. They happily believe their all-White spaces exist as a matter of personal effort and willingly use violence against Black bodies to keep those spaces white.”

        Advocates of anti-racist pedagogy say that the insistence on viewpoint diversity rings hollow to activists who have been trying to diversify the curriculum for decades.

        “How is it that when you’re talking about a Eurocentric curriculum, there isn’t this request that the story of Christopher Columbus be presented through multiple lenses?” said Julia Jordan-Zachery, the chair of the Africana Studies Department at the University of North Carolina, Charlotte. “It begs the question of why do we now insist on viewpoint diversity?”

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        Nahliah Webber, Orleans Public Education Network: “I’m tired of White people reveling in their state-sanctioned depravity, snuffing out Black life with no consequences. They gleefully soak in their White-washed history that downplays the holocaust of Indigenous, Native peoples and Africans in the Americas.”
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        Educators are overwhelmingly progressive on social justice issues. This summer the EdWeek Research Center found that 81% of the nation’s teachers, principals and district leaders support the Black Lives Matter movement, compared to 67% of the general population as surveyed separately by the Pew Research Center.  The American Federation of Teachers, the nation’s second-largest teachers’ labor union, was among the numerous professional educator organizations that issued a statement in support of Black Lives Matter in response to “the crisis of anti-Blackness.”

        The K-12 changes are already taking shape. Some institutions, such as Hopkins School in Connecticut and Princeton Day School in New Jersey, are segregating faculty and staff into “affinity groups” – such as Latinx or “White Consciousness” – while holding discussions about racism and white privilege. Others, such as Montgomery County Public Schools in Maryland, are spending nearly half-a-million dollars for “anti-racist system audits” conducted by outside consultants.

        The $46,300-a-year Hopkins School, the third oldest independent school in the United States, is revamping its courses “to incorporate a social justice lens, de-center Anglo-European voices,” focus instruction on race and identity, fund student activism and projects, and add a stand-alone course on social justice.

        Buffalo Public Schools, where whites account for 22% of enrolled students, this fall adopted Black Lives Matter-themed lessons plans that ask students in grades 2-4 if there are any similarities between the coronavirus epidemic today and the supposedly intentional spread of smallpox to the Native Americans, described as an 18th-century form of “biological warfare.” Middle and high schoolers are taught to think of Western justice as “punitive” and the justice meted out in traditional societies as “restorative/empathetic.” One of the included documents for instructors states: “All white people play a part in perpetuating systemic racism.”

        While some urban public school districts, including those in Chicago, New York City and Washington D.C., have been integrating social justice and anti-racism into their core curricula for years, at many schools administrators and teachers are new to the game and playing catch-up. To fill the need, professional educator organizations and advocacy groups are posting K-12 teaching materials online for teachers to use in their classrooms.

        The National Education Association, the nation’s largest labor union, has posted an entire page of BLM teaching resources, while Black Lives Matter is also disseminating educational materials.

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        From the National Black Lives Matter at School Week of Action Starter Kit

        Anti-racist materials present a mix of themes – an emphasis on liberation and resistance movements, critiques of whiteness and systemic racism that come from critical race theory, and an introduction to other social justice causes. At times, the readings and lessons can take an unapologetic, even confrontational, stance toward America’s past and present. But unlike Black History Month, there are few if any mentions of African Americans who defied the color barrier as athletes, artists, inventors, scientists or soldiers.

        The NEA teaching themes include Justice for George [Floyd] Day, Transgender Day of Remembrance, Globalism and Collective Value, Queer Organizing Behind the Scenes, Unapologetically Black Day and Student Activist Day. A link to social justice math used in Seattle Public Schools teaches data analysis and mathematical modeling through examples of police brutality and excessive use of force.

        “Racism is perpetuated by silence – and silence is complicity,” one NEA teacher instruction reads. “Being ‘colorblind’ often serves as a pretense to downplay the significance of race, deny the existence of racism, and erase the experience of students of color.”

        The BLM materials starting at the early childhood level are rooted in such guiding principles as empathy, loving engagement and diversity, as well as trans affirming, queer affirming and disrupting the Western nuclear family societal norm to celebrate extended families, nontraditional families and villages that “collective care for one another.” Elementary school activities introduce kids to community activism, the visual symbols of the LGBT movement, advocating for people with physical disabilities, and a creating a communal activism mural.

        An elementary school-level proposed activity called “Match the Action” teaches children to identify different forms of resistance: boycotts, protests, rallies, marches, sit-ins, walkouts, petitions, etc. A proposed activity for middle schoolers reads: “Think about the names of people who are no longer with us who you wish you could talk to. Activists, leaders, elders, people who have been murdered by police.”

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        Fatima Morrell: An “emancipation pedagogy” that empowers black pupils by “problematizing the Eurocentric perspective.”

        Fatima Morrell, an associate superintendent at Buffalo Public Schools, describes her district’s approach to education as an “emancipation pedagogy” that empowers black pupils by “problematizing the Eurocentric perspective” and by authentically representing the African American experience, which allows black students see themselves reflected in the curriculum and realize their human potential.

        Buffalo’s schools have been incorporating these concepts for the past five years, she said, but the introduction of Black Lives Matter-themed lessons this fall alarmed some parents. Morrell said she talked to concerned parents by phone, and Buffalo school officials held a virtual town hall via Zoom in September; school district officials plan to hold three more town halls to address concerns and explain changes to the curriculum, she said.

        Morrell, who oversees the district’s Office of Culturally & Linguistically Responsive Initiatives, said many parents wrongly assumed that Buffalo schools were advocating for defunding the police. Some of the parental anger, she said, came from a “historically dark place.”

        “When you teach from a black or brown voice about the legacy of enslavement, it has a very different tone and tenor,” Morrell explained during the Zoom virtual town hall. “One of the misconceptions is that this is about white hate, and it couldn’t be farther from the truth.”

        Buffalo students learn about the BLM movement, and focus on such themes as “I Love My Hair,” “Unapologetically Black,” “Understanding My Family’s History,” “What Is Community?” and “Mass Incarceration.” They learn about the late civil rights giant John Lewis and the concept of making a positive difference through protest and activism. And they complete a Jim Crow-era literacy test administered to black voters in Alabama.  

        They also learn about the concepts of racist, not racist, and antiracist, as defined by Kendi, who is quoted: “There is no neutrality in the racism struggle. … The claim of ‘not racist’ neutrality is a mask for racism.”

        One of the lessons for students in grades seven and eight, based on The New York Times’ 1619 Project, asks: “Why isn’t slavery considered/or included as a cause to the American Revolution? Possible Responses: our founding is pure/righteous, protect the narrative.”

        In grades 11 and 12, students are asked to pick an assignment for their final project. One option is to write a rap about police brutality, compose a poem on inequality, draft a prose piece on systemic racism, or “Create a collage on a poster board that connects to any specific example related to the Black/Brown Genocide.”

        This pedagogy runs counter to the educational philosophy of Ian Rowe, who has run single-sex charter schools in New York City for the past decade and is the co-founder of Vertex Partnership Academies, which is opening charter schools in the South Bronx in 2022 that will primarily attract black and Hispanic students.

        Rowe, who is also a resident fellow at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, said that anti-racist pedagogy glosses over inconvenient facts, like Africans’ role in the global slave trade, and promotes a defeatist philosophy fixated on racial oppression, subjugation and injustice.  

        “It taps into white guilt and black people’s sense that someone else is responsible for these problems that I have,” Rowe said. “The way this stuff plays out, if you are a low-income black kid, after a while you really start to believe it. You develop a very skewed version of the country, where you believe everyone is hostile to your efforts and that white supremacy is so strong that you don’t have the ability to control your own destiny.”

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        Jeff Porter: Urges white families in his Maine school district to open their minds and consider how they contribute to structures of oppression.

        Some of today’s most vocal converts to anti-racist pedagogy previously regarded the nation’s racial reckoning from the perspective of their whiteness, before they experienced an epiphany. That’s what happened to Jeff Porter, the superintendent of Maine School Administrative District #51, which serves the towns of Cumberland and North Yarmouth, after he went through mandatory diversity and equity training this past summer with an outside organization called Community Change, Inc.

        “I also recognize that some of the terminology may have felt confrontational, such as ‘white majority’ and ‘white supremacy,’” Porter wrote to parents this summer. “When I first went through training on this subject I was very much taken aback by this language as well and felt personally attacked as a racist.”

        Porter described himself as a “life-long Mainer” whose family’s farming roots in Aroostook County go back to his great-great-grandfather.

        “To think because I am white and have always lived here would mean that I somehow contribute to a ‘white supremecist’ [sic] culture was deeply troubling and insulting,” Porter wrote. “I had never before considered myself in this way.”

        But Porter urged the white families in the school district to open their minds and consider how they contribute to structures of oppression.

        “However, I now fully understand that this language is an accurate (and necessary) depiction of the long historical reality of race in this country, whether we want to accept it or not,” Porter declared. “The facts speak for themselves: America has a 400-year-old history of discrimination and oppression of African-Americans that must be acknowledged if we are ever to truly live up to the ideals to which our nation was founded.”

      • Defunding Police Backfires In Minneapolis As Shootings, Homicides, And Carjackings Surge
        Defunding Police Backfires In Minneapolis As Shootings, Homicides, And Carjackings Surge

        Tyler Durden

        Wed, 12/02/2020 – 19:20

        Minneapolis has transformed into an inner-city warzone in six months, just like Baltimore and Detroit, with violent crime surging to levels not seen in decades after millions of dollars in police budget cuts. 

        Minneapolis, or as some say, “Murderapolis,” has witnessed an explosion in homicides and carjacking this year as a severe shortage of police officers has resulted in dwindling patrols.

        Minneapolis City Council members defunded the Minneapolis Police Department (MPD) back in June, with council members on Monday planning to cut an additional $8 million in police funding and transfer it to other services, a move that could undermine public safety. 

        In November, more than 500 people were shot this year across the dangerous metro area, the most in 15 years, the local Star Tribune reported. Homicides have also erupted to levels not seen since the 1990s. 

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        Source: Star Tribune

        Minneapolis enjoyed years of falling crime rates, that all changed in May after the police killing of George Floyd, which triggered violent protests across the city and nationwide. Police data shows shootings and homicides jumped 64% this year compared with the four-year average. So far, 74 homicides have been recorded, the third-highest total in the city’s history.

        “The streak of violence since the summer stretched across the city, but as ever, Black and Latino neighborhoods have borne the brunt of the suffering. 

        The increase this year is mainly driven by an increase in the number of adult victims — especially Black men, who account for roughly 40% of all gunshot victims. But it’s young people who continue to make up a disproportionate share of the victims, and some of the suspects. Through Oct. 13, the last date for which reliable data are available, the number of young gunshot victims was up about 44% compared with the four-year average. The city has also recorded 22 fatal shootings of victims under age 25, twice as many as all of last year.” – Star Tribune 

        And while the pandemic has led to widespread job losses among the inner-city communities – the latest surge of violent crime, besides shootings and homicides, that is, violent carjackings has seen an unprecedented 537% surge in November over last year, the local Star Tribune pointed out in a separate report. 

        “The numbers are staggering,” a Minneapolis police spokesperson told the paper. “It defies all civility and any shred of common human decency.”

        Police have blamed the latest wave in carjackings on “small groups of marauding teens” but said adults had been arrested as well for the car theft. 

        As violent crime spirals out of control across the metro, Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey and Police Chief Medaria Arradondo have criticized City Council members for their move to defund police. 

        Frey called the latest plan by council members to defund the police “irresponsible and untenable,” adding that he supports alternative forms of policing in inner-city communities. He said slashing the number of officers on the street would be disastrous for public safety. 

        Who could have seen that coming?

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        And there it is, cutting police budgets appears to be backfiring for this liberal-run city.

      • Democratic Austin Mayor Urged Citizens "Not To Relax… Stay Home" While Vacationing In Cabo
        Democratic Austin Mayor Urged Citizens “Not To Relax… Stay Home” While Vacationing In Cabo

        Tyler Durden

        Wed, 12/02/2020 – 19:00

        George Orwell’s Animal Farm gave us the useful phrase “All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others.”

        That book was written as an allegorical warning against communism, but, as PJMedia’s Bryan Preston details below, since COVID struck Democrats tend to use it as a how-to.

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        The latest case in point is Austin Mayor Steve Adler. Back in November, he told Austin to stay home to stay safe. But he wasn’t at home at all when he said this.

        Statesman.com’s Tony Plohetski reports the details that in early November, as health officials warned of a impending COVID-19 spike, Austin Mayor Steve Adler hosted an outdoor wedding and reception with 20 guests for his daughter at a trendy hotel near downtown.

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        The next morning, Adler and seven other wedding attendees boarded a private jet bound for Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, where they vacationed for a week at a family timeshare.

        One night into the trip, Adler addressed Austin residents in a Facebook video:

        “We need to stay home if you can. This is not the time to relax. We are going to be looking really closely. … We may have to close things down if we are not careful.”

        In hosting the wedding and traveling internationally, Adler said he broke neither his own order or those established by Gov. Greg Abbott.

        But at the time, the city was recommending people not gather in groups of more than 10, and the day after Adler’s departure, Austin’s health authority warned that “it’s important that we drive the (COVID-19) numbers down in advance of Thanksgiving.”

        As he pressed the public to help stop the spread of the virus in recent weeks, Adler had not previously disclosed details of his private actions. He gave no indication in his Facebook video that he was outside the city as he discussed Austin’s rising number of cases and reviewed the number of hospital patients.

        In an interview this week with the American-Statesman, the mayor said he and his family put hours of consideration into how to hold an intimate event and vacation as safely as possible. He said he consulted with interim health director Dr. Mark Escott prior to the wedding at the Hotel St. Cecilia, just east of South Congress Avenue, and established rules to ensure guests’ safety. The 20 attendees had to undergo a rapid COVID-19 test and maintain social distancing, he said.

        Adler added that masks were distributed, although he acknowledged that guests were “probably not” wearing them all the time.

        “At that point, I am with my family group and people who just tested,” he said. “It is not perfect. Obviously, there are infections that could happen, but I think all of us should be minimizing risks as best we can.”

        In a media briefing the day after Adler’s party left for Cabo on Mexico’s Pacific coast, Escott told the public:

        “If you’re going out to a restaurant, go out with your family, the people who live in your household, not with family and friends outside your household and start to decrease those travels outside of your home that are not necessary.”

        A month later, City Hall insiders and political operatives have quietly started questioning the actions of Adler, a Democrat serving his second term, as officials across the country have been found breaking their own rules or recommendations.

        The situation underscores the greater-than-normal scrutiny on public officials during the pandemic as they issue public pleas for people to take coronavirus precautions and balance other demands in their personal lives.

        Political opponents often are standing guard to capitalize on any misstep or hint of hypocrisy.

        Adler has been involved heavily in the city’s COVID-19 response, taking what many considered a bold and politically risky step in March of canceling the South by Southwest Festival, a premier event and economic boon for the city, days before the first local cases were confirmed. He has appeared on national TV cable shows discussing the city’s measures to help stop the spread of the virus.

        Adler said his conduct is different from other officials because he did not behave in a way that was inconsistent with his message at the time. He added that his actions did not violate his regulations.

        “Everyday since March, I repeat that being home is the safest place for people to be,” Adler said in a statement Wednesday. “Only at our most trying moments, like around Thanksgiving, have I asked people not to travel as part of extra precautions. It is safest to stay home. However, we aren’t asking people to never venture out. We ask everyone to be as safe as possible when they do.”

        The rate of people testing positive in Austin was less than 4% but started climbing after Adler was in Mexico. New cases rose dramatically as Thanksgiving neared.

        Adler said his daughter wanted a much larger wedding but, due to the pandemic, downsized to mostly parents and siblings, some of whom flew into Austin. The event also included a Seattle-based wedding photographer.

        “She, like so many other brides, was having to make adjustments in order to stay compliant with the orders from the health director here in Austin and the orders I issued as mayor,” he said. “My daughter and my family are no exception.”

        Under Texas Department of Health guidelines, wedding planners are urged to hold events outside but are not subject to an occupancy limit. Indoor weddings must have a 75% occupancy cap.

        At the time, Austin was under Stage 3 recommendations, meaning that people should avoid gatherings of more than 10 people and only higher risk people were urged to avoid non-essential travel.

        Adler said the eight people with whom he traveled to Mexico operated as a “COVID pod,” meaning that they had all agreed to the same safety guidelines.

        “There was no recommendation for people not to travel during that period of time,” he said.

        “Someone could look at me and say, ‘He traveled.’ But what they could not say is that I traveled at a time when I was telling other people not to travel.”

        Adler said that he does not believe he took a test upon his return to Austin but “generally quarantined.”

        The U.S. in March limited inbound land crossings from Mexico to essential travel, but the prohibition did not prevent citizens from returning home. And while the U.S. outbreak has prompted many countries, including much of Europe, to ban American travelers, air travel to Mexico has been allowed during the pandemic, making it one of the few countries that has continued to allow American tourists without stringent restrictions.

        Days before Thanksgiving, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned Americans to “avoid all travel to Mexico” because of the spiking coronavirus infections.

        It seems, once again, that The Simpsons traveled in their time machine…

        PJMedia’s Bryan Preston  sums it all up perfectly: It’s leadership 101.

        Don’t ask your folks to do anything you’re not willing to do yourself. Set the example and then live it. Basic. But how many elected Democrats have thrown this whole idea out and violated their own edicts while also shutting down churches and businesses but leaving other similar but politically-approved crowd-magnets open, and also by the way shutting down schools not because the kids there are at risk, but because the teachers’ unions demand the schools be shut down?

        We’re gonna need a spreadsheet to keep track of all of ’em.

      • AI Just Solved A 50-Year-Old Mystery That Could "Dramatically" Change How We Fight Cancer
        AI Just Solved A 50-Year-Old Mystery That Could “Dramatically” Change How We Fight Cancer

        Tyler Durden

        Wed, 12/02/2020 – 18:40

        On the day our technological AI overlords decide to finally end the human race, we will be able to tout the feather in our cap that at one point they helped us solve some of the world’s toughest mysteries. 

        Such was the case with a science problem that the medical and scientific community has been struggling with for more than 5 decades. The problem of “mapping the three-dimensional shapes of the proteins that are responsible for diseases from cancer to Covid-19” appears to now have a solution – thanks to AI.

        Google’s Deepmind now says it has created a program called AlphaFold that can solve the mapping problems in “a matter of days”, according to a new report from The Independent. If it works as claimed, the solution will have arrived “decades” before it was expected, the piece notes. 

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        Of the 200 million known proteins, only a small amount are understood. The task of figuring out how each individual protein works is time consuming and expensive. This development could dramatically move our understanding forward further, and faster. 

        DeepMind claims that “AlphaFold determined the shape of around two-thirds of the proteins with accuracy comparable to laboratory experiments.”

        The 14th Community Wide Experiment on the Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction (CASP14) partnered with Google for the project. The group is comprised of scientists who have been working on a solution for protein mapping since 1994, more than 25 years. 

        Dr John Moult, chair of CASP14, commented: “Proteins are extremely complicated molecules, and their precise three-dimensional structure is key to the many roles they perform, for example the insulin that regulates sugar levels in our blood and the antibodies that help us fight infections.”

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        He continued: “Even tiny rearrangements of these vital molecules can have catastrophic effects on our health, so one of the most efficient ways to understand disease and find new treatments is to study the proteins involved. There are tens of thousands of human proteins and many billions in other species, including bacteria and viruses, but working out the shape of just one requires expensive equipment and can take years.”

        Nobel Laureate and Professor Venki Ramakrishnan said: “This computational work represents a stunning advance on the protein-folding problem, a 50-year-old grand challenge in biology. It has occurred decades before many people in the field would have predicted. It will be exciting to see the many ways in which it will fundamentally change biological research.”

        The next step will be submitting a paper detailing the findings for peer-review. 

      • Creator Of The Bond VIX: It All Comes Crashing Down After 2025
        Creator Of The Bond VIX: It All Comes Crashing Down After 2025

        Tyler Durden

        Wed, 12/02/2020 – 18:26

        By Harley Bassman, creator of the MOVE index, aka the “VIX for bonds”

        The lack of (CPI) inflation should not distract anyone from recognizing that our financial economy is presently overwhelmed by too much debt, both public and private; and it is beneath the cloak of systemic risk management that the Federal Reserve (FED) flipped on their printing press to support an alphabet soup of asset purchase programs.

        And while I do not begrudge most of the FEDs actions to offer relief from both the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) and the COVID pandemic, what we all must recognize is that the financial remediation of these two crises have pulled forward the day of reckoning for how to fund the promise of Social Security and Medicare for the retiring Baby Boomer demographic.

        The political game of “kick the can” for managing the two largest strands of our social safety net has reached an end; about a decade sooner than hoped. We are at a crossroads where one path is well trodden by financial history, and the other newly paved by an economic Pied Piper. But her siren song has been too sweet, and we are turning to the perfidy of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT).

        Here we consider the reason and consequence of this dangerous road.

        Only Congress can legally “spend” money (Fiscal Policy), and since they would not offer sufficient support in response to the GFC, the FED stepped in with (Monetary Policy) Large Scale Asset Purchases (LSAP), also known as Quantitative Easing (QE), as their most potent tool. These assets landed on the FED’s balance sheet.

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        While indeed much has changed over the past decade, sometimes to the point where facts do not exist, what has remained constant are the rules for double entry bookkeeping, where every asset must be paired with a liability.

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        Thus, the assets on the FED’s ledger are paid for by the creation of Money; an incongruity since by law the FED cannot “spend” money.

        A Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) and QE were supposed to be interim measures that would be reversed upon an economic recovery; a progression always followed in the past. However, FED attempts at normalization were thwarted by the 2013 bond “taper tantrum” and the late 2018 equity tizzy.

        The FED recognized that there are only two ways out of a debt crisis – either default or inflate with the caveat that inflation is simply a slow-motion default.

        Since the market would not allow the FED to reduce its balance sheet via asset sales (or even the slow bleed of letting bonds mature), the alternate solution was to create inflation as a way to reduce the value of debt.

        The FEDs dog-eared play book posited that if they increased the supply of Money (M2), and the economy held constant (Quantity), then Prices must rise (inflation) to keep the equation in balance.

        GDP = Money * Velocity = Price * Quantity

        Such a pity that Velocity collapsed, almost fully offsetting the increase (printing) of Money.

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        But do not toss out your economic textbooks just yet, as the seeming lack of inflation from the FEDs money-printing is a David Copperfield style illusion.

        While CPI inflation barely registers a pulse, asset inflation is rampant. The Case-Shiller Index of residential housing is up 63% from its December 2011 low, and is 23% above its previous peak in June 2006. Gold kissed 2000 in August, an alltime high. And, of course, the S&P 500 is a five-bagger from early 2009.

        Notice how much of our national wealth is held by the Top 1%. While a 3%-point increase over the previous peaks may seem small, let me assure you that 3% of a huge number is an extremely large number. Strangely, income distribution held steady. If FED  policies favored the wealthy, and their share of wealth increased, why did their share of income not rise in a similar fashion ?

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        Wealth concentration increased despite a static distribution of income because the affluent do not spend additional income. The Velocity of money declined because the dollars the FED created went into asset purchases instead of hourly wages where those funds would be recycled back into the economy.

        A recent FED study reported that nearly 40% of US households do not have cash on hand to cover a $400 emergency expense (car repair or broken appliance). Surely funds directed to these households would soon be spent (recycled). Velocity is a measure of recycled spending; financial asset purchases are static.

        I am loath to offer the topic of politics on these pages, if only because half my readers would soon use a hardcopy version for lining their bird cage.

        But as a public policy comment, middle-class citizens should be mad as hell that Government resources were directed at policies that widened the wealth gap. I will stipulate this was NOT the intention of the FED; and that Fiscal policies by both parties have been grossly insufficient.

        Thus, the trumpets have blared for the salve of Modern Monetary Theory.

        As a reminder, Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) advocates suggest that Governments that create their own fiat currency can borrow so long as there is spare capacity in the economy. In a nutshell, deficits do not matter until debt capacity is reached, which will be signaled by rising inflation.

        Never mind that nary an agency has created a predictive model for inflation; at best one can back test a few variables, but these models collapse in real time. Neither the FED, the CBO, nor the major Wall Street banks have successfully modeled inflation – as such, our policy makers will only dial back a debt binge after inflation occurs. This sort of risk management is akin to racing a car down a foggy lane and not hitting the brakes until after one slams into a tree.

        But MMT has arrived as a confluence of events are making economic demands on the Government that cannot be denied by a political class whose priority is reelection. The combination of a COVID support package, perhaps Millennial relief of college debt, and most important, the promise to Baby Boomers to fund Social Security (SS) will draw bipartisan votes in favor of a MMT-fiscal expansion.

        Let’s be clear, MMT was coming with or without COVID, no matter who was elected President, but recent events have accelerated the process.

        The high-end for a COVID relief package is tagged at $3Tn, and the notion of forgiving all college debt would cost $1.68Tn. But this is my bar bill at the club compared to the funding gap to support Social Security.

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        The chart above borrows from a scholarly report by James Moore, PhD. It shows the total US Treasury debt outstanding while the lines are the projected Social Security deficit. From the Social Security Trustees (SST), the orange line is their base-case while the gray line represents the SST’s high-risk scenario. Both were calculated using historical assumptions for interest rates, inflation, and economic growth.

        The red line is the result of using current market-based inputs for interest rates and inflation. Notice how this estimate was between the SSTs base-case and high-risk scenarios until 2010, but impact of the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) exploded the future liability.

        In case I was too coy, let’s link these thoughts. The US Government has run a cumulative deficit over the past 100 years of $22.7Tn; in contrast, to fully fund Social Security using current metrics would cost an additional $45.6Tn. Unless eligibility or benefits are significantly altered, some form of debt issuance that rhymes with MMT will be required.

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        The chart from the CBO offers a similar outlook as a percent of GDP. Notice the steep increase from 2030 to 2050 starts near 100% of GDP instead of closer to 40% of GDP before the GFC and COVID. These two events accelerated an already challenging decision process.

        Here is the main point: This past decade’s money printing was used to purchase assets; this next decade’s money printing will be used to fund an expansive Fiscal policy which will funnel money into the hands of people who will spend it. Thus, the Velocity of money will increase and produce inflation.

        By 2026 all of the Baby Boomers will qualify for Social Security, and the Millennials will be the largest voting cohort. Both will demand Fiscal support which can only be funded via MMT budgeted borrowing. The most prescient bond bulls (Lacy Hunt, David Rosenberg, Albert Edwards) have noted that the FED’s money creation has been a self-defeating process that may reduce rates further, with the caveat that direct monetization of fiscal spending could lead to inflation. In other words, direct funding the US Treasury.

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        This is a quibble that deserves a push. In the same way that one “borrows beer” at a party, having the Treasury wash their issuance through Wall Street dealers to the FED’s QE balance sheet is still “money printing”. The key difference is how those funds are used. Presently the FED’s asset purchases have coincided with reduced Velocity which dampened inflation; this will change when Fiscal money is directed toward those who will spend it upon receipt.

        Modern Monetary Theory is nonsense; the excessive creation of a fiat currency (eventually) leads to inflation. If it did not, I can assure you there would be a shelf of books detailing such miracles over the past five thousand years of recorded history. “Stop eating when you are fat” is not a healthy diet.

        Not to go native on you, but don’t you wonder why the Old Testament called for a trumpet to be sounded on the tenth day of the seventh month every 50 years for a Jubilee where all debts were cancelled ?

        While it may take longer than I expect for the final denouement, mark this as the moment our political class shirked their duty to make the hard decisions.

        Investment advice:

        Don’t panic (yet) as MMT will be terrific for the first number of years. There will be a “sugar high” as expansive Fiscal policy transfuses money to those who will spend it. Similar to how corporate earnings expanded with the 2017 tax cut, so too should earnings enjoy the tailwind from Fiscal support to those who tend to spend.

        College debt relief will initially increase retail sales, but will ultimately migrate towards home sales as this is the household formation demographic.

        Developed Market (DM) Equities should do well, especially when the dividend yield for most DM Indices exceeds their Central Bank controlled rate.

        I love Mortgage REITs despite a nice rally; their dividend yield is still ~9%. This payout should be stable if the FED keeps its promise of ZIRP until 2023.

        Other ways of riding the FEDs rate suppression coattails can be sourced via well-managed BDCs and Muni CEFs that employ financial leverage. For CEFs, pay particular attention to the Undistributed Net Investment Income (UNII) as a deficit here usually presages a distribution cut.

        I think it’s “safe in the pool” until 2023-25, then it will be adult swim only. This is why I own long-dated options to protect against rising interest rates – a product outlined in “Pigs Can Fly” – January 28, 2020, and I will detail again soon.

        “If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it…the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie.” – Joseph Goebbels

        You know my rejoinder: “It’s never different this time.”

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