• A World No Longer Shaped By Atlantic Powers
  A World No Longer Shaped By Atlantic Powers

  Authored by M.K.Bhadrakumar via Counterpunch.org,

  The annual Munich Security Conference that took place February 14-16 this year turned out to be an iconic event, drawing comparison with the one held in the same Bavarian city on February 10, 2007, where in a prophetic speech Russian President Vladimir Putin had criticized the world order characterized by the United States’ global hegemony and its “almost uncontained hyper use of force – military force – in international relations.”

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  If Putin’s 2007 Munich speech was prescient about an incoming new Cold War and the surge of tensions in Russia’s relations with the West, 13 years later, at the event this year, we witnessed that the transatlantic ties that evolved through the two world wars in the last century and blossomed into a full-fledged alliance system have reached a crossroads.

  Deep cracks have appeared in the transatlantic relationship. In an extraordinary opening address, German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, an éminence grise in European diplomacy, accused Washington of rejecting “the very concept of an international community.”

  Steinmeier acknowledged that there is no return to the halcyon days of close transatlantic partnership, as Europe and the U.S. are drifting away from each other. He warned, “If the European project fails, the lessons of German history, but perhaps also European history, will be called into question.”

  Having said that, Steinmeier did not advocate that Europe could go it alone, either. Rather, “only a Europe that can and wants to protect itself credibly will be able to keep the U.S. in the alliance.”

  But he regretted that “Europe is no longer as vital to the U.S. as it used to be. We must guard against the illusion that the United States’ dwindling interest in Europe is solely down to the current administration… For we know that this shift began a while ago, and it will continue even after this administration.”

  The theme of European independence—Europe becoming a sovereign, strategic and political power—was also the leitmotif of a speech by French President Emmanuel Macron who brought a rare dynamism into the European debate, fighting spiritedly for a common European foreign and security policy. The German policymakers have signaled broad agreement with Macron’s idea that Europe must take charge of its own destiny.

  In contrast, the U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had earlier insisted that the talk about the demise of the West is “grossly exaggerated,” and, in fact, “the West is winning. We are collectively winning. We are doing it together.”

  Meanwhile, two subplots that kept appearing in the discussions were, one, the continued relevance of multilateralism in the international system and, two, deep anxiety over the current global security environment.

  Steinmeier framed the concerns sharply, saying, “the idea of international community is not outmoded,” adding that “withdrawing into our national shells leads us into a dead end, into a truly dark age.”

  All in all, these sharp exchanges between the Europeans and some of the American delegation confirmed, more than ever, the weakness and disunity of the West. A Politico report on the Munich Security Conference noted, “The two sides aren’t just far apart on the big questions facing the West (threats from Russia, Iran, China), they’re in parallel universes.”

  One major issue that divided Munich was China. Neither Pompeo nor Defense Secretary Mark Esper left any doubt that Washington considers China to be a nefarious force in the world, representing a significant long-term threat. But that view is not shared by many countries in the EU. The underlying question is what posture the Western alliance should take toward China, which is a fundamental one with far-reaching consequences. Europe is deeply worried about the consequences that spurning Beijing would have on trade and investment.

  It became apparent at the conference that there was no acceptance of Pompeo’s plea that China is the new enemy. His cautioning against the involvement of the Chinese tech company Huawei in the upcoming 5G rollout met with stony silence by European allies. The policy toward China could emerge as the biggest transatlantic divide.

  Can the West regain its influence? The crux of the matter is that with the decline in material wealth and the decay of moral values, the capacity to influence has shrunk. And the West’s form of economic organization is no longer as appealing as it once was. Also, with the rise of China, rapid development of India, and the resurgence of Russia, a new dynamic of global power is taking shape.

  As these and other emerging powers grow in strength, a dispersion of power and influence is bound to accelerate, and the West is unlikely to regain the preponderant influence it wielded in the post-World War II era.

  This drain of influence might slow down if only a “new West” led by Europe that combined power and values reached out to powers such as India or Japan to build global alliances. But a major lacuna lies in the United States’ contempt of multilateralism and a rules-based order.

  Equally, Washington’s push for trade-offs to advance its unilateral confrontations—be it with Russia and China or Iran and Venezuela—fails to strike a chord with its top Western partners, the majority of whom are averse to any form of confrontation, least of all with Beijing.

  “We cannot be the United States’ junior partner,” said Macron, citing recent failures in the West’s policy of defiance. Clearly, internal divisions afflict the West, and it is hard to see how they can be overcome.

  At best, coalitions of the willing may appear within and among the Western states on specific issues. But even then, the West can at best slow down its relative decline but nowhere near reverse it.

  The heart of the matter is that the economic center of gravity in the world order and the ensuing global power equation is inexorably shifting away from the West, while on the other hand, there is no longer a “West” that is united behind principles, values, and policies.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 03/06/2020 – 00:05

• Minimum-Wage Blowback – Fast Food Burger-Flipping Robot Works For $3 An Hour
  Minimum-Wage Blowback – Fast Food Burger-Flipping Robot Works For $3 An Hour

  Over the years, we’ve documented the proliferation of artificial intelligence and robots in the workplace would lead to a tidal wave of job losses through 2030. 

  What peaked our attention several years ago was Miso Robotics, a Pasadena tech company with the focus of developing robots for fast-food restaurants, has seen the price of its burger-flipping robot drop from $100,000 to $10,000 in four years. 

  “Off-the-shelf robot arms had plunged in price in recent years, from more than $100,000 in 2016, when Miso Robotics first launched, to less than $10,000 today, with cheaper models coming in the near future,” according to the Los Angeles Times. 

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  The burger-flipping robot is now more cost-effective than the average low-skilled employee, which means Miso’s unveiling of a subscription plan for restaurants, of just $2,000 a month, with the choice of a robot that works either the grille or fryer, could be very appealing to restaurant owners or managers across the country who need to drive down labor costs. 

  “As a result, Miso can offer Flippys to fast-food restaurant owners for an estimated $2,000 per month on a subscription basis, breaking down to about $3 per hour. (The actual cost will depend on customers’ specific needs). A human doing the same job costs $4,000 to $10,000 or more a month, depending on a restaurant’s hours and the local minimum wage. And robots never call in sick,” LA Times adds.

  Americans could soon see Flippy or a variant of the robot at a mom and pop restaurant or a major fast-food chain in the early 2020s, the affordability of these robots will entice restaurant operators to drive down labor costs. 

  On a much broader perspective, Karen Harris, Managing Director of Bain & Company’s Macro Trends Group, presented a fascinating report several years ago titled “Labor 2030: The Collision of Demographics, Automation, and Inequality,” which outlines how automation could eliminate upwards of 40 million jobs by the end of this decade.

  Millions of Americans are employed in the fast-food industry; the proliferation of automation could lead to a rapid increase in job losses through the mid to late 2020s. The labor market could see major disruptions from robots in the years ahead, it’s expected this trend could force the government to have the Federal Reserve finance People’s Quantitative Easing, in the form of universal income, etc. 

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 03/05/2020 – 23:45

• Will The Coronavirus Topple China's One-Party Regime?
  Will The Coronavirus Topple China’s One-Party Regime?

  Authored by Minxin Pei via Project Syndicate,

  It may seem preposterous to suggest that the outbreak of the new coronavirus, COVID-19, has imperiled the rule of the Communist Party of China (CPC), especially at a time when the government’s aggressive containment efforts seem to be working. But it would be a mistake to underestimate the political implications of China’s biggest public-health crisis in recent history.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  According to a New York Times analysis, at least 760 million Chinese, or more than half the country’s population, are under varying degrees of residential lockdown. This has had serious individual and aggregate consequences, from a young boy remaining home alone for days after witnessing his grandfather’s death to a significant economic slowdown. But it seems to have contributed to a dramatic fall in new infections outside Wuhan, where the outbreak began, to low single digits.

  Even as China’s leaders tout their progress in containing the virus, they are showing signs of stress. Like elites in other autocracies, they feel the most politically vulnerable during crises. They know that, when popular fear and frustration is elevated, even minor missteps could cost them dearly and lead to severe challenges to their power.

  And “frustration” is putting it mildly. The Chinese public is well and truly outraged over the authorities’ early efforts to suppress information about the new virus, including the fact that it can be transmitted among humans. Nowhere was this more apparent than in the uproar over the February 7 announcement that the Wuhan-based doctor Li Wenliang, whom the local authorities accused of “rumor-mongering” when he attempted to warn his colleagues about the coronavirus back in December, had died of it.

  With China’s censorship apparatus temporarily weakened – probably because censors had not received clear instructions on how to handle such stories – even official newspapers printed the news of Li’s death on their front pages. And business leaders, a typically apolitical group, have denounced the conduct of the Wuhan authorities and demanded accountability.

  There is no doubt that the authorities’ initial mishandling of the outbreak is what enabled it to spread so widely, with health-care professionals – more than 3,000 of whom have been infected so far – being hit particularly hard. And despite the central government’s attempts to scapegoat local authorities – many health officials in Hubei province have been fired – there are likely to be more questions about what Chinese President Xi Jinping knew.

  Not surprisingly, Xi has been working hard to repair his image as a strong and competent leader. After the central government ordered the lockdown of Wuhan in late January, Xi appointed Premier Li Keqiang to lead the coronavirus task force. But the fact that it was Li, not Xi, who went to Wuhan seemed to send the wrong message, as Xi realized in the subsequent days.

  On February 3, at a Politburo Standing Committee meeting, Xi took an unusually defensive tone in a speech that smacked of damage control. While Xi admitted that he had learned of the outbreak before he sounded the alarm, he emphasized his personal role in leading the fight against the virus.

  Moreover, on February 10, Xi made a series of public appearances in Beijing, aimed at reinforcing the impression that he is firmly in command. Three days later, he sacked the party chiefs of Hubei province and Wuhan municipality for their inadequate handling of the crisis. And two days after that, in an unprecedented move, the CPC released the full text of Xi’s internal Politburo Standing Committee speech.

  Though Xi has apparently regained his aura as a dominant leader – not least thanks to CPC propagandists, who are working overtime to restore his image – the political fallout is likely to be serious. The profound uproar that marked those fleeting moments of relative cyber-freedom – the two weeks, from late January through early February, when censors lost their grip on the popular narrative – should be deeply worrying to the CPC.

  Indeed, the CPC may be highly adept at repressing dissent, but repression is not eradication. Even a momentary lapse can unleash bottled-up anti-regime sentiment. One shudders to think what might happen to the CPC’s hold on power if Chinese were able to speak freely for a few months, not just a couple of weeks.

  The most consequential political upshot of the COVID-19 outbreak may well be the erosion of support for the CPC among China’s urban middle class. Not only have their lives been severely disrupted by the epidemic and response; they have been made acutely aware of just how helpless they are under a regime that prizes secrecy and its own power over public health and welfare.

  In the post-Mao era, the Chinese people and the CPC have adhered to an implicit social contract: the people tolerate the party’s political monopoly, as long as the party delivers sufficient economic progress and adequate governance.

  The CPC’s poor handling of the COVID-19 outbreak threatens this tacit pact. In this sense, China’s one-party regime may well be in a more precarious position than it realizes.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 03/05/2020 – 23:25

• Army Doubles Purchase Of New Sniper Rifle 
  Army Doubles Purchase Of New Sniper Rifle 

  Flushed with cash, the Pentagon is doubling its purchase of a new anti-personnel precision rifle.

  Task & Purpose reviewed the Department of Defense Fiscal Year (FY) 2021 Budget Estimates document and found the Army is purchasing 536 Precision Sniper Rifles (PSR), nearly doubling its original order of about 357.

  Alton Stewart, a spokesman for the Army’s Program Executive Offices (PEO), said the PSR would replace M107 and M2010 Enhanced Sniper Rifle.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  The Tennessee-made PSR, which is produced by Barrett Firearms Manufacturing, is a bolt-action Multi-Role Adaptive Design (MRAD) system and called the Mk 22, which will be chambered in 7.62×51 mm NATO round. The PSR is the next generation of sniper rifles, and it’s lightweight, more accurate, and more reliable than legacy systems. 

  Task & Purpose said, “the PSR provides the increased probability of hit over the current M2010 [Enhanced Sniper Rifle] configuration at distances up to twelve-hundred (1200) meters and increases range out to fifteen-hundred (1500), which enhances the sniper role in supporting combat operations and improves sniper survivability.”

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Army budget documents also said the PSR would include a silencer, thermals, and other advanced optics that will “allow snipers, when supplemented with a clip-on image intensifier or thermal sensor system, to effectively engage enemy snipers, as well as crew-served and indirect fire weapons virtually undetected in any light condition.” 

  Between fiscal years 2022 and 2025, the Army expects to have 1,516 PSR systems in the field. By 2025, it expects to have an estimated 2,545 at an estimated total cost of $45.5 million. 

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  It’s not just sniper rifles the Army is considering for upgrade. We noted last Sept that the service selected AAI Corporation Textron Systems, General Dynamics Ordnance, and Sig Sauer as the three finalists to test their next-generation assault rifles for the next 27 months. 

  The Army requested all three manufacturers to each supply 53 rifles, 43 automatic rifles, and 850,000 rounds of ammunition for the 27-month test that will conclude in 1H22 with a winning design. 

  Here’s what AAI Corporation Textron Systems’ next-generation assault rifle looks like: 

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  President Trump is rebuilding the military ahead of the next major conflict. 

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 03/05/2020 – 23:05

• "We Have Never Seen This Before": The Last Time The Market Did This, FDR Confiscated All The Gold
  “We Have Never Seen This Before”: The Last Time The Market Did This, FDR Confiscated All The Gold

  To say that moves in the US stock market have been erratic in the past two weeks would be a prodigious understatement: with the Dow Jones swinging by over 1,000 points on nearly 5 occasions in the past two weeks (today’s 970 point move would have been the fifth)…

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  … traders – holding on for dear life in a market rollercoaster the likes of which have not been seen in years – have given up trying to make sense, and are just praying they don’t lose all their money. “When you have a 4.5% up day in the market and a 2% down day – what does that mean?” Kathryn Kaminski of AlphaSimplex Group told Bloomberg. “It just means we don’t know what’s going on.”

  And while futures continue to slide amid a surge in US coronavirus cases late on Thursday with over 2,000 New Yorkers now having self-quarantined, and emboldening what little is left of the bears – recall that heading into this week, single stock/ETF short interest was at all time lows…

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  … the bulls, who are rapidly losing faith that even the Fed can prop up this market, are pointing to the recent dramatic rebounds in the stocks most recently on Wednesday when the S&P500 surged back above 3,124 (it is now trading well below 2,990), yet which nobody can fully explain because even though there are several catalysts for the rebound that one could point to, historically speaking none of them are entirely satisfying as explanations, and as Nomura’s Masanari Takada writes in his daily Nomura quant note, “we suspect that more than a few investors (whether bearish or bullish) are feeling paralyzed in the face of such unusual swings in the market.”

  However, it is what he says next that struck us as a stark admission that we have crossed the rubicon into a market that nobody, not even grizzled quant veterans, can explain: “We have also been at a loss to predict the market’s movements, and feel painfully reminded of the difficulties involved in drawing a story from nothing more than day-today changes in the market.”

  And the punchline: “Even so, what is happening now is like nothing we have seen before.”

  To be sure, here one can counter that maybe “we” simply haven’t been around long enough, and one just needs to extend the time horizon to observe a similar market to the one we have today. And so, indeed, without wandering too far off into the weeds, Nomura picks up on something we highlighted last week, namely that the market’s drawdown to a 10% correction from an all-time high was the fastest since just weeks before the great depression started…

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  … and observes that there have been only 65 occasions since 1900 in which the DJIA has recorded a daily loss in excess of three standard deviations over the average daily return only to log a gain in excess of three standard deviations on the following trading day, and 70% of those occasions were concentrated in the 1900-1950 span, as happened this week on Tuesday and Wednesday (3 and 4 March), and 70% of those occasions were concentrated in the 1900-1950 span. In percentage terms, this is a frequency of just 0.21%.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  The last time this happened (14 January 2019), the market enjoyed a sustained rally, but the time prior to that (11 August 2011), no such rally ensued. Figure 2 is a plot of the average pattern followed by the market after each of these occasions, using the full sample of 65 instances between 1900 and 2019.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Yet while recent events are an extreme rarity across the entire historical spectrum, there is one distinct point in time when we observe cluster of activity similar to the furious market action noted in recent days (something tells us readers can already figure out which period we are talking about).

  But before we get there, Takada writes that “it may be instructive to split this long span of time into two blocks (1900- 1950 and 1951-2019), as the impact of the Great Depression and the two world wars can be cordoned off in the 1900-1950 block. Even when back-testing the data in this fashion, however, we find no evidence that a gain in excess of three standard deviations on the day after a loss in excess of three standard deviations necessarily indicates that a bottom has been marked.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  However, where the current market gyrations get even more interesting, is that this time the market logged a gain in excess of three standard deviations (over the average daily return), then a loss in excess of three standard deviations, and then a gain in excess of three standard deviations over the course of three consecutive trading days. This is only the sixth time this phenomenon has occurred since 1900.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  And here is the stunning punchline: out of the five historical instances of this pattern (leaving out the present case for obvious reasons), Nomura finds that the only instance that was followed by a sustained market rally was that of April 1933, when the US abandoned the gold standard in the midst of the Great Depression.

  Which makes sense: with stocks in freefall for years after the Great Depression started, what some argue stopped the collapse, was the signing of Executive Order 6102 by FDR, which not only ended the gold standard, but also confiscated all gold held by the public, and finally devalued the dollar against gold (Roosevelt changed the statutory price of gold from $20.67 to $35 per ounce, thereby devaluing the U.S. dollar by 40%). Such a historic fiat devaluation against gold was, to many historians, the necessary condition that finally let stocks find a bottom during the great depression, and started the long and painful recovery… the culminated with World War II.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Of course, conditions now are vastly different than they were at the time of each of the five prior instances, with the dollar long ago losing its convertibility into gold (thank Nixon for that) – yet while it would be next to impossible to confiscate gold, a massive dollar devaluation against the yellow metal may be just what the Fed is planning next (as Harley Bassman suggested in 2016) – so Nomura’s dissection of these market patterns is intended only as something that may be of interest from a technical standpoint. That said, this look back at 120 years of market history may be helpful to market observers attempting to assess the sustainability of the rally in US equities…

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  … and also to spark some thoughts about what events may be necessary to halt the ongoing collapse in risk assets. Our advice: for those who own gold, now is a good time to have an unfortunate boating accident.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 03/05/2020 – 22:47

• Ilhan Omar Tweets "Abortion Is A Constitutional Right", Accuses Two Supremes Of Being "Sexual Predators"
  Ilhan Omar Tweets “Abortion Is A Constitutional Right”, Accuses Two Supremes Of Being “Sexual Predators”

  A day after Senate Minority Leader threatened the Supreme Court (and later apologized for his language), none other than Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-MN, took to Twitter with some very accusatory Tweets.

  She suggested two SCOTUS Judges of being “accused sexual predators” and then stated that abortion was a Constitutional right.

  Two accused sexual predators should not be deciding whether or not women have access to healthcare in this country. https://t.co/okJE85pwoN

  — Rep. Ilhan Omar (@Ilhan) March 4, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  “Two accused sexual predators should not be deciding whether or not women have access to healthcare in this country,” she said.

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  She is allegedly referring to unproven and false claims against Justices Brett Kavanaugh and Clarence Thomas. Her statements were met with backlash from people around the country.

  There’s more evidence that you married your brother to commit immigration fraud than there is for your false claims about Supreme Court Justices.

  — Tim Young (@TimRunsHisMouth) March 4, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Moreover, as Sara Carter notes, Omar’s tweet that “Abortion is a Constitutional right” was also met with a slew of negative commentary.

  Just look at some of the responses from people around the country to Omar’s Tweets below.

  Ilhan, again, I’m asking you to direct me to Chapter and Verse in the U.S. Constitution, where the Founding Fathers wrote this so called “right” please show me so I can read it myself…..I’m waiting

  — Shadowbanned (@clamsroll) March 5, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “Right to life…” is in the Constitution, so, abortion is pretty much the OPPOSITE of constitutional.
  Maybe a Civics class or two would help with your glaring lack of knowledge about our nation’s rights.

  — Susan [Needs a literary agent] Bagwell (@SweetieWalker) March 4, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  I’ll mail you a copy of the Constitution since apparently you have never read it.

  — SusieQ4USA🇺🇸 (@127bama) March 4, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  And our particular favorite:

  NO it is NOT!!! pic.twitter.com/GpFFrJf2tJ

  — Peni Basse ⭐️⭐️⭐️ Text TRUMP to 88022 (@pmbasse) March 5, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  I’m not sure where she read that it was a right but I know for certain that abortion is something our Founding Fathers didn’t include in the Constitution.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 03/05/2020 – 22:25

• Oil Markets Predicting Risk Of A Global Recession
  Oil Markets Predicting Risk Of A Global Recession

  Authored by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com,

  Oil prices have sold off sharply over the past month. Despite a series of bullish events – the killing of Qasem Soleimani by the US, Iran’s retaliation attack on US troops in Iraq, the shutdown of almost the entire Libyan production and the US’ tightening the screws on Venezuela by sanctioning Rosneft and potentially refusing to renew waivers to US companies stating in April – oil prices are now substantially lower than before these events. Brent front month prices peaked at $72/bbl in early January and are now at below $50/bbl (See Exhibit 1).

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Moreover, by mid-January, the geopolitical tensions and supply losses had pushed the Brent curve into severe backwardation. June-December 2020 time-spreads for example traded as high as $4.50/bbl just one month ago, reflecting prolonged physical tightness. Those time-spreads are now in contango (see Exhibit 2).

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  This massive change in sentiment happened as the Coronavirus situation in China unfolded. Importantly, while we do expect a significant impact on Chinese oil demand from the massive travel restrictions in China, that alone would not warrant such a move in the curve in our view. Instead, we think the recent moves in oil prices is reflecting expectations for a significant slowdown in global economic growth. In fact, we think the oil price move is now pricing in a significant probability for a global recession in 2020.

  Commodity markets are the only markets which currently reflecting this view. Equity markets, despite the recent sell-off, do not. Importantly, we believe commodity markets are still underpricing the risks to aggregate demand. The question is not longer whether the economic impact from the Coronavirus outbreak will be short-lived or whether it will be more pronounced. The question is whether the economic impact will be pronounced or catastrophic. In our view, energy markets are currently pricing in a pronounced impact with substantial fiscal and monetary stimulus down the road. There is substantial downside risk if that view turns out to be too optimistic.

  That said, in either case we expect central banks to return to the 2008 playbook soon. Nominal interest rates will only decline from here and we are likely going to see a reacceleration in quantitative easing. However, in the catastrophic scenario, we believe central banks will quickly realize that the tools they have been using since 2008 will not get them very far this time. Hence, we would expect central banks to become more creative, by deploying something like “helicopter money”. This is not far-fetched. Hong Kong announced a few days ago that it would give every adult citizen HK$10’000, around $1300, in order to combat the economic fallout Coronavirus-crisis. We believe this would push gold prices sharply higher medium term.

  How the Coronavirus outbreak changed the oil market outlook

  As we have highlighted before, there is a strong correlation between inventories and time-spreads (see Exhibit 3). When inventories are low, the oil curve tends to trade in backwardation (near-dated prices are above deferred prices). When inventories are high, the curve is in contango (near-dated prices are below deferred prices). The reason for this is that when inventories are low, consumers of a commodity are willing to pay a premium for immediate delivery rather than delivery at some point in the future. If oil (or any other commodity) is an input good in the production process, running out of the input good is much more costly than paying the premium as the alternative would be to shut down production. For example, jet fuel is an input good for an airline. Running out of jet fuel is very costly, hence, when inventories are generally low, airlines are willing to pay more for immediate jet fuel deliveries. The curve becomes backwardated. Conversely, when inventories are high, there is no risk of running out of oil, and storing oil is expensive (storage costs, insurance costs, time value of money), hence, consumers would rather have delivery in the future, and the curve is in contango.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–> 

  The outlook at the end of 2019

  We ended 2019 with relatively low global petroleum inventories, and hence, the Brent curve was backwardated. The low inventory situation came amidst strong US shale production growth and weak global demand. The reason for this is that OPEC production was lower by close to 2mb/d year-over-year on both voluntary (core OPEC+) and involuntary (Iran, Venezuela) production cuts (see Exhibit 4).

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  However, we expected global balances to change going forward. By the end of 2019, we predicted the global oil balance to be oversupplied by roughly 0.7mb/d in 2020 and by about 1mb/d in 1H2020. Consequently, we expected the curve to become less backwardated and eventually to end up in contango, accompanied by lower front month prices.

  Our bearish 2020 balance was driven mostly by strong production forecasts:

  • Conventional non-OPEC production was (and still is) expected to grow strongly in 2020 by about 1 mb/d with several major new fields coming online and ramping up.

  • US shale production, while not growing as quickly as in 2019, was still expected to grow at around 1mb/d (including natural gas liquids NGLs).

  • On net, we expected non-OPEC production to grow by 2mb/d year-over-year

  • This strong growth was expected to offset declines of 0.5mb/d year-over-year in OPEC production on the back of the new production cuts decided in December 2019 plus reduced output from Libya (we assume not all Libyan production will remain offline in 2020). The voluntary and involuntary production cuts from early 2019, however, would no longer show up as year-over-year declines.

  On net, at the end of 2019 we expected global oil production to grow by around 1.6mb/d in 2020.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  These supply growth expectations exceeded demand growth expectations in 2020. Most forecasters, including the International Energy Agency (IEA), predicted demand growth at slightly over 1mb/d. This reflected an expected recovery in global economic growth from 3% in 2019 to 3.4% in 2020. We had a more pessimistic outlook on demand growth of around 800-900kb/d because our calculation showed that demand growth was slowing down sharply in 2H2019, and thus, a minor recovery in economic growth would unlikely lead to the demand growth figures we had been accustomed to over the past years. But even with the more optimistic outlook by the IEA, the global oil balance was poised to be oversupplied.

  On net, we expected global petroleum inventories to build by close to 700kb/d in 2020 or about 230 million barrels. The bearish balances where mostly in 1H20 with an oversupply of >1mb/d, while it looked more neutral for the remainder of the year. Our inventory forecast, thus, implied weaker time-spreads and consequently, lower prices in 1H2020.

   <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Shutting off Libyan exports

  However, this bearish outlook was suddenly challenged in early January. Firstly, it was reported that Qasem Soleimani, an Iranian General of the revolutionary guards and commander of its Quds Force, was killed in an US airstrike in Iraq. Soleimani was considered the second most powerful man in Iran, in charge of all military operations outside Iran. The news sent oil prices sharply higher as the market began to worry about an escalation of this conflict in the region. Iran had repeatedly threatened to disrupt oil shipments in the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 1/3 of all seaborne oil flows. A few days later, Iran attacked a US base in Iraq with missiles in retribution. The US quickly announced that there weren’t any casualties among the US troops. The market interpreted that the Iranian retribution was an act of saving face rather than the first strike in a prolonged conflict, and prices moved sharply lower on the same day (see Exhibit 8). As suddenly as this conflict emerged, as quickly it was over, without any real impact on oil supplies.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  This changed quickly when on January 17, 2020, forces close to Libyan General Haftar closed almost all of Libya’s export ports. Prior to that, Libya had produced around 1.2mb/d of high-quality light sweet crude oil (see Exhibit 9). With the exports gone, the expected global oversupply in 1H2020 almost entirely vanished and 2H2020 now looked quite bullish. At the time, it was quite unclear how long the exports would remain shut-in.

  Historically, exports resumed when demands from local groups that blocked exports were met. But this time, the situation is much more complex than just meeting financial demands of a few local interest groups. General Haftar seems to be using the exports as a bargaining chip in the ongoing international peace negotiations. He also seems to have the backing of local tribe leaders (who blocked the ports), which have been complaining about the unfair – or lack of – distribution of the oil revenues for years. Thus, the likelihood for a quick resumption of exports looked low in January (This view has since turned out to be correct. Six weeks into the disruption and a peaceful and quick resolution of the conflict seem very unlikely).

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  As oil exports could potentially remain offline for months, the Libyan situation turned an oversupply to a shortage overnight. Consequentially, oil prices rallied on these news and time-spreads became more steeply backwardated.

  The Coronavirus outbreak starts impacting demand

  This bullishness didn’t last long. Since oil prices peaked on the back of the Libyan news six weeks ago, oil prices sold off more than $20/bbl. Moreover, the Brent forward curve went from steep backwardation to contango. This sell-off is entirely driven by the outbreak of the Coronavirus in China. While there is a significant immediate impact on oil demand from the draconian measures taken by the Chinese government to contain the virus, we think the market is now pricing in wider demand destruction on the back of a global economic slowdown or possibly a global recession.

  How much is oil demand affected in China? Chinese petroleum demand is roughly 13 mb/d, making it the second largest consumer in the world after the United States (see Exhibit 10). The below table show the breakdown of consumption by product:

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  We don’t have a lot of information out of China that would allow to directly calculate by how much oil demand is affected. The information we have suggests that air and rail travel and even car travel has decreased sharply, with some cities showing hardly any congestion in the streets. Thus, the hit from the transportation demand alone is most likely 2mb/d or even more as many international flights to and from China are suspended.

  On top of that, manufacturing has come to an almost standstill in about 70% of the country. Over the past week, we saw some companies resuming operation, but only at a minority of plants in some regions. A lot of workers who came home from Lunar New Year are still required to stay at home. We estimate the total demand impact currently to be around 3mb/d. While this seems a lot, in our view, this alone cannot explain the dramatic move from backwardation to contango and the $20/bbl price decline in less than 4 weeks. We think the oil market is pricing in a sustained hit to global economic growth, to the point where it’s pricing in a significant probability of a global recession.

  How big does the loss in oil demand have to be to warrant such a shift in the curve?

  Our inventory-to-time-spread model allows us to back out how much the market is pricing in in terms of inventory builds. Prior to the outbreak of the Coronavirus, prompt prices traded 20% above longer-dated prices (5-year forward). Currently, prompt prices are trading 7% below the forward. In our time-spread to inventory model, such a move is equivalent to a 280-million-barrel build in global inventories. With 3mb/d of demand shut in, it would still take >3 full months of total Chinese lockdown in order to get to such a number, and that requires assuming that once the virus is contained, Chinese companies are not making up any of the lost production (and in turn oil demand). Hence, in our view, the shift in the Brent term structure is not simply reflecting lost Chinese demand, it is reflecting a sharp deterioration in global economic growth.

  Assuming that lost Chinese demand is closer to 100 million barrels, 160 million barrels of inventory build (450kb/d) would have to come from lower economic growth outside of China. Our global demand model shows that a 1% change in global GDP accounts for 1 million b/d of oil demand. Thus, the market is now pricing in a 0.5% slowdown in global GDP on top of the slowdown in China. In other words, the oil market is pricing in global economic growth well under 3%. According to the IMF, the last time this has happened was during the finical crisis in 2009. Before that, one has to go back to the bursting of the dot.com bubble in 2002 to get to similar numbers.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Interestingly, commodity markets – oil and copper but also LNG and freight – are the only markets that seem to reflect this worldview. Equity markets on the other hand were making new highs even as the viral outbreak unfolded in China. While equities corrected sharply last week, equity markets have declined a lot less than commodities.

  We may have already been in a recession before the Coronavirus outbreak

  It may come as a surprise, but nobody really has a good handle on global oil demand. One would think that – given the importance of oil for the global economy – there would real-time in-depth data for oil demand across the globe. In reality, all demand data is of very poor quality, reported with a 2-3-month lag and very limited in scope (We only have data for OECD countries, which account for less than half of global demand). Furthermore, the data reported does not actually reflect what real demand is, it’s so called implied demand.

  Meaning, the OECD member countries are obliged to report production of oil and petroleum products, changes in stocks as well as imports and exports. From those data points, implied demand is calculated. How much is actually consumed by cars, trucks, jets and heating boilers is unknown. In fact, for most regions, we don’t even know how much gasoline is sold at petrol stations. While some OECD countries report weekly implied demand data, it often comes with heavy revisions a few months later, to the extent that the weekly demand data reports are ignored by the oil market (the market focuses almost entirely on the inventory reports, as those are believed to be the least distorted). Hence, the best estimate we have for OECD demand is typically a few months old, and even that data often tends to be revised years later.

  For non-OECD countries, demand data is even harder to obtain. Most non-OECD countries don’t report any data at all. Some do report some data, like China, but part of the data infers such strange results, that calculating implied demand becomes futile. Hence, non-OECD demand is typically just estimated based on economic growth projections. Hence, the global oil demand data that is typically reported and cited is simply a medley of notoriously bad OECD implied demand data and even less reliable estimates based on GDP predictions.

  In addition, oil agencies such as the IEA typically publish balances that don’t balance. Meaning, supply minus demand does not equal changes in inventories on a global level. In other words, The IEA does calculate demand as implied demand bottom up for each country but applying the same data for a top down implied demand calculation for the world, leaves a huge error term. The reason typically provided for this error term, is that changes in non-OECD inventories are not part of the balance. However, we do have some inventory data from larger non-OECD economies, and taking those into account does not typically improve those balances, it often makes them worse.

  Thus, when trying to get a glimpse of the state of global demand, we calculate top-down implied demand. Meaning, we aggregate changes in global inventories, including oil at sea and add supply, which should add up to global demand. Importantly, our implied demand number for 2019 shows very weak demand of just 0.7mb/d year-over-year. This is below of what most forecast agencies show. Moreover, while implied demand was still healthy in 1H2019, it slowed down dramatically in 2H2019.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  The latest numbers suggest that global demand growth in 2H19 was barely positive year-over-year. This would be consistent with global GDP growth at just 2%. While data for the most recent month will likely see some revisions, the latest revision have shown larger inventory builds than previously reported. We see indications for economic weakness in other corners of the petroleum markets as well. Demand from the chemical sector, for example, often an early warning sign for economic slowdown, was very weak in recent months.

  Is the oil market bearish enough?

  The oil market is one of the few markets that predicts a larger global economic impact from the virus outbreak. However, in our view, what is priced into the current forward curve is still too optimistic. The current 0.5% impact is the bare minimum we expect as a potential fallout on the global economy. This would require:

  • the draconian measured in China to be lifted over the coming weeks and business going back to normal (with heavy fiscal stimulus in 2H20),

  • Other governments abstaining from any comparable measures (no wide spread travel bans and  lock-downs)

  • Companies outside China abstaining to close plants and offices and manage to remain productive

  • The general population largely accepting that they may get the virus eventually and going their business as usual

  This scenario seems increasingly unlikely. France reported last week that tourism activity was down 30-40%. By the time this number was reported, the country had only 12 reported cases, so France can’t have been particularly affected by travel cancellations. We can, thus, assume that traveling activity across the world is now heavily impacted. Italy has over 2000 cases now as the virus is spreading in the northern part of the country. South Korea is closing plants and Japan has announced to close all schools until spring break. Global supply chains will no longer be impacted just because Chinese companies can’t deliver, but increasingly because manufacturers from other nations are affected as well. While supply is affected first, we expect demand to suffer going forward. Layoffs mean people will have less disposable income. The hospitality sector will be hit hard, retail as well. Car sales in China have collapsed and there are early indicators that car sales are already slowing down in Europe. We believe that – despite the sell-off – barely any of this to be currently priced into oil markets, still less in other assets such as equities.

  Conclusion

  Markets became really excited about some better PMI data prior to the Coronavirus outbreak. The IMF predicted a reacceleration in growth from 3% in 2019 to 3.4%. In all likelihood, the impact of the Coronavirus will bring 2020 growth well below 3% even in the “contained” scenario with minimal knock-on effects on other economies, either through supply chain effects or reduced demand for goods (commodities) from China.

  However, if economic activity was in fact already much weaker in 2H19 than what is generally assumed, the Coronavirus may be just what it takes to finally push the global economy into a deeper recession.

  In such a scenario, we would expect equities to adjust to reality over the coming weeks.

  At the same time, this should be very positive for gold. Despite the near-term deflationary effects from lower commodity prices, we expect central banks to quickly return to the financial crisis playbook by slashing rates and deploying some form of Quantitative Easing (QE) or more direct form of stimulation (helicopter money). This would propel gold prices sharply higher over the medium term.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 03/05/2020 – 22:05

• "Gold Is Going A Lot Higher" – DoubleLine's Gundlach Warns Of "Seizure In The Corporate Bond Market"
  “Gold Is Going A Lot Higher” – DoubleLine’s Gundlach Warns Of “Seizure In The Corporate Bond Market”

  “The bond market is rallying because The Fed has reacted the seizure in the corporate bond market – which is not getting enough attention.”

  That was the sentence that sparked a chin hitting the table moment for anyone watching DoubleLine CEO’s Jeff Gundlach being interviewed on CNBC today. Until now, amid all this equity market carnage, various talking heads – who clearly are not ‘in’ the bond market – have confidently claimed ‘yeah, but it’s different this time, there’s loads of liquidity and credit markets are not showing any signs of pain’… Well that all changed today as the world was told the truth.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Credit spreads have exploded wider in recent days… “the junk bond market is widening out massively…”

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Gundlach noted that Powell’s background in the private equity world – rather than academic economist land – has meant that his reaction function is driven by problems in the corporate bond market as “this will be problematic for the buyback aspect of the stock market.”

  The Fed cut rates, he added, “in reaction to even the investment being shutdown for 7 business days.“

  So the DoubleLine CEO said that Powell “cutting rates was justified” but didn’t like the way it was done as it signaled “panic.”

  The reason for his disdain is clear:

  “The Fed in their most recent press conference, took a victory lap, talking about how they had finally reached a stable place in policy and that they could be on hold for the foreseeable future, maybe even the entire world. That we are in a good place. That policy rates were appropriate. And I don’t know, I thought it was a little bit of hubris at this time.”

  And reminds watchers that historically, “when The Fed has cut 50bps in an emergency intra-meeting such as this, they typically cut pretty quickly after once again.”

  And sure enough the market is already pricing in another 50bps cut at the March meeting…

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  However, unlike Guggeheim’s Scott Minerd – who sees 10Y yields at 25bps – Gundlach believes “we are pretty near the low right now…maybe we get to 80 basis points on the ten year.”

  Well we are at 85bps now…

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  However, while his view is that long-rates are starting to floor, he notes that “short rates are definitely going lower. There is absolutely no upward pressure on short rates.”

  Gundlach agrees with Jim Bianco that short-rates are going back to zero, but stopped short of expectations for negative rates:

  “I think Jay Powell understands that negative rates are fatal to global financial system. If we go to negative rates, there will be capital destruction en masse.”

  But more easing is coming, as Gundlach reflects on those calling for v-shaped recoveries:

  “I think it is foolhardy to think anything other than this [pandemic] is going to take a major hit to short-term economic growth.”

  His perspective on the financial and societal impact of the Covid-19 pandemic is refreshingly honest on CNBC:

  “…obviously, the airlines are in free fall for good reason. And small business activity is going to contract. Maybe grocery store sales will go up on a short-term spike. But all other kind of social activity is grinding to a standstill.”

  Warning that “the two sectors that are just falling knives are financials and transports. And I don’t see anything that’s going the reverse that until we get through the other side this valley of this sort of travel shutdown.”

  Finally, Gundlach ends on an even more ominous note:

  “…the President and the physicians, on top of this coronavirus situation, and they are saying that they might have a vaccine in like a year, year and a half.

  So, nobody knows what is happening here. And so, caution is appropriate.“

  So no more buy the dip?

  As former Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher noted, that means a generation of money-managers are about to losae their security blankets!

  And that’s why Gundlach is long gold:

  “I turned bullish on gold in the summer of 2018 on my Total Return webcast when it was at 1190. And it just seems to me, as I talked about my Just Markets webcast, which is up on DoubleLine.com on a replay, that the dollar is going to get weaker.

  And the dollar getting weaker seems to be a policy. And the Fed cutting rates, slashing rates is clearly going to be dollar negative. And that means that gold is going to go higher.“

  Watch the full interview below:

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 03/05/2020 – 21:45

• Is Prince Andrew Being Protected By The FBI Over His Pedo Affair With Virginia Roberts?
  Is Prince Andrew Being Protected By The FBI Over His Pedo Affair With Virginia Roberts?

  Authored by Martin Jay via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

  The royal family in the UK is having its very foundations shaken by both the controversial departure of Prince Harry and Meghan and now startling new revelations which compromise Prince Andrew even further, since his “car crash” interview with BBC, over his alleged relationship with a sex-trafficked child prostitute working for Jeffrey Epstein.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Andrew had always denied any link whatsoever with the then named Virginia Roberts who was in just 17 when the main allegation – that Epstein flew her to London in March 2001 for her to have sex with the British royal – was brought against him. Central to that allegation was a photo taken by Ghislaine Maxwell in her London home on the same night in question which Andrew claims is fake.

  Roberts claims that she was forced into the act by Epstein and Maxwell and has gone on the record to talk about the intimate details of the incident, but her case have been light on witnesses or those who can corroborate her allegations. Until now.

  Her shocking claims are that Maxwell and Epstein were running a high class sex trafficking organisation which targeted powerful, influential individuals, which some might speculate was part of a Mossad run ‘honey trap’ – a blackmail ring which made Epstein hugely powerful and in a position to ask from the same targets favours, or for highly valuable information which could support its agenda.

  In just a few days in mid February, Prince Andrew already feeble case which he was clinging on to – that he had no link whatsoever with Roberts – was shattered though, which in itself raises a number of questions over who is protecting the British royal. And at what price?

  First off came the accusation by a palace security guard in London who has challenged Andrew’s claim to be in another part of the country (far from the capital) on the night of the alleged sexual incident. According to the security officer, Andrew returned to Buckingham Palace in the early hours and shouted at the top of his voice at the palace gates for them to be opened.

  But far more damning is the testimony of a telecoms man who was employed by Epstein on his private Caribbean island who a British tabloid interviewed days later, who identifies both Prince Andrew and Roberts being intimate with one another and how she appeared to be like a child “hiding behind an adult” sometime around 2001 or thereafter.

  There is nothing quite so powerful in a legal case which Roberts (now Giuffre) is preparing than eye witnesses who can stand in the witness box. And the emergence of Steve Scully will be seen as a massive blow to Andrew’s claims now. The FBI too will find it hard to ignore Scully’s allegations.

  Or will it?

  The notion supported by conspiracy theorists that Andrew is somehow being protected just got ratcheted up ten fold. The FBI interviewed Scully earlier but Prince Andrew’s name, curiously, was never mentioned.

  Given that Epstein and Maxwell were almost certainly being bankrolled by Mossad and that Trump’s relations with Israel are unfathomable one has to ask if there is a deliberate plot in the US to not take Virginia Giuffre’s allegations seriously. Add to that Britain and the US forging stronger links post Brexit with a new trade deal in the air and Trump’s double state visit to the Queen and a reasonable question would be is there a ruse on both sides of the Atlantic to keep Andrew out of an FBI investigation? Or perhaps more worryingly, is Andrew part of a bargaining chip from Trump’s side to nail a more advantageous trade deal which benefits America more, given Trump’s style of blackmailing those he wished to secure deals with, which we have seen with other countries he tackles?

  It is hard to imagine how many days left Andrew has as a British royal and a possible heir to the throne, given how tough the Queen was with Meghan and Harry, both stripped of their ‘royal’ titles as they bolt to the US to shamelessly cash in their fame. Andrew may well have to flee the UK and find a Caribbean island himself to escape the reach of both the FBI and Giuffre’s lawyers. But for the moment, he seems secure in the UK, protected by that oh-so special relationship between Trump and Buckingham palace.

  But for how long?

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 03/05/2020 – 21:25

• "The Worst Is Yet To Come": Nomura Now Sees As Many As 1.5 Million Covid Cases By June
  “The Worst Is Yet To Come”: Nomura Now Sees As Many As 1.5 Million Covid Cases By June

  “The worst is yet to come.”

  That’s the self-explanatory title of Nomura’s latest analysis assessing the consequences from the coronavirus pandemic, and which comes just two weeks after the Japanese bank issued its first preliminary assessment on the fallout from the global pandemic, which as readers will recall we found unduly optimistic. Well, a lot has happened since then, and as the report’s title suggests, the outlook has deteriorated sharply.

  In the bank’s new base case, it revises down further its Q1 2020 GDP growth forecast for China to 0% y-o-y, and for the world to 0.9%. While Nomura still envisages a V-shaped global recovery in Q2 in its new base case, it now has a “U” in its new “bad scenario” and a downright depressionary “L” (non) recovery in the new severe scenario.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Below are the details on how in just two short weeks, the situation went from bad to downright catastrophic, in the bank’s own words:

  • The positive news is the marked decline in the number of new daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in China, but it has also demonstrated the challenging trade-off other governments now face between public health security controls – ranging from adequate resources of health services to containment and mitigation measures – and economic growth.
  • China imposed draconian controls, sealing off Hubei’s nearly 60m inhabitants, blocking transport and locking down dozens of cities. China’s authoritarian state may have won the battle against the virus but at a huge short-run cost to economic growth. Our new base case assumes that China’s lockdowns end late this month, which will be too late to avoid our forecast of GDP growth slowing to 0% y-o-y this quarter, which translates to -4.4% q-o-q.
  • This contraction in China’s economy will have major negative spillover effects on the rest of the world, particularly in the rest of Asia – and this is only just starting to show up in the economic data. However, what has really spooked financial markets is the rapid contagion of COVID-19 outside China to 76 countries (and counting), with a handful of hotspots – South Korea, Italy and Iran. These hotspots are now experiencing the same severe simultaneous demand (public fear factor) and supply (business disruption) shocks as China in addition to the negative spillover effects from China’s contracting economy.
  • While COVID-19 has not been as deadly as SARS (the case fatality outside China and Iran is 1.5% vs 10% for SARs), what is now clear is that it spreads much more easily. As COVID-19 spreads, governments will need to weigh the trade-off between health security and economic growth and it remains to be seen whether they have the resources and wherewithal to increase their health security controls – and the public’s willingness to follow them – to the same force and effectiveness as China has done. If not, the rest of the world could, in the not too distant future, lose control in trying to contain COVID-19.

  Separately, for those urging for a central bank response, Nomura’s economists caution that in this abnormal economic slump, “macroeconomic policies are less well equipped to help (or “can only help so much”). If health security controls fail to contain the spread of COVID-19, financial markets may soon have to accept that a global recession is a forgone conclusion.”

  In short, the situation is bad, and could get much worse if the pandemic spreads unchecked even faster around the globe.

  How much worse? To consider the magnitudes, Nomura crudely assumes COVID-19’s attack rate (the percent of the population infected) in the rest of the world ends up being, on average, similar to that in China – then number of world confirmed cases could peak at 445,000. But if the rest of the world’s security controls are half as rigorous (the attack rate is twice as high as China’s) the number of world confirmed cases could peak at 890,000, and if world’s controls are one-quarter as rigorous, the peak could be 1.78m.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Consider the 2009 H1N1 Influenza. It started in the US in late April 2009 and spread with great intensity. By 11 June, it had reached 74 countries with a total of 30,000 cases and it was on this date that the WHO declared a global pandemic (it has not declared one since); by early November it has reached over 200 countries with 0.5m cases. We estimate that over the same period since the initial outbreak, the number of COVID-19 cases is about 3x more than 2009 H1N1, and if it tracks the 2009 H1N1 case trajectory there could be 1.5m COVID-19 cases by June 2020.

  * * *

  Extending on the above analysis, to get a relative sense of which countries outside China are most vulnerable to becoming high infection hotspots from COVID-19, Nomura has expanded the scorecard in our earlier Anchor report to 40 countries (Figure 2). Of the nine indicators, higher values indicate a higher risk of contagion, except in the case of geographical proximity and the global health security index, where lower values indicate higher vulnerability. The bank then normalizes the values of each of the nine indicators across countries, by calculating Z-scores, and sums up the nine Z-scores for each country and add 100. The results line up reasonably well with the COVID-19 contagion so far with South Korea, Iran and Italy ranking as highly exposed.

  Glancing at country temperatures, there is support for the notion that COVID-19 is weaker in warmer climates, but the analysis shows several countries with mild temperatures that are at risk of becoming hotspots. The two most exposed – Hong Kong and Singapore – have been relatively successful in containing COVID-19 so far.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  And while there is much more in the full 64-page analysis, we can summarize the analysis with the following three somber warnings:

  • The COVID-19 shock is quickly morphing into a global crisis. In addition to major economic spillover effects from China’s large GDP contraction in Q1, an increasing number of countries are having to contend with their own local demand and supply-side shocks from the spread of COVID-19, plus a tightening in global financial conditions.
  • In terms of rapid policy response, the Fed is really the only game in town (we expect the Fed to cut rates by a further 50bp in our base case and 125bp in our bad scenario). The ECB and BOJ have limited room, and fiscal stimulus will take time to deploy.
  • This is an abnormal global economic slump. The most effective immediate policy response is not monetary or fiscal policies; it’s health security controls. If health security controls fail to contain the spread of COVID-19, financial

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 03/05/2020 – 21:25

• Ja-Panic? – Stocks & Bond Yields Are Collapsing As Asia Opens
  Ja-Panic? – Stocks & Bond Yields Are Collapsing As Asia Opens

  10Y Treasury yields are collapsing to new record lows as Asian markets open – down to a stunning 82bps…

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Source: Bloomberg

  2Y TSY yields are back below 50bps…

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Source: Bloomberg

  For the first time since 2016…

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Source: Bloomberg

  China’s 10Y Yields just fell to a record low…

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Source: Bloomberg

  And Dow futures are down over 200 points, accelerating lower as no apparent imminent intervention from The BoJ is seen…

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  AsiaPac stocks are a sea of red…

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  And the dollar continues to get dumped…

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  But don’t worry, a good jobs print tomorrow will bring the machines back on line in dip-buying, must confirm all is well mode… or not!

  The market is now pricing in 3 more rate-cuts to the April Fed meeting…

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  That will save us for sure! Right?

   

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 03/05/2020 – 21:21

• After Purell Sells Out, Titos Says Stop Using Vodka As Hand Sanitizer
  After Purell Sells Out, Titos Says Stop Using Vodka As Hand Sanitizer

  Americans have been panic buying masks, Purell, and food in the last several weeks as pandemic fears soar. We showed over the weekend how thousands of people rushed to Costco stores across the country to load up on supplies.

  3M N-95 masks have been in short supply since late January, as much of the US mask stockpile was depleted last month.

  The latest run on products started with Purell last week. Brick and mortar and e-commerce stores ran out of the hand sanitizer made of an ethyl alcohol solution. As a result of surging demand and now shortages, it forced many people to experiment at-home in concocting their own hand sanitizer blend with vodka.

  Austin-based Tito’s Vodka noticed Twitter users in the last 24 hours were using their spirits to make at-home sanitizers. Tito’s social media team was quick to inform anyone who was experimenting with Tito’s products that the concentration of alcohol in the products wasn’t high enough to be rated as an effective sanitizer. “Per the CDC, hand sanitizer needs to contain at least 60% alcohol. Tito’s Handmade Vodka is 40% alcohol, and therefore does not meet the current recommendation of the CDC,” Tito’s Vodka tweeted.

  Per the CDC, hand sanitizer needs to contain at least 60% alcohol. Tito’s Handmade Vodka is 40% alcohol, and therefore does not meet the current recommendation of the CDC. Please see attached for more information. pic.twitter.com/DtpfsAHZKJ

  — TitosVodka (@TitosVodka) March 5, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “As soon as we saw the incorrect articles and social posts, we wanted to set the record straight,” a spokesperson for Tito’s said in a statement provided to The Dallas Morning News. “While it would be good for business for our fans to use massive quantities of Tito’s for hand sanitizer, it would be a shame to waste the good stuff, especially if it doesn’t sanitize (which it doesn’t, per the CDC).”

  Per the CDC, hand sanitizer needs to contain at least 60% alcohol. Tito’s Handmade Vodka is 40% alcohol, and therefore does not meet the current recommendation of the CDC. Please see attached for more information. pic.twitter.com/QNEFOXxYPQ

  — TitosVodka (@TitosVodka) March 5, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Per the CDC, hand sanitizer needs to contain at least 60% alcohol. Tito’s Handmade Vodka is 40% alcohol, and therefore does not meet the current recommendation of the CDC. Please see attached for more information. pic.twitter.com/J5ifkV3Jah

  — TitosVodka (@TitosVodka) March 5, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Per the CDC, hand sanitizer needs to contain at least 60% alcohol. Tito’s Handmade Vodka is 40% alcohol, and therefore does not meet the current recommendation of the CDC. Please see attached for more information. pic.twitter.com/96uldE8uMe

  — TitosVodka (@TitosVodka) March 4, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  As the fast-spreading virus infects America, what products will people hoard this coming weekend? We’re sure more videos will surface on social media of runs on stores. 

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 03/05/2020 – 21:05

• "Political Anarchy" Is How The West Got Rich
  “Political Anarchy” Is How The West Got Rich

  Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

  It is not uncommon to encounter political theorists and pundits who insist that political centralization is a boon to economic growth.  In both cases, it is claimed the presence of a unifying central regime – whether in Brussels or in Washington, DC, for example – is essential in ensuring the efficient and free flow of goods throughout a large jurisdiction. This, we are told, will greatly accelerate economic growth.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  In many ways, the model is the United States, inside of which there are virtually no barriers to trade or migration at all between member states. In the EU, barriers have been falling rapidly in recent decades.

  The historical evidence, however, suggests that political unity is not actually a catalyst to economic growth or innovation over the long term. In fact, the European experience suggests that the opposite is true.

  Why Did Europe Surpass China in Wealth and Growth?

  A thousand years ago, a visitor from another planet might have easily overlooked European civilization as a poor backwater. Instead, China and the Islamic world may have looked far more likely to be the world leaders in wealth and innovation indefinitely.

  Why is it, then, that Europe became the wealthiest and most technologically advanced civilization in the world?

  Indeed, the fact that Europe had grown to surpass other civilizations that were once more scientifically and technologically advanced had become apparent by the nineteenth century. Historians have debated the question of the origins of this “European miracle” ever since.

  This “miracle,” historian Ralph Raico tells us,

  consists in a simple but momentous fact: It was in Europe—and the extensions of Europe, above all, America—that human beings first achieved per capita economic growth over a long period of time. In this way, European society eluded the “Malthusian trap,” enabling new tens of millions to survive and the population as a whole to escape the hopeless misery that had been the lot of the great mass of the human race in earlier times. The question is: why Europe?

  Across the spectrum of historians, theories about Europe’s economic development have been varied, to say the least. But one of the most important characteristics of European civilization—ever since the collapse of the Western Roman Empire—has been Europe’s political decentralization.

  Raico continues:

  Although geographical factors played a role, the key to western development is to be found in the fact that, while Europe constituted a single civilization—Latin Christendom—it was at the same time radically decentralized. In contrast to other cultures—especially China, India, and the Islamic world—Europe comprised a system of divided and, hence, competing powers and jurisdictions.

  Although modern EU centralizers are attempting it, at no point has European civilization ever fallen under the dominion of a single state as has been the case in China. Even during the early modern period, as some polities managed to form absolutist states, much of Europe — such as the highly dynamic areas in the Low Countries, Northern Italy, and the German cities — remained in flux and highly decentralized. The rise of the merchant classes, banking, and an urban middle class — which began as early as the Middle Ages and were so essential in building the a future industrial Europe — thrived without large states. 

  After all, while a large polity with few internal borders can indeed lead to large markets with fewer transaction costs, concentrating power in one place brings big risks; a state that can facilitate trade across a large empire is also a state that can stifle trade through regulation, taxation, and even expropriation.

  The former vast kingdoms and empires of Asia may have once been well positioned to foster the creation of a wealthy merchant class and middle class. But the fact is this didn’t happen. Those states instead focused on stifling threats to state power, centralizing political control of markets, and extorting the public through the imposition of fines and penalties on those who were disfavored by the ruling classes.

  The Benefits of “Anarchy”

  In contrast, Europe was relatively anarchic compared to other world civilizations and became the home of the great economic leap forward that we now take for granted. This isn’t “anarchy” in the sense of “chaos,” of course. This is anarchy as understood by political scientists: the lack of any single controlling state or authority. In key periods of the continent’s development—as now—there was no ruler of “Europe” and no European empire. Thus, in his book The Origins of Capitalism, historian Jean Bachler concludes:

  The first condition for the maximization of economic efficiency is the liberation of civil society with respect to the state….The expansion of capitalism owes its origins and raison d’être to political anarchy. (emphasis in original)

  For many years, economic historians have attempted to find correlations between this political anarchy and Europe’s economic success. Many have found the connection to be undeniable. Economist Douglass North, for instance, concludes:

  The failures of the most likely candidates, China and Islam, point the direction of our inquiry. Centralized political control limits the options—limits the alternatives that will be pursued in a context of uncertainty about the long-run consequences of political and economic decisions. It was precisely the lack of large scale political and economic order that created the environment essential to economic growth and ultimately human freedoms. In the competitive decentralized environment lots of alternatives were pursued; some worked, as in the Netherlands and England; some failed as in the case of Spain and Portugal; and some, such as France, fell in between these two extremes.

  Competition among Governments Means More Freedom

  But why exactly does this sort of radical decentralization “limit the options” for ruling princes and kings? Freedom increases, because under a decentralized system, there are more “alternatives”—to use North’s term—available to those seeking to avoid what E.L. Jones calls “predatory government tax behavior.” Thus, historian David Landes emphasized the importance of “multiple, competing polities” in Europe in setting the stage for

  private enterprise in the West possess[ing] a social and political vitality without precedent or counterpart. This varied, needless to say, from one part of Europe to another…And sometimes adventitious events like war or a change of sovereign produced a major alteration in the circumstances of the business classes. On balance, however, the place of private enterprise was secure and improving with time; and this is apparent in the institutional arrangements that governed the getting and spending of wealth.

  It was this “latent competition between states,” Jones contends that drove individual polities to pursue policies designed to attract capital.  More competent princes and kings adopted policies that led to economic prosperity in neighboring polities, and thus “freedom of movement among the nation-states offered opportunities for ‘best practices’ to diffuse in many spheres, not least the economic.” Since European states were relatively small and weak—yet culturally similar to many neighboring jurisdictions—abuses of power by the ruling classes led to declines in both revenue and in the most valuable residents. Rulers sought to counter this by guaranteeing protections for private property.

  This doesn’t mean there were never abuses of power, of course, but as Landes observed:

  To be sure, kings could, and did, make or break men of business; but the power of the sovereign was constrained by the requirements of states…and international competition. Capitalists could take their wealth and enterprise elsewhere and even if they could not leave, the capitalists of other realms would not be slow to profit from their discomfiture.

  Nor was decentralization limited to the international system of separate sovereign states.

  Thanks to the longtime tug-of-war between the state and the church, and between kings and nobles, decentralization was common even within polities. Raico continues:

  Decentralization of power also came to mark the domestic arrangements of the various European polities. Here feudalism—which produced a nobility rooted in feudal right rather than in state-service—is thought by a number of scholars to have played an essential role….Through the struggle for power within the realms, representative bodies came into being, and princes often found their hands tied by the charters of rights (Magna Carta, for instance) which they were forced to grant their subjects. In the end, even within the relatively small states of Europe, power was dispersed among estates, orders, chartered towns, religious communities, corps, universities, etc., each with its own guaranteed liberties.

  Over the long term, however, it was the system of international anarchy that appears to have ensured that states were constrained in their ability to tax and extort the merchant classes and middle classes, who were such a key component of Europe’s rising economic fortunes.

  We Need a Return to Smaller Polities

  Even today, we continue to see these factors at work. Small states—especially in Europe and the Americas—tend to have higher incomes and have greater openness. We can see this in the microstates of Europe and in the Caribbean. Small states, seeking to attract capital, often undercut larger neighbors in terms of taxes.

  It is true that one of the most economically successful polities in the world today is a large one: the United States. The US’s success, however, can be attributed to the enduring presence of political decentralization internally—especially during the nineteenth century—and to the latent, albeit receding, economic liberalism esteemed by much of its population. Europe, of course, was already rich—and relatively politically free compared to the despotic regimes of the East—long before it began to centralize political power under the banner of the European Union.

  Today, however, we are seeing the impoverishing downside of decades of political centralization in both the US and Europe. Government regulations decreed from Brussels and Washington continue to stifle innovation and entrepreneurship. The EU has sought to crack down on low taxes in smaller member states. Both the EU and the US are erecting trade barriers to producers outside their trading blocs.

  The antidote to all of this is to decentralize. Decentralization, after all, has never been a true barrier to economic growth.  If anything, the rise of mobile capital and global trade has made economic success more attainable for small states than ever before. Moreover, the implosion of the Soviet Union provides yet another example of how the disintegration of a large state can lead to far more economic progress than had been thought possible.

  Unfortunately, those in power, who benefit from the status quo and from holding the reins of large states, are unlikely to relinquish their power without a fight.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 03/05/2020 – 20:45

• Bloomberg Launching New Group To Support Democratic Nominee, Attack Trump
  Bloomberg Launching New Group To Support Democratic Nominee, Attack Trump

  ‘Mini’ Mike Bloomberg is forming a new organization which will support the Democratic nominee and attack President Trump, according to the Washington Post.

  So this little guy:

  Mini Mike, you’re easy! pic.twitter.com/rxFiqSB9RQ https://t.co/G2M1QHj0HV

  — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 5, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Is going to support this guy:

  This type of stuttering, mental impairment and overall cognitive decline is frequently seen in patients who suffer from a neurological disease like dementia. pic.twitter.com/WpjErGaS96

  — Michael Coudrey (@MichaelCoudrey) March 5, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  To take on President Trump in November – in the midst of a potentially (some would say unavoidably) serious coronavirus outbreak blanketing the country.

  Bloomber’s new group – which has yet to disclose its name while it’s in teh trademark application process – will absorb hundreds of the billionaire’s presidential campaign staffers in six swing states.

  One major hurdle is the fact that Bloomberg’s ‘meme team’ is the best money can buy, and they’re still not funny.

  We’re not done with you yet, Donald. https://t.co/RYLzqPP9e8 pic.twitter.com/2AI0iCWPKr

  — Mike Bloomberg (@MikeBloomberg) March 5, 2020

  This probably killed with the 22-year-old Daily Show stoner demographic.

  Trump was in rare form during his post-acquittal speech. pic.twitter.com/jq8NTTn5yd

  — Team Bloomberg (@Mike2020) February 6, 2020

  Bloomberg’s meme team is sure to do wonders for Joe Biden.

  “I’ve always believed that defeating Donald Trump starts with uniting behind the candidate with the best shot to do it,” Bloomberg said Wednesday after suffering a staggering defeat during Super Tuesday. “After yesterday’s vote, it is clear that candidate is my friend and a great American, Joe Biden.”

  Bernie Sanders’s advisers, meanwhile, say they want no help from Bloomberg’s crack team of electioneers.

  Bloomberg’s advisers have identified Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Florida and North Carolina as the six states that will decide the electoral college winner this year. Staffers in each of those states have signed contracts through November to work on the effort.

  The new group also could serve as a vehicle for Bloomberg to support Democratic candidates for the House and Senate. In 2018, Bloomberg gave $20 million to Senate Majority PAC to support Democratic senatorial candidates. A separate group he founded, Independence USA, spent $38 million to help Democrats retake the U.S. House. –Washington Post

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jshttps://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  In addition to Bloomberg’s new organization, he will continue to fund Hawkfish – a political data company which is supporting Democratic campaigns, according to a person familiar with the discussions. The company has signed a long-term lease in the same building in Times Square which has been home to Bloomberg’s presidential campaign.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 03/05/2020 – 20:25

• Studies Show Fracking Ban Would Wreak Havoc On US Economy
  Studies Show Fracking Ban Would Wreak Havoc On US Economy

  Authored by Tim Benson via WattsUpWithThat.com,

  A new study from the American Petroleum Institute (API), with modeling data provided by the consulting firm OnLocation, details how a nationwide ban on hydraulic fracturing (colloquially known as “fracking”) could trigger a recession, would seriously damage U.S. economic and industrial output, considerably increase household energy costs, and make life much harder and costlier for American farmers.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  In America’s Progress at Risk: An Economic Analysis of a Ban on Fracking and Federal Leasing for Natural Gas and Oil Development, API argues that a fracking ban would lead to a cumulative loss in gross domestic product (GDP) of $7.1 trillion by 2030, including $1.2 trillion in 2022 alone. Per capita GDP would also decline by $3,500 in 2022, with an annual average decline of $1,950 through 2030. Annual household income would also decline by $5,040.

  In 2022 alone, 7.5 million jobs would be lost (almost 5 percent of the U.S. total workforce), while annual job losses would average roughly 3.8 million through 2030. More than 3.6 million jobs would be lost in five states alone in 2022: 1.103 million in Texas, 765,000 in California, 711,000 in Florida, 551,000 in Pennsylvania, and 500,000 in Ohio. States with the highest job losses as a share of overall employment would be North Dakota (76,000), Oklahoma (319,000), New Mexico (149,000), Wyoming (48,000), Louisiana (321,000), West Virginia (109,000), Kansas (208,000), and Colorado (353,000).

  Household energy costs would also increase significantly, 14 percent by 2030, even though household energy use is projected to decline by 12 percent. American families would see, on average, a $618 annual increase in their energy costs, as electricity prices would rise by, on average, 20 percent annually. Gasoline prices would also increase by 15 percent.

  Farm incomes would decline by 43 percent, with a cumulative loss in farm income of $275 billion, or more than $25 billion on average annually. The costs of wheat farming would increase by 64 percent, while corn farming costs would increase by 54 percent and the costs of soybean farming would increase by 48 percent.

  This is not the only recent study to highlight the immense economic costs of a ban on hydraulic fracturing. A report released in November 2019 by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s Global Energy Institute concludes a ban would eliminate 19 million jobs through 2025 and reduce GDP by $7.1 trillion. The report also estimates household incomes would be reduced by $3.7 trillion by 2025. Consumers would be paying $5,661 more per capita for energy and goods and services thanks to a doubling of gasoline prices and a 324 percent increase in the price of natural gas over that same time period.

  The fracking revolution of the past dozen years has considerably spurred economic development throughout the United States. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, the shale industry alone drove 10 percent of U.S. GDP from 2010 to 2015. In 2018, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, oil and gas extraction accounted for $218 billion of U.S. economic output.

  A September 2019 report conducted by Kleinhenz & Associates for the Ohio Oil and Gas Energy Education Program shows increased oil and natural gas production from fracking has saved American consumers $1.1 trillion in the decade from 2008 to 2018. This breaks down to more than $900 in annual savings to each American family, or $9,000 in cumulative savings.

  Meanwhile, the White House Council of Economic Advisors estimated in October 2019 that fracking saves American families $203 billion annually on gasoline and electricity bills, roughly $2,500 per family. For low-income families, who spend the largest share of their income on energy costs, these savings are very significant. For those families in the lowest income quintile, it represents a savings of 6.8 percent of their total income.

  Hydraulic fracturing activity delivers $1,300 to $1,900 in annual benefits to local households, including “a 7 percent increase in average income, driven by rises in wages and royalty payments, a 10 percent increase in employment, and a 6 percent increase in housing prices,” according to a December 2016 study conducted by researchers at the University of Chicago, Princeton University, and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. 

  Another study published in the American Economic Review in April 2017 found “each million dollars of new [oil and gas] production produces $80,000 in wage income and $132,000 in royalty and business income within a county. Within 100 miles, one million dollars of new production generates $257,000 in wages and $286,000 in royalty and business income.”

  Hydraulic fracturing enables the cost-effective extraction of once-inaccessible oil and natural gas deposits. These energy sources are abundant, inexpensive, environmentally safe, and can ensure the United States remains a leading energy producer for years to come. Therefore, policymakers across the country should refrain from considering any sort of fracking ban or moratorium, while also making sure not to place unnecessary burdens on the natural gas and oil industries, which are safe and positively impact their states’ economies.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 03/05/2020 – 20:05

• "Super Puke" – US Stocks Crash As Credit Markets & Yields Collapse
  “Super Puke” – US Stocks Crash As Credit Markets & Yields Collapse

  So much for the ‘Biden Bounce’. Watching the markets today  – as The Dow plunged 1000 points, Treasury yields collapsed to record lows, credit markets imploded, and demands for more Fed intervention exploded – has one veteran trader remarking, “this is becoming a super-puke.”

  It seems the stock market is ‘stuffed’ with Fed intervention and ‘just one waffer-thin mint’ more may spark the total destruction of markets.

  The market is in panic mode – demanding over 50bps more rate-cuts in March as stocks collapse…

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Source: Bloomberg

  Credit spreads are exploding wider (decompressing 9 of the last 11 days – the biggest blowout since June 2013) – now at their widest since 2016…

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Source: Bloomberg

  Sending an ugly message to stocks…

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Source: Bloomberg

  10Y Treasury yields plunged to new record lows…

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Source: Bloomberg

  And gold (safe-haven) was aggressively bid…

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  In fact, since The Fed enacted an emergency 50bps rate-cut, Gold is soaring as the dollar and stocks faded…

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  And before we dive into some of the details, this made us laugh – China – the epicenter of the collapse in global supply chains – has seen its stock market MIRACULOUSLY soar back to pre-Covid-19 levels… as Europe and US crash…

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Source: Bloomberg

  Amid all this chaos, Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P are still up 2-3% on the week, Small Caps and Trannies are red though…

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Dow tumbled back below 26k and then the battle began for the algos…

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Yesterday’s top was at an almost perfect 50% retrace of the initial crash…

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Another 1000-point day for the Dow – just how crazy is this vol? It’s the most extreme since the very peak of Europe’s debt crisis…

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Source: Bloomberg

  On the week, Defensives have dominated with Cyclicals unchanged (although today saw both hit just as hard)…

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Source: Bloomberg

  Bank stocks entered a bear market today, tumbling to their weakest since Jan 2019…

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Source: Bloomberg

  Global Systemically Important Banks are collapsing…

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Source: Bloomberg

  The Big US Banks were clubbed like baby seals…

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Source: Bloomberg

  VIX smashed higher, back above 42 intraday…

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  The VIX term structure is its most inverted since Lehman…

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Source: Bloomberg

  While stocks feel like they have plunged, they have a long way to go to catch up to bonds’ reality…

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Source: Bloomberg

  Treasury yields crashed today down 10-15bps across the curve with the long-end outperforming…

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Source: Bloomberg

  Yields are hitting record or cycle lows across the entire curve…

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Source: Bloomberg

  The Dollar slipped back to post-Powell-cut lows – this is the lowest for the dollar since January…

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Source: Bloomberg

  Cryptos were bid today, lifting all the major coins into the green for the week…

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Source: Bloomberg

  Commodities were clearly divided today with gold and silver soaring and copper and crude crushed…

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Source: Bloomberg

  WTI plunged back to a $45 handle after OPEC+ talks did not seem to go well (damn you Putin!)…

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Gold soared higher all day – to its highest close since Jan 2013

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  And also surged again Yuan…

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Source: Bloomberg

  Finally, with a h/t to John Lohman, the Coronavirus Fear Index is exploding… “Long panic-buying food, short travel and entertainment”

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  “Probably nothing!”

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 03/05/2020 – 20:01

• Lebanon Prosecutor Freezes Assets Of 20 Banks After $2.3BN In 'Illegal' Transfers
  Lebanon Prosecutor Freezes Assets Of 20 Banks After $2.3BN In ‘Illegal’ Transfers

  Lebanon’s state news agency NNA said on Thursday the country’s top financial prosecutor has moved to freeze the assets of 20 Lebanese banks, including the property of the bank chiefs and boards.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  

  “Judge Ali Ibrahim decided to freeze the assets of twenty Lebanese banks. He also imposed a freeze on the assets of the heads and members of boards of directors of these banks,” state-run NNA said.

  It comes amid a broader ongoing probe into the alleged illegal transfer of some $2.4 billion overseas and the recent sale of Eurobonds to foreign funds. Fourteen bankers are reportedly under scrutiny as the Lebanese economy teeters on the brink of collapse, and crucially with a March 9 deadline looming for repayment of $1.2 billion in Eurobonds.

  Bloomberg lists some among Lebanon’s biggest lenders including “Bank Audi, Fransabank, Blom Bank and the Lebanese unit of Societe General” under investigation.

  And further “The prosecutor also questioned the head of the Association of Banks in Lebanon, Salim Sfeir, who is also chairman of Bank of Beirut,” according to the report.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  

  The government charges that bankers are actively thwarting attempts to restructure the country’s debt, while the banks say they needed cash to meet demand of patrons for basic staples including wheat, fuel and medicines amid the ongoing liquidity crisis. 

  The Institute of International Finance (IIF) now lists Lebanon as having among the highest debt-to-gross domestic product ratios in the world at 166%.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Chart via Bloomberg: “Relative to the economy, Lebanon’s banking system is the Middle East’s biggest — and one of the biggest in the world.”

  This after its public debt increased by an annual 7.6% to $91.64 billion at the close of 2019.

  Over the past number of months the country has seen repeat intermittent bank closures, also as banks have blocked most transfers abroad for their clients, and maintained tight controls over hard-currency withdrawals, policies which have in many instances led to riots and reports of threats against bank staff.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 03/05/2020 – 19:45

• President Trump Refuses To Answer Questions About Testing Kit Shortage As US Case Total Passes 200: Live Updates
  President Trump Refuses To Answer Questions About Testing Kit Shortage As US Case Total Passes 200: Live Updates

  Summary:

  • 207 cases reported across the US
  • Santa Clara County total hits 20 as 6 new cases confirmed
  • San Francisco mayor reports first 2 cases in the city
  • SF closes a school after a student tests positive
  • First French lawmaker contracts the virus
  • New Jersey Lt. Gov confirms 2nd “presumptive” case
  • 2 more cases confirmed in Texas’s Harris County
  • NYC asks travelers from 5 countries to ‘self-quarantine’
  • Trump refuses to answer questions about testing kit shortage
  • NY state cases double to 22
  • Washington state reports another 20 cases
  • Palestinian territories confirm 7 cases
  • Seattle closes 26 schools
  • Pentagon tracking 12 possible COVID-19 cases
  • 35 passengers aboard ‘Grand Princess’ showing flu-like symptoms
  • Another senior Iranian figure dies
  • Illinois reports 5 more cases
  • NYC reports 2 more cases, raising total to 4
  • Italy postpones referendum vote; death toll hits 148
  • WHO’s Tedros: “Now’s the time to pull out the stops”
  • Tennessee confirms case
  • Nevada confirms first case
  • New Delhi closes primary schools
  • EU officials weigh pushing retired health-care workers back into service to combat virus
  • Italy to ask EU for permission to raise budget deficit as lawmakers approve €7.5 billion euros
  • Beijing tells residents not to share food
  • 30-year-old Chinese man dies in Wuhan 5 days after hospital discharge
  • Cali authorities tell ‘Grand Princess’ cruise ship not to return to port until everyone is tested
  • Global case total passes 95k
  • Lebanon sees cases double to 31
  • France deaths climb to 7, cases up 138 to 423
  • EY sends 1,500 Madrid employees home after staffer catches virus
  • Trump says he has a “hunch” true virus mortality rate is closer to 1%
  • Switzerland reports 1st death
  • South Africa confirms 1st case
  • UK chief medical officer confirms ‘human-to-human’ infections are happening in UK
  • UK case total hits 115
  • Google, Apple, Netflix cancel events
  • HSBC sends research department and part of London trading floor home
  • Facebook contract infected in Seattle
  • Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Netflix cancel events and/or ask employees to work from home
  • Netherlands cases double to 82
  • Spain cases climb 40, 1 new death
  • Belgium reports 27 new cases bringing total to 50
  • Germany adds 87 cases bringing total to 349

  * * *

  Update (1930ET): We neglected to mention this earlier, but in light of all the companies in the US sending employees home or asking them to WFH (an acronym that’s starting cropping up with startling regularity), it’s worth mentioning that Starbucks said earlier that it expects a revenue hit of up to $430 million due to the coronavirus’s impact on its China business. At the same time, the company revealed Thursday during its after-hours earnings report that 90% of its 4,300 stores have reopened and have returned to business as usual, more or less.

  Meanwhile, in what seems like a deliberate decision to slow the increase of the case count, the CDC reported earlier that the “confirmed” cases in the US had topped 149 – 100 cases across 19 states, plus another 49 who had been repatriated from either the Diamond Princess or Wuhan.

  That’s up from 129 on Wednesday.

  Of course, given all the “presumptive” positives reported on Thursday, we suspect that number has already likely increased by at least 50. BNO News, which has been tracking cases across the world, put the US case total at 207 as of 7:30 pm ET.

  In the latest sign of the media’s frustration with President Trump’s handling of the outbreak, ABC News and others have “fact checked” Trump’s claim, made during a Wednesday evening press conference, that the slow rollout of new test cases is “Obama’s fault.”

  In reality, the CDC’s initial batch of test kits didn’t work as designed, as the agency admitted, which left the administration flat-footed when the case numbers started climbing.

  The truth is that neither the Obama administration nor the Trump administration really prioritized pandemic response. That, combined with the CDC’s epic screwup, is the root of the current problem.

  Still, the fact remains that more than 99% of people calling about getting tested are probably hypocondriacs or are unnecessarily paranoid given the news coverage and general hysteria that sent the Dow on another nearly four-figure drop on Thursday.

  * * *

  Update (1830ET): Following the disclosure of its first two cases, San Francisco has closed Lowell High School – a school that’s located on the border of Parkside on the east side of town –  after a student there reportedly tested positive for Covid-19. Earlier, Mayor Breed said there were two cases in the city, and that both were “contained”. Some 3,000 students attend the school/

  However, it looks like this student – if these reports are accurate – might be SF’s third case (or they  may have been counted in the roll of another nearby county depending on where they live). Public Health Director Dr. Grant Colfax said the first patient was a man in his 90s with underlying health conditions. The patient’s condition was described as serious. The second patient is a woman in her 40s and is in the hospital in fair condition. The patients aren’t related, and neither traveled recently, meaning they likely picked up the virus in the city, or nearby. They’re being kept at separate hospitals.

  “We do not know how they were exposed,” Colfax said during the press conference (video below). “This suggests that this is spreading in the community.”

  Breed asked that city residents now treat anybody poorly because of the outbreak, citing harmful examples of “xenophobia” (somehow, we suspect this might not be an issue in SF, unless things get really bad).

  Here’s a list of closures across the area, courtesy of KTVU.

  Elsewhere in the US, Florida’s Santa Rosa County has reported its first case of the virus, according to the Florida Department of Health.

  As the number of cases soars in France (more than 400 cases reported), the French press reported that a lawmaker named Jean-Luc Reitzer has tested positive and is seriously ill, making him the first French lawmaker to be infected with the virus. Earlier, we reported that 23 Iranian parliamentarians had contracted the virus.

  Meanwhile, a NorCal nurse who contracted the virus at work has some pretty harsh words for the CDC and the Trump Administration and the shortage of tests, as President Trump’s flippant treatment of the issue seems to have inflamed public sentiment.

  This week has been characterized by the explosion in cases and deaths outside China. As a reminder, here’s what the trajectory of new cases is looking like ex-China.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  * * *

  Update (1720ET): Santa Clara County has confirmed another six cases, bringing the countywide total to 20. Seven of those cases are of “unknown origin,” and it appears county health officials have no more insights on how those patients were infected.

  6 new cases in Santa Clara County, CA

  20 total

  7 of the cases are of unknown origin

  (from press conference)

  — Steve Lookner (@lookner) March 5, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Santa Clara County: “The risk of exposure to the virus is increasing” in the county

  (from press conference)

  — Steve Lookner (@lookner) March 5, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The county is recommending that organizers postpone any large gatherings…

  * * *

  Update (1645ET): Two more cases have been confirmed by the CDC in Texas’s Harris County, as a man and woman from the unincorporated area immediately northwest of the county have been confirmed to carry the virus, according to WFAA.

  Two people in northwest Harris County have tested positive for the coronavirus, according to Harris County Public Health.

  The tests have been verified by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

  These cases are travel-related and, at this time, there is no evidence of community spread. The man and woman live in the unincorporated area of northwest Harris County, outside the City of Houston.

  Fort Bend County also reported a presumptive positive case on Wednesday.

  “Since January, we have been at an elevated level of readiness to prepare for and respond to a positive case here in Harris County,” said Harris County Public Health Executive Director, Dr. Umair A Shah, MD, MPH. “We will continue to take action by identifying potential contacts and monitoring them closely.”

  HCPH officials said they understand residents will be concerned about local cases, but said 80-percent of people who have coronavirus experience mild to moderate symptoms and fully recover.

  Meanwhile, in NYC, Mayor de Blasio said city officials would ask visitors from five countries to “self-quarantine” if they happen to be in NYC. Sounds like a great way to spend a vacation abroad.

  Finally, President Trump caught some flak from reporters over VP Pence’s admission that the administration doesn’t have enough tests on hand to meet demand.

  JUST IN: @realDonaldTrump does not answer questions on why coronavirus test kits were not sent out sooner as @VP says there are not enough tests today to meet “anticipated demand.” @CBSNews pic.twitter.com/vFvGM3P81H

  — Paula Reid (@PaulaReidCBS) March 5, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

   

   

  * * *

  Update (1530ET): The government of the Palestinian territories confirmed Thursday that 7 cases of the coronavirus had been identified. In response, the government has banned all tourists for two weeks. The cases were all discovered in the Bethlehem area, a town south of Jerusalem that was, according to the New Testament, the town where Jesus was born.

  As the death toll in Italy, the epicenter of the outbreak in Europe and the broader Mediterranean area, climbs to 148 and the outbreaks in both Germany and France worsen, Paris officials have cancelled the Paris Marathon, postponing it until October.

  Oh, and here are some tweets from Dr. Tedros reiterating what he said earlier during Thursday’s WHO presser.

  We’re concerned that in some countries the level of political commitment & the actions that demonstrate that commitment don’t match the level of the threat we all face. This is
  NOT a drill
  NOT the time to give up
  NOT a time for excuses
  This is a time for pulling out all the stops

  — Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus (@DrTedros) March 5, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  * * *

  Update (1510ET): During a live update of the coronavirus situation in New Jersey, Lieutenant Gov. Sheila Oliver reportedly said that the state had identified a second “prospective” case.

  We now have our first presumptive case of coronavirus in New Jersey.

  Watch live as @NJDeptofHealth Commissioner Persichilli and I provide an update on #COVID19 and our preparedness efforts:https://t.co/3qjgiuYFpU

  — Lt. Governor Sheila Oliver (@LtGovOliver) March 5, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  This brings the total cases in the county to 51, with one additional death.

  * * *

  Update (1450ET): VP Mike Pence said Thursday that the Coast Guard had delivered coronavirus tests to the ‘Grand Princess’ cruise ship off the coast of San Francisco. Pence also admitted during an update from the White House task force that the CDC doesn’t have enough tests to meet anticipated demand going forward, while HHS Secretary Azar said earlier that 75,000 test kits would be shipped by the end of the week.

  This is really not helping the administration deflect criticisms that it failed to adequately prepare for the virus.

  Meanwhile, Washington’s King County, part of suburban Seattle, has just reported another 20 cases of Covid-19, increasing the state of Washington’s total by roughly 20%.

  Iranian diplomat Hossein Sheikholeslam, a former member of parliament and Iran’s former ambassador to Syria and current advisor to the foreign minister has died of coronavirus, becoming the latest senior government figure to die from the virus.

  Though dozens of cases have already been reported across California, San Francisco hotels had already reported 150k cancellations tied to the outbreak – and that was before discovering evidence of a potential community outbreak.

  150,000 hotel nights lost in SF alone due to coronavirus.

  One city. https://t.co/JG8wpAVSBK

  — Christopher Mims 🎆 (@mims) March 5, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  * * *

  Update (1450ET): This is extremely savage, even for Iran.

  The Saudi government denounced Iran on Thursday for allowing several Saudi citizens to enter the country without stamping their passports, a move that was likely deliberately intended to spread the virus to Saudi Arabia, Iran’s chief political and military rival in the region.

  • SAUDI ARABIA DENOUNCES IRAN FOR GRANTING SAUDI CITIZENS ENTRY WITHOUT STAMPING THEIR PASSPORTS AMID CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK -STATEMENT

  * * *

  Update (1430ET): The $8.3 billion emergency coronavirus funding package has passed the Senate, following a tweet from President Trump last night urging lawmakers to pass it, claiming he would sign it once it hit his desk. Presumably, that’s still the plan.

  According to CNN, the agreement provides $7.8 billion in appropriations to address the outbreak of coronavirus as well as an authorization for $500 million in mandatory spending to finance a telehealth program intended to expand access to diagnostic services.

  In other news: Mayor Breed has confirmed that the two cases in San Francisco are examples of community transmission, and are unrelated, suggesting that a larger outbreak is already underway in the city. The first patient is a man in his 90s who is in serious condition with underlying health conditions. The second person is a woman in her 40s who is in fair condition.

  Gav. Newsom and the CDC, meanwhile, said they’re still working to find “the best location” for the “Grand Princess” to dock as 35 passengers are reportedly exhibiting flu-like symptoms, though at least two said earlier that they were tested and cleared.

  Oddly, in other news, Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette said Thursday that SARS drugs could be used to treat the coronavirus, before adding that the outbreak will have only a ‘marginal’ impact on oil demand.

  Mr. Secretary, this is not the time to be talking your book.

  * * *

  Update (1415ET): San Francisco is already described by many as a dystopian nightmare city, a living testament to a future where wealth inequality has reached such exaggerated extremes that a clear caste system has emerged, dominated by an elite group of tech billionaires and multimillionaires.

  And now, it also has the coronavirus.

  • SAN FRANCISCO HAS 2 CASES OF CORONAVIRUS, MAYOR SAYS

  Mayor London Breed is holding a press conference on the situation. Watch live below:

  Update from San Francisco leaders on local response and preparedness efforts regarding novel coronavirus (COVID-19) https://t.co/043mhKDxaQ

  — London Breed (@LondonBreed) March 5, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  * * *

  Update (1355ET): Now that Cuomo’s latest update is over, we have some more information about the 9 new cases confirmed in New York State.

  Eight of the new cases are in Westchester, connected to Lawrence Garbuz, the New Rochelle-based lawyer, while the ninth is on Long Island, Cuomo said. Garbuz’s wife, son and daughter have all tested positive, as has a friend of Garbuz’s, his wife and three of their four kids.

  A neighbor who drove Garbuz to the hospital has also been infected. Because he’s suffering from an underlying respiratory issue, Garbuz is being treated at a hospital in Upper Manhattan, while the rest of the patients are self-isolating. The patient on Long Island has also been hospitalized, though few details were given about that case.

  Two students at Yeshiva University’s Washington Heights campus are being “evaluated” after possibly being exposed via Garbuz’s son, along with seven of Garbuz’s co-workers and an intern.

  The governor told residents to stay calm, though according to reports the hysteria has already erupted in Westchester.

  “Here the facts do not merit the level of anxiety that we are seeing…I believe it’s being generated because…people don’t know the truth, they don’t know the facts. I’m a little bit perturbed about the daily angst,” Cuomo said.

  Earlier, NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio confirmed two new cases in the five boroughs: A man in his 40s, and a woman in her 80s, who are both in intensive care.

  * * *

  Update (1330ET): The Southeastern Nevada Health District has confirmed that Nevada has indeed recorded its first case of the coronavirus, according to the Las Vegas Sun.

  Judging by the description, the patient, who is a Clark County resident (most of the county, but not all, is in the city of Las Vegas), is a high-risk patient: He’s in his mid-50s and has an underlying health condition. He also recently traveled to Washington State and Texas. Texas recently reported its first travel-associated case in Houston, and community spread is already believed to be happening in Washington State.

  Here’s more from the Sun:

  The Health District was working with its health care partners and leading the effort to quickly identify close contacts of the patient, officials said. Those exposed to the patient were being asked to self-quarantine, officials said.

  Test results are considered “presumptive positive” until confirmed by the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, officials said. It should take 24 to 48 hours for the CDC to confirm the results, officials said.

  The patient was identified through the VA Southern Nevada Healthcare System, said Shelbie Bostedt, a spokeswoman for U.S. Rep. Steven Horsford.

  Horsford said in a statement that he was working the Gov. Steve Sisolak’s office, the VA and the Health District to stay apprised of the situation. “I take the safety of all Nevadans seriously,” he said.

  The Health District said the immediate risk from the virus to the general public in Clark County is low at this time. No community spread has ben identified at this time, officials said.

  In other news, France has confirmed its 423rd case, up 138 from late Wednesday, according to local health officials. In total, seven have died.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  * * *

  Update (1300ET): Bernie Sanders has cancelled an upcoming Mississippi rally. Interestingly enough, the coronavirus is only one reason. The Sanders campaign has apparently realized that any more effort campaigning in Mississppi would be wasted – Democrats in the state are mostly black and will back Biden by a massive margin.

  Instead, he’s going “all in” on the Midwest as his best shot at the nomination.

  * * *

  Update (1250ET): During yet another press conference (the fourth in roughly 36 hours), NY Governor Andrew Cuomo just announced that the number of confirmed coronavirus cases in his state has nearly doubled to 22.

  BREAKING: Gov. Andrew Cuomo announces that there are 11 new cases of novel coronavirus reported in Westchester County, New York City and Long Island. https://t.co/oXKxkKrm1m pic.twitter.com/wlZhBMUf96

  — ABC News (@ABC) March 5, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  * * *

  Update (1230ET): Illinois has confirmed 5 more cases of Covid-19, bringing the US case total to 159.

  Over in the UK, the Telegraph reports that a patient has died from the virus, marking the first death in the UK as the number of confirmed cases nears 100.

  In other news, the Ultra Music Festival in Miami has been postponed until next year.

  As we noted earlier, Cali Gov. Gavin Newsom has ordered the ‘Grand Princess’ cruise ship to remain offshore until all its passengers can be tested for the virus. We were one of the first media organizations to link the death of a 71-year-old man in California to the investigation into a previous voyage of the cruise ship and its connection to one of the patients.

  Now, Fox 2 KTVU is reporting that several passengers aboard the ship are displaying flu-like symptoms.

  In fact, two women have posted a YouTube video from their cabin, saying they are experiencing typical cold symptoms, but that they do not have a fever. They said in the video that they were tested for the virus, but told they didn’t have it.

  In other news, Hawaii has become the fourth state to declare a state of emergency over the virus, even though no cases have been confirmed in Hawaii yet, despite several scares. But Hawaii Gov. David Ige said the declaration would allow the state to better prepare.

  Regarding the latest case confirmed in California, that of an LAX airport screener, officials reportedly can’t tell if he contracted the virus at work, or “in the community” – which is extremely discouraging, if you ask us.

  Cali has reported 53 cases so far.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  The Grand Princess currently has 2,500 passengers. The number of crew is unclear.

  In a statement, Princess Cruises said there are no confirmed cases and that only 100 individuals have been “identified for testing.”

  “There are fewer than 100 guests and crew identified for testing, including all in-transit guests… those guests and crew who have experienced influenza-like illness symptoms on this voyage, and guests currently under care for respiratory illness,” the statement said.

  So Newsom is going to let thousands de-board after testing a smattering of 100 people out of more than 3,000. Sounds like a great ‘containment’ plan.

  We’re also starting to wonder how Carnival Cruise, which owns Princess cruises, is going to deal with this latest crisis.

  * * *

  Update (1220ET): As more workers are being told to work from home and more schools, events and businesses close around the world, Seattle has just closed 26 schools – the entire school district – for two weeks.

  * * *

  Update (1215ET): Italy’s national death toll has just taken another leap higher: Officials are now reported a new total of 148 deaths, following the disclosure of 25 deaths in Lombardy about an hour ago. Another couple of dozen deaths have apparently been recorded since.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

   

  Italy might want to consider taking a page out of Iran’s playbook and lying about the numbers.

  Speaking of Iran, neighboring Iraq has just reported another three cases, bringing its total confirmed to 38.

  Before we go, we wanted to mention one final comment from Dr. Tedros from Thursday’s Trump-shading, China-praising, WHO press conference.

  After Dr. Tedros chided world leaders for not doing enough, while simultaneously claiming that the world is well-prepared for the virus, the good doctor claimed that while we’re not quite at ‘pandemic’ level yet (a fact that’s disputed by many experts, who believe we are indisputably in the midst of a pandemic) there are “very concerning signs”.

  * * *

  Update (1120ET): Italian health officials have reported 25 more deaths on the Lombardy region of northern Italy – the worst-hit region. Deaths in this region alone have climbed to 98, bringing Italy’s national total to 132.

  * * *

  Update (1100ET): The UK has reported that total coronavirus cases have risen to 115 from 85 earlier on Thursday, making the UK the latest European nation to see its total confirmed cases break above 100.

  In the corporate sphere, accounting and consulting firm Ernst & Young sent around 1,500 employees from its Madrid offices home on Thursday after a staffer was confirmed to have contracted the virus. Wal-Mart is restricting all cross-border travel to only “business-critical” trips.

  As of March 5, the CDC has confirmed 100 cases in its lab, the agency said, meaning some cases reported by the states have yet to be ‘officially’ confirmed. It has also confirmed another death, bringing the total to 10 (meaning one reported death has yet to be officially confirmed). DHS said US has no plans at this time to lift China travel restrictions.

  WHO’s Dr. Tedros said Thursday during the NGOs daily presser that now is the time to “pull out all the stops” to combat the virus – which is ironic, considering the agency won’t officially label the outbreak a ‘pandemic’, even though experts in the US have told the Washington Post and other media orgs that it is undoubtedly a pandemic. They also added that there’s “no evidence” the virus has been spread from a human to a dog, despite earlier reports.

  WHO added that heads of state must “take responsibility” for their virus response (obviously a snipe at President Trump, whom critics have accused of ‘denying’ the existence of the virus’.

  Tedros also threatened to “name names” of governments that aren’t doing enough to prepare for the outbreak during his next press conference.

  The organization also has found no evidence the virus will behave differently in different climates, even as its spread across Africa has been notably slow.

  EU officials are reportedly considering pressing retired health-care workers back into service as a ‘response’ to the virus. Hopefully, the elderly nurses and doctors aren’t left to catch the virus and die.

  * * *

  Update (1035ET): Another Italy update…

  • ITALY TO ASK EU FOR GO AHEAD TO RAISE BUDGET DEFICIT BY 0.35 PERCENTAGE POINTS OF GDP TO TACKLE CORONAVIRUS  GOVT SOURCE

  Unsurprising given that lawmakers approved more than the recommended €5 billion.

  * * *

  Update (1025ET): Xinhua reports 16 new cases have been confirmed in Lebanon, more than doubling the case total to 31.

  • Xinhua: Lebanon’s COVID-19 cases rise to 16

  In other news, Italy has dedicated more money to its coronavirus response than it initially expected. .

  • ITALY TO ALLOCATE EU7.5B FOR VIRUS RESPONSE STIMULUS: ANSA

   * * *

  Update (1015ET): As we move closer to half of states having confirmed cases of their own, the Nevada Independent reported that Nevada officials had identified the first case of the virus in the state just minutes after Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee confirmed the first case in his state.

  • NEVADA SEES FIRST CASE OF CORONAVIRUS IN PATIENT: NEV. IND.

  17 states now have confirmed cases of Covid-19.

   * * *

  Update (1010ET): Tennessee has confirmed is first case, according to media reports.

  • FIRST CONFIRMED CASE OF CORONAVIRUS IN TENNESSEE: WKRN-ABC

  The reports were almost immediately confirmed by the governor.

  #Breaking Gov. Bill Lee announces first confirmed case of #Coronavirus in Tennessee

  — Arianna Poindexter (@AriannaWMC5) March 5, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  * * *

  Update (1000ET): The Pentagon is reportedly tracking 12 individuals who may be infected with the coronavirus.

  • PENTAGON IS TRACKING 12 POSSIBLE COVID-19 CASES, OFFICIAL SAYS

  * * *

  Update (0930ET): France health officials have reported another 2 deaths, bringing the death toll in Europe’s second-largest economy to at least six.

  We also have some more details on the first case in South Africa, which we noted earlier on Thursday shortly after the news broke: SA’s News 24 has some more information on the case: It’s a 38-year-old man who had recently traveled to Italy.

  Italy and Iran remain two of the most commonly-cited spreaders, as travelers around the world are bringing the virus home after trips to northern Italy.

  The man and his wife were among a group of 10 who returned from Italy on March 1. 

  Yet the government insists it doesn’t expect more cases as South Africa’s summer season is typically inhospital to viral outbreaks. Given the surprising lack of spread in Africa so far – which some fear might be a result of low testing rates – they might have a point.

  * * *

  Update (0920ET): Two Italian Red Crossvolunteers have tested positive while another 140 have been deemed “at risk” for infection. Trump “Iran whisperer” Brian Hook said Thursday that Iran had rejected the State Department’s offer of assistance.

  Meanwhile, NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio has shared some more details about the two new cases confirmed in New York, including confirming that investigators haven’t been able to trace the source of the infection, suggesting that an uncontained outbreak is already underway in NYC.

  There are two new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in New York City. One new patient is a man in his 40s, and one new patient is a woman in her 80s.

  Neither patient has a connection to travel nor any of the other local individuals diagnosed with COVID-19.

  — Mayor Bill de Blasio (@NYCMayor) March 5, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Since they haven’t traveled, the patients were almost certainly infected in the US, and possibly in NYC.

  * * *

  Update (0850ET): Yesterday, we pointed out that the first fatality reported in California appeared to be the same patient – a 71-year-old man – whom state officials had said recently traveled aboard a cruise ship called the “Grand Princess”. The ship, which was ironically on its way to dock in San Francisco at the time, was ordered to remain offshore. According to USA Today, officials confirmed on Wednesday that the ship will not return to port until testing of everyone on board can be carried out.

  And just like that, the US has its own cruise ship emergency, though it appears authorities are learning from the mistakes made by Japanese health officials during the ‘Diamond Princess’ fiasco (to be sure, the US clearly violated quarantine by transporting sick passengers back to the US).

  Gov. Newsom said the state would scramble to test the passengers as quickly as possible.

  “We will be able to test very quickly… to determine if these individuals that are symptomatic just have traditional colds or the flu or may have contracted the COVID-19 virus,” Newsom said.

  We’ll keep an eye on that – we suspect we might have more cases to report soon.

  Over the last hour or so, some more virus-linked headlines have hit the tape.

  • South Africa has reported its first case of the virus.
  • New Delhi has shut down primary schools as virus spreads in India.
  • Confirmed cases of the virus have doubled in the Netherlands to 82
  • US official ‘concerned’ about health of Iranian detainees.

  We’ll be back with more updates shortly.

  * * *

  Update (0840ET): Italy has postponed a referendum to reduce the number of lawmakers, a hot-button local issue that is at the crux of a government reform agenda pushed by the Five Star Movement. 

  • ITALY GOVT TO POSTPONE MARCH 29 REFERENDUM ON CUT IN NUMBER OF PARLIAMENTARIANS DUE TO CORONAVIRUS – SOURCES

  * * *

  Update (0822ET): As China continues to roll out new restrictions on foreign travelers, all while gloating about the world’s inability to contain the outbreak that China unleashed, Global Times editor Hu Xijin tweeted Thursday morning that he was “calling on” the Chinese government to impose 14-day quarantines for everybody traveling from the US.

  US CDC’s passive attitude in tallying/disclosing infection number, and Trump administration’s attempt to downplay the epidemic is disturbing. I have called on Chinese local governments to implement 14-day quarantine for all people coming from the US.

  — Hu Xijin 胡锡进 (@HuXijin_GT) March 5, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  China managed to stop the virus only by restricting the movements of roughly half its population. Democracies like the US unfortunately don’t have that power.

  * * *

  Update (0720ET): NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio has apparently just announced during an appearance on “Morning Joe” that NYC has confirmed 2 more cases, raising the citywide total to 4 and the state-wide total to 13, per the NYT.

  BREAKING: @NYCMayor announces two new #coronavirus cases in NYC on Morning Joe just now. Source says it’s a man in his 40s and a woman in her 80s. That brings the city’s total positive tests up to four.

  — Julia Marsh (@juliakmarsh) March 5, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The new cases include a man in his 40s and a woman in her 80s.

  * * *

  With stock futures once again pointing to a massive drop at the open, the brief respite provided by Joe Biden’s political comeback has faded as Americans brace for the outbreak by, among other things, hoarding Purell, while California and others threaten to prosecute sellers caught gouging prices on essentials as people across the country stock up.

  More US companies have cancelled events: Last night, Google said it would cancel its developer conference and Netflix has cancelled SXSW screenings. In London, HSBC has evacuated its entire research department and parts of its Canary Wharf trading floor, Financial News reports. A Facebook contractor has been infected in the company’s Seattle office. Microsoft, Amazon and Facebook have all asked their Seattle employees to work from home.

  Since midday on Wednesday, the virus death toll in the US has held steady at 11. But there’s no denying the reality that coronavirus hysteria has arrived in America. Last night, California declared a state of emergency, joining Florida and Washington State.

  And with cases confirmed in New York, Rhode Island and New Jersey, the virus has officially gone bi-coastal.

  Globally, the number of confirmed cases has surpassed 95,000, and the global death toll is north of 3,000. China remains by far the worst hit, with 80,410 cases, while South Korea is No. 2 with 5,766. They’re followed by Italy and Iran.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Courtesy of the FT

  In addition to declaring the state of emergency, Cali Gov. Gavin Newsom ordered that a cruise ship – the ‘Grand Princess’ – preparing to dock in San Francisco be held off the coast of California after the one fatality in California was linked to a previous voyage on the ship.

  Late yesterday, New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy announced that local health officials had discovered the first “presumptive” case of the virus in Bergen County, a suburb of New York City. The individual, a male in his 30s, has been hospitalized in the county since March 3. The “presumptive” case was initially tested at a local New Jersey lab

  Tonight, Acting Governor @LtGovOliver and I are announcing the first presumptive positive case of novel coronavirus, or #COVID19, in New Jersey. The individual, a male in his 30s, is hospitalized in Bergen County and has been hospitalized since March 3rd. pic.twitter.com/E2QtB1Wzut

  — Governor Phil Murphy (@GovMurphy) March 5, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  We take this situation very seriously and have been preparing for this for weeks. I urge residents to remain calm.

  The investigation is underway & more information will be released when it becomes available.

  For more info:
  💻visit https://t.co/UyohzX5yGk
  ☎️call 1-800-222-1222

  — Governor Phil Murphy (@GovMurphy) March 5, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  According to the CDC, 14 US states have reported either confirmed or “presumptive” cases of the virus.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Already, the number of confirmed cases in the US is north of 150 (including the 48 evacuees).

  Yesterday, VP Pence and HHS Secretary Azar promised that new screening measures would be applied to travelers from South Korea and Italy. Australia on Thursday joined the list of countries restricting travel by barring visitors from South Korea. Meanwhile, in a glimpse of what’s to come for the airline industry, which could be in for a $100 billion hit tied to the coronavirus, the UK regional airline Flybe collapsed.

  As the outbreak appears to wane in China, President Xi has cancelled a state visit to Japan because of the rapidly circulating outbreak.

  Though it wasn’t all good news out of Beijing: Last night, the western press reported that a 36-year old man thought to have recovered from coronavirus had died from respiratory failure in Wuhan five days after being discharged. It’s alarming because the man was young and otherwise healthy – characteristics that should have made him particularly resilient to the virus.

  Also, Beijing has imposed a new rule on residents: Eat alone, keep away from co-workers, and under no circumstances should you share plates with others (popular in so called ‘hot pot’ dishes and other communal-type meals).

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Much to the chagrin of his political allies, President Trump continued his campaign to minimize the severity of the outbreak during an appearance on Hannity Wednesday night when he said he had a “hunch” the real mortality rate for the virus is closer to 1% than the 3.4% estimate shared by Dr. Tedros during Wednesday’s WHO Press conference.

  Trump to Hannity on WHO saying coronavirus death rate is 3.4%: “I think the 3.4% number is really a false number. Now this is just my hunch, but based on a lot of conversations … personally, I’d say the number is way under 1%.”

  Astoundingly irresponsible. pic.twitter.com/uC9c03zX31

  — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 5, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  In South Korea, mass testing has confirmed more than 6,000 cases as of the health officials’ second update on Thursday, as well as more than 40 deaths. Italy has confirmed more than 3,000 cases, along with more than 100 deaths. Elsewhere in Asia, Malaysia has confirmed another 5 cases, bringing its national total to 55. Travelers who have recently visited any hot spots – northern Italy, Hokkaido (in Japan), Tehran and Daegu – will be temporarily banned from entering Malaysia, unless they are Malaysian citizens.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Officially, Iran has confirmed 92 deaths and 2,922 cases. But the Washington Post reported last night that data obtained from a string of hospitals in Tehran suggests that the epidemic has spread far more widely than the government has acknowledged.

  CNN reports that the case total in India, the world’s second most populous country, has climbed to 29 (three have already recovered). In response, India has started screening all passengers who arrive at its airports for the virus. The Indian government is also preparing to evacuate its citizens from Iran, becoming the first country to plan an evacuation from the epicenter of the virus in the Middle East.

  Based on the data, which was given to WaPo by a UK-based activist, the true case count in Iran is probably closer to 30,000 than the 3,000 cases counted by the government. And the death toll is likely closer to 1,000 than 100 – after all, the BBC reported last week that the true death toll was already north of 200 days ago.

  Whatever the real number, as more senior government officials catch the virus, the Islamic Republic has kicked off its “national mobilization” scheme in which 300,000 medical teams joined by voluntary members of the IRGC – the Revolutionary Guard – will monitor families across the country and take unexplained action to help limit the spread. The teams will be stationed in “medical facilities, schools and military bases” across Iran. The Iranian government has also started to limit travel within the country after suspending issuing visas for travelers from other hot spots.

  With 15 cases confirmed in Israel, the West Bank city of Bethlehem has closed all mosques and churches, setting of a controversy in the town where Jesus was reportedly born, Middle East Eye reports.

  Over in Europe, Switzerland reported its first death overnight; health officials have confirmed 80 cases across the small alpine state. In Italy, where the number of cases climbed above 3,000 (total: 3,089) and deaths surpassed 100 (total: 107), Deputy Economy Minister Laura Castelli said the government could increase the size of the package to €5 billion, according to the FT. In the UK, PM Boris Johnson said Thursday morning during an interview with ITV that the best thing Britons can do to prevent the spread of the virus is to “just wash our hands,” Johnson said. He also stressed that for most people who catch the virus, this will be a “mild to moderate” illness. The number of confirmed cases in the UK climbed to 88 on Thursday. ITV also reported. Six of those were reported in Scotland, 2 in Wales and three in Northern Ireland.

  In London, en employee in HSBC’s research department has reportedly tested positive for the virus, Reuters reported.

  The latest increase in cases comes as the NHS warns that it doesn’t have enough nurses, ITV reports. Despite efforts to fill positions, more than 43,000 vacancies remain across the UK.

  Meanwhile, UK Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty confirmed that human-to-human transmission is ongoing in the UK, before adding that the UK is now “mainly in the second stage” of its plan to tackle coronavirus, which involves delaying the spread for as long as possible to stop the virus from overwhelming the country’s hospital system.

  Elsewhere in Europe, Spain confirmed 40 new cases and 1 new death bringing its total to 248 and death toll to 3. Belgium reports 27 new cases raising total to 50.

  After all, since western democracies simply can’t undertake the same heavy handed response imposed by China (though the west has the advantage of jumping on the problem instead of choosing to ignore it for weeks), the west is going to need to accept the fact that the virus will likely become significantly more widespread.

  Before we go, we’d like to leave readers with a little levity. Are you a recent college grad searching for a business plan?

  Here’s a freebie, courtesy of the CCP:

  Xuzhou City in E #China’s Jiangsu, has put into use the country’s first self-vending machine that dispenses #masks. With a daily limit of 800 masks, this tool has been in use since Mar 2. Residents can buy two N95 masks using their ID cards every 24 hours for 12 yuan ($1.72). pic.twitter.com/V3Q60DvuDi

  — Global Times (@globaltimesnews) March 5, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 03/05/2020 – 19:41

• "It's All Just The Same Broken System" – Exposing Greenspan's Moon Cult
  “It’s All Just The Same Broken System” – Exposing Greenspan’s Moon Cult

  Authored by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investments,

  Taking another look at what I wrote about repo and the latest developments yesterday, it may be worthwhile to spend some additional time on the “why” as it pertains to so much determined official blindness, an unshakeable devotion to otherwise easily explained lunar events.

  The short version: monetary authorities as well as the “experts” describe almost perfectly risk averse behavior among the central money dealing system in outbreaks like September’s repo – but then bend over backward trying to come up with any other kind of explanation for it. The problem must be some complicated stew of otherwise benign technical issues because there’s no possible way, they tell themselves, it can be anything else. Not with bank reserves abundantly over a trillion (now rising again) and Jay Powell pleasantly whispering in their ears about the unemployment rate every other day.

  It takes on religious, cult-like properties to try so hard to prove (to themselves) what has already been so thoroughly disproven.

  Start with the bond market and interest rates. Over the last half decade or so, ever since Janet Yellen’s ill-advised first rate hike in December 2015 amidst a near recession, a move she immediately regretted, central bankers and Bond Kings have been on a mission to convince the world monetary policy was a tremendous success. It had to have been because it was the biggest thing ever devised and those devising it had promised it was so big the flood of “easing” couldn’t possibly fail.

  Something about a printing press.

  Anyway, that’s not logic so much as self-delusion and rationalizing; the fallacy of sunk costs. Rather than recognize all the warning signs that it all had indeed failed, policymakers and Economists instead convinced themselves it just needed more time.

  Except, by 2015 and 2016 time was running out (see: Trump, Donald, and Britain, exit). People were growing anxious as even politicians like President Obama had exhausted what had been a deep reservoir of patience (thus, his June 2016 comment about a manufacturing “magic wand”).

  Along came 2017 and Reflation #3 – just in time to be hyped into that very mode of success all officialdom had been waiting on. President Trump was only too happy to take credit. It was given a catchy name, globally synchronized growth, and described in the most emphatic of terms. The game changer had arrived, the final end to what had by then been far too many years of lethargy and uncertainty.

  What that would’ve meant for the bond market was clear: an explosion in yields. The combination of risky opportunities (recovery), the end of macro slack (inflation), and a resolute central bank aggressively trying to keep it all within bounds (hawkishness) would lead to the BOND ROUT!!!!

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  It never happened. Nope. Not even when yields were rising, as I wrote in March 2018 amidst what had been true hysteria:

  No, when they call for an end to the 30-year bond bull market (though there is no such thing as a bond bull market) they are claiming the reverse to March 2008; a paradigm shift of near or equal potency. An end to the crisis at long last.

  The problem with such an idea is that it just doesn’t appear anywhere. Markets have been trading on mild “reflation” sentiment, that’s it. And there really isn’t much conviction behind it, either.

  The curves uniformly said that the game changer scenario just wasn’t playing out. By flattening where they did, around 3% nominal, it was a very clear signal that something was still wrong. The same thing that had been wrong the entire time since August 2007. 

  But, since central bankers had so much riding on a positive outcome, they reversed engineered persistently low bond yields into something they could spin as consistent with globally synchronized growth and the tremendously optimistic factors behind the BOND ROUT!!!!

  Yes, term premiums.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  According to the conventional theory, since yields weren’t actually rising in the manner they “should” have been the only way to decompose them without disproving the whole game was to claim, without outside corroboration, by subjective statistical modeling only, inflation expectations really were rising, that the bond market really was figuring on much higher short-term money rates due to rate hikes, but that it was also experiencing some revelation of past forward guidance (mostly Delphic, but maybe some Odyessean, too) which only in an Economist’s mind can be priced out as a negative term premium.

  Common sense dictated that low and, since November 2018, falling yields would have been the product of persistently low and falling inflation expectations plus persistently low and falling future short-term rates. Term premiums simply wouldn’t factor – unless you are desperately trying to accomplish some other goal than honest analysis.

  The thing is, as I pointed out last August as the shockingly “unexpected” drop in yields was happening, we have markets for both of those yield components. They tell us within all reasonable standards what yields are made of. And it wasn’t falling term premiums.

  The reason it has to be term premiums is because Bernanke, Janet Yellen, or Jay Powell all say inflation is going to rise and so will short-term interest rates. Guaranteed. Take it to the bank. The Fed will therefore be hiking short-term rates and since they don’t believe the bond market would ever, ever disagree with them, process of elimination, it therefore must be term premiums that are causing yields to fall (when these same people say they should be rising).

  Even last August, when the yield curve was at its most public (other than now), these people continued to talk about negative term premiums (related, of course, to R*) seriously. No matter how much and many events go against them, they never, ever change their view. Again going back to what I wrote in March 2018:

  March 2008 was a very long time ago, and the technocrats have been repeatedly predicting its mirror positive image almost every year since. Having surpassed a decade now, there is religious fervor about it. It doesn’t matter how much the yield curve collapses on the narrative (the long end, even as it rises somewhat in nominal terms, continues its stubborn and obvious resistance against the idea), the BOND ROUT!!! like actual inflation is certain for tomorrow.

  Interest rates have nowhere to go but up no matter how low they keep going. The bond market, like repo problems, are all dissected from this other, deeply unscientific perspective. Central bankers start, not end, with the premise that the world is fixed and awesome – and then seek to validate this predetermined conclusion.

  But, because it is a faulty and ultimately incorrect conclusion, it takes some real mental gymnastics and tortured logic to get back to it. Repo is nothing more than technical factors. Falling bond yields are really a good sign, even more negative term premiums. The BOND ROUT!!!! is still penciled in for tomorrow.

  No, seriously:

  A growing chorus of strategists and money managers is voicing concern as investors charge into government debt at seemingly any price.

  The fear is they’re exposing themselves to interest rate risk like never before, risking a precipitous slump on even a modest bump in yields. One breakthrough in the fight against the illness, or a sign the global economy is recovering faster-than-expected, might be all it takes.

  That wasn’t written in March 2018 nor March 2019. It was published yesterday, of all days. And here’s the kicker, “The moves highlight belief in some corners that policy action will stoke growth, creating upward pressure for stocks and bond yields.”

  Even now, after the clunker that was Powell’s unscheduled fifty, after last year’s three rate cuts that no one bothers to remember, the myth of monetary potency remains imagined as the godhead of the maestro’s legacy. No matter how many times all its central tenets disproven, the cult remains stocked with true believers.

  These people – central bankers, Bond Kings, Economists, repo experts – they all claim that because the moon is an ages-old symbol of the nighttime that when it suddenly appears in the sky during the day, as happens, that when it does daytime is actually night. The fact that no one has any lights on is explained by technical factors like some imagined, regression-deduced shortage of light bulbs rather than the obviousness of the real time of day. The Fed moves to renew its abundant light bulb policy rather than recognize and adjust its clock. 

  Moon = night. QE = success.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  So steadfastly convinced that the moon must only be a nighttime phenomenon, repo has to be technical factors rather than the more obvious risk aversion behavior. Low interest rates have to be negative term premiums (how negative will term premiums have to be if, really when, nominal yields are themselves?) instead of the deepest, most sophisticated combination of markets in human history describing, point blank, rapidly rising liquidity risks and the long run consequences of them.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Thus, nothing changes. Nothing did in 2017, that’s for sure. It’s all just the same broken system. That alone is why there was never a BOND ROUT!!! as well as why there won’t be. All these things go hand in hand; broken repo and low yields, risk aversion and the lack of inflationary acceleration.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  If it wasn’t for this Greenspan Moon Cult these problems might’ve been solved, at least properly recognized, a long time ago.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 03/05/2020 – 19:25

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• Erdogan Or Erdo-gone In Turkey?
  Erdogan Or Erdo-gone In Turkey?

  Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

  “Whom the gods would destroy they first make mad”

  – Henry Wadsworth Longfellow “Prometheus”

  It looks like Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is headed for the political gallows a lot quicker than I ever thought.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  His offensive in Idlib has bogged down. And a day before he’s scheduled to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow Erdogan Turkish parliament degrades quickly as opposition speaks out against his Syria campaign.

  This prompted a fistfight.

  When a member of #Turkey’s Parliament, #Engin_Özkoç bravely criticised #Erdoğan’s operation & involvement in #Syria, members of the #AKP took offence & launched a fist fight in Parliament against him & other CHP members. https://t.co/mnSwrxERsg

  — Hala Jaber (@HalaJaber) March 4, 2020

  Now, apparently fistfights in Turkish parliament aren’t that uncommon since one took place back in 2016 over the controversial changes to the constitution Erdogan rammed through back then.

  It’s clear Erdogan’s support at home is deteriorating quickly. And his push into Syria is a grave miscalculation as I’ve noted in other posts (here and here).

  I spoke with Sputnik Radio’s newest show, Political Misfits, on this making the point that Erdogan is still convinced he can fill the vacuum left by a retreating U.S. to become the regional overlord in a new Middle East.

  Yes, really, he’s that delusional.

  The noises coming out of Moscow for today’s meeting is that not only will Erdogan not get any of Idlib from Putin, he’ll lose everything else in the process.

  Remember, Russia holds a lot of sway over the Turkish economy and, as such, controls a fair amount of Erdogan’s political capital hostage. No matter how he tries to spin this, he’s the aggressor here and Putin knows he’s an unreliable partner.

  The Russian Ministry of Defense isn’t playing games. In the same way that they systematically revealed the real narrative of U.S. support of the Syrian Civil War during the early stages of their military intervention it is now doing the same thing to Erdogan’s betrayal of the 2018 Sochi agreement.

  #SYRIA | 🇷🇺 MoD: #Turkey has allowed its observation posts, established under 2018 #Sochi deal, to virtually merge with #terrorist bases in #Idlib. In violation of international law it has deployed a strike force the size of a mechanised division there ➡️ https://t.co/s97qRUmLis pic.twitter.com/FPpiIufroA

  — Russian Embassy, Syria (@RusEmbSyria) March 4, 2020

  In all of this the Russians have been a source of the closest thing we get to real information from Syria. That this is never reported here in the West is criminal, but then again so is the campaign to destroy Syria.

  It’s been Russia that has consistently uncovered and disseminated early warnings of chemical weapons false flags, helping us to prove what our instincts tell us is true.

  And the standing of international organizations like the OPCW have suffered greatly. With the latest report of a failed chemical weapons attack by Turkish-backed jihadists in Saraqib, Putin now has more than enough ammo to use against Erdogan at the U.N. Security Council.

  And I expect that threat should be on the table when the two sit down to talk tomorrow.

  Since their rapprochement after Turkey shot down a Russian SU-24, Putin has willing to give Erodgan cover for his past crimes if his behavior dovetailed with Putin’s ultimate goal of restoring the territorial boundaries of Syria.

  Putin’s done this multiple times in order to keep the fighting to a minimum and find ways to get the situation resolved. But until Erdogan is defanged in Idlib there is no possibility of an end to the Syrian conflict.

  He’s the key, because without his acting as the tip of NATO’s spear, there is no appetite for taking this further.

  So now, with Erdogan’s behavior is in clear conflict with this the end is in sight. As I said in my last article, Putin may have misjudged Erdogan’s ambitions but he could have also been giving him just enough rope to hang himself with.

  And I believe Putin is near the point of seeing Erdogan as “Not Agreement Capable,” which is where he is with the United States.

  He, frankly, doesn’t have any other choice. This is likely Erdogan’s last of his nine political lives. Tomorrow’s meeting will tell the tale.

  Elijah Magnier is reporting a possible cease fire agreement but only if Turkey yields the entire M4 highway. In my opinion, that would be the equivalent of surrender terms.

  #Russia may accept a ceasefire with a guarantee M4 will be open IMMEDIATELY. Otherwise, it will be opened by fire, with a guarantee from #Turkey & deadline/schedule that all jihadists will be relocated from #Idlib. #Syria has the upper hand and doesn’t need to give concessions.

  — Elijah J. Magnier (@ejmalrai) March 4, 2020

  Autocracy is, at best, a meta-stable form of government. And Erdogan’s moves to concentrate power in his hands have pushed things in Turkey dangerously in that direction.

  Failure at this level of international high stakes poker usually ends badly for the guy who bets the farm on a bluff.

  *  *  *

  Join my Patreon if you like discussing world events without a filter.  Download and Install the Brave Browser if you think Silicon Valley has too much power.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 03/05/2020 – 02:00

• Who Or What Started The Wuhan Coronavirus Epidemic?
  Who Or What Started The Wuhan Coronavirus Epidemic?

  Authored by Professor Anthony Hall via AHTribune.com,

  On the Condemnation of “Conspiracy Theories” as a Device for Protecting Officialdom’s Lies, Disinformation, and Obfuscation.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  The Wuhan Coronavirus epidemic of 2019-20 is moving many markers where life merges into death, where truth merges into lies. At age 34, Dr. Li Wenliang drew attention in Wuhan to these moving markers. The disease Dr. Li sought to warn against ended up taking his life as the epidemic gained fatal traction.

  Before going down himself in the line of duty, Dr. Li faced a harsh reprimand from representatives of the Chinese Communist Party. Dr. Li was accused of spreading rumors and illegally threatening the social order with his tweets and posts and personal interventions. Nevertheless, Dr. Li was soon vindicated in calling attention to the coming plague.

  It did not take long before the appalling force of the illness demonstrated that Dr. Li was anything but a wayward conspiracy theorist. Instead, the evidence proved him right even as it proved his powerful detractors were both wrong and negligent in the face of a genuine menace.

  Dr. Li Wenliang is a martyr. It remains to be seen, however, how far the shadow of Dr. Li’s martyrdom will be cast.

  The Novel Coronavirus, COVID-19, is cutting a broad and deep swath though epidemiological history with uncertain impact on the viability of many families, communities, institutions, economies, and even countries starting with the most heavily populated nation on earth. Many fates are hanging in the balance, not the least of which is that of the communist government that has ruled China since the Maoist Revolution brought it to power in 1949.

  The new strain of Coronavirus has added novel genetic features to the same family of pathogens that brought the world the SARS crisis in 2002-3 and, a decade later, the less lethal MERS outbreak. This Novel Coronavirus strain, COVID-19, is showing itself to be much more contagious and lethal than was SARS and MERS.

  Some have anticipated that, if not dramatically countered, the Wuhan Coronavirus epidemic could be headed in the direction of the Spanish flu outbreak of 1918. This prediction flows from the assessment of, for instance, Prof. Gabriel Leung, Chair of Public Health Medicine at Hong King University. Looking at the very fast rate of COVID-19’s spread from human to human through the air, Dr. Leung challenged any residual sense of complacency. He anticipated a possible 60 per cent infection rate of the world’s entire population with deaths numbering in the many tens of millions.

  The so-called Spanish flu has set the bar for how severe and widespread a contagious plague can become. The pandemic of 1918 took more lives in one year than all deaths due to World War II. The Spanish flu of 1918 engendered more mortality in one year than the four peak years of the notorious Black Death Bubonic Plague that decimated Europe in the middle years of the fourteenth century. The worldwide pandemic of 1918 infected over a quarter of all people on earth. About 65 million people died from the illness.

  News reports from the ground zero area of the Wuhan Coronavirus epidemic demonstrate that the effects of the viral infection cut far and wide. Every facet of Chinese society is being challenged to the limit by a fast-spreading plague disseminating germs of destruction disrupting many biological, political, economic, and knowledge systems simultaneously.

  Questions about how to interpret the epidemic and how to explain to the public what is known or not known are quickly coming into focus. Who should be believed? Who is credible and who is not credible as the epidemic unfolds. What should be the role of social media and of whistle blowers in the process of deciding how to respond? What happens when genuine whistle blowers like Dr. Li are too quickly dismissed and reprimanded by ruling authorities as “conspiracy theorists”?

  An essential task that must be faced in this initial phase of this crisis is to develop an accurate explanation of where contagion came from and how the first victims of the Novel Coronavirus came to be infected. The need for some degree of certainty about the origins of the virus and its subsequent genesis is absolutely essential to the development of sound and appropriate responses. It would be highly irresponsible to rush ahead with the development of an overall strategy for dealing with the plague without making an honest attempt to get at the truth of how the contagion first came into existence.

  The importance of getting to the factual roots of what happened to put humanity on this epidemiological trajectory should be especially clear after the debacle of September 11, 2001. Without any sustained investigation of the 9/11 crimes, Americans were rushed into cycles of seemingly perpetual warfare abroad, police state and surveillance state interventions at home. This cycle of fast responses began within a month of 9/11 with a full-fledge military invasion of Afghanistan, an invasion that continues yet.

  When two US Senators, Patrick Leahy and Tom Daschle, sought to slow the rush of the US executive into emergency measures and war, they and the US Congress they served were hit hard by a military grade bioweapon, anthrax. The violent tactic of the saboteurs proved effective in easing aside close scrutiny that might have slowed down the fast approval by the end of October of Congress’s massive Patriot Act. 

  Since then a seemingly endless cycle of military invasions has been pushed forward in the Middle East and Eurasia. The emergency measure powers claimed by the executive branch of the US government extended to widespread illegal torture, domestic spying, media censorship and a meteoric rise in extrajudicial murders especially by drones. This list is far from complete.

  All of these crimes against humanity were justified on the basis of an unproven official explanation of 9/11.  Subsequent scholarly investigations have demonstrated unequivocally for the attentive that officialdom’s explanations of what transpired on the fateful day in September were wrong, severely wrong. The initial interpretations are strongly at variance with the evidentiary record available on the public record.

  We must not allow ourselves to be hoodwinked in the same manner once again. The stakes are too large, maybe even larger than was the case in 2001. The misinterpreted and misrepresented events of 9/11 were exploited in conformity with the “Shock Doctrine,” a strategy for instituting litanies of invasive state actions that the public would not otherwise have accepted.

  The conscientious portion of humanity, many of whose members have done independent homework of their own on the events of 9/11, will well understand the importance of identifying the actual originating source of the Wuhan Coronavirus epidemic. 

  No less than in the wake of the 9/11 debacle, there are grave dangers entailed in being too quick or too naïve or too trustful in immediately accepting as gospel fact the Chinese government’s initial explanations of the COVID-19 outbreak. Why not take the time to investigate and test the current interpretations of the authorities that proved themselves to be so wrong in their decision to reprimand Dr. Li?

  Especially when the stakes are extremely high, the need is great for objective, third-party adjudication to establish what really happened irrespective of official interpretations. History provides abundant evidence to demonstrate that official interpretations of transformative events often veer away from the truth in order to serve and protect the interests of entrenched power.

  All semblance of due process and the rule of law can quickly evaporate when powerful institutions advance interpretations of catastrophic events used to justify their own open-ended invocation of unlimited emergency measure powers. The well-documented examples of the misrepresentation and exploitation of the 9/11 debacle demonstrate well the severity of the current danger. The origins of the Wuhan Coronavirus epidemic have yet to be adequately addressed and explained by a panel of genuinely independent investigators.

  The Chinese Ambassador to the United States, Cui Tiankai, acknowledged on Feb. 9 on CBS’s Face the Nation that there is no certainty about the origins of COVID-19. When asked by CBS’s Margaret Brennan where the virus came from, the Chinese Ambassador responded, “We still don’t know yet.”

  Although media giants like the Washington Post have run interference to justify the claims of established authority in this fiasco, there is still a high level of uncertainty about what COVID-19 is, where it came from, and why it spread so quickly. What factors resulted in the genetic modifications determining the biological structure of the new Coronavirus strain? What happened in the biological journey from the SARS Coronavirus to the Coronavirus strain that triggered the epidemiological bombshell starting in Wuhan?

  Did the Chinese communist government have a role in creating COVID-19 either purposely or inadvertently? What did the Chinese government know when did its leadership know it? Such basic questions have yet to be objectively considered by a panel of genuinely independent experts not beholden to any centers of established authority, funding, publicity and political networking. 

  The need to transcend all conflict of interest in the formal investigation of this matter must somehow be realized if objectivity is to prevail in the process of unearthing, organizing and assessing the evidence. The primary objective of this process must be to bring out the truth, no matter how embarrassing such illuminations might be to the interests of entrenched power. A process must be initiated without any pandering to the political biases of institutions and individuals with much to protect, with major interests in determining the outcome of the investigations.

  One version of events is that the contagion began when some mutated viral disease strain jumped from a bat or a snake into the biological workings of one of more humans. This animal to human leap is supposed to have taken place in the precincts of Wuhan’s open-air traditional food market where bats, snakes, cats, raccoons, fish, possums and the like can be bought and sold.

  A growing perception of disbelief is developing in the face of the idea that all this mayhem started with a few people chomping down on some fatally infected critters purchased an open-air market. In fact, this explanation is becoming the subject of much satire and ridicule even as the horrifying nature of the unfolding of events is intensifying.  

  Another possible source of the contagion is the Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory, one of China’s most high-tech installations designed for biological research into the most deadly forms of viruses known to humankind. This research facility, with top level 4 containment capacities, emerged from the expansion and elaboration of an older agency known as the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  *(Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory)

  As shall be demonstrated, the Wuhan Institute of Virology is thought by some experts, including a prestigious group at the South China Technological University in Guangzhou, to be the probable source of the contaminant. As shall be demonstrated below, the Wuhan Institute of Virology and its outgrowth, The National Biosafety Laboratory, are thought by some to be integrated with more secretive sites where the military operations of China’s alleged biological warfare program are centered.

  A focus on the kind of procedures that take place at the Wuhan Institute of Virology begs the question of whether an accidental viral escape from this agency forms the primary origin of the epidemic. Another possibility is that some sort of power play within China’s ruling elite might have led to the decision to create and release a bioweapon in the heart of one of the most heavily populated zones on earth.

  Yet another possibility is that the Wuhan Coronavirus epidemic is part of some agenda of “hybrid warfare” by the US government against China. Speculation surrounding this scenario emphasizes that hundreds of US soldiers were in Wuhan in late October of 2019 for the World Military Games.

  As Mark Episkopos has argued in The National Interest, the theory that the US government is behind the spread of the COVID-19 Coronavirus has been well reported in some mainstream media venues in Russia. This “rumor” is also one that Chinese Ambassador to the United States, Cui Tiankai, specifically referred on CBS’s Face the Nation when he fended off the allegation that China’s biological warfare program was somehow implicated in the epidemic’s origins.

  One of those interviewed on the subject is Igor Nikulin. Mr Nikulin has argued, “Wuhan was chosen for the attack [by US military officials] because the local presence of the Wuhun Institute of Virology offers the Pentagon and CIA a convenient cover story about bio-experiments gone awry.”

  If it turns out the source of the Novel Coronavirus epidemic is a biological warfare weapon, yet another question concerns whether the attack germ is genetically engineered to target a specific ethnic group. Drawing on his observations of US biological research in some of the former republics of the Soviet Union, Nikulin remarked,

  the supposedly Pentagon-funded U.S. laboratories in Eurasia have been collecting and treating genetic material from Russian and Chinese populations to allegedly create an “ethnically specific” virus that only targets certain peoples.

  Episkopos adds that Nikulin’s observation are consistent with the position of Russian military expert, Viktor Baranets. Baranets has affirmed that biological warfare has become a new weapon “in the American fight for global supremacy against its main adversaries.” There is much evidence to indicate that one of the main thrusts of genetic research in biological warfare has long involved efforts to target specific ethnic groups for sickness and death. There are obvious reasons why those engaged in the development of biological weaponry would want to narrow their aim to envisaged enemies rather than breed germs to kill indiscriminately all humans in their path whether friend or foe.

  Lance Welton covers some supposedly unmentionable yet nevertheless contested topics in an article entitled, “Asians Far More Susceptible to Coronavirus Than Other Races, More Likely to Die.”

  Welton leaves aside the question of why it is that the COVID-19 seems to pack a much more virulent and lethal punch when it comes to the targeting of people sharing Chinese-Asian ancestry. The other side of the same coin is people of predominately European ancestry seem statistically to be much less at risk when it comes to succumbing to the epidemiological force of COVID-19.

  Welton has observed how difficult it is has become in the Occident even to raise issues publicly concerning the different vulnerabilities of different ethnic groups to certain diseases. He cites anecdotal evidence that, so far at least, all the deaths outside China have mostly taken the lives of ethnic Chinese people. From this observation Welton concludes that racial characteristics are a significant factor in determining vulnerability to COVID-19-inflicted disease.

  The fact that this subject is being so assiduously ignored by those engaged in the quest for political correctness leads Welton to comment,

  “It only goes to show how pathological our taboo on “race” has become. Race denial is so strong that possible race differences in the incidence of a disease cannot be mentioned, or even suggested.”

  Establishing New Domains of Hybrid Warfare

  The Wuhan Coronavirus epidemic of 2020 is causing the once-firm ground beneath many established institutions to shake uncontrollably. One of those institutions, the Chinese communist government, is encountering its Chernobyl moment.

  There are many consequences and implications of the epidemic that are already extending beyond China to the whole world. The epidemic is having significant implications for, for instance, the state of the Chinese and global economy, the future of the transportation industry, the future of tourism, the conditions of international relations, the state of censorship, the interaction between academic and military research, as well as the ongoing breakdown of trust in government. This list is far from complete.

  The remainder of this 6 part essay highlights the implications of the COVID-19 crisis for communicative interactions, especially in the public sphere. The issues to be addressed extend across social media and mainstream media. They touch on public education and different conceptions of the public interest.

  The analysis of the breakdown in public health raises questions about law enforcement. It raises related questions about the governance of professional associations, academic institutions as well as the public and private agencies with significant responsibilities in the arenas of certification and scientific publication.

  One of the primary areas of professional contention arising from the COVID-19 crisis involves the close connections between biological research aimed at finding preventions and cures for diseases and research aimed at creating biological weapons. Biological weapons can be designed with the goal of bringing about indiscriminate mass murder. They can also be used to bring about the targeted murder of specific human populations sharing common genetic attributes.

  Gradually a portion of the public is becoming aware that a conflict of interests exists between the military and public health applications of the microbiology field within the so-called life sciences. How many practitioners of the so-called life sciences are really devoting themselves to the death sciences? The public has reason to question, for instance, the procedures involved in the production of vaccines by an industry with one foot in the health care field and another foot in military research.

  Why should the public not fear that some practitioners in the field of microbiology might confuse their dual responsibilities in projects aimed at both saving and killing people? What is to be said of the development of vaccines, in some cases by the same people involved in genetically engineering the very diseases that vaccines are meant to protect against?

  Similarly, why should the public trust that we are being well served by systems of research primarily driven by the quest for lucrative patents to enrich their owners? Why shouldn’t the public suspect that we are being used as guinea pigs in experiments on human beings that continue to be perpetuated in the course of applied medical research regardless of the prohibitions that have been enacted? Did the Wuhan Coronavirus epidemic begin as an experiment on human subjects that got out of control?

  How many times can the public trust be betrayed before the habit ceases of giving possible professional offenders, including those in white lab coats, the benefit of the doubt? Where does the protection of the public interest and the common good fit into this complex and internally contradictory picture? 

  Where is there genuine accountability to a public required to support with our tax dollars scientific research that can result in both good and bad outcomes? Why does the financial return on this public investment so often end up in corporate and private hands whereas the liabilities and collateral damages accrued are expected to be absorbed by the public?  

  The fact that ground zero of the Novel Coronavirus is Wuhan, home of China’s newest and most sophisticated microbiology laboratory, naturally casts a shadow of doubt over narratives minimizing the role of human agency in creating the new strain of Coronavirus. Wuhan’s important role as a major Chinese research center, much of it secret and covert, has to be taken into account. Moreover, Wuhan just happens also to be the medical headquarters of the People’s Liberation Army.

  The possible bioweapon was originally labeled 2019-nCoV. Then the UN’s World Health Organization changed the formal name to COVID-19. Is the World Health Organization a PR adjunct of Big Pharma? How tight is the relationship between the WHO and the Chinese Communist Party?

  In an era of proliferating genetic engineering, how are governments and their Big Pharma partners dividing up the field of microbiology? How are they handling the divide between initiatives done in the name of public health and initiatives done to produce biological weapons for national governments including those of the United States, China, and Israel? How are the partners handling the apportionment of new wealth derived from securing patents?

  These issues are finding expressions in the many legitimate questions that are coming to light in the course of the Novel Coronavirus emergency. Some of these questions arise because of a history of largely unexplained relations between the Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory and the National Microbiology Laboratory in Winnipeg, Manitoba Canada (NML). It has been well reported that both institutions share the same top-level 4 certification assigned to containment facilities in research labs where staff can pursue high-level studies of the most dangerous pathogens known to humankind.

  Built with French assistance between 2015 and 2017, the Wuhan facility at ground zero of the current epidemic is one of the premier pathogen research facilities in a country that is thought by some to be developing significant capacities for biological warfare. Similarly, the federal research facility in Winnipeg may well have an attending or indirect role in military research to advance capacities for biological warfare in collaboration with Canada’s two main allies, Israel and the United States.

  Immunologist and Medical Doctor, Xiangguo Qiu, is the principal professional link at the nexus of relations between the Wuhan and Winnipeg facilities. Until recently Dr. Qiu was the head of the Vaccine Development and Antiviral Therapies Section of the Special Pathogens Programme of the NML. The NML in Winnipeg is administered by Canada’s federal Public Health Agency.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  *(Qiu Xiangguo was one of the first scientists to develop a treatment for Ebola. Credit: Handout) 

  Dr. Qiu received her medical degree in China. In 1996 she moved from the Taijin area of China to the United States while already being subsidized as participant in China’s Thousand Talents Program. She soon moved to Canada from the US continuing her graduate work at the University of Manitoba. Dr. Qiu continued her professional life in both Canada and China, apparently visiting the Wuhan Biosafety Laboratory of the Chinese Academy of Science at least five times, each for two-week periods in 2017 and 2018. In each case an undisclosed Chinese entity paid her travel expenses.

  After 2006 Dr. Qiu’s research specialty became the study of a variety of Ebola wild strains. The most virulent of these strains has an 80% death rate for those that contract the virus. An outbreak of Ebola from 2013 to 2016 took the lives of over 11,000 people in West Africa. Along with Dr. Gary Kobinger, Dr. Qui was said to be instrumental in developing the ZMapp treatment for Ebola using a cocktail of antibodies. In 2018 the duo received an Innovation Award from the Governor General of Canada for developing treatments for those infected with Ebola virus.

  In March of 2019, Dr. Qiu and her research team sent off to China via Air Canada a package of deadly virus strains said to include Ebola and Nipah organisms. The shipment is said to have triggered an unexplained negative response from officials in China. The flagged problem probably involved an alleged failure to follow proper procedures in the transfer of materials that can be used for the manufacturing of bioweapons as well as in the making of vaccines to prevent the spread of infection.

  The episode led to the decision of Canada’s Public Health Agency to call in the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) to investigate. This investigation was directed at Dr. Qiu and her husband, Cheng Keding, who is also an acknowledged expert in the field of virology.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  *(Chinese bacterial thief Xiangguo Qiu and her husband Chen Keding.)

  As a result of these developments an episode occurred that was reported on July 14 by the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, CBC. In her CBC article, Karen Pauls reported,

  A researcher with ties to China was recently escorted out of the National Microbiology Lab (NML) in Winnipeg amid an RCMP investigation into what’s being described as a possible “policy breach.” Dr. Xiangguo Qiu, her husband Keding Cheng and an unknown number of her students from China were removed from Canada’s only level-4 lab on July 5.

  The CBC acted pretty much as a stenographer of official sources whose clear mission was to keep a lid on the potentially explosive story. The story would become even more explosive with the inception in December of 2019 of the Coronavirus crisis in China. Rather than trying to go around the official platitudes by engaging in some independent sleuthing known as investigative journalism, CBC did what most mainstream venues do these days. CBC acted as a xerox machine to relay the tepid pronouncements of a timid and ill-guided bureaucracy.

  Paul cited, for instance, an official in Canada’s Public Health Agency referring to the removal of Dr. Qiu, her husband and her research team as an “administrative matter” that will be “resolved expeditiously.” Several officials including a RCMP spokesman, indicated, “There is no threat to public safety at this time.”

  A federal media relations officer continued the effort of deflection by trying to make a really unusual, complex and many-faceted story seem unremarkable. The commentator affirmed, “the work of the NML continues in support of the health and safety of all Canadians.” Leah West, an International Affairs Professor at Carlton University of Ottawa, went as far as venturing that “national security” issues might be involved. This statement calls for explanations that Canadian reporters have so far not seriously attempted.

  Lt. Colonel Dr. Dany Shoham is one of the most attentive figures outside Canada who responded especially quickly and skeptically to the perplexing questions raised by Dr. Qiu’s activities. Dr. Shoham is a reserve member of the IDF. He continues his military responsibilities in the fields of biological and chemical warfare as a senior researcher in the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies in Israel.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  *(Dr. Dany Shoham. Credit: Wiki/ Shalom magazine.)

  In 2014 Dr. Shoham was a visiting scholar at the New Delhi-based Institute for Defence Studies and Analysis (IDSA). There he collaborated professionally with the IDSA’s Deputy Director, Brigadier Rumel Dahiya. Dr. Shoham devoted much of his time in India to studying what he refers to as China’s Biological Warfare Programme.

  Dr. Shoham published his findings in 2015 in an “integrative study” where he commented at significant length on the makeup and structure of China’s secretive military R and D initiatives in the alleged development of bioweapons. He maintains that these secretive military operations have been blended into the operations of “ostensibly civilian facilities” where public health initiatives in disease prevention and treatment are often highlighted

  Dr. Shoham notes that the government of China became a signatory in 1984 to UN’s Biological Weapons Convention of 1972. The Israeli academic alleges, however, that China, a target of US biological war in the Korean War in the early 1950s, opted to secretly retain some continuing capacities in this military field.

  Dr. Shoham has cast himself as an insistent whistle blower calling attention to the provocative circumstances attending the shipment from Canada to China of virulent pathogens. Dr. Shoham indicated that Dr. Qiu’s research has been conducted not only on behalf of the governments of Canada and China. Dr. Qui has also collaborated with three scientists from the US Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases in Maryland. Much of her success, however, is connected to her obtaining many grants from China, all on the “national level.” 

  In the July-December 2019 issue of the IDSA Journal, Dr. Shoman explained.

  But the collateral Chinese plexus cannot be ignored. Married to a Chinese scientist – Dr. Keding Cheng, also affiliated with the NML (specifically the “Science and Technology Core”), and primarily a bacteriologist who shifted to virology – Dr. Qiu frequently visited and maintained tight bonds with China, generally speaking, and many Chinese students joined her works in the NML during the recent decade, coming from a notable range of Chinese scientific facilities. Nonetheless, among the latter there are four facilities that have been regarded to possess parts of the Chinese biological weapons alignment, namely

  • Institute of Military Veterinary, Academy of Military Medical Sciences, Changchun.

  • Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu Military Region.

  • Wuhan Institute of Virology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hubei.

  • Institute of Microbiology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing.

  All of the four mentioned facilities collaborated with Dr. Qiu within the context of Ebola virus, yet the Institute of Military Veterinary joined a study on the Rift Valley fever virus, while the Institute of Microbiology joined a study on Marburg virus too. Noticeably, the drug used in the latter study – Favipiravir – has been earlier tested successfully by the Chinese Academy of Military Medical Sciences, with the designation JK-05 (originally a Japanese patent registered in China already in 2006), against Ebola and additional viruses.

  However, the studies by Dr. Qiu are considerably more advanced and fruitful, in certain aspects. They are apparently vital for the Chinese biological weapons developing, in case Ebola, Nipah, Marburg or Rift Valley fever viruses are included therein, which is a plausible postulation; let alone the wild type viruses in themselves. And it is of note that only Nipah virus is naturally found in China or neighboring countries. Collectively, then, the interface between Dr. Qiu and China has a priori been highly suspicious. On top of it, the shipment of the two viruses from NML to China apparently generated an alarm, beyond its seeming inappropriateness. And an unavoidable question is whether previous shipments to China of other viruses or other essential preparations, took place from 2006 to 2018, one way or another.

  It has not gone unnoticed that this episode at the National Microbiology Laboratory in Winnipeg may be intertwined with the mounting diplomatic tension between the governments of Canada and China. The controversy is unfolding in a way that adds new uncertainty to the controversy instigated in December of 2018 with the Canadian government’s decision to arrest, detain and put on trial the Huawei cell phone company’s executive, Meng Wanzhou. Many have questioned the dubious nature of the decision to arrest the Huawei official in Vancouver for allegedly violating US law pertaining to sanctions against Iran.

  The future role of the Huawei system for 5G wireless communications, a frightening and largely untested public health hazard in its own right, has emerged as a core issue in the conflict between the United States and China. To conceive of this conflict as a trade war alone is to underestimate the full scope of the antagonisms. These antagonisms over the future of wireless communications extend, for instance, far into the shape and form of future international espionage. Since the era began nearly 20 years ago of the 9/11 psychological operation, much international espionage has taken place by means of backdoor spying on digital flows of information. Israel has become especially closely identified with this type of digital spying throughout the Internet.

  The Chinese strategy for achieving traction in this competitive milieu is to apply breakthroughs in digital computation and communications. The strategy is to integrate innovations in Artificial Intelligence, AI, with cutting edge developments in biotechnology. This methodology is understood by some Chinese students of geopolitics as integral to the military process of “preparing a new domain for warfare.”

  In this digital and biological theatre of rivalry, the new gene splicing capacities of CRISPR technology constitute a formidable new tool for major and irreversible interventions into life’s most fundamental cycles of death and renewal. The ability to alter the genetic makeup of organisms, including human organisms, is thereby becoming a key facet in establishing new domains for warfare, including various forms of hybrid warfare.

  More elements in China’s geopolitical strategy have come to light as the Wuhan Coronavirus epidemic gathers momentum especially in the ground zero region. The decision of Canadian federal officials, including federal police, to intervene by removing Dr. Qiu and her research team from the NML was to some extent mirrored in the United States.

  In January of 2020 police in the United States arrested Prof. Charles Lieber, Chairman of Harvard University’s Chemistry and Chemical Biology Department. Dr. Lieber has been placed on indefinite administrative leave and charged under US criminal law with lying to officials in the Defense Department and in the National Institutes of Health. These agencies funded Dr. Lieber’s research at Harvard in the field of nanoscience to the tune of $15,000,000 in grants.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  *(Prof. Charles Lieber, former Chairman of Harvard University’s Chemistry and Chemical Biology Department.)

  Dr. Lieber is alleged to have misled federal officials and Harvard officials about the extent of his contractual relations with several Chinese entities including, most prominently, the Wuhan Technological University. Among the allegations pointed his way are those that accuse Dr. Lieber of failing to reveal his participation in China’s controversial Thousand Talents program.

  According to the FBI, “China’s talent recruitment plans, such as the Thousand Talents Program, offer competitive salaries, state-of-the-art research facilities, and honorific titles, luring both Chinese overseas talent and foreign experts alike to bring their knowledge and experience to China, even if that means stealing proprietary information or violating export controls to do so.” The Chinese-Canadian researcher, Dr. Qiu, is reported to be, like Harvard’s Dr. Lieber, a participant in China’s Thousand Talents program.

  In its report on the case, Bloomberg News described the work at Dr. Lieber’s Harvard lab as being dependent on “a pipeline of China’s brightest Ph.D. students and postdocs, often more than a dozen at a time, to produce prize-winning research.”

  The North American research activities of Dr. Lieber and Dr. Qui seem to have been similarly dependent on China’s financial backing, collaboration and constant supply of promising young practitioners of scientific research. Both Dr. Lieber and Dr. Qiu clearly ran into a major sea change in the conditions of their work with major ramifications for the conduct of national security, international relations, law enforcement and academic governance.

  No doubt administrators have been sent reeling behind-the-scenes at Harvard University, at the University of Manitoba and at institutions of higher learning throughout the world. These institutions depend heavily on international networks of academic collaboration. Suddenly the viability of many of these academic networks has been called into question though interventions by the criminal justice system in Canada and the United States.

  Indeed, the sudden global spotlight on anything that might help shed light on the still-shady background of the Wuhan Coronavirus epidemic must be given its due. The startling developments associated with a major plague quite possibly cultivated in stages in both test tubes and animal hosts calls into question many things. It calls for explanations about the role of many corporations, government agencies and philanthropic foundations. The rules seem to be changing fast for entities that regularly sponsor scholarly research even as they participate in the process of applying research findings to technological innovations.

  The arrest of Dr. Lieber followed the arrest in mid-December of 20019 of Zaosong Zheng at Logan International Airport in Boston for trying to smuggle to Beijing 21 vials of biological material. The vials were taken from Harvard University’s Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Centre where Zaosong Zheng was a visiting graduate student in pathology.

  Commenting on his ongoing investigation of the case, Assistant U.S. Attorney, Benjamin Tolkoff remarked, “Zeng’s theft and attempt to smuggle biological specimens out of the U.S. was not an isolated incident. Rather it appears to have been a coordinated crime, with likely involvement by the Chinese government.”

  Ideology and Investigative Journalism

  A tight set of right-wing activists and agencies with deep-rooted antipathies to Chinese communism have provided a particular genre of criticism in the course of the current debacle. These agencies include Radio Free Asia, a former CIA-backed outlet now governed by a federally-funded Board of Governors answerable directly to the current Secretary of State and former CIA Director, Mike Pompeo. The criticisms of Radio Free Asia have been integrated into a matrix of criticism of the Chinese government highlighted especially in the Washington Times and The Epoch Times.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  The Epoch Times emerges from an international group of newspapers published in several languages. It has a strong focus on China and on Chinese people globally. The Epoch Times was founded in 2000 by John Tang with a group of Chinese Americans associated with Falun Gong.

  The Falun Gong organization is in the grips of an antagonistic relationship with the Chinese Communist Party. Falun Gong combines Taoism, Buddhism and meditation. It became so independently influential in China that in 1999 the Communist government declared it a heretical organization. The antagonism between Falun Gong and the Chinese government quite likely involves covert infiltration by the US CIA and related US agencies.

  Whatever is happening behind the scenes, The Epoch Times has been running an unrelenting critique of the Chinese government’s handling of the Novel Coronavirus crisis. The journalistic coverage of the crisis is often been incisive and bold. The consistent message is that the Chinese government is not reporting on the epidemic honestly. Nor is The Epoch Times holding back from criticizing the Chinese government for secretly engaging in the violent repression of Chinese citizens especially in the most hard-hit regions.

  Some managers of the dominant cartels’ media thought police try to ridicule and harass those publicly posing essential questions. The Epoch Times, however, has no hesitation in asking, “Is the Coronavirus a Bioweapon?” In explaining the position of those opposed to open debate on the geopolitics of biological warfare, The Epoch Times Steven W. Mosher has commented, “Much ink has been spilled by The Washington Post and other mainstream media outlets to try to convince us that the deadly coronavirus is a product of nature rather than nefariousness, and that anyone who says otherwise is an unhinged conspiracy theorist.”

  Like The Epoch Times, the Washington Times is rooted in the politics of anti-communism. One of the primary journalists at the venue is the national security correspondent, Bill Gertz. Gertz is a career China expert who is sometimes invited to lecture for the FBI and CIA.

  The Washington Times grew out of the controversial career of the Korean-American, Sun Myung Moon. Moon is founder of the Unification Church sometimes dubbed “the Moonies” by its detractors. The Washington Examiner is also known for its related right-wing orientation to news coverage. One of the lead authorities frequently highlighted in the output of this genre of anti-communist reporting is Dr. Dany Shoham. Recall that Dr. Shoham was one of the most insistent critics of the Wuhan-Winnipeg axis revealed in the summer of 2019.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  *(Rev. Sun Myung Moon speaking in Las Vegas, NV, USA on April 4, 2010.)

  Dr. Shoham was quoted, for instance, in the 26 January edition of the Washington Times asserting “Certain laboratories in the [Wuhan Institute of Virology] have probably been engaged, in terms of research and development, in Chinese [biological weapons], at least collaterally, yet not as a principal facility of the Chinese Biological Weapons alignment.”

  Elsewhere Dr. Shoham, who is sometimes described as “a former Israel intelligence officer,” asserted his understanding that “China had intentionally leaked the new coronavirus from the Wuhan Institute of Virology.”

  Tom Cotton, Republican Party Senator for Arkansas, has emerged as another significant voice criticizing the role of the Chinese government in the Novel Coronavirus epidemic. In introducing the Senator’s position to its readership, Newsweek reported on 16 February, “Republican Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas on Sunday accused China of lying about the severity of the coronavirus outbreak and suggested that the new disease may have originated from a biosafety super laboratory in Wuhan.”

  Senator Cotton has praised US President Donald Trump for his decision to temporarily cancel flights between China and USA. This cancellation, however, was seemingly contradicted by records revealing the continuation of much air traffic between China and USA in spite of the presidential pronouncement.

  Senator Cotton referred to evidence pointing to the fact that some of the early victims of the disease had no contact whatsoever with the Wuhan open-air food market. The deadly virus, Senator Cotton insists, “went into the food market before it came out.”

  Senator Cotton has unwaveringly underlined his contention that the Chinese authorities have from its inception withheld the truth about the crisis. According to the Senator, Chinese officials have been especially deceptive about the extent of the illnesses and mortality. “They’re still lying today,” he was reported as telling Newsweek. The young Arkansas politician has insisted on the need for some kind of reckoning on the part of the Chinese government leading to a full and proper investigation with full disclosure.

  Newsweek’s interpretive angle is similar to that of other media survivors of the Mockingbird era of US propaganda. Most Big Media venues including Newsweek employed writers and editors who happily accepted extra money from the CIA to tell the US government’s side of the story during the Cold War.

  The common denominator in much of the dinosaur-style of reporting that characterizes a discredited old guard is to describe any interpretation that challenges established conventions and interests as “conspiracy theories.” As Lance DeHaven-Smith has demonstrated in his book of the same name, the CIA led the way in the conceptual tweeking of the term, “conspiracy theories,” with the goal of discrediting interpretations considered menacing to established interests.

  Again and again the media conglomerates most deeply integrated into dominant matrixes of power deploy the weaponized terminology with the goal of limiting public discourse. They invoke the boogeyman of “conspiracy theories” as a meme to flippantly discredit skeptical journalism questioning the honesty of official sources.

  Newsweek reported,

  Cotton’s remarks came amid the proliferation of various conspiracy theories surrounding coronavirus’ origins, one of which suggests it may have come from a laboratory tied to Beijing’s biowarfare program. In response, Facebook and other social media platforms have cracked down on the reach of posts that perpetuate these unsubstantiated allegations.

  There is much irony in Newsweek’s supportive account of Facebook’s intervention aimed at blocking open exchange on a major undecided topic. The irony occurs because of the propensity of some MSM venues to condemn the Chinese government for their imposition of censorship including the blocking of their critics on social media.

  The heavy-handed crackdown in the Occident on the increasingly vandalized domain of violated free expression on the Internet is quite comparable to communist crackdowns on dissident news and views especially during the peak of the Cold War.

  The US claim to be the heartland of the “free world” has long since become ludicrous in the extreme given many factors including the ailing superpower’s generation of an unrelenting flood of power-serving disinformation. Part of this agenda is to control the narrative no matter how deceptive. It is to engage in digital vandalism aimed at discrediting or altogether silencing dissident voices on the Internet.

  One of the targets of Internet censorship on the Wuhan Coronavirus story is the web site, Zero Hedge. Zero Hedge was permanently deplatformed by the corporate censors at Twitter for reporting on interpretations that might be characterized as consistent with Senator Cotton’s skeptical critique of officialspeak on many aspects of the current Coronavirus debacle. One of the thought police agencies behind the attack Zero Hedge is the Internet venue, BuzzFeed News.

  Twitter’s decision to deplatform Zero Hedge came in the wake of its 29 January post that included the following comments by Tyler Durden:

  ..the official theory for the spread of the Coronavirus epidemic, namely because someone ate bat soup at a Wuhan seafood and animal market… … is a fabricated farce, and that the real reason behind the viral spread [of the disease] is because a weaponized version of the coronavirus (one which may have originally been obtained from Canada), was released by Wuhan’s Institute of Virology (accidentally or not), a top, level-4 biohazard lab which was studying “the world’s most dangerous pathogens.”

  The Military-Medical-Propaganda Complex and COVID-19

  India, and especially India’s capital of New Delhi, have been important bases where challenging interpretations of the Wuhan Coronavirus epidemic have been formulated and distributed. In some circles in India there is a high level of attentiveness and concern about China’s interest in biological warfare. This concern was expressed in Tehelka, an important English-language publication based in New Delhi.

  Tehelka reported on 18 Feb. that

  China’s national strategy of military-civil fusion has highlighted biology as a priority, and the People’s Liberation Army – PLA could be at the forefront of expanding and exploiting this knowledge… China’s Biological Warfare Programme is believed to be in an advanced stage that includes research and development, production and weaponization capabilities. Its current inventory is believed to include the full range of traditional chemical and biological agents with a wide variety of delivery systems including artillery rockets, aerial bombs, sprayers, and short-range ballistic missiles.

  As we have seen, New Delhi’s Institute for Defense Studies and Analysis hosted Dr. Shoham during a study leave in 2014. During his time in India, the Israeli intelligence officer devoted his study leave with the approval of his Indian hosts to investigating China’s alleged biological warfare program. 

  Not surprisingly, Indian scientists were especially fast off the mark in trying to understand the nature of the Wuhan Coronavirus epidemic. Some in India well remember that the Chinese government was slow in releasing information on the SARS infection of 2002-3. Some, including Dr. Dany Shoham, believe this delay had to do with the importance of SARS in the Chinese program of bioweapon research. Dr. Shoham has maintained that Coronaviruses, but particularly SARS, have been studied in the Wuhan Institute of Viriology. He adds, “SARS is included in the Chinese Bioweapons program, and is dealt with in several pertinent facilities.”

  During January of 2020 a team of nine high-level researchers at the University of Delhi’s Kusuma School of Biological Sciences at the Indian Institute of Technology investigated the RNA side of the genetic blueprint of the COVID-19 virus. These Indian researchers collaborated in the analysis of the organism that some have taken to calling the Wuhan supervirus.

  The initial findings of the researchers have been published on line in a paper entitled, “Uncanny Similarity of Unique Inserts in the 2019-nCoV Spike Protein to HIV-1 gp120 and Gag.” At the time of writing this essay, the University of Delhi’s much-smeared contribution to COVID-19 research  continues to be available on the line even though it is still making its way through the process of peer review with possible future revisions.

  The main finding of the study so far is that the genetic structure of the virus has “4 insertions in the spike glycoprotein (S) which are unique to the 2019-nCoV [COVID-19] and are not present in other coronaviruses.” These “4 inserts have identity or similarity to those in HIV-1 gp120 or HIV-1 Gag.” This finding “sheds light on the evolution and pathogenicity of this virus.”

  The authors of the paper find that the genetic inserts into the virus “have identity/similarity to amino acid residues in key structural proteins of HIV-1.” These characteristics are “unlikely to be fortuitous in nature.” This key phrase indicates that in the opinion of the researchers the presence of HIV genes in COVID-19 was not the result of some process of random mutation in nature. Instead, the insertion of the HIV genes into the new coronavirus probably took place through an engineered intervention by experts in microbiology.

  The finding that HIV genes are integral to the genetic structure of COVID-19 has not been seriously challenged. The fact that HIV treatments are being widely used to ease the symptoms of those suffering the effects of the new infection is highly suggestive. It implies that some of the analysis of the Kusuma School of microbiologists was quickly seized upon and applied in clinical situations.

  The main subjects of the controversy that has been generated so far arise mostly from the question of whether or not the insertion of the HIV genes could have occurred without human intervention, without genetic engineering. That issue is bound to attract much scientific attention in the weeks and months ahead.

  The work of the Kusuma microbiologists at the University of Delhi has become important in the interpretation of the epidemic advanced by Zero Hedge. The size of the group following Zero Hedge’s coverage of the Coronavirus crisis of 2020 only became larger after the censorious thought police at BuzzFeed and Twitter intervened. The public is not taking well to corporate intervention aimed at dictating what can or cannot be communicated, viewed, considered or debated.

  The hysteria aroused by the “Uncanny Resemblance” paper captured the attention of a site called GreatGameIndia. This operation publishes a regular “Journal of Geopolitics and International Relations.” The co-founders and editors of GreatGameIndia, an especially lively and edgy publishing venue, are Raja Sekhar and Shelly Kasli.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  The interpretive bent of this venue begins with the surprising observation that the English East India Company was the most influential and large-scale business venture in all of history. According to Raja Sekhar, this history established patterns of Western kleptocracy in Asia that continue to this day.

  The publication of GreatGameIndia on the background of the Wuhan Coronavirus epidemic has attracted positive attention from Tehelka and from many other publications throughout the world. The venue, unfortunately, is not always completely transparent. For instance the names of specific authors of specific essays are sometimes not published.

  GreatGameIndia describes itself as “India’s one-of-a kind portal on international affairs providing global intelligence… in a geopolitical and historical framework to better understand international developments and the world around us. Experts in the field of Geopolitics and International Relations, we bring in fresh perspective to the otherwise redundant academic approach. We are read, recommended and published by decision makers, renowned personalities and organisations around the world.”

  GreatGameIndia did indeed bring “fresh perspective” in highlighting a possible role for Canada in China’s alleged military program to develop bioweapons. This story was developed in a rapid-fire series of articles, most of which appeared in January and February of 2020. These items brought together intertwined news on the possible roles of the Wuhan Institute of Virology and Winnipeg’s National Microbiology Laboratory in the genesis of the Wuhan Coronavirus epidemic.

  This juxtaposition of the two institutions highlights the work of Israeli intelligence expert, Dr. Dany Shoham. It seems he may have had some role in shaping the overall narrative. Dr. Shoham’s oft’ republished essay highlighting the role of Dr. Xiangguo in the Winnipeg-Wuhan axis of biotechnology was republished by GreatGameIndia.

  A number of issues are raised by Dr. Shoham’s possible involvement in the genesis of the stories run by GreatGameIndia and by other related venues on the Wuhan Coronavirus crisis. Is Dr. Shoham to be understood as an agent of Israel in the discussions and debates? Is his consistently critical stance on China’s alleged bioweapons program together with his relative silence on similar US programs a significant sign of an Israel-US or an Israel-US-India alignment on this issue? 

  One could legitimately ask, for instance, if the series of narratives highlighting the Chinese-Canadian connection might have been meant as a diversion? Might such a diversion have been mounted to point attention away from the possibility that a germ warfare attack was covertly mounted in Wuhan by US soldiers taking part in the 7th World Military Games? Over 300 US military personnel took part in this event organized in Wuhan from October18-27, 2019.

  In an interview with Jeff Brown, a veteran of US special operations in China, “Uriah Heep,” aka “Metallicman,” has speculated about the possibility that the US government was responsible for a biological attack resulting in the COVID-19 epidemic.

  The GreatGameIndia essays are premised on a very harsh picture assessment of the Chinese government’s intentions as directed especially at North America. J. R. Nyquist is the author of the article in GreatGameIndia outlining the historical background of China’s emphasis on biotechnology, including the development of the means to conduct biological warfare.

  A version of Nyquist’s GreatGameIndia essay also appeared in the Falun Gong-backed Epoch Times. Nyquist writes frequently for The Epoch Times. Many of his essays emphasize very critical assessments of communism in a variety of contemporary and historical settings.

  The heart of the essay introducing readers to the genesis of China’s biological warfare capacities highlights a speech given in 2005 by Chi Hoatian, an important General in the People’s Liberation Army. Between 1993 and 2003 General Chi was also China’s Minister of National Defence. The full text of the speech is available here.

  The essence of the presentation is based on the premise that by 2005 China had become severely overpopulated, a problem that entailed a growing degradation of the national environment. The solution to this problem, General Chi decided, was to colonize a portion of the globe as a second China. Chi observed that the region neighboring China was already densely populated. He added, “only countries like the United States, Canada, and Australia have the vast land to serve our need for mass colonization.”

  General Chi indicated that is was Deng Xioping who was the most instrumental figure in the decision to build up his country’s arsenal of biological weapons in spite of China’s formal adherence to the Biological Weapons Convention. Deng is best known as the Chinese leader who oversaw the dramatic transformation of the Chinese economy beginning in the 1980s.  Said General Chi

  When Comrade Xiaoping was still with us, the Party Central Committee had the perspicacity to make the right decision not to develop aircraft carrier groups and focused instead on developing lethal weapons that can eliminate mass populations of the enemy country. Biological weapons are unprecedented in their ruthlessness, but if Americans do not die then Chinese have to die. If the Chinese people remain strapped to the present land, a total societal collapse is bound to take place.

  As General Chi saw it, from the Chinese perspective biological weapons have advantages over nuclear weapons. According to his way of seeing things,’ “only by using non-destructive weapons that kill many people will we be able to reserve America for ourselves.”

  GreatGameIndia did little to explain how average people in China have responded to General Chi’s surprising explanation of a perceived need to colonize a portion of the world for a second China.  How seriously were General Chi’s words received in China? How many in China today consider General Chi’s analysis to be still relevant?

  The account by GreatGameIndia of the strange viral infection starting in Wuhan depends on some documented evidence mixed in with speculative accounts of things that might have taken place. The essence of the scenario presented to the public is identified by the title of the core essay in the series. Published on 26 January, 2020 this title is “Coronavirus Bioweapon: How China Stole Coronavirus from Canada and Weaponized It.”

  This essay was widely republished including by Zero Hedge.

  The authors mix sheer conjecture with an evidence-based chronicle of certain events. The aim seems to be to stimulate thinking about what is known to be happening while encouraging concurrently reflections on what might be taking place or what might be about to take place.

  Hence the overall nature of the narrative outlined by GreatGameIndia can best be described as an SOS about quickly deteriorating developments containing warnings about possible unseen factors or possible dangers up ahead. The GreatGameIndia project can be conceived, therefore, as a psychological operation meant to shift and enliven public attitudes, behavior and actions. Psychological operations, sometimes innocuously identified as PR campaigns, are very prominent in the media coverage of many events and topics these days.

  What is actually known about the condition of Winnipeg’s National Microbiology Laboratory during the period when Dr. Qiu’s team of China’s researchers conducted themselves in ways that led to the removal of their security passes, followed by their physical removal from the facility? Recent media reports in Winnipeg have painted a picture of the breakdown of decorum at the NML. In September of 2019 the Winnipeg Free Press reported,

  The lab, known as NML, is a source of pride for its role in creating the Ebola vaccine. It’s one of the few facilities in the world accredited to handle the most deadly pathogens. It officially opened in 1999 to much fanfare, after political wrangling had it ultimately placed in Winnipeg.

  Yet numerous people who work there have told the Free Press of a workplace rife with intimidation, alcohol abuse and clashes between officials in Winnipeg and Ottawa, which was partially revealed this summer in an administrative breach that has the RCMP investigating a shipment of dangerous substances to China.

  “The sad thing is, they do world-class science, but internally they’re almost self-destructing, in terms of how they treat their employees,” said Todd Panas, national president of the Union of Health and Environment Workers.

  “The collateral damage to get that science is pretty remarkable.”

  As far as the specifics of the RCMP investigation into the much highlighted shipment of deadly viruses from Winnipeg to China, all that has been reported in MSM is that it may have had something to do with “rules around copyright, patents and published works.”

  The reporter, Dylan Robertson, went further, indicating, “multiple sources who spoke with the Free Press on the condition of anonymity, say the shipment lacked an agreement spelling out intellectual property rights, which is critical for protecting scientific research.” According to Robertson, the RCMP still will not say if its investigation is going forward in the organizational realm of either national security, or organized crime, or forensics.”

  The GreatGameIndia essays highlight the role of Frank Plummer, a former Scientific Director of the Canada’s National Microbiology Laboratory and a leading researcher on HIV-AIDS. Prof. Plummer conducted much of his primary HIV research in Kenya. He focused especially on the heterosexual spread of AIDS in Africa, developing in the process a joint project between the University of Manitoba and the University of Nairobi.

  GreatGameIndia included in their lineup of intertwined stories one describing Frank Plummer as the “key to the coronavirus investigation” who “was assassinated in Africa.” There is nothing but conjecture behind the assertion that Dr. Plummer was assassinated. It was widely reported in MSM that Prof. Plummer died quickly of an unexpected heart attack in Nairobi on 4 February of 2020 just as coverage on the Wuhan epidemic was reaching a point of critical mass.

  The conjecture of assassination gave the story a contemporary resonance that captured considerable attention. This twist invested the larger narrative with sensationalist connotations. It strongly implied that some malevolent group of saboteurs had eliminated Dr. Plummer so he could not bear witness to what had apparently happened at the NML in Winnipeg to pour oil on the inflamed crisis in China.

  No proof is offered that Dr. Plummer did not die of natural causes. The spotlight put on his career by GreatGameIndia, however, does call attention to the rather exotic career of a significant Canadian involved in many original types of genetic study and alteration totally new to medical and military science. The report serves to stimulate reflections on the types of intrigue that would probably arise on a regular basis in Dr. Plummer’s unusual line of work.

  The account by GreatGameIndia of the Canadian connection to the Wuhan plague stresses the role of Dr. Plummer in the process that is said to have brought into Winnipeg’s level 4 pathogen lab a particular SARS strain that initially came from Saudi Arabia. Before arriving in Winnipeg, the strain of SARS said to be investigated by Dr. Plummer passed along a chain of custody involving collaboration with colleagues in Jeddah, Egypt and Rotterdam.

  We learn from the narrative that the NML has a “long history of offering comprehensive testing services for Coronaviruses”; that it “isolated and provided the first genome sequence of the SARS Coronavirus and identified another Coronavirus as NL63 in 2004.” We learn that the “Canadian lab grew up stocks of the virus [originating in respiratory illnesses infecting Saudi Arabian victims] and used it to assess diagnostic tests being used in Canada. Winnipeg scientists worked to see which animal species can be infected with the new virus.”

  The article uses provocative language calling Dr. Qui “a Chinese Bio-Warfare Agent.” After referring to Dr. Shoham, whose comments appear consistently throughout a wide array of reports critical of the alleged biowarfare program run by the Chines government, a reference is made to James Giordano. a is identified as a neurology professor at Georgetown University and a senior fellow in Biowarfare at the U.S. Special Operations Command. Prof. Giordano is reported to have commented,

  China’s growing investment in bio-science, looser ethics around gene-editing and other cutting-edge technology and integration between government and academia raise the spectre of such pathogens being weaponized. 

  That could mean an offensive agent, or a modified germ let loose by proxies, for which only China has the treatment or vaccine. “This is not warfare, per se,” he said. “But what it’s doing is leveraging the capability to act as global saviour, which then creates various levels of macro and micro economic and bio-power dependencies.” 

  The authors of the GreatGameIndia series on the possible Canadian connection to the Wuhan Institute of Virology speculate that the shipments of viruses from the NML to China included the specific strain of Coronavirus that originated in Saudi Arabia. This conjecture caused me to speculate about why it is that the Israeli specialist in biological and chemical warfare, Dr. Dany Shoman, took such an active interest in the Winnipeg biolab. I have seen no evidence Dr. Shoham ever visited the Winnipeg lab but for some unexplained reason he seems well informed about its activities.

  My own speculations cause me to wonder if Dr. Shoham might have come in contact with Dr. Plummer because of the latter’s reported work in doing the genetic sequencing of the virus causing the Saudi-based outbreak of a version of SARS. This speculation arises because of a serious report in London England highlighting the interests of Israeli biological warfare experts in an “ethnic bomb” that would specifically target Arabs.

  The existence of such a program was outlined on 15 November, 1998 in a London Sunday Times story entitled, “Israel Planning ‘Ethnic Bomb’ as Saddam Caves In.” The story’s authors, Uzi Mahnaimi and Marie Cohen, explain the existence of such a clandestine research project on ethnic-specific bioweapons at Ness Ziona Israel near Tel Aviv. The Israeli research project, which still continues, apparently drew earlier on investigations on ethnically-targeted biological weaponry that took place in South Africa during the era of apartheid.

  The Times article reported that

  Israel, using research obtained from South Africa, was developing an “ethno bomb; In developing their “ethno-bomb”, Israeli scientists are trying to exploit medical advances by identifying a distinctive gene carried by some Arabs, then create a genetically modified bacterium or virus… The scientists are trying to engineer deadly micro-organisms that attack only those bearing the distinctive genes.

  As an Israeli military and medical expert in the field of biological and chemical warfare, Dr. Shoham must have had some awareness of the founding and genesis of Ness Ziona “ethno-bomb” project.

  What is the past or current relationship of Dr. Shoham to the Ness Ziona Institute for Biological Research? Did Dr. Shoham have professional interactions with Dr. Plummer following the reported cultivation and genetic sequencing by the Winnipeg scientist of the Saudi-derived strain of SARS. This strain came to be known as MERS. Was Dr. Plummers’s involvement in a strain of Coronavirus that initially targeted Arabs a factor in attracting Dr. Shoham’s interest to Winnipeg’s NML.

  GreatGameIndia has published a rich and detailed academic paper presenting a chronicle and an assessment of the spread of the SARS strain that struck down Arab victims initially in Qatar and Jordan as well as Saudi Arabia. Some of the victims also spread the illness to family members in London and Pakistan. The labeling of this strain of infection as MERS comes from the name, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome.

  Prof. Gufaraz Kahn is the author of the paper published on 28 February of 2013 in Vol. 10 (no. 66) of Virology Journal. Dr. Kahn’s professional base is the Department of Microbiology and Immunology at the College of Medicine and Health Sciences at United Arab Emirates University. 

  Dr. Kahn’s rich and erudite academic account of the early stages of the MERS infections in Virology Journal would almost certainly have drawn the attention of Israeli agents involved in the country’s alleged biological and chemical warfare program. This attraction would have been especially enticing for any Israeli military officials still seeking to target Arab victims with genetically-engineered viruses.

  Did Dr. Plummer knowingly or inadvertently help Dr. Shoham with his research work based in Israel? How does the staff of the NHL navigate the inevitable military side of their research with its applications in Canada, in the US and internationally?

  If Dr. Plummer did in some way collaborate with Dr. Shoham and with other Israeli researchers in biotechnology, might this activity have been a factor in the decision of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem to grant Dr. Plummer the Scopus Award? What level of accountability is owed by the managers of the NML in Winnipeg to the citizens who fund the research facility? Shouldn’t these managers and their supervisors in administrative and elected office make a commitment not to hide research for biological warfare behind veneers of public health research?

  In the last year of his life Dr. Plummer agreed to the insertion of a surgically inserted implant in his brain meant to help the scientist cope with a severe case of alcoholism that plagued his life beginning in the 1980s. Dr. Plummer agreed to be a test case in this new biomedical therapy after he suffered a liver failure followed by a liver transplant in 2012.

  The case was widely publicized by the BBC and many other media venues in the weeks and days before the death of Dr. Plummer by heart failure in Nairobi. It is legitimate to ask whether Dr. Plummer’s longstanding problem with alcoholism contributed to the breakdown of orderly procedures and civility reported to have overtaken the culture of scientific work at the Winnipeg’s NML?

  The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation Masks Its Own Ineptitude by Attacking ‘Conspiracy Theorists’ and ‘Vigilantes’

  On 27 January of 2020 the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation responded to the boisterous response created on the Internet to the GreatGameIndian series of articles. The CBC article was written by Karen Pauls and Jeff Yates. As we have seen, some elements of GreatGameIndia series drew on news conveyed through Karen Paul’s earlier CBC reports written during the spring and summer of 2019.

  The CBC reporting on the factual lapses in the alleged Winnipeg-Wuhan axis of microbiology failed to deal with many germane subjects including the role of Dr. Dany Shoham. The stories featuring comments by Dr. Shoham have tended to develop storylines that the CBC report deems deceptive.

  Dr. Shoham’s media interventions have been influential in creating the imagery of Chinese government malfeasance in the handling the COVID-19 crisis. This critical orientation to the CCP has become common in coverage generated by many venues. Prominent among them are The Epoch Times, the Washington Times, Steve Bannon’s and Miles Guo’s coverage on War Room: Pandemic, and Simone Gao’s Taiwan-based coverage on Zooming In.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Another very significant source of honest news reporting on the COVID-19 crisis has been Trunews, an evangelical Christian broadcasting operation hosted by Rick Wiles. Rev. Wiles and those who join him on-air emerged as pioneers in the in-depth coverage of of China in epidemiological crisis. They conducted their own independent research, crawled down rabbit hole after rabbit hole, and emerged with some excellent coverage that really does qualify as Trunews. In the course of their coverage the webcast was removed from the You Tube/ADL platform. The background of the deplatforming has to do with the fact that Rev. Wiles is a self-declared Born Again Christian who is highly critical of the preoccupations and ethics of Christian Zionists.

  The CBC intervention labeled as “Fake” a screen shot of a tweet by a Dallas-based hedge fund manager named Kyle Bass. Citing CBC News, Bass tweeted that “a husband and wife Chinese spy team were recently removed from a level 4 Disease facility for sending pathogens to the Wuhan facility.” CBC reported that this tweet, one that combines documented facts with speculative supposition, was shared 12,000 times.

  The CBC did not attempt to add background and context to the use made of its own stories formulated months before the inception of the Wuhan Coronavirus epidemic. There was no specific reference in the CBC “Fake News” diatribe to the GreatGameIndia series of articles. As noted, when taken together the GreatGameIndia publications created a fairly elaborate narrative by mixing straight reporting of well-documented facts with speculative interludes.

  Bear in mind that this speculation was delivered pretty much into the vacuum created by the unwillingness or inability of many mainstream media venues to deal with the complexities of a fast-moving emergency spreading from China to the world. The genesis of the Wuhan Coronavirus epidemic provides an important window into a whole range of issues that are in many respects quite different from anything previously faced by humanity.

  The recent introduction of the tools of genetic engineering into the production of food, vaccines, or bioweaponry is not an easy or familiar subject for many people. When it comes to introducing audiences to the wide array of new issues involving technologies integral to the COVID-19 epidemic, the media still has many big jobs of public education to mount. This public education is the necessary gateway to well-informed public discourse on the complex array of issues, some of them life-and-death in nature, that is fast bearing down upon us all. 

  Instead of conscientiously reporting on the situation, the CBC’s reporters tend like so many others in their position to fall back on what is becoming an old canard. Rather than evaluate all the gaping holes and omissions and silences in their own news coverage, they attribute all problems to some imagined tribe of malicious know nothings smeared collectively as “conspiracy theorists.”

  By and large, most MSM reporters equate the concept of “conspiracy theorists” with kooks and losers who exist in some wayward zone well outside the charmed inner circle of “authoritative sources”? How are we to interpret what Pauls and Yates mean when they subjectively refer to a “conspiracy blog,” or to “conspiracy theory blogs” without giving any explanations, proofs or definitions of what they mean. Where is the trusted agency that is qualified and empowered to decide without bias or self-interest what is or is not a “conspiracy blog”? Is any interpretation that runs counter to the CBC’s often-vapid interpretation of events a “conspiracy theory”?

  Doesn’t the MSM’s serial abuse of the “conspiracy theory” meme provide a license for lazy, groupthink-inclined stenographers of power to continue a policy of serving the continued reign of the status quo?

  How often does it happen that whistle blowers who provide conscientious critiques of official narratives in many fields are dismissed as “conspiracy theorists”? Wasn’t Wuhan Medical Doctor, Li Wenliang, initially dismissed by Chinese authorities as a conspiracy theorist? How often does it happen that those who fall back on the conspiracy theory meme to discredit their detractors are in fact apologists and gate keepers for corrupt, self-serving lobbies?

  The CBC story presents a screen shot that attributes to Zero Hedge the asking of the question, “Did China Steal the Coronavirus From Canada And Weaponize It?” No effort is made by the CBC reporters to put in context the important story of the attack on Zero Hedge by Twitter in order to protect the problematic official narrative of the COVID-19 epidemic. No effort has been made by CBC to identify GreatGameIndia as the source of the story on the alleged Canadian connection to COVID-19. No effort is made to assess the background, understanding and possible motivations of the creators of the GreatGameIndia essays.

   If the CBC had held back its attack on Coronavirus “conspiracy theorists” one day longer, its reporters would have had before them the story of the arrest of Dr. Charles Lieber, the Chair of Harvard University’s Department of Chemistry and Chemical Biology. Dr. Lieber is facing serious criminal charges for his failure to communicate to US authorities the full extent of his commitments in China, including his role at the Wuhan University of Technology. 

  The nature of the allegations against the activities of Dr. Lieber cast an important light on the case of Dr. Xiangguo Qui, her husband Keding Cheng, and on her many Chinese graduate students often afforded favorable treatment at the NML and the University of Manitoba. The clear and detailed explanations given by some US officials describing the content and broader implications of the Lieber case help clarify what is not being reported in Canada.

  What and who was behind the attempt to identify and explain a significant Canadian connection to the COVID-19 crisis? What is the position of the federal government and the University of Manitoba on the case in Winnipeg that, in general terms, is seemingly being replicated by some aspects of the scandal that has opened up the Chemistry Department at Harvard University to considerable skeptical public scrutiny?

  The reporting on the Lieber case helps clarify the nature information blackout imposed on Canadians by, for instance, by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, by the federal Public Health Agency, by the RCMP, and by the Crown’s public broadcaster known as the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation.

  In setting themselves up as virtue-seeking critics of “conspiracy theorists,” CBC reporters professionally roughed up an array of writers whose work they probably haven’t read, let alone considered in a careful and thoughtful way. In creating stereotypical accounts about a body of work they probably have not evaluated on a case-by-case basis, the CBC journalists resort to forms of blanket generalizations that have much in common with the racist caricaturing of ethnic groups. 

  Hence the CBC reporters continue down the road of incitement by demonizing interpretations that in many instances do not conform to their own way of viewing events. Part of this incitement is expressed in the decision to highlight the comments of Prof. Fuyuki Kurasawa. Kurasawa is a sociologist and Director of the Global Digital Citizenship Lab at York University. Kurasawa condemns “conspiracy theories” and “rumours” for “washing out factual information being reported on line.”

  How can genuine “factual information” be credibly determined without providing space and time for open debate among proponents of competing interpretations? If the pursuit of truth by means of open debate is being spurned even by faculty members at academic institutions (which tragically is often the case these days), where else in society can such rituals of informed and civil disagreement take place in humanity’s quest for knowledge?

  Kurasawa is one of those academic careerists who has decided to swim along professionally with a broad array of discredited assumptions underlying the Global War on Terror.

  Kurasawa’s complicity in the war on terror’s culture of caricature shows up in his convoluted account how the Coronavirus “vigilantes” of his imagination  might think and act. He imagines a subgroup of “conspiracy theorists” who

  will take it on themselves to become vigilantes, where they’ll try to spot someone who supposedly is either holding the truth about some hidden truth about the coronavirus or a person who may be a carrier or supposed carrier of the virus because they appear to have certain symptoms, and then they’ll ask the general public to take matters into own hands.

  Life Sciences or Death Sciences?

  Spiro Skouras, former executive producer at Newsbud, has emerged as one of the more engaging and erudite of the young investigative journalists who have been delving into the Wuhan Coronavirus epidemic. Skouras has documented the position of many prominent figures that have questioned the dubious claim that the source of COVID-19 infection was a diseased animal in Wuhan’s open-air food market.

  Skouras has argued it would be “negligent” for researchers to refrain from investigating “the full array of possibilities” on how the contagion originated and how it spread.

  Among the first figures, Skouras interviewed on the crisis was Francis Boyle, the renowned professor of international law at the University of Illinois. Prof. Boyle drafted the Biological Weapons and Terrorism Act, legislation that enabled US ratification of the UN’s Biological Warfare Convention in 1990.

  Prof. Boyle indicated in his interview with Skouras that COVID-19 is most likely a genetically-engineered pathogen that escaped from the so-called Biosafety Laboratory in Wuhan. Prof. Boyle indicated,

  It’s clear to me [the coronavirus] leaked out of the Wuhan Biosafety Level 4 Facility set up by the Chinese government that is working on every type of dangerous biological warfare agent you can consider.

  Prof. Boyle points to the fact that the SARS virus leaked out from a Beijing lab in 2004. He describes as “propaganda” the widely promulgated opinion that COVID-19 originated in Wuhan’s exotic, open-air food market. Prof. Boyle expanded some of his interpretations in a subsequent interview published by GreatGameIndia.

  Skouras specifically asked Dr. Boyle about his relationship with mainstream media given his record as one of the foremost academic experts on international law and military culture concerning the development of bioweaponry in the United States. Dr. Boyle responded that he was pretty much blacklisted from commenting on the subject of biological warfare ever since he publicly shared his interpretation of the anthrax attacks on two US Senators in October of 2001.

  There has been considerable scholarly scrutiny of the anthrax attacks targeting the US Congress and some media organizations in early October of 2001.  The anthrax attacks constitute the most serious assault ever on the operations of the US Congress, the primary interface between law and politics in the United States.

  These attacks have come to be understood as an integral part of the large body of crimes committed in Manhattan and Washington DC on 9/11. The anthrax attacks killed five people including two postal workers. Seventeen people were injured and Congress was shut down for a few days.

  Anthrax-laden letter attacks were specifically directed at two Democratic Party Senators, Patrick Leahy and Tom Daschle. When they received the contaminated letters both lawmakers were engaged in questioning provisions of the post-9/11 emergency measures legislation known as the Patriot Act. Both Senators Leahy and Daschle were hesitant to rubber stamp the enactment that was seemingly instantly drafted and put before Congress within three weeks of the 9/11 debacle.

  The anthrax attacks took place just as the US Armed Forces began invading Afghanistan where the culprits of the 9/11 crimes were supposed to be hiding out. The perpetrators of the anthrax attack, who we were supposed to imagine at the time as al-Qaeda terrorists, succeeded in easing aside the major locus of opposition to the Patriot Act’s speedy passage in late October. Why, one might legitimately ask, ask, would Islamic jihadists want the Patriot Act to be rushed through Congress. In early October the US Armed Forces invaded Afghanistan at the same time that the US executive branch was seeking with the Patriot a license to kill and torture and steal without any checks of accountability.

  Once the US Armed Forces went to war with Afghanistan on the basis of a fraudulent explanation of 9/11’s genesis, there was basically no chance that a genuine and legitimate evidence-based investigation of the September 11 crimes would ever take place. To this day the Global War on Terror continues to unfold on a foundation of lies and illusions that have had devastating consequences for the quality of life for average people throughout the United States and the world.

  In his 2005 book, Biowarfare and Terrorism, Prof. Boyle’s analysis pointed to major problems in the FBI’s investigation of the anthrax attacks including the agency’s destruction of relevant evidence. To Prof. Boyle, the highly refined military-grade quality of the anthrax made it almost certain that the anthrax bioweapon was produced within the US Armed Forces at the lab in Fort Detrick Maryland. Anthrax, or Bacillus anthracis, is a rod-shaped bacteria found naturally in soil.

  Looking back at the episode Dr. Boyle observed, “The Pentagon and the C.I.A. are ready, willing, and able to launch biowarfare when it suits their interests. They already attacked the American People and Congress and disabled our Republic with super-weapons-grade anthrax in October 2001.”

  Prof. Boyle’s interpretation was later verified and expanded upon in a book by Canadian Prof. Graeme MacQueen. Prof. Boyle acknowledges the veracity of Prof. MacQueen’s study of the anthrax deception as part of a “domestic conspiracy.” He sees The 2001 Anthrax Deception as the most advanced finding of academic research on the topic so far.

  Prof. MacQueen is prominent among a very large group of academics and public officials who condemn the official narrative of 9/11 for its dramatic inconsistencies with the available evidence. Those who share this understanding include former Italian Prime Minister Francesco Cossiga, former German Defence Minister Andreas von Bülow, former UK Minister of the Environment Michael Meacher, former Assistant Secretary of the US Treasury Paul Craig Roberts, former Director of the US Star Wars Missile Defense Program Lt. Col. Bob Bowman, Princeton International Law Professor Richard Falk, and the author of ten academic books on different aspects of the 9/11 debacle, Claremont Graduate University Professor David Ray Griffin.

  Prof. Francis Boyle shared the 9/11 skepticism of many when he asked,

  Could the real culprits behind the terrorist attacks on 11 September 2001, and the immediately-following terrorist anthrax attacks upon Congress ultimately prove to be the same people?  Could it truly be coincidental that two of the primary intended victims of the terrorist anthrax attacks – Senators Daschle and Leahy – were holding up the speedy passage of the pre-planned USA Patriot Act … an act which provided the federal government with unprecedented powers in relation to US citizens and institutions?

  In his coverage of the Wuhan Coronavirus epidemic, Spiro Skouras highlighted the proceedings known as Event 201. Event 201 brought together in New York on October 18, 2019 an assembly of delegates hosted by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the World Economic Forum and the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. The gathering anticipated the COVID-19 crisis by just a few weeks. I retrospect it is almost as if Event 201 announced many of the controversies about to arise with the outbreak of the real epidemic in Wuhan China. Event 201 performed functions similar to those of the drills that frequently mimic the engineered scenarios animating false flag terror events but especially those of 9/11.

  A major subject of the meeting highlighted the perceived need to control communications during an epidemic. Levan Thiru of the Monetary Authority of Singapore went as far as to call for “a step up on the part of governments to take action against Fake News.” Thiru called for recriminatory litigation aimed at criminalizing “bad actors.” Cautioning against this kind of censorship, Skouras asked, Who is going to decide what constitutes “Fake News”? If fact checkers are to be employed, “who will fact check the fact checkers”?

  Hasti Taghi, a media executive with NBC Universal in New York, was especially outspoken in condemning the activities of “conspiracy theorists” that have organized themselves to question the motives and methods of the complex of agencies involved in developing and disseminating vaccines. She frequently condemned the role of “conspiracy theories” in energizing public distrust of the role of pharmaceutical companies and media conglomerates in their interactions with government.

  Tom Ingelsby of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security injected an interesting twist into the discussion. He asked, “How much control of information should there be? By whom should control of information be exercised? How can false information be effectively challenged?” Ingelsby then added, “What happens if the false information is coming from companies and governments?”

  This final question encapsulates a major problem for conscientious citizens trying to find their way through the corruption and disinformation that often permeates our key institutions. Those that try to counter the problem that governments and corporations sometimes peddle false information can pretty much expect to face accusations that they are “conspiracy theorists.” Too often the calculations involved in deciding whom or what is credible (or not) depends primarily on simple arithmetic favouring the preponderance of wealth and power.

  Spiro Skouras gives careful consideration to the possibility that the United States instigated the COVID-19 epidemic starting in Wuhan China.

  He notes the precedent set in 1945 on the atomic attacks by the US government on the civilian populations of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Skouras points out that there is proof that since the Second World War, the US government has conducted at least 239 experiments, secretly deploying toxic chemical and biological agents against portions of its own population.

  On the history of US involvement in biological warfare see here, here and here.

  Skouras highlights the window presented for a covert US bioweapon attack at the World Military Games in Wuhan China in the second half of October of 2019. He notes that 300 US soldiers participated as athletes in the Wuhan Military Games together with a large contingent of American support personnel. The timing and the circumstances of the event were more or less ideal to open up a new pathogenic front in the US government’s informal “hybrid war” against China.

  On Feb. 15 at the Munich Security Conference, US Defence Secretary, Mark T. Esper, developed a highly critical characterization of Chinese wrongdoing in order to seemingly justify recriminatory actions. Esper asserted, “China’s growth over the years has been remarkable, but in many ways it is fuelled by theft, coercion, and exploitation of free market economies, private companies, and colleges and universities… Huawei and 5G are today’s poster child for this nefarious activity.

  The US antagonism to Huawei’s leadership in the design and worldwide dissemination of 5 G technology might well be a factor in the scandal generated by the Chinese connection to intertwined research in microbiology at the level 4 labs in Winnipeg and Wuhan.

  Back in 2000 the notorious report entitled Rebuilding America’s Defenses, a publication brought forward by the neoconservative Project for the New American Century (PNAC), proposed that the US government should refurbish and invoke its capacity to wage biological warfare. PNAC was the think tank that anticipated the events of September 11, 2001 by outlining a strategic scheme that could only be realized by mobilizing American public opinion with “a catalytic event like a New Pearl Harbor.”

  After 9/11, the PNAC Team of related neoconservative activists and Zionist organizations pretty much took over the governance of the United States along with the build up and deployment of its formidable war machine. PNAC called for the invocation of “advanced forms of biological warfare that can ‘target’ specific genotypes.” In this fashion “biological warfare might be transformed into a politically useful tool.”

  The relationship of this pandemic to internal disagreements within China has been put on full display in Steve Bannon’s coverage of the crisis entitled War Room: Pandemic. A prominent member of US President Donald Trump’s inner circle, Steve Bannon is often accompanied on the daily show by Chinese billionaire dissident, Miles Guo (aka Guo Wengui, Miles Haoyun, Miles Kwok).

  Guo is an outspoken Chinese refugee. He is a persistent critic of virtually every facet of the policies and actions of the Chinese Communist Party.

  Guo regularly condemns those who dominate China’s one-party system, a system run by an elite who, he alleges, are corrupt, incompetent and inveterate liars. Guo regularly asserts that all of the Chinese government’s numbers on the pandemic, including death rates and infection rates, can probably be multiplied by 10X or even 100X  to get closer to accuracy.

  [On the 10X guestimate of mortality and infection see this.]

  Clearly Bannon and Guo would like to see the emergency conditions created by the pandemic as a wedge of division, protest and regime change within China. One of the subjects they regularly raise, as do others who accuse the Chinese government of systematic lying and deception, is that the crematoriums in Wuhan and nearby Chongqing are burning corpses of dead people at a rate far higher than official death figures. Some reports indicated that portable incinerators were being brought into the most infected core of the Wuhan Coronavirus epidemic.

  It is troubling, to say the least, that some reports indicate dead people are being cremated far faster and at far higher rates than the Chinese government and the World Health Organization are reporting. Some reckoning with the apparent disparity between reported and actual deaths has led to widespread suspicions about what is actually going in the scenes of violent and angry exchanges between people in the Wuhan area.

  Many of these videos show brutal confrontations between Chinese civilians and Chinese security police. The displays of desperation by some of those trying to escape apprehensions by uniformed officials seem sometimes to suggest the severity of a life or death struggle. It is made to seem that those seeking to escape the grip of authorities are aware that their failure to do so might lead to a quick death and a quick exit by incineration. These reflections are, of course, speculative rather than definitive.

  Questions concerning who we are supposed to believe or not in this crisis are becoming ever more pressing and volatile. One of the emerging themes in the discourse developed at War Room: Pandemic is the propensity of some of the core agencies of mainstream media in the United States to accept at face value the reports they receive from official media outlets answering to the Chinese Communist Party. To Banning and Guo this pattern makes media organizations like the New York Times, The Washington Post, and CNN essentially propaganda extensions of the Chinese government.

  The Chinese people themselves are clearly grappling in new ways with the problem of how to understand the information and directives given them by the governing apparatus of the Chinese Communist Party. Clearly the Party initially failed the people by not intervening early and decisively enough after the first cases of Coronavirus illness began to show up. The exit from Wuhan of almost five million people in prior to the Chinese Lunar New Year celebrations had huge implications for spreading the contagion.  

  As noted in the introduction, the death in Wuhan of Dr. Li Wenliang on 7 February has become a flash point for popular criticism of the Chinese Communist Party led by General Secretary Xi Jinping. Dr. Li wrote to members of his medical school alumnus group suggesting that some significant action should be taken in response to the appearance of SARS-like symptoms that suddenly afflicted his patients.

  For sending out this unauthorized communication, Dr. Li was summoned along with seven other supposed offenders to the Public Security Bureau. There he was warned by police to stop “making false statements.” He was ordered to cease and desist “spreading rumors,” and “acting illegally to disturb social order.”

  Dr. Li signed a form indicating he would refrain from continuing to do what he had been accused of doing. The chastised professional returned to his medical practice. He took his own advice and began treating patients exhibiting signs of the new illness. He himself soon died from COVID-19 when it was still known as 19-nCoV.

  Is Twitter’s permanent deplatforming of the Zero Hedge web site a North American version of the police intervention in China with the goal of silencing Dr. Li? Is the censorship of the Internet in the name of opposing “conspiracy theorists” repeating the Chinese Communist Party’s effort to silence Dr. Li?

  Is Dr. Li to be appropriately understood as a Chinese version of a “conspiracy theorist”? How different was his treatment for allegedly “spreading rumours” and “acting illegally to disturb social order” from the treatment of those in the Occident who have been deplatformed, smeared and professionally defrocked for attempting to speak truth to power?

  I have developed responses to these incursions based on hard-won experiences facing the propaganda blows of an especially powerful political lobby able to seize control of the governing board of my university. These professional lobbyists seek to discredit academic analysis of their own violations of law, ethics and civility by labelling critics of their zealotry as “conspiracy theorists” or worse.

  More recently I have been grappling against a variation on this process in trying to counter the censorious attacks on the American Herald Tribune. These assaults on free expression and open debate began with the machinations of military hawks whose hit job instructions were passed along to the disinformation specialists at CNN and the Washington Post. 

  No one can say for sure where the Wuhan Coronavirus epidemic is taking the world. Wherever we are headed, however, we are leaving behind an era that can never be recreated. Whatever happened to originate the contagion, this crisis is forcing us to take stock of the framework of biological warfare as it has been developing in China, Russia, Israel and probably many other countries.

  Nowhere, however, is biological warfare being more expansively and expensively developed and probably deployed than by the US Armed Forces. The death and destruction that humanity is presently experiencing should signal to us that it is time to get much more serious about inspecting military facilities and enforcing the terms of the Biological Warfare Convention of 1972. It is, in fact, time to get much more serious about enforcing all aspects of international criminal law in balanced ways that transcend the biases of Victors’ Justice. 

  It is time to throw off the weight of the pseudo-laws introduced after 9/11 through abhorrent tactics like the inside-job military anthrax attack on Congress. Most certainly, it is time to draw a clear distinction between research in the field of public health and research in the development of lethal bioweapons. Better yet, we should work towards putting an end altogether to militarization through the massive expansion of the “death sciences.” The vile activities of fallen practitioners of the endangered life sciences are, for starters, undermining the integrity of our besieged institutions of higher learning.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 03/05/2020 – 00:05

• Mapping Every Object In Our Solar System
  Mapping Every Object In Our Solar System

  The path through the solar system is a rocky road.

  Asteroids, comets, planets and moons and all kinds of small bodies of rock, metals, minerals and ice are continually moving as they orbit the sun. As Visual Capitalist’s Nicholas LePan points out, in contrast to the simple diagrams we’re used to seeing, our solar system is a surprisingly crowded place.

  In this stunning visualization, biologist Eleanor Lutz painstakingly mapped out every known object in Earth’s solar system (>10km in diameter), hopefully helping you on your next journey through space.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Data-Driven Solar System

  This particular visualization combines five different data sets from NASA:

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Source: Tabletop Whale

  From this data, Lutz mapped all the orbits of over 18,000 asteroids in the solar system, including 10,000 that were at least 10km in diameter, and about 8,000 objects of unknown size.

  This map shows each asteroid’s position on New Year’s Eve 1999.

  The Pull of Gravity

  When plotting the objects, Lutz observed that the solar system is not arranged in linear distances. Rather, it is logarithmic, with exponentially more objects situated close to the sun. Lutz made use of this observation to space out their various orbits of the 18,000 objects in her map.

  What she is visualizing is the pull of the sun, as the majority of objects tend to gravitate towards the inner part of the solar system. This is the same observation Sir Isaac Newton used to develop the concept of gravity, positing that heavier objects produce a bigger gravitational pull than lighter ones. Since the sun is the largest object in our solar system, it has the strongest gravitational pull.

  If the sun is continually pulling at the planets, why don’t they all fall into the sun? It’s because the planets are moving sideways at the same time.

  

  Without that sideways motion, the objects would fall to the center – and without the pull toward the center, it would go flying off in a straight line.

  This explains the clustering of patterns in solar systems, and why the farther you travel through the solar system, the bigger the distance and the fewer the objects.

  The Top Ten Non-Planets in the Solar System

  We all know that the sun and the planets are the largest objects in our corner of the universe, but there are many noteworthy objects as well.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Source: Ourplnt.com

  While the map only shows objects greater than 10 kilometers in diameter, there are plenty of smaller objects to watch out for as well.

  An Atlas of Space

  This map is one among many of Lutz’s space related visualizations. She is also in the process of creating an Atlas of Space to showcase her work.

  As we reach further and further beyond the boundaries of earth, her work may come in handy the next time you make a wrong turn at Mars and find yourself lost in an asteroid belt.

  “I knew I shoulda taken that left turn at Albuquerque!”

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 03/04/2020 – 23:45

• Airbnb Gives Renters Secret Risk Assessments And Personality Tests
  Airbnb Gives Renters Secret Risk Assessments And Personality Tests

  Via Mass Private I blog,

  What does the Church of Scientology and Airbnb have in common? If you answered secret risk assessments and personality tests, then give yourself a gold star. If you have rented an Airbnb in the past six years, the odds are pretty high that you have been given a secret risk assessment and personality score.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  According to an Electronic Privacy Information Center (EPIC) complaint, Airbnb’s secret renter risk assessments are just as specious as the Church of Scientology’s personality tests.

  This complaint concerns Airbnb’s deployment of a risk assessment technique that assigns secret ratings to prospective renters, based on behavior traits using an opaque, proprietary algorithm. Airbnb has failed to show that its technique meets the fairness, transparency, and explainability standards for AI-based decision-making set out in the OECD AI Principles and the Universal Guidelines for AI.

  According to EPIC, Airbnb uses a secret algorithm to generate renter “risk scores.”

  Airbnb generates a risk assessment score for consumers before their reservations are confirmed.As the company explains on their website: Risk scoring. Every Airbnb reservation is scored for risk before it’s confirmed. We use predictive analytics and machine learning to instantly evaluate hundreds of signals that help us flag and investigate suspicious activity before it happens.

  For six years, Airbnb has been using its “determining trustworthiness and compatibility of a person” algorithm to create risk scores of every renter.

  Airbnb also uses its secret algorithm to rate renters’ personalities.

  Personality comprises the emotional and cognitive characteristic of a person. Behavior is how a person acts or reacts, sometimes toward another person, in a certain situation. A person with positive personality or behavior traits such as conscientiousness and openness, for example, is often perceived as more reliable and trustworthy. A person with negative personality or behavior traits such as neuroticism and involvement in crimes, for example, is often perceived as untrustworthy.

  Airbnb does not want people who are “shy, anxious or depressed” to rent their apartments, condominiums or homes because those types of people are likely to leave negative comments.

  But Airbnb will rent to people with a “high trustworthiness score” because they are more likely to leave positive comments.

  Airbnb uses its secret algorithm to check renters’ social network profiles, email address, telephone number, geographic location, date of birth, social connections, employment history, education history, driver’s license number, financial account information, Internet Protocol (IP) address, and device identifier.

  EPIC’s complaint claims Airbnb uses its algorithm to score a renters’ trustworthiness based on their social media profiles.

  According to the patent application, machine learning inputs include personal data collected from web pages, information from databases, posts on the person’s social network account, posts on a blog or a microblog account of the person, a comment made by the person on a website, or a directory listing for a company or association.

  Airbnb’s algorithm is also used to identify renters with Machiavellianism and negative personalities.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  A particular personality trait can be badness, anti-social tendencies, goodness, conscientiousness, openness, extraversion, agreeableness, neuroticism, narcissism, Machiavellianism, or psychopathy or is involved in pornography, has authored online content with negative language, or has interests that indicate negative personality or behavior traits.

  By identifying the so-called negative personality or behavior traits of their renters, Airbnb has essentially turned property owners into untrained psychiatric and behavioral therapists.

  Airbnb also reviews renters’ emails, phone conversations and in-person encounters with owners and adds them to their secret risk assessment.

  The method provides the behavior trait metrics and the personality trait metrics of the first person and corresponding metrics for a second person as input to a scoring system and obtaining as output from the system a compatibility score between the two persons.

  Airbnb’s algorithm considers derogatory or angry words an anti-social personality trait. This is horrifying, everything a renter says and does go towards their personal risk assessment.

  Airbnb’s risk assessments and personality tests are about as accurate as the Church of Scientology’s E-Meter which purport’s to identify a person’s negative traits using “a box; a needle; one battery; two cans; and a bunch of copper wire.”

  Airbnb has one more trick up their sleeve so to speak:  they are also checking renters’ names against secret U.S. government watchlists.

  Airbnb has turned a once innocuous thing like renting an apartment, condominium or home into a corporate surveillance nightmare replete with secret risk assessments and anti-social personality scores.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 03/04/2020 – 23:25

• China Car Sales Crash 80% As Virus Paralyzes Auto Industry
  China Car Sales Crash 80% As Virus Paralyzes Auto Industry

  Car sales in China fell 80% YoY in February, the sharpest monthly decline in nearly two decades amid the Covid-19 epidemic kept consumers away from dealerships, according to the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  The outbreak of the virus has had a significant impact on China’s automobile industry as it has been cycling down for the last two years. Global automakers have been pouring money into China, such as Tesla, to capture a robust consumer. Still, it could be seen as the wrong move at the moment, due in part to a collapse in consumption starting in mid-January. 

  Retail sales of passenger vehicles in China dropped 80% y-o-y in February, the biggest fall in two decades, largely due to the #coronavirus outbreak, according to China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). pic.twitter.com/NWEcZwJSyU

  — The Business Source (@GlobalTimesBiz) March 4, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  A twin shock has plagued the automobile industry in China, one where a supply shock has hit manufacturers, who can’t produce automobiles at full capacity because of labor shortages and lockdowns, along with a demand shock that has kept people away from dealerships. While supply woes could be resolved with near term factory restarts, demand woes are expected to linger through the first half of the year.

  To illustrate the plunge in business activity, Caixin China Composite Output Index plunged to 27.5 in February from 51.9 in the previous month, one of the quickest drops on record. The virus outbreak has led to company closures and travel restrictions that have ground China’s economy to a halt. 

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  As we’ve noted on several prior occasions, China’s “alternative,” high-frequency indicators have demonstrated traffic congestion across 100 major cities in the country is significantly below trend since the virus outbreak began, suggesting overall trade and commerce is at a standstill.  

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Since China is the world’s leading car producer and one of the top markets for sales, a continue plunge of such magnitude will not only be felt around the world, but could very well tip the global automaker recession into an outright depression.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 03/04/2020 – 23:05

• The Multipolar Alliance Induces Rumpelstiltskin's Self-Destruction
  The Multipolar Alliance Induces Rumpelstiltskin’s Self-Destruction

  Authored by Matthew Ehret via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

  There are several versions of the old German folk tale of Rumpelstiltskin.

  The story begins with greedy king who is told by a foolish old miller that a young girl (the miller’s daughter) had the ability to spin hay into gold. When the poor girl is locked into a tower with bales of straw, a loom and orders to transform it all into gold under threat of death, a magical imp appears out of thin air and they reach an agreement: He will use his magic to spin the hay into gold on the condition that the girl gives the imp her first born child. The greedy king is pleased with the wealth that appeared from thin air, and the daughter’s neck is saved. Sadly the day eventually arrives for her to give up a child, and the imp in sadistic glee responds to her pleading tears by giving her three chances annul the contract. All she has to do is guess his name.

  To make a long story short, his name is discovered and Rumpelstiltskin literally tears himself to pieces in a fit of mad rage.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  I think this story exemplifies the self-cannibalization of the deep state over the past several years quite nicely.

  It appeared for quite some time that the oligarchy managing the world’s financial system and military-intelligence community from above was able to do magic.

  If they wanted a nation overthrown, or a troublesome elected official killed, a mere snap of the fingers was all it took. Gold from straw? They could do that too! Just look at the mass of $1.5 quadrillion dollars of derivatives claims which appeared as though out of thin air in the mere space of 30 years! Seriously, back in 1990, these fictitious assets (forms of bets on insurance on securitized debts) amounted to little more than $2 trillion and 10 years before that, had barely any existence whatsoever. NOW… they amount to over twenty times the world’s GDP! How was this possible when the real economy (agro-industrial/infrastructure capital which supports real life) was permitted to atrophy during that same space of time? Magic!

  Such are the powers of today’s Rumpelstiltskin.

  There were no shortage of idiot kings in our modern story either. A cleptocracy rose to prominence in the west in a scale unseen in human history. Billionaire speculators, hedge fund managers and other useless nouveau rich devoid of any actual productive skill rose to positions of power and prestige under this new system of globalization and used their wealth and influence to become enforces of the system that gave them their money and status. The Bloombergs of this world were more than happy to unquestioningly accept the idea that they “earned” their billions, and happily became thugs and mini tyrants for the machine. It was all magic… mixed with a good dose of arrogance of course.

  But then one day, the magic stopped working.

  The banking system started rupturing and the magic wands had to be used more often. More bailouts, more overnight repo loans for bankrupt speculators (today clocking in at $100 billion/night), more money printing out of thin air and more debt to carry over till next quarter with no thought of paying it off. Soon after the straw stopped turning into gold, the god-like powers of regime change also stopped working. Libya worked fine of course when it was magically thrown back into the stone age joining Iraq and Afghanistan… but Ukraine was harder, and Syria followed by Venezuela were harder still. Why did the magic formula stop working?

  The answer in short: Russia and China both guessed the name.

  Once the name was said aloud, the empire was increasingly exposed for all to see as the bluff masquerading as a God which it always was. Calling the name of the empire was like a spiritual ointment for many who feared the unknown, un-nameable creatures of the dark shadows. Like any shadow confronted with the light, this imp ceased to exert the influence it wished to hold onto the minds and hearts of its victims… and the image of omnipotence it worked so hard to project onto the world turned out to be just that… a projection and nothing more.

  President Putin demonstrated how it is possible with one tenth of the expenses of the US military to destroy ISIS in Syria by the simple application of an intention to actually do it. This intention was always absent from the minds of western geopoliticians who actually preferred to have a growing network of terrorists spread across the Middle East and Africa. Terrorists not only destabilized troublesome nation states as a form of asymmetric warfare, but also provided a convenient excuse to bomb governments targeted for regime change.

  China followed suit by investing massively into the development sector- just as the west had done for years- but with one very big difference: INTENTION. China animated its investments into Africa, Asia, the Middle East and beyond with the intention to actually create prosperity, infrastructure and economic independence in those countries receiving loans. They didn’t use this with magic, but simply by ensuring their money would be invested into genuine nation building projects disconnected from any usurious conditionalities.

  With the important ingredient of intention to actually end terrorism, hunger, disease and poverty infused into global policy-making by Russia and China, the Rumpelstilskins lost more of their power. The empire always relied on the illusion of noble ends but never the substance or means to carry them out. This substance is located entirely in the domain of intention.

  In the west, the shadow creature was given a name (deep state), and with that name, an identity, and modus operandi was identified.

  With that identification, a resistance began to organically emerge as nations found the courage to take a stand- preferring to work with honest partners like Russia, China and the Belt and Road Initiative rather than cling onto the Titanic of the sinking western system.

  Within America, Rumpelstiltskin spasmed in rage and moved in desperation to defend himself when a leader surprisingly came to power extolling friendly relations with Russia and China. This was done first with the sloppy manufacture of Russia-Gate and then the sloppier manufacture of Ukraine-gate… but that also didn’t work. Whether it took the form of left wing socialists or capitalist orange nationalists, the magic once used to easily destroy such troublesome expressions of patriotism in America stopped working as fast as had their bailout powers, or regime change hocus pocus.

  When you watch today’s democratic primary debates and laugh at the fanatic sloppiness of Rumpelstiltskin’s left wing champions cannibalize each other (and themselves) in the process, or as you listen to right wing Rumpelstilskins froth in rage at China’s tyrannical Belt and Road Initiative “empire”, keep in mind that the game, as they say, is really up. The name has been called out, the imp is busy tearing himself to pieces and to the surprise of many who had lost all hope just a few years ago, this story may actually have a happy ending after all.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 03/04/2020 – 22:45

• IMF Head Announces $50 Billion Aid Program For Covid-19 Relief
  IMF Head Announces $50 Billion Aid Program For Covid-19 Relief

  IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told CNBC’s “Squawk Ally” Wednesday that it would launch a $50 billion aid package “immediately” dedicated to combating Covid-19 outbreaks in emerging market countries. This announcement comes after the World Bank said it would fund a $12 billion program on Tuesday to fight the virus that threatens to plunge the global economy into recession. 

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Georgieva told CNBC’s Sara Eisen that the aid program would be interest-free and for countries that don’t have a pre-existing program with the IMF.

  “The $40 billion is for countries that are middle income, and they can approach us and receive the funding immediately. More important is the $10 billion that are accessible for low-income countries. Because most of this money is interest-free. We have signaled to the membership and what we are doing right now is reviewing country by country what are the financial needs and engaging with these countries to make sure that they are aware of this resource and we can immediately respond to them. So, we are in an early stage of engagement. But I can assure you that we will attack very quickly as requests come. What the countries would use the money for, we would like very much to see them prioritizing first and foremost, urgently beefing up their health service capacity so lives are saved, and suffering is reduced. And secondly, to use it for fiscal measures that are well targeted to households, businesses that are most directly impacted by the crisis,” Georgieva said. 

  Eisen asked the managing director if fiscal measures, such as stimulus, would be needed in the US to combat virus impacts on the economy. Georgieva responded: 

  “We believe that all countries should look seriously into the urgency to beef up health systems response. And, yes, that would be money very well spent everywhere. And we also think it is now the time to put in place precautionary measures should the outbreak become more severe. In other words, do we have credit lines for SMEs? Are we thinking of funding workers that cannot go to work because their kids are at home? And these are not measures that we should come with later, we should be prepared now.” 

  Eisen referenced an earlier interview Georgieva had with reporters on Wednesday, where she said global growth in 2020 looks to be weaker than 2019. She asked the managing director: “How deep will this go?” Here’s how Georgieva responded: 

  “Well, what we look at are a more benign scenario and a more adverse scenario. In a more benign scenario, the outbreak would be relatively short lived, and the impact would be felt primarily first quarter, second quarter, followed by recovery. In a more adverse scenario, the outbreak would be a more profound. It would go beyond the countries today. We have 75 countries impacted. It would become truly global. There would be more retrenchment, and in a country the impact would look more like China than not. So, where we would lend between those two scenarios, we are looking very carefully at the data, and of course, listening to the epidemiologists to get a handle on what projection we should make. But there are so many things in between those to the more benign and really adverse, in which we would have a longer drop in growth and a slower recovery, versus a shorter drop and a faster recovery. We do need to exercise some — and accumulate enough bottom-up data from countries, and, source more information from the experts, from the health community. Meanwhile, though, preparedness and action are absolutely critical. It’s better to do more than not enough. And the focus has to be on people.” 

  As far as China’s factory restart, Georgieva had this to say: 

  “Well, there is some good news coming from China in that regard. Capacity is up to around 60%. We heard today from the Governor Yi Gang that they are aiming by the end of the month to go up to 90%. Of course, we have to caveat that, subject to no revival of the epidemic as factories reopen. But at this point, the news from China is, there is a stepping up in production. There will be a negative impact on this year’s growth for China. The leadership there knows it. It is in our expectation. But a stepping up in China, good for China, good for the rest of the world.” 

  Eisen asked if the fast-spreading virus could tilt the US economy into recession if an outbreak develops here; Georgieva responded: 

  “At this point, what we see are two pieces of relatively comforting news. One, the financial system is holding. We are not seeing a major risk. So, all the investment we’ve done over the last ten years is paying off. And, two, there is quite substantial gearing up on measures so we can slow down the impact and reduce it. And that is, I think, our eyes have to be on what can we do to prevent a more adverse impact. And a big part of it is actually confidence building by communicating clearly where we are, what we know, what we don’t know. And act on that basis. Lean forward.”

  On Monday, the OECD urged governments to act “swiftly and forcefully” with coordinated fiscal stimulus to counter ‘severe’ economic impacts that have developed from the unraveling of complex supply chains in Asia and abroad. 

  On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve was spooked into a 50bps emergency rate cut. Rate traders aren’t satisfied with the cut – are now demanding at least another 25bps cut this month. Other central banks on Tuesday followed suit with cuts of their own. 

  So far this week, central banks, NGOs, and governments have deployed a mix of monetary and fiscal stimulus to rescue the global economy from a collapse in growth.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  One thing that is clear: All this stimulus, or the hope of stimulus, has pumped E-Mini S&P500 back above its daily 200EMA. Mission accomplished? 

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 03/04/2020 – 22:25

• Covid-19 Vs. The Mass Surveillance State: Which Poses The Greater Threat?
  Covid-19 Vs. The Mass Surveillance State: Which Poses The Greater Threat?

  Authored by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

  “If, as it seems, we are in the process of becoming a totalitarian society in which the state apparatus is all-powerful, the ethics most important for the survival of the true, free, human individual would be: cheat, lie, evade, fake it, be elsewhere, forge documents, build improved electronic gadgets in your garage that’ll outwit the gadgets used by the authorities.”—Philip K. Dick

  Emboldened by the citizenry’s inattention and willingness to tolerate its abuses, the government has weaponized one national crisis after another in order to expands its powers.

  The war on terror, the war on drugs, the war on illegal immigration, asset forfeiture schemes, road safety schemes, school safety schemes, eminent domain: all of these programs started out as legitimate responses to pressing concerns and have since become weapons of compliance and control in the police state’s hands.

  It doesn’t even matter what the nature of the crisis might be – civil unrest, the national emergencies, “unforeseen economic collapse, loss of functioning political and legal order, purposeful domestic resistance or insurgency, pervasive public health emergencies, and catastrophic natural and human disasters” – as long as it allows the government to justify all manner of government tyranny in the so-called name of national security.

  Now we find ourselves on the brink of a possible coronavirus contagion.

  I’ll leave the media and the medical community to speculate about the impact the coronavirus will have on the nation’s health, but how will the government’s War on the Coronavirus impact our freedoms?

  For a hint of what’s in store, you can look to China—our role model for all things dystopian—where the contagion started.

  In an attempt to fight the epidemic, the government has given its surveillance state apparatus—which boasts the most expansive and sophisticated surveillance system in the world—free rein. Thermal scanners using artificial intelligence (AI) have been installed at train stations in major cities to assess body temperatures and identify anyone with a fever. Facial recognition cameras and cell phone carriers track people’s movements constantly, reporting in real time to data centers that can be accessed by government agents and employers alike. And coded color alerts (red, yellow and green) sort people into health categories that correspond to the amount of freedom of movement they’re allowed: “Green code, travel freely. Red or yellow, report immediately.”

  Mind you, prior to the coronavirus outbreak, the Chinese surveillance state had already been hard at work tracking its citizens through the use of some 200 million security cameras installed nationwide. Equipped with facial recognition technology, the cameras allow authorities to track so-called criminal acts, such as jaywalking, which factor into a person’s social credit score.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Social media credit scores assigned to Chinese individuals and businesses categorize them on whether or not they are “good” citizens. A real-name system—which requires people to use government-issued ID cards to buy mobile sims, obtain social media accounts, take a train, board a plane, or even buy groceries—coupled with social media credit scores ensures that those blacklisted as “unworthy” are banned from accessing financial markets, buying real estate or travelling by air or train. Among the activities that can get you labeled unworthy are taking reserved seats on trains or causing trouble in hospitals.

  That same social credit score technology used to identify, track and segregate citizens is now one of China’s chief weapons in its fight to contain the coronavirus from spreading. However, it is far from infallible and a prime example of the difficulties involved in navigating an autonomous system where disembodied AI systems call the shots. For instance, one woman, who has no symptoms of the virus but was assigned a red code based on a visit to her hometown, has been blocked from returning to her home and job until her color code changes. She has been stuck in this state of limbo for weeks with no means of challenging the color code or knowing exactly why she’s been assigned a red code.

  Fighting the coronavirus epidemic has given China the perfect excuse for unleashing the full force of its surveillance and data collection powers. The problem, as Eamon Barrett acknowledges in Fortune magazine, is what happens after: “Once the outbreak is controlled, it’s unclear whether the government will retract its new powers.”

  The lesson for the ages: once any government is allowed to expand its powers, it’s almost impossible to pull back.

  Meanwhile, here in the U.S., the government thus far has limited its coronavirus preparations to missives advising the public to stay calm, wash their hands, and cover their mouths when they cough and sneeze.

  Don’t go underestimating the government’s ability to lock the nation down if the coronavirus turns into a pandemic, however. After all, the government has been planning and preparing for such a crisis for years now.

  The building blocks are already in place for such an eventuality: the surveillance networks, fusion centers and government contractors that already share information in real time; the government’s massive biometric databases that can identify individuals based on genetic and biological markers; the militarized police, working in conjunction with federal agencies, ready and able to coordinate with the federal government when it’s time to round up the targeted individuals; the courts that will sanction the government’s methods, no matter how unlawful, as long as it’s done in the name of national security; and the detention facilities, whether private prisons or FEMA internment camps, that have been built and are waiting to be filled.

  Now all of this may sound far-fetched to you now, but we’ve already arrived at the dystopian futures prophesied by George Orwell’s 1984, Aldous Huxley’s Brave New World, and Philip K. Dick’s Minority Report.

  It won’t take much more to push us over the edge into Neill Blomkamp’s Elysium, in which the majority of humanity is relegated to an overpopulated, diseased, warring planet where the government employs technologies such as drones, tasers and biometric scanners to track, target and control the populace.

  Mind you, while these technologies are already in use today and being hailed for their potentially life-saving, cost-saving, time-saving benefits, it won’t be long before the drawbacks to having a government equipped with technology that makes it all-seeing, all-knowing, and all-powerful——helped along by the citizenry—far outdistance the benefits.

  On a daily basis, Americans are relinquishing (in many cases, voluntarily) the most intimate details of who we are—their biological makeup, our genetic blueprints, and our biometrics (facial characteristics and structure, fingerprints, iris scans, etc.)—in order to navigate an increasingly technologically-enabled world.

  Consider all the ways you continue to be tracked, hunted, hounded, and stalked by the government and its dubious agents:

  • By tapping into your phone lines and cell phone communications, the government knows what you say.

  • By uploading all of your emails, opening your mail, and reading your Facebook posts and text messages, the government knows what you write.

  • By monitoring your movements with the use of license plate readers, surveillance cameras and other tracking devices, the government knows where you go.

  • By churning through all of the detritus of your life—what you read, where you go, what you say—the government can predict what you will do.

  • By mapping the synapses in your brain, scientists—and in turn, the government—will soon know what you remember.

  • By mapping your biometrics—your “face-print”—and storing the information in a massive, shared government database available to bureaucratic agencies, police and the military, the government’s goal is to use facial recognition software to identify you (and every other person in the country) and track your movements, wherever you go.

  • And by accessing your DNA, the government will soon know everything else about you that they don’t already know: your family chart, your ancestry, what you look like, your health history, your inclination to follow orders or chart your own course, etc.

  Of course, none of these technologies are foolproof.

  Nor are they immune from tampering, hacking or user bias.

  Nevertheless, they have become a convenient tool in the hands of government agents to render null and void the Constitution’s requirements of privacy and its prohibitions against unreasonable searches and seizures.

  The ramifications of a government—any government—having this much unregulated, unaccountable power to target, track, round up and detain its citizens is beyond chilling.

  Imagine what a totalitarian regime such as Nazi Germany could have done with this kind of unadulterated power.

  Imagine what the next police state to follow in Germany’s footsteps will do with this kind of power. Society is rapidly moving in that direction.

  We’ve made it so easy for the government to watch us.

  Government eyes see your every move: what you read, how much you spend, where you go, with whom you interact, when you wake up in the morning, what you’re watching on television and reading on the internet.

  Every move you make is being monitored, mined for data, crunched, and tabulated in order to form a picture of who you are, what makes you tick, and how best to control you when and if it becomes necessary to bring you in line.

  Chances are, as the Washington Post has reported, you have already been assigned a color-coded threat assessment score—green, yellow or red—so police are forewarned about your potential inclination to be a troublemaker depending on whether you’ve had a career in the military, posted a comment perceived as threatening on Facebook, suffer from a particular medical condition, or know someone who knows someone who might have committed a crime.

  In other words, you’re most likely already flagged in a government database somewhere.

  The government has the know-how.

  Indeed, for years now, the FBI and Justice Department have conspired to acquire near-limitless power and control over biometric information collected on law-abiding individuals, millions of whom have never been accused of a crime.

  Going far beyond the scope of those with criminal backgrounds, the FBI’s Next Generation Identification database (NGID), a billion dollar boondoggle that is aimed at dramatically expanding the government’s ID database from a fingerprint system to a vast data storehouse of iris scans, photos searchable with face recognition technology, palm prints, and measures of gait and voice recordings alongside records of fingerprints, scars, and tattoos.

  Launched in 2008, the NGID is a massive biometric database that contains more than 100 million fingerprints and 45 million facial photos gathered from a variety of sources ranging from criminal suspects and convicts to daycare workers and visa applicants, including millions of people who have never committed or even been accused of a crime.

  In other words, innocent American citizens are now automatically placed in a suspect database.

  For a long time, the government was required to at least observe some basic restrictions on when, where and how it could access someone’s biometrics and DNA and use it against them.

  That is no longer the case.

  The information is being amassed through a variety of routine procedures, with the police leading the way as prime collectors of biometrics for something as non-threatening as a simple moving violation. The nation’s courts are also doing their part to “build” the database, requiring biometric information as a precursor to more lenient sentences. And of course Corporate America (including Google, Facebook, Amazon, etc.) has made it so easy to use one’s biometrics to access everything from bank accounts to cell phones.

  We’ve made it so easy for the government to target, identify and track us.

  Add pre-crime programs into the mix with government agencies and corporations working in tandem to determine who is a potential danger and spin a sticky spider-web of threat assessments, behavioral sensing warnings, flagged “words,” and “suspicious” activity reports using automated eyes and ears, social media, behavior sensing software, and citizen spies, and you having the makings for a perfect dystopian nightmare.

  This is the kind of oppressive pre-crime and pre-thought crime package foreshadowed by George Orwell, Aldous Huxley and Phillip K. Dick.

  Remember, even the most well-intentioned government law or program can be—and has been—perverted, corrupted and used to advance illegitimate purposes once profit and power are added to the equation.

  In the right (or wrong) hands, benevolent plans can easily be put to malevolent purposes.

  Surveillance, digital stalking and the data mining of the American people add up to a society in which there’s little room for indiscretions, imperfections, or acts of independence.

  This is the creepy, calculating yet diabolical genius of the American police state: the very technology we hailed as revolutionary and liberating has become our prison, jailer, probation officer, Big Brother and Father Knows Best all rolled into one.

  It turns out that we are Soylent Green.

  The 1973 film of the same name, starring Charlton Heston and Edward G. Robinson, is set in 2022 in an overpopulated, polluted, starving New York City whose inhabitants depend on synthetic foods manufactured by the Soylent Corporation for survival.

  Heston plays a policeman investigating a murder, who discovers the grisly truth about the primary ingredient in the wafer, soylent green, which is the principal source of nourishment for a starved population. “It’s people. Soylent Green is made out of people,” declares Heston’s character. “They’re making our food out of people. Next thing they’ll be breeding us like cattle for food.”

  Oh, how right he was.

  Soylent Green is indeed people or, in our case, Soylent Green is our own personal data, repossessed, repackaged and used by corporations and the government to entrap us.

  Without constitutional protections in place to guard against encroachments on our rights when power, technology and militaristic governance converge, it won’t be long before we find ourselves, much like Edward G. Robinson’s character in Soylent Green, looking back on the past with longing, back to an age where we could speak to whom we wanted, buy what we wanted, think what we wanted, and go where we wanted without those thoughts, words and movements being tracked, processed and stored by corporate giants such as Google, sold to government agencies such as the NSA and CIA, and used against us by militarized police with their army of futuristic technologies.

  We’re not quite there yet. But that moment of reckoning is getting closer by the minute.

  In the meantime, we’ve got an epidemic to survive, so go ahead and wash your hands. Cover your mouth when you cough or sneeze. And stock up on whatever you might need to survive this virus if it spreads to your community.

  We are indeed at our most vulnerable right now, but as I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, it’s the American Surveillance State—not the coronavirus—that poses the greatest threat to our freedoms.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 03/04/2020 – 22:05

• Berkshire Says Its Annual Meeting Is A Go For May 2, Despite Coronavirus Outbreak
  Berkshire Says Its Annual Meeting Is A Go For May 2, Despite Coronavirus Outbreak

  Berkshire’s Warren Buffett has said that the company’s annual shareholder meeting, scheduled for May 2, is going to take place as planned, despite the coronavirus outbreak in the U.S.

  Some of the surrounding events around the meeting may wind up being curtailed, however. 

  Berkshire posted a brief announcement on its website early this week that simply says:

  The Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholders Meeting will be held on May 2, 2020 irrespective of conditions at that time. The scope of the meeting and associated activities may be modified by circumstances at the time, but we have no present plans to do so.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Buffett’s shareholder meeting is one of the largest corporate gatherings in America, according to Reuters. And what better way to show your “buy stocks forever” and “America (and its Central Bankers) will prevail” sentiment than to ignore the science behind the coronavirus and get 40,000 or more people into the same meeting rooms and events in Omaha over a three day weekend. 

  The events include not only the meeting, but a picnic, a 5K run and even a dinner for select attendees at a nearby steakhouse.

  For those not interested in contracting coronavirus, the meeting will also be livestreamed by Yahoo Finance, who will allow viewers to watch Buffett’s top lieutenant, Charlie Munger, field incoming questions for hours. 

  Buffett’s recommendation flies in the face of many U.S. companies that are now restricting travel for employees in response to the outbreak. Buffett said that he “expected” that many of the Chinese visitors who typically make their way to Omaha won’t attend this year.

  He’d better hope so…

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 03/04/2020 – 21:45

• A Beijing Hospital Confirms Covid-19 Attacks Central Nervous System
  A Beijing Hospital Confirms Covid-19 Attacks Central Nervous System

  Via CNTechPost.com,

  Beijing Ditan Hospital affiliated to the Capital Medical University said on March 4 that the first patient with novel coronavirus pneumonia complicated with encephalitis was discharged from the hospital on February 25.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Liu Jingyuan, director of the ICU at the Hospital, presided over the treatment of the patient. He reminded that patients with conscious disturbances must consider the possibility that the virus may attack the central nervous system.

  At present, patients with new type of coronavirus pneumonia can be combined with multiple organ damages such as severe respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), myocardial damage, abnormal coagulation function, kidney damage, liver damage, etc. However, no central nervous system involvement has been reported. The case report is the first in the world.

  Previous studies on SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) and MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) have also shown that the coronaviruses that cause these two diseases also cause cases of central nervous system damage.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  According to the introduction of Beijing Ditan Hospital, two suspected cases of new-type coronavirus pneumonia have been treated since January 12 this year (confirmed on January 20). As of 7:00 on March 4, the hospital has accumulatively received 150 patients with new-type coronavirus pneumonia, of which the above patient is the only patient with new type of coronavirus pneumonia and encephalitis.

  The 56-year-old patient was admitted to the hospital on January 24 with new coronavirus pneumonia, critical illness, and respiratory failure. After admission, he was given a combination of interferon nebulization, antiviral treatment, prevention of bacterial infection, and TCM syndrome differentiation. No improvement, high fever, fatigue, and dyspnea gradually increased.

  On January 27 (10th day of onset), a chest CT showed that the range of ground-glass density in both lungs was enlarged, and some of them were consolidating. Short-term nasal high-flow oxygen inhalation, no relief in breathing distress, irritability, breathing 50 breaths per minute, partial oxygen pressure of 85%, intubation in the ICU, mechanical ventilation in accordance with the principle of ARDS breathing ventilation.

  After 96 hours of treatment (day 14 of the onset), the patient developed frequent twitching of the maxillofacial and mouth angles with persistent hiccups.

  On examination, the doctor found positive neck resistance, bilateral pupils and other large contours, sluggish light reflection, increased limb muscle tension, bilateral knee reflexes, bilateral Pap sign and ankle clonus, and no intracranial CT scan. Abnormal, the cerebrospinal fluid pressure was greater than 330mmH2O, the appearance of the cerebrospinal fluid was colorless and clear, and the biochemical test was normal.

  Beijing Ditan Hospital’s Department of Critical Medicine, Laboratory Medicine, and the China Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Infectious Diseases Joint Working Group performed metagenome second-generation sequencing of the collected cerebrospinal fluid specimens and identified possible infectious pathogens. Other pathogens were excluded and a new coronavirus was obtained. Genomic sequence.

  Gene sequencing confirmed the existence of a new coronavirus in the cerebrospinal fluid and clinical diagnosis of viral encephalitis.

  Subsequently, the medical staff treated the patients with viral encephalitis after 14 days of mechanical ventilation and mannitol to control intracranial pressure, midazolam to control convulsions, gamma globulin, and methylprednisolone anti-inflammatory treatment, and observed the patient’s lung disease imaging gradually. Improved, neurological symptoms disappeared.

  On February 10 (day 24 of the onset of illness), the trachea was intubated and the nasal cannula was given oxygen after fully assessing the patient’s respiratory and neural function. On February 18 (the 32nd day after the onset of illness), he was transferred out of the intensive care unit and continued to receive treatment in the new coronavirus ward.

  Liu Jingyuan reminded that in clinical observation, there were many cases of cervical resistance, positive pathological signs, sudden disturbance of consciousness and even coma.

  He said that in the face of such patients, it is necessary to be vigilant to the new type of coronavirus infection that can affect the central nervous system, timely conduct relevant examinations such as cerebrospinal fluid, and improve the work on SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid and gene sequencing of cerebrospinal fluid in order to better understand COVID-19. Explore and actively deal with related neurological complications, thereby further reducing the mortality of critically ill patients.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 03/04/2020 – 21:25

• Operations Suspended At F-35 Stealth Jet Factory In Japan Due To Virus Fears
  Operations Suspended At F-35 Stealth Jet Factory In Japan Due To Virus Fears

  America’s F-35 stealth aircraft factory in Japan shuttered operations for a week due to new concerns over the Covid-19 outbreak, reported Defense News.

  The closure of the F-35 stealth factory comes as Covid-19 infections in Japan rose above 1,000 on Wednesday, most of which are from the quarantined Diamond Princess cruise ship.

  This prompted the closure of the F-35 factory in Japan, Ellen Lord, the undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment, told reporters on Wednesday. She said the F-35’s global supply chain has yet to be impacted by the virus.

  “In Japan, I believe they shut down the Final Assembly and Check-Out (FACO) for a week,” Lord said.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  While much of the F-35 is produced at Lockheed Martin’s factory in Ft. Worth, Texas, Japan has managed to become integrated into the production of the fifth-generation jet.

  Still, “right now, it doesn’t look like it is affecting deliveries” of the F-35, Lord said. “Right now, we have not seen any effects.”

  With the virus spreading worldwide, South Korea, Italy, Iran, and other countries in Europe, have been hard hit by the virus. Another F-35 factory in Italy has taken precautions to minimize virus spreading, she added. 

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  She said at the F-35 plant in Italy, “Lockheed has directed their employees to work from home.”

  Lord said the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Homeland Defense and Global Security has been monitoring the global supply chain of the F-35 and potential virus impacts, including “scenario planning” of supply chain disruptions.

  Defense News notes the F-35 program is “the most globally integrated supply chain in military equipment history.”

  “Combating the Coronavirus remains a top priority for the department, and Secretary Esper meets weekly with senior leaders to discuss how we’re taking care of our men and women in uniform around the world,” said DoD spokesman Lt. Col. Mike Andrews. “The department remains fully engaged with the defense industrial base on all programs, including the F-35, and stands ready to respond when needed.”

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 03/04/2020 – 21:05

• Fauci Warns Outbreak Could Overwhelm US Health-Care System, Cali Declares State Of Emergency: Live Updates
  Fauci Warns Outbreak Could Overwhelm US Health-Care System, Cali Declares State Of Emergency: Live Updates

  Summary:

  • LAX screener tests positive

  • New York has reported another 5 case, raising the total to 11.

  • Dr. Fauci says up to 20% of Covid-19 cases could require hospitalization

  • Trump confirms he’ll sign emergency virus package

  • Cali reports 1st death, bringing US toll to 11

  • South Korea reports 438 new cases, deaths climb to 35

  • Pence says US death toll has climbed to 10

  • The US House has passed an $8.3 billion to fight the virus.

  • Italy finally confirms school closure

  • Italy will ban public events, and close cinemas and theaters even though the government denied an earlier ANSA report that the country would also close schools & universities momentarily

  • Fla reports 4th case

  • CDC investigating cruise ship ‘Grand Princess’ linked to cluster of cases in NorCal

  • Italy urges elderly people to stay indoors if possible

  • Irag confirms 3rd death

  • Slovenia confirms 1st case

  • Brazil records 3rd case

  • Ecuador confirms 3 new cases, raising total to 10

  • Pence confirms after meeting airline execs that travelers from Italy & SK would be tested multiple times

  • German finance minister declares outbreak “a global pandemic”

  • Cali joins Washington & Florida in declaring state of emergency

  • Russia blames “enemies” for spreading fake news about outbreak

  • Israel urges people to stop shaking hands, will quarantine travelers from most of Europe

  • EU reports a second coronavirus case at its headquarters in Brussels

  • France has reported 28 new coronavirus cases, bringing the total to 285

  • UK cases surge by 34 to a total of 85 – a 66% surge.

  • China reported 119 additional coronavirus cases and 38 additional deaths

  • South Korea reported 809 additional coronavirus cases and 4 additional deaths; has carried out 136,000 tests

  • Israel quarantines group of soccer fans

  • “Official” Iranian death toll hits 92

  • Saudi suspends Umra pilgrimage

  • Japan confirms 3 more cases from Osaka

  * * *
  Update (2040ET): Yonhap reports that South Korea has reported 438 new cases of the novel coronavirus, bringing the national total to 5,766. Most of the new cases were identified in the southeastern Daegu, a city of 2.5 million and the epicenter of the outbreak.

  As of Thursday morning in Seoul, the death toll had climbed to 35, mostly elderly patients with underlying illnesses.

  So far, roughly 60% of SK cases have been linked to a branch of the Shincheonji church in Daegu.

  * * *

  Update (1930ET): China reported another drop in cases on Wednesday: 139 additional cases of coronavirus and 31 additional deaths on March 4 compared to the day prior, when the gov’t reported 119 additional cases and 38 additional deaths. The total number of cases in mainland China has risen to 80,409, and the death toll has hit 3,012  

  * * *

  Update (1915ET): Cali Gov. Gavin Newsom has followed the lead of the governors of Florida and Washington State by declaring a state-wide ‘State of Emergency’. He also promised that the state would “monitor” price gouging.

  Watch the rest of his briefing with state officials here:

  LIVE: Governor @GavinNewsom and State Health Officials hold a #COVID19 briefing in Sacramento. https://t.co/epnqSKL40h

  — Office of the Governor of California (@CAgovernor) March 5, 2020

  Oh and three new cases reported in Santa Clara:

  • SANTA CLARA COUNTY CA REPORTS 3 NEW CASES OF COVID-19 TOTAL NOW 14 IN THE COUNTY – KTVU

  * * *

  Update (1850ET): Now that the latest White House task force press conference is over, we’d like to highlight one comment that seems to have attracted a lot of attention this evening: Dr. Fauci’s “estimate” that “15-20%” of those infected with the virus will require hospitalization.

  Dr. Fauci said 15-20% of people who get #coronavirus will need hospitalization. Think about the scale of that if virus spreads.

  This is why testing is so important to help contain the virus. And why the House will pass a supplemental funding package to combat coronavirus. https://t.co/b4G3LnC38A

  — Ted Lieu (@tedlieu) February 29, 2020

  That’s much higher than the hospitalization rate for the flu, which, according to the CDC is a tiny fraction of a percentage point (though, of course, there’s a vaccine for the flu).

  As Ted Lieu notes above, just think of all the hospital resources that this could consume.

  Also, check out the mainstream press’s latest stunt to make the administration look bad (Trump already said they’re working on a plan to make sure cost isn’t an obstacle to people getting tested).

  Pence ended his latest briefing by claiming “the risk of the coronavirus to the average American remains low,” then walked off w/o answering @BrianKarem‘s question about “can the uninsured get tested?!”

  “Screaming for the camera isn’t gonna get you anywhere,” an official scolded pic.twitter.com/hT7KLKzYid

  — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 4, 2020

  As we wait for the Senate to pass the $8.3 billion emergency spending bill, President Trump has confirmed that he plans to sign it.

  Congress has agreed to provide $8 Billion to fight Coronavirus! This means @CDCgov, @HHSGov, and @DHSgov will have the resources they need to Keep America Safe and keep the risk to workers and families very low. This is great news for our Health, our Economy, and our Nation!

  — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 4, 2020

  Which is good, because we’lre going to need that money to slap together a few hospitals once the symptoms really start hitting.

  * * *

  Update (1740ET): In his latest press conference, VP Pence revealed that there are at least 100 active coronavirus cases, but that the risk to the American public remains low. The official total is actually 154 if we count the 48 evacuees.

  In the middle of the task force update, NBC News dropped a bombshell: A CDC contractor who screened arriving passengers for the virus at LAX just tested positive.

  The worker reportedly wore the appropriate protective gear while screening passengers — it was not immediately clear whether they contracted the virus through contact with an infected passenger, or if it was a case of community transmission.

  According to DHS, the health worker is self-quarantining at home under “medical supervision.” They are experiencing only mild symptoms, similar to a cold. The worker’s family members are also under home quarantine.

  The emailed statement also said these screeners are predominantly assigned to the CDC in-transit lounge and a few support jetway screening on direct flights from China.”

  The agency added that the “highly trained” individual began experiencing symptoms on Saturday.

  Here’s the statement:

  “Late last night, DHS headquarters was alerted to a situation where one of our contracted medical professionals conducting screenings at LAX international airport had tested positive for COVID-19, also known as the coronavirus. This individual is currently under self-quarantine at home with mild symptoms and under medical supervision. Their immediate family is also under home quarantine.”

  “DHS is happy to report that this individual was highly trained and did everything right both on the job and when they began to feel sick. We are told the individual wore all the correct protective equipment and took necessary protections on the job. Additionally, as soon as the individual began to feel sick, they self-quarantined, saw a physician, and reported to the appropriate authorities and officials.”

  * * *

  Update (1650ET): The House passed a roughly $8.3 billion emergency spending package for combating the coronavirus outbreak, sending the legislation to the Senate as lawmakers raced to respond to the quickly spreading disease.

  As The Wasll Street Journal reports, the bill provides more than $3 billion for developing treatments for the disease and allocates $2.2 billion for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to contain the disease, among other measures. Under the legislation, which the Senate will also likely pass this week, more than $1 billion will go overseas, while $20 million will be made available to fund administrative expenses for loans to U.S. small businesses.

  The final deal includes $300 million for the government to purchase the vaccine and other therapeutics and make them available to the public.

  It calls on Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar to use currently available authority to ensure the price is “affordable in the commercial market,” while additionally stating that he shouldn’t delay the drug’s development.

  The legislation, crafted by top Republicans and Democrats, caps less than two weeks of negotiations that began when the White House said it planned to spend roughly $2.5 billion on fighting the disease, an amount lawmakers said was too low. President Trump has subsequently said he would sign whatever package Congress approves.

  * * *

  Update (1615ET): Slovenia has joined Hungary in confirming its first case of coronavirus.

  The Balkan nation is best-known to Americans as the birth country of First Lady Melania Trump.

  Meanwhile, here’s a smattering of other corona-related news:

  • STUDENT IN DUBAI INFECTED WITH CORONAVIRUS: ARABIYA
  • UNITED AIRLINES TO REDUCE FLIGHTS, FREEZE HIRING ON CORONAVIRUS
  • AIRBUS IS SAID TO WEIGH A330 OUTPUT CUT AS VIRUS HITS CUSTOMERS
  • CORONAVIRUS CAUSING RECONSIDERATION OF AIR TRAVEL: DOT’S SZABAT
  • GLOBAL AIR PASSENGERS MAY FALL 6%, SZABAT SAYS CITING ANALYSTS
  • ABOUT 15K AIR PASSENGERS CAME FROM CHINA/DAY BEFORE VIRUS: DOT
  • FEWER THAN 1K AIR PASSENGERS TO U.S. FROM CHINA PER DAY: DOT
  • CDC’S ESTIMATED COVID-19 FATALITY RATE IS .05%-1.0%, REDD SAYS
  • CORONAVIRUS CAN SURVIVE ON SURFACES FOR UP TO 1 DAY: CDC’S REDD
  • APPLE HAS RE-OPENED 38 OF 42 RETAIL STORES IN MAINLAND CHINA

  * * *

  Update (1545ET): New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo confirmed 5 more cases in Westchester, raising the state’s total to 11, during his third press conference on the outbreak in less than 24 hours.

  Last time we checked, the family members of infected Westchester lawyer Lawrence Garbuz had also all tested positive. Now, it appears a friend of Garbuz, and that friend’s whole family, have also tested positive. This second infected family is also situated in Westchester County.

  * * *

  Update (1535ET): Brazil reports a third case, a 46-year-old Colombian national.

  * * *

  Update (1530ET): Health officials in Baghdad have reported their second death in the capital city; it marks the first death in Iraq as a whole (a death was also reported in the town of Sulaimanyah).

  #Coronavirus cases in #Iraq:

  Baghdad: 14
  Kirkuk: 5
  Sulaymaniyah: 5
  Najaf: 4
  Wasit: 2
  Diyalah: 2
  Babil: 1
  Maysan: 1
  Karbala: 1

  Total: 35

  Deaths: 2#COVID19 #CoronaVirusUpdates

  — Raveen Aujmaya (@raveenaujmaya) March 4, 2020

  As readers can see, the number of cases in the country has more than doubled in recent days as the virus seeps across the border…

  * * *

  Update (1440ET): Italy has ordered sporting events to continue without fans until April 3, the AP reports.

  As we head toward the Euro 2020, get ready to see more of this.

  And the UAE just barred people from attending soccer games.

  And now that Japan has started the conversation about a possible delay of the Olympics…it’s looking increasingly likely that it will be delayed, if not cancelled outright.

  Back in Seattle, NYT has more information about the latest rash of cases:

  A high school in the Seattle suburbs was closed on Wednesday through the end of the week, after a student tested positive for the virus. The Renton School District said it had learned of the test result for a student at Hazen High School late on Tuesday and had closed the school on the advice of county health officials.

  The student was at home recovering, the district said. County health officials were tracing all those who had come into contact with the student in recent days.

  Also on Tuesday, Amazon emailed its staff in the Seattle area saying that it had learned that an employee in one of its buildings in the South Lake Union neighborhood had tested positive. The employee had not been to work since Feb. 25, the email said.

  US lawmakers have reportedly reached a deal on $8.3 billion in emergency coronavirus spending bill, which includes nearly $8 billion in funding for agencies fighting the virus, and $500 million to allow Medicare providers to administer tele-health services better suited to the elderly.

  Racing to confront a growing public health threat, key lawmakers in the House and Senate reached a deal on Wednesday to provide $8.3 billion in emergency aid to combat the novel coronavirus, and the House planned a vote later Wednesday to approve it, according to three officials familiar with the negotiations.

  The bipartisan package, which includes nearly $7.8 billion for agencies dealing with the virus and came together after days of rapid negotiations, is substantially larger than what the White House initially proposed in late February.

  It also authorizes roughly $500 million to allow Medicare providers to administer tele-health services so that more elderly patients, who are at greater risk from the virus, can receive care at home, according to two of the officials. They spoke on condition of anonymity in advance of a formal announcement.

  Meanwhile, some more information about Cali’s first death: The elderly patient had tested positive Tuesday and was in “critically ill” condition at Kaiser Permanente in Roseville.

  * * *

  Update (1425ET): Minutes after Washington confirmed US death No. 10, California has reported its first coronavirus-linked death, the 11th in the country.

  The death was reported in Placer County, which had reported two cases, including an older adult who was “critically ill” late Tuesday.

  According to the Sacramento Bee, Placer County reported that the critically ill patient was in isolation at a local hospital, becoming that county’s second reported case of the virus, while Contra Costa Health Services said it confirmed the first locally originating case of COVID-19 involving a resident of the East Bay Area county. Both were “presumptive” positives as of last night.

  Placer County officials said the critically ill patient was likely exposed to the virus while on a Grand Princess cruise ship that traveled from San Francisco to Mexico between Feb. 11 and Feb. 22. Another case linked to the cruise ship was reported by Sonoma County health officials earlier.

  So, it’s possible that Cali’s first virus-linked death caught the virus aboard the Grand Princess.

  Meanwhile, up in Washington, the number of cases in the two counties in suburban Seattle that have reported all of Washington State’s cases has risen to 39, along with 10 deaths, up from 27 and 9 deaths.

  * * *

  Update (1420ET): The New York Times reports that roughly 100 households in and around New Rochelle, a small city in New York’s Westchester County, are under self-quarantine after five of the state’s six confirmed cases involved a local family.

  * * *

  Update (1400ET): Washington State officials have reported another death, though it’s unclear if this is the same death that VP Pence was referring to when he said earlier that the US death toll had climbed to 10.

  Algeria has reported nine new cases, according to the health ministry.

  * * *

  Update (1340ET): France reports another 28 cases, raising its national total to 285. Deaths remained steady at 8.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Officials in Iraq are reporting a death in Baghdad; it’s unclear if this is the same case from earlier, or a different case.

  * * *

  Update (1325ET): The US CDC has investigated “small clusters” of coronavirus cases linked to previous journey of the Grand Princess cruise ship. The cruise ship is skipping a planned stop in Mexico and will return to SF on Thursday. All passengers who have been aboard the ship since Feb. 21 have been asked to stay in their rooms.

  The small cluster of cases in NorCal has been linked to ship.

  Here’s the statement from the company to guests:

  Dear Princess Guest:

  I wish to advise you that today we have been notified by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that they are investigating a small cluster of COVID-19 (coronavirus) cases in Northern California connected to our previous Grand Princess voyage that sailed roundtrip San Francisco from February 11 to February 21. We are working closely with our CDC partners and are following their recommendations.

  For those guests who sailed with us on our previous voyage and may have been exposed, in an abundance of caution, the CDC requires you to remain in your stateroom until you have been contacted and cleared by our medical staff. A member of our medical team will be calling you between the hours of 8:00 AM and 11:00 AM this morning. You may order room service while you wait for the medical screening to be completed, and we apologize for any inconvenience.

  Here we go again…

  * * *

  Update (1300ET): As the White House coronavirus meeting in front of a bevy of TV cameras continues, VP Pence has just confirmed that the death toll in the US has climbed to the US, though he didn’t say where the new death has been counted.

  The latest total case count in the US is 137, according to BNO. Of those, 48 were repatriated during the evacuations of Wuhan and the Diamond Princess. Only 89 were diagnosed in the US.

  This would suggest a mortality rate of roughly 10% if you only count the domestic cases. Since the WHO yesterday confirmed that the latest data would put the rate at 3.4%, this would suggest that thousands of cases haven’t yet been identified in the US.

  Over in Europe, Hungary has just confirmed its first case of the virus, becoming the latest country to confirm the virus. Meanwhile, here’s the latest breakdown for Italy.

  Coronavirus update, Italy:

  – 587 new cases today
  – 3,089 cases in total
  – 1,346 hospitalized
  – 276 recovered
  – 107 deaths
  – 295 in intensive care

  — Norbert Elekes (@NorbertElekes) March 4, 2020

  In South Korea, government officials have carried out 136,000 tests.

  * * *

  Update (1240ET): Fla. Gov. Ron DeSantis has confirmed that a fourth person has tested positive for the novel coronavirus in his state.

  * * *

  Update (1220ET): Italian public health officials have confirmed plans to keep schools closed until March 15.

  Italy, the epicenter of the outbreak in Europe, is reportedly preparing to take restrictions to the next level and close all schools and universities in the country for at least two weeks. This comes as the total case count has climbed above 3k, while the death toll has climbed to 107, according to health officials.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Over in the US, reports from Capitol Hill claim the bill to approve emergency coronavirus funding might be ready for a vote Wednesday evening. Reports yesterday claimed the vote wouldn’t come until next week.

  * * *

  Update (1140ET): During a press conference that they announced last night, LA County public health officials have reported another rash of cases, and declared a local emergency, according to media reports. Meanwhile, the CDC said 40 cases are under investigation.

  Watch live below:

  LA County declared its first case back in January, but that case has since recovered. With the six new cases, the total in the county has risen to seven. One person is hospitalized, but the other six are being isolated and closely monitored at home.

  Here’s more on the announcement, courtesy of ABC 7:

   Los Angeles County officials on Wednesday declared a state of emergency as they confirmed six new cases of novel coronavirus in the county.

  The county Board of Supervisors and Department of Public Health made the announcement alongside L.A. Mayor Eric Garcetti and public health officials from Long Beach and Pasadena, which both have their own public health department.

  County Supervisors and the Los Angeles City Council are both expected to hear reports during their Wednesday meetings about the status of the illness locally.

  The county’s second case of COVID-19 was confirmed on Tuesday by Kaiser Permanente who is overseeing the care of the patient, currently in self-isolation and being treated as an outpatient, a spokesperson said. Additional details regarding the case were not available.

  In Orange County, two people tested positive for the novel coronavirus, though the diagnoses were described as “presumptive positive,” pending final confirmation from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

  County health officer Dr. Nichole Quick said the county recently improved its ability to perform COVID-19 testing and therefore “we expect to see more cases here in Orange County.”

  None of the new cases are of unknown origin: Three of the six recently returned from northern Italy, two were exposed to infected family members in a different county, and another worked in an environment that brought him into contact with travelers.

  Over in Washington, a damning insider report from Stat News, it appears that researchers in Washington State have managed to start uncovering the true extent of the outbreak until local officials found a way to get around the CDC.

  Jesus, the outbreak around Seattle was only found bc enterprising researchers found a way to *get
  around the CDC.*https://t.co/Zl4QTqLIP9 pic.twitter.com/IGy8CTdurl

  — Eric Umansky (@ericuman) March 3, 2020

  As the Trump-Pence-CDC presser continues, Trump hinted at a possible quarantine by saying the US might “close up” areas that become a “problem.” Trump also said that airlines hadn’t yet asked for any financial aid.

  • TRUMP: AS CERTAIN AREAS BECOME A PROBLEM, WE MIGHT CLOSE THEM UP
  • TRUMP SAYS AIRLINES HAVE NOT ASKED FOR ANY U.S. FINANCIAL SUPPORT, HAVEN’T DISCUSSED THAT YET
  • WHITE HOUSE MEETING ON CORONAVIRUS EXPECTED TO INCLUDE AIRLINE REPRESENTATIVES FROM SOUTHWEST, ALASKA AIR, UNITED, JETBLUE, REPUBLIC AIRWAYS, HAWAIIAN

  Meanwhile, after Jim Bullard said during an interview that he feels monetary policy is “in the right place,” S&P Global cut its GDP forecast for the eurozone to 0.5% from 1%, and 0.8% for the UK, down  from 1%.

  * * *

  Update (1130ET): During a press conference on Wednesday following a meeting between President Trump and VP Pence and the leaders of the airline industry, Pence confirmed earlier reports that travelers from Italy and SK would be subjected to multiple tests before boarding a plane to the US, and multiple times after landing.

  Pence also praised the FDA’s decision to expand testing to university labs and other state labs. Trump blamed the Obama Administration for a vague ‘decision’ that Trump blamed for slowing down testing. Trump has now undone that decision.

  Here are some of the headlines from the presser:

  • AIRLINE CEOS TELL TRUMP THEY STEPPED UP CLEANING EFFORTS
  • PENCE: NEW PRIORITIES ON INSPECTIONS TO BE RELEASED TODAY
  • PENCE SAYS ALL PASSENGERS FROM ITALY, SOUTH KOREA ARE BEING SCREENED MULTIPLE TIMES FOR CORONAVIRUS

  Earlier, HHS Secretary Azar told Fox News during an interview that the administration is working with the private sector to develop a better coronavirus test.

  • U.S. HEALTH SECRETARY AZAR SAYS ADMINISTRATION IS WORKING WITH PRIVATE SECTOR SO THEY DEVELOP CORONAVIRUS TEST WITHOUT FDA APPROVAL -FOX NEWS INTERVIEW
  • SEC. AZAR SAYS 12-18 MONTHS BEFORE POSSIBLE VACCINE: FOX NEWS

  In Italy, government officials are still weighing whether to close all schools, while also shutting all events, sports games and cinemas.

  * * *

  Update (1120ET): This video of Chinese doctors and patients “square dancing” at a “shelter hospital” in Wuhan is going viral on the Chinese Internet.

  Videos of medical staff and #coronavirus patients square dancing together in several “shelter hospitals” in #Wuhan have gone viral on Chinese social media.

  “Square dancing helps to cheer them up and improve their immunity, which is beneficial for their recovery.” pic.twitter.com/Kpqsyqclkj

  — Sixth Tone (@SixthTone) February 12, 2020

  * * *

  Update (1110ET): The WHO is running a live Q&A session at the moment. Check it out below:

  Two linked cases of #coronavirus have been confirmed in South Ribble, Lancashire.

  The two people had recently travelled to Italy and are currently isolating themselves at home. Our Director of Public Health and Wellbeing Dr Sakthi Karunanithi explains more. 1 of 2…. pic.twitter.com/YVM5AEtfrq

  — Lancashire County Council (@LancashireCC) March 4, 2020

  * * *

  Update (1050ET): It appears the tables have turned – or at least that’s what we imagine members of the #resistance will say when they see this headline.

  According to the Guardian, Russia has been targeted by “enemies” spreading fake news about the coronavirus to sow panic and discord across the country, President Vladimir Putin said.

  His remarks came as Russia’s communications regulator said it had shut down access to some social media posts containing falsehoods about the virus outbreak.

  “The Federal Security Service reports that they (the fakes) are mainly being organised from abroad. But unfortunately this always happens to us,” Putin said on Wednesday, in televised remarks at a government meeting.

  “The purpose of such fakes is clear: to sow panic among the population.”

  Reuters reports that a Russian cyber security company, Group-IB, on Monday identified what it said were thousands of fake news posts on messaging services and social networks such as Russia’s VK alleging that thousands of Muscovites have caught the virus.

  In other news, the Irish Times reports that the Chinese ambassador to Ireland He Xiangdong advised the government to make a speedy decision about banning mass gatherings as the number of coronavirus cases climbs (health officials reported the country’s second case last night).

  In other news: Twitter said Wednesday that it will block advertisers from using the coronavirus outbreak to send inappropriate advertisements to its users.

  Twitter has said it will stop any attempt by advertisers to use the coronavirus outbreak to send inappropriate advertisements to its users.

  And more cases have been confirmed in the UK as the two people who traveled to Italy are currently isolating themselves at home.

  Two linked cases of #coronavirus have been confirmed in South Ribble, Lancashire.

  The two people had recently travelled to Italy and are currently isolating themselves at home. Our Director of Public Health and Wellbeing Dr Sakthi Karunanithi explains more. 1 of 2…. pic.twitter.com/YVM5AEtfrq

  — Lancashire County Council (@LancashireCC) March 4, 2020

  To be sure, the latest numbers out of the UK, where the total number of cases has jumped to 85, does not suggest the country is past the stage where the containment approach is no longer valuable, according to a senior microbiology expert.

  * * *

  Update (1040ET): As deaths mount in Iran and Italy, Al Jazeera reminds us that Poland, Morocco, Andorra, Armenia and Argentina have all confirmed their first cases of the virus over the last 24 hours.

  Ecuador has just confirmed three new cases, bringing its total to 10.

  * * *

  (Update 0950ET): A Yeshiva University student who is the son of the Westchester County man infected by the coronavirus, has also been diagnosed with the illness, the school announced Wednesday. “We have unfortunately received news this morning that out student has tested positive for COVID-19. Our thoughts are with him and his family as well as to all those affected,” Yeshiva said in a statement. “We are taking every precaution by canceling all classes on Wilf Campus in Washington Heights. This includes all in-person graduate courses on that campus as wall as the boys’ high school,” it added.

  The student’s father, attorney Lawrence Garbuz, 50, runs a boutique law firm with his wife that also employs one of their four kids as a paralegal, according to information posted online. The seven-lawyer practice, Lewis & Garbuz, is located across the street from Grand Central Terminal.

  In addition to the son. Garbuz’s wife and daughter, as well as a neighbor who drove the man to the hospital, are among the new cases confirmed in the state.

  According to Governor Cuomo, this means that there are now 6 confirmed cases of coronavirus in New York State.

  There are now 6 confirmed cases of #coronavirus in New York State, per information from @NYGovCuomo

  — Zack Fink (@ZackFinkNews) March 4, 2020

  * * *

  (Update 0940ET): PM Netanyahu has told Israelis that while it is not openly spoken of as such, the coronavirus epidemic is a global-scale pandemic and it could “possibly be among the worst diseases in this century.”

  He asked Israelis to avoid handshakes and suggested greeting one another using the Indian greeting of namaste while keeping one’s hand clasped together.

  Additionally, all travelers will be quarantined from these nations: France, Germany, Spain, Austria, Switzerland

  * * *

  (Update 0935ET): France has reported 45 new coronavirus cases, bringing the total to 257.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  * * *

  (Update 0920ET): In addition to general de-socialization across Italy, the new decree urges elderly people to stay indoors if possible. It seems Italy is resorting to China’s strategy to stall the exponential spread of the virus.

  * * *

  (Update 0917ET): UK health authorities have just announced that the number of virus cases soared overnight, jumping by 34 to 85 total cases (16,659 people have been tested)

  * * *

  (Update 0905ET): While we wait to see if Italy will close all schools and universities as the country’s coronavirus pandemic gets worse, Reuters reported that the country is now planning a decree banning public events as well as close cinemas and theaters across the country.

  Meanwhile, AFP reported that there has been a second case of coronavirus found at the EU office in Brussles.

  * * *

  Update (0835ET): The outbreak in Osaka is expanding: Kyodo just reported three more confirmed cases from a concert that also sickened a McDonald’s worker mentioned below. The total from the concert is now 14.

  * * *

  Update (0820ET): The Italian education ministry said Wednesday morning that “no decision has yet been made” regarding whether to close schools, or not. The decision has apparently been delayed for a few hours, the minister added. The headline about the school closures took a little bit of the momentum out of markets earlier, but stock futures in the US have rallied back.

  * * *

  Update (0800ET): Italian newswire ANSA reports that the Italian government will move ahead with plans to close all schools and colleges in the country for two weeks.

  BREAKING: Italy closes all schools and universities nationwide to stop coronavirus

  — Norbert Elekes (@NorbertElekes) March 4, 2020

  Until now, only schools in Italy’s virus-plagued northern region had been closed due to the outbreak, even as the death toll from the virus nears 80. France has also closed some 120 primary and secondary schools near Paris as cases in France have surged, a decision that’s impacting about 35,000 kids.

  Meanwhile, the Global Times can’t help but gloat…

  Some mainstream #US media calls for learning from #China’s experiences in the fight against #coronavirus as the epidemic situation is gradually improving in China. pic.twitter.com/wHWvPvR233

  — Global Times (@globaltimesnews) March 4, 2020

  …Even as school closures in China will enter their 7th week next week.

  #Italy to close all schools and universities around the country until mid March because of #coronavirus outbreak, local news outlet Ansa reports. (#China school closures heading into 7th week next week…)

  — Eunice Yoon (@onlyyoontv) March 4, 2020

  In other news, the Israeli government has quarantined a group of soccer fans who attended a match last week in Tel Aviv after a teenager in the crowd tested positive for the virus. He’s believed to have contracted the virus from the manager of a toy store who recently visited Italy, according to the BBC.

  In other news, after religious authorities in Saudi Arabia banned foreigners from traveling to the holy land last week, the Saudi government said Wednesday that it would temporarily suspend a lesser Muslim pilgrimage called the Umra for both foreigners and citizens, the BBC reports.

  The Umra is an optional pilgrimage that includes some of the rituals of the most important pilgrimage, the Hajj, though they are shortened and there are fewer rituals.

  * * *

  Update (0740ET): German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz has been pushing for Germany to defy its constitutional “debt break” and bolster spending. Now, he’s taking his rhetoric up a notch and defying the WHO to declare the coronavirus outbreak a “global pandemic.”

  • GERMAN FINANCE MINISTER SCHOLZ TELLS LAWMAKER GERMANY WOULD HAVE “ALL THE STRENGTH” TO COUNTER IMPACT OF CORONAVIRUS IF EPIDEMIC PLUNGED WORLD ECONOMY INTO CRISIS – SOURCES
  • GERMANY’S SCHOLZ TELLS LAWMAKERS GOV’T IS PREPARED AND READY TO ACT DECISIVELY TO COUNTER CORONAVIRUS – SOURCES
  • GERMANY’S SCHOLZ TELLS LAWMAKERS ANY FISCAL MEASURES TO COUNTER CORONAVIRUS IMPACT WOULD BE “TIMELY, TARGETED, TEMPORARY” – SOURCES

  The FinMin has encountered resistance from within the ruling coalition, and if he’s going to succeed in delivering the fiscal stimulus that Europe so desperately needs, he’s going to need to outmaneuver his rivals.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  * * *

  Update (0722ET): Japan has confirmed 9 more cases in Osaka.

  JAPAN CONFIRMS NINE NEW CORONAVIRUS CASES IN OSAKA AND FIRST IN MIYAZAKI PREFECTURE – KYODO

  And Nikkei rising.. ridiculous.

  — Cookie Trader (@cookie_trader) March 4, 2020

  * * *

  As we reported last night, Tuesday marked a major shift in the coronavirus outbreak: For the first time, more deaths were reported outside China than inside. And already on Wednesday, we’ve seen some unfortunate firsts: Iraq reported its first death after the virus leaked across the border from Iran.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  The EU’s decision not to close borders and impose travel restrictions has come back to bite it: Just a few minutes ago, the European Union confirmed the first case of the virus at EU offices in Brussels. It appears to be tied to the European Defense Agency.

  First case of #coronavirus in the EU institutions: the European Defence Agency has cancelled all meetings until 13 March after a senior official tested positive for #COVID_19, according to an internal mail seen by EURACTIV.@gerardofortuna reports.https://t.co/T8mHPm0u4A

  — EURACTIV (@EURACTIV) March 4, 2020

  Brussels only confirmed its first case in the city a couple of days ago.

  Last night, China reported 119 additional coronavirus cases and 38 additional deaths for March 3. That’s compared with 125 additional cases and 31 new deaths the previous day. The new cases bring the total number of mainland cases to 80,270 and death toll at 2,871.

  South Korea reported 809 additional coronavirus cases and 4 additional deaths, bringing its total cases to 5,621 and death toll to 32, while Italy’s total cases rose to 2,502 from 2036, and its death toll increased to 79, up from 52 earlier in the day on Tuesday.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Meanwhile, over in Japan, a part-time worker at a McDonald’s in Kyoto has tested positive, prompting the restaurant to close. The cashier attended music events in Osaka on Feb. 15 and Feb. 16, where investigators believe he may have been infected.

  Last night, Japanese officials raised the possibility of delaying the Olympics. NTV reports Wednesday morning in the US that Japan would scale back Olympic Torch relay events.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Unsurprisingly, an a global Ipsos poll highlighted by the Guardian showed that a majority of Italians would accept quarantines of cities and towns, though that number climbed to 74% for the UK and 91% for Vietnam.

  Q. Are you willing to accept quarantines of cities and towns to manage #coronavirus risk?

  Agree:
  Vietnam 91%
  UK 74%
  Italy 60% pic.twitter.com/OBvnYk9IU5

  — Ben Quinn (@BenQuinn75) March 4, 2020

  As we reported yesterday, Ireland has recorded a second case of coronavirus. However, officials are still planning to go ahead with St. Patrick’s Day festivities when the holiday arrives in a couple of weeks.

  While the WHO has embraced alternative greetings, Public Health England, the agency in charge of the UK outbreak, said that while it might recommend people stop shaking hands, “we’re not there yet.

  Over in Iran, the health ministry said the coronavirus had killed 92 people, up from 77 the day before, while the number of infections rose to 2,922, Al Jazeera reports. To be sure, reports last week claimed the true death toll had surpassed 200 – and that was a week ago.

  Elsewhere in Europe, Bloomberg reports that Italy’s government is weighing a closure of all schools nationwide to contain the coronavirus outbreak. A closure could last 15 days and start this coming Monday, or the Monday following. This comes after officials reportedly considered cancelling all sports games in the country for a month.

  Over at the ECB, the central bank has cancelled travel for all members of the Christine Lagarde-led executive board, as well as other employees judged to be non-essential, until 20 April 2020, at which time the central bank will reassess the situation.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 03/04/2020 – 20:50

• "It's Getting 'The Ugly'" – What Can We Really Do About Covid-19?
  “It’s Getting ‘The Ugly'” – What Can We Really Do About Covid-19?

  Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

  Summary

  • Covid-19 has broken out of China and become a key global concern: most countries are now preparing for a serious virus epidemic.

  • All governments are faced with a series of unpalatable options over their next steps – yet all end with serious economic damage.

  • As a counterweight, we will see a reliance on several types of fiscal and monetary policy response: the conventional, the unconventional, and the ‘unconversational’ – steps that would not even have been talked about until very recently.

  • “The Conventional” response is already well underway with the RBA cutting rates 25bp to 0.50% and the Fed making an emergency cut of 50bp to takes Fed Funds to 1.25%: this was the first 50bp cut and the first out-of-meeting move since the Global Financial Crisis.

  • However, conventional policy is arguably of little impact, as initial reactions to the Fed surprise show – and the same is just as true for unconventional policy.

  • This takes us rapidly towards market conversations about the ‘unconversational’.

  It’s getting “The Ugly”

  A few weeks ago we published a special report on Covid-19 which projected four scenarios for the virus’s economic and market impact: “The Bad”, “The Worse”, “The Ugly”, and “The Unthinkable”.

  “The Bad” scenario was based on the assumption that there would be virus containment within a few weeks within China, with limited spread to other countries. This was already seen as nastier than the market was pricing for, with Chinese 2020 GDP growth reduced by -0.5% to -1.0%, and global GDP by -0.2 percentage points. This was our base case at the time.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  

  “The Worse” scenario envisaged an ongoing Chinese lockdown and the virus spreading to parts of ASEAN. This would have a larger regional and global impact. Chinese GDP growth was seen grinding to a halt, with a severe slowdown in ASEAN too, and significant global supply-chain disruptions meaning a global recession closer to the likes of 2008/09.

  “The Ugly” scenario envisaged that the US, UK, and Europe were infected too. Naturally, this implied a deep global recession.

  “The Unthinkable” was a real-life version of a Hollywood movie.

  At time of writing, major virus outbreaks in South Korea, Iran, and Italy, as well official warnings from the rest of Europe, the UK, the US, and Australia, show us that we risk entering into “The Ugly” scenario and that a deep global recession may be inevitable. (See Figure 1.)

  What is to be done?

  As a result, attention is rightly turning to that old Leninist question: what is to be done? Most developed economies have now set up government virus crisis teams (COBRA in the UK, a new unit under Vice-President Pence in the US, for example). The question is, what can they do? The answers are unpalatable. Although the messaging and rhetoric varies in each location, there are logically only three basic options:

  Do nothing and tell people all is well.

  This option was tried at first in most Western countries – as evidenced by the lack of serious virus preparation until recently. However, Iran–where the total death toll is unclear but the virus appears to have taken a terrible toll already–is a graphic illustration that telling people all is well is not an effective strategy. The Iranian economy, already struggling under sanctions, has understandably suffered another huge blow as people panic and stay at home. As we noted in our previous report, both supply and demand have collapsed in tandem.

  Allow business as usual while telling people to prepare

  For now this is still the option being pursued by Western countries, with normal movement still allowed – indeed, encouraged. Yes, there are some restrictions in place–France has banned indoor gatherings of more than 5,000 people–but generally people and businesses are free to operate as usual. The problem is that even so many people are nonetheless reacting with fear, cancelling holidays, stopping travel and having meals out, and/or panic buying and hoarding essentials such as pasta and toilet rolls, as well as hand sanitizer and face masks. In short, the economy is already taking a major virus hit anyway – look at airlines as an indicator.

  Institute China-style lockdowns.

  So far these steps have only been taken in specific virus hotspots in developed economies, for example Northern Italy. However, they are clearly ready to be more widely used if needed. Indeed, on 3 March the UK stated draconian action could be seen in its official worst-case scenario involving 1 in 5 of the population being infected and ill, requiring major cities to be locked down, public transport to be stopped, schools to close, workers to be told to work from home, the army on the streets, and the police told only to deal with serious crimes. Naturally, the impact on the economy of such a lockdown would be dramatic – as has been seen in the collapse in the Chinese manufacturing and services PMIs in February, the first real chance we have had to look at relevant official data since Covid-19 broke out. (See Figure 2.) However, there is broad recognition that the steps China took have played a key role in sharply reducing the number of new virus infections being seen in recent weeks. In other words, lockdowns do seem to work – and without them, this would already be a truly global pandemic.

  The other key thing to note, however, is that whichever of the three options a government takes, the outcome is major damage to the economy.

  Do nothing, and the economy is hit by the virus; act incrementally and a virus outbreak is likely to be larger – and the public to panic anyway, hitting the economy; lockdown the economy and be *guaranteed* a deep downturn.

  Moreover, even if the last option were chosen, such action still needs to be coordinated between countries to be effective – yet effective international coordination can be very difficult to achieve, seeing countries resort to unilateral action instead.

  For example, there is no use locking down one’s own economy, as in China’s case, if arrivals from another country that has not been taking virus precautions, like Iran, are free to enter and spread infection once again. Tellingly, China, the origin of Covid-19, is now putting travel restrictions in place for visitors from some other countries, such as Iran, after vociferously complaining that its own citizens were discriminated against by other states when it was still seeing the heaviest phase of the virus impact.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Slow burn not V-shape?

  One other thing needs to be made clear, but which not many are expressing: at this stage, and regardless of the strategy pursued, there is a real risk that the virus will spread globally. In which case, the best that even quarantine measures can realistically hope to achieve is to spread out the impact of the virus so that not everyone gets sick at once, so reducing the strain on healthcare systems as well as economies. Yet this also means that this cannot be a quickly-resolved “V-shape” issue, but rather a slower burn with longer-lasting economic effects. The British government is now transparently assuming that this will be at least as 12-week cycle, hopefully beginning to be under control properly by June.

  It is hard to square such thoughts with Bank of England Governor Carney’s recent message that in the UK Covid-19 will cause economic “disruption and not destruction”. For one, we have to stress that hysteresis is as important as hysteria: the longer the crisis lingers, either because of government actions or regardless of them, the deeper the economic damage that will be done on many fronts: how will many millions of the self-employed and small businesses owners, mortgage holders and credit-card borrowers survive for three months with little or no income. The impact of this crisis, even if managed well, may last well beyond what cynics would usually assume when dismissing panic-filled newspaper headlines.

  Moreover, three months is an estimate. Even as UK (and US and European) summer eventually arrives, hopefully reducing the virus’s impact, it will be winter in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa, Australia, and New Zealand, all of whom have virus cases already, and the first two of which may not be in a positon to properly monitor or control going forwards. As such, unless economic connectivity between the northern and southern hemispheres is severed, doing even more damage, the risk is that there will be a fresh avenue of potential Covid-19 infection awaiting when summer turns back into autumn again. This is exactly what happened with the Spanish Flu in 1918-19, as we showed in another recent virus special report (“Fear and Trembling”). Slow-burn, not V-shape once again.

  Of course, the nearest-term concern is with China as it tries to get hundreds of millions of workers back to work again without seeing a V-shape in virus infections too. Can this be done, or will it illustrate the damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don’t nature of this crisis?

  So what IS to be done then?

  The above is the key question and has been made all the more timely by the fact that 3 March saw an unprecedented gathering of the G7 and major central banks to discuss Covid-19 and the possible coordinated policy response. Expectations were high given how rare such meetings are: the outcome was pure disappointment, with the brief press release stating:

  “We, G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors, are closely monitoring the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and its impact on markets and economic conditions.

  Given the potential impacts of COVID-19 on global growth, we reaffirm our commitment to use all appropriate policy tools to achieve strong, sustainable growth and safeguard against downside risks. Alongside strengthening efforts to expand health services, G7 finance ministers are ready to take actions, including fiscal measures where appropriate, to aid in the response to the virus and support the economy during this phase. G7 central banks will continue to fulfill their mandates, thus supporting price stability and economic growth while maintaining the resilience of the financial system.

  We welcome that the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and other international financial institutions stand ready to help member countries address the human tragedy and economic challenge posed by COVID-19 through the use of their available instruments to the fullest extent possible.

  G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors stand ready to cooperate further on timely and effective measures.”

  Measure for measures

  So what can the G7 actually do? Arguably, their possible “effective measures” above and beyond direct virus-fighting steps again come down to three broad areas: The Conventional; The Unconventional; and The “Unconversational” – things that were simply unspeakable in official circles until recently. Yet these three options all still sit within the normal axis of fiscal and monetary policy options.

  Frisky Fiscal

  The G7 statement openly mentioned “fiscal measures, where appropriate”. This suggests that there is no broad agreement on the need for fiscal stimulus right now. The US, with its past Trump tax cuts, and the UK, with its recent shift to a “leveling up” infrastructure budget, have already moved decisively towards larger fiscal deficits – but this can actually limit the extent to which further stimulus can be introduced above and beyond the automatic stabilizer effect that will naturally occur as the economy and tax-take decline in tandem. Moreover, in the Eurozone the room for fiscal maneuver is far more constrained by treaty, in Japan’s case by the government’s insistence on trying to reduce the fiscal deficit (given Covid-19, the timing of Japan’s last sales tax hike could not have been worse!), and in Australia’s case the fiscal constraint is also strong, even if it is entirely self-imposed.

  However, there is a more general criticism of fiscal policy: it is slow to take effect, and in the case of the virus is unlikely to be of much short-term use. If consumers are locked away at home, what good does it do to start to build a new railway like High Speed 2 in the UK, for example? In some cases, one can make direct transfers to households or firms, such as the Trump tax cuts – but these would need to be better targeted at lower and middle-income groups and/or SMEs than the tax cuts seen to date in the US. At the same time, if one is bunkered away in fear of a virus, will a few extra dollars in one’s pocket incentivize going out to spend? Unlikely. That said, a liquidity-constrained SME could be hugely grateful for an emergency cash injection, especially if this can be used to pay salaries and prevent a domino effect of unemployment and/or demand destruction.

  Naturally, China is taking the lead fiscally. It has already introduced tax cuts to try to offset the effects of Covid-19, and its semi-official Global Times has stated Beijing may be forced to embark on a major stimulus package larger than the CNY4 trillion (USD574bn) infrastructure stimulus package seen back in the 2008 financial crisis–“despite the side effects”–should the economic damage from Covid-19 prove too great. Understand that back in 2008 China’s GDP was USD4.7 trillion vs. USD14.3 trillion today, so if they imply a stimulus package larger as a percentage of GDP, which is not clear, then we are potentially talking about USD2.0 trillion stimulus package.

  For China, that kind of thinking, incredibly, is still taken as within the conventional. In developed economies, it would be totally unconventional, as it implies a war-time level of fiscal deficit – but that does not mean that the political winds will not blow in that direction too; healthcare may take precedence over bombs, or over infrastructure, but the economic impact of massive deficit spending would be just as positive for developed economies.

  Naturally, when talking of large-scale fiscal packages when public debt and/or fiscal deficits are already very high, we go beyond what was once the conventional and even the unconventional; we enter the realm of the ‘unconversational’, and of fiscal-monetary policy cooperation, or Modern Monetary Theory. We have discussed this several times in recent years (see here for example): might Covid-19 prove the political launch-pad for it outside China?

  Mainly Monetary

  Mainly Monetary
  Central bank governors of course “stand ready”, a message that the Fed, ECB, BOE, and the PBOC, have already made clear to the public and markets. Conventionally, this first means rate cuts, even allowing for the very low level of rates to start with. These are already arriving:

  The PBOC got in first, reducing their new benchmark 1-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 10bp to 4.05%, while the fall in 3-month SHIBOR has been even steeper;

  Other Asian central banks have been cutting for some time already, with Malaysia cutting 25bp on 3 March, for example. That said, the Bank of Korea (BOK) opted not to cut 25bp as expected last week, even though Korea has been very badly hit by Covid-19, as it did not see lower rates as an effective instrument to fight a virus (a point we shall return to);

  The RBA were developed market trend-setters in cutting their overnight cash rate 25bp at their March meeting, taking the OCR to a new record low of just 0.50% – overtly over concerns about the supposedly short-term impact of Covid-19 on the services sector; and

  this was then eclipsed by the Fed cutting rates 50bp at an inter-meeting move for the first time since the Global Financial Crisis (See Figure 3.)

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  With the Fed action in particular, the rates flood gates have now opened even if rates are already close to zero, or below: the BOC, BOE and BOJ, to say nothing of other smaller global central banks, are certain to follow rapidly. Yet as with tax cuts, what use is a lower cost of borrowing if there is no supply and no demand? If you afraid to go and eat in a restaurant for fear of infection and possible illness or even death, then a slightly cheaper mortgage-loan rate will not really change your mind. This is the same fundamental problem that we already see with ultra-low rates and business investment: it’s ultra-cheap to borrow, but why risk it when there is no demand? Tellingly, the immediate market reaction to the Fed’s “bazooka” 50bp cut was to see both equities and yields drop sharply – and at both ends of the curve, with 10-year yields now decisively lower than the psychological and unprecedented 1% level.

  So what then? At this point, the conventional must become unconventional. We already know what this “emergency” policy toolkit looks like: central bank asset purchases (i.e., QE) and asset swaps (reverse repos). Both of these are already in large-scale use, and both of them are likely to see even greater escalation in scale and geographical breadth: Australia will join the QE club, for example.

  Of course, as we have argued repeatedly in various reports for years, even in a ‘healthy’–if structurally distorted–economy, QE has failed to generate sustainable, equitable growth or inflation. In an economy about to suffer from Covid-19, it will be even less effective. Reverse repo is also just papering over cracks in asset quality rather than addressing fundamentals.

  Yet if new QE goes into government bond purchases to fund productive fiscal spending that boosts the economy, so much the better; however, that takes us from the unconventional to the ‘unconversational’.

  Purely political

  Apart from the fiscal and the monetary, one needs to recall that all governments have a third channel for policy measures that can also be considered very “unconversational” – the Purely Political. We tend to think of real power sitting with central banks and little with our elected officials: this overlooks the fact that the elected officials gave their power away – and can take it back again.

  The struggle against Covid-19 is, quite naturally, already being portrayed as a ‘battle’ or a ‘war’, and during wars politics always takes precedence over business (and markets) as usual. If that kind of ‘kitchen sink’ strategy was available for GFC 2008-09, why should it not be with Covid-19?

  We have already seen the state impose lockdowns in various regions of various countries, and/or international travel bans totally at odd with traditional freedom of movement: more seem very likely.

  In France the government has requisitioned protective masks, and the US is contemplating using Korean-war era legislation to compel the production of anti-virus equipment: again, this is completely normal in present circumstances – and completely opposite to what the Western political-economy trend has been for decades. If the virus outbreak gets worse, one could easily imagine the government acting even more significantly via price controls or rationing of key goods, or by compelling companies to act in certain ways. Temporary nationalizations may even be required. These steps would no doubt be widely supported by the public if it helps prevent profiteering and better health outcomes.

  Financially, given the huge blow that airlines and other service-sector firms are likely to suffer, we are also certain to see state aid and/or bailouts to key firms, even if this is technically illegal in some countries currently. We might we also face some temporary quasi-nationalisations once again, as during 2008-09.

  Meanwhile, companies will be told to keep paying workers regardless of their cash-flow. In turn, banks will be leaned on to maintain credit lines to businesses and households, or to even extend debt facilities despite it running contrary to usual risk metrics. China is already leading the way here. Indeed, as in China we could also see a possible suspension of mark-to-market pricing for some financial assets or, copying their experience of 2015, a ban on short selling of stocks to try to ensure that this crisis does not become a full-blown financial calamity. It cannot be ruled out.

  In short, almost every key part of the economy could, in the worst case, be subject to some form of state interference and prevention of price discovery. That is exactly what happens during wars – which as Von Clausewitz infamously quipped, are an extension of politics by other means.

  Again this would likely be popular with much of the public, no doubt, and perhaps even with markets if it saves them from any major downside risks. Yet some will also quote pithy US journalist H L Mencken: “The urge to save humanity is almost always only a false-face for the urge to rule it.” Extricating the state from markets after the virus has passed may prove difficult, especially when the pre-virus economy already had so many pressing socio-economic imbalances to deal with.

  But that’s an “unconversation” for another day. Let’s get through Covid-19 safely first.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 03/04/2020 – 20:45

• Apple Issues Warning Over iPhone Replacement Shortage
  Apple Issues Warning Over iPhone Replacement Shortage

  Apple has warned their retail employees that there may be a shortage of replacement iPhones, in yet another example of a supply chain affected by the coronavirus.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  According to Bloomberg, the company recently told tech support staff that heavily damaged devices might not be able to be replaced for as long as two to four weeks, Apple Store employees have said.

  The workers, known as Geniuses, were advised in a memo that they can offer to mail replacement iPhones to customers and provide loaner devices to ease delays.

  Some Apple stores have also noticed a shortage of individual parts, according to the employees, who asked not to be identified discussing private information. An Apple spokesman did not respond to requests for comment. –Bloomberg

  The warning applies to iPhone owners who bring in devices that are too damaged to repair in-store (beyond repair) – which are typically resolved by replacing the entire phone.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Apple’s supply chain woes extend beyond just iPhones, as the company has also experienced shortages of key components for the iPad Pro. Meanwhile, the supply of iPhone 11 models has began to tighten a bit internationally.

  Apple has prohibited employees from traveling to China, South Korea and Italy, and has asked that sick employees take leave. It has also encouraged telecommuting whenever possible.

  Despite the ongoing virus threat, the company has been re-opening stores in China after temporarily closing all 42 locations. As of Wedensday, 38 locations were open again according to their retail website.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 03/04/2020 – 20:25

• DNC Scrambles To Change Debate Threshold After Gabbard Qualifies
  DNC Scrambles To Change Debate Threshold After Gabbard Qualifies

  Authored by Caitlin Johnstone via Medium.com,

  On a CNN panel on Monday, host John King spoke with Politico reporter Alex Thompson about the possibility of Democratic presidential candidate Tulsi Gabbard qualifying on Super Tuesday for the party’s primary debate in Phoenix later this month.

  “I will note this, she’s from Hawaii,” King said of Gabbard.

  “She’s a congresswoman from Hawaii; American Samoa votes on Super Tuesday. The rules as they now stand, if you get a delegate, you’re back in the debates. As of now. Correct?”

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  “Yeah, they haven’t, I mean, that’s been the rule for every single debate,” Thompson replied.

  “And the DNC has not released their official guidance for the March 15 debate in Phoenix, but it would be very obvious that they are trying to cancel Tulsi, who they’re scared of a third party run, if they then change the rules to prevent her to rejoin the debate stage.”

  And indeed, as the smoke clears from the Super Tuesday frenzy, this is precisely what appears to have transpired.

  Watch it til the end.https://t.co/SMU5NhCDUo

  — Caitlin Johnstone ⏳ (@caitoz) March 4, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “The Gabbard campaign said it was informed that it would net two delegates from the caucuses in American Samoa, which will allocate a total of six pledged delegates,” The Hill reports today. “However, a report from CNN said that the candidate will receive only one delegate from the territory on Tuesday evening.”

  “Tulsi Gabbard may have just qualified for the next Democratic debate thanks to American Samoa,” reads a fresh Business Insider headline. “Under the most recent rules, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii may have qualified for the next televised debate by snagging a delegate in American Samoa’s primary.”

  “If Tulsi Gabbard gets a delegate out of American Samoa, as it appears she has done, she will likely qualify for the next Democratic debate,” tweeted Washington Post’s Dave Weigel. “We don’t have new debate rules yet, but party has been inviting any candidate who gets a delegate.”

  Rank-and-file supporters of the Hawaii congresswoman enjoyed a brief celebration on social media, before having their hopes dashed minutes later by an announcement from the DNC’s Communications Director Xochitl Hinojosa that “the threshold will go up”.

  “We have two more debates — of course the threshold will go up,” tweeted Hinojosa literally minutes after Gabbard was awarded the delegate. “By the time we have the March debate, almost 2,000 delegates will be allocated. The threshold will reflect where we are in the race, as it always has.”

  We have two more debates– of course the threshold will go up. By the time we have the March debate, almost 2,000 delegates will be allocated. The threshold will reflect where we are in the race, as it always has.

  — Xochitl Hinojosa (@XochitlHinojosa) March 4, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “DNC wastes no time in announcing they will rig the next debates to exclude Tulsi,” journalist Michael Tracey tweeted in response.

  This outcome surprised nobody, least of all Gabbard supporters. The blackout on the Tulsi 2020 campaign has reached such extreme heights this year that you now routinely see pundits saying things like there are no more people of color in the race, or that Elizabeth Warren is the only woman remaining in the primary. They’re not just ignoring her, they’re actually erasing her. They’re weaving a whole alternative reality out of narrative in which she is literally, officially, no longer in the race.

  After Gabbard announced her presidential candidacy in January of last year I wrote an article explaining that I was excited about her campaign because she would severely disrupt establishment narratives, and, for the remainder of 2019, that’s exactly what she did. She spoke unauthorized truths about Syria, Afghanistan and Saudi Arabia, she drew attention to the plight of Julian Assange and Edward Snowden and said she’d drop all charges against both men if elected, she destroyed the hawkish, jingoistic positions of fellow candidates on the debate stage and arguably single-handedly destroyed Kamala Harris’ run.

  The narrative managers had their hands full with her. The Russia smears were relentless, the fact that she met with Syrian president Bashar al-Assad was brought up at every possible opportunity in every debate and interview, and she was scoffed at and derided at every turn.

  Now, in 2020, none of that is happening. There’s a near-total media blackout on the Gabbard campaign, such that I now routinely encounter rank-and-file liberals on social media who tell me they honestly had no idea she’s still running. She’s been completely redacted out of the narrative matrix.

  All candidates of color are out. An openly gay married candidate is out. 2 women left. The rest? 70+ old white men fighting for the future of America in 2020. Because of course.

  — Wajahat Ali (@WajahatAli) March 1, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  So it’s unsurprising that the DNC felt comfortable striding forward and openly announcing a change in the debate threshold literally the very moment Gabbard crossed it. These people understand narrative control, and they know full well that they have secured enough of it on the Tulsi Problem that they’ll be able to brazenly rig her right off the stage without suffering any meaningful consequences.

  The establishment narrative warfare against Gabbard’s campaign dwarfs anything we’ve seen against Sanders, and the loathing and dismissal they’ve been able to generate have severely hamstrung her run. It turns out that a presidential candidate can get away with talking about economic justice and plutocracy when it comes to domestic policy, and some light dissent on matters of foreign policy will be tolerated, but aggressively attacking the heart of the actual bipartisan foreign policy consensus will get you shut down, smeared and shunned like nothing else. This is partly because US presidents have a lot more authority over foreign affairs than domestic, and it’s also because endless war is the glue which holds the empire together.

  And now they’re working to install a corrupt, right-wing warmongering dementia patient as the party’s nominee. And from the looks of the numbers I’ve seen from Super Tuesday so far, it looks entirely likely that those manipulations will prove successful.

  All this means is that the machine is exposing its mechanics to the view of the mainstream public. Both the Gabbard campaign and the Sanders campaign have been useful primarily in this way; not because the establishment would ever let them actually become president, but because they force the unelected manipulators who really run things in the most powerful government on earth to show the public their box of dirty tricks.

  *  *  *

  Thanks for reading! The best way to get around the internet censors and make sure you see the stuff I publish is to subscribe to the mailing list for my website, which will get you an email notification for everything I publish. My work is entirely reader-supported, so if you enjoyed this piece please consider sharing it around, liking me on Facebook, following my antics on Twitter, checking out my podcast on either Youtube, soundcloud, Apple podcasts or Spotify, following me on Steemit, throwing some money into my hat on Patreon or Paypal, purchasing some of my sweet merchandise, buying my books Rogue Nation: Psychonautical Adventures With Caitlin Johnstone and Woke: A Field Guide for Utopia Preppers. For more info on who I am, where I stand, and what I’m trying to do with this platform, click here. Everyone, racist platforms excluded, has my permission to republish, use or translate any part of this work (or anything else I’ve written) in any way they like free of charge.

  Bitcoin donations:1Ac7PCQXoQoLA9Sh8fhAgiU3PHA2EX5Zm2

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 03/04/2020 – 20:05

• Jet Fuel Prices Dive Amid Stalling Aviation Industry; Global Tourism Bust Imminent
  Jet Fuel Prices Dive Amid Stalling Aviation Industry; Global Tourism Bust Imminent

  Airlines have canceled more than 200,000 flights as Covid-19 is nearing pandemic status.

  More than 92,300 people have been infected by the virus, which has killed about 3,100 people. Many of the cases are in China, but recent cases ex-China have been surging, especially in South Korea, Iran, Italy, Japan, and in many other countries across Europe.  

  Airlines have spent the last month canceling flights to China – American Airlines, United Airlines, and Delta Air Lines have suspended service to mainland China and Hong Kong. Reuters provides a full list of canceled flights across the world.

  Flights to and from China crashed 80% YoY in February, according to Cirium travel industry data. Global air travel has plunged for the first time since the 2008/09 financial crisis, mostly in the Asia-Pacific region, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) recently said.  

  Plunging air traffic across the world has resulted in a steep decline in jet fuel. Singapore jet fuel prices have fallen 30% since the start of 2020 and contributed to a 50% collapse in jet fuel crack spreads, now at 2009 lows, Refinitiv data shows.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  “The coronavirus outbreak has hampered jet fuel demand in Asia and the impact is expected to linger for a few more months,” said Sri Paravaikkarasu, director for Asia oil at consultancy FGE.

  “It’s indeed an unprecedented fall since the global financial crisis… Jet fuel cracks have fallen to about $8 per barrel and we think it will stabilize around these levels in the next few months before seeing a recovery in the third quarter,” Paravaikkarasu said. 

  Jet fuel demand will likely remain in a slump for the next several quarters because virus fears will drive a plunge in tourism around the world, eliminate the need for air travel demand as long as the virus spreads. This could suggest the airline industry is headed for turbulence.

  “We do see the virus eroding jet fuel demand to some extent in the Western Hemisphere. If the demand erosion develops faster, East-West flows will come under pressure,” Paravaikkarasu said.

  Sukrit Vijayakar, director of Indian energy consultancy Trifecta, said people tend to plan their vacations far in advance. This could mean air travel remains depressed for the first half of the year. 

  The air travel slump suggests immense pain is headed for the global travel and tourism industry, employs roughly 320 million jobs across the world; Restaurants, travel agencies, hotels, amusement parks, casinos, and shopping malls, could be the most heavily impacted businesses to experience job losses if the virus crisis persists.  

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 03/04/2020 – 19:45

• Globalization And Our Precarious Medical Supply Chains
  Globalization And Our Precarious Medical Supply Chains

  Authored by F. William Engdahl via New Eastern Outlook,

  The grave risks and dangers in the process of worldwide out-sourcing and so-called globalization of the past 30 years or so are becoming starkly clear as the ongoing health emergency across China threatens vital world supply chains from China to the rest of the world. While much attention is focused on the risks to smartphone components or auto manufacture via supplies of key parts from China or to the breakdown of oil deliveries in the last weeks, there is a danger that will soon become alarmingly clear in terms of global health care system.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  If the forced shutdown of China manufacture continues for many weeks longer, the world, could begin to experience shortages or lack of vital medicines and medical supplies. The reason is that over the past two decades much of the production of medicines and medical supplies such as surgical masks have been outsourced to China or simply made in China by Chinese companies at far cheaper prices, forcing Western companies out of business.

  Sole source China

  According to research and US Congressional hearings, something like 80% of present medicines consumed in the United States are produced in China. This includes Chinese companies and foreign drug companies that have outsourced their drug manufacture in joint ventures with Chinese partners. According to Rosemary Gibson of the Hastings Center bioethics research institute, who authored a book in 2018 on the theme, the dependency is more than alarming.

  Gibson cites medical newsletters giving the estimate that today some 80% of all pharmaceutical active ingredients in the USA are made in China.

  “It’s not just the ingredients. It’s also the chemical precursors, the chemical building blocks used to make the active ingredients. We are dependent on China for the chemical building blocks to make a whole category of antibiotics… known as cephalosporins. They are used in the United States thousands of times every day for people with very serious infections.”

  The made in China drugs today include most antibiotics, birth control pills, blood pressure medicines such as valsartan, blood thinners such as heparin, and various cancer drugs. It includes such common medicines as penicillin, ascorbic acid (Vitamin C), and aspirin. The list also includes medications to treat HIV, Alzheimer’s disease, bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, cancer, depression, epilepsy, among others. A recent Department of Commerce study found that 97 percent of all antibiotics in the United States came from China.

  Few of these drugs are labeled “made in China” as drug companies in the USA are not required to reveal their sourcing. Rosemary Gibson states that the dependency on China for medicines and other health products is so great that, “…if China shut the door tomorrow, within a couple of months, hospitals in the United States would cease to function.” That may not be so far off.

  At the time the outsourcing of US and European drug manufacture to China began no one could imagine the present health catastrophe growing out of Wuhan in a matter of days. The massive China quarantine since late January has shut some 75-80% of all Chinese factories and created an unprecedented domestic China demand for every kind of medical product since the WHO declaration of medical emergency around the coronavirus or COVID-19 events at the end of January. It is unclear how badly deliveries of vital pharmaceuticals including essential antibiotics from China to the USA or Europe or other countries will be affected though anecdotal reports of hospitals beginning to experience delivery problems are surfacing. Even the idea to turn to India, another major global pharmaceutical supplier, only finds that most Indian manufacturers are dependent on China for their active drug ingredients.

  Clinton and Outsourcing

  The emergence of China in recent years as the global giant in terms of pharmaceutical drugs and products is embedded in the Made in China-2025 national plan as one of the ten priority areas for China to gain world leadership. It has not been simply a random chance development. This in turn, as the present COVID-19 crisis makes starkly clear, is a huge vulnerability for the rest of the world.

  How did such a one-sided situation develop? We have to go back to the role of the Clinton Presidency in what was then dubbed globalization, the Davos model of outsourcing any and everything from advanced industrial countries like the USA or Germany to especially China after 2000.

  In May 2000 in one of the most far-reaching actions of his Presidency, Bill Clinton, with the strong backing of US multinational companies, succeeded, over the strong objections and warnings of many trade unions, to get Congressional passage of a permanent “most-favored nation” trade status for China and US support for China entry into the World Trade Organization. That gave the green light to corporate America for a flood of overseas investment in cheaper China manufacture known as “out-sourcing.” Major US drug makers were among them. Within two years of the passage of the US free trade agreement with China the US shut its last penicillin fermentation plant in New York State as a result of severe Chinese low-price competition.

  In 2008, the Chinese government designated pharmaceutical production as a “high-value-added industry” and bolstered the industry through subsidies and export tax rebates to encourage pharmaceutical companies to export their products. By 2019 China had become by far the world’s largest source for active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs).

  The Achilles Heel of this globalization and sole dependency for vital medicines on one country now becomes alarmingly clear as the future of China as a reliable supplier of needed drugs and other medical supplies has suddenly become a matter of grave concern to the entire world.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 03/04/2020 – 19:25

• Scientists Discover More Aggressive Strain Of Coronavirus Responsible For 70% Of Current Infections
  Scientists Discover More Aggressive Strain Of Coronavirus Responsible For 70% Of Current Infections

  Chinese scientists studying the new coronavirus have found two new primary strains of the disease – one of which appears to be far more aggressive.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  The researchers, from Peking University’s School of Life Sciences, discovered a milder “S-type” strain, and an “L-type” which is highly infectious and currently accounts for around 70% of cases, according to The Telegraph. The researchers cautioned that their preliminary findings looked at a limited number of cases (103), and that follow-up studies with larger data sets are needed to better understand the virus’s evolution.

  A genetic analysis of the coronavirus found in a man who tested positive in the United States on January 21 also showed that it’s possible to be infected with both strains.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  

  Coronavirus, which was first detected in December 2018 in Wuhan, China, has infected at least 94,000 people – officially, and killed more than 3,200 as of this writing.

  And while there are now two major strains identified, scientist Trevor Bedford of Nextstrain has been tracking 161 strains of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) in patients across the globe.

  Bedford writes in a March 2 blog post that “The novel coronavirus which is responsible for the emerging COVID-19 pandemic mutates at an average of about two mutations per month.“

  Visualize the virus radiating out from China, mutating as it spreads.

  Right: map with different strains color-coded
  Left: phylogenetic tree, showing how individual strains mutate and diverge

  Very impressive work by @trvrb and the group at Nextstrain. https://t.co/p3wkhvtDPL pic.twitter.com/BuoxBaW81A

  — Balaji S. Srinivasan (@balajis) February 28, 2020

  Here is his latest situation report, and thread on the virus which provides a detailed analysis of what mutations have been found, and where (click the tweet to jump into the thread):

  Thus, I believe, similar to the case in Washington State (https://t.co/8wWxtiotE3), we had a situation in which a cluster was identified via intensive screening of travelers, but containment failed shortly thereafter and a sustained transmission chain was initiated. 6/7

  — Trevor Bedford (@trvrb) March 4, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jshttps://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 03/04/2020 – 19:05

• Can The Fed Save Us From Climate Change?
  Can The Fed Save Us From Climate Change?

  Authored by Ron Paul via The Ron Paul Institute for Peace & prosperity,

  The 1978 Humphrey-Hawkins Act requires the Federal Reserve to “promote” stable prices and full employment. Of course, the Fed’s steady erosion of the dollar’s purchasing power has made prices anything but stable, while the boom-and-bust cycle created by the Fed ensures that periods of low unemployment will not last for long. Despite the difficulties the Fed faces fulfilling its “dual mandate,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently announced a new Fed mandate: to protect the financial system from being destabilized by climate change.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Powell appears to have bought into the propaganda that “the science is settled” regarding the existence, causes, and effects of climate change. But the statement “the science is settled” is itself unscientific. Science is rarely settled as today’s new discoveries disprove yesterday’s consensus. In the case of climate change, many scientists dispute the claim that absent massive expansion of government power a climate apocalypse will soon be at hand.

  So far, the Fed’s actions regarding climate change include holding a conference and Chairman Powell indicating the Fed is likely to join the Network for Greening the Financial System. This network is composed in part of central banks from around the world that are attempting to work together to assess the risks of, and plan possible responses to, climate change.

  While Powell has not given details regarding other actions the Fed might take to protect the financial system from climate change, there are a number of actions that the Fed could take.

  For starters, Powell could signal that the Fed would be willing to increase its purchase of government debt if Congress passes Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s Green New Deal. The Fed, since its creation, has been monetizing federal debt, and thus enabling the growth of the welfare-warfare state.

  The Fed could implement “Green Quantitative Easing” by purchasing bonds of green energy and other companies whose products fit the environmentalist agenda.

  The Fed could also use its monetary and regulatory authority to “encourage” financial institutions to support “environmentally-friendly” businesses.

  Whatever policies the Fed adopts to protect the financial system from climate change, the result will be further erosion of the dollar’s purchasing power, increased government control over the economy, lower economic growth, increased crony capitalism, and a reduction in liberty and prosperity.

  Ironically, the Fed’s plans to address climate change will harm the environment. History shows that the most effective way to protect the environment is via a system of private property rights and free markets. Private property owners are better stewards of the environment than are government bureaucrats because private property owners have greater incentives to maintain the value of their property. This is why the greatest pollution in history was in the communist countries of the 20th century.

  The Fed’s failure to provide any details on how it will carry out its self-imposed climate change mandate is another reason why Congress must rein in the secretive, rogue central bank. A step in restoring a monetary policy that truly promotes prosperity is to pass the Audit the Fed bill so Congress and the people can at last learn the full truth about the Federal Reserve.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 03/04/2020 – 18:45

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• The Myth Of Moderate Nuclear War
  The Myth Of Moderate Nuclear War

  Authored by Brian Cloughley via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

  There are many influential supporters of nuclear war, and some of these contend that the use of ‘low-yield’ and/or short-range weapons is practicable without the possibility of escalation to all-out Armageddon.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  In a way their argument is comparable to that of the band of starry-eyed optimists who thought, apparently seriously, that there could be such a beast as a ‘moderate rebel’.

  In October 2013 the Washington Post reported that “The CIA is expanding a clandestine effort to train opposition fighters in Syria amid concern that moderate, US-backed militias are rapidly losing ground in the country’s civil war,” and the US Congress gave approval to then President Barack Obama’s plan for training and arming moderate Syrian rebels to fight against Islamic State extremists. The belief that there could be any grouping of insurgents that could be described as “moderate rebels” is bizarre and it would be fascinating to know how Washington’s planners classify such people. It obviously didn’t dawn on them that any person who uses weapons illegally in a rebellion could not be defined as being moderate. And how moderate is moderate? Perhaps a moderate rebel could be equipped with US weapons that kill only extremists? Or are they allowed to kill only five children a month? The entire notion was absurd, and predictably the scheme collapsed, after expenditure of vast amounts of US taxpayers’ money.

  And even vaster amounts of money are being spent on developing and producing what might be classed as moderate nuclear weapons, in that they don’t have the zillion-bang punch of most of its existing 4,000 plus warheads. It is apparently widely believed in Washington that if a nuclear weapon is (comparatively) small, then it’s less dangerous than a big nuclear weapon.

  In January 2019 the Guardian reported that “the Trump administration has argued the development of a low-yield weapon would make nuclear war less likely, by giving the US a more flexible deterrent. It would counter any enemy (particularly Russian) perception that the US would balk at using its own fearsome arsenal in response to a limited nuclear attack because its missiles were all in the hundreds of kilotons range and ‘too big to use’, because they would cause untold civilian casualties.”

  In fact, the nuclear war envisaged in that scenario would be a global catastrophe — as would all nuclear wars, because there’s no way, no means whatever, of limiting escalation. Once a nuclear weapon has exploded and killed people, the nuclear-armed nation to which these people belonged is going to take massive action. There is no alternative, because no government is just going to sit there and try to start talking with an enemy that has taken the ultimate leap in warfare.

  It is widely imagined — by many nuclear planners in the sub-continent, for example — that use of a tactical, a battlefield-deployed, nuclear weapon will in some fashion persuade the opponent (India or Pakistan) that there is no need to employ higher-capability weapons, or, in other words, longer range missiles delivering massive warheads. These people think that the other side will evaluate the situation calmly and dispassionately and come to the conclusion that at most it should itself reply with a similar weapon. But such a scenario supposes that there is good intelligence about the effects of the weapon that has exploded, most probably within the opponent’s sovereign territory. This is verging on the impossible.

  War is confusing in the extreme, and tactical planning can be extremely complex. But there is no precedent for nuclear war, and nobody — nobody — knows for certain what reactions will be to such a situation in or near any nation. The US 2018 Nuclear Posture Review stated that low-yield weapons “help ensure that potential adversaries perceive no possible advantage in limited nuclear escalation, making nuclear employment less likely”. But do the possible opponents of the United States agree with that? How could they do so?

  The reaction by any nuclear-armed state to what is confirmed as a nuclear attack will have to be swift. It cannot be guaranteed, for example, that the first attack will not represent a series. It will, by definition, be decisive, because the world will then be a tiny step from doomsday. The US nuclear review is optimistic that “flexibility” will by some means limit a nuclear exchange, or even persuade the nuked-nation that there should be no riposte, which is an intriguing hypothesis.

  As pointed out by Lawfare, “the review calls for modification to ‘a small number of existing submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) warheads’ to provide a low-yield option.

  It also calls for further exploration of low-yield options, arguing that expanding these options will ‘help ensure that potential adversaries perceive no possible advantage in limited nuclear escalation, making nuclear employment less likely.’ This is intended to address the argument that adversaries might think the United States, out of concern for collateral damage, would hesitate to employ a high-yield nuclear weapon in response to a ‘lower level’ conflict, in which an adversary used a low-yield nuclear device. The review argues that expanding low-yield options is ‘important for the preservation of credible deterrence,’ especially when it comes to smaller-scale regional conflicts.”

  “Credible deterrence” is a favourite catch-phrase of the believers in limited nuclear war, but its credibility is suspect. Former US defence secretary William Perry said last year that he wasn’t so much worried about the vast number of warheads in the world as he was by open proposals that these weapons are “usable”. It’s right back to the Cold War and he emphasises that “The belief that there might be tactical advantage using nuclear weapons – which I haven’t heard being openly discussed in the United States or in Russia for a good many years – is happening now in those countries which I think is extremely distressing.” But the perturbing thing is that while it is certainly being discussed in Moscow, it’s verging on doctrine in Washington.

  In late February US Defence Secretary Esper was reported as having taken part in a “classified military drill in which Russia and the United States traded nuclear strikes.” The Pentagon stated that “The scenario included a European contingency where you’re conducting a war with Russia and Russia decides to use a low-yield, limited nuclear weapon against a site on NATO territory.” The US response was to fire back with what was called a “limited response.”

  First of all, the notion that Russia would take the first step to nuclear war is completely baseless, and there is no evidence that this could ever be contemplated. But ever if it were to be so, it cannot be imagined for an instant that Washington would indulge in moderate nuclear warfare in riposte.

  These self-justifying wargames are dangerous. And they bring Armageddon ever closer.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 03/04/2020 – 00:05

• China's Rare Earth Monopoly Is Diminishing
  China’s Rare Earth Monopoly Is Diminishing

  Some while ago, rare earth metals important in the production of microchips, electronics and electric motors were almost exclusively sourced in China. However, as Statista’s Katharina Buchholz notes, in recent years, several nations have picked up production again while new players entered the market, diversifying it at least to some degree.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  China was still responsible for almost two thirds of global production in 2019, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. But as many countries are wary of depending on China, especially when it comes to technology products, countries with rare earth deposits are likely to exploit them further. The U.S., however, is still shipping its rare earths to China for processing, but a first processing plant on American soil is in the planning stages with funding help from the U.S. army.

  China also has the largest know deposits of rare earths, but Brazil, Vietnam and Russia also have a lot of (largely) untapped potential in the sector. The United States and Australia ramped up production of rare earths after 2010 and most recently, Myanmar has been mining considerable amount. As seen in the chart above, the U.S. had in the past mined and produced rare earths for military uses and re-entered the market as rare earths were getting more important as a part of the implementation of crucial technologies.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 03/03/2020 – 23:45

• What Is An SDR And Will It Be The Next World Reserve Currency?
  What Is An SDR And Will It Be The Next World Reserve Currency?

  Submitted by Jan Nieuwenhuijs for Voima Insight.

  There’s no way IMF’s Special Drawing Right, a poorly designed synthetic reserve asset, will replace the U.S. dollar as the world reserve currency.

  After several years of monetary madness—artificially lowering interest rates to the extent all asset prices are distorted—the world is slowly waking up to the fact that printing money by central banks is a one-way street. Once central banks enter this trajectory (and they have), they can’t reverse. Markets have become addicted to cheap money, and central banks feel compelled to print more when the economy, or stock market, weakens. The Federal Reserve, the issuer of the U.S. dollar, is trapped too. Possibly, a paradigm shift in the international monetary system will transpire during the coming economic downturn, and the dollar will lose its status as the world reserve currency.

  Some analysts proclaim the next world reserve currency is standing ready to replace the dollar. This would be the Special Drawing Right (SDR), issued by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). According to my analysis, though, the SDR isn’t capable of being the world reserve currency. It will never be much more than a unit of account.

  If you ask a random financial expert what an SDR is, he or she is likely to say, “It’s a currency issued by the IMF, comprising a basket of the world’s most important currencies.” Based on this definition, some analyst forecast the SDR will replace the dollar. But, from examining the anatomy of the SDR, it appears it’s not a currency and there is no free market to exchange them. Which is problematic.

  Introduction

  The SDR is a “supplementary international reserve asset” that was created by the International Monetary Fund in 1969. At first, it was defined as 0.888671 grams of gold. By denominating it in a fixed weight of gold, some thought SDRs were backed by gold. Alas, SDRs were created out of thin air and then given a gold exchange rate, but they could not be redeemed for gold (page 212).

  In 1974, after the collapse of Bretton Woods, the SDR’s value was redefined based on a basket of currencies. But, again, the SDR was not backed by these currencies. Rather, the SDR’s valuation was, and is, based on the weights given to the currencies in the basket.

  On the IMF website, we can read an illuminating definition of the SDR:

  The SDR is neither a currency nor a claim on the IMF. Rather, it is a potential claim on the freely usable currencies of IMF members.

  The SDR is not a currency, because it can’t be used by individuals; it’s not a medium of exchange. The word “potential” in the definition of the SDR is crucial. It reveals that any monetary authority holding SDRs, might be able to convert them into “freely usable currencies of IMF members”, or it might not. How come? In the IMF Financial Operations 2018 we can read:

  there is no market for the SDR itself in which excess supply or demand pressure can be eliminated by adjustments in the price, or value, of the SDR.

  The SDR is a “potential claim” on freely usable currencies, because there is no market for the SDR, and it’s not a liability of the IMF. The result is that possibly SDRs can be exchanged for actual currencies (below is explained how), but there is no guarantee.

  How the SDR can function as the backbone of the international monetary system (IMS) if there is not a (highly liquid) market for it? The answer is, it can’t.

  From this short introduction, we see that the SDR is essentially a unit of account. In the remainder of this article, we will delve into the anatomy of the SDR, how it’s traded and the likelihood of replacing the U.S. dollar.

  What Is an SDR?

  The SDR is a supplementary international reserve asset. SDRs can’t be held by private entities or individuals, but only by IMF member countries, and, currently, fifteen organizations approved by the IMF as “prescribed holders” (page 91). Let’s start with a brief introduction of the IMF’s governing structure, as a backdrop to understand how SDRs are created and used. We’ll start with the IMF’s General Department.

  

  Courtesy IMF Financial Operations 2018.

  The IMF’s resources are mainly held in its General Resources Account, which is managed by the General Department. Each IMF member country is required to transfer financial resources to the IMF based on its “quota”, set according to a member’s relative economic position in the world economy. The General Resources Account is a pool of currencies and reserve assets, mostly built from members’ paid capital subscriptions derived from quotas (page 13).

  

  Courtesy IMF Financial Operations 2018.

  For lending operations (for which the Fund is mostly known for), the IMF does offer SDRs as an alternative to “usable currencies” from its General Resources Account, but in practice, the majority of loans and repayments are made in usable currencies (page 92). (“Freely usable currencies”, according to the IMF are currencies “widely used to make payments for international transactions, and [are] widely traded in the principal exchange markets.”)

  Quotas are also tied to an IMF member’s voting power, and they determine the share of SDR allocations. When SDR’s are created by the IMF, out of thin air, they are allocated among all 189 IMF members according to the quotas. The IMF can’t allocate SDRs to itself or to prescribed holders (page 89).

   

  Once newly created SDRs are collected, two entries arise on an IMF member’s balance sheet: “SDR holdings” on the asset side, and “SDR allocations” on the liability side.

  Courtesy Users’ Guide To The SDR: A Manual of Transactions and Operations in SDRs.

  Members receive the SDR interest rate on SDR holdings and pay the SDR interest rate on SDR allocations. SDR interest rate transfer system is a zero-sum game. Those having less SDR holdings than allocations pay interest to those with more SDR holdings than allocations. The IMF’s SDR Department, the center of the SDR apparatus, manages all interest rate flows.

  So when, say, Norway exchanges SDR holdings for currency via the IMF’s SDR Department, Norway’s SDR holdings will be lower relative to its SDR allocations. Therefore, Norway will pay interest. Norway’s transaction will cause others, in the SDR universe, to have more SDR holdings than allocations who then will receive the interest paid by Norway.

  The SDR department receives interest on all outstanding SDR holdings and charges interest on all SDR allocations.

  How Is the SDR Value and SDR Interest Rate Determined?

  The exchange rate of the SDR, set daily, is based on the weights of the currencies comprising the SDR basket. Today, the basket contains five currencies: the U.S. dollar, Chinese renminbi, the Japanese yen, the euro, and the Great British Pound. In the second column in the table below, you can see what weight, in percentage, is assigned to each currency (“Currency weight”).

  

  The SDR is revised every five years. The most recent revision of the SDR basket was in 2015, when the Chinese renminbi was added. After the revision, on October 1, 2016, the new currency weights were set, and the exchange rates between the currencies that day prompted a “Currency amount” for each of them (page 100). The latter is displayed in the third column in the table above and can be seen as a multiplying factor for the SDR’s daily valuation.

  Because the exchange rates between the currencies in the SDR basket continuously fluctuate, prevailing rates are used for the SDR’s daily valuation as well. In the fourth column, you can see the prevailing “Exchange rate,” which is multiplied by the currency amount to arrive at a “U.S. dollar equivalent” (in the fifth column). All the U.S. dollar equivalents added up instigate the price of the SDR denominated in U.S. dollars. On February 14, 2020, the value of the SDR was expressed as $1.36751. With the U.S. dollar exchange rate, the SDR’s exchange rate with other currencies can be computed.

  So, the SDR is neither a claim on these currencies nor do they fully or fractionally back the SDR. Instead, the currency weights, currency amounts, and exchange rates produce a daily SDR value, which is used when SDRs are exchanged for currency.

  The SDR interest rate is set weekly and is based on the 3-months interest rate benchmarks of the five currencies and their respective weights in the SDR basket (page 89). The interest rate benchmarks are:

  —US dollar: three-month US Treasury bills

  —Euro: three-month rate for euro area central government bonds with a rating of AA and above published by the European Central Bank

  —Chinese renminbi: three-month benchmark yield for China Treasury bonds as published by the China Central Depository and Clearing Co. Ltd.

  —Japanese yen: three-month Japanese Treasury discount bills

  —Pound sterling: three-month UK Treasury bills.

  Remarkably, the floor for the SDR interest rate is 0.05%.

  How Are SDRs Traded?

  Because “there is no market for the SDR itself in which excess supply or demand pressure can be eliminated by adjustments in the price”, SDRs are primarily traded via Voluntary Trading Arrangements (VTAs). Meaning, supply and demand are connected through a managed market at the SDR Department. In the IMF Financial Operations 2018, we read:

  The role of the IMF [SDR Department] in transactions by agreement [VTAs] is to act as an intermediary, matching participants in this managed market in a manner that meets, to the greatest extent possible, the requirements and preferences of buyers and sellers of SDRs.

  In other words, a country wishing to sell SDRs for usable currency will notify the SDR Department to match the seller with a buyer. Trades are settled through the SDR Department. It’s not prohibited for countries to exchange SDRs for currency, but, again, there’s no market. The SDR is used almost exclusively in transactions with the IMF; for operations between IMF members and the General Resources Account (page 86).

  Next to VTAs through the SDR Department, there’s one more way for the IMF to make its members exchange SDRs: the designation mechanism. From the IMF Financial Operations 2018:

  In the event there is insufficient capacity under the voluntary trading arrangements [VTAs], the IMF can activate the designation mechanism: IMF members with a strong balance of payments and reserves position may be designated by the IMF to purchase SDRs from members with weak external positions.

  In case of emergency, the IMF will designate a member, with a strong balance of payments, to exchange currency for SDRs (page 105). Although, I doubt the designation mechanism has ever been activated, or ever will (page 86 and 93). The IMF states, “the functioning of the SDR Department … is based on the principle of mutuality and intergovernmental cooperation.” As far as I know, there is no judicial framework that can make the IMF command sovereign nations how to disperse their international reserves. In case the proverbial “shit hits the fan”, I’m doubtful members will buy SDRs according to the whims of the IMF.

  With respect to IMF loans, things are different. These are based on conditionality, in which case the Fund can exercise significant power over borrowing nations.

  Other Deficiencies

  According to my analysis, the SDR will never be the main international reserve asset. Not in its current form, nor in any future form. One of its deficiencies that I haven’t addressed extensively is that the essence of the SDR has changed regularly since 1969. First, it was a book entry defined in gold weight. In 1974 its value was redefined as a basket of sixteen currencies. And the SDR interest rate “set semiannually at about half the level of a combined market interest rate that was defined as a weighted average of interest rates on short-term market instruments in France, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States [page 87].” In 1981 the basket was altered to five currencies, and the SDR interest rate was made equal to market rates. In 2000, the basket was brought down to four currencies, and new selection criteria were adopted. In 2015, the last significant change was made when they added the Chinese renminbi. But who knows what an SDR will be in the future?

  Now, why would any monetary authority hold most of its resources in an asset which essence can be modified (and its units created boundlessly)? And then to think there is no actual market for them to be exchanged, and Voluntary Trading Arrangements and the designation mechanism presage anything but liquidity.

  What Have SDR Scholars Written?

  Another core deficiency of the SDR was addressed by Eswar S. Prasad, former Chief of the Financial Studies Division at the IMF’s Research Department, in The Dollar Trap (page 280):

  In principle, SDRs can be exchanged for “freely usable” currencies but cannot be used directly in private transactions. Thus, increasing the stock of SDRs does not increase the total liquidity of the global monetary system.

  Because SDRs are not backed by anything and are not a medium of exchange, creating SDRs doesn’t create more “total liquidity of the global monetary system.”

  Now, what is the true value of these SDRs as they’re not backed by currency and there is no market to exchange them? The reality is that the SDR’s true value “derives from the commitments of members to exchange SDRs for freely usable currencies [page 86].” Consequently, when members aren’t committed to exchange SDRs, its true value drops to zero. Surely, a fictional exchange rate will continue to be published—to serve as a unit of account—but its true exchange rate would be zero.

  The economist Fred Hirsch, senior adviser to the IMF (1966-1972), published an essay in 1974 titled “An SDR Standard: Impetus, Elements, and Impediments.” Hirsch wrote that it was “generally recognized in both academic and official circles, [that] SDRs in their present form are inadequate … [as] a secure and controlled base for world monetary reserves.” To continue, “a more comprehensive SDR system would represent a substantial step toward a world central bank.”

  I agree. Maybe the SDR can succeed if its essence is changed once again, the world would fully financially integrate, and all countries would be subordinate to one world central bank that could control all of its members’ monetary policy. But that’s not going to happen. First, it makes no sense. Second, the current trend is financial disintegration. Look at Brexit and the trade war between China and the U.S. Are we really to believe that the world will submit under a new global central bank that will issue the “SDR 11.3.4”? And all nations will surrender their monetary sovereignty? I don’t think so.

  Additionally, central banks are buying gold or repatriating gold. The motivation to buy gold is to diversify away from what can be printed boundlessly. Repatriating gold was called “economic nationalism” by the Executive Director of the Austrian central bank in 2015, Peter Mooslechner. Which is a fitting description for the present trend.

  Hirsch also stated integration wasn’t feasible, nor, in his view, desirable:

  At present [1974], however, the integrationist objective is not generally regarded as feasible on a global basis (and some, including myself, would not regard it as desirable).

  Why China Is Promoting SDRs

  Some of you might think, “so what was all the fuss about when the renminbi was added to the SDR? Financial blogs were speaking of a new paradigm! What about the Governor of the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), Zhou Xiaochuan’s paper from March 23, 2009—Reform the international monetary system—in which the SDR was discussed?”

  Yes, Zhou wrote the IMS should be less centered around the U.S. dollar, and more towards, as an example, the SDR. From Zhou about the SDR:

  A super-sovereign reserve currency managed by a global institution could be used to both create and control the global liquidity.

  Special consideration should be given to giving the SDR a greater role.

  This will require political cooperation among member countries.

  Zhou’s remarks boil down to an SDR overhaul and a world central bank, as mentioned by Hirsch. Not feasible.

  In my view, Zhou mentioned the SDR as a decoy. There are two reasons why the Chinese like to talk about SDRs.

  One, the SDR is about symbolism. China’s goals are to internationalize the renminbi as a trade currency, and have it globally accepted as a reserve currency. In the end, to leverage the Chinese economy, equal to the extent economies of international currency issuers such as the U.S. and the eurozone have advantaged. Adoption into the SDR gave the renminbi a seal of approval as world reserve currency. This is one reason why China is cheering about the SDR.

  Two, the Chinese want to diminish the role of the U.S. dollar in every way possible. Hence, China currently publishes its international reserves denominated in U.S. dollars and SDRs. For the Chinese, the more attention is diverted from U.S. units of account, the better.

  

  China’s international reserves in 2019, denominated in U.S. dollars and SDRs.

  In 2016, the weight of the Chinese golden Panda coin changed from 1 troy ounce to 30 grams. Effectively, the coin’s weight went from 31.103 grams to 30 grams. This change was symbolic as well as strategic: to use as few U.S. units of account as possible. Similar to denominate value as much as possible, “not in U.S. dollars.” The Panda weight adjustment also streamlined it to be traded on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, where the gold price is quoted in yuan per fine gram (not troy ounce).

  Next to symbolism, China also develops concrete methods to gain international market share at U.S.’s expense. By, for example, launching international commodity trading in renminbi such as the Shanghai Gold benchmark and Shanghai Oil.

  Consider that since Zhou’s paper was published, in March 23, 2009, the PBoC added 520 million SDRs to its international reserves and 1,348 tonnes of gold. Measured in their own units of account (irrespective of the change in the gold price), China’s SDR reserves went up by 95%, and its gold reserves by 225%.

  But because a unit of gold is more expensive, and its price has gone up since 2009, the amount of gold added by the PBoC since then is worth 50 billion SDRs at today’s prices, which is 9,491% more than the 50 million in SDR reserves increment.

  Did Zhou mean to shift the IMS towards the SDR? Did he saw value in the SDR? If so, why didn’t he put his money where his mouth is?

  Or, was Zhou’s message simply to ditch the dollar, but he preferred not to speak about gold, as this would put steroids on the gold price? An escalating gold price would make the PBoC able to buy less gold in the process of diversifying its foreign exchange reserves. I think this is why Zhou mentioned SDRs.

  It’s always best to look at what central bankers do, not what they say. Across the globe many central banks have been shifting towards gold since 2009, not SDRs.

  Conclusion

  From all the deficiencies concerning the SDR—it’s not a currency, there is no market, no liquidity, it’s essence can be changed, etc.—I think the SDR will continue to play a marginal role in international economics. At most its use as a unit of account will be expanded.

  In the near future I expect gold’s role in the IMS to increase. When economic growth declines, countries will (likely) devalue their currencies, and when “economic nationalism” increases, reserve asset managers will prefer to hold the only universally accepted financial assets that doesn’t have counterparty risk and can’t be printed: gold.

  Stay up to date, subscribe to Voima Insight—click here

  The views expressed on Voima Insight are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official views or position of Voima Gold.

  You are allowed to copy our content, in whole or in part, provided that you give Voima Gold proper credit and include the appropriate URL. The name Voima Insight and a link to the original post must be included in your introduction. All other rights are reserved. Voima Gold reserves the right to withdraw the permission to copy content for any or all websites at any time.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 03/03/2020 – 23:25

• Bernie-Supporting Denver Councilwoman Encourages Coronavirus Patients To Attend MAGA Rallies
  Bernie-Supporting Denver Councilwoman Encourages Coronavirus Patients To Attend MAGA Rallies

  A Denver councilwoman has come under fire for praising a now-deleted tweet from a user who said they would attend “every MAGA rally I can” if they are infected with the new coronavirus.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Candi CdeBaca (D) tweeted “#solidarity Yaaaas!!” in support of the message:

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  And surprise, she’s a supporter of Bernie Sanders – whose staffers were caught on hidden camera espousing the virtues of throwing rich people in literal gulags while they redistribute their wealth.

  The Denver city councilwoman who’s encouraging people with coronavirus to go to Trump rallies to spread the virus is a… Bernie Sanders supporter. I bet you’re all shocked. 🙄

  This is what so many socialist Democrats like her really want, to kill Republicans. Absolutely sick. pic.twitter.com/L5H2IT5QCu

  — Robby Starbuck (@robbystarbuck) March 3, 2020

  In response to the tweet, CdeBaca’s office said: “Councilwoman CdeBaca made a sarcastic tweet on Twitter to call attention to the Trump administration’s downplaying of the Coronavirus outbreak as a “hoax” no more dangerous than the common flu. Rather than conservative outlets making a four-day-old Tweet their focus on Super Tuesday, they should focus their energy on demanding a competent Federal response to this public health crisis instead.”

  The Colorado Republican Party, meanwhile, said in response: “Councilwoman CdeBaca praising a social media post calling for Trump supporters to be infected with the coronavirus is simply disgusting. There can be no room in our politics for wishing harm on Americans who have different political beliefs. Democrats in Colorado and across the country need to condemn this evil statement,”  “In light of these comments, the Colorado Republican Party is calling on Councilwoman CdeBaca to resign immediately.”

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 03/03/2020 – 23:05

• The Syria Deception
  The Syria Deception

  Submitted by the Swiss Propaganda Research organization

  Understanding the geopolitical and psychological war against Syria.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  What is the Syria war about?

  Contrary to the depiction in Western media, the Syria war is not a civil war. This is because the initiators, financiers and a large part of the anti-government fighters come from abroad.

  Nor is the Syria war a religious war, for Syria was and still is one of the most secular countries in the region, and the Syrian army – like its direct opponents – is itself mainly composed of Sunnis.

  But the Syria war is also not a pipeline war, as some critics suspected, because the allegedly competing gas pipeline projects never existed to begin with, as even the Syrian president confirmed.

  Instead, the Syria war is a war of conquest and regime change, which developed into a geopolitical proxy war between NATO states on one side – especially the US, Great Britain and France – and Russia, Iran and China on the other side.

  In fact, already since the 1940s the US has repeatedly attempted to install a pro-Western government in Syria, such as in 1949, 1956, 1957, after 1980 and after 2003, but without success so far. This makes Syria – since the fall of Libya – the last Mediterranean country independent of NATO.

  Thus, in the course of the “Arab Spring” of 2011, NATO and its allies, especially Israel and the Gulf States, decided to try again. To this end, politically and economically motivated protests in Syria were used and were quickly escalated into an armed conflict.

  NATO’s original strategy of 2011 was based on the Afghanistan war of the 1980s and aimed at conquering Syria mainly through positively portrayed Islamist militias (so-called “rebels”). This did not succeed, however, because the militias lacked an air force and anti-aircraft missiles.

  Hence from 2013 onwards, various poison gas attacks were staged in order to be able to deploy the NATO air force as part of a “humanitarian intervention” similar to the earlier wars against Libya and Yugoslavia. But this did not succeed either, mainly because Russia and China blocked a UN mandate.

  As of 2014, therefore, additional but negatively portrayed Islamist militias (“terrorists”) were covertly established in Syria and Iraq via NATO partners Turkey and Jordan, secretly supplied with weapons and vehicles and indirectly financed by oil exports via the Turkish Ceyhan terminal.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  ISIS: Supply and export routes through NATO partners Turkey and Jordan (ISW / Atlantic, 2015)

  Media-effective atrocity propaganda and mysterious “terrorist attacks” in Europe and the US then offered the opportunity to intervene in Syria using the NATO air force even without a UN mandate – ostensibly to fight the “terrorists”, but in reality still to conquer Syria and topple its government.

  This plan failed again, however, as Russia also used the presence of the “terrorists” in autumn 2015 as a justification for direct military intervention and was now able to attack both the “terrorists” and parts of NATO’s “rebels” while simultaneously securing the Syrian airspace to a large extent.

  By the end of 2016, the Syrian army thus succeeded in recapturing the city of Aleppo.

  From 2016 onwards, NATO therefore switched back to positively portrayed but now Kurdish-led militias  (the SDF) in order to still have unassailable ground forces available and to conquer the Syrian territory held by the previously established “terrorists” before Syria and Russia could do so themselves.

  This led to a kind of “race” to conquer cities such as Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor in 2017 and to a temporary division of Syria along the Euphrates river into a (largely) Syrian-controlled West and a Kurdish (or rather American) controlled East (see map above).

  This move, however, brought NATO into conflict with its key member Turkey, because Turkey did not accept a Kurdish-controlled territory on its southern border. As a result, the NATO alliance became increasingly divided from 2018 onwards.

  Turkey now fought the Kurds in northern Syria and at the same time supported the remaining Islamists in the north-western province of Idlib against the Syrian army, while the Americans eventually withdrew to the eastern Syrian oil fields in order to retain a political bargaining chip.

  While Turkey supported Islamists in northern Syria, Israel more or less covertly supplied Islamists in southern Syria and at the same time fought Iranian and Lebanese (Hezbollah) units with air strikes, but ultimately without success: the militias in southern Syria had to surrender in 2018.

  Ultimately, some NATO members tried to use a confrontation between the Turkish and Syrian armies in the province of Idlib as a last option to escalate the war. In addition to the situation in Idlib, the issues of the occupied territories in the north and east of Syria remain to be resolved, too.

  Russia, for its part, has tried to draw Turkey out of the NATO alliance and onto its own side as far as possible. Modern Turkey, however, is pursuing a rather far-reaching geopolitical strategy of its own, which is also increasingly clashing with Russian interests in the Middle East and Central Asia.

  As part of this geopolitical strategy, Turkey in 2015 and 2020 even used the so-called »weapon of mass migration«, which may serve to destabilize both Syria (so-called strategic depopulation) and Europe, as well as to extort financial, political or military support from the European Union.

  What role did the Western media play in this war?

  The task of NATO-compliant media was to portray the war against Syria as a “civil war, the Islamist “rebels” positively, the Islamist “terrorists” and the Syrian government negatively, the alleged “poison gas attacks” credibly and the NATO intervention consequently as legitimate.

  An important tool for this media strategy were the numerous Western-sponsored “media centres”, “activist groups”, “Twitter girls”, “human rights observatories” and the like, which provided Western news agencies and media with the desired images and information.

  Since 2019, NATO-compliant media moreover had to conceal or discredit various leaks and whistleblowers that began to prove the covert Western arms deliveries to the Islamist “rebels” and “terrorists” as well as the staged “poison gas attacks”.

  But if even the “terrorists” in Syria were demonstrably established and equipped by NATO states, what role then did the mysterious “caliph of terror” Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi play? He possibly played a similar role as his direct predecessor, Omar al-Baghdadi – who was a phantom.

  Thanks to new communication technologies and on-site sources, the Syria war was also the first war about which independent media could report almost in real-time and thus for the first time significantly influenced the public perception of events – a potentially historic change.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 03/03/2020 – 22:45

• Tesla Downgrades Hardware On "New" Model 3s In China, Then Delivers Them Anyway To Unsuspecting Customers
  Tesla Downgrades Hardware On “New” Model 3s In China, Then Delivers Them Anyway To Unsuspecting Customers

  It looks like Tesla may have finally found a way to use up all of that old, unused inventory that’s been sitting on the company’s balance sheet: make new cars with old parts, and blame the coronavirus.

  At least, that’s exactly what it appears the company is doing in China, according to a recent report by Xinhua. 

  On Tuesday, the news broke that Tesla was “downgrading” hardware on its China made Model 3 due to “supply chain status amid the epidemic” and it then promised free upgrades to its customers. Instead of just doing the right thing, which would be suspending production until you can make the product property, Tesla is doing what it does best: half assing it. 

  The report points out that some Chinese consumers were noticing that the hardware in their newly delivered Tesla vehicles was inconsistent with their orders. Tesla responded by saying that Hardware 2.5 had been installed in some vehicles that were promised Hardware 3.0.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Isn’t that a nice way to find out, as a consumer, that you’re not getting what you ordered?

  Elsewhere, this would look suspiciously like a bait and switch. And it appears from Xinhua’s report that Tesla only fessed up after consumers started to take notice. We’d also be extremely interested in finding out when and how Tesla delivers on the promise of “free upgrades” for the customers taking delivery of their vehicles, with the wrong hardware, now.

  The company’s Gigafactory in China resumed work on Feburary 10. 

  People on social media were skeptical – to say the least. But it seems as long as Tesla’s stock holds up, Elon Musk will continue to get away with things like this. It’s when the tide goes out on the stock that we’re most interested in finding out what bubbles to the surface:

  Imagine Ford pulling a stunt like this?

  “Here’s your new F150. We ran out of V8 engines, so we put a 4-cylinder in for now.”$TSLA $TSLAQ $F $GM https://t.co/GHay1wGwah

  — passthebeano (@passthebeano) March 3, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 03/03/2020 – 22:25

• Physicist Says Parallel Universes Definitely Exist And We May Soon Explore Them
  Physicist Says Parallel Universes Definitely Exist And We May Soon Explore Them

  Authored by Aaron Kesel via TheMindUnleashed.com,

  Theoretical physicist Sean Carroll expressed that clues in the small-scale structure of the universe point to the existence of numerous parallel worlds.

  The shocking comments were made on the Jeff Rogan Experience (JRE) podcast last year. Carroll says that the fact that tiny particles like electrons and photons don’t have one set location in the universe is evidence that there are many parallel universes.

  Recently, in a follow up interview with News.com.au, Carroll expanded his thoughts.

  “But there’s a lot more going on,” Carroll told News.com.au. “Not every world you imagine actually comes true.”

  The common sense rules of physics that rule our lives everyday make sense to us but at very minuscule scales common sense breaks down altogether. At the quantum level, the empty vacuum of space is filled with tiny particles constantly popping in and out of existence.

  Bell’s theorem, a fundamental construct in quantum mechanics, may prove that multiverses exist.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  This theorem deals with situations where particles interact with each other, become entangled, and then go their separate ways, according to New Scientist.

  “There are still equations, physical rules, patterns that must be obeyed. Some possible alternate worlds can come true. But not all of them,” Carroll said.

  In the past, Carroll has advanced some groundbreaking yet controversial theories on topics such as the Big Bang theory and the nature of time.

  He has said that the universe didn’t start in a huge explosion as most people now believe, but instead it is an infinitely old, constantly inflating entity in which time can run both forward and backward.

  For Carroll quantum physics is not something that can be broken down and explained in simpler terms.

  “As far as we currently know,” he writes.

  “Quantum mechanics isn’t just an approximation to the truth; it is the truth.”

  “Physics is stuck trying to understand the fundamentals of nature and the Big Bang,” Carroll said.

  “It’s time to take a step back and understand its foundations. It’s time to tackle our understanding of the quantum world.”

  In 2011 physicist Brian Greene wrote a book exploring the possibility called The Hidden Reality: Parallel Universes and the Deep Laws of the Cosmos.

  “You almost can’t avoid having some version of the multiverse in your studies if you push deeply enough in the mathematical descriptions of the physical universe,” Greene told NPR.

   “There are many of us thinking of one version of parallel universe theory or another. If it’s all a lot of nonsense, then it’s a lot of wasted effort going into this far-out idea. But if this idea is correct, it is a fantastic upheaval in our understanding.”

  Even Stephen Hawking suggested that, thanks to quantum mechanics, the Big Bang supplied us with an endless number of universes, not just one.

  Up until this point understanding quantum physics and its realms has been impossible, but Carroll hopes that is changing thanks to technology.

  “Now we’re getting better at that,” Carroll says. “Technology has improved. Maybe things are going to change.”

  Greene, Carroll, and Hawking may be right, and researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee want to find out if there are multiverses or mirror images of our own reality. The team was set to record experiments last year sending a beam of subatomic particles down a 50-foot tunnel, past a powerful magnet and into an impenetrable wall.

  “If it exists, it would form a bubble of reality nestling within the fabric of space and time alongside our own familiar universe, with some particles capable of switching between the two,” lead researcher Leah Broussard told New Scientist.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 03/03/2020 – 22:05

• "No Child Should Feel Stigmatized": California Bill Would Punish Retailers With Separate Boys And Girls Departments
  “No Child Should Feel Stigmatized”: California Bill Would Punish Retailers With Separate Boys And Girls Departments

  A bill introduced by a California Democratic lawmaker would punish stores that separate toys, clothing and other children’s items into separate boys and girls sections – forcing them to pay a $1000 fine, according to The Federalist Papers.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  “I was inspired to introduce this bill after 8-year-old Britten asked, ‘Why should a store tell me what a girl’s shirt or toy is?” said California State Assembly member Evan Low of Silicon Valley, who unveiled AB 2826 last week. “Her bill will help children express themselves freely and without bias. We need to let kids be kids.”

  Via a press release by Low:

  Clothing and toys sections of department stores that are separated along gender lines pigeonhole children. No child should feel stigmatized for wearing a dinosaur shirt or playing with a Barbie doll, and separating items that are traditionally marketed for either girls or boys makes it more difficult for the consumer to compare products. It also incorrectly implies that their use by one gender is inappropriate.

  The bill states:

  This bill would require a retail department store with 500 or more employees to maintain undivided areas of its sales floor where, if it sells childcare articles, children’s clothing, or toys, all childcare items, all clothing for children, or all toys, regardless of whether a particular item has traditionally been marketed for either girls or for boys, shall be displayed. Beginning on January 1, 2023, the bill would make a retail department store that fails to correct a violation of these provisions within 30 days of receiving written notice of the violation from the Attorney General liable for a civil penalty of $1,000, as provided.

  …

  (a) A retail department store shall maintain one, undivided area of its sales floor where, if it sells childcare articles, all childcare articles, regardless of whether a particular item has traditionally been marketed for either girls or for boys, shall be displayed.

  (b) A retail department store shall maintain one, undivided area of its sales floor where, if it sells children’s clothing, all clothing for children, regardless of whether a particular item has traditionally been marketed for either girls or for boys, shall be displayed.

  (c) A retail department store shall maintain one, undivided area of its sales floor where, if it sells toys, all toys, regardless of whether a particular item has traditionally been marketed for either girls or for boys, shall be displayed.

  Yet another ‘quirk’ for California retailers to love about the Golden State.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 03/03/2020 – 21:45

• How James Madison Lay The Ground For American Paranoia
  How James Madison Lay The Ground For American Paranoia

  Authored by Daniel Lazare via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

  People have always wondered what makes America so paranoid. The historian Richard Hofstadter wrote about it in 1964 in a famous Harper’s essay, “The Paranoid Style in American Politics,” that he later expanded into a book. He took aim at all the usual suspects: Joe McCarthy going on about “a great conspiracy on a scale so immense,” turn-of-the-century Populists warning of international bankers seeking to crucify Americans on a cross of gold, antebellum Know-Nothings raving about Catholics and the Pope, and so on.

  But one aspect Hofstadter didn’t address is why.

  Why is it that Americans are so quick to blame their problems on others instead of themselves? Rather than analyzing their society in a calm and sensible way, why do they continually go in search of mysterious foreign cabals?

  The question has never been more relevant than in an age of Russia, Russia, Russia. If Joe Biden is sagging at the polls, if Bernie Sanders is surging, or if Donald Trump is seemingly headed for a second term, then it can only mean one thing: the Kremlin is at it again. As the New York Times declared in all seriousness in explaining why Sanders and Trump are benefiting at Biden’s expense, it’s because they “represent the most divergent ends of their respective parties, and both are backed by supporters known more for their passion than their policy rigor, which makes them ripe for exploitation by Russian trolls, disinformation specialists, and hackers for hire seeking to widen divisions in American society.”

  Since Russia finds it easier to manipulate Americans when they gravitate to the extremes, that’s where it somehow causes them to wind up.

  Or so corporate media assure us. But where does such paranoid nonsense come from and why does the press bombard us with it night and day?

  Although Hofstadter traced the problem back to the mid-nineteenth century, we can trace it back even farther – all the way, in fact, to the nation’s founding. Indeed, we might argue, with only slight exaggeration, that it began with a single individual: James Madison.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Madison, of course, is the wealthy Virginia slaveowner who played a leading role in the Constitutional Convention in 1787 and was an equally important figure in the great ratification debate that followed immediately after. He wrote 29 of the 85 newspaper articles known as the Federalist Papers, which expounded the new plan of government to his fellow countrymen.

  And he authored the all-important Federalist No. 10, the essay that political scientists never tire of quoting, which argues that democracy must be endlessly checked and balanced against itself in order to prevent Americans from coming together in “a rage for paper money, for an abolition of debts, for an equal division of property, or for any other improper or wicked project.”

  A Bernie supporter he was not. But Madison was even pithier in an October 1787 letter to Thomas Jefferson in which he summed up the meaning of checks and balances and separation of powers in a single sentence.

  “Divide et impera,” he wrote, “the reprobated axiom of tyranny, is under certain qualifications, the only policy, by which a republic can be administered on just principles.

  These twenty-five words tell you everything you need to know about American politics, including why they’re now in such trouble. Divide et impera, Latin for “divide and conquer,” is Madison’s ironic justification for dividing government up into separate executive, legislative, and judicial functions and then pitting them against one another so as to neutralize democracy’s most dangerous tendencies.

  The idea is to structure the polity in such a way that it ends up more rational and moderate than any of its components. But divide et impera leads to a paradox. If, as the Preamble to the Constitution states, “we the people” are the prime movers in the new republic, able to “ordain and establish” new constitutions and destroy old ones in the bargain like the 1783 Articles of Confederation, then what happens once they undergo the self-division and conquest that Madison describes? Are they still “we the people”? Or are they now an agglomeration of splintered sub-groups without any sense of collective democratic identity or will?

  Anyone who studies American fragmentation will suspect it’s the latter. But that leads to another question. Psychologists tell us that a healthy, well-balanced adult is one whose intellect, emotions, and drives come together to form a balanced and integrated whole. Since the individual is in charge of all his faculties, he’s able to marshal his resources so as to solve problems, work creatively, and process information clearly, logically, and accurately.

  But if those same faculties are fragmented and mutually at odds, the opposite occurs. Instead of marshalling his resource, the individual is paralyzed and confused. Instead of seeing the world as it is, he shies at phantoms of his own making. As a Bosnian psychologist named Vito Zepinic explained a few years ago, “the vulnerable self-structure of traumatized individuals” leads to “difficulties in self-regulation (self-esteem maintenance, lower tolerance levels, and the sense of self-discontinuity)” and “frequent upsurges of anxiety/fear, depression, and specific fears or phobias regarding the external world…”

  What holds for individual patients also holds for a collective personality like the United States. Since 2000, it has suffered repeated traumas in the form of war, terrorism, military defeat, financial crisis, and stolen elections, the effect of which has been to take Madisonian self-disintegration and render it even more debilitating. “Difficulties in self-regulation” are what happens after decades of corruption and gridlock. Problems with “self-esteem maintenance” lead to an obsession with making America great again. “Lower tolerance levels” give rise to fears of alien hordes overrunning the border. “Phobias regarding the external world” are another term for mass paranoia about Russian agents lurking behind every bush and beneath every bed.

  The upshot is a country that is lost, disoriented, and unable to tell where reality begins and fantasy leaves off. When the Washington Post recently reported that Russia is working behind the scenes to boost the Sanders campaign, a sensible person would have demanded to see the evidence. But not Bernie. To the contrary, he snapped to attention even though there was no evidence to be had and denounced Putin as an “autocratic thug” who should “stay out of American elections.”

  Similarly, when CBS News asked Biden why he was doing so poorly, he replied that it’s because “the Russians don’t want me to be the nominee … they like Bernie.” When a reporter asked Pete Buttigieg what the Russias were looking to accomplish in the 2020 election, he explained with equal confidence: they “want chaos.”

  They can’t process information concerning what Russia is really up to and therefore make up horror stories to scare themselves in the dark. Instead of exposing a petty imperialist like Jeff Bezos, the Washington Post’s owner, they allow themselves to be manipulated.

  The upshot is a democracy that is too weak and fragmented to govern itself effectively. The big question is how to overcome Madisonian self-division so as to render democracy coherent and whole. But that’s a subject for another essay.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 03/03/2020 – 21:25

• "Ground Zero For Trade" – Port Of Long Beach Warns Of Shipping Slump From China
  “Ground Zero For Trade” – Port Of Long Beach Warns Of Shipping Slump From China

  Investors are grossly underestimating the potential economic impact of Covid-19 as the first signs of China’s supply chain meltdown are now washing ashore on US West Coast ports. 

  The Port of Long Beach, the second-largest containerized port in the US, has had two top officials warn in the last several weeks of chilling effects of supply chain disruptions from China. 

  Last week, the Deputy Executive Director of Administration and Operations for the Port of Long Beach Noel Hacegaba warned China’s economic paralysis led to the increase of blank sails between China and the US. He said port activity plunged in January and February, with expected weakness to continue through March.  

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Hacegaba said the slowdown at Long Beach is starting to hit the local economy around the port. He said it could only be a matter of time before it triggers a broader slowdown in the region, and even maybe in the overall US economy. 

  As we’ve noted in many pieces of creaking global supply chains fast emerging in China and spreading outwards, Deutsche Bank’s senior European economist Clemente Delucia last month pointed out in a report titled “The impact of the coronavirus: A supply-chain analysis” that the US is overly exposed to a crashing China economy.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  As for the second Long Beach official, Bloomberg quoted Mario Cordero, executive director of the port, who said cargo volumes are expected to slump 9% YoY in February due to declining shipments from China.

  Cordero said February’s YoY loss is nearly double of 2019’s decline of 5.4%, which has already resulted in a 50% reduction in labor at the port. He said the East Asia shipping route accounts for 90% of shipments through the port. 

  “The port of Long Beach is ground zero for trade,” warns Cordero. “There was uncertainty with the trade war, but the coronavirus has taken it to chaotic.”

  Downward pressure from supply chain disruptions in China has now spilled over into the rest of the world. The transmission mechanism to the US is West Coast ports. The port Long Beach handles $200 billion in trade annually and supports 2.6 million trade-related jobs across the country, including almost 600,000 in Southern California.

  As for other West Coast ports, reports of a containerized volume declines from China are inevitable. These ports are a critical artery of the US economy’s transportation infrastructure and essential for the flow of imports and exports, representing about 12.5% of US GDP. 

  A slowdown of containerized volume at Long Beach and other West Coast ports could suggest a broader economic downturn is ahead for the US economy. 

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 03/03/2020 – 21:05

• China Composite PMI Crashes To Record Lows As Services Economy Implodes
  China Composite PMI Crashes To Record Lows As Services Economy Implodes

  Stagnating consumption amid the coronavirus epidemic has had a great impact on China’s service sector in February, as one would expect.

  February PMI data signalled the first reduction in business activity across China’s service sector on record due to restrictions implemented to contain the recent coronavirus outbreak. Firms across all sectors reported on the damaging effect that the virus was having on the economy via company closures and travel restrictions, with total new orders also falling at a record pace. Restrictions around travel also impacted firms’ ability to source workers, leading a renewed fall in staff numbers. Consequently, backlogs of work rose at a substantial pace.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Commenting on the China General Services and Composite PMI data, Dr. Zhengsheng Zhong, Chairman and Chief Economist at CEBM Group said:

  “The Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index fell to 26.5 in February, about half the reading of the previous month, marking its first drop into contractionary territory since the survey launched in November 2005. Stagnating consumption amid the coronavirus epidemic has had a great impact on the service sector.

  1) Demand for services shrank sharply. Both the gauges for total new business and new export business dropped to their lowest levels on record.

  2) It was difficult for service providers to recruit workers, and backlogs of work climbed. The drop in the employment gauge was relatively small, but its February reading marked the lowest point on record. The measure for outstanding orders surged to a record high. Supply capacity across the service sector was insufficient amid restrictions on the movement of people.

  3) The measure for input costs dropped at a steeper rate than that for prices companies charged customers, because of a sharp decline in supply capacity.

  4) Business confidence also fell to a record low. Although policies have been introduced to provide tax and financing support for industries and small businesses heavily impacted by the epidemic, service companies were still concerned about uncertainties resulting from the epidemic.

  In sum, Goldman concludes that the Caixin and NBS PMI surveys suggest activity growth in February was extremely weak. We expect service activity to partially recover in March, but in absolute level, it might take longer for services activities to normalize than manufacturing activities.

  Additionally, the Composite Output Index signaled the sharpest decline in total Chinese business activity on record in February, as company closures and travel restrictions were put in place due to the coronavirus outbreak.

  “The Caixin China Composite Output Index dropped to 27.5 in February from 51.9 in the previous month. While the gauges for new orders, new export orders and employment all weakened to their lowest levels on record, the gauge for backlogs of work rose to a record high. The decline in input costs was greater than that in output prices because upstream industries’ supply capacity was less affected.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  “The coronavirus epidemic has obviously impacted China’s economy. It is necessary to pay attention to the divergence of business sentiment between the manufacturing and the service sectors. While recent supportive policies for manufacturing, small businesses and industries heavily affected by the epidemic have had a more obvious effect on the manufacturing sector, it is more difficult for service companies to make up their cash flow losses.“

  And as China’s Composite PMI collapses, US and Japan are also in contraction with Europe – for now – somehow managing to cling to expansion…

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  But the funniest thing of all is the fact that Chinese stocks are dramatically outperfoming US and European since the start of the crisis…

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Thanks National Team for making it all seem awesome!

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 03/03/2020 – 20:57

• School In Brooklyn Hands Out "Drag Queen In Training" Stickers To 4-Year-Old
  School In Brooklyn Hands Out “Drag Queen In Training” Stickers To 4-Year-Old

  Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

  A school in Brooklyn reportedly handed out stickers to 4-year-old children during a ‘drag queen story time’ event that said “drag queen in training.”

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  According to Twitter user @beyondreasdoubt, the stickers were handed out by the unnamed private school during a “family day” that included the appearance of drag queens.

  Private school in Brooklyn had family day today with drag queen story time and they gave these out to 4 year olds pic.twitter.com/OYL5Kcb6yy

  — LB (@beyondreasdoubt) March 1, 2020

  While leftists continue to deny that ‘drag queen story time’ is sexual in nature, despite the very performative nature of drag queens being similar to burlesque dancers, examples proving it is sexual continue to emerge.

  As we highlighted yesterday, a video clip out of the UK showed a drag queen teaching toddlers how to twerk, a sexual dance where the participant repeatedly gyrates their butt in the air.

  Drag queen teaches toddlers how to twerk. Completely normal. pic.twitter.com/9wMvTNjlN6

  — Paul Joseph Watson (@PrisonPlanet) March 1, 2020

  As we highlighted last week, many drag queens have engaged in sexually explicit behavior, including one called ‘Flowjob’ who visited a primary school in Scotland after posting pictures of himself on Twitter using a dildo and a ball gag.

  A separate video that caused controversy last week also showed a drag queen dancing suggestively in front of a little girl while adults in the room cheered and applauded.

  Here’s a drag queen dancing suggestively for a young girl while the adults look on and cheer

  pic.twitter.com/b4P5OLcPdE

  — Matt Walsh (@MattWalshBlog) February 28, 2020

  Last year during a speech in front of the Lafayette Library Board of Control in Louisiana, drag queen Dylan Pontiff candidly admitted the true purpose of drag queen story time.

  “This is going to be the grooming of the next generation,” he said.

  An admitted pedophile and convicted child porn peddler also wrote an article in which he describes ‘Desmond is Amazing’ – the 12-year-old drag queen kid – as “hot”.

  Reacting to concerns over Desmond’s performance at a gay night club in New York where attendees threw money at the child, his mother defended the decision, telling an Australian TV show, “I don’t understand what the controversy is.”

  Desmond was previously involved in ‘drag queen story time’ – in which drag queens visit schools and libraries across America to read to children.

  One of the participants at a drag queen story time event in Houston, 32-year-old Albert Garza, later turned out to be a registered sex offender who was convicted of assaulting an eight-year-old boy in 2008.

  *  *  *

  My voice is being silenced by free speech-hating Silicon Valley behemoths who want me disappeared forever. It is CRUCIAL that you support me. Please sign up for the free newsletter here. Donate to me on SubscribeStar here. Support my sponsor – Emergency Survival Foods – delicious dishes & a 25 year shelf life!

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 03/03/2020 – 20:45

• Japanese Official Says Olympics Can Be Postponed As Virus Fears Surge
  Japanese Official Says Olympics Can Be Postponed As Virus Fears Surge

  A week after Japan started canceling sport and cultural events amid the broadening of the Covid-19 outbreak,  Seiko Hashitomo, Japan’s Olympic minister, raised the very real prospect of postponing The Olympic Games.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  With deaths and cases soaring in Japan (now at almost 300 cases – ex Diamond Princess – and 12 deaths, though the numbers are widely questioned), Fox News reports that Hashimoto told the upper house of parliament:

  “The IOC has the right to cancel the Games only if they are not held during 2020,” she

  “This can be interpreted to mean the games can be postponed as long as they are held during the calendar year.”

  Asked whether she believed the Games would be held if the coronavirus outbreak worsened, she replied:

  “We are making the utmost effort so that we don’t have to face that situation.”

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Notably, Japan’s Olympic Minister’s position is at odds with International Olympic Committee (IOC) member Dick Pound, who told AP News last Wednesday that the Games would most likely be canceled, rather than postponed if the outbreak continued to worsen in the months ahead.

  Pound said there’s a three-month window to decide the fate of the Games:

  “You could certainly go to two months out if you had to,” he said, which would mean the decision would come around late May.

  “A lot of things have to start happening. You’ve got to start ramping up your security, your food, the Olympic Village, the hotels, the media folks will be in there building their studios.”

  He noted that if the virus outbreak continued to deteriorate, then “you’re probably looking at a cancellation.”

  “This is the new war, and you have to face it. In and around that time, I’d say folks are going to have to ask: ‘Is this under sufficient control that we can be confident about going to Tokyo, or not?'” he said. 

  He added:

  “You just don’t postpone something on the size and scale of the Olympics. There are so many moving parts, so many countries and different seasons, and competitive seasons, and television seasons. You can’t just say, we’ll do it in October.”

  Pound said, moving the Games to another city is highly unlikely.

  “To move the place is difficult because there are few places in the world that could think of gearing up facilities in that short time to put something on,” he said.

  Since 1896, the Olympics have only been canceled during wartime. And in 1976, 1980 and 1984 faced boycotts.

  The longer the outbreak continues, the more uncertainty it would create for Olympic organizers. All eyes on May.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 03/03/2020 – 20:25

• There Are Now Over 7,000 Cryptocurrency ATMs Worldwide
  There Are Now Over 7,000 Cryptocurrency ATMs Worldwide

  Authored by Benjamin Pirus via CoinTelegraph.com,

  The number of crypto ATMs across the globe has grown to over 7,000, with machines in 75 countries.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  image courtesy of CoinTelegraph

  At press time, CoinATMRadar listed 7,014 cryptocurrency ATMs in existence. This number also includes machines hosting digital currencies other than Bitcoin (BTC), including assets such as Bitcoin Cash (BCH), Ether (ETH), Dash (DASH) and Litecoin (LTC).

  Crypto ATMs have come a long way

  The world saw its first Bitcoin ATM in 2013, when a company called Robocoin placed a machine in a Vancouver coffee shop. Allowing customers to trade Bitcoin for cash, and vice versa, the machine saw $10,000 in BTC transacted on its launch day.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  At present, 42 different manufacturers are responsible for the 7,000 global crypto ATMs.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Only two locations host Robocoin ATMs, CoinATMRadar data showed. Genesis Coin sits in the lead with machines in 2,348 locations.

  Digital asset ATMs keep coming

  The world now sees 11.7 new crypto ATMs installed per day, according to CoinATMRadar’s data from the past seven days.

  Last fall, Bitcoin ATM company Bitstop teamed up with massive United States-based mall operator Simon Malls, spurring the installation of five machines in five separate malls run by the operator.

  Florida’s Miami International Airport also received a Bitcoin ATM from Bitstop in the latter half of 2019.

  Crypto ATMs only recently surpassed the 6,000 landmark in November 2019, showing a growing public demand for cryptocurrency availability. This type of data shows digital asset adoption and presence continues waging forward, one step at a time.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 03/03/2020 – 20:05

• Americans Will Soon See More US Military Members In Turbans, Beards & Hijabs
  Americans Will Soon See More US Military Members In Turbans, Beards & Hijabs

  Americans could soon begin seeing the unusual sight of US military service members walking around in Islamic hijab and other religious garb like turbans.

  This after the United States Air Force dramatically changed its dress code policy last month to allow airmen to wear religious apparel so long as it presents an overall “professional and well-groomed appearance.”

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  

  According to the newest update to the “Dress and Personal Appearance of Air Force Personnel” code, material used for religious headwear must fit the assigned uniform color, including camouflage.

  Furthermore, beards will be allowed for religious reasons. Individual members must request permission for unshorn hair and facial hair, but upon exceeding two inches the regulations call for it to be “rolled and/or or tied” to meet the new standards.

  US Air Force adherents to the Muslim and Sikh faiths are those most likely to take advantage of the loosening uniform changes — the latter which are now also authorized to wear under-turbans or patkas even in indoor areas (where headwear is typically removed).

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  

  But a couple of military members identifying with “Norse Heathen faiths” have already stepped up to claim a religious exemption for their beards, as The Air Force Times explains: 

  Airman 1st Class Harpreetinder Singh Bajwa in June 2019 became the first active-duty Sikh airman allowed to wear a turban, beard and long hair, which Sikhs tie in a bun and then cover with the turban.

  And at least two airmen who follow the Norse Heathen, or pagan, faiths have been granted permission to wear a beard.

  The new uniform regulations note, however, that the individual’s chain of command can order the removal of religious headgear in various circumstances if it “furthers a compelling governmental interest.”

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  

  One example would be for exercises involving the necessity of donning a chemical/biological gas mask, which must fit snuggly over the head.

  For years the US armed services resisted such religious accommodation, emphasizing standard “clean cut” uniformity and appearance across the board — but various “religious freedom” lawsuits were recently brought by the ACLU, which began to drive limited policy changes. 

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 03/03/2020 – 19:45

• Super Tuesday: Biden Wins VA, NC, AL, OK, TN, MN, AR, MA; Bernie Wins CA, VT, CO, UT; Bloomberg Wins American Samoa
  Super Tuesday: Biden Wins VA, NC, AL, OK, TN, MN, AR, MA; Bernie Wins CA, VT, CO, UT; Bloomberg Wins American Samoa

  Fourteen states, one territory and Democrats abroad are voting in the Super Tuesday presidential primaries, with 1,357 delegates to the Democratic National Convention up for grabs.

  The big question remains – How will the coronavirus affect the turnout of millions of voters.

  And the results begin:

  • Biden wins Virginia, North Carolina, Alabama, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Minnesota, Arkansas, Massachusetts

  • Bernie wins Vermont, Colorado, Utah, & California

  • Bloomberg wins American Samoa?

  The projected delegate count is:

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Source: NYTimes

  The Trump campaign puts out a statement:

  “The results only increase the likelihood that no candidate will have enough delegates for a first ballot victory at their convention, which only means more chaos! The media is hyperventilating about Joe Biden but everyone should remember that he is just as terrible a candidate right now as he was a few days ago.”

  “Even if Bernie is not on November’s ballot, his big government socialist ideas will be because they have become mainstream in today’s Democrat Party. President Trump will wipe the floor with whatever Democrat is unlucky enough to be the nominee.”

  Details:

  VIRGINIA (99 delegates)

  Winner: Joe Biden

  The former VP got 66% of the black vote. Bloomberg was a distant third which is a major blow given the time and effort he focused in that state.

  VERMONT (16 delegates)

  Winner: Bernie Sanders

  100% expected to clinch his home state. Mike Bloomberg in 4th behind Warren

  NORTH CAROLINA (110 delegates)

  Winner: Joe Biden

  NBC’s Kornacki showing exit polls showing “a landslide” for Joe Biden in North Carolina. He’s crushing among African Americans and winning by double digits among white voters too.

  AMERICAN SAMOA (6 delegates)

  Winner: Mike Bloomberg

  “A decisive victory, we are led to believe, over Tulsi Gabbard…” says MSNBC’s Brian Williams on Bloomberg’s win in American Samoa.

  ALABAMA (52 delegates)

  Winner: Joe Biden

  Exit polls again showing huge support among African Americans powering Biden to a big win in Alabama, per MSNBC.

  OKLAHOMA (37 delegates)

  Winner: Joe Biden

  Fox is calling it for Joe – With 413 of 1,948 precincts reporting, Biden 32%, Sanders 23%, Bloomberg 17%, Warren 14%, Gabbard 2%.

  COLORADO (67 delegates)

  Winner: Bernie Sanders

  NBC project Bloomberg finishing second in Colorado.

  TENNESSEE (64 delegates)

  Winner: Joe Biden

  MINNESOTA (75 delegates)

  Winner: Joe Biden

  Biden winning Minnesota is first genuine whoa of the night, apparently after he was endorsed by Amy Klobuchar. Bernie Sanders carried the state in 2016.

  ARKANSAS (31 delegates)

  Winner: Joe Biden

  UTAH (29 delegates)

  Winner: Bernie Sanders

  Fox projects Sanders as the winner, Biden is 4th.

  MASSACHUSETTS (91 delegates)

  Winner: Joe Biden

  “They don’t call it Super Tuesday for nothing,” Biden says. Warren finishes 3rd in her home state.

  CALIFORNIA (415 delegates)

  Winner: Bernie Sanders

  Worth noting the significance of AP feeling confident enough to call Sanders winning California, the state with the largest number of delegates, immediately after polls closed. Sanders is polling 12 points ahead of Biden in California, according to Real Clear Politics average of polls.

  Developing…

  By the way, Donald Trump has a big lead in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. With 1,276 bound delegates needed to win, Trump has 548 delegates right now, versus former Massachusetts Gov. William Weld, with 1.

  *  *  *

  Biden is screaming ahead of Bernie in the prediction markets…

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  The market is bid on the back of Biden’s gains for now…

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  When asked if Mike Bloomberg will drop out tonight, Bloomberg Campaign Manager Kevin Sheekey says, “absolutely not.” President Trump has other ideas..

  The biggest loser tonight, by far, is Mini Mike Bloomberg. His “political” consultants took him for a ride. $700 million washed down the drain, and he got nothing for it but the nickname Mini Mike, and the complete destruction of his reputation. Way to go Mike!

  — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 4, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Hillary Clinton tells NPR she doesn’t plan to endorse anyone.

  “I am going to say the same thing I’ve been saying from the beginning of this vigorous primary contest: I hope the voters will pick the person that is most able to beat Donald Trump in the electoral college. At the end of the day, that is all that matters.”

  It appears The DNC have pulled out all the dirty tricks to defeat Bernie…

  @BernieSanders got BURIED on the #Californiaprimary2020 I almost didn’t think they even put him on there! #FeelTheBern2020 pic.twitter.com/pCWj0P5EP2

  — Dj Saint Julian (@DjSaintJulian) March 4, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  But, Sanders strikes a defiant tone.

  “Tonight I can tell you with absolute confidence we are going to win the Democratic nomination.”

  Trump tweets Warren was the loser of the night, other than Bloomberg, he says…

  Elizabeth “Pocahontas” Warren, other than Mini Mike, was the loser of the night. She didn’t even come close to winning her home state of Massachusetts. Well, now she can just sit back with her husband and have a nice cold beer!

  — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 4, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  *  *  *

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Source: FiveThirtyEight.com

  *  *  *

  Lots more to come.

  • MAINE (24 delegates): Polls close at 8 p.m.

  • TEXAS (228 delegates): Polls close at 8 p.m.

  • DEMOCRATS ABROAD (13 delegates): Voting continues through March 10.

  *  *  *

  The Democratic presidential contenders are poised to face off on Tuesday in one of the most consequential contests of the primary race so far, with 14 states set to vote and 1,300 delegates up for grabs.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  As The Hill reports, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) heads into the contests as the front-runner after wins in New Hampshire and Nevada, as well as a virtual tie in Iowa, but former Vice President Joe Biden got a major boost after decisively winning South Carolina.

  However, it appears the money is piling into Biden as prediction markets now have him at 54% chance of getting the nomination (vs Bernie, who has plunged to 40%)…

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Super Tuesday will also mark the debut of former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg on the ballot. He will join a race that has significantly winnowed over the past three days with Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and billionaire Tom Steyer all dropping out.

  The Primary Voters are considerably more diverse than recent primaries. Roughly four in 10 voters in today’s Democratic presidential primaries are people of color, according to the NBC News Exit Poll conducted in 12 of the 14 Super Tuesday states but today’s voters are on the older side – 64% of today’s Democratic voters are 45 or over, including the 29% of voters who are age 65 or over.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Here are the most crucial states to watch out for on Tuesday, according to The Hill: 

  California 

  California is the biggest prize of the evening, with 415 delegates up for grabs. 

  Sanders is currently the clear favorite to win the Golden State, but Biden has an opportunity to put a dent in his support. The RealClearPolitics average from the Democratic primary’s California polls shows Sanders with a nearly 17 point lead over his rivals, but Biden’s support has ticked up in a few recent polls.  A CBS News/YouGov poll released Monday showed Sanders with 31 percent support in the state and Biden at 19 percent support, with Warren at 18 percent. Biden also stands to benefit in the state if he receives the support of former Buttigieg and Klobuchar voters. That would give him a better chance of reaching the 15 percent viability threshold in the state, providing him with a share of the delegates even if he does not win the state as a whole.  “We’re no longer dividing the pot between four, five or six people. We’re dividing it between three people,” said Kelly Dietrich, the founder and head of the National Democratic Training Committee, which trains Democrats to run for public office. However, it still remains to be seen what influence Bloomberg will have in the state where he’s spent $36 million on advertising alone.  “I think he’s going to have trouble competing in California,” Democratic strategist Brad Bannon said. “The fact that Joe Biden is a stronger candidate than he was three days ago hurts Bloomberg, who is also in the moderate lane.”  “Part of Bloomberg’s vote strategy was associated with [Biden’s] weakness, and Biden is now a stronger candidate,” he said. 

  Texas 

  The Lone Star State has the second-most delegates up for grabs, at 228. Sanders is leading in the state, but by a much narrower gap than in California. 

  The RealClearPolitics polling average in Texas’s Democratic primary puts Sanders six points ahead of Biden.  Sanders is relying on his strong support among the Latino community in the state after he was propelled to victory in Nevada thanks in large part to Hispanic voters. A poll conducted by the firm Latino Decisions for Univision and the University of Houston’s Center for Mexican American Studies, shows Sanders polling at 31 percent support among Texas Hispanics, while Bloomberg and Biden trailed at 23 and 19 percent, respectively. The poll was released before South Carolina’s primary. Moe Vela, a Democratic strategist and White House adviser in the Clinton and Obama administrations, said Biden will need to improve his standing among the Hispanic community in order to perform well in states like Texas.  “As much credit as you have to give Bernie Sanders, I also have to say the vice president’s campaign needs to get their act together when it comes to the Latino electorate,” Vella, who sits on the board of Transparent Business, told The Hill. 

  Massachusetts 

  The Bay State could prove to be a death knell for Warren’s campaign if she does not perform well.

  Despite her high name recognition and endorsements from some of the state’s progressive lawmakers, including Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) and Rep. Joe Kennedy (D-Mass.), recent polling shows Warren slipping in her home state. Suffolk University/Boston Globe/WBZ-TV poll released on Saturday shows Warren’s fellow New Englander Sanders leading with 24 percent support in the state, while she trailed at 22 percent, within the survey’s 4.4-percentage point margin of error. A WBUR survey released earlier last week showed an even wider gap, with Sanders at 25 percent support and Warren at 17 percent support. That poll’s margin of error was plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.  Warren’s performance in New Hampshire could offer some insight into how well she will perform in Massachusetts. The Granite State is famous for choosing New England candidates, voting for Sanders in 2016 and 2020. Warren, by contrast, came in fourth in New Hampshire, behind Midwesterners Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar.  “I think she definitely has to win Massachusetts tomorrow, in part to go out to the next wave of states,” Bannon said. [How] can you make a plea for votes there when you can’t win your own state?”

  Virginia 

  Virginia has the fourth largest share of delegates of the Super Tuesday contests and Bloomberg has paid close attention to the state.

  Bloomberg has visited Virginia seven times, more than any other Super Tuesday state. The campaign has eight offices across the commonwealth, including in the Republican-leaning strongholds of Danville and Roanoke. More than 80 Bloomberg staffers are dispersed throughout Virginia. His campaign cites the need to keep the state blue after the legislature flipped to Democrats in 2019 and points to his heavy investment in advocating for stronger gun control measures in Virginia. The issue has played a central role in the state’s political discourse since the 2007 Virginia Tech shooting. “Virginia is a microcosm of one part of the future of the party, you know the moderate, progressive and suburban voters,” senior Bloomberg adviser Tim O’Brien told The Hill. Bloomberg himself touted his own work in the state’s 2019 elections during a get-out-the-vote event in McLean on Saturday. “It [was] so important to help flip the Virginia legislature blue this fall, and I was glad to help get it done,” Bloomberg said to a boisterous crowd. However, a number of recent polls show Bloomberg trailing Sanders and Biden in the state. Biden, in particular, could hurt Bloomberg’s chances in the state after a big win in South Carolina.Biden was also endorsed by a number of notable Democratic figures in Virginia recently. Former Gov. Terry McAuliffe, Sen. Tim Kaine, Rep. Elaine Luria, and Rep. Bobby Scott were all on hand for a Biden rally in Norfolk on Sunday evening where the former vice president received a rock star-like reception. 

  Alabama 

  African American voters make up a large share of the Democratic vote in Alabama, making the state critical for candidates looking to appeal to a voting group that is widely considered the backbone of the Democratic Party. 

  Five Thirty-Eight’s forecast shows Biden with a 61 percent chance of winning the state. The former vice president stands to perform well with African American voters after an overwhelming win in South Carolina. Biden received a warm welcome in Selma on Sunday at an event marking the anniversary of the civil rights march. “The moderate African Americans tend to be the majority of the Democratic Party, or at least a large part,” Democratic strategist Jamal Simmons told The Hill. “Older African Americans who tend to be the leadership of these big parties in the states like Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, they tend to be very pragmatic, if not more moderate. So that means they’re more likely to be Joe Biden voters.” While Sanders has relied on younger voters of color for support, he and Biden appeared to split the black youth vote in South Carolina, which might not bode well for the progressive senator in Alabama. “Bernie didn’t have his over performance with young African-Americans that he had in other places,” Simmons said, referring to South Carolina.

  Who would Trump prefer? For now, prediction markets appear confident that whoever it is, Trump will win…

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 03/03/2020 – 19:43

• The Places In America With The Best (And Worst) Hospitals
  The Places In America With The Best (And Worst) Hospitals

  Via Priceonomics.com,

  Medical outcomes and the quality of healthcare are incredibly difficult to measure in America.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Patients often see many different doctors and hospitals and each of them administering small parts of the patient care. Getting the data from these disparate providers and assessing their relation to patient outcomes is next to impossible. Not only that, but how do you measure patient outcomes exactly? If a patient dies, is it because they got bad care or because they were extremely sick.

  Amidst this chaos, there is one data source attempting to rate the quality of healthcare, particularly in hospitals — Medicare. Medicare, for those who are not familiar, is the federally funded insurance organization for senior citizens. Because virtually all spending and treatment for this population flows through Medicare, it’s in a unique position to measure hospital quality.

  Starting April 2015, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS.gov) started releasing hospital quality rankings. This data was most recently updated in January 2020. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, CMS.gov, is part of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS.gov).

  Along with Priceonomics customer PsyDPrograms.org, we decided to analyze this Medicare hospital quality data to see the states and cities with the best (and worst) hospitals in America. 

  On the state level, Wisconsin, South Dakota and Utah have the best hospitals on average while Washington DC, New York, and Nevada have the worst-rated ones. Among the major cities we looked at Cincinnati, Austin and Indianapolis ranked as having the best hospitals, while Las Vegas, Brooklyn, and Washington DC ranked as having the worst.

  *  *  *

  Before diving into the data, it’s worth spending a moment on the methodology.

  For this analysis we looked at the CMS “Overall Hospital Quality Star Ranking” made most recently available in January 2020. In this data set, 3,698 hospitals were scored on a rating from 1 to 5 stars, with 5 stars being the best.

  The CMS outlines their methodology for creating and the scoring hospitals here, which includes 57 different measures in categories such as patient experience, mortality, and safety of care. While this data is for Medicare and Medicaid patients, these hospitals tend to service patients of all age groups and income levels.

  To begin, let’s look at which states have the highest rated hospitals on average according to the CMS. We group all hospitals by state and then calculate the average among hospitals that were given a star rating by the CMS. Below are all 50 states plus Washington, DC, ranked from states with the highest score to the lowest:

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Wisconsin hospitals rank as the top in the country, with a 3.9 average quality score. Part of the reason for the state’s success is that it has a high number of Mayo Clinic hospitals in the state, all of which got over 5 stars. In South Dakota the Avera hospital network has five hospitals attaining the 5 star ranking.

  Washington DC ranks as the area with the worst rated hospitals with a 1.4 star rating on average. While better rated hospitals are available in nearby Maryland and Virginia, DC hospitals have been criticized for failing at patient safety and maternal health. New York has the second worst CMS hospital ratings, despite spending more than any other state on healthcare.

  Next, let’s extend this analysis to determine which cities have the best and worst rated hospitals according to the CMS. The chart below shows the average star quality in cities with at least 7 rated hospitals. Cities are ranked from highest average score to lowest:

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Cincinnati ranks as the city with the highest rated hospitals in the United States, just beating out Austin and Indianapolis. Each of the top cities have mostly 5 and 4 star hospitals. On the other end of the spectrum, Las Vegas ranks as the the city with the worst rated hospitals in the country. Nearly every hospital in Las Vegas attains a 1-star rating, the lowest score given by the CMS. Part of this low score can be attributed to a shortage of doctors in the state of Nevada.

  Lastly, is there any difference in quality score based on who owns the hospital? Do non-profits provide better quality of care over for-profits? Or are government organizations more effective? The chart below shows the average rating by ownership type:

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  By a considerable margin, physician-owned properties have the highest rating with a 3.9 average quality score. While there were only 34 of these types of properties rated by the CMS (approximately 1% of rated hospitals), it may be worth exploring if physician-owned hospitals have the promise to deliver better healthcare. State and Federal hospitals rank last when it comes to quality, just beating out proprietary (private hospitals).

  *  *  *

  The CMS hospital data reveals there are huge disparities in the quality of care across America. For example, if you live in Las Vegas, almost every single hospital available is rated one-star. Other places like Cincinnati or Austin are virtually all four or five-star hospitals. While measuring health care quality is a challenging effort, the CMS data is a great starting point for finding out which hospitals are offering quality care and which ones are not.  As the old adage goes, you can’t improve what you don’t measure.

  *  *  *

  If you’re a company that wants to work with Priceonomics to turn your data into great stories, learn more about the Priceonomics Data Studio. 

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 03/03/2020 – 19:25

• "It's Life Or Death For Us" – Maryland's Seafood Industry In Crisis Over H-2B Visa Program Cap
  “It’s Life Or Death For Us” – Maryland’s Seafood Industry In Crisis Over H-2B Visa Program Cap

  Acting Homeland Security Secretary Chad Wolf said last week that there’s no decision yet to raise the cap on the H-2B visa program for seasonal workers, and this could complicate things for Maryland’s seafood industry heading into crab season.

  There are at least nine crab picking houses scattered in Dorchester County, Maryland, which produce about 95% of the state’s crab meat. Many operators are now warning the state government that they will have to scale back operations without an ample supply of seasonal workers from the H-2B visa program, reported the Maryland Department of Agriculture. 

  “Blue crabs are an integral part of our state’s heritage and our economy,” said Secretary of Agriculture Joe Bartenfelder. “The world-class crabmeat produced by Maryland processors relies heavily on the availability of seasonal labor via the H-2B visa program. This survey reinforces what we have learned in previous years: a lack of reliable access to H-2B workers poses a major threat to the future of this iconic industry.”

  Many of these crab picking businesses are family-owned and operated and are now on the brink of shuttering their doors without the proper access to cheap labor.

  “It’s life or death for us,” said Bryan Hall, with W Hall & Son Hand Picked.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  CBS Baltimore said seafood operators along the Chesapeake Bay heavily rely on the temporary work visa program to supply cheap labor. 

  “Right now, there are six of us in danger of not opening up at all this year,” said John Walker, with Phillips AE Sons.

  Walker said after a century in business, there’s the uncertainty that operations in 2020 could remain closed as labor shortages persist.

  “If we do not get these pickers, we’re closed,” Walker said.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  The Department of Agriculture warned that if additional help is not seen on the Chesapeake Bay during the start of the crab season, the industry could lose as much as $150 million.

  “If you take 2.54 American jobs created by each one of these folks that come here, we’re looking at over 1,000 jobs, American jobs, that are dependent on these visas,” said Jack Brooks, with the Chesapeake Bay Seafood Foundation.

  Crab season starts on April 1, and if cheap labor isn’t supplied to crab pickers via the H-2B program in the next couple of weeks, it could turn out to be a disastrous year for Maryland’s beloved seafood industry.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 03/03/2020 – 19:05

• Majority Of Coronavirus Deaths Reported Outside China For First Time Since Outbreak Began: Live Updates
  Majority Of Coronavirus Deaths Reported Outside China For First Time Since Outbreak Began: Live Updates

  Summary:

  • US virus death toll hits 9
  • 2nd case confirmed in NY
  • Oregon officials warn up to 500 cases may be in state already
  • US now screening everyone aboard flights from SK and Italy
  • Spain reports 1st death
  • 1st case confirmed in North Carolina
  • Westchester Temple closes
  • Italy mulls cancelling all sporting events for a month
  • 2nd NY case commuted to Manhattan, traveled to Miami
  • Chile, Argentina report first cases
  • Germany reports 46 new cases
  • 2nd case confirmed in New Hampshire
  • Santa Clara confirms 11th case
  • 1st case reported in Berkeley
  • Third case possibly identified in Fla.
  • Stocks surge, then fade, after surprise 50 bp rate cut
  • 4th person dies in France
  • Fauci says we should know soon whether Gilead’s vaccine will work
  • Son of Westchester corona case attended NYC school that closed
  • Pope tests negative for coronavirus
  • NYC high school closes over ‘suspected case of coronavirus’
  • Global case total passes 91,000
  • UK case total hits 51
  • US case total tops 100 across 15 states (including evacuees)
  • South Korea case total passes 5,000; death toll hits 34
  • Italian death toll surpasses Iran
  • Iran confirmed cases pass 2,000, 70+ dead
  • Head of European football says Euro 2020 will go on
  • 9 new cases confirmed in Japan

  * * *

  Update (19305ET): Here are a few late-breaking virus stories we’d like to add before we starting winding down for the day.

  Alphabet became the latest tech giant to cancel its developer conference (following Facebook’s lead): the annual Google I/O event has been cancelled over coronavirus fears.

  Meanwhile, the Italian government is about to release a series of recommendations to try to halt the coronavirus outbreak, the Guardian reports.

  The tips are contained in a document issued by the the country’s scientific committee that will be released within the next few hours. They include:

  Social distancing: remaining away from crowded environments and maintaining a distance of two meters from other people; especially within enclosed spaces.

  Greetings: avoiding kisses and hugs when greeting people.

  Elderly population: people older than 75 years with underlying health conditions are advised to remain at home and avoid social events.

  Moreover, the Juventus and Milan’s upcoming Italian Cup semi-final second leg match has been postponed. The match was meant to be held on Wednesday night and would have followed the 1-1 first-leg draw in Milan’s San Siro. The committee has called for all sporting events to be held behind closed doors.

  The death toll from Covid-19 in Italy has risen to 79 and confirmed cases to 2.263, the emergency commissioner and civil protection chief Angelo Borrelli has said.

  According to Reuters, Irish authorities have confirmed a second case of coronavirus, a woman in the the country’s east who just returned from Italy – yet another example of how the virus has spread from Italy all across Europe, as European bureaucrats have opted to leave their borders open.

  “Today we are confirming that Ireland has diagnosed one new case of COVID-19. The case arises in a female in the east of the country and is associated with travel from Northern Italy,” Dr Tony Holohan, Chief Medical Officer with the Department of Health told a news briefing.

  Earlier, Ford became the latest company to limit travel for employees after two in China caught the virus, per Reuters.

  Meanwhile, Lyft CEO Brian Roberts told his audience at the KeyBanc Capital Markets 15th Annual Emerging Technology Summit in San Francisco that the outbreak had not yet impacted demand for Lyft’s ride-hailing services, per Reuters. The bulk of the company’s business is US focused.

  Earlier we reported that deaths in Italy climbed to 79 on Tuesday as health officials reported 27 new deaths tied to the virus, surpassing the 77 on Iran’s official death toll.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  The total number of cases in Europe’s worst-hit country climbed to 2,502 from 2,036 on Monday.

  * * *

  Update (1845ET): Santa Clara County reported 2 additional cases on Tuesday afternoon, increasing the number of cases in the county to 11, according to KTVU.

  Santa Clara County announces 2 new cases of COVID-19 Total now 11. 3pm press cnference will be streamed live on KTVU App

  Download the APP: https://t.co/CxvuMo9b2J

  — KTVU (@KTVU) March 3, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Both of the new cases are still under investigation to determine the source of transmission, the health department said in a news release. Currently, of the total, only two have been determined to be transmited from person to person, four are travel-related; three are close contacts to known cases; and the two new cases remain under investigation, health officials said.

  In other news, a Berkeley resident who recently returned from traveling in Europe has become the first confirmed patient in Berkeley.

  JUST IN: First coronavirus case confirmed in Berkeley possibly linked to recent travel https://t.co/2YBDDkDeax pic.twitter.com/aqaOInAQst

  — KTVU (@KTVU) March 3, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  It sure has been an eventful 24 hours…

  First cases of coronavirus in last 48 hours:

  – Chile
  – Argentina
  – Liechtenstein
  – Ukraine
  – Gibraltar
  – Morocco
  – Senegal
  – Tunisia
  – Latvia
  – Jordan
  – Andorra
  – Portugal
  – Indonesia
  – Saudi Arabia

  — Norbert Elekes (@NorbertElekes) March 3, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  * * *

  Update (1835ET): Germany has reported another 46 cases, increasing its total to 196.

  JUST IN: Germany reports 46 new cases of coronavirus today, 196 cases in total.

  Patients ranging from 2 to 69 years old.

  — Norbert Elekes (@NorbertElekes) March 3, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  How much more will it take before they stop jawboning and start spending?

  Meanwhile, the US is tightening border controls.

  PENCE SAYS WE ARE NOW SCREENING ALL TRAVELERS COMING TO U.S. ON DIRECT FLIGHTS FROM ITALY AND SOUTH KOREA

  — FXHedge (@Fxhedgers) March 3, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  * * *
  Update (1810ET): As investors turn their attention to the 14 Super Tuesday primaries, with bulls everywhere pulling for a strong showing from Joe Biden, who appears to have prevailed over his challengers. For somebody who was considered the ‘presumptive’ nominee at the beginning of the contest, Biden almost didn’t make it, and if it wasn’t for Mike Bloomberg’s debate implosion, he would likely be where Bloomberg is now (except, without the limitless funds, Biden would be forced to concede a whole lot earlier).

  So let’s review: Around the world, about 40 deaths have been attributed to the virus in the past 24 hours outside mainland China, while only 31 deaths were reported in China during the same period, marking the first time that deaths ex-China surpassed deaths in mainland China, according to NBC News.

  With three more deaths in Washington State confirmed on Tuesday, the US is stealing the spotlight from South Korea, which, thanks to its much smaller economy, doesn’t have the same kind of influence over global markets. Around the world, some 3,100 people have died from the virus since the outbreak began.

  New Hampshire confirmed the most recent case at around 6 pm ET.

  Almost equally alarming: The New Hampshire Department of Health and Human Services reported that the state’s first infected patient attended an invitation-only private event on Friday, Feb. 28, despite being told to remain in isolation. That patient was identified only as an employee of Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center. It’s unclear whether the second patient was exposed as a result.

  For anybody in the US who hasn’t voted, the CDC has issued some tips for how to not catch the virus while voting.

  Working at a polling station? Help reduce the risk of exposure to respiratory diseases, like #COVID19, by routinely cleaning and disinfecting frequently touched surfaces & voting associated electronics. Learn more: https://t.co/ZjeKiqous8. #SuperTuesday pic.twitter.com/P58uVQiyqo

  — CDC (@CDCgov) March 3, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Here’s a map of US cases so far, courtesy of  NBC News:

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

   

  * * *

  Update (1740ET): The confirmation that a Westchester lawyer from New Rochelle who works at an office near Grand Central is New York’s second coronavirus case has set off a wave of quarantines, including a school where the infected is part of the ‘feeder network’ – he doesn’t even have a kid currently going there.

  BREAKING – New Rochelle synagogue ordered to halt services and approx 600 people told ordered to quarantine due to potential #COVID19 #NovelCoronavirus exposure. pic.twitter.com/9PYvfmgpEt

  — Tony Aiello (@AielloTV) March 3, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Now, Temple Young Israel in New Rochelle is closing temporarily, and guests who attended two events at the temple late last month have been asked to self-quarantine.

  The health department of Westchester County, New York, ordered Temple Young Israel in New Rochelle to halt all services immediately due to potential coronavirus exposure connected to a member of the congregation. The congregant, an attorney who tested positive for the virus Tuesday, was reported in serious condition at New York Presbyterian Hospital.

  Congregants who attended services on Feb. 22 and a funeral and a bat mitzvah on Feb. 23 must self-quarantine until at least March 8, Westchester health officials said. Those who don’t comply will be required to do so, officials said.
  The synagogue has 380 member families, according to its website.

  Oh, and just as we suggested earlier, it’s believed that the patient did travel on Metro North, the most obvious public-transit route between his home and office, according to the New York Post.

  The patient has two kids, one who attends the high school in Riverdale, and the other who attends college in the city.

  * * *

  Update (1700ET): Most of the focus on Tuesday has lingered on Washington and New York State. But officials in Oregon are reportedly warning that there could be between 300 and 500 Oregonians who were unknowingly exposed to the virus, according to Dr. Dean Sidelinger, the state health officer and epidemiologist, the Oregonian reports.

  The advance of coronavirus to a remote town more than 200 miles from Portland means the virus “is fairly widespread in our community.” On Monday, officials announced Oregon’s third presumptive coronavirus case. The person is a casino worker who attended a youth basketball game at a Umatilla County middle school.

  Also, officials have confirmed that deceased patients No. 8 and No. 9 were both diagnosed with the virus postuhumously, helping to explain some of they mystery surrounding their cases. Two of the three deaths reported Tuesday died last week.

  * * *

  Update (1610ET): Some footage of President Trump from a press conference earlier in the day, where he said “anything can happen” with the virus, sounding slightly less dismissive of the risks.

  Trump on people w/o health insurance w/ coronavirus: “They have a big problem & we’re going to look at the uninsured people that, you know, this came out as a surprise to all of us. It just happened. It shows what can happen in life … [we’re gonna] see if we can help them out” pic.twitter.com/nolTXDpdPU

  — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 3, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Meanwhile, for American stocks, it was a “not-so-super Tuesday” as the risk of a prolonged pandemic in the US and across the world appeared to climb.

  Trump added during a brief meeting with reporters after the market closed that he felt the Fed wouldn’t do more and “that’s unfortunate”, he added that the economy is in “great shape” and added that one vaccine is heading to trials and other remedies are being tested – he even mentioned the possibility of a middle class tax cut.

  * * *

  Update (1535ET): A special committee guiding Italy’s virus response has reportedly recommended that the government force the cancellation of every sporting event in the country for a month, stopping football just weeks before Euro 2020.

  Earlier, the organizers of Euro 2020 said the virus wouldn’t stop the tournament.

  As the virus spreads across the US, one notable standout is Hawaii, which hasn’t confirmed a single case despite facing several scares early on. On Tuesday, local media reported that the annual Honolulu Festival has been cancelled over virus fears, according to Hawaii News Now.

  Meanwhile, we’re hearing reports that the lawyer who is the second case of the virus in New York worked at a firm based in Grand Central, increasing the probability that he took public transit, like the Metro North commuter train on the New Haven line that passes through his home town of New Rochelle.

  On Capitol Hill, an emergency funding bill to finance the fight against the coronavirus could be completed and ready for the signature of the US president Donald Trump by Friday evening, Senator Patrick Leahy said.

  Mike Pence and Chuck Schumer met on Tuesday, and talks were reportedly productive, with a deal possible in the near future.

  Algeria has confirmed three new cases, bringing the country’s total to eight, according to the nation’s health ministry.

  Ireland has confirmed a second case on Tuesday; like the first, it was tied to travelers to Italy, something that’s becoming a theme as the virus spreads from Italy across the continent.

  * * *

  Update (1530ET): Officials have confirmed the first case of the virus in North Carolina, Reuters reports. This comes after state officials in Georgia, New Hampshire and Florida among others have confirmed their first cases as the virus nears the point of spreading to half of the 48 states in the Continental US (though, importantly, Hawaii has had some close calls).

  Meanwhile, here’s a handy breakdown of the cases in Washington State, the hardest hit state so far.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  All 27 cases are clustered in two counties considered to be ‘suburban Seattle’, making the Washington outbreak the largest concentration detected to date by the US public health system.

  * * *

  Update (1520ET): The WHO said during its Tuesday press conference that the death rate for Covid-19 is higher than the 2% previously believed.

  “More people are susceptible to infection and some will suffer serious disease. Globally about 3.4 percent of COVID-19 cases have died,” he said. “By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1 percent of those infected.”

  By comparison, the flu kills 0.1% of those infected. The WHO credited the “rapidly growing insight” into the virus thanks to the research that has been carried out since the outbreak began.

  * * *

  Update (1455ET): Reuters has confirmed two additional deaths in Washington State on top of the one reported earlier by the NYT.

  • WASHINGTON STATE DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH REPORTS TOTAL NUMBER OF CONFIRMED CORONAVIRUS CASES NOW STANDS AT 27, INCLUDING 9 DEATHS, UP FROM 18 CASES AND 6 DEATHS ON MONDAY

  As BNO pointed out, we were also initially confused about whether these were two additional deaths, or if there was an overlap with the case reported earlier by NYT.

  Turns out, there wasn’t.

  We weren’t sure if the 2nd death mentioned here was the death reported earlier today, but it turns out they are both in addition to it. So we now have 9 deaths in the U.S. https://t.co/AEbJ2zMHzz

  — BNO Newsroom (@BNODesk) March 3, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  In addition, there are now 27 confirmed cases in Washington alone, nearly double the number in the entire US (outside the evacuees) a week ago. The death toll in the US has climbed to 9, all in Washington State. At this rate, the state’s death toll is climbing faster than the 10-year yield is falling.

  By BNO’s count, the US case total has climbed to 111.

  Meanwhile, as more patients report being unable to receive coronavirus tests, or of being hit with a hefty medical bill after receiving a negative test, President Trump said Tuesday that he would look into getting insurance companies to cover coronavirus-related costs.

  * * *

  Update (1420ET): A seventh individual has died of the coronavirus in the suburban Seattle. This time, the case wasn’t identified until long after the patient died, according to the NYT. Since the individual died last week, they are technically the earliest known fatality from the infection.

  The person was brought to Seattle’s Harborview Medical Center on Feb. 24 and died two days later, before the outbreak really hit the state.

  A spokeswoman for the hospital said on Tuesday that test samples from the person, who was a resident of the same nursing home that has had a number of coronavirus cases and deaths, have tested positive for the virus.

  “In coordination with Public Health, we have determined that some staff may have been exposed while working in an intensive care unit where the patient had been treated,” said Susan Gregg.

  BREAKING: A 7th person with coronavirus has died in the Seattle area. This time, the infection wasn’t identified until well after the person’s death.

  The death was 6 days ago at Harborview Medical Center. https://t.co/IvVpdiScaM

  — Mike Baker (@ByMikeBaker) March 3, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The Dow is about to be down 1,000 on the day once again, despite the Fed’s emergency 60 bp rate cut.

  In Iran, officials will release 54,000 inmates to curb the spread of the coronavirus in its prisons.

  How could things get any worse? Maybe if officials confirm a slate of already-dead individuals actually died from the virus.

  Elsewhere, officials in Spain reported the country’s first death, after reporting 129 cases earlier on Tuesday. Chile and Argentina have also reported their first cases as the virus spreads in Latin America. Reporters also confirmed that the 2nd case identified in NY state is an example of “community transmission”, having no obvious source of infection.

  * * *

  Update (1325ET): Following reports last night about a Miami woman who was denied proper testing despite suspicions she might be infected, state officials have identified a third coronavirus case in Florida, according to local media reports.

  Mirroring the situation in the states, Boris Johnson has been accused of playing down the coronavirus emergency in the UK. Two hours after he delivered a speech claiming the government’s No. 1 priority is containing the virus, about which he said there’s no need to panic, the NHS declared the outbreak a “Level 4 incident”, its possible alert level.

  In other news, Bloomberg reports that a Florida student whose classmates shook hands last Friday with the vice president has been quarantined after his mother came into contact with a coronavirus patient.

  Put another way: BBG is essentially reporting that Pence shook hands with someone, who knows someone, who knows someone who interacted with a coronavirus patient. How did they even figure that out?

  * * *

  Update (1250ET): As we reported yesterday, the IMF and World Bank have apparently confirmed rumors that they will hold their annual meetings ‘virtually’, instead of holding the annual massive gatherings in Washington.

  IMF, WORLD BANK EXPECTED TO ANNOUNCE SHORTLY THAT SPRING MEETINGS WILL BE HELD VIRTUALLY, NOT IN PERSON, DUE TO CORONAVIRUS – SOURCE

  — FXHedge (@Fxhedgers) March 3, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  * * *

  Update (1155ET): Italian health officials have confirmed another rash of cases and deaths: The Italian death toll of patients who have tested positive for the virus has risen to 79 from 52, surpassing the ‘official’ death toll in Iran (though most suspect the real numbers are far higher in Iran).

  Meanwhile, the total number of cases has climbed to 2,502, up from 2,036 late Monday.

  • ITALIAN DEATH TOLL OF PATIENTS WHO TESTED POSITIVE FOR CORONAVIRUS RISES TO 79 FROM 52
  • TOTAL NUMBER OF CASES IN ITALY RISES TO 2502 FROM 2036 ON MONDAY

  Most of the cases have been diagnosed in Lombardy, a region in the north that’s been the hardest hit (it’s also a major contributor to Italian GDP).

  * * *

  Update (1035ET): The WHO is holding its daily press conference, though they’ve been thoroughly upstaged by the Fed:

  CORONAVIRUS CONTINUES TO SPREAD RAPIDLY: The World Health Organization holds their daily news briefing on coronavirus. https://t.co/Heny51Q7cZ

  — NowThis (@nowthisnews) March 3, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  * * *

  Update (1030ET): Some comments from Treasury Secretary Mnuchin during his testimony before the House:

  • MNUCHIN SAYS NOT CONSIDERING CHINA TARIFF ROLLBACK AT THIS TIME
  • MNUCHIN SAYS NOT ENOUGH INTEREST TO ISSUE 50 YR BOND
  • MNUCHIN: ‘THERE WILL BE SOME ISSUES’ FOR U.S. GDP THIS YEAR DUE TO CORONAVIRUS
  • MNUCHIN: CORONAVIRUS WILL BE WORSE THAN FLU

  Some comments from Dr. Anthony Fauci are also hitting the tape:

  • NIH OFFICIAL FAUCI SAYS WE SHOULD KNOW WITHIN SEVERAL MONTHS WHETHER OR NOT GILEAD’S ANTIVIRAL CORONAVIRUS TREATMENT WORKS, IMPLEMENTATION COULD BE IMMINENT AFTERWARD
  • NIH OFFICIAL FAUCI SAYS IT WILL BE AT LEAST A YEAR OR A YEAR AND A HALF UNTIL A CORONAVIRUS VACCINE IS READY TO BE DEPLOYED

  In other virus-related news, Al Jazeera reports that a fourth person in France has died from the virus. Yesterday, French officials confirmed a fourth death, before revising the death toll down to three blaming a reporting error. 6 new cases were confirmed earlier in Oman, while the Ayatollah urged Iranians to fight the virus’s spread by washing their hands.

  “Don’t violate the recommendations and instructions of the responsible authorities in terms of prevention, in terms of keeping hands, face and living environment clean and not infecting these and preventing the infection of these,” he said. Khamenei also said the outbreak should not be overblown.

  “The issue is an issue that will pass. It’s not something extraordinary,” he said. “I don’t want to minimize the issue but let’s not make it very big either.

  Let’s hope the Iranians are developing a more elaborate containment strategy.

  * * *

  Update (1012ET): The Fed sucker-punched shortsellers in the face Tuesday morning with a “surprise” emergency 50 bp rate cut, acquiescing to President Trump’s demands after the president went on a tear bashing Powell during last night’s Trump rally in NC.

  The news sent stocks AND gold higher. But amazingly, the rally in stocks is already starting to fade.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  But…but…but we though the only reason stocks were selling off is because the G7 suggested there wouldn’t be any cuts, which has now been exposed as part of an elaborate head-fake by central bankers to prime markets for maximum impact.

  And even after all that…clearly worries about a wealthy lawyer spreading the virus among the denizens of NYC’s white-shoe law firms and their clients is an image that traders can’t seem to escape.

  Looks like we’re gonna need another rate cut, Jerry.

  Before we go, we’d like to highlight some thoughts from WSJ editor Michael Derby.

  So, is this the Powell Put?

  — Michael S. Derby (@michaelsderby) March 3, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Given that we’re pretty likely to be testing the zero bound again, maybe even this year, I wonder if the Fed should have moved a little faster on the policy review. May need that new toolkit sooner than expected.

  — Michael S. Derby (@michaelsderby) March 3, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The Fed launched the review back in November 2018, following the first bout of Q4 volatility.

  And if ever there was a time for bold new thinking from the Fed, this is it. Because, as the market’s erratic response suggests, the same old policy prescription of rate cuts and QE isn’t going to cut it. Start buying stocks and doling out cash to the people like they did in Hong Kong, or log off.

  * * *

  Update (0950ET): Here are some more details from Cuomo’s presser, including announcing that the city is keeping two families in the Buffalo region ‘under observation’ and that the state legislature has approved a $40 million emergency aid package on Monday night.

  Governor Cuomo said the news of the second New York patient should not be a cause for alarm, reiterating that health officials had expected that the disease would be found in multiple locations around the state and would be likely to spread.

  “Yes, people are going to get infected,” the governor said, in an interview on Long Island News Radio, adding that “80 percent self-resolve,” referring to the estimated recovery rate for mild or asymptomatic cases.

  Mr. Cuomo said that the new patient is hospitalized and that he works in Manhattan, and had an underlying respiratory illness. The governor, a Democrat, said the state is also monitoring two families in the Buffalo region who had recently traveled to Italy, one the centers of Europe’s outbreaks.

  “The real issue is how many people will get seriously ill,” Mr. Cuomo said. “How many people, God forbid, could lose their lives.”

  Acting on a proposal by Mr. Cuomo, the state legislature approved on Monday night a $40 million emergency aid package to help the state Department of Health hire additional staff and equipment to help track and fight the disease.

  The NYT also reported that a high school in Westchester County had closed as a precautionary measure. The patient didn’t have any children at the school, but it said he’s a part of its feeder program. The patient is said to be a lawyer, and has been hospitalized at a hospital in Bronxville. He also reportedly recently visited Miami. The patient is said to have an “underlying respiratory illness” (he’s been transferred to New York-Presbyterian Hospital in Manhattan for maximal care). It’s unclear if he ever took public transportation.

  * * *

  Update (0920ET): In a statement, NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio revealed that the Westchester resident who became NY’s second coronavirus case was diagnosed in a city hospital. Their test was confirmed in a city lab during its first day of coronavirus operation.

  Recent media updates also claimed that the Westchester man works in Manhattan.

  statement from @NYCMayor on new coronavirus case, tested & confirmed in NYC lab pic.twitter.com/SCfS1o8gBM

  — Ben Max (@TweetBenMax) March 3, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Additionally, Cuomo confirmed that the man recently traveled to Miami. Florida has confirmed more than 4 cases in different parts of the state. Later during the presser, Cuomo confirmed that the Riverdale school that closed was attended by the son of the Westchester patient, and that other schools might close as a precaution.

  In addition to the Riverdale school where one of the patient’s children attended closing, the Westchester Day School, a private Jewish day school in Mamaroneck, has closed out of an “abundance of caution” because the still-unidentified patient is part of its feeder program.

  The man was said to be a lawyer from New Rochelle, who is currently hospitalized at Lawrence Hospital in Bronxville.

  We still haven’t learned the identity of the woman who tested positive after visiting Iran, it’s unclear if we’ll ever learn this patient’s name.

  * * *

  Update (0855ET): During this morning’s press conference, Gov. Cuomo announced that New York public health officials have confirmed the second case of the coronavirus in the state, this time in a man in his 50s from Westchester County.

  Per the NYT, the patient was confirmed overnight via a state lab in Albany. Cuomo added that the two cases, which have no obvious connection to cases abroad, suggest that the virus may be “spreading in communities with no known connection to hot spots for the disease.”

  Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo announced on Tuesday morning a second confirmed case of coronavirus in New York, a man in his 50s in Westchester County, just outside of New York City, suggesting that it was spreading in communities with no known connection to hot spots for the disease.

  The patient, whose test was confirmed overnight by a state lab in Albany, had no direct connection with any known center of the contagion, which was first identified in China in late December.

  On Sunday, officials announced the state’s first case, a 39-year-old woman in Manhattan, a health care worker who had been visiting Iran, one of the epicenters of the virus’s rapid worldwide spread.

  Governor Cuomo said the news of the second New York patient should not be a cause for alarm, reiterating that health officials had expected that the disease would be found in multiple locations around the state and would be likely to spread.

  “We don’t see any direct connection,” Mr. Cuomo said, noting that the patient is hospitalized.

  So that’s one case in Manhattan (a woman who visited Iran) and one case in Westchester (with no obvious link to anyone) plus a school in Riverdale (right on the border of Westchester) closing because some may have been exposed to the virus.

  Also, more details on the school closing, per Reuters: The SAR Academy and SAR High School in Riverdale, in the Bronx ,is the school that will close to Tuesday.

  “At this time it important to remain calm,” according to the statement, which didn’t provide any more details.

  Readers who are too young to remember the 2003 SARS outbreak might not remember, but NYC narrowly avoided an outbreak when a doctor from Singapore who had been infected by a patient flew to NYC for a conference. He grew increasingly ill while in New York, eventually cutting short his trip and boarding a flight for home, as the NYT reminds us.

  Fortunately, the city already has MTA workers out in force disinfecting the subway.

  Coronavirus In NYC: Disinfecting Subways & Buses – https://t.co/IlJ6nxCONB

  — Kloud ☁️ (@_live_k) March 3, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  * * *

  Update (0840ET): With only one case confirmed in NYC, the hysteria is already descending, and it’s not limited to the Brooklyn Costco.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  An NYC high school said it will close Tuesday due to a “suspected case of coronavirus in its community.”

  • NEW YORK CITY HIGH SCHOOL SAYS CLOSED TUESDAY AFTER SUSPECTED CASE OF CORONAVIRUS IN ITS COMMUNITY – STATEMENT

  Stocks aren’t going to like that.

  Gov. Cuomo said he would hold a press conference to update the public at 9 am in New York.

  Last night, Cuomo tweeted that he would require NY health insurers to cover coronavirus-related costs for New Yorkers.

  BREAKING: I am announcing a new directive requiring NY health insurers to waive cost sharing associated with testing for #coronavirus, including emergency room, urgent care and office visits.

  We can’t let cost be a barrier to access to COVID-19 testing for any New Yorker.

  — Andrew Cuomo (@NYGovCuomo) March 3, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  New Yorkers receiving Medicaid coverage will not have to pay a co-pay for any testing related to #coronavirus.

  Currently all COVID-19 tests being conducted at the State’s Wadsworth Lab are fully covered.

  — Andrew Cuomo (@NYGovCuomo) March 3, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  We suspect we’ll know more soon.

  * * *

  Update (0800ET): UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock has confirmed 11 new cases in the UK, raising the total to 51.

  * * *

  Following the longest publicly-disclosed illness of Pope Francis’s papacy, the Vatican has confirmed that the leader of 1 billion Catholics has tested negative for the coronavirus. After days of insisting that the pope didn’t have the virus…somebody at the Vatican was clearly worried that the Pope might have been exposed.

  Pretty soon, millions of Americans and Europeans will know that feeling, if they don’t already.

  Yesterday, the death toll in the US climbed to 6, while the death toll across Europe has moved closer to 100. Late last night, officials in Washington State confirmed what many probably already suspected: 4 of the six deceased were either patients or staff at a nursing home in Kirkland, suburban Seattle.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Yesterday, the Dow posted its biggest one-day rebound in points as an endless parade of strategists and talking heads on CNBC jawboned hopes of ‘coordinated central-bank intervention’ into reality, though in the hours since Monday’s close, though hopes have dimmed somewhat, thanks in part to this Reuters report. As G7 finance minister and central bankers prepare for Tuesday morning’s conference call, it seems traders around the world have suddenly remembered that there’s not much central banks can do, even after the OECD called for a mix of monetary and fiscal stimulus to rescue global growth.

  In the span of days, the number of confirmed coronavirus cases in the US has climbed to more than 100 across 15 states if we include the evacuees, along with six deaths so far. the White House, and other governments, are shifting their focus, according to the New York Times, to distributing tests and focusing on early identification and containment instead of trying to keep the virus out.

  This comes as the number of cases worldwide surpassed 90,000 on Tuesday.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  In China, Communist Party officials are luxuriating in their success, or at least a convincing image of success, in suppressing the outbreak: Now that the novel coronavirus appears to be on the decline, vindicating Beijing’s heavy handed tactics (for weeks, 760 million were subjected to some form of restriction on their movements, while 100 million faced punishment for leaving their homes without permission).

  On Tuesday, Shanghai and Beijing instituted ‘travel bans’ directed at travelers from hot zones including Italy, South Korea and – of course – the US, turning President Trump’s ‘racist’ travel restrictions on their head. Here’s more from the NYT:

  Major cities across China have announced new travel restrictions on people who have recently visited countries where coronavirus infections are on the rise.

  On Tuesday, the authorities in Shanghai said that all travelers entering the city who had visited countries with significant outbreaks within the last two weeks must undergo a 14-day quarantine at home or at an approved isolation center. Officials in Guangdong Province announced similar measures, the state news media reported on Tuesday.

  And a city official in Beijing announced on Tuesday that all arrivals into the capital from countries struggling with outbreaks — including Iran, Italy, Japan and South Korea — would be subject to a 14-day quarantine.

  At least 13 people in China were found to be infected with the coronavirus after returning from countries such as Iran and Italy, two places that have seen some of the most severe outbreaks outside of Asia in recent days, according to the authorities.

  A 31-year-old Chinese woman had worked in a restaurant in the Italian city of Bergamo before returning home to Qingtian County, in the southeastern province of Zhejiang, where she tested positive for the virus. Seven more people who worked at the same restaurant in Bergamo were later found to be infected after they returned to Zhejiang, the local authorities said.

  In recent days, county officials in Qingtian have urged overseas residents to reconsider any plans to return home, citing the challenges they could pose to China’s efforts to control the epidemic.

  Minutes ago, South Korean health officials released their second coronavirus update for Tuesday: Another 974 confirmed cases raised the country’s total to 5,186. Meanwhile, South Korea’s death toll climbed to 34.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Public fury in SK so far has been directed at a strange, cult-like church called Shincheonji. Its leader issued an apology yesterday following reports that public prosecutors were being pressed to charge him and 11 other church leaders with murder. Now, investigators are looking into two church members who traveled to South Korea in January from Wuhan. One of them have tested positive, while the other tested negative, according to CNN.

  In Japan, another case was reported in Tokyo Tuesday, along with two additional cases in Osaka, and six cases between Nagoya and Kyoto.

  Over in Europe, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said “we are ready for potential economic downside” as the UK faces a “national challenge” in defeating the virus.

  Johnson added: “I am very confident that Britain will get through it in good shape.”

  Asked about school closures, Johnson said “we don’t think schools should be closing in principle – they should stay open,” he said. But the public must follow the advice of Public Health England. However, given that children are actually considered “low risk” for COVID-19, Johnson said school closures might not fit into the government’s strategy. On Tuesday, cases in the UK climbed to 40.

  In France, the increasingly unpopular “President for the Rich” Emmanuel Macron has become the latest victim of coronavirus rumors, after the president reportedly caught a cold and tried to pull out of an event. He has now reportedly been cajoled into visiting a hospital ward in Paris to try and dispel rumors that he’s dying of pneumonia.

  In Iran, where the virus has killed at least 77 people (and more than 200 according to some reports), public health officials (at least those who haven’t already succumbed to the virus) confirmed that 2,336 cases have been counted. As case totals in Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Qatar, Oman, the UAE and Egypt climb, Iran’s regional neighbors have shut their borders and severed travel and trade links with the Islamic Republic. The head of Iran’s emergency medical services has become at least the fifth senior government official to be diagnosed with the virus after a senior advisor to the Ayatollah died yesterday. Additionally, 23 Iranian MPs were among the new cases on Tuesday.

  As more companies restrict employee travel, Google on Tuesday told the bulk of staff at its European headquarters in Dublin have been asked to work from home after a staffer reportedly caught the flu.

  As more countries cancelled cultural and sporting events across Europe, the head of European football’s government body said Tuesday that the Euro 2020 soccer tournament would move ahead as planned.

  “You don’t know how many concerns we have when we organize a big competition […] We have security concerns, we have political instability concerns and one of those concerns is the virus. We are dealing with it and we are confident that we can deal with it,” said UEFA President Aleksander Čeferin at a presser in Amsterdam.

  As the total number of cases in Spain climbs to 129, a person in Gibraltar has tested positive, the first case identified in the British territory on the southern coast of Spain.

  Thailand has imposed compulsory self-quarantine on travelers arriving from hot zones in Asia, the Middle East and Europe following a spate of deaths in the country.

  But now that the G7 communique has dashed the market’s hopes, get ready for another wild day.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 03/03/2020 – 18:48

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• Macau Gaming Revenue Collapses 87.8% In February
  Macau Gaming Revenue Collapses 87.8% In February

  Just as we saw happen with auto sales  in China, Macau’s gaming revenue collapsed in February as a result of China grinding to a halt while the entire country remains mostly in lockdown as a result of the coronavirus spread.

  Macau businesses closed for 15 days to help control the spread of the virus, but it cost them. Gross gaming revenue for February was just 3.1 billion patacas ($386.5 million), a 87.8% fall from 2019. Analysts were predicting the pain ahead of time, estimating for a median of a 90% drop, according to Bloomberg. 

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Macau, the world’s largest gambling hub, had its government suspend casino operations from February 5th to about February 19th. The epicenter was already dealing with falling revenue numbers from 2019 – and this closure just adds insult to injury. It was the longest closure on record, second only to a 33 hour shutdown that occurred as a result of a typhoon in 2018. 

  When business resumed around February 20th, foot traffic at casinos was still weak. China continued to halt visas to Macau and transportation remained restricted. 

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Analysts continue to see the near-term outlook as “murky”. JP Morgan estimates a 24% decrease in gross gaming revenue for the year, based on a 70% drop in March and a 35% decline in the second quarter. 

  The same analysts said in a March 1 note: “We do not think COVID-19 will curb gamblers’ enthusiasm in a sustainable way, so its impact on the industry’s sustainable earnings power should be limited.”

  It continued: “Looking at the glass half-full, we feel it could have been worse given the extensive level of disruption suffered.”

  Yeah, good thinking. After all, revenues could have been down 100%.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 03/03/2020 – 01:00

• Why The Coming Economic Collapse Will Not Be Caused By Covid-19
  Why The Coming Economic Collapse Will Not Be Caused By Covid-19

  Authored by Matthew Ehret via Off-Guardian.org,

  With last week’s collapse in the stock market, the internet has been set ablaze with discussion of a new crash looming on the horizon (even with today’s record-breaking point-gain in the Dow). The fact that such a chain reaction collapse was only kept at bay due to massive liquidity injections by the Federal Reserve’s overnight repo loans should not be ignored.

  These injections which began in September 2019, have grown to over $100 billion per night… all that to support the largest financial bubble in human history with global derivatives estimated at $1.2 quadrillion (20 times the global GDP!).

  Sadly economic illiteracy is so pervasive among today’s modern economists that the real reasons for this crisis have been entirely misdiagnosed with financial experts from CNN, to Forbes blaming the volatility on the spread of the Corona virus!

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  NOT THE CORONA VIRUS: THE REAL CAUSE OF THE ONCOMING FINANCIAL COLLAPSE.

  As refreshing as it is to hear candid criticisms of the system’s failure and even support for the restoration of Glass-Steagall bank separation from presidential candidates like Bernie Sanders, Tulsi Gabbard or even the lame Elisabeth Warren… we find that in each case, those candidates are on record supporting policies cooked up by the very same oligarchs they appear to despise in the form of the Green New Deal.

  In spite of what many of its progressive proponents would wish, such a global green reform would not only impose Malthusian depopulation upon nation states globally were it accepted, but would establish a the supranational authority of a technocratic managerial elite as enforcers of a “de-carbonization agenda”.

  Due to the rampant lack of comprehension of how this crisis was created such that such idiotic proposals as “green new deals” are now seriously being suggested as remedies to our current ills, a bit of history is in order.

  SOME NECESSARY BACKGROUND

  “The money changers have fled from their high seats in the temple of our civilization. We may now restore that temple to the ancient truths. The measure of the restoration lies in the extent to which we apply social values more noble than mere monetary profit.”

  – Franklin Delano Roosevelt, first Inaugural Address 1933

  Knowing that the “money changers” had only been able to create the great bubbles of the 1920s via their access to the deposits of the commercial banks, Franklin Roosevelt made the core of his battle against the abuses of Wall Street centre around a 1933 legislation entitled “Glass-Steagall”, named after the two federally elected officials who led the reform with FDR.

  This was a bill which forced the absolute separation of productive from speculative banking, guaranteeing via the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) only those commercial banking assets associated with the productive economy, but forcing any speculative losses arising from investment banking to be suffered by the gambler. The striking success of this law inspired other countries around the world to establish similar bank separation.

  Alongside principles of capital budgeting, public credit, parity pricing and a commitment to scientific and technological development, a dynamic had been created that would express the greatest hope for the world, and the greatest fear for the financial empire occupying the City of London and Wall Street.

  The death of John F. Kennedy ushered in a new age of pessimism and cultural irrationalism from which our society has never recovered. The destruction of a long term vision as exemplified by the space program, the St. Lawrence Seaway and the New Deal projects had resulted in a tendency within the population to increasingly look upon present pleasures as the only reality, and future goods as the mystical expression of the sum of present pleasures.

  In this new philosophical setting, so alien in previous epochs, money was permitted to act as a power unto itself for short term gains instead of serving the investments into the real productive wealth of society. With this new paradigm shift into the “now”, a new economic model was adopted to replace the industrial economic model which had proven itself in the years preceding and following World War II.

  The name for this system was “post-industrial monetarism”. This would be a system ushered in by Richard Nixon’s announcement of the destruction of the fixed-exchange rate Bretton Woods system and its replacement by the “floating rate” system of post 1971 fame.

  During that same fateful year of 1971, another ominous event took place: the formation of the Rothschild Inter-Alpha Group of banks under the umbrella of the Royal Bank of Scotland, which today controls upwards of 70% of the global financial system.

  The stated intention of this Group would be found in the 1983 speech by Lord Jacob Rothschild:

  “two broad types of giant institutions, the worldwide financial service company and the international commercial bank with a global trading competence, may converge to form the ultimate, all-powerful, many-headed financial conglomerate.”

  This policy demanded the destruction of the sovereign nation-state system and the imposition of a new feudal structure of world governance through the age-old scheme of controlling the money system on the one side, and playing on the vices of credulous fools who, by allowing their nations to be ruled by the belief that hedonistic market forces govern the world, would seal their own children’s doom.

  All the while, geopolitical structures foreign to the United States constitutional traditions were imposed by nests of Oxford-trained Rhodes Scholars and Fabians who converted America into a global “dumb giant” enforcing a neo colonial program under a “Anglo-US Special Relationship”. The Dulles brothers, McGeorge Bundy, Kissinger, and Bush all represent names that advanced this British directed plan throughout the 20th century.

  LONDON’S ‘BIG BANG’

  The great “liberalization” of world commerce began with a series of waves through the 1970s, and moved into high gear with the interest rate hikes of Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker in 1980-82, the effects of which both annihilated much of the small and medium sized entrepreneurs, opened the speculative gates into the “Savings and Loan” debacle and also helped cartelize mineral, food, and financial institutions into ever greater behemoths.

  Volcker himself described this process as the “controlled disintegration of the US economy” upon becoming Fed Chairman in 1978. The raising of interest rates to 20-21% not only shut down the life blood of much of the US economic base, but also threw the third world into greater debt slavery, as nations now had to pay usurious interest on US loans.

  In 1986, the City of London announced the beginning of a new era of economic irrationalism with Margaret Thatcher’s “Big Bang” deregulation. This wave of liberalization took the world by storm as it swept aside the separation of commercial, deposit and investment banking which had been the post-world war cornerstone in ensuring that the will of private finance would never again hold more sway than the power of sovereign nation-states.

  After decades of chipping away at the structure of regulation that FDR’s bold intervention into history had built, the “Big Bang” set a precedent for similar financial de-regulation into the “Universal Banking” model in other parts of the western world.

  THE DERIVATIVE TIME BOMB IS SET

  In September 1987, the 20-year foray into speculation resulted in a 23% collapse of the Dow Jones on October 19, 1987. Within hours of this crash, international emergency meetings had been convened with former JP Morgan tool Alan Greenspan introducing a “solution” which would have the future echoes of hyperinflation and fascism written all over it.

  “Creative financial instruments” was the Orwellian name given to the new financial asset popularized by Greenspan, but otherwise known as “derivatives”.

  New supercomputing technologies were increasingly used in this new venture, not as the support for higher nation building practices, and space exploration programs as their NASA origins intended, but would rather become perverted to accommodate the creation of new complex formulas which could associate values to price differentials on securities and insured debts that could then be “hedged” on those very spot and futures markets made possible via the destruction of the Bretton Woods system in 1971.

  So while an exponentially self-generating monster was created that could end nowhere but in a meltdown, “market confidence” rallied back in force with the new flux of easy money. The physical potential to sustain human life continued to plummet.

  NAFTA, THE EURO AND THE END OF HISTORY

  It is no coincidence that within this period, another deadly treaty was passed called the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). With this Agreement made law, protective programs that had kept North American factories in the U.S and Canada were struck down, allowing for the export of the lifeblood of highly skilled industrial workforce to Mexico where skills were low, technologies lower, and salaries lower still.

  With a stripping of its productive assets, North America became increasingly reliant on exporting cheap resources and services for its means of existence.

  Again, the physically productive powers of society would collapse, yet monetary profits in the ephemeral “now” would skyrocket. This was replicated in Europe with the creation of the Maastricht Treaty in 1992 establishing the Euro by 1994 while the “liberalization” process of Perestroika replicated this agenda in the former Soviet Union. While some personalities gave this agenda the name “End of History” and others “the New World Order”, the effect was the same.

  Universal Banking, NAFTA, Euro integration and the creation of the derivative economy in a space of just several years would induce a cartelization of finance through newly legalized mergers and acquisitions at a rate never before seen. The multitude of financial institutions that had existed in the early 1980s were absorbed into each other at great speed through the 1990s in true “survival of the fittest” fashion. No matter what level of regulation were attempted under this new structure, the degree of conflict of interest, and private political power was uncontrollable, as evidenced in the United States, by the shutdown of any attempt by Securities and Exchange Commission head Brooksley Born to fight the derivative cancer at its early stages.

  By 1999 a politically castrated Bill Clinton found himself signing into law a treaty authored by then Treasury Secretary Larry Summers known as the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, which would be the final nail in the coffin for the Glass-Steagall separation of commercial and investment banking in the United States.

  The new age of unregulated trading and creation of over-the-counter derivatives caused these strange financial instruments to grow from $60 trillion in 2000 to $600 trillion by 2008.

  THE 2000-2008 FRENZY

  With Glass-Steagall now removed, legitimate capital such as pension funds could be used to start a hedge to end all hedges. Billions were now poured into mortgage-backed securities (MBS), a market which had been artificially plunged to record-breaking interest rate lows of 1-2% for over a year by the US Federal Reserve making borrowing easy, and the returns on the investments into the MBSs obscene.

  The obscenity swelled as the values of the houses skyrocketed far beyond the real values to the tune of one hundred thousand dollar homes selling for 5-6 times that price within the span of several years.

  As long as no one assumed this growth was ab-normal, and the unpayable nature of the capital underlying the leveraged assets locked up in the now infamous “sub-primes” and other illegitimate debt obligations was ignored, then profits were supposed to just continue infinitely. Anyone who questioned this logic was considered a heretic by the latter-day priesthood.

  The stunning “success” of securitizing housing debts immediately induced a wave of sovereign wealth funds to come into prominence applying the same model that had been used in the case of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and collateralized debt obligations (CDO) to the debts of entire nations.

  The securitizing of bundled packages of sovereign debts that could then be infinitely leveraged on the de-regulated world markets would no longer be considered an act of national treason, but the key to easy money.

  CONCLUSION

  This is the system which died in 2008. Contrary to popular belief, nothing was actually resolved. For all the talk of an “FDR revival” under Obama, speculation wasn’t actually regulated under the Dodd-Frank Act or the Volker Rule of 2010. No productive credit was created to grow the real economy under a national mission as was the case in 1933-1938.

  Banks were not broken up while derivatives GREW by 40% with the new bubble concentrated in the corporate/household debt sector now collapsing. During this time, nation states continued to be stripped, as austerity was rammed down the throats of nations.

  It should be no surprise that in the midst of this despair, a creative alliance was consolidated in defense of the interests of sovereign nation states and humanity at large led by the leadership of Russia and China.

  This leadership took the form of the China-led Belt and Road Initiative which has grown to embrace over 130 countries today and looking more and more like an Asian-led version of the New Deal of the 1930s.

  Indeed, China’s capacity to unleash long term credit for thousands of international long term infrastructure projects was made possible by the fact that it was the only country on the globe which had not given up the principles of bank separation which were destroyed in every other nation.

  Very few western figures stood up to this self-induced destruction over the decades, but one notable exception here worth mentioning is the figure of the late American economist Lyndon LaRouche (1922-2019) who not only resisted this process for over four decades, but fought alongside the Schiller Institute to promote New Silk Road as early as 1996.

  With the 2016 Brexit and election of President Trump, a new wave of nationalist spirit has become a fire which the technocrats have lost their capacity to snuff out.

  Increasingly, the idea that nation-states have a power over the private banking system has become revived and discussion for reforming the now dead Trans-Atlantic system is increasingly shaped not by the calls for a “New World Order” as Sir Kissinger would have liked, but rather for a New Silk Road and a true New Deal.

  The Eurasian nations are already firmly committed to this new system, and if the west is to qualify morally to take part in this new epoch, then the first step will be a return to a Glass-Steagall.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 03/03/2020 – 00:00

• "It's Sad" – First Chinatowns, Now LA's Koreatown, 'Asianphobia' Crashes Food Sales Amid Coronavirus Fears
  “It’s Sad” – First Chinatowns, Now LA’s Koreatown, ‘Asianphobia’ Crashes Food Sales Amid Coronavirus Fears

  Pandemic fears grip the world as cases and deaths surge ex-China. Last month, we reported that Chinatowns around the globe were struck with a demand shock as consumers ditched Chinese restaurants for fear they could catch Covid-19. Eater LA says Los Angeles’ Koreatown has also seen plunging food sales as ‘Asianphobia’ rises with increasing virus cases in the US. 

  General Tso’s chicken has left a sour taste among consumers’ mouths as eating habits rapidly shift because of virus fear. From Australia to New York City to Toronto to England to San Francisco, Chinatowns around the world have had their food sales halved in the last month. Some restaurants warned if low traffic continues into the next quarter, their operations would have to be shuttered. 

  It’s not just Sinophobia that has consumers absolutely terrified that they could contract the virus if they are near a Chinese person, it’s now anyone who looks Asian, otherwise known as ‘Asianphobia.’ 

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Eater LA notes that on Friday a KBS America’s news story on Tuesday detailed how a Korean Airlines flight attendant with symptoms of the virus recently visited LA’s Koreatown turned out to be entirely false. Though, in the wake of the story, food sales of restaurants in the Central LA neighborhood centered near Eighth Street and Irolo Street, west of MacArthur Park, plunged. 

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  LA County Public Health Department stated in a presser on Thursday that no information suggests the flight attendant visited Koreatown. 

  Food sales at Han Bat Shul Lung Tang were halved last week because of the rumor. Hangari Kalguksu, a popular restaurant offering various noddle dishes, made a statement on Instagram that they hired a professional cleaning company to sanitize the restaurant, dismissing the virus rumor. 

  A trade group representing LA’s Koreatown restaurants said business conditions deteriorated last week on the rumor, contributed to a 50% decline in food sales. 

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  “In the Korean American community here, it [the rumor] went like wildfire,” Alex Won told AP News on Friday as he chowed down on a bowl of beef brisket soup at Han Bat Shul Lung Tang. “It’s sad.”

  Restaurants in LA’s Koreatown Reel Amid Coronavirus Rumor In a Koreatown restaurant known for its beef bone broth soup, the lunchtime crowd Friday was half its normal size. The reason was a virulent rumor about a customer with coronavirus. Han Bat Shul Lung Tang was one of fi… pic.twitter.com/yampUBGFb0

  — Punjabi Radio Los Angeles (@lapunjabiradio) February 29, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Won said he’s never seen Han Bat Shul Lung Tang “this empty, “adding that “there are always people here.”

  AP News notes that their interactions with various shop owners in Koreatown said business died overnight because of the rumor. 

  “It’s a bad rumor, but people like bad rumors,” said Jay Choi, manager of Hanshin Pocha.

  The streets of Koreatown last week and this weekend had people wearing masks, out of fear the virus is stealthily spreading on the West Coast. 

  State Assemblyman Kansen Chu, D-San Jose, said Chinatowns had taken severe economic losses as a result of Sinophobia. Now it appears, Asianphobia has claimed its next victim: LA’s Koreatown. 

  If community spreading across the US erupts, could the virus lead a bust of Asian eateries?

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 03/02/2020 – 23:40

• The Threat Of Nuclear War Between US & Russia Is Now At Its Greatest Since 1983
  The Threat Of Nuclear War Between US & Russia Is Now At Its Greatest Since 1983

  Authored by Scott Ritter, op-ed via RT.com,

  When the Commander of NATO says he is a fan of flexible first strike at the same time that NATO is flexing its military muscle on Russia’s border, the risk of inadvertent nuclear war is real.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  US Air Force Gen. Tod D Wolters told the Senate this week he “is a fan of flexible first strike” regarding NATO’s nuclear weapons, thereby exposing the fatal fallacy of the alliance’s embrace of American nuclear deterrence policy.

  It was one of the most remarkable yet underreported exchanges in recent Senate history. Earlier this week, during the testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee of General Tod Wolters, the commander of US European Command and, concurrently, as the Supreme Allied Commander in Europe (SACEUR) also the military head of all NATO armed forces, General Wolters engaged in a short yet informative exchange with Senator Deb Fischer, a Republican from the state of Nebraska. 

  Following some initial questions and answers focused on the alignment of NATO’s military strategy with the 2018 National Defense Strategy of the US, which codified what Wolters called “the malign influence on behalf of Russia” toward European security, Senator Fischer asked about the growing recognition on the part of NATO of the important role of US nuclear deterrence in keeping the peace.

  “We all understand that our deterrent, the TRIAD, is the bedrock of the security of this country,” Fischer noted.

  “Can you tell us about what you are hearing…from our NATO partners about this deterrent?”

  Wolters responded by linking the deterrence provided to Europe by the US nuclear TRIAD with the peace enjoyed on the European continent over the past seven decades. Fischer asked if the US nuclear umbrella was “vital in the freedom of NATO members”; Wolters agreed.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Remarkably, Wolters linked the role of nuclear deterrence with the NATO missions in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere outside the European continent. NATO’s mission, he said, was to “proliferate deterrence to the max extent practical to achieve greater peace.”

  Then came the piece de resistance of the hearing.

  “What are your views, Sir,” Senator Fischer asked, “of adopting a so-called no-first-use policy. Do you believe that that would strengthen deterrence?”

  General Wolters’ response was straight to the point.

  “Senator, I’m a fan of flexible first use policy.”

  Under any circumstance, the public embrace of a “flexible first strike” policy regarding nuclear weapons employment by the Supreme Allied Commander in Europe should generate widespread attention. When seen in the context of the recent deployment by the US of a low-yield nuclear warhead on submarine-launched ballistic missiles carried onboard a Trident submarine, however, Wolters’ statement is downright explosive. Add to the mix the fact the US recently carried out a wargame where the US Secretary of Defense practiced the procedures for launching this very same “low yield” weapon against a Russian target during simulated combat between Russia and NATO in Europe, and the reaction should be off the charts. And yet there has been deafening silence from both the European and US press on this topic.

  There is, however, one party that paid attention to what General Wolters had to say–Russia. In a statement to the press on February 25–the same date as General Wolters’ testimony, Sergey Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister stated that “We note with concern that Washington’s new doctrinal guidelines considerably lower the threshold of nuclear weapons use.” Lavrov added that this doctrine had to be viewed in the light “of the persistent deployment of US nuclear weapons on the territory of some NATO allies and the continued practice of the so-called joint nuclear missions.”

  Rather than embracing a policy of “flexible first strike”, Lavrov suggested that the US work with Russia to re-confirm “the Gorbachev-Reagan formula, which says that there can be no winners in a nuclear war and it should never be unleashed.” This proposal was made 18 months ago, Lavrov noted, and yet the US has failed to respond.

  Complicating matters further are the ‘Defender 2020’ NATO military exercises underway in Europe, involving tens of thousands of US troops in one of the largest training operations since the end of the Cold War. The fact that these exercises are taking place at a time when the issue of US nuclear weapons and NATO’s doctrine regarding their employment against Russia is being actively tracked by senior Russian authorities only highlights the danger posed.

  On February 6, General Valery Gerasimov, the Russian Chief of Staff, met with General Wolters to discuss ‘Defender 2020’ and concurrent Russian military exercises to be held nearby to deconflict their respective operations and avoid any unforeseen incidents. This meeting, however, was held prior to the reports about a US/NATO nuclear wargame targeting Russian forces going public, and prior to General Wolters’ statement about “flexible first use” of NATO nuclear weapons.

  In light of these events, General Gerasimov met with French General Fançois Lecointre, the Chief of the Defense Staff, to express Russia’s concerns over NATO’s military moves near the Russian border, especially the Defender 2020 exercise which was, General Gerasimov noted, “held on the basis of anti-Russian scenarios and envisage training for offensive operations.”

  General Gerasimov’s concerns cannot be viewed in isolation, but rather must be considered in the overall historical context of NATO-Russian relations. Back in 1983, the then-Soviet Union was extremely concerned about a series of realistic NATO exercises, known as ‘Able Archer ‘83,’ which in many ways mimicked the modern-day Defender 2020 in both scope and scale. Like Defender 2020, Able Archer ‘83 saw the deployment of tens of thousands of US forces into Europe, where they assumed an offensive posture, before transitioning into a command post exercise involving the employment of NATO nuclear weapons against a Soviet target.

  So concerned was Moscow about these exercises, and the possibility that NATO might use them as a cover for an attack against Soviet forces in East Germany, that the Soviet nuclear forces were placed on high alert. Historians have since observed that the threat of nuclear war between the US and the USSR was at that time the highest it had been since the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962.

  US and NATO officials would do well to recall the danger to European and world security posed by the “Able Archer ‘83” exercise and the potential for Soviet miscalculations when assessing the concerns expressed by General Gerasimov today. The unprecedented concentration of offensive NATO military power on Russia’s border, coupled with the cavalier public embrace by General Wolters of a “flexible first strike” nuclear posture by NATO, has more than replicated the threat model presented by Able Archer ’83. In this context, it would not be a stretch to conclude that the threat of nuclear war between the US and Russia is the highest it has been since Able Archer ’83.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 03/02/2020 – 23:20

• Here Are The 5 Richest Men Of The 20th Century
  Here Are The 5 Richest Men Of The 20th Century

  Nikolai Romanov. Muammar Ghaddafi. John Rockefeller…

  What do these three men have in common? As it turns out, they were all three recently included in a list of “Five Richest Men of the 20th Century” following a quick study by LearnBonds.com.

  The total list is as follows: 5) Ghaddafi, 4) Mir Osman Ali Khan, 3) Romanov, 2) John D Rockefeller, 1) Andrew Carnegie.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Their aggregate net worth, adjusted for inflation, would amount to $1.62 trillion in 2019 dollars. In 1913, that would have worked out to a fortune of $63 billion – an unimaginable sum at the time. To arrive at these numbers, LearnBonds used the CPI index.

  The valuation was arrived at by incorporating the consumer price index change over the years as provided by the Usinflationcalculator.com. To calculate 1913 wealth in US dollars the formula 2020 Price x (1913 CPI / 2020 CPI) was used.

  Historical records show that Andrew Carnegie, a Scottish-American industrialist, was the richest man in the world back in 1913. But if his wealth were adjusted into today’s dollars, he would still occupy the top spot with a net worth of $419.8 billion. His vast fortune was credited to his legendary decision to sell Carnegie Steel Company to JP Morgan for $480 million in 1901. From the sale, Carnegie also received $230 million in gold bonds. Carnegie left most of his estate to charity after his death in 1919.

  Since wealth inequality is such a big theme in this year’s presidential election (everybody who watched Wednesday’s debate probably remembers the drubbing Bloomberg took just for being a humble self-made billionaire), LearnBonds also thought it would be informative to compare the wealth of America’s ‘Robber Barons’ to their contemporary counterparts – the tech barons who dominate Silicon Valley and the American economy.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Though there’s little doubt that the wealth gap has grown since the financial crisis thanks, in large part, to the Fed’s monetary stimulus which heavily inflated asset prices from their post-crisis lows.

  But for everybody who complains about Jeff Bezos, just remember: wealth concentration still hasn’t reached ‘Gilded Age’ levels.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 03/02/2020 – 23:00

• All Of A Sudden, People All Over America Are Prepping Like Crazy
  All Of A Sudden, People All Over America Are Prepping Like Crazy

  Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

  I can’t remember a time when we have seen such widespread “panic buying” all over the nation.  Today I spoke with someone that just visited the closest Wal-Mart in this area, and I was told that there are empty shelves all over the store.  There are very few canned goods left, some of the most essential medications have been cleaned out, and there was nothing left in the long-term storable food section at all. 

  Of course similar things are being reported at major retail stores all across the United States.  All of a sudden, fear of COVID-19 has motivated thousands upon thousands of Americans to start prepping like crazy.  But most of the population is still not taking this crisis seriously enough. 

  As the number of confirmed cases all over the world continues to rise at an exponential rate, what are the stores going to look like when most of the country finally realizes that they should be prepping for an extended pandemic?

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Over the past several days, this coronavirus outbreak has escalated significantly.

  From Saturday to Sunday, the number of confirmed cases in Italy jumped by 50 percent…

  Italy reported a 50% increase in coronavirus cases Sunday, as the US further restricted travel and the famed La Scala opera house closed.

  Italy’s Civil Protection Authority reported the country now has 1,694 confirmed coronavirus cases, up from 1,128 confirmed cases on Saturday. Thirty-four people have died.

  And in Germany, the number of confirmed cases actually doubled in just 24 hours.

  Here in the United States, confirmed cases are now popping up all over the nation, and we are being warned to brace for a “boom” of confirmed cases…

  A “boom” of confirmed cases of the coronavirus that has now killed more than 3,000 people around the world — including two in the U.S. — could already be racing across America despite ramped-up efforts to contain the outbreak, experts say.

  The spread of the virus by “community transmissions” is an indication that we could indeed be looking at the tip of the iceberg,” Ogbonnaya Omenka, an assistant professor and public health specialist at Butler University’s College of Pharmacy and Health Sciences, told USA TODAY on Sunday.

  Overall, the number of confirmed cases outside of China has more than tripled over the past week.  If we continue to see that sort of a growth rate, there will be more than a million confirmed cases outside of China just five weeks from now.

  I don’t think that it will happen that quickly, and let us pray that we don’t hit that number at all, but right now this outbreak is starting to spiral out of control.

  As fear of this virus rises, grocery stores from coast to coast are stocking up on essential supplies in an effort “to prevent shortages”…

  Now grocers are working to prevent shortages and preparing for a spike in demand for disinfectants and long-lasting items such as pasta and canned food. Some are ramping up orders from suppliers.

  “This is like a natural disaster, but it’s an illness,” said Doug Baker, vice president of industry relations at FMI, a trade group for food retailers.

  In the short-term, hopefully things won’t be too bad.

  But without a doubt global supply chains are becoming extremely strained due to the widespread shutdowns inside of China, and that has led one analyst to predict “empty shelves in Target and Walmart as early as April”…

  “Literally, empty shelves in Target and Walmart as early as April,” predicts David Iwinski, a local China business consultant who once ran a factory in China.

  Most retail stores are likely to have shortages because the coronavirus in China is hampering the manufacture of products shipped to America.

  If there are things that you need to go buy, you need to do it now, because thousands upon thousands of Americans are already storming the stores.

  In Los Angeles, a local Costco was quickly raided of the most essential supplies when the store opened on Saturday morning…

  At a Costco Wholesale market in Los Angeles Saturday morning, a swarm of shoppers loaded up carts with essential items to prepare for a possible period of quarantine.

  According to the chain, water, paper towels and Clorox disinfecting wipes were the most in-demand products.

  And up in northern California, photos of completely empty shelves over the weekend were rapidly shared on social media…

  On social media, residents further north shared shocking photos and videos from Costco centers in San Francisco.

  Shelves were depleted of tinned food, while some shoppers climbed up onto shelving in order to reach remaining supplies of rice.

  Of course the exact same thing is happening in other states as well.

  In Washington, one local resident claimed that “thousands of people” have been descending on the local Costco centers…

  I live in the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak in Washington State. My advice for those elsewhere – go to Costco now. Thousands of people at local stores yesterday – not where you want to be if there is a virus spreading. Glad I went a week ago.

  And one video that has been very widely shared shows hundreds of people lined up at a Costco in Brooklyn before it even opened in the morning.

  Up to this point, only six people have died from the virus in the United States.

  So what will things look like if thousands of people start dying?

  Already, there is a worldwide shortage of protective face masks.  In fact, things have gotten so bad that Surgeon General Jerome Adams posted a tweet demanding that people stop buying them…

  The surgeon general has a message for people who want to run out and stockpile masks to combat the coronavirus – don’t.

  “Seriously people – STOP BUYING MASKS!” Surgeon General Jerome Adams tweeted. “They are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus, but if healthcare providers can’t get them to care for sick patients, it puts them and our communities at risk!”

  Personally, I don’t understand his logic.  If the masks are not effective, then why do healthcare providers need them?

  Yes, the masks have limited effectiveness against a virus that is so easy to catch.  But at least they are better than nothing.

  The time of “the perfect storm” is here, and this virus has the potential to greatly accelerate our problems.

  We still don’t know if this will be the great global pandemic that so many have warned about, but Bill Gates certainly seems to believe that this may be the “once-in-a-century pathogen we’ve been worried about”…

  Billionaire and Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates said the coronavirus that has killed at least 2,859 people and infected more than 83,700 globally may be the “once-in-a-century pathogen we’ve been worried about.”

  “I hope it’s not that bad, but we should assume it will be until we know otherwise,” Gates wrote in an article published Friday in The New England Journal of Medicine.

  Personally, I am still hoping that this outbreak will start to subside once warmer weather arrives.

  But so far nothing is slowing this virus down.  As I mentioned above, the total number of cases outside of China has more than tripled over the last seven days, and that is a huge red flag.

  If you need to get to the store, do it now.  Because at the rate that people are raiding the stores, there could soon be shortages of some of the most important supplies.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 03/02/2020 – 22:40

• Fox News Crushes Prime-Time With Highest Ratings In 24-Year History 
  Fox News Crushes Prime-Time With Highest Ratings In 24-Year History 

  Fox News dominated the basic cable news industry in February, according to a new report, which specifies the conservative news network hit the highest ratings in its 24-year history.

  A meltdown of leftist cable news networks has allowed Fox News to obtain the highest ratings ever to become the most-watched channel in all of basic cable for the 44th consecutive month, reported Nielsen Media Research.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Fox averaged 3.53 million viewers, followed by MSNBC’s 1.78 million, and CNN’s 1.05 million for the month.

  Fox’s prime time hosts, Sean Hannity, Tucker Carlson, and Laura Ingraham, had the top shows in all of cable.

  Hannity had the most-watched show, finishing the month with about 4.3 million viewers, while Carlson was second with 4.115 million and Ingraham third with 3.6 million.

  Ingraham is the first woman in all of cable news to reach an average viewership of more than 3 million views on any given month.

  Coverage of President Trump’s State of the Union address on Feb 4 was impressive for Fox, averaged an audience of more than 11.6 million viewers.

  Fox had 13 of the highest-rated shows for the month in all of cable.

  Year-over-year trends show Fox’s viewership increased by 35% this month while CNN fell 3%, and MSNBC plunged 9%.

  The increase in viewership for Fox suggests more and more people are turning off liberal media and gravitating towards conservative networks. 

  Fox is dominating all of cable news as its primary left-leaning competitors are imploding.

  “CNN is suffering a credibility crisis as viewership is in a mass exodus, fleeing the fake news network to more conservative networks, such as Fox News. There appears to be no plan of action by CNN or liberal media to fix the hemorrhaging of viewership, indicating the trend will persist through 2020,” we noted several months ago.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 03/02/2020 – 22:20

• This Video Shows How Far Those In Power Will Go To Maintain Control Of A Quarantine
  This Video Shows How Far Those In Power Will Go To Maintain Control Of A Quarantine

  Authored by J.G.Martinez G. via The Organic Prepper blog,

  In our modern world, information is power. We know all that. Whether if some information we find allows us to sleep at night, that´s a different question.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Technology has made readily available information we never thought could be possible. This has allowed the shaping of our society in ways we never imagined.

  Under severe circumstances, those in control will take extreme measures to keep it. This is, has been, and very likely will continue being a norm. Losing control is the worst nightmare for politicians. They know, that once public law enforcement organizations have been overrun, they will be targeted. Should they have their conscience clean, that wouldn´t happen. But in every society of the world, with the extremely few exceptions, the norm seems to be these politicians don´t have it so clean. Therefore, they will do whatever they have to do, to avoid losing their grip.

  How is China maintaining control?

  Now let´s analyze Chinese idiosyncrasy. Their culture has been going on for thousands of years. They are right to be proud. Whether that strange and modern concept of “human rights” was respected, it´s not part of the equation. Poor people had “human” rights thousands of years ago? I am not by any means an expert in history; but I would say, most of the actual “empires” are on a basis of total lack of respect for individual rights.

  How is it possible that 1.5 billion people are kept under control so they don´t take over the status quo? It´s a mystery for me. But the future is unpredictable and can be really surprising. Things can change. The only constant is change.

  We never can underestimate how far the system can go, just to avoid that huge beast called “the masses” getting out of control. This being said, I am going to describe what is in the videos of the link I submit here. This is my personal opinion, strictly. I´m totally responsible.

  Warning: The video has some strong violent scenes including female mistreating.

  Expect violent measures

  Never been in the military, but I know most of the uniformed forces all over the world some kind of protocol to counterattack every possible contingency. That is something great. Law-abiding citizens will applaud this. Including me of course. But things are different when the contingency is becoming increasingly…threatening.

  And this is exactly what seems to be happening. The reactions are extremely violent. The actions are extreme, and it´s hard to understand, if everything is under control, then why this footage is online? Despite all the censorship? These are the dystopian methods used by a desperate government.

  Remember, the doctor who first alerted about this outbreak was thrown in a corner to die. It was a plain death sentence. I don´t know in China, but in Venezuela, the time and effort needed to provide someone with the means to be a real, prepared and competent doctor in medicine (not like those posers in Cuba who just want to get off the island to ask for asylum and going to work in someone´s restaurant) is huge: 7 years, and 10 years with an specialty. This shameless contempt for human life, once the owner of such life decides to make a move against whatever affects the interests of the totalitarian regime in charge, is a trait that sooner or later will be the nemesis of such soulless machinery of propaganda, built to feed decadent bureaucrats. Those who have seen how creepy the uniformity of certain “party leadership” is, will understand perfectly what I intend to say.

  Maybe some of those watching this video could understand the methodology.

  I don´t, and please don´t ask me to do so.  They act so violently, for being authorities, that one could think they seem to be on the verge of collective hysteria.

  The video shows, in the first 20 seconds officers with masks dragging people out and immobilizing people on the floor. People are chased on the streets, by officers with sticks. Carried on hanging from legs and arms, by personnel with full-body hazmat suits.

  An “officer” hits with both fists several times to a woman. Obviously he loses it after the woman reacts badly to his requests, and he starts throwing fists like a little girl. Shame on him.

  Incredibly, a building gets its steel gates welded, shutting it closed for good. Officers in white hazmat suits barricade (on the outside!) a building gate. A pile of dirt and debris is found burying another gate. All of these buildings were suspicious of being infected with the disease.

  Officers are seen fighting over people on the floor. They even kick the faces of some citizens. I know people can be annoying, but these officers don´t act like they´re controlling a disease: they look like thugs mobbing someone. I mean, how much time a trained officer lasts getting someone handcuffed? Dragging people on the streets is their idea of “crisis management”?

  Another outrageous image is several people handcuffed, but chained by the waist to each other, just like circus monkeys. Jeez, I don´t even like monkeys being chained like that.

  Desperate authorities are dangerous

  Just to be clear, this is NOT a political article, God forbid it. This is a small exhibition of how the desperation of authorities can lead to very dangerous situations for us citizens. No matter where you are. Or even who you are.

  Just imagine why I´m so concerned. I´m a foreigner in this country. The only person I care about, and the reason I am here, is a kid. I don´t have a fridge. I have to eat outside, or open a can otherwise.

  Just think someday an outbreak makes its way here, and some sort of quarantine is enforced. What the heck am I going to do? Of course, I have some cans and water stored. A small couple of flashlights, and some other stuff. But I won´t be able to make it more than a week, and that is with luck.

  What would happen if I have to defy the quarantine, get out the 7 blocks to the next supermarket, to buy some food (if there even is food left)…and a bunch of police throws me in a patrol car with other (possibly infected) guys?

  If I never was exposed or contaminated, now I´m done. My only way to escape would be, to fight back (and with the risk they take my papers off me) and run. No one is going to get to look for me in any hospital or some other place. I would be on my own. (This book is an excellent guide to being prepared for quarantines so you can stay out of harm’s way.)

  This is starting to be a situation that has been slowly occupying spaces in my mind. After all, 5 years ago I was sitting in my living room, enjoying a cold beer while playing videogames with my kiddo and torturing my annoying neighbors with the full power of my home theater.

  5 months from here, God knows what will happen.

  Do you see why I´m so concerned about this stuff? It´s amazing this has not made viral yet. The rest of the world (especially some countries in Latin America) seems not to give a f*** about the virus.

  My brother-in-law is a really, really nice guy. I appreciate him a lot. I´m almost 20 years his senior but I see him as my (another) younger brother, indeed. He´s a simple man, a country boy now living in a huge city. Sent him the video and he said, immediately “Jose, this is serious. We will have to look for a place without so many people around! Your cottage would be the ideal place!! If you have some plan let me know.”

  Thanks for your reading, and I look forward to your comments.

  Be safe.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 03/02/2020 – 22:00

• China Warns Of Looming "Locust Invasion" As Coronavirus Outbreak Fades
  China Warns Of Looming “Locust Invasion” As Coronavirus Outbreak Fades

  Is the world’s largest constitutionally atheist state facing a revival of the 10 biblical plagues of Egypt? It’s starting to look that way.

  Just days after Beijing promised to send a a 1,000-duck “army” to Pakistan to help farmers fend off one of the largest locust swarms in decades, senior government officials warned that China could soon face an “invasion” of desert locusts and urged local authorities to prepare for battle, even as the country struggles to get back on its feet after being shut down for so long.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  The locusts are reportedly approaching China via Pakistan and India. Swarms could enter Tibet from Pakistan and India, or the southwestern province of Yunnan through Myanmar, depending on climate conditions, the notice said. Swarms could also fly across Kazakhstan and into China’s Xinjiang region, according to Reuters.

  To be sure, the National Forestry and Grassland Administrations said on its website that the risk of the swarm entering China and attacking farms is “low”. But if the swarms do arrive, Beijing will be limited by a paucity of knowledge about the locusts’ migratory patterns and techniques to fight them (aside from the ducks, apparently).

  Swarms could also attack the southwestern province of Yunnan via Myanmar. It all depends on climate conditions. Swarms could also fly across Kazakhstan and into China’s Xinjiang region.

  Chinese customs officials at Khunjerab, a crossing between China and Pakistan in southwestern Xinjiang, have started monitoring the surrounding 2 km for locusts. They inspect vehicles crossing the border and, if they find locusts or locust eggs hidden, they destroy them.

  The desert locusts have already ravaged crops and pastures in several countries in Africa, as well as India and Pakistan.

  Thankfully, as we mentioned above, Beijing has a secret weapon:

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 03/02/2020 – 21:40

• Google's Creepy Line Exposed
  Google’s Creepy Line Exposed

  Authored by M G via The Burning Platform blog,

  The Creepy Line is a particularly sinister term used in an unguarded remark by former Google CEO Eric Schmidt in 2010. In hindsight, what is most disturbing about the comment is how casually he explained Google’s policy regarding invading the privacy of its customers and clients.

  “Google policy on a lot of these things,” Schmidt says about 45 seconds into the introduction, “is to get right up to the creepy line and not cross it.” Time pointer needed.

  The Creepy Line is an 80-minute documentary available through several options available here. 

  For now, it is available for free at Amazon Prime, but I’m not sure how long it will be offered there considering many current concerns regarding censorship of anti-establishment themes on various social media platforms.

  This film offers a very frank look at the number one source of news in our country: Facebook and Google.

  Early in the film, you will discover how Google acquired an enormous and permanent cache of data about users. Initially, the data was used to refine search algorithms used to help index the websites and information uploaded to the world wide web. Now, however, it is used to fine-tune ads and content that most suits your interests, storing the information to better provide content suggestions for you. But, this film will give you a really disquieting idea (at least it should) about what else they may be doing with that data.

  Initially, Google was simply the most popular Search engine, basically the largest available “indexing” algorithm on the net. Then, Google came up with Google Chrome, a browser, to track and log not only what you look for but also where you go and every keystroke you make while there. In fact, Google realized they could serve you best if they know what you are doing even when offline, which is why the the Android system can track you everywhere you take your phone. With all the free apps available and used globally, Google has a very accurate picture of what everyone’s daily life looks like anywhere in the world.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  At intervals during the presentation, Professor Jordan Peterson offers insight from his own experience with social media and agenda setting.  For those unfamiliar with Peterson, he was propelled into fame when he very publicly refused to use the new gender pronouns approved by Canada’s Political Correct Policy. Peterson’s outspoken refusal to yield to the thought police led to him being interviewed as being a spokesman for the Millennial Mindset, especially their willingness to accept new technology without questioning it.

  “These are all free services but obviously they’re not,” notes Peterson, during his commentary, as he discusses the impact upon his life his sudden notoriety and the negative publicity Google and You Tube caused for him. He discusses his own battle with depression as well as insights into his daughter’s experiences with social media, which gives him special psychiatric insight into teenage (millennial) angst, perhaps.  Some may find his frank openness about the issues off-putting, but he comes across to me as a man who has walked through hell and doesn’t want to talk about it, but has decided he will do so, if you are interested. I find Peterson’s point of view extremely relevant, especially in light of the the news regarding Peak Prosperity’s de-platforming today and the implications for our own sources of information going forward.

  He is not the main speaker during the film, but Peterson does an excellent job explaining how the surveillance business model works.  This leads to a discussion of how Google Maps, Google Docs, and the use of Gmail (even drafts of emails you don’t send!) combine together to form and shape your thoughts and behavior, similar to a bunch of people in a control room with dials which monitor and control your every interaction with the world. (15:28)

  Less than ten minutes into the movie, you might have already decided to turn to non-Google search engines, but there is no hope of your retrieving any information they already have on you. It belongs to them, a legal point discussed several times during the presentation.

  We already know Facebook censors conservative views and downplays trending stories favorable to conservatives, and the movie assures us Google and You Tube work on similar algorithms. Algorithmic choices must be based on something, but to remain supposedly objective, nothing should be completely filtered out, only put into some sort of rational order. Rational could be chronological, or most viewed, or relevant, for instance, but for that rational variable in the algorithm, something will come first.

  As long as nothing is excluded, albeit, as long as you can find them on the list somewhere, there is at least a rational reason for their placement and the semblance of objectivity is retained.  Whether you agree with the rationality is not relevant at this point.  Except, that we know filters are restricting information for very irrational reasons.

  In the discussion, we discover Facebook Social Engineers insert stories into news feeds which they want people to see. This means not only is Facebook a gatekeeper for your news, they are also propaganda pushers. The concerns that Facebook could easily influence elections by sending messages to certain types of individuals most likely to be influenced deserves at least some discussion by some governmental agency, doesn’t it?

  Well? the discussion with Zuckerberg during the film shows his disregard for users’ privacy concerns.  That CYA attitude is obvious throughout when we are reminded of all the “terms of use” we have agreed to over the years.

  Facebook and these other internet entities claiming company rights without accountability are communities without voting citizens. Since the majority of voters claim to get their news from Facebook or Google associated sources, this is an issue people should realize really will impact our ability to use social media for reliable news.  We have no access to details concerning how decisions are made regarding censorship on any of these platforms.  We have every reason to believe they are not necessarily rational or definitely are not ethical. While Facebook seemed at one time to be a wonderful way to connect humanity across the world, it brought with that connection an overabundance of unintended consequences which may introduce a new Dark Age.

  Google and Facebook are a kind of corporate partnership which has unprecedented power and influence over public opinion. Psychologist and Google critic Robert Epstein (a large contributor to the documentary) found that, by sheer coincidence, the day after he wrote an article called “Could Google Tilt a Close Election?” he couldn’t access the Internet through any browser. If you are time-constrained and hope for the meat of the matter, around the 34-minute point, Peterson discusses his reaction to Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt’s comment about getting close to the creepy line but not crossing it.  He suggests cultures once taught children to stay away from the creepy line, but that somehow, digital capability has altered the understanding of what the creepy line represents.

  The movie discusses the concepts behind Search Engine Manipulation Effect (SEME) which has powerful implications since 90% of searchers select the first on the list. At 38:30 a good introduction to the impact of Negativity Bias helps explain the ability to suppress ideas deemed “negative” in public opinion.

  “If they have this kind of power then democracy is an illusion,” says Roger Epstein.

  “There have to be in place numerous safeguards to make sure not only that they don’t exercise these powers but that they can’t exercise these powers.” 

  At 44:28, you will discover that the Federal Government runs on Google and when you learn how much of our nations classified data is trusted to Google, it should make most of us even more aware of our lapses in internet discernment in days gone by.

  I believe, it is vital to note the film was made by the makers of “Clinton Cash.”

  And Google executive Eric Schmidt, infamous for his “creepy line” comment, became part of the Clinton campaign in 2016 but by then, we’d all come to realize there was something a little creepy about Google, anyway, hadn’t we? While the video does provide a lot of anecdotal evidence with some scientific (social statistics) analysis to support the idea that internet gatekeepers introduce liberal bias, the evidence is sketchy about how internet platforms are monetized and what we might do to resist the influence these tech giants possess in our government institutions.

  This is a discussion  we should force our federal servants to have because those agencies have become part of the hiring grounds for big tech companies.  They simply hire influence.  It is a discussion we do need to have as we face the direction technology is pushing us toward: Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Artificially Intelligent Decisions.

  Instead of War Games’ discovery there is no way to win, AI may decide nobody really has a need to know who won. Google got caught before favoring its own commercial services by antitrust regulators, which is discussed in the movie. Assuming those who control Google might very well show favor in politics is a valid worry when considering the ability of many of their hired “monitors” to delete or insert content based on their own bias at will. (The video discusses several known instances of this happening.)

  Unfortunately, there is not an obvious solution, but one suggestion is that Google, Facebook, YouTube, et al be legally defined as media companies and be subject to the same legal burdens which apply to mainstream media corporations. In other words, the suggestion is that they be held accountable for their actions. These enormous companies have created algorithms that in turn have created sorting systems that attempt to direct and control (quite successfully) every aspect of our lives, without our even being fully aware of their impact on our decisions.

  It is time we educate ourselves before we become “re-educated.”

  Overall, I think The Creepy Line is a good way to begin a much needed public debate, but it is at least a way to get yourself educated a bit about why you should send a donation to The Burning Platform today and thank Jim Quinn for continuing to host a wide variety of contributors here at this page while he can.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 03/02/2020 – 21:20

• Boeing Bets Big On Max Production Restart By Mid-Year With New Hires
  Boeing Bets Big On Max Production Restart By Mid-Year With New Hires

  Boeing is making a massive bet with the hiring of new mechanics for its shuttered 737 Max production line that a restart could begin imminently, reported Bloomberg. 

  Max production lines were suspended last month as there was no clear pathway for the planes to return to the skies via the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).

  Boeing started hiring hundreds of new employees late last year with the expectation production would resume by mid-2020. In early December, Boeing hired 115 new mechanics to its Pacific Northwest manufacturing hub. Another 122 were brought on in early January and another 143 by mid-month. IAM District 751, Boeing’s largest labor union, said the plane manufacturer had hired 730 new workers, a figure that is entirely net increases, despite 31 mechanics leaving. 

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Boeing’s labor and supply chain management expenses related to the Max have been soaring since the planes were grounded about a year ago, and the company incurred even higher costs associated with production shutdowns last month. About 3,000 employees remain on payroll to avoid a fracturing of its supply chain. 

  Boeing’s timetable for a mid-year production restart could be a little too optimistic with planes grounded. The FAA has provided limited details on when the aircraft will return to the skies. 

  There are some signs that Boeing’s restart could be nearing, or maybe it’s just more gambling by its suppliers: Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc., Boeing’s top supplier with 3,200 employees, said it would resume Max fuselage production at the end of March.

  Ken Herbert, an analyst with Canaccord Genuity, said 200 of the recent Boeing hiring’s had been mechanics for the Max production line. Herbert said other workers had been shifted to other product lines but would be diverted back to Max production when restart occurs.

  Doug Alder, a Boeing spokesman, told Bloomberg that “we’ve maintained our staffing levels on the 737 program to focus on factory initiatives, while temporarily assigning some employees.” 

  Getting Max production off the ground by mid-year could be a difficult task for Boeing, and the number of resources it’s allocating into its supply chain for immediate restart could prove disastrous if delays continue.

  Hints of new delays are coming from Southwest and United Airlines, who have extended Max cancelations until late August to the early September timeframe.

  And more issues are developing, with about half of undelivered Max planes have foreign-object debris (FOD) in their fuel tanks.

  Boeing’s big bet on mid-year production restart could prove disastrous if more delays are seen. 

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 03/02/2020 – 21:00

• Is China's Economy Finally Starting To Recover? Here Is What The Real Data Shows
  Is China’s Economy Finally Starting To Recover? Here Is What The Real Data Shows

  Over the weekend, China-watchers – or at least the ones who don’t really watch China all that closely and instead rely on others’ “hot takes” – were shocked to learn that in February both the Chinese manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs had crashed far below consensus expectations, tumbling to record low levels, surpassing even the economic contraction observed at the peak of the global financial crisis.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Meanwhile, anyone who was following out periodic updates of China’s “alternative”, high-frequency indicators demonstrating the real state of the economy was hardly surprised, because as we showed over the past few weeks, after China’s catastrophic post-Lunar New Year collapse the economy has yet to stage a material rebound as profiled previously:

  • China Has Ground To A Halt: “On The Ground” Indicators Confirm Worst-Case Scenario
  • China Is Disintegrating: Steel Demand, Property Sales, Traffic All Approaching Zero
  • Terrifying Charts Show China’s Economy Remains Completely Paralyzed

  And yet, judging by the market’s torrid surge on Monday, it appears that – as so often happens – traders took China’s latest numbers in stride, and specifically as an indication of Beijing “kitchen sinking” the collapse in February, with a V-shaped recovery sure to follow.

  Or maybe not, because while not only has China’s economy not picked up even modestly, but it is only a matter of time before Beijing, which has forced people to go to work against their will, succumbs to a second wave of coronavirus infections, one which will result in an even worse economic slump than the current one, which incidentally has yet to show any actual recovery!

  So what do the latest high-frequency economic indicators show? It may come as a surprise to some that not only has China’s economy barely posted any improvement since our last update on this topic a week ago, but it has in fact lost ground in some metrics. Courtesy of Goldman, here is the latest “alternative” data:

  First, daily coal consumption has barely rebounded from the recent lows, and is in fact where it was when the Lunar Near Year started, and tracking almost 30% Y/Y:

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  In line with the reduced daily coal consumption, railway-loaded coal volumes are also tracking substantially below the average level of the past three years, and what’s worse, the 2020 series appears to have slowed down in recent days.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  An even more ominous indicator is China’s traffic congection index – a proxy of overall trade and commerce – which has barely budged since its new year lows and remains far below the same period in previous years.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  With commerce frozen and amid fears that the government is lying about the true extent of the coronavirus spread, it will hardly come as a surprise that passenger traffic has failed to stage even a modest rebound from its new year lows, and is about a quarter of where it was one year.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  One of Wall Street’s favorite real-time indicators, traffic congestion in major Chinese cities, has seen a modest rebound in recent days, however even it remains just barely above its level at the start of the lunar new year, and is below half where it has been in recent years.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  It’s not just passenger traffic that is moribund: the load factor on domestic flights remains a fraction of where it has been in recent years.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Even the one area where there was been a modest rebound in recent days, daily property sale, remains in dire territory, or about 68% down compare to last year.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Looking at end markets for commodities used in construction, the operating rate of rebar  slumped further on both weak demand and high inventories. Likewise, the operating rate of HRC and galvanized steel, mainly used in the manufacturing sector, is now at just 50% of capacity and shows no signs of recovery.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  And, as Goldman points out, while the bank has found increased orders from cable and wires fabricators while, operating rate of copper rod producers remained as low as 50% for big companies and 30% for medium-sized producers. What’s more, some small producers have not restarted yet at all, according to a Goldman survey with onshore contacts.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  There is a silver lining to China’s ongoing economic paralysis: anyone who ventures into one of the country’s thousands of cinemas will have the building all to themselves.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  The failure of China’s economy to reboot comes even as authorities have ordered owners of closed factories – whose employees are scared to return to work – to boost electricity usage to pretend that the economy is back to normal, and to fool those people who look at the charts above, into getting the impression that China’s economy is humming again. We described this bizarre example of central planning on Saturday, and here is Rabobank’s Michael Every commenting on this very phenomenon on Monday morning:

  Saturday’s China PMI data were frankly shocking. Manufacturing was at 35.7 and services at 28.9: these are not recessionary levels, but outright depressionary. The private Caixin PMI was also awful at 40.3, again saying a deep downturn is biting. Of course, the real issue is if we get a V-shaped recovery in output – or in virus infections. Optimists, and Chinese stocks this morning, are cheering the former – and Chinese stocks are always freely traded and never, ever manipulated by the authorities, as well all know. Realists, and NASA satellite imagery of no pollution over China, lean towards the latter: as does one anecdotal, unsubstantiated report trending over the weekend that China has been ordering factories to leave the lights on to make them look busier from space and to boost electricity output in case pesky foreigners start trying to use that as a GDP proxy.

  Finally, for all those expecting that Beijing will unleash another massive stimulus to kick-start the economy which remains paralyzed at a time when most analysts said activity would be back to normal by the first week of March, we give the last word to Nomura’s China economist Ting Lu, who not only correctly predicted the plunge in PMIs, but also said that “the likelihood of another round of massive stimulus appears low as policy space remains limited.””

  “We believe markets might underestimate the scale of the current growth slump. Due to a slower-than-expected rate of business resumption, we have cut our year-on-year Q1 real GDP growth forecast to 3.0% and expect Beijing to ramp up policy easing measures in coming months. That said, the likelihood of another round of massive stimulus appears low as policy space remains limited.”

  In short, for China – which was the world’s growth dynamo during the global financial crisis and helped the world rebound from the 2009 global depression while raking up tens of trillions in debt – the end of the economic road may finally be here.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 03/02/2020 – 20:40

• Forced Labor? – China Pushes 1000s Of Uyghur Muslims To Work In Factories
  Forced Labor? – China Pushes 1000s Of Uyghur Muslims To Work In Factories

  The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) published a new report that says at least 27 factories in nine Chinese provinces are using forced labor of at least 80,000 Muslim Uyghur minority from the western Xinjiang autonomous region. 

  “Under conditions that strongly suggest forced labour, Uyghurs are working in factories that are in the supply chains of at least 83 well-known global brands in the technology, clothing and automotive sectors, including Apple, BMW, Gap, Huawei, Nike, Samsung, Sony, and Volkswagen,” ASPI’s report said.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  After several years of intense international criticism of China’s Uyghur re-education camps of more than one million people, many of these folks have graduated and been funneled into government-directed factories around the country. 

  The report said, “It is extremely difficult for Uyghurs to refuse or escape these work assignments, which are enmeshed with the apparatus of detention and political indoctrination both inside and outside of Xinjiang. In addition to constant surveillance, the threat of arbitrary detention hangs over minority citizens who refuse their government-sponsored work assignments.” 

  It added that “local governments and private brokers are paid a price per head” by the Xinjiang provincial government to “organise the labour assignments,” which ASPI says a new phase of government “repression” of Uyghurs is underway in forced labor factories making products for Western consumers. 

  The Shandong-based Taekwang factory is one of many factories Uyghurs have been forced into labor. Taekwang is owned by South Korean chemical and textile conglomerate (chaebol), is one of the largest manufacturers of shoes for Nike, turning out upwards of eight million pairs per year. 

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  ASPI said hundreds of Uyghurs workers did not choose to work at the factory; they were assigned by the government. 

  “The Chinese government is now exporting the punitive culture and ethos of Xinjiang’s ‘re-education camps’ to factories across China,” said Vicky Xiuzhong Xu, the report’s lead author.

  It was seen in some cases that Uyghurs were transferred from re-education camps directly to factories. 

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

   “For the Chinese state, the goal is to ‘sinicise’ the Uyghurs; for local governments, private brokers and factories, they get a sum of money per head in these labour transfers,” Xu added.

  And while the appeal of cheap slave labor is enticing for Western companies, the Chinese government promotes Uyghurs integration in factories as their strong efforts at ‘multicultralism’…

   “By ‘encouraging’ ethnic minorities in Xinjiang to ‘interact and develop themselves,'” Wang Yang, an official in charge of Xinjiang labor policies, recently said. “China has immensely promoted interaction and integration among different ethnicities.”

  As China attempts to restart its manufacturing base, specifically in the Hubei region, where shortages of workers remain because of the virus outbreak, it’s only a matter of time before the government sends in Uyghurs to pick up the broken pieces. 

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 03/02/2020 – 20:20

• Did CDC Stop Disclosing How Many Americans Are Being Tested For Covid-19? – Live Updates
  Did CDC Stop Disclosing How Many Americans Are Being Tested For Covid-19? – Live Updates

  Summary:

  • US death toll climbs to 6; all in WA, which has 18 cases
  • 2 new cases confirmed in Tampa Bay
  • 1st case reported in New Hampshire
  • Hubei reports 114 new cases, 31 new deaths
  • South Korea case total hits 4,812 as nearly 500 new cases reported; death toll hits 34
  • Santa Clara County confirms 2 more cases, bringing county total to 9
  • Gottlieb warns US cases likely in ‘low thousands’
  • Illinois announces 4th case
  • Boris Johnson: “A very significant expansion” of the virus is “clearly in the cards”
  • Italian death toll climbs 18 to 52 while total cases surpasses 2,000
  • BMW tells 150 to quarantine after Munich employee infected
  • Algeria total hits 5
  • Senegal becomes 2nd sub-Saharan country to confirm virus
  • WHO’s Tedros: Virus is “common enemy” of humanity so don’t focus on blame
  • Jordan reports first two cases
  • French death toll revised to 3, total cases climb to 191
  • Tunisia reports first case
  • UK total climbs to 40
  • OECD warns global growth could fall by half
  • Indonesia reports first cases
  • “Progress is being made” toward a vaccine
  • Cuomo says NY expects more cases
  • India confirms 2 more cases
  • ‘Official’ Iran death toll hits 66
  • EU confirms 38 deaths across 18 members
  • First cases confirmed in Fla.
  • 2 Amazon employees test positive in Milan
  • Virus now in 8 US states: Washington, California, Illinois, Rhode Island, New York, Florida, Oregon and New Hampshire
  • San Antonio virus patient re-hospitalized after testing positive
  • China warns it could face ‘locust invasion’

  * * *

  Update (2015ET): Health officials in South Korea have reported the first batch of numbers for Tuesday: 477 new cases, bringing the total to 4,812.

  Three more deaths in South Korea, bringing death total to 34 in South Korea, still behind Italy’s 52.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  *  *  *

  Update (1920ET): Hubei has reported 114 newly confirmed cases of the virus, along with 31 new deaths, the Global Times reports. That’s the lowest daily case total since Jan. 21, as Beijing tries to convince its citizens now that they’ve returned to work that everything is all right and there’s no need to fear the virus anymore.

  #Hubei reports 114 new confirmed cases of #coronavirus infections on Mar 2, with 31 new deaths. The total number of infections in the province climbed to 67,217, with 2,834 deaths. pic.twitter.com/8617nYz3nZ

  — Global Times (@globaltimesnews) March 3, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Outside of Hubei, officials reported just 11 additional cases, and no deaths.

  Glancing through the Global Times twitter feed is an always-rewarding activity, and on Monday evening, we noticed this gem: the GT reports that South Korea is struggling to contain the outbreak because of “high levels of religious fanaticism” in the country.

  In S.Korea, a country with high religious fanaticism, virus prevention is a challenge as it is not easy for believers to follow and listen to the scientific advice and instructions, so China should also be careful to prevent virus re-import from SK: expert https://t.co/fybeDGDOyA pic.twitter.com/ZYCHcVoFeA

  — Global Times (@globaltimesnews) March 2, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  * * *

  Update (1850ET): Washington Governor and former Democratic presidential candidate Jay Inslee said Monday that Washingtonians shouldn’t be surprised when authorities start cancelling “big public events” – though he assured the public that he wasn’t requesting a mass cancellation right now(despite the fact that 6 people are dead in his state).

  Gov @JayInslee, in an update on the coronavirus, says people should be ready if authorities move to cancel big public events in Washington:
  “We are not making a request formally right now…But people should be prepared for that possibility and need to be thinking about it.”

  — Matt Day (@mattmday) March 2, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  * * *

  Update (1845ET): UK PM Boris Johnson is reportedly planning to unveil a “plan” to help combat the outbreak in Britain as the total number of cases nears 30, amid signs of ‘community transmission’ inside its borders.

  * * *

  Update (1805ET): During VP Pence’s virus press conference, FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn confirmed that the US will be able to perform around 1 million tests by the end of the week. What this means is simple – more tests, more positives. And we wonder – absent G& actual action, not just talk – if this will take the shine back off stocks.

  However, there is one more concerning thing as US authorities appear to take a page out of communist China’s authoritarian playbook.  As Jedd Kegum noted on Twitter, the CDC has stopped disclosing the number of Americans tested for coronavirus.

  On the left is how the website looked last night. On the right is what it looks like now, with the testing info removed.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Coming right as CDC says it will be massively expanding testing, Legum warns: “The lack of testing is a scandal…This is the coverup.”

  *  *  *

  Update (1550ET): State officials announced the first case of coronavirus in New Hampshire Monday, according to a local TV station.

  Dr. Benjamin Chan, a New Hampshire state epidemiologist, said during a press conference that one of four people reently tested for coronavirus came back positive. The individual had recently traveled to Italy.

  The individual is an adult from Grafton County in the northwestern part of the state. They are not sick enough to be hospitalized, but have been asked to self-quarantine at home. The person is reportedly an employee of Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center. The hospital has reportedly set up an incident command center.

  “We will be working very closely with healthcare providers in the community and the hospital system involved in order to investigate this case of COVID-19 and try and prevent further transmission in our community,” Chan said.

  Health officials in the state said they have no reason to suspect a community outbreak since the history of transmission is clear.

  “We will be working tirelessly to investigate this most recent identification and to identify any potential susceptible contacts who may need themselves to be placed under self quarantine,” Chan said.

  In an interview that will air tonight, Dr. Anthony Fauci of the CDC said the outbreak in the US has “reached outbreak proportions and likely pandemic proportions.

  Dr. Fauci to @RichardEngel: Coronavirus has “reached outbreak proportions and likely pandemic proportions” — tonight on @NBCNightlyNews

  (via @NBCNewsPR) #covid19 pic.twitter.com/m1PqioLdqZ

  — Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) March 2, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Eight US states have no confirmed cases of the coronavirus: Washington, California, Illinois, Rhode Island, New York, Florida, Oregon and New Hampshire

  During a short, impromptu briefing with reporters after his meeting with drug company CEOs at the White House on Wednesday, Trump hinted at tightening travel restrictions, something critics have been demanding.

  In other news, critics slammed VP Mike Pence after the CDC abruptly delayed a Monday briefing.

  “A White House spokesperson later said the CDC would participate in an afternoon briefing today on the coronavirus response with Vice President Mike Pence.”

  The stock market and Trump’s political fortunes matter more than making timely information public. https://t.co/IZySY7gEdN

  — subscribe to my newsletter (@brianbeutler) March 2, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  * * *

  Update (1540ET): Now that France’s confirmed cases have more than doubled over the past two days, French drug giant Sanofi said it is producing an experimental lot of the vaccine. We assume the experimental doses will be distributed to the most in-need patients.

  * * *

  Update (1455ET): In his latest comment of the day, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said “we are ready for potential economic downsides from coronavirus”.

  Most of Google’s 8,000 employees and contractors in Ireland have been told to work from home tomorrow after a member of staff reported flu-like symptoms.

  * * *

  Update (1440ET): The US death toll is now changing by the minute.

  Washington State authorities are now saying six patients have died from the virus (presumably all of them were elderly or sick, as the first patients who died were), and the total number of patients in the state has climbed to 18, with all of the new cases of “unknown origin” as experts warn there could be hundreds, possibly thousands, of infections in the state.

  And US stocks are moving further off their highs as yet another intraday rally fizzles.

  Over in Australia, which confirmed its first case of community transmission on Monday, organizers said the Formula One season-opening Australian Grand Prix will be held as scheduled on March 15, despite the looming virus threat. The number of cases in Qatar, meanwhile, has climbed to 7.

  * * *

  Update (1420ET): Washington State health officials announced Monday that three more coronavirus patients in King County have died, bringing the US death toll to 5. The new cases announced brings the total cases in the county to 14.

  Jeffrey Duchin, a health officer for Seattle and King County, said during a press conference that the county had confirmed 4 new cases on Monday, bringing its total to 14. Of these 4 new cases, two had died, while 1 previously reported patient had also passed away.

  There are the newly confirmed patients who passed away:

  • A male in his 50s, hospitalized at Highline Hospital. No known exposures.
  • A male in his 70s, a resident of LifeCare, hospitalized at EvergreenHealth in Kirkland. The man had underlying health conditions, and died 3/1/20.

  And the previously confirmed who have died:

  • A female in her 70s, a resident of LifeCare, hospitalized at EvergreenHealth in Kirkland. The woman had underlying health conditions, and died 3/1/20.
  • A female in her 80s, a resident of LifeCare, was hospitalized at EvergreenHealth.
  • In addition, a woman in her 80s, who was already reported as in critical condition at Evergreen, has died. She died on 3/1/20

  The Seattle Times reported that the F5 Office Tower in downtown Seattle had closed for cleaning after an employee had contact with a coronavirus patient.

  Circling back to the press conference, officials promised to do everything they could for our health workers. They added that the people of Washington State can help by “saving masks” for medical workers and people who really need them, which is a surprising thing to say considering the outbreak is obviously accelerating.

  Masks are not recommended for healthy people to prevent infection, but they are so important for our health care workers to have.

  King County Chief Executive Dow Constantine confirmed during an 11 am (local time) press conference that his county is in final negotiations to buy a motel and convert it quickly into modular housing.

  That presser is ongoing for whoever wants to watch:

  Live now: https://t.co/yLzA6GH8td

  — King County Council (@KCCouncil) March 2, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  In other recent news, Oman has become the latest Middle Eastern state to ban travelers from coronavirus-impacted countries, joining Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

  Senegal has become the second country in sub-Saharan Africa to confirm a coronavirus case, joining a growing list of countries and cities that have reported their first cases on Monday. In Northern Africa, Algeria reported two new cases, bringing its total to 5.

  * * *

  Update (1400ET): French officials just confirmed their country’s 191st case as of Monday, with confirmations doubling in two days. They also reported that earlier figures were incorrect, and that France’s death toll had been reduced to 3, down from 4. The most recent death was an 89-year-old woman who was confirmed post-mortem. 

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  In other news, the UAE is evacuating its citizens in Iran as the coronavirus spreads.

  The CDC just announced that it has confirmed Florida’s first two coronavirus cases confirmed late Sunday night.

  One Washington County is also reportedly devising a plan to buy a motel to start housing coronavirus patients.

  * * *

  Update (1345ET): Public health officials in Santa Clara County have confirmed two new cases of COVID-19 on Monday.

  This brings the total number of cases in the county to 9. The state added that the increase in cases is “not unexpected.”

  Read the full media statement below:

  • Media Statement: County of Santa Clara Public Health Department Reports Two New Cases of COVID-19
  • The County of Santa Clara Public Health Department confirms two new cases of COVID-19 in Santa Clara County. This brings the total number of cases to nine.
  • The eighth case is an adult male household contact of a confirmed case in another county. He is under home isolation.
  • The ninth case is an adult male household contact of a previously confirmed case in Santa Clara County.  He is also under home isolation.
  • Due to medical privacy requirements and to protect their identity, further information about these cases will not be released.
  • An increase in cases is not unexpected. The Public Health Department will continue to identify anyone who has come into contact with these cases. The department will also be conducting community surveillance to determine the extent of possible disease spread in our community.
  • Individuals and organizations need to take action to help slow down the spread of the disease. For individuals, the recommendations are simple, but very important:
  • Keep your hands clean by washing them frequently, especially after you touch common surfaces, such as doorknobs, elevator buttons, handrails, light switches, countertops, and tables. It is one of the most important steps you can take to avoid getting sick and spreading germs to others. Always cover your cough and stay home when you are sick.
  • Stay away from people who are sick, and stay home if you are sick.
  • Work on not touching your face because one way viruses spread is when you touch your own mouth, nose or eyes. If you do need to touch your own mouth, nose or eyes, wash your hands before you do so.
  • Start thinking about family preparedness, how to take care of sick family members while not getting infected. Think about a room to isolate a sick person.
  • There are practical measures that can help limit spread by reducing exposure in community settings:
  • Schools: should plan for absenteeism and explore options for learning at home and enhance cleaning of surfaces.
  • Businesses: whenever possible, can replace in-person meetings with video or telephone conferences and increase teleworking options, as well as modify absenteeism policies and enhance cleaning of surfaces.

  Shortly after, Fox News reported that officials in Tampa Bay confirmed two more cases, marking the 3rd and 4th cases in the state of Florida.

  Of course, thanks to Florida’s reputation as a haven for retirees, a reputation that’s bolstered by the fact that Florida has the largest population of senior citizens in the US, the state is particularly vulnerable, as many members of vulnerable communities also live in close proximity to one another. 

  * * *

  Update (1305ET): Boris Johnson said Monday that “a very significant expansion” of the virus is “clearly in the cards.”

  * * *

  Update (1300ET): Public health officials in Illinois have announced another “presumptive positive” case of coronavirus. Like the prior cases, Illinois case No. 4 is also in Cook County.

  .@IDPH and @CookCoHealth report 4th coronavirus case in Illinois. Woman in her 70s who is the spouse of the third case pic.twitter.com/mssAgf8dHG

  — Ben Orner (@Ben_Orner) March 2, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The total number of coronavirus cases confirmed in Italy has climbed to more than 2,000 on Sunday, according to a statement from Italian public health officials. The country’s death toll climbed by 18 to 52.

  The march of first-cases continues, with Saudi Arabia becoming the latest to announce its first case on Monday.

  In Washington, 34 firefighters and police are being quarantined after visiting the nursing home in Kirkland where two cases were confirmed over the weekend.

  * * *

  Update (1130ET): Toward the end of the Q&A with reporters following Monday’s press briefing, Dr. Tedros told a reporter that humanity now has a “common enemy” and should focus on fighting it instead of apportioning blame. The WHO Director-General made the remark in response to a question about the culpability of certain governments for the global spread of the coronavirus.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  The outbreak only kills roughly 2% of those it infects, Dr. Tedros said. Because of this, he said, Dr. Tedros believes that “the stigma to be honest is more dangerous than the virus itself,” he said. “Let’s really underline that. The stigma is the most dangerous enemy, for me it’s more than the virus itself.”

  Translation: The WHO is prioritizing defending Beijing’s actions – i.e. ‘battling racism’ – over its responsibility to combat the virus.

  “Concerns and worries are understandable. It’s fine to be concerned and worried, but let’s calm down and do the right thing,” he added later before ending the briefing.

  • WHO’S TEDROS SAYS HUMANITY NOW HAS A COMMON ENEMY
  • WHO’S TEDROS SAYS STIGMA IS MORE DANGEROUS THAN VIRUS ITSELF

  Dr. Tedros then launched into a defense of the WHO’s decision to delay the decision to declare the virus a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC), before pointing out the fact that in 55 countries have confirmed less than 100 cases.

  “Even if it’s more, it can be contained.”

  So, Dr. Tedros started the press conference explaining why it’s not appropriate to describe the outbreak as a pandemic, before declaring it a “common enemy” of the human race.

  We seem to have lost the thread.

  * * *

  Update (1100ET): The WHO’s daily presser is still ongoing. Meanwhile, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said Monday after two people were diagnosed with the virus that 23 Floridians have now been tested, and 184 are under monitoring by publi health officials.

  California has warned about how the virus could impact its finances.

  * * *

  Update (10:55ET): Mary Lou McDonald, the leader of Ireland’s Sinn Fein, has revealed that her children attend the Dublin school that has been temporarily shuttered after a student who recently returned from Italy was diagnosed with the virus, according to the Guardian.

  The roughly 400 students and staff at the school have been advised to ‘stay home’ and ‘restrict their movements’.

  * * *

  Update (1045ET): WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said Monday that he wouldn’t call the outbreak a pandemic until “evidence warrants” – adding that right now, 90% of cases are in China (even as the virus as been confirmed in nearly 70 countries).

  • WHO’S TEDROS SAYS WILL CALL IT A PANDEMIC IF EVIDENCE WARRANTS
  • WHO’S RYAN SAYS STILL HOPEFUL CONTAINMENT IS RIGHT STRATEGY
  • TRUMP SAYS HE ASKED TO ACCELERATE WORK ON VIRUS VACCINES
  • WHO’S TEDROS STILL URGES CONTAINMENT FOR KOREA, CHINA, ITALY
  • CHINA HAS SENT TECHNICAL TEAM TO AID RESPONSE IN IRAN

  In other news, Qatar’s public health officials have announced 4 new cases of the virus.

  * * *

  Update (1030ET): Tunisia has reported its first case of coronavirus, joining a growing list of major cities and countries that have reported their first cases of the virus on Monday, drawing even more scrutiny to the WHO and its unwillingness to call the outbreak a ‘pandemic’.

  Meanwhile, the WHO will hold its daily press breifing at 10:30 am ET.

  Watch live below:

  * * *

  Update (0900ET): Here’s a funny headline about the G7 emergency coronavirus meeting.

  • FRANCE’S FINANCE MIN. LE MAIRE: G7 CORONAVIRUS MEETING IS TO BE HELD BY TELEPHONE TO LIMIT TRAVEL.

  The ECB, meanwhile, called off a joint event with the European Commission that was supposed to happen on Tuesday because several participants cancelled because of the outbreak.

  In the UK, the total number of cases has climbed to 40.

  In other news: As fear spreads in Washington State, six schools and one university have closed Monday for a ‘deep clean’.

  * * *

  Update (0845ET): Echoing the news out of San Antonio, Rajasthan Health Minister Raghu Sharma warned Monday morning in the US that one of India’s first cases was a passenger who landed in Jaipur from Italy on Feb 29. He was admitted to the isolation ward at a hospital after he showed symptoms of COVID-19 in the screening and at first he tested negative, and he was sent home.

  However, a later confirmatory test later showed he was positive.

  It just underlines the notion that the most dangerous thing about the novel coronavirus is it’s ability to remain undetected for lengths of time.

  * * *

  Update (0820ET): The French death toll doubled Monday morning when health officials reported 2 new deaths, bringing the total to four.

  * * *

  Update (0800ET): Former FDA Director Scott Gottlieb, who has been far more vocal than the current FDA director thanks to his regular appearances on CNBC and other cable news channels, warned during an interview on CNBC Monday morning that the public shouldn’t trust the administration’s rhetoric.

  The fact is, things are far from ‘okay’, Gottlieb said. Now that the government is expanding testing, the US case count will ‘grow rapidly’. The public should start stocking up on supplies and preparing for widespread disruptions. Gottlieb warned that the number of cases in the US has probably already reached the ‘low thousands’. Hundreds could be confirmed by the end of the week.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Scott Gottlieb

  As the GT pointed out earlier, the CDC is telling Americans that wearing facemasks in public right now isn’t necessary. We suspect Gottlieb would beg to differ.

  Meanwhile, Jordan has reported its first 2 cases as the coronavirus outbreak in the Middle East spreads.

  BMW has reportedly told 150 R&D employees to quarantine at home for two weeks ater coming into contact with an employee in Munich contracted the virus. The Munich case was sent home to self-quarantine. Large companies that have now confirmed employees have been infected include Amazon, Nike, Google and BMW. 

  Before we go, we’d just like to point out: In the past 24 hours, Moscow, New Delhi, NYC, Berlin, Rome and Brussels have all confirmed their first cases, as have Indonesia, Portugal and now Jordan on Monday morning.

  And yet…

  And the World Health Organization still won’t call this a pandemic. https://t.co/y4Y3cbAw30

  — Ben Hunt (@EpsilonTheory) March 2, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Earlier, European Commission President Von der Leyen followed the OECD’s breakthrough warning by saying the risk in the EU had risen from “moderate” to “high.”

  * * *

  Update (0730ET): As we reported last night, a group of drug company CEOs are on their way to meet with President Trump at the White House.”Progress is being made” toward a vaccine, Trump said.

  I am meeting with the major pharmaceutical companies today at the White House about progress on a vaccine and cure. Progress being made!

  — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 2, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Meanwhile, NY Governor and Trump nemesis Andrew Cuomo told CNN Monday that he expects more cases to be confirmed in New York. NYC’s first patient is a woman in her late 30s who contracted the virus while traveling abroad in Iran.

  Amazingly, despite all of Cuomo’s boasts about his state’s state of the art labs and medical resources, the woman is apparently “isolated in her home.”

  * * *

  Update (0715ET): A Reuters headline from late Sunday just caught our eye, and we felt obligated to share: China’s State Forestry and Grasslands Administration has warned that the world’s second-largest economy could face a devastating “Locust Invasion”.

  • CHINA FACES RISK OF LOCUST INVASION – FORESTRY AND GRASSLAND ADMINISTRATION

  Last month, we reported that China was deploying an “army of ducks” to help Pakistan fight an invasion of locusts, a plague that is also hurting farmers across Africa.

  Looks like Beijing is going to need its ducks back.

  The Global Times, meanwhile, is now mocking the CDC for refusing to recommend that Americans should wear facemasks.

  Suggesting people not wear face mask is seriously misleading. All of the Chinese experts have advised people to wear face mask when in contact with others during time of epidemic and consider it one of the most effective measures. Please heed suggestion of Chinese experts. pic.twitter.com/xUxq11m7Bg

  — Hu Xijin 胡锡进 (@HuXijin_GT) March 2, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  * * *

  Update (0640ET): Japan reports 15 new coronavirus cases, Reuters reports, bringing the country total to 271, excluding the 705 from the Diamond Princess.

  * * *

  Update (0615ET): Stella Kyriakides, the European Commissioner for Health and Food Safety, confirmed on Monday that the EU Has 2,100 confirmed cases and 38 confirmed deaths across 18 member states. The bloc has also raised its risk alert level from “moderate” to “high”.

  Yet all the borders remain open…

  Shortly after South Korea reported 599 new cases of coronavirus raising its total to 4,335 and death toll to 22, South Korea’s transport ministry said flights from South Korea to the US would begin screening all passengers with mandatory temperature checks – techniques that have already been shown to be not entirely effective.

  Trump has seemed hesitant to slap South Korea and Italy with the same travel restrictions he used on China. If he cares about being reelected, he might want to reconsider.

  China reported 202 additional coronavirus cases and 42 additional deaths last night, as we reported. This morning in the US, Chinese Premier Li said the coronavirus outbreak was at a crucial stage and that positive trends outside Hubei mean strict control measures must be maintained.

  * * *

  Update (0600ET): After six weeks of speculation about how Indonesia had managed to avoid an outbreak, especially considering the thousands of travelers from Hubei that visited the country, the government of the world’s fourth-largest country had confirmed that two patients had tested positive on Monday, Reuters reports.

  In other news, Goldman Sachs has postponed all non-essential travel for its staff “effective immediately” according to a memo seen by Reuters.

  * * *

  Meanwhile, here’s the State Department’s ‘Travel Advisory’ map. Areas marked ‘red’ indicate ‘Do Not Travel’, areas in yellow or yellow-black stripes are ‘exercise increased caution’ (it’s not clearly visible, but Italy has yellow-black stripes).

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  The CDC has its own travel advisory map (courtesy of NPR):

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  * * *

  As the wild swings in US equity futures over the last few hours would suggest, we’re headed for another insane week of coronavirus news as America comes to grips with the outbreak as it claims a second life and spreads to the country’s largest city.

  The American coronavirus outbreak accelerated rapidly over the weekend, as health officials confirmed the first virus-linked death on Saturday, before confirming a second death of a US citizen – this time a 70-year-old man – in the same area of Washington State.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  As we explained last night, state and federal public-health officials are focusing on what appears to be a cluster of confirmed cases in Washington, where both deaths have occurred, as well as outbreaks in Oregon and California where patients had no clear path of transmission for the virus, leading officials to suspect that a more widespread outbreak has already begun. Late Sunday night, Gov. Cuomo confirmed the first case in Manhattan, involving a woman who had recently traveled to Iran. The news followed a seemingly unceasing stream of scares and negative tests in America’s largest city, according to the New York Times.

  As we pointed out, the global death toll climbed above 3,000 last night as China reported another 42 deaths.

  “Coronavirus Czar” and Vice President Mike Pence reiterated promises to make more testing kits available to state officials, reiterating promises made over the weekend. President Trump and other administration officials are also scheduled to meet with drug company execs on Monday.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  The cases confirmed over the weekend were found in seven states: Washington, California, Illinois, Rhode Island, New York, Florida and Oregon, and included a mix of people who had traveled to high-risk countries, and others believed to have contracted the virus in the US.

  Republican-controlled Florida defied Pence’s urges to ‘remain calm’ and declared a state of emergency on Sunday after the governor’s office confirmed 2 “presumptively positive” cases late Sunday, according to a Florida TV station. 

  Russia reported the first case of the virus in Moscow in a man who returned from Italy on Feb. 23, local newswires reported.

  The cases were discovered in Florida’s Manatee County and Hillsborough County.

  A patient in San Antonio, one of the evacuees, appeared to recover from the coronavirus illness and had been released from a health care facility after having tested negative twice in more than 24 hours was placed back into isolation, even after the CDC’s Dr. Anthony Fauci insisted that there was no evidence that people could be ‘reinfected’ after recovering from the virus.

  Mayor of San Antonio. #covid19 https://t.co/pIm1vxROFD

  — Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) March 2, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  India’s health minister confirmed 2 new cases as the virus spreads in India and neighboring Pakistan. Health authorities in Portugal confirmed the first 2 cases in the country early Monday as the virus continues its spread across Europe. And Iran reported 523 new cases of coronavirus Monday morning and 11 new deaths, bringing the total to 1,501 cases confirmed and 66 dead.

  After advising employees to stop non-essential travel over the weekend, Amazon said late Sunday that two of its employees in Milan have contracted the virus and are now under quarantine, the NYT reports.

  “We’re supporting the affected employees who were in Milan and are now in quarantine,” company spokesman Dan Perlet said.

  The world’s biggest online retailer said it was unaware of any U.S. employees who had contracted the virus. On Friday, Amazon told employees to stop non-essential travel, within the United States and beyond. The company also confirmed on Sunday it is moving some recruiting interviews to video rather than in person.

  Over in China, on-the-ground reports claim that most Chinese have returned to work at this point. However, in the rush back to work, the CCP appears to have overlooked a few things…like worker-safety standards.

  Chinese workers are working under these kinds of conditions to boost #CCP‘s GDP, which they are very proud of.
  中共的 #GDP 有多少是底层民众的血与汗与命换来的。 pic.twitter.com/Hx0q7YulBW

  — 曾錚 Jennifer Zeng (@jenniferatntd) March 1, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  As Chinese officials continue their campaign to convince the world, and the Chinese population, that the outbreak is subsiding and that everything will soon return to normal, State TV reports the first of 16 hospitals specially built in Wuhan to tackle the coronavirus epidemic.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 03/02/2020 – 20:19

• Friday's Dip Buying By Hedge Funds Was The Most Extreme In The Past Decade: Why This Is Worrying Morgan Stanley
  Friday’s Dip Buying By Hedge Funds Was The Most Extreme In The Past Decade: Why This Is Worrying Morgan Stanley

  Amid the broader market carnage which culminated with the fastest 10% S&P correction from an all time high, last week also we observed the biggest one-day point drop in the Dow Jones ever (this in turn was followed by the biggest one-day Dow point surge ever on Monday). But more notably, following several days of freefall, on Friday equity long/short hedge funds finally stepped up, and whether it ends up being the “best trade”, the “worst trade”, or something in between, Morgan Stanley’s prime brokerage writes that “the buying of US equities among Equity L/S funds on Friday was the biggest we’ve seen in the past decade.” And while Monday’s ramp certainly eased some concerns about another year of woeful hedge fund performance, Morgan Stanley cautions that depending on what happens to stocks from here, it “raises the risks that we could see a rotation and alpha drawdown, should these flows look to reverse in the future.”

  As we first observed two weeks ago, the record high leverage, crowding, and factor risks among the hedge fund community have raised the risk for future violent hedge fund rotations.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  And while we have not yet seen these risks realized in the sharp sell-off over the past weeks, the recent behavior and mixed performance among HFs has made Morgan Stanley more concerned that we could be getting closer to a sharp rotation. In particular, three of the things the bank is watching have changed recently and are driving its greater concern:

  • HFs have been actively adding to gross leverage, particularly by adding longs in the largest amounts of the past decade last Thurs and Fri. This is concerning because in 3 of the 4 similar past episodes since 2014, large long selling has followed afterwards and has coincided with negative HF alpha (see Figure 1 below)
  • L/S funds bought large amounts of Momentum last week (and sold Value), once again crushing Marko Kolanovic’s argument that a rotation out of momentum/low-vol and into value stocks is imminent.
  • Performance (while good relative to the markets) has declined in absolute terms into negative territory and crowded stock performance has been mixed

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  So was Friday’s record dip buying a sign that hedge funds have finally gotten their mojo back and are again able to time market inflection points? According to Morgan Stanley that is hardly the case, and instead last week’s flush into risk assets merely underscores the top three rotation risks, which are as follows:

  Rotation Risk Consideration #1: Largest Long Buying of Past Decade

  Throughout the sharp sell-off last week, HF activity showed almost no signs of active de-grossing. In fact, the opposite was largely the case as L/S funds bought longs throughout last week and Quant funds generally added to both sides of their  books to keep their leverage from falling as fast as it would simply due to the falling markets. Put simply, there were no real signs of capitulation among Hedge funds.

  While this behavior of buying dips and adding to gross exposure is fairly common during market pullbacks, the magnitude of the long buying among L/S funds spiked to unprecedented levels on Friday. For context, the long buying on Thursday was in line with the prior high from 2010-2019 and Friday’s buying was ~75% higher than that. Similarly, large long buying has often come near short term market troughs, aside from what happened in late 2018 (i.e. HFs generally exhibited good timing from a broad market perspective). Looking at the peak long buying within the green ovals in Figure 1, they peaked on the following dates:

  • Feb 6, 2014
  • Aug 27, 2015
  • Feb 9, 2018
  • Oct 17, 2018

  However, this behavior raises the rotation risk that Morgan Stanley’s Prime Brokerage has been getting more concerned about for a while. Essentially, the concern is that HFs have tended to sell longs afterwards (often as markets rebounded) and this selling coincided with negative alpha from L/S funds.

  Notably, the one time there wasn’t a subsequent alpha drawdown in the next few months was early 2018. But as one can see from the next chart below, the long buying then was a reversal from long selling into the Jan ’18 peak, rather than an acceleration of long buying as we’ve seen recently. The chart below tracks the trend in the cumulative long activity over time to help show when longs have been built up or reduced. To be clear, HFs were covering shorts aggressively from 4Q17 to early ’18 so nets were going higher, but L/S funds weren’t arguably pressing their longs into the market high.

  In addition, this chart shows that, while the long buying in Jan 2016 and Aug 2019 were not quite as extreme over a short period of time (as highlighted in the green rectangles in Figure 1), the long risk had been building for months leading up to  the drawdowns in 1Q16 and Sep-Oct 2019.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Rotation Risk Consideration #2: Increased Momentum Buying (and Value Selling)

  It’s not just that L/S funds were adding risk by buying the dip last week, what’s also notable is what they were buying. From a sector/industry perspective, they were mostly buying areas they’re already quite long: Software, IT Services (payments), Aero & Defense, Semis, Internet Retail, Hotels Restaurants & Leisure, and Entertainment.

  From a factor standpoint, this manifested itself in one of the largest weeks of buying of Momentum in many years. It was the largest since last Sep (during the brief rebound after the sharp drawdown) and last Aug. In addition, it was the largest selling of Value in years. From a net exposure standpoint, L/S fund Momentum exposure is around the 50th %-tile since 2010 (and similar to where it stood prior to the selloff last Sep) while Value is around the 10th %-tile since 2010.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Rotation Risk Consideration #3: Performance Declines

  For many HFs that are net long the market, there were few places to hide last week. Thus, it’s not surprising that funds lost about 4-5% gross last week as markets were down about 10%. This shifts returns into negative territory on a YTD basis. Needless to say, dipping into negative territory on a YTD basis early in the year is very different from doing so late in the year and leads to different investing behavior. Thus, being down about 2% hasn’t apparently triggered large de-grossing, especially as equity markets are now down 8-9% on the year.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  For those looking for a performance trigger, Morgan Stanley suggests that one reference point might be early 2016. As the S&P sold off 9% from Dec 31 to Jan 20, L/S funds were down about 4-5%. However, the tipping point was that as the S&P rallied towards the end of Jan to be down only 5%, L/S were still down about 3.5-4% (i.e. there was little upside capture on the rebound). When markets started to sell-off again in early Feb and funds went back to being down closer to 5% on the year, they aggressively switched to de-grossing.

  So while performance has held up so far, the concern is that a breakdown in returns could cause risk appetite to decline and de-grossing to increase. Two things to note on this front are:

  1. The crowded longs in the US have held in relatively well lately, but the 2 best days last week were last Thurs & Fri, which coincided with outsized long buying among HFs
  2. The crowded shorts have not been working well, which may suggest less cushion if the longs start underperforming

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  In conclusion, Morgan Stanley reminds us that a few weeks ago that the Combined Risk Metric of leverage-crowding-factors was back at highs, BUT that we had not yet seen aggressive HF behavior at that point and the rotations usually came a couple months after the metric hit highs. As such, “with the changes in behavior last week and more time passing, the risks of a rotation appear to be greater now and if capitulation (i.e. de-grossing) does play out among HFs, this would likely be fairly painful.”

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 03/02/2020 – 20:05

• Beto O'Rourke Becomes Third Former Democratic Rival To Endorse Biden As 'Super Tuesday' Looms
  Beto O’Rourke Becomes Third Former Democratic Rival To Endorse Biden As ‘Super Tuesday’ Looms

  Update (2010ET): Buttigieg is looking like a strong contender in the nascent race to become Joe Biden’s VP pick.

  Buttigieg and Biden enter Dallas’ Chicken Scratch restaurant pic.twitter.com/ZNkuxcYDfx

  — Jennifer Epstein (@jeneps) March 3, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “I am delighted to endorse and support Joe Biden,” Buttigieg says with Biden in Dallas. pic.twitter.com/UCjwM4umfI

  — Jennifer Epstein (@jeneps) March 3, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  * * *

  Beto O’Rourke will be the third former Democratic presidential contender to endorse Vice President Joe Biden Monday night during a rally in Dalls, the New York Times reports.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Former Representative Beto O’Rourke of Texas, who became a progressive star in his spirited race against Senator Ted Cruz before mounting a less-successful presidential campaign, will endorse Joseph R. Biden Jr. and appear with him in Dallas Monday night, according to two Democratic officials familiar with his plans.

  Mr. O’Rourke, who dropped out of the primary last fall, has returned to his native El Paso and largely stayed out of the campaign.

  But one night before the Texas primary, he will line up with his fellow former candidates, Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar, in their effort to coalesce behind Mr. Biden and slow the momentum of Bernie Sanders.

  The shock-and-awe message is clear: Despite his innumberable stumbles and the fact that his campaign was on life-support just days ago (though he still has tens of millions in his campaign war chest), the DNC has anointed Joe Biden the winner of the primary.

  At this point, the only non-Bernie frontrunner who hasn’t dropped out is Elizabeth Warren, who was probably busy Monday night celebrating the demise of Chris Matthews’ career, just the latest ‘scalp’ on Warren’s wall.

  You shouldn’t have to be a billionaire with a concierge service to get tested, treated, and vaccinated for coronavirus. My plan will let every American get the coronavirus protections they need for free. https://t.co/JPsaw6Gvnq

  — Elizabeth Warren (@ewarren) March 3, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  On Twitter, Warren was busy sharing one of the several stories published Monday bashing the rich over imaginary resource hoarding that isn’t even happening.

  You shouldn’t have to be a billionaire with a concierge service to get tested, treated, and vaccinated for coronavirus. My plan will let every American get the coronavirus protections they need for free. https://t.co/JPsaw6Gvnq

  — Elizabeth Warren (@ewarren) March 3, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Still, Robyn Kanner’s 72 hours aren’t yet up.

  I think we’re only 72 hours out from an overwhelming majority of Presidential candidates dropping out. It’s been a hell of a race. Proud of all the staffers on campaigns. Let’s unite. Let’s beat Trump.

  — Robyn Kanner (@robynkanner) March 1, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Here’s Buttigieg endorsing Biden live. We expect to see Beto and Amy shortly.

  HAPPENING NOW: Pete Buttigieg endorses Joe Biden at campaign rally in Dallas https://t.co/H9n7JKbYS7 pic.twitter.com/faHkxRmbuq

  — CBS News (@CBSNews) March 3, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Though Bloomberg is stubbornly hanging on (for now), unless something incredibly shocking happens tomorrow, it’s pretty much down to Biden vs. Bernie. Although, as Trump argued earlier, it’s not really a race – it’s a coup.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 03/02/2020 – 20:04

• Matthews Out At MSNBC After Sexism, Bigotry, Racism, & Senior Moments
  Matthews Out At MSNBC After Sexism, Bigotry, Racism, & Senior Moments

  Oh, the perfect irony that after almost four years of abusing Donald Trump (during his campaign and presidency) for endless character flaws, it will be President Trump that outlasts the MSDNC anchor.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  At the beginning of tonight’s show – ‘Hardball’ – Chris Matthews abruptly announced his retirement after a tumultuous month that included calls for his firing.

  “I’m retiring. This is the last ‘Hardball’ on MSNBC, and obviously this isn’t for lack of interest in politics,” the 74-year-old said in addressing the audience in scripted remarks.

  “As you can tell, I’ve loved every minute of my 20 years as host of Hardball. Every morning I read the papers and gung-ho to get to work. Not many people have had this privilege.”

  pic.twitter.com/ZKwShVaTWE

  — Hardball (@hardball) March 3, 2020

  “Retired” is one way of calling it…

  Matthews was notably absent from the network’s live coverage of the South Carolina primary on Saturday, one day after being accused of sexual harassment by GQ columnist Laura Bassett (lambasting Matthews for comments made to a variety of women during his MSNBC career).

  “I was afraid to name him at the time for fear of retaliation from the network; I’m not anymore. It was Chris Matthews. In 2016, right before I had to go on his show and talk about sexual-assault allegations against Donald Trump, Matthews looked over at me in the makeup chair next to him and said, ‘Why haven’t I fallen in love with you yet?’

  So he is a sexist?

  “Another time, he stood between me and the mirror and complimented the red dress I was wearing for the segment. ‘You going out tonight?’ he asked,” Bassett wrote, adding that Matthews told the makeup artists at the time, “Make sure you wipe this off her face after the show. We don’t make her up so some guy at a bar can look at her like this.”

  And a bigot?

  Then things got super awkward during coverage of President Donald Trump’s rally in South Carolina on Friday evening when Matthews thought Republican South Carolina Senator Tim Scott was Jaime Harrison, a Democrat running against the other senator from that state, Lindsey Graham.

  The exchange between Matthews and Harrison occurred after the two had already spoken several minutes prior. Later, when Matthews saw Scott standing next to Graham, he mistook the junior South Carolina senator for Graham’s black Democratic opponent.

  “Jaime, I see you standing next to the guy you’re gonna beat right there, maybe, maybe maybe, Lindsey Graham,” Matthews quipped.

  “That’s Tim Scott, Tim Scott,” a female voice said off-camera.

  “Jaime?” Matthews said.

  “Who is that?” said the obviously confused MSNBC anchor after another correction.

  “That’s Tim Scott,” Harrison said, smiling.

  And is having senior moments?

  Confusing two Americans because they have the same skin color?

  Omg Chris Matthews Just confused Jamie Harrison for Tim Scott!
  But don’t worry about it Chris I think all you old white men with toupees all look alike too! #hardball pic.twitter.com/83OGMX6sP3

  — Mayday Mindy🌹🌊 (@maydaymindy9) February 29, 2020

  Or is he racist?

  Perhaps he should have ‘removed from office’ sooner?

  In fact after his statement of retirement, Matthews attempted to address some of the recent controversies and allegations around him, trying to offer an apology.

  “After my conversation with NBC, I decided tonight will be my last ‘Hardball.’ I’ll tell you why. The younger generations are ready to take the reigns. We see them in Politics, the media, they have proven in the workplace. They grew up with better standards, fair standards.”

  “Compliments on a woman’s appearance some men, including me, might have once incorrectly thought were okay were never okay. Certainly not today. For making such comments in the past, I’m sorry.”

  Have a great retirement Chris. Watching Trump win in November.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 03/02/2020 – 19:40

• The Nobility Of Tulsi Gabbard
  The Nobility Of Tulsi Gabbard

  Authored by W.J.Astore via BracingViews.com,

  In the South Carolina primary won on Saturday by Joe Biden, Tulsi Gabbard earned only 1.3% of the vote.  Her poor showing was due in part to her outcast status among the Democratic establishment joined by mainstream media outlets like MSNBC and CNN. 

  Speaking of CNN, I caught a few minutes of coverage over the weekend during which its commentators confessed they couldn’t understand why Tulsi was still running. One person (Anderson Cooper, the weasel) suggested she was angling for a job with Fox News. 

  Of course, Tulsi’s principled opposition to regime-change wars and other disastrous U.S. foreign policy decisions went unmentioned.  When her name is mentioned by the corporate-owned media, it’s usually in the context of the candidate most likely to succeed – in Russia.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  By running in the election, Tulsi Gabbard continues to make an invaluable contribution:

  She highlights the power of the military-industrial-Congressional-media complex and its rejection of any candidate willing to challenge it. 

  Gabbard’s status as a major in the Hawaii Army National Guard, her service in Congress on the House Armed Services Committee, her military deployments to Iraq: all of this is downplayed or dismissed.  Meanwhile, Mayor Pete’s brief stint in Afghanistan is celebrated as the height of military service.  What’s the difference between them?  Mayor Pete plays ball with big donors and parrots talking points of the Complex – Tulsi doesn’t.

  In a recent op-ed for The Hill, Tulsi yet again does America a service by calling out red baiting in America’s elections.  Here’s how her op-ed begins:

  Reckless claims by anonymous intelligence officials that Russia is “helping” Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) are deeply irresponsible. So was former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s calculated decision Tuesday to repeat this unsubstantiated accusation on the debate stage in South Carolina. Enough is enough. I am calling on all presidential candidates to stop playing these dangerous political games and immediately condemn any interference in our elections by out-of-control intelligence agencies.

  A “news article” published last week in The Washington Post, which set off yet another manufactured media firestorm, alleges that the goal of Russia is to trick people into criticizing establishment Democrats. This is a laughably obvious ploy to stifle legitimate criticism and cast aspersions on Americans who are rightly skeptical of the powerful forces exerting control over the primary election process. We are told the aim of Russia is to “sow division,” but the aim of corporate media and self-serving politicians pushing this narrative is clearly to sow division of their own — by generating baseless suspicion against the Sanders campaign.

  Tulsi is right here – and she’s right when she says that:

  The American people have the right to know this information in order to put Russia’s alleged “interference” into proper perspective. It is a mystery why the Intelligence Community would want to hide these details from us. Instead it is relying on highly dubious and vague insinuations filtered through its preferred media outlets, which seem designed to create a panic rather than actually inform the public about a genuine threat.

  All this does is undermine voters’ trust in our elections, which is what we are constantly told is the goal of Russia.

  She also accurately notes how the “corporate media will do everything they can to turn the general election into a contest of who is going to be ‘tougher’ on Russia. This tactic is necessary to propagandize the American people into shelling over their hard-earned tax dollars to the Pentagon to fund the highly lucrative nuclear arms race that the military-industrial complex craves.”

  Tulsi Gabbard may not be in the democratic race much longer, but that’s not because she lacks guts.  Indeed, her willingness to buck the system – and her commitment to making the world a less militaristic place – make her a notable candidate.  She’s been a noble voice crying in a corrupt and self-serving wilderness.

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 03/02/2020 – 19:20

• Bill Fleckenstein: Coronavirus Will Cause A "Confidence Crisis" In The Fed
  Bill Fleckenstein: Coronavirus Will Cause A “Confidence Crisis” In The Fed

  Money manager and metals specialist Bill Fleckenstein appeared on the Quoth the Raven Podcast on Sunday to give his thoughts about gold, the market’s reaction to coronavirus and the Fed’s coming “confidence crisis”.

  Gold

  First, talking about last week’s move in gold, Fleckenstein says he doesn’t attribute the move to margin calls, as many had speculated. He instead says that gold likely just fell victim to “hot money”, which he noted often happens when gold spot rallies hard and the miners don’t follow – exactly what happened last week.

  Bill said:

  “Gold has gone up, but the mining stocks really didn’t participate. That concerned me because when the mining stock sputter and gold keeps going, then gold gets hit,” he says.

  He continued:

  “When gold was spiking on the coronavirus news, it didn’t quite act right in conjunction with other things, and I was a little nervous. Then, of course, it got destroyed on Friday. I suspect there was a lot of trend following money in gold. A lot of hot money. Hot money because it’s going up.“

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  The Market’s Volatility

  The rally late last week was because people thought the “Fed was going to save them”. Fleckenstein says he doesn’t believe it to be the case that the Fed is going to give the market a rate cut anytime soon. He thinks the market will have to crash further before central banks intervene.

  He also doesn’t think we’ve seen real panic in the equity markets yet. 

  “When I look at the personalities of some of the absolute crap, like Tesla, they’re still valued like a total joke. I don’t think we saw a hell of a lot of panic,” he says.

  “This was not about illiquidity”.

  The Fed’s Coming Crisis

  Bill continued: “The Central Banks are going to get panicked. They’re panic prone because they’re so stupid,” he says.

  He also thinks the market is eventually going to wise-up to what the Fed is doing: 

  “This is the moment in time we have been waiting for. Those of us who think these central bank policies are no good. We’re at the moment in time where they could lose credibility to a certain degree,” he says of the Federal Reserve.

  “Slowly but surely people could realize it’s not working.”

  He continued: “The Fed probably won’t cut today and the market’s going to keep getting tatered until the Fed does. But the real opportunity on the short side will be the big rally after when the Fed cuts. That rally ought to fail. If that failed rally occurs and they start down again, they will accelerate a lot, and you will have broken the psychology of the ‘The Fed can rescue us’.”

  “Then you can have much more of the crash. That’s kind of the road map that I see,” he says.

  You can listen to the entire podcast here:

  *  *  *

  The QTR Podcast is a completely, 100% listener supported podcast that is always going to be free. The podcast is full time work, if you enjoy the content, please support the QTR Podcast in any, or all of the following ways:

  Please make a small recurring donation, which is gratefully accepted at: https://www.patreon.com/QTRResearch

  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 03/02/2020 – 19:00