• Escobar: The Power Troika Trumps Biden In West Asia
  Escobar: The Power Troika Trumps Biden In West Asia

  Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Cradle,

  The presidents of Russia, Iran, and Turkey convened to discuss critical issues pertaining to West Asia, with the illegal US occupation of Syria a key talking point.

  

  Oil and gas, wheat and grains, missiles and drones – the hottest topics in global geopolitics today – were all on the agenda in Tehran this week.

  The Tehran summit uniting Iran-Russia-Turkey was a fascinating affair in more ways than one. Ostensibly about the Astana peace process in Syria, launched in 2017, the summit joint statement duly noted that Iran, Russia and (recently rebranded) Turkiye will continue, “cooperating to eliminate terrorists” in Syria and “won’t accept new facts in Syria in the name of defeating terrorism.”

  That’s a wholesale rejection of the “war on terror” exceptionalist unipolarity that once ruled West Asia.

  Standing up to the global sheriff

  Russian President Vladimir Putin, in his own speech, was even more explicit. He stressed “specific steps to promote the intra-Syrian inclusive political dialogue” and most of called a spade a spade: “The western states led by the US are strongly encouraging separatist sentiment in some areas of the country and plundering its natural resources with a view to ultimately pulling the Syrian state apart.”

  So there will be “extra steps in our trilateral format” aimed at “stabilizing the situation in those areas” and crucially, “returning control to the legitimate government of Syria.” For better or for worse, the days of imperial plunder will be over.

  The bilateral meetings on the summit’s sidelines – Putin/Raisi and Putin/Erdogan – were even more intriguing. Context is key here: the Tehran gathering took place after Putin’s visit to Turkmenistan in late June for the 6th Caspian summit, where all the littoral nations, Iran included, were present, and after Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s travels in Algeria, Bahrain, Oman, and Saudi Arabia, where he met all his Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) counterparts.

  Moscow’s moment

  So we see Russian diplomacy carefully weaving its geopolitical tapestry from West Asia to Central Asia – with everybody and his neighbor eager to talk and to listen to Moscow. As it stands, the Russia-Turkey entente cordiale tends to lean towards conflict management, and is strong on trade relations. Iran-Russia is a completely different ball game: much more of a strategic partnership.

  So it’s hardly a coincidence that the National Oil Company of Iran (NIOC), timed to the Tehran summit, announced the signing of a $40 billion strategic cooperation agreement with Russia’s Gazprom. That’s the largest foreign investment in the history of Iran’s energy industry – badly needed since the early 2000s. Seven deals worth $4 billion apply to the development of oil fields; others focus on the construction of new export gas pipelines and LNG projects.

  Kremlin advisor Yury Ushakov deliciously leaked that Putin and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in their private meeting, “discussed conceptual issues.” Translation: he means grand strategy, as in the evolving, complex process of Eurasia integration, in which the three key nodes are Russia, Iran and China, now intensifying their interconnection. The Russia-Iran strategic partnership largely mirrors the key points of the China-Iran strategic partnership.

  Iran says ‘no’ to NATO

  Khamenei, on NATO, did tell it like it is: “If the road is open for NATO, then the organization sees no borders. If it had not been stopped in Ukraine, then after a while the alliance would have started a war under the pretext of Crimea.”

  There were no leaks on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) impasse between the US and Iran – but it’s clear, based on the recent negotiations in Vienna, that Moscow will not interfere with Tehran’s nuclear decisions. Not only are Tehran-Moscow-Beijing fully aware of who’s preventing the JCPOA from getting back on track, they also see how this counter-productive stalling process prevents the collective west from badly needed access to Iranian oil.

  Then there’s the weapons front. Iran is one of the world’s leaders in drone production: Pelican, Arash, Homa, Chamrosh, Jubin, Ababil, Bavar, recon drones, attack drones, even kamikaze drones, cheap and effective, mostly deployed from naval platforms in West Asia.

  Tehran’s official position is not to supply weapons to nations at war – which would in principle invalidate dodgy US “intel” on their supply to Russia in Ukraine. Yet that could always happen under the radar, considering that Tehran is very much interested in buying Russian aerial defense systems and state of the art fighter jets. After the end of the UN Security Council-enforced embargo, Russia can sell whatever conventional weapons to Iran it sees fit.

  Russian military analysts are fascinated by the conclusions Iranians reached when it was established they would stand no chance against a NATO armada; essentially they bet on pro-level guerrilla war (a lesson learned from Afghanistan). In Syria, Iraq and Yemen they deployed trainers to guide villagers in their fight against Salafi-jihadis; produced tens of thousands of large-caliber sniper rifles, ATGMs, and thermals; and of course perfected their drone assembly lines (with excellent cameras to surveil US positions).

  Not to mention that simultaneously the Iranians were building quite capable long-range missiles. No wonder Russian military analysts estimate there’s much to learn tactically from the Iranians – and not only on the drone front.

  The Putin-Sultan ballet

  Now to the Putin-Erdogan get together – always an attention-grabbing geopolitical ballet, especially considering the Sultan has not yet decided to hop on the Eurasia integration high-speed train.

  Putin diplomatically “expressed gratitude” for the discussions on food and grain issues, while reiterating that “not all issues on the export of Ukrainian grain from the Black Sea ports are resolved, but progress is made.”

  Putin was referring to Turkiye’s Defense Minister Hulusi Akar, who earlier this week assured that setting up an operations center in Istanbul, establishing joint controls at the port exit and arrival points, and carefully monitoring the navigational safety on the transfer routes are issues that may be solved in the next few days.

  Apparently Putin-Erdogan also discussed Nagorno-Karabakh (no details).

  What a few leaks certainly did not reveal is that on Syria, for all practical purposes, the situation is blocked. That favors Russia – whose main priority as it stands is Donbass. Wily Erdogan knows it – and that’s why he may have tried to extract some “concessions” on “the Kurdish question” and Nagorno-Karabakh. Whatever Putin, Russia’s Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev and Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev may really think about Erdogan, they certainly evaluate how priceless is to cultivate such an erratic partner capable of driving the collective west totally bonkers.

  Istanbul this summer has been turned into a sort of Third Rome, at least for expelled-from-Europe Russian tourists: they are everywhere. Yet the most crucial geoeconomic development these past few months is that the western-provoked collapse of trade/supply lines along the borders between Russia and the EU – from the Baltic to the Black Sea – finally highlighted the wisdom and economic sense of the International North-South Transportation Corridor (INTSC): a major Russia-Iran-India geopolitical and geoeconomic integration success.

  When Moscow talks to Kiev, it talks via Istanbul. NATO, as the Global South well knows, does not do diplomacy. So any possibility of dialogue between Russians and a few educated westerners takes place in Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan and the UAE. West Asia as well as the Caucasus, incidentally, did not subscribe to the western sanctions hysteria against Russia.

  Say farewell to the ‘teleprompter guy’

  Now compare all of the above with the recent visit to the region by the so-called “leader of the free world,” who merrily alternates between shaking hands with invisible people to reading – literally – whatever is scrolling on a teleprompter. We’re talking of US President Joe Biden, of course.

  Fact: Biden threatened Iran with military strikes and as a mere supplicant, begged the Saudis to pump more oil to offset the “turbulence” in the global energy markets caused by the collective west’s sanction hysteria. Context: the glaring absence of any vision or anything even resembling a draft of foreign policy plan for West Asia.

  So oil prices duly jumped upward after Biden’s trip: Brent crude rose more than four percent to $105 a barrel, bringing prices back to above $100 after a lull of several months.

  The heart of the matter is that if OPEC or OPEC+ (which includes Russia) ever decide to increase their oil supplies, they will do it based on their internal deliberations, and not under exceptionalist pressure.

  As for the imperial threat of military strikes on Iran, it qualifies as pure dementia. The whole Persian Gulf – not to mention the whole of West Asia – knows that were US/Israel to attack Iran, fierce retaliation would simply evaporate with the region’s energy production, with apocalyptic consequences including the collapse of trillions of dollars in derivatives.

  Biden then had the gall to say, “We have made progress in strengthening our relations with the Gulf states. We will not leave a vacuum for Russia and China to fill in the Middle East”.

  Well, in real life it is the “indispensable nation” that has self-morphed into a vacuum. Only bought-and-paid for Arab vassals – most of them monarchs – believe in the building of an “Arab NATO” (copyright Jordan’s King Abdullah) to take on Iran. Russia and China are already all over the place in West Asia and beyond.

  De-Dollarization, not just Eurasian integration

  It’s not only the new logistical corridor from Moscow and St. Petersburg to Astrakhan and then, via the Caspian, to Enzeli in Iran and on to Mumbai that is shaking things up. It’s about increasing bilateral trade that bypasses the US dollar. It’s about BRICS+, which Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Egypt are dying to be part of. It’s about the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which formally accepts Iran as a full member this coming September (and soon Belarus as well). It’s about BRICS+, the SCO, China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU) interconnected in their path towards a Greater Eurasia Partnership.

  West Asia may still harbor a small collection of imperial vassals with zero sovereignty who depend on the west’s financial and military ‘assistance,’ but that’s the past. The future is now – with Top Three BRICS (Russia, India, China) slowly but surely coordinating their overlapping strategies across West Asia, with Iran involved in all of them.

  And then there’s the Big Global Picture: whatever the circumvolutions and silly schemes of the US-concocted “oil price cap” variety, the fact is that Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela – the top powerful energy-producing nations – are absolutely in sync: on Russia, on the collective west, and on the needs of a real multipolar world.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 07/22/2022 – 23:40

• US Army Embraces "EV Future" With New Electric Hummer
  US Army Embraces “EV Future” With New Electric Hummer

  On Earth Day (Apr. 22), President Biden stated, “every vehicle in the United States military is going to be climate-friendly.” He said, “we’re spending billions of dollars to do it.” 

  Months later, the U.S. Army bought a 2022 Hummer EV pickup from General Motors’ subsidiary GM Defense, Detroit Free Press reported.

  

  “The U.S. Army has bought one Hummer through GM Defense,” said Sonia Taylor, GM Defense spokeswoman. She wouldn’t reveal how much the Army paid but said the Hummer retails for approximately $108,700. 

  Taylor said that selling the Hummer is a ‘stepping stone’ to getting the service electrified. She added:

  “We are trying to help defense and government partners transition to an E.V. future, so this is one of the steps.

  “Our industry moves real slow. Slower than the commercial market. But this is a positive step in that direction.”

  The Army will receive the Hummer “no later than Aug. 31,” Taylor said, adding she doesn’t know what vehicle testing the service will conduct and where. 

  Detroit Free Press points out the Army’s purchase description summarized in its bid: 

  “The purpose of this requirement is to procure a new light to heavy duty Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) or series-hybrid electric wheeled vehicle, for Government analysis and demonstration.”

  Even though GM Defense recently rolled out a prototype eLRV, or electric Light Reconnaissance Vehicle, the Army appears to be receiving the civilian model (for now). 

  

  Biden’s future “climate-friendly” military could be fraught with sacrifices, including diminishing warfighting capabilities, considering battlefields don’t have convenient charging stations. It’s possible EVs could be used in nontactical fleets. 

  The Army’s going to have fun testing the new Hummer EV. It has more than 1,000 horsepower, and 11,500 pound-feet of wheel torque, allowing it to achieve 0-60 mph in 3 seconds. 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 07/22/2022 – 23:20

• Digital Authoritarianism: AI Surveillance Signals The Death Of Privacy
  Digital Authoritarianism: AI Surveillance Signals The Death Of Privacy

  Authored by John W. Whitehead & Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

  “There are no private lives. This a most important aspect of modern life. One of the biggest transformations we have seen in our society is the diminution of the sphere of the private. We must reasonably now all regard the fact that there are no secrets and nothing is private. Everything is public.” 

  – Philip K. Dick

  Nothing is private.

  

  We teeter on the cusp of a cultural, technological and societal revolution the likes of which have never been seen before.

  While the political Left and Right continue to make abortion the face of the debate over the right to privacy in America, the government and its corporate partners, aided by rapidly advancing technology, are reshaping the world into one in which there is no privacy at all.

  Nothing that was once private is protected.

  We have not even begun to register the fallout from the tsunami bearing down upon us in the form of AI (artificial intelligence) surveillance, and yet it is already re-orienting our world into one in which freedom is almost unrecognizable.

  AI surveillance harnesses the power of artificial intelligence and widespread surveillance technology to do what the police state lacks the manpower and resources to do efficiently or effectively: be everywhere, watch everyone and everything, monitor, identify, catalogue, cross-check, cross-reference, and collude.

  Everything that was once private is now up for grabs to the right buyer.

  Governments and corporations alike have heedlessly adopted AI surveillance technologies without any care or concern for their long-term impact on the rights of the citizenry.

  As a special report by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace warns, “A growing number of states are deploying advanced AI surveillance tools to monitor, track, and surveil citizens to accomplish a range of policy objectives—some lawful, others that violate human rights, and many of which fall into a murky middle ground.”

  Indeed, with every new AI surveillance technology that is adopted and deployed without any regard for privacy, Fourth Amendment rights and due process, the rights of the citizenry are being marginalized, undermined and eviscerated.

  Cue the rise of digital authoritarianism.

  Digital authoritarianism, as the Center for Strategic and International Studies cautions, involves the use of information technology to surveil, repress, and manipulate the populace, endangering human rights and civil liberties, and co-opting and corrupting the foundational principles of democratic and open societies, “including freedom of movement, the right to speak freely and express political dissent, and the right to personal privacy, online and off.”

  The seeds of digital authoritarianism were planted in the wake of the 9/11 attacks, with the passage of the USA Patriot Act. A massive 342-page wish list of expanded powers for the FBI and CIA, the Patriot Act justified broader domestic surveillance, the logic being that if government agents knew more about each American, they could distinguish the terrorists from law-abiding citizens.

  It sounded the death knell for the freedoms enshrined in the Bill of Rights, especially the Fourth Amendment, and normalized the government’s mass surveillance powers.

  Writing for the New York Times, Jeffrey Rosen observed that “before Sept. 11, the idea that Americans would voluntarily agree to live their lives under the gaze of a network of biometric surveillance cameras, peering at them in government buildings, shopping malls, subways and stadiums, would have seemed unthinkable, a dystopian fantasy of a society that had surrendered privacy and anonymity.”

  Who could have predicted that 50 years after George Orwell typed the final words to his dystopian novel 1984, “He loved Big Brother,” we would come to love Big Brother.

  Yet that is exactly what has come to pass.

  After 9/11, Rosen found that “people were happy to give up privacy without experiencing a corresponding increase in security. More concerned about feeling safe than actually being safe, they demanded the construction of vast technological architectures of surveillance even though the most empirical studies suggested that the proliferation of surveillance cameras had ‘no effect on violent crime’ or terrorism.”

  In the decades following 9/11, a massive security-industrial complex arose that was fixated on militarization, surveillance, and repression.

  Surveillance is the key.

  We’re being watched everywhere we go. Speed cameras. Red light cameras. Police body cameras. Cameras on public transportation. Cameras in stores. Cameras on public utility poles. Cameras in cars. Cameras in hospitals and schools. Cameras in airports.

  We’re being recorded at least 50 times a day.

  It’s estimated that there are upwards of 85 million surveillance cameras in the U.S. alone, second only to China.

  On any given day, the average American going about his daily business is monitored, surveilled, spied on and tracked in more than 20 different ways by both government and corporate eyes and ears.

  Beware of what you say, what you read, what you write, where you go, and with whom you communicate, because it will all be recorded, stored and used against you eventually, at a time and place of the government’s choosing.

  Yet it’s not just what we say, where we go and what we buy that is being tracked.

  We’re being surveilled right down to our genes, thanks to a potent combination of hardware, software and data collection that scans our biometrics—our faces, irises, voices, genetics, microbiomes, scent, gait, heartbeat, breathing, behaviors—runs them through computer programs that can break the data down into unique “identifiers,” and then offers them up to the government and its corporate allies for their respective uses.

  As one AI surveillance advocate proclaimed, “Surveillance is no longer only a watchful eye, but a predictive one as well.” For instance, Emotion AI, an emerging technology that is gaining in popularity, uses facial recognition technology “to analyze expressions based on a person’s faceprint to detect their internal emotions or feelings, motivations and attitudes.” China claims its AI surveillance can already read facial expressions and brain waves in order to determine the extent to which members of the public are grateful, obedient and willing to comply with the Communist Party.

  This is the slippery slope that leads to the thought police.

  The technology is already being used “by border guards to detect threats at border checkpoints, as an aid for detection and diagnosis of patients for mood disorders, to monitor classrooms for boredom or disruption, and to monitor human behavior during video calls.”

  For all intents and purposes, we now have a fourth branch of government: the surveillance state.

  This fourth branch came into being without any electoral mandate or constitutional referendum, and yet it possesses superpowers, above and beyond those of any other government agency save the military. It is all-knowing, all-seeing and all-powerful. It operates beyond the reach of the president, Congress and the courts, and it marches in lockstep with the corporate elite who really call the shots in Washington, DC.

  The government’s “technotyranny” surveillance apparatus has become so entrenched and entangled with its police state apparatus that it’s hard to know anymore where law enforcement ends and surveillance begins.

  The short answer: they have become one and the same entity. The police state has passed the baton to the surveillance state, which has shifted into high gear with the help of artificial intelligence technologies. The COVID-19 pandemic helped to further centralize digital power in the hands of the government at the expense of the citizenry’s privacy rights.

  “From cameras that identify the faces of passersby to algorithms that keep tabs on public sentiment online, artificial intelligence (AI)-powered tools are opening new frontiers in state surveillance around the world.” So begins the Carnegie Endowment’s report on AI surveillance note.

  “Law enforcement, national security, criminal justice, and border management organizations in every region are relying on these technologies—which use statistical pattern recognition, machine learning, and big data analytics—to monitor citizens.”

  In the hands of tyrants and benevolent dictators alike, AI surveillance is the ultimate means of repression and control, especially through the use of smart city/safe city platforms, facial recognition systems, and predictive policing. These technologies are also being used by violent extremist groups, as well as sex, child, drug, and arms traffickers for their own nefarious purposes.

  China, the role model for our dystopian future, has been a major force in deploying AI surveillance on its own citizens, especially by way of its social credit systems, which it employs to identify, track and segregate its “good” citizens from the “bad.”

  Social media credit scores assigned to Chinese individuals and businesses categorize them on whether or not they are worthy of being part of society. A real-name system—which requires people to use government-issued ID cards to buy mobile sims, obtain social media accounts, take a train, board a plane, or even buy groceries—coupled with social media credit scores ensures that those blacklisted as “unworthy” are banned from accessing financial markets, buying real estate or travelling by air or train. Among the activities that can get you labeled unworthy are taking reserved seats on trains or causing trouble in hospitals.

  In much the same way that Chinese products have infiltrated almost every market worldwide and altered consumer dynamics, China is now exporting its “authoritarian tech” to governments worldwide ostensibly in an effort to spread its brand of totalitarianism worldwide. In fact, both China and the United States have led the way in supplying the rest of the world with AI surveillance, sometimes at a subsidized rate.

  This is how totalitarianism conquers the world.

  While countries with authoritarian regimes have been eager to adopt AI surveillance, as the Carnegie Endowment’s research makes clear, liberal democracies are also “aggressively using AI tools to police borders, apprehend potential criminals, monitor citizens for bad behavior, and pull out suspected terrorists from crowds.”

  Moreover, it’s easy to see how the China model for internet control has been integrated into the American police state’s efforts to flush out so-called anti-government, domestic extremists.

  According to journalist Adrian Shahbaz’s in-depth report, there are nine elements to the Chinese model of digital authoritarianism when it comes to censoring speech and targeting activists: 1) dissidents suffer from persistent cyber attacks and phishing; 2) social media, websites, and messaging apps are blocked; 3) posts that criticize government officials are removed; 4) mobile and internet access are revoked as punishment for activism; 5) paid commentators drown out government criticism; 6) new laws tighten regulations on online media; 7) citizens’ behavior monitored via AI and surveillance tools; 9) individuals regularly arrested for posts critical of the government; and 9) online activists are made to disappear.

  You don’t even have to be a critic of the government to get snared in the web of digital censorship and AI surveillance.

  The danger posed by the surveillance state applies equally to all of us: lawbreaker and law-abider alike.

  When the government sees all and knows all and has an abundance of laws to render even the most seemingly upstanding citizen a criminal and lawbreaker, then the old adage that you’ve got nothing to worry about if you’ve got nothing to hide no longer applies.

  As Orwell wrote in 1984, “You had to live—did live, from habit that became instinct—in the assumption that every sound you made was overheard, and, except in darkness, every movement scrutinized.”

  In an age of too many laws, too many prisons, too many government spies, and too many corporations eager to make a fast buck at the expense of the American taxpayer, we are all guilty of some transgression or other.

  No one is spared.

  As Elise Thomas writes for Wired: “New surveillance tech means you’ll never be anonymous again.”

  It won’t be long before we find ourselves looking back on the past with longing, back to an age where we could speak to whomever we wanted, buy whatever we wanted, think whatever we wanted, go wherever we wanted, feel whatever we wanted without those thoughts, words and activities being tracked, processed and stored by corporate giants, sold to government agencies, and used against us by militarized police with their army of futuristic technologies.

  Tread cautiously: as I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People and in its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, 1984 has become an operation manual for the omnipresent, modern-day AI surveillance state.

  Without constitutional protections in place to guard against encroachments on our rights when power, AI technology and militaristic governance converge, it won’t be long before Philip K. Dick’s rules for survival become our governing reality: “If, as it seems, we are in the process of becoming a totalitarian society in which the state apparatus is all-powerful, the ethics most important for the survival of the true, free, human individual would be: cheat, lie, evade, fake it, be elsewhere, forge documents, build improved electronic gadgets in your garage that’ll outwit the gadgets used by the authorities.”

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 07/22/2022 – 23:00

• Georgia Ends Abortion With 'Heartbeat' Law After Federal Court Finds It Is Constitutional
  Georgia Ends Abortion With ‘Heartbeat’ Law After Federal Court Finds It Is Constitutional

  After the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, finding that abortion is not a constitutionally protected right and left abortion laws up to individual states, there was considerable clamor by pro-abortion activists about potentially stalling state decisions through legal wrangling.  So far, their ability to stop states from representing their constituents has been limited.  

  Georgia’s Heartbeat bill was actually passed by the Georgia General Assembly into law 2019, but it was blocked in 2020 when the US District Court ruled that the bill was unconstitutional.  Everything changed after the Supreme Court decision in June.  The law makes abortions illegal after a baby forms a heartbeat, usually at six weeks (babies also form brains and synapse activity at 6-8 weeks), and it matches with similar laws in Texas, Ohio, Oklahoma and many other states. 

  The law was vindicated by a federal appeals court this week when a three-judge panel ruled that the Supreme Court decision on the Dobbs case negated pro-abortion arguments of constitutionality.  The appeals court added that “no clear right to abortion exists within the constitution” and that the state of Georgia is free to prohibit the practice.  

  

  Three exceptions are written into the law: 

  • First, if a pregnancy occurs due to rape or incest it can be terminated as long as a police report is filed documenting the crime. 

  • Second, if it is determined that the pregnancy presents a serious risk to the life of the mother. 

  • Third, if there is a medical condition which naturally renders the fetus unviable.

  The law also defines a “natural person” to include unborn children, granting personhood to babies still in the womb.  

  After 50 years of Roe v. Wade the practice has been well ingrained into our culture in medical terms, yet, the conflict over the Supreme Court decision in 1973 has never lost any momentum and it has never been fully accepted as legitimate.  Around half of Americans say that abortion should be legal, but only under limited circumstances according to polls.  

  This was the root argument that abortion advocates made in 1973 after the decision on Roe v. Wade – That abortion would be legal, but with numerous limitations.  Planned Parenthood worked extensively to reduce such limitations from state to state through a hailstorm of lawsuits until abortion was widely held to be a primary solution to any and all pregnancy concerns

  With a large number of contraception options in play today, the “stigma” of motherhood out of wedlock non-existent, as well as adoption foundations and charities in place, the notion of using abortion as a form of contraception has lost legitimacy.  Now, as the Georgia case shows, the decision is once again back in state hands and voter hands. 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 07/22/2022 – 22:40

• How Mattis Betrayed His Fellow Marines At The Behest Of The Deep State
  How Mattis Betrayed His Fellow Marines At The Behest Of The Deep State

  Authored by Major Fred Galvin (USMC-Ret) via The Publius National Post,

  How the Pentagon’s top-brass generals burned the careers of subordinates but then pivoted to lucrative careers all while losing the wars they were supposed to be winning

  

  My new book, A Few Bad Men, details the mendacity and mad dishonesty of retired Marine General James “Mad Dog” Mattis. The fact that it was written by a Marine once under his command, whom he betrayed for the sake of politics and getting to slap on another star, says volumes about this once-lionized figure.

  It all goes back to an incident in Afghanistan in 2007, and the Court of Inquiry trial of innocent Marines that followed, which Mattis himself instigated.

  Lt. Colonel Steve Morgan, USMC (retired) and jury member of the 2008 Marine Special Operations Command’s Court of Inquiry says in the foreword to A Few Bad Men, “This is a case of a perfect storm of toxic leadership.” 

  The most legendary Marine of all time, Lieutenant General John A. Lejeune, the 13th commandant of the Marine Corps, laid out clearly how to effectively nurture and lead Marines:

  “Make every effort by means of historical, educational, and patriotic addresses to cultivate in their hearts a deep abiding love of the Corps and Country” and “the key to combat effectiveness is unity and esprit that characterizes itself in complete irrevocable mutual trust.” 

  If only General Mattis had taken this to heart.

  On February 3, 2005, when Lieutenant General Mattis was attending the Armed Forces Communications and Electronic Associations forum in San Diego, he said: “You go into Afghanistan, you got guys who slap women around for five years because they didn’t wear a veil. You know, guys like that ain’t got no manhood left anyway. So it’s a hell of a lot of fun to shoot them. It’s fun to shoot some people. I’ll be right up there with you. I like brawling.” 

  He also likes hearing the sound of his own voice.

  During this same time, Mattis partnered with General David Petraeus to develop the joint counterinsurgency doctrine of winning hearts and minds. Mattis hijacked the phrase from the Hippocratic oath for his Marines to follow, “First do no harm.” This sounded good to the media and politicians in Washington, but Marines are not physicians and Afghanistan was no sterile operating room. It was a hellscape in which Marines constantly faced threats and the possibility of betrayal from 360 degrees. Mattis’ Marine Hippocratic oath sent mixed signals for his Marines, who had it on his good authority that “It’s a hell of a lot of fun to shoot . . . some people.”  

  Just over two years later, I led the First Marine Special Operations Task Force. We landed in Afghanistan on February 12, 2007. Before long the First was involved in a complex ambush near the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, on March 4, 2007. We were attacked by a suicide car-bomb, waves of Taliban fighters on both sides of the road, a sniper, and a mob that placed an obstacle to trap us in an ambush kill box. We  successfully counterattacked, killed the Taliban terrorists, avoided civilian casualties, and returned to base within 20 minutes, where we learned of the Taliban’s swift information operations campaign that was already underway, accusing us of mass-murdering Afghan civilians. The Taliban’s version of events went out within 20 minutes through the BBC followed by countless others. Ultimately, the president of Afghanistan, Hamid Karzai, condemned our actions and the Army generals kicked us out of Afghanistan within five days. Crushing the Taliban in battle morphed into a PR victory for the extremists in the media and a weakening of the allied forces in country. Due process went right out the window.

  Ironically, Mattis was assigned as the convening authority by the commandant of the Marine Corps in August 2007, to be responsible for the investigation and a Court of Inquiry into our March 4 battle. Mattis received the results of my polygraph test and the sworn testimony of all the Marines involved in the firefight, confirming that on that morning no Marines said they killed any civilians or saw any civilians killed. 

  Unlike Lejeune’s comments of “cultivating a deep abiding love of Country and Corps in the hearts of your Marines and that the key to combat effectiveness is unity and esprit that characterizes itself in complete irrevocable mutual trust,” Mattis unleashed an unprecedented 45 criminal investigators and four prosecuting attorneys against the seven Marines falsely accused by the Taliban of mass murder. It would become the longest war crimes trial in Marine Corps history. 

  Mattis placed a “protective order” (a.k.a. gag order) prohibiting the two Marine officers who he named as codefendants from making any statements to the press or face punishment. Our attorneys would face disbarment. The already unlevel playing field was tilted hard against the Marines who had won a battlefield victory under fire.

  Additionally, Mattis’ prosecution team found perceived vulnerabilities in the Marine commandos and commenced “ethnic targeting” of two Hispanic Marines. Mad Dog’s prosecutors continuously interrogated one of them, and the government manufactured a statement from him that our fire was out of control during the March 4 ambush. 

  The prosecution then threatened to deport the Marine’s mother back to Mexico unless he signed the statement. That Marine testified he was coerced into signing the prosecution’s false statement. Another Hispanic Marine also testified he was repeatedly threatened by the prosecution to take a polygraph, which was not a legal order, but the prosecution ordered him to anyway. None of the other Marines were subjected to these strongarm Gestapo tactics.

  Mattis turned the prosecution over to his successor in the fall of 2007 as he received his promotion with a fourth star. The following year, the trial acquitted all of us. No thanks to Mad Dog Mattis. He got his star. A few bad prosecutors under his watch cost the Marines a few good men, and diminished America’s position in Afghanistan at a time when that war might still have been won.

  Mattis went on to serve as the commander of all U.S. Forces in the Middle East at U.S. Central Command in Tampa, Florida. As I detail in A Few Bad Men, there he came under the influence of Elizabeth Holmes, founder and CEO of Theranos. Holmes had a device she claimed could detect all kinds of disease in a few drops of blood. It would change the world, if it worked. Holmes contacted Mattis in August 2012 and wrote Pentagon officials requesting, “How do we overcome this new obstacle? I have tried to get this device tested in theater asap, legally and ethically. This appears to be relatively straight-forward yet we’re a year into this and not yet deployed.” 

  The main problem Mattis was willing to overlook was that the FDA had not approved Theranos’ blood testing technology to be used on our troops in Afghanistan, but Mattis was hoping he could push it through, right or wrong. 

  Mattis retired and went on to make a fortune serving on four corporate boards, including Theranos and military contractor General Dynamics. Theranos’ technology would not only be denied FDA approval, but it was proven to be a fraud. During the Elizabeth Holmes trial, Mattis, who had served as a Theranos board member for several years, testified that he was unaware of any of Theranos’ scandalous actions. This seems unlikely, given Mad Dog’s legendary tenacity, and the fact that he had a fiduciary duty to know what was going on.

  Holmes’ device never worked. She is now a convicted fraudster. Was Mattis her gullible mark or a greedy participant?

  Mattis’ disgraceful actions are laid bare in A Few Bad Men. He used his position as secretary of defense to bottle up the Freedom of Information Act requests to get our testimony in that March 4, 2007 ambush exposed. Our shocking testimonies have now been released and tell a terrible story of betrayal by a Marine against other Marines. They reveal why the Pentagon’s top-brass generals who burned the careers of subordinates but then pivoted to lucrative careers with every defense contracting company lost their forever war in Afghanistan, and really, haven’t won a war in decades.

  *  *  *

  Major Fred Galvin (USMC-Ret), author of A Few Bad Men: The True Story of U.S. Marines Ambushed in Afghanistan and Betrayed in America.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 07/22/2022 – 22:20

• President's Party Up Against Poor Odds In The Midterms
  President’s Party Up Against Poor Odds In The Midterms

  The Democrats are controlling the House, the Senate and the presidency at the moment, but the midterm election coming up at the end of the year has the power to change this Status Quo. With the Republicans’ conservative roll-back in full swing, you would expect Democratic voters on the left to be energized, but the party is up against a historical precedent at the same time: The president’s party rarely does well in the midterms.

  As Statista’s Katharina Buchholz shows, based on data by The American Presidency Project, there is only two presidents of the modern age who could expand their party’s showing in both chambers in the midterms or at least not lose ground: Bill Clinton, during his second term, and George W. Bush, during his first, when he managed to flip the Senate in his favor while holding on to the House just one year after 9/11.

  Against these few success stories stands a long line of defeats.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  Barack Obama lost control of the House forever two years into his eight-year term and suffered another major setback in his second midterms when he lost the Senate as well. Bill Clinton in 1994 lost control of both chambers of Congress by the middle of his first term and never won them back in the six years that followed despite the gains he made in his second midterm election. After George W. Bush’s successful first midterms, debacle followed four years later as he lost both chambers in 2006 amid fall-out from Hurricane Katrina and the war in Iraq.

  While the proof of midterm losses for sitting presidents is resounding, the reasons behind them are more muddled. Nobody really knows why the midterms are so hard for incumbents irrespective of the political climate. Depending on how a president is perceived by his voters, he could be hit by either apathy or disappointment. Other than 9/11, which helped George W. Bush succeed, other national crises have not proven a good predictor for midterms success, which leave two more possible culprits: presidential approval and the state of the economy.

  

  Neither will work in Biden’s favor in November.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 07/22/2022 – 22:00

• Biden Ripped For $1BN Arms Deal With UAE After Khashoggi Lawyer Given 3 Years In Prison
  Biden Ripped For $1BN Arms Deal With UAE After Khashoggi Lawyer Given 3 Years In Prison

  Authored by Brett Wilkins via Common Dreams,

  Progressive Dems this week decried the Biden administration’s approval of a nearly $1 billion weapons support deal with the United Arab Emirates—a move that came days after an Abu Dhabi court controversially sentenced a Virginia civil rights lawyer to three years in prison.

  The US State Department’s approval of the $980.4 million agreement for “upgrades and sustainment” of the UAE’s fleet of Boeing C-17 Globemaster III military transport planes was announced Tuesday, two days after the Abu Dhabi Criminal Court sentenced Asim Ghafoor to three years behind bars, a fine of over $816,000, and deportation upon completion of his sentence for alleged money laundering and tax evasion.

  Ghafoor, a U.S. citizen who previously represented murdered Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi and his fiancée, Hatice Cengiz, was arrested Thursday at Dubai International Airport while en route to Turkey to attend a family wedding, the group Democracy in the Arab World Now (DAWN)—on whose board Ghafoor serves—said Friday.

  

  The US-UAE deal was announced days after Biden met with and praised leaders of Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, countries accused of perpetrating human rights violations ranging from war crimes and apartheid to the killing, and persecution of U.S. citizens.

  “It’s clear that Biden isn’t breaking with Trump on the Mideast,” MSNBC journalist Mehdi Hasan tweeted Tuesday, a reference to then-President Donald Trump’s embrace of Arab dictators and unconditional support for Israel’s right-wing government. “Israel, Saudi, the UAE… Biden [is] doubling down on support for them, even when they kill or detain U.S. citizens and residents.”

  US lawmakers, activists, and journalists are leading condemnation of Ghafoor’s imprisonment. Middle East Eye reports nearly a dozen members of Congress, including Reps. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), and Don Beyer (D-Va.) have demanded Ghafoor’s release.

  “I am appalled that Asim Ghafoor, American lawyer who represented Khashoggi, was detained and imprisoned in UAE based on an in absentia conviction with no notice or opportunity to defend himself,” Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.) tweeted Tuesday, adding that Ghafoor “must be freed and allowed to return to the U.S.”

  It’s clear that Biden isn’t breaking with Trump on the MidEast. Israel, Saudi, the UAE… Biden doubling down on support for them, even when they kill or detain US citizens & residents. And no sign of the Iran nuclear deal being restored either, which Biden once claimed he’d do. https://t.co/d5M5AWXHjP

  — Mehdi Hasan (@mehdirhasan) July 19, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Meanwhile, Cengiz said in a statement Tuesday that she believes Ghafoor’s prosecution was politically motivated. “I have an ongoing civil lawsuit against the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, and his co-conspirators in the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. The trial begins soon,” she explained. “Asim Ghafoor is part of DAWN’s legal team in this lawsuit. I am concerned that the UAE has jailed Asim to intimidate the legal team and myself, and anyone who calls for democracy in the Middle East.”

  Matt Duss, who advises Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) on foreign policy, sardonically questioned the UAE’s commitment to fighting the type of corruption of which Ghafoor is accused.

  “If you believe that UAE, a global destination for kleptocrats’ stolen wealth, has suddenly joined the anti-corruption fight and just coincidentally started with Jamaal Khashoggi’s lawyer, I would very much like to invite you to my poker game,” he tweeted.

  In explaining why Ghafoor was arrested, the Emirati state news outlet WAM claimed the apprehension was the result of “mutual coordination to combat transnational crimes with the United States.”

  However, State Department Spokesperson Ned Price said during a Monday press briefing that the U.S. did not want Ghafoor arrested, and that administration officials “conveyed our expectations to our Emirati partners that Mr. Ghafoor receive continued consular access, that he be afforded a fair and transparent legal process, and that he be treated humanely.”

  Price stated that “we see no indication at this point that [Ghafoor’s] detention has anything to do with his association with Jamal Khashoggi, but we’re still gathering information.”

  #UAE had Sheikha Latifa, daughter of the ruler of Dubai (al-Maktoum), dragooned home after attempting to flee UAE in 2018. UAE rights defender #AhmedMansoor remains in jail. The credulity of @StateDeptSpox statement in #UAE‘s “due process” for detention of #AsimGhafoor is absurd. https://t.co/UJEnTzSgVa

  — Michael Page (@MichaelARPage) July 20, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  According to The Washington Post, the U.S. Department of Justice, when asked if it requested an Emirati investigation of Ghafoor, said that the agency “does not publicly comment on communications with foreign governments on investigative matters, including confirming or denying the very existence of such communications.”

  Although the Biden administration was initially applauded for pausing arms sales to Saudi Arabia and the UAE, human rights defenders have condemned renewed deals including the 2021 sale of tens of billions of dollars worth of Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter jets, armed drones, and munitions to the Emirati government.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 07/22/2022 – 21:40

• Cadillac Reveals New $300,000 Electric Sedan
  Cadillac Reveals New $300,000 Electric Sedan

  “Celestiq has arrived, bringing to life Cadillac’s purest expression of design and innovation. A defining statement of a true Cadillac flagship,” Cadillac tweeted Friday morning while unveiling new images of its $300,000 ultra-luxury electric sedan. 

  The Celestiq is Cadillac’s first major attempt to reclaim its decades-old slogan “Standard of the World” with a handcrafted luxury sedan equipped with an all-wheel-drive electric powertrain capable of a +300-mile driving range and packed with groundbreaking technologies (including a hands-free assisted-driving system). 

  “Those vehicles represented the pinnacle of luxury in their respective eras, and helped make Cadillac the standard of the world,” Tony Roma, chief engineer of the Celestiq. 

  “The Celestiq show car — also a sedan, because the configuration offers the very best luxury experience — builds on that pedigree and captures the spirt of arrival they expressed,” Tony Roma, chief engineer of the Celestiq, said in a statement. 

  Cadillac plans to produce only 500 Celestiqs per year in an $81 million facility at GM’s Global Technology Center in Warren, Michigan. 

  

  We noted ahead of today’s preview that the luxury sedan is scheduled to go into production by late 2023.

  

  Cadillac did not release details about Celestiq’s range, performance, or other metrics.

  

  

  Cadillac appears to be reimagining the future of American luxury, though it’s still a Cadillac… 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 07/22/2022 – 21:20

• Tverberg: Why Raising Rates To Reduce Inflation May Work Out Very Badly
  Tverberg: Why Raising Rates To Reduce Inflation May Work Out Very Badly

  Authored by Gail Tverberg via Our Finite World blog,

  Are we headed for very high energy prices? Or, are we headed for a financial system that starts falling apart? The whole economic system may change remarkably. For example, what many people thought was money, or a promised pension plan, may not really be there when the time comes to get value from it. Shelves in stores may be empty when it comes time to make a purchase.

  Most people do not understand that the world economy is a physics-based system, powered by energy. If the energy is suddenly much less available, there will be a huge problem. The world economy has been powered by a rapidly growing supply of energy for over 200 years.

  

  Figure 1. World energy consumption by fuel based on Vaclav Smil’s estimates from Energy Transitions: History, Requirements and Prospects (Appendix) together with data from BP’s 2011 Statistical Review of World Energy for 1965 and subsequent. Wind and solar are included in Biofuels.

  My concern is that the current attempt to bring inflation down will lead to falling energy supply and a world economy that is rapidly changing for the worse.

  

  Figure 2. Energy amounts for 2010 and prior equal to those in Figure 1, with a corresponding amount for 2020. Future energy for 2030, 2040 and 2050 are rough estimates based on the observation that the world is now reaching extraction limits for both coal and oil.

  Everything I can see says that world leaders are not able to face the possibility that the world is already running seriously short of oil and coal. Future supplies are likely to be much lower, and much more expensive, if they are available at all. Other energy types (including natural gas, nuclear, hydroelectric, wind and solar) are simply add-ons to a system built using coal and oil.

  Current world leaders do not realize that the energy situation is very much like the water level in Lake Mead. Looking at it from the top, there still seems to be water there but, in fact, the required depth is lacking. Water for watering crops will soon be exhausted. The world’s energy supply is not a whole lot different. The supposedly proven reserves do not tell us anything at all. It is the amount of fossil fuels that can be affordably extracted that is important. We have already exceeded the amount that can be affordably extracted. If central banks cut back future energy supplies using higher interest rates, we can expect to encounter major problems going forward.

  In this post, I will try to explain some of the issues involved.

  [1] The amount of energy the economy requires depends very much on population. The greater the world population, the more oil is needed for food production and transportation. Non-oil energy is a bit more flexible in quantity than oil, but the total quantity of energy per capita needs to keep rising to prevent very adverse outcomes.

  

  Figure 3. World per capita energy consumption by source, with the 1950-1980 period of rapid growth highlighted. Amounts are equal to those used in Figure 1, divided by population estimates by Angus Maddison.

  Figure 3 highlights the fact that the period of Rapid Energy Growth between 1950 and 1980 was a period of unprecedented growth in per capita energy consumption. This was a period when many families could afford their own car for the first time. There were enough employment opportunities that, quite often, both spouses could hold down paying jobs outside the home. It was the growing supply of inexpensive fossil fuels that made these jobs available.

  If a person looks closely, it is possible to see that the 1920 to 1940 period was a period of very low growth in energy consumption, relative to population. This was also the period of the Great Depression and the period leading up to World War II. Sluggish energy consumption growth at that time was linked to very undesirable socioeconomic outcomes.

  Energy is like food for the economy. If energy of the right kinds is cheaply available, it is possible to build new roads, pipelines and electricity transmission lines. World trade grows. If available energy is inadequate, major wars tend to break out and standards of living are likely to fall. We now seem to be approaching a time of too little energy, relative to population.

  [2] Recently published data through 2021 indicates that energy consumption growth is not keeping up with population growth, similar to the situation of the 1930s. This says that the economy is doing poorly. Supply lines are broken; most jobs don’t pay well; many goods that normally would be available aren’t available.

  

  Figure 4. World energy consumption per capita, based on information published in BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

  Figure 4 shows that the year with the highest per capita energy consumption was 2018. This agrees with other information such as automobile sales.

  

  Figure 5. Auto sales by country, based on data of vda.de

  For example, the number of automobiles sold seems to have peaked back in the 2018 period. China and India are both reporting fewer automobile sales recently. The economy was already sliding into recession in 2019. The 2020 shutdowns hid the very poor condition the world economy was already in. If people were forced to remain in their homes, they could not take to the streets to protest their poor wages and pension plans. The shutdowns helped give the impression the world economy was doing better than it really was.

  Figure 4 shows that even with the bounce back in 2021, total energy consumption per capita is still below the 2018 and 2019 values. This contrasts with the situation that occurred after the 2008-2009 Great Recession. By 2010, per capita energy consumption was back above the 2007 and 2008 values.

  [3] We can look back and see how rising interest rates were used to slow the world economy in the 2004 to 2006 period, and how different the economic situation was then compared to now. Even with the rapid growth the economy was making at the time of the interest rates increases, the result was still a deep recession in 2008-2009.

  

  Figure 6. Figure similar to Figure 4 showing world energy consumption per capita, except that notation has been added with respect to the timing of increases in US Federal Reserve Target Interest Rates.

  It is clear from Figure 4 and Figure 6 that between 2001 and 2007, the quantity of energy consumed per capita was rising rapidly. This was the period shortly after China was added to the World Trade Organization. Manufacturing was rapidly being moved to China. China’s demand for energy products of all kinds was rising rapidly. As a result of this greater demand, oil prices were increasing between 2001 and 2007. To try to reduce inflation, the Federal Reserve raised target interest rates in the 2004 to 2006 period and gradually brought them down, starting in late 2007.

  There are two things that are striking about this earlier situation:

  1. The world economy (as shown by rising energy supply) was growing much more rapidly during the 2001 to 2007 period than it is in 2022. All the world economy is trying to do now is get back to where it was before the 2020 shutdowns, in terms of energy consumption per capita.

  2. Eventually, there was a bad reaction to the higher interest rates of 2004 to 2006, but this did not come until 2008-2009. This was a much longer lag than most people would expect.

  Now, in 2022, we cannot get energy consumption per capita up to the 2018 and 2019 levels. There are many unfinished automobiles, waiting for missing parts. Appliances of many kinds are not available without a long wait. Fertilizer is often not available. Broken supply lines leave many store shelves empty. It is not that demand is unusually high; it is the supply of the energy products we need to grow food and to transport many finished goods that is not available.

  Raising interest rates is a way to reduce the demand for finished goods and services, such as automobiles and appliances, if the world economy is growing very rapidly, as it was back in the 2001 to 2007 period. If the problem is an inadequate supply of finished goods and services (due to broken supply lines and low wages for workers), then raising interest rates is entirely the wrong medicine. It will cause even fewer automobiles and appliances to be made. It will cause many current workers to be laid off. Such an approach, when the world is trying to deal with too few workers, will tend to make the situation worse, rather than better.

  [4] The trend in fossil fuel supplies is concerning. Both oil and coal are past peak, on a per capita basis. World coal supply has been lagging population growth since at least 2011. While natural gas production is rising, the price tends to be high and the cost of transport is very high.

  Most energy charts are similar to Figure 7, showing energy consumption on a total product supplied basis, without reference to the size of the population using those resources.

  

  Figure 7. Total quantity of oil, coal and natural gas supplied based on information published in BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

  Figure 7 indicates that coal supplies are, in some sense, the most troubled of the three types of fossil fuels. In the 2001 to 2007 period, China was able to ramp up its manufacturing using coal, but eventually those supplies ran short. In fact, coal supplies around the world started running short. Instead of telling us about the shortfall in production, we started hearing a story that sounds a lot like The Fox and the Grapes of Aesop’s Fables: Coal is a horribly polluting fuel which we don’t really want anyhow.

  To understand how these quantities correspond to the world’s rising population, it is helpful to look at consumption divided by population, shown in Figure 8.

  

  Figure 8. Oil, coal and natural gas energy consumption per capita, based on data in BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

  Figure 8 shows that oil consumption per capita was relatively stable up until 2019. Then, it suddenly dropped in 2020, and it has not been able to fully recover from that drop in 2021. In fact, we know that as oil production has tried to increase in 2022, its price has risen further. Of the years shown, 2004 was the year with the highest oil consumption per capita. That was back at the time that “conventional” oil production peaked.

  Figure 8 shows that the peak production of coal, relative to world population, was in the year 2011. Now, in 2022, the least expensive coal to extract has been depleted. World coal consumption has fallen far behind population growth. The big drop-off in coal availability means that countries are increasingly looking to natural gas as a flexible source of electricity generation. But natural gas has many other uses, including its use in making fertilizer and as a feedstock for many herbicides, pesticides, and insecticides. The result is that there is more demand for natural gas than can easily be supplied.

  [5] Governments and academic institutions have gone out of their way to avoid telling the world how important energy of the right types and in the right quantities is to the economy.

  Politicians cannot admit that the world economy cannot get along without the right quantities of energy that match the needs of today’s infrastructure. At most, a small amount of substitution is possible, if all the necessary transition steps are taken. Each transition step requires energy of various kinds. For example, a small amount of intermittent wind can be added to the fossil-fuel generated electricity supply, if care is taken to ramp up fossil-fuel generated electricity to offset the lack of wind when there is a shortfall in supply. Otherwise, battery or other storage is needed for the wind energy until the wind energy is truly needed by the system.

  Thus, most people today are convinced that the economy doesn’t need energy. They believe that the world’s biggest problem is climate change. They tend to cheer when they hear that fossil fuel supplies are being shut down. Of course, without energy of the right kinds, jobs disappear. The total quantity of goods and services produced tends to fall very steeply. In this situation, there is likely not enough food for all the people in the world. War is likely to break out over limited resources.

  [6] Once the economy starts heading downward, it is not clear that the economy can ever “catch itself” and start back on an upward path again, even for a short while.

  Back in 2001, the World Economy was able to get a “bail out” from China’s rapid growth in coal production, but as we have seen, world coal production is no longer growing as fast as population.

  Back in about 2010 and 2011, growth in US crude oil from shale formations was able to temporarily bail out world oil supply, but now this is also failing. Also, even the recent “growth” shown is to a significant extent from the completion of “drilled but uncompleted” wells started earlier. Eventually, there are no more “DUCs” to complete.

  

  Figure 9. EIA chart showing US Field Production of Crude Oil through June 24, 2022.

  In fact, despite all of the supposed high reserves of many kinds around the world, there is little evidence that the Middle East, or anywhere else, can actually raise production much higher.

  Once the economy starts shrinking, debt defaults are likely to become a big problem. Banks will find their balance sheets impaired. They may be forced to close. Citizens with deposits may find that only part of their balance is available to spend.

  Government programs will necessarily be forced to cut back to match the energy supplies that are available. For example, if road paving material is not available, roads cannot be repaved. If fuel cannot be found for school buses, students may need to learn at home.

  Governments at all levels have promised pension plans. In fact, many employers have promised pension plans. Without a growing supply to cheap-to-produce energy, these promises are meaningless. Somehow, governments will find it necessary to cut back on their promises. Perhaps, Social Security and Medicare programs will be handed back to US States to fund, to the extent that the states have funds for these programs. Governments around the world can expect to face similar problems.

  With less energy supply available, the whole world economy that we know today seems likely to start falling apart. Fewer goods will be available through international trade. It is cheap energy that has allowed today’s economy to function. Once this cheap energy is depleted, the world economy will need to shrink back in many ways, at once.

  We don’t really know precisely what lies ahead, and perhaps, this lack of knowledge is for the best. We cannot even imagine a world economy changing rapidly for the worse.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 07/22/2022 – 21:00

• These Are The 20 Nations With The Fastest Declining Populations
  These Are The 20 Nations With The Fastest Declining Populations

  Since the mid-1900s, the global population has followed a steep upwards trajectory.

  While much of this growth has been concentrated in China and India, researchers expect the next wave of growth to occur in Africa. As of 2019, for example, the average woman in Niger is having over six children in her lifetime.

  However, as Visual Capitalist’s Marcus Lu details below, at the opposite end of this spectrum are a number of countries that appear to be shrinking from a population perspective. To shed some light on this somewhat surprising trend, we’ve visualized the top 20 countries by population decline.

  

  The Top 20

  The following table ranks countries by their rate of population decline, based on projected rate of change between 2020 and 2050 and using data from the United Nations.

  

   

  Many of these countries are located in or near Eastern Europe, for reasons we’ll discuss below.

   

  The first issue is birth rates, which according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), have fallen since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Across the region, the average number of children per woman fell from 2.1 in 1988 to 1.2 by 1998.

  Birth rates have recovered slightly since then, but are not enough to offset deaths and emigration, which refers to citizens leaving their country to live elsewhere.

  Eastern Europe saw several waves of emigration following the European Union’s (EU) border expansions in 2004 and 2007. The PIIE reports that by 2016, 6.3 million Eastern Europeans resided in other EU states.

  The Outliers

  There are two geographical outliers in this dataset which sit on either side of Europe.

  Japan

  The first is Japan, where birth rates have fallen continuously since 1970. It wasn’t until 2010, however, that the country’s overall population began to shrink.

  By the numbers, the situation appears dire. In 2021, 811,604 babies were born in Japan, while 1.44 million people died. As a result of its low birth rates, the island nation also has the world’s highest average age at 49 years old.

  The Japanese government has introduced various social programs to make having kids more appealing, but these don’t appear to be getting to the root of the problem. For deeper insight into Japan’s low birthrates, it’s worth reading this article by The Atlantic.

  Cuba

  The second country is Cuba, and it’s the only one not located within the Eastern Hemisphere. Cuba’s fertility rate of 1.7 children per woman is the lowest in the Latin American region. It can be compared to countries like Mexico (2.2), Paraguay (2.5), and Guatemala (3.0).

  Cuba’s immigration is also incredibly low compared to its neighboring countries. According to the International Organization for Migration, immigrants account for just 0.1% of its total population.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 07/22/2022 – 20:40

• Texas GOP Training 5,000 Election Workers, Poll Watchers To Improve Election Integrity: Spokesman
  Texas GOP Training 5,000 Election Workers, Poll Watchers To Improve Election Integrity: Spokesman

  Authored by Gary Bai via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  The Texas GOP says it is stepping up election integrity efforts in the state by training and recruiting election personnel watching the polls, according to a party spokesperson.

  “Texas should be the standard bearer for all things Republican, with a Republican-dominated legislature and state office for going on 20 years now,” Wesolek said, noting that the issue of election integrity is “absolutely” a part of this axiom. 

  

  Since former U.S. President Donald Trump left office in 2021, the Lone Star State’s Republican Party has trained over 5,000 election workers and poll watchers in the state, as part of an effort to “set the goalpost” for improving election integrity statewide and beyond, party spokesperson James Wesolek told The Epoch Times in an interview in July.

  “When it comes to good Republican policy, Texas should be leading the way and showing what that means … what good Republican policy looks like,” the spokesperson added.

  The Texas GOP’s in-house staff and contractors, in partnership with the Republican National Committee, county-level Republican parties, and other grassroots groups, conduct training and recruitment of election personnel in the state.

  The poll watchers would observe the conduct of the election and report irregularities and violations of the Election Code, if any, to election officials. All political parties are allowed to hire election workers to observe all parts of election administration.

  “It’s a team effort, and in the end, it’s all a responsibility we feel to be accountable to the voters of Texas,” Wesolek said.

  Texas’s Republicans, in conjunction with former U.S. President Donald Trump and other conservative figures, have been voicing their concerns about how the 2020 election was administered.

  More than 5,000 delegates at the biennial Texas GOP Convention last month voted and passed a resolution that stated President Joe Biden “was not legitimately elected” and that “substantial” election fraud in key metropolitan areas influenced the results of the 2020 presidential election in favor of Biden. This resolution makes the Lone Star state the first to reject the 2020 election results. Democrats and legacy media have vociferously denied such allegations, claiming them to be unfounded.

  At the convention, the delegates voted for eight out of 15 topics they deemed important, which then became the official legislative priorities for the Texas GOP during the 88th session (2023-2024) of the Texas legislature. 

  Out of these eight selected priorities, the “Protect our Elections” legislative priority would guide the Texas legislature in passing measures that Republican delegates believe would improve election security in the state. 

  These measures include restoring felony penalties and enacting civil penalties for Election Code violations, requiring voter citizenship verification, restricting mail-in ballots to only the disabled, military personnel, and citizens that are out of state, reducing the time allowed for early voting, eliminating the three-day gap between early voting and election day, and establishing closed primaries in Texas.

  “Despite the legislative priorities that we have, we’re still out in the field training poll watchers and election workers every day so that we can trust and verify, make sure that our election integrity laws that are already on the book are followed, that the law is followed, that there are repercussions for [election fraud] when it happens,” Wesolek said.

  “And some of what we had seen in our legislative priorities stems from those efforts where [the poll watchers] noticed that there was lack of enforcement for some of [the election integrity laws] and wanted to get that addressed,” the spokesperson added.

  Bill filing for Texas’s 88th legislative session begins on Nov. 14.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 07/22/2022 – 20:20

• Families Brawl At Disney World As The Company Brand Decays
  Families Brawl At Disney World As The Company Brand Decays

  It seems like Disney has been deliberately chasing controversy the past couple of years.  Leaks of management video conferences have shown the company to be widely engaged in distributing woke propaganda through its entertainment media.  They openly opposed Florida’s anti-grooming bill which prevented teachers from engaging in sexualized discussions with young children.  And, a majority of their box office movies and streaming content has fallen flat in terms of audience numbers and revenues. 

  

  Disney’s stock has plunged by around 30% in the past six months, and the company is now heavily relying on cash from the theme parks to keep itself afloat.  Public sentiment towards Disney is in steep decline according to polls, and this is likely due to far-left ideology being injected into every facet of the conglomerate.  That said, there is also an increasing number of incidents of violence at the parks as well as negative encounters with employees.  

  The latest event involved a big brawl between two families at Disney World, apparently over a woman leaving an attraction line and then returning to her family.  This set off the chaos in the video below:

  Some of the guests have now been arrested and banned from the park, but only after the fight went unimpeded and security was nowhere to be seen.  This is just one among a host of incidents that have ruined the image of a company which once relied entirely on family friendly, non-confrontational and non-political fun.  This doesn’t look like much fun, but many might find it funny to watch Disney implode.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 07/22/2022 – 20:00

• What We Know About The 22-Year-Old Who Stopped A Mass Shooting In Indiana
  What We Know About The 22-Year-Old Who Stopped A Mass Shooting In Indiana

  Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Authorities revealed that the 22-year-old Indiana man who stopped a mass shooting at an Indiana mall over the weekend is Elisjsha Dicken.

  The suspect was identified as Jonathan Sapirman, 20, who was killed by Dicken. Sapirman killed three people, identified by local officals as Pedro Pineda, 56; Rosa Mirian Rivera de Pineda, 37; and Victor Gomez, 30.

  

  What Happened in the Incident

  Dicken was accompanying his girlfriend at the Greenwood Park Mall, located 15 miles south of Indianapolis, when a shooter opened fire after emerging from the mall bathroom, Greenwood Police Chief Jim Ison said.

  “I will say his actions were nothing short of heroic,” Ison said of Dicken.

  Dicken then “engaged the [shooter] from quite a distance with a handgun, was very proficient in that, very tactically sound, and as he moved to close in on the suspect he was also motioning for people to exit behind him,” Ison explained during a news conference.

  Authorities in the news conference said Sapirman’s motive is unknown. Before he opened fire, Sapirman spent more than one hour in the mall bathroom, Ison said.

  

  He had purchased three weapons and brought them to the mall, Ison said, but he only used a Sig Sauer M400 rifle.

  Legal Implications

  Indiana attorney Guy Relford, who is representing Dicken, said that his client followed the law.

  Relford issued a statement saying he’s “a true American hero who saved countless lives during a horrific event that could have been so much worse if not for Eli’s courage, preparedness and willingness to protect others.”

  “Because we want to respect the on-going criminal investigation by the Greenwood Police Department and take time to honor the three innocent lives lost, we won’t be making any substantive comments on Sunday’s events until after the authorities’ investigation is closed,” Dicken’s lawyer added.

  As of July 1 in Indiana, state law no longer required individuals to have a permit to carry a firearm. Officials said Dicken was armed with a 9mm handgun.

  Dicken was not technically allowed to carry a gun inside the mall as the Greenwood Park Mall’s website says it has a no-gun policy.

  However, the rule “certainly has no effect whatsoever on his ability to use force to defend himself or to defend the other people in the mall,” Relford told the Indianapolis Star. He said that if Dicken carried the firearm into the mall and was told to leave and he doesn’t, he could be charged with trespassing.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 07/22/2022 – 19:40

• DOJ Sabotaged Trump Release Of Russiagate Docs
  DOJ Sabotaged Trump Release Of Russiagate Docs

  The Department of Justice blocked the release of hundreds of pages of ‘Russiagate’ documents that were declassified by then-president Donald Trump, who wanted to expose FBI abuses against he and his inner circle surrounding the 2016 US election and beyond.

  

  After the agency refused, citing last minute ‘privacy concerns,’ they defied a subsequent order to release the materials after redactions were made, according to Just the News, which has obtained a memo from the National Archives written by former White House Chief-of-Staff, Mark Meadows, hours before Trump left office on January 20, 2021.

  Meadows’ memo confirmed prior reporting by Just the News that Trump on Jan. 19, 2021 declassified a binder of hundreds of pages of sensitive FBI documents that show how the bureau used informants and FISA warrants to spy on the Trump campaign and misled both a federal court and Congress about flaws in the evidence they offered to get approval for the investigation.

  The declassified documents included transcripts of intercepts made by the FBI of Trump aides, a declassified copy of the final FISA warrant approved by an intelligence court, and the tasking orders and debriefings of the two main confidential human sources, Christopher Steele and Stefan Halper, the bureau used to investigate whether Trump had colluded with Russia to steal the 2016 election. -Just the News

  Investigations into Trump and his campaign, as we know, found that there was no collusion with the Kremlin. Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton authorized the dissemination of a fabricated claim that the Trump team was communicating with a Russian bank.

  The declassified documents have never seen the light of day – as the DOJ disobeyed a direct order from the sitting US president, through Meadows, to declassify and expeditiously release them after private information was redacted.

  “I am returning the bulk of the binder of declassified documents to the Department of Justice (including all that appear to have a potential to raise privacy concerns) with the instruction that the Department must expeditiously conduct a Privacy Act review under the standards that the Department of Justice would normally apply, redact material appropriately, and release the remaining material with redactions applied,” wrote Meadows – who told JTN that he was dismayed at the DOJ’s refusal to follow lawful instructions from the president.

  “Well, you know, the swamp is pretty deep,” he said. “But when we look at this, this particular president was all about draining the swamp, you know, and when he was running, that was more of a campaign slogan. When he got there, he realized that not only was the swamp very deep, but they they would fight back. And oftentimes he said, ‘You know, I want to do this and get this out to the American people, not just the classification in terms of issues that affected him or his campaign personally, but issues that affect the American people.”

  “What would happen is he would have a directive, and then we would see, as people were leaving the Oval Office, you know, they were nodding compliance in the Oval Office, and the minute they go out, they said, ‘Well, we’re not going to do that’ or ‘We’re going to find all the reasons not to do it.’ So I found that very often while I served as chief of staff, but also found that as a member of Congress, that many times we would go in and the president was all in on a transparency issue, only to find that many, whether they be at a particular agency or the Pentagon, they started pushing back.”

  According to Meadows, if the documents are ever released they’ll show that congressional Democrats and FBI leadership knew they were lying.

  “We found that not only were some of the allegations made by some of the Democrats false, but they were kind of guilty of what they were accusing Donald Trump of,” he said.

  Read more here… and see Meadows’ memo below.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 07/22/2022 – 19:40

• These Are The World's Highest-Grossing Companies
  These Are The World’s Highest-Grossing Companies

  Walmart is the top-selling company in the world, turning over around $573 billion in annual revenue. 

  This is according to the Statista company database Company DB. The company in second place, e-commerce giant Amazon, is a whopping $100 billion behind that with a revenue of around $470 billion.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  Two Chinese companies are also included in the list.

  The State Grid Cooperation of China, which is in the business of electricity generation, transmission and distribution, and China Petroleum, a state-owned oil and gas enterprise.

  Two more fossil fuel companies, state-owned Saudi Aramco from Saudi Arabia and British-owned Shell, also make the Top 10.

  Apple and Volkswagen are the only two consumer goods companies that appear on the list. A third retailer – and a second one from the traditional brick-and-mortar field – appears in rank six: U.S. drug store chain CVS.

  This means that Amazon remains the only seller dedicated exclusively to e-commerce on the list for now.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 07/22/2022 – 19:20

• Republican Mayra Flores Accuses Democrat Opponent Of Paying Blogger For Racist Posts
  Republican Mayra Flores Accuses Democrat Opponent Of Paying Blogger For Racist Posts

  Authored by Darlene McCormick Sanchez via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Republican Congresswoman Mayra Flores responded to racial stereotypes and crude language used to describe her by a South Texas blogger paid with campaign money from Congressman Vicente Gonzales, her Democratic opponent in the Texas District 34 midterm election.

  

  In a Twitter post on Monday, Flores accused the Gonzales campaign of paying for a blogger to “run hateful and racist ads” against her. The posts that appeared in the McHale Report blog referred to her as “Miss Frijoles,” “Miss Menudo,” “Miss Enchiladas,” and a “cotton-pickin’ liar.”

  “I am disgusted that Vicente Gonzalez has hired a creepy blogger to attack my Mexican heritage and sexually degrade me, but I won’t let this distract me from my work,” she told The Epoch Times via text. “Vicente Gonzalez is an example of everything that’s wrong with Washington. It’s truly sick,” she said.

  Jerry McHale, a longtime South Texas blogger, also used sexually crude language in a May 13 headline about the Congresswoman: “Does Flores Want Trump to Come & Take Her [expletive]???”

  My far left opponent, Vincent Gonzalez, hired a local blogger to run hateful & racist ads against me!

  But, I love frijoles & I grew up eating frijoles. I am not embarrassed of my upbringings & frijoles w/tortillas de harina is simply the best. Here’s to Miss Frijoles 2022 #TX34 pic.twitter.com/7z5SRGCfUv

  — Mayra Flores (@MayraFlores2022) July 18, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Federal Elections Commission data shows Gonzalez made campaign advertising expenditures to Jerry McHale of $1,200 on June 24 and $1,000 on October 27, 2021.

  McHale told The Epoch Times that Gonzalez never told him what to write, and he has never spoken to the Congressman. He was unapologetic for the language used in the blog. The self-described ultra-left Democratic blogger said he had no regrets using “satire” to describe Flores or “punching hard” at Republicans. He said Gonzalez and other politicians pay him to run photos with wording akin to a headline.

  Colin Steel, campaign manager for Gonzalez, did not return a call seeking comment. However, he told NBC News, which first reported the story, that Gonzalez disapproves of calling Flores names and denied any wrongdoing.

  Flores became the first Republican elected in the heavily Hispanic Rio Grande District in more than 100 years. The devout Christian won a special election for the district on a conservative platform of God, family, and country.

  

  The controversial blog is just the latest incident in the rough-and-tumble political race for Texas District 34, which Flores aims to keep red. During her swearing-in ceremony, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi appeared to nudge Flores’ daughter to the side, which prompted Flores to condemn Pelosi on social media.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 07/22/2022 – 19:00

• It's "Embarrassing" – Aussie Govt Probes Central Bank's Terrible Track-Record
  It’s “Embarrassing” – Aussie Govt Probes Central Bank’s Terrible Track-Record

  In a stunning admission in this age of delusion, the Australian government has launched a probe into the central bank’s dismal forecasting and policy track record.

  

  As The FT reports, the review comes after the institution was heavily criticized for delaying interest-rate hikes despite soaring, and persistent, inflation.

  The RBA came under fierce criticism after it was forced into a U-turn three months ago when soaring inflation shredded its dovish policy stance.

  

  Australia’s treasurer Jim Chalmers said the review would consider the performance of the central bank, its board composition and its inflation targeting strategy.

  “We face a complex and changing economic environment, and now is the right time to ensure we’ve got the world’s best, the most effective central bank,” Chalmers told Australia’s public broadcaster ABC on Wednesday.

  

  In fact, Philip Lowe, RBA governor, admitted in May that the central bank’s forecasting had been “embarrassing” given it had indicated that it would keep rates as low as possible until 2024.

  “We should forecast this better. We didn’t,” he said.

  Additionally, Lowe acknowledged the reputational damage from the “disorderly” exit from yield control.

  The review will consider how the RBA reacts during times of crisis when monetary policy moves are limited.

  “The outlines of the review encompassing its governance, culture and recruitment processes are quite broad, and certainly broader than the recent reviews undertaken at the Fed and the ECB,” said Alvin Tan, the head of Asia currency strategy at RBC Capital Markets in Singapore.

  “The outcome of the exercise could be more important on the governance and culture aspects rather than the inflation goal.”

  The final report and recommendations, due by March 2023, will also come just six months before Lowe’s seven-year term expires.

  How long before a similar probe is unleashed on The Fed’s “embarrassing” track record… or worse still The ECB or BoJ’s?

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 07/22/2022 – 18:40

• Pennsylvania Prohibits 'Zuck Bucks' Ahead Of 2022 Midterms
  Pennsylvania Prohibits ‘Zuck Bucks’ Ahead Of 2022 Midterms

  Authored by Rita Li via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Pennsylvania has banned public officials from receiving and using private election grants, including those from nonprofits, in a bid to boost election integrity by reducing outside influence.

  

  As of July 2022, over 20 states have passed laws banning or restricting public officials’ use of unregulated third-party monies when conducting elections. It comes after conservative analysts ​​contend that such funds—dubbed “Zuck Bucks”—were allegedly strategic in their placement in swing states, beefing up vote totals in 2020 for then-presidential candidate Joe Biden to eventually win the election.

  Election offices across Pennsylvania received more than $25 million in “Zuck Bucks” grants during the 2020 election cycle, according to data released by Capital Research Center.

  Democrat Gov. Tom Wolf signed into law Senate Bill 982 (pdf) on July 11 mandating that public officials of state and local governments “may not solicit, apply for, enter into a contract for or receive or expend gifts, donations, grants or funding from any individual, business, organization, trust, foundation, or any nongovernmental entity for the registration of voters or the preparation, administration or conduction of an election in this commonwealth,” as per the new election integrity legislation.

  “For us, reform begins with prohibiting private groups from funding election administration,” the bill’s primary sponsor state Sen. Lisa Baker said in a statement issued upon the law’s passage. She called the amendments “substantial structural improvements.”

  “No matter who on the outside is contributing, no matter their expressed motivations,” Baker said, “millions of dollars coming in from national figures or organizations naturally raises suspicions of hidden agendas.”

  Instead, the bill introduces a brand new “election integrity grant program,” wherein the state’s Department of Community and Economic Development is permitted to provide $45 million each year—or $5.15 per registered voter—to reimburse counties.

  Yet it limits the circumstances for use of the grants, such as “payment of staff needed to pre-canvass and canvass mail-in ballots and absentee ballots” and “physical security and transparency costs for centralized pre-canvassing and canvassing.”

  The total amount of the grants will be determined based on the population of registered voters in the previous primary election. To qualify for the state deal, counties are required to open and count ballots from 7 a.m. on Election Day, which doesn’t allow counties to process mail-in ballots ahead of Election Day.

  Counties can submit applications between Aug. 1 and Aug. 15.

  Third-Party Grants

  A Mark Zuckerberg-funded activist group, the Chicago nonprofit Center for Tech and Civic Life (CTCL), flooded election offices largely in Democratic Party strongholds with hundreds of millions of dollars in 2020, which experts have seen as an apparent effort to drive up voter turnout for that party.

  The billionaire Facebook founder, along with his wife, Priscilla Chan, donated $350 million to CTCL to fund local election offices nationally, calling them “COVID-19 response grants.” The money was advertised as a resource to buy personal protective equipment and reduce the spread of the coronavirus—yet COVID-19 response turned out to be a fraction of the total expenditures.

  Researchers at the Capital Research Center, a Washington-based conservative non-profit organization, found that CTCL had given grants to 10 of the 13 counties Biden won in Pennsylvania, one of which—Erie County—flipped from Trump’s 2016 column.

  “Together, these 10 counties received $20.8 million, or over 83 percent of all CTCL grants to Pennsylvania,” the report reads. “In contrast, CTCL gave grants to 12 of the 54 counties Trump won statewide. These 12 counties received just $1.73 million, a mere 7 percent of all CTCL funds in the Keystone state.”

  The five biggest grants per capita in CTCL-funded counties statewide all went to those that Biden won, the study shows.

  A spokesman for Facebook did not respond to a request for an interview.

  Zuckerberg commissioned a report in December, which emphasized that “more Republican jurisdictions, defined as municipalities that voted for Trump in 2020, applied for and received grants.” The conclusion was deemed misleading among some election data experts because Republican jurisdictions were far more likely to receive grants of less than $50,000, which would likely not be enough to materially change election practices in the recipient jurisdiction.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 07/22/2022 – 18:20

• US Fighter Jets Now Under Consideration For Ukraine: Air Force Chief
  US Fighter Jets Now Under Consideration For Ukraine: Air Force Chief

  For weeks there have been rumors and widespread reports that the United States is close to starting a formal training program for Ukrainian pilots in order to better combat superior Russian aerial forces. But amid the weapons bonanza being offered and shipped from Washington to Kiev, it was also reported that fighter jets were never on the table – not even from allies.

  This is particularly so after in March a proposal for Poland to send its own MiG-29 fighters to Ukraine, which Ukrainian pilots are already trained on, fell through in a bizarre and somewhat diplomatically embarrassing way, given Warsaw prematurely claimed the White House had agreed to replace its donated MiGs with F-16 jets. The Biden administration then rejected that any agreement was made, and the whole fighter jets for Ukraine initiative appeared shelved. But now fresh words from Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall have revived speculation the Biden administration is intensely mulling jet transfers. 

  

  “Despite previous reports to the contrary, the United States is indeed considering sending fighter jets to Ukraine and training their pilots how to fly them, Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall says,” reports Newsmax based on his revealing words before the Aspen Security Forum this week.

  He stressed that while the “right now problem” remains ground-based fighting particularly in the East, creating an urgent need for more artillery and heavy gun systems, Ukraine’s military will soon need better aerial assets to stave off Russia’s assault.

  “We’ll be open to discussions with them about what their requirements are and how we might be able to satisfy them,” Kendall said, before saying it remains “largely up to Ukraine” to decide what type of aircraft would meet its needs.

  “There are a number of international opportunities that are possible there,” he said. “Older US systems are a possibility” – he added while raising the possibility of A-10s, which have been in process of an off-and-on retirement under the Pentagon

  Currently, the draft National Defense Authorization Act just passed in the House authorizes up to $100 million to establish a Ukrainian pilot program to train on American aircraft (F-16s in particular), which is the biggest indicator yet the Biden administration could be poised to pull the trigger.

  Top US Air Force command seems to be on the same page on the issue, as Politico reports of separate statements this week:

  Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. C.Q. Brown hinted that the U.S. or one one of its allies may soon send fighter jets to Ukraine.

  “There’s U.S. [fighter jets], there’s Gripen out of Sweden, there’s the Eurofighter or the Rafale. So there’s a number of different platforms that could go to Ukraine,” he said…The Ukrainians are unlikely to get MiGs, he continued, because it’ll be hard to get parts from Russia. “It’ll be something non-Russian, I could probably tell you that. What I can’t do is tell you what it’s going to be,” he concluded.

  “lawmakers recently approved $100 million as part of the 2023 National Defense Authorization Act to train Ukrainian pilots to fly U.S. fighter jets as the campaign against Russia rolls into a fifth month.” https://t.co/sF4VTNgp6P

  — Mollie (@MZHemingway) July 22, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Without doubt, Moscow would view this as a huge escalation, and a significant step toward fulfilling Zelensky’s ultra-provocative and risky request to “close the skies”. Already there are rumors that in some cases NATO operators themselves could be manning some of the more sophisticated longer range rocket systems recently sent to the Ukrainian battlefield. Might this one day be the case with allied aircraft issued to Kiev?

  It remains, however, that US-made jets would require a steep learning curve for Ukrainian pilots, possibly taking years to train on them – depending on the system. On this question, Air Force Secretary Kendall alluded to the possibility of accelerated training in the Wednesday remarks.

  Meanwhile, in fresh comments reported by The Wall Street Journal, President Zelensky has stressed the need for anti-air defense systems is more “more urgent” than ever amid increasing Russian reliance on long-range missiles. He also again asserted that Ukraine’s position is that it won’t negotiate with Moscow until the army has reclaimed all lost national territory. Anything less “will only prolong the war,” he stated.

  And speaking of the ongoing weapons bonanza, some of the latest headlines Friday:

  • BIDEN AUTHORIZES SECRETARY OF STATE BLINKEN TO DIRECT THE DRAWDOWN OF UP TO $175 MLN IN DEFENSE AID FOR UKRAINE -WHITE HOUSE
  • WHITE HOUSE SPOKESPERSON KIRBY: U.S. DEFENSE DEPT TO ANNOUNCE UKRAINE WILL GET UP TO 580 PHOENIX GHOST UAVS
  • WHITE HOUSE SPOKESPERSON KIRBY: TOTAL U.S. SECURITY ASSISTANCE FOR UKRAINE COMES TO $8.2 BLN

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 07/22/2022 – 18:00

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• ECB Raising Rates Is Europe's Last Chance To Avoid Ground Zero
  ECB Raising Rates Is Europe’s Last Chance To Avoid Ground Zero

  Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, n’ Guns blog,

  No matter what happens, as long as Davos feels they have control over US foreign policy they will continue to act as if everything is coming up roses for them as they trash the global economy.

  This is why I find the myriad attacks against a mostly clueless Joe Biden so interesting right now. Is there a Davos pivot in the offing or is this another signal that sovereigntist forces within the US power structure are gaining the upper hand?

  With that question in mind let’s put some context on recent European events and what they say about the global story unfolding in front of us.

  The ECB finally raised rates for the first time since 2011, bringing the deposit facility rate to 0.0%, because I guess it would be beneath ‘European values’ for banks to have to pay to borrow money stolen from savers.

  

  Some would be shocked (SHOCKED, I SAY!) that the ECB went up by 50 basis points (0.5%) today, but given the dramatic events in Italy just yesterday, how could they have really done otherwise without looking like the out of touch midwits they, in fact, are.

  They just lost their top man in Italy and it looks like the populist right is set to take power in a core EU country in a couple of months without any of the Davos poison pill legislation getting passed.

  Sound familiar? The same thing happened in the US last year and we’re now staring down the barrel of an historic wipeout of the Democrats in November’s mid-terms.

  This is a real, serious loss for Davos, as I outlined in last week’s article on Draghi’s first resignation attempt.

  But at the same time that the ECB raised interest rates, it also announced a new ‘without limit’ QE program called the Transmission Protection Instrument, because, as Zerohedge rightly points out, calling it “Italy specific QE sounds a little gauche.” I’d add it’s also against core European values like telling the truth.

  ECB President Christine Lagarde was in full control in trying to outline this new experiment in monetary policy, clearly now more “art than science,” to quote Lagarde from the Before Time, you know, last week.

  “We have everything under control,” has been the theme of all the headlines coming out of Europe this week. No matter the subject, even little things like the collapse of Mario Draghi’s Davos-backed government in Italy, can derail the European project.

  It’s all good, we just have to stay the course, be ‘data-driven,’ and not yield on Europe’s core values, which, at this point amount to, trusting the arsonists to run the fire department.

  

  To give you an idea of how deeply embedded this controlling idea is, earlier this week it was the statement from EU “Foreign Minister” Josep Borrell.  Europe, he said, must keep the pressure on Russia. It cannot “afford sanctions fatigue.”  It needs to keep pressuring Russia’s economy for the long haul. We must keep up the saturation bombing of Russia’s financial system no matter how many of those bombs land in Rome, Athens or Berlin rather than Moscow.

  The unstated goal of these sanctions is to keep advanced technology out of Russia’s hands to domestically produce the weapons it will need to fight off NATO, not next month, but next year or in 2024.

  This is a long term plan.  In an episode of RT’s Crosstalk I taped earlier in the week, host Peter Lavelle brought up the Biden Administration quotes about this being a 20-year war against Russia and/or China.

  Pompeo’s “Three Lighthouses” speech was the same conclusion; a generation of Americans are going to have to fight a holy war against the East for control over global energy. Too bad no one wants to sign up to join, Mike.

  They only have the existing plan and they were put in place to execute it, even if others counter it effectively. Biden is also on the same script, but he’ll be gone soon because he’s no longer a credible messenger. Then we’ll bring in Kamala “We Gathered here, because here is where we are gathered” Harris to be the Moron-in-Chief at the White House.

  Because, they remind us constantly, those uncouth Yanks can’t be allowed to run anything.

  With that in mind, look at what else the EU put out this week:

  

  When’s the last time you saw any set of economic indicators come in perfectly in line with expectations like this? Seriously? This would be the first forecast by a European agency that they ever got right?

  Moreover, if this is true, why did this CPI print push the ECB to raise rates by 50 bps versus 25 bps? I mean, they expected this CPI print, right? So shouldn’t they have been communicating 50 bps the entire time?

  There is logic and then there is the E.C.B.

  It’s just a desperate narrative to keep up appearances they have everything under control, that they are on top of the economic situation and there is no reason for anyone to panic.

  Because panic, or ‘unwanted and unwarranted’ (Lagarde’s words) changes in credit spreads will prompt the use of the TPI to keep the Central Bank That Davos Built from going bankrupt.

  For the EU however, the clock is ticking down fast. It’s the Fed’s turn next week and with this 50 bps raise, you almost have to expect 100 bps from Powell.

  Remember that Eurocrats like Borrell and Lagarde have no Plan B (but maybe a Plan R, sadly).  

  Reversals of Fortunes

  I invoked Dr. Strangelove here for a reason.  Watch the movie again structurally, note the myriad of ‘reversals’ in it. It’s a marvel of screenwriting.  It shows you how clever humans are when they are single-minded in overcome obstacles to completing a task, operating as if the false is true.

  

  There is no better metaphor for the current state of capital markets and political warfare than that.

  I talk about reversals all the time in technical analysis of markets, but it’s an idea that is embedded deeply in storytelling.  The first key to writing a great screenplay is knowing every scene has to have a ‘reversal of value.’   

  A reversal of value can be as simple as a cold person finding a hat, to a poor person finding a suitcase full of money.

  The scene, no matter how small, has a controlling idea.  That controlling idea has to change a value in some way or the scene has no purpose.

  Good editors leave them out. Studios put them back in to sell ‘Director’s Cuts’ on Blu-Ray.

  The EU is all about Director’s Cuts of unwatchable French ‘Cinema.’

  Reversals are important, they create and release tension.  Good writing constantly builds up small reversals to set the stage for larger ones (Scene Arcs) which impact bigger ones (Acts) and so on.  

  The Eurocrats and Davos don’t believe in reversals.  They believe in inevitability and if they can just ‘stay on script’ no matter the complication which has negated their plan, they can still get to the finish line and win.  

  This is what happened at the ECB’s pivotal meeting this week. They are staying the course. 2% inflation is the goal. Lagarde dropped all forecasts and talk of inflation being ‘transitory.’ Even though circumstances have reversed against them and they finally admitted it publicly, they won’t give up the overall narrative that everything is fine.

  Europe’s values can only be expressed through the EU and therefore anything to save the EU saves European values. Maybe Kamala can crib from that one.

  Thank the gods we uncouth Yanks left those European values behind, only to have them constantly try and impose them on us at every turn.

  To many investors the Fed had their pivotal meeting last month when they raised 75 bps, but that reversal of Fed policy was only in their minds. In fact, as I’ve been saying for more than a year now, the Fed’s pivotal meeting wasn’t this past June but the one from June 2021, when ‘stealth tightening’ through reverse repo payouts began.

  That set in motion as series of complications for the ECB and Davos which have been piling up like those thrown in front of the people trying to stop Armageddon in Dr. Strangelove. The ECB finally realizes that there is nothing to do now but to accept the smoking ruin and face reality.

  Stay on Target. Stay on TARGET

  What we are seeing in the markets this week after the euro briefly broke parity with the US dollar is the predictable bounce which comes after a major scene arc was completed. The euro hit $1.03 and no further.

  But it’s just that, a bounce, a brief comic interlude to release the tension.  

  Lagarde’s performance was her admission of a ‘credit-spread gap’ that is now unbridgeable. Italy’s debt is headed towards oblivion and the ECB just said they will spend every euro of German savings to avoid that for as long as possible.

  So, we have this idea that the ECB is on top of everything. But, what about the war in Ukraine? What about the EU’s future?

  The next headline is just as much of a stunner, in the face of a fracturing EU and Mario Draghi’s tenuous hold on power in Italy: EU Starts membership talks with Albania, North Macedonia

  Translation: Don’t worry, the EU is healthy and everyone wants to be a member.  We will only grow stronger, not weaker.  We will absorb all of Europe, claim NATO from the Americans, force them to fight China while we starve Russia. 

  This is fine. 

  This is all part of the script.  But, it’s clearly not.  

  This is what they want us in the West to see, what we’re only allowed to find in internet searches. Meanwhile, the Russians tell you what Europe is really doing, namely lifting sanctions and desperately trying to get the energy and food it needs to stay one step ahead of the hangmen outside of parliaments all across the ‘civilized world.’

  The truth is, for the first time in a very long time, Davos is not calling the shots for the entire West.   Italy’s government is gone because the populists were told they have US backing to end Draghi’s reign of terror.

  Certified Ph.D. in Geography Liz Truss has even odds of becoming the next UK Prime Minister to keep US control over City of London strong and the UK in the game.

  Canada raised rates by 1% the other day, prompting comments about it having to follow, if not one-up, the Fed.  Clearly, the Canadian banks have had enough of Justin TrueDOH! and his Ukrainian Fifth Columnist, Davos chick Chrystia Freeland.

  And next week, the Fed will raise the stakes again on Lagarde regardless of what she said today.  TPI is unusable garbage which traders will front-run her into oblivion over. If she wants to know what that feels like maybe she should talk with Kuroda over at the Bank of Japan rather than her data-driven experts in Brussels.

  My last point is the one so many people do NOT want to hear, but better consider very carefully. Anti-American commentators do not understand what is happening.  

  They cannot wrap their brains around the idea that there are forces within the US hierarchy who see the Imperial Trap for what it is and that if it continues it will be the end of the US. That the Fed is facing an existential threat to its survival and that they have far more wiggle room than they think.

  Maybe, just maybe, the giants are fighting and we ants have a hard time distinguishing between not only who’s winning but whose footsteps we should avoid.

  At some point the whole illusion will come crashing down.  Europe is the old whore who still thinks she’s a hot twentysomething.  The Fed is the guy at the bar who’d rather drink alone.

  One only has to really look at the image Lagarde and EU Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen project to the world to see exactly what I’m talking about. Thank the gods Merkel left the scene.

  These ladies will stay on script while riding the bomb to ground zero thinking they have dance partners the entire time.

  *  *  *

  Join my Patreon if you hate bombshells

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 07/22/2022 – 02:00

• Fauci, Other US Officials Served In Lawsuit Over Alleged Collusion To Suppress Free Speech
  Fauci, Other US Officials Served In Lawsuit Over Alleged Collusion To Suppress Free Speech

  Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  White House chief medical adviser Anthony Fauci, Surgeon General Vivek Murthy, and other top Biden administration officials have been served with discovery requests after a federal judge ordered the administration to comply with discovery requests stemming from a lawsuit alleging government collusion with Big Tech.

  

  The lawsuit accuses government officials of working with Twitter and other major social media networks to suppress truthful information on multiple topics, including COVID-19.

  One example outlined is how Fauci, the longtime head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, held a secret meeting with scientists who soon after tried to discredit the theory that the virus that causes COVID-19 came from a Chinese laboratory. At the same time, Fauci, who has repeatedly cast doubt on the so-called lab leak theory and whose agency funded research at the lab in Wuhan, was exchanging messages with Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg on how COVID-19 information on social media was handled.

  Fauci was told in the request to identify every worker in his agency who has or is communicating with a social media platform regarding content modulation and/or misinformation, to identify all such communications he had, and to identify all meetings he had on the matter with social media platforms.

  He was also asked to provide all communications with Zuckerberg from Jan. 1, 2020, to the present, and all communications with platforms related to the Great Barrington Declaration, the COVID-19 strategy authored by Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, Martin Kulldorff, and Dr. Sunetra Gupta that Fauci and his former boss, Dr. Francis Collins, criticized publicly and in private.

  Discovery requests were also sent to White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre; former Disinformation Governance Board chief Nina Jankowicz; Jen Easterly, director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency; and agencies like the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Department of Homeland Security.

  Subpoenas

  Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt and Louisiana Attorney General Jeff Landry, the plaintiffs in the suit, also served subpoenas to Meta, Facebook’s parent company; YouTube; Twitter; Instagram; and LinkedIn.

  The subpoena compels the platforms to provide documents before Aug. 17, including all communications with Jankowicz and other federal officials.

  The documents reference how Jen Psaki, Jean-Pierre’s predecessor, told a briefing in July 2021 that officials are “in regular touch with these social media platforms” and that “we’re flagging problematic posts for Facebook that spread disinformation.”

  “We will fight to get to the bottom of this alleged collusion and expose the suppression of freedom of speech by social media giants at the behest of top-ranking government officials,” Schmitt, a Republican, said in a statement.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/21/2022 – 23:55

• "Putin Entirely Too Healthy," Says CIA Director After Rumors He Was Dying
  “Putin Entirely Too Healthy,” Says CIA Director After Rumors He Was Dying

  Breathless reports speculating on Vladimir Putin’s “poor health” seem to have become a a bi-monthly exercise since the Russian invasion of Ukraine kicked off. Among the more recent and widely reported supposed health scares was an alleged Cancer diagnosis and treatment in April, based on anonymous sources who say they are in the know, but also based in part on the Russian leader’s “dramatically changed appearance” – according to some Western reports.

  But time and again what ends up being pure sensationalized “rumor” and educated guesses or speculation at best doesn’t pan out. There’s nothing ever presented in the way of evidence, or any official confirmation from the Kremlin or anyone actually close to Putin.

  In the opening month of the war, there were even rumors that Putin was “dying” – and that this figured into his rationale of risking so much politically in ordering the Ukraine invasion. The idea was that a Putin getting close to the end was a more dangerous and unpredictable leader.

  

  But some significant level of confirmation did come this week from someone who might be in the know based on the high-level intelligence he’s privy to. CIA Director William Burns discussed the matter at the Aspen Security Forum on Wednesday, saying there’s as yet no intelligence indicating Putin is in bad health. 

  Burns told the audience at the annual event that it turns out the Russian president is “entirely too healthy.” Per the BBC, Burns explained, “There are lots of rumors about President Putin’s health, and as far as we can tell, he’s entirely too healthy,” Burns said.

  But the CIA director, who was previously US ambassador to Moscow, added the important caveat that his comment was “not a formal intelligence judgment.”

  And yet it’s also consistent with the official UK assessment on the matter. UK Chief of the Defence Staff Admiral Sir Tony Radakin said at the start of this week that all the talk of Putin’s failing health remains merely “wishful thinking.” He noted too that he’s not at risk of “assassination” either.

  So rumors by UK MOD he was dying in February were lies https://t.co/2CHXioUfjd

  — Freepress (@ultimateOne) July 21, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The Kremlin has taken the opportunity to clarify amid the Western commentary on Putin’s health, with Russian Presidency spokesman Dmitry Peskov saying in a press briefing Thursday that “In recent months, Ukrainian, American, and British so-called information ‘specialists’ have thrown around various fakes about the health of the president. But it is nothing but fakes.”

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/21/2022 – 23:35

• The Hypocrisy Of Elites
  The Hypocrisy Of Elites

  Authored by Erik Torenberg via Ideas & Musings,

  Recently we discussed why the masses adopt redistribution/egalitarianism — because it means more status and money for them.

  This week we’re going to discuss why the elites adopt redistribution/egalitarianism, since, after all, aren’t they the ones losing something by redistributing? Why then, do they unequivocally endorse giving away money and status? What’s in it for them? 

  Well. There’s one school of thought that says it’s a cynical ploy to prevent blowback from the masses. If the elites weren’t advocating for egalitarianism, they’d be unpopular with the masses and would be at risk of rebellions. In that way, redistribution can be seen as a tax they pay to keep their power.

  An even more cynical take is that the elites’ virtue signaling allows them to be seen as morally good without having to sacrifice much in terms of business interests. Corporations embraced the social causes of the last few years, but they didn’t embrace Occupy Wall Street. It’s easy for JP Morgan to promote diversity since diversity should only make JP Morgan richer. Occupy Wall Street, though, was asking for significant taxes on JP Morgan. JP Morgan didn’t like that kind of social progress — not one bit. 

  

  There’s likely truth to the idea that promoting this certain kind of egalitarianism is a way for elites to have air cover against a populist uprising — but this doesn’t do justice to the fact that many elites are, in fact, true believers. 

  As we’ve discussed, ever since Christianity we’ve conceived moral good to be valorization of the victim. We’ve since shed the theological roots of Christianity, but kept the same superstructure that redistributes status to the less well-off. When you see ambitious philanthropic projects started and funded by our ruling class, you can’t help but think much of it has good intentions. (What’s the Road to Hell paved with again?)

  Another theory holds that promoting egalitarianism is just another way elites compete amongst each other. That it’s just another status game.

  We recently discussed Rob Henderson’s Luxury Beliefs, the idea being that if people buy expensive luxury goods to showcase how well-off they are, people also hold “expensive” beliefs for the same reason. 

  This idea is not new: Jared Diamond has suggested one reason people engage in displays such as drinking, smoking, drug use, and other costly behaviors is because they serve as fitness indicators. The message is: “I’m so healthy I can afford to poison my body and continue to function.”

  Saying, “I’m willing to redistribute my money and status” is a costly but effective way of signaling, “I’m so secure in my status and money that I can afford giving it away, seeing as I have a surplus of both.”

  Consider the phrase “Defund the police” as an example — a call back to a previous post. This phrase was popularized by highly-educated elites who will almost certainly not move to areas that suffer from high crime and a defunded police force. Regardless, the phrase has been adopted by a broader set of people — including those in high-crime areas who don’t have the means to hire security or move somewhere safer.

  Why are high status people more likely to propagate luxury beliefs? Because they can afford it. And ironically, the highest status people are the most insecure about maintaining their status.

  Another irony is that redistribution is always an aristocratic thing. Aristocrats want it even more than the peasants. People assume that conditions are economic, but nearly all social movements are led by the rich. (Fidel Castro went to college and wore two Rolexes).

  This is what being an elite is about, after all. It’s not about money, although money plays a crucial role. It’s not even about education, though education plays a large role as well. It’s more about the set of behaviors and dispositions that indicate a person to be a member of the elite — which center around wanting to change the world. Recall we discussed the leveling and importance game: Wanting to change the world hits the sweet spot because it shows how important one is (you can afford worrying about the planet and not your rent), while also highlighting one’s empathy (wanting to take care of the less fortunate).

  Which is the whole point of being an elite. It’s what separates a person from simply being a bourgeois. Aristocrats want to *matter*. Bourgeoisie just want comfort and safety. Meanwhile proletariats just want to put food on the table.

  It’s worth noting, however, that the elites have evolved in one key respect: our elites are in denial that they’re elite. 100% of our present aristocratic oligarchs think aristocracy is evil and that they personally are fighting for the little people.

  Pareto called this the aristocracy of lions vs the aristocracy of foxes. Lions are proud, forceful aristocrats who explicitly own their position as leaders. Foxes, however, are humble servants who will forever deny that they’re in charge. While lions want to run the world, foxes want to save the world. 

  Ultimately, though, the egalitarianism of the elite is hollow.

  

  People want egalitarianism when they’re being selected, but they’re elitist when they’re doing the selecting.

  When people seek a job, partner, or doctor, they do not seek the average job, partner, or doctor — they seek the best.

  This is the ultimate luxury belief: wanting average for everyone else while wanting the best for ourselves. We see this everywhere: Elites advocate for public schools that disavow gifted programs for the poor while simultaneously sending their own kids to fancy private schools with gifted programs galore. Elites advocate for defunding the police while living in gated communities with private security. Elites throw a fit about getting homeless people off the streets, while moving to neighborhoods where they will never see any homeless people. 

  Not only do they advocate for egalitarianism for others while pursuing elitism for themselves, elites also recommend practices for others that they themselves don’t follow. This isn’t just hypocrisy; it’s pulling up the ladder.

  Rob Henderson quotes a study that showed that individuals with higher income and/or social status were the most likely to say that success comes as a result of luck and connections as opposed to hard work. Meanwhile, low-income individuals were much more likely to say success comes as a result of hard work and individual effort. 

  “This is where the hypocrisy comes in: affluent people often broadcast how they owe their success to luck. But then they tell their own children about the importance of hard work and individual effort.”

  Again, we see this everywhere: elites promote body positivity — the idea that being overweight is healthy — while being most obsessed with maintaining perfect health. Elites promote sexual independence and polyamory, yet themselves are most likely to be monogamous in stable long-term relationships. Elites complain about overpopulation and carbon footprint, but they’re the ones having the most kids and inflicting the largest carbon footprint. The Last Contrarian twitter account summarizes this well.

  

  Harvard is a great example of this hypocrisy. Harvard considers itself at the forefront of promoting social progress and egalitarianism. They invented schools of thought such as Critical Race Theory.

  And yet, Harvard is the ultimate engine of inequality — by design. Harvard has the best brand in the world, with a 40 billion endowment to boot. If it wanted to, Harvard could expand its class size by several orders of magnitude in order to give a more egalitarian education for all. But Harvard doesn’t want to do that. It just wants to talk about equality. After all, the school literally advertises its low acceptance rates.

  And yet, Harvard is willing to critique an entity like Amazon, which by comparison employs millions more people (compared to Harvard’s 1,000 people), and serves billions of people. 

  So we see a pattern: elite egalitarianism doesn’t practice what it preaches. It’s also actually counter-productive, since elites are insulated from the area they’re trying to help and thus have neither knowledge of the problem nor skin in the game.

  One example of this can be seen in public housing in the 1960s in places like Chicago and New York. Public housing at the time was designed by elites who didn’t have any skin in the game — they were never going to live there. Because of this, they destroyed the natural ecologies of low income housing and replaced them with housing projects that may have caused more harm than good.

  Yet again, we see this everywhere. Elites recommend dysfunctional behaviors and counterproductive policies for poor people while being precisely the ones most insulated from any and all consequences of such behaviors and policies.

  The tragedy of luxury beliefs is that, since they’re free, and since the non-elites aspire to eliteness, the beliefs themselves trickle down to the masses who can’t “afford” them. It’d be as if the masses bought a ton of expensive luxury products they didn’t need and became saddled with credit card debt. And since being high status means avoiding what the masses are doing, as soon as the masses adopt the luxury beliefs, the elites drop them. So elites accrue the short-term status benefit while the masses get hit with the long-term debt.

  And luxury beliefs are far more costly and dangerous than credit card debt — beliefs like polyamory is better. Marriage is sexist. Family is oppressive. Religion is bad. Fitness is fascist. Having kids is bad for the planet. Hard work isn’t needed to be successful. Success itself is an illness. Rationality, punctuality, and urgency are white supremacist values.

  And yet, what do elites do? Work hard, work out, get married to one partner, have kids, and teach them the opposite of what they recommend to the masses.

  This is the hypocrisy of the elites.

  

  Subscribe here…

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/21/2022 – 23:15

• Goldman: Some Noteworthy Clients Are Starting To Buy Throughout The Day
  Goldman: Some Noteworthy Clients Are Starting To Buy Throughout The Day

  Earlier today, we wrote that according to the Goldman flow desk, “most clients were hating this rally“, sentiment which Nomura’s Charlie McElligott picked up on later in the day when he wrote that the risk over the near term is a “further pile-on to the crowd who has expected another surge lower in stocks, instead squeezing their shorts and accelerating the enormous Systematic buying already going through as CTAs cover and flip long.”

  Well, it appears that the most steadfast bears – who are recently capitulated bulls, and who according to the latest BofA Fund Manager Survey, are now the most pessimistic on record – are starting to capitulate yet again, this time calling a bottom to stocks, and are starting to buy. Indeed, as Goldman flow trader John Flood writes in his end of day wrap, “some noteworthy long-only clients have now started to passively buy on our desk throughout the day (velocity picked up this afternoon as mkt moved higher)” adding that “executed flow across US equities franchise had +338bp buy skew vs 30d avg of -30bp sell skew. L/Os buy skew +9.8% was highest here since since 6/30.”

  Translation: it is possible that this bear market rally is about to transform into something more sustainable, and as more whales join the buying parade, the train may soon leave the station. That said, as Flood writes it will be interesting to see if this “long-only” momentum will sustain into Friday post “a slew of relatively disappointing earnings” post close, from companies such as SNAP, COF, CRSR, SAM, SIVB, STX.

  We excerpt from his note below; the full pdf available to pro subscribers in the usual place.

  Our desk was a 6 on 1 – 10 scale today. 3 More intraday blocks + CCL primary raise as institutions take advantage of surprise move higher in tape this week. Client demand for these blocks remains strong on our desk. Leading thematics today were China Exposure (GSCBCHSE) +196bps, Secular Growth (GSXUSGRO) +194bps, High Retail Sentiment (GSCBHRSB) +186bps.

  Some noteworthy L/O clients have now started to passively buy on our desk throughout the day (velocity picked up this afternoon as mkt moved higher). Executed flow across US equities franchise had +338bp buy skew vs 30d avg of -30bp sell skew. L/Os buy skew +9.8% was highest here since since 6/30. Demand concentrated in cons disc and materials. Will be interesting to see if this L/O demand back tomorrow post a slew of relatively disappointing earnings post close: SNAP, COF, CRSR, SAM, SIVB, STX, etc.

  SNAP (first take) -20% … Guiding Q3 revenue growth “thus far” this quarter to Flat YoY (Cons for full qtr Q3 growth was +18% y/y). Not giving full Q3 financial guidance.

  Gas prices in the US have moved down to $4.44/gallon (national average), 58 cents below their all-time high in mid-June.
  SLG (NYC’s largest commercial real estate landlord): “Tenant demand is shifting as some of the big technology tenants which expanded rapidly have pulled back as they adapt to new workforce patterns.”

  The ECB went big for its first rate hike in over a decade. It defied consensus with a 50 bp increase that ended the era of negative rates to tackle inflation Christine Lagarde said will remain “undesirably high for some time.” It also unveiled a crisis tool called the Transmission Protection Instrument. All countries are eligible and the plan received unanimous backing, though Lagarde said nations need sound macro policies and to comply with EU debt rules. Traders are now betting on 60 bps of increases in September. The euro erased earlier gains as she spoke, and yields came off some earlier highs, with some traders criticizing Lagarde for a lack of details during the presser.

  Finally, some humor from the Goldman trading desk:

  Joe Biden contracted Covid-19, has mild symptoms, and will isolate in the White House while continuing to work. The 79-year-old president has a runny nose, fatigue and an occasional dry cough, and has begun taking Paxlovid to treat the disease, according to a letter from his physician. Biden’s illness comes after a five-day trip to the Middle East during which he made few efforts to avoid infection.

  

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/21/2022 – 22:55

• Putin Calls Saudi Crown Prince To Discuss Oil Market, OPEC+
  Putin Calls Saudi Crown Prince To Discuss Oil Market, OPEC+

  By Julianne Geiger of OilPrice.com

  Russian President Vladimir Putin had a phone conversation with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to discuss the oil market and OPEC+.

  

  The two parties also made a note of the importance of collaboration within OPEC+, adding that OPEC+ members have consistently fulfilled their obligations to maintain market balance and stability in the energy markets.

  OPEC+ has consistently failed to meet its production targets over the duration of the deal. In June, OPEC+–a group that includes both Russia and Saudi Arabia—increased its oil production by 390,000 bpd, but most members failed to meet their production targets. OPEC’s share of the increase for June was 210,000 bpd, while non-OPEC members part of the OPEC+ group increased production by 180,000 bpd, according to a recent Platts survey.

  Overall, this was still more than 2.5 million bpd under the quota for the full OPEC+ group.

  Russia and Saudi Arabia—the two largest producers within OPEC+–saw the biggest production gains in June.

  While the group has fallen short of production targets, OPEC continues to insist that the market is in balance. Saudi Arabia has long maintained that it can do nothing beyond what it is already doing to help the oil market, and that the market is far more complex than merely pumping additional barrels of oil.

  That hasn’t stopped President Joe Biden from repeatedly asking the group to increase its oil production to alleviate the high pump prices in the United States. While U.S. gasoline prices have eased over the last month to $4.44, they remain $1.278 above last year’s levels, according to AAA data.

  The phone call is just the latest in a series of calls between Saudi Arabia and Russia, even after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/21/2022 – 22:35

• Rep. Lee Zeldin Attacked On Stage By Knife-Wielding Assailant
  Rep. Lee Zeldin Attacked On Stage By Knife-Wielding Assailant

  Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-NY) was attacked by a man with a blade on Thursday evening during a campaign stop in Fairport, NY, near Rochester, WROC reports.

  

  Zeldin, the NY Republican gubernatorial candidate, was giving a speech about bail reform when a man walked on stage, began yelling, “wrestled with him a bit, and pulled a blade out,” before AMVETS national Director Joe Chenelly stopped him.

  Here is video of the attack involving Rep. Zeldin from witness Cody Crippen pic.twitter.com/Ur1CfpkdsS

  — Nick Reisman (@NickReisman) July 22, 2022

  According to a statement from Zeldin’s campaign, “a man climbed on stage and attempted to stab Congressman Lee Zeldin (R-NY) … Congressman Zeldin grabbed the attacker’s wrist to stop him until several others assisted in taking the attacker down to the ground.”

  

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Group of men immediately jumped on stage and subdued the man. @News_8 @13WHAM @nypost @news10nbc @FoxNews @cnnbrk pic.twitter.com/d1ryz4F9fU

  — Ian Bradley (@bornawinner92) July 22, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/21/2022 – 22:15

• Border Crisis Contributed To Botched Response To Uvalde School Massacre: Report
  Border Crisis Contributed To Botched Response To Uvalde School Massacre: Report

  Authored by Charlotte Cuthbertson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  The school in which 19 children and two teachers were massacred on May 24, had been in lockdown four times in the month prior to the shooting, said Uvalde Mayor Don McLaughlin.

  

  Schools in the whole district had been in lockdown mode 47 times since February due to the border crisis spilling into the city, which is a smuggling corridor from the U.S.–Mexico border to San Antonio, a recent Texas House of Representatives report stated.

  Ninety percent of the lockdowns were due to law enforcement chases of suspected smuggling vehicles through Uvalde and subsequent bailouts—where the driver crashes or stops the vehicle and occupants jump out and scatter from law enforcement, the report said.

  The sheer increase in bailouts over the past 18 months and the subsequent lockdowns “contributed to a diminished sense of vigilance about responding to security alerts,” the Texas House report states.

  “The series of bailout-related alerts led teachers and administrators to respond to all alerts with less urgency—when they heard the sound of an alert, many assumed that it was another bailout.”

  Kenneth Mueller, director of student services for the Uvalde Consolidated Independent School District (CISD) testified to the committee that parents became so concerned about the number of bailouts occurring near the elementary-school campuses that they offered to hire off-duty police to supplement the Uvalde CISD police presence.

  

  Two months after the deadly massacre at Robb Elementary School, the school district is preparing for the beginning of a new year. But the Texas House review of law enforcement’s response to the May 24 shooting revealed a series of alarming failures by first responders. As a result, parents aren’t ready to send their kids back to a district they say is unsafe and where security problems remain unremedied.

  “We’re 30 days from school starting and we’re having pursuits come through. We’re having bailouts—we had one this morning in Uvalde,” McLaughlin told The Epoch Times on July 12.

  “And what’s going to happen when we have a bailout right by school and it has to go into lockdown? How much panic is there going to be? How much trauma is that going to cause these kids? A ton.”

  Parents of children who were slain in the shooting have told the mayor they’re considering homeschooling their other children.

  “I said I understand, but I can promise you from the city’s standpoint, we will do everything that we can to make sure your kids are safe,” McLaughlin said he told concerned parents.

  The mayor has requested additional state troopers to be deployed to Uvalde for the first two weeks of the school year.

  When asked if he thought some sort of “lockdown fatigue” existed at schools prior to the massacre, McLaughlin said, “I would think there would be, but I can’t speak for the school district.”

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/21/2022 – 22:00

• Rockaway Beach Shut Down Due To Shark Sightings Amidst Week Long Heat Wave
  Rockaway Beach Shut Down Due To Shark Sightings Amidst Week Long Heat Wave

  Sharks were spotted at Rockaway Beach this week, causing the New York Police Department to shut down all of the beaches.

  “ALL of the Rockaway beaches are currently closed for swimming due to shark sitings [sic] until further notice. The boardwalk is still OPEN!,” the New York Police Department’s 100th Precinct tweeted mid-week. 

  The New York City Department of Parks and Recreation confirmed the shutdown to Bloomberg, who reported that the New York Police Department was doing flyovers during the week looking for shark threats.

  The NYPD said beaches will reopen when it is “safe to do so”. 

  ***BREAKING***: ALL of the Rockaway beaches are currently closed for swimming 🏊‍♀️ due to shark sitings until further notice. The boardwalk is still OPEN!!!Thank you 😊 pic.twitter.com/Im33hy63tg

  — NYPD 100th Precinct (@NYPD100Pct) July 19, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The beaches have been on edge since a number of shark attacks, including ones against “a tourist, a surfer and a lifeguard,” according to the report. 

  New York Governor Kathy Hochul has ordered an increased lifeguard presence, patrols and aerial surveillance, and the state also plans on increasing drone capacity and deploying patrol boats to search the water. 

  Hocul said: “As New Yorkers and visitors alike head to our beautiful Long Island beaches to enjoy the summer, our top priority is their safety. We are taking action to expand patrols for sharks and protect beachgoers from potentially dangerous situations.”

  Meanwhile, like with every other profession, there has been a shortage of lifeguards in New York City. The lifeguard union struck a new deal with the city to raise starting wages to $19.46 an hour.

  Meanwhile, the week long heat wave on the east coast continues…

  

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/21/2022 – 21:40

• Antifa Summer Camp In Portland Teaches Anarchy To Children
  Antifa Summer Camp In Portland Teaches Anarchy To Children

  Authored by Matt McGregor via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  A summer camp in Portland, Oregon, is offering children the opportunity to become budding social justice warriors (SJW) while “reflecting on white supremacy” and learning Black Lives Matter (BLM) chants about putting “killer cops in jail.”

  

  The Budding Roses camp in August for fourth through eighth graders is a project of the Black Rose Anarchist Federation, a political organization promoting the tenets of anarchy that some would argue led to the Portland riots of 2020.

  In June 2021, the Portland Police Association issued a press release announcing that the Portland Police Bureau Rapid Response Team resigned from their voluntary positions due to the “political venom” of local politicians who not only failed to support but demonized the team during the Portland riots that began in 2020 and continued through 2021.

  The resignation is a step toward what Budding Roses teaches children in the chant, “Cops and borders, We don’t need them.”

  As with many SJW goals, the camp’s curriculum appears to be inflicting children with race obsession and graphic sexual concepts, as can be seen in a BLM coloring book espousing transgender affirmation and in a chant that compares the government to a rapist.

  “It’s the state that’s our oppressor, It’s the rapist government,” the chant reads.

  The camp also has a class on “Why Writing People in Prisons and Jails Matters” to instruct children on writing to incarcerated felons.

  “Letter writing with incarcerated people encompasses our commitment to change, and the intersection of our priorities,” it says. “In order to fight for prison abolition, we must connect with and advocate for those most impacted by the prison industrial complex.”

  In its “Tear Gas for Portlanders” class, a drawing of a person in Antifa garb who introduces himself as “your friendly neighborhood anti-fascist” gives a lecture on tear gas, how it’s made, where it has been used, how much the city of Portland has spent on it, and why it shouldn’t be used.

  According to the class, tear gas is another tool in the box of what it describes as a racist police force.

  As first reported in PJ Media, in 2018, the city of Portland awarded Budding Roses the Spirit of Portland Award for nonprofit initiative of the year; however, the recipients of the award who were there to accept it expressed ingratitude.

  “As Budding Roses, our goal is to empower the voices of youth, especially those most affected by white supremacy and patriarchy, and we strive to embody in all our work that power comes not from authority, but from below,” the recipient said. “Unfortunately, we find it ironic to be presented this award from a city that doesn’t seem to share these values, given its history of using police violence against anti-racist activists while shielding racist demonstrators, and most recently a proposal by Mayor Ted Wheeler to enforce a restrictive protest policy.”

  The city of Portland, Budding Roses, and the Black Rose Anarchist Federation didn’t respond to The Epoch Times’ request for comment.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/21/2022 – 21:20

• Polio Detected In New York, First US Case Since 2013
  Polio Detected In New York, First US Case Since 2013

  New York state health officials alerted Rockland County residents about a confirmed polio case on Thursday. The last naturally occurring case of polio in the U.S. was in 1979. Health officials believe this case might have originated from outside the U.S., which would be the first since 2013. 

  The New York State Department of Health (NYSDOH) and the Rockland County Department of Health advised hospitals in the state to be extra vigilant for additional cases. Polio is a viral disease and once the nation’s most feared sickness in the 1950s, which caused neurological symptoms, paralysis, or death and has been eradicated since 1979. 

  

  The iconic photo of an infected child with polio in an iron lung mechanical respirator. 

  

  NYSDOH believes the infected person (still no details about the individual’s age or if they traveled outside of the country) has a vaccine-derived strain of the virus and got it from someone outside the country. The person is also unvaccinated against polio, NYTimes confirmed. 

  In this case, sequencing performed by the Wadsworth Center – NYSDOH’s public health laboratory – and confirmed by CDC showed revertant polio Sabin type 2 virus. This is indicative of a transmission chain from an individual who received the oral polio vaccine (OPV), which is no longer authorized or administered in the U.S., where only the inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) has been given since 2000. This suggests that the virus may have originated in a location outside of the U.S. where OPV is administered, since revertant strains cannot emerge from inactivated vaccines. – NYSDOH

  Transmission of the virus appears to be through vaccine shedding. The vaccine in question is the oral polio vaccine (OPV), an attenuated (or “live virus”) vaccine given to people outside of the US. People who are given active vaccines have the tendency to shed the virus and infect others.  

  Parts of the world where OPV is administered are mainly developing countries, such as Afghanistan and Pakistan, and ones in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. 

  Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation has been a big driver of polio vaccine funding. But a 2019 article from Science indicates the decades-long eradication campaign “suffered major setbacks.”

  Since 2000, only inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) has been given to U.S. children, and since it’s inactive or dead, there’s no risk of shedding. 

  NYSDOH is now requesting those who are “vaccinated but at risk of exposure” to get a “booster.” 

  Add polio boosters to the expanding listing of vaccines the government is trying to force into the bodies of Americans, including COVID boosters and ones for Monkeypox. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/21/2022 – 21:00

• Growing Number Of K-12 Teachers Charged With Child Sex Crimes In Recent Months: Analysis
  Growing Number Of K-12 Teachers Charged With Child Sex Crimes In Recent Months: Analysis

  Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  At least 181 K-12 teachers, principals, and staff have been arrested for child sex crimes in the United States so far this year, according to an analysis of reports.

  

  At least 181 educators been arrested between Jan. 1 and June 30, according to a Fox News analysis. Arrests that did not make it in media reports were not counted.

  Four principals, 153 teachers, 12 substitute teachers, and 12 teachers were arrested on a litany of charges, including sexually assaulting students and possessing child pornography. About 140 of those who were arrested carried out alleged crimes against students.

  For example, an educator in Delaware, identified as High Road School teacher James Garfield, was arrested last week for allegedly assaulting a 15-year-old student. He was charged with two counts of felony rape and related charges, according to local media.

  Days before that, a teacher in Warren, Pennsylvania, was arrested and charged after he allegedly sexually assaulted a 15-year-old student. He was charged with aggravated indecent assault, institutional sexual assault, and other charges, it was reported.

  Weeks before that, a Hoboken, New Jersey man admitted to raping two 17-year-old girls while he worked as a gym teacher in two different public school districts in Hudson County, New Jersey. In late June, 45-year-old Francisco Realpe pleaded guilty to two counts of sexual assault, prosecutors said.

  Christopher Rufo, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute an activist who has battled the spread of critical race theory in classrooms, called for a new study on child sex abuse in schools.

  “This is a scandal that the political Left is doing everything in its power to suppress,” he said in a statement to Fox News. “The basic fact is incontrovertible: every day, a public school teacher is arrested, indicted, or convicted for child sex abuse. And yet, the teachers unions, the public school bureaucracies, and the left-wing media pretend that the abuse isn’t happening and viciously attack families who raise concerns.”

  In an article published in April, Rufo noted that the Department of Education last released a report in 2004 (pdf), which said nearly 9.6 percent of students have been targeted by teachers for sexual misconduct in K-12 classrooms.

  “The most comprehensive report about sexual abuse in public schools, published by the Department of Education in 2004, estimates—on the basis of a 2000 survey, conducted by the American Association of University Women, of 2,065 students in grades eight through 11—that nearly 10 percent of K-12 students have been victims of sexual misconduct by a public school employee,” he wrote.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/21/2022 – 20:40

• "Let's Tap The Brakes" – America's Largest Landlords Pull Back From Home-Buying-Spree
  “Let’s Tap The Brakes” – America’s Largest Landlords Pull Back From Home-Buying-Spree

  America’s largest landlords have changed course as the highest interest rate increases in decades to squash rising inflation has slowed down acquisitions of single-family homes. 

  KKR & Co.’s My Community Homes, American Homes 4 Rent, and Amherst Holdings have reduced home buying in recent weeks, according to Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the efforts.

  The people, who asked not to be named, said some institutional buyers slashed buying activity by more than 50%. 

  

  Mynd Management, a real estate platform that helps investors find, buy, lease, manage, and sell residential investment properties, has advised institutional clients to dial back acquisitions and wait for housing prices to readjust to the interest rate shock. 

  In an interview, Mynd’s CEO Doug Brien told Bloomberg that market conditions could improve in the fall as “buying opportunities” emerge. He said, for the time being, “let’s tap the brakes and watch the markets.” 

  Brien’s ‘wait and see approach’ comes as the Biden admin’s intention to crush the housing market (with the help of the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes) and spark a powerful recession to combat the highest inflation in forty years. 

  Home sales have been rapidly slowing as 30Y mortgage rates jumped in the year’s first half, spiking at the fastest pace on record and unleashing a housing affordability crisis, curbing demand. 

  … setting the stage for a sharp repricing lower in home prices, hence why Brien has told institutional clients to pause buying due to the risk of overpaying. 

  Industry executives say the recent slowdown has not dampened their enthusiasm for single-family rentals, and many expect the housing market to offer better opportunities in the months ahead. Those could come in the form of lower home prices, rising rents, or an increased willingness by homebuilders to sell properties in bulk. -Bloomberg

  Institutional homebuyers are already preparing for the price slide (we point out this slide already started). NexPoint Advisors raised $2.5 billion for a new single-family rental fund in June. 

  “When there’s no certainty in the market, everybody pauses,” said Mike McMullen. He runs Prominence Homes, a Birmingham, Alabama, home builder specializing in rental houses and a real estate brokerage that helps investors acquire properties.

  So if institutional buyers have paused buying and millions of Americans can no longer afford homes, how far do prices fall until a buyer remerges? 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/21/2022 – 20:20

• Democrat House Majority Leader Refuses To Commit To Supporting Biden 2024
  Democrat House Majority Leader Refuses To Commit To Supporting Biden 2024

  Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

  Democrat House majority leader Steny Hoyer (D-NY) refused to commit to supporting Biden 2024 in another sign that the president is being jettisoned as his cognitive abilities decline.

  

  Hoyer made the comments during an appearance on Neil Cavuto’s Fox News show.

  “Let me ask you this, do you think, as some in your party are saying, [Biden] should run again, he’s open to running again, he’s not too old to run again?” Cavuto asked Hoyer.

  “Neil, I-I-I’m not gonna go there,” Hoyer replied. “You’re asking about problems today, this is about today. There’s an inflation problem.”

  WATCH: Democrat House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer REFUSES to say if Biden should run in 2024.

  “I’m not going to go there” pic.twitter.com/XdvRDFT6ge

  — RNC Research (@RNCResearch) July 20, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “Well, six out of 10 Democrats don’t think the President’s up to dealing with this today,” Cavuto interjected, but Hoyer refused to be drawn on the matter.

  With the New York Times having published six hit pieces against Biden’s candidacy in the last two months, the rats appear to be fleeing the sinking ship.

  Front and center as the reason is Biden’s declining cognitive abilities, with him stumbling into yet another verbal gaffe yesterday by saying he had cancer.

  Biden: “I and so many other people I grew up with have cancer.” pic.twitter.com/TUiBZJqbBR

  — Greg Price (@greg_price11) July 20, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) also refused to say she’d support Biden running again during an appearance on CNN last month.

  Yesterday, we highlighted the comments of Dick Morris, former top advisor to Bill Clinton, who sensationally claimed that Hillary is being lined up to replace Biden.

  According to Morris, the Democratic establishment knows “that Biden can’t run again in 2024” due to his “quickly declining mental abilities” and the economic disaster he had presided over.

  As we document in the video below, given how he has behaved over the last two years, the notion that Biden would come out on top of debates with Trump two years from now is absurd.

  *  *  *

  Brand new merch now available! Get it at https://www.pjwshop.com/

  In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch. I need you to sign up for my free newsletter here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown. Get early access, exclusive content and behinds the scenes stuff by following me on Locals.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/21/2022 – 20:00

• Amazon To Deploy Rivian Electric Vans For Prime Deliveries In These Cities
  Amazon To Deploy Rivian Electric Vans For Prime Deliveries In These Cities

  Amazon is the world’s largest online retailer and has a large carbon footprint regarding its nationwide network of fulfillment centers and delivery vehicles that transport packages from warehouse to warehouse and the last mile: to the customer’s doorstep.

  By 2030, the company has promised to have at least half of its shipments considered carbon-neutral and increase the use of renewable energy.

  When examining the environmental impact of Amazon, the company is a massive emitter of carbon emissions. Its transportation network involves vans, trucks, and airplanes to transport packages. 

  In September 2019, Amazon founder and then-CEO Jeff Bezos declared war on climate change by announcing his company “just placed an order for 100,000 electric delivery vans” produced by Rivian. He said Amazon has ambitions to be entirely carbon neutral by 2040. 

  The first Rivian vans are “hitting the road in Baltimore, Chicago, Dallas, Kansas City, Nashville, Phoenix, San Diego, Seattle, and St. Louis, among other cities,” according to Amazon on Thursday. 

  

  Amazon said customers across the US would begin to see “thousands” of Rivian vans by the year’s end and expect 100,000 in metro areas by 2030. 

  

  “Fighting the effects of climate change requires constant innovation and action, and Amazon is partnering with companies who share our passion for inventing new ways to minimize our impact on the environment. Rivian has been an excellent partner in that mission, and we’re excited to see our first custom electric delivery vehicles on the road,” said Andy Jassy, CEO of Amazon.

  Amazon has been testing Rivian preproduction vans since 2021 and has delivered over 430,000 packages. “This significant testing has allowed Rivian to continuously improve the vehicle’s performance, safety, and durability in various climates and geographies as well as its state-of-the-art features to ensure driver satisfaction and overall functionality,” Amazon said in a press release. 

  During the testing, we noted Amazon raised questions about the EV vans: Rivian Shares Plunge After Amazon Agrees To “Significant” EV Van Deal With Stellantis and Rivian Tumbles After Report Amazon Testing “Reveals Questions About Battery Power, Cameras.”

  

  However, there’s a significant problem we’ve spotted. The massive EV rollout over the coming years will require considerable investments in the power grid to boost spare power capacity through new generation sources (such as solar and wind nuclear) to meet soaring power demand. 

  For instance, last week, power demand in Texas hit a record, and spare grid capacity was limited, forcing state grid operator ERCOT to call for conservation to prevent blackouts. Meanwhile, Tesla asked customers in the state not to charge EVs during peak demand times. 

  If power grids aren’t modernized during corporate fleets transitioning from fossil fuels to EVs — then power grids across the country could become unstable, just like in Texas. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/21/2022 – 19:40

• "Republicans Are Just Going After Him": Media Starts The Spin On Possible Hunter Biden Charges
  “Republicans Are Just Going After Him”: Media Starts The Spin On Possible Hunter Biden Charges

  Authored by Jonathan Turley,

  The media is reporting that the criminal investigation of Hunter Biden is at a “critical stage” with the grand jury considering an array of charges including various tax violations and possible foreign lobbying violations. I previously testified in Congress on possible criminal exposure for Hunter under the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA). There seems ample evidence for such charges but there remain some glaring questions in how the Biden Administration has handled the investigation of the Biden family.

  What is also striking is the initial response of pundits on cable channels like MSNBC that has long ignored or downplayed the allegations.

  

  The most glaring question raised the report is, again, the refusal of Attorney General Merrick Garland to appoint a Special Counsel despite overwhelming justification for such an appointment. For over a year, I have been writing on the obvious need for a special counsel in an investigation that not only is embarrassing for the Biden family but implicates not just Hunter but his uncle and his father.

  Given this mounting evidence, the position of Attorney General Garland has gone from dubious to ridiculous in evading the issue of a special counsel appointment.  He continues to refuse to acknowledge these conflicts with the President.

  Federal regulations allow the appointment of a special counsel when it is in the public interest and an “investigation or prosecution of that person or matter by a United States Attorney’s Office or litigating Division of the Department of Justice would present a conflict of interest for the Department or other extraordinary circumstances.”

  It is hard to imagine a stronger case for the appointment of a special counsel. Attorney General Garland has failed in his duty to protect the Justice Department from such conflicts or the appearance of such conflicts.

  There will be lingering questions over the independence of the investigation. For example, if you are investigating lobbying violations tied to Hunter’s open influence peddling, why would you not ask to question the man referred to as the “big guy” who was purportedly cut in for a ten percent share of one of the most dubious deals? He is also the same man who reportedly received money from shared accounts and was referenced by Hunter to foreign clients as part of the inducement for giving him money. He is the object of the influence peddling. He is also now the President of the United States.

  Without speaking with such figures, the Justice Department could be accused of engaging in willful blindness to possible conspiracy violations involving not just Hunter but his family. If Hunter is then given a plea deal on limited charges, it will magnify those questions. That would particularly be the case if the case is closed before Republicans take the House and start their own investigation into the matter. That danger of an appearance of a conflict could have been avoided with simply appointing a special counsel over a year ago.

  What is also striking is the response in the media, which long called the Hunter Biden laptop “Russian disinformation” or fake news.  On MSNBC, Paul Begala dismissed the importance of any criminal charges of the President’s son in a multimillion dollar influence peddling scheme:

  “No. No. I wish the guy well. He struggled with addiction, and, you know, nobody has charged him with anything. But this has been a Republican fixation to no avail. They have got no political gain out of this. I looked up Ron Johnson, the senator from Wisconsin, a couple of months ago, was asked about mass shootings … He said, ‘Before we pass anything new on guns, let’s enforce the law we already have. Let’s start with Hunter Biden.’ What the heck? So it’s a challenge for Hunter Biden. I wish him well, but it’s not going to be a political issue.”

  The response of Kasie Hunt was even more interesting:

  “It seems like, if anything, it probably energizes Democrats because it makes them think it’s political and that Republicans are just going after him for that reason.”

  This would be an indictment under the Biden Administration but Hunt is already portraying the expected criticism as “Republicans are just going after him.” There remains no expression of concern over emails detailing millions of dollars going to Hunter as he raises access and meetings with his father. The same pundits who dismissed or downplayed the basis for the investigation are now dismissing the possible finding of probable cause of federal crimes.

  As discussed earlier, it remains astonishing how successful the Biden family was making the scandal vanish before that 2020 election with the help of most of the media. It was analogized to Houdini making his 10,000-pound elephant Jennie disappear in his act. The Biden trick however occurred live before an audience of millions. The media has made the story disappear except for a couple of the usual outlets.

  The start of the spin shows that even criminal charges might not force the media to see the whole elephant. The key to the trick was involving the media in the original trick is that it invests reporters in the illusion. It is like calling audience members to the stage to assist in the performance. Reporters have to insist that there was nothing to see or they have to admit to being part of the original deception. The media cannot see the elephant without the public seeing something about the media in its past efforts to conceal it.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/21/2022 – 19:20

• Blackstone Prepares A Record $50 Billion To Snap Up Real Estate During The Coming Crash
  Blackstone Prepares A Record $50 Billion To Snap Up Real Estate During The Coming Crash

  The past two months have seen a barrage of negative news coverage focusing on the US housing market…

  • Is The Housing Crash Starting?

  • Why The Housing Bubble Bust Is Baked-In

  • The One Housing Chart That Shows A ‘Buyer’s Market’ Has Returned

  • As Mortgage Rates Explode Price Cuts Soar And Buyer Demand Collapses

  • Housing Market Peaks: Home Prices Finally Drop From All-Time Highs

  … which is predictable: after all, with mortgage rates soaring at the fastest pace on record to decade highs, and sending US housing affordability to the lowest in history…

  

  … only a handful of the “1%” can afford the American Dream.

  Alas, it also means that just like in 2007, a housing crash is now just a matter of time.

  That much is known. What is also know, is that once housing craters, the largest US residential and commercial landlord – private equity giant Blackstone – is about to get even bigger. That’s when it will deploy some (or all) of the record $50 billion in dry powder it has raised to prepare for just the coming housing crash.

  According to the WSJ, Blackstone is the final stages of raising a new real-estate fund that would set a record as the biggest vehicle of its kind, defying market volatility and a crowded landscape for fundraising.

  The private-equity giant said in a regulatory filing Wednesday it has closed on commitments totaling $24.1 billion for Blackstone Real Estate Partners X, the latest iteration of its main real-estate fund.

  According to the WSJ, Blackstone is committing about $300 million of its own capital and has allocated an additional $5.9 billion to investors, which will bring the fund to $30.3 billion when it is finalized. The firm raised the fund, expected to be the largest traditional private-equity vehicle in history, in just three month. It was also Blackstone that set the prior record, with the $26 billion buyout fund it raised in 2019. The new real-estate fund will be 50% larger than its predecessor, a $20.5 billion pool raised in 2019.

  Together with funds dedicated to real estate in Asia and Europe, Blackstone will have a war chest of more than $50 billion to do so-called opportunistic investments, which tend to be higher-risk deals with the potential for higher returns.

  That, according to the WSJ, “could allow the firm to take advantage of a downturn in the public markets.” Translation: at a time when Americans are liquidating their housing en masse to shore up liquidity when the bottom falls out from the economy, Blackstone will step in and buy all the distressed properties at pennies on the dollar, becoming an even bigger presence in US, and global, real estate.

  Not surprisingly, many of Blackstone’s best-performing deals—like its 2014 purchase of the Cosmopolitan casino and hotel in Las Vegas and its 2016 deal for life-sciences buildings owner BioMed Realty Trust —were struck during periods of market turmoil.

  It won’t be just Blackstone that goes bottom fishing in a few months: a slew of private-equity funds are in the market this year, with many trying to raise huge sums even after stocks fell and deal-making dried up. The surge in requests for new cash has overwhelmed investment teams at institutions such as pension funds and endowments and has meant many have delayed making commitments to all but the top managers.

  The size of Blackstone’s new fund and the speed at which it was able to raise the money demonstrate that institutional investors are still eager to participate in vehicles being offered by established managers with good records. And while the ranks of $20 billion-plus buyout funds have been growing, there are still relatively few real-estate megafunds comparable with Blackstone’s.

  As the WSJ adds, just like the firm as a whole, Blackstone’s $298 billion real-estate business has embraced a thematic investment strategy with the goal of targeting areas of the economy where growth is outpacing inflation. That has led it to focus on four key areas: warehouses used for e-commerce; life-sciences office buildings; rental housing; and hospitality tied to travel and leisure. It has also excelled in all four areas, long ago becoming the largest US residential landlord much to the chagrin of tens of millions of Americans who dutifully pay Steve Schwarzman for the privilege of having a roof over their head.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/21/2022 – 19:00

• Pennsylvania Lawmaker Issues Report Detailing 'Myriad Of Election Issues'
  Pennsylvania Lawmaker Issues Report Detailing ‘Myriad Of Election Issues’

  Authored by Beth Brelje via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  More than two months after Pennsylvania’s May 17 primary election, the Department of State still has not certified the election results. It’s an administrative failure that undermines confidence in the state’s election system, according to Republican state Rep. Seth Grove, chairman of the State Government Committee.

  

  That is one of numerous examples Grove described at the state capital building in Harrisburg during a July 19 press conference in which he released a 186-page report (pdf) with the long title, “Election Reform in Pennsylvania: Missed Opportunities and Continued Chaos-an Interim Report on The Status of Elections in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania After the Veto of House Bill 1300.”

  Grove is still advocating for something like HB 1300, which Gov. Tom Wolf vetoed in June 2021. It was a package of election reforms that called for voter identification and provided for early in-person voting; moved the voter registration deadline back from 15 days to 30 days before the election; established a state bureau of election audits; allowed for pre-canvassing of mailed ballots; and would have made it easier for older and disabled voters by moving them to the front of the line or providing curbside voting so they could remain in their car.

  The bill also introduced stiffer fines and longer possible prison terms for election tampering.

  But Wolf didn’t go for it.

  “This bill is ultimately not about improving access to voting or election security, but about restricting the freedom to vote,” Wolf said in a statement about the veto. “If adopted it would threaten to disrupt election administration, undermine faith in government, and invite costly, time-consuming, and destabilizing litigation.”

  It didn’t seem like Wolf read the bill, Grove said in his report.

  “Unfortunately, Gov. Wolf vetoed the bill despite seeming largely unfamiliar with the contents. By vetoing the legislation, he made himself the sole obstacle to historic reform that would have improved nearly every aspect of election administration in Pennsylvania. Most importantly, it would have allowed the General Assembly to live up to our constitutional requirement for uniformity and fairness in elections and prevent any reoccurrence of the national attention our current, broken process received during and after the November 2020 Election.”

  Incidents from the Report

  The report details troubles in the state’s elections that have happened since 2020. The following incidents are a sampling of those described in more detail in the report:

  In 2021, a Luzerne County man admitted to using his deceased mother’s information to apply for an absentee ballot.

  During the May 2021 primary, some counties faced a shortage of paper ballots at polling places on election day, in part due to higher than expected in-person voting. Shortages happened in Clearfield, Delaware, Lebanon, and York counties, and possibly others.

  In Fayette County during the same election, an issue with barcodes meant ballots were not scanning or being recorded. Affected ballots were set aside and counted by hand when polls closed.

  Also in the May 2021 primary, nine Snyder County voters received the wrong ballots, and Erie County voters left two polling sites with their marked ballots.

  During the November 2021 general election, during the preelection process, Berks County’s Spanish-language ballot instructions included the incorrect date for the election, affecting 17,000 mail-in ballots.

  In the same election, the Lehigh County Board of Elections decided to count undated ballots. In response, members of the House Republican Caucus issued a letter threatening impeachment unless the law was followed. The matter resulted in litigation in federal courts, with the 3rd Circuit Court of Appeals ordering the undated ballots be counted.

  That was not the last of ballot issues.

  Another case in federal district court challenged the practice of disqualifying ballots lacking a secrecy envelope. The case is not yet resolved.

  And recently, the Department of State filed suit against the Berks, Lancaster, and Fayette county boards of elections over certification disputes arising from the 2022 primary election. At issue is the treatment of ballots lacking a date. These counties certified results excluding such ballots, as required by Pennsylvania law.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/21/2022 – 18:40

• Biden Tests Positive: Is It Still A Pandemic Of The Unvaccinated?
  Biden Tests Positive: Is It Still A Pandemic Of The Unvaccinated?

  Update (1400ET): President Biden has tweeted a short clip to remind everyone he is “double vaccinated and double boosted” and to tell Americans to “keep the faith”?

  An update from me: pic.twitter.com/L2oCR0uUTu

  — President Biden (@POTUS) July 21, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  As Techno Fog notes via The Reactionary, the whole thing has reached the point of absurdity. As we noted below, Biden said in July 2021 that if you’re vaccinated, “You’re not going to get Covid.”

  July 2021: Joe Biden: “You’re not going to get Covid if you have these vaccinations.”

  July 2022: Joe Biden tests positive for Covid.pic.twitter.com/y4UjRcyGd0

  — James Melville (@JamesMelville) July 21, 2022

  That guarantee from Biden was significant. After that statement, there was a multi-pronged effort to scapegoat the continuation of the “pandemic” on the unvaccinated. Dr. Fauci blamed the unvaccinated for “propagating” the latest outbreak, saying we need to “do something to get them to be vaccinated.”

  That term do something suggested action. State governments and cities began issuing their own vaccination requirements. New York City led the way, requiring “proof of at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine for a variety of activities for workers and customers — indoor dining, gyms and performances — to put pressure on people to get vaccinated.”

  The media called for more extreme measures, demanding Biden institute a “no-fly list for unvaccinated adults.” They called for mandates. They begged for the federal government to raise “the costs of remaining unvaccinated.” Thankfully, they didn’t get much of what they asked for. COVID-19 cases are rising in many of the most vaccinated states, including California. The mandates and the vaccines haven’t stopped the spread.

  As to Biden’s current COVID-19 diagnosis?

  At least it isn’t cancer. The remarkable thing about Biden’s purported cancer “gaffe” – apart from (incorrectly?) saying he has cancer – is that he didn’t notice he said he has cancer. A normal mind might correct itself after making such a seismic error. Biden didn’t comprehend the significance of his statement. He just continued mumbling along, reading words off a screen as fast as he could before getting out of that riverfront hellscape.

  President Biden just said he has cancer.

  Is it true?

  Or is the Commander in Chief confused?

  Who knows!! pic.twitter.com/OyrPXCYrd2

  — Techno Fog (@Techno_Fog) July 20, 2022

  *  *  *

  Despite being double-vaccinated and double-boosted (and despite having promised Americans exactly a year ago that if you take the vaccines you won’t get COVID), The White House is reporting that 79-year-old President Biden has tested positive for COVID-19 this morning.

  

  Statement from Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre (emphasis and images ours)

  This morning, President Biden tested positive for COVID-19. He is fully vaccinated and twice boosted and experiencing very mild symptoms.

  He has begun taking Paxlovid.

  Consistent with CDC guidelines, he will isolate at the White House and will continue to carry out all of his duties fully during that time. He has been in contact with members of the White House staff by phone this morning, and will participate in his planned meetings at the White House this morning via phone and Zoom from the residence.

  Consistent with White House protocol for positive COVID cases, which goes above and beyond CDC guidance, he will continue to work in isolation until he tests negative. Once he tests negative, he will return to in-person work.

  Out of an abundance of transparency, the White House will provide a daily update on the Presidents status as he continues to carry out the full duties of the office while in isolation.

  Per standard protocol for any positive case at the White House, the White House Medical Unit will inform all close contacts of the President during the day today, including any Members of Congress and any members of the press who interacted with the President during yesterday’s travel.

  The President’s last previous test for COVID was Tuesday, when he had a negative test result.

  The President’s Doctor sent a clarifying note to The White House Press Secretary.

  

  We are sure he will ‘say the line’…

  

  We wonder what she’s thinking…

  

  It’s been quite a month for the president: falls off bike, fist-bumps MbS, lies about cancer, gets COVID, and hits new record low approval rating.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/21/2022 – 18:33

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• The Wuhan 'Disinformation'
  The Wuhan ‘Disinformation’

  Authored by Pete Hoekstra via The Gatestone Institute,

  • These are startling reversals by both organizations: the WHO and the Lancet Commission. They have consistently ridiculed and downplayed the possibility that the virus originated and escaped from a laboratory in Wuhan, China. Now, nearly three years after COVID-19 began devastating the world as we knew it, there is just this collective “Oops!”?

  • For two years the WHO, the Lancet and others have been stooges for the Chinese Communists. It is time to identify them all and hold them accountable for their grave errors. Their actions probably cost the lives of millions and have so far allowed China to escape accountability.

  • It seems that while covering for the Chinese Communists since the beginning of the pandemic, Sachs also decided to absolve them of accountability, and instead point the finger of responsibility at the U.S.

  • Sachs may have a point, but he is not the one in any position to deliver more messages. The U.S. Congress must thoroughly investigate the U.S. government’s role and cooperation with China in biotechnology research, including the coordination between U.S. labs and labs around the world engaged in further, reportedly even more dangerous types of research.

  • The Chinese government must be held to account for the Wuhan lab leak, the coverup, hoarding vital medical supplies, damage to the global economy, and most importantly, the deaths of more than 6.3 million people worldwide.

  

  “My sources,” read the incoming email on January 24, 2020, “received reliable information according to which the situation related to corona virus infection is very serious and it’s hundreds the people who drop in the streets like flies both in Wuhan and in other 12 provinces.”

  The message continued:

  “The information given by Chinese government don’t represent the huge risk linked to new corona virus.

  “My sources confirm the new corona virus escaped from National Bio-safety Laboratory, in Wuhan, which is BSL-4 lab, through a laboratory technician who went in touch with this new corona virus.

  “My sources say Chinese Authorities are covering this ‘incident’ happened inside the laboratory. So, it’s extremely urgent to understand and to face the situation like a lethal threat for US National Security and the rest of the world.”

  The message came from a reliable European intelligence source with whom I had worked after leaving Congress and who had shared information on multiple issues. Like all intelligence sources, his material always needed to be vetted and confirmed, and, as happens in the intelligence world, results sometimes vary.

  Over the next two years, he sent hundreds of additional emails about the COVID pandemic. Some of the information was clearly out of the mainstream. The World Health Organization (WHO) and mainstream medical professionals made it very clear that the only accepted explanation for the source of the pandemic was via natural transmission from some wet market or lost bat.

  There was little-to-no consideration given — in fact there was only outright dismissal and derision given — to the possibility that the virus might have been scientifically manipulated and released — or had escaped from — a laboratory.

  That all officially changed in a stunning set of events within the last few days. First it was reported that WHO Director Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus believes COVID most likely leaked from the Wuhan laboratory. The WHO revised its earlier position, that a natural explanation was the most likely, to now saying that all options for the origins of COVID should be on the table.

  In addition, Jeffrey Sachs, the lead of the Lancet COVID 19 Commission, has stated that he now is convinced that the pandemic started in the lab. These are startling reversals by both organizations: The WHO and the Lancet Commission. They have consistently ridiculed and downplayed the possibility that the virus originated and escaped from a laboratory in Wuhan, China. Now, nearly three years after COVID began devastating the world as we knew it, there is just this collective “Oops!”?

  These two organizations had from the start been at the forefront of promoting — insisting on — the natural origin of the virus. As my source indicated in his correspondence, there were those who suspected in late 2019 and early 2020 that the virus had escaped from the Wuhan laboratory, that it was far more dangerous than the Chinese were telling the rest of the world, and that the Chinese were firmly trying to cover it up.

  The key points made by my source on January 24, 2020, have proven to be totally accurate. With the recent admissions by Tedros and Sachs and the organizations they represent, the prevailing origin theory now rests on the Wuhan laboratory. The virus has proven to be more deadly than the Chinese have ever let on, and to this day, the Chinese Communist Party government has not cooperated with international organizations to contain the virus or determine its exact origins.

  China has instead done the exact opposite. In the initial stages, it cleansed the Wuhan wet market, refused to allow outside investigators in, refused to share information with the international community, and as the virus developed, allowed people to flee Wuhan on flights to the outside world as the city itself was being locked down.

  For two years the WHO, the Lancet and others have been stooges for the Chinese Communists. It is time to identify them all and hold them accountable for their grave errors. Their actions probably cost the lives of millions and have so far allowed China to escape accountability.

  One would think that the WHO and the Lancet would be reserved in making any more statements and observations about COVID, but that is not what is happening. Sachs, his credibility now in tatters, has been making a new pronouncement: that the COVID virus was created with the aid of U.S. biotechnology.

  It seems that while covering for the Chinese Communists since the beginning of the pandemic, Sachs also decided to absolve them of accountability, and instead point the finger of responsibility at the U.S.

  Sachs may have a point, but he is not in any position to deliver more messages. The U.S. Congress must thoroughly investigate the U.S. government’s role and cooperation with China in biotechnology research, including the coordination between U.S. labs and labs around the world engaged in further, reportedly even more dangerous types of research.

  If, as seems possible, U.S. research dollars and information might have found its way into places it never should have been, it is time for the American people to demand action. More than one million Americans have died, yet Congress has done somewhere between little and nothing to determine the origins of or accountability for the virus.

  While Congress needs to examine what role, if any, the U.S. government had in the research leading to the deadly virus, America’s role is surely minor when compared to that of the government of the Chinese Communist Party. The Chinese government must be held to account for the Wuhan lab leak, the coverup, hoarding vital medical supplies, damage to the global economy, and most importantly, the deaths of more than 6.3 million people worldwide.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/20/2022 – 23:40

• Portland Parents Encouraged To Send Their Kids To “Social Justice Summer Camp”
  Portland Parents Encouraged To Send Their Kids To “Social Justice Summer Camp”

  Watch out for those groomers.  Hard left ideologues have long sought to target other people’s children as a means to indoctrinate the next generation while they are young, naive and easily manipulated.  Frankly, it’s the only way to effectively spread what amounts to cultural Marxism – Most adults with normal upbringings are going to ask too many questions and have too many criticisms.  Leftists see the stalking and grooming of young people as fair game, because in their minds the ends justify the means and their agenda is viewed as sacrosanct.

  In other words, mentally enslave the children of today and you own the adult voters of tomorrow.  The latest attempt is a relatively new camp program in Portland, Oregon operated by a group called ‘Budding Roses’ (a rather unsettling name considering the topic).  The group was founded as a part of the Black Rose Anarchist Foundation and the camp is open to students from 4th to 8th grade. 

  

  The curriculum of Budding Roses has a mix of online and camp lessons, but they appear to all have the same basic bent:  

  Black As Resistance: 4 Kids – Your children can learn all about white colonialism, anti-blackness, “self defense,” and more!

  Police Abolition – Imagining a world without police.

  Transformative Justice – Individuals “affected by injustice” address their grievances and demand reparations.  

  White Supremacy Reflection – Terms like “white supremacy.” “intersectionality,” and “privilege” are explained.  Learn about the original sin of being white!

  Writing People In Prison – Want your children to start a correspondence with convicted criminals?  Budding Roses will teach them how!

  The list continues, but you get the general idea.  

  We have seen many such indoctrination attempts over the past few years, including a woke sex education camp for children based out of Hazard, Kentucky which covered such fun topics as the different methods for masturbation.  Numerous other camps across the US have adopted the gender identity insanity, allowing biological males to be housed with biological females as long as they identify as “trans.”  This same philosophy has led to some horrible incidents of manipulation and victimization in public schools.

  For example, in Loudoun County, VA, a boy claiming to be a transgender girl was allowed to frequent the girls bathrooms at Loudoun High School in the name of inclusion, only to have him rape a 15-year-old girl at the school.  The Loudoun School Board attempted to ignore and then hide the event while having the father of the victim arrested at a school board meeting when he argued the issue.  The mainstream media has since tried to claim that conservatives “lied” about the Loudoun incident because the girl had allegedly had two encounters with the assailant in the past, yet the boy in question was CONVICTED of sexual assault in juvenile court.  This is not in question.  

  The point is, social justice proponents often overlook the highly negative effects associated with exposing children to their ideology.  They don’t care about the children, they only care about how those children can be used as tools for the furtherance of their cause.  

  Set aside the fact that the majority of lessons that are taught as a part of woke curriculum are based in faulty logic, misrepresentations of history and outright lies.  The risks go well beyond the mental grooming and delve into the potential for sexual grooming as well.  With no attempt to separate children according to biological sex, these camps are just asking for trouble.  Perhaps they even welcome such trouble.  

  Woke lessons within camp settings are much more pervasive than many people realize.  It’s not just the dedicated Anarchist/socialist brainwashing camps, it’s bigger venues as well.  Boy Scouts and Girls Scouts of America have seen a dramatic plunge in their membership numbers since they began adopting leftist talking points and lessons.  The Girl Scouts in particular have gone full bore SJW with their “anti-racism” programs which teach about diversity, equity, inclusion and racial justice.

  It’s the same old made-up buzzwords used as a cover for collectivism, conformity and socialism/communism.  When they said they’re coming for your children, they were quite serious.      

   

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/20/2022 – 23:20

• 'A New World Order Is Coming' – Putin Blasts "Globalist" Ideology As "Totalitarian"
  ‘A New World Order Is Coming’ – Putin Blasts “Globalist” Ideology As “Totalitarian”

  Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

  Russian President Vladimir Putin asserted earlier today that the “globalist” world order is “totalitarian” and is “holding back creative pursuit.”

  

  Putin made the comments during a forum in Moscow.

  The notorious leader claimed that the west had only achieved its global preeminence due to the historic plunder of other nations and had no moral right to enforce a unipolar model on the planet.

  “The model of the total dominance of the so-called ‘golden billion’ is unjust. Why should this ‘golden billion’ among the planet’s population dominate others, impose its own rules of conduct?” Putin asked.

  “Based on the illusion of ‘exclusivity,’ this model divides people into first and second class status, and is therefore racist and neo-colonial in its essence,” he added.

  “And the globalist, supposedly liberal ideology which underlies it is increasingly acquiring the features of totalitarianism, holding back creative pursuit, free historical creation,” Putin claimed.

  A new world order is coming

  From the speech of President Putin at the ASI forum: pic.twitter.com/yR8Rq5Hj83

  — Spriteer (@spriteer_774400) July 20, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The Russian President went on to stress his view that the globalist world order was built off the exploitation of other countries.

  “Of course, this ‘golden billion’ did not become ‘golden’ by accident. It has achieved a lot. But it did not only take up its positions thanks to the realization of some ideas, but to a large extent due to the robbery of other peoples – both in Asia and Africa. That’s what happened.”

  He then proclaimed that western elites are terrified that their global order is being dismantled.

  “No matter how much Western and so-called supranational elites strive to preserve the existing order of things, a new era is coming, a new stage in world history. And only truly sovereign states can ensure high dynamics for growth and become an example for others,” said Putin.

  As we have previously highlighted, Putin has consistently blamed the west for its own downfall.

  Back in March, he gave a speech in which he blamed the ‘western ruling elite’ for creating the economic hardships impacting people in Europe and the United States.

  Last year, the controversial strongman blasted the west as “completely insane” for allowing children to be taught there is no biological sex, saying the woke crusade against traditional gender roles was “subverting human nature.”

  *  *  *

  Brand new merch now available! Get it at https://www.pjwshop.com/

  In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch. I need you to sign up for my free newsletter here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown. Get early access, exclusive content and behinds the scenes stuff by following me on Locals.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/20/2022 – 23:00

• Macau To Ease Lockdown Saturday If Virus Conditions Allow
  Macau To Ease Lockdown Saturday If Virus Conditions Allow

  The world’s largest gambling hub, Macau, will reopen businesses as soon as this weekend “if the current pandemic situation remains stable or improves,” reported Macau Business. 

  Macau authorities revealed lockdowns would ease on July 23 and end on July 30, with essential and non-essential businesses allowed to resume limited operations. All casinos and non-essential businesses were shuttered on July 11 after the autonomous region on the south coast of China reported a flare-up in COVID-19 infections. 

  “The reduction in daily reported cases allowed for the advancement of a new consolidation period and the relaxation of some restrictions. We hope we can quickly regain normal life,” Secretary for Social Affairs and Culture Elsie Ao Ieong U said in a press conference on Wednesday.

  

  There was no mention of when casinos would reopen via the Macau Business report. However, sources with direct knowledge of reopening plans told Reuters that casinos “will reopen on Saturday.” 

  Macau adopted China’s disastrous COVID Zero strategy of lockdowns and mass testing — one way to crush the economy. The quick, partial reopening appears to be a move by the local government to protect the casino industry since many jobs in the city are directly or indirectly dependent on gaming resorts. 

  The government still recommends that residents stay home and avoid crowded areas for “necessary reasons,” such as work or grocery shopping when restrictions ease Saturday. 

  News the gambling hub will reopen sent shares of Macau casino stocks listed in the US higher premarket. Wynn Resorts climbed 2.5%, and Las Vegas Sands rose nearly 2%. 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/20/2022 – 22:40

• ECB Preview: First Rate Hike In 11 Years, And Another Major Policy Mistake
  ECB Preview: First Rate Hike In 11 Years, And Another Major Policy Mistake

  Submitted by Newsquawk

  Summary:

  • ECB policy announcement due Thursday 21st July; rate decision at 13:15BST/08:15EDT, press conference from 13:45BST/08:45EDT
  • The ECB is set to finally pull the trigger on rates; discussion will be over 25bps or 50bps
  • Policymakers are expected to unveil details of the anti-fragmentation tool

  OVERVIEW: After standing pat on rates in June, the ECB is finally set to pull the trigger and commence its rate-hiking cycle for the first time since June 2011 (when it sparked a sovereign debt crisis and cut rates three months later). This particular rate hike will be an even bigger policy error as it comes just as Europe’s economy slams the breaks into a big recession and ahead of what will be a freezing winter.

  Up until this week, analysts had been near unanimous in their view that the hike would be by 25bps given the explicit nature of the June statement. However, recent reporting has suggested that policymakers will now discuss the possibility of a 50bps move. Accordingly, markets now assign a 60% chance to such a move vs. around 33% at the start of the week. If policymakers opt for a 25bps move this time around, the statement will likely reaffirm the pledge to raise rates by a larger increment in September, depending on the medium-term inflation outlook.

  The July meeting will also likely see the Governing Council present details of its new anti-fragmentation tool – Transmission Protection Mechanism (TPM). It remains to be seen how much in the way of details the ECB will provide on its new tool as policymakers might prefer to use a “whatever it takes” approach rather than tempt bond-sellers with a specific number. Furthermore, the issue of conditionality will also be key when assessing the efficacy of such a tool, particularly in lieu of recent events in Italy whereby domestic politics has seen the IT/GE spread widen; something which Northern nations will likely impress is not as a result of ECB monetary policy.

  PRIOR MEETING: As expected, the ECB opted to stand pat on rates whilst announcing its intention to tighten by 25bps at the July meeting. Beyond July, policymakers stated they will consider larger increments if the medium-term inflation outlook persists or deteriorates. On the balance sheet, as expected, the Governing Council announced its decision to end net asset purchases under the APP as of July 1st. Note, the policy statement offered no fresh guidance on how it could deal with the issue of market fragmentation as it commences its rate hiking cycle. The 2022 inflation outlook was upgraded to 6.8% from 5.1%, with 2024 inflation seen above target at 2.1% vs. prev. view of 1.9%. At the accompanying press conference, President Lagarde was pressed further on how the Bank intends to deal with fragmentation, to which she noted that it can utilise existing tools, such as reinvestments from PEPP and, if necessary, deploy new instruments. Later in the press conference, Lagarde noted that there is no specific level of yield spreads that would be a trigger for an anti-fragmentation policy. From a more medium-term perspective, the President was questioned about where the Governing Council judges the neutral rate to be, however, she remarked that this issue was deliberately not discussed.

  RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS: June’s Eurozone inflation metrics saw headline Y/Y CPI rise to 8.6% from 8.1%, whilst the core (ex-food and energy) reading ticked higher to 4.6% from 4.4%. In terms of market-based expectations, the Eurozone 5y5y inflation rate has fallen to around 2.09% vs. 2.26% seen at the prior meeting. On the growth front, Q2 GDP metrics will not be released until 29th July. However, in terms of timelier survey data from S&P Global, June’s PMI figures saw the EZ-wide composite metric slip to 52 from 54.8 with the report noting that the data suggests “that risks have increasingly tilted towards the economy slipping into a downturn at the same time that inflationary pressures moderate, but remain elevated”. On the employment front, the unemployment rate continues to decline with the May print easing to 6.6% from 6.7%. Also of note for the Eurozone economy has been the performance of the EUR with EUR/USD falling from a 1.13 handle at the start of the year to just below parity (briefly) last week; a decline of roughly 12.5% peak-to-trough. From a broader perspective, the ECB’s nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) has fallen around 3.9%.

  RECENT COMMUNICATIONS: Since the prior meeting, President Lagarde said she expects the ECB to raise the key ECB interest rates again in September after a 25bp hike in July, adding that the calibration of the September hike will depend on the updated medium-term inflation outlook. On fragmentation, Reuters sources suggested that the President told EZ Finance Ministers that the goal of anti-fragmentation is not to close spreads. but to normalise spreads. In terms of the hawk-dove divide at the Bank, Germany’s Nagel warned the ECB against lowering borrowing costs for the Eurozone’s southern members, stating that the focus should be on fighting off inflation, which may require more rate hikes than now projected. Nagel is of the view that the anti-fragmentation tool should only be activated in exceptional circumstances with narrowly defined conditions and duration. Latvia’s Kazaks has suggested that a 25bps hike in July and 50bps in September is the base case, but it is worth looking at 50bps in July. At the other end of the spectrum, Italy’s Panetta has continued to stress that normalisation should be gradual, adding that the surge in inflation does not reflect excess demand in the Eurozone. Furthermore, Panetta notes that the anti-fragmentation tool is needed for  the ECB to hit its mandate. Elsewhere, Greece’s Stournaras has stated that he sees no signs of second-round effects in the Eurozone. On the FX rate, France’s Villeroy has stated that the ECB watches the EUR closely as it is important for prices, adding that it is not the EUR that is weak, but the USD that is strong. These comments (13th July) were later followed up by a statement from an ECB spokesperson noting that “we are always attentive to the impact of the FX rate on inflation, with our mandate for price stability. ECB does not target a particular exchange rate”.

  RATES: Analysts surveyed by Reuters (8th-15th July) look for the ECB to hike the deposit, main refi and marginal lending rates by 25bps to -0.25%, 0.25% and 0.5% respectively. In terms of the breakdown of analyst views for the deposit rate, all 63 analysts expect the Bank to move on rates with 62/63 looking for a 25bps hike and just one looking for a larger hike of 50bps. This view appeared to be relatively well cemented given how explicit ECB comms had been over the possibility of a 25bps move for the upcoming meeting. However, source reporting by Reuters and Bloomberg has revealed that policymakers are now set to debate the possibility of a 25bps or 50bps hike at the upcoming meeting. In terms of market pricing, at the start of the week 33bps of tightening was factored in, which implied that a 25bps hike was fully priced with a 32% chance of a 50bps hike. Following the aforementioned reporting, this has now risen to a 60% chance. Reporting has suggested that the Governing Council could be granted cover to shift away from its prior guidance given comments by President Lagarde on June 28th that there are “clearly conditions in which  gradualism would not be appropriate”. That said, it remains to be seen whether or not there is sufficient support for a 50bps move on the Governing Council. Some desks suggest that a 50bps move would make sense given that the Bank is already clearly behind other major central banks in their effort to tame inflation and a 25bps hike seems relatively minor compared to the magnitude of some of the ECB’s peers. ING believes there is a small chance of a 50bps move this week given that some members already wanted to commence the hiking cycle in June. Furthermore, by the time of the September meeting, policymakers could be “looking a recession into the eyes”, which would be an unconventional time to increase the pace of hikes. Also, the recent weakening of the EUR could bolster the case for a 50bps move, albeit Rabobank is of the view that it is doubtful whether such a move would provide much in the way of support for the EUR at this current juncture. Rabobank also makes the point that if the ECB does unveil its ‘Transmission Protection Mechanism’ this month, it could move by 50bps to get the hawks on board. However, Rabo believes that the ECB would prefer to wait and see how its new instrument is received by markets before moving by larger increments. Looking beyond the upcoming meeting, a 50bps hike is fully priced in for September with the year-end deposit rate seen rising to 1% which would imply 75bps of tightening beyond September.

  BALANCE SHEET: After offering no fresh guidance at the June meeting on how it could deal with the issue of market fragmentation as it commences its rate hiking cycle, the ECB was forced to carry out an ad-hoc meeting to address the matter. At which, policymakers decided to flexibly reinvest redemptions from PEPP whilst mandating staff to accelerate the completion of an anti-fragmentation tool. In the aftermath of the meeting, reporting via Reuters suggested that the bond scheme would come with loose conditions and aimed at bringing yield spreads back into line with fundamentals. It was also later reported that officials were unsure whether or not the size or duration of such a bond-buying scheme would be announced. One argument for announcing the size would be that it could help show the ECB’s commitment to avoiding fragmentation, whilst not being seen as giving governments a blank cheque. That said, if the number underwhelmed, it could place pressure on bond markets. Note, any purchases under such a tool would likely be sterilised whereby the scheme could be paired with auctions aimed at draining cash from the banking system. On July 7th it was reported that the new tool would be named the Transmission Protection Mechanism (TPM), however, a lot of
  work was still yet to be done and it was uncertain if it would arrive in time for July. More recently (19th July) reporting from Reuters has suggested that conditionality for the tool could “include the targets set by the Commission for securing money from the European Union Recovery and Resilience Facility as well as the Stability and Growth Pact”, whilst some wanted involvement from the ESM, but this option was now likely discarded. Note, it remains to be seen whether or not the tool will be announced at the upcoming meeting with President Lagarde reportedly “redoubling efforts to get a deal done”. Should the tool be unveiled at the upcoming meeting, analysts at ING highlight that the main issues would be “how to define a ‘neutral’ or ‘economically justified’ spread, the size of such a tool and the degree of conditionality”.  However, a mere “whatever it takes” pledge could present optics that “such a commitment when starting a rate hiking cycle is like hitting the brakes and the accelerator simultaneously“. From a rates perspective, it is likely that hawks would try and negotiate a more aggressive hiking cycle if the conditionality of the TPM is seen to be generous to southern nations. On which, investors will be mindful of the recent political turmoil in Italy, which, at the time of writing could see current PM Draghi leave government and possibly trigger early elections. The prospect of such an outcome has seen the IT/GE 10yr spread widen to in excess of 230bps from sub-200bps levels at the beginning of the month. Given the clear impact of domestic politics on the spread in this instance, there is likely to be increasing tensions between southern and northern nations on the conditionality and implementation of the tool than there otherwise would have been. If the conditionality is perceived to be too strict as a result, it may fail to act as a deterrent for spread-widening.

  Finally, in terms of the market reaction, ING writes markets – by a small majority – exect policymakers in Frankfurt to deliver the previously announced 25bp rate hike on Thursday and leave the door open for a 50bp increase in September (although it wouldn’t be a shock if the ECB goes all the way with 50). The overnight index swaps market is pricing in 30bp for this week and nearly 200bp of tightening by June 2023. The Bank’s message may fall slightly below market expectations, and trigger some dovish re-pricing across the EUR curve.

  

  The deployment of the anti-fragmentation tool will be all the more interesting as the recent Italian political crisis has increased the chances of a sharp re-widening of Italian sovereign spreads. Here, the details about the conditionality to access the anti-spread tool will be key and may drive part of the market’s reaction.

  ING identifies four different scenarios (with the second being its base case) and include its estimated impact on EUR/USD and German 10Y yields.

  

  The bank notes that while there is no doubt that the ECB is unhappy with the recent weakness of the euro – not only against the dollar, but on a trade-weighted basis – recent hawkish surprises by the ECB have, however, failed to offer sustained support to the euro, and a larger-than-expected move (a 50bp rate hike) or more hawkish-than-expected forward-looking language may fail to generate enough lift to the euro, a view shared by JPMorgan (which writes that gas supply concerns will undercut the euro, even if the ECB hikes interest rates by 50 basis points Thursday, as developments on Nord Stream 1 are likely to be “the single most important issue for FX markets this week” and A 50bp ECB hike wouldn’t support the common currency if it’s followed by curtailed gas supplies).

  This is especially due to the mounting downside risks in the eurozone, mostly related to the threat of a gas supply crunch in the coming months (or during winter) and more recently about Italy falling back into political uncertainty.

   

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/20/2022 – 22:20

• "Its Critical": Police Departments Across US Struggling With Staffing Shortages
  “Its Critical”: Police Departments Across US Struggling With Staffing Shortages

  After years of supporting BLM activists who succeeded in defunding police departments in major American cities, CNN is now reporting that there are ‘critical staffing shortages’ in precincts across the country.

  

  Police departments from Atlanta to Kansas City to Portland are coping with critical staffing shortages and struggling to fill their ranks from patrol officers to 911 operators, as the warm weather historically portends bursts of violence in many parts of the United States. -CNN

  “The people (who) work here are working long hours, extra overtime to cover other shifts,” said Kansas City Police Interim Chief Joseph Maybin. “But we have to have someone answering the call. We have to have someone dispatching otherwise we can’t get officers to people. It’s critical.”

  

  “We’re stretched thin,” Maybin added – while dealing with a shortage of around 100 crucial non-law enforcement positions such as 911 dispatchers, mechanics and analysts, as well as more than 200 officers. “But the one thing that we can’t take away from is … emergency response.”

  Meanwhile, Dallas is down around 550 officers, Portland needs 100 more, and Seattle’s shortage of officers has led to the reassignment of detectives from sexual assaults to fill gaps in other areas.

  On Monday, Chicago Police Superintendent David Brown asked for the city’s “continued support and prayers” after the department’s third suicide of an officer in the last month.

   

  Brown also addressed concerns over the department’s canceling of days off during the summer, noting that “historically the most violent weekends of the year” in the city have been Memorial Day, Father’s Day, July Fourth and Labor Day weekends. -CNN

  As Michael Shellenberger wrote last Novermber; In response to anti-police protests, many officers quit, resulting in shortages and a spike in avoidable deaths, from homicides to heart attacks, of innocents…

  Before a vaccine mandate took 100 police officers off the street in mid-October, the Seattle police department was short at least 400 police officers to be at the minimum considered necessary to protect public safety. Why is that?

  The overwhelming and unavoidable reason is anti-police protests by Black Lives Matter activists. This happened nationwide, but was worse in Seattle, where Seattle Mayor Jenny Durkan and progressive members of the Seattle City Council allowed anarchists to briefly take over the downtown Capitol Hill neighborhood in the summer of 2020. Durkan did so to show solidarity with anti-police protests in the wake of the killing of George Floyd by a police officer in Minneapolis.

  The anti-police protests in Seattle were surprising because in 2018 the City Council had hired a black woman, Carmen Best, for the first time to serve as the city’s police chief. Best opened up for the first time about what happened last summer in an interview with me for my book, “San Fransicko,” earlier this year. Best is also one of the candidates NYC’s Mayor-Elect Eric Adams is considering for NYPD Commissioner.

  “I refuse to work for this socialist City Council and their political agenda,” said one officer. “It ultimately will destroy the fabric of this once fine city.” Another said the city’s progressive City Council “will be the downfall of the city of Seattle.” 

  *  *  *

  To entice more people to join the force, police departments have started offering bonuses to new officers, as well as ‘educational stipends’ and other incentives to current members.

  

  “I’m looking for 250 officers and we’re finding them. People are answering the call,” said Atlanta Mayor Andre Dickens. “They’re saying they want to serve their city.”

  A June 2021 national survey found a 45% increase in retirements and an 18% jump in resignations over the previous year. And with the average new officer requiring an 8-month training program before they can patrol the streets alone, it will take years to fill the officer shortfall across the country.

  The reasons for the recruitment and retention crisis are attributable to “multiple social, political, and economic forces,” including generational differences, negative perceptions of policing and the long hiring process of many agencies, according to a September 2019 survey by the International Association of Chiefs of Police.

   

  additionally, low pay and the so-called great resignation — in which workers voluntarily left their jobs in unprecedented numbers after the pandemic — hit policing as it did other professions. -CNN

  “Things will not be perfect tomorrow,” said Kansas City Mayor Quinton Lucas. “We will not have enough officers tomorrow. What we can let people know … (is that) we’re responding to 911 calls for service. We’re continuing to try to prioritize the best ways that we can help prevent crime throughout our city. But more than anything, that we need to all try to make sure we’re helping other folks know that policing is a good path.”

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/20/2022 – 22:00

• NBA Champion Says He Regrets Getting COVID-19 Vaccine
  NBA Champion Says He Regrets Getting COVID-19 Vaccine

  Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Golden State Warriors forward and NBA Champion Andrew Wiggins suggested he regrets getting the COVID-19 vaccine during the 2021–2022 season, even though he won a championship.

  “I still wish I didn’t get it (the vaccinate), to be honest with you,” Wiggins, 27, told FanSided this week.

  

  Wiggins said that the only way he would be able to play last season is if he got the shot due to San Francisco’s COVID-19 rules around vaccines. Throughout the season, he refused to get the shot and claimed a religious exemption before he was ultimately denied and had to receive the vaccine in October in order to play.

  “I did it,” he said, referring to getting the shot. “And I was an All-Star this year and champion, so that was the good part, just not missing out on the year, the best year of my career,” Wiggins added, but he stated that he was forced to get the shot against his will.

  “But for my body, I just don’t like putting all that stuff in my body, so I didn’t like that. … It wasn’t my choice. I didn’t like that it was either get this or don’t play,” Wiggins said.

  Wiggins previously said he is the only member of his family that received the COVID-19 vaccine, saying that “it’s not really something we believe in.”

  Other Players

  Brooklyn Nets guard Kyrie Irving, because he wouldn’t take the vaccine, was denied the ability to play for his team during home games throughout much of the season. Several months ago, New York City Mayor Eric Adams rolled back the city’s vaccination requirement for athletes, allowing him to play.

  

  “I can really say that I stood firm on what I believed in, what I wanted to do with my body,” Irving told ESPN earlier this year. “I think that should be not just an American right, I think that should be a human right.”

  Irving added that “I was called so many different names. … It was part of a struggle of mine to look at the season, a game that I love—my job.”

  “I can’t even keep calling it a game, it’s my job—[for] that to be stripped away based on a mandate or something that was in place,” he said.

  

  The Orlando Magic’s Jonathan Isaac, meanwhile, similarly declined the vaccine, remarking that “it felt forced.”

  “Viewing it, it seemed forced,” Isaac said during an interview. “It seemed that there was so much pressure in doing it. I don’t see the wisdom in putting something into my body that’s not going to stop me from getting the virus or transmitting it. That is why I decided to be the only player on my team to not get vaccinated.”

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/20/2022 – 21:40

• Halliburton Warns Frack Growth "Almost Impossible" This Year
  Halliburton Warns Frack Growth “Almost Impossible” This Year

  Fracking, or hydraulic fracturing, is an oil extraction technique that involves high-pressure water blended with sand and chemicals, forced into underground rocks known as shale to capture oil and gas. The process was revolutionized by horizontal drilling in the 1980s and 2000s, transforming America into the world’s largest oil producer overnight. 

  American shale drillers have shown how quickly they can boost oil production over the years. But after several years of divestment and decarbonization, the days of fracking roaring back to life are over. 

  Halliburton Co.’s CEO Jeff Miller confirmed this to analysts during a conference call Tuesday. He said the oilfield equipment market is so tight that oil explorers are already discussing 2023 projects. 

  Miller said oil companies don’t have enough fracking equipment for newly leased wells this year. He said diesel-powered and electric equipment are in short supply, “making it almost impossible to add incremental capacity this year.” 

  

  This development is another setback for the Biden administration’s efforts to increase US oil production to ease the worst inflation in forty years ahead of the midterm elections in November. 

  A similar message was conveyed by Exxon Mobil, whose CEO said that global oil markets might remain tight for another three to five years primarily because of a lack of investment since the pandemic began.

  Chief executive Darren Woods said it’ll take time for oil firms to “catch up” on the investments needed to ensure enough supply.

  Back to the shale patch, where even if exploration companies were to obtain fracking equipment for drilling new or existing wells, the frack sand used to blast through shale rocks is in short supply across Texas.

  Russell Hardy, the CEO of the world’s largest independent oil merchant, Vitol, also believes oil prices will remain high because the market can’t see where additional supply is coming from to balance demand. 

  Meanwhile, Brent oil prices rose to $106 on Tuesday after President Biden returned from Saudi Arabia without an agreement on increasing output from OPEC+. 

  “The message is that it is OPEC+ that makes the oil supply decision, and the cartel isn’t remotely interested in what Biden is trying to achieve,” said Naeem Aslam, the chief market analyst at Avatrade.

  Neither US shale nor OPEC+ appears to be increasing output in the immediate future for their own respective reasons, indicating tight crude supplies will keep energy prices elevated and inflation high. 

  All the Biden administration can hope for now is a recession to curb consumer demand to rebalance markets. 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/20/2022 – 21:20

• George Soros Gave $1 Million To Help Beto O'Rourke Unseat Texas Gov. Greg Abbott
  George Soros Gave $1 Million To Help Beto O’Rourke Unseat Texas Gov. Greg Abbott

  Authored by Caden Pearson via The Epoch Times,

  Left-wing Democrat mega donor George Soros has donated $1 million to help Beto O’Rourke’s efforts to unseat Republican Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, filings show.

  

  Records filed with Texas Ethics Commission published Tuesday show the billionaire donated the sum to the Beto for Texas political action committee in June, according to The Hill. O’Rourke’s campaign confirmed the donation to the outlet.

  O’Rourke has benefited from laws in Texas that allow uncapped campaign donations. According to filings, the Democratic gubernatorial nominee has received a number of donations over six or seven figures.

  Soros, 91, frequently supports progressive causes. He has spent at least $40 million in support of liberal prosecutor candidates between 2014 and 2021, according to a report published by Virginia-based Law Enforcement Legal Defense Fund.

  Additionally, the progressive investor gave more than $125 million to a Democrat-aligned super PAC to boost Democrat groups and candidates ahead of the 2022 midterm elections.

  

  Gov. Greg Abbott (R-Texas) displays the “Beto Truth Response Unit” in Houston, June 16, 2022. The ambulance will follow his Democratic opponent on the campaign trail. (Darlene McCormick Sanchez/The Epoch Times)

  Soros handed over his donation to Democracy PAC, which he set up in 2019. Democracy PAC is his main political action committee to support Democrats in what was a “long-term investment” beyond the 2022 elections.

  He has also spent tens of millions of dollars funding media properties, including journalism schools and industry organizations, according to a report by the Media Research Center.

  Matt Palumbo, author of “The Man Behind the Curtain: Inside the Secret Network of George Soros,” said the billionaire funds many left-wing groups, media companies, and political candidates through his Open Society Foundation.

  Palumbo, during an interview for EpochTV’s “Facts Matter” program, also said Soros uses his influence to control what is written about him.

  Soros’s foundation claims to promote democracy and individualism, but in reality it supports a more radical agenda, said Palumbo.

  Abbott Leads O’Rourke

  According to a report by the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs, Abbott leads O’Rourke by 5 percent among likely voters (pdf).

  The report states that Abbott leads at 49 percent to O’Rourke’s 44 percent, with 5 percent undecided and 2 percent intending to vote for Libertarian Mark Tippetts.

  “More than nine out of 10 Abbott (95 percent) and O’Rourke (92 percent) voters are certain about their vote choice, while 5 percent and 8 percent indicate they might change their mind between now and November,” the report states.

  

  Gov. Greg Abbott speaks during a press conference about the mass shooting at Uvalde High School in Uvalde, Texas, on May 27, 2022.(Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)

  “Abbott holds a 27 percent (60 percent to 33 percent) lead over O’Rourke among white voters while O’Rourke holds a 72 percent (80 percent to 8 percent) lead over Abbott among Black voters, and a 9 percent (51 percent to 42 percent) lead among Latino voters.”

  Women prefer O’Rourke (6 percent) while Abbott outpaces O’Rourke with support of men (18 percent), according to the report.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/20/2022 – 21:00

• US Destroyer Enters China-Claimed Waters For 3rd Time In A Week Ahead Of Pelosi Taiwan Trip
  US Destroyer Enters China-Claimed Waters For 3rd Time In A Week Ahead Of Pelosi Taiwan Trip

  The USS Benfold has traversed China-claimed waters for the third time in a week, passing through the Taiwan Strait on Tuesday after China complained about US Navy “illegal” maneuvers near islands under its control in the South China Sea.

  Beijing again blasted it as a serious “provocation” demonstrating that the US is a “destroyer of peace and stability” – in repetition of prior condemnations. It follows a more rare July 13 incident wherein the US destroyer entered waters off the Chinese military occupied Paracel Islands, and then last Saturday a sail-by of the Spratly Islands.

  

  The US Navy’s 7th Fleet again affirmed “commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific,” and that the US destroyer has challenged China’s “excessive maritime claims”. 

  A Navy spokesman, Lt. Nicholas Lingo Benfold, said the transit occurred “through a corridor in the strait that is beyond the territorial sea of any coastal state.”

  China in turn, said its Eastern Theater Command closely monitored the ship’s movement, citing “risks” to Chinese national security:

  “The frequent provocations and showing-off by the US fully demonstrate that the US is the destroyer of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and the creator of security risks in the Taiwan Strait,” said Col. Shi Yi, spokesman for the People’s Liberation Army’s Eastern Theater Command.

  “The theater troops maintain high alert at all times and will resolutely defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

  The Navy’s interpretation is that it never violated the 12 nautical miles extending from China’s coastline; however, Beijing has over the last month begun openly questioning to US officials that the “international waters” designation doesn’t apply to the strait (given Chinese claims over the island of Taiwan).

  “Chinese officials have made such remarks repeatedly in meetings with US counterparts in recent months,” Bloomberg reported in June. The international legal status of the passageway wasn’t previously center of debate as it is now:

  While China regularly protests US military moves in the Taiwan Strait, the legal status of the waters previously wasn’t a regular talking point in meetings with American officials.

  Looming large in the background of all this is House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s reported upcoming trip to Taiwan. Though not “official” yet, Politico and others are citing sources who say the trip will happen in August, after in April she canceled last minute, reportedly over a Covid diagnosis.

  Chinese state pundits are saying this alone could be the spark that ignites war…

  I definitely don’t believe that the Taiwanese military would dare to fire on the mainland’s military aircraft, because otherwise, the PLA would return fire ferociously. Washington and the Taiwan authorities will bear the responsibility of provoking a war in the Taiwan Straits. https://t.co/V1t2hETaMd

  — Hu Xijin 胡锡进 (@HuXijin_GT) July 20, 2022

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  Beijing is further demanding that the Biden administration cancel a proposed 5th arms package for Taiwan, announced worth an estimated $108 million, saying it violates the One China principle and risks dangerous escalation.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/20/2022 – 20:40

• Oath Keepers Seek Trial Delay Due To "Slurs" And "Outrageous Claims" From House Jan 6 Committee
  Oath Keepers Seek Trial Delay Due To “Slurs” And “Outrageous Claims” From House Jan 6 Committee

  Authored by Joseph Hanneman via The Epoch Times,

  A group of Oath Keepers defendants has renewed a call for a change of venue or a trial delay due to “undeniable prejudice” from the negative publicity generated by the House January 6 Select Committee.

  

  A motion (pdf) filed in U.S. District Court ripped the work of the Jan. 6 Select Committee as “highly inflammatory and prejudicial” for peddling “outrageous claims” about the Oath Keepers and defendants in the Jan. 6 prosecution.

  “The Rhodes defendants renew their request for a change of venue in this matter or, in the alternative, to continue the current trial date until 2023 based upon the undeniable prejudice that exists in this District’s jury pool following recent congressional hearings,” the motion reads, referring to Oath Keepers founder Elmer Stewart Rhodes III.

  District Judge Amit Mehta previously denied an Oath Keepers motion to change the trial venue from Washington D.C. to Virginia.

  “These hearings—particularly the most recent one—have caused irreparable harm to the ability of the Rhodes defendants to obtain a fair trial in the District,” the motion said.

  A televised Select Committee hearing on July 12 focused heavily on the Oath Keepers and made a range of accusations against the group. This included assertions not made in any charging documents from the criminal case.

  Deny ‘Outrageous Claims’

  The motion was particularly critical of Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Maryland), who said the Oath Keepers are “extremists who promote a wide range of conspiracy theories and sought to act as a private paramilitary force for Donald Trump.”

  

  Oath Keepers founder Elmer Stewart Rhodes III previously said the Jan. 6 Select Committee is not looking for truth. (Epoch TV)

  In his opening statement at the hearing, Raskin contended that the events of Jan. 6, 2021, were perpetrated by “the dangerous extremists in the Oath Keepers, the Proud Boys and other far-right racist and white nationalist groups spoiling for a fight.”

  “To be clear, the Rhodes defendants dispute Raskin’s outrageous claims,” the motion said.

  “They dispute that they are ‘racists,’ ‘white supremacists,’ or ‘domestic extremists.’ They dispute that they had an alliance with the Proud Boys to attack the Capitol. They dispute that there was a plan to attack the Capitol. They dispute that there was an ‘insurrection’ on J6.”

  A superseding indictment filed on June 22 in Washington D.C. federal court accuses Rhodes and eight others of a variety of January 6-related crimes, including seditious conspiracy, conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding, civil disorder, and destruction of government property. The first group of Oath Keepers is scheduled for trial on Sept. 26.

  Defendants include Rhodes, Kelly Meggs, Kenneth Harrelson, Jessica Watkins, Roberto Minuta, Joseph Hackett, David Moerschel, Thomas Caldwell, and Edward Vallejo. They have all pleaded not guilty to the charges.

  ‘False and Incendiary’ Testimony

  The motion disputed “false and incendiary” testimony given at the July 12 hearing by Jason Van Tatenhove, a one-time spokesman for the Oath Keepers.

  Van Tatenhove claimed the Oath Keepers are a “violent militia” and a “very dangerous organization,” the motion said. Van Tatenhove claimed former President Donald Trump was “communicating, whether directly or indirectly” with Rhodes. The motion said Van Tatenhove has had no contact with Rhodes for five years.

  “Van Tatenhove’s claim that the Oath Keepers intended to start a ‘bloody revolution’ on J6 is now seared into the minds of the District’s jury pool as fact,” said the motion, written by attorney David Fischer. “Additionally, a two-minute search of his Twitter account reveals that Van Tatenhove is a staunch left-wing activist tied to causes such as gun control, feminism, and climate change, and who regularly does a ‘counter-culture’ podcast.”

  

  Former Oath Keepers member Jason Van Tatenhoven testifies before the Jan. 6 Select Committee on July 12, 2022. (Select Committee/YouTube)

  Van Tatenhove has admitted he joined the Oath Keepers so he could write a book about the organization, the motion said. He is selling an audiobook on the Oath Keepers, the document said.

  “Yet the D.C. jury pool knows none of this discrediting information, or even that Van Tatenhove has publicly claimed to have had multiple encounters with UFOs,” the motion read.

  The House committee’s meetings are not truly hearings, the motion said, because witnesses are not subjected to cross-examination and evidence includes “carefully edited excerpts” from videos and depositions.

  “The Committee’s witnesses are asked leading questions or questions to which the answer is clearly already known,” the motion said, “however, the Committee does not subject the witnesses to cross-examination nor does it even attempt to provide mitigation, context, or other information that might produce a neutralized or mitigated version.”

  ‘Likely Inadmissable’

  Oath Keepers defense attorneys also took aim at federal prosecutors for publicly filing a motion containing “incendiary, dubious spin” on “likely inadmissible evidence.”

  In a motion filed July 8, prosecutors said they will offer evidence that Oath Keepers member Jeremy Brown brought explosives to the area on January 6. Brown is not part of the Rhodes criminal case. Brown has said he was charged with January 6 crimes because he refused an FBI attempt to recruit him as an informant.

  Prosecutors also alleged that defendant Caldwell kept a “death list” of Georgia election officials. The motion said that the document “is not a ‘list’ but, rather, a doodle pad where the words ‘death list’ are written separate and apart from, and in different ink than, the names of Georgia election workers.”

  The January 6 Select Committee said it plans to release more than 1,000 transcripts of interviews and depositions from its investigation. “While a portion of the transcripts to be released by the committee will have no relevance to the Rhodes defendants, defense counsel predict that many transcripts will be highly relevant and potentially exculpatory in nature,” the motion said.

  The motion cited a delay granted to a group of Proud Boys defendants in June because of potential adverse effects from the Select Committee’s hearings. That trial was moved to December.

  “…Tuesday’s hearing generated a mountain of prejudicial press coverage that has served to prejudice further an already heavily biased jury pool,” the filing said. “Moreover, the committee will be holding an additional hearing and intends to issue a detailed report in September which, again, will thrust J6 and the prejudicial assertions about the Oath Keepers back into the spotlight, just before a jury is to be picked.”

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/20/2022 – 20:20

• 200 Million Americans Facing Brutal Heat Raises Alarm Over Power Grid Stability
  200 Million Americans Facing Brutal Heat Raises Alarm Over Power Grid Stability

  According to The Weather Channel, more than 200 million Americans will experience temperatures over 90 degrees Fahrenheit through the end of the week. 

  

  At least 105 million people in 28 states across the Central and Northeast US are under heat advisories or warnings.

  “Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are in effect this morning throughout 28 states, stretching from California to New Hampshire. High temperatures into the 90s and 100s will increase the risk of heat related illnesses,” the National Weather Service said. 

  

  Metro areas like Dallas, Oklahoma City, and Tulsa could be much hotter than the rest of the country. The three could record temperatures above 110 degrees Fahrenheit. 

  “Another day of exceptional heat lies ahead with triple-digit highs forecast for all of North and Central Texas,” NWS in Fort Worth wrote in a weather note. 

  So what’s behind the scorching hot temperatures? We told readers two weeks ago that a strong heat dome was stuck over Central US, baking tens of millions of people in above-normal to new record high temperatures. Now the heat dome is broadening, headed to the Mid-Atlantic and North East. 

  The Washington–Baltimore metropolitan area to New York could see the hottest weather all summer this week. 

  

  With two-thirds of the country facing extreme heat, cooling demand is surging, which could strain power grids across the country. Texas has asked customers to restrict power usage several times, and factories have dialed back production to conserve power. 

  Natural gas futures jumped as high as 10% to $8/mmbtu on Nymex as millions of households and businesses turned down their thermostats, fueling demand for power-plant fuel.

  

  Before summer, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, a regulatory body that manages grid stability, released an alarming report about increasing heatwaves and risks of rolling blackouts across the country. 

  Will America’s power grids survive this brutal summer? 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/20/2022 – 20:00

• ESG Funds Are Quietly Buying Oil Stocks
  ESG Funds Are Quietly Buying Oil Stocks

  By Tim Quinson, Bloomberg ESG reporter and analyst

  Managers of environmental, social and governance funds are starting to shift a larger portion of their assets to oil and gas producers, especially in Europe.

  European-based ESG equity funds have been increasing their investments in energy companies, including Shell Plc, Repsol SA, Aker BP ASA and Neste Oyj, according to analysts at Bank of America Corp. About 6% of the funds invested in Shell this year, compared with none in 2021.

  The allocations are driven by the outperformance of fossil-fuel stocks — the S&P 500 Energy Index is up 30% this year — along with optimism that the world’s biggest oil and gas companies will spend more to make the transition to cleaner energy.

  Shell, TotalEnergies SE and Equinor ASA are among the companies that have evaluated the suitability of European utilities for takeovers, according to people familiar with the matter. Potential targets include some of the region’s largest wind and solar producers, such as Iberdrola SA, Orsted A/S and SSE Renewables Ltd.

  

  The Robeco QI Emerging Conservative Equities fund, which adheres to Article 8 of the EU’s Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation, holds shares of carbon-intensive companies China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. (Sinopec) and PetroChina Co.

  Managers of the $2.2 billion fund justify those holdings based on their three-year plan to actively encourage Sinopec and PetroChina to boost their sustainability performance. If that engagement works, Robeco says it will raise its equity position in each of the companies. If not, it probably will divest.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/20/2022 – 19:40

• First Responders At Fatal PA Tesla Wreck Disassemble Vehicle Before Moving It "To Avoid Electrocution"
  First Responders At Fatal PA Tesla Wreck Disassemble Vehicle Before Moving It “To Avoid Electrocution”

  Yet another day, yet another Tesla wreck – the latest comes from Pine Township, PA, north of the Pittsburgh suburbs. 

  

  A local doctor was killed on the 300 block of Wexford Bayne Road in the township last weekend after the Tesla they were driving “hit a mailbox, went airborne and then landed, overturning into a creek in nearby woods,” according to 11 News. 

  The doctor who was killed was a passenger at the time of the accident. 

  This @Tesla was in an overnight accident in Pine Township. The car was found in the Creek nearby. #WPXI pic.twitter.com/SO9gQTNTg8

  — Gigi (@wpxigigi) July 16, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Perhaps just as alarming as the crash were first responders’ reactions in dealing with the electric vehicle, which had been badly mangled due to the wreck.

  The report says it took two hours for a towing company to get the car out of the ditch and that crews had to disassemble the car before removing it, in order to avoid electrocution. 

  

  As of right now, speed is listed as a “contributing factor” in the crash, but no further details have become available. Local reporting from 11 News on the wreck can be viewed at the embedded video at this link. 

  We will update this story as developments occur…

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/20/2022 – 19:20

• Current Flu Season More Severe Than COVID: Australian State Premier
  Current Flu Season More Severe Than COVID: Australian State Premier

  Authored by Rebecca Zhu via The Epoch Times,

  New South Wales Premier Dominic Perrottet has called for a reduction in the seven-day isolation period adding that the winter influenza virus currently posed a bigger issue than COVID-19.

  “In many cases at the moment, the current strand of influenza is more severe than the current strands of COVID,” the premier told 2GB radio.

  He later added that the state was currently experiencing “one of the worst flu seasons we’ve ever had” and urged people to get a flu shot.

  

  Perrottet also advocated for reducing the mandatory isolation period after a person tests positive for COVID-19, noting that health advice states COVID will remain for at least a “couple of years.”

  “So in those circumstances, we need to look at isolation requirements in a way that puts downward still maintains downward pressure on our health system,” he said.

  The premier said considerations for other competing health issues, educational outcomes, and opportunities to go to work also need to be balanced as the country moves to the next phase of the pandemic.

  In response, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said it was “not the time” to for the changing of the COVID-19 isolation period.

  “Well, we had that discussion. And the advice that is there from the chief medical officer, Professor [Paul] Kelly, was that now is certainly not the time for that to be reconsidered,” Albanese told FiveAA radio.

  

  Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (L) and NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet meet with emergency response leaders at the NSW Rural Fire Service headquarters in Homebush Bay in Sydney, Australia, on July 6, 2022. (James Brickwood-Pool/Getty Images)

  Returned Pandemic Leave Payments

  The comments come after the prime minister capitulated to reinstate pandemic leave payments that originally ended on June 30.

  “I want to make sure that people aren’t left behind, that vulnerable people are looked after, and that no one is faced with the unenviable choice of not being able to isolate properly without losing an income and without being put in a situation that is very difficult,” Albanese told reporters on July 16.

  Treasurer Jim Chalmers defended the extension of the program after the federal government previously ruled it out due to budget pressures.

  He said the decision was made due to a change in health advice following a new wave of COVID-19 cases.

  The payment scheme will be funded in a 50-50 split between state and federal governments.

  There are also renewed calls for the return of mask mandates, however, the prime minister previously indicated that it would be up to the discretion of the states.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/20/2022 – 19:00

• Feds Eye Criminal Charges For Hunter Biden As Probe Reaches 'Critical Stage'
  Feds Eye Criminal Charges For Hunter Biden As Probe Reaches ‘Critical Stage’

  The Department of Justice is weighing possible charges against Hunter Biden, after investigations into his business dealings and false statements involving his purchase of a gun have reached a ‘critical juncture,’ CNN (!?) reports.

  

  Sources say that the probe has intensified in recent months ‘with discussions among Delaware-based prosecutors, investigators running the probe and officials at Justice Department headquarters.’

  While no final decision has been made, the possibility of dropping charges on Hunter would put a longstanding guideline to avoid bringing politically sensitive cases close to an election.

  Discussions recently have centered around possibly bringing charges that could include alleged tax violations and making a false statement in connection with Biden’s purchase of a firearm at a time he would have been prohibited from doing so because of his acknowledged struggles with drug addiction.

  …

  Adding to the pressure, Republicans in Congress have already announced that if they take over the House of Representatives after the midterm elections, they plan to launch new investigations and hold hearings to examine the conduct of Hunter Biden and others in the Biden family. -CNN

  The debate over whether to bring the case this close to midterms has revolved around the fact that Joe Biden isn’t on the ballot. 

  While the DOJ probe initially focused on Hunter Biden’s financial and business activities in foreign countries while his father was vice president, investigators had expanded the scope to include whether Hunter and associates violated money laundering, campaign finance, tax and foreign lobbying laws – and whether he broke federal firearm and other regulations, according to multiple sources.

  These matters have been narrowed down to tax and gun-related charges – which means the Biden family will likely be shielded from scrutiny over improper business dealings which leveraged Joe Biden’s position of power – and which Joe Biden provably lied about discussing with Hunter.

  So Hunter gets a pass on all this?

  In March, CBS News‘ Catherine Herridge reported that two associates of the younger Biden testified before a grand jury last fall about a shady, now-bankrupt Chinese energy company linked to the infamous “10 for the big guy” from Hunter’s emails.

  “Federal officials are looking at his foreign business dealings, including his ties to a Chinese energy company,” said “CBS Mornings” host Tony Dokoupil.

  “The investigation began as a tax inquiry years ago and has expanded into a federal probe involving the FBI and IRS,” Herridge added. “A source familiar with the investigation now tells CBS News, two men who worked with Hunter Biden when his father was Vice President were called to the grand jury last fall.”

  According to records reviewed by CBS along with congressional documents, the feds are looking at “multiple financial transactions involving an energy company called CEFC. Republicans accuse the business of being an arm of the Chinese government. In 2017, the year Joe Biden left the Vice Presidency, a $1 million retainer was signed with a Chinese energy company for Hunter Biden’s services as a lawyer.

  His client, a CEFC official, Patrick Ho, was later convicted on international bribery and money laundering charges on unrelated work in Africa.”

  The Hunter Biden investigation began as a tax inquiry years ago + expanded into a federal probe. Source familiar with the investigation now tells @cbsnews I-unit two men who worked w/Hunter Biden when his father VP were called to the grand jury last fall.pic.twitter.com/1LaXDiycWk

  — Catherine Herridge (@CBS_Herridge) March 31, 2022

  For those who’ve been keeping up with our reporting since October 2020 when the Hunter Biden laptop story broke (and was immediately suppressed by the media), CEFC was the company that the Bidens allegedly accepted a $5 million interest-free loan that enraged their business partner, Tony Bobulinski – who flipped on the Bidens following a Senate report which revealed the $5 million ‘loan.’

  According to the former Biden insider, he was introduced to Joe Biden by Hunter, and they had an hour-long meeting where they discussed the Biden’s business plans with the Chinese, with which he says Joe was “plainly familiar at least at a high level.”

  Text messages from Bobulinski also reveal an effort to conceal Joe Biden’s involvement in Hunter’s business dealings, while Tony has also confirmed that the “Big guy” described in a leaked email is none other than Joe Biden himself.

  

  This is maybe THE clip from this interview.

  Bobulinski to #Tucker: “I remember looking at Jim Biden in saying how are you guys getting away with this? Like, aren’t you concerned? And he looked at me and he laughed a little bit and said. ‘plausible deniability.'” pic.twitter.com/GMDL1JNZtB

  — Curtis Houck (@CurtisHouck) October 28, 2020

   “You can imagine my shock when reading the report yesterday put out by the Senate committee.  The fact that you and HB were lying to Rob, James and I while accepting $5 MM from Cefc is infuriating,” wrote Bobulinski to Jim Biden. (Via the Daily Caller‘s Chuck Ross):

  CEFC was paying Hunter $850,00 per year according to an email from Biden business associate James Gilliar to Bobulinksi – which is also the source of the “10 held by H for the big guy” email.

  Emails obtained by the New York Post show that Hunter “pursued lucrative deals involving China’s largest private energy company — including one that he said would be “interesting for me and my family.”” according to the report.

  

  You can read more on Hunter and the CEFC here. As an aside, but of course not coincidental we’re sure, the Clinton Foundation accepted a donation between $50,001 and $100,000 from CEFC.

  Tony Bobulinski on Tucker says it is a “blatant lie” when Joe Biden says he had no knowledge of his son’s business dealings:

  “There was no other reason for me to be in that bar meeting Joe Biden then to discuss what I was doing with his family’s name and the Chinese.” pic.twitter.com/famy4WaxOk

  — Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) October 28, 2020

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  But yes, let’s focus on Hunter’s tax evasion and gun issues.

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  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/20/2022 – 18:51

• Biden Approval Rating Hits New All-Time Low Of 31%, Now 'Underwater' With Own Party
  Biden Approval Rating Hits New All-Time Low Of 31%, Now ‘Underwater’ With Own Party

  Just when you thought President Joe Biden’s approval rating couldn’t get any worse, a new Quinnipac University poll released Wednesday reveals it’s dropped to all-time lows, 71% of voters don’t want him to run again in 2024 – including a majority of Democrats (54%). 

  

  Comparatively speaking, 60% of voters don’t want to see former President Donald Trump run again, though this figure includes just 27% of Republicans.

  Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy stated alongside the polling results, “There’s scant enthusiasm for a replay of either a Trump or Biden presidency. But while Trump still holds sway on his base, President Biden is underwater when it comes to support from his own party.“

  When asked if the election were held today which party the voters would like to see control the U.S. House of Representatives, they were torn between parties with a roughly 50-50 split. –Fox News

  Just 28% of those polled said they approve of Biden’s handling of the economy, with 66% disapproving. 

  The top concern among Americans, as with most recent polls, has been inflation – which is currently at a 40-year high of 9.1%.

  And when one looks at an aggregate of polls from RealClear Politics, it’s abundantly clear that Biden is absolutely cratering here.

  

  It’s amusing watching them having to confront and process the full scope of the disaster they created, one which worsens weekly. The way they manically swerve from complete confusion to full-on panic and back again is endlessly entertaining.

  “Wait, our views aren’t heeded?!?” https://t.co/G15CrBUQFD

  — Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) July 20, 2022

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  Perhaps Biden’s gaffes (or accidental truth-telling) should be of greater concern as well – as the 79-year-old president said on Wednesday that he has cancer because his mother used windshield wipers to remove oil from their car’s windshield.

  Biden says that his mother using windshield wipers to “get literally the oil slick off the window” is “why I and so damn many other people have cancer.” pic.twitter.com/YIoBlZadRJ

  — Townhall.com (@townhallcom) July 20, 2022

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  From the people who hyperventilated over demanding Trump told people to inject themselves with bleach, they sure are trying hard to avoid, ‘I and so many people my age have cancer because of windshield wipers cleaning oil off my car.’

  — Chad Felix Greene (@chadfelixg) July 20, 2022

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  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/20/2022 – 18:40

• Battery Replacement Of Family's EV Ford Focus Would Cost More Than Car Itself
  Battery Replacement Of Family’s EV Ford Focus Would Cost More Than Car Itself

  Authored by Lorenz Duschamps via The Epoch Times,

  A Florida family who just a few months ago purchased a battery-powered vehicle learned an unforgettable lesson after their car suddenly stopped working.

  

  The parents of Avery Siwinski, a 17-year-old of St. Petersburg, spent $11,000 on a used 2014 Ford Focus Electric that had 60,000 miles at the time it was bought, WTSP-TV reported.

  “In March, it started giving an alert,” Siwinski told the network.

  “And then we took it to the shop and it stopped running.”

  After taking the car to a local Ford dealership, the family learned that the mechanical issues were linked to the vehicle’s battery, which apparently needed to be replaced.

  The repair bill for the battery was a whopping $14,000, said Siwinski’s grandfather, who stepped in to help her with the car problems because her father passed away in June due to cancer.

  He also noted that the figure presented by mechanics wasn’t even the total, as it didn’t include labor costs.

  However, the family found out that all the hustle they went through was in vain, as there weren’t any batteries of that type available anymore because the Ford model is discontinued.

  “Then we found out the batteries aren’t even available,” Siwinski said.

  “So it didn’t matter. They could cost twice as much and we still couldn’t get it.”

  The family shared the story to issue a warning to people who were thinking about buying an electric vehicle.

  “If you’re buying a new one, you have to realize there is no second-hand market right now because the manufacturers are not supporting the cars,” Siwinski’s grandfather told WTSP-TV.

  According to a recent Consumer Reports survey, the vast majority of the driving public in the United States prefers to use traditional gas-powered vehicles, citing charging logistics, driving distance, and maintenance costs as the biggest reasons why they wouldn’t want to own an electric car.

  Meanwhile, a recent report from data analysis and advisory firm J.D. Power found that electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids may have more problems than internal combustion engines.

  While internal combustion engine vehicles averaged 175 problems per 100 vehicles, this jumped to 239 among plug-in hybrids and 240 among electric vehicles, a June 28 press release of the J.D. Power 2022 U.S. Initial Quality Study stated. Lower scores represent higher-quality vehicles.

  Tesla models, which were included in the industry calculation for the first time, averaged 226 problems per 100 vehicles, according to the report.

  “Automakers continue to launch vehicles that are more and more technologically complex in an era in which there have been many shortages of critical components to support them,” said David Amodeo, director of global automotive at J.D. Power, according to the press release.

  Amid elevated gas prices, White House officials have continued to suggest that Americans buy an electric car as Republicans have criticized the Biden administration’s policies for the spike in gas prices.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/20/2022 – 18:20

• Russia Declares War Goals Have Expanded After West Pumped More Arms Into Ukraine
  Russia Declares War Goals Have Expanded After West Pumped More Arms Into Ukraine

  With the Donbas region now largely under control of Russian forces five months into the invasion… is Moscow setting its sights on the rest of Ukraine? It appears this could be the case, based on provocative Wednesday remarks by Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov, captured in a fresh FT report.

  “Russia’s foreign minister said Moscow had expanded its war aims for its invasion of Ukraine, the strongest sign yet that it seeks to annex parts of the country currently under its control,” FT introduces, citing that:

  Sergei Lavrov said on Wednesday that Russia’s goals were more ambitious than Moscow had declared at the start of the war in February, when it claimed its goal was to “liberate” the eastern Donbas border region. Moscow’s war aims now extend to the provinces of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in southern Ukraine, which are mostly occupied by Russian forces, Lavrov said.

  

  Lavrov also said a “number of other territories” are additionally included in the new war aims, though without naming them.

  President Vladimir Putin and his top generals within the opening two months of the war made it clear that a central goal was to “liberate” the Donbas region, but speculation has since abounded over whether the Kremlin would keep going beyond this territory.

  Some political analysts in the West – the University of Chicago’s John Mearsheimer foremost among them – have stated their belief that Moscow initially sought to limit operations to the East, in defense of the pro-Russian breakaway republics; however, Mearsheimer has argued that many variables have likely caused Putin to expand beyond these initial goals. Chief among the battlefield variables remains Washington and the West’s continually escalating involvement, especially in weapons shipments – including longer range missile systems.

  Lavrov alluded to this in his Wednesday comments, “If the west continues to pump Ukraine full of weaponry out of impotent rage or a desire to exacerbate the situation [ . . .] then that means our geographical tasks will move even further from the current line,” he said.

  The conditional, ‘warning message’ nature of his wording suggests that the Kremlin may not have extended the goal posts just yet. Lavrov referenced that the conflict is “an ongoing process” during the statements.

  On Tuesday a White House statement condemned what it called Russia’s “annexation playbook” amid reports the Kremlin is installing pro-Russian officials and administrations in towns and cities now under its control. Russian media has also previewed potential “referendums” in these territories akin to Crimea in 2014.

  And on Wednesday the Pentagon confirmed it is sending Ukraine four more High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) as part the next round of security assistance, according to the words of Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.

  Calls made by #Russian nationalist and pro-war voices for the #Kremlin to officially define operations in #Ukraine as a war, conduct general mobilization, and pursue expanded territorial goals reached a crescendo today.

  Read the full report: https://t.co/Gm29hq9Ot9 pic.twitter.com/vkEKvKQ0bm

  — ISW (@TheStudyofWar) July 20, 2022

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  Thus the ongoing proxy war looks to grow hotter in at least the near term before any possibility of compromise is taken seriously by either side. The Ukrainian government responded to Lavrov’s latest words by reasserting that it will not sit down with the Russians at the negotiating table. “Russians want blood, not talks,” FM Dmytro Kuleba said, and urged yet more sanctions, more pressure to ramp up on Moscow from the West.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/20/2022 – 18:00

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• 15,000 Illegals Ferried To UK This Year As High Court Hears Challenge Against Rwanda Policy
  15,000 Illegals Ferried To UK This Year As High Court Hears Challenge Against Rwanda Policy

  Authored by Lily Zhou via The Epoch Times,

  The number of illegal immigrants who entered the UK by crossing the English Channel in small boats has reached 15,000 so far this year, official figures show.

  It comes as the high court is hearing a challenge brought against the government’s new policy to put eligible illegal immigrants, including asylum seekers, on one-way flights to Rwanda.

  

  On Monday, 330 people in seven boats were escorted ashore by British authorities, bringing the total number this year to 15,107, according to official figures compiled by PA News Agency.

  Crossings continued for 11 consecutive days by Monday—the longest successive run so far in 2022. There have been crossing detected on 13 of the 18 days so far this month.

  The highest daily total for 2022 to date was recorded on April 13 when 651 people made the crossing in 18 boats.

  The highest monthly total for 2022 to date was recorded in June when 3,136 arrived in 76 boats.

  According to Home Office figures, the number of channel-crossing immigrants soared in recent years, with 28,526 people detected arriving on small boats in 2021, compared to 8,466 in 2020, 1,843 in 2019, and 299 in 2018.

  A record 1,185 people made the crossing to the UK on Nov. 11, 2021—the highest figure recorded since the start of 2020.

  

  Cumulative successful arrivals in the UK by people crossing the English Channel in small boats. (PA Graphics)

  Since the UK’s exit from the European Union, few illegal immigrants who came via safe countries in Europe were successfully returned to Europe.

  In April, the British government signed a new deal with Rwanda allowing the UK to ship eligible illegal arrivals to the east African country in order to deter dangerous Channel crossing, with an initial flight chartered for June 14, reportedly costing £500,000.

  But some 47 people who were meant to be on the Boeing 767 were crossed off the list one by one following their lawyers’ challenges, and the flight was effectively grounded after the European Court of Human Rights made a last-minute intervention by removing the last remaining passenger from the flight.

  In written submissions filed for a preliminary hearing on Tuesday on behalf of four charities and eight individuals, Raza Husain QC said that recently provided documents showed that Rwanda had initially been excluded from the shortlist of potential countries “on human rights grounds.”

  In a report (pdf) published on Monday, Parliament’s Home Affairs Committee criticised the Home Office for making policy announcements “before detailed policy has been worked through, tested, and even agreed between government departments.”

  The report said “much more clarity is required” on the Rwanda policy, including the cost, the effectiveness of the tactic in deterring channel crossings, and how to ensure the long-term mental and physical well-being of those relocated.

  According to data from the UN’s refugee agency, at least 120,441 people arrived in Europe via the Mediterranean by land and sea in 2021.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/20/2022 – 02:00

• Chris Hedges: War With Iran?
  Chris Hedges: War With Iran?

  Authored by Chris Hedges via ConsortiumNews.com,

  The United States, Saudi Arabia and Israel, responsible for military fiascos, hundreds of thousands of deaths and innumerable war crimes in the Middle East, are now plotting to attack Iran.

  

  Illustration by Mr. Fish — “Biden at Bat”

  The United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia are plotting a war with Iran. The 2015 Iranian nuclear arms accord, or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which Donald Trump sabotaged, does not look like it will be revived.  U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) is reviewing options to attack if Teheran looks poised to obtain a nuclear weapon and Israel, which opposes U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, carries out military strikes.

  During his visit to Israel, Biden assured Prime Minister Yair Lapid that the U.S. is “prepared to use all elements of its national power,” including military force, to stop Iran from building a nuclear weapon. 

  Saudi Arabia, Israel and the U.S. function as a troika in the Middle East. The Israeli government has built a close alliance with Saudi Arabia, which produced 15 of the 19 hijackers in the Sept. 11 attacks and has been a prolific sponsor of international terrorism, supporting Salafi jihadism, the basis of al-Qaeda, and such groups as the Afghanistan Taliban, Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and the Al-Nusra Front.  

  The three countries worked in tandem to back the 2013 military coup in Egypt, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who overthrew its first democratically elected government. He has imprisoned tens of thousands of government critics, including journalists and human rights defenders, on politically motivated charges. The Sisi regime collaborates with Israel by keeping its common border with Gaza closed to Palestinians, trapping them in the Gaza strip, one of the most densely populated and impoverished places on earth. 

  Israel, the only nuclear power in the Middle East, has conducted an ongoing campaign of covert attacks on Iranian nuclear sites and nuclear scientists. Four Iranian nuclear scientists were assassinated, presumably by Israel, between 2010 and 2012. In July 2020, a fire, attributed to an Israeli bomb, damaged Iran’s Natanz nuclear site. In November 2020, Israel used remote control machine guns to assassinate Iran’s top nuclear scientist. 

  In January 2020, the United States assassinated Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s elite Quds Force, along with nine other people including a key figure in the anti-ISIS coalition, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. It used an MQ-9 Reaper drone to fire missiles into his convoy, near Baghdad’s airport. 

  Iranian Restraint

  If similar attacks had been carried out by Iranian operatives inside Israel, it would have triggered a war. Only Iran’s decision not to retaliate, beyond lobbing about a dozen ballistic missiles at two military bases in Iraq, prevented a conflagration. 

  On July 7, Iran informed The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that  it is using IR-6 centrifuges with “modified subheaders.” The declared purpose of the enrichment process at its underground facility at Fordow is to create uranium isotope enriched up to 20 percent — far below the 90 percent enrichment levels necessary to create weapons-grade uranium. Under the JCPOA agreement, enrichment levels were capped at 3.67 percent.

  Israel has allocated $1.5 billion for a potential strike against Iran and, during the first week of June, held large-scale military exercises, including one over the Mediterranean and in the Red Sea, in preparation to attack Iranian nuclear sites using dozens of fighter aircraft, including Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter jets.  

  The 2016 Memorandum of Understanding signed by President Barack Obama provides a 10-year, $38 billion military package for Israel. 

  Israel and its lobby in the U.S. are working to scuttle  negotiations with Iran to monitor its nuclear program. The preparation for war mirrors the Israeli pressure on the U.S. to invade Iraq, one of the worst strategic decisions in U.S. history. 

  Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, in testimony before the British Iraq war commission, offered this account of his discussions with George W. Bush in Crawford, Texas in April 2002:

  “As I recall that discussion, it was less to do with specifics about what we were going to do on Iraq or, indeed, the Middle East, because the Israel issue was a big, big issue at the time. I think, in fact, I remember, actually, there may have been conversations that we had even with Israelis, the two of us, whilst we were there. So that was a major part of all this.”   

  Saudi Arabia, which seeks to dominate the Arab world, severed ties with Iran in 2016 after its embassy in Tehran was stormed by protesters following Riyadh’s execution of Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr. Saudi Arabia, with Chinese help, has built a plant to process uranium ore and acquired ballistic missiles. Saudi Arabia signed a series of letters in 2017 with the U.S. to purchase weapons totaling $110 billion immediately, and $350 billion over the next decade.

  Awar with Iran would be a catastrophe of unimaginable proportions.  It would spread swiftly throughout the region. The Shiites across the Middle East would see an attack on Iran as a religious war against Shiism. The two million Shiites in Saudi Arabia, concentrated in the oil-rich Eastern province; the Shiite majority in Iraq; and the Shiite communities in Bahrain, Pakistan and Turkey would join the fight against the U.S. and Israel. 

  Iran would use its Chinese-supplied anti-ship missiles, rocket and bomb-equipped speedboats and submarines, mines, drones and coastal artillery to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, the corridor for 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquified gas supply. Oil production facilities in the Persian Gulf would be sabotaged.

  Iranian oil, which makes up 13 percent of the world’s energy supply, would be taken off the market. Oil would jump to over $500 a barrel and perhaps, as the conflict drags on, to over $750 a barrel. Our petroleum-based economy, already reeling under rising prices because of the sanctions on Russia, would grind to a halt.

  Israel would be hit by Iranian Shahab-3 ballistic missiles. Hezbollah’s store of Iranian-supplied rockets that allegedly can reach any part of Israel, including Israel’s nuclear plant at Dimona, would also be deployed. Strikes by Iran and its allies on Israel, as well as on American military installations in the region, would leave hundreds, maybe thousands, dead.

  In 2002, the U.S. military conducted its “most elaborate war game” ever, costing over $250 million. Known as the Millennium Challenge, the exercise was between a Blue Force (the U.S.) and the Red Force (widely considered as a stand-in for Iran). It was meant to validate America’s “modern, joint-service war-fighting concepts.” It did the opposite. The Red Force, led by retired Marine lieutenant general Paul Van Riper, conducted a swarm of kamikaze suicide boat attacks and destroyed 16 U.S. warships in under 20 minutes.

  When the war game was reset, it was rigged in favor of the Blue Force. The Blue Force was given access to experimental technology – including that which doesn’t exist such as airborne laser weapons. Meanwhile, the Red Force was told they weren’t allowed to shoot down the Blue Team’s aircraft, had to keep their offensive weapons in the open and could not use chemical weapons. Even then, the Blue Force could not achieve all of its objectives as Riper unleashed a guerrilla insurgency on the occupying forces.

  The US-Saudi Tandem

  

  President Joe Biden and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz greeting at Al-Salam Palace in Jeddah, on Friday. (Saudi Press Agency/Wikipedia)

  Why shouldn’t Joe Biden be feted by the murderous regime of Saudi Arabia and the apartheid state of Israel? He and the U.S. have as much blood on their hands as they do. Yes, in 2018 the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, ordered the assassination and dismemberment of my friend and colleague Jamal Khashoggi. Yes, Israel assassinated Palestinian journalist Shireen Abu Akleh. But Washington has more than matched the crimes carried out by Israel and the Saudis, including against journalists. 

  The imprisonment of Julian Assange – who released the collateral murder video showing U.S. helicopter pilots laughing as they shot to death two Reuters journalists and a group of civilians in Iraq in 2007 – is designed to destroy Assange psychologically and physically. The corpses of civilians, including children, piled up by Israel and Saudi Arabia, who do much of their killing in Gaza and Yemen with U.S. weapons, don’t come close to the hundreds of thousands of dead the U.S. has left behind in the two decades of warfare it has perpetrated in the Middle East. 

  In 1991, a U.S.-led coalition destroyed much of Iraq’s civilian infrastructure, including water treatment facilities resulting in sewage contaminating the country’s drinking water. Then followed years of U.S., U.K. and French airstrikes enforcing a “No Fly Zone” along with crushing sanctions they imposed via the U.N. From 1991 to 1998, these sanctions alone were estimated to have killed 100,000 to 227,000 Iraqi children under the age of five, although the exact figures have been the subject of much dispute.

  The U.S. “Shock and Awe” bombing campaign of Iraqi urban centers during its subsequent invasion of Iraq in 2003 dropped 3,000 bombs on civilian areas, killing over 7,000 noncombatants in the first two months of the war. 

  By one estimate, the U.S. has been responsible for directly or indirectly killing nearly 20 million people since the end of the Second World War. 

  Israel and Saudi Arabia are gangster states. But so is the United States.

  “There are few of them,” Biden, reacting to Democratic lawmakers who have criticized Israel’s treatment of the Palestinians, told Israel’s Channel 12 news. “I think they’re wrong. I think they’re making a mistake. Israel is a democracy. Israel is our ally. Israel is a friend and I make no apologies.”

  The angst about Biden’s not holding the Saudis and the Israelis to account on this visit is risible, as if we have any credibility left that allows us to arbitrate between right and wrong.

  The idea that Biden and the U.S. are brokers for peace was eviscerated long ago. The U.S. offers shameless support for Israel’s right-wing government, including vetoing U.N. resolutions that censor Israel.

  It refuses to condition aid on a respect for human rights even as Israel launches repeated murderous assaults against the civilian population in Gaza, labels Palestinian NGOs as terror groups, expands illegal Jewish-only settlements, carries out aggressive housing evictions of Palestinian families and mistreats Palestinian and Arab-American citizens at points of entry and within the Occupied Palestinian Territories.

  The idea that the U.S. represents and promotes virtue illustrates the self-delusion that accompanies America’s moral and physical degeneration. The rest of the world, which recoils in repugnance at what the U.S. has become, does not take it seriously. They fear U.S. bombs. But fear is not respect.

  They no longer envy America’s hedonistic mass culture, tarnished by mass shootings, social inequality, the decay of infrastructure, dysfunction and a Grand Guignol-style of politics that has turned civil and political discourse into a tawdry burlesque.

  America is a grim joke, one about to be made worse when the Christian fascists, bigots and conspiracy theorists take control of Congress in the fall, and I expect, the presidency two years later.

  The U.S., along with Israel, makes war on Muslims who, with an estimated 1.9 billion adherents, comprise nearly 25 percent of the world population. The U.S. has turned many in the Muslim world into its enemies. The Muslim world does not hate the U.S. for its values. It hates its hypocrisy. It hates its racism, its refusal to honor their political aspirations, its lethal attacks and military occupations and its crippling sanctions.

  Muslims express the rage felt by Guatemalans, Cubans, Congolese, Brazilians, Argentines, Indonesians, Panamanians, Vietnamese, Cambodians, Filipinos, North and South Koreans, Chileans, Nicaraguans and Salvadorans – those Frantz Fanon called “the wretched of the earth.” They too were slaughtered by the U.S. high-tech military machine and subjugated, humiliated, forced to accept U.S. hegemony and killed in American clandestine torture centers or by C.I.A.-backed assassins.

  No one is held accountable. The C.I.A. blocked all investigations into its torture program, including destroying videotape evidence of interrogations involving torture and classifying nearly all of the 6,900-page report by the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence that examined the C.I.A.’s post-9/11 program of detention, torture and other abuse of detainees. 

  Biden goes to Saudi Arabia and Israel as a supplicant. As a presidential candidate, he called Saudi Arabia a “pariah” and vowed to make it “pay the price” for Khashoggi’s murder.

  But with the rising price of oil, Biden is whitewashing the murder, along with the humanitarian disaster the Saudis have caused in Yemen, imploring the Saudis to increase output, a plea Prince Salman has rejected.

  Similarly, Biden is weak in Israel, powerless against the expansion of Jewish settlements and assaults on Palestinians, and unwilling to move the U.S. Embassy back to Tel Aviv from Jerusalem, a move by the Trump administration that violates international law.

  Biden’s staff was reduced to pleading with the Israelis not to embarrass him as they did during his 2010 visit as vice president. During his 2010 visit, Israel announced it was building 1,600 new Jewish-only houses in illegal settlements in occupied East Jerusalem. The Obama White House angrily condemned “the substance and timing of the announcement.”

  How can the U.S. bar Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela from a summit of the Americas in Los Angeles and embrace the Saudi regime and the Israeli aparatheid state? How can it decry the war crimes of Russia and unleash industrial violence on the Mulism world?

  How can it plead for the 12 million Uyghurs, mostly Muslim, living in Xinjiang, and ignore the Palestinians? How can it justify another “preemptive war,” this time against Iran?

  The duplicity is not lost on most of the world. They know who the U.S. is. They know that in American eyes they are unworthy. The inevitable demise of the U.S. on the world stage is cheered by the majority of the planet. The tragedy is that, as it goes down, it is determined to take so many others down with it.

  *  *  *

  AUTHOR’S NOTE TO READERS: There is now no way left for me to continue to write a weekly column for ScheerPost and produce my weekly television show without your help. The walls are closing in, with startling rapidity, on independent journalism, with the elites, including the Democratic Party elites, clamoring for more and more censorship. Bob Scheer, who runs ScheerPost on a shoestring budget, and I will not waver in our commitment to independent and honest journalism, and we will never put ScheerPost behind a paywall, charge a subscription for it, sell your data or accept advertising. Please, if you can, sign up at chrishedges.substack.com so I can continue to post my now weekly Monday column on ScheerPost and produce my weekly television show, The Chris Hedges Report.

  This column is from Scheerpost, for which Chris Hedges writes a regular column. Click here to sign up for email alerts.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 07/19/2022 – 23:25

• Court-Packing House Dems Demand Four New Seats On Supreme Court
  Court-Packing House Dems Demand Four New Seats On Supreme Court

  A group of House Democrats on Monday pushed for Congress to add four seats to the US Supreme Court in order to overcome the panel’s 6-3 conservative majority.

  

  At a Monday press conference hosted by ‘Take Back the Court Action Fund,’ Democratic lawmakers decried recent rulings from the Court which overturned the landmark abortion precedent in Roe v. Wade, which followed a decision which prohibited New York from restricting concealed carry permits.

  Eight House Democrats, including Reps. Andy Levin (MI), Jan Schakowsky (IL), Rashida Tlaib (MI), Sheila Jackson Lee (TX), Mondaire Jones (NY), Ed Markey (MA) and Senator Hank Johnson (GA) were at the conference.

  According to Rep. Hank Johnson (D-GA), the Supreme Court is “making decisions that usurp the power of the legislative and executive branches.”

  Republican politicians made controlling the judicial branch part of their platform, said Rep. Mark Takano (D-Calif.), adding that the court has “gone rogue” and “become a radical institution.” 

  The lawmakers also emphasized that the longevity of the lifelong terms the sitting justices are now serving makes action to expand the court more urgent. 

  Of 72-year-old conservative Justice Samuel Alito, Johnson said, “You can see the gleam in his eye as he thinks about what he wants to do to decimate the rights of people and put us back in the Dark Ages.” -The Hill

  And of course, they’re framing the current USSC configuration as “court packing” by the Republicans – when in fact Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s decision not to retire when Obama could have appointed another liberal Justice, and GOP lawmakers’ lawful refusal to confirm an Obama nominee after the death of Justice Antonin Scalia – allowing President Trump to appoint Neil Gorsuch, followed by Brett Kavanaugh (replacing Anthony Kennedy), and Bader’s replacement Amy Coney Barrett, are what led to the Court’s current weighting.

  “The nightmare scenario of GOP court-packing is already upon us,” said Rep. Jones, adding “That’s how they got this far-right 6-3 majority in the first place.”

  As The Hill notes, Congress has changed the number of justices on the court seven times.

  Regardless, the measure is unlikely to succeed, as Democrats are not expected to be able to clear the filibuster’s 60-vote threshold in the Senate.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 07/19/2022 – 23:05

• Faster Spreading Omicron Variants Hit China, Sparking Lockdown Concerns
  Faster Spreading Omicron Variants Hit China, Sparking Lockdown Concerns

  Authored by Alex Wu via The Epoch Times,

  Two, more infectious, COVID-19 Omicron variants were detected in China, and a new round of outbreaks has quickly spread to more than 20 of China’s 31 provinces in 2 weeks. Two big cities in western China have been locked down, while major Chinese port cities are conducting mass testing. All of this is sparking concerns about more lockdowns and economic repercussions.

  

  Fourteen COVID-19 cases were reported on July 17 in China’s southwestern city Chengdu in Sichuan Province. The patients are infected with Omicron variant BA.2.12.1, which hadn’t been seen in China before.

  According to mainland Chinese media China Business Network, as of July 18 as many as 10 subvariants of Omicron have been detected across the country since the first locally confirmed case of BA.5 variant was reported in China’s megacity Xi’an on July 6.

  Public research data shows that the Omicron BA.2.12.1 variant strain is more infectious than the original variant of Omicron. Its transmission speed is 1.2 times that of the BA.2 variant. Both BA.2.12.1 and BA.5 can escape vaccine-elicited antibodies.

  Faster Spreading Variants Causing Lockdowns of Big Cities

  On July 18, authorities ordered a 7-day lockdown of Chengdu, the provincial capital with a population of 16.3 million. During that time, nobody is allowed to leave the city without a negative COVID-19 nucleic acid test result from the last 48 hours.

  The official notice also states that indoor entertainment venues such as bars, KTVs, gyms, and various public cultural and sports venues in the city are temporarily shut down. Large-scale conferences are not allowed to be held in the city for the time being, in-person training and religious activities are suspended, no catering services for banquets, and various clinics are prohibited from accepting patients with a fever.

  As the more infectious variants BA.5 and BA.2.12.1 are spreading in China, authorities in more big cities have ordered lockdowns, partial lockdowns, or district control.

  

  Security staff stand guard at the entrance of a residental area following COVID-19 cases in Zhangye in China’s northwestern Gansu Province, on Oct. 23, 2021. (STR/AFP via Getty Images)

  Many areas in Lanzhou, the capital city of Gansu Province, population 3.8 million, are under lockdown, and nearly 10,000 residents have been sent to centralized isolation facilities for quarantine due to the new outbreak.

  Ms. Chen, the owner of a restaurant in Chengguan District of Lanzhou, told The Epoch Times on July 18 that the city was shut down last week. “The epidemic here is very serious. The entire area is locked down. All shops and restaurants have been closed since last week. Everyone is ordered to stay at home and not allowed to go out.”

  Ms. Zhang, a resident of Yantan Road of Chengguan District in Lanzhou City also told The Epoch Times on July 18 that the city was already under lockdown.

  “Because of the outbreak, the whole city of Lanzhou is shut down. You can’t get in. There are policemen standing on the streets, and you are not allowed to walk on the street. Taxi services are stopped. All the communities [neighborhoods] in the city are closed.”

  The Epoch Times called Yanbei Street office in Chengguan District and the Lanzhou CDC but couldn’t get through.

  Meanwhile, mass COVID-19 testing is conducted in the mega port cities of Shanghai and Tianjin, sparking fears of another round of city-wide lockdowns that would further worsen the Chinese economy and disrupt the global supply chain.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 07/19/2022 – 22:45

• Chipotle Closes First Of Its Stores To Vote For Union
  Chipotle Closes First Of Its Stores To Vote For Union

  In what’s being decried as “union-busting 101,” Chipotle Mexican Grill just permanently closed the first of its stores nationwide where employees voted to pursue unionization. 

  At 7:39am on Tuesday, a Chipotle Northeast “people experience partner” emailed employees to notify them that Chipotle was pulling the plug on their store on Stephen King Drive in Augusta, Maine.

  The closure comes just four weeks after employees petitioned the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) to arrange a unionization election. On July 11, a Delta Township, Michigan Chipotle’s became the second location in the country to make that move. As we reported last week, union-organizing across the country has surged to a six-year high, with Starbucks a notable target.     

  For lack of workers, the store has been closed to the public since June 17, but the company kept it open for training and continued paying Augusta employees while not actually serving customers. Now, laid-off workers will receive pay for scheduled shifts this week plus four weeks of severance based on the hours worked in the last two weeks. 

  In a statement, Chipotle’s chief corporate affairs officer Laurie Schalow said the chain had gone to “extraordinary lengths” to staff the Augusta location, to include assigning two recruiting experts to support the store: 

  “Despite these efforts, we have been unable to adequately staff this remote restaurant with crew and continue to be plagued with excessive call-outs and lack of availability from existing staff. We have had an even more difficult time finding managers to lead the restaurant. Because of these ongoing staffing challenges, there is no probability of reopening in the foreseeable future, so we’ve made the decision to permanently close the restaurant.” 

  Workers are planning a Tuesday evening rally to demand the store be reopened. “Chipotle is playing dirty and we’re fighting back! Join us at 5pm to protest the closure of our store and tell them that union busting is bad business! …Bring your signs and your voices and stand up with Chipotle United!” the group said on Twitter.  

  

  The week before the June 23 union vote, employees staged a two-day walkout to protest what they described as unsafe working conditions. Specifically, in a letter to management, 10 employees said that alleged understaffing put employees at risk of cutting themselves and each other: “Prep work such as dicing and slicing vegetables is done in the kitchen during our busy times out of necessity, creating a hazard for crew members rushing to cover so much extra work around the knives.”

  Augusta Chipotle employee and Chipotle United member Brandi McNease told WGME TV: 

  “They waited until the morning of the [NLRB] hearing to close the store and then claimed we couldn’t elect to form a union because we’re permanently closed. This is union busting 101 and there is nothing that motivates us to fight harder than this underhanded attempt to shut down the labor movement within their stores. They’re scared because they know how powerful we are and if we catch fire like the unionization effort at Starbucks, they won’t be able to stop us.”

  McNease told the Bangor Daily News:

  “For a company that gave a bonus to its CEO that was 1,700 times more than the median Chipotle worker’s pay in 2020, I don’t believe for a minute that they couldn’t afford to hire a manager and enough staff to keep this store running. Chipotle has the money to attract workers and pay them living wages, but it would prefer to use it to pay exorbitant dividends to their shareholders.”

  Apparently, McNease knows a lot more about guacamole than Chipotle stock. The company has never paid a dividend.  

  Chipotle can try to bully, harass & intimidate workers, but they can’t stop a movement! Please join Chipotle United workers for a rally today at 5pm in Augusta to tell the company to reopen the store & immediately cease its union busting! https://t.co/QOVcj7EQoi

  — Maine AFL-CIO (@MEAFLCIO) July 19, 2022

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  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 07/19/2022 – 22:25

• Ignore The Unproductive Central Planners And Use Bitcoin
  Ignore The Unproductive Central Planners And Use Bitcoin

  Authored by Marty Bent via BitcoinMagazine.com,

  The unproductive class is doing its best to ruin the global economy. This class is made up of politicians, bureaucrats and central bankers that have been enabled by a global administrative state expanding at an ever-increasing pace since the end of World War II. Those individuals who make up the unproductive class do not produce anything of value for the world despite what they would like you to think, which is that they are an essential part of order in the world. In fact, the unproductive class should probably be more aptly described as the counterproductive class as everything they do seems to create friction for those who actually bring valuable productive skills and expertise to the world.

  

  Hell, it has even gotten to the point where it isn’t a far fetched idea to believe that the unproductive class is actively being counterproductive in an attempt to push the masses into a fearful and desperate state that would make them more susceptible to being manipulated to act against their short- and long-term best interests. Your crazy Uncle Marty has reached this conclusion. One can only witness so many coincidental “incompetent blunders” in a row over the course of several years before beginning to grow suspicious that something nefarious is afoot.

  • Forced lockdowns.

  • Printing trillions.

  • Normalizing masks, which have been proven not to work.

  • Mandating experimental vaccines.

  • Energy policy that decreases availability and reliability while increasing costs.

  • Food policy that leads to shortages.

  When isolated, it is easy to write each off as a policy mistake that anyone could have made in the heat of the moment. However, when you take a step back and consider that these policies across different domains have been flung at the public at an incredible pace and in conjunction with one another globally, it is extremely hard to come to any other conclusion besides there is a coordinated effort to completely restructure society in the eyes of those in power: the unproductive class of psychotic central planners. If the unproductive class that is coordinating on an international level, control the money, the energy, the food and eliminate bodily autonomy, they will have successfully subjugated the world.

  Don’t look now freaks, but the unproductive class does have a high degree of control over all of those things at the moment. I would argue that we have already been subjugated. The masses of men do not find themselves in a position where they need to figure out how to defend against a looming subjugation. They find themselves in a position where they better recognize they have been subjugated and work quickly to break free while the door to freedom is still cracked and in a position where it can be kicked open with a bit of effort.

  Bitcoin is the wedge that is keeping the door cracked and the more prominent it becomes, the higher the chances that the masses of men will escape subjugation by the unproductive class. The power over the money is the base from which the unproductive class operates. If one has the central authority to create and destroy monetary units and decide who can and cannot receive or send those monetary units, they can essentially centrally plan an economy. Bitcoin allows us to rip that central control away from the unproductive class. This is just the first step, though.

  To fully cut the unproductive class away from the levers of control, the productive class must begin to secure the layers outside of money using bitcoin. One of the highest layers and easiest to disrupt is energy. Bitcoin mining provides many avenues by which energy producers can begin to pry themselves away from the unproductive class wielding the money printer. The easiest way to do so is by monetizing their stranded energy directly via bitcoin mining.

  Mining with stranded natural gas right next to grazing cattle is a special kind of feeling.

  Wen @upstreamdatainc / @beefinitiative collab? pic.twitter.com/WsA44W5UMJ

  — Marty Bent (@MartyBent) July 13, 2022

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  By converting previously wasted resources to censorship resistant hard money, energy producers can begin to bolster their balance sheets in a worst case scenario — buy relatively expensive ASICs during at the peak before a bear market — and supercharge them or, in a best case scenario — buy relatively cheap ASICs at the bottom before a bull market. Increasing the efficiency of your assets is always a good thing, but it’s a great thing when that efficiency (in this case, utilizing previously underutilized assets) brings increased profits. This is step one.

  Step two kicks in when energy producers realize the power of the Bitcoin network and begin to demand that they get paid in sats for selling their precious energy resources to the market. When this happens, the script will be completely flipped on the unproductive class. With the insanity of ESG mandates increasing as time goes on, the likelihood of this script flipping increases.

  Unproductive central planners are ruining the world. If we’re going to get ourselves out of this mess it’s important that the productive class begins to ignore the unproductive class and get shit done, starting with the energy sector.https://t.co/DymFGNAWpK

  — Marty Bent (@MartyBent) July 9, 2022

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  The energy sector could flip the script and right the ship in a relatively short period of time if those in charge of the companies that provide the world with energy demanded better money for their goods and services. Money that can’t be manipulated by central planners. Bitcoin.

  — Marty Bent (@MartyBent) July 9, 2022

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  Bitcoin provides freedom from manipulation via the unproductive class in two ways; the unproductive class cannot indiscriminately censor your ability to receive and send money if they don’t like what you are doing and they cannot debase the currency.

  — Marty Bent (@MartyBent) July 9, 2022

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  It is not hard to see an attack on energy producers from the unproductive class pushing insane ESG mandates on the markets where they begin to try to freeze the bank accounts of producers who decide not to play along with the madness. If and when this point is reached, it will probably instill a ton of fear in these energy producers, but they should not fear. They have leverage on their side because they produce energy, which is vital for human flourishing. As we’re discovering rather quickly, when energy supply chains break down, it has dire consequences. When push comes to shove, the smart humans will begin to ignore the unproductive class and attempt to acquire the energy they need in any way possible. Luckily for those smart individuals Bitcoin exists and it is there to offer them a censorship resistant network through which they can settle energy trades. Sats for power will become the norm.

  It would be nice if it didn’t reach this point, and the best way to prevent it from getting to that point is for energy producers to frontrun the censorship by beginning to settle their trades in sats instead of cuck bucks. The question that remains is: How quickly is the productive class going to take initiative and preemptively remove the unproductive leeches from the equation?

  *  *  *

  The above is a direct excerpt of Marty’s Bent Issue #1337: “Ignore the unproductive central planners.” Sign up for the newsletter here.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 07/19/2022 – 22:05

• China Belatedly Calls Out John Bolton's Coup-Planning Admission
  China Belatedly Calls Out John Bolton’s Coup-Planning Admission

  China has belatedly reacted to the coup-plotting admission of former White House national security adviser and longtime neocon foreign policy architect John Bolton. In a live interview last week with CNN’s “The Lead”, Bolton casually admitted to having planned “coups d’etat” in the past while being questioned about Trump’s role on Jan.6. “As somebody who has helped plan coups d’etat—not here but, you know, [in] other places—it takes a lot of work,” Bolton had boasted.

  During a Monday press briefing, spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry Wang Wenbin was scathing in his critique of the interview, saying that “overthrowing foreign governments is deep in the bones of how the US conducts its foreign policy.”

  Jake Tapper: “One doesn’t have to be brilliant to attempt a coup.”

  John Bolton: “I disagree with that. As somebody who has helped plan coup d’etat, not here, but other places, it takes a lot of work.” pic.twitter.com/REyqh3KtHi

  — Justin Baragona (@justinbaragona) July 12, 2022

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  “Bolton’s admission is so revealing,” he continued. “Leading US politicians trumpet the so-called ‘rules-based international order’ for one purpose: to ensure that the US can easily interfere in other countries’ affairs and overthrow their governments at its own will.”

  “This is exactly the kind of ‘rules’ and ‘order’ that people like Bolton want absolutely to defend. The people of the world, however, will not let them,” Wang added.

  China and Russia have long held up the disastrous US invasions and occupations of Iraq and Afghanistan in particular as evidence that Washington is addicted to regime change, and further that it hypocritically denounces other countries while employing moralistic language, despite its well-known human rights abuses killings of civilians in regions like the Middle East.

  Continuing this theme of Beijing’s, Wang said in his Monday comments, “The US’ acts of regime change remain unchecked even after the end of the Cold War. For years, the US has created political unrest in Latin America, played a part in the Arab Spring, and instigated color revolutions in Europe and Asia.”

  

  Some of the earliest and fiercest reaction in the wake of Bolton’s CNN interview came out of Latin America. For example, former Bolivian president and socialist leader Evo Morales denounced Bolton, saying, “It is proof that the US is the worst enemy of democracy and life.” Additionally, Maduro’s Venezuela held a formal vote in parliament condemning Bolton’s remarks as “an extraordinary feat of brazenness” – also calling him “crazy”.

  Washington relations with China have soured further over the Russian war in Ukraine, given calls for Beijing to unreservedly denounce the invasion have been met with silence. China has further gone so far as to urge to West to take seriously Moscow’s security demands related to NATO expansion.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 07/19/2022 – 21:45

• Ex-COVID Czar Birx Admits Virus "Came Out Of The Box Ready To Infect"
  Ex-COVID Czar Birx Admits Virus “Came Out Of The Box Ready To Infect”

  Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Former top White House COVID-19 adviser Deborah Birx said Sunday that COVID-19 “came out of the box ready to infect” when it was first detected in Wuhan, China, in 2019.

  

  Speaking to the Daily Mail, Birx said that COVID-19 “was already more infectious than flu when it first arrived,” saying that most viruses take months or years to become highly transmissible among humans.

  Birx, who had worked under former President Donald Trump, told the paper that either COVID-19 was “an abnormal thing of nature” or that Chinese scientists at the Wuhan Institute of Virology were “working on coronavirus vaccines.” Researchers could have contracted the virus before spreading it to others or it escaped from the lab, she said.

  Lab Leak

  “It happens, labs aren’t perfect, people aren’t perfect, we make mistakes and there can be contamination,” Birx said, noting that individuals with COVID-19 can be asymptomatic. “Someone working in the lab with one of the strains could’ve caught it and not known they had it,” she said.

  

  The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) could have reduced deaths if officials told health leaders that the virus can spread asymptomatically, she said.

  “China was implying that they were containing it, but asymptomatic spread cannot be contained without testing,” Birx told the publication. “I think the world lost several months of preparation because we were thinking there wasn’t that level of human-to-human spread when there clearly was.”

  While some news outlets and so-called fact-checking websites labeled the lab leak hypothesis as a conspiracy theory, top U.S. officials conceded later in 2021 that it’s within the realm of possibility. A report released by the 17-agency Intelligence Community in 2021 shows that some federal officials believe the virus emerged from the Wuhan laboratory, according to the White House in a May 26 news release.

  Chinese officials, meanwhile, have claimed the virus was first found in December 2019, emerging from a wet market in Wuhan about 10 miles from the lab’s location. It was later revealed by the National Institutes of Health that it provided funding to researchers who were carrying out research on bat coronaviruses.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 07/19/2022 – 21:25

• NBC Journalist Laments: "People Don't Trust Us, They Don't Believe Us"
  NBC Journalist Laments: “People Don’t Trust Us, They Don’t Believe Us”

  Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

  An NBC journalist embraced a rare moment of self-awareness when she admitted, “people don’t trust us, they don’t believe us.”

  

  The comments were made by Katy Tur during an interview with The Hill to promote her new book.

  “The trust in media, in newspapers and television, is hitting an all time low,” said Tur as she looked forlorn.

  “People don’t trust us. They don’t believe us, and it makes me wonder if this job —as I’m currently doing it– is effective, but if it’s doing more harm than good,” she added.

  Wow, finally a journalist who has accepted the horrific state of her industry.

  .@KatyTurNBC: “The trust in media, in newspapers and television, is hitting an all time low. People don’t trust us. They don’t believe us, and it makes me wonder if this job —as I’m currently doing it— is effective, but if it’s doing more harm than good.” https://t.co/eUKLZPCUHm pic.twitter.com/PfjXakQThZ

  — The Hill (@thehill) July 17, 2022

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  Tur made the comments in response to a new Gallup poll which finds that, “Just 16% of U.S. adults now say they have ‘a great deal’ or ‘quite a lot’ of confidence in newspapers and 11% in television news.”

  “Hear me out for a second here — have you considered not lying?” remarked Chris Menahan. That’s a rhetorical question — of course the answer is no. The media’s only concern is how to best package the regime’s lies in a way that’s “effective.”

  With the public showing a total lack of trust in the media, the baton has been handed to so-called ‘fact checkers’, who are just offshoots of legacy media outlets, to try to control the narrative by ‘debunking’ dissenting views.

  However, now they’re losing credibility too, leading them to try to pressure Big Tech to ban their competition, with fact checkers explicitly stating their reason for doing so is that no one is interested in watching ‘fact checker’ content on platforms like YouTube.

  As we highlighted last month, CNN’s ratings continue to collapse, down 63% from just a year ago, and CNN+ was a dismal failure.

  The network’s new leader is now ordering hyper-partisan hacks to stop giving their biased opinions on everything and concentrate on delivering actual news.

  *  *  *

  Brand new merch now available! Get it at https://www.pjwshop.com/

  In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch. I need you to sign up for my free newsletter here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown. Get early access, exclusive content and behinds the scenes stuff by following me on Locals.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 07/19/2022 – 20:45

• Wave Of Profit Downgrades May Have Just Kicked Off
  Wave Of Profit Downgrades May Have Just Kicked Off

  By Cormac Mullen, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and analyst

  The long anticipated wave of global earnings downgrades looks like it may have begun, though for now at least it’s more of a ripple.

  Forward earnings estimates for the MSCI AC World Index have come down by over one percent from their early June high. Analysts still seem reluctant to take a knife to profit forecasts despite the threat of recession, something they had no qualms about doing with bottom-up price targets at the first sign of equity weakness this year.

  Those peaked in late January and have been slashed by about 12%. That ties in with the narrative that investors are reining in the multiples they are prepared to pay for stocks in a new and uncertain inflationary regime. Stocks have fallen quicker than price targets though, as evidenced by the rising upside expected for the global equity benchmark — now just over 25%.

  

  With global blue chips from Apple to Microsoft to Google vocally preparing for a slowdown in growth, that upside is likely to be an illusion until earnings estimates reset much lower.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 07/19/2022 – 20:05

• Next Round Of Heat Tests China's Ability To Keep Factories Humming
  Next Round Of Heat Tests China’s Ability To Keep Factories Humming

  Another round of dangerous heat is forecasted to plague large swaths of China as the nation’s power grid is pushed to the brink. Factories have already received power rationing notices to stabilize the grid and thwart rolling blackouts, ensuring sufficient supply for air-conditioners. The last thing China needs is social unrest amid the mortgage boycott crisis. 

  China Meteorological Administration expects temperatures in the southern region, including Jiangxi, Zhejiang, and Fujian provinces, to reach between 39 and 42 degrees Celsius (102.2 Fahrenheit and 107.6 Fahrenheit) through late August. 

  For the last two weeks, China has been boiling with temperatures of 35 degrees Celsius (95 Fahrenheit). The next round of heat apocalypse appears to be arriving on Wednesday. 

  Last week, the nation’s electricity generation hit a record high due to soaring cooling demand, forcing the government to ration power to polyester and textile factories in Zhejiang province, according to the South China Morning Post. Other electricity-hungry export factories were also rationed power to ensure grid stability. 

  

  Another round of heat comes as nationwide power shortages worsen supply chain problems. Disruptions from power shortages could be nearing as Bloomberg points out that some coal-fired power plants in the country’s coastal area have rapidly depleted stockpiles. Some power plants have only ten days of usage, warned consultant Fenwei Energy Information Service Co. 

  Besides energy-intensive factories rationing power, office buildings and shopping malls have reduced power usage. 

  Eleven provinces have sent alerts to industrial users for “orderly consumption” that would limit supply when air-conditioning demand jumps. Among the affected regions, Jiangsu has already cut power to just 20% of normal levels in some places and threatened to switch off the electricity to factories consuming excessive amounts, according to industrial news outlet Chemical Fiber Group. -Bloomberg

  Fenwei Energy also said that utility companies are under pressure because of high coal costs, resulting in losses for some coal-power generators. China’s COVID Zero policy made things worse by restricting coal imports and the movement of shipments within the country to utilities. 

  The electricity shortage and power rationing at factories will dampen economic growth in the world’s second-largest economy and worsen supply chain problems. 

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 07/19/2022 – 19:45

• Mexican President Intervenes With Biden, Renews Asylum Offer For Julian Assange
  Mexican President Intervenes With Biden, Renews Asylum Offer For Julian Assange

  Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

  On Monday, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said he delivered a letter to President Biden last week where he pleaded for the US not to prosecute Julian Assange and renewed an offer to grant asylum to the WikiLeaks founder.

  Lopez Obrador said he explained in the letter that Assange “did not cause anyone’s death, did not violate any human rights and that he exercised his freedom, and that arresting him would mean a permanent affront to freedom of expression.”

  

  The Mexican leader said that he previously offered asylum to Assange in a letter to President Trump at the end of his term and again at the beginning of the Biden administration. Last month, Lopez Obrador called Assange “the best journalist of our time.”

  Assange faces up to 175 years in prison for exposing US war crimes by publishing documents he received from whistleblower and former Army soldier Chelsea Manning. Lopez Obrador said earlier this month that if Assange is sentenced to life in prison, there should be a campaign to dismantle the statue of liberty.

  “If they bring him to the US and sentence to the ultimate penalty, to death in prison, then we will have to initiate a campaign for dismantling the Statue of Liberty, presented by the French, because it will no longer be a symbol of liberty,” he said.

  While Lopez Obrador is outspoken in his support for Assange, who is an Australian citizen, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is not. Albanese has rejected calls for him to demand that Washington drop its extradition request.

  Assange is currently being held in London’s Belmarsh Prison. British Home Secretary Priti Patel has approved the extradition of Assange to the US, and the WikiLeaks founder’s legal team lodged an appeal to her ruling on July 1.

  President López Obrador of Mexico delivered letter on Assange to Biden at their presidential meeting last week https://t.co/PN66oVi28F

  — WikiLeaks (@wikileaks) July 19, 2022

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  Assange is indicted on 17 counts of espionage and one count of conspiracy to commit a computer crime for his role in obtaining and publishing the leaks provided by Manning. But Assange used standard journalistic practices to obtain the information, something many human rights groups, journalist organizations, and UN officials have pointed out.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 07/19/2022 – 19:25

• Stellantis Ends Its Manufacturing Joint Venture In China
  Stellantis Ends Its Manufacturing Joint Venture In China

  Stop us if you’ve heard this one before, but another U.S. manufacturer is calling it quits on a joint venture in China. 

  Stellantis, the auto maker responsible for mainstays such as Dodge Ram pickup trucks, said that a “lack of progress” has caused it to abandon its joint venture with China’s Guangzhou Automobile Group Co. Ltd.

  The company is instead going to focus on importing vehicles to the country instead of manufacturing them there, the Wall Street Journal noted this week. Stellantis also has a joint venture in China with Dongfeng, to manufacture Peugeot and Citroën brands.

  Dongfeng Motor Group Co. Ltd. said recently it planned on selling its 3.16% stake in Stellantis, the Journal reported. 

  

  The company commented: “Stellantis intends to cooperate with GAC Group in an orderly termination of the joint venture formed in March 2010, which has been loss-making in recent years.”

  JV’s in China haven’t been easy for foreign manufacturers while local brands have flourished, the report says. Chinese domestic-brand vehicles saw sales up 18% during the first half of 2022, despite the country’s Covid lockdowns. Foreign JVs saw sales fall 6% over the same time. 

  At the beginning of this year, Stellantis had previously planned  to increase its stake in its partnership with GAC to 75% from 50%, the report says. GAC snubbed Stellantis the day they announced their intention, putting out a statement that said it “deeply regrets that this release is not agreed by us.”

  Chief Executive Officer of Stellantis Carlos Tavares has cited geopolitical risk as a reason “not to over-invest in China, particularly in owning factories,” the Journal wrote. 

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 07/19/2022 – 19:05

• 81-Year-Old Fauci Responds To Reports On Him Leaving, Says He's "Not Going To Retire"
  81-Year-Old Fauci Responds To Reports On Him Leaving, Says He’s “Not Going To Retire”

  Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

  White House chief medical adviser Anthony Fauci clarified Tuesday that he doesn’t plan to retire after he said Monday that he was going to step down from his government position at the end of President Joe Biden’s term.

  

  Fauci told Politico on Monday morning that he did not expect to stay in his current position when the term ends in January 2024. The move triggered speculation that Fauci would retire before then.

  “I’m not going to retire. No, no, I’m not going to retire. I may step down from my current position at some time,” Fauci told The Hill. 

  “I said a very innocent but true thing. I said whether it’s Donald Trump or it’s Joe Biden’s second term, I don’t intend to be in my current position in January of 2025,” he added.

  Fauci, 81, has headed the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease since 1984 but became a household name in early 2020 when he began delivering interviews to media outlets about the COVID-19 pandemic, essentially serving as the federal government’s chief pandemic spokesperson.

  “What happens between now and then I have not decided, but the one thing I do know is that I have other things that I want to do in a professional way that I want to have the capability—while I still have the energy and the passion to do them,” he told The Hill Tuesday.

  As the pandemic dragged on, Fauci became a polarizing figure for his often dire predictions about the trajectory of COVID-19’s spread in the United States. Meanwhile, he’s championed mask and vaccine mandates while dismissing assertions that those rules restrict people’s freedom.

  The U.S. Supreme Court in January struck down the Biden administration’s vaccine-or-test rule, saying that the Occupational Safety and Health Administration exceeded its authority.

  Several weeks ago, Fauci said he contracted COVID-19 despite having received four vaccine doses. Last week, Fauci raised more headlines when he told Fox News that COVID-19 vaccines “don’t protect overly well … against infection,” although he said that they instead protect individuals against severe disease and hospitalization.

  Also in the interview with Politico, Fauci also said the world will be living with COVID-19 for some time.

  “We’re in a pattern now. If somebody says, ‘You’ll leave when we don’t have COVID anymore,’ then I will be 105. I think we’re going to be living with this,” he said, adding, “What we have right now, I think we’re almost at a steady state.”

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 07/19/2022 – 18:45

• China Furious Over Reports Pelosi To Visit Taiwan In August
  China Furious Over Reports Pelosi To Visit Taiwan In August

  House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s planned trip to Taiwan has predictably sparked outrage in China, with Beijing slamming the potential trip as causing “grave harm” and threatening “forceful measures” if she goes through with it.

  She would be the first Speaker of the US House of Representatives – which is third in line to the US Presidency – to visit the country in 25 years after Republican speaker Newt Gingrich visited in 1997. In April she nearly sparked a major diplomatic row with China after it emerged she would stop over in Taiwan while on a southeast Asian trip. But (perhaps only too conveniently), she tested positive for Covid-19 days ahead of the expected tour, leading to cancelation altogether.

  

  Word of a rescheduled trip set for August has left Beijing furious. FT is citing “Six people familiar with the situation” who say “Pelosi would take a delegation to Taiwan in August.”

  During the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s daily briefing on Tuesday, spokesman Zhao Lijiang vowed “resolute and strong measures” if she goes through with it. He said a visit by the US House Speaker would “severely undermine China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, gravely impact the foundation of China-U.S. relations and send a seriously wrong signal to Taiwan independence forces.”

  “If the U.S. were to insist on going down the wrong path, China will take resolute and strong measures to safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Zhao added.

  The quick condemnation and scathing statements reminding Washington that it must stick by the ‘one China’ principle are similar to China’s reaction in April. Given that prior trip never materialized (again, due to her announced Covid diagnosis), she was able to quietly back out and many observers chalked up the entire planned Taiwan trip to “rumor” given neither the US nor Taipei side ever confirmed it.

  In these latest remarks Zhao didn’t indicate precisely what counter-US or counter-Taiwan steps China would take. It comes also amid Beijing demanding the Biden administration cancel a proposed 5th package of arms to Taiwan, totaling $108 million, and as Beijing is challenging the status of the Taiwan Strait as “international waters”. 

  If she really dares to visit Taiwan, it will be a major serious incident. She will be the enemy that divides China. She will experience a risky visit. She will also bear historical responsibility for possibly triggering a military conflict in the Taiwan Strait. pic.twitter.com/pNXIRvtX0W

  — Hu Xijin 胡锡进 (@HuXijin_GT) July 19, 2022

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  Some Chinese state-linked pundits are going so far as to warn that Pelosi’s visit could spark military conflict between Taiwan and China. Among them, former editor-in-chief of the Communist Party’s Global Times has blasted the “risky” visit for which she would “bear historical responsibility for possibly triggering military conflict in the Taiwan Strait.”

  So the question remains: will the 82-year old speaker go through with it? Or perhaps, she’ll conveniently come down with a last minute case of “Covid” again (maybe Monkeypox?); or possibly, she’ll be busy bailing out her husband Paul. The region is especially on edge given growing comparisons to the Ukraine war – a comparison which China has consistently rejected.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 07/19/2022 – 18:25

• Seven Major Effects Of COVID-19 On Parents, Students, & Schools
  Seven Major Effects Of COVID-19 On Parents, Students, & Schools

  Authored by Bruno Manno via RealClearEducation.com,

  COVID-19 disrupted American K-12 education, with calamitous consequences for young people. Here are seven realities that resulted from that calamity.

  

  Four describe the tragedy, and three explain what advocates and stakeholders are doing to overcome it.  

  1. Parents know that there are problems and want new solutions.

  More than two-thirds (69%) of parents say that they’re worried their child isn’t on track in school, almost twice as many as the 35% who were worried about this pre-pandemic. Nearly six in ten want schools to continue using statewide tests to show what students are learning so that schools will know where to focus assistance. Nearly two-thirds (63%) of parents worry about their child’s mental health. All this leads nearly six in ten (56%) to want schools to rethink how they educate children and create new ways to teach children.

  2.  COVID-19 led to much less student learning.

  Analysts at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) studied mathematics and reading test scores across the country, tracking what students learned using online instruction compared to what they learned in reopened schools. Online instruction was associated with growing achievement gaps, especially for black and Hispanic students attending high-poverty schools. The average student learning remotely lost the equivalent of 13 weeks of in-person instruction, a gap that reached 22 weeks for students in high-poverty schools. The average student in reopened schools lost between 7 and 10 weeks of in-person instruction. Other studies reach similar conclusions, including one that found pandemic learning loss greater than that experienced by New Orleans students after schools closed following Hurricane Katrina.

  3. COVID-19 changed young people’s college-going plans.

  The 2022 high school graduating class lived more than half their school time during the pandemic. Nearly 1 in 3 seniors (28%) have changed their post-high school plans since the pandemic began, up from 18% in a spring 2020 survey. Three out of four (74%) seniors report that they want to go to college, though they’re now facing new challenges. There are significant differences across student groups, with seniors who are Hispanic, black, and male less likely to want to go to college than those who were seniors in 2019.

  4. COVID-19 affected young people’s mental health.

  The Surgeon General issued a public advisory report with troubling information. Mental-health visits for children aged five to 11 increased by 24% compared to 2019, with visits for 12- to 17-year-olds rising almost 31%. The National Center for Education Statistics reports that since the start of the pandemic, 70% of public schools experienced an increase in the number of children seeking school mental-health services, with 76% of school staff voicing concerns about students showing signs of depression, anxiety, and trauma. The General Accounting Office found that during the 2020-21 school year a higher percentage of teachers using online or combining online and in-person learning reported that their students experienced learning difficulties than did teachers in an in-person environment.

  There are reasons for optimism. Here are three promising pathways to overcoming the COVID-19 learning calamity.

  5. Many parents responded to this calamity by voting with their feet.

  Parents enrolled children in new non-public school education settings, shrinking public school enrollment since 2020 by almost 1.3 million students (though some of this decline owes to decreasing birth rates and immigration). Parents enrolled their children in private and parochial schools, micro-schools, and learning pods, with homeschooling reaching record enrollment levels. In particular, large urban districts experienced a significant student exodus, especially those with lengthy periods of remote-only learning. For example, over the last two years, New York City schools lost around 64,000 students; Los Angeles around 43,000 students; and Chicago around 25,000 students.

  6. State and local public school leaders are responding to the calamity.

  States and school districts have received $190 billion in federal pandemic education funding. Money is being used to implement programs that accelerate student learning, including evidence-based ones like intensive small-group tutoring; competency-based instruction that develops specific student knowledge and skills; summer school; extra instruction in core subjects; lengthening the school year; and offering modest financial incentives and other rewards to students, parents, and teachers. 

  7. Policymakers are creating new options for parents and young people.  

  Elected state leaders have expanded school-choice options or created new ones, including open enrollment across school district boundaries, vouchers, tax-credit scholarships, and education savings accounts. This has produced a more pluralistic K-12 system with more educational options for families and students.

  School closures produced an education and mental-health calamity for young people. The debate about whether school closures were mistaken will continue. The onus is now with K-12 advocates and stakeholders to do whatever it takes to support families and students in their efforts to make up lost ground.

  *  *  *

  Bruno V. Manno, a former U.S. Assistant Secretary of Education, is senior advisor to the Walton Family Foundation’s education program. Some of the research described in this piece was supported financially by the Foundation.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 07/19/2022 – 18:05

• GoFundMe For Suspected Gunman's Family Hits $20,000
  GoFundMe For Suspected Gunman’s Family Hits $20,000

  GoFundMe has allowed a fundraiser for the family of a now-deceased Minneapolis shooting suspect to reach $20,000 – despite the donation platform removing similar campaigns for Kyle Rittenhouse and Jose Alba – both of whom acted in self-defense.

  

  Andrew Tekle Sundberg was fatally wounded by police after a six-hour standoff in a Minneapolis apartment complex last Thursday after he allegedly fired bullets into the apartment of a single mother of two while she was cooking dinner, KARE11 reports.

  According to the search warrant, which was issued Thursday morning, while attempting to evacuate the apartment building, “officers started taking fire,” prompting them to exit the building. At that point, Minneapolis police requested assistance from the Minneapolis SWAT Team, the warrant reads.

  When the SWAT Team arrived, two snipers set up on the roof of a nearby apartment building, according to court documents. “At some point during the standoff, the two snipers shot the male subject,” the search warrant reads. The man, later identified as Sundberg, was transported the HCMC where he later died. Minneapolis city officials identified the two officers as Aaron Pearson and Zachary Seraphine.

  Of note, the GoFundMe page for Sundberg had initially raised more than the victim’s GoFundMe, however after a tweet by Rebecca Brannon (@RebsBrannon) went viral, the fundraiser for the woman, Arabella Foss-Yarbrough, hit more than $60,000 as of this writing.

  The GoFundMe for shooter Andrew Tekle Sundberg now has over $15K – out raising his victim, a single mother who hid with her two sons in her bedroom as he shot bullets through the walls of her apartment.

  Two Minneapolis police snipers shot Sundberg after a multi-hour standoff. pic.twitter.com/VrGDE5YPc0

  — Rebecca Brannon (@RebsBrannon) July 17, 2022

  Some other photos of Andrew Tekle Sundberg – his parents have retained attorneys Ben Crump and Jeff Storms.

  The BCA says they’re reviewing police body camera video, but the videos have not been released. pic.twitter.com/JpyqbtWgX8

  — Rebecca Brannon (@RebsBrannon) July 17, 2022

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  update: after posting this thread late last night, donations came flooding through to help and now double the amount what those were asking for in order to help single mother Yarbrough.
  Great to see. Glad word spread on this.

  — Rebecca Brannon (@RebsBrannon) July 17, 2022

  In the family’s GoFundMe, Subdberg is described as “a brother, uncle, son, friend, talented artist, hilarious, energetic human.” Donations are promised to go towards his funeral expenses, food and other aid for his family, the Daily Caller reports.

  In the past, GoFundMe has banned fundraising campaigns for people accused of being involved in violent crimes that the platform found to be in violation of its policies. The site banned some fundraisers seeking to help fund Kyle Rittenhouse’s legal defense prior to his acquittal and took down a fundraiser for Jose Alba, a New York bodega worker who allegedly stabbed and killed a man in self-defense, according to Newsweek.

  GoFundMe’s terms of service say that it does not allow fundraisers for the “legal defense of alleged crimes associated with hate, violence, harassment, bullying, discrimination, terrorism, or intolerance of any kind.” The terms of service also say the platform keeps the prerogative to prohibit “any other activity that GoFundMe may deem, in its sole discretion, to … be unacceptable or objectionable.”

  One donor paid $5 to Sundberg’s page just to be able to tell the family that they should donate the proceeds of the fundraiser to the victim’s family.

  Well said statement by this donor. pic.twitter.com/eBQRzcNRKS

  — SCMovementConservative (@kmadams88) July 17, 2022

  GoFundMe told the NY Post: “The fundraiser, ‘T.S. Family Funds,’ states donations will go toward funeral, food, and family expenses,” adding “Fundraisers for these types of expenses are allowed under GoFundMe’s terms of service.”

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  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 07/19/2022 – 17:45

• China's Fuel Exports Plunge
  China’s Fuel Exports Plunge

  By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com

  China’s exports of gasoline and diesel slumped in the first half of 2022, per customs data out on Monday, as Chinese authorities continued to work to reduce overseas sales of fuels and allocated lower export quotas to refiners. 

  

  Gasoline exports slumped by 42 percent annually in the first half of this year compared to the same period of 2021, according to Chinese customs data cited by Reuters. Diesel exports crumbled by an even larger percentage—they were down by 84 percent between January and July compared to the first half of 2021.   

  This month, China’s fuel exports are expected to rebound after the government has recently allocated a new batch of export quotas to refiners, according to industry consultancy JLC quoted by Bloomberg.

  The latest batch of export quotas has been issued, but combined with other quotas so far this year, overall export quotas from China are much lower than last year’s.

  At the beginning of this month, China issued the latest batch of fuel export quotas for refiners, and total quotas so far this year are 39 percent lower than the collective quotas this time last year—a sign that Chinese fuel exports are unlikely to ease the tight fuel market globally.

  The Chinese authorities have approved the latest batch for a total of 5 million tons, Reuters reported, citing sources. That would be enough for the refiners given quotas to make money with sales on the export market, but not enough to ease the global crunch in fuel supply.

  China started this year by considerably reducing the allowances for fuel exports in the first export quota batch for 2022, signaling its intention to limit fuel sales abroad and curb excessive refinery output.

  Exports were reportedly limited in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as Chinese authorities were said to have asked state refiners in the country to consider halting diesel and gasoline exports in April due to heightened concerns about oil supply.

  Chinese diesel and gasoline exports so far this year have been well below last year’s, while COVID-related lockdowns hurt demand in the spring, swelling domestic Chinese inventories.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 07/19/2022 – 17:25

• Former NYC Mayor Bill De Blasio Quits NY Congressional Race
  Former NYC Mayor Bill De Blasio Quits NY Congressional Race

  Former NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio has tapped out of the New York 10th district congressional race, after he said in a Tuesday tweet that it’s clear “people are looking for another option.”

  It’s clear the people of #NY10 are looking for another option and I respect that. Time for me to leave electoral politics and focus on other ways to serve. I am really grateful for all the people I met, the stories I heard and the many good souls who helped out. Thank you all! pic.twitter.com/gpt6V6WLUf

  — Bill de Blasio (@BilldeBlasio) July 19, 2022

  De Blasio thanked his campaign staff from his current and previous runs, and gave no indication of what his next move might be – though he said it was time for him to bow out of electoral politics.

  The former Mayor has dropped steadily in polls since the beginning of the pandemic – turning down a bid for NY Governor after polling far behind Gov. Kathy Hochul in the Democratic primary.

  Democratic Political strategist and former Pete Buttigieg 2020 campaign advisor Lis Smith trashed former New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio during a Monday interview with MSNBC host Nicolle Wallace. 

  During a segment of MSNBC’s “Deadline: White House,” Wallace read an excerpt from Smith’s new political memoir titled, “Any Given Tuesday: A Political Love Story,” in which she scathingly recounted the time she worked for de Blasio, up until her fired her. -Fox News

  Last October, the New York Times reported that a city investigation revealed de Blasio misused public resources for his own political and personal benefit – and had not reimbursed the city for security costs related to his presidential campaign.

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  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 07/19/2022 – 17:05

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• Germany To Re-Impose Mask Mandate In September Despite COVID Wave Already "Losing Momentum"
  Germany To Re-Impose Mask Mandate In September Despite COVID Wave Already “Losing Momentum”

  Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

  Germany is set to re-impose its mask mandate in September despite the summer COVID wave already “losing momentum,” indicating such rules are being made permanent.

  

  Justice Minister Marco Buschmann announced that Germans would have to mask up this autumn when indoors and that the rules would be in place throughout the winter.

  Ludicrously, such measures are being finalized months in advance when nobody even knows what the COVID situation will be later in the year.

  Buschmann also acknowledged that the summer COVID wave in the country is already “losing momentum,” but Germans will be forced to wear face coverings anyway.

  The measures will be sent to parliament in September, where they are likely to be voted into law.

  “The effectiveness of masks for individuals indoors is undisputed,” said Buschmann.

  “That’s why a form of mask requirement indoors will certainly play a role in our concept.”

  On the contrary, mask rules are being re-imposed across the western world despite no evidence that they are effective in stopping COVID.

  The UK government’s own investigation found that the evidence for the efficacy of face masks stopping the spread of COVID-19 in schools is “not conclusive.”

  We previously reported on the comments of UK government SAGE adviser Dr Colin Axon, who dismissed masks as “comfort blankets” that do virtually nothing, noting that the COVID-19 virus particle is up to 5,000 times smaller than the holes in the mask.

  “The small sizes are not easily understood but an imperfect analogy would be to imagine marbles fired at builders’ scaffolding, some might hit a pole and rebound, but obviously most will fly through,” Axon said.

  A study in Denmark involving 6,000 participants also found that “there was no statistically significant difference between those who wore masks and those who did not when it came to being infected by Covid-19,” the Spectator reported.

  A study conducted in Germany also found that the reading ability of children has plummeted compared to pre-COVID times thanks to lockdown policies that led to the closure of schools.

  Adults wearing masks has led to serious cognitive development disorders in children.

  Speech therapist Jaclyn Theek said that mask wearing during the pandemic has caused a 364% increase in patient referrals of babies and toddlers.

  A speech therapist says her clinic has seen a “364% increase in patient referrals of babies and toddlers”.

  “It’s very important kids do see your face to learn, so they’re watching your mouth.”

  What the hell have we done?!

  End this cruel insanity. pic.twitter.com/DN6J4yQfju

  — Darren Grimes (@darrengrimes_) January 26, 2022

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  *  *  *

  Brand new merch now available! Get it at https://www.pjwshop.com/

  In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch. I need you to sign up for my free newsletter here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown. Get early access, exclusive content and behinds the scenes stuff by following me on Locals.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 07/19/2022 – 02:00

• Soros-Backed Los Angeles DA Stops Notifying Victims Of Attacker's Parole Hearings
  Soros-Backed Los Angeles DA Stops Notifying Victims Of Attacker’s Parole Hearings

  Authored by Jamie Joseph via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Los Angeles District Attorney George Gascón is dissolving an office unit responsible for notifying crime victims and their families when their assailant has parole hearings.

  

  Made up of victims’ advocates, the Parole Unit—also known as the Lifer Unit—will be disbanded by the end of the year.

  “While a victim has a right to be notified, they also have a right NOT to be contacted,” Gascón’s office said in a statement. “Lawyers in the parole unit have been using Victim Service Representatives, paralegals, and Bureau of Investigation resources to contact victims and their next of kin who have not requested to be notified of parole hearings.”

  An email sent to prosecutors in the unit stated that Gascón’s office has determined that it is “‘not appropriate’ for the LADA to notify victims of crime and victim next of kin of those that were murdered that parole hearings are scheduled for the inmates that harmed them and their loved ones.”

  The office will continue sending out notifications for cases assigned through October 2022, according to the email.

  The DA’s office said the unit was already being downsized under former DA Jackie Lacey, and victims will still have access to free supportive services through the office’s victim services representatives.

  However, Diana Teran—recently promoted Director of the Parole Division and oversees all resentencing cases—issued an order that contradicted Gascón’s initial policy, stating “this Office will continue to meet its obligation to notify and advise victims under California law.”

  Immediately after he assumed office in December 2020, Gascón sparked controversy when he issued a directive (pdf) to remove prosecutors from attending parole hearings, saying that a prosecutor’s input and “the crime of conviction is of limited value in considering parole suitability years or decades later.” He also encouraged prosecutors to support granting parole after felons fulfilled their mandatory sentence minimum.

  Attorney Kathleen Cady—one of several former prosecutors who are providing pro bono assistance to crime victims in response to Gascón’s policies—said in an emailed statement that the district attorney’s latest move is “indefensible.”

  “This systematic and pervasive violation of victims’ rights appears to be motivated by one goal: to release as many murderers, child molesters and rapists as possible from prison,” Cady said.

  “Keeping victims informed and protecting the people of California and victims’ rights just seems to get in the way.”

  Los Angeles Deputy District Attorney Ryan Erlich wrote on Twitter this week that Gascón “has done a bunch of terrible things since Dec. 2020. But turning his back on the families of victims of violent crime is beyond callous. If he had EVER tried a homicide, he would know that we have a moral duty to, at least, support those folks at parole hearings.”

  Elected on a promise to implement progressive criminal justice reform, Gascón could be facing a recall election in November, as almost 150,000 more signatures than the 566,857 required have been submitted to the LA County Clerk’s office for verification last week. The county clerk has until Aug. 17 to count and verify all signatures.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 07/18/2022 – 23:55

• Pentagon Nears Deal With Lockheed For 375 F-35 Stealth Fighter Jets
  Pentagon Nears Deal With Lockheed For 375 F-35 Stealth Fighter Jets

  The Pentagon is reportedly close to securing 375 F-35 stealth fighter jets from Lockheed Martin Corp., Reuters reported on Monday afternoon, citing three sources.

  The sources said the 375 fifth-generation warplanes would be delivered over three years. Reuters wasn’t clear which variant of the F-35 (the conventional takeoff and landing (CTOL) F-35A, the short takeoff and vertical-landing (STOVL) F-35B, and or the carrier-based (CV/CATOBAR) F-35C) was part of the deal. 

  

  Recently, Lockheed said that rising inflation would boost the cost of all three F35 variants. In 2019, the Pentagon inked a deal with the defense contractor F-35As for around $78 million, F-35Bs for $101 million, and F-35Cs for $94 million. 

  

  There’s no timeline on when negotiations between the government and Lockheed will formalize the contract and announce the massive deal worth approximately $30 billion.

  So much for “world peace” as the US continues to modernize its fleet of fighter jets and strategically place them in key US allies, such as Germany, Japan, and South Korea, creating a ‘friends circle’ of fifth-generation fighters around Russia and China. 

  PENTAGON AND LOCKHEED NEAR APPROX $30 BILLION DEAL FOR AROUND 375 F-35 FIGHTER JETS – SOURCES

  Guess we won’t be getting “world peace” any time soon

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 18, 2022

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  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 07/18/2022 – 23:35

• Stefanik Criticizes Jan. 6 Committee For Keeping Pelosi 'Off-Limits' From Probe
  Stefanik Criticizes Jan. 6 Committee For Keeping Pelosi ‘Off-Limits’ From Probe

  Authored by Frank Fang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  House GOP Conference Chairwoman Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) has called out Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), chair of the Jan. 6 Committee, questioning why House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has remained “off-limits” from the committee’s scrutiny over the events that led up to violence on Jan. 6, 2021.

  “You have only one office that’s off-limits to investigation and that office is Nancy Pelosi’s office,” Stefanik told Fox News’ “Life, Liberty and Levin” on July 16.

  “Bennie Thompson said at the start of this witch hunt that everything is fair game,” she added, “except for the speaker of the House’s office.”

  

  In October 2021, Thompson told CNN that “nobody is off-limits” from the committee’s investigation, including former President Donald Trump.

  “[W]e know that the speaker’s office was made aware of potential threats, potential violence that day. They failed to do their job to ensure the Capitol Police had the support they needed to secure the Capitol,” Stefanik said.

  “And they have not turned over the communication with the sergeant at arms office.”

  

  Pelosi is facing questions about claims that she rejected a preemptive National Guard presence ahead of the breach of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. According to former U.S. Capitol Police Chief Steven Sund, he requested that the National Guard be brought in to ensure the Jan. 6 rally went smoothly. However, Sund claims that Sergeant-at-Arms Paul Irving, overseen by Pelosi, rejected the request, citing concerns over the “optics” of deploying Guard personnel in the city.

  Sund’s requests were eventually denied or postponed six times, according to his interview with The Washington Post.

  “The American people deserve to have that information,” Stefanik said.

  She added the Jan. 6 committee is “a waste of taxpayer dollars.”

  “It’s not dealing with the crises that are actually impacting and hurting the American people resulting from Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi’s failed policies,” she said.

  The Jan. 6 committee consists of seven Democrats and two Republicans, all of them having voted to impeach Trump. Last year, GOP House Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) withdrew all of his picks for the committee after Pelosi rejected two of his selections, Reps. Jim Banks (R-Ind.) and Jim Jordan (R-Ohio). Pelosi then picked Reps. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) and Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) to sit on the Democrat-dominated panel.

  In June, Trump told Punchbowl News that it’s “not even a question” that McCarthy should have put GOP lawmakers on the panel.

  “Well, I think in retrospect, I think it would have been very smart to put [Republicans on the committee] and again, I wasn’t involved in it from a standpoint so I never looked at it too closely. But I think it would have been good if we had representation,” Trump said.

  

  Trump added that it “would’ve been great” if Banks and Jordan were on the panel.

  “But when Pelosi wrongfully didn’t allow them, we should’ve picked other people. We have a lot of good people in the Republican Party,” Trump said.

  Stefanik said at a press conference in June that the Jan. 6 committee “is not about seeking the truth.”

  “It is a smear campaign against President Donald Trump, against Republican members of Congress, and against Trump voters across this country,” Stefanik said.

  Also in June, Banks took to Twitter to warn that the committee was “NEVER about addressing security failures at the Capitol or ensuring something like Jan 6 never happens again.”

  “Has ALWAYS been a witch hunt and a Trojan horse effort to advance radical left wing agenda like abolishing Electoral College,” he added. “Don’t be fooled!”

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 07/18/2022 – 23:15

• Jewelers Report $100 Million In Losses After 'Italian Job'-Style Armored Truck Robbery
  Jewelers Report $100 Million In Losses After ‘Italian Job’-Style Armored Truck Robbery

  California thieves have graduated from ‘smash and grabs‘ at luxury retail stores and looting rail cars stacked with consumer goods to now pulling off an ‘Italian Job’-style robbery.

  A Brink’s armored truck was loaded with millions of dollars of jewelry on July 10, following an exhibition hosted by the International Gem and Jewelry Show in San Mateo, south of the Bay Area, the group’s director Brandy Swanson told local CBS-TV affiliate KPIX.

  

  Swanson said the Brink’s truck was headed to another event on July 11 at the Pasadena Convention Center, northeast of downtown Los Angeles, when 25 and 30 bags of jewelry were stolen from the truck. She said, “18 victims reported more than $100 million in losses.” 

  Laura Eimiller, the spokeswoman for the FBI in Los Angeles, said Brink’s armored truck was robbed in the desert city of Lancaster in northern Los Angeles County while en route to its destination at the convention center. 

  Dana Callahan, a spokeswoman for Brink’s, disputed the $100 million value of stolen property and said it’s more like $10 million. 

  Swanson said the discrepancy between the dollar amount stolen is because some traveling vendors underinsure to save money: 

  “That’s where the discrepancy comes in. These are mom-and-pop operators,” she said. “They’re devastated. Some of these people have lost their entire livelihoods.”

  Vendors claim the figure is more like $150 million. One jeweler said their “19 karat yellow gold with over 100 carats of multicolored sapphire” piece was among the stolen jewels. 

  

  Some vendors don’t have a showroom and depend on trade shows to make a living. 

  “My life. That’s how I live. That’s how I feed my kids,” the vendor continued. 

   

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 07/18/2022 – 22:55

• Worksheet At Boston High School Suggests Assassinations As Legitimate Form Of Resisting 'Oppression'
  Worksheet At Boston High School Suggests Assassinations As Legitimate Form Of Resisting ‘Oppression’

  Authored by J.M. Phelps via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  At Charlestown High School in the city of Boston, certain teachers instructing students learning English who recently arrived in the United States may be indoctrinating these children to incite violence as a form of resistance to their alleged oppressors, according to experts.

  

  The “classroom files” of three of the school’s teachers in the Sheltered English Immersion program are currently available for download on the Boston Teachers Union (BTU) website. These teachers teach Humanities to ninth- and tenth-grade students who have recently arrived in the country from El Salvador, Honduras, Guatemala, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and China, the website states.

  One part of the curriculum profiled on the website involves “notes and assignments around oppression, resistance, and narrative structure.”

  “It includes detailed note-taking sheets and powerpoints on institutional, interpersonal, and internalized oppression,” the BTU website states. “Students are invited to critically examine when certain forms of resistance might be appropriate.”

  A worksheet titled “Forms of Resistance” is included as an example of what’s taught in the course.

  The first page of the worksheet identifies three types of oppression as “Instituional [sic],” “Interpresonal [sic],” and “Internalized,” and then lists examples of each. One example of oppression at the institutional level was identified as, “Trump builds a wall on the border so it is harder for Latinos to enter the US.” At the interpersonal level, an example was, “A husband tells his wife she must stay home to cook and clean.” An example of oppression at the internalized level included, “An Asian girl hates her eyes, she thinks she is ugly so she gets surgery to change them.”

  Students were next asked to “list different forms of resistance for each level of oppression.”

  The following pages of the worksheet with the heading “Forms of Resistance Notes” contained 11 rows identifying 11 types of resistance that could be employed to end certain forms of oppression. The column on the far left contains pictures identifying each type of resistance and students are made to name in the type of resistance in the next column. Next, students are meant to fill in the blanks in the column that provides the “explanation” for each form of resistance. In the last section, students are to choose which of the three levels of oppression—institutional, interpersonal, or internalized—that the type of resistance was “most effective at ending.”

  Alongside peaceful protest methods such as boycotts, sit-ins, and petitions, the worksheet also contains three images are appear to portray violent forms of revolt: riots, shown by masked protestors wearing all black throwing projectiles including what appears to be a flare; fights, depicted by a cartoon image of two people brawling; and political assassinations, shown by an image of President Richard Nixon as a target of crosshairs.

  ‘Indoctrination’

  Parental rights advocates expressed alarm at what was apparently being taught to English as a Second Language students at the Boston high school.

  Rebecca Friedrichs, the founder of advocacy group For Kids & Country and author of “Standing up to Goliath: Battling State and National Teachers’ Unions for the Heart and Soul of our Kids and Country” said that a teacher for 28 years and a parent of two children she was “disgusted” by the worksheet that she described as “damaging and dangerous.”

  “These English language learners [in these classrooms] are likely new immigrants to the country, coming to this country to experience freedom, [but in Boston] they’ve run smack dab into Marxist indoctrinators posing as educators,” she said.

  “Schools are meant for educating children, not indoctrinating them in radical ideology,” she added.

  The worksheet is “full of lies,” Friedrichs said, adding that teachers are using these lies to indoctrinate children.

  Alex Newman, award-winning international journalist and executive director of the advocacy group Public School Exit, agreed, saying, “the material was clearly designed to indoctrinate children into seeing themselves as victims of oppression.”

  Newman was most alarmed by the worksheet’s examples of violent resistance that he said implied a need to “overthrow” anyone who is allegedly responsible for the oppression. “They seem to be promoting revolt and resistance to legitimate forms of authority,” he said. Newman is also a contributor to The Epoch Times.

  The goal of such teachings, Newman said, is to prime children to accept illegitimate forms of authority, and encourage them to engage in violence to achieve those ends.

  “Legitimate authorities must be brought down if they want to impose new authorities,” Newman said. And this “indoctrination program,” he said, is “an extension of that same lawless agenda.”

  Justifying Violence

  The worksheet’s attempt to justify violence could be seen through the picture of three individuals dressed in black throwing various objects, including a flare. Both experts noted that the image alludes to groups like Antifa, a far-left anarchist movement that seeks the overthrow of capitalism.

  The explanation listed alongside the picture on the worksheet says, “Protesting or marching with [blank].” Friedrichs took issue with the characterization, saying “they’re clearly engaged in violence, throwing bottles and more.”

  In a second example depicting crosshairs on the chest of President Nixon, Friedrichs said that this type of image is “extremely dangerous in the mind of a child.”

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 07/18/2022 – 22:35

• Scaramucci's SkyBridge Capital Suspends Redemptions In One Of Its Crypto Funds
  Scaramucci’s SkyBridge Capital Suspends Redemptions In One Of Its Crypto Funds

  Voyager, 3 Arrows Capital, Celsius… is Skybridge Next?

  Anthony Scaramucci’s Skybridge Capital suspended redemptions in one of its funds after sharp declines in stocks and cryptocurrencies, Bloomberg reported.

  The Legion Strategies fund suspended redemptions because private companies, which are harder to sell, now make up about 20% of the portfolio, one of the people said. The fund is one of Skybridge’s smaller offerings, which farms out most of its roughly $230 million of assets to hedge fund managers. According to Bloomberg FTX, the crypto exchange co-founded by billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried, is among the fund’s private investments.  

  The Legion Strategies fund gained exposure to digital assets through other funds managed by Skybridge, including vehicles focused on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Algorand, according to a regulatory filing. As of Feb. 28, almost a quarter of Legion’s net assets were invested in such fund.

  Scaramucci – who returned to money management after spending all of 11 days in the White House as the Trump administration’s communications director when he was angling for a nod from Trump to sell his firm to China’s now defunct HNA (the sale ultimately fell through) – made a big push into crypto, a move that helped Skybridge’s performance last year and has crushed it this year when an index of the 100 largest digital assets has tumbled 56% in 2022.  

  

  Skybridge runs a larger fund-of-funds, the Multi-Adviser Hedge Fund Portfolios, which managed about $2 billion as of March 31, according to a separate filing. That fund fell about 5.5% for the year through March 31.

  Redemptions for that fund are made through a tender offer by Skybridge. The firm told clients it will buy back 10% of the fund’s shares at the end of September, the next time investors are allowed to pull money, one of the people said.

  It’s not the first time the Mooch has faced a run on his fund: in April 2020, Reuters reported that investors in SkyBridge Capital asked for hundreds of millions of dollars back after the fund suffered a 23% loss in March when investments made by its debt-focused hedge fund managers soured. Scaramucci wrote in a letter to clients that he was “embarrassed” by the loss.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 07/18/2022 – 22:15

• Shrinking Population Is Another Problem For China's Housing Market
  Shrinking Population Is Another Problem For China’s Housing Market

  By Ye Xie, Bloomberg Markets Live commentator and reporter

  The wave of mortgage-payment boycotts has spurred China’s regulators into action. Beijing may be able to prevent the issue from morphing into a bigger crisis. In the bigger picture, however, the housing downturn will be a multi-decade process amid a shrinking population.

  After a growing number of homebuyers refused to pay mortgages on stalled home projects, regulators have moved to restore market confidence. Mitigating measures being considered include allowing homeowners to temporarily halt mortgage payments and urging local governments and banks to provide more funding to developers, Bloomberg reported.

  The authorities may quell this latest disruption in the beleaguered property market since the number of affected mortgages remains small, for now. But it’s clear that this housing downturn will remain a drag on the economy for years to come. The high-turnover, pre-sale model relied upon by developers has been severely impaired, while households are already deep in debt.

  Moreover, demographic headwinds have been gathering momentum since the pandemic. The United Nations’ new population forecast released earlier this month — the first in three years — suggests that China is poised to cede the status as the world’s most-populous nation to India next year. The UN projected that China’s population will peak this year, instead of in 2031 as previously estimated. The population is forecast to shrink by 90 million – more than the current population of Germany today — by 2050.

  

  Even this forecast may be too optimistic, according to Julian Evans-Pritchard, a China economist at Capital Economics. The UN predicts China’s fertility rate bottomed out in 2021 and is set to rise slowly for the next 30 years. Evans-Pritchard said that’s “implausible” and fertility is more likely to decline, as it did in other Asian countries in recent years. He pointed out that the UN has failed to predict the drop in China’s fertility rate over the past few years.

  A shrinking population brings all sorts of problems, including slower economic growth and a larger pension shortage. It’s also a reminder that the property market has turned from a tailwind to headwind for the Chinese economy for years to come. The demographic changes mean that China’s housing demand is likely to fall from 8 million units per year in the 2010s to only 1.5 million by 2050,  Goldman Sachs estimated last year.

  

  It’s a long winter ahead for China’s property market.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 07/18/2022 – 21:55

• Visualized: Lithium Ion Battery Vs. Hydrogen Fuel Cell
  Visualized: Lithium Ion Battery Vs. Hydrogen Fuel Cell

  Since the introduction of the Nissan Leaf (2010) and Tesla Model S (2012), battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) have become the primary focus of the automotive industry.

  This structural shift is moving at an incredible rate – in China, 3 million BEVs were sold in 2021, up from 1 million the previous year. Meanwhile, in the U.S., the number of models available for sale is expected to double by 2024.

  In order to meet global climate targets, however, the International Energy Agency claims that the auto industry will require 30 times more minerals per year. Many fear that this could put a strain on supply.

  “The data shows a looming mismatch between the world’s strengthened climate ambitions and the availability of critical minerals.”

  – FATIH BIROL, IEA

  Thankfully, BEVs are not the only solution for decarbonizing transportation. In this infographic, Visual Capitalist’s Marcus Lu and Miranda Smith explain how the fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) works.

  

  How Does Hydrogen Fuel Cell Work?

  FCEVs are a type of electric vehicle that produces no emissions (aside from the environmental cost of production). The main difference is that BEVs contain a large battery to store electricity, while FCEVs create their own electricity by using a hydrogen fuel cell.

  

  Let’s go over the functions of the major FCEV components.

  Battery

  First is the lithium-ion battery, which stores electricity to power the electric motor. In an FCEV, the battery is smaller because it’s not the primary power source. For general context, the Model S Plaid contains 7,920 lithium-ion cells, while the Toyota Mirai FCEV contains 330.

  Hydrogen Fuel Tank

  FCEVs have a fuel tank that stores hydrogen in its gas form. Liquid hydrogen can’t be used because it requires cryogenic temperatures (−150°C or −238°F). Hydrogen gas, along with oxygen, are the two inputs for the hydrogen fuel cell.

  Fuel Cell Stack and Motor

  The fuel cell uses hydrogen gas to generate electricity. To explain the process in layman’s terms, hydrogen gas passes through the cell and is split into protons (H+) and electrons (e-).

  Protons pass through the electrolyte, which is a liquid or gel material. Electrons are unable to pass through the electrolyte, so they take an external path instead. This creates an electrical current to power the motor.

  Exhaust

  At the end of the fuel cell’s process, the electrons and protons meet together and combine with oxygen. This causes a chemical reaction that produces water (H2O), which is then emitted out of the exhaust pipe.

  Which Technology is Winning?

  As you can see from the table below, most automakers have shifted their focus towards BEVs. Notably missing from the BEV group is Toyota, the world’s largest automaker.

  

  Hydrogen fuel cells have drawn criticism from notable figures in the industry, including Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess.

  Green hydrogen is needed for steel, chemical, aero,… and should not end up in cars. Far too expensive, inefficient, slow and difficult to rollout and transport.

  – HERBERT DIESS, CEO, VOLKSWAGEN GROUP

  Toyota and Hyundai are on the opposing side, as both companies continue to invest in fuel cell development. The difference between them, however, is that Hyundai (and sister brand Kia) has still released several BEVs.

  This is a surprising blunder for Toyota, which pioneered hybrid vehicles like the Prius. It’s reasonable to think that after this success, BEVs would be a natural next step. As Wired reports, Toyota placed all of its chips on hydrogen development, ignoring the fact that most of the industry was moving a different way. Realizing its mistake, and needing to buy time, the company has resorted to lobbying against the adoption of EVs.

  Confronted with a losing hand, Toyota is doing what most large corporations do when they find themselves playing the wrong game—it’s fighting to change the game.

  – WIRED

  Toyota is expected to release its first BEV, the bZ4X crossover, for the 2023 model year—over a decade since Tesla launched the Model S.

  Challenges to Fuel Cell Adoption

  Several challenges are standing in the way of widespread FCEV adoption.

  One is performance, though the difference is minor. In terms of maximum range, the best FCEV (Toyota Mirai) was EPA-rated for 402 miles, while the best BEV (Lucid Air) received 505 miles.

  Two greater issues are 1) hydrogen’s efficiency problem, and 2) a very limited number of refueling stations. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, there are just 48 hydrogen stations across the entire country. 47 are located in California, and 1 is located in Hawaii.

  On the contrary, BEVs have 49,210 charging stations nationwide, and can also be charged at home. This number is sure to grow, as the Biden administration has allocated $5 billion for states to expand their charging networks.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 07/18/2022 – 21:35

• Democrats' Second Amendment 'Syndrome' Plan: Plotting The Next Big Fight Over Gun Rights
  Democrats’ Second Amendment ‘Syndrome’ Plan: Plotting The Next Big Fight Over Gun Rights

  Authored by Jonathan Turley,

  Below is my column in the Hill on the next round of litigation over the Second Amendment. New York and other states quickly moved to exploit the concurrence of Justice Brett Kavanaugh (who was joined by Chief Justice John Roberts) that state officials believe contains a loophole for greater gun limitations based not on the weapons but the places where they can be taken.

  

  Here is the column:

  In the movie “The Incredibles,” the villainous character “Syndrome” reveals a plan to make everyone a superhero. Syndrome’s motive is hardly altruistic: He hated superheroes and “with everyone super, no one will be.” Democratic leaders seem to be planning their own Syndrome plan for the Second Amendment — to make everywhere a special or “sensitive place” so that few places outside the home are protected by the constitutional right.

  The recent decision in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association, Inc. v. Bruen was one of the most significant victories for the Second Amendment in the history of the Supreme Court. It was the latest defeat for the State of New York, which — having supplied a series of dubious state laws that have served to expand individual protections under the Constitution — has been the greatest gift to gun owners since the invention of the revolver.

  Right on cue, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) promised Syndrome-style legislation within an hour of the release of the Bruen decision. To make matters worse, Hochul went on television to say in a mocking tone that they would just come up with a long list of sensitive places.

  Hochul and others are relying on a concurrence in Bruen by Justice Brett Kavanaugh, who was joined by Chief Justice John Roberts. Kavanaugh reaffirmed the language in the 2008 decision in Heller v. District of Columbia that the Second Amendment was “neither a regulatory straightjacket nor a regulatory blank check.” States and the federal government could still adopt some restrictions on firearms. He specifically noted that the list of “sensitive places” referenced in the earlier case was not “exhaustive.”

  Kavanaugh’s limiting language was immediately taken as a license to bar guns by redefining places where they might be carried.

  New York’s Concealed Carry Improvement Act passed 43-20 and has elements that are ripe for constitutional challenge. However, it was the list that was so striking; indeed, it is hard to come up with a place that would not be declared special or sensitive. The list would seem to cover most areas outside of the home, including government buildings; any location providing health, behavioral health or chemical dependence care or services; any place of worship or religious observation; libraries; public playgrounds; public parks; zoos; the location of any state-funded or -licensed programs; educational institutions both in elementary and higher education; any vehicle used for public transportation; all public transit including airports and bus terminals; bars and restaurants; entertainment, gaming and sporting events and venues; polling places; any public sidewalk or public area restricted for a special event, and protests or rallies. That includes simply passing through Times Square.

  Montgomery County, Maryland, officials have proposed to bar the legal right to carry firearms “in or within 100 yards of a place of public assembly.”

  Other states like California are moving to bar permitted gun owners from carrying guns into any school grounds, college and university campuses, government and judicial buildings, medical facilities, public transit, public parks, playgrounds, public demonstrations and any place where alcohol is sold.

  These states believe they have an ally in Roberts. The chief justice has been criticized in the past for embracing rights while creating avenues for their circumvention. The most obvious example is his opinion in National Federation of Independent Business v. Sebelius, finding that the individual mandate of ObamaCare violated federalism but then saying that it did not matter if it is simply called a tax (which no party had done).

  These states are now hoping Roberts and Kavanaugh will do the same thing with gun rights in staunchly defending the individual right to carry a gun unless states simply define a wide array of places as “gun-free.” It is not the gun but the place that’s driving the exclusion.

  The problem is that Hochul and others may have been too open in gaming the opinion.

  Roberts is the ultimate incrementalist and institutionalist. As shown in his sole concurrence in the abortion decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health, he is not afraid to stand alone in seeking a moderate compromise. However, he is not someone who relishes being treated as a chump.

  Simply listing most of Manhattan as a “sensitive place” will again push the constitutional envelope. It will force the court to again limit the authority of the states to shoulder the burden of balancing the individual right to gun ownership against the need to protect these places from the exercise of that right.

  In answering that question, the court is likely to ask how statistically lawful gun permit owners have caused or materially increased the public safety risk in these areas. Studies have generally not shown a clear relationship between restrictive gun permit laws and a significant decrease in gun violence.

  There is a clear majority on the court to give states and cities the power to impose reasonable background checks and gun limits for sensitive places. However, these states may again overplay their hand with excessive listings like the one in New York. Indeed, in Gov. Hochul’s case, she is playing poker with the cards facing outward.

  When you say that you are going play these justices, you would be wise to heed Syndrome’s other advice: “You can’t count on anyone, especially your heroes.”

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 07/18/2022 – 21:15

• Hulu Driving More Subscribers For Disney Than Disney+
  Hulu Driving More Subscribers For Disney Than Disney+

  Disney-owned Hulu has emerged as the entertainment giant’s fastest-growing streaming service – with new subscriptions outpacing those of Disney’s flagship platform, Disney+, in 18 of the last 24 months, according to the Wall Street Journal.

  

  What’s more, total new subscriptions to Hulu have eclipsed Disney+ in each of the last six quarters, according to subscriber analytics firm Atenna.

  Hulu’s subscriber gains come as Disney leadership is under pressure from investors to keep up the momentum in Disney+ subscriber growth. Disney Chief Executive Bob Chapek has set a target of signing up between 230 million and 260 million Disney+ subscribers and achieving profitability for the streaming business by September 2024, a goal described as unrealistic by some shareholders. -WSJ

  That said, streaming services have lost $887 million in the most recent quarter – and total more than $6 billion since the launch of Disney+, causing some analysts to describe streaming as a drag on Disney’s share price – which has fallen almost 40% YTD amid a larger pullback in the sector.

  Disney+ stands at 137.7 million subscribers as of the most recent quarter, while Hulu streaming-only service has 41.4 milion subscribers. Hulu Live, which goes for $70 per month, has 4.1 million subscribers.

  On Friday, Disney announced that they were raising the price of ESPN+ from $6.99 to $9.99, or from $69.99 annually to $99.99, which a Disney spokesperson says reflects the higher value and scope of the service. The company says it expects ESPN to make the Disney Bundle more attractive.

  Subscribers to the stand-alone Hulu service are less loyal than Disney+ subscribers, the data show, and more likely to cancel their subscriptions than those who subscribe to Disney’s streaming bundle, which includes both services and the sports-focused ESPN+. In June, the latest month for which data was available, 4.7% of Hulu subscribers canceled their subscriptions, compared with just 2.5% of bundle subscribers and 3.83% of Disney+ subscribers, Antenna found. -WSJ

  “They did a great job of teeing up those hard-core Disney fans” according to Antenna CEO Jonathan Carson. “But there’s a broader and longer-term upside for Hulu, because it has general market appeal, while Disney+ has a much more specialized fan base.”

  Disney acquired a controlling interest in Hulu in 2019 as part of its $72 billion purchase of 21st Century Fox’s entertainment assets.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 07/18/2022 – 20:55

• Hong Kong Government To Track Citizens With Next-Level CCP-Type COVID Smartphone App
  Hong Kong Government To Track Citizens With Next-Level CCP-Type COVID Smartphone App

  Authord by Niee Law and Ying Cheung via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Since the new chief executive, John Lee Ka-chiu took office; he has been ready to do whatever it takes to please the CCP.

  

  The Hong Kong government (HKgov) has been proactively seeking ways to reopen cross-borders with China.

  Hkgov plans to enforce the CCP’s Health Code tracking into Hongkongers’ pandemic life. Commentators and netizens are nervous about losing personal freedom and privacy under the regime.

  HKgov has plans to add the COVID-19 Color Code system to the current LeaveHomeSafe App. Doing so will further restrict citizens’ movements. This app is a HKgov-made mobile vaccine passport for tracing and tracking COVID-19 patients and their public visits.

  Lo Chung-mau, Secretary for Health Authority (HA), said the Information, Technology and Industry Bureau (ITIB) and HA had concluded an evaluation of LeaveHomeSafe just half a month after the new government took office on July 1.

  Lo claimed that Hong Kong must mirror the CCP’s Dynamic-Zero Policy to ease pandemic cases, as it is a good policy. “Any policy which eliminates high-risk patients’ public visits is a good policy we should learn from.” His comments confirmed citizens’ concern about real-identity-based registration on the app.

  Limitation of Movement or Under Surveillance

  Hong Kong has been quietly running a similar system since 2021. Nevertheless, the Hong Kong code had only been applied to those who cross the borders of Guangdong Province, China, or Macau under quarantine exemptions. The color code allowed both cities to watch their Covid-19 cases.

  Hong Kong Code is essentially based on the PCR Test Pass, with PCR short for polymerase chain reaction-based nucleic acid test for COVID-19.

  Unlike the current Hong Kong Code, which only traces a small group of exempted visitors, HKgov is now discussing tracking everyone in Hong Kong.

  Three color indicators will be added to the existing vaccine pass by bracketing media reports, and standards of both PCR and Hong Kong vaccine passes.

  Code Red represents COVID-19 confirmed patients, close-contact persons, any coronavirus-positive patients within 14 days upon discharge, persons who are undergoing compulsory COVID-19 test, and anyone who had reported symptoms of the virus within the past 14 days.

  Code Yellow symbolizes anyone who has visited or is currently living in the high-risk areas, those who are waiting to be tested. Public places such as restaurants and gyms will not grant entry to anyone with Code Yellow.

  As for Code Green, anyone is tested negative—but the green code is only valid for one day.

  Lo claimed that the new rule “has nothing to do with wanting to reopen cross borders with China.”

  Hongkongers and critics are worried about Hong Kong becoming another CCP surveillance city.

  Public Opinions Are Loud and Clear

  As soon as the news broke, Hongkongers’ criticism and queries buzzed.

  Some said that the new code could ban them from dining in restaurants even if they had been vaccinated. Other citizens criticized HKgov for being ignorant. One of the netizens expressed, “Does HKgov realize how many people still don’t own or know how to work a smartphone? Asking them to learn how to use your app sends them to their graves.”

  The general public is also wondering: Why would Hong Kong copy a failed policy of Dynamic-Zero from the CCP?

  One of the netizens raised a worrying question. “Will the government turn our Health Code to Code Red one day as they did in Henan Province? Will our banks ban us from withdrawing our money?”

  A Blow to Personal Privacy

  Sam Ng Chi-sum, the former RTHK host of Headliners, commented during his online program that HKgov had never been able to eliminate privacy concerns of LeaveHomeSafe.

  Ng continued, “Many Hongkongers are still hesitant to install LeaveHomeSafe. If HKgov pushes for the real-identity registration policy, Hongkongers will have zero privacy.”

  Ng emphasized the Beijing regime has been using the Health Code to control and track the people of China around the clock. Ng said, “The CCP has been using Code Red against human rights and political activists. Who can explain that?”

  In November 2021, Chinese human rights lawyer Xie Yang was about to fly to Shanghai to visit the mother of the citizen journalist Zhang Zhan. When he arrived at the airport, Xie was unexpectedly banned from flying as his PCR Test Pass turned red. Once he got home, the code became green again.

  The public’s concerns are not groundless.

  Ng mentioned, “If the regime is turning Hong Kong into a surveillance city, LegCo will not stop that from happening.”

  Health Tools Become Surveillance Tools.

  The Beijing government launched the Health Code nationwide in early 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Only those with Code Green can get a pass. Compulsory PCR tests or self-quarantine are required for everyone else, and they must remain home until Code Green is signaled.

  Many other cases have proven that the authorities use the Health Code to restrict personal freedom.

  In Henan Province, certain banks in rural areas have frozen customers’ assets since April 2022. Villagers could not withdraw their savings.

  In June 2022, when hundreds of frustrated villagers planned to partake in a protest in Zhengzhou, everyone‘s original health code turned from green to red. No one could attend the rally as everyone had to stay home.

  Other bank account holders also said they encountered the same issue despite their negative PCR Test.

  Mainland media outlet Caixin reported that these customers’ Health Code going red is not pandemic-related.

  Those customers were the victims of frozen savings accounts by Henan banks.

  The Supervisory Committee of Zhengzhou Municipal Commission for Discipline Inspection later announced that the involved officials had been penalized, demoted, or dismissed from their positions in the CCP.

  In the Henan village bank incident, 1317 villages were red-coded and blocked from withdrawing their savings by the banks.

  On June 24, 2022, the Disease Control Bureau of the National Health Commission of China announced that any change in Health Code’s colors except for COVID-19 will be forbidden.

  Face Recognition Revealed by Hong Kong Media

  So when people under the Beijing regime had no control over their money or personal freedom, the public’s concerns about being watched were not groundless.

  In May 2022, FactWire, a Hong Kong investigative news agency, reported that the Android version of LeaveHomeSafe had a built-in face recognition module.

  The Office of the Government Chief Information Center admitted that the app development contractor had included a pre-existing facial recognition module during the development stage of LeaveHomeSafe. The office also claimed that the facial recognition function was “never activated.”

  Freedom Has limits

  Secretary for Health Authority Lo Chung-mau justified this in response to movement restrictions. “Freedom would be limited for the uninfected if sick people were allowed the freedom to roam.” Lo also claimed, “Freedom has limits. At risk, people should not be allowed to go out and endanger others.”

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 07/18/2022 – 20:35

• Are US Presidents Getting Older?
  Are US Presidents Getting Older?

  Joe Biden is turning 80 this year. When the 46th U.S. president was inaugurated in January of 2021, he was the oldest president in U.S. history by some margin. His predecessor, Donald Trump, had also been the oldest president to take office at his inauguration six years ago (he was 70 at the time).

  As Statista’s Katharina Buchholz details below, if Biden was nominated for a second term, he would be 82 when assuming it in 2025. His old opponent Trump, who is expected to run again in 2024, would be 78.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  Taking a look at all presidents’ ages at the time of their inauguration since 1789, no clear trend is visible. Before Trump and Biden, presidents’ ages were actually well below average. Barack Obama took office at 47 years and 169 days, according to Potus.com, making him the fifth youngest president at the time of inauguration.

  Bill Clinton, who was 46 when he took over, was the third youngest – only John F. Kennedy (43) and Teddy Roosevelt (42) were younger.

  Some of the oldest presidents hail from past centuries. William Henry Harrison was 68 at his inauguration in 1841 (he died a month later of typhoid and pneumonia), making him the fourth-oldest president ever. James Buchanan, who took office in 1857, was the fifth-oldest president at 65.

  The reason we bring this up is that age is the most cited reason why a majority of Democrats do not want President Biden to primary for 2024,  with a bad job performance following close behind.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  According to The Advocate, it has been almost 170 years since an incumbent president has lost his party’s nomination, the last having been Democrat Franklin Pierce in 1856 over his support of slavery.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 07/18/2022 – 20:15

• Congress Grants Pentagon $58 Billion More Than Requested: DOD Report
  Congress Grants Pentagon $58 Billion More Than Requested: DOD Report

  Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  US lawmakers granted the Department of Defense (DOD) more money than the Pentagon requested for in the fiscal 2022 defense budget, a recent Pentagon report shows.

  

  In total, Congress sanctioned $58.55 billion in additional funds, according to the report. This includes $25.70 billion for operations and maintenance, $17.67 billion for procurement, $9.89 billion for research, development, test, and evaluation, $4.32 billion for military construction, and $947 million for military personnel.

  The DOD initially had a base budget appropriation of $742.3 billion for fiscal 2022. As such, the extra $58.55 billion represents an almost 8 percent increase from the base budget. The Pentagon did not put in a request for any of the programs funded with the extra $58.55 billion.

  These programs are not even in the so-called unfunded priorities lists—made up of items not included in the budget but considered critical—that departments and officers send to Congress annually.

  For instance, roughly $4 billion was granted for half a dozen ships that were not on the unfunded priorities list. Similarly, the Navy received $900 million for a dozen Super Hornet jets, the Air National Guard got $1.8 billion to purchase 16 C-130J transport planes, and $460 million was granted for developing advanced jet engines. Over $2 billion in extra funds was appropriated for classified programs.

  The $58.55 billion calculation only takes into account individual additions totaling $20 million or more. Since there are usually many spending hikes in the single-digit millions, the total actual excess funding will likely be higher.

  Funding Debate

  In an email to Roll Call, Steve Ellis, president of Taxpayers for Common Sense, a government spending watchdog group, called for more efficient military budgets.

  “Certainly Congress has the power of the purse, but considering the Pentagon got more than $750 billion that year, lawmakers could work within that generous budget to reflect their priorities … Instead, they dumped more than $50 billion across accounts for what appear to be in some cases very parochial interests.”

  Since fiscal 2017, the Pentagon’s base budget has risen by 48 percent. The recently passed House version of the 2023 defense budget ups the funding received by the Pentagon, authorizing $839 billion in military spending—$37 billion more than was requested by the administration.

  While some question rising military expenditures, others argue that spending needs to be much higher. In May, Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Ala.) pointed out that there was a mismatch between the requested defense budget and the real-world situation.

  Speaking at a talk sponsored by the Hudson Institute, Rogers pointed out that the proposed 2023 budget only offers 1 percent of real growth after inflation. A realistic budget needs to include at least 5 percent over real inflation, he argued.

  “That’s the thing that we have to keep reminding them, stop trying to make the threats fit the budget number that the president gave you,” Rogers said. “You worry about the threats and tell us how much it’s going to cost and let us worry about it.”

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 07/18/2022 – 19:55

• US Retailers Boost Security Personnel To Combat Soaring Thefts And Violent Crime
  US Retailers Boost Security Personnel To Combat Soaring Thefts And Violent Crime

  Eateries and supermarkets have beefed up security presence in response to mounting crime, with some operators spending money on private security, implementing new safety protocols, reducing hours of operation, and or even closing stores altogether, WSJ reports.

  

  Last week, 16 Starbucks locations were permanently shuttered in major cities over incidents related to drug use and ‘other disruptions’ in its cafes. Just weeks before, the coffee chain walked back its “all inclusive” bathroom policy. 

  “We are facing things that the stores weren’t built for,” Starbucks CEO Howard Schutz said. “We are listening to our people and closing stores,” he said, adding the government must be more proactive in crime fighting and treating mental illness as crime spirals out of control in liberal metro areas. 

  Casual dining chain Noodles & Co. encountered similar situations of rampant drug use in bathrooms. Meanwhile, supermarket Kroger Co. and drugstore Wallgreens have been pressured by increasing organized thefts. 

  A new study showed that 41% of Americans are more fearful to grab a bite to eat or shop in public areas because of rising violent crime. A national online survey by food-service research firm Lisa W. Miller & Associates LLC said that figure is up from 39% in March. The firm surveyed 1,005 adults earlier this month. 

  New Federal Bureau of Investigation statistics shows aggravated assaults that took place in supermarkets increased by a whopping 73% between 2018 to 2020 and by 60% in restaurants during that period. 

  In Southern California earlier this month, a handful of 7-Eleven stores were closed after a string of robberies at the convenience store left two people dead and three others injured. 

  Mod Super Fast Pizza Holdings LLC’s store managers have reported increasing violent crime, such as theft and robberies, over the past six months at some of its 520-stores across the US. 

  “There seems to be a layer of stress going into the restaurants, more than it used to,” Becky Mulligan, senior vice president of operations, said. 

  This month’s survey by grocery trade group FMI said 72% of its 18 food retailers representing over 12,000 stores said they were initiating plans to deal with violence prevention, while 88% of respondents said they saw a jump in robberies. 

  Walking into a Wegmans supermarket, with most stores based in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, customers are greeted with local police or private security (sometimes off-duty cops) patrolling the aisles for those attempting to steal food. 

  Thefts appear to be a significant issue plaguing US retailers. Relaxed shoplifting rules in California have led to a number of Walgreens stores closing across San Francisco. 

  And let’s not forget the countless reports of ‘smash and grabs’ across all sorts of retailers from California to New York. One of the most notable flash mob raids was at a Nordstrom department store in an upscale community on the outskirts of the San Francisco Bay Area, called Walnut Creek, where 50-80 people ransacked the store late last year. 

  Best Buy recently blamed sliding margins on an increased number of thefts nationwide. 

  “We are seeing more and more particularly organized retail crime,” Chief Executive Officer Corie Barry said on a conference call with analysts. “You can see that pressure in our financials, and more importantly, frankly, you can see that pressure with our associates. It’s traumatizing.”

  Increased shoplifting recently forced Target to reduce operating hours at several California locations. 

  Theft and violence across retailer stores come as the worst inflation has unequally crushed the working poor the hardest and wiped out their savings. In periods of economic turmoil, crime tends to increase.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 07/18/2022 – 19:35

• June Southwest Border Apprehensions: Record High
  June Southwest Border Apprehensions: Record High

  By Steven Kopits of Princeton Policy Advisors

  US Customs and Border Protection reported 191,898 apprehensions at the US southwest border for June. This is comfortably a record for the month, almost twice the pre-Biden record of 115,000 set in June 2000 under the Clinton administration, and even 13,000 above last year’s 177,000, a record for June at the time. At the same time, apprehensions were right on our forecast, and indeed, apprehensions have been following our forecast closely for the first half of the year, suggesting that border conditions are largely unchanged since the Biden administration took office.

  

  Illegal immigration from traditional sources, notably Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador, has been below that of last year since March. We presume that such immigrants are well informed about labor market conditions in the US, as they have a wide variety of sources within the US to direct them to job openings. Migrants may be perceiving softness in demand for their labor.

  At the same time, a key source of border crossing growth has come from the ‘Other’ category, that is, countries historically not a major source of illegal immigration. In March-June 2019, for example, an average of 13,000 migrants from ‘Other’ countries were arrested crossing the border monthly. In the same period this year, the average was 100,000 per month. One can imagine all sorts of legacy problems arising from the growth of ‘Other’ apprehensions. They will create a pipeline of illegal immigration that will long outlast the Biden administration.

  Our fiscal year 2022 forecast for southwest border apprehensions remains unchanged at 2.1 million, by far an annual record and nearly 500,000 higher than the previous record set by the Biden administration last year.

  

  Inadmissibles, those presenting themselves at official crossing points without appropriate documentation, have fallen sharply, with most of the decline coming from the ‘Other’ category. These were, in all likelihood, disproportionately Ukrainians fleeing the war, with their numbers declining as the situation has stabilized there.

  

  Overall, the situation at the border is largely unchanged. The Open Borders policy remains in place.

  I would note that, were we to use a market-based visa system, the US could have booked $30 bn in visa revenues this year from those otherwise entering illegally during the Biden administration. The border would effectively be closed to illegal immigration; all those working in the country would be legal and willing to return home; and these 53 migrants would still be alive.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 07/18/2022 – 19:15

• California's Farmland Rapidly Turns To Dust Amid Water Crisis
  California’s Farmland Rapidly Turns To Dust Amid Water Crisis

  As much of the Western US suffers from a historic drought, all eyes have shifted to Californian farmers as hundreds of thousands of acres become fallow in a state responsible for a tremendous amount of US food production. 

  Unprecedented cuts to water supplies are jeopardizing the future of growing for many farmers. Drought conditions are worsening, making it harder for farmers to irrigate crops.

  

  As fields dry up and farm production drops, Josue Medellin-Azuara, an associate professor at the University of California Merced, told Bloomberg that 800,000 acres of farmland could be unworked this year, more than double the acreage last year. 

  Medellin-Azuara said the figure is preliminary as satellite imaging of California cropland continues to be examined. He anticipates official estimates by the end of this month or early August. 

  Just like that, multi-year, multi-decade investments in farm production have been wiped out over new water restrictions. Much of the fallow land is in California’s Central Valley, which produces more than half of the fruits, vegetables, and nuts grown in the US. 

  Farmers that remain in operation are seeing sharp reductions in surface water rights due to low snowmelt and dwindling storage from last year. 

  “What’s really concerning is for the first time we are fallowing at least 250,000 acres in the Sacramento Valley … those are the most senior water rights holders,” Karen Ross, secretary of the California Department of Food and Agriculture, said in an interview. 

  Medellin-Azuara said the new water restrictions are a complicated issue:

  Last year, some California farmers were stunned to find their so-called senior water rights restricted. Water laws in the state are governed by a complex system that dates back to the Gold Rush era. Senior rights holders — which include companies, growers and cities with claims that were acquired before 1914, and landowners whose property borders a river — are the last to see their supplies curtailed. -Bloomberg

  California’s most productive agricultural region is turning into dust, which should concern every American.

  As a reminder, California produces a quarter of the nation’s food — shrinking crop output is more alarming news that reveals food inflation is becoming structural and won’t abate anytime soon. 

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 07/18/2022 – 18:55

• San Francisco's New DA Goes On Firing Spree After Voters Recall Soros-Backed Predecessor
  San Francisco’s New DA Goes On Firing Spree After Voters Recall Soros-Backed Predecessor

  Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

  The new district attorney in San Francisco fired at least 15 employees from the prosecutor’s office after her left-wing predecessor Chesa Boudin was recalled last month.

  “Today, I made difficult, but important changes to my management team and staff that will help advance my vision to restore a sense of safety in San Francisco by holding serious and repeat offenders accountable and implementing smart criminal justice reforms,” DA Brooke Jenkins said in a statement about the firings.

  

  Jenkins added in a statement that she “promised the public that I would restore accountability and consequences to the criminal justice system while advancing smart reforms responsibly”

  “My new management team … with decades of prosecutorial experience at the highest levels, will help our office deliver on that promise. I have full faith and confidence that these women will promote and protect public safety while delivering justice in all of its various forms,” she said.

  Among those who were fired include former San Francisco Managing Attorney Arcelia Hurtado, who headed the city’s Innocence Commission.

  Hurtado expressed her disappointment on Twitter, invoking her ethnicity and sexual orientation.

  “After over 2 years of tireless and devoted service to the City and Cty of SF, I was unceremoniously fired without cause via phone by the Mayor’s appointed DA,” she wrote.

  “I am the highest-ranking Latina/LGBTQ member of the management team at that office. I will continue the fight 4justice.”

  

  Other staffers to lose their jobs at the district attorney’s office included Rachel Marshall and Simin Shamji, reported KRON-4.

  Boudin was recalled on June 7 amid criticism of a citywide surge in crime, homelessness, and drug usage in public. Jenkins quit Boudin’s office in 2021 after joining in 2014.

  …

  Controversial billionaire investor George Soros’ network of left-wing organizations provided Boudin with $600,000 for his 2019 election, according to the Washington Times. However, after he was recalled, a spokesperson for Soros said that he never contributed to Boudin.

  …

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 07/18/2022 – 18:35

• Solar Panels Subsidized By California Are Winding Up In Landfills, Contaminating Groundwater With Toxic Metals
  Solar Panels Subsidized By California Are Winding Up In Landfills, Contaminating Groundwater With Toxic Metals

  Oh, the irony…California’s massive push for adaptation of solar over the last several decades in order to ascertain more “clean” energy is now becoming a problem for landfills.

  After 1.3 million solar installs later, the first push of panels are reaching the end of their “typical 25-to-30-year life cycle”, according to Yahoo. 

  And now for the coda to the “clean energy” story: many of the panels are “winding up in landfills, where in some cases, they could potentially contaminate groundwater with toxic heavy metals such as lead, selenium and cadmium” the report says. 

  One expert told yahoo that only 1 in 10 panels are actually recycled – the rest are contributing to “truckloads of waste”, some of which is contaminated, according to the report. 

  Sam Vanderhoof, a solar industry expert and chief executive of Recycle PV Solar told Yahoo: “The industry is supposed to be green. But in reality, it’s all about the money.”

  California has been pushing for solar since 2006, when the state approved $3.3 billion in subsidies. Now, about 15% of the state’s power comes from solar – but that belies the environmental disaster disposing of the panels has become. 

  

  While about 80% of the panels is recyclable, the process of disassembling the panels to get at the individual materials – including glass and silicon – is “extremely difficult”. 

  Serasu Duran, an assistant professor at the University of Calgary’s Haskayne School of Business in Canada commented: “This trash is probably going to arrive sooner than we expected and it is going to be a huge amount of waste. But while all the focus has been on building this renewable capacity, not much consideration has been put on the end of life of these technologies.”

  AJ Orben, vice president of We Recycle Solar added: “There’s no doubt that there will be an increase in the solar panels entering the waste stream in the next decade or so. That’s never been a question.”

  It’s burdensome to teach those who have the panels what is in them and the proper way to recycle them. Most consumers are not aware of the toxic nature of the panels. And like most everything else that needs to be subsidized in order to be adopted, recycling of the panels doesn’t make economic sense, the report adds:

  Recycling solar panels isn’t a simple process. Highly specialized equipment and workers are needed to separate the aluminum frame and junction box from the panel without shattering it into glass shards. Specialized furnaces are used to heat panels to recover silicon.

  In most states, panels are classified as hazardous materials, which require expensive restrictions on packaging, transport and storage. (The vast majority of residential solar arrays in the U.S. are crystalline silicon panels, which can contain lead, although it’s less prevalent in newer panels.

  Thin-film solar panels, which contain cadmium and selenium, are primarily used in utility-grade applications.) Orben said the economics of the process don’t make a compelling case for recycling.

  Amanda Bybee, co-founder of SolarRecycle.org, said: “There’s an informational gap, there’s a technological gap, and there’s a financial gap that we’re working on.”

  And while California regulates how the panels can be collected, it doesn’t change the end destination of many of the materials, Orben said: “What that [rule] does is really just changes how that material is handled, managed, stored, and transported. It doesn’t change how that material is actually processed.”

  Drew Johnstone, a sustainability analyst for Santa Monica, concluded: “It’s going to be a really large issue in a number of years, So it would behoove local governments, county, state, and it can go federal too, to have a plan in place for all these panels that will reach their end of life in 10 to 15 years.”

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 07/18/2022 – 18:15

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• Destroying The Planet To Save Ukraine?
  Destroying The Planet To Save Ukraine?

  Authored by Patricia Adams and Lawrence Solomon via The Epoch Times,

  Saving Ukraine from Russia has become more important to Western leaders than saving the planet from climate change, more important than keeping their populations from freezing in the dark, more important than the viability of Western industries, and more important even than avoiding the risk of an all-out nuclear war between the West and Russia.

  

  An early indication of the West’s loss of all perspective where Russia is concerned – call it Russia Derangement Syndrome – occurred in the United States after Donald Trump was elected president. Large swathes of the public, including virtually all Democrats and the legacy media, embraced a fantasy known as Russian Collusion, which asserted that Russia had colluded with the Trump campaign to install him as president.

  The fantasy persisted for three years until 2019 when Russia Collusion was confirmed to be a hoax perpetrated by Trump’s rival for the 2016 presidency, Hillary Clinton.

  

  Former Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson testifies before the House Intelligence Committee in an open hearing in the U.S. Capitol Visitors Center in Washington on June 21, 2017. Johnson answered questions about Russia’s interference in the 2016 presidential elections and his department’s response to the threat. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

  Earlier this year, after Russia invaded Ukraine over a territorial dispute, Russia Derangement Syndrome went into overdrive. An infuriated West sanctioned Russian goods and services helter-skelter without thinking through the consequences, chiefly those involving energy. Russia represents continental Europe’s chief energy source and is the main reason Europeans can keep the lights on.

  Only after the Europeans decided to punish Russia, and only after Russia announced cuts to gas flows—temporarily, it said—on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline of 60 percent, did it dawn on Europeans that Russia could retaliate this coming winter through punitively-timed energy curtailments, putting Europe at Russia’s mercy.

  In Germany, for example, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s administration did its sums to discover that under all scenarios, Germany lacked the reserves needed to last the winter.

  “That was the sobering moment,” admitted Klaus Mueller, who heads Germany’s gas network regulator.

  “If we have a very, very cold winter, if we’re careless and far too generous with gas, then it won’t be pretty.”

  The European Union, now in a panic, is scrambling to acquire fossil fuels from any sources in a desperate attempt to stockpile energy prior to winter. Germany is returning to coal, as are Austria, Italy, and the Netherlands. The United Kingdom is also turning to coal and reversing its ban on fracking and on North Sea oil production. The EU is endorsing Norway’s latest exploitation of the North Sea and is open to new contracts for long-term commitments of natural gas.

  The United States is exporting record amounts of gas, so much so that Europe now receives more high-priced liquefied natural gas from U.S. tankers than inexpensive natural gas from Russian pipelines. Since Russia invaded Ukraine, Europeans have advanced more than 20 liquefied natural gas import projects.

  In this fossil fuel free-for-all, the West has effectively abandoned its once ironclad commitment to combat climate change, which its leaders never tired of describing as an existential threat to the planet. Gone is Germany’s net-zero commitment to phase out coal plants by 2030, tenuous is the UK’s pledge to stop using coal in power stations by 2024, and shaky is the G-7’s determination to end “direct public support for the international unabated fossil fuel energy sector by the end of 2022.” Instead, the G-7, noting its determination to support Ukraine, backed increased deliveries of liquefied natural gas and urged oil-producing nations to increase their production.

  

  Wind turbines near a coal-fired power plant are pictured near Hamm, western Germany, on June 8, 2022. (INA FASSBENDER/AFP via Getty Images)

  To punish Russia, the Europeans are knowingly visiting far more severe punishments on themselves. Germany is preparing to put its population on an emergency footing by urging a rationing of energy. Its governments are responding by dimming street lights, switching off the illumination of historic buildings, and shutting off hot water in gyms, museums, and government buildings. Housing complexes are limiting the hours that hot showers can be taken and lowering the thermostats in centrally heated complexes. Industries are planning to scale back, move away from Europe, or shut down operations altogether.

  “A complete halt to Russian natural gas exports would cost Germany 12.7% of economic performance in the second half of 2022,” costing some $200 billion and affecting 5.6 million jobs, the Bavaria Industry Association warned last month.

  Denmark’s emergency plan involves shutting down gas heating during the summer, taking shorter showers, drying clothes outside, and suspending gas supplies to energy-intensive industries.

  A greater punishment still is being voiced in the form of nuclear war. The UK, France, and the United States have all reminded Russia that they possess nuclear weapons in response to Russian reminders that it has the greatest nuclear arsenal of all.

  Remarkably, before the West so uniformly came to Ukraine’s defense, Ukraine was held in low regard by Europeans, viewed as a kleptocracy run by corrupt oligarchs with only the faintest hint of the rule of law. That image was transformed overnight once Russia invaded, as Ukraine became an instant darling of the West, so worthy as to warrant the destruction of the West’s economy, environment, and possibly the West itself.

  Such is the power of the Russia Derangement Syndrome.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 07/17/2022 – 23:30

• Rescue-Fund Idea Floated To Stop Mortgage Crisis
  Rescue-Fund Idea Floated To Stop Mortgage Crisis

  By George Lei, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and analyst

  The Chinese stock market suffered its biggest weekly loss in three months, with the benchmark CSI 300 index sinking more than 4%. Real estate and banking risks soured sentiment and surging Covid cases made matters worse.

  

  Last week, housing ministry officials met with financial regulators and major Chinese banks to discuss lending matters. The government also censored crowd-sourced documents tallying the number of mortgage boycotts across the country. Markets, however, expect much more. Swift policy responses coordinated from Beijing are urgently needed to prevent bigger market rout.

  Knee-jerk reactions from local authorities may be to tighten oversight of escrow accounts for new home sales, and for banking regulators to raise mortgage standards. After all, a key reason for the mortgage boycotts is that developers diverted homeowner payments for other purposes. Now that many developers are facing financing difficulties, construction on those unfinished homes stalled.

  Such moves make perfect sense in isolation. But they might cause more troubles nationwide if implemented together. More money in escrow means less for developers, which could “lead to a sustained slowdown in housing market activity and more developer defaults,” according to a JPMorgan client note written by Tingting Ge, Haibin Zhu and Grace Ng on Friday. Relaxation of escrow management, on the other hand, would create the risk of embezzlement that could hurt more homebuyers.

  Nomura also expects “stricter control over presale escrow accounts” that would “hurt sales demand further,” credit desk analyst Iris Chen said in a note on Thursday. Mortgage issuance may also face a stricter approval process that could slow down cash collection and add pressure to developers’ liquidity.

  The mortgage boycott news, paradoxically, reduced concerns that accommodative macro policies might be pulled back, according to a client note from Goldman Sachs. Analysts Maggie Wei, Hui Shan and Lisheng Wang talked with clients including asset managers, private equity and hedge funds in Beijing and Shanghai. They found that domestic investors have high expectations for additional fiscal measures, such as more government bond issuance or further financial support by policy banks.

  Monetary easing alone cannot provide a quick fix to property sector problems, Xu Gao, chief economist at Bank of China International told local media. He floated the idea of a 1 trillion yuan ($148 billion) relief fund to buy non-controlling equity stakes in troubled developers. Once the builders are adequately capitalized with state-backed money, banks will be more willing to lend and the public will feel more assured of their new home purchases.

  There are plenty of precedents for such rescue facilities. In 2008-09, the US Treasury spent about $250 billion to stabilize banks and $46 billion to help struggling families avoid foreclosure under the Troubled Assets Relief Program. Premier Li Keqiang said in March that Beijing plans to set up a fund for ensuring financial stability without giving more details.

  Now, it looks like homeowners, banks and developers all need some lifeline to see through the mortgage crisis. Policy makers in the very top will need to act swiftly and decisively. The consequences of inaction, or a piecemeal, uncoordinated approach, can be very costly.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 07/17/2022 – 22:47

• Dr. Birx Praises Herself While Revealing Ignorance, Treachery, & Deceit
  Dr. Birx Praises Herself While Revealing Ignorance, Treachery, & Deceit

  Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Brownstone Institute,

  The December 2020 resignation of Dr. Deborah Birx, White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator under Trump, revealed predictable hypocrisy.

  Like so many other government officials around the world, she was caught violating her own stay-at-home order.

  Therefore she finally left her post following nine months of causing unfathomable amounts of damage to life, liberty, property, and the very idea of hope for the future. 

  

  Even if Anthony Fauci had been the front man for the media, it was Birx who was the main influence in the White House behind the nationwide lockdowns that did not stop or control the pathogen but have caused immense suffering and continue to roil and wreck the world. So it was significant that she would not and could not comply with her own dictates, even as her fellow citizens were being hunted down for the same infractions against “public health.” 

  In the days before Thanksgiving 2020, she had warned Americans to “assume you’re infected” and to restrict gatherings to “your immediate household.” Then she packed her bags and headed to Fenwick Island in Delaware where she met with four generations for a traditional Thanksgiving dinner, as if she were free to make normal choices and live a normal life while everyone else had to shelter in place. 

  The Associated Press was first out with the report on December 20, 2020. 

  Birx acknowledged in a statement that she went to her Delaware property. She declined to be interviewed.

  She insisted the purpose of the roughly 50-hour visit was to deal with the winterization of the property before a potential sale — something she says she previously hadn’t had time to do because of her busy schedule. 

  “I did not go to Delaware for the purpose of celebrating Thanksgiving,” Birx said in her statement, adding that her family shared a meal together while in Delaware. 

  Birx said that everyone on her Delaware trip belongs to her “immediate household,” even as she acknowledged they live in two different homes. She initially called the Potomac home a “3 generation household (formerly 4 generations).” White House officials later said it continues to be a four-generation household, a distinction that would include Birx as part of the home.

  So it was all a sleight-of-hand: she was staying home; it’s just that she has several homes! This is how the power elite comply, one supposes. 

  The BBC then quoted her defense, which echo the pain experienced by hundreds of millions: 

  “My daughter hasn’t left that house in 10 months, my parents have been isolated for 10 months. They’ve become deeply depressed as I’m sure many elderly have as they’ve not been able to see their sons, their granddaughters. My parents have not been able to see their surviving son for over a year. These are all very difficult things.”

  Indeed. However, she was the major voice for the better part of 2020 for requiring exactly that. No one should blame her for wanting to get together with family; that she worked so hard for so long to prevent others from doing so is what is at issue. 

  The press piled on and she announced that she would be leaving her post and not seeking a position at the Biden White House. Trump tweeted that she will be missed. It was the final discrediting – or should have been – of a person that many in the White House and many around the country had come to see as an obvious fanatic and fake, a person whose influence wrecked the liberties and health of an entire country. 

  It was a fitting end to a catastrophic career.

  So it would make sense that people might pick up her new book to find out what it was like to go through that kind of media storm, the real reasons for her visit, what it was like to know for sure that she must violate her own rules in order to bring comfort to her family, and the difficult decision she made to throw in the towel knowing that she has compromised the integrity of her entire program. 

  One slogs through her entire book only to find this incredible fact: she never mentions this. The incident is missing entirely from her book. 

  Instead at the moment in the narrative at which she would be expected to recount the affair she says almost in passing that “When former vice president Biden was declared the winner of the 2020 election, I’d set a goal for myself—to hand over responsibility for the pandemic response, with all its many elements, in the best possible place.”

  At that point, the book skips immediately to the new year. Done. It’s like Orwell, the story, even though it was reported for days in the world press and became a defining moment in her career, is just wiped out from the history book of her own authorship. 

  Somehow it makes sense that she would neglect to mention this. Reading her book is a very painful experience (all credit to Michael Senger’s review) simply because it seems to be weaving fables on page after page, strewn with bromides, completely lacking in self awareness, punctuated by revealing comments that make the opposite point of what she is seeking. Reading it is truly a surreal experience, astonishing especially because she is able to maintain her delusionary pose for 525 pages. 

  Recall that it was she who was tasked – by Anthony Fauci – with doing the really crucial thing of talking Donald Trump into green-lighting the lockdowns that began on March 12, 2020, and continued to their final hard-core deployment on March 16. This was the “15 Days to Flatten the Curve” that turned into two years in many parts of the country. 

  Her book admits that it was a two-level lie from the beginning. 

  “We had to make these palatable to the administration by avoiding the obvious appearance of a full Italian lockdown,” she writes. “At the same time, we needed the measures to be effective at slowing the spread, which meant matching as closely as possible what Italy had done—a tall order. We were playing a game of chess in which the success of each move was predicated on the one before it.”

  Further: 

  “At this point, I wasn’t about to use the words lockdown or shutdown. If I had uttered either of those in early March, after being at the White House only one week, the political, nonmedical members of the task force would have dismissed me as too alarmist, too doom-and-gloom, too reliant on feelings and not facts. They would have campaigned to lock me down and shut me up.”

  In other words, she wanted to go full CCP just like Italy but didn’t want to say that. Crucially, she knew for sure that two weeks was not the real plan. “I left the rest unstated: that this was just a starting point.”

  “No sooner had we convinced the Trump administration to implement our version of a two-week shutdown than I was trying to figure out how to extend it,” she admits. 

  “Fifteen Days to Slow the Spread was a start, but I knew it would be just that. I didn’t have the numbers in front of me yet to make the case for extending it longer, but I had two weeks to get them. However hard it had been to get the fifteen-day shutdown approved, getting another one would be more difficult by many orders of magnitude. In the meantime, I waited for the blowback, for someone from the economic team to call me to the principal’s office or confront me at a task force meeting. None of this happened.”

  It was a solution in search of evidence she did not have. She told Trump that the evidence was there anyway. She actually tricked him into believing that locking down a whole population of people was somehow magically going to make a virus to which everyone would inevitably be exposed somehow vanish as a threat. 

  Meanwhile, the economy was wrecked domestically and then all over the world, as most governments in the world followed what the US did. 

  Where did she come up with the idea of lockdowns? By her own report, her only real experience with infectious disease came from her work on AIDS, a very different disease from a respiratory virus that everyone would eventually get but which would only be fatal or even severe for a small cohort, a fact that was known since late January. Still, her experience counted for more than science. 

  “In any health crisis, it is crucial to work at the personal behavior level,” she says with the presumption that avoidance at all costs was the only goal. “With HIV/AIDS, this meant convincing asymptomatic people to get tested, to seek treatment if they were HIV-positive, and to take preventative measures, including wearing condoms; or to employ other pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) if they were negative.”

  She immediately hops to the analogy with Covid. “I knew the government agencies would need to do the same thing to have a similar effect on the spread of this novel coronavirus. The most obvious parallel with the HIV/AIDS example was the message of wearing masks.” 

  Masks = condoms. Remarkable. This “obvious parallel” remark sums the whole depth of her thinking. Behavior is all that matters. Just stay apart. Cover your mouth. Don’t gather. Don’t travel. Close the schools. Close everything. Whatever happens, don’t get it. Nothing else matters. Keep your immune system as unexposed as possible. 

  I wish I could say her thought is more complex than that but it is not. This was the basis for lockdowns. For how long? In her mind, it seems like it would be forever. Nowhere in the book does she reveal an exit strategy. Not even vaccines qualify. 

  From the very beginning, she revealed her epidemiological views. On March 16, 2020 at her press conference with Trump, she summarized her position: “We really want people to be separated at this time.” People? All people? Everywhere? Not one reporter raised a question about this obviously ridiculous and outrageous statement that would essentially destroy life on earth. 

  But she was serious – seriously deluded not only about how society functions but also about infectious disease of this sort. Only one thing mattered as a metric to her: reducing infections through any means possible, as if she on her own could cobble together a new kind of society in which exposure to airborne pathogens was made illegal. 

  Here is an example. There was a controversy about how many people should be allowed to gather in one space, as in home, church, store, stadium, or community center. She addresses how she came up with the rules: 

  The real problem with this fifty-versus-ten distinction, for me, was that it revealed that the CDC simply didn’t believe to the degree that I did that SARS-CoV-2 was being spread through the air silently and undetected from symptomless individuals. The numbers really did matter. As the years since have confirmed, in times of active viral community spread, as many as fifty people gathered together indoors (unmasked at this point, of course) was way too high a number. It increased the chances of someone among that number being infected exponentially. I had settled on ten knowing that even that was too many, but I figured that ten would at least be palatable for most Americans—high enough to allow for most gatherings of immediate family but not enough for large dinner parties and, critically, large weddings, birthday parties, and other mass social events.

  She puts a fine point on it: “if I pushed for zero (which was actually what I wanted and what was required), this would have been interpreted as a ‘lockdown’—the perception we were all working so hard to avoid.”

  What does it mean for zero people to gather? A suicide cult?

  In any case, just like that, from her own thinking and straight to enforcement, birthday parties, sports, weddings, and funerals came to be forbidden. 

  Here we gain insight into the sheer insanity of her vision. It is nothing short of a marvel that she somehow managed to gain the amount of influence she did. 

  Notice her above mention of her dogma that asymptomatic spread was the whole key to understanding pandemic. In other words, on her own and without any scientific support, she presumed that Covid was both extremely fatal and had a long latency period. To her way of thinking, this is why the usual tradeoff between severity and prevalence did not matter. 

  She was somehow certain that the longest estimates of latency were correct: 14 days. This is the reason for the “wait two weeks” obsession. She held onto this dogma throughout, almost like the fictional movie “Contagion” had been her only guide to understanding. 

  Later in the book, she writes that symptoms mean next to nothing because people can always carry around the virus in their nose without being sick. After all, this is what PCR tests have shown. Instead of seeing that as a failure of PCR, she saw this as a confirmation that everyone is a carrier no matter what and therefore everyone has to lock down because otherwise we’ll deal with a black plague.

  Somehow, despite her astonishing lack of scientific curiosity and experience in this area, she gained all influence over the initial Trump administration response. Briefly, she was godlike. 

  But Trump was not and is not a fool. He must have had some sleepless nights wondering how and why he had approved the destruction of that which he had seen as his greatest achievement. The virus was long here (probably from October 2019), it presented a specific danger to a narrow cohort, but otherwise behaved like a textbook flu. Maybe, he must have wondered, his initial instincts from January and February 2020 were correct all along. 

  Still, he very reluctantly approved a 30-day extension of lockdowns, entirely on Birx’s urging and with a few other fools standing around. Having given in a second time – still, no one thought to drop an email or make a phone call for a second opinion! – this seemed to be the turning point. Birx reports that by April 1, 2020, Trump had lost confidence in her. He might have intuited that he had been tricked. He stopped speaking to her. 

  It would still take another month before he would fully rethink everything that he had approved at her behest. 

  It made no difference. The bulk of her book is a brag fest about how she kept subverting the White House’s push to open up the economy – that is, allow people to exercise their rights and freedoms. Once Trump turned against her, and eventually found other people to provide good advice like the tremendously brave Scott Atlas – five months later he arrived in an attempt to save the country from disaster – Birx turned to rallying around her inner circle (Anthony Fauci, Robert Redfield, Matthew Pottinger, and a few others) plus assembling a realm of protection outside of her that included CNN reporter Sanjay Gupta and, very likely, the virus team at the New York Times (which gives her book a glowing review).

  Recall that for the remainder of the year, the White House was urging normalcy while many states kept locking down. It was an incredible confusion. The CDC was all over the map. I gained the distinct impression of two separate regimes in charge: Trump’s vs. the administrative state he could not control. Trump would say one thing on the campaign trail but the regulations and disease panic kept pouring out of his own agencies. 

  Birx admits that she was a major part of the reason, due to her sneaky alternation of weekly reports to the states. 

  After the heavily edited documents were returned to me, I’d reinsert what they had objected to, but place it in those different locations. I’d also reorder and restructure the bullet points so the most salient—the points the administration objected to most—no longer fell at the start of the bullet points. I shared these strategies with the three members of the data team also writing these reports. Our Saturday and Sunday report-writing routine soon became: write, submit, revise, hide, resubmit. 

  Fortunately, this strategic sleight-of-hand worked. That they never seemed to catch this subterfuge left me to conclude that, either they read the finished reports too quickly or they neglected to do the word search that would have revealed the language to which they objected. In slipping these changes past the gatekeepers and continuing to inform the governors of the need for the big-three mitigations—masks, sentinel testing, and limits on indoor social gatherings—I felt confident I was giving the states permission to escalate public health mitigation with the fall and winter coming.

  As another example, once Scott Atlas came to the rescue in August to introduce some good sense into this wacky world, he worked with others to dial back the CDC’s fanatical attachment to universal and constant testing. Atlas knew that “track, trace, and isolate” was both a fantasy and a massive invasion of people’s liberties that would yield no positive public-health outcome. He put together a new recommendation that was only for those who were sick to test – just as one might expect in normal life. 

  After a week-long media frenzy, the regulations flipped in the other direction. 

  Birx reveals that it was her doing:

  This wasn’t the only bit of subterfuge I had to engage in. Immediately after the Atlas-influenced revised CDC testing guidance went up in late August, I contacted Bob Redfield…. Less than a week later, Bob [Redfield] and I had finished our rewrite of the guidance and surreptitiously posted it. We had restored the emphasis on testing to detect areas where silent spread was occurring. It was a risky move, and we hoped everyone in the White House would be too busy campaigning to realize what Bob and I had done. We weren’t being transparent with the powers that be in the White House…

  One might ask how the heck she got away with this. She explains:

  [T]he guidance gambit was only the tip of the iceberg of my transgressions in my effort to subvert Scott Atlas’s dangerous positions. Ever since Vice President Pence told me to do what I needed to do, I’d engaged in very blunt conversations with the governors. I spoke the truth that some White House senior advisors weren’t willing to acknowledge. Censoring my reports and putting up guidance that negated the known solutions was only going to perpetuate Covid-19’s vicious circle. What I couldn’t sneak past the gatekeepers in my reports, I said in person.

  Most of the book consists of her explaining how she headed a kind of shadow White House dedicated to keeping the country in some form of lockdown for as long as possible. In her telling, she was the center of everything, the only person truly correct about all things, given cover by the VP and assisted by a handful of co-conspirators.. 

  Largely missing from the narrative is any discussion of the science gathering outside the bubble she so carefully cultivated. Whereas anyone could have noted the studies pouring out from February onward that threw cold water on her entire paradigm – not to mention 15 years, or make that 50 years, or perhaps 100 years of warnings against such a reaction – from scientists all over the world with vastly more experience and knowledge than she. She cared nothing about it, and evidently still does not. 

  It’s very clear that Birx had almost no contact with any serious scientist who disputed the draconian response, not even John Iaonnidis who explained as early as March 17, 2020, that this approach was madness. But she didn’t care: she was convinced that she was in the right, or, at least, was acting on behalf of people and interests who would keep her safe from persecution or prosecution. 

  For those interested, Chapter 8 provides a weird look into her first real scientific challenge: the seroprevalence study by Jayanta Bhattacharya published April 22, 2020. It demonstrated that the infection fatality rate – because infections and recovery was far more prevalent than Birx and Fauci were saying – was more in line with what one might expect from a severe flu but with a much more focused demographic impact. Bhattacharya’s paper revealed that the pathogen eluded all controls and would likely become endemic as every respiratory virus before. She took one look and concluded that the study had unnamed “fundamental flaws in logic and methodology” and “damaged the cause of public health at this crucial moment in the pandemic.” 

  And that’s it: that’s Birx grappling with science. Meanwhile, the article was published in the International Journal of Epidemiology and has over 700 citations. She saw all differences of opinion as an opportunity to go on the attack in order to intensify her cherished commitment to the lockdown paradigm. 

  Even now, with scientists the world over in outrage, with citizens furious at their governments, with governments falling, with regimes toppling and anger reaching a fevered pitch, while studies pour out by the day showing that lockdowns made no difference and that open societies at least protected their educational systems and economies, she is unmoved. It’s not even clear she is aware.

  Birx dismisses all contrary cases such as Sweden: Americans could not take that route because we are too unhealthy. South Dakota: rural and backwater (Birx is still mad that the brave Governor Kristi Noem refused to meet with her). Florida: oddly and without evidence she dismisses that case as a killing field, even though its results were better than California while the population influx to the state sets new records. 

  Nor is she shaken by the reality that there is not one single country or territory anywhere on the planet earth that benefitted from her approach, not even her beloved China which still pursues a zero-Covid approach. As for New Zealand and Australia: she (probably wisely) doesn’t mention them at all, even though they followed the Birx approach exactly.

  The story of the lockdowns is a tale of Biblical proportions, at once evil and desperately sad and tragic, a story of power, scientific failure, intellectual insularity and insanity, outrageous arrogance, feudalistic impulses, mass delusion, plus political treachery and conspiracy. It is real-life horror for the ages, a tale of how the land of the free became a despotic hellscape so quickly and unexpectedly. Birx was at the center of it, confirming all of your worst fears right here in a book anyone can buy. She is so proud of her role that she dares to take all credit, fully convinced that the Trump-hating media will love and protect her perfidies from exposure and condemnation.

  There is no getting around Trump’s own culpability here. He never should have let her have her way. Never. It was a case of fallibility matched by ego (he has still not admitted error), but it is a case of enormous betrayal that played off presidential character flaws (like many in his income class, Trump had always been a germaphobe) that ended up wrecking hope and prosperity for billions of people for many years to come. 

  I’ve tried for two years to put myself in that scene at the White House that day. It’s a hothouse with only trusted souls in small rooms, and the people there in a crisis have the sense that they are running the world. Trump might have drawn on his experience running a casino in Atlantic City. The weather forecasters come to say a hurricane is on the way, so he needs to shut it down. He doesn’t want to but agrees in order to do the right thing. 

  Was this his thinking? Perhaps. Perhaps too someone told him that China’s President Xi Jinping managed to crush the virus with lockdowns so he can too, just as the WHO said in its February 26 report. It’s also difficult in that environment to avoid the rush of omnipotence, temporarily oblivious to the reality that your decision would affect life from Maine to Florida to California. It was a catastrophic and lawless decision based on pretense and folly. 

  What followed seems inevitable in retrospect. The economic crisis, inflation, the broken lives, the desperation, the lost rights and lost hopes, and now the growing hunger and demoralization and educational losses and cultural destruction, all of it came in the wake of these fateful days. Every day in this country, even two and a half years later, judges are struggling to regain control and revitalize the Constitution after this disaster. 

  The plotters usually admit it in the end, taking credit, like criminals who cannot resist returning to the scene of the crime. This is what Dr. Birx has done in her book. But there are clearly limits to her transparency. She never explains the real reason for her resignation – even though it is known the world over – pretending like the entire Thanksgiving fiasco never happened and thus attempting to write it out of the history book that she wrote. 

  There is so much more to say and I hope this is one review of many because the book is absolutely packed with shocking passages. And yet her 525-page book, now selling at a 50% discount, does not contain a single citation to a single scientific study, paper, monograph, article, or book. It has zero footnotes. It offers no go-to authorities and displays not even a hint of humility that would normally be part of any actual scientific account. 

  And it nowhere offers an honest reckoning for what her influence over the White House and the states foisted on this country and on the world. As the country masks up yet again for a new variant, and is gradually being groomed for another round of disease panic, she can collect whatever royalties come from sales of her book while working at her new gig, a consultant to a company that makes air purifiers (ActivePure). In this latter role, she makes a greater contribution to public health than anything she did while she held the reins of power. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 07/17/2022 – 22:30

• Where The Contraceptive Pill Is Available Over-The-Counter
  Where The Contraceptive Pill Is Available Over-The-Counter

  The Food and Drug Administration has for the first time received an application by a pharmaceutical firm that looks to start selling a contraceptive pill as an over-the-counter medication. 

  According to the BBC, the move is unrelated to the recent Supreme Court decision that overturned Roe v. Wade, the previously long-standing precedent that guaranteed the right to abortion in the U.S.

  However, as Statista’s Katharina Buchholz notes, the development is nevertheless meaningful in the context of the post-Roe world where the Democrats and women’s organizations are scrambling to expand other services to those who have lost access to abortion. According to the OCs OTC Working Group, over-the-counter contraceptives can be a puzzle piece in this endeavor, especially since a codification of abortion rights on the federal level is looking evermore futile. The issue has already gained support from Democrats on Capitol Hill, but it is expected that opposition could form at least against removing the prescription requirement for minors.

  Looking at a world map of sales restrictions for contraceptive pills, developed countries typically require a prescription, while the medication is – either informally or formally – available over-the-counter almost everywhere else.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  According to the working group, offering the pill over-the-counter can significantly reduce unwanted gaps in contraceptive use, which can occur in areas where doctors’ appointments are hard to come by, clinics are far away or people are short on funds to pay for medical visits or extra travel. Some reasons for contraceptive gaps are more minute, according to the source, and can occur when women run out of pills at an inconvenient time or contraceptives are forgotten at home ahead of a trip.

  While some medical checks can be helpful before going on the pill, the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists as well as the American Medical Association and the American Academy of Family Physicians have spoken out in favor of the over-the-counter pill, saving that the benefits outweighed the risks especially for modern, well-researched contraceptive pills. Research has shown that checklist can be helpful for women to self-screen for potentially adverse health conditions, like high blood pressure, and find the right pill. According to a study on U.S. women who obtained over-the-counter pills in Mexico, a large majority of them continued to attend gynecological screenings. Of course, women can also still opt to discuss the right contraceptive method with their doctors before starting a regimen, with the added benefit that refills become much easier.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 07/17/2022 – 22:00

• Bill Moves Forward That Will Legalize Psychedelic Drugs In California
  Bill Moves Forward That Will Legalize Psychedelic Drugs In California

  Authored by Matt Agorist via TheFreeThoughtProject.com,

  Despite the overwhelming evidence showing that kidnapping and caging people for possessing illegal substances does nothing to prevent use and only leads to more crime and suffering, government is still hell bent on enforcing the war on drugs. Like a crack addict who needs to find his next fix, the state is unable to resist the temptation to kick in doors, shake down brown people, and ruin lives to enforce the drug war.

  

  Instead of realizing the horrific nature of the enforcement of prohibition, many cities across the country double down on the drug war instead of admitting failure. As we can see from watching it unfold, this only leads to more suffering and more crime. Luckily, there are cities, and now entire states in other parts of the country that are taking steps to stop this violent war and the implications for such measures are only beneficial to all human kind.

  Eight years ago, Colorado citizens—tired of the war on drugs and wise to the near-limitless benefits of cannabis—made US history by voting to legalize recreational marijuana. Then, in 2019, this state once again placed themselves on the right side of history as they voted to decriminalize magic mushrooms. But this was just the beginning and their momentum is spreading—faster and stronger, toward decriminalizing all plant-based psychedelics. Then, this year, the state of Oregon decriminalized all drugs.

  Now, another state is following suit, but not just with psilocybin— a bill in California is moving forward with a legalization measure for other psychedelics like mescaline cacti, ayahuasca and ibogaine.

  The California Assembly committee is holding a hearing next month on the bill to legalize the possession, personal use, and facilitated and supported use of the following substances by adults 21 and over.

  • psilocybin

  • psilocyn

  • MDMA

  • LSD

  • DMT

  • mescaline (excluding peyote)

  • ibogaine

  Senate Bill 519 was proposed last year but was put on hold in August to adjust the wording in order to ensure its passage. As the Tenth Amendment Center points out:

  Under the Controlled Substances Act (CSA) passed in 1970, the federal government maintains the complete prohibition of many of the drugs on SB519’s decriminalization list and heavily regulates others. Of course, the federal government lacks any constitutional authority to ban or regulate such substances within the borders of a state, despite the opinion of the politically connected lawyers on the Supreme Court. If you doubt this, ask yourself why it took a constitutional amendment to institute federal alcohol prohibition.

  In effect, the passage of SB519 would end criminal enforcement of laws prohibiting the possession of these drugs in California. As we’ve seen with marijuana and hemp, when states and localities stop enforcing laws banning a substance, the federal government finds it virtually impossible to maintain prohibition. For instance, FBI statistics show that law enforcement makes approximately 99 of 100 marijuana arrests under state, not federal law. By curtailing or ending state prohibition, states sweep part of the basis for 99 percent of marijuana arrests.

  Furthermore, figures indicate it would take 40 percent of the DEA’s yearly annual budget just to investigate and raid all of the dispensaries in Los Angeles – a single city in a single state. That doesn’t include the cost of prosecution either. The lesson? The feds lack the resources to enforce marijuana prohibition without state and local assistance, and the same will likely hold true with other drugs.

  “With mental health issues on the rise, it is time that California take an incremental and measured step to dismantle failed war on drugs policies by ending the criminalization of people that possess and use substances with immense healing potential,” the bill’s sponsor Sen. Scott Wiener said in a statement of the bill’s purpose.

  “It’s the plants that are going to bring us back to sanity. We’ve got to listen to their message and we’ve got to live reciprocally with nature and restore the natural order,” Susana Eager Valadez, director of the Huichol Center for Cultural Survival and Traditional Arts said after Oakland passed a similar decriminalization bill in 2019.

  The Assembly Appropriations Committee will hear the case for SB519 on Aug. 3. It must pass the committee by a majority vote before moving to the full Assembly for further consideration. Hopefully it does and California shifts from kidnapping and caging people for these substances, to focusing on using them for therapy.

  While California is certainly no bastion for freedom — especially with their draconian COVID-19 response — bills like this are a win for everyone as it requires far less money to help people than it does to incarcerate them.

  Now, cops can try to focus on real crimes instead of kidnapping and caging people who are trying to heal themselves with a plant.

  Supporters hope the decision will begin a nationwide discussion about decriminalizing plant-based drugs.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 07/17/2022 – 21:30

• In 2023, Global Emoji Count Could Grow To 3,491
  In 2023, Global Emoji Count Could Grow To 3,491

  Just in time for today’s World Emoji Day, new pictograms coming to phones in 2023 have been announced. As Statista’s Katharina Buchholz details below, next year will likely see the release of 31 new emojis including the pink heart, the hair pick and the Khanda, the symbol of Sikh faith. The update would grow the number of emojis to nearly 3,500 next year. The Unicode consortium has recommended the emojis for release, but a final decision is still outstanding.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  While 2021 saw the release of 217 new emojis, that number was lowered to just more than 100 in 2022 and now finally to the double digits for next year. While emojis that allow users to pick different skin colors or genders drive up the size of releases as they are counted individually, the number of non-customizable emojis has also decreased with each release. 2023 will also see the addition of the moose head, the donkey, the goose, the handheld fan, the jelly fish and the maracas, among others, with the high-five hands – both left and right-facing – being the only customizable emoji in the new batch. The pink heart is reportedly the most anticipated of the release as social media users have griped for some time about the availability of the simple heart icon in white, orange and even brown, but not pink.

  What emojis appear on people’s phones and on their social media platforms is not arbitrary but has been coordinated by the Unicode Consortium since 1995, when the first 76 pictograms were adapted by the U.S. nonprofit. The Consortium has been overseeing the character inventory of electronic text processing since 1991 and sets a standard for symbols, characters in different scripts and – last but not least – emojis, which are encoded uniformly across different platforms even though illustration styles may vary between providers.

  Even though the first Unicode listings predate them, a 1999 set of 176 simple pictograms invented by interface designer Shigetaka Kurita for a Japanese phone operator is considered to be the precursor of modern-day emojis. The concept gained popularity in Japan and by 2010, Unicode rolled out a massive release of more than 1,000 emojis to get with the burgeoning trend – the rest is history.

  Different skin colors have been available for emojis since 2015. 2014 saw the release of the anti-bullying emoji “eye in speech bubble” in cooperation with The Ad Council, which produces public service announcements in the United States. Regional flags came to the service in 2017. Same-sex couples and same-sex families have been available since the first major emoji-release in 2010. The 2021 release also included the rollout of non-binary options and interracial couples.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 07/17/2022 – 21:00

• "Weakest Links": March 2020 Was A Preview, Fragilities Are Now In Capital Markets And Liquidity Channels
  “Weakest Links”: March 2020 Was A Preview, Fragilities Are Now In Capital Markets And Liquidity Channels

  By Marcel Kasumovich, Head of Research at One River Asset Management

  Weakest Link I: Weak links lie within sectors and economies experiencing uninterrupted growth. Expectations are extrapolated from recent realities. Underwriting standards relax as growth hides risks. New Century Financial grew mortgage originations from $357mm in 1996 to $60bln in 2006. $1.2bln of capital. $17.4bln in credit lines. “CloseMore University” was the internal nickname. Originate. Sell. 60% dividend yield to discourage short-sellers. The sudden-stop in mortgage buying was the end of the line – the largest non-bank mortgage originator filed for bankruptcy April 2, 2007.

  Weakest Link II: Weak links exist without systemic financial risks. Take Freeport-McMoRan (FCX). Emerging markets, China, and commodities recovered swiftly from the 2008 crisis. Strong free cashflow encouraged FCX to diversify into shale oil and gas just as China was tightening credit, sparking a global recession. The market put high odds on FCX default – long-term debt fell to 40 cents on the dollar. The company deleveraged. Terrible for shareholders. Today’s supply constraints are born from the underinvestment in those weak-link moments.

  Weakest Link III: Commodities cratered in the 2015 downturn, expectations for terminal policy rates collapsed, and bond curves flattened. Long duration assets – broadly, like intellectual property – were the preferred investment. Buyouts surged: leverage companies with high free-cash-flow yields and use ‘cost synergies’ to deleverage. Even with rates low, those deals can be challenging. The Kraft-Heinz marriage in 2015 was funded by ballooning debt. But deleveraging was too slow. Shareholder value was destroyed. Another weak-link case study.

  Weakest Link IV: The clues for the next crisis are usually found in the solutions to the previous one. The post-GFC macro megatrend was to issue more debt and less equity. Less equity is less principal risk. Less principal risk lends itself to weaker underwriting. That trade was funded through capital markets after the GFC, not by banks who were in a regulatory penalty box. Dealers now have less than one-tenth the credit inventory than 2007. Fragilities are now in capital markets and liquidity channels. March 2020 was a preview. Policy either accommodates or intervenes.

  Weakest Link V: The leverage lending market – high yield bonds and leveraged loans – exploded to $3trln in 2021, double a decade earlier. Underwriting standards eroded. Covenants to protect creditors vanished. Opportunistic refinancing surge. But the tide is turning. JP Morgan took a $257mm write-down in Q2, stuck with loans they couldn’t move. Flexible pricing to discount unwanted loans is the new normal. Companies need to adjust – end buybacks, retain earnings. More principal risk. Fast or slow – excesses in leverage lending will be resolved.

  Weakest Link VI: Debtor countries are driving inflation. Creditor countries are not immune. Inflation flips the narrative – US dollar reserves are a captive tax against creditors, savers. China gross national savings is 45% of GDP versus 18% for the United States. Chinese households flocked to what they could – physical assets are an extreme 69.3% of their wealth. Real estate dominates. Underwriting is weak. Highly indebted builders are funded by presale deposits. Credit downgrades are now rampant. Demographics are a severe headwind. Regional economies are unbalanced, fueled by coal. Political, financial, and environment threats are acute.

  Weakest Link VII: The digital ecosystem is living its version of the GFC. Losses – some expected, many unforeseen – are being crystalized. It is small enough today with few direct linkages to the ‘real’ economy that digital is a spectator sport. But the areas of resiliency are the ones that can make the broader financial system stronger. Decentralized Autonomous Organizations brought risk-management changes to protocols at an unprecedented pace. It is for the public to see and learn from – its integration into the mainstream is part of the solution.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 07/17/2022 – 20:30

• Relentless Heat Wave Pummeling Texas And Central Plains To Bring Hottest Temperatures Of Year
  Relentless Heat Wave Pummeling Texas And Central Plains To Bring Hottest Temperatures Of Year

  Extreme heat threatens Texas and the Southern Plains to start the new work week, with temperatures forecasted to exceed 100 degrees Fahrenheit. 

  This new round of heat could be the hottest yet. Large swaths of interior Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas could see predicted highs reaching 110 degrees Fahrenheit and heat indexes much higher. 

  Although triple-digit temperatures are typical for the Central Plains and Texas in July and August, the frequency in the number of 100-degree days is above average. 

  Take, for instance, Tulsa, Oklahoma. The metro area has just recorded its 11th 100-degree day of the season — the average for the entire season is ten.  

  The National Weather Service (NWS) tweeted Sunday afternoon, “Excessive heat will continue this week across parts of Southern Region. Heat advisories and excessive heat warnings are in effect today across TX/OK.”

  

  The heat will increase days after the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which operates Texas’ electric power grid, asked customers to conserve energy on Monday and Wednesday. ERCOT blamed grid strains on record high electric demand and the lack of wind and solar power. 

  Reuters noted that a handful of manufacturers, including Toyota Motor Corp., Samsung Electronics Co Ltd., General Motors Co., and LyondellBasell’s Houston refinery, dialed back energy usage to preserve grid stability. 

  Tesla Motors even asked owners of its electric cars not to charge “between 3 pm and 8 pm … to help statewide efforts to manage demand.”

  The same areas are under a dangerous and expanding worsening drought. 

  

  ERCOT could be forced to take emergency action and ask customers to conserve power Monday to avoid rolling blackouts as a relentless heatwave strains power supplies. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 07/17/2022 – 20:00

• Bodycam Video, Report Exposes "Systemic, Egregious" Law Enforcement Failures In Uvalde School Mass Shooting
  Bodycam Video, Report Exposes “Systemic, Egregious” Law Enforcement Failures In Uvalde School Mass Shooting

  The Texas state House report into the Uvalde elementary school shooting in May that killed 21 people, including 19 children, said the massacre was unable to be stopped due to “systemic failures and egregious poor decision-making.” 

  

  The report obtained by the Texas Tribune attempts to piece together what happened during the 77 minutes after the alleged gunman, 18-year-old Uvalde High School dropout Salvador Ramos, entered Robb Elementary School until the point he was killed by a Border Patrol agent.

  “There is no one to whom we can attribute malice or ill motives. Instead, we found systemic failures and egregious poor decision making,” the report said, noting “shortcomings and failures of the Uvalde Consolidated Independent School District [CISD] and of various agencies and officers of law enforcement” and “an overall lackadaisical approach.”

  As Jack Phillips reports for The Epoch Times, those claims appear to coincide with statements made by top Texas officials days after the shootings.

  Texas Department of Public Safety Director Steve McCraw said May 27 that it was the “wrong decision” not to engage with the shooter, Salvador Ramos.

  Meanwhile, surveillance footage from Robb Elementary School released on July 12 shows officers waiting around more than 45 minutes before several officers approached the classroom where Ramos had entered.

  JUST IN: Exclusive body cam video from the law enforcement response to the Uvalde, TX school shooting. @ShimonPro obtained the video from the city’s Mayor.
  It shows just how chaotic the situation was: pic.twitter.com/VppNuJ1d7b

  — Ryan Nobles (@ryanobles) July 17, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The officers didn’t enter. It took more than 75 minutes for law enforcement to kill Ramos, 18, after he entered the building.

  This goes against EVERYTHING we who were in law enforcement were trained to do….

  [GUN SHOTS]

  Uvalde school police chief, trying to negotiate with an active shooter: “Sir, if you can hear me, please put your firearm down, sir.” pic.twitter.com/9UjbPY8cDf

  — Josh Campbell (@joshscampbell) July 17, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The report said that law enforcement failed to quickly confront the suspect and instead retreated to safety.

  “In this crisis, no responder seized the initiative to establish an incident command post,” it states.

  “Despite an obvious atmosphere of chaos, the ranking officers of other responding agencies did not approach the Uvalde CISD chief of police or anyone else perceived to be in command to point out the lack of and need for a command post, or to offer that specific assistance.”

  Some individual officers acted without instruction to try to reach the shooter and might have been able to do so if they had more backup, according to the paper.

  “Given the information known about victims who survived through the time of the breach and who later died on the way to the hospital, it is plausible that some victims could have survived if they had not had to wait 73 additional minutes for rescue,” the report reads.

  A force of 376 law enforcement officers responded to the mass shooting, according to the House panel, which said that there wasn’t clear leadership as they responded.

  Texas lawmakers on July 17 noted that Ramos was born in Fargo, North Dakota, before he was moved to Texas when he was a child. Ramos also may have been sexually abused as a child, the report states.

  Friends of the suspect, including a girlfriend, told investigators that Ramos became increasingly depressed during the COVID-19 pandemic. At one point, Ramos told the girlfriend that he wouldn’t live past age 18.

  Ramos in late 2021 also allegedly posted a video of himself holding a dead cat inside a bag. Footage also showed the future school shooter dry firing BB guns at people from a car, according to the report.

  In the wake of the shooting, which left 19 students and two teachers dead, congressional lawmakers used the tragedy to pass a gun control bill that included funding to bolster red flag laws and other measures, which was signed into law on June 25 by President Joe Biden.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 07/17/2022 – 19:30

• With Bearish Sentiment Off The Charts, $5.5 Billion In Daily Stock Buybacks Set To Flood Markets
  With Bearish Sentiment Off The Charts, $5.5 Billion In Daily Stock Buybacks Set To Flood Markets

  On the one hand, what was the most bullish case for markets starting this month fizzled with a bang, when after a solid start to July and the best start to Q3 since 1980, stocks resumed their bear market slide, only to recover some losses toward the end of the week. In any case, the barely 1% rise in the first half of July was at best meh considering the lofty expectations for what has traditionally been the best two-week period of the year…

  

  … for markets.

  

  So as attention turns from what was a big dud of a strong calendar period, to what is already shaping up as a disappointing Q2 earnings season (with virtually all banks missing expectations across the board), the bulls are once again in retreat, and nowhere is this more obvious than in hedge fund positioning which according to Goldman’s Scott Rubner, “is so low, it has officially fallen off my chart.” Rubner then invites readers to take a look at some of this stuff, and points to Goldman’s Prime Broker hedge fund exposure, Futures Positioning, CTA, Risk Parity, noting that “I don’t think there is more marginal position left to sell, given large hedges vs. fundamental positions already in play.”

  

  Indeed, digging into the dispersion between single stocks and macro products we find that a record divergence where there has been little shorting at the index and ETF level, but nearly record shorting at t the single stock level!

  

  Meanwhile, away from increasingly bearish institutions, we noted lat week that retail investors are close to capitulating, but not quite yet, and according to Goldman, households – which represent “the most important investor in the markets” have not yet capitulated and remain in HODL mode, with “that $1.325 Trillion worth of “cumulative net inflows” remaining a cement block.”

  

  And until that massive wall of inflows refuses to budge, there is little risk of a liquidation flush. On the contrary, with sentiment crashing through the floor, it is far more likely that stocks are due for another (bear market) rally and/or short squeeze. All they need is a catalyst, especially since markets digested the risk of a 100bps rate hike and actually rose on the news.

  That catalyst may be the return of buybacks: according to Goldman, stocks will see a whopping $300B worth of US Corporate buyback execution in Q3 (Q2 data is still TBD but Q1 was $312BN for all US stocks). Some math:

  • Days in Q3 = 61
  • Days in Q3 open window 55
  • $300B / 55 = $5.5B per day, every day, starting on July 22nd. VWAP + VOL muting.

  The fundamental question, does $5.5B worth of demand, help mute overall earnings guidance weakness per diem? According to Ruber “the answer is yes” but that’s to be expected, after all he is the resident Goldman permabull and the bank’s equivalent of JPM’s Marko Kolanovic.

  

  In conclusion, Rubner sums up current sentiment as follows:

  1. The bearish trade is very consensus, when I talk about very consensus, I mean very very consensus. I got more pings this week, than any week of 2022.
  2. The bearish view is already reflected in current market positioning and extreme over hedges.

  Bonus chart from Rubner who notes that “this is cash levels (money markets + mutual fund cash) – this is elevated and looking for dip alpha.”

  

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 07/17/2022 – 19:00

• Morgan Stanley: Central Banks Are Increasingly Out Of Balance
  Morgan Stanley: Central Banks Are Increasingly Out Of Balance

  By Seth Carpetner, global chief economist at Morgan Stanley

  Divergences in policy rates are now in focus, accentuated by the sharp depreciation of the yen and the euro. I want to turn attention to the divergent paths for central bank balance sheets.

  Fed quantitative tightening (QT) started in June, and the pace will double in September. While the ECB’s balance sheet has started to shrink a bit as targeted long-term refinancing operations (TLTROs) are repaid, the contraction is small, and prepaying TLTROs is very different than QT. And the shrinking may not last as the ECB confronts peripheral spreads. The BoJ could go in the opposite direction, and yield curve control (YCC) could turn into substantial QE if markets keep testing the Bank. These balance sheet differences will only become starker.

  In absolute terms, the ECB and the Fed have the largest balance sheets, with the BoJ a distant third. But relative to GDP, the BoJ has the biggest by far, with the ECB second. The Fed is an outlier on the low side, and as its QT continues and accelerates, the Fed’s footprint will contract further while the BoJ’s will likely grow.

  

  The Fed started trimming its balance sheet last month, and the pace of the unwind will accelerate in September to $60bn per month of Treasuries and $35bn per month of MBS. The Fed plans to let QT run in the background, and it seems very likely to me that balance sheet runoff keeps going even if the economy stalls (for a differing opinion from BofA’s Marc Cabana, see here). Chair Powell keeps reminding us that the FOMC wants the funds rate to be tool of first recourse, so if we get to the point of the economy faltering, there will be room to cut. Indeed, that narrative is priced into the futures curve already.

  For the ECB, the balance sheet trajectory is complicated. QT and TLTRO prepayments are not the same. Running off securities gives the market no choice—the central bank calls the shots. With TLTROs, commercial banks have the option to prepay at their discretion. Indeed, as our Europe team has noted, prepayments have been on the low side of expectations. Proper QT for the ECB is far off. Moreover, the ECB’s vow to contain peripheral spreads with a yet-to-be defined “anti-fragmentation tool” points to a potentially significant upside risk to the size of its balance sheet.

  The BoJ is at the other end of the spectrum. Relative to GDP (and even more so, relative to the size of the sovereign debt market), the BoJ’s balance sheet is already an outlier to the upside. And despite the fall in the yen, inflation is still lower in Japan than other DMs, leaving Governor Kuroda committed to his very accommodative policy stance. That mindset will confront slower global growth that weighs on Japanese growth. Against this backdrop, our Japan team revised the call for the timing of a shift in YCC. Whereas we had thought that a tweak would come in October, allowing the JGB curve to drift upward, we now expect YCC to be maintained until the second quarter of next year, after Governor Kuroda is replaced by a successor. With the market increasingly likely to test the BoJ, I see the risks to the balance sheet as skewed substantially to the upside.

  Markets have a lot to digest. Following the Covid shock, all major central banks were moving in the same direction but no longer, and market liquidity will be buffeted by severe crosscurrents. The irony is that the risks come from both larger and smaller balance sheets. In dollar markets, a lot more Treasuries and MBS will have to be absorbed as financing costs are rising. In JGBs, the BoJ already owns half the market, and more might be coming.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 07/17/2022 – 18:30

• Republicans Freak As Ukrainian-Born GOP Colleague Trash Talks Zelensky
  Republicans Freak As Ukrainian-Born GOP Colleague Trash Talks Zelensky

  House Republicans are seriously regretting giving Ukraine-born GOP Rep. Victoria Spartz a platform to speak on the war, after she started lobbing intense criticism at president Volodomyr Zelensky and his administration, drawing a rare rebuke last weekend from the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, which said she was “trying to earn extra political capital on baseless speculation.”

  

  According to Politico, Republicans within the GOP Conference have “widespread fear” that her outspoken posture will damage US-Ukraine relations, and that the MAGA wing of their party – which has seen growing opposition to US support of the Ukraine war – will point to Spartz’s comments as justification.

  Spartz, who has traveled to Ukraine about six time since the war began, released a statement earlier this months calling on Zelensky to “stop playing politics and theater” and “start governing to better support his military and local government.”

  She also accused President Joe Biden of “playing politics” and said that he needs to present a “clear strategy and align security assistance with our strategy.”

  

  Lastly, she called on lawmakers to “establish proper oversight of critical infrastructure and delivery of weapons and aid,” a concern shared among progressives over the possibility that the weapons could end up in the wrong hands.

  The extraordinary statement comes after Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.) asked President Joe Biden to brief Congress on years-old allegations against Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak. Earlier this week, the freshman lawmaker also slammed both Biden and Zelenskyy for their approaches to the ongoing war, infuriating officials in both countries. -Politico

  One anonymous GOP lawmaker who serves on the House Foreign Affairs Committee told Politico “Her naiveness is hurting our own people,” adding “It is not helpful to what we’re trying to do and I’m not sure her facts are accurate … We have vetted these guys.”

  Another senior House Republican who spoke on condition of anonymity simply said “What the fuck.”

  Panic Spreads:

  A third House Republican granted anonymity to speak candidly about Spartz said she has a reputation for elbowing her way into briefings and meetings for committees she doesn’t belong to, like the Foreign Affairs panel, where multiple members have tried to address her comments behind closed doors.

  The Biden administration is even getting involved — another sign of growing worries that Spartz’s comments may damage cohesion among the Western coalition in defense of Kyiv. A Foreign Affairs Committee aide, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the U.S. intelligence community is planning to brief Spartz about her claims in a classified setting Friday morning. -Politico

  “I don’t share her criticisms,” said Seen Lindsey Graham (R-SC), who has collaborated with Spartz on legislation concerning Ukraine. “I believe that the Zelenskyy government and the Ukrainian people have risen to the moment. It is in our national security interest to stand with the Ukrainian people and their elected leadership.”

  Spartz defended herself to Politico in a statement:

  “Growing up in Ukraine and visiting six times since the war started, I have a comprehensive understanding of the situation on the ground,” adding “The stakes are too high to be reactive without deliberation — as intended for our institution.”

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 07/17/2022 – 18:00

• Logistics Warehouse Activity May Cool As Interest Rates Heat Up
  Logistics Warehouse Activity May Cool As Interest Rates Heat Up

  By Mark Solomon of FreightWaves

  Nothing in the second-quarter data indicates that the 12-year bull market for U.S. logistics warehousing, and the trends of e-commerce growth and the need for businesses to maintain high inventory levels that have driven the surge, are close to ending. 

  

  The industrial construction pipeline hit an unprecedented 699 million square feet in the quarter, up 112% from pre-pandemic levels and 177% above the 10-year average, according to Cushman & Wakefield, a real estate services firm. New leasing activity for the year is tracking to exceed 800 million square feet, which would mark only the second year ever at such a lofty perch, Cushman said. 

  Nationwide vacancy rates plunged in the quarter to 3.1%, 120 basis points below a year ago, according to Cushman data. Every U.S. region that Cushman canvasses reported under 4% vacancy rates for the second consecutive quarter. Twenty markets reported vacancy rates of less than 2%.

  In Chicago, the country’s largest industrial market with more than 1.2 billion square feet of inventory, 8.1 million square feet were developed, the greatest second-quarter completion total in the market’s history, according to Colliers International Group Inc, a real estate services firm. According to Colliers data, 20 projects totaling 8.1 million square feet commenced during the quarter in the Chicago market.

  Colliers said that the Chicago market experienced in the quarter an uptick in vacancy rates for speculative development, where projects are undertaken with no formal end-user commitment, as well as a drop in leasing activity for the category. However, those changes reflect how tight the market has become and are likely more of a blip on the radar than a meaningful trend.

  Two weeks into the third quarter, though, anecdotal evidence is pointing to a break in the action. Institutional investors who have pumped billions of dollars into the industrial market in search of higher yields in a low interest rate environment have hit the pause button, concerned about how to price real estate returns in an environment of higher interest rates and of the future direction of borrowing costs with the Federal Reserve in aggressive tightening mode. 

  Jack Rosenberg, Colliers’ Chicago-based national director of logistics and transportation who represents industrial tenants, said that “cap rates,” which determine the annual return on a property’s investment by dividing its value with its net operating income, have begun to creep up due to the higher cost of money. A higher cap rate means the investment will likely yield less than it would have if interest rates were lower.  

  Lack of clarity into the speed, extent and duration of rate hikes will slow, if not stop, development, Rosenberg said. That’s because no one knows what cap rates will look like in 12 to 18 months when the project is leased and is ready to be sold. One major developer and a significant investor, neither of whom Rosenberg would identify, are in “pencils down” mode, industry lingo for a corporate pause. Projects slated to begin this fall are being pushed into next spring. In the meantime, sale prices per square foot have been dropping, and buyers are requesting changes in their favor to contractual terms of projects currently under contract.

  The angst over the Fed’s actions extends to developers as well. Lisa DeNight, national industrial research director at Newmark Group, a real estate services firm, said higher capital costs are leading some developers to halt or abandon projects. Some developers are even selling development sites. Unsurprisingly, “new construction starts have begun to slow, but still remain historically elevated,” she said.

  A different cycle

  This isn’t the first rate tightening cycle the industrial market has managed through since 2010. What’s different about this cycle is that it dovetails with construction cost inflation, labor shortages and long lead times for materials due to continued global supply chain disruptions. 

  As bottlenecks ease and commodity prices decline due to market expectations that higher rates will curtail end demand, more supply will hit the markets and will do so at lower prices. However, that won’t occur until 2023 at the earliest, according to Newmark.

  The average permitting and construction process for new industrial projects is taking five months longer than it did in 2019, DeNight said, and the average order lead times for a critical commodity like roofing materials remain at 30 to 50 weeks. Progress on obtaining necessary building permits continues to be hamstrung by understaffed local governments.

  “Every stage of the construction timeline has been hampered by two years of challenges that are unlikely to subside during the balance of 2022,” DeNight said.

  Despite higher rates, most projects now underway will be seen through to completion, said John Morris, Americas president of industrial & logistics for real estate services firm CBRE Group Inc. Morris said that the 12- to 18-month lead time for end-to-end project completions means that it will take five or six quarters for the impact of rate hikes to be dramatically felt in the industrial market.

  For now, occupier demand remains strong as e-commerce sales stay elevated and as tenants ensure they can occupy facilities ahead of the peak holiday season. Overall occupier demand is about 95% of what it was at this time a year ago, Morris said. Any slowdown will come from the supply side and not from demand, he said. 

  Rosenberg said that none of his clients have indicated they are putting their leasing needs on hold, although he acknowledged that the people he works directly with are typically the last to know if a project is being shelved.

  Carolyn Salzer, Americas head of logistics and industrial research at Cushman, said the supply-demand scales continue to favor lessors. “Right now, there just isn’t enough space out there for occupiers in general,” Salzer said. “What we have heard is that if a tenant needs to be in a market, they will make it work.” 

  Tenants will have more leverage should supply begin to exceed demand, which, if it happens, will be a 2023 story,  she added.

  The variable in all this is whether higher rates will trigger a recession, which could trigger a sustainable drop in consumer demand. Should consumers pull back, occupiers’ appetites will dull quickly, leading to a decline in rents and an increase in vacancy rates. However, should the economy avoid a contraction and new development continues to slow, then competition for available space is likely to surge and rents will soar.  

  The many crosscurrents buffeting industrial real estate have produced a degree of murkiness that stakeholders are unaccustomed to. When asked for directional clarity, Rosenberg replied, “I’ll say, ‘Who the hell knows’ because nobody knows.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 07/17/2022 – 17:30

• Did The Swiss Central Bank Quietly Move Its Gold
  Did The Swiss Central Bank Quietly Move Its Gold

  By Jan Nieuwenhuijs of Gainesville Coins

  In Switzerland it’s a state secret where the central bank stores its gold domestically. From all the information I could gather I conclude the Swiss central bank primarily stores its gold—and that of foreign central banks and the Bank for International Settlements—on Bundesplatz 1 in the capital Berne.

  This vault may be one of the largest globally. However, due to a renovation the vault is now empty. The metal has temporarily been transferred to a federal bunker near Kandersteg, deep in the Swiss mountains.

  

  What led me to research this topic is a multi-year delay of a gold shipment by the Austrian central bank (OeNB) from London to Switzerland. From reading my previous article on this subject, some could be tempted to think OeNB’s gold is gone, or that the Bank Of England is obstructing the transfer. According to my analysis, though, London isn’t the problem. OeNB’s shipment was supposed to be in Berne by now, but due to a delay in the renovation of the vault the gold hasn’t been transferred yet.

  To get to the bottom of this we will examine the vaults of the Swiss central bank in this article. In a following article I will present more proof of OeNB postponing to ship metal to the vault in Berne.

  The first two chapters serve as an introduction. If you are short on time you can skip to the third.

  The Swiss Have Been Digging Caves for Centuries

  If there is one country that excels in building tunnels and caverns, it’s Switzerland. Berne was founded around 1200 on a peninsula in the river Aare. The peninsula is shaped as a hill due to the wear of the water. Enclosed by the Aare, the Old City could be easily defended by a wall at the West. The safety within this natural fortress allowed the city to flourish.

  

  Many of the early inhabitants of Berne had vineyards outside of the city. Already in the 13th century cellars were being constructed below the buildings in the city, for more room and the right climate to preserve wine. The soil in Berne, consisting mostly of gravel and sand put there by glaciers during the last Ice Age, is well suited for constructing cellars. The weight of the ice caused the soil to compress¹. Today, many of the cellars are being used as bars, restaurants, shops, and more.

  

  Since 1983 the Old City of Berne is UNESCO world heritage site for its exceptionally coherent planning concept. Berne has always retained its historical character, presenting variations of the late Baroque period and Late Middle Ages. The Old City continues to be a place for living, working and commerce.

  The first tunnel in Switzerland was built in 1707 to ease the passage over the Gotthard Massif Mountain in the Alps. Ever since, more road, railway, waterway, and maintenance tunnels have been built, by now totaling an astonishing 2,000 kilometers in length.

  

  In the 1880s the Swiss started to build a line of fortifications in the Alps for the army to retreat and defend their country against a foreign invasion. In the Second World War a network of military tunnels and bunkers was added.

  During the Cold War, in 1963, Switzerland undertook to provide bunkers for all citizen to take shelter in case of a nuclear attack. At one point, there were an estimated 300,000 fallout shelters. After the Cold War many of the bunkers in the Alps were considered obsolete. Some were reopened as hotels and museums, or found other uses.

  Switzerland’s Vast Gold Market

  Switzerland is one of the largest physical gold markets globally. Not very much is known about it though, because discretion is one of the services that make this market attractive.

  Before the 1930s banking secrecy was an unwritten rule in Switzerland. This rule was enshrined in legislation in 1935, which, together with political neutrality, made Swiss banks attractive for foreigner capital: currency, bank deposits, and gold.

  When in 1968 the Gold Pool collapsed and the London Bullion Market closed for two weeks, Swiss banks reacted aggressively by trying to take over market share from London. Refining capacity began shifting from London to Switzerland. Currently, there are no London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) accredited refineries left in the U.K., while in Switzerland there are four giants: Valcambi, PAMP, Argor-Heraeus, and Metalor.

  Every year roughly 2,000 tonnes of gold moves through the Swiss refineries, measured by non-monetary gold import and export.

  

  Next to the vaults of the refineries, there are vaults of commercial banks², secure logistics companies (Brinks, Loomis, Malca-Amit, etc.), and the Swiss central bank. In addition, after the Cold War several military bunkers in the Alps have been sold to niche vaulting companies that built storage rooms for precious metals and other valuables in the deep caverns.

  There is no centralized gold exchange in Switzerland, so all trade is done over-the-counter. Because a few large Swiss bullion banks have their head office in the center of Zurich, an often used short-hand reference to the Swiss gold market is, “Zurich.” However, this can be misleading as not all physical trading is concentrated in Zurich. For example:

  • There are refineries in the far South of Switzerland and in the West.
  • Brinks has gold vaults in Zurich, Geneva, and Chiasso. Malca-Amit has vaults in Zurich and Geneva. Loomis told me it “can store gold all over Switzerland.”
  • Numerous other vaults can be found in old military bunkers in the Alps across the South.
  • Retail dealers and safety deposit boxes are all over the country.
  • Many watchmakers are in the West.

  And, as we will see below, monetary gold is (normally) stored in Berne.

  Officially, the domestic gold storage locations of the Swiss central bank (Schweizerische National Bank, SNB) are a state secret. In April 2013, SNB revealed 20% of its 1,040 tonnes of gold is stored at the Bank of England, 10% is at the Bank of Canada, and 70% is held domestically “in its own vaults.” Questions in parliament about the domestic storage locations are not answered for security reasons. Regardless of the locations of the vaults, SNB does confirm it stores gold for foreign central banks.

  The Swiss Central Bank’s Main Gold Vault Is in Berne

  There is a considerable amount of evidence that most of SNB’s gold has always been stored in Berne. An important source I have used for my research is a book published by SNB in 2012, celebrating the 100th anniversary of their head office in Berne. The title of the book is, “Die Schweizerische Nationalbank in Bern Eine illustrierte Chronik” (DSN hereafter).

  When SNB was erected in 1907, it was decided to build two head offices to distribute the balance of power. One in Berne, the political center and capital of Switzerland, and one in Zurich, the financial center. SNB was divided into three departments of which Department I and III settled in Zurich. Department II in Berne took responsibility for all issues relating bank notes, the management of gold reserves (the receipt, dispatch and storage of gold bars and coins), and dealings with the federal administration.

  The head office in Berne at Bundesplatz 1, with its gold vault in the basement, was completed in 1912. It’s located in the Old City next to the Federal Palace that houses the Federal Parliament and Federal Council.

  

  

  

  After SNB established itself on Bundesplatz, it attracted commercial banks with political as well as financial interest to the area. On Google Maps it shows SNB is still surrounded by commercial banks. Having banks in close proximity can have eased SNB’s gold dealings in Berne.

  

  Until and through the Second World War, Berne retained its standing as a monetary gold hub. In the 1990s, a commission investigated SNB’s role in World War II regarding gold dealings with the German central bank (Reichsbank). The final report discloses that during the war many central banks had used SNB’s vault. The following tables show the Reichsbank’s deposits at SNB, and to which entities the Reichsbank sold. Clearly, these deposits and trades were done at the SNB vault in Berne.

  

  

  During and after the Second World War, SNB’s gold reserves went up significantly. What’s not mentioned in DNS is that shortly after the war the main building went through two renovations.

  

  In 1946, the first basement floor was modified, according to the building archive of the city of Berne. No details of the renovation are publicly available, but given SNB’s gold reserves were swelling and the vault was in the basement of the building, we may assume the vault was renovated. In 1951 and 1952 an underground air raid shelter (luftschutzkeller) was constructed. The same architect that renovated the vault in 1946, Otto Brechbühl, was hired to build the shelter.

  But did he built a shelter, or add extra floors to the vault?

  The authors of DSN state Department II was in need of space in the 1950s. “New safes were installed in the early 1950s,” they write, which could refer to Brechbühl’s work. In the late 1950s, “the main cash desk also requested an underground bullion office between the main building and the Bundeshaus Nord [the building on the east side of the main building where SNB rented offices] for shipping and packaging the gold.”

  The authors of DSN, of course, cannot be fully truthful. Security details and other information about the vault must be concealed.

  

  Above is a drawing of the building from 1960 taken from DNS. It displays the main building on the right, a segment of the Bundeshaus Nord on the left, and (in blue) the newly planned bullion office. We can also see the shelter (luftschutzturm) in dotted lines.

  In the drawing the shelter is labeled as an “air raid tower.” The word “tower” implies there are multiple floors. Interestingly, the lower compartments of the shelter have no floor, indicating the drawing is incomplete. So why doesn’t the drawing show the entire shelter? Why is the shelter more than 15 meters deep? Why is only the shelter drawn in dotted lines? What’s so special about this structure?

  According to DNS the bullion office was constructed from 1961 until 1963, a renovation which isn’t recorded in the building archive of the city of Berne. The reason why both records are incomplete is secrecy. I tried to obtain plans, drawings, and building permits from the renovation in 1946, 1951–1952, 1961–1963, and all others that followed, from the building archive and SNB’s own archive. Without exception I was told all documents are classified as “SECRET” or “sensitive,” and can’t be viewed.

  Most likely the dotted lines in the drawing above don’t show a shelter, but the entrance from the bullion office to a vault consisting of several floors stretching out beneath the old basement and beyond.

  

  For a fact the vault is larger than what’s shown on the drawing from 1960. In 2018 Bluewin journalists managed to view drawings from Berne’s geoinformation department. Below is a screenshot of the video showing a plan of Bundesplatz. An expert concludes SNB’s basement stretches out about 10 meters underneath the square. No (public) record reveals the basement has been enlarged underneath the square. What else has been omitted?

  

  A retiree named Othmar Dillon, who used to work at Berne’s cadastral survey (Amtliche Vermessung), told newspaper Der Bund he had been inside the vault on Bundesplatz 1 multiple times since the 1970s. He saw the gold there. According to Dillon the vault reached down the level of the river Aare, which would imply it’s 40 meters deep in total. Depending on the number of floors built, and the sharpness of Dillon’s memory, the gold vault could be up to 10,000 square meters.

  The article from 2008 quoting Dillon was lost from the internet but Der Bund gave me approval to republish it (download here). I checked with Berne’s resident’s database and Dillon does indeed exist. Sadly, I haven’t been able to contact him.

  Other sources substantiate the vault on Bundesplatz 1 is sizable. In 2013 a journalist from SRF was allowed to film SNB’s monetary gold. Below is a screenshot of the video that was published.

  

  The video is highly likely from inside the vault on Bundesplatz 1, and not some other vault. Photographer Martin Ruetschi was allowed to enter SNB’s vault in Berne in 2001 (after pushing for ten years). If one compares Ruetschi’s pictures (see below) with the video, they both show the same racks for the gold and the same floor tiles. Removing more doubt is a copy from Ruetschi’s series in DNS.

  Ruetschi said he was “led through a long labyrinth of corridors and finally through the thick vault door” before he could take the pictures. That sounds there are more than two floors in the basement.

  

  

  The forklift in SRF’s video reveals there must be a heavy-duty elevator down to the vault. Forklifts themselves can weigh up to several tonnes because they use counterweights for the load they carry on the fork. Observing the latest drawing from 1960 and recent images from Google Street View makes me think there is an elevator near the entrances for armored trucks on the south side of the building, leading down to the bullion office and floors below. Right about where the “shelter tower” is.

  

  The forklift also confirms this is a large and active vault, storing gold not only for SNB but also for foreign central banks and the Bank for International Settlements (and Swiss bank notes).

  On the website of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), they state they offer central banks, “gold location exchange, safekeeping and settlement: loco London, Berne or New York.” The reference to a vault in Berne, which the BIS uses since the 1930s, must be at Bundesplatz 1.

  In the 1970s, SNB continued expanding its presence on Bundesplatz. In 1971 it bought a property north of the main building: the Kaiserhaus. Due to stringent planning codes in the Old City, SNB had to think of a construction concept in line with the city’s aesthetic and functional needs, as well as its own. It was decided the ground and first floor of the Kaiserhaus were rented to shops. The upper floors could be used for offices and other purposes. A basement was also constructed. “The most difficult work was in the basement,” the authors of DNS write.

  There is a photo of a tunnel connecting the main building and Kaiserhaus on page 90 of DNS. The floor of the tunnel looks to be covered with soft plastic, though, which is not suited for a forklift. I don’t think there is a gold vault underneath the Kaiserhaus.

  

  Kandersteg’s Federal Bunker

  In 1999 Swiss journalists discovered that the government had arranged a classified command facility near Kandersteg in the Alps, 40 miles south of Berne, to hide during a nuclear attack. Since 2004 the exact coordinates of the facility are publicly known.

  

  For nearly two decades not a word was written about any gold being stored at the bunker dubbed “K20.” Then, in 2018, independent journalist Henry Habegger reported K20 also incorporates an SNB vault. People familiar with the matter shared with Habegger that when K20 was built, SNB took the opportunity to acquire a nuclear bomb-proof vault for its gold reserves. K20 has room for 6,000 tonnes of gold. The people that live in Kandersteg have often seen armored trucks driving through, escorted by army vehicles in full gear, including machine guns.

  According to my analysis, all gold inside the vault in Berne has been moved to Kandersteg but will return within a few years. Here’s why.

  In February 2015 an extensive construction project began to renovate SNB’s main building and the Kaiserhaus in Berne. At the time of writing, the main building is finished (everything above ground), but the Kaiserhaus construction is still ongoing. Below are images of the renovation from Google Street View, Maps, and Earth taken in 2017 and 2022.

  

  

  

  A white fence is visible around the Kaiserhaus (at Amthausgasse) and in front of one of the entrances for armored trucks on the south side of the main building. Together with other evidence, this tells me the vault is out of service.

  One, a Swiss journalist that helped me during my research—he prefers to stay anonymous—spoke to one of SNB’s directors at a media dinner in 2016. Regarding the renovation the director told him that, “you can assume that the gold is at a secure place.” He was told the gold was moved out for the renovation.

  Two, in 2015, the Austrian court of audits stated OeNB—then and now storing 6 tonnes of gold in Switzerland—would have limited access to audit its metal in Switzerland due to renovation work at the depository until 2018. Afterwards the renovation audits could take place normally. The earliest projections by SNB were that the renovation would be finished late 2018. (In a following article I will show more evidence OeNB’s 6 tonnes in Switzerland is currently at an SNB vault, and another 50 tonnes is destined to an SNB vault.)

  Conclusion

  It can’t be a coincidence that OeNB has limited access at its SNB vault in Switzerland, Bundesplatz 1 is renovated around the same time, and a story about an active gold vault in Kandersteg pops up in Swiss media around the same time as well. Normally, OeNB’s gold, other foreign central banks’ gold, the BIS’s gold, and most of SNB’s gold is at Bundesplatz 1, but due to the renovation it was moved to K20.

  I conclude SNB prefers to keep most of its gold in Berne, because historically this is the main vault. After the Second World War, when SNB’s reserves ballooned, vaults could have been built anywhere in Switzerland, still SNB decided to enlarge the vault at Bundesplatz.

  Furthermore, the fact OeNB’s gold in Kandersteg will be returned to Berne, tells me SNB’s own gold will be returned as well (or at least what was stored in Berne previously). Why return OeNB’s gold but not the Swiss gold? If the vault in Kandersteg, mind you it can hold 6,000 tonnes, was superior to the one in Berne, SNB could have told OeNB the vault was moved permanently. New custodial contracts could have been signed, and the Austrians could have been granted full access to audit their gold in Kandersteg. But that’s not what happened. Not in 2015 when the renovation in Berne started, and not in 1999 when K20 was completed.

  Can it be SNB also has a vault in Zurich and in other places? Yes. There is just very little evidence any of these vaults play a significant role in storing metal belonging to SNB, foreign central banks, and the BIS. Needless to say, I will report accordingly if I find new evidence.

  The renovation in Berne is now set to be completed in 2024. Then, or just before, the gold can be returned to Bundesplatz 1. OeNB will have normal auditing access, and it will send another 50 tonnes to Switzerland.

  Any remaining blanks and questions will be addressed in my following article (“Why Austria’s Monetary Gold Transfer to Switzerland Is Delayed”) here on Gainesville Coins.

  Notes

  1. Information on the history of Berne’s cellars I have mostly based on private communication with archeologist Armand Baeriswyl, Lecturer in Medieval and Modern Archaeology at the University of Bern.

  2. Several commercial banks have vaults in the center of Zurich, such as Zürcher Kantonalbank and Bank Julius Baer, that store gold to back ETFs (source: Ronan Manly from Bullionstar). There are also large gold vaults near Zurich airport in a bonded warehouse. Two commercial banks that have their head office in Berne, Valiant Bank and Berner Kantonalbank (BEKB), have disclosed to have underground vaults below their buildings at Bundesplatz, though these appear to be mainly used for safety deposit boxes. From Berner Zeitung in 2020 (Google Translate):

  The two Bern banks, Valiant and Berner Kantonalbank, also have their headquarters on Bundesplatz in downtown Bern. The vaults with the customer’s lockers are located in the basements of the two banks, as Valiant spokesman Marc Andrey and BEKB spokesman Florian Kurz say.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 07/17/2022 – 17:30

• Housing Market Peaks: Home Prices Finally Drop From All-Time Highs
  Housing Market Peaks: Home Prices Finally Drop From All-Time Highs

  If it was the Biden admin’s intention to crush the housing market (with the help of the Fed’s rate hikes) and spark a powerful recession just so it can lower inflation, well “mission accomplished.”

  Just one month after we warned that a Housing Crash was Imminent as “Mortgage Rates Explode Price Cuts Soar And Buyer Demand Collapses”, when as a result of surging 30Y mortgage rates which have spiked at the fastest rate on record…

  

  … we noted that the housing market had just gotten the most unffordable in history…

  

  … setting the stage for a sharp repricing lower in home prices.

  Late last week we got confirmation from Redfin, which reported that  the median sale price for U.S. homes came down 0.7% from its record-breaking June peak during the four weeks ending July 10.

  

  And with the housing market undergoing a shock repricing, as bid-ask levels soar in search of marginal prices, home sales fell nearly 16% from a year ago, the largest decline since May 2020. The shift has also started impacting sale prices: They’re still growing by double digits, but the 11% year-over-year increase is the smallest in nearly two years.

  Sellers’ asking prices also came down 3% from their May peak as the share of homes with price drops hit another new high.

  

  According to a separate RedFin report, the number of homes for sale nationwide in June rose 2% – the first annual increase since July 2019, before the pandemic-fueled homebuying frenzy sapped the market of available homes and sent buyers into bidding wars for nearly every listing. Now, supply has built up as the combination of 5.5%-plus mortgage rates, high home prices and a faltering economy push more buyers to the sidelines, thereby creating a more balanced market.

  Meanwhile, as sellers slowly start to realize that the winds have turned and are about to flood home supply posted its first year-over-year increase since August 2019 as pending sales continued to slide. As shown in the next chart, active listings (the number of homes listed for sale at any point during the period) rose 1.3% year over year—the largest increase since August 2019.

  

  “The country’s economic woes have already cooled the housing market, and they’re likely to continue dampening demand,” said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather. “The Fed has signaled it may increase interest rates further to combat stubbornly high inflation, which could harm consumer confidence, and lower stock prices mean fewer prospective homebuyers can afford a down payment. I advise sellers to commit: If you decide to sell, do it quickly before demand potentially falls further. And price carefully—this is not the time to test the waters. You’ll do more harm than good if you overprice and have to do a price reduction or take the home off the market.”

  Worse, as liquidity-sensitive homeowners rush to sell ahead of the herd, Redfin has recorded more price drops than any time since at least 2015…

  

  … and the average home will soon sell for less than its listing price: in July, the average sale-to-list price ratio, which measures how close homes are selling to their asking prices, declined to 101.6%. In other words, the average home sold for 1.6% above its asking price. This was down from 102.2% a year earlier.

  

  As Redfin concludes, “these changes in the housing market can be attributed to buyers reaching their limit on costs—not just of homes and mortgages, but also food, transportation and energy.”

  ”Inflation and high mortgage rates are taking a bite out of homebuyer budgets,“ said Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather. “Few people are able to afford homes costing 50% more than just two years ago in some areas, so homes are beginning to pile up on the market. As a result, prices are starting to come down from their all-time highs. We expect this environment of reduced competition and declining home prices to continue for at least the next several months.”

  

  Here are some more details from the latest Redfin report:

  • The median home sale price was up 12% year over year to $393,449. This was down 0.7% from the peak during the four-week period ending June 19. A year ago the median price rose 0.9% during the same period. The year-over-year growth rate was down from the March peak of 16%.
  • The median asking price of newly listed homes increased 14% year over year to $397,475, but was down 2.8% from the all-time high set during the four-week period ending May 22. Last year during the same period median prices were down just 0.9%.
  • The monthly mortgage payment on the median asking price home hit $2,387 at the current 5.51% mortgage rate, up 44% from $1,663 a year earlier, when mortgage rates were 2.88%. That’s down slightly from the peak of $2,487 reached during the four weeks ending June 12.
  • Pending home sales were down 14% year over year, the largest decline since May 2020.
  • New listings of homes for sale were down 1.7% from a year earlier.
  • Active listings (the number of homes listed for sale at any point during the period) rose 1.3% year over year—the largest increase since August 2019.
  • 43% of homes that went under contract had an accepted offer within the first two weeks on the market, down from 47% a year earlier.
  • 29% of homes that went under contract had an accepted offer within one week of hitting the market, down from 33% a year earlier.
  • Homes that sold were on the market for a median of 18 days, flat from a year earlier and up slightly from the record low of 15 days set in May and early June.
  • 51% of homes sold above list price, down from 54% a year earlier.
  • On average, 7.1% of homes for sale each week had a price drop, a record high as far back as the data goes, through the beginning of 2015.

  There’s more: while rents are still rising by double digits year over year, the latest Apartment List data shows that the rate of increase is now the lowest since Aug 2021, a reversal which the Owner Equivalent Rent metric which is a lagging indicator, won’t notice for at least another 6-9 months.

  

  The bottom line is that the market is now is a mixed bag for buyers. They’re seeing higher monthly housing payments than earlier this year due to comparatively high mortgage rates but facing less competition for homes, which often allows them to make less risky offers that include protections like inspection and appraisal contingencies.

  Meanwhile, sellers are starting to move for the exits with the more enterprising among them willing to take aggressive price cuts to offload inventory.

  Finally, and as usual, the Fed is about 9 months behind the curve, and even though prices have now peaked and will decline sequentially for the foreseeable future, Powell & Co will be hiking rates for many months to come, confirming that the Fed will be tightening aggressively into the next housing crisis.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 07/17/2022 – 17:00

• The Bill Gurley Chronicles: Part 3
  The Bill Gurley Chronicles: Part 3

  By Alex of the Macro Ops Substack

  What if there was a way to distill all the knowledge that someone’s written over the last 25 years into one, easy-to-read document? And what if that person was a famous venture capital investor known for betting big on companies like Uber, Snapchat, Twitter, Discord, Dropbox, Instagram, and Zillow (to name a few)?  Well, that’s what I’ve done with Bill Gurley’s blog Above The Crowd. 

  Gurley is a legendary venture capital investor and partner at Benchmark Capital. His blog oozes valuable insights on VC investing, valuations, growth, and marketplace businesses.  This document is past two to the one-stop-shop summary of every blog post Gurley’s ever written, part 1 can be found here and part 2 is here.

  May 29, 2009: Will Apple Make An Actual Television? Makes Sense To Me (Link)

  Summary: The thought of Apple (AAPL) making a physical TV seems wild. Yet according to Gurley, there are six reasons why this wasn’t such a farfetched concept. First, TV is a commodity business and AAPL excels at charging a premium on an otherwise commoditized product (i.e., MP3 players). Second, AAPL already makes large iPads that people love. Creating an even larger piece that AAPL fanboys would love to hang in their home makes sense. Third, TV will add an internet stack and AAPL might have to make their own hardware to support that. Fourth, It’s a huge market (Gurley estimates ~$2.5B in sales). Fifth, the TV would integrate with the Apple iOS, creating a seamless experience. Finally, AAPL has the retail footprint to sell its physical TVs. 

  Favorite Quote: “For Apple, the fact that the TV business has become a commodity business will not be a roadblock. In PCs and MP3 players, they have proven they can charge a huge premium and extract enviable gross margins even where others have starved.”

  June 2, 2009: A Really Interesting Online Education Company In Korea: Megastudy (Link)

  Summary: Education feels like one of the last industries not hit with the capitalist bug. Maybe it’s the massive bureaucratic red tape or the incumbent teacher’s union. Regardless, Gurley showcases a South Korean company that’s turning to capitalism to give teachers better pay and students better education. The company is Megastudy. There are a few reasons Gurley loves the business: 

  • Subscription service for each course
  • Easily scalable for teachers as they teach once to as many students as they want
  • Teachers get ~23% of revenue from the course sales (this created $1M for teachers)
  • Incentives hinge on how engaging, productive and informative teachers are to students

  Gurley said he invested in a company trying to do something similar in the US, Grockit. The company was eventually bought by Kaplan in 2013. 

  Favorite Quote: “Many here argue that U.S. teachers are underpaid, so in that sense it should be a huge welcome.  That said, I don’t think any teacher union in the U.S. would support the “eat what you kill” business model in use at Megastudy.”  

  June 8, 2009: Amazon’s AWS Strategy Becomes Clearer Every Day (Link)

  Summary: Amazon’s strategy when they entered the cloud business was simple: offer the lowest-cost cloud infrastructure and obsess about the customer. The second part is reminiscent of their retail business, and a meme from an old Jeff Bezos video. This comfortability in running a low-margin business allowed AMZN to move first in the space before IBM, MSFT, etc. Second, Gurley notes that no other cloud company listens to their customers like AMZN. It’s also fascinating to see how AMZN grew their cloud business: via rogue/small developers. While most saw this as a bug, insiders knew that’s exactly how you want to grow that business (i.e., bottoms-up growth). 

  Favorite Quote: “Many in the IT world are quick to point out that its only small businesses and rouge developers in large organizations are using AWS.  This is exactly how these markets develop.  Amazon is simply selling to the innovators and early adopters in the market — the exact customers that are prescribed in Crossing the Chasm. These are the customers that others will follow, and by the time the laggards come into the market, the game will be over.”

  July 15, 2009: Bill Gurley On The “Free” Business Model (Link)

  Summary: The freemium business model is one where a company offers a product or service for free (or marginally zero cost) to its customers. On one hand, it’s a great way to disrupt an industry, and a “simple form of the innovator’s dilemma strategy.” Yet Mark Cuban and Malcolm Gladwell disagree with the “panacea” of the freemium model. The bottom line is that if you have highly differentiated content, you should charge for it. 

  Favorite Quote: “Basically, there is always a cost to delivery, even if it’s really low on a marginal basis, and in volume, it can get quite expensive on the cost side. He also, appropriately highlights that “Free” is not a panacea of a business model. It doesn’t always work.”

  July 27, 2009: I Do Not Believe That Zappos Was “Forced” To Sell (Link)

  Summary: The hot rumor in July of 2009 was that Zappos was forced to sell to Amazon by Sequoia Fund (an investor in Zappos). Gurley thinks that wasn’t true for three main reasons: 

  1. Tony (Zappos CEO) could have withheld his vote at the BOD level, or even dissented. 

  2. For the exact same reason, Tony could’ve withheld a positive shareholder vote from his common shares. 

  3. Tony could have informed Jeff Bezos that he does not want to sell. 

  Favorite Quote: “Personally, I think it’s a great match and a great outcome for both companies.  They have a shared mission and very similar service-oriented customer brand.”

  July 29, 2009: Counterpoint To Calacanis On Yahoo-Microsoft Deal (Link)

  Summary: Obsessing over what competing businesses are doing is a sure way to destroy economic value. Nowhere is this best seen than when companies tried to mimic Google’s offensive search-based ad playbook. Gurley reasons that “laying chase” to an increasing returns business (like GOOGL ad network) is a waste of time. On the other hand, AMZN is a great example of a company recognizing the desire to clone, and doing the opposite. Instead of plunging into search and ad-based models, AMZN created AWS where they can control the pace of the game. 

  Favorite Quote: “For all their efforts, it’s unclear to me that Yahoo or Microsoft have created any positive equity value whatsoever based on their obsession with Google. I do not have access to the specific numbers, but from a cash flow perspective it would be easy to imagine that its a net negative for both of them.” 

  August 4, 2009: More IPO News, Ancestry.Com Files S-1 (Link)

  Summary: According to journalists, 2009 was a doom-and-gloom year for IPOs. Gurley’s take sounded much different. There were five IPOs during the year (up until this post) and all of them were doing well. At the same time, Ancestry.com filed their S-1. The company opened around $13/share in 2009. They were later bought by a PE firm for $32/share. Not a bad return for the pessimistic IPO market of 2009!

  Favorite Quote: “I wonder how many successful IPO’s we need before people will stop saying the window is closed.  Looks perfectly open to me.”

  August 20, 2009: A Real Time Free Vs Fee Example: Rosetta Stone Vs. LiveMocha (Link)

  Summary: LiveMocha is a free online language learning website with an incredible community of learners and contributors. These contributors often create courses and open the site to new languages for free. Of course, LiveMocha isn’t guaranteed a seat at the profitability table anytime soon. The company doesn’t have a clear monetization strategy, and we don’t know how sticky the consumer brand is compared to the household name, Rosetta Stone. 

  Favorite Quote: “If you read our previous thoughts on the free business model, we made one key point. Free is not necessarily a game plan, or a guaranteed model for success, but rather a market reality. Someone may be able to do what you do for free.  Does it guarantee they will be wildly successful? No, but it still may be a massive threat.  Microeconomics is not a zero-sum game. It’s perfectly reasonable for all the players in a market to not generate excessive (or any) profits.”

  August 24, 2009: What Is Really Happening To The Venture Capital Industry? (Link)

  Summary: The VC industry was under heavy pressure in 2009 due to underperformance and bloating AUMs. Gurley suggested the problem stemmed not from VC itself, but from its source of funds. VC firms receive most of their capital from pensions, endowments, and foundations. These are the largest pools of capital in the world. Over time, most of these pools of capital have increased their allocation to VC-based alternative investments. As such, the size of the VC industry ebbs and flows with how much money institutions decide to invest. 

  Favorite Quote: “There are many reasons to believe that a reduction in the size of the VC industry will be healthy for the industry overall and should lead to above average returns in the future. This is not simply because less supply of dollars will give VCs more pricing leverage. We have seen over and over again how excess capital can lead to crowded emerging markets with as many as 5-6 VC backed competitors. Reducing this to 2-3 players will result in less cutthroat behavior and much healthier returns for all companies and entrepreneurs in the market. Additionally, at a stabilized market size of well over $15B a year, there should be plenty of capital to fund the next Microsoft, Ebay, or Google.” 

  September 29, 2009: Want To Know More About The Future Of Internet TV?: Let’s Look To Korea (Link)

  Summary: Studying countries with faster technology adoption is a great way to spot potential trends. Korea was that country with over-the-top (OTT) Internet-based video streaming. The top three South Korean OTT providers passed 800K subs during the year with 90% broadband penetration rates. While that seems high, Gurley notes that estimates a few years back called for millions of subscribers. 

  Favorite Quote: “One way to have an advantage in “predicting” what will happen is to look at other countries that are further evolved in terms of broadband. The most obvious of these, with over 90% broadband penetration, is South Korea.”

  October 29, 2009: Google Redefines Disruption: The “Less Than Free” Business Model (Link)

  Summary: Google licensed its map data from two main companies: NavTeq and Tele Atlas. As such, the data-based companies had an economic advantage over Google. That was until Google deployed its own cars and created its own turn-by-turn GPS application. Then Google did the unthinkable, they gave it away for free inside its Google Android OS. In one move, Google went from price-taker to price-maker.

  Favorite Quote: “This is not just incredible defense. Google is apt to believe that the geographic taxonomy is a wonderful skeleton for a geo-based ad network.  If your maps are distributed everywhere on the Internet and in every mobile device, you control that framework.”

  January 5, 2010: Android Or IPhone? Wrong Question (Link)

  Summary: It was easy to think Apple and Android fought head-to-head. But that wasn’t true. The iPhone partnered with AT&T, demanded wild economics (upfront payments & revenue shares), and closed its user interface/ecosystem. Google made Android open-source and paid cellular carriers via advertising revenue shares. The result? iPhone captured the high-end of the market while Android flooded/dominated the lower-end where basic smartphones were 10x better than a consumer’s existing option. 

  Favorite Quote: “This is why the two products do not compete head to head. With its super aggressive model, Android will be the choice of the masses, and with its sleek design and non-compromising price point, Apple will rule the high end.”

  February 8, 2010: Virtual Goods, Accounting, And The Power Of The “Rental” Model (Link)

  Summary: In the virtual economy, renting is a better business model than ownership for six main reasons: 

  1. Items become obsolete as a player levels up
  2. Users experience substantial inventory glut 
  3. Allows for more marketing opportunities when item needs to be replaced
  4. Price segmentation based on length of rental (i.e., 1 day, 7 day, or 30 day rental pricing)
  5. Creates recurring revenue business vs. one-time purchase
  6. Simpler accounting as there is no “durable” virtual good

  Favorite Quote: “American journalists and corporate executives have been slow to appreciate the beauty, brilliance, and consumer allure of the virtual goods business model.”

  April 28, 2010: When It Comes To Television Content, Affiliate Fees Make The World Go ‘Round (Link)

  Summary: If you want to understand the cable/media industry, follow the money, or in this case, the affiliate fees. Affiliate fees were a $32B business in 2010. ESPN is a good example. Content providers like ESPN “charge” $2.00/sub/month to cable companies for the right to stream ESPN content on a cable channel. Gurley notes that affiliate fees affect every aspect of the TV business, from operations to content production to financing/packaging. That there is so much money on the line ($32B) means it’ll be challenging for technology to disrupt the incumbent model. 

  Favorite Quote:  “The final and most significant reason is that this is a massive, massive business, and it is critically important to understand where the money flows (most people don’t). You can spend plenty of time talking about other issues, but when it comes to understanding the key factor at play in nearly every major business decision in television, you will find affiliate fees – all $32 billion of them.”

  July 8, 2010: Google Acquires ITA: Will Deeper Vertical Integration Lead To Higher Revenues? (Link)

  Summary: GOOGL can’t easily penetrate new verticals for two key reasons: competition and LTV-based assumptions. Existing verticals (like travel) offer a significantly better consumer experience, often due to community-based user-generated content (UGC) and hyper-specific datasets. GOOGL cannot easily mimic these advantages. Second, GOOGL’s CPC charge would switch from an “investment’ in Lifetime Customer Value (LTV) to a repeat transaction (or fee) in the eyes of company marketing departments. 

  Favorite Quote: “If you are searching for a book or an author you go to Amazon, or at the very least you do a search like “Man in Full Amazon” so that you go directly to the page you want on Amazon. The same is true for hotels with TripAdvisor and for restaurants with OpenTable. These sites offer deeper and richer experiences for a vertical searcher precisely because they incorporate deep meta-data, faceted search, transaction connectivity, and typically a form of community or UGC (user generated content).”

  July 15, 2010: On Google, Growth, Pricing Power, And Valuation Multiples (Link)

  Summary: GOOGL traded at ~18x 2010 earnings at the time of writing. Why were they so cheap? It wasn’t competitive positioning, as nobody could successfully dethrone GOOGL’s search engine dominance. And it wasn’t lack of growth as GOOGL was generating 20%+ top-line revenue growth. According to Gurley, GOOGL traded at a discount because its business model was “too good.” It grew reached $10B 3x as quickly as GOOGL. However, GOOGL didn’t possess MSFT’s massive embedded pricing power, so Gurley saw little operating leverage inside GOOGL’s business. 

  Favorite Quote: “With its ad optimization engine so amazingly efficient, Google has no obvious pricing power against its current installed base. There is simply no way to “double” the amount of spend from each customer, much less a way to take it up 20X. Additionally, they have not yet identified a product that would represent Google’s version of Microsoft Office in terms of revenue leverage.” 

  November 15, 2010: Silicon Valley’s IPO Anxiety (Link)

  Summary: Anxiety about going public is a self-fulfilling prophecy that leads to fewer IPOs, thus fewer new “merchandise” for investors to purchase. Gurley notes that in 2010 most IPOs came outside of Silicon Valley, reaffirming the self-fulfilling prophecy. Sure, Sarbanes-Oxly makes it more expensive to go public. And yes, there are more short-term oriented investors in public markets. However, companies assume those risks for the potential to capture sales/earnings multiples they’d never see if they stayed private. 

  Favorite Quote: “To this point, and perhaps ironically to some, most of the people I know that work in high tech mutual funds and hedge funds would like to see more IPOs not less. They are tired of trading the same large technology names that are showing limited equity returns over the past 10 years, and have very low growth opportunities/ambitions.”

  March 24, 2011: The Freight Train That Is Android (Link)

  Summary: Android and Chrome aren’t business “products”, but a strategy of expanding GOOGL’s existing economic moat. GOOGL removes the layer between itself and its end-user by offering free (or less-than-free) software products (like OS, Search Engines, and Maps). The Search Engine funds this expensive “scorched-Earth” moat expansion policy via its Advertising business (its castle). In essence, GOOGL wants all the market share, but none of the economics. How can one compete against that defensive model? It’s simple, you can’t. 

  Favorite Quote: “This is the part that amazes me the most. I don’t know if a large organized industry has ever faced this fierce a form of competition – someone who is not trying to “win” in the classic sense. They want market share, but they don’t need economics. Imagine if Ford were faced with GM paying people to take Chevrolets? How many would they be able to sell? What if you received $0.10 for every free Pepsi you consumed? Would you still pay $1.50 for a Coke?”

  May 24, 2011: All Revenue Is Not Created Equal: The Keys To The 10X Revenue Club (Link)

  Summary: Only a select few companies can (and should) trade at 10x Price/Sales. The reason is that revenue (and revenue growth) isn’t created equally. There are good and bad flavors of growth. Gurley reveals the ten most important criteria for Revenue Growth Quality by asking 10 questions: 

  1. Does the business have a competitive advantage (Buffett’s “moat”)?
  2. Does the business possess network effects? 
  3. How predictable/visible is the company’s revenues? 
  4. Are there high or low switching costs? 
  5. Is this a high or low gross margin business? 
  6. Does the business generate positive marginal profitability?
  7. How concentrated is the company’s revenues? 
  8. Does the company depend on 1-3 key partners? 
  9. Does the business grow via advertising or organic word-of-mouth? 
  10. How fast is the company growing revenue? 

  This is not an exhaustive list, but it’s a great starting point in determining if a business has what it takes to (potentially) trade at 10x Price/Sales. 

  Favorite Quote: “What drives true equity value? Those of us with a fondness for finance will argue until we are blue in the face that discounted cash flows (DCF) are the true drivers of value for any financial asset, companies included. The problem is that it is nearly impossible to predict with any accuracy what the long-term cash flows are for a given company; especially a company that is young or that might be using an innovative and new business model.” 

  September 14, 2011: On IPOs: If You Are Going To File, Make Sure You Price (Link)

  Summary: Companies that file an S-1, only to pull the filing, sow seeds of doubt amongst investors, bankers, and internal employees. Pulling an IPO filing begs many questions, like “Was their valuation too high?” or “Maybe there isn’t enough demand for the stock?” Or even “I wonder if the company’s growth is slowing down and they don’t want to publish those figures?” Regardless of the reason, companies that file S-1s should have the courage to see it through. 

  Favorite Quote: “An open IPO window attracts two types of companies – those that should go public, and those that “need” to go public for capital reasons. Portions of the “need” group will always fail to find supporters, and therefore you should not view delays and withdrawals as signs of a weak IPO market.” 

  September 18, 2011: Understanding Why Netflix Changed Pricing (Link)

  Summary: Hollywood forced Netflix to change its pricing. Netflix’s original business model formed around the 1908 “First Sale Doctrine” Supreme Court Ruling. The ruling allowed NFLX (or anyone) to rent a DVD the same day of purchase. In this model. NFLX has relatively fixed costs and unlimited “streaming” rights. However, digital is the opposite model. Hollywood demanded an affiliate fee-like pricing model, where NFLX paid Hollywood per subscriber per month for the right to digitally stream its content. Digital now became a fixed rights distribution with unlimited potential costs. NFLX had to increase prices to make its digital model work. 

  Favorite Quote: “Netflix could not afford to pay for digital content for someone who wasn’t watching it. This forced the separation, so that the digital business model would exist on it’s own free and clear. Could Netflix have simply paid the digital fee for all its customers (those that watched and not)? One has to believe they modeled this scenario, and it looked worse financially (implied severe gross margin erosion) than the model they chose.”

  November 15, 2011: You Don’t Have To Tweet To Twitter (Link)

  Summary: Twitter doesn’t compete with Facebook or other social media platforms. Instead, it competes with other news sources, like print/TV media, blogs, and other websites where users publish information. The great thing about Twitter, too, is that you don’t have to tweet to recognize its value. Users get tremendous value from following other people without the need for others to follow them. Plus, Twitter’s strong-form network effects grow with each new user on the platform as more users amplifies any one person’s potential to share information at scale. 

  Favorite Quote: “Much like Google, Twitter points out to the world. It’s a “discovery engine” and an “information utility” rolled into one. With Twitter, you get news faster, you see updates from your favorite artists, you hear directly from key politicians, and gain insights from influencers in a wide variety of specializations. Just as Facebook is symmetric in terms of its poster-reader relationship, Twitter is highly asymmetric. The majority of the tweets on Twitter are posted by a small sub-set of the users.”

  Years: 2012 – 2015

  January 5, 2012: Thinking About Diets And Other Complex Matters (Link)

  Summary: Whether it’s diets, stock prices, or weather changes, humans love finding patterns for complex matters. If something is too complex for our feeble human brain to comprehend, fear not! We simply create a causation or a pattern so that our minds can somehow understand it. The lesson? Watch out for those that spew “certainty”, those that avoid fresh perspectives or people who won’t / can’t change their minds. 

  Favorite Quote: “When it comes to not fully understood complex systems, it is easy to get things wrong. In fact, its easy for everyone to get them wrong. Don’t fear the new idea or the fresh perspective, and don’t believe something just because everyone else does. But watch out for the preacher with certainty — the ones that are spewing hellfire and brimstone. They are the ones most certainly to be wrong.”

  February 1, 2012: Why Facebook Clearly Belongs In The 10X Revenue Club (Link)

  Summary: This was one of my favorite Gurley posts as we became a fly on the wall, listening to how Gurley analyzed Facebook (FB) at the time of IPO. Gurley runs FB through his 10x Revenue Club Criterion and determines that the company firmly belongs as a card-carrying member. Gurley ended up valuing FB around $96B market cap. As of this writing, it trades at $540B. 

  Favorite Quote: “With all the hype, assume a 12x multiple on the $6, and you end up right at $72B. You can double-check this with earnings. As operating margin is stable, 60% growth would result in $1.6B in after-tax earnings. At $72B, this is a 45 PE ratio for a company growing at 60%. At a 60 PE, you would have a $96B market capitalization.”

  February 23, 2012: Why Dropbox Is A Major Disruption (Link)

  Summary: Gurley saw Dropbox (DBX) as a major disrupter because it took something highly complex (file synchronization) and made it “brain dead simple.” However, it’s not in making something formerly complex, simple. It’s the fact that DBX now eliminates dependence on specific computer hardware and software. Who cares if you use iMac or Windows? And who cares if you lose your laptop or phone? If everything’s stored on DBX, you haven’t lost anything. DBX, in essence, commoditized computer hardware and software. 

  Favorite Quote: “Once you begin using Dropbox, you become more and more indifferent to the hardware you are using, as well as the operating system on that device. Dropbox commoditizes your devices and their OS, by being your “state” system in the sky.” 

  April 19, 2012: My Life With Bing (Link)

  Summary: Gurley switched his default browser from Google to Bing for two months. His findings were interesting. He noticed that on “core search” functions, Bing was on-par with Google. However, the biggest difference Gurley noticed was how conditioned he was to Google’s UI/UX. Moreover, he noticed how frustrating it was trying to navigate (read: learn) a new UI/UX in Bing. In other words, customer lock-in doesn’t have to come from product superiority or barriers to entry. It can come from familiarity with navigation and the power of personal routines. 

  Favorite Quote: “At the end of the day, for me, my user “lock-in” is associated not with the quality of Google results, but rather with the understanding of the UI features and levers.  More like a traditional software application.”

  April 27, 2012: Intuit To Acquire Demandforce For $424MM (Link)

  Summary: Demandforce is a case study on two important company-building topics: focus and local networks. Gurley frequently mentioned that Demandforce flew under-the-radar from the media, and instead focused all their efforts on their customers and product. Additionally, Demandforce operated in the Local Internet world of small business. Demandforce gave local businesses access to enterprise-level SaaS “front office” tools. In effect, the company leveraged the power of the Internet with the pervasiveness of smartphones to service a $125B+ industry.

  Favorite Quote: “In a day and age of social media, where many companies project a persona much larger than reality, Demandforce chose instead to focus on its customers and its products. We never even announced Benchmark’s funding of the company, which I believe is unprecedented. The Demandforce team always felt that the attention should be focused on the customer rather than the company.”

  June 25, 2012: Social-Mobile-LOCAL: “Local” Will Be The Biggest Of The Three (Link)

  Summary: Local is a massive and exciting market opportunity for startups to build the next billion-dollar business. There are a few reasons for this belief. First, smartphones have given startups access to billions of people’s locations, allowing them to build hyper-local products and services (think Nextdoor, etc.). Internet adoption rates also remain historically underpenetrated for local small businesses. Finally, local graphs incentivize startups to go deep into specific verticals (like travel, accounting solutions, table reservation), insulating itself from larger incumbents like Google.

  Favorite Quote: “But the really exciting part is that we are still really early in this process of transformation away from listing/directory advertising to a local Internet.  By way of comparison, in the fourth quarter of 2011, Southwest Airlines reported that 86% of its revenue was booked online.  By comparison, only 12% of US restaurant reservations are booked online. Only 15% of dentists are connected to customers through services like DemandForce.  Only 3% of takeout orders are processed through online offerings like GrubHub. And less than 1% of realtors are premier agents on Zillow.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 07/17/2022 – 16:30

• Rush Limbaugh's Palm Beach Mansion Listed For $175 Million
  Rush Limbaugh’s Palm Beach Mansion Listed For $175 Million

  Late conservative talk show host Rush Limbaugh’s mansion on Palm Beach’s North Ocean Boulevard is for sale, and the asking price is between $150 million to $175 million, according to WSJ sources. 

  The 2.7-acre waterfront property features a 24,000 square feet main house with 250 feet of ocean frontage. Limbaugh purchased the property right before the DotCom bubble in 1998 for $3.9 million. 

  

  Property records show his widow, Kathryn Adams Limbaugh, is on the trust that owns the property. 

  

  Ze’ev Chafet, a writer who wrote Limbaugh’s biography “An Army of One,” detailed the mansion was “largely decorated by Limbaugh himself, it reflects the things and places he has seen and admired.” 

  

  Chafet wrote the mansion had a salon invoking Versailles and a massive chandelier in the dining room that was a replica of the one in New York’s Plaza Hotel. He said the house was modeled after the Presidential Suite of the Hotel George V in Paris. 

  WSJ notes the main house is in “good condition,” though real-estate agents said buyers are pursuing more contemporary architectural styles and would consider ripping down the house if bought. 

  Even at $150 million, Limbaugh’s mansion would be one of the most expensive residential properties ever sold in Palm Beach, where the luxury real estate market exploded post-COVID. Last month, Oracle Corp. co-founder Larry Ellison dropped a record $173 million on a 62,000-square feet Mediterranean-style mansion near Palm Beach. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 07/17/2022 – 16:00

• What Is Adam Schiff Hiding?
  What Is Adam Schiff Hiding?

  Authored by Julie Kelly via AmGreatness.com,

  Schiff tucked an amendment into the National Defense Authorization Act that would prohibit any evidence collected in violation of the Posse Comitatus Act from being used in investigations. Why?

  

  Jeffrey Rosen had a secret on January 6, 2021.

  The then-acting attorney general—Rosen was appointed on December 24, 2020 to replace departing Attorney General William Barr—had assembled a team of elite and highly skilled government agents at Quantico, a nexus point between the FBI and U.S. military, the weekend before Congress met to certify the results of the 2020 presidential election. At the same time he was rejecting President Donald Trump’s last-minute appeals to investigate election fraud, Rosen was managing a hush-hush operation in advance of planned rallies and protests in Washington on January 6.

  “Rosen made a unilateral decision to take the preparatory steps to deploy Justice Department and so-called ‘national’ forces,” Newsweek reporter William M. Arkin disclosed in a bombshell report earlier this year. “There was no formal request from the U.S. Capitol Police, the Secret Service, or the Metropolitan Police Department—in fact, no external request from any agency. The leadership in Justice and the FBI anticipated the worst and decided to act independently, the special operations forces lurking behind the scenes.”

  Those assets, according to Arkin, included “commandos” with shoot-to-kill authority. And among them were members of the military. 

  “The presence of these extraordinary forces under the control of the Attorney General—and mostly operating under contingency plans that Congress and the U.S. Capitol Police were not privy to—added an additional layer of highly armed responders,” Arkin writes. “The role that the military played in this highly classified operation is still unknown, though FBI sources tell Newsweek that military operators seconded to the FBI, and those on alert as part of the National Mission Force, were present in the metropolitan area.”

  Little else is known about Rosen’s secret mission. His testimony to the House Oversight Committee in May 2021 was just as obscure. Rosen, who publicly bragged to the January 6 select committee about his attempts to deter Team Trump from pursuing vote fraud days before the Capitol protest, said the FBI opened a multi-agency operation center, which included the Department of Defense, at FBI headquarters on January 5. “Each of these federal agencies supplied personnel to staff the [center] 24/7 beginning on January 5 and 6, and continuing for a period thereafter,” he said.

  To avoid “interfering” in ongoing investigations, Rosen then declined to answer any questions from lawmakers at the time.

  But if the military engaged in any civilian law enforcement activity, including surveillance or intelligence collection, before or during January 6, it would represent an egregious violation of the military’s code of conduct and federal law. Under the Posse Comitatus Act, military personnel cannot be used as local cops or investigators: “Whoever, except in cases and under circumstances expressly authorized by the Constitution or Act of Congress, willfully uses any part of the Army, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the Air Force, or the Space Force as a posse comitatus or otherwise to execute the laws shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than two years, or both.” (Certain exclusions, such as the president’s invocation of the Insurrection Act and any use of the National Guard, apply.)

  The law is both vague and specific at the same time—which brings us to Representative Adam Schiff (D-Calif.). Irrefutably the least trustworthy member of Congress, Schiff tucked an amendment into the massive National Defense Authorization Act that would prohibit any evidence collected in violation of the Posse Comitatus Act from being used in a number of proceedings, including criminal trials and congressional investigations.

  The amendment’s timing, like everything else related to the infamous Russian collusion huckster, evidence forger, and nude photo seeker (to name a few of Schiff’s special talents), is highly suspect. Why would Schiff need to outlaw evidence collected unlawfully? Why is Schiff relying on this relatively arcane statute passed during Reconstruction that is rarely, if ever, enforced? 

  “No one has ever been convicted of violating PCA to my knowledge,” Dr. Jeffrey Addicott, a 20-year member of the Judge Advocate General’s Corps and director of the Warrior Defense Project at St. Mary’s College, told American Greatness last week.

  What is Adam Schiff, on behalf of the Biden regime and Trump foes in the U.S. military, including Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley, trying to hide?

  It is not a coincidence that Schiff introduced the amendment just a few months before a predicted Republican landslide in November, which will give control of Congress back to the GOP. House Minority Leader and presumptive Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy is planning to conduct multiple investigations into the Biden regime next year including of the deadly and distrastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan; the Daily Caller reported this week that Republican lawmakers are “flooding the Biden administration with ‘hundreds of preservation notices’ asking that relevant documents be preserved.”

  But one can easily see how Schiff’s amendment could be used as legislative cover to prevent production of any materials from Biden’s Department of Defense. After all, according to a 2018 congressional analysis of Posse Comitatus, “compliance [of the act] is ordinarily the result of military self-restraint.” So, too, is enforcement: “The act is a criminal statute under which there has been but a handful of known prosecutions,” the same report explained.

  This is the sort of vehicle that Democrats know how to use and exploit for political advantage. If interpretation and enforcement is totally arbitrary, who decides? Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin? The Justice Department? Biden’s White House lawyers? 

  Imagine how Democrats could conceal the use of military personnel related to the events of January 6. Congressional Republicans send a request to Austin seeking all records, documents, and communications pertaining to the military’s involvement before and during the Capitol protest. Austin replies that he has determined the military—under control of President Trump at the time, no less—violated Posse Comitatus and therefore the requested materials cannot be produced under authority of the Schiff amendment.

  Republicans can howl and scream but they have no legal remedy. Austin won’t investigate and Attorney General Merrick Garland won’t prosecute.

  This scenario could be repeated for every Republican inquiry into Biden’s Defense Department. Does anyone really think this regime will hand over information to GOP investigators and committees without pulling every trick in the book, starting with Schiff’s amendment?

  On Thursday afternoon, the House narrowly passed Schiff’s amendment by a vote of 215-213; every Republican and two Democrats voted no. (House Speaker Nancy Pelosi came to the floor to vote in a rare move.) Passage in the Senate is uncertain.

  If his amendment fails to advance, Schiff nonetheless has done Republicans a tremendous favor; he’s tipped off the GOP that there’s plenty of digging to be done at the Department of Defense, where a trove of scandals awaits political sunshine.

  Republicans would be wise to take his cue—and start with January 6.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 07/17/2022 – 15:30

• Salesforce Is Planning To Sublet Its Flagship San Francisco Office Space
  Salesforce Is Planning To Sublet Its Flagship San Francisco Office Space

  Salesforce looks like it is becoming the latest company to abandon the hellscape that has become San Francisco. The company plans to list its 350,000 square foot office at 50 Fremont St. for sale, a new report by the San Francisco Chronicle says. 

  It marks the third cut to the company’s presence in the Bay Area over the last 18 months. The company subleases about 40% of the building at present. 

  The company told The Chronicle: “Salesforce offices are an important part of our culture, and how we use them has evolved. We are subleasing floors in Salesforce West to make the most efficient use of our real estate footprint. We will maintain ownership of the building and can reoccupy the space as needed over time. As the largest private employer in San Francisco, we are deeply committed to the city and are actively welcoming employees back to Salesforce Tower.”

  Meanwhile CEO Marc Benioff has said that return to “office mandates are never going to work” coming out of the pandemic. Instead, the company has focused on working remotely. 

   

  We absolutely do not blame Salesforce, nor do we blame companies like Walgreens, who are doing their best to reduce their exposure to the city. Back in March we asked the question of what would happen if San Francisco simply didn’t recover:

  The streets are dirty. Homeless encampments, trash, and excrement can be found all over. Car break-ins are so frequent that it has basically become a non-government-imposed tax for people who come here. Of course, some areas are much worse than others, but almost all areas of the city suffer from this decay, and it is appalling.

  In June, we wrote about the how the city’s Tenderloin district has become a criminal order. Drug dealers stake out their turf and sell in broad daylight, while the immigrant families in the five-story, pre-war apartment buildings shepherd their kids to school, trying to maintain as normal an existence as they can.

  “If you happen to be walking through the Tenderloin and you feel unsafe, imagine what it feels like to live there,” said Joel Engardio, head of Stop Crime SF, a civilian public safety group. “The Tenderloin has one of the largest percentages of children in the city. It’s untenable, inexcusable to ask them to confront this hellscape.” 

  “The Tenderloin is out of control,” said Tom Ostly, a former San Francisco prosecutor who used to work there and lives nearby. “It has never been worse than it is now.”

  Nancy Tung, a prosecutor who once handled drug enforcement in San Francisco, called it “ground zero for human misery.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 07/17/2022 – 15:00

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• Escobar: In Eurasia, The War Of Economic Corridors Is In Full Swing
  Escobar: In Eurasia, The War Of Economic Corridors Is In Full Swing

  Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Cradle,

  Mega Eurasian organizations and their respective projects are now converging at record speed, with one global pole way ahead of the other.

  

  The War of Economic Corridors is now proceeding full speed ahead, with the game-changing first cargo flow of goods from Russia to India via the International North South Transportation Corridor (INSTC) already in effect.

  Very few, both in the east and west, are aware of how this actually has long been in the making: the Russia-Iran-India agreement for implementing a shorter and cheaper Eurasian trade route via the Caspian Sea (compared to the Suez Canal), was first signed in 2000, in the pre-9/11 era.

  The INSTC in full operational mode signals a powerful hallmark of Eurasian integration – alongside the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), and last but not least, what I described as “Pipelineistan” two decades ago.

  Caspian is key

  Let’s have a first look on how these vectors are interacting.

  The genesis of the current acceleration lies in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent visit to Ashgabat, Turkmenistan’s capital, for the 6th Caspian Summit. This event not only brought the evolving Russia-Iran strategic partnership to a deeper level, but crucially, all five Caspian Sea littoral states agreed that no NATO warships or bases will be allowed on site.

  That essentially configures the Caspian as a virtual Russian lake, and in a minor sense, Iranian – without compromising the interests of the three “stans,” Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. For all practical purposes, Moscow has tightened its grip on Central Asia a notch.

  As the Caspian Sea is connected to the Black Sea by canals off the Volga built by the former USSR, Moscow can always count on a reserve navy of small vessels – invariably equipped with powerful missiles – that may be transferred to the Black Sea in no time if necessary.

  Stronger trade and financial links with Iran now proceed in tandem with binding the three “stans” to the Russian matrix. Gas-rich republic Turkmenistan for its part has been historically idiosyncratic – apart from committing most of its exports to China.

  Under an arguably more pragmatic young new leader, President Serdar Berdimuhamedow, Ashgabat may eventually opt to become a member of the SCO and/or the EAEU.

  Caspian littoral state Azerbaijan on the other hand presents a complex case: an oil and gas producer eyed by the European Union (EU) to become an alternative energy supplier to Russia – although this is not happening anytime soon.

  The West Asia connection

  Iran’s foreign policy under President Ebrahim Raisi is clearly on a Eurasian and Global South trajectory. Tehran will be formally incorporated into the SCO as a full member in the upcoming summit in Samarkand in September, while its formal application to join the BRICS has been filed.

  Purnima Anand, head of the BRICS International Forum, has stated that Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Egypt are also very much keen on joining BRICS. Should that happen, by 2024 we could be on our way to a powerful West Asia, North Africa hub firmly installed inside one of the key institutions of the multipolar world.

  As Putin heads to Tehran next week for trilateral Russia, Iran, Turkey talks, ostensibly about Syria, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is bound to bring up the subject of BRICS.

  Tehran is operating on two parallel vectors. In the event the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is revived – a quite dim possibility as it stands, considering the latest shenanigans in Vienna and Doha – that would represent a tactical victory. Yet moving towards Eurasia is on a whole new strategic level.

  In the INSTC framework, Iran will make maximum good use of the geostrategically crucial port of Bandar Abbas – straddling the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, at the crossroads of Asia, Africa and the Indian subcontinent.

  Yet as much as it may be portrayed as a major diplomatic victory, it’s clear that Tehran will not be able to make full use of BRICS membership if western – especially US – sanctions are not totally lifted.

  Pipelines and the “stans”

  A compelling argument can be made that Russia and China might eventually fill the western technology void in the Iranian development process. But there’s a lot more that platforms such as the INSTC, the EAEU and even BRICS can accomplish.

  Across “Pipelineistan,” the War of Economic Corridors gets even more complex. Western propaganda simply cannot admit that Azerbaijan, Algeria, Libya, Russia’s allies at OPEC, and even Kazakhstan are not exactly keen on increasing their oil production to help Europe.

  Kazakhstan is a tricky case: it is the largest oil producer in Central Asia and set to be a major natural gas supplier, right after Russia and Turkmenistan. More than 250 oil and gas fields are operated in Kazakhstan by 104 companies, including western energy giants such as Chevron, Total, ExxonMobil and Royal Dutch Shell.

  While exports of oil, natural gas and petroleum products comprise 57 percent of Kazakhstan’s exports, natural gas is responsible for 85 percent of Turkmenistan’s budget (with 80 percent of exports committed to China). Interestingly, Galkynysh is the second largest gas field on the planet.

  Compared to the other “stans,” Azerbaijan is a relatively minor producer (despite oil accounting for 86 percent of its total exports) and basically a transit nation. Baku’s super-wealth aspirations center on the Southern Gas Corridor, which includes no less than three pipelines: Baku-Tblisi-Erzurum (BTE); the Turkish-driven Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP); and the Trans-Adriatic (TAP).

  The problem with this acronym festival – BTE, TANAP, TAP – is that they all need massive foreign investment to increase capacity, which the EU sorely lacks because every single euro is committed by unelected Brussels Eurocrats to “support” the black hole that is Ukraine. The same financial woes apply to a possible Trans-Caspian Pipeline which would further link to both TANAP and TAP.

  In the War of Economic Corridors – the “Pipelineistan” chapter – a crucial aspect is that most Kazakh oil exports to the EU go through Russia, via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC). As an alternative, the Europeans are mulling on a still fuzzy Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, also known as the Middle Corridor (Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey). They actively discussed it in Brussels last month.

  The bottom line is that Russia remains in full control of the Eurasia pipeline chessboard (and we’re not even talking about the Gazprom-operated pipelines Power of Siberia 1 and 2 leading to China).

  Gazprom executives know all too well that a fast increase of energy exports to the EU is out of the question. They also factor the Tehran Convention – that helps prevent and control pollution and maintain the environmental integrity of the Caspian Sea, signed by all five littoral members.

  Breaking BRI in Russia

  China, for its part, is confident that one of its prime strategic nightmares may eventually disappear. The notorious “escape from Malacca” is bound to materialize, in cooperation with Russia, via the Northern Sea Route, which will shorten the trade and connectivity corridor from East Asia to Northern Europe from 11,200 nautical miles to only 6,500 nautical miles. Call it the polar twin of the INSTC.

  This also explains why Russia has been busy building a vast array of state-of-the-art icebreakers.

  So here we have an interconnection of New Silk Roads (the INSTC proceeds in parallel with BRI and the EAEU), Pipelineistan, and the Northern Sea Route on the way to turn western trade domination completely upside down.

  Of course, the Chinese have had it planned for quite a while. The first White Paper on China’s Arctic policy, in January 2018, already showed how Beijing is aiming, “jointly with other states” (that means Russia), to implement sea trade routes in the Arctic within the framework of the Polar Silk Road.

  And like clockwork, Putin subsequently confirmed that the Northern Sea Route should interact and complement the Chinese Maritime Silk Road.

  Russia-China Economic cooperation is evolving on so many complex, convergent levels that just to keep track of it all is a dizzying experience.

  A more detailed analysis will reveal some of the finer points, for instance how BRI and SCO interact, and how BRI projects will have to adapt to the heady consequences of Moscow’s Operation Z in Ukraine, with more emphasis being placed on developing Central and West Asian corridors.

  It’s always crucial to consider that one of Washington’s key strategic objectives in the relentless hybrid war against Russia was always to break BRI corridors that crisscross Russian territory.

  As it stands, it’s important to realize that dozens of BRI projects in industry and investment and cross-border inter-regional cooperation will end up consolidating the Russian concept of the Greater Eurasia Partnership – which essentially revolves around establishing multilateral cooperation with a vast range of nations belonging to organizations such as the EAEU, the SCO, BRICS and ASEAN.

  Welcome to the new Eurasian mantra: Make Economic Corridors, Not War.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 07/16/2022 – 23:30

• Satellite Imagery Shows Global Crop Declines – Except For Russia And China
  Satellite Imagery Shows Global Crop Declines – Except For Russia And China

  Infrared satellite imagery designed to measure moisture levels and the health of farmlands suggests that staple crops such as wheat are in poor condition and in sharp decline among major exporters including the Ukraine, the US and India.  Two countries do have bumper crops so far though; namely Russia and China.  

  It is hard to say which governments and institutions monitor this data, but a few months ago a multitude of political leaders and global banks issued simultaneous warnings of a “global food shortage” and an impending crisis.  Such institutions included the IMF, World Bank, the BIS and even the White House.  So far, a perfect storm of stagflation, supply chain disruptions and poor weather conditions have combined to disrupt food production around the world. 

  Price inflation due to central bank stimulus measures has been enough to do incredible damage to the many national economies, but a single bad year for crops on top of this could spell disaster.  

  Russia and China, on the other hand, are enjoying a strategic advantage.  As we entered spring of this year, the mainstream media heralded the end of the Russian economy and the swift collapse of their war efforts in Ukraine.  Today, Russia is selling more oil and exporting more commodities than ever before, and both Russia and China now have the most healthy staple crops in the world.  It’s almost as if the public in the west has been deliberately misled about our economic strength.   

  Sadly, many people in the west have forgotten the importance of commodities, industry and energy in terms of geopolitical leverage.  Without dominance of these three arenas there is no chance for a nation or group of nations to dictate terms to a country that has such advantages.  Economic warfare is about independent production and adaptability; these are two things the US and Europe do not have right now.  

  

  With declines in crop exports, food prices will rise even further this year and there is also the possibility that Russia could cut off the EU and other nations from access to their agricultural market.  Though the Kremlin says this will not happen, given the right trigger event it remains a legitimate threat.  Already this month Europe is on the edge of an economic cliff as they wait to see if the Russian “maintenance shutdown” of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline is actually temporary, or the beginning of a full bore energy crisis that will last for years.          

  In other words, the temptation for the eastern nations to use food as a weapon against NATO countries will be just as high on their list as oil and gas.  With food and energy stability in doubt there is also a considerable danger of civil unrest.  Third world nations are likely to see the worst of the shortages, but price inflation in necessities is here to stay for first world countries as well.  And along with that comes all the associated economic problems, including rising crime, rising unemployment and rising poverty. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 07/16/2022 – 23:00

• Catholic Voters Sour On Biden, Split Over Midterms
  Catholic Voters Sour On Biden, Split Over Midterms

  Authored by Susan Crabtree via RealClear Opinion Research,

  Neither Republicans nor Democrats have a clear edge with Catholic voters nearly four months before the pivotal midterm elections that will determine control of Congress and how much of President Biden’s agenda will get passed in the next two years, according to an in-depth new survey of American Catholics.

  

  Overall, likely voters identifying themselves as Catholic are split nearly evenly in their preference for Congress: 44% indicated support for the Republican candidate in their district, while 43% support the Democrat – with a significant bloc of 13% undecided.

  Despite this political divide, a key indicator of voter concern – whether the country is on the right or wrong track – should set off alarm bells for the Biden administration and Democrats, who control both chambers of Congress.

  Some 59% of all Catholics said the country is on the wrong track, including 68% of white Catholics and 45% of Latino Catholics, compared to 24% who thought it’s headed in the right direction.

  While those figures demonstrate widespread pessimism among Catholics, the rest of the country is even more discouraged about the country’s path forward. The RealClearPolitics average of most recent polls shows an overwhelming 75.1% of voters believe the country is off-course, compared to just 18% who say it’s on target.

  These are among the findings in the latest survey of Catholic voter mood by RealClear Opinion Research in partnership with Catholic-themed television network EWTN. The national survey of 1,757 Catholic likely voters is the first of It was conducted online in English and Spanish from June 15-23, immediately before the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, ruling that there is no longer a federal constitutional right to an abortion.

  The dramatic difference of opinion within the broader group of all voters identifying as Catholic demonstrates how nuanced and diverse this voting group has become in recent years. Modern Catholics comprise several subgroups representing generational, cultural, and ethnic differences that all vote differently but generally place a high value on their faith and religion when making political decisions.

  Some 68% of all Catholics said their faith is important when considering their vote for Congress this year, compared to 32% who said it isn’t important. And an overwhelming 82% said a candidate’s support for religious freedom would make them more likely to vote for them, compared to just 10% who said it would make them less likely to vote for those politicians.

  Overall, Catholic voters today are a far cry from the Democratic voting bloc that helped propel John F. Kennedy, the first and only Roman Catholic to serve as president, to the White House in 1960. In fact, the political ideology of the 1,757 surveyed skews more conservative or lean conservative than liberal or lean liberal by a margin of 40% to 34%. More voters identified as Democrat (42%) than Republican (38%), but 20% considered themselves independent or unaffiliated with either party.

  Despite Catholic voters’ split political affiliations, the group remains crucial because there are so many of them. More than one in five voters identifies as Catholic, although they are difficult to typecast, according to John Della Volpe, director of the RealClear survey.

  This may explain the lack of clear advantage for either party ahead of the midterms, but it doesn’t mean Catholics as a whole don’t have strong feelings about political issues right now.

  The RealClear Opinion/EWTN poll found that President Biden has lost significant ground with Catholics since his election. In 2020, Biden carried the Catholic vote by five percentage points, with 52% of all Catholic voters casting their ballots for Biden and 47% for Trump, according to Edison exit poll data.

  Now just 47% of Catholics approve of Biden’s job performance, while 53% disapprove, the survey found. Still, Biden’s approval rating among all Catholics remains nearly ten points higher than among all voters. The most recent RCP average of voter opinion polls pegs the president’s approval at a new low of 37.8%, with 56.6% disapproving.

  Trump’s favorability rating among all Catholic voters was equally split: 49% of voters surveyed held a favorable view of the 45^th president while 49% held an unfavorable one.

  The poll also shows a big difference in how white and non-white Catholic voters view Biden. Despite reports that Republicans are making inroads with Latino voters, Biden’s approval rating among Latino Catholics stands at an impressive 59%. Among white Catholics, it’s a dismal 36%.

  On the pressing issue of inflation, Catholic voters as a whole have little hope in Biden’s ability to relieve the economic pain. A whopping 89% said their finances had been significantly impacted or affected to some degree by the rising cost of gas and other goods, and 57% said they didn’t have much or any confidence that the Biden administration can significantly reduce inflation in the next year.

  Still, Catholic voters are generally split on what’s most to blame – 36% say Biden and his policies, and 33% say the war in Ukraine and the global slowdown, while 25% said both were equally at fault.

  On the fierce national policy debate on abortion, the survey produced some seemingly conflicting results. A plurality of all Catholics favored upholding Roe v. Wade by a 47%-42% margin, with little or no gender gap. Both men and women were narrowly opposed to overturning the landmark 1973 ruling.

  Unsurprisingly, party affiliation was the most influential factor in whether respondents favored or opposed overturning the landmark abortion case. Republicans strongly supported reversing the decision by a margin of 52%-36%, while Democrats strongly opposed doing so by a 58%-33% margin.

  But a high percentage of Catholics, 65%-23%, also acknowledged that abortion conflicts with Catholic teaching. By a 68%-23% margin, these voters also backed laws requiring parental consent for minors before undergoing an abortion.

  The survey also showed that the vast majority of Catholics oppose unfettered access to abortion. In the last two years, though, slightly more of these voters have shifted away from the church’s strict opposition to abortion.

  Just 18% of those surveyed said abortion should be available to a woman at any point during her pregnancy, up from 15% in 2020, while 32% said abortion should be allowed only in cases of rape, incest, or to save the life of the woman, and 9% said it should never be permitted under any circumstance, down from 11% in 2020.

  Because of the Catholic church’s strong teachings on the subject, Catholic voters appear educated on abortion issues. A solid majority (62%) are aware that a decision to overturn Roe v. Wade would result in federal and state legislators determining how to regulate abortion, as opposed to 24% who believe abortion immediately became illegal nationwide.

  By a nearly two-to-one margin, 59%-30%, Catholic voters support the Trump-era “conscience rule” that allows health care workers to opt out of procedures (such as abortion, sex-reassignment therapy, physician-assisted suicide) that conflict with their religious or moral beliefs.

  Regarding political clashes over gender identity, an overwhelming majority of Catholics (63%-25%) believe that gender was created by God rather than determined by individuals. On the divisive issue of allowing transgender people to participate in girls’ sports teams, 56% believe that allowing such competition conflicts with Catholic teaching.

  Most Catholic voters who are parents of school-aged children – 57% – said they had not considered alternate education for their children because of gender-identity-related school policies, but 33% have looked for other options, citing too much emphasis on gender identity in their children’s schools. 

  Susan Crabtree is RealClearPolitics’ White House/national political correspondent.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 07/16/2022 – 22:30

• US Conducts "Successful Test" Of Two Hypersonic Weapons
  US Conducts “Successful Test” Of Two Hypersonic Weapons

  The US successfully conducted tests of two different hypersonic weapons, the US Air Force (USAF) and Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) announced, according to Reuters. Pentagon efforts to field hypersonic weapons on the modern battlefield have yet to occur, while China and Russia advance their hypersonic missiles in a new superpower arms race. 

  Hypersonic weapons are designed to travel more than Mach 5 (five times the speed of sound or about 3,850 mph) and outmaneuver the world’s most advanced missile defense shields. The US has yet to field any hypersonic weapons, while China and Russia have already. 

  

  In a sign US hypersonic weapons could soon be fielded, USAF reported a successful test of its Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapon (ARRW) booster on Tuesday off the Southern California coast. The ARRW was air-launched from the wing of a Boeing B-52 Stratofortress. In previous tests this year, the weapon failed to launch (read: here & here). 

  “This second successful test demonstrates ARRW’s ability to reach and withstand operational hypersonic speeds, collect crucial data for use in further flight tests, and validate safe separation from the aircraft,” Lockheed said.

  

  “We have now completed our booster test series and are ready to move forward to all-up-round testing later this year,” Air Force Brigadier General Heath Collins said. What he means by “all-up-round” is a complete weapon test with a warhead in the next launch. 

  DARPA also completed a successful hypersonic weapon test at the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico. The Operational Fires hypersonic weapon performed as expected, though few details were provided about speed and range and if the warhead struck a target.  

  Unlike ARRW’s air launch from a bomber, Operational Fires is a ground-launched system that will “rapidly and precisely engage critical, time-sensitive targets while penetrating modern enemy air defenses.”

  

  Both successful tests come after a hypersonic weapon failed to ignite at the Pacific Missile Range Facility in Hawaii in late June. 

  What’s evident is that the US is falling behind the hypersonic arms race as China and Russia have already fielded these weapons that travel at extraordinary speeds. Russia has even used hypersonic missiles in attacks against Ukraine. Meanwhile, China flew one around the world. 

  Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin testified in April before the House Armed Services Committee. He was involved in heated exchanges with lawmakers about the slow pace of the US hypersonic weapon program.

  “You recently called in the defense industrial community that were involved in the hypersonics development as to how we can speed that up,” Republican Representative Mike Turner of Ohio said. “We’re behind our adversaries.”

  Even though the US spends more on national defense than China, India, Russia, the UK, Saudi Arabia, Germany, France, Japan, and South Korea — combined, the Pentagon has yet to field hypersonic weapons on the modern battlefield, while US’ adversaries do.

  

  And that’s a significant problem for the Pentagon, which acts as the world’s police. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 07/16/2022 – 22:00

• FBI Launched Inquiry Into NIH Funding Of Wuhan Lab, Emails Show
  FBI Launched Inquiry Into NIH Funding Of Wuhan Lab, Emails Show

  Authored by Eva Fu via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  

  The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) launched an inquiry into the National Institutes of Health (NIH) funding of bat research in the Wuhan Institute of Virology, newly released emails show.

  The interest from the top U.S. intelligence agency adds to the international scrutiny on the Wuhan facility, which houses one of China’s highest-level biosecurity labs that has been considered a possible source of the COVID-19 pandemic.

  “In preparation for our call on Tuesday, Erik [Stemmy] (cc’d) has provided responses to your initial questions below (also attached),” wrote Ashley Sanders, an investigation officer at the NIH’s division of program integriy, in an email (pdf) dated May 22, 2020 with the subject “Grant Questions – FBI Inquiry,” and directed to FBI agent David Miller.

  The email was obtained by government transparency watchdog Judicial Watch through a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit, which asked for records of communications, contracts, and agreements with the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV).

  The scope of the inquiry is unclear because the rest of the email correspondence, five pages in total, are entirely redacted. But the name of the email attachment “SF 424 AI110964-06 (received date 11/05/2018),” corresponds to the NIH grant “Understanding the Risk of Bat Coronavirus Emergence.”

  The project in question is headed by Peter Daszak of EcoHealth Alliance, which then funnels money to the lab in Wuhan. From 2014 to 2019, the New York nonprofit received six yearly grants totaling $3,748,715 from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases under the NIH to fund the project, which was expected to end in 2026.

  The FBI inquiry had focused on at least two of the grants, in 2014 and 2019 respectively, the email subject line suggests.

  The 2014 grant aimed to “understand what factors increase the risk of the next CoV emerging in people by studying CoV diversity in a critical zoonotic reservoir (bats), at sites of high risk for emergence (wildlife markets) in an emerging disease hotspot (China),” according to the project description. Specifically, the researchers would assess the coronavirus spillover potential, develop predictive models of bat coronavirus emergence risk, and use virus infection experiments as well as “reverse genetics” to test the virus’s transmission between species.

  

  In the project summary for the 2019 grant, EcoHealth stated that they had found that “bats in southern China harbor an extraordinary diversity of SARSr-CoVs,” and some of those viruses can “infect humanized mouse models causing SARS-like illness, and evade available therapies or vaccines.”

  Recently disclosed documents show that, under one grant, the WIV had conducted an experiment that resulted in a more potent version of a bat coronavirus.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 07/16/2022 – 21:30

• These Are The Countries With The Highest Default Risk
  These Are The Countries With The Highest Default Risk

  In May 2022, the South Asian nation of Sri Lanka defaulted on its debt for the first time. The country’s government was given a 30-day grace period to cover $78 million in unpaid interest, but ultimately failed to pay.

  Not only does this impact Sri Lanka’s economic future, but as Visual Capitalist’s Marcus Lu notes, it also raises an important question: which other countries are at risk of default?

  To find out, we’ve used data from Bloomberg to rank the countries with the highest default risk.

  

  The Sovereign Debt Vulnerability Ranking

  Bloomberg’s Sovereign Debt Vulnerability Ranking is a composite measure of a country’s default risk. It’s based on four underlying metrics:

  • Government bond yields (the weighted-average yield of the country’s dollar bonds)

  • 5-year credit default swap (CDS) spread

  • Interest expense as a percentage of GDP

  • Government debt as a percentage of GDP

  To better understand this ranking, let’s focus on Ukraine and El Salvador as examples.

  

   

  1 basis point (bps) = 0.01%

   

  Why are Ukraine’s Bond Yields so High?

  Ukraine has high default risk due to its ongoing conflict with Russia. To understand why, consider a scenario where Russia was to assume control of the country. If this happened, it’s possible that Ukraine’s existing debt obligations will never be repaid.

  That scenario has prompted a sell-off of Ukrainian government bonds, pushing their value down to nearly 30 cents on the dollar. This means that a bond with face value of $100 could be purchased for $30.

  Because yields move in the opposite direction of price, the average yield on these bonds has climbed to a very high 60.4%. As a point of comparison, the yield on a U.S. 10-year government bond is currently 2.9%.

  What is a CDS Spread?

  Credit default swaps (CDS) are a type of derivative (financial contract) that provides a lender with insurance in the event of a default. The seller of the CDS represents a third party between the lender (investors) and borrower (in this case, governments).

  In exchange for receiving coverage, the buyer of a CDS pays a fee known as the spread, which is expressed in basis points (bps). If a CDS has a spread of 300 bps (3%), this means that to insure $100 in debt, the investor must pay $3 per year.

  Applying this to Ukraine’s 5-year CDS spread of 10,856 bps (108.56%), an investor would need to pay $108.56 each year to insure $100 in debt (though it is in practice an upfront payment and then constant stream of payments which implies default is likely in the very short-term). This suggests that the market has very little faith in Ukraine’s ability to avoid default.

  Why is El Salvador Ranked Higher?

  Despite having lower values in the two metrics discussed above, El Salvador ranks higher than Ukraine because of its larger interest expense and total government debt.

  According to the data above, El Salvador has annual interest payments equal to 4.9% of its GDP, which is relatively high. Comparing to the U.S. once more, America’s federal interest costs amounted to 1.6% of GDP in 2020.

  When totaled, El Salvador’s outstanding debts are equal to 82.6% of GDP. This is considered high by historical standards, but today it’s actually quite normal.

  The next date to watch will be January 2023, as this is when the country’s $800 million sovereign bond reaches maturity. Recent research suggests that if El Salvador were to default, it would experience significant, yet temporary, negative effects.

  Another Hot Topic for El Salvador: Bitcoin

  In September 2021, El Salvador became the first country in the world to adopt bitcoin as legal tender. This means that Bitcoin is recognized by law as a means to settle debts and other obligations.

  The International Monetary Fund (IMF) criticized this decision in early 2022, urging the country to revoke legal tender status. In hindsight, these warnings were wise, as Bitcoin’s value has fallen by 56% year-to-date.

  While this isn’t directly related to El Salvador’s default risk, it does open potential avenues for relief. For instance, large players in the crypto space may be willing to assist the government to keep the concept of “nation-state bitcoin adoption” alive.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 07/16/2022 – 21:00

• The Feds Pile Up Vaccine 'Adverse Event' Reports As They Decry Scaremongering Elsewhere
  The Feds Pile Up Vaccine ‘Adverse Event’ Reports As They Decry Scaremongering Elsewhere

  Authored by Clayton Fox via RealClear Investigations,

  Since the Food and Drug Administration authorized the first vaccines for COVID-19 in late 2020, the government and much of the media have insisted that the medicines developed in record time are safe and effective. Those who raised questions about them have been routinely dismissed as conspiracy theorists.

  

  And yet an online database co-administered by the FDA and the Centers for Disease Control has compiled more than 1.3 million reports of vaccine-implicated  “adverse events” running the gamut from mild to severe, including 29,000 deaths.

  Representative entries include:

  • A 44-year-old male from California with a blood clot in the brain (CVST) five days after receiving Pfizer vaccine, dose unknown.

  • A 31-year-old female from Pennsylvania with heart inflammation (myocarditis) two days after receiving Moderna’s booster.

  • A 58-year-old female from California with blood clots in legs (DVT) after receiving Johnson & Johnson booster. She reported:

  “Day after booster on 11/16/21 my right leg was aching. 7 days later on 11/23/21 my sole of my right foot was very painful upon walking. This resolved 2 days later by 11/25/21. On day 11 (11/26/21) my ankle was slightly swollen and painful to touch. These symptoms continued to migrate up my leg to my inner thigh. On 12/13/21 I was seen by my primary care Doctor and was sent for a d-dimer blood test which was 1.77. I was seen in vascular dept and ultrasound indicated multiple DVT from my groin to my ankle.”

  These reports are not anecdotes from “anti-vaxxers” on the dark web. They come from the federal government’s open-source log, the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System. It allows anyone to go online and report a bad reaction that could be linked to any vaccine, including those for COVID-19.  (RealClearInvestigations has linked above to VAERS reports posted at Openvaers.com, an independently run and easier to navigate database that copies reports verbatim from the CDC’s less user-friendly “WONDER” system.)

  While the reports are unfiltered and unexamined, the idea is that such public input will allow researchers to identify potential problems. But the sheer number of reports, and their specificity, have the attention of concerned scientists and even some politicians like Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, who has invited people harmed by vaccines to testify before Congress and advocates compensation for them.

  Johnson’s office said he has been admonishing the health authorities over the VAERS reports for a year. “The senator believes the CDC and FDA need to take their own adverse event early warning system seriously and be transparent with the American people,” it said in a statement. “To date, they have not been.”

  

  VAERS was created in the late 1980s as an outgrowth of a congressional mandate to create a system for compensating vaccine victims and their families. In 2015, the CDC said the average number of annual reports was roughly 30,000. In 2021, there were nearly 1 million. Given the large increase during a politically charged pandemic, the usefulness of VAERS is the subject of great debate even among scientists

  Some health experts believe that the number of reports is primarily a function of increased publicity around the COVID vaccines, a high number indicating only that many more people are aware of the system and concerned about potential side effects from the shots. Others say the number and strong indications in certain symptom categories – such as the cardiovascular examples cited above – paint a bleaker picture of the vaccines’ safety.

  

  Dr. Peter McCullough, a renowned cardiologist and academic physician with over 600 papers published in medical literature, was one of the first professionals to publicly question the safety of the COVID-19 injections. On April 21, 2021, on his podcast The McCullough Report, he read out some of the early, alarming statistics from VAERS including reports of 502 heart attacks, 84 miscarriages, 321 cases of low blood platelet counts (thrombocytopenia) and 2,342 deaths. For Dr. McCullough, these numbers were a huge red flag. For comparison, he cites the last “mass vaccination program” undertaken in the United States, the 1976 swine flu vaccine. Dr. McCullough noted that there were approximately 55 million people vaccinated, with an accompanying 500 cases of Guillain-Barré syndrome, and around 25 deaths. “And the government officials at that time said, ‘we’re going to pull it.’”

  Dr. McCullough said that by April 2021, VAERS reports were already so numerous  that he felt the COVID vaccines should be pulled off the market. That same month, Fox News host Tucker Carlson voiced doubts about the vaccines’ effectiveness, and Dr. Anthony Fauci, President Biden’s top medical adviser, blasted him for pushing “a typical crazy conspiracy theory.”  

  As of today, the system has more than 29,000 reports of deaths.

  

  VAERS reports, however, are not hard evidence. Its website explains: “A report to VAERS generally does not prove that the identified vaccine(s) caused the adverse event described. It only confirms that the reported event occurred sometime after vaccine was given. No proof that the event was caused by the vaccine is required in order for VAERS to accept the report. VAERS accepts all reports without judging whether the event was caused by the vaccine.” Some of the FDA and CDC’s most senior veterans advise caution in interpreting the data.

  Susan Ellenberg, PhD, the former Director of the Office of Biostatistics and Epidemiology at the FDA’s Center for Biologics, told RCI that “anything that gets reported goes directly into the [VAERS] system … so mostly what you get is noise.” She said that it’s nearly impossible to prove causation with this dataset alone. Dr. Walter Orenstein, formerly the CDC’s director of immunization, concurs. He said, “That’s why it’s called adverse ‘events’ as opposed to reaction because reaction implies causation. Event is basically something that follows.” Elderly people, for example, die regularly; if they are dying days or weeks after being vaccinated, that does not necessarily mean the vaccine is killing them.

  There are many reasons why the VAERS data is usually insufficient to prove causality between vaccination and adverse events, including:

  • There is no reliable denominator to establish event rates – and no “control” group against which to measure adverse events.

  • Reports are often messy or incomplete.

  • Underreporting has been a consistent and documented issue. (One CDC study shows that the system may capture as few as 12% of adverse events, meaning the total for COVID-19 vaccines could be as high as 10.8 million.)

  • On the other hand, overreporting is also an issue, as noted in this 2003 CDC review: “Other potential reporting biases include increased reporting in the first few years after licensure, increased reporting of events occurring soon after vaccination, and increased reporting after publicity about a particular known or alleged type of adverse event.”

  • In the case of childhood vaccinations, vaccine sets are co-administered, making it nearly impossible to know which specific vaccine caused the adverse event.

  So why continue using an unreliable system – apart from the fact it was required by Congress? Experts agree that VAERS can be extremely useful in picking up signals of causation, which can be confirmed with further study, usually employing the government’s other major monitoring system: the CDC’s Vaccine Safety Datalink. The VSD uses the combined databases of nine major healthcare systems nationwide, providing detailed patient data, and the ability to look at control groups of unvaccinated patients. The downside to the VSD is that unless an issue comes through the healthcare system, it’s not going to be reported. So if someone dies at home after being vaccinated, it won’t make it into VSD, though it might make it into VAERS.

  One prime example of VAERS picking up a signal leading to an important safety discovery occurred in the late 1990s with the RotaShield vaccine for rotavirus – an ailment that causes diarrhea and vomiting in the very young. While clinical trials revealed a small number of cases of intussusception – the sometimes-deadly folding of the intestine in small children – the  finding was not seen as prohibitive. Nonetheless, public health researchers flagged it as something to look for in VAERS as the vaccine was distributed widely. When reports started piling up in VAERS, it led to a review process, which ultimately led to the manufacturer pulling the vaccine off the market and the FDA pulling its license. A clear success for the system.

  In the case of the COVID-19 vaccine products, Dr. Orenstein said VAERS has been a success, and that the large number of reports has been helpful in identifying certain issues. “The increased volume may be a good thing. Because of the increased reporting we’ve been able to detect causally related problems, with mRNA problems with myocarditis and pericarditis, and with J&J coagulation problems and Guillain-Barré, so in essence, VAERS is important.”

  Jessica Rose, an independent researcher in Israel, agrees, and has devoted the past year and a half to putting VAERS under a microscope. Dr. Rose has a PhD in computational biology from Bar-Ilan University, a post-doc in molecular biology from Hebrew University, and another in biochemistry from the Technion, widely considered Israel’s MIT. She has become a fierce critic of the COVID-19 vaccines and spent countless hours poring over VAERS reports to craft her articles on the emergent issues.

  

  For Rose, who has been collaborating with Dr. McCullough, the information available in the VAERS system on its own is sufficient to prove causality when it comes to vaccine-induced myocarditis from all three vaccines, especially the mRNA-based shots from Pfizer and Moderna. They specifically raise concerns around the high rate of myocarditis reported among boys ages 12-15. Their paper stating this was received, peer-reviewed, and accepted by Elsevier, the publisher of Current Problems in Cardiology, where the piece was to be released. It was then withdrawn from the site at the discretion of the editor. No basis was given for the removal. Dr. McCullough described the situation in detail to Bret Weinstein on his Dark Horse podcast in December. When asked for comment, Dr. McCullough told RealClearInvestigations:

  Elsevier, the world’s largest medical publisher, has for the first time in its history started violating publication contracts with unilateral retractions in the pandemic era. These papers were fully peer-reviewed, contracted, and published without any threats to scientific validity. The one thing in common for these retractions – they provided data on COVID-19 vaccine injuries, disabilities, and deaths. Thus Elsevier has broken the trust of the consuming public, doctors, and patients. In addition to legal exposure, Elsevier is losing ground to MDPI and other publishers that do not engage in corrupt censorship.

  Asked to respond to the cardiologist’s comment, Elsevier issued this statement to RCI: “We do not agree with these assertions; this article in press was withdrawn following our standard policies which are all publicly available on our website.”

  The Lyme Disease Precedent

  Dr. Orenstein and the federal health apparatus now acknowledge that adverse outcomes like myocarditis, coagulopathies/thrombosis, and Guillain-Barré have been established as causally related to the COVID-19 shots in certain cohorts – and that VAERS played a role in making those connections – but see them as rare.

  Former FDA epidemiologist Ellenberg says the sheer number of events in VAERS may reflect the revival of an old phenomenon: high adverse publicity around vaccines, similar to what happened with the Lyme disease vaccine and arthritis.

  Lyme disease can cause arthritis. So can aging. When many reports of arthritis started appearing in VAERS after that vaccine was rolled out in 1998, bad publicity followed. Ellenberg started receiving phone calls from lawyers asking her when FDA was going to pull the vaccine. Ultimately, FDA convened a panel to look into the correlation, and no causal connection was found. “But because of the publicity, use of the vaccine waned and eventually the producer took it off the market.”

  Regarding the COVID-19 vaccines, Jessica Rose said VAERS shows a grim picture that has nothing to do with publicity. The reporting system “is functioning as a pharmacovigilance tool right now,” she said. “There are an enormous number and range of safety signals being thrown out.”

  In March 2022, after the COVID-19 vaccine had been available for 15 months (462 days), she compared the number of VAERS reports related to these shots versus those for flu vaccines. Given the greater number of COVID shots administered during that period, she predicted that “the rate of reporting in VAERS…should be about twice for COVID than for flu.” What she found instead was “117.6 times as many reports of adverse events in the context of the COVID shots.”

  Rose is adamant. “This is not about the number of doses, this is about these products doing more damage [than the flu vaccines],” she said, “systemic, comprehensive damage that we’ve never seen before. There’s no doubting that these products are different.” When RCI queried Rose as to which three adverse events might be most readily proven as being caused by the vaccine with data posted in VAERS, she replied, “Myocarditis, Bell’s palsy, and anything related to clotting.

  Quietly, large numbers of peer-reviewed studies have been accumulating in legitimate journals, lending credence to those who believe many adverse events are occurring, and that they are causally related to vaccination. Just recently, a study of vaccines in three Nordic countries revealed a strong correlation between getting the Astra-Zeneca shot and a higher incidence of cardiovascular injury, and a lesser but still significant correlation for recipients of the Pfizer and Moderna products.

  Finally, a “preprint” study (not yet peer reviewed) uploaded June 23 and co-authored by Peter Doshi, a senior editor at the British Medical Journal, as well as physicians from UCLA and Stanford, concludes that a careful analysis of all available data now suggests that the benefits of vaccination do not outweigh the potential harms. To make their calculations, the researchers used data from VAERS as well as its European equivalent, EudraVigilance, and the WHO’s VigiBase.

  But the story remains complicated. For instance, Rose agreed drawing conclusions is complicated by the lack of data in VAERS about whether reporting patients have also recovered from COVID. Studies have now shown that having had COVID also increases the risk of cardiovascular events in the year after recovery. On the other hand, an Israeli analysis shows a correlation to vaccine rollout, but not to COVID-19 infection rates.

  With such variables, the task of monitoring vaccine safety can seem almost futile. But Dr. Robert Chen, the creator of VAERS, disagrees. He believes the system, in concert with the Vaccine Safety Datalink and other resources, has worked well in alerting the public health community to issues due to vaccination. He told RCI that “in terms of its main function of telling you that something is going on, it’s amazingly effective.”

  Dr. Orenstein said the VSD should be expanded if possible as a complement to VAERS but said that without a single national database, the current system of monitoring vaccine safety is “as good as it gets.” For Ellenberg, a statistician by training, “these are horrible, messy databases. You’re looking for a needle in a haystack.” When talking to other epidemiologists and encouraging them to create better systems for analyzing VAERS, Ellenberg said she uses this analogy: “If you can reduce the whole haystack to a handful of hay, then that makes your job just a little bit easier.”

  Rose acknowledges the messiness of VAERS, but believes it provides enough information to tell a story of danger. She said that in her analysis, 60% of VAERS reports describe events within 48 hours of vaccine administration – one more criteria for causality. Rose said: “It isn’t on me to prove that these products aren’t safe, this is on them [CDC, FDA], legally, to prove that these products are safe. And they’re not doing their jobs.” On that point, a recent public records request by Josh Guetzkow, Ph.D., and the legal team at Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s Children’s Health Defense found that CDC has not been analyzing the VAERS data on COVID-19 shots using its own stated methods.

  In an email to RCI, the CDC stated, “COVID-19 vaccines are undergoing the most intense safety monitoring in U.S. history.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 07/16/2022 – 20:30

• Comparing The Cost Of Living Around The World
  Comparing The Cost Of Living Around The World

  The amount of money that’s needed to pay for day-to-day expenses like housing and food varies greatly from city to city. And some cities, like New York City, are known as especially expensive places to live.

  So how do everyday expenses in New York City truly compare in costs to places like Beirut, Lebanon, or Bangalore, India?

  This graphic by Victor Dépré (hypntic.data) uses 2022 data from Numbeo to compare the cost of living and purchasing power in 578 different cities around the world, using New York City as a benchmark for comparison.

  

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  The Cost of Living Index

  Though New York City is widely recognized as one of the most expensive cities in the world, as Visual Capitalist’s Carmen Ang details below, according to Numbeo – the world’s largest database of user-contributed data on cities and countries – there are a number of cities that are actually more expensive than the Big Apple.

  Here’s a look at the comparative cost of living in 578 cities. For context, if a city has a cost of living index of 121, that means day-to-day expenses in it are 21% higher than New York’s, on average:

  

  Bermuda’s capital city Hamilton ranks first on the list, with a cost of living that’s nearly 50% higher than New York’s.

  Why is Hamilton so expensive? One reason is that nearly everything needs to be imported onto the tiny British archipelago—things like gas, groceries, and clothes—so it’s likely that prices in the territory are steep as a result.

  Second on the list is Zurich, Switzerland, where expenses are roughly 30% higher than New York City. Food and beverages are particularly expensive in the region—according to the dataset, groceries are 58% more expensive than groceries in NYC, and restaurant prices are 55% higher.

  However, it’s worth noting that while Zurich ranks high on the cost of living index, the city’s purchasing power is also strong, which we will dive into in the next section.

  The Local Purchasing Power Index

  Purchasing power is a metric that’s used to gauge the number of goods and services someone on an average salary can buy in that specific city.

  Taking a look again at Zurich, consumers in the city have about 30% more purchasing power than New York City residents on average, despite having higher costs.

  

  In contrast, the average consumer in Hamilton, Bermuda has a relatively low purchasing power. Based on the average net salary in the city, consumers can afford about 30% less than people in New York City.

  Inflation Continues to Drive Prices Up

  Amidst rising inflation and increased prices for consumer goods, cost of living has become top of mind for many people around the world.

  Since late 2021, the world has been experiencing a cost of living crisis, largely because of pent-up demand following the COVID-19 pandemic, coupled with supply chain issues and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

  But according to UBS Chief Economist Paul Donovan, we’ve likely seen the worst of it, and inflation is likely to decrease across the globe in the second half of the year.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 07/16/2022 – 20:00

• The 2022 House Midterm By The Numbers
  The 2022 House Midterm By The Numbers

  Authored by James E. Campbell via RealClearPolitics.com,

  Midterm elections involve high stakes, a great deal of groundless guessing, and lots of numbers – oddly similar to lotteries. Unlike lotteries, though, the many numbers associated with midterm elections are meaningful. The six meaningful midterm “lotto” numbers below should help historically ground your anticipation of what is likely or unlikely to happen in this year’s House elections, as well as set the eventual outcome in its historical perspective. You will have to use your imagination about the numbered ping-pong balls and the machine mixing them up.

  On to the all-important numbers.

  

  Our first number is 7.

  Since 1912 when the size of the House was fixed at 435 seats, there have been 27 midterm elections. As most everyone knows, the president’s party gained seats in only three of these (1934, 1998, and 2002). But in four additional midterms, in-party’s losses were minimal (fewer than ten seats). 7 glimmers of hope for Democrats.

  Our second number is 58.

  The 7 in-party success story midterms are ordered in Table 1 by the net number of seats gained or lost by the president’s party. Gallup’s presidential approval ratings immediately prior to the election are included, with two exceptions. These are Coolidge’s 1926 and FDR’s 1934 midterms that pre-date Gallup’s collection of approval ratings.

  

  In each of these 7 midterm success stories, presidents were very popular. Approval ratings were in the mid-60s for three and likely a fourth – that being Kennedy in 1962. His mid-October rating was a strong 61%, but it missed the boost he received from the resolution of the Cuban missile crisis. The crisis occurred after the October poll, but before the election. In his first post-midterm poll in late November, Kennedy’s rating had soared to 74%. His approval on election day was probably in the mid to high 60s.

  The two presidents on the list with unmeasured approval marks, Coolidge and FDR, were certainly very popular in their midterms. Both midterms were bracketed by presidential landslides. The list’s lowest approval rating of a president is President George H.W. Bush in 1990 at 58%. To get on the midterm success story list, it takes a presidential approval rating of at least 58%.

  Our third number is 41. 

  In contrast to success stories of popular presidents, parties of unpopular presidents routinely take a beating. The midterms of the eight least popular presidents in the 19 midterms since 1946 are listed in Table 2. The table starts with 1946, the first midterm in which Gallup’s presidential approval ratings were collected. Presidential unpopularity ranged from the mildly unpopular Obama (45% approval) in 2010 to the extremely unpopular Truman (33% approval) in 1946. In seven of these eight midterms with unpopular presidents, the in-party lost more than 25 seats. In two, losses exceeded 55 seats.

  

  2022 easily makes the list of midterms with unpopular presidents. Biden’s approval rating took a dive in late summer of 2021 and has slowly sunk even lower. The multiple reasons for his unpopularity are too numerous to catalog here, but they span the three crucial dimensions of dissatisfaction with his record (including the economy), his policy ineffectiveness and extremism across a wide range of issues, and a lack of confidence in his leadership.

  For whatever mix of reasons, Biden’s presidential approval ratings are dismal. In the RCP daily average of polls, Biden’s approval has been less than 43% since January 2, 2022 (as of July 4th, for 183 consecutive days) and less than 41% since May 25, 2022. His approval ratings in Gallup have been 43% or lower for ten straight months (since September 2021). Gallup observed that no first-term president from Eisenhower in 1954 to Trump in 2018 has had a lower approval rating than Biden’s in June of the second year of his term. None lower. Biden’s rating for June was 41%.

  Our fourth number is 0.

  Though most attention in 2020 was focused on the controversial presidential contest and then on the 50-50 tie in Senate after the pair of controversial Senate runoffs in Georgia, attention in more normal times would have been drawn to the razor-thin party division for control of the House. Democrats won 222 seats and Republicans 213, providing Democrats with a 5 seat majority.

  A major question for the 2022 midterm is whether Democrats can hold the House. Can they avoid a net seat loss of five seats or more to the Republicans? In the 27 midterms since 1914, as Table 1 showed, the president’s party has only avoided losing fewer than five seats on four occasions. In three (1934, 1998, and 2002) they gained seats, and in a fourth (1986) they lost four seats. As we noted in Table 1, the presidents in these midterms were very popular (63% approval or better). Biden does not reside in that hemisphere. At 41%, he is 22 points short. With the consistency of his low ratings, the fact that many who disapprove of his performance do so strongly (i.e., not just chants of “Let’s Go Brandon”), and the multifaceted grounds for disapproval, the probability of Democrats maintaining their House majority is 0 (zero).

  Our fifth number is 34.

  With Biden’s poor approval ratings, placing him in the middle or lower in Table 2’s list of unpopular presidents, the real question is how many seats Republicans will gain. To this point, we have focused on one important determinant of midterm outcomes, the popularity or unpopularity of the president. But a second important factor is the number of seats each party currently holds and the limits of the party’s competitiveness.

  Both parties have competitive limits imposed by the partisan stability of American politics. Some districts are realistically “off the table” for a party. Even under the best of circumstances, the party stands no real chance of winning them. In the aggregate, this creates upper and lower limits for how many seats a party can realistically win or lose. The limits can change with time, especially after realignments alter party competitiveness, but are otherwise are quite resilient.

  Table 3 lists the top ten strongest Republican Party outcomes over the 45 House elections (on-year and midterm) held in the 90 years since FDR’s election of 1932. As several others have also noted (see Josh Kraushaar, “How Big a Wave can House Republicans expect?” National Journal, 6/23/22), the upper limit for Republicans has been 247 seats. The GOP has reached into the 240s in four elections, but topped out at 247 seats in 2014. In 2022, Republicans can reach their historical competitiveness limit of 247 with a gain of 34 seats over their 2020 showing. Any gains beyond 34 would be a historic breakthrough.

  

  Our sixth and final number is 13. 

  In reviewing the list of midterm seat losses for the president’s party, Democrats might take heart in the results of Obama’s 2014 midterm. Obama’s approval rating of only 42% that year is comparable to Biden’s low ratings this year, and the Republicans in 2014 gained only 13 seats. Among midterms with unpopular presidents, this was an unusually light loss.

  Why did Democrats lose so few seats that year with Obama’s ratings so low, and could this happen again in 2022? Could the Democrats with their highly unpopular president escape 2022 with only minor bruises? At this point, many Democrats might celebrate Republicans picking up only a dozen or so seats.

  This is not going to happen, and Table 4 explains why. The table lists the twelve midterm elections since 1934 in which a Democrat was in the White House. The midterms are ordered by the number of seats Republicans held after the midterm. It also indicates how many seats Republicans held coming into the midterm and the seat change produced by the midterm. As in Table 3, the 247 Republican limit is clear. It is also clear that Republican seat gains in 2014 were as small as they were because Republicans at 234 seats went into the election already very close to their 247 historical limit. The gain of only 13 seats reflects the constraints of the competitiveness limit.

  

  In 2022, Republicans enter the midterm with much more room from their competitiveness limit than they had in 2014 and with many reasons to think that their 247 limit may no longer be their limit. There is significant movement of working class voters across racial and ethnic groups toward the Republicans. There is movement in party affiliations. In the end, history regularly constrains us; but, on occasion, history can also be made.

  So to recap, your House-Midterm Lotto Numbers for 2022 are: 0, 7, 13, 34, 41 and 58.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 07/16/2022 – 19:30

• Skittles Allegedly "Unfit For Human Consumption," Lawsuit Claims
  Skittles Allegedly “Unfit For Human Consumption,” Lawsuit Claims

  Bloomberg Law reports a new lawsuit filed in California claims that Skittles contain a dangerous toxin called “titanium dioxide,” rendering the candy “unfit for human consumption.” 

  On Thursday, plaintiff Jenile Thames filed a lawsuit in the Northern District of California against Skittles-maker Mars Inc., alleging consumers who “taste the rainbow” of sugar “are at heightened risk of a host of health effects for which they were unaware stemming from genotoxicity – the ability of a chemical substance to change DNA.”

  

  Mars uses titanium dioxide as food coloring to make the candy more visually appealing. The toxin is also used in industrial applications such as plastics, adhesives, printer inks, and roofing materials. 

  The civil suit argues Mars understood the risks of using titanium dioxide in candy-making and, in 2016, even publicly announced that it would eliminate the toxin from food. In Europe, France banned the toxin from food in 2019, and in 2021, the European Food Safety Authority determined it couldn’t be considered safe for consumption.

  “Incredibly, Defendant even claimed that ‘[a]rtificial colors pose no known risks to human health or safety,'” Thames’s lawsuit alleges. “In doing so, Defendant concealed from consumers material information it knew.”

  Thames said Skittles sold in the US still contain titanium dioxide and Mars is “failing to inform consumers of the implications of consuming the toxin.”

  “Instead, Defendant relies on the ingredient list which is provided in minuscule print on the back of the Products, the reading of which is made even more challenging by the lack of contrast in color between the font and packaging, as set out below in a manner in which consumers would normally view the product in the store,” court papers said. 

  Thames seeks class-action status for all US consumers and unspecified damages from Mars. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 07/16/2022 – 19:00

• California Spent $500 Million On Diversity, Equity, & Inclusion Training, Report Reveals
  California Spent $500 Million On Diversity, Equity, & Inclusion Training, Report Reveals

  Authored by Matt McGregor via The Epoch Times,

  California has spent up to $500 million on diversity, equity, and inclusion programs in its local government, K-12 school districts, and higher education in the years between 2020 and 2022, according to a report from a nonprofit watchdog group.

  

  The Center for Organizational Research and Education (CORE) researches activist groups to report on their “funding, agendas, and tactics.”

  “In recent years, the concept of critical race theory and its variants – often camouflaged as more generic ‘diversity, equity, and inclusion’ (DEI) activities, has entered the national spotlight, and infiltrated publicly-funded entities,” CORE said.

  The analysis summarizes the results of 400 public record requests sent to state and local governments, and higher education and K-12 institutions in California, CORE said.

  “The results are unmistakable: spending related to DEI and critical race theory-framed activities is a vast and growing component of taxpayer-funded spending at all levels of California government,” CORE stated.

  DEI has become its own $1 billion industry funded by taxpayer dollars, CORE said.

  “Based on the responsive documents our team received, we calculated at least $188 million directly linked DEI spending, and $308 million more in adjacent spending, totaling nearly $500 million in possible DEI spending in California,” CORE said in its report.

  The total DEI represents 46 percent of requests for public records of DEI spending sent out, CORE said, with less than 11 percent of institutions responding that they had no records related to the request.

  “Considering roughly 40 percent of our requests are still unfulfilled, we expect the true amount is much higher,” CORE said.

  “Our findings are proof that critical race theory and DEI are a vast and growing part of the California government.”

  …

  CORE points to the Department of Conservation, which, “despite experiencing some of its worst-recorded forest fires and water shortages,” the department spent $180,000 of its environmental budget on including critical race theory in its training.

  …

  The argument for critical race theory is often that it’s teaching real history, while those who would have critical race theory removed are trying to “whitewash” history; however, there’s been no evidence of any public school attempting to erase entire sections of its curriculum on slavery.

  “Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion is becoming California’s newest billion-dollar industry—on the taxpayer’s dime,” CORE lead researcher Will Coggin told Fox News Digital.

  “It’s everywhere from kindergarten in the classrooms to the Department of Fish and Wildlife. Instead of effectively addressing issues like housing, crime, or homelessness, California officials have chosen to line the pockets of well-connected diversity consultants,” Coggin said.

  …

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 07/16/2022 – 18:30

• Far Fewer Military Families Recommend Uniformed Service: Survey
  Far Fewer Military Families Recommend Uniformed Service: Survey

  Substantially fewer military families would recommend uniformed service to others, a new survey by Military Family Advisory Network (MFAN) finds.  

  Just 63% of surveyed service members and family members would recommend service to someone considering it. That’s a big drop from just two years earlier, when 75% said they’d encourage others to join. The results released on July 14 are from a far-ranging survey of more than 8,600 people conducted in late 2021. 

  The finding is an ill omen for military recruiters who are already struggling to meet their goals. The U.S. Army Recruiting Command (USAREC) says a whopping 71% of youth do not qualify for military service because of obesity, drugs, physical and mental health problems, misconduct and aptitude. 

  Meanwhile, USAREC likes to call the Army a “family business,” noting that 79% of recruits have a relative who served. Substantially lower enthusiasm among those who’ve served is certain to throw a wet blanket on recruiting efforts.     

  

  When researchers delved into the thinking of service members, veterans and family members who won’t recommend military service, five top rationales surfaced: 

  • Military service is hard on marriages, family relationships and relationships with children
  • Military pay is too low, especially given the job’s difficulty and stress
  • Some military leaders are bad, corrupt, abusive and controlling
  • Benefits such as health care aren’t worth the challenges associated with service
  • Frequent moves between duty stations and frequent overseas deployments

  The report includes some representative quotes from respondents…

  “It is not easy. It will wreak havoc in your relationship. I would recommend it if you plan on staying single and/or not having children” — Spouse of an active duty Marine.

  “My husband is gone all the time requiring me to leave my job and raise the children alone. It has put a lot of strain on our marriage.” — Navy spouse

  “PTSD created insecurities and other issues that held to the end of the marriage.” — Army veteran

  “It is a difficult job and life, and the ‘benefits’ simply are not worth it. Especially since said benefits just keep dwindling and decreasing in quality the longer we are in. Military life not only affects the mental health of the service member but also that of their family. Additionally, I would not want anyone I care about, or even people I don’t care about, to be subjected to toxic work environments.” — Navy spouse

  “With constantly PCSing, it is difficult to establish a long lasting relationship. Especially the kids. Moving, changing schools in the middle of the semester, leaving friends, etc. It’s super hard for them.” — Army spouse

  The survey also found 54% of military and veteran family respondents have experienced loneliness and 23% of enlisted families reported difficulty affording food.  

  “When we’re going through this report and seeing some of the findings and the reality that a lot of families are having a hard time making ends meet, it’s not all that startling to see that there will be a decline [in service members, veterans and family members recommending service],” MFAN president Shannon Razsadin tells Defense One. “But what I was really surprised by was that it was as big of a decline as it is.”

  There are surely more declines to come—as more service members and veterans reluctantly realize their participation in America’s unjust and disastrous military interventions has done nothing good for their fellow citizens or the world. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 07/16/2022 – 18:00

• The Strangest Recession Of Our Lifetimes
  The Strangest Recession Of Our Lifetimes

  Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

  The evidence of economic weakness and decline fill the headlines day by day, with major banks reporting lower earnings, big box stores with excess inventories, home sales skidding, and consumer sentiment crashing.

  Meanwhile, inflation in all sectors is raging so high and hot that it has overtaken every other issue that polls say matter in the lives of average Americans.

  

  This inflationary recession—also called stagflation—is an odd beast in any case. The combination of both purchasing power declines and falling productivity violates not only every modeling presumption made since the Keynesian revolution of the 1930s but also just plain intuition. Higher prices are supposed to signal higher demand and/or tighter supply, not lower demand and higher supply.

  So yes, this is strange. We are going to have to get used to it. It’s what happens when the money itself loses its integrity. The whole point of money in the first place—the essence of its economic utility—is to provide a common tool of measurement to facilitate trade and enable accounting. Its emergence permits investors, producers, and capital owners to assess the economic rationality of their actions.

  When money blows up and no longer serves as a reliable guide to economic realities, various degrees of chaos ensue. You can feel like you are getting richer when you are really getting poorer. What can seem like profits are really losses. What seems like a hopeful environment can quickly switch to the other direction and become despair.

  This is why inflation induces such fear in every sector of life.

  We learned this in the 1970s as stagflation gradually took over in successive waves until it was stopped in 1981 by two major shifts: tighter money and a policy emphasis on strong economic growth. Today we are getting the former but not the latter, virtually guaranteeing a serious quagmire that will last at least two more years. The economic damage of this period will be too enormous to contemplate.

  But let’s take a careful look at the strangest anomaly of all: the unemployment rate. It is historically low right now, at 3.6 percent. That is far lower than it has ever been during any impending recession. In fact, it is as low as any period since the end of World War II.

  

  (Data: Federal Reserve Economic Data [FRED], St. Louis Fed; Chart: Jeffrey A. Tucker)

  And yet, everyone knows that this is not a reason for hope: the labor participation rate is about where it was forty years ago, as if the whole experience of a more inclusive workforce never happened. It is also currently falling. There are reasons both demographic and cultural for this but it is impossible to understand without reference to the egregious and devastating effects of lockdowns.

  

  (Data: Federal Reserve Economic Data [FRED], St. Louis Fed; Chart: Jeffrey A. Tucker)

  In other words, the official unemployment rate measures only those who are looking for work right now. It does not count those who are not looking for work (or who have figured out how to pay the bills by working unofficially).

  That makes sense in a way. Why count people who are not even looking for work as part of the unemployed masses?

  On the other hand, it is a case of how a statistically accurate number can create a seriously misleading picture.

  By any standard, this measure of economic health is broken. Every recession on record in the 20th century has been marked by high unemployment. This pattern has been so strong that it has confused even smart economists, many of whom came to believe that the labor problem was itself a cause—rather than an effect—of the recession. They often sought to solve this issue through benefits and job creation programs, policy tricks that have never worked.

  Today, this no longer works. But this points to a larger problem: most of these data sets are overly aggregated. The big number treats all “workers” as a whole without regard to demographics. The Department of Labor tries to break it down by categories but not in ways that are particularly helpful. We can find out all kinds of things about race and gender but not much about the issue that really terrifies people: which income groups are most vulnerable to job insecurity today.

  Only about 20 percent of U.S. workers are able to earn more than $100,000 per year but these are the target jobs that every single college graduate wants. Ironically, this is because everyone knows that these are the jobs that require the least work and offer the most benefits. They are the Zoom jobs that everyone wanted to have during the lockdowns because it meant getting up late, wearing PJs all day, and starting cocktail hour mid-afternoon.

  Life was good! Better than good!

  My friends, beware. Everything we are seeing among current economic trends suggests that these jobs, more than any other, are vulnerable to being slaughtered in tight economic times.

  This would be the opposite of the 2008 recession. Back then, unemployment peaked at 10 percent. But a more careful look at the numbers showed something incredible. This affected the high incomes not at all: their rate of unemployment never went above 3.2 percent.

  A breakdown of the data revealed that the unemployment of that period hit mostly the working classes earning wages, while leaving the upper incomes untouched. The disparity of economic suffering was the single most salient feature of that period.

  This time, we face something completely different. There is a huge shortage of workers willing to earn relatively lower incomes, show up to the office, earn wages, and actually work with their hands, drive the trucks, move the boxes, and make the food. There is, on the other hand, a huge surplus of workers demanding huge salaries to stare at screens, stay home, gossip on Slack, and otherwise deploy their generous benefits packages to their maximum extent.

  This recession will very likely be felt in the labor markets severely but the impact will not be among those who are willing to do actual work versus earn high incomes by virtue of their college credentials. The people who are in for a rude awakening are those who have heretofore imagined that their CVs alone would guarantee a good life.

  In other words, this will be a “welcome-to-reality” moment for the entire class of people who rode out the pandemic response by “staying home and staying safe” while expecting the working classes to serve their every need. They gladly took their stimulus checks even though they saw no interruption in their income streams, while figuring out clever ways to trick their bosses into believing they were productive while doing almost nothing at all.

  Perhaps the best term for our times is: reckoning. Thanks to massive government spending and the magic printing press, the administrative state created a fake world in which the overclass thrived for at least two years. Some might say that this fakery actually began in 2008 and continued through the whole decade.

  In the end, economic reality can be slow to dawn but the dawn can burn very bright once it happens. This inflationary recession will be one for the ages. It could be a rare instance in which the overclass itself feels the most pain while workers with actual skills and the desire to produce will find a way to make it through despite every obstacle.

  The “essential workers” are about to find out just how essential they really are.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 07/16/2022 – 17:30

• Major Study Confirms COVID Vaccines Alter Women's Periods
  Major Study Confirms COVID Vaccines Alter Women’s Periods

  Since Covid vaccines first became available more than a year and a half ago, women have been sounding alarms about the shots’ adverse effect on their menstruation.

  For example, in an August 2021 article at The Grayzone that criticized the U.S. medical establishment’s failure to study the effects of the vaccines on women’s reproductive systems, Marcie Smith Parenti recounted disturbing experiences from her own circle of friends: 

  Their symptoms have included hemorrhagic bleeding lasting more than a month; heavy intermittent bleeding for four months; passing golf-ball size clots of blood; and extreme cramping, serious enough to land one friend in the ER.

  On social media, the The Grayzone was accused of “fearmongering,” being “anti-vax,” and peddling “dangerous disinformation.” Meanwhile, the response of the FDA and CDC to women’s pleas might be best characterized as a bureaucratic shrug.

  In August, NPR said the FDA and all three U.S. vaccine manufacturers claimed “they have not seen evidence that any of the vaccines cause menstrual irregularities.” The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists said it was “aware” of the complaints, but urged women to plunge forward with vaccinations anyway without regard to the timing of their cycles.   

  Now, however, a large-scale study adds substantial new confirmation of what thousands of women have been proclaiming since the jabs started. As NBC News reports: 

  “An analysis published Friday in the journal Science Advances found that 42% of people with regular menstrual cycles said they bled more heavily than usual after vaccination…14% reported a lighter period.“

  The study also found many women who don’t typically menstruate—such as those beyond menopause and those on certain long-term contraceptives—experienced “breakthrough” or unexpected bleeding after receiving Covid vaccines.

  The left wing of the Covidian cult could not stand that we trusted actual women more than Pfizer’s PR department https://t.co/ifGDUqvYZt

  — Max Blumenthal (@MaxBlumenthal) July 16, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The authors of the study note that the percentages reporting unusual menstruation may overstate the actual frequency to some degree, as those who’d had bad experiences may have been more inclined to participate in the study.  

  One of the authors is University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign biological anthropologist Kathryn Clancy, who’d experienced the phenomenon herself. In her case, it was an extraordinarily heavy and lengthy period, which is called “menstrual flooding.”

  Her suspicions were magnified when one of her graduate students had told her she’d “had the worst cramps of her life” after receiving a Covid shot. Clancy promptly took to Twitter in February 2021 and asked if other women had endured anything similar. Many confirmed they had, which led to the launch of a formal study. 

  She and the grad student, Katharine Lee, initially set out to survey 500 women. That many signed up in a single hour. The authors reset their sights and ended up with more than 165,000 participants from all over the world. This week’s findings represent an analysis of a subset of more than 39,000 participants between 18 and 80 years old.

  It remains to be seen if the menstrual changes are a sign of something more sinister. Regardless, many women who’ve experienced them without having received an FDA warning about the side-effect have surely been alarmed. Post-menopausal bleeding, for example, is a symptom of uterine cancer. 

  Why was there no warning from the FDA? Because those who participated in Covid vaccine trials weren’t even asked about menstrual changes. 

  For its part, The New York Times cheerfully assures us that “experts” say there’s no cause for alarm. Sure, the “experts” have already unleashed a multifaceted public health catastrophe in the name of battling Covid, but trust them this time, ladies!

  A new study — the largest to date — shows how the Covid vaccine may affect menstruation. Experts say, based on the findings, there is no cause for alarm. https://t.co/V5MvxkHwYU

  — The New York Times (@nytimes) July 15, 2022

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  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 07/16/2022 – 17:00

• 'Strong Consumer'? Money, Not COVID, Is The Biggest Travel Hurdle This Summer
  ‘Strong Consumer’? Money, Not COVID, Is The Biggest Travel Hurdle This Summer

  After two years of COVID-related restrictions and inhibitions, travelers are ready to hit the beaches in masses this summer – that is if they can still afford it…

  

  Source: FreightWaves.com

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 07/16/2022 – 16:00

• This Proxy War Has No Exit Strategy
  This Proxy War Has No Exit Strategy

  Authored by Caitlin Johnstone via Medium.com,

  The International Committee of the Democratic Socialists of America has released a statement opposing the US government’s ongoing proxy war in Ukraine, saying the billions being funneled into the military-industrial complex “at a time when ordinary Americans are struggling to pay for housing, groceries, and fuel” is “a slap in the face for working people.” The statement advocates a negotiated settlement for peace, saying continuing to pour weapons into the country will “needlessly prolong the war, resulting in more civilian deaths” and that it “risks escalating and widening the war — up to and including nuclear war.”

  

  In response to this entirely reasonable and moderate position, the DSA is currently being raked over the coals with accusations of Kremlin loyalty and facilitation of murder and bloodshed by blue-checkmarked narrative managers on Twitter. This is because the only acceptable positions for anyone of significant influence to have about this war range from supporting continuing current proxy warfare operations to initiating a direct hot war between NATO and Russia.

  That’s how narrow the permissible spectrum of debate has been shrunk regarding this conflict: status quo hawkish to omnicidal hawkish. Anything outside that spectrum gets framed as radical extremism. As Noam Chomsky said: “The smart way to keep people passive and obedient is to strictly limit the spectrum of acceptable opinion, but allow very lively debate within that spectrum — even encourage the more critical and dissident views. That gives people the sense that there’s free thinking going on, while all the time the presuppositions of the system are being reinforced by the limits put on the range of the debate.”

  The DSA is once again getting viciously attacked for making the extremely controversial recommendation that the US pursue a diplomatic settlement instead of endless weapons shipments. Never ceases to be amazing that this is now considered a crazed, radical, radioactive position: https://t.co/d2YKS9C7Xx

  — Michael Tracey (@mtracey) July 13, 2022

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  This spectrum of debate has been shrunk on the one hand by imperial spinmeisters continually hammering home the message that any support for de-escalation and diplomatic solutions is “appeasement” and indicative of Russian sympathies, and on the other by hawkish pundits and politicians pushing for the most freakishly aggressive responses to this war possible. By forbidding the spectrum of acceptable debate to move toward peace while shoving it as hard as possible in the direction of warmongering extremism, imperial narrative managers have successfully created an Overton window wherein the only debate permitted is over how directly and forcefully Russia should be confronted, with calls for peace now falling far outside that window.

  Which is a problem, because both direct NATO hot war with Russia and continuing along the empire’s current course of action in Ukraine are stupid. Direct conflict between nuclear powers likely means a very fast and very radioactive third world war, and the status quo proxy warfare approach isn’t stopping Russia as more and more territory is taken in the east in cool defiance of western claims that Ukraine is bravely vanquishing its evil invaders. Biden administration officials have told the press that they doubt Ukraine will even be able to reclaim the territory it has lost already. Unless and until something significant changes, Ukraine has no apparent path to victory in this war anytime soon.

  In short, there is no exit strategy to this proxy war. There are no plans in place to deliver Putin a swift defeat, and the Biden administration remains steadfastly dismissive of even the slightest gestures toward diplomacy with Moscow. Boris Johnson has reportedly been buzzing around admonishing Ukraine’s President Zelensky, France’s President Macron and who knows who else not to work toward peace in Ukraine. The doors to ending this war quickly by either winning it or negotiating a peace settlement are both bolted shut, all but guaranteeing a long and bloody slog.

  Which as it turns out suits Washington just fine. Biden administration officials have stated that the goal is to use the Ukraine war to “weaken” Russia, and the US already has an established pattern of working to draw Moscow into costly military quagmires as we saw in both Afghanistan and Syria. Continuing to pour weapons and military intelligence into Ukraine while working to cut Russia off from the world stands no chance of ending the war in a timely manner, but it does stand a pretty good chance of bleeding and weakening Moscow.

  And since this is the course of action that has been taken by the empire, we can only assume that this is its desired outcome: not victory, not peace, but a long and gruelling war.

  Confirms that Ukrainian Pravda story from a couple of months ago. Angloid political elites don’t want this war to end until they’re satisfied enough Russians are killed to kneecap Russia as a rival—no matter how many dead Ukrainians it takes to do so.https://t.co/alKLzwy7DF

  — Mark Ames (@MarkAmesExiled) June 27, 2022

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  One of the major recurring criticisms of the Iraq invasion was that Bush rushed into it without an exit strategy, without a plan for ending the war once it had been started. This proxy war with Russia not only lacks a strategy for ending the war, it apparently only has strategies for not ending the war. No exit strategy is the strategy.

  Whenever you point out the insanity of this approach you’ll get useful idiots of the empire objecting that by criticizing US proxy warfare and supporting a negotiated settlement you are guilty of “appeasement” and exactly the same as Neville Chamberlain, because the only argument empire apologists ever have is to compare every US-targeted government to Nazi Germany.

  According to these propaganda-addled empire automatons, having the story of not compromising with Putin-Hitler and not committing the sin of “appeasement” is worth sacrificing everyone in the entire nation of Ukraine for. They will happily throw every Ukrainian life into the gears of this war while they sit safe at home eating Funyuns and tweeting, just so they can have that “we didn’t compromise with Putin” story hanging on their mental mantlepiece.

  How many more lives are such people prepared to feed into an unwinnable war which the west knowingly provoked? How many more of other people’s children are they prepared to sacrifice? How long does the bloodshed need to drag on before their “no appeasement” story loses value to them? How long until people wake up from their propaganda-induced comas and realize we’ve been manipulated into supporting a proxy war which benefits ordinary people in no real way, and in fact impoverishes us and threatens our very lives?

  There is no morally consistent argument for continuing this proxy war in the way it has been going. If you actually value life and peace, the only way out is through negotiation and compromise. I point this out not because I believe it will happen, but to hopefully help a few more people open their eyes to the fact that we are being deceived.

  *  *  *

  My work is entirely reader-supported, so if you enjoyed this piece please consider sharing it around, following me on Facebook, Twitter, Soundcloud or YouTube, or throwing some money into my tip jar on Ko-fi, Patreon or Paypal. If you want to read more you can buy my books. The best way to make sure you see the stuff I publish is to subscribe to the mailing list for at my website or on Substack, which will get you an email notification for everything I publish. Everyone, racist platforms excluded, has my permission to republish, use or translate any part of this work (or anything else I’ve written) in any way they like free of charge. For more info on who I am, where I stand, and what I’m trying to do with this platform, click here. All works co-authored with my American husband Tim Foley.

  Bitcoin donations:1Ac7PCQXoQoLA9Sh8fhAgiU3PHA2EX5Zm2

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 07/16/2022 – 15:30

• Carson Block Says The Stress Of Being A Short-Seller Forced Him To Give A Presentation In Adult Diapers Once
  Carson Block Says The Stress Of Being A Short-Seller Forced Him To Give A Presentation In Adult Diapers Once

  It’s bad enough short sellers have had to fight the Fed. Now, with the Department of Justice prying into their affairs, the stress level of the job has risen dramatically – and there’s no better example of literally how much of a pain in the ass the job is than a story well known short seller Carson Block shared with Bloomberg last week.

  Block opened up to Bloomberg, questioning whether or not it is worth continuing professionally as a short seller, in a new interview. The fund manager also shared a graphic story to try and make a point of just how stressful life as a short seller can sometimes be. 

  The story dates back to 2018, when Block was short shares of TAL Education group and was planning on giving a presentation on the name. While flying to his destination, details about his presentation may have leaked, because another player in the market other than Muddy Waters appeared to be taking a short position in the name.

  Fearing he would get carried out in an ensuing mega-squeeze, Block called off the presentation and told his firm to unwind the trade. But the damage was already done: Block said the stress of the incident literally tore him apart…

  “The stock’s rocketing, I’m just physically ill, I want to vomit, and I’ve got a million things racing through my mind,” he told Bloomberg. To make matters worse, when his flight touched down, he says “he felt a hemorrhoid burst”.

  

  After getting off the plane, Block “bought a sweatshirt from an airport gift shop to cover the stain” on his pants, and “bought a box of Depends”. He then switched the topic of his speech to Chinese accounting, which he gave while wearing adult diapers. 

  For his trouble as a short seller, DOJ prosecutors and the Securities and Exchange Commission are “examining whether short sellers are improperly teaming up to attack public companies” in a wide ranging probe that has been ongoing since last year. 

  “There’s a gun pointed at us, and it’s really uncomfortable,” Block said. “Anytime somebody points a gun at you, there’s a non-zero chance something goes wrong even if that’s not their original
  intention.”

  Block told Bloomberg he’s confident that his firm hasn’t done anything illegal, and also said that whoever tried to front-run him on the day of the incident also had done anything illegal. But the trouble seems to be enough to make him rethink the industry he’s in. 

  Short selling was once a world where market outsiders could say what they wanted to, he commented: “Most of us were in some way outsiders for a long f—ing time. It’s really hard for us to hold our tongues and not make people feel uncomfortable.” 

  But he “questioned whether it’s worth the trouble anymore,” during his interview, Bloomberg wrote – even though short sellers often help make fraud cases for regulators: “The guys who’ve been making cases for years based on our s—, if they think we’re a f—-ing problem, there’s no end.”

   

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 07/16/2022 – 15:00

• Celsius Bites The Dust: The Biggest Crypto News For The Second Week Of July
  Celsius Bites The Dust: The Biggest Crypto News For The Second Week Of July

  By Donovan Choy of Bankless

  Welcome to the weekly recap of the biggest crypto news for the second week of July.

  Celsius files bankruptcy

  I’ve used a centralized crypto lender (AKA crypto bank). The argument for these financial services is pretty straightforward and it goes a little something like this:

  “DeFi UX is bad. People don’t want to store 24-word-long seed phrases on paper. Want your Mom to use DeFi? Then be pragmatic about it. Crypto banks will onboard millions of new users into the world of crypto. That’s how crypto goes mainstream!” – Really pragmatic crypto expert in his first crypto bull market

  The problem of course, is that crypto banks don’t actually exist in the world of crypto, but in a nicely furnished entry lounge, or when markets are down – in the exit parking lot. Centralized crypto lenders are in the business of peddling DeFi products, but its foundational building blocks aren’t on blockchain infrastructure. 

  In other words, a crypto bank’s promise of yields is fundamentally an off-chain, unverified claim that users have to take on faith. You’re missing the point of Web3.

  And these off-chain delights have off-chain ends.

  After Voyager and 3AC, Celsius is the third to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection this week. A court filing this week shows Celsius’ liabilities of $5.5B, of which 85% ($4.7B) is owed to users.

  But not before closing the entirety of its ~$800M debt across Compound, Aave, Maker and other dapps to release its collateralized loans. We don’t know if users will get back their money from Celsius, and if so how much, but lawyers and courts (not smart contracts) will decide. You can argue in a court of law, but not in the smart contract world of DeFi.

  Su Zhu helps StarkWare launch its token

  This one here’s a bit of a merry-go-round. It begins with longstanding rumors of a StarkWare token for its Layer-2 platform StarkNet.

  As seen from the past month’s chaos, we know that 3AC had a slice of everything crypto-related, and that includes a share of the StarkWare token allocation set aside for investors.

  But 3AC is now in the gutter, and allyourassetsarebelongtoliquidators, including that share.

  Apparently, the liquidators failed to “exercise StarkWare’s token purchase offer” before a 5th July deadline and “has caused the Company to lose substantial value”. You know, similar to how 3AC lost substantial value of its clients holdings. In any case, that’s what it took to break Zhu’s five week Twitter silence, and he isn’t happy.

  Sadly, our good faith to cooperate with the Liquidators was met with baiting. Hope that they did exercise good faith wrt the StarkWare token warrants. pic.twitter.com/CF73xI8r6n

  — Zhu Su 🔺 (@zhusu) July 12, 2022

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  StarkWare’s surprise is ruined but the candles are still lit. What are they to do? I guess, sing the song and blow it out, but in a way which very blatantly does not acknowledge the elephant in the room.

  #StarkNet Alpha was launched on Ethereum Mainnet in November 2021.
  ✨
  Now it’s time to advance its decentralization as demanded of an L2 on Ethereum.
  ✨
  Here’s our decentralization proposal, introducing the StarkNet Token, and the StarkNet Foundationhttps://t.co/zk33gANsin pic.twitter.com/YTd0Uj5NbW

  — StarkWare (@StarkWareLtd) July 13, 2022

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  The StarkNet token will be used for governance, staking and the network’s transaction fees (in contrast to other L2s like Optimism where ETH is still used for gas). 10 billion tokens have been minted off-chain and will go live in September. Here’s what the split looks like:

  

  Some observations:

  • A 49.9% allocation to insiders is pretty hefty (Optimism’s was 36%).
  • The tokens are minted off-chain, which makes it hard for potential tokenholders to discern the value of the token and how much whales control.
  • In terms of a potential airdrop, only 9% (900M) under Community Provisions might go towards it (Community Rebates don’t count). The StarkWare community isn’t happy (see here, here and here) with what seems to be perceived as a largely centralized token distribution for insiders and a paltry airdrop for the community.

  Is ETH a security?

  Michael Saylor thinks so:

  “I think Ethereum is a security, I think it’s pretty obvious, […] it was issued by an ICO, theres a management team, there was a pre-mine, there’s a hard fork, there’s continual hard forks, there’s a difficulty bomb that keeps getting pushed back.”

  If Saylor’s right, that has dramatic regulatory implications for ETH. Traditionally, U.S. law determines a security through the Howey Test, which qualifies something as a security if there’s an “investment of money in a common enterprise with a reasonable expectation of profits to be derived from the efforts of others”.

  The Ethereum foundation has gone to great lengths to distinguish ETH not as a securities offering and a profit-oriented stock, but as a kind of commodity good, a resource fuel (gas) to run applications on its blockchain, and that has set the de-facto standard for how ICOs are perceived by investors and regulators. As Camila Russo chronicles in The Infinite Machine:

  The framing… that ether was a product with a specific functionality, opened the door for a whole new way of raising money. Now startups would be able to get funding from anyone who wanted to contribute, all over the world, under what seemed like a safe haven. They weren’t selling securities. These weren’t shares in any company. They didn’t give out dividends that depended on the company’s revenue and investors didn’t have any rights. They were selling digital tokens, made to be used inside these platforms. They were selling utility tokens.

  Bitcoiners’ attempt to frame proof-of-stake networks as securities fixate on the more active “managerial” aspect of the network, so it lends easily to a “profit motive” then a “securities” conclusion. But of course, Bitcoin itself undergoes substantial network development, most notably the SegWit upgrade in 2017 and more recently Taproot last year.

  So is ETH a capital asset (security), a consumable commodity (gas), or a store-value-value like gold/Bitcoin? Bankless has argued that it’s all three. But it’s frankly an endless debate of semantics.

  

  Web3 News Roundup

  Polygon week

  Big week for Polygon.

  First, Polygon has been selected as one of six companies to participate in a Disney Accelerator program that represents the media conglomerate’s efforts to break into the Web3 world of NFTs. In the official press release:

  “The Disney Accelerator kicks off this week, connecting the 2022 class with the creativity, imagination, and expertise of Disney. Over the course of the program, each participant company will receive guidance from Disney’s senior leadership team, as well as a dedicated executive mentor.”

  Polygon is the only Layer-2 platform selected, and MATIC has jumped ~27% since the announcement.

  🚨Interrupting the #GreenBlockchainSummit for some breaking news!

  We’re excited to be the only blockchain chosen to be a part of the Disney Accelerator program. 🎉👇 https://t.co/LaGU4bhidi

  — Polygon – MATIC 💚 (@0xPolygon) July 13, 2022

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  Second, support for MATIC deposits and withdrawals are now live on Robinhood.

  $MATIC ERC-20 deposit/withdrawal support is now available on Robinhood.

  All eligible @RobinhoodApp users who signed up for the WebWallets waitlist are now able to send and receive any of the cryptocurrencies currently available on the app.

  🌐: https://t.co/r8QFWrn9fP pic.twitter.com/xlVCTWOnMk

  — Polygon – MATIC 💚 (@0xPolygon) July 7, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Third, Aave’s decentralized social media Lenstube is launching, on top of – you guessed it – the Polygon mainnet. Check it out.

  gm frens 📢

  Lenstube, an open-source web3 video-sharing 🎥 social media platform built on top of @LensProtocol 🌿 is now live on @0xPolygon mainnet 🎉

  Try now https://t.co/mwYvoda2CX

  Zero gas fees ⛽️ thanks to lens relayers.

  — Lenstube (🎥 , 🌿) (@lenstubexyz) July 11, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Launch of NFT marketplaces

  More hot launches this week. sudoAMM by sudoswap is a new on-chain NFT marketplace that lets users automate their NFT transactions along a price curve in a liquidity pool.

  Announcing the public release of sudoAMM!

  sudoAMM is a new marketplace protocol that changes the way we think about NFT liquidity and trading.

  It is highly flexible, gas-efficient, and fully on-chain. pic.twitter.com/NBK4UI6fQI

  — sudoswap (@sudoswap) July 8, 2022

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  GameStop NFT is another non-custodial NFT marketplace built on the Ethereum L2 Loopring.

  gm Ξveryone!

  GameStop NFT is live in beta! A non-custodial, Ethereum-L2 marketplace where the community can truly own the digital assets they love 👾https://t.co/oqv5eOdXTC

  Incredibly grateful for the GameStop team & community for making this a reality 😍 #PowerToThePlayers https://t.co/5McGtTGFD9

  — Matt FinΞstonΞ | 3body.eth (@finestonematt) July 12, 2022

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  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 07/16/2022 – 14:30

• "We Are Not Slaves": Farmers In Italy, Spain, & Poland Join Dutch Protests
  “We Are Not Slaves”: Farmers In Italy, Spain, & Poland Join Dutch Protests

  Farmers in Italy, Spain and Poland have joined Dutch farmers in protest of ‘green’ government regulations that will decimate the industry by forcing them to reduce their use of nitrogen fertilizer compounds.

  “We are not slaves, we are farmers,” said Italian farmers, who drove tractors through the streets of Milan and blocked city traffic.

  Italian farmers hit Milan with the message: “We are not slaves, we are farmers!”

  Still the media turn a blind eye. pic.twitter.com/Yt3C9qeY6A

  — Tony (@mrtdogg_) July 15, 2022

   According to the Morning Star, “Italian farmers face an imminent crisis due to a severe drought that has seen a third of agricultural produce placed at risk.”

  The country’s agricultural minister Steafano Patuanelli told parliament earlier this week that Italy faces a further 40 per cent loss of water resources in the coming decades.

  Farmers say they have lost around €3 billion as a result of the emergency and are being hit hard by rising fuel prices with costs rocketing as a result of the conflict in Ukraine.

  Italian farmers rise up in Milan and block city traffic: “We are not slaves, we are farmers!” pic.twitter.com/g89CmXYV4A

  — RadioGenova (@RadioGenova) July 15, 2022

  In Spain, farmers in Badajoz, Granada and Albacete paraded their tractors down the street in solidarity with the foreign farmers, as well as national protests at home over a lack of food and gasoline, according to EuroWeekly News.

  📢Agricultores Españoles en Badajoz, Granada, Albacete… Manifestándose para proteger su modo de vida y la independencia alimentaria de España (también te afecta a tí)
  🤔Esperando los especiales de TV…
  #DefundEU#TheGreatResetpic.twitter.com/aHf6yOUzWB

  — Free ☣ (@FredTheReez) July 15, 2022

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  And in Poland, farmers came to Warsaw last weekend to protest against inflation and other government actions.

  #BREAKING #POLAND

  🔴POLAND :#VIDEO MASSIVE PROTESTS OF POLISH FARMERS IN WARSAW!

  They protested against the government’s politics destabilizing production by raising interest rates, which does not stop inflation#Flash #Warsaw #Varsovia #Protests #Protesta #Farmers #Inflation pic.twitter.com/sNLGF5c6Ml

  — loveworld (@LoveWorld_Peopl) July 8, 2022

  The protests have led to empty supermarket shelves in the Netherlands, as tractors and other agricultural machinery have blocked warehouses, preventing their shipment – a move which Prime Minister Mark Rutte has mobilized state police against in an attempted crackdown.

  In short:

  My thoughts while bailing silage ,Farmers of World unite .#FarmingMatters pic.twitter.com/MUKm0tEGt6

  — Gareth Wyn Jones (@1GarethWynJones) July 7, 2022

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  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 07/16/2022 – 14:00