- Escobar: The Neocons Want War With China
Escobar: The Neocons Want War With China
It was a photo op for the ages: a visibly well-disposed President Xi Jinping receiving centenarian “old friend of China” Henry Kissinger in Beijing.
Mirroring meticulous Chinese attention to protocol, they met at Villa 5 of the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse – exactly where Kissinger first met in person with Zhou Enlai in 1971, preparing Nixon’s 1972 visit to China.
The Mr. Kissinger Goes to Beijing saga was an “unofficial”, individual attempt to try to mend increasingly fractious Sino-American relations. He was not representing the current American administration.
There’s the rub.
Everyone involved in geopolitics is aware of the legendary Kissinger formulation: To be the US’s enemy is dangerous, to be the US’s friend is fatal. History abounds in examples, from Japan and South Korea to Germany, France and Ukraine.
As quite a few Chinese scholars privately argued, if reason is to be upheld, and “respecting the wisdom of this 100-years-old diplomat”, Xi and the Politburo should maintain the China-US relation as it is: “icy”.
After all, they reason, being the US’s enemy is dangerous but manageable for a Sovereign Civilizational State like China. So Beijing should keep “the honorable and less perilous status” of being a US enemy.
The World Through Washington’s Eyes
What’s really going on in the back rooms of the current American administration was not reflected by Kissinger’s high-profile peace initiative, but by an extremely combative Edward Luttwak.
Luttwak, 80, may not be as visibly influential as Kissinger, but as a behind the scenes strategist he’s been advising the Pentagon across the spectrum for over five decades. His book on Byzantine Empire strategy, for instance, heavily drawing on top Italian and British sources, is a classic.
Luttwak, a master of deception, reveals precious nuggets in terms of contextualizing current Washington moves. That starts with his assertion that the US – represented by the Biden combo – is itching to do a deal with Russia.
That explains why CIA head William Burns, actually a capable diplomat, called his counterpart, SVR head Sergey Naryshkin (Russian Foreign Intelligence) to sort of straighten things up “because you have something else to worry about which is more unlimited”.
What’s “unlimited”, depicted by Luttwak in a Spenglerian sweep, is Xi Jinping’s drive to “get ready for war”. And if there’s a war, Luttwak claims that “of course” China would lose. That dovetails with the supreme delusion of Straussian neocon psychos across the Beltway.
Luttwak seems not to have understood China’s drive for food self-sufficiency: he qualifies it as a threat. Same for Xi using a “very dangerous” concept, the “rejuvenation of the Chinese people”: that’s “Mussolini stuff”, says Luttwak. “There has to be a war to rejuvenate China”.
The “rejuvenation” concept – actually better translated as “revival” – has been resonating in China circles at least since the overthrow of the Qing dynasty in 1911. It was not coined by Xi. Chinese scholars point out that if you see US troops arriving in Taiwan as “advisors”, you would probably make preparations to fight too.
But Luttwak is on a mission: “This is not America, Europe, Ukraine, Russia. This is about ‘the sole dictator’. There is no China. There is only Xi Jinping,” he insisted.
And Luttwak confirms the EU’s Josep “Garden vs. Jungle” Borrell and European Commission dominatrix Ursula von der Leyen fully support his vision.
Luttwak, in just a few words, actually gives away the whole game: “The Russian Federation, as it is, is not strong enough to contain China as much as we would wish”.
Hence the turn around by the Biden combo to “freeze” the conflict in the Donbass and change the subject. After all, “if that [China] is the threat, you don’t want Russia to fall apart,” Luttwak reasons.
So much for Kissingerian “diplomacy.”
Let’s Declare a “Moral Victory” and Run Away
On Russia, the Kissinger vs. Luttwak confrontation reveals crucial cracks as the Empire faces an existential conflict it never did in the recent past.
The gradual, massive U-turn is already in progress – or at least the semblance of a U turn. US mainstream media will be entirely behind the U turn. And the naïve masses will follow. Luttwak is already voicing their deepest agenda: the real war is on China, and China “will lose”.
At least some non-neocon players around the Biden combo – like Burns – seem to have understood the Empire’s massive strategic blunder of publicly committing to a Forever War, hybrid and otherwise, against Russia on behalf of Kiev.
This would mean, in principle, that Washington can’t just walk away like it did in Vietnam and Afghanistan. Yet Hegemons do enjoy the privilege to walk away: after all they exercise sovereignty, not their vassals. European vassals will be left to rot. Imagine those Baltic chihuahuas declaring war on Russia-China all by themselves.
The off-ramp confirmed by Luttwak implies Washington declaring some sort of “moral victory” in Ukraine – which is already controlled by BlackRock anyway – and then moving the guns towards China.
Yet even that won’t be a cakewalk, because China and the about-to-expand BRICS+ are already attacking the Empire at its foundation: dollar hegemony. Without it, the US itself will have to fund the war on China.
Chinese scholars, off the record, and exercising their millennia-old analytical sweep, observe this may be the last blunder the Empire ever made in its short history.
As one of them summarized it, “the empire has blundered itself to an existential war and, therefore, the last war of the empire. When the end comes, the empire will lie as usual and declare victory, but everyone else will know the truth, especially the vassals.”
And that brings us to former national security adviser Zbigniew “Grand Chessboard” Brzezinski’s 180-degree turn shortly before he died, aligning him today with Kissinger, not Luttwak.
“The Grand Chessboard”, published in 1997, before the 9/11 era, argued that the US should rule over any peer competitor rising in Eurasia. Brzezinski did not live to see the living incarnation of his ultimate nightmare: a Russia-China strategic partnership. But already seven years ago – two years after Maidan in Kiev – at least he understood it was imperative to “realign the global power architecture”.
Destroying the “Rules-Based International Order”
The crucial difference today, compared to seven years ago, is that the US is incapable, per Brzezinski, to “take the lead in realigning the global power architecture in such a way that the violence (…) can be contained without destroying the global order.”
It’s the Russia-China strategic partnership that is taking the lead – followed by the Global Majority – to contain and ultimately destroy the hegemonic “rules-based international order”.
As the indispensable Michael Hudson has summarized it, the ultimate question at this incandescent juncture is “whether economic gains and efficiency will determine world trade, patterns and investment, or whether the post-industrial US/NATO economies will choose to end up looking like the rapidly depopulating and de-industrializing post-Soviet Ukraine and Baltic states or England.”
So is the wet dream of a war on China going to change these geopolitical and geoeconomics imperatives? Give us a -Thucydides – break.
The real war is already on – but certainly not one identified by Kissinger, Brzezinski and much less Luttwak and assorted US neocons.
Michael Hudson, once again, summarized it: when it comes to the economy, the US and EU “strategic error of self-isolation from the rest of the world is so massive, so total, that its effects are the equivalent of a world war.”
Tyler Durden
Sat, 07/22/2023 – 23:30 - Understanding The Global Supply Of Water
Understanding The Global Supply Of Water
As the world’s population and its agricultural needs have grown, so too has the demand for water, putting the world’s supply of water under the microscope.
A century ago, freshwater consumption was six times lower than in modern times. This increase in demand and usage has resulted in rising stress on freshwater resources and further depletion of reservoirs.
Visual Capitalist’s Freny Fernandez introduces this graphic by Chesca Kirkland – using insights from Our World in Data – to break down water supply and also withdrawals per capita. The latter measures the quantity of water taken from both groundwater and freshwater sources for agricultural, industrial, or domestic use.
How Much Water Do We Have?
Many people know that more than 70% of the Earth’s surface is water. That’s 326 million trillion gallons of water, yet humanity still faces a tight supply. Why is that?
It’s because 97% of this water is saline and unfit for consumption. Of the remaining 3% of freshwater, about two-thirds are locked away in the form of snow, glaciers, and polar ice caps. Meanwhile, just under a third of freshwater is found in fast-depleting groundwater resources.
That leaves just 1% of global freshwater as “easily” sourced supply from rainfall as well as freshwater reservoirs including rivers and lakes.
Per Capita Water Withdrawals
Any look at a world map of rivers and lakes will reveal that fresh water distribution is highly uneven across different regions of the world.
Yet developed and developing countries alike require a lot of water for both commercial and personal use. Agriculture use alone accounts for an estimated 70% of the world’s available freshwater.
Below we can see how water withdrawals per capita have grown over the past decades, using the latest available data from each.
Many of the countries with the largest water withdrawals per capita are located in the arid deserts of Central Asia, including top-ranked Turkmenistan at 5,753 cubic meters of annual water withdrawals per person in 2005.
And for developing countries with high water usage, from Turkmenistan to Guyana, most of their water withdrawals are for agriculture. For example, an estimated 95% of available water in Turkmenistan goes towards agriculture.
Developed nations like Finland, New Zealand and the U.S. also withdraw tons of water, at more than 1,000 cubic meters annually per person, but their uses are notably different. In the United States, for example, 41% of water withdrawals in 2015 went to thermoelectric power generation, while 37% went towards irrigation and livestock. For Finland, on the other hand, 80% of water was used for industrial production.
Most of the countries with lower water withdrawals per capita, meanwhile, are concentrated in Africa. They include very populated countries, such as Nigeria and Kenya, which both withdrew around 75 cubic meters of water per person in 2015 and 2010 respectively. This also highlights the continent’s water accessibility and infrastructure issues.
Bridging the Water Inequity Gap
Over the years, various initiatives have emerged to mitigate the world’s water inequality gap.
Efforts include promoting water conservation practices, investing in efficient irrigation systems, and enhancing water infrastructure in regions most affected by scarcity.
Some nations in arid climates with coastal access, such as Saudi Arabia, are also converting ocean salt water to fresh water through desalination plants.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 07/22/2023 – 23:00 - US Military Confirms Myocarditis Spike After COVID Vaccine Introduction
US Military Confirms Myocarditis Spike After COVID Vaccine Introduction
Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Cases of myocarditis soared among U.S. service members in 2021 after the COVID-19 vaccines were rolled out, a top Pentagon official has confirmed.
A U.S. service member prepares to get a COVID-19 vaccine at Fort Knox, Ky., on Sept. 9, 2021. (Jon Cherry/Getty Images) There were 275 cases of myocarditis in 2021—a 151 percent spike from the annual average from 2016 to 2020, according to Gilbert Cisneros Jr., undersecretary of defense for personnel and readiness, who confirmed data revealed by a whistleblower earlier this year.
The COVID-19 vaccines can cause myocarditis, a form of heart inflammation that can lead to mortality, including sudden death. COVID-19 also can cause myocarditis.
The diagnosis data comes from the Defense Medical Epidemiology Database.
Mr. Cisneros provided the rate of cases per 100,000 person-years, a way to measure risk across a certain period of time. In 2021, the rate was 69.8 among those with prior infection, compared to 21.7 among members who had been vaccinated.
“This suggests that it was more likely to be [COVID-19] infection and not COVID-19 vaccination that was the cause,” Mr. Cisneros said.
No figures were given for members who had been vaccinated but were also infected. The total rate, 20.6, also indicates that some members weren’t included in the subgroup analysis.
Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), who has been investigating problems with the database, questioned how the military came up with the figures.
“It is unclear whether or how it accounted for service members who had a prior COVID-19 infection and received a COVID-19 vaccination,” Mr. Johnson wrote to Mr. Cisneros.
Department of Defense (DOD) officials didn’t respond to a request for comment.
Mr. Johnson asked for the information no later than Aug. 2.
Dr. Peter McCullough, a cardiologist and president of the McCullough Foundation, looked at the newly disclosed data.
“The large increase in myocarditis cases in our military in 2021 was most likely due to ill-advised COVID-19 vaccination,” he told The Epoch Times via email, pointing to a study from Israel that found no increase or myocarditis in COVID-19 patients.
Some other papers have found COVID-19 vaccines increase the risk of myocarditis. COVID-19 has been linked elsewhere to myocarditis, although the vaccines have never prevented infection and have become increasingly ineffective against it.
The military encouraged COVID-19 vaccination after U.S. regulators cleared the vaccines for use in late 2020. Military officials were among the first in the world to raise concerns about myocarditis after vaccination and published an early case series of 22 previously healthy members who suffered myocarditis within four days of receiving a COVID-19 vaccine. U.S. officials have since said the vaccines definitely cause myocarditis.
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin mandated the vaccines in 2021, a requirement that remained in place until Congress forced its withdrawal.
U.S. Marines in Kin, Japan, in a file image. (Carl Court/Getty Images) Repeated Changes
Military officials have struggled to provide accurate data on 2021 diagnoses.
Whistleblowers revealed in 2021 that myocarditis, as reflected in the Defense Medical Epidemiology Database (DMED), had soared to 2,868 percent higher than the average from 2016 to 2020. They downloaded the data in August 2021.
The number of 2021 myocarditis diagnoses, though, had plummeted from 1,239 to 263 when the data was downloaded later, prompting concerns of manipulation.
Military officials said they reviewed the data and found it was “faulty.” They said the data for the years 2016 to 2020 were “corrupted” during a “database maintenance process,” which resulted in the display of only 10 percent of the actual medical encounters for that time period.
Officials told Mr. Johnson in 2022 that the problem had been fixed. The fix significantly changed the records. Instead of a 2,181 percent increase in hypertension in 2021, for instance, the increase was just 1.9 percent. Female infertility, instead of increasing 472 percent, increased 13.2 percent.
The updated percentages, though, were called into question when another whistleblower looked at the database in 2023 and found they were different.
Testicular cancer, initially pegged as increasing 369 percent, was placed at 3 percent by the military. But the actual increase was 16.3 percent, the whistleblower found. Pulmonary embolism was among the other conditions that occurred more often in 2021 than the military had conveyed.
The whistleblower alerted Mr. Johnson, the top Republican on the Senate Subcommittee on Investigations, who asked military officials for answers.
Mr. Cisneros acknowledged that the data given to the senator was incomplete. He said the change stemmed from December 2021 figures not being available when the corrected data was offered. There was a data “lag by about three months,” meaning the data wasn’t available in February 2022, when officials provided Mr. Johnson with the corrected data, Mr. Cisneros said.
Pentagon officials replicated the analyses from the whistleblower and found the data “are similar” to the data the whistleblower sent to Mr. Johnson, Mr. Cisneros said.
Military officials hadn’t previously mentioned any data lag previously while communicating with Mr. Johnson or the public, and they didn’t incorporate the available data when they sent him another missive in mid-2022.
“Without the whistleblower’s disclosure, I doubt DOD would have ever acknowledged that it provided incomplete information to my office in February 2022 and again in July 2022,” Mr. Johnson said.
He said the DOD had demonstrated “a complete disregard for transparency” and urged officials to make clear whether it has investigated whether any of the medical conditions for which diagnoses spiked are associated with the vaccines.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 07/22/2023 – 22:30 - Here's How Much The Most-Followed Instagram Accounts Earn On Posts
Here’s How Much The Most-Followed Instagram Accounts Earn On Posts
Instagram is not only one of the biggest social media platforms, it’s also one of the most profitable for high profile creators.
Despite having fewer users than platforms like Facebook and YouTube, Instagram’s higher engagement rate gives it one of the highest advertising costs. In 2023, average ad prices on Instagram were estimated at $3.56 cost per click, ahead of every platform except LinkedIn.
For the celebrities with the most followers on Instagram, and the brands trying to profit from their followers, that translates into million-dollar costs for some sponsored posts. Visual Capitalist’s Pallavi Rao and Pablo Alvarez has visualized Instagram’s biggest accounts, and their estimated earnings per sponsored post, using HopperHQ data from September 2022.
Calculating The Earnings Per Sponsored Post
It’s easy to assume that the most followed Instagram accounts make the most money on sponsored posts, but that appears to be only partially true.
In conducting research for the dataset, HopperHQ utilized both publicly available data and reports and privately researched statistics to measure the impact of different factors:
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Number of followers
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Levels of engagement (legitimate views, likes & comments)
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Influencer’s category (sports, music, acting, etc.)
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Audience makeup
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Influencer status (previous endorsements, number of endorsements, etc.)
And though the number of followers was the biggest influencing factor, some stars earned more from followers than others.
Costs of the Most Followed Instagram Accounts in 2022
The most followed person on Facebook and Instagram, soccer star Cristiano Ronaldo leads the list of the most expensive Instagram accounts in 2022 for sponsored content.
It’s estimated that the former Manchester United and Real Madrid star was able to charge an estimated $2.4 million per sponsored post in 2022. With 442 million followers at the time of calculation, Ronaldo was estimated to charge nearly half a million dollars per post more than the next person on the list.
Name Category Followers Earnings Per Post Cristiano Ronaldo Sport 442,267,575 $2,397,000 Kylie Jenner Celebrity 338,626,294 $1,835,000 Lionel Messi Sport 327,954,875 $1,777,000 Selena Gomez Celebrity 320,082,515 $1,735,000 Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson Celebrity 315,999,932 $1,713,000 Kim Kardashian Celebrity 311,685,198 $1,689,000 Ariana Grande Celebrity 311,302,908 $1,687,000 Beyoncé Knowles-Carter Celebrity 256,957,282 $1,393,000 Khloé Kardashian Celebrity 243,609,638 $1,320,000 Kendall Jenner Celebrity 237,977,121 $1,290,000 Justin Bieber Celebrity 236,391,845 $1,281,000 Taylor Swift Celebrity 210,659,702 $1,142,000 Jennifer Lopez Celebrity 208,469,193 $1,130,000 Virat Kohli Sport 200,703,169 $1,088,000 Nicki Minaj Celebrity 190,264,361 $1,031,000 Kourtney Kardashian Celebrity 177,874,659 $964,000 Neymar da Silva Santos Junior Sport 174,248,989 $945,000 Miley Cyrus Celebrity 171,147,090 $928,000 Katy Perry Celebrity 163,620,880 $1,029,000 Kevin Hart Celebrity 143,895,754 $780,000 Kylie Jenner, the world’s “youngest self-made billionaire” according to Forbes, was second with earnings of $1.8 million per sponsored post on Instagram. Jenner, a member of the Kardashian–Jenner family with five of the top 20 most followed Instagram accounts, is also the youngest person among this cohort of big earners on Instagram.
But the most commonly followed celebrities in the top 20 were musicians with household names, including Ariana Grande, Beyoncé, and Taylor Swift. They accounted for 45% of the most followed accounts.
The Biggest Earners per Follower
Though almost all of the most followed accounts were estimated to cost more than those with lower follower counts, Katy Perry (Rank: 16th) stands out.
Perry was estimated to better utilize Instagram’s reach and earn more in total than #17-19, despite tens of millions fewer followers. In fact, she was calculated to earn more per follower than all of the top 20.
Rank Name Earnings per Follower 1 Katy Perry $0.0062889 2 Neymar da Silva Santos Junior $0.0054233 3 Miley Cyrus $0.0054222 4 Beyoncé Knowles-Carter $0.0054211 5 Taylor Swift $0.0054211 6 Virat Kohli $0.0054209 7 Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson $0.0054209 8 Kendall Jenner $0.0054207 9 Kevin Hart $0.0054206 10 Selena Gomez $0.0054205 11 Jennifer Lopez $0.0054205 12 Cristiano Ronaldo $0.0054198 13 Kourtney Kardashian $0.0054195 14 Ariana Grande $0.0054192 15 Justin Bieber $0.005419 16 Kylie Jenner $0.005419 17 Kim Kardashian $0.0054189 18 Nicki Minaj $0.0054188 19 Khloé Kardashian $0.0054185 20 Lionel Messi $0.0054184 The earnings per follower round up to just under a cent each, but tens of millions of followers make a sizable impact. In addition to Perry, Neymar (Rank: 18th) and Miley Cyrus (Rank: 19th) had the highest earnings-per-follower, ahead of accounts with hundreds of millions more followers.
But a new year can bring a lot of changes. The most followed Instagram accounts have already been reshuffled, with Lionel Messi now the second-most followed and Selena Gomez overtaking Kylie Jenner as the most-followed woman. How will potential earnings be impacted this year?
Tyler Durden
Sat, 07/22/2023 – 22:00 -
- Newsom's Plan To Fine School District $1.5 Million Over Blocked Textbook Lacks Legal Grounds
Newsom’s Plan To Fine School District $1.5 Million Over Blocked Textbook Lacks Legal Grounds
Authored by Micaela Ricaforte via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
California Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks during a news conference after meeting with students at James Denman Middle School in San Francisco on Oct. 1, 2021. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images) There are currently no legal grounds for California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s decision to fine a local school district $1.5 million for rejecting what the school board says is an “inappropriate” social studies textbook, the state’s top education official confirmed July 20.
The governor announced the fine in a July 19 statement, adding that the state is securing the textbook in question for all 1–5 grade students in the Temecula Valley Unified Valley School District.
State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond said the anticipated passing of Assembly Bill 1078—a proposal that would prohibit local school boards from excluding books that contain LGBT and other minority groups—would allow the state to intervene in Temecula’s situation. The bill contains an urgency clause for it to take effect immediately should it pass the Legislature, Mr. Thurmond said.
“Assembly Bill 1078 would establish this process and that bill is being heard in the legislature and it does have an urgency clause, so we’re waiting to see what happens with that bill,” Mr. Thurmond told The Epoch Times at an unrelated press conference in Chino, California, July 20. “We’re currently investigating the Temecula Valley Unified School District based on complaints from students about … LGBTQ+ student needs.”
California State Superintendent of Schools Tony Thurmond holds a gender-affirming book during a news conference at Nystrom Elementary School in Richmond, Calif., on May 17, 2022. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images) The bill will be heard in the state Senate Appropriations Committee after the lawmakers meet again in August after the summer recess.
Former state Sen. Melissa Melendez (R-Riverside) was among the first to question the legality of Mr. Newsom’s plan.
“It appears the governor is trying to create the authority to insert himself into [the district’s] business by leaning on the anticipated passing of [Assembly Bill 1078], which is still going through the legislative process,” Ms. Melendez told The Epoch Times before Mr. Thurmond’s response. “Aside from that, no one has explained who will determine compliance, and the governor’s office has yet to cite the legal authority that would give him justification to buy books a district doesn’t want, and then charge them for those books.”
Some also claim the governor lacks the authority to impose such consequences.
“The governor does not cite any legal authority for distributing the books to Temecula Valley … students or to allow the state to do so in place of the district,” said the California School Board Association in a statement posted on Twitter, adding that the current law requires the county superintendent to request the state provide textbooks if they are unable to provide such on their own.
Parents in support of the Temecula Valley Unified school board’s decision to terminate the district’s superintendent amid controversy surrounding critical race theory and other school curricula attend a board meeting in Temecula, Calif., on June 13, 2023. (Micaela Ricaforte/The Epoch Times) In response to Mr. Newsom’s announcement, Temecula Unified board president Joseph Komrosky will call a special meeting for July 21 to consider other options for curriculums that meet state standards.
“Despite our continuing work and commitment to core values, Governor Newsom has taken unilateral action to intervene in the middle of our work without even contacting the school district first to understand what the school district may be further doing to meet all of the curriculum needs of our students,” Mr. Komrosky told The Epoch Times in an emailed statement. “What he calls inaction we see as responsible considerations for all of our community’s viewpoints as we come to a final decision and with time left to do so.”
The board president called Newsom’s announcement fiscally irresponsible.
“We do not appreciate Governor Newsom’s effort to usurp local control and all that will apparently result from these tactics is a waste of the taxpayers’ money,” he said. “We sincerely hope he has a 14-day return policy with the publisher of the books he just purchased.”
Mr. Newsom’s announcement comes one day after the school district doubled down on its rejection of a social studies curriculum that the board’s president deemed “inappropriate” due to its inclusion of an adult LGBT activist who reportedly had a sexual relationship with a minor.
The district has spent the year searching for an updated social studies curriculum as its current social studies curriculum, adopted in 2006, does not comply with updated state educational frameworks or California’s 2011 Fair Education Act, which requires schools to include historical LGBT and minority figures in social studies.
Read more here…
Tyler Durden
Sat, 07/22/2023 – 21:30 - The World's Top 15 Economies Through Time (1980-2075)
The World’s Top 15 Economies Through Time (1980-2075)
According to a recent report from Goldman Sachs, the balance of global economic power is projected to shift dramatically in the coming decades.
In the graphic below, Visual Capitalist’s Marcus Lu has created a bump chart that provides a historical and predictive overview of the world’s top 15 economies at several milestones: 1980, 2000, 2022, and Goldman Sachs projections for 2050 and 2075.
Projections and Highlights for 2050
The following table shows the projected top economies in the world for 2050. All figures represent real GDP projections, based on 2021 USD.
A major theme of the past several decades has been China and India’s incredible growth. For instance, between 2000 and 2022, India jumped eight spots to become the fifth largest economy, surpassing the UK and France.
By 2050, Goldman Sachs believes that the weight of global GDP will shift even more towards Asia. While this is partly due to Asia outperforming previous forecasts, it is also due to BRICS nations underperforming.
Notably, Indonesia will become the fourth biggest economy by 2050, surpassing Brazil and Russia as the largest emerging market. Indonesia is the world’s largest archipelagic state, and currently has the fourth largest population at 277 million.
The Top Economies in the World in 2075
The following table includes the underlying numbers for 2075. Once again, figures represent real GDP projections, based on 2021 USD.
Projecting further to 2075 reveals a drastically different world order, with Nigeria, Pakistan, and Egypt breaking into the top 10. A major consideration in these estimates is rapid population growth, which should result in a massive labor force across all three nations.
Meanwhile, European economies will continue to slip further down the rankings. Germany, which was once the world’s third largest economy, will sit at ninth behind Brazil.
It should also be noted that China, India, and the U.S. are expected to have similar GDPs by this time, suggesting somewhat equal economic power. As a result, how these nations choose to engage with one another is likely to shape the global landscape in ways that have far-reaching implications.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 07/22/2023 – 21:00 - Lockheed Martin Predicts Strong Profits As Global Instability Rises
Lockheed Martin Predicts Strong Profits As Global Instability Rises
Authored by Kyle Anzalone via The Libertarian Institute,
Lockheed Martin believes global instability is driving demand and sees an increase in annual profits. Washington’s proxy war in Ukraine has caused an increase in arms spending among NATO members, boosting weapons makers’ stock prices.
On Tuesday, Lockheed raised its annual profit and sales outlook on strong demand for military equipment. After making the announcement, the company’s stock price increased by one percent.
Image via McLaren Automotive/Forbes Reuters reports, “[Lockheed] expects full-year net sales to be between $66.25 billion and $66.75 billion, up from its earlier forecast of $65 billion to $66 billion.”
The billions in profit are driven by sales of big-ticket systems like the F-35. However, Lockheed has struggled to produce F-35s that can perform its promised abilities.
In May, the government found the planes’ engines have a serious problem dealing with heat:
“The F-35’s engine lacks the ability to properly manage the heat generated by the aircraft’s systems,” POGO reported. “That increases the engine’s wear, and auditors now estimate the extra maintenance will add $38 billion to the program’s life-cycle costs.”
The arms maker has additionally experienced a boost in demand for smaller systems, like the Javelin anti-tank missile. The White House has shipped thousands of Javelin systems to Kiev since Joe Biden took office.
As well as predicting future success, Lockheed announced it beat expectations regarding quarterly sales. According to Reuters, “Quarterly net sales rose 8.1% to $16.69 billion, beating expectations of $15.92 billion.”
Last year, Ian Bond, director of foreign policy at the Centre for European Reform, described the surge in the market for weapons as the highest since the Cold War. “This is certainly the biggest increase in defense spending in Europe since the end of the Cold War,” he said.
Ukraine war doing wonders for Lockheed. Weekly share price in a strong uptrend https://t.co/Jw0E0WtapJ pic.twitter.com/VyPJIbUfex
— tradinglikeafox (@tradinglikeafox) July 18, 2023
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
Prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Lockheed’s stock price traded below $340 a share, the price increased to over $450 within a few months. On Thursday, Lockheed’s stock was valued at $456 per sale.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 07/22/2023 – 20:30 - Biden Administration Rule Would Ban Nearly All Portable Gas-Powered Generators
Biden Administration Rule Would Ban Nearly All Portable Gas-Powered Generators
Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
After seeking to reduce the use of gas stoves, the Biden administration is pushing a proposal to ban the sale of almost all portable gas generators—which some experts have said would be disastrous for the millions of Americans who rely on such generators during power outages.
Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm briefs reporters at the White House on May 11, 2021. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images) The U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) has proposed a policy (pdf) that would remove nearly all existing portable gas generators from the market. The new rule restricts the amount of carbon monoxide that generators can emit by forcing these generators to switch off when they reach a certain level of emissions.
Smaller gas generators would have to cut carbon monoxide emissions by 50 percent, and larger generators would have to cut emissions by up to 95 percent. Nearly all models currently available are expected to not be in compliance with the new standard.
Once the proposed rules come into effect, manufacturers would have to comply with them in just six months, a process that usually takes several years. The rules would also ban manufacturers from stockpiling noncompliant generators before the new standards are enacted.
Generator Manufacturers Speak Out
In a June 28 press release, Susan Orenga, executive director of the Portable Generator Manufacturers’ Association, pointed out that CPSC’s proposal will “create a shortage of essential portable generators during regional and national emergencies because it will prevent the sale of portable generators that are currently available on the market.”
“Furthermore, the timing of the CPSC’s proposed changes are particularly concerning, given repeated warnings that two-thirds of North America is currently facing an energy shortfall this summer during periods of high demand,” she said.
Workers help residents at Home Depot, where they are buying generator equipment and other supplies on Aug. 29, 2019, as they prepare for Hurricane Dorian. (Michele Eve Sandberg/AFP via Getty Images) Nearly 5 million households across the United States use gas powered generators during power outages, and they are particularly important during hurricane season, when powerful storms often knock out electric utilities.
In May, the North American Electric Reliability Corp. warned that two-thirds of North America could face blackouts and brownouts between June and September if there are “wide area” heat waves, wildfires, and droughts, and the agency attributed some blame for the problem to the Biden administration’s push for renewable energy.
The CPSC proposal came after the Department of Energy unveiled its Energy Policy and Conservation Program in February, which aims to establish new standards on consumer cooking products, including gas stoves. The rules are expected to ban the sale of at least half of U.S. stove models.
The Department of Energy is also focusing efforts on mandating standards for dishwashers.
In a bid to improve efficiency and cut energy usage, the agency has proposed new regulations for power and water usage for standard-size and compact dishwashers during their regular cycles.
“This Administration is using all of the tools at our disposal to save Americans money while promoting innovations that will reduce carbon pollution and combat the climate crisis,” Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm said in a statement about the regulations.
Read more here…
Tyler Durden
Sat, 07/22/2023 – 19:30 - "Summer Of Strikes": 650,000 American Workers Threaten To Walk Off Job
“Summer Of Strikes”: 650,000 American Workers Threaten To Walk Off Job
Tensions between employees and employers are heating up this summer. Bloomberg reports 650,000 workers threaten to walk off the job and picket in the streets to secure improved benefits, wages, and other conditions amid the worst inflation storm in a generation.
So why is 2023 shaping up to be one of the biggest years of strikes in the US since the 1970s? Well, it didn’t happen overnight. Two years of negative real wage growth has crushed the working poor as they drained their savings and maxed out credit cards to make ends meet.
Unionized workers have taken advantage of upcoming contract expirations with companies to bargain for better wages and benefits. Many unions say companies can boost wages because profits have been off the charts.
This summer might go down in history as the “Summer of Strikes” because 650,000 American workers are threatening to walk off the job imminently (some have already hit the picket lines):
- The combined actors and writers strikes in Hollywood are already a once-in-a-generation event.
- Unions for United Parcel Service Inc. and Detroit’s Big Three automakers are poised to join them in coming weeks if contract negotiations fall through.
A Bank of America analyst warned a United Auto Workers strike is at 90% odds of happening as union contracts with automakers Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis expire in September. Some logistics experts believe Teamsters will reach a deal with UPS, but that deadline (July 31) is quickly approaching.
Labor historian Nelson Lichtenstein, who leads the University of California, Santa Barbara’s Center for the Study of Work, Labor, and Democracy, said this summer could “be the biggest moment of striking, really, since the 1970s.”
What’s shaping up to be a summer of strikes comes as inflation spiked to levels not seen since the 1970s. The good news is that it has cooled in recent quarters.
Still, two years of negative real wage growth crushed the working poor — many are in rough financial shape.
So far, strikes have not had a broad economic impact, but that could change overnight. Increasing labor actions are happening across the Western world, also in Europe, for the same reason in the US, due to a cost-of-living crisis sparked by high inflation.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 07/22/2023 – 19:00 - Yellow Loses Attempt To Stop Strike
Yellow Loses Attempt To Stop Strike
By Todd Maiden of Freightwaves
The U.S. District Court for the District of Kansas ruled Friday against less-than-truckload carrier Yellow Corp.’s request for an injunction, which would have kept its Teamsters employees from engaging in a work stoppage.
In her decision, Senior Judge Julie Robinson denied a motion for a temporary restraining order and injunction.
The decision allows the union to carry through with a planned strike, which could begin as soon as Monday. The final straw prompting the strike was Yellow’s missed benefits contribution payment to Central States Funds last week, which will leave workers without health insurance on Sunday.
The two parties have been embroiled in a bitter dispute over operational changes for the last nine months. The carrier has maintained that without the changes it wouldn’t survive while the union took the stance that it had given enough in the past in the form of wages, benefits and work rules concessions.
“The company has two more days to fulfill its obligations or we will strike,” Teamsters General President Sean O’Brien said following the decision. “Teamsters at Yellow are furious and ready to act. They are done with the mistreatment and mismanagement.”
In its filing seeking an injunction, Yellow said it would likely file for bankruptcy if the court didn’t rule in its favor.
“Absent injunctive relief, Plaintiffs will suffer immediate, substantial, and irreparable harm from Defendants’ unlawful work stoppage, including being forced into a Chapter 7 liquidation bankruptcy proceeding.”
In a news release late Friday, Yellow said it would appeal the court’s decision and continue to pursue its breach of contract lawsuit against the Teamsters.
“The court, recognizing a strike would likely kill the company, resulting in the loss of 30,000 jobs, cautioned the Union — that while it won today’s battle, it could very well lose the war,” the statement said.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 07/22/2023 – 18:30 - Oakland Fails Women As Staggering Crime Surge Goes Unpunished
Oakland Fails Women As Staggering Crime Surge Goes Unpunished
Oakland, California has been a cesspool of crime for decades – however a recent report reveals just how much worse things have gotten in the last year alone.
Compared to last year, robberies have surged 22%, while overall crime has risen by a staggering 42% in the first half of 2023.
Seven women told the San Francisco chronicle their harrowing tales of violent attacks which have been ignored by the police.
A woman walked briskly, through a busy shopping corridor and past a columbarium in North Oakland, heading toward her car. Dusk was gathering.
She crossed the street to a tree-lined block of Ramona Avenue, the vehicle now within arm’s reach.
From behind, the woman recalled in an interview, she heard footsteps. She turned around. Inches away stood a figure in a ski mask, pointing a knife at her stomach. He lunged, grabbed her car’s key fob and clicked it to open the driver’s-side door. The woman frantically fought back.
Residents heard screams and emerged from their homes just as the attacker punched the woman’s shoulder and shoved her to the ground. He ripped two canvas bags from her arms, one with a laptop, the other filled with personal items. Crouched on the ground, dazed, she tried to call 911, but said she got disconnected.
The incident, shortly after 6:30 p.m. on Feb. 15, came in a year that has seen a significant increase in robberies in Oakland, with 1,880 reports as of July 16 — up 22% from the same period last year. –SF Chronicle
Violent attacks on women in particular have increased – with recent data showing a higher level of violence towards female robbery victims, as assailants target individuals who are distracted by cell phones.
Oakland Police have admitted that robberies are generally crimes of opportunity in which women are often perceived as easier targets.
Law enforcement officials, who have been accused of ignoring the problem, say they are overburdened and unable to provide women the support they need, and have pointed to a controversial statement by Oakland Department of Violence Prevention Chief Kentrell Killens, which seemed to sympathize with young robbery suspects rather than victims.
“These are our babies, these are our children,” said Killens, referring to criminals. “They deserve a chance to get things together. They deserve a chance to have the level of support to help them turn things around.“
Women in Oakland have since come together to form an online community to apply pressure on city officials to take action. While their initial efforts eventually led to a response, the group revealed that there are only six investigators handling hundreds of reported incidents, building a case, and actually moving forward with them.
Several victims told the outlet that their attackers remain at large due to insufficient evidence or surveillance footage which can’t be made out.
In short, Oakland is failing its residents – particularly its most vulnerable.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 07/22/2023 – 18:00 - Kennedy Schools Dems On Free Speech; "Shut Up!!!" They Explained…
Kennedy Schools Dems On Free Speech; “Shut Up!!!” They Explained…
Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via DailyReckoning.com,
It was a strange experience watching the House hearing in which Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was testifying.
The topic was censorship and how and to what extent federal government agencies under two administrations muscled social media companies to take down posts, ban users and throttle content. The majority made its case.
What was strange was the minority reaction throughout.
They tried to shut down RFK. They moved to go to executive session so that the public could not hear the proceedings. The effort failed. Then they shouted over his words when they were questioning him.
They wildly smeared him and defamed him. They even began with an attempt to block him from speaking at all, and eight Democrats voted to support that.
This was a hearing on censorship and they were trying to censor him. Just think about that for a second.
It only made the point.
It’s in the First Amendment for a Reason
It became so awful that RFK was compelled to give a short tutorial on the importance of free speech as an essential right, without which all other rights and freedoms are in jeopardy. Even those words he could barely speak given the rancor in the room.
It’s fair to say that free speech, even as a core principle, is in grave trouble. We cannot even get a consensus on the basics.
It seemed to viewers that RFK was the adult in the room. Put other ways, he was the preacher of fidelity in the brothel, the keeper of memory in a room full of amnesiacs, the practitioner of sanity in the sanatorium, or, as H.L. Mencken might have said, the hurler of a dead cat into the temple.
It was oddly strange to hear the voice of wise statesmen in that hothouse culture of infantile corruption: It reminded the public just how far things have fallen. Notably, it was he and not the people who wanted him gagged who was citing scientific papers.
The protests against his statements were shrill and shocking. They moved quickly from “Censorship didn’t happen” to “It was necessary and wonderful” to “We need more of it.”
Reporting on the spectacle, The New York Times said these are “thorny questions”:
“Is misinformation protected by the First Amendment? When is it appropriate for the federal government to seek to tamp down the spread of falsehoods?”
These are not thorny questions.
The real issue concerns who is to be the arbiter of truth?
Attacks on Free Speech Aren’t New
Such attacks on free speech do have precedent in American history. The Alien and Sedition Acts of 1798 led to a complete political upheaval that swept Thomas Jefferson into the White House. There were two additional bouts of censorship folly in the 20th century. Both followed great wars and an explosion in government size and reach.
The first came with the Red Scare (1917-1920) following the Great War (WWI). The Bolshevik Revolution and political instability in Europe led to a wild bout of political paranoia in the U.S. that the communists, anarchists and labor movement were plotting a takeover of the U.S. government. The result was an imposition of censorship along with strict laws concerning political loyalty.
The Espionage Act of 1917 was one result. It is still in force and being deployed today, most recently against former President Trump. Many states passed censorship laws. The feds deported many people suspected of sedition and treason. Suspected communists were hauled in front of Congress and grilled.
The second bout occurred after the Second World War with the House Un-American Activities Committee (HUAC) and the Army-McCarthy hearings that led to blacklists and media smears of every sort.
The result was a chilling of free speech across American industry that hit media particularly hard. That incident later became legendary due to the exaggerations and disregard for the First Amendment.
COVID Put U.S. on War Footing
How does the COVID-era censorship fit into this historical context? I’ve compared the wild COVID response to a wartime footing that caused as much trauma on the homeland as previous world wars.
Three years of research, documents and reporting have established that the lockdowns and all that followed were not directed by public health authorities. They were the veneer for the national security state, which took charge in the month of February 2020 and deployed the full takeover of both government and society in mid-March.
This is one reason that it’s been so difficult getting information on how and why all of this happened to us: It’s been mostly classified under the guise of national security.
In other words, this was war and the nation was ruled for a time (and maybe still is) by what amounts to quasi-martial law. Indeed, it felt like that. No one knew for sure who was in charge and who was making all these wild decisions for our lives and work.
It was never clear what the penalties would be for noncompliance. The rules and edicts seemed arbitrary, having no real connection to the goal; indeed no one really knew what the goal was besides more and more control.
There was no real exit strategy or endgame.
“Shut up!” They Explained
As with the two previous bouts of censorship in the last century, there commenced a closure of public debate. It began almost immediately as the lockdowns edict were issued. They tightened over the months and years.
Elites sought to plug every leak in the official narrative through every means possible. They invaded every space. Those they could not get to (like Parler) were simply unplugged. Amazon rejected books. YouTube deleted millions of posts. Twitter was brutal, while once-friendly Facebook became the enforcer of regime propaganda.
The hunt for dissenters took strange forms. Those who held gatherings were shamed. People who did not socially distance were called disease spreaders. Walking outside without a mask one day, a man shouted out to me in anger that “masks are socially recommended.”
I kept turning that phrase around in my mind because it made no sense. The mask, no matter how obviously ineffective, was imposed as a tactic of humiliation and an exclusionary measure that targeted the incredulous. It was also a symbol: stop talking because your voice does not matter. Your speech will be muffled.
The vaccine of course came next: deployed as a tool to purge the military, public sector, academia, and the corporate world. The moment the New York Times reported that vaccine uptake was lower in states that supported Trump, the Biden administration had its talking points and agenda. The shot would be deployed to purge.
Indeed, five cities briefly segregated themselves to exclude the unvaccinated from public spaces. The continued spread of the virus itself was blamed on the noncompliant.
Those who decried the trajectory could hardly find a voice much less assemble a social network. The idea was to make us all feel isolated even if we might have been the overwhelming majority.
We just couldn’t tell either way.
War and Censorship Go Hand in Hand
War and censorship go together because it is wartime that allows ruling elites to declare that ideas alone are dangerous to the goal of defeating the enemy. “Loose lips sink ships” is a clever phrase but it applies across the board in wartime.
The goal is always to whip up the public in a frenzy of hate against the foreign enemy (“The Kaiser!”) and ferret out the rebels, the traitors, the subversives, and promoters of unrest. There is a reason that the protestors on January 6 were called “insurrectionists.” It is because it happened in wartime.
The war, however, was of domestic origin and targeted at Americans themselves. That’s why the precedent of 20th century censorship holds in this case. The war on Covid was in many ways an action of the national security state, something akin to a military operation prompted and administered by intelligence services in close cooperation with the administrative state.
And they want to make the protocols that governed us over these years permanent. Already, European governments are issuing stay-at-home recommendations for the heat.
If you had told me that this was the essence of what was happening in 2020 or 2021, I would have rolled my eyes in disbelief. But all evidence I’ve gathered since then has shown exactly that. In this case, the censorship was a predictable part of the mix.
The Red Scare mutated a century later to become the virus scare in which the real pathogen they tried to kill was your willingness to think for yourself.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 07/22/2023 – 17:30 - Iconic Park Avenue Wine Store Sherry-Lehmann Raided By FBI
Iconic Park Avenue Wine Store Sherry-Lehmann Raided By FBI
Iconic wine retailer Sherry-Lehmann was raided by the FBI last week as part of an ongoing criminal investigation by the Justice Department.
The 89 year old retailer’s store on Park Avenue was searched by authorities last week as part of an ongoing investigation stemming from “lawsuits from customers for alleged failure to deliver prepaid wine” as well as nearly $3 million in unpaid taxes, Bloomberg reported.
The company had stated in January that it “expects the delayed wines to be bought and delivered in 2023.” But it appears those ambitions may be too little, too late at this point.
The store received a cease-and-desist order from regulators, forcing it to shut down, the report says. The order was for selling liquor without a license. On Tuesday of last week FBI investigators were seen outside the Park Avenue location.
The New York Times had previously reported that witnesses were asked to show up to a federal grand jury last month.
The store has been browsed and visited by a host of celebrities, Bloomberg noted, including Andy Warhol, Greta Garbo, Mick Jagger and Harrison Ford. The store was known for carrying an luxurious selection and is was referred to as making the decision of which brands the city’s “elite” drank.
The owners also ran a business that allowed people to rent space and store the expensive bottles they had purchased. The New York Times has reported that employees of the company believed it improperly sold stored bottles to other customers.
The FBI confirmed that officers were carrying out “an enforcement action”, while owners Shyda Gilmer and Kris Green didn’t return comment to Bloomberg.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 07/22/2023 – 17:00 - Concerns Raised Over Number Of Students Identifying As LGBT
Concerns Raised Over Number Of Students Identifying As LGBT
Authored by Doug Lett via The Epoch Times,
The head of the group Unified Grassroots in Saskatchewan is raising concerns about gender ideology in the classroom.
Nadine Ness said she has been contacted by several parents who are worried about the percentage of students in some classrooms who are identifying as LGBT.
In one case, she said, a father told her that in his 13-year-old son’s class, 13 out of 30 young people identify as LGBT.
She was also notified of a principal in a different school telling a parent that some 32 percent of Grade 7 and 8 students are identifying as LGBT.
Her concern is that the percentages seem very high.
“I think it sends a clear message that something is happening in the classroom that is leading kids to go that route of either identifying or being confused about gender,” she told The Epoch Times.
“That 32 percent is not what’s reflected in society.”
“It just confirms what I’m hearing from parents across the province,” she added. “It’s not every classroom. It seems that they all have a few things in common where the children will have been exposed to teachers or people within the school system that are constantly pushing that ideology.”
She went on to say that it is probably normal that some children would identify—but not the percentages she is being told.
“I’m sure there’s some of them that do identify, but that many kids are getting confused—we have to ask ourselves, is this what’s in the best interest of the children that are going into these schools?”
Ms. Ness said she has been told some of the numbers come from a survey within the Saskatchewan school system, but said she has not been able to find out much about it.
“And if it’s province wide, I wanted the public to start demanding accountability from the government … I have yet to be able to get a copy of it to know what questions are asked and I actually had some teachers reach out to me, and they told me they don’t even get to see the questions … They’re putting these kids in front of a computer screen to answer the survey, and no teacher gets to actually see what questions are asked.”
The Epoch Times contacted the Saskatchewan Ministry of Education for more information about the survey, but did not get a response by deadline.
For Ms. Ness, the issue is why the percentage of young people identifying is so high.
“I hope it triggers studies and for the Ministry of Education to look into this,” she said.
“Is it just confusion? Is it indoctrination? Or is this really just where we’re going as a society?” she asked.
“Is this natural or not natural?”
Unified Grassroots is a non-profit organization that was started by parents in 2021 over concerns about the effect of COVID-19 policies on children. Ms. Ness said they have thousands of members and followers provincewide.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 07/22/2023 – 16:30 - N.Korea Launches More Cruise Missiles In 'Warning' Over US Nuclear-Armed Sub
N.Korea Launches More Cruise Missiles In ‘Warning’ Over US Nuclear-Armed Sub
This week has witnessed what is arguably the most intense rhetoric exchanged between Washington and Pyongyang in years, given it centers on back-and-forth nuclear threats, yet major Western media networks have given it scant attention in terms of feature coverage.
In the latest incident, North Korea on Saturday fired multiple cruise missiles to the west of the Korean Peninsula, according to South Korean military statements, which appear part of the Kim Jong Un government’s continuing protest over a US nuclear-armed submarine docking at a South Korean port.
From a prior cruise missile launch, via KCNA It marks at least the second missile launch and “warning” from Pyongyang this week. “North Korea fired several cruise missiles into the Yellow Sea on Saturday,” the Joint Chiefs of Staff [SK JCS] said.
“South Korean and US intelligence authorities were analyzing the launches, which took place at about 4:00 a.m., to learn more about the type of missiles fired and other details, according to the JCS.” The JCS statement added: “Our military has bolstered surveillance and vigilance while closely cooperating with the United States and maintaining a firm readiness posture.”
As we highlighted this week, the Ohio-Class USS Kentucky docked in the South Korean port of Busan on Tuesday, marking the first time since 1981 that an American nuclear-armed submarine arrived in the country. It also marked the first time since the US withdrew its tactical nukes from South Korea in 1991 that US nuclear weapons were deployed to the Korean Peninsula.
Immediately on the heels of the nuclear-armed sub’s arrival, Pyongyang unleashed accusations of nuclear escalation aimed at Seoul and Washington….
North Korean Defense Minister Kang Sun-nam slammed the US and South Korean cooperation on nuclear weapons in a press statement released by North Korea’s Korean Central News Agency.
Kang said US and South Korean officials held the NCG meeting “to discuss the plan for using nuclear weapons against the DPRK [Democratic People’s Republic of Korea].”
Nothing says denuclearization like sending nukes
— Dave DeCamp (@DecampDave) July 22, 2023
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
Discussing North Korea’s nuclear policy, Kang said, “I remind the US military of the fact that the ever-increasing visibility of the deployment of the strategic nuclear submarine and other strategic assets may fall under the conditions of the use of nuclear weapons specified in the DPRK law on the nuclear force policy.”
He said that Pyongyang’s nuclear doctrine “allows the execution of necessary action procedures in case a nuclear attack is launched against it or it is judged that the use of nuclear weapons against it is imminent.”
After US officials held the NCG meeting, they released a statement that said any nuclear attack from the North will “will result in the end of that regime.”
Tyler Durden
Sat, 07/22/2023 – 16:00 - EVs For All? If The Dream Was Met, Would It Help The Environment?
EVs For All? If The Dream Was Met, Would It Help The Environment?
Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,
Even if you are 100% convinced in man-made climate change, the idea the EV’s will help reduce CO2 emissions is nonsense…
The Impossible Dream
Hello climate change advocates, please open your minds and consider the Manhattan Institute report Electric Vehicles for Everyone? The Impossible Dream by Mark P. Mills, a Manhattan Institute senior fellow.
A dozen U.S. states, from California to New York, have joined dozens of countries, from Ireland to Spain, with plans to ban the sale of new cars with an internal combustion engine (ICE), many prohibitions taking effect within a decade. Meanwhile, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), in a feat of regulatory legerdemain, has proposed tailpipe emissions rules that would effectively force automakers to shift to producing mainly electric vehicles (EVs) by 2032.
To ensure compliance with ICE prohibitions and soften the economic impacts, policymakers are deploying lavish subsidies for manufacturers and consumers. Enthusiasts claim that EVs already have achieved economic and operational parity, if not superiority, with automobiles and trucks fueled by petroleum, so the bans and subsidies merely accelerate what they believe is an inevitable transition.
It is certainly true that EVs are practical and appealing for many drivers. Even without subsidies or mandates, millions more will be purchased by consumers, if mainly by wealthy ones. But the facts reveal a fatal flaw in the core motives for the prohibitions and mandates.
Executive Summary Key Points
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No one knows how much, if at all, CO2 emissions will decline as EV use rises. Every claim for EVs reducing emissions is a rough estimate or an outright guess based on averages, approximations, or aspirations. The variables and uncertainties in emissions from energy-intensive mining and processing of minerals used to make EV batteries are a big wild card in the emissions calculus. Those emissions substantially offset reductions from avoiding gasoline and, as the demand for battery minerals explodes, the net reductions will shrink, may vanish, and could even lead to a net increase in emissions. Similar emissions uncertainties are associated with producing the power for EV charging stations.
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No one knows when or whether EVs will reach economic parity with the cars that most people drive. An EV’s higher price is dominated by the costs of the critical materials that are needed to build it and is thus dependent on guesses about the future of mining and minerals industries, which are mainly in foreign countries. The facts also show that, for the majority of drivers, there’s no visibility for when, if ever, EVs will reach parity in cost and fueling convenience, regardless of subsidies.
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Ultimately, if implemented, bans on conventionally powered vehicles will lead to draconian impediments to affordable and convenient driving and a massive misallocation of capital in the world’s $4 trillion automotive industry.
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Rarely has a government, at least the U.S. government, banned specific products or behaviors that are so widely used or undertaken. Indeed, there have been only two comparably far-reaching bans in U.S. history: the Eighteenth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, which prohibited the consumption of alcohol (repealed by the Twenty-First Amendment); and the 1974 law prohibiting driving faster than 55 mph. Neither achieved its goals; both were widely flouted, and the first one engendered unintended consequences, not least of which was criminal behavior.
EV Emissions: Unclear, and Maybe Unknowable
In contrast to cars with internal combustion engines, it’s impossible to measure an EV’s CO2 emissions. While, self-evidently, there are no emissions while driving an EV, emissions occur elsewhere—before the first mile is ever driven and when the vehicle is parked to refuel.
The CO2 emissions directly associated with EVs begin with all the upstream industrial processes needed to acquire materials and fabricate the battery. The received wisdom that EVs will have a “huge impact” on reducing emissions is, whether the claimants know it or not, anchored in assumptions about the quantities and varieties of materials mined, processed, and refined to make the battery.
The scale of those upstream emissions emerges from the fact that a typical EV battery weighs about 1,000 pounds and replaces a fuel tank holding about 80 pounds of gasoline. That half-ton battery is made from a wide range of minerals, including copper, nickel, aluminum, graphite, cobalt, manganese, and, of course, lithium.
As researchers at the U.S. Argonne National Labs have pointed out, the relevant emissions data on such materials “remain meager to nonexistent, forcing researchers to resort to engineering calculations or approximations.” The fundamental fact to keep in mind: every claim for EVs reducing emissions is a rough estimate or an outright guess based on averages, approximations, or aspirations.
The critical factor for estimating upstream EV emissions starts with knowing the energy used to access and fabricate battery materials, all of which are more energy-intensive (and more expensive) than the iron and steel that make up 85% of the weight of a conventional vehicle.[36] The energy used to produce a pound of copper, nickel, and aluminum, for example, is two to three times greater than steel. Estimates of the aggregate energy cost to fabricate an EV battery vary threefold but, for context, on average, the energy equivalent of about 300 gallons of oil is used to fabricate a quantity of batteries capable of storing the energy contained in a single gallon of gasoline.
That so much upstream energy is necessarily used is understandable if one knows that hundreds of thousands of pounds of rock and materials are mined, moved, and processed to create the intermediate and final refined minerals to fabricate a single thousand-pound battery.
While there are dozens of variations, a typical EV battery weighs about 1,000 pounds and contains about 30 pounds of lithium, 60 pounds of cobalt, 130 pounds of nickel, 190 pounds of graphite, 90 pounds of copper,[a] and about 400 pounds of steel, aluminum, and various plastic components.
Sources of “Hidden” Energy to Mine and Process 500,000 Pounds per EV Battery
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Lithium brines contain @ ~0.14% lithium, so that entails ~20,000 pounds of brines to yield 30 pounds of pure lithium.
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Cobalt @ ~0.1% ore grades means ~60,000 pounds of ore dug up per battery
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Nickel @ ~1.3% grade, means ~10,000 pounds of ore
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Graphite @ ~10% leads to 2,000 pounds of ore
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Copper @ ~0.6% yields about 12,000 pounds of ore
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These five elements total ~100,000 pounds of ore to fabricate one EV battery. To properly account for all the earth moved, there’s also the overburden, the materials first dug up to get to the ore; depending on ore type and location, it averages three to seven tons of overburden removed to access each ton of ore, thus ~500,000 pounds total.
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The energy used to obtain a pound of metal depends on the mineral ore grades, the size and nature of a mine, the distances that materials are transported, and the nature of the grids and fuels used at specific mines. For copper, that number can vary at least twofold and for nickel by threefold. Getting accurate information is complicated by the fact that 80%–90% of relevant minerals are mined outside the U.S. and EU.
Known Unknowns
Location and Other Known Unknowns
Location: A battery plant in Norway, where dams provide about 90% of electricity, adds very little to upstream emissions from mineral processing and assembly, while a lot is added for the same plant in China, where coal supplies two-thirds of grid power. Notably, half the world’s EVs in 2022 were built in China, and China is rapidly entering global markets, selling EVs across the world.
Chemistry: There are about a dozen variations in lithium chemistry. While these entail different ratios and types of some minerals, the overall quantity of materials, and thus mining, needed per battery remains roughly the same. The exception is with lower energy-density chemistries. For example, the lithium-iron-phosphate (LPO) chemistry, popular in China and with some automakers because it doesn’t use cobalt or nickel, has a 20% lower energy density. That translates into either a 20% lower driving range or building a bigger, heavier battery requiring more copper, aluminum, polymers, and lithium.
Electronics: An EV uses about 200% more electronics for power management. Silicon device fabrication is extremely energy-intensive (about 100x more, pound-for-pound, than steel), but, as one analysis put it, energy-use “data for electronics production still needs to become better.” The data available suggest that the uncounted CO2 emissions embodied in each EV’s power electronics roughly equal those from driving an ICE car 3,000 miles.
Life Span: Most analysts assume that a battery pack will last the EV’s lifetime, but life spans depend on how consumers charge the battery—fast or overnight. As one study put it, using “intensive,” i.e., on-road fast charging, rather than “light” overnight charging, typically cuts a battery’s life in half. Modeling the emissions from an EV fleet requires estimating what share of owners will need two batteries per car life span.
Fuel Efficiency: When EV emissions are presented as a percentage reduction over an ICE car, one assumes a fuel mileage for the latter. But realistic forecasts would incorporate future trends in combustion engine efficiency. An analysis of engine technology progress finds 30%–50% fuel efficiency gains will be on offer by 2030 and thus an equal reduction in CO2 emissions per mile. Using the performance of a future ICE for comparison with a future EV further closes any gap in estimated emissions savings
Recycling: Recycling will be irrelevant for a long time, as far as mitigating upstream minerals demands. Since manufacturers claim that EV batteries will last a decade, that means that there won’t be much of anything available to begin recycling until the early 2030s. The best that IEA could come up with is recycled minerals meeting 1%–2% of battery demand by 2030.[70] As for the following decades, enthusiasts’ unrealistic dream of perfect recycling, even were it feasible, would still leave the need for an astronomical rise in overall minerals supplied.
Alleged Breakthroughs: News stories serially claim a “breakthrough” in battery technology, but there are no commercially viable alternative battery chemistries that significantly change the magnitude of the physical materials needed. To meaningfully reduce primary mineral demands would require a nearly 10-fold leap in underlying electrochemistry efficiency. Such gains aren’t even theoretically feasible. Many processes are already operating near physics limits.
Heavy Duty Use: Batteries for most heavy equipment are not up to 24×7 performance and industrial-class demands—never mind costs. And as IEA has also pointed out, over half the electricity used in industry is not grid-connected but produced on-site, and much of it with diesel-fueled generators, especially at remote and small mines.
Temperature: EV mileage is about 30% worse when it’s 20oF outside, versus 80oF, because battery electrochemical reactions are unavoidably slow at lower temperatures.[91] There’s only a 5% drop in fuel efficiency for ICE cars over the same temperature range. On top of that, as road testers and consumers know, using an EV’s heater in winter can lower kWh mileage by as much as 50%.[92] (An ICE car scavenges free waste heat.) Such temperature factors are generally ignored, not only on EV “sticker” ratings but especially so in estimating national emissions impacts from EVs. Those factors matter, since one-third of the U.S. population lives in cold northern latitudes.
Moore’s Law and the Comic Book View
Only in comic books does energy tech advance at the pace of information tech, such as in Moore’s Law.
Similarly central to the inevitability and cheaper-better claims is the assertion that EVs are inherently simpler machines and that the “old” ICE technology is maxed out, with no innovation remaining.
The reality is otherwise. Yes, conventional cars do have a complex thermo-mechanical system, with the engine and automatic transmission made from hundreds of components, mated with a very simple fuel system, a tank holding a liquid with a one-moving-part pump. EVs, inversely, have a very simple motor made from just a few parts. However, the EV fuel tank is a complex electrochemical system made from hundreds of parts, sometimes thousands, including a cooling system, sensors, and control electronics. In addition, the EV drivetrain requires roughly double the quantity of microcontrollers and power electronics.
Greater advances are still possible with ICE tech than are with electric motors or batteries. In terms of overall mineral resource requirements, a 1% improvement in combustion efficiency equals a 10% advance in battery-electric tech.
Projection vs Needs
Where Are the Minerals?
The overwhelming majority of minerals supply is located outside the U.S. and EU.“None of the raw materials required for battery-cell manufacturing are currently mined in significant quantities in Europe,” a recent German government study noted.
For energy minerals, China has double the market share that OPEC has with oil. China is busily expanding mining investments in Africa and South America and is on track to raise its share of the refined lithium market from 24% last year to 32% within two years. Other countries are following Indonesia’s new policy (the world’s top nickel producer), wherein exports of raw mineral ore are prohibited, requiring the construction of local refineries. Meanwhile, in South America, where two-thirds of the world’s low-cost lithium resources are known (and one-third of current production), there’s talk of a Lithium cartel. The effect on prices of such market concentrations are well known. Strategies to form “buyers’ clubs” among nations, recently proposed by the U.S. government in collaboration with the EU, run up against their historical failure. Monopolies, cartels, or dominant sellers invariably have more price control.
Even if the energy-minerals market were to be uniquely free of price manipulation, the basic economics of supply and demand points to dramatic price increases for batteries—as well as other products dependent on these minerals. For many minerals, EV demand is transitioning from a marginal share to the dominant use. Competition for these minerals’ supply, and inevitably price pressures, will begin to have an impact on the cost of building everything from homes and buildings to appliances and computers. Five years ago, EV markets constituted, for example, 15%, 10%, and 2% of all uses for lithium, cobalt, and nickel, respectively; last year, those shares were 60%, 30%, and 10% and rising rapidly.
Refueling Infrastructure
So far, 90% of EVs in the U.S. have been purchased as a second or third car by wealthy households with a garage. While only one-third of American households have a garage, the fueling infrastructure challenges begin in those neighborhoods for an all-EV world. If all garage owners use home chargers, it will necessitate massive upgrades to residential electric networks. Otherwise, as one study showed, “more than 95 percent of residential transformers would be overloaded,” meaning that they fail or can blow up.
“Fast” charging is still far slower than the five to 10 minutes typical for gasoline fueling. Thus, to achieve the same convenience (avoiding waits in lines, etc.), a filling station will require about four chargers to replace each gasoline pump. Quite aside from the land-use implications, this translates into at least a doubling of the overall cost to build the average filling station (counting land, buildings, and other infrastructures as well).
In addition, installing two dozen or more superchargers at a filling station creates a grid power demand comparable to a small town or a steel mill instead of a convenience-store demand level of today’s filling stations. At the same time, the higher power levels from EV chargers will radically decrease the life span of the existing power transformers on utility poles, coming at a time when costs for new transformers have inflated about fivefold.
In Europe, where there’s more experience with on-road fast charging, the cost of a fast-charge fill-up is already higher than diesel for the same distances driven. In the U.S., Consumer Reports notes that the cost to fill up with a Tesla supercharger is over triple the (usually assumed) cost of at-home overnight charging.
Refueling Math
As for a “big reset” for EV infrastructure based on the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act’s $7.5 billion in subsidies to fund “thousands” of on-road chargers: consider the math. The all-EV future will need to replace most, if not all, of America’s roughly 1 million gasoline pumps located at the existing 145,000 filling stations.
The calculus of overall societal costs for an all-EV future also requires including the dramatic expansion of power generation and long-distance transmission. Replacing all the gasoline used in America with electricity would require at least 50% more electricity generation than exists or is planned, along with an even greater increase in electric power distribution. Such power-plant and grid requirements represent multitrillion-dollar levels of spending.
An analysis from the Boston Consulting Group puts the utility grid improvement costs—never mind power generation—at $1,700–$5,800 per EV put on the market. Do the math: that’s $400 billion to over $1 trillion for an all-EV American car fleet. While those costs would be divorced from car prices, it would constitute “sticker shock” for household electricity or tax bills.
Conclusion: There’s No Such Thing as a Carbon-Free Lunch
Imagining a hypothetical all-EV world requires acknowledging the unavoidable fact of a rats’ nest of assumptions, guesses, and ambiguities regarding emissions. Much of the necessary data may never be collectible in any normal regulatory fashion, given the technical uncertainties and the variety and opacity of geographic factors, as well as the proprietary nature of many of the processes. Those uncertainties could lead to havoc if U.S. and European regulators enshrine “green disclosures” in legally binding ways, and it all will be subject to manipulation, if not fraud.
If implemented, ICE bans will lead to a massive misallocation of capital in the world’s $4 trillion personal mobility industry. It will also lead to draconian constraints on freedoms and unprecedented impediments to affordable and convenient driving. And it will have little to no impact on global CO2 emissions. In fact, the bans and EV mandates are more likely to cause a net increase in emissions.
Mish Comments
The report by Mark P. Mills is complete with over 200 footnote citations and 14 charts of which I only discussed a few.
Mills presents an excellent starting point for understanding why the Biden push for EVs and especially Biden’s timeline cannot and will not happen. More importantly, it’s not even the right goal.
Also, Biden envisions production of EVs and minerals in the US while his Green administration is hell bent on blocking every mine for environmental reasons.
The ridiculously-named Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) allocates $7.5 billion for infrastructure when a trillion dollars may be insufficient. This does not include the massive underinvest in mines, mostly powered by diesel or coal, and largely controlled by China.
Solid State Batteries and the Kiss of Death for Gas Powered Cars, Hype or Reality?
Regarding alleged battery breakthroughs, please consider Solid State Batteries and the Kiss of Death for Gas Powered Cars, Hype or Reality?
Numerous articles cite an alleged breakthrough by Toyota that will be the kiss of death for the gasoline engine. Some of us are skeptical.
Please note that Toyota is so convinced of its solid state technology that it continuing research in hybrids, fuel cells, plug-in hybrids, regular batteries, and semi-solid state batteries.
Mills stated To meaningfully reduce primary mineral demands would require a nearly 10-fold leap in underlying electrochemistry efficiency. Such gains aren’t even theoretically feasible. Many processes are already operating near physics limits.
Ford to Layoff at Least 1,000 Workers, EV Startup Lordstown Motors Dies
We have hype over batteries, production, and goals that are not remotely possible.
Meanwhile, Ford to Layoff at Least 1,000 Workers, EV Startup Lordstown Motors Dies
EV Irony of the Day
Biden and the EPA have conspired to force companies to produce more EVs, but they cannot force anyone to buy them.
Please ponder the EV Irony, Despite Huge Incentives, Supply of EVs on Dealer Lots Soars to 92 Days
Hello car manufacturers, what are you going to do with all that inventory?
By the way, According to Florida’s Department of Emergency Management (DEM), nearly 6.8 million Floridians evacuated their homes in the lead up to Hurricane Irma, “beating 2005’s Houston-area Hurricane Rita exit by millions.”
Everyone will get 300 miles then their cars will all die.
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Tyler Durden
Sat, 07/22/2023 – 15:30 -
- Google Tests AI Tool To 'Help' Journalists Write News Articles
Google Tests AI Tool To ‘Help’ Journalists Write News Articles
Google has reportedly been testing an AI-powered technology that will automate the production of news content, and probably put thousands of NPC journalists out of a job.
Known internally as “Genesis,” the new project aims to collaborate with organizations such as the New York Times, the Washington Post, and News Corp, according to the NY Times, citing three sources familiar with the matter.
The Genesis AI tool possesses the capability to assimilate vast amounts of data, including current events and intricate details, and generate comprehensive news articles, the sources revealed. This development has ignited fervent debates over the future of journalism and the role of AI technology in shaping the news landscape.
Industry insiders who witnessed Google’s Genesis pitch have voiced a sense of unease, particularly over the potential for the tool to disrupt the tireless efforts of journalists in crafting authentic, compelling, and meticulously fact-checked stories.
Google says Genesis will be a boon for journalists, however, and has framed it as more of a personal assistant that can automate certain tasks, leaving journalists with more time to conduct more in-depth reporting.
“We’re in the earliest stages of exploring ideas to potentially provide A.I.-enabled tools to help their journalists with their work. Quite simply, these tools are not intended to, and cannot, replace the essential role journalists have in reporting, creating, and fact-checking their articles. Instead, they could provide options for headlines and other writing styles,” said Google spokeswoman, Jenn Crider.
Some experts aren’t so sure, such as journalism professor Jeff Jarvis, who says that if the technology can deliver factual and reliable information, it could be a valuable resource for journalists, but that it has the potential for misuse – including the fact that certain topics require nuance and cultural understanding that might get lost in translation.
The use of AI in newsrooms has become a central issue for news organizations worldwide. Many have already embraced the technology, such as the Times, NPR and Insider, all of which have told journalists to explore potential use cases.
Google Genesis, however, adds another layer of complexity to the debate, as concerns arise over potential misinformation and its impact on the perception of traditionally written news stories.
Meanwhile, governments worldwide have intensified calls for tech companies like Google to share advertising revenue with news outlets. Google, in response, has forged partnerships with various news organizations in an attempt to address the issue.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 07/22/2023 – 15:00 - Ron DeSantis' Big Mistake
Ron DeSantis’ Big Mistake
Authored by Linda Chavez via RealClear Wire,
Ron DeSantis seems to believe that his best chance of becoming the GOP presidential nominee is to be more extreme than the guy he needs to defeat, Donald Trump. And what better issue to flex his MAGA bona fides than immigration?
Florida’s draconian new immigration restrictions, signed into law by DeSantis two months ago, are now taking effect. They will have a devastating impact on at least two of the state’s major industries: agriculture and construction.
The new law imposes tough penalties on both undocumented employees and the employers who hire them. A job applicant who presents a false Social Security number or other documentation during the hiring process will be subject to a third-degree felony and could serve five years in jail. The statute also requires employers with more than 25 workers to use the federal E-Verify system, which has a documented history of both rejecting legitimate workers and clearing those who aren’t authorized. If employers hire unauthorized workers, they could end up losing their business licenses.
Workers are apparently fleeing the state in response – and not just those who are in the country illegally. Many immigrant families have mixed status: an undocumented parent or spouse and legal immigrants or U.S. citizens in the same household. One 2017 study estimated that more than 900,000 Floridians lived in mixed-status households, and when a family member faces the risk of becoming a felon, they may decide that staying in Florida isn’t worth the risk.
The Wall Street Journal recently reported that in Miami’s booming construction industry, between 25% and 50% of local construction workers have already disappeared from job sites. The owner of a large farming and packaging company told the WSJ that he’d lost half of his employees because of the law.
Construction and agriculture depend heavily on unauthorized workers nationally and in Florida. A recent Kaiser Family Foundation analysis estimates that almost 40% of agricultural workers in the state are noncitizen immigrants (most of whom are also undocumented), as are 23% percent of its construction workers. These employees are not easily replaceable – and certainly not with American workers. Florida’s economy will take a dramatic hit because of DeSantis’ efforts to woo the MAGA base with anti-immigrant measures.
Yet DeSantis has been touting Florida’s economy as a reason Republican voters should support him. And it’s true that Florida is first in a recent ranking that measures which states were most successful in attracting talent. The governor noted in a press release about the rankings, “Florida is leading the nation in net migration and talent attraction. As other states continue to struggle at the hands of poor leadership, people and businesses are flocking to Florida.”
The governor’s statement also boasts about the 388,000 new residents added to the state between 2016-2020. What he doesn’t say is how many of those new residents were immigrants, legal and illegal. A whopping 21% of Florida’s population is foreign-born, including about 775,000 who are undocumented. Immigrants are well represented across various occupations in the state, including 32% of service occupations and 23% of management, business, and science occupations. But the state’s tough new law may end up making Florida a much less attractive state in which to work or establish a business – certainly in industries that rely on immigrant workers.
What is ironic about DeSantis’ move is that Florida’s illegal immigration problem has improved over the years, despite influxes of newcomers from Venezuela and elsewhere in Latin America. According to the Pew Research Center, which provides one of the best historical analyses of immigration trends available, there were more than 1 million undocumented people living in Florida in 2007.
DeSantis is struggling to gain support, which won’t happen if he keeps being a poor imitation of the other prominent Florida-based candidate running for president. DeSantis should be trying to convince voters that he’s been a job creator in Florida and he will do the same for the country.
Making it more difficult to hire people to do essential jobs tarnishes his credentials. He ought to be telling Republicans that we need to make it easier for people whose skills we need to come to the United States legally, and that he’ll push for necessary reform of our immigration laws when he becomes president. He understands that workforce growth means more for everyone, not just individual workers and their families but the communities in which they live and spend their money. DeSantis says the 2024 election is about the future – and he’s right. But the future is not about building walls or driving workers away but welcoming them. It’s not about protecting jobs but creating them.
Linda Chavez served in the Reagan White House and writes frequently on race, ethnicity and immigration.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 07/22/2023 – 14:30 - Cop Who Kneeled On George Floyd Appeals To US Supreme Court
Cop Who Kneeled On George Floyd Appeals To US Supreme Court
Former Minneapolis police officer Derek Chauvin, who was convicted of second-degree murder in the kneeling death of George Floyd, will petition the US Supreme Court to review his conviction after the Minnesota state Supreme Court refused to hear his appeal.
At least four of the nine justices must vote to grant a petition for it to move forward to the oral argument stage. The USSC is expected to release orders in ongoing cases on July 24, Aug. 21 and Sept. 8, meaning the Court could act on Chauvin’s new case on one of those dates – or it could wait until the new term begins in October.
Chauvin’s petition was dismissed by the state supreme court on July 18 in a one-sentence order without explanation, denying the former cop an opportunity to overturn his 22.5-year sentence. He asked the Minnesota Supreme Court to take up the case in May after the state Court of Appeals rejected his claim that he received an unfair trial the month before.
Mr. Chauvin, a white man who was a member of the Minneapolis police department at the time of the incident in March 2020, reportedly kneeled on Mr. Floyd, a black man, for more than nine minutes while he was handcuffed in a prone position after being detained on suspicion of passing a counterfeit 20-dollar bill at a convenience store. A passer-by captured video footage of him complaining while detained that he couldn’t breathe, and the video went viral, leading to protests in the United States and around the world.
The death of Mr. Floyd led to widespread public revulsion and a violent nationwide backlash against police that continues to affect the nation’s politics, criminal justice system, and culture, as well as riots across the country that resulted in billions of dollars in damages. -Epoch Times
In 2021, prosecutors asked jurors to dismiss autopsy findings in the Floyd case.
As Jonathan Turley noted at the time;
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When called to the scene due to Floyd allegedly passing counterfeit money, Floyd denied using drugs but later said he was “hooping,” or taking drugs.
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The autopsy did not conclude that Floyd died from asphyxiation (though a family pathologist made that finding). Rather, it found “cardiopulmonary arrest while being restrained by law enforcement officer(s).” The state’s criminal complaint against Chauvin said the autopsy “revealed no physical findings that support a diagnosis of traumatic asphyxia or strangulation. Mr. Floyd had underlying health conditions including coronary artery disease and hypertensive heart disease.” He also was COVID-19 positive.
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Andrew Baker, Hennepin County’s chief medical examiner, strongly suggested that the primary cause was a huge amount of fentanyl in Floyd’s system: “Fentanyl at 11 ng/ml — this is higher than (a) chronic pain patient. If he were found dead at home alone & no other apparent causes, this could be acceptable to call an OD (overdose). Deaths have been certified w/levels of 3.” Baker also told investigators that the autopsy revealed no physical evidence suggesting Floyd died of asphyxiation.
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The toxicology report on Floyd’s blood also noted that “in fatalities from fentanyl, blood concentrations are variable and have been reported as low as 3 ng/ml.” Floyd had almost four times the level of fentanyl considered potentially lethal.
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Floyd notably repeatedly said that he could not breathe while sitting in the police cruiser and before he was ever restrained on the ground. That is consistent with the level of fentanyl in his system that can cause “slowed or stopped breathing.”
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Floyd’s lungs were two to three times the normal size and filled with fluid. “Pulmonary edema is a condition caused by excess fluid in the lungs” and it is symptomatic of an opioid overdose, according to Mayo Clinic.
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Finally, the restraint using an officer’s knee on an uncooperative suspect was part of the training of officers, and jurors will watch training videotapes employing the same type of restraint as official policy.
Will the Supreme Court entertain Chauvin’s request, risking more nationwide riots?
Tyler Durden
Sat, 07/22/2023 – 14:00 -
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