• The New New Cold War Is Pretty Much The Old New Cold War
  The New New Cold War Is Pretty Much The Old New Cold War
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sun, 05/24/2020 – 00:00

  Authored by Nicky Reid via Counterpunch.org,

  Remember when the Russians were coming? It seems like just last week Vladimir Putin was whistling the Soviet National Anthem just around every corner of main street. After the colossal clusterfuck of Hillary 2016, you couldn’t swing a dead cat in a news room without hitting another crafty Kremlin conspiracy. Those shifty almond-eyed bastards were the secret sauce behind everything that gave neoliberals heartburn; MAGA, Black Lives Matter, Wikileaks, Bernie Bros, Jill Stein, Sasquatch, Tulsi Gabbard, Colin Kaepernick, the female orgasm.

  They were behind it all!

  Putin was everywhere, like Elvis Presley in a Mojo Nixon song, and he was always up to something new, some dastardly new conspiracy to corrupt our precious bodily fluids that only Rachel Maddow and six permanently anonymous intelligence experts could save us from. Donald Trump was constantly on the brink of impeachment for pissing on a Russian prostitute dressed as Abe Lincoln and wrapped in the Constitution or some such noise. It made sense in the moment, I swear it did! It was a new day in Imperial America, a whole new Cold War was upon us, and Adam Schiff would lead us to the promise land like a liberal Joe McCarthy on a gallant white stead.

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  Now, Russiagate just feels so two-thousand-and-late.

  Schiff has been outed by his own lazy paperwork as a libelous scumfuck just a few lies and a sex crime short of the Donald himself, and Rachel Maddow’s soaring calls to action against the Kremlin menace have taken on the sea-sick patina of Alex Jones in a sporty pant suit. Even the devil himself, Vladimir Putin doesn’t seem so scary anymore. So he declares himself president-for-life and has a few more American sponsored journalists tossed in the dreaded Lubyanka, what else is on? The New Cold War is old news. In post-Covid America, the New New Cold War is where it’s at.

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  Who needs those vodka-soaked Russkies when you have the Chinese! (Gong bangs in background) A super sneaky, disease spewing people who’s currency is actually worth more than double-ply toilet paper, which is worth slightly more than the Dollar. Donald Trump and Mike Pompeo have hit the ground spewing with a torrential cavalcade of convoluted race-baiting accusations and innuendo about China’s devilish double-dealings, from the bat labs of Wuhan to the rocks of the South China Sea, and Joe Biden and the New York Times aren’t far behind them. Rather than taking the high road for once and denying this bullshit as an excuse for Trump to cover his orange ass on his derelict response to Covid-19, old grabby Joe has taken his usual route, bashing Trump in swing state commercials for not being stupid enough on China. Joe, they promise, could be way more stupid, and somehow, I don’t doubt that for a second.

  But as a post-tankie war nerd, I’m left scratching my head.

  Those cretins in the deep state put so much elbow grease into creating a narrative that the Soviet Union was rising from the grave like a red star bedazzled Babadook that they were willing to impeach one of their own just because he suggested that Vladimir Putin might not be the next Hitler. But now their willing to just roll over and let Trump have his new bone.

  I’d say we’re probably just about thirty days from Tucker Carlson giving John Brennan a hummer on live television while he belches about Chinese hackers and our God-given right to protect the freedom of other people’s seas. As best as I can explain the meticulous madness of these fucking vultures, I would suggest that my dearest motherfuckers take a closer look at the original Cold War, and you’ll find that not much has really changed at all. The scapegoats have shifted but the target remains the same.

  Contrary to the Marvel sponsored Captain America mythology of the Evil Empire, the Old Cold War was never about the godless evils of communism. It didn’t even really have that much to do with Russian influence, at least not empirically. Russia has always been a crafty but rickety excuse for a superpower. Truth be told, our countries own propaganda is really the only reason half the world took that tin-plated petrol state seriously to begin with. The true target always was and always will be that geostrategic phantom known as Eurasia. If you want to know what really keeps neocons and their neoliberal siblings up at night, it’s the indisputable fact that a united Eurasian economy that brings together the collective power of Europe and the Orient would crush the Dollar like the toilet paper tiger it is and bury the American Century in its own dust. The moment the Eurozone can get NATO off its ass and realize that the future rises from the east, is the moment the American imperial dream dies a rather quick and anti-climactic death.

  Russia has long been the target of choice for the simple reason that it’s the weakest link in the chain. The motherland is the land bridge that brings two continents together, and with the advent of the October Uprising in 1917, America was giftwrapped a perfect theater for instability. The real Cold War began before the First World War had even ended, when the US and it’s sundry allies sent fresh bodies from the trenches to help the Czar’s death squads traumatize the newly Soviet countryside with the White Terror, and that terror never stopped. I was done with those dastardly Bolsheviks the day I read about Kronstadt, but god only knows what kind of republican experiment Lenin and his boys might have cooked up if their new nation hadn’t been born in a bathtub of blood. The Russian people likely never would have welcomed another Czar in the form of Stalin, or Putin for that matter, if they weren’t so damn shell-shocked by American sponsored savagery that they were desperate for any iron man with a Slavic name to save them.

  Russia was the perfect enemy because they projected that air of Orthodox stoicism, even while they were crippled and hemorrhaging. But China has always been the true target, the massive competition for Europe’s hand in imperial matrimony. With the worth of Russia’s only cash cow, petrol, spiraling and a new depression exploding from the economic bubble that the Coronavirus burst, America has quite simply run out of time to scapegoat anything but the real deal. Steve Bannon knows it, and his imperial wonk nemesis Bill Kristol knows it too. Evil or not, those twisted fuckers know a thing or two about the deep state’s long game and the long game is either China goes down or America accepts its Karmic fate as their debt-ridden bitch.

  Either way, why should an anti-imperialist anarchist like me give a shit? They are all bloodthirsty statist scum after all.

  Well, I’ll tell you why. For two reasons.

  • The first is the simple fact that I am an American and I feel it is my divine duty as an anti-authoritarian pissant to piss off and smash the authority I live beneath. I’ll leave China to those cyber-punks in Hong Kong or some genderfuck Uighur with a decidedly Oriental manifesto in her burka. That’s not my lane.

  • The second reason is the basic strategic fact that as fucked up and debt-ridden as it is, America is still the world’s only truly unipolar superpower. China may look scary from a distance but as I pointed out above, they are a huge country who can barely handle keeping their own police state from falling to shambles beneath their own weight.

  China’s best hope for dominance rests in partnership above competition. A Eurasian Century would be multipolar by nature and any anarchist worth a shit can tell you, Balkanize and conquer is where it’s at.

  So meet the New New Cold War, dearest motherfuckers, same as the Old New Cold War. Call me a contrarian cunt, but I’ll be agitating for America’s demise in any damn cold war. That’s what I do. Now bring me Tucker Carlson. I’ve been waiting for an opportunity to work those tranny-bashing kidneys for long enough.

  

• These Are The Cities With The Most Self-Employed Workers
  These Are The Cities With The Most Self-Employed Workers
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 05/23/2020 – 23:30

  As tens of millions of jobs disappeared over the last few months, many found themselves for the first time depending on government unemployment benefits, which right now are the only thing keeping the consumer – the lifeblood of the American economy – on life support. But while some more industrious workers might strike out on their own – operating as sole proprietors or some other pass-through tax classification – many more will likely be forced to take the “freelance” route, which involves many of the same trappings of the sole-proprietor route, with one notable exception: the self-employed freelancer doesn’t make enough to justify incorporation.

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  Employees who met this classification, including many hourly workers at media organizations and publishers, are particularly vulnerable to the vicissitudes of fortune.

  A recent report by Volusion examines where America’s self-employed live, which can help offer some insight into how the spike in unemployment might impact local economies, housing markets, etc.

  Read the full report below:

  The coronavirus pandemic has cost a record number of Americans their jobs as much of the economy shut down in mid-March. Even as some states start to reopen, many businesses will remain closed or operate in a reduced capacity, meaning millions of workers will remain unemployed.

  According to Census Bureau data, there are over 15 million self-employed workers in the U.S., making up about 9.7% of the nation’s workforce. Self-employed workers are especially vulnerable during economic downturns since they do not have the same type of job protections as other workers. The CARES Act provides emergency government aid to workers affected by the pandemic, including the self-employed, who might normally fall through the social safety net. But these funds have been difficult to secure and can have long wait times. Furthermore, confusing messaging around the loans leave many self-employed workers unsure about what the funds can be used for.

  The self-employed, which for the purpose of this analysis includes those adults who operate either incorporated or unincorporated businesses, are represented in every industry sector except public administration. Other services—a catchall industry sector that includes, among others, car repairs, barbershops, salons, dry-cleaning, and pet care services—has the largest share of self-employed workers at nearly 26%. Both the Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining industry and the Construction industry have high rates of self-employment, at 24% and 23% respectively.

  As of 2018 (the most recent year of Census data available), these three industry sectors accounted for over 5 million self-employed workers, but a combination of non-essential business closures, disruptions of the food supply chain, and a hold on construction work in many states will likely drive these numbers down.

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  While almost 10% of workers are self-employed at the national level, the self-employment rate varies considerably across cities and states. Montana and Vermont claim the highest percentages of self-employed workers in the country, at 14% and 13.4%, respectively. On the other end of the spectrum, West Virginia has the lowest share of self-employed workers, with just 6.3% of workers who are self-employed.

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  To find the locations with the most self-employed workers, researchers at Volusion used data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The researchers ranked metro areas according to the share of workers who are self-employed. Researchers also looked at the total number of self-employed workers, the median income for self-employed workers, and the median income for all workers.

  To improve relevance, only metropolitan areas with at least 100,000 people were included in the analysis. Additionally, metro areas were grouped into the following cohorts based on population size:

  • Small metros: 100,000-349,999
  • Midsize metros: 350,000-999,999
  • Large metros: 1,000,000 or more

  Here are the metropolitan areas with the largest percentage of workers who are self-employed.

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  Read more on: Volusion

  

• Israel Had Foiled Major Qassem Soleimani Plot In Region: Ex-IDF Chief Details
  Israel Had Foiled Major Qassem Soleimani Plot In Region: Ex-IDF Chief Details
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 05/23/2020 – 23:00

  Via AlMasdarNews.com,

  The former Chief of Staff for the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), General Gadi Eisenkot, commented on the 20th anniversary of the unilateral Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, which took place on this date in 2000.

  During his interview with the publication, Israel Hayom, the ex-IDF chief said that his country managed to foil a major plan by the late Quds Force commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Major-General Qassem Soleimani, in Lebanon and Syria.

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  The former IDF chief stated that General Soleimani was planning to build airbases in Syria, and brought 100,000 Shiite youth from Pakistan and Afghanistan to the occupied Syrian Golan Heights, but he claims that the late Quds Force commander was unsuccessful.

  He said that “there were major goals for Soleimani in the Middle East, among which was maintaining the rule of Ayatollah and Iran as a strong and advanced country, achieving regional hegemony in the Middle East, and obtaining nuclear weapons.”

  “Ultimately, the best thing happened to Israel when the Americans eliminated him,” the former IDF chief said in the interview.

  Despite Eisenkot’s claim, Israel continues to heavily target Syria each month with airstrikes on what are perceived to be Iranian positions inside the country.

  Hook Says Soleimani’s Death Helps Iraqis Limit #Iranian Influence https://t.co/9gUrshjS0w

  — Asharq Al-Awsat English (@aawsat_eng) May 23, 2020

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  Most recently, outgoing Israeli Defense Minister Naftali Bennett claimed that the Iranian forces were withdrawing from Syria; however, this was refuted by Iranian officials and military personnel.

  Furthermore, they pointed out that the Iranian forces on the ground in Syria are in fact military advisors that were requested by the Syrian government.

  The Iranian officials added that these advisors would remain in Syria until the government no longer needs them.

  

• COVID Sparks Sexbot "Revolution" As People Ditch Tinder 
  COVID Sparks Sexbot “Revolution” As People Ditch Tinder 
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 05/23/2020 – 22:30

  About two weeks into lockdowns (so about late March), we said sex with strangers via popular online dating apps would become a distant memory for some as virus fears would pull back on sexual desires. Though we did make a strong point how the sex industry was about to explode:

  “As Americans are in mass quarantine and ordered to avoid social gatherings and other people, the good old days of logging into Tinder, Bumble, and or Grindr could be over for now – due mostly because, having sex with strangers could result in a contraction of the virus. 

  “This is why the rise of the sex doll industry could be imminent as millions have been forced by the government to practice social distancing to flatten the curve.”

  Back then, we pointed out how sex robot company RealDoll, also known as Abyss, was promoting its “Platinum Grade Silicone” dolls as “antibacterial” and “safe” for use during the pandemic. 

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  Now, another sex doll company, Sex Doll Genie, has reported, via Daily Star, that demand soared during the pandemic. 

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  Janet Stevenson, the owner of the doll company, said: “We have lots of products in stock, but we can’t work fast enough to keep up with demand.” 

  “We are hiring as quickly as we can and have created several new roles in fulfilment management and customer support in both the US and Europe.”

  Sex Doll Genie saw a 51.6% jump in orders from single men in February and March, with a 33.2% increase YoY from couples in April. 

  The co-founder of the company, who goes by the name Amit, told Daily Star, next-generation sexbots will soon be available to customers that include breathing and human-like heartbeat. 

  “For one of the brands we have now, it’s called AI AI-Tech, who have taken the next leap and have added some AI to it. 

  “There is one coming out by the end of this year where you can hear the heartbeat and hear them breathe.

  “I haven’t seen them used on a person yet, they are still in production, but we are getting to the point where we can call them a sex robot, but technically they are sex dolls as well.

  “I’m waiting for a way you can just plug in your Alexa or Siri into your doll, and your doll will just start talking to you.

  “We already have that technology in our pockets, we just haven’t used them for a doll yet.

  “These are just plans, nothing official yet, but we’re tinkering along with how we can put dolls in a mode where they can just talk to you, or flirt with you, all those romantic things you would expect your doll to do,” Amit said. 

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  Stevenson said: “We are seeing the sex doll industry go through a revolution during the COVID-19 pandemic with a huge increase in orders from both couples and male and single females.” 

  “Couples who have been quarantined together seem to be much more open to trying something new after possibly experimenting more during the lockdown.

  “We are also seeing more single men and women placing orders for the first time; we think this is because they view solo play as a safer alternative to dating apps like Tinder right now.

  “What’s interesting about this massive increase in demand is that we are also seeing a changing demographic which is very positive for the sex doll industry and speaks to changing attitudes at home.

  “The traditional stereotype of loners choosing sex dolls as a last resort is totally inaccurate.

  “What we are seeing now is doll use is going mainstream with men and women both enthusiastic about bringing a doll into their bedroom,” he said.

  As the sex doll revolution heats up, it comes at a troubling time when the number of children born in the US hits 35-year low.

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  We previously noted, Chris Hamilton via Econimica blog, who explained the “ongoing collapse in US population growth:” 

  “In 2019, US population growth fell to +1.55m or +0.5%…this was due to a trifecta of declining births, lower immigration, and higher deaths than anticipated.  However, as with everything “2020”, all three trends are only intensifying to blow away 2019.  Births are falling faster and further, deaths moving higher with Corona-virus and drug related overdoses, and immigration nearly non-existent.  Thus, US population growth will likely dip to “just” 1 million or +0.3% this year.  And while I anticipate (or think it feasible) that immigration could return to 2019 levels eventually, births will almost surely continue falling and deaths rising more than anticipated.  The simple outcome of this is an ongoing collapse in US population growth which is far larger than in scope than the current Corona-virus pandemic.”

  With people ditching Tinder and other popular dating apps for sex dolls, combine with millennials too broke to have children, now millions more as many were thrown into instant poverty via the economic crash, the most epic baby bust this country has ever seen could be underway. Maybe the Trump administration should start paying people to have sex, just give them more handouts via Cares Act. 

  

• The Spin War: US Military Planners Advise Expanded Online Psychological Warfare Against China
  The Spin War: US Military Planners Advise Expanded Online Psychological Warfare Against China
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 05/23/2020 – 22:00

  Authored by Alan Macleod via MintPressNews.com,

  Just three years ago, Americans had a neutral view of China (and nine years ago it was strongly favorable). Today, the same polls show that 66 percent of Americans dislike the country.

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  As the U.S. military turns its attention from the Middle East to conflict with Russia and China, American war planners are advising that the United States greatly expand its own online “psychological operations” against Beijing.

  A new report from the Financial Times details how top brass in Washington are strategizing a new Cold War with China, describing it less as World War III and more as “kicking each other under the table.” Last week, General Richard Clarke, head of Special Operations Command, said that the “kill-capture missions” the military conducted in Afghanistan were inappropriate for this new conflict, and Special Operations must move towards cyber influence campaigns instead.

  Military analyst David Maxwell, a former Special Ops soldier himself, advocated for a widespread culture war, which would include the Pentagon commissioning what he called “Taiwanese Tom Clancy” novels, intended to demonize China and demoralize its citizens, arguing that Washington should “weaponize” China’s one-child policy by bombarding Chinese people with stories of the wartime deaths of their only children, and therefore, their bloodline.

  A not dissimilar tactic was used during the first Cold War against the Soviet Union, where the CIA sponsored a huge network of artists, writers and thinkers to promote liberal and social-democratic critiques of the U.S.S.R., unbeknownst to the public, and, sometimes, even the artists themselves.

  Manufacturing consent

  In the space of only a few months, the Trump administration has gone from praising China’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic to blaming them for the outbreak, even suggesting they pay reparations for their alleged negligence. Just three years ago, Americans had a neutral view of China (and nine years ago it was strongly favorable). Today, the same polls show that 66 percent of Americans dislike China, with only 26 percent holding a positive opinion of the country. Over four-in-five people essentially support a full-scale economic war with Beijing, something the president threatened to enact last week.

  The corporate press is certainly doing their part as well, constantly framing China as an authoritarian threat to the United States, rather than a neutral force or even a potential ally, leading to a surge in anti-Chinese racist attacks at home.

  Retooling for an intercontinental war

  Although analysts have long warned that the United States gets its “ass handed to it” in hot war simulations with China or even Russia, it is not clear whether this is a sober assessment or a self-serving attempt to increase military spending. In 2002, the U.S. conducted a war game trial invasion of Iraq, where it was catastrophically defeated by Lt. Gen. Paul Van Riper, commanding Iraqi forces, leading to the whole experiment being nixed halfway through. Yet the subsequent invasion was carried out without massive loss of American lives.

  The recently published Pentagon budget request for 2021 makes clear that the United States is retooling for a potential intercontinental war with China and/or Russia. It asks for $705 billion to “shift focus from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and a greater emphasis on the types of weapons that could be used to confront nuclear giants like Russia and China,” noting that it requires “more advanced high-end weapon systems, which provide increased standoff, enhanced lethality and autonomous targeting for employment against near-peer threats in a more contested environment.” The military has recently received the first batch of low-yield nuclear warheads that experts agree blurs the line between conventional and nuclear conflict, making an all out example of the latter far more likely.

  There has been no meaningful pushback from the Democrats. Indeed, Joe Biden’s team has suggested that the United States’ entire industrial policy should revolve around “competing with China” and that their “top priority” is dealing with the supposed threat Beijing poses. The former vice-president has also attacked Trump from the right on China, trying to present him as a tool of Beijing, bringing to mind how Clinton portrayed him in 2016 as a Kremlin asset. (Green Party presidential frontrunner Howie Hawkins has promised to cut the military budget by 75 percent and to unilaterally disarm).

  Nevertheless, voices raising concern about a new arms race are few and far between. Veteran deproliferation activist Andrew Feinstein is one exception, saying:

  “Our governments spend over 1.75 trillion dollars every year on wars, on weapons, on conflict…If we could deploy that sort of resource to address the coronavirus crisis that we’re currently living through, imagine what else we could be doing. Imagine how we could be fighting the climate crisis, how we could be addressing global poverty, inequality. Our priority should never be war; our priorities need to be public health, the environment, and human well being.”

  However, if the government is going to launch a new psychological war against China, it is unlikely antiwar voices like Feinstein’s will feature much in the mainstream press.

  

• Billionaires In US Have Grown $434 Billion Richer During Pandemic
  Billionaires In US Have Grown $434 Billion Richer During Pandemic
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 05/23/2020 – 21:30

  While just under 40 million Americans have filed for unemployment since mid March, America’s billionaires are doing just fine – watching their fortunes soar a combined $434 billion during the same period, reports CNBC.

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  Leading the pack are Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg, whose fortunes grew by $34.6 and $25 billion respectively, according to the Americans for Tax Fairness and the Institute for Policy Studies’ Program for Inequality – based on Forbes data for America’s over 600 billionaires collected between March 18 and May 19.

  Percentage-wise, Elon Musk’s wealth grew 48% to $36 billion, while Zuckerberg clocked in at 46%. Bezos’ wealth grew 31% to $147 billion. His ex-wife, MacKenzie Bezos, saw her wealth increase by roughly 33% to $48 billion. On average, American billionaires saw their net worth grow 15% during the two-month period from $2.948 trillion to $3.382 trillion.

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  Bezos, Bill Gates, Zuckerberg, Buffett and Larry Ellison saw combined gains of $76 billion.

  That said, looking at YTD paints a slightly different picture:

  Because the study timeline captures the stock market bottom and quick rebound, it creates a slightly sunnier picture for billionaires than the full year. For the year, Buffett’s wealth has declined by $20 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaire’s Index, while Gates is down by $4.3 billion. For the year, Jeff Bezos has gained $35.5 billion while Zuckerberg is up by $9 billion. –CNBC

  “The surge in billionaire wealth during a global pandemic underscores the grotesque nature of unequal sacrifice,” said Chuck Collins, director of the IPS Program on Inequality and co-author of the Billionaire Bonanza 2020 report. “While millions risk their lives and livelihoods as first responders and front line workers, these billionaires benefit from an economy and tax system that is wired to funnel wealth to the top.”

  Still, the pandemic hasn’t been kind to other billionaires – whose yacht upgrades may need to wait. Those in travel and retail have taken a beating. Ralph Lauren saw his wealth drop by $100 million to $5.6 billion, while hotelier John Pritzker has seen a $34 million drop to $2.56 billion. We know, time to get a collection going.

  

• Flynn Judge Outsources High-Profile Lawyer To Explain Why He Won't Dismiss Case
  Flynn Judge Outsources High-Profile Lawyer To Explain Why He Won’t Dismiss Case
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 05/23/2020 – 21:00

  The Obama-appointed activist judge holding up the dismissal of the Michael Flynn case can’t be bothered – or simply doesn’t have the skillset required, to defend his decision not to grant the Justice Department’s request to drop the case.

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  In a reminder that the ‘swamp’ has many tentacles, the Post (tentacle-ception) a Saturday report in the Washington Post that District Judge Emmet G. Sullivan has retained Beth Wilkinson to represent him after the U.S. District Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia ordered him to explain what on God’s green earth he’s up to, after refusing to grant the DOJ’s request to drop the Flynn case in light of evidence revealing that the FBI obtained a guilty plea as part of a scheme to entrap the former Trump Director of National Intelligence.

  Certainly an odd development. Theres no reason Sullivan can’t respond to appeals court order himself.

  WapPo:
  “A federal judge doesn’t typically hire private counsel to respond to an appeals court”

  Unsure if the appeals court will allow this.

  Full story:https://t.co/70chy4CKsZ

  — Techno Fog (@Techno_Fog) May 23, 2020

  According to the report, “The U.S. District Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit is now examining the judge’s actions and the larger case against Flynn after lawyers for President Trump’s former national security adviser asked the court to force Sullivan to toss Flynn’s guilty plea.”

  Wilkinson, known for her top-notch legal skills and get-results style, is expected to file a notice with the court in the coming week about representing the judge. She declined to comment when reached Friday evening. Sullivan also declined to comment through his office.

  A federal judge doesn’t typically hire private counsel to respond to an appeals court, and yet so much about Flynn’s case has been a departure from the norm. A defendant doesn’t normally plead guilty under oath and then try to withdraw that admission, as Flynn did. The Justice Department almost never drops a case once it has essentially won a conviction, a signed guilty plea, as Attorney General William P. Barr ordered earlier this month. –Washington Post

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  Wilkinson notably represented Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh amid accusations of sexual assault during his nomination, as well as a Clinton lawyer during the investigation into whether she mishandled classified information by using a home-brew server.

  Apparently, Sullivan needs Wiklinson’s help to explain what he’s up to – and why he isn’t simply the deep state’s bitch.

  That order from the court very specifically called for the judge himself to explain his reasons.

  He’s hiring a lawyer to explain to the Court of Appeals why he won’t dismiss the case?

  — Brian Cates //Flynn & Breitbart’s Army! (@drawandstrike) May 23, 2020

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• Ukrainian MP Found Dead With Gunshot Wound To The Head
  Ukrainian MP Found Dead With Gunshot Wound To The Head
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 05/23/2020 – 20:30

  Ukrainian MP Valery Davydenko of the Dovira faction was found dead in his office bathroom with a gunshot wound to the head, according to a post by MP Ilya Kiva on his Facebook page and confirmed by local media.

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  “His body with a gunshot wound has just been found in the office of an MP Valeriy Davydenko. The circumstances are being investigated,” he wrote.

  According to the Ukrainian Truth news agency, a weapon was found near the body.

  “The body of MP Valeriy Davydenko was found in the toilet in his own office with a fatal gunshot wound to the head. An investigative police group is working at the scene,” said Deputy Interior Minister Anton Herashchenko, who added “Police and prosecutors will check all possible versions of the tragedy.”

  Davydenko was a defendant in several corruption cases – including the theft of funds from the country’s Agriculture Fund. In February, 2014, Davydenko and Borys Prykhodko – another MP from the Dovira faction, were accused of embezzling US$75 million while Prykhodko was the First Deputy Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine.

  Following Davydenko’s death, ex-People’s Deputy Ihor Mosiychuk called for the immediate arrest of Prykhodko, who he called the “accomplice in the theft of the agrarian fund.”

  

• Did Jack Dorsey Just Issue A 'Mea Culpa' To All Twitter-Banned "Conspiracy"-Peddlers?
  Did Jack Dorsey Just Issue A ‘Mea Culpa’ To All Twitter-Banned “Conspiracy”-Peddlers?
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 05/23/2020 – 20:00

  Did Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey just, sheepishly, issue a ‘mea culpa’ to all those innocent (mostly conservative) voices he has silenced in the last few years who dared to question the “Russia, Russia, Russia” narrative, the “Biden did nothing wrong” stories, the “Comey is an American hero” facts, and, of course, the “COVID started in a wet market” orgy of lies.

  In a tweet, the outspoken provider of safe-spaces, retweeted an essay by Charles Eisenstein entitled “The Conspiracy Myth” which appears to go against everything Twitter has done.

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  So, we ask in all seriousness, why did Dorsey – who has shown himself, via his actions, to be an enemy of any non-establishment-sanctioned narrative with his suspension and banning of any tweets or twitter-ers that dare to offer alternate views – retweet an essay that raises doubts about the over-arching threat of “conspiracy theories” to snowflakes, promotes the idea of exploring all sides of an argument before dismissing it, and most ironically, rails against “information suppression” and centralized decisions based on someone’s “trustworthiness”?

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  Read the essay for yourself (emphasis ours):

  The Conspiracy Myth

  The other day I was amused to read a critique of The Coronation in which the author was absolutely certain that I am a closet conspiracy theorist. He was so persuasive that I myself almost believed it.

  What is a conspiracy theory anyway? Sometimes the term is deployed against anyone who questions authority, dissents from dominant paradigms, or thinks that hidden interests influence our leading institutions. As such, it is a way to quash dissent and bully those trying to stand up to abuses of power. One needn’t abandon critical thinking to believe that powerful institutions sometimes collude, conspire, cover up, and are corrupt. If that is what is meant by a conspiracy theory, obviously some of those theories are true. Does anyone remember Enron? Iran-Contra? COINTELPRO? Vioxx? Iraqi weapons of mass destruction?

  During the time of Covid-19, another level of conspiracy theory has risen to prominence that goes way beyond specific stories of collusion and corruption to posit conspiracy as a core explanatory principle for how the world works. Fuelled by the authoritarian response to the pandemic (justifiable or not, lockdown, quarantine, surveillance and tracking, censorship of misinformation, suspension of freedom of assembly and other civil liberties, and so on are indeed authoritarian), this arch-conspiracy theory holds that an evil, power-hungry cabal of insiders deliberately created the pandemic or is at least ruthlessly exploiting it to frighten the public into accepting a totalitarian world government under permanent medical martial law, a New World Order (NWO). Furthermore, this evil group, this illuminati, pulls the strings of all major governments, corporations, the United Nations, the WHO, the CDC, the media, the intelligence services, the banks, and the NGOs. In other words, they say, everything we are told is a lie, and the world is in the grip of evil.

  So what do I think about that theory? I think it is a myth. And what is a myth? A myth is not the same thing as a fantasy or a delusion. Myths are vehicles of truth, and that truth needn’t be literal. The classical Greek myths, for example, seem like mere amusements until one decodes them by associating each god with psychosocial forces. In this way, myths bring light to the shadows and reveal what has been repressed. They take a truth about the psyche or society and form it into a story. The truth of a myth does not depend on whether it is objectively verifiable. That is one reason why, in The Coronation, I said my purpose is neither to advocate nor to debunk the conspiracy narrative, but rather to look at what it illuminates. It is, after all, neither provable nor falsifiable.

  What is true about the conspiracy myth? Underneath its literalism, it conveys important information that we ignore at great peril. 

  First, it demonstrates the shocking extent of public alienation from institutions of authority. For all the political battles of the post-WWII era, there was at least a broad consensus on basic facts and on where facts could be found. The key institutions of knowledge production — science and journalism — enjoyed broad public trust. If the New York Times and CBS Evening News said that North Vietnam attacked the United States in the Gulf of Tonkin, most people believed it. If science said nuclear power and DDT were safe, most people believed that too. To some extent, that trust was well earned. Journalists sometimes defied the interests of the powerful, as with Seymour Hersh’s expose of the My Lai massacre, or Woodward & Bernstein’s reporting on Watergate. Science, in the vanguard of civilization’s onward march, had a reputation for the objective pursuit of knowledge in defiance of traditional religious authorities, as well as a reputation for lofty disdain for political and financial motives. 

  Today, the broad consensus trust in science and journalism is in tatters. I know several highly educated people who believe the earth is flat. By dismissing flat-earthers and the tens of millions of adherents to less extreme alternative narratives (historical, medical, political, and scientific) as ignorant, we are mistaking symptom for cause. Their loss of trust is a clear symptom of a loss of trustworthiness. Our institutions of knowledge production have betrayed public trust repeatedly, as have our political institutions. Now, many people won’t believe them even when they tell the truth. This must be frustrating to the scrupulous doctor, scientist, or public official. To them, the problem looks like a public gone mad, a rising tide of anti-scientific irrationality that is endangering public health. The solution, from that perspective, would be to combat ignorance. It is almost as if ignorance is a virus (in fact, I have heard that phrase before) that must be controlled through the same kind of quarantine (for example, censorship) that we apply to the coronavirus. 

  Ironically, another kind of ignorance pervades both these efforts: the ignorance of the terrain. What is the diseased tissue upon which the virus of ignorance gains purchase? The loss of trust in science, journalism, and government reflects their long corruption: their arrogance and elitism, their alliance with corporate interests, and their institutionalized suppression of dissent. The conspiracy myth embodies the realization of a profound disconnect between the public postures of our leaders and their true motivations and plans. It bespeaks a political culture that is opaque to the ordinary citizen, a world of secrecy, image, PR,  spin, optics, talking points, perception management, narrative management, and information warfare. No wonder people suspect that there is another reality operating behind the curtains. 

  Second, the conspiracy myth gives narrative form to an authentic intuition that an inhuman power governs the world. What could that power be? The conspiracy myth locates that power in a group of malevolent human beings (who take commands, in some versions, from extraterrestrial or demonic entities). Therein lies a certain psychological comfort, because now there is someone to blame in a familiar us-versus-them narrative and victim-perpetrator-rescuer psychology. Alternatively, we could locate the “inhuman power” in systems or ideologies, not a group of conspirators. That is less psychologically rewarding, because we can no longer easily identify as good fighting evil; after all, we ourselves participate in these systems, which pervade our entire society. Systems like the debt-based money system, patriarchy, white supremacy, or capitalism cannot be removed by fighting their administrators. They create roles for evildoers to fill, but the evildoers are functionaries; puppets, not puppet masters. The basic intuition of conspiracy theories then is true: that those we think hold power are but puppets of the real power in the world. 

  A couple weeks ago I was on a call with a person who had a high position in the Obama administration and who still runs in elite circles. He said, “There is no one driving the bus.” I was a little disappointed actually, because there is indeed part of me that wishes the problem were a bunch of dastardly conspirators. Why? Because then our world’s problems would be quite easy to solve, at least in principle. Just expose and eliminate those bad guys. That is the prevailing Hollywood formula for righting the world’s wrongs: a heroic champion confronts and defeats the bad guy, and everyone lives happily ever after. Hmm, that is the same basic formula as blaming ill health on germs and killing them with the arsenal of medicine, so that we can live safe healthy lives ever after, or killing the terrorists and walling out the immigrants and locking up the criminals, all again so that we can live safe healthy lives ever after. Stamped from the same template, conspiracy theories tap into an unconscious orthodoxy. They emanate from the same mythic pantheon as the social ills they protest. We might call that pantheon Separation, and one of its chief motifs is the war against the Other.

  That is not to say there is no such thing as a germ — or a conspiracy. Watergate, COINTELPRO, Iran-Contra, Merck’s drug Vioxx, Ford’s exploding Pinto coverup, Lockheed-Martin’s bribery campaign, Bayer’s knowing sale of HIV-contaminated blood, and the Enron scandal demonstrate that conspiracies involving powerful elites do happen. None of the above are myths though: a myth is something that explains the world; it is, mysteriously, bigger than itself. Thus, the Kennedy assassination conspiracy theory (which I will confess, doubtless at cost to my credibility, to accepting as literally true) is a portal to the mythic realm. 

  The conspiracy myth I’m addressing here, though, is much larger than any of these specific examples: It is that the world as we know it is the result of a conspiracy, with the Illuminati or controllers as its evil gods. For believers, it becomes a totalizing discourse that casts every event into its terms. 

  It is a myth with an illustrious pedigree, going back at least to the time of the first century Gnostics. Gnostics believe that an evil demiurge created the material world out of a preexisting divine essence. Creating the world in the image of his own distortion, he imagines himself to be its true god and ruler.

  One needn’t believe in this literally, nor believe literally in a world-controlling evil cabal, to derive insight from this myth — insight into the arrogance of the powerful, for example, or into the nature of the distortion that colors the world of our experience. 

  What is it that makes the vast majority of humanity comply with a system that drives Earth and humankind to ruin? What power has us in its grip? It isn’t just the conspiracy theorists who are captive to a mythology. Society at large is too. I call it the mythology of Separation: me separate from you, matter separate from spirit, human separate from nature. It holds us as discrete and separate selves in an objective universe of force and mass, atoms and void. Because we are (in this myth) separate from other people and from nature, we must dominate our competitors and master nature. Progress, therefore, consists in increasing our capacity to control the Other. The myth recounts human history as an ascent from one triumph to the next, from fire to domestication to industry to information technology, genetic engineering, and social science, promising a coming paradise of control. That same myth motivates the conquest and ruin of nature, organizing society to turn the entire planet into money — no conspiracy necessary.

  The mythology of Separation is what generates what I named in The Coronation as a “civilizational tilt” toward control. The solution template is, facing any problem, to find something to control — to quarantine, to track, to imprison, to wall out, to dominate, or to kill. If control fails, more control will fix it. To achieve social and material paradise, control everything, track every movement, monitor every word, record every transaction. Then there can be no more crime, no more infection, no more disinformation. When the entire ruling class accepts this formula and this vision, they will act in natural concert to increase their control. It is all for the greater good. When the public accepts it too, they will not resist it. This is not a conspiracy, though it can certainly look like one. This is a third truth within the conspiracy myth. Events are indeed orchestrated in the direction of more and more control, only the orchestrating power is itself a zeitgeist, an ideology… a myth.

  A Conspiracy with No Conspirators

  Let us not dismiss the conspiracy myth as just a myth. Not only is it an important psychosocial diagnostic, but it reveals what is otherwise hard to see from the official mythology in which society’s main institutions, while flawed, are shepherding us ever-closer to a high tech paradise. That dominant myth blinds us to the data points the conspiracy theorists recruit for their narratives. These might include things like regulatory capture in the pharmaceutical industry, conflicts of interest within public health organizations, the dubious efficacy of masks, the far-lower-than-hyped death rates, totalitarian overreach, the questionable utility of lockdown, concerns about non-ionizing frequencies of electromagnetic radiation, the benefits of natural and holistic approaches to boosting immunity, bioterrain theory, the dangers of censorship in the name of “combatting disinformation,” and so forth. It would be nice if one could raise the numerous valid points and legitimate questions that alternative Covid narratives bring to light without being classed as a right-wing conspiracy theorist. 

  The whole phrase “right-wing conspiracy theorist” is a bit odd, since traditionally it is the Left that has been most alert to the proclivity of the powerful to abuse their power. Traditionally, it is the Left that is suspicious of corporate interests, that urges us to “question authority,” and that has in fact been the main victim of government infiltration and surveillance.

  Fifty years ago, if anyone said, “There is a secret program called COINTELPRO that is spying on civil rights groups and sowing division within them with poison pen letters and fabricated rumors,” that would have been a conspiracy theory by today’s standards.

  The same, 25 years ago, with, “There is a secret program in which the CIA facilitates narcotics sales into American inner cities and uses the money to fund right-wing paramilitaries in Central America.”

  The same with government infiltration of environmental groups and peace activists starting in the 1980s.

  Or more recently, the infiltration of the Standing Rock movement.

  Or the real estate industry’s decades-long conspiracy to redline neighborhoods to keep black people out.

  Given this history, why all of a sudden is it the Left urging everyone to trust “the Man” — to trust the pronouncements of the pharmaceutical companies and pharma-funded organizations like the CDC and WHO? Why is skepticism towards these institutions labeled “right wing”? It isn’t as if only the privileged are “inconvenienced” by lockdown. It is devastating the lives of tens or hundreds of millions of the global precariat. The UN World Food Program is warning that by the end of the year, 260 million people will face starvation. Most are black and brown people in Africa and South Asia. One might argue that to restrict the debate to epidemiological questions of mortality is itself a privileged stance that erases the suffering of those who are most marginalized to begin with.

  “Conspiracy theory” has become a term of political invective, used to disparage any view that diverges from mainstream beliefs. Basically, any critique of dominant institutions can be smeared as conspiracy theory. There is actually a perverse truth in this smear. For example, if you believe that glyphosate is actually dangerous to human and ecological health, then you also must, if you are logical, believe that Bayer/Monsanto is suppressing or ignoring that information, and you must also believe that the government, media, and scientific establishment are to some extent complicit in that suppression. Otherwise, why are we not seeing NYT headlines like, “Monsanto whistleblower reveals dangers of glyphosate”? 

  Information suppression can happen without deliberate orchestration. Throughout history, hysterias, intellectual fads, and mass delusions have come and gone spontaneously. This is more mysterious than the easy conspiracy explanation admits. An unconscious coordination of action can look very much like a conspiracy, and the boundary between the two is blurry. Consider the weapons of mass destruction (WMD) fraud that served as a pretext for the invasion of Iraq. Maybe there were people in the Bush administration who knowingly used the phony “yellowcake” document to call for war; maybe they just wanted very much to believe the documents were genuine, or maybe they thought, “Well, this is questionable but Saddam must have WMD, and even if he doesn’t, he wants them, so the document is basically true…” People easily believe what serves their interests or fits their existing worldview. 

  In a similar vein, the media needed little encouragement to start beating the war drums. They knew what to do already, without having to receive instructions. I don’t think very many journalists actually believed the WMD lie. They pretended to believe, because subconsciously, they knew that was the establishment narrative. That was what would get them recognized as serious journalists. That’s what would give them access to power. That is what would allow them to keep their jobs and advance their careers. But most of all, they pretended to believe because everyone else was pretending to believe. It is hard to go against the zeitgeist. 

  The British scientist Rupert Sheldrake told me about a talk he gave to a group of scientists who were working on animal behaviour at a prestigious British University. He was talking about his research on dogs that know when their owners are coming home, and other telepathic phenomena in domestic animals. The talk was received with a kind of polite silence. But in the following tea break all six of the senior scientists who were present at the seminar came to him one by one, and when they were sure that no one else was listening told him they had had experiences of this kind with their own animals, or that they were convinced that telepathy is a real phenomenon, but that they could not talk to their colleagues about this because they were all so straight. When Sheldrake realised that all six had told him much the same thing, he said to them, “Why don’t you guys come out? You’d all have so much more fun!” He says that when he gives a talk at a scientific institution there are nearly always scientists who approach him afterwards telling him they’ve had personal experiences that convince them of the reality of psychic or spiritual phenomena but that they can’t discuss them with their colleagues for fear of being thought weird.

  This is not a deliberate conspiracy to suppress psychic phenomena. Those six scientists didn’t convene beforehand and decide to suppress information they knew was real. They keep their opinions to themselves because of the norms of their subculture, the basic paradigms that delimit science, and the very real threat of damage to their careers. The persecution and calumny directed at Sheldrake himself demonstrates what happens to a scientist who is outspoken in his dissent from official scientific reality. So, we might still say that a conspiracy is afoot, but its perpetrator is a culture, a system, and a story. 

  Is this, or a deliberate conspiratorial agenda, a more satisfying explanation for the seemingly inexorable trends (which by no means began with Covid) toward surveillance, tracking, distancing, germ phobia, obsession with safety, and the digitization and indoor-ization of entertainment, recreation, and sociality? If the perpetrator is indeed a cultural mythology and system, then conspiracy theories offer us a false target, a distraction. The remedy cannot be to expose and take down those who have foisted these trends upon us. Of course, there are many bad actors in our world, remorseless people committing heinous acts. But have they created the system and the mythology of Separation, or do they merely take advantage of it? Certainly such people should be stopped, but if that is all we do, and leave unchanged the conditions that breed them, we will fight an endless war. Just as in bioterrain theory germs are symptoms and exploiters of diseased tissue, so also are conspiratorial cabals symptoms and exploiters of a diseased society: a society poisoned by the mentality of war, fear, separation, and control. This deep ideology, the myth of separation, is beyond anyone’s power to invent. The Illuminati, if they exist, are not its authors; it is more true to say that the mythology is their author. We do not create our myths; they create us.

  Which side are you on?

  In the end, I still haven’t said whether I think the New World Order conspiracy myth is true or not. Well actually yes I have. I have said it is true as a myth, regardless of its correspondence to verifiable facts. But what about the facts? Come on, Charles, tell us, is there actually a conspiracy behind the Covid thing, or isn’t there? There must be an objective fact of the matter. Are chemtrails a thing? Was SARS-COV2 genetically engineered? Is microwave radiation from cellphone towers a factor? Are vaccines introducing viruses from animal cell cultures into people? Is Bill Gates masterminding a power grab in the form of medical martial law? Does a Luciferian elite rule the world? True or false? Yes or no? 

  To this question I would respond with another: Given that I am not an expert on any of these matters, why do you want to know what I think? Could it be to place me on one side or another of an information war? Then you will know whether it is OK to enjoy this essay, share it, or have me on your podcast.  In an us-versus-them war mentality, the most important thing is to know which side someone is on, lest you render aid and comfort to the enemy. 

  Aha — Charles must be on the other side. Because he has created a false equivalency between peer-reviewed, evidence-based, respectable scientific knowledge on the one hand, and unhinged conspiracy theories on the other. 

  Aha — Charles must be on the other side. Because he has created a false equivalency between corporate-government-NWO propaganda on the one hand, and brave whistle-blowers and dissidents risking their careers for the truth on the other. 

  Can you see how totalizing war mentality can be?

  War mentality saturates our polarized society, which envisions progress as a consequence of victory — victory over a virus, over the ignorant, over the left, over the right, over the psychopathic elites, over Donald Trump, over white supremacy, over the liberal elites…. Each side uses the same formula, and that formula requires an enemy. So, obligingly, we divide ourselves up into us and them, exhausting 99% of our energies in a fruitless tug-of-war, never once suspecting that the true evil power might be the formula itself. 

  This is not to propose that we somehow banish conflict from human affairs. It is to question a mythology — embraced by both sides — that conceives every problem in conflict’s terms. Struggle and conflict have their place, but other plotlines are possible. There are other pathways to healing and to justice. 

  A Call for Humility

  Have you ever noticed that events seem to organize themselves to validate the story you hold about the world? Selection bias and confirmation bias explain some of that, but I think something weirder is at work as well. When we enter into deep faith or deep paranoia, it seems as if that state attracts confirmatory events to it. Reality organizes itself to match our stories. In a sense, this IS a conspiracy, just not one perpetrated by humankind. That might be a third truth that the conspiracy myth harbors: the presence of an organizing intelligence behind the events of our lives. 

  In no way does this imply the New Age nostrum that beliefs create reality. Rather, it is that reality and belief construct each other, coevolving as a coherent whole. The intimate, mysterious connection between myth and reality means that belief is never actually a slave to fact. We are facts’ sovereign — which is not to say their creator. To be their sovereign doesn’t mean to be their tyrant, disrespecting and over-ruling them. The wise monarch pays attention to an unruly subject, such as a fact that defies the narrative. Maybe it is simply a disturbed trouble-maker, like a simple lie, but maybe it signals disharmony in the kingdom. Maybe the kingdom is no longer legitimate. Maybe the myth is no longer true. It could well be that the vociferous attacks on Covid dissent, using the “conspiracy theory” smear, signal the infirmity of the orthodox paradigms they seek to uphold.

  If so, that doesn’t mean the orthodox paradigms are all wrong either. To leap from one certainty to another skips the holy ground of uncertainty, of not knowing, of humility, into which genuinely new information can come. What unites the pundits of all persuasions is their certainty. Who is trustworthy? In the end, it is the person with the humility to recognize when he or she has been wrong. 

  To those who categorically dismiss any information that seriously challenges conventional medicine, lockdown policies, vaccines, etc., I would ask, Do you need such high walls around your kingdom? Instead of banishing these unruly subjects, would it hurt to give them an audience?

  Would it be so dangerous to perhaps tour another kingdom, guided not by your own loyal minister but by the most intelligent, welcoming partisans of the other side?

  If you have no interest in spending the several hours it will take to absorb the following dissenting opinions, fine. I’d rather be in my garden too.

  But if you are a partisan in these issues, what harm will it do to visit enemy territory? Normally partisans don’t do that. They rely on the reports of their own leaders about the enemy. If they know anything of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s or Judy Mikovitz’s views, it is through the lens of someone debunking them. So give a listen to Kennedy, or if you prefer MD’s only, to David Katz, Zach Bush, or Christiane Northrup…

  I would like to offer the same invitation to those who reject the conventional view.

  Find the most scrupulous mainstream doctors and scientists you can, and dive into their world. Take the attitude of a respectful guest, not a hostile spy. If you do that, I guarantee you will encounter data points that challenge any narrative you came in with. The splendor of conventional virology, the wonders of chemistry that generations of scientists have discovered, the intelligence and sincerity of most of these scientists, and the genuine altruism of health care workers on the front line who have no political or financial conflict of interest in the face of grave risk to themselves, must be part of any satisfactory narrative.

  After two months of obsessively searching for one, I have not yet found a satisfactory narrative that can account for every data point. That doesn’t mean to take no action because after all, knowledge is never certain. But in the whirlwind of competing narratives and the disjoint mythologies beneath them, we can look for action that makes sense no matter which side is right. We can look for truths that the smoke and clamor of the battle obscures. We can question assumptions both sides take for granted, and ask questions neither side is asking. Not identified with either side, we can gather knowledge from both.

  Generalizing to society, by bringing in all the voices, including the marginalized ones, we can build a broader social consensus and begin to heal the polarization that is rending and paralyzing our society.

  *  *  *

  Is this a new mission statement for Twitter 2.0 – allow adults to be adults, erase the nanny-statism, and offer the world a platform to exchange ideas freely?

  

• Elite US Marine Unit Conducts Live-Fire Drills In Persian Gulf "Message To Iran"
  Elite US Marine Unit Conducts Live-Fire Drills In Persian Gulf “Message To Iran”
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 05/23/2020 – 19:30

  Days ago we took note of Secretary of State Pompeo’s somewhat rare epic ‘regime change tweet tirade’ which included no less than nine fiery statements coming in minutes aimed at ‘rogue regimes’ Iran, Cuba and Venezuela.

  Though some pundits have noted the administration is looking for a “distraction” and way out of the nation’s corona-crisis, perhaps eager to claim an easy ‘victory’ prior to November on the foreign policy front, it does look as if things in both the Persian Gulf and even Caribbean (where 5 Iranian fuel tankers are inbound to deliver gasoline to Maduro’s Venezuela) are heating up and set for violent showdown. 

  Amid an exchange of heightening threats and counter-threats between Tehran and Washington, Fox News reports that an elite US Marine unit is conducting ongoing ‘live-fire’ drills in the Persian Gulf. This is a clear “message to Iran” reports Fox’s Lucas Tomlinson.

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  “In a message to Iran, U.S. Air Force AC-130 gunship does some target practice in Persian Gulf with the USS Bataan Amphibious Ready Group and embarked 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit,” Thomlinson writes, also publishing rare photos of the late night operation. 

  He further describes: “The live-fire training began on same day U.S. military warned Iran to keep back 100 meters from its warships after harassment by small gunboats from Islamic Revolutionary Guard last month.”

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  Days ago, on May 19, the US Navy issued an alert which Reuters described as “aimed squarely at Iran”.

  It warned that all ships in the gulf must stay at least 100 meters away from U.S. warships or risk being “interpreted as a threat and subject to lawful defensive measures.”

  “Armed vessels approaching within 100 meters of a U.S. naval vessel may be interpreted as a threat,” the official maritime alert said.

  Reuters noted further, “The Pentagon has stated that Trump’s threat was meant to underscore the Navy’s right to self-defense.”

  This was after multiple filmed incidents involving Iranian naval ‘fast-boats’ in high-risk maneuvers near American ships, aimed at harassing the US presence. 

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  As we’ve underscored before, a number of indicators suggest we are in for another hot ‘tanker war’ summer in the Gulf, akin to last year’s tit-for-tat escalation.

  But this time around the potential for a major conflict is even more likely, given the US killing of IRGC Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani in January, which has significantly raised the stakes.

  

• Master Of Puppets: Bitcoin Cuts The Strings
  Master Of Puppets: Bitcoin Cuts The Strings
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 05/23/2020 – 19:00

  Authored by J.D.Salbego via CoinTelegraph.com,

  The centralized financial system has compromised itself several times during the last two decades alone, and now it’s time for a serious change!

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  image courtesy of CoinTelegraph

  Did you notice the song that Christian Bale’s character was jamming out to in his office when his partner came in to pull the money in The Big Short? Well, it happens to be my favorite metal band of all time: Metallica. And that song is called “Master of Puppets.” It’s almost ironic that as I was writing this article on the real truth behind what’s currently happening with the collapse of our financial and economic markets and calling it “Master of Puppets” — well, this movie scene popped in my mind. 

  Yes, The Big Short is about the big 2008 financial crisis caused mainly by none other than the United States Federal Reserve. Spoiler alert! This will be one of the last times you read about any type of “correlation” here in this article.

  Master of Puppets is Metallica’s third album, released in 1986, and it is probably the greatest metal album of all time. I still listen to it almost weekly. It’s great for working out or getting pumped up before a business meeting.

  Anyways, back to the master. The curtain has been removed and the truth revealed: money is created out of thin air, and the banks and Wall Street are bathing in it.

  To be very clear, there was a major and historical financial crisis by orders of magnitude already about to explode, and the COVID-19 pandemic just brought the economy to its knees a tiny bit quicker.

  At a crucial intersection of events in time that couldn’t have been more bluntly shoved in your face, 16 million people in the U.S. lost their jobs (and it’s almost 36.5 million now.) And like a drunk driver recklessly running a red light at an intersection, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had the highest gains since 1938. All while the Fed was printing 4 trillion U.S. dollars out of thin air.

  Where’s the correlation? Whoever can find it will prove reincarnation exists, as they must be J. P. Morgan himself, reincarnated in the flesh — only 100 years even more crafty and conniving. And the government and the Federal Reserve say Bitcoin (BTC) is backed by thin air?

  Our economy and the Federal Reserve is built on sticks (debt), and remember what happened to that little piggy that didn’t use bricks? Let’s hope the strings become severed from the puppet master and like a bungee cord slap back into its face with the inertia and momentum of more than 150 years of control, lies and manipulation.

  The amount of truth that’s starting to become available and acknowledged by the general public about our governments and financial institutions is alarming, and hopefully this will be a stepping point into a new paradigm or, what I like to say, a “new world order.”

  The Fed and the government’s economic strategy is just putting an already used Band-Aid (quantitative easing and debt monetization) on a gunshot wound. It’s not fixing the real problem. And for obvious reasons.

  The U.S. has for years substantially spent trillions of dollars more than it brings in. To date, the debt owed by the federal government is over $25 trillion. Even more unfathomable to see, with some very complicated calculations, is that it’s looking like an estimated, or near, amount of $100 trillion will need to be printed (out of thin air), or what the Fed likes to call “increase the monetary base,” in order to bail out and keep institutions afloat.

  This would then create the ripple effect of causing global economies to reach hyperinflation such as has been never seen before. That’s called a lose-lose (or no-win) situation caused by none other than our government, the banking system, Wall Street and their combined mismanagement of our economies.

  Understanding economics and monetary policies can be complicated for many, even myself, but it’s not complicated enough where I will not speak up and just sit here as the blind sheep being led by the wolf in sheep’s clothing to my bitter end.

  To clarify, as it’s important: Bitcoin will never be a replacement for a nation’s central bank currency or new digital currency that’s in development now. It’s more the digital gold of the 21st century and onward.

  But most importantly, and much like the U.S. fighting for its freedom and control from an unfair controlling centralized system such as England, it was the first to step in thousands of years of oppression to launch a revolution.

  Like Joan of Arc or Che Guevara, who became martyrs for the better of society, Bitcoin itself has taken the beating from its first inception — including being declared a national security issue — but it was so powerful in igniting a revolution that it withstood all the hardships and persecution that the governments and central banks cast upon it. So, what it serves to be is the Medal of Honor for this new paradigm shift of the people’s money, leading the future of money with a more transparent, fair and peer-to-peer monetary system.

  The more we talk about this, the more people may eventually get it — I hope. The general public should really try to understand this. It’s all credits and debts and leveraged positions and margins.

  Remember that incredible luncheon scene in The Wolf of Wall Street where Matthew McConaughey’s super Wall Street broker character educates a young and hungry rookie broker, played by Leonardo DiCaprio, breaking down how the real system works? Matthew McConaughey, with a straight face and twist of sarcasm, says, “Fugayzi, fugazi. It’s a wazzy, it’s a woozy. It’s fairy dust. It doesn’t exist. It’s never landed. It is no matter. It’s not on the elemental chart. It’s not f—— real.”

  Just so you know: This system doesn’t just apply to brokering trades on the stock market. It applies to all the banking, monetary and financial systems around the world. 

  Fairy dust old money is just a hierarchically controlled propaganda belief system.

  Blockchain-based new money is the P2P, fair and transparent people’s-money.

  That’s exactly right. Thank you, Martin Scorsese and your screenwriters, for this brilliantly creative scene. Yet it’s fair to say that this part of the scene was definitely outshined by the more memorable “rookie numbers” part.

  But as history has continuously proven to us, unfortunately, much of the population takes comfort in the machine (the “master”), no matter the consequences. As some say, “Ignorance is bliss.” 

  Maybe they were so caught up in the genius writing and humor from Scorsese and these two brilliant actors that they missed it. I know I almost fell out of my chair laughing.

  So, as the banker artistically creates his leveraged position out of thin air, like abstract images flow out of the tip of Dali’s paintbrush — or Scorsese’s brain to film — I ask you: Does art imitate life, or does life imitate art?

  Finally, the cat is out of the bag, though unfortunately only hindsight is 20/20, and time will tell what changes actually occur after this mess. Hopefully it’s different this time. 

  As says the famous “possible quote” of Henry Ford (most people don’t know the real facts behind that quote) that was paraphrased by congressperson Charles Binderup on March 19, 1937, in the House of Representatives:

  “It is perhaps well enough that the people of the nation do not know or understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.”

  Want to know how the banking system really works? Here it goes:

  You don’t deposit cash at a bank. You actually just lend it to the bank, and when you go to draw on that account, you are just creating a transaction inputted on a digital ledger. You are not actually drawing out your original money. The banks then charge you fees to actually lend them money as well in the form of monthly account fees, overdraft fees and all the other small print fees that sneak in.

  When the bank deposits money in your account in the form of a credit — for instance, if you buy a house — it’s not an actual credit, it’s really a debt that it repackages and calls a mortgage by leveraging its position and creating a profit margin for the services of lending you part of your own money back that you originally gave it, as well as all its other customers’ money. There is only one form of real money in this transaction, and that is the money that you originally gave the bank. It’s basically holding a lien over you and on your new house with the money you and its other customers let it borrow, which it turned around and let you borrow again and charged fees on it. All it did was “artistically” create a leveraged position and profit margin by creating a credit and debt out of thin air.

  The stark reality is that there really is no money. This centralized system is just conjured up credit, debt and margin entries on a centralized ledger that’s agreed upon (consensus) by a centralized group of participants.

  

• Bankruptcy Tsunami Begins: Thousands Of Default Notices Are "Flying Out The Door"
  Bankruptcy Tsunami Begins: Thousands Of Default Notices Are “Flying Out The Door”
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 05/23/2020 – 18:30

  Two weeks ago, when showing the uncanny correlation between defaults and the unemployment rates, we predicted that the number of Chapter 11 filings that is about to flood the US will be nothing short of biblical.

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  All that was missing was a catalyst… and according to Bloomberg that catalyst arrived in the past week or so, as retail landlords have been sending out thousands of default notices to tenants, who in turn have experienced a collapse in foot traffic, sales and cash flow due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and are simply unable to pay their debt obligations.

  According to Bloomberg, restaurants, department stores, apparel merchants and specialty chains have been receiving notices from landlords – some of whom have gone as long as three months without receiving rent.

  “The default letters from landlords are flying out the door,” said Andy Graiser, co-president of commercial real estate company, A&G Real Estate Partners. “It’s creating a real fear in the marketplace.”

  Pressure from default notices and follow-up actions like locking up stores or terminating leases was cited in the bankruptcies of Modell’s Sporting Goods and Stage Stores Inc. Many chains stopped paying rent after the pandemic shuttered most U.S. stores, gambling that they could hold on to some cash before landlords demanded payment.

  The stakes are enormous, and landlords are suffering, too. An estimated $7.4 billion in rent for April hasn’t been paid, or about 45% of what’s owed, according to a recent analysis by CoStar Group, which also found that just a quarter of of expected rent payments have been received by landlords.

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  “If the landlords don’t put a pause on their actions, you’re going to see more bankruptcies.”

  The question then becomes who will bail out the landlords, and whether their creditors will be just as generous in accepting forbearance.

  That said, receipt of a default notice don’t necessarily mean a retailers will get booted anytime soon, especially since there is nobody waiting in line for the real estate: some landlords are merely sending letters to preserve their legal rights while discussing the situation with tenants, and to assure their spot as a prepetition creditor once the default tsunami begins in earnest.

  One such company, Simon Property Group Inc., says it’s in active negotiations with merchants at its malls, and has been taking their tenants’ financial status into account. “The bottom line is, we do have a contract and we do expect to get paid,” said CEO David Simon during the company’s May 11 earnings call.

  “The landlords do have the legal contract,” said Green Street Advisors senior analyst, Vince Tibone. “However, from a practicality standpoint, a lot of these retailers are on the brink of bankruptcy and simply cannot pay right now.”

  However, as noted above, landlords are of course still stuck with their own bills – including bank debts which they’re expected to pay. On Thursday we reported that US malls are in a crisis which started in January as vacancies hit a record high.

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  And earlier Friday we reported that US retailers have accounted for the bulk of defaults over the past two months, as they were forced to temporarily close stores in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

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  Retailers Neiman Marcus Group, J.Crew and J.C. Penney have already filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection this month in the United States. But the real bankruptcy wave was just waiting for the unspoken covid-related grace period to end, and for the default notices to start flying.

  The letters began arriving in March and early April, “but the rate of such notices picked up materially in late April and early May,” Stage Stores said. Some landlords began locking the company out “and threatened to evict the debtors and dispose of the in-store inventory.” The company also said that “responding to and managing these default notices and related litigation outside of Chapter 11 would have been a monumentally difficult task.”

  “It’s not like there’s a lot of investors out there looking to buy retailers in a Chapter 11,” said Grasier, adding “Landlords and retailers need to really come together and realize that this a shared pain.”

  Some landlords get it, according to Tom Mullaney, managing director of restructuring at real estate services firm Jones Lang LaSalle. Retailers he represents are getting default letters that are understanding and sympathetic; other landlords strike a more combative tone.

  What’s more interesting is the action, or lack of it, by the landlords afterward, Mullaney said. “In a lot of cases, the letters that are being sent aren’t being followed up on,” he said – the landlords are simply preserving their legal rights. Maybe they just don’t have the fund to retain lawyers?

  Others, meanwhile, are just taking the law into their own hands: some property owners have run out of patience and have locked out Mullaney’s clients. “The environment is getting pretty testy and emotional on both sides of the table,” he said. “The only thing worse than being a retailer right now is being a retail landlord.”

  

• Questions Over Chinese Influence Emerge After Biden Charitable Organizations Refuse To Disclose Funding
  Questions Over Chinese Influence Emerge After Biden Charitable Organizations Refuse To Disclose Funding
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 05/23/2020 – 18:00

  Following his departure from the Obama administration in 2017, former Vice President Joe Biden established three charitable organizations; the Penn Biden Center for Diplomacy and Global Engagement, the Biden Institute at the University of Delaware, and the Biden Cancer Initiative.

  And as the Washington Free Beacon notes, many of Biden’s nonprofits have become landing spots for his former – and potentially future – White House aides.

  The Penn Biden Center, which had a “soft opening” in March 2017 and officially opened its doors in February 2018, has served as a national security council-in-waiting for Biden, employing his top White House foreign policy advisers Colin Kahl, Michael Carpenter, and Jeffrey Prescott. –Free Beacon

  Yet, when asked about their sources of funding, the Biden entities have been anything but transparent. For example, when the Free Beacon asked a Biden Center spokesman about its funding, they said it was “a question for my colleagues at main university.” Penn spokesman Stephen MacCarthy simply blew off multiple requests for comment, as did the Biden campaign.

  The Biden Cancer initiative, which had $2.1 million in assets in 2018 before suspending operations last year, similarly declined to provide a list of donors.

  And the Biden Institute at the University of Delaware has also refused requests for transparency by the Free Beacon.

  What we do know, however, is that the University of Pennsylvania received a 300% increase in donations since the Biden Center’s soft opening – from $31 million in 2016 to $100 million last year, according to records from the Department of Education. The largest contributor? China – which contributed $61 million in gifts and contracts between March 2017 and the end of last year. In the preceding four years – before the Biden Center opened, Penn took in just $19 million from China.

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  The donations included a $502,750 “monetary gift” in October 2017 from the State Administration of Foreign Experts Affairs, a Chinese government agency that helps administer the regime’s “Thousand Talents Plan.” Federal prosecutors claim the program is linked to Chinese espionage operations at American universities and have prosecuted academics for hiding their involvement in it. Other contributors included China’s Zhejiang University, the China Merchants Bank, and the China Everbright Group, a state-owned investment group, according to federal records. –Free Beacon

  Is this why Joe Biden has been soft on China?

  Or was Biden downplaying China due to the $1.5 billion private equity deal his son Hunter inked in 2013, weeks after the two Bidens flew to China on Air Force Two?

  Back to the lecture at hand, many of the Chinese contributions to the University of Pennsylvania were listed as coming from “anonymous” donors – which experts have called an “easy tactic” which allows the Chinese to penetrate the US education system.

  “Anonymous giving to universities is an easy tactic the Chinese Communist Party can use to further its pernicious influence in American universities,” said Indo-Pacific studies fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council, Michael Sobolik.

  Between March 2017 and the end of 2019, Penn received $21 million from China spread across 23 anonymous gifts. In the preceding four years, the university had just five donations from China totaling under $5 million.

  “Policymakers should investigate this vulnerability further and take necessary steps to close the loophole,” said Sobolik. “If universities and professors are lax in their reporting, the Department of Education, and when appropriate the Department of Justice, should hold them accountable.”

  Government watchdog group, The National Legal and Policy Center, filed a complaint with the Department of Education on Wednesday requesting an investigation into Penn’s anonymous Chinese funding, according to the Beacon, which received a copy.

  “Joe Biden’s affiliation with the Penn Biden Center further raises concerns of foreign influence not unlike those raised when the Clinton Foundation received millions of dollars in donations while Hillary Clinton was running for president,” reads the complaint, which asks the DoE to “refer the matter to the Department of Justice for civil enforcement in federal court, and seek recoupment of all costs to the U.S. government for investigating and enforcing the reporting and disclosure laws of China monetary gifts and contracts.”

  The anonymous contributions could also run afoul of federal law that requires universities to disclose the source of any foreign donation or contract over $250,000, according to the NLPC.

  “The reporting and disclosure violations of gifts from China to U of Penn and its Penn Biden Center are both numerous and flagrant,” said Paul Kamenar, counsel for NLPC. “The Department of Justice should take swift enforcement action in federal court and recoup all costs getting them to comply with the law.”

  The NLPC said in its letter the University of Pennsylvania and the Penn Biden Center were “particularly vulnerable to China government influences due to the large amounts of China donations and contracts” at the school.

  Penn’s investment in the Penn Biden Center has been significant: a luxe D.C. office directly across from the U.S. Capitol Building in addition to employment for Biden’s longtime foreign policy aides; highly promoted conferences featuring Biden conversing with foreign leaders; and a total of $900,000 in payments to the former vice president, according to his tax records. –Free Beacon

  The website for the Biden Center – which is part of the University of Pennsylvania’s “Penn Global” department – features photos of Biden meeting with Chinese president Xi Jinping and other world leaders. It handles the university’s foreign research and outreach programs, which have become increasingly focused on China in recent years, according to the report.

  According to the Penn Global website, the university has “over 20 international partnerships with Chinese institutions” and has conducted “over 350 research projects and instructional activities in China.”

  In 2015, a $10 million research-matching funding program was launched. The China Research and Engagement fund was designed to fund Penn medical research in China – which has included studies to improve the country’s pork production – as well as aeronautical engineering projects to help China reach its national aviation goals.

  You don’t say?

   

  

• Silicon Valley Tech Giants Caught Providing Services To Blacklisted Chinese Security Firms
  Silicon Valley Tech Giants Caught Providing Services To Blacklisted Chinese Security Firms
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 05/23/2020 – 17:30

  Remember when ex-Google Chairman Eric Schmidt appeared on CNBC earlier this month for an interview with Andrew Ross “the Sork” Sorkin – an interview that swiftly devolved in Schmidt chiding the Trump Administration for its impudence while defending the longstanding ties between the Chinese Communist Party leadership and Silicon Valley’s elite and warning about the purportedly extraordinarily high costs of ‘economic decoupling’.

  Because the downside about decoupling, Schmidt said, is that if China turns elsewhere for ag products and other products, “they’re not coming back” (this as China continues the charade of upholding the trade deal because President Xi needs an excuse to buy US agricultural products without looking weak)

  The former Google chairman’s comments on China begin around the 13-minute mark.

  In a report that reads like an Intel community plant, largely since it dropped just hours after the US announced plans to add 30+ Chinese firms to a blacklist over their involvement with China’s state security apparatus, CNBC claimed early Saturday morning that Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon have all been caught providing tech services to several companies that were added to a US blacklist last year by President Trump over allegations that they helped Beijing build the security apparatus use to imprison 1 million Muslims in Xinjiang.

  Top10VPN, a site that reviews virtual private network (VPN) services and researches topics on privacy, said in a report that it had identified U.S. technology giants that provide “essential web services that power these companies’ websites.”

  CNBC reached out to the U.S. firms named in the report as providing such services to the blacklisted Chinese surveillance companies. None were immediately available for comment.

  In October, some of China’s most valuable surveillance artificial intelligence firms were put on the U.S. Entity List, a move designed to restrict their access to American technology. That is the same blacklist that Huawei sits on.

  Washington alleged that “these entities have been implicated in human rights violations and abuses in the implementation of China’s campaign of repression, mass arbitrary detention, and high-technology surveillance against Uighurs, Kazakhs, and other members of Muslim minority groups” in China’s Xinjiang region.

  The territory has made headlines for its detention and “re-education” camps that reportedly hold an estimated 1.5 million Muslims, many of them for violating what Amnesty International describes as a “highly restrictive and discriminatory” law that China says is designed to combat extremism.

  Even more bizarre, the US companies provided mostly basic services like website and email hosting, raising questions about why these Chinese firms even needed these American partners in the first place.

  According to Top10VPN, some of the services provided by U.S. tech firms include hosting the surveillance firms’ website and emails to authentication methods.

  The head of research at the cybersecurity firm that leaked the report to CNBC said that by providing these “essential” services, the US firms helped their Chinese customers develop “highly invasive surveillance products”…kind of like most free-to-use products released by Google and Facebook?

  “Through providing essential web services to these controversial companies, U.S. firms are playing a part in the proliferation of highly invasive surveillance products that have the potential to undermine human rights around the world,” Simon Migliano, head of research at Top10VPN, said in the report.

  Aside from the big names mentioned above, a number of other smaller US firms were named. Top10VPN said it compiled its report via a combination of techniques including analyzing traffic between certain sites for these Chinese companies.

  Top10VPN said it identified that U.S. firms were involved using a combination of public tools, examining source code of websites and analyzing traffic to those sites.

  The company alleged that Amazon and Google are providing web services for Dahua Technology and Hikvision, two Chinese blacklisted companies. Meanwhile, Microsoft’s services are reportedly being used by SenseTime and Megvii, two of China’s most valuable artificial intelligence start-ups.

  A number of other U.S. technology companies were named, including website authentication and encryption companies Digicert, Lets Encrypt, Entrust and GeoTrust. Domain name hosting firm GoDaddy was on the list as well as cybersecurity company Symantec, which is now known as NortonLifeLock. Stackpath, which works on the delivery of internet content, was also named.

  Twitter and Facebook were also named as providing content delivery network services to Hikvision.

  CNBC has reached out to all the American firms that were named to request for comment on the report. Symantec declined to comment, and CNBC did not hear back from the rest of the companies.

  China’s surveillance firms have been caught up in the tensions between the world’s two largest economies. The administration of President Donald Trump has carried out a campaign against Chinese firms, with Huawei being the most high profile target, that aims to cut off their access to American technology.

  But Top10VPN’s Migliano claimed the company’s report shows a relationship still remains between the U.S. and China’s firms.

  “Despite the Trump administration’s efforts to decouple the American and Chinese technology sectors, the continued presence of American companies in more discreet settings shows that cooperation between the two remains,” Migliano said.

  This is just one more thing to keep in mind next time you see an executive from a big tech firm criticizing President Trump while defending China and the WHO.

  

• The Economic "Reopening" Is A Fake Out
  The Economic “Reopening” Is A Fake Out
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 05/23/2020 – 17:00

  Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

  How does one define an economic “reopening”? I think most people would say that a reopening means that everything goes back to the way it was before the crisis; or at least as close as possible.  Most people would also say that a reopening is something that will last.  Simply declaring “America has reopened” while keeping many restrictions in place in certain parts of the country is a bit of a farce.  And, reopening with the intention of implementing lockdowns again in a matter of weeks without explaining the situation to the public is a scam of the highest order.

  For example, states like New York, California, Illinois and New Jersey have extended their lockdowns; with LA’s extension remaining ambiguous after they initially declared restrictions for another 3 months. New York’s lockdown is extended to the end of May (so far). This is the case in many US states and cities, while rural areas are mostly open. This is being called a “partial reopening”, but is there a purpose behind the uneven approach?

  As I predicted in my article ‘Pandemic And Economic Collapse: The Next 60 Days’, the restrictions will continue in major US population centers while rural areas have mostly opened with much fanfare. The end result of this will be a flood of city dwellers into rural towns looking for relief from more strict lockdown conditions. In about a month, we should expect new viral clusters in places where there was limited transmission. I suggest that before the 4th of July holiday, state governments and the Federal government will be talking about new lockdowns, using the predictable infection spike as an excuse.

  This is happening in Northeast China right now – another resurgence has occurred and 100 million people are now subject to quarantine restrictions. China’s reopening is barely two weeks old, and concerns of infection “flare ups” were widespread when the announcement was made. Now the mainstream media seems to be confused; is China open, or locked down? Of course, we may never know how bad the problem is and was in China as their numbers have been shown to be utterly rigged and suppressed from the beginning, but the point is that the phrase “reopening” is meaningless there, just as it will be meaningless here in the US.

  This is part of the plan. The farce of reopenings does indeed have a purpose. I discuss this in great detail in my article ‘Waves Of Mutilation: Medical Tyranny And The Cashless Society’ published in April. The globalists are clearly the only beneficiaries of this event; with a world-wide surveillance state now openly on the table along with an accelerated shift into digital currency systems, the globalists are either taking advantage of this crisis to push their agenda, or they ENGINEERED the virus and caused the crisis to push their agenda.

  In white papers published by globalists at the Imperial College of London as well as MIT, the plan is openly admitted. They suggest using “waves” of economic openings and then lockdowns to control the spread of the virus. The timelines seem to vary, but in general the models call for a one month open, two months closed cycle. The goal is to deliberately increase infections every couple of months in specific regions of a country, then declare economic shutdown and quarantine measures once the spread reaches a certain level; this is meant to continue until a vaccine is developed, which could take years.

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  When the globalists at MIT say “We are not going back to normal”; this is what they mean. Right now, the general public (at least in some parts of the country) is cheering the reopenings, but what they don’t realize is that the reopenings are an illusion. Restrictions are going to remain in place in many states and cities, while they will be lifted and then re-instituted in others. In fact the situation is going to become much worse over time, by design.

  The next lockdown, whenever it is announced, will be absolutely devastating to the US economy which is already in a downward spiral. The mitigating factors will be how effective central bank stimulus is at stalling the freefall (not very effective so far).  Other factors include the percentage of small businesses that survive the first lockdown and how many jobs those businesses can bring back to the economy. The first lockdown may be survivable for a large percentage of Americans and businesses; the second lockdown will financially destroy all but the most prepared. And make no mistake, there WILL be many more lockdowns over the next couple years.

  In the meantime, international banks like Wells Fargo and JP Morgan have seen to it that small businesses are hit hard by the crisis by funneling bailout money and paycheck loans to their larger clients over the smaller businesses that the money was intended to go to. Of the 300,000 clients of JP Morgan that applied for an emergency loan through the government bailout program, only 18,000 actually received one and many of these clients were NOT small businesses.

  If the cycle of lockdowns continues, small businesses will be wiped off the map. The elites have rigged the economic game; they control where every dollar of the bailout money goes, and many of their corporations are the only institutions that are equipped to survive the onslaught. Some of these companies will go down, but in the long run the goal, in my view, is total centralization of production and distribution.

  This is exactly what happened during the Great Depression when JP Morgan and other major banks devoured thousands of small local banks across the country and removed them as competitors from the system. After the depression, banking was completely centralized into the hands of a select few mega-companies. Today, they are attempting to erase all localized small business competition to international corporations.

  Taking over the business infrastructure of entire nations and removing all independent competition is only one incentive for the lockdowns to continue. There is also the process of acclimating the public to the idea that lockdowns are the “new normal”. While I do see resistance in certain parts of the world, including the US, many countries in Asia and Europe have witnessed a rather sheepish response to the idea of medical tyranny. I also see an immense wildfire of unconstitutional legislation and illegal state measures being rolled out in the US while the public is distracted by financial circumstances and the virus threat.

  Certainly, it appears that most Americans hate the lockdowns. But will they be fooled by the “reopening” into complacency for the next several weeks while the government gets ready to hit them with the next round of restrictions? Will they be so caught off guard they won’t know how to react? Imagine the economic devastation of just one more nationwide lockdown event? It will be carnage, and a lot of hope within the population will be lost.

  This will lead to two possible paths: Submission, or rebellion. Either the majority of the American people will accept the lockdowns as a new fact of everyday life, or they will become so enraged by the destruction of their economy that they will revolt.

  If the intent is to keep the cycle going until a vaccine is introduced as elitist publications assert, then we have a LONG way to go and this first lockdown was child’s play compared to what comes next.

  The excuse for the wave model will be that they need to control and slow the spread of infection over time to avoid overwhelming our medical infrastructure. But this makes very little sense to me at this stage. Perhaps within the first month or two of the pandemic this was somewhat logical, so that we could gauge the threat of the virus. What we know right now is that the virus is at least three times more deadly that the average annual flu; which is something to be concerned about, but not something we should be destroying our economy over.

  Frankly, there’s no logic to the wave model unless the agenda is to destroy the economy. If the goal is to continue infecting the population until everyone has developed an immunity or a vaccine is offered, then why not simply remove all the lockdowns permanently and get it over with now? This would result in far less deaths in the long run compared to economic collapse. If the goal is so-called “herd immunity”, then we can achieve that much faster through viral transmission than waiting years for a vaccine that may or may not work.

  But the elites don’t care about “herd immunity”; what they care about is is control. The vaccine narrative itself is a form of control. You have to wait for the establishment to save you. You have to wait for them to allow the economy to be opened, even for a short period of time, so that you can then be allowed to work or run your business. You have to wait for permission to live your normal life. And, if the elites get their way, you won’t be given permission until you accept immunity passports, tracking apps and a vaccine.

  I will be covering the vaccine issue in a future article, but the underlying message that the public is hearing daily is that you no longer have the power to make decisions for yourself, you must wait for instructions. While the coronavirus is something that should be taken seriously (to a point), the wave model is not an acceptable solution to the problem.

  And while many conservatives are looking to Trump to obstruct lockdowns in the future, I would recommend they not hold their breath.  Trump has flip-flopped many times on these issues, including his position on whether or not lockdowns should be left to the states.  With a cabinet overflowing with globalists and banking elites, I would not put much hope in intervention from the White House.

  Do not be fooled by the reopening. It is not real because it is not meant to last. It is a steam valve to calm public outrage and to condition us to periodic tyranny. The elites believe that we will eventually acclimate to lockdowns as long as we have a reopening to look forward to a couple months down the road. They believe that our tendency to rebel will be suppressed by false hopes that the next reopening will be a permanent reopening. They believe that after 18 months or more of the wave model we will be so desperate for normalcy that we will do anything to get it, including willingly giving up every last ounce of freedom we have left. This is the true purpose of the pandemic.

  *  *  *

  If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch.  Learn more about it HERE.

  

• Tracking The Recovery: What Real-Time Data Says About The State Of The Global Economy
  Tracking The Recovery: What Real-Time Data Says About The State Of The Global Economy
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 05/23/2020 – 16:32

  Where we are in a nutshell: in the past 8 weeks there has been a 38 million rise in US unemployment coupled with a $10 trillion forecast loss in global GDP through 2021; this however has been offset by $4 trillion of asset purchases by central banks resulting in a $15 trillion surge in global equity market cap.

  But now that with every passing day more of the global economy is reopening as the coronavirus crisis fades away (at least until a second wave emerges), what investors and ordinary people care about is not where we are but where we are going. To answer that question, here is an detailed overview of the impact of Covid-19 on the global economy through various real-time, high frequency data compiled by JPM as it appears right now, weeks if not months before it makes it into official “adjusted” economic reports.

  First, a snapshot of COVID-19 infection count and regional spread:

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  The latest data on-ground mobility data suggests that there is a long way before normal.

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  While air traffic is dismal, here too there a slight rebound in mostly non-commercial flights; commercial air traffic remains a disaster, however.

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  While credit card spending has seen a modest rebound, and consumer activity is clearly starting to recover, restaurant bookings in the US remains dismal.

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  Some more snapshots of consumer activity looking at retail traffic, footfalls and deliveries.

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  While hotel, box office and transportation use remains dismal, supermarkets are going strong. Unfortunately for those who believe Facebook that ad spending has normalized, they are in for a shock.

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  The labor market, unfortunately, remains an unmitigated disaster:

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  Both industrial and manufacturing activity in the US has been crippled, but it is starting to rebound.

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  So how about China, after all it’s supposedly all “fixed” now. Unfortunately, the real-time data paints a vastly different picture.

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  While coal consumption has recovered, power use in the epicenter of Hubei province, remains roughly half of normal.

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  In Europe, it’s – as usual – a tale of two halves: the northern nations where things are largely normal, and the Mediterranean states where the pain is largely concentrated.

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  Finally, some mobility charts, first in the UK…

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  … and then Europe.

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• Portuguese Enjoy "First State-Sanctioned Beach Day" Since COVID-19 Outbreak Started: Live Updates
  Portuguese Enjoy “First State-Sanctioned Beach Day” Since COVID-19 Outbreak Started: Live Updates
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 05/23/2020 – 16:28

  Summary:

  • Beaches reopen in Portugal as lockdown slowly eased
  • Kuwait raises fine for not wearing facemask to 16k
  • WaPo cites study claiming 24 states at risk for ‘second wave’
  • Italy ways reopening different regions at different speeds
  • Many more young people dying in Brazil, developing world vs. US
  • PM Johnson pressured to fire top advisor for ‘violating’ quarantine rules
  • Japan to completely lift state of emergency nationwide on Monday
  • Cali court upholds state order to close churches
  • Brazil, Russia in No.2, No.3 spots after US
  • Russia case total tops 335k
  • New York reports fewer than 100 deaths for 1st time since March
  • Long Island might reopen as soon as Wednesday
  • Nearly 9% of prisoners in Michigan test positive

  * * *

  Update (1415ET): While millions of Americans spend MDW trapped inside, the Portuguese are enjoying their first weekend back at the beach.

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  Reuters reports that families and friends flocked to the country’s beaches with surfboards and picnic baskets in tow on Saturday for the first “officially state sanctioned beach weekend” of the year.

  Portugal, with its 10 million pop., reported just 30,500 cases, and 1,300 deaths. In both cases, it’s outbreak wasn’t nearly as devastating as neighboring Spain.

  Portugal’s state of emergency began on March 18, and after six weeks, the government started lifting restrictions in 15-day intervals earlier this month.

  Beachgoers interviewed by Reuters claimed that “most [people] are behaving” though, of course, they managed to find someone who went on the record with their worries about the possibility of the lockdown being reimposed in June.

  “It’s so great to see the sea and get some sun after two months,” said Catarina, who arrived to Carcavelos Beach, half an hour from Lisbon, at 9 a.m. with her husband and daughter.

  But despite her relief, Catarina wasn’t sure this newfound freedom could last long.

  “Most are behaving … but there are a lot of groups, and that’s what causes contagion, isn’t it? I don’t know, by next month I think we’ll all be back in our homes,” she said.

  The government, for its part, has promised to continue with the reopening so long as the numbers keep falling. So far, instances where lockdowns have been reimposed are rare – but it has happened.

  * * *

  Update (1300ET): As the outbreak in Iran wanes, Gulf States, including tiny Kuwait, are having a surprisingly hard time keeping the virus from spreading, despite strict curfews and mandatory mask laws. On Saturday, Kuwait recorded 900 new cases of the novel coronavirus, raising the country’s infection tally to 20,464, the Kuwaiti news agency KUNA reported. The Health Ministry also announced 10 more deaths from COVID-19, raising Kuwait’s death toll to 148. Meanwhile, not wearing a facemask is punishable by jail, or a fine up to $16k.

  Meanwhile as the number of new cases in Italy ticked higher, the government is weighing whether the next phase in Italy’s relaxation of emergency measures may proceed at different speeds in various zones, with some northern areas temporarily excluded from a reopening.

  * * *

  We begin what looks to be a dreary Memorial Day Weekend with a new study amplified by the Washington Post claiming that roughly half of US states actually remain at risk for a serious rebound, as critics seize on the jump in new cases seen in Texas as justification that the state re-opened too early, even as the measures remain broadly popular within the state.

  Georgia, too, has largely avoided the disastrous consequences promised by Dr. Fauci and many of the doctors and scientists regularly appearing as ‘independent analysts’ on MSNBC and CNN (while the doctors and scientists on Fox News largely praised what has turned out to be a winning political gamble by Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp.

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  A new model produced by researchers at Imperial College London estimated that the “R” figure – an estimate of the rate at which the virus is spreading in a given county or state – is above 1 (meaning the virus is still expanding) in 24 states. As some might remember, Imperial College’s models have already been proven to be flawed (not just incorrect, but critics have taken issue with certain parameters they argued were unrealistic).

  Even WaPo acknowledges that the risk of a second wave of infections projected by the model fails to factor in social distancing, the wearing of masks, and other factors that might impact the spread of the virus. As Nicolas Kristof said earlier this week, “epidemiology is full of puzzles”.

  In New York, Gov Cuomo announced during Saturday’s press briefing…

  Holding a briefing with updates on #Coronavirus. Watch Live: https://t.co/6om3Qm8ZCA

  — Andrew Cuomo (@NYGovCuomo) May 23, 2020

  …that for the first time since March, his state has reported fewer than 100 virus-linked deaths, with 84 confirmed over the last 24 hours. That’s compared with 109 yesterday, as hospitalizations and ICU admissions also continued to decline.

  “It’s a sign we’re making real progress and I feel good about that,” Mr Cuomo said, adding that earlier in the crisis a doctor had told him “if you can get under 100, I think you can breathe a sigh of relief.”

  Cuomo said during the briefing that Long Island – ie Suffolk and Nassau Counties – could start reopening as soon as Wednesday as he pleaded with more younger people to get tested.

  Over in the UK, where lockdowns have been much more strictly enforced than in the US, PM Boris Johnson is facing pressure to fire one of his most trusted advisors, Dominic Cummings, after Cummings purportedly violated the lockdown rules (according to reports in the famously pugnacious British tabloid press) to visit his parents. Cummings insists that he acted “reasonably” and didn’t violate the rules.

  With Japan’s state of emergency nearing its end as the number of new coronavirus cases dwindles to mere dozens per day, scientists are wondering how PM Shinzo Abe managed to reap so much success with so littler effort. After imposing the order months after the rest of the US, Europe and China, Japan’s “State of Emergency” was always fairly lax since the constitution can’t prohibit businesses from operating or Japanese people from leaving their homes.

  According to Japanese media reports, Abe is planning to lift the last remnants of his state of emergency order, which mostly affected the country’s worst-hit areas like Tokyo and nearby prefectures, as well as Hokkaido.

  Per the Japan Times:

  After observing the situation over the weekend and hearing opinions from health experts, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will formally decide what to do with the emergency for Tokyo and Hokkaido, as well as Kanagawa, Chiba and Saitama prefectures, the last remaining areas under the measure among the country’s 47 prefectures, officials said Friday.

  As a reminder, here’s how Japan’s approach compared with the US and Europe:

  No restrictions were placed on residents’ movements, and businesses from restaurants to hairdressers stayed open. And even as nations were exhorted to “test, test, test,” Japan has tested just 0.2% of its population — one of the lowest rates among developed countries. Yet the curve has been flattened, with deaths well below 1,000, by far the fewest among the G7 nations. While the possibility of a more severe second wave is ever-present, Japan is set to leave its emergency in just weeks, and likely to exit completely as early as Monday.

  As Japan prepares to exit its state of emergency and shift its focus to reviving its moribund economy and preparing for next year;s “2020 Games”, China reportedly confirmed zero new coronavirus cases for the entire mainland yesterday, according to data released Saturday morning in Beijing. This is the first time the country hasn’t reported a single new case – foreign or domestically infected – since the beginning of the outbreak.

  Meanwhile, officials in Wuhan told Reuters that the CCP had conducted 1.5 million coronavirus tests on Friday, a staggering number, putting the city well on its way to testing all 11 million residents over an outbreak that local officials insist involved just 6 cases.

  As we noted yesterday, Brazil is now home to the second-largest outbreak besides the US, though, given the lax containment measures applied across the country and the fact that testing is only just ramping up, many suspect that the real total probably is far higher than that of the US.

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  In the latest sign of just how devastating the outbreak has become in Brazil, where health-care resources are being increasingly stretched, and in some areas – particularly in Amazonas, where reports of mass graves and corpses languishing in homes and on sidewalks have made their way into the western press, just like the stories of the dead bodies littering the streets in parts of Ecuador.

  After surpassing Russia yesterday, Brazil and Russia now hold the No. 2 and No. 3 spots for most confirmed cases:

  One indication of just how widespread the virus has already become in Brazil is the surprising number of young, healthy people who are experiencing severe symptoms requiring hospitalization, and often resulting in death. The rates of healthy young people succumbing to the virus are much higher in the developing world, where access to potentially life-saving care is more limited, as WaPo reported

  In Brazil, 15% of #covid deaths have been people under 50 -a rate more than 10x greater than in Italy or Spain. In Mexico, nearly 25% of the dead have been between 25 & 49. In India, officials reported this month that nearly half of the dead were <than 60. https://t.co/48lJM6rL5y

  — Athalia Christie (@AthaliaChristie) May 23, 2020

  Circling back to the US, as President Trump called for all states to immediately allow the resumption of church services, a federal appeals court on Friday declined to lift California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s temporary restrictions on in-person church services during the coronavirus pandemic, with the court ruling they did not selectively target religious activities. We suspect a more conservative federal judge will reverse this ruling somewhere along the line.

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  As we pointed out earlier this week, thanks to Brazil, the US is no longer the biggest contributor to the number of new cases reported each day.

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  Source: CNBC

  As we also reported yesterday, Dr. Birx said the Washington DC metro area has the highest rate of infected people in the country, the latest example of how the coronavirus can be confusing. Washington DC and the surrounding area have imposed some of the tightest and longest restrictions in the entire country, yet the rate remains the highest, much lower than the rate in Georgia, which has aggressively reopened.

  District of Columbia (including northern #Virginia and two #Maryland counties) is the top metro area hot spot, according to Dr. Birx. Also concerned about Chicago.

  — Steve Herman (@W7VOA) May 22, 2020

  “A dramatic decline across the states” in percent positive per state, says Dr. Birx. #CoronavirusUSA pic.twitter.com/qTWnkLepxc

  — Steve Herman (@W7VOA) May 22, 2020

  The coach of Georgetown men’s basketball team, Patrick Ewing, has tested positive for the virus, the schools said.

  Finally, in Michigan, nearly 9% of prisoners in the state DoC system have tested positive for the virus already, with thousands of tests waiting to process.

  

• Trump: "I Have A Chance To Break The Deep State"
  Trump: “I Have A Chance To Break The Deep State”
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 05/23/2020 – 16:10

  In an exclusive interview set to air Sunday, President Trump tells Sharyl Attkisson that he believes he is making inroads in draining the Washington swamp.

  “If it keeps going the way it’s going, I have a chance to break the deep state. It’s a vicious group of people.”

  – President Trump on “Full Measure with Sharyl Attkisson”

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  Also in the interview:

  • The president calls churches, synagogues, mosques and other religious institutions “essential services” and says they must be allowed to open

  • Sharyl asks if someone review his tweets before he sends them out

  • Trump weighs in on the biggest strength and weakness of Joe Biden

  • He talks about the latest allegations about FBI misconduct and spying on his campaign

  • Sharyl ask about mixed messages the government is sending on the anti-malaria drug, hydroxychloroquine

  • She also asks President Trump how he can press to investigate allegation about Biden and Ukraine— without appearing to be doing the same thing Democrats did to him in 2016.

  Here’s how to watch…

  

• Heat Wave To Hit California As Power Prices Set To Soar 
  Heat Wave To Hit California As Power Prices Set To Soar 
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 05/23/2020 – 15:45

  Southern California is descending into an inferno once more, the third one of the year, with elevated temperatures through the end of next week, reported LA Times. 

  Eric Boldt, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service (NWS), said temperatures along the coast are expected to be in the mid-70s for much of the weekend. He said the mercury will jump significantly on Monday, some areas could see triple-digit highs, including San Fernando Valley, San Gabriel Valley, and Inland Empire.

  Boldt said the heatwave will likely peak Wednesday but linger through the week:

  “These high temperatures are going to continue pretty much through next week,” he said. “We might see a little relief toward Friday and Saturday, but it seems like the rest of May is going to be warm.”

  For much of Southern California, temperatures will be above normal through the weekend into early next week. 

  NWS Los Angeles reports temperatures in the region will be around the mid-80s on Memorial Day, with cities more inland, such as Pasadena could see 90 degrees. For desert regions like Palm Springs, the mercury could climb to triple-digits next week. 

  Get ready for period of hot weather across much of SW Cal next week. Hottest areas will be interior locations including the Antelope Valley where an Excessive Heat Watch has been issued valid from Tue afternoon thru early Thu eve. Triple digit heat expected. #cawx #Socal #LAheat pic.twitter.com/qi7lfWLzJw

  — NWS Los Angeles (@NWSLosAngeles) May 23, 2020

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  Down the coast, the weather service issued an excessive heat watch for Coachella Valley, San Diego County Deserts and San Gorgonio Pass, indicating that triple-digit highs are expected next week:

  …EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING…

  * WHAT…Dangerously hot conditions. High temperatures 104 to 109 degrees Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday will be the hottest days with high temperatures of 108 to 112 degrees expected.

  * WHERE…Coachella Valley, San Diego County Deserts and San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning.

  * WHEN…From Tuesday afternoon through Friday evening. * IMPACTS…Extreme heat will significantly increase the potential for heat related illnesses, particularly for sensitive groups and those working or participating in outdoor activities.

  🔥 Hot weather incoming next week 🔥

  A long-duration heat event is in store for the valleys and deserts next week, with Tue-Thu as the hottest days. The lower deserts could see highs up to 113 degrees on Wed/Thu.

  Stay cool and hydrated, especially if you will be outside! #cawx pic.twitter.com/xY0gYoHaan

  — NWS San Diego (@NWSSanDiego) May 22, 2020

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  SoCal folks will have to flock to the coast to get some relief for the next seven days. Some beaches in Southern California have opened up with new social distancing rules (and by the way, some residents are not happy). 

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  Rising temperatures are expected across the state through end month

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  Average temperatures are going to be way above normal for much of the lower West Coast into the first week of June. 

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  A surge in temperatures suggests western cooling degree day (CDD), a measurement designed to quantify the demand for energy needed to cool buildings, is expected to jump above trend on May 24 and peak on May 28, returning to below-average trend in the first week of June. 

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  Rising western CDD means average daily electrical load and hourly load forecasts for Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC), which includes Northwest Power Pool, Southwest Reserve Sharing Group, Rocky Mountain Reserve Group, California-Mexico Power Area (without Mexico), are expected to see above-trend demand as people turn on their air conditioners. 

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  Energy demand is set to skyrocket in the West because of the incoming heatwave — power prices will do the same.

  

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• Buchanan: What Does Winning Mean In A Forever War?
  Buchanan: What Does Winning Mean In A Forever War?
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 05/22/2020 – 23:45

  Authored by Patrick Buchanan via Buchanan.org,

  When a Wall Street Journal editorial warned this week against any precipitous U.S. withdrawal that might imperil our gains in Afghanistan, an exasperated President Trump shot back:

  “Could someone please explain to them that we have been there for 19 years. … and except at the beginning, we never really fought to win.”

  Is that true? Did we “never really” fight to win during our 19-year war in Afghanistan, except when we first ousted the Taliban in 2001?

  At one point in this longest American war against al-Qaida and the Taliban, Barack Obama surged 100,000 U.S. troops into Afghanistan.

  The issue here is with the terminology.

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  In the forever wars of the Middle East, what does “winning” mean?

  To those of us who grew up in the mid-20th century, victory was Gen. MacArthur standing on the deck of the battleship Missouri in Tokyo Bay as top-hatted Japanese diplomats signed the articles of surrender.

  Victory was unmistakable and irreversible.

  Five years after V-J day, however, came Korea, a war that lasted three years and ended in deadlock, stalemate and a truce along the 38th parallel, where the North-South war had begun in June of 1950.

  Vietnam also came to be called a “no-win war.”

  Though U.S. troops never lost a major battle, and every provincial capital was in Saigon’s hands when we departed in 1973, the United States is said to have “lost the war” when the North Vietnamese army overran the South and Saigon in the spring of 1975.

  That was a geostrategic defeat but not a military defeat.

  America’s problem, in this century, lies in our concept of “winning.”

  While U.S. military forces can crush any Middle East adversary, as we showed in Afghanistan in 2001 and Iraq in 2003, we have been unable to realize the fruits of the victories our armed forces produced.

  We have failed to reorient the defeated nations to our way of thinking. We have failed to win the peace.

  While we can defeat our enemies in the air and on the seas and in cyberspace, we cannot persuade them to embrace secular democracy and its values any more than we can convert them to Christianity.

  John Locke means nothing to these people. As for our Bill of Rights, why would devout Muslims, who believe there is but one God, Allah, and that Muhammad is his only Prophet, tolerate the preaching of heresies in their countries that can cause Muslims to lose their souls?

  Millions of Muslims are familial, tribal, nationalistic, resistant to foreign intervention and proudly anti-Enlightenment.

  With our “democracy crusades,” we have been trying to conquer and convert people who do not wish to be converted. Moreover, we lack the patience and perseverance to change or convert them.

  As imperialists, we Americans are conspicuous failures.

  Moreover, with us, the national interest inevitably asserts itself.

  When it comes to spending lives and treasure indefinitely we find we have no vital interest in whether these lands we occupy are ruled by monarchs, democrats, dictators or demagogues, and we lack the staying power to occupy these countries until they accept our ideas and ideals.

  If they don’t attack us, why do we not just leave them be?

  Our enemies in the Middle East do not defeat our military. They outlast us. They apparently have an inexhaustible supply of volunteers willing to give up their lives in suicide attacks. They are willing to fight on and trade casualties endlessly. They do not subscribe to our rules of war.

  They tire us out, and, eventually, we give up and go home.

  They refuse to surrender and submit because it is their beliefs, their values, their faith, their traditions, their tribe, their God, their culture, their civilization, their honor that they believe they are fighting for in what is, after all, their land, not ours.

  They are not trying to change us. We are trying to change them. And they wish to remain who they are.

  Woodrow Wilson famously declared of our neighbors to the south, “I am going to teach the Latin American republics to elect good men!”

  Wilson forgot the kernel of truth in the ethnic slur of his era, that you cannot grow bananas and democracy on the same piece of land.

  If it is a contest between armed forces, America wins. We can impose our will on the country but cannot win their assent. They resist until we tire of trying to educate them.

  Historically, the Afghans are fundamentalist, tribal and impervious to foreign intervention.

  What will the Taliban do when we leave?

  They will not give up their dream of again ruling the Afghan nation and people. And they will fight until they have achieved that goal and their idea of victory: dominance.

  And if 100,000 Americans fighting beside the Afghan army could not force them to surrender, then why should they settle for half a loaf and accept a compromise now?

  

• Khashoggi's Children 'Pardon' Father's Killers, Which Means All Could Get Off Free
  Khashoggi's Children 'Pardon' Father's Killers, Which Means All Could Get Off Free
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 05/22/2020 – 23:25

  It’s being slammed as a “parody of justice” – but what should we really expect out of the ‘kingdom of horrors’ – whose leadership (which has all but admitted to the state-ordered murder and dismemberment of a well-known journalist) was long ago re-embraced with open arms by both Washington and Wall Street after a brief one year period of semi-isolation? 

  “The son of murdered Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi has released a statement via Twitter forgiving his father’s killers,” Al Jazeera reports. “In the statement, posted on Friday, Salah Khashoggi said his family pardons those who took the reporter’s life in 2018 when he visited Saudi Arabia’s consulate in Istanbul.”

  And yes, in Saudi law this has significant and direct legal ramifications: “Under Islamic law, death sentences in Saudi Arabia can be commuted if the victim’s family pardons the perpetrator, but it is not clear whether that will happen in this case,” explains Al Jazeera further.

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  It’s set off a firestorm of controversy both inside and outside the kingdom, after neither the deceased Khashoggi – a Washington Post columnist killed and dismembered on October 2, 2018 at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul – nor his surviving fiance, will never see any level of justice, apparently. Those ordering the hit, which subsequent CIA and UN investigations found went straight to the top – no less than MbS himself – have gotten off scot-free. 

  Needless to say this appears all too convenient, and all couched in religious garb:

  “In this blessed night of the blessed month (of Ramadan) we remember God’s saying: If a person forgives and makes reconciliation, his reward is due from Allah,” Khashoggi’s son Salah Khashoggi said Friday

  “Therefore, we the sons of the Martyr Jamal Khashoggi announce that we pardon those who killed our father, seeking reward God almighty” he added.

  Again this has legal ramifications, and can potentially ensure the higher-ups that ordered the murder are free from any future legal punishment (some lower-level operatives were previously scape-goated of course, and issued death sentences in what many considered a highly dubious “nothing to see here” court proceeding).

  Khashoggi’s fiance, Hatice Cengiz, didn’t buy the “forgiveness”: she responded on Twitter Friday, saying “nobody has the right to pardon the killers”.

  Jamal was killed inside his country’s consulate while getting the docs to complete our marriage. The killers came from Saudi with premeditation to lure, ambush & kill him. Nobody has the right to pardon the killers. We will not pardon the killers nor those who ordered the killing

  — Hatice Cengiz / خديجة (@mercan_resifi) May 22, 2020

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  A separate statement from activists and Saudi rights campaigners spelled out: “We reject the use of Saudi authorities of some of Khashoggi’s family members to whitewash the country’s judiciary and dwarfing Khashoggi’s case.”

  Given Salah Khashoggi and other family members reside in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, they were accused of not speaking freely. It certainly has the whiff of an orchestrated state-PR campaign with MbS as the ultimate beneficiary. Likely political leaders in the West, back in MbS’ pocket, will consider to “pardon” ultimately “good enough”.

  This is Mohammad Bin Salam’s message to US President Trump: you can no longer blackmail me; now fuck off. #SaudiArabia #USA

  Jamal Khashoggi’s son Salah says family ‘forgives’ killers @AJENews https://t.co/wWX863pMO5

  — Elijah J. Magnier (@ejmalrai) May 22, 2020

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  As we underscored last year, it’ll be business as usual again: A year later we now know more about the Saudi state-sanctioned murder, with comprehensive investigative reports by the UN and CIA pointing the finger directly at MbS for ordering the grizzly hit and dismemberment, and though last year’s “Davos in the Desert” was boycotted by a number of high profile companies and CEOs, this year’s MbS-hosted investment forum in Riyadh appears business as usual once again, a mere one short year later. 

  

• COVID-19 Has Replaced Osama Bin Laden As The Fall Guy For Lost Liberties
  COVID-19 Has Replaced Osama Bin Laden As The Fall Guy For Lost Liberties
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 05/22/2020 – 23:05

  Authored by Robert Bridge via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

  The government and media have dumped at the doorstep of the coronavirus many of the political, economic and social afflictions that are now ravaging much of the global population. In reality, they need to point the finger at themselves.

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  As the mainstream media saturates the airwaves with a daily overdose of coronavirus fear porn, the majority of journalists have given their governments a free pass to enact any draconian measure they see fit. From the closure of public beaches to forbidding power boats on waterways, the insanity seems to have no limits or logic. And as the media would have us believe, it was the coronavirus that enacted these measures, as opposed to living, breathing, unthinking humans.

  Anti lockdown Protest went well. #Antilockdown #COVID19 pic.twitter.com/ArG1GDExnb

  — Dave (@rundaverun93) May 16, 2020

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  What dirty deeds does the new and improved villain of our times stand accused of?

  First and foremost, the coronavirus singlehandedly destroyed the global economy as only ‘essential’ businesses may continue to operate. Thus, thousands of small businesses have been ordered shuttered, de facto destroyed, while countless numbers of people around the world have been ordered to ‘shelter-in-place’ with dwindling financial reserves.

  Again, this wanton destruction of a large swath of the economy is not due to bad government decision-making, at least according to the media, but Covid-19.

  “Jobless claims jump another 4.4 million — 26 million Americans have lost their jobs to the coronavirus,” reported MarketWatch.

  “It could take two years for the economy to recover from the coronavirus pandemic,” screamed another headline.

  Perhaps it was also the coronavirus that decided that it would make perfect sense to keep abortion clinics and state-owned liquor stores open during the pandemic, while shutting down houses of worship and gun shops. Clearly, the coronavirus is an equitable and non-partisan distributor of pain and suffering!

  As was the case when battling the evil forces of terrorism (which has been strangely quiet lately, by the way), simply uttering ‘coronavirus’ has the same numbing effect as reciting the name ‘Osama bin Laden.’ It justifies every means to an end – up to and including the destruction of civil liberties – without the need for any public debate on the matter. This is reminiscent of the hysteria, complete with mysterious anthrax attacks, which accompanied passage of the PATRIOT Act, the freedom-killing legislation that was rammed through Congress in the weeks following the terrorist attacks of 9/11 without a formal reading by lawmakers. And just like post-9/11, when people question the draconian coronavirus measures they are vilified and accused of being ‘conspiracy theorists’ and even ‘terrorists.’

  The result of millions of people struggling to survive without employment and amid ‘shelter-in-place’ orders is a huge spike in the number of deaths from alcohol, drugs and suicide.

  “We see very troubling signs across the nation,” Dr. Elinore McCance-Katz, assistant secretary at Department of Health and Human Services and head of the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Administration, told USAToday.

  “There’s more substance abuse, more overdoses, more domestic violence and neglect and abuse of children.

  In other words, the death and destruction from the draconian measures enacted to defeat the coronavirus, which never came remotely close to being as deadly as the experts predicted it would be, will prove deadlier than the disease itself.

  Nearly 5,000 people took part in a rally against #coronavirus restrictions in #Stuttgart on Saturday, #Germany‘s largest such protest over the weekend.

  On March 11, #Merkel said that the #lockdown measures were necessary in order “to win time in the fight against the virus.” pic.twitter.com/dP5egTNKBV

  — Ruptly (@Ruptly) May 17, 2020

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  And the asinine regulations are not just being implemented in glorious nation America. Across the pond, Germans, for example, have watched in horror as their beloved Oktoberfest, the annual beer-drinking festival that brings in an estimated 1 billion dollars to the local economy, has been cancelled for the first time since World War II. That is something that not even Al Qaeda in its heyday could accomplish. Now it is all kaput as some 1,600 breweries in Germany are forced to lay off workers and slashed production as dire economic conditions roll across the entire EU. Of course, all of this is the fault of the coronavirus.

  #SocialDistancing for #pubs and #terras #horeca #recycling #pool #noodles #Corona #covid19 pic.twitter.com/bwY3ANOb2D

  — Silke Conrad (@SilkeCo) May 15, 2020

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  And much like the post 9/11 days, coronavirus has its own share of ‘covidiots,’ with people going to bizarre, even fascist lengths to enforce social-distancing guidelines. Back in the ‘sane’ days when the world was trembling at the mere sound of ‘Osama,’ some people actually sealed their homes in plastic and duct tape to protect against an anthrax attack that never materialized. Today, masked drivers are literally passing out behind the wheel, inside of locked cars, due to a lack of oxygen, if not brains.

  But unfortunately, those aren’t the sort of ‘lawbreakers’ that the ‘Karens’ of our days will be snitching on, exactly as they were doing as we were trying to ‘bend the curve’ on terrorism. These days, members of the citizen Gestapo are peering through closed blinds, counting whether or not the neighbors have more than 10 people in their homes, which is enough to justify the police entering your home in New Zealand without a warrant. The dawn of this ‘snitch state’ largely began in the aftermath of 9/11 psychosis.

  Now that the world is staring down the double-barrel of yet another economic depression and all of its attendant symptoms, fear and hysteria continues to be in the driver’s seat.

  Yet instead of being afraid of bad decisions by bad government officials, the same individuals who led the world on a wild goose chase known as the ‘war on terror,’ we continue to heed their advice, while believing that the coronavirus is responsible for the mayhem.

  It is not, no more than Osama bin Laden was ‘responsible’ for the destruction of our civil liberties post-9/11. We did that all by ourselves through our passive consent.

  

• US Births Hit 35-Year Low; Corona-Pessimism Could Ensure Permanent Japanification
  US Births Hit 35-Year Low; Corona-Pessimism Could Ensure Permanent Japanification
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 05/22/2020 – 22:45

  The number of children born in the United States has hit a 35-year low, new federal data presents, suggesting America could sink to Japan-level numbers not just in capital markets but in a baby bust. The fresh data points to the great likelihood the post-Great Recession decline in births is to stay permanent.

  “About 3.75 million babies were born in the U.S. in 2019, down 1% from the prior year,” WSJ summarizes of new stats from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Center for Health Statistics produced Wednesday. “The general fertility rate fell 2% to 58.2 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44.” This is the “lowest level since the government began tracking the figure in 1909.”

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  Birthrates were down for all ages and races, especially the teen birthrate which has fallen a whopping 73% since it peaked in 1991, with the exception of women in their early 40s – where there was an uptick – suggesting that couples are waiting longer to start families.

  “The total fertility rate — a snapshot of the average number of babies a woman would have over her lifetime — ticked down to 1.7 in 2019, a slight decline from the previous year [of 1.72] and another record low,” WSJ continues. 

  “In almost all years since 1971, that rate has been below the level of 2.1 needed for the population to replace itself, without accounting for immigration.”

  “Women are still having children,” study co-author and statistician Brady Hamilton said. “They’re just holding off until a later point in time until they establish their education and establish their career.”

  Given the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, predicted to last over at least the next few years, the WSJ report forecasts a declining national birthrate similar to the period of the Great Depression.

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  On that point, The Hill also underscores that— 

  Since the recession, the birth rate has risen year-over-year only once, in 2014. Now, demographers tracking the declining birth rate say the trend is beginning to look like a longer-term pattern.

  “The fact that births and fertility continued to decline in 2019 despite the booming economy suggests that this is a permanent shift to a lower fertility regime in the U.S.,” said Cheryl Russell, a demographer and contributing editor to the journal American Demographics.

  It appears millennials, generally less financially secure than generations before, are on the whole moving much slower in establishing families. 

  Recall that in 2008 when Japan’s birth rate fell to 1.34 average number children a woman had in her lifetime, drastic social policies were undertaken on the realization of the long-term economic stagnation or worse would result if the trend weren’t immediately reversed (combined with the “super-aged” nation having over 20% of its population older than 65). 

  In 2008, Japan’s birth rate was so low that workers were told to go home early and use their remaining energy to procreate. pic.twitter.com/BTXPqLm5b7

  — Fact Always (@factalwayz) May 19, 2020

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  In the early weeks of much of America going into lockdown amid widespread state and local ‘stay at home’ orders, there was much public discourse, jokes, and media expectation of a ‘quarantine baby boom’.

  This is still a possibility of course, but most analysts predict the historic skyrocketing unemployment and negative long-term economic prospects will be the driving factor in continued low births.

  

• Coronavirus Conspiracies
  Coronavirus Conspiracies
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 05/22/2020 – 22:25

  Authored by Israel Shamir via The Unz Review,

  I like conspiracy theories; they attempt to inject meaning into otherwise meaningless sets of assorted facts. They bring Logos into our life, as our friend E. Michael Jones would say.

  An enemy of conspiracy theories would write in the New York Timesdenouncing Sir Isaac Newton as a notorious conspiracy theorist: out of totally disconnected facts (apple fall, water pumping, artillery shelling) he concocted the conspiracy theory of gravitation claiming that bodies are mutually attracted proportionally to their mass.

  This is obviously false, he would say, as you can observe at any beach; if there should be a formula, it is that of inverse proportionality. Slim girls and boys attract much more than obese body-positives, and mutuality does not come into this equation. Still the gravitation hoax of Newton has been taught in schools.

  In NYTimese, this is simply “spreading baseless lies and debunked nonsense about the false rumours”.

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  The great coronavirus panic of AD 2020 with its enormous consequences is an event that calls for a sensible explanation. How could a minor disease killing an infinitesimal part of population (0.000045) had caused the collapse of civilisation as we knew it? Why is a civilisation that robustly weathered the killing of the flower of its youth in its prime on the fields of Verdun and Stalingrad unable to survive the demise of a few superannuated men such that it withdrew into self-isolation, while giving up the faith, love of neighbour, opposition to old enemies and then destroying its economy, education and reproductivity?

  One wants to find a conspiracy to explain it away. Who did it? Who locked billions under house arrest; who caused men and women to view each other as a source of mortal danger instead of potential friends or even lovers; who turned churches, mosques and synagogues into empty and unneeded buildings? There are many forces that enjoyed the accompanying windfall, and quite a few were ready for it for a long time. But there is a non-conspiratorial explanation: perhaps we experience such a systemic shift that no single force would be able to achieve; a systemic shift of magnitude unseen for hundreds of years.

  We are still in an early stage of the ongoing transformation; we still hope it will be over in the summer, or at least at autumn, or next winter, but most probably our life as we knew is over. Can we blame it on the virus, even if it was manufactured in the evil labs of the US or China, as has been convincingly suggested by Ron Unz? There are millions of viruses, and mankind had managed to live with them all. There was no reason to freak out and destroy our civilisation for another virus.

  Imagine a man who received a Nigerian letter, promising him millions; and he sold his house, took a loan, sent his wife and children to beg on the street in order to collect the Nigerian millions. We wouldn’t say, “the Nigerian letter caused his downfall”, because so many people had received Nigerian letters, but only one man acted like he did. No doubt, the letter was a nasty attempt to defraud, but the problem was in him, not in the Nigerian letter.

  The previous shift of such magnitude occurred in late 18th century; it is called the Industrial Revolution. Then the factory owners had begun to replace their skilled labour with inexpensive machines, and the workers were losing their jobs, livelihoods and self-esteem. In 1811, the workers formed the Luddite movement. The Luddites would break into factories and smash textile machines. It lasted until 1816, when the movement ran out of steam. The workers were defeated, (a lot of them escaped to America), and the British bourgeoisie prospered. It took many years until the workers regained some of their previous positions in society, mainly due to the threat of Communist revolution.

  Now we are coming to the new Digital Revolution, with workers being replaced by smart computers and an AI future. Millions of office workers already function as a human interface to the computer. You may have noticed this as you talk with them: they are trained to avoid making decisions; they say sentences that were scripted for them, and the decisions are made by the computer that was programmed to do their master’s will. As lockdown had forced millions to communicate with computers directly, a lot of workers became superfluous.

  The process of shedding millions of workers in the existing economic system is likely to be painful for the unemployed. The virus-blamed lockdown and digital control allows the owners of the digital companies to carry out the revolution with minimal risks for them. What would need an army and police involvement against riotous unemployed workers, can be achieved with greater ease under threat of the pandemic. The economy will be modernized and made more efficient. Alas, for us this script presages the fate of highly qualified weavers in 18th century England, even if we shall avoid the total AI takeover Terminator-style.

  Probably the scariest piece of news is not about the numbers of “infected”. It is a meaningless word, for there are persistent carriers who do not succumb to disease; the vast majority of the “infected” are asymptomatic, meaning they aren’t sick and aren’t infectious; the number of “infected” is in direct proportion to the number of tests; the tests are dubious at best, and none is verified by the methods accepted in pre-corona medicine, while the methodology approved and enforced by the WHO can’t be described as scientific. It is not about deaths, for we do not experience more deaths than in 2018. Moreover, in many countries, notably in France and in Norway there are 30% fewer deaths in certain weeks of April and May in this year than in the last year.

  The scariest piece of news is that Zoom is worth more than the seven biggest airlines. These airlines with their accumulated labour (millions of working hours, hundreds of thousands of employees, highly trained pilots, masses of sophisticated equipment) just can’t be worth as much as a job done in a month by a few programmers and which can be done anew in a month. Money and stock market prices are useful tools if they measure human efforts; they do not that anymore. What began with bankers earning more money in a day than a hundred qualified workers and engineers in their lifetime, ended with the hi-tech lords earning more than a million workers in their lifetime. It means that Money had banked on the Digital Economy, a Union made in Hell, while the real economy came up for grabs. Money decided that we won’t fly anymore. They, the new masters, will fly in their private jets; the era of mass access is over. You will get satisfied with Zoom and PornHub, instead of the real thing.

  Added to this the negative oil future price and the emission centres issuing more and more money, trying to smother the fire with gasoline, and you will get a picture of the coming world. There is probably no place for you and me in this world.

  Is the great AI update of technology an objective need, and will it eventually bring good for mankind? Perhaps. But it does not mean the process should be drafted by Money and the Digital Economy, explained by MSM, justified by bio-horrors and carried on at public expense. It has to be done differently if we want to preserve the achievements of the long (1945-2020) peace stretch.

  And now we can return to conspiracy theories. If the virus is the great destroyer as presented, why didn’t poor countries with little value and no hi-tech suffer? Why is poor Cambodia not devastated by Covid? Cambodians have little medical care, and they accepted a whole boat-load of “infected” passengers from The Diamond Princess. They also have thousands of Chinese tourists. And they have no Covid in their poor country. Why does Mongolia, China’s neighbour with its very strong connections with China, have no Covid?

  Why do only rich countries suffer? Why is it only the countries with a powerful liberal press, with a positive connection to the WHO, with developed hi-tech infrastructure and their own digital lords? Could it be simply that they have something to loot? It makes sense to loot Belgium, and Belgians have a lot of Covid. But it makes no sense to loot Mongolia or Cambodia. If you follow me thus far, you will also see that such things can’t happen by themselves. GAFAM is the prime mover and the beneficiary, while Gates is the link between them and the WHO.

  Without the WHO’s blessing, no country would entertain the idea of lockdown. The WHO has learned much since 2009, and eventually decided to play Covid as hard as it could. President Trump has good instincts, even if he provides wrong explanations. The WHO is indeed a central player in the conspiracy. They even had to kill their own top executive in January 2020, who notably objected to classifying Covid as a pandemic. The WHO offered a $60 million bribe to Belarus President Lukashenko for locking down his nation, but the president refused the bribe as he felt responsible for the wellbeing of Belarus. And indeed, free Belarus has roughly the same share of Covid infections and deaths as its locked down neighbours Ukraine and Poland. Poland is a bit worse off because it is a fatter prey than lean Belarus. The WHO even tried to bribe Madagascar which developed its own medical low-tech treatment for Covid sufferers with surprisingly good results. The WHO offered a bribe to their president to say that people died of the treatment. (Not that Madagascar, being poor, had much to worry about it.)

  President Trump has had reason to be unhappy about China, as this great country invented lockdown as a tool to fight epidemics in 2009, when the world was worried about the swine flu H1N1. Then China began to practice massive lockdowns, quarantining whole cities, declaring that hundreds of thousands are infected, restricting air travel and producing a vaccine. The measures were taken when only 30 persons succumbed to the flu, and the WHO objected to the Chinese actions. Eventually 3,000 died in the US, and 800 in China. The profits from marketing the vaccine were enormous. “Windfall for the Big Pharma”, reported Reuters. WHO also profited, and did not report about their own involvement. Thus the partnership of Big Pharma – China – WHO had been formed, and they were willing to repeat the old script on a larger scale. They did it in 2020.

  The Chinese didn’t hesitate to lock down Wuhan in 2020, and this time, their example has been followed by other countries. Enemies of China say that by spreading their model the Chinese wanted to attack the economies of other states in order to buy their assets on the cheap. Others add that China locked down troublesome cities like Wuhan, which were seen as likely to rebel following Hong Kong model. Friends of China say that the critique of China is connected with the US desire to default on its $1.3 trillion debt to China. And besides, China had been attacked many times by US bioweapons, so it had to be careful.

  Let us say that China didn’t and couldn’t force any state to use its model. On the other hand, the WHO and assorted forces in other countries were quick to recognise the advantages of lockdown for them, and it was not for any epidemiological reasons. Some wanted to profit like they did in 2009, but on a bigger scale; some had political reasons, elections, civil unrest; some wanted to put ordinary people down under their control. They succeed, at our expense and at the expense of the Real World.

  The present lockdown had brought the world to the brink of a grim totalitarian dystopia. Even though the actual disease had been contained, and the perpetrators of the scheme need more and more crude falsifications to prove the opposite; their drive for control has just increased.

  In Israel, everyone has to install and use the Mossad-prepared app tracing all your contacts. The app can send you a text message saying “You passed by a corona-infected person; you have to immediately proceed to your home and stay there in seclusion for a fortnight”. You can’t argue with the app, and the app won’t pay your mortgage and your grocery bills.

  In Moscow the regime of control is also by an app. A person who visited hospital or even a doctor, has to install the app, and send a selfie whenever the app demands, even in the middle of the night. An omission to comply within one minute is punished by a 4000 roubles (US$55) fine. If you sleep soundly, you’ll wake up in the morning with a heap of these fines.

  The Moscow regime of surveillance and control is exceedingly strict. You have to apply for a QR pass to leave your home, marking your destination and the reason. Churches and parks are not listed as permitted destinations. Only a few people disagree with the arrangement. People in general take it easy. They share on Facebook their satisfaction with the system, enthusing that it was easy to apply and receive the pass. Is it Stalin’s training of their parents, or slavery (until 1861) of their more remote ancestors that installed this compliance and obedience, I mused, but then I noticed the report from the freedom-loving State of Washington:

  “Washington Governor Jay Inslee (D) indicated that people who refuse to cooperate with contact tracers won’t be allowed to leave their homes, even to go to the grocery store or pharmacy”.

  Alas, people all over the world are easily bendable to the will of the authorities, especially if they are scared by medical jargon. Latin Americans, supposedly hot-tempered folk, placidly complied with Covid regulations; but before that, they obeyed their tyrants and dictators. In democratic New Zealand, a bill passed giving police sweeping powers to potentially enter homes without warrants to enforce Covid rules despite opposition objections, though the Human Rights Commission said it was “a great failure of our democratic process”. One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest, the book and the film, remind us there aren’t many rebels. The Majority agrees even to the most awful regimes. I am against lockdown because I value freedom more than I value life, but it is just a personal preference.

  In order to convince people, the Covid enforcers say they do it “to save the old and vulnerable”. This is a pathetic lie. Actually they created an extremely uncomfortable regime for old people. In Israel, there is a plan (yet to materialise) to issue a ‘green patch’ to people over 60. Only persons displaying the green patch are allowed to go into public space. An elderly person is liable to arrest and fine if he fails to display the patch. The patch will be issued by police after a medical check-up, and will be valid for a year. Even green patch bearers will be forbidden to fly. It does not sound like protection of the elderly. Israel is not alone: in American Samoa, people over 60 must stay at home, imprisoned. You can view the limitations of natural freedom in various countries to see how they compete over who will make their citizens more miserable. It makes for depressing reading.

  Was the lockdown necessary at all for purely medical reasons? Did it save lives? I do not think so, but the jury is still out. We shall know the exact answer in a year’s time. If Covid-19 will be gone like its predecessors Avian flu (2003) and swine flu (2009), the lockdown was not too bad an idea. Perhaps it was not really necessary, for it saved a few people at huge social cost, but it wasn’t not too bad. However, if Covid-19 has come to stay and will invade regularly, the lockdown makes no sense at all.

  Covid adepts tend to think we should expect the second wave, and more waves afterwards. Some of them preach to extend quarantine for a year or longer. It can’t be done – we shall not survive such a long house arrest as a species. What is annoying is that they insist on imposing the wearing of masks, even gloves and social distancing right now and forever. They also block international travel. The Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov predicted that our pre-Covid freedom of movement won’t come back.

  While we can’t possibly derail progress and stop the Digital Revolution, we can end the accompanying fraud and extra-legal restrictions on our freedom to move. We also should cherish the few remaining platforms like UR that allow us to express and share unorthodox views.

  

• Earth's Magnetic Field Mysteriously Weakening In Specific Locations, Throwing Off Satellites And Spacecraft
  Earth's Magnetic Field Mysteriously Weakening In Specific Locations, Throwing Off Satellites And Spacecraft
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 05/22/2020 – 22:05

  The Earth’s magnetic field, which protects life on our planet by blocking the majority of harmful solar radiation, is mysteriously weakening in specific locations.

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  Over the last two centuries, it has lost nearly 10% of its strength, leading some to speculate that a multi-century pole reversal has begun. What’s more, scientists have identified a large, localized region of weakness extending from Africa to South America, along with a second ‘center of minimum intensity’ southwest of Africa – both of which are allowing charged particles from the cosmos to penetrate lower altitudes of the atmosphere – throwing off satellites flying in low-Earth orbit, according to Sky.

  Known as the South Atlantic Anomaly, the field strength in this area has rapidly shrunk over the past 50 years just as the area itself has grown and moved westward.

  Over the past five years a second centre of minimum intensity has developed southwest of Africa, which researchers believe indicates the anomaly could split into two separate cells. –Sky

  According to scientists from the Swarm Data Innovation and Science Cluster (DISC) at the European Space Agency (ESA), measurements from their ‘swarm satellite constellation’ have shed tremendous light on the second anomaly.

  In fact, the anomaly had puzzled ESA researchers as their Swarm satellites would sometimes ‘black out‘ when flying through the affected region. Three years ago, they observed a link between the blackouts and Ionospheric thunderstorms.

  “The new, eastern minimum of the South Atlantic Anomaly has appeared over the last decade and in recent years is developing vigorously,” said Dr. Jurgen Matzka of the German Research Center for Geosciences. “We are very lucky to have the Swarm satellites in orbit to investigate the development of the South Atlantic Anomaly. The challenge now is to understand the processes in Earth’s core driving these changes.“

  If this is the beginning of a pole reversal – which happens roughly every quarter-million years, it would result in multiple north and south magnetic poles all around the globe during the multi-century phenomenon.

  “Such events have occurred many times throughout the planet’s history,” said ESA, adding “we are long overdue by the average rate at which these reversals take place (roughly every 250,000 years)”

  Not to worry, in theory, as the space agency says that the South Atlantic dip which they’re still learning about was “well within what is considered normal levels of fluctuations.”

  For people on the surface the anomaly is unlikely to cause any alarm, but satellites and other spacecraft flying through the area are experiencing technical malfunctions.

  Because the magnetic field is weaker in the region, charged particles from the cosmos can penetrate through to the altitudes that low-Earth orbiting satellites fly at.

  “The mystery of the origin of the South Atlantic Anomaly has yet to be solved,” added ESA. –Sky

  “However, one thing is certain: magnetic field observations from Swarm are providing exciting new insights into the scarcely understood processes of Earth’s interior.”

  

• The Rich In China Got Richer Thanks To COVID-19
  The Rich In China Got Richer Thanks To COVID-19
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 05/22/2020 – 21:45

  Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

  Not everyone was adversely impacted by COVID-19, especially in China.

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  A Tweet Thread by Michael Pettis explains.

  1. During my Sunday seminar a student made a presentation with preliminary data on how Covid-19 has affected the wealth and the income of different households in China, ranked by income. I sort of expected a broadly linear relationship in which the rich and very rich would have…

  2. …been unaffected or slightly worse off, the middle worse off, and the poor a lot worse off.   According to her data, however, the rich and very rich were actually better off in terms of both income and wealth (the latter, we think, mainly because they owned “better” real…

  3. …estate), while the middle were worse off in both, and the poor were much worse off (in wealth mainly, we think, because of a depletion in savings). I expected Covid-19 to worsen income inequality, but I was surprised both by the extent to which it did and by the fact that…

  4. …the wealthy actually continued advancing while only the middle and the poor were worse off – at least according to preliminary data. What happened in China won’t necessarily happen elsewhere, but, still, I suspect we will see similar patterns in other countries affected by…

  5. …Covid-19. The net economic effect of the pandemic, in other words, is likely to be a very substantial transfer of wealth up the income scale. It seems to me that any fiscal or monetary response that doesn’t take this into consideration is likely to be ineffective and maybe…

  6. …even harmful (if it worsens income inequality).

  The US will see similar things but not to the same degree. 

  Many successful US businesses had far too much leverage and will go under as the economic data has been nothing but grim.

  1. May 8: Over 20 Million Jobs Lost As Unemployment Rises Most In History

  2. May 15: Retail Sales Plunge Way More Than Expected

  3. May 15: Industrial Production Declines Most in 101 Years

  Fed Promotes More Free Money

  Things are so bad in the US, The Fed asked Congress to step in with fiscal recommendations, especially more deficit increasing measures.

  I commented on May 14, Panic Sets In: Fed Promotes More Free Money.

  The Fed wants the asset holders to be bailed out and the Fed will try, but the US rich “in general” will not as a class all do better.

  Yet, I agree with this key statement: “The net economic effect of the pandemic, in other words, is likely to be a very substantial transfer of wealth up the income scale.”

  

• "We've Never Seen Numbers Like This" – Trauma Doc Sees Post-Lockdown Suicide Wave Starting
  "We've Never Seen Numbers Like This" – Trauma Doc Sees Post-Lockdown Suicide Wave Starting
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 05/22/2020 – 21:25

  We suggested, at the beginning of April, that a “suicide wave” was imminent considering the economic devastation sparked by COVID-19 lockdowns. In the last nine weeks, 38.6 million Americans have lost their jobs and were thrown into instant poverty. Many were already skating on thin financial ice even before the pandemic, and now they’ve fallen through, drowning in insurmountable debts, no savings, and limited lifelines. 

  The first signs of a suicide wave could be originating in California. ABC7 News reports doctors and nurses at John Muir Medical Center in Walnut Creek, in the East Bay region of the San Francisco Bay Area, are reporting deaths by suicide far exceed COVID-19 deaths during the pandemic. 

  The hospital’s top trauma doctor, Dr. Mike deBoisblanc, told ABC7 that mental health has become a major problem during the shelter-in-place order. 

   

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  “Personally I think it’s time,” said deBoisblanc. “I think, originally, this (the shelter-in-place order) was put in place to flatten the curve and to make sure hospitals have the resources to take care of COVID patients. We have the current resources to do that and our other community health is suffering.”

  DeBoisblanc said the numbers are unprecedented: 

  “We’ve never seen numbers like this, in such a short period of time,” he said. “I mean we’ve seen a year’s worth of suicide attempts in the last four weeks.”

  Kacey Hansen, a trauma nurse at the hospital for over three decades, said the volume of suicide attempts has dramatically increased during the lockdowns, noting the pandemic has stretched resources, which means there are fewer tools to save as many patients as usual.

  “What I have seen recently, I have never seen before,” Hansen said. “I have never seen so much intentional injury.”

  As we’ve noted in the past, hospital systems do not let doctors and nurses speak out about internal affairs and or what’s happening in the community unless cleared by officials. It appears the outreach of hospital staff to the local news outlet is a move to address the mental health public crisis sparked by lockdowns in the Bay Area. The hospital released this statement: 

  “John Muir Health has been, and continues to be, supportive of the Shelter-in-Place order put in place by Contra Costa County Health Services to prevent the spread of COVID-19. We realize there are a number of opinions on this topic, including within our medical staff, and John Muir Health encourages our physicians and staff to participate constructively in these discussions. We all share a concern for the health of our community whether that is COVID-19, mental health, intentional violence or other issues. We continue to actively work with our Behavioral Health Center, County Health and community organizations to increase awareness of mental health issues and provide resources to anyone in need. If you are in a crisis and need help immediately, please call 211 or 800-833-2900 or text ‘HOPE’ to 20121 now. We are all in this together, and ask the community to please reach out to anyone who you think might be in need during this challenging time. Thank you.”

  In addition to the +90,000 and counting virus-related deaths, Well Being Trust recently outlined how 75,000 people could die of drug or alcohol misuse and or suicide during the pandemic. 

  President Trump warned in March that nationwide lockdowns must be reversed to prevent “tremendous death” from the economic depression, referring to the likely increase of suicides. 

  “People get tremendous anxiety and depression and you have suicide over things like this, when you have a terrible economy, you have death,” President Trump said.

  President Trump on economy: “We can’t turn that off and think it’s going to be wonderful. There’ll be tremendous repercussions. There will be tremendous death…probably more death from that than anything that we’re talking about with respect to the virus.” pic.twitter.com/82WEb4HJ8z

  — CSPAN (@cspan) March 23, 2020

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  And with any recession and or depression, high unemployment results in financial distress for people and eventually triggers mental health problems. 

  “The 2008 Great Recession resulted in more than 10,000 suicides. The Great Depression resulted in tens of thousands of people taking their own lives. If the economy continues to be shuttered through April and or even May, then the depression will deepen, and suicides will increase. That is just the nature of the beast,” we noted in early April. 

  As a second virus wave lingers, threats of additional lockdowns in the coming months, and no signs the economy with experience a V-shaped recovery this year — it appears the suicide wave has already begun. 

  

• Worst Unemployment Spike In History – 1 In 4 American Workers Has Filed For Unemployment Benefits In 2020
  Worst Unemployment Spike In History – 1 In 4 American Workers Has Filed For Unemployment Benefits In 2020
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 05/22/2020 – 21:05

  Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

  Even though most U.S. states have begun the process of “reopening” their economies, the unprecedented tsunami of job losses that we have been experiencing just continues to roll on.  On Thursday, we learned that another 2.4 million Americans filed initial claims for unemployment benefits during the previous week, and that brings the grand total for this pandemic to a whopping 38.6 million.  To get an idea of just how badly this swamps what we witnessed during the last recession, take a look at this chart.  This is the biggest spike in unemployment in all of U.S. history by a very wide margin, and analysts are expecting another huge number once again next week.

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  After my father got out of the U.S. Navy, he worked as a math teacher for many years, and throughout my life I have always had a deep appreciation for numbers.

  And in this case, the numbers are telling us that we are facing something truly horrific.

  During the month of February, the number of Americans that were currently employed peaked at 152,463,000.

  If you take the 38.6 million workers that have filed for unemployment benefits during this crisis and divide it by 152,463,000, you will find that it gives you a figure of more than 25 percent.

  In other words, more than one out of every four jobs in the United States is already gone, and more job losses will be coming week after week.

  And of course not everyone that loses a job actually files a claim for unemployment benefits.  So the true percentage of Americans that have lost a job would be even higher.

  It had been hoped that the unemployment numbers would begin to normalize once states began “reopening” their economies, but so far that is not really materializing.

  For example, Georgia was one of the first states to begin lifting restrictions, but that state also “now leads the country in terms of the proportion of its workforce applying for unemployment assistance”…

  Georgia’s early move to start easing stay-at-home restrictions nearly a month ago has done little to stem the state’s flood of unemployment claims — illustrating how hard it is to bring jobs back while consumers are still afraid to go outside.

  Weekly applications for jobless benefits have remained so elevated that Georgia now leads the country in terms of the proportion of its workforce applying for unemployment assistance. A staggering 40.3 percent of the state’s workers — two out of every five — has filed for unemployment insurance payments since the coronavirus pandemic led to widespread shutdowns in mid-March, a POLITICO review of Labor Department data shows.

  Our politicians really didn’t understand what they were doing when they started locking down state after state.  Coming into 2020, the U.S. economy was in an extremely fragile state and was already moving rapidly toward recession territory, and now fear of COVID-19 has burst all of our economic bubbles.

  The U.S. economy is now in a death spiral, and a survey that was just conducted by the Census Bureau came up with some numbers that are simply eye-popping…

  Nearly half of Americans say that either their incomes have declined or they live with another adult who has lost pay through a job loss or reduced hours, the Census Bureau said in survey data released Wednesday.

  More than one-fifth of Americans said they had little or no confidence in their ability to pay the next month´s rent or mortgage on time, the survey found.

  Already, we are beginning to see mortgage delinquencies rise to very alarming levels.

  In fact, in April we witnessed the largest single month jump that has ever been recorded…

  Mortgage delinquencies surged by 1.6 million in April, the largest single-month jump in history, according to a report from Black Knight, a mortgage technology and data provider. The data includes both homeowners past due on mortgage payments who aren’t in forbearance, along with those in forbearance plans and who didn’t make a mortgage payment in April.

  At 6.45%, the national delinquency rate nearly doubled from 3.06% in March, the largest single-month increase recorded, and nearly three times the prior record for a single month during the height of the financial crisis in late 2008, Black Knight said.

  Sadly, the truth is that this is only going to get worse.

  The “enhanced unemployment benefits” that Congress recently passed have been helping many unemployed Americans to pay their mortgages, but now it appears that President Trump and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell do not intend to extend those benefits past the July deadline.  They are concerned that those benefits have been so generous that they have been discouraging many Americans from going back to work, and they are quite right about that.

  Unfortunately, it isn’t just homeowners that have been missing payments.

  At this point, the entire commercial real estate industry is on the precipice of a meltdown as rent payments and mortgage payments are being “skipped” all over the nation on a widespread basis.  On Thursday, we learned that even the owners of The Mall of America have been skipping their mortgage payments…

  The biggest shopping center in the country, The Mall of America, has missed two months of payments on its $1.4 billion mortgage, a sign of just how much retail real estate owners are reeling during the coronavirus pandemic.

  The mall, operated by private developers Triple Five Group, skipped mortgage payments in April and May, according to Trepp, a New York-based research firm that tracks the commercial mortgage-backed securities, or CMBS, market.

  Unless Congress steps in and showers the entire commercial real estate industry with giant mountains of cash, I don’t see how an unprecedented meltdown can be averted.

  It is going to be horrifying to watch, and it is going to absolutely dwarf anything that we witnessed in 2008.

  Of course similar things can be said about the economy as a whole.  At this point, Bank of America is projecting that U.S. GDP will fall 40 percent on an annualized basis during the second quarter of this year…

  Now that banks have had a chance to evaluate the collapse in the economy in the post-covid world, a new round of GDP forecast revisions is coming, and it’s a doozy, with Bank of America spearheading the latest effort by slashing its Q2 GDP forecast from -30% to -40%.

  Not without a trace of irony, BofA’s chief economist Michelle Meyer writes that “words cannot describe” the loss in economic output, which is “unlike anything we have seen in modern history.”

  When Bank of America starts sounding like The Economic Collapse Blog, that is a clear sign that things are really starting to fall apart in a major way.

  Now that restrictions are being lifted all over the nation, the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases is starting to rise again, and fear of this virus is going to paralyze economic activity for the foreseeable future.

  And what most Americans still don’t understand is that what we have experienced so far is just the beginning…

  

• The Remdesivir Study Is Finally Out: Drug Only Helped Those On Oxygen, Finds Mortality Too High For Standalone Treatment
  The Remdesivir Study Is Finally Out: Drug Only Helped Those On Oxygen, Finds Mortality Too High For Standalone Treatment
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 05/22/2020 – 20:45

  Remember when the market soared on several days in April on the Facui-touted Remdesivir study which, according to StatNews and various other unofficial sources of rumors, was a smashing success only for the optimism to fizzle as many questions emerged, and as the Gilead drug quietly faded from the public’s consciousness and was replaced by various coronavirus vaccine candidates such as those made by the greatly hyped Moderna (whose insiders just can’t stop selling company stock).

  Meanwhile, those who were waiting for the official version of Remdesivir’s effectiveness had to do so until 6pm on a Friday before a long holiday, and for good reason…

  Friday 6 pm. Fking ridiculous. https://t.co/6Ze38BfVgN

  — Adam Feuerstein (@adamfeuerstein) May 22, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  … According to a pivotal study published in the New England Journal of Medicine late on Friday, Remdesivir, which was authorized to treat Covid-19 in a group of 1063 adults and children (split into two groups, one receiving placebo instead of remdesivir) who need i) supplemental oxygen, ii) a ventilator or iii) extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO), only significantly helped those on supplemental oxygen.

  Meanwhile, and explaining the 6pm release on a Friday, the study also found no marked benefit from remdesivir for those who were healthier and didn’t need oxygen or those who were sicker, requiring a ventilator or a heart-lung bypass machine.

  The NEJM, almost apologetically, stated that “the lack of benefit seen in the other groups might have stemmed from a smaller number of patients in each group.”

  Still, as a result of the partial benefit for patients in the supplemental oxygen group, the study from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases was evaluated early and led to the authorization of remdesivir before the full trial was completed.

  Our findings highlight the need to identify Covid-19 cases and start antiviral treatment before the pulmonary disease progresses to require mechanical ventilation.

  Some more details on the study, which was a “rank test of the time to recovery with remdesivir as compared with placebo, with stratification by disease severity”:

  The primary outcome measure was the time to recovery, defined as the first day, during the 28 days after enrollment, on which a patient satisfied categories 1, 2, or 3 on the eight-category ordinal scale. The categories are as follows:

  1. not hospitalized, no limitations of activities;
  2. not hospitalized, limitation of activities, home oxygen requirement, or both;
  3. hospitalized, not requiring supplemental oxygen and no longer requiring ongoing medical care (used if hospitalization was extended for infection-control reasons);
  4. hospitalized, not requiring supplemental oxygen but requiring ongoing medical care (Covid-19–related or other medical conditions);
  5. 5, hospitalized, requiring any supplemental oxygen;
  6. hospitalized, requiring noninvasive ventilation or use of high-flow oxygen devices;
  7. hospitalized, receiving invasive mechanical ventilation or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO); and
  8. death.

  The results are summarized below, highlighting the only group that showed a statistically significant improvement in outcomes as a result of taking the drug vs placebo.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  A visual representation of the outcomes is below; it shows that whereas there was a modest benefit only to patients who were receiving oxygen, the results were statistically insignificant vs placebo for patients not receiving oxygen, while in a surprising twist patients on high-flow oxygen or mechanical ventilator/ECMO did modestly better in the placebo group than those taking remdesivir. Also, the overall results showed a very modest, but not statistically significant improvement in the remdesivir group vs placebo (box A).

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Another disappointment: the study found that overall “mortality was numerically lower in the remdesivir group than in the placebo group, but the difference was not significant“, in other words the alleged “miracle drug” has largely the same effect as a placebo in terms of overall disease mortality.

  The study authors also note that the “findings in our trial should be compared with those observed in a randomized trial from China in which 237 patients were enrolled (158 assigned to remdesivir and 79 to placebo)…. That trial failed to complete full enrollment (owing to the end of the outbreak), had lower power than the present trial (owing to the smaller sample size and a 2:1 randomization), and was unable to demonstrate any statistically significant clinical benefits of remdesivir.“

  Finally, the study found that while mortality was modestly lower for the remdesivir arm, it was not significantly so, at 7.1% at 14 days on drug versus 11.9% on placebo.

  In conclusion, while the “preliminary findings support the use of remdesivir for patients who are hospitalized with Covid-19 and require supplemental oxygen therapy” the study goes on to warn that “given high mortality despite the use of remdesivir, it is clear that treatment with an antiviral drug alone is not likely to be sufficient.”

  The study’s recommendation:

  Future strategies should evaluate antiviral agents in combination with other therapeutic approaches or combinations of antiviral agents to continue to improve patient outcomes in Covid-19.

  So a generally disappointing outcome, one which would lead to a drop in the market. Nonsense: think of all the spin, and why this is in fact great news for stocks: Remdesivir may be a dud as a “silver bullet” to curing covid, leading to statistically significant improvement in only a very limited subset of infected patients and “high mortality” for those taking it, but at least the algos will have a whole lot of other “miracle drugs” to levitate them as optimism that the next remdesivir is just around the corner. In short: rinse, rumor, and repeat… and then save the bad news for 6pm on a Friday.

  Oh, and for those asking about the “official” reason why the NE Journal of Medicine waited until just the right time to make sure nobody reads the results, here it is:

  I asked NEJM spox to explain the Friday 6 pm release of the remdesivir study. Her response is below. pic.twitter.com/WjNGyUv7sH

  — Adam Feuerstein (@adamfeuerstein) May 22, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The full study is available here.

  

• Biden Apologizes For 'Cavalier' Racism During Damage Control Call With Black Leaders
  Biden Apologizes For 'Cavalier' Racism During Damage Control Call With Black Leaders
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 05/22/2020 – 20:40

  Update (1625ET): Hours after insulting black voters, Biden said he regrets telling radio host Charlamagne Tha God that black Trump supporters and undecideds “ain’t black.”

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  “I shouldn’t have been such a wise guy. I shouldn’t have been so cavalier,” said Biden, speaking on a damage control call with black business leaders.

  “I don’t take it for granted at all and no one should have to vote for any party based on their race, religion or background. There are African Americans who think Trump is worth voting for. I don’t think so and I’m prepared to put my record against his, that was the bottom line and it was really unfortunate, I shouldn’t have been so cavalier.“

  No word on whether he thinks the black business leaders are “the first mainstream African-American(s) who is articulate and bright and clean” like he said of Obama in 2007.

  *  *  *

  Joe Biden just massively insulted black voters – telling a popular black radio host on Friday that he ‘ain’t black’ if he was still weighing whether to support Biden or Trump in the November election.

  WHAT IF DONALD TRUMP HAD SAID THIS? Will Joe Biden get a pass on this??? I had to watch 3 times to make sure I actually heard what he said. Here it is verbatim: “if you have a problem figuring out if you’re for me or Trump, then YOU AIN’T BLACK” 😳🤯 https://t.co/h7xOwMecA0

  — Lara Trump (@LaraLeaTrump) May 22, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Biden’s comment came during an interview with “The Breakfast Club” host Charlamagne tha God, who challenged the former VP over his decades-long record on racial issues and asked him about possibly choosing a black, female running mate, according to Politico.

  “I’m not acknowledging anybody who is being considered, but I guarantee you, there are multiple black women being considered. Multiple,” said Biden of his (handlers’) search for a VP nominee.

  It was then that an aide to the Biden campaign could be heard interjecting into the conversation, attempting to cut short the interview. “Thank you so much. That’s really our time. I apologize,” the aide said.

  “You can’t do that to black media!” Charlamagne retored.

  “I do that to white media and black media because my wife has to go on at 6 o’clock,” Biden shot back, apparently referring to a subsequent media appearance by Dr. Jill Biden, before adding: “Uh oh. I’m in trouble.”

  “Listen, you’ve got to come see us when you come to New York, VP Biden,” Charlamagne said. “It’s a long way until November. We’ve got more questions.”

  “You’ve got more questions?” Biden replied. “Well I tell you what, if you have a problem figuring out whether you’re for me or Trump, then you ain’t black.”

  Charlamagne explained that “it don’t have nothing to do with Trump, it has to do with the fact [that] I want something for my community.” But Biden remained adamant in promoting what he described as a career of public service devoted to advancing civil rights. –Politico

  Needless to say, while Biden’s comment will probably go unnoticed by his MSM surrogates, it hasn’t slipped past Twitter users:

  “If you have a problem figuring out whether you’re for me or Trump, then you ain’t Black.” – Joe Biden

  Joe thinks if you’re Black, the Democratic Party owns your vote. If you’re Black and don’t want to vote for Joe… He says you aren’t Black. Racist! pic.twitter.com/br8Z06Ncqr

  — Robby Starbuck (@robbystarbuck) May 22, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  WHAT IN THE ACTUAL RACIST F*CK?

  pic.twitter.com/eBCgICkbqe

  — Ali † (@ali) May 22, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  I’ve never heard anything more racist than @JoeBiden discrediting my blackness because I refuse to allow the color of my skin to dictate my politics.

  I’m disgusted.

  — CJ Pearson (@thecjpearson) May 22, 2020

  #YouAintBlack I am very Black. And, I am voting for @realDonaldTrump you SEALED the deal @JoeBiden you’re the worst kind of racist, one that will insult one to the face! @iamwandasykes anyone voting for Joe is sick. pic.twitter.com/fdWg1Bpe4v

  — Author – Carol D. Mitchell (@suzy1493) May 22, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Trump works for the black vote.

  Biden expects it.

  Spot the difference?

  — thebradfordfile™ (@thebradfordfile) May 22, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  #joebiden said “If you have a problem figuring out if you are for him or Trump.. you ain’t black” Do you agree ??

  — The Breakfast Club (@breakfastclubam) May 22, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Aint what? pic.twitter.com/rcG90w4Jxt

  — SolSec🎬 (@Solmemes1) May 22, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsFull interview here:

  No word on whether Biden thinks black Trump supporters’ kids are as bright as white kids.

  

• YouTube Censors Doctor Knut Wittkowski For Opposing The Tyrannical Lockdowns
  YouTube Censors Doctor Knut Wittkowski For Opposing The Tyrannical Lockdowns
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 05/22/2020 – 20:25

  Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

  Freedom of speech is quickly going extinct along with pretty much every other basic human right that we are born with. YouTube has now censored Dr. Knut Wittowski, for daring to question the government’s tyranny.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Back at the beginning of April, SHTFPlan highlighted this censored doctor’s take on the lockdowns, and why he says they will not work. More than a month later, he’s been proven correct while some Americans still can’t see what’s right in front of them: this whole thing was planned for domination and control of humanity by the very select few elitists.

  Epidemiologist: Coronavirus Could Be “EXTERMINATED” If Lockdowns Are Lifted

  Dr. Knut M. Wittkowski, former head of biostatistics, epidemiology, and research design at Rockefeller University, says YouTube removed a video of him talking about the virus that had racked up more than 1.3 million views.

  Wittkowski, 65, is a ferocious critic of the nation’s current steps to fight the coronavirus. He has derided social distancing, saying it only prolongs the virus’ existence and has attacked the current lockdown as mostly unnecessary.

  Wittkowski, who holds two doctorates in computer science and medical biometry, believes the coronavirus should be allowed to create “herd immunity,” and that short of a vaccine, the pandemic will only end after it has sufficiently spread through the population.

  “With all respiratory diseases, the only thing that stops the disease is herd immunity. About 80% of the people need to have had contact with the virus, and the majority of them won’t even have recognized that they were infected,” he says in the now-deleted video. –New York Post

  More of Wittkowskit’s exact quotes about the coronavirus plandemic can be found in our article, although the video, which we linked, will not be available thanks to YouTube “protecting us” from information.

  People all over the world continue to bow to tyranny under the false illusion that they’ll be “safe” and the suffering will be immense if we do not stop it.  Anyone who speaks out against their enslavement will be punished, terrorized, harassed, and censored by Big Tech all with the approval of the mainstream media and the government. While we are being enslaved, the politicians are daring to call ALL OF US the terrorists.  You can’t make this up!

  Armed men storming a legislature to disrupt its democratic proceedings is domestic terrorism. It cannot be tolerated.https://t.co/NcCFgA5COE

  — Hillary Clinton (@HillaryClinton) May 15, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Let’s make one thing clear: WE ARE NOT THE TERRORISTS! The government is terrorizing every single human being on the globe right now.  Here’s the proof…the definition of terrorism is as follows: the unlawful use of violence and intimidation, especially against civilians, in the pursuit of political aims. Americas have no political aims, we want only to live our lives in freedom and to be left alone to take life’s risks upon ourselves.  The political ruling class are the terrorists based on their own definition!

  Wake up! Meanwhile, those who speak out are subjected to dictatorial censorship by the terroristic politicians.

  “It’s the kind of totalitarian thinking and conduct that has cost millions of lives in recent world history. The fact that it’s being done by private companies and not government doesn’t change that,” Ron Coleman, a prominent First Amendment lawyer, told The Post.

  YouTube fails to censor flat earth videos, so that “misinformation” is allowed, however, you cannot speak against the authorities.

  

• Wray's Review Of FBI's Flynn Probe "Is The Fox Guarding The Hen House"
  Wray's Review Of FBI's Flynn Probe "Is The Fox Guarding The Hen House"
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 05/22/2020 – 20:05

  Authored by Sara Carter,

  FBI Director Christopher Wray announced Friday that he has ordered the bureau to conduct an internal review of its handling of the probe into former national security adviser Michael Flynn, which has led to his years long battle in federal court.

  It’s like the fox guarding the hen house.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Wray’s decision to investigate also comes late. The bureau’s probe only comes after numerous revelations that former senior FBI officials and agents involved in Flynn’s case allegedly engaged in misconduct to target the three star general, who became President Donald Trump’s most trusted campaign advisor.

  Despite all these revelations, Wray has promised that the bureau will examine whether any employees engaged in misconduct during the court of the investigation and “evaluate whether any improvements in FBI policies and procedures need to be made.” Based on what we know, how can we trust an unbiased investigation from the very bureau that targeted Flynn.

  Let me put it to you this way, over the past year Wray has failed to cooperate with congressional investigations. In fact, many Republican lawmakers have called him out publicly on the lack of cooperation saying, he cares more about protecting the bureaucracy than exposing and resolving the culture of corruption within the bureau.

  Wray’s Friday announcement, is in my opinion, a ruse to get lawmakers off his back.

  How can we trust that Wray’s internal investigation will expose what actually happened in the case of Flynn, or any of the other Trump campaign officials that were targeted by the former Obama administration’s intelligence and law enforcement apparatus.

  It’s Wray’s FBI that continues to battle all the Judicial Watch Freedom of Information Act requests regarding the investigation into Flynn, along with any requests that would expose  information on the Russia hoax investigation. One in particular, is the request to obtain all the text messages and emails sent and received by former Deputy Director Andrew McCabe.

  The FBI defended itself in its Friday announcement saying that in addition to its own internal review, it has already cooperated with other inquiries assigned by Attorney General William Barr. But still Wray has not approved subpoena’s for employees and others that lawmakers want to interview behind closed doors in Congress.

  The recent documented discoveries by the Department of Justice make it all the more imperative that an outside review of the FBI’s handling of Flynn’s case is required. Those documents, which shed light on the actions by the bureau against Flynn, led to the DOJ’s decision to drop all charges against him. It was, after all, DOJ Attorney Jeffery Jensen who discovered the FBI documents regarding Flynn that have aided his defense attorney Sidney Powell in getting the truth out to they American people.

  Powell, like me, doesn’t believe an internal review is appropriate.

  “Wow? And how is he going to investigate himself,” she questioned in a Tweet. “And how could anyone trust it? FBI Director Wray opens internal review into how bureau handled Michael Flynn case.”

  WOW? And how is he going to investigate himself? And how could anyone trust it?
  FBI Director Wray opens internal review into how bureau handled Michael Flynn casehttps://t.co/AeE0yL46W6#FBICorruption#Clapper#Brennan#NSA#spying
  Widespread illegal monitoring by #Obama admin

  — Sidney Powell 🇺🇸⭐⭐⭐ (@SidneyPowell1) May 22, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Last week, this reporter published the growing divide between Congressional Republicans on the House Judiciary Committee and Wray. The lawmakers have accused Wray of failing to respond to numerous requests to speak with FBI Special Agent Joe Pientka, who along with former FBI Special Agent Peter Strzok, conducted the now infamous White House interview with Flynn on Jan. 24, 2017.

  Further, the lawmakers have also requested to speak with the FBI’s former head of the Counterintelligence Division, Bill Priestap, whose unsealed handwritten notes revealed the possible ‘nefarious’ motivations behind the FBI’s investigation of Flynn.

  “Michael Flynn was wronged by the FBI,” said a senior Republican official last week, with direct knowledge of the Flynn investigation.

  “Sadly Director Wray has shown little interest in getting to the bottom of what actually happened with the Flynn case. Wray’s lackadaisical attitude is an embarrassment to the rank and file agents at the bureau, whose names have been dragged through the mud time and time again throughout the Russia-gate investigation. Wray needs to wake up and work with Congress. If he doesn’t maybe it’s time for him to go.”

  Powell argued that Flynn had pleaded guilty because his former Special Counsel Robert Mueller, along with his prosecutors, threatened to target his son. Those prosecutors also coerced Flynn, whose finances were depleted by his previous defense team. Mueller’s team got Flynn to plead guilty to lying to the FBI about a phone conversation he had with the former Russian ambassador Sergey Kislyak during the presidential transition period. However, the agents who interviewed him did not believe he was lying.

  Currently the DOJ’s request to dismiss the case is now pending before federal Judge Emmet Sullivan. Sullivan has failed to grant the DOJ’s request to dismiss the case and because of that Powell has filed a writ of mandamus to the U.S. D.C. Court of Appeals seeking the immediate removal of Sullivan, or to dismiss the prosecution as requested by the DOJ.

  

• Nursing Home Abuser Made Video Asserting "Black People Are Supposed To Rule The Earth"
  Nursing Home Abuser Made Video Asserting "Black People Are Supposed To Rule The Earth"
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 05/22/2020 – 19:45

  Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

  The culprit behind the horrific beating of an elderly man at a nursing home in Detroit made a YouTube video in which he asserted that “black people are supposed to rule the earth.”

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Footage emerged yesterday of a man later identified as 20-year-old Jadon Hayden beating up a defenseless elderly white man by repeatedly punching him in the face.

  Absolutely shocking footage has emerged from a black male nurse from Detroit (Jadon H.), who filmed himself beating elderly white men into a bloody pulp.

  “Get the fuck off my bed, N.,” he is heard saying.

  Viewer discretion advised. pic.twitter.com/NPtCFA8YIs

  — Mathijs Koenraadt (@mknrdt) May 21, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Another clip shows him beating an elderly white woman.

  I’ll never understand why Americans work 40+ hrs a week, pay taxes, fight for their country, just for their children to dump them in care homes in old age and subject them to this kinda treatment.

  The relevant authorities have his information so dw and I don’t mean the police! pic.twitter.com/0674AypzMJ

  — Chakita (@Chakitabelle) May 21, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Hayden uploaded the videos to his social media accounts but after the clips started to go viral on Twitter he was quickly arrested by police.

  Content Hayden had previously uploaded to his YouTube channel suggested he holds black supremacist beliefs.

  “The black race is the chosen race, the black race was supposed to rule the earth, but now…they have to go to the white man for everything and that’s not good,” Hayden says in one video.

  “Black people are supposed to rule the earth,” he emphasizes.

  Hayden also posted a video called “drugging ppl prank” that shows a white man convulsing in what appears to be the same nursing home, suggesting that he may have been responsible for the drugging.

  Many have questioned why the story isn’t being covered by major news networks like CNN, arguing that if the roles were reversed and the culprit was white, there’d be a mass uproar.

  Is this even possible to believe? Can this be for real? Where is this nursing home, how is the victim doing?

  — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 22, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  President Trump has tweeted about the issue and Tucker Carlson vowed last night to cover it fully on his show tonight.

  UPDATE: The heroic @TuckerCarlson aired a screenshot from the Detroit nursing home attack and said he would cover the “horrifying” story tomorrow night!

  “We’re going to have a lot more on that story tomorrow and the tape.” pic.twitter.com/eBMfxW4kl7

  — Chris Menahan 🇺🇸 (@infolibnews) May 22, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Hayden was a patient in the nursing home, which as Chris Menahan documents, has a very shady recent history.

  *  *  *

  My voice is being silenced by free speech-hating Silicon Valley behemoths who want me disappeared forever. It is CRUCIAL that you support me. Please sign up for the free newsletter here. Donate to me on SubscribeStar here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown.

  

• $650 Billion Facebook To Cut Pay Of Remote Workers Moving To Lower Cost-Of-Living Areas
  $650 Billion Facebook To Cut Pay Of Remote Workers Moving To Lower Cost-Of-Living Areas
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 05/22/2020 – 19:25

  Want to work at home? It’s going to cost you…

  While the headline this week was mostly that Facebook is encouraging its workers to stay home and that CEO Mark Zuckerberg predicted more than 50% of the company’s employees could be working from home within the next 5 to 10 years, another headline slipped through the cracks.

  The company could be cutting pay – or “adjusting compensations” as CNBC so lovingly put it – based on the cost of living of where people will be working from. 

  “We’ll adjust salary to your location at that point. There’ll be severe ramifications for people who are not honest about this,” Zuckerberg said, hilariously saying that the adjustments were necessary for “taxes and accounting”. 

  The company said it aims to “aggressively” ramp up its hiring of remote workers and that they will take a measured approach to opening up permanent remote work positions for existing employees.

  In addition to combating the effects of the coronavirus, Zuckerberg predicted that the new initiative could help employee retention and will allow the company to hire from talent pools that it previously wouldn’t have access to geographically…

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  …and of course, he also obligatorily said it’ll allow Facebook to “improve the diversity of its workforce”. 

  “When you limit hiring to people who either live in a small number of big cities or are willing to move there, that cuts out a lot of people who live in different communities, different backgrounds or may have different perspectives,” Zuckerberg said. 

  About 95% of the company’s employees are now working remotely. A survey the company did found that 50% of employees said they were as productive at home as they were in the office. 75% of employees said they would potentially move to a different city if they were able to work from home. 

  The company will start by allowing existing employees to request permanent remote work if their job qualifies. This group doesn’t include recent graduates or inexperienced employees. 

  “It’s somewhat of an unfortunate and unsustainable setup for people to have a lot of these jobs they have to move to a small number of big cities,” Zuckerberg said. “We’re going to be the most forward-leaning company on remote work at our scale.”

  But we’ll still cut your pay if you move to middle America. 

  

• Is This Controlled Demolition All Over Again?
  Is This Controlled Demolition All Over Again?
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 05/22/2020 – 19:05

  Authored by Gilad Atzmon,

  For years Eco-Enthusiasts, both activists and scientists, have been telling us that the ‘party’ will come to an end. The planet we are stuck on can’t take it for much longer, it is getting too crowded and unbearably warm. Most people didn’t take any real notice of the situation and for a reason. This planet, we tend to think, isn’t really ‘ours,’ we were thrown onto it and for a limited time. Once we grasp the true meaning of our temporality, we begin to acknowledge our terminality. ‘Being in the world’ as such is often the attempt to make our ‘life-time’ into a meaningful event.

  Most of us who haven’t been overly concerned with the ecological activists and their plans to slow us down knew that as long as Big Money runs the world, nothing of a dramatic nature would really happen. In the eyes of Big Money, we tended to think, we, the people, are mere consumers. We understood ourselves as the means that make the rich richer.

  Rather unexpectedly, life has undergone a dramatic change. In the present age of Corona, Big Money ‘let’ the world lock itself down. Economies have been sentenced to imminent death. Our significance as consumers somehow evaporated. The emerging alliance we have been detecting between the new leaders of the world economy (knowledge companies) and those who carry the flag of ‘progress’ ‘justice’ and ‘equality’ has evolved into an authoritarian dystopian condition in which robots and algorithms police our speech and elementary freedoms.

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  How is it that the Left, that had been devoted to opposition to the rich, has so changed its tune? In fact, nothing has happened suddenly. The Left and the Progressive universe have, for some time, been sustained financially by the rich. The Guardian is an illustrative case of the above. Once a left -leaning paper with a progressive orientation, the Guardian is now openly funded by Bill & Melinda Gates. It shamelessly operates as a mouthpiece for George Soros: it even allowed Soros to disseminate his apocalyptic pre-Brexit view at the time he himself gambled on Brits’ anti- Brexit vote. By now it is close to impossible to regard the Guardian as a news outlet – a propaganda outlet for the rich is a more suitable description. But the Guardian is far from alone. Our networks of progressive activists fall into the same trap. Not many of us were surprised to see Momentum, Jeremy Corbyn’s campaign support group within the Labour Party, rallying for the ‘Holocaust Survivor’ and ‘philanthropist’ George Soros. When Corbyn led the Labour Party, I learned to accept that ‘socialists’  putting themselves on the line of fire defending oligarchs, bankers and Wall Street brokers must be the new ‘Left’ reality.

  We are now inured to the fact that in the name of ‘progress’ Google has demoted itself from a great search engine into a hasbara outlet. We are accustomed to Facebook and Twitter dictating their worldview in the name of community standards. The only question is what community they have in mind. Certainty not a tolerant and pluralist western one.

  One may wonder what drives this new alliance that divides nearly every Western society? The left’s betrayal is hardly a surprise, yet, the crucial question is why, and out of the blue, did those who had been so successful in locating their filthy hands in our pockets go along with the current destruction of the economy? Surely, suicidal they aren’t.

  It occurs to me that what we may be seeing is a controlled demolition all over again. This time it isn’t a building in NYC. It isn’t the destruction of a single industry or even a single class as we have seen before. This time, our understanding of Being as a productive and meaningful adventure is embattled. As things stand, our entire sense of livelihood is at risk.

  It doesn’t take a financial expert to realise that in the last few years the world economy in general and western economies in particular have become a fat bubble ready to burst. When economic bubbles burst the outcome is unexpected even though often the culprit or trigger for the crash can be identified. What is unique in the current controlled demolition is the willingness of our compromised political class, the media and in particular Left/Progressive networks to participate in the destruction.

  The alliance is wide and inclusive. The WHO, greatly funded by Bill Gates, sets the measures by which we are locked down, the Left and the Progressives fuel the apocalyptic phantasies to keep us hiding in our global attics, Dershowitz tries to rewrite the constitution , big Pharma’s agenda shapes our future and we also hear that Moderna and its leading Israeli doctor is ready to “fix” our genes. Meanwhile we learn that our governments are gearing up to stick a needle in our arms. Throughout this time, the Dow Jones has continued to rise. Maybe in this final stage of capitalism, we the people aren’t needed even as consumers. We can be left to rot at home, our governments seemingly willing to fund this new form of detention.

  I believe that it was me who ten years ago coined the popular adage “We Are all Palestinians” – like the Palestinians, I thought at the time, we aren’t even allowed to name our oppressor…

  

• "The Latest Stage In Our Descent To The Bottom": Deutsche Bank Asks Top Managers To Skip Month's Salary In Act Of "Solidarity"
  "The Latest Stage In Our Descent To The Bottom": Deutsche Bank Asks Top Managers To Skip Month's Salary In Act Of "Solidarity"
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 05/22/2020 – 18:59

  Last week we reported that Wall Street bonuses are expected to drop by up to 30% this year due to the deep cuts to revenues recorded by banks and hedge funds earlier this year as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. For some (still employed) Deutsche Bank traders the news is even worse: they may have to go without a monthly paycheck too.

  According to the FT, the German bank which has teetered on the verge of failure since 2016, has asked hundreds of its top managers to waive a month’s salary in an act of “solidarity” to help “share the pain” as coronavirus wreaks historic damage on the German economy. The bank is reportedly conscious of the optics of large pay packets at a time when millions are losing their jobs or being furloughed.

  In a conference call on Thursday, several hundred of the bank’s designated “leaders”, including many of those one level below the senior management committee, were urged to take the voluntary pay cut, people familiar with the matter told the Financial Times.

  “As our restructuring plans progress, the management board and the group management committee have decided to lead by example and give a broader group of senior managers the opportunity to be part of this initiative,” said Deutsche in a statement as it “volunteered” senior managers to agree (not that they have any choice once singled out) to a one month pay cut. “This is a voluntary measure in the entrepreneurial spirit and discipline [with which] we are running our company.”

  So far the bank does not know how many will participate in the voluntary program; and since there is practically no reward besides some truly pointless “virtue signaling” for any workers who agree to skip a month’s wage – especially since all DB employees are unlikely to get any material bonus this year again – we doubt the uptake will be significant.

  Which is not to say there will be no volunteers at all: the nine members of Deutsche’s management board, as well as those on the group management committee, have already agreed to forgo one month of their fixed pay. Of course, they are doing so purely for optical reasons so they have some ammunition for the time when Deutsche Bank requests a bailout and the bank can demonstrate its “solidarity” with the suffering German people.

  Chief executive Christian Sewing told investors at the bank’s annual shareholder meeting on Wednesday that the decision was part of an acceleration of its cost-cutting programme. “We act in this way because we in the management . . . see ourselves as responsible business owners,” he said. What he really meant is that the voluntary wage cuts will soon be involuntary…  and far more widespread as the German lender proceeds with another round of mass layoffs in the coming months.

  Germany’s largest bank is in the middle of a historic restructuring that began last summer and will cut 18,000 jobs by 2022 as it shrinks investment banking and trims its domestic retail branch network. One can now safely assume that that 18,000 number will be substantially higher.

  In the first quarter, Deutsche recorded yet another loss after tripling reserves for bad loans, as Europe’s economy entereed a deep recession amid the lockdown to slow the pandemic. It won’t be the last. Despite a one-time jump in investment bank trading revenue, executives admitted their ambition to finally reach a pre-tax profit this year would be difficult to achieve.

  One of the managing directors asked to take a pay cut summarized it best: “Staff are unhappy at this latest stage in our steady descent to the bottom,” while a second person familiar with the internal discussions said that such a voluntary move would be “akin to a gift to the bank.”

  

• MSNBC Suggests Trump Has Just 3% Support Among Blacks: Here's How They Got That Result
  MSNBC Suggests Trump Has Just 3% Support Among Blacks: Here's How They Got That Result
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 05/22/2020 – 18:45

  Following Joe Biden’s latest racial gaffe on Friday – in which he said black Trump supporters or undecided voters “ain’t black” – MSNBC went to bat for ol Joe, with a ‘yeah, but…’ poll showing that Trump has just 3% support among African Americans.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  However when one digs into the poll, conducted by Quinnipiac (and which found Biden to have an 11 point lead over Trump, and Trump’s job approval falling to 42%) we find that it surveyed just 1,323 registered voters with a 10% oversample of Democrats.

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  (h/t Mark K.)

  Twitter, by the way, is doing their best to help racist Joe as well.

  The headline writer @TwitterMoments is doing everything they can to soften the headline here @jack. We all know if Trump had done this it would say something like “Trump faces backlash for saying Black people aren’t Black it they don’t vote for him” pic.twitter.com/RZJHVIe8Mb

  — Robby Starbuck (@robbystarbuck) May 22, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  

• Michigan Gov Extends 'Stay At Home' Order 2 Weeks; Brazil Overtakes Russia As World's 2nd-Largest COVID-19 Outbreak: Live Updates
  Michigan Gov Extends 'Stay At Home' Order 2 Weeks; Brazil Overtakes Russia As World's 2nd-Largest COVID-19 Outbreak: Live Updates
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 05/22/2020 – 18:33

  Summary:

  • Michigan Gov extends stay at home order
  • Brazil overtakes Russia
  • Cali reports slight jump in new cases
  • US cases climb 1.8%, compared with 1.5% last week
  • Italy’s does 75k+ tests in a single day for first time
  • Dr. Birx offers update on state of US outbreak
  • Chinese vaccine deemed “safe” by the Lancet
  • NY lowest case count since early days of outbreak
  • NJ raises gathering limit to 25
  • Italy says vaccine won’t be ready until next year
  • NY launches program allowing pharmacists to administer COVID tests
  • GM delays plan to ramp up production
  • Spain lifts lockdown conditions in Madrid
  • Chinese airline to restart flights from US next month
  • India reports record jump in cases as lockdown eases
  • Russia reports record jump in deaths
  • Russian ‘hot nurse’ punished for accidentally exposing underwear due to ‘see-through’ PPE
  • UN warns of looming collapse of Yemen’s health-care system
  • Bulgaria allows EU residents to enter country
  • Brazil becomes sixth country to hit 20k COVID deaths
  • Thailand extends state of emergency even as no new cases reported
  • Russia, Brazil drive largest daily jump in new cases
  • Australia’s largest state, New South Wales, allows up to 50 people in restaurants and bars

  * * *

  Update (1800ET): Get ready for another round of “reopen now” protests in Lansing.

  Roughly 24 hours after announcing a relaxation of the state’s stay at home order to permit appointment-only shopping and gatherings of under 10 people, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer extended the state’s stay at home order for another two weeks, giving the stock market something to panic about when it reopens on Tuesday.

  Many had expected Whitmer to extend the order, albeit with fewer restrictions. During a press briefing, she insisted that while the data are moving in the right direction, “We are not out of the woods yet.” The order, which was set to expire on May 28, will instead expire on June 12.

  Notably, Whitmer is making this decision – which will lead to more economic devastation and destroyed livelihoods in a critical midwestern swing state that President Trump narrowly won in 2016 – one day after President Trump, who has repeatedly lambasted the governor on twitter, paid a visit to a Ford Factory in the state, where he again refused to wear a mask (something he insists would be “un-presidential”), arousing the anger of the state’s attorney general.

  The order has been partially relaxed in the northern part of the state, and manufacturing has also been allowed to resume on a limited basis.

  Here’s more from the Detroit Free Press:

  Gov. Gretchen Whitmer on Friday extended her stay-at-home order past its scheduled May 28 expiration to June 12, adding that public venues such as theaters, gyms and casinos would remain closed.

  She said while coronavirus cases and deaths are clearly declining, “we are not out of the woods yet.”

  “If we’re going to lower the chance of a second wave and continue to protect our neighbors and loved ones from the spread of this virus, we must continue to do our part by staying safer at home,” she said in a statement first reported by the Free Press.

  Whitmer’s announcement comes a day after she made several changes to further relax a sweeping stay-at-home order that has been in place since March, allowing social gatherings of 10 people or less immediately and telling retail businesses that sell goods they can reopen to customers for appointment-only shopping Tuesday.

  That change also allows for nonemergency dental and doctor services to resume next Friday and Whitmer said Thursday that she would continue to relax the order as warranted by the data. She had previously allowed some retail businesses, such as garden stores and bicycle repair shops to reopen, and at 12:01 a.m. Friday, bars, restaurants and other businesses and offices on the Upper Peninsula and in northern Michigan around Traverse City, could open to customers, provided they limited their customers, made sure people stayed 6 feet apart and required masks.

  Manufacturing and construction have resumed as well, under strict regulations. But many parts of Whitmer’s rules — which have been challenged in court and led to protests at the state Capitol — continue to disrupt the lives of Michiganders.

  In other news, Brazil has finally overtaken Russia as the country with the world’s second-largest outbreak (note: as of 1830ET, the latest data haven’t yet been incorporated into the chart below, but it should update shortly), after only the US.

  * * *

  Update (1540ET): AfricaNews reports that the number of confirmed cases in Africa has passed 100,000 as epidemiologists and scientists on the Continent and elsewhere have marveled at the coronavirus’s relatively slow spread across Africa, which has largely avoided the full-scale collapse of countries’ health-care systems – or anything even close to that scenario.

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  Africa’s five worst-hit nations are as follows:

  South Africa: 19,137

  Egypt: 15,003

  Algeria: 7,728

  Morocco: 7,300

  Nigeria: 7,016

  South Africa has been the worst-hit across the continent despite a restrictive lockdown that was initially ordered back in March. It’s also by far worst-hit country across the southern African region. In Northern Africa, Egypt has the most cases, while in West Africa, Nigeria has the biggest outbreak. Cameroon is the leader in Central Africa, with 4,288 cases while Sudan leads the Horn of Africa region with 3,138 cases.

  The global total, meanwhile, is rapidly closing in on 5.25 million.

  Back in the US, the CDC said that US cases have ticked higher over the past day as cases climb 1.8%, compared with last week’s 1.5%.

  * * *

  Update (1440ET): California has released its latest numbers, revealing a slight uptick in cases over the past day.

  • CALIFORNIA VIRUS CASES RISE 2.6%, ABOVE 7-DAY AVERAGE OF 2.37%

  Meanwhile, earlier this afternoon, Dr Birx offered an assessment on where the US stands in terms of the virus.

  All states have tested at least 2% of their population, says Dr. Birx. pic.twitter.com/3xcDR6jIW0

  — Steve Herman (@W7VOA) May 22, 2020

  #CoronavirusUSA pic.twitter.com/BJNJDHJjKV

  — Steve Herman (@W7VOA) May 22, 2020

  “A dramatic decline across the states” in percent positive per state, says Dr. Birx. #CoronavirusUSA pic.twitter.com/qTWnkLepxc

  — Steve Herman (@W7VOA) May 22, 2020

  “Still significant virus” of #COVID19 circulating in #Maryland, #DC and #Virginia, says Dr. Birx.

  — Steve Herman (@W7VOA) May 22, 2020

  District of Columbia (including northern #Virginia and two #Maryland counties) is the top metro area hot spot, according to Dr. Birx. Also concerned about Chicago.

  — Steve Herman (@W7VOA) May 22, 2020

  Metro areas #COVID19 snapshot. pic.twitter.com/topx77JI0C

  — Steve Herman (@W7VOA) May 22, 2020

  #CoronavirusNYC pic.twitter.com/esl6ZdOdLe

  — Steve Herman (@W7VOA) May 22, 2020

  “Dramatic decline” in #COVID19 cases in NYC metro area, says Dr. Birx. pic.twitter.com/z4Xfvucd31

  — Steve Herman (@W7VOA) May 22, 2020

  District of Columbia (including northern #Virginia and two #Maryland counties) is the top metro area hot spot, according to Dr. Birx. Also concerned about Chicago.

  — Steve Herman (@W7VOA) May 22, 2020

  #CoronavirusUSA pic.twitter.com/BJNJDHJjKV

  — Steve Herman (@W7VOA) May 22, 2020

  “Across the country, we are below baseline” for seasonal influenza-like illness, says Dr. Birx. pic.twitter.com/EvmutCO7Fa

  — Steve Herman (@W7VOA) May 22, 2020

  * * *

  Update (1430ET): The past week has seen more than its fair share of vaccine-related announcements, with a team of scientists from Oxford announcing plans to speed up human trials, while Dr. Fauci offered some more market-pumping positivity during a lunchtime interview with CNBC (notably, when asked about states pushing ahead with reopening, he noted that so long as people follow social distancing recommendations, everything should be fine).

  Adding another headline to the list: The Lancet has declared a Chinese vaccine candidate “safe” for human consumption.

  Lancet medical journal says a Chinese research team’s vaccine to fight #COVID19 is safe. The vaccine is the first in the world to enter Stage 2 clinical trial. pic.twitter.com/OEV7dSIHvZ

  — CGTN (@CGTNOfficial) May 22, 2020

  Remember, establishing safety was touted as the key triumph of the Moderna-NIH study that the company issued a statement about earlier this week (after its CEO inadvertently referenced the trial results publicly on Friday).

  Italy achieved a notable milestone today: conducting more than 75k+ COVID-19 tests in a single day.

  JUST IN: Italy reports 652 new cases of coronavirus and 130 new deaths.

  Total of 228,658 cases and 32,616 deaths.

  — Norbert Elekes (@NorbertElekes) May 22, 2020

  Italy’s update:

  – Number of new tests up
  – Number of new cases up
  – Number of new deaths down
  – Number of hospitalized down
  – Number of ICU patients down

  — Norbert Elekes (@NorbertElekes) May 22, 2020

  NEW: Italy conducted more than 75,000 coronavirus tests in a single day for the first time since the outbreak began.

  — Norbert Elekes (@NorbertElekes) May 22, 2020

  And today’s numbers from the UK…

  As of 9am 22 May, there have been 3,231,921 tests, with 140,497 tests on 21 May.

  2,144,626 people have been tested of which 254,195 tested positive.

  As of 5pm on 21 May, of those tested positive for coronavirus, across all settings, 36,393 have sadly died. pic.twitter.com/tOO6oMwtK7

  — Department of Health and Social Care (@DHSCgovuk) May 22, 2020

  * * *

  Update (1225ET): In New Jersey, Gov Phil Murphy reported a 0.9% jump in new cases Friday, in-line with the 7-day average.

  NEW: We’ve received 1,394 new positive #COVID19 test results, bringing our statewide total to 152,719.

  The daily positivity rate for tests from May 18th is 14 percent. pic.twitter.com/ZY74VXzA3W

  — Governor Phil Murphy (@GovMurphy) May 22, 2020

  Sadly, we’ve lost another 146 members of our New Jersey family to #COVID19 related complications, bringing our statewide total to 10,985.

  Thousands of lives cut short by #COVID19 across our state. This is our family. We all mourn with those left behind. pic.twitter.com/p1ITkssRxW

  — Governor Phil Murphy (@GovMurphy) May 22, 2020

  Hospitalizations and ICU admissions also continued to decline.

  * * *

  Update (1140ET): As the AP reveals that NY leads the nation in nursing home deaths (with some 5,300 recorded), Cuomo just expertly deflected from a burgeoning controversy over his decision to send COVID-19 patients back to nursing homes, helping to kickstart or aggravate some of the deadliest outbreaks. Cuomo has defended the decision as intended to ensure nursing home residents wouldn’t left to just hang around hospitals, when, in hindsight, they probably should have been admitted.

  • CUOMO: SUPPORTS LEGALIZATION OF MARIJUANA PASSAGE

  After dragging his feet on marijuana legalization for years (one of the biggest complaints of Cuomo’s progressive critics is that after becoming one of the first states to approve medical marijuana, NY has basically given up on reform in that area), it looks like legalization is back on the agenda.

  New COVID-19 cases in New York State reported Friday  climbed by another 0.4% as the number of infections reported continued to slow, Cuomo added. “This is a level now that is lower than when we first began,” he said.

  Cuomo also announced his state would adopt the CDC guidance on HQX.

  In another milestone: NYC has recorded 58 days without a pedestrian traffic death, the longest stretch since the city started tracking the numbers in 1983.

  In Italy, meanwhile, the head of the Italian Medicines Agency, the national authority responsible for drug regulation in Italy, said Friday that a vaccine for the virus likely wouldn’t be ready until next year.

  AIFA director-general Nicola Magrini told reporters that studies of five or six vaccines are showing promise but “the reasonable time to think about a vaccine is next spring, next summer.”

  “I don’t think there will be any vaccine for September available,” Magrini said. “Let’s hope they are developed by next year and let’s hope there’s more than one, and the production capacities are adequate.”

  * * *

  Update (1115ET): Just in time for MDW, New Jersey Gov Phil Murphy just decided to raise the limit on public gatherings to 25 people, while his colleague, NY Gov Andrew Cuomo announced the start of a previously announced pilot program that allows pharmacists to administer coronavirus tests.

  Watch Cuomo live:

  Holding a briefing with updates on #Coronavirus. Watch Live: https://t.co/wR91mc9Sib

  — Andrew Cuomo (@NYGovCuomo) May 22, 2020

  * * *

  Update (0955ET): GM has reportedly delayed plans to ramp up production at one of its Michigan plants next week due to a shortage of critical components from Mexico.

  As many in the auto industry predicted, parts shortages out of Mexico will slow down the automaker plans to accelerate production at plants. $GM will have to delay plans to ramp up pickup production due to shortages from south of the border.

  — Phil LeBeau (@Lebeaucarnews) May 22, 2020

  Instead of introducing another shift or two this week, GM will need to delay the production ramp until next week. Meanwhile, across the US, finding new American-made cars remains difficult as dealerships in some states have only just begun to reopen.

  * * *

  Update (0935ET): After a weeks-long delay, the Spanish government has finally started lifting lockdown conditions in the capital, Madrid.

  Here’s more on that from Al Jazeera:

  Spanish authorities will lift part of the lockdown restrictions in Madrid on Monday after the pace of the coronavirus contagion in the region slowed down, the Madrid regional health department said.

  The restrictions in Madrid are now the same as in most of the country that started phasing out the lockdown in early May.

  Bars and restaurants in the capital will be allowed to reopen terraces and groups of up to 10 people will be allowed to meet.

  Spain has seen daily COVID-19-linked deaths drop to ~100 a day or fewer over the past week as the country’s strict lockdown has clearly helped quash what was once one of Europe’s deadliest outbreaks.

  * * *

  Update (0920ET): Local press has reported that a major Chinese airline will re-start some flights from the US next month, the first stirring of what some expect will be a mini-revival in passenger travel in the coming months, even as most analysts believe it will take years for air traffic to return to pre-COVID-19 levels.

  • CHINA CAAC TO ALLOW SOME FLIGHTS FROM U.S. IN JUNE: 21ST HERALD

  * * *

  One of the most frustrating aspects of the coronavirus is how it seems to respond differently to the same basic strategies imposed by different governments. For example, in China, and across the US and Europe, lockdowns have coincided with sharp reductions in the spread of the outbreak.

  But despite what has been repeatedly described as one of the most strict in the world, the rate at which new coronavirus infections are being confirmed has shown no sign of slowing after nearly 2 months (the lockdown started March 25). As we reported on Tuesday, the number of reported coronavirus cases in India crossed 100,000 earlier in the week, even as most parts of the country began to reopen businesses as India’s lockdown entered a new phase.

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  Three days later, India registered its biggest jump in coronavirus cases since the start of the outbreak, with 6,000 new cases as the country loosens a nationwide lockdown.

  Additionally, India relaxed some of its travel restrictions on Friday to permit members of the Indian diaspora to reenter the country.

  Meanwhile, in Russia, which is now home to the world’s second-largest outbreak (behind only the US) has reported 150 new deaths, a record daily rise, taking the country’s official national death toll from the virus to 3,249.

  In another somewhat more lighthearted story from the world’s second-worst-hit country, a nurse working at a hospital in Russia’s central Tula region was suspended from her job for the mishap, which she says she didn’t realize until it was pointed out by a colleague. Several high-ranking government officials have weighed in, arguing that the hospital should reverse the punishment, according to multiple media reports.

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  The UN warned on Friday that as the coronavirus spreads across Yemen, the country’s health care system has, in effect, collapsed. Yemen will need emergency support from the international community to prevent yet another humanitarian crisis in  country that, after Syria, has been among the most war-torn places in the world for a large chunk of the last decade.

  Using data from Johns Hopkins, Al Jazeera developed a chart showing how the coronavirus pandemic reached the 5 million mark.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  The number of new cases reported globally remained well above recent levels as Russia, Brazil and India pushed the number of new cases to a daily record, as outbreaks in the US and Europe slow while Russia and Brazil report unprecedented growth.

  Additionally, Brazil has become the 6th country in the world to report more than 20,000 deaths from the coronavirus as interim Health Minister Eduardo Pazuello warned that while the level of infection had decreased in certain areas in capital cities, its spread across the rest of the country was “inevitable.”

  As EU member states slowly lift travel restrictions on neighbors, while the UK devises new quarantine restrictions for foreign travelers, Bulgaria has scrapped its ban on visitors from the EU, according to the country’s health ministry.

  Overly optimistic reports about preliminary vaccine trials have set off a handful of biotech pumps in recent days, to the delight of hedge funds that have piled into the sector, Oxford researchers, who have been among the most bullish in the world about the prospects for a vaccine in the near term, reported Friday that they have already immunized 1,000 people during the first phase of the trial, and that the research would be accelerated to begin recruiting the 10k volunteers they will need for the second stage of the study.

  Despite reporting zero new coronavirus cases and deaths on Friday, Thailand’s Center for COVID-19 Situation Administration proposed an extension of the country’s state of emergency measures until June to allow more time for new easing measures to be adopted.

  In the UK, BoJo’s government has extended its mortgage payment holiday scheme for homeowners in financial distress for another 3 months. In Panama, health officials say 59 migrants stranded at the Panamanian Migration Center have tested positive for the virus.

  Finally, Australia’s largest state, New South Wales, has said restrictions imposed to slow the spread of coronavirus will be eased to allow cafes, restaurants and pubs to have up to 50 seated patrons, which should allow many smaller restaurants to move back to 100% capacity. The country also extended its ban on cruise ships for another 3 months, until Sept. 17.

  And before we go, during his visit to a Ford factory in Michigan last night (where he infuriated the state’s AG by refusing to wear a mask after repeatedly clashing with the state’s Democratic governor), President Trump said that he wouldn’t be closing down the country again if a “second wave” of the virus does hit.

  The FDA on Friday announced plans to crack down on faulty antibody tests, publicly listed dozens of antibody tests that have not yet been proved to work, a major step in its efforts to regulate these exams.

  

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• Auto Registrations In Europe Plunge 76% In April, The Largest Drop On Record
  Auto Registrations In Europe Plunge 76% In April, The Largest Drop On Record
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 05/22/2020 – 02:45

  The hits just keep on coming for the auto industry. Frozen amidst a global lockdown due to the coronavirus, auto sales and registrations data continues to be atrocious around the world and the industry that was mired in recession even before the pandemic became a problem continues to face odds that look insurmountable. 

  The latest batch of cheery optimism came out of Europe, where auto registrations plunged 76% in April. According to the European Automobile Manufacturers Association, the number of new cars sold fell from 1,143,046 to just 270,682 YOY. 

  The ACEA said: “The first full month with COVID-19 restrictions in place resulted in the strongest monthly drop in car demand since records began.” 

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  The data was driven by each of the 27 EU markets recording double digit declines in April, with Italy and Spain spearheading the misery, posting losses of 97.6% and 96.5% respectively. Sales plunged 61.1% in Germany and France dealt with an 88.8% contraction in April. The U.K. also posted a sales drop of 97.3%, according to CNBC.

  Sequentially, the numbers are worse than March, when new car sales fell 55%. It was in mid-March that most European countries instituted their lockdowns. 

  The global auto industry can only be best described as in the midst of imploding into itself right now. Just a couple of days ago, we reported the news that China NEV sales plunged 43% last month. 

  Last month we also reported that April was going to be the worst month on record for auto sales. 

  Earlier this month we noted how dealers were desperately turning to incentives to try and move inventory off their lots. The consequences of the shut down have been immense. Toyota reported a 54% sales decline in April, for example. Hyundai and Mazda reported drops of 39% and 45%, respectively. 

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  Recall we also wrote last month  that ships full of cars were being denied entry to ports in California due to the massive inventory glut. Such was the case on April 24 when a cargo of 2,000 Nissan SUVs was approaching the port of Los Angeles. They were told to drop anchor about a mile from the port and remain there.

  John Felitto, a senior vice president for the U.S. unit of Norwegian shipping company Wallenius Wilhelmsen said:

  “Dealers aren’t really accepting cars and fleet sales are down because rental-car and fleet operators aren’t taking delivery either. This is different from anything we’ve seen before. Everyone is full to the brim.”

  “There are basically no sales,” we wrote about the auto industry heading into April. One automotive researcher said of the industry-wide crisis: “The whole world is turned upside down right now.”

  

• How The British Empire Created And Killed George Orwell
  How The British Empire Created And Killed George Orwell
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 05/22/2020 – 02:00

  Authored by Martin Sieff via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

  The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), happily amplified by the Public Broadcasting System (PBS) in the United States which carries its World News, continues to pump out its regular dreck about the alleged economic chaos in Russia and the imagined miserable state of the Russian people.

  It is all lies of course. Patrick Armstrong‘s authoritative regular updates including his reports on this website are a necessary corrective to such crude propaganda.

  But amid all their countless fiascoes and failures in every other field (including the highest per capita death rate from COVID-19 in Europe, and one of the highest in the world) the British remain world leaders at managing global Fake News. As long as the tone remains restrained and dignified, literally any slander will be swallowed by the credulous and every foul scandal and shame can be confidently covered up.

  None of this would have surprised the late, great George Orwell. It is fashionable these days to endlessly trot him out as a zombie (dead but alleged to be living – so that he cannot set the record straight himself) critic of Russia and all the other global news outlets outside the control of the New York and London plutocracies. And it is certainly true, that Orwell, whose hatred and fear of communism was very real, served before his death as an informer to MI-5, British domestic security.

  But it was not the Soviet Union, Stalin’s show trials or his experiences with the Trotskyite POUM group in Barcelona and Catalonia during the Spanish Civil War that “made Orwell Orwell” as the Anglo-America Conventional Wisdom Narrative has it. It was his visceral loathing of the British Empire – compounded during World War II by his work for the BBC which he eventually gave up in disgust.

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  And it was his BBC experiences that gave Orwell the model for his unforgettable Ministry of Truth in his great classic “1984.”

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  George Orwell had worked in one of the greatest of all world centers of Fake News. And he knew it.

  More profoundly, the great secret of George Orwell’s life has been hiding in plain sight for 70 years since he died. Orwell became a sadistic torturer in the service of the British Empire during his years in Burma, modern Myanmar. And as a fundamentally decent man, he was so disgusted by what he had done that he spent the rest of his life not just atoning but slowly and willfully committing suicide before his heartbreakingly premature death while still in his 40s.

  The first important breakthrough in this fundamental reassessment of Orwell comes from one of the best books on him. “Finding George Orwell in Burma” was published in 2005 and written by “Emma Larkin”, a pseudonym for an outstanding American journalist in Asia whose identity I have long suspected to be an old friend and deeply respected colleague, and whose continued anonymity I respect.

  “Larkin” took the trouble to travel widely in Burma during its repressive military dictatorship and her superb research reveals crucial truths about Orwell. According to his own writings and his deeply autobiographical novel “Burmese Days” Orwell loathed all his time as a British colonial policeman in Burma, modern Myanmar. The impression he systematically gives in that novel and in his classic essay “Shooting an Elephant” is of a bitterly lonely, alienated, deeply unhappy man, despised and even loathed by his fellow British colonialists throughout society and a ludicrous failure at his job.

  This was not, however, the reality that “Larkin” uncovered. All surviving witnesses agreed that Orwell – Eric Blair as he then still was – remained held in high regard during his years in the colonial police service. He was a senior and efficient officer. Indeed it was precisely his knowledge of crime, vice, murder and the general underside of human society during his police colonial service while still in his 20s that gave him the street smarts, experience, and moral authority to see through all the countless lies of right and left, of American capitalists and British imperialists as well as European totalitarians for the rest of his life.

  The second revelation to throw light on what Orwell had to do in those years comes from one of the most famous and horrifying scenes in “1984.” Indeed, almost nothing even in the memoirs of Nazi death camp survivors has anything like it: That is the scene where “O’Brien”, the secret police officer tortures the “hero” (if he can be called that) Winston Smith by locking his face to a cage in which a starving rat is ready to pounce and devour him if it is opened.

  I remember thinking, when I was first exposed to the power of “1984” at my outstanding Northern Irish school, “What kind of mind could invent something as horrific as that?”) The answer was so obvious that I like everyone else missed it entirely.

  Orwell did not “invent” or “come up” with the idea as a fictional plot device: It was just a routine interrogation technique used by the British colonial police in Burma, modern Myanmar. Orwell never “brilliantly” invented such a diabolical technique of torture as a literary device. He did not have to imagine it. It was routinely employed by himself and his colleagues. That was how and why the British Empire worked so well for so long. They knew what they were doing. And what they did was not nice at all.

  A final step in my enlightenment about Orwell, whose writings I have revered all my life – and still do – was provided by our alarmingly brilliant elder daughter about a decade ago when she too was given “1984” to read as part of her school curriculum. Discussing it with her one day, I made some casual obvious remark that Orwell was in the novel as Winston Smith.

  My American-raised teenager then naturally corrected me. “No, Dad, ” she said. “Orwell isn’t Winston, or he’s not just Winston. He’s O’Brien too. O’Brien actually likes Winston. He doesn’t want to torture him. He even admires him. But he does it because it’s his duty.”

  She was right, of course.

  But how could Orwell the great enemy of tyranny, lies and torture so identify with and understand so well the torturer? It was because he himself had been one.

  “Emma Larkin’s” great book brings out that Orwell as a senior colonial police officer in the 1920s was a leading figure in a ruthless war waged by the British imperial authorities against drug and human trafficking crime cartels every bit as vicious and ruthless as those in modern Ukraine, Columbia and Mexico today. It was a “war on terror” where anything and everything was permitted to “get the job done.”

  The young Eric Blair was so disgusted by the experience that when he returned home he abandoned the respectable middle class life style he had always enjoyed and became, not just an idealistic socialist as many in those days did, but a penniless, starving tramp. He even abandoned his name and very identity. He suffered a radical personality collapse: He killed Eric Blair. He became George Orwell.

  Orwell’s early famous book “Down and Out in London and Paris” is a testament to how much he literally tortured and humiliated himself in those first years back from Burma. And for the rest of his life.

  He ate miserably badly, was skinny and ravaged by tuberculosis and other health problems, smoked heavily and denied himself any decent medical care. His appearance was always abominable. His friend, the writer Malcolm Muggeridge speculated that Orwell wanted to remake himself as a caricature of a tramp.

  The truth clearly was that Orwell never forgave himself for what he did as a young agent of empire in Burma. Even his literally suicidal decision to go to the most primitive, cold, wet and poverty-stricken corner of creation in a remote island off Scotland to finish “1984” in isolation before he died was consistent with the merciless punishments he had inflicted on himself all his life since leaving Burma.

  The conclusion is clear: For all the intensity of George Orwell’s experiences in Spain, his passion for truth and integrity, his hatred of the abuse of power did not originate from his experiences in the Spanish Civil War. They all flowed directly from his own actions as an agent of the British Empire in Burma in the 1920s: Just as his creation of the Ministry of Truth flowed directly from his experience of working in the Belly of the Beast of the BBC in the early 1940s.

  George Orwell spent more than 20 years slowly committing suicide because of the terrible crimes he committed as a torturer for the British Empire in Burma. We can therefore have no doubt what his horror and disgust would be at what the CIA did under President George W. Bush in its “Global War on Terror.” Also, Orwell would identify at once and without hesitation the real fake news flowing out of New York, Atlanta, Washington and London today, just as he did in the 1930s and 1940s.

  Let us therefore reclaim and embrace The Real George Orwell: The cause of fighting to prevent a Third World War depends on it.

  

• Infected US Troops & Re-Emerging ISIS: Dueling 'Disinfo War' In Syria Turns Bizarre
  Infected US Troops & Re-Emerging ISIS: Dueling ‘Disinfo War’ In Syria Turns Bizarre
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 05/22/2020 – 01:00

  After the coronavirus pandmic gripped the globe and world headlines, the ‘information war’ in Syria and the broader Middle East took on a bizarre tone. 

  Starting late last month the Kremlin publicly charged that the Pentagon was keeping mum on a large-scale COVID-19 outbreak among the some one- to two-thousand American troops stationed in northeast Syria.

  The suggestion was that infected troops would become super-spreaders among the Syrian population under US occupation. At the time the Russian Foreign Ministry issued the perhaps unsupported assertion, “We receive reports of explosive Coronavirus infection spread among the US servicemen and of these facts being kept mum on.”

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  Pundits in the West in turn said Russia was genning up a ‘virus scare’ meant to damage US credibility in the region and among the local population where it had a presence. But at the time the vast majority of cases among the US military were to be found in the US Navy, with zero official reports of the disease among US personnel in Syria.

  The US Department slammed what it called Russia’s “disinformation campaign” in Syria to “exploit” the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a special briefing on the situation earlier this month.

  “Russian disinformation claims that the United States or Western powers are the origin of the virus while instilling uncertainty about the international response,” US special envoy James Jeffrey said. “Through such tactics, Russia clearly signals it’s willing to take advantage of a global crisis in order to pursue its own destabilizing agenda without any regard for the human consequences.”

  However, no doubt if there were an outbreak on American bases in Syria, where special forces are still assisting the Kurdish-led SDF in “securing” oil and gas fields, Pentagon brass would keep a lid on it for security concerns. 

  The Kremlin also warned that a “catastrophic” coronavirus outbreak could soon devastate refugee camps and prisons under US control in Syria, something which the UN and others have since voiced concern about. 

  How ISIS is exploiting the coronavirus pandemic https://t.co/U0kJPLUviS #FoxNews

  — Hollie McKay (@holliesmckay) May 20, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “Washington bears full responsibility for the civilian population and provision for their humanitarian needs on territories under its control east of the Euphrates and in the south near al-Tanf, where the notorious Rukban camp for the internally displaced people is located,” a statement said last month.

  Fast-forward a month. On Thursday the Russian Foreign Ministry in fresh attacks on US operations in Syria charged that the US is facilitating a new ISIS resurgence, after the terror group had long been driven to operate ‘underground’. 

  Interestingly Kremlin spokeswoman Maria Zakharova linked the COVID-19 pandemic to the Islamic State’s reemergence taking place right under Washington’s nose. “We monitor the deterioration of the situation in the non-government-controlled areas in north-eastern Syria. (ISIS) decided to take advantage of the conditions of the spread of the coronavirus and escalated their aggression,” she told a news conference Thursday.

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  “Between 10 and 15 May alone, the terrorists carried out more than 20 attacks against Kurdish forces in the provinces of Deir Ezzor and Raqqa, killing more than 20 people and wounding more than 30 others.” She continued, “We were alerted by disturbing reports of the escape of seven ISIS elements from a prison at the Al-Hawl Camp for the displaced.” 

  She then pivoted to the US occupation in Syria’s North: “all these facts come as a new confirmation that the United States, which occupies areas beyond the Euphrates and its allies, does not pay attention to the population,” Zakharova said.

  Syria is but the latest contested sphere where coronavirus has figured central in geopolitical calculations and an information war between the US and its rivals – China being first and top of the list where COVID-19’s origins has largely defined the debate. 

  

• The Slippery Slope To Despotism: Paved With Lockdowns, Raids, & Forced Vaccinations
  The Slippery Slope To Despotism: Paved With Lockdowns, Raids, & Forced Vaccinations
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Fri, 05/22/2020 – 00:05

  Authored by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

  “You have no right not to be vaccinated, you have no right not to wear a mask, you have no right to open up your business… And if you refuse to be vaccinated, the state has the power to literally take you to a doctor’s office and plunge a needle into your arm.”

  – Alan Dershowitz, Harvard law professor

  You have no rights.

  That’s the lesson the government wants us to learn from this COVID-19 business.

  Well, the government is wrong.

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  For years now, the powers-that-be—those politicians and bureaucrats who think like tyrants and act like petty dictators regardless of what party they belong to—have attempted to brainwash us into believing that we have no right to think for ourselves, make decisions about our health, protect our homes and families and businesses, act in our best interests, demand accountability and transparency from government, or generally operate as if we are in control of our own lives.

  We have every right, and you know why? Because we were born free.

  As the Declaration of Independence states, we are endowed by our Creator with certain inalienable rights—to life, liberty, property and the pursuit of happiness—that no government can take away from us.

  Unfortunately, that hasn’t stopped the government from constantly trying to usurp our freedoms at every turn. Indeed, the nature of government is such that it invariably oversteps its limits, abuses its authority, and flexes its totalitarian muscles.

  Take this COVID-19 crisis, for example.

  What started out as an apparent effort to prevent a novel coronavirus from sickening the nation (and the world) has become yet another means by which world governments (including our own) can expand their powers, abuse their authority, and further oppress their constituents.

  Until now, the police state has been more circumspect in its power grabs, but this latest state of emergency has brought the beast out of the shadows.

  We are on a slippery slope to outright despotism.

  This road we are traveling is paved with lockdowns, SWAT team raids, mass surveillance and forced vaccinations. It is littered with the debris of our First and Fourth Amendment freedoms.

  This is what we have to look forward to in the months and years to come unless we can find some way to regain control over our runaway government.

  The government has made no secret of its plans.

  Just follow the money trail, and you’ll get a sense of what’s in store: more militarized police, more SWAT team raids, more surveillance, more lockdowns, more strong-armed tactics aimed at suppressing dissent and forcing us to comply with the government’s dictates.

  It’s chilling to think about, but it’s not surprising.

  We’ve been warned.

  Remember that Pentagon training video created by the Army for U.S. Special Operations Command? The one that anticipates the future domestic political and social problems the government is grooming its armed forces to solve through the use of martial law?

  The chilling five-minute training video, obtained by The Intercept through a FOIA request and made available online, paints a dystopian picture of the future bedeviled by “criminal networks,” “substandard infrastructure,” “religious and ethnic tensions,” “impoverishment, slums,” “open landfills, over-burdened sewers,” a “growing mass of unemployed,” and an urban landscape in which the prosperous economic elite must be protected from the impoverishment of the have nots.

  But here’s the kicker: what they’re really talking about is martial law, packaged as a well-meaning and overriding concern for the nation’s security.

  This COVID-19 crisis is pushing us that much closer to that dystopian vision becoming a present-day reality.

  For starters, let’s talk about the COVID-19 stormtroopers, SWAT team raids and ongoing flare-ups of police brutality.

  With millions of dollars in stimulus funds being directed towards policing agencies across the country, the federal government plans to fight this COVID-19 virus with riot gear, gas masks, ballistic helmets, drones, and hi-tech surveillance technology.

  Indeed, although crime rates have fallen dramatically in the midst of this global COVID-19 lockdown, there’s been no relief from the brutality and violence of the American police state.

  While the majority of the country has been social distancing under varying degrees of lockdowns, it’s been business as usual for the nation’s SWAT teams and police trained to shoot first and ask questions later.

  In Kentucky, plain-clothed cops in unmarked cars used a battering ram to break down Breonna Taylor’s door and carry out a no-knock raid on her home after midnight. Fearing a home invasion, the 26-year-old emergency medical technician and her boyfriend—who had been in bed at the time of the invasion—called 911 and prepared to defend themselves. Taylor’s boyfriend shot one of the intruders—later identified as police—in the leg. Police fired at least 20 shots into the apartment and a neighboring home, killing Taylor. The drug dealer who was the target of the late-night raid lived 10 miles away and had already been arrested prior to the raid on Taylor’s home.

  In Illinois, police opened fire in a subway station, shooting a 33-year-old man who allegedly resisted their attempts to tackle and arrest him for violating a city ordinance by passing between two cars of a moving train. Ariel Roman, a short-order cook, claimed he was suffering from an anxiety attack when he was “harassed, chased, tackled, pepper-sprayed, tasered and shot twice” by police.

  In Maryland, police dispatched on a nuisance call to break up a crowd of neighborhood kids( half of them teenagers, and the other half youngsters around 4 and 5 years old) gathered in an apartment complex parking lot opened fire on a 29-year-old man seen exiting his car with a gun. An eyewitness claimed “the officer pointed a flashlight and his gun at the group immediately and began chasing and shooting a minute or two after getting out of the patrol car.” Police reportedly shot the man after he threw down his gun and ran in the opposite direction.

  In Virginia, more than 80 local, state, and federal police agents risked spreading COVID-19 to “a highly vulnerable population” when they raided a low income, public housing community in an effort to crack down on six individuals suspected of selling, on average, $20 to $100 worth of drugs.

  In Texas, a SWAT team backed up with a military tank Armored Personnel Carrier raided Big Daddy Zane’s Bar whose owner and patrons were staging a peaceful First and Second Amendment protest of the governor’s shutdown orders.

  Police have even been called out to shut down churches, schools and public parks and beaches that have been found “in violation” of various lockdown orders.

  Now there’s talk of mobilizing the military to deliver forced vaccinations, mass surveillance in order to carry out contact tracing, and heavy fines and jail time for those who dare to venture out without a mask, congregate in worship without the government’s blessing, or re-open their  businesses without the government’s say-so.

  There are rumblings that the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) will start thermal screenings to monitor passengers’ temperatures in coming weeks. This is in addition to the virtual strip searches that have become routine aspects of airport security.  

  Restaurants in parts of the country are being tasked with keeping daily logs of phone numbers, emails, and arrival times for everybody who participates in dine-services, with no mention of how long such records will be kept on file, with whom they will be shared, and under what circumstances.

  With the help of Google and Nest cameras, hospitals are morphing into real-time surveillance centers with round-the-clock surveillance cameras monitoring traffic in patients’ rooms. Forget patient privacy, however. Google has a track record of sharing surveillance footage with police.

  And then rounding out the power-grabs, the Senate just voted to give police access to web browsing data without a warrant, which would dramatically expand the government’s Patriot Act surveillance powers. The Senate also voted to give Attorney General William Barr the ability to look through the web browsing history of any American — including journalists, politicians, and political rivals — without a warrant, just by saying it is relevant to an investigation. If enacted, privacy experts warn  that the new provisions threaten to undermine the free press by potentially preventing the media from exposing abuses of power or acting as a watchdog against political leaders.

  If we haven’t already crossed over, we’re skating dangerously close to that line that keeps us on the functioning side of a constitutional republic. It won’t take much to push us over that edge into a full-blown banana republic.

  In many ways, this is just more of the same heavy-handed tactics we’ve been seeing in recent years but with one major difference: this COVID-19 state of emergency has invested government officials (and those who view their lives as more valuable than ours) with a sanctimonious, self-righteous, arrogant, Big Brother Knows Best approach to top-down governing, and the fall-out can be seen far and wide.

  It’s an ugly, self-serving mindset that views the needs, lives and rights of “we the people” as insignificant when compared to those in power.

  That’s how someone who should know better such as Alan Dershowitz, a former Harvard law professor, can suggest that a free people—born in freedom, endowed by their Creator with inalienable rights, and living in a country birthed out of a revolutionary struggle for individual liberty—have no rights to economic freedom, to bodily integrity, or to refuse to comply with a government order with which they disagree.

  According to Dershowitz, who has become little more than a legal apologist for the power elite, “You have no right not to be vaccinated, you have no right not to wear a mask, you have no right to open up your business… And if you refuse to be vaccinated, the state has the power to literally take you to a doctor’s office and plunge a needle into your arm.”

  Dershowitz is wrong: while the courts may increasingly defer to the government’s brand of Nanny State authoritarianism, we still have rights.

  The government may try to abridge those rights, it may refuse to recognize them, it may even attempt to declare martial law and nullify them, but it cannot litigate, legislate or forcefully eradicate them out of existence.

  Up to now, we’ve been largely passive participants in this experiment in self-governance. Our inaction and inattention has left us at the mercy of power-hungry politicians, corrupt corporations and brutal, government-funded militias.

  Wake up, America.

  As I  make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, these ongoing violations of our rights—this attitude by the government that we have no rights—this tyrannical movement that is overtaking our constitutional republic and  gaining in momentum and power by the minute—this incessant auction block in which government officials appointed to represent our best interests keep selling us out to the highest bidder—all of these betrayals scream for a response.

  To quote the great Rod Serling: “If we don’t listen to that scream—and if we don’t respond to it—we may well wind up sitting amidst our own rubble, looking for the truck that hit us—or the bomb that pulverized us. Get the license number of whatever it was that destroyed the dream. And I think we will find that the vehicle was registered in our own name.”

  

• Oil Is Crashing After China's "Great Uncertainty" Statement
  Oil Is Crashing After China’s “Great Uncertainty” Statement
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 05/21/2020 – 23:46

  Although Beijing announced some new stimulus measures, it appears markets prefer to focus on the “great uncertainty” that Chinese officials see ahead (due to the coronavirus) leading to a decision to not release a target for economic growth has thrown the “v-shaped” recovery narrative out the window (for now).

  “We have not set a specific target for economic growth this year,” Li said, speaking in the Great Hall of the People.

  “This is because our country will face some factors that are difficult to predict in its development due to the great uncertainty regarding the Covid-19 pandemic and the world economic and trade environment.”

  WTI has crashed over 9%, with the July contract trading back down at a $30 handle…

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  And US futures are notably weaker with Nasdaq leading the drop…

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  The shifting away from a hard target for output growth breaks with decades of Communist Party planning habits and is an admission of the deep rupture that the disease has caused.

  “The nascent demand recovery is still vulnerable, and the drop in prices today is an injection of reality,” said Victor Shum, vice president of energy consulting at IHS Markit in Singapore.

  “China not giving a GDP target means they are not quite certain about the recovery yet.”

  The question marks over China’s economy come as relations with the US deteriorate dramatically, clearly damaging the “v” or “u” shaped recovery narrative that has seemed to dominate both equity and oil markets in recent days.

  

• China Is Hoarding PPE Again As It Braces For COVID-19's "Second Wave"
  China Is Hoarding PPE Again As It Braces For COVID-19’s “Second Wave”
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 05/21/2020 – 23:45

  A while back, we reported on one notable US Intel leak claiming Beijing deliberately waited until Jan. 22 to warn the world about the possibility of a widespread outbreak (before that, Beijing insisted there was no evidence of human to human transmission, implying that this would likely be an isolated incident) so the CCP would have time to grab up all the PPE and other vital supplies.

  That was why, when the tidal wave of infections finally hit in the US, a sudden and inexplicable shortage of PPE forced nurses and doctors in some of the most notorious hotspots – including NYC – to work without masks and gowns. Many used garbage bags, or used one disposable mask for a week or more.

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  Now, Fox News reports that the CCP appears to be gobbling up all the capacity once again as businessmen complain about suppliers warning about being unable to process new orders.

  China’s Communist Party is again seizing factory lines churning out the world’s supply of medical safety gear — sparking fears the country is preparing for a second wave of the coronavirus, American traders in China told The Post.

  New Yorker Moshe Malamud, who has done business in China for over two decades, was moving tens of millions of pieces of protective gear to the U.S. at the height of the crisis but said suppliers in recent weeks had been overwhelmed with orders from the Chinese government.

  “I was placing a larger order with one of the bigger distributors and he tells me, ‘I can complete this order but after this we’ve been contracted by the Chinese government to produce 250 million gowns,’” said Malamud, who lived in China for a decade before founding aviation company M2Jets.

  Thermometer makers have also been inundated with government orders.

  He said he heard a similar story about another manufacturer making thermometers.

  “We hear how China is up and running and the virus is past them, so I asked, ‘What are they ordering 250 million gowns for?’ and of course no one is talking.”

  “I’ve been hearing this a lot from other manufacturing institutions that say, ‘We can give you a little bit, but basically we’re concentrated between now and the end of the summer manufacturing stuff for the Chinese government in anticipation of a second wave,'” he continued.

  Last month, leading U.S. manufacturers of medical safety gear told the White House that China had prohibited them from exporting goods as the crisis mounted, a Post report revealed.

  Beijing has already forced some 108 million Chinese in northeastern Jilin Province back under “partial lockdown” following another outbreak. They’re also carrying out a mass-testing campaign in Wuhan.

  Although Dr. Anthony Fauci has repeatedly warned that the US should brace for a second wave of the virus, a second wave isn’t a foregone conclusion. As NYT opinion columnist Nicolas Kristof wrote in his column published in Thursday’s paper, “epidemiology is full of puzzles.” In 2003, the WHO feared a deadly resurgence of SARS that fall. But instead, the virus petered out. As Dr. Fauci explained once several months ago, we know little for certain about the virus, and because of this, it’s important to be prepared for the worst-case scenario.

  And if the outbreak in Brazil continues to rage out of control, the possibility that Brazilians could reinfect the entire Western Hemisphere is looking increasingly plausible.

  

• We're All In This Together… But Not In The Way You Think
  We’re All In This Together… But Not In The Way You Think
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 05/21/2020 – 23:25

  Authored by Robert Blumen via The Mises Institute,

  We are all in this together. No, by that I do not mean what Andrew Horney calls “all those cloyingly saccharine, feel-good public service announcements being delivered by famous faces on television and social media platforms, telling us “we’re all in this together.” We are all interdependent through the production of goods and services that constitutes the market order.

  Some critics of the current crisis see it as yet another case of the rich getting one over on the rest of us. I will argue that this cannot be correct, because the rich as well as the poor (and the middle class) depend on the freedom to produce, and are all harmed by the lack of it.

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  Angelika Albaladejo writes, “The Rich Are Getting Richer,” citing a new report that “shows that some American billionaires are making substantial gains during the global health crisis.” Wilamette Week asks, “How Will the Rich Get Richer During the Pandemic-Fueled Economic Collapse?“

  Israel Shamir in “Deep Pockets Love Lockdown” suggests that the rich do not like the widespread availability of travel:

  No more travels for us. The very rich folks will regain their solitary possession of Venice, the Côte d’Azur, and all the other elite destinations so recently inundated by mass tourism. Once again they will have it as good as they had it in the 19th century. Travel is a luxury, and ordinary people do not deserve luxury. They tried to keep us away by making travel as unpleasant as possible with body searches, but it didn’t help. If this global pandemic doesn’t stop us, they are simply going to cut us off.

  The greatest influence on everyone’s standard of living is the overall production of the society they live in. Under the current prohibitions, some businesses gain market share—a larger piece, but sliced from a much smaller pie. The rich, who enjoy and can afford luxury goods, depend on the productivity of all members of society for these goods. Those who can afford to fly first class, or perhaps in their own private planes, depend on the engineering advances from the mass production of airplanes that have reduced the cost and made private jets “affordable.” Time-shared private aviation costs in the low six figures.

  High-end travelers rely on the proliferation of airports made possible by the masses of middle-class travel worldwide; on the sizable labor pool of skilled pilots with commercial air travel experience to fly their private planes; on the development of air traffic control through the management of millions of flights annually; and on the gradual improvements in air traffic control to improve air travel safety.

  Fine hotels where the rich stay in suites exist nearly everywhere due to middle-class and business travel. International brands are able to bring quality hotels online and up to international standards quickly due to experience operating in many global markets, and they are able to staff new hotels with experienced managers from existing properties, where they have honed their skills.

  The private chefs that the rich hire to cook for them emerged from a vast food service industry consisting of culinary schools and fine restaurants even in small- to mid-market cities, where chefs learn their craft. The ingredients are available because of demand to feed the millions. Restaurants are often funded by investors who either specialize in the restaurant sector or made their money in another business. The top-tier chefs who work privately for wealthy people have reached the top of a competitive pyramid through years of restaurant experience, travel, studying under other experienced chefs, and trying out different restaurant concepts to develop recipes and techniques. The Gordon Ramseys of the world stand atop a vast competitive pyramid of chefs.

  The writers who suggest that the lockdown is another means for the rich to get richer, perhaps by buying up discounted assets in a financial panic and eventually monopolizing all commerce, lack an understanding of capital markets.

  Financier and political advisor Bernard Baruch is reported to have gone to cash, to have shorted the US stock market in the late 1920s leading up to the crash of 1929, to have advised friends to do the same, and to have made millions on the trade. Kennedy family patriarch Joseph P. is reported to have done likewise, realizing that the market was at a top when shoeshine boys gave him stock tips.

  Fortunes have been made by shorting bubbles before market crashes or buying up assets on the cheap in the aftermath—but does that benefit “the rich”? This ignores that for every Bernard Baruch who sold millions of dollars in assets there had to be another buyer who bought them near the top and suffered the losses that Baruch avoided.

  Those who own most of the assets are by definition “the rich.” A rich person is someone whose property consists mostly of capital goods—directly owned, through businesses or through stocks and bonds, which are claims on capital goods. When Baruch wishes to sell $1 million in assets, which, as Dr. Evil has observed, used to be a lot of money, there must be a buyer who has that much cash on hand to pay for them. This buyer can only be another rich person, or an organization that represents a large number of individuals—a pension fund, a life insurance company.

  Collectively all assets are at all times owned by someone. “The rich” as a whole can not exit asset ownership, because there is no external population of Martians who will take those assets off their hands (unless the Fed buys the entire stock and bond market, which I don’t rule out, and perhaps the Fed governors are from another planet).

  Most of the world’s wealth is in capital goods; those who own the most of them are the rich. When markets are repriced—downward—the rich as a whole suffer most of the market value losses. Those who cashed out at the top benefit at the expense of those who held the assets on the way down. And anyone, at any size, who has cash finds that the purchasing power of their cash has gone up when measured in terms of assets. The position of small investors who have cash on hand improves relative to the rich when asset markets crash. Even those who do not invest in capital goods at all find their position improved in relative terms, because the ability of the rich to bid for consumption goods by offering capital goods has diminished.

  At any moment in time, the upward or downward price movements in capital markets are a zero-sum game. But there is a more fundamental way in which we are interdependent. The capital goods underlying financial assets derive their market value from their role in the production of consumer goods. The value of a corporation is derived from consumer demand for its products. Many of the rich became so by starting a business that they still own which grew by satisfying consumer demand. Others have sold a business or inherited wealth which they try to preserve through the ownership (direct or indirect) of capital goods through financial assets.

  And from where do consumers derive their ability to demand? We know from Say’s law that consumers demand by supplying their own production to the market. Everyone who works and produces a good or a service, by supplying it to the market, demands some other good or service. In the general glut debate, the proponents of Say’s law used it to show that because every instance of supply constitutes a demand, and vice versa, aggregate supply and aggregate demand are not only equal, but simply different ways of looking at the totality of transactions that occur in the market as a whole.

  The demand that the rich depend on to support the valuation of their assets is largely not from other rich people demanding Cartier jewelry, Rolex watches, yachts, and custom basement wine cellars. It is largely from the mass market of consumers through division of labor, which provides the goods and services that we all depend on. The ability of the poor and middle classes to demand comes mostly from their wages, which they earn through their contribution to the production of a range of goods and services. Their supply in turn constitutes the demand for other—different—goods and services, which supports the valuations of businesses, and therefore financial assets.

  And although the rich consume higher-quality goods and services than the rest of us, they depend equally on the flow of goods and services, the division of labor, and the development of new products. Although they may cherry-pick the best off the top, there has to be a chocolate sundae underneath to support the cherry.

  Most mass consumer goods start out as luxury goods. Then, as the manufacturers work out the kinks and capital investment enables production at a larger scale, these goods become mass market goods. The 1987 movie Wall Street featured actor Michael Douglas in the role as a hedge fund titan. In one scene he is shown carrying what at the time passed for a mobile phone (a luxury good only available to the super rich) about the size of a large brick. When I have traveled in low- to middle-income countries (back in the days when we were allowed to travel more than one hundred yards from our residences), smartphones were ubiquitous. While it is true that the middle class and eventually low-income consumers benefit from the adoption of new products by the rich, the fall in these goods’ costs also makes the rich man’s dollar go further. Improvements in the design and function of the products through generations of products and mass production make better products available to all classes.

  Even the government depends on the market, innovation, progress, and falling costs for its nefarious objectives. Governments would like to surveil us all—even more than they already do. According to the BBC News, “More than a million Australians have downloaded a coronavirus contact tracing app within hours of it being released by the government.” The plan is clear enough, but if no people can afford a modern mobile phone with GPS any longer and lack the ability to pay for their data plan, this effort might fall a bit short. The phone, the network, and the existence of either wifi or a mobile signal nearly everywhere are due to carriers’ vast capital investment and the dramatic fall in these technologies’ prices. We can all afford these things because of our participation in the market, producing other goods and services.

  I will be the first to say that I do not understand why our insect overlords are attempting to damage social trust (through “snitch” portals) and to destroy our civilization itself through the prohibition of commerce, education, healthcare, athletics, professional sports, entertainment, dating and family formation, the arts, music, dining, family gatherings, religious observance, and all other forms of civilized life.

  Nor can I explain the “mask hysteria” that is spreading like a highly contagious virus on social networking websites such as NextDoor.com.

  Without an explanation that makes any sense, where does that leave us?

  What keeps me up at night is that we have not yet seen the end game, and that when we do it may be worse than what anyone can imagine.

  

• Japanic! Tokyo Tourism Tumbles 99.9% In April
  Japanic! Tokyo Tourism Tumbles 99.9% In April
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 05/21/2020 – 23:05

  Japan saw an estimated 2,900 foreign travelers in April, down 99.9% from a year earlier, as COVID-19 travel restrictions and lockdowns left the once-booming tourism sector in a state of paralysis.

  The drop in foreign visitors was the most significant percentage decline on record dating back to 1964, the Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO) reported. It was the first time the monthly figure fell sub 10,000. The previous low for monthly foreign visitors was 17,543 set back in February 1964.

  The reason for the sharp decline stems from the government’s restrictions on international travel following a surge in domestic virus cases and deaths. On April 3, entry restrictions for international travelers were applied to 100 countries, including China, the US, and Europe, resulting in a collapse of inbound travel that severely impacted the country’s tourism industry.

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  Before the pandemic, tourism in the country was increasing at healthy growth rates. Around 31.8 million people visited Japan in 2019, up 2.2% over the previous year. Japan had high aspirations to boost tourism to a record 40 million this year, but those estimates were crushed due to the now-postponed Tokyo Olympics that have been rescheduled for 2021.  

  Travel restrictions and shutdowns have found success in mitigating the spread of the virus, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said on Thursday, adding that Japan could lift the state of emergency in Tokyo as early as next week, that is if virus infections can remain low. Emergencies were recently lifted in Osaka, Kyoto, and Hyogo because of a drop in confirmed cases. 

  Japan’s tourism industry is expected to remain in a slump throughout the year. The world’s third-largest economy dove into recession for the first time since 2015: 

  “The economy entered the coronavirus shock in a very weak position,” said Izumi Devalier, chief Japan economist at BofA, but “the real big ugly stuff is going to happen in the April, June print. It’s going to be three-quarters of very negative growth.”

  Read: “Japan Exports Worst Since Financial Crisis; Korea Early May Export Data Just As Dire” 

  Abe, like other world leaders, is quickly trying to reopen his crashed economy and simultaneously contain the pathogen’s spread. This difficult task could ignite into a second virus wave later this year.

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  Japan’s low rate of testing for the virus suggests the scope of the outbreak is still yet to be known. 

  

• Escobar: China Updates Its "Art Of (Hybrid) War"
  Escobar: China Updates Its “Art Of (Hybrid) War”
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 05/21/2020 – 22:45

  Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Asia Times,

  In 1999, Qiao Liang, then a senior air force colonel in the People’s Liberation Army, and Wang Xiangsui, another senior colonel, caused a tremendous uproar with the publication of Unrestricted Warfare: China’s Master Plan to Destroy America.

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  Unrestricted Warfare was essentially the PLA’s manual for asymmetric warfare: an updating of Sun Tzu’s Art of War. At the time of original publication, with China still a long way from its current geopolitical and geo-economic clout, the book was conceived as laying out a defensive approach, far from the sensationalist “destroy America” added to the title for US publication in 2004.    

  Now the book is available in a new edition and Qiao Liang, as a retired general and director of the Council for Research on National Security, has resurfaced in a quite revealing interview originally published in the current edition of the Hong Kong-based magazine Zijing (Bauhinia).

  General Qiao is not a Politburo member entitled to dictate official policy. But some analysts I talked with agree that the key points he makes in a personal capacity are quite revealing of PLA thinking. Let’s review some of the highlights.

  Dancing with wolves

  The bulk of his argument concentrates on the shortcomings of US manufacturing:

  “How can the US today want to wage war against the biggest manufacturing power in the world while its own industry is hollowed out?”

  An example, referring to Covid-19, is the capacity to produce ventilators:

  “Out of over 1,400 pieces necessary for a ventilator, over 1,100 must be produced in China, including final assembly. That’s the US problem today. They have state of the art technology, but not the methods and production capacity. So they have to rely on Chinese production.”  

  General Qiao dismisses the possibility that Vietnam, the Philippines, Bangladesh, India and other Asian nations may replace China’s cheap workforce:

  “Think about which of these countries has more skilled workers than China. What quantity of medium and high level human resources was produced in China in these past 30 years? Which country is educating over 100 million students at secondary and university levels? The energy of all these people is still far from being liberated for China’s economic development.”  

  He acknowledges US military power even in times of epidemic and economic difficulties is always capable of “interfering directly or indirectly in the Taiwan straits question” and finding an excuse to “block and sanction China and exclude it from the West.” He adds that, “as a producing country, we still cannot satisfy our manufacturing industry with our own resources and rely on our own markets to consume our products.”   

  In consequence, he argues, it’s a “good thing” for China to engage in the cause of reunification, “but it’s always a bad thing if it’s done at the wrong time. We can only act at the right time. We cannot allow our generation to commit the sin of interrupting the process of the Chinese nation’s renaissance.”

  General Qiao counsels, “Don’t think that only territorial sovereignty is linked to the fundamental interests of a nation. Other kinds of sovereignty – economic, financial, defense, food, resources, biological and cultural sovereignty – are all linked to the interests and survival of nations and are components of national sovereignty.” 

  To arrest movement toward Taiwan’s independence, “apart from war, other options must be taken into consideration. We can think about the means to act in the immense gray zone between war and peace, and we can even think about more particular means, like launching military operations that will not lead to war, but may involve a moderate use of force.”

  In a graphic formulation, General Qiao thinks that,

  “if we have to dance with the wolves, we should not dance to the rhythm of the US. We should have our own rhythm, and even try to break their rhythm, to minimize its influence. If American power is brandishing its stick, it’s because it has fallen into a trap.”

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  In a nutshell, for General Qiao, “China first of all must show proof of strategic determination to solve the Taiwan question, and then strategic patience. Of course, the premise is that we should develop and maintain our strategic force to solve the Taiwan question by force at any moment.”    

  Gloves are off

  Now compare General Qiao’s analysis with the by now obvious geopolitical and geo-economic fact that Beijing will respond tit for tat to any hybrid war tactics deployed by the United States government. The gloves are definitely off.

  The gold standard expression has come in a no-holds barred Global Times editorial:

  “We must be clear that coping with US suppression will be the key focus of China’s national strategy. We should enhance cooperation with most countries. The US is expected to contain China’s international front lines, and we must knock out this US plot and make China-US rivalry a process of US self-isolation.”

  An inevitable corollary is that the all-out offensive to cripple Huawei will be counterpunched in kind, targeting Apple, Qualcom, Cisco and Boeing, even including  “investigations or suspensions of their right to do business in China.”

  So for all practical purposes, Beijing has now publicly unveiled its strategy to counteract US President Donald Trump’s “We could cut off the whole relationship” kind of assertions.

  A toxic racism-meets-anti-communism matrix is responsible for the predominant anti-Chinese sentiment across the US, encompassing at least 66% of the whole population. Trump instinctively seized it – and repackaged it as his re-election campaign theme, fully approved by Steve Bannon.

  The strategic objective is to go after China across the full spectrum. The tactical objective is to forge an anti-China front across the West: another instance of encirclement, hybrid war-style, focused on economic war.

  This will imply a concerted offensive, trying to enforce embargoes and trying to block regional markets to Chinese companies. Lawfare will be the norm. Even freezing Chinese assets in the US is not a far-fetched proposition anymore.   

  Every possible Silk Road branch-out – on the energy front, ports, the Health Silk Road, digital interconnection – will be strategically targeted. Those who were dreaming that Covid-19 could be the ideal pretext for a new Yalta – uniting Trump, Xi and Putin – may rest in peace.       

  “Containment” will go into overdrive. A neat example is Admiral Philip Davidson – head of the Indo-Pacific Command – asking for $20 billion for a “robust military cordon” from California to Japan and down the Pacific Rim, complete with “highly survivable, precision-strike networks” along the Pacific Rim and “forward-based, rotational joint forces” to counteract the “renewed threat we face from great power competition.”

  Davidson argues that, “without a valid and convincing conventional deterrent, China and Russia will be emboldened to take action in the region to supplant US interests.”

  Watch People’s Congress

  From the point of view of large swathes of the Global South, the current, extremely dangerous incandescence, or New Cold War, is mostly interpreted as the progressive ending of the Western coalition’s hegemony over the whole planet.

  Still, scores of nations are being asked, bluntly, by the hegemon to position themselves once again in a “you’re with us or against us” global war on terror imperative.  

  At the annual session of the National People’s Congress, starting this Friday, we will see how China will be dealing with its top priority: to reorganize domestically after the pandemic.  

  For the first time in 35 years, Beijing will be forced to relinquish its economic growth targets. This also means that the objective of doubling GDP and per capita income by 2020 compared with 2010 will also be postponed.

  What we should expect is absolute emphasis on domestic spending – and social stability – over a struggle to become a global leader, even if that’s not totally overlooked.

  After all, President Xi Jinping made it clear earlier this week that a “Covid-19 vaccine development and deployment in China, when available,” won’t be subjected to Big Pharma logic, but “will be made a global public good. This will be China’s contribution to ensuring vaccine accessibility and affordability in developing countries.” The Global South is paying attention.

  Internally, Beijing will boost support for state-owned enterprises that are strong in innovation and risk-taking. China always defies predictions by Western “experts.” For instance, exports rose 3.5% in April, when the experts were forecasting a decline of 15.7%. The trade surplus was $45.3 billion, when experts were forecasting only $6.3 billion.

  Beijing seems to identify clearly the extending gap between a West, especially the US, that’s plunging into de facto New Great Depression territory with a China that’s about to rekindle economic growth. The center of gravity of global economic power keeps moving, inexorably, toward Asia.

  Hybrid war? Bring it on. 

  

• Social Distancing Revives Drive-In Movie Theaters In Post-COVID World
  Social Distancing Revives Drive-In Movie Theaters In Post-COVID World
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 05/21/2020 – 22:25

  In the 1950s, there were more than 4,000 drive-in movie theaters around the US. Now there’s less than 300 as America’s love affair with drive-ins died in recent decades. However, stop there, social distancing in a post-corona world could revive drive-ins as people keep their spaces while sitting in cars, watching a movie on a giant screen, which is much better than a crowded indoor theater where a COVID-19 carrier could infect everyone in the space. 

  We will revert our attention back to the US shortly, but first, drive-ins are becoming the next hottest thing in Dubai as traditional movie theaters remain closed. Reuters notes that the UAE has opened up an outside theater via VOX Cinemas that can accommodate up to 75 cars at a time.

  Tickets cost $50 per vehicle with popcorn, snacks and drinks included. 

  “We keep our social distancing so it’s a brilliant idea in my opinion,” Porsche driver Xavier Libbrecht told Reuters during a showing Wednesday. 

  The drive-in is located on top of the Mall of the Emirates, a shopping mall in Dubai. The giant screen was erected under the peak of the mall’s indoor ski resort. 

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  “Any excuse to get out the house during coronavirus times,” said Patrick, another moviegoer said on Wednesday. 

  “In the comfort of your own car you don’t have to worry about chewing too loud,” he added.

  Back to the US, Google search trends for “drive-in movie theater near me” has erupted to a five year high at the same time lockdowns are easing across the country.

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  People, who are searching for drive-in movie locations the most, are located in states where partial reopenings are currently underway.

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  It’s obvious that most Americans will not step into a movie theater anytime soon, considering a second coronavirus wave could be in the makings later this year. So their next best option, with social distancing in mind, and the luxury of their automobile, is to do something their parents or grandparents did decades ago: go to drive-in theaters. 

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  Short traditional movie theaters, long drive-in theaters in a post-corona world? 

  

• How Fear, Groupthink Drove Unnecessary Global Lockdowns
  How Fear, Groupthink Drove Unnecessary Global Lockdowns
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 05/21/2020 – 22:05

  Submitted by Yinon, Weiss, a tech entrepreneur, US nilitary veteran and bioengineer, via RealClearPolitics,

  In the face of a novel virus threat, China clamped down on its citizens. Academics used faulty information to build faulty models. Leaders relied on these faulty models. Dissenting views were suppressed. The media flamed fears and the world panicked.

  That is the story of what may eventually be known as one of the biggest medical and economic blunders of all time. The collective failure of every Western nation, except one, to question groupthink will surely be studied by economists, doctors, and psychologists for decades to come.

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  Reliance on Faulty Models

  To put things in perspective, the virus is now known to have an infection fatality rate for most people under 65 that is no more dangerous than driving 13 to 101 miles per day. Even by conservative estimates, the odds of COVID-19 death are roughly in line with existing baseline odds of dying in any given year.

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  Yet we put billions of young healthy people under house arrest, stopped cancer screenings, and sunk ourselves into the worst level of unemployment since the Great Depression. This from a virus that bears a survival rate of 99.99% if you are a healthy individual under 50 years old (1, 2).

  New York City reached over a 25% infection rate and yet 99.98% of all people in the city under 45 survived, making it comparable to death rates by normal accidents.

  But of course the whole linchpin of the lockdown argument is that it would have been even worse without such a step. Sweden never closed down borders, primary schools, restaurants, or businesses, and never mandated masks, yet 99.998% of all their people under 60 have survived and their hospitals were never overburdened. 

  Why did we lock down the majority of the population who were never at significant risk? What will be the collateral damage? That is what this series will explore.

  Experts took a measured approach early on

  In early February the World Health Organization said that travel bans were not necessary. On Feb. 17, just a month before the first U.S. lockdown, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the longtime director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases said that this new strain of coronavirus possessed “just minuscule” danger to the United States. In early March the U.S. surgeon general said that “masks are NOT effective in preventing [the] general public from catching coronavirus.” As late as March 9, the day Italy started its lockdown, Dr. Fauci did not encourage cancellation of “large gatherings in a place [even if] you have community spread,” calling it “a judgment call.” NBA games were still being played.

  So how did we go from such a measured tone to locking up 97% of Americans in their homes seemingly overnight?

  Enter faulty assumptions and faulty models

  China concealed the extent of the viral outbreak, which, if you believed its data, led many scientists to believe that 2% to 5% of all infected patients would die. This turned out to be off by a factor of 10, but academic epidemiologists have a history of wildly-off-the-mark doomsday predictions.

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  The March 16 report by Imperial College epidemiologist Neil Ferguson is credited (or blamed) with causing the U.K. to lock down and contributing to the domino effect of global lockdowns. The model has since come under intense criticism for being “totally unreliable and a buggy mess.” 

  This is the same Neil Ferguson who in 2005 predicted 200 million could die from the bird flu. Total deaths over the last 15 years turned out to be 455. This is the same Neil Ferguson who in 2009 predicted that 65,000 people could die in the U.K. from the swine flu. The final number ended up around 392. Now, in 2020, he predicted that 500,000 British would die from coronavirus. 

  His  deeply flawed model led the United States to fear over 2 million deaths and was used to justify locking down nearly the entire nation. Dr. Ferguson is a character of Shakespearean drama and tragedy. His March 17 presentation to British elites on the dire need to take action ironically may have infected Boris Johnson and other top British officials, as Mr. Ferguson himself tested positive for COVID-19 two days later. Then in May he resigned in disgrace after he broke his own quarantine rules to meet clandestinely with a married woman.

  But I don’t place most of the blame on people like Ferguson. If you are a hammer everything looks like a nail. I blame government leaders for failing to surround themselves with diverse viewpoints and to think critically for themselves.

  Politicians claim lockdowns were the cause of fewer deaths

  It would be highly embarrassing to force citizens to quarantine themselves only to later admit it was all a colossal blunder, so it is easier for politicians and modelers to claim the lower death rates were based on the lockdowns themselves. It was a success!

  But several inconvenient thorns keep bursting that narrative — and none larger than Sweden,  the only Western country not to lock down its citizens. Sweden never closed borders, restaurants, businesses, or primary schools. The only legal action officials took was to ban events that entail crowds larger than 50 people.

  One of the most well-known and respected models in the United States is from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation and is commonly cited by the White House. Since the IHME model accounts for lockdowns and social distancing, or lack thereof, they should be validated by their predictions on Sweden.

  Below is a screenshot of the IHME model for Sweden taken on May 3, along with actual results (black line). The model predicted up to 2,800 daily deaths within 11 days and a final death total as high as 75,000 if Sweden didn’t enact strict social distancing measures.

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  These were not complicated long-term projections; they were predicting what would happen in the next two weeks based on months of data. Yet the daily death peak was 75% lower than the baseline prediction and 96% lower than the worst-case prediction.

  Not to be outdone, Uppsala University (the oldest university in Sweden) also presented a model that could have caused the Swedes to abandon course and lock down as the U.K. did. However, Sweden did not buckle. While the Uppsala University model predicted 90,000 deaths within a month, the actual result was around 3,500.

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  Besides deaths, there were also doomsday projections about hospital capacity, but those models also proved to be grotesquely exaggerated. On March 29, Columbia University projected a need for 136,000 hospital beds in New York City. The maximum ever used was under 12,000. At peak, New York City still had around 1 in 6 hospital beds open and around 1 in 10 ICU beds open. Hospitals had capacity, both in New York City and in Sweden.

  While far below projections, Sweden’s short-term results are worse than Norway, Finland, and Denmark, but better than the U.K., France, Spain, Italy, and Belgium. Sweden likely also benefits from longer-term herd immunity, faster economic recovery, and fewer deaths from lockdown collateral damage.

  Political leaders ignored early evidence when it conflicted with their models

  There are those who say that we couldn’t have known these outcomes early on, so even if lockdowns were unjustified later they were still necessary early due to lack of information. That is plainly false. Italy’s alarming number of deaths fanned many of the early fears across the world, but by March 17 it was clear that the median age of Italian deaths was over 80 and that not a single person under 30 had died in that country. Furthermore, it was known that 99% of those who died had other existing illnesses.

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  A much more rational strategy would have been to lock down nursing homes and let young healthy people out to build immunity. Instead we did the opposite, we forced nursing homes to take COVID-19 patients and locked down young people. 

  There are now places like Santa Clara County in California, entering its third month of lockdown despite COVID-19 patients occupying less than 2% of hospital capacity and none on ventialtors. Yet there are 2 million county residents effectively under house arrest. Some doctors and nurses in the area had their pay cut by 20% so hospitals could avoid bankruptcy, reflecting perhaps the epitome of this senseless catastrophe.

  There were, of course, people warning us all along. Among them was as John P.A. Ioannidis of Stanford University School of Medicine, who ranks among the world’s 100 most-cited scientists on Google Scholar. On that pivotal day of March 17 he released an essay titled “A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data” — but it got little attention. Mainstream media was not interested in good news stories or dissenting views. The world instead marched lock step into its man-made calamity.

  

• "This Is The End Of Hong Kong": China Congress Announces Crackdown On Hong Kong With New "National Security" Law; Abandons GDP Target
  “This Is The End Of Hong Kong”: China Congress Announces Crackdown On Hong Kong With New “National Security” Law; Abandons GDP Target
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 05/21/2020 – 21:58

  With China’s ambitions toward Hong Kong having emerged as the top political fault line in recent days, the market was closely following the start of Friday’s National People’s Congress (NPC) where in addition to disclosures on Chinese political strategy, Beijing announces decisions on targets on GDP, CPI and fiscal deficit.

  Which is why many were surprised when in the text of Premier Li Keqiang’s annual address, for the first time China abandoned its usual practice of setting a numerical target for economic growth this year due to the turmoil caused by the coronavirus pandemic. 

  “I would like to point out that we have not set a specific target for economic growth this year,” the report said, according to Bloomberg which saw a leaked version. “This is because our country will face some factors that are difficult to predict in its development due to the great uncertainty regarding the Covid-19 pandemic and the world economic and trade environment.”

  “We must re-double efforts to minimize the losses resulted from the virus.”

  China’s Premier Li Keqiang says the #coronavirus epidemic has not come to an end yet and that the country must work to fulfill targets this year #两会 #TwoSessionspic.twitter.com/BVs9rRwXvj

  — Bloomberg QuickTake (@QuickTake) May 22, 2020

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  As Bloomberg adds, the shift away from a hard target for output growth not only breaks with decades of Communist Party planning habits, but is an admission of the deep rupture that the disease has caused in the world’s second-largest economy. With the growth outlook depending also on the efforts of trading partners to rein in the pandemic, the government is shifting its focus to employment and maintaining stability.

  Chinese Premier Li Keqiang announces:
  -China to abandon numerical GDP target
  -Hong Kong security law to be perfected
  -$1 trillion yuan of anti-virus bonds
  -Plans to add 9 million urban jobs in 2020 https://t.co/t7124697NLhttps://t.co/nCv65xYbyk

  — Bloomberg (@business) May 22, 2020

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  Among the various other economic goals disclosed by China, are:

  • The addition of 9 million urban jobs; surveyed jobless rate around 6% (as we reported recently, the People’s Liberation Army is aggressively hiring all those who lost their jobs due to the pandemic, so at least China’s army will soon be absolutely massive)
  • Plans 3.75 trillion Yuan of Special Local Govt Bonds in 2020 (a relatively modest number)
  • Sell 1t yuan of anti-virus sovereign bonds in 2020 (even more modest)
  • Deficit-to-GDP ratio this year is projected at more than 3.6% and the deficit increase is projected at 1 trillion yuan (about $141.6 billion) over last year (remember when China actually ran a budget deficit)
  • China to work with U.S. to implement phase 1 trade deal (a noble goal, also one which will never happen)
  • China sets 2020 CPI target at about 3.5% (China may have to launch another “pig ebola” virus to boost food inflation)
  • China to use innovative monetary policy tools to finance real economy (so China will do QE as well?)
  • China’s monetary stance unchanged; to make prudent monetary policy more flexible, appropriate
  • China to use RRR cuts and interest rate cuts, relending
  • China to guide money supply ‘significantly’ higher than 2019
  • China targets more stable, high-quality imports, exports
  • China to keep yuan at reasonable and equilibrium level
  • China targets basic equilibrium in balance of payments
  • China to cut taxes, fees by about 500b yuan this year
  • China to asks large banks to boost lending to small firms by 40% (the US doesn’t hold a trademark on a debt bubble after all)
  • China sees defense spending up 6.6% to 1.268 trillion yuan (see “China’s Military Seeks Bigger Budget Amid “Growing Threat Of US Conflict”“)

  While none of the above was especially remarkable (with the exception of the hint at QE), the reason why stocks gave the report a thumbs down is because as Premier Li also said, China will safeguard national security in Hong Kong, i.e., China plans on expanding its crackdown on Hong Kong sovereignty, a step that comes one day after China announced dramatic plans to rein in dissent by writing a new law into the city’s charter, and just hours after the Senate passed a bill that will retaliate against China should it do precisely that, effectively ensuring an even further deterioration in US-Sino relations.

  Specifically, the National People’s Congress confirmed plans to pass a bill establishing “an enforcement mechanism for ensuring national security” for Hong Kong, with Reuters adding that China’s draft Hong Kong legislation says Hong Kong “should finish enacting as soon as possible the regulations in basic law regarding national security” and that Hong Kong government and legal bodies should effectively prevent, stop and punish activities that endanger national security.

  Chinese lawmakers were preparing to soon pass measures that would curb secession, sedition, foreign interference and terrorism in the former British colony, local media including the South China Morning Post reported Thursday, citing unidentified people.

  “We will establish sound legal systems and enforcement mechanisms for safeguarding national security in the two special administrative regions, and see that the governments of the two regions fulfill their constitutional responsibilities,” Li said according to prepared remarks on Friday.

  As Bloomberg adds, any attempt to impose security laws now could reignite the unrest that hammered the city’s economy last year and serve as a flash point amid broader U.S.-China tensions. Protesters urged democracy advocates to hold rallies across the city Thursday night, with one poster describing the moment as a “battle of life and death,” but mass demonstrations didn’t immediately materialize.

  “This is the end of Hong Kong,” said Dennis Kwok, an opposition lawmaker representing the legal sector. “I foresee that the status of Hong Kong as an international city will be gone very soon.”

  More importantly, we now have a timeline: the law is expected to pass China’s parliament before the end of its annual session May 28, so retail investors have about a week to ramping stocks higher before the trapdoor opens.

  The legislation would still require several procedural steps including approval by the NPC’s decision-making Standing Committee, which could come as early as next month, the SCMP said. The move comes before citywide elections in September in which opposition members hoped to gain an unprecedented majority of the Legislative Council.

  * * *

  Although national security laws are required to be passed by Article 23 of the Basic Law, Hong Kong’s mini-constitution, successive governments have failed to pass them, with one effort in 2003 resulting in widespread street demonstrations. This new strategy could potentially allow authorities to skip the local legislative process, although the mechanics of how that would work remained unclear.

  “It is absolutely necessary that the country’s top legislature fulfill its obligation to guarantee national security, by strengthening the legal framework with regard to Hong Kong,” the state-run China Daily said in a commentary. “There is nothing untoward in this as all countries attach the utmost significance to national security, and the introduction of such a law will safeguard the long-term stability and prosperity of Hong Kong.”

  In addition to a more than 3% drop in Hong Kong stocks following the report of the imminent crackdown, three- and 12-month forwards on the Hong Kong dollar rose in New York trading, indicating traders expected more weakness ahead for the currency, which slipped the most in six weeks earlier in the day.

  “The market is taking this news negatively for Hong Kong given the likely return of violent protest activities, higher risk for the U.S. to remove certain preferential terms for Hong Kong, such as the special tariff status, and risk-off sentiment,” said Becky Liu, head of China macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank Ltd.

  In addition to an imminent return of violent Hong Kong protests, China’s position sets up an election-year showdown with Trump, who has come under pressure in Washington to reconsider the special trading status before the city’s return to Chinese rule under a promise to maintain its liberal financial and political structure. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo has delayed an annual report on whether the city still enjoys a “high degree of autonomy” from Beijing, telling reporters Wednesday that he was “closely watching what’s going on there.”

  On Thursday, Trump warned that the U.S. would respond to any move to curtail protests and democratic movements in Hong Kong: “I don’t know what it is because nobody knows yet,” Trump, speaking to reporters as he left the White House on Thursday, said about the possible Chinese actions. “If it happens, we’ll address that issue very strongly.” He didn’t elaborate.

  Assuring that this will only get worse, much worse, a late Thursday tweet from Global Times editor in chief Hu Xijing said that “Hong Kong belongs to China, not the US. If senior officials in Washington are confused about this, President Trump’s granddaughter can tell them this common sense.”

  Hong Kong belongs to China, not the US. If senior officials in Washington are confused about this, President Trump’s granddaughter can tell them this common sense. pic.twitter.com/b4ScMx77yV

  — Hu Xijin 胡锡进 (@HuXijin_GT) May 22, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The climax came when late on Thursday, senators Chris Van Hollen (Democrat) and Pat Toomey (Republican) introduced legislation to punish Chinese entities involved in enforcing the proposed new security law in Hong Kong and penalize banks that do business with those entities. They acted in response to what they said was the Chinese Communist Party’s “brazen interference” in Hong Kong’s autonomy. Meanwhile, China has repeatedly stressed that the US should mind its own business and not mess in internal affairs, with Hong Kong considered one of them.

  Perhaps this is a good time to reread the latest Dalio blog post on why a war between the US and China is now inevitable.

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• "Completely Bonkers" – US Bike Sales Boom In Pandemic As Americans Hit Parks
  “Completely Bonkers” – US Bike Sales Boom In Pandemic As Americans Hit Parks
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 05/21/2020 – 21:45

  Bikes sales flourished during nationwide COVID-19 lockdowns, as people were confined to their homes and local communities for several months under government-enforced public health orders to flatten the pandemic curve.

  During this time, tens of millions of folks were laid off and filed for initial claims, and the lucky ones were able to work at home, which resulted in an unprecedented collapse in fuel consumption as automobiles were not needed. Employed or unemployed, millions flocked to local parks and trails, as they reconnected with nature as a stress reliever. 

  Walking and jogging wasn’t enough for some, many ordered outdoor and stationary bikes online, and depending on local government restrictions, they were able to purchase ones at local retail shops. 

  Google search trend “bike shop near me” erupted to new decade highs during lockdowns. 

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  Research firm The NPD Group found that US bike sales in March soared 50% YoY. They said stationary exercise bikes also saw increased sales. Overall, bike sales saw a 31% YoY jump over 1Q20. 

  Bike shop owners reported a surge in sales over the last several months, Morgan Lommele, PeopleForBikes director of state and local policy, told NPR News. 

  “We’re seeing families, individuals riding bikes in droves, more than we’ve seen over the last 20 years,” said Lommele

  She said the best selling bikes were in a price range of $600 to $1,500. 

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  Lommele said many bike shops experienced “record-level sales, record-level demand for service” in March and over the first quarter. With such an influx in demand, she said some shops experienced labor shortages as workers stayed home due to virus fears. 

  League of American Bicyclists said some state governments labeled bike shops as “essential” and were allowed to stay open during lockdowns. 

  With depleted supply, bike shops are now complaining about restocking, plus a massive cloud of uncertainty remains due to President Trump’s bicycle and bicycle parts 25% tariffs. 

  Lommele said tariffs “really harm our ability to provide a safe, low-cost product to Americans who want to ride bikes.”

  In Springfield, Missouri, A & B Cycle’s Assistant Sales Manager Bryant Johnson said sales continued to spike through spring. 

  “It’s been completely bonkers,” Johnson told KY3 News. “It’s kind of unprecedented to be this low on stock of bikes.”

  Johnson said people want to stay active during the stay-at-home-orders. 

  “People just sat around for so long, they’re getting bored,” he said.

  Johnson said the backlog is so severe, bikes ordered today won’t arrive in the shop until fall. 

  We noted in late April that Peloton sales are booming, and their at-home classes experienced a record number of riders. 

  It only a took a pandemic to get America fit again.

  

• Watch: China Expert Warns Communist Regime Unlike Anything "Since The Third Reich"
  Watch: China Expert Warns Communist Regime Unlike Anything “Since The Third Reich”
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 05/21/2020 – 21:25

  Authored by Cabot Phillips via Campus Reform,

  The FBI issued a PSA warning of the Chinese government’s intention to steal American medical research in its quest to find a cure for COVID-19.

  The May 13 announcement came as mounting evidence continues to expose Chinese efforts to infiltrate America’s college campuses with the goal of stealing research and spreading propaganda.

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  Gordon Chang, an expert on United States-China relations, and author of The Coming China Collapse, spoke with Campus Reform Editor-in-Chief Cabot Phillips to break down what it all means and what must be done in response.

  WATCH:

  Pointing first to China’s response to COVID-19, Chang called out the attempt to place blame on other nations, saying “What we are seeing with the coronavirus is an attempt by the Chinese Communist Party to change the narrative around the entire world… the virus has an origin in Wuhan. Beijing has tried to change that, at times suggesting it came from the United States.”

  “But also China has been trying to say they’ve had a near perfect response to the coronavirus and western countries have been failing… there’s an attempt to exert Chinese influence. One thing we’ve got to remember is Xi believes China is the world’s only sovereign state.”

  Chang went on to point out how China has an extensive operation in place to steal American research, noting that “estimates put the annual theft of American intellectual property at somewhere between $150-600 billion a year.”

  “Some of that actually takes place on American college campuses. China has bought a number of college professors, a number of them have been fingered by the FBI and they’re pending investigations, and Chinese students have been engaged in activities…for instance, downloading entire databases for China.” 

  Pointing out the danger in allowing the Chinese government a foothold on our campuses, Chang detailed how their Confucius Institutes “report in reality to the Communist Party’s United Front Work Department. That means these are attempts to subvert other countries. Why would China spend so much money on U.S. campuses? It’s not just because they want to teach the Chinese language. They want to put forth narratives and restrict what is said about China on American campuses.”

  Pointing out the lack of reciprocity, he noted, “The U.S. is not permitted to have institutes like this in China. You don’t have a Lincoln Center or Roosevelt Institute… we know that propaganda is absolutely critical to totalitarian regimes.” In closing, Chang noted the impact political correctness has had on the failure of American colleges and universities to call out China’s infiltration efforts.

  “What we’ve seen in the U.S. is political correctness gone wild in connection with coronavirus.. where any criticism of China is deemed to be xenophobic or creating racism against Chinese Americans. That’s absolutely wrong. You’ve got to remember that the Chinese regime is deeply racist with its Han nationalist ideology. This is something we haven’t quite seen since The Third Reich.

  To say criticism of a racist regime is racist is absolutely wrong. People have serious concerns about China and we have to have the right to have open discussions about it without the name calling.”

  

• Washington State Loses "Hundreds Of Millions" To Nigerian Unemployment Claims Fraud Scheme
  Washington State Loses “Hundreds Of Millions” To Nigerian Unemployment Claims Fraud Scheme
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 05/21/2020 – 21:22

  Just when you thought the world has reached a level of peak absurdity, the Nigerian scheme makes a grand reappearance.

  Washington state officials admitted losing “hundreds of millions of dollars” to an international fraud scheme, originating out of Nigeria, that robbed the state’s unemployment insurance system and could mean even longer delays for thousands of jobless workers still waiting for legitimate benefits.

  As the Seattle Times reported, Suzi LeVine, commissioner of the state Employment Security Department (ESD), disclosed the staggering losses during a news conference Thursday afternoon. LeVine declined to specify how much money was stolen during the scam, which she said appears to be orchestrated out of Nigeria but she conceded that the amount was “orders of magnitude above” the $1.6 million that ESD reported losing to fraudsters in April.

  While LeVine said state and law enforcement officials were working to recover as much of the stolen money as possible, she declined to say how much had been returned so far. She also said the ESD had taken “a number of steps” to prevent new fraudulent claims from being filed or paid but would not specify the steps to avoid alerting criminals.

  Thursday’s disclosure helped explain the unusual surge in the number of new jobless claims filed last week in Washington, which as we showed this morning was the state with the highest weekly increase in claims.

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  On Wednesday, the state’s monthly employment report for April showed Washington with a seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of 15.4%, up from 5.1% in March. The national unemployment rate for April stood at 14.7%, seasonally adjusted.

  For the week ending May 16, the ESD received 138,733 initial claims for unemployment insurance, a 26.8% increase over the prior week and one of the biggest weekly surges since the coronavirus crisis began. That sharp increase came as the number of initial jobless claims nationwide fell 9.2%, to 2.4 million, according to data released earlier in the day by the Labor Department.

  Indeed, the surge in claims made Washington the state with the highest percentage of its civilian labor force filing unemployment claims – at 30.8%, according to an analysis by the Tax Foundation, a nonpartisan Washington, D.C., think tank. Nevada, the next-highest state, reported claims from 24.5% of its civilian workforce.

  It now appears that many of those claims were fictitious and emanated from some computer in Nigeria.

  The disclosure came as the state was already struggling to process an unprecedented wave of legitimate jobless claims amid one of the worst economic crises in U.S. history. Some additional delays in benefits payments to legitimate claimants are likely as the ESD subjects all claims to more scrutiny.

  “This makes me the most angry, and the most upset — that we need to delay payments to Washingtonians who need the benefits,” LeVine said adding that “we need to also build in more time for analysis. So going forward, we want to set expectations that we will add an additional one to two days to our processing time.”

  That delay follows a decision last Thursday to temporarily suspend benefit payments for two days. The delay came after the ESD disclosed that it had seen a surge in bogus claims reportedly filed by identity thieves who appeared to be targeting the extra-generous benefits available under federal pandemic relief legislation.

  That same day, the Secret Service issued an alert describing Washington as the top target so far of a Nigerian fraud ring “exploiting the COVID-19 crisis to commit large-scale fraud against state unemployment insurance programs.”

  It remains unclear how the fraudulent benefit payments made their way all the way to Nigeria.

  

• "It Felt Like A Death": 20% Of Illinois Restaurants Will Go Out Of Business In Coming Months
  “It Felt Like A Death”: 20% Of Illinois Restaurants Will Go Out Of Business In Coming Months
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 05/21/2020 – 21:05

  Last week we reported that as much as a quarter of US restaurants will go out of business due to the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a forecast by OpenTable, which reported that total restaurant reservations and walk-in customers have fallen 95% over the previous year ending May 13.

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  For restaurant owners in Illinois this dismal forecast is already coming true. According to CBS, Illinois restaurants – reeling in the coronavirus crisis – are doing anything they can to survive, and while many are trying to reinvent themselves, for others time to close shop. CBS cites a “frightening” number from the Illinois Restaurant Association: In spite of all the take out and delivery services they now offer, restaurant sales are down 80%, and thousands of restaurants are in jeopardy of never opening again.

  “The restaurant industry, we’ve kind of alway been up against it anyways,” said Joe Frillman, owner of Daisies Restaurant. “The statistics are never in our favor to begin with.”

  Once known for its dine in homemade pastas, the kitchen at Daisies in Logan Square has pivoted to pay the bills: “It’s all to go now, so the whole business model has changed,” said Frillman who debuted a new concept last weekend. His dining space became a farmer’s market with fresh produce,- meal kits and specialty products.

  “We had over 150 people come out to support us,” he said. “I was kind of blown away. We didn’t really know what to expect.”

  But for every hopeful moment like these, there are thousands of others from restaurants on the brink of closing.  Jeanne Roeser, in business since 1996, was forced to close her two popular brunch destinations, Toast. Each sat only a handful of diners, and an eventual scaled back reopening didn’t add up.

  “It felt like a death,” said Roeser, owner of Toast Restaurant. “It felt like going through the grieving process, which I still am. Any time I thought about it, and I looked at the prospects, it just, in my gut, didn’t feel like it was something that would be workable”

  According to The Illinois Restaurant Association there were 25,851 restaurants operating in the state in March, and it estimates that 20%, or nearly 5,200 restaurants, will go out of business in the coming months because of COVID-19.

  “I think it’s an undercount,” said Roeser.

  “I think that’s generous,” said Frillman. “I think would be a best case scenario.”

  “Independent restaurants bring wealth to the city, culturally, economically,” said Roeser.

  For those whose livelihood is on the line, the push forward against the odds must go on: “It’s not whether or not you’re not going to make it,” said Frillman. “It’s you are always constantly doing whatever you can to make it.”

  Alas, there’s an even more important number to keep in mind: About 600,000 people work in Illinois’ restaurant industry and about half have been laid off.

  Restaurants find the prospect of resuming dine in service especially frustrating.  Stay-at-home orders are expected to ease on May 29, with much of the state moving from stage two to stage three of Gov. JB Pritzker’s plan to reopen the state. That allows salons and health clubs to reopen with restrictions, but not restaurants for dine in.  Owners argue theirs is a business accustomed to strict health protocols, and with social distancing and scaled back capacity they should be allowed to reopen at stage three.

  

• Fed Balance Sheet Rises Above $7 Trillion; Bond ETF Holdings Hit $1.8 Billion
  Fed Balance Sheet Rises Above $7 Trillion; Bond ETF Holdings Hit $1.8 Billion
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 05/21/2020 – 20:26

  After crossing back above the $4 trillion mark back in October 2019 in the aftermath of the JPMorgan repo bailout, also known as “No QE”, the Fed’s balance sheet is nearly double that amount a little over half a year later, with the Fed reporting in its latest H.4.1 report that as of May 20, 2020, its total assets rose above $7 trillion for the first time ever, an increase of $103 billion in the past week to $7,038 billion. Putting the increase in context, the Fed’s balance sheet hit $6 trillion on April 2.

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  The increase was mostly the result of a $79BN increase in settled MBS purchases as well as $32BN in Treasury purchases, while there was no change in the Fed’s holdings in its commercial paper facility.

  While the Fed’s balance sheet is broadly expected to hit $12 trillion in the next 12 months, the fact that the expansion has slowed down substantially is a problem, especially after the Fed tapered its daily QE to just $6 billion last week, and JPMorgan expects it to further shrink to just $5 billion per day when the new schedule is published tomorrow.

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  This is a problem because the Treasury has some $3 trillion in debt issuance to go in the next 6 months, and one war or another, the Fed will have to aggressively ramp up its QE again, which as we discussed over the weekend, may mean another market crash “unexpectedly” happens in the coming weeks to provide cover to the Fed for the next massive QE expansion.

  There was one surprise in the latest amount of Fed corporate ETF holdings, which can be found in the “Net portfolio holdings of Commercial Paper Funding Facility II, LLC” line time.

  As a reminder, earlier today we laid out a BofA report according to which the Fed would disclose $2.5 billion in total bond ETF holdings, and which assumed that the Fed, which unveiled a total of $305MM in the one full day after the program was launched, would now have a $2.5 billion total in holdings. However, the actual number was notably lower at $1.8 billion, which means that in the past 5 work days, the Fed purchased $1.5 billion in ETFs, or $300MM per day, which appears to be the Fed’s now daily purchases of LQD (for those curious, the total assets of LQD are $48 billion).

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  Incidentally, judging by the sharp jump in LQD pricing, $300MM is more than enough to push this critical – for all future buybacks, not to mention anchor pillar for the US bond market – ETF back to near all-time highs.

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  And since nobody even jokes anymore that the Fed can one day reverse or even stop these operations, the bigger question is what will the Fed’s balance sheet be when it’s all said and done, an exercise which Deutsche Bank did earlier this week when it calculated that the maximum potential size of the Fed’s balance sheet is $130 trillion and will be hit as soon as the Fed owns… well, everything.

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• Insolvent Illinois May Tap Into Fed's Emergency Muni Facility
  Insolvent Illinois May Tap Into Fed’s Emergency Muni Facility
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 05/21/2020 – 20:25

  Illinois is insolvent. So what’s new?

  Well, the state’s fiscal situation was deteriorating well before the coronavirus pandemic. Traditional lenders have severed ties with the state as local officials struggle in muni bond markets to fund budgets, which has forced them to request funding assistance via the Federal Reserve’s new $500 billion Municipal Liquid Facility (MLF), reported Bloomberg. 

  The Fed laid out the process last week of how state and local governments can tap into MLF, a tool announced in April that will provide state and local governments affected by virus-related shutdowns, with ample amounts of liquidity as tax revenue collapses.

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  Carol Knowles, a spokeswoman for Illinois’ budget office, said state officials are drafting a “notice of interest” that will shortly be submitted to the Fed, the first step towards gaining access to MLF. 

  The move comes after the state suspended a short-term debt auction worth $1.2 billion several weeks ago. The proposed one-year notes were expected to fund state operations as cash flows reach dangerously low levels thanks to the economic fallout. 

  Once the notice of interest form is submitted, the MLF program will begin to participate in the bidding of Illinois debt. According to the NY Fed, the state is eligible to borrow about $9.7 billion under the program.

  Kent Hiteshew, whom the Fed hired to supervise the MLF program, said the central bank is administering virtual meetings that would allow for the quick approval once states and local governments submit the forms.

  “We should begin purchasing notes in the very near future,” Hiteshew said. 

  Even before the outbreak, Illinois had a massive unfunded pension liability problem and soaring budget deficits. As tax revenue collapses and the local economy has ground to a halt, the state’s bonds, rated one notch above junk, are at risk of downgrades. 

  We recently noted, the state is paying 5.65% on its 10-year bonds is now five times higher than the 1.13% costs AAA-rated states to borrow. 

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  Illinois’ pension shortfalls are continuing to worsen with a visual below mapping out where trouble lurks in the state. 

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  Many of Illinois pension funds are less than 50% funded — we’re assuming that number now is much worse. 

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  Take, for example, the shortfall between Chicago police pension assets and pension liabilities, the gap is absolutely astonishing… 

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  The state also has mounting unpaid bills, which currently stands around $7.5 billion. With recession deepening, don’t expect state officials to pay its bills anytime soon. 

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  Steve Cortes, a conservative political commentator, recently told Fox News that Illinois politicians are using the virus crisis as a means to bailout decades of failed liberal policies. He said much of the instabilities in the state, such as unfunded pensions, existed well before the pandemic.

  https://video.foxnews.com/v/embed.js?id=6152146821001&w=466&h=263Watch the latest video at foxnews.com

   

  At this point, it appears the Fed via MLF will be giving the bankrupted state another lifeline, another can-kicking policy that will absolutely solve nothing but delay the recovery.

  Of course, what Illinois’ liberal leaders really want is a bailout… not a loan. Don’t hold your breath

  

• Scientists Claim 'Medicinal Cannabis' Could Help Fight COVID-19
  Scientists Claim ‘Medicinal Cannabis’ Could Help Fight COVID-19
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 05/21/2020 – 20:05

  Ever since scientists reportedly explored the deterrent effects of nicotine in preventing the coronavirus, potheads probably figured it was only a matter of time until somebody did the same for marijuana.

  Now, a team of researchers in Calgary told a local TV station that their research into local strains of marijuana shows “promise.”

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  The husband-and-wife team say they’ve been researching potential medicinal properties of marijuana for more than five years, but started to ‘pivot’ their research once the coronavirus came on the scene.

  Olga and Igor Kovalchuk have been working with cannabis since 2015, using varieties from around the world to create new hybrids and develop extracts that demonstrate certain therapeutic properties.

  “There’s a lot of documented information about cannabis in cancer, cannabis in inflammation, anxiety, obesity and what not,” says Igor. “When COVID-19 started, Olga had the idea to revisit our data, and see if we can utilize it for COVID.

  “It was like a joker card, you know, coronavirus. It just mixes up everybody’s plans,” says Olga.

  She says they started to examine the special proteins, or receptors, that the virus hijacks to enter the body, and they’ve now submitted a research paper studying the effects of medical cannabis on COVID-19.

  “We were totally stunned at first, and then we were really happy,” says Olga.

  Specifically, the researchers at the University of Lethbridge suspect that certain anti-inflammatory high-CBD cannabis extracts can help modulate the levels of the receptors in the mouth, lungs and intestinal cells, areas that are among the most vulnerable for coronavirus infection. Previous research has shown that some of these strains can “modulate” the activity of a receptor known as “ACE2”, which other researchers have shown might be a critical gateway for the virus.

  One of the receptors, known as ACE2, has now been shown to be a key gateway, to how the COVID-19 virus enters the body.

  “The virus has the capacity to bind to it, and pull it into the cell, almost like a doorway,” Olga says.
  Other key receptors allow the virus to enter other cells more easily and multiply rapidly. But some cannabis extracts help to reduce inflammation and slow down the virus.

  “Imagine a cell being a large building,” says Igor. “Cannabinoids decrease the number of doors in the building by, say, 70 per cent, so it means the level of entry will be restricted. So, therefore, you have more chance to fight it.”
  The early discoveries indicate the cannabis extracts could be used in inhalers, mouthwash and throat gargle products for both clinical practice and at-home treatment.

  The Kovalchuks haven’t tested the effects of smoking cannabis and say you won’t find any of these extracts at your local weed store.

  “The key thing is not that any cannabis you would pick up at the store will do the trick,” says Olga.

  They have now submitted a paper explaining their data and proposing a clinical trial. Unfortunately for smokers, the extracts that the two have been studying are extremely peculiar: they have very high concentrations of CBD, and extremely low levels of THC – the active ingredient in marijuana that produces the “high” in the user.

  

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• WTO's Goods Trade Barometer Hits Record Low Amid COVID Disruptions 
  WTO’s Goods Trade Barometer Hits Record Low Amid COVID Disruptions 
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 05/21/2020 – 02:35

  The World Trade Organization (WTO) published its Goods Trade Barometer on Wednesday morning, showing a steep decline in 1H20 as the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the global economy.

  “The index currently stands at 87.6, far below the baseline value of 100, suggesting a sharp contraction in world trade extending into the second quarter,” the new report showed. 

  “This is the lowest value on record since the indicator was launched in July 2016.” 

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  Most importantly, the WTO warned: “the current reading captures the initial phases of the COVID-19 outbreak, and shows no sign of the trade decline bottoming out yet.” 

  The current reading of the Goods Trade Barometer suggests world merchandise trade could plunge between 13% and 32% in 2020, which is all dependent on if there’s a second virus wave. 

  WTO trade data show the volume of world merchandise trade contracted by 0.1% in 2019, the first decline since the 2009 GFC. The downturn in the global economy started in late 2017, mostly because marginal productivity of debt was quickly depleted across major economies and a trade war between the US and China that quickly erupted.

  For more color on collapsing world trade, A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S, the world’s largest container line, warned last week that global trade would continue to falter with volumes declining by at least a quarter in 2Q20. The shipper dashed all hope that a V-shaped recovery will be seen in the back half of the year, instead suggesting a U-shaped recovery is more plausible. 

  Meanwhile, this week, BofA’s latest Fund Manager Survey, which polled 223 participants with $651BN in AUM, showed the vast majority of financial professionals remain incredibly bearish on the global economy. Respondents do not expect global manufacturing PMI to rise back above 50 until 4Q20. 

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  MSCI World has soared 32% in the last 41 trading sessions on V-shaped recovery and vaccine hopes. 

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  While world stocks are pushing the narrative that the end of the pandemic is near and it’s time to celebrate about economic revivals — that is far from the case, and the latest trade data from WTO suggest the bottom is not in. 

  

• Vast Majority Of Aussies Believe China Covering Up True Scale Of COVID-19 Outbreak
  Vast Majority Of Aussies Believe China Covering Up True Scale Of COVID-19 Outbreak
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 05/21/2020 – 02:00

  Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

  A poll conducted by Essential Research has found that a huge majority of Australians, 77% believe China is covering up the reality of the coronavirus outbreak.

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  The survey also found that 40% believe the outbreak came from a Chinese lab.

  Despite evidence strongly suggesting these are legitimate concerns, they were grouped under the category ‘conspiracy theories’.

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  The poll also found that over a quarter of Australians believe that to some extent the outbreak is being overhyped to scare people.

  Australia has led the charge to hold China accountable for the outbreak, successfully urging over 100 other countries to join a coalition to ensure a thorough independent investigation into the virus origins.

  In return, China has imposed tariffs of up to 80% on the country, in a bid to wreck its economy.

  

• Japanese Military To Receive New Assault Rifles Amid Rising Tensions With China
  Japanese Military To Receive New Assault Rifles Amid Rising Tensions With China
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 05/21/2020 – 01:00

  The very last time the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force (JGSDF) received new assault rifles, the Nikkei 225 stock index soared to nearly 40,000 in 1989, then crashed 50% nine months later.

  Jane’s Information Group reports JGSDF will receive a new 5.56 mm rifle and 9 mm handgun to defend the country’s southwestern islands from China. 

  The new rifle, designated as “Type 20,” is manufactured in Japan under the name “Howa5.56,” which was unveiled Monday at the Defense Ministry in Tokyo.

  Typ 20 assault rifle 

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  JGSDF spokesperson told Janes 3,283 units were purchased, valued at JPY900 million ($8.36 million). The new weapon is water-resistant and designed for use in amphibious operations. It has “better firepower” than its predecessor, the Howa Type 89 5.56 mm assault rifle, the spokesperson added.

  Video of new weapons 

  Army units under the Ground Component Command, including the Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade based at Camp Ainoura in Sasebo, Nagasaki Prefecture, and Rapid Deployment Regiments across Japan, will receive the new assault rifle and pistol in 2021. 

  Disputed islands between Japan and China 

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  Janes says the new pistol is the SFP9 9 mm handgun by German manufacturer Heckler & Koch. The spokesperson said the introduction of these new weapons will provide troops with better firepower. 

  SFP9 9 mm handgun

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  Garren Mulloy, a professor of international relations at Japan’s Daito Bunka University, told South China Morning Post (SCMP) that the new assault rifle has been tested for multiple battlefield scenarios, not just the in amphibious operations. 

  “The obvious assumption is that Japan is planning to carry out a lot more amphibious operations,” Mulloy said. “But if you talk to professional soldiers, you will see that dust or other contaminants in the mechanism of a weapon is a constant problem, and I think the Japanese have designed a weapon that will have better tolerances than its predecessor in all conditions.”

  “This weapon will have been proofed in the snow in Hokkaido, the humidity of Okinawa and they will have taken them to desert environments in the United States to make sure that they operate as they are meant to in any given situation,” he said.

  He said the purchase of the weapons comes at a time when Chinese maritime war drills have picked up around Taiwan, the East China Sea, and the South China Sea and increased further during the global pandemic. 

  “If we look back over the last six months or so, there have been a steady number of Chinese incursions into those waters and then during the coronavirus crisis, Beijing was otherwise occupied,” he said. “But as soon as the crisis passed its peak there, it was as if Beijing wanted to reassert its claims. It’s as if they said, ‘We were away, but now we’re back.'”

  On Wednesday, we noted cross-strait relations and Sino-US diplomatic relations continues to deteriorate  — Japan has gotten the message, restock its military with new assault rifles as conflict with China around disputed islands could be dead ahead. 

  

• The 'Conman Elites' That Want To "Save Us" From COVID-19
  The ‘Conman Elites’ That Want To “Save Us” From COVID-19
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 05/21/2020 – 00:05

  Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

  Last week the Federal Reserve released a report predicting that the next print on GDP numbers will likely show a loss 34.9% in the second quarter. This is the biggest GDP plunge since the Great Depression; even the crash of 2008 doesn’t compare.  And when we take into account the fact that the Fed artificially boosts GDP calculations by adding in many non-productive government programs, we have to ask, what are the REAL losses above and beyond what the Fed admits to?

  With the supply chain in disarray, many companies (like Apple) are trying to shift their manufacturing base to dodge the pandemic. Of course, none of them want to bring factories back to the US; there’s simply no incentive to do so. And, the small business sector has been crushed by the shutdowns, with the vast majority of those seeking bailout loans still waiting for aid and over 20.5 million employees laid off in April alone.

  Needless to say, the economy has been severely affected. The problem is that many people are being led to believe that this event has been triggered by the virus outbreak alone. This is a lie. As I noted back in February in my article ‘Global Centralization Is The Cause Of The Crisis – Not The Cure’, the collapse of the Everything Bubble was well underway long before the pandemic. The crash was started by the Federal Reserve hiking rates into economic weakness at the end of 2018, puncturing the bubble and setting the liquidity crisis in motion.

  The pandemic is just the icing on the cake of a collapse that was going to happen anyway. It is also a convenient scapegoat, because now the banking elites are going to escape all the blame for the crash and the public is going to hyperfocus on the coronavirus as the culprit.

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  As I also warned would happen over the past few months, the Chinese government has been caught in numerous lies surrounding their response to the outbreak, including hiding the true numbers of dead and infected and suppressing information to the rest of the world on the danger of human-to-human transmission. The problem that the public is still not being told about, however, is that the Chinese did not act alone, they had help.

  It takes two sides to do the pandemic tango – If air travel had been cut off from China immediately upon the confirmation of the virus spread until the danger could be assessed, the outbreak may have never carried beyond China’s borders. Yet this did not happen. Air travel remained open for weeks from China after the outbreak confirmation. Then, when the virus hit Italy hard, air travel continued from Europe to the US unabated. It was almost as if the establishment WANTED the virus to spread quickly…

  I remember some of the idiotic sentiments being passed around in web forums back in January and February. Some people argued that the virus “only infects Asians”. Some people said sarcastically “Oh no, whatever will we do without our new i-Phones…!”. And, yet others, including the Trump Administration, argued that the US economy would escape any real harm.

  Well, we are a few months into the outbreak and now the US has the largest number of infections in the world. US deaths are already almost triple that of the CDC’s yearly reported 30,000 deaths for the flu. The virus is no Black Plague, but it’s not something to be shrugged off either. If this virus behaves anything like the pandemics of the past, expect it to linger for a couple of years, not just a few months.  The lockdowns actually guarantee that this situation will drag on for quite some time.

  Apple i-Phone sales have crashed 77% in April, right along with almost every other sector of the economy. Clearly, the Trump Administration and Larry Kudlow were either lying to us in February, or they had no idea what they were talking about.

  Despite the current reopening hype, the situation is only going to get worse from here on out. Certainly in terms of the economy, but also in terms of the outbreak. The globalists have openly discussed their plans for this pandemic, including a minimum 18 month period of lockdowns and “reopenings”. The public seems to be oblivious to the fact that the plan is for a “1 month open, 2 months closed” cycle going into next year. That’s right, the lockdowns will return.

  Certain globalists have slithered out of the swamp to the forefront of media attention recently, and it is interesting to see how transparent the narrative has become. As I have predicted time and time again, during the collapse the very people that helped create the crisis are now suddenly being put on a pedestal by the media as our saviors and some are being presented as “rebels” on the side of conservatives. Here are just a few global elites that have been specifically prominent during this disaster.

  Bill Gates

  Wow, I’m getting incredibly sick of seeing Bill Gates presented in the media lately as some kind of virology guru. Why should we take the advice of a computer programmer on issues of biology and sociopolitical response? Why should we take the advice of an open globalist with an admitted agenda of population control?

  Bill Gates is notorious for letting his agendas slip in public forums such as his Ted Talks. In 2010 Gates called for carbon emissions to be reduced to zero (an impossibility without complete de-industrialization and the economic murder of billions of people). In the same talk, he hinted that methods to reduce the population could include “new vaccines and reproductive health services…” He did not elaborate at the time, except to claim that vaccines would lead to “social changes” that would reduce population.  Aren’t vaccines supposed to extend people’s lives, thus increasing the population?

  We do know that Bill Gates has funded numerous experimental vaccine trials through the World Health Organization, including Polio vaccination programs. It was these same programs that led to viral outbreaks of polio in various countries and hundreds of paralyzed children. In fact, the vaccines caused more cases of polio than the wild-type virus. This if VERIFIED FACT, admitted by the WHO, though numerous leftist media sources have tried to deny it.

  At most, the WHO and Gates can claim that the infections were “accidental”. But if this is the case, it would still suggest that vaccines developed by Gates Foundation programs and the WHO should not be trusted. Given Gates’ obsession with depopulation, I think it safer to not allow him to inject viruses (living or dead) into people.

  The Gates Foundation was also central in Event 201, a pandemic exercise which “simulated” a coronavirus outbreak and the government and UN response. This exercise took place only a couple of months before the real thing happened. What an incredible coincidence. It is also an incredible coincidence that almost every solution presented in the simulation is now being implemented or suggested around the world during the real pandemic, including the use of tracking apps and immunity passports that violate every level of personal freedom we know.

  Gates is not a hero, far from it. In fact, Gates and his ideology benefit greatly from the pandemic.

  Mohamed El-Erian

  A dedicated globalist, El-Erian has been everywhere in the economic media lately. As I examined in my Globalist Disinformation Spotlight article, El-Erian is an active promoter of a global currency under the control of the IMF though its Special Drawing Rights basket. He also argued last year that economic swings were “out of the control of central banks” and that they should not be blamed for any financial disruptions. At the same time, El-Erian claimed that the US economy was “strong” and that there was no chance of recession in 2020.

  El-Erian was consistently wrong about almost everything last year, but this year, suddenly, he has been the go-to guy for the economic media. Mohamed has shifted gears entirely in 2020, flip-flopping on his outlook and presenting, finally, a realistic analysis of the situation.  He is now being presented as the wise man on the mountain warning us of impending disaster.

  This is a classic case of the globalist “savior” narrative in play. They lie about the danger of collapse right up until the collapse becomes obvious to the public, and then they suddenly start warning of the collapse when it is too late for the public to do anything about it. That is to say, they keep the public unprepared and complacent for as long as possible, then act like they predicted the whole mess at the last minute.

  Elon Musk

  The great fake liberty billionaire.  A long time globalist, Musk seems like an enigma, but he is really rather simple. As a classic narcissist, Musk switches his persona to ride what he sees as the waves of public sentiment. He wants to be all things to all people and has bought into his own hype. A couple of years ago Musk was a globalist gatekeeper, a top guest of the Global Government Summit, a proponent of universal basic income, and argued in favor of transhumanism.

  Musk’s companies are lavished with praise in the media despite their minimal global market share.  Being one of the only carmakers in the US does mean Tesla is one of the “biggest” in the US, I suppose (but how often do you actually see a Tesla on the road outside of California?).  The problem is Musk survives predominantly by siphoning up billions in government funding and taxpayer dollars. Without such funding, Musk would have been out of business a long time ago.  This fact runs contrary to Musk’s new persona as a kind of libertarian, small government businessman.

  Also keep in mind that Musk’s business model relies on global warming propaganda flowing out of the same elitist circles he enjoys when he’s not “speaking out” about government tyranny.  If carbon controls are not enforced by governments (and if gas prices stay low), Musk’s high-priced electric cars have no market.

  While Musk’s companies live primarily on government welfare, the guy acts like he’s some kind of savant, and he has a lot of people fooled on this account on both sides of the political spectrum. It is truly astounding.  If he is a “genius” at anything, it is that he is an effective con man.

  For now, Musk is attempting to hook into the alternative media and the rise of the liberty movement with his anti-lockdown tweets and sudden opposition to globalism. Has Musk been “red pilled”?  I suspect he will flip-flop again in due course. If Musk wants to cut off all ties to his many friends in the globalist community then perhaps he has turned a new leaf, but I seriously doubt it.

  Dr. Anthony Fauci

  One of the people that helped create the coronvirus outbreak is the leading Trump Administration talking head on the coronavirus response. An avid defender of the WHO and, along with Trump, a defender of China’s rigged data back in January, Fauci is the guy who, in 2015, greenlit the millions of dollars in funding on coronavirus research at the Level 4 lab in Wuhan, China.  This is the same lab that is now under investigation for releasing the virus on the world, and Fauci’s funding went directly into research on coronavirus transmission from bats to other mammals.

  All I have to ask is, why has this man been at the forefront of the pandemic response for the US? Now in self isolation for possible infection, perhaps Fauci will fade into the background as he is further exposed as a participant in the creation of this pandemic.

  Greta Thunburg

  Thunburg is not so much a global elite as she is a useful idiot.  A puppet of her activist parents, Thunburg only parrots the same global warming arguments that have already been debunked year after year, yet she continues to be elevated in the mainstream media as a spokesgirl for environmentalism.  Why?  Because the “children are our future”, and leftists love the idea of brainwashed kid activists.  If Thunburg is any indication of the next generation, the future is bleak.

  While there is still zero concrete evidence that human carbon emissions lead directly to changes in the Earth’s climate, it is true that the climate does “change” over time.  Of course, shifts in activity on the gigantic nuclear fusion reactor in space known as THE SUN are probably more responsible for temperature changes on the Earth than the tiny 0.04% of carbon in the Earth’s atmosphere.  Don’t tell the political left this, though, or you might be labeled a “climate denier”…

  Thunburg and other climate activists have suddenly been pushed to the forefront recently to comment on the pandemic situation.  This might seem rather bizarre, but it makes sense when you realize how the pandemic is being exploited by the globalists to achieve certain goals.  Every agenda of the globalists from carbon emissions reductions to the suppression of industrial manufacturing to the destruction of large scale farming and even to the reduction of meat in people’s diets is being accomplished right now by the coronavirus and the government shutdowns.  Where climate activists failed, the virus is making headway.

  Beyond that, climate activists are now arguing that the restrictions put in place because of the pandemic should be KEPT IN PLACE because of global warming.  You see how that works?  One has nothing to do with the other, but the technocrats will force the public to see them as related if they can.  Just “listen to the scientists”, people!  Listen and obey the high priests of the technotronic era.  Stop demanding evidence, you aren’t “smart enough” to understand it anyway.  Only UN funded labs have the power to decipher the magical math behind global warming studies.

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  The pandemic will open the door to many lies and the flood of disinformation the alternative media has been working so hard to counter is going to explode beyond anything we’ve seen in the past.  The elites are at a crossroads.  They have to turn the public towards supporting collectivism and tyranny now, or they may find themselves facing the business end of a large number of torches and pitchforks.  At bottom, these elites should be in prison, not on TV dictating to the people about how they should behave and what freedoms they should give up during the crisis.

  *  *  *

  If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch.  Learn more about it HERE.

  

• New Zealand Uses Pandemic To Explore Four-Day Workweek
  New Zealand Uses Pandemic To Explore Four-Day Workweek
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 05/20/2020 – 23:45

  As New Zealand’s economy adjusts to the COVID-19 pandemic, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has pitched a four-day workweek and other flexible working options, saying it will stimulate the economy, boost domestic tourism and encourage better work-life balance while the country’s borders remain closed to foreign nationals, according to The Guardian.

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  The pitch comes as the NZ economy is expected to contract up to 8% this year according to the IMF, while unemployment could hit 15% – 30%.

  Ardern was sharing suggestions during a Facebook live session while she was in the tourist city of Rotorua – adding that New Zealanders would travel more within the island nation if they had more flexibility, helping the country’s collapsed tourism sector.

  “I hear lots of people suggesting we should have a four-day workweek. Ultimately that really sits between employers and employees. But as I’ve said there’s just so much we’ve learnt about Covid and that flexibility of people working from home, the productivity that can be driven out of that,” said Ardern.

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  “I’d really encourage people to think about that if you’re an employer and in a position to do so. To think about if that’s something that would work for your workplace because it certainly would help tourism all around the country.”

  Andrew Barnes is the founder of Perpetual Guardian, a business of more than 200 people that transitioned to a four-day workweek in 2018.

  Barnes found the shift made his employees happier and more productive and said the regime also had benefits for mental and physical health, the environment, family and social lives, and climate change.

  “New Zealand could definitely go to a four-day week in the aftermath of Covid, and in fact it would be a strategy to rebuild the economy and particularly the hard-hit tourism market as it pivots to a domestic focus,” Barnes said.

  “We need to retain all the productivity benefits working from home has brought, including cleaner air and a lack of gridlock lost productivity from commuting while helping businesses stay afloat. We have to be bold with our model. This is an opportunity for a massive reset.” –The Guardian

  According to Barnes, a four-day workweek could be modeled after the German system of kurzarbeit, or “short work,” which would theoretically allow people to remain in their jobs.

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  “Finally, we have to factor in the need to address widespread mental health problems,” said Barnes. “The Kindness Institute reported a 25% uptick in use of its services during lockdown, so we must understand that there has to be a focus on mental health in order to resurge economically. The 4 Day Week is a tool to protect the health of workers in every respect, making this model all the more relevant to the new world we find ourselves in.“

  

• Scientists Discover Evidence Of Parallel Universe Where Time Flows Backward
  Scientists Discover Evidence Of Parallel Universe Where Time Flows Backward
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 05/20/2020 – 23:25

  Authored by Jake Anderson via TheMindUnleashed.com,

  The existence of parallel universes sounds like science fiction, but over the years a number of prominent physicists have come to believe the idea is not only compatible with conventional physics but that it may explain some of the anomalies in quantum theory.

  A new discovery in Antarctica has caused a stir in scientific circles as possibly representing the first tangible physical evidence of a parallel universe.

  Scientists working for NASA’s Antarctic Impulsive Transient Antenna (ANITA) have been conducting a cosmic ray detection experiment. Antarctica is the ideal environment for such an endeavor because a persistent wind of high-energy particles rains down from outer space unperturbed by radio noise.

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  ANITA Antarctic Hang Test/University of Hawai’i at Manoa

  ANITA is a stratospheric balloon that ferries complicated instruments high into the air over Antarctica, surveying over a million square kilometers. Its instruments search for heavier tau neutrinos trapped by solid-state matter. But while these high-energy particles do not pass through the Earth, like their lighter low-energy cousins, they should be originating from out in space and moving “down” toward us.

  However, ANITA scientists discovered something surprising: tau neutrino particles that seem to be arising “up” from the Earth, implying that they’re moving backward in time.

  Principal ANITA investigator Peter Gorham, an experimental particle physicist at the University of Hawaii, says he was surprised by this and checked for computational or equipment glitches to explain the finding.

  “What we saw is something that looked just like a cosmic ray, as seen in reflection off the ice sheet, but it wasn’t reflected,” said Gorham.

   “It was as if the cosmic ray had come out of the ice itself. A very strange thing. So we published a paper on that, we just suggested that this was in pretty strong tension with the standard model of physics.”

  Gorham says these “impossible events” are controversial but “could indicate that we’re actually seeing a new class of sub-atomic particle that’s very penetrating. Even more penetrating than a neutrino, which is pretty hard to do. This particle would be passing through almost the entire earth. So this could be an indication of some new type of physics, what we call beyond the standard model of physics.”

  Surprisingly enough, one of the simplest explanations for such a finding is that when the Big Bang occurred 13.8 billion years ago, it formed both our universe and a mirror universe where time flows in reverse. Inhabitants of that universe would likely not experience time going backward but would rather perceive us as the reverse universe.

  “Not everyone was comfortable with the hypothesis,” Gorham told New Scientist.

  Another possibility is that the Earth was inundated from cosmic rays from a supernova blast that penetrated our planet.

  Scientists have increasingly come to accept the possibility of multiple universes. A few years ago astronomers considered evidence of a “bruise” on our universe, an anomalous “cold spot” that could represent an ancient collision with another universe in the multiverse.

  Stephen Hawking’s final paper, released posthumously, proposed a theory for explaining alternate universes.

  

• Futures Slide Back Under 2,950 After Trump Slams Xi In Angry Tweetstorm
  Futures Slide Back Under 2,950 After Trump Slams Xi In Angry Tweetstorm
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 05/20/2020 – 23:11

  Update: the editor in chief of the Global Times, Hu Xijin, who is always on alert on twitter, was quick to respond to Trump with the following tweet, which also received permission from “the top”:

  Chinese netizens wish for your reelection because you can make America eccentric and thus hateful for the world. You help promote unity in China and you also make intl news as fun as comedy. Chinese netizens call you “Jianguo,” meaning “help to construct China”.

  On the contrary, Chinese netizens wish for your reelection because you can make America eccentric and thus hateful for the world. You help promote unity in China and you also make intl news as fun as comedy. Chinese netizens call you “Jianguo,” meaning “help to construct China”. pic.twitter.com/Fzj5fvmWcx

  — Hu Xijin 胡锡进 (@HuXijin_GT) May 21, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Of course, this feud between Trump and Xi makes for good theater, but it only takes one small error to push the wrong button by mistake.

  * * *

  And just like that, spoos are back under the critical 2,950 resistance level.

  Just when it seemed that Emini futures were about to break out from the narrow channel they had been boxed in for the past month, and where the 2,950 level was suddenly breached after repeated failed attempts…

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  … Trump decided to drop some late night tweets, escalating what had been an already tense day for US-China relations, and accusing China’s Xi Jinping of being behind a “disinformation and propaganda attack on the United States and Europe” and that China could have “easily stopped the plague but they didn’t”

  “It all comes from the top,” Trump said accusing China’s president Xi in a trio of tweets on Wednesday night, in which he claimed that China was “desperate” to have Joe Biden win the presidential race (he is probably right on that).

  ….It all comes from the top. They could have easily stopped the plague, but they didn’t!

  — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 21, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  China is on a massive disinformation campaign because they are desperate to have Sleepy Joe Biden win the presidential race so they can continue to rip-off the United States, as they have done for decades, until I came along!

  — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 21, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  What was new about Trump’s Wednesday night tweets, and why the market reacted like it did, is because While Trump has often blamed China for causing the coronavirus pandemic, he was careful to maintain that his relationship with Xi remains strong and never reference the Chinese president in one of his rants. Now that Xi has been dragged into the feud, the Chinese president needs to responds, or else risk looking weak before his country, and it is Xi’s response that markets are now dreading.

  Trump’s tweet came hours after the Senate passed a bill to clamp down on Chinese companies listed in the US, and shortly after the White House issued a broad critique of China’s economic and military policies in a report to Congress, in which it accused Beijing of intellectual property theft and economic protectionism, however without detailing what specific actions the U.S. will take in response. The report also faulted China for human rights abuses, including detaining ethnic and religious minorities such as the Uighurs, and for “engaging in provocative and coercive” military activities in areas including the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait.

  The administration also said that the decades-long policy toward China – based on the presumption that deepening engagement would help the country become a more economically and politically open society – was wrong.

  China “has chosen instead to exploit the free and open rules-based order and attempt to reshape the international system in its favor,” the report said. And China’s “expanding use of economic, political, and military power to compel acquiescence from nation states harms vital American interests and undermines the sovereignty and dignity of countries and individuals around the world.”

  In a reverse tit-for-tat, China’s foreign ministry earlier also fired back with similar charges, saying the Trump administration was looking to obscure the facts around the virus to deflect from its own shortcomings.

  Earlier on Wednesday, China’s foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said that Pompeo’s congratulations to Taiwan’s Tsai Ing-wen, in which he called her “Taiwan’s president” and boasted about the “partnership” between the US and Taiwan, are in “serious violation” of the “one-China” principle and the three China-US joint communiques which make up the Phase 1 trade deal between the two nations, and “constitute grave interference in China’s internal affairs.”

  “China deplores and condemns US interference and will take necessary measures in response to the US erroneous practices”, and the “consequences will be borne by the US side” Zhao warned.

  Shortly after, China’s Global Times tweeted that it urges the US, among other things, to sstop interfering in China’s internal affairs, and to stop undermining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, as well as China-US bilateral relations.

  And so on, and on, and on, until eventually the next escalation will be one from which there is no quick and easy de-escalation.

  Perhaps in anticipation of that, following today’s sharp jump in stocks, risk ticked lower and after plunging on Wednesday, the dollar rose against its G-10 peers with AUD and NZD underperforming most in G10 on haven demand as U.S.-China tensions take center stage ahead of China’s National People’s Congress starting Friday. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index advanced 0.3%, its first rise in four days and as markets “suddenly” realize just how deep the conflict between the US and China has become.

  The Australian dollar – often a proxy for US-China sentiment- led declines against the greenback among G-10 currencies after surging to the highest in more than two months on Wednesday. The offshore yuan also weakened after two days of gains and following a weaker than expected fixing by the PBOC earlier in the session.

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• San Diego's Legendary Burritos Now Have 'COVID-19 Surcharge'
  San Diego’s Legendary Burritos Now Have ‘COVID-19 Surcharge’
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 05/20/2020 – 23:05

  One of the best things about San Diego is its legendary burrito scene. Known for being inexpensive and filling, meats such as carne asada (sliced skirt steak) and carnitas (pork) are marinated for days before being grilled to perfection for a California burrito or similar.

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  Now, thanks to soaring prices for meat and beef shortages which made headlines earlier this month, some San Diego taco shops are adding a COVID-19 surcharge due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, according to NBC 7 San Diego.

  Today, more than two months after the coronavirus pandemic reached San Diego County, locals have reported finding signs at their local taco shops that alert customers of a rise in the price of California Burritos, as well as Carne Asada Burritos, due to the impact of the COVID-19 crisis.

  For instance, last week a sign spotted at a Los Panchos Taco Shop on Waring Road near Zion Avenue in Allied Gardens read, in part: “The COVID-19 situation continues to bring unexpected beef and pork plant closures. This is creating a shortage of product into commerce and therefore protein prices are skyrocketing.”

  As a result, that taco shop – on that same sign – had to let customers know that a surcharge of $1.25 is now being charged to all carne asada items, including the California Burrito. –NBC 7

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  According to the San Diego City Attorney’s Office, restaurants are allowed to increase prices during a State of Emergency as long as the surcharge is clearly disclosed prior to purchase, and it’s directly linked to an increase in prices incurred by the establishment.

  “We understand the catastrophic impact that the pandemic has had on our local restaurants and that they are likely taking on new costs in order safely serve customers,” said the City Attorney’s office. “We’re hopeful that restaurants will continue to clearly disclose any necessary price increases to customers before they place their orders.”

  

• Test Positive For COVID-19, End Up In A Police Database
  Test Positive For COVID-19, End Up In A Police Database
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 05/20/2020 – 22:45

  Authored by Adam Dick via The Ron Paul Institute for Peace & Prosperity,

  So you are curious whether you have coronavirus? You could take a coronavirus test to find out. Well, not really find out, since the test results are not reliable. Nonetheless, you can take a test to obtain at least a Magic 8 Ball level answer of if you are or are not infected with coronavirus.

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  Here is some information likely unknown to many people when they are tested: The names and addresses of people who test positive are often handed over to police departments that can input or tag those names and addresses in police databases.

  Kimberlee Kruesi provides the details in a Tuesday Associated Press article. She starts off her article with the following revelation:

  More than 11 million people have been tested in the U.S. for COVID-19, all with the assurance that their private medical information would remain protected and undisclosed.

  Yet, public officials in at least two-thirds of states are sharing the addresses of people who tested positive with first responders — from police officers to firefighters to EMTs. An Associated Press review found that at least 10 of those states also share the patients’ names.

  Kinda makes those coronavirus tests that many government officials and people in the media have been promoting seem less warm and fuzzy, doesn’t it?

  Continue reading Kruesi’s article here…

  

• Bodybuilder Shares Shocking "Before And After" Photos After Nearly Dying Of COVID-19
  Bodybuilder Shares Shocking “Before And After” Photos After Nearly Dying Of COVID-19
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 05/20/2020 – 22:25

  Mike Schultz is a healthy 43-year-old nurse from San Francisco. He’s gay, and a bodybuilder with no underlying health conditions, weighing in at a sprite-like 190 lbs despite his ripped physique. 

  Men like Schultz typically aren’t considered “high risk” coronavirus patients. But that didn’t stop him from contracting a particularly virulent infection, leading him to be hospitalized in mid-March, then moved to another hospital, where he was intubated for nearly five weeks.

  Remember, only roughly 1/5 patients who are intubated due to coronavirus die. Schultz shared his story on his instagram, long with some shocking before-and-after shots.

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  Schultz shared his story with Buzzfeed News.

  “I wanted to show it can happen to anyone. It doesn’t matter if you’re young or old, have pre-existing conditions or not. It can affect you,” Schultz told BuzzFeed.

  “I knew what I thought going in [about the coronavirus]. I didn’t think it was as serious as it was until after things started happening,” he said. “I thought I was young enough for it not to affect me, and I know a lot of people think that.”

  Schultz flew to Boston to visit his boyfriend Josh Hebblethwaite on March 14, just one week after the two had traveled to Miami for a music festival where dozens of others were diagnosed with the virus.

  “We knew it was out there,” Schultz said. “There were no real restrictions in place, though. No lockdowns. We just thought, ‘Well, we gotta wash our hands more and be wary of touching our face.”

  Shortly after arriving, Schultz began feeling very ill. When he arrived at a hospital, he had a temperature of 103 degrees and his lungs had filled with fluid.

  “They took him right in and didn’t let me stay to say goodbye,” Hebblethwaite said.

  Schultz was intubated, and four-and-a-half weeks later, was taken off the ventilator and came too, thinking only a week or so had passed. He was extremely disoriented at first, but after eating his first real meal in weeks – two McDonald’s burgers – he told Buzzfeed he was feeling much better.

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  Still, despite his miraculous story, Schultz said he and his boyfriend have received a torrent of online harassment from ‘stay at home, save lives’ diehards who have mocked him and claimed he “deserved” to get sick for attending the music festival in Fla.

  Still, “progressive” media org like Buzzfeed have become obsessed with the stories of seemingly healthy young people who struggled with life-threatening bouts of the virus. We suspect this is part of a campaign to scare young, healthy people into staying indoors for fear of the virus.

  All the ‘financially privileged’ hipsters who write for Buzzfeed probably wouldn’t understand, but many of the people venting their frustrations with the lockdown on social media are doing so because they’re afraid of losing their livelihood, not because the think the virus is some kind of hoax or “a little flu”, as Bolsonaro would call it.

  Then again, what else would you expect from a bunch of freelance writers who depend on their parents to help with the rent on their Brooklyn apartments? The pressure faced by people with real responsibilities, who will suffer very real and terrifying consequences if they can’t cover their nut – they can’t simply move back in with mom and dad if you get sick, or things go south financially – are entirely foreign to them.

  

• Deaths Vs. Economic Pain: Cable News' Imbalanced Picture
  Deaths Vs. Economic Pain: Cable News’ Imbalanced Picture
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 05/20/2020 – 22:15

  Submitted by Kalev Leetaru of RealClearPolitics

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  Almost three months ago, COVID-19 became an inextricable part of American life. As the economy ground to a halt and unemployment soared, television news channels have focused the majority of their attention on the health impacts of the disease, while paying far less attention to the devastating economic harms, including historic job losses. A closer look at how channels are presenting the coronavirus crisis reveals stark differences, from CNN’s ever-present infections dashboard to Fox News’ periodic scrolling updates, offering clues to the increasingly partisan reaction to the pandemic.

  The timeline below shows the percentage of daily airtime on BBC News, CNN, MSNBC and Fox News mentioning “COVID-19” or “coronavirus” or “virus” since the start of this year, using data from the Internet Archive’s Television News Archive processed by the GDELT Project. (Click to enlarge, or view the live data here.)

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  All four channels started covering the pandemic on Jan. 18, but BBC has consistently devoted a greater portion of its airtime to it. CNN’s coverage volume has remained largely unchanged since early March, while BBC and MSNBC have both slightly decreased their mentions over the course of this month. Fox News is a notable outlier, steadily decreasing its coverage since April 26.

  In contrast, since March “unemployment” or “unemployed” or “jobless” or “job losses” have received just 10%-20% of the attention paid to “death” or “deaths” or “died” or “infection” or “infections.”

  Yet the visual nature of television news means that the channels aren’t limited to just periodic verbal mentions of these term and related statistics. In CNN’s case, every day since March 20, the channel has displayed an on-screen infographic with live COVID-19 infection and death counts for a total of eight hours a day, seven days a week, for nearly two months now.

  A typical version of CNN’s dashboard can be seen in the clip below.

  Since April 3, GDELT has also analyzed the on-screen text of MSNBC, Fox News and BBC, allowing for a similar search of their on-screen health counts. However, as the graph below shows, other than CNN, only MSNBC displays the text “Johns Hopkins” (the source of the data) daily on-screen for any length of time and it is shown only a fraction of the time CNN does.

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  MSNBC has used several iterations of its COVID-19 dashboard, from this early version that looks very similar to CNN’s tracker.

  To this later more streamlined version.

  Fox News has occasionally run the CNN tracker by virtue of playing clips from CNN.

  And it has also displayed the native Johns Hopkins dashboard.

  However, Fox  has also developed its own dashboard, at least one version of which can be seen in the clip below, sourced to “WHO, CDC, ECDC, NHC, DXY,” relying on official government figures directly rather than Johns Hopkins’ compilation.

  So how are the other stations reporting COVID-19 infection and death counts if they aren’t relying on the eight-hours-a-day dashboard model adopted by CNN? The timeline below shows mentions of “death” or “deaths” in the on-screen text of the four channels over the same time period. While CNN has the most mentions, BBC News comes in second, with Fox News and MSNBC nearly equal in third/fourth place.

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  Rather than a dedicated dashboard, BBC appears to communicate death counts primarily through brief unsourced updates in its chyron text at the bottom of the screen, such as “The death toll in the UK is now at 34,636” or “Number of confirmed Covid-19 deaths in the UK rises by 494 to 33,186,” as seen below.

  Similarly, Fox News appears to primarily mention death counts in the scrolling text at the very bottom of the screen, as seen at the start of this clip.

  In contrast, the timeline below shows the total seconds of airtime each day on the four channels mentioning “unemployment” or “unemployed” or “job losses” over the same time period. In contrast to the three-to-10 hours a day each station spends displaying the latest health statistics, job losses are seen for just five-to-10 minutes on most days.

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  In the end, no matter what channel viewers tune into, they are confronted with many hours a day of live death counts compared to just minutes a day about lost livelihoods and ruined lives, perhaps explaining why many officials in Washington – and, to some extent, at the local level — seem in little rush to reverse the economic devastation that they and the white-collar class have largely been insulated from to date.

  

• Globalization, Financialization Are Dead
  Globalization, Financialization Are Dead
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 05/20/2020 – 22:05

  Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via The Daily Reckoning,

  A popular claim is that the 1918–19 flu pandemic killed millions but no biggie, the Roaring ’20s started the following year. It’s onward and upward, baby, once we toss the masks.

  Wrong. Completely, totally, dead wrong.

  The drivers of the past 75 years of growth — globalization and financialization — are dead, and so is everything that depended on them for “growth.”

  Here’s what’s poorly understood: Globalization and financialization die when they stop expanding.

  Just as a shark dies if it stops swimming forward, globalization and financialization die once they stop expanding, because their viability depends on expansion.

  Globalization and financialization have been losing momentum for years.

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  Globalization Has Strip-Mined Economies

  Under the guise of “opening markets,” globalization has strip-mined every economy that can’t print a reserve currency and hollowed out economies globally as only globally competitive sectors survive globalization.

  The net result is that once vibrant, diversified economies have been reduced to fragile monocultures completely dependent on global flows of capital and spending for their survival.

  Tourism is a prime example: Every region that has seen its local economy crushed by global corporations, leaving global tourism as its sole surviving sector, has been devastated by the drop in tourism, which was always contingent on disposable income and credit expanding forever.

  But credit can’t expand forever, as it eventually runs out of income to service additional debt.

  Financialization is not just the expansion of credit and leverage to marginal borrowers; it’s also legalized looting, as the true risks of soaring debt and leverage are hidden in obscure financial instruments and bogus claims of “safety” and “hedging.”

  Excesses of debt and leverage funneled into risky speculations inevitably end in default.

  Asset and Consumption Bubbles

  Financialization manifests as asset bubbles and hyperconsumption as people who never had credit spend up to the credit limits and beyond.

  Both asset and consumption bubbles pop, pushing the financial sector that feasted off the unsustainable expansion of credit into insolvency.

  In other words, neoliberal globalization and financialization — essentially one dynamic — are inherently destabilizing, as all the incentives are perverse.

  Just as asset and consumption bubbles are inevitable, so too is the bursting of those bubbles and the devastation of everything that had become dependent on the expansion of those bubbles.

  And that has real consequences.

  Food security, to take a basic example, is impossible once globalization has destroyed local agricultural production, and financialization has rewarded factory-farming since Big Ag can borrow capital at scales that only make sense in a world of globalized monoculture agriculture.

  1919 Is Not 2020

  Everyone touting 1919 as the model for 2020 is deeply ignorant of history and the destructive ontologies of globalization and financialization. There is virtually no overlap between the world of 1919 and the world of 2020 in terms of financial structures and excesses.

  That globalization and financialization are dead is revealed by what Federal Reserve bailouts and fiscal free-for-alls cannot do:

  1. They cannot create creditworthy borrowers out of thin air like the Fed creates dollars out of thin air.

  2. They cannot force lenders facing mass defaults to loan more money to uncreditworthy borrowers

  3. They cannot force creditworthy borrowers to borrow money.

  4. They cannot reflate asset and consumption bubbles that have popped.

  5. They cannot restore confidence in long, fragile supply chains.

  6. They cannot magically turn unprofitable enterprises into profitable enterprises.

  7. They cannot create income streams — revenues, profits, wages, etc. — with bailouts that continue the perverse incentives of moral hazard or “free money” designed to give debt-serfs enough cash to continue making their loan payments.

  8. They cannot forgive debt payments without destroying the wealth held as debt: Mortgages, student loans, auto loans, credit card debt, corporate junk bonds, etc., are assets that lose their value once borrowers default.

  9. The Fed can buy impaired debt, but that doesn’t change their abject powerlessness (points 1–7 above).

  Financialization was never sustainable, and neither was the destructive globalization it enabled.

  Any system that depended on the ever-expanding exploitation of new resources, debtors and markets could never be anything but fragile. The ferociousness of its rapacity masked its inherent weakness, a weakness that is now exposed as fatal.

  But let’s stick to the U.S. alone for now. The pandemic is having a dramatic long-term effect on Main Street local tax revenues.

  First- and Second-Order Effects

  To understand how, we need to consider first- and second-order effects.

  The immediate consequences of lockdowns and changes in consumer behavior are first-order effects: closures of Main Street, job losses, massive Federal Reserve bailouts of the top 0.1%, loan programs for small businesses, stimulus checks to households that earned less than $200,000 last year and so on.

  The second-order effects cannot be bailed out or controlled by central authorities. Second-order effects are the result of consequences having their own consequences.

  The first-order effects of the pandemic on Main Street are painfully obvious: Small businesses that have barely kept their heads above water as costs have soared have laid off employees as they’ve closed their doors.

  The second-order effects are still spooling out: How many businesses will close for good because the owners don’t want to risk losing everything by chancing reopening?

  How many will give it the old college try and close a few weeks later as they conclude they can’t survive on 60% of their previous revenues?

  How many enjoy a brief spurt of business as everyone rushes back, but then reality kicks in and business starts sliding after the initial burst wears off?

  How many will be unable to hire back everyone who was laid off?

  Falling off a Cliff

  As for local tax revenues based on local sales taxes, income taxes, business license fees and property taxes: The first three will fall off a cliff, and if cities and counties respond to the drop in tax revenues by jacking up property taxes, this will only hasten the collapse of businesses that were already hanging on by a thread before the pandemic.

  The federal government can bail out local governments this year, but what about next year, and every year after that?

  The hit to local tax revenues is permanent, as the economy became dependent on debt and financialization pushed costs up.

  Amazon and online sellers don’t pay local taxes except in the locales where their fulfillment centers are located.

  Yes, online sellers pay state and local sales taxes, but these sales are for goods; most of the small businesses that have supported local tax revenues are services: bars, cafes, restaurants, etc.

  As these close for good, the likelihood of new businesses taking on the same high costs (rent, fees, labor, overhead, etc.) is near zero, and anyone foolish enough to try will be bankrupted in short order.

  Now that working at home has been institutionalized, the private sector no longer needs millions of square feet of office space. As revenues drop and profits vanish, businesses will be seeking to cut costs, and vacating unused office space is the obvious first step.

  What’s the value of empty commercial space?

  Trying to Get Blood From a Stone

  If demand is near zero, the value is also near zero. Local governments will be desperate to raise tax revenues, and they will naturally look at bubble-era valuations on all real estate as a cash cow. But they will find that raising property taxes on money-losing properties will only accelerate the rate of property-owner insolvencies.

  At some point valuations will adjust down to reality and property taxes collected will adjust down accordingly. If municipalities think they can make up the losses by jacking up the taxes paid by the survivors, they will quickly find the ranks of the survivors thinned.

  This doesn’t exhaust the second-order effects: Once Main Street is half-empty, the attraction of the remaining businesses declines; there’s not enough to attract customers, and the virtuous circle of sales rising for everyone because the district is lively and attractive reverses: The survivors struggle and give up, further hollowing out the district.

  The core problem is the U.S. economy has been fully financialized, so costs are unaffordable.

  The commercial property owner overpaid for the buildings with cheap borrowed money, and now the owner must collect nosebleed-high rents or he can’t make the mortgage and property tax payments.

  Local governments spend every dime of tax revenues, as their costs are insanely high as well. They cannot survive a 10% decline in tax revenues, much less a 40% drop.

  The Lesson of Yellowstone

  The metaphor I’ve used to explain this in the past is the Yellowstone forest fire. The deadwood of bad debt, extreme leverage, zombie companies and all the other fallen branches of financialization pile up.

  But the central banks no longer allow any creative destruction of unpayable debt and misallocated capital; every brush fire is instantly suppressed with more stimulus, more liquidity and lower interest rates.

  As a result, the deadwood sapping the real economy of productivity and innovation is allowed to pile higher.

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  The only possible output of this suppression is an economy piled high with explosive risk.

  Eventually nature supplies a lightning strike, and the resulting conflagration consumes the entire economy.

  

• South Korean Soccer Team Fined For Posing Sex Dolls In The Stands During Recent Match
  South Korean Soccer Team Fined For Posing Sex Dolls In The Stands During Recent Match
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 05/20/2020 – 21:45

  A South Korean soccer club has been fined for posing sex dolls in the stands during a recent game, Yonhap reports.

  South Korean football club FC Seoul was slapped with a 100 million won (US$81,410) fine on Wednesday for posing the sex dolls in the stands with signs, creating an uncanny tableau that apparently offended some of the more priggish officials running South Korea’s premier soccer league.

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  The use of more than a dozen life-size dolls in place of spectators (since fans weren’t allowed at the match) took place during the club’s Sunday match against Gwangju FC at Seoul World Cup Stadium.

  In a statement, the league accused FC Seoul of “causing great damage to the image and the integrity of the K-League” and offending female fans.

  The fine is the largest the league has ever levied against a club, according to Yonhap.

  The team has said it will “humbly accept” the fine.

  

• Japan Exports Worst Since Financial Crisis; Korea Early May Export Data Just As Dire
  Japan Exports Worst Since Financial Crisis; Korea Early May Export Data Just As Dire
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 05/20/2020 – 21:43

  If any traders, or frankly anyone out there, still cares about fundamental economic data, there was little to celebrate this evening, when Japan reported another round of dismal trade numbers, with Imports plunging 7.2% in April, worse than the -5.0% drop in March but slightly better than expected. However, it was Japan’s exports – that key benchmark for the BOJ whose goal of keep the yen weaker is not only to support stocks but also to facilitate exports – that was the highlight, with the April number plunged by 21.9%, double the previous month’s -11.7% drop and the biggest plunge since the financial crisis.

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  But if Japan’s number was dismal, at least it was expected. What was more concerning was the latest Korean export number for the first 20 days of May, which some had expected to see a solid rebound in light of the so-called reopening observed this month. Well, it did not happen, and while the May number wasn’t quite as bad as the near-record plunge in April when exports plunged by 26.9% in the first 20 days, the -20.3% Y/Y drop in May – off an already depressed 2019 number – showed that any hopes for a solid global recovery taking hold have been painfully premature.

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  To be sure, there was a tiny silver lining, as semiconductor exports rose 13.4% in contrast to a 15% decline in the same period of April. According to Bloomberg “this supports optimism for an economic turnaround and equities’ rally” and is “likely to give investors fresh reasons to look at the tech sector in Korea and abroad” although we disagree.

  As noted in recent weeks, just like during the trade war in much of 2019, the reason for a sharp pick up in semiconductor trade has been fear that China’s tech sector will soon be locked out of US supply chains – as the recent Huawei news confirmed – and as such any jump in S.Korean semi exports is simply frontloading of demand now ahead of more crackdowns on the Chinese tech space in the future, when Huawei et al may find themselves completely locked out from US suppliers, which in turn explains why as Bloomberg reported earlier, China is planning to invest $1 trillion in its semiconductor industry to if not overtake the US in technology, at least become self-sufficient and not rely on US semi production.

  

• Kyle Bass: All Eyes Should Be On Hong Kong
  Kyle Bass: All Eyes Should Be On Hong Kong
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 05/20/2020 – 21:25

  Authored by Kyle Bass, op-ed via NewsWeek.com,

  In international politics, few things are certain during these uncertain times. But I can predict one: the relationship between America and Hong Kong is in the throes of major change.

  On May 22, China’s leaders will convene for their annual People’s Congress, during which they will discuss the status of Hong Kong and whether to push forward with their rebuffed attempts to impose upon that special jurisdiction the laws and circumscribed rights of mainland China. If they do so, America and Britain will push back—with lasting consequence.

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  Hong Kong has become ground zero for the ideological clash between democracy and heavy-handed Chinese communism. This tug-of-war was on global display last summer, when over two million Hong Kongers—26 percent of the entire population—peacefully took to the streets of Hong Kong, in sweltering 100-degree heat, to protest Beijing’s overreach with a proposed extradition bill that would impose China’s laws on Hong Kong. The people of Hong Kong have completely lost faith in their embattled leader, Carrie Lam, and their police force. Peaceful protestors have been brutalized, pro-democracy figures have been illegally arrested and the Hong Kong Legislative Council’s day-to-day operations have been tampered with by the Chinese government. During the most recent attempt to conduct a Legislative Council meeting in Hong Kong, in a scene that is reminiscent of an event that might take place in a failed state, fist fights broke out between the pro-China members and the pro-democracy members.

  Unfortunately, the rapt global attention and support that greeted Hong Kongers last year at the start of their protests has been sidetracked by other news. But this week, the world should again pay attention to Hong Kong.

  At the People’s Congress, the Chinese Communist Party is likely to push forward with having Hong Kong implement a full set of laws with “Chinese characteristics” that give Beijing the right to essentially do whatever it pleases. This will shatter the Sino-British Joint Declaration of 1984, in which China agreed to allow Hong Kong to continue to operate “autonomously” until 2047. After 156 years of Hong Kongers experiencing British rule and all the freedoms and rights that accompanied it, expect larger and more dynamic protests and (hopefully) more global action from politicians. Recently, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has said that he would not renew Hong Kong’s special trade status until he had seen the outcome of the People’s Congress.

  But absent a complete about-face on that, it is unclear how Pompeo could possibly validate Hong Kong’s continued “autonomy” after the blood-letting the world has witnessed firsthand. In late 2019, Amnesty International titled a piece, “Hong Kong: Arbitrary arrests, brutal beatings and torture in police detention revealed.” Suffice it to say this is not something any responsible autonomous nation would do to peaceful protestors.

  Unfortunately for citizens, at the same time that Hong Kong is experiencing the worst political destabilization since the Opium Wars, the special jurisdiction is already in the throes of the worst economic depression it has ever faced: GDP is down 24 percent quarter-over-quarter annualized. I have been studying the Chinese banking system and Hong Kong closely for the last decade, and I think that Hong Kong is living on borrowed time. (In full disclosure, I run global investment funds investing in this macroeconomic outcome.)

  What happens in Hong Kong will not stay in Hong Kong. The battle between an expansionist, increasingly repressive Chinese communist government, on the one hand, and a Western rule of law-based democracy, on the other, will spill over into Taiwan. Already, the battle in Hong Kong has affected Taiwanese politics: watching China’s Communist Party try to assert control in Hong Kong is the primary reason that a historic number of Taiwanese voters took to the polls to rebuke the pro-Beijing candidate and elect a president, Tsai Ing-wen, who campaigned with the promise of protecting Taiwan’s democracy and sovereignty. Taiwanese voters will continue to be enthralled by every development in Hong Kong, because they know that an aggressive and emboldened Chinese Communist Party is bad news for them, too.

  The world should focus on Hong Kong. This is not just about the fate of millions of peaceful protesters, but about democracy, reneged promises and a global order that is shifting as the Chinese Communist Party continues to change its terms of engagement.

  

• Gamblers Flock To Reopened Casinos In South To Find Them Drastically Altered
  Gamblers Flock To Reopened Casinos In South To Find Them Drastically Altered
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 05/20/2020 – 21:05

  Gambling and social distancing? Not quite yet in Las Vegas, which at this point is only gearing up for ‘pre-opening’ procedures, including mass COVID-19 testing of gaming employees as they prepare to get called back to work. The Las Vegas strip began shuttering in mid-March (similar to East coast spots), a devastating blow nearly unprecedented in history, and at a total cost of hundreds of millions per week in revenue lost. 

  However, as the WSJ details, casinos in Louisiana and Mississippi are opening for the first time since ‘stay at home’ orders were issued. All eyes are on gambling in the south — and what greatly altered ‘COVID-safe’ casinos and social distancing protocols will look like in this context — and as a marker for what’s expected later in larger gaming Meccas like Atlantic City, which has seen hotels only begin taking reservations for mid-June.

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  Lockdown-weary gamblers are ready for the good times to roll, already driving hours to wait in long lines for newly opened – as of Monday – casinos in Louisiana. Neighboring Mississippi will open its casinos on Thursday.

  After two months of closure, “Initial openings will clearly spur people to come out of their homes,” comments Michael Pollock, managing director of consulting firm Spectrum Gaming Group. “How much they will spend and how frequently they will visit are tied to larger economic trends.”

  Just how many will flock to the newly-reopened venues long-term remains to be seen, given the experience could be very ‘different’ – complete with new inconveniences like temperature checks, sanitizing stations in the center of casino floors, contactless procedures utilizing iPhone apps, masks, cycling through new decks more frequently, and limited capacity (such as 25-50% entry limitations, depending on the state).

  One local report details the greatly altered and perhaps bizarre regimen in place at Hollywood Casino in Baton Rouge:

  The dealer sprays the dice with a bottle of disinfectant and a masked gambler leans into the craps table, his cheekbones raised in a grin.

  “Leave ’em wet,” he tells the dealer. “They won’t roll as much.”

  The dealer looks back sharply, her hands reaching for a nearby roll of paper towels…

  The dealer must wipe the dice.

  That’s the only way these three men can alter the portions of chips that each rest in one of the table’s six wooden placeholders, every other one sealed shut with black masking tape.

  Louisiana’s casinos are now open, but it’s not business as usual.

  💦 Dealers wipe down dice.
  😷 Casinos hand out masks.
  🃏 Blackjack dealers throw out cards more frequently.

  More: https://t.co/YiBz0xX3qi

  — The Advocate (@theadvocatebr) May 19, 2020

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  Regardless, by current indicators eager people are flocking, even driving hours, especially out of major cities in Texas:

  Shirley Martinez, 45 years old, drove two hours from her home in Houston to Lake Charles, La., with her sister and 85-year-old mother for the casinos’ reopening on Monday. Her mother was ready to play slots after being on lockdown—with hand sanitizer and masks in tow. “She said, ‘It’s open, let’s go,’” Ms. Martinez said.

  “It’s going to take time,” American Gaming Association chief executive Bill Miller told WSJ. “The experience is going to be different for some period of time, appropriately, but I think that the industry will get its swagger back.”

  Meanwhile other states are eagerly awaiting the go-ahead to open back up, but determinant on state gaming boards and health authorities reviewing the new stringent social distancing protocols. 

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  Needless to say the state lockdowns have been devastating for the gaming industry given casinos pretty much never close in more normal times. 

  For March and April revenues for Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware – as an example – dropped more than 75% to $264 million from $1.1 billion, according to the consulting firm Spectrum Gaming Group.

  

• US Banks On Hook For $150 Billion In "Frozen Loans" As Millions Of Americans Skip Credit Card And Car Payments
  US Banks On Hook For $150 Billion In “Frozen Loans” As Millions Of Americans Skip Credit Card And Car Payments
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 05/20/2020 – 20:55

  One month ago, after the banks reported Q1 earnings, we showed that the major US money center banks saw their loan loss provisions surge by roughly 4x from year ago levels in response to expected deterioration in their loan books, with JPMorgan jumping the most, or just over 5x, hinting the other banks are likely underprovisioned for the storm that is coming.

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  With banks set to be hit with tens of billions in charge offs – for which they are trying their best to reserve even if they have no idea just how bad the hit will be – we next looked at what the banks did in the aftermath of the financial crisis. What we found is that most banks reserved total losses anywhere between 4 and 6% of total loans. This time around? So far it is less than 2%, as shown in the chart below.

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  Putting it in context, so far the Big 4 banks have reserved an additional $24BN in Q1 for future loses. But if the GFC is any indication of the defaults that are about to be unleashed, the real amount of losses, discharges and delinquencies will increase 3x-4x compared to the current baseline, meaning that over the next several quarters, banks will have to take another $75-$100BN in reserves on loans that go bad, wiping out years of profits, which were used not for a rainy day fund but to pay for – drumroll – buybacks.

  As we concluded, “this to put it mildly, is a major problem for banks which until now were seen as generously overcapitalized, because if the US banking sector is facing $100BN (or more) in loan losses, then the Fed will have no choice but to once again step in and bail out the US financial sector.”

  Of course, merely delinquent debt does not mean it is automatically in default, a state that usually follows several months of non-payment. However, the longer consumers ignore, or are simply unable to make a scheduled payment, the higher the odds that a delinquent loan will eventually end up in default, resulting in a loan loss for the issuer bank. Ultimately, the total amount of loan losses will dictate if banks are over or under-reserved.

  The question, then, is whether our worst-case $100 billion estimate was in the ballpark?

  Well, it now appears that this estimate may be optimistic, because as Bloomberg writes today, millions of Americans who have so far been getting breaks on roughly $150 billion loans in are about to hear from their banks. The reason: banks are starting to take a closer look at consumers who have arranged to delay payments, “potentially pushing some out of the programs, as the industry tries to get a clearer picture of how many customers are truly unable to keep up during the coronavirus pandemic.”

  It all started with the shock from the enforced shutdowns in March, when as coronavirus cases surged in the U.S. and businesses shut down, millions of people told their lenders they wouldn’t be able to pay their bills. In response lenders allowed borrowers to miss payments for as long as several months on credit cards, auto loans and personal loans.

  And while millions of Americans have been ignoring their monthly credit card and auto loan statements, perhaps hoping that banks will simply forget about their obligations, the forbearance programs from March are nearing expiration dates, when many banks are set to decide whether to continue letting people put off roughly $150 billion of debt including credit cards balances, personal loans and car payments. And in interviews with Bloomberg, executives said they’re concerned that at least some borrowers sought relief unnecessarily and that they should be coaxed into paying. And in what is set to be the next major firestorm, a number of firms aim to whittle out such participants, or charge interest to continue.

  “I would imagine we may have to go beyond 90 days” of forbearance, Southern Bancorp Inc. Chief Executive Officer Darrin Williams said in an interview, referring to the expiration date for many programs. “I feel pretty strongly that many of the folks who took advantage of the consumer payment holiday we provided probably didn’t have to. But if it’s offered, why not, right?”

  To be sure, the rapid rollout of forbearance programs in March averted financial ruin for millions of households, giving Congress time to unleash trillions in fiscal stimulus including unemployment benefits and offer emergency aid to businesses, not to mention give the Fed time to prop up the market, to which roughly 70% of total US household assets are linked. The goal was to avoid a tidal wave of defaults by borrowers who began losing income when states locked down commerce to slow infections. More than 30 million people have since filed jobless claims.

  In an attempt to avoid shocking the US economy into a depression, many banks offered to postpone bills with no proof of hardship, and many borrowers kept working. Some signed up for the programs as a precaution, taking a break from payments to shore up their savings. That, according to Bloomberg, made it impossible for banks to gauge the degree to which their loan portfolios are at risk of going bad.

  Now, two months later, the dust from the initial shock has settled and banks are starting to assess just how much exposure they have to tens of millions of unemployed Americans who collectively owe over $100 billion in debt.

  The numbers are staggering: according to a report from Janney Montgomery Scott analysts last week, some mid-sized banks placed more than 15% of their loan books into forbearance by the end of March.

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  Needless to say, that number of orders of magnitude greater than what most banks have reserved for total loan losses. In regions like the U.S. Southeast, relatively high rates of borrower relief contrasted with low infection rates at the time. Since then, many programs have remained open, continuing to take on borrowers who have fallen on hard times. As a result, the erosion in bank loan books has only accelerated in the past month; meanwhile of those who voluntarily accepted the forbearance option, there has been virtually no “return to normal”, as most are unable to, or simply resume to restart their debt payments.

  Quantifying the forbearance shortfall, credit-reporting firm Transunion reported that lenders in April had nearly 15 million credit cards in “financial hardship” programs, such as the abovementioned deferral programs that let borrowers temporarily stop making payments. That accounts for about 3% of the credit-card accounts the company tracks, Transunion said Wednesday. Separately, nearly three million auto loans were in these hardship programs, accounting for about 3.5% of those tracked. The numbers have surged from a year ago, when 0.03% of credit cards and about 0.5% of auto loans were in financial-hardship programs.

  Keep in mind, these numbers only represent accounts in forbearance, they do not reflect those loans which are still current yet which may soon be impaired after the debtor stops making a payment in the coming months. To make matters worse, Americans were tapping credit cards and auto loans at record levels even before the pandemic to deal with rising costs and stagnant incomes, although in a sharp reverse from this trend, March saw a record repayment on credit card  debt as those who could, paid down as much of their statement as possible, to clean up their balance sheet.

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  It is all those who were unable to do so, or were forced to take on even more debt, that are a challenge to the banks.

  In addition, about 840,000 personal loans were in deferment or another type of financial hardship in April, accounting for 3.6% of those tracked. TransUnion’s estimates include accounts where the borrowers are pausing their payments with permission, as well as accounts that have been frozen.

  * * *

  What happens next? Well, as the WSJ notes, the stakes are high for borrowers and lenders alike. Consumers who can’t pay could be sent to collections. Their credit scores could also drop significantly, making it harder for them to access affordable credit in the future.

  Lenders could face a reckoning, too. Allowing borrowers to pause their payments lets lenders avoid a big spike in delinquencies and charge-offs, at least for the short term. Credit cards in deferment, for example, aren’t factored into the delinquency rates that many lenders report. And yet, while in this carefully choreographed dance of mutual assured destruction lenders hope that being flexible with borrowers will buy time for the economy to recover and for consumers to get back on track with payments, borrowers may simply have no choice but to default. Furthermore, lenders can only shoulder the unpaid loans for so long, and many are bracing for a mountain of defaults that they’ll eventually write off as a loss.

  The question is how much?

  Going back to the report from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, on average, banks had about 5% of their consumer loan portfolios on ice as of mid- to late-April. Based on Federal Reserve data, that would equate to roughly $150 billion in loans, although that amount is surely far greater now as millions more have lost their jobs in recent weeks.

  Also keep in mind that those figures don’t include U.S. mortgage forbearance programs that let borrowers with government-backed loans postpone payments for as long as 12 months while dealing with the pandemic; that’s hundreds of billions more than are currently in forebearance and may go straight to default once the extension period ends.

  * * *

  These millions of consumer-loan deferrals have left banks, shareholders and even regulators in the dark on how many people are truly in distress and what the ultimate cost to lenders may be. While executives expect to get a clearer view of the situation in the second half of the year, for now regulators are letting banks put off that reckoning. In March, a bevy of watchdogs made it easier for lenders to modify terms, such as by lowering interest rates or letting borrowers skip payments. The moves wouldn’t necessarily require banks to label those situations as “troubled debt restructurings,” which require more capital.

  The bottom line is that the confusion will likely persist for another quarter, at which point shareholders and regulators will start demanding answers.

  “My belief is losses aren’t coming until third quarter for banks,” Ira Robbins, CEO of Valley National Bancorp, said in an interview. Because banks granted deferrals to pretty much everyone who asked for it, “we have no idea, outside of hypothesis, as to what’s going to happen from a credit perspective.”

  In advance of what is shaping up as a D-day for the bank, they are now starting to examine millions of account holders to determine who is taking advantage of the programs and who genuinely needs forbearance. The efforts include trying to figure out which customers still have jobs by checking databases operated by major credit reporting firms, according to Bloomberg.

  Moving ahead, some banks are considering letting customers continue skipping payments but reinstating interest on loans, a move that could make forbearance less enticing for those who don’t absolutely need it. Others might require customers to show additional proof they’ve been impacted by the virus.

  “The banks want to genuinely help,” said Scott Barton, managing partner at 2nd Order Solutions, which advises lenders on collections and forbearance processes. But they “would like to start to differentiate and not give away money to people that don’t really need it right now.”

  It’s not that they “want to genuinely help” – it’s that they know that once they accelerate a default, they will have to show it on their books as deferred payments don’t impact delinquent amounts. Meanwhile, the banks also know that in all the chaos, millions of Americans are taking advantage of the forbearance program, but if they did too hard, they will have to disclose the full severity of just how big the hit to their balance sheet will be.

  Which, for once, gives US consumers all the leverage in the neverending battle between man and bank.

  Forbearance deadlines vary by bank and customer. Citigroup Inc. was one of the first banks to offer forbearance, initially granting a 30-day reprieve that it since extended twice until May 31. Which means that in less than two weeks, millions of Americans will have to start paying down their debt.

  Will they?

  That’s the $64 trillion question, one which nobody really wants answered. According to Bloomberg, the nation’s largest banks JPMorgan, Bank of America and Wells Fargo – have generally said they will at least check in with borrowers in coming weeks as they assess how to continue programs and whether to encourage people to use other options. Those can include modifying loans or restarting some payments for credit cards or car loans.

  The good news is that so far, the programs seem to be easing financial strains during the pandemic. Fewer households were late on their cards, car loans, personal loans and mortgages in April than in March, according to TransUnion data released Wednesday, but here too it’s not clear if the banks are in fact motivated to disclose the full severity of the delinquency rate to data collectors. That upended expectations that consumers would fall behind on their debts as a result of widespread joblessness and the forced shutdown of the U.S. economy. Of course, a big reason for why the default surge has not hit yet is that government stimulus checks continue to plug the income gap for millions of households. But those, too, will soon run out.

  Matt Komos, TransUnion’s vice president of research and consulting, said households may be postponing payments to keep an extra cash cushion just in case the economy worsens. Indeed, many consumers who deferred loans sent payments anyway, sometimes far more than the monthly minimums to reduce their overall debt loads, TransUnion data show.

  “A lot of the banks are in the dark a little bit in terms of how to treat customers,” said Alan McIntyre, senior managing director for Accenture Plc’s banking practice. “The measures they focus on to manage credit quality, and those dials aren’t moving. And those dials aren’t going to move until the fall.”

  That’s when the real shock from the second great depression will finally be revealed.

  

• "Nothing Like This Has Happened Before": China To Invest $1 Trillion In New Plan To Overtake US In Tech
  “Nothing Like This Has Happened Before”: China To Invest $1 Trillion In New Plan To Overtake US In Tech
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 05/20/2020 – 20:51

  As we have been writing since late 2018, when it comes to the technological arms race between the US and China, one place where China has been badly lagging the US, is in the production of semiconductors, which is also China’s biggest weakness in its ongoing scramble to catch up with the US technologically.

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  China’s media agrees: over the weekend, we quoted from a Global Times op-ed according to which “although the US had experienced a large-scale deindustrialization in the second half of the 20th century, it still maintains advantages in the semiconductor sector with companies such as Intel, which could complete the whole process of the chip design to producing. The country has held on to cutting-edge semiconductor manufacturing techniques over the past decade.”

  And now that the cold war between the US and China is about as formal as it can get, China has decided it can no longer rely on the US for being its primary source of high-end technology, and according to Bloomberg, Beijing is accelerating its bid for global leadership in key technologies, and will pump more than a trillion dollars into the economy “through the rollout of everything from wireless networks to artificial intelligence.”

  Purposefully invoking the spirit of “Made in China 2025”, a plan that has in the past infuriated the White House, China’s strategic “masterplan” is backed by President Xi Jinping himself, and will see China invest an estimated $1.4 trillion over six years to 2025, “calling on urban governments and private tech giants like Huawei Technologies to lay fifth generation wireless networks, install cameras and sensors, and develop AI software that will underpin autonomous driving to automated factories and mass surveillance.”

  This also means that while pursuing China’s plans to reinvent its technological base and to restructure its entire semiconductor supply chain, Beijing will also create the supreme police state dystopia, one which is even more powerful than the current iteration.

  Predictably, the new infrastructure initiative is expected to rely on local giants from Alibaba and Huawei to SenseTime Group while shunning U.S. companies. And as Bloomberg adds, “as tech nationalism mounts, the investment drive will reduce China’s dependence on foreign technology, echoing objectives set forth previously in the Made in China 2025 program. Such initiatives have already drawn fierce criticism from the Trump administration, resulting in moves to block the rise of Chinese tech companies such as Huawei.”

  “Nothing like this has happened before, this is China’s gambit to win the global tech race,” said Digital China Holdings Chief Operating Officer Maria Kwok, as she sat in a Hong Kong office surrounded by facial recognition cameras and sensors.

  “Starting this year, we are really beginning to see the money flow through.”

  Maria Kwok’s company is a government-backed systems integration provider, among many that are jumping at the chance. In the southern city of Guangzhou, Digital China is bringing half a million units of project housing online, including a complex three quarters the size of Central Park. To find a home, a user just has to log on to an app, scan their face and verify their identity. Leases can be signed digitally via smartphone and the renting authority is automatically flagged if a tenant’s payment is late.

  The tech investment push is part of a broader fiscal package waiting to be signed off by China’s legislature, which convenes this week. The government is expected to announce infrastructure funding of as much as $563 billion this year, against the backdrop of the country’s worst economic performance since the Mao era. It will also include an expansion in the PLA’s budget to contain the “growing threat of US conflict“, as we discussed last night.

  As Vital Knowledge points out in a note on Wednesday afternoon, “depending on how Beijing frames its tech ambitions around the NPC, this $1T+ blueprint could draw the ire of the White House and spur further measures aimed at inhibiting Chinese IT firms (recall the White House pushed hard for China to drop its prior “Made in China 2025” tech plan).”

  

• GOP Senators Issue Subpoena In Biden-Burisma Probe
  GOP Senators Issue Subpoena In Biden-Burisma Probe
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 05/20/2020 – 20:45

  The GOP-controlled Senate Homeland Security Committee on Wednesday voted to issue a subpoena to a Democratic consulting firm, Blue Star Strategies, which Ukrainian energy company Burisma Holdings paid $60,000 in November 2015 in connection with efforts to help end a long-running investigation in Ukraine. Burisma notoriously employed Hunter Biden to sit on its board – paying him upwards of $50,000 per month.

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  The vote to subpoena Blue Star was passed 8-6 along party lines.

  Blue Star responded to the subpoena Wednesday in a letter to Johnson, writing that they don’t understand the need for a subpoena, as they have cooperated – or intend to cooperate – with the committee “at every opportunity” in what Democrats are calling a politically motivated probe.

  Sen. Gary Peters of Michigan, the top Democrat on the Committee, said the committee should be focusing on the pandemic instead of Hunter Biden.

  “We’re in the midst of a pandemic with over 90,000 people who have lost their lives, we’ve got an unprecedented amount of unemployment that’s sweeping across the country,” Peter told reporters. “We need to be focused on the crisis.“

  But Johnson says that he’s moving forward with the investigation because people “need to know the truth.” –NBC News

  In March, Johnson said he wanted to specifically address matters involving Andrii Telizhenko – a former Blue Star consultant who hid behind a nondisclosure agreement.

  “Because Mr. Telizhenko’s records and information would be responsive to the committee’s requests, and Blue Star has refused to provide them, a subpoena to Mr. Telizhenko for these records is appropriate at this time,” read a March letter Johnson sent to members of his committee. “Accordingly, I will be scheduling a vote in the near future to approve issuing the enclosed subpoena.”

  “Blocking the receipt of relevant records, as any committee member voting against this subpoena would be doing, only heightens the risk of ‘disinformation’ because Congress would not have access to all pertinent information,” he added.

  Hunter Biden was paid upwards of $50,000 per month to sit on Burisma’s board while his father was Vice President, and Obama’s point-man on Ukraine policy – where he notoriously forced the country’s prior administration to fire a prosecutor investigating the energy giant.

  Meanwhile, Hunter and his colleagues had multiple contacts with the Obama State Department during the 2016 election cycle – just one month before Joe Biden forced Ukraine to fire the prosecutor investigating Burisma for corruption, according to investigative journalist John Solomon.

  Via John Solomon Reports:

  During that February 2016 contact, a U.S. representative for Burisma Holdings sought a meeting with Undersecretary of State Catherine A. Novelli to discuss ending the corruption allegations against the Ukrainian firm where Hunter Biden worked as a board member, according to memos obtained under a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit. (I filed that suit this summer with the help of the public interest law firm the Southeastern Legal Foundation.)

  Just three weeks before Burisma’s overture to State, Ukrainian authorities raided the home of the oligarch who owned the gas firm and employed Hunter Biden, a signal the long-running corruption probe was escalating in the middle of the U.S. presidential election.

  Hunter Biden’s name, in fact, was specifically invoked by the Burisma representative as a reason the State Department should help, according to a series of email exchanges among U.S. officials trying to arrange the meeting. The subject line for the email exchanges read simply “Burisma.”

  “Per our conversation, Karen Tramontano of Blue Star Strategies requested a meeting to discuss with U/S Novelli USG remarks alleging Burisma (Ukrainian energy company) of corruption,” a Feb. 24, 2016, email between State officials read. “She noted that two high profile U.S. citizens are affiliated with the company (including Hunter Biden as a board member).

  “Tramontano would like to talk with U/S Novelli about getting a better understanding of how the U.S. came to the determination that the company is corrupt,” the email added. “According to Tramontano there is no evidence of corruption, has been no hearing or process, and evidence to the contrary has not been considered.”

  At the time, Novelli was the most senior official overseeing international energy issues for State. The undersecretary position, of which there are several, is the third-highest-ranking job at State, behind the secretary and deputy secretary. And Tramontano was a lawyer working for Blue Star Strategies, a Washington firm that was hired by Burisma to help end a long-running corruption investigation against the gas firm in Ukraine.

  Tramontano and another Blue Star official, Sally Painter, both alumni of Bill Clinton’s administration, worked with New York-based criminal defense attorney John Buretta to settle the Ukraine cases in late 2016 and 2017. I wrote about their efforts previously here. 

  Burisma Holdings records obtained by Ukrainian prosecutors state the gas firm made a $60,000 payment to Blue Star in November 2015.

  

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• Africa's COVID-19 Cases Soar Past 88,000 As 'Coronavirus Apocalypse' Fears Loom
  Africa’s COVID-19 Cases Soar Past 88,000 As ‘Coronavirus Apocalypse’ Fears Loom
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 05/20/2020 – 02:45

  By the first week of April, coronavirus cases in African topped 10,000. Now over a month later that number stands at 88,172 according to the CDC Africa dashboard.

  This after a past 24-hour rise in cases by 2,538 according to the World Health Organization (WHO) Regional Office for Africa on Tuesday. Across the continent at least 2,834 people have died from COVID-19.

  The outbreak first appeared in Egypt in mid-February via what’s believed sourced to foreign travelers, and has since spread to all 54 countries on the continent. 

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  Last month the WHO’s regional director for Africa, Dr. Matshidiso Moeti, sounded the alarm in saying the pandemic in African looks to be potentially devastating: “COVID-19 has the potential not only to cause thousands of deaths, but to also unleash economic and social devastation,” Moeti said.

  The biggest clusters appear concentrated in those regions considered the busiest hubs of international and foreign travel, such as Egypt and Morocco in the north, and South Africa at the southern tip. 

  However, the African continent is still nowhere near the ‘coronavirus apocalypse’ that many predicted (considering a total population of over 1.3 billion people), including for example Bill and Melinda Gates: 

  In an April 10 interview with CNN, American philanthropist Melinda Gates expressed her belief that the coronavirus pandemic will have the worst impact in the developing world. She said she foresees bodies lying around in the street of African countries.

  A day later, it was announced that the United States, where Gates is from, had surpassed Italy in terms of the number of dead from COVID-19.

  …Clearly, despite the massive crisis the West is experiencing, some Western thought leaders continue to insist that a whole continent of 54 countries will collectively and inevitably experience apocalypse as a result of a virus outbreak. Indeed, the white gaze knows no rest, even amid a pandemic that has struck the West.

  There exists a considerable difference between an informed fear and an uninformed assumption. Much of the conversation surrounding the potential impact of COVID-19 on Africa so far seems to have stemmed from the latter.

  Gates is not the only one to be predicting total doom in Africa. A report released by the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) in April stated: “Anywhere between 300,000 and 3.3 million African people could lose their lives as a direct result of COVID-19.”

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  Here’s a breakdown of where the disease is concentrated on the continent based on WHO numbers reported early Tuesday:

  • South Africa has the highest number of coronavirus cases (16,433) and a death toll of 286.
  • Egypt, where 12,229 people have been infected, accounts for the majority of deaths (630).
  • Algeria has reported 7,201 cases and 555 deaths 
  • Morocco has identified 6,930 coronavirus patients and recorded 192 deaths 
  • Sudan has so far confirmed 2,591 cases and 105 fatalities.
  • In the sub-Saharan region, Nigeria has reported 6,175 cases and 191 deaths.
  • The country is followed by Ghana (5,735 cases and 29 deaths) 
  • Cameroon (3,529 cases and 140 deaths) 
  • Guinea (2,796 cases and 16 deaths) 
  • Senegal (2,544 cases and 26 deaths)  
  • Ivory Coast (2,119 cases and 28 fatalities)
  • DRC has seen 1,455 cases recorded and 61 deaths

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  Like in other parts of the world, there’s likely a huge discrepancy between confirmed numbers based on testing availability and the reality on the ground. 

  * * * 

  Africa CDC dashboard for May 18:

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• India: Standing Up To China In The Post-COVID World
  India: Standing Up To China In The Post-COVID World
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 05/20/2020 – 02:00

  Authored by Vijeta Uniyal via The Gatestone Institute,

  As coronavirus leaves behind a trail of human suffering and economic devastation, nations across the world have begun asking critical questions about the global pandemic. Countries are enquiring into Communist China’s handling of the pandemic, which first appeared late last year in the central Chinese city of Wuhan.

  As early as January 14, China had used the World Health Organization (WHO), a United Nations agency, to spread disinformation about the human-to-human transmissibility of Covid-19, a remark that led US National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien later to call the WHO a “tool of Chinese propaganda.”

  While U.S. President Donald J. Trump faced mostly undeserved, politicized criticism for questioning China’s culpability in the spread of the worldwide pandemic and his calls for an international probe into it, more and more capitals across the Western world are making similar demands.

  On March 20, The Washington Post attacked President Trump for even mentioning China in context of the pandemic. “Trump has no qualms about calling coronavirus the ‘Chinese Virus.’ That’s a dangerous attitude, experts say.”

  As late as the end of March, CNN was still claiming that President Trump was targeting China for “political reasons… using entrenched stereotypes and fear of the other to cast off any blame that might fall on him from this crisis.”

  On May 1, however, the New York Post reported that “[m]ore US allies and other countries are joining the Trump administration’s call for an investigation into China, the World Health Organization and the origins of the deadly coronavirus pandemic.”

  In the Asia-Pacific region, Australia has taken lead in asking for an international investigation into Beijing’s culpability in the spread of the pandemic. “Now, it would seem entirely reasonable and sensible that the world would want to have an independent assessment of how this all occurred, so we can learn the lessons and prevent it from happening again,” Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said on April 29. Australia’s demand was supported by New Zealand.

  By way of response, China’s Ambassador to Australia, Cheng Jingye, threatened a boycott of Australian goods if Prime Minister Morrison’s government continued to insist on an independent investigation into the outbreak.

  In Europe, Sweden took a similar stance, asking the European Union to start a probe into “the origin and spread” of the coronavirus. “When the global situation of Covid-19 is under control, it is both reasonable and important that an international, independent investigation be conducted to gain knowledge about the origin and spread of the coronavirus,” Sweden’s health minister Lena Hallengren told the nation’s parliament in a written statement on April 20.

  Under threats of cutting Europe’s medical supplies, China forced the EU to water down a report exposing Beijing’s global disinformation campaign. “The European Union toned down part of a report about Chinese state-backed disinformation because it feared Beijing would retaliate by withholding medical supplies,” the Hong Kong-based newspaper South China Morning Post, citing diplomatic sources, disclosed on April 25.

  China, which first covered up the outbreak of the contagion in city of Wuhan, is now running a global disinformation and intimidation campaign, trying to blame the United States or Italy for the coronavirus. So far, apparently too many countries are now aware of China’s intentions. As Mathias Döpfner, CEO of Germany’s largest publishing house, Axel Springer, argued recently in Die Welt:

  “Economic relations with China might seem harmless to many Europeans today, but they could soon lead to political dependence and ultimately to the end of a free and liberal Europe… Should we make a pact with an authoritarian regime or should we work to strengthen a community of free, constitutionally governed market economies with liberal societies?… If current European and, above all, German policy on China continues, this will lead to a gradual decoupling from America and a step-by-step infiltration and subjugation by China. Economic dependence will only be the first step. Political influence will follow.”

  At the moment, it is unclear if China’s charm offensive, if one could call it that, is working.

  Most recently, on May 4, Sharri Markson reported on a leaked 15-page research document, obtained by Australia’s Saturday Telegraph, written by the “Five Eyes” — the intelligence services of the US, the UK, Canada Australia and New Zealand.

  “It states that to the ‘endangerment of other countries’ the Chinese government covered-up news of the virus by silencing or “disappearing” doctors who spoke out, destroying evidence of it in laboratories and refusing to provide live samples to international scientists who were working on a vaccine.”

  In true Orwellian fashion, top Chinese diplomats are still demanding that foreign governments rewrite the history of the coronavirus outbreak. Under President Xi Jinping’s instructions, Chinese diplomats are running a global campaign of intimidation to divert world’s attention from Beijing’s culpability in the spread of the coronavirus. Dubbed “Wolf Warrior” diplomacy, referring to a popular Chinese movie series of the same name, the strategy aims at silencing and intimidate Western governments, critical media outlets, and think tanks. The good news is that the world is finally getting a good look at the true face of China.

  Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi telephoned his Indian counterpart, S. Jaishankar, on March 24, and suggested that India not use “China virus” to describe the Covid-19 contagion

  “It’s not acceptable and detrimental to international cooperation to label the virus and stigmatise China,” Beijing’s envoy to New Delhi, Sun Weidong, said following the call.

  Apparently unwilling to risk creating a problem, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has so far refrained from confronting China for its handling of the outbreak. To India’s credit, it did play a constructive role in combatting the global pandemic. India came to the aid of its allies by shipping large consignments of the drug hydroxychloroquine and other medical supplies to 55 countries, including the U.S., Britain, France and Israel.

  While India had shown restraint, Communist China has shown little. The Chinese air force has continued its incursions into Taiwanese air space. China has also tightened its grip on artificial islands it created in the South China Sea by setting up fictitious local governments on them. These weaponized islands, fielding military facilities such as naval ports and military airfields, trample on the sovereignty of many of its maritime neighbors, including the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan.

  The United States and rest of the Western world would do well to see the pandemic as a wake-up call and decouple their crucial and strategic sectors from dependence on China in any way. As US General Jack Keane has repeatedly warned the US, China a not a friend; “it is a predator economically, geopolitically and militarily.”

  Beijing has used its status as world’s biggest manufacturer, intellectual property thief, and debt-trap lender to force governments across the world into silence over its culpability for the deadly and devastating pandemic.

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  In the coming post-coronavirus world order, India is well placed to challenge China’s stranglehold over global and regional supply chains. Prime Minister Modi’s “Make in India” initiative, originally envisaged to create jobs in manufacturing sector, could also position the country as an alternative destination for rerouting global supply chain needs, especially in critical sectors such pharmaceuticals, industrial manufacturing, telecommunications and information technology.

  To take advantage of a post-coronavirus realignment, India would do well to upgrade its infrastructure and seriously cut its bureaucratic red tape.

  Modi came to power in 2014 on promises of streamlining the bureaucracy to foster a free economy. Since he took office, India has eased the government’s red tape and opened up the country to foreign companies and investment. During his tenure, the country advanced 79 places on the global “Ease of Doing Business” survey released by the World Bank annually, from 142nd to 63rd place. The country still trails China, which, until its pandemic, ranked 31. India, however, plans to invest $1.39 trillion on a series of critical infrastructure projects, including roads, railways, digital connectivity and power sectors.

  The world is eagerly looking to India and its Asia-Pacific allies, in a strong alliance with the West, to take a stand, face China’s increasing military, geopolitical and economic intimidation, and take up its historic mantle of leadership.

  

• Are European Countries Still 'Flattening The Curve'?
  Are European Countries Still ‘Flattening The Curve’?
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 05/20/2020 – 01:00

  Over the weekend, Russia has become the country with the second-most cumulative confirmed cases in the world after the U.S.

  The country overtook Spain’s case numbers on Sunday. The global coronavirus pandemic is being contained in Western European countries, as Statista’s Katharina Buchholz shows in the infographic below, while Russia and Brazil have now confirmed more cases than many of the earlier European hot spots. Countries like Turkey or India are also on tract to produce larger outbreaks than, for example, Europe has seen.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  European countries are mostly a good way into flattening the curve of COVID-19 infections. According to numbers by Johns Hopkins collected by the website Worldometers, flattening is now very visible in Germany and France, where a total of around 176,000-180,000 cases had been recorded each, as well as in Italy (225,000 cases).

  The development in the UK is, on the other hand, more worrisome. Infections have not yet shown major signs of slowing down, now making the UK the country the fifth most confirmed coronavirus cases worldwide and the second-most deaths. The U.S. is currently the country with most known infections as well as deaths and has a curve of infections which is also still pointing mostly upwards. Infections have passed 1.5 million stateside.

  The countries’ collective aim is to “flatten the curve” of infections. While South Korea was able to (more or less) stabilize its outbreak at around 10,000 cases – due to widespread free testing (including the now infamous drive-thru testing), quarantine measures and the harnessing of mobile technology for public information – China has stabilized theirs at around 83,000 cases. South Korea hit 100 cases on February 20 and managed to leave the steep upward trajectory around 14 days later. In the case of China, more than 100 cases were first recorded on January 20, and quarantine and testing measure succeeded in breaking the upwards trajectory by February 12 – around three and a half weeks later. Germany began leveling its curve around six weeks into the outbreak, while France started seeing results at around seven weeks.

  

• The COVID-19 "Dark Winter" PsyOp: Question Everything…
  The COVID-19 “Dark Winter” PsyOp: Question Everything…
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 05/20/2020 – 00:05

  Authored by Gary Barnett via LewRockwell.com,

  “If you would be a real seeker of truth, it is necessary that at least once in your life you doubt, as far as possible, all things” 

  ~ René Descartes – Principles of Philosophy

  The only real defense that is valid during this exercise in mass tyranny is total refusal to comply with any and all government mandates. We are in the midst of the largest psychological operation (PSYOP) in the history of mankind. By questioning everything concerning this manufactured “virus pandemic,” the resulting attitude cannot leave anything other than extreme doubt, and doubt is what can bring the masses out of the dark and into the light. The newest term being targeted toward the masses is the coming of the “Dark Winter,” which is nothing more than propaganda based lies meant to prepare the sheep for a planned continuation and escalation of this fake pandemic in order to bring about world domination.

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  Operation Dark Winter was the code name for a senior-level bio-terrorist attack simulation conducted from June 22–23, 2001, which was designed to carry out a mock version of a covert bio-weapon’s attack on the United States. The players involved in this were the Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Biodefense Strategies (CCBS) and Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), and the project designers were Randy Larsen and Mark DeMier of Analytic Services. It is very interesting that the same Johns Hopkins along with the evil Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation conducted Event 201, a coronavirus “simulation” just this past October, on the verge of this so-called pandemic. The same players, same objectives, but now it is real.

  Rick Bright, the former director of the Department of Health and Human Services’ Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, and claimed whistleblower, has been all over the mainstream news as of late projecting the “darkest winter in modern history.”

  Using this term was no accident, and in fact was meant as propaganda to frighten and alarm the already cowardly and pathetic public. It was also meant to instill a mindset of a killing plague soon to come. This was completely staged in my opinion, but it will nonetheless be accepted by a society steeped in fear due to this “crisis.”

  I would expect the term “dark winter” to become a new buzzword, as this new term the second time around, is strictly tied to the original scenario, but applied to today’s panic. None of this is coincidence, none of it is accidental, but it is sinister. If things continue as they have been, and this lockdown remains in place, whether fully or partially, the anticipation of this “dark winter” will be on the minds of most all American sheep, especially if it is continually used as the threat of things to come.

  With that in the minds of the people, they will be expecting the worst, and will probably get exactly what they expect; another planned pandemic.

  The current government plan, regardless of what is partially opened this summer, is to continue to mandate social distancing and masks as some sort of faux protection against this non-existent threat, to continue to shame those dissenters that refuse to comply with government orders, and to use more force to stop any dissent. In addition, testing as many people as possible with flawed tests will continue, and more demands to test will be forthcoming. While that is happening, the contact tracing of individuals will become more and more evident as tracking technology is advanced and implemented nationwide. All of this is leading to this current crisis stage’s ultimate goal, which is forced mass vaccination.

  As I wrote a few days ago, “the government has announced that a contract for $138 million has been issued to fund production of 500 million pre-filled Covid-19 vaccine “injection devices,” this before any vaccine is available or tested.” As any should be able to see, this is a complex, but easily identifiable plot that is coming to fruition very quickly and with little resistance. It is planned down to the last detail, just as were all the practice runs that were acted out in the past. I have always thought that bad people will expose what they are up to if only people would listen. Well, this time, they have told the public over and over again what was coming, but few listened.

  The “injection devices” are already available, and now Trump is mobilizing the entire military to make war against the American people, by sending armed soldiers into the streets to vaccinate by force everyone in the country. Without mass resistance, this next phase will be successful, and then the following phase of population control would have already been implemented due to the poisoning, sterilizing, and possibly chipping of all those vaccinated. These plans are being accomplished out in the open, and with the consent, implied or not, of the people in this country.

  Multiple agendas are being advanced, and the destruction of the economy and the resulting dependence of the population on government are going forward and being accepted. Pending legislation to print more money and dole it out to those out of work is already in process, as $3 trillion will most likely be distributed in small part to appease those not working, but most of that newly printed money will be used to continue the transfer of wealth to the few at the top. As debt, poverty, and bankruptcy continues to decimate the general population, the top of the heap will continue to buy up assets at depressed prices with taxpayer money, so in essence, those now starving are helping to enrich the perpetrators of this fraudulent virus scam.

  We are definitely facing a horrible pandemic, but it is not due to any virus. The real pandemic is that the United States government and the enforcers for the controlling ruling class, are waging war on American citizens, and will not relent until the people themselves stop it. This totalitarian takeover will never cease by using the political system, as that corrupt system is why we are in this mess in the first place. A belief in nation instead of self led to nationalistic pride where none was deserved, and has brought complacency, weakness, and dependence on government, and left the people without the will to self rule. The result is obvious, but more than that, it is now fatally dangerous. As I said earlier this year here:

  “No vibrant society can exist in a state of obedience. While many great minds have discussed the natural desire of man to obey authority, including Sigmund Freud, this trait in man does not allow the capability to seek or claim freedom. The obedient are bound to a life of rule, as that is their nature.”

  Freedom and independence can only be achieved and held by non-obedient, non-conforming individuals. Therefore, we must in order to defeat this criminal government force, become a nation of dissenters by not complying with any government order concerning this government created fake crisis.

  

• US Cities Will Lose $360 Billion From The COVID-19 Lockdown
  US Cities Will Lose $360 Billion From The COVID-19 Lockdown
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 05/19/2020 – 23:45

  The coronavirus lockdown in the U.S. is going to cost cities an astounding $360 billion in revenue through 2022, according to estimates from the National League of Cities. 

  Pennsylvania is going to be hit the hardest, according to Bloomberg. The state is at risk of losing 40% of its total revenue this year. Not far behind are Kentucky, Hawaii, Michigan and Nevada. The projections take into account the expected rise in unemployment and assume that every 1% of unemployment will cause tax revenues to drop about 3%. 

  The analysis was performed by looking at how unemployment would affect specific state and city revenue streams. It combined those changes with each respective state or city’s tax structure to estimate the impact. 

  Bloomberg’s piece says that the states need help “from the Federal Government” to avoid drastic budget cuts, but the truth of the matter is that they need help from the Fed. The Federal Government, nobody seems to notice, is broke.

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  The analysis comes a day after the Fed said it may need to implement more stimulus than the $3 trillion it has already enacted. Democrats are currently proposing $1 trillion bailouts for state and local governments. 

  Clarence Anthony, the league’s chief executive officer, said: “If America’s cities are not provided the funds from the federal government, we won’t be a part of the economic solution. This survey, and the findings, puts a face on the impact of the pandemic and the need for city leaders to get direct funding to respond quicker than at the state level, where most of the funding has gone in the past.”

  He continued: “If any communities are facing a big challenge in America, it’s the small cities that may be wiped out, not only by the pandemic and the lack of access to health care. They’re being wiped out because of the loss of jobs to the small businesses, the loss of industry, and loss of hope.”

  The numbers are starting to pile up for major cities: San Francisco is expecting budget shortfalls of $3.6 billion over the next four years and Houston is facing a $169 million shortfall, causing it to furlough 3,000 workers. Houston will have to use its rainy day fund to balance its budge. 

  Good, that’s what a rainy day fund is for. 

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  Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner said:

  “It’s the toughest budget we’ve had to put together since I’ve been mayor.” 

  Philadelphia has had to scale back its 2021 fiscal budget proposal due to a $650 million deficit that is five times larger than the deficit the city faced after the Great Recession. California announced last week it is facing a $54 billion shortfall and New Jersey said it is facing a $10.1 billion deficit. 

  In sum, U.S. cities will lose $134 billion in 2020, $117 billion in 2021 and $110 billion in 2022. 

  “This is an unprecedented time and it’s going to take unprecedented strategies,” Anthony concluded. Yeah, like blowing up the U.S. dollar on a global scale.

  It’s a bold strategy, Cotton. Let’s see if it pays off for him. 

  

• McGovern: Turn Out The Lights, Russiagate Is Over
  McGovern: Turn Out The Lights, Russiagate Is Over
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 05/19/2020 – 23:25

  Authored by Ray McGovern via ConsortiumNews.com,

  Seldom mentioned among the motives behind the persistent drumming on alleged Russian interference was an over-arching need to help the Security State hide their tracks.

  The need for a scapegoat to blame for Hillary Clinton’s snatching defeat out of the jaws victory also played a role; as did the need for the Military-Industrial-Congressional-Intelligence-Media-Academia-Think-Tank complex (MICIMATT) to keep front and center in the minds of Americans the alleged multifaceted threat coming from an “aggressive” Russia. (Recall that John McCain called the, now disproven, “Russian hacking” of the DNC emails an “act of war.”)

  But that was then. This is now.

  Though the corporate media is trying to bury it, the Russiagate narrative has in the past few weeks finally collapsed with the revelation that CrowdStrike had no evidence Russia took anything from the DNC servers and that the FBI set a perjury trap for Gen. Michael Flynn. There was already the previous government finding that there was no collusion between Trump and Russia and the indictment of a Russian troll farm that supposedly was destroying American democracy with $100,000 in Facebook ads was dropped after the St. Petersburg defendants sought discovery.

  All that’s left is to discover how this all happened.

  Attorney General William Barr, and U.S. Attorney John Durham, whom Barr commissioned to investigate this whole sordid mess seem intent on getting to the bottom of it. The possibility that Trump will not chicken out this time, and rather will challenge the Security State looms large since he felt personally under attack.

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  President Donald Trump and Attorney General William Barr, 2019. (Wikimedia Commons)

  Writing on the Wall

  Given the diffident attitude the Security State plotters adopted regarding hiding their tracks, Durham’s challenge, with subpoena power, is not as formidable as were he, for example, investigating a Mafia family.

  Plus, former NSA Director Adm. Michael S. Rogers reportedly is cooperating. The handwriting is on the wall. It remains to be seen what kind of role in the scandal Barack Obama may have played.

  But former directors James Comey, James Clapper, and John Brennan, captains of Obama’s Security State, can take little solace from Barr’s remarks Monday to a reporter who asked about Trump’s recent claims that top officials of the Obama administration, including the former president had committed crimes. Barr replied:

  “As to President Obama and Vice President Biden, whatever their level of involvement, based on the information I have today, I don’t expect Mr. Durham’s work will lead to a criminal investigation of either man. Our concerns over potential criminality is focused on others.”

  In a more ominous vein, Barr gratuitously added that law enforcement and intelligence officials were involved in “a false and utterly baseless Russian collusion narrative against the president. It was a grave injustice, and it was unprecedented in American history.”

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  FBI lawyer Lisa Page.

  Meanwhile, the corporate media have all been singing from the same sheet since Trump had the audacity a week ago to coin yet another “-gate” — this time “Obamagate.”  Leading the apoplectic reaction in corporate media, Saturday’s Washington Post offered a pot-calling-the-kettle-black pronouncement by its editorial board entitled “The absurd cynicism of ‘Obamagate”?

  The outrage voiced by the Post called to mind disgraced FBI agent Peter Strzok’s indignant response to criticism of the FBI by candidate Trump, in a Oct. 20, 2016 text exchange with FBI attorney Lisa Page:

  Strzok: I am riled up. Trump is a f***ing idiot, is unable to provide a coherent answer.

  Strzok – I CAN’T PULL AWAY, WHAT THE F**K HAPPENED TO OUR COUNTRY …

  Page– I don’t know. But we’ll get it back. We’re America. We rock.

  Strzok– Donald just said “bad hombres”

  Strzok– Trump just said what the FBI did is disgraceful.

  Less vitriolic, but incisive commentary came from widely respected author and lawyer Glenn Greenwald on May 14, four days after Trump coined “Obamagate”: ( See “System Update with Glenn Greenwald – The Sham Prosecution of Michael Flynn”).

  For a shorter, equally instructive video of Greenwald on the broader issue of Russia-gate, see this clip from a March 2019 Democracy Now!-sponsored debate he had with David Cay Johnston titled, “As Mueller Finds No Collusion, Did Press Overhype Russiagate? Glenn Greenwald vs. David Cay Johnston”:

  (The entire debate is worth listening to). I found one of the comments below the Democracy Now! video as big as a bummer as the commentator did:

  “I think this is one of the most depressing parts about the whole situation. In their dogmatic pushing for this false narrative, the Russiagaters might have guaranteed Trump a second term. They have done more damage to our democracy than Russia ever has done and will do.” (From “Clamity2007”)

  In any case, Johnston, undaunted by his embarrassment at the hands of Greenwald, is still at it, and so is the avuncular Frank Rich — both of them some 20 years older than Greenwald and set in their evidence-impoverished, media-indoctrinated ways.

  Deranged by Trump

  Sadly, as is apparently the case with Covid:19, older people seem particularly susceptible to what has been called Trump Derangement Syndrome—the notion that Trump is uniquely evil, while, for instance, George W. Bush, who illegally invaded Iraq—what Nuremberg termed the worst war crime, the crime of aggression—was not.

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  Johnston now has his own website: DCReport.org. A piece dated May 8, bears the title “How Barr Is Advancing Trump’s Quest to Become President For Life.”

  Adducing “evidence” of this purported effort by Barr, Johnston indicates that he does not like what Barr’s Justice Department did in moving to drop the charges against Gen. Michael Flynn. He does not like it, not one bit! Here are some additional gems from Johnston’s latest:

  “— Flynn and his company were on Putin’s payroll

  — Flynn made himself susceptible to blackmail by taking Russian money and lying about it.”

  Johnston drivels on:

  “Trump denies the Russians helped him become president. But America’s intelligence agencies, the bi-partisan chairs of the Senate Intelligence Committee, the 418-page Mueller report and emails from none other than Donald Trump Jr. all make clear the Kremlin helped Trump defeat Hillary Clinton. The only issue on which the facts are not complete was whether Trump was a passive beneficiary or he knowingly worked with the Kremlin, whether obliquely or hand-in-glove.

  Just weeks after assuming office Trump held an unannounced meeting in the Oval Office with Russia’s foreign minister and Russian ambassador and a “photographer” for the Kremlin-owned Tass news agency. The Russians revealed the meeting. They also disclosed that Trump gave them “sources and methods” intelligence, which is closely guarded to protect human and technological assets.

  This latest abuse of power to protect a criminal crony who was on Vladimir Putin’s payroll and a secret foreign agent is more than an impeachable offense. Trump, Barr and Shea also sent a clear message: Team Trump harbors no regard for the rule of law, the foundation of our liberties and democratic freedoms.”

  Frank Rich Not Immune

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  Rich. (Wikipedia)

  David Cay Johnston enjoys the company of other erstwhile respected pundits, notably Frank Rich. In younger days, both wrote for The New York Times, where, sadly, writers of all ages are showing acute susceptibility to the syndrome.

  In a New York magazine article by Frank Rich performsing what he passes off as analysis of the recent statement of President Donald Trump about Obamagate. Read it and lament over what has become of yet another formerly respectable journalist.

  “‘Obamagate’, in Trump’s brilliant coinage, is a conspiracy so vast, a crime so dastardly, that it should guarantee his reelection as soon as he figures out how to tell voters exactly what it is. As best as I can glean from his spokespeople on the Rupert Murdoch payroll — at Fox News, the New York Post, and the editorial page of The Wall Street Journal — it was a coup that involved both installing Trump in the White House so that he could preside over the most corrupt and incompetent administration in American history and propelling a beloved national hero, the Kremlin sycophant and former Obama official Michael Flynn, to prison. For a moment, it seemed that at least that second goal might be thwarted by Bill Barr’s effort to hand Flynn a Get Out of Jail Free card. But thanks to the deep-state intervention of a U.S. district judge in Washington this week, Flynn may end up behind bars after all. Obamagate Accomplished!”

  Has Rich lost it? Is this dismissive gibberish meant to be facetious, sarcastic? Is it a pedantic attempt at reductio ad absurdum? — like Saturday’s Washington Post editorial board pronouncement of “ The absurd cynicism of ‘Obamagate’”.

  Does Rich keep up with the news, or is he now filing from Joe Biden’s basement? Is Consortium News included in his diet of reading? Quick. Someone tell Rich that “Russia-Trump collusion” and the far-fetched charges that the Russian Internet Research Agency helped Trump become president — as well as the tall tale that Russia “hacked” the DNC emails — have all collapsed.

  ‘Statutory Senility’

  My father, for many years a professor at Fordham Law School, used to speak jocularly of another all-too-familiar syndrome he nonetheless took seriously: he called it “the age of statutory senility.” As Chancellor of the Board of Regents, he resigned well before he reached that age, offering his own example to superannuated Board colleagues (to no avail).

  These days, I think he would probably consider 70 the age of “statutory senility”, especially were he able to read the blather of once respected journalists — like Frank Rich, whose work he used to enjoy. Let’s make sure someone is working on a vaccine for the Trump Syndrome.

  

• "Thousands Are Starving" – Protesters Demanding Food Clash With Police In Santiago
  “Thousands Are Starving” – Protesters Demanding Food Clash With Police In Santiago
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 05/19/2020 – 23:05

  The coronavirus hit Chile at a particularly delicate time. Back in October, the Chilean military deployed tanks and troops onto the streets of Santiago – the Chilean capital – and President Sebastian Pinera declaring a state of emergency to quell a violent uprising triggered by – of all things – a hike in metro fares (can you imagine that happening in NYC?).

  Now, some of the nation’s poorest are rising up against the government again in a violent protest movement over the lack of government assistance. Specifically, food shortages have left thousands of Chileans with nothing to eat, and the mandatory closures have made it impossible for them to work or buy food.

  Video of the crowds of demonstrators and clashes with police were shared by reporters on social media.

  #Chile | Citizens protest the lack of help from #SebastianPiñera‘s government during the #COVID19 pandemic. #Coronavirus pic.twitter.com/hDjQfjs9ZD

  — teleSUR English (@telesurenglish) May 19, 2020

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  In a televised address last night, President Piñera pledged to get food to those in need, according to the Santiago Times, the capital’s largest English language newspaper.

  Chile has more than 46,000 cases of the virus, along with 478 deaths, but a recent spike in cases and deaths prompted Piñera go impose a lockdown in and around the capital. The strict measures, which were heavily enforced, went into effect this weekend.

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  As the unrest swelled, dozens of Chilean lawmakers went into “preventative isolation” after being “exposed” to the virus. Meanwhile, local officials cautioned that they were caught in a “very complex situation” because of “hunger and lack of work”. In a statement, local officials said they had distributed about 2,000 aid packages but warned the central government that this fell far short of meeting demand. Piñera later pledged his government would provide 2.5 million baskets of food and other essentials over the next week or so.

  “We will prioritize the most vulnerable families,” he said, describing the plan as “historic”.

  Following the announcement, Santiago Mayor Felipe Guevara tweeted in Spanish and asked residents to follow the rules.

  “I understand the deep anguish of millions of Chileans, thousands are starving,” he wrote.

  The unrest seen yesterday isn’t unique to Chile. Across the region, Latin American governments are confronting how to stop the virus and enforce lockdowns without the financial resources to provide for workers during the lockdown. In Brazil, hundreds of people from Sao Paulo’s largest favela marched to the state governor’s palace demanding more support last week and in Colombia, citizens have been hanging red cloths outside their homes to signify hunger. Finally, in El Salvador, people have been banging pots to protest against the lockdown.

  Although Santiago is one of the most prosperous cities in Latin America, a stark rich-poor divide and a growing sense of economic inequality have prompted mass protests in late 2019. Many of the demands lodged by protesters last year, from increased pensions to higher pay, remain unresolved.

  Imagine what will follow when these governments confront the cost of these lockdowns and are forced to cut services even further while raising taxes?

  

• "This Is Despotism, Plain & Simple" – Of Power-Drunk Politicians & Sociopathic Oligarchs
  “This Is Despotism, Plain & Simple” – Of Power-Drunk Politicians & Sociopathic Oligarchs
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 05/19/2020 – 22:45

  Authored by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

  It’s Time To Step Into The Arena

  There’s a passage in Teddy Roosevelt’s famous 1910 “Citizenship in a Republic” speech I want to share with you today:

  If a man’s efficiency is not guided and regulated by a moral sense, then the more efficient he is the worse he is, the more dangerous to the body politic. Courage, intellect, all the masterful qualities, serve but to make a man more evil if they are merely used for that man’s own advancement, with brutal indifference to the rights of others. It speaks ill for the community if the community worships those qualities and treats their possessors as heroes regardless of whether the qualities are used rightly or wrongly. It makes no difference as to the precise way in which this sinister efficiency is shown. It makes no difference whether such a man’s force and ability betray themselves in a career of money-maker or politician, soldier or orator, journalist or popular leader. If the man works for evil, then the more successful he is the more he should be despised and condemned by all upright and far-seeing men. To judge a man merely by success is an abhorrent wrong; and if the people at large habitually so judge men, if they grow to condone wickedness because the wicked man triumphs, they show their inability to understand that in the last analysis free institutions rest upon the character of citizenship, and that by such admiration of evil they prove themselves unfit for liberty.

  The above words strike me as a perfect description of the deep hole we find ourselves in presently throughout these United States of America. It takes a whole nation to screw things up as badly as we have, and boy have we ever.

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  Yes it took parasites, sociopathic oligarchs and a power drunk national security state to bring us to our current state of affairs, but it also took the rest of us. For far too long we as a people have been apathetic, hoodwinked spectators to the life unfolding around us. Voting for “the lesser of two evils” for decade upon decade thinking it might be different this time. Putting up with the economic game that’s been put in front of us, despite the fact that it demonstrably and systematically rewards and incentivizes predatory and destructive behavior. As a people, we have been superficial, indifferent and gleefully ignorant of reality. It’s time to change all that.

  You can consider today’s post a rallying cry to step into the arena. Stepping into the arena is often portrayed as becoming involved in national politics or some other large platform action, but I see it differently. If you think the only way to have a real impact is by voting or running for Congress, you’re likely to give up and remain passive. The truth is your entire life can be repurposed to be an expression of increased kindness, wisdom and strength. It’s the most impactful long-term action most of us can have on this earth, and anyone can do it.

  Change yourself before trying to change the world. If enough people did this the world would change without you even trying.

  — Michael Krieger (@LibertyBlitz) May 15, 2020

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  I think what keeps a lot of people on the sidelines of a conscious life is an inability to intimately process the above. Many people discount the little things, the countless actions of daily existence that impact those around you and cumulatively make you who you are.

  I think one reason mass media puts so much emphasis on voting at the national level is the owners of these propaganda channels know voting will change absolutely nothing. The oligarchy and national security state are fully in charge, and they’re not going to allow the pesky rabble to get in the way of such a lucrative racket by voting. Getting those who are politically inclined to spend all their time and energy on a rigged and completely corrupt phantom democracy in D.C. is a great way to keep them busy with nonsense. It’s also a perfect way to demoralize that portion of the population which understands it’s just theater. If you can be convinced that voting at the national level is the only way to change things, you’re much more likely to recede into apathy and become intentionally disengaged. This happens to a lot of people, but it’s a big mistake.

  When I look back at my life thus far, it was during my decade on Wall Street when I was the most ignorant and superficial . So focused on stroking my ego, making a bunch of money and career advancement, I lost a lot of who I am at my core during that time. I often wonder if that’s the case for a lot of people who achieve conventional success within the current paradigm. It’s fortunate I removed myself from that situation and began thinking more deeply about who I am and what really matters.

  Stepping up and getting into the arena will mean something different for each of us, but the one word that keeps popping into my head is resilience. There are several clear ways to become more resilient. There’s mental and emotional resiliency, there’s financial resiliency and there’s physical resiliency (where and how you live). I see all three as fundamentally important and functioning best when working together. Resiliency starts at the most basic level because if you and your family aren’t resilient, then you won’t be much use to anyone else. If the people of a community or nation lack resiliency it provides the perfect space for authoritarianism and evil to manifest and flourish.

  Case in point, see the following comments by Alan Dershowitz during a recent interview.

  “You have no right not to be vaccinated, you have no right not to wear a mask… If you refuse to be vaccinated the state has the right to take you to a dr’s office & plunge a needle in your arm.”@AlanDersh take on vaccines & masks is vile & un-American. pic.twitter.com/j2C1Rk3d7h

  — Robby Starbuck (@robbystarbuck) May 18, 2020

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  This is despotism plain and simple, and it’s being expressed by a guy who still has considerable influence despite his many Jeffrey Epstein related controversies. It’s going to take a resilient, courageous and ethical public to stand up to scoundrels like this and just say NO. No, you will not grab me, drag me off somewhere and inject something into my body without my consent. We’ve been passive spectators in the destruction of our society for far too long. It’s time to both say no and to create something better.

  When I walked away from New York City and Wall Street ten years ago it was clear what sort of trajectory the country was on, and it’s only gotten worse since. We’re now in the crucial period spanning 2020-2025 that will decide what the next several decades look like. The big battle for the future is here. Right now. If there’s ever been a time in your life to step up, this is it.

  *  *  *

  Liberty Blitzkrieg is an ad-free website. If you enjoyed this post and my work in general, visit the Support Page where you can donate and contribute to my efforts.

  

• China’s Military Seeks Bigger Budget Amid "Growing Threat Of US Conflict"
  China’s Military Seeks Bigger Budget Amid “Growing Threat Of US Conflict”
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 05/19/2020 – 22:29

  With Sino-US diplomatic relations plumbing the lowest levels in modern history, China’s military leaders are pushing for a substantial increase in their budget to be announced at the National People’s Congress that starts on Friday, arguing that the world’s largest standing army needs more resources to cope with volatile challenges at home and overseas. And at the top of the list, according to the South China Morning Post, is the growing confrontation with the US.

  With China-US relations sinking amid a trade war, spats over civil liberties and Taiwan, and conflicts over Beijing’s territorial claims in the South China Sea, recent months have added accusations between Washington and Beijing about the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic. From Beijing’s viewpoint, the military threats are surfacing on its doorstep with US bombers running about 40 flights over contested areas of the South China and East China seas so far this year, or more than three times the number in the same period of 2019. US Navy warships have sailed four “freedom of navigation operations” in the area in the same period, compared with eight in all of last year.

  “Beijing feels security threats posed by the US and other foreign countries are increasing, so the People’s Liberation Army wants a budget increase to support its military modernization and combat-ready training,” said Song Zhongping, a Hong Kong-based military commentator and former officer in the PLA, quoted by the SCMP.

  Although the actual size of China’s defense budgets are a matter of dispute, military insiders say the PLA will want to match or exceed last year’s 7.5% growth rate, with one estimating a 9% jump, as tensions escalate on several fronts, including the perennial Taiwan friction.

  While those increases may not seem outlandish, and pale in comparison to the total US military budget, they would be against a backdrop of a domestic economy severely hammered by the Covid-19 outbreak and the threat of a global recession. In late March, investment bank China International Capital Corporation slashed its real GDP growth forecast for China in 2020 to 2.6% from 6.1% in January.

  One year ago at the NPC in March 2019, China announced defense spending of 1.18 trillion yuan (US$176 billion) which is the world’s second largest. But the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimates China’s defense spending at US$261 billion, which is a little over a third that of the US$732 billion of the US.

  Lu Li-shih, a former instructor at the naval academy in Taiwan, said the suspicion between Beijing and Washington was the worst since the resumption of diplomatic relations in the 1970s, but he rated the chance of a military conflict as low (for now). Collin Koh, a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University, meanwhile, said the PLA and US military counterparts had communication channels.

  “Bilateral military ties … might not be always efficacious, but at least do serve as existing ‘pressure valves’ to forestall and potentially mitigate the risks that arise from growing tensions between Beijing and Washington,” Koh said.

  Still, as the SCMP reports, President Xi Jinping, who chairs the all-powerful Central Military Commission, ordered the PLA on January 2 to boost its combat capacity as relations worsened with Washington. That was a repeat of Xi’s “be ready to win wars” order when he laid out his military expansion plan to the Communist Party’s national congress in 2017. The message has not changed.

  Neither has the focus of attention: Taiwan. In last July’s defence white paper, the PLA said two of its most challenging threats were from pro-independence forces in Taiwan and separatists in Tibet and Xinjiang, saying the army “will defend national unification at all costs”.

  Ni Lexiong, a specialist in China’s naval strategy and former professor at the Shanghai University of Political Science and Law, said under President Donald Trump, US arms sales to Taiwan – including 66 F-16 Viper fighter jets – gave the PLA additional bargaining chips in asking for more money.

  Beijing considers Taiwan a part of China’s territory that must be returned to the mainland fold, by force if necessary. The PLA has planned for such an event since 1949, when the Nationalist Party was defeated in the Chinese Civil War by the Communist Party of China and fled to the island.

  Tensions over Taiwan have ratcheted up since Tsai Ing-wen became president in 2016. She was re-elected in a landslide in January on a platform of standing up to Beijing and defending Taiwan as a liberal democracy. She will be inaugurated for a second four-year term on Wednesday, just two days before the NPC opens.

  In response, the FT reports that Taiwan is fearful that Beijing will step up direct military pressure this year in the wake of the coronavirus epidemic, with increasingly frequent incursions into airspace traditionally respected as a safety buffer zone. Such operations are below the threshold of war but would expand the area China dominates militarily, mirroring the approach Beijing has taken to establish virtual control over the disputed South China Sea.

  “Once the pandemic recedes, the Chinese communists will fly across the Taiwan Strait median line more and more often, until the line disappears,” said a recently retired Taiwanese senior military official. “They will create a new status quo under which they will regularly operate much closer to our airspace, and move around there at will.”

  The median line was drawn by the US in 1954. While the line does not have international legal force, both Taiwan and China have long had a tacit understanding not to cross it to avoid unintended clashes. But in March 2019, Chinese military aircraft crossed the line for the first time in 20 years and have done so on at least two more occasions.

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  Taiwan’s concerns follow veiled warnings from China and come as President Tsai Ing-wen starts her second term on Wednesday, with her country’s international reputation and her own popularity boosted by Taipei’s containment of the coronavirus pandemic.

  Last week, Japanese news agency Kyodo reported that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was planning an exercise for August that would simulate the seizure of Pratas, a Taiwan-held atoll at the northern entrance of the South China Sea. At the same time, the Chinese government announced two month-long live-fire drills near the port of Tangshan, interpreted by some military experts as an exercise for an attack on Taiwan.

  A senior Taiwanese government official said these signals and the PLA’s probing of the median line had heightened concerns that anger over Taipei’s handling of Covid-19 was driving Beijing to take a more provocative course. Taiwan prevented a local outbreak and has seen only 440 confirmed cases and seven deaths, after cutting travel from China early. This success attracted global attention and support for the diplomatically isolated country’s attempts to participate in the World Health Organization.

  “Because of this, cross-Strait relations have become very tense right now,” the senior official said.

  * * *

  Alexander Huang Chieh-cheng, a professor of international affairs and strategic studies at Tamkang University in Taipei, said that while a military conflict between the mainland and Taiwan would be unlikely in the coming two years, as Beijing needed to concentrate its efforts on economic recovery after the Covid-19 pandemic, the risk of conflict had increased.

  “Beijing is expected to continue its sabre-rattling against Taipei, staging more war games to try to intimidate the Tsai government in her next four years in office as long as she rejects the 1992 consensus,” Huang said, referring to a decade-old agreement between Beijing and Taipei to define cross-strait relations. Huang was a former vice-chairman of Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council which oversees the island’s policies towards the mainland.

  China has been running increasing numbers of military flights into Taiwan’s airspace, and in recent media articles some retired Chinese military officials have suggested that the US was not in a position to defend Taiwan because all four of its aircraft carriers in the Indo-Pacific had been hit by Covid-19 outbreaks. Later comments in an influential party journal, the Study Times , suggested a military venture was not part of Beijing’s immediate plans.

  “The Covid-19 pandemic has exacerbated suspicions and mistrust between Beijing and Washington, and likewise between Beijing and Taipei,” Ni said. “China is facing a new round of containment posed by the US-led Western countries similar to the Cold War.”

  Meanwhile, Xi’s national “rejuvenation” strategy for China includes reshaping the PLA into a top-ranked fighting force by 2050, which includes launching at least four aircraft carrier strike groups by 2035, cutting-edge weapons research and development, and revamping the whole military command structure.

  China now has two aircraft carriers; the Liaoning is a refitted vessel bought from Ukraine, while the Shandong is the first domestically built. The Shandong is still undergoing sea trials to meet what is known as initial operating capability, or IOC, for warships.

  The navy has scheduled sea trials for two newly launched Type 075 helicopter docks, a type of amphibious vessel, with 40,000 tonnes of displacement. It also has plans for eight Type 055 guided-missile destroyers, its most powerful warship and among the most advanced in Asia. The first was commissioned in January and three others are being fitted out.

  The PLA modernisation of both traditional and non-traditional military operations would not slow, said Song in Hong Kong. The PLA is also arguing for more funds, citing other complicated and non-traditional security challenges at home, from separatism to terrorism and religious extremism.

  China’s military also found itself at the forefront of a different battle this year as tens of thousands of personnel were drafted into the fight against the Covid-19 disease outbreak in the initial epicentre, Wuhan, in January. The PLA provided doctors to treat patients, as well as soldiers and logistics for quarantine lockdowns, all additional expenditures that affect short- and long-term planning.

  Beside fighting pandemics, the military is also expected to do its part in providing jobs for the rising ranks of unemployed as businesses struggle to recover from the economic damage done by the disease. More than 8.7 million students will graduate this summer and the PLA has been asked to absorb more of them, another reason to request more funding.

  So… the Chinese army is about to grow by millions? Whatever you do, don’t call it a draft or you will be banned by Twitter.

  A military insider said the Covid-19 pandemic added a large, unexpected financial burden on the PLA (not to mention a source of new “volunteer” recruits). “Military leadership is still fighting with the decision makers of the NPC for a budget increase up to 9 per cent for the coming year, even though the global and domestic economic situations are worrying,” said the person, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the talks.

  The PLA deployed more than 4,500 military medical personnel to worst-hit Hubei province and its capital Wuhan, as well as other logistic support elsewhere in the province from February.

  “President Xi also ordered scientists from the Academy of Military Medical Sciences to join the global race to find a vaccine for Covid-19, which is a long-term and costly investment,” the person said. “It’s very difficult to predict the military cost from the Covid-19 pandemic, because we don’t know how long it will last.”

  And speaking of the army’s involvement in the coronavirus pandemic, recall that a Chinese military virologist and bioweapons expert Major General Chen Wei went to the Wuhan Institute of Virology with military scientists in January to “study” the new virus. But aside from that, there is absolutely no connection between the Chinese army and the coronavirus outbreak. None at all.

  

• "Masks On, Clothes Off" – First Strip Club In America Reopens 
  “Masks On, Clothes Off” – First Strip Club In America Reopens 
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 05/19/2020 – 22:25

  Dozens of states are already in the process of reopening their crashed economies. Now the first strip club in the country, located in Wyoming, has resumed pole dancing operations and threw a grand reopening party last Friday called “masks on, clothes off.” 

  “When they [state officials] reopened the restaurants and bars in Wyoming, we were super excited because it’s been very difficult for us,” Kim Chavez, the owner of “The Den,” told FOX31.

  “It’s been horrible to go almost three months without any kind of income,” Chavez’s husband, Greg Chavez, said.

  Wyoming has had one of the lowest confirmed cases and deaths of COVID-19 in the US. As of Tuesday morning, confirmed cases stood at 577 and deaths at 10. Such a low count prompted state officials to reopen bars and restaurants last Friday, which included The Den. 

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  “It was pretty busy,” Greg said, referring to the reopening party. “People had money to spend, and people were out. I think they were excited to be feeling normal again.”

  FOX31 said The Den is the first strip club in America to reopen in the post-corona world. People from surrounding states piled into the strip club for the reopening party. 

   “Last night was crazy. We had people from Omaha and Utah, Nebraska, South Dakota. They made the trip,” Kim said.

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  While normal pole dancing operations have resumed, the reopening has ushered in new health protocols to keep staff and patrons safe as the risk of transmission is still elevated with the threat of a second coronavirus wave that could materialize later this year. Things inside the club looked different: 

  “We just need to practice social distancing. We need to make sure that our customers feel safe when they’re here. We need to protect our staff. And just make sure that we’re doing our best to keep everybody protected and safe,” Kim said.

  All dancers and employees are required to wear masks inside the facility and regularly wash and sanitize hands. Strict social distancing guidelines have been set that includes no contact between dancer and patron. 

  “We can do the dances on stage, but no lap dances,” Greg said.

  Patrons are not required to wear masks but are asked to sanitize hands before entering the club. Sanitizing stations have been placed around the facility for staff and patrons to use. Dancers are required to sanitizer the pole before performing a show. 

  USA Today interviewed several dancers who were glad just to be back at work: 

  “Twenty-two dollars,” dancer Cleo said. “Not too bad!” adding that it’s her first income she’s earned in quite some time. 

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  “I’m super-excited. I’m a little nervous because the virus is still out there, but I’m glad to be able to go to work because a lot of people can’t yet,” said dancer Doris Craig. “The stimulus money was nice, but that’s going to run out, and I don’t like to feel like I’m dependent on the government.”

  Another dancer by the name Breauna Grover, said she’s not too worried about the virus — adding that it poses little danger.

  Read how a Nevada Brothel is trying to reopen its doors: ‘Not If You’re Too Hot’ – Nevada Brothels Unveil Temp-Taking, Mask-Wearing Plans To Re-Open

  Dancers in a post-corona world appear to have added one more accessory to their mix of bikinis, g-strings, and fancy lingerie, which is now a mask. 

  

• Snyder: Fear Of COVID-19 Has Absolutely Destroyed America's Future
  Snyder: Fear Of COVID-19 Has Absolutely Destroyed America’s Future
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 05/19/2020 – 22:05

  Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

  Very few people are talking about it, and even fewer are bothering to object, but by borrowing and spending so much money our politicians are essentially feeding America’s financial future into a wood chipper. 

  It took from the founding of our country all the way to 1981 before the U.S. national debt reached one trillion dollars.  Incredibly, we just added more than a trillion dollars to our national debt in less than a month.  On April 5th, we were 23.9 trillion dollars in debt, and by May 4th we were 25 trillion dollars in debt.  Fear of the coronavirus has caused nearly all of our politicians to suddenly become socialists, and we are being told that trillions more in spending may be coming.  This is complete and utter lunacy, and we are leaving future generations of Americans with a mountain of debt that would absolutely crush them. 

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  But of course our society may not even last too much longer at the rate we are going.  For years I have been loudly warning that our absurd national debt is an existential threat to America’s future, but at this point both major political parties have completely abandoned any sense of fiscal responsibility.  Now our national debt is rapidly speeding toward the 26 trillion dollar mark, and the House of Representatives just passed a bill that would borrow and spend an additional 3 trillion dollars that we do not currently have…

  Last week, House Democrats unveiled their latest pandemic-relief package. The bill combines aid for families, a bailout for struggling cities and states, and additional funds for testing, tracing, and hospitals. The price tag is about $3 trillion—and it comes just weeks after the president signed an economic-relief package worth about $2 trillion.

  Since we are destroying the nation anyway, why don’t we make the grand total a nice round 10 trillion dollars like the progressives at the Atlantic are suggesting?

  After all, we added close to 10 trillion dollars to the national debt during the Obama years and hardly anyone seemed to mind.

  Of course Trump is trying to outdo Obama.  We have already added more than 5 trillion dollars to the national debt while he has been in office, and it looks like more “coronavirus relief bills” could be on the way.

  Yes, borrowing and spending money that we do not have gives us an economic boost in the present.

  But it is also money that we are stealing from future generations, and we are systematically destroying the bright future that they were supposed to have.

  Since Barack Obama’s first day in the White House, we have been stealing an average of more than 100 million dollars from our children and our grandchildren every single hour of every single day.

  And under Trump, that pace has actually increased.

  I know that figure is difficult to believe, but run the numbers yourself and you will see that I am correct.

  What we are doing to future generations is beyond criminal, and it should make every American deeply angry.

  But instead, many Americans are convinced that we aren’t spending enough.

  In fact, Mark Cuban believes that the government should be issuing $1,000 checks to each household every two weeks…

  The federal government has already sent a one-time check of up to $1,200 to millions of American families, but according to Mark Cuban, the stimulus is not enough to offset the economic pain of the coronavirus pandemic.

  The billionaire entrepreneur proposed the government issue $1,000 checks to every American household every two weeks for the next two months, with the caveat that the money must be spent within 10 days of receipt or it expires. It would cost about $500 billion, Cuban estimated.

  Everybody knows that you should never go full Weimar Republic, but since we are essentially doing that already, why not make it $10,000 for every household every two weeks?

  After all, $1,000 doesn’t go as far as it once did.  These days, you can blow $1,000 in a single trip to the grocery store.

  Of course I am being facetious.  We are literally watching our leaders destroy everything that all previous generations of Americans fought so hard to build, and it is absolutely infuriating.

  At this point even the ultra-liberal Washington Post is admitting that “the national debt is out of control”, but of course the Post also keeps on promoting ultra-liberal spending policies.

  We are like a morbidly obese guy that can’t even fit in his own bathtub anymore because he is so addicted to food.  Our addiction is debt, and no matter how loud the warnings get we are just going to keep going back for more.

  Ultimately, the only way that the U.S. is going to be able to service this exploding debt is to wildly devalue the currency.  This is the road that the Weimar Republic, Venezuela and so many others have gone down, and it always ends in utter disaster.

  Only this time the biggest economy on the entire planet is doing it, and the currency that we are devaluing is the reserve currency of the world.

  Sadly, there is no turning back now.  Both political parties are completely committed to this course, and the mainstream media is fully behind them.  In fact, CNN insists that “now is not the time to cut back on the borrowing”.

  So when will be the time to cut back on borrowing?

  If we need to add trillions to the national debt to deal with a relatively minor crisis like this coronavirus pandemic, what in the world are we going to do when really bad stuff starts happening?

  Last November, I was absolutely horrified when our national debt hit the 23 trillion dollar mark.  But by the time this November rolls around, we might be at the 27 or 28 trillion dollar mark.

  Unfortunately, we throw the word “trillion” around so much these days that most Americans don’t even realize how much money a trillion dollars actually is.

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  If you would have been spending a million dollars every single day since Jesus was born, you still would not have spent a trillion dollars by now.

  We are talking about an amount of money that is absolutely unimaginable, and we just added that much money to the national debt in less than a month.

  Thanks to our free spending politicians and everyone that is supporting them, there is now no future for this country.

  We are literally committing national suicide in front of the whole world, but we are so utterly consumed by our addiction that we don’t even realize that we should be deeply ashamed of ourselves.

  

• Robocall Rage: Poll Finds More Americans Losing Tempers Amid Spike In Lockdown Calls
  Robocall Rage: Poll Finds More Americans Losing Tempers Amid Spike In Lockdown Calls
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 05/19/2020 – 21:45

  With much of the nation indoors over the past couple months amid state-ordered ‘stay at home’ measures and the broader economic pause, Americans have faced a new “threat” — not dangerous to health, but nonetheless deeply annoying to the point of rage. 

  Robocalling was already out of control even before the pandemic, but robocalling fraudsters are now capitalizing on people staying at home, according to new data produced by the retirement community company Provision Living. A whopping 91% say the calls have become more common after the coronavirus crisis.

  A survey of 4,000 people found that about 20% have received an unsolicited call or text related to COVID-19 believed to be scams seeking to exploit the pandemic, after Americans have already lost over $13.4 million in virus-related fraud, according to the Federal Trade Commission figures.

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  And another 15% indicated they were called by unknown entities regarding their stimulus check — as more broadly Washington’s trillions in stimulus has unleashed a torrent of cons and scam opportunities. This includes from people at times even claiming to be the IRS.

  A summary of the new poll results are as follows, according to Newsmax: 

  • 65% of adults polled say they receive at least one robocall per day.
  • 91% of respondents say robocalls are becoming more common.
  • 20% of adults surveyed say they have received a robocall or text about coronavirus.
  • 23% of people polled say they have seen an increase in robocalls since the COVID-19 outbreak. 

  Here’s a classic line from one report on the poll’s findings:

  More than a third of respondents said they’ve lost their temper and swore or yelled at a robocaller.

  In prior decades such literal cold calling was once the domain of sophisticated telemarketers who at least perhaps had a local product or something remotely useful to sell. 

  But now it’s a domain wholly taken over by cyber fraud, international telemarketing, and an apparently growing phenomenon of random unknown services that seem to ‘dial’ numbers with no reason, bizarrely enough, often to the great frustration of people trying to catch an occasional afternoon nap. 

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  Above: Provision Living data on most common types of robocalls, based on respondents.

  Robocalling scams in general have been on the rise even unrelated to the pandemic, increasingly bombarding random households ranging from fake IRS and social security claims, to sham debt collectors, to the ever-pervasive “car extended warranty” and “Google add listing” people (no, they are actually almost never with Google, the company assures).

  

• New Zealand Gun-Crime Rates Soar Following Gun-Bans
  New Zealand Gun-Crime Rates Soar Following Gun-Bans
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 05/19/2020 – 21:25

  Authored by Tom Knighton via BearingArms.com,

  American gun control activists looked at New Zealand’s response to the Christchurch massacre with a high degree of awe. They desperately want the United States to follow that lead after the next mass shooting. They would love for our government to swoop in after such an event and snatch away all our guns, but particularly those nasty so-called “assault weapons” that they don’t think we have any business owning.

  They applauded Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern for her quick response, but what really happened was more of a knee-jerk reaction. She responded with liberal reflexes rather than taking the time to look at the situation rationally, and she’s been applauded by gun grabbers for it.

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  However, one thing we on the pro-gun side said would happen in response seems to have come to pass.

  New figures obtained by RNZ show last year had the highest rates of gun crime and deaths involving firearms for nearly 10 years.

  But despite that rise, there has not been a corresponding increase in officers taking out or using their guns.

  The figures, obtained from police under the Official Information Act, show the rates of gun crime went up in both 2018 and 2019.

  Last year, there were 3540 occasions where an offender was found with a gun.

  And in both of the last two years, the rate of deadly incidents involving a firearm was the highest it had been since 2009.

  The number of guns seized by police is also on the rise, up almost 50 percent on five years earlier at 1263 last year.

  You mean banning guns doesn’t actually reduce gun crime?

  I’m shocked.

  I’m completely and totally shocked.

  No, really.

  What’s shocking, though, isn’t that this happened. It’s that this happened yet again and anti-gunners are still able to delude themselves into believing that gun control reduces gun crime. It doesn’t. While some of our gun controlled states have low crime, it has a low crime in spite of those laws, not because of them.

  It seems like a universal truth that in the immediate aftermath of enacting tough gun control laws, gun crime goes up. That doesn’t make a lot of sense unless you realize that the very people not complying with the law include a large number of criminals who aren’t going to comply with any law. Now, though, they know that their potential targets are less likely to be able to defend themselves. For them, it’s time to step up and get busy because no one can stop them.

  Note how the police aren’t using their guns any more than normal? That’s not surprising. After all, the police show up just in time to draw a chalk outline around the body. They don’t prevent crimes so much as respond to them and the criminals know this. They do what they’re going to do and leave before the police show up.

  In fact, expect to see still more increases in so-called “gun crime” in New Zealand, at least until some degree of sanity returns and the government there goes back to respecting the right of the people to keep and bear arms. It’s only too bad that we’re pretty much the only nation with that right preserved in our Constitution. New Zealanders could probably use that right about now.

  

• German Economist Warns Italy Faces Eurozone Exit As Coronavirus Crisis Deepens
  German Economist Warns Italy Faces Eurozone Exit As Coronavirus Crisis Deepens
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 05/19/2020 – 21:23

  Italy, whose already week economy has been crippled by the coronavirus pandemic, should seek help from its own wealthy citizens, rather than relying on Germany and other EU countries, to bail it out as it struggles to bounce back from the coronavirus pandemic, former German MEP and economist, Hans-Olaf Henkel, has warned.

  According to The Express, the German suggested that the best solution would be for Italy to leave the eurozone and go back to their own currency, which he dubbed the “new lira”. Henkel was speaking against the backdrop of widening splits between the north and the south of the bloc, and particularly Germany and Italy, on how best to mitigate the economic and societal impacts of the virus.

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  He wasn’t alone: at a time when the European periphery has been hoping to get loans, or better yet, grants from Europe, Manfred Weber, leader of the European People’s Party in the European Parliament, became the latest figure to speak out, calling for “strict controls” to prevent Italy and Spain embarking on massive public spending sprees using EU cash.

  Henkel was also responding to comments by liberal billionaire and europhile George Soros, who last week suggested the EU had a duty to help Italy, which has been hit harder by the disease than anywhere else in the bloc, by spreading the cost of rebuilding the country’s economy among members of the eurozone. The former MEP explained: “I share Soros’ views on Italy but do not believe that there is any justification to show ‘financial solidarity with Italy because of the corona crisis’.

  “What have Germans to do with the decisions taken by Italian politicians on their health system or the (very late) decisions on the lockdown in Lombardy”

  He also noted that “on average the per capita wealth of Italians is way above the wealth of for instance Germans” and added that “before Italian politicians like Salvini or Conte or anybody claims money from citizens of other countries to mitigate the financial results of their decisions they should ask their own wealthy people to show solidarity with their own people.”

  “Rather than letting Italian politicians borrow money from and at the risk of other countries, Germany should make a generous gift in exchange for Italy leaving the eurozone and go back to their own currency (New Lira)! This way Italy’s Central Bank could devalue their currency to become competitive again, get the economy back on its (own) feet and prosper like Italy did before the euro” Henkel said.

  The German economist, who stressed his respect for a “globalized, liberal and democratic world”, added: “I know Soros from a meeting some years ago when we discussed the first euro crisis.”

  “At that time I advocated the euro to be split into a ‘Northern Euro’ and a ‘Euro for the South’, in each case the currency to reflect the different economic realities prevailing in, for example, Greece, Italy and France on one hand and, for instance, in Austria, The Netherlands and Germany on the other.”

  Addressing a proposed solution, namely “perpetual bonds”, or loans which would never have to be repaid, he added: “Soros’ idea of eternal European loans may work on a national basis like they did in the UK and in the US in World War 1, but they would not work on a European level.

  “Not only would we be confronted with the same moral hazard such as in the case of euro- or coronabonds, they would also be limited to the eurozone hence create a new border within Europe.”

  “On one side are those with solidarity for Italy like Germany. On the other are those without like Denmark or Sweden or Poland, none of them being in the eurozone.”

  And that’s why Europe is doomed – the same reason European nations and people have been doomed to waging war with each other for millennia – because when one strips away the profit motive and the distraction that is the pursuit of wealth, everyone hates everyone, and once the money runs out and the shared prosperity ends and is replaced by the shared pain of bailing out one’s neighbor, at that point it’s just a matter of time before the time of death is declared.

  

• The Higher Stocks Rise, The More Fragile The Market Becomes: BofA
  The Higher Stocks Rise, The More Fragile The Market Becomes: BofA
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 05/19/2020 – 21:05

  In the past two months, BofA equity derivatives group led by Benjamin Bowler, has been far more bearish than either the “House” view, which is for general consumption and is more or less constitutionally mandated to always be cautiously optimistic, or BofA CIO Michael Hartnett who in recent weeks has been expecting a continued melt up reflecting both the pain trade (higher) and the flood of new central bank liquidity.

  We covered two recent examples of Bowler’s persistent pessimism recently, first in “Fade The Rip”: BofA Warns “Bear Market Far From Over Unless We Escape A Recession” and again in Here Is The One Indicator That Convinced BofA Another Market Crash Is Coming, and yet despite his reasoned arguments, the market has continued to trend sideways, failing to break out materially, but also refusing to slide below 2,800.

  Which brings us to today’s, latest take from BofA’s global equity volatility insights note, in which an increasingly exasperated Bowler writes that “while history suggests markets won’t escape economic reality, they have become skilled at suspending disbelief post GFC” and yet “ignoring reality comes at the risk of fragility, as investors lacking conviction are quick to exit when the trend turns.“

  He is, of course, right. It was his team, after all, that made the sacrilegious at the time (in Dec 2017) observation that “In Every Market Shock Since 2013 Central Banks Have Stepped In To Protect Markets.”

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  It’s not just him, however: by now every investors, especially Wall Street professionals, realize that stocks are where they are only thanks to central banks, so left to their own devices a crash is inevitable. It’s also why before the QE nuke launched by the Fed in late March, the S&P was set to plunge below 2,000. The flipside is that the higher the market goes, the more prone it is to flash crashes and “breaking” as investor confidence that central banks will prop up stocks at or near all time highs, especially with lack of fundamental support, fades away.

  That’s why, picking up on one of his favorite topics, Bowler and team writes that “in recent years markets have become increasingly fragile, recording a 4-fold increase in the frequency of tantrums and flash-crashes post-GFC vs the 80 years prior.”

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  According to Bowler there have been two key drivers of higher fragility in our view:

  1. failing trading liquidity due to high frequency traders shutting down machines as stress rises, something this website has correctly covered since the start in 2009, warning that HFTs would eventually resulted in an extremely illiquid, unstable and, yes, fragile market as far back as April 2009, and
  2. asset bubbles created by an investor base starved of alpha and forced to chase trends against their better judgement in a world addicted to the central bank put.

  Caught in a vice of HFTs momentum chasing algos on one hand, and central banks dictating overall market direction simply by injecting trillions in liquidity, the BofA strategist notes that “closing your eyes and chasing the trend was impossible to avoid for most, but this also turned into a massive log-jam for liquidity when the tide turned, as investors with little fundamental conviction simultaneously rushed for a fast-narrowing exit door.”

  Which brings us to today: with most institutional investors believing this is a bear-rally, something the latest BofA Fund Manager Survey confirmed earlier today…

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  … but at-risk of being forced to chase the trend if it continues (having been conditioned as such in the last 10 years), the risk is of bigger bubbles leading to larger shocks, leading to even bigger bubbles, leading to even larger shocks, and so on. In a dismal assessment of how far the rally has already gone without any fundamental justification, Bowler writes that “there will be plenty of opportunity (and time) for negative surprises to arise, given the sheer size of this economic crisis, even with a vaccine on fast-track.“

  We most certainly agree, as does more than two-thirds of Wall Street, which is why it is hardly a secret that the higher the S&P rises, the more prone it will be to sudden, “unexplained” crashes.

  And while it would be difficult to see a strong convexity event at these levels of vol, it would likely result in a larger upside surprise to volatility than in past bear-rallies, as for example both the VIX and V2X have fallen at near their fastest pace recorded.

  “But the FAAMGs will keep the market elevated”, all the bulls will scream in unison, to which Bowler has a simple answer:

  With many believing that the seemingly ‘defensive’ Tech can continue to hold up the S&P 500, here we highlight where the index could fall if the second leg of the covid-19 selloff unfolds even with the FAAMG not receding from here (as a reminder, they make up 21% of the S&P 500).

  Chart 14 shows that holding FAAMG at their current levels, a retest of March lows from the remainder of names in the S&P would bring the S&P down to 2390, only less than 7% above its 23-Mar lows (in comparison, the S&P closed 32% above its March lows as of 15-May). If any of the FAAMG names capitulates in an extreme scenario where most of the stocks snap back to their lows, the S&P could trade even lower.

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  Indeed, while these big tech names and some bio/pharma names (Healthcare accounts for 15% of the S&P 500) may do particularly well in the Covid-19 economy, some investors may be overestimating the extent to which big-cap tech can prevent the entire market from falling simply due to its large weight. Furthermore, we still believe that markets may be underestimating the cyclicality of large tech as a whole when faced with the reality of the ensuing recession.

  In conclusion, Bowler – who now appears to have a vendetta with the central banks, the HFTs and Robin Hood retail traders who just keep buying this market even as he doubles, triples and quadruples down on his bearish stance – warns that “history suggests markets won’t escape economic reality, and that this bear market will be similar in length to that of the ensuing recession, but there is a risk is of wider overshoots, which reconcile more violently in a world still prone to fragility.”

  

• "Cyclone In The Time Of COVID-19" – India Prepares For Perfect Storm Of Chaos
  “Cyclone In The Time Of COVID-19” – India Prepares For Perfect Storm Of Chaos
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 05/19/2020 – 20:45

  Though downgraded to Category 3 from its previous Category 5 strength, Tropical Cyclone Amphan is expected to make landfall near India and Bangladesh border on Wednesday as a major storm, with catastrophic storm surge, high winds, and torrential rains. This super cyclonic storm is happening at the same time India’s COVID-19 infections crossed the 100,000 mark and are increasing at the fastest pace in Asia. 

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  The India Meteorological Department (IMD) released a statement on Tuesday that said the “very intense cyclone” is churning over the Bay of Bengal and headed for coastal regions bordering Bangladesh and India. A storm surge of 13 to 16 feet could be seen in some areas, especially around mangrove forests of the Sundarbans in far eastern India and Bangladesh. 

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  Amphan has diminished intensity over the last day but remains one of the strongest cyclones to traverse the Bay of Bengal in decades. 

  IMD warned: “This cyclone has extensive damaging potential. It will cause extensive large scale damage. (i) Damage expected over West Bengal (East Medinipur, south & north 24 Parganas, Howrah, Hoogli, Kolkata districts) and action suggested.” 

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  Weather firm Joint Cyclone Center says the storm is still packing 115 mph winds. “Center of #Amphan getting closer to the #WestBengal associated with thunderstorms, gusty winds, flash flooding and rainbands spreading into #Bangladesh and #Burma overnight…” 

  IMD has issued an alert for Wednesday of damaging winds and flooding rainfall from Amphan in eastern India and Bangladesh. Most torrential rainfall and strong winds will be centered around West Bengal, which includes Kolkata.

  “We are facing a dual challenge of ‘cyclone in the time of COVID-19,’ ” Satya Narayan Pradhan, chief of India’s National Disaster Response Force, stated at a press briefing Tuesday. “We are taking action according to the enormity of this challenge.”

  Needs Assessment Working Group (NAWG) Bangladesh estimates that up to “14.2 million people in coastal districts are likely to be affected, with nearly 1.4 million displaced and up to 600,000 houses damaged. Evacuation from high-risk areas is to begin today and is already underway in high-risk areas in India.” 

  The life-threatening cyclone is arriving at a bad time for both countries as COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths surge. India has reported more than 100,000 confirmed cases, while Bangladesh has said about 25,000, as of Tuesday, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. 

  India has seen a 28% increase in cases since last week  

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  The challenge to flatten the curve after the cyclone has passed could result in further spreading of the virus in the weeks ahead. The storm is expected to displace hundreds of thousands of folks. All of this suggests officials in both countries will be dealing with two disasters at once.

  

• Chicago Chicken Shop Charges 26% "COVID-19 Fee", Claiming Rapid Food Inflation
  Chicago Chicken Shop Charges 26% “COVID-19 Fee”, Claiming Rapid Food Inflation
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 05/19/2020 – 20:25

  Harold’s Chicken on Broadway in Chicago unleashed a wave of public backlash on social media last weekend after it slapped customers with a COVID-19 surcharge of 26%. 

  Restaurant manager Jacquelyn Santana told CBS Chicago that food suppliers raised wholesale chicken prices by 26% on Saturday “due to the COVID pandemic.” She said a case of chicken wings that generally cost $60, jumped overnight to $90, forcing the wing shop to pass on the costs.

  “We’re trying to keep other employees employed, including myself. We are just opening up so we really need to be able to makes ends meet,” Santana said.

  She said the surcharge was dropped on Sunday after people bashed her store on social media for raising prices.

  “We’re actually trying to figure out how else we can make up for those losses that we’ve had so far,” said Santana.

  She said workers have already seen their hours reduced to keep the lights on during the quarantine. It appears cost-cutting measures are limited for the store manager at this time. 

  A receipt from Harold’s shows a “Chicago City Tax 10.25%” and “Covid 19 26%” tax — add that all up, and one customer was taxed 36.25% for a box of wings. People on Facebook were furious, and they said: “shame on you!!!!,” “Unbelievable,” and “crooks.” 

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  In Santana’s defense, she needs to familiarize herself with the evolving situation at meat processing plants that have resulted in soaring food inflation to justify better why she passed the costs.

  For example, spot beef prices quoted via USDA show an exponential rise during the pandemic.

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  The public must also be informed about the crisis is processing and how some restaurants or corner shops might not be able to eat the costs. To jog everyone’s memory, more than a dozen top meat processing plants closed in the last several months due to workers contracting the virus, and other plants significantly reduced output as labor shortages developed.

  US poultry production slumps as processors are hit with labor shortages. 

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  Read: American Farms Cull Millions Of Chickens Amid Virus-Related Staff Shortages At Processing Plants

  A plunging in processing sparked soaring meat prices, with restaurants already battered by lockdowns, it seems, in at least one case, a jump in wholesale prices cannot be absorbed but instead passed along to consumers

  

• "End Of An Era": US Oil Rig Count & Saudi Weapons Spending Plunge To Record Lows
  “End Of An Era”: US Oil Rig Count & Saudi Weapons Spending Plunge To Record Lows
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 05/19/2020 – 20:05

  Via Southfront.org,

  The reduction in global fuel demand has led to the fact that the number of oil rigs in the US has dropped to a historic low, Reuters reported, citing data from Baker Hughes. According to data on the week ending on May 17^th, the number of rigs decreased by 35, to 339.

  This is the lowest figure since 1940, when Baker Hughes began to publish relevant statistics. The reduction in the number of towers affected West Texas and the eastern part of the state of New Mexico, where the main oil and gas production in the USA is conducted. There, their number decreased to 175, which is the lowest number since 2016.

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  Since the beginning of the year, the number of operating rigs in the United States has declined by 52%. More than 400 installations stopped working.

  The suspension of activity began in mid-March, when oil prices fell sharply after disruption of the OPEC + deal.

  Analysts suggest that this process will continue in the near future. Simmons Energy suggests that 215 drilling rigs will remain in the country next year and their recovery will be very slow. For comparison: in 2019, 943 units worked in the USA.

  It is expected that global consumption will drop from a record 100 million barrels per day up to 92.6 million barrels. On May 18^th, the cost of a barrel of North Sea Brent was $34.51, Texas WTI – $32.13.

  At the same time, this drop in crude oil prices, Saudi Arabia may be forced to reduce how much money it spends on weapons. This is significant since, Riyadh’s weapon purchases are a way to increase its influence around the world.

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  According to experts, Saudi Arabia may have to abandon new arms contracts and postpone already agreed arms purchases, as the kingdom is plunging into a financial crisis.

  The expected delay in the conclusion of new arms deals can have long-term political consequences for a country under the rule of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who is waging a war against the Houthis in Yemen, and is losing, even with full investment.

  “I have no doubt: this is the end of an era. The era when the Persian Gulf had all this money is over,” said Bruce Ridel, a CIA veteran and senior researcher at the Brookings Institution.

  Last year, Riyadh spent about $62 billion on weapons, ranking fifth in the world in military spending.

  Although this figure was lower than in 2018, it still amounted to about 8% of Saudi Arabia’s GDP. Thus, the country spent on weapons an impressive share of its wealth – more than the United States (3.4%), China (1.9%), Russia (3.9%) or India (2.4%), based on Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) data.

  Saudi Arabia seems to be the best country at wasting its time and resources on failed endeavors, and then at denial about consequences:

  “The world’s fifth largest weapons buyer is eating up its reserves – and its political clout” https://t.co/Ua7V7LMCKi

  — Hassan Hassan (@hxhassan) May 18, 2020

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  For decades, military spending has strengthened Riyadh’s political influence in the world:

  “If Saudi Arabia were not one of the largest buyers of weapons, then probably it would be impossible to count on support devoid of criticism from the powerful Western powers. One of the outcomes of arms purchases is that you buy relationships,” said Andrew Feinstein, an expert on corruption and the global arms trade.

  This economic crisis Saudi Arabia is in is characterized by three blows that it suffered:

  1. The first of them was inflicted by an unprecedented drop in oil demand on world markets, which, in turn, led to a drop in commodity prices and a reduction in the country’s income from oil.
  2. The second blow is those extraordinary measures that the state should have taken to combat the epidemic of coronavirus and which actually led to the complete cessation of trade and economic activity within the country, which ultimately led to the actual cessation of “non-oil” exports and, again, the cessation of economic growth.
  3. The third blow to the economy of Saudi Arabia is the unplanned expenses of the country, associated again with the epidemic of coronavirus, and those measures that were supposed to strengthen public confidence in the health sector.

  Essentially, it would appear that the Saudi-initiated crude oil price war backfired heavily, and the two parties suffering the most from the rapid drop in prices and the on-going crisis are Washington and Riyadh.

  

• "They Don't Want To Come Back To Work" – Restaurant Blames CARES Act For Labor Shortage
  “They Don’t Want To Come Back To Work” – Restaurant Blames CARES Act For Labor Shortage
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 05/19/2020 – 19:45

  One of the great tragedies in America today is that of the CARES Act, which included a $1,200 stimulus check and an additional $600 weekly payment for the unemployed, has given millions of Americans their first real taste of socialism, that is the sweet taste of the forbidden fruit of free of money.

  The Trump administration has unleashed helicopter money directed at households that will have severe consequences. Not too long ago, we noted how government intervention, cushioning households from an economic depression, will prolong the recovery in the labor market as people get paid more to sit at home than work and be productive in society:

  “So don’t expect the unemployment rate to bounce back very much once this pandemic begins to subside.  Congress has decided to make it very financially rewarding not to work, and millions upon millions of Americans are going to be more than happy to take advantage of that opportunity for as long as it lasts.” 

  As Arizona’s economy reopens, one restaurant owner has blamed the CARES Act for labor shortages, even though she says the national unemployment rate is very high. 

  “With an unemployment rate at almost 20%, you’d think we’d have a lot of applicants coming in, but we’re not,” said Times Square Italian Restaurant owner Paullette Cano, who recently spoke with AZFamily.

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  Cano said the CARES Act and unemployment checks have resulted in many of her furloughed employees staying home. They collectively told her their pay from the government is much better than working at her restaurant. 

  “They don’t want to come back to work,” said Cano. “It’s the unemployment. They’re receiving about $840 a week, which puts them about $22 an hour.”

  At the moment, there are 30 job openings at the restaurant with dozens of furloughed employees sitting at home collecting welfare. She said rehiring is challenging because people are demanding +$20 per hour, or around the hourly rate, they’re receiving from unemployment and federal dollars.

  “They’re asking for $20 an hour, which makes it difficult because we operate under slim margins,” said Cano.

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  If Cano develops a labor shortage with an influx of demand at her restaurant due to reopening, she might have to resort to expensive labor that would result in fewer hirings. 

  It’s not just in Arizona, workers in many other states can make more money staying at home than being employed. 

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  We recently penned “When Work Is Punished: Did The ‘Generous’ CARES Act Just Guarantee High Unemployment Is Here To Stay?“ — where it was noted the CARES Act has the potential to create an entirely new generation of welfare serfs, subsisting on significant welfare benefits with no incentive to ‘get back to work’, even after the lockdowns are lifted. This will lead to a labor market that won’t recover anytime soon, thwarting any hopes of a V-shaped recovery this year. 

  The virus, to its credit, has triggered a dangerous policy response by the government of helicopter money that will effectively delay the recovery. Recently, Powell on CBS’s 60 Minutes thinks a recovery could be seen in late 2021 — what’s to say the recovery might not be seen until 2022-2024? 

  

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• Many Volkswagen EVs Are Already Sold Out For The Second Half Of 2020
  Many Volkswagen EVs Are Already Sold Out For The Second Half Of 2020
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 05/19/2020 – 02:45

  While the auto market has been falling apart, Volkswagen has been crushing it in the EV market.

  The automaker’s CEO said on a podcast on Monday morning that many of its EVs are already “sold out far into the second half of the year,” according to Bloomberg. 

  The company’s market share for EVs more than doubled to almost 4% and could rise as high as 5% or 6% by the end of 2020 with help from incentives and tax breaks, CEO Herbert Diess said. The company has a longer-term target of EVs accounting for about 40% of deliveries by 2030.

  And the target for VW is clear: the company is “very confident” that it “won’t lose sight of Tesla,” Deiss said.

  He continued, saying that the company’s “ability to boost technology skills and software operations quickly is more important to compete than leveraging industrial scale.”

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  Diess expects “very strong” competition from Chinese firms in the future and reiterated his call for economic stimulus in Germany to help the country steer clear of a prolonged recession. 

  This targeted move, taking aim at Tesla, shouldn’t be a surprise to Zero Hedge readers, as we recently predicted that Volkswagen would become a major player in the EV market, posing a threat to Tesla. 

  Recall, just days ago, we wrote about the Volkswagen ID3, which, with a price point of $33,000 possibly represents the biggest challenge to Tesla’s dominant EV status yet. The vehicle goes on sale in Europe and the UK this summer, despite the coronavirus and offers the same amount of range and storage space as a Tesla Model 3.

  The ID3 is going to offer three different battery choices and two power outputs. It has a claimed range of 260 miles.

  Volkswagen has been taking pre-orders for the car and more than 35,000 people have placed deposits so far, according to Autocar. Those who placed deposits will be able to buy their cars starting June 17 in Europe. The UK will follow in mid-July due to the time it takes to get approval for right hand drive models.

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  Volkswagen sales boss Jürgen Stackmann said at the time deliveries are on track and that the ID3 is the company’s sole focus right now: “The focus of the company now is on ID 3. We’re almost ready, and we just need a few more weeks to get the software to where we need it to be. The entire team are working on this topic, and we want to deliver a great quality product on time – and that time is this summer.”

  Volkswagen is aiming to build 100,000 ID3s this year and prices in the will start from around £27,500 before the government grant for the entry-level 45kWh version.

  The storage capabilities of the ID3 make it a formidable competitor to the Model Y. The ID3 also features two digital dashboard displays and, as Business Insider says “…seems to offer a bit more familiarity” than the Tesla Model 3. 

  It also offers adaptive cruise control and lane assist, similar to Tesla’s autopilot. And again, the price point could be the car’s best selling point. Its $33,000 (USD) tag compares to about $48,000 for the Model 3 and $52,990 for the Model Y. 

  A video comparison of the ID3 and the Model 3 can be seen here: 

  

• United Nations Claims It's Politically-Incorrect To Say "Husband" Or "Wife"
  United Nations Claims It’s Politically-Incorrect To Say “Husband” Or “Wife”
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 05/19/2020 – 02:00

  Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

  The United Nations has put out a tweet asserting that people shouldn’t use politically incorrect terms like “boyfriend,” “girlfriend,” “husband” and “wife” in order to “help create a more equal world.”

   

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>“What you say matters. Help create a more equal world by using gender-neutral language if you’re unsure about someone’s gender or are referring to a group,” states the tweet.

  It then lists a number of terms alongside their politically correct alternative.

  These include mankind, chairman, congressman, policeman, landlord, boyfriend/girlfriend, manpower, maiden name, fireman and husband/wife.

  What you say matters.

  Help create a more equal world by using gender-neutral language if you’re unsure about someone’s gender or are referring to a group. https://t.co/QQRFPY4VRn #GenerationEquality via@UN_Women pic.twitter.com/koxoAZZuxq

  — United Nations (@UN) May 18, 2020

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  A faceless globalist bureaucracy telling people what sounds are allowed to come out of their mouths surprisingly didn’t go down too well.

  “Stop trying to control people’s language. It’s creepy and unnecessary,” said Lucy Harris.

  Stop trying to control people’s language. It’s creepy and unnecessary.

  — Lucy Harris (@Lugey6) May 18, 2020

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  “Are we allowed to say son or daughter or will my spouse and I get a visit from a police officer?” asked another.

  Are we allowed to say son or daughter or will my spouse and I get a visit from a police officer?

  — Wes Butler 🐝 (@WButler77) May 18, 2020

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  “Are we still allowed to say manhole cover?” joked another.

  *  *  *

  My voice is being silenced by free speech-hating Silicon Valley behemoths who want me disappeared forever. It is CRUCIAL that you support me. Please sign up for the free newsletter here. Donate to me on SubscribeStar here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown.

  

• The Coming Nuclear Menace: Hypersonic Missiles
  The Coming Nuclear Menace: Hypersonic Missiles
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 05/19/2020 – 00:05

  Authored by Karl Grossman via Counterpunch.org,

  The United States is seeking to acquire “volumes of hundreds or even thousands” of nuclear-capable hypersonic missiles that are “stealthy” and can fly undetected at 3,600 miles per hour, five times faster than the speed of sound.

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  Why so many?

  A Pentagon official is quoted in the current issue of Aviation Week & Space Technology as saying “we have to be careful we’re not building boutique weapons. If we build boutique weapons, we won’t—we’ll be very reluctant to—use them.”

  The article in the aerospace industry trade journal is headlined: “Hypersonic Mass Production.” A subhead reads: “Pentagon Forms Hypersonic Industry ‘War Room.’”

  On March 19, 2020, the U.S. conducted its first hypersonic missile test from its Pacific Missile Range Facility on Kauai, Hawaii.

  “Fast and Furiously Accurate” is the title of an article about hypersonic missiles written by a U.S. Navy officer which appeared last year on a U.S. Naval Institute website.

  The piece declares that by “specifically integrating hypersonic weapons with U.S. Navy submarines, the United States may gain an edge in developing the fastest, most precise weapons the world has ever seen.”

  “Hypersonic weapons,” explains the article by U.S. Navy Lieutenant Andrea Howard, “travel faster than Mach 5—at least five times the speed of sound, around 3,600 mph, or one mile per second….They are similar to but faster than existing missiles, such as the subsonic U.S. Tomahawk missile, which maxes out around 550 mph.”

  “While hypersonic weapons can carry conventional or nuclear warheads, they differ from existing technologies in three critical ways,” writes Howard. “First…a one-kilogram object delivered precisely and traveling multiples of the speed of sound can be more destructive than one kilogram of TNT. Second, the low-altitude path helps mask HCMs [Hypersonic Cruise Missiles] when coupled with the curvature of the Earth” and so “they are mostly invisible to early warning radars. And third…they can maneuver during flight; in contrast with the predictable ballistic-missile descend, they are more difficult to intercept, if even detected.”

  “By offering the precision of near-zero-miss weapons, the speed of ballistic missiles, and the maneuverability of cruise missiles, hypersonic weapons are a disruptive technology capable of striking anywhere on the globe in less than an hour,” declares the Navy officer.

  The article also notes that Russian “President Vladimir Putin unveiled six new” what he called “invincible” hypersonic missiles as part of a March 2018 “state of the nation” speech. “Russia has successfully tested the air-to-ground hypersonic missile” named Kinzhal for dagger, “multiple times using the MIG-31 fighter.” It’s “mounting the Kinzhal on its Tu-22M3 strategic bomber.” The article also says “China, too, is working on hypersonic technologies.”

  The piece concludes:

  “As the tradition of arms control weakens with the breakdown of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) agreement, it would be naïve to anticipate anything other than full-fledged weapon development by Russia and China in the coming decades….The bottom line is that hypersonic weapons will determine who precisely is ‘prompt’ enough in 21st century conflict.”

  The U.S. under President Trump withdrew last year from the INF treaty, a landmark agreement which had banned all land-based ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges of from 310 to 3,420 miles. It had been signed in 1987 by President Reagan and Soviet General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev. The treaty “marked the first time the superpowers had agreed to reduce their nuclear arsenals, eliminate an entire category of nuclear weapons, and employ extensive on-site inspections for verification,” notes the Arms Control Association.

  “Hypersonic missiles may be unstoppable. Is society ready?” was the headline of an article in March in The Christian Science Monitor. This piece notes: “Hypersonic missiles are not just very fast, they are maneuverable and stealthy. This combination of speed and furtiveness means they can surprise an adversary in ways that conventional missiles cannot, while also evading radar detection. And they have injected an additional level of risk and ambiguity into what was already an accelerating arms race between nuclear-armed rivals.”

  The article raises the issue of the speed of hypersonic missiles miring military decisions. “For an incoming conventional missile, military commanders may have 30 minutes to detect and respond; a hypersonic missile could arrive at that same destination in 10 minutes.” Thus “artificial intelligence” or “AI” would be utilized.

  The Christian Science Monitor article quotes Patrick Lin, a professor of philosophy at California Polytechnic State University in San Luis Obispo, as noting:

  “Technology will always fail. That is the nature of technology.”

  And, says the article: “Dr. Lin argues that the benefits of hypersonic weapons compared to the risk they create are ‘widely unclear,’ as well as the benefits of the AI systems that inform them.”

  It quotes Dr. Lin as saying, wisely:

  “I think it’s important to remember that diplomacy works and policy solutions work…I think another tool in our toolbox isn’t just to invest in more weapons, but it’s also to invest in diplomacy to develop community.”

  The Aviation Week & Space Technology article begins: “As the U.S. hypersonic weapons strategy tilts toward valuing a quantity approach, the new focus for top defense planners—even as a four-year battery of flight testing begins—is to create an industrial base that can produce missiles affordably enough that the high-speed weapons can be purchased in volumes of hundreds or even thousands.”

  It continues: “To pave the way for an affordable production strategy, the Pentagon’s Research and Engineering division has teamed up with the Acquisition and Sustainment branch to create a ‘war room’ for the hypersonic industrial base, says Mark Lewis, director of research and engineering the modernization.”

  The piece then quotes Lewis as saying:

  “At the end of the day, we have to be careful we’re not building boutique weapons. If we build boutique weapons, we won’t—we’ll be very reluctant to—use them. And that again factors into our plans for delivering hypersonics at scale.”

  The article says that “Air Force and defense officials have been promoting concepts for operating air-launched hypersonic missiles in swarm attacks. The B-1B [bomber], for example, will be modified to carry” six hypersonic missiles.

  “I think it’s a poorly posed question to ask about affordability per unit,” the piece quoted Lewis as saying.

  “We have to think of it in terms of the affordability of the capability that we’re providing. By that I mean: If I’ve got a hypersonic system that costs twice as much as its subsonic counterpart but is five times more effective, well, clearly, that’s an advantageous cost scenario.”

  The hypersonic missiles will indeed likely be “invincible.” And they would be at the ready because of the withdrawal by the Trump administration of the INF treaty and other international arms control agreements, one after another.

  With the vast numbers of hypersonic nuclear-capable missiles being sought, the world will have fully returned to the madness in the depths the Cold War—as presented in the 1964 film Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb.

  Apocalypse will be highly likely. Artificial intelligence is not going to save us. These weapons need to be outlawed, not produced and purchased en masse. And we must, indeed, “invest in diplomacy to develop community”—a global community at peace, not a world of horrific and unstoppable war.

  

• Watch: 'City Of 400 Foreign Ships' Illegally Fishing Off Argentina Comes To Life Each Night
  Watch: ‘City Of 400 Foreign Ships’ Illegally Fishing Off Argentina Comes To Life Each Night
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 05/18/2020 – 23:45

  The Argentine newspaper Clarín has published footage highlighting a growing problem for the government and the country’s unique surrounding ecology — illegal fishing. 

  Each night multiple hundreds of international fishing vessels descend on an area of ocean not far off Argentina’s coast, often crossing into the country’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and thus illegally, in order to take advantage of waters seemingly endlessly full of squid and other fish.

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  New footage shows what the publication dubs “a city of foreign ships” after reporters boarded a recent Argentine military flight to do surveillance on the illegal fishing below.

  The video shows ships with bright lights piercing the pitch dark ocean surface for as far as the eye can see, as if one is looking down on mysterious planet from space. 

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  They fish often using bottom trawlers, and most are after the abundance of squid in these far southern waters, popular especially in East Asia. 

  Clarín describes that:

  In the 200 miles there is a real city of foreign ships, estimated at between 350 and 400. They come to stay in these remote sectors of the sea for up to two years. They are generally of oriental origin. There are Chinese and Korean ships. But also Russians, Spanish, English and South Africans. They are tangoneros (those that fish only squid) and trawlers (fishing with a net).

  ‘City of foreign ships’ within 200 miles off Argentina’s coast lit up at night:

  “These are factory ships. They freeze and process on board. Then they transfer the product to another that takes them to the ports of their countries or disembarks them in Uruguay,” the report reads.

  And separate coverage, showing the ‘city of ships’ from the water’s surface:

  “They are true floating freezers. And they are preying on the whole area that is a true sanctuary. Because trawlers don’t make any selections,” an environmental activist was quoted in the Spanish language report as saying.

  “In this biological corridor there are orcas, whales, elephants and sea lions and dolphins. They all fall into the nets,” the spokesman added.

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  The vessels are commonly estimated capable of catching up to a whopping 50 tons a night, especially some of the more massive boats measuring at up to 70 meters.

  “The streets are emptied by the coronavirus, but the sea fills with ships, some without a flag to prey on our resources,” a Greenpeace spokesman said ironically.

  Prior satellite photo showing the clusters of foreign vessels look like cities from space:

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  The problem has been ongoing for years, with one publication previously featuring satellite imagery of the fishing boat clusters.

  “These ships emit more light into space than almost all Argentine cities, including urban centers such as Córdoba or Rosario,” the publication said.

  

• Big Tech Is Turning Hospitals Into Real-Time Surveillance Centers
  Big Tech Is Turning Hospitals Into Real-Time Surveillance Centers
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 05/18/2020 – 23:25

  via Mass Private I blog,

  Recent events have come to light about hospital surveillance that should concern everyone.

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  Big Tech is using the pandemic as an excuse to turn hospitals into mirror images of law enforcement’s real-time crime centers.

  When Google announced that they were donating 10,000 Nest cameras to hospitals, my jaw dropped.

  “With these Nest Cams, nurses and doctors will be able to check in on patients, supplementing in-person checks. This means there will be a reduction of physical contact, and therefore less of a need for personal protection equipment (PPE), which has fast become a scare resource.”

  What makes Google’s donation so jaw dropping is how Big Tech companies are using the pandemic to make them appear magnanimous.

  “With both contact tracing and the Nest Cam solution, however, Google needs to rebuild a reputation as a privacy concerned company due to the sensitive nature of both projects. It’s not going to be an easy task, but one that should remain at the forefront of all such efforts.”

  Because nothing says reputation builder, like putting real-time surveillance cameras in patients rooms. Not only will hospitals record patients but they will record, nurses, doctors, hospital staff and anyone else who enters a patients’ room. That also includes minors, so no one will be safe from Big Brother’s prying eyes.

  As The Guardian discovered, it also sends that information to Google servers.

  “However, Nest admits that when connected to Google’s “Works with Nest integration” system, which allows other devices such as ceiling fans, washing machines and car sensors to integrate with Nest’s products, it does share personal information with Google.”

  Why would Google donate 10,000 Nest cameras to 6,146 hospitals? Because they are hoping that the staff and patients will grow accustomed to being surveilled 24/7, and they hope hospitals will eventually purchase a Nest Aware subscription.

  Nest cameras also record audio, making them the perfect hospital surveillance tool for law enforcement. Although a Google search of ‘total hospital police departments in the U.S.’ turned up nothing, we know that there are more than 6,000 hospitals and there are more than 17,000 law enforcement agencies in the U.S.

  So if we were to make a conservative guess and say that at least half of America’s hospitals have police departments, that puts the number at roughly 3,075.  Does anyone really think that 3,075 hospital police departments will return Google’s Nest cameras after the pandemic?

  A recent Wall Street Journal article warned that hospitals are also using thermal imaging to scan everyone entering hospitals.

  It is reprehensible to see how the mass media portrays Big tech in such a positive light as they slowly turn our hospitals into real-time surveillance centers.

  A recent news release by Care.ai revealed that the largest hospital association in the country, the Texas Hospital Association (THA) is using Artificial Intelligence (AI) to monitor patients in real-time.

  “Through this new partnership with care.ai, Texas hospitals will have the opportunity to experience the use of AI in a hands-on local lab environment. They will get to see in real time the value that autonomous monitoring can bring to their facilities. We’re proud to connect our members to cutting-edge technologies that have a transformative impact on healthcare delivery in Texas,” Fernando Martinez, Ph.D., president and CEO of the Texas Hospital Association Foundation said.

  As THA’s “history” page notes, they are easily the largest health care association in the country.

  “Today, THA is one of the largest, most respected health care associations in the country, and the only association that represents the entire Texas hospital industry. The Texas Hospital Association serves as the political and educational advocate for more than 430 hospitals and health systems statewide.”

  If the “most respected health care association in the country” thinks it is OK to use AI to monitor patients in real-time then America’s hospitals have truly become real-time surveillance centers.

  Care ai’s business model is not built on helping patients recover from the coronavirus: it is built on monitoring patients in real-time.

  “Continuous monitoring that can locate and identify individuals and their behaviors in real time, minimizing risks before they happen.”

  According to Care ai they are continuously monitoring everyone in every Texas hospital room. Care ai calls it a “the self aware room”, I call it the real-time surveillance room.

  Care ai has taken smart devices and perverted them into three real-time surveillance devices.

  The AMS-M1, AMS-M2 and AMS-M2R smart devices are packed with cameras and deep learning sensors.

  Question, if Google is donating 10,000 Nest Cameras and Care ai is using multiple smart devices equipped with cameras at what point do we ask, how many surveillance devices are too many?

  There is no word if Google plans to “donate” Nest Hub Max’s to hospitals but if they do, they would turn America’s hospitals into real-time facial recognition centers.

  Do we really want to live in a future where hospitals mirror police department real-time crime centers?  Once hospitals acquire surveillance technology, mission creep dictates that it will grow and grow until there is no turning back.

  

• Veterans Affairs Police Buy Riot Gear, Citing COVID-19 Pandemic 
  Veterans Affairs Police Buy Riot Gear, Citing COVID-19 Pandemic 
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 05/18/2020 – 23:05

  The federal government is ramping up new purchases of riot gear, citing the virus pandemic, comes at a time when the economy has plunged into recession, and high unemployment has led to increased anxieties across the country. 

  The Intercept says a recent order made by the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) shows “disposable cuffs, gas masks, ballistic helmets, and riot gloves, along with law enforcement protective equipment” were bought for federal police assigned to guard VA facilities. The order was quickly fulfilled under a special authorization “in response to the Covid-19 outbreak.” 

  The VA department operates 1,243 health care facilities, including 170 VA Medical Centers and 1,063 outpatient sites of care in the US, which serves millions of veterans. 

  Redcon Solutions Group is the supplier of the latest contract. The Intercept says the firm received $1.6 in contracts to supply equipment for “Covid-19 screening security guard services.” Other security firms have been awarded similar contracts, providing defensive equipment for federal police who guard VA buildings in San Francisco, Des Moines, and Fayetteville. 

  The purchase order can be explained by the latest Inspector General (IG) report that said a shortage of VA workers and VA police created additional strain on the agency during lockdowns. The IG report said some VA facilities became the site of “COVID-19-related screenings,” which meant the VA needed to beef up security. 

  The Intercept notes federal police at VA facilities were not armed until after 2011, which was around the time the Pentagon started militarizing police forces across the country. 

  “Between 2005 and 2014, VA police departments acquired millions of dollars’ worth of body armor, chemical agents, night vision equipment, and other weapons and tactical gear,” The Intercept said.

  Within the $2.2 trillion CARES Act, there was $850 million for the Coronavirus Emergency Supplemental Funding program, which is a federal grant program that injects new capital into the nation’s police forces. It has been used to cover overtime, increase personal protective equipment, and cover additional expenses related to the virus. 

  The militarization of America’s police forces shown below: 

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  President Trump signed an executive order in 2017 allowing police forces to receive military weapons. More recently, President Trump signed an executive order that allows activating up to one million troops. 

  As to why the VA police would need riot gear is beyond anyone’s guess. However, the rapid militarization of police forces over the last decade shows the federal government could be preparing for social unrest. 

  

• Can Debt Be Inflated Away?
  Can Debt Be Inflated Away?
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 05/18/2020 – 22:45

  By Paul Donovan, Chief Economist at UBS Global Wealth Management

  • Government debt to GDP ratios rarely fall in periods of high inflation. Since the 1970s, debt reduction has almost always taken place with low inflation.

  • Government spending is strongly linked to inflation. This can be formal (as with the US social security budget) or just because the government is a consumer in the market place and must pay the higher price.

  • If bond investors are hit with unexpected, high inflation they are unlikely to be happy. When this has happened in the past, investors have demanded an insurance against future inflation shocks. This risk premium raises the real cost of borrowing for a government, making it difficult to lower debt ratios over time.

  • Financial repression—a form of taxation where savers are forced to hold bonds—can be combined with inflation to reduce debt ratios. However, this hurts companies and threatens growth. Financial repression without inflation is a more effective solution. Governments are likely to use this method in the future.

  Inflation is a complex topic. Entire books can be written about it. One of the myths that exist about inflation is that governments can easily inflate away their debt levels. In the modern world, government debt-to-GDP ratios rarely fall significantly in periods of high inflation. Since the 1970s, successful debt reduction has almost always taken place with low inflation.

  What inflation should we use?

  When talking about debt, it is income inflation not price inflation that matters. Income inflation makes it easier to pay down debt. If a person has a fixed rate mortgage that is three times their income, and their wages rise three times, then it is a lot easier to pay off the mortgage. Their debt to income ratio goes from 300% to 100%. Their income has “inflated” away their debt ratio.

  For governments, the inflation rate that matters is also income inflation. How much a government’s tax revenue is growing tells you how easily they can pay down debt. This is why government debt is normally measured by the debt-to-GDP ratio. Because governments can tax the income of the domestic economy, the growth of the domestic economy is a quick way of measuring how easily debt can be managed.

  The big difference between people and governments is that people are expected to repay their debt at the end of the mortgage. Governments are not. Governments need to borrow again and again. It is that fact that makes it so difficult for governments to inflate away their debt. It creates two problems.

  Problem one – deficits grow with inflation

  Government spending is increasingly tied to inflation. In the 1970s the US began to formally link social security payments to consumer price inflation. Japan’s pension payments have formally been tied to inflation since the 1970s as well. Even if there is not a formal tie, the government is a consumer in the market just like individuals. If prices go up, the consumer pays more. If building costs go up, then governments will pay more to build infrastructure, for example.

  So while a government’s tax revenues will tend to increase with inflation, a significant part of government spending will also increase with inflation. This means that deficits will increase with inflation. Inflation is unlikely to help reduce the amount of money spent each year. This makes it harder to reduce the overall debt level. But the fact that deficits rise with inflation does not stop debt reduction. It just makes it harder. The real damage is done by the second problem—the reaction of bond markets.

  Problem two – bond markets’ punishment offsets inflation’s help

  Inflation itself is not a problem for bond investors. If investors were sure inflation will be 10% a year for ten years, they would happily buy bonds that covered the inflation cost. Bond yields would be 11.5%, guaranteeing a 1.5% real rate of return. But investors cannot be sure inflation will be 10% a year for ten years. Inflation uncertainty is a problem. If you think inflation is going to be 1% and it turns out to be 10% that is very bad news for the investor.

  In reality, inflation cannot be kept absolutely stable. But if there is an expectation that it will not move much, and tend to get back to trend over time, investors are happy. If inflation starts to rise rapidly, that happiness disappears. Investors start demanding some kind of insurance against the unpredictable nature of inflation. Thus, if inflation jumps from 3% to 6% investors will want payment. They will want a real yield (in normal times, perhaps 1.5%). They will want payment for the inflation (6%). They will also want an insurance premium in case inflation does not turn out to be 6%, but comes in at 8% or 10%. That insurance is known as inflation uncertainty risk. It is worth somewhere between 1% and 1.5%.

  In other words, if governments try to inflate their way out of debt, bond markets will demand a price. And because when a bond matures a new bond takes its place, that inflation uncertainty risk will eventually be charged for all the outstanding debt. It is not just new debt that costs government more. Eventually the existing debt will cost more money too.

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  This chart is a simulation of what inflation uncertainty risk will do. This shows that inflation reduces debt ratios a little in the short term. As more and more bonds need to be refinanced, the inflation uncertainty risk raises the cost of borrowing for a larger and larger proportion of the debt. The debt-to-GDP ratio starts to rise, in spite of the inflation.

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  This chart shows the two-year change in government debt plotted against the two-year change in inflation, for each OECD country. The data covers 1970 to 2019, where available. Nearly all the debt reductions take place when inflation is low (below 5% per year). High inflation and debt reduction almost never take place at the same time.

  Repression and inflation

  Governments are likely to try to reduce debt levels after the virus by taxation. There is one particular form of tax that is likely to be popular— financial repression. Financial repression is when investors are forced to hold government bonds, at a lower yield than they would freely accept. Investors have been forced to give up some of the yield that they want to the government. Giving up money to the government is a tax, however much it may be disguised.

  Financial repression has been effective in cutting debt in the past. Financial repression also means that bond markets cannot punish governments for inflation (at least, not as easily). Bond yields are forced lower under financial repression. So why not mix repression and inflation together?

  While this mix would cut debt ratios, it would come at quite a high price. Financial repression normally only applies to government bonds. The inflation uncertainty risk would apply to corporate bonds. Without financial repression to help, the real cost of borrowing for companies would rise, hurting economic growth.

  For a government it makes more sense to tax savers through financial repression, while keeping inflation moderate. Adding inflation does not reduce debt in the long term.

  

• America's First-Ever Jury Trial By Zoom Streamed Live Today
  America’s First-Ever Jury Trial By Zoom Streamed Live Today
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 05/18/2020 – 22:25

  Seemingly everyone knows about videoconferencing software company Zoom. Friends, family, co-workers, grandparents, and neighbors have stayed connected with video chat during the pandemic. Now a Texas court is preparing to conduct a jury trial by Zoom this week. 

  In a first, lawyers in an insurance dispute in Collin County District Court will present their case on Monday via Zoom to court officials, which will be available to watch on YouTube (click here for live stream — video will be streamed at some point on Monday). Jurours will be able to hear a “condensed version of a case and deliver a non-binding verdict,” reported Reuters. 

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  “So we are going to have the jurors report through zoom,” 470th District Court Judge Emily Miskel told NBC DFW last week. “Doing a short trial through zoom. Having them deliberate through zoom and give a verdict.”

  Texas Supreme Court Chief Justice Nathan Hecht recently said, “it’s just too dangerous” to have people in a “courthouse and make them sit together for days at a time.” 

  Judge Miskel said the Zoom trial could serve as a pilot program to see if the future of trials could one day be virtual. 

  “We’re open to creatively thinking about any way to be able to get the jury trials that they need, to allow citizens to participate in their jury service, and to do it through creative remote ways,” she said.

  US courts have limited operations since mid-March when the pandemic lead to soaring virus cases and deaths. Many states locked down economies and enforced stay-at-home orders for citizens to flatten the pandemic curve. Some courts have already experimented with videoconferencing platforms, but the trial on Monday is a first. 

  Monday’s case is a dispute involving commercial property damages during a severe weather event in 2017. The summary jury trial is non-binding, which means lawyers could settle the matter. If there’s no agreement, a full jury trial will be slated an unknown date. 

  As concerns emerge about a second wave of the virus, courts might have to quickly adopt videoconferencing for trials. 

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  If all goes well on Monday, virtual trials could soon become the norm. 

  

• Ron Paul Rages: Listening To Virus "Experts" Has Led To Death & Despair
  Ron Paul Rages: Listening To Virus “Experts” Has Led To Death & Despair
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 05/18/2020 – 22:05

  Authored by Ron Paul via The Ron Paul Institute for Peace & Prosperity,

  On April 21st the Washington Post savaged Georgia governor Brian Kemp’s decision to begin opening his state after locking down for weeks. “Georgia leads the race to become America’s No. 1 Death Destination,” sneered the headline.

  The author, liberal pundit Dana Milbank, actually found the possibility of Georgians dying to be hilarious, suggesting that, “as a promotion, Georgia could offer ventilators to the first 100 hotel guests to register.”

  Milbank, who is obviously still getting paid while millions are out of work, sees his job as pushing the mainstream narrative that we must remain in fear and never question what “experts” like Dr. Fauci tell us.

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  Well it’s been three weeks since Milbank’s attack on Georgia and its governor, predicting widespread death which he found humorous. His predictions are about as worthless as his character. Not only has Georgia not seen “coronavirus…burn through Georgia like nothing has since William Tecumseh Sherman,” as Milbank laughed, but Covid cases, hospitalizations, and deaths have seen a steep decline since the governor began opening the state.

  Maybe getting out in the fresh air and sunshine should not have been prohibited in the first place!

  In fact, as we now have much more data, it is becoming increasingly clear that the US states and the countries that locked down the tightest also suffered the highest death rates. Ultra locked-down Italy suffered 495 Covid deaths per million while relatively non-locked down South Korea suffered only five deaths per million. The same is true in the US, where non lockdown states like South Dakota were relatively untouched by the virus while authoritarian-led Michigan, New York, and California have been hardest hit.

  In those hardest hit states, we are now seeing that most of the deaths occurred in senior care facilities – after the governors ordered patients sick with Covid to leave the hospitals and return to their facilities. There, they infected their fellow residents who were most likely to have the multiple co-morbidities and advanced age that turned the virus into a death sentence. Will these governors be made to answer for this callous disregard for life?

  Yesterday, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar admitted the obvious:

  “We are seeing that in places that are opening, we’re not seeing this spike in cases.”

  So why not open everything? Because these petty tyrants cannot stand the idea of losing the ability to push people around.

  Shutting down the entire United States over a virus that looks to be less deadly than an average flu virus – particularly among those under 80 who are not already sick – has resulted in mass unemployment and economic destruction. More Americans may die from the wrong-headed efforts to fight the virus than from the virus itself.

  Americans should pause and reflect on the lies they are being sold. Masks are just a form of psychological manipulation. Many reputable physicians and scientists have said they are worthless and potentially harmful. Lockdowns are meant to condition people to obey without question.

  A nation of people who just do what they are told by the “experts” without question is a nation ripe for a descent into total tyranny.

  This is no empty warning – it’s backed up by history. Time to stand up to all the petty tyrants from our hometowns to Washington DC. It is time to reclaim our freedom.

  

• Majority On Wall Street Expects Stocks Lower In 3 Months, Braces For Second Virus Wave
  Majority On Wall Street Expects Stocks Lower In 3 Months, Braces For Second Virus Wave
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 05/18/2020 – 21:45

  Between May 13 -15th, Deutsche Bank conducted its seventh monthly market sentiment survey covering 450 market professionals across the world, in which questions emphasized the covid-19 pandemic around the working from home (WFH) experience as well as also people’s thoughts on the duration of this pandemic, and how that will impact various parts of their lives as well as how market expectations have evolved.

  In terms of WFH it seems that more people are getting comfortable with this being a more regular feature post covid relative to last month. 57% (39% last month) think they’ll do 1-3 days per week WFH in a post-covid world. Those thinking they’ll only do it when they need to has dropped to 31% from 47% last month.

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  According to DB’s Jim Reid, “this reflects an improvement in productivity in month two of shutdowns. We’ve seen the net balance of more productive vs less productive WFH increase from -13% to +7%. The amount who claim to be as productive or more productive WFH has gone up from 58% to 69%.” This may reflect IT departments getting more able to handle the vast increase in traffic and end users ensuring their set-up has improved. However, 31% say they are less productive WFH (42% last month), so it’s not for everyone.

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  The survey reveals an age bias: under 34 year olds were net -5% more productive at home. For 35-44yrs this was flat (0%). For 45-55 yr olds (+19%) and over 55 yr old (+15%) the pendulum swings to them being more productive. This is perhaps a reflection of younger people more likely to live in smaller city flats with less space for an optimum set up. They may also require more mentoring and guidance to thrive. The answer may also be skewed to whether people have young kids at home at the moment? Interestingly across all ages the answer “I am far less productive at home” only received 2-5%. I am “far more productive” saw answers of 12-18% across the ages.

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  The under 34-year-olds are also the one group most likely to review where they live as a result of covid-19 but on balance they are just about net (+1%) happy with where they live. The older we get, though, the less likely we are to reconsider where we live due to the virus with this peaking forv45-55 year olds (-25%). Urban dwellers of all ages are neutral on balance (0%) as to whether covid-19 will make them assess where they live. Suburban (-22%) and Rural (-46%) dwellers are far less inclined to review where they live post covid-19 though.

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  In terms of the virus, people are generally optimistic (74%) on a vaccine being available within 18 months even if only 5% think within six months. Only 4% think that we’ll never see one. 48% think social distancing will only last for the next 6 months with a further 30% thinking an extra 6 months on top.

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  A net 55% agree with Lloyd Blankfein that there will be a second wave of the virus and a net 58% agree with shielding the elderly and those with underlying conditions and trying to restart the economy prior to a vaccine being available. Unsurprisingly a net 67% of under 34 year olds agreed with this compared to a net 24% for over 55 year olds.

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  Some good news: in month two of lockdown it seems people are getting healthier relative to month one. Exercise is up on pre-covid levels now with +12% doing more than they were pre-lockdown (-1% balance last month) and whilst alcohol consumption is up (+6%), it’s less than it was last month (+12%). People are still eating more food (+20% balance) but it’s less than last month (+27%).

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  Moving to our more markets-based questions, people still think the covid crisis will be inflationary (47% to 40%) but this has narrowed relative to last month (53% to 32%).

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  Now that there are seven months’ worth of data on S&P 500 expectations, Jim Reid was able to see how net expectations measure matches up with market performance through the survey history period. 3-month expectations were closely aligned with price action into the market decline during March but seem to not have caught the rebound through April and so far in May. 12-month expectations had been roughly the inverse, but we have seen long-term expectations roll over this month along with the short-term views.

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  Given the recent rally in equities and lack of improving economic data in Europe and the US, sentiment has gotten more bearish in the last month, especially in the short term. A majority (42%) see equity prices slightly lower over the next 3 months for the S&P 500 and Stoxx 600, before improving over the next 12 months. However, it is the lowest net higher expectation for the S&P 500 since February as ‘only’ 13% on balance believe the index will be higher a year from now, down from 47% two months ago as the crisis was causing the first big dip in markets. Respondents were torn on 12 month expectations for the Stoxx 600, with an equal number thinking the index would be higher or lower.

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  With Treasury yields near all-time lows and further conversations over negative US rates (even as they are opposed by the Fed), expectations lean toward US core rates falling further over the next 3 months (37% vs 17% to rise) but then rising again over 12 months (45% rise against 28% lower). Similarly bund yields are expected to fall by 28% of respondents over 3 months (14% rise), but over 12 months, 38% expect a rise against only 23% expecting further falls.

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  There continue to be fairly strong expectations that Italian yields to bunds will widen over the next 3 and 12 months. Net 34% expect wider spreads in 3 months, the most one-sided that short term expectations have been in 5 months of asking. Meanwhile, a net 26% expect wider in 12 months. In terms of Italy being in the Eurozone in 5 years, 14% think it won’t be, which is up from 7% when first asked back in November last year. The budgetary pandemic shock is certainly knocking confidence on this measure.

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  Finally, with the US election just under 6 months away, a net of 23% believe President Trump will receive a second term, though respondents continue to become steadily more bearish on his re-election chances. Our survey has always heavily favored Trump’s electoral chances but more and more doubts are emerging. The economic fallout of covid-19 and the country’s lingering and sizeable case numbers seem to have dulled any polling bounce Mr. Trump received at the beginning of the outbreak. This is the lowest that respondents have thought his re-election was “extremely likely”. This is now at 14%, having peaked at 63% in February.

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• "This Is Not A Costless Exercise" – The Unintended Consequences Of Monetary Inflation
  “This Is Not A Costless Exercise” – The Unintended Consequences Of Monetary Inflation
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 05/18/2020 – 21:25

  Authored by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com,

  “In short, the Fed is committed to rescue businesses from the greatest economic catastrophe since the great depression and probably even greater than that, to fund the US Government’s rocketing budget deficits, fund the maintenance of domestic consumption directly or indirectly through the US Treasury, while pumping up financial markets to achieve these objectives and preserve the illusion of national wealth.

  Clearly, we stand on the threshold of an unprecedented monetary expansion.”

  Introduction

  President Reagan memorably said that the nine words you don’t want to hear are “I’m from the government and I’m here to help.” Governments in all the major jurisdictions are now making good on that unwanted promise and are taking responsibility for everything from our shoulders.

  Those receiving subsidies and loan guarantees are no doubt grateful, though they probably see it as the government’s duty and their right. But someone has to pay for it. In the past, by the redistribution of wealth through taxes it meant that the haves were taxed to give financial support to the have-nots, at least that was the story. Today, through monetary debasement nearly everyone benefits from monetary redistribution.

  This is not a costless exercise. Governments are no longer robbing Peter to pay Paul, they are robbing Peter to pay Peter as well. You would think this is widely understood, but the Peters are so distracted by the apparent benefits they might or might not get that they don’t see the cost. They fail to appreciate that printing money is not just the marginal source of finance for excess government spending, but it has now become mainstream.

  There is almost a total absence in the established media of any commentary on the consequences of monetary inflation, and in a cry for more we even have financial experts warning us of a deflationary collapse and the need for the Fed to introduce negative interest rates to stave off deflation. Yes, there are deflationary forces, because banks wish to reduce their loan exposure at a time of increasing risk. But we can be sure central banks and their political masters will do everything they can to counter the trend of contracting bank credit by increasing base money. There can only be one outcome: the debasement and eventual destruction of fiat currencies.

  It was the nineteenth century French economist, Frederic Bastiat, who pointed out there were unseen consequences from violating property. He took the biblical approach of a parable, famous as the broken window fallacy. It is not what is seen, but what is unseen. He told of a boy breaking a window, its destruction giving business to the glazier which he would not otherwise have had. That is seen; unseen is the constructive spending that otherwise would have occurred if the cost of the broken window had not been incurred.

  We see the helicoptered money, the furlough support, and the businesses helped not to go bust. But we do not see the cost. We don’t see how the resources taken up might otherwise be constructively deployed. We are told that the government is paying for it all, but taxes are not being raised.

  Was Reagan’s aphorism wrong after all? If so, the government employee on our doorstep with his offer of help is to be welcomed. He comes bearing gifts. And without an increase in taxes what is not to like?

  Bastiat gave us the answer. Unfortunately, the unseen consequences of apparently costless inflationary financing are myriad, as we will painfully discover.

  The Cantillon effect

  Over a century before Bastiat, an Irish banker in France, Richard Cantillon, observed that new money drove up prices as it was spent. He had experienced John Law’s Mississippi bubble, which was fueled by printed money and the issuance of bank credit, so Cantillon had observed the effect. It made well-connected speculators their fortunes, whose profligate spending drove up prices for everyone else. The effect at that time was that in real terms insiders became rich and the poor got poorer. To this day the process by which this happens is known as the Cantillon effect.

  Now that it is official policy, the lesson for today is that a rapid increase in monetary inflation will, as the effects trickle through the economy, further impoverish the poor. It will do this by driving up prices of their essentials and reducing the purchasing power of their salaries, if they are lucky enough to still be employed. But as Cantillon pointed out in his Essai, reflecting the increased quantity of circulating money prices rise unevenly. Never has it been truer than today, when we face the combination of an unprecedented slump in economic activity combined with a sharp escalation in monetary inflation: the rich whose stocks are rising can buy their expensive toys at knockdown prices, while the poor, increasing numbers of which are newly unemployed, struggle to make ends meet with rising prices for life’s essentials.

  It gets worse. Just as in Cantillon’s day, modern monetary policy is aimed at maintaining and increasing financial asset values. John Law’s puffery attempted to inflate the combination of his Banque Royale and his Mississippi ventures. Today it is all government bond markets, corporate debt, and stocks and shares. The intention is to maintain and further a wealth effect to replace the true wealth that has been lost, originally accumulated by entrepreneurs and businessman serving the consumer successfully. All we have now is John Law-style puffery.

  The enrichment of the few at the expense of the many is a finite process. The outcome will inevitably be the same: Law’s scheme began to run into headwinds in December 1719, and by the following September his unbacked currency had failed. It was dead, worthless, an ex-currency. The empirical evidence is clear. Central banks emulating Law’s scheme today will destroy their currencies and everything that floats on their seas of paper credit and debt. The rapidity of the collapse of the Mississippi scheme strongly suggests that once control over bond prices is lost the contemporary financial and monetary collapse will be similarly swift.

  For this reason, understanding the consequences of monetary inflation spiralling out of control has never been more important. We should know what they are from a study of sound economic theory and empirical evidence. The poor will starve and many of those who became rich through financial asset inflation will eventually join them. For the latter class, there will come a point where they abandon a failing dollar-based inflation scheme to save what they can from the financial wreckage.

  Distortions and misallocations of capital

  There is an aspect of the destruction brought about by monetary policy, which is almost never considered by policy makers, and that is how it distorts the allocation of capital and leads to its misallocation. In free markets, capital is scarce and must be used to greatest effect if the consumer is to be properly served and the entrepreneur is to maximise his profits.

  Capital comes in several forms and encompasses every aspect of production; principally an establishment, machinery, labour, semi-manufactured goods and commodities to be processed, and money. An establishment, such as a factory or offices, and the availability of labour are relatively fixed in their capacity. Depending on their deployment and capacity they produce a limited amount of goods. It is just the one form of capital, that is money and credit, which central banks and the banking system now provide, and which in its unbacked form is infinitely flexible. Consequently, attempts to stimulate production by monetary means run into the capacity constraints of the other forms of capital.

  Monetary policy has been increasingly used to manipulate capital allocation since the early days of the great depression in the 1930s. The effect has varied but it has generally come up against the constraints of the other forms of capital. Where there is excess labour, it takes time to retrain it with the specialist skills required, a process hampered by trade unions ostensibly protecting their members, but in reality, resisting reallocation of labour resources. Government control over planning and increasingly stifling regulations, again putting a brake on change, meant that changes and additions to the use of establishments lengthen the time before entrepreneurial investment was rewarded with profits. Government intervention has also discouraged the withdrawal of monetary capital from unprofitable deployment, or malinvestments, lengthening recessions needlessly.

  When the advanced nations had strong industrial cores, the periodic expansions of credit and their subsequent sudden contractions led to observable booms and busts in the classical sense, since production of labour-intensive consumer goods dominated production overall.

  There were then two further developments. The first was the abandonment of the Bretton Woods agreement in 1971, which led to a substantial rise in prices for commodities. According to the broad-based UN index of commodities rose from 33 to 157 during the decade, a rise of 376%. This input category of production capital compared unfavourably with US consumer price increases over the decade of 112%, the mismatch between these and other categories of capital allocation making economic calculation a fruitless exercise. The second development was the liberation of financial controls in the mid-eighties, London’s big-bang and the repeal of America’s Glass Steagall Act of 1933, allowing commercial banks to fully embrace and exploit investment banking activities.

  The banking cartel increasingly directed its ability to create credit towards purely financial activities mainly for their own books, thereby financing financial speculation, while de-emphasising bank credit expansion for production purposes for all but the larger corporations. Partly in response, the nineties saw businesses move production to low-cost centres in South-East Asia where all forms of production capital, with the exception of monetary capital, were significantly cheaper and more flexible.

  There then commenced a quarter-century of expansion of international trade replacing much of the domestic production of goods in the US, the UK, and Europe. It was these events that denuded America of its manufacturing, not unfair competition as President Trump has alleged and Germany’s retention of manufactures proves. But the effect has been to radically alter how we should interpret the effects of monetary expansion on the US economy and others, compared with Hayekian triangles and the like.

  Business cycle research had assumed a capitalistic structure of savers saving and thereby making monetary capital available to entrepreneurs. Changes in the propensity to save sent contrary signals to businesses about the propensity to consume, which caused them to alter their production plans. Based on the ratio between consumer spending and savings, this analytic model has been corrupted by the state and its licensed banks by replacing savers with former savers now no longer saving, and even borrowing to consume.

  Today, the inflationary origins of investment funds for business development are hidden through financial intermediation by venture capital funds, quasi-government funds and others. Being mandatory, pension funds continue to invest savings, but their beneficiaries have abandoned voluntary saving and run up debts, so even pension funds are not entirely free of monetary inflation. Insurance funds alone appear to be comprised of genuine savings within an inflationary system.

  Other than pension funds and insurance companies, Keynes’s wish for the euthanasia of the saver has been achieved. He went on to suggest there would be a time “when we might aim in practice… at an increase in the volume of capital until it ceases to be scarce, so that the functionless investor will no longer receive a bonus…”

  Now that everywhere bank deposits pay no interest, his wish has been granted, but Keynes did not foresee the unintended consequences of his inflationist policies which are now being visited upon us. Among other errors, he failed to adequately account for the limitation of non-monetary forms of capital, which leads to bottlenecks and rising prices as monetary expansion proceeds.

  The unintended consequences of neo-Keynesian policy failures are shortly to be exposed. The checks and balances on the formation and deployment of monetary capital in the free market system based on the division of labour have been completely destroyed and replaced by inflation. So, where do you take us from here, Mr Powell, Mr Bailey, Ms Lagarde, Mr Kuroda?

  Taking stock

  We can now say that America, the nation responsible for the world’s reserve currency, has encouraged policies which have turned its economy from being a producer of goods with supporting services as the source of its citizens’ wealth into little more than a financial casino. The virtues of saving and thrift have been replaced by profligate spending funded by debt. Unprofitable businesses are being supported until the hoped-for return of easier times, which are now gone.

  Cash and bank deposits (checking accounts and savings deposits) are created almost entirely by inflation, and currently total $15.2 trillion in the US, while total commercial bank capital is a little under $2 trillion. This tells us crudely that $13 trillion sitting in customer accounts can be attributed to bank credit inflation. Increasing proportions of those customers are financial corporations and foreign entities, and not consumers maintaining cash and savings balances.

  On the other side of bank balance sheets is consumer debt, mostly off-balance sheet, but ultimately funded on-balance sheet. Excluding mortgages, the total comprised of credit cards, autos and student debt was $3.86 trillion in mid-2019, amounting to an average debt of $27,571 per household, confirming the extent to which consumer debt has replaced savings.

  At $20.5 trillion, bank balance sheets are far larger than just the sum of cash and bank deposits, giving them a leverage of over ten times their equity. Bankers will be very nervous of the current economic situation, aware that loan and other losses of only ten per cent wipes out their capital. Meanwhile, their corporate customers are either shut down, which means most of their expenses continue while they have no income, or they are suffering payment disruptions in their supply chains. In short, bank loan books are staring at disaster. Effectively, the whole banking system is underwater at the same time as the Fed is extolling them to join with it in rescuing the economy by expanding their balance sheets even more.

  The sums involved in supply chains are considerably larger than the US’s GDP. Onshore, it is a substantial part of the nation’s gross output, which captures supply chain payments at roughly $38 trillion. Overseas, there is a further mammoth figure feeding into the dollar supply chain, taking the total for America to perhaps $50 trillion. The Fed is backstopping the foreign element through currency swaps and the domestic element mainly through the commercial banking system. And it is indirectly funding government attempts to support consumers who are in the hole for that $27,571 on average per household.

  In short, the Fed is committed to rescue all business from the greatest economic collapse since the great depression, and probably greater than that, to fund the US Government’s rocketing budget deficits, fund the maintenance of domestic consumption directly or indirectly through the US Treasury, while pumping financial markets to achieve these objectives and preserve the illusion of national wealth.

  Clearly, we stand on the threshold of an unprecedented monetary expansion. Part of it will be, John Law style, to ensure inflated prices for US Treasuries are maintained. At current interest rates debt servicing was already costing the US Government 40% of what was expected to be this year’s government deficit. That bill will now rise beyond control even without bond yields rising. Assistance is also being provided to the corporate debt market. Blackrock has been deputed to channel the Fed’s money-printed investment through ETFs specialising in this market. So not only is the Fed underwriting the rapidly expanding US Treasury market, but it is underwriting commercial dollar debt as well.

  In late-1929, a rally in the stock market was prolonged by a similar stimulus, with banks committed to buying stocks and the Fed injecting $100m liquidity into markets by buying government securities. Interest rates were cut. And when these attempts at maintaining asset prices failed, the Dow declined, losing 89% of its value from September 1929.

  Today, similar attempts to rescue economies and financial markets by monetary expansion are common to all major central banks, with the possible exception of the ECB, which faces the unexpected obstacle of a challenge by the German Constitutional Court claiming primacy in these matters. There is therefore an added risk that the global inflation scheme will unravel in Europe, which if it does will rapidly lead to funding and banking crises for the spendthrift member states. Doubtless, any financial contagion will require yet more money-printing by the other major central banks to ensure there are no bank failures in their domains.

  Whither the exit?

  So far, few commentators have grasped the implications of what amounts to the total nationalisation of the American economy by monetary means. They have only witnessed the start of it, with the Fed’s balance sheet reflecting the earliest stages of the new inflation which has seen its balance sheet increase by 61% so far this year. Not only will the Fed battle to fund everything, but it will also have to compensate for contracting bank credit, which we know stands at about $18 trillion.

  The Fed must be assuming the banks will cooperate and pass on the required liquidity to save the economy. Besides the monetary and operational hurdles such a policy faces, it cannot expect the banks will want responsibility for the management of businesses that without this funding would not exist. The Fed, or some other government agency has to then decide one of three broad options: further support, withdrawing support, or taking responsibility for business activities. This last option involves full nationalisation.

  We must not be seduced into thinking this is an outcome that can work. The nationalisation of failing banks and their eventual privatisation is not a good precedent for wider nationalisation, because a bank does not require the entrepreneurial flair to estimate future consumer demand and to undertake the economic calculations to provide for it. The state taking over business activities fails for this reason, demonstrated by the collapse of totalitarian states such as the USSR and the China of Mao Zedong.

  That leaves a stark choice between indefinite monetary support or pulling the rug from under failing businesses. There are no prizes for guessing that pulling rugs will be strongly resisted. Therefore, government support for failing businesses is set to continue indefinitely.

  At some stage, the dawning realisation that central banks and their governments are steering into this economic cul-de-sac will undermine government bond yields, despite attempts by central banks to stop it, even if the deteriorating outlook for fiat currencies’ purchasing power does not destroy government finances first.

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  Earlier in the descent into the socialisation of money, nations had opportunities to change course. Unfortunately, they had neither the knowledge nor the guts to divine and implement a return to free markets and sound money. Those opportunities no longer exist and there can be only one outcome: the total destruction of fiat currencies accompanied by all the hardships that go with it.

  

• "Bumper Tables" For Socially-Distant Dining Appear In Maryland
  “Bumper Tables” For Socially-Distant Dining Appear In Maryland
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 05/18/2020 – 21:05

  Vistors are headed back to Ocean City, Maryland’s beach and boardwalk after Gov. Larry Hogan relaxes the stay-at-home order. At one restaurant over the weekend, a post-corona world was recognized with what is being called a socially distant dining experience, reported The Baltimore Sun.

  Shaped like a giant donut with an outer perimeter lined with an inner tube, the socially distant tables were custom made for Fish Tales waterfront restaurant. The restaurant posted a Facebook Live video of employees unloading the new tables from a large box truck. 

  “It’s like a bumper boat, but it’s a table,” Fish Tales owner Shawn Harmon told Delmarva Daily Times, referring to the design of the table, which was created by a Baltimore-based design firm. 

  A customer stands in the center of the table surrounded by a rubber barrier that keeps patrons about six-feet apart. The tables have wheels and allow patrons to move around the restaurant. 

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  Several months of lockdowns have led to restaurants and bars shuttering operations across Maryland — except for carryout and delivery service. The state inched into phase one of its Roadmap to Recovery, dining in could become a reality later this year, that is if a second virus wave doesn’t materialize. 

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  Fish Tales is providing curbside and carryout service at the moment, with preparations to reopen its restaurant and bar when restrictions are lifted. 

  This restaurant in Maryland intends to use bumper tables to keep customers six feet apart once it begins to take seated diners. pic.twitter.com/ReCLbzcowF

  — CBS News (@CBSNews) May 18, 2020

  Erin Cermak, the owner of Revolution, the firm responsible for designing and producing the tables, said: “we’re an event company, and events have taken a hard hit, so we’ve been trying to figure out a way that events and things can still happen.” 

  She said they’ve gotten an “incredible reaction” so far and are in discussions with other restaurants. 

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  Hogan made the announcement last week to relax stay-at-home orders and reopen the state. Though reopening the state will not return Maryland nor any other part of the country back to 2019 growth levels. Businesses and households have been finally damaged because of lockdowns. 

  Current US reopening timeline 

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  At least a quarter of restaurants in the US are expected to fail. Many that remain open will have to develop creative technologies with social distancing in mind to attract patrons. 

  We noted last week, McDonald’s opened a prototype restaurant outfitted with a new social distancing layout. The move is to test new safety measures for guests and employees that will limit the spread of the virus once lockdowns are relaxed. 

  The restaurant industry will be severely impacted and might not return to 2019 activity levels for years. 

  

• Nasdaq Imposes Restrictions On Chinese IPOs, Halting Futures Rally
  Nasdaq Imposes Restrictions On Chinese IPOs, Halting Futures Rally
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 05/18/2020 – 21:00

  In a move that anyone who has ever invested in a Chinese fraud stock (which one can argue are most of them) will argue is long overdue, late on Monday Reuters reported that the Nasdaq is set to unveil new restrictions on initial public offerings, in a move that will make it more difficult for some Chinese companies to debut on its stock exchange.

  While Nasdaq will not cite Chinese companies specifically in the changes, according to Reuters, the move is being driven by concerns about some of the Chinese IPO hopefuls’ lack of accounting transparency and close ties to powerful insiders.

  And since the Nasdaq move, which may well be prompted by legitimate widespread concerns about shady Chinese accounting, comes just days after the Trump administration barred a government retirement fund from investing in Chinese equities, it will be seen by Beijing as another political intervention in soft capital controls imposed by the US vis-a-vis Chinese equities, inviting further retaliation from China against this “latest flashpoint in the financial relationship between the world’s two largest economies.”

  Nasdaq also unveiled some restrictions on listings last year, seeking to curb IPOs by small Chinese companies. Their shares often trade thinly because most stay in the hands of a few insiders. Their low liquidity makes them unattractive to many large institutional investors, to whom Nasdaq is seeking to cater.

  Whatever the reason behind the move, it has been a long time coming, considering the ease with which countless Chinese frauds are allowed to list in the US and soak up capital of gullible US investors. Last month, Luckin Coffee which had a U.S. IPO in early 2019, announced that an internal investigation had shown its chief operating officer and other employees fabricated sales deals.

  The new rules will require companies from some countries, including China, to raise $25 million in their IPO or, alternatively, at least a quarter of their post-listing market capitalization, the Reuters sources said. This would represent the first time Nasdaq has put a minimum value on the size of IPOs. The change would have prevented several Chinese companies currently listed on the Nasdaq from going public. Out of 155 Chinese companies that listed on Nasdaq since 2000, 40 grossed IPO proceeds below $25 million, according to Refinitiv data. 

  And while it was not immediately clear how many of these IPOs were Chinese, Reuters notes that Chinese firms have historically pursued such small IPOs because they allow their founders and backers to cash out, rewarding them with U.S. dollars they cannot easily access because of China’s capital controls. And they have US bagholders, and lax exchange listing standards to thank. At the same time, these newly IPOed frauds would also use their Nasdaq-listed status to convince lenders in China to fund them and often get subsidies from Chinese local authorities for becoming publicly traded.

  Finally, the proposed rules will also require auditing firms to ensure that their international franchises comply with global standards, and Nasdaq will also inspect the auditing of small U.S. firms that audit the accounts of Chinese IPO hopefuls, the sources added.

  The news of the restriction hit S&P futures – which were on their way to regaining the 2950 handle that had failed twice – slid to session lows below the key resistance level on a day when there was no talk of trade war, and instead the market was obsessing over what in retrospect will end up being one giant “Made in the US” bait-and-switch by Moderna, which sold $1.25BN in stock after soaring earlier in the day on news of a “successful” Phase 1 coronavirus vaccine trial which involved eight “young and healthy” people.

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  Meanwhile, ahead of the Nasdaq news and perhaps sensing what was coming, China has been urging domestic companies to look at listing in London, Reuters also reported earlier in the day, as the country aims to revive deals under a Stock Connect scheme and strengthen overseas ties in the wake of the coronavirus crisis.

  The Shanghai-London Stock Connect scheme, which began operating last year, aims to build links between Britain and China, help Chinese companies expand their investor base and give mainland investors access to UK-listed companies.

  The original plan was for several companies to take part in the scheme in the first couple of years, but so far only one company — Huatai Securities — made the trip from Shanghai to London last June.

  But now Chinese authorities have given the go-ahead for China Pacific Insurance and SDIC Power to move ahead with their London-listing plans, the sources said, after both deals were halted last year.

  They also gave the nod to China Yangtze Power (600900.SS) to begin preparations for a secondary listing on the London Stock Exchange, the sources said, speaking on condition of anonymity as the matter is confidential.

  The sources, including officials from banks, government and exchanges, said that the aim was to push for a resumption of listings under the Stock Connect scheme as China seeks to improve ties with the outside world and help to fund its post-lockdown recovery. “In the second half of this year, we could see one or maybe two Chinese companies list in London,” said one of the sources, who is closely involved in the process.

  “China is among the first countries to come out of lockdown, and is keen to get back on track with plans to improve trade relations with the UK,” he added, by which he of course meant finding more gullible, naive investors to part with their money after investing in the next Chinese Luckin-like fraud, especially if the US window is closing.

  

• The Revenge Of "Bobo The Clown"? How The Media Is Inadvertently Reelecting Donald Trump
  The Revenge Of “Bobo The Clown”? How The Media Is Inadvertently Reelecting Donald Trump
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 05/18/2020 – 20:45

  Authored by Jonathan Turley,

  Various media outlets are struggling with recent polls that not only show President Trump at the same popularity as this time last year but actually rising in states like Ohio. When one poll found him leading by 7 points in battleground states, John King cautioned viewers to “be careful not to invest too much in any one poll” especially amid the coronavirus.

  It was a CNN poll and, while Biden leads in other polls, it is not unique.

  The media seems honestly confused. It was not supposed to work this way. With unrelentingly negative coverage of an impeachment, a pandemic, and an economic collapse, voters were supposed to be angry. There is even a psychological model for such social cognitive learning or conditioning called “Bobo the Clown” and, while this experiment by psychologist Albert Bandura, these polls suggest that conditioning does not work nearly as well in politics as it does on playgrounds.

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  In 1961, Bandura used a goofy inflatable clown named Bobo and had children watch adults as they acted aggressively toward it. Soon the children followed the adults’ example and beat the clown. Conversely, when children watched the clown being treated without aggression, they were less aggressive toward it.

  For many voters, Donald Trump and Joe Biden are not so funny clowns, and voters are being conditioned by some in the media to treat one aggressively and the other not aggressively. It is not the first attempt at media conditioning: In 2016, when every poll indicated that voters wanted outsider candidates, Democratic leaders pushed through one of the two most unpopular presidential candidates in history, Hillary Clinton.

  She was beaten by the other most unpopular figure on the Republican side, Trump. Yet, after largely positive treatment of Clinton and correspondingly negative coverage of Trump, the election results stunned experts who predicted an easy win for Clinton — and why not? Voters had been exposed to unyielding, continual media conditioning against Trump.

  The conclusion of the media today appears to be that the scathing treatment in 2016 was not aggressive enough. Trump is routinely called an actual clown by some in the media. More importantly, there are now consistent attacks on Trump supporters. Washington Post “conservative columnist” Jennifer Rubin has declared that Trump supporters as a whole are racists. That common stereotyping of Trump supporters is uncontested, even as the media objects to Trump’s generalizations about other groups.

  Columnist Leonard Pitts wrote a recent column entitled, “No, it’s not the economy, stupid. Trump supporters fear a black and brown America.” The narrative has moved beyond Clinton’s description of Trump supporters as a “basket of deplorables” to now portraying all Trump supporters as open racists. “Make America Great Again” hats are denounced by academics as the symbol of “modern day hitlerjugend” and hate speech.

  It is all part of media-cognitive learning, and it is working in a curious way. Recent polls show Trump at the exact same spot as he was last year, with roughly 43 percent support. In Ohio he actually is ahead by 3 percentage points in a survey from Emerson College and Nexstar Media; he and Biden are in a statistical dead heat in Wisconsin. In other words, as in 2016, the media campaign is forcing Trump supporters into the closet, but not away from Trump.

  Meanwhile, the media has been working hard at non-aggressive treatment of Biden. His frequent gaffes are quickly dismissed; when he was accused of sexual assault, the media reluctantly noted the story. Even when Biden recently espoused a conspiracy theory that Trump was going to halt the November election, the media called it a “prediction” and ignored that it was based on a fundamental misunderstanding of the Constitution.

  At the end of last year, the Media Research Center found that network evening news was 96 percent negative against Trump. The drumbeat has only increased with impeachment and pandemic coverage this year. Despite such saturated messaging, polls show that the number of voters expressing strong “enthusiasm” for Biden is wallowing at just 24 percent, while Trump remains at 53 percent. Biden is just 3 points ahead of Trump in the most recent polls, actually behind where Clinton was in 2016. The reason may be that the anti-Trump narrative is so overwhelming that voters feel they are being played like the kids in the Bandura experiment.

  Consider again the recent attack of the Post’s Rubin on most Republicans. Rubin lashed out at the immigration freeze ordered by Trump during the pandemic; however, she was not satisfied with denouncing the policy as a political stunt to appeal to the unemployed. She declared:

  “No doubt Trump’s base is primarily motivated by racism. This is why Trump does this.”

  The statement captures the accepted, unhinged bias against all Trump supporters in the mainstream media.

  I did not vote for Trump, and I have regularly criticized him in columns and blog posts. However, I have watched the stereotyping of Trump supporters at media conferences for years. It suggests that roughly 63 million people in this country who voted for Trump in 2016 are knuckle-dragging racists. It ignores the fact that Hillary Clinton had record negative polling before the nomination and was widely viewed as pathologically inauthentic.

  Recently, polls show 85 percent of Republicans support Trump. Thus, according to Rubin, 85 percent of Republicans (and roughly 10 percent of Democrats and 47 percent of independents) — in other words, almost half of America — are primarily motivated by racism. Does that track with any sense of reality? There are a host of reasons for these voters to support Trump other than racism.

  What is not being discussed much in the media is that people might have non-racist reasons for supporting Trump. The fact is that Trump has a curious record: He has been repeatedly (and correctly) chastised for untrue statements, and yet he has one of the best records for actually keeping campaign promises — the crackdown on immigration, building of the border wall, pro-life policies and appointments, selection of conservative jurists, tax cuts, regulation rollbacks, opening up areas to oil drilling.

  These and many other aspects of his administration are the most controversial but also are the long-held wish list of conservatives going back to Ronald Reagan. Indeed, while 85 percent of Republicans support Trump, a new poll shows that 23 percent would like to see someone else as their nominee. Yet, Rubin and others simply dismiss all Trump supporters as monolithic, pathological racists.

  Thus, polls indicate that the unending attacks on Trump and his supporters in the media are not conditioning but, instead, are repelling voters. They are fulfilling his narrative that voters cannot trust the media. Many voters may still view both Trump and Biden as over-inflated clowns, but they resent being continually conditioned to hit one clown and hug the other.

  Indeed, if Trump is reelected, he may have the media to thank.

  

• The Oil Rally Is Running On Fumes
  The Oil Rally Is Running On Fumes
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 05/18/2020 – 20:38

  Submitted by Nick Cunningham at Oilprice.com

  Oil prices have surged to two-month highs on growing signs of a rebound in oil demand, as the easing of lockdowns spread worldwide. At its peak in April, global lockdown measures affected around 3.9 billion people. But an estimated 3.7 billion people are now living in areas that are experiencing some version of a “reopening,” according to an estimate from Raymond James. 

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  Data from China has stoked some bullishness in oil markets, although there are some mixed signals. Traffic is back in many Chinese cities, and there are early signs that China’s oil demand is rising back close to pre-pandemic levels around 13 million barrels per day (mb/d). 

  At the same time, a new coronavirus cluster in China suddenly sparked another lockdown measure. While Wuhan and other regions may be opening up, roughly 108 million people in Jilin province just went into lockdown. It’s a sign that the fight against COVID-19 will likely be frustrated by repeated flare ups in new cases, which may ultimately lead to renewed lockdowns. 

  But for now, the markets apparently want to focus on the positive. On the global vaccine front, there appears to be some progress. Moderna said on Monday that its vaccine has shown to be safe in humans and has also demonstrated promising results in stopping COVID-19. Meanwhile, AstraZeneca said it could have 30 million doses of its vaccine ready by September.

  Financial equities rejoiced, with the Dow Jones up roughly 3.5 percent during midday trading. WTI surged past $30 per barrel, up at one point on Monday by more than 10 percent. 

  Massive supply cuts go even further in explaining the recent jump in prices. Oil traders view the implementation of the OPEC+ cuts favorably, with the 9.7 mb/d cuts phasing in swiftly. Part of the reason is that some oil producers, including Saudi Arabia, began having difficulty finding a home for its oil, so a portion of the cuts arguably became involuntary. 

  Meanwhile, weeks of catastrophically low oil prices ravaged North American oil producers over the past two months. Shut ins could reach 2 mb/d in the U.S. by June, and Canada could lose 1 mb/d. 

  But a reality check is in order. WTI at $30 per barrel is suddenly seen as “bullish,” but that price level is financially unsustainable for a vast swathe of global oil supply, including most of the U.S. shale complex. 

  Moreover, the physical oil market is not “out of the woods” just yet, according to Rystad Energy. “We still see a 13.7 million bpd implied liquids (crude, condensate, NGLs, others) stock builds in May-20,” the firm said in a statement. That is down by half from the peak of the glut (-26.7 mb/d in inventory builds in April), but a significant overhang remains. 

  Separately, Commerzbank argued that the oil market optimism may be running a little too far. “Despite all the euphoria, however, we believe that caution is still advisable: it will probably take some years before demand recovers to its pre-crisis level,” Commerzbank wrote on Monday.

  U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned that the American economy recovery could take until the end of 2021. “It could stretch through the end of next year. We really don’t know,” Powell said over the weekend. He noted that the economy might not return to normal simply because stay-at-home-orders are in the process of going away. “For the economy to fully recover people will have to be fully confident, and that may have to await the arrival of a vaccine,” Powell added.

  In addition, the price rally may also be the result of speculative positioning – the physical market is trending towards rebalancing, but the rally can also be explained by overly exuberant speculative positioning. “Retail and institutional investors are also likely to have played a key part in the latest price rise. According to the CFTC, the latter expanded their net long positions in WTI on the NYMEX to around 352,000 contracts in the week to 12 May, putting them at their highest level since September 2018,” Commerzbank added. “Thus the positive trends (for the oil price) are largely expected and already priced in.”

  The lockdowns are lifting, but there is nothing to suggest that the end of the pandemic is near, or that oil supply will remain shut in. “[T]here is significant downside risk related to two events, the resurgence in COVID-19 outbreaks, and deteriorating compliance to OPEC+ cuts as demand comes back,” Rystad warned. 

  

• Fearing An Imminent Top, Companies Flood The Market With Stock For Sale After The Close
  Fearing An Imminent Top, Companies Flood The Market With Stock For Sale After The Close
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 05/18/2020 – 20:25

  Last week was remarkable for the capital markets, not because the S&P did something crazy (it actually suffered its biggest weekly drop in months) but because the companies that comprise it appeared to make a collective decision that after its 30% rebound from the March 23 lows, that was as good as it gets and proceeded to flood the market with follow-on and secondary equity offerings.

  As we reported before, in just the first three days of the week, public companies raised more cash from selling shares than in any week in eight years. According to Bloomberg calculations, investment banks conducted no less than 16 secondary offerings on U.S. exchanges in the Monday thru Wednesday interval in stocks such as Zillow, Equinix, MyoKardia, YETI Holdings, and Q2 Holdings Inc. Over that three-day interval, companies raised more than $17 billion from investors, the most since 2012, thanks largely to PNC selling $12.1 billion of its BlackRock shares in the second-largest offering since 2009. That made for the busiest week of 2020.

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  Buyers – mostly retail investors – have been undaunted by warnings from either Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who cautioned about unprecedented downside risk to the economy, from Goldman Sachs which we first reported said stocks could drop nearly 20% in the next three months, or by investing titans who say this is the most overbought market in history. No, these are retail investors who know better than even corporate management…

  “Now’s the time to act. The rally is extremely fragile,” said Michael Purves, CEO of Tallbacken Capital Advisors, who spent 12 years advising companies on mergers and capital-raising. “When you’re a CFO or a board director of a company in a capital intensive industry, you raise money so that you don’t lose your job. That’s 100% the right thing to do now.”

  More importantly, you raise money when you think the top is in so you don’t leave any on the table. Like now… because after last week’s torrid pace of equity offerings, at least thirteen equity offerings launched after the market closed Monday, the busiest evening of 2020 for such deals, as stocks that surged during the Covid-19 crisis thanks to a frenzy of retail buying, are now tapping the same retail investors for more cash, and follow on last week’s furious offering that raised more cash than in any week in eight years.

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  That said, unlike some prior share sales from distressed sectors, Bloomberg notes that almost all of Monday’s deals came from stocks that outperformed since the coronavirus began rattling U.S. markets in late February. Of the thirteen secondary offerings launched so far, all but two have outperformed the Nasdaq Composite Index since March 1.

  Moderna for example, launched the largest of three stock offerings since going public in 2018 after Monday’s 20% rally capped off a more than 300% gain this year on very hasty speculation that the company’s Phase 1 trial which included 8 participants, was supposedly successful when it was, at best, noise.  Fastly also sold shares after rising 69% since May 6, when it boosted its 2020 revenue forecast due to stay-at-home measures.

  Below is a summary of the post-market launches of secondary offerings:

  Avantor (AVTR) 45m shares, trades May 21

  • Bookrunners: Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan
  • Shares -7.0% post-market
  • Seller: Holders

  Bellerophon (BLPH) Shares offered at $13 each

  • Bookrunner: Jefferies
  • Shares -15% post-market
  • Seller: Company

  Cable One (CABO) $400m of shares, trades May 20

  • Bookrunners: JPMorgan, BoFA, Wells Fargo
  • Shares little changed post-market
  • Seller: Company

  Carvana (CVNA) 5m shares at $93-$96

  • Bookrunners: Citi, Wells Fargo
  • Shares -4.8% post-market
  • Seller: Company

  Clovis Oncology (CLVS) $85m of shares at $8.05-$8.50

  • Bookrunners: JPMorgan, BofA
  • Shares -6.9% post-market
  • Seller: Company

  Fastly (FSLY) 6m shares, trades May 21

  • Bookrunners: Morgan Stanley, Citi, BofA, Credit Suisse, William Blair, Raymond James, Baird, Oppenheimer, Stifel, Craig- Hallum, DA Davidson
  • Shares -1.7% post-market
  • Seller: Company

  Gamida Cell (GMDA) Shares offered at $4.50-$5.00

  • Bookrunners: Piper Sandler, Evercore Group, JMP
  • Shares -13% post-market
  • Seller: Company

  Gossamer Bio (GOSS) Shares offered at $13.25- $13.75

  • Bookrunners: BofA, SVB Leerink
  • Shares -11% post- market
  • Seller: Company

  Houlihan Lokey (HLI) 3m shares at $63.50- $64.00

  • Bookrunners: Goldman Sachs
  • Shares -0.8% post-market
  • Seller: Company

  Hexo (HEXO) No terms

  • Bookrunner: Canaccord
  • Shares -12% post-market
  • Seller: Company

  Krystal Biotech (KRYS) Shares offered at $55-$56

  • Bookrunners: Cowen, Evercore
  • Shares -1.2% post- market
  • Seller: Company

  Moderna (MRNA) $1.25b of shares at $75.00- $77.50

  • Bookrunner: Morgan Stanley
  • Shares -3.2% post-market
  • Seller: Company

  RealPage (RP) $300m of shares, trades May 20

  • Bookrunners: Goldman Sachs, BofA Securities, Wells Fargo
  • Shares -3.2% post- market
  • Seller: company
  • Notes: Also offering $300m of convertible bonds

  Source: Bloomberg

  

• The Sun "Has Gone Into Lockdown", And This Strange Behavior Could Worsen Global Food Shortages
  The Sun “Has Gone Into Lockdown”, And This Strange Behavior Could Worsen Global Food Shortages
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 05/18/2020 – 20:05

  Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

  At a time when the world is already being hit with major crisis after major crisis, our sun is behaving in ways that we have never seen before.  For as long as records have been kept, the sun has never been quieter than it has been in 2019 and 2020, and as you will see below we are being warned that we have now entered “a very deep solar minimum”.  Unfortunately, other very deep solar minimums throughout history have corresponded with brutally cold temperatures and horrific global famines, and of course this new solar minimum comes at a time when the United Nations is already warning that we are on the verge of “biblical” famines around the world.  So we better hope that the sun wakes up soon, because the alternative is almost too horrifying to talk about.

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  Without the sun, life on Earth could not exist, and so the fact that it is behaving so weirdly right now should be big news.

  Sadly, most mainstream news outlets are largely ignoring this story, but at least a few are covering it.  The following comes from Forbes…

  While we on Earth suffer from coronavirus, our star—the Sun—is having a lockdown all of its own. Spaceweather.com reports that already there have been 100 days in 2020 when our Sun has displayed zero sunspots.

  That makes 2020 the second consecutive year of a record-setting low number of sunspots— which you can see (a complete absence of) here.

  And here is what the New York Post is saying…

  Our sun has gone into lockdown, which could cause freezing weather, earthquakes and famine, scientists say.

  The sun is currently in a period of “solar minimum,” meaning activity on its surface has fallen dramatically.

  Experts believe we are about to enter the deepest period of sunshine “recession” ever recorded as sunspots have virtually disappeared.

  Yes, covering COVID-19 is important, but the fact that scientists are warning that we are potentially facing “freezing weather, earthquakes and famine” should be deeply alarming for all of us.

  And since the mainstream media has been largely silent on this crisis, most Americans don’t even know that it exists.

  Last year, there were no sunspots at all 77 percent of the time, and so far this year there have been no sunspots at all 76 percent of the time…

  “This is a sign that solar minimum is underway,” reads SpaceWeather.com. “So far this year, the Sun has been blank 76% of the time, a rate surpassed only once before in the Space Age. Last year, 2019, the Sun was blank 77% of the time. Two consecutive years of record-setting spotlessness adds up to a very deep solar minimum, indeed.”

  So why is this such a big deal?

  Well, every once in a while a very deep solar minimum that lasts for several decades comes along, and when our planet has experienced such periods in the past the consequences have been quite dramatic.

  For example, the New York Post is claiming that NASA scientists fear that we could potentially be facing “a repeat of the Dalton Minimum”…

  NASA scientists fear it could be a repeat of the Dalton Minimum, which happened between 1790 and 1830 — leading to periods of brutal cold, crop loss, famine and powerful volcanic eruptions.

  Temperatures plummeted by up to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) over 20 years, devastating the world’s food production.

  Even worse would be a repeat of the Maunder Minimum which stretched from 1645 to 1715.  It came as the globe was already in the midst of “the Little Ice Age”, and it caused harvest failures and famines all over the globe…

  The Maunder Minimum is the most famous cold period of the Little Ice Age. Temperatures plummeted in Europe (Figs. 14.3–14.7), the growing season became shorter by more than a month, the number of snowy days increased from a few to 20–30, the ground froze to several feet, alpine glaciers advanced all over the world, glaciers in the Swiss Alps encroached on farms and buried villages, tree-lines in the Alps dropped, sea ports were blocked by sea ice that surrounded Iceland and Holland for about 20 miles, wine grape harvests diminished, and cereal grain harvests failed, leading to mass famines (Fagan, 2007). The Thames River and canals and rivers of the Netherlands froze over during the winter (Fig. 14.3). The population of Iceland decreased by about half. In parts of China, warm-weather crops that had been grown for centuries were abandoned. In North America, early European settlers experienced exceptionally severe winters.

  Of course this would be an exceptionally bad time for such a cataclysmic climate shift, because African Swine Fever has already wiped out approximately one-fourth of all the pigs in the world, colossal armies of locusts the size of major cities are systematically wiping out crops across much of Africa, the Middle East and Asia, and fear of COVID-19 is greatly disrupting global food supply chains.

  In fact, it is being reported that widespread shutdowns of meat processing facilities in the United States may force farmers to euthanize “as many as 10 million hogs by September”…

  U.S. pork farmers may be forced to euthanize as many as 10 million hogs by September as a result of production-plant shutdowns brought on by the coronavirus pandemic, according to the National Pork Producers Council.

  At least 14,000 reported positive COVID-19 cases have been connected to meatpacking facilities in at least 181 plants in 31 states as of May 13, and at least 54 meatpacking facility workers have died of the virus at 30 plants in 18 states, according to an investigation by the Midwest Center for Investigative reporting.

  Even if the sun suddenly started acting perfectly normal once again, we would still be facing what the UN is calling “the worst humanitarian crisis since World War Two”.

  Global food supplies are getting tighter with each passing day, and many are warning that some areas of the globe will soon be dealing with severe food shortages.

  What we really need are a few years of really good growing weather, but the behavior of the sun may not make that possible.

  So let’s keep a very close eye on the giant ball of fire that we are revolving around, because if it remains very quiet that could mean big trouble for all of us.

  

• Trump To Nominate New US Attorney For Swampy DC Office
  Trump To Nominate New US Attorney For Swampy DC Office
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 05/18/2020 – 19:45

  President Trump says he plans to nominate Justin Herdman to serve as US attorney for Washington DC – which has been at the center of the controversial prosecutions of Trump allies Michael Flynn and Roger Stone.

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  Herdman – currently the US attorney for the Northern District of Ohio, would replace interim US attorney for Washington, Timothy Shea – whose appointment may not exceed 120 days by law and will expire next month, according to The Hill. Herdman’s appointment requires Senate approval. If rejected, the DC District Court will appoint a new interim US attorney until the position is eventually filled. He was confirmed in 2017 by voice vote for his current position.

  Shea, meanwhile, has attracted controversy for his involvement in the DOJ’s request to drop charges against former Trump national security adviser Michael Flynn, as well as seek a lighter sentence for Stone.

  Critics argue that Shea, who previously served as senior counsel to Attorney General William Barr, has been instrumental in the politicization of the DOJ.

  After Shea and other top agency officials overruled career prosecutors earlier this year to request a more lenient sentence for Stone, the entire four-person prosecution team withdrew from the case, a stunning move taken in apparent protest.

  One of those prosecutors, Jonathan Kravis, quit the department entirely. He broke his silence this month to excoriate what he described as political influence over the DOJ after Shea signed a motion to drop criminal charges against Flynn, despite his previously pleading guilty to lying to the FBI. -The Hill

  Meanwhile, career prosecutor Brandon Van Grack – who was involved in securing Flynn’s ‘perjury trap’ plea agreement, withdrew from Flynn’s case without explanation an hour before the DOJ filed to drop the charges, according to the report. While he hasn’t resigned, he has reportedly also withdrawn from other cases.

  

• Hickman: COVID-19 Defies Hyperbole
  Hickman: COVID-19 Defies Hyperbole
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 05/18/2020 – 19:25

  Authored by Hickman via KesslerCompanies.com,

  The economic effects from COVID-19 will be devastating. Stock and asset prices will fall dramatically and will take years to recover. U.S. Treasury yields will turn negative. Sell “risk-on” assets, increase cash, and buy Treasury bonds.

  The U.S., if not the world’s, economy was primed for a serious recession coming into 2020. I argued in an article published on January 13 that, based on economic indicators, a U.S. recession would begin sometime before the end of 2020 and likely by March. In this context, COVID-19 was just the catalyst (albeit, a transcendent one) that tipped the world into it. Pandemic or not, the world was oversupplied and due to flush-out bad debt, weak companies and inequality. It only needed a push. China hadn’t had a recession in 42 years (since modern records have been kept in 1978), Australia in 28 years, and the U.S. in 10 years. Creative destruction had been waiting a long time.

  And what a push it was. Just 10 days later (on January 23), I wrote an e-mail to my clients with an article from The Washington Post about emerging issues in Wuhan saying, “I get the sense that this is a bigger story than we are aware of.” In the ensuing months, COVID-19 has become everything.

  The health side of the story is bad enough, but the economic one is worse. The combined economic effects of the global simultaneous lock-down, nine or more months of social distancing/rolling lock-down until a potential vaccine/treatment is available (the “90% Economy” as The Economist has termed it), as well as the normal deleveraging side of the business cycle (the “knock-on” effects or mentality change that usually is the recession) make for an economic contraction that will be deep (severe), wide (pervasive), and long (time).

  And yet, stock markets are pricing a quick return to normal. It won’t happen. We are still in the first (dare I say, “denial”) stage; something akin to the spring of 1930 when the stock market had rallied back to be down just 19% from the 09/03/1929 peak. I suspect there are many years and chapters of COVID-19 yet to come.

  At the same time, it isn’t the end of the world. If one can appreciate how it works, there are investments that will do well; but just a few.

  The virus is going to be here for a while

  Many prominent people and publications are saying serious things about this virus’ severity and duration:

  • Bill Gates, “It is impossible to overstate the pain that people are feeling now and will continue to feel for years to come.” 4/23/2020

  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel, “We are not living in the final phase of the pandemic, but still at the beginning.” 4/23/2020

  • CDC Director Robert Redfield, “There’s a possibility that the assault of the virus on our nation next winter will actually be even more difficult than the one we just went through.” 4/21/2020

  • WHO Special Envoy David Nabarro, “We think it’s going to be a virus that stalks the human race for quite a long time to come until we can all have a vaccine to protect us…” 4/12/2020

  • Former CDC Director, Tom Frieden, “As bad as this has been so far, we’re just at the beginning.” 5/7/2020

  • New York Magazine, “The FDA has never approved a vaccine for humans that is effective against any member of the coronavirus family, which includes SARS, MERS, and several that cause the common cold.” 4/20/2020

  A vaccine requires several steps past finding the right formula. Once a promising discovery is made, there is animal testing, human testing, dose finding, regulatory approval, large-scale production, distribution and the issue of who pays for it. You cannot inject all humans with something until there is relative certainty it is not going to have adverse effects. Experts seem to agree that this cannot be done faster than nine months. Under the best case scenario, the world will be forced into the “90% economy” until sometime in 2021.

  COVID-19 is still mysterious to scientists. It has several phenomena that make it problematic:

  • Contagious without symptoms;

  • A relatively long incubation period;

  • Symptoms throughout the body (i.e., blood clotting, COVID toe, organ failure);

  • Unknown immunity duration after recovery; and

  • Uneven virulence across strains, the population, and within an infection.

  COVID-19 hit the developed world first; presumably in places where there is greater international travel. And because of that, most developed nations are now seeing a plateau or decrease in new infections (in the first wave at least). But seemingly, many developing economies are just starting their first wave. Developing economies generate the lion’s share of global GDP (estimated to be 60-70%) and thus have a large impact on the developed world.

  The economic picture is serious

  • The economic damage already done from the lock-down as well as the idea that the world was near to a recession will result in a secular change in spending mentality that favors saving over spending.

  • Beyond lock-downs, the social distancing required until a potential vaccine is available has direct ramifications to economic activity. Gatherings with less density imply less demand for goods and services. Common examples are flights with empty middle seats or stadiums half-filled. Social distancing policies will enforce less economic output until a vaccine can be found and distributed broadly.

  • Economic data releases have been “off the charts” bad but dismissed by investors as aberrations. And as yet economists are increasingly clear that even if the economy has already bottomed (I doubt it), it will be a years-long recovery back. But the stock market is priced for a V-shaped recovery (more on this below). Investors are imagining that the new infections curve (of a given country) to be inversely correlated to its economic curve. As the new infections rate falls, the economy will come back in the same proportion. But the economic indicators are “off the charts” in the same proportion to how severe this incident is. In other words, they are real numbers and they are commensurately scary.

  • In any past recession, there were geographical areas or industries that were somewhat unaffected and could mitigate the heavily affected areas. In this case, whole aspects of the global economy were turned off simultaneously in a very specialized and optimized (“just-in-time”) global economy. Also, unlike older historical pandemics when it took days or weeks for news to travel, humanity knew about it at the same time, changing our economic behavior (a little or a lot) all at once. This is unprecedented in human history.

  • With reduced tax revenue, U.S. state, local, and municipal governments are struggling and will likely need a stimulus package of their own. If this is happening in the United States, imagine the fiscal crises that will strike less wealthy economies.

  • Countries that have not locked down (Sweden) or countries well on the other side of the infections curve (South Korea, China) are showing depressed economies even without the lock-down.

  • With the U.S. unemployment rate at 14.7%, the Taylor Rule implies the Fed funds rate should be less than minus -6% to be stimulating the economy. If the unemployment rate were to rise to 25% in May (per Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on 05/10/2020), the Taylor Rule would suggest the Fed funds rate should be below minus -16% to be stimulative. I’m not suggesting the Fed will get to these levels, but it illustrates the scale of the crisis.

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  Several others have stern warnings about the economic severity of COVID-19:

  • Chairman and CEO of BlackRock Larry Fink, surreptitiously, “Mass bankruptcies, empty planes, cautious consumers and an increase in the corporate tax rate to as high as 29% were part of a vision Fink sketched out on a call this week.” 05/06/2020

  • Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari, “Large banks are eager to be part of the solution to the coronavirus crisis. The most patriotic thing they could do today would be to stop paying dividends and raise equity capital, to ensure they can endure a deep economic downturn.” 4/16/2020

  • Sam Zell, “Sam Zell, the billionaire known for buying up troubled real estate, said the coronavirus pandemic will leave the same kind of impact on the economy and society as the Great Depression 80 years ago, with long-lasting changes in human behavior that imperil many business models.” 05/05/2020

  • Nouriel Roubini, “The Coming Greater Depression of the 2020s,” 04/28/2020

  • Warren Buffett “I don’t know that three, four years from now people will fly as many passenger miles as they did last year.” 05/02/2020

  • Scott Minerd, CIO of Guggenheim Investments, “To think that the economy is going to reaccelerate in the third quarter in a V-shaped recovery to the level where gross domestic product (GDP) was prior to the pandemic is unrealistic. Four years from now the economy will most likely recover to the same level of activity that it was in January.” 4/26/2020

  • Historian Niall Ferguson, “It will take much longer than people assume for the economy to recover.” 05/06/2020

  Global stock markets will fall to new lows

  Prominent publications have come out with specific warnings about the stock market:

  • The Economist, “A one-month bear market scarcely seems enough time to absorb all the possible bad news from the pandemic and the huge uncertainty it has created. This stock market drama has a few more acts yet.”

  • Financial Times, “Equities generally are still priced for a near-perfect bounce-back from the coronavirus crisis. Lockdowns may last longer than planned. Exits may prove bumpier. Hopes that the virus can be eradicated quickly, and a second wave of infections avoided, may be proven wrong. A quick rebound to the status quo ante looks increasingly implausible. Amid so many unknowns, a further market correction looks more than likely.”

  Despite it seeming as though the Federal Reserve and Treasury have spent infinite amounts of money to prop things up, it is still less than the money lost. In a general sense, if the stimulus funds were as big as the problem, economic indicators wouldn’t be weakening. Politicians never accidentally make people more than whole (in the aggregate). No matter how much liquidity there is, stocks are still ultimately beholden to corporate earnings.

  The stock market is fundamentally expensive. The price earnings ratio (trailing) of the S&P 500 is near 20. Prices will need to come down a great deal before stocks look secularly attractive. They will have to come down even further if earnings weaken materially. Multi-decade secular bull markets have begun when these ratios are below 10 (see chart below).

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  This is a big enough demand shock (an economic “earthquake”) that virtually any company (U.S. or international) will struggle for years. Even after the virus and economy improve, paying the huge public debt bills that economies have amassed will become the focus. Higher taxes will ultimately weigh on profitability for decades. There will be exceptions (say Clorox or Netflix, so far), but the majority will struggle.

  Because COVID-19 has only been known for four months (really just three, as the markets are concerned), investors can still imagine a V-shaped recovery.

  The chart below puts the U.S. stock market’s (S&P 500) performance from its recent peak in the context of past major bear markets. In this view, things have only begun. For instance, in the Great Depression, it took nearly three years from the peak to the trough. We are just four months into this.

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  The stock markets went down through alternating waves of hopes (prices higher) and fears (prices lower). There will be many chapters to COVID-19. We are in the first one.

  The table below shows all of the bear-market rallies greater than 10% in the cycles identified above. There were several strong rallies. The average length of those rallies was about two months (1.8). The current rally has lasted a very similar 1.2 months (assuming 04/29/2020 was the peak).

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  What to invest in?

  There is nothing wrong with cash. Today, we call money not being invested “cash,” but at one time, it was just called “savings.” The importance of savings is that the money is there more than it is growing. Japan has rediscovered this dynamic in the last 30 years. Despite cash earning nothing (and it won’t again for years), if you are in cash and the stock market falls, you get to buy it back cheaper. Having cash gives an investor the freedom to invest in opportunities as they arise and be the “buyer” in a buyer’s market. Don’t think you have to invest all your money to be productive.

  U.S. Treasury bonds will appreciate. They appreciate in price when yields fall and depreciate when yields rise. The more that yields move lower, the more that prices move higher. As an example, if the current 30-year Treasury’s yield were to drop from where it currently yields 1.33% (5/15/2020), to 0.75%, this bond would appreciate by 15%. If it dropped to a zero yield, it would appreciate 40%. These aren’t small returns. But bond prices decrease in the same proportion if rates were to rise.

  As has already happened in Japan and Germany, U.S. Treasury interest rates will fall well below zero as this crisis intensifies. This is why:

  • Deflation will be the theme of the “90% economy” because it implies a 90% price. Meaning that if the economy is expected to operate 10% lower than before, supply and demand would suggest that prices (inflation) would be 10% lower too. I am not suggesting a one-time drop of 10%, but rather that there will be tremendous pressure towards lower prices (in aggregate that-is; individual sectors may have higher prices). But, it isn’t just the initial shock, there will continue to be deflationary pressure as long as the output gap is negative. That is going to take years and years to close. Deflation implies lower Treasury yields, because if prices are deflating at say 5% per year, a minus 4% yield on a Treasury would be valuable (as saving 1% over the alternative). Because of this, there is no limit to how negative Treasury rates can go, they are a function of inflation/deflation.

  • Given the scale of COVID-19, the Fed (and other developed economy central banks) will need to cut short-term rates deeply negative. This will pull all Treasury yields lower. I can already hear the chorus of arguments (“it hasn’t worked!”, “it creates a liquidity trap!”, “it creates hyperinflation!”) Yes, there will be tremendous resistance, but a threshold exists where the importance of protecting an industry (money market managers, banking) will pale in comparison to the economic needs of the whole country. In other words, there is a point where the Fed will alienate creditors at-large for the bigger picture. There are two prominent voices calling for negative rates so far (below), but I suspect these voices will grow in number:

  Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University Ken Rogoff, “…the Fed could push most short-term interest rates across the economy to near or below zero. Europe and Japan already have tiptoed into negative rate territory. Suppose central banks pushed back against today’s flight into government debt by going further, cutting short-term policy rates to, say, -3% or lower.” 5/4/2020

  Former President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank, Naranya Kocherlakota, “Unprecedented situations require unprecedented actions. That’s why the U.S. Federal Reserve should fight a rapidly deepening recession by taking interest rates below zero for the first time ever.” 4/24/2020

  • But “yield curve control” is the Fed’s next-biggest tool and I suspect it will be used before negative rates because it is more palatable to the banking and money-market industries. “Yield curve control” is a fancy way of saying that the Fed could control longer-term interest rates like they do with short-term rates. Japan is currently doing it and the U.S. did it in the 1950s. The idea is to force term rates down to, or below, a certain threshold to encourage lending. For instance, the Fed could target the 10-year Treasury yield to be 0.25% and ensure it by committing to buy enough 10-year Treasury bonds to take it there. “Committing” is the key word because if the central bank is credible enough, it doesn’t always have prove it with real capital; the threat is enough for the market to take it there. Assuming the mortgage market was functioning normally, it could help get mortgage rates down to 1%. Anyone with a mortgage can imagine how helpful that would be.

  • Some worry that the amount of stimulus the U.S. is spending will lead to hyper-inflation or equivalently, a weakened currency. The fiscal/monetary picture of the U.S. isn’t as extreme as it is made to be. Japan’s finances are a useful example of how far a super-power’s credit stretches. On almost any dimension, Japan’s finances are in worse shape than in the US, and yet their 10-year yield is 0.00% (see table below). Credit risk should show up first in Japan before we would see it in the U.S. They are the canary in the coal mine on this issue.

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  All of these things combined portend a continuing U.S. Treasury bull market (lower yields) for a few more years.

  Then, once everyone has given up on the stock market and P/E ratios are in the single digits, it will be time to buy stocks.

  COVID-19 is the equivalent of a 300-year flood. It will be the theme of financial markets for an enduring horizon.

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  Eric Hickman (hickman@kesslercompanies.com) is president of Kessler Investment Advisors, Inc., an advisory firm located in Denver, Colorado specializing in U.S. Treasury bonds.